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Gulf Distubance 91L More Organized, Headed Towards Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

Tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico has gotten more organized over the past day, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly their first mission of 2013 this afternoon to see if the storm is becoming a tropical depression. Buoy 42003 near the heaviest thunderstorms of 91L measured sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 41 mph this morning at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops show a lopsided storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of a center of circulation that is trying to develop at the edge of a region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is due to a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, by Thursday, and 91L is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. NHC is giving the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. I put these odds higher, at 60%. If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. A swath from Florida to New England can expect 2 - 4" of rain. A few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible along the northern Florida Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is predicted for Cedar Key, Florida, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens.

The storm is getting caught up in a trough of low pressure that will pull it quickly to the north-northeast beginning on Thursday, with the center expected to move over coastal North Carolina on Friday afternoon, and over Massachusetts on Friday night. If 91L does manage to become a tropical storm before making landfall on Thursday, it will quickly degenerate into a regular extratropical low pressure system before moving up the East Coast.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending June 12, 2013 from the NWS/NCEP. A swath of 2 - 4" of rain is expected from Florida to New England from 91L.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting ncstorm:


THE only model..how bout give it up for it..yall gone learn..


Keep in mind that this was the model that was forecasting a storm within 60 hours on Sunday... It did a banged up job, I'll give credit to the GFS. It sniffed out the situation, eventually got it right...
Quoting DataNerd:
This thing is going to be a nightmare mess for the eastcoast. Going right through places effected by sandy. Fun.


It's just a little rain lol
1003. sar2401
Quoting DataNerd:
Watch out florida TS warnings up already. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKNEE
RIVER


Tampa certainly covered every square mile of their warning area with that warning.
Quoting Ameister12:
NHC is forecasting Andrea to peak at 45mph. I think it may get a little stronger than that. 50mph, 60 at most.

Im thinking 50 to 60 mph.
1005. JLPR2
Quoting TylerStanfield:

No


Never say never when it comes to meteorology, crazier things have happened. The correct answer would be that it is unlikely. Always leave it open for the possibility.
Quoting AztecCe:
So how's this thing going to affect us in NC?


The projected track has it scraping its way up the entire east coast, but for affects, rain and winds about 35-45 mph, locally higher in t-storms.
1008. beell
Inspection of the extrapolated surface pressures from recon might indicate they did not initially find the lowest pressure. Pressure field seems to be lower to the NE of the initial fix.

Could still be a bit of an oblong surface low-slanted SW to NE.

ADDED: But it does seemed to have dropped a mb or 3.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KBIX)
Disseminated Through: Keesler AFB, backup for KNHC (TPC/NHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 21:54Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 21:39:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2510'N 8634'W (25.1667N 86.5667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 303 miles (488 km) to the W (278) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 25kts (~ 28.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NW (305) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 35 at 28kts (From the NE at ~ 32.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22C (72F) at a pressure alt. of 244m (801ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24C (75F) at a pressure alt. of 274m (899ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24C (75F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) in the quadrant at 0:66
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 066/45 19:43:00Z
998. AztecCe 10:04 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
So how's this thing going to affect us in NC?


TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
1011. sar2401
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Keep in mind that this was the model that was forecasting a storm within 60 hours on Sunday... It did a banged up job, I'll give credit to the GFS. It sniffed out the situation, eventually got it right...

Actually, the BAMM has been by far the best with path up to now.
Quoting SLU:


The wave has continued to develop today and deserves recognition. I agree.


My thoughts too.
You guys??? Cantore called this 4 hours ago, but NO ONE ran with it... SAD!!!!
The CMC deserve some love to it perform mostly consistently as well
Quoting JLPR2:


Never say never when it comes to meteorology, crazier things have happened. The correct answer would be that it is unlikely. Always leave it open for the possibility.

Yeah. But think about it... A Category 1 Hurricane. Andrea would need to have a closed eyewall, and do so in 24 hours... I agree crazier things have happened, but its sheared, lopsided, and only has a limited time. Highly Unlikely ;)

 
Yep its offical.
Quoting Civicane49:
60 to 65mph my peak for Andrea.
Shows to be a Trop Stm during the whole path???
In other news tension on the blog is reaching record new heights for this early in the season. /s

Seems like we have our first tropical system. I am not expecting it to get past 50knts. Rain should be limited to the east side of the system as dry air is inhibiting any thunderstorm activity and should for a good while. The storm should make landfall somewhere near Cedar Key give or take a 100 miles. Then go up the east coast. This should not be too significant as the rain most likely be over the water. Of course this could all change rapidly and if Andrea is able to pull convection on the west side impacts could be a good bit more severe via flooding.
Quoting sar2401:

Actually, the BAMM has been by far the best with path up to now.

Im not talking about track. Im talking about the development of Andrea. The GFS sniffed this pattern out, and showed a developing system... It got it wrong for awhile, but it eventually got it. :)
Quoting DRaficionado:


My thoughts too.
Same here.
Getting ready for the first named system of the season here on the west coast of Florida. I'm expecting probably 5 to 6 inches of rain and a tornado threat and gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph with stronger gusts in deep convective cores.

Although if a strong bands set up due to coastal convergence, pockets of 10 could occur in spots near the coast along with stronger winds.

Basically, this will be like Debby but widespread amounts will likely not be 10 to 15 inches because Debby stalled and barely moved as it impacted Florida. Andrea will be moving along.


Despite this, again, coastal convergence could setup repetitive banding on the west coast of Florida leading to areas of much heavier rain and locally severe weather like with Debby.

The Tampa Bay area tends to be a spot where coastal convergence sets up strongly with approaching gulf systems because it sticks out so the onshore flow tends to converge with easterly winds off land areas.


I live only a few miles from the Pinellas beaches, so if anyone from around here is interested, I'll be headed out there tomorrow after work! :)



Bottom line is, Andrea will be much more beneficial than harmful to Florida. Yes there could pockets of wind damage from stronger cells that move onshore in stronger bands, and super cells could develop and spawn a couple tornadoes. However, we get similar severe weather throughout the rainy season anyway.
1023. sar2401
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Im thinking 50 to 60 mph.

Wait. The highest winds found at the surface were 25 knots. A forecast of 40 knots with gusts to 50 seems more than generous. Are people getting all excited about flight level winds or what?
Quoting Civicane49:
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
600 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
FOUND A CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
LARGE MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED
VERY RECENTLY SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN.
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002
MB...PEAK 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT...AND BELIEVABLE
BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT. THESE DATA
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH...EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

ANDREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...THEN
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
THEY ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF JUMPS OR REFORMATIONS OF THE
CENTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS EXPECTED.
AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THERE WILL BE SOME
BAROCLINIC FORCING BY THAT TIME...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHEN ANDREA
WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ANDREA REMAINING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THE TRANSITION TO A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD OCCUR SOONER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS FROM ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE PRONUNCIATION OF THIS NAME IS ANN- DREE UH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2200Z 25.3N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 26.5N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 28.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/1800Z 34.5N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1800Z 43.0N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 45.0N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z 47.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


a little humor at the NHC I see...
Quoting allancalderini:
60 to 65mph my peak for Andrea.


I think Andrea should peak at least 50 mph or 60 mph.
Quoting allancalderini:
60 to 65mph my peak for Andrea.

These types of storms typically cap off at 60 Mph, but that intensity isnt too far from reachable.
1027. JLPR2
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Yeah. But think about it... A Category 1 Hurricane. Andrea would need to have a closed eyewall, and do so in 24 hours... I agree crazier things have happened, but its sheared, lopsided, and only has a limited time. Highly Unlikely ;)


Almost impossible, yet not impossible. Ah, meteorology and uncertainty go together. XD
So far there is good agreement in the blog that Andrea will peak at 50-60mph.
I'll stick with the lower end and say 50mph max.
Just got back from the store. Bought some AA batteries. I'm all set. Bring it on Andrea.
The wave in the CATL is feeding in a lot of energy from the ITCZ. Very impressive for this time of year. The African Monsoon is very active this year. as Im seeing several more wave getting ready to exit onto the Atlantic taking out some of the SAL dry air.
Quoting sar2401:

Wait. The highest winds found at the surface were 25 knots. A forecast of 40 knots with gusts to 50 seems more than generous. Are people getting all excited about flight level winds or what?

No... Im watching recon right now... 50 mph is definitely reachable by this storm, dont understand why youre putting this away as it cant do any better.
Recon just found a 48mph reading. It's not listed as contaminated and rain rates were low but it doesn't match up that well with flight level winds so I don't know.
Quoting Ricki13th:
The CMC deserve some love to it perform mostly consistently as well


Wonder if they did some tweaking on the program. Maybe CMC will elevate it's status among the super models.

Hello every one. How concrete is the current track. Because I was planning to go to gulf breeze Florida this weekend tracking from gulf coast ms.
I think she will peak before landfall, unlike a few southern Fl. storms that actually did the opposite!
1038. sar2401
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Im not talking about track. Im talking about the development of Andrea. The GFS sniffed this pattern out, and showed a developing system... It got it wrong for awhile, but it eventually got it. :)

If I'm not mistaken, the GFS has found lows practically everywhere in the western hemisphere. There were 14 alone on yesterday's model. If I can put out a model covered in lows, there's an excellent chance one of them will be right.
Models shifted South, Cone is a little north than the consensus.

Quoting westFLtropics:


a little humor at the NHC I see...


No, someone probably saw TWC mis-pronouncing it over and over and over again. Like I did. I have a friend with the name, and I can confirm the NHC way is how you say it.
D-Max should be interesting.
Oh man I forgot just how fast the blog moves when a storm is active. Was updating Wikipedia and the blog count skyrocketed over 100 posts.
Andrea pressure has only lower since it was first Renumbered.
I definately see a 50mph storm. I needs to get more convection around the center to go to the next level 60mph.
Quoting Autistic2:
I think she will peak before landfall, unlike a few southern Fl. storms that actually did the opposite!
Fay was a weird one. I doubt we will see anything quite like her again...or at least for a while.
1046. bappit
Quoting westFLtropics:


a little humor at the NHC I see...

THE PRONUNCIATION OF THIS NAME IS ANN- DREE UH.

Clean out the cat box.
Quoting sar2401:

If I'm not mistaken, the GFS has found lows practically everywhere in the western hemisphere. There were 14 alone on yesterday's model. If I can put out a model covered in lows, there's an excellent chance one of them will be right.

Im talking of the forecasts its made over the past month... *Facepalm* Just forget it.
Quoting westFLtropics:


a little humor at the NHC I see...
I think they're just trying to make sure people use the intended female pronunciation instead of one of the name's variants, such as AHN-DRAY'-UH or AHN'-DREE-UH or or ANN'-DREE, or AHN'-DREE (the last rhymes with "laundry").
1049. sar2401
Quoting lurkersince2008:

Hello every one. How concrete is the current track. Because I was planning to go to gulf breeze Florida this weekend tracking from gulf coast ms.

About as firm as wet concrete poured with no forms. :-) Are you actually planning on chasing this thing? I hope you get some good videos of downed tree limbs and backed up culverts.
Quoting bryanfromkyleTX:
You guys??? Cantore called this 4 hours ago, but NO ONE ran with it... SAD!!!!


Well, nobody could find anything to back you up on that claim that Cantore said that. He hadn't tweeted at that time for over 20 hours and I don't think he was even at work today...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh man I forgot just how fast the blog moves when a storm is active.


Nice icon. Nice tribute to Tim and his team.
Quoting Jedkins01:

Bottom line is, Andrea will be much more beneficial than harmful to Florida. Yes there could pockets of wind damage from stronger cells that move onshore in stronger bands, and super cells could develop and spawn a couple tornadoes. However, we get similar severe weather throughout the rainy season anyway.


Jedkins, I am trying to figure out the timeframe and it looks to me like it will be passing our way during the afternoon commute tomorrow. Am I reading this wrong? I really don't want to drive 40 miles home in a tropical storm!
Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Models shifted South, Cone is a little north than the consensus.



Looks like the tropical watch on my side will extend a little further south than flagler if NHC shifts the cone to reflect the models.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Recon just found a 48mph reading. It's not listed as contaminated and rain rates were low but it doesn't match up that well with flight level winds so I don't know.

Sar2401. Point made.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh man I forgot just how fast the blog moves when a storm is active.


Did you do something else and find 200 new comments waiting for you TA upon your return?
Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Models shifted South, Cone is a little north than the consensus.



Hurricane center agreeing on the BAMM model since its been outperform the others. However, the cone will get readjustments.
If we see Andrea fire some convection during DMAX on the west side things could get interesting. I do not see it happening though with the air being so dry and shear not helping either. Seems to be the key for Andrea to get stronger though.
1058. ncstorm
Quoting sar2401:

If I'm not mistaken, the GFS has found lows practically everywhere in the western hemisphere. There were 14 alone on yesterday's model. If I can put out a model covered in lows, there's an excellent chance one of them will be right.


the GFS got the pattern recognition right but even I gave up on formation..I just stuck with the CMC and it did excellent in my opinion..now remember the CMC did have a hurricane with this system..never know..
1059. HCW

Please

A link or refresher on what diurnal maximum and minimum do again.
Let the games begin!

(click to enlarge)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh man I forgot just how fast the blog moves when a storm is active. Was updating Wikipedia and the blog count skyrocketed over 100 posts.


Is it this article for Wiki

Link
1064. JNTenne
Why settle for standard boring SST maps when you can have a GEOSTROPHIC VELOCITY WITH DYNAMIC SSH maps!?



She is not the best TS we have seen but all of the convection is displaced (typical of a sheered system) towards the Florida Peninsula, like Debby....Gonna be big flood issue for low lying areas with poor drainage. Folks needs to start thinking about getting/making sandbags today or tomorrow am at the latest if you experienced these issues from Debby.
1066. ncstorm
updated WPC precip map..sure do miss Allan's page for those extra maps..I might go ahead and pay for the subscription..

1067. barbamz



Congratulation to the first born child, refering to the "list of unborn innocence" here:
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/hurricanes/2013/
Quoting Astrometeor:


Well, nobody could find anything to back you up on that claim that Cantore said that. He hadn't tweeted at that time for over 20 hours and I don't think he was even at work today...



Considering he had literally no scientific evidence to go on actually he looks like a jackass.


And is. Circulation only closed in the last 3 hours or so. Had, for whatever reason, this not happened he would simply be a public jackass instead of a closet jackass.

But its not the first time the sensationalism of television has dominated. Wait until the first major hurricane they will exploit the crap out of people.
Quoting Ricki13th:


Hurricane center agreeing on the BAMM model since its been outperform the others. However, the cone will get readjustments.




I Think a landfall near Tampa is plausible if it continues to deepen.
My NOAA weather radio just went off. As if I didn't know.
Will the wave be mentioned at the 8 PM EDT TWO? IMO I think at least it deserves a 10%.
Quoting JNTenne:
Why settle for standard boring SST maps when you can have a GEOSTROPHIC VELOCITY WITH DYNAMIC SSH maps!?






Because I didn't know I could get those. Ty for showing me that.
1073. beell
Quoting sar2401:

If I'm not mistaken, the GFS has found lows practically everywhere in the western hemisphere. There were 14 alone on yesterday's model. If I can put out a model covered in lows, there's an excellent chance one of them will be right.


Which plot was that?
Quoting Jedkins01:
Getting ready for the first named system of the season here on the west coast of Florida. I'm expecting probably 5 to 6 inches of rain and a tornado threat and gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph with stronger gusts in deep convective cores.

Although if a strong bands set up due to coastal convergence, pockets of 10 could occur in spots near the coast along with stronger winds.

Basically, this will be like Debby but widespread amounts will likely not be 10 to 15 inches because Debby stalled and barely moved as it impacted Florida. Andrea will be moving along.


Despite this, again, coastal convergence could setup repetitive banding on the west coast of Florida leading to areas of much heavier rain and locally severe weather like with Debby.

The Tampa Bay area tends to be a spot where coastal convergence sets up strongly with approaching gulf systems because it sticks out so the onshore flow tends to converge with easterly winds off land areas.


I live only a few miles from the Pinellas beaches, so if anyone from around here is interested, I'll be headed out there tomorrow after work! :)



Bottom line is, Andrea will be much more beneficial than harmful to Florida. Yes there could pockets of wind damage from stronger cells that move onshore in stronger bands, and super cells could develop and spawn a couple tornadoes. However, we get similar severe weather throughout the rainy season anyway.


Also, Andrea is going to accelerate over the next 24-48 hrs as opposed to other early season storms. This system is acting a little more like a late season storm. In fact, although we are under a TS Watch here in Charleston, we are expecting very minimal impacts, especially if the track shifts a little further east. Andrea is a very "east loaded" system and based on the speed, it will be out of here by late Friday and very little impact, if any, for the northeast and areas that were impacted by Sandy.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Will the wave be mentioned at the 8 PM EDT TWO? IMO I think at least it deserves a 10%.



Given the model situation with it possibly.
Try not to focus on the center of the cone, by the time the center reaches the coast the worst will already be inland. Tomorrow night-Friday morning will be the worst of it.
Quoting FIUStormChaser:




I Think a landfall near Tampa is plausible if it continues to deepen.


Exactly what Ive been saying! Probably as a 50mph
Quoting cyclonekid:
Let the games begin!

(click to enlarge)

What kind of Software/program do you use for your graphics?
Been asking around the blog trying access if and what I want to get as a graphics program.
as of 6:30 our local mets say its going into the big bend not tampa and daytona orlando will get 1 to 2 invhes of rain tommorow..... that no worse then the daily t storms we get everyday here
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh man I forgot just how fast the blog moves when a storm is active. Was updating Wikipedia and the blog count skyrocketed over 100 posts.


Who does the season summary maps?
Andrea..becoming a hurricane...

From a guy called Futuremet

Diurnal maximum and minimum. During the day it is diurnal minimum over water because, the surrounding air has less specific heat capacity than the sea,and thus warms faster, but cools down faster during the night. During the night time, the water is typically warmer than the surrounding air. Now the air near the surface which is in contact with the water warms by conduction, and then begin to rise. The during the day, the warming of the air which is above the water creates a quasi-capping inversion, inhibiting convection. Keep in mind that air rises from the surface to the higher levels, so when the air warmer than the sea during the day, it acts as a lid.
If the NHC feels festive about the official start of cane season maybe they will give the blog a gift and bring out the yellow crayon for the Central Atlantic Wave.
1085. trey33
Hi everyone..... starting early this year!
just a 24 hour rainy day tommorow nothing crazy at all they even said not much wond either just plain ol rainy day
Quoting Ricki13th:
If the NHC feels festive about the official start of cane season maybe they will give the blog a gift and bring out the yellow crayon for the Central Atlantic Wave.


If only! been eyeing that one since it left Africa... would like to see it surrounded by yellow at least for a day :) Very strong shear ahead of it though
1088. barbamz
Quoting Ricki13th:
If the NHC feels festive about the official start of cane season maybe they will give the blog a gift and bring out the yellow crayon for the Central Atlantic Wave.


The wave:
Quoting mikatnight:


Dorian's the one I'm worried about. My wife's son. A real mixer.
Andrea Doria(n) was a bad bad mix years ago.
Recon Heading Home.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Andrea..becoming a hurricane...



:D Crow will be served to all if this becomes a hurricane.


Quoting ncstorm:
updated WPC precip map..sure do miss Allan's page for those extra maps..I might go ahead and pay for the subscription..



WOW! In my Jasoniscoolman voice.
Sandrea?
Quoting mikatnight:


Who does the season summary maps?

A multitude of different users. I would if I took the time to install it.
Quoting GTcooliebai:


:D Crow will be served to all if this becomes a hurricane.




WOW! In my Jasoniscoolman voice.


And the new model runs have shifted southeast some :)
Quoting Ameister12:
So far there is good agreement in the blog that Andrea will peak at 50-60mph.


Yes,models are strengthening the storm a little more I think 50 mph to 60 mph is not rule out!
Quoting barbamz:


The wave:
The wave is developing against all odds, deserves at least a 10% Invest, at this hour. Maybe for the short term...
Quoting Civicane49:


Interesting to see the TVCN a right outlier. That is typically one of the NHC's crutches.
Quoting stormchaser19:


Yes,models are strengthening the storm a little more I think 50 mph to 60 mph is not rule out!


StormTrackerScott will be pleased his prediction panned out, especially if it gets to 60 mph...
Quoting wxgeek723:
Sandrea?
Don't do this to us :).
So I come back from swim practice and we have Andrea. Any naysayers want to pass the crow? ;)
Quoting Jedkins01:


And the new model runs have shifted southeast some :)
no they havent at all still pointing at big brnf area and actually a little more north
I think invest 92 will get numbered today or tomorrow.
they will be lifting the watches and warning from naples up to just north of tamps at 8pm they said as this pathetic storm continues moving north overnight
Quoting tropicfreak:
So I come back from swim practice and we have Andrea. Any naysayers want to pass the crow? ;)
Sure you'll be lucky if there is a wing left and where is Taz and Grothar?
05/2045 UTC 25.3N 86.9W T1.0/1.0 ANDREA -- Atlantic
Quoting TylerStanfield:

What kind of Software/program do you use for your graphics?
Been asking around the blog trying access if and what I want to get as a graphics program.


I use PowerPoint. It takes a lot of time to do graphics like this. ESPECIALLY with all the watches and warnings.
Do ya'll think we will have invest 92L tonight.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Sure you'll be lucky if there is a wing left and where is Taz and Grothar?




i got my on life other to be on here on the blog all day
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Sure you'll be lucky if there is a wing left and where is Taz and Grothar?


I've seen Taz around, but Gro is MIA. Probably right about 25.3°N 86.5°W, mixin' it up...
oh no ANDREA going up the E coast here comes sandy part 2
Quoting cyclonekid:


I use PowerPoint. It takes a lot of time to do graphics like this. ESPECIALLY with all the watches and warnings.

BS. No way! That's amazing! That's awesome...

You have some skills with powerpoint my friend.
1112. K8eCane
Well, I wasnt expecting to see the projected path right over my head. I been thru FAR worse storms than this one will be
He has ANOTHER handle.Not to worry


Next mission...11:45 PM EDT tonight...

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 07/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0401A CYCLONE
C. 07/0345Z
D. 29.3N 83.7W
E. 07/0530 TO 07/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Glad I did not take any bets, some other people ought to be eating crow right now.
Andrea looks like she is going to ride the coastline which means most of us near the East Coast will probably get the dry side.
I go away for a much needed nap for two hours or so and come back to find hundreds of new comments. I figured we had Andrea before I even checked NHC.
Quoting Tazmanian:




i got my on life other to be on here on the blog all day


Dude, you're a rock star...
Quoting wxchaser97:
I go away for a much needed nap for two hours or so and come back to find hundreds of new comments. I figured we had Andrea before I even checked NHC.

:)
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at2013 01_ensmodel.gif
The Hurricane
Have a great evening everyone. I had a lot of fun tracking Andrea. Thanks to all who post the Recon data. Hope to track more in the future. See yall later.
1122. wpb
cmc nailed it 5 days ago.
Actually, we got lucky (Northen Gulf Coast) that the coc did not form further to the West; nice big warm pool/eddy in the Northen Gulf right now due South of LA/AL/Florida Panhandle that could have provided a nice burst of energy as it crossed assuming that sheer would have also cooperated.

As it stands, sheer and dry air entrainment will keep her in check and a 50-60 mph TS at landfall is a good bet.
Looks like Andrea will venture my way here in Henando County,FL. Flying out of Tampa on Friday around noon.Hopefully no issues with getting out.
1125. xcool
sandy overhyped imo
1126. centex
Best radar loop?
1128. flcanes
Welp. I come back from dinner and we have Andrea folks.
Have at the intensity/track
1129. flcanes
Quoting centex:
Best radar loop?

dont know
Quoting Tazmanian:




i got my on life other to be on here on the blog all day
Oh ok no harm no foul I just was wondering because you are usually on here when we have tropical activity, as soon as I made that post you came on, lol.
Quoting robintampabay:
Looks like Andrea will venture my way here in Henando County,FL. Flying out of Tampa on Friday around noon.Hopefully no issues with getting out.


You must be near me in Spring Hill, Rob. Have you been getting a lot of rain?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Oh ok no harm no foul I just was wondering because you are usually on here when we have tropical activity, as soon as I made that post you came on, lol.




LOL
Quoting washingtonian115:
Andrea..becoming a hurricane...

Even though I agree Andrea will not become a hurricane there is always a possibility that she might remember that just today many thought that it will not be name.
With the NHC storm path, am I correct that central FL (Orlando area) will be drier come the weekend?
We live in S FL and will be heading to Orlando Friday night for the weekend. Hoping for clear(er) skies!!!!

Thanks
1135. trey33
Quoting Tazmanian:




LOL


Hi Taz
Hope all was well with you during the off season
Quoting weatherwart:


You must be near me in Spring Hill, Rob. Have you been getting a lot of rain?




Yes, I live in Pristine Place, got some rain, none since I got home from down in Tampa.
1137. flcanes
Quoting allancalderini:
Even though I agree Andrea will not become a hurricane there is always a possibility that she might remember that just today many thought that it will not be name.

Erm, yes, but nhc gives it a 5% chance of becoming one before landfall
Spring Hill fl. here
Be safe everyone!
1139. flcanes
Quoting newportrinative:
With the NHC storm path, am I correct that central FL (Orlando area) will be drier come the weekend?
We live in S FL and will be heading to Orlando Friday night for the weekend. Hoping for clear(er) skies!!!!

Thanks

Well, I believe the same high pressure that is pumping dry air into Andrea should move up into the GOM.
Regardless, It's june in florida, so bring those ponchos just in case
man Andrea is not looking too well right now i wounder if it will weakin tonight
1141. barbamz
NOAA To Revive Essential Weather Satellite on Thursday
By Andrew Freedman, published: June 5th, 2013 , Last Updated: June 5th, 2013

"An important weather satellite that went out of service on May 22 is expected to be brought back online Thursday, said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The satellite shut itself down after suffering from an unknown, sudden disturbance that caused it to change its orientation relative to the Earth, and engineers have worked to troubleshoot the source of the error and restart the spacecraft.

The return to service comes just as a tropical storm may be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico." ...


Yeah, right in time! Good night from Germany with it's new Everglades ...



Photo: Reuters
1142. flcanes
Quoting barbamz:
NOAA To Revive Essential Weather Satellite on Thursday
By Andrew Freedman, published: June 5th, 2013 , Last Updated: June 5th, 2013

"An important weather satellite that went out of service on May 22 is expected to be brought back online Thursday, said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The satellite shut itself down after suffering from an unknown, sudden disturbance that caused it to change its orientation relative to the Earth, and engineers have worked to troubleshoot the source of the error and restart the spacecraft.

The return to service comes just as a tropical storm may be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico." ...


Yeah, right in time! Good night from Germany with it's new Everglades ...


Photo: Reuters

Wow. Worst flloding in some years
I see that we now have Andrea. I thought she would have her moment to shine before hitting Florida. I think that 50 - 60 mph winds is a good bet for her for right now.
Quoting robintampabay:




Yes, I live in Pristine Place, got some rain, none since I got home from down in Tampa.


I'm not too far from you. We got some heavy rain earlier, but just drizzles for the last couple of hours. How's Tampa?
Quoting Tazmanian:
man Andrea is not looking too well right now i wounder if it will weakin tonight
i just said that 10 posts agao its falling apart
1146. flcanes
Quoting weatherbow:
I see that we now have Andrea. I thought she would have her moment to shine before hitting Florida. I think that 50 - 60 mph winds is a good bet for her for right now.

Yep. NHC says 45 MPH for peak but that seems a tad too conservative
Quoting flcanes:

Erm, yes, but nhc gives it a 5% chance of becoming one before landfall

One advisory before Ophelia became a Category 4 hurricane, the National Hurricane Center gave it a 3% chance of doing so.

Keep in mind I'm not saying Andrea will become a hurricane. In all likelihood, it won't.
Quoting mermaidlaw:
Spring Hill fl. here
Be safe everyone!


Hi neighbor! I got batteries. I'm good.
Quoting weatherwart:


I'm not too far from you. We got some heavy rain earlier, but just drizzles for the last couple of hours. How's Tampa?



Got one good downpour, storms were popping just north of where I work.
Quoting weatherbow:
I see that we now have Andrea. I thought she would have her moment to shine before hitting Florida. I think that 50 - 60 mph winds is a good bet for her for right now.



vary unlikey i think we have seen the peak of Andrea if it dos any thing it will likey weak in from here on out
1151. flcanes
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

One advisory before Ophelia became a Category 4 hurricane, the National Hurricane Center gave it a 3% chance of doing so.

Keep in mind I'm not saying Andrea will become a hurricane. In all likelihood, it won't.

You have a point there. I agree though, Andrea only has 24 hours to strengthen, and with shear and dry air from the west she wont have enough time to become one.
She will also be moving pretty quickly as noted hence the current NHC cone keeping her at TS strength across/near the Southern Atlantic seabord.

Not sure that I totally agree with that scenario if She is weak at landfall and the coc stays over land. Could see her drop down to a depression downstream before making the coast again on the Atlantic side but what do I know...........Just an armchair wannabee met... :)
Quoting robintampabay:



Got one good downpour, storms were popping just north of where I work.


Well, we're on the wrong side of this storm. Unless it takes a U-turn, we're getting wet.
Quoting Tazmanian:
man Andrea is not looking too well right now i wounder if it will weakin tonight

It's looking pretty good for the environment it's in right now and the fact that it's the freaking first week of June.
1155. flcanes
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
She will also be moving pretty quickly as noted hence the current NHC cone keeping her at TS strength across/near the Southern Atlantic seabord.

Not sure that I totally agree with that scenario if She is weak at landfall and the coc stays over land. Could see her drop down to a depression downstream before making the coast again on the Atlantic side but what do I know...........Just an armchair wannabee met... :)

I think that it might move so quickly overland, land wont kill it, just weaken it slightly
1156. flcanes
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It's looking pretty good for the environment it's in right now and the fact that it's the freaking first week of June.

That right there, might be an indication of things to come.......
Who's in charge here?!?!?!?!
Quoting flcanes:

I think that it might move so quickly overland, land wont kill it, just weaken it slightly


I am sure that that is what the models are currently indicating; if that is the case, faster is certainly better in terms of less flooding for parts of the SE.
Quoting presslord:
Who's in charge here?!?!?!?!
The Doc and I.lolJ/K.
1160. flcanes
Andrea looking good
I know it's google maps im looking at the HH mission on...but the last center position of 1002mb was ESE by 5 miles of the original position..but they say N or NE at 3?
1162. tafidog
I really appreciate reading your excellent articles concerning various weather events throughout the year. But, please "has gotten" ??
The first sentence in 6/5/2013 article.
Cliff Dye
Evening all.

So Andrea looks like the typical "first storm of the season" we have seen the past few years...Messy, poorly organized, rain maker...
1164. flcanes
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I am sure that that is what the models are currently indicating; if that is the case, faster is certainly better in terms of less flooding for parts of the SE.

That's true, here in west palm the rain totals are beginning to add up....
Quoting flcanes:

That right there, might be an indication of things to come.......

What worries me the most is how strong this wave is. I wouldn't expect to see waves like this during the first week of the season.
1166. centex
Best radar I could find.

1167. flcanes
Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening all.

So Andrea looks like the typical "first storm of the season" we have seen the past few years...Messy, poorly organized, rain maker...

Well, not if you consider this
Link
Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening all.

So Andrea looks like the typical "first storm of the season" we have seen the past few years...Messy, poorly organized, rain maker...


Well!!! You are certainly no fun...
1169. K8eCane
Quoting tafidog:
I really appreciate reading your excellent articles concerning various weather events throughout the year. But, please "has gotten" ??
The first sentence in 6/5/2013 article.
Cliff Dye



Thats sorta rude. Theres a sentence for ya.
1170. flcanes
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What worries me the most is how strong this wave is. I wouldn't expect to see waves like this during the first week of the season.

And with the carribean slowly warming, the only thing that can stop it is the shear thats bombarding Andrea right now
Lost the deep orange convection with the afternoon heat..

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What worries me the most is how strong this wave is. I wouldn't expect to see waves like this during the first week of the season.
GFS is the only one at this time showing it cause trouble down the road..and if the long range pattern TWA13 posted comes true (a long ways out) we might have to start looking for tropical development in the caribbean at around 9 days.Who knows maybe Andrea won't be the last storm we track in June.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting presslord:


Well!!! You are certainly no fun...


We can't all be dreamers now can we?
In the bigger scheme of things, and looking at how well the ITCZ is firing on the E-Pac, I am thinking what we will see out next named storm, on the E-Pac side, once Adrea gets out of the way in a few days.
1176. flcanes
Quoting washingtonian115:
GFS is the only one at this time showing it cause trouble down the road..and if the long range pattern TWA13 posted comes true (a long ways out) we might have to start looking for tropical development in the caribbean at around 9 days.Who knows maybe Andrea won't be the last storm we track in June.

What does the GFS say
Quoting presslord:
Who's in charge here?!?!?!?!

You, where you been, this place is a mess. Get to work and clean it up. LOL

How are ya Press. Long time no see.
Those not familiar with this year's list:

- Andrea (F)
- Barry (M)
- Chantal (F)
- Dorian (M)
- Erin (F)
- Fernand (M)
- Gabrielle (F)
- Humberto (M)
- Ingrid (F)
- Jerry (M)
- Karen (F)
- Lorenzo (M)
- Melissa (F)
- Nestor (M)
- Olga (F)
- Pablo (M)
- Rebekah (F)
- Sebastian (M)
- Tanya (F)
- Van (M)
- Wendy (F)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

One advisory before Ophelia became a Category 4 hurricane, the National Hurricane Center gave it a 3% chance of doing so.

Keep in mind I'm not saying Andrea will become a hurricane. In all likelihood, it won't.
That's comparing apples to oranges statistically. They gave Ophelia a 3% chance of Cat4. Here, they're giving Andrea a 5% chance of Cat1, and less than 1% chance of cat3 or more.
ANDREA Click pic for loop.
Quoting Ricki13th:


Naw youngster in experience. If he stick with us he can learn a lot.


I used to be that way to an extent when I joined here way back when, I was 10-11 years old (too young now that I think about it!) back in 2006. Over the years, I was taught to just watch the thread, and not use so much of my breath.

That's the best way to learn on here. Now I am 17, 7 years later, and have garnered some respect as well.