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Groundhogs, tornadoes, hurricanes, and the new IPCC report

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:44 PM GMT on February 02, 2007

Punxsutawney Phil, the fearless groundhog forecaster of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, did not see his shadow this morning, signifying that winter will come to an early close. Phil can expect this to be a common occurrence in the coming millennia, according to the newly released Summary of Policy Makers issued today by the United Nations sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In their fourth report since 1990, the IPCC offers its strongest language yet that Earth's climate is warming and humans are largely responsible:

"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level."

"Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes, and wind patterns."


Earth has warmed, sea levels have begun to rise at an accelerated rate, and Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased substantially over the past 150 years (Figure 1). These facts are not controversial. The big change from the IPCC's last report, in 2001, is the level of confidence on if humans are to blame. In that report, human-emitted (anthropogenic) greenhouse gases were estimated to be likely responsible for Earth's temperature increase (67-90% chance), while the new report says it is very likely (greater than 90% chance).


Figure 1. Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature; (b) global average sea level rise from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red) data and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March-April. All changes are relative to corresponding averages for the period 1961-1990. Smoothed curves represent decadal averaged values while circles show yearly values. The shaded areas are the uncertainty intervals estimated from a comprehensive analysis of known uncertainties (a and b) and from the time series (c). Image credit: FIGURE SPM-3 from the Summary of Policy Makers from the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report.

Predicted temperature rise
The 2007 IPCC report predicts temperature rises of 1.1 - 6.4°C (2 - 11.5°F) by 2100. This is a wider range than the 1.4 - 5.8°C increase given in the 2001 report. However, the 2007 report goes on to say that their best estimate for temperature rise is 1.8 - 4°C (3.2 - 7.1°F).

Predicted sea level rise
The 2007 report predicts that sea level rise by 2100 will be .6 - 1.9 feet (18 - 58 cm). An additional 3.9 to 7.8 inches (10 to 20 cm) are possible if the recent surprising melting of polar ice sheets continues. The 2001 IPCC report gave a much wider range for sea level rise: .3 - 2.9 feet (8 - 88 cm).

What does the IPCC say about stronger hurricanes?
The IPCC did a good job with their treatment of how global warming is affecting hurricanes. Here's their carefully worded statement on the observed changes:

There is observational evidence for an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures. There are also suggestions of increased intense tropical cyclone activity in some other regions where concerns over data quality are greater. Multi-decadal variability and the quality of the tropical cyclone records prior to routine satellite observations in about 1970 complicate the detection of long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity. There is no clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones.


Later in the report, there is a table that shows that there has likely (>66% chance) been an increase in strong hurricanes since 1970 in some regions. It isn't mentioned, but the Atlantic is the region where this increase has been most notable. Also in that table is the assertion that it is more likely than not (>50% chance) that there has been a human contribution to this trend. This statement was leaked to the press yesterday, and resulted in speculation that the IPCC concluded that stronger hurricanes like Katrina were due to human-caused global warming. However, there is a footnote on the table, which wasn't part of yesterday's leaked press reports: "Magnitude of anthropogenic contributions not assessed. Attribution for these phenomena based on expert judgment rather than formal attribution studies."

In other words, the link between stronger hurricanes and global warming is a theory (expert judgment) and is not a conclusion of the IPCC. It is reasonable to theorize that some human contribution is responsible for the increase in strong hurricanes in the Atlantic since 1970, since this increase does correlate so well with the observed increase in sea surface temperatures. However, as mentioned in the earlier paragraph, it is difficult to make a strong statement saying that global warming is responsible for stronger hurricanes, due to the high natural variability of these storms and the poor observational record: "multi-decadal variability and the quality of the tropical cyclone records prior to routine satellite observations in about 1970 complicate the detection of long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity." The IPCC table is confusing, and I believe it was a mistake to assign a probability of how likely a human contribution to hurricane intensity has been. There is not enough good science to make a sound judgment, and this section of the table should have been left blank.

Finally, the IPCC projection for how climate change will affect hurricanes in the future is pretty non-controversial, since they don't attach any numbers saying how large these effects will be:

Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical SSTs. There is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in numbers of tropical cyclones. The apparent increase in the proportion of very intense storms since 1970 in some regions is much larger than simulated by current models for that period.


Overall, the IPCC statements on hurricanes are very similar to those adopted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in December, as I discussed in an earlier blog. The WMO report concluded, "Though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point."

What does the IPCC say about stronger tornadoes?
In the wake of today's devastating tornadoes that swept through Central Florida, killing at least 19 people, it is important to ask how climate change might be affecting tornadoes. Well, we don't have good enough long-term observational records of tornadoes to tell, and climate models don't shed any light on the issue, either. Here's the relevant statement in the 2007 IPCC report:

There is insufficient evidence to determine whether trends exist in small scale phenomena such as tornadoes, hail, lighting, and dust storms.

I'll have much more on the IPCC report next week, as will Dr. Ricky Rood of the University of Michigan, who will be writing in our new featured Climate Change blog. Who knows, if we want to collect a quick $10,000, we can "thoughtfully explore the limitations of climate model outputs", as explained in an article posted by the UK Guardian today.


Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks Dr. Masters
Calamity finds another ...prayers for Floridians this Friday.
I'd personally think that GW will lead to more severe weather outbreaks since the upper atmosphere is cooling as the lower atmosphere warms.It adds to instability.
I'll repost, sorry for the repeat, since I sent at day end.

The cause and solution to global warming is so obviously to reduce population levels that I am always surprised it is never mentioned.

No one benifits from escalating over-population except the rich at the top of the food-chain, and any practical economic system can easily run at even keel as well. The problems are not just global warming, it is the destruction of nearly everything that makes this planet attractive. In the East, where I live, I can drive a hundred miles in any direction, and not find a single place of solitude that is unravaged by man. You name it: global warming, air polution, water polution, nuclear waste, habitate loss, wildlife loss, obnoxious noise everywhere including jet planes in the most remote areas, too many roads and cars, rules and more rules, light polution, private property, and over regulated national parks due to millions of visitors trying to escape the hell they created. Those are just on the environmental side. What is left, where a man can go to be free. That is why I say that global warming is only the tip of the iceburg, and the methods to solve it as a single entity will fail. The rest of the iceburg will just roll over and the tip remains - get the analogy.
Is it just me that wants to say George W is to blame everytime they read "GW is to blame for the increase in tragedy post"? Okay so maybe not funny but cut me a break, I got no sleep after 3am when my cat became PTSD over the storms rangign through. (We were about one mile from the unconfirmed hit on US1 near Port Orange which left so much debris the road was closed).
A coworker from our Deland office just came in with pictures of the destruction there (some of which you may see on AP stories as he stopped to sell some to the newspaper on his way in to this office smart man) Anyway in the plaza where the Sherrif's office, Department of Children and Familes, our Employment services office and other community service offices are there is a lot of roof missing and windows smashed damage our office looks pristine a few pieces of awning down that's about it. the kicker the picture of our office shows the barely tied to the awning Free Tax Prep sign is still hanging while next door part of the roof is missing. I told him he should sell that picture with the caption "Even God doesn't mess with the IRS"
Winds are picking up again here be safe all and hopeing all those missing are safe and the death toll does not rise during the S&R efforts going on now.
Weather today in Florida was wicked...

I'm a PIO in Pinellas County, Florida, and we are on standby for a possible deployment to the affected area. Seems as if the worst was to our north...
You're absolutely right Johnny.Let's kill the first-born son of every family on Earth.Oh wait,that includes me.I must go into hiding.
I'm a PIO in Pinellas County, Florida, and we are on standby for a possible deployment to the affected area. Seems as if the worst was to our north...

Heard Crystal River got a bounce my grand father Ellis Bethany lives there in a Trailer no contact so if you head up that way and don't mind checking in on an old man to ease a worry.
Dora just keeps on going...



Another Infrared view

Hey H23.I noticed it has really consolidated most convection to only the eyewall since the seeming concentric eyewalls last night.On Microwave imagery anyway.
Yea i noticed that also...How are u doing today?


pretty good...you?
how did you post that image from NRL?I can't do it.
The animated one?
The NRL images won't go through for me.
no,your 6:37PMGMT post
Could use some of that global warming right now in the midwest. We are seeing some of the coldest temps in nearly a decade. What happened to cause the sudden appearance of such cold temps that just didn't exist anywhere a month ago?
First right click on the image and get the properties of the image.

You can change the width and height depending how large u want the image to be.For NRL images i use 500 width and 500 height.

Be back in minute.
Scott,they did exist up in Alaska and Siberia.The problem was we had a trough in the West and a Ridge in the East,meaning all the cold weather poured into the Rockies then turned due west.When the air went down the lee side of the Rockies,they warmed up 30 degrees for every mile of elevation they lost.So,if it's 15 degrees at the top of a 10000ft Rocky mountain range,and the air goes down the east side in to the Great Plains,it will rise in temps about 60 degrees,up to 75 degrees.Now,the trough has shifted in to the East and the flow of air over the Midwest is from the north instead of west.The cold Siberian air is now coming down to the Midwest instead of the Rockies.
Good Blog Dr. M. This is for Dora-Just keep Going, Just Keep Going, Just Keep Going, Going, Going.
Is anyone on?
We're all in Randrewl's blog.
I've decovered that now
I was curious what effect the increased global temperature would have on the sea level rise, due to increased evaporation. This may already be in the models, but here is what a quicky (like 15 minute) calculation revealed:

Starting with an average earth temp of 57*F and relative humidty held constant at 50%. The earth at 5.6E15 square feet, and about 75% water. A 5*C temperature increase would increase absolute humidity from .16gm/cubic foot to .25gm/cubic foot. Figuring the major part of the humid air is confined to 10000 feet, an additional 1.7E14 cubic feet of evaporated water is airborne - sounds like a lot, but divided by the 4.2E15 square foot sea surface area results in only about 1/2 inch of sea water evaporated with the 5*C temperature rise predicted.

So basically all of the sea level rise would occur, and virtually none would become vapor as I first guessed. Even though some of the initial assumptions, like using an average, and data that may be off some, (I didn't look everything up) evaporation appears to be a minor factor in sea level rise/fall. The average increased absolute humidity (1.5x) is probably the big concern considering weather related issues. This increase is greater still in the tropical regions, due to the exponential increase in the ability for warm air to hold H2O. It is surprising to see just how much more mosture is in that globally-warmed, I mean climate-changed air.
i heard florida had a tornado outbreak?
Yes indeed 14 deads...My heart goes out to those familys who have lost love ones.


Dam right they did
It was a mess and i got hurt by it
Winds are now up 110kts with DORA!


first RI of the year,right?
Or was Bondo after the new year?
(Whstles loudly) Some Cyclone
Bondo was before the New Year i Think
Combustion puts CO2 and H2O in the atmosphere how much of that water will lead to sea level rise?
oh yea and H2O is a greenhouse gas and combustion releases heat. How does that affect the temp change?
I doupt dora will compete with bondo cause overall conditions are expected to become less favorable for futher intensification in the coming hours.

Here is an awsome pic from my album of bondo!

(Very well organized)


Header for the Melbourne wx discussion last evening:

FXUS62 KMLB 020239
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
935 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007
.DISCUSSION...
...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NRN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT...
Dora looks annular
Doom, gloom and misfortune.

Some people will do (say) anything for money. What a bunch of zeroes.
Snotly, a quick web search indicated that global energy consumption, 80% fuel-based, was almost 40E15 BTU/year or 3.1E13 Watts/hour.

Taking the suns energy input at 100 Watts/square foot, the Earth's eclipsed area, with a curvature factor for indirect radiation; the sun was creating 1E17 Watts/hour. So man's contribution to direct warming is only .03% of the sun's. If you figure absolute zero would be our temperature without the sun, the sun is heating us up 300*C - you can see why a slight change in reflectivity can change temperature quickly. .03% of 300*C is about .09*C due to man's direct combustion on the planet. It is only thru the greenhouse gas effect and other indirect ways that we have been able to raise the Earths temperature the more detectable 1*C.

That was an interesting question/issue, and one I have not seen an example of.
StSimonsIslandGAGuy~ The Melbourne hazerdous was a bit jumpier & requested to make sure your NOAA radio was ready to wake ya.

Dora~ 933mb 110kts
high pressure continues to dominate the antilles well into next week so far the high pressure has been keeping the rain at bay in pr for two weeks. How long will this high pressure last? Don't know but ill tell you what the grass is starting to look brownish. there are two areas of high pressure one two the north of pr and another east of the antilles.
cimss MIMIC of Impressive "DORA" Link
The Orlando Sentinel has updated its photo essay.

Photo gallery: Today's storm damage

Quite a few summer posters are from that area - I hope they are ok.


I think its time for manufactured home makers to start installing vertical steel beams, welded to their frames, in their products.

Looking at mobile and manufactured home damage there seems to be a point where the whole thing catastrophically goes separating from the base and leaving just an elevated platform.
Is GW man-made? I don't think so. Does man contribute? Some. How many ice ages have we had on earth? why did the ice melt each time? was man around to cause this? Why is man the villan this time? Why did the UN's IPCC drop the medeval warming period from its 1000 year temp charts? Give me solid answers, not just rhetoric, with convincing comparisons, and I will give man-made global warming serious consideration.
I am not anyones global warming research assistant . There is however an overwhelming preponderance of evidence pointing to the means and mechanisms being manmade and in place to cause global warming.

You really cant question an entire series of logical steps, observations and historical evidence with - well it anit true cause I dont believe it and expect people to spoon feed you years and years worth of technical information with a smile on their faces.

I have finished my blog. Please stop by and leave your opinions!

Link
Tropical Depression 09F
12.2S 175.2E - 25 knots 1000 hPa

moving southwest at 7 knots

Gale Warning in effect expect sustained winds of 25 to 30 knots within 90 nm of the center possibly increasing to 35 knots in 12 to 24 hours.

next gale warning at 7:00am UTC

Tropical Disturbance Summary
=============================
Tropical Depression lies underneath a 250hPa diffluent region with moderate to strong wind shear. Convection has increased spatially and cooled about the center for the last 12 hours. Organization has improved over the last 6 to 12 hours.

Global models initialized and agrees on a west to southwest movement before accelerating south to southeast with gradual intensification.

Potential for Tropical Depression 09 to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate.
CB you can check my blog.
cyclonebuster what are you doing
Screwing up Dr. M's blog, that is what.
Don't you think that this looks ridiculous?
Dora is now lacking deep convection and has probably peaked but organization wise she's still intact.


LOL - CB use the modify command!

Hi Taz.

Evidentially it was the subtropical jet stream above those storms in Florida providing lift and drawing air into the bottom of the storms last night. Combined with flow in a different direction below this also produced rotation in the storms. At least thats what the weatherman just said.

hello 23
this hit - on cyclonebuster post and they go a way
Hey Taz!
I wouldn't say that Dora lacks deep convection; if it did, it would be a rapidly dissipation cloud swirl (on most IR images, deep convection is in color while shallower clouds are in black and white):



The convection is shallower though (cloud tops are not as cold); SSD still rates it as a Cat 4 (T6.0/115 kts):

WWIO21 KNES 030245
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN METEOSAT 7 IRNIGHT
.
FEBRUARY 03 2007 0230Z
.
18.6S 67.6E T6.0/6.5/W0.5/06HRS DORA (10S)

PAST POSITIONS...17.9S 67.9E 02/1430Z IRNIGHT
17.2S 68.2E 02/0230Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS...SYSTEM STILL LOOKS VERY SYMMETRICAL ON EARLY MORNING
VISIBLE IMAGERY. LARGE OW EYE SURROUNDED BY BLACK FOR DT=6.0
WHICH AGREES WITH 6 HOUR MET. PT IS 6.5 BUT WILL BRING FT DOWN
TO 6.0 FOR THIS FIX.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM.

THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 03/1000Z.
You don't even have to click on "-"; just set your comment filter to anything other than Show All (I keep it on Show Average).
hows it going 23 i may have rain next week
Overall STL conditions will be becomeing less favorable for futher intensification and dora should begin to weaken.Strong deep convection is not as it was before.
It is at this time, still a good looking heathly storm. Always amazed to see one hold an eye like that all day like Dora has. She has been kind of a small storm.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
issued by Perth: Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Central Indian Ocean
-------------------------
Tropical Low
7.0S 97.0E - 1006 hPa

about 580 km north of Cocos Islands almost stationary

Potential of Development
===========================
Saturday - Monday = Low
Tuesday = Moderate
Dora isn't really that small; hurricane force winds extend 45 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds 190 miles.
That's where kinda small came in play, guess more normal sized. Certainly not one of these monster size. What time of day is it over there? Is it suffering from the afternoon heat as far as some cold cloud tops lacking around the center?
8:54am Reunion Standard Time and Reunion is to the northwest of Dora.
The Night Sky Live will show how daytime is progressing across the globe.
oops northeast of Dora
My recap is on my blog.On the outbreak of storms.
Thanks LowerCal & HGW. So the sun has just come up on Dora.
Good job on your blog weatherboykris.
Yes indeed!


Wow - take a look at this Report of the 1998 February Orlando tornado event - its a nearly Identical situation with the subtropical jet.

SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL TORNADO OCCURRENCES IN FLORIDA DURING STRONG EL NINO AND STRONG LA NINA EVENTS


Look at the Map!!!!

Also NOTE:

The majority of ET killer tornadoes occurred in the late night and morning hours with more than 60% occurring between midnight and noon.



1998 was an el Nino year also and:


The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was the second deadliest season on record. The season began in late July, and after a quiet beginning to August, the tropics remained active through early October. With 5 storms reaching hurricane status in September, the month was among the most active on record. 7 storms also occurred in the month. In addition, two storms existed in the month of November, one of which became a hurricane. In all, seven storms made landfall around the Atlantic Ocean, of which four were hurricanes. The Gulf of Mexico experienced six tropical cyclones, a relatively high amount.


Also note 1997: (as compared to last year)

The 1997 season was inactive, with only seven named storms (eight total) forming. It was the first time since the 1961 season that there were no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin during the entire month of August. A strong El Nio is credited with reducing the number of storms in the Atlantic, while increasing the number of storms in the 1997 Pacific hurricane season and 1997 Pacific typhoon season with 19 and 29 storms, respectively.

Another noteworthy event:

North American ice storm of 1998 - January 1998.
1998 was an el Nino years also and:

1998 was a La Nina year during hurricane season... forecasts call for the same this year...

Also of note is that 1998 had the most $1 billion+ weather disasters of any year:

Texas Flooding October-November 1998. Severe flooding in southeast Texas from 2 heavy rain events, with 10-20 inch rainfall totals; approximately $1.0 (1.1) billion damage/costs; 31 deaths.

Hurricane Georges September 1998. Category 2 hurricane strikes Puerto Rico, Florida Keys, and Gulf coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida panhandle, 15-30 inch 2-day rain totals in parts of AL/FL; estimated $5.9 (6.5) billion damage/costs; 16 deaths. Special Report

Hurricane Bonnie August 1998. Category 3 hurricane strikes eastern North Carolina and Virginia, extensive agricultural damage due to winds and flooding, with 10-inch rains in 2 days in some locations; approximately $1.0 (1.1) billion damage/costs; 3 deaths. Special Report

Southern Drought/Heat Wave Summer 1998. Severe drought and heat wave from Texas/Oklahoma eastward to the Carolinas; $6.0-$9.0 billion (6.6-9.9) damage/costs to agriculture and ranching; at least 200 deaths. Special Report

Minnesota Severe Storms/Hail May 1998. Very damaging severe thunderstorms with large hail over wide areas of Minnesota; over $1.5 (1.7) billion damage/costs; 1 death.

Southeast Severe Weather Winter-Spring 1998. Tornadoes and flooding related to El Nino in southeastern states; over $1.0 (1.1) billion damage/costs; at least 132 deaths. Special Report

Northeast Ice Storm January 1998. Intense ice storm hits Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and New York, with extensive forestry losses; over $1.4 (1.5) billion damage/costs; 16 deaths. Special Report
There are already one parallel between 1998 and 2007:

North American ice storm of 1998
North American ice storm of 2007
(affected different areas; the 2007 storm was much deadlier although costs are unknown)


135 mph Cat 4 storm
CIMSS MIMIC "DORA", impressive.. Peak Vmax 115kts.Link
"Owl Chick Gets Warm Bed at Zoo:"

Mild weather in early winter fooled a pair of tropical owls into thinking it was mating season and hatching a baby.


Nice pic of the baby owl.
Does anyone have insight on the status of El Nino. One of the local TV yahoo's said that it was on a rapid decline and should be all but gone by March - April.
It's already gone.We are headed toward La Nina.
Well El Nino is hanging on by a thread
El Nino is already practically gone. Link

Next: La Nina -



That cold water plume is currently reaching the surface, replacing the warm water.
110. ryang
Yes it is gone.
Hi Ryan
Hope El Nino left flowers
113. ryang
Hey TS2.
Good morning,

Its really incredible how fast those cool anomalies are expanding.We could be seeing negative SST anomalies that support La Nina conditions in the next week or two.

115. ryang
Dora's forecast track.

track
.DISCUSSION...

NOTE TO USERS: TWO STORM SURVEY TEAMS ARE CURRENTLY SURVEYING THE
TORNADO RAVAGED AREAS.

ONE HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A HIGH END EF3 (~150 MPH) EAST OF PAISLEY
NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER IN EASTERN LAKE COUNTY. THE TEAM IS HEADED
TOWARD THE MORE HEAVILY DAMAGED AREAS FROM PAISLEY TO LADY LAKE.
Incredible visible view of Dora!

Thanks for the update on El Nino. A La Nina season worries us here in Florida. After a quiet 2006 hurricane season '07 is looking to turn active again.
Cloud cover will definately be on the increase across south florida during the day today.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Animated florida radar

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Posted By: clwstmchasr at 11:53 AM EST on February 03, 2007.

Thanks for the update on El Nino. A La Nina season worries us here in Florida. After a quiet 2006 hurricane season '07 is looking to turn active again.

I also live in florida in the miami area and i will say that having la nina conditions present does not mean florida will be at greater risk this season.It all will determine on how the steering currents set up.Having la nina in place will no doupt create a more favorable enviroment for tropical storm formation but we could also end up with a year similar to 1995 when most activity got turned away into the atlantic.In any given season in my opinion south florida is going to have a few threats and we just have to be ready for that possiblity.Overall alot of unanswered questions we still be present for the next couple of months until we get closer to cane season.No worries for now. Adrian

PS!Iam enjoying this summertime warmth across the area with highs 85-87 degress.
This iss what im dealing with now Link 23
Not a biggie scattered rain showers up there which will likely approach me later.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Its already dropped about 1.25 inches on me already
Glad your doing ok after that tornado outbreak that went on up there.Get yourself a weather radio it might very well save you and familys life next time severe weather threatens your area.I own one of my own.Hope u have great day.




i went outside in it and got hurt
Well atleast it was nothing life threating.Never go outside during severe weather that was not very smart on your behalf.Talk to later Going to have lunch with wife.
Warm Front novel about global warming in contest and needs votes. Dr. Masters proofed some of it but I can't get past the firewall now.
I think el Nino is about done - the pattern looks like la Nina developing - BUT - there was a troubling plume of warmth near central America. I could be wrong, Let me look again.

Yea it looks like its hanging on - but trending towards diminishing with a warm anomaly near panama?..?

On second thought the panama thing probably doesn't matter and the plume into the pacific from south America probably indicates we are moving into la nina - right? - eh, does anyone care?

Im thinking early season if it is starting.
Hi again everyone
130. Inyo
El Nino didnt do what it was 'supposed' to, what makes you think La Nina will either? Everyone will predict 23423424 hurricanes again.
Everyone will predict 23423424 hurricanes again.
Posted By: Inyo


LoL!!! - all passing directly over their house too!

Its been a pretty good El Nino - if you factor in the horrible drought that was occurring in the SE I think.

You have to admit the spring of 1998 comparison with the Orlando tornadoes and the big Ice storm is pretty surprising. right?
Just the subtropical jet.
Hello. Where is everyboddy ????
Dora doesn't look to healthy now...





Tropical cyclone 11P now at 35kts forcasted to intensify to 50kts in the coming days.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Track Forcast for 11P
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
615 PM EST SAT FEB 3 2007

...THE LATEST FIELD REPORT FROM BOTH THE LAKE COUNTY AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY SURVEY TEAMS REGARDING YESTERDAYS KILLER TORNADO EVENT...

...DAMAGE SURVEYS NOW INDICATE THAT AT LEAST THREE TORNADOES ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEATH AND DESTRUCTION...

A PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY CONTINUES IN BOTH LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES WHERE EXPERT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAMS ARE
ASSESSING THE DEVASTATION. THE LATEST REPORT FROM THE LAKE COUNTY
TEAM IS THAT THE TORNADO WHICH RIPPED THROUGH THE VILLAGES AND LADY
LAKE WAS HIGH END EF-3 WITH WINDS OF 155 TO 160 MPH. THE FIRST OF
THREE TORNADOES INITIALLY TOUCHED DOWN IN SUMTER COUNTY NEAR
WILDWOOD AND THE VILLAGES AND THEN CROSSED OVER INTO LAKE COUNTY TO
STRIKE LADY LAKE WHERE THE FIRST EVENT FATALITIES OCCURRED.
CURRENTLY...THERE ARE 7 KNOWN FATALITIES IN THE LADY LAKE AREA.

THE VILLAGES/LADY LAKE TORNADO...TORNADO NUMBER 1...HAS BEEN
CLASSIFIED AS AN EF-3 TORNADO WHICH CAUSED DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES
WHERE MOST WALLS COLLAPSED EXCEPT FOR THEIR INTERIOR ROOMS...AS WELL
AS LARGE TREES BECAME DEBARKED WITH ONLY THE STUBS OF THE LARGEST
BRANCHES REMAINING. MOBILE HOMES WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED. THIS
TORNADO WAS ONE-QUARTER MILE WIDE DURING ITS MOST FIERCE MOMENTS.
THE TORNADO LIFTED EAST OF LADY LAKE WITH AN APPROXIMATE PATH LENGTH
OF ABOUT 15 MILES. THE TORNADO STRUCK LADY LAKE AT 320 AM.
AGAIN...7 KNOWN FATALITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TORNADO.

THE LAKE MACK/DELAND TORNADO...TORNADO NUMBER 2...WAS ALSO HIGH END
EF-3 WITH WINDS OF 160 TO 165 MPH. IT WAS ALSO ONE-QUARTER MILE
WIDE. IT RESULTED IN COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES...AND
CAUSED LARGE TREES TO BECOME DEBARKED. THE ESTIMATED TORNADO WINDS
NEAR LAKE MACK PEAKED AT 165 MPH WHICH RESULTED IN 10
FATALITIES...AND 150 TO 155 MPH WINDS AT FOREST DRIVE AND STATE ROAD
44 WHICH RESULTED IN 3 MORE FATALITIES. A TOTAL OF 13 KNOWN
FATALITIES OCCURRED WITH THIS DEADLY TORNADO. THE TORNADO CONTINUED
ACROSS THE COUNTY LINE NEAR HONTOON ISLAND...CROSSING INTO VOLUSIA
COUNTY...AND STRIKING DELAND AS A HIGH END EF-2 TORNADO WITH WINDS
OF 130 TO 135 MPH AS REPORTED BY THE VOLUSIA COUNTY TEAM. IT WAS
ONE-EIGHTH MILE WIDE AND LIFTED EAST OF INTERSTATE 4 NEAR THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS. THE PATH LENGTH WAS APPROXIMATELY 22
MILES. THE TORNADO STRUCK LAKE MACK AT 348 AM AND DELAND AT 402 AM.

THE NEW SMYRNA BEACH/PONCE INLET TORNADO...TORNADO NUMBER THREE...
HAS BEEN INITIALLY RATED AS AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH WINDS OF 100 TO 105
MPH. THE TORNADO UPLIFTED ROOFS ON MANY STRUCTURES...CAUSING A
SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF ROOFING MATERIAL...THE COLLAPSE OF CHIMNEYS...
AND COLLAPSING GARAGE DOORS. ADDITIONAL DAMAGE OCCURRED TO PORCHES
AND CAR PORTS. THIS TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 95
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 44 IN NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND MOVED THROUGH PONCE
INLET. THE PATH LENGTH IS ABOUT 5 MILES. THE TORNADO STRUCK PONCE
INLET AT 427 AM.

THIS STATEMENT IS ONLY AN INITIAL REPORTING FROM THE SURVEY TEAMS.
IN THE COMING DAYS...CONSIDERABLE EFFORT WILL BE INVESTED TO ENSURE
THAT THIS HISTORICAL EVENT IS ACCURATELY DOCUMENTED.

A WORD ABOUT THE NEW ENHANCED FUJITA (EF) TORNADO SCALE...THE
EF-SCALE WAS DEVELOPED TO BETTER ASSESS WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A WIDE VARIETY OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...FROM SINGLE-WIDE MOBILE HOMES
TO INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS TO FRAMED ONE OR TWO FAMILY HOMES...AND MANY
MORE. THIS SCALE IS CONSIDERED A DAMAGE SCALE...WHEREAS THE
TRADITIONAL FUJITA SCALE (F-SCALE) WAS MORE OF A WIND SPEED SCALE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE NEW EF-SCALE...PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITE:

HTTP://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FSCALE

$$

DWS/NWS MELBOURNE FL


No tornadoes for us S of Deland this time. The last one was 2003, only F0, (Still EF0). EF3/150 in Lady Lake was spot on. WV from 1998 Florida Tornadoes:
WV
Nice!
You guys have this blog so loaded with fancy display graphics......who can access??

...THE LATEST FIELD REPORT FROM BOTH THE LAKE COUNTY AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY SURVEY TEAMS REGARDING YESTERDAYS KILLER TORNADO EVENT...

...DAMAGE SURVEYS NOW INDICATE THAT AT LEAST THREE TORNADOES ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEATH AND DESTRUCTION...

A PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY CONTINUES IN BOTH LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES WHERE EXPERT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAMS ARE
ASSESSING THE DEVASTATION. THE LATEST REPORT FROM THE LAKE COUNTY
TEAM IS THAT THE TORNADO WHICH RIPPED THROUGH THE VILLAGES AND LADY
LAKE WAS HIGH END EF-3 WITH WINDS OF 155 TO 160 MPH. THE FIRST OF
THREE TORNADOES INITIALLY TOUCHED DOWN IN SUMTER COUNTY NEAR
WILDWOOD AND THE VILLAGES AND THEN CROSSED OVER INTO LAKE COUNTY TO
STRIKE LADY LAKE WHERE THE FIRST EVENT FATALITIES OCCURRED.
CURRENTLY...THERE ARE 7 KNOWN FATALITIES IN THE LADY LAKE AREA.

THE VILLAGES/LADY LAKE TORNADO...TORNADO NUMBER 1...HAS BEEN
CLASSIFIED AS AN EF-3 TORNADO WHICH CAUSED DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES
WHERE MOST WALLS COLLAPSED EXCEPT FOR THEIR INTERIOR ROOMS...AS WELL
AS LARGE TREES BECAME DEBARKED WITH ONLY THE STUBS OF THE LARGEST
BRANCHES REMAINING. MOBILE HOMES WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED. THIS
TORNADO WAS ONE-QUARTER MILE WIDE DURING ITS MOST FIERCE MOMENTS.
THE TORNADO LIFTED EAST OF LADY LAKE WITH AN APPROXIMATE PATH LENGTH
OF ABOUT 15 MILES. THE TORNADO STRUCK LADY LAKE AT 320 AM.
AGAIN...7 KNOWN FATALITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TORNADO.

THE LAKE MACK/DELAND TORNADO...TORNADO NUMBER 2...WAS ALSO HIGH END
EF-3 WITH WINDS OF 160 TO 165 MPH. IT WAS ALSO ONE-QUARTER MILE
WIDE. IT RESULTED IN COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES...AND
CAUSED LARGE TREES TO BECOME DEBARKED. THE ESTIMATED TORNADO WINDS
NEAR LAKE MACK PEAKED AT 165 MPH WHICH RESULTED IN 10
FATALITIES...AND 150 TO 155 MPH WINDS AT FOREST DRIVE AND STATE ROAD
44 WHICH RESULTED IN 3 MORE FATALITIES. A TOTAL OF 13 KNOWN
FATALITIES OCCURRED WITH THIS DEADLY TORNADO. THE TORNADO CONTINUED
ACROSS THE COUNTY LINE NEAR HONTOON ISLAND...CROSSING INTO VOLUSIA
COUNTY...AND STRIKING DELAND AS A HIGH END EF-2 TORNADO WITH WINDS
OF 130 TO 135 MPH AS REPORTED BY THE VOLUSIA COUNTY TEAM. IT WAS
ONE-EIGHTH MILE WIDE AND LIFTED EAST OF INTERSTATE 4 NEAR THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS. THE PATH LENGTH WAS APPROXIMATELY 22
MILES. THE TORNADO STRUCK LAKE MACK AT 348 AM AND DELAND AT 402 AM.

THE NEW SMYRNA BEACH/PONCE INLET TORNADO...TORNADO NUMBER THREE...
HAS BEEN INITIALLY RATED AS AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH WINDS OF 100 TO 105
MPH. THE TORNADO UPLIFTED ROOFS ON MANY STRUCTURES...CAUSING A
SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF ROOFING MATERIAL...THE COLLAPSE OF CHIMNEYS...
AND COLLAPSING GARAGE DOORS. ADDITIONAL DAMAGE OCCURRED TO PORCHES
AND CAR PORTS. THIS TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 95
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 44 IN NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND MOVED THROUGH PONCE
INLET. THE PATH LENGTH IS ABOUT 5 MILES. THE TORNADO STRUCK PONCE
INLET AT 427 AM.

THIS STATEMENT IS ONLY AN INITIAL REPORTING FROM THE SURVEY TEAMS.
IN THE COMING DAYS...CONSIDERABLE EFFORT WILL BE INVESTED TO ENSURE
THAT THIS HISTORICAL EVENT IS ACCURATELY DOCUMENTED.

A WORD ABOUT THE NEW ENHANCED FUJITA (EF) TORNADO SCALE...THE
EF-SCALE WAS DEVELOPED TO BETTER ASSESS WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A WIDE VARIETY OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...FROM SINGLE-WIDE MOBILE HOMES
TO INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS TO FRAMED ONE OR TWO FAMILY HOMES...AND MANY
MORE. THIS SCALE IS CONSIDERED A DAMAGE SCALE...WHEREAS THE
TRADITIONAL FUJITA SCALE (F-SCALE) WAS MORE OF A WIND SPEED SCALE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE NEW EF-SCALE...PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITE:

THE LATEST REPORT FROM THE LAKE COUNTY
TEAM IS THAT THE TORNADO WHICH RIPPED THROUGH THE VILLAGES AND LADY
LAKE WAS HIGH END EF-3 WITH WINDS OF 155 TO 160 MPH.


Argue with the NWS....not me!
Repeat Aqua:
Rand, I apologise for trashing you earlier on your blog!
The GFS has changed significantly since the last run. The gulf is interesting, again, if not only for the new spring weather pattern emerging.

High pressure moving in over N Fla for a while.
JFL,we never had a wintertime pattern emerge!
Ahh, what have been the huge surges of cold air during the past few weeks then?
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE NEW EF-SCALE...PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING BLOG:Link

The latest GFS run just shows clipper after clipper of massively cold air penetrateing the Ohio valley area bringing deathly cold temperatures. The moisture steam continues but moves further down south bringing day after day of rain on the keys and south Florida.
I thought we did - back in December it seemed like we got into that repetitive frontal cool down thing for few runs.

The tornado thing at Christmas made it seem weird though. Perhaps instead of winter we should call it tornado/slightly cooler time.
Ahh, what have been the huge surges of cold air during the past few weeks then?


Those haven't really penetrated into the SE.That's the region of the country I'm talking about.This winter has been so boring.Only 116 Days
JFL,I'm not talking about what is shown on the model runs,I'm talking about what actually happened.Florida has had what,3 major cold fronts this year?Wimpy winter
I would say that we are in a winter pattern right now:



It was only 6 degrees last night (18 degrees below normal); the forecast high tomorrow is 19 degrees.
Kris...down here in S Fl we have had a warmer then ussual winter, but I'm not complaining. I'm happy we havent had one freeze when normally we've had 2-3. The 3-4 'cold' fronts were more refreshing then cold. However, for a while the western US was very cold. Now its moved over to the midwest and NE states.
When you say "violent weathered spring", you don't mean like last year (which broke records for most severe weather reports in the St. Louis NWS area, as well as most tornadoes in Missouri and Illinois), although I will have to see exactly how La Nina affects severe weather.
Is anyone on
That was bad MSTL. You know, it think that was a transitory period - moving into the el Nio pattern - as we later figured during the SLOW(!!!!!) Hurricane season. I would guess moving out would be just as bad or worse. At least that is what I'm thinking now. A rapid oscillation (ie warmer temps/higher frequency.)

I think for (spring) tornadoes at least - the upper level winds are more an issue than surface temps and pressures, in that they turbo charge an enhanced convection and add rotation to storms. But they are all inherently connected, of course.
I know about the March tornado outbreak last year (I have a summary of the weather last year here, mostly on the severe weather). Also of note is that the NCDC says that damage was over a billion dollars.
Hi JFLORIDA & STL
Late Feb, March and April - I think it could be just as bad or worse for the central US. - with an early shift into a tropical pattern with more early, weaker storms than 98 (or 06) and Bermuda high more east then a busy, strong late hurricane season. Thats where I'm leaning now, even with this relatively late cool down.

hi t2
For those that are NOT watching the Super bowl...go to www.radiotrinbago.com..................... a musical treat is in progress. I'm there in 30 mins !!!!!!!!!!!
162. ryang
Thanks Pottery.
Good afternoon,

A gloomy day across south florida today with on and off showers all day.Also a tad bit on the cool side.
If the POAMA model is correct the atlantic basin will see La Nina conditions at some point during this upcoming hurricane season.




Hey H23 So I see La Nina is going to more than likely come into effect for Hurricane Season. Looks like it might be a interesting season this year. What do you think.
Is anyone here or is everyone getting ready for the Super bowl?
167. ryang
Come to my blog.
169. ryang
Yes.
catastropheadjuster whats up?

If La Nina conditions are present the overall atmosphere will indeed be more conducive for tropical developement but this could also mean a busy season number wise with earlier recurvature meaning north carolina and florida are probably to of my 2 picks at seeing some activity this season.It will all depend on how steering currents eventually set up.It really doesn't matter if we have 50 storms develope out in the middle of now were because the ones that actually make landfall are the ones that actually have the greatest impact.I never focus attention on numbers predicted cause it only takes one to ruin lives.Overall lets see how things evolve in the coming months and hopefully the U.S. is once again spared.

My best advice is just be ready come june1 with an emergency plan in place for you and your family.Adrian
171. ryang
Thanks 23.Nice post.
Yes We already have a plan and food stocked up. potted meat and vienne sausages last along time. and of course I've got other stuff to but I have a big storage bin that i keep things in and i stock up all winter long so I'm not doing it at the last minute like alot of folks do around here. I have never understood why they wait til the last minute and then there's alot of fights over things it gets really crazy to crazy for me.
Hi everyone
174. ryang
Hi TS2.
Well I will be back cause i have to go to the laundremat to do clothes washer tore up last night. Gosh I'm gonna have sooo much fun. LOL
Was Dora annular at any point?
CIMSS MIMIC DORA..Link
Was Dora annular at any point?


They claim it was,but given it's rapid weakening over the past 24h with no land interaction,I find that hard to believe.It just appeared Annular.
179. ryang
Hey Kris.
go Colts!
TayTay it was annular for a solid day & 1/2. It has weaked now...shear got her.



I's gonna look at the rain rates there at the super bowl on Nexrad, both they & NRL are down..
By the radar it's the rainest spot around:)
That link that Jeff left us on collecting the $10000, a must read... In there is this link, really good about the slowing of the gulf stream. Slowed 30% in the last 12 years.

I hear Prince is on:)
Yeap Prince is singing Purple Rain
Yeah Prince is singing Purple Rain
185. ryang
Hello.No one here,So i will update my blog.
Chicago Current Temp -1.2F..LOL!..Happy Homecoming Fans and Players! New Orleanian Peyton Wins MVP!..Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet!
Can't they put just a little bit of blue on this forecast for the year...somewhere???? Just to make us feel like we might not fry?

Eastern Australia - TCWC Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone Advise #1
==========================

Tropical Low
17.0S 146.2E - 20 knots 1003 hPa

moving southeast at 2 knots

The Tropical Low is centered about 46 km east of Cairns or 60 km north-northeast of Innisfail and should gradually intensify over the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone [Cat 1 / 35-45 kts] expected in 36 to 48 hours.

next Tropical Advise at about 7:00am UTC (5:00pm EST)

--------------
Central Indian Ocean - TCWC Perth

Tropical Low [1006 hPa]
location: 5S 96E (900 km north of Cocos Islands)

Tropical Cyclone Potential
=======================
Tuesday = Low
Wednesday = Moderate
Thursday = High

... Coldest air in over 2 years at Indianapolis...

Early this morning the temperature at the Indianapolis
International Airport fell to minus 4. This is the coldest
temperature recorded at the Airport since Christmas eve 2004 when
when a reading of minus 5 was recorded.


morning guys... go Colts!

Just before sunrise the temperature at the Indianapolis International Airport fell to minus 5. This is the coldest temperature recorded at the airport since Christmas Eve 2004 when the mercury also fell to minus 5. NWS Indianapolis.....

Nice cold reception for the Colts... But, They won the hot one!