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Groundhog's Day blizzard pounds U.S.; Category 4 Yasi hits Australia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:50 PM GMT on February 02, 2011

The great Groundhog's Day Blizzard of 2011 continues to pound a huge swath of the U.S. with heavy snows, destructive freezing rain, and dangerously cold and windy conditions. Over 1/2” of ice has caused power outages in Indianapolis, and up to .9” of ice has hit Columbus, Ohio. Ice amounts in excess of 1/2” have also affected Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey New York, and Pennsylvania. Blizzard conditions continue in Chicago, where heavy snows of up to two inches per hour in high winds have crippled the city's transportation system. As of 9am CST this morning, Chicago's O'Hare Airport had received 19.5” of snow, making it city's third greatest snowstorm on record. Only the January 2 - 4 1999 blizzard (21.6") and January 2 – 4, 1967 blizzard (23”) have dumped more snow on Chicago. Today's blizzard had stronger winds than Chicago's other two record snowstorms, and thus this storm is probably the worst snowstorm ever to affect the city, as far as impacts on travel go. Huge drifts in excess of 6 feet are common in the city, and residents are finding it difficult to leave their houses, much less travel on area roads. Winds last night at Chicago's Calumet Harbor were sustained at tropical storm force, 39 mph, with gusts to 51 mph, and high winds tore off part of a fiberboard roof panel behind home plate at Wrigley Field, home of the Chicago Cubs. The Chicago buoy, 10 miles offshore in Lake Michigan, had sustained winds of 54 mph, gusting to 66 mph, last night. Winds are slowly decreasing across Chicago, and the blizzard will be over by early afternoon.


Figure 1. Lake Shore Drive in downtown Chicago on the night of February 1, 2011. Image credit: Viewer uploaded photo from WGN.

According to the National Weather Service, since snow records began in 1886 in Chicago, there have been 43 winter storms that produced 10 inches or more of snow. A 10 inch snow occurs about once every 3 years. A 15 inch snow occurs only once about every 20 years. The closest back to back 10 inch
snows were March 25-26 and April 1-2, 1970 (6 days apart). The longest period of time without a 10 inch snow or greater was February 12, 1981 to January 1, 1999 (almost 18 years). The earliest 10 inch snow was November 25-26, 1895 and the latest 10 inch snow was April 1-2, 1970. The most recent 10 inch snow was January 9-10, 2009.

Chicago's 10 biggest Snowstorms:

1. 23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967
2. 21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999
3. 19.5 inches Feb 1-2, 2011
4. 19.2 inches Mar 25-26, 1930
5. 18.8 inches Jan 13-14, 1979
6. 16.2 inches Mar 7-8, 1931
7. 15.0 inches Dec 17-20, 1929
8. 14.9 inches Jan 30, 1939
9. 14.9 inches Jan 6-7, 1918
10. 14.3 inches Mar 25-26, 1970

The great storm's fury now turns to New England. Boston received 9.7” of snow as of 7am from the storm, and another 4 – 8” is on the way today. Heavy snows in excess of 6 inches are expected in a swath extending from central New York through Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine today. Up to 1/4” of ice is expected through New England along the southern edge of the heavy snow belt. Cities near the coast such as New York City and Philadelphia will receive mostly rain from the storm, though.

Some selected snowfall totals from the Groundhog's Day Blizzard of 2011, as of 9am EST:

Spring Grove, IL 20.8”
Miami, OK 20”
Jefferson City, MO 18.3”
S. Fort Scott, KS 18”
Tulsa, OK 15”
Schenectady, NY 9.6”
Boston, MA 9.7”
Detroit, MI 7.5”
Oklahoma City, OK 7”
West Hartford, CT 6.5”
Abilene, TX 6”
Cedar Rapids, IA 4.5”


Figure 2. Satellite image of the Groundhog's Day Blizzard of 2011, taken at 10am EST February 2. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Yasi hits Queensland, Australia
Tropical Cyclone Yasi roared inland over Queensland, Australia at 12:30am local time this morning as a strengthening Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds and a 930 mb central pressure. Yasi is incredibly strong, its winds falling just 5 mph short of Category 5 status. This makes the storm one of the top-ten strongest cyclones to hit Australia since accurate records began in 1970.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology had this to say about Yasi in their advisory last night:

YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN
EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN CAIRNS AND TOWNSVILLE.

THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING RECENT GENERATIONS.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 03:35 UTC February 2, 2011, as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite.

On Wednesday morning at 9:30am local time, Yasi hit tiny Willis Island, where a minimum pressure of 938 mb and a peak wind gust of 115 mph was observed before Yasi cut communications and damaged the radar.

Queensland faces three major threats from Yasi. The cyclone will bring torrential rainfall to a region with saturated soils that saw record flooding earlier this month. The latest rainfall forecast from NOAA using satellite-based rainfall estimates shows 4 – 6” of rain falling along Yasi's track over the next 24 hours. The GFS model is predicting that a wide swath of Queensland will receive 5 - 10 inches of rain over the next week, due to the combined effects of Yasi and a moist flow of tropical air over the region. Fortunately, Yasi is moving with a rapid forward speed, about 21 mph, and is not expected to linger over Queensland after landfall. The heaviest rainfall will miss Queensland's most populated regions to the south that had the worst flooding problems earlier this month, including the Australia's third largest city, Brisbane.

Yasi brought highly destructive winds to a region of coast between the cities of Cairns (population 150,000) and Townsville (population 200,000). Strong building codes have been in place in Queensland since the 1960s, which will help reduce the damage amounts. The fact that Yasi's eyewall missed these two major cities is lucky, since the coast is less populous between the cities.

A dangerous storm surge in excess of ten feet likely occurred along the left front quadrant of the storm where it came ashore. The tidal was going out when the storm struck, and the inundation from the storm surge will be about 1 meter (3 feet) less than it would have been had the storm hit at high tide.

Yasi is larger and more dangerous than Cyclone Larry of 2006, which hit Queensland as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Larry killed one person and caused $872 million in damage (2011 U.S. dollars.) Yasi will bring heavy rains to a region with soils already saturated from record rains, and may become a billion-dollar cyclone.


Figure 4. Radar image of Tropical Cyclone Yasi at landfall in Queensland, Australia. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Links to follow:

Live streaming video from Channel 9 in Cairns, Australia

A new look for wunderground
The Weather Underground was the first commercial weather company to set up an Internet web site, way back in 1995. In the sixteen years since, we've steadily expanded our content, but today—in honor of Groundhog's Day—we've launched our first major site re-design. The WunderPress blog has a introduction to the new site, including a slide show that explains the new layout. You can click through the demo by hitting the “>” button. The launch of the redesigned wunderground.com also features our unique forecasting technology, BestForecast. Utilizing Weather Underground's network of personal weather stations (the largest in the world), BestForecast provides the industry's most localized weather forecasts by producing a forecast for every place in the world that has an airport or personal weather station—over 19,000 locations worldwide. We also provide the latest National Weather Service forecast for each county in the U.S., so users can choose which forecast works best for them. Coming soon: verification statistics, so you can see exactly how well the forecasts are doing for your location. We realize that not everyone will be happy with the newly redesigned site, so we still offer the old design at classic.wunderground.com.

Jeff Masters
BLIZZARD!
BLIZZARD!
Blizzard in SE Kansas. The bird bath will be swallowed by nightfall for sure...
Windswept
Windswept
A desolate stretch of highway 32 in NE Nebraska
School's Out!
School's Out!
A wild bus ride home today! High winds and heavy snow in NE Nebraska. Can't believe I'm actually out here driving, much less snapping pictures...
2011 Chicago Blizzard
2011 Chicago Blizzard

Winter Weather Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Amazing images. Amazing storm. And yet another 100-year event. Interesting...
My goodness Mother Nature is wide awake and very busy now. Prayers for those in Yasi's path and for those stuck in frozen cars and those with no heat or power in the Winter weather here in the States. Rolling blackouts here and all we have is unusually cold weather for the Gulf coast.
So, where do I go to talk about how much I hate the new format? It's terrible. It looks like something from USA Today, or the printed sheets they give you at hotels about the weather. Please don't dumb the site down like this. I hate picture forecasts! They are usually just spit out by a computer and are unclear or inaccurate. I want to read the official NWS forecast right off the bat, not have a bunch of silly graphics. On a scale of 1 to 10 I give the new look a -5.
This is very interesting.... Yasi went SW then W then WSW. Yasi tracks along S17 from E150 to E147 then heads WSW.

With this, I am off to bed. Goodnight all... Say a prayer for the people of North Queensland.

With the light of day, the true story of destruction will be all revealed.
The news just reported that there have been unofficial gust reports of 290km/hr (181.25mph).

ABC News
That winter storm is ridiculous!!! How does it compare to the Superstorm of 1993? Seems reminiscent of it except we haven't received any hurricane force winds or rain from it in South FL as we did in 1993...
Try the Ol "Wu-Fresca Lite" Classic wunderground.

It will save a few ER visits today from the stress easily.

classic.wunderground.com.

Quoting Patrap:
Try the Ol "Wu-Fresca Lite" Classic wunderground.

It will save a few ER visits today from the stress easily.

classic.wunderground.com.



Are people really stressing over the website when people are dying out there? LOL!
Quoting Patrap:
Try the Ol "Wu-Fresca Lite" Classic wunderground.

It will save a few ER visits today from the stress easily.

classic.wunderground.com.



Yeah, I'm there now...hopefully they will keep classic as an option.
As the Impact continues inland ,,were going to get first light Pics and video of a scene that may be disturbing in a few hours.


Right now many are in the thick of Yasi's Wrath.

The Power of the Sea and Air is now transferring the energy to the Human side of things.




The Dawn cant come fast nuff.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Are people really stressing over the website when people are dying out there? LOL!


Not stressing. Just wondering why they chose to make their website, which was great, terrible. And by the way, I live in Kansas City and just went through this storm...it was a bad snowstorm but I don't think your dramatic words are really justified.
See, their topography is excellent for wearing down storms.

I've noticed several hills and mountains in the background on videos, even right up to the coast.

Nothing like that anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico, lol. We just have flat land.
Quoting rwdobson:


Not stressing. Just wondering why they chose to make their website, which was great, terrible. And by the way, I live in Kansas City and just went through this storm...it was a bad snowstorm but I don't think your dramatic words are really justified.


Really...there are people dying out there...in Egypt, in Australia and yes, here. Sorry if I think stressing over minor website changes is silly but well...it is what it is...if you think my words are too dramatic then take a look around...I think what's actually happening is much more dramatic than my words...
Did you happen to read you can go to the classic view? That should be enough to end your rant.  Thx.
Quoting rwdobson:


Not stressing. Just wondering why they chose to make their website, which was great, terrible. And by the way, I live in Kansas City and just went through this storm...it was a bad snowstorm but I don't think your dramatic words are really justified.

Quoting RecordSeason:
See, their topography is excellent for wearing down storms.

I've noticed several hills and mountains in the background on videos, even right up to the coast.

Nothing like that anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico, lol. We just have flat land.

Great for wearing down storms, but terrible for flooding. Orographic lift can add so much to precipitation amounts and the sloped land contributes to runoff too.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Really...there are people dying out there...in Egypt, in Australia and yes, here. Sorry if I think stressing over minor website changes is silly but well...it is what it is...if you think my words are too dramatic then take a look around...I think what's actually happening is much more dramatic than my words...


I can understand his frustration. I have over 200 relatives in Australia and was quite concerned for them and others. and Aussie actually lives near some of them. I was not able to get on WU for more than an hour. I couldn't even leave a message for assistance. I have received 6 E-mails from other bloggers asking me for help on how to get on. So it was an inconvenience for many people. And no, I didn't know about "Classic view" until Patrap and others told me about it. I know you too well. You are too nice a guy to castigate someone for their concern.
Quoting RecordSeason:
They are reporting on Egypt now, of all things.

Idiot woman they interviewed in Egypt is blaming this on the U.S. and Israel.

I guess these people LIKE to be enslaved to Islam, which is what's going to happen if we have a Muslim Caliphate forming there.

FoxNews.com called; they'd like you to bring your Islamophobic rant back there where it belongs, instead of over here on a weather site. ;-)
Kiwis caught in Cyclone Yasi with 'nowhere to go'

By Isaac Davison, Amelia Wade and Anna Leask
5:30 AM Thursday Feb 3, 2011

Hundreds of Kiwis in Australia were last night caught in the path of Cyclone Yasi. Here is how some waited for the hit.
Medical personal evacuate high-care patients from Cairns Base Hospital to Australian Air Force aircraft. Photo / Getty Images
Expand
Medical personal evacuate high-care patients from Cairns Base Hospital to Australian Air Force aircraft. Photo / Getty Images

'I'VE NEVER BEEN SO FRIGHTENED'

Former Auckland police officer Sandy Beckett said he would rather take on a crocodile than sit through Cyclone Yasi.

"You can fight the crocodiles off and you know they are dangerous and you don't go near the sharp end. But the cyclone's going to smash us and there's nothing we can do about it," he said from his Cairns home yesterday.

"I have experienced many things as a policeman but I have never been so frightened for my family as I am today, and want this over and done with as soon as possible."

Mr Beckett said the atmosphere before the cyclone's arrival was "surreal".

He has experienced cyclones before, but nothing close to a category 5.

"When we saw the size of it I didn't think it would stay at category 4 for long. Doesn't matter much to us the difference between 220 and 300km/h, you're going to get smashed anyway. It is scary when you're talking that sort of speed.

"And it doesn't matter where it's going to hit, it's got an 800km-wide front, it's going to smash everything."

Mr Beckett and his family were last night at home, waiting the cyclone out.

"We've got nowhere to go. They've evacuated 30,000 people, so there's nowhere to go. It's quite amazing when you think of that many people being moved out."

He has stocked up on supplies and has a satellite phone, generator and gas cooker for when the power goes out.

"I have moved the kids' sleeping areas closer to the end of the house that will not be affected by a possible toppling of a 150-year- old mango tree that would crush that end of the house. I don't know what else I can do but wait."

STAYING PUT AND HOPING

We're all sitting around playing cards, just waiting for it to hit.New Zealander Matt Thompson last night realised it was too late to run from the storm and everyone had to stay put and prepare.

"There's no traffic at all because there's been a warning out today that you're not allowed to drive around. The only person we've seen is a man who came knocking at our door to make sure we're all prepared. He let us know that if fire alarms go off we can't leave the building, we just have to stay inside.

"If it gets really bad and all the windows go, we've got to move into the stairwell of the building and hide in there until it's over."

He said they have been warned not to go outside during the eye of the storm.

"If the eye of the storm comes over Cairns, no one's allowed out. The eye is going to take an hour to pass, so if the cyclone lasts for five hours and then it's calm, then you're not allowed out because it's the eye. You have to wait until you get an update."

Mr Thompson and his partner, Fiona Jarden, have moved from his home to a friend's apartment on the third floor in a building four blocks back from the water's edge.

"We should be pretty safe. But we've got the windows taped up, a gas-cooker, batteries, torches and everything so we're prepared. It's far better to be over-prepared than under-prepared because none of us have been though a cyclone before so none of us have any idea what to expect."

He said everyone seems anxious, nervous and excited for the cyclone to hit.

"I haven't really met anyone who's too stressed about it because everyone's pretty prepared because the warning system's so advanced ...

"We're all sitting around playing cards, just waiting for it to hit. But there's no one to be seen and no cars on the street."

WAITING FOR THE HIT

Christchurch woman Louise Moevao moved to Cairns not long before the September 4 earthquake hit her hometown. But yesterday she was battening down for something much worse.

"We thought we were lucky, missing the earthquake," she said.

Ms Moevao was gathered in a house on high ground with about 30 other people, waiting for Yasi to hit.

"Most of us live in low-lying homes so we just came to one house to wait it out together," she said.

"It's horrible. It's only 2pm but it feels like it's been 12 hours, waiting is the worst."

Ms Moevao, 34, has experienced other cyclones, but only category 1 and 2.

"This one's going to be a lot scarier. We've put aside a couple of rooms for us all to bunk down in when the storm actually crosses. As long as we're sensible I think we'll be okay.

"We've listened to all the instructions. Everyone that's come here has come with all their perishable things so we can eat them before they go off.

"We've filled up all the containers we can find with water and filled up the bath. The bathroom is full of water.

"None of us really know what to expect. We think there'll be a lot of wind, perhaps it will move the roof of our house. But we're expecting that we're going to be okay."

'IT WAS A MASS EXODUS'

Rush Pathak, who is originally from Wellington, said it was "completely surreal" as everyone fled the city.

"I don't know if you've watched one of those doomsday movies where everyone's running because there's an asteroid or something heading towards the Earth, it was kind of like that. It was mass exodus...

"It's still really bizarre. It's really hard to make out that something massive is making its way over us because it's still sunny outside and I'm in bare feet, shorts and a T-shirt."

He said Cairns was deserted.

"It was mass hysteria yesterday but this morning it was a f***ing ghost town. It was really, really bizarre. The city's completely empty and there was this long line of cars driving in one direction towards the hills.

"There's tape everywhere, there are sandbags everywhere. Some people are staying in, like our neighbours, but most of the rest of the city has been evacuated."

Mr Pathak said there was nothing to do but wait for Cyclone Yasi to arrive.

"We just sat down and had lunch like it's normal everyday life, except everyone's brought together for this mammoth deadly storm ... It is always in the back of your mind. As soon as you get a little bit of wind, you wonder whether it's the wall of wind but then it dies down. Then you get a bit of rain and you think, 'Oh, there it is'. But then it dies down."

'I'M VERY SCARED NOW'

You know something is coming and all you can

do is wait.In Townsville last night, Megan Waitai and her family were prepared, but terrified by what they were about to experience.

"We had already made the decision to stay here and I must admit I'm very scared now. You can prepare yourself as best you can but waiting for the unexpected is not a nice feeling," she said.

"I've found it a bit like a rollercoaster ride with my emotions because you know something is coming and all you can do is wait. I'm trying not to let my son see how scared I'm feeling about it and trying to be normal."

Ms Waitai and her partner were in Townsville when Cyclone Larry hit in 2006.

"My partner is a linesman and helped with the reconnection of power when Larry went through so he has seen the kind of damage that can be caused."

But last night, they were just watching and waiting.

"We've been keeping in contact with family back home and will keep doing so until we no longer can. The mobile is fully charged and ready and I suppose that's all we can do."

EVACUATION CENTRES FULL

Blair Whittaker, who is originally from Kawakawa, says he has no idea what to expect even though he was in Cairns when Cyclone Larry hit in 2006.

"There is a feeling of deja vu ... but this is going to be the biggest one ever so we really don't know what it will be like."

As Mr Whittaker waited, he said the weather felt extremely eerie.

"All the birds are chirping and the sun's out. It's just quiet and still. It's such a nice day that you really can't imagine that it's going to get as crazy as it does."

He said all the evacuation centres were full as terrified people leave their houses.

"If you're not there now you can't leave your house, so you've just got to ride it out the best you can ...

"We've been getting a lot of messages from people saying, 'just leave'. But there's nowhere you can go. With a cyclone that big there's nowhere you can get to in a hurry. You don't know where it's going to hit, so away we go."

He has been evacuated from his home near Cairns' CBD to a friend's house on higher ground.

"It's pretty tense here really, no one's quite sure what's going to happen. But at the same time we're a little relieved that the cyclone's heading further south. All we can do is wait and hope."

LUCKY TO BE OUT

One of the first people to be evacuated ahead of Cyclone Yasi, Tim Roxborough says he feels lucky to be out of the storm's path.

"Everyone is relieved they had the foresight to get out fast. Especially when you see some people in Cairns now, stuck in their homes, trying to get out, having road accidents because of panic."

The former Auckland-based radio host was forced to leave Lindeman Island in the Whitsundays, the first landmass Yasi is expected to touch.

Mr Roxborough, who works for the resort Club Med, said the entire island "packed up" on a perfect, cloudless day.

"That was the surreal thing. It's not like it was windy and raining and everyone was starting to panic. We posed for photos on a blue-sky day, then left, knowing what was coming."

He travelled by boat to the Australian mainland, before taking a 16-hour bus ride to the Sunshine Coast.

The island was now a ghost town, with every hotel guest, staff member and resident - 300 in total - relocated to the mainland.

"No one's left on the island - the first time in 100 years of there being a resort that it's been completely evacuated."

Mr Roxborough said the island had survived a Category 3 cyclone in March last year. "Now it's just time to wait and see."
Quoting RecordSeason:
They are reporting on Egypt now, of all things.

Idiot woman they interviewed in Egypt is blaming this on the U.S. and Israel.

I guess these people LIKE to be enslaved to Islam, which is what's going to happen if we have a Muslim Caliphate forming there.

It's not like we give them 1.5% of their GDP every year as a free handout or anything...

Louisiana could have used that 1.5 billion per year to build and maintain levees. Or we could have made a real modern infrastructure in the U.S. 1.5 billion wouldn't do everything, but "per year"? You could make a lot of mono-rails for that over a decade or two.



Yeah there are idiots over here too. I don't think its wise to say that about millions of Muslims because one person who was interviewed that was being dumb happened to be a Muslim.

That's like you go and get all angry against black people because a black man breaks into a gas station.

American's say the same ridiculous junk about Middle Eastern people too... "Why don't we just drop a nuke on all of of them dang turban heads". Don't tell me how many times Ive heard people say that around here, and many of them weren't joking when they said it.

Seriously man, stop pointing the prejudice finger...
Wow, those poor people in Australia! That tape on the windows is giving them a false sense of security. I hope the home with 30 people have several large bathrooms. God help them!
Street View of Kurrimine Beach where Yasi came ashore

Looks like most of the area is at least 20 feet (according to Google Earth) above sea level so hopefully the storm surge had minimal impact. Those 155 mph winds though, oh man....
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah there are idiots over here too. I don't think its wise to say that about millions of Muslims because one person who was interviewed that was being dumb happened to be a Muslim.

That's like you go and get all angry against black people because a black man breaks into a gas station.

American's say the same ridiculous junk about Middle Eastern people too... "Why don't we just drop a nuke on all of of them dang turban heads". Don't tell me how many times Ive heard people say that around here, and many of them weren't joking when they said it.

Seriously man, stop pointing the prejudice finger...


Well said; prejudice is part of the human condition and oddly, the most "religious", regardless of the faith, are the ones that carry the biggest bag of bigotry. We can't be to blame, so it must be someone else...
***Texas Residents***

Temperatures finally getting into the lower 20’s now with still some sites in the upper teens. Feel most locations will not get above freezing today with the freezing line now all the way to just north of Brownsville and incoming cloud decks. Many locations will likely not get above 30 this afternoon and needless to say the hard freeze warning will be in effect. Many locations have already gone 20 hours below freezing and this extreme cold and duration is starting to impact power supplies and water supplies.

Power:

Natural gas pipelines feeding power generation plants are freezing due to the extreme cold and very cold wind chills causing power plants to trip offline. ERCOT has declared a state wide power emergency and to keep the Texas power grid operating properly as ordered rotating power outages across the entire state. Power outages will last from 10-45 minutes and may occur multiple times to help limit the strain on the power grid. Strong winds and ice accumulation on large power lines is also causing power disruptions. With temperatures remaining extremely cold into Saturday periodic power outages are likely.

Water:

Main water supplies are intact and functioning properly, however some businesses and homes that did not take the proper actions to protect supply lines have frozen lines this morning and no water. These lines may rupture as they thaw causing extensive property damage. If you have no water supply your lines are likely frozen at some location along the line. You can try a blow drier on interior pipes if you can find the frozen section.

Quoting SQUAWK:
Gotta love the drama queens. Always stressing over something they have no control over and no effect on. Then try to pass a guilt trip on others that do not see life as they do. But they are fun to watch.


I know you're so caring and compassionate...that's one of the things I really like about you...
get back to the weather coverage!!!
.."If you get long term payments but you need cash now,"..
Also hate the new format--will be using the classic view....
Quoting Grothar:


I can understand his frustration. I have over 200 relatives in Australia and was quite concerned for them and others. and Aussie actually lives near some of them. I was not able to get on WU for more than an hour. I couldn't even leave a message for assistance. I have received 6 E-mails from other bloggers asking me for help on how to get on. So it was an inconvenience for many people. And no, I didn't know about "Classic view" until Patrap and others told me about it. I know you too well. You are too nice a guy to castigate someone for their concern.


I'm not castigating anyone Groth. I just don't sweat the small stuff and was only stating what is actually happening out there. I didn't embellish the truth or tell any lies...Groundhog day must be some sort of sensitivity booster...
Quoting Floodman:


Well said; prejudice is part of the human condition and oddly, the most "religious", regardless of the faith, are the ones that carry the biggest bag of bigotry. We can't be to blame, so it must be someone else...



Oh of course. The fact is, even if you know the truth, that doesn't elevate you above others. Human beings are all flawed and we all need a lot of work and a lot of help. Until we begin realizing that, and stop looking down on people because of their religious belief, their social class, or their skin color, or physical beauty, or lack. thereof, things will never improve.

I may know its true that its better to give and receive, but its not always easy to live what I know is true and what I preach.

Truth does not elevate you above others.

The same way being more educated and more knowledgeable doesn't give you an excuse to discriminate.


The more we elevate ourselves above other and swell with pride, the more stupid and blind we become to our own flaws and the bigger they become.





Just look back into American history. Some of the biggest hate groups, such as the Ku Klux Klan believed they were supposedly supporting moral purity and uprightness, and that sin on the world came form black people, it was all black people's fault in the Klan's eyes.


However in their blindness. The organization members were chalked full of murders, rapists, child abusers, drunkards, and torturers... Its no wonder they were so blind to their own problems because of their prideful superiority complex they had towards black people.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I'm not castigating anyone Groth. I just don't sweat the small stuff and was only stating what is actually happening out there. I didn't embellish the truth or tell any lies...Groundhog day must be some sort of sensitivity booster...


I hear ya HJ. I'm so old I don't even cast a shadow anymore.
It sounds like Tully has experienced catastrophic damage.

It''s hard to tell because neither radar has a good fix with the rain so hard, but I think they are still in the back eye wall.

They said lots of houses and pubs have had their roofs blown away.
Anyways... Back to weather...


Who else thinks the long term GFS prediction of snow in Florida is a bunch of crap and that the model will shift much warmer in later runs?
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I know you're so caring and compassionate...that's one of the things I really like about you...


Well, actually, I am. I do care about the people I know and the ones that I can actually help. I am not going to get all teary eyed over something I have no control over and can do nothing about. Using your logic, there were supposedly 27,000 children that died last night from malnutrition and related diseases. TWENTY-SEVEN THOUSAND IN ONE NIGHT. If you need a cause to cry over, try that one. I tend to be a realist. If I can do nothing about it, I am not going to lose sleep over it.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Anyways... Back to weather...


Who else thinks the long term GFS prediction of snow in Florida is a bunch of crap and that the model will shift much warmer in later runs?

*Raises hand*
junky.... PLEASE...count to 10.... take a deep breath.....

ok?

:)



Yo Patrap,
Take a look at our local New Orleans radar, lol, of what's already showing in this SW flow aloft...
Might get interesting after all - still at freezing here after Houma fell to 28F low rather late this morn around 8:30 AM with very strong CAA (at the Ag station)... Might not be reaching the sfc, but saw reports elsewhere of flurries in NW LA...

LOL, those of you in real snow country dealing with da blizzard, try not to laugh at us SE LA coastal residents minor excitement at any chance of frzn precip... More LOL, then again, Houma's record snowfall of 16-18" on Feb 15 1895 is higher than most inland stations that see it more frequently!
Cheers!
OK!!
I spent an hour or so on the new Improved format.
Then I went back and forth between the "old" and the "new" for a while.
Now, I am back in the "old" format, Permanently>
Thanks for the option.
The new version is pretty bad.

Here in the Dallas/Fort Worth, we had a major Ice Storm. Here at my house, I got over an inch and a half of Ice, under 3-4 inches of Snow. The road is still frozen solid this morning with an air temperature of 13 °F and a Wind chill of -5 °F.

So much ice is on the road right now, that you cannot even see it.
Hiya Doc,,

Deja Vu Man as I was just on BFOTR's entry seeing yas.

Yes indeed,,holding mid 30's here and that stuff is a coming in .

"Whoa Boy" az Justin would of said.

Southern eye wall is starting to collapse. Definitely in a weakening phase now.

Well, gonna sneak in here and ask, does anyone have a problem with getting the blog drop down menu to stay up long enough to actually click on it?
Quoting Jedkins01:
Anyways... Back to weather...


Who else thinks the long term GFS prediction of snow in Florida is a bunch of crap and that the model will shift much warmer in later runs?
I dunno.

This was the GFS 12 day forecast snowcover from the 12 UTC run on Jan 21. While we aren't likely to see 6 inches on snow over central LA in the next day or so, we are most likely going to see some snow across most of the area GFS call for it 12 days ago. Not a terribly bad miss for 12 days out.

Quoting DocNDswamp:
Yo Patrap,
Take a look at our local New Orleans radar, lol, of what's already showing in this SW flow aloft...
Might get interesting after all - still at freezing here after Houma fell to 28F low rather late this morn around 8:30 AM with very strong CAA (at the Ag station)... Might not be reaching the sfc, but saw reports elsewhere of flurries in NW LA...

LOL, those of you in real snow country dealing with da blizzard, try not to laugh at us SE LA coastal residents minor excitement at any chance of fzn precip... More LOL, then again, Houma's record snowfall of 16-18" on Feb 15 1895 is higher than most inland stations that see it more frequently!
Cheers!
Like I said yesterday, 2 inches here causes the same issues that 12 inches does up north.
And a possible mixed precip heading directly for Houma in last couple of frames.

echoechoechoechoecho
(yep, that still works)
Quoting Jedkins01:
Anyways... Back to weather...


Who else thinks the long term GFS prediction of snow in Florida is a bunch of crap and that the model will shift much warmer in later runs?


I agree it's a bunch of C*&^.
Hey, Atmo.
I am having trouble getting the "original" version of the blog to stay engaged.
Keeps reverting to the "new" when I drop out and come back on.
How to fix that?
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Well, gonna sneak in here and ask, does anyone have a problem with getting the blog drop down menu to stay up long enough to actually click on it?


Hey, Eyes. Just use this link and add to your favorites. It brings you back to the old format.



Link
Hello All from Sydney Australia - sitting up lstening to Qld ABC Radio - lots of people ringing in currently experiencing Yasi - people sound quite terrified but amazingly Stoic
Quoting pottery:
Hey, Atmo.
I am having trouble getting the "original" version of the blog to stay engaged.
Keeps reverting to the "new" when I drop out and come back on.
How to fix that?
No idea. I've been using the new one without any probs since last night.
Quoting atmoaggie:
echoechoechoechoecho
(yep, that still works)


Where is your head right now????
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Eyes. Just use this link and add to your favorites. It brings you back to the old format.



Link

Permanently ??
This image from yesterday may go down as one of my favorite non-hurricane weather satellite images ever:

Click for much larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Quoting pottery:

Permanently ??


No, apparently not.
Naughty, Naughty....
Event Diary: North Qld ABC Mp3 file audio


IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area from Cooktown to Proserpine and inland to
the Northern Territory border are requested to USE the Standard Emergency
Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 27
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 2:58am EST on Thursday the 3rd of February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cooktown to
Proserpine, extending west across the tropical interior to the Northern
Territory border.

The Cyclone Warning is cancelled between Cape Flattery and Cooktown.

At 3:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 4 was estimated to be 140
kilometres south southwest of Cairns and 95 kilometres southwest of Innisfail
and moving west southwest at 33 kilometres per hour.

YASI IS MOVING INLAND FROM TULLY BUT REMAINS A DANGEROUS CYCLONE.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi, CATEGORY 4, will weaken as it continues to move in a
west-southwesterly direction towards the Georgetown area during the morning.

HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES and large waves will continue between Innisfail and
Bowen and sea levels may again exceed the high water mark on the morning high
tide.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 260 km/h between Cairns and Ingham and
the adjacent ranges will extend inland and weaken.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 km/h between Cairns and Ayr will
spread inland overnight.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr are occurring in remaining coastal areas
between Cooktown and Proserpine, and are forecast to extend through to Mt Isa
during the day.

Winds are forecast to gradually ease about the east coast during the morning.

FLOODING RAINS between Cairns and Proserpine will gradually extend inland.

FLOOD WARNINGS are current for a number of rivers between Cairns and Mackay.


People in the path of the very dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in
a secure shelter, above the expected water level, while the very destructive
winds continue.
- Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone; very
destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time.
- Follow the evacuation advice or directions of Police, Emergency Services
personnel and local authorities.

People in remaining areas between Coktown and Proserpine and extending west
across the tropical interior to the Northern Territory border, should complete
preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 3:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 18.1 degrees South 145.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 33 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 260 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 941 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 4:00 am EST Thursday 03 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Eyes. Just use this link and add to your favorites. It brings you back to the old format.



Link


Ok thanks Gro, just didnt want to appear to be a non-comformist, and ya know that not gonna let us keep that old format very long...
Pressure up 11 mb since Landfall..

The Best trend in Days
Site Look = Very Nice!
When you quote someone your text gets cut off at the right
OK, re: previous post on "original" format.
I got it sorted, thanks.
Seems to be good now, locked in to the familiar version.
Hope they leave it there....
Quoting Neapolitan:
This image from yesterday may go down as one of my favorite non-hurricane weather satellite images ever:

Click for much larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Today's should be more interesting, from a snowcover/albedo perspective...and less clouds.
Thanks Patrap
Quoting ThunderTime:
Hello All from Sydney Australia - sitting up lstening to Qld ABC Radio - lots of people ringing in currently experiencing Yasi - people sound quite terrified but amazingly Stoic


I'm listening as well...great source of information. Man in Tully looked up through the eye when it past over and saw the stars overhead...off course then the backside hit and he said it got pretty bad when those winds turned around...
Dr. Masters,
The WunderPress blog has a introduction to the new site, including a slide show that explains the new layout.

Has anyone let you know they have removed that blog?
Quoting pottery:
OK, re: previous post on "original" format.
I got it sorted, thanks.
Seems to be good now, locked in to the familiar version.
Hope they leave it there....


Can get the new one to do anything right. Been trying all morning.
Quoting atmoaggie:
And a possible mixed precip heading directly for Houma in last couple of frames.



Wow, atmo. That's cool.
:)
and here we go


Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through
Friday morning...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from Thursday afternoon
through Friday morning.

An upper level storm system approaching from the west will
combine with increasing moisture and cold temperatures in the
atmosphere to generate a mix of snow... sleet... and freezing rain
across southeast Texas Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.
The precipitation is expected to begin Thursday afternoon
especially across the southern half of the area... and spread area
wide by early evening. The wintry mix will continue Thursday night
then taper off around mid morning Friday.

A mixture of snow... sleet... and freezing rain is expected east of
a line from Matagorda to downtown Houston to Rye in Liberty
County. Over the coastal sections of Brazoria County... and most of
Galveston... Chambers... and Liberty counties this could end up a
primarily ice event with significant glazing on roadways. To the
north and west of this line... a mix of snow and sleet are
expected... with all snow across the northwest half of southeast
Texas.

Snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected... with
locally higher amounts possible. In the freezing rain threat
area... ice accumulations of up to one-tenth of an inch are
expected. This includes the southern and eastern portions of the
Metro Houston area and the Galveston area as well.

Surface temperatures are expected to be in the mid 20s to lower
30s through the duration of the event. This means that
roadways... especially elevated surfaces like bridges and
overpasses... are much more likely to ice over than during the
events southeast Texas experienced last winter. Roadways will
likely become icy and hazardous Thursday night and Friday morning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.


Yes indeed, Atmo and Pat (and howdy Barefoot),

Down here my best chance seeing any frozen stuff will be with the early onset, while still cold enough aloft and sfc... before the ugly cold rain sets in with the warming aloft next couple days...

As for early next week's cold blast, likely the moisture will be gone before freezing temps (aloft and sfc) reach N Gulf region, but we'll just hafta see... I wouldn't completely discount a brief changeover to sleet / snow mix with tapering precip bands though...

Always a few surprises with arctic air masses and N Gulf coastal region... ;)

Okay, back to current flurry - sleet pellet watch... shaping up quite a bit earlier than thought, although feel little will reach the ground to observe at this stage until better saturated...
also when you bring up the US temp map, you cant even click any state like the old version to see temps elswhere
Now that is ugly.

77. RitaEvac 12:51 PM EST on February 02, 2011
Good morning North Pole, TX (DFW, TX)...

Rolling blackouts, temps near 16 F, wind chill factors near -2F..Snow flurries..Mostly cloudy skies and many major roads and highways snow or ice covered..

Welcome to the DFW Metroplex..
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Well, gonna sneak in here and ask, does anyone have a problem with getting the blog drop down menu to stay up long enough to actually click on it?

I can't use that drop down either. I use the links on the bottom of the page. Have been going back and forth between the new and classic sites. I'm leaning to keeping the classic format, much easier to use.
I'd think the NWS at Lake Charles will be issuing a winter weather advisory shortly for SE TX and SW LA.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I'm not castigating anyone Groth. I just don't sweat the small stuff and was only stating what is actually happening out there. I didn't embellish the truth or tell any lies...Groundhog day must be some sort of sensitivity booster...
I believe it is going on to a New Moon. Lunatics, like myself, are sensitive to the pull and it does cause sniping about little things. I have my tin-foil hat on so it doesn't bother me so much:)
Quoting RitaEvac:
When you quote someone your text gets cut off at the right


Go to the Tools bar on your browser. Hit "Compatability settings" and wait. It should bring all the text back. Close your browser and repeat it. It shoud be OK.
Yeah, it be dry at the Surface Uptown Doc.

But we shall see,,that warm Layer does come in aloft as the NWS says,so tonights the night if we going to see something I guess.
Thanks Grothar, but I took another route and went back to Classic, too many flaws with the new version
Now dont make EYES get a switch to ya! A little patience...pretty please.....:)
Quoting atmoaggie:
And a possible mixed precip heading directly for Houma in last couple of frames.



Doesn't look like any of that is falling to the surface in the face of a large dewpoint depression from this morning's sounding from KLIX. Freezing temperatures only from 950mb to the surface with a large inversion in the mid levels.
The Wu Nation Wins a Round in the Clash of the "New Format Revolution"

Wunderpress Blog is back OPEN for comments

"Notice Anything Different?"
Gonna get nasty in SE TX
From New Orleans, LA...WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BEGINNING TONIGHT...

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...COMBINED WITH A COLD AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION...IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

LIGHT SLEET COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHSHORE ...RIVER PARISHES...AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. ACCUMULATION OF SLEET IN THIS AREA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST...OVER THE NORTHSHORE...BATON ROUGE METRO...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...A MIX OF LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...BUT TRAVEL COULD BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGER IMPACT FOR THE BATON ROUGE METRO...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHSHORE BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL POTENTIALLY CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR BY THE END OF THE EVENT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY.

Link
Quoting RitaEvac:
Gonna get nasty in SE TX

YES, indeed. A Winter Storm Watch is up for y'all. It would not surprise me to see 3-6" in a widespread swath from North Central TX all the way to the S TX coast.

Welcome to the Super Storm Feb 2011 PT II
Was hoping for snow rather than ice, snow is more fun but ice is dangerous and not as pretty
Also snow in the forecast for Pensacola, FL...Link
ABC News: Yasi

It's almost sunrise there. They are out of power from Cairns southward, and sounds like really bad damage in Tully.
... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through
Friday morning...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from Thursday afternoon
through Friday morning.

An upper level storm system approaching from the west will
combine with increasing moisture and cold temperatures in the
atmosphere to generate a mix of snow... sleet... and freezing rain
across southeast Texas Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.
The precipitation is expected to begin Thursday afternoon
especially across the southern half of the area... and spread area
wide by early evening. The wintry mix will continue Thursday night
then taper off around mid morning Friday.

A mixture of snow... sleet... and freezing rain is expected east of
a line from Matagorda to downtown Houston to Rye in Liberty
County. Over the coastal sections of Brazoria County... and most of
Galveston... Chambers... and Liberty counties this could end up a
primarily ice event with significant glazing on roadways. To the
north and west of this line... a mix of snow and sleet are
expected... with all snow across the northwest half of southeast
Texas.

Snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected... with
locally higher amounts possible. In the freezing rain threat
area... ice accumulations of up to one-tenth of an inch are
expected. This includes the southern and eastern portions of the
Metro Houston area and the Galveston area as well.

Surface temperatures are expected to be in the mid 20s to lower
30s through the duration of the event. This means that
roadways... especially elevated surfaces like bridges and
overpasses... are much more likely to ice over than during the
events southeast Texas experienced last winter. Roadways will
likely become icy and hazardous Thursday night and Friday morning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Was hoping for snow rather than ice, snow is more fun but ice is dangerous and not as pretty
Sorry, Rita, just be very careful. This may get quiet ugly in S TX especially.

Newsradio KRLD 1080 AM in the DFW Metroplex have dubbed this weather episode "Super-Storm 2011"
Quoting Bordonaro:

YES, indeed. A Winter Storm Watch is up for y'all. It would not surprise me to see 3-6" in a widespread swath from North Central TX all the way to the S TX coast.

Welcome to the Super Storm Feb 2011 PT II
Hello Bord..Did you see the GFS..Look at the last few frames..It lookks like an invasLinkion from the North Pole...
day late dollar short uptxcoast, already know in here
Quoting hydrus:
Hello Bord..Did you see the GFS..Look at the last few frames..It lookks like an invasLinkion from the North Pole...I just saw that, OMG :o)
Quoting Patrap:
Stay Classy KRLD...
Link enclosed for your viewing and listening pleasure Link
Quoting Drakoen:


Doesn't look like any of that is falling to the surface in the face of a large dewpoint depression from this morning's sounding from KLIX. Freezing temperatures only from 950mb to the surface with a large inversion in the mid levels.
Well, a reliable source said 30 minutes ago that they were seeing flurries in Mandeville (20 miles west of KASD).

But, yeah, is quite shallow. 10 to 20 dBz is all we'll see today.
People in Townsville are reporting conditions are worsening now as Yasi moves inland. They are caught in the large backside of this storm.
The NHC just released their Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Karl. There weren't a lot of changes: the storm is still listed as a Cat 3 with maximum winds of 110 knots and a minimum pressure of 956 mb. Among the highlights:
  • After passing over the Yucatan, Karl winds rose by 65 knots in just 30 hours, which is more than double the threshold for rapid intensification. During this time, Karl's eye shrank from 20 nm to 8 nm.
  • Karl is the strongest hurricane, and the only major hurricane, ever recorded in the Bay of Campeche.
  • 22 deaths and about $206 million in damage were caused by Karl.
  • Karl was at or above TS strength a few hours longer than previously thought, though the storm was at hurricane strength for a few hours less than previously thought.
  • Karl's ACE is increased slightly from 5.8 to 6.25 (though the storm's HDP drops from 4.48 to 4.135).
  • Overall seasonal ACE is increased just a bit to 164.11.
Now we just wait for TCRs for Igor and Tomas, two of the season's most complex storms.
107:

The south side has always been a little asymetric. There is a really strong feeder band on the south side.

Wind maps of Yasi
Quoting Grothar:


I hear ya HJ. I'm so old I don't even cast a shadow anymore.


Gro, we have never cast shadows, you and I...part of the Faust deal to get as old as we are...LOL
Where is the daily record highs and lows tally, I wonder. Who usually contributes that?
Quoting Floodman:


Gro, we have never cast shadows, you and I...part of the Faust deal to get as old as we are...LOL


LOL
Quoting RecordSeason:
107:

The south side has always been a little asymetric. There is a really strong feeder band on the south side.

Wind maps of Yasi


Inland cat.4...yuck. You can tell the folks calling into the radio station are getting weary. They just want it to end of course but it's such a huge storm, that won't be happening real soon. Daylight is right around the corner. Early reports from Tully are devastating.
BA BOOM!! getting closer to hurricane season and were going ass backwards

Quoting Floodman:


Gro, we have never cast shadows, you and I...part of the Faust deal to get as old as we are...LOL
Uh, the featured weather blog for humans that pre-date the solar system is at -I witnessed the Big Bang dot Com....Lol..Good afternoon...:)
Quoting hydrus:
Uh, the featured weather blog for humans that pre-date the solar system is at -I witnessed the Big Bang dot Com....Lol..Good afternoon...:)


LOL

how ya doing?
The current temperature in Jefferson City, MO: 0 F
Snow cover: 19.5" (at this location)


Quoting surfsidesindy:


Inland cat.4...yuck. You can tell the folks calling into the radio station are getting weary. They just want it to end of course but it's such a huge storm, that won't be happening real soon. Daylight is right around the corner. Early reports from Tully are devastating.
I hope it doesn't stall on them. I have been through three days of hurricane conditions.
Quoting RitaEvac:
day late dollar short uptxcoast, already know in here


Oh My apologies then. I did not see that watch posted on the forums yet. Thank you for taking the time to point it out. That is very useful.
Yasi down to Cat. 3.
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL

how ya doing?
Busy. bbl..
locations in the greater Chicago area reporting 22+ inches of snow on the ground after this mornings lake effect band moved through
28 degrees at 1PM in Texas City, TX
Quoting pipelines:
locations in the greater Chicago area reporting 22+ inches of snow on the ground after this mornings lake effect band moved through


not my picture

Lake Shore Drive, Chicago, Illinois

Interesting run of the 12z ECMWF for the Deep South:

drak- how about a typewritten commentary on that last post, please...
Quoting Drakoen:
Interesting run of the 12z ECMWF for the Deep South:


Is this what you were trying to post?



*EDIT* Well, now it's deciding to show up...
Quoting atmoaggie:
Where is the daily record highs and lows tally, I wonder. Who usually contributes that?

You mean the tally that shows that, despite Blow Jastardi's breathless predictions that the month would be the coldest out of the last 300, and in spite of a few cold blasts--Jan. 8-14, Jan. 21-25--there were still more record daily highs than record daily lows in January? Yeah, that's me. ;-)

It's true that, yes, record lows outnumbered record highs yesterday--for the first time in a week. (In fact, even factoring in yesterday, over the past seven days, record daily highs and high minimums have outnumbered record daily lows and low minimums 325 to 80.) Of course, there will likely be many more record cold temps today--but that's usually how it is in the dead of winter, no?
Quoting aquak9:
drak- how about a typewritten commentary on that last post, please...


The ECMWF 12z run is showing a low track through the northern Gulf of Mexico with very cold air behind the low supporting back end snow all the way to the Gulf Coast. Here's the precipitation forecast. Notice the comma head back into Louisiana and Mississippi. That's snow.

125:

OMG...

What were these people doing on the road in this storm even after all the buildup?

It's going to take a day just to get that cleared out...
Quoting SQUAWK:


Well, actually, I am. I do care about the people I know and the ones that I can actually help. I am not going to get all teary eyed over something I have no control over and can do nothing about. Using your logic, there were supposedly 27,000 children that died last night from malnutrition and related diseases. TWENTY-SEVEN THOUSAND IN ONE NIGHT. If you need a cause to cry over, try that one. I tend to be a realist. If I can do nothing about it, I am not going to lose sleep over it.


I'm not going to lose sleep over it either, I just thought it might be a more worthwhile use of energy to care so vehemently about people dying than minor changes to a website. Guess I was wrong.

Out of site out of mind. Interesting motto to live by. Ooh and thanks for the heavy touch of condescension. I would expect nothing less from you.

I know it pains you to actually give a hoot about anything you don't have control over but that doesn't stop millions of people each day from doing it. You think anyone had any control over Haiti's Earthquake, Katrina, the Indonesian Tsunami, TC Yasi or any number of other terrible events?

According to YOUR logic, we shouldn't care about any of those events because we "have no control over them". Glad everyone doesn't share your same logic circuit.

I guess you shouldn't care about what the government is doing either since you "have no control" over alot of it. Gimme a break. Save your lectures for someone else.
I'm really digging this banding thing that the ECMWF is putting over my head on Thursday andFriday:

Quoting NRAamy:
junky.... PLEASE...count to 10.... take a deep breath.....

ok?

:)





I'm doing just fine...in fact, I have no stress associated with the new web site so I am doing great!
Thanks for your unwarranted concern though.
Quoting kwgirl:
I believe it is going on to a New Moon. Lunatics, like myself, are sensitive to the pull and it does cause sniping about little things. I have my tin-foil hat on so it doesn't bother me so much:)


LOL! That was funny!
Hey Tdude...how are the conditions there now?
Saw this one and kinda liked it:

"Volcanic lightning or a dirty thunderstorm is seen above Shinmoedake peak as it erupts, between Miyazaki and Kagoshima prefectures, in this photo taken from Kirishima city and released by Minami-Nippon Shimbun January 28, 2011. Ash and rocks fell across a wide swathe of southern Japan straddling the prefectures of Miyazaki and Kagoshima on Thursday, as one of Mount Kirishima's many calderas erupted, prompting authorities to raise alert levels and call on for an evacuation of all residents within a 2 km (1.2 miles) radius of the volcano. Click for more images:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Quoting Neapolitan:

You mean the tally that shows that, despite Blow Jastardi's breathless predictions that the month would be the coldest out of the last 300, and in spite of a few cold blasts--Jan. 8-14, Jan. 21-25--there were still more record daily highs than record daily lows in January? Yeah, that's me. ;-)

It's true that, yes, record lows outnumbered record highs yesterday--for the first time in a week. (In fact, even factoring in yesterday, over the past seven days, record daily highs and high minimums have outnumbered record daily lows and low minimums 325 to 80.) Of course, there will likely be many more record cold temps today--but that's usually how it is in the dead of winter, no?
Umm, no, no that isn't how it usually is.

The record lows move with the seasons, too. So a record low can be bested in any season with only well below average temps. -10 F isn't needed to set a record low in the summer.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Hey Tdude...how are the conditions there now?


19 degrees, snow, and windy!

I would do some more broadcasting, but I have to work in an hour.

The temperature at 9PM last night was 33 degrees. At 10PM, the low from this storm passed directly overhead and the temperature rose to 52 degrees, pressure reached its lowest, and the wind was at it's peak.

at 12:45AM, the temperature was down to 25 degrees

Quoting tornadodude:


19 degrees, snow, and windy!

I would do some more broadcasting, but I have to work in an hour.

The temperature at 9PM last night was 33 degrees. At 10PM, the low from this storm passed directly overhead and the temperature rose to 52 degrees, pressure reached its lowest, and the wind was at it's peak.

at 12:45AM, the temperature was down to 25 degrees



Cool info...work comes first! Keep me posted on conditions...be safe...
Quoting atmoaggie:
Umm, no, no that isn't how it usually is.

The record lows move with the seasons, too. So a record low can be bested in any season with only well below average temps. -10 F isn't needed to set a record low in the summer.


just like how record highs are set in the winter,

you don't need 110 degrees in January to set record highs


good point
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Cool info...work comes first! Keep me posted on conditions...be safe...


will do!

have a good one guys,

Im out!
Quoting atmoaggie:
Umm, no, no that isn't how it usually is.

The record lows move with the seasons, too. So a record low can be bested in any season with only well below average temps. -10 F isn't needed to set a record low in the summer.

It can be spun however anyone likes, I supposed, but the fact of the matter is, record highs have been increasingly outnumbering record lows on a decade-by-decade basis since the 1950s, and cold as January 2011 was supposed to be, it still managed to see more record highs than record lows. That is to say, the nation (along with the globe) is getting warmer. No, month-to-month numbers don't mean a whole lot in the overall scheme of things, especially when those numbers are in just one area--in this case the U.S. But when looked at as a whole, it's actually quite astounding that the warmth keeps on coming despite predictions to the, er, contrary.
drak- I had to enlarge it , but I appreciate the explanation. Pink is still liquid precip, then. No Worries Here.
Hey Nea...how did you like that story?
LOL!
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I'm not going to lose sleep over it either, I just thought it might be a more worthwhile use of energy to care so vehemently about people dying than minor changes to a website. Guess I was wrong.

Out of site out of mind. Interesting motto to live by. Ooh and thanks for the heavy touch of condescension. I would expect nothing less from you.

I know it pains you to actually give a hoot about anything you don't have control over but that doesn't stop millions of people each day from doing it. You think anyone had any control over Haiti's Earthquake, Katrina, the Indonesian Tsunami, TC Yasi or any number of other terrible events?

According to YOUR logic, we shouldn't care about any of those events because we "have no control over them". Glad everyone doesn't share your same logic circuit.

I guess you shouldn't care about what the government is doing either since you "have no control" over alot of it. Gimme a break. Save your lectures for someone else.


If I remember right, it was you that got all uppity about someone being concerned about the new web site and not caring about the poor unfortunate souls in the world. My point is this; if that is the way we should act, then we would never get anything done because horrible stuff is happening all the time. And I know some people that are like that. All they do is worry about our horrid little world and they are paralyzed because of it. Wasted energy, wasted life.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Hey Nea...how did you like that story?
LOL!

Awesomely funny--and amazingly depressing. I'll have a response for you this afternoon. ;-)
150. JRRP
Its getting awful yellow bright in that next plume coming up atmo..

Me tinks its not thunderstorms too.
Quoting Patrap:
Its getting awful yellow bright in that next plume coming up atmo..

Me tinks its not thunderstorms too.
Yep, 30 dBz. Should reach the ground. As what, I cannot say...
tink,,

tink,,

tink,tink,tink
Hey atmo,,call and see who is switching the mode around.

LOL

Uh-oh,itsa brighter now



Quoting Neapolitan:

It can be spun however anyone likes
It seems that only one of us should be dizzy, and it ain't me.

For reference:
Quoting Neapolitan:

It's true that, yes, record lows outnumbered record highs yesterday--for the first time in a week. (In fact, even factoring in yesterday, over the past seven days, record daily highs and high minimums have outnumbered record daily lows and low minimums 325 to 80.) Of course, there will likely be many more record cold temps today--but that's usually how it is in the dead of winter, no?
Quoting atmoaggie:

Umm, no, no that isn't how it usually is.

The record lows move with the seasons, too. So a record low can be bested in any season with only well below average temps. -10 F isn't needed to set a record low in the summer.

Whether record highs or lows are more likely to be bested is entirely independent of the season or month. Statistical and meteorological fact. Not dizzy.
Quoting Patrap:
Hey atmo,,call and see who is switching the mode around.

LOL

Uh-oh,itsa brighter now



Wonder y they did that...
..tink
Quoting SQUAWK:


If I remember right, it was you that got all uppity about someone being concerned about the new web site and not caring about the poor unfortunate souls in the world. My point is this; if that is the way we should act, then we would never get anything done because horrible stuff is happening all the time. And I know some people that are like that. All they do is worry about our horrid little world and they are paralyzed because of it. Wasted energy, wasted life.


Yeah, yeah, blah blah...whatever. I can assure you I'm not paralyzed but I am empathetic to the plight of others. EXCUUUUUUSE ME!!!! Talking to you is like talking to a brick wall so you're right, I am "wasting energy". Why don't you put me on the ignore list then and save us both from further "wasted energy"? Back to weather...
Quoting Patrap:
..tink
Not really, right?
Reports starting to come about damage in the area Yasi hit. One report from Tully, which is not on the coast but a little way inland is a pressure reading of 929mb as the eye passed over.

Reports of forests flattened and major property damage, but nothing on storm surge yet.
They are describing significant tree damage where Yasi came down. Apparently entire forests are cleared.

ABC News

Thats what the Supers do..


Trees by the Millions will be gone.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Not really, right?


Notta yet..

But my shoulder says soon..


Even though the "Groundhog's Day Blizzard" has almost cleared the United States, major problems still exist. Extreme cold from the South, all the way up into the Midwest, is going to occur for several more days.

Here in North Texas, since it is so cold (Only in the low to mid teens right now...climatology is lower-50s) power agencies have had to do intentional blackouts across the whole state. Here in my neighborhood, ice covers the road, and 3-4 inches of snow still lay on the ground. Temperatures aren't expected to get above freezing here until Saturday, and more snow is possible on Friday. Weather should be good here for the Superbowl though :D
Quoting Neapolitan:

Awesomely funny--and amazingly depressing. I'll have a response for you this afternoon. ;-)


Been listening to any of the Yasi news on the ABC 24 live feed? Pretty intense reports...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Even though the "Groundhog's Day Blizzard" has almost cleared the United States, major problems still exist. Extreme cold from the South, all the way up into the Midwest, is going to occur for several more days.

Here in North Texas, since it is so cold (Only in the low to mid teens right now...climatology is lower-50s) power agencies have had to do intentional blackouts across the whole state. Here in my neighborhood, ice covers the road, and 3-4 inches of snow still lay on the ground. Temperatures aren't expected to get above freezing here until Saturday, and more snow is possible on Friday. Weather should be good here for the Superbowl though :D

Feeling a surprise snowstorm in my bones for Thurs night & Friday for the DFW Metroplex :D
Quoting Patrap:


Notta yet..

But my shoulder says soon..



Still pretty dry in New Orleans, per the RUC:



Not to mention warm...
Quoting Bordonaro:

Feeling a surprise snowstorm in my bones for Thurs night & Friday :D

I'm feeling a snowstorm, but no surprise for me!
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #30
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI (14U)
6:00 AM EST February 3 2011
=========================================

At 6:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category Three (969 hPa) located at 18.7S 144.5E or 110 km east southeast of Georgetown and 165 km west southwest of Cardwell has 10 minute sustained of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 17 knots.

YASI WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS WIND GUSTS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL INTERIOR.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi, CATEGORY 3, will weaken as it continues to move in a west-southwesterly direction. Yasi is SE of Georgetown this morning and will be
near Mt Isa tonight as a tropical Low.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core, with gusts up to 180 km/h, is well SE of Georgetown and weakening.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 km/h are occurring between Innisfail and Townsville and extending inland to almost Georgetown.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts above 90 km/hr are occurring in remaining coastal areas between Port Douglas and Bowen, and are forecast to extend through to Mt Isa during the day.

HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES and large waves will continue between Port Douglas and Ayr and sea levels may again exceed the high water mark on the the morning high tide.

FLOODING RAINS south of Cairns will gradually extend inland.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Port Douglas to Bowen , extending west across the tropical interior to the Northern Territory border.

The Cyclone Warning is cancelled between Cape Tribulation and Port Douglas and between Proserpine to Bowen.
Test post from my boysenberry.

Site loaded easier that the old one on this...
Quoting Drakoen:


The ECMWF 12z run is showing a low track through the northern Gulf of Mexico with very cold air behind the low supporting back end snow all the way to the Gulf Coast. Here's the precipitation forecast. Notice the comma head back into Louisiana and Mississippi. That's snow.



Yeah. TWC's forecast for me on that day is Rain/Snow during the day and Snow showers during the night. I'm in Macon, GA by the way. TWC has actually been fairly accurate for the past couple winter storms, but it's still a ways out.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I'm feeling a snowstorm, but no surprise for me!

Is South central Ms included in any wintry precip?
Associated Press | February 02, 2011

A massive cyclone crashed into northeastern Australia, ripping roofs from buildings and cutting power to thousands of homes but leaving the scale of disaster unknown as officials and residents holed up while the tempest raged. (Feb. 2)

Tried to comment...Is South Central Ms included in any wintry precip?
"It is just a scene of mass devastation," he said. "Larry was a boy compared to this."


Cyclone Yasi strikes North Queensland

Category five cyclone tears roofs off pubs and houses, topples trees, and sends power cables crashing on to roads


* Patrick Barkham in Karratha and Adam Gabbatt
* guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 2 February 2011 18.49 GMT


Quoting EYEStoSEA:

Maybe a little from anything that comes out of the Gulf like what Pat is watching over the next day or so. After that, like what Drak is saying, there's a chance that you may get a shot next week.

Quoting 1900hurricane:

Maybe a little from anything that comes out of the Gulf like what Pat is watching over the next day or so. After that, like what Drak is saying, there's a chance that you may get a shot next week.



Hmmm...ok thank you very mcuh
Quoting aquak9:
drak- I had to enlarge it , but I appreciate the explanation. Pink is still liquid precip, then. No Worries Here.


If we extrapolate the track of the low then the comma head would be moving eastward.
thank you drak, again.

If it snows in Jacksonville, and I'm home and awake, I will dance outside in a bathing suit.
Quoting aquak9:
thank you drak, again.

If it snows in Jacksonville, and I'm home and awake, I will dance outside in a bathing suit.


If it snows in Jacksonville I'll be driving north for the kids to see it...Took them last year to Georgia, said I would only go as far North as Jacksonville this year...they may get their wish!
Ice Pellets...not my idea of fun....
Sleet begins to fall Uptown NOLA ,,Ping,tink,tink.

Ice Storm for coastal counties of TX, possible downed power lines and tree limbs, ice could be thick as 1/2" which is plenty to cause damage.
Quoting Patrap:
Sleet begins to fall Uptown NOLA ,,Ping,tink,tink.



Geeez Pat, that just ain't right......sleet in NOLA, the very idea......
Serious situation setting up for coastal TX
NWS Mobile has issued a Winter Weather Advisory
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Geeez Pat, that just ain't right......sleet in NOLA, the very idea......


corpus christi tx got winter storm watch, too

some things just ain't right in quite a few places
Ice storm watches and warning could be going out
surfside- bring your bathing suit and we can dance together
No rain,,no thing but sleet,

Dog is Like,,Yo?

Plus all these Slate Roofs and all make a Wicked noise as well.

Taco bell sprinklers had been on at one time at lunch, there was ice all over the plants and grass, the concrete and metal hand rails
Quoting RitaEvac:
Ice Storm for coastal counties of TX, possible downed power lines and tree limbs, ice could be thick as 1/2" which is plenty to cause damage.


Wanna see what 1.5+" looks like?
Quoting aquak9:
surfside- bring your bathing suit and we can dance together


yippeee!
We just had sleet in Biloxi! Could be interesting come tomorrow.
unfortunately, surfside, I am only three miles from the atlantic....there's not an iceberg's chance in hell of it snowing here
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Wanna see what 1.5+" looks like?



Quoting Patrap:
No rain,,no thing but sleet,

Dog is Like,,Yo?

Plus all these Slate Roofs and all make a Wicked noise as well.

Just got a call from a friend in Metairie. They said its sneauxing...
Quoting aquak9:
unfortunately, surfside, I am only three miles from the atlantic....there's not an iceberg's chance in hell of it snowing here


LOLOL
Hey Pat and Atmo,

Indeed it is... As y'all know, can't let the green colors fool ya, and those yellows are concentrated bursts of sleet, sending your way for your enjoyment!

I can confirm, had light sleet mixed with stray flurry or two drifting slantwise in the dance at 2 PM for about 15 minutes... Wheeee, I like the "tink, tink" on a tin roof, lol...

Rest coming behind this might be da cold rain ugliness... LOL, was fun while lasted... ;)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:





Oh my,my,my.....I'll trade ya some ice pellets for some of that :)
Information from a friend who lives in North Queensland that basically the Banana industry from what she can see is gone. Thats all the information I am getting.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Oh my,my,my.....I'll trade ya some ice pellets for some of that :)


No thanks, you really don't want it anyways...Trust me, you don't ;)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



1.5 feet or 1.5 inches?

~1.5 feet in Tulsa:
They're talking a bout 1/4 to 1/2 inch of ice with heavy rain at times and sleet and snow accumalations of 1-3" what the hell does that look like anybody?
Why is the blog cutting off some of the right side of the post?
Whats the deal with the second blast supposedly coming out of the Canadian region next week, are models still hitting on that forming and if so, will it be as bad or worse than what we are seeing across the Midwest to East coast?
We have sleet here in Saraland,Alabama. I didn't know we where expecting anything like this, it's just here and there. Very surprising.
Quoting atmoaggie:
1.5 feet or 1.5 inches?

~1.5 feet in Tulsa:


1.5+" of Ice is what I was talking about. Only got like 3-4 inches of Snow here.
repost those pics again, they're on last page now tropicalanaylsis
Quoting RitaEvac:
They're talking a bout 1/4 to 1/2 inch of ice with heavy rain at times and sleet and snow accumalations of 1-3" what the hell does that look like anybody?


1/4-1/2" Ice is enough to cover sidewalks and cars, not likely the roads, but its possible...1 inch of snow will cover your grass and car, 3 inches will cover the grass, car, and roads.
aquak9: and I'm not driving to Macon to see rain mixed with snow...yuck! A friend of mine remembers several inches of snow in 1989 west of Jacksonville. Just be glad you don't live in Jacksonville IL!
Quoting RitaEvac:
repost those pics again, they're on last page now tropicalanaylsis




Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Whats the deal with the second blast supposedly coming out of the Canadian region next week, are models still hitting on that forming and if so, will it be as bad or worse than what we are seeing across the Midwest to East coast?


Models still show an arctic blast coming down with Snow, Sleet, and Ice. This time, they should it reaching all the down to the Gulf Coast. The storm wouldn't be as the one we just/are experiencing.
Slain,or Snizzle Now with some small flakes..
See were already freezing during the day so I think were in big trouble down here once the preicip falls, might be a skating rink out here
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


1.5+" of Ice is what I was talking about. Only got like 3-4 inches of Snow here.
I see. Sry, I misunderstood.
my eyes
YAY a new blog look
Quoting Tazmanian:
my eyes


Hi Taz...what's the weather in CA ?
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Hi Taz...what's the weather in CA ?




not march whats up with the new blog look loooks like we got a oh new site
Hmmmm....

Anybody else noticing some of the comments just sliding off the right side of the blog page? A video that is only 3/4 on the page?

Afternoon all, BTW... :o)
Quoting Tazmanian:




not march whats up with the new blog look loooks like we got a oh new site


Well someone young like you will probably not have any trouble navigating, but some of us are sticking to the original ,classic version...for now anyway. It's a touchy subject, if you know what I mean....:)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmmm....

Anybody else noticing some of the comments just sliding off the right side of the blog page? A video that is only 3/4 on the page?

Afternoon all, BTW... :o)


Time to stop sipping on grandpa's cough medicine. ;)

Apparently some browsers are having issues rendering everything 100% correctly.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmmm....

Anybody else noticing some of the comments just sliding off the right side of the blog page? A video that is only 3/4 on the page?

Afternoon all, BTW... :o)


I don't think they are sliding off. I think they are just hidden. LOL Just go to "Tools" and the top of your brower and click on "Compatability View" it should reset itself. Don't like this new revised blog at all.
Apparently there is going to be some sort of news statement made by Premier Bligh in an hour or so depending on what information she is able to obtain from mayors across the continent.
Quoting Neapolitan:

You mean the tally that shows that, despite Blow Jastardi's breathless predictions that the month would be the coldest out of the last 300, and in spite of a few cold blasts--Jan. 8-14, Jan. 21-25--there were still more record daily highs than record daily lows in January? Yeah, that's me. ;-)

It's true that, yes, record lows outnumbered record highs yesterday--for the first time in a week. (In fact, even factoring in yesterday, over the past seven days, record daily highs and high minimums have outnumbered record daily lows and low minimums 325 to 80.) Of course, there will likely be many more record cold temps today--but that's usually how it is in the dead of winter, no?

Bastardi has started to measuring global temperatures in a new way. He now use the GFS model instead of Roy Spencer's site! ;) Link
walked by tv and Sheppard Smith on FOX was talking about total anarchy in Egypt, that the government has been overthrown...
The NOLA Local TWC Radar went PinK in a Big way last few frames.

Mission beach and Tully apparently got the worst of it, there is power out everywhere as can be taken with a storm this size. Most weather stations were wiped out and because of that were sending out false readings, the tv stations that are able to broadcast are doing so via skype. So that gives you an idea of how bad it is, this is all from a friend who lives in Northern Queensland and I am able to talk to using another app.
Damage extensive in Mission Beach

Petrina Berry
February 3, 2011 - 8:29AM


Damage extensive in Mission Beach
Petrina Berry
February 3, 2011 - 8:29AM



AAP

The scene at Cyclone Yasi's ground zero is one of devastation, but even police who bunkered down at Mission Beach don't know just how bad it is.

Police who endured Yasi's fury in the town that took a direct hit say trees had been reduced to sticks, streets were littered with debris, and some buildings had been damaged.

But conditions are still too dangerous in the wake of the category five monster to allow even a cursory assessment of the damage.
Advertisement: Story continues below

"Around 10pm (AEST) there was this massive roar and we could hear vegetation being shredded to pieces," officer in charge Sergeant Dan Gallagher told AAP about 6am (AEST).

But he said the police station had protected all the officers and a handful of locals who also sought refuge there, including a couple and their 18-month-old baby girl.

"We've been in lockdown since 7pm (on Wednesday). It's still roaring out there but nothing what it was like last night," he said.

"The station is pretty solid and its held up really well.

"I have never been through anything as severe as this but we were all positive and supportive and got each other through this.

"We're happy. We all have a smile on our faces and can say 'we got through this'."

When the eye of the cyclone passed over Mission Beach, bringing almost an hour's reprieve from its winds, put at up to 290km/h, the officers did a quick scout of the station grounds.

"Vegetation has been reduced to sticks. A lot of trees are down and one police house was damaged," Sgt Gallagher said.

"But we haven't been able to go further. It's too dangerous.

"Powerlines are down but I'm expecting extensive damage."

In total the station provided a safe haven for the seven officers, a paramedic, seven adults, 10 children, 10 dogs, a bird and two fish.

The children seemed to relish in what they saw as an unusual slumber party, playing games of cricket and eating loads of food.

"It's still very windy out there but as soon as it's safe to do so we will be on the streets assessing the damage," Sgt Gallagher, 39, said.

He said there'd been no reports of local fatalities or injuries.

A further 70 locals spent the night at Elandra Resort which has been built to withstand cyclones.

Resort general manager David Brook said the area now looked like "Vietnam (in the war movie) Apocalypse Now".

Trees are down, cars have been swept away, roofs have been torn away and the sand on the beach has disappeared, Mr Brook said.

"Nothing's been spared," he told ABC Radio/

"The devastation is phenomenal, like nothing I've ever experienced," he said, noting that he's seen at least five cyclones hit the area over the past 20 years.

© 2011 AAP
234. IKE
Statement as of 2:40 PM CST on February 02, 2011


... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to
6 PM CST Thursday...

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for portions of interior southeast
Mississippi and southwestern and south central Alabama and is in
effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday.

Very cold surface based Arctic air and strong wind energy in the jet
stream aloft will work in concert to produce a period of freezing
rain developing later tonight and enduring through late Thursday
afternoon.

Currently this afternoon... there have already been some reports of
sleet around the region. This same area of precipitation will further expand
over our region tonight. The precipitation will likely begin as a
period of sleet late tonight over interior southeastern Mississippi
and interior southwest Alabama and develop northeastward as the
night progresses to be approximately north of a line from Perkinston
Mississippi to Citronelle... Appleton... Andalusia and Brantley
in Alabama.

We must emphasize the NWS expects the wintry precipitation to begin
as sleet and then change over to freezing rain as the night
progresses. The most intense precipitation rates are still expected
around sunrise and will endure through tomorrow afternoon. Up to
roughly fifteen hundredths of an inch of liquid equivalent rainfall
could occur... and this will create a light to moderate glaze accrual
especially on bridges and overpasses. Less than a half inch of sleet
is expected at the onset of the precipitation and before it changes
to freezing rain.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain means that less than a
quarter of an inch of freezing rain will occur in a twelve hour
period and this will act to create a light to moderate frozen glaze
on exposed objects... particularly metal objects... bridges and
overpasses. This may bring down limbs on trees.
It seems that the only places not feeling the weather, Pat, are South Florida and California. Beyond that, everyone is hating this winter.
Getting some HAM reports in E-mail of cell Phone Video.

Bad,Super Impact..
Quoting Grothar:


I don't think they are sliding off. I think they are just hidden. LOL Just go to "Tools" and the top of your brower and click on "Compatability View" it should reset itself. Don't like this new revised blog at all.


I've had a few comments as well that are getting cut off, so I tried your compatibility view suggestion and it didn't change anything for me. Ah well, I am pretty sure I can figure out what it's cutting off. I don't think I'm missing enough to bother changing to the "classic" view. (And before anyone asks, I'm using IE and not gonna change to Chrome or Firefox. Why? Because.)
Quoting Patrap:
The NOLA Local TWC Radar went PinK in a Big way last few frames.

Is any of that actually reaching the ground, there, Pat?
239. IKE
02/02/2011 0310 PM

University of sout, Mobile County.

Sleet u0.00 inch, reported by public.


            Light to moderate sleet reported on the USA Campus




02/02/2011 0230 PM

Mobile Airport, Mobile County.

Sleet u0.00 inch, reported by official NWS obs.


            Light sleet at Mobile regional Airport




02/02/2011 0300 PM

Airport and univerla, Mobile County.

Sleet u0.00 inch, reported by NWS employee.


            Sleet reported in west Mobile on Airport Blvd
Pat, any reports based on Skype or such. Anything you are able to post?
Looking at GOES WV ...a lot of moisture moving up...
So, this would be GoM-effect snow, if it continues...very similar to lake-effect snow up north. (Really, very similar mechanisms at work)
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Looking at GOES WV ...a lot of moisture moving up...


Any of it heading my way, we need rain badly
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
It seems that the only places not feeling the weather, Pat, are South Florida and California. Beyond that, everyone is hating this winter.


Thats true in a sense.

Ive been cold since Xmas easily .

So Shockingly fast to see how a Super Cyclone changes the Landscape soon after Sunrise.

We will see how we can do something.

Im sure they going to need the Relief.

Aussies are tough Great people and our Allies,.but they just took one on the chin and the "early views are devastating".

ReliefWEB words there,..
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Well someone young like you will probably not have any trouble navigating, but some of us are sticking to the original ,classic version...for now anyway. It's a touchy subject, if you know what I mean....:)


ok
Hereby reporting sleet observed in Covington, LA.
Pat, anything that Portlight is talking about doing to help out over there? I know that there will be relief flights requested, anything you can think of that will be done?


Getting interesting with some of the GFS runs..
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hereby reporting sleet observed in Covington, LA.
Though the NWS radar is set on a coverage pattern that misses it entirely (Covington in that completely void of reflectivity area, west of radar site). Interesting.



Lowest radar elevation above the shallow, low-level precip?
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Getting interesting with some of the GFS runs..


That is a run that no one wants to see.... SnowMaggedon round III
Pat...I don't know how to post a link, can u post the WU Classic format link to Taz....
What we are having now is a creeping disaster," the head of the state
weather service, Graciano Yumul, on Wednesday told reporters in Manila.

Yumul said Surigao, a city of 120,000 people, had received 1.8 metres (nearly six feet) of rain in one day.

http://www.google.com/ hostednews/ afp/ article/ ALeqM5hchlhfnIMa0RSWPv5OV3bIr9gX8w?docId=CNG.f974d6c828ca767501df0b8103b261c7.891

Weather bureau officials said in a briefing in Malacañang
that rainfall volume in several areas outside Metro Manila have tripled
last month, indicating impending disaster as the situation is seen
extending in the first half with stronger typhoons expected in the
second half.

http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?title=Weather%20bureau%20warns%20of%20increasing%20calamiti es%20from%20rains&id=25662
lotsa lotsa cloud cover in the Gulf, just wait till that upper low in NM moves east, the whole radar will light up at all sites
Another storm for the South and Northeast. (Anyone think Jim Cantore is getting a little dramatic in this video????)

Link
Quoting plywoodstatenative:


That is a run that no one wants to see.... SnowMaggedon round III


We will c.. still not convince yet.. maybe some folks live a lil north and west from me though..
Looks like Chicago got to 20.2" at O'Hare in the end. Still in 3rd place.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Pat, anything that Portlight is talking about doing to help out over there? I know that there will be relief flights requested, anything you can think of that will be done?


Paul is already making inquiries thru Relief Net and others.

Theres always a need for those in the Impacted Zone for essentials,and we focus on the Disabled and their needs as well, as we communicate.
27hours:


30hours:


Should be interesting for some folks in the south.. I'm actually looking at next week as well.. hmm

THE torrential rain that inundated dozens of towns in the
region last month smashed rainfall records, some more than a century
old.
As the clean-up continues following the floods, the remnants of two
tropical cyclones will dump about 50mm of rain north of the Great
Dividing Range by Saturday.
Maryborough headed a list of towns that saw their highest January
monthly and daily rainfall since weather records began there in 1868.
On January 14, Maryborough had 90.4mm of rain, beating the record of
83.8 set in 1961, while its January rainfall was 240.7mm, smashing the
previous highest of 132.5 set in 1928.

http://www.bendigoadvertiser.com.au/ news/ local/ news/ general/ big-wet-the-biggest-ever/ 2065293.aspx
1030 AM HEAVY SNOW OHARE AIRPORT 41.98N 87.90W
02/02/2011 M20.2 INCH COOK IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Pat...I don't know how to post a link, can u post the WU Classic format link to Taz....


Click the link button above the comment box, paste the URL, click OK.


This is getting crazy.. wow
COLOMBO, Sri Lanka — Officials say two people have died and one is reported missing in new floods and mudslides in northeastern Sri Lanka just weeks after 44 people were killed by heavy rains.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5gJYJA4JHfw_t9BFq3Kdu7vdk8vHA?docId=583 0516
Morning all.
I will post some photo's that are now coming through from Yasi's destruction.
Weather forecasters have warned of winds reaching speeds of up to 90mph over parts of Scotland during Thursday.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/ news/ uk-scotland-highlands-islands-12345623
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Click the link button above the comment box, paste the URL, click OK.


Thank you DAM, I'll do a trial and error when the blog is not so busy....lol...need to learn this for sure.
Yesterday’s Temperature & Rainfall

Minimum: Liawenee, TAS 3.8°C

Maximum: Lucinda Point, QLD 51.6°C (124F)
http://www.abc.net.au/rural/weather/
Tully

There is "virtually nothing standing" in Tully, says Tully Times reporter Linda Timms about the surrounding rainforest





The scene at Cyclone Yasi's ground zero is one of devastation, but even police who bunkered down at Mission Beach don't know just how bad it is.

Police say trees had been reduced to sticks, streets were littered with debris, and some buildings had been damaged, but conditions are still too dangerous to allow even a cursory assessment of the damage.

"Around 10pm (AEST) there was this massive roar and we could hear vegetation being shredded to pieces," said officer in charge Sergeant Dan Gallagher.

90 per cent of the streets of Tully are expected to be extensively damaged.

"We do expect to see Tully experiencing some very very high levels of damage to buildings, to vegetation and potentially to other infrastructure," Anna Bligh

Ms Bligh said six people, aged in their 60s, who were trapped in a unit at Port Hinchinbrook overnight were safe and well on Thursday morning.

"I'm very pleased to advise they're safe," she said.

"I'm sure they had tough night."
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number #3
DEPRESSION BOB01-2011
23:30 PM IST February 2 2011
================================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Depression BOB01-2011 over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lays centered near 6.5N 82.5E, or about 100 km southeast of Pottuvil, 150 km east northeast of Hambantota, 550 km southeast of Kanyakumari.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 30 knots with a central pressure of 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough.

Animation of past 24 hours INSAT imageries indicate that meso-scale convective clusters in association with the system merged gradually along with increasing deep convection. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense convection is seen over southwest Bay of Bengal, south of 10.0N and west of 84.0E, Sri Lanka and adjoining west coast. Lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -65C.

Current meteorological conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system is not likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm. It would move west northwestward and cross Sri Lanka coast between Hambantota and Pottuvil tomorrow morning.

Addition Information
========================

Vorticity at 850 HPA level around the system center has increased during the past 6 hours. The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 12.0N at 200 HPA level. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is moderate (10-20 knots). The Madden Julian Oscilation index lies over the east equatorial Indian Ocean with low amplitude, which is favorable for genesis, but not favorable for further intensification into a cyclonic storm. Sea surface temperature is 26-28C, and the ocean heat content over southwest Bay of Bengal is less than 40 kj/cm2, which is not favorable for intensification.

Considering all the above, this system is not expected to intensify further and will move west northwestward
some images that i got from a site..










Probably get more later..
Houston/Galveston NWS

Amounts: in the snow and sleet area expecting accumulations of 1
to 3 inches with isolated totals around 4 inches. The best chance
of 4 inch accumulations will be across the Piney Woods and lakes
area of East Texas. In the ice area (far se)...ice accumulations
of 1/10 to 1/4 inch are expected.


Impacts: the main difference between this event and the winter
weather events over southeast Texas the last couple of years will be the
colder temperatures. Due to the very low dewpoints and
evaporative cooling...temperatures will run 5 to 7 degrees colder
with this event. These colder temperatures will result in a much
higher likelihood of roads becoming iced over...even with light
precipitation amounts. This will especially be the case with elevated
surfaces like bridges and overpasses. Road conditions are expected
to deteriorate beginning around sunset Thursday. In addition...
power outages will be possible especially in the freezing rain
threat area.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #32
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI (14U)
8:00 AM EST February 3 2011
=========================================

At 8:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category Two (983 hPa) was located at 19.2S 143.9E 110 km south southeast of Georgetown and 245 km west southwest of Cardwell has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots and moving southwest at 19 knots.

YASI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, BUT IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS WIND GUSTS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL INTERIOR.

The DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Yasi, with gusts in excess of 125 km/h, will weaken as it continues to move in a west-southwesterly direction. Yasi is south-east of Georgetown and will be near Mt Isa tonight as a tropical depression.

DAMAGING WINDS, with gusts above 90 km/hr, are occurring along the coast and extend inland to Georgetown and Hughenden. They will extend further west towards Richmond and Julia Creek during the day.

HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES and large waves will continue between Port Douglas and Ayr and sea levels may again exceed the high water mark on the morning high tide.

FLOOD RAINS will continue along the coast and ranges, with heavy rains extending across the adjacent inland.

FLOOD WARNINGS are current for a number of rivers between Cairns and Mackay.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cairns to Ayr, extending west across the tropical interior to Mt. Isa.
Patrap: Mail
Cyclone Yasi's arrival in Queensland propels sugar prices to record high

Analysts say half of state's crop could be destroyed – and weather will also severely disrupt exports of coal, copper and tin


Cyclone Yasi pushed global commodity prices to record highs and will exact a heavy toll on the world economy and the state of Queensland, City analysts warned today.

The price of sugar hit a 30-year high in New York as analysts warned that up to half the state's crop this year could be destroyed by the cyclone. The cyclone also helped push copper and tin prices to a new high.

Xstrata, the London-based mining company, said it was evacuating its copper refining and port operations in Townsville, northern Queensland. Copper, a key material in the construction industry which has risen 60% since last June, touched nearly $10,000 a tonne yesterday. The railways and ports used to export sugar, copper and other valuable commodities such as coal could be put out of action for months.

Queensland is also the world's largest producer of coking coal, used to make steel, earning about A$30bn from annual exports. Anglo-Australian mining company Rio Tinto said it had closed its Hail Creek coalmine. Xstrata has closed Collinsville coalmine and shut down its Bowen Coke operations. It said it was monitoring the situation at other sites in Queensland.
THE north Queensland town of Tully is a scene of mass devastation, with roofs torn from houses and power poles knocked over.

The town, just inland from where Cyclone Yasi made landfall as a monster category five storm, is littered with debris and residents are braced for heartbreaking scenes at first light.

Cassowary Coast councillor Ross Sorbello said the worst of Yasi appeared to be passing away from the town, but he's full of dread about what he'll see when the sun comes up.

He said he'd had many reports of homes without roofs, including his own mother's where he'd been taking shelter, forcing he and his wife and mum to flee.

"We are talking about a pretty strong brick house that was built in the 70s, so god help us in the morning when we look at some of the older places," he said.
Other nearby properties had suffered the same fate.

He said that even in the dark, a very brief look outside as the eye passed over, told him the devastation would be vast.

"It is just a scene of mass devastation," he said. "(Cyclone) Larry was a boy compared to this."

He said people were calling him to recount their losses.

"People are calling up telling me they've got roofs off, one farmer said he had a great big shed blow away," he said.

"All of it confirms that we will be waking up to scenes of destruction in the morning."

He said Yasi's fury, which brought winds of up to 290km/h to the north Queensland coast, was finally starting to move on from Tully.

"The winds are still going but its finally starting to die down a little so it appears the worst is over."

Tully resident Stephanie Grimaz said houses in her street had been ripped apart.

"The flat from across the street is in our front yard and we can see other houses which have just been destroyed," she told AAP.

"There are sheets of iron everywhere, the streets are just full of debris."
Speaking during the eye of the storm, Ms Grimaz said the winds had been terrifying.

"We live in a pretty solid concrete house and even that was trembling," she said.

At Bilyana, south of Tully, several buildings have been damaged, the ABC reported.

"I think all the roof's gone. I could hear it all popping off," one resident, identified only as Rae, told the ABC


THE north Queensland town of Tully is a scene of mass devastation, with roofs torn from houses and power poles knocked over.

The town, just inland from where Cyclone Yasi made landfall as a monster category five storm, is littered with debris and residents are braced for heartbreaking scenes at first light.

Cassowary Coast councillor Ross Sorbello said the worst of Yasi appeared to be passing away from the town, but he's full of dread about what he'll see when the sun comes up.

He said he'd had many reports of homes without roofs, including his own mother's where he'd been taking shelter, forcing he and his wife and mum to flee.

"We are talking about a pretty strong brick house that was built in the 70s, so god help us in the morning when we look at some of the older places," he said.

Other nearby properties had suffered the same fate.

He said that even in the dark, a very brief look outside as the eye passed over, told him the devastation would be vast.

"It is just a scene of mass devastation," he said. "(Cyclone) Larry was a boy compared to this."

He said people were calling him to recount their losses.

"People are calling up telling me they've got roofs off, one farmer said he had a great big shed blow away," he said.

"All of it confirms that we will be waking up to scenes of destruction in the morning."

He said Yasi's fury, which brought winds of up to 290km/h to the north Queensland coast, was finally starting to move on from Tully.

"The winds are still going but its finally starting to die down a little so it appears the worst is over."

Tully resident Stephanie Grimaz said houses in her street had been ripped apart.

"The flat from across the street is in our front yard and we can see other houses which have just been destroyed," she told AAP.

"There are sheets of iron everywhere, the streets are just full of debris."

Deceptive calm

Reporter Greg Stolz tells of an eerie silence in Tully as the eye of Cyclone Yari passes over the town.

Speaking during the eye of the storm, Ms Grimaz said the winds had been terrifying.

"We live in a pretty solid concrete house and even that was trembling," she said.

At Bilyana, south of Tully, several buildings have been damaged, the ABC reported.

"I think all the roof's gone. I could hear it all popping off," one resident, identified only as Rae, told the ABC



Midnight in Innisfail

Sophie Elsworth reports from Innisfail at midnight as Cyclone Yasi crosses the coast in far north Queensland.

In Mission Beach, where the cyclone hit the coast, Sergeant-in-charge Dan Gallagher said they were anticipating significant damage.

It was still too dark to tell this morning but there may have been a small reprieve.

"Given when the cyclone did hit we were lucky it was a very low tide, which could be a saviour for this community," he said.

He said the tourist town usually has between 4000 and 6000 people and was now down to 1000 with many choosing to evacuate.

He said they will get out as soon as possible to start assessing the impact, with the community of Bingil Bay one of the first on their list.

"There are a lot of people in there that we haven't been able to make contact with and we need to get in there and check on them," he said.

"We're going to try to get out as quick as we can to do a scan what's happening in all the communities."

Overnight the station itself was home to 15 adults and 10 children along with pets as they sheltered from the cyclone.

He said they think some of their houses could be seriously damaged.

"We've actually had to evacuate our homes and believe that they've probably been destroyed," he said.

At least one of the neighbouring police residences has a tree through it.

A lot of the rainforest which flanks the town has come down, blocking roads and slowing recovery.

"Given what the vegetation looks like around the police compound, it could take us several hours to get just to the next part of town," he said.
He said the community was amazing and they would rally.

"This will be testing but it won't be difficult, because they just get in and do it."

Further south in Cardwell, residents faced mandatory evacuation.

Maria who lives in the town said she had moved to a house further inland with 11 people from the area.

"This is worse than Larry for us because Larry was over pretty quickly," she said.

"This was a big roar, it just sounded like a big freight train."

She said some of the community had gone to Tully but others had chosen to stay in Cardwell.
Quoting Patrap:
Cyclone Yasi's arrival in Queensland propels sugar prices to record high

Analysts say half of state's crop could be destroyed – and weather will also severely disrupt exports of coal, copper and tin


Cyclone Yasi pushed global commodity prices to record highs and will exact a heavy toll on the world economy and the state of Queensland, City analysts warned today.

The price of sugar hit a 30-year high in New York as analysts warned that up to half the state's crop this year could be destroyed by the cyclone. The cyclone also helped push copper and tin prices to a new high.

Xstrata, the London-based mining company, said it was evacuating its copper refining and port operations in Townsville, northern Queensland. Copper, a key material in the construction industry which has risen 60% since last June, touched nearly $10,000 a tonne yesterday. The railways and ports used to export sugar, copper and other valuable commodities such as coal could be put out of action for months.

Queensland is also the world's largest producer of coking coal, used to make steel, earning about A$30bn from annual exports. Anglo-Australian mining company Rio Tinto said it had closed its Hail Creek coalmine. Xstrata has closed Collinsville coalmine and shut down its Bowen Coke operations. It said it was monitoring the situation at other sites in Queensland.


At the moment you have 177,000 without power that they can report. Airports are closed and the Army has said they will not enter any of the areas until Yasi has completely left the area.
Quoting atmoaggie:
I dunno.

This was the GFS 12 day forecast snowcover from the 12 UTC run on Jan 21. While we aren't likely to see 6 inches on snow over central LA in the next day or so, we are most likely going to see some snow across most of the area GFS call for it 12 days ago. Not a terribly bad miss for 12 days out.



True, but that Florida accumulation is a bunch of crap in that figure lol.

Which probably does prove my point that people freaking out about GFS bringing snow to Florida in the extended period beyond the 7 day is a load of junk. I won't be surprised if it doesn't even get that cold in Florida at all. The arctic oscillation(NAO) has change quite a bit since all those cold blasts we had a while back from December into the first half of January. But now the pattern has changed and it now somewhat opposes big cold blasts in Florida if anything.

When I'm referring to Florida. I mean central and south Florida. The panhandle has a pretty big difference in winter climate.
New format is awesome, It only too a few minutes to figure out where marine forecast, scientific discussion, and astronomy. The hourly breakdown is showing 3 hour lumps. If the W best forecast is from one of the models that does hourly granulation, will it display all the data?
GOM Rainbow Image

284. xcool
http://www.couriermail.com.au/net

More info on yasi
hey guys wow weather underground look different and better
"Funnily enough the US Weather Channel has gone nuts for the storm in the US, but makes no mention of cyclone Yasi. Their outlook for Cairns is for scattered thunderstorms and a 60% chance of rain."

From the couriermail.com.au
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


This is getting crazy.. wow



Is that for the future or the storm about to happen? Also, what do you think about the current NOAA special statement for our area. It hardly ever gets to that point:o
Tink,

pa-tink,,tink

Quoting pcbhere:
"Funnily enough the US Weather Channel has gone nuts for the storm in the US, but makes no mention of cyclone Yasi. Their outlook for Cairns is for scattered thunderstorms and a 60% chance of rain."

From the couriermail.com.au
leave it to twc to fail reporting on the biggest tropical cyclone since Typhoon Tip
Quoting Grothar:
Another storm for the South and Northeast. (Anyone think Jim Cantore is getting a little dramatic in this video????)

Link


Nah, the guy is a weather nut, can't hold that against him! Plus, thunder snow is pretty amazing if you haven't ever experienced it before.
Quoting Grecojdw:



Is that for the future or the storm about to happen? Also, what do you think about the current NOAA special statement for our area. It hardly ever gets to that point:o


Well I think we could see some freezing rain to could change into light sleet later on tonight.. But hopefully we get a surprise.. ;)
"AMID the chaos and devastation of Cyclone Yasi, a baby girl has been born at a Cairns evacuation centre.

A Red Cross official told AAP the baby girl was delivered healthy at 6.09am (AEST) after a three hour labour.

The baby has not been named yet, but she won't be called Yasi."

from couriermail.com.au

I personally think that Yasi would be a great name!
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
Weather forecasters have warned of winds reaching speeds of up to 90mph over parts of Scotland during Thursday.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/ news/ uk-scotland-highlands-islands-12345623
You take the high road and I'll take the low road.
1. Yasi
From the Urban Dictionary

A very sexy young girl that causes many men to get very horn_ _
Damn that yasi is fine.
Everytime i look at yasi i get horn_ _!

I just looked up what Yasi means, so I would not suggest naming the baby this!
Quoting lhwhelk:
You take the high road and I'll take the low road.


LOL! A witty ditty!
Quoting pipelines:


Nah, the guy is a weather nut, can't hold that against him! Plus, thunder snow is pretty amazing if you haven't ever experienced it before.



He's seen it before. Look at the date at the bottom at the very beginning. 1996! I guess he just gets excited easily. LOL

Link
OK, I must be bored, but it is too cold out to do anything else, so I am obsessing about the meaning of the word Yasi.....it is really a Fijian word and it is a type of local sandlewood....there! fini!
This years hurricane season will be a bad one for the U.S,and surrounding areas.Something should've came out of now where,and destroyed Yasi.
Quoting GetReal:
I can tell you that it was all light sleet in Covington with that last bit of precip about 15 minutes ago.
Anyone notice the tongue of warm water into the loop current in the Gulf. Anyone have a comparison to last year's SST in the Gulf? Come on, there is nothing on TV but NCIS reruns.

Al la Ka Zammmmmmmmmm...






This one is like 7days out and the Euro is almost similar to it as well.. Both models are leaning toward to be quite cold next week for the southeast and probably most of FL as well.. I think we need to watch this if the models do come out to be true.. Right now the last few days it has been consistent with the GFS and Euro..

But right now, We won't get a good idea what this storm will do until the feb 4th-6th system is out of here, and then we watch another system ride down the trough early next week. Models have it cutting up to the GL then bombing out in the NE dropping another Arctic airmass of 1040 MB high into the Central Plains. That brings another shot of cold air with -10C approaching N GA/AL. Then the low in the NE continues to deepen and the next short wave digs into the Texas and a SLP develops tracking along the Gulf coast, then up the Atlantic coast.

So we have two systems being shown before the late next week system that will play an important rule in where the possible storm will track, and how cold it is. Until we get the early next week storm to supply an extra cold shot, then bomb in the NE keeping our system suppressed, if it does, we won't get a good idea of what to expect with late week possible storm. As for now, we just have to wait and c if it pans out or not..

Here is some images.. that are interesting leading up to next week.. Remember just a maps/models..







Wonder what anyone thinks about this potential for next week?
FROM THE WEATHER CHANNEL HOME PAGE:


More southern snow possible

A new winter storm takes aim at Houston, Jackson, and Birmingham.
Thanks Pat.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #33
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI (14U)
11:00 AM EST February 3 2011
=========================================

At 10:00 AM EST Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category Two (980 hPa) located at 19.5S 142.9E 150 km south southwest of Georgetown and 385 km east northeast of Mt Isa has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 20 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=====================
45 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
45 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
30 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==================
240 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
170 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
140 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
65 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

YASI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, BUT IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS WIND GUSTS ABOUT THE TROPICAL COAST AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL INTERIOR.

The DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Yasi, with gusts in excess of 125 km/h, will weaken as it continues to move in a west-southwesterly direction. By tonight TC Yasi will be near Mt Isa as a tropical depression.

DAMAGING WINDS, with gusts above 90 km/hr, are occurring along the coast and much of the tropical interior. These winds are forecast to extend to the Northern Territory border including Longreach and Mount Isa.

HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES and LARGE WAVES will continue for the next few hours between Port Douglas and Ayr. These conditions are not expected to be repeated again tonight.

HEAVY RAINS will continue about the coast and will result in a continuation of localised and river flooding. HEAVY RAINS are also forecast to move with the cyclone and these rains will cause localised flooding and possible river flooding across the interior.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Port Douglas to Ayr, extending west across the interior to the Northern Territory border, including Mt Isa and Longreach.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 20.7S 139.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.8S 137.4E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 23.6S 134.3E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
========================
Tropical Cyclone Yasi remains a symmetric system as it moves across the north Queensland interior. Convection has weakend around the sytem and cloud top temperatures have warmed since Yasi crossed the coast earlier this morning.

Yasi is expected to maintain a west southwesterly track as it moves towards central Australia over the next couple of days. Although the cyclone is rapidly weakening over land strong and gusty condtions are expected to develop to the south of the system with mixing of low level winds to the surface during the day.

Despite the cyclone being situated well inland gale force winds are continuing in coastal locations between Cardwell and Ayr. Enhanced convergence in this area is producing heavy rain.

The next Tropical Cyclone Advice for Tropical Cyclone Yasi will be issued at 4:00 AM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential

Seven Basins

There are seven tropical cyclone "basins" where storms occur on a regular basis:
1. Atlantic basin, including the North Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea
2. Northeast Pacific basin.from Mexico to about the dateline
3. Northwest Pacific basin.from the dateline to Asia including the South China Sea
4. North Indian basin, including the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea
5. Southwest Indian basin.from Africa to about 100E
6. Southeast Indian/Australian basin (100E to 142E)
7. Australian/Southwest Pacific basin (142E to about 120W)

Tropical Cyclone Basins

According to NOAA's National Hurricane Center, approximately 69 percent of the tropical cyclones occur in the Northern Hemisphere, while only 31 percent can be found in the Southern Hemisphere. Approximately 12 percent occur in the Atlantic Ocean, 57 percent occur in the Pacific and the remaining 31 percent occur in the Indian Ocean.
In June 2003 we started providing global near-real time estimates of tropical cyclone heat potential in the seven basins during all year.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/02/uah-update-for-january-2011-global-temperatures-in-freefall/

Looks like global temps aren't changing much over the long term
..Somewhere a PC is too warm..
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone notice the tongue of warm water into the loop current in the Gulf. Anyone have a comparison to last year's SST in the Gulf? Come on, there is nothing on TV but NCIS reruns.


Loop Eddy Current by the Doc

Gro:

The Doc had a post on this earlier while the Macando well was flowing.
Never thought I'd fill up some of the gas cans for the standby genny with the possibility of power loss due to an ice storm/snow here in Houston, but there so it has been done. Just fired the genny too, to check the start, and she does. Stabil is such a nice thing to have. Well, if the power doesn't go out, I suppose I can use the gas in the truck.
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Loop Eddy Current by the Doc

Gro:

The Doc had a post on this earlier while the Macando well was flowing.


Thanks for the link, EM.

Doe je denkt dat ik dat kan me herinneren. Ik herinner me niet wat ik voor lunch had. LOL

I saw in the public information that the 20.2" of snow at O'Hare was recorded at 10:30 am CST. But precipitation continued after that, looks like a good inch more of snow from the liquid equivalent.

The banana Crop and Stock trees are decimated.
whoops wrong one.. lol
SUGAR futures have soared to a 30-year high in the US as fears grow that Cyclone Yasi could decimate Australia's sugar crops.
Forecasts estimate the tropical cyclone could cause as much as $505 million in losses to Queensland’s sugar cane fields.
It is the first category 5 cyclone to hit Queensland in almost 100 years.
Sugar prices were already rising on the back of damage from Queensland’s floods of early January, but the threat of Cyclone Yasi has pushed prices even higher.
March delivery sugar reached 36.08 cents in early trade - the highest for a most-active contract since November 1980. In London, prices reached $857 per metric ton, the highest since January 1989.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/business/sugar-price-soars-on-us-markets-as-cyclone-yasi-hits-queensland/stor y-e6frfm1i-1225999207987#ixzz1CrDAjdko
Quoting AussieStorm:
















Wow, that looks unbelievable. We'll be seeing more pictures like this during this season.
Hey Folks stopping by to say hi. Havent been on in quite a while hope you are all doing well just letting you all know i am still on the Blog lol
EnergyDude -- any news about the whyfors of the rolling blackouts today?
Quoting HouGalv08:
Never thought I'd fill up some of the gas cans for the standby genny with the possibility of power loss due to an ice storm/snow here in Houston, but there so it has been done. Just fired the genny too, to check the start, and she does. Stabil is such a nice thing to have. Well, if the power doesn't go out, I suppose I can use the gas in the truck.


The insanity of having power outages even without snow. We are expected to reach a winter record of 56,800 MW generation tomorrow... it is a slam dunk that even the homes alone in Texas are wasting 9,000 MW tomorrow (maybe not electricity, but doesn't really matter).



I've been tracking my usage since I went tankless (after installing a solar water heater). The solar water heater did nothing; energy improvements to my house halved my gas bill, and going tankless has rocked.

Okay, the difference in the last two curves is simply energy radiated into space. I have a lot bigger tank than most with the solar (still use it as a pre-heat, and pretty much as is during the summer) but it is the winter where all the loses occur. You can see that I was losing about 1 kWH/DD/day.

So, here in Texas we have outdoor water heaters for the most part (and a few tankless, but not intensive)

9 million households.

35 degree days below normal.

That is 13,500 MW of loses into outer space outside of the conditioned area for our state assuming everybody has a traditional water heater.

Our about 25% of our record energy use!

The tankless company I chose (a hybrid with a small tank... I heat the house also with water) had on their ad somewhere a calculation of how many coal plants they could put of out business with this technology.

Oh, gas bill for December? Less than 30 dollars.

Texans are heating outer space right now!


Quoting bappit:
EnergyDude -- any news about the whyfors of the rolling blackouts today?


Two coal fired plants in the north part of the state had leaks owing to burst water pipes.

The gas fired ones couldn't start up owing to low gas pressure.

My neighbor blogged about this today in the Chronicle

Tom Fowler's Chronicle blog
Anyone know how to stop the cutting off of right side of posts?


Still getting on and off sleet here tonight.

Quoting caneswatch:


Wow, that looks unbelievable. We'll be seeing more pictures like this during this season.


What do you think of look of the new blog?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anyone know how to stop the cutting off of right side of posts?


Tools/Compatibilty view. Or FireFox. Or wait for IE9.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Tools/Compatibilty view. Or FireFox. Or wait for IE9.


You hit the nail on the head....the new format and IE8 just dont jive too well...
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Tools/Compatibilty view. Or FireFox. Or wait for IE9.


I have Firefox...It's still doing it.
Schools in the Austin and Cedar Park area experienced rolling blackouts today. Can you imagine a school full of middle school students with all the lights out? Now that should be enough for hazard pay!
Quoting Grothar:


What do you think of look of the new blog?


Not bad, as long as it wasn't too complicated for us.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I have Firefox...It's still doing it.


Try a reboot, if you have not done so, it might clear some buffers for ya. Can't hurt. I have no issues with IE8 (xp-pro) and or FF with regular XP home, or the windows 7 platform. It works fine now on all 5 of my PC's. I did have an issue with IE8/xp a few days ago with the link/image boxes in the post box. They did not appear then. There are lots of scripts here in play. Good luck.

In the mean time, some Weather Report? Sound familiar? :)

classic.wunderground.com.

TropA13....here is link to old format....see if it's the same there
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Tools/Compatibilty view. Or FireFox. Or wait for IE9.


Do you think the person who redesigned this new format will get promoted. It si so slow, I can make 3 pots of coffee waiting for it to refresh.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
classic.wunderground.com.

TropA13....here is link to old format....see if it's the same there


Still afraid to try that link button, Eyes? ;-)
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Still afraid to try that link button, Eyes? ;-)


LOL..that WAS my try......what did I do wrong? First time I've ever cut and pasted.....
Quoting Grothar:


Do you think the person who redesigned this new format will get promoted. It si so slow, I can make 3 pots of coffee waiting for it to refresh.


Hey Gro!

IMO, the refresh slowness is due to all the maps and pics being posted. That problem isn't happening on other blogs. I view 50 comments to cut down on that; it really helps.

Re the promotion: hehe.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


LOL..that WAS my try......what did I do wrong? First time I've ever cut and pasted.....


Did you click Link and paste the URL in the box which opens? You should overwrite the http:// that's already there.
Quoting Grothar:


Do you think the person who redesigned this new format will get promoted. It si so slow, I can make 3 pots of coffee waiting for it to refresh.


Ya gotta get off that dialup :)

To speed up loading, you can also press ESC or the stop button a few seconds after refreshing. But you might cut a recently posted pic or map off if you do that. In which case, you can just r. click and choose View image.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Did you click Link and paste the URL in the box which opens? You should overwrite the http:// that's already there.


a box opens? I'm lost
Quoting muddertracker:
Schools in the Austin and Cedar Park area experienced rolling blackouts today. Can you imagine a school full of middle school students with all the lights out? Now that should be enough for hazard pay!


ERCOT is still saying they are possible tonight and tomorrow and is urging conservation:

Link

Now only if they could urge conservation the other 363 days of the year when we are not setting summer and winter records.
Quoting EnergyMoron:


ERCOT is still saying they are possible tonight and tomorrow and is urging conservation:

Link

Now only if they could urge conservation the other 363 days of the year when we are not setting summer and winter records.

At least I wasn't in an elevator when a blackout rolled through.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


a box opens? I'm lost


OK. When you are entering a comment, just above is a line of buttons (aka boxes). Bold, Italic, Link, and Image. See them?
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


OK. When you are entering a comment, just above is a line of buttons (aka boxes). Bold, Italic, Link, and Image. See them?


NO box opens when I click on link
Quoting Ossqss:


Ya gotta get off that dialup :)



Hey, my little 386 works just fine. Maybe if I upgrade to Windows 95, it might help.

Quoting EYEStoSEA:


NO box opens when I click on link


What happens when you click on the others?

What browser?
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, my little 386 works just fine. Maybe if I upgrade to Windows 95, it might help.



I see,,,,,, the problem is with the mouse :)

I know I'm annoying dont annoy me
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


NO box opens when I click on link



Do you get a little message that reads "The website is using a scripted window.........It should appear in yellow. If you get that, just right click and click on "Temporarily allow scripted" Windows" then the box will appear after you click "Link" again.

Quoting EYEStoSEA:


NO box opens when I click on link
The box only appears when you click "Link" or "Image" in the comments box.
Quoting Ossqss:


I see the problem is with the mouse :)



You just made me choke, you Twit!! LOL Sorry, I can't top that one.
If the sentence is too long I can't read it.
The words are there I just can't see them.
Quoting Grothar:



Do you get a little message that reads "The website is using a scripted window.........It should appear in yellow. If you get that, just right click and click on "Temporarily allow scripted" Windows" then the box will appear.


I do get the message, I click on here to allow, and no box appears..Now tell ya what....I'll get my grandson to show me how tomorrow...I feel like a complete a@@@ right now...TY so much for trying to help :)
Quoting Chicklit:
If the sentence is too long I can't read it.


Just take your time and read every word slowly. LOL
Quoting Grothar:


You just made me choke, you Twit!! LOL Sorry, I can't top that one.


Hey, I got a trophy, once! :P

Quoting Chicklit:
If the sentence is too long I can't read it.
The words are there I just can't see them.

There are adult literacy classes....
Quoting Chicklit:
If the sentence is too long I can't read it.
The words are there I just can't see them.


Go to "Tools" and click on Compatability settings. Make sure wunderground is added. Then close that and click "Compatability view" it should reset it. You may have to do it twice.
Quoting Chicklit:
If the sentence is too long I can't read it.
The words are there I just can't see them.


See post 334. No joke! lol
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


I do get the message, I click on here to allow, and no box appears..Now tell ya what....I'll get my grandson to show me how tomorrow...I feel like a complete a@@@ right now...TY so much for trying to help :)


lol, it's not you, it's the browser settings. Hope your gs can get it right for you!
Quoting Ossqss:


Hey, I got a trophy, once! :P



I see we have the same sick sense of humor.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


I do get the message, I click on here to allow, and no box appears..Now tell ya what....I'll get my grandson to show me how tomorrow...I feel like a complete a@@@ right now...TY so much for trying to help :)


I forgot to tell you. You then have to click "LINK" again, then the box will appear. Go ahead, give it the "Old College Try" Give one for the Gipper. LOL
Grothar...HELP..I'm feeling like the Aflack duck again........say something humorous..
Quoting EnergyMoron:


The insanity of having power outages even without snow. We are expected to reach a winter record of 56,800 MW generation tomorrow... it is a slam dunk that even the homes alone in Texas are wasting 9,000 MW tomorrow (maybe not electricity, but doesn't really matter).



I've been tracking my usage since I went tankless (after installing a solar water heater). The solar water heater did nothing; energy improvements to my house halved my gas bill, and going tankless has rocked.

Okay, the difference in the last two curves is simply energy radiated into space. I have a lot bigger tank than most with the solar (still use it as a pre-heat, and pretty much as is during the summer) but it is the winter where all the loses occur. You can see that I was losing about 1 kWH/DD/day.

So, here in Texas we have outdoor water heaters for the most part (and a few tankless, but not intensive)

9 million households.

35 degree days below normal.

That is 13,500 MW of loses into outer space outside of the conditioned area for our state assuming everybody has a traditional water heater.

Our about 25% of our record energy use!

The tankless company I chose (a hybrid with a small tank... I heat the house also with water) had on their ad somewhere a calculation of how many coal plants they could put of out business with this technology.

Oh, gas bill for December? Less than 30 dollars.

Texans are heating outer space right now!




Your post prompted me to do some research as I started to salivate on the money I could save to take fly down to Australia and help those poor folks down there. Here's a great page that lays out the energy savings: http://water-heater-tankless.com/2011/02/energy-savings-comparison-of-tank-vs-tankless-hot-water-he ater/
Quoting Grothar:


I see we have the same sick sense of humor.

But, you cant spell...

it's not 'sick sense' . it's 'sixth sense'. (dont bite your tongue...)
Get with it, Gro!
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Grothar...HELP..I'm feeling like the Aflack duck again........say something humorous..



My wife and I fell in love at first sight... maybe I should have taken a second look.

I'll never get married again. I'll just find a woman I don't like and buy her a house.
Quoting Grothar:



My wife and I fell in love at first sight... maybe I should have taken a second look.

I'll never get married again. I'll just find a woman I don't like and buy her a house.


Well that might be funny.....if I were a MAN...Gotcha? LOLOLOL
Complete Update






Quoting pottery:

But, you cant spell...

it's not 'sick sense' . it's 'sixth sense'. (dont bite your tongue...)
Get with it, Gro!



I believe there is an apostrophe between the n and the t in can't and in don't. :P How is Pot, tonight?
Quoting pottery:

But, you cant spell...

it's not 'sick sense' . it's 'sixth sense'. (dont bite your tongue...)
Get with it, Gro!


Oh boy, not TED ? Yikes!!!!!

Quoting Grothar:


I see we have the same sick sense of humor.


Did you notice the coal fired plant in the background?

That is why they really died.

Maar je bent te oude te herrinert alles. :)

Houston is niet zo koud vanavond... zoals gisteren als ik herrinert.

Wel te rustig.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Well that might be funny.....if I were a MAN...Gotcha? LOLOLOL


LOL

nicee
Quoting Patrap:
..and you Know that cant be bad


I don't want to hold your hand, Pat.
382. flsky
Is there any weather to talk about tonight???
Quoting flsky:
Is there any weather to talk about tonight???


right here!


Tonight's forecast:

"Rainy with a 100% Chance of pity, fool."
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Did you notice the coal fired plant in the background?

That is why they really died.

Maar je bent te oude te herrinert alles. :)

Houston is niet zo koud vanavond... zoals gisteren als ik herrinert.

Wel te rustig.



I didn't notice that.

Ik heb zo veel gelegen, ik weet niet hoe oud ik echt ben. Maar ik herinner me veel. LOL
Quoting Leafgreen:


Your post prompted me to do some research as I started to salivate on the money I could save to take fly down to Australia and help those poor folks down there. Here's a great page that lays out the energy savings. Hope it helps: http://water-heater-tankless.com/2011/02/energy-savings-comparison-of-tank-vs-tankless-hot-water-hea ter/


Your Link

Didn't show up the link owing to the rollover problem noted by others.

Anyway, you have to pay the plumber also to do it so you will have to wait until your old unit gets old, like Gro.

If you have electric rather than natural gas the payout is going to be quicker than I will give; for me the assumption is gas.

For natural gas 150 a year is about right.

The payout can only be achieved if you exchange the old one (since you have to pay the plumber also).

For electric, about an 8 year payout (and if you have extremely high use with electric hot water solar hot water MIGHT pay out but be very careful).

I have gas but I am an energy moron and am driven to show what is possible with efficiency... a heck of a lot it turns out.
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL

nicee


Some friend you are. You don't even know enough to come out of the snow and ice. LOL How you doing TD??
Quoting Grothar:


I don't want to hold your hand, Pat.




Dat wuz "She Loves You",,


Lost in translation maybe ?
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number #4
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE, FORMER BOB01-2011
5:30 AM IST February 3 2011
================================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Depression BOB01-2011 over southwest Bay of Bengal weakened into a well marked low pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka.


Animation of past 12 hours INSAT imagery indicates that the convective clusters in association with the system has disorganized. Lowest cloud top temperature due to convection has increased and is around -55C.

Current meteorological conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system is likely to weaken further.


Additional Information
=======================

The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 12.0N at 200 HPA level. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is moderate (10-20 knots). The Madden Julian Oscilation index lies over the east equatorial Indian Ocean with low amplitude, which is favorable for genesis, but not favorable for further intensification. Sea surface temperature (26-28C) and the ocean heat content over southwest Bay of Bengal is less than 40 kj/cm2, which are also not favorable for intensification. System is also interacting with land surface.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to weaken further.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the India Meteorological Department
Quoting Grothar:


Some friend you are. You don't even know enough to come out of the snow and ice. LOL How you doing TD??


hey!

Lol

Im doing great, working about 45 hours a week, keeps me busy haha

how you doing?
Quoting Patrap:




Dat wuz "She Loves You",,


Lost in translation maybe ?


Hey, I can't remember everything. First time I heard them I was in Germany. LOL They use different words. At least I got the right decade.
these are probably the best links to use

links
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Well that might be funny.....if I were a MAN...Gotcha? LOLOLOL


I guess I got got. Well, since Pot brought up the subject of sixth sense. Here is one for you, before we go back to the weather.

Two psychics meet on the street, the first one says, "Your fine, how am I"
Ahhh yes..the Cavern Days were heady times in Deutschland fer the Boyz.
Quoting Leafgreen:


Your post prompted me to do some research as I started to salivate on the money I could save to take fly down to Australia and help those poor folks down there. Here's a great page that lays out the energy savings. Hope it helps: http://water-heater-tankless.com/2011/02/energy-savings-comparison-of-tank-vs-tankless-hot-water-hea ter/


Actually, CFL's are the quickest payout, on the order of 1 year.

I replaced some 13 and 26 watt CFLs with 7 watt CFLs and 8 watt LEDs (latter is expensive and ugly but outdoors) and proven from energy bill payout is less than 3 years.

CFLs... do that first. Then if you have ductwork outside of the conditioned space seal leaks (that is a belly job but is DYI with 'good stuff'). Then insulation in the attic. Then windows.

Not to mention energystar appliances (my frig is 7 year payout).

Efficiency first.
Quoting Grothar:


I guess I got got. Well, since Pot brought up the subject of sixth sense. Here is one for you, before we go back to the weather.

Two psychics meet on the street, the first one says, "Your fine, how am I"


LOL....you are a real sport, Grothar:)
Quoting Grothar:


Go to "Tools" and click on Compatability settings. Make sure wunderground is added. Then close that and click "Compatability view" it should reset it. You may have to do it twice.


Thank you for the adult answer.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #35
TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI (14U)
1:00 PM EST February 3 2011
=========================================

At 12:00 PM EST Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category Two (980 hPa) located at 19.5S 142.9E, or 150 km south southwest of Georgetown and 385 km east northeast of Mt Isa has 10 minutes sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 20 knots.

YASI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, BUT IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS WIND GUSTS ABOUT THE TROPICAL COAST AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL INTERIOR.

The DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Yasi, with gusts in excess of 125 km/h, will weaken as it continues to move in a west-southwesterly direction. Overnight TC Yasi will be near the Northern Territory border west of Mt Isa as a tropical depression.

DAMAGING WINDS, with gusts above 90 km/h, are occurring along the coast between Cardwell and Ayr and also through much of the tropical interior. These winds are forecast to extend to the Northern Territory border including Longreach and Mount Isa, while easing about coastal parts during the afternoon.

TIDE levels are now falling and are not expected to pose any further threat to coastal areas between Port Douglas and Ayr. However, large waves will continue for the next few hours.

HEAVY RAINS will continue about the coast and will result in a continuation of localised and river flooding.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS are also forecast to move with the cyclone and cause localised flooding and possible river flooding across the interior

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cardwell to Ayr, extending west across the tropical interior to the Northern Territory border, including Mt Isa and Longreach.

The Cyclone WARNING from Cairns to Cardwell has been cancelled.
For the NE and the South:





Once you start using it the new format is absolutely brilliant. Good job.
Quoting Neapolitan:

... Blow Jastardi's...


Stop the name calling.

I read the article in question and am aware of the logical flaws.

What does a pure ad hominer attack have to do with science?

This is meant as a purely rhetorical question, but are you a troll for the Koch's?
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Stop the name calling.

I read the article in question and am aware of the logical flaws.

What does a pure ad hominer attack have to do with science?

This is meant as a purely rhetorical question, but are you a troll for the Koch's?


(insert plus sign here)1

"are you a troll for the Koch's?"

are you not doing something similar right here?
Quoting Chicklit:


Thank you for the adult answer.


Hey, sometimes I can't help myself and the adult in me comes out. You're very welcome Chicklit.
Statement as of 11:19 PM EST on February 02, 2011
... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until midnight EST for southeastern Gilchrist and northwestern Alachua counties...

At 1119 PM EST... National Weather Service meteorologists continued to track a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near Newberry... or 9 miles east of Trenton... moving northeast at 40 mph.

Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Alachua and La Crosse.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Report severe weather or damage to the nearest law enforcement agency or your County emergency management.

nite all. got this from the gainesville, florida link.
This place needs a little livin' up:

Quoting EnergyMoron:


Actually, CFL's are the quickest payout, on the order of 1 year.

I replaced some 13 and 26 watt CFLs with 7 watt CFLs and 8 watt LEDs (latter is expensive and ugly but outdoors) and proven from energy bill payout is less than 3 years.

CFLs... do that first. Then if you have ductwork outside of the conditioned space seal leaks (that is a belly job but is DYI with 'good stuff'). Then insulation in the attic. Then windows.

Not to mention energystar appliances (my frig is 7 year payout).

Efficiency first.


fixed the link. Thanks. Anyway, according to the blog post, the annual cost savings is ~ $260. After paying for installation, depending on the tankless hot water heater you buy, it's looking like a TWO year payout to switch from tank to on-demand hot water heater. cool. I mean hot. whatever ;)
This is the very good news of the day:

Tropical Cyclone Yasi slammed into Australia’s northeast coast early today with winds stronger than Hurricane Katrina, ripping apart houses and cutting a swath through sugarcane crops, though no deaths have been reported.

Yasi hit shore as a Category 5 cyclone at Mission Beach, a resort town of about 3,000 people 1,500 kilometers (932 miles) north of Brisbane, the Bureau of Meteorology said. The death and destruction authorities had feared was minimized as the larger cities of Cairns and Townsville escaped the brunt of the storm.

BloombergNews
Quoting Leafgreen:


fixed the link. Thanks. Anyway, according to the blog post, the annual cost savings is ~ $260. After paying for installation, depending on the tankless hot water heater you buy, it's looking like a TWO year payout. cool. I mean hot. whatever ;)


Let's see... my job was $7,000 (I had to fix an unsafe solar hot water system so don't let that scare you)....

The unit will cost you minimum 1,500 (since I heat my house with water 2,500), less 500 cost for a tank unit. Thus at least 1,000

1,000 installation.

So that is at least 2,000 dollars.

And is your house up to electric code? You will need to plug the tankless in somewhere (your old tank unit probably works with a pilot light).

I just want to be as honest as possible (for a new build putting in a tank is silly).

CFLs quickest payout.
Still impressive looking:


It's about time for Keeper and Xcool to post us some visuals.....
Quoting tornadodude:


(insert plus sign here)1

"are you a troll for the Koch's?"

are you not doing something similar right here?


I specifically say the open question is meant rhetorically and I strongly suspect the null hypothesis is correct.
No slam intended Potts. just kidding around.
really, nite all.
tomorrow i guess they'll be doing a lot of snow shoveling in illinois. it was quite warm here today in ecfl and still is.
my job has me daffy.
looking forward to the slow down in May/June just about the time hurricane season begins!
Quoting Grothar:


I'd prefer not to be in this mix....unless it's snow ,always take snow
Its a bad one coming into Alachua county flashing constantly here.

I haven't seen lightening this intense here in a year.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


I'd prefer not to be in this mix....unless it's snow ,always take snow


They all need a break. What state are you in?
Quoting Chicklit:
it was quite warm here today in ecfl and still is.

Yes and the thunder is ratcheting up as that monster gets nearer. Nice big red blob headed my way. Puppies hiding under the blanket. Keeping our heads down.
Quoting Grothar:


They all need a break. What state are you in?


SCentral Ms....the tornado alley part
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Its a bad one coming into Alachua county flashing constantly here.

I haven't seen lightening this intense here in a year.



you must be to my northwest fatlady
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


SCentral Ms....the tornado alley part




OOOOOH!
Quoting tornadodude:


(insert plus sign here)1

"are you a troll for the Koch's?"

are you not doing something similar right here?


Koch funding of denial


Facts are facts. The Kochs are spending a million (really, and can document but it is late, 50 million, against scientists)...

Oh, and (besides a deceased politician... RIP amen) funding opposition to Cape Cod wind (the best place to stick the stuff on the East Coast but how much good will it do?)


Cape Cod wind opposition

No problem with facts...

If anybody has any info that the Koch brothers regret the ways documented above I will relent.
Quoting Chicklit:
you must be to my northwest fatlady

In lovely Melrose. Last one shook the house. Puppies noses now sticking out from under blanket...
WAS going to a Farmer's Market tomorrow on your doorstep. Maybe will be very wet. Have a good nite and stay dry...
Quoting flsky:
Is there any weather to talk about tonight???


Some raw measurements, unfiltered.

A few hours ago -0.2 C at my house in SW Houston inside the loop.

Right now -0.1 C.

Given the forecast what does that say about precip tomorrow?

It ain't anywhere near 23 F.... yesterday 21 is not 19 (19 is a TEEN)... close but no cigar (should have stuck with 22)
And, the NWS made a big boo boo today when they issued the Advisory for Calcasieu and surrounding parishes and counties, now rescended by the Watch...

Statement as of 10:21 PM CST on February 02, 2011

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through
Friday morning...
... Winter Weather Advisory is cancelled...

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from Thursday afternoon through
Friday morning. The Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled.

A mixture of rain... sleet... and freezing rain is possible on
Thursday. Little ice accumulation is expected. The mixture will
evolve to moderate freezing rain and ice pellets by Thursday
evening... ending by mid morning Friday. Ice accumulation around
around one quarter of an inch is possible.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
401
Agree with the name calling; that wasn't called for.
405
Love that music, playing it now!
Quoting fatlady99:

Yes and the thunder is ratcheting up as that monster gets nearer. Nice big red blob headed my way. Puppies hiding under the blanket. Keeping our heads down.
looks like a band of mix precip coming into the Fl Panhandle:)
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Some raw measurements, unfiltered.

A few hours ago -0.2 C at my house in SW Houston inside the loop.

Right now -0.1 C.

Given the forecast what does that say about precip tomorrow?

It ain't anywhere near 23 F.... yesterday 21 is not 19 (19 is a TEEN)... close but no cigar (should have stuck with 22)
I've got 28.7F at my apartment inside the loop close to Memorial Park right now. You seriously think it can't drop 5 more degrees tonight after it dropped by 25 in an hour less than 48 hours ago?
Ben, the temps won't drop that fast tonight. They will drop to mid twenties, maybe. The reason they won't drop that fast - the air mass is already in place. Plus, there is cloud cover. It's not like it's replacing a warm air mass. Precip will be determined by what's way up there... and what's down here.
Hope this helps ya.


Even though I live in the FL panhandle, I wouldn't mind seeing some snow.. Would be a sight down here.. :)
Quoting Grecojdw:
looks like a band of mix precip coming into the Fl Panhandle:)


Its not really coming just yet.. Its slowly but surely..



Maybe by 3am or so we could see some precipitation if we r lucky..
EnergyMoron~ I thought I'd about finished with making this old house efficient. Let a energy guru in that pointed out I still had a solar attic fan to go. Would save me ~2/3rd of what a solar water heater would a year & cost $500 or less.

I also spent ~$50 at Silicon Solar the other week on education kits, broken bits of solar panels, diodes, leds, photocells, the wire to solder them together panels with & a larger panel that needs encased. We're beginning to dismantle unwanted battery operated toys too. I took the YouTube courses on soldering & making panels from scrap (~20 mins).

So far we've made solar panels for battery chargers that double as a fan & nightlight. I think I changed the way we will camp, charge batteries & some of these little electronics. It's a start.
clickable link now on my blog page for classic wunderground located at very bottom of my blog page

Link to classic view
Link
Quoting Seawall:
Ben, the temps won't drop that fast tonight. They will drop to mid twenties, maybe. The reason they won't drop that fast - the air mass is already in place. Plus, there is cloud cover. It's not like it's replacing a warm air mass. Precip will be determined by what's way up there... and what's down here.
Hope this helps ya.
Thanks for the explanation Seawall. I was expecting maybe 25 or so. I was a little skeptical of the 23, but wondered why EnergyMoron sounded so sure it wouldn't drop that low. That helped.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #36
TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI (14U)
2:00 PM EST February 3 2011
=========================================

At 1:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category One (986 hPa) located at 19.8S 142.1E, or 150 km northwest of Richmond and 295 km east northeast of Mt Isa has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 20 knots.

YASI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, BUT IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ABOUT THE TROPICAL INTERIOR.

DAMAGING WINDS, with gusts above 90 km/h, are occurring through much of the tropical interior. These winds are forecast to extend to the Northern Territory border including Mount Isa. Overnight TC Yasi will be near the Northern Territory border west of Mt Isa as a tropical depression with DAMAGING WINDS still expected to its south.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS moving with the cyclone may produce localised flash flooding during Thursday afternoon and evening.

Flash Flooding and Dangerous surf will continue about the east coast between Cairns and Proserpine, see separate SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.

TIDE levels are now falling and are not expected to pose any further threat to coastal areas between Port Douglas and Ayr.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
====================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for communities across the tropical interior from west of Charters Towers and south of Croydon extending to the Northern Territory border, including Mt Isa and Longreach.

The Cyclone WARNING from Cardwell to Ayr and inland to Charters Towers has been cancelled.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
907 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...FROZEN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

.VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS AIR WILL COMBINE
WITH MODERATE WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
VALUES FROM NOW THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...THE APPROACH
OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
WEST...COMBINED WITH THE FORMATION OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...WILL PRODUCE SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...
MAINLY FROM THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THURSDAY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS OF FRIDAY.

TXZ250-251-253>257-031115-
/O.UPG.KBRO.WS.A.0001.110203T1800Z-110204T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBRO.WS.W.0001.110203T1800Z-110204T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KBRO.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110204T1800Z/
BROOKS-KENEDY-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FALFURRIAS...SARITA...MCALLEN...
EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...
BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
907 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...WIND CHILL WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON CST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
FRIDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE LONE STAR STATE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE APPROACH OF THIS DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH THE FORMATION OF
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...
WILL PRODUCE FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND NOON
THURSDAY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR THAT RUNS FROM MCALLEN
TO FALFURRIAS. WEST OF THIS CORRIDOR...SNOW AND SLEET ARE LIKELY.
THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING
EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR...AND SNOW AND SLEET WEST OF THE
CORRIDOR. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO A HALF
INCH POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR.

ALSO...MODERATE WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH COLD ARCTIC
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 5 AND 15
DEGREES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BETWEEN 15 AND 25 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO OR BELOW 20 FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS. PERSONS NOT
ACCLIMATED TO THESE EXTREME VALUES MAY EXPERIENCE FROSTBITE IF NOT
PROTECTED...AND COULD DIE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER IS
IMMINENT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST ONE INCH ON ROADS OR
WALKWAYS...AT LEAST ONE HALF INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION...OR ICE
ACCRETION OF ONE EIGHTH INCH OR MORE ON EXPOSED SURFACES.
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL
PLANS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO POSTPONE THEM
UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

&&

$$
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Even though I live in the FL panhandle, I wouldn't mind seeing some snow.. Would be a sight down here.. :)


Is that for this upcoming storm or that one that is the "hypothetical storm"sometime next week? If it is this week, are the forecast temperatures going to drop a few degrees if it does pan out for NW Florida?
Quoting Grecojdw:


Is that for this upcoming storm or that one that is the "hypothetical storm"sometime next week? If it is this week, are the forecast temperatures going to drop a few degrees if it does pan out for NW Florida?


No its for next week.. Just most models are point this out for a few days now.. maybe 2 days b4 we will know a lil better.. B/c we need the right ingredients for this to happen here.. So there is potential that we need to watch..

Right now that band hasn't moved are way for the past 30mins and we might need see any precipitation.. Might see chilly rain all day tomorrow unless are temps somehow stay in the 30's.. Most likely not..


Looks like the cold air will be on the march near the middle of next week into the weekend heading towards the southeast.. Should be watch.. IMO
This is getting more than a bit serious now here in South Central Louisiana/Acadiana. Quoting from the latest discusion from the NWS Lake Charles office:

A COUPLE OF CONCERNING DEVELOPMENTS HAVE EMERGED IN LATEST MODELDATA FOR TOMORROW...LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS.

GIVEN THE INCREASING PROBABILITY THAT WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET FROM THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE INTO LAKE CHARLES...HAVE REPLACED THE ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC...WITH MORE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SHOWING UP IN DETERMINATION METHODS THAN SNOW. WILL LET THE MIDSHIFT FURTHER EVALUATE THIS AS ADDITIONAL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.


Also, they have tweaked the forecast for my portion of the woods (Opelousas) to call for 2" accumulations of sleet and up to 1/2" accumulation of ice. Though, I wouldn't rule out snow by any means.

We already have cherry pickers running to trim the trees from the power lines in anticipation of the icing.

They've cancelled school for tomorrow in St. Landry and Lafayette Parishes, and I'm sure that Friday will be called off, too.

And yet, I have an evening work shift which I can't avoid, so I'll probably have to work through all this. Nice.

Later today should be real interesting down here. Wish me luck.


Anthony
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Looks like the cold air will be on the march near the middle of next week into the weekend heading towards the southeast.. Should be watch.. IMO

Look at those isotherms in North Mexico! Could that be the most extreme non-elevation temperature variation ever??
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #37
TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI (14U)
5:00 PM EST February 3 2011
=========================================

At 4:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category One (988 hPa) located at 20.0S 141.6E, or 180 km west northwest of Richmond and 235 km east northeast of Mt Isa has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
160 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Yasi continues to weaken but damaging wind gusts are still possible about the tropical interior.

DAMAGING WINDS, with gusts to 100 km/h, are occurring through much of the tropical interior. These winds are forecast to contract from the east, and extend towards the Northern Territory border west of Mount Isa this evening. Overnight Tropical Cyclone Yasi will weaken below cyclone intensity as it approaches the border, although strong gusts will still be possible to its south.

HEAVY RAINS are forecast to move with the cyclone and cause localised flooding across the tropical interior.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for communities across the tropical interior from west of Hughenden to the Northern Territory border, including Mt Isa and Longreach.

The Cyclone WARNING in the area between Hughenden towards Charters Towers has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 21.0S 138.9E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
24 HRS: 22.1S 136.9E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 23.5S 133.8E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================
Tropical Cyclone Yasi remains a symmetric system as it moves across the north Queensland interior. Convection has weakened around the system and cloud top temperatures have warmed since Yasi crossed the coast earlier this morning.

Yasi is expected to maintain a west southwesterly track as it moves towards central Australia over the next couple of days. Although the cyclone is weakening over land strong and gusty conditions are expected to the south of the system with mixing of low level winds to the surface, particularly during daylight hours.
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone notice the tongue of warm water into the loop current in the Gulf. Anyone have a comparison to last year's SST in the Gulf? Come on, there is nothing on TV but NCIS reruns.



The Unisys site has SST archives including anomalies. the Gulf has been cooler than normal for several weeks.
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/

The site also has daily SST data
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssd&inv=0&t=cur

the cold fronts have been going well into Gulf this year and reducing water temperature. The Northwestern end of the Gulf has been getting subfreezing dry air which is then heated by the warmer Gulf waters. The dry air allows more evaporation which further increases cooling.

The weather in the Northern hemisphere is consistent with a shift to a cooler sun. As solar heating declines the land areas cool faster than the oceans creating an expanded version of the lake effect snows.
Quoting Skyepony:
EnergyMoron~ I thought I'd about finished with making this old house efficient. Let a energy guru in that pointed out I still had a solar attic fan to go. Would save me ~2/3rd of what a solar water heater would a year & cost $500 or less.

I also spent ~$50 at Silicon Solar the other week on education kits, broken bits of solar panels, diodes, leds, photocells, the wire to solder them together panels with & a larger panel that needs encased. We're beginning to dismantle unwanted battery operated toys too. I took the YouTube courses on soldering & making panels from scrap (~20 mins).

So far we've made solar panels for battery chargers that double as a fan & nightlight. I think I changed the way we will camp, charge batteries & some of these little electronics. It's a start.


You rock.
I think even if I knew how to post the video, I wouldn't since it might be taken as if I was making light of the situation. But listening to the Beeb while rading this site, the announcer refered to the fire's in Cairo. So with all due respect: Fire In Cairo.
451. IKE
Per CNN....no deaths in Australia from the tropical cyclone. I heard yesterday that the death toll from the winter storm in the USA was at 10. It's probably risen by now.
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Let's see... my job was $7,000 (I had to fix an unsafe solar hot water system so don't let that scare you)....

The unit will cost you minimum 1,500 (since I heat my house with water 2,500), less 500 cost for a tank unit. Thus at least 1,000

1,000 installation.

So that is at least 2,000 dollars.

And is your house up to electric code? You will need to plug the tankless in somewhere (your old tank unit probably works with a pilot light).

I just want to be as honest as possible (for a new build putting in a tank is silly).

CFLs quickest payout.


@EnergyMoron, can you take a look at this tankless water heater, please? It's $550, not $1500. Also, I've already got the "27 KW 3x9000 112.5 Amp" service for the Eco 27 model. I'm looking at the installation manual (but it's clear from the pics...you don't need to read that). I can run the wire myself. And the plumbing hookup seems quite straightforward for a plumber. I can go to Craigslist and get a licensed weekender to do the job for $300 MAX. Whatcha think?
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Stop the name calling.

I read the article in question and am aware of the logical flaws.

What does a pure ad hominer attack have to do with science?

This is meant as a purely rhetorical question, but are you a troll for the Koch's?

Umm---what? "Name calling"? I merely rearranged the letters in his name to suit my needs--which is pretty much what he does with the scientific facts to suit his.

Try and prove me wrong. ;-)
454. IKE
From Birmingham,AL....

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE QUITE A RANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE
DEPARTMENT. SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST THAT WE WILL BE FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. AFTER THAT...A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH THE LATTER ONE POTNETIALLY BRINGING THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS WINTER.

FIRST ITEM OF ORDER...MOS GUIDANCE IS RUNNING WAY TOO WARM DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO IT BEING HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY CLIMO.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE PHYSICAL SOLUTIONS WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDELING
THIS BETTER.

SECOND ITEM...PRECIPITATION. MORE THAN LIKELY...MOST IF NOT ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS A GOOD CHANCE AT SEING SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTION MARKS THOUGH AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO SPLIT FAR FROM
EACH OTHER FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS. BOTH MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH MOVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE WELL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AREA WIDE TO
SUPPORT A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH WHATEVER LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS LEFT. THIS IS NOT THE SCENARIO TO
SEE ANY KIND OF HEAVY SNOW. THE GFS DOES WANT TO BRING A POST
FRONTAL SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF AREA...BUT BOTH GEM AND
ECMWF NOT SUPPORTING THIS...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT EVERYTHING PRECIP
FREE ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE SET TO RAPIDLY
TRANSITION AND IT IS ALSO WHEN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE
(GEM IS NOT AVAILABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD). THERE IS A LOT OF
COLD AIR IN PLACE AND BOTH MODELS BRING IN MOISTURE BACK WITH THE
GFS BEING THE FASTEST...BRINGING PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS...IT WILL ALL BE SNOW.
SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW NO SIGNS OF ANY WARM AIR INTRUSION BY EITHER
MODEL.

NOW...THE REASON BOTH MODELS DIVERGE IS THAT THE ECMWF HITS US WITH
A WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS IT DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF. THE GFS IS NOWHERE NEAR THAT AS
IT ONLY SHOWS A SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH SUCH A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODEL...WILL
NOT BITE ON A PARTICULAR SOLUTION. I WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT SINCE THE GFS AT LEAST SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT AND COLD AIR IN PLACE.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND...BOTH MODELS PROJECT WHAT COULD BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
SO FAR THIS WINTER. DEFINITELY SOMETHING THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING
CLOSELY.

10/ARM

455. DDR
Good morning
The gfs shows 6 inches of rain accumulation over Trinidad for the next 7 days,interesting but not impossible.
Neo, re; #453.. The rants against JB read like an MSNBC blog. Nothing but far left leaning name calling against anyone right of center. Really, rants against Sarah, Rush and anybody on the right are featured. Soooo, any one center right HAS to be wrong. I'd give it a little more credence if all the responses were not progressive temper trantrums. BTW, I'm all for finding ways to get off of fossil fuels. Not because of climate change, but to quit sending money to peoples who would do our country harm, so we agree on that. You have a great day!!!
From the Miami NWS Discussion:

NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF NEXT WEEK`S COLD FRONT, HOWEVER A MUCH DRIER AND
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE REGION. THE GFS
INDICATES A SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY WITH A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT MID WEEK, HOWEVER THE
ECMWF IS A TOUCH WEAKER (WARMER) WITH A PAIR OF FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN THURS. ATTM TIMING AND TEMPS ARE
HARD TO NAIL DOWN, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.
Thanks for the blizzard list. I was in the blizzard of 79 in Chicago. Just started school. Mayor Bilandic lost his job because of that blizzard. The city was reporting side streets plowed when they weren't. (Well that's not entirely true. City official's side street were plowed.) If you just focus on one city you miss the bigger picture. There was the blizzard of 78 which extended from Chicago to the east coast. I was caught in Fort Wayne for 4 days as I was on a road trip. It took 12 hours to travel 130 miles during that storm. Another blizzard the same year struck a week later and shut down Pennsylvania and New Jersey. NJ had the best plowing system for it's freeways that I have ever seen. Going back some more, there was the blizzard of 73 that hit Milwaukee in April. 36 inches fell in one day. In three days it had melted significantly. I didn't make it all the way home and ended up staying at a friends house. There was the blizzard of 93 that hit an area south and east of Lake Michigan. Stayed at a fellow workers house for a day.

When traveling in these areas it quickly becomes apparent that how the local highway department handles the snow makes all the difference between whether things stay open or not. Traveling home from the blizzard in 93 there was a distinct difference in how well plowing had been done when crossing the county line. When caught in Fort Wayne in 78 the Sheriff had enlisted local ham radio operators with 4 wheelers to do mundane service tasks like delivering medicine and shoveling out elderly people's doors. In 79 in Chicago you shoveled out a parking space in front of your house. Heaven help the person who parked in someone else's parking space. When the city started doing side streets a year later they really couldn't plow the snow anywhere so they just drove down the streets with the sanders going full blast pelting the parked cars with large pieces of rock salt.
the hottest meteorologist in the world? others? twc girl at night miss egger
g'morning ike, nea, if ya'll are still here

we got any better tweaking for the end'o'next'week's cold snap for our area?
Quoting BigToe:
Neo, re; #453.. The rants against JB read like an MSNBC blog. Nothing but far left leaning name calling against anyone right of center. Really, rants against Sarah, Rush and anybody on the right are featured. Soooo, any one center right HAS to be wrong. I'd give it a little more credence if all the responses were not progressive temper trantrums. BTW, I'm all for finding ways to get off of fossil fuels. Not because of climate change, but to quit sending money to peoples who would do our country harm, so we agree on that. You have a great day!!!

I don't recall anyone bringing politics into this discussion; it began--and should stay with--weather. I merely called out a popular, though very often wrong, meteorologist on yet another of his very wrong forecasts. In this case, that forecast--that January 2011 would be the coldest month out of the last 300--was picked up and loudly trumpeted by both "global cooling" wishers and that forecaster's sycophants. But now that forecast has been proven wrong, I believe the absence of a mea culpa from that meteorologist is deafening, and in any case certainly says a lot about both his abilities and his prejudices.

As I've so often said: JB needs to stick with short-term weather forecasting--which he's good at--and leave the long-term climate forecasting to those who know what they're talking about. Either that, or be prepared to be challenged. Simple enough, no?

You, too, have a great day...
morning wunder bloggers
geoffrry- thanks - I saw it last night and it still makes me smile
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning ike, nea, if ya'll are still here

we got any better tweaking for the end'o'next'week's cold snap for our area?
hi keeper, g'morning, that's exactl;y what I wanted.

well not really the temps or the blues but

thank you for posting that
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
morning wunder bloggers
Good morning Keep.
@ #464, Cantore ALMOST let go w/ the B word. LOL
aquak9 your welcome
morning hydrus
Keep, that looks like some Mighty cold snap for the SE next week. Hope it's the last for the season.
Quoting aquak9:
hi keeper, g'morning, that's exactl;y what I wanted.

well not really the temps or the blues but

thank you for posting that
Good morning Aquak9..
Quoting Neapolitan:

As I've so often said: JB needs to stick with short-term weather forecasting--which he's good at--and leave the long-term climate forecasting to those who know what they're talking about. Either that, or be prepared to be challenged. Simple enough, no?

You, too, have a great day...


Exactly. If someone wants to play scientist in a new field for them, then they should be prepared to be criticized by the scientists already established in the field who know much more about it. This becomes especially true when someone makes many a hypothesis that turn out to be wrong with little basis in already established theory. Peer review and literature review are both parts of the foundation of science.
Quoting BigToe:
Keep, that looks like some Mighty cold snap for the SE next week. Hope it's the last for the season.

maybe it is
but one thing for sure its one of the last anyway
we got 47 days till spring pushes in
at the end of the run looks like warm air is getting stronger to fla. west
and each push of warm air should soon get stronger and stronger
until it pushes the cold air further and further north

maybe it is
but one thing for sure its one of the last anyway
we got 47 days till spring pushes in
at the end of the run looks like warm air is getting stronger to fla. west
and each push of warm air should soon get stronger and stronger
until it pushes the cold air further and further north
----------------------
Folks in Fl should get the smudge pots ready for next week!!
hi hydrus

I am so thankful for my warm weather- no sunshine, but at least it's not cold
Feb 3:
Unofficially, there are currently 52 stations that have broken their daily low record, 2 that are tying it, and 23 that are near it.
http://coolwx.com/record/
Link
Link

Lakeshore is still closed in one lane in Chicago. Look at the good side. All those cars parked there will not be getting in the way of the plows in the neighborhoods.

So Nea,
What are your long term climate predictions. Please give 2, 5, 10, 20 years and beyond. This way we can all look back and see if your a buffoon or lucky and please be specific since you are all knowing and everyone who doesn't think exactly like you are deniers or uneducated.
Quoting whtAmaroon:
So Nea,
What are your long term climate predictions. Please give 2, 5, 10, 20 years and beyond. This way we can all look back and see if your a buffoon or lucky and please be specific since you are all knowing and everyone who doesn't think exactly like you are deniers or uneducated.

Ummm--what? I'm really not "all-knowing"; I may just seem that way when compared to, say, JB. ;-) But, okay, my ironclad* climate prediction: in 10 years, the overall global climate will be warmer than now. In 20 years, the overall global climate will be both much warmer than now, and warmer than where it will be in 10 years.

There you go. Write it down, and look me up in 2031.

* - Should an extremely rare though possible large-scale event occur that would drive global temps downward for a large number of years, this prediction is invalid. Such events include all-out thermonuclear war, a high-speed collision between earth and a space object larger than 3 miles across, or a long-term supervolcano eruption.
GFS 06z starting to agree with the ECMWF for a Deep South Snow storm with snow possible all the way down to the coast.



Despite all of the claims, last month was quite a bit warmer than the same month a few years ago, during the last strong La Nina, and the current one is (still) much stronger, thus the underlying temperature is even warmer (see here for an analysis that removes the effects of ENSO):


(modified with 2008 temperature, from here, and trend, click to see original and source, from you-know-who)

Here is the latest update on the strength of La Nina, which has weakened slightly over the past few weeks but remains at or near record levels:

Strong La Niña event persists in the Pacific

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has declined slightly over the past two weeks, yet remains strongly positive. The latest (31 January) 30-day SOI value is +21, comparable to the highest January monthly SOI value on record (20.8), recorded in both 1974 and 1890.


Oh yeah, earlier last month I made a bet with the deniers - if January 2011 was colder than January 2008, I would declare (in a blog post) that global warming was a scam - and if it was warmer, they they would have to stop denying global warming!

Of course, I don't think anybody actually took it on (I posted it here, comment 166) - but they were no doubt afraid to lose. On the other hand, they would still claim (are claiming) that this is the start of a real long-term cooling trend, no matter what!

One last note - I point out that the warming trend from 2008 to 2011 is +0.301°C, or about 1 degree per decade - but of course that isn't the real underlying warming trend, which is about +0.17°C per decade (see first link to the analysis that removes ENSO and other natural variations). On the other hand, I have heard talk of global temperatures "jumping" to a new higher level in 2010, similar to what happened in 1998. Or maybe it is just from a stronger El Nino, compared to 2007, the residual warming from which is still masking some of the La Nina cooling.
Quoting kellnerp:
Lakeshore is still closed in one lane in Chicago. Look at the good side. All those cars parked there will not be getting in the way of the plows in the neighborhoods.




Thats a good angle,,

Looked just like in 67 save for the SUV's.





Quoting Drakoen:
GFS 06z starting to agree with the ECMWF for a Deep South Snow storm with snow possible all the way down to the coast.





Hey Drak,..

Keep um coming.


Geaux Sneaux.

Quoting Patrap:


Hey Drak,..

Keep um coming.


Geaux Sneaux.



A lot of time to watch this one but I like the setup that is being displayed by the models. Cold air coming down from Canada and a GOM low far enough south to allow the 850mb freezing line to really come south.


... Houston Winter Storm Warning in effect from noon today to noon CST Friday...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Winter Storm Warning for snow... sleet and freezing rain... which
is in effect from noon today to noon CST Friday. The Winter Storm
Watch is no longer in effect.

An upper level storm system approaching from the west will
combine with increasing moisture and cold temperatures in the
lower atmosphere to generate a mix of snow... sleet... and freezing
rain across southeast Texas this afternoon through Friday
morning. The precipitation is expected to begin during the early
afternoon near the coast... and spread area wide by evening. The
wintry mix will continue Thursday night then taper off late
morning Friday.
Good morning everyone. I see the people who have been up all night need to go to bed. Tempers are short. It is another beautiful CoC day in the Keys. I am looking at the forecast for next week and wonder how cold it will get down here. Maybe not too much. It is definitely beginning to feel like spring here:)
Quoting whtAmaroon:
So Nea,
What are your long term climate predictions. Please give 2, 5, 10, 20 years and beyond. This way we can all look back and see if your a buffoon or lucky and please be specific since you are all knowing and everyone who doesn't think exactly like you are deniers or uneducated.


since I agree with most of Nea's thoughts on AGW (though my political views are shot gun scatttered over any spectrum you'd care to bring up), I thought I'd chime in with my predictions:

Scenario 1: Stay the same as we are:

Climate: Arctic Ice melts in 3-5 years, accelerating Greenland Ice sheet melt. Current rates of melt accelerate from 1mm/year (just Greenland) to 20mm/year. Methane release from permafrost and near land hydrates is released. Temperatures continue to climb resulting in massive changes to eco systems worldwide: coral bleaching, loss of fisheries, drought and deluge both.

Politically: Oil imports stop or slow down enourmously as a result of rising need in heavy industry in third world countries, backlash terrorism against Western oil refineries and rising prices that put casual oil consumption beyond the reach of many. (Yeah odd that but that is actually how I see it) Deulge and dought kill billions around the world through lack of food, disease, and fighting. The electric revolution comes anyway but ineffectively now. American society becomes more segregated and polarized. Financial crisis as physical and sociopolitical risk levels drive investment away innovation. Climate refugee crisis overwhelms infrastucture.

Basically, the world returns to the dark ages feudalism (in terms of isolated communities) and any idea of American dream or Norman Rockwell is trashed. Though with nice tech gadgets.


Scenario 2:


Stay the same but AGW is fixed, Deus ex machina style, let's say 10 years from now. Not necessarily Deux but for example the Chinese put up a big space umbrella to save us. Point of scenario is we continue in this path and AGW isn't a big deal.

Cimate:

Artic ice melts (irrevopcable at this point, I think). Coral bleaching, loss of many fisheries. Some flooding or coastal areas, more frequent weather changes. Loss of many species, thousands/millions die due to loss of agriculture, food price upheavals, and unsanitary conditions. Still climate refugees but not as bad as scenario 1.

Politically:
US continues to import oil. Slowly worldwide green renewable revolution takes place. People become self sufficient and understand the value of self sufficiency economically. Eventually this revolution comes to the US as well. US will be a financial wreck for generations since our only product that sells internationally is technology and we will lose that leadership thanks to 1) the law of averages (1 billion Chinese on the average will invent more than 500 million Americans given same education and entropreneurial system) and 2) the continual squashing of American science and rationality by polticians who have discovered how to sell their ideals for the votes of the ignorant. [At some point, technology will remove the need for workers or work. At that point an asset independent country with no debt will be able to survive just fine. After that point, debt will spiral out of control.]

Scenario 3:

The world comes togather, admits there is AGW and agrees on stopping AGW togather. All the climate problems of scenario 2 continue however, but the world works togather to fix the problems. Debt will still be a problem but with the anti-science climate removed politically, the US will stand a fighting chance to regain our economic independence.


*Author's note. I realize this post makes me seem a semi-nutcase. But if you remove the 'everything is magically ok' solution, making projections somehow makes everyone sound like that, I hope (at least, I hope it isn't just me). I think it would be fun, perhaps on another blog, to debate futurism re global warming because I think it is one of hte most overlooked parts of what will happen because of AGW.