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Groundhog: Six more weeks of winter!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:55 PM GMT on February 02, 2009

Punxsutawney Pennsylvania's famous prognosticating rodent, Punxsutawney Phil, saw his shadow this morning. According to tradition, this means that a solid six more weeks of winter can be expected across the U.S. From the official web site of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, groundhog.org:

Here Ye! Here Ye! Here Ye!

On Gobbler's Knob on this fabulous Groundhog Day, February 2nd, 2009
Punxsutawney Phil, the Seer of Seers, Prognosticator of all Prognosticators,
Awoke to the call of President Bill Cooper
And greeted his handlers, Ben Hughes and John Griffiths

After casting a joyful eye toward thousands of his faithful followers,
Phil proclaimed that his beloved Pittsburgh Steelers were World Champions one more time

And a bright sky above me
Showed my shadow beside me.

Six more weeks of winter it will be.


How did this this crazy tradition start?
It all started in Europe, centuries ago, when February 2 was a holiday called Candlemas. On Candlemas, people prayed for mild weather for the remainder of winter. The superstition arose that if a hibernating badger woke up and saw its shadow on Candlemas, there would be six more weeks of severe winter weather. When Europeans settled the New World, they didn't find any badgers. So, instead of building wooden badgers, they decided to use native groundhogs (aka the woodchuck, land beaver, or whistlepig) as their prognosticating rodent.

What the models say
The latest 16-day run of the GFS model shows the jet stream retreating to a position in southern Canada in about a week, which will usher in milder temperatures over the eastern half of the U.S. compared to average. However, the model predicts that a series of cold air outbreaks typical for February will occasionally dip down over northern regions of the U.S. over the coming two weeks, bringing colder than average temperatures to the Pacific Northwest, and near average temperatures to the Midwest and Northeast. The latest 1-month and 3-month outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center show a continuation of this pattern for the remainder of winter and into Spring, with a heightened chance of above-average temperatures in the Southern U.S. Cooler than average temperatures in the Northern Plains are typical when weak La Niña conditions are present in the Eastern Pacific (Figure 1), as is currently the case.


Figure 1. Departure of winter temperature from average for winters when a weak La Niña event was present. Temperatures in the Northern Plains have typically been 1-2°F below average for the eight winters in the past 50 years that have had weak La Niña events. Image credit: Jan Null, Golden Gate Weather, and NOAA/ESRL.

Kentucky's ice storm
Six more weeks of winter is not what ice storm-battered Kentucky needs, as the state continues to recover from its most widespread power outage in history. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be below freezing over the most of the state, but should warm into the 50s by the end of the week. More than half of the 600,000 customers affected by the outage have now had their power restored. The previous largest power outage in state history occurred just five months ago, when the remnants of Hurricane Ike brought wind gusts near hurricane force to Kentucky.

The Groundhog Oscillation: convincing evidence of climate change
According to a 2001 article published in the prestigious Annals of Improbable Research titled, "The Groundhog Oscillation: Evidence of Global Change", Punxsutawney Phil's forecasts have shown a high variability since 1980. This pattern, part of the larger "Groundhog Oscillation" or GO cycle, is convincing evidence of human-caused climate change.

More on climate change in my next post on Tuesday or Wednesday, when I'll look at claims that the Earth has been cooling since 1998.

Jeff Masters
Uphill
Uphill
This short Ozarks up hill road was covered with downed trees yesterday before neighbors worked all day to clear it. Needless to say, we've got great neighbors.
Power out
Power out
Promise of Spring
Promise of Spring
Winter of 2009 ice storm in Ky.

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Great blog to start the week Doc! Thanks.
SuperStorm baby!!!!....what a dud. :(


TONIGHT
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW
LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
60 PERCENT.

TUESDAY
SNOW LIKELY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. BRISK WITH
LOWS AROUND 16. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.


Perfect Patrap! that poor mistreated groundhog, they made him get up and out and was obvious he did not want to.
The Groundhog Oscillation: convincing evidence of climate change.......

So now the groundhog is being compared to it. I won't even say what it is.
30 dead in record heatwave
Article from: The Daily Telegraph

February 02, 2009

MORE than 30 Victorians have died in the record heatwave that threatens to bring further chaos to the state.
A shell-shocked Premier John Brumby toured bushfire-ravaged Gippsland yesterday and admitted the scorching temperatures had taken their toll on the state.

Melbourne's heat-stressed rail network will be tested again as tens of thousands of students return to school today.

And many small business owners are still furious about rolling power stoppages that threw the city into chaos on Friday night.

"I know it has not been a perfect week," Mr Brumby said.

Up to 30 houses were destroyed when deliberately lit fires swept through Boolarra and Mirboo North over the weekend. Fire chiefs said the bushfire threat remained critical across the state.

The coroner will today start investigating scores of deaths during the heatwave, which saw the mercury soar past 43C for three days in a row in Melbourne.

Police said at least 30 people died from heat stress and Deputy Commissioner Kieran Walshe said there could be more deaths to come.

"The temperatures are still going to be up there. We would have a concern potentially more people could suffer heat-related issues that may result in fatality."

Stifling conditions are forecast to continue in the north of the state, with the mercury tipped to top 40C most days this week in the Murray River towns of Mildura, Swan Hill, Echuca and Wodonga.

Some relief is in store for southern regions, with the weather bureau tipping temperatures in the low 30s for Melbourne.

Animal's keeping cool in the extreme heat
Link
Quoting IKE:
The Groundhog Oscillation: convincing evidence of climate change.......

So now the groundhog is being compared to it. I won't even say what it is.

I agree
Quoting AussieStorm:

I agree


Thanks Aussie...and thanks for what you post on here.
Here's how things are shaping up regarding the developing low and associated weather:



EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
936 AM EST MON FEB 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD...

DEVELOPING GULF LOW CONTINUES E TOWARD THE WRN FL CST. AN ORGANIZED
LINE OF STORMS APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE AS WELL OFFSHORE THE SW FL
COAST.

LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FEATURE WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY RICH
MOISTURE SOUTH OF PSEUDO WARM FRONT TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE SRN
PENINSULA. MODEST SFC HEATING SHOULD BOOST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF MAIN
CLUSTER BY AFTN. 0-3KM SHEAR SUPPORTS EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND/OR
BOWING STRUCTURES. WHILE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD...THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR ONE OR TWO TORNADOES.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT INCREASING
CONCERN ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION NORTH
TO BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES

All Latest HWO's


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
929 AM EST MON FEB 2 2009

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-022100-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
929 AM EST MON FEB 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND STRONG TO DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM AVON PARK TO SARASOTA. IF
THUNDER IS HEARD OR LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED MOVE INDOOR IMMEDIATELY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
CAUSING DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. IN ADDITION...A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE AND BECOME STRONGER.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE BRIEF WATERSPOUTS AS THEY MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF VENICE INLET. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO
THE EAST AROUND 20 KNOTS...ANY MARINERS THAT SPOT A WATERSPOUT
SHOULD STEER PERPENDICULAR TO AND AWAY FROM THE STORMS PATH.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
REINFORCING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND
A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ALSO BE 10 TO 15 MPH AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE VERY COLD
WIND CHILL READINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

maybe no superstorm,but look for the NC low to regenerate along the coast....a little better than a 50/50 chance of a Nor'easter..IMO,the ingredents are all there,as always w/weather its all about timing...I would not right this storm off yet......
He's joking right?He likes to light the match to see if it catches fire.

Punxsutawney Phil's forecasts have shown a high variability since 1980. This pattern, part of the larger "Groundhog Oscillation" or GO cycle, is convincing evidence of human-caused climate change.


Its very active now.....

14. P451
Quoting stillwaiting:
maybe no superstorm,but look for the NC low to regenerate along the coast....a little better than a 50/50 chance of a Nor'easter..IMO,the ingredents are all there,as always w/weather its all about timing...I would not right this storm off yet......


You're right, given how poorly the models have functioned, there's no reason to lend full credibility to them now either.

As of now it seems it's probably not going to happen though. Yet, as two bloggers posted yesterday, that 2000 storm that decimated NC wasn't even supposed to happen (QPF models) so you never know.

Yet, this AM's discussions:

Mount Holly, NJ

STILL NOT A CLEAR CUT SITUATION AHEAD, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR A
HEAVY SNOW IS GONE WITH THE LOW PRESSURES REMAINING OVER THE ATLANTIC,
BUT WE ARE STILL IN FOR SOME SNOW. WHAT WE`RE LEFT WITH IS ACCUMULATIONS
ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, BUT THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WIND
AND COLD FOLLOWING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE AND THE UPPER LOW BACK
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WEAK FRONT WILL BE ABSORBED IN THE
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE COAST BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL. ANOTHER
AREA OF SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THERE IS A WEAK
SURFACE CONNECTION BETWEEN THE TWO WITH THE SNOW FILLING IN OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SNOW WILL FALL STEADILY INTO THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH JERSEY COAST WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THE UMBILICAL CORD BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
BREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST
BUT ENDING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

and

New York City:

ANY LIGHT RAIN OR WINTRY MIX WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF
STATES IS EXPECTED MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SNOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY TUESDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT.

4" Probability Day 1: (all 10% range)



4" Probability Day 2:



QPF 5 Day Total:



morning TS,hell of a game last night,huh???...who'd-a-though that game would be that close???,they didn't cover the 7 pt spread,so I'm sure ALOT of people lost money last night,not me I predicted a final score of
pitt:27
ariz:10


I got one score right,though I bet zero dollars on the game!!!!!

West coast of FL,WATCH OUT!!!!!..there is a line of strong storms forming about 150 miles west in the gulf,as these storms intensify and move east expect widespread winds of 40-50mph as the line moves across the coastal areas between 4 and 6 pm......a shortlived isolated tornado or waterspout is possible thru 6pm......
Good Morning all :)
Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
New Section includes Mt Redoubt
I would say 6-8 inches in NYC with higher amounts further east from the end of long island and the cape 10-14 inches.....its all about if the GOM lows energy gets absorbed by the coastal NC low and how far north it moves depends on how strong the coastal low gets...IMO
18. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:
He's joking right?He likes to light the match to see if it catches fire.

Punxsutawney Phil's forecasts have shown a high variability since 1980. This pattern, part of the larger "Groundhog Oscillation" or GO cycle, is convincing evidence of human-caused climate change.




And then another blog on it on Tuesday or Wednesday...

"More on climate change in my next post on Tuesday or Wednesday, when I'll look at claims that the Earth has been cooling since 1998.

Jeff Masters"........

I'm sure your next blog entry will warm up the planet with the arguing that goes on in here over it.

Hurricane season can't start soon enough.....

118+ days and it's here....
Quoting NEwxguy:
He's joking right?He likes to light the match to see if it catches fire.

Punxsutawney Phil's forecasts have shown a high variability since 1980. This pattern, part of the larger "Groundhog Oscillation" or GO cycle, is convincing evidence of human-caused climate change.



Yes
Quoting KEHCharleston:

Yes


Stir stick?
Look, if this NOAA study is correct it should have permanently ended all discussion about you know what!


New Study Shows Climate Change Largely Irreversible
January 26, 2009

A new scientific study led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reaches a powerful conclusion about the climate change caused by future increases of carbon dioxide: to a large extent, there%u2019s no going back.

The pioneering study, led by NOAA senior scientist Susan Solomon, shows how changes in surface temperature, rainfall, and sea level are largely irreversible for more than 1,000 years after carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are completely stopped. The findings appear during the week of January 26 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Link
Quoting Orcasystems:


Stir stick?

Not yet ... Reflex
Coffee first, straight up - nothing to dilute the caffiene
I never wanted to be a Climatologist,..I wanted to be a Link
NEW OUTLOOK POSTED:
South Florida StormWatch
25. IKE
I believe that study. Kind of like a person with glaucoma..whatever damage has been done is irreversible.
Groundhog (Woodchuck) Pie Recipe..Link
27. P451
Quoting stillwaiting:
I would say 6-8 inches in NYC with higher amounts further east from the end of long island and the cape 10-14 inches.....its all about if the GOM lows energy gets absorbed by the coastal NC low and how far north it moves depends on how strong the coastal low gets...IMO


I still say this whole forecast is a crap shoot at best and the door should still be left open for NJ-NY-CT to have anywhere from a dusting to as much as a foot for we just don't yet know the development nor the movement/track of this system(s). Which is quite odd now that we're 12 hours or less away from the onset of precipitation for the region.


Meanwhile, our sea ice has done well this winter, in fact it's right in line with the median. A little short near the Scandinavian countries and also short off of east Russia yet actually a little extra off Alaska.

Arctic Sea Ice Image Jan31
Quoting Patrap:
Groundhog (Woodchuck) Pie Recipe..Link

I'll pass on that.
I could make a comment about not thinking meat should be included in pie - and the exception to that but I will just stop here...
National Teach In On Global Warming, February 5th. Many Washington State Schools participating Link

February 5th, 2009, the National Teach-In on Global Warming will engage over a million Americans in solutions-driven dialogue. Educators, students and citizens, plan a focused conversation about "the critical decisions that will determine if our descendants will inherit a prosperous or an impoverished planet.
30. IKE
I don't see anywhere near a foot of snow for sections of the NE USA based on the 12Z GFS....Link

Good news...this will be over with in a couple of days...no matter what happens.
Quoting IKE:


And then another blog on it on Tuesday or Wednesday...

"More on climate change in my next post on Tuesday or Wednesday, when I'll look at claims that the Earth has been cooling since 1998.

Jeff Masters"........

I'm sure your next blog entry will warm up the planet with the arguing that goes on in here over it.

Hurricane season can't start soon enough.....

118+ days and it's here....


Anyway of speeding up that clock?I've been doing so well keeping quiet on the whole subject,but he got me.
Quoting P451:


I still say this whole forecast is a crap shoot at best and the door should still be left open for NJ-NY-CT to have anywhere from a dusting to as much as a foot for we just don't yet know the development nor the movement/track of this system(s). Which is quite odd now that we're 12 hours or less away from the onset of precipitation for the region.


Meanwhile, our sea ice has done well this winter, in fact it's right in line with the median. A little short near the Scandinavian countries and also short off of east Russia yet actually a little extra off Alaska.

Arctic Sea Ice Image Jan31



It'll sure be interesting to watch,I have a good chance of some strong storms building in the GOM moving ashore today,associated w/the low pressure system that will be one of the ingredents....one thing thats missing is a deep layer of cold air locked in over the eastern seaboard,I talked to my friend in the NYC yesterday and he said it was actually pretty mild temp wise....he wont' be saying on that thurs/friday!!!!
33. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:


Anyway of speeding up that clock?I've been doing so well keeping quiet on the whole subject,but he got me.


LOL....


2009 National Hurricane Conference Link

April 6-April 10 |Austin Convention Center|Austin, TX

The nation's forum for education and professional training in hurricane preparedness!

Purpose of the Conference

The primary goal of the National Hurricane Conference is to improve hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in order to save lives and property in the United States and the tropical islands of the Caribbean and Pacific. In addition, the conference serves as a national forum for federal, state and local officials to exchange ideas and recommend new policies to improve Emergency Management.

To accomplish these goals, the annual conference emphasizes:



* Lessons Learned from Hurricane Strikes.

* State of the art programs worthy of emulation.

* New ideas being tested or considered.

* Information about new or ongoing assistance programs.

* The ABC's of hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation -- in recognition of the fact that there is a continual turnover of emergency management leadership and staff.
35. IKE
Debating "IT" is about as exciting as watching a soccer match.
Quoting vortfix:
Look, if this NOAA study is correct it should have permanently ended all discussion about you know what!


New Study Shows Climate Change Largely Irreversible
January 26, 2009

A new scientific study led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reaches a powerful conclusion about the climate change caused by future increases of carbon dioxide: to a large extent, there's no going back.

The pioneering study, led by NOAA senior scientist Susan Solomon, shows how changes in surface temperature, rainfall, and sea level are largely irreversible for more than 1,000 years after carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are completely stopped. The findings appear during the week of January 26 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Link


We have not figured out what will happen this week - N'easter or no n'easter? So, I find it difficult to believe we have a clue as to what will happen 1000 years from now.

Having said that, Susan Solomon is an amazing woman. Pioneered work in identifying the mechanism that produces the Antarctic ozone hole and contributions towards the protection of the ozone layer. She is not just a desk scientist, and did her own field work.

I was hoping that the 1000 year remark is out of context or mis-interpreted. Sadly it was not. (Thanks for the link, vortix)


Who Should Attend the
National Hurricane Conference? Link
I respect the heck out of Dr. Masters but it is really getting to me that he can't write a single blog without referencing into global warming - sorry, meant climate change.
40. IKE
Looks like the cold-front is racing east, now approaching Mobile,AL. Looks like the precip is already diminishing slightly in coverage...wow...I may get a quarter of an inch of rain.

Volcano erupts near Tokyo raining ash down on city
Reuters – Japan's Mount Asama erupts

… TOKYO – A volcano near Tokyo erupted Monday, shooting up billowing smoke and showering parts of the capital with a fine ash that sent some city residents to the car wash and left others puzzled over the white powder they initially mistook for snow.

Mount Asama erupted in the early hours of Monday, belching out a plume that rose about a mile (1.6 kilometers) high, Japan's Meteorological Agency said.

There were no reports of injuries or damage from the eruption of the volcano, 90 miles (145 kilometers) northwest of Tokyo. It last erupted in August, 2008, causing no major damage.

Chunks of rock from the explosion were found about 3,300 feet (1,000 meters) away from the volcano. Ash was detected over a wide area, including central Tokyo and as far as eastern Chiba.

In Tokyo's western district of Fussa, the local government office was flooded with calls from residents asking about "the mysterious white powder" falling from the sky and fire departments fielded calls from people afraid the ash was from a nearby blaze.

In the town of Karuizawa, southeast of the volcano, the ash was thick enough to obscure road markings in some areas, town official Noboru Yanagishi said.

"Some people said they heard a strange noise in the morning when the eruption occurred," he said.

The eruption was not big enough to disrupt daily life near the volcano, though many people awoke to find their cars covered in a fine layer of powder. National broadcaster NHK showed people in Tokyo lining up to get their cars washed or wiping the ash from their windows, with some drivers saying they first thought it was snow.

In Tachikawa, a district in northwestern Tokyo, some farming areas were coated with ash.

"Because it's February and not harvesting season, there was no real damage to any crops," said Shoichi Matsumoto, a local official.

In Tsumagoi, a small town on the volcano with ski resorts and hot spring baths, residents went about their business as usual. Travelers planning vacations to the area had called to inquire, but no one canceled, said Masaru Yoshida, a spokesman for the local tourist association.

"The wind has blown the ash to the other side of the mountain," he said. "It's a clear day so you can see some smoke, but not as much as we've had in the past."

Mount Asama has been active for thousands of years.

Its last major eruption took place in September 2004, spewing enough ash to damage local crops. It frequently spews smaller amounts of ash from its crater.

With 108 active volcanos, Japan is among the most seismically busy countries in the world. The country lies in the "Ring of Fire" — a series of volcanoes and fault lines that outline the Pacific Ocean.

Later Monday, the agency also reported a minor eruption at another volcano — Sakurajima in southern Japan.

An alert level of three was in place Monday for a 2.5-mile (4-kilometer) radius, which bars entry into the area and urges nearby residents to take caution.

"We don't think there will be any stronger eruptions, but we don't see the activity stopping anytime soon, either," agency official Kazuya Kokubo said
42. P451
Quoting IKE:
I don't see anywhere near a foot of snow for sections of the NE USA based on the 12Z GFS....Link

Good news...this will be over with in a couple of days...no matter what happens.


Since I want snow that means I'm going to get about 2 inches at best from this thing.

Yet the models have been terrible throughout, the QPF goes high then low then high with each subsequent model run, so we just have no idea.

As it stood, even on Friday based on all the info we had, you couldn't say whether or not points from the mid-atlantic into southern new england would have from a dusting to as much as two feet of snow.

It's been the norm ever since. Yesterday morning the QPFs were all back up off the charts. Then evening all back down. This morning back up a bit. Etc, etc.

One terribly blown forecast start to finish. Five full days of unusable model runs. Eventually they'll get it right because it'll be actually happening up here. *rolls eyes*
43. P451
Quoting stillwaiting:



It'll sure be interesting to watch,I have a good chance of some strong storms building in the GOM moving ashore today,associated w/the low pressure system that will be one of the ingredents....one thing thats missing is a deep layer of cold air locked in over the eastern seaboard,I talked to my friend in the NYC yesterday and he said it was actually pretty mild temp wise....he wont' be saying on that thurs/friday!!!!


We hit 55 in central NJ (about 40 miles south of NYC). Warmest since early November.

A front is going to sweep through this afternoon. Supposed to start as rain then transition to snow as the evening wears on.

So the cold air is being pulled into the developing system as the front moves east and gets absorbed by it.

That part of the forecast they seem 100% positive about.

The rest not so much but I really can't see how there's more than 1-4 inches of snow to be had for the region. There's just no QPF support on any models.
Here in Appleton, Wisconsin we were thrilled when the groundhog saw his shadow. ONLY six more weeks of winter!
41. Tazmanian

My brother in law and his family live in Karuizawa and described the event as a "burp". They were all in surgical masks but the ash was pretty light.
46. P451
Surface Pressure:



Pressure Changes: (GOM Low deepening nicely)

47. IKE
Update discussion from Mount Holly,NJ...

"THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING IT`S WAY TO THE EAST AND
WILL BE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MAINE, SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN
MARYLAND AND DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A DEVELOPING
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
ALSO DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH WILL BECOME THE
LOW DESTINED FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE FALLING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY BUT THAT TOO WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WILL BE
ON THE MILD SIDE AGAIN WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 50S.
LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S.

STILL NOT A CLEAR CUT SITUATION AHEAD, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR A
HEAVY SNOW IS GONE WITH THE LOW PRESSURES REMAINING OVER THE ATLANTIC,

BUT WE ARE STILL IN FOR SOME SNOW. WHAT WE`RE LEFT WITH IS ACCUMULATIONS
ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, BUT THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WIND
AND COLD FOLLOWING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR TODAY, THE WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BUT SPEEDS
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE A
SOUTHWEST WIND UNTIL THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 MPH. WE COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WITH
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH THE AXIS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
DELAWARE VALLEY WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY BY DAYBREAK. THERE IS A SHARP
THERMAL BOUNDARY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE LOWER LEVELS SO IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE SNOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --"


Hundreds line up for Ike housing assistance
Many still in need 4 months after devastating hurricane

By JENNIFER LEAHY
Copyright 2009 Houston Chronicle Link
Jan. 31, 2009, 8:53PM
IKE: that does not address the NYC area and area's like eastern LI and the cape....mt. holly is not a coastal location!!!!...the further east,the better the chance of heavy snow.....IMO
50. P451
Quoting stillwaiting:
IKE: that does not address the NYC area and area's like eastern LI and the cape....mt. holly is not a coastal location!!!!...the further east,the better the chance of heavy snow.....IMO


Mount Holly discussions cover all of Sourthern and Central NJ right to the coastline. (I live in Central NJ nearer to the coast so I just know this by experience)

This is the NYC Region:

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NY...NORTHEASTERN NJ AND
SOUTHERN CT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
447 AM EST MON FEB 2 2009

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION AND STALL TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE WELL
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND LOWER TO MID 40S
NEAR THE COAST.

ANY LIGHT RAIN OR WINTRY MIX WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF
STATES IS EXPECTED MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SNOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY TUESDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT.

VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE BRISK WIND
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
51. IKE
Update from Taunton, Massachusetts....

"OUR INITIAL ESTIMATE ON SNOW ACCUMULATION IS AN INCH OR LESS
TONIGHT...MAINLY INTERIOR. THEN 1-4" FOR MUCH OF SNE ON TUE.
ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL QPF SPREAD. IT COULD END UP LESS.


NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING TUE ALONG THE COAST AS LOW
DEEPENS. GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH EXPECTED WITH UP TO 40 MPH
CAPE/ISLANDS."
52. P451
The NYC Storm Discussion:

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF STATES GRADUALLY
MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLC COAST TONIGHT. THIS
LOW DEEPENS AS ONE WOULD EXPECT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH OVER WARMER
WATERS. ONCE AGAIN...ALL OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. THIS LOW MOVES
JUST EAST OF THE BENCHMARK TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INVERTED
TROUGH LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...FROM EAST TO WEST LATE
IN THE DAY. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ALONG WITH APPROACH OF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOC VORT RESULTS IN INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...WITH HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
OCCURRING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CAT POPS EAST TO
LIKELY WEST. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS...EXPECT 2 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE
WEST (COMBINATION OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH H8 HPA FRONT AND
ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW)...WITH AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES
EAST BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
keep in mind ike,that 50-100 miles makes all the difference between a dusting and a ft+,with these coastal snowstorms!!!!,I grew up in SECT and have had more than a few suprise snowstorms!!!!!
possible severe storms forming 10-15 miles offshore SRQ,FL...a marine warning may be needed w/winds over 40mph......should arrive along coastal locations in SRQ/BRD between 12:15pm EST and 12:45pm EST,with gusty winds,lightning and torrental rains....a flood watch could be possible in the tampa bay area with a isolated amount of 3-4 inches of rain in the next 6-8 hrs.......
my area is sure in for some strong weather this afternoon,I can here thunder and its been windy all morning w/wind out of the SSW at 20mph..
NWS RUSKIN:

... A slight risk for severe weather across west central and southwest
Florida this afternoon and early tonight...

A developing low pressure area over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late
this morning will move east across the south central Florida Peninsula
later this afternoon and early tonight. Ahead of this low a large area
of rain with embedded thunderstorms will affect the region. At the present
time indications are that scattered thunderstorms now ongoing over the
adjacent Gulf waters may intensify some as they move east and spread
across the region during the late afternoon and evening hours. Increasing
wind shear in the lower and mid level of the atmosphere may support
the development of a few strong to severe storms with the risk of damaging
winds and or isolated tornadoes.

Residents and visitors of west central and southwest Florida should
remain alert for rapidly changing weather conditions through the afternoon
and early evening hours. If threatening weather approaches your location
move indoors immediately.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for further
updates and or warnings.
57. P451
Quoting stillwaiting:
keep in mind ike,that 50-100 miles makes all the difference between a dusting and a ft+,with these coastal snowstorms!!!!,I grew up in SECT and have had more than a few suprise snowstorms!!!!!


True, and it not only has happened before, but at least once a season where I live here in CNJ there's one surprise storm. Maybe this is the one.

All the models have trended far off the coast though and taken all the QPF with it. Yet if it were to be 100 miles west of where they want it to be we would indeed be in the 6-12 inch category.

12Z CMC

12Z GFS

0Z NGP

6Z UKM

They all have very similar appearanaces. They all give that little westward intrusion bending over NJ I guess in relation to the upper low that is supposed to be somewhere in the OH valley by the time the storm moves past.
58. P451
The first Winter WX Advisories have been posted in relation to this storm.

http://www.uswx.com/us/wx/

All in the Appalachians for now. If they thought there was even a chance of a major coastal event we'd have Winter Storm Watches up by now. Something tells me we won't have anything until later this afternoon and those would likely just be Winter Weather Advisory for say DE, PA, NJ, SeNY for now.
59. P451
Snow at Stonehenge

Link
flood watch maybe needed in the SWFL area......
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number THREE
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 08-20082009
16:00 PM Réunion February 2 2009
==================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 08R (1003 hPa) located at 16.1S 67.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 30 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west-southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.8S 65.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 17.7S 64.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 18.5S 60.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
72 HRS: 18.7S 56.4E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
System is sheared with an ill-defined low level circulation center east of the main convection (CF TRMM at 9:53z). Environmental condition were stationary during the last hours with a weak to moderate vertical wind shear and the low level only fed by the monsoon flow.

During the next 24-36 hours, the system will move towards west-southwest in relation with a weakness of the upper level ridge. It should move west beyond with the increasing of high pressure in the south. The low level inflow is better poleward after tomorrow evening thanks to the increasing gradient with the subtroical high pressure. In the upper levels, wind shear will decrease but only one outflow will settle in the next 36 to 48 hours.

Intensification rate is slow for the next 48 hours and then a climatological rate.

INTEREST IN THE MASCAREGNAS ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Proof that the models were wrong on there position of the low.. Also the radar is a bit north and looks more aggressive then what the models showed. Not calling off the out to sea solution, but if the low formed NNW of the forecasted positions, it's possible that the actual low might track a tad west then what is forecasted now. One more thing to add is that the warm front was supposed to be under us here in Palm Coast, but temps are at 68 degrees instead of the forecasted temperature of 64 which proves that the storm is north and the warm front is north as well. I also see a nice rain band with embedded strong storms heading eastward.

Photobucket
61. HadesGodWyvern
Having to stretch my geographical knowledge (sad to say, but I admit it) - These are the islands east of Madagascar? Wondering if this will put Madagascar in hazards way.
I'm getting rain today:) Slight risk of severe weather..

KEH should win a brownie:).. Ya'll freaked by the Groundhog Oscillation..lol the joke couldn't have been more clearly marked..I see how ya'll check sources now:P

We heard about this from the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting last month~ The NOAA study about air pollution raising the Artic temp by ~3ºC. One quick way to slow this melting down a little is end the black soot & some other key pollutents sent up to gather in the dark til winter & ends & the sun comes up, triggering all sorts of reactions, since these are short lived in sunshine (unlike CO2 & greenhouse gases). This went into way better detail then what we saw before about the when & whys of the reactions & feedbacks.
island east of Madagascar..

Rodriques
St Brandon
Mauritius
Réunion

---
might not track all the way to Madagascar if the system becomes a "hurricane"
Thanks Skyepony - any form of chocolate will do - ahhh.. endorphins

Thanks HadesGodWyvern - Your posts do keep me on my toes - geographically challenged, ya know.


CMC has "Gael", to be, a strong system.
Here's a non self updating shot. Really coming together since yesterday.~ We could use a floater here..

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
CMC has "Gael", to be, a strong system.

LOL
We should come up with a new naming system
'Gael Storm'...works... sort of has a ring about it.
Always thought that Fay should have been 'Fey'
Maybe these storms should have to earn their names... yea...
Heaviest snow in 20 years brings large parts of Britain to a halt

GW, or the start of an Ice Age

OK, KEH, you can have your stir stick back now.
AXIO20 FIMP 021200
MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
SATELLITE TROPICAL CYLONE ANALYSIS .
1 . A SATELLITE : METEOSAT 07
2. A ORBIT NUMBER : GEOSTATIONARY
3. A ORBIT DATE/TIME : 02/02/09 @ 1200 UTC
0. B CYCLONE SERIAL NUMBER : 08
1. B CYCLONE NAME : TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2. B LATITUDE : 16.0 SOUTH
3. B LONGITUDE : 67.4 EAST
4. B DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE : GOOD
5. B T. NUMBER / C.I NUMBER : 2.5 / 2.5 / D0.5/24HRS
6. B MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY 07KT
7. B OTHER INFORMATION : NIL
T.O.O : 02/1200 UTC=
END=

---
Skye no floater..? it should have one by now if the T number is 2.5.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FOUR
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 08-20082009
22:00 PM Réunion February 2 2009
==================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 08R (1000 hPa) located at 16.3S 66.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west-southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 17.1S 64.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 17.6S 62.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 18.1S 58.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.4S 54.7E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
========================
System is sheared with an ill-defined low level circulation center east of the main convection (CF TRMM at 9:53z). Environmental condition were stationary during the last hours with a weak to moderate vertical wind shear and the low level only fed by the monsoon flow.

During the next 24-36 hours, the system will move towards west-southwest in relation with a weakness of the upper level ridge. It should move west beyond with the increasing of high pressure in the south. The low level inflow is better poleward after tomorrow evening thanks to the increasing gradient with the subtroical high pressure. In the upper levels, wind shear will decrease but only one outflow will settle in the next 36 to 48 hours.

Intensification rate is slow for the next 48 hours and then a climatological rate.

INTEREST IN THE MASCAREGNAS ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Heaviest snow in 20 years brings large parts of Britain to a halt

GW, or the start of an Ice Age

OK, KEH, you can have your stir stick back now.

stir,stir, stir
think, think, think,
stir, stir, stir,
drink, drink, drink,

Ok..the question is (Cotillion, maybe you can fend this one). What were all those Brits been doing 20 years ago, that they are doing today!
Look, I am one of the most nurturing people around here...... but I'm gonna shake some sense into that Groundhog -- could someone please schedule a do over -- Phil, the rodent got it wrong!!!
Quoting stillwaiting:
flood watch maybe needed in the SWFL area......


Not what I want to hear as I set out to east of I75 to the polo barns.. Gonna be a mud festival at work today....... a mother's love knows no bounds LOL... No riding today -- but we still have to tend to the lame mare, check on their raincoat blankets and other assorted get wet and muddy tasks....

Not complaining though -- SWFL was a tinderbox --least now the Polo fields and pastures are getting a soaking.... me too in a bit.
Quoting vortfix:
Look, if this NOAA study is correct it should have permanently ended all discussion about you know what!


New Study Shows Climate Change Largely Irreversible
January 26, 2009

A new scientific study led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reaches a powerful conclusion about the climate change caused by future increases of carbon dioxide: to a large extent, there's no going back.

The pioneering study, led by NOAA senior scientist Susan Solomon, shows how changes in surface temperature, rainfall, and sea level are largely irreversible for more than 1,000 years after carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are completely stopped. The findings appear during the week of January 26 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Link


Just curious.

Isn't it impossible to completely stop CO2 emissions?

Doesn't the mere act of living cause CO2 emissions?

How large does global population have to become before the CO2 emissions from being alive and the food being cooked and the food being grown all add up to make this global warming issue moot?

How about cooking the food that we all must eat to live...or do they want us to eat it raw?

How do we farm? Do we go back to animals?

How about all the animals most of us eat..or do we all go vegetarian?

I must commend NOAA for telling it like it probably really is when it comes to AGW and CO2 emissions.

Lets stop pollution. Lets find new and better ways to conserve.

AGW is dead. May it rest in peace.

Quoting surfmom:


Not what I want to hear as I set out to east of I75 to the polo barns.. Gonna be a mud festival at work today....... a mother's love knows no bounds LOL... No riding today -- but we still have to tend to the lame mare, check on their raincoat blankets and other assorted get wet and muddy tasks....

Not complaining though -- SWFL was a tinderbox --least now the Polo fields and pastures are getting a soaking.... me too in a bit.


It could come down as snow :)
surfmom~someone already did the deed.. Groundhogs disagree.. Never mind the one that agrees with you is dead & stuffed, there's hope!
Wherdahecawee Indian Weather Station
Assistant Chief Fuji Whara

RE:
Groundhog Weather Model

Paleface analysis = 39% accuracy

Conclusion;
Paleface read backwards


forecaster Fuji


RE: Post 70 Orca
Heaviest snow in 20 years brings large parts of Britain to a halt
GW, or the start of an Ice Age


One only needs to find the link between what man has done, and the weather.
I searched, and searched for human activity that was present 20 years ago -- and today.

I found this:
1989 prices for a pint
Jan 3 2009 by Val Woan, Liverpool Echo

PUB chain JD Wetherspoon is to slash prices on some drinks and food, offering a pint of beer for less than £1, down to 1989 prices.

The company, which operates 713 pubs across the UK, said the price reductions on some beer, bottled lager, wine and spirits would run “indefinitely”.

A number of meals will also be offered at £2.99, said the firm, which opened 20 new pubs in the past few months of 2008, creating hundreds of new jobs, despite the economic downturn.


Gives a new meaning to a nice cold one, I think

Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE: Post 70 Orca
Heaviest snow in 20 years brings large parts of Britain to a halt
GW, or the start of an Ice Age


One only needs to find the link between what man has done, and the weather.
I searched, and searched for human activity that was present 20 years ago -- and today.

I found this:
1989 prices for a pint
Jan 3 2009 by Val Woan, Liverpool Echo

PUB chain JD Wetherspoon is to slash prices on some drinks and food, offering a pint of beer for less than £1, down to 1989 prices.

The company, which operates 713 pubs across the UK, said the price reductions on some beer, bottled lager, wine and spirits would run “indefinitely”.

A number of meals will also be offered at £2.99, said the firm, which opened 20 new pubs in the past few months of 2008, creating hundreds of new jobs, despite the economic downturn.


Gives a new meaning to a nice cold one, I think



I knew your response would be different and may involve alcohol after this reply;

stir,stir, stir
think, think, think,
stir, stir, stir,
drink, drink, drink,

Happy Birthday RTLSNK & SB :)
Husband and Wife celebrating a birthday together today :)

ground hog sees shadow,six more weeks of sleep.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
85. bwi
Pressure down 4mb over two-ish hours in NE gulf...
ESL by LSU Link

good to hear from you surfmom,I saw you running on the key yesterday....can't miss the always present "yellow hat"..lol.....its darn windy today to go along w/the rain,its like a "south-wester",lol...
Good afternoon all! Just thought I'd drop by and see if anyone was in here. With as cold as it has gotten here in NW Fl. this, I have to say that I do not see any signs of global warming. LOL
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer Link


Marine Observing Systems Team Link

The MOST applies remotely-sensed data received from operational and research satellites and other platforms ranging from microwave to ultra-violet frequencies to infer thermal distributions; bio-optical properties; surface winds and associated wave structure; ice sheet topography; ocean currents, fronts and eddies. This branch also conducts field experiments to assemble comparative data to validate the satellite measurements. It cooperates with other parts of NOAA to develop applications of satellite-derived ocean properties to physical and biological models, models of ocean circulation, and fisheries resources.
Like we really needed the groundhog to tell us that we are in for more winter conditions????
LOL
2009 Atlantic Hurricane Names

Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

Experience shows that the use of short, distinctive given names in written as well as spoken communications is quicker and less subject to error than the older more cumbersome latitude-longitude identification methods. These advantages are especially important in exchanging detailed storm information between hundreds of widely scattered stations, coastal bases, and ships at sea.

Since 1953, Atlantic tropical storms have been named from lists originated by the National Hurricane Center. They are now maintained and updated by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization. The original name lists featured only women's names. In 1979, men's names were introduced and they alternate with the women's names. Six lists are used in rotation. Thus, the 2008 list will be used again in 2014. Here is more information about the history of naming hurricanes. Link


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST MON FEB 02 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021945Z - 022145Z

AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH FL...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. WILL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.

AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE EAST CENTRAL GULF PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS/SATELLITE IMAGERY
IMPLIES A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF ABOUT 100-125 MILES OFF
THE CENTRAL FL COAST...WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT
SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE KEYS/SOUTHWEST FL. EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT HAS SLOWLY MIXED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTH FL PENINSULA SINCE THIS MORNING...WITH WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS
HAVING INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 60S F IN MOST LOCALES. AHEAD OF THE
OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW...DEEPENING CU FIELD IS NOW
EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FL COAST.

AS MODEST DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT...STRENGTHENING LOW
TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WOULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. ASIDE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...THIS
INCLUDES SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SRH /150-200 M2 PER S2 0-1 KM/ FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO VEER
WITH TIME. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN REGARDING TSTM VIGOR IS
THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE/BUOYANCY...WITH MODIFIED 12Z
RAOBS/RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTIVE OF SBCAPE OF 500 J/KG OR LESS. AS
SUCH...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE/ORGANIZED THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.

..GUYER.. 02/02/2009
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EST SUN 01 FEB 2009
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z FEB 2009
WSPOD NUMBER.....08-063

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. A63/ CARPS (30.4N 77.8W)/ 03/0000Z
B. AFXXX 03WSA TRACK63
C. 02/1715Z
D. 4 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK PLUS
CARPS FOR A TOTAL OF 5
E. 30,000 FT/ 03/0200Z

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. A61/ CROAK (37.0N 73.0W)/ 03/1200Z
B. AFXXXX 04WSA TRACK61
C. 03/0630Z
D. 4 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK PLUS
CHAMP FOR A TOTAL OF 5
E. 30,000 FT/ 03/1400Z

NOTE: THE TASKING FOR TRACK A63, CONTROL TIME
02/1200Z FROM YESTERDAY'S WSPOD WILL DEPART TONIGHT.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL FLIGHT FROM
KTCM/ 03/1200Z / TRACK NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME
WVW
That should help out the models a bit..
Dang the atlantic flights are cancelled Pacific is on tonight..

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EST MON 02 FEB 2009
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z FEB 2009
WSPOD NUMBER.....08-064

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: THE 3 MISSIONS ON A DEVELOPING ATLANTIC
SYSTEM ALL CANCELED BY NCEP BY O2/1325Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. P1/ 39.5N 144.7W/ 03/1200Z
B. AF301 09WSC TRACK1
C. 03/0700Z
D. DROPS EVERY 20 MINTUES ON TRACK WEST OF 135W
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 03/1800Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PROBABLE TRACK
WITH A 04/0500Z TAKEOFF.
JWP


wow i cant belive it there could be freeze watch because they expect 32 for south fla
As always if things hold together we should be in for an interesting night here across southeast florida.

91. Patrap

I don't like the sound of Fred. Something about four-letter male names.
97. Wheee!
KBDI will look different tomorrow.
WhooHoo
With the falling Baro & Broken clouds = rapidly changing light conditions, Bert the Bass, & 4 of his buddies said yesterday winter is over - they couldn't wait to get in the boat.
at this point i'm less worried about the systems track but more worried about the temperatures its about 57 where im at dont see much chance for it to cool down enough to get some decent snow out of this storm.
Quoting captainhunter:
91. Patrap

I don't like the sound of Fred. Something about four-letter male names.


He might try to top what his wife Wilma did...
ONLY six more weeks of winter? That would be pretty soon, for us here in Maine.
You Northerns can go by the forecast of Phil, but for us southerns, we'll stick with Gen Beauregard Lees' prediction for an early spring.After the winter everyone has had it sounds so much better.
well, my class justed finished watching, " An Inconvenient Truth", and i was wondering what your guys' take on it was...thanks
STLouiskid~ Been a few years since I saw it. Think it would have been better had Gore not been in the film. Part of it seemed devoted to his future political adjenda. Parts were pretty boring. Kinda put a very democratic spin in the issue worse than before.. seemed to make some "older" republicans very sceptical of the new light bulbs, know some to this day that won't use them & will go on about Gore if they are mentioned. It was a poor way to approach a demagraphic that needed reached the most. And it's getting out of date. NW passage opened way sooner than proclamed along with some other projections. Dr Master's & I think his daughter did a blog review on it when it 1st came out. If I remember right~ she was pretty bored by it.
hmm you don't like Fred.. how about Freddy, the next name you'll see on this board when Australia has another cyclone. (possibly in the next few days).

1..2 Freddy's coming for you.. =P

oh sorry I'm being random now.
Thanks Skyepony
Watching the storm line w/ key west radar.

Does anyone know what a storm that has a big yellow square iso the standard black square mean? TIA
Never mind. There were no storms listed at the bottom, so didn't have the legend. It's hail.
Quoting Seastep:
Watching the storm line w/ key west radar.

Does anyone know what a storm that has a big yellow square iso the standard black square mean? TIA




NEXRAD Radar
Key West, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link


5 Doppler Radar Detected Storms


ID Max Top VIL Severe Hail Hail Max Hail Size Speed Direction (from)
2 Q0 70 dBZ 20,000 ft. 41 kg/m 50% chance 60% chance 1.00 in. 21 knots WSW
Figured it out, but thanks anyway, patrap. Appreciated.
Anytime..

Looks squally down there
Tornado vortex just NW of key west moving towards miami.

It could get nasty in SE FL.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings Link
NEXRAD Radar
Key West, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI Link
HI all, I thought this site may be of interest to some of you. Operational Significant Event Imagery from NOAA. Be well.
Link

Any of you GFS gurus in here know what I should consider the time-averaging for GFS wind data? Got any documentation? (could not find it...)

I need to compare GFS 0-hour nowcasts to buoy data (8-minute average) from last hurricane season. Need to see if the GFS nowcast is up to muster.
Wind picking up and sky is getting ominous here in broward.

Time to head out and try to beat the storms home.
Is it gonna be bad in south florida later? Could someone please ease my fears.
Quoting IKE:


And then another blog on it on Tuesday or Wednesday...

"More on climate change in my next post on Tuesday or Wednesday, when I'll look at claims that the Earth has been cooling since 1998.

Jeff Masters"........

I'm sure your next blog entry will warm up the planet with the arguing that goes on in here over it.

Hurricane season can't start soon enough.....

118+ days and it's here....


Jesus, already? It just felt like a few days ago it was 180+ Days. Before you know it, Tropical Storm Ana will be ringing the bells in May/June.
Quoting Skyepony:
STLouiskid~ Been a few years since I saw it. Think it would have been better had Gore not been in the film. Part of it seemed devoted to his future political adjenda. Parts were pretty boring. Kinda put a very democratic spin in the issue worse than before.. seemed to make some "older" republicans very sceptical of the new light bulbs, know some to this day that won't use them & will go on about Gore if they are mentioned. It was a poor way to approach a demagraphic that needed reached the most. And it's getting out of date. NW passage opened way sooner than proclamed along with some other projections. Dr Master's & I think his daughter did a blog review on it when it 1st came out. If I remember right~ she was pretty bored by it.

Nice job.


Wow I thougt that Hurricanes and Earthquake are the worst that mother nature can give to us, but the winter's storms are even more dangerous.

When the Hurricane pre-season stars?


..another Climate Change entry!

Darn!
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FIVE
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 08-20082009
4:00 AM Réunion February 3 2009
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 16.5S 65.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near Gale-Force Winds
======================
20 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the northern semi-circle... reaching locally 35kts in the northern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 17.1S 64.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 17.5S 62.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 17.8S 57.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.0S 54.1E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
========================
System is sheared with an low level circulation located east of the main convection. Environmental conditions were stationary during the last hours with a weak to moderate vertical wind shear and the low level only fed mainly by the monsoon flow.

The system will move towards west-southwest in relation with a weakeness of the upper level ridge. Up to 24 hours, it should move west beyond with the increasing of high pressure in the south.

The low level inflow is better poleward after tomorrow evening thanks to the increasing gradient with the subtropical high pressure. In the upper levels, wind shear will decrease but only one outflow will settle in the next 36-48 hours.

Intensification rate is slow for the next 36 hours and then at a climatological rate.

INTEREST IN THE MASCAREGNAS ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-F
9:00 AM FST February 3 2009
==================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (999 hPa) located at 13.0S 161.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20-25 knots about 120 miles from the center. The depression is reported as slow moving. Position POOR based on multispectral/visible with animation, latest Quikscat Pass, and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperatures is around 31C.

Difficult to discern low level circulation center, Quikscat suggests elongated trough at this stage. Strong shear exists over the system with deep convection displaced to the north. The 250 HPA subtropical ridge to the south is moving north and will increase upper diffluence in the area. CIMMS indicates decreasing shear along 09F expected southerly movement. Surge from the south, northeast, and northwest has started feeding into the system. Recent satellite images indicate dry air to the south, which is likely to hold off development in the short term. Global models has captured TD NINE and moves it south or southeast with some intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW AND MODERATE THERE AFTER.
Quoting stillwaiting:
good to hear from you surfmom,I saw you running on the key yesterday....can't miss the always present "yellow hat"..lol.....its darn windy today to go along w/the rain,its like a "south-wester",lol...
Glad to hear I was running... when people say jogging I get bummed, means I wasn't moving fast enough -- Cool temps. made for a fast run yesterday -- listening to The Boss helped a lot too!
Quoting surfmom:
Glad to hear I was running... when people say jogging I get bummed, means I wasn't moving fast enough -- Cool temps. made for a fast run yesterday -- listening to The Boss helped a lot too!
Surfmom, so agree with the jogging versus running - irritates me too. Knowing you, you must be so sick of this cold weather.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Jesus, already? It just felt like a few days ago it was 180+ Days. Before you know it, Tropical Storm Ana will be ringing the bells in May/June.
ya wont be long but first we got to get over pre-season predictions then our normal troll run just before the official start of things

in 49 days it will be the first day of spring and we will be starting to take a peek to see how things are setting up
i think starting tuseday or wedenday iam gonna take a mid winter nap for the next 6 weeks
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i think starting tuseday or wedenday iam gonna take a mid winter nap for the next 6 weeks

So we have no need to worry about snow, if you are napping - right?
Doesn't really matter what Phil says in Michigan unfortunately we have winter until March or April regardless...
Honestly don't think it matters...either way, there is still 6 more weeks of winter.

Might be better if that groundhog could tell us whether we were gonna get much more snow. Don't know where we're gonna put it all.
I looking forward to see what storms retire
good night
US winter to linger, groundhog declares
Tuesday February 3, 2009


America's most famous groundhog has declared that the country will have six more weeks of winter.

Punxsutawney Phil, the latest in a line of rodents that have been "prognosticating" on the length of winter for 123 years, saw his shadow in the morning, considered an omen of how long winter will last.

In keeping with tradition in this western Pennsylvania town, the groundhog ceremonially emerged from his "burrow," actually a box set into a tree stump, and communicated his prediction to Bill Cooper, a top-hatted town elder who claims to be the only person in the world to speak "Groundhogese."

The event, based on the festival of Candlemas, was made famous by the 1993 movie Groundhog Day starring Bill Murray, which was based in Punxsutawney.

Town leaders spend about $30,000 on Groundhog Day each year, hoping to maintain Phil's status as the benchmark groundhog forecaster.

Jeff Grube, one of the organisers, said Groundhog Day helps distract him from concerns about his industrial coatings business in the recession and financial crisis.

"People are in a good mood," he said. "It's just good fun."

Hugh and Marirose Dirstine came from Los Angeles to celebrate their 35th wedding anniversary on their first trip to Groundhog Day, saying they were inspired by the movie.

"It's just part of America," said Marirose, a teacher.

In New York City, another groundhog called Staten Island Chuck failed to see his shadow when he was lured from his cage by Mayor Michael Bloomberg, predicting that spring was near.

Two Canadian groundhogs, Wiarton Willie in Ontario and Shubenacadie Sam in Nova Scotia, saw their shadows to forecast a lingering winter.

Authorities in Punxsutawney say Phil is always correct but, according to the US National Climate Prediction Centre, he and his fellow groundhogs get it right about 39 per cent of the time.

Organisers estimated 13,000 people, some from Japan, Iceland and Egypt, witnessed Phil do his thing in temperatures around freezing.

The crowd was entertained from 3:00am (local time) by dancing girls and top-hatted moderators who introduced special guests.

The highlights included Jason Balsan, a New York City police officer, getting down on one knee and proposing on stage to his girlfriend Katie Slattery. She said yes.

Sheldon Carr, an engineer from Newburg, Wisconsin, was unable to explain the appeal of Groundhog Day, especially to non-Americans.

"There's no reason," he said.

"No one understands the Yanks."

As the crowd dispersed to the sounds of Bobby McFerrin's Don't Worry, Be Happy, Mr Cooper told the people, "There are a lot of serious and important things in life, and Groundhog Day isn't one of them."

-Reuters

Weather extremes a taste of the future: expert
Tuesday February 3, 2009

A climate change expert is tipping the extreme weather conditions experienced in Tasmania last month to become more routine.

The record for Tasmania's hottest day was broken twice, with Flinders Island reaching 41 degrees on January 29th and Scamander 42 degrees the next day.

The record for Tasmania's coldest January day was also broken, with Mt Wellington only reaching two degrees on the 16th.

A climate change expert from the University of Tasmania, Dr Kate Crowley, says it is very concerning.

"Shifting weather patterns cause shifting eco-systems so I guess that means areas that are dry are becoming wet, areas that are wet are becoming dry, areas that are prone to bushfire are going to be prone to catastrophic bushfire," he said.

"So it really is of concern."

- ABC

AussieStorm: Is Dr Kate Crowley saying that the desert area in the middle of Oz going to become a rainforest? I think not lol
Floodwaters swamp north Qld
Tuesday February 3, 2009

ABC image
Floodwaters pour down the Leichhardt River and over a road crossing in Mount Isa. - ABC

There has been no let-up in north Queensland with floodwaters continuing to rise and homes being evacuated in the aftermath of ex-tropical cyclone Ellie.

Almost 420 millimetres of rain has fallen at Ingham in the past two days, isolating the community.

Heavy falls continue with the weather bureau forecasting more rain.

The Herbert River through Ingham peaked overnight with more than a dozen homes now flooded and another 400 with water underneath them.

The State Emergency Service (SES) will use boats to access the worst affected areas this morning to check on residents.

Queensland Emergency Services Minister Neil Roberts says it is the third highest flood in Ingham's history.

"The Herbert River peaked at around 3am at 12.2 metres," he said.

"In practical terms that meant around 200 homes had external inundation and unfortunately around 10 homes had one to two metres go right through them, so it's been quite devastating for those families."

Hinchinbrook Mayor Pino Giandominico says the scale of the flood has caught newcomers by surprise.

"The floods we have been having were only baby floods, so when we get a good one people are going to get a shock because a lot of people around the district, especially newcomers, thought they were in a flood-free area," he said.

Councillor Giandominico says there have been some evacuations of elderly residents.

"We have asked people to move out before the event but as always you get people who want to stay," he said.

Weather bureau hydrologist Jeff Perkins says water levels will stay high for most of the day.

"The Herbert flood river levels have basically peaked at major flood level and they've remained steady since midnight and they'll remain high during today and fall tonight and into tomorrow," he said.

District disaster coordinator Superintendent Noel Powers says the emergency response has been professional.

"The biggest problem is just going to be monitoring where the roads are going to be shut and responding to any calls for assistance," he said.

To the south of Townsville, Giru is surrounded by floodwaters as the Haughton and Burdekin rivers continue to rise.

The Bruce Highway is closed in several places.

A motorist ran over a crocodile in Townsville as floodwaters create dangerous road conditions.

Townsville Mayor Les Tyrell says wildlife officers removed the crocodile from Ross River Road at about 3am AEST.

He says road conditions are hazardous.

"Our blokes are putting signage up at various places," he said.

"We do have some issue overflow of sewerage pump stations I understand around the north ward area."

Queensland Trucking Association spokesman Peter Garske says there are more than 50 B-doubles stranded by floodwaters in the state's north.

"The cost down the line - not only to the trucking operator - but to the consumer through increased products when supplies run short, hundreds of millions of dollars would not take long for a good economist to sum up in terms of the impact," he said.

Burdekin Mayor Lyn McLaughlin says the flood is being closely monitored.

"At that level, there's no water in the houses but we don't know what's going to happen for the rest of the day," she said.

Further west, new flooding records have been set in the Gulf country, with water still rising in some areas and forcing the evacuation of more properties.

Carpentaria Shire Council acting Mayor Joyce Zahner says the river is expected to peak tomorrow

"We've had some evacuations from Normanton, we've relocated both persons and property to higher accommodation in Normanton," she said.

"We've had five isolated stations evacuated.

"There are numerous other stations around the area that have water inundation through their houses and we are keeping a very close eye on all of this."

Kylie Camp from Floraville Station, south-east of Burketown, says they have recorded more than a metre of rain so far this wet season.

She says they have never seen such flooding in the Leichhardt River.

"Previously the flooding after cyclone Larry was our highest known flooding event here and we've probably exceeded that by at least a foot and it is still rising," she said.

"The only land left is the cement pad around our house and two metres squared around our jackeroos quarters.

"Our air strip is totally under water [and] in all our low-lying buildings and sheds."

Federal Member for Kennedy Bob Katter says the Army should be on stand-by to help flood-affected communities in the Gulf.

He says Karumba is cut off.

"The barge is 10 days round trip. The fruit and vegetables are bad by the time they get from Cairns down to Karumba," he said.

"But one case there was a two-month-old child had to be bought back in a tinnie through crocodile-infested major floodwaters some 70 kilometres from Normanton to Karumba."

Weather bureau spokeswoman Alicia Duncanson says a second low pressure system could develop in the Coral Sea by Thursday bringing more rain.

"Somewhere either due east of Cairns or Innisfail and we think we've got a pretty good idea of where it's going to be," she said.

"But you know what these things are like, it could be a lot further out or a lot closer in."

Meanwhile, the wettest place in the state in January was Paluma Ivy Cottage, north-west of Townsville.

Weather bureau manager of climate services Jeff Sabburg says it is more than double the average January rainfall but not a record.

"The record that I can see for January was in 1981 of 1,417, so it's not actually a record," he said.

He says more than 880 millimetres of rain fell on Cairns last month.

Despite periods of heavy rain, the weather bureau says the Mackay region fell short of the long-term January average.

The Mount Bassett weather station recorded 265 millimetres, just short of the average of 277.9 millimetres.

Mr Sabburg says it is unlikely that above average rainfall will be recorded in coming months.

"What's going on with the monthly rainfall at the moment, it's not a good indicator of what's likely to come in the next few months, at this time of year," he said.

"So we're having good rain in some parts of the state, but it may be not quite so good in the coming months, particularly after March."


- ABC
139. beell
Thanks for the annual groundhog report and the MP link Doc!

Quoting beell:
Thanks for the annual groundhog report and the MP link!

lol
141. beell
Last one-i promise!

beell....you're a hard man to track down....
OMG Beell. My husbands favorite movies....funny..........funny!
144. beell
Got me cold busted there press (and sj)! I know. I have been ducking. Not sure what I'm ducking but will stop it immediately!

conchy-all I can say is your Husband has a highly refined sense of humor and has chosen his mate well lol

lol down Aussie ways as well!
well beell....Sj is pretty scary....can't blame ya for ducking him...but gimmee a call....I'm harmless....
146. beell
Too many vid flashbacks of SJ eating-scarred and scared...
Will do press. My bad!

Ante Meridian fer sure.
Tropical Cyclone Freddy is set to develop in north west Western Australia off the coast of the Pilburra by the end of this week
that has to be surface low pressure headed towards the bahamas!!!....interesting looking....and surfmom,you were definately running,jogging is what the old timers do,maybe you might start "jogging" in 20years or so though..lol
Evening everyone.

Looks like some nasty weather is building as that low comes out of the Gulf area.



Think I'm gonna find me an extra blanket - temps are supposed to dip to the low 50s here. We haven't been this cold since the late 70s / early 80s . . .
Looks like a low spinning up under Key Largo could that be a depression forming? if so how strong would it get? maybe TS strength?
Quoting G35Wayne:
Looks like a low spinning up under Key Largo could that be a depression forming? if so how strong would it get? maybe TS strength?


O_O please tell me you're joking?
Quoting G35Wayne:
Looks like a low spinning up under Key Largo could that be a depression forming? if so how strong would it get? maybe TS strength?



NO way in that kind of wind shear out there???? wind shear most be 100kt right now or higher
Quoting HurricaneKing:


O_O please tell me you're joking?




he was jokeing we wont see any TD or TS in tell june or july
154. P451
Well, it's not surprising, the QPF ratcheted back up with the new run...



Not impressive, not a blizzard by any means, but enough to spawn this new forecast for my area.

TUESDAY
SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE
OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE EVENING. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOWS AROUND 17. NORTH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
60 PERCENT.

We're only under an advisory which doesn't jive with the 3-5 (they usually put us under a winter storm warning for that total) yet south of me they have the winter storm watches but only expecting 1-3. So go figure. Regardless our discussion talks about the ramping up of the QPF and even hints that it may be more come tomorrow.

Fingers crossed! I'd like at least a decent snowfall. Most we had all year so far was the last one - 4 inches and then rain which wiped it all out by evening.

Meanwhile, the front moved through, but the precip with it has stayed north and west far longer than ever anticipated and it's really moving slow. Seems like a southern draw of moisture from the Carolinas is beating it to the punch. I wonder if this means the coastal low will be a lot closer to the coast when all is said and done. That front and it's precip was supposed to already be through my area and it's just stalling to the west.

We'll see. Interesting to say the least.
One of the least understood phenomenon that follow weather disasters of this type is the retreat of insurance companies. A few years back my area had a couple bad years. A big hail storm decimated roofs and siding one year. Then an ice-storm and some wind to remove what the hail left behind.

Shortly thereafter the insurance companies decided this area had become high risk and stopped writing policies making home insurance hard to obtain.

Unlike tornadoes and hurricanes that can be expected to repeat similar levels of damage each time they pass through an area, hail, wind and ice tend to cull out the "bad apples" in terms of structures, power lines and such.

Since Kentucky has had many of its weak trees, power lines and such destroyed by the ice the state should far better in a similar storm next time around for at least five or ten years.

Odds are the insurance companies will treat Kentucky the same as here in the days to come and look at past loss to establish future predictions. In fact the large number of new roofs and the culling of weak trees will improve the odds for not paying out next time around.
its all about how strong the NC low gets,we'll have a good idea in about 8-12hrs,I'm sticking with my earlier snowfall prediction,as the qpf amounts are begining to reflect....
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number ONE
Tropical Low EIGHT-U
9:50 AM WDT February 3 2009
========================================

At 9:00 AM WDT, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 16.0S 126.0E or 455 kms east northeast of Broome and 200 kms south southwest of Kalumburu has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The low is reported as moving slowly westward.

The low is expected to move off the west Kimberley coast by Wednesday morning and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Thursday as it continues to move west away from the coast. Gales are not expected on the coast during Tuesday or Wednesday but may develop during Thursday.

Cyclone Watch
=================
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Kalumburu to Broome.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SIX
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GAEL (08-20082009)
10:00 AM Réunion February 3 2009
==================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Gael (995 hPa) located at 17.2S 64.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving southwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Near Gale-Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the northern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 18.0S 63.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 18.5S 61.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 18.2S 56.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.6S 53.3E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
========================
System remains sheared and shows a broad vortex, totally exposed on the southeastern edge of the deep convective activity. Low level inflow is rather good on the both edges but intensification remains limited due to the vertical wind shear. This shear is expected to weak beyond 36 hours, but with only one equatorward upper level outflow channel. A second one could appear poleward beyond 72 hours forecast.

INTEREST IN THE MASCAREGNAS ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number TWO
Tropical Low
3:50 PM WDT February 3 2009
========================================

At 3:00 PM WDT, Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 15.7S 125.6E or 440 kms northeast of Broome and 190 kms southwest of Kalumburu has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west-northwest at 5 knots.

The low is expected to move off the west Kimberley coast by Wednesday morning and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Thursday as it continues to move west away from the coast. Gales are not expected on the coast during Tuesday or Wednesday but may develop during Thursday.

Cyclone Watch
=================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Kalumburu to Broome.
FVFE01 RJTD 030743
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20090203/0743Z
VAAC: TOKYO
VOLCANO: SAKURA-JIMA 0802-08
PSN: N3135E13040
AREA: JAPAN
SUMMIT ELEV: 1060M
ADVISORY NR: 2009/12
INFO SOURCE: JMA
AVIATION COLOUR CODE: NIL
ERUPTION DETAILS: EXPLODED AT 20090203/0732Z FL060 EXTD E
OBS VA DTG: NIL
OBS VA CLD: IN INVESTIGATING SATELLITE DATA. WINDS ABV THE VOLCANO
AT
03/0730Z FL060 260/32KT FROM JMA NWP MODEL.
FCST VA CLD +6HR: NIL
FCST VA CLD +12HR: NIL
FCST VA CLD +18HR: NIL
RMK: NIL
NXT ADVISORY: WE WILL ISSUE FURTHER ADVISORY IF VA IS DETECTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY=
At 08:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Nine-F (999 hPa) located at 13.7S 160.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25-30 knots, possibly increasing to 35 knots in the sector 50 to 180 NM of the center in the northeastern semi-circle in the next 18 to 24 hours. Position POOR based on multispectral/infrared with animation, latest Quikscat Pass, and peripheral surface observations.

Low level circulation center is obscured, with some indications of good inflow bands feeding into TD NINE from the north and west. Moderate shear exist over the system with deep convection displaced to the north. The system is located under a 250 HPA diffluence region with an upper outflow to the west. Sea surface temperatures is around 31C. TD NINE is under the influence of a northerly steering and CIMMS indicates decreasing shear along the depression expected southerly movement for awhile. Surge from the south, northeast, and northwest has started feeding into the system. Recent satellite images indicate good.

Global models are moving TD NINE south for some time then southeast thereafter with some intensification.

Dvorak analysis based on curved band patterns Yield..

T2.0/2.0/D1.0/ 24 HRS

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY IS ISSUED AT AROUND 14:30 PM UTC..
That huge GOM super storm you were all was supposed to travel up the east coast well it missed us it went offshore and we got maybe 1/4 of an inch of snow >:( only one good snowfall this winter it's annoying
New Blog!