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Groundhog Says: Early Spring! Plus: a Groundhog Day Tornado Outbreak?

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 5:02 PM GMT on February 02, 2016

In Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, home of the world's most famous prognosticating rodent, Punxsutawney Phil, gloomy clouds prevailed at sunrise on Tuesday morning, preventing Punxsutawney Phil from seeing his shadow. His fearless prognostication for the remainder of winter, as presented as his official groundhog.org web site, looks like this, then:

“Hear Ye, Hear Ye, Hear Ye
Now, this Second Day of February, Two Thousand and Sixteen, the One Hundred and Thirtieth Annual Trek of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club….
Punxsutawney Phil, the Seer of Seers, Prognosticator of All Prognosticators, was awakened from his borrow to the cheers of his thousands of faithful followers….
In Groundhogese, he directed the President and the Inner Circle to the precise prediction Scroll, which translated reads:



The inner circle goes to great ends
 
To keep me abreast of latest trends

Down in my burrow I never get bored
   
Riding on my hover board

And I sure have fun flying my drone
 
But weather forecasting is my comfort zone

Is this current warm weather more than a trend?
   
Per chance this winter has come to an end?

There is no shadow to be cast,
   
An early Spring is my forecast!"



Figure 1. Canada's famous albino groundhog named Wiarton Willy from the town of Wiarton, Ontario. Willie saw his shadow at dawn Tuesday, so his prediction calls for six more weeks of winter. However, Nova Scotia’s Shubenacadie Sam didn’t see his shadow this morning from his little shed at a provincial wildlife park northeast of Halifax, and in New York City, groundhog forecaster Staten Island Chuck also failed to see his shadow, and predicted an early end to winter. Image credit: wunderphotographer pincollector1.

Grading Phil's forecasts
Phil saw his shadow in 2015, predicting six more weeks of winter. While February ended up colder than average over the contiguous U.S. in 2015, March was much warmer than average (the 12th warmest March since 1895), making it difficult to grade Phil's forecast as being successful or a flop. NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) analyzed Punxsutawney Phil’s forecasts between 1988 - 2015 (thanks to Doyle Rice of USA Today for pointing this out.) If we evaluate just the twelve years when the departure of February and March temperatures from average over the contiguous U.S. were both of the same sign, Phil had five correct forecasts and seven blown forecasts. NOAA concluded in last year's version of this analysis that “It really isn't a 'bright' idea to take a measure such as a groundhog's shadow and use it as a predictive meteorological tool for the entire United States.”

How did this this crazy tradition start?
It all started in Europe, centuries ago, when February 2 was a holiday called Candlemas (much like Halloween and May Day, Candlemas is another ancient holiday positioned near the halfway point between solstice and equinox.) On Candlemas, people prayed for mild weather for the remainder of winter. The superstition arose that if a hibernating badger woke up and saw its shadow on Candlemas, there would be six more weeks of severe winter weather. When Europeans settled the New World, they didn't find any badgers. So, instead of building wooden badgers, they decided to use native groundhogs (aka the woodchuck, land beaver, or whistlepig) as their prognosticating rodent.

The Groundhog Oscillation: convincing evidence of climate change!
According to a 2001 article published in the prestigious Annals of Improbable Research, "The Groundhog Oscillation: Evidence of Global Change", Punxsutawney Phil's forecasts have shown a high variability since 1980. This pattern, part of the larger "Groundhog Oscillation" or GO cycle, is convincing evidence of human-caused climate change.


Figure 2. Temperature outlook for February 2016, as predicted by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on January 31, 2016. A continuation of the warm in the north and west, and cool in the south pattern is favored.

What the pros say
The latest 10-day runs of the GFS model and the European model show an outbreak of Arctic air pushing through the Midwest beginning on Monday next week, and bringing much below-average temperatures to large portion of the eastern half of the country during the second week of February. As discussed by Bob Henson in his Monday blog post, this plunge of cold is expected to happen as a consequence of a split of the polar vortex caused by a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. However, NOAA’s experimental 3-4 week temperature forecast for Feb. 13-26 shows no strong indication for either above- or below-normal temperatures east of the Great Plains, so next week's cold blast may be just a one-week affair. The latest seasonal forecast from The Weather Company's Business Solutions group (formerly known as WSI.com) agrees with this idea. Heading into March and April, they predict a classic El Niño pattern of relative warmth across the northern states and cooler than average temperatures across the southern tier of states, with March being more consistently colder than average than February. The latest 3-month forecast for February - April from Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society and from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) show a similar pattern of warmth in the north and coolness in the south. Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has a more detailed analysis of the long-range forecast for February in his Monday afternoon post, Major Snow storm - Severe T-Storms and Pattern Change.


Figure 3. Outlook for severe weather on Tuesday, issued at 10:29 am EST Tuesday, February 2, 2016, by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Not in the groundhog's forecast: Tornado outbreak possible Tuesday PM
A springlike severe weather setup is taking shape for Tuesday afternoon between the Mississippi River and the Appalachians. Gulf moisture is already in place, with dew point temperatures already into the 60s as far north as western Tennessee. Mild, unstable air will continue flowing from the Gulf behind a warm front now lifting northward through Kentucky, while a sharp cold front and upper-level energy approach from the west. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is calling for an enhanced risk of severe weather from Mississippi and Alabama into western Tennessee and Kentucky. As of late Tuesday morning, the areas at greatest threat for discrete supercell storms later Tuesday---perhaps even strong tornadoes--are near the warm/cold front intersection zone, over western TN and KY, and across central and southern MS and AL, especially later in the evening. A weaker round of severe weather is possible Wednesday east of the Appalachians, from the Gulf Coast to the Delmarva.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson


Video 1. Smart groundhogs use WU to improve their prognostications!
Um, um GOOD!
Um, um GOOD!
Our resident groundhog, Hampton Harry just loves tomatoes. He gets any that are past their prime.
My! What large teeth you have!
My!  What large teeth you have!
A close up view of a groundhog enjoying some new spring growth!

Winter Weather Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

DC area groundhogs saw their shadows this morning.

In Canada ONLY six more weeks of winter would be a blessing. I think legend there is eight more weeks.
Your doing it all wrong says da Nutria



Groundhog Day 2016: The tale of the 'Cajun Groundhog'

Groundhogs aren't native to Louisiana, and so -- needless to say -- the observance of Groundhog Day, which is Tuesday (Feb. 2), didn't start anywhere near the Crescent City. Still, given how much this city loves traditions, whether native or otherwise, it was only natural that Groundhog Day would eventually become adopted by locals, who would transform it in their own, distinctly Louisiana way.

In this case, it's a story involving a cross-dressing groundhog, an imposter prairie dog and -- most recently -- a certain Rodent of Unusual Size. Here's the story of Groundhog Day in New Orleans.

Believed to stem from a tradition brought to the New World by German immigrants -- and coinciding with the Catholic observation of Candlemas -- the whole groundhog legend reportedly dates back at least to 1841. According to that legend, of course, if a groundhog -- the most famous being Pennsylvania's Punxsutawney Phil -- awakes from its winter hibernation and doesn't see its shadow upon emerging from its burrow on Feb. 2, it means a timely arrival to spring will follow.

If, on the other hand, said groundhog is spooked by its shadow and returns to its burrow, it portends six more weeks of winter. (See this year's prediction)

Groundhog Day 2016: All you need to know about Punxsutawney Phil
Groundhog Day 2016: All you need to know about Punxsutawney Phil
How old is Punxsutawney Phil? How accurate is he? And what is the groundhog's history? Here's all you ever needed to know about the world's most famous groundhog.

In New Orleans, one of the earliest references to the tradition crops up in The Daily Picayune of Feb. 22, 1883. (Because apparently it took a while to get word of the groundhog's mood from up north to New Orleans.)

more:.....
"..NOAA concluded in last year's version of this analysis that “It really isn't a 'bright' idea to take a measure such as a groundhog's shadow and use it as a predictive meteorological tool for the entire United States.”

Hmmmmmmmm...... so this does leave the door open to using the shadow for localized forecasting I guess??
Sounded cooler when pagans did it:

The serpent will come from the hole
On the brown Day of Bride,
Though there should be three feet of snow
On the flat surface of the ground.
Thanks doks!
http://www.wyoroad.info/highway/conditions/Dist1. html
As of 12:00 A.M., I-80 between Cheyenne and Laramie is projected to be closed for an extended period of time. As of 12:00 A.M., I-80 WESTBOUND between Laramie and Rawlins is projected to be closed for an extended period of time. As of 9:00 A.M.: I-80 between Rawlins and Rock Springs is projected to open within 2 hours. Please be advised: The Summit Rest Area on I-80 between Laramie and Cheyenne at mp 323 is closed indefinitely. Truck parking is being allowed only in the lower parking lot. Wagonhound rest area located on I-80 between Arlington and Elk Mountain at mp 267 is closed until further notice.

Per W.S. 24-1-109, motorists traveling on a closed road without permission from WYDOT or WHP may be subject to a fine of up to $750 and/or up to 30 days imprisonment.
Candlemas is still a holiday celebrated on February 2, although it's not a major event involving mattress sales and school holidays. In some Christian traditions it marks the presentation of Jesus at the temple, 40 days after Christmas.
Thank You Both; yes this is more like an April-May set up for parts of tornado alley due to the synoptic set up and warm temps/gulf flow out ahead of the front. The proto-squall line starting to fire in the MS valley region moving E-NE:


Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database






thanks for update tomorrow 60 degrees nice spring day hope that hog is right
Thanx for the update. Models still flip flopping on this weekends parades. Mardi Gras looks to be in the upper 50's for now.
EASTERN CAPE - NEW RECORD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time hottest temperature anywhere in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa of 46.6 C / 115.9 F was at Addo Elephant Park in Port Elizabeth on February 1, 2016.

Link
Quoting 2. Patrap:

Your doing it all wrong says da Nutria



Groundhog Day 2016: The tale of the 'Cajun Groundhog'

Groundhogs aren't native to Louisiana, and so -- needless to say -- the observance of Groundhog Day, which is Tuesday (Feb. 2), didn't start anywhere near the Crescent City. Still, given how much this city loves traditions, whether native or otherwise, it was only natural that Groundhog Day would eventually become adopted by locals, who would transform it in their own, distinctly Louisiana way.

In this case, it's a story involving a cross-dressing groundhog, an imposter prairie dog and -- most recently -- a certain Rodent of Unusual Size. Here's the story of Groundhog Day in New Orleans.

Believed to stem from a tradition brought to the New World by German immigrants -- and coinciding with the Catholic observation of Candlemas -- the whole groundhog legend reportedly dates back at least to 1841. According to that legend, of course, if a groundhog -- the most famous being Pennsylvania's Punxsutawney Phil -- awakes from its winter hibernation and doesn't see its shadow upon emerging from its burrow on Feb. 2, it means a timely arrival to spring will follow.

If, on the other hand, said groundhog is spooked by its shadow and returns to its burrow, it portends six more weeks of winter. (See this year's prediction)

Groundhog Day 2016: All you need to know about Punxsutawney Phil
Groundhog Day 2016: All you need to know about Punxsutawney Phil
How old is Punxsutawney Phil? How accurate is he? And what is the groundhog's history? Here's all you ever needed to know about the world's most famous groundhog.

In New Orleans, one of the earliest references to the tradition crops up in The Daily Picayune of Feb. 22, 1883. (Because apparently it took a while to get word of the groundhog's mood from up north to New Orleans.)

more:.....


Nutria are also not native to LA.
No watches up yet but there looks to be a lot of daytime heating going on in the valley area based on the loop:

Valid WW Image

Mesoscale Discussions




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MS AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT WRN TN...NE LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021641Z - 021845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT IN THE MORNING RAOB
FROM JACKSON HAS TENDED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION...PERSISTENT NARROW
BANDS OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
ZONES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/GULF COAST REGION. ONE PERSISTENT BAND HAS BEEN SOUTH OF
MEMPHIS TN THROUGH THE GREENVILLE MS AREA.

BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING INSOLATION TO CONTRIBUTE TO
GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE REGION...AS
LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN. AS MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
TRANSITION TO BROADLY CYCLONIC...AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
FALL...SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF INHIBITION TO ALLOW FOR DISCRETE
STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS AT LEAST POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 18-21Z.

GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE
ALREADY MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES...ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER STORM DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES.

..KERR/GOSS.. 02/02/2016
Quoting 13. georgevandenberghe:



Nutria are also not native to LA.


Please, we know..we know a lot about how and why they are here.

Feel free to share that with us all.

Lord.
Quoting 2. Patrap:

Your doing it all wrong says da Nutria



Groundhog Day 2016: The tale of the 'Cajun Groundhog'

Groundhogs aren't native to Louisiana, and so -- needless to say -- the observance of Groundhog Day, which is Tuesday (Feb. 2), didn't start anywhere near the Crescent City. Still, given how much this city loves traditions, whether native or otherwise, it was only natural that Groundhog Day would eventually become adopted by locals, who would transform it in their own, distinctly Louisiana way.

In this case, it's a story involving a cross-dressing groundhog, an imposter prairie dog and -- most recently -- a certain Rodent of Unusual Size. Here's the story of Groundhog Day in New Orleans.

Believed to stem from a tradition brought to the New World by German immigrants -- and coinciding with the Catholic observation of Candlemas -- the whole groundhog legend reportedly dates back at least to 1841. According to that legend, of course, if a groundhog -- the most famous being Pennsylvania's Punxsutawney Phil -- awakes from its winter hibernation and doesn't see its shadow upon emerging from its burrow on Feb. 2, it means a timely arrival to spring will follow.

If, on the other hand, said groundhog is spooked by its shadow and returns to its burrow, it portends six more weeks of winter. (See this year's prediction)

Groundhog Day 2016: All you need to know about Punxsutawney Phil
Groundhog Day 2016: All you need to know about Punxsutawney Phil
How old is Punxsutawney Phil? How accurate is he? And what is the groundhog's history? Here's all you ever needed to know about the world's most famous groundhog.

In New Orleans, one of the earliest references to the tradition crops up in The Daily Picayune of Feb. 22, 1883. (Because apparently it took a while to get word of the groundhog's mood from up north to New Orleans.)

more:.....


A NOLA bud once told me that if you see a nutria's nose poking out of lake P. at dawn on Groundhog's Day then the next hurricane season was going to be bad. No poking nose then not a bad season.

Right...
+5 points to the Docs for the Trojan Badger reference.
Quoting 17. Patrap:



Please, we know..we know a lot about how and why they are here.

Feel free to share that with us all.

Lord.


We have them in Maryland too. They are a serious non-native invasive ecological pest and have caused significant damage to Chesapeake Bay swamps and marshland. They also cause agricultural damage (so far not in my garden which does have groundhogs) and undermine flood control structures like levees with their burrowing. Sorry for touching on a sore point for LA residents with these creatures.

Quoting 22. nrtiwlnvragn:

Super Rapid Scan (1 min) Visible Loop


It looks to me like we're starting to get some clearing.
Quoting 24. 62901IL:



It looks to me like we're starting to get some clearing.


Other areas here
Quoting 23. georgevandenberghe:



We have them in Maryland too. They are a serious non-native invasive ecological pest and have caused significant damage to Chesapeake Bay swamps and marshland. They also cause agricultural damage (so far not in my garden which does have groundhogs) and undermine flood control structures like levees with their burrowing. Sorry for touching on a sore point for LA residents with these creatures.


And it's also very tasty. Call your exotic meat supplier, ask for a couple of pounds of ragondin, and substitute it in any recipe where you'd normally use rabbit or stew beef. The stuff has more protein and less fat/cholesterol than beef, chicken, or even turkey.

Just sayin'...
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 1202 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1154 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 825 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
Severe Weather Page The Nexlab Text Page
For the past few winters, it's been like Groundhog Day here in Scotland, as the persistent polar jet brings yet another gale. In the past, these wind events moved on through in a few hours. Now, we're getting battered for 30 hours at a time. The ferocity isn't greater than in the past, but the duration is.
Note the sharp cloud contrast over western Lake P.







looks like a mean old witch in the far nw of the image



2016 will continue the trend of warmest years on record
in fact warming may continue till 2020 at which time
earth will be on the cusp of a point of no return
Whether the groundhog .. which ever one you want to pick .. see's their shadow or not there will be at least 6 more weeks of winter .. just a publicity stunt that is held each year ..

folk tales wab all it is some are real some are not so real
Quoting 24. 62901IL:



It looks to me like we're starting to get some clearing.


It's going to be a tight squeeze, but I don't see anything developing/crossing through the state of Illinois. It's all gonna be east of an Evansville, IN to Memphis, TN line. We missed out on this morning's rains. Front already at STL doorstep. Moving quickly. ..

EDIT...sticks foot in mouth...

Quoting 34. whitewabit:

Whether the groundhog .. which ever one you want to pick .. see's their shadow or not there will be at least 6 more weeks of winter .. just a publicity stunt that is held each year ..




2012, winter ended about March 8. 1976 winter ended about Feb 15. Most years though yep and many parts of the north 6 more weeks of winter might be interpreted as a hopeful promise rather than a disappointing prolongation.
Quoting 33. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

2016 will continue the trend of warmest years on record
in fact warming may continue till 2020 at which time
earth will be on the cusp of a point of no return


Actually 2016 may be the warmest of the next few because of the El Nino boost to atmospheric temperatures. But the trend will catch up and 2016 will be eclipsed by a neutral year, perhaps around 2020.
Afternoon 12z models showing a potential snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast around the 9th or 10th. With the PNA positive and AO expected to tank it is a possibility.
Speaking for those of us in California, 6 more weeks of winter (ie: cool & rainy) weather would be much appreciated. Stay in your burrow little rodent!
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
108 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN LEAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
SOUTHEASTERN ATTALA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 215 PM CST  
 
* AT 107 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CARTHAGE...  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...  
SINGLETON AND RENFROE AROUND 125 PM CST.  
SMYRNA AROUND 135 PM CST.  
ZAMA AROUND 140 PM CST.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE REDWATER  
AND MCCOOL.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
Quoting 38. georgevandenberghe:



Actually 2016 may be the warmest of the next few because of the El Nino boost to atmospheric temperatures. But the trend will catch up and 2016 will be eclipsed by a neutral year, perhaps around 2020.

Consider that the "pause" in atmospheric temp increases ended in 2014 (at the onset of a 15-25 year +PDO cycle), I think we're in for more pronounced warming at least till 2030.
The Groundhog Day event in Winnipeg, Canada was cancelled this year because the groundhog that they were counting on died about 3 days before Groundhog Day.

Link
Quoting 33. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

2016 will continue the trend of warmest years on record
in fact warming may continue till 2020 at which time
earth will be on the cusp of a point of no return


In the spirit of the day/film, didn't we discuss this yesterblog? :p

Quoting 40. MaxWeather:

The new 2016 Hurricane Scorecard is here
Hurricane Alex messed me up


Out of curiosity who won or came closest in last season's go?
Quoting 44. VibrantPlanet:


Consider that the "pause" in atmospheric temp increases ended in 2014 (at the onset of a 15-25 year +PDO cycle), I think we're in for more pronounced warming at least till 2030.
1) There was no "pause".

2) As with other natural cycles, the PDO doesn't heat the planet up; it merely shuffles around what's alreay in existence. No, absent global thermonuclear war or an asteroid strike, we're "in for more pronounced warming" for the next many decades. 2030 is going to be far warmer than was 2015--and 2050 will make 2030 seem like an Arctic dream by comparison.

Count on it...
F_____y
Nice high over eastern Canada on the CMC:

Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion

Excerpt:

An amplifying upper-level trough across eastern North America favors below-normal temperatures across the Southeastern U.S. during Week-2. The deterministic GFS model run continues to indicate the risk of a damaging freeze across Florida from February 10 to 12.


Quoting 46. win1gamegiantsplease:



In the spirit of the day/film, didn't we discuss this yesterblog? :p



Out of curiosity who won or came closest in last season's go?

Ironic... you and other 30 won
Quoting 45. DCSwithunderscores:

The Groundhog Day event in Winnipeg, Canada was cancelled this year because the groundhog that they were counting on died about 3 days before Groundhog Day.

Link


That probably guarantees 6 more weeks of Winter!
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 10
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING STORMS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF NATCHEZ
MISSISSIPPI TO 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 9
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1220 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO EVOLVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
OWENSBORO KENTUCKY TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENWOOD
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.


...GOSS
stay alert and safe folks............................................. .............. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO.

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
STATES PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
DEAMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO
QUEBEC. THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...AS STRONGER MID-UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS PROGRESSIVE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR
40N/155W...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A COLD FRONT TRAILING EQUATORWARD FROM THE
SYNOPTIC LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH
OH...EASTERN KY/TN...AL INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY TO THE
EAST...WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES BEING IN
THE WARM SECTOR INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM
EASTERN NY/PA THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF VA/NC/SC TO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 04/00Z.

...NORTHEAST GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST VA...
MOISTENING OF THE AIR MASS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE
RATES...THE MOISTENING AND LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK AREA.
TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...NEAR THE
POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT.

ALTHOUGH UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
DURING DAY 2...MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLE OF WEAK SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSES
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THESE FEATURES COULD PROVE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. STRONG DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...DESPITE SOME
VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AND LOW LCLS WITHIN THE MOISTENING AIR
MASS ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN
LOW-PROBABILITIES...GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAK DESTABILIZATION. THIS
OUTLOOK HAS ALSO REMOVED THE DELMARVA REGION FROM THE MARGINAL RISK
AREA...AS ANY STORMS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED.

...OREGON COAST...
A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL AREA OF WA/ORE/NORTHERN CA BETWEEN
03/21Z TO 04/00Z. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND COOLING 500-MB
TEMPERATURES /-26 TO -30 C/ SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...SUGGEST A COUPLE OF
TSTMS/LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL IS
GREATEST ALONG THE OREGON COAST.

..PETERS.. 02/02/2016

Quoting 6. guygee:

http://www.wyoroad.info/highway/conditions/Dist1. html
As of 12:00 A.M., I-80 between Cheyenne and Laramie is projected to be closed for an extended period of time. As of 12:00 A.M., I-80 WESTBOUND between Laramie and Rawlins is projected to be closed for an extended period of time. As of 9:00 A.M.: I-80 between Rawlins and Rock Springs is projected to open within 2 hours. Please be advised: The Summit Rest Area on I-80 between Laramie and Cheyenne at mp 323 is closed indefinitely. Truck parking is being allowed only in the lower parking lot. Wagonhound rest area located on I-80 between Arlington and Elk Mountain at mp 267 is closed until further notice.

Per W.S. 24-1-109, motorists traveling on a closed road without permission from WYDOT or WHP may be subject to a fine of up to $750 and/or up to 30 days imprisonment.



Is there snow that far North...? Or has summer roadwork season already begun?
Quoting 7. ldude:

Candlemas is still a holiday celebrated on February 2, although it's not a major event involving mattress sales and school holidays. In some Christian traditions it marks the presentation of Jesus at the temple, 40 days after Christmas.



Sorry if already mentioned, but the day got it's start as being halfway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox. Days (nothern hemisphere) start getting longer much more quickly now.
Here is the SPC tornado watch box noted below and current look to the cells:

Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop
Valid WW Image

Quoting 57. MontanaZephyr:




Sorry if already mentioned, but the day got it's start as being halfway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox. Days (nothern hemisphere) start getting longer much more quickly now.


In much of the Northern U.S. Mid February marks the time when you start to have to be really careful with greenhouse and coldframe ventilation or the strong sun will cook the plants. December.. not so worrisome.
Two current tornado warnings on the loops in MS NE of Jackson:

Quoting 58. weathermanwannabe:

Here is the SPC tornado watch box noted below and current look to the cells:

Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop
Valid WW Image


The sun is out here with some actual clearing taking place. The temperature is 74 with a dewpoint of 65. The wind has shifted to the southeast from due south, and the barometer is just now falling again after rising earlier today. Both are indicative of the strong low passing off to the NW of me. The showers shown on radar in Alabama have almost no lighting associated with them. The last thing I wanted to see right now was sun.
62. vis0
okay now that we have a group of shadowy experts at hand, here my question.  i have not seen my shadow in 23 yrs, prey-tell what dus thateth mean?

BTW did any of the     WxNodels     WxModels see there shadow?

and to set the record straight ...

(insert here a 33RPM record played at 75RPM speed ---get it,  it chipmunks the sound on record)

...as to my 2cents, i do think animals can predict a week to even a months ahead, BUT only for their local (a third towards the horizons) and if left alone and in good health and in a country setting. One major problem is that usually man presents certain animals with 3 strikes right off the bat in having big cities (but, man needs that so too bad), man add pollutants directly affecting animals brain (that, pollution man can correct) and the warming of the globe, which one day will lead to most other animals to say there first coherent human words W*F!(clearly, instead of thinking of it for several years now) and you thought it was "iii  wlub yaa"
63. vis0

Quoting 1. georgevandenberghe:

DC area groundhogs saw their shadows this morning.

In Canada ONLY six more weeks of winter would be a blessing. I think legend there is eight more weeks.
Yes the weeks go by the length of the shadow if there where sunshine.  So in Dakster,AK (new town just made up) when their groundhog's view of a shadow it means 24 more weeks of winter BUT if the groundhpog wipes its brow while  saying "waahhhheew!," that means 24 more weeks of winter sprinkled with some days of tropical weather.
Thanks for the laughter, docs.

"According to a 2001 article published in the prestigious Annals of Improbable Research, "The Groundhog Oscillation: Evidence of Global Change", Punxsutawney Phil's forecasts have shown a high variability since 1980. This pattern, part of the larger "Groundhog Oscillation" or GO cycle, is convincing evidence of human-caused climate change."

"NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) analyzed Punxsutawney Phil's forecasts between 1988 - 2015 (...). If we evaluate just the twelve years when the departure of February and March temperatures from average over the contiguous U.S. were both of the same sign, Phil had five correct forecasts and seven blown forecasts.
NOAA concluded in last year's version of this analysis that "It really isn't a "bright" idea to take a measure such as a groundhog's shadow and use it as a predictive meteorological tool for the entire United States."

___
Link / Staggering video shows powerful Storm Henry force waterfall to flow UPWARDS, Mirror.co.uk.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 321 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 300 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 257 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 248 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 245 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 238 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 226 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 221 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 204 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 204 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 201 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 153 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 150 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 143 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 108 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1259 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Quoting 51. MaxWeather:


Ironic... you and other 30 won


Yay, where are our blue ribbons? :p
The superstition arose that if a hibernating badger woke up and saw its shadow on Candlemas, there would be six more weeks of severe winter weather. When Europeans settled the New World, they didn't find any badgers. So, instead of building wooden badgers, they decided to use native groundhogs (aka the woodchuck, land beaver, or whistlepig) as their prognosticating rodent.

When Europeans settled the New World, they did not look far enough, or they might have found the native American badger (Taxidea taxus).
Badgers are not 'rodents' (order Rodentia), but are members of the family Mustelidae, which also includes the otters, polecats, weasels and wolverines.
The American badger and the European badger (Meles meles) are somewhat similar, but are placed in different Subfamilies, Taxideinae for the former and Melinae for the latter species.

Badgers do not 'hibernate'.
The European badger does prepare for 'winter sleep' in the colder parts of its native range, but where winters are less harsh, badgers either forgo winter sleep entirely or spend long periods underground, emerging in mild spells.
The American badger may become less active in winter. A badger may spend much of the winter in cycles of 'torpor' that last around 29 hours. They do emerge from their burrows when the temperature is above freezing.

Maybe the superstition holds true if the prognosticating badger emerges from its state of torpor on Candlemas, and sees or doesn't see its shadow, within its native range.
20 trees lost on Torrey Pines South Course in San Diego during last storm. They had the pro tour in town for the Farmers Open.



Link
Quoting 33. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

2016 will continue the trend of warmest years on record
in fact warming may continue till 2020 at which time
earth will be on the cusp of a point of no return
I highly doubt that, how much do you think the Earth will warm in 4 years?
Will be going home soon to watch the coverage on TWC but urging folks to stay safe and stay tuned to your local news and/or Noaa weather radio this evening and again tomorrow if you are in a tornado watch area (with four current tornado warnings on the loops). Here is the first report of the afternoon and bigger picture..........Have to keep an eye on those dry lines going into the evening hours:

today Filtered Reports Graphic
146  
WFUS53 KPAH 022135  
TORPAH  
KYC107-149-177-022215-  
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0001.160202T2135Z-160202T2215Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
335 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
EASTERN HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...  
SOUTH CENTRAL MCLEAN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...  
NORTHWESTERN MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...  
 
* UNTIL 415 PM CST  
 
* AT 335 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MADISONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
MADISONVILLE...EARLINGTON...MORTONS GAP...HANSON...SACRAMENTO...ST.CHARLES AND BREMEN.    
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
 
Warnings

Rainfall warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Rain, heavy at times is expected. The frozen ground has a reduced ability to absorb this rainfall.

Rain is forecast to spread into the regions this evening. The rainfall will be heavy at times, mainly through the overnight hours, and may be accompanied by a thunderstorm or two.

Total rainfall amounts up to 30 mm are likely by the time the rain tapers off on Wednesday morning.

Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Based on the tilt of the line, looks like North Alabama is next in line on the South end of the squall line along with Western TN and KY where there are two current warnings further North.
Leaving Yall with the current T-storm outlook (that may spawn rotating cells) going into this evening. Stay safe.



Near Newton, MS a little earlier.





Quoting 78. Gearsts:


Is that a hurricane coming up the coast? A little to early.lolol
@ Doc and Dok .... this was an absolutely fun read! lol .... especially loved the ground hog imagery and video at the end .... go Wundergroundhogs!

I hope we see minimal damage from the potential tornado area, though. That would NOT be fun....

Locally we had a wonderfully warm, "typical" February day courtesy of a high pressure ridge to our N and NE ....

Observing with interest the area of unsettled wx out in the Central ATL ....
Quoting 6. guygee:

http://www.wyoroad.info/highway/conditions/Dist1. html
As of 12:00 A.M., I-80 between Cheyenne and Laramie is projected to be closed for an extended period of time. As of 12:00 A.M., I-80 WESTBOUND between Laramie and Rawlins is projected to be closed for an extended period of time. As of 9:00 A.M.: I-80 between Rawlins and Rock Springs is projected to open within 2 hours. Please be advised: The Summit Rest Area on I-80 between Laramie and Cheyenne at mp 323 is closed indefinitely. Truck parking is being allowed only in the lower parking lot. Wagonhound rest area located on I-80 between Arlington and Elk Mountain at mp 267 is closed until further notice.

Per W.S. 24-1-109, motorists traveling on a closed road without permission from WYDOT or WHP may be subject to a fine of up to $750 and/or up to 30 days imprisonment.

They sometimes have super imagery from those WYoRoad cams ....
85. vis0

Quoting 51. MaxWeather:


Ironic... you and other 30 won
Weird in the 2016 early chart Ellioe & ~ i have caught the BIG WAVE...hanging 10!!!!!!!! (sit down aquak9 not of snow)
Quoting 81. washingtonian115:

Is that a hurricane coming up the coast? A little to early.lolol


Lots of isotherms running through it with a classic warm/cold sector. Predominantly a baroclinic
storm as opposed to a warm core subtropical system or a tropical system without a lot of isotherms running
through it. Still unnerving
Quoting 81. washingtonian115:

Is that a hurricane coming up the coast? A little to early.lolol


It'd be cool to see phasing of those systems. Clipper type system coming in from the Great Lakes region, a low riding up the east coast, high pressure in eastern Canada......
National Lightning

62. vis0
9:07 PM GMT on February 02, 2016


okay now that we have a group of shadowy experts at hand, here my question. i have not seen my shadow in 23 yrs, prey-tell what dus thateth mean?

If you're really tall, I think it means we get 6 more weeks of basketball!
92. vis0

Quoting 48. washingtonian115:

F_____y

i think i now washi115s mind, it ain't _antas_,

Lets see carry the 1 divide by 2 ...is it "_inall_" no wait her fav colour is "frozen white" got it _irefl_!...no  washi115 just got new batteries just before the last Armageddon storm ( and were still here) so maybe its (wait not sure how to spell it)  excuse me you yeah you reading this,  ya should know how da ya spell the following with 2 or 3 o's ...Flooozy?
Quoting 91. PensacolaDoug:


62. vis0
9:07 PM GMT on February 02, 2016

okay now that we have a group of shadowy experts at hand, here my question. i have not seen my shadow in 23 yrs, prey-tell what dus thateth mean?

If you're really tall, I think it means we get 6 more weeks of basketball!



6 more weeks of basketball?

Yuck.
Quoting 70. NativeSun:

I highly doubt that, how much do you think the Earth will warm in 4 years?


Wanna bet?

"I, Mark Boslough, being of sound mind, do hereby challenge any individual or organization to a $25,000 bet that global warming is real and will continue. If the climatological average global land surface temperature goes up again in 2016, setting another new record, the party that accepts my challenge must donate $25,000 to a science education nonprofit of my choice. If not, I will donate $25,000 to a nonprofit designated by the accepting party.

Details are below. But it doesn't matter. It's a sucker bet. Everyone knows that global warming is real.

Those who reject mainstream climate science have a bully problem. They talk big. They harass and threaten scientists. They publish angry anti-science blogs and vitriolic editorials. Deniers with political power issue subpoenas, file investigative demands, and even hold kangaroo hearings. The lightweights write anti-science letters to the editor of local newspapers, tweet insults, swarm people on social media, and send hate mail.

They all claim with utter certainty that there is no possibility of serious risk from human-caused global warming. Yet when it comes to taking a personal risk to prove they mean it, they back down. Like all bullies, they are cowards."

Link

Quoting 80. StAugustineFL:

Near Newton, MS a little earlier.








Tree snapped in one direction, another part of one in the other from the looks of it
Quoting 56. MontanaZephyr:



Is there snow that far North...? Or has summer roadwork season already begun?
They usually get some nasty blizzard conditions over that part of I80 at least once a year .... haven't seen much the last few though. As I said in another message, the webcams from that site are usually quite interesting at a time like this ....

I hear they had I-70 east of Dallas to as far east as Nebraska state line closed last night .... so apparently some poor conditions ...
Quoting 87. georgevandenberghe:



Lots of isotherms running through it with a classic warm/cold sector. Predominantly a baroclinic
storm as opposed to a warm core subtropical system or a tropical system without a lot of isotherms running
through it. Still unnerving

I know its not a T.C.I was being sarcastic.
98. vis0

Quoting 61. sar2401:

The sun is out here with some actual clearing taking place. The temperature is 74 with a dewpoint of 65. The wind has shifted to the southeast from due south, and the barometer is just now falling again after rising earlier today. Both are indicative of the strong low passing off to the NW of me. The showers shown on radar in Alabama have almost no lighting associated with them. The last thing I wanted to see right now was sun.
careful, angles are almost (88%) right for severe not just nearby but overhead  Using my educated guess in my theories not known science, the latter sar24012 knows is via NOAA or wait 6hrs after it happens (:- P)for local official(s) to out out a warning.
100. vis0

Quoting 67. win1gamegiantsplease:



Yay, where are our blue ribbons? :p
they got caught up in the shredder in trying to cut 29 more out of 1 ribbon, BACK TO SERIOUS WEATHER BE ON ALERT MISS towards SE (~Florida a bit later) even maybe a bit more northward .

NOAA RADIO ON  [  ]CHECK, batteries in flashlight 
I posted about this earlier! Glad Levi notice the CFS trending much colder for SST anomaly over the atlantic. CFS november run had record warm Atlantic for Feb and +AMO VS now

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 2 hhace 2 horas
Time to start verifying those CFS forecasts for a warming MDR. So far not happening. CFS now backing off in spring.
102. Tcwx2
Hello Sar. It is very humid right now as a shower passed through about a hour ago. Severe weather is definitely a possibility but I don't don't think it's that big of a deal as we once thought, however.
Quoting 61. sar2401:

The sun is out here with some actual clearing taking place. The temperature is 74 with a dewpoint of 65. The wind has shifted to the southeast from due south, and the barometer is just now falling again after rising earlier today. Both are indicative of the strong low passing off to the NW of me. The showers shown on radar in Alabama have almost no lighting associated with them. The last thing I wanted to see right now was sun.
Quoting 101. Gearsts:

I posted about this earlier! Glad Levi notice the CFS trending much colder for SST anomaly over the atlantic. CFS november run had record warm Atlantic for Feb and +AMO VS now

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 2 hhace 2 horas
Time to start verifying those CFS forecasts for a warming MDR. So far not happening. CFS now backing off in spring.
No biggie...Its February 2nd.
Quoting 103. hydrus:

No biggie...Its February 2nd.
You say that but the Atlantic has been on this bad setup since 2013 and i can't wait for change to happen.
Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 4 minhace 4 minutos
Carrollton, AL needs to prepare for a tornado!
lots of bad damage on Brett Adairs stream on tvn weather live. rain wrapped tornado went through, with storms lined up to continue coming through
Holy cow! The 18Z GFS is really putting cold down into the deep south with several shots of moisture!
Quoting 104. Gearsts:

You say that but the Atlantic has been on this bad setup since 2013 and i can't wait for change to happen.
2015 started out record cold and ended almost record warm.We still have time.
TWC has been showing damage and the tornado footage from 30 minute ago (large wedge - they estimate was about a half mile wide)
Quoting 104. Gearsts:

You say that but the Atlantic has been on this bad setup since 2013 and i can't wait for change to happen.


If it hadn't been for El Nino in 2015, the Atlantic Hurricane season would've been a lot more active. Strong tropical waves coupled with the MDR warming very quickly in late August through to October to quite a bit above average. Shear was the main factor inhibiting development last year - with record high amounts at times. It looks like it'll be neutral or in a La Nina state for the peak of the hurricane season this year. That should mean we'll have an average-above average season given the models are showing SSTs being above average across much of the MDR. At least for the moment.

Two different papers pointing the same way -

# 1
Climate-driven vertical acceleration of Icelandic crust measured by continuous GPS geodesy

Statistically significant upward velocity and accelerations are recorded at 27 GPS stations, predominantly located in the Central Highlands region of Iceland, where present-day thinning of the Iceland ice caps results in velocities of more than 30 mm/yr and uplift accelerations of 1–2 mm/yr2. We use our acceleration estimates to back calculate to a time of zero velocity, which coincides with the initiation of ice loss in Iceland from ice mass balance calculations and Arctic warming trends.

Link

#2

Increase in volcanic eruptions at the end of the ice age caused by melting ice caps and erosion

As the climate warmed, the ice caps melted, decreasing the pressure on the Earth’s mantle, leading to an increase in both magma production and volcanic eruptions.

Link
Quoting 56. MontanaZephyr:



Is there snow that far North...? Or has summer roadwork season already begun?
I do not know, I live in FL. But from what I hear, not so much. I also note increasing powers of government on restricting travel during fake "emergencies", including fines and imprisonment. Definitely unconstitutional unless martial law is declared.

But dragging in from the last blog, Neap gets cheers for belittling these outlaw road warriors "endangering rescuers lives". That pegs my HS meter. Go west, young ones, but above all, go prepared. No rescue required.


1. Don't worry, it's two weeks away, so I'll take it with a grain of salt, for the sake of the forum.

2. Where is Houston on this map in relation to the sleet line? Does GFS project north and east of the area?

3. What is the difference between an ice storm and a sleet event. Which does more harm?


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 12
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
A SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 650 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI
AND LOUISIANA. A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF MERIDIAN
MISSISSIPPI TO 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MC COMB MISSISSIPPI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&
Quoting 113. pureet1948:



1. Don't worry, it's two weeks away, so I'll take it with a grain of salt, for the sake of the forum.

2. Where is Houston on this map in relation to the sleet line? Does GFS project north and east of the area?

3. What is the difference between an ice storm and a sleet event. Which does more harm?
Sleet is the least. Heavy ice storm clings to power lines, causing widespead power outages. Very heavy wet snow brings down 100-year old pine trees, crashing on houses and power lines. Give me sleet over those other two anytime. In any case, beware treacherous road conditions. Extra clothing, blankets and other emergency items are as critical for blizzard chasers in their "blizzard kit" as the here-much-ballyhooed "hurricane kit" is for hurricane chasers as well as for the non-voluntary hurricane participants. Just common sense.
Quoting 112. guygee:

I do not know, I live in FL. But from what I hear, not so much. I also note increasing powers of government on restricting travel during fake "emergencies", including fines and imprisonment. Definitely unconstitutional unless martial law is declared.


The civil service trade-off: decline to respond to emergency rescue calls from unprepared motorists (or motorists caught off-guard by elements) who disregard closures for arterials either blocked by or at acute risk from weather-induced factors (namely, flood waters, snow drifts, whiteouts, fire complexes, and so on). Finite resources from public operational funding notwithstanding, such conduct from underprepared motorists needlessly endangers not only the safety, but also the lives of civil service workers (e.g., fire, paramedic, law enforcement) who are beckoned to an avoidable emergency.

The preventive, if precautionary option, all perfectly legal: make the administrative move to temporarily close major arterials which cannot be served by emergency civil service while the duration of safety risk remains active. This operational decision remains well within constitutional bounds.
Quoting 117. NocturnalEcosystems:



The civil service trade-off: decline to respond to emergency rescue calls from unprepared motorists (or motorists caught off-guard by elements) who disregard closures for arterials either blocked by or at acute risk from weather-induced factors (namely, flood waters, snow drifts, whiteouts, fire complexes, and so on). Finite resources from public operational funding notwithstanding, such conduct from underprepared motorists needlessly endangers not only the safety, but also the lives of civil service workers (e.g., fire, paramedic, law enforcement) who are beckoned to an avoidable emergency.

The preventive, if precautionary option, all perfectly legal: make the administrative move to temporarily close major arterials which cannot be served by emergency civil service while the duration of safety risk remains active. This operational decision remains well within constitutional bounds.
LOL. Actually not very amusing when local law enforcement gets full military gear for their SWAT teams but does not bother with basic rescue requirements. Not as exciting as fake terrorism I suppose. How many people die due to weather events vs. terrorism? You don't even want to know.
3. What is the difference between an ice storm and a sleet event. Which does more harm?

Ice storm by far. And ice storms have a warm feature, the precipitation falls as water all the way to just above the surface. Sleet freezes and thaws to form pellets Halfway between snow and rain.
Here's the safety formula for an ice storm , it's below freezing at the surface, and raining . If your driving watch the rooster tails coming off other peoples tires. When they disappear pull over.
The rain is freezing on contact.

This pretty good question , because the decline of the caribou in Canada and Alaska are linked to freezing rain events. After these storms, the caribou, can't paw their way through the ice crust , like the past when just snow fell. And as I said , ice storms have a warm feature.
The ground hog has a 39 % record of being right .

They should move to coin flipping .
122. MahFL
Quoting 118. guygee:

LOL. Actually not very amusing when local law enforcement gets full military gear for their SWAT teams but does not bother with basic rescue requirements. Not as exciting as fake terrorism I suppose. How many people die due to weather events vs. terrorism? You don't even want to know.


I think you need to take your anti government rants to another forum, you do realize the NWS ( which a lot of us weather enthusiasts rely on) is a gov organization, right ?
Quoting 116. guygee:

Sleet is the least. Heavy ice storm clings to power lines, causing widespead outages. Very heavy wet snow brings down 100-year old pine trees, crashing on houses and power lines. Give me sleet over those other two anytime. In any case, beware treacherous road conditions. Extra clothing, blankets and other emergency items are as critical for blizzard chasers as the here-much-ballyhooed "hurricane kit" is for hurricane chasers as well as the non-voluntary hurricane participants. Just common sense.



Uh, that IS sleet in the graphic, right, guygee? The colors denoting sleet and frozen precip look alike to me. Help me out, huh?
Quoting 119. RobertWC:

3. What is the difference between an ice storm and a sleet event. Which does more harm?

Ice storm by far. And ice storms have a warm feature, the precipitation falls as water all the way to just above the surface. Sleet freezes and thaws to form pellets Halfway between snow and rain.
Here's the safety formula for an ice storm , it's below freezing at the surface, and raining . If your driving watch the rooster tails coming off other peoples tires. When they disappear pull over.
The rain is freezing on contact.

This pretty good question , because the decline of the caribou in Canada and Alaska are linked to freezing rain events. After these storms, the caribou, can't paw their way through the ice crust , like the past when just snow fell. And as I said , ice storms have a warm feature.
When you are driving in an ice storm, sometimes the ice sticks to your windshield no matter how hard your defrosters and wipers are working. I experienced this once on the NY Turnpike. This happened when the surface temperature was around 20F but it was raining. Many people pulled over and stopped, and the rest of us kept plodding at below 30 MPH. If we had been in hill country, we were all done.
125. Tcwx2
The question is will it be true? Just taking from your name , you are in Pensacola?
Quoting 107. PensacolaDoug:

Holy cow! The 18Z GFS is really putting cold down into the deep south with several shots of moisture!
Quoting 122. MahFL:



I think you need to take your anti government rants to another forum, you do realize the NWS ( which a lot of us weather enthusiasts rely on) is a gov organization, right ?
Have I spoken against the NWS? Never, check my history on this site, you will find quite the opposite. Long-time members here will vouch for that if asked.

The government is made up of many different factions. Try to learn and distinguish.
Quoting 101. Gearsts:

I posted about this earlier! Glad Levi notice the CFS trending much colder for SST anomaly over the atlantic. CFS november run had record warm Atlantic for Feb and AMO VS now

Levi Cowan %u200F@TropicalTidbits 2 hhace 2 horas
Time to start verifying those CFS forecasts for a warming MDR. So far not happening. CFS now backing off in spring.


We need to watch these trends as the latest CFSv2 now is showing a raging El-Nino come again this Fall. Also this model shows the MDR much cooler than normal for Peak of Hurricane Season. Interesting to see as the February update on the CFSv2 is rather bullish for El-Nino this Fall.
Quoting 123. pureet1948:




Uh, that IS sleet in the graphic, right, guygee? The colors denoting sleet and frozen precip look alike to me. Help me out, huh?
Yes, I see that forecast as sleet. The difference between cold rain and disaster is very hard to predict, as I said in earlier posts, be prepared is my best advice.
Quoting 125. Tcwx2:

The question is will it be true? Just taking from your name , you are in Pensacola?
Yes. West side down on Bayou Grande across from Pensacola NAS.
 
112  
WFUS54 KJAN 030147  
TORJAN  
MSC087-103-030245-  
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0022.160203T0147Z-160203T0245Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
747 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN NOXUBEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
LOWNDES COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 845 PM CST  
 
* AT 747 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BROOKSVILLE...OR 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF  
STARKVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
BROOKSVILLE AROUND 755 PM CST.  
CRAWFORD AND DEERBROOK AROUND 800 PM CST.  
BENT OAK AROUND 810 PM CST.  
COLUMBUS AROUND 825 PM CST.  
COLUMBUS AFB AND STEENS AROUND 830 PM CST.  
CALEDONIA AROUND 840 PM CST.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3338 8829 3308 8865 3320 8877 3328 8871  
3329 8867 3333 8867 3354 8851 3353 8847  
3356 8850 3369 8840 3369 8837 3372 8833  
3374 8833 3374 8826  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 219DEG 39KT 3319 8867  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
DB  
 
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133. vis0
IF UNDER WATCH OR WARNING SKIP THIS nothing else should entertain your thoughts than be aware of whats happening around you.
drag bookmark into folder for later referencing.
BOOKMARK::BOOKMARK to Dr MASTER entrynum=3238 pg3 (go to comment 133 for vis0 comment you saved)

Since some of the talk blog-led to aGW here a VID off a Latin ch some saw but i've thought of a twist to it being beneficial to bringing back humans in case aGW over many years directly or INDIRECTLY causes humans to vanish off Earth, its at my zilly blog pg.6 cmmnt#298

IF UNDER WATCH OR WARNING SKIP THIS nothing else should entertain your thoughts than be aware of whats happening around you.

Quoting 103. hydrus:

No biggie...Its February 2nd.


This is no fluke as other models are coming aboard now too. Going to be some unhappy campers once the NMME becomes public in a few days.
120. guygee -

Excellent point

Storms vs. terror: More Americans killed in weekend blizzard than Islamic extremist attacks in 14 years after 9/11

Peter Bergen's new book, who interviewed Osama in a cave long before Ted Cruz ever heard of him said this on CBS this morning -

"You have 5000 percent chance of being shot and killed with a hand gun by a fellow American over being killed by a Islamic extremist "
Another busy E-Pac potentially. Atlantic not looking ideal

Quoting 135. RobertWC:

120. guygee -

Excellent point

Storms vs. terror: More Americans killed in weekend blizzard than Islamic extremist attacks in 14 years after 9/11

Peter Bergen's new book, who interviewed Osama in a cave long before Ted Cruz ever heard of him said this on CBS this morning -

"You have 5000 percent chance of being shot and killed with a hand gun by a fellow American over being killed by a Islamic extremist "
...and even a much greater probability of being killed in a "routine" traffic accident, just another statistic on Telegraph Road.
Quoting 128. guygee:

Yes, I see that forecast as sleet. The difference between cold rain and disaster is very hard to predict, as I said in earlier posts, be prepared is my best advice.



Thanks. Houston can handle a little sleet.
Quoting 124. guygee:

When you are driving in an ice storm, sometimes the ice sticks to your windshield no matter how hard your defrosters and wipers are working. I experienced this once on the NY Turnpike. This happened when the surface temperature was around 20F but it was raining. Many people pulled over and stopped, and the rest of us kept plodding at below 30 MPH. If we had been in hill country, we were all done.


Exactly my point , pull over and stop! The rain is freezing on contact. It is water all the way to the surface (just above freezing) , but so cold at the surface it turns ice on contact. This why power lines and trees break. Anyone who pushes on is a fool.
Quoting 139. RobertWC:



Exactly my point , pull over and stop! The rain is freezing on contact. It is water all the way to the surface (just above freezing) , but so cold at the surface it turns ice on contact. This why power lines and trees break. Anyone who pushes on is a fool.
You can argue that anyone who ventures out in a thunderstorm is a fool as well, and let's not even bring up hurricane chasers (I've weathered a few) or tornado chasers. I know my limits, and I pull over when needed.
Quoting 140. guygee:

You can argue that anyone who ventures out in thunderstorm is a fool as well, and let's not even bring up hurricanes chasers (I've weathered a few) or tornado chasers. I know my limits, and I pull over when needed.
Just as a PS, when we need to travel, I think inattention, boredom and sleepiness are bigger killers than all drugs combined. I say this from both sides, as one who was almost killed by a dozing driver swerving across the median on old FL SR 520, and also as one who once "woke up" past my exit on the highway after a long workday. Those are the things that concern me more than even bad weather, the mundane dangers of everyday life. Now I pay two rents to live very close to my job: lessons learned.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 813 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 807 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 759 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 756 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 747 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Here's video of today's tornado in Pickens County, Alabama. I think it goes without saying that this thing was likely quite violent.

Don't you dare pull me out of my warm burrow again!

Last year:



This year:

Runaway groundhog leaves Sun Prairie, WI looking for replacement
Very good news about the Sierra snowpack. The Feb.1 measurement was taken and it shows 130% of normal for the date.
Quoting 117. NocturnalEcosystems:
The civil service trade-off: decline to respond to emergency rescue calls from unprepared motorists (or motorists caught off-guard by elements) who disregard closures for arterials either blocked by or at acute risk from weather-induced factors (namely, flood waters, snow drifts, whiteouts, fire complexes, and so on). Finite resources from public operational funding notwithstanding, such conduct from underprepared motorists needlessly endangers not only the safety, but also the lives of civil service workers (e.g., fire, paramedic, law enforcement) who are beckoned to an avoidable emergency.

The preventive, if precautionary option, all perfectly legal: make the administrative move to temporarily close major arterials which cannot be served by emergency civil service while the duration of safety risk remains active. This operational decision remains well within constitutional bounds.
From what I remember of Kansas City, if they have to tow you from a designated emergency snow route then you are paying a fine. No National Guard needed for that. So much for the martial law argument.
Foggy morning in Lake Eola Park, Orlando

This is the view out of my apartment window onto the southern end of Lake Eola Park in Orlando. Very foggy this morning at 7 AM when the picture was taken, but it lifted quickly as I drove to work around 8 AM. I meant to post it this morning but got in a rush. The weird metal is the "art deco" artwork above the old hotel logo "Post Parkside" that has been converted to apartments, covering the 2nd-4th floors looking east. In season, farmers markets and lots of events right below my window, but at least the noise subsides 9-10 PM at the latest. Good news is that it is less than 10 minutes commute to work even in traffic, and I can walk in half an hour or so if needed.
Quoting 126. guygee:

Have I spoken against the NWS? Never, check my history on this site, you will find quite the opposite. Long-time members here will vouch for that if asked.

The government is made up of many different factions. Try to learn and distinguish.


One of the great things about the NWS is that they accomplish a lot on a relatively tight budget, that is they are very efficient. They deserve a lot bigger of a budget though. It figures one of the better examples of public service working properly in our government get's one of the smallest budgets...

Gametime forecast for the SuperBowl here in the SF Bay Area has it sunny, dry and 70F. Not bad. Long range has El Nino storminess returning by the middle of the month. Hope so.
Quoting 62. vis0:
okay now that we have a group of shadowy experts at hand, here my question.  i have not seen my shadow in 23 yrs, prey-tell what dus thateth mean?

BTW did any of the     WxNodels     WxModels see there shadow?
First, you are not aware of your shadow. Therefore, you think you do not see it. It's like the gorilla dancing through the group of people tossing a ball back and forth. You watch the people, having been told to count how many times they toss the ball to someone else and overlook the gorilla. Here is one version of the Monkey Business Illusion.

Second, the WxModels do not see but that does not mean they are not aware. More research is needed here.
Quoting 144. Ameister12:

Here's video of today's tornado in Pickens County, Alabama. I think it goes without saying that this thing was likely quite violent.




Thankfully on reports of injuries or deaths, but it may be too early for that yet. Still, that's a strong tornado no doubt.
Quoting 109. Sfloridacat5:

TWC has been showing damage and the tornado footage from 30 minute ago (large wedge - they estimate was about a half mile wide)


It's interesting that aside from that, there have been few actual severe events today. I expected to see a lot more in Mississippi and Alabama today. This tornado shows the potential that existed, as the shear has been high and plenty enough instability for numerous severe wind gusts and multiple tornadoes, some being strong.

That's the weird thing about meteorology, the parameters can be there and yet sometimes things don't happen, other times things go nuts with marginal parameters.

GFS 00z out to 108hr has a nice snowstorm for central and eastern SC and NC.

Quoting 154. Jedkins01:



That's the weird thing about meteorology, the parameters can be there and yet sometimes things don't happen, other times things go nuts with marginal parameters.


I disagree. I think that if nothing happens, the parameters weren't adequate - even if they were seemingly so at first glance. Otherwise something would happen. :P

It really just attests to our still quasi-primitive meteorological knowledge.
157. Tcwx2
Wow, the GFS 00z is giving the south a ton of snow (from our standards).
Pretty cold for 1 p.m.

159. Tcwx2
We can handle it! Bring it on!!!
Quoting 158. BaltimoreBrian:

Pretty cold for 1 p.m.


Quoting 149. Jedkins01:



One of the great things about the NWS is that they accomplish a lot on a relatively tight budget, that is they are very efficient. They deserve a lot bigger of a budget though. It figures one of the better examples of public service working properly in our government get's one of the smallest budgets...


I absolutely agree. Along with many others on this blog, I took a strong stand against Senator Santorum's attempts to privatize the NWS. Then, there were outrageous incidents of NWS employees being fired for making scholarly presentations at climate research conferences. I stand on the side of the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center on QuickSCAT and potential follow-up missions and support EOS in general. I even interviewed for a job working on GOES-R, but it did not come to pass, as I mentioned on this blog. I support the mission and funding for NOAA and the NWS. We all need to do that, because unlike Australia, the weather service is not written into the US Constitution. We absolutely need to support NOAA and the NWS or it can be taken away from the people.
Link / Millions in Ethiopia facing worst drought for decades: UN, Africadaily.net, Feb 03, 2016.
"At least 10.2 million people need food aid in Ethiopia, a figure the UN has warned could double within months, casting a fifth of the population into hunger."
"People of the country are facing the worst drought in 30 years... the scale of emergency is too much for any single government," Ban Ki-Moon told reporters in the Ethiopian capital.
"Last year Ethiopia was hit by one of the strongest El Nino events on record... the scale and severity of humanitarian needs have significantly increased," he said."

And it's not the only country currently facing a severe drought in the region.
Had to visit College Station today. Most of the day was spent waiting so I walked over to the library to read Trenberth in Nature: Climate (or whatever the name is) $32 per article for me over the internet. The library has a blanket license and anyone can get a temporary logon id to access the Nature website by virtue of the A&M permissions.

So many young faces. Some poised, others looked lost. Some trying hard to repel attention from anyone. An interesting game of categorizing the facial expressions and so many students for my amusement.

"I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now."
ALABAMA TORNADO:
"The National Weather Service is reporting significant structure damage after a suspected tornado struck in rural western Alabama. Forecasters said structure damage has been reported near Dancy, McMullen and Aliceville, which is roughly 45 miles west of Tuscaloosa. Homes were damaged in Beavertown, but no serious injuries were reported. There were also reports of damage to the administration building at the Federal Correctional Facility in Aliceville, but officials say all inmates are secure."

TEXAS WILDFIRE :
"A wildfire continues to burn within the interior of Big Bend National Park on Tuesday. The fire is now 1,000 acres, and moving to the southeast. Park officials said that the southeast edges do no pose a threat to people or structures. Firefighters remain on the scene. The national park covers 801,163 acres, and helps to form the international boundary between Mexico and the United States."

Link
Quoting 157. Tcwx2:

Wow, the GFS 00z is giving the south a ton of snow (from our standards).
Wish we could get an inch or so on the gulf coast, but I'm not expecting that to happen although it would be nice
Quoting 152. Jedkins01:



Thankfully on reports of injuries or deaths, but it may be too early for that yet. Still, that's a strong tornado no doubt.
Whoa. That chaser was way too close to that tornado for a while. He's lucky. No injuries reported that I've heard of. Those bright lights at the end of the video are at the federal pen in Aliceville. There was some damage to a couple of maintenance type building, but none to the main part of the prison. All the tornadic storms have been confined to a small area near the AL/MS line so far. I've just had a couple of low topped cells here with some rain but no lightning. The winds that were supposed to developed have not. The worst I've had was a 14 mph gust. Radar Dog is conked out and not doing his nervous dance. So far, so good.
Quoting 164. mobhurricane2011:

Wish we could get an inch or so on the gulf coast, but I'm not expecting that to happen although it would be nice
It will probably be cold enough for snow down here. Whether or not moisture is also available in sufficient quantities for any actual white stuff remains to be seen. It should be an interesting system regardless.


The GFS long term wants to bring lows below freezing here for most of next week, with multiple hard freezes. Sure the guidance might change, but this is a pretty strong signal. It looks like the worst of winter in Florida may be arriving next week assuming this trend continues.
Let us hope snow but not ice. This could get interesting...

Quoting 155. Drakoen:

GFS 00z out to 108hr has a nice snowstorm for central and eastern SC and NC.
ECMWF 00z major snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on the 10th.

Quoting 160. guygee:

I absolutely agree. Along with many others on this blog, I took a strong stand against Senator Santorum's attempts to privatize the NWS. Then, there were outrageous incidents of NWS employees being fired for making scholarly presentations at climate research conferences. I stand on the side of the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center on QuickSCAT and potential follow-up missions and support EOS in general. I even interviewed for a job working on GOES-R, but it did not come to pass, as I mentioned on this blog. I support the mission and funding for NOAA and the NWS. We all need to do that, because unlike Australia, the weather service is not written into the US Constitution. We absolutely need to support NOAA and the NWS or it can be taken away from the people.


Agreed, and Rick Santorum is crazy, like Donald trump crazy, but in a different way. He also is against contraceptives and wants to deregulate mercury and is against a lot of other important environmental regulations that are no brainers.

Quoting 158. BaltimoreBrian:

Pretty cold for 1 p.m.




Yeah highs barely above freezing here doesn't happen very often, GFS 925 mb winds look to be very strong and gusty to boot.
Quoting 156. KoritheMan:

I disagree. I think that if nothing happens, the parameters weren't adequate - even if they were seemingly so at first glance. Otherwise something would happen. :P

It really just attests to our still quasi-primitive meteorological knowledge.


Of course, things don't happen by magic, but I'm just referring to certain numerical value ranges for important known parameters. The numbers for a lot of these important parameters were pretty impressive today as forecast, but overall severe activity was pretty isolated.

Could one of let Sar know he may have a band of bad weather approaching. Might not be till early am, though. He has me on ignore, but from looking at the lightning map, ole radar dog must not have his sensor on. Thanks
GFS 00z was close, at least the ECMWF and GFS agree on some sort of Miller B type system next week with the ECMWF being much more amplified.

GFS 00z:

Just an update. The squall line is just poking along. That's not good news for far western AL in the Tuscaloosa area. They've had enough rain to cause street flooding and the usual ditches to overflow. That area is getting training storms, and it's really the only area of Alabama getting significant weather right now. The little cells that went through here about 11:00 turned into bigger cells near and north of Columbus GA, but still no lightning. There's plenty of lighting in the storms from about Tuscaloosa up through Birmingham though. I'm in kind of dry slot now, just cloudy and a little breezy, but still not the winds that were expected by this time. Kind of a strange pattern up till now.
Whoops : sea ice is collapsing, especially in the Barents Sea. Make your bets : mine is that 2016 we'll be worse than 2012 when it comes to summer sea ice extent in the Arctic. In fact, although the sea ice is in far worse shape than it was before 2012, we never know in advance what the score will be, but I think 3 years of record heat worldwide are gonna help set a new record low extent/volume this year or the next. I would be surprised if the average summer minimum sea ice extent was to remain near 4 millions sq. km until 2020 (which is a bit lower than the last ten years average, roughly around 4.5-5.5 millions square km). I think the average for the next 4 years could be more around 2-3 millions sq. km (summer sea ice minimum).


(light blue line shows the 1979-2000 average)

- Arctic's regional anomaly is 2.07 degrees Celsius above average today (1979-2000 average) :
Quoting 172. Jedkins01:



Of course, things don't happen by magic, but I'm just referring to certain numerical value ranges for important known parameters. The numbers for a lot of these important parameters were pretty impressive today as forecast, but overall severe activity was pretty isolated.


The trouble with trying to get down to mesoscale details is that all the parameters can be present and we still don't get a significant number of tornadoes. So much depends on things like local heating (or the lack of it), where the strongest winds go, the exact direction of the wind compared to storms that do form, how strong a cap is present and when will it break down...the list goes on and on. One of the things I've learned over the years is that models become unimportant when the storms are within eight hours. They can't get mesoscale details right anyway, so they serve as a more of a distraction than a help. Just watch the weather and observations upstream, look at radar and satellite, and maybe balloon soundings if they are less than six hours old. That's going to give you a lot better information about your risks and what kind of storms to expect than even a small scale model like the HRRR. Nothing beats old fashioned weather observing at this point. BTW, the temperature is up two degrees in the last hour, winds have veered to the south and gusty up to 15 mph, and barometer is down to 29.88 from 29.93. Hmmm....
Quoting 70. NativeSun:

I highly doubt that, how much do you think the Earth will warm in 4 years?

I presume you're asking about surface temperatures. That's a little hard to predict on such a short time scale. But rest assured the heat energy will continue to build up in the Earth system at a fairly steady rate and surface temperatures will mostly reflect the balance of the heat energy between the atmosphere and oceans. Sometimes a little more is going into the oceans and sometimes a little less. Since the oceans have something like 1000 times the heat capacity of the atmosphere it doesn't take much change to have a large effect on the atmosphere. The only other relatively normal thing that might affect the heat buildup is a major volcanic eruption.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
357 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Active weather will prevail over the next 24 hours. The main concern
for today is the threat for isolated severe storms and heavy
rainfall as a strong cold front moves into the region. The latest
guidance is a little slower with the overall progression of the
system, which raises some concerns for some heavier rainfall
amounts. Some ingredients for localized heavy rainfall are forecast
to come into place. Precipitable water values are forecast to reach
1.80" at TLH on the 00Z GFS by the end of the day, which is the near
record value for February. In addition, the large convective band
ahead of the cold front is forecast to take on an orientation more
parallel to the mean winds, which would favor training convection.
Some of the hi-res guidance slows down the convective band`s
eastward progress once it gets into southern Georgia, and this will
have to be monitored closely. Current flash flood guidance values
are generally a little over 4 inches in 6 hours across a good
portion of southern Georgia with higher values across most of
Florida. Urban areas such as Tallahassee and Albany have lower
values, especially around Albany where just under 3 inches in 6
hours could cause some localized flooding there. Due to the expected
isolated nature of the flash flooding threat at this time, a watch
does not yet appear necessary.

In terms of severe weather chances, not much has changed. The SPC
day 1 outlook maintains a marginal risk of severe storms over the
area. One thing working against a higher risk is the expectation
that the low level jet will be lifting north of the area and
weakening some through the day today. Nevertheless, there is still
enough instability and shear for a low end threat of severe weather,
including even an isolated, brief tornado along any mesovortices
that spin up along the main squall line.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 AM CST WED FEB 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 030908Z - 031115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BROKEN SQLN IN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STRONG LOW-LVL SHEAR
OVER NE AL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN AND NRN GA
THROUGH LATER THIS MRNG...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING A WW IN THE NEXT
HOUR.

DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED...SSW-NNE-ORIENTED SQLN IN NE AL SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING ENE AT ABUT 35 KTS...WHILE EMBEDDED STORMS MOVE NNE
ALONG THE LINE AT A SOMEWHAT GREATER SPEED. DEEP WIND FIELD
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MIDDAY AS
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SQLN ADVANCES FARTHER N
ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN CURRENT STRENGTH OF LOW
TO MID-LVL WIND FIELD OVER GA...WITH 60+ KT 850-500 MB FLOW PER
ATLANTA VWP...WINDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN AMPLY STRONG TO SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL SUSTAINED/ROTATING STORMS DESPITE GRADUAL WEAKENING.
COUPLED WITH SIZABLE LOW-LVL VEERING COMPONENT TO THE FLOW /PERHAPS
AUGMENTED ALONG REMNANT WEDGE-TYPE BOUNDARY ALONG THE SRN FOOTHILLS
OF THE APPALACHIANS/...AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
F...SETUP COULD POSE A RISK FOR SPORADIC LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND/OR A
TORNADO. PRESENCE OF EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES IN ERN AL ATTM FURTHER
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION AND A RISK FOR
OCCASIONAL SVR WX...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR.

..CORFIDI/DIAL.. 02/03/2016


ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...
A few among you might remember that about 3-4 days ago I put a story on this blog about a cargo ship that went adrift in the Bay of Biscay because of the weather, namely strong waves that made the cargo shift, and the end of this story is rather funny. The weather has improved and the ship's finally under tow, but the funny thing is, it was discovered that the ship was loaded with illegal cargo, probably wood harvested and shipped from the African equatorial forests by intl. traffickers. Here is the Link to the Maritime News article.
Have a good day y'all, stay safe from tornadoes and mighty rivers too.
___
it's very interesting, the way El Nino's experiencing some kind of "rebound" since mid-January, notably in and around the 3.4 region. I don't know what to think. Maybe El Nino could stay till summer?

( right-click the image and copy-paste the link in a new window if the animation doesn't work )
Quoting 135. RobertWC:

120. guygee -

Excellent point

Storms vs. terror: More Americans killed in weekend blizzard than Islamic extremist attacks in 14 years after 9/11

Peter Bergen's new book, who interviewed Osama in a cave long before Ted Cruz ever heard of him said this on CBS this morning -

"You have 5000 percent chance of being shot and killed with a hand gun by a fellow American over being killed by a Islamic extremist "




How Likely Are You to Die from Gun Violence? This Interesting Chart Puts It in Perspective:
You are more likely to be killed by a gun than “walking,” choking or falling down the stairs. You are least likely to be killed by an asteroid impact (74,817,414 to 1), fireworks (50,729,141 to 1) or a bee sting (25,364,571 to 1).
Quoting 94. wartsttocs:



Wanna bet?

"I, Mark Boslough, being of sound mind, do hereby challenge any individual or organization to a $25,000 bet that global warming is real and will continue. If the climatological average global land surface temperature goes up again in 2016, setting another new record, the party that accepts my challenge must donate $25,000 to a science education nonprofit of my choice. If not, I will donate $25,000 to a nonprofit designated by the accepting party.

Details are below. But it doesn't matter. It's a sucker bet. Everyone knows that global warming is real.

Those who reject mainstream climate science have a bully problem. They talk big. They harass and threaten scientists. They publish angry anti-science blogs and vitriolic editorials. Deniers with political power issue subpoenas, file investigative demands, and even hold kangaroo hearings. The lightweights write anti-science letters to the editor of local newspapers, tweet insults, swarm people on social media, and send hate mail.

They all claim with utter certainty that there is no possibility of serious risk from human-caused global warming. Yet when it comes to taking a personal risk to prove they mean it, they back down. Like all bullies, they are cowards."

Link


Hi Warts, I never said the Earth will not keep warming, just not at the apocalyptic rate that Keep was writing about. With the dying, top 3 Nino event, a warm, but declining PDO, and a still warm AMO, of course the temps will rise this year. When everything reverses, a cold AMO, PDO, and a Super La Nina, then will see, but I doubt that bet will still be their.
Quoting 178. riverat544:


I presume you're asking about surface temperatures. That's a little hard to predict on such a short time scale. But rest assured the heat energy will continue to build up in the Earth system at a fairly steady rate and surface temperatures will mostly reflect the balance of the heat energy between the atmosphere and oceans. Sometimes a little more is going into the oceans and sometimes a little less. Since the oceans have something like 1000 times the heat capacity of the atmosphere it doesn't take much change to have a large effect on the atmosphere. The only other relatively normal thing that might affect the heat buildup is a major volcanic eruption.
Or a cooling of the oceans, after all it is the oceans that drive the temps.
we.got.black.mosquitos...e.cen.fl
One of the largest federal sponsors for academic research doesn’t report how many funding requests are rejected for skyrocketing misconduct like plagiarism and faked data.
The National Science Foundation (NSF) awards about $7 billion for research annually, but an agency report on the foundation’s merit review process doesn’t mention “plagiarism” or “misconduct” – problems that have increased tenfold since 2004, according to NSF’s inspector general.
“NSF declines approximately 37,000 – 40,000 proposals per year,” according the report.
“You will need to submit a FOIA request for more specific information than what’s contained there,” NSF spokeswoman Jessica Arriens told The Daily Caller News Foundation.
Such information is critical since NSF’s watchdog estimates that 1,200 proposals contain plagiarism and another 800 proposals or results include “falsified or fabricated data,” according to the IG’s semiannual report.
NSF grants account “for about one-fourth of federal support to academic institutions for basic research,” Arriens previously told TheDCNF. The foundation awards 11,000 grants to 2,000 research institutions, according to the IG.
Additionally, research misconduct has increased from two findings in 2004 to 20 in 2014, according to the IG’s semiannual report. Just one 2015 investigation resulted in a total of 28 years in prison for two scientists who stole $10.6 million in grants from NSF and six other agencies.
“OIG does suspect that a significant amount of research misconduct goes undetected,” though there’s no exact statistics, IG Chief of Staff Susan Carnohan previously told TheDCNF.
This isn’t a new problem for NSF. Inspector General Allison Lerner estimated in 2013 that “1,300 proposals contain plagiarism and 450 to 900 could contain problematic data.”
Catching such issues before awarding grants is critical since the watchdog can only audit about 1 percent of the NSF-funded research institutes.
Yet, NSF’s proposal review process is internationally “considered the gold standard” according to an agency video.
Meanwhile, NSF has faced criticism for projects the agency has funded, like two experiments that ran shrimp on a treadmill for $1.3 million.
Just sayin!
Quoting 185. NativeSun:

Or a cooling of the oceans, after all it is the oceans that drive the temps.
No. That's like saying it's the ice cubes in your freezer that cool your house in the summer. The oceans are vast storehouses of heat; when there's an excess amount of solar heat due to more entering the atmosphere than is being allowed to leave due to greenhouse gases, much of it gets stored in the oceans. Natural cycles--El Nino the best example--sometimes allow some of that heat to escape back to the atmosphere. But the heat itself is coming from outside.
Punxsutawney Phil’s Predictions Won’t Matter Much If The Earth Keeps Warming Like It Is

[...]



[...]

Somewhere in Pennsylvania: Punxsutawney Phil saw the shadow of unrestricted fossil-fuel pollution from Homo “sapiens” today. That means global warming for another six thousand weeks — and then some (see NOAA: Climate change “largely irreversible for 1000 years”).

If the world keeps listening to the siren song of delay from the anti-science, pro-pollution crowd and their enablers, then eventually people aren’t going to go through this elaborate charade of wondering whether some large rodent in Pennsylvania can predict the weather. The forecast will always be the same: “bloody hot.” In PNNL’s worst-case scenario — where we keep taking little action to reduce carbon pollution (the RCP8.5 scenario) — the rate of warming post-2050 becomes so fast that it is likely to be beyond adaptation for most species, including marmota monax and homo “sapiens” in large parts of the world. The mean global warming rate in this scenario hits a stunning 1°F per decade, and Arctic warming would presumably be at least 2°F per decade. And this goes on for decades.

If we get anywhere near that outcome, I seriously doubt anybody is going to care about what Punxsutawney Phil thinks about whether it’s going to be an early spring or not.

Complete blog post >>

_______________

Also => Groundhog Decade: We’re Stuck In A Movie Where It’s Always the Hottest Decade On Record

Quoting 187. trunkmonkey:

[...]
Just sayin!

Just saying that you've fallen into a trap of opposing government funding for basic research. The "shrimp on treadmill" meme is false, it was only a small part of a project studying economically important ocean species that make up a large part of our food resources. For a little more balance, read this report:
'Shrimp On A Treadmill': The Politics Of 'Silly' Studies
A nasty looking squall line is approaching Sar's location:

Quoting 182. 999Ai2016:

A few among you might remember that about 3-4 days ago I put a story on this blog about a cargo ship that went adrift in the Bay of Biscay because of the weather, namely strong waves that made the cargo shift, and the end of this story is rather funny. The weather has improved and the ship's finally under tow, but the funny thing is, it was discovered that the ship was loaded with illegal cargo, probably wood harvested and shipped from the African equatorial forests by intl. traffickers. Here is the Link to the Maritime News article.
Have a good day y'all, stay safe from tornadoes and mighty rivers too.
___
it's very interesting, the way El Nino's experiencing some kind of "rebound" since mid-January, notably in and around the 3.4 region. I don't know what to think. Maybe El Nino could stay till summer?

( right-click the image and copy-paste the link in a new window if the animation doesn't work )



There has been a pretty significant shift upwards in the ENSO on this February update more notably the BOM Aussie model which had La-Nina back in January has moved up a good bit to now dead neutral. Remember it was the CFSv2 who jumped all over this El-Nino back this time last year only to have the rest of the models follow in the following months. Typically a El-Nino of this magnitude would transition to La-Nina that next Summer however there is something strange going on right now which many blog members on here refuse to see these signs as was the case on here last year. I think the PDO staying positive like it has and the AMO refusing to flip is helping initiate Kelvin Wave after Kelvin Wave and continued WWB. To me I think we are exactly where we were back in the early 1990's ENSO.

I mean Just look at this graph below and those thinking that La-Nina is coming this year will sure change their minds infact we may never dip below El-Nino status this year.

WWB


This precip layout on the CFSv2 for Fall screams El-Nino.

Quoting 192. guygee:

Just saying that you've fallen into a trap of opposing government funding for basic research. The "shrimp on treadmill" meme is false, it was only a small part of a project studying economically important ocean species that make up a large part of our food resources. For a little more balance, read this report:
'Shrimp On A Treadmill': The Politics Of 'Silly' Studies
When one acquires a political stance like [redacted], they will cherry-pick any seemingly silly study and use it to make the 'other guy' look bad. Society has a huge problem in team politics and politicians only want to fan the flames. There is a lack of introspection and self-critique that is leading the world to ruin.
Good Morning; Conus forecast for today and the storm reports from yesterday; calmer today in
terms of no significant tornado threat but flooding rains on the horizon.




Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
155 AM EST Wed Feb 3 2016

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 3 2016 - 12Z Fri Feb 5 2016

...Strong storm system will affect the eastern U.S. Wednesday...

...Rain and mountain snow for the northwestern states...

The weather across the eastern U.S. will be quite active going through
Wednesday night as a plethora of deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
surges northward ahead of a strong cold front. Widespread moderate to
heavy rainfall can be expected from the central Gulf Coast to Ohio, and
extending eastward towards the East Coast. Rainfall amounts could exceed
two inches for many areas across the Southeast U.S. by Thursday morning,
and localized flash flooding is possible where convective activity
persists over any given location. The severe weather threat should
diminish on Wednesday compared to what was observed on Tuesday, but there
will likely be some scattered strong to severe storms. The main concern
will be the heavy rainfall. The snow that has been ongoing over the Upper
Midwest will now be focused over Wisconsin and northern Michigan.


yesterday Reports Graphic
All the heavy rain pushing east:


And finally, the current doppler loops:
Northeast sector loopSoutheast sector loop

Quoting 171. Jedkins01:



Yeah highs barely above freezing here doesn't happen very often, GFS 925 mb winds look to be very strong and gusty to boot.


Quoting 171. Jedkins01:



Yeah highs barely above freezing here doesn't happen very often, GFS 925 mb winds look to be very strong and gusty to boot.


Temps in the upper 30s for So Fla on the 11th? I'm game. The forecast temps have started dropping into the lower 50's on those days so hopefully this will continue. Though I'm sure Florida orange growers will be none too pleased.
Quoting 193. tampabaymatt:

A nasty looking squall line is approaching Sar's location:


Sitting here now as the first part of the squall line moves in. So far, it's been really, really...not too exciting. A few 15 mph winds and some rain that's still not enough to tip the bucket. I'll report back when the all clear sounds. :-)
Quoting 164. mobhurricane2011:

Wish we could get an inch or so on the gulf coast, but I'm not expecting that to happen although it would be nice


Winter 1972-73. DC metro got 0.1" of snow total. New Orleans had two 1" snow events.

Quoting 116. guygee:

Sleet is the least. Heavy ice storm clings to power lines, causing widespead power outages. Very heavy wet snow brings down 100-year old pine trees, crashing on houses and power lines. Give me sleet over those other two anytime. In any case, beware treacherous road conditions. Extra clothing, blankets and other emergency items are as critical for blizzard chasers in their "blizzard kit" as the here-much-ballyhooed "hurricane kit" is for hurricane chasers as well as for the non-voluntary hurricane participants. Just common sense.


Actually common sense would be not to chase a blizzard in the first place.
Quoting 177. sar2401:

The trouble with trying to get down to mesoscale details is that all the parameters can be present and we still don't get a significant number of tornadoes. So much depends on things like local heating (or the lack of it), where the strongest winds go, the exact direction of the wind compared to storms that do form, how strong a cap is present and when will it break down...the list goes on and on. One of the things I've learned over the years is that models become unimportant when the storms are within eight hours. They can't get mesoscale details right anyway, so they serve as a more of a distraction than a help. Just watch the weather and observations upstream, look at radar and satellite, and maybe balloon soundings if they are less than six hours old. That's going to give you a lot better information about your risks and what kind of storms to expect than even a small scale model like the HRRR. Nothing beats old fashioned weather observing at this point. BTW, the temperature is up two degrees in the last hour, winds have veered to the south and gusty up to 15 mph, and barometer is down to 29.88 from 29.93. Hmmm....


Makes me wish I was a graduate student again to go after some of these problems.
Looks like a narrow short-lived squall band at the moment across the SE with some strong gusts/rain during the passage then the regular rain behind it; headed towards me in Tallahassee in a little bit. Will report if I see any small animals or lawn chairs-garbage can lids flying through the air...........................
Quoting 200. ElConando:





Temps in the upper 30s for So Fla on the 11th? I'm game. The forecast temps have started dropping into the lower 50's on those days so hopefully this will continue. Though I'm sure Florida orange growers will be none too pleased.


One of the paradoxical problems of growing citrus in Florida is that the winters are often warm enough that trees don't go fully dormant and are more vulnerable to cold. California citrus usually does go into full dormancy.

In the Mid Atlantic I get plenty of cold and I don't worry until temps get to below about 25F for fruit or 20F for the trees once fruit is harvested. Then I have to bring them in. My methods are not new.. they've been used by wealthy people (unlike me..) in Britain and Northern France since the 17'th century. In most of the U.S. though including the FL panhandle temps below 20F are regular and trees in the ground will be killed.

My problem with oranges is that I can't get enough heat to get good flavor though some years the cold makes for a very sweet AND acid fruit I can't buy anywhere else. Some years though the "sweet" is lacking. My lemons though beat what I can buy.



from the NWS enso discussion...........

Synopsis: A strong El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer.
from the IRC enso forcast

My patented ten minute squall line has passed through. We had insane rain for five minutes of it...maybe. Did get 1.02" out of the the line in less than 45 minutes, so it was fast enough to get my temporary yard lakes up again. There was one 20 mph wind gust and it got really dark...for about two minutes. One lightning strike and clap of thunder that got Radar dog rocketing under the desk. The barometer went for 29.84 to 29.90 in less that fifteen minutes, one of the faster rises that I've seen. There is rain behind the line, so I might get an inch and a quarter out of this, a respectable, if not insane, amount. Overall, a few interesting aspects to a line that was a bit less than advertised.

As I wrote several days ago, when the excitement level for this system was higher, one of the options for this one was to fall apart before it got to me. That's pretty much what happened. Every key ingredient was in place for a good outbreak except for two - instability and lapse rate. The poor lapse rate and instability ratios have been shown in balloon sounding over the last 24 hours. For some reason, the models didn't seem to pick up on that, or assumed the fast LLJ and dewpoints in the upper 60's would be enough to overcome those deficits. It almost never is, and demonstrated that again this morning. When looking at the next five, seven, or {gasp!} ten day models, keep this inability of models to get into the fine details in mind. I know those addicted to posting DOOM! headlines won't, but maybe others will look with a little more of a jaundiced eye at those models.
Record shattering heat wave today in northern Ohio and northwest PA.

Already, records set at Mansfield and Toledo. Hit 56 in Mansfield already, shattering the previous record of 53 from 1991. Toledo was up to 55 earlier, breaking the record of 54 set way back in 1890.

Cleveland, Erie, Akron/Canton, and Youngstown are all within 1 or 2 degrees of current records - all dating to 1890 or 1991. Should easily break those as temps climb to near 60 today.
211. MahFL
Quoting 200. ElConando:





Temps in the upper 30s for So Fla on the 11th? I'm game. The forecast temps have started dropping into the lower 50's on those days so hopefully this will continue. Though I'm sure Florida orange growers will be none too pleased.


30's are not a problem for orange trees, you have to get down to 25 for several days to be a real concern.
from the aussie mets.....

BOM AustraliaVerified account ‏@BOM_au Feb 1
ENSO Wrap-Up: #ElNino remains strong, but continues its gradual decline http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Quoting 124. guygee:

When you are driving in an ice storm, sometimes the ice sticks to your windshield no matter how hard your defrosters and wipers are working. I experienced this once on the NY Turnpike. This happened when the surface temperature was around 20F but it was raining. Many people pulled over and stopped, and the rest of us kept plodding at below 30 MPH. If we had been in hill country, we were all done.


For european readers. U.S. definition of sleet is small ice pellets that originate when raindrops freeze. In Europe, sleet is a mixture of rain and snow. We're describing the U.S. phenomenon.

When I was younger one of the toughest forecast problems I found was determining whether ptype would be ice pellets or freezing rain. Freezing rain supercools and freezes on contact. Ice pellets freeze on the way down. You have to get the depth of the freezing layer right (easy) and there are issues with the microphysics of the supercooled drops (hard). In general ice pellets occur with deeper freezing layers and freezing rain with shallower (and often colder) freezing layers. Intense shallow arctic outbreaks often set up freezing rain disasters in the South and Midwest. In the Mid Atlantic our worst ice events happen with cold air damming with air masses not as cold as needed for midwest ice stroms.

BTW I am NOT, repeat NOT a professional forecaster
Quoting 204. georgevandenberghe:



Makes me wish I was a graduate student again to go after some of these problems.
I think mesoscale details in models are a good example of 10% of the job requiring 90% of the effort. You and I both remember 20 years ago, when models getting even the general situation and timing right was a big victory. Since models are now available to anyone, including those who really have no idea what they're looking at, there's an expectation that what a model shows is actual reality. Things like how strong a squall line will be when it gets to you or exactly what part of an island a hurricane will hit are not reality. They never were, but I now read blogs bemoaning the fact "the models didn't get it right". Actually, they did, just not at a level of detail that "think" we have available today. The storm system that is now moving through here was accurately predicted five days ago. Timing was a little too fast, and the amount of severe storms was less than what was shown on a couple of runs, but those are the kinds of things we have to expect with the technology available today. Maybe tomorrow's grad students will solve these problems. I hope that's the case, but I also hope they aren't holding their breath. :-)


Quoting 209. sar2401:

My patented ten minute squall line has passed through. We had insane rain for five minutes of it...maybe. Did get 1.02" out of the the line in less than 45 minutes, so it was fast enough to get my temporary yard lakes up again. There was one 20 mph wind gust and it got really dark...for about two minutes. One lightning strike and clap of thunder that got Radar dog rocketing under the desk. The barometer went for 29.84 to 29.90 in less that fifteen minutes, one of the faster rises that I've seen. There is rain behind the line, so I might get an inch and a quarter out of this, a respectable, if not insane, amount. Overall, a few interesting aspects to a line that was a bit less than advertised.

As I wrote several days ago, when the excitement level for this system was higher, one of the options for this one was to fall apart before it got to me. That's pretty much what happened. Every key ingredient was in place for a good outbreak except for two - instability and lapse rate. The poor lapse rate and instability ratios have been shown in balloon sounding over the last 24 hours. For some reason, the models didn't seem to pick up on that, or assumed the fast LLJ and dewpoints in the upper 60's would be enough to overcome those deficits. It almost never is, and demonstrated that again this morning. When looking at the next five, seven, or {gasp!} ten day models, keep this inability of models to get into the fine details. I know those addicted to posting DOOM! headlines won't, but maybe others will look with a little more of a jaundiced eye at those models.


One of my most intense floods around my house (filled the back stairwell.. sliding glass door looked like an aquarium!) occurred when I got 0.75" in five minutes in 2003. Storm total was less than an inch.
Good Morning all..

Superbowl week here in NC..Panthers winning it all!!

Just dropping in to post my NWS, Wilmington, NC discussion about the rainfall expected.

WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WE WILL RECEIVE.
THE COLUMN WILL BECOME SATURATED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING NEAR 1.8 INCHES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CERTAINLY ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA UNTIL 3- 5 AM THU MORNING. IT WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THU. THIS WILL ALLOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL DRAW DEEP GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH THU NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS MAY BE AT LEAST LOCALLY HIGHER. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WILL CREATE SATURATED SOILS AND THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OR EVEN MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. GENERAL RIVER
FLOODING IS MOST CERTAINLY EXPECTED TO FOLLOW IN THE COMING DAYS
SHOULD WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE FALL ACROSS
THE RIVER BASINS.

Later..

Quoting 210. ClimateChange:

Record shattering heat wave today in northern Ohio and northwest PA.

Already, records set at Mansfield and Toledo. Hit 56 in Mansfield already, shattering the previous record of 53 from 1991. Toledo was up to 55 earlier, breaking the record of 54 set way back in 1890.

Cleveland, Erie, Akron/Canton, and Youngstown are all within 1 or 2 degrees of current records - all dating to 1890 or 1991. Should easily break those as temps climb to near 60 today.
That warm Gulf air has really pushed north as the low has advanced into Canada. Cleveland has already had an exceptionally warm winter, with many records broken in December. In my 21 years in Cleveland, this kind of warm winter happened once, in 1955, and it was great. I could go outside without a jacket - in January! It's the best of both worlds for some of my younger relatives still living there. Mild weather in Cleveland but plenty of snow in the West Virginia mountains for skiing. I have not heard the usual crying and moaning about winter from them this year. :-)
our second favorite enso model............


219. JRRP
Quoting 218. ricderr:

our second favorite enso model............




lol you win
Quoting 217. sar2401:

That warm Gulf air has really pushed north as the low has advanced into Canada. Cleveland has already had an exceptionally warm winter, with many records broken in December. In my 21 years in Cleveland, this kind of warm winter happened once, in 1955, and it was great. I could go outside without a jacket - in January! It's the best of both worlds for some of my younger relatives still living there. Mild weather in Cleveland but plenty of snow in the West Virginia mountains for skiing. I have not heard the usual crying and moaning about winter from them this year. :-)


Son has an outdoor hockey tournament NEXT weekend near Toledo. Expecting arctic cold, temps in the teens on the rink.

This happened in 2012 too, an otherwise warm winter.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
848 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
GENEVA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
SOUTHWESTERN DALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 915 AM CST

* AT 848 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SAMSON...OR
NEAR GENEVA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DALEVILLE...GENEVA...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER...HARTFORD...
LEVEL PLAINS...SLOCOMB...SAMSON...NEWTON...PINCKARD...MA LVERN...
CLAYHATCHEE...ESTO...COFFEE SPRINGS...BLACK...SOMERSET...BATTENS
CROSSROADS...WATERFORD AND CENTRAL
Nc, wind really gusting here now. Some sunshine adding to instability. Working from home today and I wouldn't be surprised to see some severe storms this afternoon. All this heading towards you. Enjoy the game.

Quoting 216. ncstorm:

Good Morning all..

Superbowl week here in NC..Panthers winning it all!!

Just dropping in to post my NWS, Wilmington, NC discussion about the rainfall expected.

WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WE WILL RECEIVE.
THE COLUMN WILL BECOME SATURATED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING NEAR 1.8 INCHES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CERTAINLY ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA UNTIL 3- 5 AM THU MORNING. IT WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THU. THIS WILL ALLOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL DRAW DEEP GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH THU NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS MAY BE AT LEAST LOCALLY HIGHER. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WILL CREATE SATURATED SOILS AND THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OR EVEN MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. GENERAL RIVER
FLOODING IS MOST CERTAINLY EXPECTED TO FOLLOW IN THE COMING DAYS
SHOULD WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE FALL ACROSS
THE RIVER BASINS.

Later..


Quoting 215. georgevandenberghe:





One of my most intense floods around my house (filled the back stairwell.. sliding glass door looked like an aquarium!) occurred when I got 0.75" in five minutes in 2003. Storm total was less than an inch.
The rain rate was definately the best part of the line. It's done a little stall over me now, and it's still coming down. Up to 1.46" now, so my earlier forecast was a little wrong. My new, revised forecast is two inches. The one characteristic of this storm has been the high rain amounts, which makes sense with such a tremendous supply of atmospheric moisture available. There has apparently been four tornadoes, two in MIssissippi and two in Alabama. Some wind damage reports, but
they have almost exclusively been trees down from 40-50 mph winds. Many areas have reported street flooding. All in all, this has been a pretty typical cool season storm that hits here at least a couple of times every year.
Quoting 219. JRRP:


lol you win



nothing to win...it's not like i'm posting things that i took painstaking hours to create or spent years studying....i'm just following and posting what trained professionals are stating
your very own mood lamp


Quoting 220. georgevandenberghe:



Son has an outdoor hockey tournament NEXT weekend near Toledo. Expecting arctic cold, temps in the teens on the rink.

This happened in 2012 too, an otherwise warm winter.
Yes, well, northern Ohio is still northern Ohio, and warm temperatures are always an aberration. Any time it got warm, we enjoyed it while we could, knowing the deep freeze was just round the corner. I guess the analogue is savoring a temperature of 75 after a thunderstorm in summer here, knowing the next day was going right back up to 95 again.
Quoting 195. StormTrackerScott:

This precip layout on the CFSv2 for Fall screams El-Nino.




tone it down please on your EL Nino
Quoting 221. LargoFl:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
848 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
GENEVA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
SOUTHWESTERN DALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 915 AM CST
Canceled in near record time 26 minutes later...
Land anomaly vs ocean anomaly (°C) based on NOAA data:

1950-1960 Land:  -0,10   Ocean: +0,00
1961-1970 Land:  -0,03   Ocean: +0,02
1971-1980 Land: +0,03   Ocean: +0,08
1981-1990 Land: +0,33   Ocean: +0,25
1991-2000 Land: +0,56   Ocean: +0,34
2001-2010 Land: +0,91   Ocean: +0,48

It will take a while before the ocean catches up with Land.
Quoting 187. trunkmonkey:

One of the largest federal sponsors for academic research doesn't report how many funding requests are rejected for skyrocketing misconduct like plagiarism and faked data.
The National Science Foundation (NSF) awards about $7 billion for research annually, but an agency report on the foundation's merit review process doesn't mention plagiarism or misconduct problems that have increased tenfold since 2004, according to NSF's inspector general.
...[deleted]...
Ironically the post cited above is plagiarized without attribution from some rag, "The Daily Caller". I won't give it the dignity of a link, but you can search on the quoted paragraph to find the article. "The Daily Caller" is an infamous anti-science site that also pushes AGW-denialism, see this article, "Scientist Slams Daily Caller For Distorting His Research To Suggest Climate Change Is Fake".
From the Euro.lololol
Link
A break down of the El-Reno tornado of May 31, 2013. It is very educational in tornado formation. Also, documents the loss of life of well known tornado chasers.
Link
First time since the start of the El nino we have no WWB forecast or happening.
Quoting 233. Gearsts:

First time since the start of the El nino we have no WWB forecast or happening.



this EL Nino is a wrap up Scott needs too tone it down on EL nino
Quoting 234. Gearsts:


Sufficient cold air will definitely be in place so that whatever falls will be powdery and not back breaking.I'm waiting on the other models to see what they show.
Quoting 234. Gearsts:





i hop the E coast is getting ready for other major Blizzard
233. Gearsts
10:45 AM EST on February 03, 2016
I know you're probably smiling ear to ear for a potentially interesting hurricane season :).Even if we end up below average Joaquin shows it doesn't take a active season to have a potentially dangerous hurricane effecting someone.If we get strong waves to come off like we did last year but with better conditions the caribbean may have to watch out.
Wow, the temperature just reached 14c. This is quite a contrast to last February here, my average temperature that month was 8f, or 14 degrees below normal.

There is no such thing as an average winter in the lower Great Lakes anymore it seems.
Beautiful weather today. The atmosphere is slightly unstable :)





Link
Quoting 195. StormTrackerScott:

This precip layout on the CFSv2 for Fall screams El-Nino.




LA NINA doesn't bring intersting weather to FL? Looks like you hate LA NINA just like I hate EL NINO :)
This has got to be a fluke..

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx 7m7 minutes ago

12z GFS is significant snow Sunday for NC Coastal Plain/Sandhills. Still marginal sfc temps. Triangle just west of sig snow this run.



Looking over storm reports..

Most rivers/creeks with a gauge on them were hitting flood stage this morning in Henderson and Transylvania Counties in Western North Carolina.

Mississippi has many more flooding issues and worse with stranded cars and water rescues at a campground.

Many Tornado Reports out of Jackson, MS NWS. Here is a few..


0320 PM TORNADO 2 SW COLLINSVILLE 32.48N 88.87W
02/02/2016 LAUDERDALE MS PUBLIC

REPORTS OF DAMAGE TO HOMES...INCLUDING ROOFS BLOWN
OFF...AND MOBILE HOMES FLIPPED NEAR SHARP ROAD AND
HIGHWAY 494. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.

0323 PM TORNADO COLLINSVILLE 32.49N 88.84W
02/02/2016 LAUDERDALE MS EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTS OF DAMAGE IN COLLINSVILLE. FIRST BAPTIST CHURCH
IN COLLINSVILLE HEAVILY DAMAGED ON HWY 19N. BARNS
DAMAGED. TREES DOWN IN THE AREA AND ACROSS ROADS. NEAR
LAKE ROSS.

0323 PM TORNADO 2 SE MARTIN 32.52N 88.82W
02/02/2016 LAUDERDALE MS EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTS OF DAMAGE TO A TRAILER AND HOUSE ACROSS THE ROAD
FROM WEST LAUDERDALE HIGH SCHOOL. ALSO A FIELD HOUSE WAS
DAMAGED AT WEST LAUDERDALE HIGH SCHOOL.


EAST MISSISSIPPI COMMUNITY COLLEGE CAMPUS had some damage due to a tornado.

Many flooding reports, a little hail.

This even affected as far south as Mobile, AL with a large sign falling on a seafood market. Lightning caught a shed on fire and a Red Cross blood donor facility lost some windows and suffered roof damage..

Tennessee had a notable wind event. MORRISTOWN TN NWS reported 78mph winds recorded, a porch lost, many trees down, power outages and flooding.

MEMPHIS TN NWS had a funnel cloud in Henderson and highway closing flooding in Shelby & Tipton. As well as this possible tornado in Crockett with an injury.
2 TRACTOR TRAILERS BLOWN OVER ON HIGHWAY 412 NEAR ALAMO.
6 HOUSES DAMAGED AROUND THE HIGH SCHOOL AS WELL AS THE
HIGH SCHOOL ITSELF...ALL IN OR NEAR ALAMO...HIGHWAY 88
AND EGG HILL ROAD. SEVERAL POWER LINES DAMAGED OR DOWN
AROUND THAT AREA. ONE OF THE TRACTOR TRAILER DRIVERS
INJURED. REPORT CORRECTED AND UPGRADED TO POSSIBLE
TORNADO.

Here is another video from yesterday..
Alabama: Tornado Touches Down In Pickens County

DAHBOO777
Published on Feb 2, 2016
Dramatic video of a tornado in Pickens County, Alabama. 2/2/16
www.undergroundworldnews.com



On the Gas leak in LA saw yesterday local authorities are mounting lawsuits against the gas company this week. Ran across this today..It was published a few days ago.
They may have “lost control entirely of entire field” involved in LA gas disaster, and it’s coming up everywhere… We learned there’s many other leaks -Attorney — Officials: Loud sound of gas escaping heard half mile away; A “mini-Chernobyl” — AP: Leak “out of control”… amount released “seriously underestimated”
It's our turn for El Nino:

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
457 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...

FLZ014>019-026-027-114-115-118-127-GAZ120>131-142 >148-155>161-
040000-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FF.A.0001.160203T0957Z-160204T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
INLAND GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-
LIBERTY-INLAND WAKULLA-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-
COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-
TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-
MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMIN OLE-DECATUR-
GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITE CITY...PORT ST. JOE...
WEWAHITCHKA...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY. ..
CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO...
MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...S T. MARKS...
GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...
MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESB URG...
SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON...FITZG ERALD...OCILLA...
DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMI LLA...PELHAM...
MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS...NASHVILLE...DONALSONVI LLE...
BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE...QUITMAN...VALD OSTA...LAKELAND
457 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 /357 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. URBAN AREAS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS NEAR
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS MAY SEE SOME FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

DVD

703
FXUS62 KTAE 031116
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
616 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016


.Prev Discussion [450 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Update...based on some of our latest CAM guidance as well as the
new WPC excessive rainfall outlook which highlights a moderate
risk of excessive rainfall over a large portion of the forecast
area, we have decided to go ahead with a flash flood watch which
covers a large portion of the area. The western part of the watch
is set to end early this evening as the main line of storms pushes
off to the east. As noted in our previous discussion, WPC also
notes the record or near record deep layer moisture ahead of this
system. There has also been a tendency for the global models to be
underdone with their QPF values, and some flash flooding has been
reported upstream with this system back in portions of MS and AL.
The greatest area of concern within the watch is across portions
of southern Georgia around the Albany area, which has the lowest
flash flood guidance values. In addition, as mentioned previously
in the hydrology section, areas around the Kinchafoonee and
Muckalee Creeks could approach flood stage if around 2.5 inches of
rain falls there, which now appears more plausible given the
latest guidance.

Active weather will prevail over the next 24 hours. The main
concern for today is the threat for isolated severe storms and
heavy rainfall as a strong cold front moves into the region. The
latest guidance is a little slower with the overall progression of
the system, which raises some concerns for some heavier rainfall
amounts. Some ingredients for localized heavy rainfall are
forecast to come into place. Precipitable water values are
forecast to reach 1.80" at TLH on the 00z GFS by the end of the
day, which is the near record value for February. In addition, the
large convective band ahead of the cold front is forecast to take
on an orientation more parallel to the mean winds, which would
favor training convection.
Some of the hi-res guidance slows down
the convective band`s eastward progress once it gets into southern
Georgia, and this will have to be monitored closely. Current flash
flood guidance values are generally a little over 4 inches in 6
hours across a good portion of southern Georgia with higher values
across most of Florida. Urban areas such as Tallahassee and Albany
have lower values, especially around Albany where just under 3
inches in 6 hours could cause some localized flooding there.

In terms of severe weather chances, not much has changed. The SPC
day 1 outlook maintains a marginal risk of severe storms over the
area. One thing working against a higher risk is the expectation
that the low level jet will be lifting north of the area and
weakening some through the day today. Nevertheless, there is still
enough instability and shear for a low end threat of severe
weather, including even an isolated, brief tornado along any
mesovortices that spin up along the main squall line.



I'm ready for some drenching later, will be interesting to see just how much we get.
Quoting 237. Tazmanian:




i hop the E coast is getting ready for other major Blizzard


I need to recall my list of four letter words. One is snow but this inspires MANY others.
Quoting 223. sar2401:

The rain rate was definately the best part of the line. It's done a little stall over me now, and it's still coming down. Up to 1.46" now, so my earlier forecast was a little wrong. My new, revised forecast is two inches. The one characteristic of this storm has been the high rain amounts, which makes sense with such a tremendous supply of atmospheric moisture available. There has apparently been four tornadoes, two in MIssissippi and two in Alabama. Some wind damage reports, both they have almost exclusively been trees down from 40-50 mph winds. Many areas have reported street flooding. All in all, this has been a pretty typical cool season storm that hits here at least a couple of times every year.


Yeah PW levels are near or at record levels, and low level moisture convergence is also very impressive just out ahead of the line.
NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 31m31 minutes ago
The #RGEM spreads #Snow up and down I-95 on #Friday.
Quoting 248. washingtonian115:

NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 31m31 minutes ago
The #RGEM spreads #Snow up and down I-95 on #Friday.

GEOS-5 has been showing that too, along the coast..
Quoting 248. washingtonian115:

NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 31m31 minutes ago
The #RGEM spreads #Snow up and down I-95 on #Friday.


Still east of us. Still time to trend west where better forcing will be.

Jed, you think the dynamics are in place for such a cold snap to come that far South next week? Sub 40 degree temps haven't happened since winter of 2013-14 Dade.
Quoting 251. ElConando:

Jed, you think the dynamics are in place for such a cold snap to come that far South next week? Sub 40 degree temps haven't happened since winter of 2013-14 Dade.


It'll probably hit after I leave since I would enjoy that.
249. Skyepony (Mod)
250. Drakoen

Could see a few flurries. guess we'll see how the front behaves.
Quoting 206. georgevandenberghe:



One of the paradoxical problems of growing citrus in Florida is that the winters are often warm enough that trees don't go fully dormant and are more vulnerable to cold. California citrus usually does go into full dormancy.

In the Mid Atlantic I get plenty of cold and I don't worry until temps get to below about 25F for fruit or 20F for the trees once fruit is harvested. Then I have to bring them in. My methods are not new.. they've been used by wealthy people (unlike me..) in Britain and Northern France since the 17'th century. In most of the U.S. though including the FL panhandle temps below 20F are regular and trees in the ground will be killed.

My problem with oranges is that I can't get enough heat to get good flavor though some years the cold makes for a very sweet AND acid fruit I can't buy anywhere else. Some years though the "sweet" is lacking. My lemons though beat what I can buy.




grafting onto trifoliate orange stock imparts some cold-hardiness but still have to bring them in up here in the mid-Atlantic (the actual trifoliate orange itself is barely edible, if even. It will grow in zone 5. I have one in my yard, although it's years from actually fruiting.)
Quoting 184. NativeSun:

Hi Warts, I never said the Earth will not keep warming, just not at the apocalyptic rate that Keep was writing about. With the dying, top 3 Nino event, a warm, but declining PDO, and a still warm AMO, of course the temps will rise this year. When everything reverses, a cold AMO, PDO, and a Super La Nina, then will see, but I doubt that bet will still be their.


I've still yet to see your explanation of why this el nino resulted in warmer global temperatures than the previous. Or, for that matter, how previous la nina's influence on global temperature eclipsed previous el ninos.



Better yet, why is the planet warming if we remove the effects of ENSO from the data?

256. MahFL
Lake Shasta, CA rose another 1% :

53% of Total Capacity
78% of Historical Avg. For This Date
When some run with ideology before Science, talking Science to them is like talking in Klingon.

It just dosen't matter what any single Human believes, what matters is the Science.

It stays above the din.

Always.
Quoting 257. Patrap:

When some run with ideology before Science, talking Science to them is like talking in Klingon.

It just dosen't matter what any single Human believes, what matters is the Science.

It stays above the din.

Always.


Not going to post quotes (long article) but a good one on where all the political candidates stand on science issues:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/02/science-ca mpaign-trail-where-presidential-candidates-stand

Science on the campaign trail: Where the presidential candidates stand

I could care less what any Pol thinks as to AGW.

If I did, I'd look at the 2 Party Leaders....

Ryan vs Obama.

And I know where the first Guy's stand is.

Lunacy doesn't draw a Big science Vote in my view


We independents are like dat.

Quoting 203. georgevandenberghe:



Actually common sense would be not to chase a blizzard in the first place.
Maybe it is not even snowing but only very cold, and you end up in a ditch on a lonely country road. Good to have an emergency kit for being stranded in the cold, just as we have emergency kits for hurricanes.
All the good and experienced Chasers, be it nado, Cane, other..all have First Aid Gear. Some even carry Defibrillators and backboards, splints, and trauma gear too.


If you chase, one day you will come across the injured,maimed or deceased.


Muy Frio


Last nado warned cell was at 6:27am CDT


College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 1221 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 1157 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 1144 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 1132 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KMOB 1028 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 1124 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 1058 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 1048 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 1037 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 848 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 749 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 842 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 745 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 733 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 627 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 614 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016
Quoting 242. ncstorm:

This has got to be a fluke..

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx 7m7 minutes ago

12z GFS is significant snow Sunday for NC Coastal Plain/Sandhills. Still marginal sfc temps. Triangle just west of sig snow this run.




While not looking likely, it is possible. A deep closed low with strong forcing would have enough cold air for snow. Take a look at Raleigh nws disco.
The high was suppose to be in the mid 60's and potentially record shattering.....The reality? 45 degrees as the wedge (which is underestimated by models a whole lot) wins again.

I hate cold rain.
Quoting 254. terstorm:


grafting onto trifoliate orange stock imparts some cold-hardiness but still have to bring them in up here in the mid-Atlantic (the actual trifoliate orange itself is barely edible, if even. It will grow in zone 5. I have one in my yard, although it's years from actually fruiting.)


I just got some seeds from a neighbors tree and seedlings are two inches tall now so I'm going to give it a try.
Quoting 266. washingtonian115:

The high was suppose to be in the mid 60's and potentially record shattering.....The reality? 45 degrees as the wedge (which is underestimated by models a whole lot) wins again.

I hate cold rain.


Today cold rain would be better than warm rain esp. for those to our north who still have snowpack.

I put my tomato seedlings out today expecting heavy rain to beat the aphids off and also some warmth.

One of the two will verify.

Young tomato plants are very tolerant of above freezing chill so I'm not worried. My orange tree has been out since Sunday and probably can stay out till next Monday when significant cold air moves in
Quoting 251. ElConando:

Jed, you think the dynamics are in place for such a cold snap to come that far South next week? Sub 40 degree temps haven't happened since winter of 2013-14 Dade.


I'll answer.. Yes.
12z Euro has Superbowl Sunday's heaviest snow in coastal SC..
Quoting 266. washingtonian115:

The high was suppose to be in the mid 60's and potentially record shattering.....The reality? 45 degrees as the wedge (which is underestimated by models a whole lot) wins again.

I hate cold rain.


I think the wedge will break, perhaps with cold frontal passage and we'll get at least an hour or two in the 50s.
But yeah the wedge was way underforecast including by me
Quoting 260. guygee:

Maybe it is not even snowing but only very cold, and you end up in a ditch on a lonely country road. Good to have an emergency kit for being stranded in the cold, just as we have emergency kits for hurricanes.


If you are traveling in winter you should have a winter survival kit in your car. Good point! And not just for long trips.
Can someone please tell me what the 12Z Euro shows for snow amounts for Long Island, NY for the storm for Tuesday next week?
Quoting 265. Patrap:





I love these radar images that show a giant stream of moisture, gorging across a great region of the US, that looks like it's emanating from a single point in the gulf...always seems so surreal
Quoting 274. YankeMike22:

Can someone please tell me what the 12Z Euro shows for snow amounts for Long Island, NY for the storm for Tuesday next week?

Link
Thanks washingtonian115!

Quoting 274. YankeMike22:

Can someone please tell me what the 12Z Euro shows for snow amounts for Long Island, NY for the storm for Tuesday next week?

Link
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 20640
Interesting about the spring and annual temp differences.
I was in Toronto Canada last year about this time and it was about minus -20/c now today its about +8/C.
there is probably not a lot of lake ice this year with these kinds of temps.

Link
It has rained all day in my part of NW Florida, so much for a quick passing of the front this morning and clearing skies this afternoon!
Good Morning Class!

January ended well for rainfall at my location in Soo Cal with 7". 6.5" of that came from 3 storms, 2 early in the month and the last one this past Sunday. Latest GFS shows no rain for Soo Cal thru Feb 19. Storms do return to Nor Cal about the middle of this month. All it will take is a week or 2 of that El Nino Jet pushing storms into Soo Cal to get totals above normal........I am waiting patiently.

Some rain totals for Soo Cal in January 2016..........look to be about average or a tad better, which is good considering that in 3 of 4 previous years, rainfall was about half of normal.
OUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL
ID Location OCT NOV DEC JAN WY to Date Pct Avg to Date Pct Tot WY
CQT DOWNTOWN LA 0.45 0.01 0.57 3.17 4.20 59 28
LAX LA INT'L AIRPORT 0.10 0.06 1.08 2.94 4.18 65 33
LGB LONG BEACH 0.04 0.06 0.90 2.29 3.29 53 27
LOX OXNARD 0.28 0.03 0.35 3.09 3.75 49 24
OJAC1 OJAI 0.15 0.09 0.24 4.55 5.03 47 24
MWS MOUNT WILSON 1.96 0.72 1.93 11.21 15.82 96 44
SAN LINDBERGH FIELD 0.43 1.54 0.88 3.21 6.06 119 59
Quoting 251. ElConando:

Jed, you think the dynamics are in place for such a cold snap to come that far South next week? Sub 40 degree temps haven't happened since winter of 2013-14 Dade.


If model trends continue yes, model guidance has the freezing line plunging all the way down into Miami Dade County mid to late week on 2 nights. It's still pretty far out, and sometimes long term guidance over does things a bit. Even assuming it's over done, unless there is drastic changes to guidance in on the synoptic scale, it looks like the coldest air of the winter here in FL will arrive next week.

That's assuming the guidance doesn't change though.
Quoting 283. Climate175:


The models are not properly handling the energy transferring to the coast correctly.This is still a week away but at least they are showing a storm in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic.
Tuesday's storm looks like a clipper heading to the coast, and then turning into a coastal storm. Many days to watch.
Quoting 271. georgevandenberghe:



I think the wedge will break, perhaps with cold frontal passage and we'll get at least an hour or two in the 50s.
But yeah the wedge was way underforecast including by me

is it a wedge or did the front pass already. cold up here in Harrisburg too, struggled to get into the 40s all day.
"This is one of those situations where we might not know exactly how it will unfold until 24 to 48 hours ahead of time."-CWG.
I'm not getting my hopes up but...

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 2m2 minutes ago
NWS has put out a slight risk of winter impact for possible storm early next week
Kinda hit and miss in Soo Cal but overall.........LA 75-110% of normal..........San Diego County was pretty wet 125-300% of normal. This covers Jan1-Feb1 2016.

Meanwhile, our friends from Central and Northern California have enjoyed 110-300% of normal rain with large areas of 150-300% of normal. :)

75 and Sunny for Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara CA!
On my doorstep. Florence, SC. Thunder rumbling.

Quoting 277. tampabaymatt:


College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 400 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON NC - KILM 341 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 335 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
Ya know, this just doesn't look like fun:

Wanted to bring a reality check to all these El Nino demise posts. Let's not get ahead of ourselves here, this Nino is absolutely alive and well. The current Kelvin Wave number 5 (KW5) is quite a beast, 1997 had nothing like it this so late in the season. KW5 will be expressing itself as warmer SSTs later in month and into March.

On top of that the MJO is forecasted to return at the end of month. It's extremely unusual for MJO to go positive in the west and central pacific during a strong El Nino, but that is exactly how KW5 got so big.


We are in a bit of uncharted territory here with significantly higher ocean heat content than 20 years ago and atmospheric patterns notably different than before. I'd advise taking long-range forecasts with a grain of salt until we see how things verify or not. Rest assured folks, one way or another it will be interesting! ;)
oops got doubled posted = deleted.
Something is ah spinning out in the Atlantic.Doubt we'll see much development from it though.
18z GFS
Quoting 213. georgevandenberghe:



...You have to get the depth of the freezing layer right (easy) and there are issues with the microphysics of the supercooled drops (hard).
[...]
BTW, here is a great site I ran into a couple of days ago covering aspects of the microphysics of water: http://www1.lsbu.ac.uk/water/water_structure_scie nce.html. My interest in reading this was the electromagnetic frequency-dependent dielectric properties of bound-water vs free water, but there is a lot more to learn there.
Quoting 304. Climate175:

18z GFS
We need to get more date into the models.We were spoiled with snowzilla and this mess will take days to sort out.
Quoting 299. Neapolitan:

Ya know, this just doesn't look like fun:




Maybe pay back time for all those record highs back in December.


Quoting 280. 69Viking:

It has rained all day in my part of NW Florida, so much for a quick passing of the front this morning and clearing skies this afternoon!
Looks like we're finally nearing the end up here. I left for a doctor's appointment in Dothan at 0945 and just got back. It rarely even slowed down in that time, but the ceiling is starting to lift now. My previous forecast of two inches turns out to be a little off, even after a revision. I've had 3.48" up until now. The front/squall line stalled for about four hours, and we got moderate to heavy rain most of the time. Other than the heavy rain, we didn't have any kind of severe weather, so I lucked out with that. Pretty impressive rises in the local creeks and rivers observed on the drive home though.
Quoting 298. HurricaneHunterJoe:


I believe that's the STS/WKC test storm we heard about earlier this week. :-)
Quoting 306. washingtonian115:

We need to get more date into the models.We were spoiled with snowzilla and this mess will take days to sort out.
Very True, it's really best to look at the ensembles right now, and then look at the operational when we are closer.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
601 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0501 PM TORNADO 3 WNW HINESVILLE 31.86N 81.64W
02/03/2016 LIBERTY GA EMERGENCY MNGR

FORT STEWART EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO
TOUCHED DOWN NEAR GATE 7 IN FORT STEWART AROUND 501 PM
AND REMAINED ON THE GROUND FOR APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES
AS IT MOVED NORTHEAST. POWER LINES WERE REPORTED DOWN.
NO OTHER DAMAGE REPORTS HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED AT THIS
TIME.
EPS.
Quoting 266. washingtonian115:

The high was suppose to be in the mid 60's and potentially record shattering.....The reality? 45 degrees as the wedge (which is underestimated by models a whole lot) wins again.

I hate cold rain.


made it to 62 at 2 pm today wash
now 51 falling slowly
be near 32 by midnight or thereafter
nice day after morning rains felt kinda like early summer really
but that's just a tease the kick in the pants is coming
Quoting 314. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



made it to 62 at 2 pm today wash
now 51 falling slowly
be near 32 by midnight or thereafter
nice day after morning rains felt kinda like early summer really
but that's just a tease the kick in the pants is coming

Patches of grass have begun to return, and the snow mound shrunk a lot today with this rain.
Quoting 300. VibrantPlanet:

Wanted to bring a reality check to all these El Nino demise posts. Let's not get ahead of ourselves here, this Nino is absolutely alive and well. The current Kelvin Wave number 5 (KW5) is quite a beast, 1997 had nothing like it this so late in the season. KW5 will be expressing itself as warmer SSTs later in month and into March.

On top of that the MJO is forecasted to return at the end of month. It's extremely unusual for MJO to go positive in the west and central pacific during a strong El Nino, but that is exactly how KW5 got so big.


We are in a bit of uncharted territory here with significantly higher ocean heat content than 20 years ago and atmospheric patterns notably different than before. I'd advise taking long-range forecasts with a grain of salt until we see how things verify or not. Rest assured folks, one way or another it will be interesting! ;)

This Nino will be gone come summer. Region 1.2 is in a serious cool down, and the only region that is really warm is 3.4 and it is also cooling. Also the SOI is rising and is currently positive in the weekly forecast.
Special weather statement in effect for:
•Bissett

Due to circumstances beyond the control of the Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre in Winnipeg, the public forecast for Bissett available on Weatheroffice is not being updated. In an effort to maintain service to this community, the forecast is provided below. We apologize for any inconvenience.

BISSETT - VICTORIA BEACH - NOPIMING PROVINCIAL PARK - PINE FALLS.
TONIGHT..PERIODS OF SNOW ENDING OVERNIGHT THEN CLOUDY WITH 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FLURRIES. AMOUNT 2 CM. LOW MINUS 16.
THURSDAY..A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FLURRIES EARLY
IN THE MORNING. HIGH MINUS 12.
THURSDAY NIGHT..BECOMING CLOUDY IN THE EVENING WITH 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW MINUS 20.

Extended:
FRIDAY..A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FLURRIES.
HIGH MINUS 10.
FRIDAY NIGHT..CLEAR. LOW MINUS 24.
SATURDAY..INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HIGH MINUS 12.
SATURDAY NIGHT..PERIODS OF SNOW. LOW MINUS 14.
SUNDAY..PERIODS OF SNOW. HIGH MINUS 6.
SUNDAY NIGHT..CLOUDY WITH 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF FLURRIES. LOW
MINUS 19.
MONDAY..SUNNY. HIGH MINUS 15.
MONDAY NIGHT..CLEAR. LOW MINUS 24.
TUESDAY..SUNNY. HIGH MINUS 15.
NORMALS FOR THE PERIOD..LOW MINUS 23. HIGH MINUS 10.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #MBStorm.
Quoting 315. Climate175:

Patches of grass have begun to return, and the snow mound shrunk a lot today with this rain.
we have no snow on the ground here as a matter of fact the grass is starting to green a little have too go couple of hrs north of my area to find snow cover on ground

great for February I even did a little grounds clean up this afternoon mid winter garbage pickup looks good now less to do when real spring shows up
Winds have been from the south almost all day, and as the evening goes on the humidity rises and the winds have been bending a bit at an angle. Wasn't all that dry earlier today so there's plenty of moisture as the front moves in. Should be a very wet overnight and tomorrow morning.
320. Tcwx2
Got under a tornado warning earlier today. Winds may of gotten up to 30mph but it was off to my north before the storm got going. Got some very heavy right soon thereafter with it cooling down from 72 to 60 in about 20 minutes. Ended up with 2.8" and a lot of water on the sides of roads. Incredible how much lighting there was with this and it being February.
Quoting 299. Neapolitan:

Ya know, this just doesn't look like fun:

Au contraire!



Who will be more accurate? The GFS at 324 hours? Or this guy?

">
Quoting 313. Climate175:

EPS.
The ensembles are all west of the operational's.Disagreement battle for sure but only one outcome will come of this.
Quoting 316. NativeSun:

This Nino will be gone come summer. Region 1.2 is in a serious cool down, and the only region that is really warm is 3.4 and it is also cooling. Also the SOI is rising and is currently positive in the weekly forecast.


Word.

Or in the non-contemporary, I concur
Quoting 310. sar2401:

I believe that's the STS/WKC test storm we heard about earlier this week. :-)


Not me
The possible tropical system I was mentioning was located NE of the NEstern Caribbean

Anyway not buying this system anymore
Quoting 316. NativeSun:

This Nino will be gone come summer. Region 1.2 is in a serious cool down, and the only region that is really warm is 3.4 and it is also cooling. Also the SOI is rising and is currently positive in the weekly forecast.


I agree El Niño will be gone later this year
Quoting 316. NativeSun:

This Nino will be gone come summer. Region 1.2 is in a serious cool down, and the only region that is really warm is 3.4 and it is also cooling. Also the SOI is rising and is currently positive in the weekly forecast.


It may be neutral by summer, but by Fall?

We shall see, as we seem to be in uncharted territory.
Quoting 322. washingtonian115:

The ensembles are all west of the operational's.Disagreement battle for sure but only one outcome will come of this.
That chart alone is a scary one.


Big trouble for Big Texas on Feb. 15?
Quoting 321. BaltimoreBrian:


Au contraire!



Who will be more accurate? The GFS at 324 hours? Or this guy?

">


That guy and that movie creeped me out. I preferred Santa Claus is Coming to Town.

And I really enjoyed the photos on your blog.
Quoting 299. Neapolitan:

Ya know, this just doesn't look like fun:




I think it's pretty fun given that winter doesn't stick around long down here. I love Florida warmth most of the year, but it's fun to have these patterns because it's a major deviation from average.

Plus it's hilarious to see people freak out when it gets cold in Florida, because people forget that nature does what it wants, and doesn't always obey the travelers brochure that claims it's guaranteed to be sunny with highs near 80 and a water temp in the mid 70's in the middle of winter :)
Quoting 332. Jedkins01:



I think it's pretty fun given that winter doesn't stick around long down here. I love Florida warmth most of the year, but it's fun to have these patterns because it's a major deviation from average.

Plus it's hilarious to see people freak out when it gets cold in Florida, because people forget that nature does what it wants, and doesn't always obey the travelers brochure that claims it's guaranteed to be sunny with highs near 80 and a water temp in the mid 70's in the middle of winter :)
This will be a long and stormy winter. Granted, it is just my opinion, but I believe the eastern third will get several more potent Nor,Easters.
We recently had a brief period where the rainfall rate was extremely heavy here. I watched my rain gauge climb from about 0.10 to 1.0 inch out back with head lamp on in only about 5-7 minutes. There was actually some decent lightning action too, which is a nice change from the usual little to no lightning with winter squall lines here.

It's fun to get such intense rainfall in winter, it was amazingly heavy.

WU has mid 80's next Wed-Thurs, so Indian Hills Summer......
NAVGEM has trended from taking the Sun-Mon Storm out to sea to making it go up the coast. Not a definite solution right now, and still could go out to sea, but worth watching maybe.
howling winds
Quoting 333. hydrus:

This will be a long and stormy winter. Granted, it is just my opinion, but I believe the eastern third will get several more potent Nor,Easters.

yeah late to arrive late to leave
only thing going for us is the season is moving along no matter what
and we are now on the stronger side of a warming sun
anything that comes late will melt fast in the light of day

lack of snow cover and deep ground frost will make warming even faster
Quoting 337. Climate175:

NAVGEM has trended from taking the Sun-Mon Storm out to sea to making it go up the coast. Not a definite solution right now, and still could go out to sea, but worth watching maybe.
May you post it please?
My problem from Rainy Days:

Week Peak Power Energy Produced
01/01/2016 - 01/07/2016 2.52 kW 54.9 kWh
01/08/2016 - 01/14/2016 2.71 kW 60.0 kWh
01/15/2016 - 01/21/2016 2.79 kW 63.9 kWh
01/22/2016 - 01/28/2016 2.53 kW 20.7 kWh
01/29/2016 - 01/31/2016 0 W 0 Wh
January 2016 Total: 199 kWh
Previous Month Total: 312 kWh
Year to Date: 199 kWh

My problems are mighty small, if I don't complain about little ones I won't have anything to complain about at all.
Quoting 332. Jedkins01:



I think it's pretty fun given that winter doesn't stick around long down here. I love Florida warmth most of the year, but it's fun to have these patterns because it's a major deviation from average.

Plus it's hilarious to see people freak out when it gets cold in Florida, because people forget that nature does what it wants, and doesn't always obey the travelers brochure that claims it's guaranteed to be sunny with highs near 80 and a water temp in the mid 70's in the middle of winter :)


As an astronomy buff, I'm usually pretty happy when I see a map like that. Cold and clear night skies are the best. As a weather buff, I'm also usually pretty happy when I see a map like that for the reasons you stated.
Quoting 342. CybrTeddy:



As an astronomy buff, I'm usually pretty happy when I see a map like that. Cold and clear night skies are the best. As a weather buff, I'm also usually pretty happy when I see a map like that for the reasons you stated.


Since my mother is the current president of the astronomy club in Nashville, she always yells at me to get rid of clouds and haze so she can hold public star parties.

Then there was a winter meteor shower a few years ago that she dragged me outside to see and it was 13 outside, and I was just in my PJs. Not fun, and the shower stank.

One of the showers over winter break was actually really good, saw 13 in 30 minutes.
Quoting 343. Astrometeor:



Since my mother is the current president of the astronomy club in Nashville, she always yells at me to get rid of clouds and haze so she can hold public star parties.

Then there was a winter meteor shower a few years ago that she dragged me outside to see and it was 13 outside, and I was just in my PJs. Not fun, and the shower stank.

One of the showers over winter break was actually really good, saw 13 in 30 minutes.
I have noticed that folks that like Meteorology also like Astronomy and vice versa. In fact, people who are interested in weather dig all the sciences. I grew up on the water, so Celestial Navigation along with " you better keep tabs on the weather or its your arse " discipline applies thoroughly.
Quoting 268. georgevandenberghe:



Today cold rain would be better than warm rain esp. for those to our north who still have snowpack.

I put my tomato seedlings out today expecting heavy rain to beat the aphids off and also some warmth.

One of the two will verify.

Young tomato plants are very tolerant of above freezing chill so I'm not worried. My orange tree has been out since Sunday and probably can stay out till next Monday when significant cold air moves in



Also chilling tomato seedlings, fridge but not freezing temps, (at the two-true-leaf stage) seems to increase fruit production.
Quoting 329. pureet1948:



Big trouble for Big Texas on Feb. 15?


that is a major ice storm in that area
Quoting 316. NativeSun:

This Nino will be gone come summer. Region 1.2 is in a serious cool down, and the only region that is really warm is 3.4 and it is also cooling. Also the SOI is rising and is currently positive in the weekly forecast.

Yes this El Nino being gone come summer would seem likely. Especially given that the statement "the bigger they are the harder they fall" tends to hold true in regards to El Ninos. So it would take quite a bit of forcing to keep it going. However, Kelvin wave 5 will definitely give a bump to SSTs in region 3, 3.4 and perhaps in 1.2. With that said, it's heating will be noticeably tempered by stronger trades. KW5 is the product of unexpected atmospheric forcing and it looks like we're in for some more of that forcing toward the end of the month, at which time it wouldn't be surprising for the SOI to head more negative again.
Here is another view on the situation. Notice in the thermocline how 1998 was further along in its progress to La Nina at this time. Also the heat from KW5, since it arrived late in the season, hasn't made it to the surface yet.
Quoting 332. Jedkins01:

I think it's pretty fun given that winter doesn't stick around long down here. I love Florida warmth most of the year, but it's fun to have these patterns because it's a major deviation from average.

Plus it's hilarious to see people freak out when it gets cold in Florida, because people forget that nature does what it wants, and doesn't always obey the travelers brochure that claims it's guaranteed to be sunny with highs near 80 and a water temp in the mid 70's in the middle of winter :)
Not so much fun if you are an advocate of alternative agriculture in home gardening that includes a significant contribution from agroforestry in the microclimates along the barrier islands extending north to Cape Canaveral on the east coast and Clearwater on the west coast. For example, here is a map of the maximum range on the Coconut Palm, Cocos nucifera, assembled by enthusiasts over at palmtalk.org: How far N in Florida can coconut palms reliably grow:
.
Coconut palm can be considered as a proxy for many other productive species including Canarium nut, African and American Oil Palms, Peach Palm, Sapodilla, Mayan Nut, Mango... just to name a few examples. The last great freezes and near total extinction events for such species in their northern range were the great Florida freezes of the 1980's: 1989 Christmas Freeze: Florida's Citrus Industry Was Changed Forever . Hard freezes extended out to the coast in Central Florida. A summary of recorded major impact Florida freezes can be seen here: Timeline of Major Florida Freezes. Since that time, the moderating influence of heat island effect due to population growth, combined with global warming, seems to have resulted in tipping the balance towards the sustainability of these climatically marginal species, although the cool winters of 2009 and 2010 did result in significant mortality. There is evidence the propagation of local survivors will eventually result in better cold tolerance over many generations, as is the case in Yunnan Province and Hainan Island in China (for example, see "Development of microsatellite markers in Cocos nucifera and their application in evaluating the level of genetic diversity of Cocos nucifera, 2013-pdf). However, this is a long-term process that will suffer a large set-back if another extreme cold outbreak occurs. I always view the potential of these cold-outbreaks with a great deal of trepidation for this reason.
Quoting 329. pureet1948:



Big trouble for Big Texas on Feb. 15?


At 276 hrs out? You've got to be kidding me.
Quoting 350. Xyrus2000:



At 276 hrs out? You've got to be kidding me.


pureet likes long term forecasts
Quoting 346. Tazmanian:



that is a major ice storm in that area


One of those 276-360 hour forecasts will come true eventually.
Quoting 352. HurricaneHunterJoe:



One of those 276-360 hour forecasts will come true eventually.
Yep...Hope that one fails miserably tho...If i want ice, i,ll get it from the freezer..
Quoting 351. HurricaneHunterJoe:



pureet likes long term forecasts
He may have to Pureet a lot of crow wit those 276 hr models.
Models change a LOT

Quoting 354. hydrus:

He may have to Pureet a lot of crow wit those 276 hr models.


LOL........anyone counting on them will have to! Maybe this time will be the one that is correct....or not.....see updated run below......maybe it will flip flop back to a ice storm.
A little math

11,000cfs flowing into Shasta Lake currently.......1cf=7.480 gallons

11,000 x 7.480= 82,280 gallons per second X 60=4,936,800 GPM X 60= 296,208,000 GPH X 24= 7,108,992,000 Gallons per day!! 7 Billion gallons and change per day into Shasta Lake

That is some SERIOUS water!! If my math is correct....LOL
Good morning from Mainz where the crazy days of street carnival were just officially launched at 11.11 am. with women's carnival (Fat Thursday) - as in other cities along Rhine River like Cologne as well. Weather is awful though: rain or even snow in higher regions, and the freight train of windstorms continues to deliver its "goods" to Europe. Storms are forecast to hit more south the next days, with maybe severe gales on upcoming Rosemonday with all those big parades going on. Will keep you updated!


One stormy low after the other on the way to Europe.

Sideglance: Africa got very different problems:
North African drought threatens efforts to cut spending, boost growth
Source: Reuters - Thu, 4 Feb 2016 09:00 GMT
Drought in Southern Africa
NASA Earth Observatory, February 3, 2016
Bottled water is 'the new gold' in drought-hit Harare
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Tue, 2 Feb 2016 00:01 GMT
Not sure whether this scary video has already been shared in here:
Quoting 334. Jedkins01:

We recently had a brief period where the rainfall rate was extremely heavy here. I watched my rain gauge climb from about 0.10 to 1.0 inch out back with head lamp on in only about 5-7 minutes. There was actually some decent lightning action too, which is a nice change from the usual little to no lightning with winter squall lines here.

It's fun to get such intense rainfall in winter, it was amazingly heavy.
I've been noticing that rain events over the last month have trended towards these torrential downpours more so than the brief showers more typical in winter. We've also trended towards more daytime rain instead of just the overnight showers we are used to in January. It's looked a lot more like June, with a line of storms induced by daytime heating moving through around 1 p.m.; Tuesday's round flooded out most lowlying areas on the island in a manner one would expect from a much warmer system.

Looking at the sat imagery, it's easy to see where the extra moisture is being derived.
361. beell
Quoting 357. HurricaneHunterJoe:

A little math

11,000cfs flowing into Shasta Lake currently.......1cf=7.480 gallons

11,000 x 7.480= 82,280 gallons per second X 60=4,936,800 GPM X 60= 296,208,000 GPH X 24= 7,108,992,000 Gallons per day!! 7 Billion gallons and change per day into Shasta Lake

That is some SERIOUS water!! If my math is correct....LOL


About 3 hrs to fill up the Superdome (125,000,000 cf).

The Mississippi during this January's rise (1,400,000 cfs) at Red River landing above Baton Rouge, LA.

About a minute and a half!
AOA 890,000 cfs today.



Texans are a little miffed that the MR does not run through Texas...
brown.water=mosquito.lagoon=2016
525 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BROOKS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
LOWNDES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 815 AM EST

* AT 521 AM EST...RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF BROOKS AND LOWNDES COUNTIES...AND THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING. SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN BROOKS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.

&&
Quoting 359. barbamz:

Not sure whether this scary video has already been shared in here:



Good morning, everybody

I just have to comment on the video that Barb posted. I did a "mini" transcript of what was said:

Child: "Mommy, come on! Mommy!"
Mother: "OMG, it's taking the roofs of houses."
Male: "Is it really?"
Mother: "Yes...this is right beside our house! OMG"
Child: "Come on, Mommy!"
Mother: "Oh, my gosh. Oh, my gosh."
Child: "Are we going to die?"
Mother: "No, babe. That's not going toward us. It's going away from us. Oh, my word."

Not totally verbatim but enough to get my point across. Listen to how terrified that child is. That parent was so focused on what was happening outside and getting the tornado caught on camera that she, in my eyes, ignored the needs of that little one. No thoughts about taking cover at all. I hope some day she really listens to what she posted on YouTube.

Lindy

PS Hope all is well with everybody!
Quoting 349. guygee:

Not so much fun if you are an advocate of alternative agriculture in home gardening that includes a significant contribution from agroforestry in the microclimates along the barrier islands extending north to Cape Canaveral on the east coast and Clearwater on the west coast. For example, here is a map of the maximum range on the Coconut Palm, Cocos nucifera, assembled by enthusiasts over at palmtalk.org: How far N in Florida can coconut palms reliably grow:
.
Coconut palm can be considered as a proxy for many other productive species including Canarium nut, African and American Oil Palms, Peach Palm, Sapodilla, Mayan Nut, Mango... just to name a few examples. The last great freezes and near total extinction events for such species in their northern range were the great Florida freezes of the 1980's: 1989 Christmas Freeze: Florida's Citrus Industry Was Changed Forever . Hard freezes extended out to the coast in Central Florida. A summary of recorded major impact Florida freezes can be seen here: Timeline of Major Florida Freezes. Since that time, the moderating influence of heat island effect due to population growth, combined with global warming, seems to have resulted in tipping the balance towards the sustainability of these climatically marginal species, although the cool winters of 2009 and 2010 did result in significant mortality. There is evidence the propagation of local survivors will eventually result in better cold tolerance over many generations, as is the case in Yunnan Province and Hainan Island in China (for example, see "Development of microsatellite markers in Cocos nucifera and their application in evaluating the level of genetic diversity of Cocos nucifera, 2013-pdf). However, this is a long-term process that will suffer a large set-back if another extreme cold outbreak occurs. I always view the potential of these cold-outbreaks with a great deal of trepidation for this reason.



There was a nursery I went to in the North Orlando region a while back that said they were working with UF to try and develop a "cold hardy" coconut bearing palm that could survive as far north as St. Augustine along the coast. Not sure if anything ever came of it though.
Good Morning; the main points from the Conus forecast today:


Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EST Thu Feb 04 2016

Valid 12Z Thu Feb 04 2016 - 12Z Sat Feb 06 2016

...Heavy rain possible from the Southern Mid-Atlantic Coast to the
Southeast Coast and along parts of New England Coast...

...Heavy snow over parts of the Cascades...

...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Olympic Peninsula...

Front along the East Coast will slowly move eastward out over the Western
Atlantic by Friday evening. Moisture pooling along the boundary will aid
in producing rain from parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast, Southeast,
Mid-Atlantic Coast, and into New England Coast on Thursday morning moving
off the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday afternoon and moving off
New England Coast by Friday evening.

Quoting 347. VibrantPlanet:


Yes this El Nino being gone come summer would seem likely. Especially given that the statement "the bigger they are the harder they fall" tends to hold true in regards to El Ninos. So it would take quite a bit of forcing to keep it going. However, Kelvin wave 5 will definitely give a bump to SSTs in region 3, 3.4 and perhaps in 1.2. With that said, it's heating will be noticeably tempered by stronger trades. KW5 is the product of unexpected atmospheric forcing and it looks like we're in for some more of that forcing toward the end of the month, at which time it wouldn't be surprising for the SOI to head more negative again.
I wouldn't mind the Nino lasting a little longer, as I hope it would bring more of the much needed rain to the West and Southwest, but this Nino is toast, and the KW waves are running out of warm water to work with. Their will be swings in the SOI, but as Spring approaches they will start heading more into the positive territory, and along with other factors that effect the ENSO state we should see a Nina by summer, and a very strong Nina by winter, which could rival STS Nino.
Would only note (personal observation), that there has been lots of snow in parts of the Pacific NW this winter which is a little bit of a departure from the El Nino norm and not as many deep Gulf lows, that turn into strong Nor'Easters, traversing up; many of the recent low trajectories have been through the Mid-section of the US. But the extended Pacific Jet has certainly been present and moving very warm (and wet) air across the Southern tier of Conus from the E-Pac.




And finally the current US drought map released this morning: parts of California still running a deficit in spite of the El Nino rains. They will need all the snowpack that they can get before winter is over to try to get through the Spring.

Quoting 349. guygee:

Not so much fun if you are an advocate of alternative agriculture in home gardening that includes a significant contribution from agroforestry in the microclimates along the barrier islands extending north to Cape Canaveral on the east coast and Clearwater on the west coast. For example, here is a map of the maximum range on the Coconut Palm, Cocos nucifera, assembled by enthusiasts over at palmtalk.org: How far N in Florida can coconut palms reliably grow:
.
Coconut palm can be considered as a proxy for many other productive species including Canarium nut, African and American Oil Palms, Peach Palm, Sapodilla, Mayan Nut, Mango... just to name a few examples. The last great freezes and near total extinction events for such species in their northern range were the great Florida freezes of the 1980's: 1989 Christmas Freeze: Florida's Citrus Industry Was Changed Forever . Hard freezes extended out to the coast in Central Florida. A summary of recorded major impact Florida freezes can be seen here: Timeline of Major Florida Freezes. Since that time, the moderating influence of heat island effect due to population growth, combined with global warming, seems to have resulted in tipping the balance towards the sustainability of these climatically marginal species, although the cool winters of 2009 and 2010 did result in significant mortality. There is evidence the propagation of local survivors will eventually result in better cold tolerance over many generations, as is the case in Yunnan Province and Hainan Island in China (for example, see "Development of microsatellite markers in Cocos nucifera and their application in evaluating the level of genetic diversity of Cocos nucifera, 2013-pdf). However, this is a long-term process that will suffer a large set-back if another extreme cold outbreak occurs. I always view the potential of these cold-outbreaks with a great deal of trepidation for this reason.



Very interesting. I didn't realize coconut palms could survive that far north on the coasts or that there was some natural selection for cold hardiness.

The other tangential point of interest I've raised before is that the 1980s were the warmest decade of the 20'th century (until the 90s which eclipsed them). However they also produced more devastating Florida freezes than any other decade of that century. 1980(march) , 1981 (January, century low for Key west 41F) 1982, 1983 (Christmas) , 1985 (January, century low for TLH 6F) , 1986 and 1989 all produced devastating freezes and the 1985 freeze, the worst of them, wiped out a lot of northern Citrus groves. The period from 1982-1994 also produced the only three incidents of subzero cold at DCA, from 1941-2015 with a 41 year break prior and a 22 year break since and three incidents in the 12 years between.
Quoting 315. Climate175:

Patches of grass have begun to return, and the snow mound shrunk a lot today with this rain.


Our grass stayed mostly green under the snow which is gone except for north sides of buildings and wooded patches. Temperatures stayed near 50F all night with high dewpoints and fog streaming off the snow banks but I don't expect much warming today. All of my citrus remains outside until probably early next week.
Quoting 373. weathermanwannabe:

And finally the current US drought map released this morning: parts of California still running a deficit in spite of the El Nino rains. They will need all the snowpack that they can get before winter is over to try to get through the Spring.
Still running a huge deficit. In fact, despite the recent rains, conditions haven't changed much in the last year. Last February 3, 39.99% of the state was in "Exceptional" drought, the highest level; this week that number stands at 39.41%. The biggest improvement over last year was in the "Extreme" drought category, which fell from 77.46% to 63.9%, a drop of nearly 17%:



The great news, of course, is that the Sierra snowpack is considerably above normal at the moment for the first time in five years:



However, Sierra snows are just one of the many factors that determine drought. And there are other offsetting factors. For one, Californians are falling well short of conservation guidelines...
Their will be swings in the SOI, but as Spring approaches they will start heading more into the positive territory, and along with other factors that effect the ENSO state we should see a Nina by summer, and a very strong Nina by winter, which could rival STS Nino.


concerning the SOI....from the aussie mets......

During Australia's northern wet season, it is not unusual to see big fluctuations in the SOI due to the passage of tropical systems, and hence its value may not be representative of the overall ENSO state.

Just heard that a local Northern Va Sheriffs department told all employees to expect to work the Tues/Wed due to a large snowfall.
sometimes to our discredit i think we look at the model line graphs without seeing the big picture...and by we....i mean me.......looking at the cfsv2 for the months of june through august.....if it was to verify....can we say MODOKI?......also...note the sst's in the atlantic basin....now i'm not jumping on the modoki bandwagon....just looking at the big picture is all


Quoting 378. 1Zach1:

Just heard that a local Northern Va Sheriffs department told all employees to expect to work the Tues/Wed due to a large snowfall.
Just heard from whom?
About two and a quarter inches of rain at KILM since it started last night. Was very heavy around midnight and saw lightning well around 7 AM
Quoting 316. NativeSun:

This Nino will be gone come summer. Region 1.2 is in a serious cool down, and the only region that is really warm is 3.4 and it is also cooling. Also the SOI is rising and is currently positive in the weekly forecast.
This makes me sad.
Quoting 380. Neapolitan:

Just heard from whom?

A local Deputy Sheriff.
12z Nam has now switched to the latest 12z/00z runs of the Euro and showing snow for coastal SC on Superbowl Sunday..







Quoting 360. BahaHurican:

I've been noticing that rain events over the last month have trended towards these torrential downpours more so than the brief showers more typical in winter. We've also trended towards more daytime rain instead of just the overnight showers we are used to in January. It's looked a lot more like June, with a line of storms induced by daytime heating moving through around 1 p.m.; Tuesday's round flooded out most lowlying areas on the island in a manner one would expect from a much warmer system.

Looking at the sat imagery, it's easy to see where the extra moisture is being derived.

We had our torrential rain the day before yesterday, mostly after dark. My rain gauge showed 1 1/2" in a few hours, and our back yard became a bigger lake than I've ever seen before (13 years). I hope it doesn't kill the trees! (Some of which are over a hundred years old.) So far this winter, we haven't had any plowable snow, just three or four inches a couple of times, which we drove on without shoveling at all. For the past week it's been all mud, and the grass is greening, too. I feel sorry for all the pick-up truck drivers with their brand new snow plows, not making any money this year. I feel sorry also for me and my (grown-up) children, no chance to go cross-country skiing, nor riding the snow runner this year. The days are dark and dreary, and cabin fever is nipping at our heals.
Quoting 378. 1Zach1:

Just heard that a local Northern Va Sheriffs department told all employees to expect to work the Tues/Wed due to a large snowfall.
That threat is diminishing.They shouldn't jump the gun to quickly.
Quoting 366. olivojoe:



There was a nursery I went to in the North Orlando region a while back that said they were working with UF to try and develop a "cold hardy" coconut bearing palm that could survive as far north as St. Augustine along the coast. Not sure if anything ever came of it though.


That would look so out of place though. Honestly anything but palmettos north of Canaveral don't look right. People here try and grow those short and fat pindo palms that are from South America. They're ugly.
Quoting 385. ChiThom:


We had our torrential rain the day before yesterday, mostly after dark. My rain gauge showed 1 1/2" in a few hours, and our back yard became a bigger lake than I've ever seen before (13 years). I hope it doesn't kill the trees! (Some of which are over a hundred years old.) So far this winter, we haven't had any plowable snow, just three or four inches a couple of times, which we drove on without shoveling at all. For the past week it's been all mud, and the grass is greening, too. I feel sorry for all the pick-up truck drivers with their brand new snow plows, not making any money this year. I feel sorry also for me and my (grown-up) children, no chance to go cross-country skiing, nor riding the snow runner this year. The days are dark and dreary, and cabin fever is nipping at our heals.


For what it's worth, flooding in cold soil is much less harmful to most trees than flooding in warm soil because the roots respire much more slowly in cold soil and so need much less oxygen. Good luck.

I lost a 100 year old hemlock to warm season soil saturation in July 2013 after an extremely wet June.
Quoting 387. win1gamegiantsplease:



That would look so out of place though. Honestly anything but palmettos north of Canaveral look right. People here try and grow those short and fat pindo palms that are from South America. They're ugly.


I wouldn't care, I would love to have some along the lake in my backyard. Id line the shore with white sand and put up a hammock between them....for the days I don't feel like driving 20 minutes to go to the beach.
Anyone interested in that feature northeast of the Leewards? It looks like it got cut off and is getting the kind of look that might mean something if we were actually during hurricane season.

Random things have spun up out of season before, like Alex - but at least he was foretold a while before his genesis, this thing won't be anything, but if it were May or even April, than perhaps.
Quoting 349. guygee:

Not so much fun if you are an advocate of alternative agriculture in home gardening that includes a significant contribution from agroforestry in the microclimates along the barrier islands extending north to Cape Canaveral on the east coast and Clearwater on the west coast. For example, here is a map of the maximum range on the Coconut Palm, Cocos nucifera, assembled by enthusiasts over at palmtalk.org: How far N in Florida can coconut palms reliably grow:
.
Coconut palm can be considered as a proxy for many other productive species including Canarium nut, African and American Oil Palms, Peach Palm, Sapodilla, Mayan Nut, Mango... just to name a few examples. The last great freezes and near total extinction events for such species in their northern range were the great Florida freezes of the 1980's: 1989 Christmas Freeze: Florida's Citrus Industry Was Changed Forever . Hard freezes extended out to the coast in Central Florida. A summary of recorded major impact Florida freezes can be seen here: Timeline of Major Florida Freezes. Since that time, the moderating influence of heat island effect due to population growth, combined with global warming, seems to have resulted in tipping the balance towards the sustainability of these climatically marginal species, although the cool winters of 2009 and 2010 did result in significant mortality. There is evidence the propagation of local survivors will eventually result in better cold tolerance over many generations, as is the case in Yunnan Province and Hainan Island in China (for example, see "Development of microsatellite markers in Cocos nucifera and their application in evaluating the level of genetic diversity of Cocos nucifera, 2013-pdf). However, this is a long-term process that will suffer a large set-back if another extreme cold outbreak occurs. I always view the potential of these cold-outbreaks with a great deal of trepidation for this reason.



On that history of Florida Freezes in the link above. They say the 1983 Christmas freeze was a surprise. It shouldn't have been. It was an advective freeze from an arctic outbreak forecast a day in advance. I was in Fort Myers (Estero Island) that Christmas and it was obvious an extreme event would happen the day before as the arctic air plunged towards FL. The local weather radio forecast lows below 20 for most of the peninsula north of Lake Okeechobee and in the low teens to Gainesville. We verified at 32F on the beach off FMY Christmas day.

A week prior I had gone to my grandfather's funeral in MSP. It was extremely cold even for there with -23F the day I left Dec 18 and -5F under bright sunshine midafternoon the 17'th at the gravesite. Landing at FMY it was 83F with a dewpoint around 70 but I started wonderng then what would happen if that arctic air came down... it did a week later.
Patricia confirmed to be stronger than 200 mph.
And deeper than 879mb.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP202015_Patrici a.pdf
Quoting 387. win1gamegiantsplease:



That would look so out of place though. Honestly anything but palmettos north of Canaveral look right. People here try and grow those short and fat pindo palms that are from South America. They're ugly.
OTOH, Pindo Palm: Jelly, Wine and Good Eats. I know most people just let the fruit fall, but I foresee a day when we will not be so wasteful.
394. JRRP
Quoting 366. olivojoe:



There was a nursery I went to in the North Orlando region a while back that said they were working with UF to try and develop a "cold hardy" coconut bearing palm that could survive as far north as St. Augustine along the coast. Not sure if anything ever came of it though.
Great lead for some research, thank you. UF contributes a lot of good public information on agriculture and horticulture, I love reading their site.
Tropical Cyclone Report for 2015’s Hurricane Patricia i think your going too love it


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20160204_pa_Patricia TCRAnnouncement.pdf
Quoting 392. Tornado6042008X:

Patricia confirmed to be stronger than 200 mph.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP202015_Patrici a.pdf



185 kt peak wow, but did not make landfall as a category 5. Considering how tightly wound she was, I knew she strengthening too quickly for her own good.

So she joins the Atlantic's Danny, Kate and Henri as having achieved higher winds. Danny's 110 kt peak is not surprising, and the NHC confirmed that he was a relatively strong hurricane for a bit longer like we had thought at the time.
Quoting 395. guygee:

Great lead for some research, thank you. UF contributes a lot of good public information on agriculture and horticulture, I love reading their site.


I was looking at them in the mid 70s for a possible horticulture major but chose a different career path.
Quoting 398. LostTomorrows:



185 kt peak wow, but did not make landfall as a category 5. Considering how tightly wound she was, I knew she strengthening too quickly for her own good.

So she joins the Atlantic's Danny, Kate and Henri as having achieved higher winds. Danny's 110 kt peak is not surprising, and the NHC confirmed that he was a relatively strong hurricane for a bit longer like we had thought at the time.
I'm expecting a blog update about this today.
Quoting 390. LostTomorrows:

Anyone interested in that feature northeast of the Leewards? It looks like it got cut off and is getting the kind of look that might mean something if we were actually during hurricane season.

Random things have spun up out of season before, like Alex - but at least he was foretold a while before his genesis, this thing won't be anything, but if it were May or even April, than perhaps.


Time will tell of course...Nevertheless although we are not in the official period of the Atlantic Hurricane season such systems still bear watching as the potential for development does exist year-round -even outside of the more favorable traditional periods for cyclogenesis and tropical disturbance formation. Obvious case in point being Alex thus far...

Blessings to All!
Just got finished reading the PDF concerning Patricia. I think the closest we got to this type of storm in the Gulf was Rita in 2005. One can only imagine the panick such a beast would cause roaming into the GOM once again. Rita is the first hurricane that actually twisted my guts in knots when I woke to find her barrel pointed at the Houston/Galveston area.
Good morning guys...

It's very warm and quiet here. I can see some convective clouds, which is interesting.




Winter Storm Watch
Statement as of 11:45 AM EST on February 04, 2016

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from late tonight through Friday
afternoon...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Winter Storm
Watch... which is in effect from late tonight through Friday
afternoon.

* Locations... northeast Connecticut... northwest Rhode Island and
parts of south central and eastern Massachusetts.

* Hazard types... heavy snow.

* Accumulations... possible snow accumulation of 4 to 7 inches.

* Timing... rain develops tonight and changes to snow after
midnight. Heavy snow is possible between 5 am and 10 am Friday
with snowfall rates up to one inch per hour.

* Impacts... the Friday morning commute will be most affected due
to hazardous driving conditions. Wet snow accumulating on trees
and power lines could result in isolated power outages.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch is means there is the potential for more than
six inches of snow. Stay informed. Plan on a slower than usual
commute Friday morning... or telecommute if possible.




It appears that the models are shift west with the low that will be developing off the coast tonight and into tomorrow bringing the precip shield farther west a bit west of I-95 on some models with the possibility to trend even farther west.

CMC 12z:

RE: California drought levels..
Not shown real well in the graph at comment 376, going back a few months from one year ago, SIGNIFICANT drought IMPROVEMENT IS MORE evident:

October 28, 2014
81.92% D4-D5; 58.41% D5

Feb 2, 2016
63.9% D4-D5; 39.41% D5

Data from Drought Monitor traditional percent area for California going back to the year 2000

The Atlantic Ocean Is Acidifying at a Rapid Rate


A new study finds the ocean is absorbing 50 percent more carbon than it was a decade ago, and that could have dire consequences for dolphins, whales, and other marine life.
Quoting 407. Patrap:

The Atlantic Ocean Is Acidifying at a Rapid Rate


A new study finds the ocean is absorbing 50 percent more carbon than it was a decade ago, and that could have dire consequences for dolphins, whales, and other marine life.



ahhh i can hear them saying.......but we have them at seaworld....why do we need them in the ocean too.......



good to see you around pat......
This photo was provided by Fort Stewart/Hunter FMWR. A tornado touched down in Fort Stewart around 5 pm today. A NWS damage survey will be conduced on Thursday to determine the strength and track of this, and potentially additional tornadoes that may have occurred.




Ive been hoarding my me time to get ready for the Big Push to Mardi Gras Tuesday next week. ric.

We have a few guEst arriving Sat and have room for a couple more.

back on the rise?

i noted the recon is out

Link
Quoting 398. LostTomorrows:



185 kt peak wow, but did not make landfall as a category 5. Considering how tightly wound she was, I knew she strengthening too quickly for her own good.

So she joins the Atlantic's Danny, Kate and Henri as having achieved higher winds. Danny's 110 kt peak is not surprising, and the NHC confirmed that he was a relatively strong hurricane for a bit longer like we had thought at the time.
I'll be interested to read what Dr. Masters has to say about this. Patricia shows the effect of several Gulf of Tehuantepec gales in terms of helping the storm form. Without those Gulf gales, it's not likely the Patricia would have been as a strong a storm as it ultimately turned out to be. These gale events are common during most summer and fall seasons, but they are much stronger during an El Nino. Given the strength of this El Nino, they were probably the strongest that we've seen in the time of reliable records. Unfortunately, our knowledge of eastern Pacific hurricanes is the poorest of hurricanes occurring almost anywhere in either the Atlantic or the Pacific, with reliable records only going back a little over 35 years. There may have been other storms like Patricia in the past, small and very intense, but we just don't the records to be able to confirm or deny that.
Models are also showing interesting Miller B solution for mid next week:

415. MrHul
Quoting 409. Patrap:

This photo was provided by Fort Stewart/Hunter FMWR. A tornado touched down in Fort Stewart around 5 pm today. A NWS damage survey will be conduced on Thursday to determine the strength and track of this, and potentially additional tornadoes that may have occurred.






It got pretty scary on the west side of Savannah (1.5 inches). On the east side there was barely any rain (.21 inches)
Quoting 406. Barefootontherocks:

RE: California drought levels..
Not shown real well in the graph at comment 376, going back a few months from one year ago, SIGNIFICANT drought IMPROVEMENT IS MORE evident:

October 28, 2014
81.92% D4-D5; 58.41% D5

Feb 2, 2016
63.9% D4-D5; 39.41% D5

Data from Drought Monitor traditional percent area for California going back to the year 2000


If one carefully picks particular historical dates for comparisons with the current situation, the case can indeed be made that things are much improved now. Or, by the same token, far worse. For instance:

August 6, 2013
0.00% D4-D5; 0.00% D5

Feb 2, 2016
63.9% D4-D5; 39.41% D5

...which is why it's always more truthful and correct to compare apples to apples. In this case, I went with the one-year difference, as that's explicitly listed on the drought monitor site.
Quoting 396. tampabaymatt:


Given what happened here, this should be a real rainmaker for wherever the front stalls out. I finished up with 3.54" in about nine hours of rain. They system has a history of tornadoes as well. Most of them have been in the northern half of the front except for the Ft. Stewart tornado in SE Georgia. Some street flooding and rises on the local creeks and rivers look pretty certain.
Quoting 383. 1Zach1:


A local Deputy Sheriff.
That department must have a weather geek somewhere in the ranks. My former department wouldn't have known if anything was coming more than 24 hours in advance, and that's only if enough people were shouting to the sheriff about it. :-)
Quoting 415. MrHul:


It got pretty scary on the west side of Savannah (1.5 inches). On the east side there was barely any rain (.21 inches)


Love Savannah,esp River Street St. Patricks Day.

We used to take the Bus down from MCAS,Beaufort,S.C. to there...a lot.

: )
Quoting 414. Drakoen:

Models are also showing interesting Miller B solution for mid next week:



What is a Miller B solution if you please? Does it have anything to do with the Beer?
Quoting 417. sar2401:

Given what happened here, this should be a real rainmaker for wherever the front stalls out. I finished up with 3.54" in about nine hours of rain. They system has a history of tornadoes as well. Most of them have been in the northern half of the front except for the Ft. Stewart tornado in SE Georgia. Some street flooding and rises on the local creeks and rivers look pretty certain.


Doesn't seem like we'll get much in the Tampa Bay area. The best dynamics for heavy rain are in the Big Bend area. Short term models show less than an inch for Tampa.

3.54" is quite a soaking! No doubt that aggravated the flooding issues in your area as I'm sure the ground is still saturated.
Quoting 411. tampabaymatt:

back on the rise?


-_-
Quoting 422. tampabaymatt:



Doesn't seem like we'll get much in the Tampa Bay area. The best dynamics for heavy rain are in the Big Bend area. Short term models show less than an inch for Tampa.

3.54" is quite a soaking! No doubt that aggravated the flooding issues in your area as I'm sure the ground is still saturated.


Yeah, it will be seen how much rain we see from Tampa to the south. SPC says no severe weather for today. Local meteorologist mentioned several times that the line is weakening as it moves down towards our area.

So anything more than just some basic rain showers will be a surprise to the professionals.
So leaving groundhogs out of the picture for a while. I just saw this article which may already have been commented on:-

Hurricane Patricia Had Maximum Sustained Winds of 215 MPH

Link
Quoting 416. Neapolitan:

If one carefully picks particular historical dates for comparisons with the current situation, the case can indeed be made that things are much improved now. Or, by the same token, far worse. For instance:

August 6, 2013
0.00% D4-D5; 0.00% D5

Feb 2, 2016
63.9% D4-D5; 39.41% D5

...which is why it's always more truthful and correct to compare apples to apples. In this case, I went with the one-year difference, as that's explicitly listed on the drought monitor site.


Also using year to year builds in a slight control for seasonal variation.
Quoting 421. HurriHistory:


What is a Miller B solution if you please? Does it have anything to do with the Beer?


lol. A low that tracks down from Canada and reforms off the eastern seaboard.
Hi everyone...I have a favour to ask. I know a good deal of you might have information and weblinks or particular books they know of in relation to this, so thought I would ask if anyone could forward me what they think has the best information. My largest project for my photography degree at the moment, is about seawalls. Now, I think my instructor wants history behind some in particular ones, but he knows of my environmental thoughts as well, and makes complete sense to include it into the project. So, am looking for the best, current places of info regarding sea level rises from global warming effects and storm surges in association with coastal protections, particularly concerning seawalls.

If anyone has anything in their links etc, I'd be very grateful and if you do, please WUmail me, as between my 3 different modules and my job, I've not had much time to read the blog comments, aside from skimming over them while having morning coffee, so would likely miss many. The extra plus in it, is all my classmates are stereotypical 18-21 year olds, who seem to have no idea or thought about environmental issues...or any issues much at all apart from fashion, sports, celebrities etc...so, am hoping it might stir some thought in at least one of them. Would definitely make it worth the extra work I'm bringing upon myself with doing this project, as opposed to something much more trivial.

Thanks much for even reading and even more so if you have the notion to send me any links! Cheers, Beverly
#428

How much will global sea level rise this century?
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:49 AM CDT on July 13, 2009


How much will global sea level rise this century?

Well, global sea level rise began in the late 1700s, and accelerated to 1.2 inches (3 cm) per decade over the past 25 years (see my post, Sea level rise: what has happened so far). If the conditions that led to this acceleration continue, we can expect sea level will rise an additional 1.1 ft (0.34 m) by 2100 (Jevrejeva et al., 2008). At a minimum, sea level rise during the 21st century should equal that of the 20th century, about seven inches (0.6 ft, 0.18 meters). This is the lower bound given by the IPCC in its 2007 assessment, which projected sea level rise of 0.6 - 1.9 ft (0.18 - 0.59 m) by 2100. However, they cautioned in their report that due to the lack of knowledge about how melting glaciers behave, the actual sea level rise might be higher.

There is a growing consensus that the 2007 IPCC sea level rise estimates are much too low.
ECMWF 12z seems to agree with the UKMET and CMC 12z runs for a possible Miller B mid next week with 7-12 inches possible.
Quoting 303. washingtonian115:

Something is ah spinning out in the Atlantic.Doubt we'll see much development from it though.
That's the think WKC was talking about the other day.... I was saying as that went through here earlier that it was pretty vigorous.
Quoting 428. mitthbevnuruodo:

Hi everyone...I have a favour to ask. I know a good deal of you might have information and weblinks or particular books they know of in relation to this, so thought I would ask if anyone could forward me what they think has the best information. My largest project for my photography degree at the moment, is about seawalls. Now, I think my instructor wants history behind some in particular ones, but he knows of my environmental thoughts as well, and makes complete sense to include it into the project. So, am looking for the best, current places of info regarding sea level rises from global warming effects and storm surges in association with coastal protections, particularly concerning seawalls.

If anyone has anything in their links etc, I'd be very grateful and if you do, please WUmail me, as between my 3 different modules and my job, I've not had much time to read the blog comments, aside from skimming over them while having morning coffee, so would likely miss many. The extra plus in it, is all my classmates are stereotypical 18-21 year olds, who seem to have no idea or thought about environmental issues...or any issues much at all apart from fashion, sports, celebrities etc...so, am hoping it might stir some thought in at least one of them. Would definitely make it worth the extra work I'm bringing upon myself with doing this project, as opposed to something much more trivial.

Thanks much for even reading and even more so if you have the notion to send me any links! Cheers, Beverly


Galveston Tx. has the incredible loss of life associated with it prior to the development of its sea wall..

But this is a picture of the sea wall in Corpus Christi, Texas. Corpus Christi also has a very interesting history associated with its very large sea wall.


Original waterfront in Corpus Christi. It's hard to believe the original downtown area had no protection from hurricanes.

Sorry no link. I had these images saved.


AXNT20 KNHC 041804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTED THIS
MORNING IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE TAIL OF A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA SW TO THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF N
AND NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY EARLY FRI MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE BASIN IS A 1011 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ATLC
WATERS NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N59W. THE LOW IS BEING SUPPORTED
BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 14N TO 27N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. THE LOW
WILL SHIFT SW TO NORTHERN PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THIS REGION FRIDAY. THEN WILL MOVE W TO OVER
HISPANIOLA SAT MORNING WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN INTO A SURFACE
TROUGH. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO SW N ATLC
WATERS THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH
EARLY SAT BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
Quoting 432. Sfloridacat5:



Galveston Tx. has the incredible loss of life associated with it prior to the development of its sea wall..

But this is a picture of the sea wall in Corpus Christi, Texas. Corpus Christi also has a very interesting history associated with its very large sea wall.


Original waterfront in Corpus Christi. It's hard to believe the original downtown area had no protection from hurricanes.

Sorry no link. I had these images saved.


Ooh thank you SFLcat, those are great images!

And to Pat thanks, I was def thinking of articles from the blog owners themselves :)
Quoting 428. mitthbevnuruodo:
Beverly, Try the wonder Blog links at the top of page. Lots of info,there. :) Peace.
428. mitthbevnuruodo
1:28 PM EST on February 04, 2016

Don't know of specific links (or whether you are limited to the US or the Word) but I would think that some of the best experts on sea walls are the Dutch given the below sea level situation for many parts of the Netherlands; I was in Antwerp (coastal town in Belgium) in the late-90's and the walls surrounding the port area near our hotel out in the bay were very impressive looking. I have also seen documentaries on the seawall system in that region on television. The site may-may not be in English but I would think that some of the Dutch port authority or governmental sites have information on their coastal barriers and they probably mention sea level rise (when the original purpose of the walls was to protect the lowlands from flooding and harbors from battering waves during rough North Sea storms)..................Just a thought.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 411. tampabaymatt:

back on the rise?


It's done folks, stick a fork in it, hello La Nina.
Quoting 416. Neapolitan:

If one carefully picks particular historical dates for comparisons with the current situation, the case can indeed be made that things are much improved now. Or, by the same token, far worse. For instance:

August 6, 2013
0.00% D4-D5; 0.00% D5

Feb 2, 2016
63.9% D4-D5; 39.41% D5

...which is why it's always more truthful and correct to compare apples to apples. In this case, I went with the one-year difference, as that's explicitly listed on the drought monitor site.
One good pick (your original at 376) deserves another. My choice of stats, though, shows the truth about the extent of improvement from the worst drought readings till now. Ludicrous to chose a date on August of 2013 when the point of discussion is drought improvement. California's current drought has eased considerably more than your comment at 376 indicates, and your inability to acknowledge that fact as shown in the data I posted at 406 suggests a likeness for... a Valentine's Day treat.

And for your plussers and Naga, a year-to-year comparison of drought stats is not a valid way of looking at drought improvement. The drought IS improving. The Sierra has a great snow pack - and that's a good thing.
Evening guys

444. admin
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