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Great Lakes Ice Cover Peaks at 2nd Highest Level on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:35 PM GMT on March 10, 2014

This winter's severe cold over the Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario--froze a near-record amount of ice this year. Ice coverage peaked at 92.2% on March 6, the 2nd highest ice cover on record, according to NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL). Dating back to 1977, only February 1979 (94.7% peak) had a greater ice coverage. Warmer temperatures this past weekend caused Great Lakes ice cover to dip to 91% as of Sunday, March 9, and temperatures in the 40s and 50s on Monday and Tuesday this week will further erode the ice cover. It is unlikely that the renewed cold blast expected later this week will be able to refreeze the lakes enough to break the 1979 Great Lakes ice cover record. On March 8th, the ice concentration on Lake Michigan reached a record high of 93.3%. The previous record was 93.1%, set in 1977, with records dating back to 1973. 


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of the Great Lakes on March 6, 2014. Two day later, on March 8, Great Lake ice cover peaked at 92.2%, the second highest coverage since record keeping began in 1977. Only Lake Ontario had large areas of ice-free water. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Ice coverage on Lake Michigan peaked at 93.3% on March 8, 2014, setting a new record for the lake. The previous record was 93.1%, set in 1977, with records dating back to 1973. Image credit: NOAA's Great Lake Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL).

Long-term trend: Great Lakes ice cover down 71% from 1973 - 2010
This year's near-record ice cover on the Great Lakes is a major departure from what happened in 2012, when the lakes' 5% coverage was the second lowest on record (the record low was set in 2002.) The long-term trend in recent decades is sharply downward; Great Lakes ice cover declined 71% between 1973 - 2010. A 2012 study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory found that the biggest loser of ice during the 1973 - 2010 time period was Lake Ontario, which saw an 88% decline in ice cover. During the same time period, Superior lost 79% of its ice, Michigan lost 77%, Huron lost 62%, and Erie lost 50%. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lake increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie showed almost no warming. The amount of warming of the waters in Lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan is higher than one might expect, because of a process called the ice-albedo feedback: when ice melts, it exposes darker water, which absorbs more sunlight, warming the water, forcing even more ice to melt. This sort of vicious cycle is also responsible for the recent extreme loss of Arctic sea ice. The increase in temperature of the lakes could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. They noted a pronounced 4-year and 8-year oscillation in ice coverage, which could be caused by the El Niño/La Niña and Arctic Oscillation (AO), respectively.

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Figure 3. A tale of two winters: Lake Superior was choked with ice at the end of the winter of 2013 - 2014 (top), but was virtually ice-free at the end of the winter of 2011 - 2012 (bottom.) Image credit: NASA.

Great Lakes water levels recover from record lows
The near-record ice levels are good news for Great Lakes water levels, which have suffered from record or near-record lows in recent years. In February 2013, Lake Michigan and Lake Huron set an all-time low water record, 29 inches below the long-term mean. This record was due, in large part, to the steadily declining winter ice coverage on the lake, which allows much more water to evaporate in winter. The latest U.S. Army Corps of Engineers water level forecast for the Great Lakes shows that Lake Michigan and Lake Huron water levels have recovered to be about 13" below the long-term March mean, and are forecast to rise another 3" over the coming month.

Lower water levels have had a significant impact on the Great Lakes economy. Over 200 million tons of cargo are shipped every year through the Great Lakes. Since 1998, when water levels took a severe drop, commercial ships were forced to light-load their vessels. For every inch of clearance that these oceangoing vessels lost because of low water levels, $11,000 - $22,000 in profits were lost per day. Hydropower plants have also been affected by low water levels; several New York and Michigan plants were run at reduced capacity, forcing them to buy higher priced energy from other sources, and passing on the higher costs to consumers. Ice loss is also likely to accelerate shoreline erosion because of the increase in open water, and promote more algal blooms. It is uncertain if the Great Lake water levels will continue to fall as the climate warms, since the region is expected to see an increase in precipitation over the coming decades. In Michigan, annual precipitation increased by about 10% between 1895 - 2013, according to the National Climatic Data Center.

References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.

Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Nice to see the Great Lakes recovering from record low levels.

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Thanks Dr. Masters! Going to be getting closer to the all-time snowiest winter record in Detroit after the next storm.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Thanks Dr. Masters! Going to be getting closer to the all-time snowiest winter record in Detroit after the next storm.

Still rooting for 16", would like to get 100" for the season. (my friends want to kill me tho, they don't agree lol)
The bench for picnic table (in the back yard) up north in Grayling was finally exposed again. Still got a lot of snow there.
Even in a warming world, you have localized or regional cooling events such as this one.

The amount of warming of the waters in Lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan is higher than one might expect, because of a process called the ice-albedo feedback: when ice melts, it exposes darker water, which absorbs more sunlight, warming the water, forcing even more ice to melt. This sort of vicious cycle is also responsible for the recent extreme loss of Arctic sea ice. The increase in temperature of the lakes could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. They noted a pronounced 4-year and 8-year oscillation in ice coverage, which could be caused by the El Niño/La Niña and Arctic Oscillation (AO), respectively.

Oh this is good information, these oscillations are what drive the hurricane/typhoon/cyclone seasons globally as well.
Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space. (see rules of the road)
Thank you Dr. Masters for the updated blog entry..
That's alot of ice..
I heard stories (early 1900's) of people making a living by cutting the ice and shipping it to the folks with the original "Ice Boxes"..
They would not succeed in the warming world in which are living in today..

I ran across this from today's NASA Image of the Day and thought I would share as it goes well with the subject of the blog..

Ice stringers..
I had no idea that this occurred..

Click on Image for complete article..



Snow-covered fields appear as geometric patterns on Lake Michigans Washington Island in this photograph taken by the crew of the International Space Station. The island is 9 km long (5.6 miles) and lies on Lake Michigans western shore, as a continuation of Wisconsins Door Peninsula. (Note that north is to the lower left in the image.)
Thanks Jeff...
Climate change. Even breaking snow and ice records too... We could be in for a wild ride.
Quoting 7. auburn:
Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space. (see rules of the road)


Hey Auby..
Much better avatar..
..

Edited: as it didn't sound just quite right.. :)
12welf '

From Documentation Plan:

RA IV HURRICANE COMMITTEE

THIRTY-SIXTH SESSION

CANCÚN , MÉXICO

7 TO 10 APRIL 2014


PROPOSED ACTION ITEMS by RSMC Miami (2014)

Excerpt:

In 2013, NHC was not ready to disseminate a graphical representation of the 5-day genesis forecasts.
Based on in-house experimentation during the season, NHC expects to be ready to go public with an
experimental 5-day genesis graphic in 2014. Workload constraints and other considerations,
however, will require some changes to the current 48-hour Graphical TWO. Rather than manually
produce two graphics, NHC will manually draw the 5-day graphic and the 48-hour graphic will be
produced automatically, based on information in the 5-day graphic. The 48-hour graphic will no
longer indicate the current locations of disturbances by encircling them; instead, locations of current
disturbances will be marked with an “X”. This is to avoid having marked areas refer to current
location on the 48-hour graphic but future location on the 5-day graphic.


Examples shown in the linked document.
Once in a decade the Great Lake freezes and the ice caves arise.

Here Tom and George explore the wonders offshore near Northport, Michigan : the tip of 'our mit's' little finger.

I saw this posted earlier, but here's a repost for the new blog:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice
MJO event forcing anomalous westerly flow o/Andes, tanking atmos. angular momentum. Atm to move back to La Nina pttrn



Should be just temporary..
Quoting 15. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I saw this posted earlier, but here's a repost for the new blog:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice
MJO event forcing anomalous westerly flow o/Andes, tanking atmos. angular momentum. Atm to move back to La Nina pttrn



Should be just temporary..
What?
From Robert Friedman’s Blog:

"We're Up All Night For the Climate"

Posted March 10, 2014

It’s not often that we see support in Congress for federal climate action, but this evening, 28 Senators, many of them members of the Senate Climate Action Task Force, will go to the Senate floor all night to do just that. While largely a symbolic gesture, these type of actions are much needed in Washington, where prominent elected officials continue to deny the existence of climate change. Just last week, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said that “for everybody who thinks it’s warming, I can find somebody who thinks it isn’t.”

Clearly, climate denialism is still very real in DC, and it needs to change fast.

That’s why these Senators’ all nighter for the climate is so important. "The cost of Congress' inaction on climate change is too high for our communities, our kids and grandkids, and our economy,” Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island said. “On Monday we’ll be sending a clear message: it’s time for Congress to wake up and get serious about addressing this issue.”


Note: The title of this post and the above caption are best read to the tune of Daft Punk's Get Lucky.

These Senators are standing up to big oil and polluters, and for a just, livable and more sustainable future. As a young person, I appreciate their actions and encourage them to continue to do even more, to step up and speak out as loud as possible. While often dysfunctional, Washington needs to wake up to the realities of the climate crisis that is banging on our door. Stand with these Senators and with future generations, click any of the links below to thank them directly for staying #Up4Climate!

----------

Tell Congress to Wake Up and Take Action on Climate Change

SIGN THE PETITION >>
Thanks Doc
Gillian

Hadi

Quoting 15. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I saw this posted earlier, but here's a repost for the new blog:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice
MJO event forcing anomalous westerly flow o/Andes, tanking atmos. angular momentum. Atm to move back to La Nina pttrn



Should be just temporary..


Dr Blake puts out an intriguing tweet.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 10 min
I'm now rooting on all the westerly wind bursts and hoping for a strong El Nino and cold Atlantic waters-- might as well go big or go home!

LUSI

Quoting 16. Gearsts:
What?

We should see a pause in the warming. High atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) is associated with an El Nino, while low AAM is associated with a La Nina. We're headed into a low AAM state for now.
Quoting 22. VR46L:
LUSI

The poor Kiwis need to let Lusi know she's headed the wrong way and get her to behave properly.
Quoting 20. VR46L:
Hadi




Good morning VR.. :)
Hadi looking healthy..
JWCT Remarks can be found HERE..





Quoting 23. TropicalAnalystwx13:

We should see a pause in the warming. High atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) is associated with an El Nino, while low AAM is associated with a La Nina. We're headed into a low AAM state for now.
But we we're suppose to be in El Niño by the end of March and a strong El Niño by July :)
Surface area Map for Australia

Quite the parade ...

Quoting 25. pcola57:



Good morning VR.. :)
Hadi looking healthy..



REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 151.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 100510Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION AS THE LLCC
MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
UPON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF AMBIGUITY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION AS
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS OFFSETTING STRONG TO MODERATE (20 TO 30 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC HADI IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG A WEAK PERIPHERY
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
NER IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ACCELERATE
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY RELAX, ALTHOUGH REMAIN AT
MODERATE LEVELS, AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLOW INTENSIFICATION REACHING 55 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS LARGELY SPREAD
WITH A 500NM SPREAD BY TAU 48. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 100200Z MAR
14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 100200). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Good Morning P'cola !

He doesn't seem to be showing on Willis Is Radar yet

Link
Quoting 24. NCstu:
The poor Kiwis need to let Lusi know she's headed the wrong way and get her to behave properly.


Yeah Its expected to be Quite an Extropical storm when it Gets to New Zealand !
Quoting 29. VR46L:


Good Morning P'cola !

He doesn't seem to be showing on Willis Is Radar yet

Link


Yeah that's 512km out too..
Kinda strange and scary at the same time..
Quoting 25. pcola57:



Good morning VR.. :)
Hadi looking healthy..
JWCT Remarks can be found HERE..







Oops I had already Quoted you before it was amended

Sorry !
Quoting 32. VR46L:


Oops I had already Quoted you before it was amended

Sorry !


Lol..
All good..
Thanks for the link..
I used to have it but seems like every Southern Hemisphere season I can't find it..
Has Aussie been on??
Special weather statement in effect for:
•Eastern Townships

Winter is not over, as snow and strong winds are expected on
Wednesday and Thursday.

A storm system will develop over the Southern United States on
Tuesday and move up the Appalachians toward the Maritimes on
Wednesday. The system's exact track remains uncertain, but models
agree that areas near New England, as well as the tip of the Gaspé Peninsula and the Lower North Shore, will be affected.



Snow will begin Wednesday over the Eastern Townships and is expected
to reach the Lower North Shore Thursday. Snowfall amounts could
exceed 15 cm in these regions and winds will cause blowing snow.



In the wake of the low pressure system, Arctic air will move into
most of Southern Quebec on Thursday and Friday. Cold temperatures and
winds will give January-like weather.



These conditions will have a definite impact on road conditions and
activities in southern and Eastern Quebec.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.
nam hr 72

cold arctic like


by hr 84 warm air rtn flow

7-day Tampa Bay area.......................
update on the snow storm and rain storm to
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
First


Scott, obviously you have not read the 'rules of the road'. Sigh.
M 6.9 - 77km WNW of Ferndale, California

PAGER - GREENShakeMap - VIIDYFI? - VITsunami Warning Center
Time2014-03-09 22:18:13 UTC-07:00Location40.829°N 125.134°WDepth16.6km
Quoting 2. StormTrackerScott:
Nice to see the Great Lakes recovering from record low levels.


Unfortunately one year is not enough to to change the downward trend to any kind of "recovery" trend. Even with 2014 added in, the current decade is almost tied with 2001-2010 as the decade with lowest Great Lakes ice cover on record. The previous three years were so low that today's near record kept the average that low. That's the real story.
Interesting video of newly discovered sea caves in southern Chile. Scientists found cave paintings and bone fragments. What they don't say in the video, is that the last time the sea level would have been low enough to allow human habitation was during the last ice age. So, around the same time as the Clovis culture, maybe.

Link

Quoting 23. TropicalAnalystwx13:

We should see a pause in the warming. High atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) is associated with an El Nino, while low AAM is associated with a La Nina. We're headed into a low AAM state for now.
ok
A little noon time reading...

Oil chiefs to suppliers: Your prices are too high

Stakes are high for LNG export plan

In Central Texas, Drought Threatens Hydropower

Fukushima still a grim time capsule three years after disaster

After Fukushima, Utilities Prepare for Worst

Study: Grass carp pose dangers for Great Lakes

Childhood love of space pays off with Mars study

And a quote for today:
“... there is no shame in not knowing. The problem arises when irrational thought and attendant behavior fill the vacuum left by ignorance.”
― Neil deGrasse Tyson, The Sky Is Not the Limit: Adventures of an Urban Astrophysicist
Quoting 33. pcola57:


Lol..
All good..
Thanks for the link..
I used to have it but seems like every Southern Hemisphere season I can't find it..
Has Aussie been on??


I havent seen him !

Have got Quite a few useful ones now
42 degrees here right now. Supposed to near 50. We need it after this awful winter.
Quoting 47. FunnelVortex:
42 degrees here right now. Supposed to near 50. We need it after this awful winter.


Did You get your blizzard?
Good Afternoon Folks.  Enjoyed a nice two days in South Florida this weekend.  The weather was spectacular with nice cool evenings/mornings, and moderate temps and sunshine all day on Sat and Sunday.  Very good illustration of how coastal cities/areas are moderated by warmer ocean temps near warmer ocean currents (think of the Gulf Stream that moderates temps from the Eastern Seaboard all the way around to parts of Northern Europe) as opposed to land-locked locations.  Northern Florida/Southern Georgia does not get that type of moderation until you get to the actual Gulf Coast or Eastern Seaboard so we feel the Continental cold pushes a  lot more up here as we have seen this season.

Now we wait for what the models spin up in terms of more winter systems over the next few weeks going into the severe weather spring period.  Need to keep a close eye on the continental jet stream patterns and how they set up for the remainder of March and April. 
Quoting 48. VR46L:


Did You get your blizzard?


No. Not even. All the good storms went to the east coast this year for some reason. What we got were constant clippers and constant persistent super cold with below zero lows days in a row.
Quoting 47. FunnelVortex:
42 degrees here right now. Supposed to near 50. We need it after this awful winter.
43 today 46 tomorrow then a quick shot
Quoting 8. pcola57:
Thank you Dr. Masters for the updated blog entry..
That's alot of ice..
I heard stories (early 1900's) of people making a living by cutting the ice and shipping it to the folks with the original "Ice Boxes"..
They would not succeed in the warming world in which are living in today..

I ran across this from today's NASA Image of the Day and thought I would share as it goes well with the subject of the blog..

Ice stringers..
I had no idea that this occurred..

Click on Image for complete article..



Snow-covered fields appear as geometric patterns on Lake Michigans Washington Island in this photograph taken by the crew of the International Space Station. The island is 9 km long (5.6 miles) and lies on Lake Michigans western shore, as a continuation of Wisconsins Door Peninsula. (Note that north is to the lower left in the image.)


Hey Marvin! MPart of my own family left Chicago October 15, 1871 in a 28ft sloop to go homestead in Florida. They were iced in on the Illinois River at Clear Lake and spent the winter cutting ice for the Price family that put them up. On spring thaw, they cruised down the Mighty Missip' and came to Florida..
Quoting 51. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
43 today 46 tomorrow then a quick shot


Heres a link to my forecast. It is gonna be warm today and tomorrow, and then colder for a day and warm again.

I'm ready for spring... This was not the winter I hoped for.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EDT Monday 10 March 2014
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:29.6 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:10 miles
Temperature:40.6°F
Dewpoint:30.6°F
Humidity:67%
Wind:WSW 9 mph
Quoting 53. FunnelVortex:


Heres a link to my forecast. It is gonna be warm today and tomorrow, and then colder for a day and warm again.

I'm ready for spring... This was not the winter I hoped for.


lots of action this winter
I am glad we are at the end of it
what ever it is
its the end of it for sure
Quoting 55. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


lots of action this winter
I am glad we are at the end of it
what ever it is
its the end of it for sure


It was too too cold... Did not get the big blizzard I wanted... They all followed the same path as the others this year...
Evening everyone!
Absolutely beautiful day here today, clear skies and warm temps of 13c (55F)
The days ahead look to be the same, finally this 'winter' is looking to be over


Took this photo yesterday


Snowdrops are even starting to bloom
Quoting 56. FunnelVortex:


It was too too cold... Did not get the big blizzard I wanted... They all followed the same path as the others this year...
right over my way and all points s se from here
Quoting 58. ZacWeatherKidUK:
Evening everyone!
Absolutely beautiful day here today, clear skies and warm temps of 13c (55F)
The days ahead look to be the same, finally this 'winter' is looking to be over


Took this photo yesterday


Snowdrops are even starting to bloom


very mild your way

Quoting 59. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
right over my way and all points s se from here


I really wish that at least one would have avoided the east and gave me a hit.

Shoveling after one big blizzard is better than shoveling after a clipper every two days.
Quoting 58. ZacWeatherKidUK:
Evening everyone!
Absolutely beautiful day here today, clear skies and warm temps of 13c (55F)
The days ahead look to be the same, finally this 'winter' is looking to be over


Took this photo yesterday


Snowdrops are even starting to bloom


Yes the Dafs came out here over the weekend .

But trying to get used to this strange golden disc and the sky being an unusual colour ,,,, Blue
Quoting 61. FunnelVortex:


I really wish that at least one would have avoided the east and gave me a hit.

Shoveling after one big blizzard is better than shoveling after a clipper every two days.


that ice miss you as well at the end of 13
Quoting 63. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


that ice miss you as well at the end of 13


A lot of pipes burst and a lot of cars didn't start this year.
Quoting 64. FunnelVortex:


A lot of pipes burst and a lot of cars didn't start this year.
yeah had the main go out on the building early feb no water for a day not even 6 hrs
April 9, 2011 Portland OR had its first sunny day after several months of rain and overcast, an unusual streak even for them.
The Oregonian sought to calm the bewildered populace with the headline, 'Scary-bright ball in sky will go away'.


Quoting 62. VR46L:

But trying to get used to this strange golden disc and the sky being an unusual colour ,,,, Blue

The coldest day for us this week will be Thursday.When we have only a high of 36.Then highs will go back ino the 60's for the week.I'm still eye looking ahead at next week.It may be all rain again.
Quoting no1der:
April 9, 2011 Portland OR had its first sunny day after several months of rain and overcast, an unusual streak even for them.
The Oregonian sought to calm the bewildered populace with the headline, 'Scary-bright ball in sky will go away'.




So true. I had the misfortune to spend part of the winter of 2004 in Seattle, and we never saw the sun for 51 days. The locals, however, couldn't understand my depression. They were feeling good that they hadn't had an ice storm. :-)
Quoting ZacWeatherKidUK:
Evening everyone!
Absolutely beautiful day here today, clear skies and warm temps of 13c (55F)
The days ahead look to be the same, finally this 'winter' is looking to be over


Took this photo yesterday


Snowdrops are even starting to bloom

Nice to see after the stormy winter you've had. Maybe tough winters are good for plats. My pear tree is more lush and beautiful than I've ever seen it before. Kinda tough on humans though. :-)
Quoting VR46L:


I havent seen him !

Have got Quite a few useful ones now

Aussie was on very early this morning for a bit. It's typhoon season there and a storm is going ashore close to this brother's house in Townville.
Quoting 67. washingtonian115:
The coldest day for us this week will be Thursday.When we have only a high of 36.Then highs will go back ino the 60's for the week.I'm still eye looking ahead at next week.It may be all rain again.
rain here on Wednesday for new haven,conn
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Unfortunately one year is not enough to to change the downward trend to any kind of "recovery" trend. Even with 2014 added in, the current decade is almost tied with 2001-2010 as the decade with lowest Great Lakes ice cover on record. The previous three years were so low that today's near record kept the average that low. That's the real story.

Scott, it's a beautiful day out today almost everywhere. It's sunny and 78 in SE Alabama, the warmest it's been since November. Just be happy things aren't getting worse for one day.
Quoting 73. hurricanes2018:
rain here on Wednesday for new haven,conn
I still have puddles around.This will only add insult to injury.
Pollen count on Friday was 32. Had been in 30s all week

2 days of 70s later.....

Today's pollen count is 944. I'm done. Still no pine but the more offensive Maple/Oak/Birch etc.

76F tomorrow so it'll skyrocket more before rain on Tuesday should wash some of this trash out.

Upper 50s and low 60s into the weekend will mean a more gradual pollen release. A couple 27-28F freezes.
We are still waiting on the clouds of pine pollen.

Leaves are beginning to come out
On an indirect weather related note, the weather does not appear to be an issue with the Malaysian airliner unlike the Air France flight a few years ago that may have hit some very bad turbulence in the ITCZ off the coast of Brazil.

That would leave a few possible scenarios; a terrorist act/bomb (with the two folks flying on the stolen passports), a military error in terms of a SAM or Intercept, or a catastrophic mechanical failure or fire up at 35,000 feet.  We will never know exactly what happened on board the plane unless they recover the black boxes but might get a clue to what happened "outside" the plane depending on what intelligence services/monitoring equipment may have picked up whether in the form of communications or sensors that they have to sort through.

I am thinking that falling debris would probably leave some sort of radar signature but do not know what the actual radar coverage would have been on the way down to the ground in that region.

Condolences to all of the families of the victims. 
Quoting 76. GeorgiaStormz:
Pollen count on Friday was 32. Had been in 30s all week

2 days of 70s later.....

Today's pollen count is 944. I'm done. Still no pine but the more offensive Maple/Oak/Birch etc.

76F tomorrow so it'll skyrocket more before rain on Tuesday should wash some of this trash out.

Upper 50s and low 60s into the weekend will mean a more gradual pollen release. A couple 27-28F freezes.
We are still waiting on the clouds of pine pollen.

Leaves are beginning to come out


Sound like your constitution is a fan of winter !



Climate Council report: More than 150 weather records broken last summer, climate change cited as reason

Updated Mon 10 Mar 2014, 1:52pm AEDT

Australia has endured another summer of searing temperatures, with more than 150 weather records broken, a new report shows.

The Climate Council's latest Angry Summer report analyses climate data from across the country for the 2013-2014 summer.

The report says Adelaide experienced 13 days above 40 degrees Celsius, including five days in a row above 42C.

2013-14 summer records included:

11 days above 42C in Adelaide

Driest summer for 45 spots in Qld & 38 in NSW

Sydney's driest summer in 27 years

20 days above 35C in Canberra

Source: Climate Council

The South Australian capital also had its hottest ever February day, reaching 44.7C.

While South Australia was described as the summer's "ground zero", it was also the driest summer on record for 38 spots in New South Wales and 45 in Queensland, while Sydney had its driest summer in 27 years.

Melbourne had its hottest 24-hour period, with an average temperature of 35.5C, and Perth had its hottest-ever night and its second-hottest summer on record.

The council's Lesley Hughes says the hotter, drier weather conditions are heightening the risks of bushfires.

"Bushfires, if they're started, are able to carry and spread faster, and more seriously and more intensely, the hotter and drier the conditions," she said.

"So if we have really hot days, dry weather that's dried out the fuel - those are the conditions that are conducive to bushfires spreading and causing really serious impacts."

Victoria's February fires burnt 280,000 hectares of land.

Ms Hughes, a Macquarie University professor, says the weather patterns are clearly due to climate change and governments need to address it as an issue.

"We're having difficulty dealing with it now; our children and grandchildren will be having a great deal more difficulty dealing with it in decades to come," she said.

"It's consistent with the predictions of what happens as the globe warms up.

"Climate change is making the whole weather system different to what it used to be and along with that is an increase in extreme events."

The council says the nature of heatwaves is changing, and they are now tending to start earlier, last longer and occur more frequently.

Some of the records were for above-average rain which fell over parts of Cape York Peninsula, the Northern Territory, Western Australia and along South Australia's coast.

The report called for "urgent and deep reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases" to stabilise the climate.

Professor Tim Flannery from the council says more heatwaves and other extreme weather are on the cards.

"The job now is to limit the damage to make sure we're not seeing half the summer over 35 degrees as the scientists are projecting and make sure that we can adapt to the changes that have happened so far," he said.
The top GFS analog for the midweek system continues to be March 14, 1993. However, the huge difference between that system and the upcoming one is that the March 1993 Storm of the Century was a low that came out of the Gulf; this low will be taking shape in the Great Plains and moving east-northeastward.

A powerful system regardless:

Quoting 17. Xandra:
From Robert Friedman’s Blog:

"We're Up All Night For the Climate"

Really? Mayb there up all night for more funding and government control.
Period
The sst anomalie analogs so far for 2014 are 2009 and 2012.

Quoting 83. SkulDouggery:


Ohh a conspiracy, better go get my tin foil hat!
Quoting 81. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Could you put up another wind map please. I tried to go to the site but I can't fill it like your maps do.
Quoting 84. Tropicsweatherpr:
The sst anomalie analogs so far for 2014 are 2009 and 2012.


It's pretty funny to see those two together. 2009 had the lowest number of tropical storms in 12 years, 2012 had the 3rd highest number of tropical storms on record.
Big storm across the SE US on the 12Z Euro with severe storms across FL.




building
South Pac taking over from the West Pac at the Moment

i guess tues night-wens morning we get yet another storm..
Quoting 88. StormTrackerScott:
Big storm across the SE US on the 12Z Euro with severe storms across FL.



Yay Scott got Imgur working ... BTW as far as I can tell that MLSP , and 850 mb stuff is ok to post by weatherbell , just be cautious with Precip maps ... Scott Euro wx is showing over 1000 kg of Cape for next Monday for South Florida !
gee just like last week................
Quoting 86. tramp96:

Could you put up another wind map please. I tried to go to the site but I can't fill it like your maps do.


max wind gust kmh hr 54 to hr 72 gfs 12z run




www.solarham.net

EVE X-Ray Image,



Updated 03/10/2014 @ 11:30 UTC
Solar Update / Moderate Activity
Good morning. Here is an updated look at the visible solar disk on Monday. Solar activity continues at moderate levels. Region 2002 located in the southeast quadrant continued to produce low level M-Flares and a number of minor C-Class flares. The active region continues to maintain a weak delta magnetic signature within the central portion of the group and could produce additional moderate flare activity. In the northern hemisphere, sunspot 1996 remains the other sunspot of interest and is currently producing minor C-Class flares.

New sunspots 2003 and 2004 were numbered overnight and are not considered a major threat for solar flares at this time. All other visible regions remain stable or in a state of decay. A couple of coronal mass ejections were observed during the past 24 hours and each appear to be directed away from Earth. One of these events was the result of a solar flare around old region 1986 currently transiting the farside of the sun. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.
Good Afternoon Peeps,
Thanks for the new Blog Post Dr. Masters.
Quoting 92. VR46L:


Yay Scott got Imgur working ... BTW as far as I can tell that MLSP , and 850 mb stuff is ok to post by weatherbell , just be cautious with Precip maps ... Scott Euro wx is showing over 1000 kg of Cape for next Monday for South Florida !


Tis the season as temps are getting warmer and the sun angle is getting higher.
yeah another stormy day for sure wens...........
Quoting 98. GeorgiaStormz:
Lol



FL would get whacked if that were to happen.
Quoting WaterWitch11:
M 6.9 - 77km WNW of Ferndale, California

PAGER - GREENShakeMap - VIIDYFI? - VITsunami Warning Center
Time2014-03-09 22:18:13 UTC-07:00Location40.829°N 125.134°WDepth16.6km

That quake was almost 24 hours ago. Thankfully, no tsunami was generated.
possible supercells south florida wenesday.....


WWW.GLOBALINCIDENTMAP.COM

Type: EarthQuake
4 hours ago
Magnitude: 2.6
DateTime: 2014-03-10 10:44:06
Region: Ohio
Depth: 5
Source: CSEM-EMSC Feed
Quoting 80. Patrap:


Climate Council report: More than 150 weather records broken last summer, climate change cited as reason

Updated Mon 10 Mar 2014, 1:52pm AEDT

Australia has endured another summer of searing temperatures, with more than 150 weather records broken, a new report shows.

The Climate Council's latest Angry Summer report analyses climate data from across the country for the 2013-2014 summer.

The report says Adelaide experienced 13 days above 40 degrees Celsius, including five days in a row above 42C.

2013-14 summer records included:

11 days above 42C in Adelaide

Driest summer for 45 spots in Qld & 38 in NSW

Sydney's driest summer in 27 years

20 days above 35C in Canberra

Source: Climate Council

The South Australian capital also had its hottest ever February day, reaching 44.7C.

While South Australia was described as the summer's "ground zero", it was also the driest summer on record for 38 spots in New South Wales and 45 in Queensland, while Sydney had its driest summer in 27 years.

Melbourne had its hottest 24-hour period, with an average temperature of 35.5C, and Perth had its hottest-ever night and its second-hottest summer on record.

The council's Lesley Hughes says the hotter, drier weather conditions are heightening the risks of bushfires.

"Bushfires, if they're started, are able to carry and spread faster, and more seriously and more intensely, the hotter and drier the conditions," she said.

"So if we have really hot days, dry weather that's dried out the fuel - those are the conditions that are conducive to bushfires spreading and causing really serious impacts."

Victoria's February fires burnt 280,000 hectares of land.

Ms Hughes, a Macquarie University professor, says the weather patterns are clearly due to climate change and governments need to address it as an issue.

"We're having difficulty dealing with it now; our children and grandchildren will be having a great deal more difficulty dealing with it in decades to come," she said.

"It's consistent with the predictions of what happens as the globe warms up.

"Climate change is making the whole weather system different to what it used to be and along with that is an increase in extreme events."

The council says the nature of heatwaves is changing, and they are now tending to start earlier, last longer and occur more frequently.

Some of the records were for above-average rain which fell over parts of Cape York Peninsula, the Northern Territory, Western Australia and along South Australia's coast.

The report called for "urgent and deep reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases" to stabilise the climate.

Professor Tim Flannery from the council says more heatwaves and other extreme weather are on the cards.

"The job now is to limit the damage to make sure we're not seeing half the summer over 35 degrees as the scientists are projecting and make sure that we can adapt to the changes that have happened so far," he said.


Interesting how CFS has Australia below average Jan 1st to March 10th on the 30 year average.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


max wind gust kmh hr 54 to hr 72 gfs 12z run





A 978 mb low off New England in three days? That just can't be right...I hope.
Quoting 100. StormTrackerScott:


FL would get whacked if that were to happen.


It would snow in the SE... ECMWF cools 850mb temps in SOUTH GA to -5C or so. I Loled.

Quoting 106. sar2401:

A 978 mb low off New England in three days? That just can't be right...I hope.


here is nam

Quoting jonger1150:


Interesting how this shows Jan 1st to March 10th as being below the 30 year average.


You can't hot link Weatherbell images. You have to copy them to a photo sharing account and link them from there.
Quoting 87. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's pretty funny to see those two together. 2009 had the lowest number of tropical storms in 12 years, 2012 had the 3rd highest number of tropical storms on record.


True but most of the stronger storms in 2012 occurred outside the MDR. Sandy being the big exception.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


here is nam


Is this low coming out of Canada or up from the south?
Quoting 112. sar2401:

Is this low coming out of Canada or up from the south?


up from plains takes off as it moves just south of lower lakes

ya got all the models so something is coming may have to wait till tonights 00z run to nail it down

models have been sorta all over the place
Quoting 106. sar2401:

A 978 mb low off New England in three days? That just can't be right...I hope.


There was a similar nor'easter a year ago. From Wiki:

The March 2013 nor'easter was a powerful nor'easter that affected much of the United States, most notably New England. On March 6, the system moved into the Mid-Atlantic region of the east coast, and intensified into a nor'easter, dumping up to 3 feet of snow in some places. The nor'easter knocked out power to about 250,000 homes and businesses, as of late March 6, 2013.

That one had a central pressure of about 986, so this one might be worse.
Troubling news to our already depleted Ozone Layer.

Mysterious new man-made gases pose threat to ozone layer

The four new gases have been identified as CFC-112, CFC112a, CFC-113a, HCFC-133a

CFC-113a has been listed as an "agrochemical intermediate for the manufacture of pyrethroids", a type of insecticide once widely used in agriculture

CFC-113a and HCFC-133a are intermediaries in the production of widely used refrigerants

CFC-112 and 112a may have been used in the production of solvents used to clean electrical components

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26485 048 to the entire article.

China urges Malaysia to intensify search for flight MH370

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26513506

Richard Westcott

BBC Transport Correspondent

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
This sudden disappearance is baffling experts. Pilots and investigators have described it as "weird" and "bizarre".

Most problems leave some kind of trace. If an aircraft's engines fail, it can still potentially glide for around 80 or 90 miles, giving the pilot time to radio a mayday call. If the cabin depressurises, maybe because it loses a window, the crew will rush to lose altitude, but the aircraft would not break up. Even if the pilots fell unconscious through lack of oxygen, the aircraft would keep flying and someone on the ground would notice it had gone quiet.

There are emergency codes pilots can enter if a hijacker's trying to break into the flight deck. And other aircraft flying around normally listen across to the emergency channel so they're likely to have heard any distress call. It all points to a sudden, catastrophic break-up in mid-air. But until they find the aircraft they will struggle to work out why.

Sounds like TWA flight 800 all over again, either that or a terrorist attack possibly involving a locked on missile to the plane. I don't think even a single bomb or pipe bomb could bring down a plane this big in an instant.
maybe it was the aliens

I mean its like they vanish into thin air
without a trace
Much needed but still isn't enough :(
Quoting 119. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe it was the aliens

I mean its like they vanish in thin air



Quoting 119. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe it was the aliens

I mean its like they vanish in thin air


Hey Keep..

229 families have been impacted by this event..joking about aliens when its possible that lives have been lost is quite insensitive..I'm sure if that was one of your family members you would hate to see or hear anyone say that..

Quoting jonger1150:


Interesting how CFS has Australia below average Jan 1st to March 10th on the 30 year average.

Let's be clear about the Climate Council of Australia. It's a private, non-governmental organization that claims to contribute non-political, non-biased information about climate change. The founder, Tim Flannery, is not a climatologist. None of the "Councillors" listed on their website is a climatologist. No climate science organization I'm aware of has linked any weather events directly to climate change. This website is run by climate activists, not scientists.
Quoting 119. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe it was the aliens

I mean its like they vanish in thin air
I was reading a comment that said maybe they turned back and turned off all communication and landed somewhere on a remote island. I mean what the heck we might as well throw out all possibilities. Not even a single piece from that plane has been found and it has been 3 days now.
Quoting 123. ncstorm:


Hey Keep..

229 families have been impacted by this event..joking about aliens when its possible that lives have been lost is quite insensitive..I'm sure if that was one of your family members you would hate to see or hear anyone say that..


no insult intended nc

just sayin

and to be honest if they were my family and they were telling me they simply disappeared

my first reply would

what so aliens took em or something there has to be something a floating seat cushion bodies

parts of the plane


you cannot say you would not be saying the same thing

I am sure a lot are
Quoting 51. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
43 today 46 tomorrow then a quick shot


Net result=36F (14mph)

and its sad that those people may never be found even if it is bodies

never be closure
Quoting sar2401:

Let's be clear about the Climate Council of Australia. It's a private, non-governmental organization that claims to contribute non-political, non-biased information about climate change. The founder, Tim Flannery, is not a climatologist. None of the "Councillors" listed on their website is a climatologist. No climate science organization I'm aware of has linked any weather events directly to climate change. This website is run by climate activists, not scientists.


I'm not really delving into the source, I'm just looking at the CFS global maps from Jan 1st through today and it has Australia slightly below the 30 yr average. The arctic and southern europe are notably above normal, but right as of now the global 30 year anomaly is -0.010C on the CFS year to date.
Quoting 126. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


no insult intended nc

just sayin

and to be honest if they were my family and they were telling me they simply disappeared

my first reply would

what so aliens took em or something there has to be something a floating seat cushion bodies

parts of the plane


you cannot say you would not be saying the same thing

I am sure a lot are


the last thing I would be thinking if someone told me a family member of mine along with several other hundred people were missing from a flight plan is of aliens..

you may want to head to CNN and see the anguish pictures of relatives and see if they are thinking of aliens..

I wonder about the mindset that is commented on this blog sometimes..
you like making mountains out of mole hills
"You can bet your giddy aunt that Rolls Royce monitor engine FADEC parameters in realtime via telemetry."

They may know a lot and are holding back till family members can be contacted and made aware.

But it is a difficult call, as the 777 was on secondary radar at the time and that only pings the transponder.

Industry has a fast inside tell on these things, and its really moot out there now.


NORAD, NRO may have some data as well as USAF Space Command
Quoting 118. GTstormChaserCaleb:
China urges Malaysia to intensify search for flight MH370

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26513506

Richard Westcott

BBC Transport Correspondent

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
This sudden disappearance is baffling experts. Pilots and investigators have described it as "weird" and "bizarre".

Most problems leave some kind of trace. If an aircraft's engines fail, it can still potentially glide for around 80 or 90 miles, giving the pilot time to radio a mayday call. If the cabin depressurises, maybe because it loses a window, the crew will rush to lose altitude, but the aircraft would not break up. Even if the pilots fell unconscious through lack of oxygen, the aircraft would keep flying and someone on the ground would notice it had gone quiet.

There are emergency codes pilots can enter if a hijacker's trying to break into the flight deck. And other aircraft flying around normally listen across to the emergency channel so they're likely to have heard any distress call. It all points to a sudden, catastrophic break-up in mid-air. But until they find the aircraft they will struggle to work out why.

Sounds like TWA flight 800 all over again, either that or a terrorist attack possibly involving a locked on missile to the plane. I don't think even a single bomb or pipe bomb could bring down a plane this big in an instant.


IMO bomb or missile is the only explanation.
Here is the current sat pic of the region off of the coast of Vietnam; clear as a bell it seems which should make it easier to try to locate any wreckage that may be out there on the surface somewhere:


Soufriere volcano in the island of Montserrat trying to wake up?

map looks just like last week for florida...stormy...
Quoting 136. StormTrackerScott:


IMO bomb or missile is the only explanation.


Or some other kind of traumatic explosion. Even the air France plane showed some signs of disaster moments before contact was lost
Quoting 136. StormTrackerScott:


IMO bomb or missile is the only explanation.


Even if it was a bomb, the plane would have fallen in (probably) one or two pieces. There should be wreckage floating on the surface near the point(s) of impact.
Other possibility may have been a mid-air collision with another aircraft or drone; you have to wonder if the Chinese are also using drones or testing them.  However, at that altitude, you would have to looking at the equivalent of a Global Hawk type of vehicle (like the ones on loan to Noaa on the US side of the equation for weather research and observation) assuming that the flight broke up at cruising altitude.  Miniscule chances of such a collision perhaps but not totally out of the realm of possibility.
Quoting 140. nwobilderburg:


Or some other kind of traumatic explosion. Even the air France plane showed some signs of disaster moments before contact was lost
one funny thing about this missing plane..IF it had engine failure the pilot would have time to radio in..IF it was a bomb and the plane exploded..there would be floating wreckage that would hve been spotted already..none of the experts can figure out what happened..at least publicly..only thing i can figure is the 2 iran people with stolen passports took over the aircraft and puposely crashed it into the ocean and it sank intact.. all die and no wreckage to float to the top....OR..it was landed at an unknown destination..flying below radar..and its in the hands of terrorists....who knows
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
China urges Malaysia to intensify search for flight MH370

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26513506

Richard Westcott

BBC Transport Correspondent

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
This sudden disappearance is baffling experts. Pilots and investigators have described it as "weird" and "bizarre".

Most problems leave some kind of trace. If an aircraft's engines fail, it can still potentially glide for around 80 or 90 miles, giving the pilot time to radio a mayday call. If the cabin depressurises, maybe because it loses a window, the crew will rush to lose altitude, but the aircraft would not break up. Even if the pilots fell unconscious through lack of oxygen, the aircraft would keep flying and someone on the ground would notice it had gone quiet.

There are emergency codes pilots can enter if a hijacker's trying to break into the flight deck. And other aircraft flying around normally listen across to the emergency channel so they're likely to have heard any distress call. It all points to a sudden, catastrophic break-up in mid-air. But until they find the aircraft they will struggle to work out why.

Sounds like TWA flight 800 all over again, either that or a terrorist attack possibly involving a locked on missile to the plane. I don't think even a single bomb or pipe bomb could bring down a plane this big in an instant.

Two similar crashes have happened since 2007. Air France flight 447 over the mid-Atlantic in 2009 and Adam Air flight 574 over Indonesia. In the two previous accidents, it 7-10 days to find the first wreckage and, in the case of AF447, years to recover the flight recorders. It's really not unusual that, less than 72 hours after the plane was reported missing, no debris has yet been found. I suspect the first debris will be found within the next three to four days.

All three of these flights involve different types of aircraft so there's no common denominator there. What does strike me as unusual is the bothe the Air France and Adam Air flights were operating in an area of convection and moderate to severe flight level turbulence. The weather was a contributor to both accidents, although pilot error was the main cause. MH370 was operating in clear skies with no turbulence reported by other aircraft in the area. Something happened to either cause a sudden structural failure or an out of control aircraft that ultimately crashed. None of these three aircraft sent a distress message, but that's also not unusual, as the pilots are trying to save the aircraft, not talk on the radio.

MH370 was equipped with a state of the art ACARS (Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System). This sends constant short text type messages back to Malaysian Airlines headquarters about almost every aspect of flight operations. The aircraft would have kept transmitting ACARS message until the auxiliary power system that keeps ACARS running no longer functioned or the satellite antenna quit working. A complete structural failure of the aircraft is about the only likely scenario for this to occur. I can't imagine that Malaysian doesn't have the ACARS messages preserved but they probably are not releasing them publicly. Those in command of the SAR operation probably have access to the data, and they release it to searchers based on location. As horrible as it may seem, the area between Vietnam and Thailand has thousands of fishing vessels at seas at any one time, and the last thing the SAR operation needs is any unauthorized vessels conducting their own search for any items of value they can retrieve.
Quoting 142. weathermanwannabe:
Other possibility may have been a mid-air collision with another aircraft or drone; you have to wonder if the Chinese are also using drones or testing them.  However, at that altitude, you would have to looking at the equivalent of a Global Hawk type of vehicle (like the ones on loan to Noaa on the US side of the equation for weather research and observation) assuming that the flight broke up at cruising altitude.  Miniscule chances of such a collision perhaps but not totally out of the realm of possibility.
i doubt that..no wreckage at all has been found and there are planes and alot of ships looking over the area...some wreckage would have stayed aflot
Quoting 143. LargoFl:
one funny thing about this missing plane..IF it had engine failure the pilot would have time to radio in..IF it mas a bomb and the plane exploded..there would be floating wreckage that would hve been spotted already..none of the experts can figure out what happened..at least publicly..only thing i can figure is the 2 iran people with stolen passports took over the aircraft and puposely crashed it into the ocean and it sank intact..this was all die and no wreckage to float to the top....OR..it was landed at an unknown destination..flying below radar..and its in the hands of terrorists....who knows


Is there anyway for an aircraft to cut off communications
New York JFK Weather at a Glance march 10 2014 at 4pm
Howard Beach, Queens
Elevation

7 ft
Station Select

Now
Mostly Cloudy

Temperature

54.1 °F

Feels Like 54.1 °F
nice weather in new York city

Quoting 145. LargoFl:
i doubt that..no wreckage at all has been found and there are planes and alot of ships looking over the area...some wreckage would have stayed aflot
As noted below, it might take weeks to find wreckage on the surface, if any, and lots of data to analize.  Even though they found the wreckage of the Air France flight on the surface quickly, it took months to go through all the data and they finally issued a pretty comprehensive report about six months later.

I do not remember but did they recover the black box in the Air France disaster?
Quoting LargoFl:
one funny thing about this missing plane..IF it had engine failure the pilot would have time to radio in..IF it was a bomb and the plane exploded..there would be floating wreckage that would hve been spotted already..none of the experts can figure out what happened..at least publicly..only thing i can figure is the 2 iran people with stolen passports took over the aircraft and puposely crashed it into the ocean and it sank intact.. all die and no wreckage to float to the top....OR..it was landed at an unknown destination..flying below radar..and its in the hands of terrorists....who knows

But why crash an airplane and have no group take credit? That defeats the whole purpose of terrorism. A 777 is a big airplane. It can't land at some grass strip. It's highly unlikely that an aircraft that size could have flown below radar for any distance. What does seem likely is that the aircraft entered the water more or less intact. A flight level breakup should have left tens of thousands of pieces of debris over a wide area, so it's more likely something would have been discovered, even by chance. Entering the water intact means searchers need to be at nearly the exact spot of impact before they see anything.
Quoting 148. weathermanwannabe:

As noted below, it might take weeks to find wreckage on the surface, if any, and lots of data to analize.  Even though they found the wreckage of the Air France flight on the surface quickly, it took months to go through all the data and they finally issued a pretty comprehensive report about six months later.

I do not remember but did they recover the black box in the Air France disaster?



But extended searches are sometimes needed. When Air France Flight 447 vanished over the Atlantic in June 2009, it took five days to find any wreckage, and almost two years to find the black boxes.


Link
Here we go again! Should bring DTW within a few inches of the all-time snowiest winter record.

MIZ063-069-070-075-076-082-083-110900-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.A.0003.140312T0400Z-140312T2000Z/
ST. CLAIR-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONRO E-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT HURON...PONTIAC...WARREN...
ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
338 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING AT RATES OF AN
INCH PER HOUR. TOTAL SNOWFALL OF AROUND 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF A DETROIT TO
ANN ARBOR LINE.

* WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

* TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
WIND CHILL READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

IMPACTS...

* ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND VERY SLIPPERY.

* VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR DUE TO BOTH FALLING AND BLOWING
SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

* PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8
Quoting weathermanwannabe:

As noted below, it might take weeks to find wreckage on the surface, if any, and lots of data to analize.  Even though they found the wreckage of the Air France flight on the surface quickly, it took months to go through all the data and they finally issued a pretty comprehensive report about six months later.

I do not remember but did they recover the black box in the Air France disaster?

Yes, they did. It took almost two years, three French nuclear subs, and several deep water submersibles. The flight recorder was found and recovered from water over 13,000 feet deep, the second deepest flight recorder recovery ever.
Quoting 149. sar2401:

But why crash an airplane and have no group take credit? That defeats the whole purpose of terrorism. A 777 is a big airplane. It can't land at some grass strip. It's highly unlikely that an aircraft that size could have flown below radar for any distance. What does seem likely is that the aircraft entered the water more or less intact. A flight level breakup should have left tens of thousands of pieces of debris over a wide area, so it's more likely something would have been discovered, even by chance. Entering the water intact means searchers need to be at nearly the exact spot of impact before they see anything.


I'm kinda agreeing with this point. The purpose of terrorism is to make a big show, so why blow it up, and not take credit.
so far no mention of tornado or waterspouts possible..
Quoting 154. nwobilderburg:


I'm kinda agreeing with this point. The purpose of terrorism is to make a big show, so why blow it up, and not take credit.
yeah maybe OR there was someone they wanted to make vanish on that plane..no credit would be needed then
Quoting 149. sar2401:

But why crash an airplane and have no group take credit? That defeats the whole purpose of terrorism. A 777 is a big airplane. It can't land at some grass strip. It's highly unlikely that an aircraft that size could have flown below radar for any distance. What does seem likely is that the aircraft entered the water more or less intact. A flight level breakup should have left tens of thousands of pieces of debris over a wide area, so it's more likely something would have been discovered, even by chance. Entering the water intact means searchers need to be at nearly the exact spot of impact before they see anything.


It's bizzare for sure considering the plane lost contact at 35,000.
Quoting 148. weathermanwannabe:

As noted below, it might take weeks to find wreckage on the surface, if any, and lots of data to analize.  Even though they found the wreckage of the Air France flight on the surface quickly, it took months to go through all the data and they finally issued a pretty comprehensive report about six months later.

I do not remember but did they recover the black box in the Air France disaster?
Yes, it took them 2 years to find the black box for Air France, keep in mind the battery life is usually 30 days.
Quoting 154. nwobilderburg:


I'm kinda agreeing with this point. The purpose of terrorism is to make a big show, so why blow it up, and not take credit.


Well, I don't believe anyone took 'credit' for the Lockerbie bombing.
Quoting nwobilderburg:


Is there anyway for an aircraft to cut off communications

A complete electrical failure will lead to the loss of most communications. However, the 777 has a redundant backup system for an emergency radio system and ACARS. However, the backup radio system only works with the VHF radio, not HF (High frequency) radios. HF is what most people know as shortwave, and is able to communicate over much longer distances than VHF. I don't know if VHF frequencies were in use at the point the aircraft disappeared or they were using HF. The ACARS should still have been working but, for the reasons I outlined in a previous post, that information is probably not public.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #26
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC GILLIAN (14U)
5:03 AM CST March 11 2014
=============================================

At 3:30 AM CST, Tropical Low, Former Gillian (1004 hPa) located at 14.8S 141.6E or 75 km north of Kowanyama and 100 km south of Cape Keerweer has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Ex-TROPICAL CYCLONE GILLIAN is located near the Cape York Peninsula west coast. It is expected move in a southward direction near the coast during Tuesday before taking a more westward turn across the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria later today and during Wednesday.

GALES are not expected during the next 24 hours but may develop during Wednesday as the low re-develops into a tropical cyclone. The system is expected to continue developing slowly until Thursday, when it will take a more northerly track and begin to weaken.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 15.3S 141.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 15.6S 140.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 16.1S 138.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 15.5S 138.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================

The low level center lies close to the west coast of Cape York Peninsula and has been located using radar images from Weipa, however confidence in this position is low. DT has been difficult to establish given landfall with MET 2.0 and PT 1.5. Final T based on MET, with CI held at 2.0.

In the short term, Ex-Tropical cyclone Gillian is expected to track in a south southwest direction during Tuesday morning while under the influence of a weakening mid-level ridge situated near the Solomon Islands. During Tuesday, mid-level ridging to the south of the system is expected to dominate and steer it west southwestward.

Ex-Tropical cyclone Gillian is currently under the influence of moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear and close to land, which is inhibiting any further intensification at the present time. The environment should remain relatively hostile for further development in the short term, however as Gillian continues to move over open water it is anticipated that wind shear will also gradually decrease, allowing the system to re-intensify on Wednesday. As the system continues west-southwest over warm sea surface temperatures, it will continue to experience favorable environmental conditions and may intensity into a category 2 system on Thursday morning as it moves under an upper ridge.

Later on Thursday a mid level trough is forecast to amplify over southeast Australia, steering the system north and directing dry air towards the system along its western flank. This is also expected to shear the mid level circulation away from the low level center. This deteriorating environment is expected to cause the system to weaken below cyclone intensity later on Friday as it moves northwest through the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gillian is quite a small sized system, which in the right environment could make it more susceptible to rapid intensity fluctuations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===================================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Port McArthur to Burketown, including Mornington Island and Borroloola

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #7
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUSI, CATEGORY ONE (18F)
6:00 AM FST March 11 2014
=========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Lusi, Category One (987 hPa) located at 15.5S 167.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots. Position fair based on hourly multispectral enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Overall organization has improved past 24 hours. Deep convection remains persistent. Primary bands trying to wrap around low level circulation center System lies under an upper ridge and in a low sheared environment. Outflow good to the north and south. Sea surface temperatures around 30C

Dvorak analysis based on 0.5 wrap with a white band on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=3.0, MET=3.0 and PT=3.0. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 16.0S 169.0E - 55 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.7S 170.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 19.5S 174.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE HADI, CATEGORY ONE (13U)
5:04 AM EST March 11 2014
=============================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Hadi, Category One (997 hPa) located at 18.5S 151.9E or 375 km northeast of Hamilton Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
30 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 17.8S 152.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.5S 153.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 13.9S 157.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 11.9S 162.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================

The location is based surface observation analysis, microwave passes and persistence. Deep convection has become sporadic over the past 12 hours, with brief blooms on the southwestern flank of the system, but overall there is much less vigorous convection and cold cloud coverage than 24 hours ago. The low level circulation center remains near the edge of the remaining cold cloud tops, and using shear patterns on imagery over the last 3 hours yields DTs 3.0. MET is now 2.5, and PAT is 2.5, based on a W- trend. FT and CI are set to 3.0. ADT is general agreement with CIs of 2.7 to 2.8.

There is relatively high certainty in the track forecast, with most models indicating a brief shift to a more northerly track in the short term, and then a resumption of the northeast track with some increase in forward speed during the day on Tuesday as the system interacts with the broad mid level trough over the southern Coral Sea.

The intensity forecast calls for little change in strength, with most models continuing to depict at least moderate vertical shear over the system, dry air in the north of the circulation, and lack of intensification. STIPS guidance generally retains an intensifying trend despite depicting the moderate to strong vertical shear, and this leads to considerable scepticism in this guidance.
Investigation seems to be surrounding the 2 guys that boarded the plane with stolen passports per CNN. Several news agencies are reporting the the 2 guys with stolen passports weren't Asian decent.
Thanks for allowing us (moderators) to talk a about this tragedy. Found a good article with info from an attorney who represented family in the Air France disaster and another one. Here is a blurb and the link below. This is going to take some time and thanks for the info on the black box for Air France; I did not realize that it took 2 years to recover....................................... :(

The keys in the coming days will be to precisely locate any wreckage,retrieve the bodies and recover parts of the plane to find clues about what happened.The reason Marks speculates there was a catastrophic problem at 35,000 feet is as a result of his work on the case of Air France Flight 447.

Besides radar tracking of the plane, the Air France Airbus A-330 signaled flight errors to the manufacturer's headquarters in France. The equipment reported problems with height and airspeed as they were happening in a storm dozens of warnings in the flight's final minutes which helped track where it went down, Marks said."They knew in real time that these failures were occurring," Marks said.


The Boeing 777 should have been relaying similar reports of any problems if there were any, Marks said. But a lack of reports is why Marks speculates there was a catastrophic failure, perhaps from the plane breaking up, from a lack of pressurization or from a complete electrical failure.
"There would have been some type of reporting, whether through the radios or the computer system," Marks said. "The complete absence of any information suggests a catastrophic failure."


Link
Quoting yonzabam:


Well, I don't believe anyone took 'credit' for the Lockerbie bombing.

Because the aircraft blew up over land instead of the ocean. The timer was set for when the aircraft should have been over water, but ground delays led to the aircraft exploding over Lockerbie. The plan was for a Libyan front group to take responsibility, with plausible deniability for the Libyan government itself, since the assumption was no evidence would be found to tie the bombing back to Gaddafi. When it blew up over Lockerbie, Gaddafi kept his mouth shut. There were four (false) claims of responsibility within 24 hours of the explosion. I have not heard of any group yet trying to take responsibility, although that information may not be public.
Good evening from more than sunny Germany (at least before sunset, lol) with a side glance to Israel:

Tel Avivians run for cover as wild weather hits the country
Jerusalem Post, today.
One of Israel's driest winters on record saw rain and thunderstorms fall in various parts of the country on Monday.
Hail and a sudden burst of showers sent Tel Avivians running for cover just after noon while the north and center regions of the country experienced similar weather.
The wild weather gradually weakened through the day.
Rain fell Saturday throughout the country with scattered showers on Sunday stretching from north of the Sea of Galilee to the southern Negev.
Due to floods in the desert, police closed Highway 40 from The Zin Valley to Mitzpe Ramon on Sunday afternoon.
After prolonged drought conditions, weather forecasters said it would take large amounts of rain to cause the country's streams to flow and for the level of the Sea of Galilee to rise. The low rates of flow in the streams was among the lowest ever recorded for this time of year.
During February, there was primarily a single episode of rain that impacted the water, and Lake Kinneret rose only 2 centimeters – in comparison to 37 centimeters in the same period last year. Since the beginning of the rainy season, the Kinneret had only risen 4 centimeters, in comparison to 1.97 meters during the same period last year, data from the Water Authority revealed.
Rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue on Tuesday and Wednesday as well. Temperatures will remain unusually low for the season. ...

Whole article see link above.



Satellite doesn't show significant clouds at present. But here is the accumulated precipitation forecast for the next week in the Eastern Mediterranean (GFS). Hope they'll get some decent rains before the summer heat will start.

Quoting 164. sar2401:

Because the aircraft blew up over land instead of the ocean. The timer was set for when the aircraft should have been over water, but ground delays led to the aircraft exploding over Lockerbie. The plan was for a Libyan front group to take responsibility, with plausible deniability for the Libyan government itself, since the assumption was no evidence would be found to tie the bombing back to Gaddafi. When it blew up over Lockerbie, Gaddafi kept his mouth shut. There were four (false) claims of responsibility within 24 hours of the explosion. I have not heard of any group yet trying to take responsibility, although that information may not be public.
Actually what I heard with that one was the timer was set for when there was a change in pressure.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thanks for allowing us (moderators) to talk a about this tragedy. Found a good article with info from an attorney who represented family in the Air France disaster and another one. Here is a blurb and the link below. This is going to take some time and thanks for the info on the black box for Air France; I did not realize that it took 2 years to recover....................................... :(

The keys in the coming days will be to precisely locate any wreckage,retrieve the bodies and recover parts of the plane to find clues about what happened.The reason Marks speculates there was a catastrophic problem at 35,000 feet is as a result of his work on the case of Air France Flight 447.

Besides radar tracking of the plane, the Air France Airbus A-330 signaled flight errors to the manufacturer's headquarters in France. The equipment reported problems with height and airspeed as they were happening in a storm dozens of warnings in the flight's final minutes which helped track where it went down, Marks said."They knew in real time that these failures were occurring," Marks said.


The Boeing 777 should have been relaying similar reports of any problems if there were any, Marks said. But a lack of reports is why Marks speculates there was a catastrophic failure, perhaps from the plane breaking up, from a lack of pressurization or from a complete electrical failure.
"There would have been some type of reporting, whether through the radios or the computer system," Marks said. "The complete absence of any information suggests a catastrophic failure."


Link

Although, let me stress again, lack of public information. It's completely normal that not all information in the hands of those in charge of the search is not released immediately to the public.
Quoting 165. opal92nwf:
Good day!

Atlantic Hurricane Season 2014 Countdown

Atlantic Hurricane Season 2014 Promo
LOL, you just can't wait for Hurricane Season.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Actually what I heard with that one was the timer was set for when there was a change in pressure.

Both. There was a barometric fuse and a timer. When the barometric fuse didn't activate, the time fuse did. Barometric fuses aren't always accurate when the bomb is in a luggage hold, so sophisticated terrorist use a time fuse as a backup. The ground delay is what cause the carefully rehearsed plan to fail.
171. VR46L
82 days !

But I think it will be earlier .... I am thinking early May .. Might even see a cane like Chris ( I know Chris was a June cane ) in 2012 before the season offically starts !



172. VR46L
Quoting 169. GTstormChaserCaleb:
LOL, you just can't wait for Hurricane Season.


I think we might see lots of Weather online CFS interpretations in April !
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Investigation seems to be surrounding the 2 guys that boarded the plane with stolen passports per CNN. Several news agencies are reporting the the 2 guys with stolen passports weren't Asian decent.

I read that the video tape showed the two people in question were Asian in appearance. There are numerous "stories" floating around the net, some directly at odds with one another. Having been on the other side of search operations, I tend not to believe much in the media until it's confirmed by an official agency.
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah maybe OR there was someone they wanted to make vanish on that plane..no credit would be needed then

Certainly possible. I'm certain that both the Malaysian authorities and the FBI are looking into this. There's also a possibility that, if there was indeed a bomb, this was part of an insurance scheme. Anyone who took out a large insurance policy in the last six months or so is going to be subject to a lot of scrutiny.
Quoting 138. Tropicsweatherpr:
Soufriere volcano in the island of Montserrat trying to wake up?


did it ever go to sleep?
Quoting LargoFl:
so far no mention of tornado or waterspouts possible..

Let's hope not. Florida has had more than its share of tornadoes and waterspouts for it being winter and all.
Quoting 101. sar2401:

That quake was almost 24 hours ago. Thankfully, no tsunami was generated.

thanks for the timeline
The plane was last known to be 35,000 feet above the ocean. If it was a bomb, I doubt there would be debris of any kind by the time the remains reached the surface. That's a long way up; I'd imagine it would all disintegrate.
Quoting 174. sar2401:

Certainly possible. I'm certain that both the Malaysian authorities and the FBI are looking into this. There's also a possibility that, if there was indeed a bomb, this was part of an insurance scheme. Anyone who took out a large insurance policy in the last six months or so is going to be subject to a lot of scrutiny.
yes alot of mystery in this event huh..
180. VR46L
Saw this on Twitter

Owly Images
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Soufriere volcano in the island of Montserrat trying to wake up?


Monserrat was a really beautiful island before Hugo hit in 1989 and Soufrière blew in 1995. It's never really stopped since then, although it's calmed down enough that a few thousand of Montserrat's former residents have moved back. I hope it's not about to start up again.
5 plusses for aliens..wow..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The plane was last known to be 35,000 feet above the ocean. If it was a bomb, I doubt there would be debris of any kind by the time the remains reached the surface. That's a long way up; I'd imagine it would all disintegrate.

Actually, it's just the opposite. A bomb would lead to explosive decompression, and thousands of pieces of debris would rain down, including floating debris like seat cushions and insulation. There wouldn't be much debris if the aircraft entered the water intact but what debris there was would tend to be larger. AF447 entered the water almost intact and the first debris located was a large section of the vertical stabilizer.

Quoting 110. wxgeek723:


True but most of the stronger storms in 2012 occurred outside the MDR. Sandy being the big exception.


...And Sandy was simply a political headliner, Cat 1 storm good for convenient photo-ops. :-o
Quoting LargoFl:
yes alot of mystery in this event huh..

Yes, there is. Still, we just assume that something should have been found by now. Previous overwater crashes show that a week isn't at all uncommon before debris is located. Even with the apparent large number of vessels and aircraft involved in the search, they are small in terms of the total area to be searched, and we're not even sure if they are in the right location. I really feel for the families and friends. It was heartbreaking to tell them, day after day, that we just didn't have anything new. :-(
Quoting 117. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



-- Uh-oh, see the bottom of the map? Looks like a Low in the So. GOM! (Haha)
(Hey, it won't be too long before we have to be on our toes about that sort of thing, again.)
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EDT Monday 10 March 2014
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:29.5 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:10 miles
Temperature:44.2°F
Dewpoint:32.0°F
Humidity:62%Wind:SSW 9 mph
Quoting 180. VR46L:
Saw this on Twitter

Owly Images


I asked a couple months ago when Galveston? froze over are we looking at a big pushback from the tropics this year? I'm already seeing a lot of tele-connected weather in the last month. In Centex, the setup is for rain, but it's up high and can't work its way down for a couple weeks now.
Nam at 57 hours would indicate snow in the big cities.
NWS doesn't seem to agree and thinks the precipitation will be moving out before the cold air moves in Late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
NWS calling for slight accumulations for New York City.
Further Inland a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for upstate NewYork.
nam 18z





Watches, Warnings, Advisories
nwobilderburg #154 wrote:
"I'm kinda agreeing with this point. The purpose of terrorism is to make a big show, so why blow it up, and not take credit."

As long as we are speculating about the lost Malaysian aircraft, there may also be other considerations. It might seem strange, but the threatening situation in the Ukraine might make Russia a target for some aggressive action. For example, what if the US has some weapon orbiting in space which could vaporize an aircraft, leaving little trace? Demonstrating such a device on the other side of the Earth would send a rather strong signal, both to Russia and China, without alarming the population about other uses of such a device. When the wreckage is found, such speculation will (it's hoped) be quickly forgotten.
cold air hr 66 18z nam



by hr 84 already being pushed out

signs of a sun getting stronger now

cold air is losing the battle

Quoting 169. GTstormChaserCaleb:
LOL, you just can't wait for Hurricane Season.

Well that's when this blog is alive!! (:
Quoting 181. sar2401:

Monserrat was a really beautiful island before Hugo hit in 1989 and Soufrière blew in 1995. It's never really stopped since then, although it's calmed down enough that a few thousand of Montserrat's former residents have moved back. I hope it's not about to start up again.


In general terms,the volcano has been semiactive for many months but sometimes it throws out more ash as it has done today. But what it does when the wind comes from the SE is to send ash to the northern Leewards,VI and PR.
Quoting EricGreen:
nwobilderburg #154 wrote:
"I'm kinda agreeing with this point. The purpose of terrorism is to make a big show, so why blow it up, and not take credit."

As long as we are speculating about the lost Malaysian aircraft, there may also be other considerations. It might seem strange, but the threatening situation in the Ukraine might make Russia a target for some aggressive action. For example, what if the US has some weapon orbiting in space which could vaporize an aircraft, leaving little trace? Demonstrating such a device on the other side of the Earth would send a rather strong signal, both to Russia and China, without alarming the population about other uses of such a device. When the wreckage is found, such speculation will (it's hoped) be quickly forgotten.

Why demonstrate such an unknown weapon and not tell anyone? Why use it against a civilian airliner that has no apparent connection to the Russia/Ukraine situation when it could have been used against a Russian transport flying troops and equipment into Crimea?

This is not directed against you but regards other really bizarre speculation I've read elsewhere on the net. I've seen everything from some government deliberately shooting down the plane with a missile to a secret program to put chemicals into the air that make jet engines fail and the people on board the plane suffocate. It's hard enough for all those with loved ones on this flight to cope with the death of those dear to them. It's really hard when they read wild stories that these people were deliberately killed. I know it won't stop, but I do wish people would think of the real humans that are involved with this tragedy.
Upstate N.Y.

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
427 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

NYZ032-033-042-082-110500-
/O.UPG.KALY.WS.A.0005.140312T1100Z-140313T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KALY.WS.W.0005.140312T1100Z-140313T1500Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN FULTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...
WARRENSBURG...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD
427 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM
EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO
11 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. SNOW MAY MIX WITH SOME SLEET AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY.


* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BECOME
HEAVY AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. IT WILL TURN WINDY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL MAKE FOR
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TRAVEL.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE 20S...FALLING TO THE TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
Euro with another system a week out.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


In general terms,the volcano has been semiactive for many months but sometimes it throws out more ash as it has done today. But what it does when the wind comes from the SE is to send ash to the northern Leewards,VI and PR.

I was just reading an article about a little island in the Grenadines called Kick ‘em Jenny. It got its name from the wind that comes up suddenly when you sail past the island, but it's an active volcano that has caused some major tsunamis in the past. It's just one of many in the Caribbean, both islands and submarine volcanoes, that can and have caused big problems in the past. It would be ironic if, while we're concerned about hurricane destruction, the real disaster was one of these major tsunamis.
Quoting 196. opal92nwf:

Well that's when this blog is alive!! (:


Something tells me we are going to have an early season.. pendulum swing back to big moisture.

Wishcastin, I know... but I am wishcasting for Centex.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Upstate N.Y.

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
427 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

By this time of year, people in upstate New York about ready to kill someone if the snow doesn't stop. I'd avoid hanging out at a bar and talking about snow records over the next week or so. :-)
Quoting redwagon:


Something tells me we are going to have an early season.. pendulum swing back to big moisture.

Wishcastin, I know... but I am wishcasting for Centex.

Is it 2013 again? :-) Seriously, though, I do hope Texas can finally get some decent rain, even if it takes a tropical storm.
MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:49 PM PDT on March 10, 2014
Clear
81 °F
Clear
Humidity: 13%
Dew Point: 26 °F
Wind: 5 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 10.0 mph
Pressure: 29.98 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 79 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 8 out of 16
Pollen: 8.20 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft



Someone suggested on the News this morning that Summer was coming early. It is currently 80.1 here today...
Quoting 200. hydrus:
Euro with another system a week out.
are ya starting to notice less dense of cold air with warm air following behind the systems after the brief cool down
Quoting 203. sar2401:

By this time of year, people in upstate New York about ready to kill someone if the snow doesn't stop. I'd avoid hanging out at a bar and talking about snow records over the next week or so. :-)


Yeah, I was reading today that Mount Washington is 3 feet over their normal average snowfall for this time in the season.
"They make Boss Hogg look like a Sunday school teacher," says sheriff

Hampton FL, and why it's not a tourist destination.
I would say to the families of these passengers to not give up hope until there is wreckage found, for all we know the plane could have landed somewhere else and the passengers might be held hostage, although a longshot it has happened before.
Quoting 193. EricGreen:
nwobilderburg #154 wrote:
"I'm kinda agreeing with this point. The purpose of terrorism is to make a big show, so why blow it up, and not take credit."

As long as we are speculating about the lost Malaysian aircraft, there may also be other considerations. It might seem strange, but the threatening situation in the Ukraine might make Russia a target for some aggressive action. For example, what if the US has some weapon orbiting in space which could vaporize an aircraft, leaving little trace? Demonstrating such a device on the other side of the Earth would send a rather strong signal, both to Russia and China, without alarming the population about other uses of such a device. When the wreckage is found, such speculation will (it's hoped) be quickly forgotten.


Alex Jones please.... why attack some random aircraft. This is pointless conspiracy talk.
Quoting 210. nwobilderburg:


Alex Jones please.... why attack some random aircraft. This is pointless conspiracy talk.


And in regards to my name, im not a conspiracy nut
Quoting 178. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The plane was last known to be 35,000 feet above the ocean. If it was a bomb, I doubt there would be debris of any kind by the time the remains reached the surface. That's a long way up; I'd imagine it would all disintegrate.
Quoting 183. sar2401:

Actually, it's just the opposite. A bomb would lead to explosive decompression, and thousands of pieces of debris would rain down, including floating debris like seat cushions and insulation. There wouldn't be much debris if the aircraft entered the water intact but what debris there was would tend to be larger. AF447 entered the water almost intact and the first debris located was a large section of the vertical stabilizer.



I don't think 35,000 feet is high enough to burn anything, though. That's what I was trying to explain to Scott earlier. If this was a bomb, we would have found a large debris field with lot of light objects floating. It's more likely that there is small debris field, if we got one, but the bomb idea isn't totally dead because they could be searching in the wrong place. We'll see if the rumor of debris field southeast of Vietnam true or not and if it is from MH370 or not...
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I would say to the families of these passengers to not give up hope until there is wreckage found, for all we know the plane could have landed somewhere else and the passengers might be held hostage, although a longshot it has happened before.

We tried to be honest with family member and made sure they understood the probabilities that their relatives were still alive, but no probability is 100% until we had recovered remains. As you say, it's a long shot, but grieving people need long shots to hang onto until the long shot no longer exists.
Quoting nwobilderburg:


Alex Jones please.... why attack some random aircraft. This is pointless conspiracy talk.

There's lots of that going around now. Someone can always find a way to profit from any event.
Quoting Bluestorm5:


I don't think 35,000 feet is high enough to burn anything, though. That's what I was trying to explain to Scott earlier. If this was a bomb, we would have found a large debris field with lot of light objects floating. It's more likely that there is small debris field, if we got one, but the bomb idea isn't totally dead because they could be searching in the wrong place. We'll see if the rumor of debris field southeast of Vietnam true or not and if it is from MH370 or not...

They are, I'm sure, searching with the same or similar software that we used. The more passes in the same area with no evidence, the less likely that search area becomes and the more likely previous low probability areas start to become. They will expand the search area as the current search areas yield no clues. This is the most frustrating - and time consuming - type of search. You're sure you're in the right area but, as nothing shows up, you have to assume you're wrong. This happens way more times in missing aircraft (or person) searches than most people realize.
Quoting nwobilderburg:


And in regards to my name, im not a conspiracy nut

Oh, sure. We know about you and your Illuminati membership. Cody said he saw you coming from a meeting with one of those tinfoil hats. :-)
Thanks to everyone for their thoughts and views.
We are decending into summer here now and the temps are rising all over the place.
Looks like we might be having a very hot summer here from all the signals in our area.
Howling gales are still with us but at least they are warm, not a single frost was observed by us during the winter but a few claimed to have to scape ice off their wind shields, they may have been scare mongers.

Nothing more to report from our zone as of now. More later no doubt.
Quoting 204. sar2401:

Is it 2013 again. :-) Seriously, though, I do hope Texas can finally get some decent rain, even if it takes a tropical storm.


I lived out on the N.W. side of San Antonio for about 10 years of my life. I remember several epic floods. That area is very rocky and flash floods like crazy when it rains hard.

Pretty unique area there. South and east of San Antonio you're into humid coastal plains. Just west of San Antonio you're into semi-arid desert. I really liked just driving around exploring the areas north and west of the city.



Quoting 216. sar2401:

Oh, sure. We know about you and your Illuminati membership. Cody said he saw you coming from a meeting with one of those tinfoil hats. :-)

i guess the secrets out, lol
Nice bulls-eye for 3 feet of snow for Vermont & New Hampshire. Would love to be on Mt. Washington for this storm !!

Quoting 220. Chucktown:
Nice bulls-eye for 3 feet of snow for Vermont & New Hampshire. Would love to be on Mt. Washington for this storm !!



I live half way between Manchester and Portsmouth and we're close but not up that high. Expecting around 8 inches here with winds 50mph or so. Up on Mt Washington it will probably be 'wicked neat' with major winds.
Jaws marathon..AMC tonight 8pm..

later..
Quoting 221. HarryMc:


I live half way between Manchester and Portsmouth and we're close but not up that high. Expecting around 8 inches here with winds 50mph or so. Up on Mt Washington it will probably be 'wicked neat' with major winds.


Keep an eye on the snow ratios with this one. As arctic air fills in, it will easily get to 15:1 or higher by Thursday morning. Someone with some elevation will get 3 feet before its done.
Quoting 219. nwobilderburg:

i guess the secrets out, lol


I know your secret password.
WINTER STORM VULCAN: Up to 12 Inches of Snow Ahead
Quoting 225. hurricanes2018:
WINTER STORM VULCAN: Up to 12 Inches of Snow Ahead


Live Long and Prosper.....
Could the high sun angle limit accumulations in northern New England?
Quoting 228. DonnieBwkGA:
Could the high sun angle limit accumulations in northern New England?

No. The sun angle just means the snow will melt faster when the storm passes.
Quoting 178. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The plane was last known to be 35,000 feet above the ocean. If it was a bomb, I doubt there would be debris of any kind by the time the remains reached the surface. That's a long way up; I'd imagine it would all disintegrate.


Thing is if the aircraft was blown into shreds by a high altitude bomb there should be seat cushions floating around. Seat cushions are floatation devices.
I'm not so sure tropicalanalyst13. Here's the Burlington VT forecast. Sun angle won't be a factor Wed night and Thursday with it so cold but on Wednesday the high will be 31, warm enough for sun angle to be a factor.
Quoting 228. DonnieBwkGA:
Could the high sun angle limit accumulations in northern New England?
no but once system passes and skies clear with a full sun won' take long to start melting


that's the nice thing about storms this late in the season once the sun breaks out the stuff melts like butter
233. beell
Sublimation (phase change from solid to vapor/sun angle)

Even at temperatures below freezing.
I ve been looking at the blog heading and for the 10th of March there is still a lot of ice and snow about in the great lakes area.
Its a bit late for the melt to set in for a change.

I am rebuilding my windows XP computers and opeerating systems in advance of them failing due to lack of back up and updates about the 6th of April.
Unfortunatly the wind map wont work on explorer ealier tha IE9 and of course XP only has IE8 in my zone.
When all fails we will be able to send info in the old style on IE8 and XP while all the new stuff fails from lack of updates.
Anybody still using XP make sure its working OK now.
I have 2 computers on windows 7 here but they will also no doubt become obserlete soon as well.

Good night from a very windy southern Spain.
I live in new haven,conn and we will get less then inch of snow from this winter storm more like rain for new haven,conn to new York city


Quoting PlazaRed:
I ve been looking at the blog heading and for the 10th of March there is still a lot of ice and snow about in the great lakes area.
Its a bit late for the melt to set in for a change.

I am rebuilding my windows XP computers and opeerating systems in advance of them failing due to lack of back up and updates about the 6th of April.
Unfortunatly the wind map wont work on explorer ealier tha IE9 and of course XP only has IE8 in my zone.
When all fails we will be able to send info in the old style on IE8 and XP while all the new stuff fails from lack of updates.
Anybody still using XP make sure its working OK now.
I have 2 computers on windows 7 here but they will also no doubt become obserlete soon as well.

Good night from a very windy southern Spain.

Hi, Red. I've still got one XP computer because a lot of my amateur radio programs only work on XP. Have you tried Chrome on your XP machine? I've been using it for a couple of months and have been favorably impressed. Anything that runs on IE 9 runs on Chrome, and it generally runs better. My XP netbook only has a gig or RAM and it runs the net way better.
Link
CPC REPORT
NO SUPRISE HERE.
Quoting 234. PlazaRed:
I ve been looking at the blog heading and for the 10th of March there is still a lot of ice and snow about in the great lakes area.
Its a bit late for the melt to set in for a change.

I am rebuilding my windows XP computers and opeerating systems in advance of them failing due to lack of back up and updates about the 6th of April.
Unfortunatly the wind map wont work on explorer ealier tha IE9 and of course XP only has IE8 in my zone.
When all fails we will be able to send info in the old style on IE8 and XP while all the new stuff fails from lack of updates.
Anybody still using XP make sure its working OK now.
I have 2 computers on windows 7 here but they will also no doubt become obserlete soon as well.

Good night from a very windy southern Spain.


I have 2 Win XP(4/08/2014), 1 Vista Business(2017) and 2 Win 7(2020).... End of Life
242. txjac
Quoting 211. nwobilderburg:


And in regards to my name, im not a conspiracy nut


Oh we see ...you're just one of the group? LOL

Oooops! I see Cody beat me to this comment ...great minds think alike! another LOL
243. txjac
Quoting 222. ncstorm:
Jaws marathon..AMC tonight 8pm..

later..


On Fox right now

Democratic senators hold climate change 'Talkathon'

Link

Dang it ...thats twice on this page that Cody "got" there before me ...

If Taz is on somewhere I'm sure that I will get it for not reading all comments before posting ..lol
Quoting 239. Andrebrooks:


Quoting PedleyCA:


Live Long and Prosper.....

I wondered how long it would be before someone got the Star Trek angle on that one. I'm now waiting for squall line names...something like "Bow Echo Bob"..."Derecho Doug". You know that has to be coming soon. :-)
Quoting 244. Gearsts:


Seeing any similarities, Gearsts?

I suspect the MDR and Eastern Caribbean will be cooler than normal due to the constant wind shear from the TUTT setting up shop there, while the East Coast US and Subtropical regions will be above normal temperature wise. The GOM should be around normal.
TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

KIRK IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIVE LONG AND PROSPER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES AND A 1214 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS
A CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT IT IS BECOMING ELONGATED. MAXIMUM
RELIABLE WINDS IN THE ASCAT PASS WERE AROUND 45 KT SO THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. KIRK WILL LIKELY BECOME
POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 200 N MI TO ITS WEST.

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT KIRK HAS
BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING A VERY FAST 035/32. AN EVEN
FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE FRONT TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 46.2N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 51.1N 30.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
249. txjac
Link

China successfully tests smog-fighting drones that spray chemicals to capture air pollution

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-257 7347/China-successfully-tests-smog-fighting-drones -spray-chemicals-capture-air-pollution.html#ixzz2v c6vItoP

These chemicals that are being sprayed ..are they safe?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

KIRK IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIVE LONG AND PROSPER.


LOL. I had forgotten about poor old Captain Kirk. It seems many scientists are Star Trek fans. :-)
Quoting txjac:
Link

China successfully tests smog-fighting drones that spray chemicals to capture air pollution

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-257 7347/China-successfully-tests-smog-fighting-drones -spray-chemicals-capture-air-pollution.html#ixzz2v c6vItoP

These chemicals that are being sprayed ..are they safe?

Muh oh....

wxmod is going to be all over this one....
Quoting 249. txjac:
Link

China successfully tests smog-fighting drones that spray chemicals to capture air pollution

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-257 7347/China-successfully-tests-smog-fighting-drones -spray-chemicals-capture-air-pollution.html#ixzz2v c6vItoP

These chemicals that are being sprayed ..are they safe?

The hyperlink doesn't match the text, just FYI.
Quoting 251. sar2401:

Muh oh....

wxmod is going to be all over this one....


Yep.

What gets me is that instead of making chemicals and complicated contraptions to spray said chemicals to treat pollution... how about just not polluting as much in the first place?

It is like going to the doctor for high blood pressure, getting on a medicine, then getting another medicine to treat the side effects of the first one. A better plan is to lose weight and eat healthy, so you don't need any medicines.. Just sayin'
TRMM of Hadi. Click pic for animation.

255. txjac
Quoting 252. jeffs713:

The hyperlink doesn't match the text, just FYI.


Here is the proper one

Link

Thank you for catching that
Well I've had nothing to talk about.It was sunny with mild temps.This weather is boring.Where's the excitement?.So this is what it must feel like living in C.A.
MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 5:49 PM PDT on March 10, 2014
Scattered Clouds
75 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 24%
Dew Point: 36 °F
Wind: 1 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 11.0 mph
Pressure: 29.95 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 76 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 8.20 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 20000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft
258. txjac
Quoting 256. washingtonian115:
Well I've had nothing to talk about.It was sunny with mild temps.This weather is boring.Where's the excitement?.So this is what it must feel like living in C.A.


You're a silly woman ...
But I can relate, lol.

I sit here and wish for a thunderstorm, complete with lightening ...to come through on a Friday evening. Like to watch the flashes of light through the windows when I hear thunder rumbling ...remember storms like that from my childhood ...and all six of us piled in bed with my mom. Good times
Nice down in South Florida tonight too. 72F out. I like last nights upper 60s better though.
It's time for some jokes to shake up the blog

"What do raspberries do when they play instruments?"
they have jam sessions.

"Why couldn't the dog get the apple?"
He was barking up the wrong tree

"What has four eyes but can't see?"
Mississippi

"What did the zoo keeper use to unlock the cage?"
A monkey wrench

Washi- Are you getting any more snow?
What has 1,000 feet and only 4 teeth?

Front row at a Garth Brooks Concert.
Quoting 244. Gearsts:


Look like the Caribbean is almost ready.
Quoting 258. txjac:


You're a silly woman ...
But I can relate, lol.

I sit here and wish for a thunderstorm, complete with lightening ...to come through on a Friday evening. Like to watch the flashes of light through the windows when I hear thunder rumbling ...remember storms like that from my childhood ...and all six of us piled in bed with my mom. Good times
If this were 2012 we would have been had our first thunderstorm (the first occured in January).the weather in 2012 was warm but the weather was exciting from a weather geeks point of view.
Quoting 261. Dakster:
Washi- Are you getting any more snow?
Wu has me getting snow next week on Monday and Tuesday.I'm kind of fishy.Euro shows a storm around that time with the freezing line well away from D.C.
Quoting 261. Dakster:
Washi- Are you getting any more snow?


NO.


At least, we hope not. Actually looking for the chance of low topped cells moving through the Mid Atlantic on Wednesday. Praise spring!
Flirting with record flooding in Montana..

Montana Gov. Steve Bullock declared a flood emergency late Monday after forecasters put 30 of the state's 56 counties under some type of high water warning.

I guess you will have to wait and see Washi.

BTW, I went on a diet, swore off drinking and heavy eating and in 14 days, I had lost exactly 2 weeks.
My typing skills have officially gone to hell this evening.

267. Dakster 2:17 AM

That's good to hear Daskter :).I won't post no more pictures of steak because I know you can't eat it.
In reality I lost 11 pounds...

I wish my blood tests came back better -- but oh well.



Please stay on topic.
Josh Wurman is on Weatherbrains right now.

Quoting 270. Grothar:



Please stay on topic.
Gro? :).
273. txjac
Quoting 269. Dakster:
In reality I lost 11 pounds...

I wish my blood tests came back better -- but oh well.


Congratulations, keep it up Tiger.
Takes lots of will power
Quoting 270. Grothar:



Please stay on topic.


Isn't it past your bedtime?

Or is it too cold for you to sleep?

It is awesome out, weatherwise, by me so I assume it has to be nice by you as well.
Evening all. I don't have much in the way of wx discussions, but I wanted to post a couple pics of a fire burning today in the west-central part of New Providence. March is usually the worst fire month here, with brush fires small and large started due to discarded cigarettes and broken bottles.







I looked to see if it was showing up on the satellite images, but it didn't seem so. Definitely a lot of the heavier particles were settling out quickly; it was very difficult to breathe to the SW [i.e. downwind] of that heavy smoke.
Quoting 270. Grothar:



Please stay on topic.


Who are you and what have you done with Grothar?
I just noticed even the airport is reporting conditions as "Smoke"... looks like it's calm out, too, which would make it worse... no breeze to take the worst away...
Quoting 270. Grothar:



Please stay on topic.


What is tonight topic Sensei????
Oh My,
Quoting 274. Dakster:


Isn't it past your bedtime?

Or is it too cold for you to sleep?

It is awesome out, weatherwise, by me so I assume it has to be nice by you as well.


The weather is very nice. A little hot today.
Finally we will find out where Grothar gets all those corny jokes.


Quoting 280. washingtonian115:


LOL washi. We must have had the same thought at the same time. You know what they say, "sick minds think alike.
Quoting 256. washingtonian115:
Well I've had nothing to talk about.It was sunny with mild temps.This weather is boring.Where's the excitement?.So this is what it must feel like living in C.A.


Being from So. Calif I totally agree! haha But that said, being here in N Wales, we've had nothing but rainy wind storm after another for 6 months (and not even any winter snowy weather to break it up boooo)...this week of dry and sunny weather, is actually exciting... for once in my life! hahaha Was today and supposed to be until Friday...unprecedented at the moment LOL

Going to be a bit of a heatwave too, nearing 60' ;)
Still hoping for a late snow though, if maybe hopeless, I dunno :(
I have checked all the maps and except for a little activity in the Pacific and a little snow up North. There is no weather anywhere. The blog is really slow.


Quoting 284. Grothar:


LOL washi. We must have had the same thought at the same time. You know what they say, "sick minds think alike.
Lol!.
Quoting 285. mitthbevnuruodo:


Being from So. Calif I totally agree! haha But that said, being here in N Wales, we've had nothing but rainy wind storm after another for 6 months (and not even any winter snowy weather to break it up boooo)...this week of dry and sunny weather, is actually exciting... for once in my life! hahaha Was today and supposed to be until Friday...unprecedented at the moment LOL

Going to be a bit of a heatwave too, nearing 60' ;)
Still hoping for a late snow though, if maybe hopeless, I dunno :(
sounds like you guys need a brief dry spell.
Quoting 279. PedleyCA:


What is tonight topic Sensei????


Well, we could each share our most embarrassing moments, and after reading all of your blogs on here, I'm sure you all have some good ones. Now don't anyone discuss your embarrassing comments that were made on the blog. We have already seen them and felt sorry for you. So remember, it is a family-weather blog.
Now that the weather is going to get hotter out, you should do indoor things like movies. Although I was there the last time Gro went and was a little embarassed.

Grothar decides to take in a movie.

After buying his ticket, he stops at the concession stand to purchase some popcorn. Handing the attendant $5, he says, "The last time I came to the movies, popcorn didn't cost anywhere near this much money. "

"Well, sir," the attendant replies with a grin, "you're in for an even bigger surprise -- the movies have sound now."
Quoting 287. washingtonian115:
Lol!. sounds like you guys need a brief dry spell.



Well yeah, really could use a dry out to be honest LOL My house could for sure, spare room could use a dry out from the leak...and then when it rains again, will know for sure if the builder fixed the leak or not! Have mushrooms starting to grow in there, not good! LOL

But have to say, much as have missed having any snow at all this winter, not sure would want to trade it for 'that' kink in the jet stream that locks the arctic air in either!!
Quoting 286. Grothar:
I have checked all the maps and except for a little activity in the Pacific and a little snow up North. There is no weather anywhere. The blog is really slow.




Sheesh, stringent definitions for weather.

What you meant to say was that there isn't any EXCITING weather out there. There's plenty of weather...sunny weather, cold weather, hot weather, snowy weather, rainy weather, night weather, day weather, Washi-weather, Gro-weather, etc.

Of course, EXCITING is subjective. What could be exciting for some, say a Cat 5 for Kori, could be downright terrifying for others.

:)
Quoting 288. Grothar:


Well, we could each share our most embarrassing moments, and after reading all of your blogs on here, I'm sure you all have some good ones. Now don't anyone discuss your embarrassing comments that were made on the blog. We have already seen them and felt sorry for you. So remember, it is a family-weather blog.



I have WAY too many to tell or even remember! LOL
294. txjac
Quoting 288. Grothar:


Well, we could each share our most embarrassing moments, and after reading all of your blogs on here, I'm sure you all have some good ones. Now don't anyone discuss your embarrassing comments that were made on the blog. We have already seen them and felt sorry for you. So remember, it is a family-weather blog.


Since this is a family blog ..

I remember when I went to get my drivers license ...and I was at a stop sign, and the guy told me to get out and go right ...so I opened the car door, got out and started going right ...he laughed his butt off at me ...and yes, I did pass
Quoting 286. Grothar:
I have checked all the maps and except for a little activity in the Pacific and a little snow up North. There is no weather anywhere. The blog is really slow.


Well, I posted what passed for wx here today... very likely to create a nasty smog-like environment for much of the western part of the island tomorrow morning. However, if today was any indication, it's very likely to be quite warm, nay, hot, tomorrow.

More like March, despite the threatened renewal of colder wx for later this week...
296. txjac
Quoting 291. mitthbevnuruodo:



Well yeah, really could use a dry out to be honest LOL My house could for sure, spare room could use a dry out from the leak...and then when it rains again, will know for sure if the builder fixed the leak or not! Have mushrooms starting to grow in there, not good! LOL

But have to say, much as have missed having any snow at all this winter, not sure would want to trade it for 'that' kink in the jet stream that locks the arctic air in either!!


Personally ...I'm loving the "kink"
Nice and cool
Quoting 292. Astrometeor:


Sheesh, stringent definitions for weather.

What you meant to say was that there isn't any EXCITING weather out there. There's plenty of weather...sunny weather, cold weather, hot weather, snowy weather, rainy weather, night weather, day weather, Washi-weather, Gro-weather, etc.

Of course, EXCITING is subjective. What could be exciting for some, say a Cat 5 for Kori, could be downright terrifying for others.

:)


No, I meant exactly that. Haven't you ever read Gertrude Stein? "There is no there there".
Quoting 269. Dakster:
In reality I lost 11 pounds...

I wish my blood tests came back better -- but oh well.
Keep working at it... you may yet see some improvements there...
Quoting 295. BahaHurican:
Well, I posted what passed for wx here today... very likely to create a nasty smog-like environment for much of the western part of the island tomorrow morning. However, if today was any indication, it's very likely to be quite warm, nay, hot, tomorrow.

More like March, despite the threatened renewal of colder wx for later this week...


We are having a number of fires here as well. I am surprised we don't have more. It has been extremely dry and warm for March.
Quoting 294. txjac:


Since this is a family blog ..

I remember when I went to get my drivers license ...and I was at a stop sign, and the guy told me to get out and go right ...so I opened the car door, got out and started going right ...he laughed his butt off at me ...and yes, I did pass


That is pretty funny. Almost as funny as when my son found the full bottle of Mistolin, which is a cleaner, and looks like Kool Aid. He picked it up and brought it over to me and asked if he could have a glass. You should have seen the look on his face, when he realized it wasn't Kool Aid.
Quoting 294. txjac:


Since this is a family blog ..

I remember when I went to get my drivers license ...and I was at a stop sign, and the guy told me to get out and go right ...so I opened the car door, got out and started going right ...he laughed his butt off at me ...and yes, I did pass


He probably still tells that story. Of course if this was in the 1930's, I can't blame you. :)
Quoting 286. Grothar:
I have checked all the maps and except for a little activity in the Pacific and a little snow up North. There is no weather anywhere. The blog is really slow.


I think biggest wx story planet-wise are the three TCs in the SPac over OZ and NZ...


Not much for now...

Quoting 289. Dakster:
Now that the weather is going to get hotter out, you should do indoor things like movies. Although I was there the last time Gro went and was a little embarassed.

Grothar decides to take in a movie.

After buying his ticket, he stops at the concession stand to purchase some popcorn. Handing the attendant $5, he says, "The last time I came to the movies, popcorn didn't cost anywhere near this much money. "

"Well, sir," the attendant replies with a grin, "you're in for an even bigger surprise -- the movies have sound now."


If that doesn't deserve a "twit", then nothing does.
Quoting 303. Grothar:


If that doesn't deserve a "twit", then nothing does.


I got more buddy... But I think I'll give you a break for now.

Hope your good weather holds out.
Quoting 297. Grothar:


No, I meant exactly that. Haven't you ever read Gertrude Stein? "There is no there there".


No...but the name sounds old, so I'll take a stab that she's related to you...perhaps a cousin?

:)
Quoting 299. Grothar:


We are having a number of fires here as well. I am surprised we don't have more. It has been extremely dry and warm for March.
We got a bit more rain than average last month, so it hasn't been as "crispy" as it usually is. So far. I hope we don't get too many more fires. Because most of the residual forest is in the western part of the island, this is where we get most of the fires... it's no fun having to deal with the low-lying smoke on the roads first thing in the morning....
Quoting 305. Astrometeor:


No...but the name sounds old, so I'll take a stab that she's related to you...perhaps a cousin?

:)



Keep it up and you'll see more stars than you can through your telescope. :):)
Quoting 250. sar2401:


LOL. I had forgotten about poor old Captain Kirk. It seems many scientists are Star Trek fans. :-)


More of a Picard fan myself.
I'm drooping... despite the scintillating conversation ... think I'll head to bed.

Good night, all...
And you thought 2011-2013 was bad for tropical Atlantic vertical instability...

The Soyuz has passed thru MAx Q on re-entry as the crew feels 4-5g's at that moment, now awaiting the drogue chute in 1:00 min 30 secs.
Quoting 306. BahaHurican:
We got a bit more rain than average last month, so it hasn't been as "crispy" as it usually is. So far. I hope we don't get too many more fires. Because most of the residual forest is in the western part of the island, this is where we get most of the fires... it's no fun having to deal with the low-lying smoke on the roads first thing in the morning....


The worst fires I can remember here was in 1971 when we couldn't even drive at all. The smoke was so thick that even the houses, cars and yards were covered with ash. There was another one in 1989 that was just as bad.
I think I will head out too. Have a nice night everyone.
Quoting Grothar:


We are having a number of fires here as well. I am surprised we don't have more. It has been extremely dry and warm for March.

It's finally fabulous in little old Eufaula. The high was 84, it's still 58, and this s the first time I've walked the dog without a parka in what seems like years. My pear tree looks like it did when we had our snow storm but now it's snow white flowers. All the spring bulbs are up and even my azaleas are showing signs of life. There's hardly a prettier place anywhere than Alabama in the spring.
Quoting 308. CybrTeddy:


More of a Picard fan myself.


More of a Seven of Nine Man myself.
Quoting Grothar:
I think I will head out too. Have a nice night everyone.

GN, Gro. Pleasant dreams...assuming you can still remember any of them. :-)
Quoting 296. txjac:


Personally ...I'm loving the "kink"
Nice and cool


Nice and cool I def agree with! But below freezing for extended periods, a bit too much! Though nice and cool to me is 50'-60'! LOL Over 70; and it starts getting too hot LOL :P
This one is for AussieStorm.

Q: What do you get when you cross a sheep and a kangaroo?

A: A sweater with big pockets.
Quoting 307. Grothar:



Keep it up and you'll see more stars than you can through your telescope. :):)


Actually looked through one tonight, saw the Pleiades. Same scope my father couldn't figure out on a family vacation trip...he said it was "junk". Got back home, and it took my mother an hour or so before she figured it out. Lol...

If your threat means you will come and visit me, then I will indeed keep it up. I'll take the pain, that is, if an old guy like you can hit a young kid like me.

:D
Quoting 310. TropicalAnalystwx13:
And you thought 2011-2013 was bad for tropical Atlantic vertical instability...



Officially launching my 2014 Atlantic hurricane season forecast. Watch out folks it's gonna be a big one!



WOW! NAM!
Quoting 310. TropicalAnalystwx13:
And you thought 2011-2013 was bad for tropical Atlantic vertical instability...



Hmm...going to have to up my numbers a bit.
Quoting 321. TheGreatHodag:


WOW! NAM!

The NAM goes big for the Chicago-Detroit-Toronto area for sure. Of course, it has its biases and is over exaggerating the snowfall totals, but the track of the low remains north. Will be interesting to see what the other models show compared to the NAM. Fun to look at!
Quoting 315. Dakster:


More of a Seven of Nine Man myself.


WE are BORG, You will be assimilated.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
And you thought 2011-2013 was bad for tropical Atlantic vertical instability...


Wowsers. Looks like a good time to be sailing the Virgin Islands. Life is so strange. I'm sure I've told the story about how Ivan would have killed me if my wife hadn't gotten leukemia. We would have been in Grenada because of boat insurance, which says you can't go north of St. Lucia during hurricane season. Even with the tremendous number of storms in 2005, none affected the Leeward Islands. Since then, I could have had the boat anchored in Roadtown and nothing would have happened. It would have been eight years of perfect sailing. You just never know.
Quoting 310. TropicalAnalystwx13:
And you thought 2011-2013 was bad for tropical Atlantic vertical instability...


How low can it go? How low can it go? *inserts picture of a limbo stick*
Quoting 323. wxchaser97:

The NAM goes big for the Chicago-Detroit-Toronto area for sure. Of course, it has its biases and is over exaggerating the snowfall totals, but the track of the low remains north. Will be interesting to see what the other models show compared to the NAM. Fun to look at!


would be even more fun to get it to verify (doubt it happens as NAM advertises) and get a couple of surprise snow days.
Quoting 320. wxgeek723:


Officially launching my 2014 Atlantic hurricane season forecast. Watch out folks it's gonna be a big one!



The 100 year anniversary season.... Oh, yeh.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Officially launching my 2014 Atlantic hurricane season forecast. Watch out folks it's gonna be a big one!


LOL. Now, just drop that track a little so it misses SE Alabama and curve it a bit north so it hits Kori. He'll be as happy as a pig in...mud. :-)
Here's something worthy of note. Cyclone Lusi may impact New Zealand this weekend as a tropical storm or recently transitioned extratropical storm. Either scenario is rare for the country.





Wonder if the NZ media is hyping this to high hell.
Quoting PedleyCA:


The 100 year anniversary season.... Oh, yeh.

I wonder what the return period is for that season? TS One actually did a fair bit of damage here, including blowing down the steeple of the oldest church in town and a lightning caused fire that burned two blocks of downtown. Old-timers here still talk about it.
Quoting 327. TheGreatHodag:


would be even more fun to get it to verify (doubt it happens as NAM advertises) and get a couple of surprise snow days.

Knowing my school district, I'd still go to school on Wednesday, lol. After using up our snow days, and then some, they are very adamant about having any more school cancellations. Should've had a snow day in early February but no one in the area called due to them not being prepared and them not wanting to call school unless it was a "Storm of the Century" type storm.
Quoting wxgeek723:
Here's something worthy of note. Cyclone Lusi may impact New Zealand this weekend as a tropical storm or recently transitioned extratropical storm. Either scenario is rare for the country.





Wonder if the NZ media is hyping this to high hell.


Yes...

Cyclone remnants set to 'pack a punch'

Front page news at the New Zealand Herald.
Good night - falling out at the keyboard.

I hope everyone gets their own weather wish.
Quoting 334. Dakster:
Good night - falling out at the keyboard.

I hope everyone gets their own weather wish.


Already have mine...
Quoting 330. wxgeek723:
Here's something worthy of note. Cyclone Lusi may impact New Zealand this weekend as a tropical storm or recently transitioned extratropical storm. Either scenario is rare for the country.





Wonder if the NZ media is hyping this to high hell.


Talking about rare storms and New Zealand? Here ya go.
Quoting 331. sar2401:

I wonder what the return period is for that season? TS One actually did a fair bit of damage here, including blowing down the steeple of the oldest church in town and a lightning caused fire that burned two blocks of downtown. Old-timers here still talk about it.

1914 was probably a near-normal hurricane season. We have to remember that satellite techniques did not exist back then, and the only way tropical storms we're documented was if they hit a ship or hit land. There could've been 4 Category 5 hurricanes between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde Islands in 1914 for all we know.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Hmm...going to have to up my numbers a bit.

And here I was thinking that 3-0-3 was too low. :-)
Quoting 337. TropicalAnalystwx13:

1914 was probably a near-normal hurricane season. We have to remember that satellite techniques did not exist back then, and the only way tropical storms we're documented was if they hit a ship or hit land. There could've been 4 Category 5 hurricanes between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde Islands in 1914 for all we know.


Definitely missed storms but wouldn't shipping interests pick up at least a couple of those if that were the case? Lol.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Talking about rare storms and New Zealand? Here ya go.

I'd murder that guy on the jet ski. The last thing you need when water is creeping up on your house is some nitwit roaring by making a big wake.
Quoting 339. wxgeek723:


Definitely missed storms but wouldn't shipping interests pick up at least a couple of those if that were the case? Lol.

It's uncommon to get ship reports in a tropical cyclone even now. I'm sure most captains want to be as far away from a strong hurricane as possible. Lol.
"Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm."

Directly from the Doc himself.

Late starting hurricane seasons

This was during the angst of the 2009 season. Now those were the days.
Quoting 286. Grothar:
I have checked all the maps and except for a little activity in the Pacific and a little snow up North. There is no weather anywhere. The blog is really slow.




We had a classic March butt-kicking windstorm today.

I had to do an oil change on the Winstar van during the worst of it. Kinda worried that the gusts would send the hood into our neighbor's pasture. I tried to start pouring the oil between gusts, but one poof got oil spattered on the engine block.

(I am the smallest adult, which is why my chores involve crawling on roofs and under buildings and vehicles.)

Usually this weather is when I am driving down 95 to visit family in SoCal. I am skipping the drive this March, doing the drive around Pyramid Lake by Hawthorne can be terrifying in a windstorm.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

1914 was probably a near-normal hurricane season. We have to remember that satellite techniques did not exist back then, and the only way tropical storms we're documented was if they hit a ship or hit land. There could've been 4 Category 5 hurricanes between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde Islands in 1914 for all we know.


Certainly possible, but there were a lot of ships on the ocean in 1914, and many had "wireless". Lloyd's of London required hourly weather reports from insured vessels. They kept a detailed map of each day's weather conditions, and started broadcasting weather in 1914, although that stopped for the duration of WWI. This is a map of the density of shipping during the first three decades of the 20th century:



I'm sure that TD's and even a few TS's may have been missed, but any large cyclones would have been reported by at least a couple of ships, even on lesser used lanes. Looking at the Pacific, it's highly likely that many storms were missed.
Quoting nonblanche:


We had a classic March butt-kicking windstorm today.

I had to do an oil change on the Winstar van during the worst of it. Kinda worried that the gusts would send the hood into our neighbor's pasture. I tried to start pouring the oil between gusts, but one poof got oil spattered on the engine block.

(I am the smallest adult, which is why my chores involve crawling on roofs and under buildings and vehicles.)

Usually this weather is when I am driving down 95 to visit family in SoCal. I am skipping the drive this March, doing the drive around Pyramid Lake by Hawthorne can be terrifying in a windstorm.

Ah, the Washoe Zephyr reaching out to Fallon. That area around Pyramid Lake is really awful when the winds come up. Not only have many people out on the Lake drowned over the years, but it's the documented case of a train being blown off the tracks by a non-hurricane wind gust. If it makes you feel any better, I generally get about half the oil I pour into my car all over the engine block with no wind. :-)
Quoting 344. sar2401:


Certainly possible but there were a lot of ships on the ocean in 1914, and many had "wireless. Lloyd's of London required hourly weather reports for insured vessels. They kep a detailed map of each day's weather conditions, and started broadcasting weather in 1914, although that stopped for the duration of WWI. This is a map of the density of shipping during the first three decades of the 20th century:



I'm sure that TD's and even a few TS's may have been missed, but any large cyclones would have been reported by at least a couple of ships, even on lesser used lanes. Looking at the Pacific, it's highly likely that many storms were missed.

It'd be cool to see how wind shear/dry air/SAL was like in 1914. Though the year was a strong El Nino, I still have a really hard time believing it was that slow.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's uncommon to get ship reports in a tropical cyclone even now. I'm sure most captains want to be as far away from a strong hurricane as possible. Lol.

But now they've got satellites to avoid cyclones. In 1914, it was the barometer and the captain's eyes. Many ships sailed right into a tropical cyclone and didn't know it until it was too late.
Good Night Peeps - Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Shipments of Spring arriving soon
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It'd be cool to see how wind shear was in 1914, or what phase of the ENSO it was. I have a really hard time believing it was that slow.

I doubt it was really just one TD and one TS as well. There had to be at least a couple of what today would be TD's that didn't have enough reports to get noted. Many reports from that era would tell of a "bad" storm but there were lots of bad storms, so many captains didn't think much of it, as long as they and the ship survived. They were a tough bunch back then. There has been speculation that 1914 was low because of WWI and ships not reporting weather, but the war didn't start in earnest until late September. 1916 had an above normal season, and 3 storms were noted in the mid-Atlantic, even though radio reports of weather were absolutely forbidden by then. It would be very instructive to know the exact atmospheric conditions in 1914 but I guess that's something we'll never know.
Quoting PedleyCA:
Good Night Peeps - Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Shipments of Spring arriving soon

GN, Ped. More shipments of Spring would be just fine with me. :-)
Today' selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



*** Less reliable water availability in the 21st century climate projections

Tokyo Radiation Less Than Paris's Three Years After Meltdown

*** Kerry Orders U.S. Diplomats to Press Case for Climate Action

!!! Elephants are able to differentiate between ethnicities and genders, and can tell an adult from a child - all from the sound of a human voice.


Farming on sand

!!! A shocking diet: Researchers describe microbe that 'eats' electricity

'Death stars' in Orion blast planets before they even form

*** Weirdness in cosmic web of the universe: Faint strings of galaxies in 'empty' space arranged in way never before seen


!!! First animals oxygenated Earth's oceans, study suggests

*** Natural selection has altered the appearance of Europeans over the past 5,000 years


* Mongol Empire rode wave of mild climate, but warming now may be tipping region into unparalleled drought

Scientists build thinnest-possible LEDs to be stronger, more energy efficient

!!! New light shed on changing Greenland ice

* Aerosols from human activities tend to weaken hurricanes and cyclones

Houston sees public transportation ridership rise

Officials: Storms make Washington state drought unlikely

Australia endured sweltering 'angry summer'

*** Germany's aggressive push for a clean-energy future (with video)

Democrats: Round-the-clock climate speeches not just hot air

Do Brain Workouts Work? Science Isn't Sure

* What Your Activity Tracker Sees and Doesn't See

*** Volcanoes Helped Antarctic Life Weather Ice Ages

!!! NASA Takes You Through a Real-Life 'Cosmos'


************************************************* ************************************************** *******

The following article is courtesy of wxgeek723:

* South Jersey farmers fear harsh winter's effects on crops
Quoting Dakster:
Good night - falling out at the keyboard.

I hope everyone gets their own weather wish.

GN, Dak, if you're still around.


subtropical cyclone hitting directly on Auckland


979 mb directly over city
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Today' selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.


That's a very interesting article about the thin film LED's. I don't know how many people really understand how revolutionary LED's really are. I can easily foresee that, 10 years down the road, almost all lighting will be by LED's. The reduction in energy consumption is astounding. I use a 10 watt LED floodlight on the outside of my house. My neighbor has a 100 watt halogen, and the LED floodlight is slightly brighter. It will be possible to run an entire house full of LED lights from a 300 watt solar panel and a battery pack of six deep cycle batteries. These are the kinds of discoveries that give me hope that we can significantly reduce our carbon footprint by simply switching to things that use fractions of the electricity we use now and will be much cheaper than things like compact fluorescent bulbs are today.
Quoting nwobilderburg:


979 mb directly over city

I sure hope those two lows aren't as bad as the models are forecasting.
I want to give a big shoutout to ScottLincoln. Have any of you used the meteogram generator? If you click on the Google Map link on the upper right you come to this page. And yep, that's Scott Lincoln who helped develop the Bufkit Warehouse! I didn't know he was involved in that. I hope people express their appreciation to him for his contributions to the Bufkit Warehouse.

I love that site by the way :)

Some of you probably already know about this but it was new to me.
Quoting 358. sar2401:

I sure hope those two lows aren't as bad as the models are forecasting.


its the same low... just 12 hours apart
Quoting nwobilderburg:


its the same low... just 12 hours apart

Umm...sure...I knew that. That's what happens when I look at things past my bedtime. :-) I still hope that low isn't that bad when it hits Minneapolis. I know you folks are used to cold and snow but this is getting ridiculous.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I want to give a big shoutout to ScottLincoln. Have any of you used the meteogram generator? If you click on the Google Map link on the upper right you come to this page. And yep, that's Scott Lincoln who helped develop the Bufkit Warehouse! I didn't know he was involved in that. I hope people express their appreciation to him for his contributions to the Bufkit Warehouse.

I love that site by the way :)

Some of you probably already know about this but it was new to me.

I didn't realize that was our Scott until you pointed it out. I see now when I click on his name that it's him. He needs a better picture though. :-)

On the down side, none of the offices close to me (Birmingham, Jackson, and Memphis) have working links on the second map. I've contacted ckarsten@iastate.edu, who appears to be the person responsible for maintaining the web site, but the-mail bounced. It looks like he was a student when the BUFKIT Warehouse was written but the site was last updated in 2011, so maybe he graduated and moved on. I hope Scott will see this and let me know a good contact.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Lusi could develop into a hurricane: Fiji MET office

New Zealand Advised to Brace for Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Lusi







It looks like it will miss Fiji on the projected course. What's the current political situation in Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands? Last time I was in Fiji (2000), there was quite a civil war going on in the Solomon Islands and political unrest in Vanuatu that required troops and police from Australia and New Zealand to restore order. Fiji was also in the middle of yet another military coup. The pilots of the Air New Zealand flight we came in on were taken hostage and we were "guests" of George Speight and his band of thugs for three days until our release was negotiated by the Australian ambassador, backed up by two Australian Navy vessels and 400 Australian Marines lying offshore. If it was up to the US ambassador, we'd still be sitting in Nadi Airport. That was another of my fun vacations. :-)
Quoting 241. PedleyCA:


I have 2 Win XP(4/08/2014), 1 Vista Business(2017) and 2 Win 7(2020).... End of Life

Thanks for that info Ped.
Its interesting to know what we are facing with what we are running, especially with the need to get the latest updates and service packs installed by the deadlines.
Thanks for any comments on operating systems as we get older so does what we communicate with, until one day it doesn't work anymore.
Its amazing how many offices here are still working on Windows XP and I noticed a few months ago that desks in Manchester airport, UK were still also running XP!

Bright sunny morning here is Spain, feels like winters over with +20/C temp forecast today.

All that ice round the great lakes must be keeping the temps down, a bit like living in a giant freezer!
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUSI, CATEGORY TWO (18F)
18:00 PM FST March 11 2014
=========================================

Warnings for Fiji and Rotuma
------------------------------------
Tropical Cyclone Alert

A Damaging Heavy Swell Warning remains in force for Yasawa and Mamanuca group, western half of Viti Levu, Kadavu and nearby smaller islands.

A Strong Wind Warning remains in force for Yasawa and Mamanuca group, Viti Levu, Kadavu and nearby smaller islands.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Lusi, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 16.9S 168.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. Position fair based on hourly multispectral enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center in northern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
==================
150 NM from the center in northern semi-circle
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Overall organization has not improved much past 24 hours. Deep convection remains persistent but is dispersed over 300 NM of low level circulation center. System lies just north of an upper ridge and in a low sheared environment. Outflow good to the north and south. Sea surface temperatures around 30C.

Dvorak analysis based on central dense overcast pattern with thickness of approximately 75nmi yielding DT=3.0, MET=3.0, CI=3.5 and PT=3.0. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 17.5S 170.1E - 55 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 18.4S 172.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 21.7S 175.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC HADI (13U)
4:33 PM EST March 11 2014
=============================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low, Former Hadi (999 hPa) located at 17.6S 151.3E or 395 km northeast of Hamilton Island and 515 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 2 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity T2.0/2.5/W1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 16.7S 152.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 15.5S 154.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 13.0S 158.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 12.3S 163.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================

The Dvorak analysis of ex-tropical cyclone Hadi is based on a shear pattern with greater than 1.25 degrees of separation between the low level centre and any remnant convection to the southeast of the system, giving a DT of 1.5. MET and PT give 1.5 and 1.0 respectively. FT based on DT and the Dvorak constraints. CI maintained at 2.5.

On the latest visible satellite imagery, ex-tropical cyclone Hadi appears to be moving in a northeast direction. Most of the computer model guidance appears to have the system maintaining this general track over the next couple of days. The main steering influence will most likely be the monsoon flow to the north of the system as it is slightly stronger than the trade flow to the south.

The direction of the vertical wind shear changed overnight and any remnant convection is now being displaced to the southeast of the systems low level center due to an upper level trough moving across the southern Coral Sea. Vertical wind shear has also increased across the system with the approach of this upper level trough, which has inhibited any further development in the short term. By Thursday, some of the computer models indicate that ex-tropical cyclone Hadi may move into a more favourable environment for development and it is possible that the system may reform into a tropical cyclone near the Solomon Islands later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #28
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC GILLIAN (14U)
4:32 PM CST March 11 2014
=============================================

At 3:30 PM CST, Tropical Low, Former Gillian (1000 hPa) located at 14.0S 141.8E or 40 km east southeast of Cape Keerweer and 100 km north of Pormpuraaw has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/W0.5/24 HRS

Ex-TROPICAL CYCLONE GILLIAN is located over land near the Cape York Peninsula west coast. It is expected to move in a southwest direction before taking a more westward turn across the Gulf of Carpentaria during Wednesday.

GALES are not expected during the next 24 hours but may develop early Thursday as the low redevelops into a tropical cyclone. The system is expected to take a more northerly track later Thursday before weakening on Friday.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 14.2S 141.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 14.6S 140.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 14.7S 138.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 13.4S 138.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

The low level center lies over land close to the west coast of Cape York Peninsula using recent surface observations and the Weipa radar, however confidence in this position is low. DT has been difficult to establish given landfall with MET 1.5 and PT 1.5. Final T based on MET, with CI held at 1.5.

In the short term, Ex-Tropical cyclone Gillian is expected to track in a southwesterly direction tonight due to a strengthening mid-level ridge to the south of the system.

Ex-Tropical cyclone Gillian is currently under the influence of moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear and over land, which is inhibiting any further intensification at the present time. The environment should remain relatively hostile for further development in the short term, however as Gillian continues to move over open water it is anticipated that wind shear will also gradually decrease, allowing the system to re-intensify early Thursday.

Later on Thursday a mid level trough is forecast to amplify over southeast Australia, steering the system north and directing dry air towards the system along its western flank. This is also expected to shear the mid level circulation away from the low level center. This deteriorating environment is expected to cause the system to weaken below cyclone intensity on Friday as it moves northwest through the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gillian is quite a small sized system, which in the right environment could make it more susceptible to rapid intensity fluctuations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===================================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Groote Eylandt to Burketown, including Alyangula, Borroloola and Mornington Island
good morning!.............................
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 57 degrees with a high of 73 expected. We made it to 70 yesterday, absolutely gorgeous out!

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Waffles with ricotta and peaches, Quinoa-yogurt parfait, Breakfast BLT (English muffin and Canadian bacon replacing the bread and bacon) Greek yogurt with fruit, Berry protein smoothie, cottage cheese and apples sprinkled with cinnamon, Spinach-cheese egg scramble, Garden veggie omelet or Spinach and Goat Cheese Omelet, blueberry popovers, Crawfish Breakfast Enchiladas with and without cheese, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Good morning. Well the mysteries with this missing air plane become even more strange.
That's why they now officially search the Straits of Malacca and adjacent djungles as well (what was the plane doing in this area? Pilot without any orientation? Or something else?):

MH370 detected above Malacca Straits at 2.40am

Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 may have turned back, say authorities


Source

The tree rings show that after the empire's initial expansion, Mongolia's weather turned back to its more normal dryness and cold, though with many ups and downs over the hundreds of years since. The 20th and early 21st centuries are the exception. In the last 40 years, temperatures in parts of the country have gone up by as much 4.5 degrees F—well over the global mean rise of 1 degree. And, since the 1990s, the country has suffered a series of devastating summer droughts, often followed by a dzud—an unusually long, cold winter. The tree rings show that the most recent drought, from 2002-2009, compares in length and paucity of rainfall only to those of the pre-empire 1120s and 1180s. Perhaps more important: the drought of the 2000s was the hottest in the entire record. The heat evaporated water stored in soil, lakes and vegetation, and, in combination with repeated dzuds, devastated livestock. The last dzud alone, in 2009-10, killed at least 8 million animals and destroyed the livelihoods of countless herders. Now, displaced Mongol herders have formed a new invasion force—this time all headed to the capital city of Ulaanbaatar, which has swollen to hold nearly half the country's population of 3 million.


Read more at: Link
WENS..............................
Quoting 370. barbamz:
Good morning. Well the mysteries with this missing air plane become even more strange.
That's why they now officially search the Straits of Malacca and adjacent djungles as well (what was the plane doing in this area? Pilot without any orientation? Or something else?):

MH370 detected above Malacca Straits at 2.40am

Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 may have turned back, say authorities


Source
This sure is one of the strangest disappearing airplanes i have ever seen.
Space,the final frontier...
Quoting 373. severstorm:
This sure is one of the strangest disappearing airplanes i have ever seen.


Sounds like no one has any idea what's going on
Models forecasting over 2 feet of snow in parts of Maine Wednesday night into Thursday due to the storm O.o
The Aussies released their latest ENSO update. Read it at my ENSO blog.
Quoting 373. severstorm:
This sure is one of the strangest disappearing airplanes i have ever seen.


The military seem to have tracked it heading out into the Indian Ocean. A possible, if speculative, theory is that the captain took it on a suicide mission to a region where it would be unlikely to be recovered. He was well known as an aviation tech geek, who even had a flight simulator installed at his home. He would have had the knowledge to manually override security systems.

In 1987, a Silkair flight crashed into a river in Indonesia, after a vertical dive that reached supersonic speed. The captain had lost over $1 million in shares trading, and had taken out an insurance policy on his life the previous week, which came into effect on the day of the crash.
Quoting 379. yonzabam:


The military seem to have tracked it heading out into the Indian Ocean. A possible, if speculative, theory is that the captain took it on a suicide mission to a region where it would be unlikely to be recovered. He was well known as an aviation tech geek, who even had a flight simulator installed at his home. He would have had the knowledge to manually override security systems.

In 1987, a Silkair flight crashed into a river in Indonesia, after a vertical dive that reached supersonic speed. The captain had lost over $1 million in shares trading, and had taken out an insurance policy on his life the previous week, which came into effect on the day of the crash.
Quite interesting. Thanks
so far just rain no wind warnings for tomorrow for us..
sig-tornado...................
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Snow and blowing snow Wednesday.

An area of low pressure from Kansas is forecast to track south of the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. This system is expected to generate snow and local blowing snow for Wednesday for regions just north of Lake Erie and across the Niagara region. Although snowfall accumulations will depend on the exact track of this system current information suggests total snowfall amounts in the range 5 to 15 cm are possible.

Motorists will be advised to exercise caution when travelling or commuting due to poor visibilities in snow and blowing snow.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

Quoting 320. wxgeek723:


Officially launching my 2014 Atlantic hurricane season forecast. Watch out folks it's gonna be a big one!



100 year aniversary. Will it happen again?
What do you get when you cross a joke with a rhetorical question?
I'm going with the slightly less active than normal prediction for 2014....

Maybe 10-2-1.


Maybe as low as 6-1-0 if this el nino coming is particularly strong..
The Euro and Canadian show us getting one last good snow storm next Monday going into Tuesday.They have been very consistent although models can't be trusted when more than 3 days out.(Remember when the GFS showed Dorian crashing into Texas as a Borderline cat 4 when in reality it was nothing more than a weak struggling tropical storm).




Not much going on around here today... A few showers moving in from the gulf, but not much more..

Quoting 397. Torito:
Not much going on around here today... A few showers moving in from the gulf, but not much more..

The weather here is boring.
Quoting 398. washingtonian115:
The weather here is boring.



I'm thinking we need some satellites in jupiter or something where there are always things to look at...

Entropy ain't what it used to be...
Winter Weather Watch: Winter Storm Vulcan Tracks East

March 11, 2014

Our team of meteorologists, led by winter weather expert Tom Niziol, brings you the latest discussion on winter weather threats across the country.
Lusi...

Quoting 396. washingtonian115:
The Euro and Canadian show us getting one last good snow storm next Monday going into Tuesday.They have been very consistent although models can't be trusted when more than 3 days out.(Remember when the GFS showed Dorian crashing into Texas as a Borderline cat 4 when in reality it was nothing more than a weak struggling tropical storm).




You can credit the Texas Death Ridge for doing that. :P...But do you also remember the HWRF rapidly strengthening Irene and Isaac. I remember it had Isaac down to 926 mb. just off the west coast of FL. in one of its run. Just another reason why not to pay attention to intensity forecasting. Tracks a completely different thing. Usually models will nail that down.
Typo under the severe weather tab on this page for the tropical cyclones needs correcting. The Latitude should read S not N. Have a good morning WU.
Quoting 400. presslord:
Entropy ain't what it used to be...
What do you get when you cross entropy with order.?
Quoting 405. hydrus:
What do you get when you cross entropy with order.?


????
Quoting 406. presslord:


????
ortropy.
Quoting 394. presslord:
What do you get when you cross a joke with a rhetorical question?
I don't know, a cow and a chicken?...How is it in the Carolinas this morning. :D
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #29
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC GILLIAN (14U)
10:46 PM CST March 11 2014
=============================================

At 9:30 PM CST, Tropical Low, Former Gillian (1004 hPa) located at 14.2S 141.8E or 50 km southeast of Cape Keerweer and 80 km north northeast of Pormpuraaw has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0/1.5/W0.5/24 HRS

Ex-TROPICAL CYCLONE GILLIAN is located over land near the Cape York Peninsula west coast. It is expected turn and take a more west southwest track across the Gulf of Carpentaria during Wednesday.

GALES are not expected during the next 24 hours but may develop Thursday morning as the low redevelops into a tropical cyclone. The system is expected to take a more northerly track later Thursday before weakening on Friday.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 14.5S 140.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 14.5S 139.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 14.3S 139.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 12.8S 138.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

The low level center lies over land close to the west coast of Cape York Peninsula using recent surface observations and the Weipa radar, however confidence in this position is low. DT has been difficult to establish given landfall with MET 1.5 and PT 1.0 due to weakening of deep convection. Final T based on PAT, with CI held at 1.5.

In the short term, Ex-Tropical cyclone Gillian has been moving slowly to the south and is expected to track in a west southwest direction during Wednesday due to a strengthening mid-level ridge to the south of the system.

Ex-Tropical cyclone Gillian is currently moving into an area of reduced vertical wind shear, however being over land is inhibiting any further intensification at the present time. As the system moves over water, it is anticipated that wind shear will also gradually decrease further, allowing the system to re-intensify early Thursday.

Later on Thursday a mid level trough is forecast to amplify over southeast Australia, steering the system north and directing dry air towards the system along its western flank. This is also expected to shear the mid level circulation away from the low level center. This deteriorating environment is expected to cause the system to weaken below cyclone intensity on Friday as it moves northwest through the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gillian is quite a small sized system, which in the right environment could make it more susceptible to rapid intensity fluctuations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===================================

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Groote Eylandt to Burketown, including Alyangula, Borroloola and Mornington Island
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 359. BaltimoreBrian:
I want to give a big shoutout to ScottLincoln. Have any of you used the meteogram generator? If you click on the Google Map link on the upper right you come to this page. And yep, that's Scott Lincoln who helped develop the Bufkit Warehouse! I didn't know he was involved in that. I hope people express their appreciation to him for his contributions to the Bufkit Warehouse.

I love that site by the way :)

Some of you probably already know about this but it was new to me.

Brian... although I certainly appreciate the sentiment and praise, I probably should temper the amount of credit that you are giving me.

Chris Karstens is the main guy behind the Bufkit Warehouse and the subsequent Meteogram Generator. He was a graduate student at Iowa State at approximately the same time as me, and we shared an office. He did basically all of the coding and work on both of these projects, many times in the evenings after already long days of work toward his M.S. and Ph.D. degrees. Many times he would come into the office the day after having an idea, and he'd already have a prototype worked up, and then he'd bounce ideas off those of us in the office and some others in the department. So yes, you could say that I "contributed" and it was certainly nice for Chris to share credit. But make no mistake, Mr. Karstens did the vast majority of the hard work. I use the Meteogram Generator almost every day because it is so useful (people may also find a similar tool, the model spread tool on the NWS EDD [http://preview.weather.gov/edd], to be similarly useful).

Chris Karstens is a very hard-working individual and a motivated scientist in tornado research. I'm sure he's going to make a big impact someday.