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Great Blizzard pounds Midwest; Australia braces for Category 4 Yasi

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:37 PM GMT on February 01, 2011

The Great Blizzard of February 1 - 2, 2011 is here. Oklahoma City is experiencing whiteout conditions, with heavy snow of 2 inches per hour being driven by ferocious winds of 36 mph, gusting to 46 mph. With a temperature of just 9°F, this is an extremely dangerous storm for the city, and all of Oklahoma has been placed under a state of emergency. Seven inches of snow had fallen in Oklahoma City as of 7am EST. Dangerous blizzard conditions extend from Oklahoma, through northwest Arkansas, southeast Kansas, and southern Missouri this morning, and blizzard conditions are expected to spread northeastward into eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, most of Illinois, southern Michigan, northern Indians, and northwest Ohio later today. Cold air is being driven southwards out of Canada by a high pressure system over Montana that is at near-record strength. Pressures at Glasgow, Montana this morning were 1054 mb, close to the all-time U.S. high pressure record of 1064 mb set in Montana in 1983. Copious moisture is streaming northwards from the Gulf of Mexico to fuel the blizzard, and snowfall amounts will likely approach two feet across portions of Iowa and Illinois today, making it one of the top-ten snowstorms in history for the region. The storm will probably be Chicago's biggest blizzard since January 2 - 4 1999, when a storm dumped 21.6" of snow. With today's snowstorm expected to have very unstable air aloft, "thundersnow" with snowfall rates of 4 inches/hour is possible, and there is a chance today's blizzard could rival Chicago's greatest snow storm of all time, the blizzard of January 26 - 27, 1967. That immense storm dumped 23 inches of snow on Chicago, stranding thousands of people and leaving an estimated 800 Chicago Transit Authority buses and 50,000 automobiles abandoned on the city streets and expressways. Twenty six Chicagoans died in the blizzard, mostly due to heart attacks from shoveling snow. Strong winds in Chicago today are expected to generate 14 - 18 feet waves on Lake Michigan, with occasional waves up to 25 feet. A significant coastal flooding event is possible for the city, with beach erosion and flooding along Lake Shore Drive.


Figure 1. Chicago's Calumet Expressway near 138th after the record blizzard of January 26 - 27, 1967. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

Many major cities will likely receive over 12 inches of snow from the Great Blizzard of February 2011, including Kansas City, St. Louis, Detroit, and Boston. Perhaps of greater concern is the potential for a major ice storm along a swath from Northwest Oklahoma to Massachusetts. Widespread freezing rain is expected to bring over 1/4" of ice to many major cities, including Indianapolis, Columbus, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and New York City. Some regions could see up to an inch of ice, and widespread power outages due to toppled power lines are likely for millions of people. Damages exceeding $1 billions are possible from this ice storm. In addition, the storm's powerful cold front brought severe thunderstorms to eastern Texas this morning, and severe thunderstorms will affect Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama today as the cold front moves east. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed the region under its "slight risk" threat area for severe weather today, and a few isolated tornadoes may develop this afternoon in some of the heaviest thunderstorms.


Figure 2. A world of white. I don't recall ever seeing such a large area of the U.S. covered by winter weather warnings.

Extremely dangerous Tropical Cyclone Yasi bears down on flooded Queensland, Australia
Tropical Cyclone Yasi continues to intensify as it speeds westwards towards vulnerable Queensland, Australia. Yasi, now a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds, is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and over warm ocean waters of 29°C (84°C). The sea surface temperatures over the region of ocean Yasi is traversing (10S - 20S, 145E - 160E) were 1.2°C above average during December, the latest month we have data for from the UK Hadley Center. This is the highest value on record, going back to the early 1900s. Low wind shear and record warm sea surface temperatures will continue to affect Yasi for the next day, and the cyclone should be able to maintain Category 4 strength until landfall Wednesday evening (local time.)

Queensland faces three major threats from Yasi. The cyclone will bring torrential rainfall to a region with saturated soils that saw record flooding earlier this month. The latest rainfall rates in Yasi's eyewall as estimated by NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite are 20 mm (0.8") per hour. The GFS model is predicting that a wide swath of Queensland will receive 5 - 10 inches of rain over the next week, due to the combined effects of Yasi and a moist flow of tropical air over the region. Fortunately, Yasi is moving with a rapid forward speed, about 21 mph, and is not expected to linger over Queensland after landfall. The heaviest rainfall will miss Queenland's most populated regions to the south that had the worst flooding problems earlier this month, including the Australia's third largest city, Brisbane.

Yasi will bring highly destructive winds to a region of coast near the city of Cairns (population 150,000.) Townsville (population 200,000) is farther from the expected landfall of the eyewall, and should see lesser winds. Strong building codes have been in place in Queensland since the 1960s, which will help reduce the damage amounts.

A dangerous storm surge in excess of ten feet can be expected along the left front quadrant of the storm where it comes ashore. The critical thing will be when Yasi hits relative to the tidal cycle. The tidal range between low and high tide along the coast near Cairns will be about 2 meters (6 feet) during the evening of February 2. If Yasi hits at low tide, a 10-foot storm surge will only bring the water levels four feet above mean tide, but a strike at high tide would bring water levels a full ten feet above mean tide. High tide is at 9pm EST (local) time in Cairns on February 2.

Yasi is comparable to Cyclone Larry of 2006, which hit Queensland as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Larry killed one person and caused $872 million in damage (2011 U.S. dollars.) Yasi is a much larger storm than Larry, though, and will bring heavy rains to a region with soils already saturated from record rains. Yasi is likely to be a billion-dollar disaster for Australia.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Yasi at midnight GMT on February 1, 2011. At the time, Yasi was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Yashi looking very powerful this morning. Prayers to those in her path. It's COLD in Texas this mornin' yall!
Quoting muddertracker:
Yoshi looking very powerful this morning. Prayers to those in her path. It's COLD in Texas this mornin' yall!
Yeah. Currently showing 38 degrees inside of the 610 loop. 3 more degree drop and I will have seen the temperature cut in half from when I left the house this morning.
Tornado Watch #9
Issued/Updated: Feb 01, 2011 at 1436 UTC
Expires: Feb 01, 2011 at 2100 UTC
Tornado Watch 9 Status Message has not been issued





EL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 9
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
840 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF LOUISIANA
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 840 AM UNTIL
300 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH OF NATCHEZ
MISSISSIPPI TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE MOVE QUICKLY EWD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWD FROM TX INTO
LA...AND STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD OVER TX/OK. GRADUAL
SURFACE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION BASED
NEAR THE SURFACE AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE 60S...WHILE VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES IN THE LINE. A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...THOMPSON
Is it me, or is it possible that this storm is getting blown way out of proportion? I realize there is potential for record setting snowfall, but we always dig out.
Don't get me wrong, I love a good old fashion blizzard just as much as the other weather enthusiast, but, I think that many forecasters are going into frenzies on this storm and really don't need to be getting the public all worked up over it.
Take precautions should the worst happen, and if the worst does happen, adapt and be victorious over any problems.
Just my 2 cents!
Whole Lotta Weather Going On

525
WFUS54 KLCH 011508
TORLCH
LAC003-011-019-053-011545-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0001.110201T1508Z-110201T1545Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
908 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ALLEN PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES REEVES...
SOUTHEASTERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...RAGLEY...DRY CREEK...LONGVILLE...
NORTHERN CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...MOSS BLUFF...DE QUINCY...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES FENTON...

* UNTIL 945 AM CST

* AT 903 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES WEST OF
BUHLER...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MOSS BLUFF BY 920 AM CST...
GILLIS...RAGLEY AND LONGVILLE BY 925 AM CST...
TOPSY BY 930 AM CST...
BULLER AND REEVES BY 935 AM CST...
LEBLANC...FENTON AND DRY CREEK BY 940 AM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

This is a large scale winter event, it's covering or going to cover a lot of real estate, and if snow falls along the TX coast Friday this whole thing is not being blown outta proportion
Thanks Jeff...no snow down here, yet
Blizzard & Deep Freeze --- not good for those traveling to the Super Bowl.
The USA looks like a deep freezer.
This Global Warming sure is affecting the midwest today.  LOL
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey, i am well over 1000 miles away from Cairns


Whew! That's good news...haven't seen you in a while...glad you'll be watching safely from a distance. What a terrible event setting up with Yasi...WOW! Tragic with a capital T. What are the TV stations saying over there?
My sister is reporting white out Blizzard conditions in Oklahoma City this morning. Hope they are able to keep the power on.
IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:59pm EST on Tuesday the 1st of February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Melville to Sarina,
extending inland to east of Croydon to Hughenden.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Lockhart River to Cape
Melville, and in the tropical interior north of Winton to Sarina.

At 10:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 4 was estimated to be
810 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 820 kilometres northeast of
Townsville moving west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.

YASI IS LARGE AND POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES A SERIOUS THREAT TO NORTH
QUEENSLAND COMMUNITIES

The Cyclone will continue to intensify and move in a west-southwesterly
direction overnight and during Wednesday.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr are expected to develop on coastal islands
during Wednesday morning, then extend onto the coast during the day, and further
inland across the northern tropical interior overnight.

Between Cooktown and Ingham these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with gusts in
excess of 125km/hr on Wednesday afternoon and VERY DESTRUCTIVE with gusts above
200 km/hr between Port Douglas and Cardwell during the evening as the cyclone
approaches. These VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds will extend onto the coastal ranges
including the Atherton Tablelands on Wednesday evening.

As the centre approaches and crosses the coast SEA LEVELS between Cairns and
Townsville will rise significantly above the normal tide with DAMAGING WAVES,
STRONG CURRENTS and FLOODING of low lying areas in coastal parts.

FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during Wednesday afternoon
and then extend inland overnight.

People between Cape Melville and Sarina, extending inland to east of Croydon to
Hughenden should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially
securing boats and property.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

People between Lockhart River and Cape Melville, and in the tropical interior
north of Winton to Sarina should consider what action they will need to take if
the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.0 degrees South 153.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 260 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 940 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am EST Wednesday 02 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.


Houston/Galveston NWS

Preliminary point temps.
College Station (cll) 45 16 34 17 35
Houston (iah) 59 21 37 23 37
Galveston (gls) 61 25 38 28 38

A crisp 19F at the DFW AP at 853AM CST, light snow reported and a N wind at 30 MPH.
Lovely wind chill ZERO degrees :)
This must be some type of record for Dr. Masters??? Two blog postings in a row and no mention of AGW being responsible for the severe cold outbreak, and the coming blizzards!!!

Wow....
Quoting HIPPOCRITT:
This Global Warming sure is affecting the midwest today.  LOL

Same in Texas. Looking for a little information here. We were supposed to have average to above average temperatures this winter along the gulf coast. What factors are contributing to this anomaly if you will.
Quoting GetReal:
This must be some type of record for Dr. Masters??? Two blog postings in a row and no mention of AGW being responsible for the severe cold outbreak, and the coming blizzards!!!

Wow....

SHHH, you will wake the GW people up :0>
Quoting GetReal:
This must be some type of record for Dr. Masters??? Two blog postings in a row and no mention of AGW being responsible for the severe cold outbreak, and the coming blizzards!!!

Wow....

I just put someone on igore for there silly GW remark.
The eye of STC Yasi is now within the Willis Island Radar range.... 47km wide eye.
-38 in Montanna
Quoting RitaEvac:
-38 in Montanna

It is just so invigorating :)
hey bordonaro

can you keep us posted on airport closures?
Quoting RitaEvac:
-38 in Montanna

Psssssstt....... 90.9°F rising Updated at 02:33 EDT
Quoting aquak9:
hey bordonaro

can you keep us posted on airport closures?

I will try :O)
Bordanaro! this is the real deal huh, what's your thoughts about Friday for the coast of TX?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Psssssstt....... 90.9°F rising Updated at 02:33 EDT

Arlington, TX 18 F and falling :)
Quoting Bordonaro:

I will try :O)


thanks, you handsome hunka snowman!! :)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Bordanaro! this is the real deal huh, what's your thoughts about Friday for the coast of TX?

We will know more tomorrow. Possible snow :0)
So glad I pulled my palms up and got rid of some other plants that got wiped out last winter, now less to wrap and easier
Indian Hawthornes are so much better and can handle deep freezes like this one coming
Quoting Bordonaro:

It is just so invigorating :)
maybe for you LOL (you must have a VERY large WARM heart) puts me in the frigid : ( category.
I'm most thankful it seems SWFL will be spared the bunt of this -- am worried for my FL-Bred son in Galveston (chances of Black Ice??) -- what Mom doesn't worry. Off and Running
Complete Update






Quoting aquak9:


thanks, you handsome hunka snowman!! :)

Latest from Accuweather.com
Link
TC Yasi

Rainbow Image





Quoting AussieStorm:

I just put someone on igore for there silly GW remark.
The eye of yasi is now within the Willis Island Radar range.... 47km wide eye.


You're just now getting around to that? LOL!
It's climate change we're talking about not specifically warming...I love how people like to take one little nugget (a snow storm) and say "Oh that global warming sure is kicking in in (specified location) today."

The idiocy is mind numbing...I am not trying to start any arguments because there is absolutely no way in any lifetime that I can be convinced that climate change is a myth. You can't have an argument with someone whose beliefs cannot ever be changed or at the very least it will be an exercise in futility. The reason I feel so strongly about this is because there are thousands of incredibly bright scientists out there (many of which possess pHD's) that spend every waking moment researching and proving that climate change is real. This has led to an overwhelming scientific consensus that climate change is very real. Now, you're going to tell me that a bunch of jokers on this blog or some talking heads on network TV are smarter than that collective pool of intelligence? Uh, I think not. Besides, there is too much evidence pointing to corruption and corporate influence when it comes to the opposite (read delusional) viewpoint that climate change doesn't exist. That is my opinion and belief. I just wanted to put this out there so all of those rabid anti climate change folks can put me on their ignore list now and get it over with. Also, this will hopefully discourage any discussion of the topic with me. Thanks for listening...
Quoting Bordonaro:

Arlington, TX 18 F and falling :)

sucks to be you.... oh wait, no,,,, sucks to be me... lol. it's almost 3am and its to bloody hot to sleep. where's a cold front when you need one.
Quoting AussieStorm:

.....
The eye of STC Yasi is now within the Willis Island Radar range.... 47km wide eye.

awesome link, thanks!
It's 23 degrees in Fulton Missouri right now, nearly an inch of ice down in places and the snow has started in earnest...by the time this is all over the local forecasters are calling for upwards of 20" and windchills tomorrow night in the -20 range...not as cold as Montana, but not out of the ordinary for the end of January, beginning of February in central Missouri.
11. HIPPOCRITT 7:19 AM PST on February 01, 2011

This Global Warming sure is affecting the midwest today. LOL



only took 11 posts....is that a record?
Reports of cars stranded along Hwy. 66 just northeast of Tulsa (between Verdigris and Claremore).
All stocked up and looking forward to the blizzard in S Wisconsin. Nothing to worry about. By Thursday it will be cleared and all will be back to normal, with lots of new snow to enjoy!
Reports that I-44 is shutdown out of southwest MO into OK. (Will Rogers Turnpike in OK).
You'll see some interesting skies when that line approaches wherever you are
Quoting AussieStorm:
Reports of cars stranded along Hwy. 66 just northeast of Tulsa (between Verdigris and Claremore).

Aussie, the people of OK were told to stay OFF the roads, as a "State of Emergency" was declared, due to the Mega-Blizzard!!!
37:

So in other words, you believe whatever anyone in authority or mainstream tells you.

If the temperature rises, blame global warming.

If the temperature falls, blame global warming.

If theres a flood blame global warming.

If theres a drought, blame global warming.


This is not science, as it's not falsifiable.

Everything "confirms" global warming.
Quoting Bordonaro:
A crisp 19F at the DFW AP at 853AM CST, light snow reported and a N wind at 30 MPH.
Lovely wind chill ZERO degrees :)


Thanks for making our Packers feel right at home! Now THAT'S hospitality!
Quoting AussieStorm:

sucks to be you.... oh wait, no,,,, sucks to be me... lol. it's almost 3am and its to bloody hot to sleep. where's a cold front when you need one.

Wanna borrow ours :)???
14" snow on ground at Tulsa. Record snowstorm is 12.9" in Mar. 1994
Quoting Bordonaro:

Aussie, the people of OK were told to stay OFF the roads, as a "State of Emergency" was declared, due to the Mega-Blizzard!!!

well some people didn't listen.

An incredible 5" of snow in 90 minutes in Miami, OK with 13" on the ground!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Incredible...

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

Post that satellite pic in 8 hrs as the storm will be EXPLODING at that time.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Wanna borrow ours :)???

No thanks,,, my back doesn't like strong cold fronts like yours
Twenty six Chicagoans died in the blizzard, mostly due to heart attacks from shoveling snow.

guess they didn't call Jenny...
Hellava snow pack to my north, just allows that arctic air to slide right down with not the regular modifying of the air as it comes down, still modifies but not as much
According to Chicago Breaking: Airlines at O’Hare Int'l Airport have pre-emptively canceled more than 600 flights. Some people aint going anywhere.
Quoting AussieStorm:

well some people didn't listen.

An incredible 5" of snow in 90 minutes in Miami, OK with 13" on the ground!

NWS in Norman and Tulsa, OK warned everyone three days in advance, so I do not feel bad for them.

I do pray that they stay warm, wind chill factors are about -15 F there!!
DFW Int'l Airport has reopened. The runways have been cleared and flights in and out are beginning to resume.
Oncor reports more than 20,000 customers lost electricity in Texas. Half of the outages in the Dallas-Fort Worth area
Quoting AussieStorm:
Oncor reports more than 20,000 customers lost electricity in Texas. Half of the outages in the Dallas-Fort Worth area

Glad we have underground utilities and a fireplace :)
Incredible temp gradient. 61 in Shreveport, LA. 21 in Dallas at 7am CT. Difference of just 185 miles
Quoting AussieStorm:
DFW Int'l Airport has reopened. The runways have been cleared and flights in and out are beginning to resume.

OKC & Tulsa getting hit now!! Kansas City, MO, St Louis, Indianapolis, Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, Des Moines, you are the NEXT contestants on the Winter Storm is Right!!
Quoting Patrap:
hell of a winter storm, classic form! wonder what kind of tornadic activity MS, AL, and GA will see from this... especially once daytime heating really kicks up and that squall line starts getting kinky :P
Quoting AussieStorm:
Incredible temp gradient. 61� in Shreveport, LA. 21� in Dallas at 7am CT. Difference of just 185 miles
wow!


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:49am EST on Wednesday the 2nd of February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for island and coastal areas from Cape Melville to
Sarina, extending inland to east of Croydon to Hughenden.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Lockhart River to Cape
Melville, and in the tropical interior north of Winton to Sarina.

At 1:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 4 was estimated to be
740 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 750 kilometres northeast of
Townsville moving west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.

YASI IS A LARGE AND POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES A SERIOUS THREAT TO
NORTH QUEENSLAND COMMUNITIES


The Cyclone will continue to move in a west-southwesterly direction during
today, and may intensify slightly.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr are expected to develop on coastal islands
later this morning, then extend onto the coast during the day, and further
inland across the northern tropical interior overnight.

Between Cooktown and Ingham these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with gusts in
excess of 125km/hr during the afternoon and VERY DESTRUCTIVE with gusts above
200 km/hr between Port Douglas and Cardwell during the evening as the cyclone
approaches. These VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds will extend onto the coastal ranges
including the Atherton Tablelands this evening.

As the centre approaches and crosses the coast SEA LEVELS between Cairns and
Townsville will rise significantly above the normal tide with DAMAGING WAVES,
STRONG CURRENTS and FLOODING of low lying areas in coastal parts.

FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during the afternoon and
then extend inland overnight.

People between Cape Melville to Sarina, extending inland to east of Croydon to
Hughenden should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially
securing boats and property.

People between Lockhart River to Cape Melville, and in the tropical interior
north of Winton to Sarina should consider what action they will need to take if
the cyclone threat increases.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 1:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.3 degrees South 152.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 270 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 935 hectoPascals



Quoting Bordonaro:

OKC & Tulsa getting hit now!! Kansas City, MO, St Louis, Indianapolis, Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, Des Moines, you are the NEXT contestants on the Winter Storm is Right!!


Hey anyway I can pass my showcase prize package of up to an inch of ice for one including a foot of snow:)
Quoting RecordSeason:
37:

So in other words, you believe whatever anyone in authority or mainstream tells you.

If the temperature rises, blame global warming.

If the temperature falls, blame global warming.

If theres a flood blame global warming.

If theres a drought, blame global warming.


This is not science, as it's not falsifiable.

Everything "confirms" global warming.


Wow, didn't read the post, eh? Has nothing to do with "authority" or "mainstream". It has to do with who I think has a better handle on such a complex issue as climate change. I'll take my chances with the collective intelligence of the scientific community I mentioned in the previous post thank you. That's it. This has nothing to do with government or anything else. Good Lord...get a clue...
Quoting AussieStorm:

well some people didn't listen.

An incredible 5" of snow in 90 minutes in Miami, OK with 13" on the ground!


Who says it can't snow in Miami? LOL!
Quoting AussieStorm:
Incredible temp gradient. 61� in Shreveport, LA. 21� in Dallas at 7am CT. Difference of just 185 miles
nice graphic, we had a huge temp drop (about 30°F in 15 miles) this morning in houston.
Goodnight all...
I will set my pc up on the Willis Island Radar. it will be shown on UStream
Quoting AussieStorm:
Incredible temp gradient. 61? in Shreveport, LA. 21? in Dallas at 7am CT. Difference of just 185 miles

Between 6:02am and 6:22am, it dropped from 66 degrees to 42 degrees just northwest of Houston.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Goodnight all...
I will set my pc up on the Willis Island Radar. it will be shown on UStream
Thanks Aussie take care and appricate the information.
Tornado Watch #9
Issued/Updated: Feb 01, 2011 at 1436 UTC
Expires: Feb 01, 2011 at 2100 UTC
Tornado Watch 9 Status Message has not been issued



Quoting Grothar:




Hey Groth, nice graphics! What a monster Yasi has become...poor Queensland. UGH!
I work tech support for a software/service company. Normally a pretty busy place. It would be a jinx for me to voice the effect today's weather is having. But... I do have time to read wunderground, and it's not even my lunch time. Oh yeah and it's 75 degrees here in Tampa!
Quoting Bordonaro:
A crisp 19F at the DFW AP at 853AM CST, light snow reported and a N wind at 30 MPH.
Lovely wind chill ZERO degrees :)


Without global warming, it would have been 18 F and -1.
Wunderground Meteorologist Shaun Tanner


The Great Blizzard of 2011 is here. Listen here for updates at 4:30 pm ET, 1:30 pm PT

Posted by: shauntanner, 10:25 AM CST on February 01, 2011
Listen to the Weather Underground Broadcast Network here!
The National Hurricane Center issued its Tropical Cyclone Report for TS Nicole a bit ago. As thought, the storm was longer lived than previously believed. Among the report's highlights:
  • Nicole's time as a TC was extended by 24 hours. It was previously believed the storm had only been a TC for a single TWO on September 29, but the NHC has now given it five, beginning a day earlier on the 28th.
  • Nicole's maximum winds were raised a bit, from 35 knots to 40.
  • Nicole's ACE is raised from 0.1225 to 0.6875. This moves the storm from 19th place for the season to 17th; TC Gaston is now the least powerful storm of 2010.
  • Seasonal ACE is adjusted upward to 163.66.
  • Nicole is blamed for 14 deaths in Jamaica, primarily due to severe flooding. 300,000 households on the island lost power; infrastructure repairs run to appoximately $235 million USD.
  • A very thin swath of heavy rain fell in Florida due to Nicole. North Key Largo received 12.64", while areas 20 miles to the northwest received just an inch or so.
  • Apparently it took the NHC experts a while to figure this one out (which helps to explain why it's one of the last TCRs to be issued). From the report: "Nicole was a rather unusual system for the Atlantic basin, with a structure somewhat resembling that of a monsoon depression of the Indian or western Pacific Oceans. The radius of maximum winds was quite large, at least 200 n mi from the center, although convection was within about 90-120 n mi, which was close enough to the center to warrant a tropical or subtropical classification. One notable difference is that while monsoon depressions can have a cold-core structure, AMSU data suggested that Nicole was warm-core in the middle to upper levels, with the warm-core strengthening with time, more typical of a tropical cyclone."

Only three TCRs are still outstanding: Karl, Tomas, and Igor.
Looks like the intensification continues.

The color rings in the eye wall are becoming more wrapped and concentric.



Color IR


In my experience, there is a "hump" somewhere in this intensity range, where once a storm gets past this point, it actually becomes easier for intensification to occur, sometimes even if the clouds end up slightly warmer (See Celia at cat 5 intensity as a brilliant example).

IMO, If Yasi gets a solid shield of yellow wrapped around and keeps it for a few hours, then it should get over what I call the "hump" and become a category 5.

The current color scheme corresponds to a theoretical maximum of 80m/s to 85 m/s if it can hold symetry, which is well into cat 5/t7.5 range.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


You're just now getting around to that? LOL!
It's climate change we're talking about not specifically warming...I love how people like to take one little nugget (a snow storm) and say "Oh that global warming sure is kicking in in (specified location) today."

The idiocy is mind numbing...I am not trying to start any arguments because there is absolutely no way in any lifetime that I can be convinced that climate change is a myth. You can't have an argument with someone whose beliefs cannot ever be changed or at the very least it will be an exercise in futility. The reason I feel so strongly about this is because there are thousands of incredibly bright scientists out there (many of which possess pHD's) that spend every waking moment researching and proving that climate change is real. This has led to an overwhelming scientific consensus that climate change is very real. Now, you're going to tell me that a bunch of jokers on this blog or some talking heads on network TV are smarter than that collective pool of intelligence? Uh, I think not. Besides, there is too much evidence pointing to corruption and corporate influence when it comes to the opposite (read delusional) viewpoint that climate change doesn't exist. That is my opinion and belief. I just wanted to put this out there so all of those rabid anti climate change folks can put me on their ignore list now and get it over with. Also, this will hopefully discourage any discussion of the topic with me. Thanks for listening...
+10,000


2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve


The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively.





Note above, I'm only saying that the potential is there. Obviously the development has not yet reached the max potential, as it would be perfect symetry by then, which isn't there yet.
This is amazing!

Take your pick:

Kansas City:
Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Naples, FL
Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


;-)
The Willis Island radar is showing only light rain. Is this real?
^ Kansas City
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Hey Groth, nice graphics! What a monster Yasi has become...poor Queensland. UGH!


Hey, HJ, long time to talk. Wouldn't want to see anything like that along our coasts. They certainly don't need anything like this.
Quoting kwgirl:
+10,000


Good Morning and thanks!

Was that you that replied to my Hurricane Wilma story in the Your Stories section of my website? I have been wondering that for a while now...
Quoting jeffs713:

Between 6:02am and 6:22am, it dropped from 66 degrees to 42 degrees just northwest of Houston.


It's 33 in Hockley now. My poor garden. I don't think I'll make it home in time to get the covers up before everything freezes. And I'm fairly certain that my greenhouse was relocated by this morning's wind. On my drive in at 5:30 this AM, it looked like a hurricane with LARGE bits of airborne debris.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, HJ, long time to talk. Wouldn't want to see anything like that along our coasts. They certainly don't need anything like this.


Yeah man! Too long...hope all is well with you.
Oh heck no, no CONUS location needs it but it certainly would make for an incredibly exciting live broadcast though wouldn't it? LOL!
The eye is becoming more impressive. Looks like some of the weaker outer bands are hitting the coast already.

93. Neapolitan -

That's easy! LOL I always pick Florida.
Have family in KC and they are freezing! Thankfully, they are staying home today...
Quoting Bordonaro:

Glad we have underground utilities and a fireplace :)
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Good Morning and thanks!

Was that you that replied to my Hurricane Wilma story in the Your Stories section of my website? I have been wondering that for a while now...
Yes it was me. Sorry if I failed to ID myself, first time I have done posting to another blog besides this one. LOL I had to click on the link and look. It has been a while and old age is starting to affect my memory:)
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Yeah man! Too long...hope all is well with you.
Oh heck no, no CONUS location needs it but it certainly would make for an incredibly exciting live broadcast though wouldn't it? LOL!


Yes, but I am surprised no one on here has asked if there is any chance Yasi could hit South Florida. LOL
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, but I am surprised no one on here has asked if there is any chance Yasi could hit South Florida. LOL


LOL...it's winter; he-who-shall-not-be-named doesn't waste the effort of faking a log-in this time of year

How are you this morning?
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Who says it can't snow in Miami? LOL!


We Okies say it as Mi Am A though :) Called my old folks yesterday and my brother already had the genset prepped. Mine was ready in Southern IN by 5PM EST.
{{{Flood}}}

Hope you are working from home today!!
Quoting Floodman:


LOL...it's winter; he-who-shall-not-be-named doesn't waste the effort of faking a log-in this time of year

How are you this morning?
Yes, but I am surprised no one on here has asked if there is any chance Yasi could hit South Florida. LOL

he's too busy redecorating the bathroom...changing out the My Little Pony shower curtain for Elmo....
The sick thing about computer intensity models is how inconsistent they can be.

On this perticular storm, the outlying CHIPS member has out performed all of the other models on EVERY run so far, including over the past 12 hours. (though it's consensus line has been out to lunch most times.)

Other times, one of the other models will nail it.

And then many times none of them do a good job at all.

The best "complete model" was the one labeled "ST10", and even it was 12 hours slow on the rate of reaching 120kts...
Quoting Beachfoxx:
{{{Flood}}}

Hope you are working from home today!!


Good mornin', darlin'! Oh yeah...only the extremely brave or the exremely foolhardy go out in this sort of thing
Quoting Floodman:


LOL...it's winter; he-who-shall-not-be-named doesn't waste the effort of faking a log-in this time of year

How are you this morning?


I hear ya. You staying warm?
The roads in Dallas/FtWorth/Arl can be treacherous on a perfect sunshiney day - this has to be horrific!
Glad you are safe!! haven't talked to Bro-in-Law, but I'm sure he is working from home too.
Wife home too???
Quoting Floodman:


Good mornin', darlin'! Oh yeah...only the extremely brave or the exremely foolhardy go out in this sort of thing
It's absolutely coming a toad strangler downpour here in louisiana. No way we're getting snow accumulation no thursday. the ground is going to be too wet. It'd need to be like 20 degress for a day ahead of time to pull that one off...
Is Yasi annular? or trying to be?
Well, I thought BIL was staying home. But no, he is sitting at DWF hoping to catch a flight to San Francisco to attend a meeting.
Quoting Floodman:


Good mornin', darlin'! Oh yeah...only the extremely brave or the exremely foolhardy go out in this sort of thing
Dang! It's only 34 F in San Antonio now. (Dewpoint 23)

It's sunny, windy and dry with no warming in the forecast today.


It's gonna get real cold tonight!

It's absolutely coming a toad strangler downpour here in louisiana

how much water does it take to strangle a toad?

that sounds like a Geicho commercial...
Quoting NRAamy:


Thanks for map...been wanting to see this, my pc kinda tired today and doesnt want to participate :}
awesome

UW - CIMSS TC YASI




ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE


ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 FEB 2011 Time : 163200 UTC
Lat : 15:34:49 S Lon : 151:54:10 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 927.0mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.4 6.9
Quoting NRAamy:
Yes, but I am surprised no one on here has asked if there is any chance Yasi could hit South Florida. LOL

he's too busy redecorating the bathroom...changing out the My Little Pony shower curtain for Elmo....


Play nice, now Amy. LOL
that is nice.... you should have seen what I originally wrote then corrected....

;)
My GOD check out the snowpack on visible sat in the plains and down into West Central TX!!
That's amazing.

Colorado
Wyoming
Idaho
Utah
Nevada
parts of Texas
Part of California even, and northward, it's all white...
I know that the expression used in the Atlantic is to "hunker down" when a storm is approaching. I wonder what the Australian expression is. I believe it might be "bunker down" I wish Aussie where here to answer. If anyone knows, it would be interesting to find out if they are being told to hunker down or bunker down. My sick little mind just wonders about things like that.
It's global warming!

We're all gonna burn up under 2ft of snow!
One-third of US braces for massive blizzard

Tuesday, February 01, 2011



DALLAS (KABC) -- A third of the country is preparing for the worst as meteorologists warn of a massive blizzard.



The storm is affecting thousands of flights. Airlines canceled more than 4,500 flights on Tuesday because of the storm.

JetBlue is canceling flights in and out of New York's JFK airport for the rest of Tuesday, with some flights to resume Wednesday afternoon. It plans to shut down its Boston flying Tuesday night through Thursday morning.

Dallas Fort-Worth International Airport was temporarily closed Tuesday morning because of ice, which is a huge problem for people trying to get into Dallas for Super Bowl week.

Thousands of flights have been canceled at other major hubs, including Newark and Chicago O'Hare.

Cities like St. Louis, Kansas City and Milkwaukee could see the worst of the storm, with snowfall up to two feet and drifts piled as high as 10 feet. Ice is also expected to be a major problem there, which means the possibility of snapped tree limbs and power lines.

IDQ20008
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1302UTC 1 FEBRUARY 2011

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal zero south (15.0S)
longitude one hundred and fifty three decimal one east (153.1E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 18 knots
Maximum winds : 100 knots
Central pressure: 940 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 160 nautical miles in northern semi-circle
and within 250 nautical miles in southern semi-circle


FORECAST
Maximum winds to 100 knots near the centre increasing to 105 knots by 1800 UTC
01 February.

Winds above 64 knots within 30 nautical miles in northern semi-circle
and within 40 nautical miles in southern semi-circle with phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 90 nautical miles in northern semi-circle
and within 120 nautical miles in southern semi-circle with very rough to high
seas and heavy swell

Winds above 34 knots within 160 nautical miles in northern semi-circle
and within 250 nautical miles in southern semi-circle with rough to very
rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.


Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 02 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 16.1 south 149.6 east
Central pressure 937 hPa.
Winds to 105 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 02 February: Within 80 nautical miles of 17.1 south 146.0 east
Central pressure 937 hPa.
Winds to 105 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 1241
through Land Earth Station Perth 212.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 01 February 2011.

Quoting Grothar:
I know that the expression used in the Atlantic is to "hunker down" when a storm is approaching. I wonder what the Australian expression is. I believe it might be "bunker down" I wish Aussie where here to answer. If anyone knows, it would be interesting to find out if they are being told to hunker down or bunker down. My sick little mind just wonders about things like that.


Grothar, I think it's more like "get the $@%*# outta here!!!"
Weather report from Australia.


Link
I don't understand what Dr. Masters means by "left front quadrant"...wouldn't the highest storm surge be south of Yasi's landfall?
135. DEKRE
The Willis Island Radar shows mainly light ane very little moderate rain.

Can somebody explain how light to moderate rain is sufficient to feed a major TC????
sneezor- ya go by the direction as being "middle front"...draw an arrow thru the storm, in the direction it's going...

then the left front quadrant really IS the southern bottom quadrant
battening down the Hatches it iz...



LOL
Quoting Patrap:
battening down the Hatches it iz...



LOL


Caught that at the end, did ya? Funny, but they also get "Hope for the best and expect the worst" just like us.
Left front Quad is the Strong Onshore Flow side in the Southern Hemisphere as the Cyclones There Spin Clockwise,..

The Right front Quad in the Atlantic is the onshore flow side as our Cyclones/Hurricanes spin Counter Clockwise.
Quoting aquak9:


Grothar, I think it's more like "get the $@%*# outta here!!!"


Yes, I have heard Mrs. Grothar use that expression many times.
it would be interesting to find out if they are being told to hunker down or bunker down.

I think it's more like, "Pass me another beer, mate".....
Quoting Grothar:


Caught that at the end, did ya? Funny, but they also get "Hope for the best and expect the worst" just like us.


Yeah,,u right Gro.

Calamity and Human nature know no Borders indeed.

Soon,a lotta folks are gonna be Praying out Loud and for Thousands,,they will be changed forever.

Been a few 4-5yrs since Larry.

I hope they evacuated where Yasi is gonna cross the Coast

I send them Best of Luck and Godspeed into the fray.


YASI Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

TFP's are available.

Note the Time the Eye Crosses the Coast, FEB 2 12Z.

The Storm will be Half inland with Most the Surge as well.

Get away from the Coast if some are considering staying there.

Then the Darkness Factor will be in Play as well.


This is a BAD thing about to occur.




Good little video on the current US storm.

Link
Thanks Aquak9 and Patrap.
Near mom's in tulsa:



A solid 15 inches by that garbage can...I don't think they are going to be picking up anytime real soon.
Quoting sneezor:
I don't understand what Dr. Masters means by "left front quadrant"...wouldn't the highest storm surge be south of Yasi's landfall?

well it's left front according to the direction of the storm which would be south of the center, is what I think he means
144:

Yep. Based on the Willis Island radar, you can find those coordinates by hovering your mouse.

This storm is forecast to hit LAND as 130kts TC.

It will still be a category 3, T-5.5, by the time it is 2 degrees (~125 miles) or so inland.
Getting a Tad Bumpy Uptown as well..

This Storm has good inflow and a Moisture Tap id say..




It just hit 80 degrees for the first time since October of last year at my place in north Pinellas County!

Definitely the pattern has changed here in Florida. The warmer weather and increased rain has already gotten the bull frogs and leopard frogs croaking wild at night around here. Only in Florida can you hear a choir of frogs in January :)
Quoting sneezor:
Thanks Aquak9 and Patrap.


Yer welcome.

Snow Pack


Look how much this reflects!

Going to prevent whatever day time heating was normal. Wow this is amazing snow everywhere.
NAM still likes the LA-MS snow for Thursday:



Not insignificant for down here...
Quoting NRAamy:
It's absolutely coming a toad strangler downpour here in louisiana

how much water does it take to strangle a toad?

that sounds like a Geicho commercial...

About an inch per hour of rain. Aka: A normal SE Texas / Lousiana thunderstorm.
thanks jeffs....

:)
Quoting NRAamy:
thanks jeffs....

:)


See what you have to look forward too!
:)
Interesting info on Cyclone Larry,..



The Australian intensity scale is based on maximum wind gusts, which are estimated to be 40 percent above 10-minute sustained winds. On this scale, Larry peaked as a Category 5 cyclone. On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's maximum 1-minute wind speed assigned to the cyclone define it as a Category 4 storm.

Based on estimated winds speeds required to destroy simple structures, a damage survey of buildings in the Innisfail region estimated peak gust wind speeds (in reference to flat open country at a height of 10 metres (33 ft)) across the study area to range from 180 to 230 kilometres per hour (110 to 140 mph). This estimate correlates with the Bureau of Meteorology's re-analysis of Cyclone Larry at landfall. Their reviews of data suggest that Larry was a Category 4 system when it crossed the coast.

It was confirmed by the Bureau of Meteorology in March 2007 that the cyclone made landfall as a Category 4 cyclone.


A 10-minute average wind speed of 108 knots (200 km/h; 124 mph) was reported in Innisfail during landfall, theoretically corresponding to 1-minute sustained winds of 125 knots (232 km/h; 144 mph), and maximum wind gusts generally consistent with a Saffir-Simpson scale Category 4 storm.

(The cyclone's minimum pressure would be more consistent with Category 5 if this were an Atlantic hurricane.)

At 1 am AEST on 21 March, Larry was downgraded to a Tropical Low pressure system as it moved inland. Ex-tropical cyclone Larry was further tracked as it moved into western Queensland to the north of Mount Isa. Larry's short life as a cyclone is attributed to its speed; the system moved very quickly over the Coral Sea dissipating nearly 24 hours after landfall.

Cyclone Larry is considered to be the worst cyclone to hit the coast of Queensland since 1931; consequently, the name "Larry" was retired on December 12, 2006.
dashboard cowman!!!!!!!!!!!


:)
Fox News is all over the blizzard coverage. Chicago is going to get slammed in an hour or two.
Is everything cool on the tail end of this system in Looziana?
Quoting Jedkins01:
It just hit 80 degrees for the first time since October of last year at my place in north Pinellas County!

Definitely the pattern has changed here in Florida. The warmer weather and increased rain has already gotten the bull frogs and leopard frogs croaking wild at night around here. Only in Florida can you hear a choir of frogs in January :)


Where do you live in North Pinellas? I live in Oldsmar. It is a beautiful, warm February day.
Quoting Surfcropper:
Fox News is all over the blizzard coverage. Chicago is going to get slammed in an hour or two.


Their record for one day is 23" (according to TWC), which might get beat.
Yowza,

Look at all the Green in the Funktop Floater Channel of TC Yasi.

Wow.


Floater - Funktop Color Infrared Loop
Quoting PcolaDan:


Their record for one day is 23" (according to TWC), which might get beat.


Yet another record to be broken. Records are smashed every week lately.
Japan volcano video: Powerful explosion creates huge plume, shatters windows



Check out the traffic cams in Kansas City MO here.
Temperatures dropped 19.8*F here this morning if five minutes! Ridiculous!



In other news...

dashboard cowman....I expected to see Godzilla in those videos....
PcolaDan:

When was that?

That's a pretty decent sized shockwave.

That was neat showing the leaves/brush fires started by the volcanic bombs.

Some of that ejecta seen in the second video was probably the size or automobiles or small buildings. It even made it's own craters on impact!
p'cola- yikes!!!
PcolaDan

Which volcano is that?
Danger zone around Japanese volcano expands

Monday, January 31, 2011
The volcano in Japan roared to life on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2011 with its first major eruption in 52 years.


KYUSHU, Japan (KABC) -- The danger zone around an erupting volcano in Japan is expanding.


Another 1,000 people were urged to find safety as the volcano on the southern island of Kyushu continues to spew smoke and ash.


Hundreds of people are staying in evacuation shelters.

Scientists said a dome of lava is growing inside the volcano, but it is uncertain whether the lava will actually flow down its sides.

The volcano roared to life on Thursday with its first major eruption in 52 years
Quoting PcolaDan:
Japan volcano video: Powerful explosion creates huge plume, shatters windows





Thanks. Those are amazing. I'm especially in awe of the shock wave rushing down the hillside in the bottom video, and the apartment building-sized boulders being blasted a few thousand feet into the air. Wow.
Quoting wxvoyeur:
PcolaDan

Which volcano is that?


Kirishima/Japan
Here is more:
http://bigthink.com/ideas/26712
Quoting NRAamy:
dashboard cowman....I expected to see Godzilla in those videos....


He was smart enough to stay away!

:)
Quoting wxvoyeur:
PcolaDan

Which volcano is that?


Kirishima in Japan.

I will try to start a new blog on it this evening.
Quoting Neapolitan:


Thanks. Those are amazing. I'm especially in awe of the shock wave rushing down the hillside in the bottom video, and the apartment building-sized boulders being blasted a few thousand feet into the air. Wow.


Watch it closely and after the shock wave you can see smoke/ash/dust (???) going back up the mountain to fill the vacuum created.
Quoting Surfcropper:


Yet another record to be broken. Records are smashed every week lately.

Yes. And there's one very good explanation for that.
Yes. And there's one very good explanation for that.


ManBearPig?
Quoting barbamz:


Kirishima/Japan
Here is more:
http://bigthink.com/ideas/26712


Hiya Barb, that was going to be my next post. :)

Off to work now all, will try an update later on the volcano.
Hi Dan, old volcano friend ...
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #11
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI (14U)
5:00 AM EST February 2 2011
=========================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category Five (924 hPa) located 15.7S 151.7E, or 650 km east northeast of Cairns and 650 km northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 160 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 15 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
130 NM from the center in southern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
190 NM from the center in northern quadrant
280 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
250 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS

SEVERE TC YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN PORT DOUGLAS AND TOWNSVILLE.

THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING RECENT GENERATIONS.

The Cyclone has now reached CATEGORY 5 and will continue to move in a west-southwesterly direction during today.

Coastal residents within the warning, and particularly between Port Douglas and Townsville are specifically warned of an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS sea level rise [i.e. storm tide] as the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast. The sea is likely to steadily rise up to a level which will be VERY DANGEROUSLY above the normal tide, with EXTREMELY DAMAGING WAVES, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible, and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by authorities.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr are expected to develop on coastal islands later this morning, then extend onto the coast during the day, and further inland across the northern tropical interior overnight.

Between Cooktown and Ingham these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with gusts in excess of 125km/hr during the afternoon and VERY DESTRUCTIVE with gusts above 280 km/hr between Port Douglas and Cardwell during the evening as the cyclone approaches. These VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds can also occur on the seaward side of hills to the north of the cyclone and are also forecast to reach the Atherton Tablelands.

FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during the afternoon and then extend inland overnight.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for island and coastal areas from Cape Melville and Sarina, extending inland to Croydon and Hughenden.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from the remaining tropical interior east of Camooweal and north of Winton.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 16.8S 148.1E - 115 knots (CAT 5)
24 HRS: 17.9S 144.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 20.3S 139.1E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 21.5S 134.7E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

Yasi has developed over the last 12 hours. DT based on eye pattern with white surround with an off white eye average over 3 hours.

Forecast to remain at this intensity until landfall in a low shear and favorable environment.

The next tropical cyclone advice on Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi will be issued at 21:00 PM UTC..
The Cyclone has now reached CATEGORY 5
that sounds bad, aqua...

Horrible!
At 4:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category Five (924 hPa) located 15.7S 151.7E, or 650 km east northeast of Cairns and 650 km northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 160 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 15 knots.


Sucks to be right. Willis Island is going to take so much damage...OMG.

160kts gusts is 185MPH.

So this is as Intense as Andrew at landfall, but above average in size.

I wonder what the IKE is for it?



Colorado State is rating the 1min sustained as 130kts, which is still upper category 4 on the SS scale.
yeah amy, it's not like a little storm going into an area where folks can handle it...this is like a katrina where no one really remembers anything like this before- no one there really has experience...well really no one SHOULD hafta have experience with a cat 5
aqua.... now it sounds really bad....

:(
Willis Island is experiencing steady winds of greater than 50 mph, with gusts to 60--and Yasi's eyewall is still a little over 100 kilometers away. Yikes...
Nea- tell us more about willis island: who lives there, the terrain, etc
193. DEKRE
All you great tropics specialists. Can somebody answer my question? Too tough?

The Willis Island Radar shows mainly light and very little moderate rain.

Can somebody explain how light to moderate rain is sufficient to feed a major TC????
The symetry is so much better even in the past 3 hours. It has closed off the yellow donut.

I would definitely not like to be on a small island with max elevation 8m in the path of Yasi...That's going to be unbelievably dangerous and intense...
dekre- it's more consolidated to the center now...have you been following the blog? nothing really needs to "feed" this monster anymore.

Just wait.
193:


Either:
1) The storm has so much lift that the rain simply isn't falling. The cloud tops are, after all, beyond the tropopause, If I did the math right.

2) The radar is under-estimating the rain.

Those are the only rational explanations based on the facts available.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Willis Island is experiencing steady winds of greater than 50 mph, with gusts to 60--and Yasi's eyewall is still a little over 100 kilometers away. Yikes...
100 kilometers = 62 miles

Not to put too much of a damper on the excitement, nor the threat, but that sounds just like Gustav, for us. He only came within ~60 miles of me and it was...about like that.
Quoting JeffMasters:
Yasi, now a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds, is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and over warm ocean waters of 29°C (84°C).


Um, please fix this. It's 29°C (84°F).
Quoting PcolaDan:


Kirishima in Japan.

I will try to start a new blog on it this evening.


See here: Link
Dallas -

Photobucket
Quoting 1900hurricane:


Wow, is Yasi trying to develop into an annular cyclone? Potentially possible if the SSTs drop another 0.5C. Also, it seems to be meandering to the south of predicted track.
Quoting EmmyRose:
Dallas -

Photobucket
Hehe, I think I can see which way is north on that as well as on any compass...
Quoting Patrap:
Yowza,

Look at all the Green in the Funktop Floater Channel of TC Yasi.

Wow.


Floater - Funktop Color Infrared Loop

Yikes! What a monster.



Rain does not "feed" a Hurricane,,it is a product of the Convection.


The Radar does not Penetrate the Dense Rain Core well in some modes and ,it also depends on the radar Type,and the Operators settings.

EMMY!!!

LOVE YOU EMMY!!!
Wow Monster storms everywhere.
I'm amazed at the severe weather here and there. Two very different weather systems with serious potential danger. Yasi is a monster!
Quoting aquak9:
The Cyclone has now reached CATEGORY 5
209. DEKRE
206: Rain does not "feed" a Hurricane,,

So, where does the energy come from, if not from condensing vapour?
Based on the latest forecast track and intensity, Yasi should be a category 5 when the eye is centered on the "M" in Moore Reef.

Find coordinates with this Willis Radar
How does the hurricane obtain its energy?
Great amounts of energy are transferred when warm water is "evaporated" from tropical seas.

This energy is stored within the water vapour contained in moist air. As this air ascends, 90% of the stored energy is released by condensation, giving rise to the towering cumulus clouds and rain.

The release of heat energy warms the air locally causing a further decrease in pressure aloft. Consequently, air rises faster to fill this area of low pressure, and more warm moist air is drawn off the sea feeding further energy to the system. Thus a self-sustaining heat engine is created.

Only as little as 3% of the heat energy may be converted mechanical energy of the circulating winds.

This relatively small amount of mechanical energy equates to a power supply of 360 billion kilowatt hours per day - or 6 months supply of electrical energy for the whole of the USA!
Quoting atmoaggie:
100 kilometers = 62 miles

Not to put too much of a damper on the excitement, nor the threat, but that sounds just like Gustav, for us. He only came within ~60 miles of me and it was...about like that.

Assuming you mean 2008's Gustav? I only mention how far the CoC is from Willis as the eye should pass directly over it in, what, four hours or so? Then it's on to the mainland, where the real fun will start...
214. DEKRE
211. Patrap 2:50 PM EST on February 01, 2011

And what happens to the condensed vapour?
It's called rain.

Quoting DEKRE:
206: Rain does not "feed" a Hurricane,,

So, where does the energy come from, if not from condensing vapour?


Condensing vapor is not rain. It forms clouds.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Assuming you mean 2008's Gustav? I only mention how far the CoC is from Willis as the eye should pass directly over it in, what, four hours or so? Then it's on to the mainland, where the real fun will start...
Oh, well, I thought you were trying to say that the winds were incredible at that distance from the center, or something. Sure seemed that way, anyway. Sry.

For reference:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Willis Island is experiencing steady winds of greater than 50 mph, with gusts to 60--and Yasi's eyewall is still a little over 100 kilometers away. Yikes...
Doda!!!!
214:

Not necessarily. A lot of the moisture is carried up into the upper level high, where it is dissipating the heat in the outflow. This moisture doesn't necesarily need to fall as "rain".
Quoting atmoaggie:
Oh, well, I thought you were trying to say that the winds were incredible at that distance from the center, or something. Sure seemed that way, anyway.

Nah, just a misinterpretation. NBD...
Man the CONUS Storm is taking up a lotta real estate..

The NASA Image says a LOT.
223. DEKRE
It is fairly obvious that the knowledge of thermodynamics in this blog is rather small. The quantities of condensed water needed to provide the quantities of energy in a TC are such that it has to rain out.

Too many make-believe specialists here
Quoting 1900hurricane:
No sign of the RI ending with a solid grey ring developing around the eye. And considering the fact that an EWRC completed yesterday (along with the favorable environment) it has become likely that Yasi makes landfall as a category 5 cyclone...if it isn't one already.
Too many make-believe specialists here

mmmmmm... nope..... Al Gore hasn't posted yet today.....
We shall be Brief,

Next time you see it "raining up" from the Ocean's thermocline instead of the Theory Proven Evaporation of Heat that Condenses to cloud/Thunderstorms to feed the Hurricanes Soul..

You save the video for me Okay?


Quoting DEKRE:
It is fairly obvious that the knowledge of thermodynamics in this blog is rather small. The quantities of condensed water needed to provide the quantities of energy in a TC are such that it has to rain out.

Too many make-believe specialists here
Try just correcting and sourcing, rather than denigrating?
Just a suggestion...

And, yes, for a cyclone that is not growing in areal cloud coverage by leaps and bounds, equivalent amounts of water that condense, rain out. Has too.
Courtesy: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

'Towers in the Tempest' is a narrated animation that explains recent scientific insights into how hurricanes intensify. This intensification can be caused by a phenomenon called a 'hot tower'. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations using a very fine temporal resolution of 3 minutes. Combining this simulation data with satellite observations enables detailed study of 'hot towers'. The science of 'hot towers' is described using: observed hurricane data from a satellite, descriptive illustrations, and volumetric visualizations of simulation data. The first section of the animation shows actual data from Hurricane Bonnie observed by NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft. Three dimensional precipitation radar data reveal a strong 'hot tower' in Hurricane Bonnie's internal structure. The second section uses illustrations to show the dynamics of a hurricane and the formation of 'hot towers'. 'Hot towers' are formed as air spirals inward towards the eye and is forced rapidly upwards, accelerating the movement of energy into high altitude clouds. The third section shows these processes using volumetric cloud, wind, and vorticity data from a supercomputer simulation of Hurricane Bonnie. Vertical wind speed data highlights a 'hot tower'. Arrows representing the wind field move rapidly up into the 'hot tower, boosting the energy and intensifying the hurricane. Combining satellite observations with super-computer simulations provides a powerful tool for studying Earth's complex systems.


And one more "Wow":

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Quoting Patrap:
Man the CONUS Storm is taking up a lotta real estate..

The NASA Image says a LOT.


some certain poster is taking uppa lotta blog real estate, too.

poof all gone, now back to NICE conversation.

Hi atmo! nice reply to "it". AND I enjoyed the pic from your mom's house.
223:

Oh really?

In an arbitrarily close to ideal heat engine, no "rain" would happen, because the maximum energy would be converted to horizonal wind, while spending the minimum energy to lift water vapor to where it is dissipated.

Rain which falls back towards the surface is less than ideal, because it cools the surface temperatures and cools the rising/spinning air collumn.

So if you were trying to imagine the worst conceivable cyclone at the "carnot limit" for a heat engine, it would not have rain at it's peak intensity. It would convert the water to dry steam and have around 66% efficiency.

Thankfully, nothing even remotely like that has ever been observed.

Think about how a power plant works. It does not work by condensing water. It works by rising vapor as dry steam which turns the turbine.

Rain which falls inside the region of inflow actually serves to decrease the efficiency of the heat engine, which weakens the storm.
AMY!!!
Quoting Patrap:
Man the CONUS Storm is taking up a lotta real estate..

The NASA Image says a LOT.
super storm anyone
799
WUUS54 KLIX 012011
SVRLIX
LAC117-MSC109-147-012100-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0009.110201T2011Z-110201T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
211 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHERN PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN WALTHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 300 PM CST

* AT 209 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF DEXTER TO 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
VARNADO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ANGIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS. IF YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A
SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 300 PM CST TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 3115 8999 3114 8994 3109 8990 3108 8983
3101 8983 3101 8961 3103 8955 3103 8950
3100 8946 3102 8942 3102 8935 3101 8933
3094 8933 3072 9016 3119 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 242DEG 52KT 3119 8984 3074 9010



95/DM


CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/


The Nexlab MS Page


SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 10
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 85 MILES NORTHWEST OF
EVERGREEN ALABAMA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 9...

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SE LA AND
SRN MS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...REACHING SW AL AROUND 23Z. OTHER
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE FROM SE LA INTO SE
MS ALONG THE LLJ AND MOIST AXIS. A SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING FROM LIX
SHOWED THAT THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY IS STILL BASED JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...BUT VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MORE
CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODES NOW OBSERVED.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...THOMPSON
any chance of a perfect storm?
241. DEKRE
Nothing worse that partial understanding.

I have been teaching thermodynamics and heat engines for the last 35 years

Water evaporates at the surface, the vapour is carried up by convection, reaching dew point it starts to condense, releasing the latent heat, about 2.5 MJ/kg.
Now you are on the wet adiabatic and the released energy is converted into kinetic (and a little bit of potential) energy.

What happens to the droplets afterwards is of no consequence to the energy cycle. As the volume in a TC is limited (even though big) they have to fall out.
Quoting NRAamy:
any chance of a perfect storm?


Only if you are in Tulsa.
Only if you are in Tulsa.
hmmmm....nope...

:)
Not at all uncommon for someone to be teaching something wrong for an extended period of time.
What happens to the droplets afterwards is of no consequence to the energy cycle.


Wrong professor.

If the water falls back down the same region it came, it must be-reheated and re-evaporated, or otherwise it falls onto the surface of the heat source. This is a HUGE waste of energy, especially when dealing with water.


In terms of intensifying a cyclone, the water being totally carried away by the anti-cyclone aloft is much more efficient than having the water fall back down as rain.

Rain falling in the body of the cyclone is analogous to having liquid water fall down a steam turbine. It ruins everything and becomes a waste of energy.
Barksdale AFB 28 F

New Orleans NAS 70 F

42 F Spread




Winds now 155.15480. Very tight eye.


Quoting DEKRE:


Can somebody explain how light to moderate rain is sufficient to feed a major TC????

why don't you get what folks have been saying, and why they state it? the energy evaporating from the ocean feeds the storm.

your statement is synonymous to saying the exhaust from a car powers it. but the exhaust is a byproduct of gasoline combustion. in the same respect, rain is the byproduct of the energy feeding the storm. you clearly understand the mechanisms of heat transfer and condensation, but you've got the relationship backwards when indicating rain itself, the byproduct, as feeding the system.

a potent storm needn't produce massive quantities of rain, nor would rain production be necessary to assist in intensification. note the responses above which detail the relationship quite well.
Austrailia is screwed, and so is the US
Australia getting one category five cyclone every year now, though their category five scale is for any storms with 125-130 knots (1 min).
Quoting RitaEvac:
Austrailia is screwed, and so is the US


I think the US will recover quicker than australia
Quoting Grothar:

something wicked this way comes
Quoting aquak9:


I think the US will recover quicker than australia

Except, for Australia, this is one in a series of recent weather disasters...
Is Yasi moving SOUTH of that forecast track?

When's their next forecast due?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

something wicked this way comes


Hey, Ray!!
Is Yasi moving SOUTH of that forecast track?

When's their next forecast due?


================
The next advice from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane is around 21:00 PM UTC.
Quoting Patrap:
Jackson Square Cam
Live Webcam of New Orleans in front of St. Louis Cathedral
Thanks for the link Patrap. What a dreary day. No one is in the Stanley Restaurant right now. Does it close during the day? Or just open at night.
Yes, it has wobbed south of today's forecast center line, but I believe it is still a bit North of yesterday's center lines, if that makes sense.


Willis just might get lucky and get the "right" side of the eye-wall, instead of the "left", which may serve to help less the effects of surge...
RE:post 238,
Thanks for posting that Pat,it has more discussion info than I have.
'preciate it.
245 not so fast. This is old but as it hasn't been addressed in the discussion it seems to be a good starting point.


On formation and intensification of tropical cyclones through latent heat release by cumulus convection (1964)


and 244 NO. He never said he was a met instructor. At least he is attempting to broaden his knowledge and is way WAY above reproach from you.

Ignorance knows no bounds and hides in its own promotion.
254:

OMG...

That CI intensity estimate has 906mb...

That's the same as Camille...

Whereas the 922mb estimates are similar to Katrina and Andrew at landfall...
269. IKE
Check out the latest, 12Z ECMWF. Next week a blast of cold air dives all the way south and east through Florida...can't link it on here though. Link button won't work.
stanleyrestaurant.com

Not sure about Stanley's as I havent been in..



271. DEKRE
267. JFLORIDA 3:56 PM EST on February 01, 2011

I guess you mean 245?

Considering the "answers" I received to my question, I doubt there are many here able to digest that paper.
272. eddye
ike how cold does it show in south florida next week u said a cold front coming
Quoting IKE:
Check out the latest, 12Z ECMWF. Next week a blast of cold air dives all the way south and east through Florida...can't link it on here though. Link button won't work.


Ike- I don't wanna see it anyways. can ya hold off on that for a few more days please?


Yasi Funktop Image

Quoting JFLORIDA:
254 not so fast. This is old but as it hasn't been addressed in the discussion it seems to be a good starting point.


On formation and intensification of tropical cyclones through latent heat release by cumulus convection (1964)



and 244 NO. He never said he was a met instructor. At least he is attempting to broaden his knowledge and is way WAY above reproach from you.

Ignorance knows no bounds and hides in its own promotion.


Kinda just proved your own point, Eh?
276. IKE

Quoting aquak9:


Ike- I don't wanna see it anyways. can ya hold off on that for a few more days please?
LOL.
Quoting DEKRE:
267. JFLORIDA 3:56 PM EST on February 01, 2011

I guess you mean 245?

Considering the "answers" I received to my question, I doubt there are many here able to digest that paper.


Yes, thank you! - the wonderful thing about numbers and direct and logical reference is it always comes out in the wash! Working the night audit 7 years at least gave me that.

You'd be surprised at the abilities of some of the lurkers here. I have been.
271:

I can link you to another paper if you like which can show what I was talking about.

Cyclones are not ideal heat engines, so they are less than perfect, and have rain.

The rain does not enhance the cyclone's intensity. That claim was ridiculous.

A heat engine is powered by difference between hot and cold reservoir and ideally you want to convert the maximum amount of that energy to work.

Having something that has already been cooled falling back into the area of the heat sink is a source of loss of efficiency.

Limits on Hurricane Intensity: Dr. Kerry Emanuel
Quoting DEKRE:
267. JFLORIDA 3:56 PM EST on February 01, 2011

I guess you mean 245?

Considering the "answers" I received to my question, I doubt there are many here able to digest that paper.
so then, you get your semantic error folks have been addressing... i doubt you have it wrong in your head, but you sure made an arguable statement.
279 - Well it would also have to do with the stage of development also I would think. Both situations could be of varying importance throughout a cyclones' life.

Honestly I dont EVEN KNOW if specifically a "tropical cyclone" minus energy input exclusively is wholly a steady state condition. I assumed it was. But assumption gets you into trouble.
Quoting eddye:
ike how cold does it show in south florida next week u said a cold front coming




at the end of the run look way to the north is that a Siberian express i see stay tune
Winfield

Looks like they're calling it 912.

Wind field is huge. The south side of this storm has a really, really large zone of 50kts or greater winds.
Size Matters as to Impact in this one..




Thats way down the ol Barometer.


Quoting Patrap:
stanleyrestaurant.com

Not sure about Stanley's as I havent been in..



Well since it had a web cam, I figured it might be famous. Looks like another burger joint or "greasy" spoon. I haven't been to NOLA since 1968 when I was a teenager. I guess like everywhere else, when you live in a great City as New Orleans(or Key West) you really don't get to every spot to know what it is like. I like that last link you posted. Nice commercial. YUMMMMMMMMM
We trend to the Uptown restaurants along Magazine St., but take Friends and Visitors to a Few Ol Time established French Quarter Restaurants.

Remember 1968 well.

Was a Long year then 3 round the Moon Xmas Eve.

One dont ferget that stuff,,



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




at the end of the run look way to the north is that a Siberian express i see stay tune


Yeah I've been watching that.. Not good for the crops down here if it stays current.. Wacky weather I tell ya..
Quoting DEKRE:
267. JFLORIDA 3:56 PM EST on February 01, 2011

I guess you mean 245?

Considering the "answers" I received to my question, I doubt there are many here able to digest that paper.
I opened it up, saw the age and said why bother. Probably outdated and I'm too busy at the moment. But you are right in some respects, I have no training whatsoever in weather, just experience in dodging hurricanes.
Looks like a little dry air is halting intensification..
Morning all.
for the 1st time since I have been on here. I am speechless about a Cyclone, utterly speechless. What we are looking at is a killer, something our nation does not need right now.

Dear Mother Nature. I am sorry for being a naughty boy. The whole of Australia is sorry for p***ing you off. Please, do not take your fury out on us. This comes from the bottom of my heart. I AM SORRY.
(I am being serious)
Quoting AussieStorm:
Morning all.
for the 1st time since I have been on here. I am speechless about a Cyclone, utterly speechless. What we are looking at is a killer, something our nation does not need right now.

Dear Mother Nature. I am sorry for being a naughty boy. The whole of Australia is sorry for p***ing you off. Please, do not take your fury out on us. This comes from the bottom of my heart. I AM SORRY.
(I am being serious)

feeling the pain, here.
Stay Strong, Aussie.
279 thanks thats interesting. A different approach from another perspective.

I usually try for the most recent - but the thing about older articles is they are generally easier to understand and as science builds on previous knowledge and theory If you keep a critical and open mind eventually you will get to the truth.

It will take work but sometimes i think a slower approach where you actually understand the material inside and out is better than knowing the answer immediately.

If an article is older I look for citations then use it to harvest search terms for more recent material.

Also I LOVE the direct and easily visualize-able conversions to mathematics you find in more basic references.
I'm surprised Willis' radar is still up and being refreshed.

As strong as this thing is, there is the real potential of loss of communication or destruction of the radar site at some point...
Quoting AussieStorm:
Morning all.
for the 1st time since I have been on here. I am speechless about a Cyclone, utterly speechless. What we are looking at is a killer, something our nation does not need right now.

Dear Mother Nature. I am sorry for being a naughty boy. The whole of Australia is sorry for p***ing you off. Please, do not take your fury out on us. This comes from the bottom of my heart. I AM SORRY.
(I am being serious)


Be strong and hope nothing happens to anyone over there.. I got some friends over there and hope they are safe as well.. These storms are no fun at all.. I hope its not a sign to come for us in the US..
297. DEKRE
294. JFLORIDA 4:34 PM EST on February 01, 2011

Trouble is, try solving those equations LOL

Actually, in basic knowledge, you won't find anything better - progress has been made only in ways of solving (modeling)
Kinda makes sense, these two extremes. This one in northern hemisphere, and Yasi in southern. Nature seeking balance.

Feb 1, 2011 2100z

image: Nexrad, NRL Monterey

Best wishes and take care all who are in the path of either of these storm systems.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Morning all.
for the 1st time since I have been on here. I am speechless about a Cyclone, utterly speechless. What we are looking at is a killer, something our nation does not need right now.

Dear Mother Nature. I am sorry for being a naughty boy. The whole of Australia is sorry for p***ing you off. Please, do not take your fury out on us. This comes from the bottom of my heart. I AM SORRY.
(I am being serious)


Aussie, stay strong, brother...
Morning all.
for the 1st time since I have been on here. I am speechless about a Cyclone, utterly speechless. What we are looking at is a killer, something our nation does not need right now.
-----

the 885 hPa reported from Japan Meteorological Agency was shocking to me. Since I've never seen a cyclone reported by them lower than 905 hPa.
the 885 hPa reported from Japan Meteorological Agency was shocking to me. Since I've never seen a cyclone reported by them lower than 905 hPa.


Huh?

When was that?

That pressure would correspond to a t-8.0...

I don't see anyone else reporting above a 7.5 for raw data just yet, let alone an official intensity...

The Potential intensity maps from yesterday supported the possibility of an 8.0, but today the churning of the water has messed things up enough that they no longer show that for the region, except a few weird pockets near the coast, which is probably unrealistic due to land interactions.

Still, t-8.0 would be insane.

So according to Japan, this storm is roughly as strong as Wilma's peak, or the Labor Day hurricane at landfall...

Not buying it just yet. They aren't reporting anywhere near 185mph sustained winds....
Quoting DEKRE:
294. JFLORIDA 4:34 PM EST on February 01, 2011

Trouble is, try solving those equations LOL

Actually, in basic knowledge, you won't find anything better - progress has been made only in ways of solving (modeling)


Oh you mean substituting in for a known variables. Oh modeling? Lets not go there. I just like seeing it I recall saying
! lol.
Recent NASA image.

Good Night All. Everyone stay safe, in the US and Australia. See you in the morning.
A repeat from earlier with update images. Take your pick:

Kansas City:
Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Naples, FL
Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


;-)
307. DEKRE
303. JFLORIDA 4:48 PM EST on February 01, 2011

You know, for basic knowledge, the age of a paper isn't a measure of importance. One of my PhD students actually had to go back to the very beginning of the 20th century for several of his references! (basic papers by Angstrom etc)
Quoting kwgirl:
Good Night All. Everyone stay safe, in the US and Australia. See you in the morning.
good night.

Yasi is traversing (10S - 20S, 145E - 160E) were 1.2°C above average during December, the latest month we have data for from the UK Hadley Center. This is the highest value on record, going back to the early 1900s.

From the blog above.
RecordSeason

It was 2010. The cyclone name was Megi
Category 5 (according to Australia)
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
RecordSeason

It was 2010. The cyclone name was Megi


Oh, ok. I must have missed something.

Goodness, I thought you were talking about Yasi...
Kinda just proved your own point, Eh?


nyuck nyuck nyuck....

:)


SQUAWK!!!
Quoting DEKRE:
303. JFLORIDA 4:48 PM EST on February 01, 2011

You know, for basic knowledge, the age of a paper isn't a measure of importance. One of my PhD students actually had to go back to the very beginning of the 20th century for several of his references! (basic papers by Angstrom etc)


wow. In art you can go back centuries and sometimes its even MORE accurate!

Oh on the papers note - posted this article yesterday you might like it also - I am still digesting it (which means I read it several times till something finally sinks in)

Infrared radiation and planetary temperature

oh heh, sorry.

Yasi is down to 922 hPa in the 21:00 PM advice.

Gusts now near 160 knots
317. DEKRE
314. JFLORIDA 4:59 PM EST on February 01, 2011

I thought about posting that But I could find an accessible version, the site of Physics Today is members only.
I ran across it after some searching. Its was worth the look.
yasi is moving quite fast for a monster storm
322. MTWX
Quoting Floodman:


Aussie, stay strong, brother...
Our prayers are with you and the Australian people!! Hope things don't get anywhere near as bad as they look!!
Latest weather obs from Willis Island.
Link
Please note, I think the weather vain is broken. I find it strange the wind went from SSE to NNW within 10mins.
The eye of Yasi will pass right over the Radar site of Willis Island.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI (14U)
8:00 AM EST February 2 2011
=========================================

At 7:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category Five (922 hPa) located 16.1S 150.9E, or 555 km east of Cairns and 560 km northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 160 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 15 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
130 NM from the center in southern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
190 NM from the center in northern quadrant
280 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
250 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS

SEVERE TC YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN CAIRNS AND TOWNSVILLE.

THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING RECENT GENERATIONS.

TC Yasi, CATEGORY 5, will continue to move in a west-southwesterly direction during the day. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast in the Innisfail area at about midnight.

Coastal residents within the warning area, and particularly between Cairns and Ayr are specifically warned of an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SEA LEVEL RISE [i.e. storm tide] as the cyclone approaches, crosses the coast and moves inland. The sea is likely to steadily rise up to a level which will be VERY DANGEROUSLY above the normal tide, with EXTREMELY DAMAGING WAVES, STRONG CURRENTS and FLOODING of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible, and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by authorities.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr that are currently developing on coastal islands, are forecast to develop about the coast by late morning and about the tropical interior overnight.

Between Cape Tribulation and Ingham these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with gusts in excess of 125km/hr during the afternoon and early evening and VERY DESTRUCTIVE with gusts up to 300 km/hr between Cairns and Ingham during the evening as the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast. These VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds can also occur on the seaward side of hills to the north of the cyclone and are also forecast to reach the Atherton Tablelands.

Winds are forecast to ease about the east coast during Thursday morning as the cyclone moves inland.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for island and coastal areas from Cape Melville to Sarina, extending inland to Croydon and Richmond.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the remaining tropical interior east of Camooweal and north of Winton.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Brisbane will be issued at around 1:00 AM UTC..
Willis Island is now the Wildest Weather on Earth,..sans Tropical woes.


The Coastal Landfall is going to occur during the Hours of darkness...for the most part.

Im sure the Coastie's and those in the warned areas are rushing to completion their preps today.


Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop


IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cape Melville and Sarina, extending
inland to Croydon and Richmond are requested to USE the Standard Emergency
Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:54am EST on Wednesday the 2nd of February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for island and coastal areas from Cape Melville to
Sarina, extending inland to Croydon and Richmond.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the remaining tropical interior east of Camooweal
and north of Winton.

At 7:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 5 was estimated to be
555 kilometres east of Cairns and 560 kilometres northeast of Townsville
moving west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.

SEVERE TC YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN
EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN CAIRNS AND TOWNSVILLE.

THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING
RECENT GENERATIONS.

TC Yasi, CATEGORY 5, will continue to move in a west-southwesterly direction
during the day. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast in the Innisfail area
at about midnight.

Coastal residents within the warning area, and particularly between Cairns and
Ayr are specifically warned of an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SEA LEVEL RISE
[i.e. storm tide] as the cyclone approaches, crosses the coast and moves inland.
The sea is likely to steadily rise up to a level which will be VERY DANGEROUSLY
above the normal tide, with EXTREMELY DAMAGING WAVES, STRONG CURRENTS and
FLOODING of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas
likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their
property as much as possible, and be prepared to follow instructions regarding
evacuation of the area if advised to do so by authorities.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr that are currently developing on coastal
islands, are forecast to develop about the coast by late morning and about the
tropical interior overnight.

Between Cape Tribulation and Ingham these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with
gusts in excess of 125km/hr during the afternoon and early evening and VERY
DESTRUCTIVE with gusts up to 300 km/hr between Cairns and Ingham during the
evening as the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast. These VERY DESTRUCTIVE
winds can also occur on the seaward side of hills to the north of the cyclone
and are also forecast to reach the Atherton Tablelands.

Winds are forecast to ease about the east coast during Thursday morning as the
cyclone moves inland.

FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during the afternoon and
then extend inland overnight.
People between Cape Melville and Sarina, extending inland to Croydon and
Richmond should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a
safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

People about the remaining tropical interior east of Camooweal and north of
Winton should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat
increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 7:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.1 degrees South 150.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 295 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 922 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST Wednesday 02 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.


Quoting AussieStorm:
Incredible temp gradient. 61� in Shreveport, LA. 21� in Dallas at 7am CT. Difference of just 185 miles


That is incredible!
This is what Willis Island looks like..... Right now, Imagine 38feet waves on 100kt winds.



I'm thinking,,,, underwater.
Double trouble tonight, eh? A TC and a massive blizzard/severe outbreak....Already have ~6in here, and its just starting.
sorry ...but I have to post this...


http://www.wthr.com
Company Overview:
NBC Affiliate in Indianapolis, IN
150 mph sustained winds..


EDIT: I guess thats not live coverage. Anyone know where to view News coverage out of AU (preferably Queensland area)
Quoting AussieStorm:
This is what Willis Island looks like..... Right now, Imagine 38feet waves on 100kt winds.



I'm thinking,,,, underwater.

Indeed. And I believe we just lost Willis radar; the Cairns-based 512 km shows a sudden loss of input, if I'm reading things the right way.

WeatherZone Australia has a nice short write-up on the worst cyclones to hit Australia recently.
333. DEKRE
328. AussieStorm 5:28 PM EST on February 01, 2011

I didn't know radar works under water!
Preliminary point temps/pops...


College Station (cll) 14 31 15 29 22
Houston (iah) 19 35 21 34 23
Galveston (gls) 25 40 29 35 31

335. DEKRE
332. Neapolitan 5:33 PM EST on February 01, 2011
Latest is 22:00 UTC
Quoting Neapolitan:

Indeed. And I believe we just lost Willis radar; the Cairns-based 512 km shows a sudden loss of input, if I'm reading things the right way.

WeatherZone Australia has a nice short write-up on the worst cyclones to hit Australia recently.

Try Willis Island Radar, almost in the eye.

Here is a link to Channel 9 live stream. let me know if it works. They are in Cairns.
Houston/Galveston NWS getting low on the lows and more confident about winter snow event taking place Thursday Night and Friday morning just like the Christmas 04' event
Quoting Ameister12:
Category 5 (according to Australia)


Going to be a very bad night in Innisfail tomorrow night...nothing but warm SSTs and low (5-10 knt) shear between Yasi and landfall around 10 tomorrow night:

img src="">
Wind Shear


SSTs

Notice that the SSTs actually rise as you approach the northern coast...
Quoting Ossqss:



Jeez...I've never realized that Australia is as big as it is actually--I notice that it's shown behind the US.
Quoting Floodman:


Going to be a very bad night in Innisfail tomorrow night...nothing but warm SSTs and low (5-10 knt) shear between Yasi and landfall around 10 tomorrow night:

img src="">
Wind Shear


SSTs

Notice that the SSTs actually rise as you approach the northern coast...

It's set to hit between 10pm tonight and 1am Thursday Morning. High tide is at 9pm. Mayor from Cairns they are expecting 5meter/16feet storm tide/surge.
Quoting kwgirl:
Well since it had a web cam, I figured it might be famous. Looks like another burger joint or "greasy" spoon. I haven't been to NOLA since 1968 when I was a teenager. I guess like everywhere else, when you live in a great City as New Orleans(or Key West) you really don't get to every spot to know what it is like. I like that last link you posted. Nice commercial. YUMMMMMMMMM
The Gumbo Shoppe is near there, and well worth the visit! (And without the $60 a plate "specials" at some of the other joints around there).
Does New Zealand ever get Hurricanes? imagine a storm of this size hitting there...
OMG...

Do these people know how to prepare for something like this?

TAPE!

My God, that's no good at all...

They need a half inch of plywood before it even matters...


If this thing comes on shore this strong, it's going to look just like Katrina in Louisian and Mississippi.

You're going to see stick frame buildings annihilated, and metal buildings and even some brick buildings gutted.
This is how serious they are taking TC Yasi. Police are asking people to please stay inside. Once the winds hit 100km/h, will close all roads in Cairns. Traffic lights are being dismantled.
Backpacker hostels on the Cairns Esplanade are asking people to leave as they can not guarentee peoples safety.
Will the dry slot punch far enough north to keep Chicago under 20" of snow?
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Still GFS is trying to finish up its model runs..
Quoting DEKRE:
303. JFLORIDA 4:48 PM EST on February 01, 2011

You know, for basic knowledge, the age of a paper isn't a measure of importance. One of my PhD students actually had to go back to the very beginning of the 20th century for several of his references! (basic papers by Angstrom etc)
Correct. Much of the basic understanding in tropical meteorology was published in the 60s and 70s. If you see a paper from that era, try to find out how many other publications cited that older one. Some of them have been cited hundreds of times and by the most current papers. Then, you know you have one of the important, and still accepted, ones.

Some of the journal websites provide the citation list for paper you are searching for.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Does New Zealand ever get Hurricanes? imagine a storm of this size hitting there...

New Zealand was hit by Cyclone Wilma on Saturday night, Cat 2.
Nice pics Neo. Im sitting here at work in downtown Kansas City watching snow pile up quickly. Its going to be an unpleasant drive home as blizzard conditions are picking up, thankfully the heaviest snowfall is over, now its just to moderate but winds will really get going here soon.
All my Aussie friends....Please don't take any reckless chances..Been through Andrew, Wilma, It ain't fun....Please be careful




^^^ Yikes its coming for me..
Comms were lost with Willis Is. at ~14:20 CST (20:20 UTC).
oops!

Make that 16:20 CST and 22:20 UTC! (duh, bad time zone conversion...sry)

And radome damaged just prior.

Something like this? Maybe?
so cold here in Austin, Texas after the biggest Winter storm since the mid 1900's.
Today it only reached 31 degrees, the winds howled at 50 mph, and the low is 16 with the chill at 6. tomorrow's high is 29 and the wind will drop the temp. down to 0 and 5 degrees, and when the next plume of moisture comes on thursday we will see snow THU and FRI. although the estimated accumulation will be around .75 or an inch.


Source: BoM
To everyone in Australia, hunker down. What we ourselves in the South have been through can never compare to what you are about to experience. God Speed to all and stay safe.
My Ustream live feed is up and running.

Live video by Ustream
Yasi is a MONSTER! Stay safe, Aussies!
Willis Island does not exist right now, it's currently under water
Quoting AussieStorm:

Try Willis Island Radar, almost in the eye.

Here is a link to Channel 9 live stream. let me know if it works. They are in Cairns.

That's the one I was saying; it hasn't updated in an hour.
my sister in Kansas City says they are declaring a state of emergency, full scale mobilization of emergency services, non essential work stopped and are asking people to stay home.
363. BDAwx
Quoting AussieStorm:

New Zealand was hit by Cyclone Wilma on Saturday night, Cat 2.


that was category 2 on the Australian scale rather than the saffir-simpson scale.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Comms were lost with Willis Is. at ~14:20 CST (20:20 UTC).

And radome damaged just prior.

Something like this? Maybe?


Looks Like a slice,,9 iron
I'll be staying home once the flurries start here in SE TX, you don't drive when a trace of snow starts down here
Quoting Patrap:


Looks Like a slice,,9 iron


Metal spikes on the soccer field. Red Card. Player ejected.
hey everyone,

checking in from south central Indiana,

temperatures have hovered around 33-34 degrees all night last night and all day today. pouring rain, still.

not sure how much ice we will get, but it is certainly going to get windier as the low moves about 50-60 miles to my south.

I will be out driving here in about half an hour, and will be broadcasting live. you can watch it here: http://thextremeweather.com/xtreme-weather-cam.html

hope everyone is staying safe and having a great first day of February!
Hey Everyone.. Just checking What Wilma did for my Samoan girl friend. Serious weather swings going on I really should be paying more attention.

Everyone down under stay safe high and I hope dry. yasi moves fast won't be too bad I hope but a hit from a strong typhoon is never good.

Stateside you people stay warm and be careful!
Quoting AussieStorm:
My Ustream live feed is up and running.

Live video by Ustream

Sorry, the stream stopped
Wilis Island is still transmitting obs. now in the eye. Link
Quoting BDAwx:


that was category 2 on the Australian scale rather than the saffir-simpson scale.

Correct
Quoting BDAwx:


that was category 2 on the Australian scale rather than the saffir-simpson scale.
Austrailia has its' own scale..I'll look it up. learn something new every time I'm here.
02/09:00am 26.9 34.5 26.8 99 0.1 CALM 0 0 0 0 938.0 937.9 62.2
02/08:42am 25.9 32.9 25.9 100 0.0 CALM 0 0 0 0 939.0 - 61.6
02/08:37am 25.7 32.6 25.7 100 0.0 CALM 0 0 0 0 941.5 - 59.6
02/08:10am 25.6 5.6 25.6 100 0.0 N 141 185 76 100 955.1 - 31.8



Maybe they were lucky and on a "weak spot"?

I know they are definitely in the eye for the last 3 data points, but the eye wall data does not at all match the warning intensity in any way.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Sorry, the stream stopped
Wilis Island is still transmitting obs. now in the eye. Link


Those wind speeds aren't Cat 5.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Sorry, the stream stopped
Wilis Island is still transmitting obs. now in the eye. Link
Hmm, my info came from a BOM source, but it does look like general obs are still happening. Cool.
Quoting sailingallover:
Hey Everyone.. Just checking What Wilma did for my Samoan girl friend. Serious weather swings going on I really should be paying more attention.

Everyone down under stay safe high and I hope dry. yasi moves fast won't be too bad I hope but a hit from a strong typhoon is never good.

Stateside you people stay warm and be careful!

Here is a video of Wilma effects in NZ
Here is a photo gallery
Quoting sailingallover:
Austrailia has its' own scale..I'll look it up. learn something new every time I'm here.

Here ya go...
Link


Looks like it skipped the most intense part. From last measurement to core there was a sudden jump of rain (about 30 mm).
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Those wind speeds aren't Cat 5.
Even on a small island, land-based obs of sustained surface wind are always attenuated some, relative to open water.

(which is why it's such a terrible metric for comparing storms, especially historic ones, pre-SFMR)
Raining in the eye! 938 mb at least isn't as bad as 922 or 895 some agencies were reporting.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Sorry, the stream stopped
Wilis Island is still transmitting obs. now in the eye. Link
"9.49am NASA reports Cyclone Yasi is creating 11.5m waves in the Coral Sea."

Wow. That's close to 40foot waves, I wouldn't want to be anywhere near Yasi.
Quoting AussieStorm:
This is how serious they are taking TC Yasi. Police are asking people to please stay inside. Once the winds hit 100km/h, will close all roads in Cairns. Traffic lights are being dismantled.
Backpacker hostels on the Cairns Esplanade are asking people to leave as they can not guarentee peoples safety.


Reminds me of back in 08 during Ike they told residents of Galveston to write their SSN on their body in marker so they could identify your body if you planned on going outside in the middle of it or a hurricane party.
Quoting Xyrus2000:
Looks like it skipped the most intense part. From last measurement to core there was a sudden jump of rain (about 30 mm).

there is no info for 27mins. 30mm in 27mins can happen.
Quoting RecordSeason:
02/09:00am 26.9 34.5 26.8 99 0.1 CALM 0 0 0 0 938.0 937.9 62.2
02/08:42am 25.9 32.9 25.9 100 0.0 CALM 0 0 0 0 939.0 - 61.6
02/08:37am 25.7 32.6 25.7 100 0.0 CALM 0 0 0 0 941.5 - 59.6
02/08:10am 25.6 5.6 25.6 100 0.0 N 141 185 76 100 955.1 - 31.8



Maybe they were lucky and on a "weak spot"?

I know they are definitely in the eye for the last 3 data points, but the eye wall data does not at all match the warning intensity in any way.


Yes they are on the weaker, west side. With winds of 85 MPH G to 95 MPH..Probably 135 MPH on the other side :)
Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes they are on the weaker, west side. With winds of 85 MPH G to 95 MPH..Probably 135 MPH on the other side :)

i'm waiting to see what the eastern side has.
Quoting AussieStorm:

i'm waiting to see what the eastern side has.
Well, the intensity of the sides really has only to do with the translational velocity (including direction)...at sea (excluding any dry air intrusion or land-effects).

With it moving west, the north side should have the highest sustained winds. The east side might not be much different from the west side, in this case. (hope the obs hold out so we can see it...)
Just West of Chicago. Aurora IL.
KARR 012324Z 05026G34KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV003 M06/M07 A2987 RMK AO2 PK WND 06040/2302 P0000
Seems like Willis isn't updating anymore. It's been 41 minutes with no obs.
Quoting RecordSeason:
02/09:00am 26.9 34.5 26.8 99 0.1 CALM 0 0 0 0 938.0 937.9 62.2
02/08:42am 25.9 32.9 25.9 100 0.0 CALM 0 0 0 0 939.0 - 61.6
02/08:37am 25.7 32.6 25.7 100 0.0 CALM 0 0 0 0 941.5 - 59.6
02/08:10am 25.6 5.6 25.6 100 0.0 N 141 185 76 100 955.1 - 31.8



Maybe they were lucky and on a "weak spot"?

I know they are definitely in the eye for the last 3 data points, but the eye wall data does not at all match the warning intensity in any way.



Did you notice this...

Wed 06:10 EST
S 102 126 25.9 24.8 28.0 94 13 High - 982.0

Wed 06:15 EST
NNW 102 139 25.6 24.7 27.0 95 12 High 10.8 981.4

I'm guessing this is when the weather vain broke.
And this is when the wind sensor failed
Wed 08:10 EST
N 141 185 25.6 25.6 27.0 100 25 VH 31.8 955.1

Wed 08:37 EST
- 0 0 25.7 25.7 27.0 100 1 Low 59.6 941.5
Quoting Xyrus2000:
Seems like Willis isn't updating anymore. It's been 41 minutes with no obs.

obs from Willis Island....
Wed 09:30 EST
- 0 0 27.1 27.0 32.0 99 1 Low - 938.4
Wed 09:20 EST
- 0 0 27.6 27.5 34.0 99 1 Low - 937.8
Wed 09:10 EST
- 0 0 27.2 26.9 32.0 98 1 Low - 938.0
Wed 09:00 EST
- 0 0 26.9 26.8 31.0 99 1 Low 62.2 938.0
Wed 09:00 EST
- 0 0 26.9 26.8 31.0 99 1 Low - 938.0
Wed 08:50 EST
- 0 0 26.3 26.3 29.0 100 1 Low - 938.8
Wed 08:42 EST
- 0 0 25.9 25.9 28.0 100 1 Low 61.6 939.0
Wed 08:40 EST
- 0 0 25.9 25.9 28.0 100 1 Low - 940.0
Wed 08:37 EST
- 0 0 25.7 25.7 27.0 100 1 Low 59.6 941.5
Wed 08:10 EST
N 141 185 25.6 25.6 27.0 100 25 VH 31.8 955.1
NWS says up to .25 inches of ice and possibly 2 inches of snow towards the end of the week in Houston!
Quoting Xyrus2000:
Seems like Willis isn't updating anymore. It's been 41 minutes with no obs.
Dang. Wanted to see wind data for the other side, too. (Assuming it would be of any decent quality vs. a busted anemometer or bent-over pole, etc.)
Quoting AussieStorm:

obs from Willis Island....
Wed 09:30 EST
- 0 0 27.1 27.0 32.0 99 1 Low - 938.4
Wed 09:20 EST
- 0 0 27.6 27.5 34.0 99 1 Low - 937.8
Wed 09:10 EST
- 0 0 27.2 26.9 32.0 98 1 Low - 938.0
Wed 09:00 EST
- 0 0 26.9 26.8 31.0 99 1 Low 62.2 938.0
Wed 09:00 EST
- 0 0 26.9 26.8 31.0 99 1 Low - 938.0
Wed 08:50 EST
- 0 0 26.3 26.3 29.0 100 1 Low - 938.8
Wed 08:42 EST
- 0 0 25.9 25.9 28.0 100 1 Low 61.6 939.0
Wed 08:40 EST
- 0 0 25.9 25.9 28.0 100 1 Low - 940.0
Wed 08:37 EST



Of course it updates right after I comment. :P
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I'm using Link, but the last obs I see is 9:00am
*just* refreshed. 9:30 update.
Yeah, nevermind.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Dang. Wanted to see wind data for the other side, too. (Assuming it would be of any decent quality vs. a busted anemometer or bent-over pole, etc.)

there has been no wind obs since 08:10 EST
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=200283&list=ob
Quoting atmoaggie:
*just* refreshed. 9:30 update.

Pressure is going up.
938.6hPa now
390:

Yes, I see the numbers, but they don't make sense, because what is being reported in km/h are numbers that are about what you would expect in kts for a storm of this pressure.

The numbers don't make sense at all.

TPPS12 PGTW 012105

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI)

B. 01/2030Z

C. 16.0S

D. 150.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
01/1518Z 15.3S 152.3E AMSR
01/1519Z 15.4S 152.3E MMHS
01/1606Z 15.6S 152.1E MMHS
01/1846Z 15.7S 151.4E TRMM


HATHAWAY
WTPS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 153.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 153.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.9S 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.1S 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.5S 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.7S 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.7S 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 152.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (YASI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A 10 NM EYE, FROM WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW AND ABRF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 115 TO 127 KNOTS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH, ALONG WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
HAS ALLOWED FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC
11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS. AROUND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF CAIRNS AND BEGIN
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS INLAND. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND TRACK CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.//
NNNN

LOL.

Eye has a dew point of 27 celsius.

That's ridiculous.
Quoting RecordSeason:
390:

Yes, I see the numbers, but they don't make sense, because what is being reported in km/h are numbers that are about what you would expect in kts for a storm of this pressure.

The numbers don't make sense at all.


If you use this link
On the right side you can adjust Units
Temperatures: C or F
Wind speeds: km/h or kt
Rainfall: mm or in
Heights: m or ft

Willis Island Radar is out....
Radar service is currently unavailable due to:
Sorry outage information is currently unavailable.
pressure going back down....
Wed 09:50 EST
- 0 0 79.5 79.3 86.0 99 1 Low - 937.6

Info of Willis Island
Location:Willis Island (lat 16.288 deg S, long 149.965 deg E)
Type: TVDR 2500 (C Band)
Availability (Typical): Radar Availability (Typical): 0000-0315, 0430-0915, 1030-1515, 1630-2115, 2230-2400 (EST)
Interpretation Notes:

Geographical Situation
Willis Island is a small island located in the Coral Sea approximately 450 km east of Cairns. The total land area is 7.7 hectares and the islands highest point is 9 m above sea level. Natural grass covers much of the land together with several coconut and casuarina trees that have been planted near the meteorological office buildings. The Willis Island radar is well located to observe rainfall from tropical cyclones which can approach the coast of Tropical North Queensland between November and April.

Meteorological Aspects
The radar view is unrestricted in all directions and heavy rain due to strong convection and thunderstorms may be detected up to a maximum range of approximately 300 km. However, light showers will only be detected at a reduced range of the order of 200 km. The radar beam may lose power when passing through heavy rain near the radar and this can reduce the effective range of the radar and the intensity of the returned echoes. Willis Island can be affected by tropical depressions and tropical cyclones during the northern wet season and experiences prevailing southeasterly trade winds during the dry. Rain echoes from severe tropical cyclones will rotate about a clear central eye with the heaviest rainfall usually located near the eye.

Non-meteorological aspects
During times of strong winds, false echoes from the sea surface or sea clutter may be visible in any direction. This is most likely to occur during dry season months when surges in the southeasterly trade winds are common. Sea clutter may be distinguished from rain echoes because it does not move with the background winds.


I wouldn't be surprised Willis Island is underwater. Hence no wind and pressure going up and down.
Quoting Xyrus2000:
Seems like Willis isn't updating anymore. It's been 41 minutes with no obs.


willis maybe no more

a cyclone can stripped the land of everything so that nothing remains but the dirt and the water and the water at 40 feet may have simply wash the island away
403:

Maybe I'm wrong, but the data doesn't look like it got THAT bad there. They had an update 34 minutes ago.

Still, total destruction of an island in Category 3+ hurricanes has happened before at least 3 times that I know of...
My Ustream live feed is up and running again.

Live video by Ustream
406. DEKRE
401. AussieStorm 6:56 PM EST on February 01, 2011

If you use this link . . .

The wind speeds really don't seem to tally with a force 5 TC
407. xcool
Here's a link to the weather obs for the region. Winds going up all over the Coral Sea region at the bottom of the page.
409. BDAwx
the last wind observation from willis was about 88mph gusting to 115mph. This was about 5 mph greater than the previous observation 5 minutes earlier. If the observation site was just on the fringes of the eyewall at this time (as I suspect) winds could have easily been much higher than that in the eyewall itself.
besides, confused seas created by such winds will do a number on any coastline especially one that looks like a coral atoll rather than a rock poking out of the water. (I have no idea if it is rocky or not, if it is - chances are it will still be there tomorrow, if not, exceptional erosion may be occurring.
Quoting RecordSeason:
403:

Maybe I'm wrong, but the data doesn't look like it got THAT bad there. They had an update 34 minutes ago.

Still, total destruction of an island in Category 3+ hurricanes has happened before at least 3 times that I know of...
But...that data isn't verified. Could be the anemometer was downwind of whatever structure it's mounted on (many observation site anemometers have a "blind spot"). Or, it may be on a pole that was bent over hours ago. Not that I know that any of those happened, but it's possible.

Or, everything is fine, data-wise, and Yasi simply didn't deliver...?
Quoting BDAwx:
the last wind observation from willis was about 88mph gusting to 115mph. This was about 5 mph greater than the previous observation 5 minutes earlier. If the observation site was just on the fringes of the eyewall at this time (as I suspect) winds could have easily been much higher than that in the eyewall itself.
besides, confused seas created by such winds will do a number on any coastline especially one that looks like a coral atoll rather than a rock poking out of the water. (I have no idea if it is rocky or not, if it is - chances are it will still be there tomorrow, if not, exceptional erosion may be occurring.

This is Willis Island(Click for larger image)

Note: the 10foot post with wind instruments on left.
Quoting Xyrus2000:
Here's a link to the weather obs for the region. Winds going up all over the Coral Sea region at the bottom of the page.


Category 5 on their scale corresponds to a strong 4 on the SS scale.

I also think the instruments may be broken.

The satellite presentation strongly suggests the storm is at least a SS category 3, which is still stronger than the winds they reported.


IMO, either they got ridiculously lucky, or all the instruments are broken.
Quoting AussieStorm:

This is Willis Island
add 38 feet of water 135 mph winds not going to be pretty

is that site unmanned aussie automated
Wha choo talkin bout Willis? Willis? Are you there Willis? Hello?

Luckily Surge Heights mostly go round a Small Island and there isnt a large Coast to pile up a surge,so that's always a good thing.

The Coastal Impact from this large Cyclone is going to Impact a wide section of the Coast though unfortunately.






Quoting DEKRE:
401. AussieStorm 6:56 PM EST on February 01, 2011

If you use this link . . .

The wind speeds really don't seem to tally with a force 5 TC


Do they add forward speed to the wind speed for classification?
They just updated again. They're still in the eye.

I wonder where anyone is to still be safe on that thing. My Goodness that must be a nightmare to be there in this storm.

02/10:00am 26.5 33.9 26.5 100 0.0 CALM 0 0 0 0 940.1 - 0.0
Willis stopped recording wind speeds with a 185 kph gust , pressure reading still coming in .

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94299.shtml
Quoting RecordSeason:
They just updated again. They're still in the eye.

I wonder where anyone is to still be safe on that thing. My Goodness that must be a nightmare to be there in this storm.

02/10:00am 26.5 33.9 26.5 100 0.0 CALM 0 0 0 0 940.1 - 0.0
Looking at the symmetry over time in the pressure obs, they are about to be back in the eyewall.
(Barometers are the last instrument to break...so long as we have reports, I'd be inclined to trust the pressure obs)
were are you getting reports this is what iam getting

time wind dir wind spd wind gust tmp dew pt feels like rh fire rain pres
km/h km/h °C °C °C % mm hPa


Wed 10:00 EST
- 0 0 26.5 26.5 30.0 100 1 Low 0.0 940.1
Wed 10:00 EST
- 0 0 26.5 26.5 30.0 100 1 Low - 940.1
Wed 09:50 EST
- 0 0 26.4 26.3 30.0 99 1 Low - 937.6
Wed 09:40 EST
- 0 0 27.1 26.8 32.0 98 1 Low - 938.6
Wed 09:30 EST
- 0 0 27.1 27.0 32.0 99 1 Low 0.0 938.4
Wed 09:30 EST
- 0 0 27.1 27.0 32.0 99 1 Low - 938.4
Wed 09:20 EST
- 0 0 27.6 27.5 34.0 99 1 Low - 937.8
Wed 09:10 EST
- 0 0 27.2 26.9 32.0 98 1 Low - 938.0
Wed 09:00 EST
- 0 0 26.9 26.8 31.0 99 1 Low 62.2 938.0
Wed 09:00 EST
- 0 0 26.9 26.8 31.0 99 1 Low - 938.0
Wed 08:50 EST
- 0 0 26.3 26.3 29.0 100 1 Low - 938.8
Wed 08:42 EST
- 0 0 25.9 25.9 28.0 100 1 Low 61.6 939.0
Wed 08:40 EST
- 0 0 25.9 25.9 28.0 100 1 Low - 940.0
Wed 08:37 EST
- 0 0 25.7 25.7 27.0 100 1 Low 59.6 941.5
Wed 08:10 EST
N 141 185 25.6 25.6 27.0 100 25 VH 31.8 955.1
Quoting Patrap:
Luckily Surge Heights mostly go round a Small Island and there isnt a large Coast to pile up a surge
Correct. Wonder how much Willis Is really got. Likely far from the usual for this classification.

And waves: 50 footers not possible in 5 feet of water. Minimum ~35 feet of water necessary for that. Doubt the island got that washed over.
Willis Island Data Updates on Yasi

Something just doesn't jive. Maybe the anemometer is under water or something.

Maybe those are water velocities instead of wind velocities, I don't know.

The wind numbers from before the "calm" parts seem rediculously inconsistent with the pressure and satellite presentation.
Looks Like the Eye is right there with the Island around the 6o'clock Position right at the Southern extent of the Eye.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Correct. Wonder how much Willis Is really got. Likely far from the usual for this classification.

And waves: 50 footers not possible in 5 feet of water. Minimum ~35 feet of water necessary for that. Doubt the island got that washed over.


Im inclined to agree atmo,..still a Hairy time as they got all that inflow feeder too after the backside to come as well.


Sheesh,..this a bad Mamba Jamba
Quoting Patrap:
Looks Like the Eye is right there with the Island around the 6o'clock Position right at the Southern extent of the Eye.
"Looks" by what image?
Quoting Patrap:


Im inclined to agree atmo,..still a Hairy time as they got all that inflow feeder too after the backside to come as well.


Sheesh,..this a bad Mamba Jamba
The ob site claims to be 8 meters above sea level. Could be that they were high and dry. (except for the rainfall)
Quoting atmoaggie:
The ob site claims to be 8 meters above sea level. Could be that they were high and dry. (except for the rainfall)



Yeah,,that Parallel to da ground rain Hurts.
Quoting Patrap:
TC Yasi WunderMap® ZOOMED
Ah. Yes, at 11:56 satellite plot, they were S-center of eye (asuming everything is mapped perfectly well).

Now, into eyewall. We'll see soon enough if the wind obs are hosed.
TPPS12 PGTW 020022

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI)

B. 01/2332Z

C. 16.3S

D. 149.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 22NM WMG EYE LG SURR W/BF
YIELDS A 6.0 DT. MET AND PT YIELD A 6.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
01/1846Z 15.7S 151.4E TRMM
01/1915Z 15.8S 151.3E SSMS


HATHAWAY
Storm surge of 16feet + 38feet waves + tiny island = what????
Quoting AussieStorm:
Storm surge of 16feet + 38feet waves + tiny island = what????


Equals no more island?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Equals no more island?
or pretty close to it
People in Innisvale are preparing for total wipe-out.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Storm surge of 16feet + 38feet waves + tiny island = what????
Pat's right. Unless that island has a sand bar with a hundred miles long, or more, I think 16 feet of surge would be the top end of possible for the island. Maybe not even that.

The water has somewhere to go (around it), so it does. A long, shallow coastline will obviously have the expected result.
Last radar image from the island, so stated.



I sure would not want to be on this thing in any storm ......



434:

Well, if there's anything left on that island they better be thankful is all I know. T-6.0 to 6.5 is definitely a lot stronger than what those numbers show.

T_kts_mph_kmh_category_atlantic pressure_etc
6.0 115 132 213 Cat 4 948 927
6.5 127 146 235 Cat 4 935 914
The last few satellite frames show that cloud tops have warmed a little, possibly in response to slightly cooler waters or the entrainment of bit of dry air into the southwest quadrant. If so, that would be a good thing, no?
The Window to Evac is available for those seeking to get.

Dont be at the Coast when Yasi Crosses if you dont have to.

The Water is coming.
Its the sea rise that gets a small island,or atoll top.

Im sure no Humans were there for the Cyclone.

Anyone here from Oz though?
Quoting Ossqss:


Do they add forward speed to the wind speed for classification?


"As a general rule of thumb, the hurricane's right
side (relative to the direction it is travelling) is
the most dangerous part of the storm because of
the additive effect of the hurricane wind speed and
speed of the larger atmospheric flow (the steering
winds
). The increased winds on the right side
increase the storm surge. Tornadoes are also more
common here."

NOAA Hurricane Basics

Not sure that answers the question though.

This source says yes:

Link



Q: Does the reported wind speed for a hurricane also include its forward wind speed?

A: A hurricane's sustained winds and wind gusts include the winds from the storm's rotation as well as the forward speed of the storm itself. For typical westward moving tropical systems spinning counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, the forward speed adds to winds on the north side of the storm, while the forward speed subtracts from winds on the south side.

One excellent example of this addition of a storm's rotational and forward speeds is "The Long Island Express," the great hurricane of 1938. The 70 mph forward speed of the storm, the fastest known forward speed ever recorded, produced hurricane wind speeds that exceeded 180 mph in eastern Long Island and New England.

(Answered by Bob Swanson, USA TODAY's assistant weather editor, July 20, 2005)
Quoting Patrap:
The Window to Evac is available for those seeking to get.

Dont be at the Coast when Yasi Crosses if you dont have to.

The Water is coming.

yes
yes it is
and its big
real big
Quoting Patrap:
Its the sea rise that gets a small island,or atoll top.

Im sure no Humans were there for the Cyclone.

Anyone here from Oz though?


I viewed what Charlie did to North Captiva first hand. 400 yard wide pass cut through the Island.
Quoting Ossqss:


I viewed what Charlie did to North Captiva first hand. 400 yard wide pass cut through the Island.
I don't think there anywhere on Captiva that's 24 feet above sea level, is there?

(Maybe in a 2 story?)
443:

That's caused by heating of the cloud tops.

It's 10:46a.m. in their local time, I think. So warming of cloud tops by 5 to 10 degrees is normal.

It is true the storm has had a bit of shear return on the eastern side though, as evidence from several IR tools, so that may be playing a factor in the appearance being slightly more ragged than a few hours ago.
Quoting atmoaggie:
I don't think there anywhere on Captiva that's 24 feet above sea level, is there?

(Maybe in a 2 story?)


No doubt about that, but they had much more in the way of trees and undergrowth to hold things together, as opposed to that tiny island.
Quoting Ossqss:
Last radar image from the island, so stated.



I sure would not want to be on this thing in any storm ......




Yasi knocks out weather radar
Kim Lyell, Wednesday February 2, 2011 - 11:03 EDT
Category five Cyclone Yasi has knocked out the weather bureau's radar system on Willis Island, about 450 kilometres east of Cairns in far north Queensland.

The weather bureau's radar and wind speed measurements on the island failed just before 9am (AEST).

The bureau says the maximum wind speed recorded before the equipment went down was 185 kilometres an hour.

Three weather observers and a technician left the island yesterday.

- ABC

© ABC 2010
Quoting Ossqss:


No doubt about that, but they had much more in the way of trees and undergrowth to hold things together, as opposed to that tiny island.
I don't remember... I didn't look up anything about Captiva, just working off of a one week visit ~25 years ago.
;-)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Three weather observers and a technician left the island yesterday.
good to know.
Quoting Patrap:
Its the sea rise that gets a small island,or atoll top.

Im sure no Humans were there for the Cyclone.

Anyone here from Oz though?

I am sorry to say, there is a permanent staff of 4 on the island.
Here is a story from one. They left yesterday. I wonder what they will return to??????
A pair of beast storms:



Quoting atmoaggie:
I don't remember... I didn't look up anything about Captiva, just working off of a one week visit ~25 years ago.
;-)


Here is a pic from N. Captiva from usgs, to big to post.

http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/charley/images/north_captiva-lg.jpg

SMI/AMSRE-derived Total Precipitable Water


Click for info
More inconsistent data: Windfield/pressure

They continue to report it at 916 and 130kts here, but downgraded it back to 125kts in their official intensity statement. This was published at the exact same time. Doesn't make sense to me.
KARR 020052Z 06028G38KT 1/2SM SN FZFG SCT005 BKN011 OVC019 M06/M07 A2978 RMK AO2 PK WND 05039/0023 SLP093 P0000 T10561072

It's a lovely time just West of Chicago.
Willis Island has stopped reporting.
Quoting RecordSeason:
More inconsistent data: Windfield/pressure

They continue to report it at 916 and 130kts here, but downgraded it back to 125kts in their official intensity statement. This was published at the exact same time. Doesn't make sense to me.


Could it be due to the size of the system? It is huge and perhaps does not play the same way as smaller ones with respect to pressure and anticipated wind speed? The bigger ones would need more time to wind up to catch up with the pressure.
Tornado Dude is out and about in the weather...
not much going on yet but later maybe...
Quoting Ossqss:


I viewed what Charlie did to North Captiva first hand. 400 yard wide pass cut through the Island.


Indeed,Georges,Ivan and K and Rita all cut eddies thru barrier Islands,,one weakness and the water will find it and exploit it like a politician.

Click for info
Quoting AussieStorm:

Click for info
great site there A.S. The article is calling it a category 5 and
""This is the most severe, most catastrophic storm that has ever hit our coast," Ms Bligh told the ABC.

"Frankly, I don't think Australia has ever seen a storm of this size, this intensity in an area as popular as this stretch of our coast.""
Quoting RecordSeason:
More inconsistent data: Windfield/pressure

They continue to report it at 916 and 130kts here, but downgraded it back to 125kts in their official intensity statement. This was published at the exact same time. Doesn't make sense to me.
The rammb product was likely already being generated before the downgraded intensity was put out. The rammb windfield is not an official determination of intensity.
Storm Surge will be the usual culprit as TC Yasi comes inland

Heed the Warnings.


Evacuate if told to do so.

Mr. Guerra here,8 Miles east of NOLA on 29 August 05 will tell ya how he should have.


Quoting AussieStorm:
Willis Island has stopped reporting.


Aussie, it would be of interest to know if that was a dredged island or natural. By virtue of the pic showing the skinny water/sand shallows, around one side, it may have indeed been created or added to. Dunno, but I would think it will be MIA from wave action and direction of such from the imagery and stated wave heights.
Surge goes around little islands. That side with limited reef protection should have monster waves though.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I am sorry to say, there is a permanent staff of 4 on the island.
Here is a story from one. They left yesterday. I wonder what they will return to??????


Not much, I'm afraid
Willis Island will garner good data from the Instruments.


The Impact to come is going to be Catastrophic.




Quoting Floodman:


Not much, I'm afraid

They might not have a post to go back.
Yasi's eye coming into Cairns Radar view


on other news.... Super-fish Thorpedo, Iam Thorpe is coming back for the 2012 Olympics.
IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cape Melville to Sarina are
requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:12am EST on Wednesday the 2nd of February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cape
Melville to Sarina, extending inland to Croydon and Richmond.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the remaining inland parts west to the Northern
Territory border and north of Winton.

At 10:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 5 was estimated to be 445
kilometres east of Cairns and 455 kilometres northeast of Townsville and moving
west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.

SEVERE TC YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN
EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN CAIRNS AND TOWNSVILLE.

THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING
RECENT GENERATIONS.

TC Yasi, CATEGORY 5, will continue to move in a west-southwesterly direction
during the day. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast in the Innisfail area
at about midnight.

Coastal residents within the warning area, and particularly between Cairns and
Ayr are specifically warned of an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SEA LEVEL RISE [i.e. storm
tide] as the cyclone approaches, crosses the coast and moves inland. The sea is
likely to steadily rise up to a level which will be VERY DANGEROUSLY above the
normal tide, with EXTREMELY DAMAGING WAVES, STRONG CURRENTS and FLOODING of
low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be
affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much
as possible, and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the
area if advised to do so by authorities.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr that are currently developing on coastal
islands, are forecast to develop about the coast by late morning and about the
tropical interior overnight.

Between Cape Tribulation and Ingham these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with
gusts in excess of 125km/hr during the afternoon and early evening and VERY
DESTRUCTIVE with gusts up to 300 km/hr between Cairns and Ingham during the
evening as the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast. These VERY DESTRUCTIVE
winds can also occur on the seaward side of hills to the north of the cyclone
and are also forecast to reach the Atherton Tablelands.

Winds are forecast to ease about the east coast during Thursday morning as the
cyclone moves inland.

FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during the afternoon and
then extend inland overnight.
People between Cape Melville and Sarina, extending inland to Croydon and
Richmond should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a
safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

People about the remaining inland parts west to the Northern Territory border
and north of Winton should consider what action they will need to take if the
cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 10:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.4 degrees South 149.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 295 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 922 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm EST Wednesday 02 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
Quoting Patrap:
Willis Island will garner good data from the Instruments.


The Impact to come is going to be Catastrophic.





I'm sorry to say but Willis Island has stopped sending weather Ob's.

Wed 10:00 EST
- 0 0 79.7 79.7 86.0 100 1 Low 0.0 940.1
Wed 10:00 EST
- 0 0 79.7 79.7 86.0 100 1 Low - 940.1
Wed 09:50 EST
- 0 0 79.5 79.3 86.0 99 1 Low - 937.6
Wed 09:40 EST
- 0 0 80.8 80.2 89.6 98 1 Low - 938.6

THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING
RECENT GENERATIONS.


TC Yasi, CATEGORY 5, will continue to move in a west-southwesterly direction
during the day. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast in the Innisfail area
at about midnight.
It looks like they've removed the data except the pressure readings from Willis.

The wind data has probably been considered contaminated or useless, since the instruments broke.
Yasi is very much like the Large Catastrophic Storms..we've seen the last 5-7 years in the Atlantic.

Impact and size matter inversely.

The Wider the Overall Core is,,and how it hits the Coast is everything as to the overall impact.


Cyclone Force Winds of 2-4 Cat will spread well inland and cause damage along the Cores path.
Quoting AussieStorm:

They might not have a post to go back.
Yasi's eye coming into Cairns Radar view


on other news.... Super-fish Thorpedo, Iam Thorpe is coming back for the 2012 Olympics.
the short range view building in a loop (this image will be continuously updated for the next 23 hours)

Evening all.

Wow. I sure wouldn't want to be the one sitting under THAT eyewall anytime now....

On the storm surge and small islands, when Andrew passed through the Bahamas, storm surge of up to 25 feet was observed on the island of Eleuthera, with complete washover in several places during the height of the storm. The difference, IMO, is that Eleuthera is at the eastern edge of the Great Bahama Bank there, which in some ways might act like a coastline in terms of surge. (on the western side of Eleuthera water is often in the range of 6 - 20 feet deep....)
Those outer feeders are affecting the Coast and conditions will deteriorate throughout the Warned area.

Rush ya completions and evacuations to completion and get away from the coast.

The Water is coming.


We hope and wish ya Countrymen Godspeed Aussiestorm.





I thought it might have topped out since they lowered it by 5kts, and the eye wall got ragged earlier, but now the last two frames shows it wrapping in yellows again.


I also see that they are still reporting Gusts of 185mph, which is about as strong as Andrew's maximum gusts, and pressure 922, though the sustained is still lagging behind what you'd expect for the pressure.

I guess I'm saying the peak gust is around what you would normally expect for a 160mph 1min sustained hurricane...
Down to 125 knots (1 min sustained)

Strong as Julia at peak.

A good view of Yasi from Weatherzone
Link
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all.

Wow. I sure wouldn't want to be the one sitting under THAT eyewall anytime now....

On the storm surge and small islands, when Andrew passed through the Bahamas, storm surge of up to 25 feet was observed on the island of Eleuthera, with complete washover in several placed during the height of the storm. The difference, IMO, is that Eleuthera is at the eastern edge of the Great Bahama Bank there, which in some ways might act like a coastline in terms of surge. (on the western side of Eleuthera water is often in the range of 6 - 20 feet deep....)
Exactly why I brought up a sand bar a hundred miles long, and the like. It would act somewhat like a coastline, impeding water flow.
data from willis island has ceased

It seems the worst of these storms always arrive in the middle of the night....

The cyclone is expected to cross the coast in the Innisfail area
at about midnight.


I wonder how far / long into the storm the Cairns radar will be able to broadcast data...
I didn't check the 18 Z NAM earlier. That's snow cover for I-10 from San Antonio to Mobile. (Even includes NOLA-proper, not just northshore.)

It starts with a band from NOLA to Mobile Thursday morning. In the Texas direction the next day.