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Grading NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:33 PM GMT on June 06, 2007

The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) is a text-only product that rates the potential of disturbed areas of weather to turn into tropical depressions or tropical storms. The outlooks are issued four times daily, at 5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm EDT. I've found them to be an excellent guide to what to watch out for. But how accurate are these outlooks? To find out, Jamie Rhome and Dan Brown, who are two of the hurricane specialists that write the Tropical Weather Outlook, verified the accuracy of all the outlooks issued in 2005 and 2006. They used a three-tiered classification of threat based on the following language appearing in the TWO:

High: "A tropical depression could form tonight or the next day."

Medium: "Some slow development is possible."

Low: "Tropical storm formation is not expected."


These forecasts were then graded by looking at the "best track" database of Atlantic hurricanes and seeing if a tropical depression formed within 48 hours of each TWO issued. The results, shown below, reveal that for the Atlantic in the years 2005 and 2006:

-When the TWO said, "A tropical depression could form tonight of the next day," a depression formed within 48 hours 53% of the time.

-When the TWO said, "Some slow development is possible," a tropical depression formed within 48 hours about 20% of the time.

-When the TWO said, "Tropical storm formation is not expected," a tropical depression formed within 48 hours only 3% of the time.




Figure 1. Verification of the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlooks issued in 2005 and 2006. Image credit: Jamie Rhome and Dan Brown, National Hurricane Center.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

GFS is also developing a tropical system in the west Caribbean and bringing it offshore western LA by 180 hours. I guess the thinking between the 2 models is that the big upper low will push far enough west and weaken allowing the disturbed area in the Caribbean to have a chance to sit under relaxed shear. Hard to say if any t-storm activity will be left when the ULL weakens.
So you're saying that this sw carribean system will be kinda like Cindy?
woohoo....what cindy?....cindy hit me
Not me saying, the models are saying. But its not too farfetched. Cindy developed more from an African wave. I chased Cindy and it was a tough little storm. I thought the top was gonna blow off my jeep!!!
I remember too that the models were horrible with Cindy when it was near the Yucatan. Almost all of the reliable ones were taking it near Galveston. Water vapor imagery clearly showed the flow was almost right into SE LA. Those crazy models...
dont know if it will form after that long though...dr m will be back from vacation and that cuts the probability in half by itself.
2007. Patrap
Cindy Landfall radar loop Link
2009. Patrap
Cindy Track....Link
The quikscat descending pass looks like it will miss the area in the SW Caribbean
cindi kinda looks like a katrina warning....almost made land fall at the same place.
kman who is in charge of the quickstat...we should write a letter!!
Hey,

They've got Savannah GA on It Could Happen Tomorrow on TWC . . .
Bama

Just the luck of the draw !. Sometimes you see the area you are interested in then sometimes you don't. Lets hope it doesn't fail . There are no current plans to replace this sat which has now been in service well beyond its designed life span. If a decision was taken today to replace it apparently it would take 4 yrs to do so !!
yea kman...i read that somewhere. tthey said something about the accuracy of forecast droping like 20% too. Its real sad that weather doesnt get the funding it deserves.
Stormw

I agree. That is what I have been saying.
I was hoping for a QS pass to provide some surface data but it does not look like we will see that area S of Jamaica tonight
anybody know how much a cat 1 evac cost?
Bama

You would have thought that after Ivan, Wilma and Katrina the funds needed to provide critical forecasting tools would have been provided without prompting but it takes a disaster before action is taken. If Quikscat fails without a replacement there will be big problems every hurricane season. Knowing where a low center is is critical to initialising the model runs
Hi storm

All is quiet in the Caribbean tonight. I do not expect there will be anything to talk about here for at least another 12 to 24 hrs which is what the ULL will need to exit stage left LOL
just the mean of say a 50 mile area. seems like it would be well worth the funding
Hi all,,, I was just wandering could all of these strong waves comin off africa so early in the season mean a active season ahead? any input? thanks
The NHC is still debating on whether Cindy was a hurricane or a 70mph tropical storm at landfall.
how bout anybody know how much the quikstat cost to replace?
2028. RL3AO
Is quikscat starting to lose it?
Short but interesting article on the importance of the QS sat to model initialising

Link
its just old RL
2031. RL3AO
Yeah. I think Dr. M did a blog on it last year.
Quikscat was designed for a 5 yr life span but has been in operation for 7. $400 million to replace !!

Link
2034. FLBoy
What about the rainfall over the West African areas Storm?
A lot of speculation there....what are your thoughts?
93L doesn't seem to have the spin it did a few hours ago...lookin' more like a fish!
It seems as if the Caribbean blob will prevail, and the 93 low invest will lose.
thanks storm w.. i was noticing the NAM has some sort of system south of cuba out 84 hrs? Link
93L is about to see davie jones locker....arggggggh!
as for the models i always try to wait for them to show something for 3 or 4 consecutive runs before I take it too serious. Seems like alot of times they just get a crazy idea and spit it out there.
93L will be history tomorrow. Very little left of it now


2043. FLBoy
Yes, Storm. Those are and have been my thoughts as well. These waves are what they are because of more African rainfall rates than we have seen for a few years.
You were right on Storm !
Even in Cape Verde season it takes almost near perfect conditions for a wave to make it to the Caribbean or the E Coast of the US when it develops a clearly defined circulation that far east.
FLBoy, would you say that means more Verde storms earlier?
be patient -it's june. Not cape verde season.

Meanwhile, the GFS (best model IMO) is predicting a tropical entity in the caribbean in three days, so we'll just have to see...


Game update:

Cavs 19 Spurs 37 2ND
I'm rooting for the Cavs BTW.
2049. FLBoy
FLBoy, would you say that means more Verde storms earlier?
That would be the general consensus Cowboy.
poor cavs...they look lost tonight.

as for earlier cape verde storms i wouldnt think so. 3 things keep them from forming right now if im right

1--they are froming from the itcz which is still too far south for the most part.
2-- wind shear is more aggressive this time of year
3-- sst's are cool.

all three of these come together in late july normally and more intense waves wouldnt change that.

this is just my thinking. Im sure im wrong though
Bamatracker: Remember Bertha in 1996? One of the earliest Cape Verde storms ever recorded, and it reached Category 3 strength, albeit briefly. In June, I don't expect anything like 93L again, but in early July, I'd expect to see some sort of tropical storm develop relatively far east like Bertha or Dennis did. How strong that'll be, I don't know.
Have a few things to do but will check back before calling it a day
If more than one model picks up on it in the next few days, believe a storm may form. Till then, just use your own analysis.
BTW, a question for everyone: When do you think we will see the next storm of the season?

I'm guessing around June 20th to June 30th, with the 25th on up being the most likely time.
Good night, StormW.
I'm guessing in 84 hours, lolskates

And BTW, Dennis formed west of the Windward Islands, not in the Atlantic...
korithe

Well im not saying it wont or can't happen. (heck, i didnt expect to have two storms already this season) What I am saying is that probability is against a definitive yes answer that we will see an early cape verde storm.

Of course it could happen...we already had a tropical storm (barry) that possibly wasnt a true tropical system.
Looking at that image kman posted, I'd say that 93L looks about the same as it did when I was here a few hours ago. I need to look at a loop to see if it's losing spin, though.

I still say a wave this strong can potentially hold on to its identity long enough to limp across the central atlantic. It is also the only wave far enough north so far to be in a position to do damage. I'll surely be getting up to take a look at it before I head to work in the morning. I'm interested to see if the southward bobble it seems to have been taking will be enough to allow it to fight off the dry air and dust it has been dealing with all day today.

That area of the ATL should be hitting diurnal max time in 3 -4 hours, right?
Baha, it doesn't look as organized; but, if I'm seeing this right, infrared does seem to have some low level spin, or spin not directly associated to the little remaining convection. (prolly missed this one, too...lol) But, I'm with you, gonna still take a peak in the a.m.


L8R, BAMA, JP...have a good one!
well im out for the night....you all have fun!!
Baha in about 4-5 hours it will be sunrise for 93L. Looks like it made a northward jog lately though. When it hits 40w it will probably recurve.
Back to Coriolis for a second.

I found this at wikipedia.com.

"Coriolis effect

Infrared image of Cyclone Monica near peak intensity, showing clockwise rotation due to the Coriolis effect.The Earth's rotation imparts an acceleration known as the Coriolis Effect, Coriolis Acceleration, or colloquially, Coriolis Force. This acceleration causes cyclonic systems to turn towards the poles in the absence of strong steering currents.[35] The poleward portion of a tropical cyclone contains easterly winds, and the Coriolis effect pulls them slightly more poleward. The westerly winds on the equatorward portion of the cyclone pull slightly towards the equator, but, because the Coriolis effect weakens toward the equator, the net drag on the cyclone is poleward. Thus, tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere usually turn north (before being blown east), and tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere usually turn south (before being blown east) when no other effects counteract the Coriolis effect.

The Coriolis effect also initiates cyclonic rotation . . ."

^ Baum, Steven K. (January 20, 1997). The Glossary: Cn-Cz.. Glossary of Oceanography and the Related Geosciences with References. Texas A&M University. Retrieved on 2006-11-29.

So whoever it was who said that the Coriolis effect might cause 93L to move northward was not actually wrong, according to this information.
2068. FLBoy
My thinking is that Cowboy probably smells something near the Yucatan. That's what I think.
It looks like a fish...is a fish storm...and smells like...











...saharan dust.


Cavaliers 33 Spurs 58 Halftime
although the bam medium and deep show it going south later. maybe they are seeing some ridging filling in.
...lol, FLBoy, yeah, I think something's been smelling in the Caribbean since yesterday morning. The "big fellow" may just be right.

93L shook us up a bit, off guard to see an invest that early way out there. The Caribbean and the GOM these past few days have looked better for potential -- lower shear and SST's.

May have to make some calls to see if there's been any local sightings of the big fellow. You know a report a week or so ago was from the Keys...and guess what, we had Barry, despite most of the logic.
What 93L Contributes is, a little insight to the abnormally warm sst's observed off the African Coast. This bothers me a bit because, when conditions are ripe in the EATL and CATL, there's nothing to stop it. Good thing is the weakness in the CATL is still there, could be alot of recurving storms this year! Bermuda/Azors high starts anchoring into place at the end of this month so we'll see what happens with that. The fly in the ointment is the dust but, that is observed on a case by case basis. Quiet now, just the way we like it right, nahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!
It looks almost as if 93L's low level clouds are keeping their signature but racing ahead of the deeper convection (although still limited). That appears to be what I'm seeing. Is that possible? lol
Very Possible KY, it's called destructive shear! Storm tops are being pushed off the circulation, happens all the time!
eyestoplogo1left.jpg

...the "smell factor" could be a good, new tool in casting this year. Never know when these things are going to be around??? Conditions appear to be getting more favorable, so it's likely we'll get a sightings report soon!

KYhomeboy, that's kind of what I saw, too with 93L. The Navy has NOT taken it down yet and I know it's not likely going to hold on; but, it was sneaky to begin with...may still be sneaking around way out there, trying to find the Caribbean. lol, we'll see!
Thanks moonlight and cane. I wasn't sure if it was shear or not cause I just found it strange that the deeper convection actually maintained its circular shape. I assumed the convection affected by shear would take on an angular or flattened shape instead. Now I know! thanks.
R.i.P 93L
2078. FLBoy
Cowboy....is this what you mean?

The Skunk Ape is said to be approximately 7 feet tall with red hair, similar in appearance to an orangutan or gorilla, and to reside in or around the Florida Everglades.[2]

2079. RL3AO
Whens the last time we hit 2000 comments?
I remember last year when we had Chris brewing we did. I think we reached over 60 pages.
...yeah, FLBoy, think maybe so. When John Anderson sang "seminole wind"...I think he was actually referring to the unusual smell sometimes generated there during hurricane season!
i just wanted to know your opinions on the Carribean outlook
2083. FLBoy
I smell it Cowboy.....LMAO!!
Moonlight, where do you live in Ms.???
Chris and Ernesto both were total dissapointments

so let's talk about the CARIBBEAN LOW now
What's there to talk about? It probably won't develop, but as usual, I won't take my eyes off anything that catches my eye. I'm no weatherman, so I could watch the wrong things, but oh well, I'll learn.
There's growing evidence that smell is definitely associated to landfalling storms. Nearly every storm has this unique smell, and people that have been affected say it is very unique and unusal.

Often, there is a siting report in the area before landfall. There's some question as to how this smell is meteorlogically associated with these things (if they do indeed exist) and how they could cause storms to come ashore. There is a small group of followers with some historical experience who subscribe to the theory.

Old lore goes years back to "Big Foot Wallace" out in Texas who claimed the species actually has this inate ability to affect the weather. He claimed they had been seen and were responsible for storms landfalling on the Texas coast. He was just never able to prove it. Locals teased and made fun of Wallace and most thought his claims were a hoax; but he maintained his beliefs until his death years later.

This is a pic taken of Wallace (on the right) telling his story to a local newsman.

tree0835bm.jpg
say bye bye to the high wind shear in tell winter time

look at this there is vary low wind shear out there this about evere where you look wind shear has drop like a rock in the past few days

lol
I'm in central Ms.
Yeah, SthrnLady, Sandcrab is a good one on here! Welcome to the blog, good to see more Magnolia State folks here, especially since Katrina. Wish more had been here sooner, would've helped many.
I live in Hattiesburg :)
lol, just had to throw it out.
Really?? I was beginning to think I was the only Ms. person besides Sandcrab!!!
Post a pic of the Caribbean system.

SHEAR is dropping so we should see development.
Hitting the hay here!! Garden duty tomorrow. Good to meet ya'll!!! Sand is one of my 'buds'...
Uh-huh...we are soon gonna have low shear dominate most of the carribean...

Welcome Chantal!!!

So far, this is turning out to become more and more like the '04 and '05 season. Dun dun dun dun... watch out Florida.
03 = Watch out, Carolinas
04 = Watch out, Florida
05 = Watch out, whole gulf coast
06 = Watch out, fishies...
2099. FLBoy
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

NOW IS
WHERE THE DIFFERENCES IN OPINION SHOW THEIR UGLY HEADS. THE GFS IS
CONTINUING ITS TREND OF SHOWING MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO
EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ALLOWING THE TROUGH
AXIS TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST. THE PAST FEW RUNS HAVE EVEN INDICATED A CUT
OFF LOW FORMING OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AND DRIFTING TO THE
GEORGIA COAST BY THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
OVER S FLA WITH W TO NW FLOW DEVELOPING WITH FORECAST PWAT`S AT
AROUND 1.75 WHICH IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH FOR MID JUNE BUT STILL
RESPECTABLE. THIS WILL TEND TO HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WITH SOME POSSIBLY STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY FRIDAY BUT STILL
REMAINS IN THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH HEIGHT RISES DO
OCCUR SO NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE. THE NAM NOW PAINTS A QUITE DIFFERENT
PICTURE. IT ALSO DEVELOPS THE CUT OFF LOW AND MOVES IT INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULFMEX WITH EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOWERING OF 50H BUT
ALSO DEVELOPS A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CENT CARIBBEAN WHICH WOULD
PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD S FLA. THIS DOES NOT SEEM VERY
PLIABLE AND HAVE OPTED TO IGNORE THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW.
On the latest Infrared satellite loop new convection is flaring up. In my opinion if this ULL collapses and convection persists there's a reasonable chance for development in the caribbean over the next few days.
satellite radar > nhc...
Does anyone have any ideas on what the steering currents will be like come August and September?
2103. FLBoy
We're working 12 hour forecasts at best here and you ask for three months?
Hey I didn't ask for certainty, I asked if anyone had any ideas. There has to be some indicators in the atmosphere now that give some insight to the future.
2105. FLBoy
Farther than 36 hours out....take your best guess!
Has anyone seen the latest flare up of convection in the caribbean, it seems to be more organized in my opinion.
Why not POST the image of the caribbean flare-up, if you're that excited!
2108. FLBoy
I see no flare....anywhere.
I thought this is a blog for tropical weather discussion not personal insults aroughleaque. Second of all there's no tone of voice in my writting so try not to assume.
Flboy go to tropical weather homepage on this website and go to carribean.W/ Atlantic Inrared loop.
2111. FLBoy
Been there cirrus....no flare anywhere.
There might be some diffluence regarding the ULL....that's about it.
2112. FLBoy
No low is seen on the surface analysis:


not yet...Nice looking wave though...
Do you happen to now what the ULL is forecast to do over the next few days? Second of all I've obseved new thunderstorm activity (convection-vertical movenment of warm moist air).
later
Flare-up evident.
Looks like it's just you and a couple dipsticks here right now Ran...I mean FlBoy.

Did I miss anything worthwhile in the last 7 or 8 pages, I had some family in town and was entertaining?

Did any weather get discussed or just trolls and NHC copy/pastes?
2118. FLBoy
Anything I have that might be of interest is way too advanced for this audience.
FT

^^^This I'm not at all surprised by.
I just found out from the nhc that it is tropical wave strength right now with winds of about 11 knots.

Meaning the Caribbean disturbance, not 93L.
And oh my, the Carr. Blob is dead too.

Carri Link


lol, bad linkage seminoles

and no, it's not dead.
tropical wave strength, huh?
Sent that right out to ya over the email did they?


Looks pretty dead to me.

2124. flynns
Anyone still up? Boredom has set in. I've hit the model runs for tonight, and it looks quiet for the medium to long term. :\
All I see is a TUTT and some random convection set off by this upper level feature.

Link

Why do think it's alive, league?
flynns-Barely still up...LOL

I'm gonna agree w/ ya on the all's quiet.
2127. FLBoy
A couple days and things get more interesting.....
Nothing really interesting...probably not until July that is.

I wouldn't be suprised to have Chantal to form in June...but somewhere in the carribean sound reasonable to me. Maybe after shear lessens there in a few days...but if anything a small tropical storm. Otherwise Chantal may have to wait for July if it can't get its act together soon in the carribean.
G'night, I was just stopping in real quick before hitting the sack.
Yes..me too. Good Night everybody...tomorrow (LOL..or today) wel will know if 93L is really a goner and what's happening down there in the carribean.
2131. FLBoy
CLIMATE...
THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...ON JUNE 10 2005 TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE PASSED NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WELL WEST OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS. EFFECTS IN THE KEYS WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL...BUT
RAINBANDS DID PRODUCE SEVERAL SQUALLS WITH A FEW REPORTS OF MINOR
WIND DAMAGE. AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...2.19 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL ON THE 10TH AND THE PEAK WIND GUST WAS 47 MPH.
Yes, tropical wave strength. The Saffir-Simpson-scale goes like this:

8mph - 19mph = Tropical Wave strength

20mph - 24mph = Tropical Low strength

25mph - 39mph = Tropical Depression strength

40mph - 73mph = Tropical Storm strenth

74mph+ = hurricane

WAAAAAAAAAKEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE UPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP
Hope the DR. puts up a new post today.
It was the SW Carib. now it is the NW Carib. Seems like a blob. Good morning everyone.
aroughleague-Did you sleep last night?????
good morning all
The sky is quite dark to the S of us and it looks like there is a new flare up in the NW Caribbean to watch. Pressures are not particularly low ( 1012.9 ) and winds are calm here. Lets see what happens throughout the day

Surface pressures are high for now

It is persistant. Three days now moving WNW NW slowly.
2141. IKE
Posted By: seminolesfan at 12:45 AM CDT on June 11, 2007.
And oh my, the Carr. Blob is dead too.


I don't think so.
early vis shot

2143. Patrap
GOES WV Loop of Tropical Basin
Link
2144. IKE
This from the Tallahassee,Fl. extended...

"Long term...the GFS is now trying to make things interesting over
the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend...as it gradually spins down a surface
low into the central Gulf from the old upper low which is now near
the Yucatan Channel. Will be monitoring the other global models for
any similar indications...but for now...the old 12 UTC Euro run is
still negative."
2145. IKE
That ULL does appear to be undergoing some changes.
2146. IKE
From Key West extended...

"The third regime will begin around Friday...and will be characterized
by episodes of weak large-scale ascent east of developing cyclonic
flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Lower-tropospheric flow will likely
become southerly with further increases in low-level moisture. Rain
chances have been increased to slightly above climatology...and sky
cover may be higher and more variable as well from Friday-Sunday."
The ULL almost seems to be moving more W to WNW now but at barely a crawl. In the WV loop you can see the moisture filling in to its S which would not happen if it was still moving WSW
2148. IKE
I guess 93L is about history...

"Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on June 11, 2007

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

$$
Forecaster Blake"

Hi Ike

No surprise there.
Off to work but will check in later
Have a good day all
2151. IKE
Not really and good morning.
2152. Patrap
93 L ,no convection this am...Link
I think it's pretty dead to me... Image 1hr ago.

Image
2154. nash28
Good morning all. 93L is history. Carribean looks to be brewing this morning. All falls in line for what to expect this time of year. Something tells me that come late July/early August, we may have a conveyor belt of storms coming off of the coast of Africa.
Greetings, All...

Am a bit surprised to se how long it's been since Dr. Masters has done an update. Dos anyone know if he's away, or just isn't there that much on which to comment so early in the season?

Would be happy if it's the latter...as a Virgin Islander, I don't share your excitement about things brewing or perking up in the Caribbean...
SAL has really spread south in the East Atl

Saharan Air Layer

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal.html
2157. nash28
Dr. Masters is on vacation with his family.
that blob in the Carribean is going to be something to watch. That is near the spot where Barry formed.
Thanks, nash...
2160. nash28
Yeah... The Carribean blob could be our next invest.
2161. IKE
Posted By: chessrascal at 7:29 AM CDT on June 11, 2007.
that blob in the Carribean is going to be something to watch. That is near the spot where Barry formed.


You're right...it is...

The GFS takes it into the central GOM by this weekend.
Chart are showing a 1011 Low in the North Central GOM, I don't see it.

This little bit coming of the Yucatan Pennisula looks interesting on Satelite loop.

GOM

Loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
2163. IKE
Latest GFS....

Link
2164. IKE
Posted By: Fl30258713 at 7:35 AM CDT on June 11, 2007.
Chart are showing a 1011 Low in the North Central GOM, I don't see it.


Maybe it's a heat low...like they get in the desert SW. Temps have been near 100 for the last 3-4 days here in the inland Florida panhandle.
Looks like that GFS model will end the drought problem around Florida south of Georgia and South Georgia
I'm in Pensacola, it did seem a bit warm yesterday.
2167. IKE
I'm in Defuniak Springs. It's been around 100 each afternoon since about Friday.
None of the bouy's in the area reflect low pressure
Posted By: Fl30258713 at 12:25 PM GMT on June 11, 2007.
SAL has really spread south in the East Atl


Actually, if ya look at the scale/legend at the bottom of yer pic; the yellow represents the weakest the SAL can be while still being analyzed on that map.

So actually, the SAL is diluted across the entire E. Atl. Meaning it's not nearly as much of an inhibiting factor as in 06.
Sorry...where are my manners?



Morning Everyone!!!
seminolesfan, true, but it is considerably more SAL than last week.

Everything coming off Africa now has to punch trough that dry air. 93L didn't have to.
FL302-I'm not trying to be argumentative...sorry if I came off as preachy. :(

Just trying to let ya know that dust is just a real light layer, unlike last yrs thick blanket.
ok, it is thick enough to effect SST's
2175. emagirl
good morning everyone...well i see i missed alot this weekend...it seems it might be a busy week..
I hadn't thought about in a while, are there still a bunch of folks that come in here with dial up connection, where images end up taking for ever too load?
The remarkable fact, and the generator of so much met interest in 93L was the intensity and presence of dual low pressure centers, identifiable by ground stations, before it even left the coast of Africa. The winds flowing into these low pressure areas pulled additional dust from the upper continent into and behind the wave that was tagged as invest 93L. It therefore stands to reason that this dust will follow the wave as it moves into the East Atl.

In the EUMETSAT pic you posted you can see the intensity of dry air/dust is more intense near 93L and towards the next wave leaving the coast now. After the wave still over the continental center, a marked difference is noted in the dry air presence.

I'm sorry to disagree w/ your opinion, but IMHO the dust will continue to not be at the forefront of inhibiting factors for CV storms.
It will interesting to watch too see if it follows that wave.

New QS pass. No surface low in the NW Caribbean at this time but there are some very strong winds
good morning to all.

the western caribbean is really unsettled at the moment. the ULL although showing signs OF WEAKENING IS STILL ENHANCING THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE REGION. THE AREA WILLHAVE DIFFICULTY IN ORGANISATION because of high wind shear.
2181. emagirl
so any guesses on when the next storm may form??
2182. IKE
NEW BLOG!
2183. Patrap
Meteosat-8 Split window with SAL...Link
2184. HCW
Latest GFS . Still looks good for a TS this week :)

Link