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Gordon is trouble no more; Helene and 96L still out there

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:54 PM GMT on September 22, 2006

The winds and rain of former Hurricane Gordon have subsided over Ireland today, and golf's famed Ryder Cup is proceeding without weather disruptions. High winds due to the remnants of Gordon injured three people at the Ryder Cup's K Club golf course yesterday, where the final practice round was being held. A tree on the main avenue of The K Club was blown over, injuring a woman, and two men were injured when a temporary wall blew down at a bus terminal that ferried fans to distant parking lots. Radar imagery from the Irish Meteorological Service shows just a few scattered showers lingering over Ireland today. The counterclockwise circulation around the remains of Gordon helped pump hot air from Spain northward into the eastern British Islands. A record high temperature for September 21 was set with 28.4C (83.1F) in Bedford yesterday.


Figure 1. Hurricane Gordon on its way toward Ireland to play havoc with practice rounds of golf's famed Ryder Cup. Photo taken at 18:15 GMT, Sept. 17, 2006, from the Space Shuttle Atlantis. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon lashes Spain and Portugal
The remains of Gordon brought hurricane force wind gusts and heavy rain to Spain and Portugal yesterday. In the Spanish province of Galicia, four people were injured and one hundred thousand homes lost power. In Portugal, local media described chaotic scenes due to flooding from heavy rain and winds that damaged roofs and uprooted trees. Traffic was severely affected. Meteored, a Spanish weather forum, reported some impressive winds gusts:

Castro Vicaludo-Oia (Pontevedra): 168 km/h (104 mph)
Fisterra (A. Corua): 165 km/h (103 mph) (INM)
Cabo Viln (A. Corura): 152 km/h (94 mph) (INM)
Ferrol (A. Corua): 119 km/h (74 mph) (INM)
Alvedro (A. Corua): 111km/h (69 mph)
Ancares (Lugo): 101 km/h (63 mph)
Oiz (Bizkaia): 109 km/h (68 mph)

INM is the Spanish government's weather service. I thank Luiz Fernando Nachtigall, Chief Meteorologist for Brazil's MetSul Meteorologia Weather Center, for providing this information. His site's weather blog has an impressive Youtube video of the damage in Spain.

Invest 96L
Shower activity has increased today in association with a tropical wave featuring a broad surface circulation near 13N 39W, about 950 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave was designated as "Invest 96L" by the Hurricane Center Wednesday. The storm is under 10 knots of vertical wind shear and is over warm ocean waters of about 28C, and some slow development is possible over the next few days as it moves northwest over the open Atlantic. Both the GFS and GFDL predict that 96L will follow a break left by Hurricane Helene in the Bermuda High and recurve harmlessly out to sea early next week. The other models think that the break in the Bermuda High will close up and a high pressure ridge will build in, forcing 96L more to the west-northwest. In this latter scenario, a long range threat to Bermuda is possible, or perhaps even the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the computer models intensify 96L into a hurricane, though.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for Invest 96L.

Naming scheme for "Invest" storms
The tropical wave naming scheme goes like this: If the National Hurricane Center deems a tropical disturbance worthy of running their forecast track models on, the disturbance is given a number 90-99. A letter is affixed to the end denoting the ocean basin--"L" for the Atlantic or "E" for the Eastern Pacific. "A" is not used for the Atlantic, since that letter is reserved for cyclones in the Arabian Sea. The Navy uses the same naming scheme on their web site with zoomed-in satellite imagery of all the official "Invest" disturbances and all the regular named tropical cyclones:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Click on "96L.INVEST" at upper left to see a full suite of conventional and microwave satellite imagery of the 96L invest area.

When NHC issues track forecasts for an "Invest", wunderground.com plots up the forecasts, and I make them available on my blog. These plots will always be labeled "Tropical Disturbance Invest". We need to fix the labels on these plots to say "96L" and make them available on the main tropical web page along with the latest satellite image of the disturbance. These improvements are on our to-do list.

Hurricane Helene headed out to sea
Hurricane Helene is headed northeast out to sea. Helene is expected to gradually weaken and morph into a powerful extratropical storm with hurricane force winds over the next few days, and pass between Iceland and the British Islands early next week. Helene's winds have blown long enough and strong enough over a vast area of ocean to cause large swells up to six feet high that have arrived along the East Coast of the U.S., prompting the issuance of rip current advisories from Florida to Cape Cod. Bermuda is also seeing some impressive waves along its shores.

I'll have an update Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
Remnants of Gordan.
Remnants of Gordan.
Yesterday the remnants of Gordan passed the SW tip of England, The photographs dont capture the incredible noise created by the wind, gusting at 70-80mph. The combination of westerly swell, Southerly gale, combined with tidal currents moving south, produced some crazy conditions.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

StormW out in the morning via Klosterman and in the backway afterwork, only way to travel out here:)
blah AC guy here off to see how much this is gonna cost me, see everyone later:)
1005. HCW
Now zoomed in on the little rock twisters. reload every 5 mins for updates. Stay safe everybody

Link
1006. Patrap
..sipping tea..and enjoying the Morning...Hello!
1008. i12BNEi
PalmHarbor/StormW
You guys are in my area Crystal Beach.Good to know a few locals on here.
1009. Patrap
..96L out to lunch..out to sea...like the rest..Azores sunset maker..again
Haaaaaaa, new Head On commercial isn't nearly as repulsive as the original.
1012. Patrap
..wake me up.When September ends....again..
1013. i12BNEi
Yeh,I love it.This whole area Dunedin,Tarpon,Palm Harbor..Beautiful.Sits a little too low,I'm at 7ft.
1015. Patrap
..96L..a non-player..out to lunch..out to sea...again...
Morning all! Looks like we'll have to keep an eye on the surface low and wave entering the carribian this weekend. ULL just above it could hinder significant development though as it is moving SW.
1017. HCW
Live streaming coverage out of Little Rock. Ya'll have a nice day !

HARDCOREWEATHER.COM


Link
1018. IKE
Tropical Atlantic is close to being over along the northern GOM. Looking at a satellite loop...it's amazingly clear in the gulf and Caribbean.

One cold front is coming thru the gulf states by Monday. Another stronger one by the end of next week.

Incredible stat...not one hurricane in the GOM ALL season. You deserve a break today.
1020. HCW
StormW do you have Tom Berg's permission to post all of those model runs ? I see one copyright violation already cause it doesn't say that it came from global tracks at hurricanealley.net
1021. Patrap
.if ya just post the link..youll save us some bandwidth..and less loading time..Thanx
PalmHarbor/StormW
You guys are in my area Crystal Beach.Good to know a few locals on here.


Hehe lots of neighbors close:)
1024. Patrap
..96L..not a threat to anything..lets move on..LOL
1025. Patrap
.CYCLONEBUSTER..that is a irresponsible post and is DISREGARDED..as such...get a grip man...
1026. Patrap
..there is no threst from the GOM..none..zip..nada...
1027. jeffB
Thanks to Skyepony for the CloudSat link! It looks like the 9/23/2006 06:13 pass picked up some of last night's big outbreak on Segment 28. Here's a direct link. (I'm not going to inline the image -- it's wide enough to trash the formatting for the rest of the blog...)
Latest WindScatt just caught the back side of the wave. Pretty decent winds accompanied with it.
1029. Patrap
..thanks jeff8..
ike not so fast my furry little friend we still have about 6 weeks before we can breathe a sigh of relief...after this front comes through next weekend the jet strem will march its way back up in canada.....StormTop
1032. i12BNEi
I wouldn't say the GOM is done for the season.I actually "think" there is alot of potential for it to be better (More storms) than the Atlantic was.
Also, a major hurricane may form along this warm fetch of tropical moisture and sadly New Orleans is in the path again.If you look on the imagery you can see the storm is about to form just North of the Yucatan


First of all the area just north of the Yucatan is an upper level low. IF it were to form into a warm core tropical low, it would take several days. At the rate it is moving it would be onshore by then. Secondly, how can you predict a major hurricane hitting anywhere at this point?
Missed the ciculation center though!
1035. Patrap
..no immediate threat noted..there is a secondary peak every season..from the GOM..and western Carribean.In October...
1036. IKE
I said "close" to being over along the northern GOM.
1037. Patrap
..listen Cyclone..ya wanna see truth..check out my blog..theres some truth..You a nut..and being in New orleans..I take offense to scaring the Public here in any way..Esp with a large crowd in town for the MNF game..you a crackpot...
Posted By: STORMTOP at 1:53 PM GMT on September 23, 2006.

ike not so fast my furry little friend


Every once in a while ST says something funny.
1039. IKE
I am furry...beard....longer hair........

1040. IKE
GO ASTROS!

BEAT THE CARDS!
Ike, how 'bout those last two games???

BTW, how does ST know you're furry?
1044. IKE
Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 9:00 AM CDT on September 23, 2006.

Ike, how 'bout those last two games???

BTW, how does ST know you're furry?


That game last night was awesome.

Lucky guess for ST...He's never seen me...
1045. Patrap
..we see the Tornado threat Buster..its been happening since 2pm yesterday..post all the real time threats ya want..but never,never,...put into a post a Hurricane point of impact..unless the threat is real..it brings the whole Blogs rep into question..when seen thru others eyes...
1046. HCW
GOM still has another 2+ months left and the season is not close to being over for that area.
Buster, I agree with you that the GOM is VERY warm...but it has been all season and the GOM has been very inactive as it is now.

You are very right that the warmth of the GOM is a contributing factor to the severe weather in the nation's heartland...but that has nothing to do with a tropical weather system either existant or soon to be.
96L doing what history suggests.

It's nice to see that the only things to worry about her are the delusions. Happens when there is no real tropical weather to worry the US.

The real weather worry for the SE USA this weekend will be from the NW NOT the South.

/BA
1050. IKE
Water temps are still warm in the GOM..but this weather pattern...cold fronts/troughs has been consistent. If something could get going in the SW Caribbean it would almost certainly be drawn N or NE.
1051. Patrap
Hurricanes and Strong Tropical storms very real threat in October & November ..along the GOM..ie: Juan ..in 85...a 971 Cat 1..that flooded Se Louisiana ..and looped along the coast till Nov 1
1052. IKE
Cyclone...the game IS Monday!
Hey buster, What are you basing the prediction on?
1054. Patrap
..er..the Game is Monday and the CONUS frontal passage tommorrow ..is the weather maker for Monday..so...have a good day..LOL
Somebody better get word out to the teams, the fans, to U2 and Greenday because the game is Monday.
1057. Patrap
..has new pics posted on his blog..enjoy..Im out to see the real weather outside via lawnmower..
Ok, I'll bite what is a TCFA?:)
Navy just issued TCFA for 96L



TCFA?
1060. IKE
NO forecast for Monday..."Monday
Breezy. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Highs in the lower 80s. North winds 15 to 20 mph.".....

Low humidity....ah...yes....that city deserves a break. Beating the Falcons with their running game is going to be tough.
Also, a major hurricane may form along this warm fetch of tropical moisture and sadly New Orleans is in the path again.If you look on the imagery you can see the storm is about to form just North of the Yucatan

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion 8:05am

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LOW IN THE SE GULF IS JUST N OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL NEAR 23N87W COVERS THE E GULF S OF
29N E OF 92W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 87W. STRONG

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE SE GULF COVERS THE AREA N OF 19N W
OF 81W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL AND W CUBA COMBINED
WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N
FROM 71W-85W AND GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN NE UPPER
FLOW WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 10N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AHEAD OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W.

Ah thank you..so what does it say?
1064. Patrap
..Deuce & Bush..all the Help a 2-0 team needs ...plus the crowd..Looks like along nite for the Birds..LOL...TWC guys are biased too..LOL
1065. i12BNEi
If the Jetstream does infact head north,GOM will be a ticking timebomb!Anyway,I have a question.If there are no storms in the GOM then will there be more of a chance that the season could last longer (With the H2O temps.)?
1066. IKE
96L does look more organized. Watch out Azores....
1068. IKE
Deuce is a good player. Bush should have been taken by the Texans...brain fart. Great pickup for NO. I hope NO wins.
1070. IKE
OMG Cyclone.
As i stated last night 96L continues to show signs of futher intensification with no threat to land. Isaac is looking very likely.

Here is the NHC @ 500am

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION...
AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH.


Here is the 8:05am Discussion

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 21N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 14N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
ROTATION COVERING A LARGE AREA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-23N BETWEEN 35W-45W. THIS
WAVE HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SLOWLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
1072. IKE
Here's a forecast for Mobile,Al for Monday.."Monday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Temperatures falling into the 60s in the afternoon. North winds 10 to 20 mph becoming 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon."........

That'll lower the water temps. That's a strong cold front for September. Severe weather is possible further north today.
1073. Patrap
.as we plow into October..the Frontal passages of Cooler air..will tend to upwell the GOM..from the High N winds and the Temps begin to fall ..down to near threshold temps of near 80f...Thats why we never ..hardly..get a Major Hurricane after the 15th of October historically.But ..there r exceptions to History...But as the dAYS ROLL BY..THE THREAT LESSENS..a STRONG tROPICAL STORM..IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH caT-1..OR 2 hURRICANES..BUT THE SUN ANGLE LOWERS EVERY DAY..
1074. IKE
That's why I said...with this pattern...it IS close to being over along the northern GOM coast.
1076. IKE
The water temps are soon to start dropping along the northern GOM coast.
1077. i12BNEi
Patrap
Very nice,Thanks for the info.I learn a little more every day :)
Posted By: fllamorgan at 2:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2006.

Also, a major hurricane may form along this warm fetch of tropical moisture and sadly New Orleans is in the path again.If you look on the imagery you can see the storm is about to form just North of the Yucatan

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion 8:05am

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LOW IN THE SE GULF IS JUST N OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL NEAR 23N87W COVERS THE E GULF S OF
29N E OF 92W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 87W. STRONG

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE SE GULF COVERS THE AREA N OF 19N W
OF 81W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL AND W CUBA COMBINED
WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N
FROM 71W-85W AND GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN NE UPPER
FLOW WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 10N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AHEAD OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Where does the NHC say ANYTHING will come of this ULL.

Are you sleeping?
Also real quick the 06GFDL is now picking up on the system coming of africa behind 96L.

SEE GFDL HERE

1083. IKE
cyclone...you must be rolling one as we type.
Posted By: fllamorgan at 2:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2006.

Also, a major hurricane may form along this warm fetch of tropical moisture and sadly New Orleans is in the path again.If you look on the imagery you can see the storm is about to form just North of the Yucatan


Dude what are you talking about???
1085. ryang
hurricane23 i thought you said the nhc would mention the new wave in the 8;05 discussion this morning
People are certainly entitled to their opinions, and I did not give the fellow a minus......but really, to pull an opinion like that out of your a$$ is just downright silly.
What are you basing your prediction on, that has no shower activity associated with it.
Good point 27 windows... The ULL in the gulf, need not be used to panic people. They aren't even saying mid to ULL low there... It takes 4-5 days or more for these things to transition & most never do. This one is like 2 days into it.
Well folks, as interesting as this conversation is getting, I still must attend to my yard. It's screaming for attention.
1091. Patrap
..has a DD-214..much better document..lOL
Has certficate of live birth still makes a lot wonder.lol
Pat...what's that?
Thanks for the affirmation Skye....

You know, I've been curious about your handle; Have you ever been to the Isle of Skye, or Lochalsh?
1096. IKE
Sorry cyclone...the FBI has never analyzed me. I prefer to not have them involved in my life.

There's nothing in the gulf.....a ULL north of Yucatan...a few thundershowers getting drawn north by the low in the central US...but no tropical system is going to form.

I think you're just looking for a response cyclone.

Maybe the FBI SHOULD continue to keep an eye, maybe 2, on U.
1097. Patrap
..DD-214..Military Discharge Document..with Character of Service.."Honorable"..for Patrap...and one of my personal prized documents..framed next to fathers WW-2 Discharge form...
96L made it to floater statues. Here's the RGB. The low level spin is pulling together.
dd-214 military discharge follows you the rest of your life make 500 copies its required for almost anything you will do from then on.lol
1101. IKE
Not funny cyclone.

How about some compassion?

1102. Patrap
..better to have a DD-214..than a tunnel up yer butt..anyday..LMAO!
1103. GoofOff
I don't see anything going on that is likely to cause a problem for the next several days. Beyond that, the models don't really mean anything as conditions are always very fluid over 3 days out. They are not even "set in stone" 24 hours out. I agree that it is wise to continue to watch what is developing, but to make any kind of doom prediction is idiotic, IMHO.
1104. ryang
who can tell me where is the strong wave that came off yesterday
I don't live in N.O.

And you need to change your name to;
IllsayanythingtogetariseoutofpeoplebecauseIhavenolifeandthisistheonlyformofentertainmentavailable2a loserlikeme
1107. Patrap
..old Irish verse.."its better to keep thy mouth shut..and be thought a FOOL..than to open it..and remove all DOUBT"....
1108. IKE
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 9:54 AM CDT on September 23, 2006. (hide)
IKE at 2:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2006.

Sorry cyclone...the FBI has never analyzed me. I prefer to not have them involved in my life.

There's nothing in the gulf.....a ULL north of Yucatan...a few thundershowers getting drawn north by the low in the central US...but no tropical system is going to form.

I think you're just looking for a response cyclone.

Maybe the FBI SHOULD continue to keep an eye, maybe 2, on U.

Some of those 500+ questions they ask are very weird. I was afraid to answer some of them.


You should be!
Now 27 thats a mouth full.lol
1110. refill
The 12UTC GFS again show a Tropical system passing directly over Puerto Rico sometime between October 4 and 5. The 6UTC run was showing the same system going north out to sea but now they show it directly over PR. Any comments??Link
Folks NO THREAT from 96L...The wave behind it is the one to watch in my opinion.Here is the 06GFDL picking up on it.
1113. ricderr
good morning...nothing like the blended smell of stupidity...sarcasm and wit to start your day
That is the same system the GFDL is picking up on now as stated by H23. Looks like it will be another sea dweller after making the islands unfortunatly. Way too far out to tell though!
Unfortunate for the Islands that is! Not that it is going out to sea in that run.
27 mail
The 06 GFS has a weak system of the florida coast...
ptrap earlier u stated that major hurricanes never, er hardly ever effect the GOM after oct 11th or whatever. how quickly are we to forget that WILMA struck end of october just LAST year as a weak cat 3 hurricane!
ok do you see 2 wave on that map yes or no??

now her is my thinking the 1 wave you see i moveing more W to WSW and i htink that is 96L now the 2 wave you see is a littl more N and it and it keeps going more N and out to sea

and i ask you what wave you think is 96L???

one wave is moveing N the 2nd wave is moveing more W to WSW at this time

but what do i no lol
lol


comets any one?
1120. GoofOff
There has been 2 other impressive systems reach the coast after 96L. You can't find them now because they both went poof shortly after they hit water. I don't know how long this will continue, but right now their batting average is zero.
Posted By: ricderr at 3:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2006.
good morning...nothing like the blended smell of stupidity...sarcasm and wit to start your day

My sentiments exactly.
Terry
ok do you see 2 wave on that map yes or no??

now her is my thinking the 1 wave you see i moveing more W to WSW and i htink that is 96L now the 2 wave you see is a littl more N and it and it keeps going more N and out to sea

and i ask you what wave you think is 96L???

one wave is moveing N the 2nd wave is moveing more W to WSW at this time

but what do i no lol
lol


comets any one?
haileys comet?
ok do you see 2 wave on that map yes or no??

now her is my thinking the 1 wave you see i moveing more W to WSW and i htink that is 96L now the 2 wave you see is a littl more N and it and it keeps going more N and out to sea

and i ask you what wave you think is 96L???

one wave is moveing N the 2nd wave is moveing more W to WSW at this time

but what do i no lol
lol


comets any one?
Taz, I agree with your assessment...and it seems like we had a similar setup a few storms ago and I think it was Florence. If conditions prevail, the SW blob may find it's way...but, then I'm like you...what the heck do I know....I mean there are just so many professional prognosticating casters in here that I'd be a dummy to speculate...lol.
Ramsdis has the close up loop of 96L.. It's strengthend to much to go west. Only the lowest & weakest of waves could have rode that lower current west. It's developed to much, the mid to lower winds are headed NNW.

I'd like to go to the Isle of Skye. Actually it's the name of my stud pony, He's 1/2 irish & his dam's name is Star. Wanted to keep the celestral names going that had been given to her other offspring. There's pics of him deep in the photos in my blog. He's quite the looker & available for servous this coming spring... Speaking of my blog, I got local graphic happy...The EC FL locals let me know what ya think.

I'm off to play
Taz i think the wave on the top is 96L
1129. Patrap
floridafisherman needs to read the posts a lil better..see my posts earlier..The posts says we Historically ..dont get major Strikes after the Middle of October..but the threat still exists..ie:Juan a cat-1 .with a 971 mb .lowest reaing Nov 1..85..relax..
1130. ryang
taz there is another strong wave that will come off afica tomorrow
: moonlightcowboy i think that 2nd wave there is the one to watch and the wave that is 96L is moveing N and out to sea
1132. Patrap
..see my GMT 1:55post..or the gmt 2:21 post for clarification...if you must...
ok one wave is moveing N and out to sea the 2nd wave you see is moveing more W to WSW
: ryang yes there is and i think that one will soon be come 97L
1136. Patrap
..Does not forget his friends along the GOM..never has..never will...
96L is all one wave...it's still a wave, that's why it's blobby. It's yet to consolidate into a storm...

Cyclone, you must be new at this. Sure, the "trend" especially this year has been out to sea. If you follow these things for years, you'll see that there really only has to be "one" that does something weird, strange...and it does happen. To dismiss other possibilites is remiss. They all bare watching and indifferently to what's considered the "norm." If all were that predictable, we wouldn't need the "chunks" of money spent on forecasting.
ptrap i didnt see your earlier post i was commenting on that one post u made and it did seem like u forgot that not even a year ago s florida was hit by a major hurricane at the end of october. and historical data means little as each storm has its own circumstances and weather patterns effecting it. and tropical threats can exist in almost any month down here although most action is from june-nov
ok then it seen like that one wave to the N of 96L is moveing a way may be thats why 96L is moveing more W to WSW
96L is really starting to organize
1143. ryang
taz do you know where is weather456 i did not see him for 5 days now
Taz, I posted this in your blog:

Posted By: MichaelSTL at 10:23 AM CDT on September 23, 2006.

I just updated my blog - you can look at radar loops and other things.

For 96L - The entire area is 96L; the NRL images are centered over the system; that means the blob to the north is actually part of 96L, which is under heavy shear (shear = displaced convection). The stuff to the south is also part of 96L; in fact, it is closer to the center than the other stuff.


Notice what the TCFA says:

1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 14.0N 42.0W TO 19.0N 46.0W WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. 2. A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 14.0N 42.0W HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE LAST 48
HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT FOR THE LAST 72 HOURS.
SHEAR VALUES ARE
FORECASTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
what does the new GFS show, i will check it in a second
ryang nop
Agreed, Cyclone...the loop can be extremely explosive and dangerous...a weak storm there can suddenly erupt into catastrophy.
: MichaelSTL thanks
1150. PBG00
new blog up for the Doc
It has always seemed to me that the Navy metorologists have taken the lead from the NHC. Today they designate 96L as TCFA. I figured they were getting some sort of heads up info from the NHC. That lead me to suspect the NHC would be beefing up it's potential development scenario at the 11:30 am advisory - ie TD possible, etc.... yet NHC continues to say:

'THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED...BUT SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS"

Explanations / comments about the relationship between the Navy and the NHC forecasts?

/BA
1152. Patrap
..all US DoD interest have access to the same tools..,as the NHC..they support each other..not unlike the NAVY helps Support The Joint Typhoon Warning Center..in the Pacific..the NHC just have a wider audience.
Good afternoon,

Things might be getting really interesting next week!

Take a look at the 12z GFS once again continues to bring a system towards the islands.

CLICK HERE FOR GFS @ 144HRS
im a little concerned what can happen in the GOM after this front passes..not whats (not) happening in the atlantic
1155. WARNING
O helene you were once hott but now ugly
you have aged so much so now farwell!

ooo i got some poetry skills!!!!!