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Gordon hits the Azores; new Invest 96L; Helene heads out to sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:15 PM GMT on September 20, 2006

A strong tropical wave with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity and some low-level spin has developed near 9N 29W, about 450 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. This wave has been officially designated as "Invest 96L" by the Hurricane Center this morning. The storm is under about 10 knots of vertical wind shear and is over warm ocean waters of about 28C, so some slow development is possible over the next few days as it moves west-northwest over the open Atlantic. Most of the models predict slow development will occur, but none develop it into a hurricane. The long range GFS model predicts that this system will pass north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and possibly threaten Bermuda before recurving out to sea.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for Invest 96L.

Hurricane Helene headed out to sea
Hurricane Helene has begun her expected turn towards the northwest, and is on track to recurve harmlessly out to sea. Helene has weakened some since yesterday--wind shear from the trough to her west has eroded the cloud pattern on that side, and the storm now has a distinctly lopsided appearance on satellite imagery. Helen is still over relatively warm water and under light wind shear, so may be able to reintensify into a Category 3 hurricane later today or tomorrow.


Figure 2. This morning's line-up of storms. Image credit: Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey.

Gordon pounds the Azores
Hurricane Gordon whipped through the Azores islands this morning as a Category 1 hurricane, but preliminary reports indicate no deaths or injuries occurred, and little damage was reported. Animations of satellite microwave imagery from CIMSS show that the center of Gordon passed over the southeastern-most island of Santa Maria, where power outages and fallen trees blocking roads created some minor problems. Winds on Santa Maria Island at 8am local time peaked at 56 mph, gusting to 82 mph. Gordon is rapidly weakening over cold waters, and is expected to become a powerful extratropical storm this afternoon. Gordon may cause trouble for golf's Ryder Cup in Ireland, due to begin Friday. Gordon is expected to move over or just offshore Ireland as a powerful extratropical storm on Friday and stall there, bringing high winds and intermittent heavy rain to Ireland for several days.

Hurricane history of the Azores
The Portuguese-owned Azores Islands, located about 1,500 km (930 miles) off the western coast of Europe, does not have a long and storied hurricane history. The ocean waters surrounding the islands are typically 22-23 C during hurricane season, which is 4-5 C below what is needed to sustain a hurricane. Occasionally, a fast-moving hurricane caught in the jet stream can make it all the way to the islands before decaying to a tropical storm; Gordon is the ninth hurricane since 1900 that managed to affect the Azores. All of these were Category 1 storms except for a Category 2 storm in 1926. I could find no mention anywhere of any deaths or damage having occurred as the result of these hurricanes.

The last time a hurricane hit the Azores was in 1998, when the not-so-terrible version of Hurricane Ivan passed through as a Category 1 storm. Ivan missed hitting any populated islands directly, and did little damage. Hurricane Emmy passed through the Azores in 1976 as a Category 1 storm. Emmy also did little damage, but tragically, a Venezuelan Air Force airplane carrying a school choir to Europe tried to land in the Azores at the height of the hurricane and crashed, killing all 68 people on board. The other major hurricane related tragedy to affect the islands occurred on On September 21, 1957, when the German sailing ship Pamir, with 86 crewmen aboard, was caught in Category 1 Hurricane Carrie. The ship sank, and only six survivors were found after a massive rescue effort. The shipwreck received enormous international media attention as a result and was perceived as a worldwide tragedy.

My next update will be Friday morning.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Sorry for the repeat post, folks. I am just getting started posting here, but have enjoyed reading posts for months.
1002. Patrap
..Is saying ...im done for the night too...gnight everyone...
Patrap, you have mail, nite, bro.
1005. Patrap
..okay..gnight cowboy
what you think swfl boy is the wave looking more organized then it did early today
BAD MODEL RUNS BAD!
yeah but its got plenty of time to build, only been in the water a few days now.
give it a couple more days of sunlight and see what kind of energy 96L produces
these models

Guys i just finished looking at the long range GFS and its showing some crazy stuff that kinda got my attention check it out!

NOTE:Take with caution this is way out with the GFS 360hrs.



SEE LONG GFS ANIMATION HERE
i dont like the looks of the gfs, thats what i figured it would do though if it actually hits the US
is that a joke hurricane 23 or is it real ouch
Stormchaser77 take a look at the GFS loop i posted above...
doesnt heat produce the energy to develop cyclones?
Freaky future.. if that happens
Structurally, a tropical cyclone is a large, rotating system of clouds, wind, and thunderstorms. Its primary energy source is the release of the heat of condensation from water vapor condensing at high altitudes, the heat ultimately derived from the sun.
No joke guys its for real....Take a look at the loop.Remember take with caution its ways out and alot can change.But it is still interesting.
That GFS run does get attention; but what, 2 weeks out...long time.

Stormchaser, you said, "Helene"...something on your mind?
Posted By: swFLboy at 5:38 AM GMT on September 21, 2006.
those BAM models are useless. they always take it west. All others either don't develop it or take it NW. And story, tropical systems get most of their energy at night, not in the sunlight.

ALL of a tropical systems energy is derived from the sun
what cat is it suppose to be from the loop hurricane 23 had to add that one to my faviotes list will be watching
stormchaser77 thats why i said take with great caution.I wonder if the GFS is refering to 96L?Maybe some active times ahead.
well all i know is condensation of water is produced by the sun and without it thered be no tropical system
i know its along way out but does the gfs say how strong that one will be at that time thanks
wtg wg03 and all you guys. I have learned a lot about following the tropics right here.
best source of info on the net
yeah why isnt there anything about diurnal maximum anywhere?
seriously though maybe it doesnt use the energy during the day for some reason and saves it for the nighttime but it needs a few days of sunlight to give it more condensation and hence produce more energy for the system
ok, that makes sense, maybe it takes awhile for the condensation to fully transfer into convection or something like that
ok that makes sense
lol sorry for sayin that twice, the first comment didnt show up for awhile so i thought it wasnt going to
TD Friday or Saturday..my guess

anybody got a good Saharan Dry Air link?
check out new models...now 3 are going west, one is taking it fish

yeah 48-72 hrs, man that gfs is what really creeped me out, has a monster right into FL
does it have anything to do with the tides and the moon?
you think it thinking about the 96l the gfs long range that has it going into fl .
Guys here is another view at the GFS at 372hrs.Lets see what happens in the 6z.



thanks swFL
that dry air is probably whats limiting 96L right now
996mb is still a TS though so their intensity could be off
lol theyre much lower now too, theyve come to do one thing, soak the earth
when its in the red its more likely to be a problem?
lbar is the only one say fish on here

ok ty, i see what you mean, thats pretty cool
on the gfs model 23 was showing the blob that hits fla is only 996mb
still cant get over the 360 hrs model do you think its thinking that 96l is going to take that track . and have those long range ever been close to forecasting a storm thanks
im sure the models are not perfect but i bet they do pretty well, they can show you one thing now and a completely different scenario tomorrow though
good point, didnt realize that was so far out, i figured it was the 96L prediction
thanks for all the answers you guys . at least tonight i dont have to stay up for any 5 am update .
i think we're looking at a build of this high and possibly bad news, way too early to be sure though

if that high above cuba and dominican republic builds strong enough it could stear this system right into the gulf and not be affected by the trough until it would already be affecting land. never know.
hey swflaboy is the light orange in that model pic. consider a high . and the dark orange thanks i dont know what the colors are yet im learning on those
maybe theres not enough time for the high to build behind Helene and thats why they are going post96L for westerly track.
just look for the H's for highs and L's for Lows, they vividness in color reflects the amount of intensity
definitely got another good sized trough strollin across the rockies but doesnt seem quite as strong as the last.
you dont think it really just depends on whether that high rebuilds itself behind Helene in time or not?
-post removed by HadesGodWyvern-
Story, I think you're exactly right in this case...if you're wrong here, then we'll both be wrong.

If you can remember(Rand was right, too -- timing, motion), I saw an erosion in the tail of the trough that is now taking Helene N and NE. The timing was just off, or she would have turned more west for sure.

The tail end is eroding and as Helene moves N, it'll cause that high to her east to build in and dominant a large segment filling in behind Helene and the escaping trough. It's going to build in and there's also nothing but high pressures everywhere else as well.

Result is a big dominant high in a few days that will drive what will become Issac(on Friday or Saturday)west for a north Caribbean pass to a US landfall...quite possibly the GOM or the FL east coast.

Her turn north would only be caused early on by her strengthening and forward speed racing out NW in front of the building high. If this is going to happen, it's got to get moving.

I'm a rookie, so what do I know...not too much; but IMVHO, we've got a strong category storm "Issac" for landfall(guessing eight, nine days away at most).

....lol, I'm must be delirious at 2 in the morning.
i agree with ya moonlight
hard to predict whether a trough will be on time to prevent landfall though
check out how high up that first trough is that emerged off the east coast, if the next ones emerge off the same location a steady southern path like the models are showing would completely miss the troughs
and the longer this thing takes to organize the more west its going to head as well, spelling even more possible problems
swFLboy, you are prolly RIGHT...lol
really the only way to predict storms is 3-5 days ahead of time, the rest is just up in the air pretty much, too many variables
probabilities for development are up for 96L

how could a model not develop 96L into a storm???? whats going to affect it from forming?
im not trying to say its going anywhere, its possible for it to go the path of the other 4 fish storms, and its possible for it to go further west, just waiting and seeing and discussing the possibilities
theres more messy stuff comin into few

that shows this thing going pretty much 8 degrees north in the next 48 hours
that fsu model puts it at 22N 40W, its at 12N 33W right now
unless that model is saying to heck with 96L, 97L is the rooster
well i guess we're going to get to see how accurate those models are real quick on this one
wow 96L is a monster wave
look at that huge inverted V
649
AXNT20 KNHC 210428
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2006

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 75W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N71W SW ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE FROM THE FLORIDA E COAST NEAR 26N80W TO BEYOND 32N69W. AN
UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE TO BEYOND 32N68W. NARROWING UPPER
TROUGH IS WEDGE BETWEEN THE ABOVE RIDGE AND THE UPPER HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE HELENE WHICH HAS BROADEN OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS TO ENCOMPASS A LARGE AREA FROM 21N-40N BETWEEN 48W-63W.
NARROWING CUT-OFF UPPER LOW E OF HELENE IS BEING COMPRESSED BY
THE UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA AND IS CENTERED NEAR
22N38W EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS NE/SW FROM 27N34W-18N43W. UPPER
HIGH ANCHORED NE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N23W COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED NEAR 29N38W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING S TO 20N FROM AFRICA
TO 50W WITH THIS AREA VERY DRY TONIGHT.

$$
WALLACE
AN
UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE TO BEYOND 32N68W. NARROWING UPPER
TROUGH IS WEDGE BETWEEN THE ABOVE RIDGE AND THE UPPER HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE HELENE WHICH HAS BROADEN OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS TO ENCOMPASS A LARGE AREA FROM 21N-40N BETWEEN 48W-63W.
NARROWING CUT-OFF UPPER LOW E OF HELENE IS BEING COMPRESSED BY
THE UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA AND IS CENTERED NEAR
22N38W EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS NE/SW FROM 27N34W-18N43W. UPPER
HIGH ANCHORED NE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N23W COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED NEAR 29N38W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING S TO 20N FROM AFRICA
TO 50W WITH THIS AREA VERY DRY TONIGHT.
wow that NHC statement was blocked out for me.
you dont agree with this path, swFL??

WARNING: PEOPLE ON WUNDERGROUND WONT TAKE THINGS EXACTLY IN THE WAY THEY WERE MEANT TO BE SAID
Did the NHC discussion not post?

Also, I'm wondering if the GFDL is picking up that "extension" of the wave that's cut out to the N, and that 96L is really what's strengthening just slightly SW of that?

If that ULL tugs on it, it's got to hurry, otherwise 96L is going to continue "cruising" west in a hurry. Again, only IMVHO...lol
this is obviously a HUGE wave, im not saying how big it will eventually get, could be big though

ya i think if it does anything it will ride up the east coast, i doubt it will get into the gulf or the caribbean
ya it posted, just for some reason everything you posted was hidden from view..
1132. dewfree
The new runs of the long range GFS put the 96L at or about the east coast of florida 274 or so hours out .humm cant depend on those runs can you nor can you forget them .darn anyway have fun with it as i watch the cold air pool and sink south you can watch this one .GOing from very hot to cool in a couple of weeks was dramatic enough for me !Have too much to do while trying to get ready for the cold now that it has cooled off .have a good one 73s
1133. dewfree
or was it the next one lol
i dont think its possible for a wave that big to form in a couple days, the fact that its that big coming off should be the only warning sign right now, if its not organized by tomorrow night or friday morning id start to say otherwise
its gotta try to build a core in that big mess, gonna take plenty of condensation


Remnant Low former Tropical Depression TWO
im seeing WNW
Later, swFLboy...good discussion, enjoyed it, thanks...U2, Story...time for a little shuteye, myself, up early for all day meeting...so, won't get to see too much again before Thursday evening...yall keep it locked down and this room in control....lol....like that's possible.

Later!
am i the only one who thinks this is the best looking wave this season?


Area of Investigation 96L
interest
progress
forest, arrest, crest, nest...ok im done lol
what we're looking at right now is just as classic as a wave gets, probably a large storm producer
contest, infest, assess
lol inc***? not sure if i should spell it out
ive been goin solo on 'em for awhile, im bored lol
Taz will say it...lol, just wait until he gets one eye open.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrshr.gif

Low shear.
i dont think theres a chance LBAR could be close to right on its current track, i think it should make it to at least 50W before a turn
Link

...see how the highs develop.
based on that moonlight i would say its going to be off to sea
lol i cant tell what kind of word youre lookin for
congest
weak westerly berm. highs rule
contest
i dont think its possible to think of a word i cant rhyme with
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 8:27 AM GMT on September 21, 2006.
based on that moonlight i would say its going to be off to sea


...based on what, Story? Please explain.
that model shows a trough push the high back and weaken it to the point of a recurve out to sea
mmm McDonald's all day breakfast
96L is going to follow the ridge of the high like Gordon and Florence have done, the models seem to be predicting a stronger high pressure for the wave behind 96L and that seems to be the most likely player right now
again im basing all of this by the models ive seen tonight, could easily change, off to bed, g'night
I'm on a diet...stop it!!
lol if they delivered id be down, have a good one
Caffeine=Intense.
its too much to assess, leave it to the rest, hope you have the best, bet its not a contest, would you put it to the test? wouldnt settle for less? really i must confess before i have to regress i make no sense.
stormchaser=smarta** lol :)
I think I like you too!
Enjoyed watching the word play!
Jamaica (sigh) No Mon...wish I was :)
lol.....island girl in my heart always....you get the fever when you have been there...now I have to visit at least once a year!
updated for ya. ; )
i see the LBAR gives 96L flippers, dont tell that to eye, StormTop, or RAYFROMBOSTON
LoL Story, are you the new NHC:

Isaac:
Winds: 27mph
Position: 11N 33W - WNW
nope, just a relayer of information
go the winds and position from Navy Site
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_pages/thumbs/tc06/ATL/96L.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/sm20060921.08 15.goes12.x.ir1km_bw.96LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-107N-333W.82pc.jpg
its quiet
you know what the most unfair thing in the world is? sorry if your a yankees fan but the Florida Marlins baseball team pays their players a salary of 15million a year, NY Yankees pay 195million. Thats 180 MILLION more dollars one team can pay players that another team cant...just a thought
nope not a Yankees fan
its not the yankees fault, its the leagues for not putting on a cap
Space Shuttle has now landed safely
gas has dropped 54 cents in 6 weeks, pretty low
NHC already has 96L moving WNW to NW. Already a fish.
although im not denying a fish storm, but most of the models expected WNW, than NW, than West
nope nevermind my last post:

Models
This place would be unhabitable if it were not for hurricanes. A solid fifteen sec swell is pinging the inside buoys. Hey surf is up. Thank god for hurricanes.
hmmm.... the models dissapered
and ARod makes almost twicwe the whole Marlins team....
heartburn, darn mexican food last night
Good morning All,

Is it me or does 96 seem to have good circulation but no storms around what looks like the center? Do you think this will change?
another MSCF:

Mighty September Cold Front
well 96L is starting off like most Tropical Disturbances should, T-Storms rotating around it, its starting to become more organized
yep, definitely coming together
GFS at 384 hrs (day 16):

96L??

is this 96L?
anyone care to guess what October will bring tropically
ok i just reviwed and its not 96L, its a new wave coming off Africa, GFS doesnt even develop 96L
for any one who cares here is the GFS and other models
GFDL model is out for 96L in Dr. Masters blog, pretty interesting track
1224. nash28
Good morning everyone. I see the GFDL has the Invest curving harmlessly out to see, but the others disagree, so far.
normal October:

October
not 96L, but one behinde it looks to have more of a chance to affect thr US
Posted By: cajunkid at 7:39 AM EDT on September 21, 2006.

not 96L, but one behinde it looks to have more of a chance to affect thr US


the very very very long range GFS has it in the Bahamas in 16 days
thank you, gosh
1232. 21N71W
Morning All,
Very nice WPB !!, right over my head this GFS on day 12......
start clicking those "!" and those "-" guys ;)
How accurate are the 16 day forecast models. Are they as accurate as the 24 hour ones?
Morning all

So who is the wise guy that bolded the blog? Nice going...

Anywho, any model run past 144hrs is pretty much worthless IMHO. I won't even look at them because 90 percent of the time it just leads to unfounded speculation of where a system may be in two weeks...lol

As for 96, and the one behind it. Looks to me like plenty of trofs will be rolling off the E coast and should scoop most anything in the Atlantic out to sea. Again, this is speculaiton since we are talking about weeks out, but that is the way it appears for now. Nothing to get overly excited about.
Posted By: tropicallydepressed at 8:05 AM EDT on September 21, 2006.

How accurate are the 16 day forecast models. Are they as accurate as the 24 hour ones?


no luckily
1238. K8eCane
but stormjunkie
seems to me there wouldntn be a blog this popular if people didnt get overly excited
right now this is a popular blog and thats why
1241. K8eCane
i think you and weatherguy dont want this to be a popular blog lol
1243. nash28
Do something else with your day TD06.
1244. IKE
nice going TD06...you've been reported.


i fixed it i think
morning StormW
ok now that, thats over
Morning Nash, Stormw
1250. nash28
MOrning StormW, Ike, WPB.
1252. nash28
Morning Sandcrab.
Morning gang.
1255. nash28
Bye TD06
Morning Ike
good morning all!!
Morning SW, Ike, Nash, and watchin. Good to see all of you. Looks like the weak high and strong trof should remain our friends for anything in the Atlantic.
Sorry....Mornin Rand and Sand :)
1260. Patrap
..is up & atum..G morning..nice & cool here...61f
Morning Rand I been lazy today took the day off gonna cut this 5 acres before the rain starts tommorow was up very late at a hydrocloric acid spill.
Mornin Patrap, Lil-Fema trailer get cool last nite?
Geez Crab....that sounds like fun. What happened?
1265. IKE
Good morning everybody...low of 58.3 in Defuniak Springs, Fl........
There's Pat...Morning.
1267. nash28
Hydrocloric acid spill???

i must be the cold spot:

75 low in west palm
a very cold low of 70 tonight
Good MOrning everyone
There goes IKE bragging about that cool weather again. Push some down here please.
1271. Patrap
..was puur-fect..was up late posting Katrina pics om my blog..plus a few surprise pics too..LOL
Driver got hungry came off I-10 to Mcdonalds with a leaky trailer and spilled about 1000 gallons. Had to close 3 bussineses and vacum it up and transfer the material to another tanker. I am glad he got off the interstate might have caused a lot of new paint jobs.lol
1274. IKE
It's suppose to warm up now...warm front coming in off of the GOM....more rain by tomorrow.

Next front to move thru by next Monday.
That must have taken a while to clean up Crab. I see why you said you were up late.
1276. Patrap
.morn StormW,Rand..everyone...Atlantic...tuned off for a while ..LOL
61 degrees here right now feels great wish I could send down to you
Pat, thought about you yesterday...drowned a few shrimp...the weather made it a very enjoyable time.
Morning Pat and others I missed.

Pat, I will be making that call either tomorrow or next week. Thanks again for the info!

Y'all have fun in here, got to get back to work. Don't let the invests get you guys too wound up ;)

See ya
1281. Patrap
..some shrimp..give their all..LOL..
They finished up around 2am so I said heck with it I have 8 weeks of vacation on the books.lol
LOL Stormw but remember EMA never does anything.
remember EMA never does anything.

LOL!
Well abnormal day yesterday. Scrab truck hit by a train spilled hydraulic oil everywere then ash truch turned over on a major n/s artery and then uhaul truck got hit and ruptured its gas tand and then the grand finally with the acid. Geez dont need no more days like that.lol
1287. nash28
That's alot of vacation Crab:-) Speaking of vacation, I have a buddy flying in from Dallas tonight and staying with me until Monday night.

I will probably not be on much after this evening until he leaves.
Nash, Katrina kept me from takeing any last year Ivan the year before so I really hope none this year ready for a needed break.lol
We're goning from fall right back to summer. It was nice while it lasted.

Still cool, lower sixties this morning. TStorms already showing in GOM moving towards shore.

Low for Fri 76 and 79 for Sat with highs near 90.

Summer Go Away!
1290. alaema
ike you from defuniak springs?
1291. Patrap
Patrap will send sandcrab..HazMat suit & road flares for Holidays...sounds like ya could use them..
Mornin' guys...it's 50 degrees here right now - uglies still huddled in their doghouse shivering - cats all crying for warm food...horses hitting the oats hard...I love it being COOLER but this is just too cool for me...especially for this time of year. Still hoping for rain...will take the cold if I get rain with it. Got about an inch the other day, but need that for several days (I know.."here's saddlegait - whining about the rain again"....
Thanks Patrap,lol I have a trunk full of tyveck suits and 3 rolls duck tape.
Is that woman whining about rain again?
1295. nash28
You need a break Crab. Badly!
1296. jake436
Top 'o the mornin', all
Good Morning.

What's the latest on 96L?
gosh its already 81 here in west palm
Speaking of duct tape "Gorilla glue" duct tape out is very strong stuff make shure it does not attach to skin. It works better than Nair for hair removal.lol
"Gorilla glue" duct tape

Didn't know they had that. I'll add some to my duct tape collection.
Regular duct tape = 100mph tape
Gorilla glue duct tape = 135mph tape
1302. Patrap
..Aquired 200 tyvex suit for his Demolition crews thru FEMA..coutresty of unlocked Semi..LOL
Patrap, you will appreciate this: FEMA sent 6 cases of duct tape to "repair tears in the lil tent kits" they gave out just after the storm.
I wonder how they would test that to find out?
for those who missed it, this is our next front moving thru the US:

MSCF
Here's the Gorilla Glue duct tape wind tunnel....
Randrewl

Good Morning.

What's the latest on 96L?
good morning everyone,

86.5 degrees in georgetown
Rand I am gonna send update in a few
1310. Patrap
.saw them thingees..LOL..they lucky I didnt take the semi....
new models show 96L away from land:

new models

1312. Patrap
..96L ..another few days of nice sunsets..near the Azores..in 7-9 days...
ps:

the XTRAP is not a model
morning everybody! :)

sorry been absent, work has been killer lately, and had to do several computer upgrades (core2 duo's roxer!).....

looks like the models for 96L are all over the place...... but it would seem that "sucking sound" in the mid atlantic could continue.......

hard to believe for the US that ernesto was the highlight of the year.....

58f here in myrtle beach..... seems fall is in the air! :)

no tourists, low humidity, turn AC off.... life is good! :)
1315. Patrap
..notice the thunderstorms firing along the warm front..in the middle GOM..thats my weather come tommorrow -Sun...then the front comes thru..for a lovely Monday..and we need that for the MNF game..for sure
TWC didn't even mention 96L.
dang...... the models for 96L changed will i was posting! LOL

looks like nw..... but will it eventually turn west???
1318. Patrap
..very small..feature in the sw GOM...very ..er ..interesting
Well there's the chart...96L still 1010mb and 25kts. 10.7N and 33.3W according to the Navy. That's about it for now.
West??
Westcasters.....
Morning thel! Good to see ya. Been awhile. Yea, kind of funny to think we saw the center of the highlight of the year make land fall in Long Beach NC...lol

Good thing if it works out that way as we really needed a slow year!
Morning all
A balmy 43f Here in Maryland
Forgot to mention...we actually had some real thick fog this morning. Haven't seen that for about a year.
1324. Patrap
..Patrap misses the snow emergency route signs in MAryland...lived in SAlsbury in the 80s some.Pretty fall up there.Good morning Stormin27
FYI...

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Cyclone 04A in the Arabian Sea. A nice shot of the system can be found here.

So far as I remember, Arabian Sea typhoons are infrequent, maybe once or twice every other year or so.
Rand, sent
i c TD2C finally died, really didnt use its favorable conditions wisely
OK Crab.
1329. Gatorx
Good morning all....I have meetings today so I can't stay long...Rand interesting models on the 96L.... two democrats (left) two republicans (right) and one independant (middle) lol see ya later.
Ok everyone have a nice morning the lawn mower is calling check back after while
1331. Patrap
Yagi powerful Typhoon...classic.
Yeah Patrap: though I love it in the south. Maryland has a little bit of it all, ocean, mountains, city, country. My favorite is the snow ive gotta confess. We should be due a big one soon. Happens every few years or so. LOve the noreasters.
1333. jake436
Posted By: Stormin27 at 1:01 PM GMT on September 21, 2006.

Morning all
A balmy 43f Here in Maryland


Jake has relatives in Tall Timbers, suburb of Piney Point, near Metropolis of Lexington. Vacation there every June.
1334. jake436
Posted By: Patrap at 12:56 PM GMT on September 21, 2006.

..very small..feature in the sw GOM...very ..er ..interesting


Post a picture of this disturbance with your new binocamera, Pat.lol
Jake know exactly where that is. bout 2 hrs from me thats just down the road from point lookout. I havent been there since i was a kid though. NIce area
1336. sarepa
guys 96l is way to south from the high so it will continue west or west north west
1337. jake436
Posted By: Stormin27 at 1:23 PM GMT on September 21, 2006.

Jake know exactly where that is. bout 2 hrs from me thats just down the road from point lookout. I havent been there since i was a kid though. NIce area


The wife's family has a cottage on the Potomac River. Every year we are treated to an awesome light show from the big T-storms at night. This year, we were there the week D.C. flooded, so there were plenty of storms to see, but not a total washout for us. We just watched Virginia get hammered across the river. Will try to post some lightning shots from summer '05. Sister in law got lucky with a couple of shots from her non binocamera.
1338. Patrap
..is going to Parish Border 3 blocks away..to Photograph I-wall levee between ST. Charles & Jefferson Parish...my new nemisis...Homes on our side...Lake Ponchatrain..on other..I-10..south of me
does any 1 see gordon now ?
1340. jake436
Posted By: Patrap at 1:30 PM GMT on September 21, 2006.

..is going to Parish Border 3 blocks away..to Photograph I-wall levee between ST. Charles & Jefferson Parish...my new nemisis...Homes on our side...Lake Ponchatrain..on other..I-10..south of me


Bring a pole and some fresh shrimp, and go to where the Parish line canal meets the lake. Should catch reds, at least sheepshead. I hear ya' been grilling salmon, lately.
Jake: That 4 days of rain kept me busy as hell. I worked in VA for two weeks because of that. Pumping 3 feet of water out of basements and drying home the first few days then it the rest of the time was pumping water doing mold remediations.
1344. Zaphod
Morning all.

Anybody see ANYTHING of interest in the GOM or Carribean? All I see spinning is a ULL still S of Cuba. Some popcorn here and there, but nothing with attitude.

Do you all read it differently?
Zap
WPBHurricane05 - you have email at your wunderground address from me. I'm trying to find a link to the NOAA October outlook map. I would appreciate any help you can afford.

Geoff
1346. Patrap
..Im going to the Parish line at West Esplande.. cause its closer..LOL..eta..0900...cst..Bringing Nova ..too
1347. ricderr
morning boys and girls...just a quick peek in...before i hit that road...you folks....enjoy your day..and pat..if you're still around.....what say those saints get their first loss monday?
1348. jake436
Posted By: StormW at 1:34 PM GMT on September 21, 2006.

Greetings gang!

Looks at AVN loop...sees 96L getting better organized...sees ULL to NW moving away, ventilating 96L...sees ridge building in north of 96L...discounts nothward motion at this time




If the blob at 10N 34W decides to be 96L's center, than I would agree with you Storm W.
1349. jake436
Posted By: ricderr at 1:41 PM GMT on September 21, 2006.

morning boys and girls...just a quick peek in...before i hit that road...you folks....enjoy your day..and pat..if you're still around.....what say those saints get their first loss monday?



That's just ugly...
Patrap: I havent been in your neck of the woods since a year before Katrina. I want to take the wife down and show her around. I used to get in there about once a month in a past life
no update today :(

My next update will be Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
good morning all

96L has still not consolidated a center. The Navy position of 12N is tracking an area of spin that is void of convection. It seems to be moving to the NW.
However, there is a blob of convection to its S on the 10N lat line that appears to be developing as a low center. Depending on which one wins will determine where 96L goes

The area near 12 with no convection is easy to see on the loop in the zoom setting
Link
TD06 please stop that

1365. jake436
Posted By: kmanislander at 1:54 PM GMT on September 21, 2006.

good morning all

96L has still not consolidated a center. The Navy position of 12N is tracking an area of spin that is void of convection. It seems to be moving to the NW.
However, there is a blob of convection to its S on the 10N lat line that appears to be developing as a low center. Depending on which one wins will determine where 96L goes

The area near 12 with no convection is easy to see on the loop in the zoom setting
Link


See my post at 1:41...I agree
Jake: No i dont mind at all. We own two companies one is a real estate appraisal firm and the other is a restoration companie (water, fire, mold). Needless to say the wife and I keep pretty busy.
whats bold ?
1372. jake436
Posted By: Stormin27 at 2:01 PM GMT on September 21, 2006.

Jake: No i dont mind at all. We own two companies one is a real estate appraisal firm and the other is a restoration companie (water, fire, mold). Needless to say the wife and I keep pretty busy.


My father used to own ServiceMaster Greater New Orleans in the 70's and 80's. Now I do something kinda like appraisal work as an INDEPENDENT insurance adjuster. (brave to admit adjuster while near Gulf Coast)...
Not tropics but it is weather.

Check out the central Colorado rockies forecast.
It's not unusual to get a dusting on the peaks in Sept but the high country has been getting pounded since last nite and is forecasted to to get lots more 'tween now and Sat. Hope this is a good sign for the upcomming ski season!
off to work
bb later
Is anything developing in the gulf?
TD06

I see you are controlling "bold" lol
Good Morning all

Rain rolling in from the GOM.....then another front. Autumn is upon us.

Hooray!
"Bold" is admitting you're an insurance adjuster on the Gulf coast. Or is that "foolish"?






I'm so confused....
stop it!!


1382. aghman
So, whats up with the tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea? I know that its not an unprecidented occurance, but I was wondering how often a cyclone forms there?
Mornin' IH27W.

Rain again in our neighborhood? When?
1385. jake436
Posted By: PensacolaDoug at 2:09 PM GMT on September 21, 2006.

"Bold" is admitting you're an insurance adjuster on the Gulf coast. Or is that "foolish"?


While we're in bold, I'll say again, INDEPENDENT!!!!! The more you get, the more I get paid!!!!!




I'm so confused....
Jake yeah I was kinda worried about saying I did mold and restoration. I hear the scam artists were out in full force in the gulf after Katrina. We had been asked by a company that is in florida to come to the gulf and help. We declined and they are in a worl of trouble now due to unscrupulous activity. I have a good amount of friends in MS, and contimplated heading down but just never did it.
Hi Doug.....I would give it several more days for Y'all. The front is in N. Texas....it will probably take a couple of days to get here.....but what do I know?

Sorry, I can't forecast, wishcast, or westcast....lol
Morning again y'all.

Just on a quick break. Keeping an eye on 96, but looks as if it should recurve at some point even if not right now...

Looking for some of the best weather sites on the web? Forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more-StormJunkie.com

Back to work. See y'all later
SJ
1393. snowboy
So it looks like a quiet day, with Helene stirring up the fish and 96L trying to coalesce around a center. Amazing that there's nothing doing in the GOM or Caribbean. Be thankful.
1394. jake436
Posted By: ihave27windows at 2:15 PM GMT on September 21, 2006.

Hi Doug.....I would give it several more days for Y'all. The front is in N. Texas....it will probably take a couple of days to get here.....but what do I know?

Sorry, I can't forecast, wishcast, or westcast....lol


So now we're "eastcasting"?
i wanna westcast...

i see 96L is now going west, should be near Jamaica next Friday
There's a new blog.

Jeff Masters
1397. jake436
Hey 27, visited your photos. Nice yard...love the sago palms. You really do have 27 windows...
See, what all of you don't realize is at the beginning of this season I put a hex on the Atlantic Basin. So I am directly responsible for the very slow hurricane season....Not Pres. Bush, like everyone thinks, it was me.

Now, you can all relax knowing that I am in complete control of the tropics....AND THAT IS WRITTEN IN STONE!