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Good news for the 2007 hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:09 PM GMT on January 22, 2007

There's plenty of hurricane-related news to report from last week's annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) in San Antonio, Texas. The best news is that the Air Force Hurricane Hunter C-130 aircraft are expected to get a major upgrade of their instrumentation for the 2007 season, thanks to $10.5 million in supplemental funding approved by Congress in December 2004. At least four Air Force C-130 aircraft will receive new Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) instruments. The first SFMR-equipped Air Force C-130 is scheduled to be on-line in June. The SFMR (or "Smurf") is able to directly measure the wind speed at the ocean surface. The instrument has been flown operationally by NOAA's two P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft since 1999, and has repeatedly provided crucial estimates of the landfall intensity of numerous hurricanes, particularly during the ferocious hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005. The SFMR works by studying the brightness of the surface at microwave wavelengths. Strong winds kick up sea spray that makes the ocean white with large foam patches. The amount of microwave energy seen by the instrument is proportional to the whiteness of the ocean surface, and therefore the wind speed. This measurement of the surface winds is far more accurate than trying to infer the surface winds from winds measured at flight level. For example, as Hurricane Katrina approached landfall in 2005, the winds measured at flight level (10,000 feet) stayed roughly constant, while the surface winds fell from Category 5 to Category 3 speeds as the hurricane weakened. The SFMR correctly diagnosed Katrina's sudden weakening at landfall, enabling NHC to issue more accurate advisories.

NOAA's two P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft have flown the SFMR instrument since the late 1980's, so we have a lot of calibration data that has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of these wind measurements. Comparison of SFMR winds with dropsonde and buoy measurements in hurricanes have shown that the SFMR winds are in error by less than 8 mph about 50% of the time. Thus, we can estimate the surface winds in a hurricane to an accuracy of about 10% using the SFMR.

The SFMR instrument requires about 10 seconds to make a measurement. At the typical flight speed of a C-130 or P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft, the winds are effectively averaged over about 1.5 km along the flight track. According to Uhlhorn and Black (2003), the SFMR instrument underestimates the winds in the right-rear quadrant of northern hemisphere storms. This occurs because the wind is aligned with the direction the waves propagate, resulting in building waves that do not produce very large foam patches in their wake after breaking.

Other hurricane news
Another piece of good news this hurricane season--both of NOAA's P-3 aircraft will both be available for hurricane duty. Last year, only one of these aircraft was available. A third P-3 is on order and due to be operational by 2009, but the latest budget has no money to crew the aircraft. There's other bad news to report on funding for hurricane research, which I'll report in a later blog.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks Doctor....it's always this stuff that bothers me the most.



Other hurricane news
Another piece of good news this hurricane season--both of NOAA's P-3 aircraft will both be available for hurricane duty. Last year, only one of these aircraft was available. A third P-3 is on order and due to be operational by 2009, but the latest budget has no money to crew the aircraft. There's other bad news to report on funding for hurricane research, which I'll report in a later blog.
Tons of recon!
Thanks Dr. Masters.Hey Randrewl
A third P-3 is on order and due to be operational by 2009, but the latest budget has no money to crew the aircraft. There's other bad news to report on funding for hurricane research, which I'll report in a later blog.

So wait.They're building a plane they can't afford to man?How stupid LOL
Hi Kris.
I'm just happy to have both....
he SFMR instrument underestimates the winds in the right-rear quadrant of northern hemisphere storms. This occurs because the wind is aligned with the direction the waves propagate, resulting in building waves that do not produce very large foam patches in their wake after breaking.


Does this mean it overestimates winds in the left-front quadrant?
Thanks Dr Masters so much lack of funding for these needs and others in our world.
how are you doing?
No offense,Randrewl,but are you saying something about us?
Whose TheMarshall...Aaron?
Satellite technology's getting better and better every year, there will be less need for the Hurricane Hunters soon.
hey Randrewl, thanks for posting these cryptic pieces of nonsense. I note that "TheMarshall" can't spell, and presumes to be the equivalent of the WU police force (even though I don't recall electing him..). Best strategy may be to challenge this, but if you plan to post more about this please take it off Dr. Masters' blog, ok.
I don't think recon will ever be completely replaced by satellites.
Nice argument there Randrewl...Condone you're own actions by the actions of someone else. It's a fallacy and doesnt hold water.

BTW, I agree Kris. Dvorak Technique is still +/- 1 SS scale catagory. Thats way too much of an error range, and I dont see it getting much better then that.
Dr.M Thanks for the update.
Nice argument there Randrewl...Condone you're own actions by the actions of someone else. It's a fallacy and not right.

Randrewl didn't do anything wrong by posting those comments.Snowboy overreacted.I'm not going to get in to a bickering match,so back to the weather for me.
I don't think that satellites can determine the steering currents as well as the HH planes can either.Do you know what I mean;the Gulfstream planes that fly around the storms.
SSTAs have dropped below 1C in almost all parts of the Nino 3.4 region in todays update,and some are below .5C!
nice blogs weatherboy chris... do u have any thoughts on number of storms for 2007?
anyone got any ideas on how up coming hurricane season will be? or how active?
I have an in-depth forecast in my archive...thanks
Hi again.
hi ryang
Kris you want snow!
great info kris. will look forward to feb 4 n 5 th updates
Thanks stomrhank!I want snow ryang.Why?
Check my blog and see.
LOL,that's funny Ryang
Good Morning/Afernoon Everyone
Hey everybody, Lets talk about weather the new 12UTC GFS has alot of rainfall for FLORIDA in the next TWO WEEKS with DISTURBANCES riding along the JETSTREAM!
The weekly ENSO update is out.Nino 3.4 anomalies are now just barely above El Nino threshold,at .6C. Neutral is Nino3.4 anomalies of -.5 to +.5.This will likely be the last update that has El Nino conditions for a while.Link
882MB how much rain?
Anyway,I noticed that too,882mb
hi TS2
Hi kris, at least the colts won last night
By the way I saw it looks like alot! an very active weather pattern!
I'm no Patriots fan,but I hate Peyton Manning
By the way I saw it looks like alot! an very active weather pattern!

I need some rain
By the way I saw it looks like alot! an very active weather pattern!

I need some rain
Ill be back later
alright
It's interesting to note that this mornings run of the GFS ensembles were indicating the U.S. will be back under a zonal flow by two weeksLink
Is anyone here?
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on Tropical Depression 07F (98P)



My local Weather station has has 0.7 inches of rain since July. Its been like that for not just Southern California but for all of the state as well. Most areas are reporting 40-50% of average. January is are second wetest month and downtown LA has had reported 0.02 inches of rain. This is very close to what happend a few years ago where they got a trace of rain. There is only one very slight chance of rain for the next 15 days out.

Everything is sounding like water restrictions o plenty down here with a higher water bill.
WOW.Mitch at full strength.


mitch
HadesGodWyvern~ You blew out the blog!!!

Thank's for update Dr Masters. This should improve the model runs overall, instead of waiting for the run with the NOAA P-3 info in it. Sounds like something happened to all that exciting funding hike...
Better than Wilma,it looked.
Skye,have you seen how much Nino3.4 anomalies dropped at the update?They're down to +.6C,just above the El Nino threshold.
I got the ENSO update up in my blog.
It took a dive last week.

& that Tim Roche picture is causing some exboyfiend flashbacks, lol.
Not him, he just looks like someone.

Wilma fo ya too!

wilma
I liked Mitch's bigger eye.
SomethingI've noticed about extremely strong storms in the West Carribean:Their outer bands tend to have a 'blob' appearance.
Also Rita!

rita
nice.I assume you have this link,but in case not Link
Nice Link.I did not have that link.
Early stages of Rita...







Under Rapid intensification...





Perfect overall structure...

Weatherboychris Here is a visible pic from NRL of Mitch at its peak intensity showing indeed a rather large eye...



One of my favorite pics of mitch...

thanks,see my blog
anyone on?
Hi TS2,see my blog
ok will do
This is on the subject of the current nontypical El Nio pattern. Remember the Day Fire? It started in Southern California on Labor Day September 4, 2006 and burned 162,702 acres. After nearly a month it was finally declared 100% contained on October 02.

Well it's been so dry in Southern California during this El Nio that the Day Fire is still smoldering (Ventura County Star 01/20/2007).

Today, the Day fire still burns in smoldering pockets and underground roots. Though the fire is contained, it could be some time before the flames die for good, smothered by rain or snow or lack of something else to consume.
I see you guys were talking about eyes and eyewalls
not eyewalls,just eyes.Did you get the link I posted?
No i don't think so
8:15 post,this blog
Oh that one yes i did sorry,im a bit slow today
not feeling too good
Its alright
Yello
Hello
ill be back later
It's interesting to note that the model that will probably verify best for JFM(the gray) is forecasting a La Nina for hurricane season.Link
Hi, anyone there?
Tropical Cyclone Zita 07F
14.4S 156.7W -- 35 knots 995 hPa

forecasted 10 min sustained winds in 24 hour is 45 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
=========================
Zita has undergone explosive development and formed a consolidated low level circulation center

the storm is moving east-southeast at 14 knots.


Joint Typhoon Warning Center


Tropical Cyclone Warning #1
============================
storm position 14.0S 157.1W

Tropical Cyclone 08P has 1 min sustained winds of 45 knots with wind gusts of 55 knots.
Hey again, Remember I was talking earlier about after this THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE on SUNDAY there is a SHORTWAVE OR LOW PRESSURE expected to develop in the CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO, well the GFS 12UTC had just MODERATE PRECIPITATION, WELL THE NEW 18UTC GFS HAS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE GOING RIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION!I SUGGEST YA TAKE A LOOK AND SEE WHAT I MEAN! AND ON THE OTHER NOTE IT IS STILL FORECASTING MORE WET AND STORMY PERIODS AHEAD!
I see...
132hr forecast
882,please see my blog regarding the differences between model runs
Hey I was just wondering if anyone is on tonight it seem really slow tonight.
If you take a close look at the LOOP you can see that it looks like it comes from the MEXICAN COASTLINE AND CROSSES OVER WHERE IT INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF!
82L Test? Giving the GDFL some exercise? Any input.
That's been there for months.The GFDL is supposed to be replaced this season by the HWRF,but Dr. Masters told me he thinks it will be late.
Not that it matters but this test was done today.
Not that it matters but this test was done today.


I saw the same test a month ago.They must have redone it.
Or how about last week, lol.
Anyway! Glad to see some new toys in the bag this year, could be an interesting one.
Yeah,we are just barely above El Nino thresholds now.Down to +.6C on this morning's update.
I've read about a short rebound in the coming months, for El Nino. All signs are down right now but, like last year, it can surprise you.
Nooooo.We can't be fooled.Forecasts never go wrong.:)
Kinda like tracking a Hurricane! May look NNW for a while then a little W then a little south. But, overall it is still going NW.
Yeah, right?Anyway,goodnight
00z GFS has a big cold front for South Florida in 348h with snow flurries in Cpae Canaveral and a possible freeze.Goodnight.
00z GFS has a big cold front for South Florida in 348h with snow flurries in Cpae Canaveral and a possible freeze.Goodnight.

Huh? Must be kidding, lol
Good Morning. I saw an interesting article on the web this morning, and I thought if any of you guys hadn't seen it yet, you might be interested...

For some reason, I can't post the link, but it's on MSNBC. regarding a world report coming out global warming.

First page, on the left side.

Have a good day!
Huh? Must be kidding, lol


No joke
El Nino is just .07 degreees above neutral!

noe
With no major temp advection,this looks like a subtropical cyclone to me.
Link
ok,maybe not Link
110. 882MB
I wonder what the NEW 12UTC GFS has for the storm! Its about to be realeased right now is out to 90 HOURS!
111. 882MB
Its now out to 120 HOURS and it shows an even STRONGER LOW PRESSURE HEADING INTO FLORIDA!
Lookingat the models,the effects will be much like a tropical storm,with sustained winds of apparently 40mph at landfall.
It's interesting that the COC will be colocated wit hthe strongest convection.
Good Morning Everyone,i see that Fl is going to get battered
A record high temperature set at Melbourne today...

A record high temperature of 86 degrees was set at Melbourne today,
breaking the old record of 85 set in 1954.
Good Morning Everyone,i see that Fl is going to get battered

probably cold core,but it will be like a TC in every other
It's amazing how - after 2004 and 2005 - that anyone would question funding for hurricane research.

I'm over in the Tampa Bay area and had an opportunity to visit with the meteorologists at NOAA's base at MacDill. WOW, those old P-3's - talk about workhorses! This was four years ago when I was over there and I'm sure they look even worse for the wear now. New P-3's would be nice for NOAA.
probably cold core,but it will be like a TC in every other

Yeah but Fl is still on its way for a battering. Whatever happened to the 'freeze' for S Fl
Yeah but Fl is still on its way for a battering. Whatever happened to the 'freeze' for S Fl


It was just one of those bad runs that we really shouldn't have jumped on in the first place.Credit to H23 for realizing that.
Well Done to H23,they should get more accurate models but they don't make mistakes that often.
NOAA MAKES OCEAN TEMPERATURE DATA AVAILABLE TO ALL
New NOAA Archive Gives Temperatures from International Satellites Since 1981

The CMC goes later & stronger with the FL squall, while the Nogaps doesn't think much of it til it gets up off the NE. Not seeing much model consensus.
The CMC goes later & stronger with the FL squall, while the Nogaps doesn't think much of it til it gets up off the NE. Not seeing much model consensus

The GFS doesn't have a squall line,it has a strengthening,symmetrical low pressure area with no temperature advection or baroclinc support(see what I'm getting at with that?)moving in to Florida on Sunday with max sustained winds near 40mph.
It's also interesting to note that the low is not slanting to the NW with height as is typical of cold core lows,but stays fairly vertically stacked up through 850mb,above which there is no discernible low or wind shift.
CMC and GFS develop a surface low with that system your talking about. As usual the CMC is the more agressive one, NoGaps doesn't see it. It would be nice, we could use the rain down here. Interesting to see if it all materializes but, the way things have gone this year I am not getting my hopes up for any significant rain event.
LOL, it wasn't just H23 realizing that, it wasn't just one bad run...ya'll gotta quit taking those models even remotely serious beyond 144hrs & even sooner without some consistancy. The gfs certainly doesn't write even tommarrows forecast in stone. You need consistinancy between several models, sometimes it best to throw them out & look at the observations, currents & whats coming down the pipe next.
I mean in terms of isobar placement and rain field.
Looking at the 850 vorticity there is nothing round or warm about.
And besides,that's the 06z run.
THIS AFTERNOON
North winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet and higher in the gulf stream. A slight chance of showers.

TONIGHT
North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of light rain.
WEDNESDAY
North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. A chance of showers.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
North winds 15 to 20 knots...then becoming northwest 20 knots before daybreak. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers likely.

THURSDAY
Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. chance of showers.

THURSDAY NIGHT
North winds 20 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet.

FRIDAY
Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet.

SATURDAY
Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. $$


The GFS doesn't have a squall line,it has a strengthening,symmetrical low pressure area with no temperature advection or baroclinc support(see what I'm getting at with that?)moving in to Florida on Sunday with max sustained winds near 40mph.

Ha! Woulden't that be interesting as we get closer to Neutral. Release the hounds, lol.
Link
Once again,that's the 06z run.But here's the 12z run at 850mb.It's not completely closed off,but it is vertically stacked with the LLC.
All the models are getting people confused
We're already at neutral.Nino3.4 anomalies(which define an El Nino),were only +.07C above neutral thresholds yesterday.Today,this came out,showing a new area of negative anomalies have formed in that region.Link
These have almost certainly pushed it down .07C,and back to neutral.
Well it should take more than one run of one model to convince... The local sounded hopeful for maybe some rain event come sunday, it's not out of the question.
Most people 'jump the gun' with the models cause when they see a GFS Model or some other kind of model forecasting a strong storm they all go mad and then the storm doesn't come.
be back later
I want a good strong storm, something like Feb 27, 2005 :)
So do i
or at least something to make the winter more interesting
I'd even take days of gentle soaking rain at this point.
Make it a storm with some snow or colder weather in it
Make it a storm that has snow in it or colder weather
Seen Zita this morning? 55kts.

well that was weird
Now if we could just get a strong storm like that on Sunday night, and get it to phase with a 1985-style arctic outbreak :)
Zita
93P might get a name soon too. Seems the SH other than a few early storms is having a slow start.
Around 30kts 1000mb probelly stronger than that now cause that was recorded 12hrs ago
Around 30kts 1000mb probelly stronger than that now cause that was recorded 12hrs ago
Good afternoon guys,

Taking a look at zita and wow what an ugly looking tropical cyclone but winds are at 55kts with futher intensification possible.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
good Afternoon 23
On the 12z GFS it looks a disturbance might develope in the GOM and move across northern florida in the coming days.Overall rain seems likely for florida in the coming days.

114hrs


120hrs
I wish it was filled with snow
The GFS has indeed lost its mine...I doupt it will get that cold.

Colder but not freezing Cold like in the Artic
161. V26R
Any guesses where that storm is going to head after FLA Adrian?
A a cool down for south florida is indeed coming but no artic air down here.Temps in the 50's maybe for a night or two with a quick rebound probably instored.
Posted By: V26R at 1:50 PM EST on January 23, 2007.

Any guesses where that storm is going to head after FLA Adrian?

Hey V26R whats up?

Well on the 12z run from the GFS it has it basically moving into northern florida and then moving NE out into the atlantic.
On a Short Range MOS there is rain heading for your area V26R. Never trust a model though.
165. V26R
Not much, finally off duty for a few days!!!
Hoping for a snow free winter up here, but from what you're saying, think I gotta check out the snow blower just in case!!!
166. V26R
Hope that it is rain Storm, but we've been getting snow squalls for the past few days
and its been super cold here ( and Im on the coast!!!)
167. V26R
WOW Just looked at the latest NOGAPS run and its showing a 968mb low off of Nova Scotia for the weekend Hope this thing bombs out like NOGAPS says, We'll be in trouble if that monster forms near NYC!
Hope that it is rain Storm, but we've been getting snow squalls for the past few days
and its been super cold here ( and Im on the coast!!!)


It is definite rain with about 0.50 inches forecast to fall where you are. Keep in mind that is not much but it will give you a break from the snow (if the rain comes that is)
If the GFS is correct this storm will indeed move NE out to sea and not affect your area V26R.But stay tuned as things may change.

I highly doupt this will end up being anywere close to being tropical as very unfavorable conditions dominate the atlantic basin.

170. V26R
I'll take a half inch of rain any day over
5 inches of snow! And I used to like snow!
Think Im getting old
I higly doupt this will end up being anywere close to being tropical as very unfavorable conditions dominate the atlantic basin.

anything that moves into the Atlantic will get destroyed before you could say Cyclone
172. V26R
Gotta run out to Pick up the Munchkin, talk to you Gents Later (Stay Safe!)
TTFN
Posted By: Thunderstorm2 at 2:08 PM EST on January 23, 2007.

I higly doupt this will end up being anywere close to being tropical as very unfavorable conditions dominate the atlantic basin.

anything that moves into the Atlantic will get destroyed before you could say Cyclone.

Sounds good to me.Nothing to worry about for a couple of months.
Look at that HUGE area of high pressure south of the UK
When we get nearer to HS around the start of May we should see them unfavourable conditions start to improve and you never know we could have a early storm to watch come that time
wind shear is runging a round from any where from 30 to 80kt but i think wind shear may be lower then what we been seeing in the pass when wind shear was like a round 50 to 90kt they are now runing any where from 30 to 80kt

lol

i see a 987mb low on the map
lol

lot of 80s in the Caribbean with some 80s starting to show up in the gulf
lol
Those temps are likely to come down if indeed we get some coldfronts pushing into the GOM in the coming weeks.
ZITA winds down to 50kt from 55kt and 93B is up
Overall structure on 93B looks decent.


why is it so dry overe her ca? we need rain


we are olny at 47% for are snow fall in the mt on what we sould be
Posted By: hurricane23 at 1:05 PM CST on January 23, 2007.

If the GFS is correct this storm will indeed move NE out to sea and not affect your area V26R.But stay tuned as things may change.

I highly doupt this will end up being anywere close to being tropical as very unfavorable conditions dominate the atlantic basin.


Correct:

All I meant was,it will have effects like a minimal TC/TS.
Why not have a day of the week on which there is no driving allowed except by emergency personnel?It would be simple and relatively easy to enforce
hey why not send some rain my way
Sigh....
Unisys 10day GFSx..Link
hi everyone
hi how is everybody?
93B...Invest Link
ENjoying a rest.Hows you?
alright thanks
lol CB
93B looks good
I don't know if anyone else noticed,but we now have negative SSTA
in the Nino3.4 region for the first time in months.Link.Also,a large area of subsurface SSt anomalies,some between -4 and -5 C,are quickly apporaching the surface.Link
La Nina on its way?

There is a lot less convection in Zita than there was earlier in the day.
weatherboykris what dos that mean???
I think it means that the sea is alot colder than it was
no i think it means La Nina
ok for the first time ever I clicked I like on a post by cyclonebuster
I would say that a La Nina is almost a given based on that animation.
no i think it means La Nina

Not quite yet
ok for the first time ever I clicked I like on a post by cyclonebuster

Which one was that
run for the hills

i think we may see more then 14 name storm this year when dos the next hurricane forcast come out
I think it means La Nina,defintiely.We're already cooling off much faster than any models predicted.Just look at that subsurface animation.Unless that water warms,we'll be in a La Nina in a month.
Mine comes out on Febuary 4,TSR's comes out on the 5th,and Klotzbach's(formerly Gray's,gotta get used to that) comes out on April 4th.
run for your lives we may see some in more like we had in 2005
Perhaps La Nina will dissipate by the time hurricane season starts or peaks (the ENSO cycle seems to have gone out of whack lately, with El Nino/La Nina episodes lasting for only a few months and cycling in a year or so instead of the more normal 2-7 years).

mid 2004 to early 2005: El Nino
late 2005 to early 2006: La Nina
mid-late 2006 to early 2007: El Nino
early-mid 2007 to ?: La Nina?
it will be interesting to see what yours kris and the rest of them will have to say now that La Nina is nearly Underway
Perhaps La Nina will dissipate by the time hurricane season starts or peaks (the ENSO cycle seems to have gone out of whack lately, with El Nino/La Nina episodes lasting for only a few months and cycling in a year or so instead of the more normal 2-7 years).


I was thinking that too,STL.Things seem to be cycling faster lately.
I was thinking that too,STL.Things seem to be cycling faster lately.

any ideas why?
I can't wait for Klotzbach to update the county-by-county landfall probabilities.
Maybe there is a larger cycle within the cycle that dictates how fast the it goes.I'll look at the record and see.
Like a clock,kris?
Where did you get that CB
Alright,I just checked this out,and noticed something.Link
Long lived events,tend to be followed by more long lived events,and short lived events tend to be followed by more short lived events until the pattern(if there is one,which I'm starting to think there is)switches back to long events.Just an observation.
For example,the long 1954 La Nina was followed by a long El Nino.
great show on hurricane hunters on discovery hd right now
And looking at that chart,I don't get why everyone says it cycles in 2-7 years.Does anyone see a 2-7 year period of neutral conditions?
i think we may see more then 28 storm this year may be 30 name storms this year that be cool
Look at this heat content!noe
If we had that in the Atlantic...
And looking at that chart,I don't get why everyone says it cycles in 2-7 years.Does anyone see a 2-7 year period of neutral conditions?

I certainly don't unless other people are blind or we're missing something
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 3:48 PM CST on January 23, 2007. (hide)
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Human-caused global warming is here -- visible in the air, water and melting ice -- and is destined to get much worse in the future, an authoritative global scientific report will warn next week.


This is a time when I agree with something that you posted. It is already happening and will only get worse, but how much worse depends on what we do now - and tunnels have no part in it.
This segment, written by more than 600 scientists and reviewed by another 600 experts and edited by bureaucrats from 154 countries, includes "a significantly expanded discussion of observation on the climate," said co-chair Susan Solomon a senior scientist for the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

What do bureaucrats know about editing a climate report?
anyone here?
i am her
I'll be back later
no,must be "log off because CB is spamming the blog"time. LOL,but seriously,I'll be back later
just joking
I meant you kept reposting individual parts of your first post about that report.Nothing wrong with that,though
We can't intentionally control the weather.
Whenever I scroll down to see the latest posts and see a cluster of hidden comments like that, I don't even need to look at the handle because I always know who it is, lol!
Is anyone here
So I see some of you'll think La Nino may be on the way. Do you think it might be like a 2005 year? But I'm just wondering if El Nino could come in to the equation like last year cause they didn't even know about it. Could that happen agian?
There is no evidence to support an Overactive Hurricane season at this time.
Evening all,

Ya'll looking at pics of Mitch and Rita - there is a fantastic colour shot of Mitch which I have around somewhere, probably from the same pass 23 posted earlier. If I find it, I'll try posting it.
Patrap that's what I was wondering.cause i see where some people are saying yeah it's gonna be bad. But I'm still just trying to figure all this stuff out. I just really like reading and watching the talk and all about hurricanes.
Here is Mitch from NOAA's website - they have a special section dedicated to Mitch.



Hurricane Mitch 1998
Pretty nice blog going here.
I can remember at the start of hurricane season last year everyone though that it would be another active season. That Blew up in our faces. Even the experts so I will wait to see what they all say before I make my judgement.
I can remember a certain someone also say that it would be active. HHMM they were wrong.

May it be another season of ULL's.
True they helped us last year not globally but everything goes in cycles. Who is to say that it will not happen again this year?

No one. Who thought that there would be so many ULL's last year. No one. To early to say what this season maybe. Everyone needs to wait and see. El Nino came out of no where who's to say that this could be the year that is a below average year?
If u have been looking at the imagery of Mitch, you may also be interested in this B&W loop of Mitch's eye from Colorado State.
Looks like I missed all the hurricane season discussion.
Posted By: naplesfl at 7:54 AM GMT on October 24, 2005.

The eye is now about 30 miles from Marco and it's getting rougher out. The wind is starting to howl around the building and the power is flickering. As soon as the power goes, I'll move to my safe room.
The latest report is that the max winds are up to 120 mph and the radio is reporting some building damage in Cape Coral.

Has anyone seen him since then?...No joke,seriously.
hey CB
how you doing?
Have you seen naplesfl since he wrote what I posted above?
I'm just saying,if no one has seen him since then...And I'm not joking or trying to be funny,I'm serious.
weird.Maybe he/she rejoined with a different handle.
A quick Wikipedia search shows no apparent deaths in the Naples area.
There was 8 deaths in that area, here's their stories. Most didn't actually die during the storm. & I'm pretty sure we've heard from naplesfl since, more of a seasonal visitor.
I don't think it is something serious; there are thousands of blogs with only one entry (just look in the blog index by handle, which is where I assume you came across the aforementioned person; these kind of blogs peeve me; what is the point of making just one blog and then running off?). Actually, I am surprised that you even came across that blog, since I doubt that many people look in the blog index beyond the updated list.
I think naplesfl more hangs out in this blog when something threatens. Just made a blog for a direct hit. Alot of people we didn't hear from for a while after Wilma, between power loss & forced relocations. There was someone that showed up during last season that was still on the missing list from Katrina, just didn't think to check in after the year of upheaval that followed.
I don't think it is something serious; there are thousands of blogs with only one entry (just look in the blog index by handle, which is where I assume you came across the aforementioned person; these kind of blogs peeve me; what is the point of making just one blog and then running off?). Actually, I am surprised that you even came across that blog, since I doubt that many people look in the blog index beyond the updated list.

I was bored.But I agree,why make just one blog entry?Pottery has none,although at least he leaves comments at other blogs.
There was someone that showed up during last season that was still on the missing list from Katrina, just didn't think to check in after the year of upheaval that followed.

wow
Skye+?
StL?

Comforting to see the names here....
I think Skye is right; this blog is a lot more active during hurricane season, to the point where the comment limit that is still in place for regular blogs had to be removed because it ran out of space (LOL), even with frequent updates.
Hey aquak:)

It was NoMoFilm1 that showed up this last summer, I think Lefty & storm Junkie were in, we about freaked. I guess I should tell Damon so he can up date the list. Down to one.
I remember that.I lurked all season,so I saw everything that happened from basically May on.
i have a ? for evere one

Link
I had about 5 palm trees killed and 1 pool cage killed by wima...and charley.

Let's hope some cool air gets to the gulf soon. The water is almost 80 in Jan.....not cool.
ok StL..I gotta correct you on this, and I think Skye will back me up. The Good Dr.Master's blog can handle anything-- it is the entry point for all the newbies- and yes it can become overloaded once Season starts. BUT...Aaron is wise. He knows how to shift gears, he knows who is online..we can get folks into the blogs they need to be in...he can direct people (geographically) to where they need to be safe.
There's a reason it's called Weather Underground...
ok StL..I gotta correct you on this, and I think Skye will back me up. The Good Dr.Master's blog can handle anything-- it is the entry point for all the newbies- and yes it can become overloaded once Season starts. BUT...Aaron is wise. He knows how to shift gears, he knows who is online..we can get folks into the blogs they need to be in...he can direct people (geographically) to where they need to be safe.
There's a reason it's called Weather Underground...


They call it the WU as a reference to the 1960s militant group based at UM.
I am not sure if I understand what your post is referring to; my last comment or something else?
hey all any one see my link i have a ? for evere one see my link for more
I think this STL:


I think Skye is right; this blog is a lot more active during hurricane season, to the point where the comment limit that is still in place for regular blogs had to be removed because it ran out of space (LOL), even with frequent updates.
That's why Aaron is our Benevolent Dictator.

Taz~ I saw & answered.

It's near midnight here, tommarrow ya'll.
maybe by july the water will be 95
Oh & I hear ya Buhdog, looks like cooler air maybe on the way. Better late then never.
midnight on the eastern time zone,I'm out too.Goodnight everyone
Sorry StL...not that you pay attention to ANY of my posts but my last post was not meant to be in a derrogatory nature to you...
The Good Dr.Master's blog, as far as I can see, is the bastion of weatherkeeping. For the little-minded, it is not the place to call home. Many, many folk watch Dr.Master's blog. We know who lives where; we know who has family where. Somehow, we always take care of each other---but we move it OUT OF THE GOOD DR.'S BLOG.

StL...you weren't with us for the Season. You did not cry and pray with us.
You don't understand what this place is...(just because you have a blog party, does not reciprocate the pain) StL....

You'll understand when you are older. Like maybe 58.

Aqua out.
thanks sky


where is are aron any one see him in the past 42days
skye?

no mo film was the last one. Contact Damon. NoMoFilm's pics...he had nearly 200 before and after pics...standing in the same spot...so frightening...

Skye+♥
Sorry StL...not that you pay attention to ANY of my posts but my last post was not meant to be in a derrogatory nature to you...
The Good Dr.Master's blog, as far as I can see, is the bastion of weatherkeeping. For the little-minded, it is not the place to call home. Many, many folk watch Dr.Master's blog. We know who lives where; we know who has family where. Somehow, we always take care of each other---but we move it OUT OF THE GOOD DR.'S BLOG.

StL...you weren't with us for the Season. You did not cry and pray with us.
You don't understand what this place is...(just because you have a blog party, does not reciprocate the pain) StL....

You'll understand when you are older. Like maybe 58.

Aqua out.


Aqua,that post made absolutely no sense.Goodnight
And before you say I'm young and naive,or something like that,please note that it doesn't make no sense because I don't want to agree with you,it makes no sense form the point of:A little explanation please.
I didn't say anything at all related to that, just making an observation of how much more active this blog is during hurricane season, even when nobody is being threatened... like hurricanes are the only weather threats... rolling eyes (many others have wondered why it has been so quiet lately when there is IMO plenty of things going on, such as an ice/winter storm that was as deadly/damaging as a pretty bad hurricane, although not on the scale of Katrina, but still worse than most storms).
Weather boy kris, I type slow so just give me a sec, ok
weatherboykris...your posts are actually pretty concise and to-the point. I'd like to see you here during the Season. But SO many folk disappear when things start to get hairy. WBK(weatherboykris) My last post was not meant to you.

Now YOU...Mr. StL...you are a very good met-in-training...and you also have some great skills on the net. BUT...you have never been here for anyone who had scary weather in a different zipcode than yours. You only care about the weather over your roof. I have been saying this for the past 5 months, and everyone agrees with me. WE are a community, and you seem to choose to slice yourself away from it.
StL- we have worried over you. You have worried over no one.
You only care about the weather over your roof.

You have worried over no one.

NOW THIS IS UNFORGIVABLE!!! THIS MAKES ME SICK!
And there's my point. StL...are you afraid of your skills? Do you think you can't handle a Season?
Read your mail, StL. Copy and paste it for everyone to see. I fear no repercussions.

We want and need (and encourage) all the good mets we can get.
now now evere one play nic
well since StL is not accepting mail, here it is, for everyone to see:

You are probably one of the best we have right now. Lefty is gone. Stormtop is gone. A new season is just around the corner....and all we have is RandrewL. Or whatever he calls himself. He is good, but we need more. I have tried and tried to get you to realize how good you are...but you disappear on us. MICHAEL!!!! I am not trying to make you sick!! I want you to step up to the plate...take the chance...you KNOW your meteorology...create a fake name if you have to but be there for us on the coast!!!

I have always complimented you on your expertise. Show it. Flow it. You are good.
Nice new hidden blog there, StL...but guess what. I am still old school. I can still deal with total up-frontness and honesty. Go ahead and post all the anger you want....

...and when you get bored, build a scaffold. Come up to the high road. It's where you oughtta be. Cause many of us believe...you deserve it.
Just for the record? StL slammed me. Too bad, cause I have always been a supporter of him. He'll delete the post, but it's on Rays blog, and the Queen's blog as well.

Ya'll be careful out there...
dr m you have mail good night


oh would you two stop fighting
I am not fighting, Taz. I have only tried to encourage StL to be the best he could be. I have made public all of my correspondence with him.

He oughtta believe in himself. We believe in him...why can't he???
331. IKE
Most people view this as a hurricane blog.

The fighting that goes on in here...jeez.....

This from this mornings Jackson, Mississippi discussionn....

"


104
fxus64 kjan 240918
afdjan


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
318 am CST Wednesday Jan 24 2007


Short term...(today through thursday)
latest satellite imagery showed the split flow pattern over the
Continental U.S....with an active southern stream of mostly middle to high clouds
with a series of embedded disturbances moving toward the region from
the southwest around a cut off low over northwest Mexico. On the
surface a 1025 mb high was centered in East Texas. Also a weak surface
low was developing over the western Gulf. Area radars were
picking up some patchy very light rain/sprinkles from an upper
disturbance moving across the region.


Isentropic lift at the 300-305 level(precip water .70 to near 1
inch) will continue for mainly this morning across mainly the
south...before it gets pushed south during the afternoon. We will be
in the right entrance region of an upper jet...which may enhance the
isentropic lift for this morning. Still expect rainfall amounts to
be rather light. With the snow/ice pack issues to the northwest and the
clouds moving overhead...have cut todays highs around 2 categories
from guidance. Yesterdays highs went about 2 categories below
guidance. So will go for highs from the lower to upper 40s.


For tonight into Thursday models try to clear out the clouds...thus
have warm highs for Thursday. With this current upper pattern will
keep the clouds around for the remainder of the short term period.
So will make an adjustment to tonights lows and will go 2 categories
below guidance for thursdays highs. Tonights lows will range from
the lower to middle 30s. Highs for Thursday will be from the middle 40s
north to the lower 50s south. Expect dry weather for the remainder of
the period. Models have the weak surface low pushing farther
south...which will keep the light rain away from the region. Meanwhile
a large upper trough over the eastern Continental U.S. Will keep the region
under cool northwest flow aloft.


As far as probability of precipitation are concern did not stray far from guidance. /17/


Long term...the extended forecast looks to a quiet one for the most
part. Medium range models agree that colder air is on the way. Both
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) continue to show the polar vortex setting up over
the Hudson Bay region late next week with cold air streaming south
out of the Arctic. As has been the case...with good agreement b/T
the models I will base the forecast for the most part off of the GFS.
Confidence is still not very high but is increasing as the models
continue to show a cool down beginning early next week.


Thursday night through Sat morning...high pressure will remain in control
Thursday night and Friday morning before pushing off to the east Friday
evening. With clear skies...drier air and high pressure at the surface
right over the County Warning Area...Friday morning looks to be the coldest morning we
have seen since around Jan 10th. The northestern half of the County Warning Area will drop
into the 20s with the northestern 3rd in the middle 20s. During the day Friday
The Cutoff low over the SW will begin to eject to the NE but will
not likely begin to affect the region until Friday night. As for highs
Friday...ll temperatures will increase through the day and with clear skies
temperatures look to rise in the 50s once again. Clouds will be on the
increase as the upper low moves into the Southern Plains. That said
moisture will be slow to increase as the overall subtropical fetch
from the Pacific will not be great and there looks to be a wedge of
high pressure across our County Warning Area not allowing dewpoints to really
increase.


On Sat the upper low will open up and move through the lower MS
River Valley. At the same time a surface wave will develop along the
old boundary in the northern Gulf. Moisture should overrun the boundary south
of the area but the precipitable waters still look to be less than an inch. There
will be isentropic lift b/T 295 and 310k levels and this should
allow light rain to develop around midday over most of the area. The
best chance for rain will be across the south closer to the boundary.


Sun and Monday the upper pattern will flatten out while high pressure
at the surface will work into the region. This will be a Canadian
airmass bringing with it much cooler and drier conditions to the
area. By Monday morning the surface high will centered just to our west.
This will be a pretty good airmass so lows Monday morning could be the
coldest temperatures we have seen this month. Lows will be in the 20s just
about everywhere with the northestern 3rd dropping into the middle and maybe
lower 20s. Gui has dropped consistently over the past few days and
this run looks pretty good so I will only make adjustments to lower
the usual cold sites. Sun and Monday should remain dry so I have
lowered gui probability of precipitation to keep any mention of rain out of the forecast.


Tuesday and into the middle of next week one cold front after another
will move through the region. The first cold front will approach the
area Tuesday as the next disturbance moves twrds the lower and middle MS
River Valley. There will be a chance of precipitation with this
disturbance. I say precipitation b/c there is the possibility that temperatures
could remain cold enough to see flurries or even light snow across
the north. Forecast soundings across the north definitely show snow
production with the clouds well into the dendritic layer and the
entire sndg remaining below freezing until about 6-900 feet above ground level.
Latest mex does warm the north to above 40 and this would pretty much
melt everything especially since we are not expecting heavy precipitation.
That said with clouds increasing we may not warm up as much as gui
is predicting and this would allow some very light snow across the
north. Something to note though is that the GFS has showed the
opportunity for very light snow off and on for the Tuesday time frame.
Due to this shifting and the fact that even this solution is on the
fence I will hold off on adding flurries or -sn right now. As for
the rest of the week both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) continue to show a broad
lw trough developing over much of na with very cold air surging
south through Canada. This cold air will continue into the Continental U.S. But
how far south it makes it is a serious question. The upper pattern
is actually quite flat over our region and this could cause the real
cold air to slide east of the area. Now if this airmass is able to
push far enough south then we could see some of the coldest temperatures we
have seen since we hit middle and upper teens in early Dec or even
colder than that. Either way we will still see much colder temperatures
next week and possibly well into Feb. /Cab/"



My .02 cents.
There are alot of people that only m ake one entry some make no blogs of there own. Just stay in Dr.Master's never wander.

Dr.Masters blog is no different then last winter. During the winter months it always slows down. Now during a storm it gets cranking.

many of worry about people in Harm's way. Most don't hust worry about there area. We will jump in to be there as a Comfort for those. ASk Emmy. I rode out Rita with her on the phone on the Interstate. A ride that should have taken here I believe a little more then an hour took her 16 hours. We all care.
We may not know what we are talking about fully but we try to help when and how we can.
Aqau has shown great strength over the last month being right with Rand and a few others during the storms that just went through the North and Western Gulf.

The point is we Come together when needed and are there. Not just for our own areas.

Sorry Dr.Master's.
Heres the scoop of the week,month..year.Our Country has failed New Orleans and the Greater Miss Gulf Coasat.NOT 1 word of mention about the recovery and its woes .The Nations largest Natural Disaster in its History gets not 1 word from the President.Im shocked..but not surprised.He stood in Jackson Square Sept 15th 05 and told the World that the region would be made Whole.My deadline for leaving My FEMA trailer is now March 31st.What do we do?..Where do we go.No housing ..no rooms at the Inn...Im ashamed as a former American Fighting man.I watched him fly over and away from New Orleans Sept 2nd..after the storm while we struggled in the water.I have yet to quit struggling...as many here try to rebuild our lives.But last night was a Puppet show for the Masses.A last gasp from a failed Presidency.I know many dont want to hear about our continued woes here.But many listen with Baited breath..of how we can Win in Iraq..last night.How can we save Baghdad..and let a whole National region..go the way of ruin.Its a sad day..and many should look deep within their Congressional rolodexes..and voice Your Opinion..on this Travesty .
As far as the Main Blog here goes.MAny think the world waits for there every post.Many here dont have a clue as to why we Blog.Its just there way of thinking they contribute.Its a one-upmanship forum.Thats why this H season.We ..the core members of WUBA...will blog from Specific Blogs..not the Main..during storm events.That way we can control the flows and BS.The Main is "not" the Place to disemminate Practical info in an Emergency Event.ie.landfalling Hurricanes.We dont need 12 posts of a new Advisory.We dont need Banter between Brawn.The masses need good insight and proper real-time info..not Chaos.So..Im looking forward to the challenge of a New Season..but that is many months out.So..those who think the Main is a forum for Egos and one-upmanship.Have at it.At the end of the day..its about PEOPLE..not facts..or invests or Hey..Im smarter than you!Thats all Ive got.Deal with it.Have a good day.
Thats why this H season.We ..the core members of WUBA...will blog from Specific Blogs..not the Main..during storm events.That way we can control the flows and BS.The Main is "not" the Place to disemminate Practical info in an Emergency Event.ie.landfalling Hurricanes.We dont need 12 posts of a new Advisory.We dont need Banter between Brawn.The masses need good insight and proper real-time info..not Chaos.


Bravo Pat.....That is exactly what we will do.
This is one of the reasons even during threatening ice storms and tornadic events in January that the Dr's blog was still quiet.
It is just not the place any more for current, life saving information.
Boring and getting old.
Rain.
hurricanes keep the jelly fish away
some interesting comments here in the last couple of hours........
speaking of the weather, for the first time since june 06, there isnt a cloud between me and Africa. Dryseason is here big time !
Your post relate yer IQ..very low brow indeed..LMAO!
For those that are interested, I dont have my own blog enteries because I realy cant compete weather-wise with some of you here. So I look and try to learn. I'm not studying met. sciences or anything grand, and although some of the blogs are pretty irrelevant to weather, I still enjoy most of them. Keep the general blog interesting, there is a lot going on here.
Dont bother yourself with the rectums of the world, Pat......
I know Pottery..this one is Known.But I wont out him here.I like um to bury themselves publicly.Now Ive got the Blog a Hopping.LOL
Good morning everyone,

No need to worry about cane season across the atlantic basin for now as we still got a good 3-4 months before we actually have our first invest.For now iam waiting on a couple of cool nights ahead for south florida as temps will dip into the mid to low 50's over night with hi temps in the low 70's.
Morning 23. Time for a blanket in Florida ? Enjoy it !


Pat, I read the Address by mr. bush too. I'm not impressed either. Where have all the leaders gone ? We need one here bad !!!!
It dropped down to 71 here early this morning. Freezing man !!!!!!
Yea its been a very mild winter down here across south florida with only one really significant cold that dropped our temps into the mid 40's that was about 4-6 weeks ago if iam correct.We really need some cold fronts to push into the GOM to cool of SST'S across parts of the basin.I expect it will take place once we get into the first have of next month.