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Gonzalo the Atlantic's First Category 4 Hurricane Since 2011; Ana Takes Aim at Hawaii

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:30 PM GMT on October 15, 2014

A Hurricane Watch is up for Bermuda as Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Gonzalo aims its 130 mph winds towards the island. Gonzalo is the Atlantic's first Category 4 hurricane since October 2, 2011, when Hurricane Ophelia reached 140 mph winds. Gonzalo walloped the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands on Monday into Tuesday morning while rapidly intensifying from a tropical storm to a strong Category 1 hurricane. One person was killed on St. Maarten, and two others were missing--one in St. Martin and one in St. Barths, according to The Daily Herald. Twelve people were injured in Antigua.


Figure 1. People clear trees from the road in the aftermath of Hurricane Gonzalo on October 14, 2014 on the French Caribbean island of Saint Martin. Photo credit: STRINGER/AFP/Getty Images.

Forecast for Gonzalo
Data from an Air Force hurricane hunter mission and satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed that Gonzalo had a tiny 6-mile diameter inner eye, with a concentric 28-mile diameter outer eyewall forming. The inner eyewall will likely collapse by Wednesday evening and the outer eyewall will take over as the main eyewall in an eyewall replacement cycle. This process should halt intensification, and possibly reduce Gonzalo to Category 3 status by Wednesday evening. But with wind shear a light 5 - 10 knots and warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) near 29°C (84°F), Gonzalo should be able to stay a major hurricane into Thursday. If Gonzalo is able to complete its eyewall replacement cycle quickly, the hurricane could re-intensify some and be a Category 4 storm into Friday morning. It is more likely, though that Gonzalo reached its peak lifetime intensity at 11 am EDT Wednesday, as the official NHC forecast indicates. Water vapor satellite loops show some dry air getting wrapped into the storm, which will interfere with intensification. The 8 am Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that by Friday morning, when Gonzalo will make its closest pass by Bermuda, wind shear would increase to 10 - 15 knots and SSTs would cool to 27°C (81°F.) This should discourage intensification, and may drive steady weakening. The models have come into better agreement on the track of Gonzalo, with our two top track models, the GFS and European, predicting in their 00Z Wednesday runs that the hurricane would pass 50 - 100 miles west of Bermuda between 8 am - 2 pm EDT Friday. At that time, hurricane-force winds should extend outwards about 35 - 45 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds should extend 160 - 170 miles from the center. Thus, Bermuda is likely to see tropical storm-force winds, but not hurricane-force winds. In their 11 am EDT Wednesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave Bermuda a 94% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, and a 37% chance of hurricane-force winds of 74+ mph. Keep in mind that the average error in a 2-day NHC Atlantic track forecast between 2008 - 2012 was 90 miles.

Gonzalo is also a threat to Newfoundland, Canada; the GFS and European models predicted in their 00Z Wednesday runs that Gonzalo would hit Newfoundland between 8 - 11 pm EDT Saturday. In their 11 am EDT Wednesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave Cape Race, Newfoundland a 55% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds, and a 7% chance of hurricane-force winds.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Ana taken at approximately 7 pm EDT October 14, 2014. At the time, Ana had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Ana takes aim at Hawaii
Tropical Storm Ana was at the verge of hurricane status at 11 am EDT Wednesday, and represents a potential serious rain, wind, and storm surge threat to the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. Satellite loops show that Ana has a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds, characteristic of an intensifying tropical storm close to reaching hurricane status. Wind shear is light, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are warm, 28°C (82°F), which is about 1°F above average. The 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would be light, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperature would be warm, 27.5 - 28°C (81 - 82°F) for the next three days along Ana's path, and gave a 26% chance that the storm would intensify by 35 mph into a Category 2 hurricane by Thursday morning. Our top two models for predicting hurricane tracks, the GFS and European models, both show Ana passing very close to the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday morning, and it is possible that the island could experience tropical storm conditions for the second time this year. In their 11 am EDT Wednesday Wind Probability Forecast, Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) gave Kailua-Kona on the Big Island a 60% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds, and a 9% chance of hurricane-force winds. Honolulu was given a 44% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds, and a 4% chance of hurricane-force winds. The average error in a 3-day NHC Eastern Pacific track forecast between 2008 - 2012 was 117 miles, and the 2-day error was 82 miles. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center, which is making the forecasts for Ana, does not post its error numbers, but they are probably similar. Steering currents are expected to weaken as Ana approaches Hawaii, so the 3 - 5 forecast probably has higher errors than usual. Ana could very well miss making a direct hit on any of the Hawaiian Islands, passing 100 - 200 miles to the west, if the latest 00Z Wednesday forecast from the European model is correct.


Figure 3. Radar image from the South Hawaii radar at 7:49 am EDT August 8, 2014 of Tropical Storm Iselle near landfall on the Big Island. The radar beam is being intercepted by the high mountains of Hawaii, and cannot "see" to the northwest.

First Iselle and Julio for Hawaii, and now Ana?
Tropical storms and hurricanes are rare in the Hawaiian Islands, but 2014 is one of their most active years on record. Tropical Storm Iselle made a direct hit on August 8, Hurricane Julio passed just to the north of the islands a few days later, bringing high surf, and now Hurricane Ana threatens to cause more trouble. Since 1949, the Hawaiian Islands have received a direct hit from just two hurricanes--Dot in 1959, and Iniki in 1992. Both hit the island of Kauai. Only two tropical storms have hit the islands since 1949--an unnamed 1958 storm which hit the Big Island, and Tropical Storm Iselle, which made landfall along the southeast shore of Hawaii's Big Island on August 8, 2014 with 60 mph winds. Iselle killed one person and did $66 million in damage, according to Aon Benfield. Most of this damage ($53 million) came from the destruction of 60% of the state's papaya crop. Iselle was the strongest tropical cyclone on record to hit the Big Island; the island's other tropical storm, the unnamed 1958 storm, had sustained winds of 50 mph at landfall. (Older records from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center show at least one other tropical cyclone between 1900 - 1948 that probably made a direct hit on Hawaii: an August 19, 1938 storm that brought sustained winds of 60 mph to Oahu.)

Eastern Pacific tropical disturbance 92E a heavy rainfall threat to Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, an broad area of disturbed weather (Invest 92E) was located a few hundred miles south of the Pacific coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and was headed northwest at about 5 - 10 mph. With light wind shear, warm SSTs near 29.5°C (85°F), and a moist atmosphere, this disturbance is likely to develop into a tropical depression later this week. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 40% and 60%, respectively. 92E is a threat to bring heavy rains to the Pacific coast of Mexico on Thursday and continuing into the weekend. As of Wednesday morning, though, 92E's heavy rains remained offshore, as seen on satellite loops.

Moisture from 92E may move northwards across Mexico into the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by early next week, contributing to the formation of a tropical or sub-tropical depression there by Wednesday, as predicted by the GFS and European models.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has more on the tropics in a Wednesday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

the last dropsound had 180 mph winds above the surface as well. I think we may be looking at borderline cat 5 here.... maybe 150 mph winds.
Up to 145mph
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GONZALO AL082014 10/16/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 125 126 125 120 117 111 104 93 71 44 24 DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 125 126 125 120 117 111 104 93 71 44 24 DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 125 126 122 116 109 97 88 76 56 45 39 36 33
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 10 5 7 13 13 16 18 27 40 51 55 51 55
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 6 3 1 0 9 15 11 6 3 17 6
SHEAR DIR 275 233 223 223 224 226 185 199 235 266 293 296 281
SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.1 26.0 20.6 10.4 11.0 11.9 14.0 14.5
POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 143 137 129 119 89 73 73 73 75 75
ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 134 129 123 116 110 84 71 71 72 72 71
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -53.1 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 6 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 55 55 50 46 41 35 38 42 49 44 46 45 50
MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 30 30 33 35 36 38 34 24 16 14 14
850 MB ENV VOR -18 -4 10 16 30 37 -3 -23 -36 -1 -3 2 91
200 MB DIV 54 94 68 45 80 90 128 92 26 -6 -19 -1 11
700-850 TADV 6 9 14 28 22 30 31 94 40 37 85 21 -27
LAND (KM) 667 785 903 1067 1062 1090 753 450 261 1033 1118 347 -33
LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.6 27.6 29.0 30.3 33.1 37.3 42.5 47.8 51.1 52.2 53.8 55.7
LONG(DEG W) 68.7 68.3 67.8 67.0 66.3 64.4 61.9 57.0 49.3 39.1 26.7 15.3 4.7
STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 13 15 15 20 27 35 37 38 37 34 32
HEAT CONTENT 37 35 44 17 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
-------------------------------------------------- --------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -9. -18. -31. -46. -62. -74. -81. -85. -90.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12.
PERSISTENCE 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 4. -6. -14. -15. -15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
-------------------------------------------------- --------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -5. -8. -14. -21. -32. -54. -81.-101.-114.-122.

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/14 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/14 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/2014 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 38 38( 62) 32( 74) 29( 81) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 24 34( 50) 1( 50) 0( 50) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
Can we focus on Gonzalo for now?.Bermuda could be getting smacked by a serious storm.
GFDL for 92E in the BOC


yeah the GFS for next Thursday..but later it weakens coming ashore............
Holy smokes (these are above the surface, btw).

Dropsonde.

927mb

60° (from the ENE)

156 knots (180 mph)
so far im guessing at worst a tropical storm end of next week,we can handle that
Quoting 505. SFLWeatherman:

GFDL for 92E in the BOC





It appears our Gulf System may be already trying to build in the BOC.

Quoting 507. CybrTeddy:

Holy smokes (these are above the surface, btw).

Dropsonde.

927mb

60° (from the ENE)

156 knots (180 mph)


Yikes!
Nam is mentioning something in the BOC as well.............................................. ........
Quoting 509. StormTrackerScott:



It appears our Gulf System may be already trying to build in the BOC.


could this be..in the BOC..the tail end of the front and NOT the pacific thing coming across mexico?..we always watch tail end of fronts in the gulf don't we?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Can we focus on Gonzalo for now?.Bermuda could be getting smacked by a serious storm.


Wide left. Bermuda will be spared.
Quoting 508. LargoFl:

so far im guessing at worst a tropical storm end of next week,we can handle that


I agree should be a heavy rain producer across FL which isn't always a bad thing this time of year.
Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 60° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 139 knots (160 mph)
Quoting 512. LargoFl:

could this be..in the BOC..the tail end of the front and NOT the pacific thing coming across mexico?..we always watch tail end of fronts in the gulf don't we?


Eventually the moisture from 92E will get pulled into the Gulf and it then when our Gulf system really develops come this weekend.
Gonzalo wants to make a run at cat 5
Quoting 504. washingtonian115:

Can we focus on Gonzalo for now?.Bermuda could be getting smacked by a serious storm.
You're herding cats...
Quoting 507. CybrTeddy:

Holy smokes (these are above the surface, btw).

Dropsonde.

927mb

60° (from the ENE)

156 knots (180 mph)


oh my word this is heading right for Bermuda
Quoting Patrap:
One saving grace for Bermuda in a Major is that it is a Island, and a lot of the Surge wave action goes around and not over as its coastline isnt long or wide enough for a surge to build to height.




The other saving grace is more important. Gonzalo will miss hitting it.
Surge Map for Gonzalo

IMO, that dropsonde could easily support those SFMR readings of 135 knots.
Quoting 507. CybrTeddy:

Holy smokes (these are above the surface, btw).

Dropsonde.

927mb

60° (from the ENE)

156 knots (180 mph)


I'd hope so!
Quoting 507. CybrTeddy:

Holy smokes (these are above the surface, btw).

Dropsonde.

927mb

60° (from the ENE)

156 knots (180 mph)


He's in a groove, & the bottom is falling out..which may bode well downstream as it will be hard to maintain that, thru the impact...

Hopefully we can get some insight on that situ with the upcoming entry.

It will matter greatly.

For Bermuda.



Depth of the 26C isotherm

Quoting 507. CybrTeddy:

Holy smokes (these are above the surface, btw).

Dropsonde.

927mb

60° (from the ENE)

156 knots (180 mph)

DAAAAANG!!!
Quoting 424. aislinnpaps:

Good morning and afternoon, everyone! So glad today is Thursday because that means tomorrow is Friday...

My thoughts with the people of Bermuda. It's a beautiful little island, and no where to really go for a hurricane.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: steak, eggs and hash browns, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, croissants, creamy oatmeal with fresh blueberries, cheesy grits and shrimp, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!


I need to get my 3D printer working in the kitchen.
Quoting 525. Huracan94:


DAAAAANG!!!
In that visible imagery CyberTed posted there was a huge hot tower near the eye.
Quoting 520. CycloneOz:



The other saving grace is more important. Gonzalo will miss hitting it.
yeah but 170-180 mph winds my god
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It appears our Gulf System may be already trying to build in the BOC.



Pulling moisture up from the Pacific through the Chivela Pass.
I mentioned yesterday that this would be where the system would start.
You can even watch the models and see energy from the Pacific coming into the BOC.

Quoting 525. Huracan94:

DAAAAANG!!!


The 927mb isn't a measure of the storms pressure, it's a measure of geopotential height (500mb, 850mb, etc). The storm is around 940mb in pressure.
Quoting 527. washingtonian115:

In that visible imagery CyberTed posted there was a huge hot tower near the eye.

They probably plowed right through it to get those winds then. I think Gonzalo will be upped to at least 150-155 regardless though.
Gonzalo ..... WOW! Hope Bermuda is ready!


Always prepare and be ready for a direct hit .... that way, you are as ready as you can ever be, for the BIG one.

Thoughts are with you, stay safe out there!

Run from the water, hide from the wind!

Quoting 481. WxGuy2014:

Bermuda looks to be in the cross-hairs of a major. I hope they are all taking preparations seriously. Im curious since its pretty apparent they are going to be get hit, that would aid be prepared to roll out there say, today? Since they are in the middle of the atlantic i would imagine it would take a few days for ships to arrive.


Bermudians are a proud people. We turned down an offer of aid from the British after Fabian and I imagine our response this time will also be "thanks, but no thanks."
FXCN31 CWHX 161200
Tropical cyclone technical information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 9.04 AM ADT
Thursday 16 October 2014.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 AM ADT, hurricane Gonzalo was located near latitude 25.7 N
and longitude 68.6 W, about 449 nautical miles or 831 km
south-southwest of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at
120 knots (222 km/h) and central pressure at 945 MB. Gonzalo is
moving north at 8 knots (15 km/h).

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Oct 16 9.00 AM 25.7N 68.6W 945 120 222
Oct 16 9.00 PM 28.2N 67.7W 950 110 204
Oct 17 9.00 AM 30.5N 66.4W 956 100 185
Oct 17 9.00 PM 33.7N 64.5W 962 90 167
Oct 18 9.00 AM 38.2N 61.6W 965 85 157
Oct 18 9.00 PM 43.0N 57.1W 971 75 139
Oct 19 9.00 AM 48.4N 47.3W 978 65 120 post-tropical
Oct 19 9.00 PM 50.7N 37.5W 978 55 102 post-tropical


3. Technical discussion

A. Analysis

An aircraft recon into Gonzalo last evening detected an opening in
the southern eyewall and some slight weakening in intensity, despite
the storm's fairly impressive satellite representation. Fluctuations
in intensity are common in Major hurricanes and these details at this
stage will likely have little bearing on the storm's eventual impact
on the weekend here in Eastern Canada.

B. Prognostic

Very little change in track or philosophy from previous issue, just a
slight adjustment for the system's slightly slower forward motion
over the past 6 to 12 hours or so. The concensus of most
deterministic models over the past few issuances has been trending
toward the track slightly eastward, keeping the centre of Gonzalo
near or just east of the Avalon Peninsula. Cyclone phase space
diagnostics show Gonzalo going through somewhat of an extended
asymmetric warm core phase as it tracks toward / over Newfoundland.
The cold front to the west will likely become draped to the north of
the storm circulation today and Friday. The precipitation pattern
suggested by most models is one where the heavy rains migrate to the
front semi-circle of the circulation (E.G. Downshear). This coupled
with rapid forward motion by then will tame the rainfall totals,
although rain could fall very quickly which is often problematic.
There is great uncertainty in the role of the closed upper low to the
west and if it is strong enough to pull the storm faster northward.
If Gonzalo retains more tropical character and less trough
interaction, then an offshore track would be more likely. Based on
the latest guidance CHC maintains Gonzalo as a tropical system well
into the Canadian response zone.

C. Predicted wind radii (NM)

Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
16/12Z 125 110 100 120 65 60 45 55 40 35 30 30
17/00Z 135 135 110 120 75 70 55 60 40 45 30 30
17/12Z 145 160 120 120 80 80 65 60 45 50 30 30
18/00Z 155 180 130 125 85 85 75 65 50 50 30 30
18/12Z 170 200 135 130 90 95 80 70 55 50 30 30
19/00Z 190 215 145 135 100 105 80 70 65 50 25 30
19/12Z 215 240 165 145 110 110 80 70 70 50 25 30
20/00Z 225 250 175 160 110 110 80 70 0 0 0 0


END/FOGARTY/BORGEL/MACKINNON
Next advisory poll:
A 145
B 150
C 155
D CAT 5
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA


For hurricane Gonzalo.

The next statement will be issued by 3:00 PM ADT.

Hurricane Gonzalo to impact Bermuda on Friday then accelerate northeastward - likely to affect Southeastern Newfoundland late Saturday or Sunday.

1. Summary of basic information at 9.00 AM ADT.

Location: near 25.7 north 68.6 west.

About 830 kilometres south-southwest of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: 220 km/hour.

Present movement: north at 15 km/hour.

Minimum central pressure: 945 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Latest computer models are still indicating that Gonzalo will be affecting Newfoundland this weekend, even if the centre of it remains a bit offshore. Gonzalo will be undergoing transition to a strong post-tropical storm as it races north-northeastward on Saturday with strongest winds to the right (southeast) of its track and heaviest rains to the left (northwest) and near the track itself. It is looking more likely that the main area to be affected will be Southeastern Newfoundland with rain and possibly some wind impacts from Gonzalo. Yesterday we were mentioning that Cape Breton could see rain from Gonzalo but that is looking much less likely as of this morning. The Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia will, however, experience large ocean swells beginning late Friday and continuing Saturday. Details below.

As of this morning the range of track scenarios has narrowed, with the westernmost track possibility near St. Pierre and Miquelon and the easternmost about 250 kilometres southeast of Cape Race. This represents a range of about 350 kilometres with about a 40-50% chance of the storm centre making landfall in Newfoundland, down a bit from yesterday. Arrival of the main circulation/windy part of the storm is now estimated to be a bit later, ranging from late Saturday evening to Sunday morning (9 to 12 hours of uncertainty).

Note: a front with strong winds and heavy showers will cross the Maritimes on Friday and Newfoundland early Saturday. This in and of itself may feel like a tropical storm but should not to be confused with Gonzalo.

A. Wind.

Too early to predict wind speeds specifically, but this storm has the potential to bring very strong winds over land - particularly if the centre tracks near the Burin Peninsula which would place the Avalon within the high wind region. The wind field will be expanding away from (southeast of) the centre of the storm during transition to post-tropical, thus the highest winds could move far enough away and miss the land areas. This can occur even if the storm centre technically makes landfall, as was the case with hurricane Maria in 2011. The probability of this offshore wind situation has increased as of today with computer models indicating a farther-southeast track compared to yesterday. So although the range of track scenarios is narrowing, 350 kilometres will make all the difference as to whether the Avalon region experiences the full force of the wind, or winds much less.

B. Rainfall.

Rainfall from Gonzalo will be dependent on its track, forward speed of travel and state of post-tropical transition. Complicating matters further is the fact that a cold front is expected to cross Newfoundland then become stationary over the eastern part of the island by Saturday morning. That could bring with it some downpours especially if moisture from Gonzalo travels along it. The rainfall from the storm itself will likely move through very quickly and occur primarily within the front half of the storm followed by the higher winds. This is a typical pattern with these types of storms. We will have a better idea of potential rainfall amounts later today.

C. Surge/waves.

Certainly storm surge and waves will be of concern in Newfoundland if the centre tracks over land or even if it is just a bit offshore. Also the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia will experience large ocean swells of 2-3 metres on Saturday. We will have further details in our afternoon bulletin.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

This storm could have heavy impacts over parts of the marine district. Hurricane force winds and significant wave heights in excess of 12 metres are certainly possible over some marine areas, especially those to the right of the storm's track late Saturday or early Sunday. Further details will be available as the situation evolves.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings issued by Environment Canada for your area.

Forecaster(s): fogarty/mackinnon
I really hope this model is dead wrong for next week..................................
Bermuda is a British territory, so it's our responsibility to assist in the aftermath of what appears to be unfolding. Yet, there's absolutely nothing that I can find on the subject in the UK press. Maybe they think it'll miss the island.
this month really has exploded tropical wise huh
Quoting 511. LargoFl:

Nam is mentioning something in the BOC as well.............................................. ........
GFS has been a jive turkey, but with other models coming on board this is starting to get interesting!
Recon is slowly nearing the eye; already
974.8 mb and 82.4 knots (~ 94.8 mph)
Quoting 541. Llamaluvr:

GFS has been a jive turkey, but with other models coming on board this is starting to get interesting!
yes perhaps by Monday we should know better whats going on..most of the models are mentioning something developing..


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 OCT 2014 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 25:42:56 N Lon : 68:29:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 934.3mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +8.0C Cloud Region Temp : -67.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 115km
- Environmental MSLP : 1014mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.9 degrees

************************************************* ***
Quoting 529. LargoFl:

yeah but 170-180 mph winds my god


I think those were found well above the surface, if the winds are 145 now and pressure is dropping that would likely correspond to ~155
Quoting 539. yonzabam:

Bermuda is a British territory, so it's our responsibility to assist in the aftermath of what appears to be unfolding. Yet, there's absolutely nothing that I can find on the subject in the UK press. Maybe they think it'll miss the island.
the weather channel is saying folks in Bermuda are empting out the hardware stores preparing for this storm
547. SLU
Quoting 539. yonzabam:

Bermuda is a British territory, so it's our responsibility to assist in the aftermath of what appears to be unfolding. Yet, there's absolutely nothing that I can find on the subject in the UK press. Maybe they think it'll miss the island.


Living in a British Overseas Territory, and having worked with the FCO and British Navy during previous hurricane strikes... I can ASSURE you that Navy ships are steaming to Bermuda NOW. They will need to stay off enough (South) of the storm to avoid the worst seas, so they can arrive as soon as feasible after the storm passes.
Quoting 530. Sfloridacat5:



Pulling moisture up from the Pacific through the Chivela Pass.
I mentioned yesterday that this would be where the system would start.
You can even watch the models and see energy from the Pacific coming into the BOC.




They don't believe us :) I've been posting this for the past 3 days. This time of year, these systems often move to the east or northeast.



Quoting 545. win1gamegiantsplease:



I think those were found well above the surface, if the winds are 145 now and pressure is dropping that would likely correspond to ~155
ok ty..guess 145-155 is still enough to destroy things there,then we get the tornado's too
Quoting 508. LargoFl:

so far im guessing at worst a tropical storm end of next week,we can handle that


As long as it moves on by.... There's ALOT of standing water in my neck of the woods (west coast - north of Tampa)... Even just a few inches of rain is going to cause some flooding issues.
Quoting 549. Grothar:



They don't believe us :) I've been posting this for the past 3 days. This time of year, these systems often move to the east or northeast.




well most models agree on something forming in the BOC,what we don't know yet is how strong and where eventually it makes landfall huh
It should show heavier precip for Florida.

With each run it looks like Gonzalo move closer to Bermuda than the earlier runs

Quoting 551. fire635:



As long as it moves on by.... There's ALOT of standing water in my neck of the woods (west coast - north of Tampa)... Even just a few inches of rain is going to cause some flooding issues.
yes same here, lakes are full and the gullies alongside roads still have water in them..we'll see what happens..the storm could go elsewhere..nothing written in stone yet.
the models have underestimated Gonzalo..


Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 36m 36 minutes ago

12z intensity of Hurricane #Gonzalo was 125-knots. Good example of poorly forecast short term intensity fluctuation. High end Category 4.
Quoting 548. CaicosRetiredSailor:



Living in a British Overseas Territory, and having worked with the FCO and British Navy during previous hurricane strikes... I can ASSURE you that Navy ships are steaming to Bermuda NOW. They will need to stay off enough (South) of the storm to avoid the worst seas, so they can arrive as soon as feasible after the storm passes.


Maybe, but if it's a direct hit from a cat 4, it'll probably need a lot more help than can be provided by Royal Navy ships in the area. Do they have sufficient generators, for example? Bermudan infrastructure is pretty robust, from what I've read, but I still think we'll have to send a task force out from the UK (if it's a direct hit).
well this has changed since yesterday........................................

Gulf getting favorable again, shear going down.
I am certain that the HMS Argyll is enroute to Bermuda at this time. Below is from local paper when they visited Turks and Caicos in July:


"And while we all hope we have a quiet hurricane season in 2014, the hard work of the Department of Disaster Management and Emergencies (DDME) strongly supported by the UK Government has ensured that we are as well prepared as possible."

During their visit the crew of the HMS Argyll hosted a reception giving attendees an opportunity to hear about the role the ship plays in extreme weather event recovery.

They were also treated to a demonstration of the ship's rescue and evacuation capabilities featuring the helicopter and fast-response boat.

Crew members chatted with guests, talking about life on board and the important role the Royal Navy plays in the region.

HMS Argyll is in the Caribbean region as part of the Royal Navy's Atlantic Patrol Task (North).

This provides a UK maritime presence in the region all year round, and during hurricane season the ships are on standby to assist with post-incident recovery in the event of a severe weather event in the region's overseas territories - Anguilla, Bermuda, the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Montserrat and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
---------

http://tcweeklynews.com/hms-argyll-completes-gran d-turk-visit-p5268-127.htm
Quoting 554. Grothar:

With each run it looks like Gonzalo move closer to Bermuda than the earlier runs




When's the last time a hurricane's eye passed over Bermuda? I know Fabian cam close but went west.

I guess it doesn't really matter if it is as close as Fabian was they'd still get a thrashing if it comes in near 115 kt
I posted this last night but the Bermuda Political party was pleading to the Government to close public schools today which they didnt..only private schools are closed..

Quoting 484. AlbertFish:



Alternate pretend breakfast option for those who are getting bloated from all the pretend cheesy grits:

Half a can of warm Bud Light left on the nightstand, stale pizza crusts if you'd like to dig them out of the trash, and some suspect looking salsa that was left out on the coffee table since Tuesday, accompanied by the little shards of tortilla chips left at the bottom of the bag. Enjoy!


You must be one of my son's roommates
Anyone know Gonzalos ACE #'s?
The Royal Gazette
6 minutes ago
#Bermuda NEWS
Belco has requested that customers no longer call the 955 hotline to report outages. With hurricane preparations now underway in earnest, the company has apologised but said it cannot field 955 calls at this time.
Belco will know of widespread outages, and will run a damage assessment as soon as the hurricane has passed us by.
The Royal Gazette
20 minutes ago
#Bermuda NEWS
The Department of Health is advising you to devise a personal safety plan with family members before Hurricane Gonzalo's forecast arrival tomorrow. You should:
%u2022 Identify a strong room in your house as a %u201Csafe room%u201D
%u2022 Have current emergency phone numbers (*see below) and family contacts, particularly the elderly
%u2022 The appropriate tools kept nearby, including a First Aid Kit and hand sanitizer
%u2022 Know the location of electrical/gas/water shut-offs and how and when to shut them off
Ensure the safety of your pets
%u2022 Listen to the Emergency Broadcast station on 100.1 MHz. Follow instructions if ordered to evacuate.
%u2022Ensure that you and your family members have all required medications and health management supplies
%u2022 Stay away from windows and doors.
%u2022 Stay indoors. The only time you should leave your home is if you HAVE TO evacuate.
%u2022 Beware the Emergency Shelter is Cedarbridge School
%u2022 After the hurricane passes, go outdoors with extreme caution as there may be dangers such as falling debris, loose power lines, and flooding.
For further details on the topics mentioned, please consult the Emergency Plan for the General Public booklet available at emo.gov.bm and health.gov.bm
Emergency Numbers:
Emergency Measures Organization (EMO) %u2013 295-0011
Ambulance, Fire, Police- 911
Marine Rescue- 911
BELCO- 955
TELCO- 611
Works & Engineering- 295-5151
Bermuda Harbour Radio- 297-1010
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
I am certain that the HMS Argyll is enroute to Bermuda at this time. Below is from local paper when they visited Turks and Caicos in July:


"And while we all hope we have a quiet hurricane season in 2014, the hard work of the Department of Disaster Management and Emergencies (DDME) strongly supported by the UK Government has ensured that we are as well prepared as possible."

During their visit the crew of the HMS Argyll hosted a reception giving attendees an opportunity to hear about the role the ship plays in extreme weather event recovery.

They were also treated to a demonstration of the ship's rescue and evacuation capabilities featuring the helicopter and fast-response boat.

Crew members chatted with guests, talking about life on board and the important role the Royal Navy plays in the region.

HMS Argyll is in the Caribbean region as part of the Royal Navy's Atlantic Patrol Task (North).

This provides a UK maritime presence in the region all year round, and during hurricane season the ships are on standby to assist with post-incident recovery in the event of a severe weather event in the region's overseas territories - Anguilla, Bermuda, the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Montserrat and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
---------

http://tcweeklynews.com/hms-argyll-completes-gran d-turk-visit-p5268-127.htm


Argyll was here in Cayman last week
I was on the ship partying with the Royal Marines while it was here
I think Gonzalo might become the first Cat 5 in 7 years
Quoting LargoFl:
well this has changed since yesterday........................................


From watching the models this is not the GOM system.
A separate low will try to get going down in the BOC. It's already trying to develop right now.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


From watching the models this is not the GOM system.
A separate low will try to get going down in the BOC. It's already trying to develop right now.
I really agree with that statement, just looking at satellite loops.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think Gonzalo might become the first Cat 5 in 7 years
Me too.
Ahhh, gotta love this blog, always consistent and can always count on it. As of right now the only thing Florida is interested in is a phantom storm in the GOM while a cat 4 140mph cane is barreling toward Bermuda Island.
Quoting 577. RitaEvac:
Ahhh, gotta love this blog, always consistent and can always count on it. As of right now the only thing Florida is interested in is a phantom storm in the GOM while a cat 4 140mph cane is barreling toward Bermuda Island.


I personally can't say I'm even remotely interested in whatever develops in the GOMEX right now and I live in Florida. Gonzalo has my undivided attention. That being said, the possibility of TC genesis in the western Gulf as the result of this trough passing in combination with the precpitation in the EPAC is definitely something we should be aware of.
Quoting 562. win1gamegiantsplease:



When's the last time a hurricane's eye passed over Bermuda? I know Fabian cam close but went west.

I guess it doesn't really matter if it is as close as Fabian was they'd still get a thrashing if it comes in near 115 kt


The only recent ones I remember were Dean and Emily. I don't remember the years.
If anyone had told me a hurricane in 2014 would successfully become a major, have an EWRC, and come back even stronger... all the while out in the open Atlantic in mid-October... I'd have laughed at them.

It seems the worst-case scenario has happened for Bermuda. I know that an EWRC takes a lot of energy for a cyclone to successfully undergo - that if it gets negatively affected by any environmental factor during that process, it likely won't ever look the same or restrengthen. But Gonzalo, in mid-October - out in the open Atlantic no less - didn't. Now it appears that models are favouring a dangerously close-to-a-direct hit on Bermuda again.

Coupled with the inundation from Fay, I think Gonzalo's effects could be amplified there. This is shaping up to be a potentially catastrophic scenario.
these people are currently in Bermuda chasing the storm..

You can follow their twitter page for live updates..


S. FL Storm Chasers @SFLSChasers · 1h 1 hour ago

Matt here- #Gonzalo seems to still be strengthening, and any additional strengthening could make a direct impact on #Bermuda much worse.
After 7 days who knows what will happen, but all i know is that most are DRY in the southeast. Finally after such a wet period we will stay dry for at least a week. So, we can turn all our attention to Gonzalo.

Quoting 578. CybrTeddy:



I personally can't say I'm even remotely interested in whatever develops in the GOMEX right now and I live in Florida. Gonzalo has my undivided attention.



Teddy, I learned a long time ago not to just concentrate on the penny in front of you, because you might miss the dollar behind you.
I do not believe Gonzalo will ever reach cat-5 status.

8-14 days out, below average precipitation for most, except for extreme south FL. So perhaps this potential gulf system may not come to fruition.

Quoting 580. LostTomorrows:

If anyone had told me a hurricane in 2014 would successfully become a major, have an EWRC, and come back even stronger... all the while out in the open Atlantic in mid-October... I'd have laughed at them.

It seems the worst-case scenario has happened for Bermuda. I know that an EWRC takes a lot of energy for a cyclone to successfully undergo - that if it gets negatively affected by any environmental factor during that process, it likely won't ever look the same or restrengthen. But Gonzalo, in mid-October - out in the open Atlantic no less - didn't. Now it appears that models are favouring a dangerously close-to-a-direct hit on Bermuda again.

Coupled with the inundation from Fay, I think Gonzalo's effects could be amplified there. This is shaping up to be a potentially catastrophic scenario.

I agree with you ... SST are very favourable CAT 4 this morning ... Bermuda is in the cross-hairs
Quoting 577. RitaEvac:

Ahhh, gotta love this blog, always consistent and can always count on it. As of right now the only thing Florida is interested in is a phantom storm in the GOM while a cat 4 140mph cane is barreling toward Bermuda Island.
I wish I could plus this post 1 trillion times more and its always the same people...Gonzalo is more interesting than any ghost storm on the models right now.
Quoting 579. Grothar:



The only recent ones I remember were Dean and Emily. I don't remember the years.
Emily was in 87..The cat-5 Dean was in 2007, so one can deduce what year a Dean affected Bermuda.


Gonzalo looks impressive today ...
No mention of Ana or anything on here....
Quoting 577. RitaEvac:

Ahhh, gotta love this blog, always consistent and can always count on it. As of right now the only thing Florida is interested in is a phantom storm in the GOM while a cat 4 140mph cane is barreling toward Bermuda Island.
if YOU lived in florida..which storm would YOU and your family be watching?..a storm way out in the atlantic that will never come close to the states OR a potential tropical storm hitting YOUR state and area?...I really don't listen to comments like this...just a month ago many in here were saying this tropical season is over and dead..NOW look at it..for myself I watch for storms that could Possibly hit my state,so do others in here....gee enough said
Quoting 591. RitaEvac:

No mention of Ana or anything on here....
I posted her sat loop a few posts down. They are watching it closely. I havnt heard any watches or warnings on it yet.
Gonzalo's impressive but not Category 5 impressive. I could see him reaching 130 knots (he's already at 125 knots) by 2pm or so, but hurricanes this late in the year and at Gonzalo's location generally don't main that strength for too long.
folks in Florida...we DO have a FLORIDA weather blog for OUR weather and if you'd like to see..here is the link once again...........................Link
Quoting 592. LargoFl:

if YOU lived in florida..which storm would YOU and your family be watching?..a storm way out in the atlantic that will never come close to the states OR a potential tropical storm hitting YOUR state and area?...I really don't listen to comments like this...just a month ago many in here were saying this tropical season is over and dead..NOW look at it..for myself I watch for storms that could Possibly hit my state,so do others in here....gee enough said


The comment is exactly what it mentioned, the blog is always consistent and can always count on the same stuff, which is why I love it, even if it's Florida concerned about phantom storms while a 140 mph cane barrels towards Bermuda and a developing Cane barreling towards Hawaii
Quoting 586. Melagoo:


I agree with you ... SST are very favourable CAT 4 this morning ... Bermuda is in the cross-hairs


It's window for strengthening is starting to close, you can see shear from the west in the satellite beginning to affect him. Still could bottom out around 130-135 kt before the front increases shear and his forward motion.
just saw the most horrible political ad ever...who shows a child drowning to compare it to the person they are running against?
599. MahFL
Quoting 539. yonzabam:

Bermuda is a British territory, so it's our responsibility to assist in the aftermath of what appears to be unfolding. Yet, there's absolutely nothing that I can find on the subject in the UK press. Maybe they think it'll miss the island.


You could try the Bermuda press....
today at 10:16am is a national earthquake drill
TCW
08L/MH/G/C3

Quoting 588. washingtonian115:

I wish I could plus this post 1 trillion times more and its always the same people...Gonzalo is more interesting than any ghost storm on the models right now.


Ghost storm? There already appears to be a weak circulation trying to form in the BOC. The problem will be is how strong and where does it go and does it merge with an upper trough next week to become a hybrid system.

This is quite a flight pattern being flown by recon. Started out normal but for the past couple hours it's been non-stop NE quadrant investigation. That's where the highest winds are and Bermuda's gonna be on that side of it so that may explain it.

I know it's high in altitude, but this is just amazing:
726 mb
170' (from the S)
172 knots (198 mph)
I hate how I use so much data on this website x_x
It's just Gonzalo is strengthening and something like this hasn't happened in years and I don't want to miss it.
Quoting 592. LargoFl:
if YOU lived in florida..which storm would YOU and your family be watching?..a storm way out in the atlantic that will never come close to the states OR a potential tropical storm hitting YOUR state and area?...I really don't listen to comments like this...just a month ago many in here were saying this tropical season is over and dead..NOW look at it..for myself I watch for storms that could Possibly hit my state,so do others in here....gee enough said


Got to be honest with you, I live in Florida and I'm way more interested over the Category 4 heading straight for Bermuda than I am for the possibility of some sheared tropical storm that may or may not develop in a week.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 OCT 2014 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 25:46:49 N Lon : 68:27:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 934.3mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +8.8C Cloud Region Temp : -67.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 115km
- Environmental MSLP : 1014mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.0 degrees

************************************************* ***
Quoting 594. CybrTeddy:

Gonzalo's impressive but not Category 5 impressive. I could see him reaching 130 knots (he's already at 125 knots) by 2pm or so, but hurricanes this late in the year and at Gonzalo's location generally don't main that strength for too long.


Yep and as I just recently mentioned you can see some shear from the front coming in starting to affect Gonzo on the IR loop. Definitely a strong 4 but this next advisory or so will likely be his peak.
The wind is picking up in Bermuda on this link
Link
610. myway
Quoting 592. LargoFl:
if YOU lived in florida..which storm would YOU and your family be watching?..a storm way out in the atlantic that will never come close to the states OR a potential tropical storm hitting YOUR state and area?...I really don't listen to comments like this...just a month ago many in here were saying this tropical season is over and dead..NOW look at it..for myself I watch for storms that could Possibly hit my state,so do others in here....gee enough said


I live in Florida and realize that the possibility is always there that a storm could impact my area. That being said, Gonzalo will impact Bermuda in some way within the next two days. Highlighting what may or may not happen several days from now just gives more credence to the argument that Floridians only care about themselves.
Quoting RitaEvac:


The comment is exactly what it mentioned, the blog is always consistent and can always count on the same stuff, which is why I love it, even if it's Florida concerned about phantom storms while a 140 mph cane barrels towards Bermuda and a developing Cane barreling towards Hawaii


Yesterday (and again today) the people complaining are wasting more blog space than anyone else.

We had a whole page of complaining after Scott made his Florida rain forecast.

Stop complaining and just post weather related information that interests you.

Put people on ignore if you don't like their posts.

Quoting 589. hydrus:

Emily was in 87..The cat-5 Dean was in 2007, so one can deduce what year a Dean affected Bermuda.


I think there was an earlier Dean in the late 80's I think 1989, the same as Hugo.
Just FYI: It looks like the ISS will pass over or not far from Gonzalo on one of its afternoon orbits, either the one at about 1:15 (Eastern Time) or the one around 2:45.

Might want to check out the live streaming video at those times.

Just passing that along.
937.0 mb
(~ 27.67 inHg)
180 mph winds just above the surface.

Gonzalo could go all the way if it can maintain itself for twelve more hours.

Quoting 613. EdwardinAlaska:
Just FYI: It looks like the ISS will pass over or not far from Gonzalo on one of its afternoon orbits, either the one at about 1:15 (Eastern Time) or the one around 2:45.

Might want to check out the live streaming video at those times.

Just passing that along.


Here's a link to the ISS HDEV camera.

Quoting 611. Sfloridacat5:



Yesterday the people complaining were wasting more blog space than anyone else.

We had a whole page of complaining after Scott made his Florida rain forecast.

Stop complaining and just post weather related information that interests you.

Put people on ignore if you don't like their posts.




Damm a whole page of people complaining about me. LOL that is just too funny and people really need to get a grip on here.

those that said it won't make Cat 5 also said it wouldnt make Cat 4 and Bermuda would have minimal impacts..this storm is doing what it wants regardless of forecasts..
Quoting 611. Sfloridacat5:



Yesterday (and again today) the people complaining were wasting more blog space than anyone else.

We had a whole page of complaining after Scott made his Florida rain forecast.

Stop complaining and just post weather related information that interests you.

Put people on ignore if you don't like their posts.




lol, re-read the post...
Quoting EdwardinAlaska:
Just FYI: It looks like the ISS will pass over or not far from Gonzalo on one of its afternoon orbits, either the one at about 1:15 (Eastern Time) or the one around 2:45.

Might want to check out the live streaming video at those times.

Just passing that along.


Thanks for the info. Lets hope the crew isnt sleeping at that time so they can take a good photograph!
Quoting 563. ncstorm:

I posted this last night but the Bermuda Political party was pleading to the Government to close public schools today which they didnt..only private schools are closed..




Won't somebody think of the children?

But seriously, that's just stupid. Haven't we learned that nothing good comes from putting people in dangerous weather situations yet?
Just in case anyone missed it I posted a link of Port of Bermuda. As you can see the breeze is picking up.

Link
Quoting 622. Naga5000:



Won't somebody think of the children?

But seriously, that's just stupid. Haven't we learned that nothing good comes from putting people in dangerous weather situations yet?
today its ok they have till the paling of the sky in the morning to finish preps after that howling winds till after sunset calm by midnight Friday night
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Damm a whole page of people complaining about me. LOL that is just too funny and people really need to get a grip on here.



I actually started counting the complaints on the page but stopped. It's silly. I like your contribution to the blog.
You're posting weather related information.

There's still lots of posts and information about the current storms.
amazes me that people dont understand that we have brains that are able to read about and find interest in more than one weather system at a time. i think reading about gonzalo and the pacific storms and yes the long range predictions for florida are great... for gods sake its a weather blog and we are weather geeks whats with all the hateful comments for posting weather on a weather blog
Quoting 625. Sfloridacat5:



I actually started counting the complaints on the page but stopped. It's silly. I like the your contribution to the blog.
You're posting weather related information.

There's still lots of posts and information about the current storms.


I tell ya I really feel for these people in Bermuda. Gonzalo reminds me a lot of Charley in 04 in regards to it's size.

Quoting 606. CybrTeddy:



Gotta be honest with you, I live in Florida and I'm way more interested over the Category 4 heading straight for Bermuda than I am for the possibility of some sheared tropical storm that may or may not develop in a week.


Why is it so bad to be interested in the what may come later next week? Obviously we are all VERY aware of what is going on with Gonzalo.. but Gonzola already exists, and already has a defined track that we are almost 100% confident will verify. The storm is massive and will cause damage but at this time, MY OPINION ONLY, not all that interesting beyond the awe factor of its current state of development. The system to be in the gulf next week is very interesting to me... not only because it may affect my home on the west coast of Florida, but because of ALL the variables that are coming into play... watching the models as they all come on board with SOME type of development. The what if scenarios of where it may go, how strong will it be,... etc. ----- I know Bermuda is in for a decent hit ..but the interesting part with Gonzalo (again... IMO) was a few days ago when it was forming and they were trying to see how strong it was going to get and where it may go... and will be interesting again soon when it actually approaches landfall (or skirting) Bermuda.... but not today... TODAY all with Gonzalo is fairly static... no changes to talk about. Its big.. its going to Bermuda.. they are preparing
he has good forward motion slightly to the left as it moves forward may be near island just after midnight this evening ne quad pass by or just before 5 am
630. Ed22
Good morning weather enthusiast, it amazing that powerful monster hurricane Gonzalo. I'm not surprised if we get a category 5 system, winds are now 140mph-220kmph that could increased 11am and 2pm respectively. Its look pretty impressive right now, the Gulf of Mexico need monitoring closely this weekend into next week.
18z tomorrow things should be getting serious in Bermuda.
When there was a little wave in the Atlantic, which later became Gonzalo, many people were saying, "Why watch something that will never form, the wind shear is too high, conditions are too hostile, let's watch Vongfong." When some of you on here said days before it might affect the northern Antilles and Puerto Rico there was hardly and interest. Now everyone is on the Bandwagon like they discovered "Gonzalo". Yes, it is a very, very serious situation which will most likely have devastating results on Bermuda. I may be wrong, but it I thought this was a tropical blog and everything might be discussed in the tropics. I'm out for the day. Let the complainers have their field day by criticizing everyone else. It probably makes their day.

Now someone complain that there is too much color in this image. It would make my day.

Quoting 626. intampa:

amazes me that people dont understand that we have brains that are able to read about and find interest in more than one weather system at a time. i think reading about gonzalo and the pacific storms and yes the long range predictions for florida are great... for gods sake its a weather blog and we are weather geeks whats with all the hateful comments for posting weather on a weather blog
We heard about Flooding Florida rains for a year now with most of those events not materializing.What is one week of Focusing on a hurricane going to take from?
628. I did't say it wasn't interesting, we should be watching for development in the Gulf of Mexico. 00z ECMWF isn't showing much at this point, haven't checked the UKMET yet, GFS is showing something and the GEM's scenario is probably nonsense. At the very least, a copious amount of rainfall is possible for areas along of the Gulf Coast as the result of this surge of moisture. I just find Gonzalo more interesting from a meteorological point of view. We've gotten plenty of sheared tropical storms over the last few years, we haven't seen a storm of Gonzalo's intensity since 2010.

I'm still confused at what we're all bickering about.
Euro puts Gonzalo right over Bermuda in the middle of the night (00Z Saturday morning).
Nobody on the Island will be getting any sleep Friday night.

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS GONZALO A LITTLE STRONGER...
Up to 145mph. Maybe Cat. 5 today.
11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 16
Location: 26.1°N 68.6°W
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 940 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph
From CPHC:
Ana moving closer to Hawaii
Quoting 622. Naga5000:



Won't somebody think of the children?

But seriously, that's just stupid. Haven't we learned that nothing good comes from putting people in dangerous weather situations yet?


Reminds me of my school district when I was in my early teens, we had a very snowy winter (I think it was the year or year before Isabel) and we had nearly two weeks of classes cancelled which is what we do down south. Woke up one morning to easily over a half foot of snow...not even a delay. My parents made me stay home but needless to say a high school student in Winston-Salem (RJ Reynolds or Mt Tabor forget which) drove to school, ran off the road, and died. Last time school wasn't delayed/cancelled with accumulated precipitation since.

Edit: almost didnt catch the simpsons reference kudos!
Quoting 632. Grothar:

When there was a little wave in the Atlantic, which later became Gonzalo, many people were saying, "Why watch something that will never form, the wind shear is too high, conditions are too hostile, let's watch Vongfong." When some of you on here said days before it might affect the northern Antilles and Puerto Rico there was hardly and interest. Now everyone is on the Bandwagon like they discovered "Gonzalo". Yes, it is a very, very serious situation which will most likely have devastating results on Bermuda. I may be wrong, but it I thought this was a tropical blog and everything might be discussed in the tropics. I'm out for the day. Let the complainers have their field day by criticizing everyone else. It probably makes their day.

Now someone complain that there is too much color in this image. It would make my day.




Yeah and its not out of the question that we could have a hurricane in the Gulf next week however more likely a Tropical Storm but a hurricane can't be ruled out.
Quoting 628. fire635:



Why is it so bad to be interested in the what may come later next week? Obviously we are all VERY aware of what is going on with Gonzalo.. but Gonzola already exists, and already has a defined track that we are almost 100% confident will verify. The storm is massive and will cause damage but at this time, MY OPINION ONLY, not all that interesting beyond the awe factor of its current state of development. The system to be in the gulf next week is very interesting to me... not only because it may affect my home on the west coast of Florida, but because of ALL the variables that are coming into play... watching the models as they all come on board with SOME type of development. The what if scenarios of where it may go, how strong will it be,... etc. ----- I know Bermuda is in for a decent hit ..but the interesting part with Gonzalo (again... IMO) was a few days ago when it was forming and they were trying to see how strong it was going to get and where it may go... and will be interesting again soon when it actually approaches landfall (or skirting) Bermuda.... but not today... TODAY all with Gonzalo is fairly static... no changes to talk about. Its big.. its going to Bermuda.. they are preparing


Very well said!


Very narrow cone of doom.
Quoting 632. Grothar:

When there was a little wave in the Atlantic, which later became Gonzalo, many people were saying, "Why watch something that will never form, the wind shear is too high, conditions are too hostile, let's watch Vongfong." When some of you on here said days before it might affect the northern Antilles and Puerto Rico there was hardly and interest. Now everyone is on the Bandwagon like they discovered "Gonzalo". Yes, it is a very, very serious situation which will most likely have devastating results on Bermuda. I may be wrong, but it I thought this was a tropical blog and everything might be discussed in the tropics. I'm out for the day. Let the complainers have their field day by criticizing everyone else. It probably makes their day.

Now someone complain that there is too much color in this image. It would make my day.




I'm just fascinated by tropical weather. But I totally want to complain about that white spot (which is extraordinarily intense convestion, I know) because it looks like the image has been tampered with (I know it hasn't been) or it may be a dry air slot about to enter the eye and make Gonzalo explode and his pieces will fly in all sorts of different directions (uhhh).

That being said, Gonzalo is certainly anomalous, and as it stands, has lots of tropical enthusiasts hyped up. He's so strong for where he is and the time of year it is... especially in contrast to how the last two seasons have gone. It's times like these when I've always seen the blog go into a frenzy. Gonzalo will make a place in history, and you can read my last post as to the other reason he's causing a frenzy. I have a good friend in Bermuda and I'm very much hoping she, and everyone else there, will be safe.
A strong cat 4 in mid october at this location ... and in 2014 lol.
Dang, down to 7mph north movement, figured this thing be speeding up with that trough to its west by now
HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Gonzalo measured an
SFMR surface wind of 135 kt, but this observation was not supported
by the flight-level winds, which were only as high as 126 kt
in the northeastern quadrant, or SFMR data in subsequent passes in
that portion of the storm. The initial intensity is raised to 125 kt
on this advisory based on a compromise between the flight-level and
SFMR data, as well as satellite intensity estimates that range from
T5.5/102 kt from SAB and T6.6/130 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT.

Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12-24 hours
while Gonzalo remains in a relatively light-shear environment and
over warm sea surface temperatures. Some weakening is anticipated
on Friday once the vertical shear begins to increase, but Gonzalo is
not forecast to reach sub-26C water until about 48 hours.
Therefore, the hurricane is expected to maintain major
hurricane strength through the next 36 hours or so while it passes
Bermuda, with more rapid weakening forecast after 48 hours. The
official forecast is a little higher than the previous one during
the first 48 hours to account for the updated initial intensity.
This forecast is close to the SHIPS and LGEM guidance for the next
24 hours and then close to the intensity consensus thereafter.
Gonzalo is still forecast to be a post-tropical cyclone by day 3
while it passes near Newfoundland, and at that point it
should also be very close to taking on frontal characteristics.
Gonzalo should dissipate by day 5 while it moves eastward over the
north Atlantic.

The initial motion is 005/6 kt. Gonzalo is moving a little slower
than was previously forecast, which is having some downstream
effects on the track forecast. There is very little cross-track
spread among the model guidance, but nearly all of the track models
are slower than the previous forecast. Gonzalo is moving northward
to the east of a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States,
and the hurricane should begin to accelerate north-northeastward
ahead of this trough from this point forward. Since this
acceleration is somewhat delayed, the updated NHC track forecast is
a little slower than the previous one, and lies close to TVCA
and a GFS-ECMWF blend.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 26.1N 68.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 27.5N 68.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 29.9N 66.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 32.6N 64.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 36.5N 62.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 46.5N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
Quoting 634. CybrTeddy:

628. I did't say it wasn't interesting, we should be watching for development in the Gulf of Mexico. 00z ECMWF isn't showing much at this point, haven't checked the UKMET yet, GFS is showing something and the GEM's scenario is probably nonsense. At the very least, a copious amount of rainfall is possible for areas along of the Gulf Coast as the result of this surge of moisture. I just find Gonzalo more interesting from a meteorological point of view. We've gotten plenty of sheared tropical storms over the last few years, we haven't seen a storm of Gonzalo's intensity since 2010.

I'm still confused at what we're all bickering about.


The only ones bickering are the ones who think anyone living along the Gulf coast should only be focused on Gonzalo. Gonzalo is pretty and all and if I lived in Bermuda that is all I'd be focused on but I don't live there and live along the Gulf coast so I know I'm going to be keeping an eye on what could happen in the Gulf too.
WARNING MAYBE A CAT 5 HURRICANE COMING SOON!!
Quoting 645. CaribBoy:

A strong cat 4 in mid october at this location ... and in 2014 lol.


Good thing you didn't have to face this monster, can't wait to see your footage.

Gonzo down to 27.76"Hg and up to 125 kt
Can't people multi-task on this blog?What would yall have done in 2005 when there were multiple systems in the Atlantic to watch?
Quoting 8. 62901IL:

I'm thinking that Gonzalo will make a direct landfall on Bermuda with 135mph winds. Who's with me?

I'm also thinking than Ana will make landfall on the Big Island like Iselle did but coming from the southeast instead of the east. She will be at 85mph. Who's with me?


Wishcaster......really ?!? Please mods this is the kind of poster you should ban
653. MahFL
The eye is contracting on sat views....
Quoting 626. intampa:

amazes me that people dont understand that we have brains that are able to read about and find interest in more than one weather system at a time. i think reading about gonzalo and the pacific storms and yes the long range predictions for florida are great... for gods sake its a weather blog and we are weather geeks whats with all the hateful comments for posting weather on a weather blog


It's just a few attention-seeking types engaging in trollish behavior. The fact is, there are some on here who comment far more about other users of the forum than they ever do about weather. I've found i best to just ignore them...



Hurricane GONZALO AT 11:04 AM EDT on October 16, 2014 WINDS 145 MPH GUSTING TO 160 MPH
what face it BERMUDA is doom from this they will likey see cat 5 winds any way


WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON
FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND
ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.


so it looks like on the wind ward side of hilly trerrain will have a good ch of seeing cat 5 winds i hop ever w one there is ready for this

HWRF makes a direct hit.



Looks to be an extremely close call or a strike. Seems Bermuda could be on the dirtiest side of things too. Gonzalo should weaken slightly between now and then, but Bermuda, being small and with a fair amount of elevation, could bear some extreme wind gusts. As Pat and others wrote, surge shouldn't be a huge issue. Not looking great for them atm. I'd imagine a 100-110 knot system is not out of the question given the strengthening overnight. Up to 145 mph and still 940 mb at 1100.
Low forming in the gulf?!.
Updated forecast cone for Tropical Storm Ana.

Quoting 558. yonzabam:



Maybe, but if it's a direct hit from a cat 4, it'll probably need a lot more help than can be provided by Royal Navy ships in the area. Do they have sufficient generators, for example? Bermudan infrastructure is pretty robust, from what I've read, but I still think we'll have to send a task force out from the UK (if it's a direct hit).


Royal Navy are not the panacea to all woes but are very well trained and, if the attendant Royal Fleet Auxilliary Ship is close as well, the Frigate and RFA can supply much needed potable water, electrical power, medical aid and provisions and, hopefully, rotary Wing Support . Do not think that UK would send a "task force" per se (they did not to Grand Cayman after Ivan - some alleged internal local politics involved in that one) but with a centralised UK NGO disaster response organisation (albeit VERY stretched given current world scenarios), I am sure that relief aid wiil get there. Much will also depend on state of Airport post Gonzalo
Quoting 606. CybrTeddy:



Got to be honest with you, I live in Florida and I'm way more interested over the Category 4 heading straight for Bermuda than I am for the possibility of some sheared tropical storm that may or may not develop in a week.


Yes, yes, yes!
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Low forming in the gulf?!.


It's trying down in the southern BOC. Right now shear is pretty high across the GOM so anything that forms will be slow to develop.
663. MahFL
Quoting 622. Naga5000:



Won't somebody think of the children?

But seriously, that's just stupid. Haven't we learned that nothing good comes from putting people in dangerous weather situations yet?


The hurricane is 485 miles away, and they are not going to be evacuating anywhere.....Most of Bermuda has good hurricane proof buildings. So they might as well go to school today.
I'll come back when there aren't a bunch of angry Floridians ready to kill who bad mouths there state.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


It's trying down in the southern BOC. Right now shear is pretty high across the GOM so anything that forms will be slow to develop.
It's on a decrease trend.
It's starting to look like Bermuda isn't escaping this one. :/

Great point Taz about the possibility of up to a 30% increase of wind speed on windward facing slopes. Also even with this small core as of now it will only grow in extent as it moves north, regardless if it's weakening from here on out. As many know on here already storms gaining poleward latitude will expand their wind field radius, so even if it does swing and miss by the Island by 50-100 miles, Bermuda will still likely see a prolonged period 65 knot sustained winds with higher gusts for a best case scenario.

There does appear to be a decent chance of this going through an eye wall replacement cycle as it transverses Bermuda. Those cycles usually take a day to complete and recycle every other day or so...generally speaking. So if it were to engage in this process while atmospheric and oceanic processes are declining for support of a major, we still could see somewhat rapid weakening as it moves through Bermuda if it is in fact going through that process.

Personally I think we are going to see at least a 100 knot cyclone come very close to landfall with Bermuda.
Hurricane Gonzalo has already reached or is currently reaching its peak intensity. Microwave imagery shows the very beginnings of a second eyewall replacement cycle. On one hand, this cycle should weaken the storm back down to Category 3 intensity by the time it reaches Bermuda; on the other hand, this cycle should also lead to a further expansion of hurricane and tropical storm-force winds.

Quoting 664. washingtonian115:

I'll come back when there aren't a bunch of angry Floridians ready to kill who bad mouths there state.


Where is this coming from washi? You are normally pleasant on here.
Quoting 664. washingtonian115:

I'll come back when there aren't a bunch of angry Floridians ready to kill who bad mouths there state.


Its better than where you live at Florida is the second best state to live in California is first
Quoting 659. Sfloridacat5:

Updated forecast cone for Tropical Storm Ana.




Despite NHC lower her intensity I don't believe she was ever a 60 knot storm to begin with. But structurally speaking Ana has done a lot improvement over yesterday. She's still not perfectly stacked but you can clearly see this new thunderstorm burst taking on that classic 9 shape starting from the west side arcing back to a significant feeder band along the southern side. If it can get that burst completely under it's circulation then it's off to the races...

About a close as you can get with a direct hit.

The Island of Bermuda is solid like a rock and has gone through many powerful Hurricanes in the past with little or no problems so i'm not really worried about them to much. But just keep in mind that things could have turned out differently and Gonzalo could have slammed right into the Southeast coast of Florida as a strong cat-4 Hurricane and that would have been devastating. If you all remember some of the models had Gonzalo moving on a WNW path toward South Florida several days ago. So we really did get very lucky.
And posting a system in the GOM doesn't just affect Florida.
This system could affect anyone from New Orleans to Key West.




It's likely re-preaked in intensity. Still a formidable looking hurricane and not one I'd want to be staring down. Hope Bermudans fare well with this one!
Quoting 675. Sfloridacat5:

And posting a system in the GOM doesn't just affect Florida.
This system could affect anyone from New Orleans to Key West.




Exactly what I have been saying as it could become a very large system if a upper trough cuts off and merges with our Gulf System creating a large hybrid system with impacts from New Orleans to FL.


Quoting 677. GatorWX:




It's likely re-preaked in intensity. Still a formidable looking hurricane and not one I'd want to be staring down. Hope Bermudans fare well with this one!


WOW!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting LostTomorrows:


I'm just fascinated by tropical weather. But I totally want to complain about that white spot (which is extraordinarily intense convestion, I know) because it looks like the image has been tampered with (I know it hasn't been) or it may be a dry air slot about to enter the eye and make Gonzalo explode and his pieces will fly in all sorts of different directions (uhhh).

That being said, Gonzalo is certainly anomalous, and as it stands, has lots of tropical enthusiasts hyped up. He's so strong for where he is and the time of year it is... especially in contrast to how the last two seasons have gone. It's times like these when I've always seen the blog go into a frenzy. Gonzalo will make a place in history, and you can read my last post as to the other reason he's causing a frenzy. I have a good friend in Bermuda and I'm very much hoping she, and everyone else there, will be safe.
When Gonzalo was a little bunch os swerling clouds, people were talking about a stoem that was going to fotm in the southwestern Caribbean, a couple of people includin me, just suggested to focus on the eastern Caribbean since conditions were primes for development east of the islands, not so in the western Caribbean...
Quoting 640. win1gamegiantsplease:



Reminds me of my school district when I was in my early teens, we had a very snowy winter (I think it was the year or year before Isabel) and we had nearly two weeks of classes cancelled which is what we do down south. Woke up one morning to easily over a half foot of snow...not even a delay. My parents made me stay home but needless to say a high school student in Winston-Salem (RJ Reynolds or Mt Tabor forget which) drove to school, ran off the road, and died. Last time school wasn't delayed/cancelled with accumulated precipitation since.

Edit: almost didnt catch the simpsons reference kudos!


There have been many cases in the DC area where schools are delayed or cancelled in the face of what turns out to be an underwhelming event. But occasionally there is the converse disaster to remind us why we should err
on the side of caution.

November 11, 1987 was a bad forecast in the DC metro area. Flurries were forecast. 12-18" of snow verified in the southern half of Prince George's county most falling in just eight hours. It was a school day. Snow began around 8:30AM when kids were just reaching school. By 3:PM they
were snowed in. Many had to spend the night at school and they were the lucky ones. Others tried to get out
on buses and the buses eventually got stuck in various rural locations of the county. No one was killed or seriously injured but it was a horrific event for many parents and kids.
Quoting 650. win1gamegiantsplease:



Good thing you didn't have to face this monster, can't wait to see your footage.

Gonzo down to 27.76"Hg and up to 125 kt


Definitely!! :-)

Here my first video : Link