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Gonzalo Forms Near Lesser Antilles; Hudhud Blasts India; Fay Lashes Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:37 PM GMT on October 12, 2014

For the first time since 2013, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is issuing simultaneous advisories for two Atlantic named storms, thanks to the formation of Tropical Storm Gonzalo on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops and Martinique radar showed on Sunday afternoon that Gonzalo was well-organized with plenty of spin, spiral bands, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that was increasing in areal extent and intensity. Water vapor satellite loops showed a good degree of dry air surrounding Gonzalo, but with wind shear a light 5 - 10 knots, this dry air was not substantially impeding development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were warm, near 29°C (84°F). The 2 pm Sunday run of the SHIPS model predicted that conditions would remain favorable for development for the next five days, with light to moderate wind shear and SSTs near 29°C (84°F). Gonzalo should steadily intensify until reaching Puerto Rico on Monday. After that time, the models are unified in showing that the storm will get caught up in a trough of low pressure and turn to the north and then northeast, possibly passing close to Bermuda next Saturday or Sunday.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Gonzalo taken at approximately 12 pm EDT October 12, 2014, as the storm was forming. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Martinique radar image of Tropical Gonzalo taken at 3:15 pm EDT October 12, 2014. Image credit: Meteo France.

Fay brings winds near hurricane force to Bermuda
Tropical Storm Fay is accelerating to the northeast, out to sea, after battering Bermuda with winds close to hurricane force. Sustained winds at the Bermuda Airport reached 61 mph, with a gust to 82 mph, at 7:34 am local time Sunday morning. The airport recorded 1.85" of rain from the storm as of noon on Sunday. Fay will be absorbed by a cold front on Monday and die, without affecting any other land areas. The construction on Bermuda is the best of any island in the Atlantic to handle hurricane-force winds, and I expect damage on the island will be minor.

Category 4 Hudhud blasts India
Tropical Cyclone Hudhud powered ashore near Visakhapatnam, India at 05 UTC (3 am EDT) Sunday as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 135 mph. Preliminary media reports indicate that damage was heavy in Visakhapatnam, a port city of 2 million, with thousands of homes damaged or destroyed and five people killed by falling trees and masonry. One-minute resolution wind observations from Visakhapatnam showed a peak sustained wind of 73 mph at 9:44 am local time, with a peak gust of 119 mph at 10:30 am. The station stopped reporting data at that time. Communications are out to much of the most severely affected regions, and I expect Hudhud's eventual toll will be similar to that of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Phailin, which killed 45 people and did $700 million in damage in October 2013 to an area of India's coast just north of where Hudhud hit. Satellite loops show that Hudhud is pushing inland and weakening rapidly, with the storm's heavy thunderstorms steadily shrinking in areal coverage and intensity.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Hudhud taken at approximately 1 am EDT October 12, 2014, as the storm was making landfall near Visakhapatnam, India. At the time, Hudhud was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Final image of Tropical Cyclone Hudhud as seen by radar out of Visakhapatnam, India before it failed at 4:51 UTC (12:51 am EDT) October 12, 2014. At the time, Hudhud was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds.

Vongfong drenching Japan
Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Vongfong are drenching southern Japan as the once-mighty typhoon steams slowly north-northeastwards at 10 mph. Okinawa Island took a tremendous beating from Vongfong on Friday and Saturday, with sustained winds reaching 64 mph, with gusts as high as 89 mph. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) AMeDAS site at Kunigami on the northern end of Okinawa reported 20.83" (529.0 mm) of rain in 48 hours. Vongfong injured at least 31 people and knocked out power to much of the island. Satellite loops and Japanese radar show that Vongfong's eyewall has collapsed, and the storm continues to weaken due to high wind shear and cooling waters. Vongfong will likely dump 1 - 2 feet of rain over portions of Japan Sunday and Monday.


Figure 5. Heavy rains from Vongfong as seen on Japanese radar at 01:25 local time Monday (12:25 pm EDT Sunday.) Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has his take on the tropics in a Sunday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. Relix
Quoting 499. LargoFl:

tropical storm force winds predicted for PR................................................ ..


In my experience with this... this is wrong. Usually nothing especially on the west side.
Quoting 477. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys well

Only couple more days and MJO a would be in full swing




It might be possible that the Atlantic Basin observes 1 or 2 more named storms after Gonzalo!

Also, Gonzalo is forecasted to become the 6th hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.

The MJO seems to be enhancing this otherwise "slower" hurricane season at the moment. How much longer will the MJO be over the Atlantic Basin?
Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
419 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.STRONG WINDS...NOT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM. WHILE THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

ALZ011>015-017>050-132300-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WI.Y.0009.141013T1800Z-141014T1200Z/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH -CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SH ELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY- BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA- LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR -
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...
ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALO OSA...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABA STER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...R OANOKE...
LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...MA RION...
CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...
VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE...DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN. ..SELMA...
PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...
MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...
PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
419 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
CDT TUESDAY.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 18 TO 22 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND ON AREA
LAKES.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS COULD KNOCK DOWN WEAK LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 24 MPH AND HIGHER...
OR WIND GUSTS OF 36 MPH AND HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$
He is West of the models at this time
Meteo France Dominica radar show a movement to the northwest with the strongest part of the storm on the north eastern quadrant. Hurricane Hugo past over the north eastern part of Puerto Rico and I can tell, we have more rain one regular summer afternoon on the west coast than that day. By the way, beautiful blue skies here on the southwestern tip of the island 88 degrees winds, calm.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-pu blic/animation/animMOSAIC_ant.html
HWRF for 95C


GFS

CMC

Quoting 507. SFLWeatherman:

HWRF for 95C


GFS

CMC


wow could go up to a cat 3 hurricane
I'd still watch the GFS after Gonzalo in the Carribean. With an MJO coming it is possible despite the inconsistency.
next week over florida then up the east coast............................................. ......
well the GFS is at it again..storm crosses florida then up the coast...............
stay alert and safe folks............................................. ............................
Good Morning
Quoting 508. LargoFl:



I doubt it very much. This system will pass farther NE (IMO)
520. MahFL
Quoting 517. LargoFl:




Cat5....doom !
The ECMWF ENS sure have something moving from the southern GOM NE through FL and kind of lingering. Will it be what GFS is trying to depict or something else... we'll find out soon enough.

@168HR


@192HR


@216HR


@240HR
Quoting 473. Envoirment:



Oh wow, just noticed the eye-like feature on radar. Could potentially strengthen into a hurricane as it passes over you CaribBoy. Seems you've finally got your wish! Hopefully it'll be beneficial with the rain totals and not do much damage. Stay safe!


At least he is honest about his wishcasting. He should get to experience a nice TS. Hopefully, damage is minimal.
The wind sensors in Antigua have stop sending data
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for several of the Leeward islands, including Antigua, Anguilla, St. Kitts, St. Martin/St. Maartin, and the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico. And because forecasters believe Gonzalo will reach hurricane strength Tuesday, hurricane watches are in effect for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Gonzalo this,Gonzalo that, Gonzalo blah blah blah.Puerto Rico is safe.
Good morning.

New video discussion on Gonzalo for those interested:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, October 13th, 2014
Quoting 523. HuracandelCaribe:

The wind sensors in Antigua have stop sending data
Los sensores volaron en cantos?
Quoting 521. WxLogic:

The ECMWF ENS sure have something moving from the southern GOM NE through FL and kind of lingering. Will it be what GFS is trying to depict or something else... we'll find out soon enough.

@168HR


@192HR


@216HR


@240HR

thanks for finding this,it might turn out to be Florida's turn next week for a storm,but the storm is supposed to get stronger per gfs as it marches up the east coast...anyone remember Sandy right about the same time of month too..gee
Quoting 520. MahFL:



Cat5....doom !
sure it could be one severe storm alright
Where are all those experts from Florida?
532. BVI
Greetings from the British Virgin Islands as we await Gonzalo. It is a little breezy this morning but mostly blue skies. Schools and businesses remain open as of now, this may change if the hurricane watch changes to a warning. Airport is open but most flights cancelled already for today.




Tropical Storm GONZALO at 9:15 AM EDT on October 13, 2014
535. JRRP
Quoting LargoFl:

watch out if you live in Puerto Rico flooding rain and windy weather coming from this tropical storm GONZALO
Gonzalo is getting closer to hurricane intensity. Recon just found flight-level winds of 65kt and surface winds in the 55-60kt range. The pressure is slowly falling, in the 992-993mb range.

Not bad.

SFMR
62 knots
(~ 71.3 mph)

Flight level
64 knots
(~ 73.6 mph)
I forget, what island is CaribBoy on?
Gonzalo's center appears to be over Antigua. Recon couldn't get to the center, but still found a pressure of 992 MB indicating that the pressure may be lower (990-991 MB)
Quoting 540. luvtogolf:

I forget, what island is CaribBoy on?
Gilligans
Quoting TylerStanfield:
Gonzalo's center appears to be over Antigua. Recon couldn't get to the center, but still found a pressure of 992 MB indicating that the pressure may be lower (990-991 MB)


I agree, winds were still around 35-40 knots at the lowest pressure reading, so we're probably around 991 mb.
Quoting 535. JRRP:



Expert
Quoting 483. skycycle:



I think i've asked this before, and it's off-topic, but still I'm curious - how big is your family, because what you describe as breakfast is easily a heavy lunch in Europe, for example...

Also, why do u keep posting these food bits?
Its virtual breakfast for the Wunderbloggers... I think.
546. SLU
Pretty big storm there...

The Atlantic Basin has not shut down yet in OCTOBER 2014!

Gonzalo predicted to become the 6th hurricane (possibly a major hurricane), of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Yesterday, Fay became the 5th hurricane of the season .... after brushing past Bermuda, with hurricane force wind gusts recorded.

MJO in full swing, we might see more action in the near future .... Hanna and Isaias are the next names on the list!

Quoting 545. SouthTampa:

Its virtual breakfast for the Wunderbloggers... I think.


I thought he owned a restaurant or something and that is what they were serving. Kinda weird if it is just a virtual.
GEOS-5 has come in line re-curving Gonzalo before the Bahamas. May get another major..

congratualtions to the tropical atlantic for our 8th tropical disturbance
Quoting LargoFl:
CMC tries to develop ex91L.
Quoting 546. SLU:

Pretty big storm there...



This does not impress me. This system is not going to be a hurricane in the very near future. Also, I maintain the opinion that this system will pass farther east from PR than expected right now.
I have been through numerous storms, but Fay was something special, 200 year old trees fell. There was an incredibly high amount of tornado activity, the low pressure center passed over the eastern portion of the Island. The scramble to prepare for Gonzalo begins. Write up and link below:


If your interested photo's and video to be found at: http://www.royalgazette.com/article/20141013/NEWS/ 141019923

Bermuda is today counting the cost and cleaning up debris after a pummelling early morning impact from Tropic Storm Fay left nearly 28,000 homes without power.

There were no deaths, Premier Michael Dunkley said, but ten minor injuries were reported. As of 9.30pm, the lights were still out for 11,379 Belco customers.

The storm escalated sharply before sunrise yesterday, lashing the Island with gusts of up to 120mph clocked by the Bermuda Weather Service station at Commissioner's Point, Dockyard.

Early reports, which couldn't be confirmed because the equipment had malfunctioned, suggested a blast of 155mph as the eyewall of the storm passed the Island.

The worst of the winds struck between 7am and 8.20am.

Powerful enough to dislodge containers at the Hamilton docks, TS Fay downed trees and power lines all over Bermuda, flooding roads and leaving others clogged or impassable, while many buildings sustained roof damage.

At LF Wade International Airport, flights were cancelled and travellers stranded after the storm tore into the terminal roof, setting off extensive flooding as well as damaging radar.

Many schools, including all public schools, have opted to stay closed today.

Belco reported at least a dozen poles down.

The sparking and explosions of transformers were heard by many.

A spokesman for Bermuda Maritime Operations said there'd been eight confirmed cases of boats breaking their moorings — but said they were many more likely not yet reported.

Yesterday's clear-up operations by Public Works were bolstered by 100 Regiment soldiers, while residents came out in their droves at first light to cut away at fallen trees — or just to appraise the damage.

In fact, so many sightseers turned out that a number of advisories were issued, requesting the public to keep at home.

The cleanup began while the winds were still strong, and continued until well after dark. Belco crews were restoring power until midnight, and planned to resume at first light today.

Tarpaulins were given out at the Government quarry, while Standard Hardware and Masters opened for business.

Hamilton took a battering, with early morning flooding on Front Street.

At least one building on Reid Street sustained major damage, and the road was initially blocked by downed trees.

The Police Tattoo parade, already delayed by Fay, was again postponed, and sports events were called off.

After a seemingly quiet night, TS Fay surged with power well after it had gone beyond its predicted closest point of approach to the Island's east.

The sudden ferocity of the storm took many by surprise.

Spanish Point resident Charles Rebello reported that “all hell broke loose” at his Stovell Bay Road property around 5am.

“I've never seen anything like it in my 82 years,” Mr Rebello said.

“I thought it was going to be an ordinary wind, but it turned into much more. Trees were bent double. All kinds of trees were coming down. It's going to take me weeks to clean it up.”
Quoting ricderr:
congratualtions to the tropical atlantic for our fourth tropical cyclone


4th? What happened to the other systems?
Gonzalo definitely doesn't belong in this season..It's to good for it...And Gonzalo is not a fish storm because after when it's done with the islands looks like it's on a one way express ticket to Bermuda.
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Quoting 550. ricderr:

congratualtions to the tropical atlantic for our fourth tropical cyclone


Rough morning?
A = 1
B = 2
C = 3
D = 4???
E = 5
F = 6
Gonzalo = 7
Quoting 554. Sfloridacat5:



4th? What happened to the other systems?

Bertha, Christobal, and Dolly aren't worthy to be counted I guess...
Late in the 7th inning the Atlantic spurs a rally.

Albeit weak,....

Fall returns tonight in Dixie.

: P
4th? What happened to the other systems?


LOL...don't ask me what the hell i was typing.....sure wasn't what i was thinking.....re-read it after i had posted and had to make sure my fingers were still attached to my hand....because there sure wasn't a brain connection
Quoting 554. Sfloridacat5:



4th? What happened to the other systems?


ric has trouble after #4 seems.

Been a trend I've noticed.


: )
Good morning

I believe we have all our preparations ready for whatever comes our way. Now it's a watch and wait scenario.

This morning I fell down a set of stairs and am now sitting with my foot bagged in ice, awaiting a set of crutches to be delivered. :-( This is NOT a good scenario.

Lindy
further strength expected. good luck islanders could be a marine loss. for wishcasting this those pirates may make carib boy to walk the plank
Quoting 532. BVI:

Greetings from the British Virgin Islands as we await Gonzalo. It is a little breezy this morning but mostly blue skies. Schools and businesses remain open as of now, this may change if the hurricane watch changes to a warning. Airport is open but most flights cancelled already for today.


Stay safe out there.

Quoting 531. prcane4you:

Where are all those experts from Florida?


Likely watching 300+ hr runs of the GFS, well not STS
Oh, you can watch what's happening over here on our website Link

The first cam takes in Charlotte Amalie Harbor and the second one, Crown Bay, with Water Island in the background.

Quoting 560. ricderr:

4th? What happened to the other systems?


LOL...don't ask me what the hell i was typing.....sure wasn't what i was thinking.....re-read it after i had posted and had to make sure my fingers were still attached to my hand....because there sure wasn't a brain connection


Ricderr, seems that you are struggling in night school. I can offer my assistance as a special tutor if you need it:)
Rough morning?
A = 1
B = 2
C = 3
D = 4???
E = 5
F = 6
Gonzalo = 7



and a td equals 8.........not sure how i typed 4....i'll have to blame it on monday and spending most of the night removing our front tree that the winds from our cold front blew down for me....hated that tree...but sure wasn't ready for the thumping it gave the house last night
Quoting 562. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good morning

I believe we have all our preparations ready for whatever comes our way. Now it's a watch and wait scenario.

This morning I fell down a set of stairs and am now sitting with my foot bagged in ice, awaiting a set of crutches to be delivered. :-( This is NOT a good scenario.

Lindy
A bad combination!.I hope Gonzalo isn't to bad for you guys.Is there someone there to help?.
Winds did look crazy strong in Fay over Bermuda. The end of this video gets wild. I've seen several mentions of people & neighbors losing their roofs to that.

Ricderr, seems that you are struggling in night school. I can offer my assistance as a special tutor if you need it:)



bring your chainsaw luv.......gonna make firewood this afternoon
Quoting 562. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good morning

I believe we have all our preparations ready for whatever comes our way. Now it's a watch and wait scenario.

This morning I fell down a set of stairs and am now sitting with my foot bagged in ice, awaiting a set of crutches to be delivered. :-( This is NOT a good scenario.

Lindy

VIV, I hate to here that, I hope it's not real bad. Stay safe. And use them crutches.

Sheri
Quoting 567. ricderr:

Rough morning?
A = 1
B = 2
C = 3
D = 4???
E = 5
F = 6
Gonzalo = 7



and a td equals 8.........not sure how i typed 4....i'll have to blame it on monday and spending most of the night removing our front tree that the winds from our cold front blew down for me....hated that tree...but sure wasn't ready for the thumping it gave the house last night



TD 2 was not a name storm so it dos not count so we have had 7 name storms
Quoting 570. ricderr:

Ricderr, seems that you are struggling in night school. I can offer my assistance as a special tutor if you need it:)



bring your chainsaw luv.......gonna make firewood this afternoon


Last time I got out a chainsaw - well, let's just say I'm glad I have insurance. Health and homeowners.....
Quoting 562. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good morning

I believe we have all our preparations ready for whatever comes our way. Now it's a watch and wait scenario.

This morning I fell down a set of stairs and am now sitting with my foot bagged in ice, awaiting a set of crutches to be delivered. :-( This is NOT a good scenario.

Lindy
ouch Lindy
Quoting 553. DevilsIsles:

I have been through numerous storms, but Fay was something special, 200 year old trees fell. There was an incredibly high amount of tornado activity, the low pressure center passed over the eastern portion of the Island. The scramble to prepare for Gonzalo begins. Write up and link below:


If your interested photo's and video to be found at: http://www.royalgazette.com/article/20141013/NEWS/ 141019923

Bermuda is today counting the cost and cleaning up debris after a pummelling early morning impact from Tropic Storm Fay left nearly 28,000 homes without power.

There were no deaths, Premier Michael Dunkley said, but ten minor injuries were reported. As of 9.30pm, the lights were still out for 11,379 Belco customers.

The storm escalated sharply before sunrise yesterday, lashing the Island with gusts of up to 120mph clocked by the Bermuda Weather Service station at Commissioner's Point, Dockyard.

Early reports, which couldn't be confirmed because the equipment had malfunctioned, suggested a blast of 155mph as the eyewall of the storm passed the Island.

The worst of the winds struck between 7am and 8.20am.

Powerful enough to dislodge containers at the Hamilton docks, TS Fay downed trees and power lines all over Bermuda, flooding roads and leaving others clogged or impassable, while many buildings sustained roof damage.

At LF Wade International Airport, flights were cancelled and travellers stranded after the storm tore into the terminal roof, setting off extensive flooding as well as damaging radar.

Many schools, including all public schools, have opted to stay closed today.

Belco reported at least a dozen poles down.

The sparking and explosions of transformers were heard by many.

A spokesman for Bermuda Maritime Operations said there'd been eight confirmed cases of boats breaking their moorings — but said they were many more likely not yet reported.

Yesterday's clear-up operations by Public Works were bolstered by 100 Regiment soldiers, while residents came out in their droves at first light to cut away at fallen trees — or just to appraise the damage.

In fact, so many sightseers turned out that a number of advisories were issued, requesting the public to keep at home.

The cleanup began while the winds were still strong, and continued until well after dark. Belco crews were restoring power until midnight, and planned to resume at first light today.

Tarpaulins were given out at the Government quarry, while Standard Hardware and Masters opened for business.

Hamilton took a battering, with early morning flooding on Front Street.

At least one building on Reid Street sustained major damage, and the road was initially blocked by downed trees.

The Police Tattoo parade, already delayed by Fay, was again postponed, and sports events were called off.

After a seemingly quiet night, TS Fay surged with power well after it had gone beyond its predicted closest point of approach to the Island's east.

The sudden ferocity of the storm took many by surprise.

Spanish Point resident Charles Rebello reported that “all hell broke loose” at his Stovell Bay Road property around 5am.

“I've never seen anything like it in my 82 years,” Mr Rebello said.

“I thought it was going to be an ordinary wind, but it turned into much more. Trees were bent double. All kinds of trees were coming down. It's going to take me weeks to clean it up.”
please stay alert and safe there..this next storm could be even stronger
Quoting 568. washingtonian115:

A bad combination!.I hope Gonzalo isn't to bad for you guys.Is there someone there to help?.


Yes, I've got my other half here and believe me, he's sitting over there cussing me out a blue streak right now! (typical fisherman) He can't understand how I did it, and of all days, today.
Quoting 551. HurricaneAndre:

CMC tries to develop ex91L.
yeah I see that..sure is an active month,storm wise huh
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


Stay safe out there.



Likely watching 300+ hr runs of the GFS, well not STS


Hey, the GFS is down to 228 hours today. But don't worry it will probably be back up to 340 hours tomorrow.
Quoting 535. JRRP:



lol great song,i remember it well.
580. JLPR2
HHs got 70mph winds in Gonzalo as they were leaving, almost there.

581. BVI
Unconfirmed report of 102mph wind gust in Antigua, it is likely to strengthen further before it reaches us in the British Virgin Islands
Quoting 580. JLPR2:

HHs got 70mph winds in Gonzalo as they were leaving, almost there.



70 Mph ; 991 MB still intensifying.
Should see Gonzalo become a hurricane over the next 12 hours. The first hurricane south of 20N this season.
583. Relix
Jogging west for the past hour and a half it seems. South of forecast points.
Gonzalo getting stronger by the minute...could be a hurricane before the day's over.

Meanwhile, Fay is being shredded...I guess getting what she deserves after Bermuda.
Quoting 576. VirginIslandsVisitor:



Yes, I've got my other half here and believe me, he's sitting over there cussing me out a blue streak right now! (typical fisherman) He can't understand how I did it, and of all days, today.
Remember that he still loves you and will help you out no matter what.He's probably worried with the whole storm approaching and all.It's a really stressful time.
Looks like he wants to be a major.

Quoting 569. Skyepony:

Winds did look crazy strong in Fay over Bermuda. The end of this video gets wild. I've seen several mentions of people & neighbors losing their roofs to that.




Holy nonrefillable prescriptions Batman, maybe Fay did reach hurricane status in Bermuda.
Quoting 589. win1gamegiantsplease:



Holy nonrefillable prescriptions Batman, maybe Fay did reach hurricane status in Bermuda.
Fay was a hurricane.The NHC decided to wait longer to classify it.
Quoting 591. washingtonian115:

Fay was a hurricane.The NHC decided to wait longer to classify it.

Yeah, in post-season analysis, its time as a hurricane will probably run from 12z-18z instead of the operational 21z-03z. By the time they upgraded it yesterday evening, the structure had significantly degraded.
593. JLPR2
An eye is trying to establish itself, not quite there yet.

How can anyone say that Gonzalo is not going to become a hurricane, with the exception of some upper level dry air, he has everything else going for him. He is in the best conditions any cyclone has been in this hurricane season.

And Taz TD2 is still considered a Tropical cyclone by the experts.
Hi folks, interesting times ahead in the tropical Atlantic! Hope everyone stays safe. For all who are interested in severe European weather: I'll take most of the maps and news (currently with torrential rains in northern Italy) to my blog as long as some tropical storms are around in our bassin.


Gonzalo with its developing northeastern eyewall: Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Gonzalo is coming up on this station..

Barbuda, Barbuda (BARA9)

Quoting 592. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, in post-season analysis, its time as a hurricane will probably run from 12z-18z instead of the operational 21z-03z. By the time they upgraded it yesterday evening, the structure had significantly degraded.
The video is very telling of that.I hope to see some videos posted on youtube soon.Some said it was the worst since Igor.
Quoting 586. washingtonian115:

Remember that he still loves you and will help you out no matter what.He's probably worried with the whole storm approaching and all.It's a really stressful time.


I totally agree with you and the fact that he hates to see me cry just adds to the whole situation. All I can say is this could not have happened at a worse time.

The island has gone strangely quiet (at least this area). Looks like everyone has gotten pretty much everything done. I went down for my morning coffee earlier today (pre accident) and saw that the large fishing boats have been pulled out and are in the ball field and all the small boats are up on waterfront, all tied down. The waterfront restaurants aren't bothering to open.

Quoting 593. JLPR2:

An eye is trying to establish itself, not quite there yet.




One of the more typical tc's in awhile. Classic structure, steady intensification, IT'S IN THE TROPICS, etc. Looks good on both sat and radar. Should be a cane later today, imo. Bermuda may want to keep a close eye on this one. Fay did look surprisingly strong in Skye's video. I was impressed yesterday by the numbers from weather stations across the island. One of the stronger systems I've seen hit the island in awhile.
Lookout mid country today.. This one is trying for landcane statues..

TORNADO 0534
– Valid until: 10/13/2014 1900Z
– States affected: AR LA MO MS TN TX
– Issued: 10/13/2014 at 1210Z
TORNADO 0533
– Valid until: 10/13/2014 1600Z
– States affected: AR LA OK TX
– Issued: 10/13/2014 at 0820Z
Quoting Huracan94:
Gonzalo getting stronger by the minute...could be a hurricane before the day's over.

Meanwhile, Fay is being shredded...I guess getting what she deserves after Bermuda.
As As forecast Gonzalo becoming a hurricane...before day is over...
What happened to comment 601?.
605. PR51
Quoting 583. Relix:

Jogging west for the past hour and a half it seems. South of forecast points.
If that is correct... would that means a readjustment in trajectory...
NOLA NWS Slidell, DISCO


ounding discussion...

No problems with the flight this morning. Much drier this morning
but very unstable with a precipitable water of 1.57 inches and an Li of -6.7. A
good bit of shear this morning with winds rapidly increasing with
height and a helicity value of 216. Cape values approaching the
3000 levels...therefore the threat of severe weather expected to
increase later today into the evening hours. Damaging straight
line winds and isolated tornadoes will be the primary threat along
and ahead of a squall line. A strong south...southeasterly flow in
the lowest levels with a south to southwesterly flow in the middle
and upper levels. Airmass very moist in the lowest levels below
900 mb with a relatively dry airmass above 900 mb.







&&

Previous discussion... /issued 444 am CDT Monday Oct 13 2014/

Short term...
the main concerns will definitely be in the short-term as a
vigorous Fall storm is currently underway and evolving over the
Lower Plains states. A well defined squall line has developed from
northern Arkansas and extending to south of the Dallas-Fort Worth
metroplex this morning. The eastward progression is measured at 25
knots and currently out-running the upper support. The lower lobe
of upper trough gains amplitude throughout the day and becomes
neutrally tilted by this evening upon arrival into the forecast
area. Several convective watches and a few warnings already are in
place ahead of this squall and additional issuances can be
expected eastward through this evening. Given forward
progress...best arrival timing appears to be kbtr around 7
PM...kmcb 8 PM...khdc 830 PM...kasd/kmsy 930 PM...kgpt/kbix 11
PM...kpql around midnight. Chap guidance off the GFS is showing
some fast timing issues but the potential impacts are acceptable.
Kbtr/kmcb model soundings are indicating high end EF1 tornado
potential...gusts to 71 miles per hour. Points east are indicated to be just
above severe thresholds and points south of the lake were
indicated to be sub-severe. Precipitation totals from chap were
close to 2 inches over a short duration between 00z-06z. By
comparison... the NAM model guidance maintained sub-severe
potentials at all locations and appears to be underperforming with
this system. The GFS based guidance will be the basis for severe weather potential statement and
consistent with Storm Prediction Center outlook guidance. We do anticipate most or all
of the forecast area to be place under a watch at some point middle
to late afternoon hours.

Sharp upper trough axis should pass to the east of the forecast
area near daybreak Tuesday with high pressure then building into
the area. Severe storm threat will end with frontal passage from
west to east. Drier conditions move into the area for Tuesday
along with decent cold air advection that neutralizes later
Tuesday.
608. Relix
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/08L/flash- rgb-long.html

Check Forecast points and SAB points, that will give you an idea. Its south of forecast points; convection is making it seem like moving WSW but Martinique radar proves its moving 270.
Quoting 604. washingtonian115:

What happened to comment 601?.

I see it, think it's 602.. Patrap when you post some stuff from there it turns some of the fonts red in the comments before it, atleast in my view.
Quoting 597. washingtonian115:

The video is very telling of that.I hope to see some videos posted on youtube soon.Some said it was the worst since Igor.


TWC showed a few clips they're impressive to say the least
It looks like it strengthened in just the past few hours.

Well, NO wind expected here in PR. In my opinion, minimal slight rain. NO necessity to spend government resources any more for this system.
Bermuda needs a hurricane watch soon from this storm all so this storm is going too be a lot stronger then what they this had looks like round 2 for Bermuda
Hey everyone. I see we have TS Gonzalo trying for hurricane status and, from what I've been seeing here, moving west of where it's forecasted to go. Hope this one doesn't blow up and slam FL. Though some rain and cooler weather would be really nice. Beginning of last week it really cooled down, but about Wednesday it got hot again, and now it's back to typical FL summer. :( I wish the weather would not tease and once it started getting cold would just stay cold! lol :)
Quoting 613. juracanpr1:

Well, NO wind expected here in PR. In my opinion, minimal slight rain. NO necessity to spend government resources any more for this system.



a downcaster ? PR is going too see a lot of rain and wind from this storm you have no idea what you are saying
Quoting 618. Tazmanian:




a downcaster ? PR is going too see a lot of rain and wind from this storm you have no idea what you are saying


He/she is using reverse psychology. Saying that nothing will happen but hoping he/she will get hit.
Donnie..stay alert up there .....................................
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT AREA BEACHES DUE
TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND ONSHORE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST AT AREA BEACHES ON
TUESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY
TUESDAY...MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRAVERSE OUR REGION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 55 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY.
this sounds like a little more then this a little rain for PR if you live on PR i would keep a close watch on this storm you see hvy rains and strong winds of 65 to 75mph may be stronger this is vary good news for PR with the rain i sure they can make do with out the wind

Quoting 618. Tazmanian:




a downcaster ? PR is going too see a lot of rain and wind from this storm you have no idea what you are saying
Everyone is entitled to their opinion...
Quoting 618. Tazmanian:




a downcaster ? PR is going too see a lot of rain and wind from this storm you have no idea what you are saying


I especially agree with you Taz if the western part of the circulation develops nicely.
Quoting 614. Tazmanian:

Bermuda needs a hurricane watch soon from this storm all so this storm is going too be a lot stronger then what they this had looks like round 2 for Bermuda


It's too far from Bermuda to warrant a watch. The forecast doesn't bring it close to them until Saturday.
Quoting 616. Weathergirlklein:

Hey everyone. I see we have TS Gonzalo trying for hurricane status and, from what I've been seeing here, moving west of where it's forecasted to go. Hope this one doesn't blow up and slam FL. Though some rain and cooler weather would be really nice. Beginning of last week it really cooled down, but about Wednesday it got hot again, and now it's back to typical FL summer. :( I wish the weather would not tease and once it started getting cold would just stay cold! lol :)
well that coming cold front is supposed to make it all the way down florida tomorrow and wens.
626. JRRP
Quoting 600. Skyepony:

Lookout mid country today.. This one is trying for landcane statues..


gee this one may very well throw off tornado's..a dangerous front this is
i find the PR NWS better then the WU raders

all so has PR is a part of the US this will be are 1st land falling hurricane for the US this season


Quoting 622. SoFLRoofguy:

Everyone is entitled to their opinion...


Well in my opinion, an opinion like that should be kept to themselves, because this is a very dangerous storm developing right in their front yard. Any deviation in the track to the west will put PR into harm's way. This is a particularly dangerous situation for the USVI and PR. Gonzalo could become a category two hurricane before it reaches these islands. I expect him to go through some RI later today as he builds the western part of the circulation as well as his inner core.
Quoting 628. Tazmanian:

i find the PR NWS better then the WU raders

all so has PR is a part of the US this will be are 1st land falling hurricane for the US this season





It's forecast to pass north of the island, and we have already seen a US landfall this season
what happens IF..it keeps moving westward and moves Under PR?...will it still feel that northern tug and head north?
Past radar and satellite observations gif that I made for Gonzalo.
Tropical Storm GONZALO
11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 13 2014
Location: 17.2°N 61.9°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
636. SLU
Quoting 629. TheDawnAwakening:



Well in my opinion, an opinion like that should be kept to themselves, because this is a very dangerous storm developing right in their front yard. Any deviation in the track to the west will put PR into harm's way. This is a particularly dangerous situation for the USVI and PR. Gonzalo could become a category two hurricane before it reaches these islands. I expect him to go through some RI later today as he builds the western part of the circulation as well as his inner core.
never said it was a particularly good opinion...or I agreed with it...
Bermuda needs a hurricane watch soon maybe at 5pm add new hurricane watch for Bermuda
639. PR51
Quoting 608. Relix:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/08L/flash - rgb-long.html

Check Forecast points and SAB points, that will give you an idea. Its south of forecast points; convection is making it seem like moving WSW but Martinique radar proves its moving 270.
But the experts are saying to the contrary... that the nw turn has started. In who can you trust?
Quoting 637. SoFLRoofguy:

never said it was a particularly good opinion...or I agreed with it...


I know, it was not directed at you, it was a generalized statement. Fay showed what a hurricane at 75mph can do to an island. Gonzalo will be stronger.
Skye's right..this front is like a Land TS................................................ .................


its starting to look like a hurricane soon
So far this morning apart from a few very brief, light, early showers, it has been eerily quiet in my neck of the woods in the Nature Isle of the Caribbean, Dominica. And for that we are certainly thankful!...
Our thoughts and prayers go out to those badly affected by Fay in Bermuda,(the negative Bermudan precedent with F- named storms continues-Re: Fabian 2003), and Gonzalo in Antigua and Dependencies.
So far this year there seems to be a pattern of these storms which appear to be underestimated in strength at first, but are proving to be much more potent than imagined.
Ex 91L etc. also certainly 'bears watching.'

Let's Pray that the Good Lord Jesus will continue to give us the strength and Grace to deal with whatever storms may come. May God Bless us All, and lets All keep safe this Hurricane Season.
Quoting 632. win1gamegiantsplease:



It's forecast to pass north of the island, and we have already seen a US landfall this season


i dont think Hurricane Arthur ever made land fall i mean it came close too makeing landfall near Cape Lookout, North Carolina but i think the storm has too be fully on land in oder too be called a full land fall Hurricane Arthur so it dos not conut has a land falling storm has most of it stayed out too sea



now if are G storms moves over PR and makes a full land fall then that would really be are 1st US land fall of the season well see
Quoting LargoFl:
what happens IF..it keeps moving westward and moves Under PR?...will it still feel that northern tug and head north?
Yews. The only question is does it get to the SE Bahamas if that happens before it turns north. There is a zero chance it will get to Florida.
Quoting 644. Tazmanian:



i dont think Hurricane Arthur ever made land fall i mean it came close too makeing landfall near Cape Lookout, North Carolina but i think the storm has too be fully on land in oder too be called a full land fall Hurricane Arthur so it dos not conut has a land falling storm has most of it stayed out too sea



now if are G storms moves over PR and makes a full land fall then that would really be are 1st US land fall of the season well see


TAZ, Hurricane Arthur made landfall, his eye made landfall to the east of Cape Lookout and over the Outer Banks, he made landfall as an 105mph hurricane.
front may throw off a tornado later today...stay alert folks.............................


nice looking tropical storm
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO STRENGTHENING WHILE IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ON ANTIGUA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 61.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST.
MARTIN...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTIN HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST.
MAARTIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* ANGUILLA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
. For an up-to-date look at what each of the Caribbean islands are experiencing, go here: Link

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO WILL OVERSPREAD
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY EVENING AND REACH EASTERN PUERTO
RICO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AS TROPICAL STORM GONZALO APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT MANLY OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVER PUERTO RICO...
GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MAINLY IN SQUALLY WEATHER AND RAIN BANDS. MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS
UP TO 18 FEET.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE
TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.
Quoting Tazmanian:


i dont think Hurricane Arthur ever made land fall i mean it came close too makeing landfall near Cape Lookout, North Carolina but i think the storm has too be fully on land in oder too be called a full land fall Hurricane Arthur so it dos not conut has a land falling storm has most of it stayed out too sea



now if are G storms moves over PR and makes a full land fall then that would really be are 1st US land fall of the season well see


Arthur definitely made landfall on the coast of North Carolina. The COC (eye) moved completely onshore of the Outerbanks.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 644. Tazmanian:



i dont think Hurricane Arthur ever made land fall i mean it came close too makeing landfall near Cape Lookout, North Carolina but i think the storm has too be fully on land in oder too be called a full land fall Hurricane Arthur so it dos not conut has a land falling storm has most of it stayed out too sea



now if are G storms moves over PR and makes a full land fall then that would really be are 1st US land fall of the season well see


It did make landfall, the eye went over my location at the end of the loop

Tornado Watch 534 remains in effect until 200 PM CDT for the following locations

MS . Mississippi counties included are

Adams Bolivar Claiborne Coahoma DeSoto Humphreys Issaquena Jefferson Leflore Panola Quitman Sharkey Sunflower Tallahatchie Tate Tunica Warren Washington
Quoting Hurricane1216:
Past radar and satellite observations gif that I made for Gonzalo.

That's pretty cool. The storm is moving generally W-WNW. Should cross through the middle of the Virgin Islands.
659. JRRP
the eye?
17.5n 62w
Quoting 609. Skyepony:


I see it, think it's 602.. Patrap when you post some stuff from there it turns some of the fonts red in the comments before it, atleast in my view.


Thats a Bug in the wu "rich text" mode.

Not mine.

: P

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