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Gonzalo Brushes Newfoundland; Ana Drenching Hawaii

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:54 PM GMT on October 19, 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo sped by Southeast Newfoundland, Canada on Sunday morning as a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds. Cape Race, Newfoundland measured sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 55 mph at 8:30 am local time; Cape Pine measured a gust of 66 mph. Despite traversing waters colder than 10°C (50°F), Gonzalo was still maintaining its tropical characteristics on Sunday morning, and had a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center. The hurricane can't maintain its tropical nature for much longer, and will become an extratropical storm by Sunday night. On Tuesday, the powerful extratropical storm that was Gonzalo will hit the U.K., bringing wind gusts of 50 - 70 mph. The UK Met Office has posted a "Yellow warning of wind" for the islands for Tuesday.

Gonzalo hit Bermuda near 8:30 pm EDT Friday night as a strong Category 2 storm with sustained 110 mph winds. Sustained winds at the Bermuda Airport peaked at 76 mph, with a gust to 96 mph, as the northern eyewall passed overhead between 8 - 9 pm AST. After a calm lasting about an hour, when the pressure sank to 953 mb, the southern eyewall hit, with stronger winds than the northern eyewall--93 mph, gusting to 113 mph, at 11:55 pm AST. No one was killed on the island, and damage was moderate. The airport is scheduled to re-open on Sunday afternoon.


Figure 1. Workers use a chainsaw to remove an uprooted tree from a street in downtown after hurricane Gonzalo hit the island in Hamilton, Bermuda, Saturday Oct. 18, 2014. (AP Photo/David Skinner) BERMUDA OUT

Hurricane Ana bringing heavy rains to Hawaii
Hurricane Ana continues to trek just over 100 miles south of the Hawaiian Island chain as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Satellite loops on Sunday morning showed that Ana was holding its own against high wind shear, and the hurricane was bringing heavy rains to Oahu and Kauai, where Flash Flood Watches are in effect. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 6" with locally higher amounts are expected before Ana finally chugs out to sea. Ana dumped 4.55" or rain on Hilo on the Big Island on Saturday, a record for the date.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Ana brushing the Hawaiian Islands on October 18, 2014. At the time, Ana had top winds of 80 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Radar image of Ana at 12:22 pm EDT October 19, 2014, from the South Kauai radar.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated total rainfall from Ana from the Molokai Radar.

Tropical Storm Trudy dissipates after hitting Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Trudy formed Friday night and made landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico about 75 miles east-southeast of Acapulco on Saturday morning with sustained winds of 60 mph. Acapulco radar and satellite images show that very heavy rains from Trudy continue to affect the coast of Mexico, and Trudy's remnants have the potential to dump rains totaling 6 - 12 inches through Wednesday in the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca in southern Mexico. Trudy's formation gives the 2014 Eastern Pacific (east of 140°W) 19 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 8 intense hurricanes in 2014. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees just 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year, with only one more named storm occurring after October 18.

Two areas to watch in the Atlantic
Moisture from Trudy will move northwards across Mexico into the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday, contributing to the formation of a large area of low pressure that will bring heavy rains to Mexico's Gulf Coast, Western Cuba, and South Florida on Wednesday through Friday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this low 2-day and 5-day odds of development into a tropical or subtropical cyclone of 0% and 30%, respectively. The low should move generally eastward or east-northeastward during the week.

NHC is also watching a non-tropical low pressure system in the Eastern Atlantic between the Canary Islands and Azores Islands. This system was designated 92L on Sunday, and was given 5-day development odds of 20%.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has his take on the tropics in a Sunday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Look at that. Street-scape trees toppling over again. When will municipalities ever learn?

So the weather guys and gals say a better chance of subtropical in the Gulf. Stay tuned.
I guess Dr. Masters doesn't agree with the EURO solution of bringing the mess to North Florida.. Does make more sense for it to head south. Thanks for the update doc! :)
While gonzalo's moving very quickly at 52 mph, the Long Island express still has the record for fastest forward speed for a hurricane.


http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/w eather_history_38.html
Moisture from the Pacific working its way into the BOC.
Quoting 3. Tazmanian:




reported


rule # 7 of the blog Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space


plzs read the rule of the road


all so note for the mods the report tools are not work it seems when will they get them fixs?


I was kidding! People do it on YouTube all the time. Lighten up a little.
Wow. Eastern Pac average is 3 and there have been 8 so far.(strong storms) That is a big jump. Is that the Neutral/positive Elnino working on those #s?
comment re move plzs re lode your the blog pages
Quoting 2. QueensWreath:

Look at that. Street-scape trees toppling over again. When will municipalities ever learn?

So the weather guys and gals say a better chance of subtropical in the Gulf. Stay tuned.


You do realize a lot of people enjoy a little green downtown right? It keeps it from looking too depressing.

Downtown Tallahassee has a lot of very large, oak trees that are likely older than the city itself. It gives things a nice feel, and helps reduce the dirty, trapped feeling of urban areas.
Quoting Jedkins01:


You do realize a lot of people enjoy a little green downtown right? It keeps it from looking too depressing.

Downtown Tallahassee has a lot of very large, oak trees that are likely older than the city itself. It gives things a nice feel, and helps reduce the dirty, trapped feeling of urban areas.


I do. And I love it. BUT. Those trees can and should be planted in the larger rootable area outside of the sidewalk street confinement. I am sure the homeowners and business would not mind the planting occurring on their property with permission and maintenance. There are also many vertically growing shrubs that can be planted in these narrow spaces that can be trimmed to a mushroom shape. This would provide shade. Stop vehicles from crossing over sidewalks and not be as deadly as running into a tree or having a massive tree fall on buildings,cars, pedestrians. Its called stormscaping. It can be done and has the added benefit of variety and pollution absorption.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Its interesting that it is the Euro that develops this system in the BOC more than the GFS does

I always make the last post before a new blog. This is from the former blog....

Here's what Mobile has to say:

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE IN THE WEEK.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

Birmingham pretty much agrees with this assessment. No matter what kind of low develops in the Gulf, it looks like it will affect Cuba and south Florida, and then maybe parts of coastal east Florida as it turns to the NE. Given the synoptics over the CONUS, it looks like the Euro is going overboard on this system. Unless there's some big change over the next 10 days, I can't see how this system is even going to bring rain to the northern Gulf let alone have any tropical storm effects. Of course, being 7-10 days out, this is all subject to change. The GFS hasn't been very reliable developing a Gulf system this season.
12Z GEM
Very similar to the GFS but much stronger - but the GEM tends to do that.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
12Z GEM
Very similar to the GFS but much stronger - but the GEM tends to do that.



ECMWF is slightly stronger than the GFS. I suspect at least we'll get a surge of moisture from this.

You'd think this is Colorado with the weather in NWFL today.
well, gonzalo is probably extratropical by now. agreed?
Quoting 62901IL:
well, gonzalo is probably extratropical by now. agreed?


One would think so but the last I looked it wasnt conclusive. But that was 6 hrs ago LOL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located several hundred miles east of Newfoundland.

A low pressure system has developed over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche just to the southeast of Vera Cruz, Mexico. Some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next
several days while it moves east-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a couple of hundred miles west of the Canary Islands. This
system is producing gale-force winds, and the low could gradually
acquire subtropical characteristics during the next several days
while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward over relatively
warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 14. CybrTeddy:



ECMWF is slightly stronger than the GFS. I suspect at least we'll get a surge of moisture from this.




I do think with the amount of moisture there, that Central Florida will also likely get rain from this
Quoting 12. sar2401:

Quoting Hurricanes101:
Its interesting that it is the Euro that develops this system in the BOC more than the GFS does

I always make the last post before a new blog. This is from the former blog....

Here's what Mobile has to say:

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE IN THE WEEK.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

Birmingham pretty much agrees with this assessment. No matter what kind of low develops in the Gulf, it looks like it will affect Cuba and south Florida, and then maybe parts of coastal east Florida as it turns to the NE. Given the synoptics over the CONUS, it looks like the Euro is going overboard on this system. Unless there's some big change over the next 10 days, I can't see how this system is even going to bring rain to the northern Gulf let alone have any tropical storm effects. Of course, being 7-10 days out, this is all subject to change. The GFS hasn't been very reliable developing a Gulf system this season.


That was yesterdays 12z fluke run. The 0z is different.
Quoting 4. reedzone:

I guess Dr. Masters doesn't agree with the EURO solution of bringing the mess to North Florida.. Does make more sense for it to head south. Thanks for the update doc! :)


That was yesterdays 12z run. It was an outlier.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


ECMWF is slightly stronger than the GFS. I suspect at least we'll get a surge of moisture from this.



Yeah, rain at the very least.
I don't know how crossing the Yucatan will affect the formation/strength of the low.

A more southerly track puts the low over more land but there's less shear to the south.

It will be interesting to see how everything comes together to form this low.
Quoting 20. weatherbro:



That was yesterdays 12z fluke run. The 0z is different.


which 12Z run is the "fluke"? GFS or EURO?
While the potential for rain in Florida will no doubt dominate the blog in the coming days, we've also got a fairly significant, long duration coastal storm on the way for the Northeast this week.



You can stop by my blog for more information on that if you'd like.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
While the potential for rain in Florida will no doubt dominate the blog in the coming days, we've also got a fairly significant, long duration coastal storm on the way for the Northeast this week.



You can stop by my blog for more information on that if you'd like.


Also an interesting system.
A non-tropical low moving out into the Atlantic and quickly spinning up as it moves up the coast.
I'm wondering if the low will take on any tropical characteristics or be more of a nor’easter.
12Z ECMWF at 48 hours

Again, the ECMWF is sneaky and puts a low in the western Caribbean.

92L...

12z ECMWF at 72 hours
Twin Lows - GOM/BOC and western Caribbean (must be a large broad low circulation at this point).
Through 96hrs European has low pressure similar to UK in NW Caribbean sea.
12Z ECMWF at 96 hours

One 1007mb low at the top on the Yucatan.

Quoting 241. CaicosRetiredSailor:

(From 10/18/2014)

In 2008 Hanna formed ( was named ) right over Provo here in the Turks and Caicos Islands and then it went south to Hispaniola weakened to a named tropical storm, returned as such right through the TCI, and then Cat. 3 Ike hit us ....all this was within SEVEN days!

Quote: Awesome! You are very correct about Hanna and Ike hitting the Turks and Caicos Islands in 2008!!! This has been ADDED the list of areas hit by hurricanes twice in one season - since 1995, to affect a location!~ Thank YOU! Thanks for all the updates/comment from WU members.
12Z ECMWF at 120 hours
With the departing TROF shown by ECMWF it would seem prudent to think that the AOI would get caught by the building High and stay in the E GOM before resuming a NE type track... but we'll see what it ends up being.
Quoting 32. hurricane23:




Semi-progressive mid-level, cold core trough over Louisiana.
Quoting WxLogic:
With the departing TROF shown by ECMWF it would seem prudent to think that the AOI would get caught by the building High and stay in the E GOM before resuming a NE type track... but we'll see what it ends up being.


Possibly sub-tropical there
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located several hundred miles east of Newfoundland.

1. A low pressure system has developed over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche just to the southeast of Vera Cruz, Mexico. Some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next
several days while it moves east-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a couple of hundred miles west of the Canary Islands. This
system is producing gale-force winds, and the low could gradually
acquire subtropical characteristics during the next several days
while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward over relatively
warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
invest 92L
WHERE IS INVEST 92L
Quoting 36. hurricane23:



Possibly sub-tropical there
Somewhere north of Tampa...Maybe.

Improved since this AM:

Quoting hurricane23:


Possibly sub-tropical there


Specially this time of the year.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
WHERE IS INVEST 92L
NE Atlantic.
Quoting 38. hurricanes2018:

WHERE IS INVEST 92L

Got a nice Aqua pass of 92L. It's been out there a day or so, just looking more tropical now. That is Africa in the lower right corner..


Still pretty cold-core..
92L and Gonzalo..

Think 92L will become Hanna and the future 93L could be Isaias
Quoting 45. Hurricanes101:

Think 92L will become Hanna and the future 93L could be Isaias



not really most of this is still parts of TRUDY so we could be looking at TRUDY re fourming in the boc has when a storm moves in from the E pac they dont chaged names any more
Quoting 14. CybrTeddy:



ECMWF is slightly stronger than the GFS. I suspect at least we'll get a surge of moisture from this.




Not sure if there is enough consistency yet to buy into it. I'll wait for more consistency and better model agreement.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
123 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VAZ503-504-WVZ501-505-506-200130-
/O.UPG.KLWX.FZ.A.0004.141020T0400Z-141020T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0005.141020T0600Z-141020T1300Z/
WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN GRANT-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...BAYARD...
MOUNT STORM...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
123 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM
EDT MONDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...UNPROTECTED VEGETATION SENSITIVE TO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE KILLED OR DAMAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL SENSITIVE CROPS AND OTHER VEGETATION.

&&

$$
Quoting Tazmanian:



not really most of this is still parts of TRUDY so we could be looking at TRUDY re fourming in the boc has when a storm moves in from the E pac they dont chaged names any more
Trudy's low-pressure Center has dissipated and a new low is forming in the Bay of Campeche.
Could be a snow maker for the higher elevations. Hope the ski resorts get one of these right before the Thanksgiving holiday; always good for business.


Quoting 24. MAweatherboy1:

While the potential for rain in Florida will no doubt dominate the blog in the coming days, we've also got a fairly significant, long duration coastal storm on the way for the Northeast this week.



You can stop by my blog for more information on that if you'd like.
Good evening gang. I still like to remember the precious night we spent together watching Gonzalo and listening to Bermuda's crickets in the silence of the eye. It was so amazing.

Today weathergods donated a last spell of summer to us in this so far way too warm October.

Temperatures today in Germany were up to 25 C = 77 F:


A little video I took this afternoon at Rhine River (in my city Mainz) with original sound track of the little combo in the middle of the video (a recently opened restaurant at this spot, named "Big Easy", is dedicated to recall the atmosphere of New Orleans; good location to do this, I think):



Stormy outlook with Ex-Gonzalo:

Winds 950hpa for Europe on Tuesday (GFS):

Quoting 44. hydrus:

92L and Gonzalo..




Gonzalo's got to be post-tropical now.
This is at the very least subtropical.

From the Miami NWS Disco...

.LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK.
55. 7544
Quoting 54. GeoffreyWPB:

From the Miami NWS Disco...

.LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK.


hymm could get interesting
The North Pacific has finally taken on the look of a traditionally positive PDO, with cold water extending eastward from Japan.

Quoting 56. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The North Pacific has finally taken on the look of a traditionally positive PDO, with cold water extending eastward from Japan.




Interesting if that's what's caused the enso to be shy and it's effects for the next couple of seasons. Pdo cycles are is much longer than enso correct?
Quoting 57. win1gamegiantsplease:



Interesting if that's what's caused the enso to be shy and it's effects for the next couple of seasons. Pdo cycles are is much longer than enso correct?

Right. ENSO runs on the order of 1-3 years on average, while the PDO is a multidecadal oscillation on the timescale of 30-40 years on average. I should point out that, while this year has featured a predominantly positive PDO, we just (in the mid-2000s) flipped to the multidecadal negative phase. Short-term variability is not at all uncommon though.

Positive PDOs are typically a plus for strong El Ninos, but there's more to the puzzle than just that.
Quoting 53. CybrTeddy:

This is at the very least subtropical.




Looking at the ECMWF 12z precip fields, the system has the appearance of a mid-latitude cyclone further supported by the 850mb temps.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
12Z ECMWF at 96 hours

One 1007mb low at the top on the Yucatan.

One thing to keep in mind is that all three models developed a low in the SW Caribbean and BOC that should have been there yesterday ae I remember. The models haven't been good with timing or development. We have a trough that will come down through Texas on Tuesday that should give enough energy to develop the low. OTOH, there are also a series of strong but dry fronts that will extend all the way down into the SE and into the Gulf for at least the next 10 days. This should make it impossible for a weak low to get further north than maybe central Florida, with south Florida being more likely. Except for Tuesday, I'm looking at highs in the mid-70's and lows in the mid to low 40's until Sunday, with a reinforcing shot of cold, dry air every several days. This generally not the predecessor weather to any Gulf tropical low getting up to the northern Gulf coast.
Quoting 51. barbamz:

Good evening gang. I still like to remember the precious night we spent together watching Gonzalo and listening to Bermuda's crickets in the silence of the eye. It was so amazing.

Today weathergods donated a last spell of summer to us in this so far way too warm October.

Temperatures today in Germany were up to 25 C = 77 F:


A little video I took this afternoon at Rhine River (in my city Mainz) with original sound track of the little combo in the middle of the video (a recently opened restaurant at this spot, named "Big Easy", is dedicated to recall the atmosphere of New Orleans; good location to do this, I think):



Stormy outlook with Ex-Gonzalo:

Winds 950hpa for Europe on Tuesday (GFS):



Here in Italy we have had summer like temperatures since the beginning of the month, it's fool this fall...
18Z NAM at 75 hours

The NAM is joining the group by showing a system in the BOC. NAM is a little more aggressive with it at 1004mb at 75 hours.

18Z NAM at 84 hours is similar to the Euro with lows in the BOC and the western Caribbean during the development stage.

Quoting 58. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Right. ENSO runs on the order of 1-3 years on average, while the PDO is a multidecadal oscillation on the timescale of 30-40 years on average. I should point out that, while this year has featured a predominantly positive PDO, we just (in the mid-2000s) flipped to the multidecadal negative phase. Short-term variability is not at all uncommon though.

Positive PDOs are typically a plus for strong El Ninos, but there's more to the puzzle than just that.


Ok good analysis, the effect the cold water pluming to NW North America should affect the pressure gradient in the pacific tropics versus the Atlantic. Depending on it's strength it could actually intensify high pressure in the pacific giving way to an increase in tropical cyclogenesis probability in the Atlantic.

Since hurricane andrew was a topic on the last blog, here's the likelyhood of gusts topping 200 mph. The NHC located in Coral Gables at the time recorded a 164 mph gust, north of the worst of the eyewall, and the radar blew off the building shortly thereafter. Tamiami airport reached several minutes sustained to 150 (well inland) before it went out, and a wind gust to 210 was reduced to 180 after wind tunnel tests in Perrine. All areas mentioned were north of the worst affected areas of Homestead/Florida City.

Looks to be already closed.
Quoting 54. GeoffreyWPB:

From the Miami NWS Disco...

.LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK.


Hey Geoff..
If the predicted track of this Low were more north and it did develop into a tropical cyclone, it would be a perfect disaster scenario for the Tampa region..
Quoting 60. sar2401:

One thing to keep in mind is that all three models developed a low in the SW Caribbean and BOC that should have been there yesterday ae I remember. The models haven't been good with timing or development. We have a trough that will come down through Texas on Tuesday that should give enough energy to develop the low. OTOH, there are also a series of strong but dry fronts that will extend all the way down into the SE and into the Gulf for at least the next 10 days. This should make it impossible for a weak low to get further north than maybe central Florida, with south Florida being more likely. Except for Tuesday, I'm looking at highs in the mid-70's and lows in the mid to low 40's until Sunday, with a reinforcing shot of cold, dry air every several days. This generally not the predecessor weather to any Gulf tropical low getting up to the northern Gulf coast.


Which is why as we've seen many a time this season well have to wait until a low tries to acquire tropical characteristics, models have done much better once a low has developed. Doesn't mean Florida won't see increased rainfall from the moisture but the pattern that is in place doesn't support much development as the fronts are backed by dry air. Water vapor images as of late have shown how dry the NW gulf has been.
Quoting 27. GeoffreyWPB:

92L...




Reminds me of Mrs. Grothar in the parking lot.
Umm, bad things happened to Tenerife (Canary Islands) today with one fatality so far. Culprit must have been 92L!

Thousands of tourists caught in Tenerife flash-floods that left one dead
Irish Mirror, Oct 19, 2014 18:27, By Jessica Best
Thousands of tourists holidaying in Tenerife have been caught in flash-flooding on the island.
Seven inches of rain fell in just 12 hours today, with tourists warned to stay in their hotels as landslides and fast-flowing waters led to road closures.
The island is a popular tourist destination for Irish people.
One 56-year-old woman died after suffering a heart attacks as she was swept along by flood water then became trapped under a parked car in Santa Cruz. ...



Antonio Rivera @meteolp - Tremenda foto de Santa Cruz de Tenerife, hay una victima ya mucha PRECAUCION
4:39 PM - 19 Oct 2014

More catastrophic pics on SevereWeatherEurope.

Quoting 66. pcola57:



Hey Geoff..
If the predicted track of this Low were more north and it did develop into a tropical cyclone, it would be a perfect disaster scenario for the Tampa region..


We will do our very best to hold up the shield.
Not to take eyes off the Atlantic, but the North Indian Ocean looks to produce another potentially dangerous system. This time for East Africa/The Middle East:

Euro:


GFS:


CMC:


UKMET:


The CMC/Euro both show it as a 980/981 mb hurricane outside the 5 day range. The GFS shows it becoming nothing and I can't see what the UKMET shows, but given how aggressive it is on the 5 day, I'm sure it continues to strengthen it. Definitely something to watch in the coming week. Could cause a lot of flooding in Oman/Yemen.
Quoting 61. Stefaneik:


Here in Italy we have had summer like temperatures since the beginning of the month, it's fool this fall...


Where do you live in Italy, Stefaneik? In the south?
Spanish newsreport about the flashflooding in Tenerife this morning. Really bad.






Airmasses at 7 a.m. local time this morning with 92L hitting Tenerife in the lower left corner of the pic.

Edit: Here a map of the downpour (cloud top temperatures) from wetteronline.de:

Quoting 72. barbamz:



Where do you live in Italy, Stefaneik? In the south?


Absolutely gorgeous day today in Berlin as well..
Quoting 21. weatherbro:



That was yesterdays 12z run. It was an outlier.
Hi Weatherbro! I'm with you my man, yesterdays 12z was total jive. Where are you thinking this will go?
Good Afternoon all..





back to football..
Quoting 74. largeeyes:



Absolutely gorgeous day today in Berlin as well..


Hey, largeeyes, still a true Berliner, lol? I'm glad our humble German weather appeals to you from time to time :-)


Webcam shot near Berlin this evening (camera is run by the Metereological Institut of the University in Berlin which also sells the names for our European weather systems).
Edit: eehhh, bad resolution of this pic. Sorry. I'm not so familiar with Berlin webcams.
Quoting 56. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The North Pacific has finally taken on the look of a traditionally positive PDO, with cold water extending eastward from Japan.


Humm.....I wonder if Jim Cantore will be going to the gulf coast for Hurricane Hanna this week ?......remember the models underestimated Gonzalo
Ha, I was quite pleased with it today. It has gotten quite windy this evening. I think i recognize that cloud!
Preliminary damage estimates for last week's Cyclone Hudhud are in the range of 60000-70000 crore ($9.7-11 billion 2014 USD), potentially making it the costliest cyclone on record in India. The storm killed 94 in total, most of which in Nepal where the storm's remnants led to a huge snowstorm.


Well this is new, the only 'tropical storm watch' to appear on my local wunderground forecast...

Gales/severe gales and a brief colder blast behind it will likely be the main effects though.
Ex-Hudhud-Blizzard in the Himalaya: now around 40 confirmed dead and still many more missing (divergent numbers today: around 20 or even 40?)



Amateur footage shows ferocity of blizzard in Himalayas - video
The Guardian, today (with video)
Amateur footage shot by British hiker Paul Sherridan shows the deadly blizzard that engulfed Nepal's popular Annapurna trail in the Himalayas. The footage shows Sherridan's group approaching the Thorong La pass at an altitude of 5,416 metres. A fierce blizzard later sets in. At least 39 people died on the mountain following extreme weather and avalanches this week

Good night, have a likable start into the new week, folks.
Looks like the Wundermap is having problems with the longitude.
18z GFS has a 1003mb low at 120 hours.

Quoting 79. weatherlover94:

Humm.....I wonder if Jim Cantore will be going to the gulf coast for Hurricane Hanna this week ?......remember the models underestimated Gonzalo


Not quite so... EURO was showing a Hurricane nearing the Bahamas days before Gonzalo developed. Even the GFS came on board with a Hurricane heading towards Bermuda while Gonzalo was still Invest 91L. It was a day before Gonzalo formed, when the invest was getting sheared, that the models dropped the intensity.
1000mb low very close to S. Florida (over the Keys).
18z GFS at 138 hours



Ex-Gonzalo has kept its name on the European weathermap (for tomorrow), btw. Click to enlarge.
Quoting 72. barbamz:



Where do you live in Italy, Stefaneik? In the south?

No, Florence.
The last 15 days were terrible with a continue hot and humid flow from S/SW, minimum temperature between 17°C and 20°C and maximum between 25°C and 28°C despite of the absence of sunshine with a crazy dew point that in some days reached 22°C/23°C in the afternoon with heavy showers every day.
The 10th of October LaMMa (regional weather service of Tuscany) said that we had the hottest minumum temperatures on record for october in the last seventy years, my PWS recorded a minimum of +20,3°C and some nearby town (Prato and Campi Bisenzio) up to 21°C, for comparision the average minimum temperature for october in Florence City (Osservatorio Ximeniano) is +10,6°C and the average minimum temperature of the hottest month (July) is +17,7°C.
The large amount of heat and humidity also caused heavy thunderstorms and flooding in many areas of Northern Italy (Genoa, Parma, Maremma, Southern Piedmont).
998mb low heading into the Bahamas.

If the low tracks a little further to the south it will miss Florida.
But the GFS is getting more aggressive with the low.

Quoting 89. Stefaneik:


No, Florence.
The last 15 days were terrible with a continue hot and humid flow from S/SW, minimum temperature between 17°C and 20°C and maximum between 25°C and 28°C despite of the absence of sunshine with a crazy dew point that in some days reached 22°C/23°C in the afternoon with heavy showers every day.
The 10th of October LaMMa (regional weather service of Tuscany) said that we had the hottest minumum temperatures on record for october in the last seventy years, my PWS recorded a minimum of +20,3°C and some nearby town (Prato and Campi Bisenzio) up to 21°C, for comparision the average minimum temperature for october in Florence City (Osservatorio Ximeniano) is +10,6°C and the average minimum temperature of the hottest month (July) is +17,7°C.
The large amount of heat and humidity also caused heavy thunderstorms and flooding in many areas of Northern Italy (Genoa, Parma, Maremma, Southern Piedmont).


Thank you! Well these are amazing numbers. I was aware of the severe flooding but didn't notice the unusual high temperatures in the north. Fortunately it should cool down soon.

Florence (in Celsius):


Good night for good now folks ...
Notice that it is at the 144hr run on the model. Have a feeling these runs are going to change some what by mid week. Still leaning more towards the north just a bit.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
998mb low heading into the Bahamas.

If the low tracks a little further to the south it will miss Florida.
But the GFS is getting more aggressive with the low.

Appears GFS is starting to trend further W and not getting too overly exited about letting the AOI getting caught by the TROF as before:

180HR

Quoting 82. westscotweather:



Well this is new, the only 'tropical storm watch' to appear on my local wunderground forecast...

Gales/severe gales and a brief colder blast behind it will likely be the main effects though.


Still holding tropical characteristics, the core of Gonzo is a doozie.
Wonder if the EURO and GFS will split and the model runs start going between the two, don't know if that makes any sense or not. Maybe someone could explain the difference's.
Looking more and more likely a weak to moderate Tropical storm may affect Southern Florida Towards the middle to end of this coming week if the computer models verify
ANA HAS WEAKENED...BUT REMAINS STUBBORN IN THE FACE OF STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR. SHIPS AND LGEM WEAKEN ANA TO A TROPICAL STORM
BETWEEN 12 AND 48 HOURS...BUT HAVE IT REGAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH
AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM WATER
THAT EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS 30N. HWRF/GFDL DEPICTS ANA EXCEEDING
100 KT BY 72 HOURS...LIKELY WAY TOO STRONG FOR THIS RECURVING
SYSTEM. ANA IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH 48
HOURS...FOLLOWING SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHIPS/LGEM...THEN SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN TO 75 KT FROM 48 THROUGH 120 HOURS. IT SEEMS THAT ANA
WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC BASIN FOR QUITE SOME
TIME...AT LEAST A WEEK ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

Hoping it catches a ride on the westerlies into the West Coast.
Quoting 97. BayFog:

ANA HAS WEAKENED...BUT REMAINS STUBBORN IN THE FACE OF STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR. SHIPS AND LGEM WEAKEN ANA TO A TROPICAL STORM
BETWEEN 12 AND 48 HOURS...BUT HAVE IT REGAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH
AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM WATER
THAT EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS 30N. HWRF/GFDL DEPICTS ANA EXCEEDING
100 KT BY 72 HOURS...LIKELY WAY TOO STRONG FOR THIS RECURVING
SYSTEM. ANA IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH 48
HOURS...FOLLOWING SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHIPS/LGEM...THEN SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN TO 75 KT FROM 48 THROUGH 120 HOURS. IT SEEMS THAT ANA
WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC BASIN FOR QUITE SOME
TIME...AT LEAST A WEEK ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

Hoping it catches a ride on the westerlies into the West Coast.


GFS has shown it going to Washington, and giving them most of the rain
Quoting 85. Sfloridacat5:

18z GFS has a 1003mb low at 120 hours.


Same low could affect the outer banks according to the latest GFS..

Quoting 56. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The North Pacific has finally taken on the look of a traditionally positive PDO, with cold water extending eastward from Japan.




Eastern and Central pacific still very warm...more storms for the season?
102. beell
Quoting 93. WxLogic:

Appears GFS is starting to trend further W and not getting too overly exited about letting the AOI getting caught by the TROF as before:

180HR




Wrong trough perhaps? The AOI is under the trough in the GFS.

Bermuda is getting back to normal.

Summary as of Sun Oct 19 - 8.05pm:


•Good News: Police confirm no loss of life or serious injuries during the storm, and we have a hurricane baby...with a baby boy born during the height of the storm
•BELCO: We started with over 31,000 out, now 10522 are without power. The distribution is Central 3886, City of Hamilton 141, East 2866 and West 3629. Twelve linemen from the Caribbean will be flying in on Monday
•Transportation: Causeway is open, ferries now operating, Buses will resume partial service starting around 9 am Monday. The following routes will be in effect: Routes 10 and 11 to and from Hamilton to St. George’s, and Routes 7 and 8 from Hamilton to Hitching Post layby, just short of Somerset bridge
•Airport: Re-opened this afternoon, flights are now arriving
•Cruises: Today & tomorrow's calls cancelled, Celebrity Infinity on schedule for Wed. arrival
•Tarpaulin: Govt. providing tarpaulin, collect from Warwick Camp from 8am - 8pm
•Tech: TBI opens up 30+ wi-fi hotspots to public for free for next few days | Digicel at 80%, brought in 8 technicians to help with repairs | CableVision have 5 crews out working
• All Government Offices will be open on Monday
•Banks: Clarien, HSBC & Butterfield to open on Monday
•Schools Open on Monday: BHS, MSA, Somersfield, Bermuda Institute, Warwick Academy, Saltus St John’s Rd
•Schools Closed on Monday: Saltus Cavendish, all Govt schools
•Pre-Schools: Flying Start, First Friends, Adventureland, Onionpatch, Little Learners, Heritage and Learning Zone will be closed on Monday; while Sweet Pea, Tree Trops, Cornerstone and Play With A Purpose will open on Monday.
Quoting 68. Grothar:



Reminds me of Mrs. Grothar in the parking lot.
Joke of the year. I witnessed some of that action today, and I was just looking at them, asking to myself, what are you trying to do? I just heard on the radio 3 million Canadians are supposed to visit Florida this year. I'm taking the back roads!
Quoting beell:


Wrong trough perhaps? The AOI is under the trough in the GFS.



I guess it would appear as it attempts to transition the AOI from a tropical system into a sub tropical system as it tries to merge with the cut off low.

This run is closer to the ECMWF but further to the E. Mainly on the cutting off the low which would cause the system to "hang" around longer due to weaker steering and then off to the NE later in the period.
Quoting 102. beell:



Wrong trough perhaps? The AOI is under the trough in the GFS.




Mid level double barrel lows
Quoting westscotweather:


Well this is new, the only 'tropical storm watch' to appear on my local wunderground forecast...

Gales/severe gales and a brief colder blast behind it will likely be the main effects though.

I'm guessing you are from somewhere is W Scotland am I right?
109. beell
Quoting 107. Drakoen:



Mid level double barrel lows


See your "Mid level double barrel lows" and raise you a "Spurious Vorticity?",

:)
Quoting 94. win1gamegiantsplease:



Still holding tropical characteristics, the core of Gonzo is a doozie.


Quoting Dr. J. Masters -"Despite traversing waters colder than 10°C (50°F), Gonzalo was still maintaining its tropical characteristics on Sunday morning, and had a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center."
-For these and other such qualities of Hurricane Gonzalo such as multiple EWRC. Hurricane Gonzalo definitely goes down in my estimation as one of the most impressive Atlantic October Hurricanes of all time.

Also, 92L DEFINITELY SEEMS TO BE NEAR OR AT SUBTROPICAL/ TROPICAL STORM STATUS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/ REPRESENTATION. THE SEASON IS FAR FROM OVER...SO MUCH FOR THOSE WHO WERE CONSISTENTLY BUT PREMATURELY SAYING OTHERWISE.
May God continue to Bless us All this Hurricane season!
18Z GFS has 20+ inches of rain in S FL
Getting interesting. Going to enjoy watching the show this week.

Quoting 99. hydrus:

Same low could affect the outer banks according to the latest GFS..


JB Twitter...

pm post on http://weatherbell.com showed members "Isbell" (1964) set up for Fla. 18z GFS went to it

Invest 92L

Invest 92L
Last Updated Oct 19, 2014 18 GMT
Location 32.5 20.0W Movement S
Wind 45 MPH
Invest 92L

Invest 92L
Last Updated Oct 19, 2014 18 GMT
Location 32.5 20.0W Movement S
Wind 45 MPH

winds up to 45 mph with invest 92L
Quoting 101. pablosyn:



Eastern and Central pacific still very warm...more storms for the season?

We're getting to the time of the year when the West African monsoon subsides and the number of tropical waves moving westward into the East Pacific decreases. We might get another storm or two, but we're getting close to done for the season...but what a season it has been.



INVEST 92L
Quoting 114. hurricane23:

JB Twitter...

pm post on http://weatherbell.com showed members "Isbell" (1964) set up for Fla. 18z GFS went to it


Joe probably saw it on NBC W/David Brinkley...:)
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


Which is why as we've seen many a time this season well have to wait until a low tries to acquire tropical characteristics, models have done much better once a low has developed. Doesn't mean Florida won't see increased rainfall from the moisture but the pattern that is in place doesn't support much development as the fronts are backed by dry air. Water vapor images as of late have shown how dry the NW gulf has been.
Indeed. It's interesting to see what the models develop over time but foolish to believe you actually know what will happen when, where, or how intense. This is the kind of late October setup that could give us anything from just a long fetch of moisture dumping on Cuba, south Florida, and the Bahamas to a strong tropical storm or even a low intensity hurricane. There may be even more implications for the east coast after this low finally clears the Gulf. The is a great example of a system that will probably become clear about three days before it actually makes its move. Although I know it will happen, all the speculation of what city gets flattened isn't very productive and will likely turn out to be wrong. I'm just wishcasting some of the rain gets up here on the Gulf Coast so my lawn can get some water but that's not likely to happen either.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
18Z GFS has 20+ inches of rain in S FL

are you critting me?
123. beell
Quoting 122. 62901IL:


are you critting me?


No crit!
15" over Miami from Thursday-Saturday. Nary a drop over Orlando.
(Hey look! I made a hype post!)
Quoting beell:


No crit!
15" over Miami from Thursday-Saturday. Nary a drop over Orlando.
(Hey look! I made a hype post!)

okay, is 92L A Tropical Cyclone or a Subtropical cyclone? I vote subtropical.
hello...


lotsa sheer in the GOM atm
128. beell
Quoting 125. 62901IL:


okay, is 92L A Tropical Cyclone or a Subtropical cyclone? I vote subtropical.


Skyepony has posted the Phase Space diagrams for 92L this afternoon. Non-tropical, cold core.

NHC describes 92L as "A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores".


1000-500 mb thickness chart from the GFS shows the colder (lower thickness) height contours completely enveloping 92L. Sub-trop may be a possibility ADDED: at some point but without a carpet bombing of dropsondes around the system, I'd have to vote "No" to a sub-trop.



But your vote is just as meaningful as mine!
18z Navgem


Quoting 111. SFLWeatherman:

18Z GFS has 20 inches of rain in S FL

whoo...that's Biblical proportions --not quite matching the NHC forecast for the week --
Long term...
the forecast for the middle to end of the work week for South Florida will depend on the disturbance over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. At this time...NHC is showing a 30 percent chance of develop(ment) of this low into a tropical system in the next 5 days as it moves slowly to the east northeast.
Even if this low does not develop into a tropical system...the tropical moisture will likely increase over the area from the south.
Therefore...the probability of precipitation have been raised a little bit for end of this week into early next week over South Florida.
I'm expecting 4 more named storms for the season, with 2 hurricanes, 1 being major, i originally predicted 12/7/3, that would be a season with 11/8/3 (1) Td, that would be pretty close let's see if it pans out! This season has been a surprise with quality over quantity!
Quoting 128. beell:



Skyepony has posted the Phase Space diagrams for 92L this afternoon. Non-tropical, cold core.

NHC describes 92L as "A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores".


1000-500 mb thickness chart from the GFS shows the colder (lower thickness) height contours completely enveloping 92L. Sub-trop may be a possibility but without a carpet bombing of dropsondes around the system, I'd have to vote "No" to a sub-trop.



But your vote is just as meaningful as mine!


Area between 40 and 45 west looks interesting.
Quoting 132. Drakoen:






I haven't a clue what that means
137. beell
Quoting 132. Drakoen:






Negative anomalies up to about 10 km or 250-300 mb. Am I reading that right?
Quoting 124. Grothar:


its gonna rain
139. 882MB
Quoting 134. Saltydogbwi1:

Area between 40 and 45 west looks interesting.


Just noticed that too 850MB vorticity, has increased some, and the newest run of the NAVGEM develops it and sends it too, the northern islands, too much shear, but yeah an area too watch.
After Hurricane Gonzalo....

I took those pictures today :-)

Gonzalo aftermath

The vegetation suffered a lot from the wind! We had very strong gusts mostly over 100MPH, and a pic gust a little below 130MPH... which is impressive (and strange) for just a 75MPH hurricane!!! Some crazy things definitely happen inside the eyewall of a strengthening hurricane!

Damage to trees actually look more like what a strong cat 2 would do...

143. beell
SPC's take on one of the features involved in any tropical development in the Caribbean/Gulf this coming week.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE THREAT FOR APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE SLOWLY MOVING NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL
LIKELY MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY
EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY.

SCANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL-SRN
PLAINS WILL BE LIKELY BE SCOURED BY A COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. MODEL VARIABILITY/UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

..SMITH.. 10/19/2014
Quoting 140. CaribBoy:

After Hurricane Gonzalo....

I took those pictures today :-)

Gonzalo aftermath




Glad all is well bro!
Protected VS Exposed

GFS



ECMWF




Please use device below for closer image


Quoting 144. stormpetrol:



Glad all is well bro!

Yeah everything is back to normal now... but we need a lot of rain to help the trees :-) It's very brown in many places.
Quoting CaribBoy:
The vegetation suffered a lot from the wind! We had very strong gusts mostly over 100MPH, and a pic gust a little below 130MPH... which is impressive (and strange) for just a 75MPH hurricane!!! Some crazy things definitely happen inside the eyewall of a strengthening hurricane!

Damage to trees actually look more like what a strong cat 2 would do...

Looks like the trees and other vegitation took quite a hit. I wonder if they were weakened by your long term drought? The structures in your pictures looked almost completely undamaged. I know antennas and, looking at the antenna and mast in the #5968 picture, that type of marine band VHF antenna is only rated to 70 mph with a strong and well constructed mounting. That mounting wouldn't have passed my test. The trees must have already been suffering when Gonzalo hit.
Quoting 148. sar2401:

Looks like the trees and other vegitation took quite a hit. I wonder if they were weakened by your long term drought? The structures in your pictures looked almost completely undamaged. I know antennas and, looking at the antenna and mast in the #5968 picture, that type of marine band VHF antenna is only rated to 70 mph with a strong and well constructed mounting. That mounting wouldn't have passed my test. The trees must have already been suffering when Gonzalo hit.


Very possible, although the island got much needed rain during August and September and was a little bit greener than before. June/july have been exceptionally dry :/
Quoting beell:


No crit!
15" over Miami from Thursday-Saturday. Nary a drop over Orlando.
(Hey look! I made a hype post!)
And we'll hold you to it also...:-)

My guess is that this develops into a slow moving, elongated trough of low pressure that has nowhere to go but east, and pretty slowly at that. It can't move north due to the strength of the ridge and the weak steering currents will slowly move it along east until it rounds the bend over the Florida Strait. It looks like there will be a sharp cutoff in rainfall starting somewhere just south of Scott's house. For once, 15" to 20" of rain over three days or so for south Florida doesn't look like hype.


Left : yesterday. Right : late september
After smacking Bermuda, Gonzalo is headed for the motherland.
155. SLU
Quoting 149. CaribBoy:








Wow that's some heavy damage to the foliage for a weak cat 1 hurricane. The damage looks more like what we'd see in a 100 mph cat 2 but I'm glad you got your storm man. My turn next :D.
Quoting 155. SLU:



Wow that's some heavy damage to the foliage for a weak cat 1 hurricane. The damage looks more like what we'd see in a 100 mph cat 2 but I'm glad you got your storm man. My turn next :D.


Surprisingly, Earl was a 115MPH (strengthening) hurricane with the center only 35 miles to the north... but didn't produce stronger winds than Gonzalo here. Both storms produced gusts near 125MPH and sustained winds around 80MPH. In fact the effects of Gonzalo are very similar to what Earl did.

Anyway, I'm glad the 2014 season was able to produce a well organized and steadily intensifying system in the MDR east of the Lesser Antilles. Maybe the sign that we may see a more normal MDR activity next year during august and september :-)

Lol I also hope you get your storm next year... a well organized but not a strong one. I think a slow moving 55Kts TS with very intense convection is fine. Gonzalo was no joke, the sound of the wind blowing through the trees was awesome. I will be honest, it was scary but I liked it. Now we really need the rain to help.
I found Grothar's schoolwork assignments from 1st grade, and posted them on my blog
158. SLU
Quoting 156. CaribBoy:



Surprisingly, Earl was a 115MPH (strengthening) hurricane with the center only 35 miles to the north... but didn't produce stronger winds than Gonzalo here. Both storms produced gusts near 125MPH and sustained winds around 80MPH. In fact the effects of Gonzalo are very similar to what Earl did.

Anyway, I'm glad the 2014 season was able to produce a well organized and steadily intensifying system in the MDR east of the Lesser Antilles. Maybe the sign that we may see a more normal MDR activity next year during august and september :-)

Lol I also hope you get your storm next year... a well organized but not a strong one. I think a slow moving 55Kts TS with very intense convection is fine. Gonzalo was no joke, the sound of the wind blowing through the trees was awesome. I will be honest, it was scary but I liked it. Now we really need the rain to help.



Lol yes Gonzalo was no ordinary cat 1 based on reports from Antigua to Anguilla. I personally believe the intensity through the islands was downplayed by the NHC by 5 - 10 kts based on eye witness reports, videos and damage photos.
Quoting 131. stormpetrol:

I'm expecting 4 more named storms for the season, with 2 hurricanes, 1 being major, i originally predicted 12/7/3, that would be a season with 11/8/3 (1) Td, that would be pretty close let's see if it pans out! This season has been a surprise with quality over quantity!


I predicted 9/3/1 back in May (before I joined the blog), and you're right, quality over quantity! It only takes one. It's like the "two weeks" scene from the original total recall, "get ready for a surprise", as in dead Atlantic season suddenly springs to life.
Quoting 155. SLU:



Wow that's some heavy damage to the foliage for a weak cat 1 hurricane. The damage looks more like what we'd see in a 100 mph cat 2 but I'm glad you got your storm man. My turn next :D.


No it's my turn. You can't have it.
Quoting KoritheMan:


No it's my turn. You can't have it.
I'm agreeing with you, it's our turn.
ok...i have to say i love TWC american supernatural. just for the record there is no such thing as curses or luck weather its bad or good. you can not truly predict something that is on a repeat cycle. if it has happen before it will happen again...night night :)
Quoting 161. HurricaneAndre:

I'm agreeing with you, it's our turn.


Nothing since Isaac. That needs to change.

Or at least the Gulf Coast as a whole needs something. Cristobal could've been such an awesome chase.
Quoting 149. CaribBoy:








It looks like you guys have been through terrible drought, I see a lot of bushes and trees that look brown or are missing leaves. Either that, or was it salt spray and just wind damage from the hurricane?

I know where I live back home in the Tampa Bay area, I live by the coast in Pinellas County in that little Peninsula across Tampa Bay. When we get tropical systems there, winds are very intense in Pinellas because Pinellas behaves like an island having mostly water around, during strong wind events it gets much stronger winds than surrounding areas during tropical cyclones and windy days.

During these events, salt spray from strong, consistent sustained winds can temporarily brown all the leaves and make a lot of trees lose leaves and small branches after the storm. Hopefully that's all that happened there, and not drought. Usually the trees and other plants recover several months later just fine. Palms recover the fastest being more salt resistant from coastal existence.
Good night all... the weather is back to boring mode here xD

But, who knows... maybe the NAVGEM will be right with the wave in the CATL. Would be interesting.

Quoting 165. CaribBoy:

Good night all... the weather is back to boring mode here xD

But, who knows... maybe the NAVGEM will be right with the wave in the CATL. Would be interesting.




NAVGEM is like just barely a step up above climatology dude. I could do a Satanic incantation and have a better chance at making it happen through that.
Quoting 164. Jedkins01:



It looks like you guys have been through terrible drought, I see a lot of bushes and trees that look brown or are missing leaves. Either that, or was it salt spray and just wind damage from the hurricane?

I know where I live back home in the Tampa Bay area, I live by the coast in Pinellas County in that little Peninsula across Tampa Bay. When we get tropical systems there, winds are very intense in Pinellas because Pinellas behaves like an island having mostly water around, during strong wind events it gets much stronger winds than surrounding areas during tropical cyclones and windy days.

During these events, salt spray from strong, consistent sustained winds can temporarily brown all the leaves and make a lot of trees lose leaves and small branches after the storm. Hopefully that's all that happened there, and not drought. Usually the trees and other plants recover several months later just fine. Palms recover the fastest being more salt resistant from coastal existence.


Although we experienced a bad drought, those trees were healthy before the hurricane thanks to the heavy rains we had last month. Salt spray + hurricane force winds explain why they look so bad today. It's not the first time, and certainly not the last. But fortunately nature will indeed recover.. slowly :-)
Quoting 166. KoritheMan:



NAVGEM is like just barely a step up above climatology dude. I could do a Satanic incantation and have a better chance at making it happen through that.


Lol
Quoting 167. CaribBoy:



Although we experienced a bad drought, those trees were healthy before the hurricane thanks to the heavy rains we had last month. Salt spray + hurricane force winds explain why they look so bad today. It's not the first time, and certainly not the last. But fortunately nature will indeed recover.. slowly :-)


That makes sense, that's what I figured as I've seen that before in my area, good to know it wasn't the result of extreme drought!
Quoting KoritheMan:


Nothing since Isaac. That needs to change.

Or at least the Gulf Coast as a whole needs something. Cristobal could've been such an awesome chase.
Yep, we need something to track, but according to the NWS , no bad weather for the next 7-10 days.
Quoting 170. HurricaneAndre:

Yep, we need something to track, but according to the NWS , no bad weather for the next 7-10 days.


Euro unfortunately no longer showing the northern Gulf Coast solution with the Bay of Campeche cloudiness. That's more in line with climatology as well.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Euro unfortunately no longer showing the northern Gulf Coast solution with the Bay of Campeche cloudiness. That's more in line with climatology as well.


Uh...gets left behind



Quoting 172. hurricane23:



Uh...gets left behind






posting this stuff over 5 days is ridiculas. Anything after 3 days is up in the air as there isn't anything there yet. The energy will be a combination of LLM going from the eastern pacific and a tropical wave nearing Nic-Honduras that will move N and combine into a low pressure in 3 days near the Yucitan. Where it goes and how much it develops is to far off.
Quoting 137. beell:



Negative anomalies up to about 10 km or 250-300 mb. Am I reading that right?


Yup then stratospheric warming.
no wounder why the GFS and ever other mode runs is droping the gulf storm wind shear is 60kt or higher

what faces it 92L if it fourms may be are last name storm of the season so we will end the season with 8 name storms wish is not bad for 2014 not bad at all if we get too 8 name storms that would put us with 2006 and 2009 and 2013 hurricane seasons

and too add too my last post any thing that dos fourm in the gulf at this time of year will be a SD or STS or a EXTRATROPICAL storm
Quoting 175. Tazmanian:

no wounder why the GFS and ever other mode runs is droping the gulf storm wind shear is 60kt or higher

what faces it 92L if it fourms may be are last name storm of the season so we will end the season with 8 name storms wish is not bad for 2014 not bad at all if we get too 8 name storms that would put us with 2006 and 2009 and 2013 hurricane seasons




Sorry to burst your bubble, Taz, but 2009 and 2006 featured 9 and 10 storms, respectively (2006 made 10 with the addition of the unnamed July tropical storm which formed ahead of Tropical Storm Beryl).
Good morning folks. Here in addition to posts #69 and #73 a compilation of videos of the epic flash flooding produced by 92L yesterday on Tenerife (the video gets worse with every take):



92L this morning (click to enlarge).


--------------------------------------

Meanwhile in Mexico ("Trudy"):

Mudslides from rains kill 6 in southern Mexico
AP News | Oct 19, 2014

---------------------

In western Europe we are awaiting a significant plunge of temperatures tonight/tomorrow because of approaching Ex-Gonzalo.



Current Satpic (saved). You see E-Gonzalo in the upper left corner. Click to enlarge.



93L
I'm assuming that the models are forecasting the shear to relax, cause right now at 40-60kts, nothing is going to develop.
182. beell
Quoting 174. Drakoen:



Yup then stratospheric warming.


Or as some would call it...the tropopause!
:)
Quoting 183. LargoFl:


What happened to the GFS hurricane from last week? Did not see the shear coming?
93L actually looks pretty good.


widespread 2-3 inches of rain in California
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.
This system has some potential to become a tropical cyclone during
the next two to three days while it moves slowly eastward to
east-northeastward, before it interacts and possibly merges with a
frontal system towards the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Good morning guys I see 93L is now upped to 30%/40%

At this rate we might even see red marker maybe later today/tonight or tomorrow
AL, 93, 2014102006, 192N, 957W, 20, 1009, LO
AL, 93, 2014102012, 195N, 954W, 25, 1008, LO
Quoting 189. wunderkidcayman:

Good morning guys I see 93L is now upped to 30%/40%

At this rate we might even see red marker maybe later today/tonight or tomorrow


but how does it form in such a high sheer environment
Quoting nwobilderburg:


but how does it form in such a high sheer environment


Shear isn't that bad in the southern BOC. So we could possibly see a T.D. form down there.

But with the shear really high across the GOM, the system will probably remain weak.
92L looks huge.

Quoting SFLWeatherman:


Too bad the Alvarado radar down in the BOC doesn't work. For some reason it hasn't worked in a long time and they don't seem to want to fix it.
At least the Sabancuy radar works on the east side of the BOC.
Quoting 194. nwobilderburg:



but how does it form in such a high sheer environment
Would need an AC. It has warm water, and will definitely spread copious rain .
Good Morning
202. SLU
Food for thought...

G'morning too...


Detroit Lions thump New orleans Saints in Detroit, 24-23.

Dr. Masters wins the internet.

: )
Looks like whatever forms in the GOM will be affecting extreme South FL later in the week, still too early to tell, and im pretty confident north to central FL isnt going to get hammered with flooding rains as some of the models suggested last week. But for now, the beautiful weather continues for me here near Tallahassee. woo hoo.



The next two weeks looks like below average precip for most of the country except for my friends down in the keys.

Good Morning!

Wow, watching 92L and 93L.

92L already has gale-force winds, located in the far eastern Atlantic. It just needs more tropical characteristics and T-storms near its center.

93L seems to be developing in the Bay of Campeche, but for now ... wind shear is still high in the area.

Both systems have a chance to become the Atlantic's next named storm! "H" and "I" ... it is a 'wait and see' situation!

Which one will get there first?!
Quoting nwobilderburg:


but how does it form in such a high sheer environment

It may be high shear now but what about tonight or tomorrow or day after or Thurs or Fri
That is the question
Quoting 202. SLU:

Food for thought...


HAARP!.lol.Well it looks like the work of Captain Trough Save the U.S has done it's job all season long.
Basically what I'm saying is that there is a upper level anticyclone over Mexico that is repositioning itself over 93L the forecast calls for this anticyclone to be over 93L through its time over the GOM, NW Carib, and extreme W Atlantic/Bahamas/Florida area

Looking good.
Good Morning Three. Too early to know what will happen with the BOC disturbance. The whole area wants to "stream" towards Cuba and the Florida Straights along with the preveiling winds. It will either form or stream across those areas, including South Florida, as a rain event. We will not know the answer to that question until about Wednesday so we just watch and wait and keep an eye on persistent convection and shear levels in the longer term.
Was there a massive defection, or was this posted late yesterday. There are usually more than 200 posts on here after a day.

Looks like the Nasa robots have lived through the comet passing so far. I'm bummed there isn't more cool imagery streaming from them.
Has to be tough being a tv met.. Ratings are down so here, hold this Mastiff puppy while you do your weather thing..

From US National Weather Service Miami Florida
Heavy rainfall is possible late this week over South Florida, as a disturbance over Southwest Gulf Of Mexico could move towards South Florida. This is a highly uncertain forecast, but if this materializes the image below is showing the possible rainfall amounts across South Florida for an 48 hour time frame between Thursday and Friday.
NASA GEOS-5 still takes 93L near south FL but then more east & back into the Carolinas.





93L is steadily moving at 5mph to the NE. GFS run looks a little too far S in the BOC.
We may see Invest 93L slowly organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next few days while it drifts east-northeastward, but the environment is nowhere near conducive for significant development. A lopsided, wet cyclone at best seems possible before it begins to interact with a frontal boundary at the end of this week.
Quoting 205. WxGuy2014:

Looks like whatever forms in the GOM will be affecting extreme South FL later in the week, still too early to tell, and im pretty confident north to central FL isnt going to get hammered with flooding rains as some of the models suggested last week. But for now, the beautiful weather continues for me here near Tallahassee. woo hoo.


Yea, this is looking like a non-event for Central Fl and Northward. I don't see any model support to suggest otherwise. Too bad, we are entering the dry season and October tropical rains are very beneficial.
i hop you guys are reading the fine print what the nhc is saying about 93L

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.
This system has some potential to become a tropical cyclone during
the next two to three days while it moves slowly eastward to
east-northeastward, before it interacts and possibly merges with a
frontal system towards the end of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

and if it dos get name it looks like it will be subtropical
Quoting 217. TropicalAnalystwx13:

We may see Invest 93L slowly organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next few days while it drifts east-northeastward, but the environment is nowhere near conducive for significant development. A lopsided, wet cyclone at best seems possible before it begins to interact with a frontal boundary at the end of this week.


that why am thinking more like a subtropical storm
Maybe recon will investigate 93L this week. I think so.
Closest two buoys to the BOC disturbance.

The one to the North; winds gusting but high pressure:
Station 42055
NDBC
Location:
22.203N 94Wbr style="font-family: Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Date:Mon, 20 Oct 2014 12:50:00 UTCbr style="font-family: Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">
Winds:ENE (70) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt

Significant Wave Height:6.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period:6 sec
Mean Wave Direction:E (83)
Atmospheric Pressure:29.81 in and rising
Air Temperature:82.2 F
Dew Point:74.3 F
Water Temperature:83.5 F

On the coast closest to the disturbance: minimal wind and high pressure:
Station SACV4
EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Location:
19.174N 96.093W
Date:Mon, 20 Oct 2014 13:00:00 UTC
Winds:N (350) at 8.9 kt gusting to 9.9 kt
Atmospheric Pressure:29.76 in and rising
Air Temperature:79.9 F
Dew Point:75.4 F

The broad cyclonic circulation is there with the winds out of the E-NE to the North and from the N at the coast on the Western Edge of the disturbance but no Cigar yet.........................
I think still too early to be certain. Will also be interesting to see what happens once it goes off the SE Atlantic coast.

Quoting 218. jrweatherman:



Yea, this is looking like a non-event for Central Fl and Northward. I don't see any model support to suggest otherwise. Too bad, we are entering the dry season and October tropical rains are very beneficial.
I believe 92L and 93L may become named systems. This would give us the H and I named storm. There's also the month of November which could squeeze out one named storm either in the Western Caribbean or a lone straggler out in the central Atlantic. Out of either of these, maybe one could briefly become a hurricane, so it would not be unreasonable to end the season with 10/7/2, making it slightly more active than 2006 and 2009. This would not be bad, considering all the negative factors for tropical cyclone formation that have been present this season.
Quoting 217. TropicalAnalystwx13:
We may see Invest 93L slowly organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next few days while it drifts east-northeastward, but the environment is nowhere near conducive for significant development. A lopsided, wet cyclone at best seems possible before it begins to interact with a frontal boundary at the end of this week.
When will the E-NE drift start? Its moving NE at 5mph hour.
Quoting Tazmanian:
i hop you guys are reading the fine print what the nhc is saying about 93L

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.
This system has some potential to become a tropical cyclone during
the next two to three days while it moves slowly eastward to
east-northeastward, before it interacts and possibly merges with a
frontal system towards the end of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

and if it dos get name it looks like it will be subtropical


Or you are just reading the fine print wrong
Maybe it becomes a Tropical storm then merges with a front
As its stated
93L will have to drift E-NE to develope. The GOM shear is brutal.
The early models are showing the two different scenarios which are possible with 93L. Some models move it straight into South or central Florida, but there is a scenario which moves it into the extreme NW Caribbean, over Cuba, then into South Florida and the Bahamas as a tropical storm, which would move the time frame closer to the weekend. Right now, that is a very plausible solution. Either way, there will be a lot of rain somewhere.



Quoting 224. lobdelse81:

I believe 92L and 93L may become named systems. This would give us the H and I named storm. There's also the month of November which could squeeze out one named storm either in the Western Caribbean or a lone straggler out in the central Atlantic. Out of either of these, maybe one could briefly become a hurricane, so it would not be unreasonable to end the season with 10/7/2, making it slightly more active than 2006 and 2009. This would not be bad, considering all the negative factors for tropical cyclone formation that have been present this season.
Well said!

The Atlantic 2014 hurricane season seems to be "stretched out," possibly lasting into November, and Yes! It is not shut-off yet!
Oh, there is remarkably little severe weather in the US today.
Quoting 224. lobdelse81:

I believe 92L and 93L may become named systems. This would give us the H and I named storm. There's also the month of November which could squeeze out one named storm either in the Western Caribbean or a lone straggler out in the central Atlantic. Out of either of these, maybe one could briefly become a hurricane, so it would not be unreasonable to end the season with 10/7/2, making it slightly more active than 2006 and 2009. This would not be bad, considering all the negative factors for tropical cyclone formation that have been present this season.



where are you getting 10 from ??? TD 2 was not a name storm so that olny give us 9 name storms for te season
Quoting 228. Grothar:
The early models are showing the two different scenarios which are possible with 93L. Some models move it straight into South or central Florida, but there is a scenario which moves it into the extreme NW Caribbean, over Cuba, then into South Florida and the Bahamas as a tropical storm, which would move the time frame closer to the weekend. Right now, that is a very plausible solution. Either way, there will be a lot of rain somewhere.



If 93L takes the low ride across the tip of the Yucatan and into the NW Caribbean....I think we are looking at a healthy Tropical storm.
and there a ch of 92 and 93L not be comeing name storms at all wish will still put us at 7 or 8 name storms for the season so will this have too see
Quoting 203. Patrap:

G'morning too...


Detroit Lions thump New orleans Saints in Detroit, 24-23.

Dr. Masters wins the internet.

: )
Lions beat the Saints.....Thats like the Indians beating the Yankees...Did the world start rotating east to west while I slept.?
Quoting 192. GeoffreyWPB:


That would be an interesting path..Good thing it is not August or September.
Quoting 232. scott39:

If 93L takes the low ride across the tip of the Yucatan and into the NW Caribbean....I think we are looking at a healthy Tropical storm.


Conditions don't look very good right now, but it will be slow to develop. If it does go into the Caribbean, yes, it could have much more time to develop.
Quoting Tazmanian:



where are you getting 10 from ??? TD 2 was not a name storm so that olny give us 9 name storms for te season


I think at the very least we would get 3 more storm
Maybe 92L and 93L and one more
And at most we could get 5/6more
But that is it and this might go into Nov/Dec timeframe for the end
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 20 OCTOBER 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z OCTOBER 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-142

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 21/1730Z A. 22/1130Z, 1730Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1445Z C. 22/0830Z
D. 19.7N 94.0W D. 19.9N 92.0W
E. 21/1700Z TO 21/2130Z E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Storms are blowing up nice around 93L center of circulation.
Quoting 192. GeoffreyWPB:





Did you say "South Florida"???????


Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 20 OCTOBER 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z OCTOBER 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-142

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 21/1730Z A. 22/1130Z, 1730Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1445Z C. 22/0830Z
D. 19.7N 94.0W D. 19.9N 92.0W
E. 21/1700Z TO 21/2130Z E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Thought so, they will leave at 9:45am my time tomorrow.
Quoting scott39:
Storms are blowing up nice around 93L center of circulation.
40/60 or 50/60 next TWO?
Grothar can post the scary looking loops...

Some early models

Quoting 240. Grothar:




Did you say "South Florida"???????





Can we get 93L to curve north earlier than anticipated so central and northern Florida can get in on the action? What needs to change for this to happen?
247. 7544
Quoting 242. HurricaneAndre:

40/60 or 50/60 next TWO?


anyone know what do the ships model take 93l up too does it make it a tropical storm thanks
Quoting 7544:


anyone know what do the ships model take 93l up too does it make it a tropical storm thanks
Yes it does.
Quoting 231. Tazmanian:




where are you getting 10 from ??? TD 2 was not a name storm so that olny give us 9 name storms for te season
Good morning Taz!!! Thanks for setting us straight. That cat was trying to jive us.
Quoting Hazardousweather:
Can we get 93L to curve north earlier than anticipated so central and northern Florida can get in on the action? What needs to change for this to happen?


Simply... 93L would have to strengthen quite a bit before it gets to the SE GOM and another possible scenario would be one in which a cut off low develops across the N GOM and retrogrades far enough W to allow 93L to be drawn further N.
ex-Gonzalo to drop by tomorrow over the North Sea, pulling in a long northwesterly gale to storm force and a surge of (at least) +1.5m on Dutch coasts. Not a worry for us but gusts of >60 kts will be as trees are still fairly in leaf.
Quoting 251. WxLogic:



Simply... 93L would have to strengthen quite a bit before it gets to the SE GOM and another possible scenario would be one in which a cut off low develops across the N GOM and retrogrades far enough W to allow 93L to be drawn further N.

Thanks for your response, WxLogic. It appears there are a couple different plausible scenarios that include chances for significant weather in my area. I hope the first you mentioned plays out.
Quoting 252. cRRKampen:

ex-Gonzalo to drop by tomorrow over the North Sea, pulling in a long northwesterly gale to storm force and a surge of (at least) +1.5m on Dutch coasts. Not a worry for us but gusts of >60 kts will be as trees are still fairly in leaf.



Winds will hit in the worst angle. Really good to know that the Netherlands are pretty much fortified against surge.

Invest 92L

Invest 92L
Last Updated Oct 20, 2014 12 GMT
Location 33.6 22.7W Movement W
Wind 50 MPH



wow winds up to 50 mph!!
Lone thunderstorm over Eastern Oklahoma..

Quoting Tazmanian:
and there a ch of 92 and 93L not be comeing name storms at all wish will still put us at 7 or 8 name storms for the season so will this have too see


8 or 9, actually. Gonzalo was the seventh.
Quoting 255. barbamz:




Winds will hit in the worst angle. Really good to know that the Netherlands are pretty much fortified against surge.



Yes, track of system and shape of wind field are a classic.
Quoting 208. washingtonian115:

HAARP!.lol.Well it looks like the work of Captain Trough Save the U.S has done it's job all season long.
It was not so much the work of Captain Trough that saved the U.S. from getting hit this season as it was lots of dry stable air and dust off the coast of Africa plus very strong wind shear in the Caribbean. And the wind shear is still very high in the Caribbean which should keep 93L from becoming anything more then a disorganized mess of rain.
I don't know where 93L will go or what it will do.
After reviewing the sat pics...you get a better sense of broad circulation on wider view of the Atlantic basin. It's very hard to see that in the close up of 93L.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I wonder if people realize most of the time when "Captain Trough" saves the United States he's usually screwing over pretty much every one else from Barbados to Canada. Not a very good Captain, should probably be demoted to Sergeant or something.
267. VR46L
......
Does anyone know how to continue tracking the remains of Gonzalo as it makes its way back across the Atlantic? This fascinates me.