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Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries Heat Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
At 162 hours we have the main system over Hispañola, and a moderate/strong tropical storm emerging off of Africa, lol.

Best laugh of the day, so far.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Perhaps now some of the people from last night will believe me when I said it was losing convection.

Circulation looks better though, expect it to fire up through today.



ok you where n ow give it a rest plzs


216hrs 06 GFS
I am off to work. Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 8-17-11 6:00AM CDT:

93L: Thunderstorms are being enhanced by an ULL to it's west. No development is expected as it moves more to the WSW/SW and into Central America late tomorrow.

Elsewhere no development is expect over the next 7-14 days due to unfavorable upper level conditions throughout the entire tropical Atlantic, Carribean and GOM. Conditions are not expected to substantially change over the next 14 days.
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, Dry air for now seems to be the lion tamer. Im going to take a "wait and see" attitude with these AOI coming off Africa. The current theme with these models are to develope these invests into hurricanes, once past 60W-65W. This is not happening. Im not saying it wont, but for me jumping on board with models right out of the gate seems unrealistic.


Agreed. I think the models ramp this wave up way too fast and allows the trough to have too much influence on it. First off, the GFS is usually trough biased, so I'm thinking that a weaker system will of course be less influenced by whatever shape or form the trough is in. Secondly, if this wave does have a chance to develop near the islands, there will most likely be some sort of land interaction. We remember what happened with Emily and the last few runs of the GFS take this system across Hispaniola with very little if any weakening shown. Overall, whenever we finally get an invest on this, I could see a much more southern track to this. We shall see...
Quoting WxLogic:
Here's the 00Z ECMWF Ensemble showing E GOM and E Coast possibilities with operational output being in the middle (which is what we're seeing):




I'm not buying that.
Quoting bigeasystormcaster:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 8-17-11 6:00AM CDT:

93L: Thunderstorms are being enhanced by an ULL to it's west. No development is expected as it moves more to the WSW/SW and into Central America late tomorrow.

Elsewhere no development is expect over the next 7-14 days due to unfavorable upper level conditions throughout the entire tropical Atlantic, Carribean and GOM. Conditions are not expected to substantially change over the next 14 days.



Quoting robert88:
The models do seem to show some consistency with P17L being near the SE coast of FL. Where it goes from there will depend on where the trough is located etc. Going by the models looks like the alleyway could be anywhere from the E GOM to the EC.

Hi. I would like to know what P17L is. Is it a tropical wave? And can I have a link to where this is mentioned?
Tropical Disturbance In The Eastern Atlantic:
I am closely watching a tropical disturbance that is located in the eastern Atlantic near 30 West Longitude. Currently, water vapor imagery showed that dry air is being pulled into this disturbance and this should put a hold on any development for the time being. This is not good news as this means this disturbance will be able to track further to the west and develop much further west and be a potential threat to the Caribbean and the US coast.

The global model guidance as a whole continues to insist that this tropical disturbance will eventually develop into a tropical cyclone early next week. Please note that all of the models wait to develop it until it is west of 55 or 60 West Longitude.

The latest GFS model forecasts that this system will start developing on Saturday when it is just east of Barbados. The GFS model then forecasts this system to track across the eastern Caribbean to the south of Puerto Rico and strengthen this weekend into early next week before tracking across the northern Caribbean and across central Cuba next Thursday. The GFS model ultimately forecasts this system to track into the eastern Gulf of Mexico next Friday and Saturday and makes landfall as a hurricane on the Florida Panhandle next Saturday night.

The Canadian model forecasts this to be located just offshore of the east coast of Florida by next Friday as a hurricane.

The European model forecasts that this disturbance will wait to develop until Monday when it is approaching the Turks and Caicos islands. The European model ultimately forecasts this to be a strengthening tropical cyclone over the northern Bahamas next Friday.

Ok, let’s take a step back and look at this disturbance realistically. It is notable that we continue to have agreement and consistency among the models that a significant tropical cyclone will develop west of 60 West Longitude next week. As of this morning, this disturbance is battling dry air and water vapor imagery indicates that we should continue to see it battle dry air right up to at least 50 West Longitude. Also, these same models were forecasting late last week that Invest 93L was going to be a significant tropical cyclone and well we don’t have that. I think it is reasonable to say that we should just keep an eye on this disturbance and see how much the dry air takes a toll on this disturbance and not get worried over the big hurricanes that the model guidance have been forecasting for next week. I think that by Friday when this disturbance is west of 50 and 55 West Longitude, we should start seeing whether we may have a real problem on our hands or if the model guidance forecasts were wrong.

So, I think that this disturbance will continue tracking westward for the next several days and track across Barbados and the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on Saturday into early Sunday. I think the European model may be way too far north in its forecast and that this disturbance is headed for the Caribbean. I also think that the GFS model is being too aggressive in its intensity forecast this weekend and that development will be slower to occur as this disturbance works out the dry air as it reaches the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean. If we are to have development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm, it will probably wait until Sunday or Monday when it is in the eastern part of the Caribbean.

So, for now, this is a disturbance that I will be monitoring closely over the next several days needs to be watched very closely. Finally, I want to mention that the overall pattern during the 8 to 10 day timeframe continues to point to that anything that does track into the Caribbean would be potentially steered northward towards the Florida Peninsula. So, vigilance is the word of the day here.

Quoting reedzone:
Persistence is the key and the GFS continues to be persistent on a storm hitting Florida.. A little over 200 hours and a little under 300 hours.

06Z GFS (still running) 240 hours.



This is what it's developing...



The wave on the right side of the map is the critter. We may see this be tagged 97L very shortly.



If the GFS is showing storms hitting Florida over 200 hours away, chances are, its more likely that we will not be hit.
3013. msphar
7 to 14 days of peace that is wonderful news.
3014. pottery
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's pretty much what the models foresee though...no development until around 60˚W.

Good Moaning!
No development of ANYTHING is permitted around 60W this week or weekend.
Celebrating something special on Saturday, and clouds are NOT invited.
Please comply!
Quoting Jedkins01:



I'm not buying that.
s. fl. gets hit alot 1920 30s 40s they got lucky with ike. dont see why it could not happen again
3016. SLU
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY N OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W AT 00Z AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW N
ATLC. THE 0134 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG NE WINDS N OF 15N TO
HISPANIOLA AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
SLOWER TRACK TO THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND IT HAS INCREASED POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
THINKING LEANS TOWARD THE 12Z/16 ECMWF WHICH WAS STRONGER WITH
THE SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z GFS...SHOWING A CLOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU EVENING. FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON THE 00Z
ECMWF COMING IN NOW. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SUN. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION
NEAR THIS WAVE...WHICH WAS NEAR 30W AT 00Z...WILL WILL STICK
WITH THE A WEAKER FORECAST THAN THE 00Z GFS WHICH DEVELOPS A
1005 MB TROPICAL STORM OUT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF
BY SUN NIGHT. IT IS A LITTLE WORRISOME THAT THE 00Z UKMET IS
NEARLY AS STRONG AT THAT TIME AND CLOSES THE LOW OFF FASTER THAN
THE GFS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
FORECAST.


TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
BUOY 41043 IN THE NW PORTION OF THE ZONE REPORTED 19 KT E WINDS
AND 8 FT SEAS AT 03Z WITH BUOY 41044 NEAR 22N59W SHOWING 17 KT
AND 8 FT SEAS AND SHIP A8IN9 ALSO REPORTING 8 FT SEAS AND 15 KT
WINDS AT THE SAME TIME. THESE FRESH E WINDS BEHIND THE TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W AT 00Z SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY AS
THE WAVE MOVES E. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WAS ALONG 30W AT 00Z. THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD WAITING TO
MAKE THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM UNTIL IT IS ALREADY OUT OF THE
TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. THE GRADUAL BACKING OFF ON THIS FORECAST
BY THE GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST HISTORY FOR THE TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 70W WHICH HAS YET TO DEVELOP.
THIS WAVE NEAR
30W HAS SIMILAR CHARACTERISTICS TO THE PREVIOUS WAVE WHEN IT WAS
NEAR 30W - LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MORE OPEN WAVE
SOLUTION SEEN IN THE ECMWF.

3017. WxLogic
Over the past 6HR to 9HR, P17L has been consolidating its 850MB VORT:





Which correlates to an increased organization at low level:



But I would believe NHC would mark it as an INVEST once it passes 50W where the environment should start getting conductive for further development.
Quoting WxLogic:


I agree with you... I've personally haven't seen GFS being so consistent (track wise) as no model is good intensity wise in 4 to a little over 4 runs straight already.

Will be interesting if 12Z continues.


It will change, I don't even know why the GFS taking a hurricane into Florida at over 200 hours is even worth glancing at.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Hi. I would like to know what P17L is. Is it a tropical wave? And can I have a link to where this is mentioned?


http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2011.html
Quoting msphar:
7 to 14 days of peace that is wonderful news.
that is not from the NHC. That is that blogger's ridiculous BS...regardless of whether it ever develops or not, 93L is not moving WSW or SW. He/She is a troll looking for their breakfast...
this season could have more home grown storms forming past 50 - 60 west which could mean more threats to the US coast IMO.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Hi. I would like to know what P17L is. Is it a tropical wave? And can I have a link to where this is mentioned?


P17L is a pouch or "marsupial", see explanation
3024. msphar
Crowne Weather is not exactly a blogger. A lot of people rely on them to provide good forecasts.
Quoting msphar:
Crowne Weather is not exactly a blogger. A lot of people rely on them to provide good forecasts.
IF you are responding to me, show me where what bigeasy posted is from Crowne Weather...
3026. ncstorm
Quoting msphar:
Crowne Weather is not exactly a blogger. A lot of people rely on them to provide good forecasts.


them? its only one guy..
Quoting msphar:
Crowne Weather is not exactly a blogger. A lot of people rely on them to provide good forecasts.


That is most definitely not from Crown Weather.

Link

Quoting WxLogic:
Over the past 6HR to 9HR, P17L has been consolidating its 850MB VORT:





Which correlates to an increased organization at low level:



But I would believe NHC would mark it as an INVEST once it passes 50W where the environment should start getting conductive for further development.


It's not likely to develop due to unfavorable upper level conditions ahead of it and should it develop some it will recurve out into the North Atlantic. NO threat to the US. See my post from earlier.
Quoting mcluvincane:





I mentioned the apparent dev of the ULL yesterday and again late last night and as a matter of fact 30 minutes ago again. I saw it just begin. to spin up yesterday. I was shut down right away by some of the regulars when I posted my observation...including last night and some ignored the post and continued to discuss how good 93L looked. I mean these guys were some of the , what I perceive to be "top dogs" on here (not levi by the way!!). Frankly I am sometimes baffled that so many in here seem to know a lot, post a lot and and to be honest, I hate to say it, dont apparently have the ability to simply "observe" something for what it is.
Indeed a bit worrisome as the 00z UKMET is also on board here with development close to 50-55west.
Quoting WxLogic:


I agree with you... I've personally haven't seen GFS being so consistent (track wise) as no model is good intensity wise in 4 to a little over 4 runs straight already.

Will be interesting if 12Z continues.


Morning all..

In light of what you've said about the unreliability of the intensity forecast...

The longer this wave stays weak, could it start to trend the models back south more? Or are models still suggesting organization past 50-55W?

I guess if it gets past that, track could start to change?
3032. msphar
I don't care about 93L, it is history to me. My eyes are looking further East. 7 - 14 days of peace gets me through an anniversary that I'd like not disrupted by weather.

Quoting msphar:
Crowne Weather is not exactly a blogger. A lot of people rely on them to provide good forecasts.


I realise that. But their TWD mentions the ULL to the SW of 93L which has been developing the last 24 hours or so and may very well sheer 93L and clearly limit its development.
Quoting islander101010:
s. fl. gets hit alot 1920 30s 40s they got lucky with ike. dont see why it could not happen again
South Florida has been hit a lot in the past, but dominating steering currents still support tropical cyclones to not hit Florida. Until that changes while a hurricane is fast approaching, there likely won't be much of a FL hurricane threat.

Some laugh at me for saying that. But I'm just sticking to my guns because of what I know. So far, those who mock me have been wrong and my forecast turned right.

Now, the models have shown some consistency in wanting to break down the pattern which has kept tropical cyclones away from Florida. The thing is, they've been doing this for weeks in the long term, but then the models back off when you actual get within model accuracy range. What we will have to watch for, is if models agree more and more in the near term on a steering shift. Otherwise you're just gonna be worrying about the GFS spinning up hurricanes and slamming them into Florida at 200 hours. Personally I'd save your worries for when they are actually needed.


Could later in the season become scary? Of course! We all know September almost always becomes way more active. Additionally the steering could change by then allowing hurricanes to frequently threaten the Southeast. But like I said, these are all big if's, no need to panic, its a waste.
3035. pottery
Quoting msphar:
I don't care about 93L, it is history to me. My eyes are looking further East. 7 - 14 days of peace gets me through an anniversary that I'd like not disrupted by weather.


Join the Club!
I'm with you on that....
Is anybody going to post this?

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171136
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THERE ARE STILL NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION
AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN OVER THIS REGION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
WAVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Quoting hunkerdown:
IF you are responding to me, show me where what bigeasy posted is from Crowne Weather...
The comment by bigeasy is NOT from Crown Weather. But the comment from
Mcluvincane is from Crown Weather.
Quoting whepton3:


Morning all..

In light of what you've said about the unreliability of the intensity forecast...

The longer this wave stays weak, could it start to trend the models back south more? Or are models still suggesting organization past 50-55W?

I guess if it gets past that, track could start to change?


Almost all globals have a strengthing cyclone once past 50-55west. GFS,UKMET,CMC and the european. As tpc on the caribbean dicussion mentioned it is indeed interesting that the UKMET also appears on board with this.
3040. ncstorm
climatolgically speaking..other products are down..

3041. PTXer
Quoting pottery:

Good Moaning!
No development of ANYTHING is permitted around 60W this week or weekend.
Celebrating something special on Saturday, and clouds are NOT invited.
Please comply!


Hope you get a good weekend for your celebration Pottery. Congrats on whatever you are celebrating! (even if it's just making it to another weekend)
3042. WxLogic
Quoting whepton3:


Morning all..

In light of what you've said about the unreliability of the intensity forecast...

The longer this wave stays weak, could it start to trend the models back south more? Or are models still suggesting organization past 50-55W?

I guess if it gets past that, track could start to change?


Sure... a weaker system would tend to stay further S. Given that we're still 10+ days from such a depiction in the models, then expect them to change.

In regards organization... so far this season tropical disturbances have been able to gain some sort of better organization once they past 50W to 55W. The degree of organization with P17L after passing those longitudes would dictate the possibility of a more poleward track than that of a westerly track.
Quoting Jedkins01:
South Florida has been hit a lot in the past, but dominating steering currents still support tropical cyclones to not hit Florida. Until that changes while a hurricane is fast approaching, there likely won't be much of a FL hurricane threat.


Actually if this wave does develope it appears at this time that a threat to the SE is quite possible based on the pattern projected.
3044. msphar
My 26th Pottery this go around, and yours ?
Thanks guys... always a help... can't look at models very well on the phone.

I suppose here in S. FL we're really in a wait and see 'til something possibly spins up Sunday-Monday.
Quoting WxLogic:


Sure... a weaker system would tend to stay further S. Given that we're still 10+ days from such a depiction in the models, then expect them to change.

In regards organization... so far this season tropical disturbances have been able to gain some sort of better organization once they past 50W to 55W. The degree of organization with P17L after passing those longitudes would dictate the possibility of a more poleward track than that of a westerly track.


GFS has the wave approaching Florida in around 8 days. Not 10+ days anymore. That's close enough in my mind to be watching the model runs closely. Sure, they'll all change, but no particular run can be completely discounted.
3048. ncstorm
NHC/TAFB Wave Height forecast for AOI African wave

3049. 900MB
Kind of get the feeling that something could spin up out of nowhere today. Guess it is that time of year!

The wave out at 35W (17L?) looks like it has some potential, sure, but how about long shots? Here they are:

1- Tiny spin Yucatan Channel,
2- Dry spinner around 55W/20N
3- Anything from that front off the East Coast.

If it is either of the first 2, you heard it here first. Hope everyone has a great day, looks like a top 10 in NYC!

first vis. of 93 a td by tomorrow
Quoting hurricane23:


Actually if this wave does develope it appears at this time that a threat to the SE is quite possible based on the pattern projected.


We shall se if the trend continues, its fun to watch, I just don't want to see anyone panicking over it yet, that's all.
3052. WxLogic
Quoting hurricane23:
Indeed a bit worrisome as the 00z UKMET is also on board here with development close to 50-55west.


Good post by SLU pointing out their thinking on UKMET behaving in such a fashion too.
Quoting islander101010:
first vis. of 93 a td tomorrow


LOL
Stopping in briefly before school...Should see 93L obtain more convection through this afternoon, and it will probably gets its percentages upped later on either at the 2PM or 8PM TWO.



Tropical Storm Fernanda will probably break the hurricane streak, dealing with a lot of dry air.



Tropical Storm Greg should become a hurricane...But if Fernanda doesn't, the streak is broken. Oh well, sorry Eastern Pacific.

So many ppl on here are desperate for a land-falling US Hurricane, kinda pathetic. (unless you live in Texas, cause I'm rooting for ya)
3057. hydrus
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Key West strike in 228 hours, should recurve soon with the weakness towards the north:

GFS track looks similar to 1960 Donna...
93l weekendon vorticity bbl
3059. WxLogic
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


GFS has the wave approaching Florida in around 8 days. Not 10+ days anymore. That's close enough in my mind to be watching the model runs closely. Sure, they'll all change, but no particular run can be completely discounted.


Yeah... I guess everybody has their own view on days to the actual event, looks like I'm not that quick as you're on the progress on the system. :)

I agree in regards "no particular runs can be completely discounted." since the offer possibilities as we closer to the event (if it does work out the way is being depicted).
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Stopping in briefly before school...Should see 93L obtain more convection through this afternoon, and it will probably gets its percentages upped later on either at the 2PM or 8PM TWO.



Tropical Storm Fernanda will probably break the hurricane streak, dealing with a lot of dry air.



Tropical Storm Greg should become a hurricane...But if Fernanda doesn't, the streak is broken. Oh well, sorry Eastern Pacific.



93L may begin to experience some southerly sheer amongst other problems by this afternoon...IMO. Cant see to much of un upgrading percentage wise
Quoting ncstorm:


them? its only one guy..
crown? problem is there are alot of other characters that have forecasting businesses for example junkie got to follow the rules. its spam
Good Morning. NHC bumped 93: up to 30% but still booking pretty fast at 15-20 MPH......Starting to run out of room before nearing the Yucatan in a few days
Quoting WxLogic:


Yeah... I guess everybody has their own view on days to the actual event, looks like I'm not that quick as you're on the progress on the system. :)

I agree in regards "no particular runs can be completely discounted." since the offer possibilities as we closer to the event (if it does work out the way is being depicted).

It's not really my view lol, just the time frame the models seem to be suggesting.
Good morning

The two features we have been following remain status quo this morning. 93L failed to take advantage of Dmax to build any significant convection and continues to trundle off to the West in the general direction of the Nicaraguan / Honduras border area.

It still has a chance to become a TD once it reaches 75W and beyond.

The wave in the Atlantic is currently passing through an area of 20 knot shear that stretches to about 40 W. This shear has been on the increase and I am therefore not expecting any development from this wave until it is closer to 50/55 W.
I think the GFS had a storm hitting last year hitting Florida( not Bonnie) and it did not happen. Crown weather has the right idea let us see what it looks like by 50-55 W, no need to panic now that is for sure. It is serious enough with the model runs to give it attention but that's it. If I was in the Carribbean I'd take it with more concern since it could effect the area in 5 days. After that it is speculation where it might go.
3066. ncstorm
HPC EXTENDED DISCUSSION

RELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
459 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 21 2011 - 12Z WED AUG 24 2011

AT LEAST IN THE LARGE SCALE... MOST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GOOD
CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF
CONFIGURATION WILL AMPLIFY FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ERN TROF ENCOURAGING A LEADING COLD FRONT TO REACH THE EAST
COAST IN THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WHEN
THERE IS CONSENSUS IN THE MEANS... IT WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
WORK OUT THE DETAILS FOR INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS AND THEIR
CORRESPONDING SFC REFLECTION. THE 00Z GFS COMPARES A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLY TO OTHER 00Z OR EARLIER 12Z GUIDANCE IN DEPICTING A
SHARPER THAN CONSENSUS SHRTWV FEEDING INTO THE DEEPENING ERN TROF
SUN INTO TUE... LEADING TO STRONGER ERN CANADA SFC DEVELOPMENT
THAN SEEN IN RECENT ECMWF RUNS OR THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. HOWEVER THE
CANADIAN/UKMET ALSO DEVELOP A STRONG SYSTEM OVER ERN CANADA THOUGH
A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE GFS. ULTIMATELY A SMALL WEIGHTING OF
THE GFS COULD STILL BE FEASIBLE SINCE ITS EVOLUTION STILL FITS
WITHIN THE MEAN PATTERN.
3067. NASA101
...just to remind folks here that GFS was predicting a huge hurricane with 93L during the early runs...
And looks what's become of it... it stayed weak and tracked West..
This year I believe that the models are NOT modeling the dry-air/dust well enough into their cyclogenesis..worst of all in this category is HWRF which historically has been notorious for spinning up massive hurricanes.

My hunch (lol) for this potential 97L is that it will probably remain weak until it reaches 65W or thereabouts and if it does develop after that then I just don't see it curving out - will definitely a player for CONUS
To honkerdown you might want to look at 0600 GFS run on 93l.The person you called a troll for sying it was going to move wsw was spot on look at the model.As far as the Kangeroo or Kiola?If the gfs verifies it would be bad for hispianola but certainly would not stay that strong after traversing the mtns of hispanola.Hey remember hurricane Debbie of 2000?Gloom and doom for south fla by the media?Well cantorie was standing at key west, and all he got was a sunburn lol.Looks like another carribean under achiever.
To honkerdown you might want to look at 0600 GFS run on 93l.The person you called a troll for sying it was going to move wsw was spot on look at the model.As far as the Kangeroo or Kiola?If the gfs verifies it would be bad for hispianola but certainly would not stay that strong after traversing the mtns of hispanola.Hey remember hurricane Debbie of 2000?Gloom and doom for south fla by the media?Well cantorie was standing at key west, and all he got was a sunburn lol.Looks like another carribean under achiever.
Here is the am NCEP discussion on the next wave; it has a nice summary of the model guidance issue and mjo:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 704 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

ON THE LONG RANGE...MODELS SHOWING STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WERE QUITE BULLISH WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE LATEST ONE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A WEAKER CIRCULATION. THE UKMET AND GFS HAS GONE THE OPPOSITE WAY...NOW SHOWING A STRONGER WAVE. AS MJO CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE...WE NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THIS REGION.


they stress carribean.
I see everything is going south or out to sea. I know about september from 'THE CHART". Is the season over for the cont. U.S. ?

Coffee
Maybe this will work. "Here little TS", "Come on Boy" Or Girl:) "Good Little TS, Come BE a nice little Drought Breaker for texas," ( Add kiss, Kiss SOunds) "Thats a good little TS" We dont care about your name or number. "Come on little fella" "We have some nice warm water for you. Be A good little TS"
WEll nothing else has worked:)
1200 CIMMS UPDATE..

Central Atl wave will be something to watch when it reaches 50-55W.
3076. hydrus
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

The two features we have been following remain status quo this morning. 93L failed to take advantage of Dmax to build any significant convection and continues to trundle off to the West in the general direction of the Nicaraguan / Honduras border area.

It still has a chance to become a TD once it reaches 75W and beyond.

The wave in the Atlantic is currently passing through an area of 20 knot shear that stretches to about 40 W. This shear has been on the increase and I am therefore not expecting any development from this wave until it is closer to 50/55 W.
Good morning K-Man...Check out the GFS if you have time, and watch the wave that is still over Africa. Some serious rotation with this one..Link
I don't see today bringing much of anything development wise for either of the two systems we are looking at.

93L just can't get going due to speed primarily, and the ATL wave is battling some dry air for now.

Of the two, I would expect 93L to spin up sooner, if at all.
3078. Dakster
Quoting Autistic2:
I see everything is going south or out to sea. I know about september from 'THE CHART". Is the season over for the cont. U.S. ?

Coffee


It would be nice if I could say yes, no CONUS landfalls for 2011.... BUT, I know better.

Things can change and a storm can always sneak through regardless. There is still alot of the "season" left to deal with.
3079. hydrus
Quoting totalamature:
Maybe this will work. "Here little TS", "Come on Boy" Or Girl:) "Good Little TS, Come BE a nice little Drought Breaker for texas," ( Add kiss, Kiss SOunds) "Thats a good little TS" We dont care about your name or number. "Come on little fella" "We have some nice warm water for you. Be A good little TS"
WEll nothing else has worked:)
If its bad, maybe he or she will sit, roll over and play dead.....
Quoting USAFwxguy:
I don't see today bringing much of anything development wise for either of the two systems we are looking at.

93L just can't get going due to speed primarily, and the ATL wave is battling some dry air for now.

Of the two, I would expect 93L to spin up sooner, if at all.


What do you think of the ULL about to impinge possibly on 93L
yep, and I think the Florida peninsula has to be extra careful for this one
Just basically a watch and wait on the waves for now and the model guidance. Plenty of time to keep an eye on those features. Be back after Dr. M's post.
Pressure down another notch. As I said yesterday, TD by tomorrow, if not sooner:

AL, 93, 2011081712, , BEST, 0, 149N, 733W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting Autistic2:
I see everything is going south or out to sea. I know about september from 'THE CHART". Is the season over for the cont. U.S. ?

Coffee

I personally don't see anything affecting America for a couple more weeks. Through the middle of September, the pattern might change. But I think it's a bit too far out to speculate upon that.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Pressure down another notch. As I said yesterday, TD by tomorrow, if not sooner:

AL, 93, 2011081712, , BEST, 0, 149N, 733W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


Perhaps late today. Really could use a slow down, that would help an awful lot.
Quoting barotropic:


What do you think of the ULL about to impinge possibly on 93L
SPECIAL FEATURES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD TO 12N. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 14N TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN
69W AND 75W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
NO SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXISTS. SURFACE BAROMETRIC PRESSURES ARE
NOT FALLING IN THIS REGION. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...


NHC mentions no ULL to affect the system.
3087. Matt74
Doesn't look like Dmax helped out 93l.
3088. FLdewey
Until the actual center forms the models are.... ahhh whatever.

Go nuts guys.

Pass me some dirty milk jugs.
Quoting Autistic2:
I see everything is going south or out to sea. I know about september from 'THE CHART". Is the season over for the cont. U.S. ?

Coffee

[snark mode]

Yes, the season is over for the CONUS. Here on August 17th, it's safe to say that people can put away the plywood, cancel their Home Depot credit cards, eat those canned goods before they go bad, drain their water containers and gas cans, and get ready for a long winter. Since there have been no hurricanes yet, it's obvious to anyone there'll not be any storms for the remainder of the season. Forget about the fact that we've seen seven named storms already, that SSTs across much of the MDR are at record or near-record highs, that we're just now getting to the main part of the season when wind and pressure and water vapor are perfectly primed for development, and that expert tropical forecasters are telling us to look out for a very hectic six weeks coming up. Forget all that; there have been no hurricanes yet this year, so the season is very clearly finished.

[/snark mode]

Seriously? It's August 17th. August 17th. ;-)
Quoting USAFwxguy:


Perhaps late today. Really could use a slow down, that would help an awful lot.

That's what you touched upon yesterday, and it makes sense. You have to have ample time to get that spin going, which will increase the vorticity.
Quoting FLdewey:
Until the actual center forms the models are.... ahhh whatever.

Go nuts guys.

Pass me some dirty milk jugs.
Kind of off topic but on topic to the discussion yesterday. People down here have used milk bottles for as long as I can remember to store water without any problems. If they are washed out properly with bleach I see no problems.
Quoting barotropic:


What do you think of the ULL about to impinge possibly on 93L


One moving west, nearing the Yucutan as I see it. It is moving away and mid and high lvl winds don't look to be any problem for 93L.
3093. scott39
When is the MJO forecasted to be at is strongest?
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning K-Man...Check out the GFS if you have time, and watch the wave that is still over Africa. Some serious rotation with this one..Link


The GFS brings that wave off the coast as a strong low but loses it around 45 W. One thing seems certain though and that is we will be seeing a parade of potential problems in the weeks ahead.

The MJO will soon allow for rising air and this will increase the vertical instability in both the Caribbean and the Atlantic where it presently is running below normal. It is therefore not surprising that the systems so far have struggled to get going.
3095. FLdewey
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Kind of off topic but on topic to the discussion yesterday. People down here have used milk bottles for as long as I can remember to store water without any problems. If they are washed out properly with bleach I see no problems.


Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh shhhhhhhh... don't start it up again... twas just a passing joke. ;-)
Quoting kmanislander:


The GFS brings that wave off the coast as a strong low but loses it around 45 W. One thing seems certain though and that is we will be seeing a parade of potential problems in the weeks ahead.

The MJO will soon allow for rising air and this will increase the vertical instability in both the Caribbean and the Atlantic where it presently is running below normal. It is therefore not surprising that the systems so far have struggled to get going.

I agree. MJO on the upswing, and CV season chugging into full gear.
Quoting USAFwxguy:


One moving west, nearing the Yucutan as I see it. It is moving away and mid and high lvl winds don't look to be any problem for 93L.


I agree that. In fact, if 93L had developed, that retrograding ULL would have aided development by providing an outflow channel off to the NW. It is too far away from 93L to have any impact on it.
In my area, and I know this sounds crazy, you can buy water in containers that look very similar to MILK JUGS. Yep, comes that way right from the water farm. And, get this, it is cheaper.
3100. scott39
Quoting FLdewey:


Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh shhhhhhhh... don't start it up again... twas just a passing joke. ;-)
You opened the can first. Next time put cheetos in your hands when you think of a MJ. LOL
3101. FLdewey
audreyritalillyLa44 I liked the hotwheels99 handle better.

Be more creative on the next handle to make.

TIA
Quoting USAFwxguy:
In my area, and I know this sounds crazy, you can buy water in containers that look very similar to MILK JUGS. Yep, comes that way right from the water farm. And, get this, it is cheaper.
you from another planet ??
3103. FLdewey
Quoting scott39:
You opened the can first. Next time put cheetos in your hands when you think of a MJ. LOL


<--- walks to vending machine
Quoting audreyritalillyLa44:
I guess you didnt understand either FREAK OF THE TROPICS OR FREAK OF NATURE OR TROPIC FREAK . ITS A VISION PROBLEM. YOU DO KNOW IM NOT SITTING AT MY HOUSE IN FRONT OF THE COMPUTER SCREAMING. I WOULD LIKE TO DO IT IN PERSON TO A FEW FOLKS THOUGH. REALLY WE ALL NO THE ASSUMPTION OF CAPS LIKE SCREAMING. THAT WAS 20 YEARS AGO. ONCE AGAIN. I CANT SEE I LEAVE IT ON SO I CAN SEE WHAT I TYPED..NOW PLEASE LEAVE ME ALONE AND LET ME ENJOY WHAT THE INTELLIGENT PEOPLE ARE SAYING ABOUT TROPICS THANKS

I agree. You type as you please, lower or upper case. Ignore the knuckleheads who accuse you of hollering or whatever. They as just trying to start something.
3105. scott39
Quoting Neapolitan:

[snark mode]

Yes, the season is over for the CONUS. Here on August 17th, it's safe to say that people can put away the plywood, cancel their Home Depot credit cards, eat those canned goods before they go bad, drain their water containers and gas cans, and get ready for a long winter. Since there have been no hurricanes yet, it's obvious to anyone there'll not be any storms for the remainder of the season. Forget about the fact that we've seen seven named storms already, that SSTs across much of the MDR are at record or near-record highs, that we're just now getting to the main part of the season when wind and pressure and water vapor are perfectly primed for development, and that expert tropical forecasters are telling us to look out for a very hectic six weeks coming up. Forget all that; there have been no hurricanes yet this year, so the season is very clearly finished.

[/snark mode]

Seriously? It's August 17th. August 17th. ;-)
Quoting FLdewey:


Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh shhhhhhhh... don't start it up again... twas just a passing joke. ;-)


Way to go dewey....POOF!
or...in the lower right hand corner of Dr. Masters blog entry...one can simply increase the size of the font presentation by simply clicking on on of the capital "A's"
3108. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

The two features we have been following remain status quo this morning. 93L failed to take advantage of Dmax to build any significant convection and continues to trundle off to the West in the general direction of the Nicaraguan / Honduras border area.

It still has a chance to become a TD once it reaches 75W and beyond.

The wave in the Atlantic is currently passing through an area of 20 knot shear that stretches to about 40 W. This shear has been on the increase and I am therefore not expecting any development from this wave until it is closer to 50/55 W.
Is the MJO going to aid in the AOI off of Africa, at the time when the models are developing it?
Quoting kmanislander:


I agree that. In fact, if 93L had developed, that retrograding ULL would have aided development by providing an outflow channel off to the NW. It is too far away from 93L to have any impact on it.


Please note for the record the timing of these posts.

We're growing apart, KMan. So sad.
17/0545 UTC 14.8N 70.9W T1.0/1.0 93L
16/2345 UTC 15.1N 69.5W T1.0/1.0 93L



Latest
17/1145 UTC 15.0N 72.7W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic
3111. Matt74
Quoting FLdewey:
audreyritalillyLa44 I liked the hotwheels99 handle better.

Be more creative on the next handle to make.

TIA
Haven't noticed but i'm guessing he/she is a troll?
Sorry AUDREYRITALILY, but I don't buy your argument. If you can read what other people wrote in lower case, you can read what you wrote.
93L is starting to produce deep convection on its South side for the first time. Perhaps this marks a turning point for development. It is closing in on 73W which is very near to where weak Caribbean systems ramp up if they are going to start developing at all.

3114. ackee
I fully agree with DR.ROB viewn on crown weather about the wave in the EASTEn Atlantic think we should just wait see what will happen not get to EXCITED this may be very similar to 93L interms of track and intensity guess we see
Beginning to get some cold cloud tops with 93L

Good morning, appears 93L might be starting to slow down a bit now.
Quoting kmanislander:
93L is starting to produce deep convection on its South side for the first time. Perhaps this marks a turning point for development. It is closing in on 73W which is very near to where weak Caribbean systems ramp up if they are going to start developing at all.



HAHA. Doing it again I see.
Quoting kmanislander:


I agree that. In fact, if 93L had developed, that retrograding ULL would have aided development by providing an outflow channel off to the NW. It is too far away from 93L to have any impact on it.


Sorry but I am curious.....I am talking about the one...at 13N 79W. SW of 93L...visible on water vapor loop....counter clockwise spin......just begining to sheer the eastern portion of 93L.......its not anywhere near the yucatan and is moving in tandem but 93 is gaining on it....

If its not ULL what is it spinning CCW....thanks
First earthquake since 7/31 that is higher than a magnitude 6.



Still haven't seen one that anyone would call "significant". Bit of a lull.
Quoting kmanislander:
93L is starting to produce deep convection on its South side for the first time. Perhaps this marks a turning point for development. It is closing in on 73W which is very near to where weak Caribbean systems ramp up if they are going to start developing at all.


Orange is deep convection? Isn't deep convection the cooler cloud tops, more or less -80C? I see an area of expanded convection, not necessarily deep. -80C would be a deep red, and -90 or greater would be the grey shade.

Thoughts?
Quoting USAFwxguy:


Please note for the record the timing of these posts.

We're growing apart, KMan. So sad.


LOL
3122. Matt74
Quoting kmanislander:
93L is starting to produce deep convection on its South side for the first time. Perhaps this marks a turning point for development. It is closing in on 73W which is very near to where weak Caribbean systems ramp up if they are going to start developing at all.

Kman. Where do you put the coc at?
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Orange is deep convection? Isn't deep convection the cooler cloud tops, more or less -80C? -80C would be a deep red, and -90 or greater would be the grey shade.


Read my post carefully and note the use of the word " starting ".
The question is,will recon go this afternoon. I say yes.
Quoting barotropic:


Sorry but I am curious.....I am talking about the one...at 13N 79W. SW of 93L...visible on water vapor loop....counter clockwise spin......just begining to sheer the eastern portion of 93L.......its not anywhere near the yucatan and is moving in tandem but 93 is gaining on it....

If its not ULL what is it spinning CCW....thanks


I don't see that feature there. The upper lvl winds don't reflect a ULL in that area.

I put the center at 15N/73.2W
Quoting hydrus:
If its bad, maybe he or she will sit, roll over and play dead.....

Well if its bad we could always try whacking it with a rolled up newspaper ...... Picture that in a hurricane:) Been in lots of tornados but only one hurricane, Little Floyd in the 80s at disney world.
Quoting kmanislander:


Read my post carefully and note the use of the word " starting ".

I did. I even went back and read again, just for you. Normally though, these cloud tops fire right up from the get-go. With the displacing on the convection in the mid-levels, interaction with the dry air is still very present. Deep convection isn't occurring now, and probably won't occur for some time.
3131. SeaMule
caribbean looking rather dicey. look for HEAVY action for the next 8 weeks.

at least 4 major hurricanes will form...cat 3 or higher

at least 1 cat 4 or 5 will hit the Gulf Coast

at least 1 cat 3 or 4 will hit the East Coast.


Quoting Matt74:
Kman. Where do you put the coc at?


15N and 73 W approximately. There is a buoy, 42058, moored at 15N and 75 W and the center of 93L should pass almost right over it later today. A good buoy to monitor for wind and pressure fall, if any. Right now the last report from it had a pressure of 1010 mbs and 21 kots sustained out of the ENE
3133. scott39
93L is starting to get the "look".


Wake when the pressure hits 29.76....like it was 3 days ago.
Quoting USAFwxguy:


I don't see that feature there. The upper lvl winds don't reflect a ULL in that area.



I agree, its not shown on the chart....but u must see it on the WVL, I mean its there...its clearly spinning. centered at 13N 79W...I am not trying to be smart here...just asking if its not an uLL thats spinning, what is it?
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/93L
MARK
15.25N/73.23W
3137. scott39
K-Man post 3108 TIA
Lots of people seem a little tense this morning.

Nothing eminent. Back to lurk mode.
Quoting kmanislander:


15N and 73 W approximately. There is a buoy, 42058, moored at 15N and 75 W and the center of 93L should pass almost right over it later today. A good buoy to monitor for wind and pressure fall, if any. Right now the last report from it had a pressure of 1010 mbs and 21 kots sustained out of the ENE
Do you have a link to this buoy?
3140. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
8.55N/33.13W
3142. ncstorm
trough off the east coast in 96 hours

Quoting scott39:
93L is starting to get the "look".


Yep..that CA look.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I did. I even went back and read again, just for you. Normally though, these cloud tops fire right up from the get-go. With the displacing in the mid-levels interacting with the dry air still present, deep convection probably won't occur now.


I agree that normally you would expect a big burst but remember that the Caribbean has a lot of stable air now ( my post earlier about vertical instability being low normal refers )and consequently the typical convective cycle is not as robust as one would expect.

Even so, it seems to be continuing to build at this time.

3145. scott39
Quoting hurricane23:


Yep..that CA look.
Yea..that look too.
Quoting barotropic:


I agree, its not shown on the chart....but u must see it on the WVL, I mean its there...its clearly spinning. centered at 13N 79W...I am not trying to be smart here...just asking if its not an uLL thats spinning, what is it?



i pointed this out yesterday a ull was in the western caribbean around 80w.. going to keep 93L from getting its act together...the shear is going to pick up in the western caribbean...
Quoting kmanislander:


I agree that normally you would expect a big burst but remember that the Caribbean has a lot of stable air now ( my post earlier about vertical instability being low normal refers )and consequently the typical convective cycle is not as robust as one would expect.

Even so, it seems to be continuing to build at this time.


You got it. Vertical instability is rather thwarted, as mirrored in the MJO.

Hey, FWIW though, I think we can agree that she is looking a bit more organized this morning, despite not taking advance of the D-Max hours ago.

Thanks Kman.
Quoting belizeit:
Do you have a link to this buoy?


Yes, here
3149. FLdewey
Worst case Ontario...

Confirmed tornado touched down in northwestern Ontario, Canada late Tuesday afternoon Link

Can it fly? Does the tin man have a sheet metal...
HEY TO THE ONE WHO SAID TO BE MORE CREATIVE ON MY HANDLE. AUDREY WAS THE STORM MY FATHER LOST HIS FATHER BROTHE GRANDPARENTS AND THREE AUNTS. HE WAS NINE AND FLOATED ON A ROOF TOP BEFORE BEING RESCUED HIS STORY IS IN A BOOK CALLED HURRICANE AUDREY 1957. HURRICANE LILLY WAS ON A DEAD AIM RIGHT FOR MY HOME IN 2002 I COULD NOT EVAC .MY WIFE WAS VERY WITH CHILD OH.. AND YES AS LILLY APPROCHED OUR COAST OUR CHILD DISCOVERD AMERICA . WE NAMED HIM CAMERON AFTER THE TOWN MY FATHER LOST HIS FAMILY IN HURRICANE AUDREY AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST HURR RITA DEVASTATED OUR HOME IN LA IN 2005 , AND I WAS INJURED CLEANING UP AFTERWARD AND HAD MY NECK BROKEN AND LOST A LOT OF MY VISION....SO HOWS THIS 44 YEAR OLD FOR CREATIVITY... SO IF YOU DONT MIND KEEP YOUR LAME OPINIONS TO YOUR SELF ABOUT PEOPLE PERSONALLY AND TALK ABOUT THE TROPICS....THINGS ARE GOING ON YOU KNOW
In the EPAC, Greg has formed:

EP, 07, 2011081712, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1034W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 40, 1008, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GREG, M,
3152. angiest
Quoting SuperYooper:
First earthquake since 7/31 that is higher than a magnitude 6.



Still haven't seen one that anyone would call "significant". Bit of a lull.


Another aftershock of the major one earlier this year.
Quoting barotropic:


I agree, its not shown on the chart....but u must see it on the WVL, I mean its there...its clearly spinning. centered at 13N 79W...I am not trying to be smart here...just asking if its not an uLL thats spinning, what is it?


Oddly post 3140 shows a shift in nearly all of the dynamic models to the wSW.....which seems to be in response to the spin I keep mentioning I am seeing in the WVL. It seems that 93 L will move on the topside of it and be pulled southward.......is that possibly right?
3154. KY50
The Navy Monterey Marine Office has posted "96L' on their website but no good pictures or location.

Has anyone seen anything yet today that confirms a new invest?
3155. Matt74
Quoting kmanislander:


15N and 73 W approximately. There is a buoy, 42058, moored at 15N and 75 W and the center of 93L should pass almost right over it later today. A good buoy to monitor for wind and pressure fall, if any. Right now the last report from it had a pressure of 1010 mbs and 21 kots sustained out of the ENE
Sounds like a surface circulation might be trying to form. What do you think? Thanks for answering my question.
Quoting scott39:
Is the MJO going to aid in the AOI off of Africa, at the time when the models are developing it?


It should as the MJO is heading into the Caribbean now and propagating to the East.
3157. Patrap
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery



3158. WxLogic
If 93L is able to get those TSTMs to build around the center and keep them there... then it'll be a go and 93L should be able to shield itself from this or at least most of it:

Quoting Matt74:
Sounds like a surface circulation might be trying to form. What do you think? Thanks for answering my question.


It looks like a surface low could be forming based upon the improved satellite presentation but the buoy data does not necessarily indicate that. The winds shown there now are typical of an approaching Easterly wave and the pressure is not particularly low.
There is consistency run after run. This need to be observed and addressed.

Quoting audreyritalillyLa44:
HEY TO THE ONE WHO SAID TO BE MORE CREATIVE ON MY HANDLE. AUDREY WAS THE STORM MY FATHER LOST HIS FATHER BROTHE GRANDPARENTS AND THREE AUNTS. HE WAS NINE AND FLOATED ON A ROOF TOP BEFORE BEING RESCUED HIS STORY IS IN A BOOK CALLED HURRICANE AUDREY 1957. HURRICANE LILLY WAS ON A DEAD AIM RIGHT FOR MY HOME IN 2002 I COULD NOT EVAC .MY WIFE WAS VERY WITH CHILD OH.. AND YES AS LILLY APPROCHED OUR COAST OUR CHILD DISCOVERD AMERICA . WE NAMED HIM CAMERON AFTER THE TOWN MY FATHER LOST HIS FAMILY IN HURRICANE AUDREY AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST HURR RITA DEVASTATED OUR HOME IN LA IN 2005 , AND I WAS INJURED CLEANING UP AFTERWARD AND HAD MY NECK BROKEN AND LOST A LOT OF MY VISION....SO HOWS THIS 44 YEAR OLD FOR CREATIVITY... SO IF YOU DONT MIND KEEP YOUR LAME OPINIONS TO YOUR SELF ABOUT PEOPLE PERSONALLY AND TALK ABOUT THE TROPICS....THINGS ARE GOING ON YOU KNOW

Yep. An insensitive drive-by snide remark of accusing others of multiple handles is typically what you get out of certain folks, especially when their lame attempts at humor so seemingly fail.

The avatar says it all. Consider the source. I wouldn't give him/her your time.
3162. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:


It should as the MJO is heading into the Caribbean now and propagating to the East.
So why are the models not ramping up 93L quickly, when all the right ingredients seem to be there?
3163. WxLogic
Quoting KY50:
The Navy Monterey Marine Office has posted "96L' on their website but no good pictures or location.

Has anyone seen anything yet today that confirms a new invest?


96L was deactivated 2 days ago:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al962011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108152106
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011081418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011081418, , BEST, 0, 367N, 638W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011081500, , BEST, 0, 382N, 636W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011081506, , BEST, 0, 397N, 631W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011081512, , BEST, 0, 410N, 619W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
3164. Grothar
Quoting KY50:
The Navy Monterey Marine Office has posted "96L' on their website but no good pictures or location.

Has anyone seen anything yet today that confirms a new invest?


I think that has been on there for a few days. We will be looking for 97L
3165. ackee
When will recon check out 93L
2011 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
93L.INVEST
07L.GERT DEACTIVATE

East Pacific
07E.GREG INIT
06E.FERNANDA

Central Pacific

West Pacific

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
3167. WxLogic
Quoting ackee:
When will recon check out 93L


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 17/1545Z
D. 15.0N 74.50W
E. 17/1615Z TO 17/2015Z --CORRECTED
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 18/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR SUSPECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA FOR 16/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 16/1300Z.

Should be departing @11:45 EST.
Even the UKMET spins up a cyclone, that's when you know you have good model consensus.
Quoting scott39:
So why are the models not ramping up 93L quickly, when all the right ingredients seem to be there?


Well, I don't agree that all the right ingredients are there just yet. The Caribbean air mass has been quite stable, which does not encourage TC activity, and the trades have been very brisk as we have seen with 93L trucking along close to 20 mph.

From now through the end of September we look for development to the East of the islands and not inside the Caribbean itself. Once a weak system without a closed low enters the Caribbean the odds of development fall below 50% until after 75W and this, combined with the fast forward speed would suggest that 93L is less, rather than more likely to develop quickly.
Woa the weirdest thing happened on my 3160 post. Somehow someone changed the image I posted to an earlier one. I posted 300 hours away and it suddenly changed to an earlier time. Is this site being hacked? Are we being attacked by a Megatroll.
Currently about to get slammed with a very slow moving but very heavy storm, nasty looking shelf cloud moving in, lots of lightning, and some greenish tint near the heavy core. Probably no hail actually making it to the ground, its too tropical for that. The PWAT is around 2.3 and instability is high, classic August storm is rolling in off the Gulf.
T's are up for 93L
17/1145 UTC 15.0N 72.7W T1.5/1.5 93L
3173. scott39
Quoting Neapolitan:
In the EPAC, Greg has formed:

EP, 07, 2011081712, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1034W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 40, 1008, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GREG, M,
Its my brother Gregs birthday today too. I will love to irritate him with the fact that a new TC was born on the same day as him. He just "LOVES" it when I try to have a conversation about tropical weather with him!
HUMMMM, another Amature question: If 93L "lives" Is there any chance it will "shoot the gap" & come into the gulf without hitting much land?? Sort of looks like it could on a map or 2, but of course I dont know a thing.
3175. WxLogic
Quoting CybrTeddy:
T's are up for 93L
17/1145 UTC 15.0N 72.7W T1.5/1.5 93L


Which coincides with 93L's increased organization.
Quoting scott39:
So why are the models not ramping up 93L quickly, when all the right ingredients seem to be there?


Notice the Caribbean at this time

3177. ackee
93L LOOKS like a Donut
There is consistency run after run. This need to be observed and addressed.

Quoting CaneHunter031472:
There is consistency run after run. This need to be observed and addressed.


Mother Nature will act accordingly in response to the computer models.
3180. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:


Well, I don't agree that all the right ingredients are there just yet. The Caribbean air mass has been quite stable, which does not encourage TC activity, and the trades have been very brisk as we have seen with 93L trucking along close to 20 mph.

From now through the end of September we look for development to the East of the islands and not inside the Caribbean itself. Once a weak system without a closed low enters the Caribbean the odds of development fall below 50% until after 75W and this, combined with the fast forward speed would suggest that 93L is less, rather than more likely to develop quickly.
Will the ingredients be just right for rapid developement after 75W? Ive read more than once, it is the hot spot in Caribbean.. or is that further N in the NW Caribbean
correct me if I am wrong but I think this is the storm most of the global models predict will become a strong tropical storm or hurricane and potentially threaten Florida due to the westward expansion and strength of the High
3182. ncstorm
Henry Margusity from accuweather is calling for a east coast rider..basically said the GOM would not see the African wave..

Link
Quoting Amature:

HUMMMM, another Amature question: If 93L "lives" Is there any chance it will "shoot the gap" & come into the gulf without hitting much land?? Sort of looks like it could on a map or 2, but of course I dont know a thing.


Nah, I just washed the boat so it'll come straight for Belize.
So the first 7 storms of the season were only Tropical Storms! Has this ever happened before? Isn't this some type of record? Anyway, there might be a long and intense ending to this season. It just may go well into December.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Mother Nature will act accordingly in response to the computer models.


I guess we're about to see whether that proves to be true. 300 hours from now.
3186. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:


Notice the Caribbean at this time

I dont understand that map sometimes. It will show no tropical formation...where one is in the process of developing. Then at other times it will show possible formation..where there is nothing going on.
Quoting scott39:
Will the ingredients be just right for rapid developement after 75W? Ive read more than once, it is the hot spot in Caribbean.. or is that further N in the NW Caribbean


The NW Caribbean has historically been an area where tropical cyclones undergo rapid intensification. Right now, we do not even have a TD and 93L is not presently heading in that direction. Its current track will take it close to the coast of Honduras which could interfere with any development that may commence today.

This is not a scenario where one would expect explosive development.

That's all from me for this morning. Have to go now so everyone have a nice day

Quoting ncstorm:
Henry Margusity from accuweather is calling for a east coast rider..basically said the GOM would not see the African wave..

Link

"If" this actually develops, I concur with Accuweather. An East Coast track appears more likely than entering the Gulf, IMO.
Quoting Waltanater:
So the first 7 storms of the season were only Tropical Storms! Has this ever happened before? Isn't this some type of record? Anyway, there might be a long and intense ending to this season. It just may go well into December.


Never has happened before, not that it means much. Last year the 2nd hurricane of the season formed next week - a season that had 12 hurricanes.
Quoting scott39:
I dont understand that map sometimes. It will show no tropical formation...where one is in the process of developing. Then at other times it will show possible formation..where there is nothing going on.


It's a probability map and we all know that things sometimes happen even though it is not probable that they will LOL
3191. dearmas
Quoting mcluvincane:
ECMWF 00z Run at 240hrs



GFS 00z Run at 240hrs



Is this 93??
Quoting Jedkins01:
Currently about to get slammed with a very slow moving but very heavy storm, nasty looking shelf cloud moving in, lots of lightning, and some greenish tint near the heavy core. Probably no hail actually making it to the ground, its too tropical for that. The PWAT is around 2.3 and instability is high, classic August storm is rolling in off the Gulf.
The thunder just woke me up, very loud, and deafening, sounds like bombs going off outside!!More like an atomic bomb, or something from the movie 'War of the Worlds'. That last one, I'm pretty much officially deaf!
Quoting ncstorm:
Henry Margusity from accuweather is calling for a east coast rider..basically said the GOM would not see the African wave..

Link


And I think he is right. Latest run already places it significantly right of the previous run, but still intense and inside the GOMEX. So I am sure subsequent runs will place it more and more to the right. Hopefully another fish storm and not even a EC rider.
Quoting kmanislander:


It's a probability map and we all know that things sometimes happen even though it is not probable that they will LOL


Very Very True...

And it's also useful to point out the flip side of that in light of the S. FL landfall models..

Likelihood or probability still leaves the door open for something -not- happening... however probable... as well.
Quoting dearmas:


Is this 93??

This is pointing to the next African wave that the GFS and other models suggest will develop.
3196. beell
GOM RGB Loop



A low to mid-level inverted trough located in the NE Gulf ridge weakeness. A curiosity


AL, 93, 2011081712, , BEST, 0, 149N, 733W, 25, 1009, DB
3198. scott39
Quoting ncstorm:
Henry Margusity from accuweather is calling for a east coast rider..basically said the GOM would not see the African wave..

Link
I didnt get that out of this article. It didnt say anything about where it would strike... if it does indeed develope.
3199. ncstorm
Quoting scott39:
I didnt get that out of this article. It didnt say anything about where it would strike... if it does indeed develope.


watch the video..its further down after the write up
question....locals met her in LA talking about the ridge over up keeping 93l at bay...I thought the ridge over us and TX was backtracking, possibly allowing more moisture for TX. splain Lucy :)
Quoting kmanislander:


The NW Caribbean has historically been an area where tropical cyclones undergo rapid intensification. Right now, we do not even have a TD and 93L is not presently heading in that direction. Its current track will take it close to the coast of Honduras which could interfere with any development that may commence today.

This is not a scenario where one would expect explosive development.

That's all from me for this morning. Have to go now so everyone have a nice day




i hope they listen to you i been trying to say that but they want to believe this is going to have RI..SO GOOD LUCK...
3202. ackee
Quoting Tazmanian:
AL, 93, 2011081712, , BEST, 0, 149N, 733W, 25, 1009, DB
wow pressure down wonder if we see a TD tonight
3203. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:


It's a probability map and we all know that things sometimes happen even though it is not probable that they will LOL
Or vice versa. LOL
looks like 93 is trying to get its self back together...
3208. snotly
I guess it could mean that so far conditions were favorable to develop the storms but shear was too high and dry air was too common.

Quoting Waltanater:
So the first 7 storms of the season were only Tropical Storms! Has this ever happened before? Isn't this some type of record? Anyway, there might be a long and intense ending to this season. It just may go well into December.
Quoting ackee:
wow pressure down wonder if we see a TD tonight


if we have a close low

Tazmanian

Quoting ackee:
wow pressure down wonder if we see a TD tonight


if we have a close low


taz it sure looks like its trying too...again..
This could turn out to be a 'Home grown' type season where systems find more favorable conditions west of 50 degrees longitude..Pardon me if Im wrong but during these type seasons dont storms go on and tend to be more of a threat to the US coast??
Here is my take on the African Wave that the models are so high on. Based on climatology and projected steering currents there are 1 of 2 scenarios that could happen...

1. If it develops a LLC prior to reaching the islands it should continue to develop and depending on interaction with other islands (i.e. Haiti) it could strike anywhere between North Carolina and New Orleans.

2. If it does NOT develop a LLC prior to reaching the islands, it probably won't develop until it reaches the western carib. and then would move much further south eventually striking somewhere between Texas and Central America.

Just my opinion. We will have to wait and see if we get development prior to reaching the islands (it would need to develop a LLC by Sunday for scenario #1 to happen as it is rare for storms to develop a LLC in the eastern Carib.).
Really nasty cell over me...

Quoting Tazmanian:


if we have a close low

We will.
the convection of 93L on the north side has diminished considerably...however its picked up on the south side...this tells me 93L is not going to become a TC definitely not today has a long ways to go..the ull ahead of it is going to hinder this from developing causing some shear.....conditions are just not great for 93L to develop now..
3216. dearmas
Quoting cat5hurricane:

This is pointing to the next African wave that the GFS and other models suggest will develop.


Oh ok Thanks.
Quoting Nolehead:

Tazmanian

Quoting ackee:
wow pressure down wonder if we see a TD tonight


if we have a close low


taz it sure looks like its trying too...again..



yup
Quoting Neapolitan:

We will.



what is that off the E NC
3219. angiest
Quoting Neapolitan:

We will.


Somewhere, sometime.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Really nasty cell over me...

Yep. I've been waiting for it to make its way over to westshore... boring day at work.
Reading back, I see deeper convection being discussed.

But, to me, the cloud top is temp much warmer than what usually qualifies as "deep convection":



Deeper, granted, but not especially impressive.
We may be dealing with TD 8 as early as tonight.
Quoting angiest:


Somewhere, sometime.



well it wont be today and 93L is moving at a pretty good clip...if it doesnt do anything today its going to run out of time...its moving in a due west direction and should be pretty close to honduras thursday evening..
There she blows..!
3226. scott39
Quoting ncstorm:


watch the video..its further down after the write up
Thats the first time ive seen that met. To be honest with you, I wasnt real impressed with his video presentation. It looked liked he was bias to the East Coast and said it would not go into the GOM. This AOI is still way too far out to say where its NOT going to go in 10 or 12 days. IMHO
I hope the HH flys today we neeed it badly
one we neeed to know if we have a closed LLC
two we neeed to know if we have a TD or TS
three we neeed the models to stop bull****@@@ us
Quoting cloudburst2011:
the convection of 93L on the north side has diminished considerably...however its picked up on the south side...this tells me 93L is not going to become a TC definitely not today has a long ways to go..the ull ahead of it is going to hinder this from developing causing some shear.....conditions are just not great for 93L to develop now..

What? i dont see convection diminished on the north side according to satellite images.
3229. angiest
Quoting atmoaggie:
Reading back, I see deeper convection being discussed.

But, to me, the cloud top is temp much warmer than what usually qualifies as "deep convection":



Deeper, granted, but not especially impressive.


Very strange satellite presentation right now.
93L Thunderstorms are wrapping in around its center from all sides, in about two hours it will have the look of DOOM! lol. There is no doubt in mind that this is a closed low. Honderus needs to be aware of it. I think we have a TD by 8PM tonight if it sustains its convection throughout the day.
Quoting tropicfreak:
We may be dealing with TD 8 as early as tonight.



when we get a close low yes we ma see a td tonight but

but if we dont have one then no td tonight
15N, 74W ... perhaps an area where center trying to get going. Right around that vicinity.

Link
Quoting ILwthrfan:
93L Thunderstorms are wrapping in around its center from all sides, in about two hourse it will have the look of DOOM! lol. There is no doubt in mind that this is a closed low. Honderus needs to be aware of it. I think we have a TD by 8PM tonight if it sustains its convection throughout the day.




it still needs a close low
Quoting CybrTeddy:
There she blows..!


Invest by tommorow or Friday.
Quoting Tazmanian:



when we get a close low yes we ma see a td tonight but

but if we dont have one then no td tonight


Right you are taz!
93L should be making a big slow down to 10-15kts at any time
Quoting Vincent4989:

What? i dont see convection diminished on the north side according to satellite images.
It did diminish and then rebuilt no big deal
Quoting Tazmanian:




it still needs a close low


Whats the latest surface analysis? It's center is tightening up as we speak. Next over pass I think will tell the tale.
93L is another dud that is wasting my time
Quoting RitaEvac:
93L is another dud that is wasting my time
You don't have to watch it then.
Quoting Vincent4989:

What? i dont see convection diminished on the north side according to satellite images.



well thats the way you see it...im looking at yesterday far more convection on the north side of 93L then it has now...
Out of curiosity, does anyone know why the South Eastern Pac. and S. Atlantic never see tropical cyclones. I know the S. Atlantic saw one in March a few years ago. But why don't cyclones form in those two basins?
93L is looking well organized, has a well defined surface circulation, 93L certainly does have the looks of a TD.

93L Floater Infared Rainbow
3244. ncstorm
Quoting weatherguy03:
Watching Invest 93L..Eastern Atlantic...MJO is Coming Back!


Thanks for the video!
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Out of curiosity, does anyone know why the South Eastern Pac. and S. Atlantic never see tropical cyclones. I know the S. Atlantic saw one in March a few years ago. But why don't cyclones form in those two basins?


Shear is too high.
3246. scott39
Quoting weatherguy03:
Watching Invest 93L..Eastern Atlantic...MJO is Coming Back!
I notice you didnt mention the wave coming off of Africa going into the Eastern/N GOM. There was model bomb after model bomb going off in it yesterday. I know models long term tracks change way out all the time, as will todays. Just Curious
the SAL is doing a real number on that DANGEROUS system you guys have been talking about the computers developing...this is going to be just another version of 93L...i would not get anyone to excited it hasnt even been TAGGED and INVEST YET...
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
It did diminish and then rebuilt no big deal

result of DMIN, the time when invests sleep
Quoting tropicfreak:
93L is looking well organized, has a well defined surface circulation, 93L certainly does have the looks of a TD.

93L Floater Infared Rainbow
I wouldn't say it has a well-defined surface circulation. Satellite imagery isn't that obvious that it is closed at the surface, and we don't have any surface obs backing up a closed circulation either. It does look good to me though. Almost there.
Quoting tropicfreak:
93L is looking well organized, has a well defined surface circulation, 93L certainly does have the looks of a TD.

93L Floater Infared Rainbow




93L does NOT HAVE A SURFACE CIRCULATION...it has a long ways to go for that...
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I wouldn't say it has a well-defined surface circulation. Satellite imagery isn't that obvious that it is closed at the surface, and we don't have any surface obs backing up a closed circulation either. It does look good to me though. Almost there.


It looks like the circulation is tightening up.
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Out of curiosity, does anyone know why the South Eastern Pac. and S. Atlantic never see tropical cyclones. I know the S. Atlantic saw one in March a few years ago. But why don't cyclones form in those two basins?


the South atlantic saw many not just one nine to be exact one was a Hurricane

here the link to the S Atlantic TC
Link
Quoting tropicfreak:


Shear is too high.


Thank you. I saw a map of all cyclones in the world from 1985 to 2005, and noticed that there were none in the SE PAC. and 1 in the S ATL.
Link
Quoting cloudburst2011:




93L does NOT HAVE A SURFACE CIRCULATION...it has a long ways to go for that...
You think by 5pm today we'll have a TD? Waters are warm enough...
Right about 15N, 74W ... you have the center trying to get going. That is what I see.
925 vort is increasing and looking at RGB and VIS sat loop it sure look to have a LLC look at it yourself look at the low level clouds
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


the South atlantic saw many not just one nine to be exact one was a Hurricane

here the link to the S Atlantic TC
Link


Thanks. I stand corrected. That was interesting. I appreciate it!
Quoting Waltanater:
You think by 5pm today we'll have a TD? Waters are warm enough...


Someone get rid of cloudburst, he obviously has nothing better to do than to stir up the blog. There are obvious signs of a surface circulation. Report, Ignore, Move on.
Good News for Texas near future which also could affect tropics down the road?

Our dreaded, dominant high pressure ridge currently centered over New Mexico will likely nudge east towards I-35, preventing any change in our weather for at least five days or so. By Monday, computer models suggest a storm in the Gulf of Alaska will help draw the high pressure ridge back to the west and open up the door to a northwest flow aloft. It could introduce a cold front to Texas as soon as next Tuesday at the same time the sea breeze starts to get active again. By midweek, some isolated showers may again be in the cards for us! For now, it's a very slim 10% chance Tuesday through Thursday.


As for long term relief, though it's still too early to say for sure, we do see signs of this heat wave finally breaking just prior to Labor Day weekend. Stay tuned for updates here and on the 8 Day Forecast.
Swing and a miss...

3262. hcubed
Quoting audreyritalillyLa44:
I guess you didnt understand either FREAK OF THE TROPICS OR FREAK OF NATURE OR TROPIC FREAK . ITS A VISION PROBLEM. YOU DO KNOW IM NOT SITTING AT MY HOUSE IN FRONT OF THE COMPUTER SCREAMING. I WOULD LIKE TO DO IT IN PERSON TO A FEW FOLKS THOUGH. REALLY WE ALL NO THE ASSUMPTION OF CAPS LIKE SCREAMING. THAT WAS 20 YEARS AGO. ONCE AGAIN. I CANT SEE I LEAVE IT ON SO I CAN SEE WHAT I TYPED..NOW PLEASE LEAVE ME ALONE AND LET ME ENJOY WHAT THE INTELLIGENT PEOPLE ARE SAYING ABOUT TROPICS THANKS


And, as I mentioned earlier, there are ways to increase the font size on YOUR computer without resorting to caps.

Just as there are ways to keep me from seeing posts that are in all caps.
Quoting Waltanater:
You think by 5pm today we'll have a TD? Waters are warm enough...



yes the waters are warm but in order for 93L to get its act together it has to SLOW DOWN...i dont think recon is going to check it out today unless it starts to SLOW DOWN..also the convection has to build up more on the north side and the PRESSURES have to start FALLING which they are NOT doing...
Quoting hcubed:


And, as I mentioned earlier, there are ways to increase the font size on YOUR computer without resorting to caps.

Just as there are ways to keep me from seeing posts that are in all caps.


I know the difference between a surface circulation and a mid-level, I'm not that stupid. Goodbye audrey.
93L has the looks of a pre-hurricane. Gains more convection and a surface circulation,TS. Clears out in the center half of what it is now,Hurricane.
3268. ackee
I am off to work cant wait recon to go in 93L should be intresting what they find
Quoting tropicfreak:


It looks like the circulation is tightening up.
Yes, but I'm not sure how much if that tightening has reached the surface yet.
Quoting scott39:
I notice you didnt mention the wave coming off of Africa going into the Eastern/N GOM. There was model bomb after model bomb going off in it yesterday. I know models long term tracks change way out all the time, as will todays. Just Curious



I try not to speculate that far out especially when system are just coming off the coast of Africa. The pattern for the rest of the month will have the two track I mentioned.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Yes, but I'm not sure how much if that tightening has reached the surface yet.


Today's recon mission should tell the tale.
3272. Mucinex
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Really nasty cell over me...



FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
942 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

FLC103-171545-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0064.110817T1342Z-110817T1545Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PINELLAS FL-
942 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LARGO...CLEARWATER


* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT

* AT 942 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF THREE INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

SPOTTERS NEAR CLEARWATER HAVE REPORTED NEARLY 2 AND A HALF INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES
IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good News for Texas near future which also could affect tropics down the road?

Our dreaded, dominant high pressure ridge currently centered over New Mexico will likely nudge east towards I-35, preventing any change in our weather for at least five days or so. By Monday, computer models suggest a storm in the Gulf of Alaska will help draw the high pressure ridge back to the west and open up the door to a northwest flow aloft. It could introduce a cold front to Texas as soon as next Tuesday at the same time the sea breeze starts to get active again. By midweek, some isolated showers may again be in the cards for us! For now, it's a very slim 10% chance Tuesday through Thursday.


As for long term relief, though it's still too early to say for sure, we do see signs of this heat wave finally breaking just prior to Labor Day weekend. Stay tuned for updates here and on the 8 Day Forecast.
That would be a nice change in weather.
It has the look of another storm near the same area in a similar stage of development, can't remember which one though....
93L will be passing over this buoy soon. Keep checking on it for pressure falls and a wind shift. So far the pressure isn't dropping and the wind is still out of the east, which suggests there is no surface circulation at this time.
Are you guys sure they're not going to just quash recon for today?

NoVaForecaster - 94L aka. pre-Dolly
Quoting zerveftexas:
Are you guys sure they're not going to just quash recon for today?

NoVaForecaster - 94L aka. pre-Dolly


You mean 93L.
Quoting cloudburst2011:



well i hope you are not to DISAPPOINTED when recon CANCELS AGAIN...
I really doubt they cancel with 93L receiving a T 1.5 rating from satellite estimates.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
93L has the looks of a pre-hurricane. Gains more convection and a surface circulation,TS. Clears out in the center half of what it is now,Hurricane.
Yup! You're absolutely right on that one.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I really doubt they cancel with 93L receiving a T 1.5 rating from satellite estimates.


Please ignore him, he's only here to cause trouble.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I really doubt they cancel with 93L receiving a T 1.5 rating from satellite estimates.


For god's sake please ignore him.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
93L will be passing over this buoy soon. Keep checking on it for pressure falls and a wind shift. So far the pressure isn't dropping and the wind is still out of the east, which suggests there is no surface circulation at this time.



glad someone knows the difference..
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
93L will be passing over this buoy soon. Keep checking on it for pressure falls and a wind shift. So far the pressure isn't dropping and the wind is still out of the east, which suggests there is no surface circulation at this time.


no not really that just could mean that the LLC is not closed still open and/or the LLC is small and has not yet reached the buoy
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The thunder just woke me up, very loud, and deafening, sounds like bombs going off outside!!More like an atomic bomb, or something from the movie 'War of the Worlds'. That last one, I'm pretty much officially deaf!


Yeah here too its very intense! Getting those positive strokes that have explosive and destructive energy, getting bright purple flashes here. I'm now closing in on 2 inches right now, and it looks like more heavy stuff is developing near the coast off to the southwest.

Ive had just under 12 inches now for August, and a very wet pattern will be taking shape for us over the next several days, each and every day.
guessing nhc will not go today but go tomorrow and find a cyclone
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I really doubt they cancel with 93L receiving a T 1.5 rating from satellite estimates.



we will have to see we will know soon enough..
Quoting tropicfreak:


You mean 93L.

No, I mean 94L. 93L was the wave west of Bertha that died. 95L came days after 94L began spinning, but 95L was named Cristobal well before 94L developed into Dolly.
Quoting islander101010:
guessing nhc will not go today but go tomorrow and find a cyclone


Recon is still scheduled for today.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good News for Texas near future which also could affect tropics down the road?

Our dreaded, dominant high pressure ridge currently centered over New Mexico will likely nudge east towards I-35, preventing any change in our weather for at least five days or so. By Monday, computer models suggest a storm in the Gulf of Alaska will help draw the high pressure ridge back to the west and open up the door to a northwest flow aloft. It could introduce a cold front to Texas as soon as next Tuesday at the same time the sea breeze starts to get active again. By midweek, some isolated showers may again be in the cards for us! For now, it's a very slim 10% chance Tuesday through Thursday.


As for long term relief, though it's still too early to say for sure, we do see signs of this heat wave finally breaking just prior to Labor Day weekend. Stay tuned for updates here and on the 8 Day Forecast.


Thank heavens! I will never gripe about cold weather again. This summer has been brutal. We're hanging by a thread with our cows. No grass left and no hay to buy. We'll be going to the sale barn this weekend and practically giving some cows away.
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 17/1545Z
D. 15.0N 74.50W
E. 17/1615Z TO 17/2015Z --CORRECTED
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Quoting zerveftexas:

No, I mean 94L. 93L was the wave west of Bertha that died. 95L came days after 94L began spinning, but 95L was named Cristobal well before 94L developed into Dolly.



Oh thought you were talking about another repeat of Dolly, apologize.
3293. Caner
Why even mention the world's 7th warmest July?

Do we ever mention the 7th fastest airplane in history?

Or the 7th most powerful empire?

If it's the top 3, mention it. If not, you're just horn-blowing your agenda.
Quoting PLsandcrab:


Thank heavens! I will never gripe about cold weather again. This summer has been brutal. We're hanging by a thread with our cows. No grass left and no hay to buy. We'll be going to the sale barn this weekend and practically giving some cows away.
publix must be making a killing its ridiculous what they want for a steak here in ecen fl. might be because so many people are on food stamps they are the ones buying it think that helps drive up their prices
Good loop of 93L, showing the increase in cloud cover and broad cyclonic turning.

Link
3298. 19N81W
wow the last time masters posted 93l was in the atlantic....
3299. kwgirl
Good morning all. By the looks of that satelitte picture it seems 93L is ramping up. Is there anything ahead of it to slow it down so it can really start building? Let's hope not! Anyway, another day of wait and watch, or watch and wait.
3300. WxLogic
Closest Buoy to 93L:

Station 42058


3301. txjac
Quoting PLsandcrab:


Thank heavens! I will never gripe about cold weather again. This summer has been brutal. We're hanging by a thread with our cows. No grass left and no hay to buy. We'll be going to the sale barn this weekend and practically giving some cows away.



My heart breaks for you and your cows ...I love cows and want one for a pet, wish I could take one off your hands ...

Quoting Caner:
Why even mention the world's 7th warmest July?

Do we ever mention the 7th fastest airplane in history?

Or the 7th most powerful empire?

If it's the top 3, mention it. If not, you're just horn-blowing your agenda.

Exactly right.
3303. divdog
why do people keep reponding to the guy who is just trying to aggravate them (re: recon cancellation). Just don't respond to him and he will go silent soon enuf.
My house is leaking in 2 places, I'm practically the only one that doesn't want rain.
Quoting zerveftexas:

It's plainly obvious that Jeff Masters is an AGW advocate.


Its HIS blog he can do whatever he wants to with it, and if he wants to talk about GW he can!!
Quoting WxLogic:
Closest Buoy to 93L:

Station 42058





Should be interesting to watch in a while not right there yet. Also note approaching some good heat potential : Link
3307. txjac
Quoting divdog:
why do people keep reponding to the guy who is just trying to aggravate them (re: recon cancellation). Just don't respond to him and he will go silent soon enuf.



I kind of think that he is just stating his own opinion of what he thinks will happen ...just as we all do here ...he's just more conservative than the rest of us. Maybe something is wrong with me but I dont "feel" like he's taunting
Not a troll, but I think there's a 70% chance they'll cancel recon today. It's clearly not a TD yet and besides, how often does recon go out when the NHC is only giving it a 30% chance to develop in the next two days?

People need to realize, it has a LLC (suface circulation) but what it lacks is a closed surface circulation. There's a major difference and people tend to mix that up.
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Its HIS blog he can do whatever he wants to with it, and if he wants to talk about GW he can!!

-1.
Quoting zerveftexas:
Not a troll, but I think there's a 70% chance they'll cancel recon today. It's clearly not a TD yet and besides, how often does recon go out when the NHC is only giving it a 30% chance to develop in the next two days?

People need to realize, it has a LLC (suface circulation) but what it lacks is a closed surface circulation. There's a major difference and people tend to mix that up.


They did it with Bret earlier this season,and it was at 40%.
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Its HIS blog he can do whatever he wants to with it, and if you have a problem with his topics then find another blog.....


relax Francis!
3312. divdog
Quoting txjac:



I kind of think that he is just stating his own opinion of what he thinks will happen ...just as we all do here ...he's just more conservative than the rest of us. Maybe something is wrong with me but I dont "feel" like he's taunting
stay on for a while a you may think differently.
Quoting zerveftexas:

It's plainly obvious that Jeff Masters is an AGW advocate.
once we have proof of a water rise maybe your character will jump on board
Looks like 93L has that "S" shape to it. Only a matter of time before it becomes better organized.
Everyone is entitled to his/her own opinion, and is welcome to share it just as long as they can do it in a respectful manner.
losing whatever convective spunk it might have had:

Quoting zerveftexas:
Not a troll, but I think there's a 70% chance they'll cancel recon today. It's clearly not a TD yet and besides, how often does recon go out when the NHC is only giving it a 30% chance to develop in the next two days?

People need to realize, it has a LLC (suface circulation) but what it lacks is a closed surface circulation. There's a major difference and people tend to mix that up.



you may be put on everyones ignore list lol...they dont like the truth around here or OPINIONS...i agree with you 100%
Quoting zerveftexas:

It's plainly obvious that Jeff Masters is an AGW advocate.

That's an odd label; it seems a little like calling an oncologist a "cancer advocate". Dr. Masters doesn't "advocate" for GW; he merely reports the science as it is.
Quoting islander101010:
once we have proof of a water rise maybe your character will jump on board

There's a difference between natural GW and AGW, the current warm period we are in is due to the former (PDO, ENSO, AMO etc, and PDO is beginning to trend down so we'll likely see a cool down soon), AGW is a political hoax in an attempt to gain influence and authority.
I know GW stands for Global Warming. What's the A in AGW?
That bouy hasn't updated in almost 2 hours

Continuous Winds TIME
(EST) WDIR WSPD
8:50 am E ( 81 deg ) 14.2 kts
8:40 am E ( 82 deg ) 14.8 kts
8:30 am E ( 84 deg ) 15.5 kts
8:20 am E ( 79 deg ) 17.3 kts
8:10 am ENE ( 78 deg ) 18.3 kts
8:00 am ENE ( 75 deg ) 19.2 kts
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
I know GW stands for Global Warming. What's the A in AGW?
Anthropogenic (caused or influenced by man)
I just ignore all the GW BS.
3325. WxLogic
12Z NAM... Here comes P17L:



500MB Showing the E CONUS TROF:

3326. divdog
Please just go away
93 L looking like only a cluster of storms with no low level circulation. It will track W to WNW and dissipate. We need to take focus on whats happening in the East Atl. next. IMO
Quoting USAFwxguy:
That bouy hasn't updated in almost 2 hours

Continuous Winds TIME
(EST) WDIR WSPD
8:50 am E ( 81 deg ) 14.2 kts
8:40 am E ( 82 deg ) 14.8 kts
8:30 am E ( 84 deg ) 15.5 kts
8:20 am E ( 79 deg ) 17.3 kts
8:10 am ENE ( 78 deg ) 18.3 kts
8:00 am ENE ( 75 deg ) 19.2 kts
Maybe 93L's epic winds knocked out the buoy. Or maybe not. I wish it would work though.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Anthropogenic (caused or influenced by man)


Ahhh, same anthro root as anthropology. Thanks!
Quoting zerveftexas:

There's a difference between natural GW and AGW, the current warm period we are in is due to the former (PDO, ENSO, AMO etc, and PDO is beginning to trend down so we'll likely see a cool down soon), AGW is a political hoax in an attempt to gain influence and authority.

It's fairly obvious considering the only scientists of whom offer direct support to the theory continue to receive grants from Government Agencies and/or work for the Government. ie: NASA, IPCC.
Quoting Caner:
Why even mention the world's 7th warmest July?

Do we ever mention the 7th fastest airplane in history?

Or the 7th most powerful empire?

If it's the top 3, mention it. If not, you're just horn-blowing your agenda.

Exactly wrong. ;-)

Climate is about trends, not single years. If the other Julys had occurred randomly throughout the nation's weather history, and were interspersed with coolest years here and there, your argument would perhaps have some validity. However, given that all those other warmest Julys have occurred very recently, your argument has no merit whatsoever. Here, have a look:

Uh-oh

You may wish to read up a bit before you start going on about agendas. To that end, something to get you started.
3332. Grothar
is 93L up to 30%?
Quoting Grothar:
is 93L up to 30%?
Who's 93L?
Quoting Grothar:
is 93L up to 30%?


Yes at 8 AM TWO.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Exactly wrong. ;-)

Climate is about trends, not single years. If the other Julys had occurred randomly throughout the nation's weather history, and were interspersed with coolest years here and there, your argument would perhaps have some validity. However, given that all those other warmest Julys have occurred very recently, your argument has no merit whatsoever. Here, have a look:

Uh-oh

You may wish to read up a bit before you start going on about agendas. To that end, something to get you started.

Since when does the "Nation's Weather History" only go back to 1880?
3336. WxLogic
Quoting Grothar:
is 93L up to 30%?


Yes... currently at 30%
Quoting islander101010:
once we have proof of a water rise maybe your character will jump on board

We already do have proof--many proofs, in fact--of sea level rise. It's just that some choose to ignore them. If anyone's interested, please let me know. ;-)
fishing this spring on the shoals mosquito lagoon i noticed higher water level than ive ever seen fished these flats for about 30 yrs
3339. 7544
when could we see 97l
3341. FLdewey
Now now children... simmer down. Give it some time... it's gotta start spinning first. Otherwise they should be flying the P-3 over Nebraska looking for gustnados.
Quoting zerveftexas:

Since when have libtards ever been able to handle the truth, anyways?

your character has high self esteem i see.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Yes at 8 AM TWO.


Was at 30 on the 2am TWO too lol.
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Its HIS blog he can do whatever he wants to with it, and if he wants to talk about GW he can!!


yes I am with you on that

Quoting farupnorth:



Should be interesting to watch in a while not right there yet. Also note approaching some good heat potential : Link


true we should see thing blowing like a nuke blast soon

Quoting zerveftexas:
Not a troll, but I think there's a 70% chance they'll cancel recon today. It's clearly not a TD yet and besides, how often does recon go out when the NHC is only giving it a 30% chance to develop in the next two days?

People need to realize, it has a LLC (suface circulation) but what it lacks is a closed surface circulation. There's a major difference and people tend to mix that up.


that you are very wrong about it more like 60-70% chance that the HH will go out and yes it has a LLC and you are maybe right about it not being closed "yet" but one thing I know it is closing up now silly the reasion why we send out the HH is to find out if there is a Closed Low Level Circulation and if it has enough wind blowing to be classified as a Tropical system

Quoting tropicfreak:


They did it with Bret earlier this season,and it was at 40%.


true indeed

Quoting weatherman566:
Looks like 93L has that "S" shape to it. Only a matter of time before it becomes better organized.


yeah I guess so more like a hurricane look
3348. Grothar
Quoting WxLogic:


Yes... currently at 30%


Thanks, I took a nap.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Exactly right.


The point is to illustrate, over time, the tendancy of temperature statistics. Its significant, if you have a 100+ year record of data, if the most recent data tends to cluster in the top 10%. Which it has. That's the implicit message although Jeff has looked at the detailed stats in other blogs. If you need to look up the word "implicit", you can find it here:

Link

93L's structure is looking better. Seems more-or-less vertically stacked.
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, I took a nap.



you didnt miss much...
Quoting stormpetrol:
respect your opinion recon go or not?
3353. txjac
Has anyone seen "sailingallover"? I havent seen him around since he holed up in the mangroves when the last storm passed by Puerto Rico
3354. Grothar
The more I look at 93L the less and less it impresses me. It's fast forward speed is really giving it a hard time.
the convection is starting to spread out the empty hole is now starting to get filled
3357. angiest
Quoting FLdewey:
Now now children... simmer down. Give it some time... it's gotta start spinning first. Otherwise they should be flying the P-3 over Nebraska looking for gustnados.


Send it some of your avatar's spin.
for the blog, taken from crown weather's site:

"It is notable that we continue to have agreement and consistency among the models that a significant tropical cyclone will develop west of 60 West Longitude next week. As of this morning, this disturbance (30W longitude) is battling dry air and water vapor imagery indicates that we should continue to see it battle dry air right up to at least 50 West Longitude. Also, these same models were forecasting late last week that Invest 93L was going to be a significant tropical cyclone and well we don’t have that."

Quoting SouthDadeFish:
The more I look at 93L the less and less it impresses me. It's fast forward speed is really giving it a hard time.



you hit that right on the nose...SPEED is whats keeping from 93L from organizing...
Quoting FLdewey:
Now now children... simmer down. Give it some time... it's gotta start spinning first. Otherwise they should be flying the P-3 over Nebraska looking for gustnados.


It is well established that "simmering down" is no longer possible, since about 1995 or so.


000
NOUS42 KNHC 161530 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT TUE 16 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-077 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 17/1545Z
D. 15.0N 74.50W
E. 17/1615Z TO 17/2015Z --CORRECTED
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 18/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR SUSPECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA FOR 16/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 16/1300Z.

HHs still a go so far!
Yesterday, I posted that you should put milk jugs of water in your freezer before storms to keep food colder longer in the event of a power loss. That prompted a 2-hour debate on the food safety hazards of reusing milk jugs. The better suggestion would have been to use gallon jugs of bottled water, then you could also use them for drinking. Anyway, at risk of creating more unintended controversy, I have another hurricane preparedness tip:

My neighborhood was beat up badly in Hurricane Ivan, but the only damage to the inside of our well-constructed homes came from water intrusion through roof vents which, in turn, caused ceilings to collapse. I avoided this by taking foam pool flotation "noodles," cutting them to the length I needed, and wedging them in the horizontal roof vents. The noodles held fast in the wind because they fit tightly, and no water came in. I hope there are no concerns with this tip, and please understand I'm not suggesting that people swim on their rooftops.
Quoting weathers4me:
93 L looking like only a cluster of storms with no low level circulation. It will track W to WNW and dissipate. We need to take focus on whats happening in the East Atl. next. IMO


I strongly disagree with you. It is well organized and a circulation is very evident, convection is continuing to fire as well.
3364. 7544
the area off africa should get a yellow circle soon is that the one the models show as the big one tia
Quoting serialteg:
for the blog, taken from crown weather's site:

"It is notable that we continue to have agreement and consistency among the models that a significant tropical cyclone will develop west of 60 West Longitude next week. As of this morning, this disturbance (30W longitude) is battling dry air and water vapor imagery indicates that we should continue to see it battle dry air right up to at least 50 West Longitude. Also, these same models were forecasting late last week that Invest 93L was going to be a significant tropical cyclone and well we don’t have that."


+++10000
Henry Margusity..

It won't let me post his map, sorry folks.

Quoting 7544:
the area off africa should get a yellow circle soon is that the one the models show as the big one tia


From accuweather

1. Gert is falling apart and heading out to sea, so that will be that with Gert.

2. The wave in the eastern Caribbean should become a tropical depression in two days and may become TS Harvey before plowing into the Yucatan this weekend. Jamaica may also get hit by heavy rains as the system moves by.

3. The mega-wave out in the Atlantic is the one that all the operational models are keying on. The Euro and GFS both develop a hurricane out of the system, and if Harvey does not get named, then that system will become Harvey; if not, it will be Irene.

I do believe the system in 10 days will be nearing the East Coast of the U.S. and could be the first hurricane impact along the Eastern Seaboard. We have plenty of time to look at the exact track, so no one should be panicking just yet.

By the way, we made it to the G storm without a hurricane yet...

3368. jpsb
Quoting weatherman566:
Looks like 93L has that "S" shape to it. Only a matter of time before it becomes better organized.
I agree
Quoting 7544:
the area off africa should get a yellow circle soon is that the one the models show as the big one tia


Yes.
I see 93 showing a definite spin up and inward pull in the last couple of frames. It appears the organization is beginning to occur.
Quoting tropicfreak:


I strongly disagree with you. It is well organized and a circulation is very evident, convection is continuing to fire as well.



you keep thinking that...
Quoting reedzone:
Henry Margusity..



Morning Reed!

Thoughts on 93L? It looks really healthy IMO.
Quoting serialteg:
for the blog, taken from crown weather's site:

"It is notable that we continue to have agreement and consistency among the models that a significant tropical cyclone will develop west of 60 West Longitude next week. As of this morning, this disturbance (30W longitude) is battling dry air and water vapor imagery indicates that we should continue to see it battle dry air right up to at least 50 West Longitude. Also, these same models were forecasting late last week that Invest 93L was going to be a significant tropical cyclone and well we don’t have that."



Models are more bullish with this one and also are consistent. They were never consistent with 93L this far out.. A few strong runs then weakened it.
3374. usa777
Even if 93 does spin up it looks like it's headed into central America.
3375. 7544
Quoting tropicfreak:


Yes.


thanks also to note now the gfs 06z has it going to fla and up the east side and not the gom this run
Quoting usa777:
Even if 93 does spin up it looks like it's headed into central America.


It's expected to slow down and make a more northerly turn towards the Yucatan.
reed,

what's your take on this next potential system headed westward toward the Florida peninsula/EGOM?
93L running out of time too. It really added some moisture to the atmosphere though.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Morning Reed!

Thoughts on 93L? It looks really healthy IMO.


My big focus is the potential East Coast Storm.. However I think 93L may make TD status tomorrow.
Quoting E46Pilot:
I see 93 showing a definite spin up and inward pull in the last couple of frames. It appears the organization is beginning to occur.


yes I am with you on that while doing this it may just close off it LLC in time for the HH to fly in
Quoting reedzone:


My big focus is the potential East Coast Storm.. However I think 93L may make TD status tomorrow.


Ok thanks, we shall see what recon finds today.


Look at the spin on this wave here: Link
dont trust the global model "bombing out" a tc at 200+ hrs,not impossible ,but far from likely imo
Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
Yesterday, I posted that you should put milk jugs of water in your freezer before storms to keep food colder longer in the event of a power loss. That prompted a 2-hour debate on the food safety hazards of reusing milk jugs. The better suggestion would have been to use gallon jugs of bottled water, then you could also use them for drinking. Anyway, at risk of creating more unintended controversy, I have another hurricane preparedness tip:

My neighborhood was beat up badly in Hurricane Ivan, but the only damage to the inside of our well-constructed homes came from water intrusion through roof vents which, in turn, caused ceilings to collapse. I avoided this by taking foam pool flotation "noodles," cutting them to the length I needed, and wedging them in the horizontal roof vents. The noodles held fast in the wind because they fit tightly, and no water came in. I hope there are no concerns with this tip, and please understand I'm not suggesting that people swim on their rooftops.

1/2 pint water bottles work better if clustered. Easier to fit in and around items.
3385. FLdewey
Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
Yesterday, I posted that you should put milk jugs of water in your freezer before storms to keep food colder longer in the event of a power loss. That prompted a 2-hour debate on the food safety hazards of reusing milk jugs. The better suggestion would have been to use gallon jugs of bottled water, then you could also use them for drinking. Anyway, at risk of creating more unintended controversy, I have another hurricane preparedness tip:

My neighborhood was beat up badly in Hurricane Ivan, but the only damage to the inside of our well-constructed homes came from water intrusion through roof vents which, in turn, caused ceilings to collapse. I avoided this by taking foam pool flotation "noodles," cutting them to the length I needed, and wedging them in the horizontal roof vents. The noodles held fast in the wind because they fit tightly, and no water came in. I hope there are no concerns with this tip, and please understand I'm not suggesting that people swim on their rooftops.


Does FEMA ask that you coat the noodles in bleach first? ;-)
93l is staying well south of Cuba & prolly gonna head wsw. No way it's getting anywhere near america. texas sorry,,rain chances will have to wait..
hello,

strange how the GFS shows it going up the east coast after hitting florida.

almost hinting at a possible trough? weird because the Bermuda High is supposed to be parked in the Western atlantic and pretty strong at that

You don't think the EGOM is equally at risk?
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Exactly right.


Uhhhhh, no, exactly wrong. And as far as the "Nation's Weather History" going back to 1880, what?
3389. jpsb
Quoting Neapolitan:

We already do have proof--many proofs, in fact--of sea level rise. It's just that some choose to ignore them. If anyone's interested, please let me know. ;-)
Not really, the only really reliable info on sea level would come from satellite measurements, since land masses slowly rise and fall for all kinds of reasons. And sea level measurements via satellites are a fairly recent development so there is not enough data points to allow any conclusions.
Hello Everyone! Is Levi's tropicaltidbit out yet?
Quoting cat5hurricane:

It's fairly obvious considering the only scientists of whom offer direct support to the theory continue to receive grants from Government Agencies and/or work for the Government. ie: NASA, IPCC.


I guess ignorance is bliss on this blog.
Quoting stillwaiting:
dont trust the global model "bombing out" a tc at 200+ hrs,not impossible ,but far from likely imo


I wouldn't exactly call development of an African wave in August into a hurricane 'far from likely'. It might not, but climatologically speaking it has a good chance of becoming a hurricane, even a major one.
3382. GTcooliebai 3:12 PM GMT on August 17, 2011 +0


Look at the spin on this wave here: Link

If it can get away from that SAL, its going to explode. It's huge!! I'm surprised it is not yellow yet.
3395. Grothar
Looks like a good blob off of the East coast of Florida

Quoting kshipre1:
hello,

strange how the GFS shows it going up the east coast after hitting florida.

almost hinting at a possible trough? weird because the Bermuda High is supposed to be parked in the Western atlantic and pretty strong at that

You don't think the EGOM is equally at risk?
This storm could be an anomaly, that follows a strange track, last nights GFS showed a storm riding up the West Coast of FL. after passing through the Keys, this morning it shifted a little to the right and now has it going up the spine of the state, the ECMWF keeps it just offshore of the East Coast of FL. with the Subtropical Ridge building in.
3362. PensacolaBuoy 11:05 AM EDT on August 17, 2011 +5
Yesterday, I posted that you should put milk jugs of water in your freezer before storms to keep food colder longer in the event of a power loss. That prompted a 2-hour debate on the food safety hazards of reusing milk jugs.


yeah, more like a 20 hour ball of confusion....
Quoting usa777:
Even if 93 does spin up it looks like it's headed into central America.


I don't trust the models what so ever till the HH flys in and we get a better idea of there the LLC is where it moving and how strong it is with out even that doesen't make sense to look at them
hello everyone, This is my vry first post on here and as the name suggest i want to learn more about what goes on in here. I dont know squat about thus weather information.

been reading everyones post for two years now and been able to pick up just a few things of whats being said, If the regulars on here dont mind i may ask a few question ( have note book handy) i live about 1 hour from the gulf of mexico in louisiana so i pay close attention to all the post as well as Dr. matthews information. i will thank everyone ahead of time for your answers and patience.
didnt the models show emily crushing s.fl at one point,i remember she was also supposed to be a big one long range...
Link

Check this loop out with the massive wave models predict
Quoting jpsb:
Not really, the only really reliable info on sea level would come from satellite measurements, since land masses slowly rise and fall for all kinds of reasons. And sea level measurements via satellites are a fairly recent development so there is not enough data points to allow any conclusions.

Precisely.

And, how are those satellites funded? And by what entity?

Hmmm...
3404. hydrus
Two very large waves... And a seriously potent wave behind them over Africa..
Quoting jpsb:
Not really, the only really reliable info on sea level would come from satellite measurements, since land masses slowly rise and fall for all kinds of reasons. And sea level measurements via satellites are a fairly recent development so there is not enough data points to allow any conclusions.



Never been able to get my head around the idea of a satellite reliably measuring sea level to millimetre accuracy.
Quoting stillwaiting:
didnt the models show emily crushing s.fl at one point,i remember she was also supposed to be a big one long range...


Of course, but some here seem to have a short memory and are quick to jump the gun time and time again, like I said, some, not all.
Quoting GTcooliebai:


Look at the spin on this wave here: Link


I also notice the tremendous amount of dry air ahead of this wave and the upper level low to the northwest of it. Still several obstacles for this to overcome before any kind of development can occur. Probably still why NHC hasn't "tagged" it yet. Also, notice how quickly the convection has waned since this morning.

Link
Buoy updated: Still shows east winds and a rising pressure. We may not see development until Friday, unless it crashes into Honduras and Nicaragua.

Link
93L is practically on top of this buoy and surface pressures are rising. I wouldn't be surprised if the HH tasked for today is cancelled.


Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 4.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.3 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 78 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.05 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 74.8 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 86.7 °F
anticyclone over 93L, 20kt shear over 30W wave



3411. shawn26
That could end up being a very large storm.
Quoting weathers4me:
3382. GTcooliebai 3:12 PM GMT on August 17, 2011 +0


Look at the spin on this wave here: Link

If it can get away from that SAL, its going to explode. It's huge!! I'm surprised it is not yellow yet.

SAL doesn't look too bad, in fact the wave behind our AOI has a clear path to develop now.

3413. Mucinex
Quoting FLdewey:


Does FEMA ask that you coat the noodles in bleach first? ;-)

If they are the official FEMA pool noodles they will come factory-installed with Formaldehyde. No need to deal with pesky bleach. Also, they will arrive in time for Christmas.
Quoting kmanislander:
93L is practically on top of this buoy and surface pressures are rising. I wouldn't be surprised if the HH tasked for today is cancelled.


I'd be suprised if it isn't.
Quoting kmanislander:
93L is practically on top of this buoy and surface pressures are rising. I wouldn't be surprised if the HH tasked for today is cancelled.


Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 4.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.3 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 78 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.05 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 74.8 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 86.7 °F


what i have been saying all morning PRESSURES have never FALLEN..
Quoting Jedkins01:


Of course, but some here seem to have a short memory and are quick to jump the gun time and time again, like I said, some, not all.


Ummm.. No there were no reliable models predicting Emily to strike florida as a major hurricane. We have the ECMWF,GFS,UKMET,CMC all in agreement with this one
Quoting kmanislander:
93L is practically on top of this buoy and surface pressures are rising. I wouldn't be surprised if the HH tasked for today is cancelled.


Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 4.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.3 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 78 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): 0.05 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.7 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 74.8 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 86.7 F


I am looking at that buoy, but looks like data is over two hours old. Am I missing something, which be extension, would mean you are missing something?
3418. jpsb
Quoting yonzabam:



Never been able to get my head around the idea of a satellite reliably measuring sea level to millimetre accuracy.
Lol, you need a really really good clock.
Quoting USAFwxguy:


I am looking at that bouy, but looks like data is over two hours old. Am I missing something, which be extension, would mean you are missing something?


Disregard. Got the right buoy now.

Don't judge me!
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I'd be suprised if it isn't.


I agree. With cost cutting everywhere the gas and man hours would be better spent on a real threat later on. When the season gets busy, and all indications are that it will, there will be several flights into multiple systems so conserving resources early in the season makes all the sense in the world.
Quoting kshipre1:
reed,

what's your take on this next potential system headed westward toward the Florida peninsula/EGOM?


While there's many days to watch for change. I have never seen all the models being consistent on a storm that hasn't even formed; however, it is past the Cape Verde Islands already. It's something to start taking seriously and if you live from LA to Maine, you need to make sure you are prepared just in case pre-Irene threatens ur area.
Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
Yesterday, I posted that you should put milk jugs of water in your freezer before storms to keep food colder longer in the event of a power loss. That prompted a 2-hour debate on the food safety hazards of reusing milk jugs. The better suggestion would have been to use gallon jugs of bottled water, then you could also use them for drinking. Anyway, at risk of creating more unintended controversy, I have another hurricane preparedness tip:

My neighborhood was beat up badly in Hurricane Ivan, but the only damage to the inside of our well-constructed homes came from water intrusion through roof vents which, in turn, caused ceilings to collapse. I avoided this by taking foam pool flotation "noodles," cutting them to the length I needed, and wedging them in the horizontal roof vents. The noodles held fast in the wind because they fit tightly, and no water came in. I hope there are no concerns with this tip, and please understand I'm not suggesting that people swim on their rooftops.


Need to make sure you take them back out as soon as the danger passes or it could overheat the shingles making them completely useless for any further weather situations. Roofs need to breathe or the shingles will cook/dry rot and become penetrable to water.
3423. ncstorm
Quoting Jedkins01:


Of course, but some here seem to have a short memory and are quick to jump the gun time and time again, like I said, some, not all.


the models were never consistent with any of the previous storms that have developed..but this time its different..you have several models (ECWMF, GFS, UKMET, NAM, CMC)predicting development for about a week now and they still keep running the same set up with development..you cant dispute that we wont have development, the dispute can only be in the tracking of the system now..
Quoting reedzone:


While there's many days to watch for change. I have never seen all the models being consistent on a storm that hasn't even formed; however, it is past the Cape Verde Islands already. It's something to start taking seriously and if you live from LA to Maine, you need to make sure you are prepared just in case pre-Irene threatens ur area.


Hi Reed-

What effects will SAL have on the 'Pre-Irene', or pre-Harvey' for that matter if 93L kaputs.
3425. ncstorm
Quoting mcluvincane:


Ummm.. No there were no reliable models predicting Emily to strike florida as a major hurricane. We have the ECMWF,GFS,UKMET,CMC all in agreement with this one

LOL..I just said that..must be that wilmington flair..
Quoting ncstorm:


the models were never consistent with any of the previous storms that have developed..but this time its different..you have several models (ECWMF, GFS, UKMET, NAM, CMC)predicting development for about a week now and they still keep running the same set up with development..you cant dispute that we wont have development, the dispute can only be in the tracking of the system now..


+1000
3427. WxLogic
HH on it's way:

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 15:16Z
Date: August 17, 2011
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 01
3428. ncstorm
Quoting Grothar:
Looks like a good blob off of the East coast of Florida


I called the east coast this morning..lets see if something develops from that front (click on NWS Fronts)..pretty large blob indeed..

Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Hi Reed-

What effects will SAL have on the 'Pre-Irene', or pre-Harvey' for that matter if 93L kaputs.


Gotta head to work, but shear is forecast to lower by the end of the week I think.. It's gonna be a very interesting week next week.
new blog.
3431. WxLogic
12Z GFS Initialization:

Quoting caneswatch:


Uhhhhh, no, exactly wrong. And as far as the "Nation's Weather History" going back to 1880, what?


Man I'm hurtin' and mad today, brah. Can't we win with all this cheating?? I mean, really.

Feels bad, man. Real bad.
3433. Grothar
GFS 006z: Wonder what that 12Z will look like
This is 228 hours out. I think that is around 9.5 days.


3434. hydrus
I do believe that 93 is getting organised rather quickly now...
3435. jpsb
Quoting reedzone:


While there's many days to watch for change. I have never seen all the models being consistent on a storm that hasn't even formed; however, it is past the Cape Verde Islands already. It's something to start taking seriously and if you live from LA to Maine, you need to make sure you are prepared just in case pre-Irene threatens ur area.
Well since I have watched system after system fail to develop into much this year, I am going to have to see one develop first before I believe a 200 hours model forecast calling for a major hurricane. Something is killing systems this year and until that stops not much is going to happen.
3436. Grothar
Quoting ncstorm:


Actually, I called in last night.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Precisely.

And, how are those satellites funded? And by what entity?

Hmmm...


Does it really matter if it's government funded? AGW isn't political BS, It's real. I remember a story a few years ago quoting some republican who was in office saying that he wanted to grow orange-fruit trees in the Arctic.

Tell me, how is it political?
Quoting WxLogic:
HH on it's way:

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 15:16Z
Date: August 17, 2011
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 01


Well, there you are. I'm officially suprised.
Looks like we will have our Depression fairly soon. I definitely see it forming up.
Quoting Grothar:
GFS 006z: Wonder what that 12Z will look like
This is 228 hours out. I think that is around 9.5 days.


Grothar is it me or are the models a little slow with movement on this one. It's already in the central Atlantic, & we all saw how quickly 93L got pushed westward by the Ridging to its north.
3441. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
GFS 006z: Wonder what that 12Z will look like
This is 228 hours out. I think that is around 9.5 days.


Howdy Gro...That would be a slow mover if that track were to materialize..Lotsa heavy rain and flooding issues..
1008 mb closed low?

3443. Drakoen
ASCAT reveals 93L has yet to form a surface circulation

I think the HH should go out, definitely.
Seems 93L is begining to get much better organized.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tropics-bin/tropics.cg i?REGION=atlantic&SECTOR=tropics&AGE=Latest&SIZE=F ull&INTERVAL=Most_Recent&PRODUCT=vapor&PATH=/atlan tic/tropics/vapor&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE= Instant

Jamaica's met office issued a public service announcement Tuesday evening regarding expected thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday.