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Globe has 7th warmest June on record; Typhoon Ma-on a threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:13 PM GMT on July 15, 2011

June 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated June the 8th warmest on record. June 2011 global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were well above average, the 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes, from the coast of Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N, were 0.9°C above average, the 5th warmest such temperatures in the past 160 years. The record was set in 2010, with a temperature of 1.3°C above average.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average in June 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Record cold temperatures in the stratosphere
Global temperatures in the lower stratosphere, where the bulk of Earth's protective ozone layer lies, were at their coldest levels on record during June, according to both the University of Alabama and RSS, Inc. This is the second consecutive month of record cold in the stratosphere. Global warming theory predicts that in order to counter-balance the large amount of warming that occurs in the lower atmosphere near the surface when heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide are released into the air, the stratosphere must cool. Thus, a record cold stratosphere is consistent with global warming. However, the majority of the stratospheric cooling that has occurred since the 1990s is probably due to destruction of ozone by chlorine-containing gases like CFCs. Ozone strongly absorbs solar energy, warming the air around it, so if there is less ozone around, there will be less absorption of solar energy and a thus a cooler stratosphere.

Earlier this year, the World Meteorological Organization announced that depletion of the ozone layer—the shield that protects life on Earth from harmful levels of ultraviolet rays—reached an unprecedented level over the Arctic this spring because of the continuing presence of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere, and a very cold winter in the stratosphere. The Arctic ozone declined 40% between December and March.

U.S. heat wave to last at least another week
An unusually intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat wave over the majority of the U.S. continues to set numerous daily record highs. The latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the ridge of high pressure entrenched over the country responsible for the heat wave will move little over the coming week, and the heat wave should continue for all but the Pacific Northwest through July 23. The GFS model does show that the ridge will break down some during the period 10 - 16 days from now, but such long range forecasts have low skill, and the heat wave could easily remain entrenched over the country through the rest of July. I'll present a more detailed look at the heat wave next week.


Figure 2. Typhoon Ma-on at 04:15 UTC July 15, 2011, over the West Pacific Ocean. The small swirl at lower left is Tropical Depression Tokage. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Powerful Category 4 Typhoon Ma-on is headed westward over the West Pacific Ocean, but is expected to encounter a trough of low pressure this weekend that will recurve the storm to the north and northeast, bringing it very close to the coast of Japan early next week. With water temperatures along the path of the typhoon ranging from 28 - 30°C, and wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Ma-on has the potential to hit Japan as a major Category 3 storm.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development through July 21.

I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting scott39:
But will depth temps in the GOM still support a major TC in mid July? This is a question in general.


They certainly could, all other parameters being equal.

1502. JLPR2
The Eastern Pacific has proven TCHP isn't that important, it helps, but it isn't a major factor.
The Blob, Panhandle style.

That blob looks like it could head west possibly thus the Gulf Casters are here LOL.
Quoting SouthALWX:
@Kori
You are the individual that used the term "SST". I agree that TCHP isnt extraordinarily high, but the SSTs, which you said werent very high, are. I wasnt arguing over the usefulness of that fact to a forecast, just that I disagreed with the statement.


They are high, but they aren't exceptionally high, which is my point. Looking at archived SST anomalies from past years, the current water temperatures aren't overly impressive in comparison to the last six years. With the exception of 2008, we really aren't that much warmer than other years.
comparing to the last 6 years is a different technique, but one could argue that all those years were exceptional...

And can the gulf support a major TC? Yes. Absolutely.
Quoting KoritheMan:


They certainly could, all other parameters being equal.



do you have the direct link to this image? I have been trying to find the heat ocean content map for a while now.
yellow color on here!!
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:


these thunderstorms seem to be relentless. They aren't being blown away like we have been witnessing the shear doing for much of this year so far. Latest sat runs show 98L still holding together.
Well water temperatures seem to be like this every year now, the water always gets hot here on the West Coast of Florida.

Whether you believe in man caused GW or not, things are getting slowly toastier. However I don't think that necessarily has to be a bad thing, tropics once dominated as a mostly a world climate.
1512. scott39
Quoting weatherxtreme:
That blob looks like it could head west possibly thus the Gulf Casters are here LOL.
I think of myself as a Gulf Coast dweller, trying to cast TCs away from me:)
That's a big friggin wave coming off Africa.

Quoting wolftribe2009:


do you have the direct link to this image? I have been trying to find the heat ocean content map for a while now.


Thank me later.
Quoting SouthALWX:
comparing to the last 6 years is a different technique, but one could argue that all those years were exceptional...

And can the gulf support a major TC? Yes. Absolutely.


It should be noted that temps in the northern gulf ocean are around 90 degrees.
1516. aquak9
wandering thru the models is kinda like buying lottery tickets. Ya just never know.

1517. JLPR2
Well now, this is a interesting way of showing all the Hurricanes of a season (2010) in the same map.

Quoting weatherxtreme:
That blob looks like it could head west possibly thus the Gulf Casters are here LOL.


Blobs to the east, blobs to the west, we're surrounded. Funny thing is, with all the talk of 98L possibly moving towards the GoM, and our blob building south, they could interact and create.....................

wait for it................






!!!!!SUPER BLOB!!!!!!
Quoting PcolaDan:


Blobs to the east, blobs to the west, we're surrounded. Funny thing is, with all the talk of 98L possibly moving towards the GoM, and our blob building south, they could interact and create.....................

wait for it................






!!!!!SUPER BLOB!!!!!!


LOL!! Too funny
Quoting PcolaDan:


Blobs to the east, blobs to the west, we're surrounded. Funny thing is, with all the talk of 98L possibly moving towards the GoM, and our blob building south, they could interact and create.....................

wait for it................






!!!!!SUPER BLOB!!!!!!


I LIKE
LOL
:o)
1521. geepy86
Quoting PcolaDan:


Blobs to the east, blobs to the west, we're surrounded. Funny thing is, with all the talk of 98L possibly moving towards the GoM, and our blob building south, they could interact and create.....................

wait for it................






!!!!!SUPER BLOB!!!!!!

sounds like a movie
Quoting aquak9:
wandering thru the models is kinda like buying lottery tickets. Ya just never know.



so true!

the old redneck 401K
Quoting geepy86:

sounds like a movie


Funny You say that after I watched Cat 6 and Cat 7 today on syphy Channel



Taco :o)
Quoting taco2me61:


Funny You say that after I watched Cat 6 and Cat 7 today on syphy Channel



Taco :o)


I don't think I could even make it through movies like that! lol, well on second thought it would be fun for a good laugh
.
at 8pm on july 16 2011

TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 10N22W TO 17N21W MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. EXAMINING RECENT HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM DATA AND THE UPPER
AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSES...IT INDICATES THE WAVE PASSED DAKAR
SENEGAL AROUND 15/1200 UTC. GLOBAL MODEL DATA ALSO INDICATES THE
WAVE AXIS COINCIDES WITH AN 850-700 MB LOWER ATMOSPHERIC TROUGH
THAT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
CURRENTLY CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO ISOLATED MODERATE ALONG
THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 15W-19W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 10N41W TO 18N44W MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS FAIRLY BROAD COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL ATLC THIS EVENING AND ALSO COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB
TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 44W. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOTED AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR ONLY LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND A LACK OF ANY CONVECTION. THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR
LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS A STRONG DUST LAYER FOLLOWS TO THE
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 08N58W TO 13N54W MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEADING
EDGE OF A ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 51W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 18N93W TO 23N91W IN THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER SHOWS THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ENHANCED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 23N AND IS GENERATING A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION...ONE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 88W-92W AND THE OTHER
FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 96W-98W.

Quoting Jedkins01:


I don't think I could even make through movies like that! lol, well on second thought it would be fun for a good laugh


Thats exactly what I did.... "I Laugh Through the Whole Thing"

Then I thought to myself why in the world was I sitting here watching these 2 movies as stupid as they were????? Then I heard Thunder and said oh yea its storming out side and I can't go Fishing"

Taco :o)
Quoting geepy86:

sounds like a movie


I nominate FLdewey to be the director.
Quoting PcolaDan:


I nominate FLdewey to be the director.


Hehe...
Wind are relaxing aloft, which should help it stand more vertical. It's still a little top heavy to the southeast it appears to me.

DMAX on the way..

XX/INV/98L
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
DMIN on the way..



I think you mean DMAX, DMIN was several hours ago as the sun was setting
Quoting taco2me61:


Thats exactly what I did.... "I Laugh Through the Whole Thing"

Then I thought to myself why in the world was I sitting here watching these 2 movies as stupid as they were????? Then I heard Thunder and said oh yea its storming out side and I can't go Fishing"

Taco :o)


hahaha nice
1535. Ryuujin
Is it just me or does 98L look like it is breaking/has broken off from the main Low? It seems to be spinning off at a completely different tangent compared to how the rest of that trof is moving.
1536. geepy86
I thought "the blob" was going to the carolinas.
don't tell press I said that
That 98L is really getting organize. I know that some pop up storms off an old front can blow up but fiz in a few days. Look wats north of it rite now. a storm worse nightmare.
N. Korea cleaning up after damaging rain

FLOODS triggered by torrential rain that hit North Korea last week washed away homes, roads and farmland and caused unspecified casualties.

Heavy rain from July 12 to 15 left more than 20,000 hectares of farmland destroyed or submerged across the country, Korean Central News Agency said.

The western and northeastern regions of Hwanghae and South Hamgyong were hit hard, with more than 250 millimetres of rain recorded in some areas, it said.

The downpour left several dykes, public buildings as well as roads destroyed, and the eastern city of Hamhung saw casualties, it said without giving details.

Reconstruction efforts were under way in affected areas, it said.

After decades of deforestation, the impoverished North is particularly vulnerable to flooding. In 2007 it reported at least 600 dead or missing from devastating floods.

State media said last week a tropical storm that hit the country in June had caused casualties and left more than 150 homes and 20,000 hectares of farmland destroyed or submerged.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
That's a big friggin wave coming off Africa.



TXcaster here.... TX droughts are ended by TX floods and vice versa. That out-of-Africa blob can come right
on over... the sadistic high we've had for months and months would keep it from landfall, stall it, and let it spin off rain for everywhere the drought is about to kill off.


hmmm..
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I think you mean DMAX, DMIN was several hours ago as the sun was setting


Thanks for the correction, long day today..
1542. nigel20
MA-ON (08W) is expected to maintain its NW track within the next 12 hours before turning more to the NNW through 48 hours. It shall enter the northeasternmost corner of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon with a little increase in intensity. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.

THIS AFTERNOON (SUN): Regains Category 4 status...enters the northeasternmost corner of the PAR...about 760 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM JUL 17: 24.1N 134.9E @ 215kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (MON): Continues to intensify as it turns NNW, exiting the PAR...about 615 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM JUL 18: 25.7N 133.9E @ 220kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (MON): Maintains its Category 4 status, turns poleward (north)...about 340 km ESE of Naje, Japan [2PM JUL 18: 27.6N 133.1E @ 220kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slowly as it executes recurvature towards the NE...about 315 km SE of Kagoshima City, Japan [2AM JUL 19: 29.6N 132.9E @ 215kph].

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 205 km/hr (110 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (08W) is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to slowly intensify within the next 12 to 24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 350 kilometers (190 nautical miles). MA-ON remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,665 kilometers (900 nautical miles) across.

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 3...off the coast of Shikoku and Honshu (Japan)...prepares to make landfall [2AM JUL 20: 33.1N 134.9E @ 195kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 2 as it begins Extratropical transition...moves Eastward after making landfall along Southern Honshu, just south of Kyoto City...passing close to the south of Tokyo [2AM JUL 21: 34.6N 139.2E @ 160kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 1 as it moves East to ESE away from Japan and into the open seas of the Western Pacific...nears Extratropical status [2AM JUL 22: 33.7N 145.4E @ 120kph].

This is my Honest opinion on Ma-On.
I can not see how Ma-On is still being forecast to regain Cat 4 strength. Looks worse today than it did yesterday. Dry air is so entrained it will be a weak system once it get's closer to Japan, which would be a good thing, IMO.

Water Vapor(click for loop)


Infrared Ch2(Click for loop)


Visual(click for loop)



98L SSMIS Rain Image

FLPandhandleJG Notice your little rain maker on the left side of this image.
1544. nigel20
1545. nigel20
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Thanks for the correction, long day today..


not a problem, happens to all of us
98 imo is moving more SE to me. I see no westerly component yet.
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


hmmm..


I see what you're "hmming" about, but i would wait for at least another few frames before i'd say anything lol
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TYPHOON INENG (MA-ON)
11:30 AM PhST July 17 2011
===========================================

The Typhoon with an international name of "MA-ON" has entered Philippine Area of Responsibility and was named "INENG".

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ineng (Ma-on) located at 24.5°N 135.0°E or 1,240 km east northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gustiness up to 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 12 knots.

Additional Information
======================
This weather disturbance is still far to affect any part of the country.

Typhoon INENG is expected to enhance southwest monsoon that will bring occasional rains in Visayas and Mindanao.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Dry air just opened up the SE quad of Ma-On, looping all over the place now.

Quoting fuzzy3456:


I see what you're "hmming" about, but i would wait for at least another few frames before i'd say anything lol


yeah.. getting interesting tho.. had almost 10inches of rain here and counting still ..
does anyone think 98L will develop?
1555. Patrap
Quoting bigwes6844:
does anyone think 98L will develop?


With all due respect I am just "Not Sure"
If it does or it does not :o) I need more information 1st before I think it will develop.


Taco :o)
I hear ya Aussie.. I hope the lil panhandle blob turns out to be nothing tho..
98L trying to build some real estate in the N Quad.

Quoting taco2me61:


With all due respect I am just "Not Sure"
If it does or it does not :o) I need more information 1st before I think it will develop.


Taco :o)
i hope it does cause florida needs it
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
98L trying to build some real estate in the N Quad.

I think that's the frontal boundary, but could it become a feeder band? Interesting to watch one break free from a front so quickly. It's been awhile since we've seen this.
1561. 7544
hi everyone waiting on dmax here but it looks like 98l is being pushed s or se at this hour anyone think it may go further south than expected then make the turn west loooks to be at lake o latitude now? tia
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I think that's the frontal boundary, but could it become a feeder band? Interesting to watch one break free from a front so quickly. It's been awhile since we've seen this.


That little blip @ 29/79 is the COC

Blip but, right over the center. Indicative of relaxing shear..
1563. Patrap
Quoting 7544:
hi everyone waiting on dmax here but it looks like 98l is being pushed s or se at this how anyone think it may go further south than expected then make the turn west loooks to be at lake o latitude now? tia


Low is sitting EENE of Cape Canaveral, just FYI.
1565. Seawall
It's the BLOBtwins... LOL
Quoting bigwes6844:
i hope it does cause florida needs it


I understand, But I don't think you want it like that.....
Heck everyone needs the Rain from FL to TX. Thats including us on the AL Gulf Coast. But I'm not wanting a Storm at all because I just can't put out anymore money for clean-up after I spent a lot in Joplin MO to help my Mom, Brothers and Sisters with the F5 Tornado that went thru there....

Now I do want to say we got some Rain on Saturday and it was about 2 1/2" from that Low on the north Gulf Coast....

I just Really donot want a Storm thats all:o)

Taco :o)
1567. scott39
Quoting Patrap:
Do you think it is moving more S/SSW? It looks to have a pretty good spin. The convection to me, gives 98L a perception that it is moving SSE.
Quoting Patrap:
i see some wrapping around the center. I think it may be a depression soon.
1569. Patrap
Looks to be moving round 180-185 degrees @ times,,lotsa angular mo moving around as its rather intriguing to watch tonight

Quoting scott39:
Do you think it is moving more S/SSW? It looks to have a pretty good spin. The convection to me, gives 98L a perception that it is moving SSE.

Moving NNE to me, opps, forgot I'm looking at it upside down. LOL
Quoting bigwes6844:
i hope it does cause florida needs it



We don't need a low to bring us rain, its the rain season, and daily heavy rains continue to fall. Florida is not in trouble, just some people here are having relapses and seem to forget that lots heavy rain has been falling consistently for 3 weeks now. The drought will continue to improve and will hopefully be gone before you know it.

However, I wouldn't mind a low bringing extra rain, as a weather freak any extra action is welcome here :)
1572. geepy86
Quoting Patrap:
Looks to be moving round 180-185 degrees @ times,,lotsa angular mo moving around as its rather intriguing to watch tonight

kinda cute
Quoting bigwes6844:
i see some wrapping around the center. I think it may be a depression soon.
NOT SOON!! its only at 20%
1574. scott39
Quoting Patrap:
Looks to be moving round 180-185=7 @ times,,lotsa angular mo moving around as its rather intriguing to watch tonight
When the wind shear becomes more favorable I look for it to become even more interesting to watch.
Quoting taco2me61:


I understand, But I don't think you want it like that.....
Heck everyone needs the Rain from FL to TX. Thats including us on the AL Gulf Coast. But I'm not wanting a Storm at all because I just can't put out anymore money for clean-up after I spent a lot in Joplin MO to help my Mom, Brothers and Sisters with the F5 Tornado that went thru there....

Now I do want to say we got some Rain on Saturday and it was about 2 1/2" from that Low on the north Gulf Coast....

I just Really donot want a Storm thats all:o)

Taco :o)
yea you rite and i understand but we got a lot of rain here in new orleans today. We were in a huge drought so hopefully that soaker help today and i also heard tommorrow and monday 50 to 60% chance.
1576. geepy86
Quoting Jedkins01:



We don't need a low to bring us rain, its the rain season, and daily heavy rains continue to fall. Florida is not in trouble, just some people here are having relapses and seem to forget that lots heavy rain has been falling consistently for 3 weeks now.

However, I wouldn't mind a low bringing extra rain, as a weather freak any extra action is welcome here :)

got 1.5 inches yesterday. This little dude needs to go to texas, I her they need it.
Quoting scott39:
Do you think it is moving more S/SSW? It looks to have a pretty good spin. The convection to me, gives 98L a perception that it is moving SSE.


Melbourne radar does indeed show a nice mid-level circulation moving south.
1578. 7544
Quoting hurricane23:


Melbourne radar does indeed show a nice mid-level circulation moving south.



yeap agree here
Quoting scott39:
When the wind shear becomes more favorable I look for it to become even more interesting to watch.

On the edge of 5-10kts of VWS now.

If 98L keeps moving in a southerly direction it should be in 5kts of VWS as conditions look to stay the same.
Quoting geepy86:

got 1.5 inches yesterday. This little dude needs to go to texas, I her they need it.


Yeah Florida is good to go and will continue to get more rain and improve over the weeks ahead.. As far as Texas goes, they need serious help rain wise.
1581. scott39
Quoting hurricane23:


Melbourne radar does indeed show a nice mid-level circulation moving south.
I dont see Fl. disrupting 98L much, if it crosses into the GOM
Quoting Jedkins01:



We don't need a low to bring us rain, its the rain season, and daily heavy rains continue to fall. Florida is not in trouble, just some people here are having relapses and seem to forget that lots heavy rain has been falling consistently for 3 weeks now. The drought will continue to improve and will hopefully be gone before you know it.

However, I wouldn't mind a low bringing extra rain, as a weather freak any extra action is welcome here :)
I had seen a story on friday about how bad it was in lake o. They showed a low level of water and wildfires breaking out around their because of no rain. so maybe s. florida can use it then.
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
NOT SOON!! its only at 20%
i think it may jump though jason to 30 or 40% real soon. As long as it stays away from that shear it has a chance.
1584. scott39
Quoting AussieStorm:

On the edge of 5-10kts of VWS now.

If 98L keeps moving in a southerly direction it should be in 5kts of VWS as conditions look to stay the same.
Hmmm
1585. scott39
Has 98L dropped faster and farther S than forecasted?
ok I'm out for the Night....

I will check back in later today and see what our Little Blob is doing....

Taco :o)
Quoting scott39:
Has 98L dropped faster and farther S than forecasted?



98L is E/ENE of Cape Canaveral, FL
Yeahhh!!! Ma-on is weakening...ingesting some dry air...common trough I'm pulling for you :)

Quoting jasonweatherman2011:

Great Scotts! That's massive!
1591. Patrap
With the shear relaxing quickly as it slides South, 98L getting a few more bones on the Left side finally tonight.

Quoting bigwes6844:
I had seen a story on friday about how bad it was in lake o. They showed a low level of water and wildfires breaking out around their because of no rain. so maybe s. florida can use it then.



Yeah well, its not like that there now, it was probably a delayed story.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah well, its not like that there now, it was probably a delayed story.
they showed it friday.
1594. JLPR2
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:


d**n, it keeps growing.
someone getting heavy rain tonight!!
1596. scott39
Quoting Patrap:
With the shear relaxing quickly as it slides South, 98L getting a few more bones on the Left side finally tonight.

Its as moist as pudding there and wind shear is relaxing. What is it waiting on?
Quoting Patrap:
With the shear relaxing quickly as it slides South, 98L getting a few more bones on the Left side finally tonight.


Nice 3D Radar loop of 98L

This one is for you FLPandhandleJG.
Link
Quoting bigwes6844:
they showed it friday.


Despite the rains we're just treading on normal at the moment. That has nothing to do with the 20+ inch deficit that still looms.
Quoting AussieStorm:

On the edge of 5-10kts of VWS now.

If 98L keeps moving in a southerly direction it should be in 5kts of VWS as conditions look to stay the same.
hey aussiestorm, i got a good friend of mine that works with me from sydney. He wanted to tell u where u from and wats up. I had told him bout ya on here.
Quoting bigwes6844:
hey aussiestorm, i got a good friend of mine that works with me from sydney. He wanted to tell u where u from and wats up. I had told him bout ya on here.

Ok cool. I take it he's a good Aussie bloke.
Quoting bigwes6844:
they showed it friday.


I understand, but my point is, that isn't going on there anymore, just because it saw it on Friday doesn't mean its what is currently going on there now. I live in Florida and have been doing lots of traveling around the State lately, especially in Central and South Florida. It wasn't like that on Friday and isn't like that now.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


That little blip @ 29/79 is the COC

Blip but, right over the center. Indicative of relaxing shear..
I think you're right. The shear is lifting out.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Despite the rains we're just treading on normal at the moment. That has nothing to do with the 20+ inch deficit that still looms.
Yeah it was a doc. on it on nightly news with brian williams and they showed that crazy seen down there in lake o. Well im glad u guys are getting the much deserve rain.
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:

My cow! Tt's getting big, big, big, big!
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah well, its not like that there now, it was probably a delayed story.


Big fire broke out Kennedy Space Center, close to the VAB like day before yesterday. Cocoa caught a fire the day before that. We know you been getting plenty but my neighbors are still holding back with the fireworks for fear of burning it all down.

Here's an bit of a recent article about the drought around lake O..

South Florida Water Management District meteorologist Geoff Shaughnessy agreed that drought conditions will depend on how tropical storms play out in the next few months and when the wet season ends.

"We don't want it ending early," Shaughnessy said. "We were so dry and things got so low, we still have a ways to go."

He said if rain is heavy enough and storms are prominent enough, that "it is possible but not likely" that the whole drought, including the water level of Lake Okeechobee, could be OK by November.
1607. 7544
98l getting better organized and still moving south hmmm
1608. JLPR2
The blob closing in to the coast of Africa is expanding, but loosing steam.


Typical...
i am waiting for the 2am update soon
1610. Patrap


Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
i am waiting for the 2am update soon
what you think it may be. my guess is 30%
Quoting JLPR2:
The blob closing in to the coast of Africa is expanding, but loosing steam.


Typical...



The wave Axis is at 22W

000
ABNT20 KNHC 170533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING ABOUT 125 MILES
EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS
OF A ORGANIZED WIND CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE ...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 170533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING ABOUT 125 MILES
EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS
OF A ORGANIZED WIND CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE ...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


As expected just a mid level circulation there right now but slowly getting better organized. Should have a decent LLC going later today.
1616. 7544
south it goes
i see a great spin to invest98L ON Floater - Visible Loop!!
Quoting hurricane23:


As expected just a mid level circulation there right now but slowly getting better organized. Should have a decent LLC going later today.


Indeed.

Shear is extremely low to 98L's south and divergence seems decent. It will be interesting to see if this system will take advantage of the environment over the next couple of days.

Not sure if that recon flight later today will hold up...

200 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING ABOUT 125 MILES
EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS
OF A ORGANIZED WIND CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE ...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

they could have at lest bump it up too 30%
1621. JLPR2
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



The wave Axis is at 22W



Yeah, noticed that a little earlier, it's purely a blob.
Maybe if it catches up with the wave it could help it out with convection, but those two will definitely eat up some SAL.
Quoting Tazmanian:
they could have at lest bump it up too 30%


While convection has become better consolidated, surface pressures are high still.
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, noticed that a little earlier, it's purely a blob.
Maybe if it catches up with the wave it could help it out with convection, but those two will definitely eat up some SAL.


Catch up? It's associated with the wave. Generally speaking, convection is found to the east of the wave axis, with the west side being relatively dry. This is similar to Northern Hemispheric tropical cyclones in general.
gotcha marsh boots on stand by patrap
looks like were in for some more precipitation



Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:


While convection has become better consolidated, surface pressures are high still.
WIND SHEAR ONLY 5 KNOTS SSOUTH OF INVEST 98L
Quoting CybrTeddy:


While convection has become better consolidated, surface pressures are high still.


ok



night well see how it looks in the am
1627. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


Catch up? It's associated with the wave. Generally speaking, convection is found to the east of the wave axis, with the west side being relatively dry. This is similar to Northern Hemispheric tropical cyclones in general.


Well you got me there.
Meant in the moisture department seeing as the west side is moving into the SAL.
Quoting 7544:
south it goes


With 98L going South, is there something that is going to push or guide it west/nw or will it be steered east or NE? kinda confused.
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
WIND SHEAR ONLY 5 KNOTS SSOUTH OF INVEST 98L


Wind shear only being 5 knots still does not change the facts that surface pressures are still high; I do not have an issue with them leaving this at 20%
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, noticed that a little earlier, it's purely a blob.
Maybe if it catches up with the wave it could help it out with convection, but those two will definitely eat up some SAL.



Kinda puts the "" on how big this wave actually is. Could be one of the first big boys of the season, timing fits..
If per "Neutral" holds, long track CV storms may be far and few between. Development W of 40W would seem more likely in a neutral year, due to the high pressure.
1632. JLPR2
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
If per "Neutral" holds, long track CV storms may be far and few between. Development W of 40W would seem more likely in a neutral year, due to the high pressure.


Yeah, I believe 2005's CV season wasn't so active either.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Wind shear only being 5 knots still does not change the facts that surface pressures are still high; I do not have an issue with them leaving this at 20%
Pressure need to drop on the surface for 98L to be given a higher percentage.
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, I believe 2005's CV season wasn't so active either.


Irene was the lonely only, barely.

1635. JLPR2
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Irene was the lonely only, barely.



The high must have kept the other disturbances in check, at least until they moved farther away from it.

But what 2011 hasn't seen is one of the huge SAL outbreaks from 05.

So yeah, probably a weak CV season but not as dead as in 05.
Not so, the Gulf of Guinea is well below average this time of year, which means that more heat will be focused towards the Cape Verde area - similar to last year.
Quoting JLPR2:


The high must have kept the other disturbances in check, at least until they moved farther away from it.

But what 2011 hasn't seen is one of the huge SAL outbreaks from 05.

So yeah, probably a weak CV season but not as dead as in 05.


Of note however, is that all of the analog years from the CSU June forecast indicate CV canes will be the norm and SC/NC/VA better watch out. Go figure....
1638. JLPR2
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Of note however, is that all of the analog years from the CSU June forecast indicate CV canes will be the norm and SC/NC/VA better watch out. Go figure....


Well, I guess that's what happens when we compare to past seasons, no two seasons are alike. XD

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not so, the Gulf of Guinea is well below average this time of year, which means that more heat will be focused towards the Cape Verde area - similar to last year.


Yeah, although CV storms will probably ride a little lower than normal due to the strong high.
The first step in computing environmental steering is determining a level to use.

General guidance for which layer or levels to use for steering are:
When in doubt, use the 10-level deep-layer-mean.
The 500-hPa level is the best single level from which to estimate future motion.
Be aware, particularly for large storms, that inflow at 1000 hPa and outflow at 100 hPa might distort the steering flow.
Weak storms are steered by a shallow layer that can be estimated by using the 700 hPa alone.
For storms embedded in a sheared environment, the lower portion of the storm tends to follow the low-level flow and the upper portion of the storm tends to follow the upper circulation and storm weakening is typical. Thus, since the "eye" is associated with the lower level circulation, it is better to use 850 or 700 hPa.
For very large storms, interactions between the storm and the environment make it difficult to define a steering flow even with the availability of a DLM.
Deep Layer Mean(DLM).



Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
TYPHOON MA-ON (T1106)
15:00 PM JST July 17 2011
==========================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Ma-On (935 hPa) located at 24.6N 134.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 15 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Storm Force Winds
==================
140 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
500 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
350 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 28.4N 132.1E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 32.3N 132.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 33.4N 135.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
Large-scale environmental steering is usually computed by separating the TC wind fields from the large-scale environmental wind fields.
The separation of flow is anywhere from 1-7� radially from the TC center.

The winds on the outside of the separation are used for determining environmental steering and are commonly named the steering flow.
Generally, more intense storms extend higher in the troposphere and have higher steering levels
the steering level can change through intensification.

Dry air has disrupted Ma-On's eye wall.
x
That blob off the Fla Panhandle seems to be headed south now.
Quoting FrankZapper:
That blob off the Fla Panhandle seems to be headed south now.



There's also a nice little mid-level spin to it, as indicated by the radar loop.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



There's also a nice little mid-level spin to it, as indicated by the radar loop.
I'm in NOLA but I have reatives vacationing in FWB who were really dumped on by that low all day. I pray that it moves out.
is something trying to spin-up again in the BOC ?? the latest infared shows a nice blow-up of storms..
new t.storm pop up again
Good job Jason, on all the images you post. But, do you ever sleep??
Quoting CarolinaBeachGirl:
Good job Jason, on all the images you post. But, do you ever sleep??
my dog wake me up!
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING ABOUT 125 MILES
EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS
OF A ORGANIZED WIND CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE ...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.
Will the HH'er be needed, maybe for research, if nothing more.
LOL oh, okay. You both need to go back to sleep!
cant be too bad out there maybe 5mph wind locally e cen fl. 98 does not seem in any hurry to cross fl. might not. for the people who said it had no chance yesterday oh well
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 21N50W TO
12N48W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 18N-21N.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

wow!!
Click images for loops.






maybe 30% at 8am
If this season would have started like 2005, we would be on the letter E already of named storms.
If convection keeps up should be a depression later today,maybe?
1664. P451
Quoting TaylorSelseth:
Dry air has disrupted Ma-On's eye wall.


Story of it's life really. Would have easily been a super typhoon if not for that dry sinking air from the high to it's north all it's life.

OHC has run out as well.



Image is 18Z Saturday 17hrs old so visualize it's current location on the image.
1665. Matt74
Quoting CarolinaBeachGirl:
Good job Jason, on all the images you post. But, do you ever sleep??
I was just wondering the same thing.
Quoting tazzer06:
If this season would have started like 2005, we would be on the letter E already of named storms.

This was never going to be like 2005, 2004 or 2008 maybe.
1667. P451
Quoting overwash12:
If convection keeps up should be a depression later today,maybe?


The FLA coastal invest has a way to go. Surface structure is not there.
Quoting P451:


The FLA coastal invest has a way to go. Surface structure is not there.
Yeah,alot of the winds to the north of the system are from the high pressure to it northeast. We have had a seabreeze here in N.C. the past 2 days.
right over the gulf stream
1671. P451


Nice call whoever mentioned the disturbance off the east coast, not sure if it was a model or wundergrounder, but it's there, would love the rain but it's going in the wrong direction :(
just to give the blog an update with the tropical wave near the Antilles rain has fallen and right now we are in the calm before the storm mode however i notice that convection seems to be firing all over the Atlantic today!
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
just to give the blog an update with the tropical wave near the Antilles rain has fallen and right now we are in the calm before the storm mode however i notice that convection seems to be firing all over the Atlantic today!
Good morning. What island are you on ? That wave there looks pretty healthy.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. What island are you on ? That wave there looks pretty healthy.


am on the island of grenada
1677. P451
Quoting AussieStorm:

This was never going to be like 2005, 2004 or 2008 maybe.


Attempting to assign an analog year with intent to predict an upcoming season is an absolutely futile endeavor.

After a season concludes only then can you look back and say "It was similar to _____".

We are simply not there in our understanding of weather to base a forecast off of an "analog year" of choice.

Too many factors are overlooked when this is done. "Water was warm in the ____ region in ____, and it's the same this season, so this season will be just like that one." is a terrible way to fly.
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


am on the island of grenada
Thanks.
1679. WxLogic
Good Morning...

98L has been quite persistent and compared to yesterday it now has a better LLC and a little better consolidated MLC.

500MB:



850MB:



- This shows nicely in the Shortwave loops:



- Warm waters, relatively low shears <10 KTS and DMAX has given it a little boost and if this convection persists then I won't be surprised a HURR Hunter will be dispatched early this afternoon.

- Finally given current steering... I feel 98L will be sitting in the Gulf Stream for a while with little movement soon as it would appears that is approaching a COL region.

1680. hulakai
6 july storms have formed in our aoi's general vicinity since 1908. 2 cat 1 hurricanes hit the carolinas. The others were inconsequential n.fla/carolina events. the last was a td in 1980. ya might say we're due
the new models on 98 come out when?
1682. WxLogic
If it convection persists and/or LLC becomes vigorous enough (assuming little convection is seen which exposes it) then this could be the HH Plan for today (subject to change):

000
NOUS42 KNHC 161715
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
115 PM EDT SAT 16 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-046

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 17/1615Z
D. 29.2N 78.6W
E. 17/1815Z TO 17/2345Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 18/0600
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 18/0300Z
D. 29.0N 78.5W
E. 18/0500Z TO 18/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY
FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
BOC blob looks the best just to close to land as usual
i like to know what is going to be on the 8am update maybe going up little like 30%
1686. P451
Quoting AussieStorm:
AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.
Will the HH'er be needed, maybe for research, if nothing more.


I would guess not as the system can be analyzed from radar and buoy/land observations. Unless they think "A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING" I can't see why they would fly.

Also consider it is of no real threat and likely won't be for some time.

They do surprise once in a while but given cut backs in recent years I don't see it as a vital mission. More of a waste.
1687. WxLogic
In regards models... here is what they have so far on 98L:

1688. WxLogic
Given current organization and environment... I would up the changes to 40% by 8AM.
1689. P451
Until we see some movement in pressure the system will be slow to threaten depression status.





Also consider steering... heading south to bend SW into Florida. Bahama Islands as small as they are can and do disrupt the organization of systems.

Nice looking blob and nice mid level rotation for certain.

I don't expect it to rapidly surprise us however.


Well, it's amazing weather here on eastern Long Island today, again, and I'm going to take advantage of the last day of this mini-vacation and check in later tonight once I'm back home.

Have a good day all.
frist time i see invest 98L look like this
1691. FLdewey
I see the popcorn shrimp has been upgraded to a tiger prawn.

Conditions are still classified as "meh" for this system.
1692. bwi
BTW -- Excellent blog this morning -- lots of informative information and thoughtful comments.

I was looking at the HPC site -- they're obviously not impressed with the Florida blob at this point. Their short range forecast doesn't show much of any deepening from the current 1014mb, and the morning prelim long range drops it.

The only mention in the discussions I could find was in the QPF:

SRN FL...

THE WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE CNTRL FL COAST FCST
TO PUSH SWWD INTO SRN FL DAY 1. THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE PCPN
AMTS OVR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA..WITH LOCALIZED HVY
AMTS POSSIBLE.

Maybe if NHC is impressed in the 8am note and ups the percentage, they'll have a conference call with HPC and think some more about it!
1693. FLdewey
NWS MLB isn't too excited...

MON...THE FINAL FACTOR IN THE COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR EAST. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN
DRIER THAN IN THEIR PREVIOUS FEW RUNS AS DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND
EAST IS WRAPPED AROUND THE DISTURBANCE INTO THE PENINSULA AND PUSHES
THE MOISTURE AND REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH.

So it might actually dry us out LOL.
Ok guys i want you to understand that when people say that this season wont be as active as 04 and 08 your wrong. 2005 was just a lucky year where we had unpredictable activity. 04 and 08 were both neutral just like us. only problem is 04 had all of its activity from early august and onward unlike 08 where we had all the activity spread out like in july august september. Conditions show an acitve season so just because we dont have anything in the middle of july wont mean our season wont be active. the only way you could be really sure if your season wont be active is if its an el nino year. we are not so that shouldnt happen
Quoting FLdewey:
NWS MLB isn't too excited...

MON...THE FINAL FACTOR IN THE COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR EAST. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN
DRIER THAN IN THEIR PREVIOUS FEW RUNS AS DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND
EAST IS WRAPPED AROUND THE DISTURBANCE INTO THE PENINSULA AND PUSHES
THE MOISTURE AND REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH.

So it might actually dry us out LOL.
hot and steamy
LOOK BETTER ON HERE
I just love the models for 98L. It looks like half of them are Democrats & the other half are Republicans. They just can't agree on which direction 98L will go.
looking better this morning i am still waiting for 8am update
1699. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

up to 30%
1701. Dakster
Gainesville Gator - Good Analogy... It also doesn't know whether to increase its windspeed or cut it.

1702. FLdewey
10 more precent... woop woop. Ike with the sneak attack. #FTW

So it looks like it's not crossing Florida after all... the K storm crowd will be devastated.

I guess it's not a shrimp storm... tis a phish storm.



I got a brand new pair of roller skates, You got a brand new key.
Quoting bwi:
BTW -- Excellent blog this morning -- lots of informative information and thoughtful comments.

I was looking at the HPC site -- they're obviously not impressed with the Florida blob at this point. Their short range forecast doesn't show much of any deepening from the current 1014mb, and the morning prelim long range drops it.

The only mention in the discussions I could find was in the QPF:

SRN FL...

THE WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE CNTRL FL COAST FCST
TO PUSH SWWD INTO SRN FL DAY 1. THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE PCPN
AMTS OVR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA..WITH LOCALIZED HVY
AMTS POSSIBLE.

Maybe if NHC is impressed in the 8am note and ups the percentage, they'll have a conference call with HPC and think some more about it!


During hurricane season, HPC and NHC have a conference call every day at 1700.
Miami NWS Discussion

FOR MONDAY...THE SURFACE AND THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WASH OUT ON MONDAY OVER THE CWA...AS THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS IS FORECAST BY THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM FLORIDA.
THIS WILL STILL KEEP
VERY HIGH PWATS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH THE LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW. SO WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH IN
SCATTERED POPS OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WORDING FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MONDAY.
1705. IKE

Quoting FLdewey:
10 more precent... woop woop. Ike with the sneak attack. #FTW

So it looks like it's not crossing Florida after all... the K storm crowd will be devastated.

I guess it's not a shrimp storm... tis a phish storm.



I got a brand new pair of roller skates, You got a brand new key.
lol
1706. Dakster
As a thought and suggestion to the Wunderground Web Master... Why not just link the NHC updates to post automatically into the blog. That way we don't get duplicate posts...

I do appreciate the enthusiasm of the blog, regardless...

--- Back to 98L ---

If it continues on its Southern course it should enter an area of low shear (5 kts according to the last shear map I looked at). Does anyone else think that if it does, it has a good chance of becoming a TD?

FLDewey - Does tempt fate by teasing the K crowd. When 98L or whatever name it gets dissipates, then tease them.
Quoting FLdewey:
10 more precent... woop woop. Ike with the sneak attack. #FTW

So it looks like it's not crossing Florida after all... the K storm crowd will be devastated.

I guess it's not a shrimp storm... tis a phish storm.



I got a brand new pair of roller skates, You got a brand new key.



You're wasted on here.
1709. FLdewey
Quoting yonzabam:



You're wasted on here.


How dare you sir... I never drink before 9 on a Sunday.
I really hope that L98 can get its act together and can come up through GA, its been so dry here and all my grass is brown.
he pulls the orange card on 98! go usa
1713. scott39
It looks like 98L has really slowed down in the last 6 to 8 hours.
what time exactly will the hurricane hunter be leaving?
Wave at 60 W, 13 N is the one to watch. This will be the next storm.
Quoting bajelayman2:
Wave at 60 W, 13 N is the one to watch. This will be the next storm.


There's rotation, but everyone seems to be ignoring it. I guess lots like it just fizzle out.
Quoting bajelayman2:
Wave at 60 W, 13 N is the one to watch. This will be the next storm.


i am currently in the path of it i am located in the island of Grenada and winds and rain have increased alot i notice that the actual center of heat energy is located just west of me and notice the structure of deep moisture wit it!
1718. scott39
I think 98L will make it to at least a TD maybe even a TS. Conditions are somewhat favorable with becoming more favorable. Why wouldnt it?
Quoting scott39:
I think 98L will make it to at least a TD maybe even a TS. Conditions are somewhat favorable with becoming more favorable. Why wouldnt it?

If it gets into the GOM as a TD i think it will become our first hurricane
Still at 20 knots and a very non-low 1010 mb:

AL, 98, 2011071712, , BEST, 0, 282N, 788W, 20, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
1721. IKE

1722. IKE
I've had almost 4 inches of rain in the last 24 hours. Looks like it's finally drying out some now.
1723. scott39
Quoting Neapolitan:
Still at 20 knots and a very non-low 1010 mb:

AL, 98, 2011071712, , BEST, 0, 282N, 788W, 20, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Has it dropped 4 mb?
1724. FLdewey
Despite the pretty lines, most of our TV mets are thinking this thing is heading out to sea and taking our moisture with it.



Need plans for a tractor beam.
Quoting bajelayman2:
Wave at 60 W, 13 N is the one to watch. This will be the next storm.

Looks like it is right over you now? Did Barbados get much rain last night?
Quoting scott39:
Has it dropped 4 mb?

Nah, just one. Here's the entire history file:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107171220
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011071618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982011
AL, 98, 2011071518, , BEST, 0, 313N, 804W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071600, , BEST, 0, 310N, 800W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071606, , BEST, 0, 307N, 797W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071612, , BEST, 0, 304N, 794W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071618, , BEST, 0, 298N, 791W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 98, 2011071700, , BEST, 0, 293N, 789W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 98, 2011071706, , BEST, 0, 287N, 788W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071712, , BEST, 0, 282N, 788W, 20, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Quoting islander101010:
he pulls the orange card on 98! go usa

would of preferred another yellow, cause that's a straight red. Go USA
1728. BDAwx
1729. scott39
Quoting IKE:
I've had almost 4 inches of rain in the last 24 hours. Looks like it's finally drying out some now.
Buckets of rain here too. Im glad I got the grass cut before it came, I think its grown another 3 inches in 3 days!!
1730. scott39
Quoting Neapolitan:

Nah, just one. Here's the entire history file:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107171220
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011071618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982011
AL, 98, 2011071518, , BEST, 0, 313N, 804W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071600, , BEST, 0, 310N, 800W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071606, , BEST, 0, 307N, 797W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071612, , BEST, 0, 304N, 794W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071618, , BEST, 0, 298N, 791W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 98, 2011071700, , BEST, 0, 293N, 789W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 98, 2011071706, , BEST, 0, 287N, 788W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071712, , BEST, 0, 282N, 788W, 20, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
What time is the next update? TIA
1731. FLdewey
A Comma delimited atmosphere...

1732. Dakster
Hopefully some areas that need the rain get it. I am not wishing for a hurricane to hit, but if it could drift over Central Florida and across the GOM to texas it would be nice.
1733. Dakster
Dewey the pretty lines changed... I guess the mets like the GFS now?
Quoting superpete:

Looks like it is right over you now? Did Barbados get much rain last night?


Yes, sporadic but heavy at times during the night. Not rained this am where I am but cloudy and darkish for 8:45am. My wife did see a really pretty lighting once too, said it had the whole sky lit up purple for an extended flash.

I dont have a gauge, but barometric pressure must be down, feel it close.

From what I see here, I doubt this will just break up easily. Coupled with what I see on satellite, I think this is to watch, even if the guys are saying it is entering TUTT etc and will not develop.
1736. scott39
Modules are split.
What are 98L's steering currents? It seems that the models were previously split, but now they send it north into Florida/Georgia
Quoting AussieStorm:

would of preferred another yellow, cause that's a straight red. Go USA
you know those japanese girls are going to be coming out strong going to be a battle but still its just a game. keeping an eye out on the windwd system anyones got a rain gauge?
Quoting scott39:
What time is the next update? TIA

ATCF nominally updates every six hours--0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC (except when things are really cranking), but they actually come in a largish window from about 1:20 to 3:00 ET, and 7:20 to 9:00 ET (both AM and PM).
Quoting SETexas74:
What are 98L's steering currents? It seems that the models were previously split, but now they send it north into Florida/Georgia
1016mb is the steering current.
1743. IKE

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Most likely headed out to sea.
1744. FLdewey
I think they read it on 98L's facebook page Dak.
Quoting IKE:

Most likely headed out to sea.
if it were sept i'd say sure
1746. scott39
Is there a H blocking 98L from going N right now?
Quoting bajelayman2:


Yes, sporadic but heavy at times during the night. Not rained this am where I am but cloudy and darkish for 8:45am. My wife did see a really pretty lighting once too, said it had the whole sky lit up purple for an extended flash.

I dont have a gauge, but barometric pressure must be down, feel it close.

From what I see here, I doubt this will just break up easily. Coupled with what I see on satellite, I think this is to watch, even if the guys are saying it is entering TUTT etc and will not develop.
It seems to have held together very well since yesterday and convection has increased and deepened over the past few hours.
Morning All.

1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 17/1615Z
D. 29.2N 78.6W
E. 17/1815Z TO 17/2345Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Recon takes off @ 12:15EST. 98L looking a little spry this morning however, looking at the models, 98L may just be viewed from a distance. Should enhance rain chances for the peninsula.

Steering



Steering currents very weak, hence the squashed spider look from the models.

Ah well, there goes the beach today, could still go, but not as much fun fully overcast and bleak. That's what I get for mowing the lawn yesterday.

Thanks for the image sunline, looks like we have two days of overcast/ rain.

Still, we cannot complain with so many suffering from drought/ heat.
1750. FLdewey
Bright and Sunny in Indialantic this morning... not sure for how long.
1751. ncstorm
The HWRF takes it almost in SC/NC but then takes it out to sea

1752. ncstorm
The GFDL actually takes it into NC

Quoting FLdewey:
Bright and Sunny in Indialantic this morning... not sure for how long.



Ayyyy, Jupiter as well, nearly perfect...


Quoting FLdewey:
Bright and Sunny in Indialantic this morning... not sure for how long.


I didn't realize that's where you were....it's one of my favorite places...
I dissagree with the models, trends show this moving inland between Central Florida to South Carolina. I don't think this will sweep out to sea as everyone thinks.
1756. guygee
I see a mid/upper-level shortwave forming off the SE coast south of the Carolinas. Like most everything else this summer it will rotate SW and then W around the continental high. I think it will nudge our Bahamas blob a little further SE where it will fester for awhile. Slow development, little movement in the immediate future.
1757. scott39
Quoting FLdewey:
Bright and Sunny in Indialantic this morning... not sure for how long.
How far are you from the Sebastian Inlet? Great fishing and a great place for kids to swim.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Irene was the lonely only, barely.



I remember Irene, it was originally forecasted to brush or make landfall in VA. I remember sitting on the edge for a few days until the track shifted east.
Quoting reedzone:
I dissagree with the models, trends show this moving inland between Central Florida to South Carolina. I don't think this will sweep out to sea as everyone thinks.
I say it skirts the outer banks.
Quoting scott39:
Is there a H blocking 98L from going N right now?


Would seem so.

SW N ATLC...
THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF
THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 25N...WHILE A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALONG 28N W OF 65W...AND TO A
1015 MB LOW E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28.5N79W MOVING SLOWLY S.
THE FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
HIGH PRES IS PRESENT TO THE N OF THE LOW AND FRONT.

AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LOSE
ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT PUSHES BACK TO THE N.
THE RIDGE WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD THROUGH THU. THE LOW IS FORECAST
BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO MOVE S THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN
TO TRACK MORE TO THE W AND NW MON AND MON NIGHT AND TURN NE TUE
BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY OVER THE FAR NW PORTION. THE
HURRICANE BAM MODELS TAKE THE LOW MORE TO THE SW AND W TOWARDS
CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. WILL FORECAST LOW TO
APPROACH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...THEN CARRY A TROUGH FEATURE EXTENDING TO PART OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATER TUE INTO WED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS FEATURE
TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STAY
TUNED FOR ANY POSSIBLE NEW INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.
Quoting WxLogic:
In regards models... here is what they have so far on 98L:



East coast rider, and given that it's in the gulf stream that may help it intensify a little more rapidly.
Quoting reedzone:
I dissagree with the models, trends show this moving inland between Central Florida to South Carolina. I don't think this will sweep out to sea as everyone thinks.

I'm waiting for the steering currents to pick it up, once that happens then we'll know where it's going.
The NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecasts Shows the 1016mb steering current nicely.
1763. aquak9
Quoting FLdewey:
Bright and Sunny in Indialantic this morning... not sure for how long.


Good morning from Jax, Fl. Bright blue to the west, scattered high strips of bacon clouds to the east, a little darker to the south. (waves goodbye to any rain chances)

The only way this could been more heartbreaking woulda been if this happened offa the TX coast.
1764. FLdewey
Quoting reedzone:
I dissagree with the models


Do tell.
1765. FLdewey
Quoting presslord:


I didn't realize that's where you were....it's one of my favorite places...


Shut the front door... most people have never heard of us.

@scott39 about 30 minutes North of the inlet... great place to fish (outside of Snook season of course) :-|
1766. scott39
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Would seem so.

SW N ATLC...
THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF
THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 25N...WHILE A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALONG 28N W OF 65W...AND TO A
1015 MB LOW E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28.5N79W MOVING SLOWLY S.
THE FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
HIGH PRES IS PRESENT TO THE N OF THE LOW AND FRONT.

AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LOSE
ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT PUSHES BACK TO THE N.
THE RIDGE WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD THROUGH THU. THE LOW IS FORECAST
BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO MOVE S THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN
TO TRACK MORE TO THE W AND NW MON AND MON NIGHT AND TURN NE TUE
BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY OVER THE FAR NW PORTION. THE
HURRICANE BAM MODELS TAKE THE LOW MORE TO THE SW AND W TOWARDS
CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. WILL FORECAST LOW TO
APPROACH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...THEN CARRY A TROUGH FEATURE EXTENDING TO PART OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATER TUE INTO WED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS FEATURE
TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STAY
TUNED FOR ANY POSSIBLE NEW INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.
That doesnt sound like a fish to me.
Quoting reedzone:
I dissagree with the models, trends show this moving inland between Central Florida to South Carolina. I don't think this will sweep out to sea as everyone thinks.



after your last performance, I'm paying attention to you...and I'm thrilled to see you referenced South Carolina....
there been alot of cyclones that made landfall in e cen fl. sebastion area seems to be a magnet for them
1770. snotly
Anyone got one of those IR thermometers?

Interesting article.

Link

I was always wondering what temp it was measuring if pointed at a clear sky.
1771. IKE

Quoting FLdewey:


Do tell.
lol.
Quoting scott39:
That doesnt sound like a fish to me.


Me either. Guess we'll see.

1773. aquak9
Navarre- ever consider a Stratus instead of a trashcan? sigh...I am jealous of your rain.
1774. ncstorm
this storm might just become very interesting according to the surface map for HPC..

Monday, they see two lows



Tuesday- two lows

Quoting aquak9:


Good morning from Jax, Fl. Bright blue to the west, scattered high strips of bacon clouds to the east, a little darker to the south. (waves goodbye to any rain chances)

The only way this could been more heartbreaking woulda been if this happened offa the TX coast.


Morning Aqua. If it was sitting off our coast it would die of thirst.
Looks like we may get another sprinle or two here in St. Aug. We have had some rain but not near enough.
Afternoon all! 98L is becoming better organized but its feeling the effects of 20 knots of marginal Northwesterly shear.
1778. hulakai
buoys around 98l suggest a closed low. water plenty warm. shear does not present at the moment. looking better to me right now. wax down the board
1780. scott39
Quoting FLdewey:


Shut the front door... most people have never heard of us.

@scott39 about 30 minutes North of the inlet... great place to fish (outside of Snook season of course) :-|
Do you live in Melbourne or Palm Bay? Melbourne is my home town as a boy.
1781. FLdewey
So it should come a little closer... wave... and then book it out towards the NE.



Ship it!
1782. FLdewey
Quoting scott39:
Do you live in Melbourne or Palm Bay? Melbourne is my home town as a boy.


I'm across the bridge in Indialantic... work in Melbourne.
1783. geepy86
I still say the blue line.
1784. aquak9
hi AtHome, believe me, I feel ya'lls pain. Would even be willing to give ya'll first dibs on a good soaker.

Dewey- that model looks like my hair.
1785. scott39
It looks like its all about the timing of the cold front and how far W 98L makes it.
morning presslord, everyone....looks like we are in for a little bit of excitement over the next few days....don't think it will get very big or bad but it could possibly set where storms are going to trend since it is rumored that the jet stream shifted a bit for this season
Quoting aquak9:
hi AtHome, believe me, I feel ya'lls pain. Would even be willing to give ya'll first dibs on a good soaker.

Dewey- that model looks like my hair.


Thanks I hope you get some rain too. And we may be related. Lol.
Quoting FLdewey:


I'm across the bridge in Indialantic... work in Melbourne.


I've got family there, and up north in Titusville. Was down there last Friday for the last shuttle launch.
1789. scott39
It looks like the coc is trying to get under the convection, but there is still some shear from the NW flattening it out a little. The farther S it goes, the more organized it will become.
1790. FLdewey
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I've got family there, and up north in Titusville. Was down there last Friday for the last shuttle launch.


Traffic was nice eh?

I've also got family in Titusville who work, or worked, at NASA.

It'll be interesting to see what happens to Brevard post Shuttle era.
Quoting reedzone:
I dissagree with the models, trends show this moving inland between Central Florida to South Carolina. I don't think this will sweep out to sea as everyone thinks.


thanks reedzone...lol...sitting here in Charleston (same as Presslord)...these storms always drive me crazy...work at a preschool that is open all year long, lots of our parents don't like/understand when we have to close due to weather...
Quoting FLdewey:


Traffic was nice eh?

I've also got family in Titusville who work, or worked, at NASA.

It'll be interesting to see what happens to Brevard post Shuttle era.


It was, as for this launch I had the pleasure to watch it from a boat a lot closer than I've ever been to a shuttle launch - when it comes to launches I found out on the very last one it is much, much better to go on boat than on foot/car. Yea, I'll be watching closely to what happens to Brevard next 5 years or so. I also used to have family who worked on the shuttle.
Quoting tiggeriffic:


thanks reedzone...lol...sitting here in Charleston (same as Presslord)...these storms always drive me crazy...work at a preschool that is open all year long, lots of our parents don't like/understand when we have to close due to weather...


been keepin' up with y'all through that bald guy at our parish
1794. FLdewey
Sheared like a sheep...

Buoy 41010, nearish 98L has a pressure of 1016mb, though pressure probably a little lower at the centre, maybe 1014-1015 mb.
Quoting presslord:


been keepin' up with y'all through that bald guy at our parish


yeah...been busy getting ready for VBS...starts tomorrow...built a HUGE firetruck for our theme... bigger than last time lol...this one is about 7.5' high, 6.5' wide and comes out from the wall over 80" ...and since you saw the last one i did for little man, you know this one has even MORE detail lol
1797. ncstorm
crownweather:

I am pretty much throwing out all of the regional and global model guidance, including the NAM, GFS, Canadian and European models as they are not doing a good job at all in depicting this low pressure system. Instead, I%u2019m going more towards the GFDL and HWRF models, as well as the consensus hurricane track models like the TVCC and TVCN models. So, my suspicion is that we will see Invest 98-L move slowly to the south today through much of Monday before stalling later Monday and turning back to the north-northeast on Tuesday and then track northeastward on Wednesday.

As for development/intensification: I think we will see deeper convection fire tonight as Invest 98-L will be tracking over the waters of the Gulf Stream current and in fact it would not surprise me to see this classified as a tropical depression late tonight or during the day Monday, especially how the overall structure continues to improve this morning. Strengthening into a 45 to 50 mph tropical storm is quite possible on Tuesday as this system tracks north-northeastward just off of the coast of northeast Florida. The GFDL and the HWRF models indicate that this system will ultimately track inland into southeastern North Carolina as a 45 to 50 mph tropical storm on Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. The consensus guidance is forecasting that this system will remain offshore of the coast of North Carolina by later Thursday and Friday.

I do think that Invest 98-L will become our next depression and very likely our next named storm, Bret. I do not anticipate that it will get much stronger than a 40 or 50 mph tropical storm as it tracks northeastward into eastern North Carolina or just offshore of the North Carolina coast by Thursday. It should be noted that a reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon. Should this flight find that Invest 98-L is a tropical depression, I will post an update with this relevant information.
1798. emcf30
ok..time to get ready for church...check back in later...
1800. aquak9
Sheared like a sheep...
That was BAA-AAa-aaah-d....
1801. snotly
to me it seems like 98l will drift sw inland over southern Fla dissipate somewhat and then back into the gulf.
Impressive MCS over the Bay of Campeche last night a la 97L...



Link


With the large ridge stuck over CONUS for the foreseeable future, an repeat of Arlene is probably in the cards.
prog:just about to point that out that areas been a magnet the last 2yrs for tc's,i believe it was a "pop-up TD",lol
Quoting snotly:
to me it seems like 98l will drift sw inland over southern Fla dissipate somewhat and then back into the gulf.


imo, this isn't very likely to do that.
1806. aquak9
hi Ike, just what we need is some cloven-hooved cuties wandering thru the blog.

Grab some pom-poms and a skirt and cheer this thing on for some rain for me, wouldja?
Quoting stillwaiting:
prog:just about to point that out that areas been a magnet the last 2yrs for tc's,i believe it was a "pop-up TD",lol


it did look close to getting organized for sure..
1808. scott39
Shear from the NW and D-min is going to take its toll on 98L today. Look for a show late tonight.
Is the 'blob' off Central Florida a 'cut off low'?
little shear north of invest 98L and much less south of invest 98L
1812. ackee
where will 98L go

A CENTRAL FL
B GULF
C OUT TO SEA
D NORTH or South CALORINA
1813. scott39
Quoting aquak9:
hi Ike, just what we need is some cloven-hooved cuties wandering thru the blog.

Grab some pom-poms and a skirt and cheer this thing on for some rain for me, wouldja?
Get a really big cast net and bring it in to you.
1814. scott39
Quoting ackee:
where will 98L go

A CENTRAL FL
B GULF
C OUT TO SEA
D NORTH or South CALORINA
A
Quoting ackee:
where will 98L go

A CENTRAL FL
B GULF
C OUT TO SEA
D NORTH or South CALORINA
D
1817. aquak9
Quoting scott39:
Get a really big cast net and bring it in to you.

I can throw a 6-footer, scott, but I just don't think it's gonna do the trick.
If dmin was taking a toll on 98L then its apparence would be much worse than this...think again.
Quoting leofarnsworth:
Is the 'blob' off Central Florida a 'cut off low'?


Correct.
1820. scott39
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
If dmin was taking a toll on 98L then its apparence would be much worse than this...think again.
Watch it as the day goes by. More developement wont be until late tonight or Monday.
for post 1812...I say E.South FL to JFV'S House
98l and its convection clearly visible on radar. If the storm can rough it out through the shear and wrap it all up a little better we might have a contender for "bret".
Quoting leofarnsworth:
Is the 'blob' off Central Florida a 'cut off low'?


No, as it wasn't a non tropical system to begin with. Here's the hi-res HWRF cyclone phase diagram.

Link

Cut-offs are symmetric cold-core.
As of this posting, recon is still on into 98L.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
As of this posting, recon is still on into 98L.


When does it go?
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


When does it go?


12:15 pm
1827. ncstorm
Quoting weatherguy03:
Invest 98L Update


Thanks for the update!
Quoting ackee:
where will 98L go

A CENTRAL FL
B GULF
C OUT TO SEA
D NORTH or South CALORINA
Now I have another one to rib presslord with- the "Calorinas".
Quoting ackee:
where will 98L go

A CENTRAL FL
B GULF
C OUT TO SEA
D NORTH or South CALORINA


Ok if and I did say "IF" 98L keeps drifting S, to SSW today and the High builds in to the North where the old Frontal Boundry was, I would say "A" then to "B".

But then It could split the 2 high's the one in the Gulf and the one to the North which would bring 98L into North East FL and GA....

Just from what I'm seeing right now.
Although later today and tonight maybe a different story.... Just need to see how this plays out....

Taco :o)
.
Quoting ackee:
where will 98L go

A CENTRAL FL
B GULF
C OUT TO SEA
D NORTH or South CALORINA


Whats a Calorina?
Quoting CybrTeddy:



good AM 98L your looking good this AM and it looks like it got in biger overe night
1834. ncstorm
As much as I welcome 98L to our area because of the wildfires, if we happen to lose power from a tropical storm, we are going to catch it here in eastern NC..it supposed to be in the 90's come tuesday through the end of the week..
Quoting ackee:
where will 98L go

A CENTRAL FL
B GULF
C OUT TO SEA
D NORTH or South CALORINA

E MOVES SOUTH TO CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN
F JUST SITS THERE DEVELOPS THEN WEAKEN AND DIE

you forgot those two
I will pick E & D maybe C
Winds are still pretty light at the offshore buoys near 98L- Only in the 10-17 kt range. In fact they are higher farther north in the GA/SC area due to the pressure gradient.
1837. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
hi Ike, just what we need is some cloven-hooved cuties wandering thru the blog.

Grab some pom-poms and a skirt and cheer this thing on for some rain for me, wouldja?
Well....that post got deleted quickly.
1838. IKE

Quoting ackee:
where will 98L go

A CENTRAL FL
B GULF
C OUT TO SEA
D NORTH or South CALORINA
C.
Good Update Bob(WG03), Thanks for your input..


98L gets and upgrade at 2pm I think. 60-70% Red IMO

1841. aquak9
where does recon take off from? curious if I will see them over where I live, as I have sometimes before.
Look's like Ma-on is finally getting rid of the dry air.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Correct.


Isn't this the second time this season, models missed a 'cut off low'? The first being that low that came across the midwest, entered the Atlantic, dove straight down the Atlantic coast and almost formed before coming into Florida about say a month ago.
1844. Patrap
Biloxi,Miss for TEAL Flights
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Good Update Bob(WG03), Thanks for your input..


98L gets and upgrade at 2pm I think. 60-70% Red IMO



Recon will tell that story..
1846. aquak9
wow ike, you're not kidding. Guess they're enforcing the Rules today. Take that as a slap on the back of the hand.

don't guess I'll be posting Recoon today, either.
1847. aquak9
thanks, pat. Hmmm..50/50 on the chances of me seeing it.
1848. Patrap
One can use the Google tracker after wheels up for the Teal flight sched,,
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY AND SOUTHERN SANTA ROSA COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEST PENSACOLA...WARRINGTON...
MYRTLE GROVE...GOULDING...GONZALEZ...FERRY PASS...ENSLEY...
BRENT...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE AND BAGDAD...

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT 800 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
RAIN FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WHITING
FIELD...WALLACE...SPRINGHILL...SKYLINE...ROEVILLE. ..POINT BAKER...
EAST MILTON...MUNSON...HAROLD...CHUMUCKLA AND ALLENTOWN

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA HAVE RECEIVED 4 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA THROUGH NOON. THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN RAPID FLASH FLOODING OF FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
Like Japan really needs this. It's been a tough few months.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Look's like Ma-on is finally getting rid of the dry air.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
EASTERN GULF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1215 PM EDT/1115 AM CDT/

* AT 918 AM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETECTED VERY
HEAVY RAIN FROM A SMALL GROUP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND AROUND APALACHICOLA...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THESE
STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH
RADAR AND GAGE ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHER PER HOUR. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 8 INCHES IN SOME AREAS.
Well looks like we will get more rain today from that Low Pressure on the north Gulf Coast....



Taco :o)Link
1853. IKE

Quoting weatherguy03:
Invest 98L Update
"Not moving across Florida and into the GOM"........fine with me. Next.
Good Morning. In scanning the comments am I correct that the models are all over the place at the moment as to where 98L might go?........Tough forecast on this one on both sides (cyclogenisis-track) given that we don't have a storm yet and models don't do well initializing tracks until you have a better idea of intensity potential and location of a COC....It's still a wait and see.
1855. scott39
Quoting taco2me61:
Well looks like we will get more rain today from that Low Pressure on the north Gulf Coast....



Taco :o)
No more Taco...please!!:)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. In scanning the comments am I correct that the models are all over the place at the moment as to where 98L might go?........Tough forecast on this one on both sides (cyclogenisis-track) given that we don't have a storm yet and models don't do well initializing tracks until you have a better idea of intensity potential and location of a COC....It's still a wait and see.


here ya go:



Quoting billybadbird:
hi Dr. Masters - it's that time of year - i sure do love and thank you for everything you did before and after IKE - YOU ROCK COOL ASS WEATHERMAN BOOTS



reported watch what you say plzs
1859. aquak9
billybadbird!!!

♥♥!!!
Quoting scott39:
No more Taco...please!!:)


Sorry but we need more Rain due to the fact that we here in Mobile are still about 18" below normal....

Taco :o)
Radar might not be as pretty, but overall I think 98L is doing better. It's gonna break away to day, the front is breaking.
1862. aquak9
Taz- NO! BillyBadBird lived on the tip of the Bolivar Peninsula. he stayed and LIVED thru Ike! Do you not remember? He ended up in the church with the lion.

We set him up with a tent, and Beell and Rainman32 and many others helped- Esp Vortfix, aka Randrewl.

BillyBadBird is like a LEGEND, Taz.
12Z NAM still doesn't initialize 98L very well. Hopefully when recon gets some data they can feed it in there.
1864. scott39
Quoting MrstormX:
Radar might not be as pretty, but overall I think 98L is doing better.
Better where?
1865. Dakster
People thinking a 2pm red alert then?

maybe with some better data to feed into the models we will get a better idea of potential strength and more importantly DIRECTION for 98L.
Quoting IKE:

"Not moving across Florida and into the GOM"........fine with me. Next.


It still does have the chance of becoming a TD, and some models do have it moving across the state and into the Gulf.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


here ya go:





Thanks.......All we can do is wait for now although I would be a little nervous if I was in Florida/Bahamas with an organizing blob right next to the Gulf Stream just off the coast....
1868. Dakster
Water dog - If you want the storm that bad, just paint your house and wash your car... Works every time...
Quoting scott39:
Better where?


For starters it is now on the tail end of the front, shear is relaxing. Soon it will be able to survive on it's own.
1871. scott39
The big question for me is ....how far W will 98L go before turning back to the N? I guess central Fl.
Quoting Dakster:
People thinking a 2pm red alert then?

maybe with some better data to feed into the models we will get a better idea of potential strength and more importantly DIRECTION for 98L.


I agree Dakster, we all will know more after 2pm....


Thanks Taco :o)
What time is the first recon?
1874. ackee
Looks like the centre is trying to relocate under the convection small system like these tends to devlop rather quick
1875. Patrap
One the NHC page, left side,,under RECON
1876. scott39
Quoting MrstormX:


For starters it is now on the tail end of the front, shear is relaxing. Soon it will be able to survive on it's own.
How far W do you think it will get?
1877. aquak9
Dak..I'm not a thrill seeker, not really want a "storm"...it's too much work. Just want rains to make N Fla healthy again, to help the river, feed the ponds, etc. It's hard-wired into me, the desire for rain. Can't help it.
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:

That is looking nice, and obs or cams in Bahamas?
1879. txjac
Quoting scott39:
How far W do you think it will get?



I'm hopng that it will get as west as Texas coast ....
1880. Dakster
I hear you AQUAK9, I always get rain if I paint the house or wash and wax the car.
1881. scott39
Quoting txjac:



I'm hopng that it will get as west as Texas coast ....
I think thats a long shot...but you never know with these critters!
Quoting scott39:
How far W do you think it will get?


Short term I don't think it will move much, it is probably just going to drift around. Once it is completely free of the stationary front I would say a general WNW direction can be expected before it enter the NE GOM.
I bet the HH find a TD when they go out,the high def vis loop presentation looks to good over the last 6hrs,w/banding begining on 98l's north and ne side
I'll go ahead and say it. 98L looks very close to TD status. NHC will likely wait for Recon later to upgrade. What's everyone else think?
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/98L
MARK
27.55N/77.77W
I see a big wall north of 98L so a S, W or E directions are more reliable.
1887. scott39
Quoting MrstormX:


Short term I don't think it will move much, it is probably just going to drift around. Once it is completely free of the stationary front I would say a general WNW direction can be expected before it enter the NE GOM.
When is the cold front forecasted to come in for the swoop?
30kts reported up in the NE quad.

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
30kts reported up in the NE quad.



If I am not mistaken, those obs. seem to support some kind of circulation.
12Z maps are out oh and the low is completely disconected from the front so yes we may have a TD now really that is all it needed that disconection with the front









Quoting AllStar17:


If I am not mistaken, those obs. seem to support some kind of circulation.


Yes indeed, a few more west wind reports than last night
Quoting AussieStorm:

That is looking nice, and obs or cams in Bahamas?


http://www.rockybay.com/

elbow cay. SSW wind
Quoting scott39:
When is the cold front forecasted to come in for the swoop?


Maybe after this? Link

THE RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES OFF THE
MID-ATLC COAST THAT BEGINS TO BUILD SW ACROSS N FLORIDA AND INTO
THE NE GULF THROUGH...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
AS A TROUGH E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DRIFTS WESTWARD.
Welp my family have made a last second dission to go off to the panhandle for a vaction for a week! Lets see if L98 will effect us...
1895. Dakster
KOTG - Is that you adding POSS T.C.F.A.?
1896. scott39
If a cold front comes down this far in July and kicks 98L out to sea, does this show what the pattern is going to be like in Aug and Sept??
Quoting IceCoast:
I'll go ahead and say it. 98L looks very close to TD status. NHC will likely wait for Recon later to upgrade. What's everyone else think?


I think it's a bit away from being a TD yet, though the fact that recon is still going this afternoon, unless we get a late cancellation, suggests that the NHC think it might not be too long until we get a cyclone from it.
Offshore Waters Forecast

Excerpt:

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N79W. THE LOW WILL MOVE S
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION MON
THROUGH TUE POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
WED. THE LOW COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
1899. Dakster
scott39 - I would say it is too early to tell what pattern will setup - I am assuming you are talking about where the A-B High will be for the peak time of the season.
Going to get up close and personal with the FL east coast IMO.

1901. scott39
Quoting Dakster:
scott39 - I would say it is too early to tell what pattern will setup - I am assuming you are talking about where the A-B High will be for the peak time of the season.
Yes I am
Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
17/1145 UTC 28.1N 79.3W T1.0/1.0 98L
17/0545 UTC 28.8N 78.6W TOO WEAK 98L
14/0545 UTC 20.5N 97.5W OVERLAND 97L
Quoting Dakster:
KOTG - Is that you adding POSS T.C.F.A.?
YES but so has offshore forecast and now nhc graphic so yep looks like a go for a poss T.C.F.A.
1905. scott39
Quoting Dakster:
scott39 - I would say it is too early to tell what pattern will setup - I am assuming you are talking about where the A-B High will be for the peak time of the season.
And the early sign of a deep cold front in July. If I understand correctly about what is going to kick 98L N and then NE.
NEW BLOG
1907. 10Speed
You can safely call 98L a TD folks and it's probably going to either become a benefit or a big problem, depending how you look at it.
1908. Dakster
Last visible on the floater for 98L looks like the clouds are wrapping around - I'd say the look of a TD forming.

Quoting Dakster:
Last visible on the floater for 98L looks like the clouds are wrapping around - I'd say the look of a TD forming.



pressures do not look like they are falling though
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Offshore Waters Forecast

Excerpt:

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N79W. THE LOW WILL MOVE S
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION MON
THROUGH TUE POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
WED. THE LOW COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.


there is couple of thing I have to argue about

ok

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N79W. THE LOW WILL MOVE S THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION MON THROUGH TUE POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA WED. THE LOW COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE

look at words in bold more so in italic ok
#1 its now 10:14 am my time 98L is already past the Northern Fl mark and is currently passing the Central Fl mark they say that S movement will continue tonight well if this happens at the speed I see it at it may even pass the Fl Keys Mark and just maybe the the Northern Cuba mark before MON/TUE when it does its westerly track
1911. Dakster
Quoting Hurricanes101:


pressures do not look like they are falling though


Getting itself together has to take place before pressures will fall... I guess that is why they HH is sent out. To take a better visual look and to take a lot of detailed measurements.

Morning everybody. Hope you are enjoying your Sunday.

We got some decent rain from our current AOI yesterday. Much of the central part of New Providence was flooded due to locally heavy showers. I had a few laughs because it was obvious many drivers had forgotten how to respond to the localized flooding... And now the humidity feels more like its normal stifling self.... lol

Other feature that caught my eye this a.m. is the latest wave exiting Africa... looks like it's holding up, with some sort of associated low attached... Wouldn't that move into the WAtl some time in the next 5 days?

I'm also very interested - and concerned - to observe that Twaves moving across the basin seem to be up between 10N and 20N already, and the 1016 isobar is running along 15N as it approached the CAR.... that is a fairly fast lift in the last 10 days or so... and where do you get a 1036 high from???

Looks like some pple's implication that this may be a season of increased landfalls may be more than doomsaying.....