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Globe has 3rd or 8th warmest October on record; year-to-date period warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:20 PM GMT on November 19, 2010

October 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest October on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated October 2010 the third warmest October on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - October, as the warmest such period on record. October 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 7th or 2nd warmest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. UAH rated the year-to-date period, January-October, as the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data record, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from October 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Eleventh warmest October on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 11th warmest October in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to October, was the 19th warmest such period on record. Two states had a top-ten warmest October on record--Wyoming and Montana. No states were colder than average.

U.S. precipitation
For the contiguous U.S., October 2010 was the 39th driest on record. Florida had its driest October in the 116-year record, and two other states had top-ten driest Octobers--Missouri and Texas. Nevada had its wettest October on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest October--New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and California.

La Niña in the "moderate" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 1.3°C below average during the first two weeks of November, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.23°C below average (as of November 14.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual during La Niña events. I'll have a full analysis of what La Niña might mean for the coming U.S. winter in a post next week.


Figure 2. Departure of surface temperature from average for the first half of November for the Arctic. Record low sea ice extent during this period has led to three "hot spots" with temperatures up to 12°C (22°F) above average where the sea ice loss was greatest. This unusual warmth is likely to have significant impacts on weather patterns across much of the Northern Hemisphere during the coming months. As I discussed in my post The climate is changing: the Arctic Dipole emerges last December, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This pattern typically brings exceptionally cold and snowy winters to eastern North America and Europe. The winter of 2009 - 2010 saw the most negative NAO since record keeping began in 1950, which resulted in an upside-down winter in North America--unprecedented snowstorms and the coldest winter in 25 years in the U.S., and the warmest winter on record in Canada. The unusual negative NAO conditions may have been due, in part, to the unusually high Arctic sea ice loss the previous summer (3rd greatest on record.) The latest GFS forecast predicts that the NAO will go strongly negative for the remainder of November, resulting in a major cold blast for the Eastern U.S. and Western Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

October 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent in October 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2009, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice extent as of today (November 19) is the lowest on record for this time of year, according to ice extent imagery at the University of Bremen. Ice volume in October was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update, Doc.
Thanks for the update :)
Complete Update

94L same system... different shower curtain.






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

P.S.

Nearly 1 in 5 Americans had mental illness in 2009

Take a look at your friends next time your out... if they look normal... do the math :)
j/k
16.1N 86.9N

Winds from the ENE at about 25kt with gusts close to 30kt.

I hope this keeps going to Yucatan.
GW blog...bye-bye tropical season. Have fun arguing.

Quoting utilaeastwind:
16.1N 86.9N

Winds from the ENE at about 25kt with gusts close to 30kt.

I hope this keeps going to Yucatan.


I hope it disipates... yesterday night Cancun´s city was totally flooded
Quoting utilaeastwind:
16.1N 86.9N

Winds from the ENE at about 25kt with gusts close to 30kt.

I hope this keeps going to Yucatan.
We had very gusty winds last night in Grand Cayman. Gusting to about 40 mph.
Quoting IKE:
GW blog...bye-bye tropical season. Have fun arguing.



Ergo the PS on post #3
..... and Jeff says no update until Monday :(
The NHC issued its TCR on Hurricane Otto this morning. A few changes: his official lifetime is six hours less than it previously was, he was a slightly stronger hurricane than before, and his overall ACE was lowered a bit, from 4.655 to 4.425. That last isn't a huge decrease, but it's enough to drop him from 9th place on the seasonal ACE list to 10th, meaning that he swapped places with Richard (for which the TCR has not been issued yet). Of particular note, the NHC restated that Otto caused the worst flooding in the history of the British Virgin Islands, though no casualties were reported.

Seasonal ACE is lowered to 159.5125...
10. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ergo the PS on post #3
..... and Jeff says no update until Monday :(


Good weekend to burn some limbs and leaves.

Forecast highs in the 70's this weekend for me and sunshine!

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Calm wind.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph.
More data we can use to prove unprecedented global warming!

"...Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - October, as the warmest such period on record..."

And, since the record uses the best placement of thermometers (and this is GLOBAL), and since TWO databases agree, this is undeniable proof that man is destroying the planet.

Take that, denialists.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

94L same system... different shower curtain.






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

P.S.

Nearly 1 in 5 Americans had mental illness in 2009

Take a look at your friends next time your out... if they look normal... do the math :)
j/k
nice post Orc.........................;0
Good lord.

I agree, time to back out and consider unpacking some supplies.

There still may be a freak storm, but not before Monday.

Later.
Quoting hypercapnia:
More data we can use to prove unprecedented global warming!

"...Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - October, as the warmest such period on record..."

And, since the record uses the best placement of thermometers (and this is GLOBAL), and since TWO databases agree, this is undeniable proof that man is destroying the planet.

Take that, denialists.
Yes...We will have the opposite of ice ball Earth...We instead will have desert Earth.......Notice the tiny lonely plant in the middle of that dune...
Quoting Dr. Jeff Masters:
Florida had its driest October in the 116-year record.

I'll say; here in Naples we received 0.64" for the month, in contrast to our average of 3.67". Not a good thing heading into fire season...
Quoting Dr. Jeff Masters:
The winter of 2009 - 2010 saw the most negative NAO since record keeping began in 1950, which resulted in an upside-down winter in North America--unprecedented snowstorms and the coldest winter in 25 years in the U.S., and the warmest winter on record in Canada. The unusual negative NAO conditions may have been due, in part, to the unusually high Arctic sea ice loss the previous summer (3rd greatest on record.) The latest GFS forecast predicts that the NAO will go strongly negative for the remainder of November, resulting in a major cold blast for the Eastern U.S. and Western Europe.

Yikes! Glad to be here at the southern tip of the country...
Quoting Dr. Jeff Masters:
Sea ice extent as of today (November 19) is the lowest on record for this time of year...Ice volume in October was the lowest on record.

It's more and more clear to those paying attention, isn't it? How anyone can look at the numerous and increasing signs and not realize what is going on is beyond me. Ah, well; for some with preconceived notions, I suppose even the overnight loss of all glacial and polar ice wouldn't be enough to convince them it was anything more than just the temporary and benign byproduct of some natural cycle.
Thanks Dr. Masters...

Hopefully the globe cools off this year from the La Nina.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters

Not looking good for dry season this year for us Floridians. Could be quite ugly come May-June when the rains kick in, if they kick in that is. The map below illustrates what this rainy season produced. (Click Map For Full Size)

Palm Beach, Martin & St. Lucie counties took the brunt with 9 to 10" below normal.
Panama City is about 15" below average, although we picked up an inch or so last week.
Quoting airforceone:
Panama City is about 15" below average, although we picked up an inch or so last week.
I have lived in Florida for decades..This is not the driest have seen it but it is rather close..The early 1970,s were the worst years....89-90 drought was particularly bad in S.W.Florida.
Fall best get a move on if it wants to live up to its reputation; over the past week, 299 record high temps have been set or tied in the United States, an average of roughly 42.7 per day. On the other hand, just 34 record lows--about 4.9 per day--have been set over the same span. I suppose the Arctic blast foreseen by the GFS for next week will put an end to that. If so, it's about time. In the meantime, this month should be very high on the list of warmest Novembers ever when the next NOAA climate report is released.
I'm not really sure that 94L should have ever been re-instated. Looks like the Season will hopefully wind down as one of the the more busy season but, one that created less harm for most. Gotta say the ConUs was somewhat spared this year....Maybe even a little lucky.
Quoting hydrus:
I have lived in Florida for decades..This is not the driest have seen it but it is rather close..The early 1970,s were the worst years....89-90 drought was particularly bad in S.W.Florida.


People forget years like 2000 and 2006 that were the driest I've seen. Actually I've seen 52" of rain this year here north of Orlando and OIA is about average for the year. 2010 has really not been that dry until the last 2 months.
Time to drain the generators and pull the lawn chairs from the pool.
Do you agree?

Seems like everything modern society touches, ends up polluted...
An example:
Before October 4, 1957, earth's upper atmosphere was clean.

All began with Sputnik 1, the first human-made object to orbit the Earth.
Actually, out of the estimated 600,000 objects[1] above 1 centimetre (0.39 in) diameter, only 19,000 can be tracked as of today. This leads to wide uncertainties in the estimated quantities of debris, and the predicted path of their orbits.

Imagine: Considering that only a few identities have the resources to contaminate space; what would happen if every country on earth incorporates a space/launching program????

Latest blog update concerning the Arctic air headed for the US and North Texas Link.
Quoting FLdewey:
Time to drain the generators and pull the lawn chairs from the pool.

Kinda amusing how the South does that during the fall, while the North does the same thing in the spring.
11. hypercapnia

Satellite temperatures say otherwise. I do find it interesting that we put up the satellites to study just this type of stuff with true global coverage. Yet, when the readings don't support the hypothesis, it is ignored. 1998 still hottest based on Sat temps.

That being said, 2010 still has a shot at beating 1998, but I doubt it.

I go with the global coverage over extrapolated readings from minimal station coverage. Is it even 1% coverage of the total planet?
Quoting jeffs713:

Kinda amusing how the South does that during the fall, while the North does the same thing in the spring.


LOL... never thought of it before. I guess the poor snow birds have to do it twice.
31. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST FRI NOV 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TO THE WEST OF THE BAY ISLANDS. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA LATER TODAY...AND DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND. THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE

"It's more and more clear to those paying attention, isn't it?"

The tripping point has been reached and from now on you have to be delusional to not realize we are in for some BIG changes..
Well, it's a balmy 44 F today. There was frost on the car when I drove my daughter to school. I've got a shirt and big sweater right now and I'm still freezing. Going down to 34 tonight, might get to 50 tomorrow. Down to 31 tomorrow night.

So buck up, you guys, with your highs in the 60's and 70's.
will it get cold in south fla
The extreme cold that the models were indicating next week seems to be easing some. It is becoming more and more clear just how warm FL will be this winter. I mean highs next week in Orlando are forecast to be in the mid 80's and only cooling down to the mid 70's next weekend. What Doc failed to mention is that during El-Nino years it is common for the SE US to get frequent Artic outbreaks this winter will be the opposite as cold air masses will only last a day or 2 and be replaced by warm conditions for extended periods. Bottomline the northern US and Canada are in for a very harsh winter while the south will be enjoying very warm wintertime temps for most of the winter to come.
Quoting eddye:
will it get cold in south fla


No not much maybe temps coming down to 75 in S FL next weekend for highs after being in the mid 80's all next week.
jeff 9641 and low in the mid 40
Quoting eddye:
jeff 9641 and low in the mid 40


yeap, 45 to 50 at night warming into the 70's during the day. Perfect if you ask me.
do u mean 45 degrees for west palm beach broward
i just hope when i go to universal the 18th i hope it will be a little cold and not hot
jeff 9641
Quoting WXTXN:
"It's more and more clear to those paying attention, isn't it?"

The tripping point has been reached and from now on you have to be delusional to not realize we are in for some BIG changes..


I am delusional still. Sorry.
Quoting eddye:
do u mean 45 degrees for west palm beach broward


SE FL will will be in the low 50's next weekend for low temps. Mid 40's inland and north.
TGIF

how about orlando fl will they get the 30 next weekend
Orlando International

Nov 19
Partly Cloudy
75
57


Sat
Nov 20
Partly Cloudy
80
58





Sun
Nov 21
Partly Cloudy
80
59




Mon
Nov 22
Partly Cloudy
81
58




Tue
Nov 23
Partly Cloudy
84
58





Wed
Nov 24
Partly Cloudy
84
59





Thu
Nov 25
Partly Cloudy
85
57





Fri
Nov 26
Few Showers
76
51



Sat
Nov 27
Mostly Sunny
73
46





Sun
Nov 28
Sunny
73
50




In case any of y'all are interested, here is my first article with the Evansville Examiner: link
Quoting tornadodude:
In case any of y'all are interested, here is my first article with the Evansville Examiner: link


Best wishes as a Evansville Weather Examiner.... TDude....
Quoting sunlinepr:


Best wishes as a Evansville Weather Examiner.... TDude....


Thanks!
Quoting Jeff9641:


SE FL will will be in the low 50's next weekend for low temps. Mid 40's inland and north.

thanksgiving day....20 people arre going dinner outside....
Quoting dolphingalrules:

thanksgiving day....20 people arre going dinner outside....


Highs in the 80's with a chance of a shower other than that great weather to be outside to eat Turkey and drink many cocktails. Enjoy!
Come Turkey day maybe a recovery day for me after long hard partying next Wednesday Night.
Quoting eddye:
how about orlando fl will they get the 30 next weekend


That's global warming for you.
AMEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!APOCALYPSE-INDUCED MISANTHROPIC ENVIRONMENTAL NERVOUSNESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Okay just wanna say that the predictions for next hurricane season comes out in about 2-3 weeks,and I predict that the numbers will look something like this 15-17 storms.Faverable conditions will last into next hurricane season.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Okay just wanna say that the predictions for next hurricane season comes out in about 2-3 weeks,and I predict that the numbers will look something like this 15-17 storms.Faverable conditions will last into next hurricane season.
it will be another 18 to 20 with 12 to 14 becoming canes
Quoting TampaSpin:
I'm not really sure that 94L should have ever been re-instated. Looks like the Season will hopefully wind down as one of the the more busy season but, one that created less harm for most. Gotta say the ConUs was somewhat spared this year....Maybe even a little lucky.
I don't think we'll be lucky next year.
Quoting help4u:
AMEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!APOCALYPSE-INDUCED MISANTHROPIC ENVIRONMENTAL NERVOUSNESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
there really is no help4u
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't think we'll be lucky next year.


All it takes is one system for a year to be considered disastrous, whether here in the U.S. or anywhere around the world
Quoting tornadodude:


All it takes is one system for a year to be considered disastrous, whether here in the U.S. or anywhere around the world
Their's a comment of mine on another blog where I explain why I think the U.S will see multiply hits next hurricane season.The kids are driving me nuts right now so I can't think clearly.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there really is no help4u
Nice one.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Their's a comment of mine on another blog where I explain why I think the U.S will see multiply hits next hurricane season.The kids are driving me nuts right now so I can't think clearly. Nice one.


I'll have to check it out when I get home from work,


have a good afternoon/evening everyone!
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters

Not looking good for dry season this year for us Floridians. Could be quite ugly come May-June when the rains kick in, if they kick in that is. The map below illustrates what this rainy season produced. (Click Map For Full Size)

What rainy season?
One very warm to even a hot week coming for C FL next week. Look at the link below. Temps in the mid to upper 60's for lows! WOW!! May temps in November can't beat that I will be hitting the beach later next week.

http://www.wesh.com/weather/hrstwx;byzip;32801/forecast.html?qs=;longname=Conditions%26Forecast;sho rtname=Forecast;days=n&ib_wxwidget=true#HEARSTWX=http%3A//www.wesh.com/weather/16656637/media.html%3 Fqs%3D%3Bref%3D/weather/18496077/media.html%3Blongname%3D7%2520Day
Quoting lightningbolt73:
What rainy season?


From January thru June this year I picked up 42" of rain here on the northside of orlando. Only 10" of rain though from July to 11/18. Been very dry since July. The 42" of rain from Jan. thru June were compliments of El-Nino.
WE had 2.55" in July, 5" in August, 3" in September, 0.00 in october.
I will say we have had 3" in November so far which is above normal so my yearly total is at 55" not 52. 2.50" occured 11/2/10.
Quoting klaatuborada:
Well, it's a balmy 44 F today. There was frost on the car when I drove my daughter to school. I've got a shirt and big sweater right now and I'm still freezing. Going down to 34 tonight, might get to 50 tomorrow. Down to 31 tomorrow night.

So buck up, you guys, with your highs in the 60's and 70's.


+1
At least you're in the warmer part of the state :-)
1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TO THE WEST OF THE BAY ISLANDS. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA LATER TODAY...AND DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND. THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Why does it always warm up for Thanksgiving and Christmas every year in the Tampa Bay area? This last winter was the only one that had cool weather for both days, but we also had sleet and snow last winter and one of the coldest winters ever and a record low of 24 in January, only 5 degrees above the all time coldest temp ever recorded here of 19 here.

The funny thing is, even though we did have finally a cool Thanksgiving and a cool Christmas, it was quite warm still compared to how cold last winter was.


I'm glad we don't get bitter cold winters here in Florida, but I wish it would regularly be cooler here during the winter. I'm an outdoorsman, so hunting and fishing is a lot more important to me then being a pretty boy and spending my life sitting on the beach getting tans and trying to hit on girls, what a boring way of life, and not very fulfilling for a man, no wonder many dudes are such wussies in Florida! lol

I don't know why sitting out on the beach in 90 degree heat is darn popular to millions of people. I love getting sun, but I get sun just working hard out on my land or fishing out in the intercoastal.
Run away run away... the world is going to end as we know it :(

Warnings

Greater Victoria
10:55 AM PST Friday 19 November 2010
Snowfall warning for
Greater Victoria continued

5 to 10 cm of snow tonight.

This is a warning that significant snowfall is expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A building Arctic ridge of high pressure over the British Columbia interior is producing strong outflow winds through the coastal valleys of the province and as a result cold air has pushed out to the coast. This cold air is forecast to combine with a low pressure system off Vancouver Island tonight to produce the first widespread snowfall of the season.

5 to 10 cm of snow is forecast for metro Vancouver, East Vancouver Island, Greater Victoria and the Southern Gulf Islands with the highest amounts over higher terrain. Locally higher amounts are also possible along East Vancouver Island where outflow winds will pick up moisture over the strait of Georgia.

The strong northeasterly outflow winds are expected to rise to 90 km/h with gusts to 110 over the Central Coast - coastal sections and up to 70 km/h with gusts to 90 over the southern sections of Howe Sound this evening.

The Arctic airmass will also combine with the strong northeasterly outflow winds to produce low windchill values below minus 20 degrees over the inland sections of the north and central coast. The strong winds and cold windchills are expected to moderate later Saturday as the Arctic ridge and the pacific low weaken.

eleven days to the official end to the hurricane season. after a pounding from Tomas here in St Lucia we have yet to receive some respite from the inclement weather. For the last 3 days we have been subjected to flash floods from the surface trough to our east. the whole island is affected and yesterday commercial actvity in the capital castries came to an abrupt halt .due to the excessive flooding. what now concerns me ,is the area of disturbed weather to the southeast of the islands. there is some cyclonic turning near 5N 40W. Shear is low and is forecast to remain so for the next two days. this could be another problem as this system moves west into a favourable environment. i will monitor this area very closely for any surprises
69 in the winter of 89 we had a wonderful snowstorm in Florida for Christmas.









Its not really a factor of cold - but of storm moisture being present when there is cold.
2010's (3 Snow Events, 3 Snow Events in One Year)

Main article: North American blizzard of 2009
See also: Winter storms of 2009-2010




Satellite image for January 24, 2003 snowfall


  • January 8-9, 2010: Very light dusting of snow seen in the eastern
    Jacksonville area. Light snow also fell in parts of central Florida,
    which briefly accumulated slightly in parts of Marion County. Sleet was widespread and snow was isolated across the Orlando area, Tampa and also in Melbourne.[19] Isolated flurries were even reported as from West Palm Beach to as far south as Kendall and sleet in a few spots in the South Florida metropolitan area for only the second time in record history and first time since 1977.[20]
  • February 12, 2010: A possibility of up to 4-7 inches of snow were
    predicted in Northwestern Florida including Pensacola and Crestview.
    Actual totals ended up around 1 inch in many spots.[21] 2010 is the first year since the mid 1950's to have more than one accumulation of snow in a single year.
  • February 14, 2010: A half inch of snow fell across the northern halves of Escambia, Santa Rosa, Walton and Okaloosa Counties.[22] Snowfall was associated with an Alberta clipper that sank southward due to Arctic air left by the cold front from the previous snow event.

From 2000 to 2009 there were only 6 snow events TOTAL.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there really is no help4u


link
Great Appalachian Storm of November 1950 The preceding atmospheric state was one of La Nina conditions, the cold phase of ENSO...
I like little text

Anyway, we should be in for more of these type events within current trends in climate.
It's going to get cold here for Thanksgiving...If only snow was added to the forecast...Maybe like a foot and a half of snow...


Figure 1. My 7-Day Forecast map for Fort Worth, Texas (Radar Station KDFW)
RE comment 76. Atlanta set its all time November low of 3 and had a high of 14 downtown on November 25 1950. That high of 14 was the coldest high temperature Atlanta observed during the 20th century. Not one day in winter had a colder high.
Famous Thanksgiving Weather

Yea Georgia and Kentucky really got the worst of that one.
Pittsburgh also had their heaviest snow of all time I believe.
lol yea it looks like it:



Ohio had some of it too:

I placed my order back in early October for a repeat of Feb 1899!
The records sure fell for that one too:

* Cape May, New Jersey: 0 F (-17 C) (coldest temperature ever recorded in Cape May county)

* Tallahassee, Florida: -2 F (-19 C) (only recorded instance of a sub-zero Fahrenheit temperature in Florida)

* Diamond, Georgia: -12 F (-24 C)

* Atlanta, Georgia: -9 F (-23 C) (coldest ever in Atlanta history since at least 1874)

* Sandy Hook, Kentucky: -33 F (-36 C)

* Minden, Louisiana: -16 F (-27 C)

* Fort Logan, Montana: -61 F (-51 C)

* Camp Clark, Nebraska: -47 F (-44 C)

* Milligan, Ohio: -39 F (-39 C)

* Lawrenceville, Pennsylvania: -39 F (-39 C)

* Santuc, South Carolina: -11 F (-24 C)

* Erasmus, Tennessee: -30 F (-34 C)

* Austin, Texas: -1 F (-18 C)

* San Antonio, Texas: 4 F (-15C)

* Monterey, Virginia: -29 F (-34 C) (all-time state low until 1985)

* Dayton, West Virginia: -35 F (-37 C)

* Washington, D.C.: -15 F (-26 C) (still the all-time low temperature within the District of Columbia)



Snowball fight on the steps of the Florida Capitol, Feb. 1899.
 I beat it.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I placed my order back in early October for a repeat of Feb 1899!


Yes I know.. I have reposted it numerous times :)
I think that is the only recorded snow in Miami KOG.

Looking back its seems pretty obvious lows were getting stronger.  ESP considering the 93 storm.
forever faster and faster

JF
the 29th and 30th are looking interesting in the NE on the GFS.

I dont think its nearly resolved even for next week yet.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
the 29th and 30th are looking interesting in the NE on the GFS.

I dont think its nearly resolved even for next week yet.


When we get another cold season due to the conditions forecast above, just wait for all the denialists (most of whom live in Europe and eastern North America, as it so happens) to start crowing, "See? Where is this global warming?" So many don't understand that the planet is more than just their back yards...
Quoting stoormfury:
eleven days to the official end to the hurricane season. after a pounding from Tomas here in St Lucia we have yet to receive some respite from the inclement weather. For the last 3 days we have been subjected to flash floods from the surface trough to our east. the whole island is affected and yesterday commercial actvity in the capital castries came to an abrupt halt .due to the excessive flooding. what now concerns me ,is the area of disturbed weather to the southeast of the islands. there is some cyclonic turning near 5N 40W. Shear is low and is forecast to remain so for the next two days. this could be another problem as this system moves west into a favourable environment. i will monitor this area very closely for any surprises


Models, up to this moment, show no development.... Cold fronts will move all that moisture from the ITCZ NE into the Atl.... Up to this moment models read "Atl Hur Season Over". Here in PR, beautiful afternoons and Surfing season activated....
I have a request ... does anyone have a saved image(s) shots of the Martinique Radar of Tropical Storm/Hurricane Tomas as it approached Barbados.

That would be between 10:00 PM Oct. 29th (0200Z/30) and 4 AM Oct 30th (0800Z/30).

I would much appreciate it if you could zip them up and send them to my e-mail dbrooks@brohavwx.com

If too big for e-mail I can arrange for FTP upload access to my site.

Of course if anyone know where to find such archived images on the net, that would be just as good.

Thanks in advance.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Models, up to this moment, show no development.... Cold fronts will move all that moisture from the ITCZ NE into the Atl.... Up to this moment models read "Atl Hur Season Over". Here in PR, beautiful afternoons and Surfing season activated....


Same here in FL, surfing season's a go!
Quoting brohavwx:
I have a request ... does anyone have a saved image(s) shots of the Martinique Radar of Tropical Storm/Hurricane Tomas as it approached Barbados.

That would be between 10:00 PM Oct. 29th (0200Z/30) and 4 AM Oct 30th (0800Z/30).

I would much appreciate it if you could zip them up and send them to my e-mail dbrooks@brohavwx.com

If too big for e-mail I can arrange for FTP upload access to my site.

Of course if anyone know where to find such archived images on the net, that would be just as good.

Thanks in advance.
Plenty.

Go here to "StormChasers2007's 2010 Hurricane Season images", and start looking on page(s) 2 and 3 for radar and satellite images of Tomas as it went over the Antilles. I'm really short on time right now so I won't be able to send you them by e-mail, however, if I find the time tomorrow I will be more than happy to do so.
Quoting caneswatch:


Same here in FL, surfing season's a go!


What are you talking about? It is freezing here in Ft. Lauderdale, we're down to almost 70.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Plenty.

Go here to "StormChasers2007's 2010 Hurricane Season images", and start looking on page(s) 2 and 3 for radar and satellite images of Tomas as it went over the Antilles. I'm really short on time right now so I won't be able to send you them by e-mail, however, if I find the time tomorrow I will be more than happy to do so.



What, no globe?
Quoting Grothar:



What, no globe?
No, but I got this image of Super-Typhoon Megi as it was making landfall over Luzon as a category 5. I personally prefer this image over the globe since Africa is dead right now, but you know, that's just me. :)

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No, but I got this image of Super-Typhoon Megi as it was making landfall over Luzon as a category 5. I personally prefer this image over the globe since Africa is dead right now, but you know, that's just me. :)



Nice shot. I never saw a hurricane on Pepto-Bismol before.
Grothar.... LOL...


Quoting Dakster:
Grothar.... LOL...




Somebody is alive!!!!! TV can't be that good tonight. How you doing Dak? Just up to my old sarcastic humor.
Quoting Grothar:


Nice shot. I never saw a hurricane on Pepto-Bismol before.
Ehem, typhoon. The Pepto-Bismol part made me literally laugh out loud though.
Hey gro - not much you?

Hey MH09... How's the college hunting going?
Quoting Dakster:
Hey gro - not much you?

Hey MH09... How's the college hunting going?
Hello. High school hunting you mean, lol.
I thought you were close to going to college...
Quoting Dakster:
I thought you were close to going to college...
A few more years.
MH09 - Enjoy your younger years while you can...

Right Grothar?

Welp. goodnight all.
Quoting Dakster:
MH09 - Enjoy your younger years while you can...

Right Grothar?

LOL.
Quoting Dakster:
Welp. goodnight all.
Good night Dak.
Yup, we have had readings and standards that are verifiable for centuries, right?

Reading material if you like.

http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/2/11/2561/pdf
Quoting Ossqss:
Yup, we have had readings and standards that are verifiable for centuries, right?

Reading material if you like.

http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/2/11/2561/pdf


No.
Complete Update

Nada Tropical happening... but the clouds here have dandruff... and its starting to stick :(






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Quoting JFLORIDA:



I've looked at the webicorders. There's a ton of electronic noise right now. I doubt that those quakes are real, and they will probably disappear upon review. Of course, if they ARE real, they are at depths that could only be within the magma chamber. Let's just hope it's noise.
I provided indisputable evidence of the climate in Greenland from years ago via DNA and ice cores. Just look and learn. What do you think provides the energy for what you see today ????? Is there any other source of energy for our planet that will impact your climate ??? Think about it, and do some math.


Quoting Caffinehog:


I've looked at the webicorders. There's a ton of electronic noise right now. I doubt that those quakes are real, and they will probably disappear upon review. Of course, if they ARE real, they are at depths that could only be within the magma chamber. Let's just hope it's noise.
I remember it acting up back in 2008.
Quoting Ossqss:
I provided indisputable evidence of the climate in Greenland from years ago via DNA and ice cores. Just look and learn. What do you think provides the energy for what you see today ????? Is there any other source of energy for our planet that will impact your climate ??? Think about it, and do some math.



This is very good and real close to my position for which I am regularly attacked. It speaks of the facts.
Being called away by "She who must be obeyed." See ya'll.
Quoting pilotguy1:


This is very good and real close to my position for which I am regularly attacked. It speaks of the facts.
\

Facts are a good thing !

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/07/070705153019.htm
what storms will be upgraded or retired...
Alex, 115 MPH cat.3 (retired - 60%)I say Yes
Igor, 155 MPH - 160 MPH cat.4-5 (Retired - 55%)NO, Yes if upgraded to cat 5.
Karl, 120 MPH cat.3 (retired 90%)Yes
Matthew, 60 MPH TS (retired 70%)Yes
Richard, 100 MPH Cat.2 (retired 45%)No
Shary, 75 MPH Cat.1 (retired 70%)Yes
Tomas, 100 MPH cat.2 (retired 75%)Yes
Oh for gods sake why bother!
3rd or 8th warmest on record?
On record!
If Doc Masters and others want to have any credibility with the global warming topic.
At least state the topic in non spin phrases like.......
3rd or 8th warmest that we have the technology to partially decipher any trend!
And that time frame is not the phrase on record.
If one keeps using unreliable conflicting pre 60s data as the record.
Then the statement of ? warmest needs to have more adjectives!
3rd 0r 8th?
Why bother?
1st or 100000th!
Not very convincing of anything but added undecipherable pseudo science!

Whats the parameters?
Add just one or two more tree rings,
just a few more aging thermometers surrounded by concrete!
Do yourself and your hypothesis a favor Dr Masters.
Dont mix questionable older data with the more?hopefully reliable data received after the 50s and call that the record.
Come up with something catchy like...
BC
Before credibility
Or
AS
After Satellites.
Stop mixing the manure in with the grain and calling it food.
Please!
We all want a cleaner and safer Earth!
But 3rd or 8th is not helping!
With all meant and due respect :o)

Quoting Ossqss:
I provided indisputable evidence of the climate in Greenland from years ago via DNA and ice cores. Just look and learn. What do you think provides the energy for what you see today ????? Is there any other source of energy for our planet that will impact your climate ??? Think about it, and do some math.


Oh, this old thing again? A video full of half-truths, populated by a pair of ExxonMobil-funded non-climatologists (Legates is a geographer, while Soon is an astrophysicist)?

But, okay, let's forget for a moment the pseudo-scientific provenance of the piece, and address it on its primary premise: that Greenland used to be green, and the Vikings had a grand old time cavorting around their lush tropical paradise.

Uh, no.

Viking existence on Greenland was harsh and meager, due mostly to their foolish insistence on living a European lifestyle in an arctic climate. Yes, they farmed cattle, goats, and sheep--but were only able to do so by keeping those animals in a barn 24 hours a day for five months out of the year. They overstressed the landscape so much with their European ways that they simply starved to death after several consecutive severe winters.

Too, Greenland's ice sheet is hundreds of thousands of years old, and the vast majority of land not under that sheet is rock and permafrost in the island's far north; how could things have possibly been much different just a thousand years ago?

Think about that, and do some math...
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
what storms will be upgraded or retired...
Alex, 115 MPH cat.3 (retired - 60%)I say Yes
Igor, 155 MPH - 160 MPH cat.4-5 (Retired - 55%)NO, Yes if upgraded to cat 5.
Karl, 120 MPH cat.3 (retired 90%)Yes
Matthew, 60 MPH TS (retired 70%)Yes
Richard, 100 MPH Cat.2 (retired 45%)No
Shary, 75 MPH Cat.1 (retired 70%)Yes
Tomas, 100 MPH cat.2 (retired 75%)Yes

My thoughts on retirement chances for the storms above:
Alex - 90%
Igor - 70%
Karl - 90%
Matthew - 60%
Richard - 0%
Shary - 0%
Tomas - 100%

(Modified 11/20 @ 8:33 AM)
Iceland, Greenland,crops,European grapes,Glaciers,warming and cooling,
A brief condensed history of....

Link

Just for fun :o)


______________________________________________________

The Greenland ice sheet has existed for at least 400,000 years. There may have been regions of Greenland that were 'greener' than today but this was not a global phenomenon.



______________________________________________________


The earliest documentation that is better than anecdotal is from the Domesday Book (1087)  an early census that the new Norman king commissioned to assess his new English dominions, including the size of farms, population etc. Being relatively frenchified , the Normans (who had originally come from Viking stock) were quite keen on wine drinking (rather than mead or ale) and so made special note of existing vineyards and where the many new vines were being planted.

Of the Domesday vineyards, all appear to lie below a line from Ely (Cambridgeshire) to Gloucestershire. Since the Book covers all of England up to the river Tees (north of Yorkshire), there is therefore reason to think that there weren t many vineyards north of that line. Lamb reports two vineyards to the north (Lincoln and Leeds, Yorkshire) at some point between 1000 and 1300 AD, and Selley even reports a Scottish vineyard operating in the 12th Century. However, it s probably not sensible to rely too much on these single reports since they don t necessarily come with evidence for successful or sustained wine production. Indeed, there is one lone vineyard reported in Derbyshire (further north than any Domesday vineyard) in the 16th Century when all other reports were restricted to the South-east of England.

Wine making never completely died out in England, there were always a few die-hard viticulturists willing to give it a go, but production clearly declined after the 13th Century, had a brief resurgence in the 17th and 18th Centuries, only to decline to historic lows in the 19th Century when only 8 vineyards are recorded. Contemporary popular sentiment towards English (and Welsh) wine can be well judged by a comment in  Punch (a satirical magazine) that the wine would require 4 people to drink it  one victim, two to hold him down, and one other to pour the wine down his throat.

Unremarked by most oenophiles though, English and Welsh wine production started to have a renaissance in the 1950s. By 1977, there were 124 reasonable-sized vineyards in production   more than at any other time over the previous millennium. This resurgence was also unremarked upon by Lamb, who wrote in that same year that the English climate (the average of 1921-1950 to be precise) remained about a degree too cold for wine production. Thus the myth of the non-existant English wine industry was born and thrust headlong into the climate change debate
WTF!!!



This is not suppose to happen in Victoria BC :(
Its NOVEMBER!!!!!



GWMA
those fish going to be ok in the pond orca is it heated
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
those fish going to be ok in the pond orca is it heated


Its 3 feet deep... they can survive easily.
They hibernate when it goes lower then 50 and they can have over a foot of ice ontop.
Idaho scientists find new seismic fault in Rockies

SALMON, Idaho (Reuters) – Scientists at Idaho State University have mapped a previously unknown and active seismic fault in the northern Rockies capable of unleashing an earthquake with a magnitude as high as 7.5.

The newly discovered fault in central Idaho does not lie in a densely populated area.

Link
Evidence from mountain glaciers does suggest increased glaciation in a number of widely spread regions outside Europe prior to the 20th century, including Alaska, New Zealand and Patagonia. However, the timing of maximum glacial advances in these regions differs considerably, suggesting that they may represent largely independent regional climate changes, not a globally-synchronous increased glaciation. Thus current evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of anomalous cold or warmth over this time frame, and the conventional terms of "Little Ice Age" and "Medieval Warm Period" appear to have limited utility in describing trends in hemispheric or global mean temperature changes in past centuries... [Viewed] hemispherically, the "Little Ice Age" can only be considered as a modest cooling of the Northern Hemisphere during this period of less than 1C relative to late 20th century levels.

But small changes can have huge implications we know.


Reconstructed Viking settlement

The story of the Vikings in Greenland is a complex one. It may have cooled a bit in one settlement, in some places at least, but more importantly it rained more and the land had been over depleted by that time. They faced other hardships and did not adapt well it seems to the non European lifestyle that Greenland demanded. The Church owned 2/3 of the good pasture land towards the end of the settlement days. The numbers continued to dwindle. The Inuit survived and in their stories some reference to piracy is made.



It is thought some gave up and left further complicating life for those left behind.

"...some must have stayed on their homesteads, unable to give up old attachments and resolved to wait out their fate. One such stoic was found lying face down on the beach of a fjord in the 1540s by a party of Icelandic seafarers, who like so many sailors before them had been blown off course on their passage to Iceland and wound up in Greenland. The only Norseman they would come across during their stay, he died where he had fallen, dressed in a hood, homespun woolens and seal skins. Nearby lay his knife, "bent and much worn and eaten away." Moved by their find, the men took it as a memento and carried it with them to show when at last they reached home."

By then he had probably laid there for years, if not decades, and if not even longer.
Night all.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST November 20 2010
===================================

Under influence of the upper air cyclonic circulation over east central Arabian Sea, a low pressure area has formed over central Arabian Sea.

Bay of Bengal & Andaman Sea
===========================

Broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over south Bay of Bengal and adjoining central Bay of Bengal, including south Andaman Sea

Arabian Sea
===========

Broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over south Arabian Sea, west of 64.0E with moderate to intense convection over rest Arabian Sea
Quoting brohavwx:
I have a request ... does anyone have a saved image(s) shots of the Martinique Radar of Tropical Storm/Hurricane Tomas as it approached Barbados.

That would be between 10:00 PM Oct. 29th (0200Z/30) and 4 AM Oct 30th (0800Z/30).

I would much appreciate it if you could zip them up and send them to my e-mail dbrooks@brohavwx.com

If too big for e-mail I can arrange for FTP upload access to my site.

Of course if anyone know where to find such archived images on the net, that would be just as good.

Thanks in advance.
139. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SAT NOV 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



The GFS and Euro are showing 2 totally different solutions next week. The Euro looks scary if this happens. Talk about severe wx while the GFS shows cold. The Euro has been consistant in showing a potentialy dangerous storm across the deep south in 10 days.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plots/ec_wind.html
Everyone keeps showing the GFS with the deep cold which is probably not going to happen for people in the south considering the Weather Channel and Orlando mets are showing upper 80's for Thanksgiving. If the euro pans out with this much heat and jetstream energy moving then we could be dealing with an explosive severe wx event from Mississippi to FLorida.
Quoting Neapolitan:

My thoughts on retirement chances for the storms above:
Alex - 90%
Igor - 70%
Karl - 90%
Matthew - 0%
Richard - 0%
Shary - 0%
Tomas - 100%

Why wouldn't Matthew be retired? He caused $2.6 billion in damage, and killed 126 people...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Why wouldn't Matthew be retired? He caused $2.6 billion in damage, and killed 126 people...

My bad; it was late and at the end of a long day when I posted that. ;-) My revised-while-awake list:

Alex - 90%
Igor - 70%
Karl - 90%
Matthew - 60%
Richard - 0%
Shary - 0%
Tomas - 100%
If I had go guess..
Alex: 60% Chance of retirement.
Reasons- 2.0 Billion dollars in damage to both Texas and Mexico. 20+ Dead.

Earl: 50% Chance of retirement.
Reasons- Moderate damage to the Leeward Island followed by heavy tree Damage in Canada.

Igor: 70-100% Chance of retirement.
Reasons- I only say 70% because I don't remember were it was posted but it was posted that Newfoundland requested retirement of Igor. I suspect post-season Igor will also be upgraded to a Category 5 based on ADT, SAB and TAFB measurements all indicated it was one at one point, perhaps twice.

Karl: 90% Chance of Retirement.
I'd be honestly quite surprised if Karl wasn't retired. 5.6+ Billion in damages to Mexico. Was pretty bad down there.

Matthew: 50-70% chance of retirement.
This would only be the 2nd time they retired a Tropical Storm but Matthew caused heavy damage to Nicaragua and Central America and heavy loss of life. They retired Felix that also made landfall in a similar area, so why not Matthew?

Tomas: 70-90% Chance of retirement.
The damage out of the islands sounds pretty bad, Tomas will probably get retired because of that.

Probably we'll see Igor, Karl and Tomas get the boot in Spring 2011.
Five retired storms is very rare, I think when a season is bad like this one some of the storms that would normally retire are faded in comparison and don't. Tomas and Karl I think are the only guarantees for retirement, Alex might not be suggested for retirement by Mexico, Igor only caused 200 mil, and Matthew's damage was widespread and he was only a TS, maybe a country won't suggest his retirement. No girls on this list kind of weird.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
No girls on this list kind of weird.

ACE-wise, 'male' storms tallied up 106.1775 points, leaving the 'females- with 53.335. Even if Igor--this year's global ACE leader--were removed from the equation, the boys would still lead with 63.7325.

The two most powerful 'female' storms this year--Danielle and Julia--never made landfall. Thankfully.
Greetings all.
Have not been able to post for a week or so, only because I have been having too much fun!

Now in Bariloche, (8 celcius, strong winds, 85% humid, and it is raining). Seems that rain is the norm here, as they move into Summer.

What an incredibly beautiful place Patagonia is! Desert, Mountains,(still snow capped here at 42 degrees south), Rainforest, and mucho huge lakes.
It has been fun staying in Fishing lodges,(big trout here!) cabins in forests, and homes of Family who I have never before met.

Leaving here this evening for the long haul home via Buenos Aires, Panama, then Trinidad.

Good to see that all is as it should be in the Tropics...
Quoting pilotguy1:
Being called away by "She who must be obeyed." See ya'll.
Wife??.Ah yes sometimes us wemon can get quite feisty.Lol.
Since everyone is talking about storms being retired I would say Igor(cuased alot of damage in canada,and newfoundland)Alex(cuased over a billon in damage to mexico)Karl(also cuased over 5 billion in mexico)Tomas(cuased alot of damage,and was one of the most expensive hurricanes for the island it effected)and maybe Richard?.Maybe not.But I feel as though Matthew will probally be retired to.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Five retired storms is very rare, I think when a season is bad like this one some of the storms that would normally retire are faded in comparison and don't. Tomas and Karl I think are the only guarantees for retirement, Alex might not be suggested for retirement by Mexico, Igor only caused 200 mil, and Matthew's damage was widespread and he was only a TS, maybe a country won't suggest his retirement. No girls on this list kind of weird.

Alex hit the 3rd largest city in Mexico hard while he was overland. Igor was the WORST hurricane in Newfoundland in at least a century, and Matthew was more damaging and deadly than ALLISON.
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SAT NOV 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



the end its getting closer now
Got an inch of snow overnight. More to come today, tomorrow and the next day. Thinking of warm weather areas again. Heading out to the Big Island in a week or so for some golf and snorkoling. Glad to see the season of the many minicanes is almost in the history books.
slowwwwww blooooogggg......
Quoting Orcasystems:
Quoting Orcasystems:
WTF!!!



This is not suppose to happen in Victoria BC :(
Its NOVEMBER!!!!!



GWMA


Wow! I WISH we had this much snow in S. Ontario!
Quoting Dr. Jeff Masters:
.... Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - October, as the warmest such period on record. October 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record...
This in a year with a moderate-to-strong La Nina, time for some background music from the denier chorus.

Also, new meteorological term of the day: Jetlet. As in:

"THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES AND EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ESP NEAR THE COAST SO HAVE DRAWN A SMALL LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POP THERE. MODELS ALSO SHOW UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING E/NE ACROSS THE GULF ASSOCD WITH A 250 MB JETLET. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL FL. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID-UPPER 70S SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.[...]"

From: FXUS62 KMLB 200852 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 352 AM EST SAT NOV 20 2010

Orca, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha!!!!!

Preview Link of the Polar Vortex on my new blog entry
Quoting Bordonaro:
Orca, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha!!!!!






It stopped for the late evening... but it has started again. I had to get SWMBO out of bed so she could clean off my truck and get the driveway cleared.
Quoting guygee:
This in a year with a moderate-to-strong La Nina, time for some background music from the denier chorus.

Also, new meteorological term of the day: Jetlet. As in:

"THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES AND EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ESP NEAR THE COAST SO HAVE DRAWN A SMALL LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POP THERE. MODELS ALSO SHOW UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING E/NE ACROSS THE GULF ASSOCD WITH A 250 MB JETLET. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL FL. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID-UPPER 70S SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.[...]"

From: FXUS62 KMLB 200852 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 352 AM EST SAT NOV 20 2010



Definitions of jetlet on the Web:

* Sometimes used for “small” jet stream. The term very likely originated to describe relatively small regions of maximum wind, especially those analyzed as jet streams because the maximum wind falls within an arbitrary range of jet- stream speed.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Alex hit the 3rd largest city in Mexico hard while he was overland. Igor was the WORST hurricane in Newfoundland in at least a century, and Matthew was more damaging and deadly than ALLISON.

Found out Allison's damage, WAY more damaging than I thought. Oops. Matthew is still more deadly though.
Quoting Orcasystems:






It stopped for the late evening... but it has started again. I had to get SWMBO out of bed so she could clean off my truck and get the driveway cleared.


How did that work out for you?

I hear singing in the background, must be that lady singing about the 2010 season...
Quoting Dakster:


How did that work out for you?

I hear singing in the background, must be that lady singing about the 2010 season...


She mentioned something about the sun ... and something about the sun not shining somewhere... hard to remember, I now have a ringing sound in my ears... and the frying pan is on the floor...
Quoting Bordonaro:
The NCEP shows the cold air nicely. Check out the Caribbean Sea after 168 hours..lol...Link
Quoting hydrus:
The NCEP shows the cold air nicely. Check out the Caribbean Sea after 168 hours..lol...Link
My link is not working. If you have time, pull up the NCEP, its worth the look... Here is the always interesting MIMIC loop..
Heh!!
Looks pretty gruesome there, Orca!
It is cold, windy and wet in this part of Argentina as well, but Summer is coming here soon.

My next post will be from the Sunny, Hot Caribbean. On Monday...
Quoting pottery:
Heh!!
Looks pretty gruesome there, Orca!
It is cold, windy and wet in this part of Argentina as well, but Summer is coming here soon.

My next post will be from the Sunny, Hot Caribbean. On Monday...


I will be in Mexico in January..... which seems like a long ways away. It should be all melted shortly...I hope.

Boil-water advisory in effect at least until 3 p.m., Sunday, Landrieu says

A boil-water advisory issued for the east bank of New Orleans will last until at least until 3 p.m., Sunday, as officials await test results that will show if a prolonged overnight drop in water pressure caused contamination of the city's drinking water, Mayor Mitch Landrieu said during a noon news conference at City Hall.
A couple of notes.

I am not so sure Tomas will be retired. Hurricane Gordon in 1994 killed more than 1,100 in Haiti but was not retired. The WMO considered that the destruction and deaths in Haiti were caused not by the hurricane, but by the mismanagement of the environment.

Also, in the list of cold records from the 1899 cold wave the 4 degrees in San Antonio was broken in 1949 when the temperature fell all the way to zero.
I was pretty accurate on my Dr.M Blog forecast.

70% chance of weekend global warming blog.

If only the climate was as easy to predict as the experts' habits..
GOM IR loop

Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
A couple of notes.

I am not so sure Tomas will be retired. Hurricane Gordon in 1994 killed more than 1,100 in Haiti but was not retired. The WMO considered that the destruction and deaths in Haiti were caused not by the hurricane, but by the mismanagement of the environment.


I'll disagree with you on that, and even go out on a limb by saying that if only one storm name is retired this year, it'll be Tomas.

Here are the death tolls/dollar damages* for each of this year's probable retirement candidates:

Alex - 73 / 1,885
Igor - 4 / 164
Karl - 22 / 5,600
Matthew - 126 / 2,600
Tomas - 41 / 572

Now, by way of comparison, here are a few retired names from recent years:

Fabian (2003) - 8 / 354
Felix (2007) - 133 / 756
Noel (2007) - 222 / 609
Paloma (2008) - 1 / 315

As you can see, retirement isn't based on just lives or money lost; it also has to do with what's requested.

* - death tolls include direct, indirect, and missing presumed dead; monetary amounts are in 2010 millions of USD.
No cool air coming to FL anytime soon. Infact the Euro blows up a big storm over FL later next week.
Quoting Jeff9641:
No cool air coming to FL anytime soon. Infact the Euro blows up a big storm over FL later next week.
In opinion I think Tomas may be the only storm that will be retired, however I could be wrong about that. I've been wrong before. Also I hope everybody in North Texas is enjoying the warm weather, because it sure seems like the bottom is going to drop out come Thanksgiving!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


The Euro and most other models do not show that. At this point I am reluctant to believe the GFS as most of the models are showing a very complex pattern later next week that will yeild a series of big storms for the SE US and NE US.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plots/ec850_18.png
If I had to pick five storms this year up for retirement and their percentages, it would be:

1st place: Hurricane Karl/90%

2nd place: Tropical Storm Matthew/80%

3rd place: Hurricane Alex/70%

4th place: Hurricane Igor/65%

4th place: Hurricane Tomas/65%

5th place: Hurricane Earl/55%
Quoting lightningbolt73:
In opinion I think Tomas may be the only storm that will be retired, however I could be wrong about that. I've been wrong before. Also I hope everybody in North Texas is enjoying the warm weather, because it sure seems like the bottom is going to drop out come Thanksgiving!


Yup...Made this yesterday.

THe Euro and Canadian models are pinching off the cold air and keeping it north while developing at Cut off Low near the GULF. May take a couple of weeks to get any significant cooling for FL.
Quoting Jeff9641:
THe Euro and Canadian models are pinching off the cold air and keeping it north while developing at Cut off Low near the GULF. May take a couple of weeks to get any significant cooling for FL.
we will see
New Image!



KDFW - Dallas/Fort Worth Radar Station (Forecast for Fort Worth, Texas)
185. IKE
6-10 day temps...




8-14 day temps...

Quoting IKE:
6-10 day temps...




8-14 day temps...



Somehow, I believe this winter will not go as planned...In fact, judging by the maps, it might be the complete opposite. :P

The blue is supposed to be covering the Northwest, and the orange should be covering the south.
176 It would have been a boom for the US considering economic trends of the last 50 years. But I don't care for that kind of speculation and profit talking. Other options are quickly dissolving as we lose our technical edge in green manufacturing while other governments move their countries forward.

No one thinks its interesting some countries don't dispute the science, heavily invest in green energy and new technology, yet refuse to negotiate on emissions? For instance the new second biggest economy.

I wouldn't be surprised if they were actually funding the denial movement here while heavily subsidizing green industry in their own countries.

Everyone knows the science is sound, everyone using reasonable deduction that is. Eventually the predictions will come to pass, politics gives and opportunity to shift the balances before the inevitable.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Somehow, I believe this winter will not go as planned...In fact, judging by the maps, it might be the complete opposite. :P

The blue is supposed to be covering the Northwest, and the orange should be covering the south.


I would love to see those temps here in C FL but the fact is forecast call for mid 80's most of next week with a slight cool down next weekend. Infact NWS is calling for temps 5 to 7 degrees above normal most of the next 7 days. Now it will get very cold in TX as the cold air will move due south then get pinched off and slide over the northern US. Very dangerous pattern the Euro and GFS are showing in regards to a severe wx outbreak and potential snow toward Oklahoma.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_264.shtml

Look at this on the Euro in 10 days! WOW!!

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plots/ec850_20.png
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Somehow, I believe this winter will not go as planned...In fact, judging by the maps, it might be the complete opposite. :P

The blue is supposed to be covering the Northwest, and the orange should be covering the south.
I agree.And it looks like that NAO wants to stay negative for awhile....It may almost be like last year only insted with the lack of moisture becuase of no El nino this time.
Orlando international


Sun
Nov 21
Partly Cloudy
80°
61°



Mon
Nov 22
Partly Cloudy
82°
62°


Tue
Nov 23
Partly Cloudy
82°
61°


Wed
Nov 24
Partly Cloudy
84°
60


Thu
Nov 25
Partly Cloudy
83°
61°


Fri
Nov 26
Scattered T-Storms
76°
47°



I bet the GFS changes and matches the Euro and Canadian this run or the 00Z run. Both models are now developing a cut off low over the Gulf and intensify it as it crosses FL. Heavy rain may very well be on the way to most of FL if this holds on the models.
Speaking of rain some of it is heavy as it crosses the Brevard County coast and this rain is trying to spread toward orlando. Finally more rain as we so need it.
Quoting Ossqss:
Collapse of Chicago Climate Exchange Means a Strategy Shift on Global Warming Curbs

Next


Interesting quote in there from Myron Ebell, the ultra-conservative philosophy major: "The problem is now that the administration changed strategy and is using existing laws and regulations, like the Clean Air Act, the Endangered Species Act and EPA regulations to implement its agenda."

Did you catch that? "The problem"? It's a "problem" that the current administration has the utter gall to try to enforce highly-regarded environmental protection laws to slow down Big Energy's headlong rush to utterly destroy the planet? Wow, how dare they?! All those people who think that maintaining the long-term health of the Earth for our ancestors should be ashamed of themselves! Don't they know that it's un-American to do anything that might curtail the profits of ExxonMobil?!

Boy oh boy is this country--and this planet--in trouble. Deep, deep trouble...
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
A couple of notes.

I am not so sure Tomas will be retired. Hurricane Gordon in 1994 killed more than 1,100 in Haiti but was not retired. The WMO considered that the destruction and deaths in Haiti were caused not by the hurricane, but by the mismanagement of the environment.

Also, in the list of cold records from the 1899 cold wave the 4 degrees in San Antonio was broken in 1949 when the temperature fell all the way to zero.


Gordon was not retired because of totally different reasons in the WMO's own words ' crediting Jamaica and Cuba's warning infrastructure for the low loss of life there, and blaming Haiti's lack of such a system for the large number of deaths there.'
Good stuff to know. I guess that helps explain the large number of October tropical cyclones this year.

-Dan
Homepage
Quoting pottery:
Heh!!
Looks pretty gruesome there, Orca!
It is cold, windy and wet in this part of Argentina as well, but Summer is coming here soon.

My next post will be from the Sunny, Hot Caribbean. On Monday...


Except it's been raining very hard since last night and the temp is 24 C at the moment, I'm reaching for a shirt!!!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I know climatology doesn't support it but does anyone else think the blob in the EPAC (remnants of 94L looks sketchy? There's a curved band forming with plenty of outflow to the north. Also that convection lingering over the east carribean for the past few days.
GFS shows a EPAC storm 6 days out:


And atlantic storm 14 days out:


Unlikely, but very possible.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Speaking of rain some of it is heavy as it crosses the Brevard County coast and this rain is trying to spread toward orlando. Finally more rain as we so need it.


.02" here in Melbourne. Smelling smoke occasionally the last two days.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I agree.And it looks like that NAO wants to stay negative for awhile....It may almost be like last year only insted with the lack of moisture becuase of no El nino this time.


Of course there will be cold snaps, it's almost winter!

The NAO is almost always negative; it's only when it gets strongly negative that the cold effect is seen. And it is progged to become only weakly negative by Dec. 5 or so:



In addition, the PNA, which when negative is also related to cold in the north/east, is also progged to be near neutral by Dec. 5 or so:



CPC still predicts above average temps for most of the southern US Dec-Mar:





BTW, the CPC weekend outlooks are not graced with forecaster input, so they must be viewed with caution.

Quoting winter123:
GFS shows a EPAC storm 6 days out:


And atlantic storm 14 days out:


Unlikely, but very possible.


Not that unlikely; there've been four named December storms over the previous seven seasons (2003-2009), so you could say there's a better than 57% chance we'll see one this year. ;-)

Click to enlarge
Since we're slow, thought folks who hadn't seen the would like these weather-related pictures from the 2010 National Geographic Photo Contest. The first is a small snowstorm over the Black Sea (with a freighter in the foreground adding perspective); the second is, of course, lightning striking the Statue of Liberty. MORE

Click for larger image:

Appropriate weather-related image


Click for larger image:

Appropriate weather-related image
Quoting Neapolitan:
Since we're slow, thought folks who hadn't seen the would like these weather-related pictures from the 2010 National Geographic Photo Contest. The first is a small snowstorm over the Black Sea (with a freighter in the foreground adding perspective); the second is, of course, lightning striking the Statue of Liberty. MORE

Click for larger image:

Appropriate weather-related image


Click for larger image:

Appropriate weather-related image

The second looks like a fake.
Quoting Vincent4989:

The second looks like a fake.

NG has been burned in the past by faked amateur shots, so their guidelines are pretty strict. To begin with, they won't accept a single photo; even from their pros, the insist on a number of untouched, straight-from-the-camera frames shot both before and after the actual entry. Not providing those is cause for immediate disqualification.

It's real...
A little cooler weather coming after Thanksgiving:

Local Text Forecast for
Lake Worth, FL (33461)

Nov 20 Tonight
Mostly cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy after midnight. Slight chance of a rain shower. Low 68F. Winds E at 10 to 15 mph.
Nov 21 Tomorrow
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High around 80F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph.
Nov 21 Tomorrow night
Partly cloudy. Low 69F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph.
Nov 22 Monday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Nov 23 Tuesday
Scattered showers. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 24 Wednesday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 25 Thursday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 26 Friday
Partly cloudy with a stray thunderstorm. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s.
Nov 27 Saturday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Nov 28 Sunday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s.
Nov 29 Monday
More sun than clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Since we're slow, thought folks who hadn't seen the would like these weather-related pictures from the 2010 National Geographic Photo Contest. The first is a small snowstorm over the Black Sea (with a freighter in the foreground adding perspective); the second is, of course, lightning striking the Statue of Liberty. MORE

Click for larger image:

Appropriate weather-related image

Click for larger image:

Appropriate weather-related image


Amazing photos Nea!! I again this is one reason I really like your post!
Working on part one of my large review of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season.
Part 1 of my 2010 review
Link

Its a long read but I hope you all enjoy!
I think when it comes to hurricanes/major hurricanes the United States "break" will come to an end next hurricane season.Be prepared each year like always.
Did I kill the blog? One hour and nobody around?
Quoting Grothar:
Did I kill the blog? One hour and nobody around?


It is Saturday night you old person you. Young people go out on the town on Saturday night. Thats why you and I are still on the blog. :)


Quoting Vincent4989:

The second looks like a fake.


That lightning strike if you look at closely is coming from well behind the SL.....its on shore it appears.
Quoting RTLSNK:


It is Saturday night you old person you. Young people go out on the town on Saturday night. Thats why you and I are still on the blog. :)




Who goes out this late? It's almost 11. Wassup, Snake?
Its amazing how few blog on here anymore....only a little over 200 post since yesterday.......that is unreal.......never seen it like this before. But, they have done this to themselves allowing the stuff that goes on here all the time....SAD SAD
Quoting TampaSpin:
Its amazing how few blog on here anymore....only a little over 200 post since yesterday.......that is unreal.......never seen it like this before. But, they have done this to themselves allowing the stuff that goes on here all the time....SAD SAD


Well, no wonder. It took you two hours to figure out that picture. LOL How you doing Big T? And thanks for the updates, by the way.
Even GeoffWPB hasn't been on posting his boring intellicast images. There must be a Three Stooges Marathon on. You know how old people get.
Quoting Grothar:


Who goes out this late? It's almost 11. Wassup, Snake?


Just came by to say hello. Time to call it a night for me. Busy day tomorrow. Packing up for a family Thanksgiving in Asheville, NC next week. Would be nice if it snowed. :)
Quoting Grothar:


Well, no wonder. It took you two hours to figure out that picture. LOL How you doing Big T? And thanks for the updates, by the way.


I was just reading all my emails.......to much stuff......LOL
howdy everybody
Quoting Grothar:
Did I kill the blog? One hour and nobody around?


Note the name of the group and song for that matter :)



OUt >>>
Quoting Grothar:


Who goes out this late? It's almost 11. Wassup, Snake?


Obviously you havent been to NOLA in awhile Gro.

We dont do Dinner till 11pm on a Saturday.

Den we go out.

The Vieux Carre isnt Local Worthy till Midnight easily..
true.
From the NewYorkTimes:
[...]
These have not been the charismatic disasters that wreak havoc in a single, Hollywood-style demonstration of natural might. There has been no trembling earth, rampaging waves or swirling hurricane clouds. There has been no induction to local legend akin to the 67 twisters that rampaged across South Dakota on a single summer day seven years ago known as Tornado Tuesday.
Indeed, not a single death has been directly attributed to the disasters. Instead these comparably modest weather events have combined forces to inflict damage like a plague of grasshoppers: bit by bit. (And yes, the state had that too.)
[...]
Down the road, Gary Knock, 60, works the same section of land that once belonged to his great-grandfather. He said that he does not believe in global warming but that there is no missing the changes that have occurred here. He blames natural weather cycles for the milder winters, cooler summers and all the water.
"The flooding is increasingly getting worse." [...] "People are getting disgusted with it. Because it's not just some years and it's not just once a year. It's three times or four times a year. Extreme is normal -- that sounds crazy, but that is how it is."
Quoting TampaSpin:
Its amazing how few blog on here anymore....only a little over 200 post since yesterday.......that is unreal.......never seen it like this before. But, they have done this to themselves allowing the stuff that goes on here all the time....SAD SAD


In my experience, it's always been like this, for the most part. It's the price we pay during the off-season.
Does anyone know what the farmer's almanac is calling for this winter. Specifically the new york area?

or where i might be able to find out online?
Quoting HurrikanEB:
Does anyone know what the farmer's almanac is calling for this winter. Specifically the new york area?

or where i might be able to find out online?
Link


Try this link.
Could any of the blobs in the Caribbean develop?
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Could any of the blobs in the Caribbean develop?
.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Could any of the blobs in the Caribbean develop?
Good morning. I don't think anyone is on who can answer you but I guess at this time of year anything is possible although I think chances are very slim.
Quoting RTLSNK:


Just came by to say hello. Time to call it a night for me. Busy day tomorrow. Packing up for a family Thanksgiving in Asheville, NC next week. Would be nice if it snowed. :)

Looks like you've got a good chance for it up there..have fun for all of us stuck in down here in pcola(or lower alabama)
Latest 06Z GFS run is hinting at cold air for December 3-4th, 2010 over North Texas AGAIN :O)!!

We have a confused La Nina!!! It thinks it's a "dry El Nino".. Is there a weather psychiatrist in the house?????
Thanks for the update Orca...this blog seems dead right now...hey i gotta idea ..lets all go to asheville nc next week!! Oh nevermind..kidney stone flaring up..
Orcasystem Vancouver, BC Weather Forecast..

Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha!!! It's your turn :O)

Scattered Clouds. High: 32 F . Wind NE 8 mph . Windchill: 24 F .

Sunday Night
Clear. Low: 19 F . Wind NNE 13 mph . Windchill: 17 F .

Monday
Scattered Clouds. High: 26 F . Wind NNE 13 mph . Windchill: 13 F .

Monday Night
Clear. Low: 13 F . Wind NNE 17 mph . Windchill: 3 F .

Tuesday
Clear. High: 22 F . Wind ENE 6 mph . Windchill: 13 F .

Tuesday Night
Clear. Low: 17 F . Wind East 6 mph . Windchill: 12 F .

Wednesday
Scattered Clouds. High: 32 F . Wind East 6 mph . Windchill: 22 F .

Wednesday Night
Partly Cloudy. Low: 26 F . Wind ESE 8 mph . Windchill: 19 F .

Thursday
Overcast. High: 41 F . Wind SE 8 mph . Windchill: 32 F .

Thursday Night
Chance of Snow. Overcast. Low: 32 F . Wind SE 11 mph . 20% chance of precipitation (trace amounts). Windchill: 24 F .

Friday
Chance of Rain. Partly Cloudy. High: 44 F . Wind East 8 mph . 40% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 0.20 in).

Friday Night
Chance of Rain. Overcast. Low: 35 F . Wind ESE 13 mph . 40% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 0.28 in). Windchill: 32 F .
Quoting Bordonaro:
Latest 06Z GFS run is hinting at cold air for December 3-4th, 2010 over North Texas AGAIN :O)!!

We have a confused La Nina!!!

Been reading your articles,signed up,very good!!
Quoting pcola57:

Been reading your articles,signed up,very good!!

Thanks, I have this funny feeling an upper level Low pressure area, a cut-off Low is going to form over the Desert Southwest and approach N Texas on Thanksgiving, with possible rain and/or snow!!!!!!
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Orca, do you have anymore snow pics to share????
Quoting Bordonaro:

Thanks, I have this funny feeling an upper level Low pressure area, a cut-off Low is going to form over the Desert Southwest and approach N Texas on Thanksgiving, with possible rain and/or snow!!!!!!

My brother just moved to upper Arizona from here in p'cola...culture and weather shock...Maybe his luck will aid in that cut-off low your speaking of..he has that kind of luck..HA!.By the way need a kidney stone free of charge...just shipping and handling?
I'll be giving birth to it soon..I thought Taco would be a cool name...what 'cha think
249. eddye
is it going 2 get cold in south fla
Quoting pcola57:

My brother just moved to upper Arizona from here in p'cola...culture and weather shock...Maybe his luck will aid in that cut-off low your speaking of..he has that kind of luck..HA!.By the way need a kidney stone free of charge...just shipping and handling?


Had that before......OUCHY! I will pass on that free prize. The way people are hurting maybe you could pay someone to take it away tho.....LOL Hope you feel better!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Had that before......OUCHY! I will pass on that free prize. The way people are hurting maybe you could pay someone to take it away tho.....LOL Hope you feel better!

Thanks for the sympathy TampaSpin,right now i'm so medicated i don't think i will feel it...this is #3...don't want anymore for sure...
Quoting eddye:
is it going 2 get cold in south fla

It appears a brief cool down, no big cold snap for FL, this time!!
Latest Winter Weather Blog article is up and ready for the reading at this Link

Here is a Link to the Ft Worth Weather Examiner page on Examiner.com covering North TX, US and World weather events
Quoting Bordonaro:

Orca, do you have anymore snow pics to share????


I posted some new ones yesterday... as soon as I get a chance.., I am going into the backyard.. to find a big stick. You and I have to have a chat about this snow fetish you have.

Nea: the lady liberty shot is real,however thelightning didnt hit her, but struck behind her in liberty park,which is actually in NJ!!!,is that snowsquall pic,a lake effect like snow,or actually baroclonically induced??,eitherway that snow pic is amazing imo
Quoting Orcasystems:


I posted some new ones yesterday... as soon as I get a chance.., I am going into the backyard.. to find a big stick. You and I have to have a chat about this snow fetish you have.


Orca, the weather will modify slightly next week. I apologize, I was not trying to antagonize you, insult you or hurt your feelings.

It is truly amazing how BIZARRE the weather patterns have been this fall.


The only place left for the possiblity of Tropcial Development is in the Caribbean as Shear is climbing but, still below average as a whole in the area. The Season is about to end if not already. Time to concentrate on Winter Weather.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I posted some new ones yesterday... as soon as I get a chance.., I am going into the backyard.. to find a big stick. You and I have to have a chat about this snow fetish you have.

LOLOL
Quoting Bordonaro:


Orca, the weather will modify slightly next week. I apologize, I was not trying to antagonize you, insult you or hurt your feelings.

It is truly amazing how BIZARRE the weather patterns have been this fall.


Snow in Victoria is an oddity... Snow in November is just stupid. I was planning on golfing this weekend.

Picked up the plane tickets for Mexico yesterday... that made me feel better. Now all we have to do is try and figure out how to get snow to Florida again this year :)
Quoting pcola57:

Thanks for the sympathy TampaSpin,right now i'm so medicated i don't think i will feel it...this is #3...don't want anymore for sure...


Its a Calcium build up. Avoid eating high Calcium foods and drink tons of water all the time. As the old saying go once you have 1, their is a good chance you will have more......YOU HOLD TRUE....my Dr. pre-warned me. AS he said, now you know what Labor pain feels like except a little worse. Get Well!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Snow in Victoria is an oddity... Snow in November is just stupid. I was planning on golfing this weekend.

Picked up the plane tickets for Mexico yesterday... that made me feel better. Now all we have to do is try and figure out how to get snow to Florida again this year :)


You can try slipping some thru on a plane.......but the scanners might melt it......LOL
Quoting Orcasystems:


Snow in Victoria is an oddity... Snow in November is just stupid. I was planning on golfing this weekend.

Picked up the plane tickets for Mexico yesterday... that made me feel better. Now all we have to do is try and figure out how to get snow to Florida again this year :)


This La Nina acts a little like last years "Modiki El Nino".

I believe that this La Nina has suffered a nervous breakdown and it needs a good weather psychiatrist!!
Gotta run......anyone wanting a Letter from Santa postmarked from the NORTH POLE....let me know. The deadline is this Friday the 26th. YOu all have a great Day....and lets see if my BUCS and win on the road again in San Fran. today. Unreal season for this young team. Give the Coach an Extension. Raheem has done an incredible job the last 2 years. He deserves a big pay check! See ya all later!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Its a Calcium build up. Avoid eating high Calcium foods and drink tons of water all the time. As the old saying go once you have 1, their is a good chance you will have more......YOU HOLD TRUE....my Dr. pre-warned me. AS he said, now you know what Labor pain feels like except a little worse. Get Well!

Thanks TampaSpin..My Dr. said the same.It will pass ok...He also said that i need to keep putting the lime in the coconut and drink it all up and give him a call in the mornining (just a joke...LOL...feeling pretty good right now!!)
Quoting Bordonaro:


This La Nina acts a little like last years "Modiki El Nino".

I believe that this La Nina has suffered a nervous breakdown and it needs a good weather psychiatrist!!


I just want our normal weather back... I like the fall....

In Victoria we only have three seasons... Raining, Sunny, Raining... or other wise known as Spring, Summer, and Fall. This winter stuff is for the birds.
Quoting pcola57:

Thanks TampaSpin..My Dr. said the same.It will pass ok...He also said that i need to keep putting the lime in the coconut and drink it all up and give him a call in the mornining(just a joke...LOL...feeling pretty good right now!!)


Been there done that (x3)... don't ever want to do it again
Quoting Orcasystems:


I just want our normal weather back... I like the fall....

In Victoria we only have three seasons... Raining, Sunny, Raining... or other wise known as Spring, Summer, and Fall. This winter stuff is for the birds.

Well, I am not so sure it will be coming back, maybe a break next weekend. And I can understand your frustration, we had that all winter long last year!!!
Quoting Bordonaro:

Well, I am not so sure it will be coming back, maybe a break next weekend. And I can understand your frustration, we had that all winter long last year!!!


Levi gave us a heads up.. its gonna be white out a fair amount this winter.
Quoting pcola57:

My brother just moved to upper Arizona from here in p'cola...culture and weather shock...Maybe his luck will aid in that cut-off low your speaking of..he has that kind of luck..HA!.By the way need a kidney stone free of charge...just shipping and handling?

I hope you feel better! If you have heath insurance your doctor can do a "extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy", where they crush the stone into smaller pieces, making them easier to pass.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Levi gave us a heads up.. its gonna be white out a fair amount this winter.

I know you did not believe me last year when i told you this would occur, I wasn't joking..
Quoting Bordonaro:

I hope you feel better! If you have heath insurance your doctor can do a "extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy", where they crush the stone into smaller pieces, making them easier to pass.

Thanks for that Bordonaro,I went with lipotripsy last stone i had and they had to do it twice as i had a big sucker...bruised my kidney badly..sticking to a'la'natural and good meds this time...going back to get somemore green med now...TTYL WU Blog
Quoting Neapolitan:

It's a "problem" that the current administration has the utter gall to try to enforce highly-regarded environmental protection laws to slow down Big Energy's headlong rush to utterly destroy the planet? Wow, how dare they?! All those people who think that maintaining the long-term health of the Earth for our ancestors should be ashamed of themselves! Don't they know that it's un-American to do anything that might curtail the profits of ExxonMobil?!

Boy oh boy is this country--and this planet--in trouble. Deep, deep trouble...


Uh...

The CCX was a tool of major energy players

There are reasons why Dr. Hansen favors a carbon tax.

And, from a recent University of California Berkley study,

Fear tactics do not work wrt AGW

Or anything else for that matter. Both parties in this country have a fear based agenda... Reagan (whose administration embraced the Montreal Protocal on CFCs) at least recognized that one must be PRO freedom and not ANTI communist.

Both parties in this country are the parties of NO.
Good Afternoon guys....

Well it looks like the hurricane season took away the trolls with it!






with the end of cane season most disappear till early spring
a few hang out but not really many
ive seen docs blog in the dead of winter get 50 posts in 24 hrs
a few times even less than that
best time on the blog is the off season
quiet except for a GW rant every once in a while
when we get some severe or big winter storm
a few will check in
may even get a little busy
till event passes
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
with the end of cane season most disappear till early spring
a few hang out but not really many
ive seen docs blog in the dead of winter get 50 posts in 24 hrs
a few times even less than that
best time on the blog is the off season
quiet except for a GW rant every once in a while
when we get some severe or big winter storm
a few will check in
may even get a little busy
till event passes


Its actually a fun time.. you get some of the regulars on here chatting... and it can be hilarious :)
Orca,

Are those pictures current conditions??

Looks like a long cold winter could be in store for you.
Quoting Dakster:
Orca,

Are those pictures current conditions??

Looks like a long cold winter could be in store for you.


If your looking at the group of 4 together.. they are updated every time you refresh the blog. If your talking about the ones I posted.. they were taken yesterday... and yes it is still cold :(


For any of you Golfers out there.. you might enjoy #485 in the comments section of my blog :)
Winter storm season looks to be really picking up around the 1st for the SE with a dramatic increase in frequency if the GFS general trend is to be trusted.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Winter storm season looks to be really picking up around the 1st for the SE with a dramatic increase in frequency if the GFS general trend is to be trusted.

I noticed that earlier today..what a La Nina!!
A considerable thanksgiving northeaster is shaping up too. I wonder if we will have a winter of "super storms."
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Winter storm season looks to be really picking up around the 1st for the SE with a dramatic increase in frequency if the GFS general trend is to be trusted.


Are you referring to this! Very amplified jet as we enter December.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_384.shtml
it does looks as if the Southern Branch will begin to establish itself over the next week which should allow for some big time storms down the road.






A very thick layer of snow across the Central Plains and Midwest US...warm pool of SSTs pushed by La Nina likely to drift into the Gulf of Carpentaria for the Australian cyclone season.
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Uh...

The CCX was a tool of major energy players

There are reasons why Dr. Hansen favors a carbon tax.

And, from a recent University of California Berkley study,

Fear tactics do not work wrt AGW

Or anything else for that matter. Both parties in this country have a fear based agenda... Reagan (whose administration embraced the Montreal Protocal on CFCs) at least recognized that one must be PRO freedom and not ANTI communist.

Both parties in this country are the parties of NO.


But as long as we have the support of Al Gore, we're sure to let the world know it's the US that's the culprit:

From the Hindustan Times:

"...Nobel Peace Prize winner and champion climate campaigner Al Gore outlined the doom the world is awaiting because of climate change and expressed disappointment at world leaders failing to clinch a treaty to fight the new global terror. Terming the logjam in climate negotiations as a “startling paradox”, the man, whose documentary, The Inconvenient Truth won an Oscar said the year 2010 had seen worst of climate change.

“There was severe drought in Russia and extreme flooding in Pakistan. What more evidence is required for action,” he said at HT Leadership Summit.

His worst fear was that after failure of Copenhagen climate summit the talks where heading towards another “zombie” like the Doha process on World Trade Organization negotiations. Gore’s solution for the problem was taking the issue back to the grassroots and creating a political storm to compel the leaders to react to climate change.

The former (vice) president blamed his own country United States – world second biggest carbon emitter — for failing to legislate a carbon law to curb emissions, resulting in failure of Copenhagen.

See - like I've been saying - it's all the fault of the US, and Al Gore agrees. Can't be the fault of China, they were given a pass at Copenhagen.
Quoting EnergyMoron:

Both parties in this country are the parties of NO.

You can try to claim that if you wish, but that's a false equivalence of the worst kind. Progressives and conservatives are perhaps nowhere so widely separated as they are over the issue of climate change. The former takes the scientific approach: we've warmed the planet, and need to stop before we make it even hotter. The latter takes the opposite approach: the planet is not warming, so doing anything that cuts into the profits of Big Energy is foolish and wrong.

Though you are right about progressives being a Party of No on one count: they say no more more setting environmental and fiscal policy based solely on the greedy desires of ExxonMobil, et al..
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link


Try this link.


Yes, it worked. Thank you.
Its Freakking snowing.... AGAIN!!!
Quoting Neapolitan:

You can try to claim that if you wish, but that's a false equivalence of the worst kind. Progressives and conservatives are perhaps nowhere so widely separated as they are over the issue of climate change. The former takes the scientific approach: we've warmed the planet, and need to stop before we make it even hotter. The latter takes the opposite approach: the planet is not warming, so doing anything that cuts into the profits of Big Energy is foolish and wrong.

Though you are right about progressives being a Party of No on one count: they say no more more setting environmental and fiscal policy based solely on the greedy desires of ExxonMobil, et al..
Once you cut into the big energy profits, the cuts bleed bigger for us poor peoples lively hood. ALL Polticians and Big Energy still win and the middle class and poor folks get screwed. Spin it any way you want, but it ends up the same way everytime. As far as GW, Im not God and Im not a scientist, but I do know this earth will end when it is suppossed to end.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Its Freakking snowing.... AGAIN!!!
Will you stop crying. You live like ten miles from the north pole. Your blood is probably the consistency of concrete after all these centuries..
Quoting scott39:
As far as GW, Im not God and Im not a scientist, but I do know this earth will end when it is suppossed to end.

For those who are under the assumption that mankind can't alter the environment much in any meaningful and permanent or semi-permanent way, I'd direct you look at Haiti, or Chernobyl, or the Amazon, or the passenger pigeon, or the wild buffalo, or mountaintop-removal mining, or fracking, or...
The CFL western Conference semi final is being played right now in Calgary (uncovered stadium)

Current Weather Updated: Sun, Nov. 21, 2010,
Calgary, AB Light snow

-17°C

Light snow

* Feels Like: -25
* Wind: N 13km/h
* Sunrise: 8:02
* Sunset: 16:40

* Relative Humidity: 71%
* Pressure: 101.91 kPa
* Visibility: 11.0 km
* Ceiling: 3600 ft

Quoting Neapolitan:

For those who are under the assumption that mankind can't alter the environment much in any meaningful and permanent or semi-permanent way, I'd direct you look at Haiti, or Chernobyl, or the Amazon, or the passenger pigeon, or the wild buffalo, or mountaintop-removal mining, or fracking, or...


Agree and disagree
I just finished watching a couple shows about the arctic ice pack. Even the GW supporters admit, the lack of ice is attributed to the change in ocean and upper air currents.

If this is a fact, as they themselves admit... why do they insist on using the icepack as an example of 'MAN MADE' climate change?
Quoting hydrus:
Will you stop crying. You live like ten miles from the north pole. Your blood is probably the consistency of concrete after all these centuries..
where do you live hydrus what state
Quoting Orcasystems:


Agree and disagree
I just finished watching a couple shows about the arctic ice pack. Even the GW supporters admit, the lack of ice is attributed to the change in ocean and upper air currents.

If this is a fact, as they themselves admit... why do they insist on using the icepack as an example of 'MAN MADE' climate change?

I'm not sure who you mean by "the GW supporters"; the majority of climate scientists believe the warming atmosphere is causing a rapid decline in arctic sea ice coverage. (Antarctic sea ice is thinning in some areas, thickening in others, but scientists believe those, too, are caused by warming.)

So far as "mad-made", goes, while not as many scientists believe in AGW in particular as are convinced of GW in general, more and more are coming around all the time.

IOW: can you please provide some context? That is, what were the shows, who produced them, and who are the GW supporters of whom you speak?
Quoting Neapolitan:br / watch the link

faster and faster we are going

Link
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
where do you live hydrus what state
I live in Florida (S.W.) and in Tennessee(middle). I was only joking around when I typed post#296..Please do not be angry...
Quoting hydrus:
I live in Florida (S.W.) and in Tennessee(middle). I was only joking around when I typed post#296..Please do not be angry...
iam not angry i was just wondering what state you were in
305. beell
Do we really have room for 50 million wild migratory bison? And is their management related to AGW?
Quoting hydrus:
I live in Florida (S.W.) and in Tennessee(middle). I was only joking around when I typed post#296..Please do not be angry...


hey man,

how you doing?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam not angry i was just wondering what state you were in
My bad...I had your post mixed up with Orca,s..;0
Quoting tornadodude:


hey man,

how you doing?
Wuzup T-Dude..Some interesting weather coming.?..Maybe..Possibly...
Quoting hydrus:
Wuzup T-Dude..Some interesting weather coming.?..Maybe..Possibly...


yeah looks interesting,

watching the Colts game,


slim chance of a little severe weather the next couple of days
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah looks interesting,

watching the Colts game,


slim chance of a little severe weather the next couple of days
They are talking about the possibility of convection with the storm we are supposed to get tomorrow. Thundersnowstorms are pretty cool.:)
Quoting scott39:
Once you cut into the big energy profits, the cuts bleed bigger for us poor peoples lively hood. ALL Polticians and Big Energy still win and the middle class and poor folks get screwed. Spin it any way you want, but it ends up the same way everytime. As far as GW, Im not God and Im not a scientist, but I do know this earth will end when it is suppossed to end.

Thanks for saying that, God created this earth and He will not let it be destroyed.
Quoting Neapolitan:

I'm not sure who you mean by "the GW supporters"; the majority of climate scientists believe the warming atmosphere is causing a rapid decline in arctic sea ice coverage. (Antarctic sea ice is thinning in some areas, thickening in others, but scientists believe those, too, are caused by warming.)

So far as "mad-made", goes, while not as many scientists believe in AGW in particular as are convinced of GW in general, more and more are coming around all the time.

IOW: can you please provide some context? That is, what were the shows, who produced them, and who are the GW supporters of whom you speak?


I am trying to find the names again (TV programming does not go back in time) One was about the polar bears and loss of habitat, and the other was more specific on the loss of the ice sheet(mostly Norwegian content and facts)
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
They are talking about the possibility of convection with the storm we are supposed to get tomorrow. Thundersnowstorms are pretty cool.:)


I love thundersnow!
Quoting hydrus:
I live in Florida (S.W.) and in Tennessee(middle). I was only joking around when I typed post#296..Please do not be angry...


They are basically the same state aren't they.. oh and don't forget Alabama. :)
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah looks interesting,

watching the Colts game,


slim chance of a little severe weather the next couple of days
Lol..you sound like an old man when you post like that..:) Had a huge dinner at church today, so I figured I would do some studying on the computer and work out on my new weight set..Early Christmas present...It is suppose to be very wet here and then get cold.
Quoting hydrus:
Lol..you sound like an old man when you post like that..:) Had a huge dinner at church today, so I figured I would do some studying on the computer and work out on my new weight set..Early Christmas present...It is suppose to be very wet here and then get cold.


haha thanks :PP

and thats pretty cool, gotta love something new to mess with ha

Yeah gonna be a chilly wet Thanksgiving
That was a terrible interception! You can't make that mistake at this point in the game.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
That was a terrible interception! You can't make that mistake at this point in the game.


Manning choked pretty badly in this game, 3 picks, one led to a field goal, another to end the game
Quoting Orcasystems:


They are basically the same state aren't they.. oh and don't forget Alabama. :)
Florida and Alabama have the same amount of counties. All three states have a huge amount of American Indian history associated with them. There are a lot of similarities with these states demographics.Geographically, Florida is very different from Alabama and Tennessee. Northern Alabama encompasses part of the Cumberland Plateau where I live..I have to tell you it is beautiful here on the plateau and where I grew up in Florida(Captiva Island). I am grateful my parents moved there when I was young.
Quoting hydrus:
Florida and Alabama have the same amount of counties. All three states have a huge amount of American Indian history associated with them. There are a lot of similarities with these states demographics.Geographically, Florida is very different from Alabama and Tennessee. Northern Alabama encompasses part of the Cumberland Plateau where I live..I have to tell you it is beautiful here on the plateau and where I grew up in Florida(Captiva Island). I am grateful my parents moved there when I was young.


ROFL.. I sort of meant Redneck Central :)

I know BeachFoxx gets a mite perturbed when I mix them all together.
Quoting Orcasystems:


:)

.
hey big fish i have some good news for ya as things are at the moment and with a storm coming from the west looks as if grt lakes region may see there first significant LES starting on thursday and running for a few days at the present time i would say 30 to 60 cm of snow could fall in snow belts off the grt lakes starting at the end of thursday and running us into the weekend at the end of the week

A floodwall on the National Mall?

Published: Sunday, November 21, 2010, 4:25 PM
The Washington Post The Washington Post



Eighty thousand cubic yards of dirt. Thirty steel girders. An 8-foot-high concrete wall.
national-mall-flooding-rendering.jpgView full sizeArmy Corps of Engineers renderingThe Army Corps of Engineers plans to erect a barrier to protect downtown Washington and the National Mall from flooding during a Hurricane Katrina-sized storm. Construction on the barrier will soon be under way.

All to hold back floodwaters that may, or may not, surge across the Mall in the next century or so.
5Share
9 Comments

But in the apocalyptic, post-Hurricane Katrina world, no chances can be taken.

So government officials announced this week that work is about to start on a $9 million flood-control project that will alter the landscape of the Mall west of the Washington Monument to protect it, and part of Washington, from potential catastrophe.

The project will create a levee that would be erected across 17th Street below Constitution Avenue in the event of a huge flood.

It calls for the construction of large earthen berms, using tons of dirt, and the 8-foot walls on both sides of 17th Street.

It also will require engineers to sink a series of caissons 30 feet deep into the surface of 17th Street, where girders could be placed to support temporary panels to block floodwater.

Work is to begin next month and conclude next summer.

The project aims to protect large sections of downtown Washington from extensive river flooding, and to keep those sections from being declared a flood zone, which could require property owners to buy flood insurance. Such insurance runs about $1,500 a year, officials said.

The project is the result of the Federal Emergency Management Agency's nationwide review of flood zone maps after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans and parts of the Gulf Coast in 2005.

When FEMA reviewed Washington's flood zones, it concluded that existing plans to use sandbags and jersey barriers to block floodwaters flowing north on 17th Street from the Potomac River and the Tidal Basin were inadequate.

FEMA foresaw a scenario in which a flood could inundate a huge crescent of downtown Washington from 17th Street and Constitution Avenue east to the Capitol and south toward Fort McNair.

And it proposed placing the area - including Federal Triangle, the east end of the Mall, and several Smithsonian museums - in the 100-year flood zone unless a better flood-prevention system was devised.

"It became necessary for us to finally protect this Mall with something other than sandbags," Washington, D.C., Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton, D, said at this week's announcement.

Working together, the city, the Army Corps of Engineers, the National Park Service and other agencies came up with the idea for a robust flood barrier at a "choke point" on 17th Street.

It is called a "post and panel" system, officials said. In the event of a flood, girders would be erected temporarily and eight-foot-tall aluminum panels assembled between the girders to block the surging water.

Although the project is deemed necessary, Norton expressed some dismay.

"I regret that, however minor, any structure is on this land," she said. "The notion of breaking this landscape is really heartbreaking to me and should be to all who value what the Mall stands for. But . . . there was nothing else to do."

By Michael E. Ruane, The Washington Post
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey big fish i have some good news for ya as things are at the moment and with a storm coming from the west looks as if grt lakes region may see there first significant LES starting on thursday and running for a few days at the present time i would say 30 to 60 cm of snow could fall in snow belts off the grt lakes starting at the end of thursday and running us into the weekend at the end of the week


Thats what I was saying earlier today... or at least I was hoping for :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFL.. I sort of meant Redneck Central :)

I know BeachFoxx gets a mite perturbed when I mix them all together.
It is very interesting everywhere I have traveled..Red Necks are EVERYWHERE..!!!..
Quoting Orcasystems:


Thats what I was saying earlier today... or at least I was hoping for :)
looks like you may get your wish only good part about it iam not in a snowbelt area so i will hopefully see nothing but maybe a dusting of the white stuff 5 to 10 as it normally dumps heavy to our north
Quoting charlestonscnanny:

Thanks for saying that, God created this earth and He will not let it be destroyed.

Oh, would but that were true...
Complete Update

Not much happening out there.






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Hi Y'all hope everyone is feeling the holiday coming up and taking appropriate measures.

Quoting Neapolitan:

For those who are under the assumption that mankind can't alter the environment much in any meaningful and permanent or semi-permanent way, I'd direct you look at Haiti, or Chernobyl, or the Amazon, or the passenger pigeon, or the wild buffalo, or mountaintop-removal mining, or fracking, or...
Why do you cherry pick from my Quote? It takes away from the meaning of my comment. And I never said man couldnt have an influence on the earth, positive or negative. I said that we dont have a choice when it ends! No matter how many laws we make, to regulate mans immoralities against earth. It will never stop the END of the earth as you and I know it. For that to have any meaning, you have to Believe in God.
Quoting scott39:
Why do you cherry pick from my Quote? It takes away from the meaning of my comment. And I never said man couldnt have an influence on the earth, positive or negative. I said that we dont have a choice when it ends! No matter how many laws we make, to regulate mans immoralities against earth. It will never stop the END of the earth as you and I know it. For that to have any meaning, you have to Believe in God.


I have observed that people will cite God or Woman's Prerogative when irrational.


Quoting Chicklit:


I have observed that people will cite God or Woman's Prerogative when irrational.


Explain, please.
Quoting Chicklit:


I have observed that people will cite God or Woman's Prerogative when irrational.
Im not sure if your calling me irrational or not?LOL
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:




Explain, please.


Actually, they don't even claim it;
they don't have to - it's self-evident.
Quoting Chicklit:


I have observed that people will cite God or Woman's Prerogative when irrational.
Quoting Chicklit:


I have observed that people will cite God or Woman's Prerogative when irrational.
Irrational to what?
Is it safe to come in?
Quoting Chicklit:


Actually, they don't even claim it;
they don't have to - it's self-evident.


I'm trying hard to not be obtuse. Perhaps I am not understanding "they".
and now we bring God, feminism, and whatever else into the debate.

on that note, I'm out

have a good one,
behave,

and respect other people's opinions (:
Quoting doorman79:
Is it safe to come in?
Cmon In!
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I'm trying hard to not be obtuse. Perhaps I am not understanding "they".
Quoting Chicklit:


Actually, they don't even claim it;
they don't have to - it's self-evident.


Wasn't that a quote from Abe Lincoln! just kidding! What we talking bout hmmmm lol!
Quoting doorman79:
Is it safe to come in?



Is it ever "safe"?
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Is it ever "safe"?


Yea I don't get my feathers ruffled easy!
Quoting doorman79:


Wasn't that a quote from Abe Lincoln! just kidding! What we talking bout hmmmm lol!
Speaking of Abe Lincoln, Stephen Spillberg is making a movie about him, and Daniel Day Lewis is playing the part.

"We hold these truths to be self-evident". credit: our Founding Fathers.
344. beell
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I'm trying hard to not be obtuse...


Watch your fat intake, excercise, and drink plenty of water and you should be fine.
I was looking through the notable October events in the entry. Many 50 year or more events. Lot of flooding. Well more than 1 million people evacuated. These tornado path pic was worth seeing..

Quoting Skyepony:
I was looking through the notable October events in the entry. Many 50 year or more events. Lot of flooding. Well more than 1 million people evacuated. These tornado path pic was worth seeing..



that's pretty bizarre
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:

"We hold these truths to be self-evident". credit: our Founding Fathers.


Tuchie!

Or however you spell it lol

Quoting Neapolitan:

Oh, would but that were true...
You do not know your Bible. He will remake the universe and the earth.

Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I'm trying hard to not be obtuse. Perhaps I am not understanding "they".


They = the irrational ones, is what I think she meant.
If you want to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first create the universe.

Carl Sagan

US astronomer & popularizer of astronomy (1934 - 1996)

352. xcool
hihi



Nice graphic, Skye.

Obtuse should not be confused with obese. lol
354. xcool
wintry precipitation. 3 run in row gfs modelss
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Nice graphic, Skye.

Obtuse should not be confused with obese. lol


Operating.
356. beell
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Nice graphic, Skye.

Obtuse should not be confused with obese. lol


oh. then please forgive my obesity!
;-)
Quoting xcool:
wintry precipitation. 3 run in row gfs modelss
when
& where?
358. xcool
from southeast to nola .maybee
Quoting Patrap:
If you want to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first create the universe.

Carl Sagan

US astronomer & popularizer of astronomy (1934 - 1996)



Hey Pat! I've read many of Carl's books. The world is poorer, for his absence.
Quoting beell:


oh. then please forgive my obesity!
;-)


Or verbosity. LMAO! Nice.
361. xcool
i'm wait for new model runs so i being back later ;))
Quoting Patrap:
If you want to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first create the universe.

Carl Sagan

US astronomer & popularizer of astronomy (1934 - 1996)



Hey Pat,

Started Thanksgiving with Chicken, andoulle and shrimp gumbo! With a side of fried alligator and frog legs! Yum!
Should have thought to make the sweet potato pie! lol
Quoting mossyhead:
You do not know your Bible. He will remake the universe and the earth.

Uh...it took four years of theological seminary to convince me otherwise. ;-)
Quoting Patrap:
Carl Sagan

US astronomer & popularizer of astronomy (1934 - 1996)


...and lifelong agnostic.

Sure do miss him...
does anyone know how to make a time-lapsed video? I have one that I wanted to be made into one, but just not sure how to do it
362 doorman79 "...With a side of fried alligator and frog legs!"

Darn*you. Gone for years without thinkin' about 'em, and now I'm feelin' deprived.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


"Preserve and cherish the pale blue dot." Seems we humans have a hard time doing that.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
The two tone triple talk on that !!
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


"Preserve and cherish the pale blue dot." Seems we humans have a hard time doing that.



Amen, my friend.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Hey Pat! I've read many of Carl's books. The world is poorer, for his absence.


Carl was one of a Kind and a great teacher
Quoting doorman79:


Hey Pat,

Started Thanksgiving with Chicken, andoulle and shrimp gumbo! With a side of fried alligator and frog legs! Yum!


Pass da tabasco and into the week we go.


Quoting xcool:
wintry precipitation. 3 run in row gfs modelss
Hey Xcool! Where
Quoting Patrap:


Carl was one of a Kind and a great teacher


Indeed! I especially liked his book with Ann Druyan, Comet. True visionaries.
Quoting doorman79:


Yea I don't get my feathers ruffled easy!


+1000


Good night folks.
Quoting Patrap:


Carl was one of a Kind and a great teacher


The book Cosmos was great! The show, was seasoning on top of it........ Here is the beginning......Start here with the link, very good stuff!

http://www.hulu.com/cosmos

And a later one :)

Quoting Neapolitan:

...and lifelong agnostic.

Sure do miss him...
Have you ever heard of a Christian Agnostic follower? An Author by the name of Leslie D. WEATHERhead wrote a book about it.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Hey Pat! I've read many of Carl's books. The world is poorer, for his absence.


This was a very good read - "The demon-haunted world: science as a candle in the dark" - by Carl Sagan as well as "Cosmos".
Cmc model south of Baja California.... Oh no.... Still showing something there???

howdy guys
Quoting tornadodude:
howdy guys


Howdy, Dude!
Quoting tornadodude:
howdy guys


Hey. Did you want to make a time lapse video out of a regular video? If so, it seems that would take some kind of editing equipment, or software.
Quoting tornadodude:
does anyone know how to make a time-lapsed video? I have one that I wanted to be made into one, but just not sure how to do it


Yes, you know my other addresses. I would be happy to help.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Howdy, Dude!


How you doing?

Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Hey. Did you want to make a time lapse video out of a regular video? If so, it seems that would take some kind of editing equipment, or software.


I'll send it to OSS, thanks (:

Quoting Ossqss:


Yes, you know my other addresses. I would be happy to help.


Ha well can you send me a PM with your other address please? thanks (:
Quoting tornadodude:
does anyone know how to make a time-lapsed video? I have one that I wanted to be made into one, but just not sure how to do it


Many links available; here is one

Link
Quoting tornadodude:


How you doing?



I'll send it to OSS, thanks (:



Ha well can you send me a PM with your other address please? thanks (:


Doing great.

How is the StormTrooper coming?
Quoting sunlinepr:


Many links available; here is one

Link


Thanks!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Doing great.

How is the StormTrooper coming?


It's getting there, will purchase GRLEVEL3 and microsoft streets and trips 2011 in in two weeks, thats a big start
Quoting tornadodude:
does anyone know how to make a time-lapsed video? I have one that I wanted to be made into one, but just not sure how to do it


How to Make Time-lapse Video – Ultimate Guide


Link
Quoting tornadodude:


It's getting there, will purchase GRLEVEL3 and microsoft streets and trips 2011 in in two weeks, thats a big start


Dude, you can try it before you buy it. Microsoft has a 60 day trial version. This will be a good way to ensure that it is what you wanted. You can buy it any time during the 60 days.

http://www.microsoft.com/streets/en-us/Trial.aspx
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Dude, you can try it before you buy it. Microsoft has a 60 day trial version. This will be a good way to ensure that it is what you wanted. You can buy it any time during the 60 days.

http://www.microsoft.com/streets/en-us/Trial.aspx


Yeah I realize I can do that, but I had a previous version of it before, and really liked it. Also it will sync up with GRLEVEL3 so that I have GPS and radar data combined
Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah I realize I can do that, but I had a previous version of it before, and really liked it. Also it will sync up with GRLEVEL3 so that I have GPS and radar data combined


Sounds like it have it all "mapped out" already. ;-) You will upload pics when it is done?
Any of the cold weather expect to reach Fla? Thx.
Quoting foggymyst:
Any of the cold weather expect to reach Fla? Thx.


Yup... snow next week :P

j/k
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Sounds like it have it all "mapped out" already. ;-) You will upload pics when it is done?


Definitely will

I have a lot of work to do for this coming season, but with what I have, I will be able to chase storms as well as intercept hurricanes.

322 Patrap
A floodwall on the National Mall?
Sunday, November 21, 2010, 4:25 PM
The Washington Post The Washington Post
Eighty thousand cubic yards of dirt. Thirty steel girders. An 8-foot-high concrete wall.
The Army Corps of Engineers plans to erect a barrier to protect downtown Washington and the National Mall from flooding during a Hurricane Katrina-sized storm. Construction on the barrier will soon be under way.
All to hold back floodwaters that may, or may not, surge across the Mall in the next century or so.
Yeesh, have they already forgotten HurricaneIsabel???

It won't take anything near a Katrina(9metre)surge to flood out the NationalMall.
DC was built where it is mostly cuz there was a sea-level swamp that nobody wanted. Portions of the NationalMall would already be flooded during normal high tides if it weren't for the embankment created to separate it from the tidal basin.
Aww thanks Orca! :) Always sending me the best!
Quoting foggymyst:
Aww thanks Orca! :) Always sending me the best!


For you dear.. almost anything :)
Snow even :)
Quoting tornadodude:


Definitely will

I have a lot of work to do for this coming season, but with what I have, I will be able to chase storms as well as intercept hurricanes.



Well, if you are going to be intercepting hurricanes in it, I hope that I do not see it for the first time while you are intercepting a hurricane. Alicia, Allison, Rita and Ike will do me for awhile.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Well, if you are going to be intercepting hurricanes in it, I hope that I do not see it for the first time while you are intercepting a hurricane. Alicia, Allison, Rita and Ike will do me for awhile.


Yeah, I dont wish bad weather on anyone, but it's going to happen, so why not document it?
Interesting...

Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah, I dont wish bad weather on anyone, but it's going to happen, so why not document it?


I agree. The work that you do has life saving posibilities. I admire your work and courage. If only I was a younger man! Well, from what I hear, I must be a 100 years younger than Grothar. LOL

My memories of these storms have been well documented. I lost my house and belongings in Rita. I lost three ridge row shingles from a tree limb in Ike. What a difference new construction makes! I had the new one built stronger than the old one!
Quoting tornadodude:
Interesting...



Looks like they covered a lot of territory in a short time. 22 minute time lapse.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I agree. The work that you do has life saving posibilities. I admire your work and courage. If only I was a younger man! Well, from what I hear, I must be a 100 years younger than Grothar. LOL

My memories of these storms have been well documented. I lost my house and belongings in Rita. I lost three ridge row shingles from a tree limb in Ike. What a difference new construction makes! I had the new one built stronger than the old one!


haha yeah, Grothar has to be getting up there (;

and im sorry about your loss, but glad you rebuilt and glad to see its storm worthy


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0859 PM CST SUN NOV 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...SERN MT...W-CNTRL/NWRN SD...FAR SWRN ND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 220259Z - 220900Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES/HR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NERN WY AND W-CNTRL SD BY 06Z...AND THEN SPREAD NWD INTO NWRN
SD...SERN MT AND FAR SWRN ND BY 09Z.

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW A S/W TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN...WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS/INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
EVIDENT DOWNSTREAM OVER WY. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE
NIGHT...FOCUSING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DCVA AND 600-700 MB WAA OVER
THE DISCUSSION AREA. DESPITE A SOMEWHAT DRY 00Z SOUNDING FROM
RAP...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOISTEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS ASCENT
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES JUXTAPOSED WITH A ZONE OF STRONG LIFT THROUGH A DEEPLY
SATURATED LAYER...AS WELL AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR APPEAR
PROBABLE. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS INITIALLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NERN
WY AND W-CNTRL SD BY 06Z. THE HEAVY SNOW IS THEN FORECAST TO SPREAD
NWD INTO NWRN SD AND ADJACENT SERN MT/FAR SWRN ND...WITH RATES
PEAKING NEAR 2 IN/HR DURING 06-09Z.


..GARNER.. 11/22/2010


ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON 44770061 43710398 43770573 44400666 45540685 46620516
46650176 45940030 44770061
Quoting tornadodude:


haha yeah, Grothar has to be getting up there (;

and im sorry about your loss, but glad you rebuilt and glad to see its storm worthy


Thanks, man. All ended well.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Thanks, man. All ended well.


thats a good thing for sure
Quoting tornadodude:


thats a good thing for sure


Calling it a night. The computer network will be calling in the morning. Take care and keep up the great work!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Calling it a night. The computer network will be calling in the morning. Take care and keep up the great work!


have a good one!
Looks like the first widespread (albeit probably light accumulation) snow in the northeast will be friday-saturday. Can't wait! (Since it's so cold, we should have snow.
Weather channel image doesnt work -_- how about a link?
Link
off to bed, have a goodnight everyone
Complete Update

New Overlays :)






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Winter Storm Warning is now in effect until 11 PM MST Tuesday.


* Snow accumulations... an additional 1 to 2 feet of snow is likely
through Tuesday night below 7000 feet. An additional 1 to 3
feet of snow is likely above 7000 feet through Tuesday night


okay talk about the warmest weather and we are gonna have a mother of a winter up here!
AND I already have about 2 feet in the yard
..... in mountains of Teton Valley Idaho
Quoting szqrn1:
AND I already have about 2 feet in the yard
..... in mountains of Teton Valley Idaho


Yikes, that's a lotta snow. More than usual for this time of year?
Link

More ammunition for the "I don't believe in GW but I can't do anything about it anyway so God will have to clean up our mess" crowd.
47 years ago today:

any more development coming this season?
NWS OF MELBOURNE

It looks as if the cool down for FL is gone. Typical La-Nina in C and S FL and that is 80 degrees everyday pretty much all Winter.

EXTENDED PD OF SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP MAX/MIN TEMPS
ABV CLIMO THRU SAT...L/M80S AND L/M60S RESPECTIVELY. AS A RESULT...
THE 22/04Z EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
THE 21/04Z SOLUTION WRT THE POST FRONTAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ARE A
SOLID 10F DEG WARMER ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...4-7F DEG
WARMER ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. GIVEN THE LA NINA PATTERN
SO FAR THIS SEASON...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE LATEST SOLUTION
PANS OUT.
Imagine the Gulf temps and Atlantic around FL come next Hurricane season with a warm winter being predicted. Can't even imagine the heat energy that will be in place by then. Could be a dangerous situation for potential hurricane impacts for FL and surrounding areas.
Record cold temps possible in Nevada:
http://www.rgj.com/article/20101122/NEWS/11220320/1321
I feel sorry for the northern US as they are in for one hell of a brutal winter.
Not much of a severe threat today, but I do have a 2% tornado probability

While everyone is shivering up north later this week I'm hitting the beach for a few days in New Smyrna Beach. Temps are expected to be in the 80's thru Saturday now as all the models expect the GFS has pushed back the arrival of the front.