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Globe has 3rd consecutive warmest month on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2010

The globe recorded its warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The May temperature anomaly of 0.69°C (1.24°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.06°C. We've now had three consecutive warmest months on record, the first time that has happened since 1998. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated May 2010 as the warmest May on record, tied with May 1998. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - May, as the warmest such period on record, and the last 12-month period (June 2009 - May 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. May 2010 global ocean temperatures were the second warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in May, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from May 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Asia and Southeast Asia record their hottest temperatures in history
The mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan, on May 26. Not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. The evidence for this record is detailed in a post I made earlier this month. The Pakistan heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi. Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

An average May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 50th coldest (66th warmest) May in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Idaho had its second coolest May on record, while it was Montana's fourth coolest, Wyoming's and Oregon's seventh coolest, Utah's eighth, California's ninth, and Nevada's tenth coolest such period. Rhode Island observed its second warmest May on record and Florida tied for its second warmest. Other states much warmer than normal during May included: Louisiana (4th warmest), Massachusetts (5th warmest), Connecticut (6th warmest), New Hampshire (7th warmest), Mississippi and New York (each 8th warmest), and New Jersey (9th warmest).

NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March-May) was about 5 percent higher than average. The CEI measures the prevalence of several types of climate extremes (like record or near-record warmth, dry spells, or rainy periods). Factors contributing to spring's elevated values: widespread (2-3 times larger than average) coverage of anomalously warm daily max and min temperatures, and above-average extent of extreme one-day precipitation events. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, tornadic activity in May was near normal with 290 preliminary tornado reports.

U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., May 2010 ranked as the 35th wettest May in the 116-year record. The state of Washington had its third wettest May on record and extreme precipitation events in Tennessee and Kentucky contributed to their sixth and seventh wettest such period, respectively. It was the tenth wettest May in North Dakota. At the end of May, approximately 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is a very low amount of drought for the U.S.

La Niña likely by July
El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling to 0.50°C below average by June 14, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is reporting that this number was 0.31°C below average (as of June 13.) Since La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 0.50°C below average, we are right at the threshold of a La Niña. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, and it is likely that a full-fledged La Niña will emerge by July. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation."

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and the emergence of La Niña will likely occur by July. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, suggest that a much more active Atlantic hurricane season that usual likely in 2010. The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was about 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20.


Figure 2. Ice extent through June 15, 2010 in the Arctic, compared to the record low years of 2006 and 2007. Record low Arctic ice extent began about June 1, and has remained at record low extent for the first half of June. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic sea ice extent reaches a record low at end of May
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in May 2010 was the 9th lowest since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice extent was near average at the beginning of May, but thanks to the fastest rate of decline ever observed during the month of May (50% faster than average), ice extent reached a record low by the end of May. Ice extent has remained at record low levels throughout the first half of June, as well. Ice volume was also at a record low at the end of May, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center, due to the fact the Arctic is now dominated by thin first and second-year ice.

Record low Northern Hemisphere snow extent in May
For the second consecutive month, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported that the snow cover footprint over North America was the smallest on record for the month. A record-small snow footprint was also observed over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

The Atlantic is quiet
The 92L low pressure system, now located about 300 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, has been completely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, and is no longer a threat to develop. The remnants of 92L, which are currently kicking up some strong thunderstorms due to interaction with an upper-level trough of low pressure, will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands tonight through Friday, and into Puerto Rico Friday night through Saturday. On Sunday, the disturbance could bring heavy rains to northern Haiti. The earthquake zone in southern Haiti may also receive heavy enough rains to be of concern for the 1.5 million people living in tents and under tarps.

None of the reliable computer models is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though the GFS model was suggesting a weak development moving through the southern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Sunday, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east to Panama City, Florida, and oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has launched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Friday.

Jeff Masters
Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island
Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island
Tar & Oil from the DWH spill spoil our beaches - it hit shoreline about 11:30 am CST today

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

---
2502. IKE
Looks like the center is going to go south of PR unless it turns more WNW. Maybe clips southern DR/Haiti or even goes south of there.
Quoting pottery:

I could send you an annoying Rooster with an annoying Crow!
Would that help?


Sounds like a 2 for one sale.
gez i am going over to Jamaica on Sat and return GCM on thurs i wonder what 92L has in store for me??? cus cus cus words i dont think any one wants to hear "bleep bleep"
2505. WxLogic
92L still fighting... but it has been lucky enough to be on the outer edge of a retreating shear which has been helping it maintain convection all this time.

If 92L is indeed strong enough, it will then be able to generate its own convection instead of relying on the outflow flow being generated by being on the SE quadrant of the retreating TUTT. For now it appears that not even with DMAX it was able maintain/generate its own convection in the last couple hours.
Quoting IKE:
I've seen estimates of possibly 23...up to 27 named storms. Bastardi is now picking 18-21. Storms west of 55W...seventeen!

Day 18 of 183 day season...0-0-0.

It has to start soon.
it will and when it does you will beg it to stop
2507. SLU
Quoting IKE:
I've seen estimates of possibly 23...up to 27 named storms. Bastardi is now picking 18-21. Storms west of 55W...seventeen!

Day 18 of 183 day season...0-0-0.

It has to start soon.


Translating this to English pretty much means that he thinks that only ONE storm will recurve east of 55W and that the others will track west of 55W. Amazing. It really is.

ECMWF - 23
UKMET - 20 (July - November)
CSU - 18
TSR - 18
ACCUWEATHER - 18 - 21
NOAA - 14 - 23
who else?

1950 - 2000 Average: 10.6

When this season really gets going ... no one's gonna be able to stop it.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Morning All. Shall I say POOF.



Latest model runs. I see the GFDL and HWRF & TCVN are back, lol.




That's the second time the BAMS has pointed at me.
2510. IKE
2511. msphar
Anybody have a synopsis of what is happening in the islands ? I am just waking up here and much removed from the region, so no sense for what is going on...

My focus = is Eastern Puerto Rico far enough North to be unaffected now ???
2512. pottery
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Sounds like a 2 for one sale.

Well, I'm getting desperate.
I will throw in a Hen...
2513. IKE
Quoting msphar:
Anybody have a synopsis of what is happening in the islands ? I am just waking up here and much removed from the region, so no sense for what is going on...

My focus = is Eastern Puerto Rico far enough North to be unaffected now ???


Nope...no way.
Well, I t hink those models suck.

The CoC is clearly just now broken past the islands to the west, which you can definitely see on LSU's 10:45 product and the RAMMB products. So why are the models initialized like 200 miles back to the east?
Quoting SLU:


Translating this to English pretty much means that he thinks that only ONE storm will recurve east of 55W and that the others will track west of 55W. Amazing. It really is.

ECMWF - 23
UKMET - 20 (July - November)
CSU - 18
TSR - 18
ACCUWEATHER - 18 - 21
NOAA - 14 - 23
who else?

1950 - 2000 Average: 10.6

When this season really gets going ... no one's gonna be able to stop it.


KOTG ATLANTIC SEASON NUMBER OUTLOOK posted april 15 2010

TOTAL STORMS 21 TO 23
TOTAL HURRICANES 11 TO 14
TOTAL MAJORS 5 TO 7
TOTAL CAT 5's 1 TO 3

2520. SLU
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


KOTG ATLANTIC SEASON NUMBER OUTLOOK posted april 15 2010

TOTAL STORMS 21 TO 23
TOTAL HURRICANES 11 TO 14
TOTAL MAJORS 5 TO 7
TOTAL CAT 5's 1 TO 3



I believe we may see multiple cat 5's especially in the Western Caribbean with that oceanic heat potential in the Caribbean sea.
Still 20%.
2522. pottery
Quoting StormW:


StormW from June 01, 2010:

Total Named Storms: 17-19
Hurricanes: 9-11
Intense Hurricanes: 4-5

WOW!!
2523. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
Ike how did we get two different maps with the same time/date? At least it looks that way.


I zoomed in.
Quoting DestinJeff:
llc might dip as far as 15N sometime today ...
no its heading to 16n66w to lay south of PR from there it begins
2525. pottery
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Still 20%.

Well, they have been mostly wrong with every other forecast with 92L...
2526. WxLogic
Still sticking with my April 12 Forecast:

18 Tropical Storm(s)
12 Hurricane(s)
7 Major Hurricane(s)
2527. IKE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT


image centred at 16n/66w
Wow. See that thing pop? Literally within one frame...
504

WHXX01 KWBC 180622

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0622 UTC FRI JUN 18 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100618 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100618 0600 100618 1800 100619 0600 100619 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.1N 60.6W 16.7N 63.5W 16.9N 66.5W 17.5N 69.3W

BAMD 16.1N 60.6W 16.5N 61.9W 16.8N 63.2W 17.0N 64.6W

BAMM 16.1N 60.6W 16.6N 62.7W 17.1N 64.8W 17.4N 66.8W

LBAR 16.1N 60.6W 16.3N 62.7W 16.8N 65.3W 17.2N 68.1W

SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS

DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100620 0600 100621 0600 100622 0600 100623 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.4N 71.8W 17.8N 76.6W 17.9N 80.7W 17.9N 83.9W

BAMD 17.2N 66.2W 18.4N 69.1W 20.3N 72.2W 22.4N 75.2W

BAMM 17.6N 68.8W 18.3N 72.2W 19.4N 75.3W 21.1N 78.2W

LBAR 17.8N 70.9W 19.5N 75.5W 22.2N 79.0W 23.5N 81.3W

SHIP 31KTS 36KTS 45KTS 55KTS

DSHP 31KTS 29KTS 41KTS 33KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 60.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT

LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 58.3W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 55.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


2533. SLU
CSU is predicting an Accumulated Cyclone Index of 55 for the Caribbean alone. To put that into persective:

2004 - 51
2005 - 58
2007 - 47
2010 - 55?








All three seasons had Caribbean Cat. 5 hurricanes. The water is even warmer this year. We are definitely in for some major activity in the Caribbean this year.
2534. IKE
Miami,FL. extended....

"THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXISTS IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...AS THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY NEXT WEEK...AS A PAIR
OF UPPER LOWS MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL SET
UP A STRONGER/DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...ALLOWING
FOR A CONTINUAL INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY AT
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND DURING THE AFTERNOONS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE FURTHER
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WELL-
DEFINED INVERTED TROUGH PASSING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF RICH/TROPICAL MOISTURE.
WILL INCREASE
POPS/CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT AWAIT MORE CONSISTENCY
IN MODELS BEFORE ADDRESSING HEAVY RAINFALL/SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WHICH COULD OCCUR WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM."


Key West,FL. extended....

"LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ITS THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH DURING THE
EXTENDED TEMPORAL PERIOD...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEM ARE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MAINTAINING THE INTEGRITY OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION NEAR OUR LONGITUDE AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE KEEPS THIS
SYSTEM AS AN OPEN AND CLANDESTINE WAVE...AND THE UKMET/ECMWF KEEP IT
TUCKED IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. FROM EXPERIENCE AND WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE SO FAR AWAY FROM OUR REGION...THE TROPICAL WAVE COULD
SPLIT...SHEAR OUT...DAMPEN OUT...GET SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BY THE
WESTERN RIDGE OR SHARPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...SO POPS AND CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY CHANGE ACCORDINGLY. HENCE...ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT CLOUD COVER AND PIN-POINT POPS. ALSO THE BACK SIDE (WESTERN
PERIPHERY) OF THE WAVE AXIS IS NORMALLY MORE ACTIVE. FOR NOW..WILL
INDICATE THE HIGHEST 40 PERCENT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH QUESTIONABLE TRIMMING TO 30 PERCENT
THEREAFTER. AND FINALLY...ENOUGH INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AVERAGING NEAR 80 DEGREES."

Convection is down and ASCAT's 11:00 pass, although it missed where the center would be, shows an open wave configuration on both sides of where it would be. NE on the leading edge and SE on the trailing eastern edge It also showed 35knot SE winds between 15-16N on the east side.
Antillies radar is not showing looking like a Tropical circulation.

So no TD for now. We will have to see how 92L and the upper level high interact.
Disappointed?

2538. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
06 GFDL doesn't even pick it up.


You can see it takes it into the SE GOM...Link
Quoting sailingallover:
Convection is down and ASCAT's 11:00 pass, although it missed where the center would be, shows an open wave configuration on both sides of where it would be. NE on the leading edge and SE on the trailing eastern edge It also showed 35knot SE winds between 15-16N on the east side.
Antillies radar is not showing looking like a Tropical circulation.

So no TD for now. We will have to see how 92L and the upper level high interact.
92L has been interacting with upper level winds since yesterday. And ASCAT completely missed the COC yesterday.
I have a funny feeling 92L might end up being annihilated shortly in a somewhat anti-climactic finale.
2543. calder
My guess:

16 named systems
10 hurricanes
4 majors
2544. calder
What do the different IR channels show exactly? Obvs different wavelengths/frequencies but what does the rainbow IR show as opposed to the greens and blues in the 13 channel?
Shear still decreasing, and decreasing at a faster rate, over the system.
Quoting calder:
My guess:

16 named systems
10 hurricanes
4 majors
My forecast released on June 1st called for 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 7 major hurricanes.
Good morning everyone,

Well, so much for this 92L disappearing today; looks strong to me.

and I will continue to keep my April prediction that the first named Atlantic Hurricane will happen on June 21st! (not Tropical storm but hurricane)


So now the models have this developing??? Is that what I am seeing from your previous few posts this morning?

Hope Dr Master's put up a new blog soon.

Enjoy your Friday tracking this system!

Gamma
Quoting DestinJeff:


great ... now I don't know what to expect. NHC always seems to be right in the end, but sure fun to create our own reality in between updates!

Looking all the way back to Monday the models have really called this one even though it really appeared they would be wrong and it would become a storm. The first couple track had it re-curving early but since they have taken it about right where it is at the intensities it's been at.
Believe it or not wind shear over 92L is just 20-30 knots due to an upper level ridge to the south. There is also a small area of 40 knot upper level winds on the extreme northern quadrant. I have to go for a bit, be back in 1 hour.

2552. calder
Quoting DestinJeff:
worse than any iteration of JFV, is the relentless individual forecasts for activity that get repeated over and over and over ...

just like once it gets started it takes at least 100 comments to subside.


did follow mine with a pretty legimate question however...
2553. calder
legitimate*
Quoting msphar:
Anybody have a synopsis of what is happening in the islands ? I am just waking up here and much removed from the region, so no sense for what is going on...

My focus = is Eastern Puerto Rico far enough North to be unaffected now ???

I'm in STT Right now teh bulk of 92L is to far east still. It will be this afternoon when we start getting something out it depending on how the convection develops today. It is so far south and tracking due west so even if it does start to develop it should go south of PR. Also we will have a lot of shear over us which should tear anything that comes over us apart. But we will be getting a lot of rain...
COC of 92L imo at 15N/62.5W moving WSW, looking a little ragged now , but will reorganize later today/night to become a bad dude down the road , just my opinion.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST FRI JUN 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW LOCATED JUST OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...
WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...MAINLY OVER WATERS
SOUTH OF VIEQUES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE ON FRONT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL SLIGHTLY
LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EARLIER TODAY...THE COMBINATION OF
LOCAL EFFECTS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST AND AFFECT PUERTO RICO THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
NOCTURNAL FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM COULD INCREASE
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS
TROPICAL WAVE WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING THE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND MOST LOCAL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MVFR
CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
TNCM...AND TKPK FROM 18/10Z THROUGH AT LEAST 18/22Z.
MEANWHILE...PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT TIST...AND TISX
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ...AND TJPS IN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...THE BEFORE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING ACTIVE
AND SQUALLY WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...LOW VISIBILITIES...GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS CONDITIONS
TO THE REGIONAL WATERS. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATOR SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 30 80 70 60
STT 88 78 88 79 / 30 80 70 70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND
VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND
VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-
WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
it is evident from recent sat pics that thee are a number of vortices within 92L. i get the impression that the system is trying hard to establish a proper LLC. shear is on the decline opening up a window of oppurtunity for 92L to go through a period of organisation
92L been ducking heaviest shear, like a pilot trying to fly around the worse turbulence.
2554:

Amazing.

Model is calling for 1001mb and 45mph sustained even after passing over cuba...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Disappointed?



don't be
this has come far
from a place that was unbelievable
travel far to the brink
to make us stop and think
antilles radar is down :(
2565. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


the word "ouch" comes to mind. that makes me think of something that may be unique about this season ... re-generation.

typically we count on storms to get weakened by terrain features, then struggle to regain former glory. i think this year that may not apply as much, as SST (and especially TCHP)will support rapidid re-intensification of systems after they traverse a land mass. just a theory.


To get the numbers the experts are forecasting, you're probably correct. If this season doesn't come close to what nearly everyone is forecasting, a lot of cred will be taking a hit. I can't see them being wrong.

I doubt 92L dies anytime soon. I think it's final destination is the GOM/GOO.
Well, maybe half to 3/4 of it's circulation is going to spend much of the day over 30C water. If the shear keeps weakening it has a chance to make TS today...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
92L has been interacting with upper level winds since yesterday. And ASCAT completely missed the COC yesterday.

Yes the 11:00UTC pass today missed it two leaving a a 3-4 degree gap. But the winds on either side of the gap show no signs of a COC. Neither does meteo FR radar that I can see.
Not in Vis Sat either.
Any product out there that clearly show a COC?

Im wondering how it will interact being under the upper level High it is going to go under. Will it dampen convection only along the leading edge or across the whole wave? Or will 92L's convection overcome the subsidence and then the UH will help vent it
6Z GFS is very wet for the NE Caribbean including the N Leewards/VI/PR
2569. IKE
See post 58 from 4 years ago>>>Link
Unlike yesterday I do not see a coc today
Quoting stormpetrol:
COC of 92L imo at 15N/62.5W moving WSW, looking a little ragged now , but will reorganize later today/night to become a bad dude down the road , just my opinion.

There is no sign of a circulation there in the ASCAT pass or am I reading this
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km/zooms/WMBds88.png
wrong?
I realize most anyone using this blog is probably already over prepared, but just in case...

Better stock up on your batteries and non-perishable supplies now.

With these water temperatures, the action is probably going to be non-stop once it gets started.

The WRF model calls for 92L to stay just south of Haiti on what looks like a collision course for Jamaica, which is about what I thought anyway, actually slightly farther south of what I thought. Main problem is, there is a ridiculous amount of heat potential in the water in that area.
2574. 7544
and the models really want to bring this across to fla and gom the question is how strong will it be the way 92l has been showing off i dont think anyone really knows but 92l stay tuned

also the hawf jumps on the ban waggon for 92l and two other systems to follow .could se fla get 1 one two or maybe a 3 punch in june ????/


off to work be back at lunch
be vary vary vary quiet am hunting JFV
Quoting Tazmanian:
be vary vary vary quiet am hunting JFV


HEY TAZ!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting Tazmanian:
be vary vary vary quiet am hunting JFV


BOO
Excerpt from Preliminary Carribean Discussion:


THE EASTERLY WAVE IS TO MOVE ACROSS THE USVI BY 18-21 UTC
TODAY...ENTERING EASTERN PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 00-03 UTC THIS
EVENING...AND EJECT ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AROUND
06-09 UTC TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG CYCLONIC ADVECTION WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS PERTURBATION AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS...WITH
A 20-25KT WIND SURGE TO PRECEDE WAVE PASSAGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT
DIVERGE ON WHERE THE ACTIVITY IS GOING TO DEVELOP. THE GFS
MAINTAINS CONTINUITY SHOWING MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF TAKE THE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO THE VI/PUERTO RICO
FORECAST AREA.
Quoting 7544:
and the models really want to bring this across to fla and gom the question is how strong will it be the way 92l has been showing off i dont think anyone really knows but 92l stay tuned

also the hawf jumps on the ban waggon for 92l and two other systems to follow .could se fla get 1 one two or maybe a 3 punch in june ????/


wafflecaster.
I thought it'd be a TD this morning,crow please;)....looks like a open wave as the convection w/any MCC has dies off just like levi predicted,92L isn't dead yet still worth watch IMO...also looks like some crow for me for stating that the near 0% chance people would be changing their minds today,looks like I'm the one who's changing his mind!!!
Is there a COC and if so approximately where is it???
2587. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:
while it is slow, can we agree not to do the TWO % Guessing Game for the 2 o'clock?


Thanks Jeff, now I have nothing to post. I guess!!!
Good Morning. Great to see, for the Lesser Antilles, that the sheer wall took a lot of the punch away from 92L; I was expecting total destruction of the system overnight but am happy to see a much less organized disturbance this morning.......But for the sheer caused by the TUTT location (expected in June), they could have been looking at a Cat 4 this morning.
2586:

Right now the best guess on CoC is somewhere near 15N and 62W.

It's actually poorly organized and may have more than one vortex. The land of just those tiny islands may have done it in, but we shall see.
2590. IKE
Quoting seflagamma:
Is there a COC and if so approximately where is it???


Not sure there's much of a spin left....I can't tell yet.

COC is near 16.1N and 60.6W
2580. YourCommonSense 12:32 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
be vary vary vary quiet am hunting JFV


HEY TAZ!!!!!!!!!!



hi
2592. Dakster
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
thanks, but i goy enough them annoying birds down here.


Have any peacocks? That has to be one of the most annoying birds god ever created.
Blog VERY quiet this morning.
Quoting Dakster:


Have any peacocks? That has to be one of the most annoying birds god ever created.


As a golfer... I would have to say a Canadian Goose.... not as loud, but a lot more of them.
One item of note in the MDR, and it fits nicely with Dr. M's recent post with regard to moisture level increases caused by SST temp increases, is the incredible amount of moisture/water vapor in the MDR just South of the TUTT all the way from the Antilles to Africa.....All that moisture will rise along with the TUTT so dry air intrusion will not be much of a problem in the sub-equatorial ridge.....We may well get a few early Cape Verde storms, in July, this year.....We need to keep our eyes on the emerging waves off of Africa in July me thinks.
Quoting sailingallover:

Yes the 11:00UTC pass today missed it two leaving a a 3-4 degree gap. But the winds on either side of the gap show no signs of a COC. Neither does meteo FR radar that I can see.
Not in Vis Sat either.
Any product out there that clearly show a COC?

Im wondering how it will interact being under the upper level High it is going to go under. Will it dampen convection only along the leading edge or across the whole wave? Or will 92L's convection overcome the subsidence and then the UH will help vent it
Last night radar showed a circulation but it remained open.
AL 92 2010061812 BEST 0 161N 622W 25 1011 WV
still moving west

AL, 92, 2010061812, , BEST, 0, 161N, 622W, 25, 1011, WV,
2599. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 92 2010061812 BEST 0 161N 622W 25 1011 WV


96 miles further west in 6 hours...moving 16mph due west.
Good thing JFV isn't here. He would be praying for the HWRF to verify.

Only two models take it to a TS (HWFI,GHMI)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Someone needs to prank call Levi and tell him it's time to get up :) :) :)
2603. IKE
San Juan is at 18.5N and 66.6W. Roughly 120-150 miles to the north latitude of 92L.

I would say it's going south of PR...
Quoting IKE:


96 miles further west in 6 hours...moving 16mph due west.
I myself am having a hard time believing the models as they are taking 92L further northward towards the weakness over the Bahamas, as steering currents pushing it towards the west are much stronger.
Quoting IKE:
San Juan is at 18.5N and 66.6W. Roughly 120-150 miles to the north latitude of 92L.

I would say it's going south of PR...
I agree with you. I just don't see any northward motion.
Probably going to be at least 3 to 6 hours before any major development happens. It's gotta get more of it's energy past those islands before it can do anything.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Been talking about that entry and trek further south in the Caribbean than many expect for a couple of days now ...

Ironically, lack of development last night creates more likelihood of the southerly outcome.
I agree.
Quoting Tazmanian:
be vary vary vary quiet am hunting JFV


ROFLMAO
2612. Crawls
How many of you have jobs where you can be wrong as often as the weather "experts" and still be employed? Think I'm gonna change professions!
92L becoming a larger system, one reason is the excessive amount of low level clouds with no convection.

So...is 92 gonna finally get its act together or what?
2615. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:
"center" at roughly 15N/62W?



Hey Jeff. Do you think 92L could circumvent the high shear quickly and move to a more favorable area?
Quoting Crawls:
How many of you have jobs where you can be wrong as often as the weather "experts" and still be employed? Think I'm gonna change professions!


I do ;)
It just costs me money.
Good morning.

I have not been on since yesterday morning but see that 92L continues to wax and wane.The surface low remains very poorly organized and with it having entered the Eastern Caribbean the likelihood of redevelopment falls significantly.

Given its very weak state I would expect a track to the West in the low level Easterly flow to continue. If it can avoid Hispaniola the area to watch for the next big flare up would be around 75W.

ASCAT has not yet downloaded for this morning but based upon the satellite presentation a well defined surface low is unlikely.

I get the impression from reading the entries that many on here really want the remnants of 92L to regenerate into a storm in spite of the huge bullet that the folks in the Antilles just dodged.......On that note, not looking forward to the potential torrential rains and life-threatening mudslides that this system may bring to the greater antilles, and Haiti, down the road.
2621. Crawls
2618. lickitysplit 1:10 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Quoting Crawls:
How many of you have jobs where you can be wrong as often as the weather "experts" and still be employed? Think I'm gonna change professions!


Good luck with the change. I hope it works out. Just stay away from anything that has to do with science as you clearly dont understand how science works.

Jeez, it was a joke!
Quoting DestinJeff:


I know you swear by the 75W theory, and I don't doubt it either.


History doesn't lie. 63W is the line by which it needs to be a TD to continue developing. If not, its a waiting game until the Western Caribbean.
Time to head out for the office so have a great day. Back later.
2626. IKE
Peaceful Friday on the blog.

To get ya in da mode....Link
Quoting Crawls:
2618. lickitysplit 1:10 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Quoting Crawls:
How many of you have jobs where you can be wrong as often as the weather "experts" and still be employed? Think I'm gonna change professions!


Good luck with the change. I hope it works out. Just stay away from anything that has to do with science as you clearly dont understand how science works.

Jeez, it was a joke!


Mine too. Sorry. I guess the e-snark didnt come across well.

predicted wave train
RecordSeason and Ike,
thanks to you both for answering my question!

Hi everyone, probably my last check in for a while....

Circulation looks to be way apart from the convection all the way at 62.6W 16.0N.

2632. Grothar
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I get the impression from reading the entries that many on here really want the remnants of 92L to regenerate into a storm in spite of the huge bullet that the folks in the Antilles just dodged.......On that note, not looking forward to the potential torrential rains and life-threatening mudslides that this system may bring to the greater antilles, and Haiti, down the road.


This is an image of a neighbor, which I believe was Lakes by the Bay, the morning after Andrew. It was just a few blocks from our home. I don't think anyone who has actually ever been in a storm of this size, wants to see a repeat. Many have become more concerned about these systems, which they should. Andrew weaked three times before becoming a Cat 5. Yes, there may be some who hope to see a storm develop, but I can assure you I am not one of them. I hope any who see this image, comes to realize that these storms are not fun and games. But you brought up a good point. Hope some take heed.

2633. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Circulation looks to be way apart from the convection all the way at 62.6W 16.0N.



I don't see much circulation left of 92L.
2634. raggpr
I live here in PR. Im waiting to see what happens. Just to keep you people inform, we are experiencing a nice breeze from the NE, the breeze is some how higher than normal.
Quoting IKE:
Peaceful Friday on the blog.

To get ya in da mode....Link
LOL.
-----------------------------------------------
I'm happy to announce that I have bought a weather station and it measures things such as pressure, air temperature, winds, gusts, etc... This should come useful if there are any hurricanes coming by.
2636. IKE
I don't see a circulation. Tropical wave.
2637. raggpr
The radar is showing some showers heading to our area. Not too much, it seem to be light rain
try this again tropical wave train
Quoting IKE:


I don't see much circulation left of 92L.
I do, but it remains weak and open.


Information About Tropical Wave (Invest 92L)


Storm information valid as of: Friday, June 18, 2010 12:00 Z
Coordinates: 16.1N 62.2W
Location: 33 miles (53 km) to the WNW (282°) from Basse Terre, Guadeloupe (FRA)
Pressure (MSLP): 1011 mb (29.86 inHg | 1011 hPa)
Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.): 25 knots (29 mph | 13 m/s)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL.
-----------------------------------------------
I'm happy to announce that I have bought a weather station and it measures things such as pressure, air temperature, winds, gusts, etc... This should come useful if there are any hurricanes coming by.


Hook it up to your CPU and set it up with WU. You get a free membership.


Good morning, all. I hope this worked.
Very high moisture around Tampa today. Thunderstorms should begin to fire on the seabreeze starting now. Very early today. I expect most of west central fl to be affected today.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Only two models take it to a TS (HWFI,GHMI)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


REALLY??? Must the thing that won't die have to air at S FL???? Hope these models are wrong. Tooooo freaking early in the season for this!! Frances, Jeanne, Wilma...ALEX?????? crap!
2645. Relix
Lol convection died since I posted a few hours ago. Now it looks quite bad =P
2646. IKE
Maybe the GFS is on to something in that the top portion of 92L appears to me to be getting stronger...north of the islands on it's path.

Irregardless....it's headed into 40-50 knots of shear....

12z coordinates match where I see the open circulation. I'm waiting for ASCAT to see if we have an signs of a closed circulation (which I doubt telling from satellite).

Quoting Grothar:


This is an image of a neighbor, which I believe was Lakes by the Bay, the morning after Andrew. It was just a few blocks from our home. I don't think anyone who has actually ever been in a storm of this size, wants to see a repeat. Many have become more concerned about these systems, which they should. Andrew weaked three times before becoming a Cat 5. Yes, there may be some who hope to see a storm develop, but I can assure you I am not one of them. I hope any who see this image, comes to realize that these storms are not fun and games. But you brought up a good point. Hope some take heed.



My girlfreind, at the time, and I lived in Countrywalk (her home) when Andrew hit...I stayed with my parents in Miami Shores (Northern Dade County)that Sunday night when the storm cae through and she spend the night with her son also north of ground zero......The house was "gone" when I drove back down on Monday morning........Whole development looked like the picture you posted.....You never forget a sight like that and the lives destroyed.
Typical TWC update.

It's the worst hurricane in recorded history, and they have a ticker going across the screen advertising termite control.

Then the robo-reporter is just matter of factly, "Wind gusts could reach 150mph..."

Translation: "GET THE HELL OUT OF HERE!!"
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Hook it up to your CPU and set it up with WU. You get a free membership.
Oh that's pretty cool. I'll have it up in a couple of weeks. By the way the zip code of the weather station is 33145 in Coral Gables (Miami), Florida.
2651. IKE
Tropical Wave Crossing Leeward Islands

Jun 18, 2010 7:44 AM

The area of disturbed weather associated with a strong tropical wave is just east of the Leeward Islands Friday. The system is being strongly sheared, and the weak low-level low pressure area is well west of the main location of thunderstorms; therefore, the system is strongly tilted to the northeast due to strong shear. Tropical systems rarely develop within this type of environment. This whole system will move westward across the Leeward Islands during the day and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Friday and overnight into Saturday. The system will bring moderate to heavy rain along with gusty winds across this area. Heavy rain and gusty winds from this system will affect Hispaniola Saturday night and Sunday. The heavy rain in Haiti could lead to dangerous and perhaps life threatening mudslides Sunday, and perhaps into Monday of next week. Moisture from this system will reach Cuba Monday and Tuesday and might eventually affect southern and central Florida around the middle of next week. Current computer forecasts continue to show strong shear along the system's path through early next week. Given the combination of strong shear and interaction with the Greater Antilles, further development is unlikely through at least early next week.

Other tropical waves near 26 west, south of 10 north, 44 west, south of 11 north, and near 73 west, south of 19 north, remain very weak and disorganized.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologists Dan Kottlowski and Brian Wimer
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


REALLY??? Must the thing that won't die have to air at S FL???? Hope these models are wrong. Tooooo freaking early in the season for this!! Frances, Jeanne, Wilma...ALEX?????? crap!
LOL!! You kidding right?
sorry for typo...ment AIM at S Fl??
Quoting IKE:
Tropical Wave Crossing Leeward Islands

Jun 18, 2010 7:44 AM

The area of disturbed weather associated with a strong tropical wave is just east of the Leeward Islands Friday. The system is being strongly sheared, and the weak low-level low pressure area is well west of the main location of thunderstorms; therefore, the system is strongly tilted to the northeast due to strong shear. Tropical systems rarely develop within this type of environment. This whole system will move westward across the Leeward Islands during the day and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Friday and overnight into Saturday. The system will bring moderate to heavy rain along with gusty winds across this area. Heavy rain and gusty winds from this system will affect Hispaniola Saturday night and Sunday. The heavy rain in Haiti could lead to dangerous and perhaps life threatening mudslides Sunday, and perhaps into Monday of next week. Moisture from this system will reach Cuba Monday and Tuesday and might eventually affect southern and central Florida around the middle of next week. Current computer forecasts continue to show strong shear along the system's path through early next week. Given the combination of strong shear and interaction with the Greater Antilles, further development is unlikely through at least early next week.

Other tropical waves near 26 west, south of 10 north, 44 west, south of 11 north, and near 73 west, south of 19 north, remain very weak and disorganized.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologists Dan Kottlowski and Brian Wimer
It's beginning to become a pest that they continue to direct the system towards Puerto Rico if 92L is moving towards the west and is 140 miles south of it (roughly).
Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

Spot on Dr. Masters, Spot On.
2657. Grothar
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


My girlfreind, at the time, and I lived in Countrywalk (her home) when Andrew hit...I stayed with my parents in Miami Shores (Northern Dade County)that Sunday night when the storm cae through and she spend the night with her son also north of ground zero......The house was "gone" when I drove back down on Monday morning........Whole development looked like the picture you posted.....You never forget a sight like that and the lives destroyed.


One never does. Country walk was a disaster. You also find out many things. One being that you CAN fit 11 people into one bathtub, if necessary. We can laugh now, but it wasn't funny at the time was it?
92L's COC looks to open in the southern quadrant, let's see what ASCAT shows.

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

Spot on Dr. Masters, Spot On.


It has not dissipated yet.
2661. aquak9
Quoting ShesACaneiac:


Good morning, all. I hope this worked.


It worked. You're here.

Welcome to the addiction.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

Spot on Dr. Masters, Spot On.
Man if it dissipates today I will send $500 to Jeff Masters.
Nope, not kidding. But, good news is that I do have hurricane safety procedures down to a fine science by now....starting with refilling yearly prescription of Xanex (PTSD...post-traumatic storm disorder) and can shutter my house in record time!! LOL
Off topic but I had to post it.

REUPLOADED TWC Hurricane Katrina coverage 8/28/05

"Ugh, boy, this is not good." That says it all.

Quoting aquak9:


It worked. You're here.

Welcome to the addiction.
Lol. You got that right.
I continue to agree with the BAMM track (or just south of it). Also, look at the SHIPS intensity forecast.
Quoting AllStar17:
I continue to agree with the BAMM track (or just south of it). Also, look at the SHIPS intensity forecast.
If 92L can survive I'm going to go even further south than the BAMM, I think a Jamaica strike is likely.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If 92L can survive I'm going to go even further south than the BAMM, I think a Jamaica strike is likely.


Me too. That is why I put (or just south of it).
12z BAMS moved further south, I'm beginning to favor that one for now.

Quoting AllStar17:


Me too. That is why I put (or just south of it).
Yeah, lol.
Its over 92L is rip
greenme: if there's anythign that loop shows me, it's that king TUTT has ruled in the carribean for all of june
Quoting DestinJeff:
it would be better if 92L would develop more so that the energy is taken over land mass before it is too spun up ...

otherwise the energy tends to go more west and gets into the central carribbean, along with much lower shear.

not to sound like a w-caster, but minor organization i think is preferred at this point because the engery just isn't going away.
There are westcasters here too? Damn, well call me a westcaster for now as I have steering currents in favor of my opinion. Plus strengthening isn't in the near future so rule of thumb suggests westward motion.

Quoting helove2trac:
Its over 92L is rip
LOL, I've learned not to RIP anything in the tropics, much less 92L.
Quoting Grothar:


One never does. Country walk was a disaster. You also find out many things. One being that you CAN fit 11 people into one bathtub, if necessary. We can laugh now, but it wasn't funny at the time was it?


Our relationship did not survive Andrew. She lost everything (House/Boat/Car) and turned to alcohol/DUI's/PTSD over the following year and never really recovered from the loss.........Very Sad.
12Z SHIPS brings 92L near the Cayman Islands as a strong Tropical Storm.
why yall keep saying jamacian strike its not even a tropical depression yet come on guys be real
2684. lilElla
From Post 2651 - The heavy rain in Haiti could lead to dangerous and perhaps life threatening mudslides Sunday, and perhaps into Monday of next week.

Haitians need our help! PayPal/Portlight!!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, I've learned not to RIP anything in the tropics, much less 92L.

Didn't you RIP 92L last night in your blog update?
MiamiHurricanes09 Blog
June 17, 2010 - 11:20 AM EDT - 92L Dissipates; The Atlantic Remains Quiet
Quoting AussieStorm:

Didn't you RIP 92L last night in your blog update?

June 17, 2010 - 11:20 AM EDT - 92L Dissipates; The Atlantic Remains Quiet
Because of that post is exactly why I no longer RIP systems.
2687. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Because of that post is exactly why I no longer RIP systems.


92L has taught me a lesson or two. This thing will not die, it's trying and trying.
Sorry i didnt mean to get u introuble with RIP MIAMI
Quoting cg2916:


92L has taught me a lesson or two. This thing will not die, it's trying and trying.
Absolutely. So Aussie, are you buckled in for the rainy and cold La Nina winter over there?
2693. cg2916
Quoting StormW:
This is one time, I have to agree pretty much with the STATISTICAL MODELS, a more subtle turn .

12Z STATISTICAL MODELS:



12Z DYNAMIC MODELS:




Wow, the Dynamical models give it a 90 degree turn in 6 hours.
2694. cg2916
NEW BLOG!!!
Quoting helove2trac:
Sorry i didnt mean to get u introuble with RIP MIAMI
You didn't get me in trouble, lol. I'm just saying that you can never RIP a system in the tropics.
Quoting Grothar:


One never does. Country walk was a disaster. You also find out many things. One being that you CAN fit 11 people into one bathtub, if necessary. We can laugh now, but it wasn't funny at the time was it?

During Andrew I was living at SW 184 Street (eureka Drive) and 123rd Ave. It was not pretty I was one of the only houses with the roof still on minus all the shingles. I found my shed about 6 houses down the street inside a pool.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh that's pretty cool. I'll have it up in a couple of weeks. By the way the zip code of the weather station is 33145 in Coral Gables (Miami), Florida.


Sounds pretty neat, what kind is it and where can I get one?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Because of that post is exactly why I no longer RIP systems.

even a naked swirl can become something in the right conditions, I hope 92L doesn't find the right conditions or we might have a Tstorm on our hands.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Man if it dissipates today I will send $500 to Jeff Masters.
HAHAHA I'm willing to eat dead crow but your really brave!
You might need to break out your check book..
Looks like the subsidence from the Upper Level High in the Caribbean is stomping on 92L's convection. Maybe daytime heating will give it a kick this afternoon..
Shear is greater over PR and the DR.

Ok I think what is going to happen is as 92L goes under the Upper level High over the Caribbean it is going to get squashed on the West side and the shear on the east side of the high will push the east side of 92L south so it will almost look like it's spinning clockwise and it will be pretty much dead..for now...

Is that a COC at 16.5 63.5? The last few frames of the WV loop look like the beginning of convection firing there with circulation?
2702. Walshy
Quoting SykKid:
Does anyone actually believe this thing has a legit shot at development? I just can't see it happening.


Yes. Model support is over whelming. The conditions are there for development.