WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Globe has 2nd or 6th warmest February on record; Fiji hard-hit by Tomas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:51 PM GMT on March 18, 2010

The globe recorded its sixth warmest February since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated February 2010 the second warmest, behind 1998. The year-to-date period, January - February, is the 5th or 2nd warmest such period on record, according to NOAA and NASA, respectively. NOAA rated February 2010 global ocean temperatures as the 2nd warmest on record, next to 1998. February land temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were the warmest on record, but in the Northern Hemisphere, they were the 26th warmest. The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures were due in part to the much-above average amount of snow on the ground--February 2010 snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the 3rd highest in the 44-year snow cover record. For the entire winter, the Northern Hemisphere had the 2nd greatest snow cover on record, the U.S. had its greatest snow cover, and Eurasia had its 4th most.


Figure 1. departure of surface temperature from average for the globe during February 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the second warmest on record in February, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups. Both groups also rated the winter of 2009 - 2010 the 2nd warmest winter on record. The record warmest February and winter occurred 1998.

Moderate El Niño conditions continue
Moderate El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.2°C above average--in the middle of the 1.0°C - 1.5°C range for a moderate El Niño--on March 14, 2010, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño has been roughly constant for all of February and the first two weeks of March. Anomalously strong westerly winds along the Equator that have helped maintain the current El Niño have weakened since March 1, but are probably strong enough to maintain the current moderate El Niño conditions through mid-April. Some slow weakening of El Niño is likely beginning in early April. It is highly uncertain what may happen to El Niño at that point, with the models split between predicting a weak El Niño, neutral conditions, or a La Niña by the height of hurricane season (August-September-October). It's worth noting that the last time we had a strong El Niño--the record-strength 1997 - 1998 event--El Niño conditions collapsed suddenly in May 1998, and a La Niña event rapidly developed during the summer of 1998. A similar chain of events is possible this year, as well. However, the El Niño of 1986 - 1987 maintained moderate strength through two consecutive hurricane seasons, and it is possible that this year's El Niño could pull a similar feat. We simply don't have the predictive skill to say what might happen to El Niño this summer.

February sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
February 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic during much of February 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland. In this way, a negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years.

Heavy damage on Fiji from Tropical Cyclone Tomas
Communications are still out to most of the islands in the Fiji devastated by Tropical Cyclone Tomas, but it is apparent that the Category 3 storm caused "overwhelming damage" to the islands that received a direct hit, according to the Associated Press. Tomas, packing winds of up to 130 mph (205 kph) at its center, hit Fiji beginning late Friday. The Lau and Lomaiviti island groups and the northern coast of the second biggest island, Vanua Levu, took the brunt of the storm. Only one death has been reported thus far. Initial reports said 1500 homes were destroyed or damaged and up to 50 percent of facilities in the Lau Group were affected.

I'll have a new post on Friday, when I plan to discuss why the Red River at Fargo, ND is now experiencing a "10-year flood" once every 2.5 years, on average.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr. Masters for your thoughtful and informative updates.
Thanks, Doc.

Funny, this El Nino seems to be holding on.... Although I bet it's just a tease and it will go neutral by June... :-/
thanks for new blog and update have a great day off to work i go check back at lunch
Evening all.
Can someone explain to me how 1 organization can say February was the 6th and another says its the 2nd? Why isn't it either the 6th warmest or the 2nd warmest, not both?
However, the El Niño of 1986 - 1987 maintained moderate strength through two consecutive hurricane seasons, and it is possible that this year's El Niño could pull a similar feat.

Hang on El Nino and keep the Atlantic quiet for the 2010 season(fingers crossed).






TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:35pm EST on Thursday the 18th of March 2010

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Cardwell to Yeppoon.


At 10:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 3 was estimated to be
1090 kilometres northeast of Mackay and 1220 kilometres east northeast of
Townsville and is moving south at 7 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to remain at about the same strength.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului is expected to begin moving in a southwesterly
direction during the morning, towards the Queensland coast.

On current predictions the most likely scenario is for the cyclone to cross the
coast Sunday morning between Cardwell and Mackay. However, it is important to
understand that some uncertainty remains in this outlook period.

DAMAGING winds should develop between Cardwell and Yeppoon during Saturday, and
increasing further on Saturday night as the cyclone approaches the coast.

The windy conditions over much of the Queensland east coastal waters will
continue due to the tight pressure gradient generated by a combination of a high
pressure system situated in the Tasman Sea and Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului.
Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast
and produce dangerous surf conditions on the exposed coasts.

People between Cardwell and Yeppoon should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.7 degrees South 157.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 185 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 970 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Friday 19 March.
Thank you Dr.Masters,El Nino certainly had was a strong player in this winter's weather,the big question is what effect will it have,if any,this hurricane season.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Evening all.
Can someone explain to me how 1 organization can say February was the 6th and another says its the 2nd? Why isn't it either the 6th warmest or the 2nd warmest, not both?


Its called Cherry picking... you pick the data bases you are going to use to get your views across.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its called Cherry picking... you pick the data bases you are going to use to get your views across.


A scientific view would be that the numbers are different because the data sources are different.
Quoting FatPenguin:


A scientific view would be that the numbers are different because the data sources are different.

But why is the data different, cause one is from land based reading and the other is from satellite?
Quoting FatPenguin:


A scientific view would be that the numbers are different because the data sources are different.


Valid statement... but after the previous Fiascoes and Hockey Sticks... I have lost faith in who is telling the truth, and who is driving an agenda.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Valid statement... but after the previous Fiascoes and Hockey Sticks... I have lost faith in who is telling the truth, and who is driving an agenda.



"Ditto"

Good morning everyone.
The really depressing thing about the whole mess is this...

They have called wolf to many times..and then got caught fudging the data... even if they are 100% correct (I still think its 50/50 man & natural)... no one will believe them.
Thanks for the update, Dr. M!

I look forward to see your post tomorrow about the Red River, as I have some pretty solid thoughts about what is causing the flooding, but would love to see your thoughts.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Thank you Dr Masters for the new blog and adding a comment about El Nino.Certainly,the subsurface in the EastCentral Pacific continues to be very warm and that is a sign that El Nino doesnt want to go away for now.I wont follow the ENSO models because I think they may be wrong forecasting too soon the demise of El Nino.

TCHP for today


Are we in June?
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html

Have a look at this website for SST anomalies for Feb through March and it's so obvious that the region that Dr M mentions (-5S to +5N, 120-170W) has significantly cooler in March as compared to January 2010!!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
TCHP for today


Are we in June?


Hey Mike! Yea thats pretty wild... If you ask me one of the clear-cut sign this el nino could be in its demise i.e; in trouble is that the warm subsurface temperatures generated by the current Kelvin Wave are having little to no effect due to constant upwelling in ENSO region 1/2. tchp and sst's aren't going to be an issue this year as it stands now but will the atmosphere cooperate?
Quoting hurricane23:


Hey Mike! Yea thats pretty wild... If you ask me one of the clear-cut sign this el nino could be in its demise i.e; in trouble is that the warm subsurface temperatures generated by the current Kelvin Wave are having little to no effect due to constant upwelling in ENSO region 1/2. tchp and sst's aren't going to be an issue this year as it stands now but will the atmosphere cooperate?


Hey Adrian! I can honestly say I have never seen this much heat content in the Caribbean so early in all of my 8 years of watching the tropics. Hopefully some serious shear develops or large outbreaks of SAL dominate the season because we could be in trouble if these waters get tapped during the year.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
TCHP for today


Are we in June?

???

June 15 2005:


2006:


2007:


2008:


2009:


Yours looks like March. (Okay, *is* a little warm for March...but not June.)

Does everyone else see wild and crazy, never before seen heat and favorable tropical parameters every time they look at a map? Is everyone but me expecting an April 1 cat3 in the Gulf, or what? It is getting tired.
Quoting atmoaggie:

???

June 15 2005:


2006:


2007:


2008:


2009:


Yours looks like March. (Okay, *is* a little warm for March...but not June.)

Does everyone else see wild and crazy, never before seen heat and favorable tropical parameters every time they look at a map? Is everyone but me expecting an April 1 cat3 in the Gulf, or what? It is getting tired.
.
Isn't the GOM to cold at the moment for it to be warm enough to support a Cat 3?
Is the ALT warm enough to support a cat 3 right now?
Quoting atmoaggie:

???

June 15 2005:


2006:


2007:


2008:


2009:


Yours looks like March. (Okay, *is* a little warm for March...but not June.)

Does everyone else see wild and crazy, never before seen heat and favorable tropical parameters every time they look at a map? Is everyone but me expecting an April 1 cat3 in the Gulf, or what? It is getting tired.


The wishcasters are already in full force Atmo. It's only going to get worse as we draw closer to June 1st. I agree that the upcoming year will be more active than last, but cmon people its March. A lot can happen in the next 4-5 months before we really get into the heart of hurricane season.
Quoting AussieStorm:
.
Isn't the GOM to cold at the moment for it to be warm enough to support a Cat 3?
Is the ALT warm enough to support a cat 3 right now?


The loop current has the potential to support a tropical storm, but not sure it would support a Cat 3.
atmoaggie:

Chill dude!

Yes, agreed that comparison to June was not wise but SSTs and hence TCHP this year so far are def higher than even 2005 were at this stage and if you extrapolate (also not wise to do) you can just imagine what June would look like..! :)
Quoting atmoaggie:

???

June 15 2005:


2006:


2007:


2008:


2009:


Yours looks like March. (Okay, *is* a little warm for March...but not June.)

Does everyone else see wild and crazy, never before seen heat and favorable tropical parameters every time they look at a map? Is everyone but me expecting an April 1 cat3 in the Gulf, or what? It is getting tired.


Most of the tropical atlantic except close to home is currently above normal and (could)bring consequences if all parameters come into play. I would not mind if el nino affects linger deep into the season to be quite honest.

.
31. IKE
Quoting Chucktown:


The wishcasters are already in full force Atmo. It's only going to get worse as we draw closer to June 1st. I agree that the upcoming year will be more active than last, but cmon people its March. A lot can happen in the next 4-5 months before we really get into the heart of hurricane season.


But then IF nothing develops by July 1st, 2010, the downcasters will show up and then they will be rebutted by the argument that 99% of the season happens after July 1st and we're not in the heart of the season yet.

Get ready!
actually..look at it closely.. compare TCHPs east of 80W for 2009 and 2010 for March 17th...it's not that far off!! LOL..
correction.. I meant compare TCHPs East of 80W (in Carribean) for June 17th 2009 and March 17th 2010...not too different to be honest!!
Wow so someone cant even post a TCHP chart and make an obvious and at least in my mind perfectly valid comment without someone ripping their head off?

I think I will go invest in a hard hat, seems like I would need it in here lol
Quoting Chigz:
correction.. I meant compare TCHPs East of 80W (in Carribean) for June 17th 2009 and March 17th 2010...not too different to be honest!!

but remember, its only march and they look similar now, what will June look like?


Here is the TCHP from last season, there is a good comparison. I would say that 2010 is light years ahead of 2009. I am sure many of the other seasons were like 2009
Quoting IKE:


But then IF nothing develops by July 1st, 2010, the downcasters will show up and then they will be rebutted by the argument that 99% of the season happens after July 1st and we're not in the heart of the season yet.

Get ready!


I think the season will get off to a very slow start again, mainly because most of our tropical activity in June and July is Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Stream driven. Both right now are running a few degrees below normal due to the active southern stream this past winter. Granted, these will quickly return to "normal" by August, so I look for a quick ramp up in the tropical activity around late August in both the Gulf and then of course we'll see what the Cape Verde season brings. Still way too many variables for this season. Folks seem to be focusing on the only one or two right now.
Good morning! Looks like Australia will have some company in a few days! Thankfully TC Ului has weakened quite a bit over the last few days, but they're going to have a CAT 2 at the very least in 72 hrs!

Our 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season looks to be a lot more active than last year! Hopefully, people will be civilized this year, or admin will be kicking them out.
Quoting Chigz:
atmoaggie:

Chill dude!

Yes, agreed that comparison to June was not wise but SSTs and hence TCHP this year so far are def higher than even 2005 were at this stage and if you extrapolate (also not wise to do) you can just imagine what June would look like..! :)

Okay, you're right.

Just growing tired of the doom and gloom on a number of fronts...

The Caribbean has a lacking second rainy season with strong El Ninos, but a wet early rainy season as El Nino modulates. Could actually see instances of the Caribbean not warming as much as normal come May and June this year with the presence of more than normal amount of clouds, rain, wind.

Science source: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/91016457/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0

"The Caribbean rainfall season is best characterized by its bimodal nature, with an initial peak in May-June and a second more prominent one in September-October. This allows for a convenient division into an early and a late rainfall season. In this study we examine the rainfall patterns of the early rainfall season (mid April to July) for links with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Whereas traditionally ENSO events have been identified with dry conditions during the later Caribbean rainfall season, recent research suggests a second signal that manifests itself as a wet early rainfall season of the year of ENSO decline (the El Niño + 1 year)."
Ive been on this blog the last week or so and the people here have covered every aspect of the tropical atlantic as it pertains to this hurricane season

so to say they are only focusing on one or two things is highly inaccurate
Quoting atmoaggie:

Okay, you're right.

Just growing tired of the doom and gloom on a number of fronts...

The Caribbean has a lacking second rainy season with strong El Ninos, but a wet early rainy season as El Nino modulates. Could actually see instances of the Caribbean not warming as much as normal come May and June this year with the presence of more than normal amount of clouds, rain, wind.

Science source: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/91016457/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0

"The Caribbean rainfall season is best characterized by its bimodal nature, with an initial peak in May-June and a second more prominent one in September-October. This allows for a convenient division into an early and a late rainfall season. In this study we examine the rainfall patterns of the early rainfall season (mid April to July) for links with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Whereas traditionally ENSO events have been identified with dry conditions during the later Caribbean rainfall season, recent research suggests a second signal that manifests itself as a wet early rainfall season of the year of ENSO decline (the El Niño + 1 year)."


Doom and Gloom? because someone posted the TCHP for March of 2010 and made the obvious comment that it is quite a bit higher than in previous years?

Not sure how you make the jump from that to "we are all going to die"
Quoting atmoaggie:

???




Wasn't supposed to be taken literally.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Here is the TCHP from last season, there is a good comparison. I would say that 2010 is light years ahead of 2009. I am sure many of the other seasons were like 2009

Nope. March 2009 is the "coolest" of the set...the rest are cooler than 2010, but only slightly so.

And it has to do with, partly, the reduced second rainy season in the Caribbean, known to be caused by a strong El Nino. I wish we had these for 1998...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Wasn't supposed to be taken literally.

Hokay.




Ok here is a comparison from last season to this season, I am sure someone could also find one for March 17th 2005, but anyway you can clearly see the difference.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Doom and Gloom? because someone posted the TCHP for March of 2010 and made the obvious comment that it is quite a bit higher than in previous years?

Not sure how you make the jump from that to "we are all going to die"

Many posts in the last few months have been about this, that, and everything else cherry-picked making 2005 look like a boring season. That, I am tired of.

You, and stormchaser, are decent posters. I thought it looked nothing like June and said so. Can we end this?

What say you about the El Nino decline = a wet May/June for the Caribbean. Going to modulate the heat some?
hi stormW !!
so that mean an active hurricane season due the high temps???
Here's the one for March 17, 2005.

Quoting atmoaggie:

Many posts in the last few months have been about this, that, and everything else cherry-picked making 2005 look like a boring season. That, I am tired of.

You, and stormchaser, are decent posters. I thought it looked nothing like June and said so. Can we end this?

What say you about the El Nino decline = a wet May/June for the Caribbean. Going to the heat some?


I do agree that the comparisons to 2005 are ridiculous too, cuz that season was an anamoly and will likely not occur again for another 50 years
Quoting hahaguy:
Here's the one for March 15, 2005.


Which is close to showing about the same total area, or more...just the color scale gives the impression of being radically different with 48 and 51 showing dark blue to the outlined lighter blue.
Both the ECM and CFS models in general show very warm SST anomalies across the tropical Atlantic during the 2010 season, along with a 200 mb anomalously high heights draped along 20N across the entire basin. If el nino fizzles things could get interesting.
Part of the reason I have a problem with AGW pushers is this:

Warm temperatures are almost always due to "Global Warming," but cold temperatures can always be easily explained away.

When Dr. Master's mentioned that the globe had its 2nd or 6th warmest February on record, that ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and the southern hemisphere land was the warmest on record, no explanation follows -- no mention of the El Nino which likely caused the 2nd warmest ocean temperatures or any other phenomena.

However, when he mentions the Northern Hemisphere having the 26th warmest period on record, he IMMEDIATELY has to qualify it by saying "The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures were due in part to the much-above average amount of snow on the ground," because supposedly saying "26th warmest" by itself is unnacceptable.

Why are there no reasons for the warm temperatures, but you go out of your way to have an explanation for the cold? Also, who's to say that the northern hemisphere cold was the cause of snow cover and not the other way around? Who's to say that the cold didn't cause the increased snow cover?
"I'll have a new post on Friday, when I plan to discuss why the Red River at Fargo, ND is now experiencing a "10-year flood" once every 2.5 years, on average."

Why do I have the feeling that the summary of the next post will be "AGW caused it"?
Why do I have the feeling that the summary of the next post will be "AGW caused it"?


hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!

;)
Quoting trumpman84:
Part of the reason I have a problem with AGW pushers is this:

Warm temperatures are almost always due to "Global Warming," but cold temperatures can always be easily explained away.

When Dr. Master's mentioned that the globe had its 2nd or 6th warmest February on record, that ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and the southern hemisphere land was the warmest on record, no explanation follows -- no mention of the El Nino which likely caused the 2nd warmest ocean temperatures or any other phenomena.

However, when he mentions the Northern Hemisphere having the 26th warmest period on record, he IMMEDIATELY has to qualify it by saying "The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures were due in part to the much-above average amount of snow on the ground," because supposedly saying "26th warmest" by itself is unnacceptable.

Why are there no reasons for the warm temperatures, but you go out of your way to have an explanation for the cold? Also, who's to say that the northern hemisphere cold was the cause of snow cover and not the other way around? Who's to say that the cold didn't cause the increased snow cover?

I like your thinking.











All North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific major hurricanes
(at least Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale)

Hi guys whats up
Quoting AussieStorm:

I like your thinking.


Ditto.


Figure 5. 1900-2009 U.S. Hurricane Strikes - West Gulf



Figure 6. 1900-2009 U.S. Hurricane Strikes - East Gulf
good morning folks!
Quoting trumpman84:
Part of the reason I have a problem with AGW pushers is this:

Warm temperatures are almost always due to "Global Warming," but cold temperatures can always be easily explained away.

When Dr. Master's mentioned that the globe had its 2nd or 6th warmest February on record, that ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and the southern hemisphere land was the warmest on record, no explanation follows -- no mention of the El Nino which likely caused the 2nd warmest ocean temperatures or any other phenomena.

However, when he mentions the Northern Hemisphere having the 26th warmest period on record, he IMMEDIATELY has to qualify it by saying "The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures were due in part to the much-above average amount of snow on the ground," because supposedly saying "26th warmest" by itself is unnacceptable.

Why are there no reasons for the warm temperatures, but you go out of your way to have an explanation for the cold? Also, who's to say that the northern hemisphere cold was the cause of snow cover and not the other way around? Who's to say that the cold didn't cause the increased snow cover?


Very well said, I agree with you
Quoting AussieStorm:

I like your thinking.

well i don't.. I think it's because we have non-controversial information about the known mechanisms ushering arctic cold into N. America that Dr. Masters is able to state that. However, the arguments about what drives the warming are a universe of logic unto their own. All the models and measurements that seek to describe warming are not at all agreed upon because of the politics involved. So what I think Dr. Masters is doing here is trying to be perhaps less scandalous by offering explanations where he can without vocal protest from either side of the AGW war camps. I also believe that is why we get a heading like '2nd or 6th..' as a means towards preemptive diplomacy. Cherry picking would have been going with one or the other only. Those are the agencies that Dr. Master's uses to report these figures, and I appreciate his consistency. Others here are welcome to post any related information that either agrees or disagrees with today's blog data.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Evening all.
Can someone explain to me how 1 organization can say February was the 6th and another says its the 2nd? Why isn't it either the 6th warmest or the 2nd warmest, not both?


It turns out there are a bunch of years clustered very close to the #2 - #6 slot, all within 0.08°C. According to NASA, here are the top 6 warmest February temperature anomalies:

1998 .80
2010 .71
1995 .70
2002 .70
2004 .66
2007 .62

The uncertainty in the global temperature measurement is +/- 0.05°C, so it would not be hard for NASA and NOAA to differ by 0.08°C.

Jeff Masters
Ojai, CA

81.6 °F
Clear

something is up with weather underground temps cause it's 46 degrees there currently.
Good morning all.

Ului doesn't look too hot. According to the Australian Bureau she has only maintained a forward speed of 2 knots towards the SSW overnight. Upwelling of colder water just keeps continuing underneath her, and you can see how much convection she has been stripped of, especially on the north side where all the cold water is left in her wake. Over the next 12 hours a sub-tropical ridge building back in to Ului's south will begin to steer and accelerate her towards the southwest. This acceleration will eventually rid her of this upwelling problem, but it has continued so long that Ului may have an even harder time getting back on her feet. I do still think Ului will make some sort of a comeback after her turn to the west. The JTWC and Australian Bureau are now both forecasting a 75-80 knot Cat 1 at landfall, but I will still maintain my forecast of a 90-knot Cat 2, as a lot can happen in 48 hours when Ului encounters warmer water.

My landfall forecast has shifted north due to Ului moving slower than expected. This is resulting in a track further to the north because the ridge building in to her south isn't just going to wait for her to reach a certain latitude before turning her west. My new forecast is shifted about 60 miles north of my previous one, which had Ului making landfall near Mackay, Queensland. I now think she'll cross the coast near Cannonvale, on a point of land sticking out from the coast. The JTWC has her making landfall closer to Ayr, which is 50 miles to the north of Cannonvale, but due to the large angle of the coast, is more than 100 miles up the coastline from Cannonvale. Keep in mind that this sharp angle of the coastline means that any deviation in storm track can mean a large shift in the landfall location and potential storm surge impacts. Ului will have to be monitored closely as she nears landfall. Landfall is expected in about 48 hours, Sunday night local time in Australia. Again this timing may differ greatly if the track shifts even by a few miles.



Cannonvale, my landfall location, is marked by the blue dot:

The Current accepted peer reviewed evidence and all the Data to date, show a warming Planet,..and the CO2 and other Gases and Toxins are the Induced Forcings that all the Climate Models to date have underestimated,and the time for the debate has passed on the Warming.

What some beat to death is the cause,and well..the Cause is evidence driven.

Science dosent tow to the individual..the Body of Science is empirical as the data.



Rising Temperatures in the Midst of Heavy Snow?

The decade from 2000 to 2009 was the warmest in the modern record. "Piecing Together the Temperature Puzzle" illustrates how NASA satellites enable us to study possible causes of climate change. The video explains what role fluctuations in the solar cycle, changes in snow and cloud cover, and rising levels of heat-trapping gases may play in contributing to climate change.

For more info on NASA and Climate Change, visit:
http://climate.nasa.gov


Official on ULUI from the JTWC
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 157.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE
IN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A SATELLITE IMAGERY FIX FROM PGTW AND INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW AND ABRF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 80 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 20P IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 20P IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. AS A STR BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
ULUI IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE. TC
20P SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN QUEENSLAND COAST BY TAU
72 AND THEN WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LAND. VWS SHOULD DECREASE AS
THE STR BUILDS TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING TC 20P TO MAINTAIN CONSTANT
INTENSITIES PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE NUMERICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN






Most recent microwave pass shows the great lack of convection to the north of Ului's center, and the general lack of convection with the storm overall. It is worth keeping in mind that this internal cause for Ului's weakening has left her central pressure quite low for a Cat 1. The JTWC and Australian Bureau have her at 963mb and 970mb, respectively. If she can get her deep convection back, it wouldn't be that hard for her to regain Cat 2 status prior to landfall.

Quoting trumpman84:
Part of the reason I have a problem with AGW pushers is this:

Warm temperatures are almost always due to "Global Warming," but cold temperatures can always be easily explained away.

When Dr. Master's mentioned that the globe had its 2nd or 6th warmest February on record, that ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and the southern hemisphere land was the warmest on record, no explanation follows -- no mention of the El Nino which likely caused the 2nd warmest ocean temperatures or any other phenomena.

However, when he mentions the Northern Hemisphere having the 26th warmest period on record, he IMMEDIATELY has to qualify it by saying "The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures were due in part to the much-above average amount of snow on the ground," because supposedly saying "26th warmest" by itself is unnacceptable.

Why are there no reasons for the warm temperatures, but you go out of your way to have an explanation for the cold? Also, who's to say that the northern hemisphere cold was the cause of snow cover and not the other way around? Who's to say that the cold didn't cause the increased snow cover?


I could have mentioned El Niño contributing to the February warmth, but I also could have mentioned that we are at the minimum of a solar cycle, and would have set a new record high temperature had we been at solar maximum. I sometimes choose not to make a detailed analysis of what's going on.

Jeff Masters
Thanks for the Learned input to some posters questions Dr. Masters.

Good morning everyone.Hope everyone is doing well.Interesting little spin between Haiti & Colombia for this time of year, hope Haiti doesn't get rained on hard.
Be sure to listen and participate in the Daily Downpour Show here on the wunderground this afternoon

The Daily Downpour Schedule

Here is the schedule for today:
All times are in Eastern
4:00-4:10: National Forecast
4:10-4:20: Dr. Masters Blog Recap
4:20-4:30: Learning Corner about Coriolis Force
4:30-5:00: The Weather Show with Shaun and Tim

Please join us. We promise you will learn something!

"It is highly uncertain what may happen to El Nino at that point, with the models split between predicting a weak El Nino, neutral conditions, or a La Nina by the height of hurricane season (August-September-October). It's worth noting that the last time we had a strong El Nino--the record-strength 1997 - 1998 event--El Nino conditions collapsed suddenly in May 1998, and a La Nina event rapidly developed during the summer of 1998. A similar chain of events is possible this year, as well. However, the El Nino of 1986 - 1987 maintained moderate strength through two consecutive hurricane seasons, and it is possible that this year's El Nino could pull a similar feat. We simply don't have the predictive skill to say what might happen to El Nino this summer."

Yes we do. NOAA just has to look at the big picture instead of looking at their CFS models and writing a forecast based off of statistical probabilities. That's what they did on this winter's forecast and they failed. They were beaten badly by Accuweather's forecast (it's the truth guys so don't argue about it please).

If NOAA would take a step back from it's fancy computers and actually forecast the weather, they would do so much better. If they were to notice that the El Nino is central-pacific based, and then realize that this is because of the cold PDO signature, and then figure out that it's a reactionary El Nino, then they would realize that it's only a short-lived event. Almost everyone else knew last fall that this El Nino would come and go, just like that. It's not a multi-season event this time. The central-pacific based or "Modoki" El Nino is also a big part of explaining why it resulted in such a cold winter for the eastern United States.

But no, NOAA is all about statistical probability now. Just look at their winter or hurricane season forecasts. It's all statistical probabilities and computer forecasts. I hate to bash them but it's true, and I honestly hope they change some of this stuff so they can get better at what they do, not to say they don't already do a great job. I just think they could be so much better than they are right now.
Mark your calendar for the 2010 conference
March 29-April 2 * Hilton Orlando, Orlando, Florida






Purpose of the Conference

The primary goal of the National Hurricane Conference is to improve hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in order to save lives and property in the United States and the tropical islands of the Caribbean and Pacific. In addition, the conference serves as a national forum for federal, state and local officials to exchange ideas and recommend new policies to improve Emergency Management.

To accomplish these goals, the annual conference emphasizes:



* Lessons Learned from Hurricane Strikes.

* State of the art programs worthy of emulation.

* New ideas being tested or considered.

* Information about new or ongoing assistance programs.

* The ABC's of hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation -- in recognition of the fact that there is a continual turnover of emergency management leadership and staff.
Quoting hurricane23:
Both the ECM and CFS models in general show very warm SST anomalies across the tropical Atlantic during the 2010 season, along with a 200 mb anomalously high heights draped along 20N across the entire basin. If el nino fizzles things could get interesting.


Which is essentially what most of us with any idea how this works have been saying...

1. Given the moderation of the El Nino, possibly a shift to neuitral in the next 3-5 months
2. Given the higher SSTs
3. Given the the radical THCP values in the Carib
4. Gien the indication that the AB high/CONUS trof may be weaker/further north, respectively, it might be a rough season, with the emphasis on the "might"

"February sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record"

Right you are, but the sea ice has made a significant recovery since the start of march.


Florida’s Citizens to offer $2 billion in bonds to brace for hurricanes

Posted: March 18, 2010




With hurricane season approaching, Florida’s Citizens Property Insurance Corp. plans to sell $2 billion in tax-exempt bonds to add to its reserves for claims.

Citizens is the state’s nonprofit, tax-exempt government corporation providing insurance protection to Florida property owners.

Citizens will sell senior secured obligations including $400 million in floating-rate notes and $200 million in short-term securities, according to Bloomberg, citing a Standard & Poor’s report.

While it has been four years without a major hurricane in the state, recent predictions say two to three storms could occur during the pending hurricane season of June 1 to Nov. 30.

Citizens last sold bonds in April, according to Bloomberg, when it fell short of a planned $2 billion issue. The insurer won approval from Florida legislators to raise rates for the first time in two years in 2009, and can choose to levy emergency assessments on nearly all of its policies in the state to pay off its debt, if needed.
Experts say storm modeling needs improvement


BATON ROUGE During hurricanes and tropical storms, surge predictions can vary in accuracy, and just a few feet can make a big difference for communities like Terrebonne and Lafourche.

A day before Hurricane Ike struck Terrebonne and Lafourche in 2008, storm-surge predictions varied from 5 to 8 feet for Terrebonne.

The actual surge was closer to 10 feet, which overtopped all of the community's levees.

Storm surge accounts for 90 percent of deaths during hurricanes and has done extensive damage to the Louisiana coast. A National Hurricane Center scientist said Tuesday that the ability to accurately predict storm surge needs to improve so the threat can be efficiently communicated to coastal communities.

Jamie Rhome, a storm-surge specialist with the National Hurricane Center, spoke at the 2010 Central Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Conference in Baton Rouge. The two-day conference brings together federal hurricane experts, academics, emergency officials and local government representatives to discuss issues facing the state during the next hurricane season.

Among local officials attending were Terrebonne Levee Director Reggie Dupre, South Lafourche Levee Director Windell Curole, North Lafourche Levee Manager Dwayne Bourgeois and Terrebonne Emergency Director Earl Eues.

When local emergency officials call me, they want to know: How much water will there be? When will it come and when will it leave? What will the impacts be to my area? And how should I respond? Rhome said.


Quoting JeffMasters:


It turns out there are a bunch of years clustered very close to the #2 - #6 slot, all within 0.08°C. According to NASA, here are the top 6 warmest February temperature anomalies:

1998 .80
2010 .71
1995 .70
2002 .70
2004 .66
2007 .62

The uncertainty in the global temperature measurement is +/- 0.05°C, so it would not be hard for NASA and NOAA to differ by 0.08°C.

Jeff Masters


The globe recorded its sixth warmest February since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated February 2010 the second warmest, behind 1998.

I didn't know measurements or instruments even existed in the 1800's with any accuracy proven. What method was being used in the 1800's that we can say was accurate to the decimal point. Was they using decimal points in temperature readings to the 100's like some post i have seen. How accuarte is this really!
Hurricane Preparation

By Charles Zusman

March 17, 2010, 5:39PM
Concerned about hurricanes? Read this...from BoatUS...

First Hurricane Season Forecasts Rattle Boaters, Marina Operators

BoatU.S. Can Help You Prepare

ALEXANDRIA, VA, March 17, 2010 - With the release of several early seasonal hurricane forecasts for this year, boaters and marina operators are finding out they could face a much different scenario than last year's relatively mild storm season.

Accuweather, a nationwide weather service, recently reported it expects 2010 to be an "extreme season" with as many as 18 named storms, a 100% increase over 2009. BoatU.S., a national boat owners group with experience in hurricane preparation and post-hurricane recovery efforts says that most boaters and marinas can survive by being better prepared. To help with this task, the Association has some free online "tools" available at the BoatU.S. "Hurricane Resource Center" at http://www.BoatUS.com/Hurricanes .

The Web site offers easily downloadable storm planning materials including a hurricane preparation worksheet, an in-depth Guide to Preparing Boats and Marinas for Hurricanes, and checklists for what to do before and after a hurricane strikes. Sample hurricane plans for boat and yacht clubs as well as up-to-the-minute storm tracking tools with live satellite images are also online in one convenient Web site.

While the safest location for a boat during a storm is on land, boaters may also want to ask their insurer now if their policy helps pay some of the costs of a storm-related haul-out. Boat owners seeking the services of a professional delivery captain to move a vessel to a safe "hurricane hole" can go to the BoatU.S. Captains Locator athttp://www.BoatUS.com/procaptains/ . If moving the boat is not possible, BoatU.S. suggests owners contact their marina now to enroll in hurricane "clubs" and coordinate storm preparations.

Help for Boat Clubs, Yards and Marinas

The free 24-page What Works, A Guide to Preparing Marinas, Yacht Clubs, and Boats for Hurricanes shares success stories as well as failures of dozens of marinas and clubs that have experienced a hurricane over last two decades. The guide covers floating docks with tall pilings, strapping down boats ashore, developing hurricane clubs for customers, dealing with boats at fixed docks, moving boats to hurricane holes, and how to install better moorings.

A special legal section, "Protecting Yourself from the Storm," offers information equally important to any marina owner or yacht club leadership -- how to protect themselves from vessel owners seeking compensation for hurricane-related damage.

Also included is a sample Marina Hurricane Preparation Plan that can be customized for any boating facility, as well as a Hurricane Preparation Worksheet that can be copied and given to individual boat owners.

To download a copy of the guide, go to www.BoatUS.com/hurricanes . To get a paper copy, call 703-823-9550 ext. 3525.
The majority of our atmosphere is 10 miles thick.

CO2 is a heat trapping gas.

CO2 levels have risen over the last 200 years due mainly to the burning of fossil fuels.

Seems like people tend to forget, or choose to ignore, these absolutes.

Any thoughts that temps are going to turn around and head down are foolish.
It is interesting to note that 4 of our top analog years for this hurricane season fall into the top 10 years of north Atlantic A.C.E. (Accumulated Cyclone Energy). The list of ACE values goes back 70 years to 1940.

2005, of course 1st place.

1995, 3rd place.

1998, 7th place.

1964, 10th place.

If we want to count 2003, that year was 8th place on the list. Now it is true that most of these years are recent, and have taken place after the active period in Atlantic hurricanes began in 1995, when the AMO went warm. Hence they are all high up on the list, but that is just another reason why we should be wary of this year, and be well-prepared should the worst happen.



(Reuters) - A Russian Soyuz space capsule carrying a U.S. astronaut and a Russian cosmonaut from the International Space Station landed safely in Kazakhstan on Thursday.



The capsule -- ferrying Expedition 22 Commander Jeff Williams and Flight Engineer Maxim Suraev -- landed in the vast steppe near the town of Arkalyk in northern Kazakhstan as planned, Russia's Mission Control said.

"The descent capsule of the Soyuz TMA-16 ... has landed," an announcer at Mission Control outside Moscow said to applause from space officials and controllers. "The capsule is lying on its side."

The capsule, charred on re-entry, ended its three-and-a-half-hour ride to Earth in a puff of dust after activating its boosters to cushion the touchdown.

"The crew is safe. They say they are in a great mood," a Mission Control official told Reuters by telephone several minutes later, while rescue teams were opening the hatch of the capsule and preparing for medical checks on the crew.

Three men remain aboard the $100 billion, 16-nation ISS: U.S. Flight Engineer Timothy Creamer, Japanese Flight Engineer Soichi Noguchi and Russian Flight Engineer Oleg Kotov.

The expedition, which is numbered 23 and is led by Kotov, will expand to a six-member crew on April 4 after three others -- Russians Alexander Skvortsov and Mikhail Korniyenko and U.S. astronaut Tracy Caldwell Dyson -- arrive at the ISS aboard a Soyuz spacecraft.

Russia will ferry all crews to the ISS aboard its single-use Soyuz spaceships after U.S. space agency NASA mothballs its shuttle fleet by the end of this year.

Earlier this month Russia announced a halt to space tourism to free capacity for ISS flights. It plans to double the number of launches to four this year as permanent crews of professionals aboard the expanded ISS are set to rise to six.

(Reporting by Dmitry Solovyov; editing by Michael Stott)
Quoting FatPenguin:
The majority of our atmosphere is 10 miles thick.

CO2 is a heat trapping gas.

CO2 levels have risen over the last 200 years due mainly to the burning of fossil fuels.

Seems like people tend to forget, or choose to ignore, these absolutes.

Any thoughts that temps are going to turn around and head down are foolish.


Fossil fuel CO2 contributes, at most, 5%.

Mainly natural.
As one might say "IT'S THE SUN STUPID"





Updated 2010 Mar 17 2201 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2010

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1054 (N15W37) was in a gradual decay phase with decreased spot count and area. Region 1056 (N17E46) was numbered today and is magnetically classified as a Beta.

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares for the next three days (18-20 March).

Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes for the past 24 hours. There was an isolated active period at high latitudes between 0300Z - 0600Z. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed elevated velocities around 520 km/s and densities around (1-3 p/cc). These signatures are consistent with a coronal hole high-speed stream, presumably from the northward extension of the southern polar coronal hole.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (18 March) due to the arrival of a partial-halo CME observed on 13 March. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on days two and three (19-20 March).
Good afternoon! It's beautiful weather here at last!

I'm not getting on the blogs much -- the Son is visiting here and brought the Sun from Maui -- anyone doing the brackets for the NCAA tournament?

GO TERPS!

Enjoy your day!
Quoting Seastep:


Fossil fuel CO2 contributes, at most, 5%.

Mainly natural.

5% of overall CO2?
Or 5% of the CO2 increase.
Important distinction there.
Quoting Seastep:


Fossil fuel CO2 contributes, at most, 5%.

Mainly natural.

I am thankful we're worried about a gas with such low atmospheric concentration and greenhouse impact. We would be talking about cataclysmic warming otherwise. Instead, we are talking about the kind of warming that won't destroy our species, but will certainly impact our way of life, and the lives of countless species worldwide, many of which we depend on. I just think it's a fallacy being communicated to down play CO2 using atmospheric concentration and greenhouse impact figures. Just because a number is small, it doesn't amount to even a hill of beans if it's out of context.
Quoting Minnemike:

I am thankful we're worried about a gas with such low atmospheric concentration and greenhouse impact. We would be talking about cataclysmic warming otherwise. Instead, we are talking about the kind of warming that won't destroy our species, but will certainly impact our way of life, and the lives of countless species worldwide, many of which we depend on. I just think it's a fallacy being communicated to down play CO2 using atmospheric concentration and greenhouse impact figures. Just because a number is small, it doesn't amount to even a hill of beans if it's out of context.

Right. In a system as complex as our atmosphere's, even a small change can have a gigantic impact upon the end result. To make an analogy... when building a bridge, if the alignment of two steel beams is off by an inch or two, the entire bridge can end up failing catastrophically down the road.
Quoting jeffs713:

Right. In a system as complex as our atmosphere's, even a small change can have a gigantic impact upon the end result. To make an analogy... when building a bridge, if the alignment of two steel beams is off by an inch or two, the entire bridge can end up failing catastrophically down the road.

yah! Minnemike has seen that analogy play out with his own two eyes. I work on the riverside within a mile downstream of the infamous I-35W collapse.. as a side note
alaskas plenty cold funny the itarods had the coldest race in many yrs. insurance? state farm dumped us now citizens said they gave our acc/ to a small insurance company ive never heard of. oh its fun to live on a spoil island lobos
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Good afternoon! It's beautiful weather here at last!

I'm not getting on the blogs much -- the Son is visiting here and brought the Sun from Maui -- anyone doing the brackets for the NCAA tournament?

GO TERPS!

Enjoy your day!


Go Terps is right!
Quoting Patrap:

Florida’s Citizens to offer $2 billion in bonds to brace for hurricanes

Posted: March 18, 2010




With hurricane season approaching, Florida’s Citizens Property Insurance Corp. plans to sell $2 billion in tax-exempt bonds to add to its reserves for claims.

Citizens is the state’s nonprofit, tax-exempt government corporation providing insurance protection to Florida property owners.

Citizens will sell senior secured obligations including $400 million in floating-rate notes and $200 million in short-term securities, according to Bloomberg, citing a Standard & Poor’s report.

While it has been four years without a major hurricane in the state, recent predictions say two to three storms could occur during the pending hurricane season of June 1 to Nov. 30.

Citizens last sold bonds in April, according to Bloomberg, when it fell short of a planned $2 billion issue. The insurer won approval from Florida legislators to raise rates for the first time in two years in 2009, and can choose to levy emergency assessments on nearly all of its policies in the state to pay off its debt, if needed.


Finally being pro-active. Charlie Crist deserves NONE of that credit. Although, I am sure he'll coin it.
Quoting leftovers:
alaskas plenty cold funny the itarods had the coldest race in many yrs


It's amazing what happened as soon as the trough shifted north for a week and the blocking wasn't allowed to funnel arctic air into the lower 48. It dammed up here instead, leading to a horrendous week here while the lower 48 enjoyed only its 2nd week of nice weather all winter.
Chris Hughes's Act III -- Jumo.com, A Social Platform For Global Volunteerism

UPDATED*

Chris Hughes, all of 26, has been looking for his Act III.

Act I was co-founding Facebook while at Harvard with this roommate Mark Zuckerberg. Act II was taking a leave from the social networking behemoth and joining Barack Obama's presidential campaign, where the fresh-faced Southerner from Hickory, N.C. became part of an A-list new media team. There, he served as the architect of My.BarackObama.com -- or MyBO, the most successful network of volunteers and grassroots army that American presidential campaigning had ever seen.

And Act III? "I knew i wanted to do something at the nexus of what I call global development and technology," Hughes told HuffPost Tech in a phone interview yesterday. "By global development, I'm talking about a broad umbrella -- health care, agriculture, education. I just knew I wanted to do something in that space, and I spent the last year traveling" (in Kenya and Senegal, which he fell in love with) "and talking to people" (such as Jeff Sachs, the prominent economist at Columbia University who's been named one of the "100 Most Influential People In The World" by Time magazine -- twice). Hughes added:" I spent the past year researching, studying, learning everything I could in the space."

Today, he announced the "soft launch" of Jumo -- in the African language of Yoruba, Jumo translates to "together in concert." Think of the site as philanthropy, volunteerism and social networking all rolled up into one. It's a platform, he says, that will connect people and organizations around the world. And Hughes is arguably the most well-known tech entrepreneur to enter the still evolving global space. The site, which is currently just a few pages, will launch fully in the fall, sometime between September and October.

In an e-mail blast early this morning, Hughes wrote:


I just wanted to let you know about my new startup called Jumo. We're announcing today that we're building an online platform to connect individuals and organizations working to change the world.

We believe we can leverage the participatory web to foster long-term engagement with the issues and organizations that are relevant to each individual. Jumo has the potential to unlock a great deal of time, skills, and financial resources previously unavailable to organizations around the world.

When you get a second, take a look.

We'll be launching the site with full capabilities this fall, but I wanted to let you know that we're officially getting underway. If you know anyone who may be interested in working with us, please send them our jobs page to get in contact with us.

Talk to you soon,

Chris

P.S. I'd love for you to forward this email to friends, become our fan on Facebook , and let your friends on Twitter know. The more people that know about what we're doing, the stronger the team we'll be able to build.

Note how the e-mail was signed -- simply, "Chris." Perfectly informal, perfectly Hughes.

As it stands, the non-profit, non-partisan organization has a staff of three -- and that includes Hughes, who says he's looking to hire more people in Jumo's office space in New York's trendy SoHo neighborhood. Hughes has raised more than $2 million from foundations and individuals -- some $500,000 from individual donations alone. "We're not disclosing their names," he said. "They didn't give the money to get publicity." And if there's one underlying principle behind the whole new venture, he continued, it's this: one-on-one personal connection on an interest-level basis. Your interest, your time, your money, match with what's needed anywhere in the world. On Jumo, you can find a small African group paying women to distribute condoms in their neighborhoods. Or a group organizing recreational activities in the slums of Mumbai. Or a group like Vittana (voted as a HuffPost Game Changer last year), a micro-financing service for students who can't afford to go college in countries such as Nicaragua and Vietnam.

"Too often, when people think about helping the world, they think of a photo of a hungry, malnourished African kid, send $10 and call it a day," Hughes told me. "That's the old model. There are lot of people across America and in other countries who want to help, and I would argue that the Internet has not caught up with them. So the goal for us is to build a central place where individuals can come in and discover and organization or an issue that's personally relevant to them. And then connect."

In a way, Jumo is akin to Facebook, in that the social networking site does not create content but instead enables users to share their content and then organizes it.

But Jumo, Hughes said, is not like Facebook Causes -- the Facebook application founded in 2007 that allows users to create grassroots groups in support of issues. For Hughes, users must first discover a cause, then develop a relationship with the organization before giving money and/or time. "I think Facebook Causes has blazed the trail, but Causes, in my view, comes at very end of the donor experience."

He expects that at least "a few hundred organizations" will be listed and organized on Jumo come fall.

"There are some social ventures right now, like Engineers Without Borders and Scientists Without Borders, both modeled after Doctors Without Borders," Sachs, who's traveling in Japan, said in a phone interview. "But given Chris's huge talent in this social networking area, his venture, I think, will be unique. Jumo could be truly linking volunteers and donors with organizations, or it could be that feelers are going to come out of the villages themselves and seek help and partnerships. Technology, as we know, has made the world smaller, and I think we're going to find that lots of new connections will be made."

Added Morley Winograd, a former senior policy adviser to Vice President Al Gore and co-author of the groundbreaking and prescient book "Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube and the Future of American Politics": "In a way, this new social networking site is a natural extension of what Hughes did during the campaign: connect people by their interests and make them care about issues, all supported by technology. And I think this also speaks to the fact that Hughes is a member of the Millennial generation that cares a lot about volunteerism. Many members of this generation chooses activities with a social purpose in mind."
yea you can freeze alot of ice cubes its been a cold winter
Quoting stormpetrol:
Good morning everyone.Hope everyone is doing well.Interesting little spin between Haiti & Colombia for this time of year, hope Haiti doesn't get rained on hard.

hey man how ya doing I AM TIRED OF COLD FRONTS AND NO RAIN AND WARM WINDS by the way what spin THERE IS A SPIN PLEASE SHOW ME. :)


2010 17 MAR



2009 17 MAR



97. Very interesting, Patrap. Sounds a bit like www.idealist.org, which has been struggling. A venture like this without the gol'darn farmville and mafia wars and hacking might just be more than okay.

Too beautiful to stay in; have a good one!
Here we go. Ului is firing up that convection directly over the center. These are the first reds on this particular IR enhancement that we've seen in 6 hours, and the first dark grays in days.

And now, if Ului does try to strengthen over warmer water, we could see a quick ramp-up to Cat 2 because her central pressure is still all the way down in the 960s or 970s. What happens is her wind field got really spread out when she got weakened, and now convection is clustering in a small radius about the center. When you start focusing a bunch of upward motion right near the center but not far away, this tightens the core, and then that upward motion is compensated for by sinking air on the outside edge of the storm. This raises surface pressures on the edge of the storm but lowers them at the center, creating a tighter pressure gradient and faster winds more appropriate for her central pressure. This his how Ului could make a comeback, if the water is warm enough.



^^Click for Loop^^
105. MTWX
Saturday night is a night to watch for the mid south!!!

Link
anyone in fort lauderdale around? I'm seeing small white particles floating around in the air. It breaks apart like ash if you touch it but is extremely light and floats around very easily. Any idea what it is and where its coming from?
"I sometimes choose not to make a detailed analysis of what's going on" is not a LEARNED input. It's called cherry picking and leads learned people to doubt other statements and comments that otherwise would not draw a raised eyebrow...
Quoting leelee75k:
anyone in fort lauderdale around? I'm seeing small white particles floating around in the air. It breaks apart like ash if you touch it but is extremely light and floats around very easily. Any idea what it is and where its coming from?


Yes, there are controlled burns around Lake Okeechobee and the wnw winds are pushing the ash into your area.
109. MTWX
Quoting leelee75k:
anyone in fort lauderdale around? I'm seeing small white particles floating around in the air. It breaks apart like ash if you touch it but is extremely light and floats around very easily. Any idea what it is and where its coming from?

Sounds like ash to me... Is anything in your area burning??
110. MTWX
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yes, there are controlled burns around Lake Okeechobee and the wnw winds are pushing the ash into your area.

I was looking for anything in the local news... Nice to know for people in that area...Thanks
thanks, I didn't know anything was burning around here and I can't smell any smoke, just saw the floating white things all over the place.

glad to hear the burns are controlled btw. thanks again
Good afternoon, I know this question is off-topic. May I ask the Firefox 3.6 users out there, what is you're opinion of Firefox, compared to the regular IE? So far is seems quite a bit faster than IE.
113. MTWX
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good afternoon, I know this question is off-topic. May I ask the Firefox 3.6 users out there, what is you're opinion of Firefox, compared to the regular IE? So far is seems quite a bit faster than IE.

I have a friend that uses firefox... I like it.
I actually concidered switching from IE.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good afternoon, I know this question is off-topic. May I ask the Firefox 3.6 users out there, what is you're opinion of Firefox, compared to the regular IE? So far is seems quite a bit faster than IE.


Oh anyone that still uses IE doesn't know what they're missing. Firefox is more secure and very much faster. Also, IE has problems like stretching these very WU blogs when large images or text are present. Other browsers like Firefox or Chrome don't have a stretching problem. IE also doesn't display special html tags well when users use special effects in their comments.

Not to mention Firefox's amazing number of add-ons to customize your experience.
Quoting MTWX:

I have a friend that uses firefox... I like it.
I actually concidered switching from IE.


I am just experimenting with it, but it seems so much faster than IE when loading the web pages!!
Quoting Levi32:


Oh anyone that still uses IE doesn't know what they're missing. Firefox is more secure and very much faster. Also, IE has problems like stretching these very WU blogs when large images or text are present. IE also doesn't display special html tags well when users use special effects in their comments.


Thanks Levi! I understand "winter" finally arrived in AK, just as spring has shown up in the lower 48! How cold is it in Homer, AK now? It is warmer today in New York City, NY, than in the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX area, 67F in NYC and 61F at the DFW AP!
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good afternoon, I know this question is off-topic. May I ask the Firefox 3.6 users out there, what is you're opinion of Firefox, compared to the regular IE? So far is seems quite a bit faster than IE.


It seems to me like it's faster. Things load quicker. I prefer it over IE.
Firefox is without doubt superior. Swap, and never look back! ..And learn what add-ons are right for you! Add-ons for me make Firefox what it is. (but be warned, some are safer than others!)
One thing I forgot to mention ... AdBlock ... you will not regret it ;)
Another outbreak of severe wx looks to be on the way Saturday and Sunday. We should see 55 to 65 degree dewpoints as this system moves in Saturday.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Thanks Levi! I understand "winter" finally arrived in AK, just as spring has shown up in the lower 48! How cold is it in Homer, AK now? It is warmer today in New York City, NY, than in the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX area, 67F in NYC and 61F at the DFW AP!


Indeed it got very cold and we got 4 feet of snow in 5 days here, but it has since been nice and sunny with warmer temps the last couple days. We're near normal right now at 31 degrees. The eastern United States is in for anther shot of winter next week before Spring moves in for good. Then we'll all warm up.
Interesting for march, there's a little disturbance S of hispaniola, headind slowly NNE. I watch it since yesterday as it was still over the northern cost of south america.
Quoting CaribBoy:
Interesting for march, there's a little disturbance S of hispaniola, heading slowly NNE. I watch it since yesterday as it was still over the northern cost of south america.
Quoting Levi32:


Indeed it got very cold and we got 4 feet of snow in 5 days here, but it has since been nice and sunny with warmer temps the last couple days. We're near normal right now at 31 degrees. The eastern United States is in for anther shot of winter next week before Spring moves in for good. Then we'll all warm up.


Due to our lovely "Modiki El Nino", that just doesn't want to go away, at least just yet, I for see an early-Spring full of "roller-coaster" temps, with a dash a severe weather to go with it from time to time!!

I lived in the NYC Metro area, from birth in 1961, until 1979. Spring in NYC, NY is usually pretty chilly throughout almost all of Mar, into mid Apr, then temps warm up through the 60's by mid April, into the 70's to near 80F in June, into the mid 80's in July.

I now live in the DFW, TX area. Our normal high now is 69F, normal low is 48F. That will gradually warm through the 70's into early Apr, the 80's by early May, into the 90F range by Jun 10, then settling into the normal high of 96F, normal low of 75F, from mid July, through Aug 10th!

And living in Tornado Alley is VERY interesting!! Dallas/Tarrant Counties have a scattering of EF-1 through EF-2 tornadoes every spring, severe thunderstorms and hail! It is truly an adventure from late Mar-early June each and every year!!
124. MTWX
Quoting Bordonaro:


Due to our lovely "Modiki El Nino", that just doesn't want to go away, at least just yet, I for see an early-Spring full of "roller-coaster" temps, with a dash a severe weather to go with it from time to time!!

I lived in the NYC Metro area, from birth in 1961, until 1979. Spring in NYC, NY is usually pretty chilly throughout almost all of Mar, into mid Apr, then temps warm up through the 60's by mid April, into the 70's to near 80F in June, into the mid 80's in July.

I now live in the DFW, TX area. Our normal high now is 69F, normal low is 48F. That will gradually warm through the 70's into early Apr, the 80's by early May, into the 90F range by Jun 10, then settling into the normal high of 96F, normal low of 75F, from mid July, through Aug 10th!

And living in Tornado Alley is VERY interesting!! Dallas/Tarrant Counties have a scattering of EF-1 through EF-2 tornadoes every spring, severe thunderstorms and hail! It is truly an adventure from late Mar-early June each and every year!!

I'm Jealous!!!
Quoting MTWX:

I'm Jealous!!!


PLEASE, don't be!! We have about 94 days of temps over 90F, about 16 of those days will be over 100F, usually between 100-107F.

We are at about 33N latitude. We sit right near the wonderful upper level High that parks over 30N latitude during the summer months. We have had as many as 56 days over 100F, back in 1998. And the rain almost becomes non-existent from mid Jun-early Sept every year!!
Quoting CaribBoy:
Interesting for march, there's a little disturbance S of hispaniola, headind slowly NNE. I watch it since yesterday as it was still over the northern cost of south america.


Interesting little thingy....it's on the old frontal boundary extending down into the Caribbean, under a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet. It might bring some rain to Haiti, which isn't great news.
Quoting Levi32:


Interesting little thingy....it's on the old frontal boundary extending down into the Caribbean, under a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet. It might bring some rain to Haiti, which isn't great news.


Levi, what's going on with TC Ului? Do yo have a recent update? Latest satellite picture appears to be "messed up"!!
Ului seems to be consolidating its core again and regaining some structure

Will have to see from this point if it will intensify. The current forecast track looks good for now
My March Madness bracket is already a bust....geesh!
Quoting Bordonaro:


PLEASE, don't be!! We have about 94 days of temps over 90F, about 16 of those days will be over 100F, usually between 100-107F.

We are at about 33N latitude. We sit right near the wonderful upper level High that parks over 30N latitude during the summer months. We have had as many as 56 days over 100F, back in 1998. And the rain almost becomes non-existent from mid Jun-early Sept every year!!

Or you can go a couple of hundred miles south of there, and experience the same temps, but with 90% humidity, and a 20% chance of rain (that just makes it more muggy) every day!
Quoting TampaSpin:
My March Madness bracket is already a bust....geesh!


So far I only lost Notre Dame lol.
132. RM706
Radio show time ... http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html
Quoting jeffs713:

Or you can go a couple of hundred miles south of there, and experience the same temps, but with 90% humidity, and a 20% chance of rain (that just makes it more muggy) every day!

You sure you're not talking about Mobile Alabama? =P
Quoting TampaSpin:
My March Madness bracket is already a bust....geesh!


You musta picked the same teams I did...
Quoting hahaguy:


So far I only lost Notre Dame lol.


Yep lost that one and the Gator game.....BYU is a small team but, they can shoot the ball!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Yep lost that one and the Gator game.....BYU is a small team but, they can shoot the ball!


I was surprised the gators even made it in.
Quoting SouthALWX:

You sure you're not talking about Mobile Alabama? =P

Well, kinda.

More like everywhere along the Gulf Coast. (specifically about Houston, TX, though)
Quoting TampaTom:


You musta picked the same teams I did...


I think it was the trapped CO2 gases that caused it. It must be GW the cause.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Levi, what's going on with TC Ului? Do yo have a recent update? Latest satellite picture appears to be "messed up"!!


My post #104 on this page talks about what's happening right now. I will be continuing to watch Ului's progress. She is currently tracking south of the JTWC's forecasted path as well. That's one of the reasons my landfall forecast is not as far north as their's.

IR Floater Loop, turn on "Tropical Forecast Points" layer.
140. xcool




Technical ENSO Update
18 March 2010

> Current conditions
> Expected conditions

Current Conditions
As of mid-March 2010, SSTs are still well above-average throughout the central and most of the eastern equatorial Pacific, indicative of moderate El Nio conditions. Weak El Nio conditions emerged in mid-June and lasted until October, when they increased to moderate to strong levels due to the accumulated effects of intermittently strong westerly wind anomalies in the western and/or central Pacific. The traditional Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) became negative during October, and has remained negative since then. The equatorial SOI also became negative in October, returned to near-average during November and December, then becomame strongly negative in January and February. Positive convection anomalies were observed intermittently near and just west of the dateline between June and September, and became somewhat stronger and more persistent since October. Since late January, the convection anomalies became stronger and have been located near and just east of the dateline so as to efficiently influence the zonal and meridional atmospheric circulation patterns in the manner observed during previous moderate to strong El Nino episodes. Equatorial Pacific oceanic heat content had been above-average since early in 2009, and became more strongly so after October. During January and early February 2010 the heat content anomaly somewhat decreased, but since mid-February has not decreased further, remaining well above average. This pause in the depletion of anomalous sub-surface heat portends a likely continuation of positive SST anomalies during the remainder of March and possibly through much of April.

For February 2009, the SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was 1.23 C, sufficient to be classified as moderate El Nio conditions for this time of year. For the Dec-Jan-Feb season the anomaly was 1.54 degrees C. Currently the IRI's definition of El Nio conditions rests on an index of SST anomalies, averaged over the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W), exceeding the warmest 25%-ile of the historical distribution, and similarly for La Nia relative to the 25%-ile coldest conditions in the historical distribution. The NINO3.4 anomaly necessary to qualify as La Nia or El Nio conditions for the Mar-Apr-May and the Apr-May-Jun seasons are approximately (-0.40C, 0.40) and (-0.45, 0.45), respectively.


Expected Conditions
The most recent weekly SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region is 1.2 C, indicating moderate El Nio conditions in the tropical Pacific, essentially unchanged from the 1.23 C level observed in February. What is the outlook for the ENSO status going forward? Although the spatial pattern of SST anomalies and subsurface temperature anomalies became similar to those reminiscent of El Nio events somewhat late in this ENSO cycle (January and February), they have done so with considerable anomaly magnitude, representing greater late-cycle endurance of the event than observed in some past events of similar strength. Postitive convection anomalies continue presently near and just east of the dateline. Owing to the air-sea coupling associated with this canonical configuration, the atmosphere has been acting as previously observed during moderate to strong El Nino events in terms of teleconnection patterns of climate both near and remote from the tropical Pacific.

March is the time of year when existing ENSO events are often in their waning phase, and typically either dissipate or persist for up to two subsequent months. For this event, it seems most likely that El Nio conditions will persist at least through April 2010, and, given the still moderately strong subsurface anomalies resulting from the strong westerly wind anomalies from late January through February, may endure through early or middle May. While persistence of El Nio conditions through a good portion of northern spring seems likely, a double-year event (such as what occurred in 1986-87-88) does not appear likely, as negative subsurface sea temperature anomalies reside in the western tropical Pacific, and the downwelling Kelvin wave associated with the above-mentioned zonal wind anomalies will have reached the South American coast by the end of May (still within the northern spring transition period), with no additional wind-induced pulses in view at present.

Presently, the models and observations taken together indicate probabilities of about 85% for maintaining El Nio conditions and about 14% for dissipation to ENSO-neutral conditions for the Mar-Apr-May season in progress. Going forward, probabilities for El Nio decrease to approximately 50% by Apr-May-Jun, falling to climatological probabilities of 25% by Jun-Jul-Aug. Probabilities for La Nia conditions are predicted to be negligible until May-Jun-Jul, when they rise to 10%. By Jul-Aug-Sep, the probability for La Nia begins exceeding that for El Nio, and during the later portion of 2010 the La Nia and El Nio probabilities become 30% and 20%, respectively.


The above assessment was made in part on the basis of an examination of the current forecasts of ENSO prediction models as well as the observed conditions. For purposes of this discussion, El Nio SST conditions are defined as SSTs in the NINO3.4 region being in the warmest 25% of their climatological distribution for the 3-month period in question over the 1950-present timeframe. The corresponding cutoff in terms of degrees C of SST anomaly varies seasonally, being close to 0.40 degrees C in boreal late-spring to early-summer season and as high as 0.75 degrees C in late boreal autumn. La Nia conditions are defined as NINO3.4 region SSTs being in the coolest 25% of the climatological distribution. Neutral conditions occupy the remaining 50% of the distribution. These definitions were developed such that the most commonly accepted El Nio and La Nia episodes are reproduced.

The models are in rough agreement in their ENSO forecasts through the first few seasons of the 10-month forecast period, but show large differences beginning in northern summer. The statistical and dynamical models agree in predicting weakening El Nio conditions during the next 1 to 3 months. However, the details of the timing and the rate of dissipation differ among models, and there is great disagreement in the outlook for the coming ENSO cycle from northern summer onward: Some models predict neutral ENSO, some La Nina, and some a second year of El Nino. For the current Mar-Apr-May season, 90% of the models are predicting El Nio conditions; none predict ENSO-neutral conditions. At lead times of 4 or more months into the future, statistical and dynamical models that incorporate information about the ocean's observed sub-surface thermal structure generally exhibit higher predictive skill than those that do not. Among models that do use sub-surface temperature information, 3 of 13 (23%) indicate El Nio conditions for the Jul-Aug-Sep season, 9 of 13 (69%) predict ENSO-neutral SSTs, and 1 of 13 (8%) predict La Nia conditions. (Note 1). Caution is advised in interpreting the distribution of model forecasts as the actual probabilities. At longer leads, the skill of the models degrades, and skill uncertainty must be convolved with the uncertainties from initial conditions and differing model physics, leading to more climatological probabilities in the long-lead ENSO Outlook than might be suggested by the suite of models. Furthermore, the expected skill of one model versus another has not been established using uniform validation procedures, which may cause a difference in the true probability distribution from that taken verbatim from the raw model predictions.


An alternative way to assess the probabilities of the three possible ENSO conditions is to use the mean of the forecasts of all models, and to construct a standard error function centered on that mean. The standard error would be Gaussian in shape, and would have its width determined by an estimate of overall expected model skill for the season of the year and the lead time. Higher skill would result in a relatively narrower error distribution, while low skill would result in an error distribution with width approaching that of the historical observed distribution. This method shows probabilities for El Nio at about 92% and 50% for Mar-Apr-May and Apr-May-Jun, respectively, declining to 22% by Jun-Jul-Aug and 18% by Jul-Aug-Sep. Probabilities for La Nia increase to 20-30% from Jul-Aug-Sep onward through Nov-Dec-Jan 2010/11. The same cautions mentioned above for the distribution of model forecasts apply to this alternative method of inferring probabilities, due to differing model biases and skills. In particular, this approach considers only the mean of the predictions, and not the range across the models, nor the ensemble range within individual models.


The IRI's probabilistic ENSO forecast takes into account the indications of this set of models, the outcome of the standard error approach described above, and additional factors such as the very latest observations that may have developed after the initialization times of some of the models. It indicates an 85% probability for El Nio conditions in the Mar-Apr-May season in progress, decreasing to near 32% for May-Jun-Jul 2010 and to 20% by Aug-Sep-Oct and the seasons to follow, while La Nia probabilities rise to 30% beginning Sep-Oct-Nov, remaining there through the rest of 2010. Neutral ENSO conditions have at least 50% likelihood from May-Jun-Jul onward.
141. MTWX
Quoting jeffs713:

Or you can go a couple of hundred miles south of there, and experience the same temps, but with 90% humidity, and a 20% chance of rain (that just makes it more muggy) every day!

We get the humidity here!! Temps stay 5-10 degrees cooler usually though...
These Mid-Major schools are kicking butt! If Murray State beats Vandy.......Stick a fork in most pools.......LOL


Purdy, ain’t she? So blue. And green. And yellow. And green and yellow in such organized bands across the globe.

Start from the equator and look northward. Green, then yellow, then green again. Start from the equator and look southward. Green, then yellow, then green again. Why so organized? I'll tell you, homes, it's all about atmospheric circulation!

We live on a spherical planet and as such the most bulgy part of the world gets the most heat. Air at the equator is warmed up by solar energy and starts to rise. Convection takes over at this point and that warm air travels poleward while cooler air at the poles descends towards the equator. Simple enough, but not only is our planet spherical it rotates as well. The rotation of our planet sets in motion a very sneaky character that we now have to consider – the Coriolis effect.
New Australian track forecast is south of the JTWC and much closer to my idea. They now analyze Ului's intensity as a minimal hurricane, barely, at 65 knots, which I agree with. They forecast strengthening up to 80 knots before landfall. They are apparently now seeing the potential here. The JTWC still hasn't, and continues to call for weakening up until landfall. I still think Ului will be a 90-knot Cat 2 at landfall (these are all Saffir-Simpson categories, btw, but the map below shows Australian categories).

145. RM706
Patrap, you left and missed the cargo shorts ...
Had to re-boot..Shaun and Tim doing a fine Job with the show though.



Quoting Patrap:


Purdy, ain’t she? So blue. And green. And yellow. And green and yellow in such organized bands across the globe.

Start from the equator and look northward. Green, then yellow, then green again. Start from the equator and look southward. Green, then yellow, then green again. Why so organized? I'll tell you, homes, it's all about atmospheric circulation!

We live on a spherical planet and as such the most bulgy part of the world gets the most heat. Air at the equator is warmed up by solar energy and starts to rise. Convection takes over at this point and that warm air travels poleward while cooler air at the poles descends towards the equator. Simple enough, but not only is our planet spherical it rotates as well. The rotation of our planet sets in motion a very sneaky character that we now have to consider – the Coriolis effect.


Hey,Patrap, nice summation, but I detected a note of sarcasm run through your explanation. That doesn't sound like you. LOL
I just post um Grothar ,,dat one I didnt write

Sarcasm..?

Me?

Do tell...LOL
okay, it can start to warm up and stay warm in florida now.
yo Groth!
Still trying to crack 80 down here in so. Fla.:

Local Text Forecast for
West Palm Beach, FL (33409)

Mar 18 Tonight
Scattered showers early...becoming clear after midnight. Low around 50F. Winds W at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Mar 19 Tomorrow
Mainly sunny. High 71F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph.
Mar 19 Tomorrow night
Clear skies. Low 56F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph.
Mar 20 Saturday
Mainly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Mar 21 Sunday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Mar 22 Monday
Thundershowers. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the mid 50s.
Mar 23 Tuesday
Mainly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Mar 24 Wednesday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Mar 25 Thursday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Mar 26 Friday
A few thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Mar 27 Saturday
Scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Ok, so NOW Ului is being affected by wind shear. The beef I have with the JTWC is that there was no wind shear before now. A few days ago back when Ului had just fallen off its Cat 5 peak, I explained why the storm looked sheared even though it clearly wasn't being affected by vertical wind shear. Now real shear actually exists, and I'll explain why:

For most of Ului's mature life, she has had a nice upper anticyclone (high) over the top of her, remember how perfect her outflow was as a Cat 5? Well that was due to the upper high, and Ului has had it over her this whole time, until now. When Ului upwelled cold water and weakened herself all the way down to a Cat 1, she lost most of her deep convection. When this happened, she stopped warming the environment above her, and eventually was unable to produce enough heat to sustain high pressure in the upper levels. Because of this, the upper anticyclone has de-coupled with Ului, and now exists to her northwest, labeled in the image below.

This image also shows the large-scale sub-equatorial ridge to Ului's northeast, which has been responsible for cutting off her outflow in that direction and was also part of what punched a bunch of dry air into her circulation a couple days ago. Now that the upper anticyclone over Ului has moved away, a northwesterly flow aloft has developed over her on the southwest side of this ridge, resulting in moderate northwesterly wind shear. If Ului is successful in restrengthening over warmer waters, deep thunderstorms activity will resume (it has already begun to), thereby re-heating the atmosphere above her, and enabling her to attract the upper anticyclone back over herself, or she may just develop a new one, like most strengthening hurricanes do.

So NOW there is shear, before there wasn't, and this shear will lessen as time goes on. The problem before was dry air entrainment and upwelling of cold water. The Australians picked up on this long before the JTWC.

And the sun rises....

Does anyone knows the latest forecast from ECMWF of the MSLP in the Atlantic?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Does anyone knows the latest forecast from ECMWF of the MSLP in the Atlantic?


June-July-August MSLP forecast:

Why We Should Keep Flying the Space Shuttle

By Buzz Aldrin

Instead of planning the retirement of the Space Shuttle program, America should be preparing the shuttles for their next step in space: evolving, not shutting them down and laying off thousands of people. You know the very people whose experience we will need in the years ahead. Except if you lay them off now, they won't be around in the next decade. Today's Shuttle operation is made up of five elements. Here's how we can put them all to use in a whole new space program. America, extend and transform the Shuttle, don't end 'em.

Those five elements of a Shuttle extension - the four segment solid booster motors, the big orange External Fuel tank, the trio of liquid Shuttle main engines, the vast existing Shuttle facilities like hangars and launching pads, and above all the skilled and experienced work force that has been operating the Shuttle fleet for nearly 30 years, can be the foundation of a whole new space goal.

We need to start thinking like our friends in the Russian space program. The first launch of the Soyuz rocket that is used today for taxi flights to the International Space Station had its first flight in November 1963 -- the same month President Kennedy was assassinated! But while the rocket and capsule look the same as the one that flew first in 1963, there have been many changes, some subtle and some more obvious. Newer and more powerful engines, a new upper stage, and advanced spaceship controls and systems mark today's Soyuz. In fact, the Soyuz itself is a more advanced version of the R-7 ICBM that Russia developed in the late 1950s and which first lofted spaceman Yuri Gagarin in 1961. Instead of abandoning the system for something entirely new -- which is what the U.S. intends to do after the Shuttle -- Russia has made incremental improvements to Soyuz, basically building an entire space program around that space-going workhorse.

See any lessons here?

America has invested 30 years in the Shuttle system. Instead of retiring it and beginning with a new "clean sheet of paper" approach that will take extra time and money, I propose we follow the Russian example and make the basic Shuttle the foundation of a space program that can take us literally to Mars. Use the boosters, engines and big tank as the backbone of a new heavy lift rocket. Fly that rocket from the same facilities as the current Shuttles use. Keep much of the existing workforce working, because the only thing you will change is older designs and engines, making way for a heavy lift launcher derived from the Shuttle basics and capable of carrying large new spacecraft to the station or destinations beyond.

You may ask -- how do we get from here to there?

By continuing to fly the existing Shuttles until a commercial crew-carrying cousin comes available after testing, or until the all-cargo ships start flying. On my evolution chart, I see these cargo Shuttles evolving, too, until they become a truly huge heavy lift rocket that can fly elements of an interplanetary spaceship aloft and link them together, using the space station as the testing ground.

But I also have a place for a space capsule in this plan. An Orion-like capsule can be docked to the interplanetary ship and provide aero braking tests as we advance further and further into the solar system, headed in the direction of Mars.

What's aero braking? That's a way to use the gravity and upper atmosphere of Earth to sling shot a ship out either deeper into space, or slow it down to be "captured" by Earth's gravity. It flies in a series of ever-widening spirals. What's the big deal? Because aero braking doesn't need a heavy and expensive rocket stage to muscle our ships around in space. It's a technique we have used successfully in robotic missions to Mars. If we truly want to make humans on Mars a national objective without sending the money -- printing presses into overtime, that's one way to get us there.

But none of this is possible if we abandon the Space Shuttle, and the many decades of experience in flying a winged craft into space and safely back to a runway. They call 'em a runway lander.

And the story of why we need that instead of a spaceship-turned-boat space capsule as our space taxis is the subject of my next blog. Along with ideas on using that big orange fuel tank so familiar to those who have watched Shuttle launchings in a new role: a spaceship itself. More on those ideas soon.
Levi,that looks more troublesom than the previous update.
Quoting NRAamy:
yo Groth!


Yo Amy. Looks like an active season ahead. Don't you wish you lived near the tropics instead of C?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi,that looks more troublesom than the previous update.


Yes, the Euro's March forecasts are scarier than February's.



Be Prepared
"Preventing the loss of life and minimizing the damage to property from hurricanes are responsibilities that are shared by all."




Hurricane Season: Are You Prepared?Throughout this Web site, information has been provided regarding actions that you can take based on specific hurricane hazards. The most important thing that you can do is to be informed and prepared. Disaster prevention includes both being prepared as well as reducing damages (mitigation).

Disaster Prevention should include:

* Developing a Family Plan
* Creating a Disaster Supply Kit
* Having a Place to Go
* Securing your Home
* Having a Pet Plan

One of the most important decisions you will have to make is "Should I Evacuate?"

If you are asked to evacuate, you should do so without delay. But unless you live in a coastal or low-lying area, an area that floods frequently, or in manufactured housing, it is unlikely that emergency managers will ask you to evacuate. That means that it is important for you and your family to HAVE A PLAN that makes you as safe as possible in your home.

Disaster prevention includes modifying your home to strengthen it against storms so that you can be as safe as possible. It also includes having the supplies on hand to weather the storm. The suggestions provided here are only guides. You should use common sense in your disaster prevention.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Still trying to crack 80 down here in so. Fla.:

Local Text Forecast for
West Palm Beach, FL (33409)

Mar 18 Tonight
Scattered showers early...becoming clear after midnight. Low around 50F. Winds W at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Mar 19 Tomorrow
Mainly sunny. High 71F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph.
Mar 19 Tomorrow night
Clear skies. Low 56F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph.
Mar 20 Saturday
Mainly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Mar 21 Sunday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Mar 22 Monday
Thundershowers. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the mid 50s.
Mar 23 Tuesday
Mainly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Mar 24 Wednesday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Mar 25 Thursday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Mar 26 Friday
A few thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Mar 27 Saturday
Scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.


Got to admit though, the evenings have been nice. No mosquitos even! Let us enjoy it before the hot, muggy days return.
Very cold cloud tops continuing to explode upward over Ului's center. The storm is now becoming much smaller than it was before her weakening. The northwesterly shear is evident as all the upper clouds are streaming off to Ului's southeast, with clear skies in the NW quad. Ului is still in a fragile state, but conditions will gradually improve as she makes her turn westward. That turn looks to be a little delayed though, as Ului is currently tracking south of the JTWC forecast points. SSD AVN IR Floater Loop

TO PATRAP AND OTHERS:

There is one item that many people do not include in their kits which I have found come in very handy. I always keep roof tarps and rope in my garage. In the event of roof damage, they come in handy. I had some minor roof damage with Wilma and it prevented a lot of leaks in further damage in the house. I had enough to give to a few neighbors, who had a lot of damage. They are very hard to get AFTER a storm. I just keep them in the plastic bags they came in and they stay fine.
Tarps and Blue roof materials are a excellent addition to ones Home supplies.





Most definitely Grothar,..I have 12 or so from Aviation Grade to FEMA Supplied from 05 here.


2010 Atlantic Hurricane Names


Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter
167. Oskee
Evening all. I read that there may be rain in the forecast for Haiti. Is there any hope of rain for Jamaica? There are terrible drought conditions here.
What I think may be a good idea, is some night when the blog is a little slow, some of you who have been through severe storms should put in some tips of what people need. Things that might be overlooked, like some plywood for inside the house in case a window breaks or moving glass objects in the house that might fly around. Things like that. It could be very helpful to us all if we could get advice from the experienceoe of others.
Tomas in the South Pacific and Tomas in the Atlantic would be very ironic.
After all the Wind dies down and the Storm exits,..the real work begins in earnest for Thousands





Dealing With the Aftermath of a Hurricane
by Rebecca Caito
Rhode Island Sea Grant


P1270

Safety After a Hurricane

Major health and safety hazards remain even after a hurricane's wind and rain have passed. Injuries can happen to anyone dealing with the aftermath of a major storm, so it is wise to be overly cautious.

Debris-filled streets are dangerous; therefore, walk or drive with caution. Prior to entering a building, check for structural damage. Make sure it is not in danger of collapse. Turn off any outside gas lines and let house air for several minutes to remove escaping gas. Upon entering a building, do not use open flame as a light source: Use a battery-operated flashlight.

Never leave young children alone or allow them to play in damaged buildings or in areas that might be unsafe. Wear protective clothing on legs, arms, feet, and hands while cleaning up debris. Wear rubber gloves while scrubbing flood damaged interiors and furniture.
Perfect example of what I am talking about Pat. The picture you showed of the blue tarp held down by what I assume are 2X2's. Good idea. I also use 2X2's to secure my wood fence doors. A little extra strength on them.

My mother's family,(old time Floridians, always had bamboo or Arica palms or Johnson palms in front of all their windows. They said it was a good wind break and prevented flying debris. (This of course was before impact glass) Hey, they had to do something.
Quoting Oskee:
Evening all. I read that there may be rain in the forecast for Haiti. Is there any hope of rain for Jamaica? There are terrible drought conditions here.


You may get a scattered shower or two develop over the mountains there, but I'm afraid Hispaniola and PR are getting the most of this. Another chance may come in 4-5 days as a nor'easter drops the tail of a front down into the NW Caribbean.

Your drought conditions will start to improve and reverse as the El Nino dies this spring. Most of the models have you going into highly above-normal precipitation as early as April, and certainly by May.

174. Oskee
Another good tip for homes with louvre windows. thread garbage bags (in and out) and close the window. It prevent leaks.
Quoting Oskee:
Another good tip for homes with louvre windows. thread garbage bags (in and out) and close the window. It prevent leaks.


Good one!
Now is the time to check your insurance policies. Make the changes you need. And make sure you have "Loss Of Use" insurance included!
Quoting Patrap:
After all the Wind dies down and the Storm exits,..the real work begins in earnest for Thousands





Dealing With the Aftermath of a Hurricane
by Rebecca Caito
Rhode Island Sea Grant

P1270

Safety After a Hurricane

Major health and safety hazards remain even after a hurricane's wind and rain have passed. Injuries can happen to anyone dealing with the aftermath of a major storm, so it is wise to be overly cautious.

Debris-filled streets are dangerous; therefore, walk or drive with caution. Prior to entering a building, check for structural damage. Make sure it is not in danger of collapse. Turn off any outside gas lines and let house air for several minutes to remove escaping gas. Upon entering a building, do not use open flame as a light source: Use a battery-operated flashlight.

Never leave young children alone or allow them to play in damaged buildings or in areas that might be unsafe. Wear protective clothing on legs, arms, feet, and hands while cleaning up debris. Wear rubber gloves while scrubbing flood damaged interiors and furniture.


You seem to be on a roll,Pat. I'll leave it to you. You seem more adept at this than I. This is really important. It was amazing how many injuries occurred after Wilma. More than the actual storm itself. Go with it!
And if upgrading to FLOOD INSURANCE,REMEMBER THERE IS A 30 DAY WAITING PERIOD AFTER SIGNING.

So act now if your going that route this season
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Now is the time to check your insurance policies. Make the changes you need. And make sure you have "Loss Of Use" insurance included!


Good point, Geoff. I've heard of people who lost thousands when they had to stay somewhere after the storm.
Quoting Grothar:


You seem to be on a roll,Pat. I'll leave it to you. You seem more adept at this than I. This is really important. It was amazing how many injuries occurred after Wilma. More than the actual storm itself. Go with it!


We all can offer info in this respect Grothar,..so any info from any credible source is ALWAYS welcomed
181. Oskee
Thank you. I've added the bookmark.

It's always the case, the people who don't need it get it and vice versa. I'm lucky, we have a tank. Depending on the area you're in, you may only get water 2-3 times for the week. The problem I have is, rationing the water to last until we have water to fill back up the tank.
Probably one of the most important advice on obtaining water in emergencies. Too large to paste, but worth looking at the link.




Link
It is quite interesting how high the global temperature averages are considering that we are at the deepest solar minimum in several decades. Record high global temperatures by 2012/2013 look very likely, especially if augmented by an El Nino. It will be very interesting to see what temps are like in 2015-2016 at the peak!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
It is quite interesting how high the global temperature averages are considering that we are at the deepest solar minimum in several decades. Record high global temperatures by 2012/2013 look very likely, especially if augmented by an El Nino. It will be very interesting to see what temps are like in 2015-2016 at the peak!


Not really that surprising....the correlation of the sun to warming is less than the correlation of the oceans to warming, meaning the oceans have far more effect, and they have been going up since 1979 when the warm PDO began. They have now leveled off and this El Nino is putting a neat spike on top. Atmospheric temperatures have also spiked accordingly. But remember the northern hemisphere February was only 26th warmest as Dr. Masters said, and the solar minimum did probably have a hand in that. There were many things going into this winter that made it cold.
I no its only Pre-Season Baseball but, the Rays and Yanks are on the MLB network now!
Powerful thunderstorms firing for the first time in days over Ului...but northwesterly shear and cold water in the wake of her path is resulting in the center being located under the NW side of the convection.

Ului
2010-03-18 00:00 -- 2010-03-18 22:45


Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Version 1





SEVERE THREAT INCREASES DAY 3 SAT

I bet in the next 5 years we will set a new minimum for summer arctic ice coverage.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I bet in the next 5 years we will set a new minimum for summer arctic ice coverage.
in 5 years arctic may very well be near total ice free conditions by mid summer period our local head forecaster for all of canada is claiming most of canada if not all will have prolonged heat for the summer with a very dry pattern which may infact become a full blown drought by the start of august but like everything else we wait to see how the spring and early summer plays out but i got a feelin we are in store for one long hot dry summer


AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Issued at 5:01 am EST Friday 19 March 2010. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 4.


IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1845 UTC 18/03/2010
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.7S
Longitude: 157.6E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [200 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 972 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [50 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/0600: 18.1S 156.4E: 040 [075]: 065 [120]: 969
+24: 19/1800: 19.1S 154.4E: 070 [130]: 075 [140]: 961
+36: 20/0600: 19.7S 151.7E: 100 [190]: 075 [140]: 960
+48: 20/1800: 20.1S 148.9E: 135 [250]: 080 [150]: 956
+60: 21/0600: 20.3S 146.2E: 180 [340]: 030 [055]: 996
+72: 21/1800: 20.4S 143.7E: 230 [425]: 025 [045]: 999
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului has weakened in the last 24 hours. Dvorak analysis
based on curved band with 0.9 wrap for DT 3.5. MET is 3.5, PAT is 4.0. CI held
at 4.5. The recent weakening trend is most likely due to cooler sea surface
temperatures less than 26C caused by ocean upwelling resulting from the slow
movement in the past 48 hours. Models indicate upper conditions will become more
favourable by Saturday for increased venting and deepening.

Following a prolonged period of light steering, a mid-level ridge is beginning
to develop south of the system and Ului should begin to accelerate and track to
the west southwest towards the Queensland coast later today.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
in 5 years arctic may very well be near total ice free conditions by mid summer period our local head forecaster for all of canada is claiming most of canada if not all will have prolonged heat for the summer with a very dry pattern which may infact become a full blown drought by the start of august but like everything else we wait to see how the spring and early summer plays out but i got a feelin we are in store for one long hot dry summer


I bet Hugh from "Ice Road Truckers" is gonna be pee-oe'd

Specail comment on health care tonight for the full hour by Olbermann on Countdown.
I bet Hugh doesn't buy that global warming stuff.
Olbermann's my hero :)
Stuff,..yup dats what a Trucker in The Artic most Likely would say,.."Stuff".

But he definitely has the Driving thing down.

He's a Bear ya know,eh?





Just a GREAT WAY to start SPRING?????
Portion of the DFW, TX Area Forecast Discussion from 4:02PM TD:

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. WHETHER IT
ACTUALLY DOES SNOW WILL DEPEND ON THE WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND THUS ESSENTIALLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TRACKS. AS MENTIONED...THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
THE TRACK FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SOLUTION
THAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING FOR A COUPLE RUNS NOW. SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...BUT FOR NOW THIS FORECAST WILL
STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS TRACK. HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF SNOW
OVER OVER THE NORTHERN 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES. GIVEN THE MODELS REALLY
HAVE NOT SETTLED ON A TRACK LATITUDE YET...CONFIDENCE IN SNOW IS
LOW AND THUS TOO EARLY TO ENTERTAIN IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS.
REGARDLESS OF SNOW POTENTIAL...MOST OF THE REGION WILL CONTEND
WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS SUN MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.


Snow for D? Get out!
Quoting bappit:
Snow for D? Get out!

yeah, when's the nice warm air gonna arrive for good. when you have arthritis and it's cold you are not a happy camper. lots of hot baths. have a nice evening everyone and thanks for all the great information!
Quoting bappit:
Snow for D? Get out!


Tell me about it!! We finally have had a few days where temps actually were a few degrees above normal, we actually have been in the 65-75F range here in Arlington, TX for the last 2 weeks, THEN THIS??? SNOW???
Quoting Bordonaro:
Just a GREAT WAY to start SPRING?????

how do ya think i feel we are going from near 70 degrees for like a week now to near 30 degrees on sunday evening for highs with lows on mon and tus in the mid 20's all the trees are budding here with spring flowers popin up even the chinese apple tree is starting to bloom you could see the blooms even though they are small in the highlight of the setting sun today shame the cold is gonna kill off that early growth but nature can be cruel sometimes and we have nothing to say about it just deal with it
Quoting Chicklit:

yeah, when's the nice warm air gonna arrive for good. when you have arthritis and it's cold you are not a happy camper. lots of hot baths. have a nice evening everyone and thanks for all the great information!


Thankfully, I am 48 and I do not have arthritis, yet! In winters like this, we will have weird temperature swings until mid to late April. We may actually freeze AGAIN this Sun/Mon morning and it would not surprise me to see a freeze again in early April!!

Then, when summer finally gets here, it will be a "blast furnace"!!
211. flsky
Quoting Grothar:
What I think may be a good idea, is some night when the blog is a little slow, some of you who have been through severe storms should put in some tips of what people need. Things that might be overlooked, like some plywood for inside the house in case a window breaks or moving glass objects in the house that might fly around. Things like that. It could be very helpful to us all if we could get advice from the experienceoe of others.

My former neighbor, who lived in my building before I did in 2004, had her "green house" window blow off. This is the type of window that reaches beyond the outside wall so as to get more sunlight. Luckily, she had sheet plastic and duct tape to seal it off. Unfortunately, however, her stove was destroyed before she could get it secured.
Quoting Patrap:


I bet Hugh from "Ice Road Truckers" is gonna be pee-oe'd



Ice road trucking ended early this year. Saw in the news last week they plucked a driver out with a helicopter.

I think we are in for a record breaking melt year.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
how do ya think i feel we are going from near 70 degrees for like a week now to near 30 degrees on sunday evening for highs with lows on mon and tus in the mid 20's all the trees are budding here with spring flowers popin up even the chinese apple tree is starting to bloom you could see the blooms even though they are small in the highlight of the setting sun today shame the cold is gonna kill off that early growth but nature can be cruel sometimes and we have nothing to say about it just deal with it


Dallas-Ft Worth, TX is at 32.5N latitude.

Toronto, ON is at 42N latitude.

Cold air incursions, with temps below 0C/32F happen in S Canada until late Apr/early May.

Cold air incursions, with temps below 0C/32F happen in N Central TX until mid Mar. Our last freeze was on 2-26-10. Our normal temps are 69F/48F or 21C/9C for today! We also have all our trees blooming, albeit, they're 3 weeks late. Normally, by mid/late Mar all the leaves are out on the trees! Gotta love this "Modiki El Nino"!!!
214. flsky
Quoting Chicklit:

yeah, when's the nice warm air gonna arrive for good. when you have arthritis and it's cold you are not a happy camper. lots of hot baths. have a nice evening everyone and thanks for all the great information!

I know what you mean! We are usually in the high 70s, low 80s at this time of year (our best time of year, in my opinion) and we are being cheated out of it! I think we'll probably be sliding right into heat and humidity next - meaning no spring weather for us.
personally, i think nature is messed up right now...just like everything else. and if we don't clean up our individual acts, it's going to get worse. i have always been a 'record freak.' had to have hard copies of everything. well guess, what, just went to on-line billing for everything. i pay for everything on-line anyway, and print the receipt. we need to make individual, independent choices. that's how we'll change the world.
Quoting Chicklit:
personally, i think nature is messed up right now...just like everything else. and if we don't clean up our individual acts, it's going to get worse. i have always been a 'record freak.' had to have hard copies of everything. well guess, what, just went to on-line billing for everything. i pay for everything on-line anyway, and print the receipt. we need to make individual, independent choices. that's how we'll change the world.


As the Earth slowly warms, crazier and crazier weather patterns will emerge, and possibly become our "new normal"!!
Hi Flsky! Looking forward to our 'summit meeting' at Aunt Catfish's.
Quoting bappit:
I bet Hugh doesn't buy that global warming stuff.
Are you implying that Hugh is illiterate and doesn't read? Even if he doesn't, Hugh must think somepun's up because his road's got melted away. Go on. Get me started. It's thursday and I'm irish. Oh sorry, it's cold. Got to take a hot bath break. Will take a rain check on that. Really, bye now, wunderblogfolk.
Well, it will be 73F tomorrow here in Arlington, TX. And Saturday night, just in time for the first full day of Spring 2010, it might snow.

I am ready for about a week of 90F weather, can someone please lend us a few hot days??
Quoting Chicklit:
Are you implying that Hugh is illiterate and doesn't read? Even if he doesn't, Hugh must think somepun's up because his road's got melted away. Go on. Get me started. It's thursday and I'm irish. Oh sorry, it's cold. Got to take a hot bath break. Will take a rain check on that. Really, bye now, wunderblogfolk.


I am sure Hugh is pretty smart! I feel bad that the changing weather is going to cut into how he earns his livelihood!

Hopefully, he will be able to get himself a regular long-haul trucking job!


PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:52am EST on Friday the 19th of March 2010

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Cardwell to Yeppoon.

At 10:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 2 was estimated to be
950 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and
1100 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and
moving southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Ului has weakened to category two intensity this morning and is
now moving to the southwest towards the Queensland coast.

It now appears unlikely that the cyclone will reintensify. The most likely
scenario is for the cyclone to cross the coast Sunday morning between Cardwell
and Mackay and it may remain at category 2 intensity by landfall.

Damaging winds should develop between Cardwell and Yeppoon later on Saturday,
then increase further Sunday morning as the cyclone nears the coast.

Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast.
Dangerous surf conditions are expected to develop about exposed beaches south of
the cyclone later today. A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for these
conditions.

People between Cardwell and Yeppoon should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Tropical Cyclone Ului at 10:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.7 degrees South 156.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Friday 19 March.

Quoting Bordonaro:


I am sure Hugh is pretty smart! I feel bad that the changing weather is going to cut into how he earns his livelihood!

Hopefully, he will be able to get himself a regular long-haul trucking job!
naw they will put mudders on'em and call it mud truckin on melted perma frost tonight at nine


March 17, 2010 (Record Atlantic SSTs, breaking 2005)


March 17, 2005 (Ex-Record Atlantic SSTs, broken by 2010)


Except for a rather small disparity in the Gulf and Bahamas and that small cool pool in the Caribbean, 2010 > 2005 by a long shot.
Mid to upper 80's in C and S FL late next week and we may even near 90 in a few locations in West C FL. THe Gulf and the Atlantic coastal waters will warm quickly now. Also, 78 to 82 both Saturday and Sunday in Orlando. I expect a chance for severe wx Sunday evening as this strong upper low moves in late in the day with 1 to 2" of rain in a short time.
Quoting Bordonaro:


As the Earth slowly warms, crazier and crazier weather patterns will emerge, and possibly become our "new normal"!!
or "new abnormal"
Ran across this Darwin Award Winner and thought I'd share.
Quoting Bordonaro:


As the Earth slowly warms, crazier and crazier weather patterns will emerge, and possibly become our "new normal"!!

Or maybe, even, back to "normal"...
I'd maybe check the Long,Long Range Climate modeling scenario's and see what they say.


The Global wide Science Experiment is way under way now,a Century and a fourscore at least.


But most wont like the modeling result's..No Sir.

AMEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!APOCALYPSE-INDUCED MISANTHROPIC ENVIRONMENTAL NERVOUSNESS!!!
Quoting altesticstorm10:

March 17, 2010 (Record Atlantic SSTs, breaking 2005)


March 17, 2005 (Ex-Record Atlantic SSTs, broken by 2010)


Except for a rather small disparity in the Gulf and Bahamas and that small cool pool in the Caribbean, 2010 > 2005 by a long shot.
it will be what it will be best be ready to deal with what ever nature is preping up to be
Quoting help4u:
AMEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!APOCALYPSE-INDUCED MISANTHROPIC ENVIRONMENTAL NERVOUSNESS!!!
sorry no help4u
Quoting Levi32:


You may get a scattered shower or two develop over the mountains there, but I'm afraid Hispaniola and PR are getting the most of this. Another chance may come in 4-5 days as a nor'easter drops the tail of a front down into the NW Caribbean.

Your drought conditions will start to improve and reverse as the El Nino dies this spring. Most of the models have you going into highly above-normal precipitation as early as April, and certainly by May.


That fits with the teleconnections in the studies that say the Caribbean gets an anomalously wet May/June rainy season during a strong El Nino's decline.

Wonder what, if any, effect it will have on the normal progression of SST there...assuming that extra wet rainy season comes with extra clouds and/or wind.
Quoting Patrap:
I'd maybe check the Long,Long Range Climate modeling scenario's and see what they say.


The Global wide Science Experiment is way under way now,a Century and a fourscore at least.


But most wont like the modeling result's..No Sir.


Problem is, we have no confidence in the climate models. Sure, they have been tuned to try to simulate the observed, past, conditions, but the physics of the feedbacks and natural cycle teleconnections are full of assumptions at this point.

A similarity to what I do. I can tune a storm surge model to give a result matching observations during Ike by turning up or down wind speed in select locations and ignoring that the assumptions about sea bottom friction could be wrong. I'll have a perfect hindcast result. And the sea bottom friction (just to name one parameter) would be very similar to the forcings of the teleconnections and feedbacks in the climate models.

BUT, would you use that model with that tuned setup to stay home or evacuate for a new storm with that model running in forecast mode? Or decide where to position an emergency operations center? Or base flood map zones off of that model setup? Of course not.

(aside from evacuating low lying areas for the sake of caution)
I'm going on a limb and saying we will have our first system affect the west coast of FL in May. A couple weeks of 90 degree days will send the gulf waters quickly toward 80. Those 90 degree days will starting coming frequently in April for FL.
It appears that snow will be on tap for Northern Texas on Saturday. An upper level low will track eastward behind the cyclogenesis of a low pressure system tracking over northern Texas. This upper low with act to decrease heights lower thickness values enough to support snow. The GFS shows 1000mb-7000mb thickness values around 281dm. Surface temperatures during the event appear to be around the mid 30s so expecting a wet snow which will have difficulty accumulating, especially considering the rainfall amounts before the arrival of the snow.
The GFS 12z Bufkit shows the dendritic growth zone around 11000-12000ft with no mid omega forcing. Given the lack of dynamics in the mid and upper levels and above freezing surface temps, I see snow to liquid ratios around 8:1. I am forecasting for around 1 inch of snow in the Dallas and Fort Worth area and 1-3 inches possible closer to the Texas/Oklahoma Border.
Quoting Drakoen:
It appears that snow will be on tap for Northern Texas on Saturday. An upper level low will track eastward behind the cyclogenesis of a low pressure system tracking over northern Texas. This upper low with act to decrease heights lower thickness values enough to support snow. The GFS shows 1000mb-7000mb thickness values around 281dm. Surface temperatures during the event appear to be around the mid 30s so expecting a wet snow which will have difficulty accumulating, especially considering the rainfall amounts before the arrival of the snow.
The GFS 12z Bufkit shows the dendritic growth zone around 11000-12000ft with no mid omega forcing. Given the lack of dynamics in the mid and upper levels and above freezing surface temps, I see snow to liquid ratios around 8:1. I am forecasting for around 1 inch of snow in the Dallas and Fort Worth area and 1-3 inches possible closer to the Texas/Oklahoma Border.

That won't cool down the Gulf again?
Quoting altesticstorm10:

That won't cool down the Gulf again?
i don't think he said it will cool down the gulf
Quoting Jeff9641:
I'm going on a limb and saying we will have our first system affect the west coast of FL in May. A couple weeks of 90 degree days will send the gulf waters quickly toward 80. Those 90 degree days will starting coming frequently in April for FL.


May. We still get nights in 50s sometimes in May in SE LA. Hard to warm a Gulf of Mexico beyond the mean daily temperature that quick when it is starting out so cold.

Mean temperature for NOLA for May 2009: 76 F
Same for Tampa: 81 F. And Tampa didn't see 90 F for a solid 2 weeks in May, 2009...in the second half of the month. (IIRC, I don't think last Spring was anomalously cool.)

In addition, you can expect the gulf to lag behind the mean surface temps a little.
Might want to change the altar you worship at.
Quoting atmoaggie:


May. We still get nights in 50s sometimes in May in SE LA. Hard to warm a Gulf of Mexico beyond the mean daily temperature.

Mean temperature for NOLA for May 2009: 76 F
Same for Tampa: 81 F. And Tampa didn't see 90 F for a solid 2 weeks in May, 2009...in the second half of the month. (IIRC, I don't think last Spring was anomalously cool.)

In addition, you can expect the gulf to lag behind the mean surface temps a little.

That's speaking contrarily to most people (including hurricane23) who believe the gulf will soon begin rapidly approaching the normal SST level and become above average by June.
Approaching near normal values is actually quite inline with what Atmo said ... He was refuting the likelihood of a may gulf storm, never did he say temps would be very different from normal.
While a May tropical storm forming in the Gulf is unlikely...one coming up from the Caribbean is not and will need the water to be at least marginally warm by that time (which it will, in all likelyhood).

As El Nino dies...Near normal to normal by May and normal to slightly above normal SSTs in the GOM in June seems like a good bet.
Quoting atmoaggie:


May. We still get nights in 50s sometimes in May in SE LA. Hard to warm a Gulf of Mexico beyond the mean daily temperature that quick when it is starting out so cold.

Mean temperature for NOLA for May 2009: 76 F
Same for Tampa: 81 F. And Tampa didn't see 90 F for a solid 2 weeks in May, 2009...in the second half of the month. (IIRC, I don't think last Spring was anomalously cool.)

In addition, you can expect the gulf to lag behind the mean surface temps a little.


The second half of May in 2009 was one of the wettest on record in C FL as some cities like Daytona Beach had 22" and there were even some places west of there that had 30 to 39" in 2 weeks. The first half was extremely hot with highs in the mid to upper 90's in early May of 2009 in Orlando. If you don't believe me then just look at all the monthly rainfall totals for May in C FL. We had the worst flooding in recent memory in Volusia and Flagler county that month.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Problem is, we have no confidence in the climate models. Sure, they have been tuned to try to simulate the observed, past, conditions, but the physics of the feedbacks and natural cycle teleconnections are full of assumptions at this point.

A similarity to what I do. I can tune a storm surge model to give a result matching observations during Ike by turning up or down wind speed in select locations and ignoring that the assumptions about sea bottom friction could be wrong. I'll have a perfect hindcast result. And the sea bottom friction (just to name one parameter) would be very similar to the forcings of the teleconnections and feedbacks in the climate models.

BUT, would you use that model with that tuned setup to stay home or evacuate for a new storm with that model running in forecast mode? Or decide where to position an emergency operations center? Or base flood map zones off of that model setup? Of course not.

(aside from evacuating low lying areas for the sake of caution)


I always refer to my best judgement and Local Emg Mgt folks.

Always.

That was the reason for cooler weather in late May but normally May is one of our hottest months in C FL. I've many May's where we've stayed in the upper 90's for weeks until the rainy season kicked in. Example 2001, 2002, 2004, 2007, 2008, and 2009.
I'll have a new post on Friday, when I plan to discuss why the Red River at Fargo, ND is now experiencing a "10-year flood" once every 2.5 years, on average.

Jeff Masters



Should be a interesting read as per usual,and Im sure some folks will be banging their heads on some Keyboards over the data.

"Snicker,ack,coff"..

LOL
2010 Atlantic Hurricane Names

Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter

Colin,Fiona,Julia,Igor..replaces Charley,Frances,Jeanne,and Ivan the Terrible from the 2004 Season
Quoting Patrap:
2010 Atlantic Hurricane Names

Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Delta
Epsilon
Zeta
Eta
Theta

The next one, would, be, Kamba...
Quoting Patrap:
2010 Atlantic Hurricane Names

Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter

Colin,Fiona,Julia,Igor..replaces Charley,Frances,Jeanne,and Ivan the Terrible from the 2004 Season


It is looking like a bad hurricane season maybe on the way.
Let's see how far we get this year, in Helenic terms.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
how do ya think i feel we are going from near 70 degrees for like a week now to near 30 degrees on sunday evening for highs with lows on mon and tus in the mid 20's all the trees are budding here with spring flowers popin up even the chinese apple tree is starting to bloom you could see the blooms even though they are small in the highlight of the setting sun today shame the cold is gonna kill off that early growth but nature can be cruel sometimes and we have nothing to say about it just deal with it


The upside-down winter goes on...winter arrives just as spring does.
Our favorite west FL/Gulf buoy way out in the gulf stream did reach 27 C (~ 81 F) by May 15 last year. So, yeah, 80 degree water temps...I'll buy that. A May storm? Ehh, that would be quite an anomaly.

Buoy 42003: (this one) http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

2009 archive at: (scroll, scroll, scroll) http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/view_text_file.php?filename=42003h2009.txt.gz&dir=data/historical/stdmet/

Though, all of this makes me wonder about Audrey. The Gulf must have been good and warm in 1957 when a cat 4 spun up and hit SW LA on June 27.
Quoting Patrap:
I'll have a new post on Friday, when I plan to discuss why the Red River at Fargo, ND is now experiencing a "10-year flood" once every 2.5 years, on average.

Jeff Masters



Should be a interesting read as per usual,and Im sure some folks will be banging their heads on some Keyboards over the data.

"Snicker,ack,coff"..

LOL

Yep. Droughts are more frequent.
Snicker,
Ack,
Cough.
Hi guys
check it out



Quoting Minnemike:

I am thankful we're worried about a gas with such low atmospheric concentration and greenhouse impact. We would be talking about cataclysmic warming otherwise. Instead, we are talking about the kind of warming that won't destroy our species, but will certainly impact our way of life, and the lives of countless species worldwide, many of which we depend on. I just think it's a fallacy being communicated to down play CO2 using atmospheric concentration and greenhouse impact figures. Just because a number is small, it doesn't amount to even a hill of beans if it's out of context.


I am glad that we are studying it, too.

I don't agree with the impacts, though. Species adapt. Not just ours. If you have a steep change over a sustained period of time, I'd agree, but the Earth has never seen that kind of change, other than going into or out of an ice age.

Slow increases in temp over time won't affect anyone's way of life.

Theory and predictions have been put out there. So far, the observations do not support it.

btw, can anyone get me the IPCC model run data results? All of them. Have one, but would like to validate them all.

Have until January to get it done. Monthly data doesn't help in the overall picture for validation.

Below is 2000-2009 IPCC vs. actual validation (cold in the 80's). And, the more data we get, the less that green line will move. Will be very hard to validate after 10 or so more years. I am watching and waiting to see how observations match with predictions. So far, not so good. And that's the long term trend-line, from 1979 (sat era).




Below is just from 2000 (prediction point) forward.



Again, would love all of the actual IPCC model results if anyone can provide or show me where. I've looked and found only one.
Quoting atmoaggie:

That fits with the teleconnections in the studies that say the Caribbean gets an anomalously wet May/June rainy season during a strong El Nino's decline.

Wonder what, if any, effect it will have on the normal progression of SST there...assuming that extra wet rainy season comes with extra clouds and/or wind.


Oh I doubt it will be a problem. All a rainy May does is foreshadow a bad hurricane season when there's a dying El Nino. The Caribbean is warm enough to support minimal hurricanes year-round. Besides, the models that are forecasting above-normal precipitation there all spring and summer long are also forecasting above-normal SSTs throughout the summer.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Our favorite west FL/Gulf buoy way out in the gulf stream did reach 27 C (~ 81 F) by May 15 last year. So, yeah, 80 degree water temps...I'll buy that. A May storm? Ehh, that would be quite an anomaly.

Buoy 42003: (this one) http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

2009 archive at: (scroll, scroll, scroll) http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/view_text_file.php?filename=42003h2009.txt.gz&dir=data/historical/stdm et/

Though, all of this makes me wonder about Audrey. The Gulf must have been good and warm in 1957 when a cat 4 spun up and hit SW LA on June 27.


Atmo, not many people realize we've had a named storm in the month of May for the last 3 years in a row, so if 2009 had one, I wouldn't call another one this year a big anomaly. Now if we make this year the 4th in a row to have a May storm, that could be considered an anomaly, so it would be both an anomaly and not at the same time...lol.
I think we'll get a storm before June 1.
Quoting Levi32:


Atmo, not many people realize we've had a named storm in the month of May for the last 3 years in a row, so if 2009 had one, I wouldn't call another one this year a big anomaly. Now if we make this year the 4th in a row to have a May storm, that could be considered an anomaly, so it would be both an anomaly and not at the same time...lol.

Equivalent of rolling an odd number on a die 4 times in a row .. each individual roll is 50/50 .. a string? that's unlikely and an anomaly :)
Claudette and Ida were the Farthest West a System came in the Atlantic and made landfall last year.



Grace was the Furthest East to form,and North

Quoting SouthALWX:

Equivalent of rolling an odd number on a die 4 times in a row .. each individual roll is 50/50 .. a string? that's unlikely and an anomaly :)

Climatology should be thrown out the window in such active seasons...

I think we'll have a storm in May this year, but it might come later in the month. If it's a strong TS or weak hurricane in the Caribbean+Gulf (Arlene '05, Alberto '06), it's a sure harbinger than we're going to have an active season. If it's a subtropical weakling in the NW Atlantic (Ana '03, Andrea '07, TD1 '09) then it's not really a sign of anything.
268. xcool
El Nino Rebound Seasons
by Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist , on Mar 18, 2010 5:29 pm ET
I thought I'd check the conventional wisdom that "El Nino rebound" hurricane seasons in the Atlantic basin are particularly dangerous. A quick historical look seems to support that.

First, the requisite caveats:

--I only quickly double-checked the statistics, and even if all of them are correct this is a cursory glance rather than a rigorous scientific analysis.

--Although the current El Nino is expected to wane as we head toward and through the hurricane season, there is uncertainty in what the "ENSO" situation will be.

Those having been stated ...

Below is a list of years in which, according to NOAA's data, El Nino was present the previous winter but was gone by the peak of the hurricane season, replaced by either neutral conditions or La Nina.

Some highlights:

12 of 13 seasons -- all of them except for one (1973) -- included hurricanes which produced significant damage.

I've selected some events (in red) which were particularly extreme, destructive, and/or unusual. Of the 13 seasons, 10 had such events, in some cases multiple ones. While that means that nearly 25% of those seasons did not, we're on a streak of the most recent 7 in a row having them (though note that not all of those events were in the U.S.).

In terms of the total number of storms/hurricanes/majors, the averages of these seasons are above the average of all the seasons.

At a glance, there doesn%u2019t seem to be much of a correlation between the strength of El Nino the previous winter and the outcome of the Atlantic hurricane season.

In addition to the El Nino factor, there's something else out there of note. In fact, it's stunning.

I've always been a bit skeptical of the importance of Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in how active a hurricane season ends up being -- not that they don't play a role, just that there are other crucial elements that don't always seem to be given enough credit, such as the atmospheric circulation pattern in mid-latitudes during the season. Nevertheless, in some years there has been a correlation between preseason SSTs in the TNA (Tropical North Atlantic) region and what happens during the season. And so far in 2010 not only has the water in that region been warm, but January's value set a record departure above average for any month in the historical record.

The graph below shows the recent meteoric spike (which as can be seen more clearly on another graph represents a huge turnaround from this time last year), and below that is how the warm water shows up on a map.

We'll have to see whether that extreme anomaly continues, and if El Nino ends, and if so exactly what that means for any given location in the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season (the devil is in the details), but the upshot of all this stuff is: Current signs point to a much different outcome in 2010 than in 2009, and in case this season follows in the footsteps of other recent El Nio rebound ones, people ought to not let last year's quietude lead to complacency.


Link


Hurricane Gustav makes landfall around 5 a.m. Sept. 1, 2008.



Experts say storm modeling needs improvement

By Nikki Buskey
Staff Writer

Published: Wednesday, March 17, 2010 at 1:00 p.m.
Last Modified: Wednesday, March 17, 2010 at 1:28 p.m.

( page 1 of 3 )

BATON ROUGE

During hurricanes and tropical storms, surge predictions can vary in accuracy, and just a few feet can make a big difference for communities like Terrebonne and Lafourche.

Related Links:

* Coastal groups urge elevation and relocation
* Information essential for planning
* Researchers: Data belies flood risk
* Forecasters to use new way to predict hurricane's punch
* Coastal official says federal interest in restoration improving
* Could a quake hit here? Some already have
* New levees will be tested by encroaching Gulf

A day before Hurricane Ike struck Terrebonne and Lafourche in 2008, storm-surge predictions varied from 5 to 8 feet for Terrebonne.

The actual surge was closer to 10 feet, which overtopped all of the community's levees.

Storm surge accounts for 90 percent of deaths during hurricanes and has done extensive damage to the Louisiana coast. A National Hurricane Center scientist said Tuesday that the ability to accurately predict storm surge needs to improve so the threat can be efficiently communicated to coastal communities.

Jamie Rhome, a storm-surge specialist with the National Hurricane Center, spoke at the 2010 Central Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Conference in Baton Rouge. The two-day conference brings together federal hurricane experts, academics, emergency officials and local government representatives to discuss issues facing the state during the next hurricane season.

Among local officials attending were Terrebonne Levee Director Reggie Dupre, South Lafourche Levee Director Windell Curole, North Lafourche Levee Manager Dwayne Bourgeois and Terrebonne Emergency Director Earl Eues.

When local emergency officials call me, they want to know: How much water will there be? When will it come and when will it leave? What will the impacts be to my area? And how should I respond? Rhome said.

Those may seem like basic questions, but exactly how to get those answers is still being studied, Rhome said. Various agencies are working to factor tides and waves into the models they run to predict storm-surge risks.

The National Weather Service now includes predictions of storm surge in its hurricane warnings, but Rhome said they've proved hard for the average citizen to understand.

That's because the predictions don't take into consideration the height of the tide during flooding or the size of waves that a storm could produce. Local emergency officials are left to calculate for themselves how those factors could increase flooding risks.

The National Weather Service also didn't subtract land elevations from their predictions, which could cause confusion for lay people looking at the information, Rhome said. A hurricane prediction might say that Houma will experience 10 to 12 feet of storm surge, which sounds dire. But to get a more accurate forecast, you would need to subtract the elevation above sea level of your home or business. If the building sits at 10 feet above sea level, for example, you might see little to no water at all.

Rhome said that percent of the calls he receives are related to that confusion.

Terrebonne Emergency Preparedness Director Earl Eues said during hurricanes Gustav and Ike the parish began using computer models of storm surge adjusted for elevation because they're much easier for the general person to understand.

Joseph Suhayda, a storm-surge modeler working with Louisiana State University, said scientists are working to better determine how landscape features like roads, barrier islands, marshes and levees influence storm-surge flooding.

Officials had suggested in the past that every 2.7 square feet of marsh would knock down storm surge by 1 foot. We now know that's not true, Suhayda said.

He added that open basins will allow floodwaters to disperse better, and if levees are constructed across basins, the fact that floodwaters will pile up against them needs to be taken into account.

Once the Morganza-to-the-Gulf hurricane-protection system is built across Terrebonne, for example, it will likely cause floodwaters to be piled up against the vulnerable west side of south Lafourche's Larose-to-Golden Meadow levee system.

South Lafourche is in the process of raising the southwest side of that system to 14 feet.

Rhome said that with more and more people relocating to coastal areas, there's a bigger push than ever before to better predict storm surge.

Between 1980 and 2003, population density in coastal areas has gone up 28 percent. Seventy-two percent of the nations ports, 27 percent of major roads and 9 percent of major railways are at or below 4 feet above sea level. That's a height very much at risk of major flooding.

That's over half of our economic productivity located in the coastal zone, Rhome said.This is not just a social issue; it's an economic issue.

Nikki Buskey can be reached at 857-2205 or nicole.buskey@houmatoday.com.
Not here or to the West yet Chief..,still Thursday night.


Evening..to yas
Quoting StormW:


LOL1

Guess I'll be seein' ya in Orlando.


It Will be here before ya know it.

Mark your calendar for the 2010 conference
March 29-April 2 * Hilton Orlando, Orlando, Florida






Purpose of the Conference

The primary goal of the National Hurricane Conference is to improve hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in order to save lives and property in the United States and the tropical islands of the Caribbean and Pacific. In addition, the conference serves as a national forum for federal, state and local officials to exchange ideas and recommend new policies to improve Emergency Management.

To accomplish these goals, the annual conference emphasizes:



* Lessons Learned from Hurricane Strikes.

* State of the art programs worthy of emulation.

* New ideas being tested or considered.

* Information about new or ongoing assistance programs.

* The ABC's of hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation -- in recognition of the fact that there is a continual turnover of emergency management leadership and staff.
2009




2010

strong looop current eddy
its march 19th its 50 degrees outside we should at 26 or 27 for this time of year
If a storm this year "shoots the gap" and comes up through the loop, it could get UGLY.... I have to wonder though ... wouldnt the colder anomalies over the NE pacific cause troughing over the US and push most storms out to fish land?
well its 1 am time for sleep TGIF last day of the work week
Quoting Seastep:


I am glad that we are studying it, too.

I don't agree with the impacts, though. Species adapt. Not just ours. If you have a steep change over a sustained period of time, I'd agree, but the Earth has never seen that kind of change, other than going into or out of an ice age.

Slow increases in temp over time won't affect anyone's way of life.

Theory and predictions have been put out there. So far, the observations do not support it.
. And, the more data we get, the less that green line will move. Will be very hard to validate after 10 or so more years. I am watching and waiting to see how observations match with predictions. So far, not so good. And that's the long term trend-line, from 1979



what i'm seeing here is a numbers game and a narrow scope of supporting claims. the fact is we have missing data to give us strong model validation, as well as incomplete theories of atmospheric behavioral relationships those models are based on. what is to be gained through efforts to invalidate an assumed invalid model? Atmo makes this point time and again that we are dealing with swiss cheese for data to model. so the effort here to invalidate the IPCC, i believe, is misguided.

we know properties about CO2 that indicates greenhouse effect attributes. we know relationships between high CO2 concentrations and temperature extremes. we don't know the chicken or egg yet, and I'll take none of that 'it's the sun stupid'... anything that ends in ...stupid, is well, "". We know solar cycles affect temperatures, but nothing here on Earth affects solar cycles. Any observations of long term trends in warming spanning over solar cycles ought indicate that local planetary contributors to temperatures are at play. i don't think we can dismiss rising concentrations of a known greenhouse gas simply because we cannot come up with supporting models due to our minimal long-term global climatology understanding and knowledge. i don't think it's intelligent to assume that there's no impact by CO2 until modeling agrees. the atmosphere is entirely too complex, yet very enclosed and interconnected from a planetary perspective.

and then that broad stroke on species adaptation... keep in mind that yes, those things occur but at scales of years beyond our lifetimes. it's an issue for us, because we each are here living our lives and valuing all rights to life assumed endowed. with millions and billions of us waltzing around here pumping the C02, we need to think about things in the scope of our lifetimes, and one would hope a thoughtfulness for our following generations too. so i feel your point is moot while we're in control of the agent of concern. now, big volcano goes and well, that's Earth dealing us a card where fatalism will be useful. but not now, not with this.
Yellowstone should blow soon enough .. then it won't matter who was right about global warming .. atleast not for a long while =P
Bluemle et al. present several lessons. First, over the last 60 million years, in central Europe, temperature has dropped by more than 20OC

Link

none of these temperature changes is human induced, suggesting that the fourth-order changes that might be induced by human activities may be transitory and of relatively low importance. However, there is a major point about climate to be made in context of the Pleistocene record. The graphs clearly show a range of variability, but it is important to note that cold periods are at least as frequent and perhaps longer lasting than warm periods.
Link
Figure 1-- Temperature fluctuation (mean annual temperatures) in central Europe Tertiary time, the past 60 million years. Except for a peak in early Eocene time, temperature decreased throughout the Tertiary. Beginning in late Pliocene/early Pleistocene time, with the onset of glacial conditions, temperatures fluctuated widely, ranging from full glacial to interglacial conditions. The modern condition is approximately +4 to +5ºC. Modified and adapted from Anderson and Borns (1997).
Link
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its march 19th its 50 degrees outside we should at 26 or 27 for this time of year


It's 50 here in Sarasota
Quoting SouthALWX:
If a storm this year "shoots the gap" and comes up through the loop, it could get UGLY.... I have to wonder though ... wouldnt the colder anomalies over the NE pacific cause troughing over the US and push most storms out to fish land?

Interesting perception...yeah, but El Nino is dying, so those anomalies won't last long either.
the thing about natural cycles.. they don't take us out of the equation. it's always an addition. now, is it a nominal addition or an impacting one? we don't know. variability is a certainty though, as records show.
@ Patrap. Those side-by-side gulf SST graphs in post 275 have a different scale. It's hard to compare them visually because of that.
Looks like Ului won't be able to make it to Cat 2 like I thought. She's a tropical storm right now. What went wrong was she upwelled cold water for so long that her core structure finally collapsed. If you noticed earlier this morning, the eye disappeared entirely just 6 hours before the new convection started popping. This took her out of the big league for good, and she is now having to start from scratch. The LLC is partially exposed now too. Major structural collapse due to cold water upwelling will be what saves Australia. There is still a chance for re-intensification into a hurricane before landfall in 36 hours, but nothing major.



Goodnight all.
Invest 98W in the WPAC

located near 3.0N 155.9E

pretty close to the equator

anyway night everyone


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:15pm EST on Friday the 19th of March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Ayr to Yeppoon.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cardwell to Ayr, extending to
adjacent inland parts.

At 4:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 2 was estimated to be
850 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and
1010 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and
moving southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Ului, category two intensity, is moving to the southwest
towards the Queensland coast.

The most likely scenario is for the cyclone to cross the coast Sunday morning
between Cardwell and Mackay and it may remain at category 2 intensity by
landfall.

Damaging winds should develop between Ayr and Yeppoon later on Saturday, then
increase further and extend to Cardwell and to adjacent inland parts on Sunday
morning as the cyclone nears the coast.

Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast.
Dangerous surf conditions are expected to develop about exposed beaches south of
the cyclone tonight and Saturday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is current
for these conditions.

People between Ayr and Yeppoon should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight
hours.
People between Cardwell and Ayr and adjacent inland parts should consider what
action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Tropical Cyclone Ului at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.4 degrees South 156.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 984 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm EST Friday 19 March.


TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0729 UTC 19/03/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.4S
Longitude: 156.2E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [221 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/W1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/1800: 18.7S 154.3E: 045 [085]: 055 [100]: 983
+24: 20/0600: 19.6S 151.9E: 075 [140]: 050 [095]: 986
+36: 20/1800: 20.1S 149.2E: 105 [195]: 050 [095]: 987
+48: 21/0600: 20.5S 146.6E: 135 [250]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 21/1800: 20.5S 144.3E: 165 [305]: 025 [045]: 1003
+72: 22/0600: 20.1S 142.2E: 195 [360]: 020 [035]: 1006
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Ului has weakened in the last 24 hours due to northwesterly
wind shear of about 20 knots. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern, the low
level circulation being witihin 0.5 of convection yielding a DT of 3.0,
MET/PT=2.5, DT=3.0 with CI being held higher at 3.5 and max wind at 55 knots.
This is consistent with latest AMSU estimates.

Models remain very consistent with the forecast track shifting more to the west
southwest on Saturday and crossing the coast between Townsville and Mackay on
Sunday morning, steered by the mid-level ridge to the south. As a result, there
is a higher than normal confidence in the track forecast.

Forecast intensity is held at category two through to landfall based on the
prospect of the shear easing during Saturday, arresting the weakening trend. It
remains possible that the Dvorak based intensity may decrease further in the
short term, the combination of convection persisting to the south aided by WSW
movement of 10 knots is expected to maintain the maximum winds of at least 50
knots to the south of the system.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
Again, it's amazingly warm in those areas where they no longer actually measure temperatures, but interpolate them, after adjusting them.
the cyclone moving toward queensland been around for a long while and is carrying alot moisture look out for maneating crocs on waterslides right after the storm passes tgif
Good Morning. Still waiting for "Spring" in North Florida........It's official on the calendar tommorow but temps still a bit cool for this time of the year and the majority of the flower buds have not fully opended yet; just "waiting" there to pop open when the temps rise a little more.
Ului has steadily weakened..
Actually Spring starts tomorrow..

Vernal Equinox Mar 20 2010 1:32 PM EDT
Summer Solstice Jun 21 2010 7:28 AM EDT
Autumnal Equinox Sep 22 2010 11:09 PM EDT
Winter Solstice Dec 21 2010 6:38 PM EST
NOAA
Quoting StormW:


Actually, spring is today


I think I got a "bum" calendar from Office Depot....First day of Spring is noted as tommorow; maybe it was printed in China..... :)
Quoting Skyepony:
Actually Spring starts tomorrow..

Vernal Equinox Mar 20 2010 1:32 PM EDT
Summer Solstice Jun 21 2010 7:28 AM EDT
Autumnal Equinox Sep 22 2010 11:09 PM EDT
Winter Solstice Dec 21 2010 6:38 PM EST
NOAA


Thanks; I guess the Chinese got it right after all.......
News, info, and lottsa great music tailor made for cruising sailors knocking about the tropics...for your listening pleasure while blogging...

Link
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I think I got a "bum" calendar from Office Depot....First day of Spring is noted as tommorow; maybe it was printed in China..... :)
Tomorrow, 1732 UTC...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equinox
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hi guys
check it out





What does it mean?
Massive dike proposal not new for Galveston

Associated Press - March 19, 2010 8:24 AM ET

GALVESTON, Texas (AP) - Another time, another hurricane led to plans for a massive dike to protect Galveston and Bolivar Peninsula from future deadly storms.

The 1900 hurricane that walloped Galveston claimed at least 6,000 lives in the deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history.

A 1902 blueprint, discovered at the Galveston District Clerk's Office weeks after 2008's Hurricane Ike, outlined a sprawling dike proposal that never became a reality.

The Houston Chronicle reported Friday that the nearly century-old plan would have put Galveston behind a seawall that extended to the bay side of the island.

A Galveston seawall built in 1904, and extended several times, covers about 10 miles.

Ike swamped parts of the city and left more than three dozen people dead in southeast Texas.

The post-Ike proposal, from Texas A&M-Galveston professor William Merrell, features a 55-mile barrier, 17 feet high, to be built along the Gulf coast.

Information from: Houston Chronicle, http://www.houstonchronicle.com
Quoting Minnemike:
Atmo makes this point time and again that we are dealing with swiss cheese for data to model.

Hehe. Decent analogy, but you're giving our data records a little too much credit. What we actually have in observations is closer to the holes in the swiss...and there all in one corner of the block.
Link powerpoint slide of the Ike Dike proposal...

www.guidrynews.com/09January/03009Merrell.pptx
Quoting Skyepony:
Massive dike proposal not new for Galveston

Associated Press - March 19, 2010 8:24 AM ET

GALVESTON, Texas (AP) - Another time, another hurricane led to plans for a massive dike to protect Galveston and Bolivar Peninsula from future deadly storms.

The 1900 hurricane that walloped Galveston claimed at least 6,000 lives in the deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history.

A 1902 blueprint, discovered at the Galveston District Clerk's Office weeks after 2008's Hurricane Ike, outlined a sprawling dike proposal that never became a reality.

The Houston Chronicle reported Friday that the nearly century-old plan would have put Galveston behind a seawall that extended to the bay side of the island.

A Galveston seawall built in 1904, and extended several times, covers about 10 miles.

Ike swamped parts of the city and left more than three dozen people dead in southeast Texas.

The post-Ike proposal, from Texas A&M-Galveston professor William Merrell, features a 55-mile barrier, 17 feet high, to be built along the Gulf coast.

Information from: Houston Chronicle, http://www.houstonchronicle.com
The "Ike Dike" is a total boondoggle. To build it would cost on the order of $8-22 Billion, would take anywhere from 2-10 years, and would dramatically impact everything from shipping to recreation to fishing in the area. Not to mention, many of the proposed plans would do absolutely nothing for areas outside the coverage, and could possibly make it significantly worse for those outside the dike's coverage.

Many of the lives lost during Ike were people who chose to stay, completely ignoring the dire warnings put out by the authorities. The damage on Galveston island was due people living on a barrier island - something a fancy 17-foot dike won't fix.

Also, another toll that the dike will take is that of tourism on the island. With the dike in place, tourism on the island will likely change, as both the view, wave action, and beaches will drastically change.
309. MTWX
Quoting jeffs713:
The "Ike Dike" is a total boondoggle. To build it would cost on the order of $8-22 Billion, would take anywhere from 2-10 years, and would dramatically impact everything from shipping to recreation to fishing in the area. Not to mention, many of the proposed plans would do absolutely nothing for areas outside the coverage, and could possibly make it significantly worse for those outside the dike's coverage.

Many of the lives lost during Ike were people who chose to stay, completely ignoring the dire warnings put out by the authorities. The damage on Galveston island was due people living on a barrier island - something a fancy 17-foot dike won't fix.

Also, another toll that the dike will take is that of tourism on the island. With the dike in place, tourism on the island will likely change, as both the view, wave action, and beaches will drastically change.

I agree...


Hurricane Gustav makes landfall around 5 a.m. Sept. 1, 2008.



Experts say storm modeling needs improvement

By Nikki Buskey
Staff Writer

Published: Wednesday, March 17, 2010 at 1:00 p.m.
Last Modified: Wednesday, March 17, 2010 at 1:28 p.m.

( page 1 of 3 )

BATON ROUGE

During hurricanes and tropical storms, surge predictions can vary in accuracy, and just a few feet can make a big difference for communities like Terrebonne and Lafourche.

Related Links:

* Coastal groups urge elevation and relocation
* Information essential for planning
* Researchers: Data belies flood risk
* Forecasters to use new way to predict hurricane's punch
* Coastal official says federal interest in restoration improving
* Could a quake hit here? Some already have
* New levees will be tested by encroaching Gulf

A day before Hurricane Ike struck Terrebonne and Lafourche in 2008, storm-surge predictions varied from 5 to 8 feet for Terrebonne.

The actual surge was closer to 10 feet, which overtopped all of the community's levees.

Storm surge accounts for 90 percent of deaths during hurricanes and has done extensive damage to the Louisiana coast. A National Hurricane Center scientist said Tuesday that the ability to accurately predict storm surge needs to improve so the threat can be efficiently communicated to coastal communities.

Jamie Rhome, a storm-surge specialist with the National Hurricane Center, spoke at the 2010 Central Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Conference in Baton Rouge. The two-day conference brings together federal hurricane experts, academics, emergency officials and local government representatives to discuss issues facing the state during the next hurricane season.

Among local officials attending were Terrebonne Levee Director Reggie Dupre, South Lafourche Levee Director Windell Curole, North Lafourche Levee Manager Dwayne Bourgeois and Terrebonne Emergency Director Earl Eues.

When local emergency officials call me, they want to know: How much water will there be? When will it come and when will it leave? What will the impacts be to my area? And how should I respond? Rhome said.

Those may seem like basic questions, but exactly how to get those answers is still being studied, Rhome said. Various agencies are working to factor tides and waves into the models they run to predict storm-surge risks.

The National Weather Service now includes predictions of storm surge in its hurricane warnings, but Rhome said they've proved hard for the average citizen to understand.

That's because the predictions don't take into consideration the height of the tide during flooding or the size of waves that a storm could produce. Local emergency officials are left to calculate for themselves how those factors could increase flooding risks.

The National Weather Service also didn't subtract land elevations from their predictions, which could cause confusion for lay people looking at the information, Rhome said. A hurricane prediction might say that Houma will experience 10 to 12 feet of storm surge, which sounds dire. But to get a more accurate forecast, you would need to subtract the elevation above sea level of your home or business. If the building sits at 10 feet above sea level, for example, you might see little to no water at all.

Rhome said that percent of the calls he receives are related to that confusion.

Terrebonne Emergency Preparedness Director Earl Eues said during hurricanes Gustav and Ike the parish began using computer models of storm surge adjusted for elevation because they're much easier for the general person to understand.

Joseph Suhayda, a storm-surge modeler working with Louisiana State University, said scientists are working to better determine how landscape features like roads, barrier islands, marshes and levees influence storm-surge flooding.

Officials had suggested in the past that every 2.7 square feet of marsh would knock down storm surge by 1 foot. We now know that's not true, Suhayda said.

He added that open basins will allow floodwaters to disperse better, and if levees are constructed across basins, the fact that floodwaters will pile up against them needs to be taken into account.

Once the Morganza-to-the-Gulf hurricane-protection system is built across Terrebonne, for example, it will likely cause floodwaters to be piled up against the vulnerable west side of south Lafourche's Larose-to-Golden Meadow levee system.

South Lafourche is in the process of raising the southwest side of that system to 14 feet.

Rhome said that with more and more people relocating to coastal areas, there's a bigger push than ever before to better predict storm surge.

Between 1980 and 2003, population density in coastal areas has gone up 28 percent. Seventy-two percent of the nations ports, 27 percent of major roads and 9 percent of major railways are at or below 4 feet above sea level. That's a height very much at risk of major flooding.

That's over half of our economic productivity located in the coastal zone, Rhome said.This is not just a social issue; it's an economic issue.

Nikki Buskey can be reached at 857-2205 or nicole.buskey@houmatoday.com.
Interesting stuff on the Ike Dike.
But, go ahead and build it, I say.
Since when did anyone need to be rational in these things? A project like this will surely be welcomed as it will employ thousands of people and provide work for all the equipment that can be found, for years.
And dont forget that the taxpayer in Oregon and New Hampshire and Ohio get to help fund it too.
And dont forget, that the next big blow will clear it all away anyway, so the negative effects on tourism wont be long lasting anyway.
Just imagine the boost to the southern economy!
heheheheh
Quoting pottery:
Interesting stuff on the Ike Dike.
But, go ahead and build it, I say.
Since when did anyone need to be rational in these things? A project like this will surely be welcomed as it will employ thousands of people and provide work for all the equipment that can be found, for years.
And dont forget that the taxpayer in Oregon and New Hampshire and Ohio get to help fund it too.
And dont forget, that the next big blow will clear it all away anyway, so the negative effects on tourism wont be long lasting anyway.
Just imagine the boost to the southern economy!
heheheheh



Easy to state that when your thousands of Miles away from the Impact area,..

And we all pay in the end with Insurance hikes,Fed assistance,..and more. Without the Dike,..the Super Storms that are to come and are occurring,will continue to take the toll like Ike did,,just a strong Cat 2,pushing a Cat 3 surge.

Ike also took 80 lives as well.

Hard to put a figure on Life too.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Warning
Tropical Cyclone Ului, CAT 2
11:00 PM EST March 19 2010
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 2 (983 hPa) located at 18.0S 155.7E or 770 kms east northeast of Mackay and 950 kms east of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Ului, category two intensity, is moving to the southwest towards the Queensland coast.

The most likely scenario is for the cyclone to cross the coast Sunday morning between Cardwell and Mackay and it may remain at category 2 intensity by landfall.

Damaging winds should develop between Ayr and Yeppoon later on Saturday, then increase further and extend to Cardwell and to adjacent inland parts on Sunday morning as the cyclone nears the coast.

Heavy rainfall and flooding are likely to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence early Sunday.

Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast. Dangerous surf conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south of the cyclone until later on Sunday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for these conditions.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24hrs

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM from the center in northern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 19.0S 153.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 19.7S 151.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 20.4S 146.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 18.6S 140.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Ayr to Yeppoon.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cardwell to Ayr.

Additional Information
==========================
Tropical Cyclone Ului has weakened in the last 24 hours due to northwesterly wind shear, however shear has appeared to weaken over the past 6 hours. Dvorak analysis still based on shear pattern, the low level circulation being within approx. 0.5 degrees of convection yielding a DT of 3.0, MET/PT=3.0, DT=3.0 with CI being held higher at 3.5 and max wind at 55 knots. The system has taken on a more curved band structure on most recent satellite images.

Models remain very consistent with the forecast track shifting more to the west southwest on Saturday and crossing the coast between Townsville and Mackay on Sunday morning, steered by the mid-level ridge to the south. As a result, there is a higher than normal confidence in the track forecast.

Forecast intensity is held at category two through to landfall based on the prospect of the shear continuing to ease during Saturday, arresting the weakening trend. It remains possible that the Dvorak based intensity may decrease further in the short term, the combination of convection persisting to the south aided by WSW movement of 10 knots is expected to maintain the maximum winds of at least 50 knots to the south of the system.
But hey,,on the bright side of things..



ITS FRIDAY!!!!! Im in Love


Cyclone Ului

Cyclone Ului is down to a tropical storm after 3 straight days of upwelling took her all the way down from a Cat 5. As I mentioned last night, Ului had the chance to re-strengthen quickly, but lost it when her core structure finally caved in. She moved much slower than anyone anticipated, causing more upwelling for a longer time. Her eye totally collapsed about 6 hours before she finally moved over warmer waters. The result was a much smaller storm starting essentially from scratch with no core structure whatsoever. This task is too much for Ului, and her weakening has left upper-level conditions less than perfect to boot.

Some deep convection is firing again but Ului doesn't have the time to accomplish much with what she's got to work with. Queensland can expect a strong tropical storm or minimal Cat 1 at landfall, certainly several large steps down from what they thought they would have to face. Landfall is expected in 24-36 hours between Cannonvale and Townsville. The exact landfall location is hard to pinpoint as the coast is very slanted in that region, making any slight deviation in course affect the landfall location by dozens of miles. Regardless, that entire stretch of coastline will feel the full effects of whatever Ului brings ashore.



And no, that's not half of an eyewall developing, although I know it looks like it. The center is actually to the north of that niche, with most of the convection to the south:

I have seen the ten miles of Galveston Dike, It seems HUGE and then just ends near a horse pasture. I didn't see anything to stop the water from going around. Why one section of beach needed the huge armor and the next one nothing has to be something I wasn't aware of. My mind went to odd bathymetry focusing waves but are you saying it was budget cuts?
Yeesh.
Navarre Beach FL took a simpler approach to reconstructing the beaches after 04's Ivan and 05's Dennis and Rita. In some places, Ivan's surge removed 20+ feet of sand beneath the newer beach houses. Just feet away in many cases, an older beach house simply disappeared, pilings and all, gone, looked as though nothing was ever there. Dennis and Rita made a bad situation worse. Instead of a wall, we dredged the sand up and put it back to where it was PLUS built a mound between the houses and the water line. This mound won't stop an Ivan-like surge but will protect the houses, road and other infrastructure from the 15'- surges.