WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Globe has 2nd - 7th warmest October on record; U.S., 3rd coldest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:30 PM GMT on November 23, 2009

The globe recorded its sixth warmest October since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated October 2009 as the 2nd warmest October on record, falling 0.06°C short of the record set in 2005, while the UK HADCRUT3 data set rated October the 7th warmest (this data set does not include most of the Arctic, Antarctic, and Africa, where there are few land stations). NOAA rated the year-to-date period, January - October 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. The October satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 6th - 7th warmest on record. Global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies were the 5th warmest on record.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Third coldest and top wettest October on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average October temperature was 4.0°F below average, making it the 3rd coldest October in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The cold was centered in the Midwest, where Oklahoma had its coolest October on record and ten other states had a top five coolest October. The nationwide precipitation of 4.15 inches was nearly double the long-term average of 2.11 inches. Three states (Iowa, Arkansas, and Louisiana) saw their record wettest October. Fourteen other states had precipitation readings ranking in their top five category. Only three states (Florida, Utah, and Arizona) saw below normal precipitation. Arkansas continued its remarkable run of wetness in 2009. The state has seen four months with top three precipitation ranks this year (May, 1st wettest; July, 3rd wettest; September, 2nd wettest; October, 1st wettest). As a result, the state's year-to-date average is the wettest in 115 years of record keeping. This contrasted with persistent dryness in Arizona, which saw its second-driest year-to-date period.

U.S. drought decreases
At the end of October, 12% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is the second-smallest drought footprint of the decade, based on the U.S. Drought Monitor. Major drought episodes in California and South Texas improved significantly. Drought conditions emerged across much of Arizona. About 45% of the contiguous United States had moderately-to-extremely wet conditions at the end of October, according to the Palmer Index (a well-known index that measures both drought intensity and wet spell intensity). This is the largest such footprint since February 2005.

As I commented in a post earlier this year, drought, on average, has not been increasing in the U.S. over the past few decades. The exception is the Southwest U.S. Increased drought is my top concern in regards to the potential effects of climate change over the next 40 years, and I am pleased to see that so far we have not seen increased drought in the U.S. A recent paper by Andreadis et al., 2006, summed up 20th century drought in the U.S. thusly: "Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the country over the last century. The main exception is the Southwest and parts of the interior of the West, where, notwithstanding increased precipitation (and in some cases increased soil moisture and runoff), increased temperature has led to trends in drought characteristics that are mostly opposite to those for the rest of the country especially in the case of drought duration and severity, which have increased."

However, drought may be increasing for the world as a whole. Dai and Trenberth (2004) showed that areas experiencing the three highest categories of drought--severe, extreme, and exceptional--more than doubled (from about 12% to 30%) since the 1970s, with a large jump in the early 1980s due to an El Niño-related precipitation decrease over land, and subsequent increases primarily due to warming temperatures. I've neglected drought in my blogs, and plan to do a thorough investigation and report on the latest research now that hurricane season is over.

U.S. fire activity
October, like September, saw below-normal fire activity in all respects. A total of 3,207 fires burned about 158,000 acres in October, according to the National Interagency Coordination Center. Each of these values is below this decade's average for October.

Strong El Niño conditions develop
El Niño conditions intensified from moderate to strong over the tropical Eastern Pacific in October. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.7°C above average on November 15, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. El Niño conditions appear to have stabilized over the past week, and no further intensification of El Niño is likely for the remainder of November. Model forecasts favor moderate to strong El Niño conditions during the Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2009 - 2010.

October sea ice extent in the Arctic 2nd lowest on record
October 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 2nd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2007 saw lower Arctic sea ice extent. During the first two weeks of November, Arctic ice extent decreased below the 2007 record minimum, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The record low ice extent this month is the first extended period of record minimum Arctic sea ice since 2007. The new record minimum suggests that the gains in ice seen over the past two years were probably a temporary fluctuation due to normal year-to-year variability in the weather, and that the long-term Arctic sea ice decline observed since the 1970s is continuing.


Figure 2. Departure of Arctic sea ice from average for October 2009. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

References
Andreadis, K. M. Lettenmaier, D. P., "Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States", Geo. Res. Letters 33, 10, L10403, DOI 10.1029/2006GL025711

Dai A., K.E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, 2004: A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 18702002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming", J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 11171130.

Next post
I'm working on a rather lengthy analysis of the global warming scientist vs. skeptic controversy, including last week's hacked email affair. I'll post it when I get it done, most likely on Tuesday, but perhaps Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the information Dr. Masters. I WILL BE LOOKING FOR YOUR NEXT BLOG!!!! Should be interesting.
Thanks Dr.M!
If you live in Florida especially the penisula watchout for severe weather TWICE next week. Two possible very strong storms coming up out from the GOM. This severe weather potential could be very high next Tuesday.
While its been a cold and wet year here in the mountains of northern New Mexico, winter hasnt started yet. Usually, November is our coldest month but its been like September. I cant say that it bothers me much. I'm loving the warmth.

I took a good chunk of time I didnt have and read through many of the emails from the CRU hack and I focused on the "controversial" emails. What struck me is what a non-story this is. There is no there there. No conspiracy, no lying about or nefarious manipulation of the data. Nothing.

But the goal, as with all sceptics, is just to sow an ounce of doubt. Just a very tiny bit of doubt. Its an easy job which is why they've been so successful. This will help that and the hack was well-timed in the lead up to Copehagen.
I hate to wishcast but the facts are that factors could be in place for a superstorm that provides a blizzard to people in the south that normally don't get snow at all. Florida potentially a high tornado threat in the warm sector. New Orleans to the Northeast potential SNOWSTORM. This is depending on the modeling over the next several days.
A couple of re-posts.

X'Ida'Easter - Around 30N and 45-50W.





It just WONT DIE. Wow!

24 Hours of X'Ida'Easter (not the best perspective, she's in that void)



She organized quite quickly overnight but I wonder about the environment moving in on her NW. Shear moving in rapidly so the window would be small here if she were to do something.

Still amazing though. This is 24 days now since the SW Caribbean first gave us reason to start watching.


==================================

GFS bombing a nor'easter for the mid-atlantic around the 120 hour range.

168hr GFS Model


The political and corporate side of the climate change issue is disturbing.

One the one side if you prove Global Warming beyond a reasonable doubt then you open the gates for the "New Alternate Energy" sectors to get grants to further their research and projects no matter how futile some of those may be - and then you have wasted money.

On the other side if you prove Global Warming to be a farce beyond a reasonable doubt then you open the flood gates for companies currently operating carelessly to continue doing so. Coal fired power plants, gasoline powered vehicles. There will be less of a need for restrictions on such because if it's proven they are NOT contributing to climate change then why spend money governing these entities?

So, no matter what, we've got the old double edged sword here and it's why I detest politics and they should stay out of it.

Let the scientists continue their research instead of them being used as pawns to further a political/corporate standpoint.

I will say this: We still know next to nothing given how nasty the debates get in regards to GW.

You have one side trotting out charts and graphs that claim to have proven trustworthy data going back hundreds and in some cases thousands of years showing a non-stop runaway warming trend.

You have another side showing proof that the data collection is untrustworthy in many ways and that you can't compare an Eskimo who uses a shot of vodka on his window sill to tell whether or not it's gone under -40F outside from 250 years ago - to a polar satellite that was launched 15 years ago and began to take infared readings of the surface of the arctic.

And both argue who is right.

It's sad, really, but it's what it is and why I stay out of the meat of these arguments and simply state what I believe:

The data collected is trustworthy to maybe 15 years ago and you can't apply it to any argument that the planet is warming or not. You just can't no matter how hard you try.

Ice cores are interesting except you still can't tell whether or not you had a warmer or cooler year - OR - simply a higher or lower precipitation year. You can't. So you can't see a thin layer of ice and say "oh, here we go, WARM YEAR it didnt snow as much!" - because - it could have been an incredibly COLD AND DRY year - giving you the same result: A thin ice layer.

So, well...that's where I'm going to leave it: The data is untrustworthy. It's tainted in various ways.
When we do this:

==
The globe recorded its sixth warmest October since record keeping began in 1880
==

Are we comparing only the same exact stations that were in service in 1880? Or do we average all stations from 1880 and compare them to all stations in 2009 averaged?

For...then you're really lending proof to a TAINTED DATA SET because the number and position of 1880's weather stations are nothing like those of 2009.

You'd be comparing a few hundred stations scattered about in only the most populated regions - with tens of thousands of stations throughout the world.

How can you compare such data?

Simple answer: You really can't.
I can't wait to see this! We have heard the proponents from both sides without any real objectivity included that I could see. Doc, I sure hope you are really objective in this - whichever way it goes.

Next post
I'm working on a rather lengthy analysis of the global warming scientist vs. skeptic controversy, including last week's hacked email affair. I'll post it when I get it done, most likely on Tuesday, but perhaps Wednesday.
P451,

One more thing I would like to offer. I could get behind "Cap and Trade" only if they establish a new government entity like the post office to run it. It would be completely self sustaining from the fees, allow no civilian contractors and have only standard govt. wage employees. I'll bet Al Gore and his cronies would choke on their soup. Global Warming and he can't make a profit. I love it.
451, I see you are still keeping an eye on X Ida.

Local forecasters aren't saying much about the possible NEasterly that has been showing up on the GFS.
Quoting P451:
A couple of re-posts.

X'Ida'Easter - Around 30N and 45-50W.





It just WONT DIE. Wow!

24 Hours of X'Ida'Easter (not the best perspective, she's in that void)



She organized quite quickly overnight but I wonder about the environment moving in on her NW. Shear moving in rapidly so the window would be small here if she were to do something.

Still amazing though. This is 24 days now since the SW Caribbean first gave us reason to start watching.


==================================

GFS bombing a nor'easter for the mid-atlantic around the 120 hour range.

168hr GFS Model



Looks like it should have a name to me, convection around the center, shear is only 15-20 knots right now.. Good outflow to, it's in the best conditions since it's arrival in the GOM.
Hope this isn't the last such message about QuikScat (as that would mean it came back).

NESDIS HAS INFORMED US THAT THE FLOW OF QUIKSCAT DATA WAS INTERRUPTED AROUND 23/0000Z. THE MISSION OPERATIONS CENTER IN BOULDER REPORTED DATA FROM THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE PASSES WAS LOST. NO INFORMATION ON WHEN THE DATA FLOW MIGHT BE RESTORED.

No comment right now. Got a few things to do before our power goes out.

(It has been rather calm for 3 days, so our wind-driven power is nonexistent. And we haven't been able to build any power plants, so demand is far exceeding supply right now. Rolling brownouts...unless we get no wind in the next 2 days, then, well, potential blackouts for up to 24 hours at a time. Hope the hospitals can handle the load of the seniors without generators...)
/fortune_telling_off
Post 6



Good Old Ida
Quoting lawntonlookers:
451, I see you are still keeping an eye on X Ida.

Local forecasters aren't saying much about the possible NEasterly that has been showing up on the GFS.


The big show is next week not this week. Get ready next week for 2 big storms possibly getting involved with arctic air.
Ok, I openly admit that I am not the sharpest pencil in the Box.... but I have no idea what this means.

Globe has 2nd - 7th warmest October on record; U.S., 3rd coldest
The whole stormtrack has changed in the US and Artic air is going to be plunging down into the US combined with some serious storms in the east,going to be interesting.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ok, I openly admit that I am not the sharpest pencil in the Box.... but I have no idea what this means.

Globe has 2nd - 7th warmest October on record; U.S., 3rd coldest


IM pretty sure hes saying the whole glode saw some places with 2nd warmer through 7th warm areas. and one place where it was 3rd coldest.
Quoting StormChaser81:


IM pretty sure hes saying the whole glode saw some places with 2nd warmer through 7th warm areas. and one place where it was 3rd coldest.


Now don't get me wrong.... I am not a GW person either way... but doesn't that sort of sound like cherry picking data?

Quoting StormChaser81:


IM pretty sure hes saying the whole glode saw some places with 2nd warmer through 7th warm areas. and one place where it was 3rd coldest.



That's what makes it so interesting. It all depends on what data you input. I think the 7th warmest was using the UK HADCRUT3 which does not include certain areas.

Quoting NEwxguy:
The whole stormtrack has changed in the US and Artic air is going to be plunging down into the US combined with some serious storms in the east,going to be interesting.


This pattern is setting it self up this week only to have serious storms next week mixing with some of this arctic air that was in Alaska last week. All the way to the central gulf coast coast could get some snow with blizzard conditions north and east from there. We will see if this verifies like the GFS and some of the other models are indicating.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Now don't get me wrong.... I am not a GW person either way... but doesn't that sort of sound like cherry picking data?



I'd say yes but with the temperature anomalies chart and it being the whole globe chart. Im pretty sure those are just random places that saw more variance in temperatures.

A big scandal is getting ready to blow on the GW alarmist.

>Link
My mantra: Climate change means erratic and/or extreme weather patterns, not necessarily "warming" or "cooling."

Sigh, way too logical.

Ummm, I see a lot of "super-latives" concerning storms next week. Could anyone go out on a limb and get a little more specific, yet?

Florida's a pretty big state, and the east coast is a lot of territory, too. I'm not being facetious, I'd like to know a little more if it's possible. And words accompanying charts and graphs are very helpful, thanks.

Hope StormW and others come in this morning re "superstorm" forecasts. Oh, and good morning, though it's rather gloomy here.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
My mantra: Climate change means erratic and/or extreme weather patterns, not necessarily "warming" or "cooling."

Sigh, way too logical.

Ummm, I see a lot of "super-latives" concerning storms next week. Could anyone go out on a limb and get a little more specific, yet?

Florida's a pretty big state, and the east coast is a lot of territory, too. I'm not being facetious, I'd like to know a little more if it's possible. And words accompanying charts and graphs are very helpful, thanks.

Hope StormW and others come in this morning re "superstorm" forecasts. Oh, and good morning, though it's rather gloomy here.


Welcome to the winter version of blob watching. Models hinting at things too many days away to be taken seriously. Something to watch for so you are not surprised but, don't count on it either.
Quoting SQUAWK:
P451,

One more thing I would like to offer. I could get behind "Cap and Trade" only if they establish a new government entity like the post office to run it. It would be completely self sustaining from the fees, allow no civilian contractors and have only standard govt. wage employees. I'll bet Al Gore and his cronies would choke on their soup. Global Warming and he can't make a profit. I love it.


+1.
You want to go back to work for Uncle Sam, Squawk, and run this department?
Can I work for you? I have a resume that meets USG requirements for you to look over (one good thing that "reinventing Gov't" Gore & friends did...no longer have to use the very painful SF-171 to apply for jobs.) :)
Quoting SQUAWK:


Welcome to the winter version of blob watching. Models hinting at things too many days away to be taken seriously. Something to watch for so you are not surprised but, don't count on it either.

Many thanks...guess it's obvious this is my first fall/winter, lol.
Quoting StormChaser81:


I'd say yes but with the temperature anomalies chart and it being the whole globe chart. Im pretty sure those are just random places that saw more variance in temperatures.


I still have a problem with that state of the climate report and the SST anomaly (70% of that globe).

Compare if you will the current plot of October with the smallest red dot being 1 degree C above a 1971 - 2000 baseline:



To the NESDIS/National Climactic Data Center SST anomaly for Oct 14 with respect to the same baseline period:


Where the first orange color, not yellow, is the 1 degree C positive delineation.

There is almost nowhere that has a +2 C anomaly, yet it is all over the NOAA climate map. Hawaii should have some up-to-1 C positive anomaly to it's south, but is surrounded by that and higher. The NOAA climate plot has almost no areas of 0 anomaly, but what is the single largest area in the NCDC anomaly plot? Gray, as in less than +/- 0.5 C. There are obviously many more discrepancies, and a few areas where they do agree, too.

The NOAA climate plot largely disagrees every month and has been explained away by interpolation techniques and carrying land station obs out, away from land, to the SST values.

No, I am not any more satisfied with these rather bogus explanations, either.
GFS has been blowing up nor'easters all season,but with that said,things are changing,so I expect things to get very intersting in the east.
Quoting SQUAWK:


Welcome to the winter version of blob watching. Models hinting at things too many days away to be taken seriously. Something to watch for so you are not surprised but, don't count on it either.


The potential is Florida and especially the whole Florida penisula could experience severe weather on Tuesday. On the cold side of this storm next week we could be looking a major snowstorm. Too early to pinpoint exact locations of who will get snow. This is only a POTENTIAL matter right now. We will need more models runs to see if this does verify.
One more thing I would like to offer. I could get behind "Cap and Trade" only if they establish a new government entity like the post office to run it.
??? *Hearing nails on blackboard*

What do you do if you have a document, package, etc. that absolutely must reach it's destination, be insured, and be trackable?

Personally, a trip over to the USPS is NOT in my plans for such an item.

And what if the line at the post office were to occur at a privately-owned retail store and then the counter worker acted like, umm, they worked for USPS? You would walk out and never come back. Period.

I think the post office is an excellent example of why the government should not be getting into any business...regulate, sure, but be directly involved? Heck no.
Quoting atmoaggie:

I still have a problem with that state of the climate report and the SST anomaly (70% of that globe).

Compare if you will the current plot of October with the smallest red dot being 1 degree C above a 1971 - 2000 baseline:



To the NESDIS/National Climactic Data Center SST anomaly for Oct 14 with respect to the same baseline period:


Where the first orange color, not yellow, is the 1 degree C positive delineation.

There is almost nowhere that has a +2 C anomaly, yet it is all over the NOAA climate map. Hawaii should have some up-to-1 C positive anomaly to it's south, but is surrounded by that and higher. The NOAA climate plot has almost no areas of 0 anomaly, but what is the single largest area in the NCDC anomaly plot? Gray, as in less than +/- 0.5 C. There are obviously many more discrepancies, and a few areas where they do agree, too.

The NOAA climate plot largely disagrees every month and has been explained away by interpolation techniques and carrying land station obs out, away from land, to the SST values.

No, I am not any more satisfied with these rather bogus explanations, either.

Umm... water heats (and cools) more slowly than the air? Look at the GOM for an example. When a cold front comes through, SSTs do not drop as quickly as the air temp... and during the spring, SSTs will not heat as quickly, either. Also, SSTs are a snapshot of up to a week. Air temp values are averaged over an entire month.
You are all going to be taxed for the air you breathe. The more you breathe the more carbon you exhale into the atmosphere. You will be monitored by a tracking device when your're born and implanted into the body. Older folks as us will be taxed base on estimates of our age and lifespan. One world government is well under way and you all are going to be my slaves, says the UN and Uncle Sam. And we will implant a chip in your hand in order for you to buy things or you will die.
Quoting atmoaggie:
One more thing I would like to offer. I could get behind "Cap and Trade" only if they establish a new government entity like the post office to run it.
??? *Hearing nails on blackboard*

What do you do if you have a document, package, etc. that absolutely must reach it's destination, be insured, and be trackable?

Personally, a trip over to the USPS is NOT in my plans for such an item.

And what if the line at the post office were to occur at a privately-owned retail store and then the counter worker acted like, umm, they worked for USPS? You would walk out and never come back. Period.

I think the post office is an excellent example of why the government should not be getting into any business...regulate, sure, but be directly involved? Heck no.


Atmo, I agree with you completely. The thing is, I will never have to deal with them, investors and Gore can't make a profit (ones most vigorously pushing AGW) and just the suggestion that it will go that way will probably shut the Gore Kool-Aid crowd down.
32. (Off-topic warning, sorta')
AtmoAggie, I'm sorry if you've found the USPS to be unsatisfactory, but most of our local offices are GREAT, really, and we all know "the one" to avoid. I just pay for a Priority or Express envelope, and put that 60 cent sticker with the green line on it, and I'm good to go! If it's really important, register it. WAY cheaper than UPS or FedEx, and just as reliable. I can only remember one mess-up, and eventually it showed up, though not in proper time frame.

Oh, neither I nor anyone in any of my close circles has ever worked for the post office. I just think they do a great job, considering. Hope they don't cut out Saturday delivery...that would really screw up our Netflix viewing :)

I like very much you're being our blog guardian of hard science but on this I'm daring to disagree :)
Quoting jeffs713:

Umm... water heats (and cools) more slowly than the air? Look at the GOM for an example. When a cold front comes through, SSTs do not drop as quickly as the air temp... and during the spring, SSTs will not heat as quickly, either. Also, SSTs are a snapshot of up to a week. Air temp values are averaged over an entire month.

What? Globally, SST values for a week from the middle of the month should be represented at least somewhat closely in the monthly analysis.

Here is the one from the next week.


How did NOAA get +2 and +3 C for most of the Atlantic!?!
It is not there!

Don't understand your point about air and water temps. Sure the passage of a cold front might have air temps well below water temps, but globally, averaged over an entire month, night and day, with respect to "normal", and given that we do not have historical or satellite air temp over the oceans, SST should match up.
AMEN!!!Apocalypse-induced misanthropic enviromental nervousness.What do i have to do to join this church.Do i make the check out to Al Gore or to someone in congress or senate.The end can't get here soon enough.I am a true man made global warming believer.Did not know the center of earth was millions of degrees hot until your minister Al Gore said it on the news.Scary stuff where is the offering plate.
29...

the top graph shows temp anomolies for the ENTIRE month of oct (averaged out)

the bottom graph you posted only shows temp anomolies for a ONE WEEK PERIOD

big difference in trying to compare 2 graphs, when one shows data for 30 days and the other for only 7.
how cold will se fl get to low in the upper 40 is that right
For those who are interested, the forecast I made for my area at 5:00PM EST last night.



I'm making another one at around the same time today.
The discussion from NOAA's page about SST values:

"The worldwide sea surface temperatures (SST) during October 2009 were warmer than average across all oceans, with the exception of cooler-than-average conditions across much of the near-Antarctic southern oceans, the Gulf of Alaska, and parts of northwestern Atlantic Ocean, and along the western coasts of Australia and South America. The global ocean temperature represented the fifth warmest October on record, with an anomaly of 0.50C (0.90F) above the 20th century average. El Nio persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during October 2009. Sea surface temperature anomalies were at least 1.0C (1.8F) above average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean."

Sounds closer to the SST anomaly maps than the plotted data looks....
Quoting atmoaggie:

What? Globally, SST values for a week from the middle of the month should be represented at least somewhat closely in the monthly analysis.

Here is the one from the next week.


How did NOAA get +2 and +3 C for most of the Atlantic!?!
It is not there!

Don't understand your point about air and water temps. Sure the passage of a cold front might have air temps well below water temps, but globally, averaged over an entire month, night and day, with respect to "normal", and given that we do not have historical or satellite air temp over the oceans, SST should match up.

I do see your point in the Atlantic. I was looking more at the Pacific, especially in light of El Nino.
am i right
The UK Meteorological Office has more fuel to the climate change debate on its official website.

New climate mitigation scenario highlights stark challenge ahead

Latest research has shown that emissions of CO2 will need to be reduced close to zero by the end of this century if a rise in the mean global temperature beyond 2 °C is to be avoided. A temperature rise of no more than 2 °C is widely acknowledged as the ‘safe’ level to avoid dangerous climate change.

read more here

I'm getting the popcorn...


But to tell the truth, something is definitely wrong with the weather here, as I pointed out in one of my comments on the previous blog. Almost every year since 2000 the UK has had flooding issues.
The current flooding here just gets worse and worse. More heavy rain announced for tomorrow in the North West, up to 100 mm (4 inches) in places which have received up to a foot of rain in the last 7 days.

Apart from 1,300 properties which sustained flood damage there are 1,800 bridges in the area which either collapsed or have sustained damage and need to be checked before they can be opened again for traffic. Some communities are practically cut off supply, supermarkets running out of goods, cash machines are not refilled so no money... there you see how much dependent we have become on access by roads. It'll take weeks to get the traffic situation back to normal.
Insurance companies face claims of an estimated £100m (approx. $166m)

After a short break after the heavy showers on Tuesday rain will probably continue towards the end of the week. I don't know how we are going to cope with that, it'll make matters worse.
Key points: Global temp readings - since record keeping began in 1880. How good are these "global" records in 1922? What were the scientific standards back then, if any? BTW, I don't think the first decent weather satellite went up until the 1960's...so, count me as a skeptic as to any precise date before then.

Also, as far as sea ice is concerned, the key phrase in the article is: since satellite measurements began in 1979. So what do we have before that, anecdotal evidence?

It doesn't matter anyway. The US Senate is not going to agree to any Global warming deal as long as unemployment is north of 10%. People in the US simply don't care, especially those of us living in fly-over country.

By the way, I am not against Dr. Masters. I enjoy reading his evaluations of the weather and especially hurricanes. I just disagree with his stance on global warming. Just because he is a respected and well published scientist does not necessarily make him in the right on this issue. I think nature is too big for man to make the kind of impact that is claimed. Natural forces, like the eruption of Mt Pinatubo or the amount of sunspots are what causes these changes.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704888404574550354125452242.html
Western Pacific is really active again. Another TCFA...

WTPN22 PGTW 231100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230951ZNOV2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 4.5N 107.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231030Z INDICATES A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 107.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.7N
107.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 107.2E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING NEAR A QUICKLY IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 230156Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH CENTER WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30-KNOT PERIPHERIAL WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST (ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE THROUGH THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA) AND 20-25 KNOTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM CENTER. FINALLY, A 230931Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS CONVERGING TOWARDS THE LLCC, ILLUSTRATING
THE IMPROVING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO
CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE IMPROVING NATURE OF THE
LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241100Z.





Once this becomes a Tropical Cyclone, That will make 3 cyclones in the Western Pacific simultaneously.
Does nobody really believe the Earth has cycles. The temperature doesn't just stay the same every year.
Over 100 icebergs drifting to N.Zealand: official


Link
Quoting Magicchaos:
Western Pacific is really active again. Another TCFA...

WTPN22 PGTW 231100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230951ZNOV2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 4.5N 107.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231030Z INDICATES A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 107.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.7N
107.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 107.2E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING NEAR A QUICKLY IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 230156Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH CENTER WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30-KNOT PERIPHERIAL WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST (ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE THROUGH THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA) AND 20-25 KNOTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM CENTER. FINALLY, A 230931Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS CONVERGING TOWARDS THE LLCC, ILLUSTRATING
THE IMPROVING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO
CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE IMPROVING NATURE OF THE
LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241100Z.





Once this becomes a Tropical Cyclone, That will make 3 cyclones in the Western Pacific simultaneously.

4.5*N? That is really far south!
Quoting mrnicktou:
Does nobody really believe the Earth has cycles. The temperature doesn't just stay the same every year.


Of course the earth has cycles - my main argument for AGW - why are we basing this so called global warming on data that we have since 1880. That is such a miniscule amount of time versus how long the planet has been around. Global warming is nothing but a media and politically driven phenomenon.
Quoting Magicchaos:
Western Pacific is really active again. Another TCFA...

WTPN22 PGTW 231100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230951ZNOV2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 4.5N 107.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231030Z INDICATES A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 107.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.7N
107.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 107.2E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING NEAR A QUICKLY IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 230156Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH CENTER WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30-KNOT PERIPHERIAL WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST (ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE THROUGH THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA) AND 20-25 KNOTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM CENTER. FINALLY, A 230931Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS CONVERGING TOWARDS THE LLCC, ILLUSTRATING
THE IMPROVING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO
CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE IMPROVING NATURE OF THE
LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241100Z.





Once this becomes a Tropical Cyclone, That will make 3 cyclones in the Western Pacific simultaneously.

Awfully far south to get a circ going.
Quoting taistelutipu:
The UK Meteorological Office has more fuel to the climate change debate on its official website.

New climate mitigation scenario highlights stark challenge ahead

Latest research has shown that emissions of CO2 will need to be reduced close to zero by the end of this century if a rise in the mean global temperature beyond 2 °C is to be avoided. A temperature rise of no more than 2 °C is widely acknowledged as the ‘safe’ level to avoid dangerous climate change.

read more here




It's the "American Way". Procrastinate until it's too late.
37.

I think your logic is flawed regarding anomalies matching up. Sea surface temperature is influenced by subsurface currents and a giant pool of near freezing water. Furthermore, sea surface temperatures take a long time to react to air temperatures alone.

An important factor not considered is wind speed. What happened to the local winds in a given area? Think about the surface temperature anomalies before and after the passage of a hurricane to demonstrate the importance of this factor.

Another factor that must be considered to really draw any conclusions is the vertical sea surface temperature profile. Did the thermocline depth change? How about the variation of temperature across the thermocline? What if the measured sea surface temperature has changed by .5 degrees, but the depth of the water has increased by hundreds of feet? That would indicate an anomalous storage of heat that, according to your logic, we should expect. It may or may not be there: we simply cannot tell from this data set.

I don't think that you can compare the two charts alone and make any conclusions at all. You have to look at the scientific interrelationship between air temperature and sea surface temperature, then factor in all of the other forces that influence the relationship to determine whether the sea surface temperature anomaly chart is consistent with the air temperature anomaly chart. I doubt anyone on this blog has the access or knowledge to make that comparison. If I am wrong, I would love to see the results.
Quoting Chucktown:


Of course the earth has cycles - my main argument for AGW - why are we basing this so called global warming on data that we have since 1880. That is such a miniscule amount of time versus how long the planet has been around. Global warming is nothing but a media and politically driven phenomenon.

I agree that we are making far too many huge leaps based upon incomplete data. That said... what if the projections are right? We do know we are taking more out of the world than we are putting in. Address that, and many of the AGW/GW/CC issues will become much more clear.
Quoting Chucktown:


Of course the earth has cycles - my main argument for AGW - why are we basing this so called global warming on data that we have since 1880. That is such a miniscule amount of time versus how long the planet has been around. Global warming is nothing but a media and politically driven phenomenon.


Exactly.
USGS


Glacier Monitoring Studies
Monitoring and Assessing Glacier Changes and Their Associated Hydrologic and Ecologic Effects in Glacier National Park



Purpose:

To systematically monitor changes in Glacier National Park’s namesake glaciers and to determine the causes of changes, assess their ecological and hydrological effects, and predict future changes and effects.
GPS data collection, Sperry Glacier, 2005, USGS Photo

Glacier National Park’s namesake glaciers have receded rapidly since the Park’s establishment in 1910, primarily due to long-term changes in regional and global climate. These changes include warming, particularly of daily minimum temperatures, and persistent droughts. This warming is ongoing and the loss of the Park’s glaciers continues, with the park’s glaciers predicted to disappear by 2030.
54:

The NOAA introduction:

"Temperature anomalies for October 2009 are shown on the dot maps below. The dot map on the left provides a spatial representation of anomalies calculated from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) dataset of land surface stations using a 1961-1990 base period. The dot map on the right is a product of a merged land surface and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly analysis developed by Smith et al. (2008). For the merged land surface and SST analysis, temperature anomalies with respect to the 1971-2000 average for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis."

I don't think they are considering all of the factors you are. Reads like the SST anomaly IS what we should be seeing.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=global&year=2009&month=10&submitted=Get Report

The warming continues regardless of the debate here,or elsewhere.

Invest in thought and common sense.

They both will serve one well.
Quoting Patrap:

The warming continues regardless of the debate here,or elsewhere.

Invest in thought and common sense.

They both will serve one well.


Yea not so fast
Quoting Squawk: Welcome to the winter version of blob watching. Models hinting at things too many days away to be taken seriously. Something to watch for so you are not surprised but, don't count on it either.

I keep an eye on those blobs. It can cause havoc on my commute. I live in Virginia and use the "beloved" I-95 to reach my workplace.
Anyone see the cover photo on Al Gore's new book? It's a full disc globe shot of our hemisphere.

They air-brushed out the icecap and added four hurricanes to the globe while keeping the US devoid of clouds. One hurricane off the baja, one in the central Atlantic, another right on the equator in the Epac and then one right off of Florida and its spinning the wrong way!!
Solid science.
Quoting Patrap:

The warming continues regardless of the debate here,or elsewhere.

Invest in thought and common sense.

They both will serve one well.


But is it suppose to rise due to cycles?
The earth is 4.5 billion yrs old and we have destroyed in 100 yrs?
58.

I misunderstood what the NOAA chart was representing. I though that it was satellite air temperature. I agree that their description does appear that it should be sea surface temperature anomaly.

My original post was regarding the complexity of comparing observed air temperature anomalies with observed sea surface temperature anomalies and drawing a conclusion from those two data sets without more analysis.

I still do not know enough to about the charting technique to know what range the dots represent. For example, it could be that the NOAA chart 1 degree dots represent 0-1 degree while the other chart that you posted has no anomaly from -.5 to .5 (as is clearly labeled). NOAA's technique could reserve the 0 dot for the transition point between positive and negative anomaly when it falls on the spot they draw the dot.

It is an interesting issue that I don't have time to look into since I do not work in that field.
Weather.com website is calling for a mix of rain to snow for Greensboro, NC by Wednesday of NEXT week. Anyone have any thoughts on this or links to forecast models showing the possibility of a Piedmont snow event?
68. P451
RAMSDIS has placed a floater over X-Ida

Link

69. P451
Quoting natrwalkn:
Weather.com website is calling for a mix of rain to snow for Greensboro, NC by Wednesday of NEXT week. Anyone have any thoughts on this or links to forecast models showing the possibility of a Piedmont snow event?


If the models pan out then the first week of December would probably bring snow events to inland areas from NC right into the North East US.

It's a wait and see scenario for now. It's too far into the future to tell. This current system in the area was slated to be a big nor'easter but a few days ago according to the models.

Quoting P451:
RAMSDIS has placed a floater over X-Ida

Link



Fact is, it doesn't look to have frontal characteristics, convection is deep and continuing to develop, it's alow, Hybrid at best. Why not name it? I gotta agree with Accuweather and Joe Bastardi, this should have kept it's name, even when it became a Nor'easter because media was not all over this. This is a very big debate, but I'm in for keeping the name until it's completely gone, not forget it after it looses it's tropical characteristics.
Friday's nor'easter looks to be a sizable one,lots of wind and rain for me.Good day for digesting all that Thursday food.
Wind shear has dropped amazingly to 10 knots over X-Ida... but because of the cooler waters, the NHC doesn't recognize this. I really don't know what to say about them anymore, rough year in predicting storms.
Something that may be small in the hurricane/typhoon/tornado sense, but if anyone here has ever visited the English Lake District, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8373937.stm will be news. More than 12 inches of rain - a 24 hour record for the UK - fell on waterlogged mountains. Only one person has died - a police officer who was stopping traffic going onto a bridge when it fell - but some thousands of people will be out of their homes and businesses for months. Because for the worst hit areas, the floods were the second within fourteen months, a number had found insurance prohibitive. The house where the poet Wordsworth was born is among those damaged.

http://www.cumbriafoundation.org/ if you feel moved to help. Thank you
Quoting Kittykatz:
Quoting Squawk: Welcome to the winter version of blob watching. Models hinting at things too many days away to be taken seriously. Something to watch for so you are not surprised but, don't count on it either.

I keep an eye on those blobs. It can cause havoc on my commute. I live in Virginia and use the "beloved" I-95 to reach my workplace.


ROFL -- no one would believe it who hasn't experienced it. Even pics, video, and traffic stats don't do it justice.
- 495 Beltway Brat
Quoting NEwxguy:
Friday's nor'easter looks to be a sizable one,lots of wind and rain for me.Good day for digesting all that Thursday food.

Et Tu, Brute?
Quoting reedzone:
Wind shear has dropped amazingly to 10 knots over X-Ida... but because of the cooler waters, the NHC doesn't recognize this. I really don't know what to say about them anymore, rough year in predicting storms.


They made the same mistake about Pre-Grace and a 92L earlier this year.
Quoting P451:


If the models pan out then the first week of December would probably bring snow events to inland areas from NC right into the North East US.

It's a wait and see scenario for now. It's too far into the future to tell. This current system in the area was slated to be a big nor'easter but a few days ago according to the models.



Thanks for the response. I know the 10 day forecasts are not very accurate, but at least it will be something interesting to watch and hope for!!
Its the same with winter forecasting as with tropical forecasting.The long range model forecaasting is always suspect,and has to be taken with a grain of salt,but definitely something to watch.
Ida,mistakes?..you guys need to get a reality check,that system in the Atlantic isnt tropical,..nor is it a threat to anything.

And the NHC performed well in all realms this season,..

What evidence do you have to produce a rant on the NHC ?

Im meeting with Avila,from the NHC here in NOLA in a few Hours ,and Ill be kind enough to ask him anything you want today

Or did I miss a Cat 5 or something?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Anyone see the cover photo on Al Gore's new book? It's a full disc globe shot of our hemisphere.

They air-brushed out the icecap and added four hurricanes to the globe while keeping the US devoid of clouds. One hurricane off the baja, one in the central Atlantic, another right on the equator in the Epac and then one right off of Florida and its spinning the wrong way!!
Solid science.

I thought it even worse that they depicted (presumably) sea level rise had completely erased all of the Caribbean Islands, Panama, and other rather high-elevation areas, but left low places like the Yucatan, Louisiana, Florida, etc. If Panama's peaks went underwater, everything east of the Rockies would be under.

Whatever they are depicting by having the places they chose to be underwater, it is completely goofy.

A complete fantasy.
Quoting Patrap:
Ida,mistakes?..you guys need to get a reality check,that system in the Atlantic isnt tropical,..nor is it a threat to anything.

And the NHC performed well in all realms this season,..

What evidence do you have to produce a rant on the NHC ?

Im meeting with Avilia,from the NHC here in NOLA in a few Hours ,and Ill be kind enough to ask him anything you want today

Or did I miss a Cat 5 or something?


Thank you Patrap. Someone had to say it.

> The Center for International Policy Takes Pleasure in Inviting You to
>
> A Conference on U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Defending Against Hurricanes
>
> To be held November 23, 2009, in New Orleans at River City Plaza, next to
Mardi Gras World
>
> 1380 Port of New Orleans Place
>
>
>
> 2 p.m. – Introduction by Wayne S. Smith of the Center for International Policy
>
>
>
> 2:15 – 2:45 p.m. – Vital U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Tracking Hurricanes and
Warning of their Approach. Jose Rubiera, of the Cuban Meteorological Center
(invited) and Lixion Avila of the U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami. Chaired by
Jay Higginbotham, Archivist Emeritus of Mobile
>
>
>
> 2:45 – 4:00 p.m. - U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in the Face of Hurricanes.
Dagoberto Rodriguez Barrera, Cuban Vice Minister of Foreign Relations
(invited); Lt.General (Ret) Russel Honore, Former Commander of Joint Task Force
Katrina; Lt. Col (Ret) Jerry Sneed, Director of Emergency Preparedness of
Orleans Parish; Ivor van Heerden, Founder of the Louisiana State University
Hurricane Center; Robert Turner, Director of the Southeast Louisiana Flood
Protection Authority. Chaired by Wayne Smith, Center for International Policy.
>
>
>
> 4:00 – 4:30 p.m. – The Growing Focus on Disaster Medicine and Disaster
Management in Both the U.S. and Cuba. Dr. Guillermo Mesa Ridel, Director, Latin
American Center for Disaster Medicine (invited); Dr. Alex Isakov, Founding
Director of the Emory University Office of Critical Event Preparedness and
Response; Lt. Gen Russel Honore, Board Member of LSU’s Stephenson Disaster
Management Institute; Chaired by Randy Poindexter, Executive Director of
International Cuba Society
>
>
>
> 4:30 – 4:45 p.m. – President Obama’s Prerogative, Despite the Embargo, to
Authorize U.S. Companies to Sell Cuba Reconstruction Materials and Equipment.
Robert L. Muse, Attorney, Muse and Associates
>
>
>
> 4:45 – 5:00 p.m. – Shared Ecosystems: Opportunities for Increasing
Environmental Cooperation and Collaboration between Cuba and the United States.
Dan Whittle, Senior Attorney with the Environmental Defense Fund.
>
>
>
> 5:00 – 6:00 p.m. – Open Discussion. Participants from the various delegations
to Cuba, and other interested parties, are invited to comment and express
opinions as to new initiatives and directions and how we could better organize
to advance our objectives. Mr. Ky Luu, the Director of the Tulane University
Disaster Resilience Leadership Academy, will have the first comment.
>
>
>
> 6:00 – 7:30 p.m. - Reception with cash bar in the Grand Oaks Mansion
Quoting shred3590:
I still do not know enough to about the charting technique to know what range the dots represent. For example, it could be that the NOAA chart 1 degree dots represent 0-1 degree while the other chart that you posted has no anomaly from -.5 to .5 (as is clearly labeled). NOAA's technique could reserve the 0 dot for the transition point between positive and negative anomaly when it falls on the spot they draw the dot.


I understand your point, here. But it is undeniable that they are depicting 2 and 3 degree C positive anomalies for large areas of the Atlantic. And it is rather clear in the SST anomaly plot that a small area of +2 C is possible, mostly +1 or less, and no way a +3 could be construed...
Quoting natrwalkn:
Weather.com website is calling for a mix of rain to snow for Greensboro, NC by Wednesday of NEXT week. Anyone have any thoughts on this or links to forecast models showing the possibility of a Piedmont snow event?


This could be a blockbuster storm my friend. I believe western North Carolina might get a good snow from this. I think the piedmont to coast should be all rain.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_192.shtml
Quoting Patrap:
Ida,mistakes?..you guys need to get a reality check,that system in the Atlantic isnt tropical,..nor is it a threat to anything.

And the NHC performed well in all realms this season,..

What evidence do you have to produce a rant on the NHC ?

Im meeting with Avila,from the NHC here in NOLA in a few Hours ,and Ill be kind enough to ask him anything you want today

Or did I miss a Cat 5 or something?
hey pat cool Avila is one of my fav's at NHC for forcasters say hello for me pat
Quoting Patrap:
Ida,mistakes?..you guys need to get a reality check,that system in the Atlantic isnt tropical,..nor is it a threat to anything.

And the NHC performed well in all realms this season,..

What evidence do you have to produce a rant on the NHC ?

Im meeting with Avila,from the NHC here in NOLA in a few Hours ,and Ill be kind enough to ask him anything you want today

Or did I miss a Cat 5 or something?


I didn't say it was tropical, just said it was Hybrid. I was just stating my opinion on why it should have stayed named until the circulation fell apart. I'm with Accuweather on that. they kept calling it Ida even when it was a Noreaster. It did more damage there then it did when it was named, thus they should have kept the name for more media hype.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


ROFL -- no one would believe it who hasn't experienced it. Even pics, video, and traffic stats don't do it justice.
- 495 Beltway Brat


Awake, some years back my folks came down from Michigan to visit and had a 6th floor view of the Springfield Interchange. They asked me what happened to cause all that traffic. although it wasn't raining or snowing, I had to explain it was just the usual rush hour and if there was any sort of bad weather (in fact or in the forecast), then it would be worse. Having grown up in Michigan, not too much crazy weather flips me out. Hurricane Isabel did bug me--those moaning winds are creepy.
91. Boca
Operative words: ON RECORD.

The globe recorded its sixth warmest October since record keeping began in 1880 according
to Dr. M's attention grabbing headline.

I know all blogs need "headlines" but please folks let's keep this in perspective.

Less than 200 years vs billions?

Where is the data on the antarctic? And why do we only track the surface area? Isn't is the volume of ice that matters?

And has ANYONE proven with a solid experiment that CO2 actually raises temperatures? The earth is an isolated ball floating in a vacuum. The whole concept of a greenhouse effect is complete bull because a greenhouse works by blocking convective cooling. There is no convection with a vaccum!!! Three things and three things along will determine the rate of heating or cooling of the planet:

1. The radiation level of the sun
2. The emissivity of the planet
3. The rate of conversion of stored energy to heat

The first item above has the largest impact, by far. The second item can be influenced by many things. The main impact on emissivity is cloud coverage which increases if the planet temperature rises. Basically, that means we have a nice closed loop control system through which the planet regulates its own temperature. Particulate count can increase formation of water droplets and cloud coverage. That's why volcanic eruptions have caused snow in the summer. There is a theory that cosmic radiation can also increase droplet formation. The theory is that we will get more cloud coverage and cool when our solar system migrates to the surfaces of our galaxy's disc thus exposing us to more cosmic radiation.

Can CO2 increase emissivity? Maybe but it hasn't been proven yet. CO2 has unique absorption bands. It also has unique emission bands. But so does oxygen. Presumably, as the partial pressure of CO2 increases sue to combustion of fossile fuels, the partial pressure of O2 decreases. So, we will indeed alter the emissivity of the planet in very specific bands of the radiation spectrum. In some bands it will increase and in some bands it will decrease. Then the question is, how much of an impact will these changes have on global temperature. That is a very difficult thing to calculate. But then we have to ask, what will the impact be from this change in temperature. We can't figure out what Ida will do. Am I to believe people really know what a 2C increase in global temperature will do? And what will the reaction of the planet be? Will cloud coverage change and cool us back down. An increase in volcanic activity?
It is to be expected that M/A/M will be warmer in Arkansas. They are known to have Hot Springs.
Just spoke to Floodman...he has a nice little buzz goin'...seems OK...and sends his regards...
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Anyone see the cover photo on Al Gore's new book? It's a full disc globe shot of our hemisphere.

They air-brushed out the icecap and added four hurricanes to the globe while keeping the US devoid of clouds. One hurricane off the baja, one in the central Atlantic, another right on the equator in the Epac and then one right off of Florida and its spinning the wrong way!!
Solid science.


And this is the young readers edition.

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51SM9u3vSmL._SS500_.jpg
Quoting lawntonlookers:


And this is the young readers edition.

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51SM9u3vSmL._SS500_.jpg


I'm sure kids are going to be asking for this as there number one christmas item. AAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH NOOOOOOOOOOO
Sad news, looks like QuikSCAT is now dead:

DATE/TIME(UTC) MESSAGE ISSUED*: 23 NOVEMBER 2009/1700 UTC
*
SATELLITE(S) INVOLVED*: QUIKSCAT*

PRODUCT(S) INVOLVED/AFFECTED*: ALL QUIKSCAT PRODUCTS*

DETAILS:* SEVERAL HOURS AGO, SHORTLY PAST 7:00Z TODAY, TELEMETRY RECEIVED FROM QUIKSCAT INDICATES THAT THE ANTENNA ROTATION RATE HAS DROPPED TO ZERO AND REMAINS AT ZERO. THE MOTOR REMAINS POWERED. THE SYSTEM CAN BE OPERATED SAFELY IN THIS STATE FOR AN INDEFINITE PERIOD. THE QUIKSCAT OPERATIONS TEAM WILL BE MEETING LATER THIS MORNING, BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THIS IS PROBABLY THE END OF THE NOMINAL MISSION.

Kudos to all the engineers, scientists, and staff that helped launch and keep this valuable satellite alive for so long!

Jeff Masters
Quoting Patrap:
Ida,mistakes?..you guys need to get a reality check,that system in the Atlantic isnt tropical,..nor is it a threat to anything.

And the NHC performed well in all realms this season,..

What evidence do you have to produce a rant on the NHC ?

Im meeting with Avila,from the NHC here in NOLA in a few Hours ,and Ill be kind enough to ask him anything you want today

Or did I miss a Cat 5 or something?


Meeting with Avila, OOOOOOOOOOOOO AAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH, man I wish I was you. Take a picture after you meet him, I bet youll have a glow around you in the picture, almost like a aura. LOL
Amazingly, it's so much hotter in those places that no longer have thermometers.
Quoting lawntonlookers:


And this is the young readers edition.


Umm... if the waters on earth have risen, then why hasn't the Hudson Bay gotten larger and the Great Lakes--two of which are missing in the rendering. I guess the orange on the west coast is California on fire. I'm also wondering what the anomaly is off the Maine coast--Atlantis rising?
I wonder if Dr Master's finds this cover funny in a juvenile/middle school kind of way? I mean, since us rubes don't know what we are talking about.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Anyone see the cover photo on Al Gore's new book? It's a full disc globe shot of our hemisphere.

They air-brushed out the icecap and added four hurricanes to the globe while keeping the US devoid of clouds. One hurricane off the baja, one in the central Atlantic, another right on the equator in the Epac and then one right off of Florida and its spinning the wrong way!!
Solid science.
Quoting atmoaggie:


I understand your point, here. But it is undeniable that they are depicting 2 and 3 degree C positive anomalies for large areas of the Atlantic. And it is rather clear in the SST anomaly plot that a small area of +2 C is possible, mostly +1 or less, and no way a +3 could be construed...


I agree that they are clearly depicting +2, but cannot tell about +3.

It seems unlikely that they would use pure air temps over land and pure H2O temps over the oceans as the two really are not comparable directly. if they are, then there should be a shelf at the continental boundaries. There probably is some processing of the data to make it more meaningful. I also think that the coastal regions are problematic because air temperatures are so much more variable than ocean temperatures.

I wish I had the time to understand what they are really doing to create the chart.
Link Check this web site for all those who are tired of sending our money to the middle east, power companies, oil companies. MIT discovery about to change the way man harnesses solar energy, by a process that nearly mimics what a plant does. Allowing people to store energy for times of no sun plus will be able to load up your own car at night just from your roof top. Wonder if the big boys can stop this.Oh and you cannot get any greener.
Sorry to here about Quickscat.
Quoting JeffMasters:
Sad news, looks like QuikSCAT is now dead:

DATE/TIME(UTC) MESSAGE ISSUED*: 23 NOVEMBER 2009/1700 UTC
*
SATELLITE(S) INVOLVED*: QUIKSCAT*

PRODUCT(S) INVOLVED/AFFECTED*: ALL QUIKSCAT PRODUCTS*

DETAILS:* SEVERAL HOURS AGO, SHORTLY PAST 7:00Z TODAY, TELEMETRY RECEIVED FROM QUIKSCAT INDICATES THAT THE ANTENNA ROTATION RATE HAS DROPPED TO ZERO AND REMAINS AT ZERO. THE MOTOR REMAINS POWERED. THE SYSTEM CAN BE OPERATED SAFELY IN THIS STATE FOR AN INDEFINITE PERIOD. THE QUIKSCAT OPERATIONS TEAM WILL BE MEETING LATER THIS MORNING, BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THIS IS PROBABLY THE END OF THE NOMINAL MISSION.

Kudos to all the engineers, scientists, and staff that helped launch and keep this valuable satellite alive for so long!

Jeff Masters

Guess that data message at 00 Z was the last such message...

Bye, bye QuikScat. Your valuable data will be missed.
Quoting bjrabbit:
I wonder if Dr Master's finds this cover funny in a juvenile/middle school kind of way? I mean, since us rubes don't know what we are talking about.



It would have been nice if all the hurricanes were spinning counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere on the cover of Al Gore's book! That's some bad science Mr. Gore is putting in front of kids.

Jeff Masters
atmoaggie:

Another issue is whether they are correcting for known oceanic oscillations such as discussed in this link regarding the N. Pacific. (I live much closer to Orca than you.)

Link
109. N3EG
In space, no one can hear your bearings squeak.

Now, let's hope Quikscat gets replaced...
Quoting JeffMasters:


It would have been nice if all the hurricanes were spinning counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere on the cover of Al Gore's book! That's some bad science Mr. Gore is putting in front of kids.

Jeff Masters


Dr. Masters i have a question. You always post graphs about the declining sea ice, but i never see a graph of rising antarctic ice, now to me as a conscious observer it seems biased to show one but not the other. Is there a reason you do that?
Quoting JeffMasters:


It would have been nice if all the hurricanes were spinning counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere on the cover of Al Gore's book! That's some bad science Mr. Gore is putting in front of kids.

Jeff Masters


All that money spent of publishing the book and he cant even make the cover look believable. Truly Sad.
Quoting JeffMasters:


It would have been nice if all the hurricanes were spinning counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere on the cover of Al Gore's book! That's some bad science Mr. Gore is putting in front of kids.

Jeff Masters
sad doc anything to make a buck looks like maybe mister gore is tryin to tell us that he has it all backwards from the look of the cover sure seems that way lol
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Dr. Masters i have a question. You always post graphs about the declining sea ice, but i never see a graph of rising antarctic ice, now to me as a conscious observer it seems biased to show one but not the other. Is there a reason you do that?

I can't speak for Dr. Masters, but bear in mind that the Arctic is more vulnerable to melting due to its proximity to land and limited stability current-wise. (Antartica is anchored to a continent and has a fairly consistent current surrounding it. The same cannot be said for the Arctic.)

Also, Antartica is not immune to melting, as there have been several ice shelves that have broken up lately. It just has a greater resistance. Think of the arctic as the "canary in a coal mine" due to its vulnerability.
Quoting StormChaser81:


All that money spent of publishing the book and he cant even make the cover look believable. Truly Sad.


That's because it doesn't matter to them which way a hurricane spins in the northern hemisphere

Remember, they are perpetrating a hoax, so real science just gets in the way.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FIVE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BONGANI (05-20092010)
22:00 PM Réunion November 23 2009
=========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Bongani (998 hPa) located at 9.3S 53.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 7 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5

Gale-Force Winds
==================
Near the center extending up to 40 NM from the center in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale-Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM from the center in the northern quadrant and up to 60 NM from the center within the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 10.1S 52.0E - 40 kts (Tempéte Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 10.3S 51.1E - 45 kts (Tempéte Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 10.4S 49.1E - 60 kts (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
72 HRS: 11.6S 46.2E - 80 kts (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
========================
The system remains of small size, and seems under going a temporary southeasterly constraint, (Last SSMSI 1413z shows the center south east of the edge of the convection), but last satellite infrared imagery shows building convection near the center.

BONGANI is currently located on the northwestern edge of a mid level ridge and a weakness within this ridge can be seen along 50E. For the next 12 hours, this weakness should allow a slower southwestward track as the STR rebuilt tuesday night, system should accelerate a little bit west southwestward

All environmental factors continue to look favorable for intensification according to CIMSS data (MIMIC-TPW), the dry air present to the southwest of the system should remain te limiting factor for intensification during the next hours. Up to 36-48 hours, intensification is expectedto go on, with a building poleward outflow.. due to an approaching subtropical jet in the south.

All interest in the Fahquar Archipelago, northern tip of Madagascar, Comoros Archipelago, and Mayotte Island should still closely monitor the progress of this system
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "URDUJA" has accelerated and is heading towards Visayas.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
===============================
At 11:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Urduja located at 10.2ºN 126.0ºE or 70 kms east northeast of Surigao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Warning Signal #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
==============
1.Masbate

Visayas Region
-------------
1.Eastern Samar
2.Western Samar
3.Biliran
4.Leyte Provinces
5.Cebu
6.Camotes Island
7.Bohol
8.Negros Provinces
9.Aklan
10.Capiz
11.Antique
12.Iloilo
13.Guimaras

Mindanao Region
-------------
1.Camiguin
2.Agusan del Norte
3.Surigao del Norte
4.Surigao del Sur
5.Dinagat
6.Siargao Island

Additional Information
========================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes in areas under PSWS # 1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL STORM NIDA (T0922)
3:00 AM JST November 24 2009
===========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Nida (998 hPa) located at 9.0N 146.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knot with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-northwest at 7 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in northern quadrant
70 NM from the center in southern quardrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 09.7N 143.0E - 45 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 11.9N 140.9E - 55 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 14.6N 139.1E - 60 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Quoting jeffs713:

I can't speak for Dr. Masters, but bear in mind that the Arctic is more vulnerable to melting due to its proximity to land and limited stability current-wise. (Antartica is anchored to a continent and has a fairly consistent current surrounding it. The same cannot be said for the Arctic.)

Also, Antartica is not immune to melting, as there have been several ice shelves that have broken up lately. It just has a greater resistance. Think of the arctic as the "canary in a coal mine" due to its vulnerability.


i realize that, but he can still show both sides, and even though ice shelves are breaking off, more ice is forming as the field continues to grow
For anyone who might be interested in post Ida/NorEaster recovery units and actions...I continue to be quite impressed with Virginia Emergency Management's Situation Reports (see link for Situation Report #9, 11-23-09.)
VASitRep't 11-23-09
Quoting StormChaser81:


All that money spent of publishing the book and he cant even make the cover look believable. Truly Sad.


Al Gore is an idiot. He knows nothing about weather and he writes a book?
121. StormW -- thanks, I've been looking forward to your forecast today.
If I looked this over correctly (always please feel free to correct me, I have little pride in this area) -- the DelMarVa will escape high winds, but might be in for a precip event, possibly of the frozen variety (whether it be freezing rain, sleet, or snow is a ?)
Any guesses how much? Don't mean to be geocentric, but you know the coastline has already been walloped.
120. Will the increasing mass of the ice in Antarctica vs. the decreasing mass in the Arctic have any effect on the rotation/stability of the Earth?

Interesting to note: That graph looks a lot like one I saw in a college sociology class. The value of the American dollar (blue line) vs the average amount of income per American(Red Line)
From what I understand about publishing, it is doubtful Gore had much input as to the cover. It is my understanding that an author is lucky to chose the title much less the artwork on a cover. That's MARKETING and PRINTING Heaven help the author who crosses swords with them.

Some folks and their. Obsession with Gore amuse me. He may be many things but he's only a man, not evil incarnate. If he were so damn powerful you can better bet some schmuck with a desk jammed in the corner wouldn't get to muck up the cover of his book.
Quoting JeffMasters:


It would have been nice if all the hurricanes were spinning counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere on the cover of Al Gore's book! That's some bad science Mr. Gore is putting in front of kids.

Jeff Masters
Some people call it Science,I call it B.S.! JMO.
OUCH! And true. Geez-o-Pete, I'm in agreement with a libertarian...

In the trenches on climate change, hostility among foes
Stolen e-mails reveal venomous feelings toward skeptics

By Juliet Eilperin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, November 22, 2009

Link

Christopher Horner, a senior fellow at the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute who has questioned whether climate change is human-caused, blogged that the e-mails have "the makings of a very big" scandal. "Imagine this sort of news coming in the field of AIDS research," he added.

Quoting StormW:


I'll have a further look at specifics tomorrow, however, the wind will be coming from the land masses, and out to the ocean.

Thank you, will be looking forward to your post.
26W Nida

127...YES!...In fairness...the 'bad science'- in this case - is being put forth by the cover illustrator...
Awake...see my blog for my review on "2012".....
The stars on Mr. Gore's book don't look like real stars. That's bad science too.

Seriously, it's just a book cover. Children's books usually have impressionist/abstract covers. The stars are a perfect example - they're not meant to be a realistic portray of a star, rather they give the impression of a star.

I think Mr. Gore has done plenty to ruin his credibility. This book isn't even needed to further the argument. Like kicking a dead horse.
Damn Global Warming, killed QuickScat!
Wow,all the blogs disappeared from the blog list,Global Warming is hitting everywhere.
Quoting NRAamy:
Awake...see my blog for my review on "2012".....

Thanks, phew, to the point and short, and you saved me some bucks!
Quoting MILLERTIME1:
Damn Global Warming, killed QuickScat!

LOL.
Quoting JeffMasters:


It would have been nice if all the hurricanes were spinning counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere on the cover of Al Gore's book! That's some bad science Mr. Gore is putting in front of kids.

Jeff Masters


Is it just the COVER that's the "bad" science, or the whole book?

So many people are reviewing the cover. Has anyone read it yet? Or if it shows up on your kids reading list (and it will, guaranteed), will you allow your child to read it - and discuss where it's wrong?

Real science allows a discussion, right?
Global warming killed the video star.
it appears to have killed the blog as well...
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "URDUJA" is now moving closer to Leyte.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
===============================
At 5:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Urduja located at 10.4ºN 125.3ºE or in the vicinity of Dinagat has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Warning Signal #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
==============
1.Masbate
2.Romblon

Visayas Region
-------------
1.Eastern Samar
2.Western Samar
3.Biliran
4.Leyte Provinces
5.Cebu
6.Camotes Island
7.Bohol
8.Negros Provinces
9.Aklan
10.Capiz
11.Antique
12.Iloilo
13.Guimaras

Mindanao Region
-------------
1.Camiguin
2.Agusan del Norte
3.Surigao del Norte
4.Surigao del Sur
5.Dinagat
6.Siargao Island

Additional Information
========================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes in areas under PSWS # 1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
144. P451
Looks like X'Ida'Easter is finally in it's death throws...getting stretched out pretty good this evening. Will it finally get torn apart and absorbed?

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1200z 23NOV)
=============================================
An area of convection (95B) located at 4.9N 91.6E or 215 NM west of the northern tip of Sumatra. Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates cyclonic turning of deep convection over a developing low level circulation center. A 0336z ASCAT pass reveals 20-25 knot winds wrapping into the sytsem center from the southeast quadrant. Environmental analysis indicates the system is located equatorward of the subtropical ridge axis in an area of low to moderate vertical wind shear and has limited outflow aloft

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1009 MB. Due to increased convective consolidation, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.

Quoting P451:
Looks like X'Ida'Easter is finally in it's death throws...getting stretched out pretty good this evening. Will it finally get torn apart and absorbed?



Nope, Reed thinks it should be named. IDA know what to call it though.
SQUAWK....that was bad...go sit in the corner and think about what you said...
IDA think that name was used already
Quoting NRAamy:
SQUAWK....that was bad...go sit in the corner and think about what you said...


Damn.

Secretary of defense got me already.
QuickScat finally died?
How are we going to survive next year on here!!

'ATHOUGH THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, THERE IS INCONCLUSIVE DATA TO PROVE THERE IS A FULLY CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION DUE TO THE LACK OF THE QUICKSCAT SATELLITE, SO ADVISORIES ARE BEING HELD OFF AT THIS TIME.'

The blog will go nuts if we see the above text from the NHC. If it was a perfect world, another QuickScat would be shot up on a Delta IV medium out of Cape Canaveral tomorrow and would be expected to last to 2020.
151. P451
If there is to be a replacement Quickscat please let there be one GEOSTATIONARY satellite for the Atlantic basin?
Looks like the NHC director who was fired 2 years ago over QuikScat was right!
153. P451
Quoting SQUAWK:


Nope, Reed thinks it should be named. IDA know what to call it though.


Yeah. It looked kind of nice early this AM but there's no reason for it to be named in that state. Especially the current (apparently) worsening state.

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
IDA think that name was used already


Heh.

Well, there's an Nida in the WPac. Maybe she teleported. :)




Evening all. Just looking in after a hectic couple of weeks. Amazing to see the blog still on the first page after 1/2 day of posting.... lol.....

Looks like the Indian Ocean is going to be busy early and often this year. Isn't that the 3rd alert in the Sumatra area since September?
you know i was so excited when al gore first started really pushing the "global warming" issue, but now it has just become another way for him to get richer and not care that the real truth is not there. mainstream media has not really gotten a hold of it yet, i saw one article on examiner.com. so i emailed that article to bbc, fox and cnn. don't know if it will do any good.

once again everyone have a great holiday!
This is a short work week in the US because of Thanksgiving,right?

So r we having typical or atypical Thanksgiving weather?
Quoting WaterWitch11:
you know i was so excited when al gore first started really pushing the "global warming" issue, but now it has just become another way for him to get richer and not care that the real truth is not there. mainstream media has not really gotten a hold of it yet, i saw one article on examiner.com. so i emailed that article to bbc, fox and cnn. don't know if it will do any good.

once again everyone have a great holiday!


ROFL -- WaterWitch, the Baltimore Examiner IS main stream media here!
Is this payback for the crack I made about being driven to watch C-Span in California for any "real" news? Ya' got me, intentional or not, lol again.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Looks like the NHC director who was fired 2 years ago over QuikScat was right!


that man stood up for what he believed and risked his job and lost.
gotta admire him!
Quoting BahaHurican:
This is a short work week in the US because of Thanksgiving,right?

So r we having typical or atypical Thanksgiving weather?

Yes, and Yes, at least here.
It's rainy and getting colder. Gloomy. Had to force the terrible terrier to take his walk (like I wanted to, anyway). I hate November. Thanksgiving is the only good thing about it.

Where's Pottery? I need a fix of the Diary Installment.

Pottery -- it's chicken nuggets and tater tots tonight. We're going downhill fast, here, and don't even have small kids to blame this low-rent cuisine on. Worse yet, we LIKE them.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


ROFL -- WaterWitch, the Baltimore Examiner IS main stream media here!
Is this payback for the crack I made about being driven to watch C-Span in California for any "real" news? Ya' got me, intentional or not, lol again.


alright mama, i had to google what rofl meant! examiner is main stream here too it's one of our biggest papers. i'm always talking about the "big boys". cnn, fox, msnbc and etc. maybe i should stop stating mainstream! just say who doesn't have it!
160. I hear ya'. I didn't know you could google ROFL. Try ROFLMAO, if you want to, but no need to post what you get. WU would get mad at me for getting you banned, and would ban me :)
Wow, Quickscat is dead? That reminds me of all the celebrities and people we know who have died this year. And at this rate, there will be no October Arctic sea ice by 2045, by which time I predict the Earth would have warmed by 1.6C (2.9F) from today's levels, or 2.4C (4.3F) from pre-industrial levels, and by then I also estimate that 25% of all plant and animal species alive today will be extinct.
Pass the Prozac, please.
164. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Global warming killed the video star.


Killed this blog.

Quoting NRAamy:
it appears to have killed the blog as well...


Thankfully I had to work all day and missed it.

***back to lurk mode***
Diary Nov. 23, pm.
Spend day in city. Why do people live in cities? Town in pandemonium due to Heads of Commonwealth Meeting here this week. 53 Heads of Commonwealth and several other Presidents (Brazil, Denmark, Spain, France, Obama rumoured), Paint manufactures happy. Flag makers too. ThanksGiving here every day! Tonight menu includes red-fish filet (from last catch) in oven with chopped tomato, spring onions and olive oil, a baked potato, some stringbeans&carrots. Very nutritious. Beverages from the endless bottle. 1" Rain today. Still drizzzzzling.....
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
160. I hear ya'. I didn't know you could google ROFL. Try ROFLMAO, if you want to, but no need to post what you get. WU would get mad at me for getting you banned, and would ban me :)


i figured it out without having to look it up!

also at #162:

i thought i saw a recent article stating the arctic would be ice free by 2030? was it on here? i can't remember!
As for global warming and mainstream media, the media in the past several years has often had to create an artificial supposed sense of neutrality by injecting articles from skeptical columnists to balance the more mainstream scientific point of view that global warming is real and anthropogenic (human-caused). However, more recently, the journalists have discovered that the skeptical columnists were wrong all a long, and that the overwelming majority of scientists agree with the mainstream view. Therefore most papers are now reporting news that is more suggestive of AGW climate change.
HUH! QScat is dead. Long live the dream...
Quoting WaterWitch11:


that man stood up for what he believed and risked his job and lost.
gotta admire him!


He wasnt a good fit in other ways for that particular;lar job perhaps, but he was right about quickscat
170. DDR
Hi pottery,long time no see.We're having very dry november,i got a few drizzles today as well.Rain showers have increased in the past couple hours.
Quoting WaterWitch11:


i figured it out without having to look it up!

also at #162:

i thought i saw a recent article stating the arctic would be ice free by 2030? was it on here? i can't remember!

Yes, but remember this is October sea ice, and the low point of sea ice in the Arctic is usually in September. However, there was one such study that indicated that the Arctic may be ice-free in summer for the first time in 2013!
we are finally getting some rain here. been pouring for a good 45min straight, with alot of lightning. it doesnt seem to want to move much either.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=out&num=6&delay=15&scale=0.250&noclutter=0& ID=TBW&type=N0R&lat=26.61563873&lon=-81.61621857&label=Lehigh Acres, FL&showstorms=0&map.x=377&map.y=30¢erx=46¢ery=-398&lightning=0&smooth0&showlabels=1&rainsnow =0
Hi DDR. We got an inch today, and an inch over the w/e. NICE.
On Friday, before it rained, I checked my measurment for Nov.
10 yr average Nov 12.5"
This Nov to Friday 3/4"
Add 2" to that, and we are real low.
Previous lowest 2004, 5.5"

Back later.
hmmm, it didnt seem to want to post the radar link to my location.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Wow, Quickscat is dead? That reminds me of all the celebrities and people we know who have died this year. And at this rate, there will be no October Arctic sea ice by 2045, by which time I predict the Earth would have warmed by 1.6C (2.9F) from today's levels, or 2.4C (4.3F) from pre-industrial levels, and by then I also estimate that 25% of all plant and animal species alive today will be extinct.

Hmmm, my prediction isn't quite as aggrressive as yours. I think the earth will have warmed 0.7025034 C over today's levels by then...

I'll wager we differ as to why...
176. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Hi DDR. We got an inch today, and an inch over the w/e. NICE.
On Friday, before it rained, I checked my measurment for Nov.
10 yr average Nov 12.5"
This Nov to Friday 3/4"
Add 2" to that, and we are real low.
Previous lowest 2004, 5.5"

Back later.
Blame it on el nino and a very inactive itcz
Dear Pottery's Diary,
I cannot let my husband read you, ever. He would leave me for Pottery's cooking, and camp out far away from city. Metro traffic has driven him mad. There may be a ray of light, though, because he thinks he doesn't like fish. He may be under that illusion because many in his family are vegetarians; and so he craves red meat.

Yes, WaterWitch, 2030 is correct.
Hey Pottery can we get that diary update everyday. We can call it as the pottery turns. I see as usual no one commented on my posted link 104. Still say its worth the effort to read.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Yes, but remember this is October sea ice, and the low point of sea ice in the Arctic is usually in September. However, there was one such study that indicated that the Arctic may be ice-free in summer for the first time in 2013!

Wait. The Arctic could be ice free in 2008, too. Or in 4 years. Or 21 years. Or whatever is scary right now. Or never.

2008: "There is this thin first-year ice even at the North Pole at the moment," says Serreze. "This raises the spectre – the possibility that you could become ice free at the North Pole this year."
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=4728737&page=1

Serreze is the director of the US NASA/NOAA sponsored National Snow and Ice Data Center. I would think he knows. So it was last year. Right?
Quoting P451:
RAMSDIS has placed a floater over X-Ida

Link



All i can say is
0______________________________________o

In other news, GFS still calls for snow in the northeast ~29th ish. Then the next system gets snow to as far south as houston and dallas!
Quoting P451:
Looks like X'Ida'Easter is finally in it's death throws...getting stretched out pretty good this evening. Will it finally get torn apart and absorbed?



Quikscat is down or something, but AScatc confirms a near closed or closed surface low! I'm amazed this is not even a yellow circle. Hello, NHC, its still officially atlantic hurricane season! Drop your beer and get back to work.


doubt it will be absorbed by this front but it is headed to deathly cold water. But come on, no invest, no yellow circle even? If something is warm core, outflow on all sides, and has a LLC I think that warrents a yellow circle.
You are safe, Awake. I am NOT cooking for guys. You are stuck with him LOL
Hey y'all, the "experts" can't even accurately predict a rainy day three days in advance, let alone the existence OR the cause of climate change.
Save your money, you'll need it if any of this hullabaloo at Copenhagen sees the light of day.
I hate to say to many of the US residents on this board, but most of the rest of the world is no longer arguing about whether AGW exists; Copenhagen is a lot more about what to do about it. Many world areas are experiencing serious climate shift, and people dwelling in these areas feel certain that human activities are at best exacerbating the effects, if not in fact serving as a major cause.

Example: the Dust Bowl phenomenon of the 1930s was not CAUSED by man, but man's activities certainly contributed to the effects.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SIX
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BONGANI (05-20092010)
4:00 AM Réunion November 24 2009
=========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Bongani (999 hPa) located at 9.2S 52.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 9 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5

Gale-Force Winds
==================
Near the center extending up to 40 NM from the center in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale-Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM from the center in the northwestern quadrant and up to 60 NM from the center within the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 09.4S 51.2E - 35 kts (Tempéte Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 09.5S 50.4E - 40 kts (Tempéte Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 10.2S 48.0E - 50 kts (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
72 HRS: 11.6S 44.6E - 70 kts (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
========================
The system remains of a small size and seems under going a temporarly southeasterly constraint. According to CIMSS data (MIMIC-TPW) the dry air present to the southwest of the system seems to have interfer with with circulation of the system. These factors seem to limitate temporary intensification rate.

As the STR rebuilt tuesday night, BONGANI should accelerate a little bit west southwestward.

All environmental factors are becoming favorable for intensification. Up to 36-48 HRS, intensification is expected to go on, with a building poleward outflow. Due to an approaching subtropical jet in the south.

ALL INTEREST IN THE FAHQUAR ARCHIPELAGO, NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE ISLAND SHOULD STILL CLOSELY MONITORED
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
huh Quikscat is now gone??

Additional Information from Pre-Bongani advisory
================================================
Quikscat Date of the last night shows clearly an improving low level circulation center due to the development of deep convection over the center during the night, but pression remains high as environmental pression remains high to. The system is expected to develop progressively due to a favorable environment, good low level inflow, over warm sea surface temperature, and good upper level outflow. It is expected to track globally westwards.
Hey, HGW. Did we ever find any studies correlating increased activity in the SIndian with El Nino conditions in the Pacific?
Amen, Baha.
post 184
winter123 I've been liking those animations you've been putting up the past few days--where do you find them?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Global warming killed the video star.
Global warming is something the world can adjust to as it happens. To me there are more important concerns to be addressed. And some of them deserve immediate attention. I am not saying do not start making advancements to help slow GW, but priorities should take precedent. jmo
Link

Here is what the RSMC said earlier this fall about the cyclone season

9-11 named cyclone looks low for now..
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
winter123 I've been liking those animations you've been putting up the past few days--where do you find them?


Link
Hydrus, post 190.
About These things that need more priority, and should be dealt with before the issue of GW. Are these things that affect you, or your community, or the entire World?
Quoting BahaHurican:
I hate to say to many of the US residents on this board, but most of the rest of the world is no longer arguing about whether AGW exists; Copenhagen is a lot more about what to do about it. Many world areas are experiencing serious climate shift, and people dwelling in these areas feel certain that human activities are at best exacerbating the effects, if not in fact serving as a major cause.

Example: the Dust Bowl phenomenon of the 1930s was not CAUSED by man, but man's activities certainly contributed to the effects.


Right on the button my friend, at least IMO.
There is a whole lot of NOTHING going on out there. Might have to do with the fact that it is the end of the season....JMO
Quoting pottery:
Hydrus, post 190.
About These things that need more priority, and should be dealt with before the issue of GW. Are these things that affect you, or your community, or the entire World?
All three.
Bring it on (West Palm/Lake Worth):

Nov 23 Tonight
A few showers early, then clouds lingering overnight. Low 69F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Nov 24 Tomorrow
Mostly cloudy in the morning. Isolated thunderstorms may develop later in the day. High 83F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Nov 24 Tomorrow night
Showers and a few thundershowers. Low 71F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Nov 25 Wednesday
Showers, maybe a rumble of thunder. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 26 Thursday
Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Nov 27 Friday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the low 50s.
Nov 28 Saturday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the mid 50s.
Nov 29 Sunday
A few clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Nov 30 Monday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Dec 1 Tuesday
Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Dec 2 Wednesday
A few thunderstorms possible. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Quoting RufusBaker:
There is a whole lot of NOTHING going on out there. Might have to do with the fact that it is the end of the season....JMO

True nothing going on , looks the Atlantic & Caribbean basins are closed til next season which might be a whole other story, then again it might not be, who knows?
The US-Cuban Hurricane conference was a big success here in NOLA today.
I met with Ivor Van Heerden from LSU,Retired Gen. Honore from Task Force Katrina,also met and spent a few minutes with NHC forecaster Avila as well.
I will have a complete Blog entry on the conference,tomorrow or Weds,..



Todays schedule..of speakers.
I was asked to speak at the end of the Conference and was surprised by the request,..

I was able to mention the wunderground and all the valuable things they have to offer.

> The Center for International Policy Takes Pleasure in Inviting You to
>
> A Conference on U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Defending Against Hurricanes
>
> To be held November 23, 2009, in New Orleans at River City Plaza, next to
Mardi Gras World
>
> 1380 Port of New Orleans Place
>
>
>
> 2 p.m. Introduction by Wayne S. Smith of the Center for International Policy
>
>
>
> 2:15 2:45 p.m. Vital U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Tracking Hurricanes and
Warning of their Approach. Jose Rubiera, of the Cuban Meteorological Center
(invited) and Lixion Avila of the U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami. Chaired by
Jay Higginbotham, Archivist Emeritus of Mobile
>
>
>
> 2:45 4:00 p.m. - U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in the Face of Hurricanes.
Dagoberto Rodriguez Barrera, Cuban Vice Minister of Foreign Relations
(invited); Lt.General (Ret) Russel Honore, Former Commander of Joint Task Force
Katrina; Lt. Col (Ret) Jerry Sneed, Director of Emergency Preparedness of
Orleans Parish; Ivor van Heerden, Founder of the Louisiana State University
Hurricane Center; Robert Turner, Director of the Southeast Louisiana Flood
Protection Authority. Chaired by Wayne Smith, Center for International Policy.
>
>
>
> 4:00 4:30 p.m. The Growing Focus on Disaster Medicine and Disaster
Management in Both the U.S. and Cuba. Dr. Guillermo Mesa Ridel, Director, Latin
American Center for Disaster Medicine (invited); Dr. Alex Isakov, Founding
Director of the Emory University Office of Critical Event Preparedness and
Response; Lt. Gen Russel Honore, Board Member of LSU's Stephenson Disaster
Management Institute; Chaired by Randy Poindexter, Executive Director of
International Cuba Society
>
>
>
> 4:30 4:45 p.m. President Obama's Prerogative, Despite the Embargo, to
Authorize U.S. Companies to Sell Cuba Reconstruction Materials and Equipment.
Robert L. Muse, Attorney, Muse and Associates
>
>
>
> 4:45 5:00 p.m. Shared Ecosystems: Opportunities for Increasing
Environmental Cooperation and Collaboration between Cuba and the United States.
Dan Whittle, Senior Attorney with the Environmental Defense Fund.
>
>
>
> 5:00 6:00 p.m. Open Discussion. Participants from the various delegations
to Cuba, and other interested parties, are invited to comment and express
opinions as to new initiatives and directions and how we could better organize
to advance our objectives. Mr. Ky Luu, the Director of the Tulane University
Disaster Resilience Leadership Academy, will have the first comment.
>
>
>
> 6:00 7:30 p.m. - Reception with cash bar in the Grand Oaks Mansion



GeoffreyWPB I didn't know that was part of coolwx.com! I first started using that site back in the spring of 1995 when it was part of Penn State meteorology :) It was the first weather site I visited regulary, wunderground being the second :)
Quoting Patrap:
The US-Cuban Hurricane conference was a big success here in NOLA today.
I met with Ivor Van Heerden from LSU,Retired Gen Honore from the Task Force Katrina ,also met and spent a few minutes with NHC forecaster Avila as well.
I will have a complete Blog entry on the conference,tomorrow or Weds,..

Wish I could have come down, Pat. Knew I couldn't...

Van Heerden really likes to talk to people, it seems. Once had dinner with the guy...talked his head off. (I enjoyed every minute)
Quoting atmoaggie:

Wish I could have come down, Pat. Knew I couldn't...

Van Heerden really likes to talk to people, it seems. Once had dinner with the guy...talked his head off. (I enjoyed every minute)


One of the pleasant surprises today was my conversation with Him.
He's also very aware of the wunderground.com and supports the open discussions offered here as well.
205. IKE
6-10 day temps....




8-14 day temps....

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
huh Quikscat is now gone??<BR>
Additional Information from Pre-Bongani advisory
================================================
Quikscat Date of the last night shows clearly an improving low level circulation center due to the development of deep convection over the center during the night, but pression remains high as environmental pression remains high to. The system is expected to develop progressively due to a favorable environment, good low level inflow, over warm sea surface temperature, and good upper level outflow. It is expected to track globally westwards.


Latest info I have seen:

000
NOUS72 KNES 231428
ADMNES
SUBJECT: USER NOTIFICATION ABOUT QUIKSCAT PRODUCTS. ISSUED 11/23/09
*DATE/TIME(UTC) MESSAGE ISSUED:
*
23 NOVEMBER 2009/1300 UTC

*SATELLITE(S) INVOLVED:
*
QUIKSCAT

*PRODUCT(S) INVOLVED/AFFECTED:
*
ALL QUIKSCAT PRODUCTS

*DETAILS:
*
THE SCATTEROMETER ANTENNA SPIN MECHANISM HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE.
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS THE ANTENNA
SPIN MECHANISM HAS BEEN UNABLE TO MAINTAIN A CONSTANT 18 RPM ROTATION
RATE. THE SPIN RATE HAS DROPPED TO
ZERO SEVERAL TIMES. THE SPIN RATE CONTROL IS CURRENT LIMITED AND AS A
RESULT THE MOTOR IS UNABLE TO DELIVER SUFFICIENT
TORQUE TO OVERCOME THE INCREASED AND RAPIDLY VARYING BEARING FRICTION.
THE ANTENNA SUBSYSTEM CAN BE BEST
DESCRIBED AS "CHATTERING". AS DESIGNED, THE OPERATIONAL DATA PROCESSING
SYSTEM IS DROPPING ALL SIGMA0 MEASUREMENTS
FOR SPIN RATES BELOW 15 RPM AS DESIGNED AND THUS NO WIND RETRIEVALS ARE
BEING MADE FOR SPIN RATES BELOW 15RPM.
THE QUIKSCAT WINDS BEING RETRIEVED ARE STILL OF THE SAME QUALITY AS
PREVIOUSLY BUT AS THE GAPS IN THE DATA
SWATHS INCREASE USERS MIGHT START SEEING PROBLEMS IN THE AMBIGUITY
REMOVAL PORTION OF THE PROCESSING (INCONSISTENT
DIRECTIONS). SMALL GAPS CAN NOW BE SEEN IN THE CURRENT PASSES
HTTP://MANATI.ORBIT.NESDIS.NOAA.GOV/QUIKSCAT. IT APPEARS
THAT THE QUIKSCAT MISSION MAY BE NEAR ITS END OF NOMINAL OPERATING LIFE
AND FURTHER NOTICES WILL BE SENT AS EVENTS UNFOLD.
Sounds like it was Fantastic Pat.
Speaking at length this evening with Forecaster Avila of the NHC ..he stated that although Quikscat has apparently failed..its not the end all of scatterometer data,..but the US needs to invest in another On -orbit carry on to enhance our data sets in the Future.
ASCAT and other sources will augment the Loss
ah so that is why RSMC Mauritius is suddenly referring to CIMSS ASCAT Pass now
Quoting pottery:
Sounds like it was Fantastic Pat.


I sure learned a lot about US-Cuban Hurricane past History and the hope of future collaboration as well pottery.

Look for my entry on the conference late tomorrow or weds.
Looking forward to that, Pat.


Great Britain/England with another strong low heading their way..
213. amd
found a good website which prints out the gfs output for the next sixteen days.

This example is for Houston

To get a forecast for another city, all one has to do is enter the city of interest, and then click on the 16 day forecast link.
Figures...my first night off in a week and none of the regulars are on tonight :(
US General Urges Washington to Improve Ties with Cuba

Havana, Nov 23.- US General Russell Honore who lived the experience of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005 said that Cuba has valuable lessons to show the US in the fight against natural disasters and urged Washington to improve relations with the island, according to the daily Shreveport Times.

“The Cuban people know how to handle hurricanes”, said General Honore who was characterized by the daily as a “hard line general”.

“Despite the island being a small nation, with economic difficulties, they work well to prevent damages caused by hurricanes and prepare and avoid damages to its people and property”, said the US General.

General Honore presented on Monday a conference on Cooperation between Cuba and the US in defense of hurricanes. Also participating in the meeting is Dr. Jose Rubiera, Director of the National Weather Institute. 3 (Taken from RHC-Cubadebate)
I think this embargo we still have on Cuba is ridiculous. Castro is on his death bed...Change is coming.
Quoting amd:
found a good website which prints out the gfs output for the next sixteen days.

This example is for Houston

To get a forecast for another city, all one has to do is enter the city of interest, and then click on the 16 day forecast link.


That is a nice site
Quoting Patrap:
Speaking at length this evening with Forecaster Avila of the NHC ..he stated that although Quikscat has apparently failed..its not the end all of scatterometer data,..but the US needs to invest in another On -orbit carry on to enhance our data sets in the Future.
ASCAT and other sources will augment the Loss


Do you know what kind of carbon footprint those big rockets will leave not to mention how much space junk there is already out there.
Can't have it both ways boys.
Just going over most of the posts from yesterday, I saw no one mentioned the death of President Kennedy 46 years ago. A day late, but does anyone have any memories of that day?
Evening Drak...after this cool snap this week...any models showing a trend in fronts making it down this far?
221. Maat
Vince Young is a good NFL QB...

Go Titans!
222. Maat
Wow! Houston got a beautiful Stadium!!

Anybody watching Tennessee and Houston? on ESPN

Battle of the Oilers
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Just going over most of the posts from yesterday, I saw no one mentioned the death of President Kennedy 46 years ago. A day late, but does anyone have any memories of that day?


Yes, Geoff, people were much nicer to each other in those days! Even those who disagreed with him politically understood the tragedy of what occurred.
224. Maat
Old oilers went Tennessee and then Houston got a new team..

Earl Campbell ran for the Titans, not the Texans.

Shame.

Same crap in Cleveland and Balitmore.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Evening Drak...after this cool snap this week...any models showing a trend in fronts making it down this far?


The GFS and ECMWF shows another front coming down mid next week. Enough mid to upper level dynamics to push the front through and keep us cool.
226. Maat
NFL jigsaw puzzle with statistical history...kind of like meteorology.

Thanks Drak.
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, Geoff, people were much nicer to each other in those days! Even those who disagreed with him politically understood the tragedy of what occurred.


I would imagine like a 9/11 scenario.
Local forecast I made for my area at 7:30PM EST tonight.

Gen. Russell Honore (Ret.) former Cmdr. Task Force Katrina taking notes notes today before his panel appearance at the Hurricane Conference in New Orleans..

My first real memory of any Tragedy was November 22nd 1963,as it was 6 weeks before my 4th Birthday,..as I was getting a Haircut in a High Barber Chair that Day with my Mother,and the enormity of something terrible happening was so strong,even a 4 year Old was scared to see Adults react like they did.

And that sorrow wasnt eased until I was 9,to a certain degree, when the Apollo 11 Landing and return occurred and America had realized his Dream,..and accomplished it.

Those of us 50 or Older will always know what JFK meant to America,and how much we lost that fateful day,46 years ago.
I am a little bit younger than you Pat..But my mom told me that all schools were let out that day. Maybe the red scare scenario at the time. The History and Discovery Channels had some documentaries on it, but I was very surprised the Sunday morning talk shows ignored it. And you are right, if not for JFK, we would have never landed on the moon and our space program would not be what it is today.
For some reason I like this song...

Looks like Nida might feed off of TD-27W after 72 hours according to latest prognostic reasoning on TD-27 from the JTWC.

WDPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/

1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MINDINAO, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED 50 NM TO THE
NORTH. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BOTH POSITIONING AND
MOTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30-35
KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RESTRICTED OUTFLOW OVER
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED FROM 55 TO 45 KNOTS AT THE EXTENDED TAUS.
B. TD 27W IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES
OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED NORTH AND IS NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY (QS). TD 27W IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN QS THROUGH TAU 48 BUT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TS 26W. WEAK INTERACTION IS
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEMS APPROACH WITHIN 600 NM AFTER TAU 72. TD 26W
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 30-35 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER MARGINAL CONDITIONS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 27W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
POLEWARD AND SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40-45 KNOTS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE QS TRACK WITH SEVERAL MODELS SUPPORTING WEAK
INTERACTION AND MERGER; TD 27W IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS
INTO THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF TS 26W.
//
NNNN
So...is GW the same as Climate Change?
Interesting post on Nida. Thanks Magic. We sometimes forget there is another Hemisphere. I think it is on the other side of the world which is why we probably forget about it.
No GW is when the whole world gets warm and Climate change happens everyday. You know one day it rains and one day its sunny.
Farewell to a Spacecraft that served well,years beyond her Service design Life.

A true testament to her Builders,and those who maintained it on orbit as well.

Goodnight QuikScat, and we thank you.


So is the whole world getting warm??? going down to the 40's in so. Fla. this weekend?
Quoting Patrap:
Farewell to a Spacecraft that served well,years beyond her Service design Life.

A true testament to her Builders,and those who maintained it on orbit as well.

Goodnight QuikScat, and we thank you.




And did I read right that it would be at least 2015 til a new satellite could be launched?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
So is the whole world getting warm??? going down to the 40's in so. Fla. this weekend?


Heard it was getting cold in Alaska, too! Go figure. I think they mgiht exagerate the low temperatures in Florida to make the residents feel they are getting a break from the heat. It was 87 deg today. How could it go down to 40 in just a few days, it doesn't make sense.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


And did I read right that it would be at least 2015 til a new satellite could be launched?


How will we know a storm is coming without the satellite. We obviously can't trust the scientists after this week-ends fiasco. Whom do we trust now. I guess we will just have to watch Fox news and see what they say. They always get it right.
I respect you a lot Grothar...but it did not get to 87 down where you live! And the lows this weekend will dip into the 40's in some areas of so. Florida.
Quoting Patrap:
Speaking at length this evening with Forecaster Avila of the NHC ..he stated that although Quikscat has apparently failed..its not the end all of scatterometer data,..but the US needs to invest in another On -orbit carry on to enhance our data sets in the Future.
ASCAT and other sources will augment the Loss
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
ah so that is why RSMC Mauritius is suddenly referring to CIMSS ASCAT Pass now
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I respect you a lot Grothar...but it did not get to 87 down where you live! And the lows this weekend will dip into the 40's in some areas of so. Florida.


http://www.bing.com/weather/search?q=ft%20lauderdale%20weather&P1=[WeatherAnswer%20Scenario=%22Weat herOverviewPage%22%20Unit=%22F%22]
Link


Ha ha Geoff. Look at the link. We broke a record today set in 1989. I don't know who was keeping records that far back, but they should be reliable.
85 is the highest I found in Ft. Lauderdale
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
85 is the highest I found in Ft. Lauderdale


You weren't looking in the right places.
Today's State Extremes

State Highs:
Miami 87°F
Kendall 86°F
Fort Myers 85°F
Ft Lauderdale 85°F
Okeechobee 84°F
253. xcool
Quoting Patrap:


Hey Patrap, why spend all that money on something no one will look at. Don't you think it is taking money out of our pockets for something that foolish. They probably make up the data anyway according to most of the posts on here today.
All those Long range still show a significant Dixie Snow Event round the 1st or 2nd,..interesting.

NOLA's earliest Snowfall recorded was a Year ago Dec 12th I believe.
257. xcool
1963 snow in n.o
258. xcool
make 5 time models show snow in la imo
259. xcool
IS THIS 1963 (WEATHERWISE)?

This is getting a bit spooky. The more I study 1963, which by the way was one of the years it snowed in New Orleans, New Year's Eve 1964, and opined yesterday is the idea of back-to-back years with snow in New Orleans, the more I think that this is the current best overall analog. That year, it was Thanksgiving weekend that was the dividing line, and I show that on the Long Ranger. The Big Dog examines the weekend storm, rain in the big cities but what could be a traffic snarling snow event above 1,200 feet from West Virginia to northern New England. Though rain starts the storm, a change to wind whipped wet snow is likely and some flakes may get into the big cities at the end. That year, the 1963 "dividing line" storm came on the 29th and 30th and from then on it was downhill. This year it starts with this weekend, though it will take some time before arctic source region air masses get in, but take a look at the Big Dog and Long Ranger for the upcoming storm and the flip in 1963


Joe Bastardi's
Making me dizzy Keeper :)
261. xcool
opps errorss.Dec 11, 2008 ...
I remember the New Years Snow 63..,but its kinda way back in the Ol Brain....

It was Dec 22-25th 1989,20 yrs ago we had a Big Blue Northern blow thru as well. Low of 13F and was below freezing for 40 Hours,lotsa broken water pipes too
sorry G
264. BtnTx
Quoting Patrap:
My first real memory of any Tragedy was November 22nd 1963,as it was 6 weeks before my 4th Birthday,..as I was getting a Haircut in a High Barber Chair that Day with my Mother,and the enormity of something terrible happening was so strong,even a 4 year Old was scared to see Adults react like they did.

And that sorrow wasnt eased until I was 9,to a certain degree, when the Apollo 11 Landing and return occurred and America had realized his Dream,..and accomplished it.

Those of us 50 or Older will always know what JFK meant to America,and how much we lost that fateful day,46 years ago.

I was in 4th grade at Catholic school and someone brought the news of Kennedy's death to our teacher and she announced it. Everyone cried.
265. xcool


1963 snow in n.o
259....where did you copy that from?
267. xcool
proa.accuweather.com
268. xcool
Southeast Louisiana saw 4-8 inches, mainly east of the Mississippi river, with New Orleans, Louisiana measuring 4.5 inches. Damages totalled at least US$50,000 (1963 dollars
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Just going over most of the posts from yesterday, I saw no one mentioned the death of President Kennedy 46 years ago. A day late, but does anyone have any memories of that day?

Geoffrey, "Memories" I was in the USNavy and home on leave to get married. Same gal I'm still married to BTW. Kennedy was assassinated on Fri. 11/22/63 we got married 11/23/63. Honeymooned in NYC. It was closed no Broadway shows and even the Empire State Building was not allowing visitors to go topside to the observation deck, due to the fear and not knowing if it was a communist plot. Don't forget it was right after the days of the Cuban Missile Crisis. (re; Oct.1962) Things were still on shaky ground.
270. xcool
GeoffreyWPB y
269....Thank you for your memories. I am a history buff and appreciate first-hand rememberances.
270....You should give credit to the sites you copy posts from.
273. xcool
GeoffreyWPB .nope .dnot need too .
274. xcool
go too proa.accuweather.com pay for it 24.95$
Quoting xcool:
IS THIS 1963 (WEATHERWISE)?

This is getting a bit spooky. The more I study 1963, which by the way was one of the years it snowed in New Orleans, New Year's Eve 1964, and opined yesterday is the idea of back-to-back years with snow in New Orleans, the more I think that this is the current best overall analog. That year, it was Thanksgiving weekend that was the dividing line, and I show that on the Long Ranger. The Big Dog examines the weekend storm, rain in the big cities but what could be a traffic snarling snow event above 1,200 feet from West Virginia to northern New England. Though rain starts the storm, a change to wind whipped wet snow is likely and some flakes may get into the big cities at the end. That year, the 1963 "dividing line" storm came on the 29th and 30th and from then on it was downhill. This year it starts with this weekend, though it will take some time before arctic source region air masses get in, but take a look at the Big Dog and Long Ranger for the upcoming storm and the flip in 1963


Not being funny, but are you talking about the TV shows?
276. xcool
lolGrothar /proa.accuweather.com..Joe Bastardi's
273....My first tip off was there was no misspellings in the original copied post. In your subsequent two posts….Well??? And yes, you should give your sources when you copy and paste.
278. xcool
i did ,sorry my bad
Quoting xcool:
lolGrothar /proa.accuweather.com


Knew you were cool, that is why I felt I could post that. Interesting stuff.
280. xcool
Grothar. yeah i try alot







proa.accuweather.com
xcool...after this cold front passes so. Fla. this week...do the long range models show another soon?
282. xcool
GeoffreyWPB.do you mean snow??
Quoting xcool:
Grothar. yeah i try alot







proa.accuweather.com


You know I have always complimented your work. But remember, there are a number of us here who were teachers and professors. My field was languages. I can easily tell which is a copies excerpt and an original. See we cheat a little, too! Don't worry about. When you steal from one source it is plagiarism, when you steal from two it is called research. Don't worry about it. You are OK in my book.
no cool...I just mean cold weather...another blast of 40's for lows.
285. xcool
Grothar thank alot.i know sometime i mess up big time..






132 hr

GeoffreyWPB their you go
Quoting xcool:
Grothar thank alot.i know sometime i mess up big time..






132 hr

GeoffreyWPB their you go


You do just fine. Remember friends will always have your back. They are all interesting articles. Gives us something to think about, or remember something which we once knew and had forgotten. You make us think! That is a good thing.
Are there no prisons? Are there no workhouses? 'I wish to be left alone,' said Scrooge. 'Since you ask me what I wish, gentlemen, that is my answer. I don't make merry myself at Christmas and I can't afford to make idle people merry. I help to support the establishments I have mentioned-they cost enough; and those who are badly off must go there.'
288. xcool
Grothar .REALLY, THANKS.I JUSTING TRY HELP ALOT .ILOVE WEATHER .!
289. xcool
GeoffreyWPB
SORRY
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Are there no prisons? Are there no workhouses? 'I wish to be left alone,' said Scrooge. 'Since you ask me what I wish, gentlemen, that is my answer. I don't make merry myself at Christmas and I can't afford to make idle people merry. I help to support the establishments I have mentioned-they cost enough; and those who are badly off must go there.'


Ha ha. From memory, too!

"There are some upon this earth of yours," returned the Spirit, "who lay claim to know us, and who do their deeds of passion, pride, ill-will, hatred, envy, bigotry, and selfishness in our name, who are as strange to us and all out kith and kin, as if they had never lived. Remember that, and charge their doings on themselves, not us."
Quoting xcool:
Grothar .REALLY, THANKS.I JUSTING TRY HELP ALOT .ILOVE WEATHER .!


No apology necessary. We all do it. You think I make up all those corny quotes. I only give credit to the well-known ones and hope people think I do the others. Hey, when I post the pictures from the Atlantic you think I painted it?? Don't sweat it. You are much like your handle; a cool guy. Let it rest.
xcool...I do respect you and your love for weather. Just post your own thoughts and when you post others thoughts, just say so.
293. xcool
WHAT HAPPEN TO MATT ?
It was snowing outside in this scene:

It is getting late gentlemen, and I must be going. It has been a pleasure. You all stay well and thank you again. I would imagine the debates shall beging again tomorrow. Let us see what misinformation shall be disseminated next. It is interesting to see how little people really know. Have a good day.
296. xcool
Grothar take care :)
Quoting xcool:
WHAT HAPPEN TO MATT ?


You mean tornadodude? He probably became discouraged with all the nasty remarks. A lot of people do not blog as before. It is discouraging when one is under a constant barrage. Hope he returns.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
It was snowing outside in this scene:



Didn't know it snowed that much in England in those days. I guess global warming has modified their climate. Great actor. No one ever did a better job than he.
299. xcool
tornadodude? yeah
Quoting xcool:
Grothar take care :)


Nite xcool. Stay well.
301. xcool
Grothar ;0
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SEVEN
PERTURBATION TROPICALE, FORMER BONGANI (05-20092010)
10:00 AM Réunion November 24 2009
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance, Former Bongani (1003 hPa) located at 9.5S 51.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disutrbance is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 10.5S 51.2E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 10.7S 50.3E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 11.3S 47.6E - 35 kts (Tempéte Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 12.9S 44.9E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
The system has disrupted within the last night, actually dry air has entered in the circulation in the west northwest sector. As the microwave imagery depicts it (SSMIS 89 GHZ color at 0358z), and with a south-easterly wind shear. According to the Numerical Weather Prediction Models, the dry air influence should decrease within the next 24 hours. During the next 3 days, low level convergence is not expected to increase, Despite a good upper levels divergence and a upper level outflow developing southward within the next 48 hours, re-intensification is expected to be limited by the lower levels. The system is expected to track west-southwest, its steering flow is a mid tropospheric ridge in its southeast.

ALL INTEREST IN THE FAHQUAR ARCHIPELAGO, NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE ISLAND SHOULD STILL CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TROPICAL STORM NIDA (T0922)
15:00 PM JST November 24 2009
===========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nida (990 hPa) located at 8.8N 145.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knot with gusts of 65 knots. The storm is reported as moving west-southwest slowly

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southern quardrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 11.0N 142.5E - 60 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 13.8N 140.5E - 75 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 16.1N 139.1E - 75 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
Good morning, everybody.

Commenting on the above average temps in S FL and the area, it's been 3-4 degrees warmer than average here so far this month. I will say it felt a heck of a lot hotter than 84 degrees yesterday afternoon in Nassau. Normally we are closer to 80 than 85 by the time Thanksgiving week rolls around.

Hopefully we get some moderation of temperatures by the weekend. I'm kinda tired of being hot now.... lol

Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "URDUJA" has changed course and is now moving Eastward slowly.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
===============================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Urduja located at 10.1ºN 125.6ºE or kms north of Surigao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Warning Signal #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Visayas Region
-------------
1.Bohol
2.Leyte Provinces
3.Camotes Island
4.Biliran
5.Eastern Samar
6.Western Samar

Mindanao Region
-------------
1.Surigao Provinces
2.Agusan del Norte
3.Dinagat Island
4.Siargao Island
5.Camiguin

Additional Information
========================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes in areas under PSWS # 1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Troubling trend.....


000
NOUS71 KNES 232118
ADANES
SUBJECT: PRODUCT ANOMALY, DMSP DATA LOST, ISSUED: NOVEMBER 23,
**TOPIC: *DMSP F13 RECORDER PROBLEMS.*

_FINAL_ UPDATE: ESPC IS NOT RECEIVING DMSP F-13 SSMI DATA

DATE/TIME ISSUED*: NOVEMBER 23, 2009 2120 UTC
*

PRODUCT(S) OR DATA IMPACTED:* DMSP F13 SSMI
*

DATE/TIME OF INITIAL IMPACT: *NOVEMBER 19, 2009 0203 UTC ***

USER ACTIONS: *NONE.*

DETAILS/SPECIFICS OF CHANGE: *SOCC ENGINEERING IMPLEMENTED CONTINGENCY
COMMANDING PROCEDURES IN AN ATTEMPT TO RECOVER THE RECORDER. ALL
ATTEMPTS TO COMMAND THE RECORDER BACK INTO PLAYBACK MODE WERE
UNSUCCESSFUL. THERE WAS NO MODULATION OF THE DOWNLINK CARRIER DETECTED
BY REMOTE SITES.
**BASED ON THESE RESULTS, PRIMARY RECORDER (PR #2 FOR F-13 IS OFFICIALLY IN-OPERABLE.
** THEREFORE, ALL DATA RECORDERS ON F-13
HAVE NOW FAILED.
**F-13 CAN NO LONGER ACCOMPLISH ITS PRIMARY
MISSION TO PROVIDE GLOBAL SMOOTH DATA.
**F-13 CAN STILL BE USED BY TACTICAL
USERS FOR REAL-TIME DATA.*
307. IKE
The good news...if you can call it that...is that it didn't happen during the heart of the season.
Or during a more active season. That could have meant we were still in the midst of potential storm development.



Looks like some interesting weather on the way for the eastern GOM and FL....

Have a great day, all.
It looks like Central Florida is in store for a 2 to 4 inch rainfall later today and on Wednesday. On Wed. there will be a tornado potential for the Florida penisula as well. Bigger Severe weather threat on 12/1 and 12/2. Snow will fall on the back side of this next system. Maybe NOLA?
310. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Or during a more active season. That could have meant we were still in the midst of potential storm development.



Looks like some interesting weather on the way for the eastern GOM and FL....

Have a great day, all.


Shear is 70-80 knots in the GOM. El Nino lives on.

The clock is running out on the 2009 season.....

162 hours...
15 minutes from being over...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


9-3-2
sure could use some rain a month or so its been dry herre in e cen fl
9-3-2

Even with el nino in effect, still a near average season....
313. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
9-3-2

Even with el nino in effect, still a near average season....


That's true.
314. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
sure could use some rain a month or so its been dry herre in e cen fl


Looks like a real good shot coming up for you in the next 1-2 days.
Quoting Patrap:
All those Long range still show a significant Dixie Snow Event round the 1st or 2nd,..interesting.

NOLA's earliest Snowfall recorded was a Year ago Dec 12th I believe.


December 10th
316. IKE
From Tallahassee weather office...

"GLOBAL MODELS ARE SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM
TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...DURING MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. KEEP
IN MIND THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE FAR EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE DETAILS OF THE GUIDANCE ARE LIKELY
TO CHANGE BEFORE THEN. HOWEVER...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING A PATTERN THAT WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO THE FORECAST AREA. KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
RESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IN CASE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
BECOMES MORE LIKELY."

6Z GFS @ 150 hours....


lucky to get a half let you know thanks
319. P451
Good Morning. The remnants of Ida continue to push along into the East Atlantic. Around 32.5N and 42W.

RAMSDIS continues a floater on the system.

RAMSDIS Loop:



24Hour Loop:



The window of opportunity for any tropical re-development has passed. Yesterday morning the system looked very well organized but has since been hit with higher shear and will remain extra-tropical in nature as it brushes the Azores and possibly curves back ESE to take on the Canary Islands before possibly landfalling near Morocco. Keep in mind we first started watching an area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean on October 31st!

320. P451
KOG: How much do you trust this potential "double-nor-easter" setup for the 1st week of December?

For, the small system we're seeing today affecting NJ was also blown up to be a big nor'easter by the models.

So which trend to trust? A new pattern with deep artic intrusion resulting in a couple of deep coastal lows? Or over-done models yielding to modest systems?

I'm inbetween until I actually see the new pattern take shape (beginning Friday) which is our first cool-down (to highs in the upper 40s).
Quoting P451:
KOG: How much do you trust this potential "double-nor-easter" setup for the 1st week of December?

For, the small system we're seeing today affecting NJ was also blown up to be a big nor'easter by the models.

So which trend to trust? A new pattern with deep artic intrusion resulting in a couple of deep coastal lows? Or over-done models yielding to modest systems?

I'm inbetween until I actually see the new pattern take shape (beginning Friday) which is our first cool-down (to highs in the upper 40s).
like you said friday will be the day to see if its been overdone
but it has been depicting
this for a few runs and continues to depict it and others models are on board as well we wait watch and aee nothing else we can do
here is another view

Cold weather coming south... LOOK at the LOOP under the AOI for today....Wow great look at how a low pulls cold air down on the back side.

For thost of you that know her. Today is AubieGirls birthday....send her a little wish
325. NickO
Jeff,

For yr interest, we are having some very wet weather indeed in NW England and SW Scotland at the moment, breaking numerous records, and causing a lot of distress to people, businesses etc. With a milder Winter being forecast by the Met. Office, more of the same seems likely, as we usually get v. wet and windy conditions with the warmer than usual Autumn/Winter weather here; a lot of energy in the Atlantic, I guess.

Look fwd very much to your comments and assessment of the U.E.A. e-mail hacking controversy; also good comments on this on 'Real Climate' at the moment.
LOOK at the 24-72 hour forecast map.....Colder air is coming just in time for the Holiday Weekend to the EAst and SE.





I wouldn't be surprised if there is a severe weather high risk area for Central and North Florida on Tuesday 12/1/09. On Tuesday strong SSE winds at the surface and a very powerful jetstream aloft spells trouble for Florida. The models have been persistant with this potential scenario for days now. This appears to be a life threating situation if this does unfold like the models are saying.
TCFA for disturbance south of Vietnam has been reissued.

WTPN22 PGTW 241100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231051ZNOV09//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.2N 107.6E TO 6.6N 103.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 240532Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 106.8E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.5N
107.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 106.8E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTH OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT
ON THE WESTERN HALF OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A RECENT WINDSAT PASS SHOWED TWO REGIONS OF STRONG
CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS NEAR THE LLCC,
HOWEVER, WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WERE RAIN CONTAMINATED BUT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWED 20 KNOTS. A 240626Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
INDICATED SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT, BUT DID NOT SHOW A WELL ORGANIZED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SUPPORTS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LLCC. WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
251100Z.//
NNNN



Typhoon Nida
(at 4AM EST)9.2N 144.7E
Winds:75MPH
Movement:WNW at 6MPH
Avg. Radius of TS-winds:65 Miles
Very small tropical cyclone
Pressure:990MB



Tropical Depression 27W
Final JTWC Advisory
(at 4AM EST)10.0N 125.8E
Winds:25MPH
Movement:W at 8MPH
Pressure:1002MB



332. P451
MOUNT HOLLY NJ:

.CLIMATE...
TIME ALWAYS MARCHES ON AND ITS TIME ONCE AGAIN FOR OUR SEMI-ANNUAL
ANALOG FEST OF TRYING TO COMPARE THIS AUTUMN`S TEMPERATURES AND ENSO
STATE WITH SIMILAR INSTANCES IN THE PAST.

THIS UPCOMING WINTER WILL FEATURE EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A MODERATE TYPE EL NINO TO OCCUR.
THE LAST TWO WINTERS THAT HAD MODERATE EL NINOS WERE 2002-3 AND
2006-7, ALMOST POLAR OPPOSITE WINTERS IN SPITE OF BEING IN THE SAME
CATEGORY. THE 2002-3 EL NINO WAS MORE WEST BASED THAN 2006-7. THE
2002-3 EL NINO HAD A PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) THAT WAS
STRONGLY POSITIVE AND THERE WAS A COLD WATER POOL AROUND
NEWFOUNDLAND. THE 2006-7 EL NINO THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION WAS
MORE NEUTRAL, AND THERE WAS A WARM POOL AROUND NEWFOUNDLAND. SO FAR
THIS AUTUMN THE EL NINO DOES LOOK MORE WEST BASED THAN 2006-7, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION HAS RECENTLY BEEN WEAKLY POSITIVE AND
THERE WAS, BUT NOT AT THE PRESENT MOMENT, A NEWFOUNDLAND WARM POOL.

EARLIER THIS MONTH A WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG THE EQUATOR CAUSED A
RAPID WARMING OF THE TROPICAL WATERS WHICH BROUGHT THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES INTO THE LOW END OF THE STRONG EL NINO
CATEGORY. SINCE THEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE
STABILIZED. AS PER ITS NAME MOST EL NINOS PEAK IN DECEMBER BEFORE
WEAKENING THE REST OF THE WINTER.

OTHER ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS ALL AFFECT OUR WEATHER PATTERN.
THE STATE OF THE REST OF THE PACIFIC IS MEASURED BY THE PACIFIC
DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) IN THE LONGER TERM AND THE PACIFIC NORTH
AMERICA OSCILLATION (PNA) IN THE SHORTER TERM. ON OUR SIDE OF THE
COAST WE HAVE THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO). WE ARE IN THE
DECADAL CYCLE WHERE THE PDO IS AVERAGING NEGATIVE. THIS DOES NOT
FAVOR PROLONGED RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, A POSITIVE PNA. BUT
IN EL NINO WINTERS, THE PDO CAN AND HAS BECOME POSITIVE AS IT DID
DURING THE WINTERS OF 1982-3 AND 1997-8.

MEANWHILE THE STATE OF THE ATLANTIC AS MEASURED BY THE NAO ALSO
INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. A POSITIVE NAO GENERALLY FAVORS MILDER
WEATHER WHILE A NEGATIVE NAO FAVORS COLDER AND STORMIER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER IS MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN USUAL WITH MANY CONFLICTING
SIGNALS. THE NEWFOUNDLAND WATER POOL AVERAGED WARM DURING THE LATE
SPRING AND SUMMER. USUALLY THE WINTER FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS ONE OF
THE REASONS THAT THE UKMET OUTLOOK FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS FOR
A POSITIVE NAO. BUT, (TU AL) OTHER RESEARCH HAS SHOWN
CORRELATIONS BETWEEN LOWER THAN AVERAGE SURFACE PRESSURES SOUTH OF
ALASKA AND OCEANIC TEMPERATURE DIPOLES AROUND JAPAN IN THE AUTUMN
AND THE NAO FOR THE ENSUING WINTER. THE SOUTH OF ALASKA SURFACE
PRESSURE AVERAGED LOWER THAN NORMAL AND THE JAPANESE OCEANIC
DIPOLE BOTH CORRELATE TO A NEGATIVE NAO. ON THE OTHER HAND CLIMO
RESEARCH HAS SHOWN ABOUT A 60/40 SWITCH BETWEEN THE NAO STATE IN
OCTOBER AND THE ENSUING WINTER. THE NAO AVERAGED NEGATIVE IN
OCTOBER. LASTLY THE NEWFOUNDLAND WATER POOL TURNED COOLER THAN
NORMAL AFTER HURRICANE BILL PASSED AND HAS NOT LOOKED BACK YET.

IF THE EL NINO REMAINS AS STRONG AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST TWO WEEKS,
IT CAN OVERWHELM THE NAO AND PDO AND REDUCE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER. BUT WITHOUT A CERTAIN STRONG EL NINO, THE FATE OF THIS
WINTER WILL BE INFLUENCED SOME BY THESE LESS PREDICTABLE
TELECONNECTIONS. HENCE THIS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD MODERATE EL NINO
WINTER FROM JUST A PDO AND NAO PERSPECTIVE AS OF TODAY LOOKS LIKE
A CROSS BETWEEN THE WINTERS OF 2002-3 AND 2006-7.

THIS FINALLY TAKES US TO THE LIST OF EL NINO AUTUMNS IN THE PAST IN
PHILADELPHIA. ALL OF THESE ANALOG YEARS HAD AN OCTOBER THAT WAS IN
THE AVERAGE OR NORMAL TERCILE OF ALL OCTOBERS DATING BACK TO 1872
AND A NOVEMBER THAT AVERAGED WARMER THAN NORMAL, IN THE HIGHEST
TERCILE.

HERE ARE THE BIG EIGHT OF WHAT OCCURRED WITH PAST EL NINOS THAT HAD
AN AVERAGE OCTOBER AND WARM NOVEMBER. THIS IS BASED ON THE 137 YEARS
OF RECORD IN PHILADELPHIA. THE NORMALS ARE THE CURRENT 1971-2000
NORMALS.


YEAR ENSUING ENSUING ENSUING AVG ENSUING ENSUING
DEC JAN FEB TEMP PCPN SNOW

1877-8 40.8 33.0 36.9 36.9 6.41 N/A
1902-3 33.7 32.6 36.5 34.3 14.44 16.8
1930-1 36.6 36.2 37.4 36.7 6.59 4.1
1963-4 27.9 33.0 31.8 30.9 8.51 32.9
1982-3 41.3 34.1 34.0 36.5 8.14 35.9
1994-5 41.9 38.2 31.5 37.2 7.62 9.8
2004-5 37.8 31.8 36.1 35.2 10.23 30.4
2006-7 42.7 38.2 28.0 36.3 7.23 13.4

AVERAGE 37.8 34.6 34.0 35.5 8.65 20.5
NORMAL 37.4 32.3 34.8 34.8 9.57 19.3

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THIS WINTER HAS THE PHILADELPHIA AREA
ON THE BORDER BETWEEN EQUAL CHANCES TO OUR NORTH AND A SLIGHTLY
GREATER CHANCE OF THE WINTER BEING COLDER THAN NORMAL TO OUR SOUTH.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS EQUAL CHANCES OF BEING EITHER WETTER
OR DRIER THAN NORMAL.

SEASONAL SNOWFALLS HAVE TREMENDOUS VARIABILITY IN EL NINO WINTERS
ONCE THE STRENGTH INCREASES TO MODERATE OR GREATER. THE STRONGER
SUBTROPICAL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE EL NINO NOT ONLY INCREASES THE
FREQUENCY OF STORMS, BUT ALSO BRINGS IN RELATIVELY WARMER AIR. WE
HAVE WITNESSED IT THIS AUTUMN WITH THREE STRONG NOREASTERS AND
OTHER WEAKER SYSTEMS. THE QUESTION ALWAYS BECOMES HOW COLD WILL IT
BE WHEN THESE STORMS ARRIVE. THE COLDEST AND SNOWIEST EL NINO
WINTERS OCCUR IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN THE EL NINO REMAINS WEAK. IN
PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1950 WEAK EL NINOS HAVE AVERAGED 28.1 INCHES OF
SNOW, MODERATE EL NINOS 22.9 INCHES OF SNOW AND STRONG EL NINOS
16.6 INCHES OF SNOW.

USING A MODERATE EL NINO AS THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER AND LOOKING BACK AT MODERATE EL NINOS SINCE 1950, WE FOUND
THAT MODERATE EL NINOS HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR SEVEN OF THE FORTY-SEVEN
SIX INCH OR GREATER MEASURED SNOW EVENTS IN PHILADELPHIA. FROM AN
OVERALL PERSPECTIVE THEY HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR 15 PERCENT OF ALL THESE
EVENTS IN SPITE THAT MODERATE EL NINOS ONLY COMPRISE 10 PERCENT
OF ALL WINTERS SINCE 1950. THE LARGER SNOW EVENTS DURING MODERATE
EL NINO WINTERS FAVOR THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE AS MEASURED IN
PHILADELPHIA. SINCE 1950 THERE HAVE BEEN SEVEN EVENTS THAT HAVE
EQUALED OR EXCEEDED SIX INCHES OF SNOW AND ONE THAT HAS EQUALED OR
EXCEEDED TEN INCHES.

THE QUESTION WE WISHED WE KNEW THE ANSWER TO WAS WHETHER THIS
UPCOMING NINO WINTER WOULD BE A ONE HIT WONDER LIKE 1994-5 OR GO
PLATINUM LIKE 1982-3 OR 2004-5. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE IS
NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE TRENDS. WE HOPE EVERYBODY HAS A VERY
HAPPY AND HEALTHY THANKSGIVING AND UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND WINTER
SEASON. THE SALT HAS BEEN PURCHASED AND THE SNOW THROWER IS GASSED
AND READY TO GO.
Tropical Storm Bongani
(at 4AM EST)11.1S 51.5E
Winds:45MPH
Movement:SSW at 13MPH
Avg. Radius of TS-winds:50 Miles
Pressure:1005MB



335. P451
Quoting winter123:


Quikscat is down or something, but AScatc confirms a near closed or closed surface low! I'm amazed this is not even a yellow circle. Hello, NHC, its still officially atlantic hurricane season! Drop your beer and get back to work.


doubt it will be absorbed by this front but it is headed to deathly cold water. But come on, no invest, no yellow circle even? If something is warm core, outflow on all sides, and has a LLC I think that warrents a yellow circle.


Post 181.

Good catch. It did look very healthy there. It is deteriorating though and has merged with/interacted with that front now this AM...so that's probably it for any tropical or sub tropical regeneration.

Seems to want to hold together though. Hints are a brush with the Azores and then a turn towards Morocco.

336. P451
NOAA 17 Image, off the canary islands weather website.



Link
Quoting Orcasystems:
Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of 'Anthropogenic Global Warming'?



If true, and I believe it is. They ought to be brought up criminal charges.
338. P451
NEW BLOG



Link


NEW BLOG



Link