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Globe has 10th warmest May on record; critical fire conditions for Arizona

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:27 PM GMT on June 16, 2011

May 2011 was the globe's 10th warmest May on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). May 2011 global ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were 0.6°C above average, the 7th highest SSTs of the past 100 years. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were above average, the 8th or 12th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH).


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Unusual global extremes in May and spring 2011
As I discussed in yesterday's post, during the spring period of March, April, and May 2011, 46% of the U.S. had abnormally (top 10%) wet or dry conditions--the greatest such area during the 102-year period of record. On average, just 21% of the country has exceptionally wet conditions or exceptionally dry conditions during spring. In addition, heavy 1-day precipitation events--the kind that cause the worst flooding--were also at an all-time high in the spring of 2011.

A highly extreme precipitation pattern was also observed over the British Isles during spring 2011. England suffered its driest spring in over a century during May, with late May soils the driest on record over large parts of eastern and central England. In contrast, Scotland had its wettest spring on record.

New Zealand had its warmest May since records began there in 1909, whereas Australia saw its coolest March-May since their records began in 1950.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a detailed summary of May 2011 global weather extremes.

La Niña is gone; conditions are neutral
Although sea surface temperatures increased in the equatorial Pacific overall, El Niño/La Niña conditions remained neutral in the month of May, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Sea surface temperatures were near-average across the central Pacific Ocean, and were 0.5°C or more above average in the far western and eastern Pacific Ocean. Neutral conditions are expected to continue through the summer.

May Arctic sea ice 3rd lowest extent on record
Arctic sea ice in May 2011 was much-below average according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, and ranked 3rd lowest on record for the Northern Hemisphere. Sea ice loss has accelerated during the first half of June, and as of June 16 was the lowest for the date since satellite measurements began in 1979. Snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere was also below average, making May 2011 the 7th consecutive May with below-average snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere.

Five-day period of critical fire conditions expected in the Southwest
The powerful winds that helped fan Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's largest fire on record will return in force today, after a two-day quiet period that allowed firefighter to achieve 29% containment of the fire by Wednesday evening. The forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of 20 - 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph today and Friday. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that even stronger winds will blow Saturday and Sunday. With hot conditions and humidity values below 10%, these are likely to be among the worst fire conditions the region has seen this year.


Figure 2. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire (top area with red squares denoting active fires) drifts northeastward over New Mexico in this image taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 20:30 UTC on June 15, 2011. Arizona's Horseshoe Two fire is also visible, as well as fires burning in New Mexico and Mexico.

The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

Jeff Masters

Fire Drought Climate Change Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting MrMixon:
Is anyone anywhere having any weather right now (besides heat)? There's an ugly little storm between Denver and Burlington... but that's it for us at the moment...



Check out "donut" shape of the storm just before it crosses I-70. Odd.

Nah, pretty quiet everywhere. Well, except for these people the last 15 minutes. ;)

SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 704 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING DENVER CO - KBOU 603 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 702 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 659 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 659 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 657 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 655 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHEYENNE WY - KCYS 555 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING RAPID CITY SD - KUNR 653 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 650 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL - KTBW 749 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 647 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011
Quoting Levi32:
The Barometor Bob Show just started, for any interested.
Hmm, not seeing that Ruskin alert on my local weather page here.
Quoting Torgen:
Well, there is so much nothing happening weather-wise in central Florida that I checked the regional radar to make sure the Ruskin radar was still up. Hopefully the rain showing in south Georgia will snuff those fires. :(
Hey I know the Ruskies are watching us but how did you get on their site? You a mega hacker or sumthin?
Quoting Torgen:


Isn't the ash curving around and covering Egypt and the Middle East? Once it starts affecting oil shipments (or, we're *told* it is as an excuse to raise gas prices) it will get more coverage.


Originally it did. But that has pretty much moved on. And not much ash is erupting right now. Mostly it is SO2 and generally drifting more westerly.
edit: the volcano is at roughly 43/14
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hey I know the Ruskies are watching us but how did you get on their site? You a mega hacker or sumthin?


Seems you have the same problem I have, reading through the wrong lens of your glasses.

;>)
Where in the heck is Aussie, Hope he didn't OD on his homemade cold medicine. He normally reminds us of the Barometer Bob show.
Quoting emcf30:
Where in the heck is Aussie, Hope he didn't OD on his homemade cold medicine. He normally reminds us of the Barometer Bob show.


Anybody remember Buffalo Bob on here, besides me?
Quoting Grothar:


Anybody remember Buffalo Bob on here, besides me?


Howdy Gro.
;)
All I can say is Howdy Doody 508
Quoting Grothar:


Anybody remember Buffalo Bob on here, besides me?

Are you talking about the Howdy Doody Buffalo Bob ?
Quoting emcf30:
Where in the heck is Aussie, Hope he didn't OD on his homemade cold medicine. He normally reminds us of the Barometer Bob show.


Aussie should be having a whale of a time tonight! He's got a potential hurricane directly to the north of him and a cluster of earthquakes off his north coast a bit, plus a bad attack of mid winter and rain no doubt and to make things even more interesting for him/and us, he was telling us how to mix a alcoholic cure to ills a few days ago.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Howdy Gro.
;)


How do? Just woke up from my nap.
Quoting PlazaRed:


Aussie should be having a whale of a time tonight! He's got a potential hurricane directly to the north of him and a cluster of earthquakes off his north coast a bit, plus a bad attack of mid winter and rain no doubt and to make things even more interesting for him/and us, he was telling us how to mix a alcoholic cure to ills a few days ago.
Not only that but tonight is today for him.
Googling is not fair guys. None of you is old enough to remember him. Come on, play fair.
Quoting Grothar:


How do? Just woke up from my nap.


Which one?
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Not only that but tonight is today for him.


Isn't it tomorrow?
Quoting PlazaRed:


Nea, I just have one of those feelings that this volcano along with the Japan Nuclear ongoing lie is going to be here for quite a long time yet as 2 of the things of 2011 that are beyond the control of anybody at the moment and perhaps into the foreseeable future.
If that volcano was in the USA or Europe then it would be constant front page but its in the backwaters and only the Red Sea shipping is going to bring it into the limelight.

I hate to be so cynical, but you're probably right. :-\
Quoting Grothar:
Googling is not fair guys. None of you is old enough to remember him. Come on, play fair.


Oh I remember well. Came on at the same time as Heckle and Jeckle. Mom became the referee. :)
Quoting PcolaDan:


Isn't it tomorrow?


y'know what? Maybe Grothar isn't really the oldest one here, maybe it's really Aussie, cause he's always one day older than ALL of us.

uh-oh, I think I've triggered a brain meltdown here...
Quoting PcolaDan:


Isn't it tomorrow?


Guy, don't do this! I just woke up and am confused already.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Amazing sequence, I cant help thinking it looks like one of the light shows from a Pink Floyd concert around 1968, without the color, not that they had that much of that in those days.
I would bet its a bit scary in those Central American regions at the moment?
.
nice tropical wave at 45 west
Quoting PcolaDan:


Oh I remember well. Came on at the same time as Heckle and Jeckle. Mom became the referee. :)


Dang, boy. You are old.

The EPAC Invest does look too good yet. Give it another day or two. I think it might turn into something.


Quoting HurricaneH:


Correct me if I am wrong, but I belive that Dr. Masters blog post is on global warming, is it not?


If you read highs for record keeping and fires then yea...I was making a generalization on all posts on this blog as a whole...sarcasm and attitude not welcome. ;)
look at 43west nice tropical wave there
Quoting HurricaneH:


Sure: Try http://clivebest.com/blog/?p=2208


I'm afraid you're mistaken.

1. Those almost straight upward lines are predictions of trends. Nowhere is said, that single observations should hit just on line. You can google for 'trend analysis' for more information.

2. The blogger has for some reason selected to show only small portion of highly fluctuating data. Fortunately you can plot the graphs by yourself on this nice site:

Link



I added an overall linear trend line. Made also two with arbitrary start and end points, to show how dangerous (or deceptive) it can be to look at only cherry picked datasets.

Have fun!
I think the area N of Panama might bear watching
Quoting PlazaRed:


Amazing sequence, I cant help thinking it looks like one of the light shows from a Pink Floyd concert around 1968, without the color, not that they had that much of that in those days.
I would bet its a bit scary in those Central American regions at the moment?


WV sequence looks like a machine moving along.... Welcome to the machine...
00z Best Track for 92E.

EP, 92, 2011061700, , BEST, 0, 116N, 941W, 20, 1008, DB
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think the area N of Panama might bear watching
New technology for Aerography... Aerography is the production of weather charts. The information is supplied by radiosonde observations, principally. Constant-pressure charts are routinely constructed at standard air pressures. Standard air pressures are 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 250, and 200 millibars (hectopascals) (hPa) (SI). Weather charts are sometimes drawn at lower air pressures that occur above 40,000 feet (12 km). The lines of equal air pressure are called isobars. Isotherms are the lines of equal air temperature.


First Self-Powered Device With Wireless Data Transmission

ScienceDaily (June 16, 2011) %u2014 Scientists are reporting development of the first self-powered nano-device that can transmit data wirelessly over long distances. In a study in ACS's journal Nano Letters, they say it proves the feasibility of a futuristic genre of tiny implantable medical sensors, airborne and stationary surveillance cameras and sensors, wearable personal electronics, and other devices that operate independently without batteries on energy collected from the environment.

Link
Quoting sunlinepr:


WV sequence looks like a machine moving along.... Welcome to the machine...


Amazing sequence, I agree with Stormpetrol that the part around Panama warrants watching, the sequence looks a bit like the mathematical developments in the book ''Chaos,'' from a long time ago.

Quoting stormpetrol:
I think the area N of Panama might bear watching
Respectfully, no. The convection there is being generated by the divergent (eastern) region of the tropical wave that could ultimately spark development of East Pacific Invest 92E:


539. srada
We got some severe thunderstorms heading for us here in Wilmington.


Quoting srada:
We got some severe thunderstorms heading for us here in Wilmington.

Looks like the possibility of gusty winds.
Some light humor for the evening. :)

Dedicated Greek protester has four legs
542. srada
Quoting KoritheMan:

Looks like the possibility of gusty winds.


NWS is saying between 2am and 4am they are expecting the worst of the severe weather threat when unfortunately most people will be asleep.

Quoting srada:


NWS is saying between 2am and 4am they are expecting the worst of the severe weather threat when unfortunately most people will be asleep.
Yeah, that's not good.

Quoting PcolaDan:
Some light humor for the evening. :)

Dedicated Greek protester has four legs
I like it!
Quoting KoritheMan:

Respectfully, no. The convection there is being generated by the divergent (eastern) region of the tropical wave that could ultimately spark development of East Pacific Invest 92E:


Resectfully, anybody should be allowed to watch whatever they please. ;)
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Resectfully, anybody should be allowed to watch whatever they please. ;)


also its possible that some of that moisture is drawn northward into the tropical wave in the Caribbean

Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Resectfully, anybody should be allowed to watch whatever they please. ;)
Of course they should. But spirited debate regarding opinions is welcome here.
So whats the chances of Florida getting any rain from a trop D/S/H? Anything jumps out in any of the model runs?
Quoting tampastpetefl:
So whats the chances of Florida getting any rain from a trop D/S/H? Anything jumps out in any of the model runs?

Nope. Nothing. Nada. Zip, zero, zilch.

Florida is gonna be a charcoal briquette in another ten days, anyway.
Quoting Grothar:
Googling is not fair guys. None of you is old enough to remember him. Come on, play fair.


Present. Any puppet with that many freckles and puffy cheeks needed their own show!
547. stormwatcherCI where did that low come from!!
Anybody ever here that music off of bejewled 2?.Their is a nice soundtrack based off of the game.
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
547. stormwatcherCI where did that low come from!!
IDK. I just saw it on there but Windsat was showing a broad low earlier today.
for the florida folks....I know Texas is dry as well as other US states....but I was in Miami today and it looks pretty dry...even saw a truck spraying water on some grass in a rounabout type thing....not even a tcu around mia mid afternoon...just smoke...its dry here in Cayman but you guys looked like a massive fire hazard! hoping you get rain soon...everglades must be dry also which doesnt help..
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Present. Any puppet with that many freckles and puffy cheeks needed their own show!


Amy, NO! Don't do it! Slowly step away from the keyboard.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
IDK. I just saw it on there but Windsat was showing a broad low earlier today.



Sorry, Ascat was showing it if I am reading it correctly.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Isn't it tomorrow?
Missed this. Now thats funny. I don't care who you are - Thats funny.
A satellite view of all of the smoke from the wildfires in Florida.

Florida needs a Fay.I just finished visiting myself,and some of the palm trees looked a little brown.If I'm not mistaken that's unhealthy for a palm tree right?
And a map of all of the fires since January 1st, and also shows those that have popped up within the past 6 hours since 5 pm ET.

The local news in Houston this evening was saying that the storms north of Panama/ Costa Rica was headed our way and they put a 40 percent chance of rain into the forecast a week from now. Are any models predicting this development or is this wishful thinking?

Quoting SETexas74:
The local news in Houston this evening was saying that the storms north of Panama/ Costa Rica was headed our way and they put a 40 percent chance of rain into the forecast a week from now. Are any models predicting this development or is this wishful thinking?
Well, the GFS has been insistent in developing a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Campeche around June 23 for the last several days. However, I doubt the origin is that area of convection near Panama, and is more likely to come from the tropical wave currently near 45W.
Link
Convection has died down as usual at this hour, but moisture migrating northward toward the NW Caribbean, maybe some good rain in store for us.
Quoting SETexas74:
The local news in Houston this evening was saying that the storms north of Panama/ Costa Rica was headed our way and they put a 40 percent chance of rain into the forecast a week from now. Are any models predicting this development or is this wishful thinking?


My locals just to your east see no development of a tropical wave but lots of rain. Hope so.

Hot & dry this weekend; RAIN beyond the 5 Day Forecast...
Posted: Jun 16, 2011 7:19 PM CDT Updated: Jun 16, 2011 7:19 PM CDT
By Patrick Vaughn
Upper level high pressure will build over the area Friday through this weekend bringing hotter weather and high Heat Indices. Mostly sunny skies are anticipated this weekend with temperatures ranging from 97 in the Triangle Saturday and Sunday and around 102 in the Lakes Area. Breezy southerly winds will transport higher moisture into the area. This will result in Heat Indices around 107.

A Tropical Wave in the Central Caribbean (which is not forecasted to develop), will bring a surge of deep atmospheric moisture and RAIN to the area Tuesday through Thursday of next week. Heavy rainfall is possible during this period. One favorite computer model drops between 2-5" over the area! Afternoon highs will be much cooler - in the lower-to-middle eighties, possible cooler thanks to cloudy skies. At this point, will go a conservative 50-60% coverage during the period, but model data shows as much as an 80% coverage especially Wednesday and Thursday.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Well, the GFS has been insistent in developing a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Campeche around June 23 for the last several days. However, I doubt the origin is that area of convection near Panama, and is more likely to come from the tropical wave currently near 45W.
What direction do you think that possible developement will go? Hypothetical of course.
570. beell
I think it's time to talk about rain for TX.

A respite from the drought over Texas is on the way. Finally, a deep and slow moving longwave trough will be swinging out of the Rockies around Monday. Something strong enough to break the ridge and allow deep layer moisture return out of the Gulf. It may only get better towards the end of the week as the low associated with the trough moves ever so slowly towards the Great Lakes-keeping the Gulf open and the western extension of the A/B ridge over the gulf and SE states pushed to the east-just a little. That's all we need.

Around this same time frame, a return of the monsoonal circulation over the western Caribbean and Bay of Campeche. With the mid and upper low still somewhat stationary over the upper midwest, moisture associated with the monsoon, and a well-timed tropical wave will be free to move up into TX on the wings of strong low-level southerly flow. Sound like a plan?

If the low and trough move out quicker the ridge will most likely rebuild over TX and part two of this rainmaker may not come to fruition. I think the boyz at HGX will be happy to be wrong about some of the ECMWF solutions that depict a quicker return of the ridge.

It will come at the expense of a multi-day severe potential for the Plains States, the Midwest, and into the Ohio Valley beginning as early as Monday.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link
Convection has died down as usual at this hour, but moisture migrating northward toward the NW Caribbean, maybe some good rain in store for us.
I sure hope so.
I hope they're wrong about the ridge building back so quickly too. Who knows though. I like the optimistic rain slicker Beell :)
Quoting scott39:
What direction do you think that possible developement will go? Hypothetical of course.
I'm thinking Corpus Christi for a landfall point, with a gentle recurvature to the northeast after landfall. It really depends on the evolution of the large scale troughing forecast to affect the western US at that time (and also the vertical depth of the possible tropical cyclone in question).
Well this sends it to Mexico. Sigh.

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
MON TO THE COAST OF MEXICO TUE. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF PORTIONS.
575. beell
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
I hope they're wrong about the ridge building back so quickly too. Who knows though. I like the optimistic rain slicker Beell :)


We need all the help we can get, Athome!
Quoting beell:


We need all the help we can get, Athome!


Yes we do! :)
577. beell
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Well this sends it to Mexico. Sigh.

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
MON TO THE COAST OF MEXICO TUE. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF PORTIONS.


And keep the faith. That may be round one with another chance toward the weekend.
Quoting beell:


And keep the faith. That may be round one with another chance toward the weekend.


Ah ok. I'm still keeping hope alive. :)
581. Tygor
It's so funny how the possibility of rain 7-10 days from now is the biggest piece of conversation amongst everyone in San Antonio. We actually saw some clouds this morning which was something different than the punishing yellow face in the sky. Just the thought that rain and clouds could actually be coming literally has everyone giddy for excitement.
Rain would be great, ecspecially if the wave doesn't develop and we get 2-5"! An area rainfall gauge says we've recieved only 0.04" of rain in the past 2 months, and our neighborhood started water rationing this week. Any rain would really be a blessing, as will cooler weather!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Present. Any puppet with that many freckles and puffy cheeks needed their own show!

I've even met the guy whose voice they used for Howdie Doodie.
And we didn't get any of the rain forecasted for this evening.
I like this one better. Yes, I'm cherry picking. lol

MID LEVEL BREAK IN THE EPAC AND WEST ATLC/GULFMEX RIDGING SEEN IN
GUIDANCE AND ENS MEAN LATE PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A NWD
SHIFT IN VORTICITY MAXIMA COMING NWD ALONG THE ERN MEXICAN COAST
INTO TX/LA. THIS HAS BEEN A RECURRING MODEL FEATURE FOR MORE THAN
SEVERAL DAYS AND WOULD PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL BUT REMAINS SUSPECT AT THIS TIME RANGE.
ROTH/ROSENSTEIN
Quoting Bielle:

I've even met the guy whose voice they used for Howdie Doodie.
And we didn't get any of the rain forecasted for this evening.


Sorry about the spelling: Canadian, you know. We do things differently up here.
Quoting largeeyes:
60% down to 50% down to 40%....sigh


now 30%..... :(
Quoting SETexas74:
Rain would be great, ecspecially if the wave doesn't develop and we get 2-5"! An area rainfall gauge says we've recieved only 0.04" of rain in the past 2 months, and our neighborhood started water rationing this week. Any rain would really be a blessing, as will cooler weather!


It would be a blessing. We haven't started water rationing yet. But they said today that we should voluntarily cut usage so we wouldn't have to ration. And rain before July 4th would be great! No matter what bans are in place someone will shoot off fire works.
Quoting CatfishJones:
Sorry if this has already been posted...


What is this? I appreciate your sharing but what is going on here?
Quoting druseljic:


What is this? I appreciate your sharing but what is going on here?
A lake in Chile. Layered in ash. With a man scuba diving in it, for some reason unbeknownst to me.
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
tropical development
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EDT THU JUNE 16 2011

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 22 - 26 2011

THE WEAKNESS FORECAST IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPECTED OVER TEXAS IN TODAYS SOLUTIONS HAS LEAD TO A WETTER
FORECAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.


THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE FORECAST
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG PARTS OF THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST COASTS FOR WEEK 2 DUE TO
INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACTIVITY
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE PERIOD. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS ASPECT
OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LONG LEAD TIME FOR A RELATIVELY SMALL SCALE FEATURE.
long time lurker here, I have a question about the farmers almanac. Has anyone followed it enough to see how accurate it is when it comes to hurricane threats to a particular area? Like this year it says a hurricane threat for the week of June 21-24 for Florida (minus the panhandle) and a threat July 24-27 for the deep south (including the panhandle)Just curious as to how accurate it is. Thanks
Quoting Jebekarue:
long time lurker here, I have a question about the farmers almanac. Has anyone followed it enough to see how accurate it is when it comes to hurricane threats to a particular area? Like this year it says a hurricane threat for the week of June 21-24 for Florida (minus the panhandle) and a threat July 24-27 for the deep south (including the panhandle)Just curious as to how accurate it is. Thanks


I can't help with this, but I'm pretty sure it's Skyepony who I have seen posting stuff based on the Farmer's Almanac.
Quoting CatfishJones:
A lake in Chile. Layered in ash. With a man scuba diving in it, for some reason unbeknownst to me.
Glad to see that I'm not the only one who arrives late to the party. Think that was one of the topics last night.
Cantore tweet

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
4 miles north of Coats, KS. reports of 80mph measured wind gust. Stormy weather heading into Witchita, KS area now.
Quoting Jebekarue:
long time lurker here, I have a question about the farmers almanac. Has anyone followed it enough to see how accurate it is when it comes to hurricane threats to a particular area? Like this year it says a hurricane threat for the week of June 21-24 for Florida (minus the panhandle) and a threat July 24-27 for the deep south (including the panhandle)Just curious as toope how accurate it is. Thanks
About as accurate as the daily horoscope. Written in generalities broad enough you can't prove them wrong but a mistake to plan your life around.
Quoting Jebekarue:
long time lurker here, I have a question about the farmers almanac. Has anyone followed it enough to see how accurate it is when it comes to hurricane threats to a particular area? Like this year it says a hurricane threat for the week of June 21-24 for Florida (minus the panhandle) and a threat July 24-27 for the deep south (including the panhandle)Just curious as to how accurate it is. Thanks


FWIW in 2009 they predicted 2 major hurricanes hitting the TX/LA border in September, I think.
Evening all. Here is a picture of the tornado that formed and almost touched down in southern Nassau yesterday....



I was several miles away, but was able to see the funnel and it's rotation quite clearly. Unfortunately I didn't have my camera with me... the person who took this picture was much closer.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all. Here is a picture of the tornado that formed and almost touched down in southern Nassau yesterday....



I was several miles away, but was able to see the funnel and it's rotation quite clearly. Unfortunately I didn't have my camera with me... the person who took this picture was much closer.


Wow! Great pic!
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2011
5:30 AM IST June 17 2011
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression BOB02-2011 over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh remained practically stationary and lays centered over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh near 22.5N 89.0E, or about 130 km northeast of Sagar Island, 80 km east of Kolkata and 150 km west-northwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh.

The system is likely to move north-northwestwards initially and then west-northwestwards and weaken gradually into a depression during next 24 hours.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Glad to see that I'm not the only one who arrives late to the party. Think that was one of the topics last night.


I am a master of the late arrival; I was meant for Europe in the mid-late 19th century. But here I stand, wondering how the world allowed the Jackson Pollacks to pave the way for the invalid to steal bread from the genius.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


FWIW in 2009 they predicted 2 major hurricanes hitting the TX/LA border in September, I think.

Thanks Athome....I guess that would be Gustav and Ike?
Quoting Jebekarue:

Thanks Athome....I guess that would be Gustav and Ike?


Gustav and Ike were in 2008.

EDIT: My dad has been following the Farmer's Almanac since 2006. In my experience, they aren't very accurate. Their methods are not scientific.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all. Here is a picture of the tornado that formed and almost touched down in southern Nassau yesterday....



I was several miles away, but was able to see the funnel and it's rotation quite clearly. Unfortunately I didn't have my camera with me... the person who took this picture was much closer.


Wow! I bet that's a rare sight for you guys. Unreal.
Quoting Jebekarue:

Thanks Athome....I guess that would be Gustav and Ike?


Oh yw. No Gus and Ike were in 2008. I got to say though, after all the hurricanes we had around here by 2008 that wasn't a bad guess on their part. lol
XX/XX/XX
T-WAV
MARK
9.8N48.17W



nice wave good energy
Quoting KoritheMan:


Wow! I bet that's a rare sight for you guys. Unreal.


Indeed,not common to see them in those islands,similar to PR,where sometimes some waterspouts appear and a handfull have formed inland,albeit small ones.
Quoting CatfishJones:


I am a master of the late arrival; I was meant for Europe in the mid-late 19th century. But here I stand, wondering how the world allowed the Jackson Pollacks to pave the way for the invalid to steal bread from the genius.

Actualy I have to stand up for Jackson Pollack. I had a friend who told me I could not go any further into the Museum of Modern art in NYC until I managed to see Guernica in 3D. I spent weeks standing in front of the thing. Then one day boom!!! I was standing in the middle of the scene. It was all happening around me, Picasso was messing around with perspective in ways one can not understand until you experience it. Had the same experience with Pollock. Can't explain it but until you've stood for a wile in front of an original you have no idea whats going on and then often you don't get it until several tries. Now if you were trashing Andy Warhol I might let you slide and WTH this has to do with weather I'll never tell. Must be a modern art thing
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:

Actualy I have to stand up for Jackson Pollack. I had a friend who told me I could not go any further into the Museum of Modern art in NYC until I managed to see Guernica in 3D. I spent weeks standing in front of the thing. Then one day boom!!! I was standing in the middle of the scene. It was all happening around me, Picasso was messing around with perspective in ways one can not understand until you experience it. Had the same experience with Pollock. Can't explain it but until you've stood for a wile in front of an original you have no idea whats going on and then often you don't get it until several tries. Now if you were trashing Andy Warhol I might let you slide and WTH this has to do with weather I'll never tell. Must be a modern art thing



One of his paintings was called "Summertime", does that count?
Quoting Grothar:



One of his paintings was called "Summertime", does that count?
Hey! You might have saved me.

Probably should have said a Zen thing.

What did the Dali Lama say to the hot dog vendor?

Make me one with everything.

It's all connected somehow.
I couldn't sleep and decided to check in. It is like walking into a Saint-Exupery novel.
Quoting Grothar:
I couldn't sleep and decided to check in. It is like walking into a Saint-Exupery novel.


LOL
Quoting Grothar:



One of his paintings was called "Summertime", does that count?


He was a neighbor of my mother's on Long Island. Very strange genius type.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/XX/XX
T-WAV
MARK
9.8N48.17W



nice wave good energy
that wave need to be watch!!
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hey! You might have saved me.



I did. Wasn't Pollock really "into" his paintings? LOL
Quoting caneswatch:


LOL


And what are you doing up at this hour?
Where is the night shift?
Quoting Grothar:
Where is the night shift?


They're around.
Hi all from southwest Louisiana. Have been reading the blog this eve, and I am thrilled at the tiny glimmer of hope that we may have rain next week. We are also bone dry here, and its downright brown everywhere. I've given up on the grass, etc and have resorted to praying the yard doesn't burst into flames. Even the poor birds and squirrels are desperate, sharing the dog water bowl with the dog right there!
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hey! You might have saved me.

Probably should have said a Zen thing.

What did the Dali Lama say to the hot dog vendor?

Make me one with everything.

It's all connected somehow.


Hey Shen, I just heard that Homer's Odyssey wasn't really written by Homer, but by another guy with the same name. What do think?
Quoting Grothar:


And what are you doing up at this hour?


The joys of a long summer LOL
Quoting CybrTeddy:


They're around.


Thank goodness, a familiar nerd. I mean fellow blogger.
Nothing to really look at right now, but the monsoon winds in the EPAC moving towards the SW Caribbean may support the development of the low over water. Probability is low since the actual favorable region for development is pretty small until shear lifts north.

Quoting SwLAlawchick:
Hi all from southwest Louisiana. Have been reading the blog this eve, and I am thrilled at the tiny glimmer of hope that we may have rain next week. We are also bone dry here, and its downright brown everywhere. I've given up on the grass, etc and have resorted to praying the yard doesn't burst into flames. Even the poor birds and squirrels are desperate, sharing the dog water bowl with the dog right there!


Fort Lauderdale has only had 4 inches of rain in the past 6 months. We should be over 25 by now. I don't think it will ever rain again. Good luck with your rain.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey Shen, I just heard that Homer's Odyssey wasn't really written by Homer, but by another guy with the same name. What do think?

Probably a bunch of monkeys with sticks and wet clay.
631. DDR
Quoting Grothar:


Fort Lauderdale has only had 4 inches of rain in the past 6 months. We should be over 25 by now. I don't think it will ever rain again. Good luck with your rain.

wow... now thats dry
Something wicked this way comes.
Quoting Grothar:


Fort Lauderdale has only had 4 inches of rain in the past 6 months. We should be over 25 by now. I don't think it will ever rain again. Good luck with your rain.

We all need a nice steady slow soaker, Texas to Florida. Watched it rain last week for 5 minutes in the parking lot at work......was so odd, just moved on quickly and quit. The whole shower was Just in the lot. Reminds me...local news was talking about home foundations cracking in this dry heat. Another thing to try and water while we are being limited on use.
634. JRRP
635. MTWX
Quoting Grothar:
Where is the night shift?

Some of us are here... Just checking in for a minute to see what I had missed today. By the way it finally rained here! Only 1/10 of an inch, but every little bit counts doesn't it?
Quoting alfabob:
Nothing to really look at right now, but the monsoon winds in the EPAC moving towards the SW Caribbean may support the development of the low over water. Probability is low since the actual favorable region for development is pretty small until shear lifts north.

Well one thing to look at is the fact that the MOJO is back!!



well maybe not completely. But upward motion has returned. Here was the MJO map yesterday



quite an improvement
Quoting Grothar:


Fort Lauderdale has only had 4 inches of rain in the past 6 months. We should be over 25 by now. I don't think it will ever rain again. Good luck with your rain.


You were around when Florida used to be underwater right? How was that like?
Quoting RTLSNK:
Something wicked this way comes.


all that red and yellow over the Okeefenokee looks pretty good
Quoting KoritheMan:

Respectfully, no. The convection there is being generated by the divergent (eastern) region of the tropical wave that could ultimately spark development of East Pacific Invest 92E:


I agree the area of convection N of Panama isn't a concern, but I'm not sure I agree its a result of the divergent (eastern) region of the T wave. I thought it was just the heat low from Columbia extending over the ocean.



I guess the wave would improve upper divergence somewhat

Quoting DDR:

wow... now thats dry


I had a feeling that this was going to happen soon. He claims that he came from Grothar's house.


Link
Quoting presslord:


all that red and yellow over the Okeefenokee looks pretty good


Yes, if it puts that fire out, Aqua might have clear skies again.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Well one thing to look at is the fact that the MOJO is back!!
not over much of our basin, but upward motion has returned. Here was the MJO map yesterday
quite an improvement

Yea I've been waiting for the upwards motion, should be right over us by the 19th-20th. It seems that we are on the shorter side in terms of the length the waves are propagating, I'm counting around 20-25 days between each. Usual range is 30-60 days, although the MJO phase graphs will have a difficult time picking it up since it is so spread out. Either this one will begin to intensify and move quickly or its going to be in this area for a while with moderate strength, to hard to tell right now; current trends go with the first though.
This shows two individual MJOs propagating.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services And Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EGAY
11:00 AM PhST June 17 2011
=======================================

Tropical Depresssion "EGAY" has maintained its strength as it continues to move northwestward.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Egay located at 10.3°N 128.5°E or 300 km east of Surigao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Additional Information
======================
TD "Egay" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and will bring rains over Mindanao and Eastern Visayas.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today and the hourly updates.
Quoting alfabob:

Yea I've been waiting for the upwards motion, should be right over us by the 19th-20th. It seems that we are on the shorter side in terms of the length the waves are propagating, I'm counting around 20-25 days between each. Usual range is 30-60 days, although the MJO phase graphs will have a difficult time picking it up since it is so spread out. Either this one will begin to intensify and move quickly or its going to be in this area for a while with moderate strength, to hard to tell right now; current trends go with the first though.
idk, I just hope the gfs forecast (or something similar) comes true. Texas needs the rain and what can I say I am a weather enthusiast, I wanna see something develop!
Blog sure is dead right now. I know its 1am eastern, but there's usually more activity than this...
Quoting PcolaDan:


I can't help with this, but I'm pretty sure it's Skyepony who I have seen posting stuff based on the Farmer's Almanac.


I keep the Farmer's Almanac Moon Gardening Calender in my blog. Sometimes the best days calender for fun. The daily weather isn't the least bit reliable. The storms, are figured in from space weather to an extent. Occasionally one or two hits. I think more storms are predicted than hit & plenty aren't predicted at all (Like 2004). Here's their rundown on how great they are at forecasting storms.
MJO is weak & on the move..
Storms in South GA are so close to that big fire smokin out JAX.
MJO index may be showing up weak but there are a few areas with moderate to strong 200mb anomalies. Just think it would make more sense if they started plotting multiple lines when there are individual areas of MJO activity.
Quoting TomTaylor:
I agree the area of convection N of Panama isn't a concern, but I'm not sure I agree its a result of the divergent (eastern) region of the T wave. I thought it was just the heat low from Columbia extending over the ocean.



I guess the wave would improve upper divergence somewhat



Yeah. That's probably what I should have said: the wave is interacting with the semipermanent Colombian heat low, generating convection in the region that appears to be significant but is not.
You don't see so many strong storms when the MJO is spread thin/in the middle of the circle like that. No surprise we have 3 invests & 1 depression spread across the seas. It definitely can be challenging to picture in head like the global map that graph but I think is an easier way for the models to process & convey a forecast.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:

Probably a bunch of monkeys with sticks and wet clay.


No, that was much earlier, Gilgamesh written in cuneform.
Quoting alfabob:
MJO index may be showing up weak but there are a few areas with moderate to strong 200mb anomalies. Just think it would make more sense if they started plotting multiple lines when there are individual areas of MJO activity.
yea it just doesn't make sense to model the MJO as if there was only one possible region of upward motion when the fact is there can be multiple large regions of upward motion.

There is only one dynamic model run I know of that doesn't display the MJO as occurring in one area. Idk what the name of the model is, but here's the forecast




Nonetheless, here are all the other dynamic forecasts



Quoting Skyepony:
You don't see so many strong storms when the MJO is spread thin/in the middle of the circle like that. No surprise we have 3 invests & 1 depression spread across the seas. It definitely can be challenging to picture in head like the global map that graph but I think is an easier way for the models to process & convey a forecast.

Yea if that one "XTRAP" model ends up happening then it won't be too productive; but it could also go in the other direction with the activity to the west decreasing and a quick uptrend occurring here like previously. Not 100% sure on how the models process it though, but I would think they use a 2-d or 3-d data-set for winds and what not. Probably just easier to develop an analysis plot by doing a zonal average, so if there are up-trends on opposite sides it shows no signal.
Quoting Torgen:


No, that was much earlier, Gilgamesh written in cuneform.
;)
Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies for the last 90 days (bottom image)




Gives you an idea where the most intense convection has been going on and where the MJO has been hanging out strongest
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah. That's probably what I should have said: the wave is interacting with the semipermanent Colombian heat low, generating convection in the region that appears to be significant but is not.
ok gotcha
Looking at the motion of 500mb vorticity, I can see that we are now at the point where the invests start showing up. Tropical wave is interacting with monsoon trough which is showing up on 850mb now, this isn't the Colombian low.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2011
8:30 AM IST June 17 2011
===================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression BOB02-2011 over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh remained practically stationary and lays centered over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh near 22.5N 89.0E, or about 130 km northeast of Sagar Island, 80 km east of Kolkata and 150 km west-northwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh).

The system is likely to move north-northwestwards initially and then west-northwestwards and weaken gradually.

3 minute sustained winds near the center along and off West Bengal - Bangladesh coast is 25-30 knots with a central pressure of 984 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough along and off West Bengal - Bangladesh coast. Associated broken moderate to intense convection (lowest cloud top temperature -70C) lies over Bay of Bengal to the north of 19.0N and west of 92.5E.
Well looks like my comments got -ed to hell for no reason again.

I haven't made any bad posts. All I did was mention Nea's posts being unnecessarily -ed and look where I am now!

Wunderground has some truly great posters, too bad there is a small group of posters which ruin it for everybody else in between.
RSMC Miami National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 PM PDT June 16 2011
======================================

A broad area low pressure located several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has not been producing concentrated shower and thunderstorm activity for the last day or so.. however, the low level circulation is slowly becoming better defined and environmental conditions still appear generally conducive for development during the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
There is a MODERATE chance of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05
15:00 PM JST June 17 2011
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 10.7N 128.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 13.2N 126.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Additional Information
=======================
Tropical Depression will move at the same speed for the next 24 hours

Tropical Depression will move northwest for the next 24 hours

Tropical Depression will be upgraded to Tropical Storm within 24 hours

Tropical Depression will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final Initial Dvorak T Number will be 2.5 after 24 hours
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2011
11:30 AM IST June 17 2011
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression BOB02-2011 over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh moved slightly northwestwards and lays centered over Gangetic West Bengal near 22.8N 88.5E, or about 30 km northeast of Kolkata.

The system is likely to move northwestwards for some time and then west-northwestwards and weaken gradually.
Just a note about a possible new level of activity coming in the African ash cloud volcano from an earthquake site:-
UPDATE 17/06 %u2013 09:47 UTC : A strong M5.5 earthquake has occurred in a similar position on 17th June 2011, this is expected to also indicate volcanic activity from Nabro again. We will wait for confirmation.''

As Nea. was commenting last night this volcano deserves some attention from the media.I think it should be at least top end of significant to the Middle east and oil/shipping routes!
At least someone is getting rain this morning.
Quoting alfabob:
Looking at the motion of 500mb vorticity, I can see that we are now at the point where the invests start showing up. Tropical wave is interacting with monsoon trough which is showing up on 850mb now, this isn't the Colombian low.
nothing is written in stone
I wonder if the Swamp Fire is out?
g'morning RTL

one of'm is the honey prarie fire, no it's not out, it stinks here already this morning. Worse than yesterday. It's mentioned in our HWO, smoke possibly reducing vis here to less than a mile AGAIN..

But we did have a small mcs pull thru overnite so maybe it's kinda smouldering some too

man I do not want another repeat of wednesday
Morning Aqua, it looks like the storm west of Nashville is dropping south now.
The chance of it making it all the way to your house is probably slim. :(
hahaha

no I don't think nashville's rain is gonna make it here
and you are way too far inland to hope for seabreeze interaction

I guess the sun has risen(?) but we are too smoked in to tell?
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning RTL

one of'm is the honey prarie fire, no it's not out, it stinks here already this morning. Worse than yesterday. It's mentioned in our HWO, smoke possibly reducing vis here to less than a mile AGAIN..

But we did have a small mcs pull thru overnite so maybe it's kinda smouldering some too

man I do not want another repeat of wednesday

I was looking at the Intellicast 10-day for Valdosta which is, of course, not so very far from you (I was thinking of visiting some friends there next week):

102
100
102
102
102
103
103
101
101
99 (a cooling trend!)

UV Index for today: 11 (Extreme)

Sorry about that. As a consolation, winter starts in just six months. :-\
Valdosta has a pretty nice, not-too-crowded theme park called Wild Adventures. Dau enjoys it.

C'mon Nea, it's not the heat, it's the humidity, hahaha - -it was 98º here a coupla days ago, 31% humidity, felt quite bearable.

Valdosta is not far from Tallahassee, too, and they hit 105º the other day.

Isn't it still spring?
675. IKE
Latest 6Z GFS @ 204 hours.....woohoo!!!!!!

I'm a believer!!!!!!!!


the tropical wave at 45 west still holding its t.storm with it.
I thought it was, "It's not the heat, it's the smoke."
The big picture:

wow!! nice tropicval wave
Who said you can't teach an old dog new tricks.
Did't get anyting yesterday in Crestview, not even the smell of rain. How about you Ike? Did they hold long enough to get your way?
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:


I guess the wave train is starting early.
robust tropical wave near 50W this morning. the wave has increase in convection this morning asit moves WNW. there is moderate 850mb vorticity. there also appears to be weak cyclonic turning at the mid levels, near 9N 50W. there is also 20 knots SW wind shear ,which is stalling any further development. there is little convergence while there is considerable upper divergence. while it is not expected to develop this wave will bring showers and thunder showers and gusty winds to barbados the windward islands by sat afternoon. this wave if it continues with such organisation could be a catalyst for some form of development in the western caribbean during the latter part of next week
Rising water, falling journalism, on the Fort Calhoun Nuclear Power Station.
lots of energy in the carib. presently and the weak tropical wave moving west might absorb it and become stronger hopes rule rules though
Good Morning and Happy Father's Day Weekend folks.....Atlantic tropics looking pretty "norrmal" this morning for mid-June as E-Pac continues on the move.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Rising water, falling journalism, on the Fort Calhoun Nuclear Power Station.


Interesting article but the author seems to be implying that the media should be speculating on what's going on. It seems like, while there is a concern, there is really nothing dangerous happening at the moment. Why is it a good idea for the media to hype what could happen? Especially given the situation in Japan. Hype and speculation would certainly create panic.

This secion in particular bothered me:
"OPPD reported that "offsite power remained available, as well as the emergency diesel generators if needed." But the incident was yet another reminder of the plant's potential vulnerability."

How is having two backup options that worked a reminder of vulnerability? Shouldn't that be a reminder of the plant's safety features?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Rising water, falling journalism, on the Fort Calhoun Nuclear Power Station.


Thanks for posting this link, this is the most comprehensive reporting I have seen on the Fort Calhoun situation.
Quoting BobinTampa:


Interesting article but the author seems to be implying that the media should be speculating on what's going on. It seems like, while there is a concern, there is really nothing dangerous happening at the moment. Why is it a good idea for the media to hype what could happen? Especially given the situation in Japan. Hype and speculation would certainly create panic.

This secion in particular bothered me:
"OPPD reported that "offsite power remained available, as well as the emergency diesel generators if needed." But the incident was yet another reminder of the plant's potential vulnerability."

How is having two backup options that worked a reminder of vulnerability? Shouldn't that be a reminder of the plant's safety features?


I got the opposite from the article, not that the media should be speculating, but providing more detail.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I got the opposite from the article, not that the media should be speculating, but providing more detail.



But it seems like we have all the details. Right now there is nothing happening. Water is rising but there isn't really a crisis. What do we need to know that we don't already? An article on what would happen in an absolute worst-case scenario? That would by hype and speculation.

Plus, a lack of 'stories' doesn't necessarily mean a lack of 'coverage.' I'm sure there are reporters that are on the case and ready to report new information. There just might not be anything to report right now.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Good morning!


Blog is dead. you better post the 1440 hour model runs to liven things up.
Quoting BobinTampa:



But it seems like we have all the details. Right now there is nothing happening. Water is rising but there isn't really a crisis. What do we need to know that we don't already? An article on what would happen in an absolute worst-case scenario? That would by hype and speculation.

Plus, a lack of 'stories' doesn't necessarily mean a lack of 'coverage.' I'm sure there are reporters that are on the case and ready to report new information. There just might not be anything to report right now.


The coverage the last few days has been full of rumors, such that the power district put up a page on their website. As CRS posted, that was the most comprehensive overview of the situation that I had seen.
Quoting BobinTampa:


Blog is dead. you better post the 1440 hour model runs to liven things up.


Should we do a test elevation of the DOOMcon index to shake things up?
Morning all. Just a very quick check in. I have graduation to attend this morning, so I won't be going to work until afterwards. Of course, it will be hard to check the blog while I'm doing that, but .... I will do my best.... lol

It's fairly cloudy here, almost hazy, but nothing actually wet falling from the sky. Yesterday afternoon we had another thunderstorm complex pass through.... it's sort of like the rainy season, only not in the "normal" parts of town for this time of year..... freaky....

Hope somebody in the South gets rain today, esp. TX and FL....
Quoting Grothar:


Anybody remember Buffalo Bob on here, besides me?


Heck, you probably remember Buffalo BILL...
06z GFS continues to try to develop a system in the BOC, 00z CMC has a system off the US East coast. No other models show development in the next 240 hours or so.
699. MTWX
Quoting RTLSNK:
At least someone is getting rain this morning.

Keep coming south!!! Keep coming south!!!
Incredible drought conditions continue across the entire region with several cities now starting mandatory and voluntary water restrictions effective today.



Extreme wildfire danger remains in place today through the weekend along with record high temperatures this weekend.



However hope appears on the horizon as the tropics look to come to live over the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Discussion:

It is brutal with the heat and dryness and vegetation, even large trees, are starting to suffer with the lack of rainfall. Upper level ridging over MX will build over TX over the next 24 hours with surface temperatures increasing into the low 100%u2019s during the afternoon hours likely breaking records. Strong winds have returned to the region resulting in warm overnight lows and afternoon dewpoints south of I-10 have not been mixing out much forcing heat index values toward 104-107 or just shy of heat advisory criteria. North of I-10 mixing as allowing afternoon RH to fall to near 35% supporting extreme fire weather concerns with the gusty southerly winds.



Expect very warm conditions over the weekend with highs into the 100%u2019s and lows near 80 with no rainfall. Starting Monday the stubborn upper ridge shifts far to the northeast of the area as a trough plowing across the north plains. The tail end of this trough will break off and create a shear axis or weakness across the state of TX lowering mid level heights and reducing the capping. At the same time the tropical wave currently in the central Caribbean Sea will surge NW across the Gulf of Mexico toward this weakness in the height field. PWS of 2.0-2.4 inches will move NW from the Yucatan and toward the TX coast by Tuesday.



Air mass becomes very tropical by late Tuesday as PWS start to exceed the magic 2.0 inch range. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop on this surge of deep moisture Tuesday afternoon as the air mass goes uncapped and trigger temperatures fall to the mid 80%u2019s. Wednesday and Thursday look like the wettest days as PWS peak in the 2.2-2.4 inch range supporting the threat of widespread heavy rainfall. GFS attempts to develop a surface low pressure reflection off the NE MX coast around the middle of the week and moves this feature northward into the shear axis over TX and inland around Matagorda Bay. At this time will keep the tropical wave axis as an open wave and not close off a surface low, but it is possible that some weak tropical development could spin up near the coast toward the middle/end of next week.



At this point given the multiple model runs showing this event feel rain chances will start on Tuesday and really ramp up on Wednesday and Thursday. Will go with 50% for Wednesday and Thursday for now as we must not forget how hard rain has been to come by over the past several months however if models continue to show this event then chances will need to be pushed into the 70-80% range by early next week. Finger are crossed.



Drought/Heat:



BUSH IAH has already recorded 4 100 degree days this June, typically we record 100 only 3 times in a whole year.

Crockett has reached 100 11 times in June and Huntsville 8

As of today June 2011 is the warmest ever record at IAH, Hobby, and Galveston.



Houston has now endured 4 months without an inch of rainfall%u2026this has never happened before.

Hobby Airport has had 1 day of rainfall (.19 of an inch) out of the last 92 days.



The period from Oct 2010 to June 16, 2011 is that driest period ever recorded at IAH and Hobby shattering the previous records



IAH: 12.84 inches of rainfall (old record 15.05 inches in 1917)

Hobby: 16.07 inches of rainfall (old record 16.97 inches in 1956)

College Station: Second driest behind 1925 (1925: 9.15 in, 2011: 9.79 inches, 1917: 13.52 inches)



Based on the rainfall data above this is likely the most severe short term drought ever experienced in the City of Houston weather history.



It is even more astounding when looking at the period from Feb-June 2011. This period has been incredibly dry.



IAH: 2.02 (2011) previous record 5.48 (1996). 2011 for this period has 11.5% of its rainfall.

Hobby: 1.31 (2011) previous record 4.99 (1963). 2011 for this period has 7.3% of its rainfall



Quoting TampaTom:


Should we do a test elevation of the DOOMcon index to shake things up?
If you do the test please keep it local. Don't want your test to wake up the chickens! :)
Quoting BobinTampa:
But it seems like we have all the details.

And perhaps we do. But as Fukushima has demonstrated, that sentence could be amended thusly: "it seems like we have all the details they want us to have". Much as TEPCO and the Japanese government admittedly downplayed--and continue to do so--the situation at Fukushima primarily to protect that nation's nuclear industry, our only sources of info about Fort Calhoun are the utility that runs the plant, and the U.S. Government organization charged with promoting the use of nuclear.

Quoting BobinTampa:
...a lack of 'stories' doesn't necessarily mean a lack of 'coverage.'

That is very true. But as we have seen in many other instances, a lack of 'stories' can also definitely mean an intentional lack--or, worse, denial--of coverage.

The thing is, where there's smoke, there really isn't always fire; the situation at Fort Calhoun may be completely under control as we are being told. But as the ongoing catastrophe in Fukushima continues to unfold, the whole world has seen many people with ties to Big Nuclear constantly telling us how it's really no big deal, it'll be cleaned up in a few months, and to just go on about our business--only to be proven wronger and wronger at each turn. Bottom line: the nuclear industry has earned its reputation; it's earned our suspicion and disbelief in it; it's earned our lack of faith in its ability to be honest.

(By the way: the Japanese government announced today that it is expanding the evacuation zone around Fukushima in places to include areas up to 70 kilometers from the plant. As one teenager who now faces evacuation put it, "The radiation levels have been high from the very start, so I wish the government had made the decision faster.")
Quoting TampaTom:


Should we do a test elevation of the DOOMcon index to shake things up?


couldn't hurt. Either that or start the 'season is a bust' stuff.

There's not even anything out there for Ike to downcast!
It's getting CRAZY here in TX,


Rainfall Deficits since last October:



Bellville: -21.74

Brenham: -21.01

College Station: -19.80

Columbus: -22.02

Conroe: -22.31

Freeport: -18.78

Hobby: -19.64

IAH: -20.74

Huntsville: -23.71

Katy: -19.08

Matagorda: -18.72

New Caney: -19.37

Tomball: -25.24


65% of the state of TX is now in exceptional drought or the worst category on the US Drought Monitor. With 89% in extreme or exceptional at staggering amount of land area. All SE TX counties except Houston County and Jackson County are classified in exceptional drought with Houston and Jackson in extreme drought.

So far for 2011 the drought has resulted in 1.4 billion dollars in crop and cattle losses across TX

Numerous wildfires continue to develop across the region. The KBDI index now exceeds 700 in 11 SE TX counties on the scale of 0-800 (0=saturated and 800=no moisture). Harris County has a value of 734 and Montgomery County 745. Brazoria County has moved to 747. Values of these magnitudes support explosive fire growth and rapid dying of vegetation including grasses, shrubs, and large trees. All 23 counties in SE TX have burn bans in place with 215 across the state out of 254 counties. Vegetation health is beyond poor in un-irrigated locations and numerous trees including Oaks, Pines, and Palms are dying from lack of rainfall.



Water Restrictions:

The City of Galveston and League City enacted stage 3 drought plans yesterday with now mandatory water restrictions in place. Residents watering outside of the determined days and times will be subject to fines.



Quoting IKE:
Latest 6Z GFS @ 204 hours.....woohoo!!!!!!

I'm a believer!!!!!!!!


Decent moisture and spin with the wave in the Caribbean..
There's not even anything out there for Ike to downcast!

hahahah- that's when you KNOW it's bad!
Quoting BobinTampa:


couldn't hurt. Either that or start the 'season is a bust' stuff.

There's not even anything out there for Ike to downcast!


LMAO... that indeed is a bad sign.

With all these MCS's tracking over the Missouri & Mississippi Rivers, what are we looking at down the road with the Mississippi from the point where the Missouri dumps in and south? It's looking as if there are going to get round two this season.
Maybe walt will come back with some volcano anger to stir things up.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05
21:00 PM JST June 17 2011
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 11.7N 127.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.3N 125.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting RitaEvac:
It's getting CRAZY here in TX,


Rainfall Deficits since last October:



Bellville: -21.74

Brenham: -21.01

College Station: -19.80

Columbus: -22.02

Conroe: -22.31

Freeport: -18.78

Hobby: -19.64

IAH: -20.74

Huntsville: -23.71

Katy: -19.08

Matagorda: -18.72

New Caney: -19.37

Tomball: -25.24


65% of the state of TX is now in exceptional drought or the worst category on the US Drought Monitor. With 89% in extreme or exceptional at staggering amount of land area. All SE TX counties except Houston County and Jackson County are classified in exceptional drought with Houston and Jackson in extreme drought.

So far for 2011 the drought has resulted in 1.4 billion dollars in crop and cattle losses across TX

Numerous wildfires continue to develop across the region. The KBDI index now exceeds 700 in 11 SE TX counties on the scale of 0-800 (0=saturated and 800=no moisture). Harris County has a value of 734 and Montgomery County 745. Brazoria County has moved to 747. Values of these magnitudes support explosive fire growth and rapid dying of vegetation including grasses, shrubs, and large trees. All 23 counties in SE TX have burn bans in place with 215 across the state out of 254 counties. Vegetation health is beyond poor in un-irrigated locations and numerous trees including Oaks, Pines, and Palms are dying from lack of rainfall.



Water Restrictions:

The City of Galveston and League City enacted stage 3 drought plans yesterday with now mandatory water restrictions in place. Residents watering outside of the determined days and times will be subject to fines.




I did some quick math. Let's say the entire state of Texas is, on average, about 18" below normal; that seems like a safe estimate after looking at the above numbers. That means to bring the state up to normal, a bit over 84 trillion gallons of water is needed.

That's a lot.

That's as much water as 140 million Olymic-size pools.

That's nearly 70% of what Lake Erie holds.

That's as much water as the Mississippi River discharges in 200 days.
The big SAL outbreak is going to last through October and kill the season............... :)
Quoting DestinJeff:
Season may be slow now, but there is a pattern change coming around the end of the month or beginning of next month that should really start making things interesting.

(those kind of vague, inflammatory predictions usually always get things going 'round here)

3....2....1....
As far as gettin things going, nothin ever has, or ever will surpass the omnipotent, powerful and mighty shrine-graph. Put simple, nothing that has ever existed in the universe compares with it.
The hairs on the back of Taz's neck just stood up
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI







Yo Mate, what happened to the Cunucks? Anyway, there is always next year, just hope we make it through this hurricane season 1st.
busted forcast and busted nothing
Hundreds of dead fish are floating in the river Des Peres in South St. Louis. The state has investigated to determine if it was caused by man or nature. Neighbors who live around the river told News 11 they first spotted the dead fish floating in the river on Wednesday. Hundreds of dead fish stretch for more than a half mile North of Gravois. MSD owns the section of the river. They say they hired crews to spray weed killer and they double checked today and say the crews did use a chemical that does not threaten wildlife. Conservation experts say when the rising Mississippi backs up into the river Des Peres the water can stagnate, lose the oxygen and the fish die, a disturbing sight to people who live nearby. "I think something's wrong something disturbing because there shouldn't be dead fish floating everywhere." said Kathy Shaver. Conservation officials say they believe the fish kill was caused by mother nature. The dead fish are Asian carp which have created lots problems for fishermen and boaters.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Season may be slow now, but there is a pattern change coming around the end of the month or beginning of next month that should really start making things interesting.

(those kind of vague, inflammatory predictions usually always get things going 'round here)

3....2....1....


Oh, you mean that pattern change that will not only create storms but steer them all towards Florida as well? That pattern change???
Maybe Luongo can save us from the storms...



then again.... maybe not.

EDIT: add a target in the net.
Quoting FLdewey:
The hairs on the back of Taz's neck just stood up
Patiently waiting for my ban threat..( diabolical and insane laughter in the background.)..Good morning Dewey.


China has evacuated more than 500,000 people from deadly floods that are devastating areas in the south of the country following the worst drought in 50 years.

At least 105 people have been swept to their deaths or killed in landslides and another 65 are missing after rivers burst their banks. The authorities have issued the highest level of alarm about dykes and dams under dangerous pressure.

Television channels that were only recently broadcasting images of dried-up lake beds are now carrying footage of flooded homes and boats plying their way through inundated streets. China Daily said 550,000 people have been forced to leave their homes.

The dramatic shift is in line with weather trends identified by the Beijing Climate Centre, which says rain is coming in shorter, fiercer bursts, interspersed by protracted periods of drought. more here..
LOL... its coming hydrus.

Morning to you too... what's the good word?
Quoting hydrus:
As far as gettin things going, nothin ever has, or ever will surpass the omnipotent, powerful and mighty shrine-graph. Put simple, nothing that has ever existed in the universe compares with it.


Does that graph change from year to year? It always looks the same. How can a weather graph not vary?
Quoting Neapolitan:

I did some quick math. Let's say the entire state of Texas is, on average, about 18" below normal; that seems like a safe estimate after looking at the above numbers. That means to bring the state up to normal, a bit over 84 trillion gallons of water is needed.

That's a lot.

That's as much water as 140 million Olymic-size pools.

That's nearly 70% of what Lake Erie holds.

That's as much water as the Mississippi River discharges in 200 days.


And mother nature will somehow make it up, one way or another
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yo Mate, what happened to the Cunucks? Anyway, there is always next year, just hope we make it through this hurricane season 1st.



Better question,,what happened with the drunken Cunucks fans rioting before it was even over?


Classy.


Article about the camps feeding the thousands of  firefighters in AZ.


In this June 6, 2011 photo provided by the U.S. Forest Service, fire crews gather for a morning briefing as the sun rises in a smoke-filled sky over the Wallow Fire Incident Command Post in Eager, Ariz. Thousands of firefighters are battling the massive forest fire that has become Arizona's largest, relying upon large base camps where they are fed and where they can sleep, bathe and put on their gear. Such camps have become the standard in modern wildfire work.

U.S. Forest Service, Karen Grubbs, Associated Press


In this June 6, 2011 photo provided by the U.S. Forest Service,
fire crews gather for a morning briefing as the sun rises in a
smoke-filled sky over the Wallow Fire Incident Command Post in Eager,
Ariz. Thousands of firefighters are battling the massive forest fire
that has become Arizona's largest, relying upon large base camps where
they are fed and where they can sleep, bathe and put on their gear. Such
camps have become the standard in modern wildfire work.
Quoting FLdewey:
LOL... its coming hydrus.

Morning to you too... what's the good word?
I dont know if its good or not, but the western half of the Caribbean is loaded with moistah...If I was a t-wave, thats where I,d wanna be...

Quoting RitaEvac:


And mother nature will somehow make it up, one way or another








China is a great example of that.
Quoting Skyepony:





China is a great example of that.
very true
Quoting BobinTampa:


Oh, you mean that pattern change that will not only create storms but steer them all towards Florida as well? That pattern change???
....dont get your hopes up,lol...it'll happen our rainy season doesnt usually start in ernest until the begining of july
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I had a feeling that this was going to happen soon. He claims that he came from Grothar's house.


Link


I posted this earlier but, given today's observations, I think it deserves another post.
Quoting Skyepony:
Hundreds of dead fish are floating in the river Des Peres in South St. Louis. The state has investigated to determine if it was caused by man or nature. Neighbors who live around the river told News 11 they first spotted the dead fish floating in the river on Wednesday. Hundreds of dead fish stretch for more than a half mile North of Gravois. MSD owns the section of the river. They say they hired crews to spray weed killer and they double checked today and say the crews did use a chemical that does not threaten wildlife. Conservation experts say when the rising Mississippi backs up into the river Des Peres the water can stagnate, lose the oxygen and the fish die, a disturbing sight to people who live nearby. "I think something's wrong something disturbing because there shouldn't be dead fish floating everywhere." said Kathy Shaver. Conservation officials say they believe the fish kill was caused by mother nature. The dead fish are Asian carp which have created lots problems for fishermen and boaters.


end times..per Revelations
Quoting Grothar:


Does that graph change from year to year? It always looks the same. How can a weather graph not vary?
I would guess that the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season will always be on or around September 10, regardless of what happens in any given year.There have been years when October was many times more active than September, but the activity chart remains unchanged...go figgah...Good morning Gro. This chart is great for checking out activity for each year..
Quoting Patrap:



Better question,,what happened with the drunken Cunucks fans rioting before it was even over?


Classy.


Yeah, that was pretty ridiculous. But then citizens organized on Facebook and Twitter both to help identify the rioters, and to pitch in to clean up the mess.
once the southern circulation initiates tropical cyclones will ensue and the caribbean will be the birthplace being pulled northward towards the poles,aug-sept peek......
TWC HD local on da 8's is play'n some funk,lol
Quoting FLdewey:
Maybe Luongo can save us from the storms...



then again.... maybe not.

EDIT: add a target in the net.


Got to be careful, Dont want to start anymore riots. LOL
Quoting Patrap:



Better question,,what happened with the drunken Cunucks fans rioting before it was even over?


Classy.




Would you like me to post some videos of the NOLA riots and looting?

There was a group that has been very active in the past who started most of it in Vancouver... apparently dumb enough to not notice everyone has a cell phone now adays.
Quoting cmahan:


Yeah, that was pretty ridiculous. But then citizens organized on Facebook and Twitter both to help identify the rioters, and to pitch in to clean up the mess.


Actually.... from what the news and blogs say... they have ID'ed the main ones... going to be interesting to hear their story's... ummm I'm just stupid??
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, June 17th, with Video


Thank you Awesome job Levi
Quoting cmahan:


Yeah, that was pretty ridiculous. But then citizens organized on Facebook and Twitter both to help identify the rioters, and to pitch in to clean up the mess.


Well that's good to hear.
Quoting LPStormspotter:


Thank you Awesome job Levi
Dittos Levi. Good updates.
Quoting Skyepony:
Hundreds of dead fish are floating in the river Des Peres in South St. Louis. The state has investigated to determine if it was caused by man or nature. Neighbors who live around the river told News 11 they first spotted the dead fish floating in the river on Wednesday. Hundreds of dead fish stretch for more than a half mile North of Gravois. MSD owns the section of the river. They say they hired crews to spray weed killer and they double checked today and say the crews did use a chemical that does not threaten wildlife. Conservation experts say when the rising Mississippi backs up into the river Des Peres the water can stagnate, lose the oxygen and the fish die, a disturbing sight to people who live nearby. "I think something's wrong something disturbing because there shouldn't be dead fish floating everywhere." said Kathy Shaver. Conservation officials say they believe the fish kill was caused by mother nature. The dead fish are Asian carp which have created lots problems for fishermen and boaters.
It's amazing how annoying problems just die all of a sudden. : )
Quoting Waltanater:
It's amazing how annoying problems just die all of a sudden. : )


huh? Fish are problems?

Poor little fish ain't done nuthin' to nobody!
753. CJ5
Quoting Skyepony:
Hundreds of dead fish The dead fish are Asian carp which have created lots problems for fishermen and boaters.


That is good news. The more Asian Carp that die the better off we are.
Quoting hydrus:
I would guess that the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season will always be on or around September 10, regardless of what happens in any given year.There have been years when October was many times more active than September, but the activity chart remains unchanged...go figgah...Good morning Gro. This chart is great for checking out activity for each year..


There is a lot less variation with # of hurricanes with nuetral years vs. an el nino or la nina season.
Quoting emcf30:


That SAL going to a take away to clear out!
guys i believe a low pressure is trying to form in the caribbean levi can u explain a bit i only know a small amount about cloud structure however it is evident that the most energy is located where the coldest cloud tops are check it out?
ahhh..I stand corrected, did not read the last line.
Ya can't even eat the carps.
755. caribbeantracker01 2:37 PM GMT on June 17, 2011
guys i believe a low pressure is trying to form in the caribbean levi can u explain a bit i only know a small amount about cloud structure however it is evident that the most energy is located where the coldest cloud tops are check it out?

What are the coordinates you are looking at?
756. aquak9 2:38 PM GMT on June 17, 2011
ahhh..I stand corrected, did not read the last line.
Ya can't even eat the carps.

Carp, meet HAARP!
Quoting Waltanater:
755. caribbeantracker01 2:37 PM GMT on June 17, 2011
guys i believe a low pressure is trying to form in the caribbean levi can u explain a bit i only know a small amount about cloud structure however it is evident that the most energy is located where the coldest cloud tops are check it out?

What are the coordinates you are looking at?


about 81 w 14 n
HAARP CARP DIEM!
Looks like there could be something there, but it may not have good enough conditions. SST is ok, but I think there is still some shear there and too close to land. I don't think it has enough time.
Quoting Waltanater:
Looks like there could be something there, but it may not have good enough conditions. SST is ok, but I think there is still some shear there and too close to land. I don't think it has enough time.


ok however the overall pattern is improving and if i am correct this is the first of the energy that should trigger the formation of the low pressure system forecasted in the southern gulf of mexico...shear is present now however the thing to base a forecast on i believe is the change in the upper pattern and it is forecasted to be favorable then marginally favorable.
Quoting Neapolitan:

I did some quick math. Let's say the entire state of Texas is, on average, about 18" below normal; that seems like a safe estimate after looking at the above numbers. That means to bring the state up to normal, a bit over 84 trillion gallons of water is needed.

That's a lot.

That's as much water as 140 million Olymic-size pools.

That's nearly 70% of what Lake Erie holds.

That's as much water as the Mississippi River discharges in 200 days.

Maybe we should have some tunnels routing water from flooding to the drought areas... (ok, just kidding... its a HORRIBLE situation here)

It is interesting that of all the rainfall deficits that RitaEvac posted, Tomball is the highest (and I live about 2 miles SSE of "downtown" Tomball). I have sprinklers for my yard, thankfully, but even with that, the stress is showing all over. On Jones Rd. just south of FM1960, a vacant lot burned Wednesday... right next to a major thoroughfare. In addition, over the past month, there have been 4 grass fires within a mile of my house, with the largest burning right around an acre before being put out.

Water restrictions are starting, with League City and Galveston starting mandatory water restrictions, and many municipalities starting voluntary requests for conservation. My local HOA (HomeOwners Association) is also suspending "yard of the month", in light of the drought, as it promotes over-watering.

Aerial fireworks are being banned throughout the county, with some local governments (including several local HOAs) going to the extent of banning ALL fireworks, and backing those bans up with fines and potential criminal/civil penalties (related to the existing burn ban).

The best hope we have of drought-breaking rainfall is from a tropical system of some sort (hopefully with as little damage as possible - we just want rain!). With many areas completely parched, any drought-busting rain we get must be spread out over several days if not several weeks. Our local flash flood guidance is about 6" (meaning flash flooding becomes a danger after about 6" in 24 hours), but that said, anything more than 2" or so in 2-3 hours would just become runoff, and not contribute to soil moisture.

Coming up, as RitaEvac posted, there is a chance of a "pulse" of tropical moisture giving the area some serious rainfall next week, but the timing and amounts differ between model suites, so NWS HGX is playing it safe and being overly conservative.
jeffs- we're not even allowed to light ciggarettes here anymore...we just gotta chew on'm with our dry, parched lips...

(j/k) but they have banned darn near everything else.
Maybe we should have some tunnels routing water from flooding to the drought areas...

I knew you guys would eventually come around!!!!!!!!

:)



SQUAWK!!!!
why can't you eat carp?
Quoting NRAamy:
Maybe we should have some tunnels routing water from flooding to the drought areas...

I knew you guys would eventually come around!!!!!!!!

:)



SQUAWK!!!!

YAY! I *knew* Amy would snag that reference! (And I even tossed in the reference to an otherwise-serious weather-related post with actual content!)
770. beell
Quoting NRAamy:
why can't you eat carp?


tastes like carp
they say it'sa a nasty tasting, boney icky fish, amy. Too bad cause they get real big, and are pretty fish.
Quoting jeffs713:

Maybe we should have some tunnels routing water from flooding to the drought areas... (ok, just kidding... its a HORRIBLE situation here)


Funny you should mention that. Had a neighbor who was wondering why we haven't actually done that. Kind of like the electrical grid. His idea is to run underground pipes to all the major water sources with gates. Then when one area has too much they send it to areas that have too little. If they are all full then the last one in line opens gates to the oceans. Hmmmmm.
beel! Love the new avatar!!!!

will we get holiday decorated beels in the future as well?

:)

hey jeff...

:)
Quoting jeffs713:
<Water restrictions are starting, with League City and Galveston starting mandatory water restrictions, and many municipalities starting voluntary requests for conservation. My local HOA (HomeOwners Association) is also suspending "yard of the month", in light of the drought, as it promotes over-watering.


Only now are they beginning to restrict lawn watering? Let's just say it seems a bit late. Our drought in South Florida is not quite as bad as in Texas, as the lakes and canals here are drying up, but we've had watering restrictions in place for months. What was Texas thinking?
Quoting NRAamy:
why can't you eat carp?

Because it's too easy to misspell on the menu. :|
aqua, hmmmm...... I guess they could use it as fertilizer.... or food for inmates....
Amy, I never received a response from you yesterday! ;)lol
775. PcolaDan 3:09 PM GMT on June 17, 2011
Quoting NRAamy:

why can't you eat carp?
Because it's too easy to misspell on the menu. :|




;)
Quoting Welling2000:


Only now are they beginning to restrict lawn watering? Let's just say it seems a bit late. Our drought in South Florida is not quite as bad as in Texas, as the lakes and canals here are drying up, but we've had watering restrictions in place for months. What was Texas thinking?
Our situation here is slightly different. Most of the water for SE TX comes from North Texas and Oklahoma, which have been near-normal for water. In addition, most of our water supplies are either surface, or very deep wells, and not as impacted by the drought.

Its not a matter of Texas water management being backwards (I can't say anything about other parts of the government being backwards, though). Its a matter of SFL relying much more on wells that are more heavily impacted by drought, and the need to hold back saltwater intrusion.
780. beell
Quoting NRAamy:
beel! Love the new avatar!!!!

will we get holiday decorated beels in the future as well?

:)

hey jeff...

:)


We will. For now, a rain day would qualify as a holiday.
777. RitaEvac 3:10 PM GMT on June 17, 2011
Amy, I never received a response from you yesterday! ;)lol



Rita, that's because I'm not trolling for dates on here...

take a hint, ok?
Quoting beell:


We will. For now, a rain day would qualify as a holiday.
Amen to that. My wife and I have already decided that if it actually rains when we are home, we are both going outside to see what it feels like - we forgot what rain is like.
783. CJ5
Quoting NRAamy:
why can't you eat carp?


They are shipped to Asia for human consumption but they are not eaten here. They are used for feedstocks and other products in the US. The problem is with the floods they will probably be pushed north and south into other lakes and rivers. They are a very invasive species and a problem that has become critical.
Quoting Welling2000:


Only now are they beginning to restrict lawn watering? Let's just say it seems a bit late. Our drought in South Florida is not quite as bad as in Texas, as the lakes and canals here are drying up, but we've had watering restrictions in place for months. What was Texas thinking?


Because in North TX where Dallas is, is where we get some of our water. They've been getting rains and are not in the drought (look at drought map) As long as the water is flowing downstream into our reservoirs it's been ok to hold up the water bans.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Funny you should mention that. Had a neighbor who was wondering why we haven't actually done that. Kind of like the electrical grid. His idea is to run underground pipes to all the major water sources with gates. Then when one area has too much they send it to areas that have too little. If they are all full then the last one in line opens gates to the oceans. Hmmmmm.


Why haven't we done it? One word answer: economics.

For those who want more info, look into the mind-blowing project costs for any major pipeline or canal-building project we've ever actually completed. And of course, NIMBY issues would keep any such project in the courts for years.
I'm not sure if anyone has talked about this but exactly how solid is the data that shows the correlation from current tropical weather conditions and occurrences of named storms?

I think sometimes there is a misconception that just because a storm doesn't impact the U.S. that there is a problem with the reporting. So people read "neutral conditions" and I really wonder how that is translated in their thinking?
and also notice how the area of coldest cloud tops are not embeded into the monsson trof as it was yesterday based on the surface maps,this may even be a seperate enterty however lets see how long it blows up
You can chop CARP and mix it with spices and even with other fish. It's a little gamey, but you can cook it, then chill it, and use it for salads, fish tacos, etc. It's good with pepper, onion and garlic. But I wouldn't harvest the dead ones! Now back to the weather....
Quoting NRAamy:
777. RitaEvac 3:10 PM GMT on June 17, 2011
Amy, I never received a response from you yesterday! ;)lol



Rita, that's because I'm not trolling for dates on here...

take a hint, ok?


LMAO, Amy
Quoting MrMixon:


Why haven't we done it? One word answer: economics.

For those who want more info, look into the mind-blowing project costs for any major pipeline or canal-building project we've ever actually completed. And of course, NIMBY issues would keep any such project in the courts for years.
Well, economics, and feasibility. The sheer capacity needed to reroute flood waters of those volumes is insane, and if established, the design of that system would be an engineering marvel, along with actually making said design work.
Quoting Welling2000:
You can chop CARP and mix it with spices and even with other fish. It's a little gamey, but you can cook it, then chill it, and use it for salads, fish tacos, etc. It's good with pepper, onion and garlic. But I wouldn't harvest the dead ones! Now back to the weather....
I never ate carp as a kid because they basically eat trash in the water, and rainbow trout tastes SO much better, too...
I wasn't trying to be funny.
RE: TX vs. FL drought - True that the water retention system and N. Texas situation is better. In S. FL. they don't bother with reservoirs, 'cause there's plenty of water to go around. Only, not always. Like now. People here have been requesting reservoirs for years, to no avail.
NEW BLOG
795. beell
City of Houston gets almost all their water from Lake Conroe and Lake Houston.



Lake Houston Storage - Acre Feet
June 2010 - June 2011




Lake Conroe Storage - Acre Feet
March 2011 to date
Quoting Neapolitan:

I did some quick math. Let's say the entire state of Texas is, on average, about 18" below normal; that seems like a safe estimate


Much of the western half of Texas takes well over a year to get 18 inches of rain and all of these locations are in the southeast - the wettest part of the state. Not that the rest of the state isn't severely behind, it's just not likely anywhere near 18 inches.

Link to TX rainfall deficit
Quoting Welling2000:
RE: TX vs. FL drought - True that the water retention system and N. Texas situation is better. In S. FL. they don't bother with reservoirs, 'cause there's plenty of water to go around. Only, not always. Like now. People here have been requesting reservoirs for years, to no avail.


Reservoir building in the U.S. peaked in the 1960's. We've built very, very few since then other than small farm ponds. There is no longer the political will for large reservoir projects. Some hate them because of the environmental issues they present (e.g. - inundating ecosystems, interrupting natural flow of water/sediment, blocking fish migration routes, etc.) and others hate them because they're expensive (e.g. - we'd have to raise taxes). Even if you did muster the political will for a large reservoir project, our county is so well settled at this point that I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a few hundred (or thousand) acres of land that someone isn't willing to fight to keep dry.
Whoo hoo!!!

Some of that moisture looks like it may head our way! Maybe all the Bahamas and SE FL will finally get a HEALING rain, instead of frightening almost-tornados....

baha the only place that is going to get some much needed rain this season from the tropics being a depression or a major hurricane is the lower to middle texas coasts...the conditions are setting up really great for them to get pounds of rainfall while the rest of us bake...