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Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:37 PM GMT on April 05, 2010

Could global warming increase wind shear over the Atlantic, potentially leading to a decrease in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes? There is a growing consensus among hurricane scientists that this is indeed quite possible. Two recent studies, by Zhao et al. (2009), "Simulations of Global Hurricane Climatology, Interannual Variability, and Response to Global Warming Using a 50-km Resolution GCM", and by Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", found that global warming might increase wind shear over the Atlantic by the end of the century, resulting in a decrease in the number of Atlantic hurricanes. For example, the second study took 18 relatively coarse (>60 km grid size) models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC climate report, and "downscaled" them using a higher-resolution (18 km grid size) model called ZETAC that was able to successfully simulate the frequencies of hurricanes over the past 50 years. When the 18 km ZETAC model was driven using the climate conditions we expect in 2100, as output by the 18 IPCC models, the authors found that a reduction of Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century resulted. An important reason that their model predicted a decrease in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.


Figure 1. Top: predicted change by 2100 in wind shear (in meters per second per degree C of warming--multiply by two to get mph) as predicted by summing the predictions of 18 climate models. Bottom: The number of models that predict the effect shown in the top image. The dots show the locations where tropical storms formed between 1981-2005. The box indicates a region of frequent hurricane formation where wind shear is not predicted to change much. Image credit: Geophysical Research Letters, "Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming", by Vecchi and Soden, 2007.

Since the Knutson et al. study using the 18 km resolution ZETAC model was not detailed enough to look at what might happen to major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes, a new study using a higher resolution model was needed. This was done by a team of modelers led by Dr. Morris Bender of NOAA's GFDL laboratory, who published their results in Science in February. The authors used the GFDL hurricane model--the model that has been our best-performing operation hurricane track forecasting model over the past five years--to perform their study. The GFDL hurricane model runs at a resolution of 9 km, which is detailed enough to make accurate simulations of major hurricanes. The researchers did a double downscaling study, where they first took the forecast atmospheric and oceanic conditions at generated by the coarse (>60 km grid) IPCC models, used these data to initialize the finer resolution 18 km ZETAC model, then used the output from the ZETAC model to initialize the high-resolution GFDL hurricane model. The final results of this "double downscaling" study suggest that although the total number of hurricanes is expected to decrease by the end of the century, we should expect an increase of 81% in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms in the Atlantic. This trend should not be clearly detectable until about 60 years from now, given a scenario in which CO2 doubles by 2100. The authors say that their model predicts that there should already have been a 20% increase in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms since the 1940s, given the approximate 0.5°C warming of the tropical Atlantic during that period. This trend is too small to be detectable, given the high natural variability and the difficulty we've had accurately measuring the exact strength of intense hurricanes before the 1980s.The region of the Atlantic expected to see the greatest increase in Category 4 and 5 storms by the year 2100 is over the Bahama Islands (Figure 2), since wind shear is not expected to increase in this region, and sea surface temperatures and atmospheric instability are expected to increase there.

The net effect of a decrease in total number of hurricanes but an increase in the strongest hurricanes should cause an increase in U.S. hurricane damages of about 30% by the end of the century, the authors compute, assuming that hurricane damages behave as they did during the past century. Over the past century, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to the Science paper by Bender et al. (2010).

Commentary
These results seem reasonable, since the models in question have been successfully been able to simulate the behavior of hurricanes over the past 50 years. However, the uncertainties are high and lot more research needs to be done before we can be confident of the results. Not all of the IPCC models predict an increase in wind shear over the tropical Atlantic by 2100, so the increase in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes could be much greater. Also, the GFDL model was observed to under-predict the strength of intense hurricanes in the current climate, so it may not be creating enough Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the future climate of 2100. On the other hand, IPCC models such as the UKMO-HadCM3 predict a very large increase in wind shear, leading to a drastic reduction in all hurricanes in the Atlantic by 2100, including Category 4 and 5 storms. So Category 4 and 5 hurricane frequency could easily be much greater or much less than the 81% increase by 2100 found by Bender et al.

The estimates of a 30% increase in hurricane damages by 2100 may be considerably too low, since this estimate assumes that sea level rise will continue at the same pace as was observed in the 20th century. Sea level rise has accelerated since the 1990s, and it is likely that this century we will see much more than than the 7 inches of global sea level rise that was observed last century. Higher sea level rise rates will sharply increase the damages due to storm surge, which account for a large amount of the damage from intense Category 4 and 5 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that while a 30% in hurricane damage by the end of the century is significant, this will not be the main reason hurricane damages will increase this century. Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. By 2015, the authors expect the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage. This number would increase to $600 billion by 2025 (though I think it is likely that the recent recession may delay this damage total a few years into the future.) It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must.

The authors of the GFDL hurricane model study have put together a nice web page with links to the paper and some detailed non-technical explanations of the paper.

References
Bender et al., 2010, "Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes", Science, 22 January 2010: Vol. 327. no. 5964, pp. 454 - 458 DOI: 10.1126/science.1180568.

Vecchi, G.A., B.J. Soden, A.T. Wittenberg, I.M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and M.J. Harrison, 2006, "Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing", Nature, 441(7089), 73-76.

Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden, 2007, "Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming", Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905, 2007.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

the Admin has been noted
T-Dude, I only got as fara s STA2023, what about yourself, my friend? LOL.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
taz I thought that people with cable or DSL got a new IP every time they logged on.


Not usually, especially if you have a router hooked up and always on. Do an IP check from time to time and you'll see.
Quoting Cane2010:
T-Dude, I only got as fara s STA2023, what about yourself, my friend? LOL.


oh I'm sure our course numbers are different at Purdue then at your school
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
taz I thought that people with cable or DSL got a new IP every time they logged on.




me tooo i not sure how he got a round i was thinking that the Admin would have block him from makeing a new ID
well we can all ways start flooding the Admin e mail box
Quoting tornadodude:


oh I'm sure our course numbers are different at Purdue then at your school


OK, really? But did you understand which course that was? Well, obviously, mijo, of course, FIU and Perdue are different, rofl.
JFV will be gone by friday AM
They don't bann by IP i don't believe. Its too easy too just change your IP address......its a 15second task.
Quoting Cane2010:


OK, really? But did you understand which course that was? Well, obviously, mijo, of course, FIU and Perdue are different, rofl.



do you even no what your talking about
Quoting TampaSpin:
They don't bann by IP i don't believe. Its too easy too just change your IP address......its a 15second task.



ture on that but they can do a site block
Quoting Tazmanian:



do you even no what your talking about


Do you ever ''spell'' anything, accurately?
Quoting Cane2010:


OK, really? But did you understand which course that was? Well, obviously, mijo, of course, FIU and Perdue are different, rofl.


sta? maybe a stat course?
Hey guys, cane season is almost here.
Quoting Cane2010:


Do you ever ''spell'' anything, accurately?



shut up little troll
Correct, sir. Of which I found very hard.
TampaSpin is correct.
My saving grace is that it'll take the admin at least an hour or two, before he's able to decipher your message, prudently.
i dont think JFV under stanes what the word banned means lol
shew, this is gettin' ugly
JFV read rule # 5 you are Violationing evere rule in the book by 1 posting and 2 bypassing a banned


Do not circumvent a ban. Most bans last 24 hours or less, please accept the ban. If you create a new username to circumvent a ban, you will be blocked from the site
Quoting Cane2010:
Correct, sir. Of which I found very hard.


With English sentence structure like this you have the audacity to call someone out on spelling???? Really???
JFV has never really got under my skin. I ignor the things that he says that could. I have him on my FB page and he is always friendly. Not sure why conflicts seem to happen unless one seeks it. Just my opinion!
Quoting PcolaDan:


With English sentence structure like this you have the audacity to call someone out on spelling???? Really???



well said well said
Quoting PcolaDan:


With English sentence structure like this you have the audacity to call someone out on spelling???? Really???


Not funny, seriously. Come on, Dan, you can do better than that. For Taz, punctuation is virtually non-existent, LOL.
press~ Have you checked out wundermap on firefox yet? I could never see all the PWS on IE.


Cold Fronts Linked to European H5N1 Outbreaks

ScienceDaily (Apr. 9, 2010) %u2014 Avian influenza (H5N1) outbreaks in Europe during the winter of 2005-2006 occurred at the edge of cold weather fronts, according to researchers from Princeton University and the Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.

Their results, published April 8 in the open-access journal PLoS Pathogens, show that these outbreaks were driven by aggregated movements of wild waterbirds away from areas of frozen water.

The researchers found that most H5N1 outbreaks occurred at sites where maximum temperatures were between 0C and 2C. These usually occurred on the edge of cold fronts where bodies of freshwater remained unfrozen. Many wild waterbirds need unfrozen bodies of freshwater in winter to feed; in order to minimize the distance flown, they also try to stay as close as possible to the northern breeding grounds to which they will migrate during spring. The resulting congregation of different species of waterbirds along the freezing front likely created ideal conditions for the transmission of the H5N1 virus within and between wild bird species; in 2006, it caused many detectable outbreaks.

The genetic tree of the H5N1 virus that caused outbreaks in Europe is well known. However, the conditions favoring the virus' spread were previously unclear. Understanding these ecological links may help to predict and control future outbreaks.

Forecasts predicting near-freezing temperatures in Europe may act as an indication for concern, the authors say. When these conditions are forecasted, the authors suggest that targeted surveillance in areas along the extreme edge of cold fronts may help in the early detection of the virus.
Indeed, thank you, Tim! They start with me first, and I have to defend myself from them, of course. But, obviously, I do not want to argue. Personal vendettas get us nowhere, quickly. Anyways, how's everything with you tonight, my fine sir?
the one thing JFV dos not get is the word banned


they banned him he comes back with new names overe and overe and overe


he dos not get it when some one banned you you are gone for good am not sure how he is geting pass the Admin bannds but right now it is not looking too good for JFV the next banned he gets will be a block site banned
1 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20


A B C D E F G H I J K L M O P Q R S T U V W X Y AND Z


THERE I DID NOT WANT TO SAY ANY BAD WORDS TO I SAD THAT
Quoting Cane2010:


Not funny, seriously. Come on, Dan, you can do better than that. For Taz, punctuation is virtually non-existent, LOL.

So what's your point? It's okay for you to make fun of someones spelling or punctuation but not for someone to point out your grammatical errors? Double standard.
it has been so nic on here but not any more in tell JFV showed up
2032. xcool
TampaSpin need add me tooo facebook ???
WOW, anyways.........?
Quoting PcolaDan:

So what's your point? It's okay for you to make fun of someones spelling or punctuation but not for someone to point out your grammatical errors? Double standard.



hmmmm its not ok too make fun of some one spelling thank you vary march how would you like it if i made fun of yours?
Quoting xcool:
TampaSpin need add me tooo facebook ???


Xcool, what's your name, I'll add you!
OK AM SHUTING UP NOW
Quoting PcolaDan:

So what's your point? It's okay for you to make fun of someones spelling or punctuation but not for someone to point out your grammatical errors? Double standard.


Of course not; by all means, point them out, when I ''rarely'' commit them, that is, lol.
2038. xcool



They're warming up, XCool.
Quoting xcool:
TampaSpin need add me tooo facebook ???


Xcool there is a FaceBook link on my website.....friend me so i can you.
2041. xcool
TampaSpin ok
2042. xcool



nice
Add me too, X, plz?
2046. xcool
JFV i add you later ;) ok
99W & Robyn both pretty much fell apart..MJO is on the move.
2049. xcool
i will .
Good nite everyone. Sleep peaceful!
Please do NOT Quote JFV i have him on Ignore
We finally meet, face-to-face, Edward!
Hello Brett.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Hello Brett.




Yeah I don't think cane2010 is JFV. I never saw JFV get that mean. (although he could have been and I missed it) I think it is someone else. Who's been banned even more than JFV has been.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Yeah I don't think cane2010 is JFV. I never saw JFV get that mean. (although he could have been and I missed it) I think it is someone else. Who's been banned even more than JFV has been.




this is odd oh is it
Of course I'm not JFV.
I actually believe you.
Quoting Cane2010:
Of course I'm not JFV.


your ACTING like him
then stop acting like JFV then
Thanks, I don't even know who he or she is. I just got defensive taht way, because I do not like people bluntly attacking me taht way, you know? Who would??? LOL. Anyways, if I did insult anyone in here, I sincerely apologies, :(.
Quoting Cane2010:
Thanks, I don't even know who he or she is. I just got defensive taht way, because I do not like people bluntly attacking me taht way, you know? Who would??? LOL. Anyways, if I did insult anyone in here, I sincerely apologies, :(.



your sure are acting like him this by the way you talk
Quoting Cane2010:
Thanks, I don't even know who he or she is. I just got defensive taht way, because I do not like people bluntly attacking me taht way, you know? Who would??? LOL. Anyways, if I did insult anyone in here, I sincerely apologies, :(.




and talk about my spell this look at yours lol
Goodnight, Mr. Lapsley.
I am not him, Taz.
Quoting Cane2010:
I am not him, Taz.



hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
good night
lol okay now I know you lied at some point ... either you know of him or are him ... the "sir" was a dead give away. =P
Anyone could use the sir and convoluted sentences and sound like JFV.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Anyone could use the sir and convoluted sentences and sound like JFV.

of course. but if he did it in that manner he atleast knows of him =P
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Anyone could use the sir and convoluted sentences and sound like JFV.



this what i was thinking
Hello everyone! im alexhurricane1991 and this is my first post ever on this blog. ive been reading this blog for 5 years and i found that this site has some of the best minds on the internet about hurricanes. I live in tampa and i am a weather fanatic ever sense i was 3 and im 18 now and in the not to distant future going to join the navy to become a meteorologist for them so i cant wait to put my two cents in these sometimes intriguing conversations on this blog!
I am not him, folks.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Hello everyone! im alexhurricane1991 and this is my first post ever on this blog. ive been reading this blog for 5 years and i found that this site has some of the best minds on the internet about hurricanes. I live in tampa and i am a weather fanatic ever sense i was 3 and im 18 now and in the not to distant future going to join the navy to become a meteorologist for them so i cant wait to put my two cents in these sometimes intriguing conversations on this blog!



welcome too dr m blog you well find lots of good info on this blog


all so make sure you read the rules

Link


dont want too see you get banned if you make a oops


and welcome too the dr m blog all so if you have too ues yahoo im you can im me at david_thomas4000 my im is open too any one that wants too joine my yahoo IM
Quoting Cane2010:
I am not him, folks.





i be leve it when it see it
good night am out
CO2 set a new record high last month:

I know its late but is there anyone left? i want to get to know some of you if not i will see you tomorrow.
I'm here.
Cool Cane 2010 and dont worry about it some people always think a new user is jfv hes like the boogeyman of the blog so if someone calls you out again just ignore them and talk weather isnt that why were on here in the first place?
Hello....

Could we go back to talking abt hurricane cat 5 effects, etc?

For example, does anyone know where I can find a set of SLOSH maps for the Bahamas? I know they exist, but findhing them online has been.... well, challenging....

EDIT: Never mind. Found it on the Wunderground....
Thanks, and yes, it is. I'm just not him; whoever he is, :(. Why can't they understand that, sigh.
Morning, Baha, long time no see, sir; how you've been?
Quoting presslord:
...as Ron White says: "It ain't the wind...it's what's in it..."
"It's not that the wind's blowin... It's what the wind is blowin".....lol
Sorry bahahurrican speaking of cat 5 storms i would not even want to get anywhere close to a cat 5 but i would love to see one all the way out in the atlantic not hitting anyone.
Quoting chucky7777:
"It's not that the wind's blowin... It's what the wind is blowin".....lol
LOL thats funny chucky.
Looks like where getting rain this morning in the tampa area but by the time we wake up the rain will be gone and temps in the 80s tomorrow but will cool down afterwards thats good news i like cold weather.
Mornin' all. I've been reading the series on Katrina's storm surge and now I am interested in storm surge potential for my area. It seems like about 1/4 of New Providence island, specifically along the SE coast, would be vulnerable to anywhere from 6 to 16 feet of surge in a cat 5.... I guess worst case would be with a storm passing over, or just south of the island from the SE.... which is not that unusual a direction from which to see a storm approach. In fact, if Ike had stuck to its original path, we would likely have had factual data as to the effects of a cat 4 on the NP coast.

Very interesting indeed.
For this upcoming hurricane season all the information that has been put together by levi, sormW, and drakoen i think we will have an interesting year full of landfalls and storms. im going with 16 storms with 8 being hurricanes and 4 majors but there is a lot of uncertainty still because even though el nino is going going gone this year i think there will still be effects at the onset of the season but by the last week of june i think will have our first tropical system and then its off to the races for the rest of the season. Remember this is my very amatuerish opinion so please if anyone wants to say where i am wrong by all means tell me i want to understand enso and the way it affects hurricane seasons.
mornin to you to Bahahurrican do you have an evac plan just in case a major specificaly a cat 4 or 5 were to come at you?
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
LOL thats funny chucky.
Yeah I Love Ron White, he is quite vulgar, but funny. Anywho if you see this post before it gets too far in the depths of the blog, welcome alex..Great minds at work here, you will learn alot about weather, climate, and of course the star of the show in my opinion, tropical cyclones. You will find i don't post on here hardly at all i am a lurker who feeds off everyone's intellect ...lol
Iron Mountain, Michigan (Airport)
Updated: 5:54 AM CDT on April 09, 2010
23 °F
Clear
Windchill: 16 °F
Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: 17 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the West
Pressure: 29.91 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1181 ft

2093. IKE
People arguing on a blog about whether someone is JFV or not...at midnight:(

52 days...
17 hours...
38 minutes...
and it starts.
Good Morning from Tallahasse.....Front came through yesterday, no major problems, and nice cool morning and gorgeous weather for the weekend and through this entire upcoming week in these parts....Life, weather wise, is good right now.
Seems like we need a new topic... JUST NO GLOBAL WARMING STUFF..........


PLease.
Quoting niederwaldboy:
Seems like we need a new topic... JUST NO GLOBAL WARMING STUFF..........


PLease.


Dr. M is on vacation and his "backups" apparently forgot to update his Blog....He'll be back next week.
Good morning. TSR released today its April outlook and raises the numbers from the December ones now up to=16/9/4.

Link
Quoting IKE:
People arguing on a blog about whether someone is JFV or not...at midnight:(

52 days...
17 hours...
38 minutes...
and it starts.
where have you been i was going to ask why you havent been around but then i look at the title of the blog and i anwer my own question
Morning Ike and all
Hi Stormw
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. TSR released today its April outlook and raises the numbers from the December ones now up to=16/9/4.

Link


It's no surprise as to where everyone is heading this year in terms of forcasting a very active season based upon current conditions with "heat" and ssts being a major positive factor. When all is said and done (the SSTs wiil be there and perhaps earlier than we think), I think the major factor to watch this year will be sheer levels (along with a pre-existing disturbance)......Absent some major currently unforseen issues that may arise in the Summer (i.e. a major SAL outbreak during the heart of the CV season or volcanic ash eruption), I think that overall sheer levels will determine the start and end of this year's season.
It's a little bit funny, when you get banned
How you get back in, we do not understand
I'm not a WU admin, but if I was
I'd IP you out so hard, your head would buzz

I've tried to ignore you, but you defeat me again
Now I'm ready to stab myself in the head with a pen
You're back one more time and I feel myself heave
No matter what you call yourself now, you're still JFV

And you can tell everybody, it's really not you
Some may believe, but I'm not a fool
I know it's you, man
I know it's you, man...we sniff you out like a dog
How wonderful life is, when you're not on the blog
Quoting CycloneOz:
It's a little bit funny, when you get banned
How you get back in, we do not understand
I'm not a WU admin, but if I was
I'd IP you out so hard, your head would buzz

I've tried to ignore you, but you defeat me again
Now I'm ready to stab myself in the head with a pen
You're back one more time and I feel myself heave
No matter what you call yourself now, you're still JFV

And you can tell everybody, it's really not you
Some may believe, but I'm not a fool
I know it's you, man
I know it's you, man...we sniff you out like a dog
How wonderful life is, when you're not on the blog
Excellent and to the point.
Mornin' Senior Chief

on storm surge.. I lived directly on Indian River in Jensen Beach atop a 12 ft. bluff with what once was a pristine grass flats behind my cottage. Surge wasn't necessarily my fear, erosion of the bluff was so I left for Francis and Jeanne. If you will recall, Francis sat offshore pounding the Bahama's before she decided to come ashore in Florida. We had an onshore wind for days and this packed a lens of water against the coast, raising the water levels in Indian River well before the storm arrived. The astounding thing to me was how long it took the water level to recede after the storm. We were above normal level for two full days after the storm. I could not help but be amazed at how large the lens of high water must have been to prolong this phenomenon. Now, I suppose that out flowing fresh water from the St. Lucie could have affected this but I lived there long enough to experience some pretty serious high fresh water events coupled with the despised Okeechobee Lake discharges and never did I see river levels affected. We have a real big hole to the Atlantic just a mile and a half to the south called the St. Lucie inlet. I am a dedicated and studious observer of my physical environment and watch tides closely (I fished every day )so I am reasonably certain that what I observed was Francis related.
2108. hydrus
Quoting CycloneOz:
It's a little bit funny, when you get banned
How you get back in, we do not understand
I'm not a WU admin, but if I was
I'd IP you out so hard, your head would buzz

I've tried to ignore you, but you defeat me again
Now I'm ready to stab myself in the head with a pen
You're back one more time and I feel myself heave
No matter what you call yourself now, you're still JFV

And you can tell everybody, it's really not you
Some may believe, but I'm not a fool
I know it's you, man
I know it's you, man...we sniff you out like a dog
How wonderful life is, when you're not on the blog
Excellent.
2109. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
where have you been i was going to ask why you havent been around but then i look at the title of the blog and i anwer my own question


Mostly lurking. Actually almost exclusively lurking.

Yeah...the blog title..lol.
2110. IKE
Quoting severstorm:
Morning Ike and all


Morning.

A cool and crisp 50.5...my low.
2111. hydrus
Quoting IKE:


Morning.

A cool and crisp 50.5...my low.
Hey Ike- Up here on the plateau, we had a low temp at- 64, high temp-89. Now we have a low of-37, and the high temp at 64. I like it because I dont have to run the heat or the a/c. It looks like someone is getting a hurricane this year. Where? Who knows.
2112. IKE
Quoting hydrus:
Hey Ike- Up here on the plateau, we had a low temp at- 64, high temp-89. Now we have a low of-37, and the high temp at 64. I like it because I dont have to run the heat or the a/c. It looks like someone is getting a hurricane this year. Where? Who knows.


Looks like a bad year ahead. Probably starting early.

I haven't read Bastardi's take on the season. I've seen his numbers and where they may form/go.

Think I'll read his predictions at Accuweather.
2113. IKE
He's calling for 7 land falling TS's and canes in the USA in 2010....Link

This blog will explode this summer.
History channel right now 10 am est is about the New England killer hurricane.

Mornin' Ike.
2116. IKE
Quoting indianrivguy:
History channel right now 10 am est is about the New England killer hurricane.

Mornin' Ike.


Morning.
2117. hydrus
Quoting IKE:
He's calling for 7 land falling TS's and canes in the USA in 2010....Link

This blog will explode this summer.
I am concerned. Our country has enough going on without getting hit by one (or more) hurricanes. I believe if it happens there will be serious set backs for us. There will also be unforeseen repercussions that I am sure we could live without. I am making my prediction May-15. Maybe I will get it right this year.
2118. Chigz
If you actually read what JB says on his blogs... he is predicting 2010 season more like 2008 in terms to track but just more of it...!! IKE and Gustav comes to mind...!
And if that comes true then the Gulf coast will be in trouble!!
We could see gas spike like in 2005. It's already nearing 3 dollars/gallon.
Quoting Cane2010:
Morning, Baha, long time no see, sir; how you've been?
Quoting Cane2010:
Thanks, and yes, it is. I'm just not him; whoever he is, :(. Why can't they understand that, sigh.




its you you need toos stop lieing be thats is this what you are doing i can tell its you be come the way you spell and the way you talk and the way you all ways : Quote some one evere time they make a commet about some in
2123. hydrus
Quoting RitaEvac:
We could see gas spike like in 2005. It's already nearing 3 dollars/gallon.
I know. Another thing that bothers me is there are so many still picking up the pieces from other disasters, monetarily and otherwise. And a rise in gas prices sure the heck won,t help matters either.
2124. aquak9
hi ike!! good to see ya. Real good!
2125. aquak9
Quoting CycloneOz:
It's a little bit funny, when you get banned
How you get back in, we do not understand
I'm not a WU admin, but if I was
I'd IP you out so hard, your head would buzz

I've tried to ignore you, but you defeat me again
Now I'm ready to stab myself in the head with a pen
You're back one more time and I feel myself heave
No matter what you call yourself now, you're still JFV

And you can tell everybody, it's really not you
Some may believe, but I'm not a fool
I know it's you, man
I know it's you, man...we sniff you out like a dog
How wonderful life is, when you're not on the blog


It's kinda like playing "Where's Waldo?"
G'morning, everyone!
I paid $3.19 a gallon yesterday!
Had some severe weather here yesterday. Today is some nice tanning weather.
2129. hydrus
Quoting StormW:
where do you get those water temp pics Storm?
OUCH, Tim.
Quoting ElConando:
Had some severe weather here yesterday. Today is some nice tanning weather.
we have had a load of rain after seeing temps in high 70's for almost 2 weeks now back to normal with temps in mid 30's this am overnight down to high 20's brrrr just a 36 hr cold spell then warm up next week be back to near 70 by mid week
2133. IKE
Quoting indianrivguy:
History channel right now 10 am est is about the New England killer hurricane.

Mornin' Ike.


Morning.
Quoting niederwaldboy:
Seems like we need a new topic... JUST NO GLOBAL WARMING STUFF..........


PLease.




well said well said well said
2136. hydrus
Quoting StormW:


Naval Research Laboratory
Really cool. Thank you.
2138. hydrus
Quoting IKE:


Morning.
Ike, did you read 2117-?
Quoting Tazmanian:




well said well said well said


True but the radicals on both sides "like me" will always defend their belief!
2140. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
hi ike!! good to see ya. Real good!


Hey!
2141. IKE
Quoting hydrus:
Ike, did you read 2117-?


Yeah.

Based on the experts....bad hurricane season ahead. I picked 13-7-4. Looks like those numbers may be too low.
2142. hydrus
Quoting IKE:


Yeah.

Based on the experts....bad hurricane season ahead. I picked 13-7-4. Looks like those numbers may be too low.
And Bastardi said 7 landfalls. I believe that number is to high. If that does pan out, it will be horrible beyond description.
Quoting indianrivguy:
History channel right now 10 am est is about the New England killer hurricane.

Mornin' Ike.

Morning everyone! The program on the New England Hurricane is awesome!
2144. IKE
Quoting hydrus:
And Bastardi said 7 landfalls. I believe that number is to high. If that does pan out, it will be horrible beyond description.


2008....




Last years lull.....

Yeah, Ike, I'm thinking more along the lines of 17-8-6, though I may be overblowing it some
Robyn is barely a naked swirl.. I can see the reluctance to pronounce a time of death with warmer waters ahead, but it doesn't look hopeful.

99W has been reduced to a cluster of showers.
US NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK


The only thing more scary than this years hurricane season is this!^
Hi guys check this out

Link
2150. IKE
Quoting Floodman:
Yeah, Ike, I'm thinking more along the lines of 17-8-6, though I may be overblowing it some


Your numbers may be about right.
Can't say it enough if you live in an area vulnerable to tropical systems NOW is the time to get ready. Just about every parameter is coming togther to produce a well above average year so dont wait till the storm is knocking on your doorstep.

adrian
2152. hydrus
Quoting IKE:


2008....




Last years lull.....

Bastardi said 7 U.S. landfalls didnt he?
Flood~ You may not being over blowing it. Things have set up alot like 2005. Even though another season even anywhere near that active, we've been told we shouldn't see again in our life.. things are obviously changing & these 1 in 100, 1000 & even 10,000 year events are turning out not so 1 in.. with repeats being more the new norm. I'm somewhere between 15 & 19. I think Joe's 7 landfalls is a bit high especially with the uncertainty of ENSO right now. If it crashes hard the Caribbean should get nailed, not so much the US.
2154. Patrap
.."I saw a werewolf drinking a Pina Colada at Trader Vics,his hair was Perfect"..

He said the all the Numbers were way too High,and that we cant yet say when nor where.
So I take the numbers as bantha Fodder
Whats the oddds this season could still be a dud? overhype by experts could end up over doing it and just be a average season like last year.
Oh, man, a cool entry from the Straight Dope today

Will Special Paint keep my house cooler in the summer?
2157. hydrus
Quoting RitaEvac:
Whats the oddds this season could still be a dud? overhype by experts could end up over doing it and just be a average season like last year.
I just checked it out. Bastardi said 7 U.S. landfalls. It has happened before, but I believe that is too high a number. jmo
Quoting RitaEvac:
Whats the oddds this season could still be a dud? overhype by experts could end up over doing it and just be a average season like last year.


Anything is possible all you need is (1) over your community. I says the odds are rather high that this season will be fairly active.
2159. IKE
Quoting hydrus:
Bastardi said 7 U.S. landfalls didnt he?


Yup.
Bastardi is one guy
You are so right patrap all these predictions are just speculation for all we know we could have a dull season but i doubt it. anyways if anyone wasnt here last night im alexhurricane 1991 and im new to this im usually a lurker reading this blog but finally had the courage to post here to give my opinions on tropical cyclones and other weather related subjects.
2162. IKE
Quoting RitaEvac:
Bastardi is one guy


But he's not alone and he's not stupid.

I'm not sure about 7 US landfalls, but he knows a ton more then I do.
1933 had about 20 landfalls
2164. Patrap
JB looked real ill on the TV on Colbert Tuesday night.

Like real sick,..so thin and gaunt
So no New England Express this season by Bastardi?
2166. Patrap
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
You are so right patrap all these predictions are just speculation for all we know we could have a dull season but i doubt it. anyways if anyone wasnt here last night im alexhurricane 1991 and im new to this im usually a lurker reading this blog but finally had the courage to post here to give my opinions on tropical cyclones and other weather related subjects.


Welcome alex,nothing but us humans here,..glad to have ya here.
2167. Chigz
JB's number of 7 landfalls isn't over the top! Don't think he means 7 hurricane landfalls..that number includes Tropical Storms... that means 7 landfalls in total in 5 months (june - Oct)... if you look it that way it really isn't that many!!

Also, someone here said that "the Caribbean might get hit hard but US might be spared"...kind of a odd statement??! Anything that gets into Caribbean west of 75 and south of 20 has no where to go but the hit the US..ok. sure it can go in to Mexico and South America but that's not that often!!
I hope we dont have another season like 1933 that would be terrifing with all these people living on the coast not good.
2169. Patrap
I predict the Worst of the Canes will occur from 10 August to 30 September this year.

That you can publish,..
Quoting Patrap:
I predict the Worst of the Canes will occur from 10 August to 30 September this year.

That you can publish,..


Thats the Katrina/Rita/Ike time frame
Quoting Patrap:
I predict the Worst of the Canes will occur from 10 August to 30 September this year.

That you can publish,..


Sounds like a "written in stone" statement
Thanks patrap your a great contributer to this blog and you tell people to prepare for june 1st everey year and thats good because even some people on here get complacent and need to be told so keep doing that and cant wait to talk hurricanes with you and everyone else.
2173. afj3
How rough does anyone think the Atlantic basin will be this season? Should be more active than 2006-2008?
My observation, with no science behind it whatsoever, is that most started somewhere near the 10 year mathmatical average (16/9/4). Then as first one, then another, then another went higher, they began feeding off each other until the numbers got too high. Then, again, first one, then another, then another started coming back down until we are, today, with everyone predicting pretty close to the 10 year mathmatical average. I believe we have time for at least 2 more of these cycles before we see what the actual season brings. My $.02...
I cant think of any area on the Gulf coast that really can't take another hurricane. Except for Corpus Christi, and Brownsville
2177. Patrap
Well alex,Preparation is the ONLY hedge against Every season,..


Have a Plan,

Have your Supplies ready May 15th..

And have a Evac destination in Mind now..

That way,when the threat comes,one can drive on out to safety before the rush crush.




A local group Looking to expand.



Good folks and leadership as well.



evacuteer.org
When it comes to exploring our potential as a community, a mandatory evacuation highlights the power of us. Evacuteer.org mobilizes New Orleanians willing to push their boundaries for the collective good.
Quoting StormW:


ZERO....If the indicators keep like they are going, and nothing changes.


Nice bold statement, I like that
2179. hydrus
Quoting RitaEvac:
Bastardi is one guy
True, but a lot of people see and hear him and repeat what he said. I think it is normal to make scientific observations and estimate roughly how many tropical cyclones might form in a season. But trying to predict how many will hit land ( or what country ) is a bit ridiculous, even with all knowledge and technology we have today. This is just a harmless opinion, I am sure many people want to know where the storms are going or might strike, and some will try to forecast this, but it seems like a risky endeavor.
I agree storm this season will be active the question isnt if its going to be an active year its what month well we feel the wrath of the hurricanes and how bad will they be. by the way nice to meet you i look forward to talking hurricanes with you.
2181. Patrap
In 92,,we didnt get the first Named System to Mid August,..

So all the analog years,PDO's ,EL Nino fades,..and ENSO bobbing aside,Nature always has a twist in store each season that the Graphs and Humans miss.

I dare say 2010 will have its "Own" say in the matter as well.

At the end of the day,were all mere observers of natures Follies.

We can make no difference in the Storms,save for being Prepared and ready for what May occur.
Quoting hurricane23:


Anything is possible all you need is (1) over your community. I says the odds are rather high that this season will be fairly active.


Yep. Hurricane Andrew struck in what was a below-average year. Big ones don't only come in "active" seasons
2183. afj3
Quoting Patrap:
In 92,,we didnt get the first Named System to Mid August,..

So all the analog years,PDO's ,EL Nino fades,..and ENSO bobbing aside,Nature always has a twist in store each season that the Graphs and Humans miss.

I dare say 2010 will have its "Own" say in the matter as well.

But don't some forecasters warn which area of the U.S. is due for a hit? I don't know how anyone could predict something like that but they do....
When you see stuff like this it's cause for concern.

ECM MLSP Forecast...



ECM Precip Forecast...

2185. Patrap
#2182

Thats a Point well made and to heed.
Having a Plan,now..will reduce your stress in the Emergency then,and that will help one make cool,rational decisions when it counts.
I agree hydrus no one can predict how many hurricanes make landfall not even the best meteorologists know but i like what bastardi did hes saying that for people not to get complacent and get there evac plans together and or there hurricane kits together for june 1st.
2182. Very true. If the roof flys off your house, you really don't care anymore how active the season is...
2188. hydrus
Quoting NttyGrtty:
2182. Very true. If the roof flys off your house, you really don't care anymore how active the season is...
word.lol
WOW! thats not good hurricane 23 thats is very concerning hopefully we wont have any hurricanes in the carribean this year but thats probably not going to happen so be careful to all the bloggers and people living in the carribean if one gets in there its not going to be pretty. hopefully shears there but forecasts say its going to be below normal this year.
Quoting hurricane23:


Anything is possible all you need is (1) over your community. I says the odds are rather high that this season will be fairly active.


Adrian,even if there are sal outbreaks,that wont slow the season?
You should prepare the same way you do every year regardless what the predictions say.
I'm going out on a limb here and saying the Yucatan is a bullseye this season. Hot water, low shear, breeding grounds for powerful canes and development
2193. Patrap
We see the Meat of the Dust early in the Season,..the SAL is a good inhibitor ,but during the CV Months,Esp Later Aug and Sept SAL usually is a non ,or minimal issue.

But like I mentioned earlier,each year has its own particular signature.

So will 2010

Saharan Air Layer Analysis

5-Day SAL Java Movie,latestE-Pac
The yucatan is always at risk every year its a penninsula that sticks out like a sore thumb so yes i think there going to have a bad go this season.
And on a completely different topic -

Nothing to see here this morning.

No really, I can't see the other side of the parking lot through the blowing snow.

Spring in the Great White North!! Gotta love it.
Quoting hurricane23:
When you see stuff like this it's cause for concern.

ECM MLSP Forecast...



ECM Precip Forecast...






Very Active ITCZ
Hello Everyone, I see they say that the Caymans might be in for rough year tropically speaking sure hope they are wrong.
2200. Patrap
One Storm can ruin a season in 2 states easily..



Even in a average year
NOLA was sweating bullets when Andrew was barreling westward toward them Im sure
2203. Patrap
For a time,,.and to be sure Andrew dropped a F-3 in Laplace 30 miles West of here that Killed 4.
Quoting Chigz:
JB's number of 7 landfalls isn't over the top! Don't think he means 7 hurricane landfalls..that number includes Tropical Storms... that means 7 landfalls in total in 5 months (june - Oct)... if you look it that way it really isn't that many!!

Also, someone here said that "the Caribbean might get hit hard but US might be spared"...kind of a odd statement??! Anything that gets into Caribbean west of 75 and south of 20 has no where to go but the hit the US..ok. sure it can go in to Mexico and South America but that's not that often!!


1st it's a big if.. as the ENSO monthly stated yesterday & I've been saying for 6 weeks the ENSO models & what will happen there is a bigger uncertainty than usual..model confidence there is low.. but lets take a look at one of the better dynamical models from NASA.. & this is very much in line with what it had in the pasts months so it hasn't been playing fickle either..

That is screaming mighting severe La Niña for the heart of 'cane season.. That would build a big strong high over FL & the gulf sending the bulk of the worst (Dean, Felix..) through the Caribbean into Central America like 2007..US had 4 landfalls that year..only one was a hurricane. I agree about the active season but find ENSO a little uncertain yet to agree with 7 US landfalls.
Cool toontown i dont get to snow that often because i live in tampa but when i do see it its awesome so congrats!
Quoting RitaEvac:
Whats the oddds this season could still be a dud? overhype by experts could end up over doing it and just be a average season like last year.


A year can always be a dud, but just like conditions needing to be perfect for a storm to form, they have to be perfect for a season to be a dud as well...
Hey, Orca!
Thats a good observation there skyepony we still dont kn.ow about enso some models have neural conditions some have weak la ninas and some that still have el nino though thats few and far between but theres still discepences about that and we should wait for may to have a general idea of were this hurricane season is going enso wise
How's it going all?

With the early predictions that have been released, I smell them and there will be a larger than normal infestation of them this year...... Yes I'm talking about the dreaded

TROLLS

Be careful out there.
OH NO! not the trolls everyone run for the hills! LOL!
2212. Patrap
I like going back every day a year here in the archives during this time and see how the banter went pre-season.

Its good fer a nice chuckle as well.
Try it,ya might get a lil insight as well too.
Like the sands of an hour glass, so are the days as we count down June 1st.
2214. Levi32
Quoting Skyepony:


1st it's a big if.. as the ENSO monthly stated yesterday & I've been saying for 6 weeks the ENSO models & what will happen there is a bigger uncertainty than usual..model confidence there is low.. but lets take a look at one of the better dynamical models from NASA.. & this is very much in line with what it had in the pasts months so it hasn't been playing fickle either..

That is screaming mighting severe La Nia for the heart of 'cane season.. That would build a big strong high over FL & the gulf sending the bulk of the worst (Dean, Felix..) through the Caribbean into Central America like 2007..US had 4 landfalls that year..only one was a hurricane. I agree about the active season but find ENSO a little uncertain yet to agree with 7 US landfalls.


Joe Bastardi did acknowledge that by the way. He's making a forecast based on going into a La Nina but not hitting moderate or strong categories until the fall and winter months. He said just the other day on his video that the tracks could end up farther south than he has them right now if the La Nina comes crashing in real strong like 2007 and 1988.

And for clarification, his forecast is for 7 total landfalls, 5 of them hurricanes, and 2-3 of them major. That's because he's forecasting 16-18 total named storms but 15 of those will make it west of 55W, and therefore be a threat to land areas. It's a big forecast no doubt, but it's not way out there.

Yeah last year it was hard to read the blog because of the trolls and downcasters but this year it will be the oppisite all the wishcasters and doomcasters will come out so every year whether its a dull season or a active seasons we are always going to get these people just ignore them and carry on talking about what we all love Hurricanes yeah!
Hey levi im alexhurricane1991 and i like your in depth look at whats going to make this hurricane season tick so good job man and cant wait for the show to start.
Is anyone here?
2218. Levi32
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Hey levi im alexhurricane1991 and i like your in depth look at whats going to make this hurricane season tick so good job man and cant wait for the show to start.


Hey there, welcome to the blogs. It will probably be a busy summer but definitely not exciting to those who live in harm's way. I hope to be tracking many fish this year.
2219. hydrus
Quoting Levi32:


Joe Bastardi did acknowledge that by the way. He's making a forecast based on going into a La Nina but not hitting moderate or strong categories until the fall and winter months. He said just the other day on his video that the tracks could end up farther south than he has them right now if the La Nina comes crashing in real strong like 2007 and 1988.

And for clarification, his forecast is for 7 total landfalls, 5 of them hurricanes, and 2-3 of them major. That's because he's forecasting 16-18 total named storms but 15 of those will make it west of 55W, and therefore be a threat to land areas. It's a big forecast no doubt, but it's not way out there.

If it turns out we have a La-Nina, Does it Usually take some time for the atmosphere to change over enough to effect the path of the hurricanes?
Interesting studies but, at the same way with the use of AgI to prevent hailstorms, perhaps this increase of windshear will inhibe tropical cyclone development along the RDP but, what about on large scale jet streams in the Northern Hemisphere? I bet for incresing in tropical cyclones out of this region, and tropical transitions of cutoff lows, out of "tropical" waters.
would a blogger be considered a troll when freaking out about another troll for every post, instead of ignoring them...? just trying to catch up on this long thread (our guest skip town w/ you Jeff?), a little perturbed by incessant fears of a notorious JFV...
we got buttons for problematic entries folks...
and here i am reduced to the very evil!
compliments to the posts about weather :)
Quoting Skyepony:


1st it's a big if.. as the ENSO monthly stated yesterday & I've been saying for 6 weeks the ENSO models & what will happen there is a bigger uncertainty than usual..model confidence there is low.. but lets take a look at one of the better dynamical models from NASA.. & this is very much in line with what it had in the pasts months so it hasn't been playing fickle either..

That is screaming mighting severe La Niña for the heart of 'cane season.. That would build a big strong high over FL & the gulf sending the bulk of the worst (Dean, Felix..) through the Caribbean into Central America like 2007..US had 4 landfalls that year..only one was a hurricane. I agree about the active season but find ENSO a little uncertain yet to agree with 7 US landfalls.


This scenario would be more dangerous for the Gulf coast later in the season when troughs start to erode the high. Then we'll have the storm curving to the N and NE in the gulf.

I would consider that a troll minniemike because you are feeding that troll to troll some more just ignore them and move on.
2224. Levi32
Quoting hydrus:
If it turns out we have a La-Nina, Does it Usually take some time for the atmosphere to change over enough to effect the path of the hurricanes?


Sometimes yes, if it's the ocean driving things. However, this year the ENSO is primarily reactive, meaning that the ocean is reacting to what the atmosphere is doing, rather than the other way around. Because of this, there shouldn't really be any lag to the effects of the coming La Nina. You will probably see most of the effects of this reversing El Nino start to take shape already during May, before the season even starts.
wow thats cool levi so we could be looking at a la nina by the worst part of the season? if so that means more hurricanes and the greater chance for these to landfall unfourtunatly.
Some trolls are just so much fun to egg on though, you just can't help yourself. lol
2227. Levi32
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
wow thats cool levi so we could be looking at a la nina by the worst part of the season.


It is nearly certain we will be entering the La Nina phase of the ENSO during the mid-late summer, but how strong it gets is still pretty fuzzy.
Thats true dan sometimes what they say is histarical and you want to hear what they have to say next.
Who was that person last year that kept popping up with the "based on my teams latest research and analysis....our latest forecast... blah blah blah"?
Oh ok thanks for clearing that up levi.
2232. Levi32
Quoting StormW:
Levi,
Did you get my WU email?


I did, just read it a little bit ago. I couldn't resist playing around with it a little bit lol, but I'll reply back soon. I found some things I think you might find interesting.
That was nolaweather iluvjess it was very funny to read his arrogance and his forecasts if you can call it that.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
That was nolaweather iluvjess it was very funny to read his arrogance and his forecasts if you can call it that.


Thats right... I was about to go back and look it up. Funny stuff it was.
I wonder when we can look forward to nola's forecast for this year? Seems his "Team" is way behind the competition. Or maybe they are just taking a little extra time to evaluate the most up to the minute data. lol
2237. xcool
The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April forecast update for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2010 anticipates
an active hurricane season to more certainty than forecast in December 2009. Based on current and
projected climate signals, Atlantic basin and US landfalling tropical cyclone activity are forecast to be
about 60% above the 1950-2009 norm in 2010. There is a high (77%) likelihood that activity will be in
the top one-third of years historically. The forecast spans the period from 1st June to 30th November 2010
and employs data through to the end of March 2010. TSR’s two predictors are the forecast July-
September 2010 trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast
August-September 2010 sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic. At present TSR
anticipates both predictors having a moderate enhancing effect on activity.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/


oops, that was an answer... this is a modification, please ignore.
2239. hydrus
Quoting Levi32:


It is nearly certain we will be entering the La Nina phase of the ENSO during the mid-late summer, but how strong it gets is still pretty fuzzy.
Alright, name one anomaly that does not look to favor hurricane development this year.
2240. Levi32
Quoting hydrus:
Alright, name one anomaly that does not look to favor hurricane development this year.


I'm on the hunt for one....lol. Some of these things are still based on model forecasts though, as it's still early. We will have to actually observe things such as wind shear and the MJO during May and June to see how those anomalies and others like them are shaping up. Based on what we're seeing now, we know how they should turn out, but some variables don't like to play along all the time.
I just looked at the temprature anomalies in the atlantic basin and omg did the gulf warm up thats very disconcerning living in the tampa area i do not like the gulf will warm so quickly and if it keeps warming it will be normal by mid may and with that we need to be vigilant because we all know to well what a hurricane can do in the gulf.

Not to worry, last time I checked, Tampa's Hurricane Protection Shield Subscription was up to date and is receiving updates.
Storm whats an easterly QBO?
2245. Levi32
The only negative thing I can think of right now may be the QBO, but I have yet to come across conclusive evidence that it has a large effect.

I gotta go for a bit.

StormW I'll get back to you when I can.
Quoting StormW:


Easterly QBO


The 2005 Hurricane Season had an Easterly QBO.
NEW BLOG EVERYBODY..NEW BLOG****
2249. hydrus
Quoting StormW:


Easterly QBO
That is the one thing I found also. That very subject came up on this blog not long ago. someone said that the QBO only affects development in the southern most region of the MDR. So it may have little impact. I don,t think there is enough time left for the QBO to reverse direction either. So hopefully it will put a damper on some of the waves this year, and we will learn even more about how that oscillation effects a potentially busy season.
Quoting SevereHurricane:


2005 had an Easterly QBO.
Quoting hydrus:
That is the one thing I found also. That very subject came up on this blog not long ago. someone said that the QBO only affects development in the southern most region of the MDR. So it may have little impact. I don,t think there is enough time left for the QBO to reverse direction either. So hopefully it will put a damper on some of the waves this year, and we will learn even more about how that oscillation effects a potentially busy season.


It generally only hampers development in area's south of 15N.
2251. hydrus
Quoting SevereHurricane:


It generally only hampers development in area's south of 15N.
So it will be important to see how far north the African waves are moving off the Continent this year as well as the general position of the ITCZ.
Quoting hydrus:
So it will be important to see how far north the African waves are moving off the Continent this year as well as the general position of the ITCZ.


Correct
2253. hydrus
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Correct
I mentioned that this year I would make an estimate on how many storms we might have on may 15. I will probably do better than I did last year with this kind of approach. I predicted 13 named storms last year. Not too good. whine,sniffle, lol
BLOG REVIVED
So that's why 2011 is forecast to become an active season.
First, when we get a cooling trend, idiots with an agenda remove a curve in a graph so it supports their position. Then when they get busted, the term climate change creeps in so they can make their money by jumping on either side of the fence (hello GE). Grrrrreat, now I can digest articles from losers who write the reason we have fewer hurricanes is because of global warming, then when that doesn't work out for them, I can read how the increase in hurricanes is the result of global warming.

Just a thought from little ol me. STFU.