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Global ocean temperatures at record highs for 3rd consecutive month

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:04 PM GMT on September 17, 2009

For the third consecutive month, global Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were the warmest on record, according to statistics released yesterday by the National Climatic Data Center. August SSTs were 0.57°C (1.03°F) above the 20th century average, breaking the previous August record set in 1998. The record August SSTs were due in part to the continuation of El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific, which have substantially warmed a large stretch of the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño conditions are expected to amplify during the coming months, and record or near-record global ocean temperatures will probably continue.

August global surface temperatures 2nd to 6th warmest on record
The globe recorded its second warmest August since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NOAA rated the period June - August (summer in the Northern Hemisphere, winter in the Southern Hemisphere) as the third warmest on record, and the year-to-date period, January - August 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2009 as the 6th warmest August on record, and the period June-July-August as the 2nd warmest on record. The August satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest five miles of the atmosphere were between 7th and 9th warmest on record, according to the University of Alabama in Huntsville and Remote Sensing Systems.

Warmest August on record in Australia and New Zealand
Australia had its warmest August on record in 2009, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Temperatures averaged a remarkable 3.2°C (5.8°F) above average, making August 2009 the most anomalous month ever recorded in Australia. The previous record was set in April 2005, which was 3.1°C (5.6°C) above average. The month's highest temperature, 39.7°C (103°F) at Wyndham Airport on the 31st, fell only 0.3°C short of the Australian record for August. The Australian winter (June-July-August) was the 2nd warmest on record, next to the winter of 1996. New Zealand also experienced its warmest August on record (records go back 155 years).

A cool August and cool summer for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average August temperature was 0.6°F below average, making it the 30th coolest August in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The U.S. as a whole was below normal for the summer period (June - August). A recurring upper level trough held the June - August temperatures down in the central states, where Michigan experienced its fifth coolest summer, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and South Dakota their seventh coolest each, Nebraska its eighth, and Iowa its ninth. In contrast, the temperatures in Florida averaged out to be fourth warmest, while Washington and Texas experienced their eighth and ninth warmest summers, respectively.

U.S. precipitation in August was below average, as the month ranked 28th driest in the 115-year record. Arizona had its fourth driest August, New Mexico its fifth, and it was the eighth driest August for Colorado, Utah and Texas. Arizona observed its third driest summer, while both South Carolina and Georgia had their sixth driest. It was the 8th wettest summer on record in the Northeast.

At the end of August, 13% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. These extreme drought regions were exclusively in South to Central Texas. However, significant drought relief occurred in this region the second week of September, when a large area of tropical moisture settled in over the region, bringing heavy rains. About 19 percent of the contiguous U.S. fell in the severely to extremely wet categories in August.

Weak El Niño conditions continue
El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 0.4°C above the threshold for a weak El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10.

Sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
August 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, behind 2006 and 2007. Sea ice extent has increased slightly over the past week, and we have probably reached the minimum for the year. If so, this year's minimum ranks as the 3rd lowest, behind 2007 and 2008. The fabled Northwest Passage appeared to melt free for brief period in August, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This marks the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--the Northwest Passage has opened. The Northeast Passage along the north coast of Russia also opened up this year. This is the fourth time in the past five years the Northeast Passage has opened, and the fourth time in recorded history.

Quiet in the Atlantic
The remains of Hurricane Fred are generating a very small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near 23N, 61W. These thunderstorms were generating winds up to 35 mph, according to this morning's QuikSCAT pass. However, QuikSCAT also showed that the remains do not have a surface circulation, and the organization of ex-Fred has degraded to point where NHC is no longer mentioning the system on their Tropical Weather Outlook. Water vapor satellite loops show that ex-Fred continues to suffer from dry air thanks to an upper-level low pressure system, and it is unlikely that Fred will ever regenerate. None of the computer models call for any tropical cyclones to develop anywhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 1. Two views of the eye of Super Typhoon Choi-wan. Left: the eye at 01:25 UTC 9/16/09, when Choi-wan was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Right: the eye at 03:40 UTC 9/17/09, when Choi-was was a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Image credit: MODIS Rapid Response System.

Typhoon Choi-Wan no longer a Category 5 storm
This year's first Category 5 tropical cycloneTyphoon Choi-Wan, has fallen to Category 4 strength after spending 42 hours as a 160 mph Category 5 storm. Choi-Wan--in Cantonese, a type of cloud--is over the open ocean south of Japan, and is not expected to impact any land areas. Choi-wan passed over tiny Alamagan Island, population 15, yesterday. All residents on the island were reported safe.

On this day twenty years ago
At 1 am AST on September 17, 1989, Hurricane Hugo made a direct hit Guadeloupe, pounding the island with Category 4 sustained winds of 140 mph. A storm surge of up to 2.5 meters (8 feet) topped by high battering waves smashed ashore. Hugo wreaked massive devastation on Guadeloupe, destroying 10,000 homes, leaving 35,000 of the island's 340,000 people homeless. Four people died and 107 were injured. An additional seven people were killed three days after the storm when a medical helicopter crashed while evacuating victims. Hugo's winds knocked the airport control tower out of commission, and almost completely destroyed the town of St. Francious, on the island's eastern end. Debris blocked at least 30% of the island's roads. Agriculture suffered massive losses that took years to recover from, as Hugo flattened 100% of the banana crop, 60% of the sugar cane crop, and ruined nearly all of the island's coconut palms. Most of the island's fishing fleet was wiped out, and total damage to the island from Hugo amounted to $880 million. Hugo was the strongest hurricane to hit the island since the legendary 1899 San Ciriaco Hurricane--the longest-lived Atlantic hurricane of all time--which brought 150 mph winds to Guadeloupe.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 17, 1989. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

Hugo continued northwest and pulverized its next target, the island of Montserrat, several hours later. Though the eye missed Monserrat, the severe right front quadrant of Hugo's eyewall, still packing sustained winds of 140 mph, pounded the island. Nearly every home on Monserrat was destroyed or heavily damaged, leaving 11,000 of the island's 12,000 people homeless. Numerous schools, hospitals, and churches were destroyed, along with the police department, the government headquarters, and the main power station. Twenty foot waves in the harbor of the main town, Plymouth, destroyed the 180-foot stone jetty, and heavy rains of up to seven inches created mudslides that at the foot of Chances Peak that destroyed 21 homes. Ten people were killed on Montserrat, 89 injured, and damage topped $260 million, making it the most expensive hurricane in the island's history. Elecrtic, water, and telephone service were disrupted for weeks, necessitating a massive U.S. and British relief effort.


Figure 3. Hugo's storm surge inundates the coast of Montserrat Island. Image credit: NOAA photo library.

The nearby islands of St. Kitts, Antigua, St. Martin, Anguilla, and Dominica did not receive a blow from Hugo's eyewall, but damage was heavy nonetheless. One person was killed on Antigua, and 30% of the homes damaged. Dominica suffered the loss of 80% of its banana crop, and landslides cut off many towns for days. Shoreline erosion damage and crop losses totaled $43 million on St. Kitts, where one person was killed.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Fred is NOT dead when it's still out there, it's not a TD nor TS either. Whoever predicted a category 4 hurricane yesterday out of it was probably on happy pills :)

I still won't be surprised if Fred becomes at least a TD at landfall. Sorry..
Also the GFS has Fred-ex an open trough yes but regardless of how the nature of the system appears on numerical models, the GFS is being correct about 1) dept (shallow) and 2) development (which Fred isnt doing).
Quoting Weather456:
Also the GFS has Fred-ex an open trough yes but regardless of how the nature of the system appears on numerical models, the GFS is being correct about 1) dept (shallow) and 2) development (which Fred isnt doing).


Correct
1504. IKE
Quoting hunkerdown:
OMG...cancel school, its evac time :)

on a more serious note, IKE, a fork will be stuck in this due to the cold weather, right ? ;0 ...sorry, just had to throw in sime early morning humor.


LOL...yeah, that never materialized either. That's twice models have called for it.
I'm out for skool

see ya
Looks like 07L is getting sheared by 20 knots of shear according to CIMMS. The NHC is correct this time, winds are not conductive for development at this time, may be favorable again later today or tomorrow. Conditions were actually favorable for formation yesterday, 07L just didn't do it. This kind of a situation can happen sometimes where a disturbance will have marginal to favorable conditions and will not do anything.
1507. IKE
From this mornings Miami,FL. discussion....

"LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE WHAT SEEM TO BE
THE REMNANTS OF "FRED" WILL MAKE IT TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY AS
THE LEFTOVER WAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THIS WILL NOT ONLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN POPS ONCE AGAIN, BUT
ALSO IN AN INCREASE IN THE EAST FLOW WITH AN INCREASE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. EVEN THOUGH "FRED" REMNANTS
WILL EITHER MOVE WEST OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE BY TUE, POPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SCT CATEGORY THROUGH THE WHOLE WEEK AS
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS WEST ADVECTING MORE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC."
1508. TomSal
RE: 1507 by IKE - What are "POPS"? Thanks.
Quoting TomSal:
RE: 1507 by IKE - What are "POPS"? Thanks.


Probability of Precipitation
1511. IKE
Quoting TomSal:
RE: 1507 by IKE - What are "POPS"? Thanks.


Chance of rain....
feeling good? tgif
1513. dsauder
Isn't interesting how the last 3 months of global sea surface temps have been at record highs while this year's hurricane season seems to have very little activity?
What are the chances 98L will take a slightly more southerly track due to the ridge in place that Weather456 alludes to in his blog?
Quoting dsauder:
Isn't interesting how the last 3 months of global sea surface temps have been at record highs while this year's hurricane season seems to have very little activity?


Both facts are due to El Nino.

Morning Storm. What's gonna kill off 98L?
Quoting hailcatcher:
What are the chances 98L will take a slightly more southerly track due to the ridge in place that Weather456 alludes to in his blog?


if you look at the track guidance note that most models take the higher route. Now one would think that a shallow system would head west (that being 98L does not develop), the weakness also appears in the shallow layer. So even though its a possibility that 98L could go south it appears to be a modest chance for now.
Good Morning Senior Chief mops and Brooms are manned and the Coffee Pot is on!
1519. WxLogic
Good morning...
1520. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED IS
CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

I'm not a bit surprise we have orange

Good Morning!

8AM TWO says Code Orange
Quoting IKE:


post 943....the stronger this puppy gets the likely it begins more WNW to NW. Hypothetically if this thing made Cat 4 id be more worried in SC than in SFL

98L has a shot if it can escape shear.


Ike, perhaps a little reading comprehension skills my benefit you bud. I made the statement "Hypothetically if" which infers exactly that. IF!! no where did I say FredEx was going to Cat 4 in fact I dont see it doing much of anything. Perhaps you should read some of the surrounding posts to better see the premise of my post. poster GatorWX mentioned that if fredex was stronger it would go toward SFL I simply made the point that a stronger Fred would move more NW and I'd be more concerned in SC than in SFL, noway nohow was I predicting a doomsday scenerio or anything of that type.

For the record though, I do work in Government GIS and a percentage of my position is in support of Emergency Management. included in this is disaster planning are these "what if" scenarios. we do drills every May for a Cat 4 Hurricane involving the national guard, state and local law enforcement etc. its needed and required by FEMA. So keep in mind there are folks out there (specifically Emergency mangement) that actually make careers off of "what ifs".
morning
Looks like some form of increase activity in the EATL. invest 98L ,an area with cyclonic turning 9N 29w. and two impressive waves to come off the African coast
1527. IKE
Quoting kanc2001:


Ike, perhaps a little reading comprehension skills my benefit you bud. I made the statement "Hypothetically if" which infers exactly that. IF!! no where did I say FredEx was going to Cat 4 in fact I dont see it doing much of anything. Perhaps you should read some of the surrounding posts to better see the premise of my post. poster GatorWX mentioned that if fredex was stronger it would go toward SFL I simply made the point that a stronger Fred would move more NW and I'd be more concerned in SC than in SFL, noway nohow was I predicting a doomsday scenerio or anything of that type.

For the record though, I do work in Government GIS and a percentage of my position is in support of Emergency Management. included in this is disaster planning are these "what if" scenarios. we do drills every May for a Cat 4 Hurricane involving the national guard, state and local law enforcement etc. its needed and required by FEMA. So keep in mind there are folks out there (specifically Emergency mangement) that actually make careers off of "what ifs".


I understood exactly what you meant. If it turned into a cat 4, etc.

The way that swirl looks, I don't think that hypothesis will come true.
Quoting StormW:
Well, right now, I don't know if anything is going to kill off 98L...won't get to start my analysis till 9:00 a.m.

456 is correct about the weakeness.

However, the 00Z update (which is the most recent) of the steering layers forecast shows the ridge building in about 36 hours, and 98L, if it doesn't get picked up right away, should head west.

PSU e-WALL STEERING FORECAST

I'll be back about 9ish.


I do use the 00Z models in my updates not the 12Z and yea i did state all that on my blog.


if 98L isnt pulled out to sea, the weakness leaves and the ridge rebuilds and force 98L back west beyond 5 days. Just like Fred, timing is crucial here so folks in the Lesser Antilles should check up on the progress of this disturbance.
1529. Relix
*Eyes on 98L* I knew you would be the one!!! =(. Die a happy death in water please XD
1530. Relix
By the way 456, your analysis are TOP NOTCH man. Really great, really good explaining, smooth, understandable. Props to you, really deserve them =)

G'morning everyone!
Gracias W456 and StormW, I have an "invested" interest in southerly storms coz I live in the southern antillies.
Quoting hailcatcher:
Gracias W456 and StormW, I have an "invested" interest in southerly storms coz I live in the southern antillies.


I live in the northern Antilles - Saint Kitts, where are you?
seem like a slow mover so far 98
2009 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
98L.INVEST

East Pacific
98E.INVEST
16E.MARTY

Central Pacific

West Pacific
15W.CHOI-WAN

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
Grenada
Relix,

morning and thanks
work time :( adios
Fred reminds me of my children when I ask them to clean there room........sort of sit there....move around a little bit....sit some more....lay on the bed.
Position update on the low formally known as Fred.


AL 07 2009091812 BEST 0 253N 660W 25 1013 LO

Updated update
DISTURBANCE FRED (AL072009) 20090918 1200 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.3N LONCUR = 66.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 24.9N LONM12 = 63.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 24.2N LONM24 = 59.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12Z SHIPS Text
Good morning!
Today is the anniversary date of the “Great Miami Hurricane” of 1926…a mere 83 years ago. It essentially started the Great Depression in Florida 3 years before the stock market crash (along with a host of shady real estate deals). One northern newspaper covering the storm declared the next day in a giant headline, “Florida Destroyed!” Well not quite, but we’re working on it…
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Position update on the low formally known as Fred.


AL 07 2009091812 BEST 0 253N 660W 25 1013 LO



Look for a re-gen of models today as Fred-Ex approaches the states.
1543. amd
a little windy in iwo jima this morning due to typhoon choi-wan...

81 °F
Light Showers Rain Mist
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 39 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 86 mph
Pressure: 29.15 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 87 °F
Visibility: 1.5 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 500 ft
Overcast 1000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 381 ft
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Position update on the low formally known as Fred.


AL 07 2009091812 BEST 0 253N 660W 25 1013 LO

Updated update
DISTURBANCE FRED (AL072009) 20090918 1200 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.3N LONCUR = 66.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 24.9N LONM12 = 63.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 24.2N LONM24 = 59.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12Z SHIPS Text


From nothing to 2 systems to keep tabs on in 24 hrs.
Quoting amd:
a little windy in iwo jima this morning...


Ghosts on sacred land...
Here's JB's take this morning.


FRIDAY 7 AM

FRED... OR FAVRE?

This is hanging on and trying more comebacks than Brett Favre.

Those of you who remember the pre forecast remember the idea that western atlantic would have more tracks this year and that we would have to watch out for erratic storms in the near coastal waters ( within a couple of hundred miles). If the past of this season is any forecast of the future then 2 things should be looked out for. 1) Fred, when within a couple of hundred miles of the coast, to be alive and kicking 2) if its north of 30 north, it wont be classified.

Dan Kottlowski pointed this out to me, that there seems to be a growing agenda in the hurricane center to rush to judgement as non tropical anything north of 30. Consider, a week ago today and the front page of the Atlantic City Press on Saturday looked as dramatic as any front page I ever saw down there after a named storm, we had a system that "blew up" in the coastal waters. north of 30 north but in temps that were over 80 degrees, The system had a well defined circulation that caused Gales on the NC coast a few days before Danny "blew up" in the coastal waters. July 24th "blew up" in the coastal waters. All three were non Classified, all three had land verified wind gusts as high or higher than Claudette, which also blow up in the coastal waters but was south of 30 north. By the way, the "symmetry" argument with Claudette falls to pieces by the time landfall was made as the center was north of the main convection. The Jersey Devil had all the convection NORTH and NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER indicating outflow as per a system with ridging over it and warming. I would still like to ask any tropical "expert" as to how thunderstorms were moving west north of such a center in baroclinic system when the wind was increasing toward the center, which was calm. If makes no sense since the COOLER AIR was outside the center, AS DEMONSTRATED CLEARLY when the center came over Wildwood. The Dewpoints rose to over 70, then as the wind went into the southwest as the center moved inland over south Jersey, they fell back to the mid 60s. The same thing had happened last year in late September with the no name at Myrtle beach. I dont know if TPC understands that over the last 2 years, they have presided over unheard of events in the tropical season... Last year, hurricane wind warnings with a storm over water that was till 83 degrees, in late September, but no name, and now this years, 3 separate gale events with no name in the heart of the hurricane season, all with traceable input from African waves, with no names.

I simply can not find anything like this and believe me, I have been searching. Remember the Jersey Devil was not "an old front" we were tracking the wave in front of Erica for a week as it moves slowly through the Bahamas with the upper low with it. The upper low peeled away and one could see 2 Fridays ago the system starting to gel.

All of these, to be sure, had "problems" with being textbook storms and when one looks at the barometric pressure of storms this year, this is one of the weakest seasons we have had since 1997, if not the weakest. And I am the first to acknowledge especially since it was forecasted to be that way this year. I will be surprised though if we dont have a real live hurricane hit the US this year, be it anywhere on our coast. To be sure, that one of these has not developed to that extent ( the three talked about here) is a burr in the saddle of my idea this year... I realize nobody is perfect, but when doing what I do, not being dead on gives people who dont want to see you doing what you do plenty of ammo to shoot with ( though to the objective person, a year like this much of that is shooting with blanks.. i think we can see that the idea of the down year was good one, and I started with that in March. In addition we can see what has been going on where all the storms so far, are outside of where they were running rampant last year, the tracks off to the northeast of that area, named or not. It is amazing that all these waves have found a way of getting west. Even the ones that have died, died without a recurve. Bill recurved, but still got the maritimes because it got back to 69.5. And Fred wave has made it into the western atlantic.

While many are bored stiff by this hurricane season, I find it to be fascinating. And once again the weather has so-operated with the US as far as not dealing us harsh blows when we were down ( remember 2001, no major hurricane hits). The cool summer in major energy consuming areas and lack of the kind of frenzied hurricane activity we saw in the gulf last year, both forecasted has been a blessing ( and a blessing to me, since one has to cherish the times one is in the ballpark, so dont get me wrong about my tone) But imagine if it was a scorching summer in the lakes and Ohio valley and northeast and a couple of big hurricanes had hit?

The opposite argument is that big hurricane hits spur on rebuilding. its amazing how one can find any argument for anything now-a-days. No question a company that makes money off repair would benefit, however they benefit if they know it is a down year and they can put their resources elsewhere, and also live to fight another day.

Boy this got longer than I thought, and I am not done

Now where was I before whoever took over me took over.. Oh yes erratic storm behavior this year.. look at the erratic behavior of the Jersey Devil, which is what I have named last week. It goes with the territory of the kind of season where there is not alot of true textbook storms that has me loudly singing TPC praise

lets look at some other years similar to this. The dance of Ginny in 1963... Dean of 1983 which came in a bit south of the Jersey Devil and with less wind, Gordon of 1994, Gustav which was a subtropical system in September of 2002. Now we have Fred, and there is a chance the WRF is seeing this the right way up to a point. In other words, Fred, which has hung on for a tropical as long and is making as many comebacks as Brett Favre, gets into the south atlantic states coastal waters and stalls. IN the meantime, the trough in the plains, which I dont think is going to feedback and cut off as much ( yesterday it was over the rockies, in the end it will wind up in the Ohio valley) will probably pick it up and take it north. So if Fred hangs on and comes back, its an east coast problem.

But what is the chance. I told my clients this morning that I dont know which would be more remarkable.. that it came all this way and still came back, or it came all this way and DIDNT. After all, if it has dodged this much hostility, and its coming toward a more favorable pattern ( northeast shear when a system is moving west means its heading toward, not away from the ridge) why shouldnt it come back.

Now the WRF is usually over done on such thing.. in fact I would say always except it nailed Claudette. In a way Fred has been so small, it hasnt been big enough to pull in enough dry air to kill it. Its a classic case of something being just right for its environment. A big hurricane coming into this would get weakened ( in fact Fred was a big hurricane at one time) But now, with the trough where it is early next week, the high where it is early next week, and whats left of Fred having the chance to be there, some interesting possibilities are on the table. If nothing else.

In fact if it comes back, the adjective phrases such as not yet dead Fred, or hanging on by a thread, Fred Or being torn into a shred Fred ( I just through of that) could be changed to Grateful Deadhead Fred... as a rejuvenated Fred would have had a long, strange journey.

Jerry Garcia is alive afterall, at least in many a Deadheads heart ( I am more Parrothead than Deadhead. I have a theory that there are only 75,000 Grateful Dead fans, but they bought their releases 10 times each so they would go platinum and followed them to every concert to make sure they sold out. This is all in my not yet finished memoir.. Diary of a Mad Meteorologist...the chapter on how rock n roll affects the weather, which is after the chapters on football and wrestling)

thanks for putting up with this

ciao for now ****
fred seems to like the bahamas area. a couple days ago it looked as if the last nail was set on the coffin
Good morning

98L is still fighting shear this morning with all the deep convection displaced to the East of the low center. Quikscat shows a well defined surface low but 20 knot Westerly winds on the Northern edge of the system will likely keep it in check for some time.

An anticyclone has developed overhead but like other highs we have seen this year it is rather small and will provide only limited support for the feature to develop. This is not the first such small high we have seen this season. The current environment in the mid Atl should allow 98L to simply hold its own but I do not expect any significant development in the short term due to onging shear.
1549. IKE
Bastardi won't let anything die. To take a phrase from Led Zep, he just rambles on...
1551. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Position update on the low formally known as Fred.


AL 07 2009091812 BEST 0 253N 660W 25 1013 LO

Updated update
DISTURBANCE FRED (AL072009) 20090918 1200 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.3N LONCUR = 66.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 24.9N LONM12 = 63.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 24.2N LONM24 = 59.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12Z SHIPS Text


Appears Fred's remnants have provided the persistence NHC was looking for to start running models on it.
CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1211 UTC FRI SEP 18 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE FRED (AL072009) 20090918 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090918 1200 090919 0000 090919 1200 090920 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 25.3N 66.0W 26.1N 67.8W 26.9N 69.6W 27.3N 71.0W

BAMD 25.3N 66.0W 25.5N 67.9W 25.7N 69.4W 25.7N 70.6W

BAMM 25.3N 66.0W 25.8N 67.8W 26.3N 69.3W 26.5N 70.4W

LBAR 25.3N 66.0W 25.9N 68.1W 26.6N 69.7W 27.1N 71.1W

SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS

DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090920 1200 090921 1200 090922 1200 090923 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 27.5N 73.1W 28.4N 77.3W 29.8N 81.0W 32.1N 83.9W

BAMD 25.8N 71.8W 26.2N 73.9W 26.6N 76.5W 27.4N 79.6W

BAMM 26.7N 71.8W 27.3N 74.6W 28.1N 77.6W 29.7N 80.6W

LBAR 27.1N 72.4W 26.6N 75.0W 26.5N 77.8W 26.8N 81.3W

SHIP 44KTS 50KTS 55KTS 58KTS

DSHP 44KTS 50KTS 55KTS 58KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 25.3N LONCUR = 66.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

LATM12 = 24.9N LONM12 = 63.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT

LATM24 = 24.2N LONM24 = 59.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Quoting IKE:
Bastardi won't let anything die. To take a phrase from Led Zep, he just rambles on...


Good phrase. Now I will sing that in my head all day!
FredEx back up on the FNMOC page...

2009 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
98L.INVEST
07L.FRED

East Pacific
98E.INVEST
16E.MARTY

Central Pacific

West Pacific
15W.CHOI-WAN


INV/98/L
MARK
13.3N/38.7W
"At last the sun is shining, The clouds of blue roll by,
With flames from the dragon of darkness, the sunlight blinds his eyes."
The BAMMS held on to it, look for the GFDL and HWRF later today. Interesting the BAMMD being the southern most.
Fred is doing fine example of the Black Knight from Monty Python's The Holy Grail.

Quoting Cotillion:
Fred is doing fine example of the Black Knight from Monty Python's The Holy Grail.



It's just a flesh wound!
1560. ncstorm
Good Morning everyone!

Does ex-Fred have to regenerate into an invest before we have model runs on it again?
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning everyone!

Does ex-Fred have to regenerate into an invest before we have model runs on it again?


Models have already been run.
I don't exFred will amount to much, I think 98L might be the one to watch, fairly low in Lat. barely above 12N according to quikscat at around 4am.
Choi-Wan has developed a massive eyewall!!!


1568. IKE
Quoting mikatnight:
"At last the sun is shining, The clouds of blue roll by,
With flames from the dragon of darkness, the sunlight blinds his eyes."


One of my favorites...Link
Quoting mikatnight:
Good morning!
Today is the anniversary date of the %u201CGreat Miami Hurricane%u201D of 1926%u2026a mere 83 years ago. It essentially started the Great Depression in Florida 3 years before the stock market crash (along with a host of shady real estate deals). One northern newspaper covering the storm declared the next day in a giant headline, %u201CFlorida Destroyed!%u201D Well not quite, but we%u2019re working on it%u2026


I read a detailed account of that storm. An amazing and interesting story for anyone interested in hurricanes and weather (...AND survival!)

Great link for info and books:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/?n=okeechobee
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982009) 20090918 1200 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 39.2W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 37.9W DIRM12 = 246DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 36.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


07L/DIS/FRED
MARK
25.4N/66.3
1575. Grothar
Boy, did I get blasted last night. They called the invest after 10:00 PM last night and a few people mentioned it including me. Everone kept saying it was official. Wait until its official. I told them it was official. Look back at the blogs after 10:30 last night if you have time. StormW was still on. The kept saying it wasn't declared by the NAVY, yet it clearly has an invest floater. I was going to explain that the only reasing it was not being posted was the mess-up between 97L and 97E which was mentioned in an earlier blog here, which was quite true. The reason they didn't post the number 98L, was a because of a discussion not to callit 97L. But I didn't waste my time. I don't think people on here are aware where I work?????? You should all have figured it out by now, by my comments.

This is just an argument update in case you all missed the fun last time. Got hot for a while.
98L looks more like danny uder a lot of shear


has for fred its done in my books it been done/gone from the start of SEP 12th and the talk about fred is starting too get old it dies it comes back ir dies it comes back is geting old has well wish fred makes up its mine on what it wants to do or i may have a cold front come down and pick up fred and this take him a long with it


this is geting old
Quoting surfsidesindy:


I read a detailed account of that storm. An amazing and interesting story for anyone interested in hurricanes and weather (AND survival!)


Yes. I believe the publicity from that storm caused a more general knowledge of hurricanes, specifically that they can have a calm center, followed quickly by resurgence of hurricane force winds. Many people were cut to pieces when they ventured out into the eye, thinking the storm had passed…
Quoting Tazmanian:
98L looks more like danny uder a lot of shear


has for fred its done in my books it been done/gone from the start of SEP 12th and the talk about fred is starting too get old it dies it comes back ir dies it comes back is geting old has well wish fred makes up its mine on what it wants to do or i may have a cold front come down and pick up fred and this take him a long with it


this is geting old
its zombie fred taz
Quoting Tazmanian:
this is geting old


Reminds me of the quote from the bully in "Everybody Hates Cris", "It never gets old, and I never get tired."
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its zombie fred taz



i like it



for now on all fred most be called zombie fred and no other name for it other then that


ok
1581. Grothar
Quoting mikatnight:


Yes. I believe the publicity from that storm caused a more general knowledge of hurricanes, specifically that they can have a calm center, followed quickly by resurgence of hurricane force winds. Many people were cut to pieces when they ventured out into the eye, thinking the storm had passed…


Hey Mik, How are ya! Long time no hear. Hope all is well!!! See me get blasted last night for saying they had a new invest and no one believed me. First time I ever got dumped on. Not a nice feeling. All I wrote was a little line "We have a new invest!" WOW. I should have kept my mouth shut. You would have thought I said something awful.
It's so slow in here this morning...
1583. Grothar
Quoting Tazmanian:
98L looks more like danny uder a lot of shear


has for fred its done in my books it been done/gone from the start of SEP 12th and the talk about fred is starting too get old it dies it comes back ir dies it comes back is geting old has well wish fred makes up its mine on what it wants to do or i may have a cold front come down and pick up fred and this take him a long with it


this is geting old


Boy Taz, last time I defend you. WE both got it for declaring the invest. You still on since last night???
Funny Fred
Freaky Fred
Finely Fred
Foolish Fred
Frumpy Fred
I’m thinkin’ it should start with an “F”
Of course, if it ever hit anyone and caused damage it would surely be
F***in’ Fred.
But that ain’t gonna happen so probably just Friendly Fred.
Fred has a lot of convection on SE side now. Some may even be building into the shear.

Could get very interesting for next two days.
And now, for your extended forecast: "Foooorrrcaaaasssstt"
Quoting mikatnight:
Funny Fred
Freaky Fred
Finely Fred
Foolish Fred
Frumpy Fred
I’m thinkin’ it should start with an “F”
Of course, if it ever hit anyone and caused damage it would surely be
F***in’ Fred.
But that ain’t gonna happen so probably just Friendly Fred.


Just remember, the freaky small Fred was once a giant. He's been tenacious thus far and hopefully he isn't given the chance to breath
Hi Grothar!
Yeah, still plugging along. Haven't been on much since work picked up quite a bit. Glad to see you as always. As far as getting "dumped on", what StormW said...
1590. NEwxguy
Quoting mikatnight:
Funny Fred
Freaky Fred
Finely Fred
Foolish Fred
Frumpy Fred
I’m thinkin’ it should start with an “F”
Of course, if it ever hit anyone and caused damage it would surely be
F***in’ Fred.
But that ain’t gonna happen so probably just Friendly Fred.


How about fakin it Fred
LBAR still holding onto that across the continental divide solution for Marty...at least it isn't into Kansas any more.

1592. Grothar
Quoting StormW:
Grothar,
Don't ever worry about being blasted...the best thing one can do as a forecaster is state what he sees, and stick by it.


StormW, I spend my life avoiding confrontation. But wouldn't you assume by now that most of the bloggers have figured out where I work, I know you have figured it out. Just do not mention it.
Did you know...
The wind is like the air, only pushier.
the ridge is forcing 98L WSW. now at 12.6N 39.8W. this will enable to miss that weakness and continue west the next few days
Quoting Grothar:
Boy, did I get blasted last night. They called the invest after 10:00 PM last night and a few people mentioned it including me. Everone kept saying it was official. Wait until its official. I told them it was official. Look back at the blogs after 10:30 last night if you have time. StormW was still on. The kept saying it wasn't declared by the NAVY, yet it clearly has an invest floater. I was going to explain that the only reasing it was not being posted was the mess-up between 97L and 97E which was mentioned in an earlier blog here, which was quite true. The reason they didn't post the number 98L, was a because of a discussion not to callit 97L. But I didn't waste my time. I don't think people on here are aware where I work?????? You should all have figured it out by now, by my comments.

This is just an argument update in case you all missed the fun last time. Got hot for a while.

Guess I am too slow to figure out where you work by your comments.
Something between Publix and AOML?
Quoting mikatnight:
Did you know...
The wind is like the air, only pushier.



Quote of the day! LMAO!
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
18/1145 UTC 13.4N 39.0W T1.0/1.5 98L
18/0600 UTC 13.0N 38.5W T1.5/1.5 INVEST
17/2345 UTC 12.6N 37.4W T1.0/1.0 INVEST
Quoting atmoaggie:

Guess I am too slow to figure out where you work by your comments.
Something between Publix and AOML?


Good one, Aggie!
And just in case anyone was wondering:
The Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) is one of the Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) Facilities of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NOAA/AOML is a part of the US Department of Commerce (DOC) and is located in Miami, Florida. AOML's mission is to conduct basic and applied research in oceanography, tropical meteorology, atmospheric and oceanic chemistry, and acoustics. The research seeks to understand the physical characteristics and processes of the ocean and the atmosphere, both separately and as a coupled system.
How bout


Fool'em Fred.

Funky Fred

Falsely Fred

Quick! Somebody get me a theasaurus!
Fake'em out Fred?
Come on, Grothar, fess up! You've got everyone's curiosity peeked…
Quoting stormpetrol:
I don't exFred will amount to much, I think 98L might be the one to watch, fairly low in Lat. barely above 12N according to quikscat at around 4am.
problem is xfred has alot of warm water to go fred might be fred again
Percent of normal rainfall for the last week (Normal as determined by some number of years worth radar-detected average rainfall for this week).

That is quite enough, thanks, move on dammit.



Look at the great Arkansas drought.
Depending on circumstances, could be Flourishing Fred, or Floundering Fred…
Ahh...yes StormW...how tricky, going to the ph's - I think you nailed it.
Yeah Grothar~ At least wu-mail me. Inquiring minds...

Your so right though..To see people on here settle at pre-invest was such a show of refusal to admit they were wrong & to learn from it. But you can only present facts so many ways.
"Force Five Fred" - in an astounding comeback.
"StormW, I spend my life avoiding confrontation. But wouldn't you assume by now that most of the bloggers have figured out where I work, I know you have figured it out. Just do not mention it."

I don't really think that where you work is that important to most of us. I don't think that anyone is really trying to "figure it out".
Quoting mikatnight:


Good one, Aggie!
And just in case anyone was wondering:
The Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) is one of the Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) Facilities of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NOAA/AOML is a part of the US Department of Commerce (DOC) and is located in Miami, Florida. AOML's mission is to conduct basic and applied research in oceanography, tropical meteorology, atmospheric and oceanic chemistry, and acoustics. The research seeks to understand the physical characteristics and processes of the ocean and the atmosphere, both separately and as a coupled system.

I actually had a job offer at RSMAS on Virginia Key. RSMAS is the other place, besides AOML, on that little island.
AOML has the north half, RSMAS the southern half (but the RSMAS "half" is bigger, I think.)
1610. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:

Guess I am too slow to figure out where you work by your comments.
Something between Publix and AOML?


Publix. I stand outside and assess the weather in the event our customers need umbrellas. Very astute atmoaggie. Not trying to ingratiate myself with you, but you do write interesting blogs with factual information and quite a bit of wit. That is always a winning combination. You usually stand your ground as well. Now where are those "sophisticated" models which Patrap usually posts on the blog. Where is 98L going?
Quoting Skyepony:
Yeah Grothar~ At least wu-mail me. Inquiring minds...

Your so right though..To see people on here settle at pre-invest was such a show of refusal to admit they were wrong & to learn from it. But you can only present facts so many ways.

Yeah, I decided not to get involved in that last night. Some discussions here become less civil than one about AGW, if you can believe that.
Looking at the direction of the clouds ahead of 98L it is apparent that 98L will be moving WSW for sometime
1613. IKE
NEW BLOG!!!!!
Right now, I'm working on updating the forecasts on the Florida Weather Page on the CCHS Weather Center site, but I have finished updating the Atlantic Hurricane Watch page. Below you will find my Tropical Update.



CCHS Weather Center Tropical Update

For Friday, September 18, 2009 at 9:00AM EST

Fred Trying to Return from the Dead


Over a week ago, Hurricane Fred trolled the Eastern Atlantic strengthening to become the season's second major hurricane before meeting a remarkable swift death just two days later due to just brutal upper level winds. Well, it seems the remnants from ex-Hurricane Fred have been attempting to make a comeback as the surface spin has returned and thunderstorms continue to try and form over and around this spin. Even despite this comeback attempt, conditions around this system remain somewhat non-conducive for this to re-develop into anything significant. The remnants should continue moving west into the Bahamas over the weekend and move over Southern or Central Florida come early next week bringing a higher rain chance and an increase in easterly winds over the area.

Invest 98L Forms in East Atlantic

A tropical wave that came off Africa about five days ago has been showing signs of life overnight which caused the National Hurricane Center to begin running computer models and tracking the system as Invest 98L. An Invest means that the disturbance is being monitored for further development, but it doesn't guarantee a system will develop. Overnight, showers and thunderstorms really blossomed over the surface spin that had developed over the past few days. Thus far, the computer models don't show much development with this system as they show a weak tropical cyclone at best due to the same upper level winds that caused the demise of Fred. Right now, the National Hurricane Center has given this system a medium chance to become a tropical cyclone and I would have to agree with them. We will just have to watch the system to see whether it continues to become better organized.
"I actually has a job offer at RSMAS on Virginia Key."

I actually have a job offer...

Sorry... lol ... I really don't care if anyone on here speels correctly all the time or not but you are always quick to correct mine so I thought that I would return the favor.
Quoting Grothar:


Publix. I stand outside and assess the weather in the event our customers need umbrellas. Very astute atmoaggie. Not trying to ingratiate myself with you, but you do write interesting blogs with factual information and quite a bit of wit. That is always a winning combination. You usually stand your ground as well. Now where are those "sophisticated" models which Patrap usually posts on the blog. Where is 98L going?

Like these?
Early cycle:




Little to show in late cycle models as of yet.
Quoting iluvjess:
"I actually has a job offer at RSMAS on Virginia Key."

I actually have a job offer...

Sorry... lol ... I really don't care if anyone on here speels correctly all the time or not but you are always quick to correct mine so I thought that I would return the favor.

Oops.
And your assumption is incorrect. I had a job offer. Since denied.
Good Morning Everyone!

All this focus on 98L...and very little on ex-Fred...

Ex-Fred's low level circulation is MUCH better defined this morning on visible satellite imagery and deep convection is firing close to the center.

He's almost back to being a TD. The northeasterly shear is still strong and is forecast to only slowly ease over the next 36 hours.

Late in the forecast 72-96 hours...large scale ridging builds off the east coast of the US and the upper level winds become very weak - aka the shear is forecast to become favorable.

The more stuff I look at, the more I'm starting to convince myself that this could be a threat to the East Coast...

The only caveat is that it needs to survive over the next 24-36 hours in the face of moderate shear


1619. Buhdog
i still think fred-ex is the most clever and depicting
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Good Morning Everyone!

All this focus on 98L...and very little on ex-Fred...

Ex-Fred's low level circulation is MUCH better defined this morning on visible satellite imagery and deep convection is firing close to the center.

He's almost back to being a TD. The northeasterly shear is still strong and is forecast to only slowly ease over the next 36 hours.

Late in the forecast 72-96 hours...large scale ridging builds off the east coast of the US and the upper level winds become very weak - aka the shear is forecast to become favorable.

The more stuff I look at, the more I'm starting to convince myself that this could be a threat to the East Coast...

The only caveat is that it needs to survive over the next 24-36 hours in the face of moderate shear




Based on what he's gone through thus far, that seems rather insignificant doesn't it.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



I figured I'd be smack in the middle of the BAMMS track, South Florida might be spared from the disturbance.
The shear map shows 5-15 knots where "Double 07L" is heading to, "Double 07L" could make a comeback before landfall, this has been my feeling for a while.



Notice a large area of favorable condition in the Bahamas. An Anticyclonic flow should keep conditions good for Fred once "Double 07L" exits the 20 knot shear and gets into very warm waters and low wind shear for the first time since he was a Hurricane. A Tropical Depression or Storm at landfall is not out of the realm of possibility.
aggie good your on! What is the MJO forecast for late Sept- early Oct, still an upward pulse?
1624. Dakster
Quoting StormW:
Phantom Fred


He he. LOL... ROFLMAO.. I almost sharted...