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Global Extreme Temperatures in 2014: 3 All-Time National Cold Records, 2 Heat Records

By: Jeff Masters 2:26 PM GMT on January 07, 2015

Despite the fact that 2014 will likely be classified as Earth's warmest year in history in an announcement due from NOAA on January 16, the year was not a notable one for all-time national heat records. Two nations tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history in 2014, and three territories set all-time cold records. For comparison, five countries and three territories set all-time hottest temperature records in 2013; the most all-time national heat records in a year was twenty nations and one territory in 2010. Since 2010, 45 nations or territories (out of a total of 235) have set or tied all-time heat records, and four have set all-time cold temperature records. Since each of those years ranked as one of the top twelve warmest years in Earth's recorded history (with 2010 being the warmest year on record), this sort of disparity in national heat and cold records is to be expected. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. I use as my source for international weather records Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of these national heat and cold records for 235 nations and territories on wunderground.com's extremes page.

New all-time national and territorial heat records set in 2014
Iran set a new all-time heat record of 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Gotvand on 17 July, which tied the record set at Dehloran on 28 July 2011.

Latvia set a new all-time heat record of 37.8°C (100°F) at Ventspils on 4 August. Previous record: 36.4°C at Daugavpils on 4 August 1943.

New all-time territorial cold records set in 2014
Heard and McDonald Islands (uninhabited territory of Australia) set a new all-time cold record of -11.5°C (11.3°F) at The Split. Previous record: -10.6°C at Atlas Cove on 2 August 1949.

French Southern and Antarctic Lands (French territory) set a new all-time cold record of -9.5°C (14.9°F) at Port Aux Francais on 11 August. Previous record: -9.4°C at the same location on 27 June 1953.

Wallis and Futuna (French territory) set an all-time cold record of 18.0°C (64.4°F) at Hihifo on 13 July. Previous record: 18.4°C at the same location on 9 July 1978 and 26 August 2003.

Notable global heat and cold records set in 2014
Hottest temperature in the world in 2014: 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Gotvand, Iran on 17 July
Coldest temperature in the world in 2014: -80.8°C (-113.4°F) at Vostok, Antarctica, 20 August
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 49.3°C (120.7°F) at Moomba Aero, Australia, 2 January
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -63.3°C (-81.9°F) at Summit GEO, Greenland, 23 March

Number of major world stations which set their all time highest temperature in 2014: 198 (for comparison, this was 389 in 2013.)

Number of major world stations which set their all time lowest temperature in 2014: 15 (for comparison, this was 12 in 2013.)

New high temperature records in world capitals in 2014
Minsk, Belarus reached 35.6°C (96.1°F) on 3 August, beating the old record of 35.0°C set on 29 July 1936.

Jakarta, Indonesia reached 37.0°C (98.6°F) on 24 September, beating the old record of 36.8°C set on 2 October 2006.

A big thanks goes to Maximiliano Herrera for providing the information in this post.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Aberdeen, SD is at 1054.4 mb.
At least it is nice and warm in South Florida, just wish Scott would allow some rain to make it's way into South Florida as he seems to be hogging all the rain in Central Florida.
Quoting 2. NativeSun:

At least it is nice and warm in South Florida, just wish Scott would allow some rain to make it's way into South Florida as he seems to be hogging all the rain in Central Florida.


Seems to be typical for this time of the year. Most of the rain that affects C FL during the dry season is caused by fronts, whether passing or stalled. The fronts always seem to fizzle out by the time they make it to S FL as the upper level energy retreats to the NE. It always amazes me that S FL seems to end up with more rainfall than Tampa practically every year given this.
For comparison purposes:

Sorry for the misunderstaning . Wallis and Futuna has obiously beaten its all time LOWEST temperature (not highest). It is a tropical archipielago in Oceania, a French Territory.
(still some new year champagne to digest )
Dr Masters,

The record shown for Wallis and Fortuna must surely be a record LOW since those islands are located in the tropical South Pacific region and July is their "winter"?
Thank you, Dr. Jeff Masters!
Thanks Jeff...
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service New Orleans la
718 am CST Wednesday Jan 7 2015

Previous discussion... /issued 605 am CST Wednesday Jan 7 2015/

Potentially dangerous combination of very cold temperatures and
brisk north winds expected tonight into Thursday morning.

Short term /today through Friday night/...
busy morning here dealing with a variety of cold and wind hazards
through Thursday morning...a low to medium confidence light
freezing precipitation potential for areas mainly west of I-55
Friday morning...and a low confidence/slight potential of light
freezing rain again Friday evening
.

Starting with the cold and wind...the advertised/forecast pattern
is still the same as the past few days. Upper pattern will remain
increasingly amplified with strong ridge over the West Coast
states and western Canada...and trough over eastern
states...allowing for a tap of unusually strong and large
surface high pressure associated with very Arctic air moving south
and southeast across the central and eastern U.S. And Gulf of
Mexico. This may be an all-time record high pressure /near 1060
mb or well over 31 inches of Mercury/ for many areas of the
northern and Central Plains /as stated in the model diagnostic
discussion from the National Weather Service weather prediction center/. The center of
the elongated high pressure ridge is expected to maintain at least
1040 mb late tonight/early Thursday morning as it pushes through
the lower Ohio Valley and into the lower Mississippi Valley and
Texas.

Model guidance is fairly consistent...and the wind driven cold
tonight /no surface inversion/ is likely to be slightly better
handled by the raw model temperatures or a blend of the raw model
blend and mav/met MOS guidance. Using this approach...have not
made much change to the previous forecast with lows as cold as the
middle teens in southwest Mississippi...upper teens to lower 20s near
I-12 to Mississippi Gulf Coast. One notable change...the strength
of the north winds across Lake Pontchartrain tonight will not
have ample time over water to pick up much maritime warmth...and
the raw models/soundings reasonably show this with only a 5 degree
spread from North Shore to South Shore. Given this...it is likely
most of the South Shore will see lows in the middle 20s with ample
time below 28 degrees along with strong winds to freeze
unprotected pipes. Have upgraded the freeze watch for metropolitan New
Orleans to a hard freeze warning. Otherwise...other areas were
converted from the hard freeze/freeze watch to the same warning.

Regarding winds and wind chills...north winds are expected rise
into the 20 to 25 miles per hour range in most areas...especially near the
coast this afternoon where 25 to 30 miles per hour winds with frequent higher
gusts expected in all areas. Have issued a Wind Advisory for all
areas from noon to 6 PM today for all areas...except continuing
through tonight for areas south of Lake Pontchartrain where they
may peak in the 25 to 35 miles per hour range this evening with gusts as high
as 45 miles per hour. Not surprisingly...this much wind combined with very
cold temperatures will produce wind chill or /feel like/
temperatures ranging from about 5 degrees north to the lower teens
south
. This is a rather rare event for our region...and although
this is not official since climate records have not been
scrutinized...wind chills this cold may typically occur only 2 or
3 times every 10 to 20 years
...at least since the 90s. A Wind
Chill Advisory has been posted for all areas except the immediate
southeast Louisiana coast from midnight tonight through 9 am
Thursday.

The strength of the cold airmass is expected to hold the high
temperatures down in the upper 30s to lower 40s despite mostly
sunny skies. This normally would set up the next night to be
equally as cold...however middle and high level clouds are expected
to become broken to overcast during the evening or around
midnight. These clouds will be developing as a disturbance over
western Mexico brings some rain to Texas...and possibly a wintry
mix of light rain and sleet to eastern Texas and southwest
Louisiana
. The lows Thursday night are expected to range from the
middle 20s to the lower 30s. Would not be surprised to see a few
sleet pellets fall across areas as far east as Baton Rouge.


This leads to our next forecast problem...timing of onset of
precipitation and temperatures Friday morning. There is a 20 to
30 percent chance of precipitation during the 6 am to 9 am time
frame west of I-55...and temperatures are forecast to be near or
below freezing during that time. GFS buffer soundings at Baton
Rouge show saturation occurring from about 4000 feet up to just
over 20000 feet with dry air below 3000 feet with wet bulb
temperatures well below freezing. This would favor either a
rain/sleet mix or freezing rain/sleet mix depending on
temperatures
. Once again...this is with only a 20 to 30 percent
chance of precipitation at this time...however this will have to
be monitored because just a trace to very low measurable event can
have some impacts on bridges and overpasses.

Any precipitation on Friday should become all rain with possibly a
few sleet pellets late morning to midday Friday...then all rain
Friday afternoon as precipitation mostly ends. As mentioned at the
beginning of this discussion...there is lower confidence...but
still a non-zero threat of freezing precipitation late Friday
afternoon or Friday evening if moisture sticks around a few hours
longer than currently shown in the quantitative precipitation forecast fields of the models. In
fact...even though quantitative precipitation forecast is not depicted...the models do have some
low end probability of precipitation for Friday night while the low levels approach or
drop below freezing over the north and west near McComb and Baton
Rouge. At this time...have not included mention of any freezing or
frozen precipitation Friday afternoon...and have Friday night dry.
This could change if models begin to trend towards showing quantitative precipitation forecast.

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday night/...

Fortunately...there are no concerns of wintry cold or
precipitation during this period. There could be some light rain
from overrunning precipitation and minor disturbances aloft in the
southern stream. The highest rain chances at this point are 30 to
40 percent Sunday through Monday. Temperatures are expected to
moderate with highs returning closer to seasonal normals. 22/dew point

(Snipped sounding, aviation & marine discussions)
One for more the books last year was Anchorage, Alaska had no days with temps less than 0ºF. Looking at records it is more of a trend than a fluke.

Very chilly start in S C IL this a.m. thanks to 20 mph N-NW winds gusting to 35. 4 or 5 at two closest reporting (SW one actually colder), -1 to -6 dew pts, -10 to -13 w.c., pressures highest I've seen 30.72-3" up from 30.69" just 30 min ago before started reading the blog. Still sticking w/ the -4 forecast for tomorrow morning, hope the winds moderate a little. Closing schools for the cold even though no snow on the roads. I could see tomorrow maybe, but w/ no blowing snow, seems a little overly cautious.

Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated 5 sec ago


Partly Cloudy

Partly Cloudy


-1.7 °F

Feels Like -19 °F
Quoting 4. Neapolitan:

For comparison purposes:




yes Napo.
Would you like to make a chart with highest/lowest for stations too ?
Stations with reliable series and POR at least since early 70s

You can count them since 2002 here

http://www.mherrera.org/records.htm

With Google Search if you include min. or max. you will have the numbers of entries, just double check it and it is easy to sum up the number of records.
Cheers
good morning.....walked out of the house to a toasty 35 degrees.....we'll warm up to the low 50's by noon...and then see temps drop as a cold front makes it ways though.....precip chances still at 10 percent tonight...but snow and sleet have been ruled out in favor of freezing rain.....biggest weather player will be the wind this afternoon....wind at 30 35 and gusts above 45

sad news yesterday afternoon as a mental health doctor was shot and killed yesterday at the ft bliss va....a man dedicated to helping people shows us the inherit dangers of this profession....
Thanks Doc.
Quoting 10. Skyepony:

One for more the books last year was Anchorage, Alaska had no days with temps less than 0ºF. Looking at records it is more of a trend than a fluke.




Yikes...

Must be that global cooling at work...
Quoting 3. tampabaymatt:



Seems to be typical for this time of the year. Most of the rain that affects C FL during the dry season is caused by fronts, whether passing or stalled. The fronts always seem to fizzle out by the time they make it to S FL as the upper level energy retreats to the NE. It always amazes me that S FL seems to end up with more rainfall than Tampa practically every year given this.


Because South Florida has a more extreme and longer lasting rainy season, some places average more than 6 inches for 6 months straight, and most places average near 10 inches at least 2 out of those months. Average precip in most of far south Florida is anywhere from 55-70 inches and typically 45-55 of that falls during the rain season. North Florida has the least pronounced rain season, but gets more rain in a lot of the cooler months than areas further north and further south. The Northern gulf coast from Louisiana through north Florida is wetter than anywhere else in the winter into the spring except the Pacific Northwest, and it still has a summer rainy season, just not as pronounced, the combination of the two is why North Florida is also a bit wetter than Central Florida on average for yearly precip.

Warming of the oceans over time will likely lead to increased rainy season precip because the general result is more moist and unstable airmasses for increased afternoon convection, but possibly less dry season precip as the the extratropical storm track I would think would shift north in a warming world, pulling Florida farther away from the energy and lift provided from a extra-tropical low during the winter and spring.


My guess then would be that South Florida over time would benefit the most rainfall wise from global warming since it already relies mostly on the rain season.

While North Florida may benefit the least if winter and Spring precip decreases since it makes up a good portion of the yearly rain.

It's hard to say though, I'm just speculating.
Quoting maxcrc:


yes Napo.
Would you like to make a chart with highest/lowest for stations too ?
Stations with reliable series and POR at least since early 70s

You can count them since 2002 here

http://www.mherrera.org/records.htm

With Google Search if you include min. or max. you will have the numbers of entries, just double check it and it is easy to sum up the number of records.
Cheers
Thanks for all the work you do, Max. Your dedication is amazing, and much appreciated.

Okay, using those data, I've created three additional graphs:







Yeah, I'd say the truth is there in black and white. Well, blue and red... ;-)
Already 30.78" (N) & 30.75" (SW), avg winds picking up a bit and getting more northerly. Will be interesting to see how high it gets here. I think a max slightly over 31" was mentioned for Spfld, MO in yesterday's blog, it was the closest one to us mentioned.
Warming of the oceans over time will likely lead to increased rainy season precip because the general result is more moist and unstable airmasses for increased afternoon convection, but possibly less dry season precip as the the extratropical storm track I would think would shift north in a warming world, pulling Florida farther away from the energy and lift provided from a extra-tropical low during the winter and spring.


sounds good...however at least for south florida....the experts expect the opposite.....


Climate Impacts in the SoutheastMap of the Southeast including: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, and eastern Texas.
Impacts and Adaptation Home


I
Key Points
Coastal communities in the Southeast will likely face sea level rise, increased hurricane intensity, and storm surge, among other climate change impacts.
Higher temperatures, longer periods between rainfall events, and greater demand for water will likely strain water resources in the Southeast.
Incidences of extreme weather, increased temperatures, and flooding will likely impact human health.
Higher temperatures will likely affect the growth and productivity of crops and forests in the region.
Related Links
EPA:
Climate Change and Water: Southeast
EPA Region 3 (including the Southeast state of VA)
EPA Region 4 (including the Southeast states of AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, and TN)
EPA Region 6 (including the Southeast states of AR, LA, and TX)
Climate Change, Wildlife, and Wildlands Toolkit: Everglades and South Florida Case Study
EPA Climate Ready Estuaries
Other:
USGCRP, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: Southeast
USGCRP, Synthesis Assessment Product 4.1, Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region
USGCRP, Synthesis Assessment Product 4.7, Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure —Gulf Coast Study
Florida Center for Environmental Studies Exit EPA Disclaimer
NOAA: State of the Coast
NOAA: Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer
Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Coastal Wetlands and Global Climate Change, Gulf Coast Wetland Sustainability in a Changing Climate (PDF) Exit EPA Disclaimer
Over 70 million people live in the Southeast. [1] The region includes many cities with populations over 250,000, including Houston, Jacksonville, Charlotte, Atlanta, Miami, and New Orleans. [1] The region's economy includes forestry, tourism, oil and gas production, and agriculture. The Southeast also includes 29,000 miles of coastline. [2]

The region's climate is generally warm and wet, with mild and humid winters. Since 1970, average annual temperatures in the region have increased by about 2°F. [3] Winters, in particular, are getting warmer. The average number of freezing days has declined by four to seven days per year since the mid-1970s. [3] Most areas, with the exception of southern Florida, are getting wetter. Autumn precipitation has increased by 30% since 1901. The number of heavy downpours has increased in many parts of the region. [3] Despite increases in fall precipitation, the area affected by moderate and severe drought, especially in the spring and summer, has increased since the mid-1970s. [3]

Average annual temperatures in the region are projected to increase by 4 to 9°F by 2080. [3] Hurricane-related rainfall is projected to continue to increase. Precipitation in southern Florida will likely decrease. It is unclear how precipitation will change in the rest of the region. Climate models are currently inconclusive as to whether the net change will be an increase or decrease. Models do suggest that rainfall will arrive in heavier downpours with increased dry periods between storms. These changes would increase the risk of both flooding and drought. [3] The coasts will likely experience stronger hurricanes and sea level rise. Storm surge could present problems for coastal communities and ecosystems. [3]
Hard Freeze Warnings and Freeze Warnings are in effect late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for all of southeast Louisiana and extreme southern Mississippi (hard freeze the larger area in purple and the freeze in darker purple/blue coastal southeast Louisiana). Temperatures will fall into the mid teens to mid 20s across the hard freeze warning area and into the upper 20s and lower 30s across the freeze warning area. Precautions should be taken to protect any vulnerable people, pets, pipes, and plants before the onset of freezing conditions.


In addition to the Freeze Warnings, Wind Chill Advisories are also posted for late tonight and early Thursday morning across most of the area for wind chill readings expected to lower to 5 to 13 degrees. Last but not least, Wind Advisories (over land) and Gale Warnings (over tidal lakes, sounds and coastal waters) are in effect across the entire area this afternoon into tonight.



Quoting Jedkins01:


Because South Florida has a more extreme and longer lasting rainy season, some places average more than 6 inches for 6 months straight, and most places average near 10 inches at least 2 out of those months. Average precip in most of far south Florida is anywhere from 55-70 inches and typically 45-55 of that falls during the rain season. North Florida has the least pronounced rain season, but gets more rain in a lot of the cooler months than areas further north and further south. The Northern gulf coast from Louisiana through north Florida is wetter than anywhere else in the winter into the spring except the Pacific Northwest, and it still has a summer rainy season, just not as pronounced, the combination of the two is why North Florida is also a bit wetter than Central Florida on average for yearly precip.

Warming of the oceans over time will likely lead to increased rainy season precip because the general result is more moist and unstable airmasses for increased afternoon convection, but possibly less dry season precip as the the extratropical storm track I would think would shift north in a warming world, pulling Florida farther away from the energy and lift provided from a extra-tropical low during the winter and spring.


My guess then would be that South Florida over time would benefit the most rainfall wise from global warming since it already relies mostly on the rain season.

While North Florida may benefit the least if winter and Spring precip decreases since it makes up a good portion of the yearly rain.

It's hard to say though, I'm just speculating.


We have a short but very noticeable rainy season here in S.W. Florida (Fort Myers).
4 months of rainfall around 10" with the rest of the year reasonably dry.

City
Fort Myers
State
Florida

Average Annual Precipitation
55.93 inches


January
1.94 inches

February
2.15 inches

March
2.88 inches

April
2.18 inches

May
2.65 inches

June
10.09 inches

July
9.04 inches

August
10.14 inches

September
8.31 inches

October
2.88 inches

November
1.96 inches

December
1.71


And I continue to add up our consecutive dry days. Today will make 42 days with only .05" of rain here.
For Orleans Parish
Wind Chill Advisory

Statement as of 4:40 AM CST on January 07, 2015

...Wind Chill Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 9 am CST Thursday...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a Wind Chill Advisory...which is in effect from midnight tonight to 9 am CST Thursday.

* Wind chill values...falling to 5 to 10 degrees over many areas north of the Interstate 10 and 12 corridor...and 9 to 14 degrees south of Interstate 10 and Lake Pontchartrain...inland from the immediate southeast Louisiana coast.

* Duration...5 to 9 hours.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and strong winds will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken. If you must venture outdoors...make sure you wear a hat and gloves.

TD
Quoting 20. Neapolitan:

Thanks for all the work you do, Max. Your dedication is amazing, and much appreciated.

Okay, using those data, I've created three additional graphs:







Yeah, I'd say the truth is there in black and white. Well, blue and red... ;-)

How fast !
Simple but clear graphs. Sometimes a visual graph says more than thousands words (data).
Waiting for Whatsapp (or Viber how was it ?) with That or newiceage now ! to write something about how our data is bad, faulty too, as it is noaa's, jma's, Metoffice's etc etc...They are the only ones who claim they know the real truth: we are leading towards a new ice age.... I'd been waiting for their promised new ice age for years, i will be patient and keep waiting a little longer ..... :-)
NWS DISCO, New Orleans

Model guidance is fairly consistent...and the wind driven cold
tonight /no surface inversion/ is likely to be slightly better
handled by the raw model temperatures or a blend of the raw model
blend and mav/met MOS guidance. Using this approach...have not
made much change to the previous forecast with lows as cold as the
middle teens in southwest Mississippi...upper teens to lower 20s near
I-12 to Mississippi Gulf Coast. One notable change...the strength
of the north winds across Lake Pontchartrain tonight will not
have ample time over water to pick up much maritime warmth...and
the raw models/soundings reasonably show this with only a 5 degree
spread from North Shore to South Shore. Given this...it is likely
most of the South Shore will see lows in the middle 20s with ample
time below 28 degrees along with strong winds to freeze
unprotected pipes. Have upgraded the freeze watch for metropolitan New
Orleans to a hard freeze warning. Otherwise...other areas were
converted from the hard freeze/freeze watch to the same warning.

Regarding winds and wind chills...north winds are expected rise
into the 20 to 25 miles per hour range in most areas...especially near the
coast this afternoon where 25 to 30 miles per hour winds with frequent higher
gusts expected in all areas. Have issued a Wind Advisory for all
areas from noon to 6 PM today for all areas...except continuing
through tonight for areas south of Lake Pontchartrain where they
may peak in the 25 to 35 miles per hour range this evening with gusts as high
as 45 miles per hour. Not surprisingly...this much wind combined with very
cold temperatures will produce wind chill or /feel like/
temperatures ranging from about 5 degrees north to the lower teens
south.

This is a rather rare event for our region...and although
this is not official since climate records have not been
scrutinized...wind chills this cold may typically occur only 2 or
3 times every 10 to 20 years...at least since the 90s. A Wind
Chill Advisory has been posted for all areas except the immediate
southeast Louisiana coast from midnight tonight through 9 am
Thursday.


The strength of the cold airmass is expected to hold the high
temperatures down in the upper 30s to lower 40s despite mostly
sunny skies. This normally would set up the next night to be
equally as cold...however middle and high level clouds are expected
to become broken to overcast during the evening or around
midnight. These clouds will be developing as a disturbance over
western Mexico brings some rain to Texas...and possibly a wintry
mix of light rain and sleet to eastern Texas and southwest
Louisiana. The lows Thursday night are expected to range from the
middle 20s to the lower 30s. Would not be surprised to see a few
sleet pellets fall across areas as far east as Baton Rouge.

This leads to our next forecast problem...timing of onset of
precipitation and temperatures Friday morning. There is a 20 to
30 percent chance of precipitation during the 6 am to 9 am time
frame west of I-55...and temperatures are forecast to be near or
below freezing during that time. GFS buffer soundings at Baton
Rouge show saturation occurring from about 4000 feet up to just
over 20000 feet with dry air below 3000 feet with wet bulb
temperatures well below freezing. This would favor either a
rain/sleet mix or freezing rain/sleet mix depending on
temperatures. Once again...this is with only a 20 to 30 percent
chance of precipitation at this time...however this will have to
be monitored because just a trace to very low measurable event can
have some impacts on bridges and overpasses.

Any precipitation on Friday should become all rain with possibly a
few sleet pellets late morning to midday Friday...then all rain
Friday afternoon as precipitation mostly ends. As mentioned at the
beginning of this discussion...there is lower confidence...but
still a non-zero threat of freezing precipitation late Friday
afternoon or Friday evening if moisture sticks around a few hours
longer than currently shown in the quantitative precipitation forecast fields of the models. In
fact...even though quantitative precipitation forecast is not depicted...the models do have some
low end probability of precipitation for Friday night while the low levels approach or
drop below freezing over the north and west near McComb and Baton
Rouge. At this time...have not included mention of any freezing or
frozen precipitation Friday afternoon...and have Friday night dry.
This could change if models begin to trend towards showing quantitative precipitation forecast.
Quoting 10. Skyepony:

One for more the books last year was Anchorage, Alaska had no days with temps less than 0F. Looking at records it is more of a trend than a fluke.







n the DC metro area, IAD used to reliably go below zero most winters in the 60s and 70s when I was young.
There have only been two below zero excursions in the 21'st century, (both in 2014).

In the period from 1940-2014 ALL three of the DCA below zero excursions were in the 80s and early 90s
1982,1985, and 1994. The 80s also (as I've remarked thousands of times previously) produced an inordinately large fraction of Florida's devastating citrus freezes.

Re: Anchorage, Alaska headlines about no below zero days in 2014.

Anchorage has had longer streak(s) without going below zero. Five hundred and some days as I recall. People are making news out of this because it's a "calendar year." OH. Wait a minute, I'm wrong. Was a 683-day streak from Jan 2000 through November 30, 2001 I was remembering.

Betcha here's where the major news sources jumped off from...
"Anchorage has an average of about 25 days per calendar year when the official temperature, which is recorded by a weather station at the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, starts with a minus, Ottenweller said.

The frigid year of 1957 had a record 75 below-zero days.

But the calendar year without a below-zero temperature doesn't mean Anchorage is even close to setting a record for its longest consecutive streak of zero-or-above days.

That record started on Jan. 18, 2000, and ended 683 days later, in the next calendar year, on Nov. 30, 2001, according to NWS data. (Note the graphic showing -10F and -15F for 2000 and 2001 My note.)

To beat that span, Anchorage would have to go until Nov. 12, 2015, without another day below zero."

Source: Article published at online arm of the Anchorage Daily News December 28, 2014

At least that Los Angeles Times article from which the (misleading) graphic at comment 10 is lifted is a balanced piece of journalism. Quotes below are from the article.
The hype view...
"To me, the fact that Anchorage won't dip below zero degrees in calendar year 2014 is just one more signal - as if we needed another one - of a rapidly changing climate," said Andrew Hartsig, director of the Ocean Conservancy's Arctic program.

The NOAA researcher quoted adds the balance...
Overland argues that Alaska's very cool heat wave is not evidence of climate change but rather the next stage in a long-term weather pattern that began with six years of warming in the Bering Sea and southern Alaska, followed by six cold years.

"This year, then, was the breakdown of the string of cold years," Overland said. "What all the scientists are wondering now [is]: Is this just one warm year? Could we flip back to a cold sequence again, or is this the start of a warm sequence? ... We don't know, and it makes a big difference."


Whether or not Anchorage beats the 683-day streak remains to be seen. Even so, what this leaves us with is a game of "Plenty Questions." Over what span of years is that 25-day average figured? Wonder also how many years of how would it take to get that frigid 1957 75-day streak blended into this 25-day average? How about let's make a graph of Anchorage below zero days since record-keeping began?? That would be interesting. But then, of what significance is placing a mark at 0 degrees F? That doesn't give you much of anything to run on except a headline for your agenda. Show me some real facts. Was it 2 below or 20 below when temps are below zero? Is this below zero streak an average daily temp or low temp? Where were the highs?

Balance, people, balance. This streak alone does nothing toward proving causality. Future weather will tell us what's happening.

(edited after posting for paragraph and clarity re: the graph at comment 10; L.A. Times link added.)
Next week. Storm potential.

I woke up a little while now and I came across my thermometer already scoring 38.3 ° C / 100,9ºF and a heat index of about 119ºF. I just read on the internet that the Subtropical South Atlantic is moving towards Brazil and is gaining strength, that is, the Heat Dome is coming back. Forecasts and weather models are indicating a significant increase in heat in the Center-South region of Brazil, which includes my region, Porto Alegre. The models are showing temperatures between 104 ° F and 110 ° F during the heat bubble.
The barometric pressure in Omaha, Nebraska has risen to 31.08inHg as of 9:52am CDT. This eclipses the previous record high pressure reading of 31.07inHg set back on January 25, 1905.

12 parallel GFS is stronger than past runs on 91W.

Thanks for the info, Doc!

Heavy snow blankets the Middle East
BBC weather video, 7 January 2015 Last updated at 15:48
The first winter storm of the season has brought heavy snow to parts of Turkey, Lebanon, Syria and Israel, forcing many petrol stations, banks, schools and shops to close.
Refugees in the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon had to clear the snow from their shelters, fearing that they would collapse under its weight.
More cold weather is forecast for the next few days. BBC Weather's Philip Avery has the story.


And here a video from yesterday of a thousand years old monastery on the island of Andros in the Aegean Sea. Although snow on high mountains in Greece is common, this amount of snow in the Aegean Sea got quite a lot of attention:


Wiki: The Panachrantos Monastery of Andros (also Monastery of St. Panteleimon) is located on the Greek island of Andros in the Aegean Sea, an island of the Cyclades. ...The monastery is located in the Geronakas mountainous area high on the side of Mount Katafigio at an elevation of about 2,500 feet (750 meters). Surrounded by a strong wall, the monastery appears like a "Byzantine" fortress. The site provides an exceptional view of Chora and the surrounding area.

-------
Europe is in shock because of the murders in Paris. Sympathies for the victims and their families; blame on the ruthless killers!
Quoting 30. Barefootontherocks:

Re: Anchorage, Alaska headlines about no below zero days in 2014.

Anchorage has had longer streak(s) without going below zero. Five hundred and some days as I recall. People are making news out of this because it's a "calendar year." OH. Wait a minute, I'm wrong. Was a 683-day streak from Jan 2000 through November 30, 2001 I was remembering.

Guess you learnt now to not rely on your memory too much. Your 683 streak does not exist - or you believe such a stretch could not possibly encompass a full calendar year. See the graph below your post, but can you parse it?
Quoting 30. Barefootontherocks:

Re: Anchorage, Alaska headlines about no below zero days in 2014.

Anchorage has had longer streak(s) without going below zero. Five hundred and some days as I recall. People are making news out of this because it's a "calendar year." OH. Wait a minute, I'm wrong. Was a 683-day streak from Jan 2000 through November 30, 2001 I was remembering.

Betcha here's where the major news sources jumped off from...
"Anchorage has an average of about 25 days per calendar year when the official temperature, which is recorded by a weather station at the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, starts with a minus, Ottenweller said.

The frigid year of 1957 had a record 75 below-zero days.

But the calendar year without a below-zero temperature doesn't mean Anchorage is even close to setting a record for its longest consecutive streak of zero-or-above days.

That record started on Jan. 18, 2000, and ended 683 days later, in the next calendar year, on Nov. 30, 2001, according to NWS data. (Note the graphic showing -10F and -15F for 2000 and 2001)

To beat that span, Anchorage would have to go until Nov. 12, 2015, without another day below zero."

Source: Article published at online arm of the Anchorage Daily News December 28, 2014

At least that Los Angeles Times article from which the (misleading) graphic at comment 10 is lifted is a balanced piece of journalism. Quotes below are from the article.
The hype view...
"To me, the fact that Anchorage won't dip below zero degrees in calendar year 2014 is just one more signal - as if we needed another one - of a rapidly changing climate," said Andrew Hartsig, director of the Ocean Conservancy's Arctic program.

The NOAA researcher quoted adds the balance...
Overland argues that Alaska's very cool heat wave is not evidence of climate change but rather the next stage in a long-term weather pattern that began with six years of warming in the Bering Sea and southern Alaska, followed by six cold years.

"This year, then, was the breakdown of the string of cold years," Overland said. "What all the scientists are wondering now [is]: Is this just one warm year? Could we flip back to a cold sequence again, or is this the start of a warm sequence? ... We don't know, and it makes a big difference."


Whether or not Anchorage beats the 683-day streak remains to be seen. Even so, what this leaves us with is a game of "Plenty Questions." Over what span of years is that 25-day average figured? Wonder also how many years of how would it take to get that frigid 1957 75-day streak blended into this 25-day average? How about let's make a graph of Anchorage below zero days since record-keeping began?? That would be interesting. But then, of what significance is placing a mark at 0 degrees F? That doesn't give you much of anything to run on except a headline for your agenda. Show me some real facts. Was it 2 below or 20 below when temps are below zero? Is this below zero streak an average daily temp or low temp? Where were the highs?

Balance, people, balance. This streak alone does nothing toward proving causality. Future weather will tell us what's happening.

(edited after posting for paragraph and clarity re: the graph at comment 10; L.A. Times link added.)


Misleading graphic? You are talking about two completely different things. Just because you refuse to accept established science and instead want to change the context of the story to better fit your narrative, doesn't make the simple fact the in 2014, for the first time in recorded history, Anchorage did not experience a temperature below 0. It hasn't happened before. In fact, it could even be argued that by not using calendar years which encompass the full range of seasonal variations, the methodology in your argument is flawed beyond usability and constitutes nothing more than a neat statistical factoid.
Re: post 30, Barefoot

"Future weather will tell us what's happening." So, last year's weather, the weather of the last five, ten, fifteen, twenty years is irrelevant? At what point in the future will we have accumulated enough data so as to know "what's happening"? Or will that time when, according to your judgement, we have accumulated enough data, keep receding further into the future as the accumulating data continues to not be to your tastes?
Saturday morning is starting to look like it may be another very cold one.
Quoting 33. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The barometric pressure in Omaha, Nebraska has risen to 31.08inHg as of 9:52am CDT. This eclipses the previous record high pressure reading of 31.07inHg set back on January 25, 1905.


Just looked at Lambert Int'l - StL, they're up to 30.85", 30.8" at the one to my N, 30.78" to my SW (about 60 mi from Lambert). Wind chills in high minus teens now and temps holding at 4/5 although sun shining brightly for last couple of hours. Looks like StL record is 31.01" (12/20/24), getting close, esp w/ rate it's been going up this a.m.
Quoting 36. cRRKampen:


Guess you learnt now to not rely on your memory too much. Your 683 streak does not exist - or you believe such a stretch could not possibly encompass a full calendar year. See the graph below your post, but can you parse it?
If you (and your plussers) read the rest of my comment 30, you'll see this 683-day streak does exist and is sourced as NWS.
You wrote: "See the graph below your post, but can you parse it?"
Oh yeah. I parsed it LOL. The graph is misleading, also proven by NWS records in my comment 30 here which perhaps you did not read thoroughly. The graph shows below zero for the calendar years 2000 and 2001 (add 10 and 15 below respectively), which no doubt is correct, yet it occurred during this 683-day streak. That graphic depicts calendar year temps. So... obvious that (prior to) January (date corrected) 17, 2000 was da*n cold and the rest of winter was reasonably cold even though it did not dip below zero. Same with 2001 beyond Nov 30. An example of how data can be misleading.
Capiche?
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Re: Anchorage, Alaska headlines about no below zero days in 2014.

Anchorage has had longer streak(s) without going below zero. Five hundred and some days as I recall. People are making news out of this because it's a "calendar year." OH. Wait a minute, I'm wrong. Was a 683-day streak from Jan 2000 through November 30, 2001 I was remembering.

Betcha here's where the major news sources jumped off from...
"Anchorage has an average of about 25 days per calendar year when the official temperature, which is recorded by a weather station at the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, starts with a minus, Ottenweller said.

The frigid year of 1957 had a record 75 below-zero days.

But the calendar year without a below-zero temperature doesn't mean Anchorage is even close to setting a record for its longest consecutive streak of zero-or-above days.

That record started on Jan. 18, 2000, and ended 683 days later, in the next calendar year, on Nov. 30, 2001, according to NWS data. (Note the graphic showing -10F and -15F for 2000 and 2001)

To beat that span, Anchorage would have to go until Nov. 12, 2015, without another day below zero."

Source: Article published at online arm of the Anchorage Daily News December 28, 2014

At least that Los Angeles Times article from which the (misleading) graphic at comment 10 is lifted is a balanced piece of journalism. Quotes below are from the article.
The hype view...
"To me, the fact that Anchorage won't dip below zero degrees in calendar year 2014 is just one more signal - as if we needed another one - of a rapidly changing climate," said Andrew Hartsig, director of the Ocean Conservancy's Arctic program.

The NOAA researcher quoted adds the balance...
Overland argues that Alaska's very cool heat wave is not evidence of climate change but rather the next stage in a long-term weather pattern that began with six years of warming in the Bering Sea and southern Alaska, followed by six cold years.

"This year, then, was the breakdown of the string of cold years," Overland said. "What all the scientists are wondering now [is]: Is this just one warm year? Could we flip back to a cold sequence again, or is this the start of a warm sequence? ... We don't know, and it makes a big difference."


Whether or not Anchorage beats the 683-day streak remains to be seen. Even so, what this leaves us with is a game of "Plenty Questions." Over what span of years is that 25-day average figured? Wonder also how many years of how would it take to get that frigid 1957 75-day streak blended into this 25-day average? How about let's make a graph of Anchorage below zero days since record-keeping began?? That would be interesting. But then, of what significance is placing a mark at 0 degrees F? That doesn't give you much of anything to run on except a headline for your agenda. Show me some real facts. Was it 2 below or 20 below when temps are below zero? Is this below zero streak an average daily temp or low temp? Where were the highs?

Balance, people, balance. This streak alone does nothing toward proving causality. Future weather will tell us what's happening.

(edited after posting for paragraph and clarity re: the graph at comment 10; L.A. Times link added.)
Comparing the fact that Anchorage just completed it's first calendar year ever with out dipping below zero to that city's recordsetting stretch of days without dropping below zero is silly, and rather pointless. The thing is, the most consecutive days record spanned two entire springs, summers, and autumns--times when below zero temperatures aren't expected--while counting only a single period from December to mid-January, the time of year the city is expected to see its coldest temperatures. IOW, that second record is like an employee complaining on a Friday afternoon that he's worked ten of the last twelve days, and therefore deserves extra time off. :\

So far as Overland's six-cold-years-six-warm-years assertion, I'd refer to this graphic:



Long-term trends, people. Long-term trends.

Sure, some may claim, "This streak alone does nothing toward proving causality." But it certainly is strong evidence that things, they are a-changin'.

(FWIW, Overland is a huge proponent of anthropogenic climate change theory.)
Thanks for the new Post Dr. Masters....
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1126 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

FLZ038-081500-
/O.CAN.KJAX.FZ.A.0001.150108T0900Z-150108T1400Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.WI.Y.0001.150108T0100Z-150108T1500Z/
FLAGLER-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...PALM COAST
1126 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZE WATCH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S. NO PROLONGED DURATION S OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

* TIMING...GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

* IMPACTS...TENDER VEGETATION AND PEOPLE SENSITIVE TO THE COLD
SHOULD BE PROTECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH
ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 57 MPH OR
GREATER AT ANY TIME.

MINOR DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE POSSIBLE
WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE.

MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILES VEHICLES ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION
UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES.

STRONG WINDS CAN TOPPLE TREES...BLOW WEAKENED ROOFS OFF HOUSES...
AND DOWN POWER LINES. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SECURE TRASH CANS...
LAWN FURNITURE...AND ANY OTHER LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

PERSONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
WEATHER.

&&
So, apparently were going to freeze to death overnight says the NWS here.

Been a good life..so I'm gonna get a 5th of Bourbon and head to the French Quarter on foot.

Stay Blogging my Friends"...




Hard Freeze Warnings and Freeze Warnings are in effect late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for all of southeast Louisiana and extreme southern Mississippi (hard freeze the larger area in purple and the freeze in darker purple/blue coastal southeast Louisiana). Temperatures will fall into the mid teens to mid 20s across the hard freeze warning area and into the upper 20s and lower 30s across the freeze warning area.

Precautions should be taken to protect any vulnerable people, pets, pipes, and plants before the onset of freezing conditions. In addition to the Freeze Warnings, Wind Chill Advisories are also posted for late tonight and early Thursday morning across most of the area for wind chill readings expected to lower to 5 to 13 degrees. Last but not least, Wind Advisories (over land) and Gale Warnings (over tidal lakes, sounds and coastal waters) are in effect across the entire area this afternoon into tonight.
welcome to Toronto Siberia



Elev 548 ft 43.77 N, 79.28 W | Updated 3 sec ago


Partly Cloudy

Partly Cloudy


-0.4 F

Feels Like -21 F
Quoting 38. ACSeattle:

Re: post 30, Barefoot

"Future weather will tell us what's happening." So, last year's weather, the weather of the last five, ten, fifteen, twenty years is irrelevant? At what point in the future will we have accumulated enough data so as to know "what's happening"? Or will that time when, according to your judgement, we have accumulated enough data, keep receding further into the future as the accumulating data continues to not be to your tastes?
Not my judgment rendered in my comment or in the Los Angeles Times article but that of a NOAA scientist. Read what I wrote and the link. Science is not there yet - to associate a "calender year" above zero in Anchorage causality with AGW/CC.
Good Afternoon. Just reiterating my comments from yesterday on folks living in the SE/Gulf tier of the US that the temps are going to start to plummet later this afternoon after sundown with hard freeze warnings stretching all the way to portions of the Gulf States including coastal near-coastal LA, MS, AL, and North Florida.

Please do not forget to take these warnings seriously and to protect your pipes, pets, and plants today for the hard freeze conditions over the next few nights....................The relief-warm up will come again starting on Friday afternoon but you have to take the precautions today.
Quoting 47. Barefootontherocks:

Not my judgement rendered in my comment or in the Los Angeles Times article but that of a NOAA scientist. Read what I wrote and the link. Science is not there yet - to associate a "calender year" above zero in Anchorage causality with AGW/CC.



pssssst'...

Sunrise, Sunset / Sunrise, Sunset / Swiftly Fly the Years

Here’s an easy prediction for 2015. When we arrive at March 1, 2015, it will have been 30 years since there was a month where the global average surface temperature was below the 20th century average.


We are creatures who like our milestones in years and decades and numbers divisible by 5, 10, 25 and 50 (like our currency), and a 30 year average is the definition of climate in the standard of climate as the average weather. The National Climatic Data Center goes to some effort to strictly define “normal” in terms of 30-year averages. With the arrival of March 1, 2015, all of the months used in the calculation of current climate will have been warmer than the climate of my youth, the previous generation, our grandparent’s generation, Howard Taft’s, Teddy Roosevelt’s, indeed, Benjamin Harrison’s. You might recall that in my unfashionable way, I objected to calling the 30-year average that ended in 2010 the “new” normal, because of the intuitive notion that normal is, well, what we might expect.


And what we might expect is that the temperature will continue to rise, and not stay the same as the previous 30 years.


Despite it being -14 F in my backyard a couple of days ago, in the middle of January we are very likely to receive the confirmation from NOAA that 2014 was, globally, the warmest year recorded. We’ve seen this coming for a while, and it will be briefly news. NBC has already said that it is officially the warmest year on record. There’s even a video of Tom Karl, briefly dealing with the subject of last week’s blog on ocean versus atmosphere as a measure of climate.

The planet will continue to heat up for as long as anyone reading this blog will be alive. One decade following another, each one warmer than the last. While writing the blogs this year, it has become far more apparent to me the irreversible path that we are on. The heat that we are accumulating is spreading throughout the Earth. The oceans are warming and ice is melting. The heat is creeping along, and it really can’t be stopped. The rise in temperature is almost incidental to the scale of these changes in the global environment. The changes are occurring fast enough that it makes sense to use them in personal planning: where you live, where you build, how you build. You can use the information to make yourself more secure. This includes placing yourselves in positions of influence, even power, to make your communities and cities more secure.

I wrote in a very early blog about do we require catastrophe before we take action on climate change? The answer is yes, at some level. Our vulnerabilities to weather will continue to change as the temperature warms, ice melts, sea level rises and the weather changes. There will be catastrophes, and it will be our responses to these catastrophes that determine how we cope with climate change. Do we rebuild in the same places in the same ways? Do we continue to manage the land and water with the same rules and tactics? Ultimately, do we learn from the early catastrophes so that we develop a systematic, knowledge-based resilience for the future?

I believe that in the collective, we can adapt to climate change. We are adaptive and innovative creatures. We have adapted to many things in the past. We don’t adapt without disruption. We don’t adapt with constant growth and improving standards of living. What we will have to learn is how to adapt when the climate is changing; we will have to build that change into our planning and execution. The skill to plan to change is something that some do well, some do not, but the ability to do it well will become more and more essential. It is a skill that can be taught and learned.

I am happy to report that in another theme that I have followed over the years, North Carolina’s approach to sea-level rise, that the answer is coming. There is a draft report by the Coastal Resources Commission, which is headed out to review. The report is, by mandate, limited to 30 years, but given how this all started, the article in the News and Observer is practically promising. The report looks at spatial variability, with a rise by 2045 of order of 12 inches in the northern part of the state. And here is the most promising statement from the News and Observer:

“In its new report, the North Carolina science panel shows what will happen if the rate of sea-level rise is unchanged over the next 30 years: an increase ranging from about 2.4 inches at Southport to about 5.4 inches at Duck.

But the report does not endorse this prospect. It focuses instead on the likelihood that the seas will rise faster and faster in coming years. The forecast is based on a range between two different scenarios, laid out in international climate change reports, for mild or heavy greenhouse gas emissions.”

Planning on a 30-year time frame, with knowledge-based numbers, and recognition that at 30 years sea-level rise doesn’t just stop – flirting with rational.

So, 2015 will see unpleasant politics in the U.S. and climate-world gearing up for the 2015 Conference of Parties in Paris. And I hope some growth in our Applied Climate Program.

Thanks for reading and here’s to next year’s successes,

r
Also, and as noted by NWS and Law Enforcement in my Tally area (and all over the media in other places), don't forget about checking on children and the elderly whether in your family or your neighborhoods to make sure that they have adequate blankets and/or safe heating in place for these cold nights. Check on these folks in the morning as well to make sure their made it through the night ok. Lots of folks live in mobile homes in large parts of the South and the insulation is often times not that good on the older mobile homes.
Maybe I will make a new handle called "NoWoolOverMyEyes."

In spite of what any of you want to say about a warming planet, the fact is this calendar year 2014 with no below zero temps at Anchorage International Airport, now named for the late Sen. Ted Stevens, cannot (add: as in has not been scientifically proven to) at this point be linked to AGW/CC "."

'Bye now.
"Its a series of tube's" comes to mind.

I believe that in the collective, we can adapt to climate change. We are adaptive and innovative creatures. We have adapted to many things in the past. We don't adapt without disruption. We don't adapt with constant growth and improving standards of living. What we will have to learn is how to adapt when the climate is changing; we will have to build that change into our planning and execution. The skill to plan to change is something that some do well, some do not, but the ability to do it well will become more and more essential. It is a skill that can be taught and learned.


Wind Chill Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1045 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

MDZ003>005-502-VAZ025>031-504-507-508-WVZ050>053- 055-502-504-506-
072345-
/O.CON.KLWX.WC.Y.0001.150107T2300Z-150108T1300Z/
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-NORTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE-CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE-
HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-EASTERN GRANT-
EASTERN MINERAL-EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG ...WINCHESTER...
FRONT ROYAL...MONTEREY...BIG MEADOWS...WINTERGREEN...
MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...PETERSBURG...KEYSER...
FORT ASHBY...FRANKLIN
1045 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WIND CHILL...AROUND 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...ZERO TO 10 ABOVE.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES.

&&


Quoting 53. hydrus:


All lies.
Quoting 50. weathermanwannabe:

Also, and as noted by NWS and Law Enforcement in my Tally area (and all over the media in other places), don't forget about checking on children and the elderly whether in your family or your neighborhoods to make sure that they have adequate blankets and/or safe heating in place for these cold nights. Check on these folks in the morning as well to make sure their made it through the night ok. Lots of folks live in mobile homes in large parts of the South and the insulation is often times not that good on the older mobile homes.


Not just mobile homes - older wooden structures, often on piers, that have little to no insulation. I dread hearing about fires caused by space heaters.
Wow
Coastal Okaloosa Severe Watches & Warnings

Wind Chill Advisory

Statement as of 11:59 AM CST on January 07, 2015
...Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect from midnight tonight to 10 am CST Thursday...

* wind chill values...the lowest wind chill values will range from near zero to 10 degrees late tonight and early Thursday morning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and strong winds will combine to generate low wind chill values of -9 to 10 degrees. These low wind chill values will result in frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken. If you must venture outdoors...make sure you wear a hat and gloves.
Rest of the the US is cold but warm air is still hanging on across SE FL.

The distance between Gainesville and Orlando tonight means a difference between a hard freeze into the mid-20's to temps well above 32 deg.
Quoting 59. StormTrackerScott:

Rest of the the US is cold but warm air is still hanging on across SE FL.




Phoenix is looking pretty good

Thank you Dr. Masters.
Nice to see that Grothar faithfully continues the blob watch well beyond the end of the hurricane season....... Way to go; this one was totally off our radar.................................. :)
Quoting Naga5000:


Misleading graphic? You are talking about two completely different things. Just because you refuse to accept established science and instead want to change the context of the story to better fit your narrative, doesn't make the simple fact the in 2014, for the first time in recorded history, Anchorage did not experience a temperature below 0. It hasn't happened before. In fact, it could even be argued that by not using calendar years which encompass the full range of seasonal variations, the methodology in your argument is flawed beyond usability and constitutes nothing more than a neat statistical factoid.
There are some people that it just doesn't pay to argue with.

I saw your post back to me on the previous blog. How lucky did I get to move to the one place in the entire SE that still gets hotter than blue blazes in the summer but also seems to have colder winters than anywhere this close to the Gulf. Surprisingly, it's up to 55 now even in the face of those gusty north winds. I expect the current balmy temperature will start to take a dive in the not far distant future though.

About gardenias, I have a picture of the house from 1979 that show the two gardenia bushes in the same location. They were smaller but still about 3-4 feet tall. They now get to about 6 feet until I prune them back in the fall. The things would probably be trees if I left them alone. I don't know how long gardenias live but mine are at least 35 years old and probably more like 50 years old. I suspect yours just aren't old enough and been hardened off enough to survive freezes with very little damage. Mine have a few brown leaves from frost damage but are still green and remain in leaf all year. I don't know what variety I have but the bush/tree is covered in masses of white blooms from early spring to early summer. The fragrance is powerful enough that they can be smelled throughout the neighborhood on a calm warm night. I really love these gardenias.

You may now resume the interrupted fisticuffs. :-)
Quoting 67. weathermanwannabe:

Nice to see that Grothar faithfully continues the blob watch well beyond the end of the hurricane season....... Way to go; this one was totally off our radar.................................. :)


Yep. Gro blobbed all over the blog...

Good catch Gro.

After a few days of below zero temps, supposed to get back up above freezing and rain (of course). Wish the weather would stay below freezing or at least NOT rain when it does get briefly above zero.

Have a Happy hump day (wed) everyone.

Normal is 66/43F
that area in atlantic not going to become much of what it already is

Quoting 57. LAbonbon:



Not just mobile homes - older wooden structures, often on piers, that have little to no insulation. I dread hearing about fires caused by space heaters.

I worked on the front line of child welfare in Northern Florida counties (close to AL and GA) in the mid-2000's and we dreaded these bitter cold snaps in terms of the elderly and children.  Lots of abuse reports coming in (for kids and the elderly) of folks living in skimpy homes and shelters and needing clothing and/or heating and our people would often "move" the kids to relatives places with better conditions or actually supply clothing, blankets, and heaters.  Then you have the tragedies that often occur when desperate folks lite fires or gas indoors or leave heaters or fires in close proximity to bedding or curtains and the like resulting in a fire.
Get these people to a safe place if possible (whether with friends, relatives, or shelters) if you can identify those at risk in advance..........Same goes for the homeless shelters which open up........................Delivering old blankets or winter clothing to those places is a nice thing to do as well. 
Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Airport)
Updated: 11:53 AM CST on January 07, 2015
Scattered Clouds
-10 °F
Scattered Clouds
Windchill: -32 °F
Humidity: 61%
Dew Point: -20 °F
Wind: 15 mph from the WNW
Wind Gust: 21 mph
Pressure: 30.74 in (Falling)
YIKES,
Quoting 73. PedleyCA:

Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Airport)
Updated: 11:53 AM CST on January 07, 2015
Scattered Clouds
-10 °F
Scattered Clouds
Windchill: -32 °F
Humidity: 61%
Dew Point: -20 °F
Wind: 15 mph from the WNW
Wind Gust: 21 mph
Pressure: 30.74 in (Falling)
YIKES,

Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated 3 sec ago


Scattered Clouds

Scattered Clouds


0 °F

Feels Like -25 °F
Quoting LAbonbon:


Phoenix is looking pretty good

The temperature forecast in Reno tomorrow is a high of 56 after an overnight low of 30. The forecast for Eufaula is a high of 36 after a low of 17. There are a lot of places out West that are going to be warmer than we will be, even normally cold places like Reno.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated 3 sec ago


Scattered Clouds

Scattered Clouds


0 °F

Feels Like -25 °F
OK, that cancels any vacation plans for Toronto for this month...
Quoting LAbonbon:


Not just mobile homes - older wooden structures, often on piers, that have little to no insulation. I dread hearing about fires caused by space heaters.
Yeah, and those old shacks tend to go up like a torch when they do catch fire. When we have them, the normal first report is a structure fully involved. The local volunteer fire department's motto is "We've never lost a foundation" and they aren't kidding.
Quoting 68. sar2401:

There are some people that it just doesn't pay to argue with.

I saw your post back to me on the previous blog. How lucky did I get to move to the one place in the entire SE that still gets hotter than blue blazes in the summer but also seems to have colder winters than anywhere this close to the Gulf. Surprisingly, it's up to 55 now even in the face of those gusty north winds. I expect the current balmy temperature will start to take a dive in the not far distant future though.

About gardenias, I have a picture of the house from 1979 that show the two gardenia bushes in the same location. They were smaller but still about 3-4 feet tall. They now get to about 6 feet until I prune them back in the fall. The things would probably be trees if I left them alone. I don't know how long gardenias live but mine are at least 35 years old and probably more like 50 years old. I suspect yours just aren't old enough and been hardened off enough to survive freezes with very little damage. Mine have a few brown leaves from frost damage but are still green and remain in leaf all year. I don't know what variety I have but the bush/tree is covered in masses of white blooms from early spring to early summer. The fragrance is powerful enough that they can be smelled throughout the neighborhood on a calm warm night. I really love these gardenias.

You may now resume the interrupted fisticuffs. :-)


Done with the fisticuffs for a bit. :) Thanks for the reply and the info. Mine are about 6 feet tall, but the cold makes them drop all their leaves. In the spring/summer/fall they are lush and dense. I suspect your correct, with the few freezes we get it's not surprising they haven't gotten used to it yet.
West coast of Florida ranging from 26-46 degrees tonight. Wind chill advisory just north of my area.
Quoting 76. sar2401:

OK, that cancels any vacation plans for Toronto for this month...
its cold was outside for half hour you can feel your lungs freezing taking a breath
Another tornado from BMX just confirmed to add to your list, TA. Thankfully, another weak one.

.JENA TORNADO (GREENE AND TUSCALOOSA COUNTY)...

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 80 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 1.27 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 100 YARDS
FATALITIES: NONE
INJURIES: NONE

START DATE: JAN 03 2015
START TIME: 519 PM CST
START LOCATION: 0.7 MI S OF JENA
START LAT/LON: 33.1243 / -87.8438

END DATE: JAN 03 2015
END TIME: 521 PM CST
END LOCATION: 0.8 MI NE OF JENA
END LAT/LON: 33.1382 / -87.8298

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED DAMAGE IN GREENE
AND TUSCALOOSA COUNTIES AND CONFIRMED A WEAK TORNADO. THE TORNADO
TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE GREENE-TUSCALOOSA COUNTY LINE JUST SOUTH OF
THE JENA COMMUNITY. THE INITIAL TOUCHDOWN WAS ALONG SHILOH RD
WHERE TREES WERE UPROOTED. THE TORNADO TRAVELED NORTHEAST INTO
TUSCALOOSA COUNTY CROSSING HOMESTEAD RD AND ROMULUS RD WHERE TWO
HOMES SUFFERED ROOF DAMAGE AND SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED
OR DESTROYED. THE TORNADO LIFTED JUST NORTH OF ROMULUS RD.
Seems fitting to have severe cold on the one year anniversary of last year's record cold. While not as brutal as last year, the cold tomorrow could close schools as wind chills get to -20 and below.

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM EST THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.

* WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 24 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
Quoting 53. hydrus:




10 to 15 degree wind chill readings expected late tonight in the suburbs North of Austin. I'm hoping for some frozen precip on Friday night/Saturday.
Quoting pablosyn:
I woke up a little while now and I came across my thermometer already scoring 38.3 ° C / 100,9ºF and a heat index of about 119ºF. I just read on the internet that the Subtropical South Atlantic is moving towards Brazil and is gaining strength, that is, the Heat Dome is coming back. Forecasts and weather models are indicating a significant increase in heat in the Center-South region of Brazil, which includes my region, Porto Alegre. The models are showing temperatures between 104 ° F and 110 ° F during the heat bubble.
Are you sure you don't have an exposure problem with your thermometer? The airport is reporting 84 with a thunderstorm so I'm sure the temperature dropped as a result of the rain, but the highest temperature I could find on any of the other private weather stations in the last hour was 89 and the airport showed a high so far of 87. What kind of theremometer do you have and how is it exposed?
Quoting 71. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

that area in atlantic not going to become much of what it already is




Are you trying to burst my blob?
Quoting sar2401:
Another tornado from BMX just confirmed to add to your list, TA. Thankfully, another weak one.

.JENA TORNADO (GREENE AND TUSCALOOSA COUNTY)...

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 80 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 1.27 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 100 YARDS
FATALITIES: NONE
INJURIES: NONE

START DATE: JAN 03 2015
START TIME: 519 PM CST
START LOCATION: 0.7 MI S OF JENA
START LAT/LON: 33.1243 / -87.8438

END DATE: JAN 03 2015
END TIME: 521 PM CST
END LOCATION: 0.8 MI NE OF JENA
END LAT/LON: 33.1382 / -87.8298

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED DAMAGE IN GREENE
AND TUSCALOOSA COUNTIES AND CONFIRMED A WEAK TORNADO. THE TORNADO
TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE GREENE-TUSCALOOSA COUNTY LINE JUST SOUTH OF
THE JENA COMMUNITY. THE INITIAL TOUCHDOWN WAS ALONG SHILOH RD
WHERE TREES WERE UPROOTED. THE TORNADO TRAVELED NORTHEAST INTO
TUSCALOOSA COUNTY CROSSING HOMESTEAD RD AND ROMULUS RD WHERE TWO
HOMES SUFFERED ROOF DAMAGE AND SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED
OR DESTROYED. THE TORNADO LIFTED JUST NORTH OF ROMULUS RD.

Was added last night. :)
Quoting 67. weathermanwannabe:

Nice to see that Grothar faithfully continues the blob watch well beyond the end of the hurricane season....... Way to go; this one was totally off our radar.................................. :)


I will never let my fellow weather-weanies down. As long as there is a blob out there, I'll find it.
Quoting 82. wxchaser97:

Seems fitting to have severe cold on the one year anniversary of last year's record cold. While not as brutal as last year, the cold tomorrow could close schools as wind chills get to -20 and below.

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM EST THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.

* WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 24 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

Windchill temperature in Central Illinois have been running -25º to -35º this morning and early afternoon .. Actual temperature s are between -3º to 1ºF .. Temperatures are expected to drop to -15ºF for the overnight low !! Windchill temperatures tonight could reach -40º to -50ºF !!
Quoting 89. Grothar:



I will never let my fellow weather-weanies down. As long as there is a blob out there, I'll find it.
We know Grothar and Grothar knows blobs!


walking in the cold and windy here in the northeast
Wed, Jan 7, 1:14 pm EST
... SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...
SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL PUSH QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THROUGH 3 PM. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PASS THROUGH QUICKLY... A COATING TO HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE IN SOME AREAS. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH THE SNOW AND MAKE FOR LOW VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES.
THE COMBINATION OF SLICK ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. IF TRAVELING... BE PREPARED FOR CHANGING CONDITIONS AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.
Quoting 68. sar2401:

There are some people that it just doesn't pay to argue with.

I saw your post back to me on the previous blog. How lucky did I get to move to the one place in the entire SE that still gets hotter than blue blazes in the summer but also seems to have colder winters than anywhere this close to the Gulf. Surprisingly, it's up to 55 now even in the face of those gusty north winds. I expect the current balmy temperature will start to take a dive in the not far distant future though.

About gardenias, I have a picture of the house from 1979 that show the two gardenia bushes in the same location. They were smaller but still about 3-4 feet tall. They now get to about 6 feet until I prune them back in the fall. The things would probably be trees if I left them alone. I don't know how long gardenias live but mine are at least 35 years old and probably more like 50 years old. I suspect yours just aren't old enough and been hardened off enough to survive freezes with very little damage. Mine have a few brown leaves from frost damage but are still green and remain in leaf all year. I don't know what variety I have but the bush/tree is covered in masses of white blooms from early spring to early summer. The fragrance is powerful enough that they can be smelled throughout the neighborhood on a calm warm night. I really love these gardenias.

You may now resume the interrupted fisticuffs. :-)


From an earlier post
Quoting 285. sar2401:

My gardenias make it through the teens with no problem but they are old and well established. Some of my other tropicals like my hibiscus have to come in or they just die. Even my very large mondo ferns have to take a trip inside when we get in the teens or they won't make it. Eufaula and Orlando aren't that far apart in air miles, only about 320 miles, but the flora is completely different. I think it's the furthest north city that still looked tropical to me. Something must be helping all those plants survive because they'd never make it up here.

I wonder about the warming though. I know that the overall average temperature is rising but, at least here, winters seem to be getting colder. I moved to Alabama in 2005 so it's been almost 10 years now. The first two winters I was here we had one night below freezing. Since then, we've had more nights below freezing and, starting two years ago, more nights in the teens and even single digits. Something strange is going on.


End Sar2041 quote

my response which I thought might be of interest to gardenia growers.

My gardenias in the DC metro area stay green and healthy looking most of the year but when temps go below about 25F I have to protect or bring them in. They only bloom in warm humid weather which here means June. They don't like the high heat we get here in midsummer. I'd really like a longer blooming period rather than just Memorial day to July 4 with a few scattered blooms until October. In cool dry weather, the buds just seem to sit and not open until they die. In really hot weather the plants look happy and grow fast but the buds drop. Most of my plants are propagated from cuttings of a plant I bought from a florist in 2008. A second strain of "Hardy" gardenias originate from cuttings from a neighbor's 30 year old in ground bush. This neighbor's looked dead spring 2014 after the harsh whipsaw temperatures of the winter. However it started budding from the bigger branches in mid June. I think it will look like a normal bush in another year or two. Meanwhile, my cuttings are a foot tall and bloomed this year but blooming period is even shorter than my other strain.


I remember the 1980s being a period of extraordinary arctic outbreaks in the Southeast although not otherwise cold. I still don't know why this decade produced so many compared with previous and following ones.

Quoting 87. Grothar:



Are you trying to burst my blob?
no I would never do that never never never
South Florida refuses to participate in the cold weather.
Those are quite high.

Tomorrow morning across the U.S.
Quoting 93. hurricanes2018:



walking in the cold and windy here in the northeast


We have a 3" snow cover in College Park MD. Temps have actually fallen a few degrees this afternoon to near 20F from the low 20s. Expecting seasonably intense cold tonight, below 10F but above zero. This with wind. Turned
off my heat pump, set it to emergency resistance heating and stoked up the woodstove. The woodstove should be enough for the back half of the house so the resistance heating doesn't turn on. Front half of the house is heated with gas anyway so I'm fine.


Intellicast

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Was added last night. :)
Durn! Anyway, BMX has it official as of 1243 today.
Quoting 100. georgevandenberghe:



We have a 3" snow cover in College Park MD. Temps have actually fallen a few degrees this afternoon to near 20F from the low 20s. Expecting seasonably intense cold tonight, below 10F but above zero. This with wind. Turned
off my heat pump, set it to emergency resistance heating and stoked up the woodstove. The woodstove should be enough for the back half of the house so the resistance heating doesn't turn on. Front half of the house is heated with gas anyway so I'm fine.



Looks like winter will only be staying this week.I'll enjoy it while it last before spring gets underway again here.
4 pm chill cast

Quoting 100. georgevandenberghe:



We have a 3" snow cover in College Park MD. Temps have actually fallen a few degrees this afternoon to near 20F from the low 20s. Expecting seasonably intense cold tonight, below 10F but above zero. This with wind. Turned
off my heat pump, set it to emergency resistance heating and stoked up the woodstove. The woodstove should be enough for the back half of the house so the resistance heating doesn't turn on. Front half of the house is heated with gas anyway so I'm fine.



Here it is 17F with a wind chill of 0F as of 3pm local time.
107. yoboi
Not much warming down in Louisiana tomorrow.......low twenties throw in wind chills down to single digits.....Cold on the bayou...........
Quoting 104. washingtonian115:

Looks like winter will only be staying this week.I'll enjoy it while it last before spring gets underway again here.


10 day forecast has temperatures high not reaching the freezing mark .. with lows 0º to -15ºF ..
I was just talking with a friend that lives in Tulsa, Oklahoma and he said "I can't wait for Winter to be over."
They're expecting temperatures near 0 just outside the city tonight.

I forget what it's like to deal with temps that cold.

Quoting 104. washingtonian115:

Looks like winter will only be staying this week.I'll enjoy it while it last before spring gets underway again here.
I don't know about that. All of the models are showing some sort of the storm next week in the east. Positive PNA western ridging teleconnects to the ECONUS trough.With the models showing the southern stream being as active as it is, it won't take much for some northern stream energy to have some sort of interaction to create a storm.
Quoting 106. Tornado6042008X:

Here it is 17F with a wind chill of 0F as of 3pm local time.



Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated 3 sec ago





-0.2 °F

Feels Like -21 °F
Quoting 108. whitewabit:



10 day forecast has temperatures high not reaching the freezing mark .. with lows 0 to -15F ..
Our temperatures will be moderating here.

111. Drakoen
I believe it'll be mostly rain.


hot off the press
Quoting 111. Drakoen:


I don't know about that. All of the models are showing some sort of the storm next week in the east. Positive PNA western ridging teleconnects to the ECONUS trough.With the models showing the southern stream being as active as it is, it won't take much for some northern stream energy to have some sort of interaction to create a storm.


I think this is the first time you and I have been on the same page so far this winter. :)

There's also this.


Quoting 116. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I think this is the first time you and I have been on the same page so far this winter. :)

There's also this.



Yes, decreasing NAO/AO values with a turn from positive to negative is sometimes an indicator for active storminess in the east. Still sometime to watch how this unfolds on the models over the next couple of days. The 500mb wavelengths on the deterministic models agree with the ensembles so even if there is not storm it will still be cold.

washingtonian: I don't think it's a good idea to be determining the rain/snow line more than a week in advance, the general track is favorable and models often underestimate boundary layer thermodynamics in the long-range.
Quoting 113. washingtonian115:

Our temperatures will be moderating here.

111. Drakoen
I believe it'll be mostly rain.
GFS has a cold rain changing to a wintry mix, then changing to snow for some time before moving out.

ECMWF has a similar solution for next Wed/Thurs.

Time will tell though. Still too early to assume anything IF...(man I hate that word) it happens.
Quoting 113. washingtonian115:

Our temperatures will be moderating here.

111. Drakoen
I believe it'll be mostly rain.


NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...THE WEAK GRADIENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND AMBIENT MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR MAY ACT TO SETUP A PSEUDO DAMMING SCENARIO WHERE COLD AIR IS SLOW TO EVACUATE THE LOW-LEVELS NEAREST TO THE SURFACE. THIS COULD RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE ON MONDAY.

...COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FAVORED DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

Quoting 112. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated 3 sec ago





-0.2 °F

Feels Like -21 °F
Perfect weather to go for a dip :^)
Quoting 120. Chapelhill:



NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...THE WEAK GRADIENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND AMBIENT MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR MAY ACT TO SETUP A PSEUDO DAMMING SCENARIO WHERE COLD AIR IS SLOW TO EVACUATE THE LOW-LEVELS NEAREST TO THE SURFACE. THIS COULD RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE ON MONDAY.

...COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FAVORED DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.


Our local mets don't sound excited about anything (But then again they have been waaay off the mark this winter).
Quoting 119. Tornado6042008X:

GFS has a cold rain changing to a wintry mix, then changing to snow for some time before moving out.

ECMWF has a similar solution for next Wed/Thurs.

Time will tell though. Still too early to assume anything IF...(man I hate that word) it happens.
around the 15th sounds about right for coastal system

Quoting 116. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I think this is the first time you and I have been on the same page so far this winter. :)

There's also this.


Does it still look like its going to be a warm second part of January? The AO is what determines this right?
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...15 TO 25 DEGREES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. 25
TO 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

* OTHER IMPACTS...LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS AND DRESS IN WARM LAYERS OF
CLOTHING. REMEMBER TO BRING PETS INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES WILL
DROP TO 35 OR LOWER...EXCEPT 25 OR LOWER ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
AND SUMTER COUNTY.

&&

$$
Quoting 124. Tornado6042008X:

Does it still look like its going to be a warm second part of January? The AO is what determines this right?

Numerous factors can influence U.S. weather, whether it be the AO or the EPO or the PNA or the MJO, etc. I stand by my forecast last week that mid-January will be the warmest portion of the month (not warm by any means), with a cold end to the month as the MJO progresses into the West Hemisphere. If we can get the AO and NAO to go negative and stay negative, that would also increase the chances for appreciable snow across the Northeast, where the precipitation type has been primarily liquid so far this winter.
Quoting 115. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:







The minus sign for the for the current Celsius temperature is on the wrong line. I kept looking at it couldn't understand how it was not negative. Finally, I noticed it just after the Fahrenheit temperature.
Quoting 128. MrNatural:



The minus sign for the for the current Celsius temperature is on the wrong line. I kept looking at it couldn't understand how it was not negative. Finally, I noticed it just after the Fahrenheit temperature.
I don't think they even offer this type of stickey anymore not sure

so I just copy and paste the conditions



Elev 548 ft 43.77 N, 79.28 W | Updated 4 sec ago


Partly Cloudy

Partly Cloudy


-1.8 F

Feels Like -22 F
131. vis0

Quoting 61. Grothar:


Grothars been watching this for 3+ days.
i'm looking to see if it stays together (even if not closed circ) past Longitude ~60°w and IF it does wondering ...link to comment# on ml-d rest pg., a "Galacsics" educated guess.

132. bwi
Both the 12z Euro and 12z GFS operationals seem to have a low off the Delmarva at 192 hours. Over a week away, but those sort of coincidences get my attention in January, especially with arctic air around.



Alaska's toasty temperatures in 2014 worry observers
By MARIA L. LA GANGA

The biggest state in America, home to more ocean coastline than all others combined, has just set another record. This one, however, is nothing to cheer.

For the first time in recorded history, temperatures in Anchorage did not drop below zero once in an entire calendar year. In comparison, Alaska's largest city had 14 days below zero in the 2013 calendar year and 32 days in 2012. The average is 29 days.

-----------

For the record

Jan. 3, 10:22 a.m.: An earlier headline on this article incorrectly said Alaska had a record-warm year. The state's largest city, Anchorage, set a record for above-zero temperatures. Seven other cities in the state had record-warm temperatures as well.

-----------
At midnight Wednesday, Anchorage closed the book on its warmest year since 1926, according to the National Weather Service. The lowest temperature recorded in 2014 was zero degrees Fahrenheit on Feb. 11.

Sea ice has been disappearing. Polar bear populations have dropped. The state's storied dog race was a musher's mess, spurring headlines that fretted: "Warm weather, treacherous conditions — is the Iditarod in trouble?" The Bering Sea saw its warmest summer on record.

"I didn't put my downhill skis on at all last winter, and at the moment I'm still hoping for this winter, but the prospects are not good so far," said Henry Huntington, who lives in an Anchorage suburb and serves as senior officer for the Pew Charitable Trusts' international Arctic program.


The Last Frontier didn't exactly sweat through Death Valley-style temperatures. Anchorage's 2014 annual average was a chilly 40.6 degrees or so Fahrenheit, said Richard Thoman, climate science and services manager with the weather service in Fairbanks. Still, that was well above last year's annual average temperature of 37 degrees.

Environmentalists, policymakers and weather watchers are viewing the thermometer with concern.

"To me, the fact that Anchorage won't dip below zero degrees in calendar year 2014 is just one more signal — as if we needed another one — of a rapidly changing climate," said Andrew Hartsig, director of the Ocean Conservancy's Arctic program.

Hartsig said Anchorage's comparatively balmy weather is consistent with other long-term trends, including diminishing summer sea ice and increasing sea surface temperatures.

These are anomalies ... that show our climate system is off-kilter.
- Chris Krenz, senior scientist at Oceana, an international conservation group
"These are definitely red flags that are very consistent with climate change," said Chris Krenz, senior scientist at Oceana, an international conservation group. "These are anomalies ... that show our climate system is off-kilter."

James E. Overland, a research oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, would agree with the off-kilter part. But he would add mysterious to the mix, too.

Overland argues that Alaska's very cool heat wave is not evidence of climate change but rather the next stage in a long-term weather pattern that began with six years of warming in the Bering Sea and southern Alaska, followed by six cold years.

"This year, then, was the breakdown of the string of cold years," Overland said. "What all the scientists are wondering now [is]: Is this just one warm year? Could we flip back to a cold sequence again, or is this the start of a warm sequence? ... We don't know, and it makes a big difference."


Especially to the Alaska pollock, which NOAA's FishWatch website describes as "one of the largest, most valuable fisheries in the world." Pollock don't like really warm or really cold temperature extremes, and their food source, small shrimp, do not fare well in heat.

"We really don't understand how these sequences occur, but they appear to be random and part of the chaotic climate system, rather than part of the global warming signal," said Overland, coauthor of NOAA's 2014 Arctic Report Card. "We've had one warm year here. Is this a sucker punch or not?"

Climate change or chaos aside, the warm temperatures are both real and worrisome.

The weather service's Thoman notes that a calendar year in the Northern Hemisphere contains chunks of two separate winter seasons: January, February and March, and November and December.


In the last few months, the lowest temperature in Anchorage was 13 degrees Fahrenheit, recorded on Dec. 13, Thoman said.

One record Anchorage has yet to break is the longest stretch of consecutive days above zero. That record was set over 683 days in 2000 and 2001.

Still, Thoman said, "Anchorage has never had a winter when the temperature remained warm through the end of December."

Until now.

Just before Thanksgiving, Ned Rozell, a science writer for the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, penned an online column with the headline "Snow-starved Alaska not the normal state."

Rozell worried that large swaths of Alaska remained "frozen, dusty and brown" through the first three weeks of November, threatening dozens of species that depend on snow cover.

"Each lovely flake joins spiked arms with others to create an air-trapping matrix above the ground surface," he wrote.


"The ground beneath the white blanket remains a consistent 27 degrees Fahrenheit no matter the temperature above," he continued.

"That relative warmth, the remnants of summer's heat released as the ground freezes, allows billions of small bodies to survive winter."

Among the species partial to snow are the bearberry shrub, yellow jackets and voles. Oil companies like it, too, said Larry Hinzman, director of the International Arctic Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.

The massive 49th state has remarkably few roads, and most of the land is accessible only by air or water. When there is frozen ground and good snow cover, he said, parts of the state "are suddenly open for travel," for hauling supplies and exploration.

"A good snow cover," Hinzman said, "is very important to us."

maria.laganga@latimes.com

@marialaganga


Hard Freeze Warnings and Freeze Warnings are in effect late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for all of southeast Louisiana and extreme southern Mississippi (hard freeze the larger area in purple and the freeze in darker purple/blue coastal southeast Louisiana). Temperatures will fall into the mid teens to mid 20s across the hard freeze warning area and into the upper 20s and lower 30s across the freeze warning area.

Precautions should be taken to protect any vulnerable people, pets, pipes, and plants before the onset of freezing conditions. In addition to the Freeze Warnings, Wind Chill Advisories are also posted for late tonight and early Thursday morning across most of the area for wind chill readings expected to lower to 5 to 13 degrees. Last but not least, Wind Advisories (over land) and Gale Warnings (over tidal lakes, sounds and coastal waters) are in effect across the entire area this afternoon into tonight.
Quoting 129. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I don't think they even offer this type of stickey anymore not sure

s


Similiar
Quoting 127. washingtonian115:



nice picture


Temps will struggle to get out of the 50s tomorrow in Tampa.
Quoting 137. TroutMadness:


nice picture
Oh I didn't take it!.But it is a very pretty picture indeed.If you like this one you can find more here
Link
That were taken during and after our snow storm yesterday.
Had a busy afternoon but here we go.............Temps going to start to drop as soon as the sun goes down in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend:


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 PM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...

.A STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE
REGION...WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA COULD SEE
AS MUCH AS 12 TO 16 HOURS BELOW FREEZING.

Urgent - weather message national weather service melbourne fl 318 pm est wed jan 7 2015 ...strong and gusty north-northeast winds behind cold front late tonight... southern brevard-coastal volusia-northern brevard- including the cities of...melbourne...palm bay...daytona beach... titusville 318 pm est wed jan 7 2015 ...wind advisory in effect from 10 pm this evening to noon est thursday... the national weather service in melbourne has issued a wind advisory...which is in effect from 10 pm this evening to noon est thursday. * winds...northwesterly winds will increase rapidly late this evening to around 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph through thursday morning. * impacts...strong winds can topple small trees and blow around loose outdoor objects such as trash cans and lawn furniture. these gusty winds will produce hazardous conditions for navigation on lakes and inland waterways through thursday. precautionary/preparedness actions... a wind advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. use extra caution.
Quoting 131. vis0:


Grothars been watching this for 3+ days.
i'm looking to see if it stays together (even if not closed circ) past Longitude ~60°w and IF it does wondering ...link to comment# on ml-d rest pg., a "Galacsics" educated guess.




Extreme Cold Warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

A period of very cold wind chills is expected.

Very cold temperatures combined with strong northwesterly winds, will result in wind chill values near or below minus 30 into this evening. Wind chill values are expected to improve this evening as winds weaken.

While anyone who isn't dressed warmly is at risk in cold weather conditions, some are at greater risk than others for frost bite and hypothermia:
- homeless people
- outdoor workers
- people living in homes that are poorly insulated (with no heat or no power)
- people with certain medical conditions such as diabetes, peripheral neuropathy and diseases affecting the blood vessels, people taking certain medications including beta-blockers
- winter sport enthusiasts
- people who consume excess alcohol
- infants and
- seniors.

Wear appropriate clothing.
- Always wear clothing appropriate for the weather. Synthetic and wool fabrics provide better insulation. Some synthetic fabrics are designed to keep perspiration away from your body which keep you dry and further reduce your risk.
- Dress in layers with a wind resistant outer layer. You can remove layers if you get too warm (before you start sweating) or add a layer if you get cold.
- Wear warm socks, gloves, a hat and scarf in cold weather. Be sure to cover your nose to protect it.
- If you get wet, change into dry clothing as soon as possible. You lose heat faster when you're wet.

Extreme cold warnings are issued when very cold temperatures or wind chill creates an elevated risk to health such as frost bite and hypothermia.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required, so stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio. Email reports of severe weather to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet with the hashtag #ONStorm.
ATOM feed ATOM
Rate of pressure change has slowed considerably this p.m., but Lambert is now within a tenth of the record, 30.91" vs 31.01". To my N it's showing 30.88" and the one to my SW shows 30.85". Winds have slowed a little so w.c. range from low minus teens to middle single digits. Probably won't set a new high pressure record, but we'll see, sure gave it a run. Pretty darn cold for no snow cover, imagine we'd be as cold or colder than last year if we had some. wabit's temps up Peoria way w/ some cover are definitely colder, though still a way bit short of seasonal all time records. Cold enough though! Should help keep skeeter pops down next year, hopefully!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Numerous factors can influence U.S. weather, whether it be the AO or the EPO or the PNA or the MJO, etc. I stand by my forecast last week that mid-January will be the warmest portion of the month (not warm by any means), with a cold end to the month as the MJO progresses into the West Hemisphere. If we can get the AO and NAO to go negative and stay negative, that would also increase the chances for appreciable snow across the Northeast, where the precipitation type has been primarily liquid so far this winter.
Well, so far, the first seven days of January this year have been a carbon copy of the same dates last year. If this continues, we warm up starting about Wednesday, stay warm until the 28th, and then get another giant ice and snow storm down here. I certainly hope history is not about to repeat itself.
Quoting 138. tampabaymatt:



Temps will struggle to get out of the 50s tomorrow in Tampa.


Compared to you guys, we'll be in an ice box up here in Tallahassee:

Tonight Clear, with a low around 22. Wind chill values as low as 11. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

Thursday Sunny, with a high near 41. Wind chill values as low as 10. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 25. Calm wind.

Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. North wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 53


We aren't expected to hit 60 again until Sunday, and with temps as cold as they will be tomorrow, I'm going to have to dress in layers, I'm not used to low 20's with a wind chill of 10 growing up in the Tampa Bay area. We had a couple events very similar to this last winter in Tallahassee. I have an 8 AM class tomorrow, so I'm going to feel the full force of the cold!
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Temps will struggle to get out of the 50s tomorrow in Tampa.


Wow! Much colder weather just up the road in Tampa. One day in the 60s for us and then we're back in the 70s (Fort Myers).
winds going calm now


Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated 11 sec ago


Partly Cloudy

Partly Cloudy


-1.5 °F

Feels Like -1 °F
Quoting dabirds:
Rate of pressure change has slowed considerably this p.m., but Lambert is now within a tenth of the record, 30.91" vs 31.01". To my N it's showing 30.88" and the one to my SW shows 30.85". Winds have slowed a little so w.c. range from low minus teens to middle single digits. Probably won't set a new high pressure record, but we'll see, sure gave it a run. Pretty darn cold for no snow cover, imagine we'd be as cold or colder than last year if we had some. wabit's temps up Peoria way w/ some cover are definitely colder, though still a way bit short of seasonal all time records. Cold enough though! Should help keep skeeter pops down next year, hopefully!
It's bad enough down here, where the front went through about an hour ago. The barometer is up from 30.08 this morning to 30.32 now, the wind is blowing at 15-20 mph steady with 25 mph gusts, and the temperature has dropped from 57 degrees at 1:30 pm to 44 now. It's supposed to get down to 17 tonight but I suspect that's a little high. The low was 10 degrees last year on tomorrow's date and I think we'll be closer to that than 17. All this is bad enough but I seriously think I'd die if I had to go through a Cleveland winter again.
Ouch
Not as strong THIS run.

Did anybody notice that a classic tripole signature is setting up in the Atlantic?
Quoting 151. opal92nwf:

Ouch


You should charge your battery.
Quoting 154. TropicalAnalystwx13:


You should charge your battery.

lol. I've gotten used to positioning my open windows like that because my screen is damaged on the left side.. :P
Quoting 153. washingtonian115:

Did anybody notice that a classic tripole signature is setting up in the Atlantic?
I didn't notice it. But unfortunately for me I wouldn't know one when I see one for I don't know how the signature looks...........How does the classic tripole signature look?
Quoting 144. dabirds:

Rate of pressure change has slowed considerably this p.m., but Lambert is now within a tenth of the record, 30.91" vs 31.01". To my N it's showing 30.88" and the one to my SW shows 30.85". Winds have slowed a little so w.c. range from low minus teens to middle single digits. Probably won't set a new high pressure record, but we'll see, sure gave it a run. Pretty darn cold for no snow cover, imagine we'd be as cold or colder than last year if we had some. wabit's temps up Peoria way w/ some cover are definitely colder, though still a way bit short of seasonal all time records. Cold enough though! Should help keep skeeter pops down next year, hopefully!


Temperatures have started to fall after holding between 1º and 2º all day .. now -2º on the way to a low of -15º F !,
Quoting 156. Tornado6042008X:

I didn't notice it. But unfortunately for me I wouldn't know one when I see one for I don't know how the signature looks...........How does the classic tripole signature look?


Anybody think that storm coming off the coast may actually develop ? Looks pretty good!
Winter Jamming looks like it is here and has begun!
GEM has an Ice storm next Tues.
Quoting 161. Climate175:


Where DO you find all of these archives?
A cool, fair day. 41/63 Temp still in the mid 50s and 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Looks like a mild night coming up.

Oh, wait....

Quoting 164. Tornado6042008X:

Where DO you find all of these archives?
Dig deep.
The highest barometric pressure at a station with an altitude of 750 meters or less is still Wolf Point, MT with a SLP of 1057.7 mb at an altitude of 605 meters.

I move that the term 'Sea Level Pressure' be changed to 'Sea Level Adjusted Pressure' so the abbreviation would change from SLP to SLAP.
Boston, Chicago, Providence, Indianapolis are among many large cities cancelling classes tomorrow due to the extreme cold air that will be in place all day. Several other areas such as Cleveland and Pittsburgh have their schools on a 2 hour delay schedule due to the cold.
Quoting Grothar:


Nice lookin' blob you found there Gro!
so close for Coastal NC/SC

This is the easiest way to search pressures. Go here.

Expand and shift the coverage area to all the northern and central plains. Check off pressure only. Set the maximum allowable altitude to 2,500 feet. Check the history of stations that come up with barometric pressures.
Nearby Weather Stations 7:17pm on jan 7 2015
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
12.9 °F
Rock Hill
12.5 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
18.5 °F
Foxon
11.3 °F
East Haven Town Beach
13.4 °F
east haven morgan point
14.9 °F


snow storm coming next week!
Putting coverings on the citrus tonight is difficult; winds are screaming.... as strong as a good thunderstorm.


COLD NIGHT!! AT 7:15 PM EST on January 07, 2015
66° in Lake Worth. A rather cool morning in store tomorrow. Then it looks like some rain towards the weekend and early next week...

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH NORTHERN OR CENTRAL
FLORIDA, AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE CARIBBEAN, ALLOWING WARM
MOIST AIR TO RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A FEW UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SETTING UP A POTENTIALLY WET START TO
NEXT WEEK. MODEL PWATS RISE TO NEAR 1.75" MONDAY WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY. THIS MOIST PATTERN MAY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY, UNTIL
AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GULF COAST
STATES.
Quoting 168. Doppler22:

Boston, Chicago, Providence, Indianapolis are among many large cities cancelling classes tomorrow due to the extreme cold air that will be in place all day. Several other areas such as Cleveland and Pittsburgh have their schools on a 2 hour delay schedule due to the cold.


We go by county, and here are the closures for Middle Tennessee: Link Nashville has yet to make a decision.
Quoting 174. opal92nwf:

Putting coverings on the citrus tonight is difficult; winds are screaming.... as strong as a good thunderstorm.


Wind is beginning to pick up. Not too strong yet, but it will be.
Quoting 173. hurricanes2018:



snow storm coming next week!
We don't know that for certain.Remember when the models were showing snow storms before and after Christmas that never occured?.I'm still very very skeptical of anything happening.
Temperature falling quickly now that the sun has set .. after a high of 3 this afternoon it has fallen to .. -4.8 here in Central Illinois .. going down to a low of -15 tonight .. windchills will be very dangerous for anyone not prperly dressed .. right now it is running between -20 and -30 F ..


ONLY 16F AT 7:30PM
Quoting 180. whitewabit:

Temperature falling quickly now that the sun has set .. after a high of 3º this afternoon it has fallen to -4.8º here in Central Illinois .. going down to a low of -15º tonight .. windchills will be very dangerous for anyone not prperly dressed .. right now it is running between -20º and -30º F ..
I spend a half hr outside today doing some work around the building you could feel the sinus and lungs freeze in the cold wind was worse once that dies down it won't feel as bad

Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated 12 sec ago


Clear

Clear


-3.3 °F

Feels Like -3 °F
Quoting 180. whitewabit:

Temperature falling quickly now that the sun has set .. after a high of 3º this afternoon it has fallen to -4.8º here in Central Illinois .. going down to a low of -15º tonight .. windchills will be very dangerous for anyone not prperly dressed .. right now it is running between -20º and -30º F ..


very dangerous COLD WEATHER A GOODNIGHT TO BE IN THE HOUSE



winds have gone calm now
img src="

cold weather tonight around 0F tonight in east haven
Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Airport)
Updated: 6:53 PM CST on January 07, 2015
Clear
-10 °F
Clear
Windchill: -31 °F

Humidity: 65%
Dew Point: -19 °F
Wind: 14 mph from the WSW
Pressure: 30.65 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1624 ft

The polar Vortex is already among us but the coldest air will come tomorrow and the winds will be stiff.It's already 15 degrees outside my house and the temperature continues to drop like crazy!.
Man the wind is howling here, just heard something crashing when I went out on the porch, safe to say the reinforcing cold front has arrived, the arctic air is blasting into the area!
Quoting opal92nwf:
Putting coverings on the citrus tonight is difficult; winds are screaming.... as strong as a good thunderstorm.
High gust up here is still just 25 mph but sustained has now gone up to 17 mph so it's been blowing some of the boxes I've used to cover plants I can't move clear across the yard. It's already down to 34, dewpoint is 16, and the barometer is 30.46 and going up like a rocket. I'll be amazed if my low tomorrow morning is really "only" 17 as is currently forecast. This is a list of our current warnings. Other than a tornado or hurricane, we're pretty much covered. :-)

- Hard Freeze Warning in effect from January 7, 09:00 PM CST until January 8, 09:00 AM CST

- Red Flag Warning in effect from January 8, 11:00 AM CST until January 8, 06:00 PM CST

- Wind Chill Advisory in effect from January 7, 09:00 PM CST until January 8, 09:00 AM CST

- Wind Advisory is in effect until January 7, 09:00 PM CST

- Hazardous Weather Outlook is in effect
Today's U.S. Extremes
City Station ID Temp.
Van Nuys, CA KVNY 82 °F
Palm Springs, CA KPSP 82 °F
Camarillo, CA KCMA 82 °F
San Fernando, CA KWHP 82 °F
Corona, CA KAJO 81 °F
Fullerton, CA KFUL 81 °F
Hawthorne, CA KHHR 81 °F
Thermal, CA KTRM 81 °F
Kendall, FL KTMB 81 °F
Immokalee Regional Airport, FL KIMM 80 °F
Quoting 177. Astrometeor:



We go by county, and here are the closures for Middle Tennessee: Link Nashville has yet to make a decision.



It would be hilarious if classes were canceled in Florida, I have an 8 am class tomorrow, and a combination of temps near 20 and wind chills near 10 along with the fact that I am not a morning person, I wouldn't mind not having to go tomorrow lol.
News said Hottest place in the Nation was Fillmore, CA @87F
Quoting 191. PedleyCA:

Today's U.S. Extremes
City Station ID Temp.
Van Nuys, CA KVNY 82 °F
Palm Springs, CA KPSP 82 °F
Camarillo, CA KCMA 82 °F
San Fernando, CA KWHP 82 °F
Corona, CA KAJO 81 °F
Fullerton, CA KFUL 81 °F
Hawthorne, CA KHHR 81 °F
Thermal, CA KTRM 81 °F
Kendall, FL KTMB 81 °F
Immokalee Regional Airport, FL KIMM 80 °F



It's hilarious that Miami and Tallahassee are in the same state, several hours away, and in low terrain, yet we are expecting wind chills near 10 tomorrow morning and a high struggling to reach 40, while Miami is expecting a high of 70 and a low of 64, lol.
Quoting 193. PedleyCA:
News said Hottest place in the Nation was Fillmore, CA @87F


I beg to differ. Lunchtime got a little sweaty today.

Link
Quoting whitewabit:
Temperature falling quickly now that the sun has set .. after a high of 3� this afternoon it has fallen to .. -4.8� here in Central Illinois .. going down to a low of -15� tonight .. windchills will be very dangerous for anyone not prperly dressed .. right now it is running between -20� and -30� F ..
I wouldn't make it from the house to the car. I'd be a newspaper story by tomorrow afternoon.
197. vis0

Quoting 167. DonnieBwkGA:

The highest barometric pressure at a station with an altitude of 750 meters or less is still Wolf Point, MT with a SLP of 1057.7 mb at an altitude of 605 meters.

I move that the term 'Sea Level Pressure' be changed to 'Sea Level Adjusted Pressure' so the abbreviation would change from SLP to SLAP.
i hereby 2nd that SLAP
Howlin Norther in NOLA.

44F and dropping fast.

37F in Baton Rouge




Quoting 194. Jedkins01:



It's hilarious that Miami and Tallahassee are in the same state, several hours away, and in low terrain, yet we are expecting wind chills near 10 tomorrow morning and a high struggling to reach 40, while Miami is expecting a high of 70 and a low of 64, lol.
It's about the same distance as from Detroit to Louisville, for which trip you have to cross parts of 3 states -- Florida is a stretched-out state! But the climate is quite different North to South.
Nightly short hello from Germany where it is still calm but it shouldn't stay this way for long.

1.) Compassionate thoughts to all those who have to suffer severe winter weather in thin tents:

Winter storm brings misery to Middle East refugees
BBC, 7 January 2015 Last updated at 13:37 GMT
A fierce winter storm has brought freezing temperatures to the Middle East, raising worries about the plight of the millions of refugees there.
Snow has fallen in the mountains around Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, where hundreds of thousands of displaced Syrians live.
With icy winds blowing there have been attempts to anchor tents more securely, and prepare for flooding.
The UN is also "extremely concerned" about the situation in Jordan, where it is distributing extra blankets.
More than 7.6 million people have been displaced inside Syria since the uprising began in 2011, while more than 3.3 million have fled abroad. ...


2.) Tomorrow and especially Friday and Saturday the first windstorms of a row will hit northern Europe. Still not clear whether they'll be of some real concern for us in central Germany but the regions north of me should be on alert. Next storm in the row is "Elon", here the map for tomorrow:



But no need to remember this name by heart as it will be very soon replaced by the next wind storm which will be "Felix", here the list of the names for lows to come (and who paid for them, supporting weather research in Berlin).

3.) For all who are lacking severe weather, here a nice youtube soundtrack of a howling (rain) storm (10 hours). Keep it open while reading and posting on WU as an apt background sound, lol:



Sleep well and warm!
Quoting 194. Jedkins01:



It's hilarious that Miami and Tallahassee are in the same state, several hours away, and in low terrain, yet we are expecting wind chills near 10 tomorrow morning and a high struggling to reach 40, while Miami is expecting a high of 70 and a low of 64, lol.

Agreed. There is a much higher than normal temperature gradient and as one travels down the Peninsula, the Arctic air mass becomes very modified to non-existent in SE Florida. Miami will be hitting its average January low tonight of 59F.

Maybe the true front has't hit us yet, but this just feels like a typical cool January night, nothing "Arctic" about it yet. As previously stated, a night in the upper 30s followed by a few nights in the 40s is typical following average cold fronts here in January. This is not a big deal for the FL Peninsula. Also, north FL typically gets hard freezes a number of times each winter.
I know no ones cares but my neighbor that moved from Key West to here witness there first snow storm on Tuesday.They were in full amazement and one of them were talking about how it took 2 hours and a half to get to work.So much for first experiences.I told them that they are bad luck because the rel snow seems to be missing us.
Quoting 202. washingtonian115:

I know no ones cares but my neighbor that moved from Key West to here witness there first snow storm on Tuesday.They were in full amazement and one of them were talking about how it took 2 hours and a half to get to work.So much for first experiences.I told them that they are bad luck because the rel snow seems to be missing us.
They shall see the big snowstorm soon.
One more hot day here in Brazil. Today the temperature reached 38,3ºC/100,9ºF in Porto Alegre with heat index of 46ºC/114,8ºF. In the middle of the afternoon we had a severe thunderstorm, at 04:50 PM the winds reached 40 mph and we had 1 inch of rain in just 20 minutes. After this the temperatures still were around 30ºC/86ºF and at 08:40 PM we had the second thunderstorm of the day but this time we had flash flood. Torrential rain with winds of 25 mph was recorded, we had more than 1 inch in 25 minutes, i never saw my street get flooded so quickly and now 00:23 AM it still flooded. The forecast at TV newscast said that here we'll feel 100ºF again on friday with strong storms, even tomorrow we had this warning with maximum temperatures around 90ºF, the winds can be reach 60 mph with hail. The next week will be marked by the return of the Heat Dome, the temperatures minimum will vary between 77ºF and 86ºF and maximum will vary between 100ºF and 110ºF with storm before evening...Yeah guys, this is Summer in the Brazil.
We had 76ºF now.

(by Pablo Martins, Januery 8th, 2015 - 00:23 AM)
Fair

47°F

8°C

Humidity39%
Wind SpeedN 17 G 32 mph
Barometer30.39 in (1029.1 mb)
Dewpoint23°F (-5°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill40°F (4°C)

Last Update on 7 Jan 8:53 pm EST

Current conditions at

Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.39°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 79ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather


Looks like the colder air is just starting to move in as temps have dropped 10 degrees in a couple hours, Tallahassee airport is one of the lower elevated regions in the area, but I live on a pretty high hill and it seems winds are gusting at times of 40 mph, the wind is howling here, old man winter is huffing and puffing into the sunshine state, the cold air invasion begins!
Quoting 201. HurrMichaelOrl:


Agreed. There is a much higher than normal temperature gradient and as one travels down the Peninsula, the Arctic air mass becomes very modified to non-existent in SE Florida. Miami will be hitting its average January low tonight of 59F.

Maybe the true front has't hit us yet, but this just feels like a typical cool January night, nothing "Arctic" about it yet. As previously stated, a night in the upper 30s followed by a few nights in the 40s is typical following average cold fronts here in January. This is not a big deal for the FL Peninsula. Also, north FL typically gets hard freezes a number of times each winter.


Well to be fair the secondary push of cold air hasn't arrived there yet for sure, the major cold push only arrived within the the past couple hours. With that said I'm wondering if the cold air will arrive on time to actually bring temps in Central Florida as low as expected simply because the cold push looks to not reach down there until midnight or maybe a bit after, not sure if 4-5 hours more of cold advection will be enough to bring the coldest air down before day heating kicks in.

Up here we should still be on track as temps well below freezing are quickly plunging south in Alabama as Temps in Dothan are already in the mid 30's after being in the upper 40's just 2 hours ago, and Montgomery is already below freezing, and Birmingham is below 20.
Models on point again..not..

Brad Panovich Meteorologist
1 min

Snowing at the beach. %u202A#%u200Escwx%u202C %u202A#%u200EsnOMG%u202C

Its sleeting in Wilmington..dont you just love how the models predict events out 24 hours out? Not..
Quoting 205. Patrap:




The freeze is going pretty far south. I wonder how the satsumas will fare.
Quoting 210. LAbonbon:



The freeze is going pretty far south. I wonder how the satsumas will fare.


Most of the crop is in I believe, but down below Chalmette on the East Bank here the actors and folks coming in will be in for a cold re enactment just like 200 years ago.

The Battle of New Orleans was a important pick up to Washington being burned down a year before.

As Battle of New Orleans bicentennial ramps up, troops descend on Chalmette
Quoting 177. Astrometeor:



We go by county, and here are the closures for Middle Tennessee: Link Nashville has yet to make a decision.

Soo much easier. My county is split into like 15 or 16 different school districts.
Freezes in Florida are quite a production
Citrus finally covered
From Sterling

THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...SETTING UP
A BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A DEEP TROUGH PIVOTS
TOWARDS THE AREA. GIVEN THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE INDICATED IN THE ENSEMBLES DURING THIS
TIME...INCLUDING A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST RIDGING OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES/WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FAVORED DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

BLV THERE COULD BE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS TNGT. IF WINDS GO LGTR AT A LOCATION THAT RCVD SVRL INCHES OF SNOW TUE THEN XPCT TO SEE THE THERMOMETER REALLY PLUMMET (IAD). THE SRN 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA DID NOT RCV SNFL...SO XPCT THOSE TEMPS...WHILE COLD...TO NOT DROP QUITE AS FAR. LAST NGT THE DIFFERENCE BTWN IAD AND DCA WAS 14 DEGS. BLV THE SAME SITUATION WL EXIST TNGT.

Quoting 208. ncstorm:

Models on point again..not..

Brad Panovich Meteorologist
1 min �

Snowing at the beach. %u202A#%u200Escwx%u202C %u202A#%u200EsnOMG%u202C


Post frontal precipitation can be difficult to predict and the models did show a shallow shield of moisture behind the front being very near to the coast due to the cold moist air undercutting the relatively warmer air supported by the ocean.

Quoting 217. washingtonian115:

From Sterling

THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...SETTING UP
A BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A DEEP TROUGH PIVOTS
TOWARDS THE AREA. GIVEN THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE INDICATED IN THE ENSEMBLES DURING THIS
TIME...INCLUDING A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST RIDGING OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES/WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FAVORED DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

BLV THERE COULD BE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS TNGT. IF WINDS GO LGTR AT A LOCATION THAT RCVD SVRL INCHES OF SNOW TUE THEN XPCT TO SEE THE THERMOMETER REALLY PLUMMET (IAD). THE SRN 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA DID NOT RCV SNFL...SO XPCT THOSE TEMPS...WHILE COLD...TO NOT DROP QUITE AS FAR. LAST NGT THE DIFFERENCE BTWN IAD AND DCA WAS 14 DEGS. BLV THE SAME SITUATION WL EXIST TNGT.
Good discussion but is it really that hard to type the words out fully? Very cryptic.
220. flsky
Sounds like moaning w/the rain. I don't think that would make me relax, let alone help me fall asleep.

Quoting 200. barbamz:

Nightly short hello from Germany where it is still calm but it shouldn't stay this way for long.

1.) Compassionate thoughts to all those who have to suffer severe winter weather in thin tents:

Winter storm brings misery to Middle East refugees
BBC, 7 January 2015 Last updated at 13:37 GMT
A fierce winter storm has brought freezing temperatures to the Middle East, raising worries about the plight of the millions of refugees there.
Snow has fallen in the mountains around Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, where hundreds of thousands of displaced Syrians live.
With icy winds blowing there have been attempts to anchor tents more securely, and prepare for flooding.
The UN is also "extremely concerned" about the situation in Jordan, where it is distributing extra blankets.
More than 7.6 million people have been displaced inside Syria since the uprising began in 2011, while more than 3.3 million have fled abroad. ...


2.) Tomorrow and especially Friday and Saturday the first windstorms of a row will hit northern Europe. Still not clear whether they'll be of some real concern for us in central Germany but the regions north of me should be on alert. Next storm in the row is "Elon", here the map for tomorrow:



But no need to remember this name by heart as it will be very soon replaced by the next wind storm which will be "Felix", here the list of the names for lows to come (and who paid for them, supporting weather research in Berlin).

3.) For all who are lacking severe weather, here a nice youtube soundtrack of a howling (rain) storm (10 hours). Keep it open while reading and posting on WU as an apt background sound, lol:



Sleep well and warm!

Quoting 219. Drakoen:


Good discussion but is it really that hard to type the words out fully? Very cryptic.

I'm not very sure XD.I had to really focus hard when reading this.

AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL RESULT FROM A POSITIVELY-TILTED
PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE LACK OF A CLASSIC
COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP WITH A HIGH POSITIONED TO THE NORTH...THE
WEAK GRADIENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND AMBIENT MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR
MAY ACT TO SETUP A PSEUDO DAMMING SCENARIO WHERE COLD AIR IS SLOW TO
EVACUATE THE LOW-LEVELS NEAREST TO THE SURFACE. THIS COULD RESULT IN
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE ON MONDAY. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/EXACT LOCATION OR EXTENT OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS SO HAVE LEFT
OUT OF THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

Talking about Tuesday.
NOLA disco

Short term...

A strong Arctic high pressure system will continue to build into
the area tonight and tomorrow. 925mb temperatures will fall to
around -5c by daybreak tomorrow...resulting in overnight lows in
the middle to upper teens and lower 20s over most of the forecast
area. Given these conditions...hard freeze and freeze warning
remain in effect for all of the region tonight. These readings
will be very close to the record lows for the date. A very strong
pressure gradient associated with the 1055mb high will also bring
strong winds to the region...and a Wind Advisory is in place
through the night into early tomorrow morning. Winds of 25 to 30
miles per hour with higher gusts will be possible. These strong
winds...combined with the cold ambient temperatures will push wind
chills into the single digits and low teens over most of the late
tonight. The cold pool will remain over the area through the day
tomorrow...and daytime highs will struggle to reach 40 degrees in
the afternoon. Winds will decrease as the pressure gradient
weakens...but wind chills will still be in the 30s through the
day.
00z Skew-T at Charleston, SC shows a good portion of the boundary layer was below freezing, but notice the warm nose between roughly 800mb-700mb. I suspect that farther north where there is sleet or snow the surface is much colder but the warm air aloft is causing isentropic lift and thus a wintry mix precipitation.



all i know is that at the weather observation office here at CAE columbia sc its 30f with a wind of 340/15G22 at the 0256z observation The clouds just passed in the last 30 min from west to east and the temp is dropping rapidly The cold air has arrived the pressure is high at 30.48 but not the highest i have seen it here.
225. flsky
Glad I don't live in Niceville. Where is it, by the way?

Quoting 151. opal92nwf:

Ouch

Even though the measures of protection should keep fruit on the tree okay, I picked some off just in case. All of them are still relatively immature trees, but especially this year, they're starting to give some good crops.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well to be fair the secondary push of cold air hasn't arrived there yet for sure, the major cold push only arrived within the the past couple hours. With that said I'm wondering if the cold air will arrive on time to actually bring temps in Central Florida as low as expected simply because the cold push looks to not reach down there until midnight or maybe a bit after, not sure if 4-5 hours more of cold advection will be enough to bring the coldest air down before day heating kicks in.

Up here we should still be on track as temps well below freezing are quickly plunging south in Alabama as Temps in Dothan are already in the mid 30's after being in the upper 40's just 2 hours ago, and Montgomery is already below freezing, and Birmingham is below 20.
It's 29 here. Your temperatures will drop like a rock in about two hours. It was 40 degrees here at 6:00. The barometer is also at 30.52. I don't know what the record is but it's the highest I've seen it in my almost 10 years in SE Alabama. With a current dewpoint of 10 degrees, it's hard to believe the forecast low of 17 is going to be right. I'd guess closer to 10 than 17.
Quoting 61. Grothar:




Very interesting !! Hopefully some rain
Quoting 225. flsky:

Glad I don't live in Niceville. Where is it, by the way?



Bout halfway between Pensacola and Panama City just on the mainland. Destin is south of us on the beach barrier island.
Hey guys looks like finally Cayman will get Cold Front





I'm sayin about darn time


You know, the blog should be very proud of itself today. If you look back, there were a number of very good posts and information covering the cold outbreak, pressure systems, and local warnings all day. It was one of those days that was actually a pleasure to drop in take a look at what's happening. Kudos and good night. See you all tomorrow.
Quoting Drakoen:

Good discussion but is it really that hard to type the words out fully? Very cryptic.
It goes back to the teletype days with the all caps and cryptic abbreviations. I don't know why it's still in use at some WSO's. I know the first thing I'd do if I woke up tomorrow in charge of the NWS.
Here in Loudoun it's 12F with winds 340/6g20. The cows, horses, goats, hogs and chickens are all in their barns and snuggled down. Had to convince the horses to come in though. The cows are smarter - they were at the gate waiting!
Quoting opal92nwf:
Freezes in Florida are quite a production
I feel your pain. I have a guest bedroom and bathroom filled with plants and it doesn't look like they're going back out again for the next couple of days. I hope your blankets and light bulbs do the trick for your citrus. The fruit looks great. I'm far enough north that I wouldn't even attempt citrus.
Quoting Grothar:


You know, the blog should be very proud of itself today. If you look back, there were a number of very good posts and information covering the cold outbreak, pressure systems, and local warnings all day. It was one of those days that was actually a pleasure to drop in take a look at what's happening. Kudos and good night. See you all tomorrow.
GN, Gro. The blog is always at its best when there's real weather to talk about.
Quoting FarmerKarl:
Here in Loudoun it's 12F with winds 340/6g20. The cows, horses, goats, hogs and chickens are all in their barns and snuggled down. Had to convince the horses to come in though. The cows are smarter - they were at the gate waiting!
I always thought horses were the smart ones but maybe not about standing out in the cold. I'd have a better chance landing a P-3 that I would knowing anything about farm animals. :-)
Quoting 226. opal92nwf:

Even though the measures of protection should keep fruit on the tree okay, I picked some off just in case. All of them are still relatively immature trees, but especially this year, they're starting to give some good crops.



Mine are in the garage. 14F outside. About 30 inside. Will see how my "winter hardy" greens survive but they do have a snow cover and that will help.


Quoting 223. Drakoen:

00z Skew-T at Charleston, SC shows a good portion of the boundary layer was below freezing, but notice the warm nose between roughly 800mb-700mb. I suspect that farther north where there is sleet or snow the surface is much colder but the warm air aloft is causing isentropic lift and thus a wintry mix precipitation.






This is typical of arctic air in the south. It gets shallower as it goes further south and that warm nose at 800mb
is probably the top of the arctic air.
Quoting 234. sar2401:

I feel your pain. I have a guest bedroom and bathroom filled with plants and it doesn't look like they're going back out again for the next couple of days. I hope your blankets and light bulbs do the trick for your citrus. The fruit looks great. I'm far enough north that I wouldn't even attempt citrus.

Yeah, covering that many trees is a headache every time a hard freeze comes along; but it's very much worth it.
Quoting 192. Jedkins01:




It would be hilarious if classes were canceled in Florida, I have an 8 am class tomorrow, and a combination of temps near 20 and wind chills near 10 along with the fact that I am not a morning person, I wouldn't mind not having to go tomorrow lol.


During the arctic outbreak of Jan 21, 1985, they did close FSU due to cold. 6F with wind AM, 28F max that afternoon.
Quoting 219. Drakoen:


Good discussion but is it really that hard to type the words out fully? Very cryptic.



Seriously. Some of the NWS offices are worse than a teenage white girl at texting.
Quoting 211. Patrap:



Most of the crop is in I believe, but down below Chalmette on the East Bank here the actors and folks coming in will be in for a cold re enactment just like 200 years ago.

The Battle of New Orleans was a important pick up to Washington being burned down a year before.

As Battle of New Orleans bicentennial ramps up, troops descend on Chalmette


Satsumas are among the hardiest of Citrus and they also fruit early so are only at risk of freezes in early winter.
Quoting 207. Jedkins01:


Well to be fair the secondary push of cold air hasn't arrived there yet for sure, the major cold push only arrived within the the past couple hours. With that said I'm wondering if the cold air will arrive on time to actually bring temps in Central Florida as low as expected simply because the cold push looks to not reach down there until midnight or maybe a bit after, not sure if 4-5 hours more of cold advection will be enough to bring the coldest air down before day heating kicks in.

Up here we should still be on track as temps well below freezing are quickly plunging south in Alabama as Temps in Dothan are already in the mid 30's after being in the upper 40's just 2 hours ago, and Montgomery is already below freezing, and Birmingham is below 20.


Cold front comes in and winds switch the NNE or NE coming off 75 degree surf temps. No cold air here Jed maybe in Tampa but not here.

Also looks to turn rainy here across eastern FL tomorrow as well as the WRF model is showing light on and off showers rolling in off the Atlantic. Infact the same system giving Wilmington sleet right now. May see another bust by the NWS in Melbourne.

Could see an .10 to .25 tomorrow from Orlando east with heavy totals come Sunday & Monday maybe thru much of next week infact. Pattern early next week looks more like Spring than Winter with pop up thunderstorms due to cold air aloft at 500mb (-12C to -14C) and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60's



Quoting 232. sar2401:

It goes back to the teletype days with the all caps and cryptic abbreviations. I don't know why it's still in use at some WSO's. I know the first thing I'd do if I woke up tomorrow in charge of the NWS.
Quoting 232. sar2401:

It goes back to the teletype days with the all caps and cryptic abbreviations. I don't know why it's still in use at some WSO'sI know the first thing I'd do if I woke up tomorrow in charge of the NWS.


Actually the abbreviations came from back in telegragh days!! Around 1835 telegraph allowed forecast of several days in advance ..


Acrevia
Quoting 168. Doppler22:

Boston, Chicago, Providence, Indianapolis are among many large cities cancelling classes tomorrow due to the extreme cold air that will be in place all day. Several other areas such as Cleveland and Pittsburgh have their schools on a 2 hour delay schedule due to the cold.


Two hour delay in PG County MD for cold tomorrow. Baltimore CO where my daughter's high school is hasn't announced.

This is for entertainment only.

Quoting 246. washingtonian115:

DT graphic
Here we go again.
More weather porn
All schools in the Central Illinois area are closed Thursday due to extreme windchill temperatures expected to be in the morning near -15º to -20º F
Quoting 248. Drakoen:


Here we go again.

WOOF! *** ALERT *** Bahw!.lol.



light snow from new haven,conn
I'm genuinely curious, how did DT become so popular?
Quoting 253. Drakoen:

I'm genuinely curious, how did DT become so popular?

Thanks to people in the CWG comment section bashing him.That's the only way I found out about him and his facebook page otherwise I would still be in the dark,
Quoting 249. washingtonian115:

More weather porn


Lots of wows. Is DT aspiring to be the next doge?

Link
Nearby Weather Stations very cold at 11:18pm on jan 7 2015
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
7.7 °F
DopplerDon.com
7.9 °F
Rock Hill
7.2 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
10.4 °F
Foxon
5.9 °F
East Haven Town Beach
8.9 °F
east haven morgan point
9.9 °F
GFS UPGRADE NOTICE: The GFS will be upgraded on January 14th. The parallel GFS will disappear at that time as it will be the new operational GFS.

This GFS model I watch on a regular basis shows a band of snow off the coast of Alabama Thursday at 6AM, but no chance of rain/snow what so ever, but its been forecasting this for 10 days. I guess we will see
What's DT?
25.4 degrees in Eufaula with a dewpoint of 3 and a windchill of 15 right now. I know for sure we're going below 17 tonight. I was saying earlier that I didn't think we'd beat the 10 degree record we set on this same morning in 2014. Now, I'm not so sure. The wind was supposed to have calmed down some but I'm still getting 15 sustained with 20 gusts. I don't know if that's helping the actual temperature stay up a bit but it's absolutely brutal for a winter night in south Alabama.

Quoting 259. KoritheMan:

What's DT?

David Tolleris.

I guess i'm giving him publicity now, answering my own question. LOL.
Quoting WeatherBAC:

This GFS model I watch on a regular basis shows a band of snow off the coast of Alabama Thursday at 6AM, but no chance of rain/snow what so ever, but its been forecasting this for 10 days. I guess we will see
The possibility has been talked about quite regularly in Birmingham but the consensus is that the lower atmosphere is just too dry for any frozen precipitation. There's really nothing out in the Gulf to act as a kicker for any moisture and the cold air advection Is not going to make it far enough off the coast in time. There's a chance for a few flakes in north Alabama but I don't think we'll see any kind of precipitation in south Alabama. At this point in time, the models are irrelevant. Either there's something there synoptically or there's not, and I don't see anything there.

The Serengeti strategy: How special interests try to intimidate scientists, and how best to fight back

Michael E. Mann
Abstract

Much as lions on the Serengeti seek out vulnerable zebras at the edge of a herd, special interests faced with adverse scientific evidence often target individual scientists rather than take on an entire scientific field at once. Part of the reasoning behind this approach is that it is easier to bring down individuals than an entire group of scientists, and it still serves the larger aim: to dismiss, obscure, and misrepresent well-established science and its implications. In addition, such highly visible tactics create an atmosphere of intimidation that discourages other scientists from conveying their research’s implications to the public. This “Serengeti strategy” is often employed wherever there is a strong and widespread consensus among the world’s scientists about the underlying cold, hard facts of a field, whether the subject be evolution, ozone depletion, the environmental impacts of DDT, the health effects of smoking, or human-caused climate change. The goal is to attack those researchers whose findings are inconvenient, rather than debate the findings themselves. This article draws upon the author’s own experience to examine the “Serengeti strategy,” and offers possible countermeasures to such orchestrated campaigns. It examines what responses by scientists have been most successful, and how to combat the doubt-sowing that industry has done regarding the science behind climate change and other fields.
Full Text (pdf)

Quoting 261. Drakoen:


David Tolleris.

I guess i'm giving him publicity now, answering my own question. LOL.

Thanks, Drak.
Quoting 255. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Lots of wows. Is DT aspiring to be the next doge?

Link


I hate Doge. Make it go away!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lots of wows. Is DT aspiring to be the next doge?

Link
How can you not like a cute dog in a nightcap that says" Oh wow...much icy" over and over again? :-)
My "chosen" PWS won't stay put. Every time I click on Baton Rouge under Recent Cities, it shows a PWS in Port Allen, across the river, not the one closest to me that I had previously set as a default. This just started happening today. The only thing I can think that I did differently was look up several locations to check how my siblings were faring with the cold.

At this point it's just annoying. Anyone have any ideas as to why this is occurring? TIA
Currently sitting at 22F with a wind chill of 13F, which is absolutely frigid, but nothing compared to up north...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Currently sitting at 22F with a wind chill of 13F, which is absolutely frigid, but nothing compared to farther north...

TA13, where are you located.

Quoting 268. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Currently sitting at 22F with a wind chill of 13F, which is absolutely frigid, but nothing compared to up north...


Currently sitting at 5F with a windchill of -6F.
Quoting 270. Drakoen:


Currently sitting at 5F with a windchill of -6F.

10F with a windchill of -7F.
0z gfs now has single-digit temps in my area again Saturday morning. Colder than the previous runs.
Mount Washington, Oregon.
-31ºF + winds 54 mph = feels like -76ºF

O_O

Link
Quoting 271. Tornado6042008X:

10F with a windchill of -7F.


8F with a windchill of -4F.
LAbonbon ~ I've had that happen when my chosen station goes offline.

Event into space in Romania on Thursday, 08 January, 2015 at 04:34 (04:34 AM) UTC.
Description
The crash and burn of a meteorite into the Earth atmosphere may have been seen and captured on different recordings in Romania last night at 3 AM, according to Romanian media. Many Romanians noticed a bright light, similar to day light, which lasted for several seconds during the night, and the unusual phenomena was captured on surveillance cameras, including on the Otopeni airport in Bucharest. Internet users and bloggers reported they have seen something that may have been a meteorite disintegrating into the atmosphere, which resulted into the bright light. Some people who happened to be driving in Bucharest at the time of the incident reported the same phenomena. It is yet uncertain where the meteorite may have fallen, but, according to ProTv, this could have happened somewhere around the counties of Buzau or Vrancea, where the intensity of the light, as seen on local surveillance cameras, was also the highest. According to specialized websites, several meteorites will pass Earth in January, so meteorite showers are expected; six of them have already been discovered, and scientists expect 10 or so to be discovered by the end of January. Most of these however will pass within very big distance from the Earth - at least some 10 Lunar Distances, or 3.8 million kilometers. Every month a high number of meteorites and asteroids pass by Earth.


Video Published 1-7-2015..Meteorite disintegration over Bucharest sky on 7th of January 2015. Images recorded by NXDATA-2 rooftop security camera.
Quoting 269. Andrebrooks:

TA13, where are you located.


TA lives just north of Wilmington, NC.
Quoting 273. pablosyn:

Mount Washington, Oregon.
-31ºF + winds 54 mph = feels like -76ºF

O_O

Link


Mt. Washington is in New Hampshire, USA, not Oregon.

Here is the Observatory's site
Quoting LAbonbon:
My "chosen" PWS won't stay put. Every time I click on Baton Rouge under Recent Cities, it shows a PWS in Port Allen, across the river, not the one closest to me that I had previously set as a default. This just started happening today. The only thing I can think that I did differently was look up several locations to check how my siblings were faring with the cold.

At this point it's just annoying. Anyone have any ideas as to why this is occurring? TIA
This is the way I think it works. When I went to Baton Rouge, I also got the 415 Court St station coming up first regardless of what else I do. If you look in the PWS list, it's the first one that has a "rapidfire" update. The newest rapidfire PWS seems to be the one that comes up first for some period of time, and then it reverts to the one you looked at last as a favorite. Either this person just changed to rapidfire or they just reset their station, but, either way, WU seems to have the most recent rapidfire at the top of the list in terms of showing you a PWS. I don't know what the time period is but WU seems to want to show you the most recent rapidfire or, if there's no recent rapidfire, the most recent station. In Eufaula, there's only three PWS listings (well, there should be two, since one is over in another county, but that's another issue). One is rapidfire and mine isn't, but mine is more recent. Go to Eufaula and see if your don't get the Eufaula Historic District station (that moi) first no matter what you do. Like I said, I think that's how it works, but it's really just my best guess.
Quoting 262. sar2401:

The possibility has been talked about quite regularly in Birmingham but the consensus is that the lower atmosphere is just too dry for any frozen precipitation. There's really nothing out in the Gulf to act as a kicker for any moisture and the cold air advection Is not going to make it far enough off the coast in time. There's a chance for a few flakes in north Alabama but I don't think we'll see any kind of precipitation in south Alabama. At this point in time, the models are irrelevant. Either there's something there synoptically or there's not, and I don't see anything there.


Thats what i figured considering that there is literally 0% chance of any precipitation until the weekend, but this model had been running that data for the last 10 days, plus there is always hope right?
Quoting 274. Astrometeor:



8F with a windchill of -4F.


1.5° with a windchill of -1.
Quoting Skyepony:
LAbonbon ~ I've had that happen when my chosen station goes offline.

Event into space in Romania on Thursday, 08 January, 2015 at 04:34 (04:34 AM) UTC.
Description
The crash and burn of a meteorite into the Earth atmosphere may have been seen and captured on different recordings in Romania last night at 3 AM, according to Romanian media. Many Romanians noticed a bright light, similar to day light, which lasted for several seconds during the night, and the unusual phenomena was captured on surveillance cameras, including on the Otopeni airport in Bucharest. Internet users and bloggers reported they have seen something that may have been a meteorite disintegrating into the atmosphere, which resulted into the bright light. Some people who happened to be driving in Bucharest at the time of the incident reported the same phenomena. It is yet uncertain where the meteorite may have fallen, but, according to ProTv, this could have happened somewhere around the counties of Buzau or Vrancea, where the intensity of the light, as seen on local surveillance cameras, was also the highest. According to specialized websites, several meteorites will pass Earth in January, so meteorite showers are expected; six of them have already been discovered, and scientists expect 10 or so to be discovered by the end of January. Most of these however will pass within very big distance from the Earth - at least some 10 Lunar Distances, or 3.8 million kilometers. Every month a high number of meteorites and asteroids pass by Earth.


Video Published 1-7-2015..Meteorite disintegration over Bucharest sky on 7th of January 2015. Images recorded by NXDATA-2 rooftop security camera.
I think whoever wrote that has the whole meteorite versus asteroid thing messed up.
Pressure's currently at 30.48 in. It was as high as 30.54 in. and some places in the plains may set new high pressure records. Guess those places are under a lot of pressure. Ba dum tssss.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:46 PM EST January 8 2015
===================================

A monsoon trough currently lies over the far northern Coral Sea, with a weak low embedded in the trough south of Papua New Guinea and another near the Solomon Islands. The monsoon trough is expected to develop further as it drifts south into the Coral Sea into the weekend. There is an increasing risk of tropical cyclone development over the weekend and into early next week. The lows are expected to remain offshore of the Queensland coast in the short term but the situation will continue be monitored carefully.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
==========================
Friday: LOW
Saturday: MODERATE
Sunday: HIGH
Quoting WeatherBAC:
Thats what i figured considering that there is literally 0% chance of any precipitation until the weekend, but this model had been running that data for the last 10 days, plus there is always hope right?
LOL. There actually was a little more hope Monday night, when the soundings were looking more saturated and there was a chance the front would induce enough instability to set off some snow showers. Unfortunately for snow lovers, the current sounding out of Birmingham is dry all the way from the mid-levels to the surface, the air is way drier that the models predicted even yesterday, and with a current pressure of 30.56 over here, the air is just too stable even if it had some moisture to work with. The thing about models is that they'll show something for days on end and, when it gets to when it's supposed to happen, it just disappears, like it was never in the model. The GFS has a cold bias to begin with, and it tends to latch on to features way out and hold them longer than other models. Once we're within two or three days of the event, just don't look at the models any longer and start looking at the surface analysis, air soundings, and upstream weather and pressures. You'll either see things like, say, a developing low in the Gulf that might provide some moisture, or just nothing that backs up the model. It sad when those things happen, but a dead horse never gets you anywhere. :-)
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


1.5° with a windchill of -1.
Ah, you guys have me all beat, but it's 22 with a windchill of 12 here. I know that's not a big deal compared to up there but this is the Heart of Dixie. You know, magnolias, cotton, mint juleps on the front porch. I'm not supposed to have to put on my parka to dump the trash. :-)
Quoting 277. Astrometeor:



Mt. Washington is in New Hampshire, USA, not Oregon.

Here is the Observatory's site


Thanks, Google Earth lied to me.
Those SE LA mosquitoes that survived the November blast and vegetation that regenerated during our mild December are about to be flash frozen.

Home thermo got to 62.1F 2-3PM, mid-50's as front arrived near sunset w incredible winds as advertised - howling thru the trees like a jet. Now 34.7F, been dropping ~ 2 degrees per hour. Might yet reach predicted 24F. Local KHUM arpt barometer 30.61"R, saw 11 PM readings N LA at Shrvpt and Monroe were 30.81". All-time high pressure records set in many locations up north, particularly South Dakota, Nebraska - Grand Island @ 1056.9 mb / 31.21", Lincoln @ 1055.9 mb / 31.18" and Eppley Arpt Omaha @ 1055.3 mb / 31.16"!

Ronn and Marketa Murray up in Alaska wanted to share with us this stunning new aurora video captured in 4K ultra high resolution.

They ventured out on January 1st in -25F temperatures with an almost full moon and this is what they captured.

Brilliant job and thanks for sharing!






Quoting 278. sar2401:

This is the way I think it works. When I went to Baton Rouge, I also got the 415 Court St station coming up first regardless of what else I do. If you look in the PWS list, it's the first one that has a "rapidfire" update. The newest rapidfire PWS seems to be the one that comes up first for some period of time, and then it reverts to the one you looked at last as a favorite. Either this person just changed to rapidfire or they just reset their station, but, either way, WU seems to have the most recent rapidfire at the top of the list in terms of showing you a PWS. I don't know what the time period is but WU seems to want to show you the most recent rapidfire or, if there's no recent rapidfire, the most recent station. In Eufaula, there's only three PWS listings (well, there should be two, since one is over in another county, but that's another issue). One is rapidfire and mine isn't, but mine is more recent. Go to Eufaula and see if your don't get the Eufaula Historic District station (that moi) first no matter what you do. Like I said, I think that's how it works, but it's really just my best guess.


Thanks for looking into it. Now, I have no clue what 'rapidfire' is, or how one differentiates rapidfire from non-rapidfire PWSs, but I get the gist of what you're saying. I did go to Eufala, and the default was EHD.

So I guess just wait until it finally 'sticks' to the one closest to me. Thing is, when you go to Baton Rouge, and click on 'change station', there's dozens of PWSs shown, and the default is the furthest one from me, and it's not even in the same city, or parish. I tried a couple others, but they don't 'stick' either.

It's not a big deal, it's just inconvenient. I swear, sometimes I feel like a dunce on this site :/

Thanks again for your help, Sar.

Currently 29F, 'feels like' 18...inside it's a comfortable 68, but under my fleece blanket it's downright toasty :)

Quoting 284. sar2401:

LOL. There actually was a little more hope Monday night, when the soundings were looking more saturated and there was a chance the front would induce enough instability to set off some snow showers. Unfortunately for snow lovers, the current sounding out of Birmingham is dry all the way from the mid-levels to the surface, the air is way drier that the models predicted even yesterday, and with a current pressure of 30.56 over here, the air is just too stable even if it had some moisture to work with. The thing about models is that they'll show something for days on end and, when it gets to when it's supposed to happen, it just disappears, like it was never in the model. The GFS has a cold bias to begin with, and it tends to latch on to features way out and hold them longer than other models. Once we're within two or three days of the event, just don't look at the models any longer and start looking at the surface analysis, air soundings, and upstream weather and pressures. You'll either see things like, say, a developing low in the Gulf that might provide some moisture, or just nothing that backs up the model. It sad when those things happen, but a dead horse never gets you anywhere. :-)


Thanks, could you recommend some good websites that show accurate data? Would really be helpful.

Quoting 289. Patrap:

Ronn and Marketa Murray up in Alaska wanted to share with us this stunning new aurora video captured in 4K ultra high resolution.

They ventured out on January 1st in -25F temperatures with an almost full moon and this is what they captured.

Brilliant job and thanks for sharing!









Pretty wicked video. The dog at the end is likely excited to get out of the cold...
re: 290. LAbonbon 11:59 PM CST on January 07, 2015
Quoting LAbonbon:


Thanks for looking into it. Now, I have no clue what 'rapidfire' is, or how one differentiates rapidfire from non-rapidfire PWSs, but I get the gist of what you're saying. I did go to Eufala, and the default was EHD.

So I guess just wait until it finally 'sticks' to the one closest to me. Thing is, when you go to Baton Rouge, and click on 'change station', there's dozens of PWSs shown, and the default is the furthest one from me, and it's not even in the same city, or parish. I tried a couple others, but they don't 'stick' either.

It's not a big deal, it's just inconvenient. I swear, sometimes I feel like a dunce on this site :/

Thanks again for your help, Sar.

Currently 29F, 'feels like' 18...inside it's a comfortable 68, but under my fleece blanket it's downright toasty :)



LAbon, try this - next time you select, view the station you want to refer to most, save / bookmark the URL in your links list. (EDIT / add) - In WU Classic, here's Baton Rouge KBTR page.
Every Human should see the Northern Lights once.

Last time I did it was in Tromso,Norway during a NATO Exercise in 84'.

Grothar was there as well.

Quoting LAbonbon:


Thanks for looking into it. Now, I have no clue what 'rapidfire' is, or how one differentiates rapidfire from non-rapidfire PWSs, but I get the gist of what you're saying. I did go to Eufala, and the default was EHD.

So I guess just wait until it finally 'sticks' to the one closest to me. Thing is, when you go to Baton Rouge, and click on 'change station', there's dozens of PWSs shown, and the default is the furthest one from me, and it's not even in the same city, or parish. I tried a couple others, but they don't 'stick' either.

It's not a big deal, it's just inconvenient. I swear, sometimes I feel like a dunce on this site :/

Thanks again for your help, Sar.

Currently 29F, 'feels like' 18...inside it's a comfortable 68, but under my fleece blanket it's downright toasty :)

Look at the "type" in the last column of the PWS station list and it will say either "Normal" or "Rapidfire". The rapidfire option is to have your PWS update every 3-10 seconds or so. I figure WU's already getting enough of my bandwidth, so every five minutes will just have to do. If you click on your preferred PWS and you don't get a warning in red letters that the site isn't reporting, it should be online, then which one gets shown to you first has something to do with the WU rules I made up. :-)
Quoting 277. Astrometeor:



Mt. Washington is in New Hampshire, USA, not Oregon.

Here is the Observatory's site

There is a Mt. Washington in Oregon that's 1500 feet taller than the one in NH but it's in the middle of a wilderness area so I don't think there's a weather station there.
Quoting DocNDswamp:
re: 290. LAbonbon 11:59 PM CST on January 07, 2015


LAbon, try this - next time you select, view the station you want to refer to most, save / bookmark the URL in your links list. (EDIT / add) - In WU Classic, here's Baton Rouge KBTR page.
That would work too but then you have to get that PWS up in a new tab, and that just means I run out of RAM that much faster...
Quoting 293. DocNDswamp:

re: 290. LAbonbon 11:59 PM CST on January 07, 2015


LAbon, try this - next time you select, view the station you want to refer to most, save / bookmark the URL in your links list. (EDIT / add) - In WU Classic, here's Baton Rouge KBTR page.



Good suggestion. The station 'sticks' when the link is saved in classic. In the current WU the URL doesn't appear to change when different PWSs are chosen. I tried different stations to see if any of them could be saved that way, but no luck (in current WU).

Thanks for your help - for now I'll just use 2 versions of WU -classic for my chosen station, current WU for the blog.

Have a good night, and keep warm :)
Quoting WeatherBAC:
Thanks, could you recommend some good websites that show accurate data? Would really be helpful.
Well, all the sites that show you the GFS are going to show you pretty much the same thing. One our members, Levi32, has his own site called Tropical Tidbits that's free and does a really good job presenting the model information. He's also a really smart meteorology grad student that does video updates during tropical storm system, and he does a good job explaining what the models mean and which ones might be best for a particular storm. The models are there year-round, so it's not just for tropical weather.

The other thing I'd recommend is to always read the forecast discussion from your closest weather service office, which would be Mobile, Birmingham, or Huntsville for most of Alabama with a few far SE counties covered by Tallahassee. Try to follow along with the forecast reasoning and look up any of the models or surface features they talk about. Read the ones from surrounding offices as well. If they all start talking about the same thing from the same model, you can be pretty sure something's up. They generally don't talk about models more than five to seven days out because the accuracy gets to be so bad the further out we get. OTOH, they have been talking about this cold air outbreak for about 10 days. When they do that, you really know something's up. When you can read forecast discussions and understand everything that's in them, you'll know more than about 95% of those that consider themselves amateur forecasters.
Sar, I have one local PWS I check occasionally, saved in my weather bookmarks as I was suggesting for a favorite. That way, avoid WU controlling whatever it decides to display (Twilight Zone!). I just open a whole new page - but yeah, I don't leave ANY of those running in background with all that auto-updating / RAM eating nonsense (we commiserated about other day, lol). It's easy enough to simply click the link when I wanna look again, either in a new tab or page - and directly to MY chosen station.

Wheeee, 32.7F at home, getting there...
Quoting 295. sar2401:

Look at the "type" in the last column of the PWS station list and it will say either "Normal" or "Rapidfire". The rapidfire option is to have your PWS update every 3-10 seconds or so. I figure WU's already getting enough of my bandwidth, so every five minutes will just have to do. If you click on your preferred PWS and you don't get a warning in red letters that the site isn't reporting, it should be online, then which one gets shown to you first has something to do with the WU rules I made up. :-)


Hmmm...we have different info we're looking at. I don't see a column for 'type'. There's an address, a specific station identifier, and temp - that's it. I vaguely recall before the site modifications that the station lists had more columns. Not sure how to see an expanded list.

But, seeing as it's closing in on 1 am, and my frustration is only going to feed my insomnia, I'm calling it quits. Thank you, though, for your help. Tomorrow's another day, and this issue can wait.

Good night, and keep warm :)

Edit/Update - just found the expanded list in Classic - I see what you're saying about 'type'. Tomorrow I'll figure out if this is available in current WU.
Quoting 86. sar2401:

Are you sure you don't have an exposure problem with your thermometer? The airport is reporting 84 with a thunderstorm so I'm sure the temperature dropped as a result of the rain, but the highest temperature I could find on any of the other private weather stations in the last hour was 89 and the airport showed a high so far of 87. What kind of theremometer do you have and how is it exposed?


I Do not use the Airport temperature data because has Meteorological Stations in the city for that. I talked "Porto Alegre" because is "more know" cause the World Cup, but i live in Canoas, Metropolitan Area and next to "Bells Valley" the second hottest area of the state. January 6th we had almost 104ºF and yesterday january 7th we had 100,9ºF while the airports showed just 97ºF. :)
The Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre, including of course Porto Alegre, has microclimate because of the large numbers of rivers and lake and another serie of factors like the buildings and the pavement mixed with this large amount of water around us does large variations of temperatures, sometimes reaching 7ºF in different places of the cities. :)

You can't see very well but here, we have at least 5 rivers, 3 lakes and more than 5 streams. ^^
LAbon, you're welcome! Sorry couldn't offer a NU WU suggestion workaround - I didn't even try from buggy NU WU, might work but I avoid it like the plague.

Indeed, stay warm, G'night!
Quoting DocNDswamp:
Those SE LA mosquitoes that survived the November blast and vegetation that regenerated during our mild December are about to be flash frozen.

Home thermo got to 62.1F 2-3PM, mid-50's as front arrived near sunset w incredible winds as advertised - howling thru the trees like a jet. Now 34.7F, been dropping ~ 2 degrees per hour. Might yet reach predicted 24F. Local KHUM arpt barometer 30.61"R, saw 11 PM readings N LA at Shrvpt and Monroe were 30.81". All-time high pressure records set in many locations up north, particularly South Dakota, Nebraska - Grand Island @ 1056.9 mb / 31.21", Lincoln @ 1055.9 mb / 31.18" and Eppley Arpt Omaha @ 1055.3 mb / 31.16"!

19 actual degrees now with a windchill of 13, and the wind is still up. My own personal calculation is we're going to have a low of 9 degrees, not the 17 degrees they are persisting in forecasting. If so, we beat last years record of 10. I wrote earlier that I don't know what the highest pressure is ever down here and I haven't been able to find it online, but I'm at 30.57", which is the highest I've seen in the 10 years I've been here. It's kind of interesting that all this is going on and I haven't heard or read one reference to "polar vortex". Maybe they wore that one out last year. :-)
Quoting pablosyn:


I Do not use the Airport temperature data because has Meteorological Stations in the city for that. I talked "Porto Alegre" because is "more know" cause the World Cup, but i live in Canoas, Metropolitan Area and next to "Bells Valley" the second hottest area of the state. January 6th we had almost 104ºF and yesterday january 7th we had 100,9ºF while the airports showed just 97ºF. :)
The Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre, including of course Porto Alegre, has microclimate because of the large numbers of rivers and lake and another serie of factors like the buildings and the pavement mixed with this large amount of water around us does large variations of temperatures, sometimes reaching 7ºF in different places of the cities. :)

You can't see very well but here, we have at least 5 rivers, 3 lakes and more than 5 streams. ^^
Yes, when I was there, there were some places that reminded me of Fiji more than Brazil. As you say, it's got a lot of microclimates, and I'm sure some are hotter than others. I'd still check my thermometer exposure though. I looked at every station I could find online in your state and couldn't find one at 100 degrees so relatively early in the morning. Doesn't mean it's not possible, but I get nervous if my weather station starts to show things that are too far out of line with others that are near me.
Quoting LAbonbon:


Hmmm...we have different info we're looking at. I don't see a column for 'type'. There's an address, a specific station identifier, and temp - that's it. I vaguely recall before the site modifications that the station lists had more columns. Not sure how to see an expanded list.

But, seeing as it's closing in on 1 am, and my frustration is only going to feed my insomnia, I'm calling it quits. Thank you, though, for your help. Tomorrow's another day, and this issue can wait.

Good night, and keep warm :)

Edit/Update - just found the expanded list in Classic - I see what you're saying about 'type'. Tomorrow I'll figure out if this is available in current WU.
I know the same data is all there on the new site, I just don't use it so I don't know where they've shuffled everything around to as part of the "improvements". Maybe another new site user can shed some more light on this.

Time for me to go start the water dripping and crawl under my nice warm down quilt. I hope you stay warm as well.
Quoting 305. sar2401:

Yes, when I was there, there were some places that reminded me of Fiji more than Brazil. As you say, it's got a lot of microclimates, and I'm sure some are hotter than others. I'd still check my thermometer exposure though. I looked at every station I could find online in your state and couldn't find one at 100 degrees so relatively early in the morning. Doesn't mean it's not possible, but I get nervous if my weather station starts to show things that are too far out of line with others that are near me.


Link
This is a link of a meteorological station in Sao Leopoldo, something around 10 miles away from here...and look the maximun temperature of yesterday...is write "Ontem" (yesterday in portuguese) and you can see "Máxima" of 39,8ºC/103,64ºF yesterday, this same station recorded 40,4ºC in January 6th. Right now are 06:02 AM and we have 74ºF.
Quoting sar2401:
19 actual degrees now with a windchill of 13, and the wind is still up. My own personal calculation is we're going to have a low of 9 degrees, not the 17 degrees they are persisting in forecasting. If so, we beat last years record of 10. I wrote earlier that I don't know what the highest pressure is ever down here and I haven't been able to find it online, but I'm at 30.57", which is the highest I've seen in the 10 years I've been here. It's kind of interesting that all this is going on and I haven't heard or read one reference to "polar vortex". Maybe they wore that one out last year. :-)


The highest pressure I can recall here has been in range 30.65"-30.70" a few times (although I know the NOLA record is 30.83", Jan 1924). You might set new record, very doubtful will here as record low is 21F, and still at 31 / 30F now, the temp fall rate is slowing. So I'd guess 26-24F probably be coldest gets here. Although the dewpoint temp is 16.5F!

Polar Vortex? LOL, yeah, the media mischaracterized and overhyped it badly last year, but it's there and looking rather January-like with it's typical double-lobed structure -

(Upper Air analysis courtesy University of Wyoming)
100 mb N Hemi -


70 mb N Hemi -


50 mb N Hemi -



LOL, note on the 100 mb chart / 16560 isohypse contour how prominent the Caribbean ridge remains.
;)

Quoting 302. pablosyn:



I Do not use the Airport temperature data because has Meteorological Stations in the city for that. I talked "Porto Alegre" because is "more know" cause the World Cup, but i live in Canoas, Metropolitan Area and next to "Bells Valley" the second hottest area of the state. January 6th we had almost 104ºF and yesterday january 7th we had 100,9ºF while the airports showed just 97ºF. :)
The Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre, including of course Porto Alegre, has microclimate because of the large numbers of rivers and lake and another serie of factors like the buildings and the pavement mixed with this large amount of water around us does large variations of temperatures, sometimes reaching 7ºF in different places of the cities. :)

You can't see very well but here, we have at least 5 rivers, 3 lakes and more than 5 streams. ^^



Hallo. Sorry if i am off topic.
I am aware of the 3 snowfalls in Porto Alegre history in August 1879, in 1910 and last one in August 1984, a showe with wet snow little bit mixed with rain indeed. Accumulation was possible on the hills of PA . I got some pictures.
The 1910 episode was also without accumulation.
But my question is : what about the 1879 episode ? (not 1870 as mentioned in some sources).
Because some sources quote "Porto Alegre acordou coberta de neve." Other sources said diffenrt "Na manha Porto Alegre acordou com as colinas cobertas de neve"
So what ? Was snow on the ground on the city of PA or just on the hills like in the other two occasions ?

It is not clear from the sources i have read, but maybe you in PA had a better chance to see other sources (texts, libraries....)
Obrigado !
310. vis0
CREDIT::Navy ...WxU MEMBERS Grothar & barbamz
Subject:: Tropical Vortex ;-%uFFFD...yeah right, play on arctic vortex
D&T:: on animation
actual VID-DI:: 800x352 (http://youtu.be/zm4iEH684t8)

made a VID error , tried fixing it last might made it worse (text errors). Since i can't edit the VId w/o loosing special characters for a hint as to make an archeological discovery, hints removed.  You can still watch the correct VId at the link.
311. vis0

Quoting 285. sar2401:

Ah, you guys have me all beat, but it's 22 with a windchill of 12 here. I know that's not a big deal compared to up there but this is the Heart of Dixie. You know, magnolias, cotton, mint juleps on the front porch. I'm not supposed to have to put on my parka to dump the trash. :-)
Be happy you don't have to wear your Mukluk boots or Eskimo* knitted* bear claws...till later...+/­­▬ week

 2 words (wise knitters & knitted) similar meaning.
15F 0555 EST. Florence,SC. Wind has decoupled. Expect bottom around 13F. Single digits colder spots.
Record rainfall in remote Cape Leveque on Dampier Peninsula in the Kimberley

More than 400 millimetres of rain has fallen in 24 hours on the remote WA community of Cape Leveque on the tip of the Dampier Peninsula in the Kimberley.

The Kooljaman wilderness camp recorded the rainfall total, which almost doubles the existing January rainfall record at the site of 239.8mm in 2012.

Glenn Cook from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said the figure was so extreme it had to be double-checked.

On closer investigation he realised the figure was even higher than 400mm.

"We understand from speaking to the observer that the rain gauge actually overflowed," he said.

"So that 400mm is really a lower estimate of what actually happened. There was probably a fair bit more rain than 400mm.

"The 400mm ranks as the 10th highest daily fall on record in WA from our records.



"Going back over 100 years it's in the top 10 - so quite a significant daily fall."

Mr Cook said the highest rainfall on record was 567.9mm at Roebuck Plains in 1917.

"Typically all the top 10 falls for any wet season month will be in the Kimberley or Pilbara," he said.

Bureau duty forecaster Adam Conroy said the heavy rain was associated with a slow-moving tropical low south of Derby, which has prompted severe weather warnings and flood warnings throughout the Kimberley.

"Near the centre of the low there'll be the risk of some damaging winds during tomorrow and even into early Saturday morning as it does deepen," he said.

"So rainfall figures over the next 24 hours are set to be quite high again through the West Kimberley."

'I have never seen this much rain'

Koojaman camp worker Georgia Foreman said while several trees had fallen, there had been no structural damage to the resort.

"I've been here for many years and I have never seen this much rain," she said.

"We've had a few trees fall down and stuff. The roads have completely washed away so we can't drive down to the beaches or down around the property.

"There's some pot holes you'd be waste deep in, like at least a metre."

Communities on the peninsula will be cut off from Broome until the Cape Leveque Road, which is currently closed, dries out enough to be re-opened.

"The truck won't be able to come up today that usually brings our order with all of our supplies for the restaurant and also for the staff," Ms Foreman said.


Natalie Jones, Thursday January 8, 2015 - 19:31 EDT

© ABC 2015

_________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _____

SES prepares for 'once-in-30-year' weather event in South Australia with tropical rain to track south

The State Emergency Service (SES) is sending sandbags and swift-water rescue teams into South Australia's north where a major summer rainband is brewing.

The state could experience its heaviest rainfall in 30 years, the weather bureau has warned, as a system develops over the north and tracks south-east over the coming days.

The biggest falls of up to 200 millimetres are expected over higher areas of the eastern Mount Lofty and Flinders Ranges.

Dermot Barry from the SES said campers in those areas should consider leaving.

"We know from past experience that there's huge potential for flash floods in those areas," he said.

"We'd encourage people, if at all possible, to leave early rather than end up stranded or caught in the rain."

Other areas could get as much as 150mm, with up to 50mm expected in Adelaide.



The weather bureau said the last time the state has seen such a rain event was in 1984 and has issued a flood watch for several districts.

Senior forecaster Matt Collopy said the rain band would develop once a tropical low over the north-west combined with a strong upper trough developing in the west of the state.

"This one certainly has the potential to be quite a rare event," he said.

"What we're going to see is a persistent area of high moisture, cloud, showers and then periods of rain and the odd rumble of thunder.

"But a lot of that will depend on exactly how this tropical moisture behaves as it moves down across the Pastoral districts and then along our ranges into those eastern districts over the next couple of days."

The rain was expected to develop near Coober Pedy and travel south towards the eastern Mount Lofty Ranges.

The bureau's John Nairn also said there was a possibility the storm could head west rather than east.

"If the low were to contract further to the west, and that is possible in this current environment, we may see heavy rains go down the Yorke Peninsula and into the Eyre Peninsula," he said.

Storms hit SA as authorities declare bushfire contained

Storms moved across the state today, damping the fire ground in the Adelaide Hills, with more than 38 millimetres of rain falling in Whyalla.

While the rain provided some assistance to crews fighting a bushfire north-east of Adelaide, more than 64,000 lightning strikes fanned by strong winds sparked about 70 fires across the state, but most were quickly extinguished by crews.



Winds brought down trees in parts of the state overnight, and the SES said it had more than 70 calls for help with reports of minor flood damage.

Outages have occurred in the Adelaide Hills, Glenelg, along the far west coast, on Kangaroo Island, and in the state's far north and south east.

The warning came just hours after authorities announced a bushfire burning north-east of Adelaide had been contained.

The 240-kilometre perimeter of the Adelaide Hills bushfire is now 100 percent contained and the major emergency declaration has been lifted.

Premier Jay Weatherill has pledged $1 million worth of assistance, while Prime Minister Tony Abbott announced an Australian per child for bushfire victims who have lost their homes or have had their homes severely damaged by the fires.



While the fire has been contained, the Country Fire Service has warned the threat in the area remained with falling trees still a hazard.

About 600 firefighters from New South Wales and Victoria who have helped fight the fire have begun returning home.

About 132 people required treatment from SA Ambulance Service and a number of animals and livestock were killed in the fires.

Although the bushfire does not pose a threat to life or property at this time, people in the area are advised to check and follow their Bushfire Survival Plan and monitor local conditions.

Investigations into the cause of the fire are ongoing as forensic investigators continue to examine a Sampson Flat property, in particular an area surrounding an incinerator.


© ABC 2015
Good morning folks when you are defrosted by a hot coffee ;-)

This met from BBC really got some skills as an actor when dramatically presenting the "lots of isobars" hitting UK (and other parts of northwestern Europe) the days to come, lol. Worth to watch ...


Click the picture to start.

------------------------------

Moreover, WU-member clearlakemike from Hawaii sent me this link:

Sorry, No Space Heaters: Hawaii Copes With Record Cold
January 07, 2015 4:50 PM ET
Blankets, layers of heavy clothes and thermal socks are some of the ways Hawaii residents are trying to stay warm in a cold snap that has brought record lows. As temperatures hit the 50s, some stores sold out of space heaters.
The cold has been brought on by winds from the north and dry air. And we're not talking about snow and ice on the peaks of Hawaii's volcanic mountains. The cooler air is hitting people where they live, accompanied by strong winds.
In Honolulu, a 122-year-old record was broken when the temperature dropped to 57 degrees Monday, reports the city's Star Advertiser. New lows were also set on Kauai and Maui.
Space heaters were sold out at a local hardware chain store, TV news KHON 2 reports. ...


-----------------------

In contrast, temps will soar to 13C (55F) on Saturday at my place in Germany near Frankfurt due to the summit of the windstorms we are awaiting:


Here a meteogram for my region (GFS ensembles with temps/C and winds at 850hPa):
Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
350 AM EST THU JAN 8 2015

FLZ033-081500-
/O.CON.KJAX.FZ.W.0001.150108T0900Z-150108T1400Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150108T1500Z/
ST JOHNS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST AUGUSTINE
350 AM EST THU JAN 8 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* TIMING...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS MORNING.

* WINDS...20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURE...LOWS WILL BE NEAR 30 INLAND AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

* IMPACTS...TENDER VEGETATION AND PEOPLE SENSITIVE TO THE COLD
SHOULD BE PROTECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST 2 HOURS. APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD BE
TAKEN TO ENSURE TENDER VEGETATION AND OUTDOOR PETS HAVE ADEQUATE
PROTECTION FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES. YOUNG CHILDREN...THE
ELDERLY AND THE HOMELESS ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THE COLD.
TAKE MEASURES TO PROTECT THEM.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH
ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 57 MPH OR
GREATER AT ANY TIME.

MINOR DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE POSSIBLE
WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE.

MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILES VEHICLES ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION
UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES.

STRONG WINDS CAN TOPPLE TREES...BLOW WEAKENED ROOFS OFF HOUSES...
AND DOWN POWER LINES. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SECURE TRASH CANS...
LAWN FURNITURE...AND ANY OTHER LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

PERSONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
WEATHER.

&&

$$
21F on my outdoor sensor this morning!
Here in Indiana the temperatures have been below normal for 16 months in a row, ending December 31, 2014.
January is a continuation of this pattern.
Quoting 245. georgevandenberghe:



Two hour delay in PG County MD for cold tomorrow. Baltimore CO where my daughter's high school is hasn't announced.



My kids to to a suburban Indianapolis school, only a 2 hour delay. Back when I was a kid, there wasn't anything like a 2 hour delay for the cold! looks like the trial lawyers are winning the war!
Fair

25°F

-4°C

Humidity40%
Wind SpeedN 9 mph
Barometer30.56 in (1035.0 mb)
Dewpoint4°F (-16°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill16°F (-9°C)

Last Update on 8 Jan 6:53 am EST

Current conditions at

Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.39°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 79ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather

I have a class at 8:25, not a fan of getting up this early in temps like this! lol
-17 here in Eastern Vermont this morning. Leaving soon for work, had hoped to leave early to park relatively close in, but am running late.

At least the wind hasn't picked up yet.
Quoting trunkmonkey:


My kids to to a suburban Indianapolis school, only a 2 hour delay. Back when I was a kid, there wasn't anything like a 2 hour delay for the cold! looks like the trial lawyers are winning the war!
Or maybe common sense? School's important, of course, but not so important that the day's math and history and grammar lessons can't be pushed back by a few hours so small kids don't have to wait outside in -15F windchills...
16 degrees here in Wilmington, NC and Duke Energy is reporting power outages for customers in our area..what a time to not have power..
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Here in Indiana the temperatures have been below normal for 16 months in a row, ending December 31, 2014.
January is a continuation of this pattern.
Which part of the state? Central seems to have fared well; here's an excerpt from the NWS Indianapolis December weather summary:

"The mild weather pattern that began at the end of November continued nearly the entire month of December. Average temperatures at all climate sites across central Indiana averaged almost two degrees (or more) above normal.

High temperatures were around normal values for nearly the first two weeks of the month. With virtually no snow cover and plenty of cloud cover, low temperatures also remained mild with readings well above average most nights during this period."
Quoting 322. Jedkins01:

Fair

25%uFFFDF

-4%uFFFDC

Humidity40%
Wind SpeedN 9 mph
Barometer30.56 in (1035.0 mb)
Dewpoint4%uFFFDF (-16%uFFFDC)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill16%uFFFDF (-9%uFFFDC)

Last Update on 8 Jan 6:53 am EST

Current conditions at

Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.39%uFFFDN Lon: 84.35%uFFFDW Elev: 79ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather

I have a class at 8:25, not a fan of getting up this early in temps like this! lol


You started back at school already? We don't start until the 12th, but that's not counting the planning days and meetings that begin today.
Quoting 324. Neapolitan:

Or maybe common sense? School's important, of course, but not so important that the day's math and history and grammar lessons can't be pushed back by a few hours so small kids don't have to wait outside in -15F windchills...


What about all of the parents who are required to be at work at specific times? This creates a hardship on them. There are consequences to actions. Unintended and otherwise.
Quoting 324. Neapolitan:

Or maybe common sense? School's important, of course, but not so important that the day's math and history and grammar lessons can't be pushed back by a few hours so small kids don't have to wait outside in -15F windchills...


More on the order of -25 to -30F wind chills (NWS current wind chill warning for central IN). And what about the kids that walk to school? Seems like a prudent decision.


Very rare to see dew points in the teens in FL.



Didn't seem to get too cold here last night. I woke up at 5 AM to check on the house temp. My upstairs thermostat was at 70 and downstairs was at 69, this was without the heat running at all.
7F this AM north of Leesburg. Winds 340/5. Very thankful that the wind fell out and we never saw the 25g40 that was forecast. That's tough on the critters and the "frost-proof" livestock waterers!
Talk about hard core. Recess at 20 below.

Fairbanks North Star Borough School District

During winter, the average low temperatures range from -15 F to -25 F, although it's not uncommon for temperatures of -40 F or even -50 F. The record cold temperature in Fairbanks, according to the National Weather Service, is -61 F.
The school district will not close schools simply because of cold weather.

Outdoor recess is only cancelled when the temperature reaches -20 F

Link
Good morning folks! Well Winter has arrived finally in NW Florida, current temperature along the coast in my little area of NW Florida is 20 with a wind chill of 6! Not sure what our record low is but that has to be close!
Quoting 334. Sfloridacat5:

Talk about hard core. Recess at 20 below.

Fairbanks North Star Borough School District

During winter, the average low temperatures range from -15 �F to -25 �F, although it's not uncommon for temperatures of -40 �F or even -50 �F. The record cold temperature in Fairbanks, according to the National Weather Service, is -61 �F.
The school district will not close schools simply because of cold weather.

Outdoor recess is only cancelled when the temperature reaches -20 �F

Link


Damn, that is hard core but I guess they're used to it!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


What about all of the parents who are required to be at work at specific times? This creates a hardship on them. There are consequences to actions. Unintended and otherwise.
I suppose you're right; there are many heartless and unthinking "job creators" who will quickly penalize an otherwise valuable employee for coming into work two hours late because those employees elected to help prevent their child from getting frostbite or pneumonia. That's one of the many, many areas where unions are so valuable, you know?
Quoting 331. FarmerKarl:

7F this AM north of Leesburg. Winds 340/5. Very thankful that the wind fell out and we never saw the 25g40 that was forecast. That's tough on the critters and the "frost-proof" livestock waterers!
Its currently 6F with wind chill of -5F here (Herndon, VA).
40 here in Longwood and breezy.
If Honolulu hit 57F, some of the interior valleys would probably be 10F colder. Wow. I never felt below 65F in all my years there.

Quoting 315. barbamz:

Good morning folks when you are defrosted by a hot coffee ;-)

This met from BBC really got some skills as an actor when dramatically presenting the "lots of isobars" hitting UK (and other parts of northwestern Europe) the days to come, lol. Worth to watch ...


Click the picture to start.

------------------------------

Moreover, WU-member clearlakemike from Hawaii sent me this link:

Sorry, No Space Heaters: Hawaii Copes With Record Cold
January 07, 2015 4:50 PM ET
Blankets, layers of heavy clothes and thermal socks are some of the ways Hawaii residents are trying to stay warm in a cold snap that has brought record lows. As temperatures hit the 50s, some stores sold out of space heaters.
The cold has been brought on by winds from the north and dry air. And we're not talking about snow and ice on the peaks of Hawaii's volcanic mountains. The cooler air is hitting people where they live, accompanied by strong winds.
In Honolulu, a 122-year-old record was broken when the temperature dropped to 57 degrees Monday, reports the city's Star Advertiser. New lows were also set on Kauai and Maui.
Space heaters were sold out at a local hardware chain store, TV news KHON 2 reports. ...


-----------------------

In contrast, temps will soar to 13C (55F) on Saturday at my place in Germany near Frankfurt due to the summit of the windstorms we are awaiting:


Here a meteogram for my region (GFS ensembles with temps/C and winds at 850hPa):




Forecast for September

Quoting 69Viking:


Damn, that is hard core but I guess they're used to it!


Yeah, kids in my neighborhood wear shorts to school no matter how cold it gets.
There will be a bunch of students at the bus stop this morning wearing shorts with the temperature 47 degrees.
Just hit 19 degrees here. Almost the same exact date of the sub 20 degree freeze of January 2014.
Loudoun / Fairfax County VA schools closed for a second day after they didn't close during the snowstorm. The pendulum swings quickly.

Sounds like this would be shorts weather for the kids in Fairbanks.
What a brutal night to cover small trees with blankets, bungee cords, and cords. We thought everything was pretty well secured. But at around 2:00am I went out to check, and both the lights to provide heat underneath the trees had turned off (ground faulted for some reason) and the whole top of a couple covers had been blown off. It was already 28 degrees and the wind blowing like crazy- bone chilling.
Really cold across north Florida. Extreme S. Florida barely affected by the cold temps.
Wow, it is warmer in Casper, Wyoming (central Wyoming), than sunny Destin Florida right now..
Current temps across S. Florida.
349. yoboi
"Number of major world stations which set their all time highest temperature in 2014: 198 (for comparison, this was 389 in 2013.)

Number of major world stations which set their all time lowest temperature in 2014: 15 (for comparison, this was 12 in 2013.)"

and 2014 suppose to be the warmest year????
Quoting opal92nwf:
Wow, it is warmer in Casper, Wyoming (central Wyoming), than sunny Destin Florida right now..


That won't last too long. Low of 6 degrees tonight in Casper.

Forecast for Casper, Wyoming

Today A 20 percent chance of snow after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 33. West southwest wind 5 to 14 mph becoming north northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

Tonight A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -5. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming west after midnight.
NE flow taking over temps are rising now on the eastside of the state. Next will will be a dense cloud deck.

Quoting 351. StormTrackerScott:

NE flow taking over temps are rising now on the eastside of the state. Next will will be a dense cloud deck.


Yep, and some of those clouds will make it to our side of the state later today.
This is the biggest reason why E C FL down to S FL haven't seen a freeze in years as everytime we get these strong fronts we see the winds switch to the NE shortly after the front passes. Been like this for 2 to 3 years now.
Quoting 348. Sfloridacat5:

Current temps across S. Florida.



Downright balmy :)
Quoting 352. tampabaymatt:



Yep, and some of those clouds will make it to our side of the state later today.


I think that this might have been our best shot at getting a freeze this year because after this a mild pattern looks to set in for the rest of January. That's not to say we won't see a freeze in February but those chances diminish rapidly after the first week in February.
Quoting 349. yoboi:

"Number of major world stations which set their all time highest temperature in 2014: 198 (for comparison, this was 389 in 2013.)

Number of major world stations which set their all time lowest temperature in 2014: 15 (for comparison, this was 12 in 2013.)"

and 2014 suppose to be the warmest year????


You don't need all time records for record average temperature. Come on now, this is basic math.
357. yoboi
Quoting 356. Naga5000:



You don't need all time records for record average temperature. Come on now, this is basic math.



True but....

Annual Global Temperature Anomalies, ranked

1. 1998 0.42
2. 2010 0.40
3. 2014 0.27
4. 2005 0.26
5. 2013 0.24
6. 2002 0.22
7. 2009 0.21
8. 2007 0.20
9. 2003 0.19
10. 2006 0.19
11. 2012 0.17
12. 2011 0.13
13. 2004 0.11
14. 2001 0.11
15. 1991 0.02
16. 1987 0.01
17. 1995 0.01
18. 1988 0.01
19. 1980 -0.01
20. 2008 -0.01

Anybody know where you can get record low temperature data for a particular city? The Weather Channel used to have it available under their local forecast section but since they "improved" their local weather page it's gone.
Quoting 350. Sfloridacat5:



That won't last too long. Low of 6 degrees tonight in Casper.

Forecast for Casper, Wyoming

Today A 20 percent chance of snow after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 33. West southwest wind 5 to 14 mph becoming north northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

Tonight A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -5. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming west after midnight.

Pretty amazing though since that is a place that sees snowstorms and brutal freezing temps as early as October. Most of the weather reports I see from there show temps in the high 20's, about 10 degrees warmer than here on the Gulf Coast.
Quoting 358. 69Viking:

Anybody know where you can get record low temperature data for a particular city? The Weather Channel used to have it available under their local forecast section but since they "improved" their local weather page it's gone.

I came across the same problem both with TWC and Wunderground- frustrating.

Go to Wunderground Classic, and on your city's page down on the left will be a History and Almanac section.

Quoting 360. opal92nwf:


I came across the same problem both with TWC and Wunderground- frustrating.

Go to Wunderground Classic, and on your city's page down on the left will be a History and Almanac section.
You don't have to go to WU classic. It's there already towards the bottom underneath "History".
City Today's Forecast High/Low

Pensacola Sunny 43 /29

Tallahassee Clear 41 / 32

Jacksonville Partly Cloudy45 / 37

Gainesville Partly Cloudy 50 / 34

Daytona BeachChance of Rain 55 / 46

Orlando Partly Cloudy57 / 48

Tampa Partly Cloudy59 / 48

Sarasota Partly Cloudy64 / 50

Fort Myers Partly Cloudy 66 / 54

Vero Beach Chance of Rain 63 / 55

Miami Mostly Cloudy 72 / 63

West Palm Beach Rain Showers 70 / 63

Key West Rain Showers 75 / 66
Cold Morning along the US Central Gulf Coast!

Mobile, AL is 17 degrees! Pensacola, FL is 19 degrees!

BOTH cities broke their record low temperatures for the date.

INTERESTING ....... there will be some offshore showers in the Gulf tonight, wonder if someone is going to get ice pellets .... or more??
Quoting 357. yoboi:




True but....

Annual Global Temperature Anomalies, ranked

1. 1998 0.42
2. 2010 0.40
3. 2014 0.27
4. 2005 0.26
5. 2013 0.24
6. 2002 0.22
7. 2009 0.21
8. 2007 0.20
9. 2003 0.19
10. 2006 0.19
11. 2012 0.17
12. 2011 0.13
13. 2004 0.11
14. 2001 0.11
15. 1991 0.02
16. 1987 0.01
17. 1995 0.01
18. 1988 0.01
19. 1980 -0.01
20. 2008 -0.01




What data set is that? What is the baseline used? You should really source your info.

My guess is you are using the RSS or UAH which neither measure surface temperature. Even the lead scientist for the RSS acknowledges the issue with satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere not being as reliable as the surface data sets: " A similar, but stronger case can be made using surface temperature datasets, which I consider to be more reliable than satellite datasets (they certainly agree with each other better than the various satellite datasets do!)"

Your efforts to misinform know no bounds as you have been confronted about this many times previously.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
347 am CST Thursday Jan 8 2015

Short term...it was a raw night last night. Temperatures dropped quickly
as the sun went down and by 06z much of the area was already dealing
with freezing temperatures. By 8z the northern half of the County Warning Area was mainly in the
middle to upper 20s.

Rather cold day in store. Arctic airmass will firmly be entrenched
over the region and with the surface high sitting over all of the southeastern
Continental U.S.. h925 temperatures of -5 to -7 will warm to -3 to -5 and this should
only yield highs today in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Skies will
generally be mostly clear through the day and into the evening. With
highs as cold as we expect them it will give temperatures a great Jumping
Off Point to drop to freezing once again tonight but there are some
concerns with respect to the temperature forecast tonight. The main problem
tonight will be return of clouds overnight. The thinking is that
clouds will begin to return a weak disturbance approaches the region
late tonight. This will either slow down temperatures after midnight if not
possibly lead to temperatures slightly warming.

Heading into Friday we have a very tricky forecast to determine with
respect to how much precipitation we will see and precipitation type.
The
short wave moving in overnight tonight will push through during the day Friday
but it will also be shearing out and thus losing steam. That said it
will lead to the middle and upper level moistening up a fair bit. The
issue is how fast can we moisten things up and given that this will
be a top down approach how fast will the ll saturate. With the ll
starting off so dry it may take till 14/15z before we see much of
anything reach the ground. As for precipitation type...it will be cold in
the ll but b/T h9 and 700 mb temperatures will likely be above freezing. Temperatures
in these levels appear to peak at around 3-4c and that would typically
lead to completely melting/all liquid. The question is can it precipitation
hard enough wetbulb...leading this warm layer cooling enough to
allow for frozen precipitation to reach the ground. Overall not very
impressed with frozen precipitation chances given the tight window that
will be in place and how dry the ll are but there is a window.
From
around 11/12z through 18z northwestern portions of the County Warning Area may see a
combination of light precipitation. Will show light rain showers/zr/ip first
thing in the morning as surface temperatures will be at or below freezing but
around 15z temperatures at the ground will be above freezing yielding light
shra/ip. As we head into the afternoon both moisture and lift will wane
so we should see whatever precipitation out there coming to an end. One
other thing this short wave will bring will be a reinforcing cold front
which will push through late in the day and offshore Friday evening.

Sat should be another cold one and dry. The reinforcing cold front
will lead to morning lows similar if not a tad cooler than tonights
lows with about 2/3rds of the County Warning Area seeing freezing temperatures. As for
highs as we will struggle to mix to h925 highs and this will lead to
middle 40s to near 50s. In addition the front will help dry things out
again and with a weak middle level ridge over the region we will remain
rain free Sat. /Cab/

(Snipped long term, aviation & marine discussions)
Just looked at my weather station again: it actually hit 18 degrees for a short period of time around 7:10am

Only three of the 8 winters I've been here since 2007 have gotten below 20.

Amazing we had temps this low two years in a row.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I think that this might have been our best shot at getting a freeze this year because after this a mild pattern looks to set in for the rest of January. That's not to say we won't see a freeze in February but those chances diminish rapidly after the first week in February.


The 'rainy season' will be here before you know it. El Nino will be here before you know it. The busted 2015 hurricane season will be here before you know it. Love the daily El Nino graphs you post every day for the past year predicting El Nino that still isnt here :)
Quoting opal92nwf:

Pretty amazing though since that is a place that sees snowstorms and brutal freezing temps as early as October. Most of the weather reports I see from there show temps in the high 20's, about 10 degrees warmer than here on the Gulf Coast.


Yeah, now the main focus of the cold air is across eastern half of the U.S.

Remember the snow in Southern California last week while the East Coast was nice and warm?

Cold air dives down, while warm air moves up.



Quoting Naga5000:


What data set is that? What is the baseline used? You should really source your info.

My guess is you are using the RSS or UAH which neither measure surface temperature. Even the lead scientist for the RSS acknowledges the issue with satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere not being as reliable as the surface data sets: " A similar, but stronger case can be made using surface temperature datasets, which I consider to be more reliable than satellite datasets (they certainly agree with each other better than the various satellite datasets do!)"

Your efforts to misinform know no bounds as you have been confronted about this many times previously.
It's from UAH--or rather Spencer's page. What's so funny about Spencer's persistent denial of warming is that even his denialist-friendly UAH dataset clearly shows warming--and not of the "statistically insignificant" variety he claims:

Quoting 367. WxGuy2014:



The 'rainy season' will be here before you know it. El Nino will be here before you know it. The busted 2015 hurricane season will be here before you know it. Love the daily El Nino graphs you post every day for the past year predicting El Nino that still isnt here :)

But, It's a ---5 year!
Quoting 367. WxGuy2014:



The 'rainy season' will be here before you know it. El Nino will be here before you know it. The busted 2015 hurricane season will be here before you know it. Love the daily El Nino graphs you post every day for the past year predicting El Nino that still isnt here :)


Well find out at any minute to see if the CPC will pull the trigger as the ONI is 0.7C. Their update is this morning. Will it stay on alert mode or go to El-Nino? Personlly I don't think the CPC will pull the trigger today as the ESPI is -.61.
Quoting 361. Drakoen:


You don't have to go to WU classic. It's there already towards the bottom underneath "History".


Yeah, I guess having the thing where you instantly set the date you want right on the home page wasn't "tidy" enough for the new site..

Thanks for pointing that out, I'm glad the feature is still on the new site.
In Baldwin County, Alabama the temperature difference isn't that different, even Gulf Shores which is constantly affected by the tropical warm influence of the Gulf of Mexico has close to the same temps as Little River which is at the north end of the county some 65 miles away. Anyway temps range from 19 at the beaches to 16 in Bay Minette with a windchill of 9. some might say we are being wimps about this cold air, but down here is South Alabama it only get this cold every 3 or 4 years.
Quoting 360. opal92nwf:


I came across the same problem both with TWC and Wunderground- frustrating.

Go to Wunderground Classic, and on your city's page down on the left will be a History and Almanac section.


Good job covering you plants last night. That was impressive!
Quoting 342. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, kids in my neighborhood wear shorts to school no matter how cold it gets.
There will be a bunch of students at the bus stop this morning wearing shorts with the temperature 47 degrees.

I remember in the 17 deg freeze of 2010 when I went to school it had to have still been right around 20 degrees, one girl was wearing a skirt and she didn't seem to care or be suffering...
it was 16 degrees when I got to work this morning in Lucedale, MS...
By next weekend (17th - 18th), the GFS is forecasting a big warm up across the U.S.

2015 January Quick Look
Published: January 8, 2015

A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)

Use the navigation menu on the right to navigate to the different forecast sections

During December 2014 through early January 2015 the SST exceeded thresholds for weak Niño conditions, although only some of the atmospheric variables indicate an El Niño pattern. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate weak El Niño conditions during the December-February season in progress, continuing through most or all of northern spring 2015.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Well find out at any minute to see if the CPC will pull the trigger as the ONI is 0.7C. Their update is this morning. Will it stay on alert mode or go to El-Nino? Personlly I don't think the CPC will pull the trigger today as the ESPI is -.61.


Crazy to think it was given over a 60% chance and its still not here. Just shows how tough it is to predict and that even though long range models have been saying it for year its not to be trusted.
Quoting 337. Neapolitan:

I suppose you're right; there are many heartless and unthinking "job creators" who will quickly penalize an otherwise valuable employee for coming into work two hours late because those employees elected to help prevent their child from getting frostbite or pneumonia. That's one of the many, many areas where unions are so valuable, you know?


It gets worse! I pulled this from a

North Carolina Labor policy FAQ site.




Does my employer have the right to make me come to work during adverse weather conditions?

Yes. Since an employer does not have to have an adverse weather policy at all, the employer can simply inform its employees that they must report to work whenever the business is open regardless of the weather conditions or road conditions. With very few employment law exceptions (discussed below), an employer can make staying at work or reporting to work during adverse weather a condition of employment.

What if the governor declares a "state of emergency" and asks everyone to stay off the roads?
It does not matter if state officials have declared a state of emergency and are advising people to stay off of the roads. The decision to stay open or to close, for its employees to remain at work or leave early, or for its employees to report to work or not during adverse weather conditions, is entirely up to each individual employer to make on its own.

Employment-at-Will
How an employer treats its employees during adverse weather conditions comes under the concept of "employment-at-will". This means that unless there is a specific law to protect employees or there is an employment contract providing otherwise, then an employer may treat its employees as it sees fit, and the employer can hire or discharge employees at the will of the employer for any reason or no reason at all.


The link containing this




http://www.nclabor.com/wh/fact%20sheets/adverse.h tm


note something is inserting a space between h and tm. Remove the
space when pasting into your browser
Published: January 8, 2014

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion issued jointly by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: There is an approximately 50-60% chance of El Niño conditions during the next two months, with ENSO-neutral favored thereafter.

During December 2014, positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). At the end of the month, the weekly Niño indices ranged from +0.8°C in the Niño-4 region, to +0.5°C in the Niño-3.4 region, to 0.0°C in the Niño-1+2 region (Fig. 2). The positive subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º-100ºW) also decreased during December (Fig. 3) in response to an upwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). Although the surface and sub-surface temperature anomalies were consistent with El Niño, the overall atmospheric circulation continued to show only limited coupling with the anomalously warm water. The equatorial low-level winds were largely near average during the month, while upper-level easterly anomalies continued in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remained slightly negative, but the Equatorial SOI remained near zero. Also, rainfall remained below-average near the Date Line and was above-average over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Overall, the combined atmospheric and oceanic state remains ENSO-neutral.

Similar to last month, most models predict the SST anomalies to remain at weak El Niño levels (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 0.9°C) during December-February 2014-15, and lasting into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (Fig. 6). If El Niño were to emerge, the forecaster consensus favors a weak event that ends in early Northern Hemisphere spring. In summary, there is an approximately 50-60% chance of El Niño conditions during the next two months, with ENSO-neutral favored thereafter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog.

The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 5 February 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Quoting 371. StormTrackerScott:



Well find out at any minute to see if the CPC will pull the trigger as the ONI is 0.7C. Their update is this morning. Will it stay on alert mode or go to El-Nino? Personlly I don't think the CPC will pull the trigger today as the ESPI is -.61.


I think they are still trying to get their cars started :-)
Time for a riddle :-) What is this?



(Fresh shot from satellite Terra/MODIS, showing the storm front -"Christian/Elon" - approaching the British Isles to the right)

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Published: January 8, 2014

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion issued jointly by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: There is an approximately 50-60% chance of El Niño conditions during the next two months, with ENSO-neutral favored thereafter.

During December 2014, positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). At the end of the month, the weekly Niño indices ranged from +0.8°C in the Niño-4 region, to +0.5°C in the Niño-3.4 region, to 0.0°C in the Niño-1+2 region (Fig. 2). The positive subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º-100ºW) also decreased during December (Fig. 3) in response to an upwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). Although the surface and sub-surface temperature anomalies were consistent with El Niño, the overall atmospheric circulation continued to show only limited coupling with the anomalously warm water. The equatorial low-level winds were largely near average during the month, while upper-level easterly anomalies continued in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remained slightly negative, but the Equatorial SOI remained near zero. Also, rainfall remained below-average near the Date Line and was above-average over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Overall, the combined atmospheric and oceanic state remains ENSO-neutral.

Similar to last month, most models predict the SST anomalies to remain at weak El Niño levels (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 0.9°C) during December-February 2014-15, and lasting into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (Fig. 6). If El Niño were to emerge, the forecaster consensus favors a weak event that ends in early Northern Hemisphere spring. In summary, there is an approximately 50-60% chance of El Niño conditions during the next two months, with ENSO-neutral favored thereafter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog.

The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 5 February 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
So, now there's only at best a 3-in-5 chance that a weak El Nino will peak between now and the end of February--and an even smaller chance after that?

I dunno. I was feeling pretty confident before that it might happen, but now I'm not so sure; those aren't very bettor-friendly odds...
Well looks like we tied our record at 19 this morning! Crazy thing is how dry it is, no frost anywhere, Dewpoint is sitting at 1! The ironic part about tying the record low of 19 is we set it last year on this date!
Quoting 356. Naga5000:



You don't need all time records for record average temperature. Come on now, this is basic math.


This is America, home of the free and the lack of sound education.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
389. yoboi
Quoting 385. Neapolitan:

So, now there's only at best a 3-in-5 chance that a weak El Nino will peak between now and the end of February--and an even smaller chance after that?

I dunno. I was feeling pretty confident before that it might happen, but now I'm not so sure; those aren't very bettor-friendly odds...


Maybe better odds when betting on climate models...no???


whew more for the northeast......................................... ...................
391. vis0
Quoting 349. yoboi:

"Number of major world stations which set their all time highest temperature in 2014: 198 (for comparison, this was 389 in 2013.)
%u2028Number of major world stations which set their all time lowest temperature in 2014: 15 (for comparison, this was 12 in 2013.)"

and 2014 suppose to be the warmest year????
see #392 can't correct errors on an old post i guess (forgot #4 tried adding it a few minutes later wasn't accepted)
392. vis0

Quoting 391. vis0:

see #392 can't correct errors on an old post i guess (forgot #4 tried adding it a few minutes later wasn't accepted)

     1st good day
        2nd warmest on record for Earth. Not one spot, not Mars, not over yonder, but Earth the place that allows you to breathe cleaner air 'cause mother nature unconditionally through processes of several sciences within this universe that recycles things, does her job like changing polluted air into cleaner air.  If i where to nit pick i could say on several days that my apt broke WARMEST or COLDEST record depending if i forgot to turn off the stove or left the fridge door open. BTW don't pick on that i left the fridge door open and how that added to global warming by wasting energy 'cause then you'll notice that though an area can be cooler my kitchen (no the fridge in not in the bathroom...anymore) it will contribute to a warmer larger area, known as Earth.
       3rd i have stated since the 1970s (though i  have zero credentials* as to science) , that nature will first lean towards crazy weather patterns (sudden shifts including record breaking cold) in trying to adjust an imbalance of atmospheric gases that  human created, by using the extra warm to transport ANY weather system further/faster in any direction.  Then it will start warming slowly but surely (no i didn't call you Shirley) like a good roasted chicken. Whether earth takes 50 yrs or 500 yrs to reach conditions detrimental to humankind or anything alive the final result is not good and if one can do something now to help others in the future why not, i'm sure someone you know sacrificed their life so that you & i could post our opinions so why not use ones mind to help those that will be walking on the same planet, land, street, yard you've walked on.   Remember the Pilgrims (my apologies to natives whom took care of land for centuries before) were they not here ~500 yrs ago and zooooom to today and you are on the land they cultivated and benefiting from their "discovery" of a new land.  (again, my apology to natives, and thank you natives for flowing with nature and gaining wisdom through that flow.
       4th If in a future year if we only have 10 all-time breaking cold records all by .05 a "F degree", NO warm records broken but that is 'cause 30 records of warmth missed by .05 of a "F degree" (Fahrenheit, not cursing) the trend is still towards warmer.  Let me put it this way,  what would you say if a metal floor you're standing on has underneath it 100 adjustable temperature spots, the controls to change them are on the wall on the other side of the room. You have 15 spots are slightly colder & 10 spots are slightly hotter the rest (75 spots) are slowly heating up from 65F towards 125F. You would stay and just mosey across the room or at a certain point walk towards the thermostat and change the settings so the floors temperature are more agreeable with your senses in not wanting your toes to burn.  Do you like where you live, don't want to move due to changes in weather & ocean patterns try lowering the stress on mother earth, she'll thank you by not burning your toesies.
        5th i understand you state that in years of long ago (that only Grothar saw) Earth had higher imbalances in her atmosphere. Understand those imbalances, oh lets say high CO2 took MANY i mean MANY (20 times to 40 times...understatement) more years to reach than what humans have done in their lifetime... hi5 we did it wooHOO! (as another wxu comment sarcastically posted) ...oh wait its not a hiFIVE moment when one passes their responsibilities onto children. If your answer is to point out other people that you think have passed on their responsibilities to children, correct?  Then you show the world how you will not do that and support as an individual, ways to lower CO2 emissions & locally help family & friends install money saving appliances that save on stressing nature, win-win. To an individual it might not seem like much but think of each single ant that moves their fair share (more than they weigh, on a full "stomach"?) out of the ground or pieces of food to create spacious and bountiful living quarters for them...in NYC that tiny space; $800 per month x down payment..unfurnished...you do get lifetime supply of pet roaches. "ca,peace"
Quoting 362. Sfloridacat5:

C�ity Today's Forecast High/Low

Pensacola Sunny 43 /29

Tallahassee Clear 41� / 32�

Jacksonville Partly Cloudy45� / 37�

Gainesville Partly Cloudy 50� / 34�

Daytona BeachChance of Rain 55� / 46�

Orlando Partly Cloudy57� / 48�

Tampa Partly Cloudy59� / 48�

Sarasota Partly Cloudy64� / 50�

Fort Myers Partly Cloudy 66� / 54�

Vero Beach Chance of Rain 63� / 55�

Miami Mostly Cloudy 72� / 63�

West Palm Beach Rain Showers 70� / 63�

Key West Rain Showers 75� / 66�


It was 25 with a wind chill of 14 as I went to my first class this morning, it was darn cold, icicles on the school fountains and tropical plants looking dead or wilted, tropically depressed plants lol.

It's fun having it get this cold for a short time, but I'm glad it's not always this cold, it would wear on me lol.
Quoting 356. Naga5000:



You don't need all time records for record average temperature. Come on now, this is basic math.

Never underestimate some Americans avoidance of using even basic math.

It's not that they can't, some just don't want to.
Here in Tampa Bay, just north of Tarpon Springs, the temp bottomed out. It was 59.2F at midnight. By 4am, it was 39.6F and falling, windy. By 7am the low of 34.9F was achieved with winds gusting to 20 mph. Do the math! That is cold. It warmed to 57.0F today and is currently in the upper 40'sf, but shoudl not drop much more due to cloud cover and wind. COLD! Last Saturday I had 83.9F with a dewpoint of 70F. A crazy "non El Nino, oh wait it might be El Nino" winter!