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Global cooling

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:24 AM GMT on January 15, 2007

Global temperatures in 2006 were the third coldest on record in the lower stratosphere, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Only 1997 and 2000 had colder temperatures since record keeping began in 1979 (Figure 1). Why is this important? Well, the stratosphere is that layer of the upper atmosphere approximately 14-22 km (9-14 miles) above the surface that contains our protective ozone layer. The main reason for the recent stratospheric cooling is due to the destruction of ozone by human-emitted CFC gases. Ozone absorbs solar UV radiation, which heats the surrounding air in the stratosphere. Loss of ozone means that less UV light gets absorbed, resulting in cooling of the stratosphere. Cooling of the stratosphere results in the formation of more polar stratospheric clouds, which require very cold temperatures to form. The presence of these clouds allows even more ozone destruction to occur, since the reactions responsible for ozone destruction occur much faster in clouds than in dry air. Thus, the recent cooling of the stratosphere allows high levels of harmful UV light to reach the surface. As CFC gases begin to decline in coming years thanks to banning of these substances in 1987, the stratosphere should start to warm, and ozone levels will recover.

Figure 1. Global lower stratospheric departure of temperature from average since 1979, as measured by satellites. The large spikes in 1982 and 1991 are due to the eruptions of El Chicon and Mt. Pinatubo, respectively. These volcanos ejected huge quantities of sulphuric acid dust into the stratosphere. This dust absorbed large quantities of solar radiation, heating the stratosphere. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Greenhouse gases also cause stratospheric cooling
However, this recovery of the ozone layer is being delayed. A significant portion of the observed stratospheric cooling is also due to human-emitted greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane. Climate models predict that if greenhouse gases are to blame for heating at the surface, compensating cooling must occur in the upper atmosphere. We need only look as far as our sister planet, Venus, to see the truth of this theory. Venus's atmosphere is 96.5% carbon dioxide, which has triggered a run-away greenhouse effect of truly hellish proportions. The average surface temperature on Venus is a very toasty 894°F! However, Venus's upper atmosphere is a startling 4-5 times colder than Earth's upper atmosphere. The explanation of this greenhouse gas-caused surface heating and upper air cooling is not simple, but good discussions can be found at Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and realclimate.org for those unafraid of radiative transfer theory. One way to think about the problem is that the amount of infrared heat energy radiated out to space by a planet is roughly equal to the amount of solar energy it receives from the sun. If the surface atmosphere warms, there must be compensating cooling elsewhere in the atmosphere in order to keep the amount of heat given off by the planet the same. As emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise, their cooling effect on the stratosphere will increase. This will make recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer much slower.

Greenhouse gases cause cooling higher up, too
Greenhouse gases have also led to the cooling of the atmosphere at levels higher than the stratosphere. Over the past 30 years, the Earth's surface temperature has increased 0.2-0.4°C, while the temperature in the mesosphere, about 50-80 km above ground, has cooled 5-10°C (Beig et al., 2006). There is no appreciable cooling due to ozone destruction at these altitudes, so nearly all of this dramatic cooling is due to the addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Even greater cooling of 17°C per decade has been observed high in the ionosphere, at 350 km altitude. This has affected the orbits of orbiting satellites, due to decreased drag, since the upper atmosphere has shrunk and moved closer to the surface (Lastovicka et al., 2006). The density of the air has declined 2-3% per decade the past 30 years at 350 km altitude. So, in a sense, the sky IS falling!

What about global warming being caused by the sun?
Some scientists have theorized that increases in solar output are responsible for a significant portion of the observed global warming. For instance, Scafetta & West (2006) estimated that 25-35% of the global warming in the 1980-2000 period was attributable to solar variability. Other scientists disagree, finding no evidence of global warming due to solar activity changes since the 1940s. Since any increase in solar radiation would heat both the lower and upper atmosphere, the observed drop in upper atmospheric temperatures in the past 30 years argues against a large portion of the observed greenhouse effect being caused by solar variability. The observed cooling of the upper atmosphere in recent decades is strong evidence that the warming at Earth's surface is due to human-emitted greenhouse gases. It should also give us additional confidence in the climate models, since they predicted that this upper atmospheric cooling would occur.

I'll be at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society in San Antonio this week, and plan to post a blog from there Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

where is everyone tonight
thanks for the informative post, Dr. Masters.
This passage sure is confusing.

One way to think about the problem is that the amount of heat radiated out to space by a planet is roughly equal to the amount of heat energy provided by the sun. ... in order to keep the amount of heat given off by the planet the same.

It is going to cause some grief, I think.

I changed this to read:

One way to think about the problem is that the amount of infrared heat energy radiated out to space by a planet is roughly equal to the amount of solar energy it receives from the sun.

Hope this makes it clearer.
Jeff Masters

I agree with Snowboy, interesting stuff.

I recommend the realclimate.org link.
Still PUSHING the tunnels, huh?
*laughs under breath*
Somethings never change, I guess!
В othr слова из СССР .. ТУННЕЛЯХ WONT DO Все для weather.Tunnels чьи worl.Lenin woulda от laughed.Lenigrad Tunnels.Tubes.New Cylone
Agreement in the Models and the measurements confirming them is very interesting stuff.
Could'nt agree with you more, Patrap.

Les tunnels n'existent pas. Ils aiment les fes et les trolls et le pre nol. .LOL. Homme idiot, vous drle. Ha !
I wonder if Dr. Masters is going to talk about the huge winter storm that is occurring right now. Here are some reports from the Springfield, MO area:

01/14/2007 0600 PM
Springfield, Greene County.
Ice storm, reported by law enforcement.
1 to 1 1/2 inches of ice accumulation on trees and power
lines throughout Greene County. Massive destruction to
trees... power lines and power poles. Trees down onto
houses and cars.

01/14/2007 0437 PM
Republic, Greene County.
Ice storm, reported by NWS employee.
Entire city without power for the past 30 to 48 hours.
Estimated 75 to 80 percent of trees in the city have been
damaged or destroyed.

01/14/2007 1214 am
5 miles NE of Willard, Greene County.
Ice storm, reported by NWS employee.
Catastrophic tree damage. In wooded areas... trees and
tree limbs are cracking at a high rate. Many homes
without power. Freezing drizzle continued through the
evening. Ice accumulation about an inch to inch and a

01/12/2007 1035 PM
Springfield, Greene County.
Freezing rain m0.00 inch, reported by official NWS obs.
1 1/4 inches of ice accumlation from freezing rain at the
NWS office.

News: Ice Storm Lashes Much of U.S.; 20 Dead

Imbcile de Blogging du numro un de Patrap. Il fatigue juste de l'idotie dans un dcent quipe Blog.You n'ont aucun respect pour la Chambre sainte de WUBA.
Aquecer-se global causado pelo excesso do ar quente que emite-se desta discusso.
Vous carlingue a le mme regard que votre arrangement de tunnel. Ce Cyclonebuster est-il dans la photo
Я бы предпочел услышать о туалетах на эту дискуссию мне хотелось чем туннели!
Надеюсь, вы Build TUBE лучше, чем в кабине ..

Я полагаю, он пытается пр Оскорбление мне д-р randrewl.Do Вы согласны?

По крайней мере я после солидного рабочего модель рабочей арматуре, что получите больше, чем использование вашего salyut .. или Восток

Туалеты вашей работы .. dont.They никогда did.will .. Как без памяти в любом месте сидел
Получите замечание? Voudoujm Ленинград .. Москва .. Tunneils,, daspigona.G ulag Tunnels.Rapunsul DAVinci, Archmedies .. Вулет
omfg, cyclone shut up bout em Tunnels. Care more about Globel Warming, Hurricanes, Space Shuttle! Any thing, just stop Sayin Tunnels!

Ричард Паскаль в закон (также называемый принцип Паскаля) гласит, что "изменение давления в любой точке прилагается жидкость в покое передается неизменной на всех точках жидкости и действовать во всех направлениях". ( "Концептуальная физика", авторские права 1993 года +44 Издательство Колледжа.) Это звучит довольно подавляющем, во-первых, давайте разделим наше вниз немного. Когда он говорит "прилагается жидкость", что означает, что для того, чтобы закон Паскаля, чтобы быть правдой, Вы бы смотрит на жидкость в закрытом контейнере. Давление в основном красивые слова, сколько что-то толкает его на контейнере и на вещи в нем. Так, например, давление воздуха, как трудно воздух толкает на вещи. Если насос все больше и больше воздуха в шинах вашего мотоцикла, вы усиливают свое давление. Если у Вас усилить давление слишком быстро, Затем он будет вытесняя более чем пластиковые способен пожалуйста, и Ваши шины будут взрываться. Давление воды работает по-другому. И позволяет говорить у вас долго, закрытая труба с водой с поршнем на одном из концов. (В поршневом является кусок трубы с одного конца, за исключением того, что в нем можно передвигать вперед и назад с помощью ... трубы так она может быть использована для сжатия воды.) При нажатии на поршень, Затем вы изменение размеров, что воду приходится поднимать, поэтому отбивать на поршень еще больше. Это означает, что вы изменили это давление. К Паскаля закон, мы знаем, что существуют не только изменения давления рядом с поршнем, но он изменился всего через трубу. Итак, вода вытесняя по всей галерее больше, и толкаю ее в каждом направлении. Скажем, вместо этого нам пришлось долго воду из трубки с поршнями на / и /, заканчивается. Затем, если мы будем продвигать одного поршня, давления в воде будут расти, как и прежде, так вода будет нажав на поршень другой тоже. Если не нашлось ничего проведение других поршень вниз, Затем толкаю в воду по ней приведет к слайду с помощью трубки от воды. Но поскольку давление передается "ненанесение ущерба" посредством воды, она фактически точно, насколько это первый поршень переехали. Давление измеряется силой ощущается определенный объем площади. Например, вы могли бы иметь давление от 1 фунта / см ^ 2. Это значит, что вода нажав на контейнер с силой 1 фунт на квадратный сантиметр поверхности контейнера. Причина того, что мы заботимся об этом, потому что мы можем использовать его с Паскаля закон. Например, скажем, мы контейнер с большим открытым пространством в середине, и две трубы, видимо, намереваясь его. Как и раньше, есть поршень на конце каждой трубки. Различие здесь, однако, заключается в том, что одна из труб большего, чем многое другое. Скажем, небольшой поршень имеет 1 см кв (1 см ^ 2) площадь поверхности, и один большой квадратный 100 см (100 см ^ 2) площади. (До большой - 100 раз размером с небольшой есть.) Тогда мы даем по маленькой в силу 1 фунта Поскольку я толкаю на 1 см ^ 2 в силу 1 фунт, мы увеличили давление на весь контейнер (с Паскаля закон) до 1 фунта / см ^ 2. Это значит, что большой поршень будет давил на давление от 1 фунта / см ^ 2. Но с большой поршень имеет намного больше района, давил (100 см ^ 2), она будет чувствовать себя усилием 100 фунтов! (Это происходит потому, что 1lb / см ^ 2 = 100 фунтов / прочные ^ 2.) Это очень полезно, поскольку означает, что мы можем использовать небольшие силы в один большой без проведения какой-либо дополнительной работы! Это - концепция, лежащая в основе всех типов гидравлических насосов. Так, например, Вам доводилось принять Вашу машину в магазине и вынести ее на лифт, это, вероятно, как они сделали это! Это лишь один пример того, как закон Паскаля работает и поэтому так важно, но есть много других, тоже
Por que, Lo siento El Cyclonebuster Donde esta El espano?
tunnels can kill Link
Translation; Why, Im sorry cyclonebuster, do you speak spanish?
This is more important that your tunnels, which can go up your @$$...

Welcome to San Antonio, Dr. Masters. Hope you enjoy our weather this week.

В издание : Patrap в 9:47 РМ КНТ от 14 января 2007 года. ПОСЛЕ ЧТЕНИЯ ниже может привести к СМЕРТИ ИЛИ BLINDNESS
some things never change...just give it up.
I wanna see Trolls attack,
tunnels can prevent ice storms now????....can they cure cancer as well????

Ci tutto il difetto di Cyclonebuster. Quei trafori hanno fuso il ghiaccio!
howd i know hed have an answer for me...jesus...lol
I suppose if you got this, you would go away for a LONG time... LOL!!!

Tubes and Tunnels are fantasies..Like Fairies and The Tooth Fairy
They exist in a Salt-water main frame only in someones BHG.Thats short for Brain housing Group.
The Ideas are fodder to get attention here.I try to tell the man.But hes a grown up.He has free will.I leave him to the fray.
Plus my B-day is in 2 Hrs CST.Im feeling giddy.LOL! Gnight CB...tunnel vision in your Dreams.MUAH!
I cant CB..Lots to do with Family tommorrow,Thanks anyway,.Ill post some pics tommorrow night in my blog.Take care.
I knew that blog entry from Masters would cause trouble. Post something no one will understand and you get this!
Dr. Masters
Does the reduction of infrared radiation being returned to space from earth in any way contribute to the loss of heat in the upper atmosphere? Do the high clouds being formed from this observed cooling also reduce and therefore trap more long wave radiation on the surface? As the polar caps melt does the overall amount of moisture in the atmosphere increase there by reflecting more infrared radiation back to the surface? Talk about a run away situation. Thank you for your blog!
The IR going to space does not decrease! Heat is being redistributed in the atmosphere. That happens along with the drop in stratospheric temps.

The only way for the IR going to space to increase would be for the radiation coming in to increase. That is part of his final paragraph.

Since any increase in solar radiation would heat both the lower and upper atmosphere, the observed drop in upper atmospheric temperatures in the past 30 years argues against a large portion of the observed greenhouse effect being caused by solar variability. The observed cooling of the upper atmosphere in recent decades is strong evidence that the warming at Earth's surface is due to human-emitted greenhouse gases. It should also give us additional confidence in the climate models, since they predicted that this upper atmospheric cooling would occur.

If the cooling occurs in the stratosphere, I would not expect clouds to form. The stratosphere is awfully dry.

Melting ice caps increase atmospheric moisture in the arctic because it exposes more ocean. That is supposed to be speeding up the loss of arctic ice.

And they also prevent free radicals from getting into the atmosphere which should lower lung cancer cases as well since less fossil fuels are being burned!

And tunnels also walk your dog and do the dishes.
I flagged the last post.
I flagged the last post

I'm sorry,you mean mine?
In order for the earth to warm up at all, it would have to gain heat, meaning that it receives more energy that it radiates, especially when you consider how much heat is needed to warm the oceans up; this is a big factor in moderating temperatures.
flagging away
By the way, when you flag a comment, it also affects YOUR rating as well... go around flagging every single comment and guess what? You get blocked from the view of others (Aaron intentionally did this to help prevent people from doing what you did... and this make me mad if you flagged my comments as well).
So you disagree?

I think it is irresponsible and insensitive to say that the tunnels could prevent some kinds of cancer.I know several people who have died from cancer,and I'm sure others on this site have as well.
Ummm... CB, I wasn't talking to you...
My sister in law 29 years old had her lung removed because of cancer! The doctor said it was caused from free radicals since she never smoked a day in her life! So it makes sense if the tunnels remove free radicals then it makes sense they can prevent cancer

I didn't say it wasn't true,I said show some sensitivity.

For the first time this winter, one of the good runs (00z and 12z) of the GFS is showing extremely cold temperatures making it to South Florida.If this occurs, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the coldest temps since the January '03 event.

And they also prevent free radicals from getting into the atmosphere which should lower lung cancer cases as well since less fossil fuels are being burned!

I'm sorry,but when someone reads that,they picture you saying it with a smile and a foam finger.
Great blog entry. The Max Planck Institute for Chemistry link is good & graphical.
Had to dig out a new WU polar stratospheric clouds pic from the last time it was brought up.

click to make bigger.

Also known as Nacreous Clouds, they still get me, that the destruction of ozone is what makes them so beautiful. & now to see, that CO2 & what not only makes them more common, in yet another negative feedback loop.

Odd that one's over Colorado, I thought they were more common nearer to the poles.
Long wave radiation is reflected. Clouds, moisture and any pollutants will block IR transmission and reflect it back to its source. On a clear cold night what part of your car frosts? The sides? Bottom? No the upper part will cool and frost first as it loses IR to the clear sky. Take an IR picture of the sky even on clear sunny day. What will it show, the lower range value of the camera. Clouds indicate 0 degrees C. Storm clouds show somewhat higher temps. My question is not unlike the movie "The Day After" in that if a certain point is reached with this warming could things get out of hand in months rather than years. You know, more fresh water, less ocean currents distributing the earths heat.....
I fully realize I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed but some times the little things get overlooked..I missed the things about the "tunnels & tubes" What happened to "holes"
If the cooling occurs in the stratosphere, I would not expect clouds to form. The stratosphere is awfully dry.

When cooling in the stratosphere happen the CFC's can bind with the ozone & destroy it. It has to get so cold for this to happen. During that process those pretty polar stratosphere clouds form.
Who knows,76.I'm no climate expert,I like more right-now weather.I'm sure the tunnels will solve everything.
76degrees~ I see where your coming from. The models keep calling future events but it's happening sooner then the worst of the gloom & doomers called for. & then things like this where over just the last few years (interesting to see the updates through time on realclimate) some other negative feedback loop pops up that hadn't been given much a thought. Those explain why the model was slow but not helping with the hope.
I guess this does lend more hope to the whole ~ a few good volcanoes could help us out here.
hey skye, a few good volcanoes would for sure help out - both at the stratospheric level but also down lower, where the ash/dust simply reflects back a whole lot of incoming solar..
Guide the water, (missile?) through the tunnel!
god not the crazy STUPID tunnels again some one please ban him!!!!!!!!
A major contributor to this destruction is the R-22 being leaked into the atmosphere from outdated air conditioning and heating systems. Not the residential systems, but the refrigerant used in industrial systems holding hundreds if not thousands of pounds of these chlorine based refrigerants. New legislation being proposed spear-headed by Sen. Joe Leiberman(I)
can be a start in slowing the problem, by modifiying these systems to a more friendly refrigerant that doesent depleat the atmosphere. these new refrigerants contain no chlorine which is the ingredient causing all the damage. More to come
Cyclone, I like the idea of your tunnels. So, if they do work, whos paying for them?
We have our own tunnel blasters up here....tunnel blasters
Snowboy, interesting the scientific solutions keeps coming back to volcanoes from different aspects.

Bigtrucker~ any sites with form letter that eveyone can quickly send to their senators?
Had to check out about those clouds in that pic being over Colorodo...

Nacreous clouds are a type of Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC).

Type II
Nacreous clouds composed of ice crystals with temperatures of ~minus 85C.
Type I
Less spectacular than nacreous clouds, more diffuse and less bright colours. Sometimes nacreous clouds are embedded in them. Type I clouds are slightly warmer (~ minus 78C) than Type II and are composed of exotic solids or liquid droplets.

Type Ia
Crystalline compounds of water and nitric acid - especially NAT, nitric acid trihydrate HNO3.3H2O
Type Ib
Small spherical droplets of a solution of nitric and sulphuric acids.
Type Ic
Small non spherical particles of a metastable nitric acid - water phase

PSCs were long regarded as curiosities and of no real consequence. However, Type I clouds are now known as sites of harmful destruction of stratospheric ozone over the Antarctic and Arctic. Their surfaces act as catalysts which convert more benign forms of manmade chlorine into active free radicals (for example ClO, chlorine monoxide). During the return of Spring sunlight these radicals destroy many ozone molecules in a series of chain reactions. Cloud formation is doubly harmful because it also removes gaseous nitric acid from the stratosphere which would otherwise combine with ClO to form less reactive forms of chlorine.

That pic is so colorful, most likely type II.
Skye,did you see the 00z GFS?HUGE cooldown coming in 300h for South Florida.Coldest event of the year.
Sky - Ive seen those I think over Cook Inlet in the winter. Not that good though. Ive seen the Fata Morgana looking at the Alaska Range across Cook Inlet. The near Arctic has a lot of cool atmospheric effects. Its so still and quiet in winter too - like being in a photograph.

If I ever sell this place I think I will move back up there.

We all know how wrong the GFS can be that far out, but if it is correct then seasonal lows will be set sometime in the next two weeks.The 12z GFS supports the 00z GFS and is even a little cooler.
Latest news on the ice storm:

Ice storm blamed for 30 deaths across 6 U.S. states; thousands without power
Betsy Taylor, Canadian Press
Published: Monday, January 15, 2007
ST. LOUIS (AP) - Utility crews worked Monday to restore electricity to about 330,000 Missouri households and businesses that were still without power in chilly weather following a storm blamed for 30 deaths across six states.

Crews hoped to take advantage of moderate weather Monday - with only a few lingering snow showers and flurries - to bring power back on before an expected drop well below freezing Monday night. The remains of the storm system streamed toward New England on Monday, shutting down numerous businesses, day-care centres and schools in Maine with a mixture of sleet and snow that made roads treacherous.

Lower Michigan and parts of New England could see more than 30 centimetres of snow Monday, as rain fell from the lower Mississippi Valley up through the Ohio Valley, the U.S. National Weather Service said. On the back side of the storm, snow in Iowa closed some schools Monday.

Waves of freezing rain, sleet and snow since Friday had been blamed for at least 15 deaths in Oklahoma, six in Missouri, five in Iowa, two in Texas and one each in New York and Maine.

Seven of the Oklahoma deaths occurred in one accident, in which a minivan carrying 12 people slid off an icy highway Sunday and struck an oncoming truck, the Highway Patrol said. All of the van's occupants were adult residents of Mexico travelling from Arizona to North Carolina, Highway Patrol Capt. Chris West said.

Most of the Missouri power outages - the majority in the state's southwest corner - were caused by the weight of freezing rain snapping tree branches and dropping them onto power lines, officials said.

Guardsmen went door to door checking on the health and safety of residents in the hardest hit parts of the state and helping to clear slick roads.

Amtrak cancelled Sunday service between Kansas City and St. Louis because of to fallen trees and other debris on railway tracks. Airlines in Texas cancelled 415 flights because of the weather Sunday at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport. On Monday, 100 more departures at the airport were cancelled.

Elsewhere, a weekend cold snap that had worried citrus growers and other farmers in California produced rare freezing temperatures Monday in southern Arizona. The 8 a.m. reading in Phoenix was just under 0 degrees Celsius, the weather service said.

During the weekend, the cold had frozen water pipes in the Phoenix area.

"This is something that we don't think about much here," said Ken Kroski, spokesman for the Phoenix Water Services Department, which was flooded with calls about burst pipes.
hi CB
I missed all weekend on here playing SW Battlefront II online.I came back when I realized I was horrible.
PC,Playstation and XBOX.You've never heard of it?
Have you seen the big cold front that's going to make it's way into South Florida in about 250h?We're talking mid-low 30s if the GFS is right.
It's Star Wars
The people online are good
If you ever get sick of the bad AI, connect your game system to the internet.The people are all as good or better than I am.
Does anybody have any idea why ice storms seem to be the main form of winter weather this winter; first the ice storm here at the end of November, then an ice storm in Nebraska (many of the pictures here are simply incredible) and now the near-countrywide ice storm that is still going on, leaving significant accumulations from Texas to Maine.
STL, because there have been no 'deep' polar air masses this winter.They have all been relatively 'shallow'.When that happens, you don't get snow, you get ice.
That trend will seem to change soon, as sometime in the next two weeks what looks to be the coldest weather thus far this winter arrives, at leas tin South Florida.We're talking low-mid 30s possible in South Florida if the GFS is corrrect.
It is a cause and effect situation of global warming! As the Arctic Polar ice cap melts global temps will rise. This means it won't be as cold as it used to be in the more Northern latitududes which means there will be more ice storms!

That's not what he meant.He meant the operational reason as to why the winter storms have been ice and not snow.You're answer is more of an answer to the question of why my answer is what it is.
Could pan out to be true! However, such normal events that should happen two or three times a year are happening less often now do to the reasons I explained above! Warmer temps are very good for the citrus crop though!

Which is too bad since I like cold weather.That's something I agree with you about.Some types of citrus are sweeter after cold weather,though.
Check out the snow depth charts between 2006 and 2007 and you begin to realize the full effect that global warming has upon us! Is it to late to stop the run away train effect?

The difference between two years can't be used to prove or disprove global warming.
I don't really like citrus anyway,though.
The difference between 1976 and 2006 can given the amount of Arctic ice melt!

True,1977 was COLD in South Florida.Flurries all over the state.To bad I wasn't alive then.Did you ever hear of the Great Blizzard of 1899?
hi everyone
Well im hoping for another cold spell all over florida its boiling here
Hi TS2
TS2,I can't wait to see what you're saying this summer.
Orlando FL

78 F / 26 C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 48%
Dew Point: 57 F / 14 C
Wind: 4 mph / 6 km/h / 1.5 m/s from the SSE
Pressure: 30.15 in / 1021 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
Try 98 with a heat index of 115 this September.With no power after the recent hurricane.
Lambert-St. Louis International Airport
Last Update on Jan 15, 2:51 pm CST
Light Snow
Temperature: 27F (-3C)
Humidity: 78 %
Wind Speed: W 18 G 26 MPH
Barometer: 30.18" (1023.1 mb)
Dewpoint: 21F (-6C)
Wind Chill: 14F (-10C)
Visibility: 9.00 mi.
That's cold
whats the weather like where you are Kris
I can identify with that - I spent four days without power last summer during the hottest week of the year (temps over 100 and 120-130 heat index).
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 9:29 PM GMT on January 15, 2007.

Lambert-St. Louis International Airport
Last Update on Jan 15, 2:51 pm CST
Light Snow
Temperature: 27F (-3C)
Humidity: 78 %
Wind Speed: W 18 G 26 MPH
Barometer: 30.18" (1023.1 mb)
Dewpoint: 21F (-6C)
Wind Chill: 14F (-10C)
Visibility: 9.00 mi.

My thermometer has 77.7 with a dewpoint of 65.3.
Yep! I remember those days after Andrew, also!

I wasn't talking about Andrew.
Then you need to go back into the shower and then when you come back out again you start sweating and well its a cycle
A system going warm near Antarctica?

It looks like it but i may be wrong
A system going warm near Antarctica?

Nothing unusual with that; virtually every strong extratropical cyclone becomes warm-core at some point (called a warm seclusion); this archive has a very strong example that occurred in 2003 (first one).
So what I was!

I didn't mean to sound argumentative,it was just that you put also at the end.I wasn't sure if you thought I was talking about Andrew or not.
no problem CB.Thanks for the link STL.
Cloudsat of the ice storm this morning.
Anyone around the Tampa area? If so did you see anything about some strong winds coming through???
bswigg~ I'm straight across the state in Melbourne. The 1st mention of gale winds after the front (starting wed) was in the NWS discussion this morning. Click on my name if your not on dial up, I keep the local updated there.
Im in the middle in Orlando and i did hear something about strong winds but don't make much of it
Agreed TS2. It was a maybe this mornign & not even mentioned in the 2pm discussion. Tampa expecting gusts less than 25mph for wed & that night.
thanks everyone...have been looking for something on this, said it was on the news this morning and lots of damage to roofs and trees...I have not found anything on it...
Several fronts are expected to move threw south florida in the coming days with a strong front scheduled to move threw the area this weekened bringing very cool temps.For now expect cloudy skies every now and then with scattered showers moving threw the area.
From realclimate..
So do all climate changes cause opposing trends in stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures? No, it depends on the physics of each case. A good counter-example is that of solar forcing. An increase in the sun's irradiance such as occurs over the 11-year sunspot cycle (or potentially longer time scales) warms the stratosphere (due to increased absorbtion by ozone) but it also warms the troposphere.

This with the climate data, is a whole new approach to the arguement that global warming is the sun's fault.
189. flsky
I make a major part of my living doing disaster work. Needless to say, this past hurricane season was lucky for everyone else, but a pain in my pocketbook. I'd like to get some opinions about continuing this sort of work. Will global warming expand my work, or make it even less feasible?

Friends of mine tell me it's ghoulish doing a job that depends on the misfortune of others, but I tend to take the "glass half full" outlook. When there is a disaster, those people affected need someone like me to help them through it - even though it benefits me finanacially.

This may be an inappropriate topic for this blog, but my guess is that there are others here who do the same type of work that I do. I'd appreciate getting your feedback.
The coldest nite of the season thus far in south florida is looking to be that of the 26th.Goodnight,this is supported by the 00z GFS.
what the hell, here's 2 cents worth flsky:
First - Global warming won't necessarily expand your market of the unlucky per se. As in, the slow rise of sea levels wont sneak up and knock over houses and power lines. Or an increase of 2 degrees in air temps wont cause the elderly to faint en mass.
To the degree (pun) that warming causes more dynamic instability in weather patterns, more extreme events may impact people thereby converting them into your customers. Which gets at the real answer: The more development there is in flood plains, on earthquake faults, and in cyclone landfall areas the more victim customers you will get. Your market is indeed expanding if only by the wanton relaxation of building codes and civil planning. I once saw a trailer park in a dry riverbed north of Ventura. Those people became flood victims not from some freak storm, but because they ignored the freeway bridge 30 directly above them.
Second Capitalism has its crass greedy majority to be sure. But theres nothing to say that if you provide a good product or service at a fair price it becomes exploitation, even following a disaster. Just because youre helping someone recover from a trauma doesnt mean you cant charge a reasonable price to keep you in the business and help even more people.
Last if you might think theres some advantage youre taking ask that Paptrap guy on here, hes sure to set ya straight.
AlL I know this week is what U2 and Billie Joe were screaming last Month, still.. in Hawaii! This! Take note in Chicago!,....
Tunnels are imagination .Faith without works.A non-reality.Give it a rest.Please CB.I get more mail over your silliness and me trying to keep ya out of here with it.Every time we are seen here.So please.Keep it on topic.Tubes are not a topic.Lets talk about the tropics..or Saints football.Im limited on RAM in my head this week..LOL!
Or Il break out the Universal Translator again.
Filtered.No one sees ya now.
Its your statements that are silly.Every one knows that but you apparentlly.Id thought I would share that with you..again.But your like a lil dog that keeps following people Home.Go home!..now,..geet!
Fool on the Hill
Nowhere Man..
Cant you read?
below..."Filtered.No one sees ya now."
Tubes ...LOL..Tubes..LOL..Tubes..LOL..Tubes.,,LOL
Sci-fi fodder..LOL
Cbs ideas in Action..
Morning Patrap - how are you?
Thats you CB.."never Learn".Never fold..Just beating away with a Hammer till someone agrees with ya.Good luck..youll need it.LOL!
Gm saddlegait..Beating back the Silliness this am.Awaiting Mailman.LOL!
Jesus Complex..
Prego sig. Cyclonebuster. .do non portare le vostre idee del craziness alla buona gente dell'Italia. Grazie signore.
217. V26R
CB Check your mailbox
fisky~ Brunsky really hit it on the head about the irresponsible building that's gonna keep you in business. But even then, there will be years without serious landfalls. My nieghbor is into some of the disaster clean up & recycling. His montra is diversify, have other irons in the fire & businesses on the side that have nothing to do with relief work, but can be put on hold or run by an employee when disaster calls.
Help is on the way. Hopefully a few prayers will be answered soon...
i agree with you mrpuertorico
hi to anyone thats on this blog
Winter weather has finally come to Southern Ontario. Since early this morning, the temps have dropped with this cold front moving through and we got a nice covering of snow last night. Looks like we could have this cold front for a bit longer as it moves across to the East coast.
Winter looks like it finally arrives!!
intresting. Models show 48ft waves of eastcoast jan 21 ?
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Hi everybody, Doesa anyone have an EL NINO update? Last time i heard it was around 0.8!
That is unlikely that there are going to be 48 ft waves by jan 21 but its not impossible
hi 882MB
233. 882MB
thnx bye, be back later!
How about a link to a model that has 48' waves...I've looked at 4 different models & though we should get a low forming off the cape & racing NE with wind & waves, uh nothing near that big.
any one hear that monserat is expecting a major volcanic event. I wounder how big it will be and if it will effect the world's climate or my climate like more ash in the rain
Oh & thanks for the plug Randrewl. ENSO is still about .8, next week I expect more of a drop.
Good Afternoon again everyone
MrPR~ This one?
The Volcanic threat Level is still at 4
La Nina by July?

Below normal shear in the Carribean for June and July?

thats the one article in the local paper last week said they were expecting a "significat erruption event"
It could turn out that way
Its going to be a very interesting summer
Look at the subsurface anomalies.
Interesting little discussion about a possible reason for the atypical effects of the current El Nio.
Ice Storm Warning

Statement as of 11:10 AM CST on January 16, 2007

... Ice Storm Warning remains in effect from 6 PM this evening to
9 am CST Wednesday...

Temperatures have risen above freezing across much of the area this
morning. The bulk of precipitation is either north of the area or south
of the area. If precipitation was to develop this afternoon... only rain
and no frozen precipitation is expected.

Another round of wintry precipitation is possible again tonight as
the next disturbance moves in from the southwest. With temperatures
expected to fall to near freezing later tonight through Wednesday
morning... the threat of a mix of freezing rain and rain will increase
which could lead to dangerous winter weather conditions across the
area. If precipitation does not materialize with this next disturbance
or forms north or south of the area again... the threat of frozen precipitation
will be diminished.

Bridges and overpasses will be most at risk tonight through Wednesday
morning as any rain that does develop will have the potential to freeze
on contact with the surface. This will make travel increasingly hazardous
tonight and early Wednesday morning.

Ice accumulations between one tenth and one quarter inch are possible
tonight through Wednesday morning.

Conditions are expected to improve late Wednesday morning. Please continue
to monitor the latest updated forecasts on this developing weather situation.

Where is that T2?
Thats a warning for anyone who lives in the SE of Texas
he is asking what AFD is it from?
well i got it off of WU
Just the area is fine. I have some inlaws in that general area. I'll just type in their City, State. Thanks.
CB,see my blog.
And by the way,no one(or at least not me) is denying that warming is taking place and it is being caused mostly by human related processes.
Latest ice storm news:

Storm kills 46 in 7 states
By Ben Dobbin
The Associated Press
Article Last Updated: 01/16/2007 12:42:32 PM MST

The death toll from the storm was at least 46 in seven states.

The weight of the ice snapped tree limbs, shorted out transformers and made power lines sag, knocking out current to about 145,000 customers in New York state and New Hampshire on Monday, though service had been restored for roughly half of them by this morning.

"If you live here long enough, you just know the power's going to go out twice a year, at least. You don't worry about it," said Scott Towne, owner of Rondac Pet Services near Saratoga Springs, N.Y., where portable generators provided light and heat for about two-dozen dogs. "You make all the plans in advance that you can." Scores of schools canceled classes or opened late today in New Hampshire and upstate New York in the Northeast and Oklahoma and Texas on the southern Plains.

The storm had largely blown out of New England by this morning, leaving up 10 inches of snow in western Maine.

A wave of arctic air trailed the storm, dropping temperatures into the single digits as far south as Kansas and Missouri. The 7 a.m. temperature today at Kansas City, Mo., was just 2 degrees, while Bismarck, N.D., had a reading of 16 below zero, with a wind chill of 31 below, the National Weather Service reported.

Cold air also was moving into the East, where temperatures have been far above normal in recent weeks and the ground has been bare of snow. Instead of skiers, the unseasonable weather has drawn out golfers and bicyclists.

Icy roads cut into Martin Luther King Jr. holiday observances from Albany, N.Y., to Austin, Texas, where officials moved Texas Gov. Rick Perry's inauguration indoors today and canceled the traditional inaugural parade.

More power outages were possible in New Hampshire as wind battered ice-laden branches. "We are restoring some and adding more," Public Service Co. spokeswoman Mary-Jo Boisvert said this morning. Some New York customers might have to wait until Thursday, the utility National Grid estimated.

In hard-hit Missouri, the utility company Ameren said it would probably not have everyone's lights back on until Wednesday night.

As of this morning, about 215,000 homes and businesses still had no electricity.

The White House said today that 34 Missouri counties and St. Louis had been declared a major disaster area, making federal funding available. A similar federal disaster declaration was approved Sunday for Oklahoma.

About 100,000 homes and businesses were still waiting for power today in Oklahoma, some of them waiting since the storm's first wave struck on Friday. Ice built up by sleet and freezing rain was 4 inches thick in places. The Army Corps of Engineers assigned soldiers to deliver 100 emergency generators to the McAlester area.

Customers in some rural parts of Oklahoma might have to wait until next week for service, said Stan Whiteford of Public Service Co. of Oklahoma. "There are a lot of places where virtually everything is destroyed. In some cases, entire electric services will have to be rebuilt," he said.

More than 200,000 customers in Michigan also lost power and about 86,000 of them were still blacked out today.

Waves of freezing rain, sleet and snow since Friday had been blamed for at least 17 deaths in Oklahoma, eight in Missouri, eight in Iowa, four in New York, five in Texas, three in Michigan and one in Maine.

Elsewhere, Washington state's Puget Sound area, known for off-and-on drizzle rather than freezing winter weather, was hit by another round of snow today, snarling traffic and closing schools for more than 380,000 students. The Oregon Legislature delayed hearings and sessions until afternoon because of the weather.

In California, three nights of freezing weather had destroyed up to three-quarters of the state's $1 billion citrus crop, according to an estimate issued Monday. Other crops, including avocados and strawberries, also suffered damage.

"This is one of those freezes that, unfortunately, we'll all remember," said A.G. Kawamura, secretary of the California Department of Food and Agriculture.

--- Associated Press writers April Castro in Austin, Texas; Betsy Taylor in St. Louis; Sean Murphy in Oklahoma City; and Timberly Ross in Omaha, Neb., contributed to this report.
STL,see my blog
I think we may be looking at the most destructive ice storm ever recorded... for comparison, here are the stats for the 1998 ice storm (remember that ice storms are very common in the areas hit in 1998, so they can handle them much better and that it affected a very small area, compared to the recent ice storm which affected less prepared areas and from Texas to Minnesota to Maine):

If not the most destructive ever, at least the most destructive in the U.S.
261. ryang
Cyclonebuster come to my blog!
Sadly, we are going to see more events such as this as the Arctic ice melts away!

What kind of sense does that make?Maybe in the short term as polar airmasses become shallower,but in the long term they would descrease.
263. ZRR
These cold polor stratospheric conditions form right along with warm zonal winter weather conditions, witch was definately the case in 1997-98. How do we know global atmopheric flow changes are not causing the cooling rather than ozon depletion. Durring a zonal flow there is much less mixing with air from the lower lattidudes and polar air. This causes the cold poles and the subsequent polar statospheric clouds.
Posted By: ZRR at 5:54 PM CST on January 16, 2007.

These cold polor stratospheric conditions form right along with warm zonal winter weather conditions, witch was definately the case in 1997-98. How do we know global atmopheric flow changes are not causing the cooling rather than ozon depletion. Durring a zonal flow there is much less mixing with air from the lower lattidudes and polar air. This causes the cold poles and the subsequent polar statospheric clouds.

Hmmm... does the stratosphere mix with the troposphere? I do know this: circulation in the troposhere is not related to the stratosphere, just as winds at the surface can be completely different that upper level winds (upper level meaning the upper troposphere). Also, the poles are WARMING, not cooling... and at an astonishing rate... take this example, from far northern Canada (as close to the North Pole as I could get):

This doesn't support the "much less mixing between warm and polar air" theory; otherwise, it should be much colder than normal, not much warmer (over 3*C above normal is shocking when the earth supposedly has warmed by a fraction of this).
Skyepony at 10:02 AM EST on January 15, 2007.
Bigtrucker~ any sites with form letter that eveyone can quickly send to their senators?

I wrote to the Senator for any info he could send. im also working on a blog titled refrigerant and the atmosphere. And if the general public was made aware of, and acted by voicing their support, more legislation would take place
The CAA is just starting to kick in here.
269. ZRR
Correction (Artic Ozone fluctuations) are directly realted )Ozone depletion is directly related to high lattitude flow patterns. The upper tropausphere is connected to the lower stratosphere in wind and temperature advection. High lattitude blocking and amplified flow patterns do mix warmer air into the statusphere. As for the surface record in both polar regions it is very limited compaired to the rest of the global land masses. Weather Stations in antartica have registered cooling in the last 20 years even Realclimate.org admits to this but is good at explaining it away. Fact global stratuspheric clouds are much more common in Antartica because of lack of land masses to disturb the polar circulation the south pole. So the flow is much more zonal. That fact combined with a land mass centered over the pole creates both a colder tropausphere and statusphere. There fore a much bigger ozone hole. Also and any one can research and verify this during zonal winters in the northern hemisphere areas such as Greenland, Alaska, and other artic regions are often below normal!!! While the midlatitudes (continental US) are above normal. This november Fairbanks Alaska rercorded its 4th coldest november on record, of course this wasn't paid much attention because it doesn't help the global warming hysteria.
270. ZRR
This is a good site to get an understanding of what the polar vortex is and how it is related to all layers of the atmophere.
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Hey everybody, I was in ACCUWEATHER.COM and all they are talking about is a very STORMY AND COLD EASTCOAST for the END OF JANUARY INTO FEBRUARY with big storms coming out of the GULF OF MEXICO, take a look at what i just read:The GFS shows a storm blowing up in the Gulf of Mexico as colder air is on the way in next Wednesday, but sends the storm to the east. If the upper-level support ends up a little farther west, it could come up the East Coast.
272. flsky
How nice to read some interesting and informative comments tonight!
Former NHC director Dr. Neil Frank. Houston forecast video.
274. ZRR
True statospheric temperatures have droped and leveled out since the early 90's, and ozone depletion is a valid theory, my point is the low levels noticed over the northern hemisphere recently and all interannual variation of ozone at both poles are almost directly related to atmopheric circulation and polar temperatures. And everytime the media picks up a record low level of ozone, or record ozone hole it always seems to be related to weather patterns over the poles.
Thanks for the link ZRR! Stupendous stuff.

All I know about the stratosphere is what I read in my Golden Nature Guide book as a kid. LOL!
276. ZRR
Quote Dr. Masters -
We need only look as far as our sister planet, Venus, to see the truth of this theory. Venus's atmosphere is 96.5% carbon dioxide, which has triggered a run-away greenhouse effect of truly hellish proportions. The average surface temperature on Venus is a very toasty 894 F! However, Venus's upper atmosphere is a startling 4-5 times colder than Earth's upper atmosphere. The explanation of this greenhouse gas-caused surface heating and upper air cooling is not simple,

I have to take issue with compairing our atmosphere with that of venuses. Venus's atmophere is about 100 times more dense than ours. If our atmosphere could contain 95% carbon dioxide it still would be a much smaller amount of carbon dioxide than on venus. The fact that venus is shrowded in dense cloud cover is probably a bigger factor in its greenhouse effect. Venus's atmosphere is a thick soup of totally different chemical composistion. As far as its upper atmophere being much colder than ours, well think of the last hurricane image you viewed in the infared satelite loop. Look at the temperature/color scale, those high convective cloud tops that punch into the upper atmophere sometimes -100F or more. Seing that venus is so cloudy I think that has something to do with it. Its crazy that all the weather problems in the solar sytem must be due soley to this single devestating molecule ( a mear trace gass on earth and will probably always be that way) we call CO2. Or thats the perception they want people to believe. Using concepts and theories we don't fully understand to build more concepts and theories just leads us further into rediculous science fiction.
Venus is indeed a nasty place but the fact is we don't know, maybe there was race of humans living there long ago, raised the CO2 levels to a tipping point and the oceans boiled and .....I swear from some of the stuff I read they would have you believe that.