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Giving thanks to the Hurricane Hunters and QuikSCAT scientists

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:54 PM GMT on November 21, 2007

Everyone knows that flying into hurricanes is dangerous work. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have flown a number of dangerous flights over the years, most recently in Hurricane Felix on September 2 this year. NOAA P-3 aircraft N42RF (affectionately called Kermit), penetrated a rapidly intensifying Hurricane Felix as it approached Category 5 intensity. The aircraft hit four G's of acceleration in both the up and down directions in Felix's eyewall. Regulations require a flight to be aborted at that level of turbulence, and Kermit returned to base. A detailed inspection of the aircraft the next day revealed no damage, and Kermit returned to service for the remainder of hurricane season.


Figure 1. A NOAA P-3 refuels in Cold Bay, Alaska (left) on its way to the Aleutian Islands to fly a mission in the 1987 Alaska Storms Program. Right: The two NOAA P-3's get de-iced at Brunswick Naval Air Station, Maine, as they prepare for a mission into a 'Noreaster during the Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA) in 1989. Both photos taken by yours truly.

What is less appreciated is that these aircraft fly research missions into dangerous weather conditions year-round and world-wide, and some of the most dangerous flights have occurred far from the tropics. Earlier this year, Kermit experienced perhaps the most dangerous flight of its 31-year career. On February 9, the aircraft flew into an intense winter storm 500 miles east of Newfoundland. The mission was part of the Ocean Winds project, a study designed to test the accuracy of QuikSCAT satellite wind estimates in regions of high wind and heavy rain. Flying at 3,000 feet, the aircraft sampled the surface winds with its SFMR (Step Frequency Microwave Radiometer) and dropsondes. The flights were timed to coincide with an overhead pass of the QuikSCAT satellite, which also measured winds at the ocean surface. It was a bit of a rough ride, since the storm packed winds of 100-110 mph at flight level. Sea spray kicked up by the powerful winds reached all the way to flight level, coating the windshield with a thick white coating of salt. The windshield washer failed, leaving the windshield partially opaque. It was an unusually dry winter storm, and the rain showers needed to rinse the windshield clean were difficult to find.


Figure 2. QuikSCAT wind profile of the ocean surface at 21:22 GMT February 9, 2007, just before Kermit headed back to St. John's, Newfoundland.

After a successful 4-hour flight, the aircraft dropped its final dropsonde, and turned north to complete its final sampling run. Suddenly, crew members observed flames coming from the #3 engine, accompanied by an audible popping sound. "Fire on #3, flames, flames, flames!" came the cry over the on-board intercom system. The pilots and flight engineers immediately began an emergency shut down of the #3 engine. As they worked to shut down the engine, the ominous call, "Fire on #4!" came over the intercom. The pilot immediately began an emergency shut down of the #4 engine. With both engines on the right wing now shut down, the pilot cautiously ramped up power on the two engines on the left wing, turned the aircraft towards home base in St. Johns, Newfoundland, and attempted to climb. However, the aircraft was not able to climb on just two engines, and the pilot was forced to begin a gradual descent to 2600 feet. The pilot notified the crew to review their ditching placards, and word was send to air traffic control informing them of the emergency. Three tense minutes passed, as the crew attempted to figure out what had caused the multiple engine failures. Speculation centered on the unusually heavy accumulation of salt on the aircraft--but excessive salt had never been implicated in engine failures before. Then, the words they all dreaded, "Fire on #1!" burst out over the intercom. The flight engineer immediately pulled the emergency shutdown handle for the #1 engine, and Kermit began a 700 foot per minute descent towards the turbulent sea below.

The crew donned survival suits as the pilot issued a May-day distress call and prepared to ditch the aircraft. Beneath them, hurricane force winds blew over the night-shrouded North Atlantic waters. With waves easily reaching 20 feet, water temperatures near freezing, and 500 miles out at sea at night, prospects for survival were dim. Four minutes remained to restart one of the flamed-out engines, and the pilot called for an immediate restart of the #1 engine. As the flight engineer worked to comply, Kermit passed through a brief rain shower that washed considerable salt from the aircraft. The attempt to restart the #1 engine succeeded, and Kermit pulled out of its descent just 800 feet above the waves--one minute from impact.

The crew now worked to restart the failed #3 and #4 engines, while the plane slowly climbed away from the ocean surface. As they headed towards Newfoundland, the Canadian Air Force launched a search and rescue C-130 aircraft from Nova Scotia to intercept Kermit. Crews on the Hibernia and Terra Nova oil rigs located east of Newfoundland were alerted of the emergency, and stood by to help if necessary. Kermit's navigator continuously plotted vectors to the oil rigs at they flew home, in case a ditch near one of the rigs became necessary.

As they continued westward, the crew successfully restarted both the #3 and #4 engines, but at reduced power. Kermit climbed to a more comfortable altitude of 14,000 feet and made it uneventfully back to St. Johns. Fortunately, the engines were undamaged and perfectly operational after the salt was washed out, and the data collected during the mission was saved. According to the detailed NOAA Mishap Investigation Report posted on Chris Mooney's excellent blog, "Post flight inspection of engines revealed significant white build up on intakes, first stage compressors, and CIP probes of all four engines. Subjectively, the #2 engine appeared to be the worst coated of all engines. Aircraft fuselage and windows were also heavily coated." Salt build-up on the engines was determined to be the cause of the incident. The unusually dry nature of the storm prevented the salt from being washed off, and was probably part of the reason the engines failed on this flight, and not on previous flights.

I asked Dr. Jim McFadden, project manager of the Ocean Winds project, what happened. He was on the flight, and responded:

This event stumped everyone including the experts who spend a life-time studying sea salt and aerosols in the marine boundary layer. Six previous flights in similar conditions had resulted in nothing like this. But this one was different. It was flown over an ocean warmed by the Gulf Stream in a dry slot of cold Canadian air. Somehow that combination was the key to what could have been a disastrous flight. Fortunately, quick thinking and the flawless action of the crew brought about by excellent training got us home safely.

Last week in Washington D.C., the crew of Kermit was honored with the Department of Commerce's Gold Medal for successfully bringing home the aircraft. The crew members from NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center who were on the flight were:

LCDR Mark Nelson
LCDR Carl Newman
Joseph Klippel
LCDR Peter Siegel
LCDR Joseph Bishop
Tom Shepherd
James Barr
Terry Lynch
William Olney
James McFadden

QuikSCAT scientists Paul Chang and Rob Contreras were also present on the flight.

Separate Department of Commerce Gold and Silver Medals were also awarded last week for scientists involved in leading NOAA's operational use of NASA's QuikSCAT satellite to produce more accurate forecasts and warnings of marine and coastal weather:

Paul Chang
Hugh Cobb III (NWS)
Roger Edson (NWS)
James Franklin (NHC)
Richard Knabb (NHC)
Eugene Legg
Kevin Schrab (NWS)
Joseph Sienkiewicz (NWS)

A Gold Medal is defined as distinguished performance characterized by extraordinary, notable or prestigious contributions that impact the mission of the Department and/or one operating unit and which reflect favorably on the Department. Congratulations to all the awardees, and thanks for all that you do!

Jeff Masters

Aviation

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I lived up in Ohio for ONE winter..that was enough for me. I guess if you're used to that...it's nice.
Awww,how could you not enjoy slush,ice on the windshield -20 degree windchill,snow drifts
Well,gotta get back to work,bbl
flaboy.....LOL!!! I thought you guys NEEDED the rain up that way
Chow, NE...take care
Y'all take care...I'm out
The West Pacific is still crazy active. Just because we had a dull year doesn't mean mama earth is napping. ;)
Atlanta is the place that really needs rain. I don't know if they need all that lightning very much tho. We just went thru a bunch of skeeters that were fightin' the buzzards for the road kill, and there's still some water in the ditches. So, I'd be glad to let Atlanta, etc have this one.lol
HQSteve. I made a comment last night about the far east looking like every surface low seems to make at least a tropical storm and make landfall. And every storm over there seems to have at least one right behind it. It kinda' looks like the inbound flights into a busy airport like Atlanta.
On CSpan 2 there are people "testifying" about GW and the cryosphere. :)
Hey Folks. Hows things been
510. HopquickSteve 12:57 PM EST on November 26, 2007
On CSpan 2 there are people "testifying" about GW and the cryosphere. :)


I'll bet they don't go anywhere without a load of plastic bottles of spring water, which have triggered an environmental alert (the bottles) as one of the most serious global pollution problems in terms of disposal, energy consumption to produce, heat release during the manufacturing process, chemical poisoning of fish, sea life, and wildlife, and a few other environmental problems, including breaking down before use and chemically contaminating the contents of the container. (it's mostly about whose ox is getting Gored at the moment.)IMHO
here's an interesting article on seasonal hurrican predictions...

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/broward/story/320606.html
Hey Bonedog, how are things in Jersey?
hey,Bone,how was your Thanksgiving?

Hey NewX, that's a cool avatar picture.
hey bone, NEwxguy...
Hey Guys. Thanksgiving was good for the family and I.

Weather is rainy here. Temps are on the rise though and LOL our high temps will be around midnight LOL go figure.

Hey,Lake,Thanks flaboy
Yeh,bone,going to be crazy temps tonight.
Hey Lake.

I got your mail. Kinda crazy here at work right now so I havent really looked at the long range forcasts or models. Yesterday I peeked at them and it looks like very cold air will be around the first week of december then moderate a little around 8-10th then another blast. That was from yesterdays models so i dont know if it has changed.

Should be a ride for all of us though. Might be a potential system in the same time frame that could make it a little slippery in the NE
Looks like December is going to be a rollercoaster ride.
hey Bone, I guess that being in the east, we're gonna have whatever is to the west of us in the near future, as far as weather is concerned.
There was a mention of 1965 and 1995 as being the only other 2 years in the NWS statement, concerning the airmass that is predicted to engulf the Great Lakes region, Does anyone know of any storms on record from those years (in the month of December) that would be a possible model for this year?
yup eventually fla
Temperatures during December were rarely extremely cold (only a couple daily records were broken), but were consistently colder than normal throughout the month. In Wilkes-Barre, PA, for instance, there were only six days during the month that averaged warmer than normal and only one day that was more than 5 degrees warmer than normal. The average temperature across the twelve states which comprise the Northeast averaged 3.6 degrees colder than the monthly normal. The smallest departures (less than 3 degrees) were noted in New England, with the state of Massachusetts reporting a monthly temperature departure of -2.4 degrees. The largest departures were recorded in the southern portion of the region, including a departure of -4.6 degrees for Delaware. Overall, it was the Northeast's 20th coldest December in the last 101 years.
Snowfall across the Northeast states ranged from near to well above normal during December. Monthly snowfall totals in the Baltimore-Washington area totalled between 2 and 3 inches, while Buffalo, NY was buried by 61.2 inches. This snowfall total for Buffalo was 37.4 inches greater than their long-term normal. Burlington, VT measured 44 inches of snow during December, which was nearly two feet (22.7 inches) more than they expect to receive during December. Syracuse, NY, however, leads the pack of major Northeast cities with a seasonal accumulation through the end of December of 79.3 inches (41.6 inches above normal for this point in the season). Some locations, such as Ithaca, NY, have already exceeded the total snowfall for the entire winter of 1994-95. You can view an enhanced table of monthly and seasonal snowfall totals for many location in the Northeast.

Early Season Snow
Cold air pouring eastward over Lake Ontario on the 7th produced very heavy snow bands with rates of up to 4 inches per hour. Snowfall totals include over 24 inches in parts of Lewis County; 20 inches in Highmarket; 36 inches in Redfield (Oswego County); over 12 inches south of Watertown and at the Stillwater Reservoir; and about 6 inches in the northern and western Adirondacks
12z CMC continues tropical/subtropical development.
interesting statistics
531. 882MB
What is the cmc developing eaglesrock?
yup that was for the winter of 1995 looking up 65 now
The CMC develops a 1004 mb low in the central Atlantic about 5 days out.
wow, bone... I better get another shovel...
havent found an7ything about 1965 guess it was comprable to 95 *shrugs*
LOL Lake if you dont own one up there cookoo
The scenerio is that two seperate ridges are developing, one in N.Siberia and another over the Yukon. These will serve to filter cold air form the arctic circle into the central regions of US and Canada, which will in turn set up a trof above the Great Lakes...all summing up to lots of cold air throughout the nation and plenty of lake effect opportunities around the unfrozen lakes...
Am I following this right?
534. LakeShadow 7:14 PM GMT on November 26, 2007
wow, bone... I better get another shovel...

How many do you need?
536. Bonedog 7:19 PM GMT on November 26, 2007
LOL Lake if you dont own one up there cookoo


I keep breaking it!
539. LakeShadow 7:21 PM GMT on November 26, 2007
536. Bonedog 7:19 PM GMT on November 26, 2007
LOL Lake if you dont own one up there cookoo

I keep breaking it!

snowblower!!!
NEwxguy, one for me and another for a helper!
I keep breaking it!

Time to buy a snow blower then LOL
snowblowers consume energy thats wasteful and I could use the exercise and fresh air. I'll shovel 7 feet...Its the best workout all winter!
Lake,sounds good,but the problem is finding a helper
Lake you are correct about the pattern. Siberian Express looks to be pulling out of the station in December.
Its either a snowblower for me or a heart attack LOL I choose my nice big snow blower
Use to shovel,but it got too much for me,and now I can help my elderly neighbor without dropping from a heart attack,but you are right about good excercise.
good afternoon 2 all
539. LakeShadow 2:21 PM EST on November 26, 2007
536. Bonedog 7:19 PM GMT on November 26, 2007
LOL Lake if you dont own one up there cookoo

I keep breaking it!


May I suggest getting another operator for the new shovel. It sounds like you are too enthusiastic. Hmmmm
dont get me wrong anything under 6 inches and I use the shovel but for the big snowfalls the snowblower gets fired up
See, the point of exercise is to condition the heart so it wont attack you when you have to shovel. Thus shoveling snow (rather that food into my mouth) is actually preventing me from having a heart attack.
:o)
*knocks on wood*
If my driveway were any bigger..I would get a snowblower. its only 25ft... really not much to shovel at all. Its when the plow goes by and damms up the end of your driveway...man I hate that!
LOL Lake I get ya.
Hey Bone, I got sent from a town 100 mi S of Tampa to Great Lakes, Illinois for boot camp. Talk about snow. We had every type of shovel on the base in use plus metal dustpans with broom handles stuck in them going 24/7. And the wind off of the Great Lakes. Thought I was gonna die! But I didn't.
Oh yea the lovely plow driver.

Found a great solution to him... bottle of Johny at the first storm. After that its my neighbors problem :) *evil grin*
LOL Fla yea winds and snows off the Lakes can be brutal
555. Bonedog 2:39 PM EST on November 26, 2007
Oh yea the lovely plow driver.

Found a great solution to him... bottle of Johny at the first storm. After that its my neighbors problem :) *evil grin*


Yes, I can see where it would be, especially if he was sampling it while plowing snow.lol
LOL Fla
good tip, bone thanks! :0)
Yes, I can see where it would be, especially if he was sampling it while plowing snow.lol
I think they already have "sampled" stuff anyways. LOL!
556. Bonedog 2:39 PM EST on November 26, 2007
LOL Fla yea winds and snows off the Lakes can be brutal


I think that was the first real snow I'd ever seen. (All we had was a frost now and then for the first 17 years of my life, then wow.)
your welcome Lake.

saves me many headaches during the winter season.
probably does something for plow-guy's headaches, too!
Yeah, and it's cold out there on them there roads, too.
yea a real good snow storm will surprise most folks. Heck it surprises folks that live in the snow regions. Its amazing that at the first sign of a flake on the road people seem to turn their brains off. Well at least more then usual.

I am convinced that there is a secret society of bad winter drivers that only come out on the roads when they are snow or ice covered. And for some odd reason they target the route I take to and from work LOL
Bone, we use to get them in Orlando in the summertime. We'd go for a week or so without rain and the oill, etc. would build up on the roads and the get a little shower and people would go ice skating in their cars. It kept the fire/rescue busy from time to time. The one thing that got me was the black ice. It spun me around a few times in the Norfolk Va area in the wintertime.
where is masters new blog?
I do not know if you read eaglesrock's comments, but the CMC has continued to show some subtropical/tropical storm formation occuring in the Central Atlantic for the past four or five runs, I believe. I am fully aware of the fact that the CMC model has been very aggressive this season forming systems, but it should be made noteworthy that this has been a continuous output by the model for over the past 24 hours. I will be watching this area since we all know storms have formed outside hurricane season, which ends Friday.
That first snowfall the drivers are absolute MORONS!!! There's just no explaining some of the drivers out there. I love the SUV drivers that think they can drive fast on ice...Driving by a spun-out SUV always puts a little song in my heart!
I asked earlier if any of the other models supported this forecast. Does anyone remember seeing a storm on another model?
no just the CMC spins something up. Once againt he lovely CMC makes a storm out of a thunderstorm ;)

so true Lake. I smile as well :) Yes I know Im evil :>

Dad always taught me...

"Its four wheel drive NOT four wheel stop!"
Thats a whole lotta rain falling on a very dry SE... any floods or anything happening there? no flood warnings posted...
Taking a look at the other major models, they all do show some disturbance in the general vicinity of where the CMC shows a weak subtropical/tropical storm developing. I would not say there is model support, but it does show that there is a good chance there will be some disturbed weather developing in the Central Atlantic during the weekend.
wind shear is 40+ knots throughout the are with pockets of 60knts and shear is forcatsed to increase.

Dont think it will be anything more then an area of Lower pressure with an atendant trough maybe.
By the way, saying the CMC has been "agressive" qualifies you as a master of understatement.lol
cch which other models? I dont see any haveing anything in the catl at all.
The best is driving around in a storm that hits later at night and there is nobody on the roads... Thats some fun driving. I fishtail all the way home! Wheeeeeeee!
Thanks cchs, I was too lazy to check them out myself.
Hey Bonedog, if you take a look at the GFS, UKMET and NOGAPS, it would appear as if they do hint at some small area of vorticity in this area. Do you see what I am seeing in these models? I use the FSU model page.
LOL Lake. Yea I too have been known to ralley drive the backroads by me on a winters night ;)
no cch I dont see it in the other models. I do see a lowering of the high pressure over that area but no cyclonic development.
so you are the people I see the car tracks in the morning making figure 8s.
Lake, I got broke of that "fun" by a large patch of black ice and a narrow road with a canal on each side of it. Once I stopped sliding backwards and got turned around again, I declined a repeat performance.
No figure 8's NE but alot of four line tracks through turns ;)

I amaze folks with my drifting capabilities ;)
yea Fla I bet it did :o
Don't know if this has shown up here yet or not.

Link

Dr Mann (of AGW fame), has created a new model to "predict" the past's undercount for huricanes.

I assume this was needed so the future seasons can be accurately listed as "worst since the 1800's".
Good Afternoon,

The local weather peeps are not talking about anything exciting in the next week.....

000
FXUS62 KMLB 262000
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EST MON NOV 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...

NEAR RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTN UNDER DEEP S/SW FLOW AND SUFFICIENT
HEATING. SLUG OF MOISTURE IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SO
COULD SEE ISOLD SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS
LIFTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS.

COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING EAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. BUT LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND UPPER JET WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES CENT FL
SO EXPECT CONVECTION ALONG FRONT TO WEAKEN ESP AFTER SUNSET.
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS AROUND
DAYBREAK WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT.

TUE...BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL OVER CENT FL WITH SOME
COOLER TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS BUT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING MOST AREAS DESPITE MORE CLOUDS THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS
TODAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR SHOWERS MAINLY IN
THE AFTN FOCUSED ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED DURING PEAK
HEATING.

TUE NIGHT-THU...ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY
AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA
RESULTS IN A LOW POP FORECAST THIS TIME PERIOD. FLOW VEERS FROM
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY WED MORNING AND STAYS ONSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. STABLE AND CAPPED MARINE AIR MASS PRODUCES FEW SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES AS MARINE STRATOCU COMES ASHORE AND PUSHES INLAND.
CHANCES OF LATE NIGHT COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOWERS APPEAR LOW WITH
WIND SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. LATE NIGHT FOG
OVER THE NORTHERN AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
AS MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING PATCHES OF FOG FROM SANFORD WESTWARD
THU MORNING.

FRI-WEEKEND-MON...LATEST ECMWF AND GFS TELL SIMILAR STORY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF FLORIDA BEING THE DOMINATE WEATHER
FEATURE. ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MON WILL BRING A
STABLE MARINE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND LOW...LESS THAN 20
PERCENT POP...EACH DAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LATE NIGHT COASTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOWER OR A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLE ALONG THE COAST FROM
MARINE STRATOCU COMING ASHORE. FEEL THAT THESE EVENTS ARE MORE
SUITED TO BE HANDLED ON THE "TAC MET" OR SHORT TERM FORECASTER`S
SIDE EACH DAY THEREFORE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST.



The area in the very western Caribbean looks a little spunky. Wouldnt surprise me if something there could grow and ride up the stationary front.........
looks like the UK will be dealing with the Ohio Low by the weekend. The OPC charts are showing it as hurricane force on the 30th heading to the UK so figure Saturday or Sunday for them.
yeah, fla, its much more fun when you know the roads are icy, rather than when you get surprised by a nice big patch of black ice... Thats dangerous stuff!!!
wow the AO (artic occilation) is forcasted to bottom out first week of december to a -4 or lower. Haven't seen a number that low in any of the records.



590. LakeShadow 3:36 PM EST on November 26, 2007
yeah, fla, its much more fun when you know the roads are icy, rather than when you get surprised by a nice big patch of black ice... Thats dangerous stuff!!!

Now if you give me a dirt road, no traffic and a strong pickem up truck, we can have a little fun. lol
no canals on either side of the road, either, LOL
You've got the picture.


postive phase left
negative phase right
bonedog,what doesn that artic oscillation number mean.
the more negative the number the colder the eastern US gets is what it boils down too
Don't want to hear that,but I was expecting a cold December so I'm ready.
now factor the plunging AO combined with the negative NAO and positive PNA during a moderate La Nina...

well you get the picture.. cold stormy winter for the eastern US
The V.P. has a Bad B.P. ,so keep it on the Q.T.!

AP: Cheney Story Link
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 40W....

There could not be a better day for marine activities over the Western Atlantic. As a cold front moves over the Central Atlantic, a 1034 mb ridge has built-in over the entire Southwest North Atlantic providing moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow from 55W to the East Coast. The wind flow south of ridge is also advecting scattered patches of low-level cloudiness with embedded showers over the area. Meanwhile, seas will remain modest with swells near 10ft. However, special caution should be advise near Atlantic coasts of Southern Cuba and Hispaniola where swells reach 15-20 ft due to pile-up of sea water.

by W456
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

The most active weather in the Caribbean lies in the Western portion where scattered moderate to strong convection lies from 10N-21N between 80W over Central America. This area continues to lie in a favorable jet entrance region upstream from an upper ridge axis extending northeastward from the Western Tip of Cuba to the Gulf of Venezuela.

It has been a real wet and windy day for the Eastern Caribbean all thanks to a high pressure north of the region. The high pressure ridge north of our region continues to produce fresh to occasionally strong northeast winds over the Eastern Caribbean. This flow is also advecting patches of cloudiness and showers over the islands, making for a wet and windy day. Small craft advisory remains in effect for waters across the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico/Virgin Isles due unfavorable marine conditions. QuikSCAT is working again and shows much Caribbean covered in near gale force winds. These winds are pushing 15-20 ft seas over the Southwest Caribbean especially along the Colombia Coast and under shower activity.

by W456
569. LakeShadow 2:58 PM EST on November 26, 2007
That first snowfall the drivers are absolute MORONS!!! There's just no explaining some of the drivers out there. I love the SUV drivers that think they can drive fast on ice...Driving by a spun-out SUV always puts a little song in my heart
!572. Bonedog 3:02 PM EST on November 26, 2007
so true Lake. I smile as well :) Yes I know Im evil :>
Dad always taught me...
"Its four wheel drive NOT four wheel stop!"
585. Bonedog 3:20 PM EST on November 26, 2007
No figure 8's NE but alot of four line tracks through turns ;)
I amaze folks with my drifting capabilities ;)


LOL You northerners have no idea what it's like in a college town when we get the first VA snow of the year. My Dad who was from Canada use to get great glee in inviting Canadian folks new to the area over to watch them get stuck in our 1/4 mile lane. Temps around here rarely go below 20F which means snow is "wetter" than northern snows and packs down creating a situation similar to attempting to drive on wet ice. A little experience with our twisty hilly lane tended to wipe away smug looks and haughty comments on school closings. And then you have all the true southerners who've never even seen the white stuff before. Makes for a few chuckles if you don't have to be somewhere on time. Otherwise driving can be as hazardous to your heart as shoveling snow.

I blame some of the trouble to over-marketing by SUV companies and the advent of all weather tires. "Back in the day" only 4x4s were trucks or Jeeps and you either had to buy a separate set of snow tires or put on a set of chains. Tended to naturally select some of the folks out on the road nowadays out of the driving pool. Four wheel drive and modern tires can make you overconfident real quick. One of the best pieces of wisdom I've received was from an old timer after I bought my first 4x4 truck. "Son you're gonna love that truck but just remember 4 wheel drive doesn't mean you wouldn't get stuck. Just means you'll get stuck a lot worse in a lot worse places." Truer words were never spoken.
Sorry about that ;)
Son you're gonna love that truck but just remember 4 wheel drive doesn't mean you wouldn't get stuck. Just means you'll get stuck a lot worse in a lot worse places." Truer words were never spoken.

Very Very very True
GULF OF MEXICO....

A cold front goes from a low pressure area over West Virginia near 35N/88W southward to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (near Tabasco Sate). The cold front lies under strong diffluent flow between the associated upper trough and the upper ridge over the Caribbean resulting in moderate to strong showers along the front north of 20N. As the front continues to advance eastward it will interact with showers over the Western Caribbean to create a brief deluge over upper Central America. Meanwhile, debris moisture is spreading up out of the Caribbean across the Southeast Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. Further west, parts of Texas and Louisiana are drying out due to dry air advection behind the front. This will probably only be short-lived as satellite imagery shows more clouds moving in from the west.


by W456

Storm over the Northeast US

Extended North Hemisphere (Update ~30 minutes)
Visible Image
Click to Enlarge
Link
Patrap, I'll see you and raise you Link

Warning do not attempt without fairly hot computer and a good net link. File is huge.
LOL Shen! Sooo true!
Storm system over Russia. Infrared images are often difficult to interpret due to cold air being recorded as the same temperature as the cloud. Visible imagery is also limited to a few hours at this latitude this close to the winter solstice



ShenValleyFlyFish,

thanks alot for the link
456 stop it! You're making me cold just looking at those images. LOL
:-)
"Arctic Sea, Polar Ice Caps and Climate Change" on C-SPAN 2 right now
Vostok,Antartica
Current Conditions Link
456 you are welcome although I realy can't take a lot of credit. Someone else posted it earlier in the season and I bookmarked it. Here is link to University of Washington (state) Dpt of Atmospheric Sciences home page. Lots of stuff I haven't taken time to look at. Link
616. Patrap 6:06 PM EST on November 26, 2007
Vostok,Antartica
Current Conditions


At least they don't have to deal with wild temperature swings this week.
The Fujiwhara effect or Fujiwhara interaction is a type of interaction between two nearby cyclonic vortices, causing them to appear to "orbit" each other.
When the cyclones approach each other, their centers will begin orbiting cyclonically about a point between the two systems. The two vortices will be attracted to each other, and eventually spiral into the center point and merge. When the two vortices are of unequal size, the larger vortex will tend to dominate the interaction, and the smaller vortex will orbit around it.

The effect is often mentioned in relation to the motion of tropical cyclones, although the final merging of the two storms is uncommon. The effect becomes pronounced in these storms when they approach within about 1450 km (900 miles) of each other and are at tropical storm strength or stronger.

Lando weakens; Mina leaves 8 dead
MANILA, Philippines (UPDATE) Tropical storm "Lando" (international codename: Hagibis) weakened as it moved closer to northwest Palawan and Mindoro Island on Monday afternoon, after reentering the country's area of responsibility, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said.

At 4 p.m., the eye of "Lando," which packs maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometers per hour near the center with gusts of up to 90 kilometers per hour, was spotted 300 kilometers west northwest of Puerto Princesa City.

Moving east northeast at 15 kilometers per hour, "Lando" was forecast to be at 140 kilometers west northwest of Coron, Palawan on Tuesday afternoon, 60 kilometers north of Alabat, Quezon on Wednesday afternoon, and 210 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora by Thursday afternoon.

Public storm signal number 2 (60-100 kilometers per hour winds) has been raised in northern Palawan and the Calamian Group of Islands while signal number 1 (30-60 kilometers per hour winds) was raised in the Mindoro provinces, Romblon, Lubang Island, Cuyo Island, and the rest of Palawan.

Meanwhile, typhoon "Mina" (international codename: Mitag) has weakened into a tropical storm as it blew away from the Luzon mainland after passing over the northeastern provinces, PAGASA said.

At 4 p.m., the eye of "Mina," which packs maximum sustained winds of 110 kilometers per hour near the center with gusts of up to 140 kilometers per hour, was located 100 kilometers north of Laoag City.

"Mina" left eight people dead, two others missing, and forced 141,863 people to evacuation centers in the Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Bicol, where it was first forecast to make landfall.

The storm made landfall in Palanan town, Isabela province at 9 p.m. Sunday. "Mina" pulled "Lando" back to the country in a weather phenomenon known as the "Fujiwara effect."

PAGASA Director Prisco Nilo explained that under the "Fujiwara effect," a strong storm influences the movement of a relatively weaker storm.

"Mina" was forecast to be at 330 kilometers northeast of Basco, Batanes by Tuesday afternoon on its way to Okinawa, Japan.

Public Storm Signal number 3 (100-185 kilometers per hour winds) was raised in Cagayan, Kalinga, Apayao, Abra, Ilocos Norte and the Babuyan and Batanes Islands.

Signal number 2 was raised in Isabela, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Benguet, La Union, and Ilocos Sur, while signal number 1 was raised in Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Tarlac, and Pangasinan.

Mina affects close to 400,000
MANILA, Philippines -- Tropical storm "Mina" (international codename: Mitag) affected close to 400,000 people, mostly due to floods, sending 231,388 of them to evacuation centers throughout Luzon, the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) said Monday evening.

In its 6 p.m. report, the NDCC said the death toll remained at eight people, mostly from drowning, with four missing, including two Philippine Air Force (PAF) pilots who failed to return to base in Puerto Princesa City Monday moon, after a search and security patrol mission over the Kalayaan Islands in the disputed Spratlys chain.

The two pilots were identified as Captains Bonifacio Soriano and Gavino Mercado. PAF chief Lieutenant General Horacio Tolentino Jr., said the Philippine Navy and the United States Pacific Command would be asked to help look for the missing airmen.

Mina blew away from the Luzon mainland Monday afternoon after pounding the northeastern provinces. At the same time, tropical storm "Lando" (international codename: Hagibis) reentered the country and was forecast to make landfall in northwest Palawan Tuesday evening.

President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has ordered a massive "preemptive evacuation" of residents at risk from floods, landslides, and storm surges.

Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. who chairs the NDCC, said the preparations have paid off.

"We cannot change the wrath of nature, but because of our preparations, we have mitigated or buffered the impact [of the storms]," Teodoro told a news conference at NDCC headquarters in Camp Aguinaldo.

"With the return of 'Lando,' and the expected development of 'Nonoy,' we are ready, your government is ready, on orders of the President," Teodoro said, as he appealed to the public to "continue to be prepared and vigilant while these storms are here."

"Nonoy" is a brewing tropical depression over the Pacific Ocean that is forecast to merge with Lando when it exits to the Philippine Sea via Camarines Norte province on Thursday.

The merged storms are forecast to bring rains to the eastern seaboard, even is they are not expected to make landfall on the way to southern Japan.

As of 6 p.m., the NDCC said 88,317 families or 399,033 persons in 827 villages were affected by floods. Of these, 50,571 families or 231,388 individuals were housed in 642 evacuation centers.

The Bicol Region, which Mina was originally forecast to hit until it veered northwards, had the most number of evacuees at 227,277.

There were 3,351 evacuees in the Cagayan Valley Region, which was directly hit by the storm, and 750 others in Central Luzon and Aurora province.

Cheers AussieStorm
Thanks for posting the impressive picture of the storm over Russia, 456. That lil beast pounded Finland yesterday and raised the wish in me to go hibernating *lol* Fortunately it was Sunday so I didn't have to go out.
Hey Pat, I was looking at the Vostok current conditions and that's the first time I ever saw a ceiling altitude that was that high. You're still the King of the Links.
Me shortly after the Borg made me..The Hive Linkmaster.

You got it bro!
Hey pat, after looking at that photo, I'm glad the Borg redid your nose.
Pat, the astrological weather on the Antarctica conditions page is the most interesting: no moon rise no moon set. / 24 hr. daylight./ 0 sec. 0 minutes change for tomorrow.
Hey pat, after looking at that photo, I'm glad the Borg redid your nose
yeah, wow! nice nosejob, Pat!
:o)
GFS has icy storm for new york yes thats right i siad new york

Hey Taz. Hope you're doin' fine.
627. Tazmanian 7:28 PM EST on November 26, 2007
GFS has icy storm for new york yes thats right i siad new york


Get a Rope!
Informative post AussieStorm thanks
626. LakeShadow 7:17 PM EST on November 26, 2007
Hey pat, after looking at that photo, I'm glad the Borg redid your nose
yeah, wow! nice nosejob, Pat!
:o)


Hey LakeS, I was tryin' to imply that the photo was the before photo, not the current Pat. (I'll bet Patrick Stewart hates that photo.)
Great save flaboy. As if. lol
632. ShenValleyFlyFish 8:10 PM EST on November 26, 2007
Great save flaboy. As if. lol


I can get in plenty of trouble on my own without any help from friends and neighbors. When I saw the second post, I knew I'd done it again. LOL
Unusually bad red tide here in E Cent Fl. I notice there is no coverage of it The establish is afraid it will scare the tourist away. It is unbearable on the beach in PT Canerveral.
By the way Shen, that's an interesting post on your site. I made a comment recently about settling in Orlando to have a bunch of land between me and any landfall sites. The eye of Donna went over my home when it made landfall about where Charlie did many years later. I made a point of being inland when Charlie hit.
I live in Victoria BC.. where is always nice and warm.. we seldom see snow, and when we do its normally late Decemeber or early January. Well its snowing and its cold and it not even December yet... and I blame it all on LakeShadow, he was thinking bad thoughts again about snow.


Cancun
1 month 8 days 16 hours 18 minutes
34. leftovers 8:21 PM EST on November 26, 2007 Unusually bad red tide here in E Cent Fl. I notice there is no coverage of it The establish is afraid it will scare the tourist away. It is unbearable on the beach in PT Canerveral.

It seems like there oughta be a way to get the stinging jellyfish to eat the red tide and die while turning the combination into something beneficial.
Thank you for the update Dr.Masters!
Hi Orca, good to see ya. Wasn't Shen the one that said Get a Rope when Taz mentioned an ice storm. That was a bad thought.lol
Now I have to remember what that formula was for how much snow you get if its starts and lasts all day on the ground.. and when the last moon was etc etc....

I really should book mark stuff

Hope its better where you are Flaboy,,, hmmm thats right.. lets find a rope :)
I really should book mark stuff

Ain't no need rushin' into anything.

When did you change your avatar?
Hope its better where you are Flaboy,,, hmmm thats right.. lets find a rope :)

Yeah, we can use it to hang in there until it goes away.lol
I changed it to my favorite team. I noticed a lot of people use football ones, so I figured.. why not. That way anything stupid I say can't be held against all Canadians :)
Not to mention this way I cannot be confused with a Habs or Leafs fan, not that there is much of a diff between the two.
Orca, was the movie The Guardian filmed up your way?
Looks like Quikscat isnt working as good anymore...probably getting close to failing completely...im afraid QS may not be available for next year.
639. flaboyinga 8:46 PM EST on November 26, 2007 Hi Orca, good to see ya. Wasn't Shen the one that said Get a Rope when Taz mentioned an ice storm. That was a bad thought.lol

Who was it said "I can get in enough trouble without any help"? Thought Taz was making reference to old Pecan-ti-sauce add so attempted to provide straight man's line. You had to be there.
645. extreme236 9:24 PM EST on November 26, 2007
Looks like Quikscat isnt working as good anymore...probably getting close to failing completely...im afraid QS may not be available for next year.


How bad do you think that will hurt the typhoon prediction effort in the SW Pacific?
646. ShenValleyFlyFish 9:27 PM EST on November 26, 2007
639. flaboyinga 8:46 PM EST on November 26, 2007 Hi Orca, good to see ya. Wasn't Shen the one that said Get a Rope when Taz mentioned an ice storm. That was a bad thought.lol

Who was it said "I can get in enough trouble without any help"? Thought Taz was making reference to old Pecan-ti-sauce add so attempted to provide straight man's line. You had to be there.


Round and round we go, and where we stop,that's where we get buried. (I guess) Cause we keep diggin' the hole deeper as we go.LOL
From your mouth to God's ear flaboy.
Shen, He's gonna have me on the carpet for a long time when He reads my transcript back to me. And I'll deserve every bit of it, too.
Pray I'm not the one in line ahead of you Flaboy. You're gonna have a long wait.
Shen is the child in your avatar one of your family members, or one of "your kids"?
The reason for the question is your site didn't say what age group you worked with and my daughter who is a teacher always has "her kids" she works with during the year, but then she has her family.
My grandson. They would really toss me overboard if I posted a picture of one of the "kids". Confidentiality and all that.
Work at state Children's Psych Hospital. Ages 4-12 unit. As I tell the kids at work. "I could tell you more but then I'd have to kill you." lol
I hope he picks up your guitar and amazes you someday. I told my son I always prayed for the talent to play one, and God gave it to me, too. I just had to wait for my son to deliver it to us.(I figured you might use music as part of the program and his back was turned to the camera.) I put my fire station up because I spent a lot of time and effort building the dept and the building up from almost nothing.
Yea we can only hope that the little bit of good we manage to do will shorten our time on the mat.
The price is already paid. But people aren't throw away items, so we're both in the rescue business. You participate one way and I participate in another way. That way we get to put something back for what we received.
Well I think it's time to try for a little shut eye. Fun chatting with you Flaboy. Goodnight all.
Have a good night. Enjoyed it too. Didn't mean to step on any toes earlier. Later.
Truely from your mouth to God's ear. You couldn't have said it better if you'd a pulpit and a month of Sundays.
T -MINUS 91 HRS 12 MINS GMT REMAIN OF 2007 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
Here is an article from the New Orleans Times-Picayune on an LSU prof assisting Bangledesh's efforts 2 weeks ago.

http://blog.nola.com/times-picayune/2007/11/by_mark_schleifstein_staff_wri.html
A good night and a better tomorrow to one and all.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 27Nov)
==========================================
An area of convection (95W) near 13.2N 137.7E or 225 NM north of Yap Island. Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a slowly consolidating area of deep convection over a persistent low level circulation center. SSMIS image depicted persistent convective banding over the western semi circle supporting the currect position of the low level circulation center. Surface Observations from Yap indicates sustained northwesterly winds at 12-15 knots and a surface low pressure near 1001.8 mb with noteworthy 24 hours pressure falls of about 3 mb.

Overall, the environment is favorable with a developing anticyclone north of the center and weak vertical wind shear. Maximum sustained winds near the center is 18-22 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1000 mb. Based on improved organization, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to GOOD.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert is now in effect. This alert may be re-issued, canceled, or upgraded to a warning by 0530z 28Nov.
Morning Everyone
uggg guess its a bad day for me today :/

look at my post number and the time :(

I hate it when that happens
It's the devil......lol

G'mornin Bone
Good morning, Bonedog.

I have an update on the Sunday/Monday storm in my blog.

Someone will be getting snow...lol
Morning Baja

Morning Sullivan, I will go check it out.
breaking news.. sean taylor died a few minutes ago in miami
How sad :(
good job sullivan
It is Baja
Found another great weather site. Has alot of information, great models page, advanced upper air data, and a few other goodies

NexLab

also has storm chasing stuff.
676. IKE
Lead singer for Quiet Riot...Kevin DuBrow...found dead Sunday.

Link

5.41 inches of rain yesterday...here in Defuniak Springs,Fl.
Thanks Bonedog!

Amazing that the GFS has been rather consistant with this storm thus far.

Now, as we all know, when the storm is in the 4-6 day period is when the GFS starts getting all crazy before finally settling on a soultion once the storm is within 84hrs.

This is where the fun begins.
Stormchasing college..now THAT would be fun
It should be illegal to have to be up THIS early *laffs* I have to leave for work in a few and the sun's not even up yet :))
Mornin Ike....thought about you watching the line come through nite before last...site I go to in niceville had 3 inches yesterday morning. We didn't get that much over here
not alot of rain here, maybe an inch, but got really windy last night. My guage registered a few gusts to 40 mph and one gust, not really sure about, went to 57mph.

Oh and we hit the high temp at 4am and its currently on its way down.
I like that site because it has alot of information aranged really well. Basically one of those grab it quick sites.

Yea sullivan a few models have this storm doing like you said and transfering energy. I have seen the GFS, NAM, NGP all do it on the last few runs. I am waiting a little bit longer before I do my synopsis. My schedual right now is very hectic between work and home, I haven't really had time to sit down with all the information and begin to decypher it all.

But will say whatever happens it will be a wild ride the first week of December for much of the Nation.
683. IKE
You should see my driveway...ugh!

Almost 8 inches of rain here this month. Should be it for November. Maybe some arctic air heading into the SE USA in about a week.
uh ok umm great the site is screwing up my posts now :/

6:52 gets posted before 6:49.... grrreeeaattt
685. IKE
And good morning to everyone.
Y'all have a good one today.....off to work
morning IKE
Yeah, a few of my posts have drifted off into cyberspace as of late...
oh well guess I will just ctrl C everything
sullivan whats your take on the long term synoptic pattern developing?

Red tide is bad over here in E Cent. Fl. Still nothing on the news about it. The world is a scam. Hopefully we get some cold weather and quick to kill this algae.
LSU professor helped lessen disaster in Bangladesh

By Mark Schleifstein
Staff writer
Link
693. polyu
Please join this forum
http://centralwx.com/index.php
it is amaxing over 750 posts in less then a month
leftovers. Been bad for quite sometime from what i hear from down there. Seems the last few years every time I come down there was a red tide for the whole time. I cant remeber when it has been this bad for this long
funny that as the sun rises today the temps are on their way down. Kinda makes your body go HUH?
Thanks Patrap I needed a reminder there are still some wonderful folks on Planet Earth.
Ivor van Heerden and Harry Shearer discuss surge, and wetland restoration.



Scientist to discuss storm damage effects
By MEGHA SATYANARAYANA
megha@sunherald.com





LONG BEACH --Post-Katrina destruction of Louisiana's waterways has rippled over to the Mississippi Coast, said author Ivor van Heerden, author of the highly publicized "The Storm - What Went Wrong and Why during Hurricane Katrina - the Inside Story from One Louisiana Scientist."

van Heerden will discuss the issue Thursday at this month's Issues Answers lecture series, which returns to the Gulf Park Campus of the University of Mississippi for the first time since Hurricane Katrina.

van Heerden is the deputy director of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center and previously led wetlands restoration projects for the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources.

"The return of Issues Answers to the Gulf Park campus represents yet another step in the recovery efforts of Southern Miss Gulf Coast," said Dr. Pat Joachim, associate provost for the University of Southern Mississippi Gulf Coast. "We are happy that, along with our partner the Sun Herald, we are able to return the series to our campus where the community can enjoy our comfortable, state-of-the-art auditorium."

In his lecture, van Heerden will talk about the destruction of the barrier islands and how they protect the Coast from strong surges. A little-known fact, he said, was that waves following the initial Katrina surge did much of the damage. And some of Mississippi's damage was a direct result of Louisiana's levee breach.

"Our futures are tied in that what we do in Louisiana will have an effect in Mississippi, and the opposite holds true," he said.

van Heerden is often credited with predicting the levee catastrophe in New Orleans months before Katrina and has publicly spoken against the Army Corps of Engineers and FEMA for their failures post-hurricane. In an interview with the science show "Nova" on Oct. 29, 2004, he predicted the water rise, flooding, and stranded people in New Orleans, should a Category 3 hurricane hit New Orleans. He has often said his warnings fell on deaf ears.

Now that the environmental damage of Katrina is starting to surface, van Heerden will also talk about scientists and their role in politics, especially in getting funding for coastal restoration and levees. Restoring the coastline, he said, is not just good for recreation, but for business as well. Petroleum shortages mean there is pressure to open the Gulf of Mexico, he said.

As global warming experts predict stronger hurricanes, the safe redevelopment of the Coast will draw more companies and better jobs, he said.

"Recovery of the economy to pre-Katrina levels means you have to prove it's safe," he said.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you go

Who: Ivor van Heerden, hurricane expert and professor at LSU.

What: Issues Answers lecture series. van Heerden will talk about how Mississippi's watershed has suffered because of Katrina's damage to Louisiana.

Where: USM Gulf Park in Long Beach AEC building.

When: 7 p.m. Thursday.
Good morning all:
Thanks to Riverbender too. You pointed it out in the middle of night after I went to bed.I was working back through and hit Patrap first so good on the both of you as old timers say.
Hi all,

Noticed the comments about Red Tide. Its bad here on Choctawhatchee Bay... we have hundreds of dead fish on the beach behind the house & floating in the bay. The smell is horrible, I think its the worst I have ever seen. Everyone is walking around sneezing, watery eyes, sore throat all Red Tide related.
Good morning, folks
Hey. How come the blog's eating my posts? Hope it didn't eat any of JFV's. Wish I could get an energy/enthusiasm transfusion from that young man, think I might be able to put it to good use.

Ach, vell. As my great grandparents would have said: "Ve are too soon oldt and to late schmardt."
Good morning Flood Did you come in late for work or did you actually have something to do this morning?
morning flood
Looking at the CMC makes me laugh... it shows a hurricane and a tropical storm in 6 days... somebody please tell it that it is almost December...



It can happen, but is very unlikely (especially two storms and at the same time)... Dr. Masters did also say that conditions could become more favorable in early December
hey everybody, I havent posted in awhile, go figure not much happening. I live on the north east coast of N.C. It seems like hurricane season is over, just then mother nature throws a suprise on you! I'm looking for some type of hybrid system to get going once we get the jetstream and an intense low off the southeast to hookup.
Michael at least we can all agree on the concisancy of the CMC to give us good laughs year round :o)

new definition:

CMC: Can Make Comedy
Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:40 PM EST on November 21, 2007

Almost a week and only 700 posts? Come on Jeff...crank us out some weather...its there somewhere!!!
Happy Tuesday. There is lots of weather out there. And its all heading my way. We're in for a bumpy December. NWS has me scared!
Morning Lake.

Looks like alot of us will be in afor a bumpy December
So what has become of the good Dr. Masters? Maybe he's just really thankful for the Hurricane hunters...wants to let the post linger on for a while.
I would expect some kind of insight on this polar vortex dropping south of the hudson bay event from him. its an anomoly to speak of, even if its not tropical...
Expect a new Entry shortly.
I think he will Lake. During the "off season" Doc sometimes will leave posts up for a week before updating.

Yea I looked at the latest charts and am seeing some very anomolous events taking shape.

1) AO forcasted to drop to -4 or lower which would be a first since record keeping began

2) NAO going +2 then almost the next day droping to -.5

3) PNA fluctuating between positive, neutral, negative then jumping +2 rapidly.

4) Continued moderate La Nina

5) Very Strong Ridge over Alaska (some models calling for 1032-1040mb

6) Moderatley Strong Low over Hudson Bay (996mb)

could be the setup for a major lake effect breakout within the larger problem of very much below normal temperatures for much of the Eastern US.
5) Very Strong Ridge over Alaska (some models calling for 1032-1040mb

That ridge will be the strongest of the winter, bringing 500mb heights of 5640m+ into our area, and temps 20 degrees above normal. It's also the sign of a pattern change developing over the northern hemisphere, because during La Nina Alaska never gets big ridges like that. Sure enough the GFS has a rapid turn-around and moves your cold air ball over the Hudson Bay west and into Alaska pushing the ridge out. Very interesting month of December ahead.
I know where Dr M is. The TROLLS have captured him and are holding him hostage till we take down our ignore lists. They just can't figure out why no one's responding to their demands.
yea Levi noticed that also. At the end of the model run it breaks the ridge down and has a polar low over Alaska in the 945 to 965mb range.

Going to be a flip flop pattern in the coming weeks. I am seeing a pattern shift and placement of winters past. The cold snowy ones that folks want to end quickly. Dont get me wrong there will be recpits from the cold but they will be short lived. Again this is model forcasts so we have to see if it does happen but looking back 3 or 4 weeks it does appear climotologically speaking we are in for a bad winter
Look at this.



I mean that's so bizarre to have all the above normal heights centered on the pole and everywhere else it's below normal. It's the complete reverse of what weather is lol.
Ha, ha, Shen!
Trolls, we demand you release Dr. M!!!

Hey I found a weather blog on our local news sight... It will be interesting to get the locals' perspectives of all this...

eventually I will lure them all to the wunderground!
It's also the sign of a pattern change developing over the northern hemisphere, because during La Nina Alaska never gets big ridges like that.

Interesting that you mention that; I noticed yesterday that the global circulation (as shown below on the Global Synoptic Dynamic Model) has been shifting away from a La Nina state (which it was in since mid-January this year), possibly indicating that it has peaked or will peak soon (the latest numbers yesterday showed continued cooling, past the strong threshold):



Stage 1 (La-Nina like) – the global relative AAM anomaly is negative. The negative anomaly is primarily due to easterly upper level wind anomalies that extend from the Eastern Hemisphere tropics to the Western Hemisphere mid-latitudes. A retracted Pacific Ocean jet stream is a key feature in the total field. Troughs are probable across the western USA with a ridge over the southeast. High impact weather is favored across the Plains.

Stage 2 – the global relative AAM tendency is positive. This means that negative AAM is being removed from the atmosphere by surface friction and mountains. At the same time, westerly wind anomalies are intensifying in equatorial regions of the Western Hemisphere. Fast Rossby wave dispersion events in both hemispheres are a coherent feature of this stage and Stage 4. A cold regime is probable across the central USA.

Stage 3 (El-Nino like) – the global relative AAM anomaly is positive. Westerly wind anomalies move into the Eastern Hemisphere, broaden in latitudinal extent and link up with deep westerly flow anomalies over the mid-latitude Western Hemisphere. An extended Pacific Ocean jet stream and southward shifted storm track is observed favoring high impact weather events along the USA west coast.

Stage 4 – the global relative AAM tendency is negative. Positive (westerly) AAM anomalies are being removed by surface friction in the Western Hemisphere mid-latitudes and through mountain torques across the Northern Hemisphere topography. The next phase of the oscillation (if there is one) is represented by easterly wind anomalies intensifying over equatorial regions of the Western Hemisphere. This stage has enhanced subtropical jets and closed lows in the subtropics favoring rainfall events over the southwestern USA.
Stage 3 (El-Nino like) – the global relative AAM anomaly is positive. Westerly wind anomalies move into the Eastern Hemisphere, broaden in latitudinal extent and link up with deep westerly flow anomalies over the mid-latitude Western Hemisphere. An extended Pacific Ocean jet stream and southward shifted storm track is observed favoring high impact weather events along the USA west coast.


Doesn't favor a ridge over Alaska, although that surprises me. During El Nino the Aleutian Low is very strong and provides constant southerly winds aloft into Alaska during the winter.
Morning all :~)

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving weekend!
Morning to everyone!

Just some thought to grays december forcast approaching in a few weeks.This december forcast in my personal opinion is pretty much useless as its impossible to know what atmospheric conditions will be in place 6 months from now.For all we know there is a chance that a significant nino will come about late in 2008 similar to the 92 or 93 season.Overall its pretty much entertainment for me but will read as iam been following them for years.

NOAA to me did a great job with there forcast as they predicted 13-17 named tropical cyclones and we ended up with 6 hurricanes as karen was upgraded via the ATCF file.They also called for 3-5 majors and we ended up with 2 in 07.

We'll see what happens! Adrian
Please shrink giant posts. Hard to read.
Thx.
Morning Storm and Adrian!
Morning Storm

Morning 23
Good to see you LS :~) You too Bone

All this winter/global weather talk is way out of my league, but makes for interesting reading and learning. Thanks y'all!
Lol used to the tropics eh SJ? :) Great to see ya!
Good morning all. Very sad day here in South Florida with the death of 24 year-old former Hurricane Sean Taylor. I feel terrible for the family, especially his 18-month old daughter who saw her dad get shot now without a father. God bless them.

On another note, I do not remember who recalled this from a previous blog from Dr. Masters, but it looks like he may be correct. All the forecast models show conditions becoming much more favorable in the Atlantic in early December, so I would not immediately discount the CMC model, but I do doubt the intensity of the system it forecasts. Taking a look at the other forecast models, they do show a tropical entity this weekend, so we may not yet be done with hurricane season just yet. Important to note is the fact that anything that would form this time of year would not be strong. Comments?
Morning again to all hope everyone had a great thanksgiving.
Glad to help Storm.

Winter Wx is my forte. The way you all teach me during hurricane season I get to give back in the winter and teach others.
Took a trip up to the NC mountains a couple of weeks ago, there was still a little color left. Finally got around to uploading some photos yesterday if anyone is interested...


More Photos...
Levi can you shrink your image in post 725 please? Try keeping the width to no more then 720.

Thanks
:0)
This image is self-explanatory....there isn't but a couple dots on the map with wind shear below 20 knots.

You know, weather knows no boundries. While it is doubtful that anything that does form in December will be strong, if anything forms at all, it is possible.
740. Bonedog 6:35 AM AKST on November 27, 2007 Hide this comment.
Levi can you shrink your image please? Try keeping the width to no more then 720.

Thanks
:0)


It's already automatically at 640 width bone...I don't know what you're seeing, but for me my images are automatically re-sized and the admin put that feature in. I just tried changing it manually and it's still the same size to me.
You too Levi!

Don't get me wrong, I love winter weather, just don't see enough of it down here! Hope to make another trip to the NC mountains with a storm approaching. Going to have to see when they start getting some real snow though.
I'm just learning on every front. They say it keeps the mind young.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

Shear is decreasing in that area, however, it is still high.
showing on my screen as 1024 x 819 LOL

guess my comp is acting up again
Hey SJ and Levi!

For those wondering theres very little chance of anything popping across the atlantic as fast upper level winds are in control across most if not all of the entire basin. Adrian
Just my thought, but I think Hurricane Season is shut off until 2008. If am wrong, wouldn't be the first time ;) I f I am right, it would :) lol.
gotta go, catch y'all later.
Bye Lake
Hey Adrian!! Nice to see you :)

Yeah it's highly unlikely anything will form. I never say never though, because in the weather there's never an exact 0% chance of anything happening or not happening. It's always 0.00000001% or greater lol.
ah new page LOL no stretch marks now LOL
Hey guys: Whats going on? Been away for a bit? Have you sprung Dr M yet?
NEW BLOG UP..finally lol.