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Giovanna hits Madagascar; major damage likely

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:07 PM GMT on February 14, 2012

Tropical Cyclone Giovanna powered ashore along the east coast of Madagascar as a destructive Category 3 storm with 125 - 130 mph winds at 22 UTC last night. Winds at the coastal city of Tamatave, 70 miles north-northeast of where the center came ashore, peaked at 52 mph, gusting to 71 mph. Giovanna is moving west across the island at 17 mph, and passed just south of the capital of Antananarivo as a Category 1 storm at 8 am local time Tuesday morning. The eyewall missed Antananarivo , and the peak winds in the city were 38 mph, gusting to 55 mph. Microwave satellite imagery from the Navy Research Lab in Monterrey showed that Giovanna had rainfall rates of up to one inch per hour at landfall, and it is likely that the storm dumped 5 - 10 inches of rain along much of its path. The heaviest rains fell on deforested mountain slopes that drain into some of the most densely populated regions on the island, so major flood damage is likely. Heavy wind and storm surge damage undoubtedly occurred where the core of the storm hit the island, as well.


Figure 1. Visible image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna over Madagascar, taken at 7:15 UTC Tuesday February 14, 2012. Seven hours previous to this time, Giovanna was a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds, but had probably weakened to a Category 1 storm by the time this picture was taken. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast
Passage over the rugged terrain of Madagascar has significantly weaken Giovanna, and the cyclone will move into the Mozambique Channel between Madagascar and Mozambique as a tropical storm later today. Latest computer model forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Giovanna may reintensify over water, and swing around and pass very close to the south tip of Madagascar early next week. Meanwhile, Madagascar must also keep an eye on Tropical Cyclone Thirteen, which is gathering strength over the waters to the east of the island, and is on a course that will bring it close to Madagascar this weekend.


Figure 2. Microwave satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna taken at 02:44 UTC Tuesday, February 14, 2012. The cyclone was still a well-organized Category 2 storm at this time, five hours after landfall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterrey.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr. Masters! Happy VD!
Madagascar's emergency service now says three people have died, but reports obviously aren't anywhere near complete. In fact, assessments are just underway along the coast, where there are reports of storm surge making its way several blocks inland.

Giovanna
Thank you for the update Dr. Masters. Here is hoping the damage was not too severe. It was surprising to observe the relatively low sustained winds at the reporting stations across Madagascar as the storm made landfall. Most locations like Antananarivo didn't even quite get sustained tropical storm conditions. The core of strongest winds must have been relatively small.
Thanks Jeff...
SH122012 - Tropical Cyclone (<64 kt) GIOVANNA

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)



Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE, FORMER GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 14 2012
================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Overland Depression, Former Giovanna (xxxx hPa) located at 19.3S 46.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 20.6S 43.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 21.8S 41.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 23.1S 39.6E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.8S 37.8E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================

Ex-giovanna is tracking globally west southwestward on the steering influence of the deep of low to mid-troposphere centered south of Réunion Island. It is forecast to keep on this track for the next three days but should progressively slow down in the direction a barometric col transiting in the south of the Mozambique channel. It is forecast to recurve southeastward on Saturday, and speed should remain slow, due to a weak steering influence in the mid-troposphere.

Numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for the track during the next 48 hours. Beyond the forecast tracks are spread out. Some numerical weather prediction models forecast a east to west track, towards the Mozambique coast, others like ECMWF forecast the south-eastward bending, more or less rapidly. The present forecast track of the RSMC is close to the ECMWF model. According to the last run of ECMWF, it is less rapid than the previous forecast track.

On this track, residual vortex should be back over sea in the Mozambique channel late Tuesday in the vicinity of Morondava. With a favorable atmospheric environment, a decreasing easterly shear as the system will move closer to an upper level ridge, a good low levels feeding on the both sides of the low, and warm sea surface temperature, system should regenerate rapidly over the channel. At the end of the forecast range, system should begin to undergo westerly upper level vertical wind shear and should weaken.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TD GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
SH132012 - Tropical Cyclone (<64 kt) THIRTEEN



Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
18:00 PM FST February 14 2012
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 13F (1005 hPa) located at 17.3S 161.9E is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has not changed much in the past 12 hours. Convection has slightly increased in the past 6 to 12 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA. Td13f lies under 250 HPA ridge axis in a low sheared environment.

Global models have yet to pick the system.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is low.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20112012
16:00 PM RET February 14 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10 (999 hPa) located at 13.9S 89.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 14.9S 85.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.4S 83.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.0S 79.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 16.8S 75.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
3.38" for the first half of February at my place. More coming
Haven't heard too much complaining around NOLA, but pretty bad according to drought monitor





Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #23
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
0:00 AM FST February 15 2012
===================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE VAVA'U AND HA'APAI GROUP


At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (987 hPa) located at 21.1S 175.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization remains same in past 12 hours. Convection has slightly decreased in last 6 hours. System lies just to the north of an upper ridge. Associated upper divergence and low level convergence are both moderate. Vertical shear is minimal. Sea surface temperature about 27 to 28C

Dvorak analysis based on 0.5 wrap on log10 spiral, yielding DT=2.5, PT=3.0 and MET=3.0, final Dvorak based on MET

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a west northwest movement with no further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 20.9S 177.1W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.4S 177.8W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 23.3S 178.3W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..
'Storm of the Century?' Try 'Storm of the Decade'. With climate change, today's '100-year floods' may happen every three to 20 years, according to new research.

Last August, Hurricane Irene spun through the Caribbean and parts of the eastern United States, leaving widespread wreckage in its wake. The Category 3 storm whipped up water levels, generating storm surges that swept over seawalls and flooded seaside and inland communities. Many hurricane analysts suggested, based on the wide extent of flooding, that Irene was a "100-year event": a storm that only comes around once in a century.

However, researchers from MIT and Princeton University have found that with climate change, such storms could make landfall far more frequently, causing powerful, devastating storm surges every three to 20 years. The group simulated tens of thousands of storms under different climate conditions, finding that today's "500-year floods" could, with climate change, occur once every 25 to 240 years. The researchers published their results in the current issue of
Nature Climate Change.

- - - - - - - - - -

To simulate present and future storm activity in the region, the researchers combined four climate models with a specific hurricane model. The combined models generated 45,000 synthetic storms within a 200-kilometer radius of Battery Park, at the southern tip of Manhattan.

- - - - - - - - - -

Today, a "100-year storm" means a surge flood of about two meters, on average, in New York. Roughly every 500 years, the region experiences towering, three-meter-high surge floods. Both scenarios, Lin notes, would easily top Manhattan’s seawalls, which stand 1.5 meters high.

But with added greenhouse gas emissions, the models found that a two-meter surge flood would instead occur once every three to 20 years; a three-meter flood would occur every 25 to 240 years.


Full article...
NWS Jackson, MS is ,as usual, the first WFO to post anything about severe t-storms.

‎"Ride The Storm" Commercial Extended Cut - 2012 Weather Underground Mitsubishi All-Wheel Control Lineup

18. MTWX
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
NWS Jackson, MS is ,as usual, the first WFO to post anything about severe t-storms.


SPC is talking even the possiblity of a strong tornado or two tomorrow too. SPC Day 2 Outlook
I know, but what i really want to see is the update this afternoon at 1630 or 1730 utc.
The rest of the WFOs do not seem to believe there will be anything overly strong
Since everything is going to hell in a hand bag, I'm going to purchase the following and not worry about debt since uncle Sam doesn't seem to care either and enjoy the last few months....




what exactly is that?
Quoting RitaEvac:
Since everything is going to hell in a hand bag, I'm going to purchase the following and not worry about debt since uncle Sam doesn't seem to care either and enjoy the last few months....




What an awesome looking car...
Quoting hydrus:
What an awesome looking car...


Best.Car.Ever.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Since everything is going to hell in a hand bag, I'm going to purchase the following and not worry about debt since uncle Sam doesn't seem to care either and enjoy the last few months....







Now thats what i'm talking about....:)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Haven't heard too much complaining around NOLA, but pretty bad according to drought monitor







i think its funny how when it says that i was in a severe drought, and now i am in abnormally dry range, the effects didnt change lol.
Has to do with Lakes, reservoirs, and other factors of the soil
Quoting RitaEvac:


Best.Car.Ever.
This is the best car I ever owned. 1967 Cutlass Supreme. 330 Jetfire engine. 2 speed Hydroglide tranny..320 hp off the showroom floor.
Quoting hydrus:
This is the best car I ever owned. 1967 Cutlass Supreme. 330 Jetfire engine. 2 speed Hydroglide tranny..320 hp off the showroom floor.


Best Engine, but not best looking
Quoting RitaEvac:
Haven't heard too much complaining around NOLA, but pretty bad according to drought monitor







Drought is getting bad here in C and N FL as well but relief is on the way later this week and this weekend. S FL however may only be left with just pop up storms.

">


Gotta LOVE THIS ONE!
31. MTWX
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I know, but what i really want to see is the update this afternoon at 1630 or 1730 utc.
The rest of the WFOs do not seem to believe there will be anything overly strong

Waiting on SPCs 1730 outlook myself... We could really do without another one of these for a while..
Link
Quoting RitaEvac:


Best Engine, but not best looking
True. But I bought her for $750.00 in 84. Which made her look pretty good..:)
Quoting hydrus:
True. But I bought her for $750.00 in 84. Which made her look pretty good..:)


Brother has owned a GTO for about 10 years now....SWEET roaring ride. He wins every car show he enters her in!
Quoting MTWX:

Waiting on SPCs 1730 outlook myself... We could really do without another one of these for a while..
Link


There won't anything close to that oubreak tomorrow but an isolated tornado or two (maybe strong tornado) can't be ruled out but nothing of the magnitude of the outbreak last year atleast not yet.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Brother has owned a GTO for about 10 years now....SWEET roaring ride. He wins every car show he enters her in!
Definitely one of my favorite muscle cars. They dont make them like they use to I tell ya.
36. MTWX
Quoting StormTracker2K:


There won't anything close to that oubreak tomorrow but an isolated tornado or two (maybe strong tornado) can't be ruled out but nothing of the magnitude of the outbreak last year atleast not yet.

I totally agree. I was just using this single tornado as an example (struck close to home). That's all it takes is one...
Quoting MTWX:

I was just using this single tornado as an example (struck close to home). That's all it takes is one...


This could be your primer for next month. March & April always seem to be the worst in the south in regards to large violent tornadoes.
One day I will get a car, when I can pay for insurance
Madagascar hit by cyclone Giovanna
"The government of Madagascar issued the first warnings on Monday afternoon - but residents say the intensity of the cyclone was not explained.
Town criers, who walk around the streets ringing a bell and shouting out information in the local Malagasy language, are normally used by the government in a time of crisis. But Mr Healy said they were not heard on Monday, and it has left many people taken aback by the storm's severity."
Giovanna is beginning to build up its core again.



Quoting MTWX:

I totally agree. I was just using this single tornado as an example (struck close to home). That's all it takes is one...


That's true, but at my house in at least 5 years, all we've been able to eke out is 2 or 3 45 mph wind gusts and a minute of smaller-than-pea sized hail. It really sucks.
Quoting aspectre:
Madagascar hit by cyclone Giovanna
"The government of Madagascar issued the first warnings on Monday afternoon - but residents say the intensity of the cyclone was not explained.
Town criers, who walk around the streets ringing a bell and shouting out information in the local Malagasy language, are normally used by the government in a time of crisis. But Mr Healy said they were not heard on Monday, and it has left many people taken aback by the storm's severity.


Are you serious? A CATEGORY 4 hurricane was coming towards the country and they sent out guys ringing bells and yelling? I thought this was 2012...not 1612!
"Town criers...were not heard on Monday..."
~320thousand internet users out of ~21million people; with most users located in small urban enclaves.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Are you serious? A CATEGORY 4 hurricane was coming towards the country and they sent out guys ringing bells and yelling? I thought this was 2012...not 1612!


This is what I posted earlier on the last blog, with the link to copy and paste:-

An extract from a BBC report on the Madagascar cyclone, its a short piece but gives a bit of an idea of the reasons we have not got much information out of there:-

"Town criers, who walk around the streets ringing a bell and shouting out information in the local Malagasy language, are normally used by the government in a time of crisis.

But Mr Healy said they were not heard on Monday and it has left many people taken aback by the storm's severity."

Here's the link if anybody wants to copy and paste it?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17025328

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Are you serious? A CATEGORY 4 hurricane was coming towards the country and they sent out guys ringing bells and yelling? I thought this was 2012...not 1612!
Hey, don't laugh; if enough anti-all-things-government politicians have their way and succeed in sufficiently defunding NOAA/NWS, we Americans might ourselves be forced back to the town crier method of news dissemination.

crier

;-)
Quoting PlazaRed:


This is what I posted earlier on the last blog, with the link to copy and paste:-

An extract from a BBC report on the Madagascar cyclone, its a short piece but gives a bit of an idea of the reasons we have not got much information out of there:-

"Town criers, who walk around the streets ringing a bell and shouting out information in the local Malagasy language, are normally used by the government in a time of crisis.

But Mr Healy said they were not heard on Monday and it has left many people taken aback by the storm's severity."

Here's the link if anybody wants to copy and paste it?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17025328



Probably the "TOWN CRIERS" stuck their heads in the sand to hide from the approaching storm they knew was coming. They was taking care of their own families first. Right or Wrong....guess that would be the nature of most i suppose.
Commenting on:- 42. WxGeekVA
I think its necessary to get into perspective the difference between the 1st and the other worlds!
We are in the 1st; in more or less all zones we have similar means of communications, its probably possible for governments to put out vital information and messages on mobile phones etc.
The 3rd world as many who have worked in it know, does not work like that a lot of the time.
I was recently in a village in North Africa which is much closer to the Western world in advancements. There were about 5000 people in the area. The village had one 4x4 and two cars, no bridge over the river for when it rained (most of the time it was dry).You could pay a local to carry you through the river if it had water in it.
Some houses had radios and there were a few satellite TVs and a few mobile phones. Compared to areas in some parts of Africa this village would be considered advanced.
Tropical Cyclone Giovanna, Madagascar.



Click Thumbnails for full size image.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Are you serious? A CATEGORY 4 hurricane was coming towards the country and they sent out guys ringing bells and yelling? I thought this was 2012...not 1612!


Horatio:
O day and night, but this is wondrous strange!

Hamlet:
And therefore as a stranger give it welcome.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,
Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Hamlet Act 1, scene 5.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Probably the "TOWN CRIERS" stuck their heads in the sand to hide from the approaching storm they knew was coming. They was taking care of their own families first. Right or Wrong....guess that would be the nature of most i suppose.

It is more or less certain that the TOWN CRIERS were not informed!
In these types of areas news travels so fast it can get there even before the messenger who brings it, also there are a few people with mobile phones in most areas who would have doubtless spread any information.
Given the amount of time the authorities would have known about the hurricane at government level, it is patently obvious that someone chose NOT to inform the populace of its imminent arrival.
Political reasoning does not always follow the same rules as it does in the West! BUT then again look at what we spent ages discusing last spring with the Japanese neuclear disaster and misinformation.
Tropical Cyclone Thirteen, Indian Ocean.





Click Thumbnails for full size image.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Since everything is going to hell in a hand bag, I'm going to purchase the following and not worry about debt since uncle Sam doesn't seem to care either and enjoy the last few months....




good time to invest in the stock mkt high risk high reward.
Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Pacific Ocean.




Click Thumbnails for full size image.
If you have any problems with me posting these images, WU-mail me. Or leave a comment. Goodnight
Center of the weather universe. North Pacific.

Quoting PlazaRed:

It is more or less certain that the TOWN CRIERS were not informed!
In these types of areas news travels so fast it can get there even before the messenger who brings it, also there are a few people with mobile phones in most areas who would have doubtless spread any information.
Given the amount of time the authorities would have known about the hurricane at government level, it is patently obvious that someone chose NOT to inform the populace of its imminent arrival.
Political reasoning does not always follow the same rules as it does in the West! BUT then again look at what we spent ages discusing last spring with the Japanese neuclear disaster and misinformation.
could have caused more problems for them with mass panic looting civil disorder more would have died then from the storm its self

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
could have caused more problems for them with mass panic looting civil disorder more would have died then from the storm its self



Hurricane Rita, 2005
All those heavy bands over the mountains. Lots of deforestation in Madagascar too. Not good.
Info from North Pacific Storm in Comment #56



Click Thumbnails for full size image.
The Western Pacific is looking impressive for February..
I think the WestPac has had supertyphoons every month of the year.
This does not bode well for the people in Mozambique... 96 hrs, valid at:
181200z --- 24.7s 37.5e
Max sustained winds - 070 kt, gusts 085 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
vector to 120 hr posit: 115 deg/ 04 kts
---
120 hrs, valid at:
191200z --- 25.3s 39.0e
Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
---
remarks:
141500z position near 19.6s 44.7e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 12s (giovanna), located approximately 100 nm
west of Antananarivo, Madagascar, has tracked westward at 14 knots
over the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite imagery
reveals that the system has tracked very quickly over the island,
with the low level circulation center (LLCC) passing just south of
Antananarivo at approximately 140430z. As expected, the convection
has struggled over the rugged terrain of central Madagascar, and low-
to mid- level clouds are now exposed to the south of the LLCC. The
maximum wind speed reported in the Capitol City was 32 knots (10-min
average) gusting to 48 knots. Despite the disruption to the central
convection, the fast translation speed should allow the system to re-
emerge in the Mozambique Channel and quickly reorganize. The current
position is based on animated multispectral satellite imagery and is
in line with fixes from both pgtw and knes. Upper level analysis
indicates tc 12s should emerge over the Mozambique Channel
approximately three degrees equatorward of the subtropical ridge
(str) axis, in an area with 15-20 knots of vertical wind shear. The
SSTs in The Channel are currently favorable for redevelopment. Tc
12s is currently tracking along the northern periphery of a deep
layer str to the east. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the
rest of the numerical model guidance is now indicating a shift in
the forecast track. The ECMWF, GFS, and GFDN models now depict the
system tracking towards a weakness in the str as a trough moves
through. The steering ridge is forecast to intensify and continue
tracking tc 12s around its western periphery, resulting in a curve
to the southeast around tau 96. Previously, the model guidance
called for a str over Africa to takeover steering, causing the
system to make landfall over Mozambique. The forecast track is
slightly faster than consensus, giving weight to the ECMWF model
which has been forecasting this motion for the last three cycles.
Next warnings at 150300z and 151500z. Refer to tropical cyclone 13s
(thirteen) warnings (wtxs32 pgtw) for twelve-hourly updates.
//
They were proberbly too busy cutting firewood to notice the cyclone was comming......
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
could have caused more problems for them with mass panic looting civil disorder more would have died then from the storm its self

Probably the usual bureaucratic SNAFU. Somebody in new position didn't know they were supposed to call X and tell them to call Y so the message would get to Z. Besides which we have the report from the only english-speaking journalist the BBC was able to get hold of in the country, who obviously knew how to spin a good tale, sure to get a byline and hopefully go viral. BBC shut down lots of African offices in last cut back and no-one else ever bothered about the continent. Reliable sources in non-major countries are a thing of the past. Al Jazeera have anything to report? Guess I'll go check.
I bet not one Lemur was Flying Like a Human Kite like I saw in Florida..once.

Quoting Patrap:
Now that path would be good.
Uploaded by mopays2012 on Feb 11, 2012
Cyclone Giovanna - A cyclone warning class 3 is in force in Mauritius
Read More at http://www.mopays.com/strong-tropical-cyclone-giov anna-local-weather-condition...



Quoting Patrap:
I bet not one Lemur was Flying Like a Human Kite like I saw in Florida..once.

I woulda let go after hittin the beach...but thats just me ya kno...:)
Quoting hydrus:
I woulda let go after hittin the beach...but thats just me ya kno...:)


Those Boys strap in at the waist,, dey aint no letting go, nor much Brains either.
There is a slight risk of severe weather for the deep south tommorow.

Sorry about length but thought I'd bring the whole article in case AJ blocked for some parties instead of posting a link. Sorry I can't figure how to import the map.

Africa
Cyclone Giovanna strikes Madagascar
Category four cyclone sweeps through tropical island's eastern shores, killing at least one person, officials say.
Last Modified: 14 Feb 2012 15:03

Giovanna formed as a tropical storm over the southern Indian Ocean on February 9 [NASA]

A category four cyclone has struck Madagascar's eastern shores, killing at least one person and causing power shutdowns in some major towns, local authorities say.

In the eastern port city of Tamatave, schools and offices were closed for a second day on Tuesday as heavy rains and powerful gusts struck the seaboard after Cyclone Giovanna hit the island.

"One person died in Brickaville after an electricity pole fell on her," Alain Mahavimbina, the top official in the capital Antsinanana, told the Reuters news agency.

The eye of the storm made landfall south of Tamatave.

"Tamatave is like a ghost town," Joel Milamaro, a resident told the Reuters news agency. "The roads are deserted."

In Antananarivo, the authorities cut off power and ordered drivers to stay off the roads and businesses to shut their doors as torrential rains persisted into Tuesday.

John Yoon-Yak Davis, the country director of the aid organization Care International, said preliminary assessments showed 60 per cent of homes were partially or completely damaged in some districts.

“Wood homes have lost roofs, more traditional structures made of palm leaves and bamboos have been completely destroyed. There is going to be great need in terms of reestablishing infrastructure and food supply for the population."

Al Jazeera's senior meteorologist, Steff Gaulter, says Giovanna has a well-defined eye, indicating that it is a very big storm.

'Imminent danger'

A special weather bulletin in the morning gave warning of "imminent danger".

Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center showed sustained winds of around 231km per hour driving the category four cyclone into Madagascar.

Twitter, the micro-blogging site, was also abuzz with reports from the island, with one user saying that heavy winds were "damaging structures and everything" in its wake.

Madagascar is prone to cyclones and tropical storms, especially in the rainy season from February to May.

In 2008, Cyclone Ivan hit Madagascar, killing more than 80 people and leaving over 200,000 homeless.

The US space agency NASA's website said the cyclone was expected to weaken as it moved across the world's fourth largest island, where foreign firms are mining nickel and ilmenite and exploring for oil.

"It is expected to move into Mozambique Channel and may re-intensify," NASA said.

Another Twitter user tweeted at 2:16pm local time that Cyclone Giovanna was expected hit Maputo in 48 hours.

Madagascans have set up a citizen reporting platform to map the various areas of need. View the map below:




Source:
Al Jazeera and agencies
Quoting Patrap:


Those Boys strap in at the waist,, dey aint no letting go, nor much Brains either.
I changed my mind about kite sailing today. I bet he wishes he had stayed home that day too..:)
Cyclone Giovanna killed at least one person--wonder what the final death toll will be. I'm sure it didn't stop at 1.
New GEFS was scheduled for implementation today. Among improvements:

The upgrade in the GEFS production suite includes:



1. Running the latest Global Forecast System (GFS) model with improved physics scheme GFS v9.1.0 to replace the currently used GFS v8.0



2. Increasing the horizontal resolution from T190 (about 70km) to T254 (about 50-55km) for the first 192 hours (8days) of model integration



3. Increasing vertical resolution from 28 levels to 42 levels for 0-384 hours (0-16 days) forecasts



I have not seen any confirmation, but the NCEP Status showed delays in running the GEFS, which was described in the TIN.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Cyclone Giovanna killed at least one person--wonder what the final death toll will be. I'm sure it didn't stop at 1.
Madagascar's emergency service is reporting three dead, but many areas are still flooded, so it's difficult to make an assessment at this time. Less potent storms have left a lot of destruction there in the past, though in looking at old news reports, it apparently takes sometimes weeks to get figures that are even close to accurate.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Are you serious? A CATEGORY 4 hurricane was coming towards the country and they sent out guys ringing bells and yelling? I thought this was 2012...not 1612!


Out of touch much?

It's a third world country.

Like I said yesterday, I doubt most people there know what a cell phone is.

We Americans are clueless to the technology gap and living conditions in many parts of the world.
13S

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
New GEFS was scheduled for implementation today. Among improvements:

The upgrade in the GEFS production suite includes:



1. Running the latest Global Forecast System (GFS) model with improved physics scheme GFS v9.1.0 to replace the currently used GFS v8.0



2. Increasing the horizontal resolution from T190 (about 70km) to T254 (about 50-55km) for the first 192 hours (8days) of model integration



3. Increasing vertical resolution from 28 levels to 42 levels for 0-384 hours (0-16 days) forecasts



I have not seen any confirmation, but the NCEP Status showed delays in running the GEFS, which was described in the TIN.



Wow.

That's a big change.

that's about 3 times as many data points for the first 192 hours, and 1.5 times as many data points afterwards.

Even if there's very little recursion, this would require enormous amounts of improvements in the hardware to accomplish a model run in the same time period. At least two generations of Moore's Law in fact, or the equivalent of it by adding tons more processors.


so this is going to be used for all forecasting of weather, including tropical?


Is the old version going to stay in use in case the new version is too buggy or demanding?
Thirteen look pathetic lol....but i guess all beginners do :D
SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook


Chance of severe weather not as high
FORECAST
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A THREAT OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH UPDRAFTS ROOTED NEAR 850MB.
HOWEVER...WITH TIME SFC HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE IN FORCING NEAR-SFC BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY 18Z
FROM THE ARKLATEX SWWD TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST. SHEAR PROFILES
CERTAINLY FAVOR SEVERE TSTMS AS SFC-6KM VALUES ARE WELL WITHIN
TOLERANCE FOR MAINTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THAT WARM
ADVECTION MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A LOT OF THE EARLY
INITIATION...THERE MAY BE A PROPENSITY FOR A WEAK MCS-TYPE CLUSTER
EVOLVING ALONG NRN FRINGE OF RETURNING DEEPER MOISTURE.

MODELS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING THE NRN GULF STATES AND
WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE SOMEWHAT
...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THAT THE STRONGER FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. WHILE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...IT APPEARS THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE JUST NORTH OF RETREATING CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS AND BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED IN NATURE NORTH OF I-20. GIVEN
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF
STATES...ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO SPREAD INTO
NRN AL. FOR THIS REASON HAVE LOWERED PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS
REGION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ACTIVITY
WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MORE
COMMON WITH UPDRAFTS ROOTED WITHIN NEAR-SFC ENVIRONMENT...SWD INTO
THE WARM SECTOR.

Shifted into SE TX

Quoting RTSplayer:


Out of touch much?

It's a third world country.

Like I said yesterday, I doubt most people there know what a cell phone is.

We Americans are clueless to the technology gap and living conditions in many parts of the world.
Madagascar may not be as backward as you make it out to be. The nation has millions of cell phones; high-speed internet; highways; airports; seaports; hotels; lavish tourist resorts; newspapers; TV stations; hospitals; and so on. Sure, because of economic disparity, not every resident has access to that full range of modern services and conveniences. But the place is nevertheless more than a bunch of ignorant and out-of-touch heathens living naked in the bushes. ;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Madagascar may not be as backward as you make it out to be. The nation has millions of cell phones; high-speed internet; highways; airports; seaports; hotels; lavish tourist resorts; newspapers; TV stations; hospitals; and so on. Sure, because of economic disparity, not every resident has access to that full range of modern services and conveniences. But the place is nevertheless more than a bunch of ignorant and out-of-touch heathens living naked in the bushes. ;-)


I didn't say that.

Lol...

FWIW this is the map should go with #73 above:

Madagascans have set up a citizen reporting platform to map the various areas of need. View the map below:

Source:
Al Jazeera and agencies


Quoting SPLbeater:
Thirteen look pathetic lol....but i guess all beginners do :D


Ever wonder what you looked like at 3 days old. LOL
Quoting RTSplayer:



Wow.

That's a big change.

that's about 3 times as many data points for the first 192 hours, and 1.5 times as many data points afterwards.

Even if there's very little recursion, this would require enormous amounts of improvements in the hardware to accomplish a model run in the same time period. At least two generations of Moore's Law in fact, or the equivalent of it by adding tons more processors.


so this is going to be used for all forecasting of weather, including tropical?


Is the old version going to stay in use in case the new version is too buggy or demanding?


Yes the GEFS is used for weather forecasting, including tropical. It is basically the GFS with different initial conditions which creates an ensemble of solutions.

This latest version has been in "parallel" testing for several months, so hopefully all of the "bugs" have been already discovered, but some do get through.

Also, NCEP is running out of computer power to do all of the different model runs within the 6 hour "window" of the model cycle and soon if not already a moritorium on new/upgraded products will be in place. Plans for increased computer power are being formulated last I had read, but don't know the current status.
Quoting RTSplayer:



We Americans are clueless to the technology gap and living conditions in many parts of the world.


We certainly are.

Fact is, the US is only number 72 in terms of cell phones per capita. There are several "much less developed" countries that have a higher cell phone penetration than do we. Countries such as Romania, the Philippines, Malaysia, El Salvador.

Cell phones are common in much of the less developed world. Not everyone carries one, but they are there and well used.

I have traveled a lot to Asia and cell phones in places such as Thailand(#36) were very common when one rarely saw one in the US.

In places where cells phones are difficult to afford it's common to see people running their own mini-phone companies by renting out their cell phone for others to use. In remote villages people will send their phones by bus to be charged in a town that is connected to the grid.

In 2009 Madagascar had one cell phone per every four people. They are connected.
Quoting RTSplayer:


It's a third world country.

Like I said yesterday, I doubt most people there know what a cell phone is.



According to this there was over two million cell phones back in 2007. Total population is something like 20 million, so I guess almost everyone knows very well what a cell phone is. Owning one and paying bills with $1 daily income might be harder.
Anyone have a theory of why Florida has had so many record lows this year, especially in the past week?



Florida and Georgia lows and low max have nearly balanced out the record highs and high mins of everyone else this week, even though highs still out number lows.
Just 137 days left.
Anyone know which country has the "highest standard of living"
Quoting jatufin:


According to this there was over two million cell phones back in 2007. Total population is something like 20 million, so I guess almost everyone knows very well what a cell phone is. Owning one and paying bills with $1 daily income might be harder.


By 2009 there were around 4.8 million cell phones in the country.
Quoting jatufin:


According to this there was over two million cell phones back in 2007. Total population is something like 20 million, so I guess almost everyone knows very well what a cell phone is. Owning one and paying bills with $1 daily income might be harder.


Perhaps we are being bamboozled, and their income is higher than they report to international community.


Foreign currency scam 101.

I did notice in some video that some of their highways are actually similar to ours and even have the same street lamps.

Quoting Grothar:
Anyone know which country has the "highest standard of living"


There's a standard?

Uh, oh...
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone know which country has the "highest standard of living"


Depends, I expect, on how you define "highest standard of living". If you use the United Nations metric...

"The Human Development Index (HDI) is a comparative measure of life expectancy, literacy, education and standards of living for countries worldwide. It is a standard means of measuring well-being, especially child welfare."

... then Norway comes in first, followed by Australia and the Netherlands with the US coming in at number four.

Madagascar is number 151, about the middle of the pack.
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone know which country has the "highest standard of living"

I didn't know, but google did...and I should have guessed it.

1. Norway
2. Australia
3. Netherlands
and finally
4. US
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone know which country has the "highest standard of living"
Norway?
Norway had the Highest standard of Living in the Spring of 84, no doubt.
The Aussies released their Enso Wrap-up update and no surprises here as La Nina is weakening as CPC Febuary update also showed.

Link
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone know which country has the "highest standard of living"


Here's a different rating system, one aimed at people looking for a great place to live out their retirement years.

"To produce this annual Index we consider nine categories: Cost of Living, Culture and Leisure, Economy, Environment, Freedom, Health, Infrastructure, Safety and Risk, and Climate."

France takes the top spot, the US comes in at number 7,

http://internationalliving.com/2010/02/quality-of -life-2010/
You all get an A for answering. Except I am giving an A- to BobWallace for not thinking I know the different meanings and ratings of "Standard of Living". LOL :):):)
Quoting goosegirl1:

I didn't know, but google did...and I should have guessed it.

1. Norway
2. Australia
3. Netherlands
and finally
4. US


A

Quoting hydrus:
Norway?


A
Quoting Patrap:
Norway had the Highest standard of Living in the Spring of 84, no doubt.


Nice time then, eh, Pat?

A
Nice time then, eh, Pat?

Was a adventure and a Mission of Learning for me..and the Host Folks were most accommodating.

But the West Germans had a tad rough time..

Thanx for the "A", it's been quite a while since I had one o dem.
Quoting Grothar:
You all get an A for answering. Except I am giving an A- to BobWallace for not thinking I know the different meanings and ratings of "Standard of Living". LOL :):):)
I wuz thinking Sweden maybe too.
Significant improvement made to the ongoing drought across the region as the wet weather pattern that developed in late October brings widespread wetting rainfalls.



As of Feb 7, 2012, only 23% of the state is considered in D4 or exceptional drought (the worst of the drought categories) which is a massive improvement from late summer 2011 when 86% of the state was in D4 conditions. Most of SE TX has transitioned from D 4 to D3 (extreme) and D2 (severe drought). D4 exceptional drought continues to hang on however in the area from Houston and Walker counties WSW across Grimes and Washington counties and then from Jackson across Calhoun counties and southward down the TX coast. Much of the areas west of I-45 remain in extreme drought while areas east of I-45 have moved into severe to moderate drought. Across the central part of the state, drought continues remain significant, while most of N TX has been removed from drought conditions by the recent rainfall.



While short term gains have been large, the longer term averages continue to show very large rainfall deficits of 30-50 inches across SE TX for the past 2 years. In fact this region and especially east TX has been dry since the passage of Hurricane Ike in 2008.



Rainfall has been averaging near to above average east of a line from College Station to Katy to Galveston so far in 2012. In fact Houston IAH has recorded over 9 inches of rainfall in December and January which is more rainfall in those two months than for the entire period from Feb-Sept 2011 when only 7.18 inches of rain fell.
Quoting Grothar:
You all get an A for answering. Except I am giving an A- to BobWallace for not thinking I know the different meanings and ratings of "Standard of Living". LOL :):):)


As we age what we once knew and what we now know tends to differ. And not in a good way.

At least that's my experience.... ;o)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Madagascar may not be as backward as you make it out to be. The nation has millions of cell phones; high-speed internet; highways; airports; seaports; hotels; lavish tourist resorts; newspapers; TV stations; hospitals; and so on. Sure, because of economic disparity, not every resident has access to that full range of modern services and conveniences. But the place is nevertheless more than a bunch of ignorant and out-of-touch heathens living naked in the bushes. ;-)

I totally agree. All you have to do is look at the pictures from there.
I've noticed the gulf has cooled nicely in the last half week.
Quoting hydrus:
I wuz thinking Sweden maybe too.


Not much difference between the two. Just don't tell them that.
To place this in even greater context:



The 7.0 inches of rainfall at Amarillo is less than the 9.1 inches seen in Tehran, Iran. The 5.86 inches at Lubbock is only an inch above Khartoum Sudan (4.8 inches). The period from October 1, 2010 to October 1, 2011 recorded a state average rainfall of about 11 inches or 16 inches below normal and less than that of Morocco and Tunisia!



The rainfall amounts over SE and E TX in 2011 were similar to what one would expect over the corridor from San Angelo to Midland. Effectively the climate of western TX was placed over what is typically a wet eastern TX resulting in severe impacts to water supply and vegetation. Additionally in deep eastern TX, 2012 starts the 3rd year of drought conditions…a longer term drought compared to locations along the coastal bend and central TX which moved into drought conditions during the spring of 2011 (12-15 months). Most of east TX was already running 15-25 inch rainfall deficits at the end of 2010 when most other locations were just starting to enter very dry conditions.



Rainfall Departures from January 1, 2010 – January 31, 2012:



Anahuac: -40.82

Bellville: -36.53

Brenham: -35.91

College Station: -32.83

Columbus: -29.59

Conroe: -38.68

Crockett: -26.23

Danevang: -21.99

Galveston: -46.65

Freeport: -47.61

Houston Hobby: -33.97

Houston IAH: -30.56

Huntsville: -49.49

Katy: -26.38

Livingston: -46.58

Madisonville: -41.32

Matagorda: -16.79

Palacios: -18.30

Somerville: -30.07

Tomball: -54.36

Beaumont: -36.14

Lake Charles: -34.48
event in space over spantansburg ET? stubbleon.
Quoting BobWallace:


As we age what we once knew and what we now know tends to differ. And not in a good way.

At least that's my experience.... ;o)


Once I find my glasses, I'll answer that.
We are totally in the hole since 2010, it is going to take a monumental flooding event to erase these deficits!!


Rainfall Departures from January 1, 2010 – January 31, 2012:


Anahuac: -40.82

Bellville: -36.53

Brenham: -35.91

College Station: -32.83

Columbus: -29.59

Conroe: -38.68

Crockett: -26.23

Danevang: -21.99

Galveston: -46.65

Freeport: -47.61

Houston Hobby: -33.97

Houston IAH: -30.56

Huntsville: -49.49

Katy: -26.38

Livingston: -46.58

Madisonville: -41.32

Matagorda: -16.79

Palacios: -18.30

Somerville: -30.07

Tomball: -54.36

Beaumont: -36.14

Lake Charles: -34.48
Quoting Grothar:


Not much difference between the two. Just don't tell them that.



I think the Swedes have a higher standard of chocolate than does Norway. ... But, I could be wrong.;-)
Grothar "Anyone know which country has the 'highest standard of living' "

Netherlands. All them thar "coffee" shops, ya know.
Still maintaining a lot of convection near its center.

Thats a strong ridge in the Atlantic
Memorial Park in City of Houston

Memorial Park:

The combination of the extremely hot and dry summer and urban development around Memorial Park likely led to the staggering losses. It appears that at least 90% of the park’s canopy cover died with the City of Houston removing a total of 17,500 trees. Many of the trees were 100+ years old and lived through the droughts of the 1910’s and 1950’s, but were unable to survive the current drought. A total of 200,000 cubic yards of tree debris has been removed from Memorial Park.



The City also estimated that 80% of the pines in MacGregor Park died.



Centerpoint has removed 19,000 dead trees from their Right of Way at a cost of 5.1 million dollars.



Of the 225 school districts in the region, an estimated 225,000 trees have died on their property or a mortality rate of about 50%.
Australia makes sense, their population density is 15 times lower than ours, and their per capita GDP way higher than of ours for 2012, with an area of 77% of ours.


So if you have up to 15 times the resources per person, on average, then you should logically exceed in standard of living.

Exports and imports seem to be balanced as well.

Vs our imports being 50% higher than exports, which explains $700 billion of the deficit, maybe. hey republican capitalists, export some more jobs to China for us!


I might like to live in Australia. I like the women's accent. LOL.


The Mexican illegals have the wrong idea. They should catch a boat to Australia. More resources to work with!
It also looks to be another windy day for the eastern seaboard. According the ECMWF, 980mb low just south of great lakes producing windspeeds from extreme NE South Carolina to Delaware of 30-35 knots.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I think the Swedes have a higher standard of chocolate than does Norway. ... But, I could be wrong.;-)


And tyttebaerer!
Quoting Grothar:


And tyttebaerer!


Hey! There are kids on this blog! ;-)
You're paying for that BEEF

Ag Impacts:

Lack of fresh water supplies and poor vegetation for grazing have resulted in one of the largest cattle reductions ever in the state of Texas. Productions herds are down 600,000 from this time last year and is the lowest in the state since 1961. In addition, the body condition of cattle has deteriorated from poor nutrition and the calving season has progressed. Due to the drought it is estimated that consumer prices have increased 3.5-4.5% with beef being the largest increase at 8-9% along with timber (8%). Hay remains in short supply across much of the state and continues to sell at extremely high prices of 150 dollars per round bale to 13-20 dollars per square bale.



A record 5.2 billion dollars in losses have occurred across the state with an estimated additional indirect losses of 3.5 billion with total losses likely in the 8-11 billion dollars and this is from the fall of 2011.

Not a good day on Wall Street so far as of 3:30 PM EST.

DOW-12800.93 -73.11 -0.57%

NASDAQ-2913.85 -17.54 -0.6%

S&P 500-1342.13 -9.64 -0.71%

..a family of tree's wanting,
to be haunted...


3D Ride on asteroid vesta

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
PERTURBATION TROPICALE, FORMER GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 14 2012
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance, Former Giovanna (xxxx hPa) located at 20.0S 44.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 21.4S 42.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 22.6S 40.7E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 23.9S 38.8E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 24.9S 36.9E - 75 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================

Ex-giovanna is going back over sea in the Mozambique Channel near Morondava. It is tracking west-south-westward to south-westward under the steering influence of high pressures of low to mid-troposphere centered south of la reunion island. It is expected to keep on this track for the next three days but should progressively slow down toward a barometric pass transiting in the south of the Mozambique Channel. On Saturday, it should recurve south-eastward and its speed might remain slow due to a weak steering influence in the mid-troposphere between two ridges.

Numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the track during the next 48 hours. Beyond, they are discrepancies. Some numerical weather prediction models forecast a westward track, towards the Mozambique coast. Others like ECMWF forecast the southeastward recurve, more or less rapidly. Present RSMC official forecast track is close to ECMWF model.

On this track, environmental conditions are favorable. Easterly vertical wind shear disappears as the system moves under an upper level ridge. Low levels feeding is good on both sides of the low. Ocean heat content is very high. System should regenerate rapidly over the Mozambique Channel. At the end of the forecast period, sea surface temperature decrease a bit and system should begin to undergo westerly vertical wind shear and so begin to weaken.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TD GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20112012
22:00 PM RET February 14 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10 (1001 hPa) located at 14.4S 87.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.5/W0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 15.2S 84.7E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.5S 82.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.1S 78.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 16.6S 74.5E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

For the last 6 hours, convection is very fluctuating and system seems less well-organized. 1554z PM UTC ASCAT swath is not centered but we can see that low level clockwise circulation is weak and weakly extended.

System rapidly tracks west southwestward on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures existing in the south.

Available numerical weather prediction models poorly analyze this low and do not forecast significant deepening within the next few days despite rather good environmental conditions in the upper level. Very poor equatorward low level inflow seems be the missing ingredient for intensification.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #24
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
6:00 AM FST February 15 2012
===================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE VAVA'U AND HA'APAI GROUP.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (987 hPa) located at 21.2S 176.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 5 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization same past 12 hours. Convection has slightly decreased in last 12 hours. System lies just to the south of an upper ridge axis. Vertical shear is minimal. Sea surface temperature around 28C

Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap on log10 spiral, yielding DT=2.5, PT=2.5 and MET=2.5, final Dvorak based on MET

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a west-northwest movement with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 22.2S 178.0W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 23.1S 178.9W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 24.3S 179.5W - 60 knots (CAT 2)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 2:30 AM UTC..
Quoting RitaEvac:
You're paying for that BEEF

Ag Impacts:

Lack of fresh water supplies and poor vegetation for grazing have resulted in one of the largest cattle reductions ever in the state of Texas. Productions herds are down 600,000 from this time last year and is the lowest in the state since 1961. In addition, the body condition of cattle has deteriorated from poor nutrition and the calving season has progressed. Due to the drought it is estimated that consumer prices have increased 3.5-4.5% with beef being the largest increase at 8-9% along with timber (8%). Hay remains in short supply across much of the state and continues to sell at extremely high prices of 150 dollars per round bale to 13-20 dollars per square bale.



A record 5.2 billion dollars in losses have occurred across the state with an estimated additional indirect losses of 3.5 billion with total losses likely in the 8-11 billion dollars and this is from the fall of 2011.



My God.

That is obscene.

Hay is $30 per round bale here in Louisiana.


Maybe we need some additional planning for water management and livestock alternatives.


If we can run oil pipelines from Texas across the country, why not run fresh water pipelines from the Missourri and the Mississippi to Texas to recharge reservoirs and irrigation??

Such a water line would pay for itself the first time it prevented a year like this from happening.
Quoting RitaEvac:
To place this in even greater context:



The 7.0 inches of rainfall at Amarillo is less than the 9.1 inches seen in Tehran, Iran. The 5.86 inches at Lubbock is only an inch above Khartoum Sudan (4.8 inches). The period from October 1, 2010 to October 1, 2011 recorded a state average rainfall of about 11 inches or 16 inches below normal and less than that of Morocco and Tunisia!



The rainfall amounts over SE and E TX in 2011 were similar to what one would expect over the corridor from San Angelo to Midland. Effectively the climate of western TX was placed over what is typically a wet eastern TX resulting in severe impacts to water supply and vegetation. Additionally in deep eastern TX, 2012 starts the 3rd year of drought conditions…a longer term drought compared to locations along the coastal bend and central TX which moved into drought conditions during the spring of 2011 (12-15 months). Most of east TX was already running 15-25 inch rainfall deficits at the end of 2010 when most other locations were just starting to enter very dry conditions.



Rainfall Departures from January 1, 2010 – January 31, 2012:



Anahuac: -40.82

Bellville: -36.53

Brenham: -35.91

College Station: -32.83

Columbus: -29.59

Conroe: -38.68

Crockett: -26.23

Danevang: -21.99

Galveston: -46.65

Freeport: -47.61

Houston Hobby: -33.97

Houston IAH: -30.56

Huntsville: -49.49

Katy: -26.38

Livingston: -46.58

Madisonville: -41.32

Matagorda: -16.79

Palacios: -18.30

Somerville: -30.07

Tomball: -54.36

Beaumont: -36.14

Lake Charles: -34.48

Go Tomball! Way to make it to the top of the list that NOBODY wants to be on!

The last few weeks of rain out here have made an incredible difference, but the whole state needs a LOT more rain.


The big disagreement with JTWC is not good for 13S (10R)..
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Not a good day on Wall Street so far as of 3:30 PM EST.

DOW-12800.93 -73.11 -0.57%

NASDAQ-2913.85 -17.54 -0.6%

S&P 500-1342.13 -9.64 -0.71%



Wow,in the last minutes of trading,buyers came to lift the dow to positive territory at +4.24.
Poor Madagascar... I hope there isn't too much damage or injuries. And I hope that TC3 misses them so they have time to recover.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Since everything is going to hell in a hand bag, I'm going to purchase the following and not worry about debt since uncle Sam doesn't seem to care either and enjoy the last few months....






I asked Santa for one of these this year. I must've been on the other list. Sigh... ;D



I posted this because I thought it was neat looking....
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I asked Santa for one of these this year. I must've been on the other list. Sigh... ;D



That looks like the Bugatti Veyron...
These are clouds...pfft
JTWC 2100z warning for 13S at 40kts.

WTXS32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 87.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 87.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.1S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.7S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.3S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.9S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.8S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.7S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.3S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 87.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WITH IMPROVED BANDING STRUCTURES OBSERVED IN A 141554Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
CONSOLIDATION OF DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 13S
IS TRACKING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF A WELL ESTABLISHED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS, AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT ALONG THE
FORECASTED TRACK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S IS LOCATED
IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, A
TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IS ENHANCING THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE, WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VWS. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED DRAMATICALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SHOWING A
SHARPER SOUTHWESTERN TRACK THAN DEPICTED IN THIS FORECAST. THE
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS FURTHER NORTH THAN ALL AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, WHICH LOSES TC 13S AFTER TAU
36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S
(GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Quoting hydrus:
That looks like the Bugatti Veyron...


Thats exactly what it is.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Thats exactly what it is.
I heard it moves at over 250 mph....I went 165 mph once. Hard for me to imagine 250.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


The big disagreement with JTWC is not good for 13S (10R)..


ECMF is interesting......


Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I asked Santa for one of these this year. I must've been on the other list. Sigh... ;D





It takes a bigger glass of milk and more cookies to get one of those! I ought to know. I am on my third cow and had a Keebler's elf baking cookies all night and I still did not get one! As a matter of fact, when I got up the next morning, the cows were dry and the elf is working for Santa now! ... Some days, you just can't win!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I think the Swedes have a higher standard of chocolate than does Norway. ... But, I could be wrong.;-)


I don't know about the chocolate, but perhaps it bears scientific analysis...

but I have a serious crush on Norwegian stranded knit mittens and lusekofte :) Dalegarn is amazing stuff. I have enough wool yarn to clothe an entire fleet of vikings.
Quoting hydrus:
I heard it moves at over 250 mph....I went 165 mph once. Hard for me to imagine 250.


Yes, I probably would've done this with it... lol

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


It takes a bigger glass of milk and more cookies to get one of those! I ought to know. I am on my third cow and had a Keebler's elf baking cookies all night and I still did not get one! As a matter of fact, when I got up the next morning, the cows were dry and the elf is working for Santa now! ... Some days, you just can't win!


LOL!
Quoting goosegirl1:


I don't know about the chocolate, but perhaps it bears scientific analysis...

but I have a serious crush on Norwegian stranded knit mittens and lusekofte :) Dalegarn is amazing stuff. I have enough wool yarn to clothe an entire fleet of vikings.

In another time Homeland Security would have been onto you.
Quoting hydrus:
I heard it moves at over 250 mph....I went 165 mph once. Hard for me to imagine 250.
The tires on the Bugatti only last 15 minutes at top speed but don't worry it will run out of gas in 12 minutes this is for the old model at a top speed of 253mph, the new one (super sport) has topped 269mph
Ok, back to earth now. And weather. Hope this rain event is more mellow than those of late

Got some rain showers moving through the area...clustered small showers.
Ruh Roh





Quoting bappit:

In another time Homeland Security would have been onto you.

OK, now I'm dying to know why! Are they afraid I'll use the yarn as wadding for my musket???
January 25 Severe Weather Outbreak

On the morning of January 25, 2012, a slow moving cold front pushed through Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana. Ahead of this front, a strong squall line developed and by midday began producing embedded tornados as it pushed across the area. A Tornado Watch was issued by the Storm Prediction Center at 7:55 AM for the entire area through 3:00 PM on the afternoon of the 25th. The watch was eventually reissued through 9:00 PM.

A total of 12 tornados were confirmed over the course of the afternoon and evening. Additionally, another 4 reports of severe thunderstorm damage as well as 7 reports of strong marine winds were reported over the course of the event.

A total of 32 warnings were issued during the event. These warnings consisted of 9 Tornado warnings, 13 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and 10 Special Marine Warnings.

What a nice day in Massachusetts today! I hope Madagascar is faring ok; it could be bad news for them and Mozambique if Giovanna just stays in the Mozambique Channel (kinda like Funso) and reintensifies.
Quoting goosegirl1:


I don't know about the chocolate, but perhaps it bears scientific analysis...

but I have a serious crush on Norwegian stranded knit mittens and lusekofte :) Dalegarn is amazing stuff. I have enough wool yarn to clothe an entire fleet of vikings.


I could use one with reindeer on it.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Ruh Roh







Not ruh-roh..... more like WOOT GFS now on board for snow!!!!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Not ruh-roh..... more like WOOT GFS now on board for snow!!!!


haha, yeah that gives me 8-10... thats a little much. Would love to see some consistency now for the 0z.
This is good news as well
The NOGAPS develops 2 more system in the S Indian by hour 120 :D
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


haha, yeah that gives me 8-10... thats a little much. Would love to see some consistency now for the 0z.


Link

More like 3-4, 8-10 is a little much...

EDIT for my area, not VA Beach
2.5 1 MIN AGO 2.9 39 MINS AGO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Link

More like 3-4, 8-10 is a little much...

EDIT for my area, not VA Beach


Once I am north of the blue line it shows about ..6-.8 of precip. At 1:12 that would be 8-10. Im excited to see, it, ready for at least one snow storm to track!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Once I am north of the blue line it shows about ..6-.8 of precip. At 1:12 that would be 8-10. Im excited to see, it, ready for at least one snow storm to track!


You may be right but it doesn't get cold enough down there to snow in VA Beach until the end of the storm:

Link
Looking at congress.

35 STEM and medical combined.

9 agriculture background.

So, who makes informed decisions about infrastructure or technology?

Besides just the capitalistic "invisible hand" bunk?

Who knows how to make all the things we use and need?

Employees might know how to make one or two components of something, or maybe less. Maybe they know one or two steps in a process.


A few years ago, I was obsessed with cyrstals and learning about the technologies we use to grow useful crystals, such as Corundum (saphire,) for use in lasers and tools and things. I spent days on end studying all of the processes involved, and to be honest forgot most of it anyway. But I was thinking, just this one area of science and technology, you could study for years and never be up-to-date on it.

I had been studying it because I was trying to figure out a way of doing self-assembly for macroscopic machines made from materials in the solar system. I thought some sort of vapor deposition would be promising. Make even macroscopic components from artificial crystals that are coated in metal alloys, so that you have compressive strength of the crystal protected from fracture by the coat of metal alloy, but I digress...

*ahem*

So how are we going to learn the future of atomically precise technologies for better materials, including composites, and more efficient machines?

It has gotten to the point where it takes a person their entire life just to learn what the previous generation has made, and really it's not even possible any more. You pretty much just have to "let it go" and not even think about, I guess.

I seem to have OCD or something, and try to cram it all in, even though I know I can't.


But where is all this going? We don't seem to get much about this generation gap from our leaders.

I mean no offense, but we are in danger of "idiocracy", where we aren't even going to understand our technology without asking the technology itself.

Already, I rely on Wikipedia, dictionarydotcom, and Google as if it was my own long term memory or something. It's scary.

A lot of other people in my age group and downwards seem to just try to drown out thinking about it with drugs or alcohol.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
This is good news as well


Good news in what sense?

Good news for companies that want to drill in the Arctic for oil and for companies that want to ship goods/oil through the area, I suppose.

Bad news for the planet. Ice extent is roughly tied with the worst year on record. Thickness/volume is even lower than the worst year. About 15% lower.

That grey band illustrates two standard deviations from the 1979 - 2000 mean. Ice extent is way past two SDs below historical average.

Unfortunately it looks like Arctic sea ice is on its deathbed. We're sitting along side watching the end unfold...

Quoting Grothar:


I could use one with reindeer on it.


I have charts for that. Have you seen the Happy Reindeer chart? Too funny, but not for children.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Ruh Roh







starting to look better for a small snowstorm in VA
2.9 SOUTHERN ALASKA 1 MIN AGO 5.2 EAST COAST OF JAPAN
Quoting BobWallace:


Good news in what sense?

Good news for companies that want to drill in the Arctic for oil and for companies that want to ship goods/oil through the area, I suppose.

Bad news for the planet. Ice extent is roughly tied with the worst year on record. Thickness/volume is even lower than the worst year. About 15% lower.

That grey band illustrates two standard deviations from the 1979 - 2000 mean. Ice extent is way past two SDs below historical average.

Unfortunately it looks like Arctic sea ice is on its deathbed. We're sitting along side watching the end unfold...

THAT OCCURS AUG/SEPT 2015
4.2 VANCOUVER 4 MINS AGO
i am expecting a large event sowewhere 7.5 to a 8.2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i am expecting a large event sowewhere 7.5 to a 8.2

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
THAT OCCURS AUG/SEPT 2015


I'm not sure what to expect from the winter sea ice and snow packs once the first september meltdown happens.

It seems like greenland's melt rate should increase rapidly due to the additional albedo feedback over larger areas and much longer time periods each year.

But maybe the worst thing in the short term, as far as the arctic circle goes, is the Methane torches from the permafrost. If it was so bad last year, imagine if all the sea ice melts by 2015. The Methane torches might be 100 times worse, even when last year was 100 times worse than anything previous.

They watched some plumes for a while at Barrow last year, but ultimately they didn't end up being too bad globally, once they mixed into the atmosphere, but the spike on the local flask measurement was like 250ppb above previous highest spike. Imagine if the torches get ten or a hundred times worst over the next several years?
Too bad all that snow is staying up north this year, there has been a significant snow event for at least the last 4 years in N GA.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Too bad all that snow is staying up north this year, there has been a significant snow event for at least the last 4 years in N GA.

Winter's not over. I'm hoping I'll get one big snowstorm before Spring comes.
I hope so, weather sucks if its not snowing or thundering
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
2.5 1 MIN AGO 2.9 39 MINS AGO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Whats up with all these quakes.? Next thing I know there will be one under me house.
Apparently many small scale earthquakes are beneficial in the way they slowly release built up pressure in the plates.
I'm departing on a cruise to the Western Caribbean this Saturday from south Florida and at some point will have to cross through that cold front prognosticated to be moving through the region this weekend. Experiencing a storm at sea during a cruise is always great fun for me... Plus I'll get to see how well the largest cruise ship in the world can handle rough seas :D
Quoting goosegirl1:

OK, now I'm dying to know why! Are they afraid I'll use the yarn as wadding for my musket???

Vikings! The berserkers were really bad.
Seems like all the models show this gulf low.GFS.CMC.Euro.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Winter's not over. I'm hoping I'll get one big snowstorm before Spring comes.

You upset because you haven't gotten any snow and you're in North Carolina... Imagine how I feel getting almost no snow in Massachusetts! This winter's been awful!
New invest 93W pops up in WPAC.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i am expecting a large event sowewhere 7.5 to a 8.2


The "Ring of Fire" is very active today, that is for sure.
Up to 198 now
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
New invest 93W pops up in WPAC.


I'm interested in this one... looks like some development is possible, but more imporantly it will be a very slow mover... definite flooding concern for countries around it
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

You upset because you haven't gotten any snow and you're in North Carolina... Imagine how I feel getting almost no snow in Massachusetts! This winter's been awful!

I think I'm gonna move to Colorado when I grow up...They get a lot of snow.

On second thought, if I want to work at the National Hurricane Center, that means I'll have to move to Miami, doesn't it? :\
.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

You upset because you haven't gotten any snow and you're in North Carolina... Imagine how I feel getting almost no snow in Massachusetts! This winter's been awful!


I am also in North Carolina. give me a thunderstorm and i happy :D
Somewhere a Mayan Stone Carver chuckle's.
Quoting bappit:
What's this hang up on snow? What if the summer on the Gulf coast had no heat and humidity? Would I feel let down? ... Yes.


I could do without the heat and humidity.

If GW gets bad, maybe I'll move to Alaska. I like snow, but not snowed in. So if GW gets that bad, Alaska might be perfect.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think I'm gonna move to Colorado when I grow up...They get a lot of snow.

On second thought, if I want to work at the National Hurricane Center, that means I'll have to move to Miami, doesn't it? :\


I think i want to join the NWS in Raleigh.
Im gonna go to kansas or nebraska when i grow up, snow in winter, severe thunderstorms in spring and summer.
Quoting Patrap:
Somewhere a Mayan Stone Carver chuckle's.


Huh?

What's that all about?
Quoting BobWallace:


Good news in what sense?

Good news for companies that want to drill in the Arctic for oil and for companies that want to ship goods/oil through the area, I suppose.

Bad news for the planet. Ice extent is roughly tied with the worst year on record. Thickness/volume is even lower than the worst year. About 15% lower.

That grey band illustrates two standard deviations from the 1979 - 2000 mean. Ice extent is way past two SDs below historical average.

Unfortunately it looks like Arctic sea ice is on its deathbed. We're sitting along side watching the end unfold...



um, its always good news when it goes towards the average... good for the planet? unless youd rather it tank?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Im gonna go to kansas or nebraska when i grow up, snow in winter, severe thunderstorms in spring and summer.


what college you plan on goin 2?
207. j2008
Well I see were talking about snow, well haha as hilarious as this is its true, We got snow in Tucson today! Very unexpected but awesome, only the second time in history that this has happened. T-storms to the north got stronger than they thought and started to pull cold air down from aloft as it moved south. Once it moved the metro it had dropped the snow level to the valley floor bringing in the shock of our lives. Also this was only the second time its rained the entire year. Just thought Id update you guys, this storm system is probably the one thats going to bring a severe outbreak in the SE and possible snow to the NE. Later all.
Big disturbance for February..
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


um, its always good news when it goes towards the average... good for the planet? unless youd rather it tank?


Not only are we NOT going to reduce fossil fuel consumption, but we are going to go drill holes in the permafrost looking for oil and gas so that we can burn it and get it into the atmosphere more efficiently.
Quoting SPLbeater:


I think i want to join the NWS in Raleigh.

OU has the Storm Prediction Center. :)
Quoting RTSplayer:


Not only are we NOT going to reduce fossil fuel consumption, but we are going to go drill holes in the permafrost looking for oil and gas so that we can burn it and get it into the atmosphere more efficiently.


do you practice political and climate change argueing for fun?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

OU has the Storm Prediction Center. :)


yeah, i knew that after i read Reed Timmers' book. that is a good book....have you read it yet?
Quoting SPLbeater:


yeah, i knew that after i read Reed Timmers' book. that is a good book....have you read it yet?

Never heard any of his books before.
Quoting j2008:
Well I see were talking about snow, well haha as hilarious as this is its true, We got snow in Tucson today! Very unexpected but awesome, only the second time in history that this has happened. T-storms to the north got stronger than they thought and started to pull cold air down from aloft as it moved south. Once it moved the metro it had dropped the snow level to the valley floor bringing in the shock of our lives. Also this was only the second time its rained the entire year. Just thought Id update you guys, this storm system is probably the one thats going to bring a severe outbreak in the SE and possible snow to the NE. Later all.
But it snows in Tucson almost every winter, does it not? It's true that accumulations are rare, and heavy accumulations are rarer still. But there have been some big snowfalls there: 6.4" on 11/16/58; 6.8" on 12/7/71; 3" on 12/25/87; an inch on 1/21/07, and so on...

Still, though, today's snow was one of the rare ones, with 1" or less in and around the city (but 3" at Summerhaven).
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Never heard any of his books before.


oh my.....you are missing out!! Reed Timer: Into The Storm

Link
Quoting SPLbeater:


oh my.....you are missing out!! Reed Timer: Into The Storm

Link

Why would I need to read the book? I can just watch all of his videos on YouTube. :P
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
This is good news as well
As someone else noted above, it's very low, and hat's definitely not a good thing. Too, Arctic Sea ice area--a more accurate measurement than extent--is at a record low for the date:

Uh-oh
Quoting Neapolitan:
As someone else noted above, it's very low, and hat's definitely not a good thing. Too, Arctic Sea ice area--a more accurate measurement than extent--is at a record low for the date:

Uh-oh


It isn't that much lower than 2011 and 2007....
Forgot to share Irene's satellite loop last night.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


It isn't that much lower than 2011 and 2007....


Which is exactly why it is bad. Those years were not good ice years.
221. j2008
Quoting Neapolitan:
But it snows in Tucson almost every winter, does it not? It's true that accumulations are rare, and heavy accumulations are rarer still. But there have been some big snowfalls there: 6.4" on 11/16/58; 6.8" on 12/7/71; 3" on 12/25/87; an inch on 1/21/07, and so on...

Still, though, today's snow was one of the rare ones, with 1" or less in and around the city (but 3" at Summerhaven).
No, most winters it doesnt, about every 4 years we get something, the higher elevation suburbs get snow almost every year but not the city itself, I remember the 07 snow very well, although last year we got snow also. 2 years in a row is very weird, of course last year we got much more, nearly 2-3 inches out here.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


It isn't that much lower than 2011 and 2007....


No it isn't. But those are the two worst years in current history.

If you look at the slope of the other lines you can see that we're about at the end of the ice growth season, not much extend, area or volume builds past mid-February.

On the Atlantic side of the Arctic there has been significantly less freezing than normal. And we've got some data that suggests that there is a large flow of warm Atlantic water keeping the ice from forming. Furthermore, a good deal of the Pacific side ice that's formed this year is outside the Central Arctic and is likely to melt out fairly quickly.

There's no way to predict the freezing of ice for the remaining couple of months with any certainty. But if things continue as they have been going we're going to enter the 2012 melt season with large areas of thin ice and lots of ice left vulnerable to melting Pacific water. That can mean lots less albedo and lots more Sun-warmed water. Unless we have some very strange weather we're likely to see significant lower ice levels by the Fall.

If we don't get significant freezing in the remainder of the year and next winter is "normal" then a Summer/Fall 2013 melt out could be in our future.

The news for Arctic sea ice just keeps on getting worse. We're seeing nothing in the cards that could slow the melt path we're on.

Don't forget, we're apparently at the bottom of the ~11 year solar cycle. The Sun is probably going to be contributing more heat over the next few years than it has over the last few.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


It isn't that much lower than 2011 and 2007....
As of yesterday--the last day numbers were available--2012 Arctic Sea ice area is 178,979 kms less than it was on the same date last year, and 288,552 kms less than it was on the same date in 2007. That difference may seem like "not that much lower", but it is: the difference between last year and this is roughly equal to the area of Missouri, and the difference between 2007 and this year is greater than the area of Nevada.

The summer ice will be gone in summer within the next five years or so. That's a pretty sobering assessment.
Quoting Neapolitan:
As of yesterday--the last day numbers were available--2012 Arctic Sea ice area is 178,979 kms less than it was on the same date last year, and 288,552 kms less than it was on the same date in 2007. That difference may seem like "not that much lower", but it is: the difference between last year and this is roughly equal to the area of Missouri, and the difference between 2007 and this year is greater than the area of Nevada.

The summer ice will be gone in summer within the next five years or so. That's a pretty sobering assessment.


Oh wow maybe that is a lot.....
The tropical weather in Hawaii is being altered by the US gov. by their geoengineering programs(chemtrails are real) as admitted by .gov /NASA and other sources. Wunderground and other weather sites and tv meadia reports on uv,ozone, etc. Can wu please report the aluminium/barium/stronium/acidity falling out of the sky and impacting out precip, crops and health? Why not post with all US local uv/ozone postings? uv's/ozone kills. Please report another killer.
Quoting bappit:

Vikings! The berserkers were really bad.


OK, gotcha. My tired brain translated the yarn as contraband :) They aren't spinning plutonium yet, so I think I'm safe.
Quoting SPLbeater:


do you practice political and climate change argueing for fun?


No.

I'm complicated.

D.C in the house.....
Quoting RTSplayer:


No.

I'm complicated.



i can tell. I have observed you starting random political debates. AND climate change, lets not forget about that one... :)
Quoting washingtonian115:
D.C in the house.....


WAZZUP WASHINGTONIAN!
Quoting SPLbeater:


WAZZUP WASHINGTONIAN!
Our local area meteorologist are seeing the models but are uncertain about the "snow" event on Sunday.Sue Palka may try to hype the situation.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Forgot to share Irene's satellite loop last night.


I had almost forgotten how BIG Irene was... I still can't even imagine what would've happen if that storm had found its way into the GOMEX
Also: I wrote a blog on Giovanna, Jasmine, and 13S, if anyone's interested
TC Jasmine 003200Z 15 Feb

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1000.8mb/ 35.0kt

Raw T# 1.5
Adj T# 1.7
Final T# 2.0

Scene Type: SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG)
-------------------------------------------------
TC Giovanna 003000Z 15 Feb

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 979.9mb/ 65.0kt

Raw T# 3.6
Adj T# 3.6
Final T# 3.6

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
------------------------------------------------- --
TC 13S 003000Z 15 Feb

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 992.3mb/ 59.0kt

Raw T# 3.8
Adj T# 3.8
Final T# 3.7

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
------------------------------------------------- --
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I had almost forgotten how BIG Irene was... I still can't even imagine what would've happen if that storm had found its way into the GOMEX
Also: I wrote a blog on Giovanna, Jasmine, and 13S, if anyone's interested
So your the new blogger that introduced yourself earlier.Hello from D.C.
Quoting washingtonian115:
So your the new blogger that introduced yourself earlier.Hello from D.C.

Hey Washingtonian! Yes, I am that blogger :)
Quoting SPLbeater:


what college you plan on goin 2?


Maybe MIT or I'll actually study weather and go to a college with a meteorology program
Quoting washingtonian115:
Our local area meteorologist are seeing the models but are uncertain about the "snow" event on Sunday.Sue Palka may try to hype the situation.


i aint seen nothin bout snow round me, aint checked GFS. NWS says NO for me :D
Quoting hydrus:
Seems like all the models show this gulf low.GFS.CMC.Euro.


NWS here notes that residents should keep a close eye on a possible severe weather event this upcoming Saturday/Sunday time frame as a result of that low that all models are showing right now.


We haven't had a single system that's really brought any significant severe threat since October which is really weird so eventually something has to give.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Maybe MIT or I'll actually study weather and go to a college with a meteorology program


:D

NCSU for me!!
I visited DC, but would hate to live there, atlanta is so much better
No way im going anywhere close to home, we dont have any really good colleges any way, its eith Georgia Tech, or UGA.

Time to go to bed. TTYL
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
No way im going anywhere close to home, we dont have any really good colleges any way, its eith Georgia Tech, or UGA.

Time to go to bed. TTYL


its 8:30?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Hey Washingtonian! Yes, I am that blogger :)
It's always nice to have young people get into weather.It's a very nice subject to get into yet confusing at the same time xD.What ever you do please stay out of trouble on this site....you don't want people down your throat because as soon as you slip up dun dun duuuun their waiting.LOl.Enjoy your time on the blog here :).
Quoting washingtonian115:
Our local area meteorologist are seeing the models but are uncertain about the "snow" event on Sunday.Sue Palka may try to hype the situation.


I see the snow, I think the hype might actually be warranted this time.... It could be a decent sized event (6+ inches) if it happens!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I visited DC, but would hate to live there, atlanta is so much better
Are yo- are you insulting my city???.WELL I VISITED ATLANTA AND AIN'T NOTHING HOT ABOUT IT.IT'S PLAIN!!!
Quoting hydrus:
Seems like all the models show this gulf low.GFS.CMC.Euro.



Still not sure if we'll be seeing any weather out of that low here or not.

Saturday's forecast depends upon exactly where a low develops in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico. One model develops it just off the Upper Texas Coast which would bring a high rain chance while the other long-range model keeps it far off the coast which would leave Southeast Texas dry. At this point with split the difference until more data comes in. Saturday, mostly cloudy with a 50% coverage of rain southern sections. Lows in the upper 40s with highs in the upper 50s. Breezy north to northeasterly winds.
Quoting SPLbeater:


i can tell. I have observed you starting random political debates. AND climate change, lets not forget about that one... :)


You've no idea how many posts I start, and gt a few paragraphs typed, and then just delete it without posting.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


I see the snow, I think the hype might actually be warranted this time.... It could be a decent sized event (6+ inches) if it happens!
This situation reminds me of the Valintines day storm in 2007.It could be rain or snow depending on what track it takes.I want it to be rain...This time around however.
Quoting washingtonian115:
This situation reminds me of the Valintines day storm in 2007.It could be rain or snow depending on what track it takes.I want it to be rain...This time around however.

That was a bad one. I remember I was up in Baltimore with my boyfriend visiting my parents. Living down in Florida for 3 years I almost forgot how to drive in the snow!! :p
Quoting KeyWestSun:

That was a bad one. I remember I was up in Baltimore with my boyfriend visiting my parents. Living down in Florida for 3 years I almost forgot how to drive in the snow!! :p
LOl.The snow trucks didn't get out because eveyone thought it was going to be another rain storm.That's why even a few days after the event streets/sidewalks were still icy.The kids stayed out of school for three days.
Quoting washingtonian115:
LOl.The snow trucks didn't get out because eveyone thought it was going to be another rain storm.That's why even a few days after the event streets/sidewalks were still icy.The kids stayed out of school for three days.

Wow three days is a treat. I never had anything like that growing up! :( And here I thought only Florida and the south completely shuts down after a snowstorm!!
Some adorable dogs on the Westminster Kennel club dog show. Oh man!
GMZ089-150330-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
330 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA SW TO 26N91W WILL
MOVE TO THE FAR NE GULF WED AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF N OF 26N THROUGH WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT...AND REACH FROM MISSISSIPPI TO NE MEXICO
THU...THEN STALL FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ FRI AND SAT.
LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NW GULF
SAT...THEN QUICKLY MOVE TO THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA LATE SAT
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SW TO 24N89W TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THE LOW WILL TRACK NE TO ACROSS THE SE U.S. ON SUN WITH COLD
FRONT FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 24N85W TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS
HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE FAR NW GULF.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Are yo- are you insulting my city???.WELL I VISITED ATLANTA AND AIN'T NOTHING HOT ABOUT IT.IT'S PLAIN!!!

Only thing hot about it is the weather. That's why they call it Hot Lanta. No I'm kidding. Atlanta is cool. They got the Falcons!
U.S. naval carrier group positioned closer to Iran
Posted on February 14, 2012


Link
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


its 8:30?


its a week day, school tomorrow...
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Only thing hot about it is the weather. That's why they call it Hot Lanta. No I'm kidding. Atlanta is cool. They got the Falcons!


i dont like the falcons because they are in same divison as my Saints.
Quoting sunlinepr:
U.S. naval carrier group positioned closer to Iran
Posted on February 14, 2012


Link


Being from a navy family, none of those ships are where anyone thinks they are.
How does Fukushima differ from Chernobyl?

Fukushima and Chernobyl compared (facts table): Link

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Being from a navy family, none of those ships are where anyone thinks they are.


For sure BBC won't publish the real locations.... But let them believe it.... (Iran)
255. sunlinepr 2:16 AM GMT on February 15, 2012 +0
U.S. naval carrier group positioned closer to Iran
Posted on February 14, 2012


Link
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 5648

GRAPHIC VIOLENCE GORE
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Wow three days is a treat. I never had anything like that growing up! :( And here I thought only Florida and the south completely shuts down after a snowstorm!!
We just don't have the type of tools per say to take care of big snow storms like say Chicago does.
Quoting washingtonian115:
LOl.The snow trucks didn't get out because eveyone thought it was going to be another rain storm.That's why even a few days after the event streets/sidewalks were still icy.The kids stayed out of school for three days.


NWS from noaa.gov site for washington d.c. has snow on sunday now!!!!
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Only thing hot about it is the weather. That's why they call it Hot Lanta. No I'm kidding. Atlanta is cool. They got the Falcons!
Their trying to turn Atlanta into the southern version of N.Y.Oh god no...
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


NWS from noaa.gov site for washington d.c. has snow on sunday now!!!!
Noooooo.My weekend plans are now going down hill.are you the one from spring feild VA?.


LOL the life of a weather geek...
Quoting WxGeekVA:


LOL the life of a weather geek...
lols

happy single's awareness day everyone!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Being from a navy family, none of those ships are where anyone thinks they are.


Does the Navy have any small, one-manned or remote controlled attack submarines?

Or is that classified?

You know, like submersible stealth bombers, or submersible war drone.

I know in WWII, the British experimented with several piloted torpedoes / midgit submarines in operation Source, which were fully submersible, in an attempt to sink the Tirpitz.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Their trying to turn Atlanta into the southern version of N.Y.Oh god no... Noooooo.My weekend plans are now going down hill.are you the one from spring feild VA?.


well im from wilmington, nc lived there for 25 years just moved up to washington 3 weeks ago!! miss wilmington but love D.C. so far
270. JLPR2
Quoting WxGeekVA:


LOL the life of a weather geek...


LOL! :\


>> UPDATE: M6.2 quake hits after M5.5 in nearly same location (SOURCE) <<
>> UPDATE II: Expert: M7.0 quake can cause Spent Fuel Pool No. 4 to collapse New study warns fault nearby Daiichi plant ipped open9 on 3/11; 70% chance of big quake this year (SOURCE) <<

Title: Earthquake Information
Source: Japan Meteorological Agency
Date: Feb 13, 2012



195,000,000 Bq/L of cesium detected in Unit No. 3 turbine building Basement is filled 10 feet deep with this highly radioactive water No testing for strontium

Published: February 13th, 2012 at 11:22 pm ET
By ENENews

Title: Result of nuclide analysis of the accumulated water on the basement of Turbine Building 3U and 4U Fukushima Daiichi NPS
Source: Tepco
Date: Feb 13, 2012

Reactor No. 3 Turbine Building

Cs-134 @ 85,000 Bq/cm3
Cs-137 @ 110,000 Bq/cm3

Total Cesium @ 195,000 Bq/cm3 or 195 million Bq/liter

Water depth in building is 3.012 meters

Link
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #24
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
12:00 PM FST February 15 2012
===================================

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP IS NOW CANCELLED

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (987 hPa) located at 21.3S 176.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on hourly GMS imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
65 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
65 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization remains same in past 6 hours. Convection past 12 hours. System lies just to the south of an upper ridge axis. Associated vertical shear remains minimal. Sea surface temperature around 28C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap on log10 spiral, yielding DT=2.0, PT=2.0 and MET=2.0, final Dvorak based on dT. CI is based on constraints of not being
More than 1.O t-number higher than DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southwest movement with no further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 22.1S 177.1W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 23.0S 177.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 25.0S 177.2W - 35 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20112012
4:00 AM RET February 15 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10 (1001 hPa) located at 14.7S 86.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 15.6S 83.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.9S 81.3E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.2S 77.0E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 16.5S 74.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

It is difficult to localize the low level circulation center at this time, but a small cluster persists over the estimated center of the system that seems to undergo a moderate east-northeasterly wind shear. 1554 PM UTC ASCAT swath is not centered but we can see that low level clockwise circulation is weak and weakly extended.

System might continue to track rapidly then more slowly west southwestward on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures existing in the south.

Available numerical weather prediction models poorly analyze this low and do not forecast significant deepening within the next few days despite rather good environmental conditions in the upper level. Very poor equatorward low level inflow seems to be the missing ingredient for intensification. Otherwise a moderate easterly to north-easterly vertical wind shear persists more or less throughout the forecast period.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Quoting SPLbeater:


i dont like the falcons because they are in same divison as my Saints.

Boo
:p
Quoting washingtonian115:
We just don't have the type of tools per say to take care of big snow storms like say Chicago does.

So true ain't it
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
PERTURBATION TROPICALE, FORMER GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 15 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance, Former Giovanna (996 hPa) located at 21.3S 43.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 22.5S 41.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 23.4S 39.9E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 24.5S 37.5E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 25.1S 35.3E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================

Ex-giovanna seems to go along the western coast of Madagascar by tracking south-westward, but now low level circulation center is difficult to localize (over sea near Andranopasy). Deep convection is developing over sea northwest of the system. System is expected to keep on tracking southwestward within the next 24-36 hours on the northwestern edge of low to mid-level high pressures centered in the south of Réunion Island. It might rapidly intensify with good environmental conditions (weak vertical wind shear, ocean heat content very high and good low level inflow).

Numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the track during the next 36 hours. Beyond, they are discrepancies. Some numerical weather prediction models forecast a westward track, towards the Mozambique coast. Others forecast a west-southwestward track and even a southeastward recurve on Saturday according to ECMWF numerical weather prediction model. Present RSMC official forecast track is close to ECMWF model. However, ECMWF ensemble forecast is also highly dispersed at this hour.

This important differences seem to be product by intensity forecasts that are more or less strong by different models and so a steering flow located at more or less high levels (low level high pressures in the south of system according to westward tracks). Forecast uncertainty is important at 48 hours and beyond.

On Saturday, landfall over Mozambique is not excluded. But now, that is not the RSMC option for official forecast track.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TD GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..


And another funny hurricane pic....
Title: Governor: Why no arrests over crisis?
Source: Japan Times
Date: Feb. 15, 2012

Saitama Gov. Kiyoshi Ueda wants to see Tokyo Electric Power Co. held criminally responsible for the Fukushima nuclear crisis.

At a regular news conference, he sharply criticized the utility and questioned why nobody in Tepco has been arrested.

Gov. Ueda:

Tepco has caused this big trouble to everyone under the sun and nobody has been arrested. I want to ask, Doesnt anyone (in Tepco) want to turn themselves in?
Some people would be arrested if gas tanks explode or a fire breaks out in a department store



Posted by Mochizuki on February 14th,
The Minamisoma blogger wrote about reactor 2.

She comments reactor2 is actually being heated.


Now I talked on the phone with a nuclear worker and a former nuclear worker.

In short, if it goes up to 600~700, reactor 2 will explode.

News said the heating gauge showed over 300

However, reactor 2 is not under control.

What we must worry about is not the explosion of reactor2.

The Fukushima worker talked, if reactor2 keeps being heated, it gets exploded and it will cause explosion of reactor 1, 3 and 4.

The former Fukushima worker had lots of license as an engineer.
He told the managers that he wants to quit but they didnt even listen to him.

Moreover, the manager called other managers and tried to persuade him.

They put 1.6 million yen on the table and said get back to work.

He didnt take it and said no.

One of the managers was still sane, said if you want to quit, just leave, you are still young.

He was fired immediately after that.

The former worker wasn%u2019t even paid for the last month.

The managers only said to him, dont need to come back as of tomorrow.

His monthly salary was only 180,000JPY after tax.

They are not paid much as people think.

From April to June, 200 workers died in total.

They died for various reasons such as forgetting to change the filter of the mask etc..

In a break time, they smoked,

stood up to get back to work,

found someone still sitting and said hello to find him dead..

but those people are not sent back to the families.

Because the dead bodies are too irradiated.

Put in concrete, sent to J-village, and no one knows how they are treated after that.

They are working to death to stop reactor2 getting heated more.

We must respect dead man
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


well im from wilmington, nc lived there for 25 years just moved up to washington 3 weeks ago!! miss wilmington but love D.C. so far
I hope you enjoy yourself up here.It's a great city if you know where the good spots are.Like 14th street.George town,China town(just don't go their Fridays it's god awful crowded).The water front is also a nice place to go take a walk or a jog.So is Rock creek park.BTW it's bigger than central park for those that don't know.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Does the Navy have any small, one-manned or remote controlled attack submarines?

Or is that classified?

You know, like submersible stealth bombers, or submersible war drone.

I know in WWII, the British experimented with several piloted torpedoes / midgit submarines in operation Source, which were fully submersible, in an attempt to sink the Tirpitz.


LOL, I could ask my dad, but his answer to all classified things is "I cannot confirm or deny the exsistence of yada yada yada."
All this rain in South Central Texas but our Lakes are still dry and we are still in Stage 3 Water restrictions, Unreal I hate droughts.
One more before I log off for the night:

Quoting TomTaylor:
lols

happy single's awareness day everyone!
Well I'm no where near single.Got a husband and six kids to back that up.Hope you single gentlemen and Ladies(No pun intended to the song) enjoy being single while it still last.Because once your married you have to stay commited.Not hard if you really love the person....
Quoting WxGeekVA:
One more before I log off for the night:


Yeah, the models were crazy with Lee. All over the place...
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


well im from wilmington, nc lived there for 25 years just moved up to washington 3 weeks ago!! miss wilmington but love D.C. so far

I live in Rocky Point.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well I'm no where near single.Got a husband and six kids to back that up.Hope you single gentlemen and Ladies(No pun intended to the song) enjoy being single while it still last.Because once your married you have to stay commited.Not hard if you really love the person....
Well good for you, hope everything is well (and stays well) with your family
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I live in Rocky Point.


cool, i used to go hunting up that way some off hwy 53 at my cousins house, love the country!!! big city now though, OH LAWD!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I live in Rocky Point.


are there alot of rocks
Look at the ridge in the atlantic..the 1020mb line goes from africa to Florida. be thankful it isnt September!
Quoting SPLbeater:


are there alot of rocks

Nope, there's a lot of trees and deer though. :P
Quoting SPLbeater:


are there alot of rocks


haha its more like a flat swampy area, its in southeastern n.c. no rocks here, beside the crack rock!! in and around 17th street wilmington
Quoting TomTaylor:
Well good for you, hope everything is well (and stays well) with your family
Everything is really good so far.I hope it last for a life time!
282:

Saved.

That's funny as it gets.
Quoting RTSplayer:
282:

Saved.

That's funny as it gets.

You sure?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You sure?



That's hilarious.

8 hurricane, 3 TS, and 3 Invest simultaneously...in December!

I wonder what the odds of that happening are?

LOL.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You sure?

Oh my....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You sure?




That's my new desktop background!
Quoting sunlinepr:
Title: Governor: Why no arrests over crisis?
Source: Japan Times
Date: Feb. 15, 2012

Saitama Gov. Kiyoshi Ueda wants to see Tokyo Electric Power Co. held criminally responsible for the Fukushima nuclear crisis.

At a regular news conference, he sharply criticized the utility and questioned why nobody in Tepco has been arrested.

Gov. Ueda:

Tepco has caused this big trouble to everyone under the sun and nobody has been arrested. I want to ask, Doesnt anyone (in Tepco) want to turn themselves in?
Some people would be arrested if gas tanks explode or a fire breaks out in a department store



Posted by Mochizuki on February 14th,
The Minamisoma blogger wrote about reactor 2.

She comments reactor2 is actually being heated.


Now I talked on the phone with a nuclear worker and a former nuclear worker.

In short, if it goes up to 600~700, reactor 2 will explode.

News said the heating gauge showed over 300

However, reactor 2 is not under control.

What we must worry about is not the explosion of reactor2.

The Fukushima worker talked, if reactor2 keeps being heated, it gets exploded and it will cause explosion of reactor 1, 3 and 4.

The former Fukushima worker had lots of license as an engineer.
He told the managers that he wants to quit but they didnt even listen to him.

Moreover, the manager called other managers and tried to persuade him.

They put 1.6 million yen on the table and said get back to work.

He didnt take it and said no.

One of the managers was still sane, said if you want to quit, just leave, you are still young.

He was fired immediately after that.

The former worker wasn%u2019t even paid for the last month.

The managers only said to him, dont need to come back as of tomorrow.

His monthly salary was only 180,000JPY after tax.

They are not paid much as people think.

From April to June, 200 workers died in total.

They died for various reasons such as forgetting to change the filter of the mask etc..

In a break time, they smoked,

stood up to get back to work,

found someone still sitting and said hello to find him dead..

but those people are not sent back to the families.

Because the dead bodies are too irradiated.

Put in concrete, sent to J-village, and no one knows how they are treated after that.

They are working to death to stop reactor2 getting heated more.

We must respect dead man

Sources? This is hearsay, rumor, unsubstantiated.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You sure?



Tropics going wild in comment 294.

Map reminds me of the "spotted atrocious"
Quoting WxGeekVA:
One more before I log off for the night:


Comment 282

I guess that's what they call the spaghetti models? ;)
0z GFS running, cmon snowstorm!
Quoting bappit:

Sources? This is hearsay, rumor, unsubstantiated.


First post is from JapanTimes.... Looking for the 2nd one...

Link

Link
Quoting WxGeekVA:



That's my new desktop background!


this is my background


i will never forget


Magnitude
6.0
Date-Time
Wednesday, February 15, 2012 at 03:31:20 UTC
Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 07:31:20 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
43.536°N, 127.381°W
Depth
10 km (6.2 miles)
Region
OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
Distances
245 km (152 miles) WNW (282°) from Bandon, OR
249 km (155 miles) W (276°) from Barview, OR
250 km (155 miles) WNW (291°) from Port Orford, OR
327 km (203 miles) NW (308°) from Crescent City, CA
436 km (271 miles) WSW (241°) from Portland, OR
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 19.7 km (12.2 miles); depth +/- 6.2 km (3.9 miles)
Parameters
NST=205, Nph=211, Dmin=282.8 km, Rmss=1.15 sec, Gp=180°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usb00080ib
To: U.S. West Coast, Alaska, and British Columbia coastal regions
From: NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
Subject: Tsunami Information Statement issued 02/14/2012 at 7:34PM PST

At 7:31 PM Pacific Standard Time on February 14, an earthquake with preliminary magnitude 5.9 occurred off the coast of Oregon .

The magnitude is such that a tsunami IS NOT EXPECTED. This will be the only WCATWC message issued for this event.

The location and magnitude are based on preliminary information. Further information will be issued by the United States Geological Survey or the appropriate regional seismic network.
Good catch VAbeachhurricanes. Better offshore than on!
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Good catch VAbeachhurricanes. Better offshore than on!


For real, the amount of moderate earthquakes is a little unsettling.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


For real, the amount of moderate earthquakes is a little unsettling.


It is..... IF a big one happens soon then it would be confirmation of impending DOOM.
A six is strong enough to be ugly if under a town or city on land. Not big enough to make a tsunami. Best where it is.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
A six is strong enough to be ugly if under a town or city on land. Not big enough to make a tsunami. Best where it is.


Ecspecially a shallow 6, make it a 6.5 and put it under a heavily populated area and there are major problems.
Quoting bappit:

Sources? This is hearsay, rumor, unsubstantiated.


Although is sounds exagerated or distorted, 2nd post allegations, can be cross verified in enenews.com, fairewinds.com, fukushima-dairy.com, japan times.com and many other sites looking to expose the hidden truth of that tragic accident... Data in the following video comes from farmers, bloggers, workers NOT from the government....

Link

Time will expose the thruth... in the form of cancers, deaths and long term nuclear contamination....

What about some lung particles from Seattle and Boston? Anyhow that's a public health issue, not a personal health issue.....

Quoting WxGeekVA:


It is..... IF a big one happens soon then it would be confirmation of impending DOOM.


not DOOM...more likely a dormant volcano maybe, just maybe waking up....:D
well, goodnight all. i shall return in de mornin!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


For real, the amount of moderate earthquakes is a little unsettling.
Bunch of little uns may stave off big un.

Plates are moving so something has to give. A small steady shift is better than no motion.
Evening everyone, I hope everyone's had a good Valentine's Day.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You sure?



LOOOOL.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why would I need to read the book? I can just watch all of his videos on YouTube. :P
Reading is sooo 20th century!
Quoting caneswatch:
Evening everyone, I hope everyone's had a good Valentine's Day.


Sup canes hows it goin?
MY GOD PLEASE:


303:

Hydrogen explosion my rear.

That video is a disaster.

The levels of cesium that are in those towns would take about 100 years to decay down to the U.S. nuke plant standards he cited, neglecting the fact that some of it is probably getting washed away into rivers and streams and into the ocean anyway.
One big Nor'easter to finish off the winter season.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:

Comment 282

I guess that's what they call the spaghetti models? ;)
No this is a spaghetti model:

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Sup canes hows it goin?


Goin' great dude, how about you?
Quoting caneswatch:


Goin' great dude, how about you?


Doin some astrophysics homework, but besides that im wonderful haha
Quoting RTSplayer:
303:

Hydrogen explosion my rear.

That video is a disaster.

The levels of cesium that are in those towns would take about 100 years to decay down to the U.S. nuke plant standards he cited, neglecting the fact that some of it is probably getting washed away into rivers and streams and into the ocean anyway.


Very true, they always tried to sell the idea and make believe that it was a hydrogen explosion.... (no 2) Bs... This is catastrophic and there is a real high posibility now that the next quake will collapse what is left....

Study warns of another nuclear disaster at Fukushima Daiichi — Likely to be directly disturbed by large quakes (Full Paper)

Link
Quoting SPLbeater:


this is my background


i will never forget


This is mine...LOL We ARE a bunch of weather nerds! :D

I'm a little worried about this possible storm. It figures. For the first time in about 20 years my family is trying to get together, we want to celebrate my father's 85th bday. And it's important that everyone get here because he's been given a very poor prognosis of 2-3 months (that was a month ago).

Problem is everyone has to get here to fl. I have two brothers planning on driving down leaving Boston late Tuesday night / early Wednesday morning. And another flying out of Boston Wednesday morning.

I can't figure out the timing based on our local forcast. Maybe it's not a problem. If the system is supposed to come through FL on Saturday I guess it will be over and done with before they travel????

I've heard before that fracking may cause some earthquakes. Has anybody heard anything like that?
Quoting Patrap:
0.92 microSv/h from St.Louis
Posted by Mochizuki on February 14th, 2012 No Comments

They are concerned that plume flies from Japan to America.

Though it is not sure that it's from Japan, they measured 3.7 times higher level of radiation from snow in St. Louis than usual on 2/13/2012.


Selection of automated

news feeds from various alternative websites

covering the Fukushima / nuclear topics.


Like post 312 video stated "In the US it is going to be a public health issue, meaning that it is unknown right now, who's going to be affected... Time will tell... statistics will show the increase in cancer and deaths as time goes by....

Thanks for that LINK....

Quoting RMM34667:
I'm a little worried about this possible storm. It figures. For the first time in about 20 years my family is trying to get together, we want to celebrate my father's 85th bday. And it's important that everyone get here because he's been given a very poor prognosis of 2-3 months (that was a month ago).

Problem is everyone has to get here to fl. I have two brothers planning on driving down leaving Boston late Tuesday night / early Wednesday morning. And another flying out of Boston Wednesday morning.

I can't figure out the timing based on our local forcast. Maybe it's not a problem. If the system is supposed to come through FL on Saturday I guess it will be over and done with before they travel????



Should be out of there by then RMM, that storm is supposed to hit Florida Saturday and leave Maine by Monday so you should be fine, airports are usually good about clearing out after a day. Plus its only one model run so anything could change, but for now it still looks good.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
One big Nor'easter to finish off the winter season.

Nooooooooooooo.MY GOD NO!!!!!!!!.Sue Palka has not inserted that storm inside the forecast yet.She said It'll be nothing but a rain event.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nooooooooooooo.MY GOD NO!!!!!!!!.Sue Palka has not inserted that storm inside the forecast yet.She said It'll be nothing but a rain event.


Wish against and you shall receive.
The Links below are relevant if not the video.



This stuff matters. Learn more Dismiss

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Wish against and you shall receive.
Why does this always happen to me.It reminds me of hurricane Earl.I tried to go to VA beach that weekend but was forced to cancle plans.Instead I went to Six Flags with the kids.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Why does this always happen to me.It reminds me of hurricane Earl.I tried to go to VA beach that weekend but was forced to cancle plans.Instead I went to Six Flags with the kids.


Shoulda came down, that was a 70's and cloudy day! was a beautiful day!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You sure?

lol nice one
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20112012
10:00 AM RET February 15 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10 (1000 hPa) located at 14.5S 84.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
20 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 14.8S 82.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.2S 80.0E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 15.5S 77.0E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 15.7S 74.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

The system is a small size one, with a fluctuating structure shows temporally a banding pattern on the SSMIS data of 2114 PM UTC. The 1554 PM UTC ASCAT swath is not centered but we can see that low level clockwise circulation can be about 30 knots.

The low level environment is not favorable, with a very poor polar inflow and quite not existing monsoon flow, and despite of quite correct upper level conditions during the next 24 to 36 hours with a good polar outflow, intensification may remain slow. Beyond this hour, the increasing vertical wind shear should limit the development of the system.

System might continue to track rapidly then more slowly west southwestward on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures rebuilding in the south.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 15 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Giovanna (996 hPa) located at 22.4S 42.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 16 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
20 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 23.6S 41.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 24.2S 40.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 24.7S 39.9E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.2S 38.0E - 75 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================

Ex-Giovanna begins to move away from the western coast of Madagascar by tracking southwestward. low level circulation center is now visible on satellite imagery. Convection is organized into banding pattern.

System is expected to keep on tracking southwestward within the next 24-36 hours on the northwestern edge of low to mid-level high pressures centered in the south of Réunion island. It might rapidly intensify with good environmental conditions (weak vertical wind shear, ocean heat content very high and good low level inflow).

Numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the track during the next 36 hours. Beyond, they are discrepancies. Some numerical weather prediction models forecast a westward track, or even northwestward, towards the Mozambique coast. Others forecast a west southwestward track and even a eastward recurve on Saturday according to ECMWF numerical weather prediction model. Present RSMC official forecast track is close to ECMWF model. However, ECMWF ensemble forecast is also highly dispersed at this hour.

This important differences seem to be product by intensity forecasts that are more or less strong by different models and so a steering flow located at more or less high levels (low level high pressures in the south of system according to westward tracks). Forecast uncertainty is important at 48 hours and beyond.

On Saturday, landfall over Mozambique is not excluded. But now, that is not the RSMC option for official forecast track.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TD GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #26
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
18:00 PM FST February 15 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (990 hPa) located at 21.3S 177.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 2 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS imagery and peripheral surface reports

Gale Force Winds
==================
70 NM in the eastern semi-circle
60 NM in the southwestern quadrant
40 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Organization has decreased slightly in past 24 hours. Low level circulation was partially exposed few hours ago but is now under dense overcast. Convection remains persistent. System lies just to the south of an upper ridge axis with good divergence aloft. Vertical shear remains low. Sea surface temperatures around 27C.

Dvorak analysis based on central dense overcast pattern with irregular edge approximately 90 nautical miles diameter, Yielding DT=3.0, PTt=3.0 and MET=3.0, final Dvorak based on DT. However, due to final Dvorak constraints and past 6 hour final Dvorak being 2.0, current final Dvorak will be 2.5,

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/S1.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a south southwest movement with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 22.2S 177.7W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 23.2S 177.9W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 25.0S 177.2W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
One big Nor'easter to finish off the winter season.




Snow lover says WOOT!!!!!
I just love how nor'easters start right by GA.
Could snow in the Southern Appalachians though!
B.S. I read 12.2 CPM on my Geiger counter. Normal background.

Quoting sunlinepr:


Like post 312 video stated "In the US it is going to be a public health issue, meaning that it is unknown right now, who's going to be affected... Time will tell... statistics will show the increase in cancer and deaths as time goes by....

Thanks for that LINK....

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
0z GFS running, cmon snowstorm!



Hey I have a snowplow business, very little snow, we call years like this thinning of the herd!

All those guys going out spending thousands thinking they will get rich, then no snow!
Glad I don't have to depend on snow money to survive!
The older I get the more I hate cold weather and snow.

Now I know why all of the old foggees go to warm climates in the winter!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Should be out of there by then RMM, that storm is supposed to hit Florida Saturday and leave Maine by Monday so you should be fine, airports are usually good about clearing out after a day. Plus its only one model run so anything could change, but for now it still looks good.


Thank you!
Quoting trunkmonkey:



Hey I have a snowplow business, very little snow, we call years like this thinning of the herd!

All those guys going out spending thousands thinking they will get rich, then no snow!
Glad I don't have to depend on snow money to survive!
The older I get the more I hate cold weather and snow.

Now I know why all of the old foggees go to warm climates in the winter!


Well I hope you get some snow, I've never seen more than 6 inches of the white stuff.
Quoting WxGeekVA:



Snow lover says WOOT!!!!!
The local meteorologist believes that it'll just be a wintery mix or rain event.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 15 2012
================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Giovanna (996 hPa) located at 23.4S 41.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
20 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 24.4S 40.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 24.9S 40.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.2S 39.4E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 25.8S 38.6E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Low level circulation center is now visible on satellite imagery. Convection is organized into banding pattern within a wide low level circulation, convection seems to have trouble rebuilding near the center. System is expected to keep on tracking south south-westward within the next 24 hours on the north-western edge of low to mid-level high pressures centered in the south of Réunion Island. It might rapidly intensify with good environmental conditions (weak vertical wind shear, ocean heat content very high and good low level inflow). Beyond 24 hours, a new mid-level high pressures rebuilds in the southwest of the system. The track beyond 36 hours is the result of the opposite effects of this two cells numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the track between 36 hours and 60 hours. Beyond, they are discrepancies. Some numerical weather prediction models forecast a westward track, or even northwestward, towards the Mozambique coast. Others forecast a west southwestward track and even a eastward recurve on Saturday according to ECMWF numerical weather prediction model. Present RSMC official forecast track is close to ECMWF model. However, ECMWF ensemble forecast is also highly dispersed at this tau. This important differences seem to be product by intensity forecasts that are more or less strong by different models and so a steering flow due to the opposite effects of this two cells, located at more or less high levels (low level high pressures in the south of system

According to westward tracks). Forecast uncertainty is important at tau 60 and beyond. On Sunday, landfall over Mozambique is not excluded. But now, that is not the RSMC option for official forecast track.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TD GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20112012
16:00 PM RET February 15 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10 (1000 hPa) located at 14.7S 84.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
20 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T 2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 14.7S 82.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.8S 80.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.2S 77.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 17.4S 74.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=======================

The system is a small size one, with a fluctuating structure shows now a small central dense overcast pattern.

The low level environment is not favorable, with a very poor polar inflow and quite not existing monsoon flow, and despite of quite correct upper level conditions during the next 24 to 36 hours with a good polar outflow, intensification may remain slow. Beyond this hour, the increasing vertical wind shear should limit the development of the system despite of the improving of both trades and monsoon flows.

System might continue to track west southwestward on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures rebuilding in the south.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
This was hilarious.On accuweather they had a post in the news section that said the different tracks of the future snow storm on Sunday.The people in the comments section were furious.Even one of the staff Alex Sosnowski had added negativity.They had to take it down and off the site.LOL.Way to go accuweather...
Word from Madagascar is trickling in, and the death toll is slowly creeping upward. Six people were reported killed in Andasibe alone, a small town roughly midway between the capital city of Antananarivo and the Indian Ocean. (Remember that after past disasters in Madagascar, it has been many days--sometimes weeks--before the outside world was able to hear the whole story).

In other disaster news, nearly 300 have been killed in Honduras after a fire broke out at an overcrowded prison.
Quoting TampaSpin:
LOCAL weatherguy says possible showers this weekend, no mention of a "storm' for the tampabay area as of yet
Quoting washingtonian115:
This was hilarious.On accuweather they had a post in the news section that said the different tracks of the future snow storm on Sunday.The people in the comments section were furious.Even one of the staff Alex Sosnowski had added negativity.They had to take it down and off the site.LOL.Way to go accuweather...


On accuweather nowadays, people don't believe them even when they are right.

And Beware another effect of global warming:

Lolland
(this does not mean i believe in global warming, you guys talk about it way too much.)
The Juan De Fuca plate is subducting
Quoting Patrap:


What's going on under north latitude 37.0 east longitude140.7 ?

362. Inyo
A Nor'easter? The way this year has been going I am pretty sure it will miss Vermont.

Speaking of Vermont, has anyone noticed anything *strange* in the Wunderground forecasts lately? They are reading about 10 degrees higher than anything else out there. I admit it's been a warm year but I don't think highs are going to be in the 50s next week. Either there's something wrong with the Wunderground forecasts or they are on to something no one else is.

I thought they came from the NWS.. what happened?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


On accuweather nowadays, people don't believe them even when they are right.

And Beware another effect of global warming:

Lolland
(this does not mean i believe in global warming, you guys talk about it way too much.)
Sure thing, Cat5 GeorgiaStormz (I previously erred in accusing you of being one of Cat5's hundred-plus sock puppets he's been using for many months to stir up trouble here; while you certainly fit the description of a climate contrarian, you're not him/her/it. Mea culpa.). ;-)
Canada Shuts Down LiDAR Research

Posted on February 14, 2012 by lidar

In what one scientist describes as “unthinkable” Environment Canada has shut off funding for atmospheric monitoring. Lidar network measurements of particle pollution layers from five Canadian stations no longer occur, and the website that was distributing this data has disappeared, according to a report in the Feb. 14 issue of the American Geophysical Union’s Eos newspaper.

“Canada is a bellwether for environmental change, not only for Arctic ozone depletion but for pollutants that stream to North America from other continents, ” said Anne Thompson, professor of meteorology, Penn State. “It is unthinkable that data collection is beginning to shut down in this vast country, in some cases at stations that started decades ago.”

I am sure government funding cuts are needed in Canada as they are here in the US, but this certainly seems like an area where the ROI is there. Perhaps there can be external funding sources to support this critical research work.

US will start shutting down all kinds of things soon I believe
361: 140 East Longitude is a long way from Juan de Fuca::
http://www.iris.edu/seismon/
Quoting RitaEvac:
Canada Shuts Down LiDAR Research

Posted on February 14, 2012 by lidar

In what one scientist describes as “unthinkable” Environment Canada has shut off funding for atmospheric monitoring. Lidar network measurements of particle pollution layers from five Canadian stations no longer occur, and the website that was distributing this data has disappeared, according to a report in the Feb. 14 issue of the American Geophysical Union’s Eos newspaper.

“Canada is a bellwether for environmental change, not only for Arctic ozone depletion but for pollutants that stream to North America from other continents, ” said Anne Thompson, professor of meteorology, Penn State. “It is unthinkable that data collection is beginning to shut down in this vast country, in some cases at stations that started decades ago.”

I am sure government funding cuts are needed in Canada as they are here in the US, but this certainly seems like an area where the ROI is there. Perhaps there can be external funding sources to support this critical research work.

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper is, unfortunately, infected with the same anti-science, anti-common sense, pro-Big Energy, profit-over-people disease that so many in America are. And, just as with many American pols, he's flip-flopped on environmental issues in tune with the ebb and flow of dollars. In 2007, for instance, he declared that Canada must act to curb GW; he now claims he was wrong and that it's all a socialist hoax. In the Harper mind, only the rapid mass extraction of his nation's filthy and destructive tar sands can make Canada economically viable.
Yes need coffee or new glasses
Quoting ycd0108:
361: 140 East Longitude is a long way from Juan de Fuca::
http://www.iris.edu/seismon/

Quoting RitaEvac:
2 Nations that are Bankrupt trying to call the shots

And

Syria blowing Pipelines


We should stay out of Syria.

There are too many opposing factions involved. It is many different terrorist groups, a terrorist government, and even if any of the civilians actually are "good guys" you can't know who's who. Of course, our naive government will try to "police" it all, which will just cost us trillions of dollars and thousands of lives for no good reason.


Best to use the good "free for all" strategy and let them fight it out.

If we don't like who wins, we can go bust them up later.
367:
Just north of 49th parallel. Well said Neo!
I never hear climate thugs like neapoliton, talk about he profit making Muslim countries, and how they use oil money to destroy America.
Now Iran is going to deprive Europe of Oil, the United States is on their list.

Energy cost have skyrocketed 82% since Obama came into office, Stimulus money by the billions have been squandered by companies who donated heavily into the Obama Campaign.
All I hear is about profits, for the evil capitolist.
I never hear one word about the corruption with the
alternative energy industry, who rape the taxpayer for funds and take huge amounts of MY money for bonuses, when the companies are not making a profit.
It is only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia falls and the western world will pay the price.
Just remember this you who trash the system.
Hitler had a group called the Brown shirts, they were loyal to him, did his dirty work for him, then the Night of the long knives came!
Be careful who you lie in bed with, because it can and will come back to bite you!
372. Inyo
Quoting RitaEvac:
US will start shutting down all kinds of things soon I believe


yes we will devour/atrophy ourselves until we all have the quality of life and life expectancy of a cockroach...

all so we don't have to raise taxes on the rich.
373. Inyo
and yes, we are just like hitler if we try to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. Hitler was all about that, wasn't he? Oh wait, no he wasn't...

google Godwin's Law please.
We could always have one of these this March...


On March 12, 1993, a newly formed cyclone moved into a low level baroclinic zone already in place over the Gulf of Mexico and began to rapidly intensify. The deepening cyclone turned northeastward (Fig 1.1) and the center of low pressure made landfall (Fig 1.2) in northwestern Florida during the early hours of March 13. An intense squall line (Fig 1.3) preceding a rapidly moving cold front raced across Florida with torrential downpours, wind gusts in excess of 40 m/s, 3-4 meter storm surges and 11 confirmed tornado touchdowns (Radar Loop (QT-800K)).

Recorded Wind Gusts
Mount Washington, NH
Franklin County, FL
Dry Tortugas, FL
Flattop Mountain, NC mph
144
110
109
101 m/s
64.4
49.1
48.7
45.2
Selected text from: Kocin et al. (1995)

Also by this time, widespread moderate to heavy snows extended from Alabama to New York (Fig 1.4), virtually paralyzing the eastern third of the country. An intense pressure gradient developed from the rapidly dropping central pressure (Fig 1.5), resulting in strong winds up and down the East Coast.

Record Sea Level Pressures
White Plains, NY
Philadelphia, PA
New York, (JFK)
Dover, DE Inches
28.28
28.43
28.43
28.45 mb
961.1
962.4
962.4
963.0
Selected text from: Kocin et al. (1995)

Fierce winds coupled with the heavy snow resulted in the cancellation of 25% of the nation's flights on Saturday and Sunday, interstates were impassable and millions were without power at one point in time or another during the passage of the storm.

Recorded Snowfall Totals
Mt. Mitchell, NC
Grantsville, MD
Snowshoe, WV
Syracuse, NY Inches
50
47
44
43 cm
128.0
120.3
112.6
110.1
Selected text from: NDSR (1995)

More than a foot of snow fell from Alabama into Maine, combined with record cold in the storm's aftermath. Seventy record lows were set on March 14, with an additional 75 that following morning.

Record Low Temperatures
Burlington, VT
Mount LeConte, TN
Asheville, NC
Birmingham, AL F
-12
-10
2
2 C
-24.4
-23.3
-16.7
-16.7
Selected text from: Kocin et al. (1995)

When all was said and done, 270 people were dead and total property damage estimates exceeded $3 billion. According to the National Disaster Survey Report (NDSR 1994), twenty-six states were affected, impacting the lives of nearly 100 million people, approximately half the nation's population (Satellite Loop (QT-6M)).
Quoting trunkmonkey:
I never hear climate thugs like neapoliton, talk about he profit making Muslim countries, and how they use oil money to destroy America.
Now Iran is going to deprive Europe of Oil, the United States is on their list.

Energy cost have skyrocketed 82% since Obama came into office, Stimulus money by the billions have been squandered by companies who donated heavily into the Obama Campaign.
All I hear is about profits, for the evil capitolist.
I never hear one word about the corruption with the
alternative energy industry, who rape the taxpayer for funds and take huge amounts of MY money for bonuses, when the companies are not making a profit.
It is only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia falls and the western world will pay the price.
Just remember this you who trash the system.
Hitler had a group called the Brown shirts, they were loyal to him, did his dirty work for him, then the Night of the long knives came!
Be careful who you lie in bed with, because it can and will come back to bite you!


Actually, gasoline prices are cheaper than they were at the end of the Bush regime.

Additionally, while Obama's budget has a huge deficit, you must remember that we are suffering from all the compounded INTEREST from the tax cuts on the insanely wealthy which President Bush made, as well as the failed Iraq and Afghanistan policies under Bush Jr, which his dear old Dad, Bush Senior, along with Reagan and Colin Powell left everyone, ever since going back to the first Iraq war.


You must also remember, that during America's most prosperous time period from the 50's and 60's, the taxes on the wealthy were far, far higher than they are now.


When you see a Tea Party or Replublican on television talking about tax cuts, don't be fooled, that won't help you.

And the idiot that was talking about the "999" plan by cutting income taxes to 9% but adding a federal sales tax? That would actually increase the total tax rate of the lower 50% of earners significantly. In fact, by the time you count state and local sales tax, normal people would be paying 31% tax, and the wealthy would be paying an average of about 15%, since they don't do much spending anyway the sales tax doesn't actually hit everything they have.

so in short, the Tea Party wants to rob from the poor and average and give to the rich! They don't want a middle class either, though they claim to.

They want it all for themselves.

Many of them claim to be Christians, and they are exactly the opposite of Christian social justice.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


On accuweather nowadays, people don't believe them even when they are right.

And Beware another effect of global warming:

Lolland
(this does not mean i believe in global warming, you guys talk about it way too much.)


i like that picture, lol
Quoting trunkmonkey:
I never hear climate thugs like neapoliton, talk about he profit making Muslim countries, and how they use oil money to destroy America.
Now Iran is going to deprive Europe of Oil, the United States is on their list.

Energy cost have skyrocketed 82% since Obama came into office, Stimulus money by the billions have been squandered by companies who donated heavily into the Obama Campaign.
All I hear is about profits, for the evil capitolist.
I never hear one word about the corruption with the
alternative energy industry, who rape the taxpayer for funds and take huge amounts of MY money for bonuses, when the companies are not making a profit.
It is only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia falls and the western world will pay the price.
Just remember this you who trash the system.
Hitler had a group called the Brown shirts, they were loyal to him, did his dirty work for him, then the Night of the long knives came!
Be careful who you lie in bed with, because it can and will come back to bite you!
What is a "climate thug"? If you mean someone who insists on his children and grandchildren having the right to live on a planet not made unlivable (or nearly so) due to the many negative effects of our outlandish fossil fuel consumption, then, okay, yes, I suppose I'm a "climate thug". I've certainly been called worse... ;-)

Anyway, you might be interested to know that the U.S. produced more oil in 2010 than it had since 2003, and even more was siphoned from the earth in 2011. You might also not know that Obama has--unfortunately--opened up millions of previously off-limits acres for oil and gas exploration. You might also like to know that mining for radioactive ores has risen every year under Obama. Ditto hydroelectric. Ditto solar. Ditto wind. Ditto biofuels. (Not to mention that he ended the war in Iraq which had been destabilizing energy prices.) So please explain to us how his policies have caused energy costs to "skyrocket". I'm dying to hear...

Anyway, it's plainly obvious to all that a rapid move away from fossil fuel consumption would be immensely helpful. Imagine how it would be to live in a world where our economies weren't subject to the whims of OPEC's oil sultans. Imagine how it would be to live in a world where smog-belching vehicles weren't clogging every city. Imagine how it would be to live on a planet that wasn't headed for certain catastrophe due to rapid warming.

How anyone--other than an oil company CEO, that is--could not want a part of that world is beyond me.
378. wxmod
Thailand today. 1000 miles from top to bottom of this MODIS satellite photo.

Quoting Inyo:


yes we will devour/atrophy ourselves until we all have the quality of life and life expectancy of a cockroach...

all so we don't have to raise taxes on the rich.
The banks are holding all that money like an addict to its last fix...Its ugly, and it will get worse for the poor and middle class.
5 day snowfall acc.
Meanwhile in Madagascar:

--A least 10 deaths are confirmed with the passage of Giovanna

--"From the East coast we received reports of damage and human loss caused by heavy winds and flooding.” said Dominic Stolarow, UNICEF’s Emergency Coordinator in Madagascar.

--According to an impromptu aerial survey, 70% of the buildings in Brickaville have been destroyed or damaged.

--...and 60% of the buildings in the district capital of Vatomandry have been destroyed or damaged.

--Up to a million people may have suffered some of the harshest effects of the storm.

--There's currently no communication with the hardest hit areas.
383. skook
How does the + comment work?
Damn you Neapolitan, you climate thug! How dare you continue to counter ignorance with FACTS.
Tsk tsk. ;)
Quoting skook:
How does the + comment work?

You create a bunch of sock puppet accounts to plus your own posts on some obscure blog on Wunderground then you can be as obnoxious as you like on the main blog and still be there even when everyone there gives you minuses.
Quoting bappit:

You create a bunch of sock puppet accounts to plus your own posts on some obscure blog on Wunderground then you can be as obnoxious as you like on the main blog and still be there even when everyone there gives you minuses.
True. FWIW, a large number of pluses on many of my comments on this blog and others over the past few days have been by the same four or five sock puppets: NaplesFLBreeze, EllenPettit, NaplesWebDesigner56, EPAsupporter56, Xvrus2000,and even the very tiresome GiovannaDatoli. For the record, those are not mine, though they were obviously intended to look that way. No, I've had and used this one handle and only this one handle the entire time I've been on WU. (The obsessed owner of those sock puppets has created literally dozens of them. Many have been banned, and for good reason. But the poor little dude just keeps making more. Sigh...)
387. MTWX
Storms are starting to fire up quite rapidly west and north of Houston... Link
So far the SPC is not concerned...yet.
Quoting Inyo:
A Nor'easter? The way this year has been going I am pretty sure it will miss Vermont.

Speaking of Vermont, has anyone noticed anything *strange* in the Wunderground forecasts lately? They are reading about 10 degrees higher than anything else out there. I admit it's been a warm year but I don't think highs are going to be in the 50s next week. Either there's something wrong with the Wunderground forecasts or they are on to something no one else is.

I thought they came from the NWS.. what happened?


WU has it's own bestforecast that gives the forecast for any weather station on WUnderground. Go to a city forecast on WU. Directly under the cities name on the left it says Bestforecast & a box. If it says on in that box that is the forecast your looking at. If you want to change back to NWS forecast click where it says on & it will change it right away to the NWS forecast, & the box will say off. You can click it back on. Bestcast has been more detailed many times. Really great if you're near a PWS in a microclimate that NWS forecast always seems a little off for or you want a forecast for your PWS. It seems to be intuitive & has improved lots since it was unleashed some months ago. I've been using it mostly for a while, still toggle some between the two. It handled the recent cold here better than the NWS, though I've seen it bomb a few..especially in the early days.
Quoting Skyepony:


WU has it's own bestforecast that gives the forecast for any weather station on WUnderground. Go to a city forecast on WU. Directly under the cities name on the left it says Bestforecast & a box. If it says on in that box that is the forecast your looking at. If you want to change back to NWS forecast click where it says on & it will change it right away to the NWS forecast, & the box will say off. You can click it back on. Bestcast has been more detailed many times. Really great if you're near a PWS in a microclimate that NWS forecast always seems a little off for or you want a forecast for your PWS. It seems to be intuitive & has improved lots since it was unleashed some months ago. I've been using it mostly for a while, still toggle some between the two. It handled the recent cold here better than the NWS, though I've seen it bomb a few..especially in the early days.
Funny you'd mention the Bestforecast; Dr. Masters wrote about it in his new blog entry.
Iran denies cutting off oil exports to six EU countries, heralds nuclear advances
Reuters Feb 15, 2012 – 8:06 AM ET | Last Updated: Feb 15, 2012 8:33 AM ET

Richard Johnson/National Post Graphics By Parisa Hafezi

TEHRAN — Iran’s Oil Ministry denied state media reports on the Islamic state stopping its crude exports to six European countries on Wednesday.

“We deny this report … If such a decision is made, it will be announced by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council,” a spokesman for the ministry told Reuters.

Iran’s English language Press TV had earlier said Tehran has stopped exporting oil to France, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Netherlands and Spain.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Funny you'd mention the Bestforecast; Dr. Masters wrote about it in his new blog entry.


Maybe they made bestforecast the default setting or something.. Guess it's past time to make the leap.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/15 /leak-exposes-heartland-institute-climate

Quote:
Heartland operates on a range of issues besides the environment. But discrediting the science of climate change remains a key mission. The group spends $300,000 on salaries for a team of experts working to undermine the findings of the UN climate body, the IPCC.

It plans to expand that this year by paying a former US department of energy employee to write an alternative curriculum for schoolchildren that will cast doubt on global warming. The fundraising plan notes the anonymous donor has set aside $100,000 for the project.