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Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

In the EPAC, Fernanda is born:

EP, 06, 2011081612, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1341W, 40, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 30, 30, 1009, 175, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FERNANDA, M,
2503. K8eCane
Quoting presslord:


All of the above....I sat for a few years on several of the relevant Boards, committees, etc...and gave up in frustration....'hope' is the predominant strategy here...




Press...Hopefully you wont have to get dressed again anytime soon. LOLOL
A quick stop in to post this new map which has piqued my interest.

This is the best surface convergence signature that 93L has ever had since coming off Africa to the best of my recollection. It could finally be making a serious attempt at producing a surface low and the circulation that goes with it. The 850,700 and 500 mb vorticity are all lined up nicely on the recent maps as well but no time to post them now.

If this trend continues this could mark a turning point in the history of this system. IMO the improved structure probably warrants an upgrade to 30% later today, assuming it holds.

We'll see. Back later.

One of the lessons I learned in Gustav is water. You think you have enough, you don't. We were under a boil ban for a month. Go buy more water now. It is a huge PITA to have to boil all that water. I now have the ability to purify 12,000 gallons and have 250 gallons of bottled water on hand. Sanitation is also something most don't think about. Sewage was out here after Gustav, if you want to stay or come back, you need to be prepared for everything. What FEMA suggests you have on hand is not enough.
2506. Squid28
Quoting presslord:
In my never to be humble opinion....Texas has done by far the best job of any state establishing meaningful disaster prep and response protocols....


Thats because there were a lot of very unhappy, desperate, and angry gun totin Texans looking for any public official after the Rita debacle... Myself included nothing like thirty eight hours to do a four hour drive
Quoting LPStormspotter:


not sure where you are. But here in Tx they have phone #'s to call if you need to leave but can't for whatever reason. Just saying!
Sorry guys. Posting from cell.. didn't realize it posted 3 times
Quoting K8eCane:




Press...Hopefully you wont have to get dressed again anytime soon. LOLOL


'bout time for me to start shopping for a new outfit ;-)
2509. Grothar
Quoting P451:


Given a man of your level of wisdom I would think you've had ample time to build up a vast extended family. There has to be at least one individual in there willing to take you in.

:)



In that case, then I guess you never met me. LOL I can be irritating sometimes, in case you haven't noticed.
2510. angiest
Shortly before Ike, I wrote up a blog discussing the types of things that would make me (living inland) evacuate for certain types of hurricanes.

If you live in a surge area, this doesn't apply to you, you should evacuate. Your local authorities will tell you when you should go based on forecast surge impact, and they are hopefully hedging for a stronger storm than forecast.

If you live inland, it is up to your own situation.
2511. Jax82


2512. jpsb
Quoting angiest:


Even on Bolivar, if you were in the third or fourth row back from the beach, you probably had a home standing. It may have needed to be gutted, but it was standing.
You might want check out this pic of bolivar after Ike. Not much left other then slabs.

http://texascoastgeology.com/passes/rollover.html
2513. MahFL
Quoting Nolehead:
The GFS animated Link: Something of interest.

that's not good at all...would be a lot of oil being slung around the al/fl beaches..


The oil is mostly on the seabed, 1000's of feet below the surface.
Quoting presslord:


I respectfully (and I mean that) disagree....all the preparation in the world wouldn't have meant anything to those on the Bolivar Penninsula after Ike...it's great as a general rule...but there are a lot of variables which can make it a gamble...
I agree. There are in my mind some places where pple just should not be during a storm. Beach front property and barrier islands are two of them. When Andrew passed through Eleuthera, people who experienced the worst trauma were those on some very tiny low-lying islands [Current Island] where the storm surge basically ran over the entire island. This is basically what happened to Bolivar. What may be surprising to many who don't live here is that the majority of the larger Bahamian islands are relatively "hilly". By that I mean the centre or "spine" of each island is 50+ feet above sea level. This means it is usually possible to get above the surge, which, as Pat constantly reminds us, is the most likely culprit in hurricane deaths. If you are in a place where you can't geographically get about 35 feet, my advice is get out. Over 35 ft, many "panic" evacuees could stay put and survive. I think for many evacuation becomes a way to avoid the aftermath of hurricanes, which is normally pretty horrible, to tell the truth, even if nothing "bad" happens to you and yours.
2515. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


So where's the "Big Picture"?
Quoting Neapolitan:
In the EPAC, Fernanda is born:

EP, 06, 2011081612, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1341W, 40, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 30, 30, 1009, 175, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FERNANDA, M,
That little blob poking its head out into the Bay of Campeche is what I'm focusing on. Almost a year ago, TS Hermine jumped into the GOM, RId and gave TX 15" of rain in one day. Not faced with the atl gauntlets, she was free to blow up and blow in. GOM doesn't look as moist as it probably was then, though.
Gro, we have the same here. The elderly/disabled (or a relitive) signs them up on a list and in the event of an evac. someone will pick them up. Not sure if the ones picking them up are volunteers who signed up to do it or if it a program that exists here but after Ivan there were alot of people who signed up for the program in our area. We live in an area with alot of older generation and we (the fire dept.) went on a sign-in drive to get them signed up for the program. It was a great success IMO for the safety of those that might not have it otherwise.
2518. Grothar
Quoting zoomiami:


Hey Press:

But isn't that one of those mandatory evacuation zones? I mean if you live where the water is only a few hundred feet in front and back, you know that there is going to be an issue.

Barrier islands such as the Florida Keys really have no choice but to evacuate, as there is not enough sustainable buildings for shelters, and its very easy to overwash the area.


This may sound heartless & its not meant that way. I live 30mins from there. And the newscast said leave or face certain death.
2520. MahFL
Quoting LADobeLady:
One of the lessons I learned in Gustav is water. You think you have enough, you don't. We were under a boil ban for a month. Go buy more water now. It is a huge PITA to have to boil all that water. I now have the ability to purify 12,000 gallons and have 250 gallons of bottled water on hand. Sanitation is also something most don't think about. Sewage was out here after Gustav, if you want to stay or come back, you need to be prepared for everything. What FEMA suggests you have on hand is not enough.


Where do you store 250 gallons of water, and how much did it cost to buy ?

2521. WxLogic
MDSD area sounding:



Looks moist enough through a good depth of atmo.
Quoting hurricane23:


They way the globals have performed this season thus far until i actually see a strengthening cane on an IR map its not worth putting to much stock on for the time being. For now it will have dry air and saharan dust to deal with.

Model skill that far out in any model whether its the ECM or GFS is actually quite poor in my book.


I agree, but the ECMWF is a good model maybe even the best model out there, it never really developed Emily and ended up being right and the NHC credited the model for that. I would not put much stock in the track this far out, I would not even even expect it to do much until 50-55 W either. The potential is out there though.
2523. NASA101
06 HWRF brings 93L to 140 knots winds at 900mb! Ridiculous given what it looks like right now...

The Big Picture:

Quoting Jax82:
The simple fact that the models are showing major hurricanes out there, no matter where they are ending up at 240 hours, tells us that the potential is out there for a CONUS hit, and that we are entering the peak of the season. Strap on your seats belts!
Truth be told! Have a feeling GOM is in for a bumpy ride this year (just a hunch). Seatbelt strapped!
Quoting WxLogic:
MDSD area sounding:



Looks moist enough through a good depth of atmo.
Moist enough for what?

Enough dry air there to hinder sustained convection...
Quoting msgambler:
I know during Katrina and Ivan when the local sherrif cam through the neighborhood for the mandated evac. I had to sign a waiver giving them my vital info and next of kin info before I was alowed to stay. Now that is in Alabama so I don't know how the laws are elsewhere.
I actually like this approach. If pple in a mandatory evac area insist on staying, it would help masses afterwards for local authorities to know they are/were there. As someone wrote rather harshly a couple years back [forget during which storm, now], don't forget to write your ssn on your torso so your body can be ID'd among the rubble of the storm... We certainly don't have anything that organized here...

2529. K8eCane
Quoting presslord:


'bout time for me to start shopping for a new outfit ;-)




I admire you Press. Youre awesome
2530. Grothar
Here is a link for the Florida Evacuation maps. I think it is a good idea for people living in different areas to post the links on here. It could come in handy some day. Just click on your County, and the the details show up

Link
I like the way people think it really matters that this is only the 3rd season with the 7th storm so early. All our storms have been small this year, and until what 1970's some of these storms wouldn't have even been detected, so really, what does the record really mean? Technology is new, data is new, so every year you'll find some kind of record.

On a funny note,,,,

Link
Quoting beell:
Hawkeye Media/Bolivar Peninsula/Post-Ike


Great link. Thanks.
BaHa, we were asked to write it on our arm. Can't remember which arm but they did specify one over the other.
2536. Squid28
Quoting Grothar:



Pretty much the same. The shame is that there are so many elderly and disabled people that it is either difficult or impossible for them to evacuate without assistance. Our local Red Cross started a "buddy system" in which people would register if they were incapable of evacuating on their own. Others would sign up and be responsible for bringing them to shelters or family members. Not a bad idea all in all.


After the whole Rita mess, our church set up what we dubbed "save a senior (citizen)" The relevant points were that we have several church owned buses and vans which we agreed to dedicate to evacuating members of our congregation who were elderley, disabled or unable to afford to evacuate otherwise. We set up a reciprocal agreement with two other churches for shelter at our designated evacuation points. The program is manned by volunteers from our church, complete with a "facilities trailer" including the ole port o can, food, water and reserve fuel.

Alternately, we also have a program where we try and match individual seniors to individual families to get them to evacuate the senior with their own family to a safe point and cover the seniors expenses for the trip.
Quoting presslord:


fair enough
Press, you live fairly close to the coast, right? What are mandatory evacs like for your area? [gotta admit I'm more familiar w/ FL ones, since that's the place I'm most likely to have to deal w/ a hurricane outside my own home].
Quoting Grothar:
Here is a link for the Florida Evacuation maps. I think it is a good idea for people living in different areas to post the links on here. It could come in handy some day. Just click on your County, and the the details show up

Link

Do you know where I can find an AL evac. route map?
Quoting MahFL:


Where do you store 250 gallons of water, and how much did it cost to buy ?



I have a spare bedroom that we use to store our supplies. I've been purchasing the gallons of water 2 cases at a time I think they run around $4.00 at Sams for Kentwood, 6 gallons in a case. I also have 55 gallon water barrels that can be filled in no time. They key to being well prepared, and not broke is to buy it over time, when there is no threat. I have dehydrated /canned food, propane and camp stoves, generator, 100 gallons of gas, huge medical kit. Enough batteries to power a thrid world country. Water not exposed to light will last years.
Very cold cloudtops... will see if these can sustain or not

2541. MahFL
Quoting angiest:
...and they are hopefully hedging for a stronger storm than forecast....


I don't think officials "hedge" for a stronger surge, they tell it as forcast. It would cause more uneeded evacuees. Of course if the expected surge is 2 feet below your house, you have to make the decision to stay or leave, that's your choice.
2543. WxLogic
Quoting atmoaggie:
Moist enough for what?

Enough dry air there to hinder sustained convection...


Hmm... compared to the dry air that was/is present in PR... DR area sounding sure looks a lot more conductive for convective sustainability now than before.

As you said... this might just be too much dry air still but I'm not quite seeing that in SAT presentation.
Quoting LADobeLady:


I have a spare bedroom that we use to store our supplies. I've been purchasing the gallons of water 2 cases at a time I think they run around $4.00 at Sams for Kentwood, 6 gallons in a case. I also have 55 gallon water barrels that can be filled in no time. They key to being well prepared, and not broke is to buy it over time, when there is no threat. I have dehydrated /canned food, propane and camp stoves, generator, 100 gallons of gas, huge medical kit. Enough batteries to power a thrid world country. Water not exposed to light will last years.


Doesn't all that stored bottle water have a shelf life?
2546. bwi
It's a long ways out, but it is a little unnerving that both GFS and ECMWF have a strong storm in about the same place (Southern Bahamas) at about the same time (240 hours). That's two runs in a row for EC with about the same solution.
2547. MahFL
Quoting LPStormspotter:


And the newscast said leave or face certain death.


There will always be "stupid" or unlucky people. I believe some decided to leave in the dark after the water came up, in some cases too late.
Quoting USAFwxguy:


Honestly, Hurricane Prep is an individual undertaking. There is not a template to follow, despite what we all here.

Some people think they are "prepared" if they run through the checklist and buy a bunch of stuff, stick it in a tub(s) and mark it "Hurricane Kit".

That doesn't usually cut it. Much of hurricane prep involves MENTAL prep... thinking things through ahead of time. What will you action be in the event of X, Y, or Z. How long will it take for you to EXECUTE YOUR PLAN? Buying stuff is typically just wasted energy and money. Staying aware will allow for enough time to buy stuff incrementally in support of YOUR PLAN, rather than to fill a checklist.

Can go hand in hand. Bit by bit, in the months prior to hurricane season, even if it's buying 1 extra bottle of water or an extra can of beans to put away. It all adds up, and as the season continues, the older stack can be used and replaced with fresh stock.
Quoting WxLogic:


Hmm... compared to the dry air that was/is present in PR... DR area sounding sure looks a lot more conductive for convective sustainability now than before.

As you said... this might just be too much dry air still but I'm not quite seeing that in SAT presentation.
You are correct that it is less dry. If we had a developed system, this prolly wouldn't bother it.
(After a second look.) For a developing system, ehh, may be moist enough, may not be.



Quoting Cotillion:


Heh. Alas, do they still have gardens in drought-stricken areas of Texas? :(

I have a nice crop of basket straw.
Quoting scott39:
Being middle or low income is no excuse to me in the USA, for not planning and being prepared ahead of time. Its how your are raised and some good ole common horse sense. You dont have to have a closet full of food and supplies. You find good shelter to ride it out and stock up on supplies a little at a time. Go without that Ding Dong Mountain Dew or pack of cigs every now and then, so you can buy a flashlight, batteries, bandaids ect....
Good advice also for stuff like hurricane shutters etc. You may not be able to afford them all at once, but if you budget in the cost of one per month, then do 1/2 or one side at a time, it becomes possible. The problem is, it's hard to see the forest for the trees sometimes. When u have kids to feed and bills to pay, it's not always easy to see the "big picture" and organize that way....
Quoting Stormchaser2007:






2554. WxLogic
Quoting atmoaggie:
You are correct that it is less dry. If we had a developed system, this prolly wouldn't bother it.
(After a second look.) For a developing system, ehh, may be moist enough, may not be.





Indeed... and so we shall see if 93L is strong enough to not get bothered by the "little stuff".
I know some have mentioned hotels that jack up prices. So I would like to provide some balance to that.

We were returning from vacation in NC, just before Wilma was due to hit our area in S FL. We stopped in Savannah, GA, at a Hampton Inn and they knew we were worried. They bent over backwards to give us a lower rate than we deserved and made sure we had access to a computer so we could check on things. Now when we look for hotels to stay in, we always remember our experience at Hampton. And no, we don't work for them or any other hotel chain for that matter.

A friend of ours took back roads out of FL and she said as soon as she crossed the border into GA there were people stopping cars with FL license plates and inviting them to dinner at their church. She had 3 small children with her and said she cried tears of relief and joy because people were so kind and helpful.

Thank you people of GA for your kindness and generosity. Yes, you have to be wary these days, but you should also know there are many good people out there too. They just don't make the news.
Not much out there right now as the wave is dealing with some dry and saharan dust but the probs have real gone up in the area as climo favors something popping as the cape verde season ramps up.

Upward motion is starting to return in the Atlantic. ITCZ has lifted north and increased in intensity.

Should help our African wave deal with dry air.

Over 2550 comments...hint hint...time for a new blog update.
GGEM likes the new wave



00z UKMET

120 hours


00z GFS
144

Quoting K8eCane:




I admire you Press. Youre awesome

Wow i thought your comment has IP trackers, because long, long ago someone said this which is very similar to yours with an additional IP tracker,
"I agree with Aussie, he good guy (IP tracker) "
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Upward motion is starting to return in the Atlantic. ITCZ has lifted north and increased in intensity.

Should help our African wave deal with dry air.



Yeah and check out that crazy African wave train following...yikes...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Press, you live fairly close to the coast, right? What are mandatory evacs like for your area? [gotta admit I'm more familiar w/ FL ones, since that's the place I'm most likely to have to deal w/ a hurricane outside my own home].


well...the last one we had Floyd...and it was a nightmare...
Ahh, a low of 71 F this am. Not the 67 F forecasted, but I'll take it, relative to the normal low of 78 F of late (with a dewpoint of 78 F).
Quoting Grothar:



Pretty much the same. The shame is that there are so many elderly and disabled people that it is either difficult or impossible for them to evacuate without assistance. Our local Red Cross started a "buddy system" in which people would register if they were incapable of evacuating on their own. Others would sign up and be responsible for bringing them to shelters or family members. Not a bad idea all in all.
Yeah. This the kind of thing I am talking about. However, I think some older people are "resistent" to admitting they need help - a pride issue? - so it behooves friends / family in a hurricane to get them out, somehow.

Press put it well; each situation is unique. But having a plan matters.
00z ECMWF brings the system down to 964 mbs.

Quoting presslord:


South Carolina


shocking, I know I live in NMB. LOL

the gov is so inept in this state its pretty much a joke, from the local levels and up....
Blog update! Read for my opinion on the tropics today.
Gert weakens, 93L, new African wave our biggest threat. 8/16/11
Quoting kmanislander:
A quick stop in to post this new map which has piqued my interest.

This is the best surface convergence signature that 93L has ever had since coming off Africa to the best of my recollection. It could finally be making a serious attempt at producing a surface low and the circulation that goes with it. The 850,700 and 500 mb vorticity are all lined up nicely on the recent maps as well but no time to post them now.

If this trend continues this could mark a turning point in the history of this system. IMO the improved structure probably warrants an upgrade to 30% later today, assuming it holds.

We'll see. Back later.

Whoa.... that is pretty interesting. Anybody else look at the top end?

Quoting Vincent4989:

Wow i thought your comment has IP trackers, because long, long ago someone said this which is very similar to yours with an additional IP tracker,
"I agree with Aussie, he good guy "


????
Quoting presslord:


well...the last one we had Floyd...and it was a nightmare...


I was sitting for hours in that mess when i lived in Myrtle Beach. Hugo was no fun as well. At least Myrtle has more ways to get out other than 501 now.
2571. MahFL
Where do you store 100 gallons of gas ?
Quoting presslord:


'bout time for me to start shopping for a new outfit ;-)

No thanks. Use that money to stock up on replaced goods.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Ahh, a low of 71 F this am. Not the 67 F forecasted, but I'll take it, relative to the normal low of 78 F of late (with a dewpoint of 78 F).

I see that Dallas was hot again this morning (on its way to another 100 plus day). From 1898 up until three weeks ago, Dallas had never seen a morning as warm as 86 degrees. It only dipped to that point this morning, the fourth time it's done so:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
757 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2011

...RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT DALLAS/FORT WORTH...
...ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TIED AT DALLAS/FORT
WORTH...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING AT DALLAS/FORT WORTH INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT WAS 86 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 16TH OF 81 DEGREES SET IN 1934...1954 AND
2010.

THE 86 DEGREE LOW ALSO TIES THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY SET THREE TIMES EARLIER THIS
SUMMER...JULY 26TH...AUGUST 3RD AND AUGUST 4TH.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z ECMWF brings the system down to 964 mbs.




Nasty, and look at the AB high.
2576. scott39
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good advice also for stuff like hurricane shutters etc. You may not be able to afford them all at once, but if you budget in the cost of one per month, then do 1/2 or one side at a time, it becomes possible. The problem is, it's hard to see the forest for the trees sometimes. When u have kids to feed and bills to pay, it's not always easy to see the "big picture" and organize that way....
I think the biggest problem with most people(outside of WU bloggers) is that they dont have a clue that 10 to 14 days from now a Major Hurricane MAYBE in thier backyard. I know this is no excuse, but 99% of people outside "our world" never think it will never happen to them. Especially if they have never been through one before.Procrastination, poor planning and not being educated raises its ugly head EVERY TIME!
Excellent update from 28storms.com

Link
Has anyone heard from StormW in awhile?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:



That would be an east coast strike with the ridging to the North.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z ECMWF brings the system down to 964 mbs.



That's yesterday's model's apocalyptocane, right?
Quoting scott39:
I think the biggest problem with most people(outside of WU bloggers) is that they dont have a clue that 10 to 14 days from now a Major Hurricane MAYBE in thier backyard. I know this is no excuse, but 99% of people outside "our world" never think it will never happen to them. Especially if they have never been through one before.Procrastination, poor planning and not being educated raises its ugly head EVERY TIME!

And once it does happen, they blame everyone else except themselves.
2583. MahFL
Quoting atmoaggie:
Ahh, a low of 71 F this am. Not the 67 F forecasted, but I'll take it, relative to the normal low of 78 F of late (with a dewpoint of 78 F).


Sheesh, weather forcasters, you can't beleive a word they say :P. It's always the same in Orange Park, especially during the winter, eg they forcast 32F and its 36F.
Quoting nofailsafe:


That's yesterday's model's apocalyptocane, right?


Nope, that's the 00z ECMWF.
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Has anyone heard from StormW in awhile?

We are not allowed to say that name in here anymore. but if you look closely at your quote you'll find out where that person is located.
Quoting USAFwxguy:


Doesn't all that stored bottle water have a shelf life?


Water not exposed to light will last years, the gallons come in thick cardboard cases. Worst case in a few years I'll water my garden with them and refill the jugs.
Quoting Neapolitan:

I see that Dallas was hot again this morning (on its way to another 100 plus day). From 1898 up until three weeks ago, Dallas had never seen a morning as warm as 86 degrees. It only dipped to that point this morning, the fourth time it's done so
Ugh, that's miserable.

I had family come in from a 10 hour drive from the NNW and comment on our much cooler weather. (Tulsa's had a bad, hot summer, too.)
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



That would be an east coast strike with the ridging to the North.


Indeed. Trough lifting out and a bridging high to the north.

Pretty impressive model consensus for development.

06Z GFS track
2589. MahFL
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Has anyone heard from StormW in awhile?


He was banned.
Quoting presslord:


well...the last one we had Floyd...and it was a nightmare...
Geez, and they haven't made any improvements since then???? I keep thinking SC has a lot of coastal islands which are prone to surge.

Will do some reading up on this, now, because my interest has been piqued...

2591. divdog
Quoting MahFL:
Where do you store 100 gallons of gas ?
In my boat
2592. Squid28
Quoting USAFwxguy:


Doesn't all that stored bottle water have a shelf life?


There are various products you can buy on the market that area collapasible bladders which you can store large quantities of water in. Water bobs & Aqua Safes for bathtubs (48 gal, one time use), Aqua Tanks II up to (350 ga, can be reused) that you can set up elsewhere. They are not cheap, but the beauty of them is they do not take up much space and you can fill them up with fresh water right before the storm
2593. scott39
Quoting AussieStorm:

And once it does happen, they blame everyone else except themselves.
Of course... It is the responsibilty of the parent who is taking care of kids, the elderly or the disabled to be ready. Some People have become too dependent on other people telling them what to do and how to do it.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Upward motion is starting to return in the Atlantic. ITCZ has lifted north and increased in intensity.

Should help our African wave deal with dry air.

heard dry air over and over again what it is now the waters are getting warmer
NAO positive for 4 days now which favors ridging on the east coast. May take some time for the Atmosphere to respond especially after the record 68 day negative NAO.

16Aug2011 0.17377E+00
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfstr opical850mbVortSLPGFSLoop.html

Looks like GFS and other models have "Katrina" like storm developing in the Western Atlantic and then moving towards FL and up to Louisiana. Doesn't look good but it's still 10-15 days out....
VA is well prepared for any storm to hit. On I-64 east of Richmond, they have gates on on ramps blocking anyone who's trying to go east on 64, and I also do believe they would do contraflow. I credit VDEM for being this prepared, they learned their lesson during Isabel.
2598. MahFL
Quoting divdog:
In my boat


Well I don't have a spare bedroom, or a boat :(.
2599. ncstorm
Quoting tropicfreak:
VA is well prepared for any storm to hit. On I-64 east of Richmond, they have gates on on ramps blocking anyone who's trying to go east on 64, and I also do believe they would do contraflow. I credit VDEM for being this prepared, they learned their lesson during Isabel.


so thats why they have the gates on those exits??
Quoting MahFL:


There will always be "stupid" or unlucky people. I believe some decided to leave in the dark after the water came up, in some cases too late.


Agree!
Quoting scott39:
I think the biggest problem with most people(outside of WU bloggers) is that they dont have a clue that 10 to 14 days from now a Major Hurricane MAYBE in thier backyard. I know this is no excuse, but 99% of people outside "our world" never think it will never happen to them. Especially if they have never been through one before.Procrastination, poor planning and not being educated raises its ugly head EVERY TIME!
Sad, but true. I'm constantly amazed at the kinds of things people say - and believe - when a storm is approaching. And this from relatively "storm-savvy" Bahamians...
Best thing that all the WU Bloggers can do (other than donate time or money after a storm to help victims)is to make sure that the give all of your friends and family a friendly call to give them a heads up if it looks like a storm may be threatening them so they can get check their disaster plan.....However, you cannot cry wolf on every blob or model run 10 days out because they won't take you seriously when 99% of those fizzle out or never materialize for them....... :)
2603. FLdewey
So as Gert dies we set a record. Never before has the Atlantic produced so many named storms without any hurricanes.

Woot woot.
Quoting MahFL:
Where do you store 100 gallons of gas ?


In an outside, vented shed away from my house, in gas cans. Stabil is used to keep the gas right and it is rotated out and replaced.
Quoting ncstorm:


so thats why they have the gates on those exits??


Correct you are!

Basically, when NC gets affected, we get affected because of the way the coast bends and straightens out on the OBX, VA Beach gets some nasty weather though not as bad as NC does, still something to be reckoned with.
Anyway, I gotta run. On my way out, I just want to say, these runs with the huge storm coming up over the Bahamas are really starting to get old, now.... could we not be having that so much today????


l8r
Quoting BahaHurican:
I actually like this approach. If pple in a mandatory evac area insist on staying, it would help masses afterwards for local authorities to know they are/were there. As someone wrote rather harshly a couple years back [forget during which storm, now], don't forget to write your ssn on your torso so your body can be ID'd among the rubble of the storm... We certainly don't have anything that organized here...


When Floyd came through Abaco in 99 Great Guana cay had only 42 people of the 150 residents on the island.

We had a list of everyone who stayed and where they were.

I was one of 4 Americans who stayed due to vested interests and because I wanted to see what a real hurricane was like.

We stayed above the cemetary in a house built half into the lime rock about 40 feet above sea level.

I would do it again in a heartbeat....




Quoting robert88:


I was sitting for hours in that mess when i lived in Myrtle Beach. Hugo was no fun as well. At least Myrtle has more ways to get out other than 501 now.


not really, pretty much the same as always. 17, 9, 501. the only difference is 22, but it bottlenecks with 501 in Aynor, so thats not much help. I have lived here long enough that I can back road it out of here if nessasary
Quoting MahFL:


Well I don't have a spare bedroom, or a boat :(.



You can use sanitized 2 liter pop bottles, wash thoroughly in hot water with some non scented bleach. Fill the bottles and store them under beds, in totes that won't let light through. If you don't drink 2 liter pop, ask friends and family that do, to save the bottles for you. Do NOT count on government to take care of you. It can be days or weeks before someone shows up.
2611. scott39
Quoting BahaHurican:
Sad, but true. I'm constantly amazed at the kinds of things people say - and believe - when a storm is approaching. And this from relatively "storm-savvy" Bahamians...
I wish they would intergrate some kind of program in school for kids( around the world) every season about Hurricane awareness and prepareness. Now that would be good money put to use.

MahFL 1:42 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

+0













Quoting Nolehead:
The GFS animated Link: Something of interest.

that's not good at all...would be a lot of oil being slung around the al/fl beaches..


The oil is mostly on the seabed, 1000's of feet below the surface.


that's where you are mistaken, I have been working this spill since last May and the things I have seen and heard would blow the publics mind. But hey tourism is hot, nothing to see here, then why are both mayors upset about a closed door meeting in NOLA regading clean up after a storm 2 to 3 years from now...not about this year?? But yes back to the oil, it's there...and a lot of it. time will tell the truth..
2613. Grothar
Quoting wxmobilejim:

Do you know where I can find an AL evac. route map?



Here it is.

Just click on what you want

Link
2614. Buhdog
Quoting P451:
It would be a good time to reconnect with family in safe regions within a reasonable reach.

That's is what family is for anyways...even if today's American society seems to balk at such an idea as if it's an intrusion.

A tank or two of gas and go hole up with relatives.

Those are plans that a quick phone call can set up right now.

"Hey, if we get a bad hurricane hitting us, can we come stay with you guys for a couple of weeks? We don't have the money for hotels for three weeks."

I mean, if that's considered an imposition, that's ridiculous.

I was about to say, for a lot of people here [The Bahamas] the "evacuation plan" is to move from their house near the sea to a family member's house further inland. There's no way to get 250,000 people off the island in the 3 or fewer days before a hurricane hits, even if people could afford it, and that's true of each of our islands with smaller population to a certain extent. Now, that doesn't mean you go sponge off your family for two weeks; you have to carry your storm supplies including bedding etc, for the time you will be there. But there has to be a way for people to help each other more during storms. It was something I wondered about during Katrina in NOLA. There were some people who couldn't afford to evacuate, yes. But I think some could have left with neighbours, family and didn't. I have a hard time thinking Americans are so disconnected from others around them that there is NO one they can turn to in a storm.

Not that we don't have storm shelters too. People use them, because sometimes ALL your family lives in at risk areas [entirely possible when many island communities are coastal ones with serious vulnerabilities to surge and wave action]. But aren't shelters community-run?


my wife built an online non profit site 5 years ago with these exact same principals...its a buddy system, but i wont post it and get banned.
Quoting LADobeLady:


Water not exposed to light will last years, the gallons come in thick cardboard cases. Worst case in a few years I'll water my garden with them and refill the jugs.


Yeah but imagine all of the plastic chemicals leaching into the water from the bottles.
The MJO is here to stay for 2-3 weeks

Week 1

Quoting tropicfreak:
VA is well prepared for any storm to hit. On I-64 east of Richmond, they have gates on on ramps blocking anyone who's trying to go east on 64, and I also do believe they would do contraflow. I credit VDEM for being this prepared, they learned their lesson during Isabel.
? 1.5 M people in the Hampton Roads area cannot all take a single 4-lane (2 lane each way) interstate...
I had the exact opposite opinion of the area's evac capabilities when I lived there.

(Unless they have expanded that one and added in at least 2 more roads since I was last there, 5 years ago.)
2618. Grothar
Quoting NASA101:
06 HWRF brings 93L to 140 knots winds at 900mb! Ridiculous given what it looks like right now...




This was Wilma just a few days before you know what. Everyone thought she would dissipate.

Quoting E46Pilot:


Yeah but imagine all of the plastic chemicals leaching into the water from the bottles.


We all have to die from something, I'd rather it be from the plastic, than dehydration. I cannot count on my government to save me. I have to have personal responsibility for me and my family. That is a lesson everyone needs to learn and live by.
Another point on the evacuation issue is to consider the vulnerable in your own immediate family. Some of the "tough" folks might laugh at an incoming storm and decide to ride it out, even with evacuation orders, but don't make that decision for your children or elderly and put their lives at risk.
2621. K8eCane
Quoting MyrtleCanes:


shocking, I know I live in NMB. LOL

the gov is so inept in this state its pretty much a joke, from the local levels and up....



Myrtlecanes you arent far from me at all...Im in Wilmington
Quoting MahFL:


Where do you store 250 gallons of water, and how much did it cost to buy ?



Never overlook the obvious. Should you know that you are about to be hit by a hurricane you can easily sterilize your bathtubs using bleach a few hours ahead of the storm. Fill your bathtubs with water. You can pre-purchase a sheet of plywood to cut down to fit over the tub. Cheap, no lugging in water over a few weeks and should last you a good while. Remember, this water is for drinking and cooking only. Don't be using it to give the dog a bath. LOL
Quoting scott39:
I wish they would intergrate some kind of program in school for kids( around the world) every season about Hurricane awareness and prepareness. Now that would be good money put to use.

At my son's school they have weather info during lunch 2-3 times a week.
Quoting LADobeLady:


We all have to die from something, I'd rather it be from the plastic, than dehydration. I cannot count on my government to save me. I have to have personal responsibility for me and my family. That is a lesson everyone needs to learn and live by.


What about filling up the bathtubs? That's like pretty much free.
Quoting Grothar:
Here is a link for the Florida Evacuation maps. I think it is a good idea for people living in different areas to post the links on here. It could come in handy some day. Just click on your County, and the the details show up

Link

That is an excellent idea Grothar.
Quoting scott39:
I think the biggest problem with most people(outside of WU bloggers) is that they dont have a clue that 10 to 14 days from now a Major Hurricane MAYBE in thier backyard. I know this is no excuse, but 99% of people outside "our world" never think it will never happen to them. Especially if they have never been through one before.Procrastination, poor planning and not being educated raises its ugly head EVERY TIME!


Quoting atmoaggie:
? 1.5 M people in the Hampton Roads area cannot all take a single 4-lane (2 lane each way) interstate...
I had the exact opposite opinion of the area's evac capabilities when I lived there.

(Unless they have expanded that one and added in at least 2 more roads since I was last there, 5 years ago.)


They can also take US 60, which runs alongside 64 from the beach through Richmond.
Quoting Grothar:



Here it is.

Just click on what you want

Link

thanks for the link. The info is great
Quoting Abacosurf:

When Floyd came through Abaco in 99 Great Guana cay had only 42 people of the 150 residents on the island.

We had a list of everyone who stayed and where they were.

I was one of 4 Americans who stayed due to vested interests and because I wanted to see what a real hurricane was like.

We stayed above the cemetary in a house built half into the lime rock about 40 feet above sea level.

I would do it again in a heartbeat....




These little 40 ft outcrops are what have been saving Bahamian lives for hundreds of years. The list thing u mentioned is akin to the "check on family" that Family Island communities have done for a very long time. In the cities, it's a little different, a bit more difficult, to do this.
Quoting scott39:
I wish they would intergrate some kind of program in school for kids( around the world) every season about Hurricane awareness and prepareness. Now that would be good money put to use.
Knowledge is power. There is a certain amount of hurricane teaching incorporated into primary social studies curriculum here, but I think more general awareness can be raised.
strong gusty winds in PR's south shore, squalls
Quoting atmoaggie:
? 1.5 M people in the Hampton Roads area cannot all take a single 4-lane (2 lane each way) interstate...
I had the exact opposite opinion of the area's evac capabilities when I lived there.

(Unless they have expanded that one and added in at least 2 more roads since I was last there, 5 years ago.)


The roadblocks are designed to allow ALL lanes to flow in the same direction
Quoting ncstorm:


so thats why they have the gates on those exits??


Yup!
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PRC025-035-057-063-069-077-085-103-109-123-129-15 1-161845-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SV.W.0009.110816T1823Z-110816T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CAGUAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAGUAS...
CAYEY MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAYEY...
GUAYAMA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
GURABO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GURABO...
HUMACAO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PUNTA SANTIAGO...HUMACAO...
JUNCOS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF JUNCOS...
LAS PIEDRAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LAS PIEDRAS...
NAGUABO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NAGUABO...
PATILLAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
SALINAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN LORENZO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SAN LORENZO...
YABUCOA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 245 PM AST

* AT 217 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM ANTON RUIZ TO 7 MILES EAST OF CAYEY TO 6 MILES
SOUTH OF CAYEY...MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LA
FERMINA...CELADA AND BAIROA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 1825 6588 1829 6578 1822 6566 1817 6569
1818 6572 1815 6573 1815 6578 1812 6577
1815 6578 1809 6599 1798 6621 1813 6622
1815 6610 1821 6611 1823 6608 1831 6606
1831 6597
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 099DEG 28KT 1818 6583 1810 6608
1803 6622

$$

ROSA




Strong squalls in Puerto Rico
2637. benheb
The rainfall in New York over the weekend was incredible - here is more on it, with some staggering stats: Link
Im tearing up after watching this. One of the better news reports. Link