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Geoengineering: a bad idea whose time may come

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:46 PM GMT on December 19, 2008

Yesterday, at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), climate change scientists discussed the risks and benefits of deliberately altering Earth's climate through "geoengineering". One measure of the concern scientists have about Earth's climate could be gauged by the standing-room only crowd of 200 that packed the presentation room. The eleven speakers at the session laid out some radical and dangerous ideas for deliberately altering Earth's climate. They uniformly cautioned that the uncertainties and dangers of implementing any of these schemes was high, but that geoengineering may be necessary if efforts to control greenhouse gases fail and the climate begins to undergo rapid and destructive changes.

David Keith presented the results of a week-long workshop held earlier this year that brought together ten of the world's experts on geoengineering. He emphasized that even if we stopped emitting CO2 today, the possibility of dangerous climate change capable of causing a "climate emergency" may still be higher than 1%, thanks to the tremendous inertia of the heat stored in the oceans. Of course, we're not going to stop emitting CO2 today. Dealing with a future climate emergency is technically feasible, if we inject large quantities of sulfur into the tropical stratosphere via aircraft, artillery, or tethered balloons with hoses. Sulfur injection into the stratosphere is considered to be the leading candidate for geoengineering, since nature has done this many times via volcanic eruptions, and we have some idea of what to expect. As I reported in a blog post earlier this year, the idea is being championed by Nobel prize-winning atmospheric chemist Paul Crutzen.

One problem with injecting sulfur into the stratosphere is that it tends to settle back to the surface in about ten months. A. V. Eliseev explained that in order to keep global temperatures under control in a world with ever-increasing CO2 emissions, we would have to inject an ever increasing amount of sulfur into the atmosphere. His computer model results showed that if a funding lapse occurred in, say, the year 2075, the atmosphere would rapidly warm by 5-9°F (3-5°C) over most of North America, Europe, and Asia, within a decade of cessation of the geoengineering efforts. The resulting shock to ecosystems would be extremely dangerous to civilization.

Richard Turco of UCLA estimated that injecting enough sulfur in the stratosphere to properly geoengineer the climate would require 3000 aircraft sorties per day, and cost $50-$100 billion per year. Model results he presented showed a large amount of uncertainty as to what might happen, and he cautioned that there was "no guarantee of success, and failure would be catastrophic".

A. Robrock of Rutgers disagreed with Dr. Turco, and estimated that the cost of injecting the required amount of sulfur into the stratosphere would by less that $5 billion per year, provided the U.S. military would let scientists use 167 of the existing fleet of 522 F15C Eagle jets to do the job. After all, he reasoned, why wouldn't the military want to use their aircraft to confront our enemy (global warming?) High-altitude fighter jets would be required to do the job, since ordinary jetliners cannot fly high enough to penetrate into the stratosphere. He cautioned that such a fleet of aircraft would have to fly three missions per day, and their exhaust gases would probably cause significant destruction of Earth's protective ozone layer. Furthermore, modeling studies show that we don't know what size particles to make, where to put the sulfur, and what uneven effects the efforts might have on Earth's climate. He concluded, "there are many reasons not to do geoengineering".

A more ecological approach to geoengineering was presented by Phil Rasch of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and by Jim Haywood of Britain's Met Office Hadley Center. They proposed building a fleet of wind-powered ships known as Fletter vessels (Figure 1) that would spray large amounts of sea salt into the air in regions where there are existing stratocumulus clouds. The sea salt would act as nuclei around which moisture could condense, making the clouds more reflective. A fleet of approximately 66 of these vessels would be required to seed the clouds over 30% of the globe, to balance a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, they cautioned that while this solution would be relatively cheap, the technology to implement this scheme would be difficult. Furthermore, studies performed with climate models showed that the resulting climate shift would not be uniform, and many areas would experience drought. In particular, Dr. Haywood showed the possibility of severe drought in the Amazon rain forest and in the Southwest U.S.


Figure 1. A conceptual picture of Flettner spray vessel with Thom fences. These wind-driven vessels have vertical spinning cylinders that use the Magnus effect to produce forces perpendicular to the wind direction. Anton Flettner built a ship using this technology that crossed the Atlantic in 1926. The proposed geoengineering Flettner vessels would sail over ocean regions covered with stratocumulus clouds and make the existing clouds whiter by spraying small salt particles into the air. Image is copyright J. MacNeill 2006. For more information on these vessels, see Salter at al., 2008, "Sea-going hardware for the cloud albedo method of reversing global warming", Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A, 366, Number 1882, pp3989-4006, 13 November 2008.

Katharine Ricke of Carnagie Mellon University cautioned that the foreign policy community has virtually no awareness of geoengineering issues, and would be totally unprepared for the possibility of some country deciding to unilaterally attempt a geoengineering program on their own. She suggested that an effort needs to be made to promote international agreements on geoengineering, perhaps including binding treaties.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

What would cause some one to build something so darn top heavy and expect it to remain upright? More thinking needed and less messing with mother nature required. My opinion. thank you Dr. interesting thoughts abound.
Thanks for the report Dr.
Enjoy the conference!


Geoengineering...this is still a bad idea......

yawn
Quoting Tazmanian:
yawn
LOL
...this may be one of Dr. Masters most interesting posts ever....
...sorry taz...I just find this stuff fascinating....
This is a scary scary thought. We have a hard enough time forecasting what the weather is going to do now with the know factor of what is being put into the atmosphere in the way of green house gases. How can they think that they can even guess what might happen with more human made "Stuff" being put into the equation. There is no way of doing a small real world test of anything thing like this, and computer models still have a large error when forecasting more than a few days. These are projects that are never ending. In the end, Mother Nature will take care of her Earth, and if that means we as the human race disappear then it means we disappear. At the very least, maybe we should stop building and living on the edge of the environments that we claim to be trying to protect.

Sorry, I'll get off my soap box now.
WOWZA.
This is good stuff.
Thanks Doc....
Well..to be sure the uncontrolled Terraforming were doing 24/7 365 already is a experiment gone bad.

With the advent of Science delivering us to this point in only 200 years of fossil fueland coal en masse burning. Were going to need some sort of controlling or scrubbing of the negative elements that are already choking species and altering the Global balance.
Thanks Doc, interesting blog entry.

I'm always reserved about these projects if they were ever to be put into action... considering the scale it would effect.

We struggle to make toasters that work how you want them to. Let alone playing with the climate...
What a nifty idea! The same folks who brought you Amtrak, The Transportation Security Administration, FEMA, Enron, and the U.S. Post Office will now bring you (ta dah!) "geoengineered weather".

There are no problems that can't be made worse by sending money to Washington for the "political class" to spend.
...and the same folks who brought us NASA....NOAA....NHC....CDC...oh yea....and the US military....
HEY, we just had a FACE Transplant.....why not...LOL JUST kidding......bad idea trying to alter the Climate.....danger lurking in my opinion......
Listen to Taz. He's called it.
Thanks Doc
Seems it would be cheaper and almost as risky to bomb dormant volcanoes.
"Global Lobbying" vs "Global Warming" would seem to be a better use of monies. World wide, politicians speak volumes with their lack of community spirit.
The price and availability of oil within the next 50 years will for sure force the long road to balance. Mother Terra will eventualy take care of herself. Hopefully, we can begin species rejuvenation studies before it's too late and stop wasting monies on such schemes as seen above and parallel universes and such.
When will Sophism subside and common sense return to the scientific community?
err..Duh..were altering the Globe every day with Emissions,Pollution and coal.

Every see a clear day in Hong Kong?

What ya think?..the Co2 and Methane Fairie's come out at night and twinkle their nose's and it goes POOF ?


Only Humans damage and create havoc in the Global Atmosphere and surface.

Have yet to see a Duck or a Eagle Build an Engine.

LOL

Quoting theshepherd:
Thanks Doc
Seems it would be cheaper and almost as risky to bomb dormant volcanoes.
"Global Lobbying" vs "Global Warming" would seem to be a better use of monies. World wide, politicians speak volumes with their lack of community spirit.
The price and availability of oil within the next 50 years will for sure force the long road to balance. Mother Terra will eventualy take care of herself. Hopefully, we can begin species rejuvenation studies before it's too late and stop wasting monies on such schemes as seen above and parallel universes and such.
When will Sophism subside and common sense return to the scientific community?


IT'S ALL ABOUT GETTING FUNDS$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
How about making a device and placing it where it can measure pollutants produced in productions facilities ect. for both water and air resulting in collection of taxes on the pollution produced? Isn't that a more Washington based solution? lol
What about tunnels....
where's MichaelSTL???
Quoting TampaSpin:


IT'S ALL ABOUT GETTING FUNDS$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
LOL,butmega funds exist already. Seems to me it's all about allocation of funds.
Misallocation begins at the ballot box.
Quoting mobal:
What about tunnels....


Don't get started on those again. HA HA
Some day off the coast of Dauphin Island, the rigs will get replaced by giant salt pumper uppers. Mysteriously, the vegetation stops growing, strange...
Dr.Masters,
Thank you for the unexpexcted Global Warming update!
I personally don't think it is a good idea, especially since we would have to continue doing it until we got GHGs back to normal levels (and likely would use it as an excuse to continue emissions, at least until the Big Crunch occurs as fossil fuels become depleted, which would also wreck havoc if we didn't have any progress towards renewables either).

When Dr. Masters talks about what would happen if for some reason we stopped, the follow demonstrates the problem it would cause (would be much worse if the time was longer):



Notice the temperature rise if it is stopped, and that is only after a couple decades, with continued GHG emissions (causing a sudden drop also wouldn't be really good). It also only has a slight slowing effect at the end as well.

(that came from here, which reflects what Dr. Masters said)
19. mobal 8:54 AM PST on December 19, 2008
What about tunnels....


yeah! tunnels! where's cb?

;)
since global warming is being put on hold for a 10/20 years by natural cycles.. i think we will be just fine.. the world is not ending.. we don't need to do anything other than switch energy resources over time with economic sense.
Use the exhaust of the salt pump to produce wave action,with a sensor to apply exhaust in phase with existing swell component, thereby utilyzing 100% of process and improving surf quality!!! East coast this week really, really good-Tues over 6 foot, I'm still aching.Water temp bone chilling for me...expect continued water temp slide down into the 50's by Feb (Ponce)
Oh boy.

Thanks Dr. M...I think.

Anyone else notice that every single one of these global temperature anomaly plots show a perfect correlation from 1960 to present with the number of jet exhausts washing over the poorly placed surface stations next to a runway?

Those stations should only be in the FAA historical records...nowhere else.
Waiting for space mirrors to decrease the solar energy hitting the earth and iron filings dumped in the ocean to increase algae and photosynthetic CO2 uptake too. But for various reasons, I think all of these are bad ideas.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=12&fd=18&fy=2008&sm=12&sd=18&sy=1995

- Link comparing Arctic Sea Ice 2008 vs 1995.
with this MASSIVE warming.. we are doing pretty good don't ya think?
Interesting read Dr.M.
Quoting groundswell:
Use the exhaust of the salt pump to produce wave action,with a sensor to apply exhaust in phase with existing swell component, thereby utilyzing 100% of process and improving surf quality!!! East coast this week really, really good-Tues over 6 foot, I'm still aching.Water temp bone chilling for me...expect continued water temp slide down into the 50's by Feb (Ponce)


Actually, wave action gives more surface area for evaporation. More water vapor in the air (a far more efficient GHG than CO2)...potential positive feedback to messing with a self-correcting system. Now THAT really would be anthropogenic induced warming, just the thing for which this idea would supposedly make amends for.
It's sort of like cutting open someone's gut. It's not a good idea. But if you get appendicitis, it becomes necessary. However, I think a lot of the geoengineering proposals I have heard about over the years would have really bad consequences, and should be avoided unless we really are heading for a runaway greenhouse, like Venus. Just my 'gut' talking.

Or maybe I am just hungry. Lunch time!
Quoting NRAamy:
yeah! tunnels! where's cb?

;)


I think he was permabanned from this blog for talking about them all the time, at least he was before (haven't seen him here since I don't know when so he probably still is). In any event, his idea wouldn't work either (it would also only cool the ocean if it did; he ignores the fact that land has been warming faster so even if SSTs were brought back to average land would still warm up, not that his idea would work since all it does is increase upwelling, similar to how a La Nina causes cooling - though the "lost" heat is stored in the ocean, which eventually warms up; an El Nino basically releases the stored heat).
Speaking of heat accumulation in the ocean, the following graphics of sea surface height anomaly dramatically shows this; the first is from 2005 (neutral at this time, a weak La Nina developed later) second from 2007 (strong La Nina) and last from 2008 (weak La Nina); notice the western Pacific in particular (some of that is from the trades blowing water westwards but compare 2007 and 2008; even though last year had a much stronger La Nina present the SSH anomaly was lower):





The increase in the Atlantic is also notable (the scale is +/- 30 centimeters so the variations are pretty significant).
35. MichaelSTL 9:23 AM PST on December 19, 2008

Quoting NRAamy:
yeah! tunnels! where's cb?

;)


I think he was permabanned from this blog for talking about them all the time,


If he doesn't belong on a geoengineering blog, then I don't know who does.
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Speaking of heat accumulation in the ocean, the following graphics of sea surface height anomaly dramatically shows this; the first is from 2005 (neutral at this time, a weak La Nina developed later) second from 2007 (strong La Nina) and last from 2008 (weak La Nina); notice the western Pacific in particular (some of that is from the trades blowing water westwards but compare 2007 and 2008; even though last year had a much stronger La Nina present the SSH anomaly was lower):



The increase in the Atlantic is also notable (the scale is /- 30 centimeters so the variations are pretty significant).


I want to point out that this information doesn't mean anything at all in the realm of global trends. We haven't been measuring SSH for long enough to apply any meaning to what it is now relative to an average value (read: definition of anomaly) that might, if we are lucky, include 1 of the longer natural cycles.

I can show you that today is anomalously warm if I use the average temp from this morning 2 AM to 8 AM as my baseline.

You guys ever consider that we began measuring all of these parameters at about the same time (relative to climactic cycles) and maybe, just maybe, all of the anomalies and trends collectively are showing you a portion of the cycle during which we began measuring in the middle of? Outside of suspect pinpoint surface obs, we have no data spanning the last 3 ~30-year cycles. For example, our satellite obs only include the last PDO cold phase and warm phase. One each. Just as 1998 and 2007 ENSOs taught us, some cycles are stronger than others.


Pretending that we know all there is to know about the planet's natural cycles, especially in the oceans, is a sham.
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number SIXTEEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
2:00 AM ACST December 20 2008
=====================================

At 12:30 am Austrlia CST, Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Two [983 hPa] located at 14.8S 128.4E or 80 km north-northeast of Wyndham and 135 km west-southwest of Port Keats has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is moving southwest at 4 knots.

The destructive core of Tropical Cyclone Billy is currently crossing the coast north of Wyndham.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau in Western Australia to Port Keats in the Northern Territory.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Cockatoo Island.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin (1200z UTC)
===================================
12 HRS: 14.8S 128.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 14.9S 127.2E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 14.9S 125.9E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 15.9S 123.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone 'Billy' has remained near stationary for the past 6 hours and has tightly wrapped spiral banding evident on Wyndham radar. Animated IR satellite imagery shows persistent cold dense cloud over the system centre and
symmetric outflow. Dvorak analysis at 1200 UTC based on

MET=3.5 and PAT=3.5. The cyclone is forecast to commence a SW or W drift early Saturday under the influence of a strengthening mid-level ridge to the southwest. A consensus of NWP forecasts indicates weakening during passage across the north Kimberley then redevelopment off the west Kimberley coast between 48 and 72 hours.
Here is my idea. First, use a series of liquid nitrogen-cooled chambers to freeze out the CO2 and isolate it. Then, use a solar power plant to electrolyze water into hydrogen and oxygen. The oxygen can be released and the hydrogen can be reacted with the CO2 in the Bosch reaction to produce water and graphite. The water can be recycled to produce more hydrogen, and the graphite can be buried in abandoned mines and sealed off.
I think Mother nature needs to be left alone and not try to alter it it would be to risky!
It seems geoengineering similiar to the 1st example is already occuring in the form of contrails & aerosols. There has been recent studies into this area after Sept 11-14, 2001, had the biggest diurnal temperature range of any three-day period in the past 30 years. If the contrails stopped tommarrow we would be looking a several degree immediate increase in temp. NOVA's Dimming the Sun covered this nicely.

I do advocate one form of geoengineering...planting. Plant trees, gorilla garden, grow your own. Everytime you put a seed to the earth you just gave a CO2 scrubber a chance.
I can't shake the image of the stereotypical mad scientist with a doomsday device. (or any of Tesla's later ideas).

Next thing you know we'll be affixing millions of rockets to the earth, all facing west, in an attempt to slow down the earth's rotation to reduce the Coriolis force, and thus reduce hurricane strength ... unless, the world pays 1 billion dollars, muhahaha.

Seriously though, the legal ramifications of this sort of project are huge. Just think of the lawsuits ... all the people selling carbon credits will be out of business, they'll want compensation.
Woah, now this is interesting...

"The life cycles of two real tropical cyclones successfully predicted with a global model that resolves cloud systems

Atmospheric models that resolve clouds have greatly contributed to understanding local and regional climate; excessive computational needs have in the past allowed these models to be run only over limited areas. The increasing capability of high-end computers now allows numerical simulations with horizontal resolutions high enough to resolve cloud systems in a global model. Fudeyasu et al. (2008) analyzed initial results from the global Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), developed by Japanese scientists. In their study, NICAM simulation successfully reproduced the life cycles of two real tropical cyclones that formed in the Indian Ocean in 2006s austral summer. Initialized with atmospheric conditions that were present a few weeks before the cyclones formed, the model captured the timing of formation, motions, and overall evolution of the observed cyclones. The successful simulation is attributed to the realistic representation of the large-scale circulation and the embedded convective vortices. Thus, NICAM provides high temporal and spatial resolution data sets for detailed studies of tropical cyclone genesis and evolution, potentially ushering in a new era for weather and climate predictions."

From GRL abstract.

Successfully modeling 2 TCs from a few weeks before formation, through cyclogenesis, and then the full evolution of the systems. Cool.

Now if we could take this methodology and come up with an operational TC model capable and skilled at cyclogenesis through landfall (and beyond) with a 3 week lead time. Ah, the possibilities...
...btw....when I said earlier that I find this stuff fascinating...I in no way meant to convey, in any fashion whatsoever, that I actually understand any of it...
Quoting presslord:
...btw....when I said earlier that I find this stuff fascinating...I in no way meant to convey, in any fashion whatsoever, that I actually understand any of it...


And I thought so highly of you...
Quoting smmcdavid:


And I thought so highly of you...


Long time, no see. Where have ya been?

(tongue-in-cheek) What's a girl like you doing in a nice place like this?
Quoting presslord:
...btw....when I said earlier that I find this stuff fascinating...I in no way meant to convey, in any fashion whatsoever, that I actually understand any of it...
I'll have to second that emotion.
By the otherway, Did you get arrested yesterday for yanking the canvas off the ol' Wrangler and heading to the beach?
Ha ha... busy finishing school and setting up our new house. Our classes got moved to College Station because of Ike. But I finally graduated last Sunday. Now I'm training for a 5K and staying home with my son. I'm always checking in though.
Quoting smmcdavid:
Ha ha... busy finishing school and setting up our new house. Our classes got moved to College Station because of Ike. But I finally graduated last Sunday. Now I'm training for a 5K and staying home with my son. I'm always checking in though.


Congrats! Glad to hear y'all are doing well (have to be to do a 5k, that is).
not yesterday....but today offers another opportunity for them to catch me....
Thanks! We are all wonderful. I'm also collecting donations for the Houston Humane Society through active giving. Check out my blog for more info... he he.
Quoting presslord:
not yesterday....but today offers another opportunity for them to catch me....


And all this time I was thinking that the canvas to be removed was on the Jeep, not your person. Silly me.
yuk, yuk...
So how much stock does Al Gore own in the company making these rotor boats?
Quoting atmoaggie:

Pretending that we know all there is to know about the planet's natural cycles, especially in the oceans, is a sham.


atmoaggie, you're right - pretending we know something we don't is dangerous. Even more dangerous is pretending we don't know something we do.

Cumulative temp difference on a regression test show pretty decisively that CO2 is a factor. Not good enough? This matches scientific theory. Not good enough? It is evidenced on a much greater scale in Venus's atmosphere. It rains sulphuric acid there. Not nice weather.

Believing humans can't alter the atmosphere is naive. It is measured. Believing an altered atmosphere isn't going to cause temperature (and other) change is also naive.

The question isn't whether warming is happening, it's how much. Some have pointed to the normal solar cycle as the source of the warming trend, but those familiar with regression testing understands that it's the cumulative second order effect we're talking about, not the direct first order sunshine. Yes, the solar cycle does affect temp. Pretty obvious. The greenhouse effect delta is less direct than the solar cycle, and shows up only as an integral term slowly creeping things up a tiny bit year by year.

That's why scientists talk about confidence intervals on how much warming is happening, not whether it is or not. You put a blanket on a person at night, and you're more interested in discussing whether it's warm enough - not whether the blanket warms at all!

Waiting for proof there will not be catastrophic climate change before action is like asking for proof you'll die if you fall off a 16 foot cliff, and not changing your course based on it being in your path. Maybe you'll just be shook up if you go over, maybe you get hurt, maybe you die. But if you pretend the cliff ain't there until there's proof you'll get hurt falling off, I'm not going to follow you over it.

In psychology, rejecting raw information that doesn't fit into your worldview is called cognitive dissonance. From your family, it's called lying to yourself.
What fools we are! Our naturally fearful species is whipped into a frenzy by self-promoting parasites and we are all set to running from the climate change bogeyman. World population rejects the massive taxing schemes proposed, so "science" finds another answer.

These climate "experts" should be forced to take the Hippocratic oath before they do anything more. "First do no harm." Massive sulfur injections into the stratosphere? What then? It will all fall back to Earth in a year or less as sulfuric acid. 66 ships spraying sea salt? Then the rain will contain too much salt for the survival of food crops. Wind farms? What effect will that have on surface winds and weather. Solar panels will have untoward effects on albedo and insolation if done in an economically significant quantity.

We need to stop these money and power grabbing "experts" for whom the real anomaly is the difference between their grant amounts and the positive effect they might ever have on anything but their own economic security. The fallacy is in thinking that "experts" can change the weather to make it better here on Earth. That is the fraud. No matter how hard we try, we can never do more than talk about the weather. It is hubris to believe we can alter it for our convenience. Anybody wants to trade his car for a bicycle, be my guest. If government attempts to mandate that, there will be a revolution.

They can all go to Poland and talk all they want. Just so they understand that we will never accept their "remedy" to the natural variation of Earth's climate, which goes up and down according to its own schedule, and so far has done nothing unusual. That is clear for anyone to see, except for those who insist that they see the clothes the emperor is not wearing.
We can change the Face of Iracus..Link
Boston College Webcam of the Snow Storm Link



Boston Skyline


This view from the top of the Merkert Chemistry Center takes in a portion of the diamond used by the women's softball team, the 135-acre Chestnut Hill Reservoir, and the skyscrapers of downtown Boston, just six miles away. Boston College was originally located in the citys South End an area to the right of the two tallest buildings on the horizon, the John Hancock Tower (left), built in 1976, and the Prudential Building, built in 1964.
Quoting mgersh:
Just so they understand that we will never accept their "remedy" to the natural variation of Earth's climate, which goes up and down according to its own schedule, and so far has done nothing unusual. That is clear for anyone to see, except for those who insist that they see the clothes the emperor is not wearing.


Just curious, what do you think is causing the "natural variation" you mention? Likely something that has already been shown not to have any effect (e.g. cosmic rays, which were disproved by yet another study just recently). Some even claim that greenhouse gasses are increasing naturally (though evidence shows otherwise). And for nothing unusual, maybe you should read some of the stuff here (methane release, ice melt, etc).
You should also read this, a history of the science (timeline here); scientists did not just pick carbon dioxide as the cause of the observed warming because "it fits"; they also looked at everything else as well (as studies like the one posted in my previous comment show). Nor do they exclude natural variations either - the observations show that there are variations but they can't account for the warming trend; models also cannot properly simulate the recent climate without either natural variations or increases in greenhouse gasses from human activity, though prior to about the 1850s they can do so with natural variations only, mainly solar and volcanic (on longer timescales, things like Milankovitch (ice age) cycles, but that is irrelevant on the timescales of concern). That said, according to the last, temperatures should be falling right now, peaking about 6,000 years ago:

It should also be noted that the ice age cycles themselves cannot be explained by orbital variations alone, as the temperature changes are too large - a feedback is required, which is provided by greenhouse gasses (a common argument is that in this case temperature rise precedes CO2 levels, the opposite of today, but that doesn't mean that the opposite can't happen; the increase in CO2 from warming further amplifies the warming, as stated before, we know that the increase today is not natural):



(notice that temperature rises rapidly then slowly falls instead of following the Milankovitch cycles; the former is due to CO2 feedback and ice melt amplifying the warming and latter due to CO2 taking time to decline)

There have also been past examples of extreme global warming due to sudden increase in greenhouse gasses as well; indeed, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum 55 million years ago in particular offers a glimpse of what could happen, especially if those methane hydrates (large amounts of methane emissions from such have been recently found) continue to melt, which is obviously concerning since at that point it is unlikely we could stop it.
Not to make enemies, but the more I read the more I realize that GW skeptics can't handle change and GW theorists can. I like the forced bicycle idea though. We may decide to ban 20 gph or less vehicles at least.

Better still, replace the urban sprawl with easily traversed townships and villages. Make junk mail illegal as well while you're at it please. That ought to save some trees at least. Thank you.
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number SEVENTEEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
4:30 AM ACST December 20 2008
=====================================

At 3:30 am Australia CST, Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Two [986 hPa] located at 14.9S 128.1E or 65 kms north of Wyndham and 170 kms west southwest of Port Keats has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-southwest at 6 knots.

The destructive core of Tropical Cyclone Billy is currently crossing the coast north of Wyndham.

The cyclone is expected to weaken into a tropical low by tonight as it crosses the north Kimberley region, but may re-develop into a tropical cyclone late in the weekend if it moves off the west Kimberley coast, causing gales between Kalumburu and Cockatoo Island.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
=================================
12 HRS: 15.1S 127.5E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
24 HRS: 15.4S 126.7E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 15.7S 124.9E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 17.1S 122.7E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone 'Billy' has moved steadily WSW during the past 3-6 hours and is now crossing the east Kimberley coast north of Wyndham. Tightly wrapped spiral banding is evident on Wyndham radar and animated IR satellite imagery continues to show persistent cold dense cloud over the LLCC. The central cold cover cloud pattern indicates arrested development probably due to interaction with the coast.

Dvorak analysis at 1800 UTC based on MET/PAT=3.5. A consensus of NWP forecasts indicates continued W or WSW movement across the Kimberley region. There is the possibility of redevelopment off the west Kimberley coast between 48 and 72 hours, if the system maintains a generally WSW track.
Quoting barryweather:
Not to make enemies, but the more I read the more I realize that GW skeptics can't handle change and GW theorists can. I like the forced bicycle idea though. We may decide to ban 20 gph or less vehicles at least.

Better still, replace the urban sprawl with easily traversed townships and villages. Make junk mail illegal as well while you're at it please. That ought to save some trees at least. Thank you.


I think we need another plaque. That would solve several problems.
A prayer out to the survivors of Caylee Anthony.
The remains found in the woods near her home were positively identified as Caylee.
I can not fathom that kind of pain. May the Lord give them strength.
Another angel lights the sky and watches over God's little critters.
Ha...That makes me feel better about slacking on framing and displaying my degree.

(Correction to last post.... mpg instead of gph...too many agricultural abbreviations in muscle memory)
The Cause of Cold Weather Is Global Warming?


Thursday, December 18, 2008

By Neil Cavuto



You probably heard the news that it snowed in Las Vegas.

Yep, Sin City becoming slush city.

Hell truly has frozen over.

Weird thing is, what's happening in Vegas isn't staying in Vegas.

Cold weather and nasty storms already the norm. And it isn't technically even winter yet.

First time southern Nevada's seen anything like this in 30 years.

First time southern California's been looking at 30 degrees this early in 20 years.

So I'm looking at all this wacky weather and asking a buddy of mine who's an environmentalist — you see, I live fair and balanced.

I ask him, "What's going on here? I thought you said I could throw out my parka for a thong?"

The image immediately caused him to recoil.

But he collected himself, then reminded me, "Neil, this is global warming."

"Wait a minute," I said.

"I thought global warming meant, I don't know, warming?"

No, he assured me, this is all part of God's great reaction to man's not-so-great wrecking of his planet.

Now I'm not the sharpest meteorological tool on the map, but even I wondered how my tree-hugging pal could have it both ways.

He assured me last year snow would soon be a memory.

That the oceans would be warming.

More hurricanes would be coming.

And glaciers would be melting.

But more snow than ever this year.

The first snow Vegas has seen in 30 years.

Temperatures below zero in at least 12 states in the Midwest and west, the most so early in any year.

And all coming after a hurricane season that brought largely bupkis this year.

"It's all part of warming," my friend reminded me.

You see, his is not a new forecast, just a revised one.

Where you can kind of have your environmental cake and eat it too.

Where the earth getting warmer is warming, and the earth getting cooler is warming.

So nothing to stop Washington from big environmental spending.

You see, my friend is pushing Congress for more such spending.

I wished him luck as he headed out.

And suggested one other thing: Bring a coat.

Post 68 was in response to post 66. Agreed Shepherd. I have two children myself and cry when I think about her story.
I think we need another plaque. That would solve several problems.

Hmmm... Glass half empty type?
I guess you could say that... although I did just notice my typo... lol.
I'm asking Santa for some...WAVES - NEXT BUMP...maybe Monday -- it'll be a quickie -- but if we behave another blast around Christmas - monday 1-2 ft North Swell.....SO JUST BEHAVE
# 69 That reminds me of this Link
WOW, Dr Masters, very interesting.

Just my "Flat Earth" mindset that says "NO" to Geoengineering....especially until it becomes absolutely necessary. which I hope will never happen and I really don't think it will.

The Earth goes thru cycles of cooling and warming periods. Let's not do anything to permanently damage Mother Earth. Except to keep her clean and like Skye said, let's plant some appropriate trees.. try using nature for nature first...

I'll bet if you ask all these people who are having all these ice storms and record cold this winter and winter is not even offically here yet... if you ask them if they wanted us to make the planet even colder they would scream at you.

A tropical or subtropical environment is not too bad folks.. I live in one.


(here come the GW warming people to get me..gotta run..)
It is becoming very obvious that the only way to solve this Global Warming problem is that we have the UN set up a lottery to enact MASSIVE SUICIDE/DEATH OF 95% OF HUMANS. Problem Solved
Quoting tornadofan:
I think we need another plaque. That would solve several problems.

Hmmm... Glass half empty type?
Nope, it's always half full...0/2 ? Can't have zero in the numerator, non operation...LOL
# 76 Then we would have to eat them or the corpses would further exacerbate the warming.
Quoting tornadofan:
I think we need another plaque. That would solve several problems.



a plaque? did you mean plague? 'cause I really don't see what good a plaque is gonna do....
Quoting barryweather:
# 76 Then we would have to eat them or the corpses would further exacerbate the warming.


Exacerbate... what a great word.
Quoting NRAamy:
Quoting tornadofan:
I think we need another plaque. That would solve several problems.



a plaque? did you mean plague? 'cause I really don't see what good a plaque is gonna do....


Oh, that was my original post... yeah, typo. Mentioned it a few posts back. LOL. I did mean a plague obviously, or maybe not so obvious for some.
Afternoon from the snow suburbs of Boston
Quoting BtnTx:
It is becoming very obvious that the only way to solve this Global Warming problem is that we have the UN set up a lottery to enact MASSIVE SUICIDE/DEATH OF 95% OF HUMANS. Problem Solved
UN???...You first.
Quoting seflagamma:
WOW, Dr Masters, very interesting.

Just my "Flat Earth" mindset that says "NO" to Geoengineering....especially until it becomes absolutely necessary. which I hope will never happen and I really don't think it will.

The Earth goes thru cycles of cooling and warming periods. Let's not do anything to permanently damage Mother Earth. Except to keep her clean and like Skye said, let's plant some appropriate trees.. try using nature for nature first...

I'll bet if you ask all these people who are having all these ice storms and record cold this winter and winter is not even offically here yet... if you ask them if they wanted us to make the planet even colder they would scream at you.

A tropical or subtropical environment is not too bad folks.. I live in one.


(here come the GW warming people to get me..gotta run..)


LOL... I think you are clueless... first of all we are already messing with the Earth (unless you happen to know something that millions of scientists have been unable to discover). Second, the stuff about cold ignores normal weather variability (what about all of the record high temperatures; denialists of course ignore those); for example, how cold was November? Lets find out!

The November 2008 temperature for the contiguous United States was warmer than the long-term average, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The January-November 2008 temperature was near average.

The average November temperature of 44.5 degrees F was 2.0 degrees F above the 20th Century average. Precipitation across the contiguous United States in November averaged 1.93 inches, which is 0.20 inch below the 1901-2000 average.

Link


Well, it was warmer, not cooler than average.

And the stuff about "Oh, a subtropical climate is nice". Let's see you try to grow staple food crops in Florida... you can't (not to mention that Florida itself will cease to exist in the future if things continue as they have, those who think that "oh, we can just grow crops in Canada or Siberia" don't realize that the soil is not good, plus there is less light). You are also mislead (apparently) by reports that cold weather kills far more people than hot weather, which is false.
Wow. Michael, you are kind of hostile. I thought this blog was supposed to be for discussion, not ridicule.
#81 sorry....blonde.....duh

I was still thinking about saving a few trees. Scientists...plaques...framed degrees...Half the population of the US has little faith in the "liberal" science community. My bad.

Point is...lets leave the world better than we found it. I try to teach my cub scouts that and they are in second grade. This isn't a political debate as much as an ethical debate. I hope we can all agree that burning millions of tons of stuff pollutes the Earth and there has to be a better way.
LOL... I think you are clueless

STL...that was uncalled for...Gamma never insulted anyone on here...try and show a little compassion dude...
Barry... no problem. I agree with you that we need to do what we can. And that's really all we can do.
I've eaten tomatoes, corn, watermelon, cucumbers, onions, and many other veggies grown in Florida. It just grows earlier in the year (and sometimes a 2nd season). Plus, there are lemon, grapefruit and oranges as well!
Quoting theshepherd:
UN???...You first.


Oh wow! Well if the United Nations could use a death ray device it could get millions/most of us at the same time. If not all of us as Planet Earth would do so well with out all of us humans messing it up. After all this planet was created for ?
Ok, so I'm gonna drop my two cents in the bucket on this one. IF climate change is indeed occurring (not saying it isn't), and we unintentionally have begun certain climate related events, what happens when we intentionally try and fix something we don't understand well? I'm thinking this idea has caution tape all around it.
Quoting charlottefl:
Ok, so I'm gonna drop my two cents in the bucket on this one. IF climate change is indeed occurring (not saying it isn't), and we unintentionally have begun certain climate related events, what happens when we intentionally try and fix something we don't understand well? I'm thinking this idea has caution tape all around it.


I agree completely!
#85 I agree....I beleive that our impact is mostly negative on the Earth and that we have to come together to deal with the issue. No need to push anyone away.

BTW I have enjoyed your posts as some of the most concise argument on the web to prove GW exists.

I am glad you are here to cut through rhetoric.

As we say in extension, if you change the attitude, behavior, or practices of one person out of one hundred...you have done well.
Global Nov temps are out..

NOAA: Global Temperature for November Fourth Warmest on Record

Hey Vort~ Just because it snowed in Nevada doesn't change the N. Hemisphere being way behind on it's snowfall:)

NCDC's are out today. Turned out 2nd & 3rd coldest Nov for the Stratosphere.
Some examples of weather variability (just notice how jagged the graphs are, too) for some places that have had notable cold-related weather recently:

New Orleans (they had snow a few days ago):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Warmer than normal over the past year (last few days have been well above normal too; the snow was during a rather brief cold snap - which wasn't even record breaking either, only that precipitation fell thus the snowfall)...

Denver (recently had record cold):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Yet another brief cold snap...

Montana:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Just another brief cold snap following well above normal temperatures (I also see they had a few similarly cold days last winter, likely a pretty regular thing up there).

The people who deny global warming like seflagamma only focus on the cold spells, completely ignoring the warm spells; to them, the last graph above (for example) looks like this:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
Neil Cavuto just used 'snow in Vegas' to refute GW...now...there's some high minded discourse for ya....
I don't think you can look at graphs for the last year to make your arguements for or against global warming. This, if it is happening, occurs over much larger periods of time. I just don't think that those graphs by themselves contribute good data.
ROFLMAO,

I knew Michael would come after me with both of his liberal Man Made Global Warming Attack Arms a flying! LOL


Thanks SM and Amy! and Tornado! LOL

I always believed if one has to attack someone else with insults to make themself look good; that is the person with the problem, not the person he attacked. I have enough self confidence in myself... plus I knew he could come flying.. there are another few I expected also..but most of them would have been a little more polite.

Michael has been known to be a hot head and not very nice when he gets all riled up.


The last I heard even the scientist have not agreed on any of this so I understood it was still open to debate and not a done deal.
Re 74 Michael
No sweatyda Miss seflagamma.
Millions??? of scientist? OMG..ROFLMAO
That's just Michael being Michael.
Sometimes he goes over the edge with his super egotistical name calling as he frolics hand in hand with Gavin through the liberal forest called " I can insult you if I want".
You are a well known sweetheart on this blog and a Merry Christmas to you my dear.
I personally believe that the earth is in fact undergoing climatic changes, but not being one of the "million" scientists I state my feelings as opinion. I welcome the alternative.
Please give me comfort for the outlook of my grand youngins'.
#97 True. However, the graphs include a baseline for the statistical average temperatures. From what time period are the baselines calculated?
Quoting Skyepony:
Global Nov temps are out..

NOAA: Global Temperature for November Fourth Warmest on Record

Hey Vort~ Just because it snowed in Nevada doesn't change the N. Hemisphere being way behind on it's snowfall:)

NCDC's are out today. Turned out 2nd & 3rd coldest Nov for the Stratosphere.


That reminds me:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Also, snowcover actually IS above average now - for the last day or two...

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...but the longer term shows decreasing snowcover with occasional periods of above average snowcover (again, certain people only note where it has been above average, ignoring the TREND):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
MichaelSTL~ FL is the nations winter food basket. It's good growing year round, save the occational 'cane wiping the crops out. The better arguement would be we don't need it going under, though we may pave over the last of the farms 1st..

Very interesting the SSH anomilies you posted earlier. I check them from time to time & that's disturbing...
Quoting theshepherd:
Re 74 Michael
No sweatyda Miss seflagamma.
Millions??? of scientist? OMG..ROFLMAO
That's just Michael being Michael.
Sometimes he goes over the edge with his super egotistical name calling as he frolics hand in hand with Gavin through the liberal forest called " I can insult you if I want".
You are a well known sweetheart on this blog and a Merry Christmas to you my dear.
I personally believe that the earth is in fact undergoing climatic changes, but not being one of the "million" scientists I state my feelings as opinion. I welcome the alternative.
Please give me comfort for the outlook of my grand youngins'.



thanks, we were thinking the same thing at the same time!!! and thank you.. and Merry Christmas to you and yours!
Hey gamma... good for you. Just to clear things up... I do believe in global warming or "climate change" and I do believe that we are contributing to it. I, however, don't believe that anyone should be attacked for stating their opinion.

I participated in a global warming debate recently and one subject that came up was whether or not their is a scientific conscensus. I believe that there is. There will always be people, some very intelligent, that don't agree with the majority.
Quoting smmcdavid:
I don't think you can look at graphs for the last year to make your arguements for or against global warming. This, if it is happening, occurs over much larger periods of time. I just don't think that those graphs by themselves contribute good data.


If? LOL...

Well, this should satisfy you (OTOH, probably won't):



Also, I posted those graphs to mainly refute some people's ideas about how "cold" it has been recently, and for certain areas (one place of course says nothing about the globe) that have had cold or snow of some notability.
I believe the Earth has warmed up the past 20 years...but I was around in the 70's when we all were fearful of Global Cooling and Black Rain which was going to kill us all.. people were freaking out over all that, which went the other way in a few years to be forgotten.

I know the Earth is warming, and I love the Earth and think we should care for her better than we do.. but I also think things happen in the enviornment and in nature and we have to just live with it, not try to change it.

enough,
thanks everyone who stood up for me even if you disagree with my thoughts.. and they are thoughts...I am not a scientist either.

Also, it is true that temperatures globally are lower this year than in recent years, but not by that much; the following also explains why (notice the bottommost graph labeled "Nino 3.4 SST"):



Also notice what has been happening during the most recent few seasons, after a decrease early this year (some people have been trying to tell you that it has been something more than it actually is, even flinging around stuff like "An ice age is imminent!"). The following also shows the same thing (notice where the coolest temperatures have been; on the other hand, notice which areas have been warmer than recent years):

Quoting seflagamma:
I believe the Earth has warmed up the past 20 years...but I was around in the 70's when we all were fearful of Global Cooling


Global cooling in the 1970s again? Jeeze... how many more times do I have to debunk that myth?

The global cooling myth

Every now and again, the myth that "we shouldn't believe global warming predictions now, because in the 1970's they were predicting an ice age and/or cooling" surfaces. Recently, George Will mentioned it in his column (see Will-full ignorance) and the egregious Crichton manages to say "in the 1970's all the climate scientists believed an ice age was coming" (see Michael Crichton’s State of Confusion ). You can find it in various other places too [here, mildly here, etc]. But its not an argument used by respectable and knowledgeable skeptics, because it crumbles under analysis. That doesn't stop it repeatedly cropping up in newsgroups though.

I should clarify that I'm talking about predictions in the scientific press. There were some regrettable things published in the popular press (e.g. Newsweek; though National Geographic did better). But we're only responsible for the scientific press. If you want to look at an analysis of various papers that mention the subject, then try http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/.


(a good example of why you shouldn't believe everything the media says, or what you read in some book; this was the result of confusion over Milankovitch/Ice Age cycles)
109. BtnTx
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Also, it is true that temperatures globally are lower this year than in recent years, but not by that much; the following also explains why (notice the bottommost graph labeled "Nino 3.4 SST"):



Also notice what has been happening during the most recent few seasons, after a decrease early this year (some people have been trying to tell you that it has been something more than it actually is, even flinging around stuff like "An ice age is imminent!"). The following also shows the same thing (notice where the coolest temperatures have been; on the other hand, notice which areas have been warmer than recent years):



So what are you proposing that we do?
Quoting presslord:
Neil Cavuto just used 'snow in Vegas' to refute GW...now...there's some high minded discourse for ya....
OMG press...Say it ain't so.
I wish I could say "that's just Neil being Neil" but Holy Cow I'm shattered with that one. LOL
#106 Guess it usually isn't as bad as we think it is going to be.
Here in S. Ontario, we had about 7 inches of snow today (about 18 cm), on top of the 7 cm already on the ground (3 in). We could get a half metre by the New Year. Snowdrifts are 2 ft (60 cm) high!


This is a much better graph to make your arguement. You can see that CO2 levels (which correlate with temps) are both higher than they have been in the last 400 thousand years.

And did you not read my posts... I agree with you, just not your methodology or attitude.
I don't think we should alter the Earth's climate any more than we have already. Even if we reduce our emissions to zero by 2050, there would still be a ~70% chance of a climate emergency if nothing is done to intervene. Maybe we need a volcano to cool everything down, because paradoxially the aerosols emmited by anthropogenic sources have masked the effects of global warming by about 20%.
I can disprove global warming right now....just come to my house....wife has it like a beer cooler in here....
I suppose at some point after sea levels and temperatures rise further, as they have during previous warm periods in Earth's history there will likely be another ice age. Hopefully it won't come on too fast. (Graphs seem to suggest slower cooling that warming. Also, I can't afford a better wetsuit.)
I'm gonna lock her out of the thermostat....
Quoting presslord:
I can disprove global warming right now....just come to my house....wife has it like a beer cooler in here....

LOL, that does not disprove global warming! Global warming is about averages, but we don't experience averages, we experience the extremes that are changed by a change of the average.
well....be that as it may....the average around here right now is too dadgummed cold...
Not everyplace has been warmer than normal over the last year, but there aren't many places (see map in comment 107); one example happens to be right where I live (I personally prefer cooler weather to hot weather):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
# 114 Yellowstone is due for an eruption. That would be bad though. Shepherd....Didn't you mention the hotspot moving under a more stable area? Does anyone have a link for that data?
Seriously...?
"Seriously" what?
Quoting Skyepony:
MichaelSTL~ FL is the nations winter food basket. It's good growing year round, save the occational 'cane wiping the crops out. The better arguement would be we don't need it going under, though we may pave over the last of the farms 1st..

Very interesting the SSH anomilies you posted earlier. I check them from time to time & that's disturbing...
LOL...Actually west Broward County is over 7' above mean sea level. Meaning Lauderhill,Plantation, etc. will be beach front property. Here in N Fla I'm 182' above mean sea level. Actually most of Fla will survive the 6' rise in sea level that "conservative science" predicts. There are indeed figures that show a cascade of devastating levels, but I'm not convinced.
Please tell me where I'm wrong. I'm a conservative ol' fart, but my mind is open.LOL
To play devil's advocate - how accurate were the land and sea temps in the late 1800's? (especially out over the vast Pacific?)

Also - who was tracking co2 emissions 400 years ago?

Also - who can prove that carbon dating works?
Vostok ice core data... is there any reason to believe it's not accurate?
Gotta help the boss be back later....blondeness don't hamper me...I was on page 3.
In regards to GEO engineering The Hippocratic oath has a line that says "first do no harm".......might be something to consider here.
We have thought a lot of things were benign, DDT for example --only to find out later...often at the expense of nature, that we were wrong

What I do not like about this... is we have no LONG VIEW of the repercussions of our actions
Quoting presslord:
"Seriously" what?


To post 120...
Ice core infoLink
Quoting smmcdavid:
Vostok ice core data... is there any reason to believe it's not accurate?


Is it just faith that it should be believed?
Sunshine is available for ALL pirates here on the Gulf Coast of Florida.

There be girls (canadian) in the water..... got to pick better geography.....LOL
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
I don't think we should alter the Earth's climate any more than we have already. Even if we reduce our emissions to zero by 2050, there would still be a ~70% chance of a climate emergency if nothing is done to intervene. Maybe we need a volcano to cool everything down, because paradoxially the aerosols emmited by anthropogenic sources have masked the effects of global warming by about 20%.


The problem with volcanoes is that they only affect temperatures for a few years at the most (as Pinatubo did in 1991), so we would have to regularly have Pinatubo-size eruptions (well, supervolcanic eruptions are another matter but they can be disregarded since they aren't very common). Also, you can find a post regarding volcanic activity here, including a relative lack of activity contributing to some of the warming in the early 20th century; interestingly, just that and greenhouse gasses fits pretty well to the observations:

Quoting tornadofan:


Is it just faith that it should be believed?


It's called science, technology... it's not always right, but it's then again it's research.
Quoting presslord:
I'm gonna lock her out of the thermostat....
Amigo...We all know there is no such thing as hot flashes. It's just her inner child playing with matches...And if you burn me on this one, I'll never speak to you again...
Quoting smmcdavid:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_core

Ice core info


Interesting...

Many materials can appear in an ice core. Layers can be measured in several ways to identify changes in composition. Small meteorites may be embedded in the ice. Volcanic eruptions leave identifiable ash layers. Dust in the core can be linked to increased desert area or wind speed.

Isotopic analysis of the ice in the core can be linked to temperature and global sea level variations. Analysis of the air contained in bubbles in the ice can reveal the palaeocomposition of the atmosphere, in particular CO2 variations. There are great problems relating the dating of the included bubbles to the dating of the ice, since the bubbles only slowly "close off" after the ice has been deposited.
Quoting barryweather:
# 114 Yellowstone is due for an eruption. That would be bad though. Shepherd....Didn't you mention the hotspot moving under a more stable area? Does anyone have a link for that data?

Yellowstone is not expected to erupt for another 25,000 years or so. It has experienced about 150 prior large eruptions, and the last one was abot 640,000 years ago. Domes, however, are still rising in the Yellowstone area.
We can't even get the biosphere fool proof -- this Geoengineering does not please me.

Even with seeds -- we are finding lots of trouble with the bio engineered food products given to horses -- the horses are showing some problems - serious allergies, digestion problems etc..... many horse owners avoid these foods completely..... seeing similar problems w/some dogs as well. Science tells us it's all good..........well, that is not what I'm seeing
dude....three years ago she had a hysterectomy....they swore this temperature crap would stop...it hasn't....I want my money back....
Seems like the cooks in the kitchen (us) think they can fix a boiling soup by adding more ingredients instead of lowering the flame
A "doomsday vault" is opening in Svalbard. Thousands of plant seeds have been stored as a "Noah's Ark" in a secure location. This is for emergency use in case of a GW emergency and will withstand hundreds of years of earthquakes, flooding, and even a nuclear attack.
#136 -- what do you want? It's not an exact science. Do have any better way to analyze data from 400,000 years ago?
106 gamma
"I was around in the 70's"???
Yeah, sweetheart that's as far as I care to go also...Mucho Smileys
press... ha ha!
change the numbers on the thermostat????........my spouse, Mr energy mizer keeps ME freezing..... Even duck taped the damn thing.........tells me to put on a sweater.....I mean what man tells you to put on more clothes LOL
142 - just no way to prove anything currenly, I believe. As you say, it needs to be researched more. Just don't like it when others (not you) slam others for not believing theories.

Not believing scientific law is bad. Not believe theories is good, until it is proven law.
Don't wait for GW as if it's a good thing, 98% of its effects will be bad or devastating. I've read about 10 recent books on GW and they all point to a bad outcome if we do nothing.
Quoting BtnTx:


So what are you proposing that we do?


The most important thing to do is to get off of fossil fuels, and not just to halt emissions since there are finite reserves (some have said that oil production has already reached its peak, as indicated by relatively stable production the last few years despite rising prices which normally result in increased production; the current fall in prices is misleading because that is due to reduced demand from the recession). Of course, there is a lot more coal than oil, but even that will eventually reach a peak (reserve estimates are misleading as well because you can't just keep producing at an increasing rate until they are gone, production follows the well-known Hubbert's peak curve, peaking when half of the total reserves are gone). Of course, there are many other problems with fossil fuels as well (blowing up mountains to get coal for example, and pollution). Incidentally, the fossil fuel industry wants you to believe otherwise (for obvious reasons); see here for a recent ludicrous example (they were forced to remove it).
Quoting tornadofan:
142 - just no way to prove anything currenly, I believe. As you say, it needs to be researched more. Just don't like it when others (not you) slam others for not believing theories.

Not believing scientific law is bad. Not believe theories is good, until it is proven law.


I see your point, but some theories (not this one) will never be a law. Does that mean we shouldn't believe in things like evolution?
ahhhhh back in the 70's....... can I keep my brains and get back the chassis?
I mean what man tells you to put on more clothes LOL
Action: Quote | Ignore User

certainly not me....
Does that mean we shouldn't believe in things like evolution?

Until someone proves it, yes. One can find holes in that theory if one searches hard enough - like any theory.
Quoting surfmom:
change the numbers on the thermostat????........my spouse, Mr energy mizer keeps ME freezing..... Even duck taped the damn thing.........tells me to put on a sweater.....I mean what man tells you to put on more clothes LOL

If you live in a climate where heating your house is nessecary for part of the year, it can be a waste of energy even to keep your house above 16C (60F), especially if heat leaks from your house. Really, think about it, wearing a T-shirt (inside or outside) in a non-tropical climate in winter is just wrong (yet many people where I live wear T-shirts outside when it's below freezing).
Oh, you lost me on that one... I was a biology major...
And based on your last statement, that means there shouldn't be any religions..., right?
Quoting smmcdavid:
Oh, you lost me on that one... I was a biology major...


I was a math major - there it has to be proven to be believed. Like the law that states that the number 1 is equal to the number .999999999999999999999999999 (infinity 9's). Try to find a number between 1 and .999999. Can't be done...
Quoting smmcdavid:
And based on your last statement, that means there shouldn't be any religions..., right?


Religion is not law (well - for the free world anyway). Religion is faith.

One can say it takes more faith to believe in evolution than it does in God creating the world in 7 days.
Why? There is much more evidence for evolution than God.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

If you live in a climate where heating your house is nessecary for part of the year, it can be a waste of energy even to keep your house above 16C (60F), especially if heat leaks from your house. Really, think about it, wearing a T-shirt (inside or outside) in a non-tropical climate in winter is just wrong (yet many people where I live wear T-shirts outside when it's below freezing).


In Siberia they are apparently so used to cold (-60 temps are common) that they don't even wear shirts outside. Really (LOL)
Quoting surfmom:
ahhhhh back in the 70's....... can I keep my brains and get back the chassis?


rofl!!!! yes, the 70's... I was hot stuff back then.. when I wasn't giving birth to one of the kids! LOL


Wish I had today's brains but yesterday's body! LOL
"One can say it takes more faith to believe in evolution than it does in God creating the world in 7 days."

Only if one is ignorant.
Michael - 100 percent agreement in regard to the fuels -- dirty is dirty and we humans are gross with our dirty habits -- any pollution that hurts the web of life should be reevaluated and changed -- we are all interconnected. There are many other energy means -- but Corporatacy and the Banksters have done a fine job curtailing these advances.

Also a small disagree - fossil fuels. According to some, Charles Walters of ACRES USA magazine (along with other scientists) and believes that oil is always being produced - basically hydro carbons under heat and pressure... that would challenge the idea that we are running out. what we do know is using the earth's blood makes her sick... we need another way. I will try and find the science article I read this in.....buried somewhere
funny, some can agree to disagree and allow someone else to state their beliefs with respect.. and some have to resort to name calling....pity #161
153 Well you and my spouse are in agreement..... me I just get cold -- but I know he's right.

Those folks who can go out in the cold like that -- they have internal heaters.... and I wasn't born with that. On the other hand, I can run in the heat,90degress +, barely sweating, while others around drop from heat exhaustion...... I am a desert rose LOL
Oh my goodness -- it is sooooo good to be back here....
"funny, some can agree to disagree and allow someone else to state their beliefs with respect.. and some have to resort to name calling....pity #161"

Gamma, you better hope the body holds up 'cause you ain't got much going for you in the brains department. Maybe you can provide some solid scientific evidence that there is a god and he created the world in 7 days. I know that I can provide an veritable cornucopia of evidence that our existence is a result of evolution. Creationism most certainly not science, no matter how much you choose to deceive yourself.
I agree gamma - !!

I'm off - got domestic and some home nursing deeds to do. Good Night ALL
Quoting MichaelSTL:


In Siberia they are apparently so used to cold (-60 temps are common) that they don't even wear shirts outside. Really (LOL)
Duh? Check the humidity.
Post 166. BOOOOOOOO ! HIIISSSSSS !
BAD POST.

surfmom, it is so good to see you back here blogging away...so happy your son is getting better and better!
Quoting theshepherd:
Duh? Check the humidity.


The humidity? You mean the fat?
B/4 I go -- I appreciate, and I do agree with your opinion, but your opening line is sooo nasty -- why go there??? I want to read your opinion.... but I don't like reading the nasty....sorry
Quoting pangean:
"funny, some can agree to disagree and allow someone else to state their beliefs with respect.. and some have to resort to name calling....pity #161"

you better hope the body holds up 'cause you ain't got much going for you in the brains department.
173. DDR
Quoting smmcdavid:
Why? There is much more evidence for evolution than God.

Correct...'god is dead'
Yes -- it's good to be back.... got to fly off for now -- the reason he's on the couch healing IS because of divine intervention -- no science proof needed
"B/4 I go -- I appreciate, and I do agree with your opinion, but your opening line is sooo nasty -- why go there??? I want to read your opinion.... but I don't like reading the nasty....sorry"

Maybe you want to re-read #163. Sorry, but I have little tolerance for folks like that.
Well, looks like today is "Attack Gamma Day" On Dr Master's blog! LOL

I really thought we were able to post opinions here..but I guess not.
Quoting DDR:

Correct...'god is dead'
Sorry .... I see him everyday
Quoting pottery:
Post 166. BOOOOOOOO ! HIIISSSSSS !
BAD POST.



Science and God can co-exist, it's just that they use completely different methodologies: Religion is based on faith while science only trusts solid evidence. Scientific ideas are relatively frequently overturned while religion stays basicly the same.
Quoting pottery:
Post 166. BOOOOOOOO ! HIIISSSSSS !
BAD POST.



Thanks Pottery and Surfmom!
180. DDR
Quoting surfmom:
Sorry .... I see him everyday

I visited the tooth fairy yesterday and drank beer with fsm
"I really thought we were able to post opinions here..but I guess not."

My opinion is that anyone that tries to equate evolution and creationism is ignorant. You're the one that chose to attack me for expressing that opinion. Maybe you need to take a good look in the mirror, heh?
I have NO problem, with God/Science.
I have a problem with Pangean's un-warranted attack on Gamma.
OOohh, an Iggy in the winter thats a rare site.
""Sorry .... I see him everyday"

What's he look like?
Please refrain from personal attacks. Thank you.
186. DDR
Hey pottery,how's the weather on your side.
I Got 3.25 inches in the past couple days.
Quoting pangean:
"funny, some can agree to disagree and allow someone else to state their beliefs with respect.. and some have to resort to name calling....pity #161"

Gamma, you better hope the body holds up 'cause you ain't got much going for you in the brains department. Maybe you can provide some solid scientific evidence that there is a god and he created the world in 7 days. I know that I can provide an veritable cornucopia of evidence that our existence is a result of evolution. Creationism most certainly not science, no matter how much you choose to deceive yourself.
OK Genius...E=mc2.
Eienstien proved the existance of God. Would you agree that time had to begin to exist? For energy to exist, matter must move? Without matter there is nothing to move? Where did the matter come from oh ancient one? Without devine intervention there is no other "scientific" explanation.Show me...
We had seven inches of snow in just one day today. Two-foot high drifts!
currently 72 degrees at my house, after a high this afternoon of 81. pretty nice December day down here in SE Florida.
190. DDR
Quoting theshepherd:
OK Genius...E=mc2.
Eienstien proved the existance of God. Would you agree that time had to begin to exist? For energy to exist, matter must move? Without matter there is nothing to move? Where did the matter come from oh ancient one? Without devine intervention there is no other "scientific" explanation.Show me...

Here's a simple question for you,
Where did this divine creator come from?
And if you say it always existed then why didnt it create the universe 100 billion or a trillion years ago.
If the divine made the earth why is the interior molten rock?
"Where did the matter come from oh ancient one? "

Where did god come from? It's rather idiotic to argue that we have to invoke a god because science hasn't come up with the explanation yet. You seem like a real Medieval kind of guy. Name fits, I must say.
More severe gales and hurricane-force gales accompanied with torrential raining hitting Britain...

Scotland getting the worst this time...

BBC: Link

Torrential rain has been causing problems in many parts of Scotland.

Four people were rescued from vehicles engulfed in "waist high" flood water in Greenock. An elderly disabled man was taken to hospital for treatment.

Police in the south of Scotland warned motorists to take care in "horrendous driving conditions" across the region.

Meanwhile, Central Scotland Police said torrential rain had caused many of the area's main routes to become flooded or blocked with stranded cars.

Every road in and out of Falkirk was blocked and Central Scotland Fire and Rescue Service said they were dealing with numerous calls regarding flooding in the Falkirk, Denny and Larbert areas.

The vehicles in Greenock were caught in rising flood water in the town's Cumberland Road and Westmorland Road at about 1420 GMT.

A spokeswoman for the fire service said the incidents had now been dealt with, but the emergency services would remain at the scene for some time.

Richard Duncan, group commander with Strathclyde Fire and Rescue, said the disabled man who had been rescued had been in fear for his life.

"We were called out to a flooding incident where we had reports of a gentleman trapped in his vehicle up to waist height," he said.

"The gentleman was extremely upset and was quite concerned that he wasn't going to be able to get out.

"We managed to calm him down and, using specialist personal protection equipment, manhandle him out of the vehicle and hand him over to the Scottish Ambulance Service."

Mr Duncan said fire crews had dealt with around nine incidents in Paisley, Port Glasgow, Greenock and Houston in which people had to be rescued from their vehicles by boat.

This included a woman and her young child who were stuck in a car for two hours as water levels began to rise.

In the Inverclyde area, firefighters were called to 19 reports of problems caused by flooding.

Mr Duncan said no-one had been seriously injured as a result of the flooding and they had no reports of flooding in any properties.

He added that the rain had subsided and they were not anticipating any major problems overnight.

Dumfries and Galloway Constabulary said the A76 road was closed between Kelloholm and Kirkconnel because of the flooding and there were also problems on the A74.
Quoting pottery:
I have NO problem, with God/Science.
I have a problem with Pangean's un-warranted attack on Gamma.


I don't either, though I think some people do take the Bible a little too literally (i.e. the world was created in just 7 days, I see that not literally but as symbolism; this doesn't necessarily conflict with what science says). It all depends on how one interprets it however and I am not one to bash other people's religious views.
About geoengineering: no solution to GW is perfect. All have their challenges, disadvantages, and complications. Yet any adequate solution to climate change may prove to be nessecary.
LOL, I see this blog continues to sink in the mud - full of heavy, mindless attitudes, heartless spirit, and full of omniscient arrogance.

Geoengineering? LMAO - like little, feeble people can actually mold the continuity of this earth which has survived for millions of years without man's "so-called" wisdom! Some really think they're just too special, too smart.

Trips to the dentist are more entertaining and fulfilling than the laxative parading around in this blog.

Enjoy the circus, everyone! Oh, and watch where you step! ;)
A few decent folk left yet, MLC. ;)
MLC, in defense of this blog. The past couple of days were filled with good, pertinent discussion.
Within the last hour or so, things have degenerated fast.
So it goes........
Quoting pangean:
"One can say it takes more faith to believe in evolution than it does in God creating the world in 7 days."

Only if one is ignorant.


The above quote was making fun of Tornado in post #157. I never got involved in the God debate here I just found it offensive that pagean would attack Tornado so I posted this.

Quoting seflagamma:
funny, some can agree to disagree and allow someone else to state their beliefs with respect.. and some have to resort to name calling....pity #161


that is not an attack; just a request to respect other's opinion and to disagree nicely.

then I got blasted by Pagean about my physical and mental abilities and was brought into a debate about which I never contributed.
This whole mess has evolved and the non believers have come out in full force.

Get it straight, Gamma did not start a God vs Science debate here... you assumed I did because I stuck up for someone else's comment.

199. tb1
Who said God's Day was 24 hours long. I don't know any who was there or that it says 24 hours in the Bible
Quoting pangean:
"funny, some can agree to disagree and allow someone else to state their beliefs with respect.. and some have to resort to name calling....pity #161"

Gamma, you better hope the body holds up 'cause you ain't got much going for you in the brains department. Maybe you can provide some solid scientific evidence that there is a god and he created the world in 7 days. I know that I can provide an veritable cornucopia of evidence that our existence is a result of evolution. Creationism most certainly not science, no matter how much you choose to deceive yourself.
Hi cowboy, I know why I usually do not hang out here anymore.. I will carefully follow you out of this blog and hope I don't step into a pile of it on way out.

Gamms, please, ignore the morons. Use the ignore and ban features. Apparently, admin is only lax when it fits their mission statement (whatever that is!)
Quoting seflagamma:
Hi cowboy, I know why I usually do not hang out here anymore.. I will carefully follow you out of this blog and hope I don't step into a pile of it on way out.




There ya go, Gamms! Much better blogs and folks with whom to commune.

(No offense Pottery, Cotillion - I like you just fine!)
me too... some really good people here, just have to put up with those that want to fight all of the time if you want to be here .
It increasingly disturbs me that the values that made this country great have also allowed for the venue of juvenile remarks and attacks upon the same age groups that gave them the right to make such remarks.
Insulting fellow citizens through cyber space that disagree and making naughty little remarks without man to man confrontation is the height of cowardice. You all know who you are. And cowards you all shall remain. Some call you trolls, others call you cowards.
So go ahead, beat up on our fine citizens like gamma. What can she do about it? Some of us, and you know who we are, await the moment to met you in person.
Go ahead and slam me with your cowardly genius and hide behind your "mommy cyber space". Never will you say these things to my face.Never!!!
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Gamms, please, ignore the morons. Use the ignore and ban features. Apparently, admin is only lax when it fits their mission statement (whatever that is!)

How exactly do you use the ignore and ban features? Where can you view an ignore list? Sorry my account is only less than 4 months old and I'm just wondering.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

How exactly do you use the ignore and ban features? Where can you view an ignore list? Sorry my account is only less than 4 months old and I'm just wondering.


Link

Beneath each comment there is a button titled 'Ignore User', as well.

Hope that answers your query. :)
Not sure if it's NHSAD affecting some... (No Hurricane Season Affective Disorder) but those that may be are... a bit of treatment:



Gotta admit, that's a textbook lookin' typhoon.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
8:00 am ACST December 20 2008
=====================================

Immediate Tropical Cyclone Advice

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island areas from Mitchell Plateau in Western Australia to Port Keats in the Northern Territory.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island areas from Cockatoo Island to Mitchell Plateau.

At 6:30 am Ausralia CST, Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Two [987 hPa] located at 14.9S 128.0E or 65 kilometres north northwest of Wyndham and 180 kilometres west southwest of Port Keats has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knot. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

The destructive core of Tropical Cyclone Billy is currently crossing the coast north of Wyndham.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour currently being experienced within 25 kilometres of the cyclone centre will extend further inland during the morning and weaken.
Trinidad weather--
Heavy rains over the past few days have resulted in flooding in the valleys around the capital city, Port-of-Spain.
Cars have been washed away, damage to property and roads/bridges have also occured. No injuries or loss of life have been reported, since last Tues. when a death was the result of a mudslide.
The weather remains unsettled, and more rain is in the forecast.
"Go ahead and slam me with your cowardly genius and hide behind your "mommy cyber space". Never will you say these things to my face.Never!!!"

Dude, you have way too much testosterone flowing there. You were just being too clever for your own good and I put you in your place. No need to threaten violence.
Pangean and DDR
What fine representatives of manhood you both represent. Mommy cyber space protects you well and your opportunities to insult women and men further than arms length.
Xmas Glitter trumps Idiocy every time,..




Quoting pottery:
Trinidad weather--
Heavy rains over the past few days have resulted in flooding in the valleys around the capital city, Port-of-Spain.
Cars have been washed away, damage to property and roads/bridges have also occured. No injuries or loss of life have been reported, since last Tues. when a death was the result of a mudslide.
The weather remains unsettled, and more rain is in the forecast.


Ack, not good. :( Glad to hear that injuries and fatalities have been kept to a minimum.

Is it the 'wet season' over there?
"What fine representatives of manhood you both represent."

Seriously, this is your idea of intelligent discourse? I've heard more intelligent comebacks from 12 year olds in the school yard.
Cot, wet season officially ends Dec. But it can continue raining to March, like this year did.
The problem in the City and environs is too much building on hillsides. Removed the forest, paved with concrete, asphalt and roof-sheeting.
The rainfall has not increased, the run-off has become the issue.
Quoting pottery:
Cot, wet season officially ends Dec. But it can continue raining to March, like this year did.
The problem in the City and environs is too much building on hillsides. Removed the forest, paved with concrete, asphalt and roof-sheeting.
The rainfall has not increased, the run-off has become the issue.


Iccck. Well, hope it subsides soon. When will it be time for avocados?

Guacamole goooood...
Pangean. Your recent posts have demonstrated that you are a Master of using the objectionable to attempt to score cheap points. You have shown no ability in the art of discourse.
You are the very first person, in several years, that I have chosen to "ignore".
219. beell
Ah,don't worry about pangean. He is only using his God-given inalieanable rights to say what he thinks.

LOL I think!
No avocados until July, at the earliest.
Sigh....
Wow, a religious debate on wunderground? Something I never thought I'd see... I'm very interested in theological discussions in spite of being an atheist, so I wish I would've been on here earlier, when the debate started. :(
"You are the very first person, in several years, that I have chosen to "ignore"."

Quite the compliment coming from you, Potty. But, of course, you won't see this comment. C'est la vie
.
Was not much of a debate, Kori.
You may have been able to lift the tone.
224. GBlet
Damn shame a weather blog has to have a babysitter. By the way, someone needs to tell Orca to get that door fixed! I don't like it when it's 3 degrees! Cold Front rolling in later and it's gonna be a bbbrrrrrrrrr.
Evening all, hope everyone is well and ready for the holidays!

Rainman just got in to Houston and is driving out to Beaumont shortly. Webcam & chat are up and running Tomorrow evening will be the Christmas party for bridge City.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Geoengineering? LMAO - like little, feeble people can actually mold the continuity of this earth which has survived for millions of years without man's "so-called" wisdom! Some really think they're just too special, too smart.


Great leaps have been made by mankind by simply asking the question. For example, who would have thought that mold could save people from disease?

Nothing wrong with asking the question. Doesn't necessarily mean that we'll see geoengineering gizmos circumnavigating the globe.
Quoting pottery:
Was not much of a debate, Kori.
You may have been able to lift the tone.


Problem is both sides are clearly too entrenched to truly engage in the give and take of a lively discussion on this topic.
Pangean. I have removed the "ignore", simply because I am always interested in people's comments, on all subjects.
I have to say, though, that your foolish remark to Gamma was one of the low points on the blog, for a long time.
You could possibly correct that, but I dont see how.......
Quoting pottery:
Was not much of a debate, Kori.
You may have been able to lift the tone.


Perhaps. Even though I'm atheistic, I don't carry the reputation you or others might think. In fact, I consider myself to be a nice atheist. I'm kind, considerate of others, and most importantly, can tolerate and understand viewpoints that differ from mine. Indeed, I can always sympathize with those viewpoints, as well. That's what's important, IMO. Regardless of our different viewpoints and worldviews, we as human beings have the responsibility to understand the opposing side, even if we disagree with them.

Oh, and evening SJ. Hope all is well.
Doing well KM, and thanks. Just been busy with the new baby :~)
Kori. Well said.
You actually are living, what all religion teaches.
As for me, I have a difficulty, choosing one faith over another.
All are relevant. Its the fanatical view, with exclusion of other views, that gives me a headache.
Quoting pangean:
"What fine representatives of manhood you both represent."

Seriously, this is your idea of intelligent discourse? I've heard more intelligent comebacks from 12 year olds in the school yard.
Yeah. And if a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his little waterproof butt every time he landed.
What we have here is your cowardly discourse to insult women. Those "big thick books with no pictures in them" speak volumes as to what it takes for a man to openly insult a women behind the skirts of "mommy cyberspace" and then insult a grown man behind the same cowardly shield. Man up little man. Pick on a woman your own size.
TheSheperd~ I could have worded that better. The larger AG areas in FL, our black gold, is mostly very low seas level lands of SFL around Lake O. Much is already protected by dikes & leeves. The east coast citrus sits low too.

I think sea level is where the numbers are one of the scetchiest. The ice wasn't expected to melt so quick. It already looks like the IPCC was wrong on it's 100 year projections they put out last year, as in too low. Unforchanately one of the most important effects is one of the hardest to forecast.
"I have to say, though, that your foolish remark to Gamma was one of the low points on the blog, for a long time."

Why do you call it foolish? I will stand behind it. The bimbo insulted me, and I returned the favor. It obviously comes down to me being the outsider here which puts me in the wrong. BTW, exactly how long did that "ingore" last?
"And if a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his little waterproof butt every time he landed."

Sorry, but that's just plain gibberish. Any chance you have something intelligible to post? Right now you're just looking like a simple fool.

"Pick on a woman your own size."

Gamma looks plenty big enough to me. You really think that she's afraid of me?
Quoting Skyepony:
TheSheperd~ I could have worded that better. The larger AG areas in FL, our black gold, is mostly very low seas level lands of SFL around Lake O. Much is already protected by dikes & leeves. The east coast citrus sits low too.

I think sea level is where the numbers are one of the scetchiest. The ice wasn't expected to melt so quick. It already looks like the IPCC was wrong on it's 100 year projections they put out last year, as in too low. Unforchanately one of the most important effects is one of the hardest to forecast.
Hang there for just a minute sky. Is not the majority of the citrus industry in central Fla? The sugar industry does not describe Florida.
And is not the majority of dollar value of land endangered by rising sea levels located in high dollar coastal developments? Don't get me wrong and LOL, but when I look at the land loss due to 6 feet of mean sea level rise, what I see is "people" more so than ag land.
And no, I have no wish to see people flocking to a paradise which is unsupported by infrastructure be left homeless. But, I have to wonder if ocean side condos are as important in the grand scheme of things as some would have me believe.
I was born and raised in Fla. The fishing capital of the world is only 5 hrs away to the south. In fifty years it becomes 4 1/2 hrs away. I think the perspective of land loss vs "who needs it?" is worth a few beers and a friendly chat.
I may look at this in the AM and wonder, but right about now I'm thinking if you move to the ocean, don't be suprised if **** happens.
LOL
I'd venture to speculate that there's been ebb and flow of land mass for millions of years - and likely to continue for many more. The declarative is more contrived in man's significance on the planet than is really actual. It'll all change again and again with or without man's pitiful, and really inconsequential impacts.
God help us when we humans grow such an ego that we start forcibly changing Earth's climate! Regardless of what we think, we are only able to truly study a tiny fraction of the Earth's atmospheric history. We have no business trying to force it one way or another. How do we know the Earth isn't supposed to warm up?
Whoa, just jumped on and see the POOF is necessary for Pangean....no wonder most hang out on RobDaHood's Blog lately - fun there and this stuff doesn't happen.
The citrus industry moslty sits along the coast where freezes are later & less if at all. I'm in the heary of Indian River Citrus country in east central FL It goes way beyond sugar. Weather is sweet, most my fruits & veggies are coming from my garden right now. Other than Fay it's been good all year. Everything from Plant City strawberrys to south FL's small seedless watermelon is in right now. Your right about the ag land I describe looking more like condos from above. That's why if we don't pave it over 1st was in there. There was real recent stuff on sea rise out, wish I had more time.

Did notice a blob pulling it together in the east ATL. Looked way worse on the Goes-east, which is still goes 13 (12 broke)


than the met 9.


Looks like the monsoon season not over yet, sorry Trinidad.
Quoting norcalengineer:
God help us when we humans grow such an ego that we start forcibly changing Earth's climate! Regardless of what we think, we are only able to truly study a tiny fraction of the Earth's atmospheric history. We have no business trying to force it one way or another. How do we know the Earth isn't supposed to warm up?


Well, scientists can examine the factors that cause climate to change and by doing this have ruled out every possibility except for an increase in greenhouse gasses (we can also determine which gasses are greenhouse gasses by measuring their properties with regards to infrared radiation; see here). See here for more on the history of the science. It also seems to me that some people think that the scientists have simply ignored any other possibilities because "we know what is causing it thus there isn't any reason to look at anything else" (a recent article shows this not to be true).

Anyway, I do agree that we shouldn't try to do anything else, that would also likely have negative consequences (also see comment 25, also want to add that it wouldn't do anything about ocean acidification).
Back for a minute before I wire nana's X-mas tree to the wall due to my wild 2 year old trying to climb it. Gamma and others who have been attacked and been defending... please don't let people trying to pick fights get you down. Us atheists aren't all bad. I am 29 and work with the extension service in NWFL. My first posts are today's but I have been lurking for a while. Finally had to create an account because we recently got our weather station online at the Santa Rosa County Extension Office.

My primary function is to try to protect the local environment by teaching people on a personal basis how to best manage their use of water, pesticides, and fertilizers. Pangean, it can't change anybody by attacking or insulting them. Most people in here have an interest in helping the world in whatever way they can. Please help us to do this as well. I can tell you are a mentally intelligent person. Gaining an emotional intelligence to go along with it would serve you very well in life. Same goes to others who blatantly disrespect anyones opinions.

If our biased politicians and media outlets could stop purposely trying to polarize us perhaps we wouldn't be having this debates because scientists wouldn't need to think of such outlandish last-straw measures to stop on of the world's most dire possible problems.


It also seems to me that some people think that the scientists have simply ignored any other possibilities because "we know what is causing it thus there isn't any reason to look at anything else" (a recent article shows this not to be true).


One article from another "shill" site and that proves anything?

I came across this and thought it was interesting, especially the "six percent per decade" part:

Global warming causing more tropical storms: NASA

LOS ANGELES (AFP) - Global warming is increasing the frequency of extremely high clouds in the Earth's tropics that cause severe storms and rainfall, according to a NASA study released Friday.

The space agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) said a study by its scientists "found a strong correlation between the frequency of these clouds and seasonal variations in the average sea surface temperature of the tropical oceans."

"For every degree Centigrade (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) increase in average ocean surface temperature, the team observed a 45-percent increase in the frequency of the very high clouds," according to the study, recently published in Geophysical Research Letters.

"At the present rate of global warming of 0.13 degrees Celsius (0.23 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade, the team inferred the frequency of these storms can be expected to increase by six percent per decade."

JPL Senior Research Scientist Hartmut Aumann headed the study on five years of data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on NASA's Aqua spacecraft, an instrument that observes climate variations.

The link between global warming and the frequency and intensity of severe storms has long been a source of speculation for climate modelers, noted the Pasadena, California-based JPL.
If my reading serves. No matter what you believe, it seems that we all agree that using these types of technologies will not help us at best, and may be horribly detrimental to the Earth as we know it.
Sorry for the interruption...Baby cam for anyone interested!
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number NINETEEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
11:18 AM ACST December 20 2008
=====================================

At 9:30 am Australia CST, Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category One [990 hPa] located at 14.9S 127.9E or 70 kms north northwest of Wyndham and 235 kms east of Mitchell Plateau has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced between KALUMBURU to the NT/WA BORDER, they are expected to persist for the next 6 hours then GRADUALLY EASE.

The cyclone is expected to weaken into a tropical low later today as it continues to move inland, but may redevelop into a tropical cyclone on Monday if it moves off the west Kimberley coast, causing gales between KALUMBURU and BEAGLE BAY [NOT including DERBY].

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island areas from Mitchell Plateau to Western Australia/Northern Territory border.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island areas from Beagle Bay to Mitchell Plateau, NOT including Derby.

The Cyclone WARNING for coastal and island areas from PORT KEATS to the Western Australia/Northern Territory border has been cancelled.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
==================================
12 HRS: 15.0S 127.4E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
24 HRS: 15.3S 126.6E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 15.6S 124.7E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 16.5S 121.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Tropical Cyclone 'Billy' has moved slowly W during the past 3-6 hours and is now moving inland over the north Kimberley. Wyndham radar indicates a weakening system, with increasing difficulty locating the LLCC. The central cold cover cloud pattern indicates weakening due to interaction with land

Dvorak analysis at 0000 UTC based on PT=3.0. A consensus of NWP forecasts indicates continued W or WSW movement across the Kimberley region. There is the possibility of redevelopment off the west Kimberley coast after 48 and 72 hours, if the system maintains a generally WSW track.
Quoting StormJunkie:
Sorry for the interruption...Baby cam for anyone interested!
Pick him up Dad, he is crying and wants love....
Thanks SJ - now he feels better and I definitely do! One of those Mom's who couldn't stand the sad sound of cying. LOL
We can say that it's arrogant to geoengineer, but if this climate really does unhinge and do what some of the chicken littles say it'll do, geoengineering won't look like such a bad idea.

Besides, it might be that we've been in the process of doing this for almost a century. What if GHGs are pumped into the atmosphere for this explicit reason = to geoengineer. Why? I don't know, but it helps to explain why it's being done on gigantic levels without hesitation. They must know something we don't.
If the models are correct, Florida's gonna have one heck of a RFW day on tap for Monday as dewpoints could crash into the single digits with a high of around 60 under breezy conditions. Nice and brisky for the holidays though.

As for Christmas, models are as divergent as night and day. A frontal passage is certain(since the pattern is progressive). However, if it will be cold or not is up in the air. Right now I'm leaning towards cold. Hopefully the models will have it all straightened out by morning.

There is no way that its strengthening on land
I have created a short blog on Gulf of Mexico Surf(Panhandle region)and surfing in general. Comments welcome.......... aggressive localism not allowed. How might climate change affect the surf in my/your area?
Quoting surfmom:
Michael - 100 percent agreement in regard to the fuels -- dirty is dirty and we humans are gross with our dirty habits -- any pollution that hurts the web of life should be reevaluated and changed -- we are all interconnected. There are many other energy means -- but Corporatacy and the Banksters have done a fine job curtailing these advances.

Also a small disagree - fossil fuels. According to some, Charles Walters of ACRES USA magazine (along with other scientists) and believes that oil is always being produced - basically hydro carbons under heat and pressure... that would challenge the idea that we are running out. what we do know is using the earth's blood makes her sick... we need another way. I will try and find the science article I read this in.....buried somewhere


I disagree with STL, but I agree with you on the possible Abiogenic petroleum origin.
Call me a conspericy theorist if you would like.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin
Here's the link

Link
Quoting Skyepony:
TheSheperd~ I could have worded that better. The larger AG areas in FL, our black gold, is mostly very low seas level lands of SFL around Lake O. Much is already protected by dikes & leeves. The east coast citrus sits low too.

I think sea level is where the numbers are one of the scetchiest. The ice wasn't expected to melt so quick. It already looks like the IPCC was wrong on it's 100 year projections they put out last year, as in too low. Unforchanately one of the most important effects is one of the hardest to forecast.


Here is a link for you. It makes me feel better ;-)

Link
I'm sure STL will disagree with it, but if no one did we would have no debate. Without debate we can never truly understand. Question everything is my motto.

Link
#257 Do you feel that we should curtail our use of fossil fuel and petroleum products?
Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
Quoting whatwhat1:
I'm sure STL will disagree with it, but if no one did we would have no debate. Without debate we can never truly understand. Question everything is my motto.

Link




From what I have seen elsewhere, that site is run by a denialist who isn't even a climate scientist (so what he says is meaningless, he has also manipulated data and makes false claims that can be easily debunked; heck, you can even make your own measurements with the equipment available in an ordinary high school lab to verify that his claims about CO2 not being a greenhouse gas are false, nevermind it would totally upset what we know about the ice ages (CO2 amplifying the warming) plus past global warming events like the PETM - of course, that isn't the case). For credible science, you meed to look at actual scientific work, not mumbo-jumbo (and yes, they do look at every possibility too, as I posted on a recent article concerning cosmic rays - not that you looked at it).
only way to ensure the planets survival is to ensure we don't
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number TWENTY
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
2:00 PM ACST December 20 2008
=====================================

Immediate Tropical Cyclone Advice

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island areas from Mitchell Plateau to WA/NT Border.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island areas from Beagle Bay to Mitchell Plateau, NOT including Derby.

At 12:30 pm CST, Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category One [992 hPa] located at 15.0S 127.6E or 75 kilometres northwest of Wyndham and 205 kilometres east of Mitchell Plateau has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-southwest at 4 knots.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour currently being experienced between KALUMBURU to the NT/WA BORDER are expected to persist for the next few hours then GRADUALLY EASE.

The cyclone is expected to weaken into a Tropical Low this afternoon as it continues to move inland, but may redevelop into a Tropical Cyclone on Monday if it moves off the west Kimberley coast, causing gales between KALUMBURU and BEAGLE BAY [NOT including DERBY]
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
only way to ensure the planets survival is to ensure we don't


lol

QFT :)
i don't mean everyone kor man but maybe a mass died off as a result of altering weather patterns disruptions in food supplies mass starvation sickness with outbreaks cull down global population to 50 or 100 million these things have happen in the past they will happen into our future it's not a matter of if just when and all we got is time
#264
I remember some guy by the name of Jim Jones doing his best to help things along about 20 years ago!!!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i don't mean everyone kor man but maybe a mass died off as a result of altering weather patterns disruptions in food supplies mass starvation sickness with outbreaks cull down global population to 50 or 100 million these things have happen in the past they will happen into our future it's not a matter of if just when and all we got is time


I whole-heartedly agree with you on cutting the global population down -- overpopulation is one of the biggest issues in this world today. If we don't kill ourselves first, nature sure as hell will.
School employees surprised with $10,000 bonus
Friday, December 19, 2008...left click to see video....



#264 Unfortunately you are probably right. Can we do anything to help prevent this is the big question? Will reduction of emissions and other pollutants help slow the inevitable water rise we face? Can we supply enough resources to the world to prevent wars, famine, plagues? After all, these are the primary questions that many scientists ask when laboring over climate change and other similar issues.
message from mother earth ... --- ...

just like you there is only one of me
#267 Great post...Thanks
Is anyone working on harnessing the power of lightning?
Also, this paper (note - you have to right-click (PDF) and select rotate clockwise to read it) is extremely interesting from a solar-climate perspective, since it suggests that there has been little change in solar activity since the Maunder Minimum (and even then that was only an extended solar minimum like the current one, no lower, as earlier reconstructions show); it uses additional data (besides sunspots which were undercounted in the past) to correct the past sunspot numbers. It did rise during the first half of the 20th century - but from a relative minimum around 1900, preceded by a similar peak in the mid-1800s (that biocab site whatwhat1 linked to uses the Lean reconstruction shown here; it should be noted that Leif once thought the same about an increase in the early 1900s but realized that other data didn't support that).

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

The implications of this is that climate would have to be far more sensitive to solar variation in order for there to be a significant effect, as large as some claim (this leads to problems though, such as the lack of a clear 11 year cycle in global temperatures; as it is it is possible to extract a roughly 0.1*C signal - this is only equivalent to about 7 years of warming at the current trend however).
Quoting KoritheMan:


I whole-heartedly agree with you on cutting the global population down -- overpopulation is one of the biggest issues in this world today. If we don't kill ourselves first, nature sure as hell will.
thats the funny thing with nature its normally big when it happens
Yup, the teacher vid was great.
273. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 11:32 PM CST ...thats the funny thing with nature its normally big when it happens

Yeah, but it's a natural thing. It's happened many times through the earth's history. And, man's role has been and still is insignificant comparatively.

ACO2 or whether we were here or not at all even, the Earth would still keep on doing what it's been doing in its cycles and maturation for 1000's of years. Man is just simply along for the ride as long as it lasts.
When will people stop trying to tame Mother Nature? She has her ways and they are for a reason. It never ceases to amaze me that throughout history man keeps forgetting the lessons of the past. There is never one thing which can be solved without it interacting or reacting to something else. Stop hurricanes or lessen them dramatically and we face worse problems elsewhere.

I'm off to start my own pyramid scheme and live in my 10 million dollar mansion. Call me when the Earth is safe. LOL
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number TWENTY-ONE
EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
5:00 PM ACST December 20 2008
=====================================

At 3:30 pm CST, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Billy [998 hPa] located at 15.1S 127.3E or 100 kms west northwest of Wyndham and 175 kms east southeast of Mitchell Plateau has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

TROPICAL CYCLONE Billy has weakened into a Tropical Low. Winds near the centre have eased below gale force. The Tropical Low is expected to cross the north Kimberley region and move off the west Kimberley coast early Monday. A TROPICAL CYCLONE may redevelop later on Monday causing GALES between KALUMBURU and COCKATOO ISLAND.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==================================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for Kalumburu to Mitchell Plateau and has been declared for coastal and island areas from Mitchell Plateau to Cockatoo Island.

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island areas from Broome to Cockatoo Island.

The Cyclone WARNING from Mitchell Plateau to WA/NT Border has been cancelled.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin - FINAL (reason below tropical cyclone status)
==================================
12 HRS: 15.5S 126.2E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
24 HRS: 15.5S 125.1E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 15.8S 123.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 16.9S 120.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone 'Billy' has weakened into a Tropical Low over the north Kimberley. The Tropical Low is moving slowly west southwest, and may cross the west Kimberley coast on Monday, where it may re-develop into a Tropical Cyclone.

Dvorak analysis at 0600 UTC based on PT=2.5.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Western Australia 110E 125E
2:00 pm WDT December 20 2008
===========================================

A cyclone advice is current for Tropical Cyclone Billy, located over the north Kimberley, outside the region. It is expected to move off the northwest Kimberley coast into the region on Sunday or Monday and then re-develop into a tropical cyclone.

Please refer to the latest cyclone advice.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: High
Tuesday: High

Is it safe to come out yet? ;p
Quoting Cotillion:
Is it safe to come out yet? ;p


Come on out..looks like everyone is tired out!!!

Here in Wilmington NC it is 60F with a forecast of rain showers!

Northwest braces for wintry storm


The Northwest braced for blizzards Friday night while cities from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, to Boston, Massachusetts, were cleaning up after a major storm delayed air travel and created havoc on the ground.

"This is essentially the reincarnation of the same storm that brought the heavy snow to parts of California, southern Nevada and northern Arizona," Steve Corfidi, lead forecaster with the weather service's Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, told CNNRadio.

Icy roads created from storms this week paralyzed much of the greater Seattle, Washington, area, where schools were closed and bus routes were suspended Friday as roads were too icy to navigate.

Two charter buses carrying 80 people that collided and skidded off a road were pulled to safety, CNN affiliate KOMO reported.

The buses crashed through a metal railing and hung precariously over Interstate 5 for several hours before tow trucks pulled them back on the road, KOMO reported.

"We hit it and everyone is in shock for a minute, and [the driver] says 'go to the back of the bus.' And people threw each other out the windows," passenger Tamera Vasquez told KOMO.

Saturday was expected to bring heavy snows in Washington, damaging winds and power outages to a region still recovering from storms earlier in the week.

Hurricane-force winds are possible in the eastern foothills of Snohomish, King and Pierce Counties. Further west, several inches of snow are possible in the greater Seattle-Tacoma-Everett metro area Saturday afternoon. Toward the Olympic Mountains, they could be measuring new snowfall in feet.

Flights at most airports in the Midwest and Northeast were up and running after experiencing delays as long as three hours throughout the day. But storm warnings and watches remained in effect for most of region.

Corfidi said the storm is expected to maintain intensity into Saturday, continuing east and "spreading a swath of very heavy snow and freezing rain" into Pennsylvania and New York.

"There could easily be up to a foot of snow over parts of Illinois, northern Indiana, perhaps into parts of Michigan and southern Wisconsin, eastward into parts of New York and Pennsylvania," Corfidi said.

In Milwaukee, snowfall closed the airport for several hours and cut into local business hours for retail shops during the busiest shopping season of the year.

Malls and shopping centers in Milwaukee, Glendale, Wauwatosa and Greendale opened later than usual, dealing another blow to retailers already struggling with a severe economic downturn.

To compensate, some stores in the area, including Kohl's, Boston Store, J.C. Penney and Macy's are staying open until midnight on some days, the Journal-Sentinel Online reported.

"The snow has me concerned," Southridge Mall manager Mary Wenger told the newspaper.

Another four to seven inches of snow is expected over the weekend.

In New Hampshire, still reeling from an ice storm last week, crews worked feverishly to restore electricity service to more than 30,000 customers remaining in the dark, CNN affiliate WMUR-TV in Manchester reported.

Southern New Hampshire could get 10 new inches of snow before midnight Friday, WMUR said.

Elsewhere, police in Buffalo, New York, shut down the city's Skyway highway because of winds and snow, CNN affiliate WGRZ-TV reported. Western New York had several inches of snow on the ground by noon, the station reported.

To the north in Ontario, Canada, southbound Highway 400 was shut down outside Toronto after an multivehicle accident in near whiteout conditions, CNN affiliate CTV reported.

"Lots of blowing snow. Visibility is next to nothing," CTV senior cameraman Tom Podolec reported from the scene.

Ontario Provincial Police reported 70 accidents in less than five hours Friday morning.

The system should move quickly, Corfidi said. It was not shaping up as an extraordinary event, he said.

"It is December, and winter storms certainly raise their ugly heads this time of year," Corfidi said.

Good morning!

Mornin' Vort. How's things on your side of the pond?
hi gang!!!!!!!! Don't forget to check out the Christmas party lve at www.portlight.org this afternoon....
and, btw.....What are we all doing up this early on a Saturday?!?!?!?!?!
Quoting presslord:
hi gang!!!!!!!! Don't forget to check out the Christmas party lve at www.portlight.org this afternoon....


Already camped there ;)
Good Morning.
It is a Glorious one.
Sun is shining bright, birds are squabbling on the feeder, dogs are lying on the warm tile of the patio.
I intend to do very little today.
WU is confusing me it says tomorrow 100% chance of rain and then a sun with a cloud so I don't know which is right
Morning All, Great day on tap here in zephyrhills FL. Right now 55 and some fog but later 80 and sunshine. Have a great day!!!

6.5-magnitude quake off Japanese coast

TOKYO, Japan (CNN) -- A strong earthquake centered about 90 miles off Japan's east coast, measuring a 6.5 magnitude, was recorded by seismologists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) on Saturday.

There were no immediate reports of damage from the quake, which happened at 7:29 p.m. (5:29 a.m. ET).

The quake was centered at a depth of 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) underground and 170 kilometers (105 miles) east of Mito, on the main Japanese island of Honshu, the USGS said.

Tokyo is about 255 kilometers (160 miles) west-southwest of the quake's center, the agency said.


Photobucket


Well my best guess the Earth in many years to come will become inhabitable (due to Global Warming, A hot war, ect) and we should Terraform Mars and place Bases on other places in the Solar System, hence why the Space Program is so important.
TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1238 AM HST SAT DEC 20 2008

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1229 AM HST 20 DEC 2008
COORDINATES - 36.5 NORTH 142.6 EAST
LOCATION - OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN
MAGNITUDE - 6.5 MOMENT

EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.

Good morning everyone,
I'm at work.. last day for 2 weeks! YIPEE..

I will try to watch the Christmas Party webcam but from work sometimes I am not able to get it..but willturn it on when I get home.


Good luck at the party!!!

Everyone here have a great Saturday!
hmm...supposed to sail today and looking outside it doesn't look like there is ANY wind to race. Possibly another weekend of tying up with the other boats out in the middle of the river? Ugh...

Hope everyone is well...merry christmas/happy hannukah...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Well my best guess the Earth in many years to come will become inhabitable (due to Global Warming, A hot war, ect) and we should Terraform Mars and place Bases on other places in the Solar System, hence why the Space Program is so important.

I always figured that people would cause the end of the world. We can't really add so much pollution and greenhouse gas and expect it to do nothing to harm the earth. And people in general are way to stubborn to stop and eventually we're going to reach a tipping point or point of no return. So it is really just a matter of time and whether we can destroy ourselves before the solar system does.
Quoting barryweather:
#257 Do you feel that we should curtail our use of fossil fuel and petroleum products?


Yes! It is a dirty substance. But it currently still has it's uses. My main problem is the idea of carbon taxes and credits. But if it cleans the air I breath and the water I drink I can live with it.
Yup...snowmageddon is coming to S. Ontario. We have about 25 cm (10 in) of snow on the ground, and more is on the way. Looking at the weather forecast, it appears there will be about 37 cm (15 in) of snow by Sunday night, and 54 cm (21 in) of snow by Wednesday night. Yikes! Already yesterday we had snowdrifts 2 feet high and snowbanks 4 feet high. It appears we could soon have 7 foot snow banks. A 12-ft snowman is just the answer to that problem! LOL. Packing snow likely for Wednesday, and with half a metre of snow on the ground, that doesn't look too difficult (I'm tall enough). Anybody else getting snowstorms in the next week?
I think these guy's at the AGU should have a psycological exam. These people are to funny, really. They should put their over-sized brains together and think of ways to adapt to what our climate cycles are giving us . I mean if their seriious about "changing " the climate to "normal" whatever the hell that is , why not just drop a bunker buster down the throat of pick your volcano, then boom , the fallout blocks the sun for a couple years , we get our precious ice back in no-where land and Algore can give the OK to quit worrying about a non-existant problem. Case closed. Your welcome.
The one reason we will never see eye to eye is I don’t trust the numbers you present and you don’t trust the numbers I present. And like I said, that is fine we need debate. The sea level rising has slowed or stopped over the last couple years, which is in contradiction to the GW theories. The pro GW “scientists’” have changed the algorithms they use to calculate the atmospheric temperature. Yes they state a reason for it, the satellite orbits are affecting them, but do I trust the new number? It also may be wrong. Everyone has their biases and mistakes.
We have problems with urban heat effect, affecting our land based temperature recorders and have not had large numbers of ocean based recorders for any considerable period of time. Fact the sun has cycles that affect our planet. Fact the earth has its own cycles of ocean currents and jet stream movements that affect our climate. Fact climate is forever changing.
The world glaciers are not melting anymore but are actually growing. Maybe just a short term trend but none the less this is not part of the GW theory. What is great about GW is we can blame all extreme weather on it. It’s funny that Antarctica has been cooling and the snow and ice down there has been accumulating but the GWers will say that is part of the GW theory.
Fact scientist were saying that the summer of 2008 would have less ice in the Artic then 2007. This did not happen. We are now about half way between 2007 and the 30 year average. The Northwest Passage was navigated by Roald Amundsen in 1903–1906.
Since the Middle Ages warm period the earth has warmed 0.8 degrees c that is roughly 0.1 c every century. If you stop the graph this year the warming may be less than the .8 which is a conservative number based on data that may be in urban heat spots. The GWers will say that it was warm in Europe, but other places were cold. That also sounds just like GW today. Not everywhere is warm or cold or in between. That is climate for you. There are holes in every theory but GW looks more like Swiss cheese to me.
No one can argue the earth has not warmed up over the last 50 years or the last hundred or thousand. And then again we may have peaked until next time and are on the way down the other side of the graph.

Time to go boating and enjoy this warm weather :-)
Quoting all4hurricanes:

I always figured that people would cause the end of the world. We can't really add so much pollution and greenhouse gas and expect it to do nothing to harm the earth. And people in general are way to stubborn to stop and eventually we're going to reach a tipping point or point of no return. So it is really just a matter of time and whether we can destroy ourselves before the solar system does.


Just hope the new President doesn't do anything to mess up the Space Program like Bill Clinton did.
In Science Choices, Obama Signals ChangeBy HOPE YEN, AP
(Dec. 20) - President-elect Barack Obama on Saturday named a Harvard physicist and a marine biologist to science posts, signaling a change from Bush administration policies on global warming that were criticized for putting politics over science.

Both John Holdren and Jane Lubchenco are leading experts on climate change who have advocated forceful government response. Holdren will become Obama's science adviser as director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy; Lubchenco will lead the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees ocean and atmospheric studies and does much of the government's research on global warming.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Just hope the new President doesn't do anything to mess up the Space Program like Bill Clinton did.

I don't know if we can even develop a colony on another planet/moon none so far come close to supporting life. and I don't think we can develop enough technology that would make it possible much less carry that technology there. I'm not discouraging it, the space program is the only hope of humans surviving past the sun explosion. But for the time being there are more important issues.
It's gonna snow here tomorrow...this may bring my total for this winter above 10 inches. 6.9 inches have fallen IMBY so far.





Looks like Florida's winter is over. After colder than average temps from late Oct. through early Dec., high pressure is here to stay blocking any cold air from here whatsoever.
By the Holy FSM, these bozos really don't know anything but "bigger hammer" solutions, do they?
Quoting all4hurricanes:

I don't know if we can even develop a colony on another planet/moon none so far come close to supporting life. and I don't think we can develop enough technology that would make it possible much less carry that technology there. I'm not discouraging it, the space program is the only hope of humans surviving past the sun explosion. But for the time being there are more important issues.


2020ish, NASA's going to put a Lunar base on the Moon named 'Armstrong'.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2020ish, NASA's going to put a Lunar base on the Moon named 'Armstrong'.
LOL...Can you elaborate on why this is considered considering current global crisis? Global climate, bailouts, desease, public safety, energy alternative studies?
Quoting theshepherd:
LOL...Can you elaborate on why this is considered considering current global crisis? Global climate, bailouts, desease, public safety, energy alternative studies?


That doesn't mean we shouldn't have the spirit of Exploration in us. There's always been those, look in the 60's and 70's, Vietnam, watergate,'Global Cooling' ect. Yet we landed a man on the moon.
Injured Yachtsman Rescued on High Seas CNN
(Dec. 20) -- A French yachtsman badly injured during the Vendee Globe solo round-the-world race was rescued Saturday by an Australian Navy ship around 850 miles south of Perth.

The frigate HMAS Arunta had been dispatched to rescue Yann Elies after he broke his left leg on Thursday when his boat, the Generali, slammed into a wave, knocking him into the deck.
He had managed to drag himself back into the 18-meter vessel's cabin but had been unable to reach any painkillers, food or water. Race officials had classed Elies as being in a life-threatening condition.

Two crew members transferred Elies aboard the Arunta earlier Saturday, according to the Vendee Globe Web site.
Fellow competitor Marc Guillemot, who monitored the rescue after changing course to check on Elies' condition and provide radio support, said the operation had been executed flawlessly.
"Some highly professional work. They prepared Yann for the transfer. Still heavy swell but they carried out maneuver perfectly. Yann is now aboard the frigate and has a doctor taking care of him," Guillemot reported.

"It was like a dream. It didn't seem real. They took care of that magnificently."

The Arunta's commanding officer, Commander Stephen Bowater said his crew has displayed exceptional professionalism during the operation to reach the French sailor.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That doesn't mean we shouldn't have the spirit of Exploration in us. There's always been those, look in the 60's and 70's, Vietnam, watergate,'Global Cooling' ect. Yet we landed a man on the moon.
CT I agree with the spirit of exploration completely and am saddened when I think of putting such adventure back on the shelf until times are better. I must budget my own priority based lifestyle and I think Gov't should do the same.
NASA has at arms length brilliant creative scientist and designers who proceed in an orderly purpose driven team work enviroment.
I have all confidence they could develop the battery needed to make electric vehicles that desperately need this power source affordable and reliable. Some of these new cars as I'm sure you know are amazing in performance but the 2 to 3 hundred pound trunkfull of lithium batteries makes them somewhat unrealistic.
LOL...Give me my battery and I'll be the first to join your passion.
Woah! Talk about snowmageddon! Not only are we supposed to see over 50 cm of snow by Christmas in S. Ontario, it looks like according to the long-range forecast there will be a gargantuan winter storm next Saturday, perhaps bringing our snow on the ground to over 100 cm by the end of the year! Just think of any town or city in southern Ontario, and search for it in this website: Link. A catastrophic scenario is depicted for every locale, be it half a metre of snow in one day, over a centimetre of freezing rain, or rain/snow mixed that threatens to freeze over and collapse every roof. Travel would be impossible! Schools would be cancelled for the first time in years in some places! This storm would be worthy of a Wikipedia article! I only looked at a few locations, and more than likely the forecast will change. That's still pretty scary, though. Please take a look. LOL, better make that snowman 14-ft!
311 astro
LOL...no thank you,Sir.
Do ya'll(southern roots evident) have generators like we do down here?
Can't fathom your daily lifestyle...lol
Quoting theshepherd:
311 astro
LOL...no thank you,Sir.
Do ya'll(southern roots evident) have generators like we do down here?
Can't fathom your daily lifestyle...lol

LOL, it looks like this will be a problem. Usually when a big storm hits we stay indoors until the storm passes then we get out the shovels and snowblowers. Looks like with this storm, if it happens, some people may have to shovel their ROOFS.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

LOL, it looks like this will be a problem. Usually when a big storm hits we stay indoors until the storm passes then we get out the shovels and snowblowers. Looks like with this storm, if it happens, some people may have to shovel their ROOFS.
Yeah, I guess storms are storms. Hurricanes drive me indoors also. Except when we go back outside we take a chainsaw instead of a shovel...LOL
Stay safe...
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2020ish, NASA's going to put a Lunar base on the Moon named 'Armstrong'.

seems optimistic but interesting. Will it be self sustaining or will there need to be regular supply visits, because that would be expensive.
Afternoon all

The Christmas party for the residents of Bridge City has started and after spending all day working on the webcam it is now back up and running! Hope y'all will join us in chat and watch the feed.
317. JFDC
LET THE EARTH DO WHAT IT WANTS TO DO. OVER HISTORY THE EARTH HAS GONE THROUGH MANY CLIMATE CHANGES,AND MAN HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH IT.
Quoting presslord:
In Science Choices, Obama Signals ChangeBy HOPE YEN, AP
(Dec. 20) - President-elect Barack Obama on Saturday named a Harvard physicist and a marine biologist to science posts, signaling a change from Bush administration policies on global warming that were criticized for putting politics over science.

Both John Holdren and Jane Lubchenco are leading experts on climate change who have advocated forceful government response. Holdren will become Obama's science adviser as director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy; Lubchenco will lead the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees ocean and atmospheric studies and does much of the government's research on global warming.


Those marine biologists are pretty smart I hear... ;-)
Quoting all4hurricanes:

seems optimistic but interesting. Will it be self sustaining or will there need to be regular supply visits, because that would be expensive.


Self Sustaining, NASA's Engineers have discovered a way to convert the dirt on the moon into pure and clean H20, 02, and they will bring plant life to the base. All and all, seems like a pretty good deal.
Have to just post for a second before I go eat dinner and I'm sorry to irritate anyone that is sitting in the snow right now.

WHAT A GORGEOUS DAY here today (press, you can appreciate this!). 78 degrees, PERFECT wind, sunshine and a full day on the water racing. Couldn't REQUEST a better day than this (sans the gnats when we pulled into the dock). Days like this make it almost easier to bear the 100 degree weather we have here in August. When we go back to San Diego, hopefully we will learn not to take the perfect weather for granted. Exquisite afternoon. I don't know how we did in the race with points being sorted out but I really didn't care.

Anywho...hope all of you who are freezing, thaw out soon and that the temps warm up a bit for you so it's tolerable. We DO miss having a white Christmas though - doesn't seem the same when you are wearing shorts and a tshirt.

Be safe.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Self Sustaining, NASA's Engineers have discovered a way to convert the dirt on the moon into pure and clean H20, 02, and they will bring plant life to the base. All and all, seems like a pretty good deal.

you're kidding right that's amazing
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
273. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 11:32 PM CST ...thats the funny thing with nature its normally big when it happens

Yeah, but it's a natural thing. It's happened many times through the earth's history. And, man's role has been and still is insignificant comparatively.

ACO2 or whether we were here or not at all even, the Earth would still keep on doing what it's been doing in its cycles and maturation for 1000's of years. Man is just simply along for the ride as long as it lasts.


Man may be pitiably small, but not entirely powerless. Scientific inquiry is powerful, which is why the AGU panel was truly interesting (I was there too)
Quoting melwerle:
Have to just post for a second before I go eat dinner and I'm sorry to irritate anyone that is sitting in the snow right now.

WHAT A GORGEOUS DAY here today (press, you can appreciate this!). 78 degrees, PERFECT wind, sunshine and a full day on the water racing. Couldn't REQUEST a better day than this (sans the gnats when we pulled into the dock). Days like this make it almost easier to bear the 100 degree weather we have here in August. When we go back to San Diego, hopefully we will learn not to take the perfect weather for granted. Exquisite afternoon. I don't know how we did in the race with points being sorted out but I really didn't care.

Anywho...hope all of you who are freezing, thaw out soon and that the temps warm up a bit for you so it's tolerable. We DO miss having a white Christmas though - doesn't seem the same when you are wearing shorts and a tshirt.

Be safe.


78 is too hot for December. I'm glad you like it, but I'd rather be sitting in snow...
324. DDR
Snow in the usa,while im here in Trinidad (11n,61w)its been rain since thursday,5 inches at my location localised flooding in other areas.
Evening everybody. Just poking my head in after a [well deserved] break from the 'puter. U know when the BLOG starts to feel like work, it's time to take a break!

Quoting norcalengineer:
God help us when we humans grow such an ego that we start forcibly changing Earth's climate! Regardless of what we think, we are only able to truly study a tiny fraction of the Earth's atmospheric history. We have no business trying to force it one way or another. How do we know the Earth isn't supposed to warm up?
Last major "bioengineering" project I remember man attempting collectively was the Tower of Babel. . . . lol There is some warning in the religious literature about man[kind] figuring he can control stuff that he really can't, with assorted consequences.

OTOH, a lot of what we consider today as part of normal, average life could in some sense be considered human manipulation of the planet.

My concern is less whether or not humans can affect the planet; it's more can we genuinely conceive of the consequences of doing so. The point that came across most strongly from the doc's summation of the session is that most commenters seemed as concerned about the negative consequences of the engineering as they did about the potential positive outcomes.
Here's another one from the AGU..
The frequency of extremely high clouds in Earth's tropics -- the type associated with severe storms and rainfall -- is increasing as a result of global warming, according to a study by scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.

In a presentation yesterday to the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco, JPL Senior Research Scientist Hartmut Aumann outlined the results of a study based on five years of data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA's Aqua spacecraft. The AIRS data were used to observe certain types of tropical clouds linked with severe storms, torrential rain and hail. The instrument typically detects about 6,000 of these clouds each day. Aumann and his team found a strong correlation between the frequency of these clouds and seasonal variations in the average sea surface temperature of the tropical oceans.

For every degree Centigrade (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) increase in average ocean surface temperature, the team observed a 45-percent increase in the frequency of the very high clouds. At the present rate of global warming of 0.13 degrees Celsius (0.23 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade, the team inferred the frequency of these storms can be expected to increase by six percent per decade.

Evening all. Dropped in for a looksee. Interesting stuff I guess.

LOL Baha - "Tower of Babel". Amen to that!
Another AGU this was a NASA presentation.

New Satellite Data Reveal Impact of Olympic Pollution Controls
In contrast, levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) plunged nearly 50 percent in and around Beijing in August 2008 after officials instituted strict traffic restrictions in preparation for the Olympic Games. Credit: NASA
> Larger image Chinese government regulators had clearer skies and easier breathing in mind in the summer of 2008 when they temporarily shuttered some factories and banished many cars in a pre-Olympic sprint to clean up Beijing’s air. And that's what they got.

They were not necessarily planning for something else: an unprecedented experiment using satellites to measure the impact of air pollution controls. Taking advantage of the opportunity, NASA researchers have since analyzed data from NASA's Aura and Terra satellites that show how key pollutants responded to the Olympic restrictions.

According to atmospheric scientist Jacquelyn Witte and colleagues from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., the emission restrictions had an unmistakable impact. During the two months when restrictions were in place, the levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) -- a noxious gas resulting from fossil fuel combustion (primarily in cars, trucks, and power plants) -- plunged nearly 50 percent. Likewise, levels of carbon monoxide (CO) fell about 20 percent.

Witte presented the results on behalf of the team on Dec. 16 at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco.
Tropical Cyclone Advice #27
=====================================

At 9:00 am WDT. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Billy [997 hPa] located at 15.3S 125.9E or 490 kms northeast of Broome and 135 kms southwest of Kalumburu has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Billy is moving across the Kimberley and is expected to move off the coast Sunday night or early Monday, then redevelop into a tropical cyclone. Gales may develop between Kalumburu and Beagle Bay overnight or during Monday and may extend down the coast to Broome and Wallal late on Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Kalumburu to Beagle Bay.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Wallal.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
===================================
12 HRS: 15.3S 125.2E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
24 hRS: 15.3S 124.3E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 16.0S 121.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 17.6S 118.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

REMARKS:
EX TC Billy continues to track steadily to the west over the north Kimberley. The system has retained excellent structure over land. It is expected to remain in a low shear environment and should redevelop quickly on Monday as it moves offshore into an area of favourable SSTs. NWP is now analysing a stronger mid level ridge to the south, which is confirmed
by the observations and the models maintain the strength of the ridge through the next four days, keeping the system on a more westerly track. However the possibility of a coastal landfall is still significant. The UK vortex tracker output for the 201200UTC run appears significantly different to the track obtained by subjectively assessing the vorticity and wind fields.

Billy may become a severe tropical cyclone by Monday/Tuesday.
Hey, HGW.

I was thinking it highly likely Billy would ride the waves again. Wonder if BoM has a graphic showing the ridge location and possible movement over the next 72 hrs. . .
Quoting geebersgimmeabreak:


Man may be pitiably small, but not entirely powerless. Scientific inquiry is powerful, which is why the AGU panel was truly interesting (I was there too)


Many people don't seem to know what the current world population is; here is some perspective:

Can “Insignificant” Humans Alter the Earth’s Vast Atmosphere?

Let’s do a little simple math. The surface area of the Earth is 197,000,000 square miles. http://www.britannica.com/ebi/article-199816
The World’s population is 6,602,224,175 (July 2007 est.) https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html
This yields 33.51+ people per square mile. (Includes oceans) Our surface area allotment per person is a square a little over 912 feet by 912 feet, and our per capita atmospheric allotment is the air above this square.
Over 100 million low Michael, here is the current census bureau link, updated by the minute:

Link
A little more from my vicarious trip to the AGU shin dig, on geoengineering even..splitting stuff to make the ocean more basic so it can carbon sink more effectively..

AF: Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz (off-campus), L-645, LLNL 7000 East Ave., Livermore, CA 94550, United States
AB: Various schemes have been proposed to increase air-to-sea CO2 transfer and storage, including the addition of alkalinity to the ocean. Examples include the addition of: Ca(OH)2 derived from the thermal calcination of limestone (Kheshgi, 1995), NaOH from the electrochemical splitting of salt (House et al., 2007), and CaCO3 to carbonate-undersaturated waters (Harvey, 2008). Diluted in the ocean (to pH1/2O2+H2+Ca(HCO3)2aq. Laboratory experiments showed that such a system can generate excess alkalinity and elevated pH in seawater that subsequently allowed the absorption of 0.8 mM atmospheric CO2. Thus at larger scales, wind-, wave-, or solar-powered, fixed/floating platforms at the shoreline, in coastal waters, or in the open ocean might be employed to electrochemically increase ocean alkalinity. Such platforms would then: 1) enhance the ocean's natural absorption of atmospheric CO2, 2) help neutralize or offset the effects of ongoing ocean acidification, via the calcium hydroxide and/or bicarbonate production, and 3) generate carbon-negative H2 in the ratio 22kg CO2 absorbed/kg H2 produced.
Oh & Yikes!

AF: Ian S F Jones, Ocean Technology Group University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
AB: The remarkable doubling of the productivity of the land over the last 50 years raises the question of opportunities to follow suit in the sea. The rapidly rising population makes increasing demands on food supply and the disposal of waste in the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning It is well known that the supply of nutrients to the photic zone of the ocean limits primary production and this limitation can be removed by the addition of nutrients. The surface waters of the ocean are typically in the photic zone for a decade and their initial quota of nutrients are supplemented by cyanobacteria, atmospheric deposition and river inflows. Together with upwelling these nutrients support about 10,000GtC of new primary production per year. Extra nutrients can be sourced from the thermocline, from enhancing the diazotrophs or by chemically transforming elements on the land or in the atmosphere. Using thermocline nutrients to enhance productivity but are first order neutral for carbon sequestration. Diazotrophs seem restricted to temperate and tropical waters and need phosphate and other nutrients. The increased nitrogen they provide is expected to lead to more carbon storage in the ocean. The macronutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus and the micronutrients have all been shown to be beneficial. With increased new primary production we expect increased sustainable fish production but the species composition will depend on the success of recruitment.
UR: http://www.otg.usyd.edu.au
DE: 1622 Earth system modeling (1225)
DE: 4255 Numerical modeling (0545, 0560)
DE: 4800 OCEANOGRAPHY: BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL (0460)
SC: Ocean Sciences [OS]
MN: 2008 Fall Meeting


[Comments. This is the guy who wants to pump urea into the offshore waters to increase productivity. The environmental groups in the Philippines weren't as enthusiastic about it and that project ended rather abruptly. Last I heard, he was trying to get Oman or one of the Persian Gulf states to agree to a field project. Oman seems to be in the thick of it: ocean fertilization and olivine sequestration. This abstract is too vague to tell what it is about. AG]


A bit off-topic, but has anyone else noticed the correlation between sunspot-minima and major volcanic eruptions in the years 1950 to 1993 (haven't researched farther back). Not perfect but looks like 6 of 7, far above random probability. Not sure what it means, but interesting none the less.
according to our Encyclopedia Britannica, the land area of the world excluding the antarctic and greenland ice sheets is 52,350,178 square miles. This yields a square of 465 feet for each person.
I thought this is interesting analysis of changes in snowcover over the last 4 decades; notice that there has been no significant trend during the winter - in other words, we still see about the same amount of snow in the winter as 40 years ago (so it is incorrect to blame global warming for a relatively snowless winter; for example, it has (so far) been colder here this winter than last but only half as much snow has fallen, it has however been drier than normal as opposed to last winter, which started a record wet trend and had some very large snowfalls). The difference is almost all in the spring and summer; the summer snowcover has declined by almost 50% over the period, this year also had the lowest coverage on record during the summer and last year the second lowest:


A graph of snow cover data shows an obvious annual pattern, with more snow in winter and less in summer:



We can remove the average annual pattern to compute snow cover anomaly:



I’ve added a smoothed curve, which indicates that snow cover has decreased over the decades it’s been tracked by satellites. We can confirm the decline by fitting a trend line to the data:



This indicates that on average, for the last four decades snow cover has declined by about 45,000 km^2 per year. In fact the average northern hemisphere snow cover has declined during this time interval by about 2 million km^2. And yes, that decline is statistically significant.

But we can look closer by isolating snow cover during the different seasons of the year. I’ll use the standard climatological definitions of the seasons, Dec-Jan-Feb for winter, Mar-Apr-May for spring, Jun-Jul-Aug for summer, and Sep-Oct-Nov for fall. If we look at winter snow cover, we don’t see any obvious trend, and in fact a regression indicates that there’s no significant change in winter snow cover:



It’s really not a surprise that there’s no trend in winter snow cover. Warmer temperature tends to melt snow, but also causes more water vapor in the air, so there’s more possibility of snow. And as long as it’s still cold enough to snow (which it still is during winter), we shouldn’t be surprised by no change in snow cover.

Springtime snow cover tells a different story:



This time there is a statistically significant trend, snow cover declining at about 68,000 km^2/yr. This is due to higher temperature causing earlier, and greater, springtime snowmelt.

The trend is even stronger in summer:



Average summer snow cover has declined at a whopping 99,000 km^2/yr. Again, higher temperature is the reason. The lowest average summer snow cover yet recorded was for 2008; the 2nd-lowest was 2007.

Autumn shows signs of a decline, but the decrease is not statistically significant:



So, autumn snow cover might be declining, but then again, it might not.

The seasonal pattern of snow cover shows that there’s been no noticeable decline during fall and winter, so we shouldn’t be the least bit surprised by the large snowfall over the U.S. this past week. We can also plainly see that snow cover exhibits extremely large fluctuations, so again last week’s snowfall is no surprise whatever, and no harbinger of any reversal of global warming. But the rapid decline of springtime snow cover over the last four decades, and the even more rapid decline of summer snow cover, show the mark of global warming unambiguously. And despite what some like to shout, the statistically strong trends are what’s important, not the statistically normal noise.
Great comment MichaelSTL.

Thank you.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

you're kidding right that's amazing


They have, its pretty amazing the machine they use to do it is about the size of 2 briefcases. I saw it on Science channel not to long ago.
338. MichaelSTL 3:04 AM GMT on December 21, 2008

Wow. That was cool. Thank you for that.
Go Winter! Go snow!
we got 8.5 inches friday into saturday and 4-8inches for tomorrow. I made a 9 foot tall snow pile...using only a shovel i might add...and i intend to make a massive igloo. Of course every day from wednesday to next sunday we're going to make it in to the upper 30's to mid 40's...so i'll enjoy it while it lasts.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number TWENTY-NINE
EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
3:40 PM WDT December 21 2008
=====================================

At 3:00 pm WDT, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Billy [997 hPa] located at 15.3S 125.5E or 460 kms northeast of Broome and 165 kms southwest of Kalumburu has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Billy is moving across the Kimberley and is expected to move off the coast late Sunday night or early Monday then redevelop into a tropical cyclone during Monday. Gales may develop between Kalumburu and Beagle Bay overnight or during Monday and may extend down the coast to Broome and Wallal late on Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warning
=============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Kalumburu to Beagle Bay.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Wallal.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
==================================
12 HRS: 15.3S 124.7E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
24 HRS: 15.4S 123.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.3S 121.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 17.4S 118.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

REMARKS:
Ex-TC Billy continues to track steadily to the west over the north Kimberley. The system has retained excellent structure over land. It is expected to remain in a low shear environment and should redevelop quickly on Monday as it moves offshore into an area of favourable SSTs. Shear and ocean heat conditions are
expected to remain favourable for at least the next three days. The mid-level ridge to the south of ex-Billy is stronger than was previously forecast by NWP and the models maintain the strength of the ridge through the
next four days. Of equal or greater significance to the future motion of the system will be the development and movement of the low currently in the Gulf of Carpentaria. This system is expected to track steadily west over the base of the Top End of the Northern Territory and reach the NT/WA border on Tuesday night. NWP now portrays this sytem as having enough strength to erode the peripheral
ridge to the east of 03U/05S and this is likely the primary reason for the change in model forecast motion from southwest to westwards on Wednesday and Thursday.

If this trailing system is not strong enough to erode the peripheral ridge then a southwest track towards the coast is likely, and so the possibility of a coastal landfall is still significant.
Wow Orca must be angry. It's snowing like crazy here. Last time we had this much snow must've been the blizzard of '96 or maybe we have more I can't tell. Anyways here's some pics. and there's atleast 5-10 cm more now then when these pics. were taken. Btw I live in Victoria on the island.

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Hello,
It is certainly beside me how these people that have been skawlking about climate change and the effect man has had on it and now they talk about changing it on purpose.
They just can't get enough . Only and idiot would change it purposely. Anything you try to do on purpose the earth and her system will counter in a big way. it would be suicide to do so . I don't believe they are as intelligent as they proclaim nor as anyone would want them to be if they try this foulishness.
The Untited States Air Force has been fooling with the atmosphere for 30 years or so trying to excite the Ioniphere to simulate the effects of the solar winds .Making the atmosphere react in a way that the ions appear to be when the solar winds cause the northern lights.Could be this has had an effect on the climate itself.
the solar winds don't always create these lights,but yet the Air Force in it's wisdom has been trying to duplicate it in Alaska and in Austrailia.
To mess with that inwhitch will counter no matter whatt hey do is plain foulish and I believe it is not in the interest of sience nor is it in our intrest .
Maybe one day when or if we ever have the ability to go elsewhere in the Universe it might be in the intrest of science then and only then would it be advisable to do such things.
It is my hope that these people come to thier sences about such things . This is my earth as well as yours ,but if these people have these kinds of ambitions maybe they don't need a country !!Maybe it is time to take away the finacial base thes kind of people have to operate.
Have a good day .
oh yea ;if you talk about it then the next step is to do it.!!!!
Dew
don't be fooled about the statistics. If and i mean if there is any substanence to it ;It will change . we are in a cooling cycle . these statistics will in 30 years or three decades show a rise so there isn'nt anyhting new nor is any of this data conclusive. you would have to study these same statistics over a 1,000 years to be conclusive .!!!!!!!!!!
Good morning. :)
Morning Cotillion
ILM is 62
Light Rain
Forecast for 67 and Rain
However tomorrow is going to be 40F/27F !!!!
Quoting MissNadia:
Morning Cotillion
ILM is 62
Light Rain
Forecast for 67 and Rain
However tomorrow is going to be 40F/27F !!!!


Ouchie. Fairly warm today as Britain goes, and will be for the next few days. Looks like it's going to drop some next week, though.
Good morning all.

Quoting vortfix:
Good morning all.




How about them Ravens? :D
Ha ha ha Cotillion!
The first thing I checked this morning was the final score of that game. LOL

I was tired last night and couldn't stay up to watch the whole game.

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
358 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

VALID 12Z SUN DEC 21 2008 - 00Z TUE DEC 23 2008

A PAIR OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOWS WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER...ONE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TIER...WHILE THE OTHER WILL
IMPACT A MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. BEGINNING WITH
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING ALONG THE EAST COAST...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE WITH A COASTAL LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THIS SET-UP...COMMONLY
KNOWN AS A NOR EASTER...WILL ALLOW THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO
RIDE UP THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE DURING SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE
MEAN TIME...A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL DRAW AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
THE COMBINATION OF A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT
THE SURFACE...STRONG UPPER FORCING FROM THE CLOSED LOW...AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGES FOR A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
EVENT. WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF THE MARYLAND/PENNSYLVANIA BORDER WILL
EXPERIENCE A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...AND RAIN...IT WILL
MAINLY BE A SNOW EVENT NORTH OF THIS REGION...INCLUDING THE MAJOR
CITIES OF NEW YORK CITY AND BOSTON. THE SNOWFALL SHOULD COMMENCE
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...WITH THE ACTIVITY
PICKING UP BY SUNDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. BESIDES THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL...WIND WILL ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR
WITH THIS STORM. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE WITH THE LOW DROPS 24
MILLIBARS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
WILL QUICKLY PICK UP IN STRENGTH ALLOWING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH TO SPREAD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. ONCE THIS STORM SYSTEM
MOVES WELL INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL HIT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TRAIN WILL START
UP AGAIN BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOWS TO THE MAJOR GREAT LAKES. THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN ACROSS LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN
BEFORE SPREADING TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY OVERNIGHT ON
SUNDAY.

OUT WEST...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DESCENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
CREATED BY THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE SUB-1000 MILLIBAR LOW OFF THE COAST OF
WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. WITH SNOW AND WIND IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON...BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW ENTERS THE WEST COAST AND CROSSES INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SNOWFALL WILL HIT THE
REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVIER
SNOWS WILL INITIALLY RESIDE ACROSS THE LOWER CASCADES AND THE
SIERRA NEVADAS ON SUNDAY BEFORE SPREADING FARTHER INLAND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL AFFECT
THE SAN JUANS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO BY MONDAY EVENING.

AS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE CENTER OF THE
NATION...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL HIT MUCH OF THE U.S...WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE ZERO DEGREE MARK ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THAT
NIGHT...ENOUGH COOLING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH THE ABUNDANT SNOW
COVER TO DROP TEMPERATURES TO THE -20 DEGREE MARK. THE INFLUENCE
OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL NOT BE RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHERN
TIER...AS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS CAN ALSO EXPECT
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING THIS SHOT OF
COLD AIR WILL BE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER OVER THE REGION.


RUBIN-OSTER



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The Nation's Weather
By WEATHER UNDERGROUND – 41 minutes ago

A major Pacific storm slammed into the West Coast on Sunday, producing heavy rain and high elevation snow throughout the Northwest. Various storm warnings, including Blizzard Warnings in the Cascades, were in effect due to the intensity of the storm. By Monday morning, many higher elevation areas in the Northwest were to have received upward of 3 feet of new snow. The storm's main cold front was to progress southward through California and eastward into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Rain was forecast for the northern half of California. Winter Storm Warnings were in effect for the western slopes of the Sierra Nevadas as lowering snow levels were to provide upwards of 2 feet of new snow. Strong wind gusts was also to produce blizzard conditions in areas of the mountain range.

Significant snow was also to move through the Intermountain West, where similar winter weather advisories were posted.

Elsewhere, a developing storm was moving northeastward along the eastern seaboard. Another shot of wintry weather was anticipated for New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Winter Storm Warnings were likewise posted for that region. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour were expected and many areas were to receive upwards of a foot of new snow.

Cold flow over the Great Lakes was to produce lake effect snow in Michigan, while snow in Wisconsin was to gradually wane.

Temperatures were to be in the 20s and 30s in the Northeast; 60s in the Southeast Coast; single digits and 10s in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest; 50s and 60s in the Southwest; and 20s and 30s in the Northwest.

Temperatures in the Lower 48 states Saturday ranged from minus 31 degrees at Polbridge, Mont. to 87 degrees at McAllen, Texas.
Morning all.
Rained all night long.
Sun is trying valiantly to show its Smiling face this morning.
2.5" in the last 2 days.
The lawn is a mess of mud. Being eaten by some kind of Fish ??
Or could it be Water Voles? RTLSLK thinks it might be.
The chickens are not helping matters at all.
They are scratching up the place, using their claws like pickaxes.
A Severe Response is being planned.
Any good ideas ??
Any good ideas ??


Hop a flight to Miami and enjoy the beautiful weather in south Florida.
Don't return till the place dries out!

ROFL...Good morning Pottery.

Morning, vort.

Looks like cold day all around.

This morning the sun is shining and wind is minimal. So long as the jet doesn't dip, the weather in Nassau will stay fine.

Stay safe, everyone, and WARM!!!!
Excellent job everyone with the Bridge City Christmas Party last night...
Hi Baha.

Sounds like great weather for Nassau as well.

A little cooler here this morning (59).
Christmas weather is forecast to be warm and sunny with the high around 80.

I like the Christmases that start off cold, with that winter bite in the air, then warm up to some delightful temperature just below 80, so the kids can run outside and play with their new bikes and other toys after Christmas dinner. I don't know how much of a bite we'll get, but at least it doesn't look like it'll be drizzling, which is good.

However, the more important forecast is for Thursday NIGHT, because it needs to be clear and preferably cold so that the annual Boxing Day Junkanoo parade can go off properly.
pottery, i thought this was your dry season and its 52 and foggy here in Zephyrhills FL oh yeah Good Morning All all most forgot.
That is not just a bad idea - it's an insane idea and a waste of money. But you'll have the right administration for that sort of nonsense soon. Hang tight.
Quoting 1redcat:
That is not just a bad idea - it's an insane idea and a waste of money. But you'll have the right administration for that sort of nonsense soon. Hang tight.
Actually I think u just got rid of the "right" admin for that sort of nonsense. By that I mean the type that'll keep on doing the same destructive nonsense then when it's too late try some last ditch effort, because by then it'd look like logic. . . .
Pottery- one word:

Chainsaw.

Solves ALL my problems.
Been wandering around this blog seeing some strange stuff, but at least no threatening hurricanes. Hope to do some sailing in January. Soon it will be time to shake out the wrinkles in the main. Went skiing yesterday and it was cold but the snow was good, though thin. I liked the forecast Gray and Koltzbach have given for next season.
365. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Morning all.
Rained all night long.
Sun is trying valiantly to show its Smiling face this morning.
2.5" in the last 2 days.
The lawn is a mess of mud. Being eaten by some kind of Fish ??
Or could it be Water Voles? RTLSLK thinks it might be.
The chickens are not helping matters at all.
They are scratching up the place, using their claws like pickaxes.
A Severe Response is being planned.
Any good ideas ??

Hey pottery,i've recorded 5.25 inches( trinidad) in the past 4 days, looks like fine weather until latter this week,weird weather don't you think?The ground was shacking here,may around 4.0 in magnitude.
post # 362 gets my vote as the most brilliant, well reasoned post of the year....
A foot of snow..and still falling :(
I even had to shovel a trail for the dogs to go outside... bichon/shitsu crosses are to low to the ground

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
Quoting presslord:
post # 362 gets my vote as the most brilliant, well reasoned post of the year....


You guys are still talking politics?
Anyone that bored and have a spare snow shovel.. come on up.
Orca - surely you can offer me something better then that!!!
Whatthehell is a "snow shovel"?!?!?!?!?!
Aquak9 -----Wooooohooooooooooo Happy Winter Solstice!!!! Was hoping I could find you this morning!!!
Portlight has the BEST parties .... just want to know .... who wore the Santa costume?????
Quoting Orcasystems:
A foot of snow..and still falling :(

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
Quoting surfmom:
Orca - surely you can offer me something better then that!!!


Umm I have tequila :)
A snow shovel is a tool of torture... unlike a sand shovel which is a tool of fun
Quoting presslord:
Whatthehell is a "snow shovel"?!?!?!?!?!


Not sure, bought it off the Internet.. from some place called Macon GA, apparently they will need them this year also.
That will work Orca -- cept I have no appropriate garments for your neck of the woods....
Quoting surfmom:
A snow shovel is a tool of torture... unlike a sand shovel which is a tool of fun


This is not going to be a fun day :(
Ah....Macon, GA....home of snow shovels...my first wife...and many other useless objects....
Ooooops this is a Sunny Sunday -- better lock up my creative imagination

Quoting surfmom:
That will work Orca -- cept I have no appropriate garments for your neck of the woods....


Ummmmmmmmmm (thought deleted)
I also have Rum and a fireplace.
Quoting presslord:
Ah....Macon, GA....home of snow shovels...my first wife...and many other useless objects....


To funny :)
brb off to shovel
Well, dear Orca, if it's any comfort... I'll be shoveling horse poop in a few hours -- honestly though much prefer my shoveling activity to yours.... I'll be shovelling in shorts & a t-shirt
Sounds a wee bit better -- but I'm too thin skinned for the cold........

Nice visual, Orca with a tan - shoveling snow LOL
354 Pottery -- give up the lawn, I let my chickens take over the back -- maybe you could get some pygmy goats to mow the lawn
Quoting presslord:
post # 362 gets my vote as the most brilliant, well reasoned post of the year....
Thanks. I appreciate your support.
Quoting surfmom:
A snow shovel is a tool of torture... unlike a sand shovel which is a tool of fun
Not to mention the difference in size and usually colour.

BoM's latest on ex-TC Billy:



Looks like it still has a fair chance of reinvigorating. I think it's due to keep heading west if it does, however, which hopefully means damage could be kept to a minimum.
msphar - LOL - you can keep the snow activities... on the on hand taking the Sailboat out truly catches my interest..... I NEED some hot carib sun and waters -- too far for me to swim, kayak, or paddle to Trin, or that Carib hideaway Orca went to.
Yes Baha -- a well reason thought -- only problem is that as long as the BANKSTERS & the Fed Reserve are in control -- we are not

Money Talks - and that is for both sides of the ocean.
OOOP no one mentioned this yet... and I figured someone beat me to it....buttttt

HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE - @7:04 am - HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE..........................soon spring will be on it's way ---- YEAAAAAA

cause I'm wanting some Hot Summer Sun
Quoting surfmom:
Yes Baha -- a well reason thought -- only problem is that as long as the BANKSTERS & the Fed Reserve are in control -- we are not

Money Talks - and that is for both sides of the ocean.
I think a lot of our conversation about weather and climate is useful and important, but while the money men are seeing only the $$ aspects of climate, we will continue to make minimal headway. Most people making the financial decisions aren't thinking about long-term investment. They are more interested in getting the largest most immediate profits from their dealings.

It's reality. [shrugs]
Surfmom - we have a three week cruise planned, starting with Vieques and working eastward to anagada. Hopfully hitting all the virgin islands in between. Should be fun. Boat sails on the 4th. Three young studs and one old fart to ride herd on their misbehaviors.
any room in the Galley -- I cook 24/7 here at home.... might as well get something for it LOL

Howz about pulling into SRQ -- lovely bay, good amenities.............. well nothing like where you're going and far too civilized

OK I'm off -- I am happy to announce I am going to run till I drop from the BLISS of exhaustion.........(use to be 20 miles, but today a mere 15) The weather is perfect, the sunny is just marvelous...... perhaps when I pass the beach one of the orca pods will be out, or maybe some dolpins. I'm hoping the Osprey that lives by the drawbridge will greet me -- I call him KEEPEROFTHEGATE, opening music on the IPOD are the best kick ass music from Pirates of the Carib -- I'll be sending ALL my WU friends the peace, serenity and JOY that I find on these runs via the morphic field -- that I find truly amazing. (check out Rupert Sheldrake's book DOGS KNOW WHEN THEIR OWNERS ARE COMING HOME & OTHER UNEXPLAINED POWERS OF ANIMALS!!!
yes Baha - a reality -- but...when you see the actions of the "little guy" aka Portlight......maybe, just maybe,,, in the meantime we must continue to do the right thing and pay it forward....I beleive in miracles

OK I'm out
With all due respect to the experts working on this global warming/climate change thing, I just can’t wrap my brain around the theory or the duel premise. That being, that it’s happening and that it’s caused by human activity. There are forecasts of doom, global catastrophe, “…it may already be too late…we must act and act now!” This crisis seems to have become so imminent, that we can’t even apply real science (that is, the scientific method) to the problem. Computer models and theorists seem to be running this show. The models predict the climate change potential and the theorists then predict the destruction and devastation it will cause, along with improvable theoretical solutions for the situation--couched in the caveat, “of course we don’t know if these measures will work but we have to act and act now!”
Then suddenly, CO2 becomes classified as a pollutant? A gas that has been considered to have relative proportional insignificant in our atmosphere. A gas that rolls in and out of solution with the churning of the ocean. A gas that we exhale and is produced by virtually all types of human activity--from power generation to water purification, to manufacturing to transportation to--you name it…this gas must be controlled?
Today we are told that virtually everything unpleasant that happens on the planet is caused by climate change--from the presumed extinction of some obscure species to Katrina to the extremely cold winter we are experiencing currently--and the endless list goes on.
Many scientists and meteorologists do not buy the premise, but they are discredited and ignored by such esteemed climatologists as Al Gore, who--well, he might be a lawyer--I’m not sure. But he’s definitely spent most of his life as an environmental extremist. Many other politicians and governments (not to mention, the mainstream media) have decided to jump on this runaway train--people who are usually about as qualified as Al Gore to lead on these issues. And right there is the most terrifying aspect of the argument. This is a terrific opportunity for governments to jump in and seize massive amounts of power and control over everything we do! Yes everything. If you don’t think they’ll do it, then read a history book. Personally, I’d rather contend with the potential undesirable results of climate change.
It’s unacceptable to me to sit back and watch the planet be taken over by governments who justify their dictatorial acquisitions of power on a theory that the leaders have decided to “believe in.” As an American, I don’t want to see our liberties and freedoms, our capitalistic pursuits, our productivity, our way of life or our culture itself be corrupted by a belief system that is substantiated by circumstantial evidence, anecdotes and extrapolations. But George Bush believes in man-made climate change-- Obama believes, McCain believes, the UN believes. They have all said just that.
Frankly, I don’t want our society; our reality shaped and dictated by someone else’s “belief” in a theory. There is a boiling point for water--it’s a scientific fact. It’s repeatable, it’s verifiable--I don’t have to believe in it. This is science. Acceptance of man-made climate change and all of its disastrous results requires faith. This is religion.
Over the last fifty years, we’ve been warned (by scientists) of many coming catastrophes. We were going to run out of oil, trees water and air. We were going to suffer from overpopulation, a new mini-ice age, a variety of pandemics, the asteroid strike that “will someday happen,” a nuclear Armageddon and the list goes on. Most of these things were supposed to happen by the year 2000. But here we are--none of it has.
Unfortunately, this potential crisis has taken on a life of its own. It will have the ingredients of politics and the force of government. If the discipline and logic of science is not enforced and the fear mongering is not contained then the primary havoc wrought by climate change will not come so much from a rise in global temperatures as it will from our governments.
Can someone straighten me out on this conflict?



Can someone straighten me out on this conflict?

Nope...LOL
And after Michael gets through insulting you, you'll be even further awash.
I just keep reading and try to learn.Maybe something will "click" one day.
Quoting theshepherd:
Can someone straighten me out on this conflict?




Yeah. Ignore it. That's what I do.

It's bliss as the well worn cliche explicitly states. Still yet to find any evidence which draws me into the debate on either side...

Take the common side approach of reducing emissions and increasing recycling, and you win either way. Job done. :)

So many debates aren't worth the pixels they're typed on...
There, there (theshepherd)I wrote on this blog because it's full of experts and weather lovers. If I wanted insults, I'd have written Don Rickles. If I wanted kooks, I'd have written Air America.
Admittedly, I'm not an expert and it's not my intention to be contentious.
moonrocker - You might want to try Understanding and Responding to Climate Change from the National Academies of Science. I found it to be a good read and the source is credible.

FYI - the link is to a 3.3 MB pdf so those with slow connections might want to use caution.
Quoting Cotillion:
Still yet to find any evidence which draws me into the debate on either side...


Just curious, what kind of evidence are you looking for? There is already more than enough evidence (and more coming in virtually daily; e.g. another study that shows no link to cosmic rays, a favorite of the deniers (e.g. Inhofe's report mentions it a couple dozen times, never mind that the scientists on his lists are not actually scientists or misrepresented); more record ice melt (this suggests that current sea level rise is underestimated), things happening faster than predicted) to see which is right.
I'm with ya Moonrocker.
Quoting moonrocker:
There, there (theshepherd)I wrote on this blog because it's full of experts and weather lovers. If I wanted insults, I'd have written Don Rickles. If I wanted kooks, I'd have written Air America.
It's all good...no harm, no foul...LOL
I read this blog to learn about weather and climate, not to eavesdrop on the personal chitchat of people I don't know. I started flagging things the do not conform to the standard of being "relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself," but there were so many I gave up. Is there a webmaster or someone who screens comments for relevance?
Also, some claim that we have entered a "cooling cycle", for which there is no basis (they usually point out the predictions for low solar activity, but consider this); the past year was cooler because of ENSO, as shown below; there is no indication to suggest otherwise (notice the few most recent seasons, nevermind that a solar minimum cannot possibly cause a sudden drop over a few months, or that a La Nina is a condition where heat flow into the ocean is increased (El Nino by contrast is a release of heat) and most of the energy absorbed by the earth goes into the oceans):



That is also evident when you see which areas were cooler compared to recent years; in contrast, notice which areas were warmer (that is more significant considering the 2000s so far are 0.2*C warmer than the 1990s):

Quoting MichaelSTL:


Just curious, what kind of evidence are you looking for? There is already more than enough evidence (and more coming in virtually daily; e.g. another study that shows no link to cosmic rays, a favorite of the deniers (e.g. Inhofe's report mentions it a couple dozen times, never mind that the scientists on his lists are not actually scientists or misrepresented); more record ice melt (this suggests that current sea level rise is underestimated), things happening faster than predicted) to see which is right.


Not so much that kind of evidence, STL.

For those who have pointed out that GW is a real phenomenon and is enhanced by human activity... offer certain guidelines of what we most do to stop or at the very least, curb the threat. Stopping CO2 emissions, recycle more, etc.

Which isn't really much specifically to do with GW at all... it's common sense to do so for the sake of everyone's health, financial situation and well being. So, if we all do those then:

a.) If Global Warming is very real, then we've done our bit to save civilisation. (Not 'save the planet' - The planet will be just fine heated up or no.)

b.) If it isn't, then we've helped ourselves anyway on other environmental concerns that are not at all contentious and for the sake of areas such as renewable energy - we won't run out.

The type of evidence I refer to is evidence refuting that. If to lessen the impacts of global warming require more than simple common sense measures (that we should be doing *anyway*) with adequate evidence to suggest that we must, then I may well join the 'debate'.
To me, it really does not matter whether it exists or not, whether it's anthropological or a natural occurrence. A matter for academics only, really. I'm not an academic in this particular field, so I don't feel compelled to join it.

Same merit as the question whether God exists or not. Does it matter? No. (That's not from the perspective of an atheist; although I'm yet undecided on my religious tendencies I disagree with 'If there's no evidence, then it can't be real' perspective.) What matters is how religion affects people, be it negatively or positively.

Maybe that 'people-centric' side of me comes from my actual field of social science and humanities but that's me.

Hope you understand where I'm coming from. :) No disrespect to those who do pay attention to the areas of the debate that I don't, either.

cot
Maybe we need a new "text abrev" for the GW debate?
TWCRYO=Typed With Compassion Respect Your Opinion...LOL
Quoting theshepherd:
cot
Maybe we need a new "text abrev" for the GW debate?
TWCRYO=Typed With Compassion Respect Your Opinion...LOL


Hah!

I'll have to keep that one tucked up in my repertoire..

more intresting tibits from AGU

AB: On July 12, 2008, the Okmok volcano (53.43°N, 168.13°W) in the Aleutian Islands erupted, injecting about 0.1 Tg SO2 into the lower stratosphere. On August 8, the nearby Kasatochi volcano (52.18°N, 175.51°W) erupted, injecting an additional 1.5 Tg SO2 into the lower stratosphere. This is the largest stratospheric injection of sulfate aerosol precursors since the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. Using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE general circulation model, we calculated the expected climate response to the resulting sulfate aerosol cloud. We conducted a five- member ensemble of two year runs, and compared our results to interannual variability. We conclude that the resulting cooling and changes in stratospheric circulation would be difficult to detect. We also calculate the amount of additional aerosols expected to remain in the stratosphere in the spring of 2009 and quantify their potential effect on ozone depletion..

So we did have a "good volcano year" not since '91 have we had this much sulfur go up. Pretty startling that not much effect is expected, especially with a move back into La Nina conditions. Perhaps this has helped with the dramatic ice recovery after a scary Sept.
Just what a guy needs who just shovelled a foot of snow of his driveway.

Severe Weather Bulletin
issued by Environment Canada
at 10:21 am PST Sunday 21 December 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Watches/warnings in effect for coastal British Columbia...

Snowfall warning for:
Metro Vancouver
Greater Victoria
Fraser valley
Howe Sound
Sunshine Coast
southern Gulf islands
East Vancouver Island
west Vancouver Island
inland Vancouver Island
North Vancouver Island.

An additional 5 to 10 cm of snow for areas of the South Coast
are expected today and tonight. Higher amounts over localized
areas are possible.


Quoting Skyepony:
So we did have a "good volcano year" not since '91 have we had this much sulfur go up. Pretty startling that not much effect is expected, especially with a move back into La Nina conditions. Perhaps this has helped with the dramatic ice recovery after a scary Sept.


Speaking of Arctic ice, it has actually been falling over the past week and is now lower than last year at this time, very interesting (esp. the slight decline, though it is likely due to the current NH weather patterns):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Also, I doubt that ENSO, at least, has any connection to Arctic ice cover, since you'd expect to see large drops after El Ninos and increases after La Ninas (the map I posted of 2008 temps vs. recent years also shows that it was actually warmer this year in the Arctic than 2001-2007, also interesting how very warm conditions were present during the rapid ice freeze-up, which is to be expected since freezing releases heat, although it is paradoxical).
Post 411, 413
TWCRYO
Interesting...
Michael, that decrease in arctic sea ice area is bizarre! Has arctic sea ice ever decreased in December before?
Just in to say that I have really enjoyed the discussion here over the past 2 days or so.
9 December 2008
Media Advisory: NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice Scientist at Press Briefing
NSIDC Research Scientist and Arctic sea ice expert Julienne Stroeve will join a panel of scientists on December 16 at 9:00 am Pacific Standard Time for a press briefing on Arctic change. Stroeve will discuss the emergence and implications of stronger warming in the Arctic compared to the rest of the globe, a process tied to the rapid decline of summer Arctic sea ice.

Please see below for call-in information for reporters not attending the Fall American Geophysics Union (AGU) Conference. Please contact Peter Weiss at pweiss@agu.org or Maria-Jose Vinas at mjvinas@agu.org for more information on attending AGU with press credentials.

Press briefing details
The Arctic in Flux: New Insights from the International Polar Year

Continuing climate changes in the Arctic received renewed scientific attention during the International Polar Year (IPY), which began in February 2007. This briefing presents early results from a range of studies conducted during IPY based on climate models and new observations taken from sea, land, and space.

Findings include evidence that the predicted amplification of Arctic warming caused by decreasing sea ice has already begun (Stroeve); large increases in tundra greenness along North America's Arctic coasts (Walker); the discovery of new seeps of the greenhouse gas methane along the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (Semiletov); and a lengthening snowmelt season and a second year of ice mass loss in Greenland (Tedesco).

To read more about conference sessions related to the press briefing, search for sessions C41B and U23F at the 2008 AGU Fall Meeting Web site.

Panelists

So who do we believe?
The AGU or the NSIDC over same time period?
WUnder why we have skeptics.
shepard, it sounds like both the AGU and the NSIDC are both in agreement. What is the conflict?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Michael, that decrease in arctic sea ice area is bizarre! Has arctic sea ice ever decreased in December before?


I don't know how unusual that is, but I haven't seen it happen before (though not very long time; more likely to happen closer to the winter max). The monthly extent for December will still be higher than November though; the current anomaly is likely indicative of a pattern that favors ice breakup (if it were summer we would likely be seeing a sharp decline, perhaps like July 2007).
It is man's hubris that got us into this situation in the first place. Further meddling with natural processes can only make things worse, in ways that we can only imagine. This is reality not science fiction. We don't possess even a small fraction of the knowledge necessary to safely begin such an undertaking. Let's start by eliminating our negative, destabilizing contributions to the equation and then see if nature doesn't balance it the rest of the way.
To shepherd: Thanks for the words...I knew you were light of heart.

To Cot: I too am worried about the human element. Specifically, tyranny. Despots typically gain a stronghold while the people are in the throws of some crisis (real, preceived or predicted) The usual safegards are overridden on behalf of the common good. (we can see a version of this in the government's reactions to the current monitary crisis) Saul Alinsky, in his Rules for Radicals (which advocates rebellion and Socialism for our country) points to environmental issues as an excellent cause for the government to seize on in the pursuit of unfettered regulation and control of the people.
And along comes this climate change threat. Look at the result. Rules and regulations are looming everywhere--all for our own good of course. We must be saved from ourselves--not with the usual subtle governmental guidance, but now with proposed radical restructuring of our society and lifestyle.
I think humans (especially Americans) can far better adjust to climate change than to tyrannical impositions of an unfettered government.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
shepard, it sounds like both the AGU and the NSIDC are both in agreement. What is the conflict?
So we did have a "good volcano year" not since '91 have we had this much sulfur go up. Pretty startling that not much effect is expected, especially with a move baFindings include evidence that the predicted amplification of Arctic warming caused by decreasing sea ice has already begun (Stroeve); large increases in tundra greenness along North America's Arctic coasts (Walker); the discovery of new seeps of the greenhouse gas methane along the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (Semiletov); and a lengthening snowmelt season and a second year of ice mass loss in Greenland (Tedescock into La Nina conditions. Perhaps this has helped with the dramatic ice recovery after a scary Sept.

Stsimguy...Combining comments in same paragraph, maybe shows my confusion.
What did I miss?...LOL

Sorry for the distraction into sociology/politics from weather. Unfortuantely, the two have become interlinked by the climate change arguement. Now I've been warned that I'm supposed to be talking about "tropical weather." My original entry was responding to Jeff's Climate Change meeting blog. Not sure how tropical weather got involved.
TWCRYO
Moonrocker
Interdisciplinary comparisons are welcome unless there is a dire weather situation exchange or someone starts overthehill candidate support.
Beware the law of unintended consequences. Reducing direct sunlight coming to the surface will reduce primary productivity. This in turn will both impact the food chain and also reduce CO2 uptake.

Not a smart move.
Thanks for the info Shepherd. I'm not an experienced blogger. Don't want to ruffle any feathers.
Quoting DocBen:
Beware the law of unintended consequences. Reducing direct sunlight coming to the surface will reduce primary productivity. This in turn will both impact the food chain and also reduce CO2 uptake.

Not a smart move.


There are other problems as well, as discussed here (example, see what happens if we did it and then stopped for any reason, while doing nothing to cut emissions (huge temperature rise, also reduces global precipitation); it also wouldn't stop ocean acidification, which is currently occurring 10 times the expected rate; notice the subtitle of this article; "Carbon Emissions Don't Just Cause Global Warming").
Micheal, that graph of the arctic sea ice extent looks odd to me. It doesn't look natural. It just suddenly, seemingly, cuts off. It'll resume again I'm sure, but it still looks out of place, imho. Maybe Santa Claus is performing his own geoengineering project to save his north pole factory and it went awry.

Is that change in arctic sea ice extent somehow related to the coldspell the northwestern and middle US states are experiencing?

nonamenm... The problem with saying that we shouldn't meddle with nature is that in the same sentence you say we should reduce what we're currently doing. Reduce what? Reduce CO2? Aren't we, by reducing our CO2 emissions, meddling with nature? Is that not going to alter nature somehow? Are we certain that the law of unintended consequences doesn't also apply in this instance?

moonrocker... socialism? Government involvment isn't such a far out idea when you consider we're still a democracy. The problem is that the number of people representing us stays hte same, but our population increases - fewer and fewer people represent us in governemnt. That can't be good!
"Reducing direct sunlight coming to the surface will reduce primary productivity."

This assumes that sunlight is the limiting factor in plant growth, which generally isn't the case in nature. Think about the Olympic Peninsula with lots of cloudy days and lots of plant growth versus southern Utah with very few cloudy days and not much plant growth. In large stretches of the ocean, lack of iron limits algae growth so reducing sunlight isn't going to have a large effect on productivity.
Quoting paratomic:
Micheal, that graph of the arctic sea ice extent looks odd to me. It doesn't look natural. It just suddenly, seemingly, cuts off. It'll resume again I'm sure, but it still looks out of place, imho. Maybe Santa Claus is performing his own geoengineering project to save his north pole factory and it went awry.

Is that change in arctic sea ice extent somehow related to the coldspell the northwestern and middle US states are experiencing?


I think it is - there is only so much cold air in the Arctic and if a large amount drops south somewhere warmer air has to flow north to replace it. As for how unusual it is, it may be caused by a similar pattern as what happened in July 2007 when there was a sudden sharp drop in ice extent (only that was in the summer so it amplified the normal ice loss instead of retarding ice growth). It will probably pick up again, though if it trends towards a lower maximum than last winter the chances of another extreme summertime melt increases (this year had the greatest ice loss on record when looking at winter max - summer min; a higher max than 2007 prevented another record low).
Repost from a couple of days ago because it is soooo pertinent to what we usually do in this blog:


Woah, now this is interesting...

"The life cycles of two real tropical cyclones successfully predicted with a global model that resolves cloud systems

Atmospheric models that resolve clouds have greatly contributed to understanding local and regional climate; excessive computational needs have in the past allowed these models to be run only over limited areas. The increasing capability of high-end computers now allows numerical simulations with horizontal resolutions high enough to resolve cloud systems in a global model. Fudeyasu et al. (2008) analyzed initial results from the global Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), developed by Japanese scientists. In their study, NICAM simulation successfully reproduced the life cycles of two real tropical cyclones that formed in the Indian Ocean in 2006s austral summer. Initialized with atmospheric conditions that were present a few weeks before the cyclones formed, the model captured the timing of formation, motions, and overall evolution of the observed cyclones. The successful simulation is attributed to the realistic representation of the large-scale circulation and the embedded convective vortices. Thus, NICAM provides high temporal and spatial resolution data sets for detailed studies of tropical cyclone genesis and evolution, potentially ushering in a new era for weather and climate predictions."

From GRL abstract.

Successfully modeling 2 TCs from a few weeks before formation, through cyclogenesis, and then the full evolution of the systems. Cool.

Now if we could take this methodology and come up with an operational TC model capable and skilled at cyclogenesis through landfall (and beyond) with a 3 week lead time. Ah, the possibilities...
agree with jimcripwell @11:32. However, I think I would go further and suggest that aj1983 may have allowed his political leanings to affect his scientific objectivity, assuming his credentials are as stated.

I am a professional geophysicist with a strong background in mathematics and paleoclimatology. I, too, have studied the subject of AGW, because I refuse to accept anyone's statements concerning AGW (pro or con) without deriving/verifying the science and looking at the raw data myself. I think we all can agree that arguments on both sides of the debate (which is NOT over, BTW), often rely upon assumptions that have not been completely validated. I have also seen numerous logical and mathematical errors committed on both sides. Hopefully, this very interesting solar cycle we are about to enter into will help to shed light on the subject, and help resolve some of the issues that are still in doubt.

For the benefit of aj1983, I will point out only two (of many) problems with the theory of GHG-driven GW:

(1). aj1983 states,

"Also there is a strong correlation between CO2 and the earth's temperature over the last million years. CO2 and temperatures are coupled, which means if you increase temperature you will increase CO2, but if you increase CO2 this will also increase temperature".

Partially true. Using oxygen isotope ratios as a proxy for temperature and entrained atmospheric samples from deep ice cores, we have learned that CO2 tracks temperature with an average lag of about 800 years, likely due to the thermal inertia of the oceans. It is NOT true that an increase in CO2 will increase average temperature. If aj1983's statement were correct, the earth would eventually broil as a result of runaway heating due to positive feedback: CO2 increases temperature, which increases CO2, which increases temperature, which... !

The proof that CO2 does not significantly control temperature can be seen at the CO2 and temperature peaks and troughs within the ice core data we are all familiar with (even Al Gore showed the data in his fantasy film). At each peak in temperature (interglacial periods), CO2 continues to increase, probably from oceanic out-gassing, but atmospheric temperature turns down, ignoring the fictitious "CO2 forcing" signal that is the fantasy of the pro-AGW crowd. At the troughs, CO2 concentration continues to decrease for about 800 years after the temperature trend reverses and begins to climb. Where is the influence of CO2 concentration upon temperature? Temperature clearly leads CO2; there is NO evidence (no data) that it can ever be the other way around.

(2). CO2 is capable of absorbing infrared photons in only three narrow spectral wavelength bands, centered at 2.7, 4.3, and 15 microns, because of the limited number of asymmetric vibrational modes possible in the CO2 molecule. Even with spectral line broadening due to atmospheric pressure, these three wavelength bands comprise a very tiny portion of the black body radiation emitted by the earth. Therefore, very little of the infrared energy may be retarded by CO2 along it's journey back into space.

In addition, water vapor has significant effects at two of the CO2 absorption lines. It is well-known and acknowledged by all, that water vapor is a much stronger GHG than CO2. Water vapor fully absorbs the 2.7 micron wavelengths, leaving nothing for CO2 to accomplish at that frequency. Water vapor also exhibits a significant effect at the 15 micron wavelength. At 4.3 microns, however, water vapor is transparent, leaving CO2 all alone to do it's thing. How can the pro-AGW contingent expect us to believe that increased atmospheric CO2 will produce massive climatic effects, when it is only capable of retarding the radiation of a single narrow bandwidth centered at 4.3 microns, and a portion of another (15 microns) out of the earth's entire black body radiation bandwidth?

The above represent only two of the many arguments against CO2 as a forcing agent for the global climate. There are many others, such as the saturation argument (wavelengths at which CO2 is active are already fully absorbed, so additional CO2 will have negligible affect).

I believe that the present global warming hysteria is primarily a symptom of a serious lack of science education globally. Many otherwise intelligent people have bought the snake oil, trusting the promoters of AGW and assuming they have solid science on their side, without analyzing the data for themselves. Some of the key AGW promoters (those with technical backgrounds who should know better) actually seem to be selling a political agenda. If more of the public were capable of their own technical analysis of the issue, we wouldn't be having this discussion.
433 cs
I forced myself to watch Mr Gore's feel good special.
One part in particular where he held up a "paper" that "proved" that there were "no" scientists that disagreed with his pay-per-view rants that were viewed in 4'000 seperate lectures according to him. If he'll lie about that, what else will he lie about? How much CO2 would you pump into the atmosphere flying his jet to 4,000 lectures all over the world? That sounds like a certain basketball player's claim to having 10,000 women.
And this type of dishonesty brings you a nobel? Academy Award ?
Your points are well received and pigeon holed.
thanx
Quoting Cotillion:



Yeah. Ignore it. That's what I do.

It's bliss as the well worn cliche explicitly states. Still yet to find any evidence which draws me into the debate on either side...

Take the common side approach of reducing emissions and increasing recycling, and you win either way. Job done. :)

So many debates aren't worth the pixels they're typed on...
Ah. Finally someone who understands my viewpoint.

U wouldn't happen to be from the UK, would u?

LOL

EDIT: I have since seen the social sciences / humanities background comment, and all is revealed.. . ..
Quoting theshepherd:
TWCRYO
Moonrocker
Interdisciplinary comparisons are welcome unless there is a dire weather situation exchange or someone starts overthehill candidate support.
Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Basically the doc says, "knock urself out w/ the GW debate, willya?" This is really about the only time of year (and maybe a couple weeks in Jan) when a discussion of this length is likely to go on.

I'm glad to see some decent discussion for a change, since that's what keeps us all informed, regardless of position / viewpoint.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Repost from a couple of days ago because it is soooo pertinent to what we usually do in this blog:


Woah, now this is interesting...

"The life cycles of two real tropical cyclones successfully predicted with a global model that resolves cloud systems

Atmospheric models that resolve clouds have greatly contributed to understanding local and regional climate; excessive computational needs have in the past allowed these models to be run only over limited areas. The increasing capability of high-end computers now allows numerical simulations with horizontal resolutions high enough to resolve cloud systems in a global model. Fudeyasu et al. (2008) analyzed initial results from the global Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), developed by Japanese scientists. In their study, NICAM simulation successfully reproduced the life cycles of two real tropical cyclones that formed in the Indian Ocean in 2006s austral summer. Initialized with atmospheric conditions that were present a few weeks before the cyclones formed, the model captured the timing of formation, motions, and overall evolution of the observed cyclones. The successful simulation is attributed to the realistic representation of the large-scale circulation and the embedded convective vortices. Thus, NICAM provides high temporal and spatial resolution data sets for detailed studies of tropical cyclone genesis and evolution, potentially ushering in a new era for weather and climate predictions."

From GRL abstract.

Successfully modeling 2 TCs from a few weeks before formation, through cyclogenesis, and then the full evolution of the systems. Cool.

Now if we could take this methodology and come up with an operational TC model capable and skilled at cyclogenesis through landfall (and beyond) with a 3 week lead time. Ah, the possibilities...
Hmmm. Full piece is not available, only the abstract, right?

Looks like a very interesting read. Makes me wish I had some "in" on a JMA-based weather blog. However, poor Japanese might hold me back.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Repost from a couple of days ago because it is soooo pertinent to what we usually do in this blog:


Woah, now this is interesting...

"The life cycles of two real tropical cyclones successfully predicted with a global model that resolves cloud systems

Atmospheric models that resolve clouds have greatly contributed to understanding local and regional climate; excessive computational needs have in the past allowed these models to be run only over limited areas. The increasing capability of high-end computers now allows numerical simulations with horizontal resolutions high enough to resolve cloud systems in a global model. Fudeyasu et al. (2008) analyzed initial results from the global Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), developed by Japanese scientists. In their study, NICAM simulation successfully reproduced the life cycles of two real tropical cyclones that formed in the Indian Ocean in 2006s austral summer. Initialized with atmospheric conditions that were present a few weeks before the cyclones formed, the model captured the timing of formation, motions, and overall evolution of the observed cyclones. The successful simulation is attributed to the realistic representation of the large-scale circulation and the embedded convective vortices. Thus, NICAM provides high temporal and spatial resolution data sets for detailed studies of tropical cyclone genesis and evolution, potentially ushering in a new era for weather and climate predictions."

From GRL abstract.

Successfully modeling 2 TCs from a few weeks before formation, through cyclogenesis, and then the full evolution of the systems. Cool.

Now if we could take this methodology and come up with an operational TC model capable and skilled at cyclogenesis through landfall (and beyond) with a 3 week lead time. Ah, the possibilities...


Wow. Nice find. Thanks.
Good Morning Billy. Still a decent low level circulation despite being overland for so long. Should intensify, as predicted by the global models, as it moves over water.
Quoting Drakoen:


Wow. Nice find. Thanks.
I'd be very interested to hear what ATL basin mets have to say about this.
I have a question for everyone... I am disappointed by the lack of data for the tropical depressions before 1991. Fortunately, I have found a source for the tropical depressions in 1967-1980 and 1988-1990. I have two questions: 1) Where is data for the tropical depressions in that period in which i cannot find any, for they did exist. The NHC does not have information on these storms prior to 1991, so they are of no help. If anyone could direct me to a site with this information, it would be greatly appreciated. 2) In the year of 1988, I have found a tropical depression that is separated into two sections (it regenerated). One is near Africa, the other off the east coast. My question is this: Do I connect them, as I did with Hurricane Ivan, or do I have two separate sections, with different references? Any help will be appreciated.
To help with the last post, here is a link to a picture of the track for that tropical depression.
Link

About this track, my feeling is to connect them together, and when it was a tropical disturbance mark it as a tropical depression.
Latest Billy.

Is billy going to make a second landfall?
Tropical Cyclone Advice #35
=====================================

At 9:00 am WDT, Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category One [992 hPa] located at 15.6S 124.3E or 26 kms west southwest of Kuri Bay and 345 kms northeast of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

TC Billy has re-formed near the northwest Kimberley coast and is moving west southwest off the Kimberley coast near Kuri Bay. GALES are expected to develop between Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque today. DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are possible about the far northern part of the Dampier Peninsula near Cape Leveque for a period overnight. GALES may extend down the coast to Broome early on Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watches
===============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Mitchell Plateau to Bidyadanga.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Port Hedland.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
===================================
12 HRS: 15.8S 123.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.1S 122.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 16.9S 120.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 17.3S 118.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4)

Remarks:
Latest satellite imagery shows Ex-TC Billy moving WSW near the northwest Kimberley coast.

Latest imagery shows good convection wrapping around the centre with DT 3.5 based on wrap of 0.8. CI constrained to 3.0.

The environment remains favourable for further intensification despite the proximity of land.

The WSW motion is expected to continue with a mid-level ridge to the south. In the longer term a low currently in the Gulf of Carpentaria may have inhibit the development
of a peripheral ridge making a more southerly motion less likely.
all4hurricane

Port Hedland may need to watch it it starts its south decend when it suppose to be Australian scale Category Four Cyclone
Whats the Australian rating scale because
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
all4hurricane

Port Hedland may need to watch it it starts its south decend when it suppose to be Australian scale Category Four Cyclone
What is the cyclone rating in Australia?
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'd be very interested to hear what ATL basin mets have to say about this.


Yea. I would be too, especially from what the veteran mets at the NHC have to say.
Australian scale

30 knots - Tropical Low
35-50 knots - Category 1
50-65 knots - Category 2
65-85 knots - Category 3
85-105 knots - Category 4
105 or greater - Category 5
I did a brief check and their cat five is like our cat 3 and cat 2 is actually saying TS
all4hurricanes

SS Cat 1 = Australia Category 3
SS Cat 2 = Australia Category 3
SS Cat 3 = Australia Category 4
SS Cat 4 = Ausralia Category 4
SS Cat 5 = Australia Category 4 or 5

---
as far as I remember
POST 433 If more of the public were capable of their own technical analysis of the issue, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

So true... but our curriculum for science is so pathetic... my kids learned about weather from either the books I purchased or got from the library or through what they needed to know to surf, fish, kayak, dive or hurricanes --
Good night everyone
Quoting theshepherd:
cot
Maybe we need a new "text abrev" for the GW debate?
TWCRYO=Typed With Compassion Respect Your Opinion...LOL
Shep... you are soo funny !!
Evening Everyone -

Hope everyone has a wonderful xmas and happy hannakuh!
ok - so i'm an idiot (again) - trying to change my avatar but (again) can't figure it out. Help!
Good evening all...

Please check out my blog if you are an animal lover! Can't stay to chat tonight.

Hi Drak!
Damn.. I hate snow :(
at least 18" so far.. seems to be trying for 2 feet :(
Its ok you live you there you gotta like it......LOL
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
TROPICAL LOW (03U)
11:38 am ACST December 22 2008
=======================================

At 9:30 am Australia CST, a TROPICAL LOW [1002 hPa] is located at 14.6S 137.3E in the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria, or about 100 kilometres southeast of Groote Eylandt, moving west southwest at 5 kilometres per hour. The monsoon low is expected to continue to track towards the west or southwest, and move overland tonight.

Damaging wind gusts up to 100 km/h with thunderstorms are expected in the Arnhem and Roper-McArthur districts later today.

Large waves and abnormally high tides are expected along the coast between Port Roper and the Queensland border from this evening.

Heavy monsoonal rain currently falling over coastal areas of the Arnhem and Roper-McArthur districts is expected to cause flooding over low-lying areas today, and will begin to extend inland tonight.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving conditions may be hazardous - avoid flooded roads and watercourses. Abnormally high tides could cause minor flooding at the coast.

Orca i have been working on my Christmas song play list......im up to 33 songs playing 1 hour and 40 minutes....need help you got any ideas.....Christmas songs list Link
Quoting TampaSpin:
Orca i have been working on my Christmas song play list......im up to 33 songs playing 1 hour and 40 minutes....need help you got any ideas.....Christmas play list Link


Do you have Grandma got run over by a reindeer?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Do you have Grandma got run over by a reindeer?


good one....thanks.....MORE.......lol
Hey all... long time lurker, first time poster. I felt like I had to jump in on the climate change debate (which I'm sure will make me lots of new friends and not alienate me at all), but here's my question...

It seems like on there's a good deal of debate on this board in regards to climate change
(mostly whether or not it's human induced), is this representative of the meteorological community as a whole or confined to this message board?

If it is representative of the meteorological community as a whole then why is there so little published research contradicting the theory of AGW?

If it isn't then why is there such a debate on this board? (I'm assuming most of you are pretty involved in the meteorological community)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number THIRTY-SEVEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
3:45 PM WDT December 22 2008
=====================================

At 3:00 pm WDT, Tropical Cyclone Billy [991 hPa] located at 15.6S 124.1E or 46 km west southwest of Kuri Bay and 330 km northeast of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

TC Billy is currently located near the northwest Kimberley coast, moving slowly west and is forecast to move in a general west to southwesterly direction over the next few days. GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected between Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque. DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are possible about the far northern part of the Dampier Peninsula near Cape Leveque for a period overnight. GALES may extend down the coast to Broome during Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Mitchell Plateau to Bidyadanga.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Port Hedland.

Tropical Cyclone Techinical Bulletins
=====================================
12 HRS: 15.8S 123.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.4S 122.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.0S 119.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 16.8S 117.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Remarks:
Satellite imagery over the last 6 hours has shown a decrease in curvature and coldness of the cloud top temperatures.

DT/CI is assigned 3.0.

The system has slowed over the last 6 hours and remains in close proximity to land. The model guidance indicates the cyclone should remain north of the mid-level ridge and be steered in a generally westerly direction. In the 24 to 48 hour time frame the system should intensify as it moves away from the coast.
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
TROPICAL LOW (03U)
5:00 PM ACST December 22 2008
=======================================

At 3:30 pm CST, a Tropical Low [1000 hPa] located in the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria at 14.8S 136.5E, or about 85 kilometres south of Groote Eylandt, moving west at 6 kilometres per hour. The monsoon low is expected to continue to track towards the west or southwest, and move over land tonight.

Damaging wind gusts up to 100 km/h with thunderstorms are expected in the Arnhem and Roper-McArthur districts tonight and tomorrow. Large waves and abnormally high tides are expected along the coast between Port Roper and the Queensland border tonight and tomorrow. Heavy monsoonal rain currently falling over coastal areas of the Arnhem and Roper-McArthur districts is expected to cause flooding over low-lying areas tonight. Heavy rain is expected to continue and extend inland tomorrow, leading to localised flooding and significant stream rises.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving conditions may be hazardous - avoid flooded roads and watercourses. Abnormally high tides could cause minor flooding at the coast.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number THIRTY-EIGHT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
6:35 PM WDT December 22 2008
=====================================

At 6:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category One [989 hPa] located at 15.9S 123.9E or 80 kms southwest of Kuri Bay and 290 kms northeast of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-southwest at 5 knots.

TC Billy is currently located near the northwest Kimberley coast and is moving steadily west southwest. GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected between Mitchell Plateau and Beagle Bay overnight. DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are possible about the northern part of the Dampier Peninsula near Cape Leveque for a period overnight. GALES may extend down the coast to Broome during Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Mitchell Plateau to Bidyadanga.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Whim Creek.
Morning Hades - in for a quick peek b/4 work and wondering what Billy did while I was sleeping...
OK -- I found it "moving away from coast" -- Good to see you Hades and as always thanks for your work in the other areas of the the world -- I always look to you - for those Philippine updates
Morning everybody. I see things are picking up over Oz. Hopefully the new low will not have enough time to do more than be a low.
471. ayi
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I did a brief check and their cat five is like our cat 3 and cat 2 is actually saying TS

Some time ago I set up a table to convert between metric and imperial and also between Saffir-Simpson and Australian scales. This is an extract:

Saffir-Simpson (SS) - Australian (Au)
63 kph Tropical Storm (SS) - Tropical Low (Au)
90 kph Tropical Storm (SS) - Category 1 (Au)
119 kph Category 1 (SS) - Category 1 (Au)
125 kph Category 1 (SS) - Category 2 (Au)
154 kph Category 2 (SS) - Category 2 (Au)
171 kph Category 2 (SS) - Category 3 (Au)
176 kph Category 3 (SS) - Category 3 (Au)
211 kph category 4 (SS) - Category 3 (Au)
226 kph Category 4 (SS) - Category 4 (Au)
251 kph Category 5 (SS) - Category 4 (Au)
281 kph Category 5 (SS) - Category 5 (Au)

However, it's still not that straight forward due to SS using 1 minute sustained winds and Au using 10 minutes. This inflates the SS wind values. From the Australian Bureau of Meteorology:

NOTE: USA agencies, who have responsibility for issuing tropical cyclone warnings in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific tropical cyclone basins, use a 1 minute averaging time for sustained winds. While one can utilize a simple ratio to convert from peak 10 min. wind to peak 1 min. wind (roughly 12% higher for the latter), such systematic differences tend to make inter-basin comparison of tropical cyclones around the world problematic.
Quoting ayi:

Some time ago I set up a table to convert between metric and imperial and also between Saffir-Simpson and Australian scales. This is an extract:

Saffir-Simpson (SS) - Australian (Au)
63 kph Tropical Storm (SS) - Tropical Low (Au)
90 kph Tropical Storm (SS) - Category 1 (Au)
119 kph Category 1 (SS) - Category 1 (Au)
125 kph Category 1 (SS) - Category 2 (Au)
154 kph Category 2 (SS) - Category 2 (Au)
171 kph Category 2 (SS) - Category 3 (Au)
176 kph Category 3 (SS) - Category 3 (Au)
211 kph category 4 (SS) - Category 3 (Au)
226 kph Category 4 (SS) - Category 4 (Au)
251 kph Category 5 (SS) - Category 4 (Au)
281 kph Category 5 (SS) - Category 5 (Au)

However, it's still not that straight forward due to SS using 1 minute sustained winds and Au using 10 minutes. This inflates the SS wind values. From the Australian Bureau of Meteorology:

NOTE: USA agencies, who have responsibility for issuing tropical cyclone warnings in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific tropical cyclone basins, use a 1 minute averaging time for sustained winds. While one can utilize a simple ratio to convert from peak 10 min. wind to peak 1 min. wind (roughly 12% higher for the latter), such systematic differences tend to make inter-basin comparison of tropical cyclones around the world problematic.
Something I've wanted to ask, but never have remembered before now is, why is the ATL/EPAC the only area of responsibility that uses 1-min averages?
Morning everyone.......I will be finishing up my shopping today so please stay out of my way......LMAO
Good morning!
Find a way to be thankful this morning if you live where your weather is moderate.
Wow....some rough weather conditions for many people this morning:




Bitter cold, high winds chill Midwest



CHICAGO (AP) - Heavily bundled Midwesterners were shuffling quickly from place to place in a bid to spend as little time as possible outside in bone-chilling, subzero cold that was expected to last through Monday morning.

"It's so cold, it feels like needles are pricking my eyes," grumbled 19-year-old Ashley Sarpong of Chicago, a fur-lined hood pulled around her face Sunday as she crossed a wind-swept bridge that crossed the Chicago River. "This is the coldest I've felt all year."

The big freeze was expected to last through Monday morning, the first full day of the official winter season, when wind chill advisories for the region were to expire.

Snowfall was scant after the frigid air mass rolled in, but ice and high winds whipped up snow along roadways and made driving hazardous for holiday travelers.

But the worst danger was from the cold - exacerbated by 20-to-30 mph winds that drove wind chills to 25 degrees below zero, or even lower, according to the National Weather Service.

Monday morning commuters in Dayton, Ohio, were greeted with zero-degree temperatures, the National Weather Service reported. It was in the single digits in Toledo, Cincinnati and Columbus.

Social service workers in Chicago conducted well-being checks and hosted more than 100 people in an overnight warming center, while officials activated an automatic phone message system that called residents to warn them of the cold.

At kickoff in Cleveland for the Browns-Bengals football game Sunday, the temperature was 18 degrees with winds up to 40 mph. Temperatures dipped to minus-6 degrees in two Iowa cities, with wind gusts of 40 mph that made it feel like 35 below zero in areas.

The gusty winds and cold also added to power-outage headaches, with more than 7,100 Ameren customers without power Sunday night, mostly in the Peoria area. In northwest Ohio, about 5,000 homes were without power.

In western New York, a 134-mile stretch of the state Thruway between Buffalo and the Pennsylvania border reopened around 8 a.m. Monday after being closed for about six hours because of blowing snow.

Indiana State Police said weather was a factor Sunday night when a car spun out of control on an icy toll road near New Carlisle, crossed the median and was struck by a semitrailer. All four people in the car were killed.

In southwestern Michigan, about 30 vehicles were involved in a deadly series of pileups on a six-mile stretch of Interstate 94 north of Stevensville, about 175 miles west of Detroit. An Illinois doctor died when his car slammed into a semi-truck that had stopped on the highway in whiteout conditions.

Flights were canceled and delayed at airports on both coasts. Hundreds of travelers were stranded at airports in Phoenix; SeaTac, Wash.; and Arlington, Va.

"There was a lot of people sleeping on the floor, it was a hard cold floor, and the doors kept opening," Rebecca Gray, 30, of South Berwick, Maine, said Monday morning from Reagan National Airport, where she spent the night with about 250 other people including her 3-year-old daughter and 5-year-old son. "There were babies last night sleeping out there. Women and children shouldn't have been left like that while people said it's not our problem and went home.'"

The winter blast continued to be felt in the Pacific Northwest. In Seattle, the National Weather Service was predicting up to 4 inches more by the Monday morning commute - a lot in a city with few plows and hilly streets.

The heavy snow was believed to have caused the collapse of a large tent over a temporary ice-skating rink in Bellevue, Wash., briefly trapping some of the 10 people inside and slightly injuring one girl. Snow was also suspected in the collapse of an unoccupied building housing a storage business in rural Waitsburg in eastern Washington.

Arizona's third storm in a week was expected to roll in Monday afternoon, bringing up to 10 inches of snow to higher elevations and rain in Phoenix.

Authorities in Boston, no stranger to chilly weather, canceled public schools Monday and Tuesday in the face of an overnight freeze and wind gusts of up to 50 mph.

In North Dakota, the National Weather Service said Bismarck was on track to break a 1916 record for snowfall in December. The city has had 19 inches of snow so far this month, and with 4 more expected Monday night, the record of 21.7 inches could be shattered.

In the past 2 weeks I have had my second ice/snow event in Houston, TX.
Just had sleet/fz rain.

A Look back at tropical storm Fay

Good morning all. Back from one month on my favorite form of transport - a cruise ship over the deep ocean. Passed just north of the Cape Verde islands and wished very much I could have kayaked over for a quick visit. Calm seas and NO tropical weather the whole time. It was a fiftieth anniversary event so knew the seas would be kind. It's good to see the familiar folks are still on line. Stopped in Tortola on the way back before getting off at San Juan. I do love Tortola and the whole area for it's warm water, gorgeous mountains and friendly people. Anyway, hope you all kept the tropics under total control while I was away. BTW I live in sunny Arizona and there was ice on my car. What was That about?
I just completed my Weather Update on my blog and also Completed the musical Play list for everyone to play on Christmas Eve. I hope some might find it enjoyable......

Merry Christmas Everyone......

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
479. HTV
Quoting txag91met:
In the past 2 weeks I have had my second ice/snow event in Houston, TX.
Just had sleet/fz rain.



We got a little of that here on Lake Houston too, but we are at 32.7 degrees.
Good brunch...
Quoting hurristat:
I have a question for everyone... I am disappointed by the lack of data for the tropical depressions before 1991. Fortunately, I have found a source for the tropical depressions in 1967-1980 and 1988-1990. I have two questions: 1) Where is data for the tropical depressions in that period in which i cannot find any, for they did exist. The NHC does not have information on these storms prior to 1991, so they are of no help. If anyone could direct me to a site with this information, it would be greatly appreciated. 2) In the year of 1988, I have found a tropical depression that is separated into two sections (it regenerated). One is near Africa, the other off the east coast. My question is this: Do I connect them, as I did with Hurricane Ivan, or do I have two separate sections, with different references? Any help will be appreciated.


The archive directory in the ATCF database has a lot of information. One subdirectory, non-developing-depressions-1967-1987-atl.txt may contain the data you are looking for.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The archive directory in the ATCF database has a lot of information. One subdirectory, non-developing-depressions-1967-1987-atl.txt may contain the data you are looking for.


I WANT TO GIVE YOU A HUG!!! I HAVE SPENT A LONG TIME LOOKING FOR SOMETHING LIKE THIS!!!
THANK YOU!!

Okay, now that I'm done with that, how do I read the data?? I don't know how to decipher this data... if someone could help it would be greatly appreciated!!!
11440 9/ 7*286 780 25 0*298 785 30 0*310 787 30 0*323 786 30 0*

this is what it looks like

Wait, does it mean that it is at 28.6N 78.0W with 25 kts?? And then 29.8N 78.5W with 30 kts?? thank you!!!

Blog hole

Do you know where to find tropical depression data for the Eastern Pacific in the same time period??
In Orlando the dew point over my house is 28 degrees(because of a wind shift) up from the single digits during this afternoons daily mixing. My how much a difference a wind shift makes!