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Genesis of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: Which Model Should You Trust?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:29 PM GMT on August 29, 2013

It's been a remarkably quiet late August in the Atlantic for hurricanes, with nary an "Invest", and precious few yellow 10% probability circles on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook. When will this remarkable hurricane drought come to an end? The computer models we use to track hurricanes have conflicting ideas about this. Which model should we believe, and how far into the future can these models successfully predict genesis events of new tropical depressions in the Atlantic? Some answers come in a 2013 paper by a group of scientists led by Florida State's Daniel Halperin, just accepted for publication in the journal Weather and Forecasting, "An evaluation of tropical cyclone genesis forecasts from global numerical models." It turns out that two of the three most reliable models for predicting the genesis of tropical cyclones up to four days in advance are also the our top-performing models for predicting hurricane tracks: the American GFS model and the European ECMWF model. The UKMET model is also quite good at predicting tropical cyclone genesis events. The Canadian GEM model and the Navy NOGAPS model (now succeeded by the Navy NAVGEM model) do less well. When two or more models make the same genesis forecast, the odds of the event actually occurring are increased considerably. The models have improved greatly in making genesis forecasts in recent years; back in 2007, when our top three models made a 4-day genesis forecast, these verified only 17 - 28% of the time. By 2011, the hit rate had increased to 45 - 50%. However, the models still miss most genesis events. In 2011, the probability of detection of a tropical cyclone genesis event was only 8% - 23%, meaning that 77 - 92% of time, a tropical depression or tropical storm formed without the model predicting that it would form. The best model to use for looking at Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis in 2011 was the UKMET model, which combined a relatively high probability of detection rate with a low false alarm rate.


Figure 1. The probability of making a correct tropical cyclone genesis forecast for all forecast hours (06 to 96) by model, for the period 2004 - 2011. In 2011, three models--the GFS, UKMET, and European--made genesis forecasts that were correct 45 - 50% of the time. The Canadian GEM model and the Navy NOGAPS model did less well. Data taken from Halperin et al., 2013, "An evaluation of tropical cyclone genesis forecasts from global numerical models." Weather and Forecasting, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00008.1

The paper looked at 135 Atlantic genesis events over the period 2004 - 2011, as predicted by five global computer weather forecast models: the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, NOGAPS, and Canadian GEM. The regional GFDL and HWRF hurricane models were not considered, as they use output from the GFS model to drive them, and are not good at making genesis forecasts. The study only looked at forecasts made up to four days in advance. While there have been cases where I've seen genesis predictions made 7 - 10 days in advance come true, these are rare, and the "hit" rate of successful genesis forecasts even four days in advance is low. In the paper, a "hit" was defined as a forecast that successfully predicted genesis within 24 hours and 345 miles of the observed time and location. A "false alarm" occurred when the model predicted a storm that never developed. The other categories considered were "late genesis" events where a storm formed more than 24 hours before it was predicted to, and "early genesis", where a storm formed more than 24 hours after it was predicted to. Here are some details on each model's ability to make Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis forecasts:

European ECMWF model: The model is reluctant to predict genesis, and misses many genesis events (it had only an 8% probability of detection in 2011.) However, when it does predict genesis, it usually happens, with only a 16% false alarm percentage in 2011. The European model exhibits preferred regions of genesis, with over 60% of its genesis forecasts occurring in the MDR: 10-20°N, 60-20°W. Although the ECMWF misses many tropical cyclone genesis events in the Gulf of Mexico (as do the other models), when it does forecast genesis there, it almost always occurs. The model was highly prone to making late genesis forecasts.

American GFS model: The GFS model improved substantially in its genesis forecasts beginning in 2010, most likely due to a major model upgrade in 2010. The GFS is more aggressive at predicting genesis than the European model, and is less likely to miss a genesis event (22% probability of detection in 2011.) However, the incidence of false alarms was 32% in 2011, double what the European model had. Like the European model, the GFS exhibits preferred regions of genesis, with nearly 60% of its genesis forecasts occurring in the MDR: 10-20°N, 60-20°W.

UKMET model: The UKMET is more aggressive at predicting genesis than the European model, and is less likely to miss a genesis event (20% probability of detection in 2011.) The incidence of false alarms was 18% in 2011, similar to what the European model had. Like the European and GFS models, the UKMET exhibits preferred regions of genesis, with more than 67% of its genesis forecasts occurring in the MDR: 10-20°N, 60-20°W. The model was prone to making late genesis forecasts.

Canadian GEM model: The Canadian model was the least likely to miss a formation event, with a 23% probability of detection in 2011. False alarms have been a major issue, though, and the Canadian model generated the second highest number of bogus genesis events of any of the five models evaluated (42% of all its genesis forecasts in 2011 were false alarms.) The Canadian model does not seem to have a preferred region of genesis—all types of genesis events occur across the entire basin. The model performs best over the main development region (MDR; 10-20°N, 60-20°W), Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico (GOM).

Navy NOGAPS model: This model was retired in 2012, but we may be able to assume that its successor, the NAVGEM model, will have some of the same characteristics. False Alarms have been a major issue, and the NOGAPS model generated the highest number of bogus genesis events of any of the five models evaluated (60% of all its genesis forecasts in 2011 were false alarms.) The model also had a low probability of detection, just 9%. NOGAPS model does not seem to have a preferred region of genesis—all types of genesis events occur across the entire basin. Despite the high levels of hurricane activity in 2004 and 2005, the NOGAPS model failed to successfully forecast any genesis events those years.

Sources of Model Data
You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on wunderground's wundermap with the model layer turned on.
Longer ten-day ECMWF forecasts are available from the ECMWF web site.
FSU's experimental hurricane forecast page (CMC, ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, HWRF, and NAVGEM models)
NOAA's HFIP model comparison page (GFS, ECMWF, FIM, FIM9, UKMET, and CMC models.)
Experimental HFIP models

Very Quiet in the Atlantic
A tropical wave that came off the coast of Africa on Sunday is midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance is moving westward at 15 mph, has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC left the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 20%, but increased the 2-day odds of formation to 10%. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the system, but there is an area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north and west that is interfering with development. With the exception of the NAVGEM model, there is little support from the models for developing the disturbance during the next five days. The wave could spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

A tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Friday and track over the Cape Verde Islands is also showing little support for development from the models. This wave is expected to take a northwesterly track, and would likely not be able to make the long trek across the Atlantic to threaten North America or the Caribbean Islands. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 20%.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has an excellent new post, "Atlantic Hurricane Season: The Saharan Air Layer and Vertical Wind Shear".

California's Rim Fire Now 6th Largest in State History, and is 30% Controlled
California's massive Rim Fire in Yosemite National Park continues to grow, but an army of over 4,000 firefighters are making headway against the blaze, and had attained 30% containment of the fire as of 9:20 am EDT on Thursday. According to Inciweb, fire has burned over 192,700 acres. This moves the fire into 6th place for largest fire in state history, according to statistics tabulated by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, "The Worst Wild Fires in U.S. History". The Rim Fire will have difficultly surpassing California's largest fire on record--the Cedar Fire in San Diego County of October 2003. That fire burned 273,246 acres (430 square miles). California has had its driest year-to-date period, so it is no surprise that the state is experiencing an unusually large fire this summer.


Video 1. Time-lapse photography shows various perspectives of the 2013 Rim Fire, as viewed from Yosemite National Park. The first part of this video is from the Crane Flat Helibase. The fire is currently burning in wilderness and is not immediately threatening visitors or employees. The second half of the video is from Glacier Point, showing Yosemite Valley, and how little the smoke from the fire has impacted the Valley.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 993. TampaSpin:


I like you Kori...but when you WISH destruction of ownership...then you really need to grow up and maybe start in the 1st grade allover. Its very easy for you and your buddies to wish destruction on others for YOUR OWN SELF-RIGHTEOUSNESS!!!!!!
I remember you.I don`t see why you critic people when you on chat told me one time I was a bad person and you don`t even know me.
Quoting 996. redwagon:


I dunno, I've watched you for years, and it's like you just went dark all of a sudden. From excited, happy and energetic, to negative over the last year or so.

But back to WX. 102o again today after xFernand, xIvo and that other blob's cloud cover dissipated and the High from Hell (which has been absent) took over TX.


I've just gotten to the point where I no longer care. I'm kind of just coming out and being upfront with who I am now. I don't hide behind the veil of anonymity anymore.
Quoting 996. redwagon:


I dunno, I've watched you for years, and it's like you just went dark all of a sudden. From excited, happy and energetic, to negative over the last year or so.

But back to WX. 102o again today after xFernand, xIvo and that other blob's cloud cover dissipated and the High from Hell (which has been absent) took over TX.


I mean, you can't watch cyclones without watching the people also watching here. And what track THEY take.
Quoting 1001. allancalderini:
I remember you.I don`t see why you critic people when you on chat told me one time I was a bad person and you don`t even know me.


I know you, and you're not a bad person.
Quoting 1004. KoritheMan:


I know you, and you're not a bad person.
Thanks,I am not sure why some people make an opinion on someone without even knowing them or ever speaking with them,It makes me angry and sad that there is still people like that.
Quoting 1002. KoritheMan:


I've just gotten to the point where I no longer care. I'm kind of just coming out and being upfront with who I am now. I don't hide behind the veil of anonymity anymore.


So glad you could come out to the blog. <3 <3 <3
Quoting 1002. KoritheMan:


I've just gotten to the point where I no longer care. I'm kind of just coming out and being upfront with who I am now. I don't hide behind the veil of anonymity anymore.


Terrible Twenties :)

Seriously, reach out to us when you're in the dark. You just happened to be born in a difficult time... it's not permanent. They forgot, it's not just death and taxes, it's death, taxes and WEATHER that's permanent.
1008. K8eCane
in
som
nia
Quoting 1002. KoritheMan:


I've just gotten to the point where I no longer care. I'm kind of just coming out and being upfront with who I am now. I don't hide behind the veil of anonymity anymore.


For me, the blog is a mixture of a faux Astro and my real self. Most of the time I act like I normally would in real life, but every once in a while I get presented with an opportunity to show my true colors. And I almost never get that opportunity in life, if I do, usually things don't go as well, or I get misunderstood.
Btw have a good night everyone.
Good night everyone. I didn't intend on making it out to seem like properties being destroyed while having to be rebuilt would be a heart warming thing at all. In fact, I've seen damage pictures from Hurricanes Andrew, Charley, Katrina, Ike, and Sandy just to name off some of the most recent and notable ones in memory and I was left in utter shock and disbelief. I need to be more respectful to those who lost something valuable to them most importantly if someone they knew got killed in the storm. Maybe instead of arguing over who wants to see storms and who doesn't we should be looking at ways to improve the structures of our houses to withstand these storms. Noticed what happened after Andrew new building codes were imposed in the Greater Miami area. We need to take a page from our friends in the Caribbean and make our infrastructure like them.
Quoting 1008. K8eCane:
in
som
nia


Kate -did you happen to see Pat's youtube video? Perfect way to spend some time while suffering from insomnia...

Post 855 if you missed it :)
Quoting 1009. Astrometeor:


For me, the blog is a mixture of a faux Astro and my real self. Most of the time I act like I normally would in real life, but every once in a while I get presented with an opportunity to show my true colors. And I almost never get that opportunity in life, if I do, usually things don't go as well, or I get misunderstood.


I know some people portray different personas depending on the medium [the internet and real life]. I don't see that need. I don't believe in facades. You either take me as I am or piss off. :P

(Not you, you. Just a general you.)
I found since 1996 that if a hurricane wont come to me. I will go to the hurricane. Its the same thing with snow. In Charleston SC snow happens very rarely to get my fix I chase snow storms mainly in NC,VA,WV mountains. I find myself also rooting for tropical weather to affect Charleston do I want another Hugo? No but a cat 2 sure if not I will hop in my car NC and FL are just a few hours away.
1015. K8eCane
Quoting 1012. LAbonbon:


Kate -did you happen to see Pat's youtube video? Perfect way to spend some time while suffering from insomnia...

Post 855 if you missed it :)



Yea that was adorable
I'm not afraid to show my true self at all either on blog. Sometimes I'll keep it to myself, but I'm willing to be open :)
Quoting 1005. allancalderini:
Thanks,I am not sure why some people make an opinion on someone without even knowing them or ever speaking with them,It makes me angry and sad that there is still people like that.


First Impressions?

For example, when I first came here and I read TA's posts, I thought he was a smart, 50-something guy with a strong passion for weather. Boy, was I wrong on most of that.

Can't completely change human nature, we had a discussion about that after reading MLK's Why We Can't Wait in school a couple of weeks ago.
Quoting 1015. K8eCane:



Yea that was adorable


Of course, then I had to watch several others while I was on YT.
Quoting 1007. redwagon:


Terrible Twenties :)

Seriously, reach out to us when you're in the dark. You just happened to be born in a difficult time... it's not permanent. They forgot, it's not just death and taxes, it's death, taxes and WEATHER that's permanent.


I know I've been in the dark a few times and should have reached out to human sunshine around me, but didn't, it was probably not productive.
1020. K8eCane
Quoting 1018. LAbonbon:


Of course, then I had to watch several others while I was on YT.


are your ants acting up?
Quoting 1007. redwagon:


Terrible Twenties :)

Seriously, reach out to us when you're in the dark. You just happened to be born in a difficult time... it's not permanent. They forgot, it's not just death and taxes, it's death, taxes and WEATHER that's permanent.


I used to be reluctant to reach out to people, but I'm improving on that gradually.

I do ask people for help. That big situation I got myself into last year was one of those times where I came to the blog for help.

Everyone knows what I'm talking about, but I can't bring it up for community standards violation.

Made some good friends after that ordeal, though.
Quoting 1020. K8eCane:


are your ants acting up?


Not sure what you mean...are you talking about pre-storm ant activity???
1023. K8eCane
Quoting 1022. LAbonbon:


Not sure what you mean...are you talking about pre-storm ant activity???


yup :-P
Quoting 1001. allancalderini:
I remember you.I don`t see why you critic people when you on chat told me one time I was a bad person and you don`t even know me.



NEVER EVER once was in Chat with you...That is a fact....GOOD NITE
1025. K8eCane
someone said earlier they were acting up before katrina
Quoting 1023. K8eCane:


yup :-P


No clue. I don't go anywhere near the suckers unless I have poison in hand. And yours?
1027. K8eCane
Quoting 1026. LAbonbon:


No clue. I don't go anywhere near the suckers unless I have poison in hand. And yours?


i use grits on mine. uncooked grits
Quoting 1027. K8eCane:


i use grits on mine. uncooked grits


That's got to be the best use of grits I've ever heard. Not a fan - never acquired a liking for them
So, I came on to get updates, and read through quite a few posts. Stuff in the WPAC, lots of stuff in the EPAC, 2 circles in the ATL, ACE way low, rain over Cayman, fires still burning, hotter than Hades in the Midwest, big tornado in MN, Brian/Pat still posting cats, and blog spats continue... Did I miss anything? :P
1030. K8eCane
Quoting 1028. LAbonbon:


That's got to be the best use of grits I've ever heard. Not a fan - never acquired a liking for them


lol...the grits are fine enough that they sink down into the bed and into all the burrows
Quoting 1021. KoritheMan:


I used to be reluctant to reach out to people, but I'm improving on that gradually.

I do ask people for help. That big situation I got myself into last year was one of those times where I came to the blog for help.

Everyone knows what I'm talking about, but I can't bring it up for community standards violation.

Made some good friends after that ordeal, though.


I have a daughter your age... well, a couple years older, 22, and one thing I've been ~successful at instilling is *perspective*. I work in a killer grocery store in Austin, we have tons of people, and some of our customers are unlucky...damaged through genetics or accidents.

Perspective..... relatively, you are lucky and don't let the darks drag you down.
1032. K8eCane
Quoting 1029. LAbonbon:
So, I came on to get updates, and read through quite a few posts. Stuff in the WPAC, lots of stuff in the EPAC, 2 circles in the ATL, ACE way low, rain over Cayman, fires still burning, hotter than Hades in the Midwest, big tornado in MN, Brian/Pat still posting cats, and blog spats continue... Did I miss anything? :P


i might have it twisted. it was in this blog and i thought they said it was your ants that were doing unusual things pre katrina, but it might have been a similar user name
Quoting 1032. K8eCane:


i might have it twisted. it was in this blog and i thought they said it was your ants that were doing unusual things pre katrina, but it might have been a similar user name


Wasn't me, but I saw a post like that recently. That's how I figured out what I thought you were asking. Otherwise, it might have been an off-the-wall question. :)
1034. K8eCane
Quoting 1033. LAbonbon:


Wasn't me, but I saw a post like that recently. That's how I figured out what I thought you were asking. Otherwise, it might have been an off-the-wall question. :)


hey this time of night who knows? LOL if i go outside right now and look at my ants, they will probably look like they are talking to me
Quoting 1031. redwagon:


I have a daughter your age... well, a couple years older, 22, and one thing I've been ~successful at instilling is *perspective*. I work in a killer grocery store in Austin, we have tons of people, and some of our customers are unlucky...damaged through genetics or accidents.

Perspective..... relatively, you are lucky and don't let the darks drag you down.


I'm 22 as well, actually. Birthday is on April 11.
Quoting 1031. redwagon:


I have a daughter your age... well, a couple years older, 22, and one thing I've been ~successful at instilling is *perspective*. I work in a killer grocery store in Austin, we have tons of people, and some of our customers are unlucky...damaged through genetics or accidents.

Perspective..... relatively, you are lucky and don't let the darks drag you down.


killer...accidents.

Am I the only one that made this connection?
Quoting 1035. KoritheMan:


I'm 22 as well, actually. Birthday is on April 11.


Tricky time. Higher calling is poking you, beckoning you. But 22 year-old brains are notorious for ignoring knocks at the door! Just listen....you will hear.

High centered over Missouri forecasted to move West Sunday, alleviating this awful heat over TX and LA.


I think the cmc had a few too many beers tonight...
Quoting 1036. Astrometeor:


killer...accidents.

Am I the only one that made this connection?


Youth is wasted on the young. Yes, we kill our unlucky customers.



Systems are being pushed back from CONUS.
1040. K8eCane
Quoting 1036. Astrometeor:


killer...accidents.

Am I the only one that made this connection?


i saw it. but then again i watch too much ID TV...Lieutenant Joe Kenya Homicide Detective rocks
1041. K8eCane
night everybody. im going to play some solitaire
Nobody told me there was a tornado watch out earlier for some portions of the states. But then again, I didn't have the computer earlier.

Ants in Mississippi earning the 'fire' portion of their name. They are on the move after all the rain and must be young and full of...venom. First time I have really felt the fire part, usually its more annoyance than pain. Check your sourthern lawns if you have kids.
Quoting 1031. redwagon:


I have a daughter your age... well, a couple years older, 22, and one thing I've been ~successful at instilling is *perspective*. I work in a killer grocery store in Austin, we have tons of people, and some of our customers are unlucky...damaged through genetics or accidents.

Perspective..... relatively, you are lucky and don't let the darks drag you down.


Perspective? Hmmm....perspective...perspective. I heard that was a popular product a few decades ago but then kind of went out of favor. Sort of like the pet rock and all that.

Perspective is hard to come by in this country, what with most people wearing glasses covered in first world problems. But even if we could clean those glasses, perspective is just too expensive. I hear even on eBay you can't find perspective for anything less than 10 preconceived notions and a handful of biases. You used to be able to pick it up just for some self-righteous ideals, but unfortunately due to heavy inflation self-righteous ideals are a dime a dozen.

Besides, perspective has a number of side affects like awkwardness, nausea, depression, guilt, and shattering your perception of reality. Given all that, it's no wonder why perspective is so hard to find these days. It's amazing that it was ever popular to begin with.

Perspective is like the clamato juice of life. You know it's good for you, but you'd almost rather drink bleach.
Quoting 1043. southernstorm:
Ants in Mississippi earning the 'fire' portion of their name. They are on the move after all the rain and must be young and full of...venom. First time I have really felt the fire part, usually its more annoyance than pain. Check your sourthern lawns if you have kids.


I haven't seen fire ants here in Tennessee for a couple of years. Good thing too. I don't want to have to deal with those pests. Tell me that the ones down in Mississippi are heading any direction but north.
Quoting 1044. Xyrus2000:


Perspective? Hmmm....perspective...perspective. I heard that was a popular product a few decades ago but then kind of went out of favor. Sort of like the pet rock and all that.

Perspective is hard to come by in this country, what with most people wearing glasses covered in first world problems. But even if we could clean those glasses, perspective is just too expensive. I hear even on eBay you can't find perspective for anything less than 10 preconceived notions and a handful of biases. You used to be able to pick it up just for some self-righteous ideals, but unfortunately due to heavy inflation self-righteous ideals are a dime a dozen.

Besides, perspective has a number of side affects like awkwardness, nausea, depression, guilt, and shattering your perception of reality. Given all that, it's no wonder why perspective is so hard to find these days. It's amazing that it was ever popular to begin with.

Perspective is like the clamato juice of life. You know it's good for you, but you'd almost rather drink bleach.


Very nice prose... what I was trying to point out is that *compared to many people who come through our doors everyday*, you, me and everybody on this blog have No Problems. Be grateful for No Problems, first. Then ascend.
Well, good night then blog. Lol, almost 3 AM for me. I am only going to get 3 hours of sleep. Oh well. Hopefully I won't fall asleep in any of my classes tomorrow, Econ is probably going to be the challenge class to stay awake in.



I always like to take a peek at the GOES EAST pics, even if there's nothing really interesting to look at.
Good Morning Class!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
EXTREME WESTERN AFRICA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AS THE WAVE NEARS THAT AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY INCREASED...THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO A
REGION WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
Quoting 1038. TheGreatHodag:


I think the cmc had a few too many beers tonight...
no it not I saw the same thing last night with this model
The CMC strenghtens the wave currently located midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde Islands into a hurricane despite 60+ knots of wind shear.
Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Later on it even brings it to major hurricane status in an environment of 90 knots of shear.
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
1053. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..Coffee is Now Perked..hmmmm.....
1054. LargoFl
FLORIDA PAY ATTENTION TO THIS......THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
A VERY LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
INLAND AND OVER THE NATURE COAST. LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 4 INCHES OR MORE...RESULTING IN FLOODING AND PONDING
OF WATER. NEVER DRIVE A VEHICLE OVER A FLOODED ROADWAY.

1055. LargoFl
1056. LargoFl
folks down in the islands had better watch this one..goes to hurricane later on.....
1057. LargoFl
06z GFS initialization:

Morning all.

It looks like things are perking up slightly in the ATL... just in time for the weekend...

Meanwhile it looks like more rain is likely here in New Providence later today.














The wave train generator is cranking up again.
60 hours:

Quoting 1057. LargoFl:
not liking dat at all the high is to the north and east. east coast threat on dat run
1064. barbamz
Good morning from sunny Germany. Heads up once again in mid and western Mediterranean today:


Saved image. Source


Cloud top temperatures.

Alert level 2 from Estofex (European Storm Forecast Experiment).

Have a nice day everyone!




The "almost blob" didn't get sheared totally overnight.Another day to develop more convection.
1066. MahFL
So much shear......
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. TGIF! And that it's a three day weekend. Only thing that would make it perfect would be if it rained this weekend.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, egg white and veggie breakfast bowl, Baked eggs with tomato and feta, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, spinach, lean ham and cheese egg white omelet, whole wheat butternut waffles, Canadian bacon, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
Quoting 1067. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. TGIF! And that it's a three day weekend. Only thing that would make it perfect would be if it rained this weekend.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, egg white and veggie breakfast bowl, Baked eggs with tomato and feta, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, spinach, lean ham and cheese egg white omelet, whole wheat butternut waffles, Canadian bacon, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!


Those quesadilla's sound good! I'll have two, please!
I like this, the probability of getting a four day forecast right... less than a coin toss. Yet when it comes to climate change models for the next 100 years there is 98% certainty.
1070. barbamz
Nice to look at and fortunately not dangerous: "Hay devil" in the UK.



BBC, 30 August 2013 Last updated at 01:44 GMT
A man has captured a "vortex of hay" on video camera near his home in Hampshire.
Kevin Farndell saw the effects of the small whirlwind in fields by the village of Dummer.
The eyewitness, who was covered in falling debris from the "hay devil", called it "quite a sight".
Krista Mitchell at the BBC Weather Centre said: "The ground gets very hot and strong convection takes place.
"This rapidly rising air lifts dust, or straw, into the air. When conditions are right, the rising air will rotate."

Looks like it is drawing in some dry air and dust.
Quoting 1069. PureScience:
I like this, the probability of getting a four day forecast right... less than a coin toss. Yet when it comes to climate change models for the next 100 years there is 98% certainty.
See: Weather and Climate, differences between
Quoting 1059. BahaHurican:
Morning all.

It looks like things are perking up slightly in the ATL... just in time for the weekend...

Meanwhile it looks like more rain is likely here in New Providence later today.














Looks like another of last week's UUL developing and moving north again.
getting yellow
1076. IKE
96L is it on the latest 6Z GFS.....nothing affecting lower 48 through Sept. 15th.....

@ 144 hours....


1077. GatorWX
Good morning everyone!



oops!
1078. yoboi
Quoting 1072. Neapolitan:
See: Weather and Climate, differences between




It might be helpful if you read what you link.....what happened to all those major hurricanes that you said would occur???? what about the record ice melt that you said would occur this yr????? I will give you credit for being clever if you make 100 wild predictions and only 1 becomes right you can say see I told you so.......
Quoting 1067. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. TGIF! And that it's a three day weekend. Only thing that would make it perfect would be if it rained this weekend.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, egg white and veggie breakfast bowl, Baked eggs with tomato and feta, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, spinach, lean ham and cheese egg white omelet, whole wheat butternut waffles, Canadian bacon, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!


I'll have the cheese and Chorizo Quesadillas please. Apple Juice.

thank you
1080. Torito
Quoting 1078. yoboi:




It might be helpful if you read what you link.....what happened to all those major hurricanes that you said would occur???? what about the record ice melt that you said would occur this yr????? I will give you credit for being clever if you make 100 wild predictions and only 1 becomes right you can say see I told you so.......
Geez, yoboi. I would think a person would get tired of erecting one straw man after another, especially when they're so flimsy and thus so easily destroyed. I might have to start calling you Aunt Sally. ;-)
how bad iis our hobby this yr? zooming in on systems offshore maine?. no leftovers here its a sin to throw the food away.
1083. GatorWX
Those that make predictions at least show enough courage to do so, right or wrong. Pretty sure the reason why many here don't is it's a credibility thing per se. Still it's at least somewhat courageous in regards to credibility/being wrong.

-Josh
1085. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
SLOWED DOWN
AND IT IS STILL LOCATED OVER EXTREME WESTERN AFRICA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE LOW MOVES BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC.
THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND...60 PERCENT OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER THIS
SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...IT WILL LIKELY BRING
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD A REGION WHERE THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
1086. IKE
Yawn.....to the ATL. Will there be a hurricane in the region in 2013? Will not happen in August and may not for at least the first few days of September.

It peaks my curiosity just to see when and IF it will happen. Incredible to watch.
florida ull? john hope said they can spin spin and spin. if the ull moves slightly sw and something actually develops fl.could be in for it.
1088. GatorWX
Go to bed with the distant sound of thunder from storms offshore, wake up to the same. Love it. Now stay there, I want to go out to the beach or take the kayak out! No yard work or any work for me today. Shall be a day of leisure!!



74 F, 98% RH, 74 F DP (:P), 40% Chance of Precip. Kinda sticky for 0730, but it ain't hot yet. 91 F forecasted high.
1089. GatorWX
Quoting 1086. IKE:
Yawn.....to the ATL. Will there be a hurricane in the region in 2013? Will not happen in August and may not for at least the first few days of September.

It peaks my curiosity just to see when and IF it will happen. Incredible to watch.


Take a look at the xtrp model, I hear it goes out indefinitely.
1090. GatorWX
Now that the dry air is gone SHEAR comes into the game..-_-.This season is really incredible isn't it..
1092. beell
Based on some of the Global Hawk data, the central Atlantic wave is probably under about 30 knots of westerly shear. Possibly increasing for today.



1093. txjac
LOL ...wow, everyone has new avitars this morning!
Love it
1094. GatorWX
Quoting 1084. SFLWeatherman:



1095. MahFL
Could be a new coc trying to form.

1096. Kyon5


Stormy day today across most of FL. Flooding & lightning seem to be the main issues later today.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FLORIDA GEORGIA BORDER LATER TODAY...
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INCLUDING NORTHERN
LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES BY MID AFTERNOON WITH OTHER SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS FORMING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST WHICH WILL DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE SLOWLY INLAND WITH
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS
WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS
TO 45 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SLOW MOVING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY
RAIN MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.


1098. Kyon5
Shear is about 30 kts just north of the wave. We'll see what happens.



* This is a shear map, it just shows what the tendency has been like the past 24 hours. On the right corner, you can see the legend indicating the current wind shear.
1099. GatorWX
Quoting 1064. barbamz:
Good morning from sunny Germany. Heads up once again in mid and western Mediterranean today:


Saved image. Source


Cloud top temperatures.

Alert level 2 from Estofex (European Storm Forecast Experiment).

Have a nice day everyone!





I hope all that crazy weather in Europe lets up before mid-September! Not sure how bad it's been recently however.
Quoting 1079. CaneHunter031472:


I'll have the cheese and Chorizo Quesadillas please. Apple Juice.

thank you
I agree.. they love the crystal ball.. at this point if they could make hurricanes they would just to meet their quota
About 8-9 pm last night picked up 1.14" of unexpected rain at our house in Ft. Myers (just east of I75)
Quoting 1101. Sfloridacat5:
About 8-9 pm last night picked up 1.14" of unexpected rain at our house in Ft. Myers (just east of I75)


I'm east of I75 also. Got .73" and the radar wasn't showing any storms. Strange.
Quoting 1100. chipsf64:
I agree.. they love the crystal ball.. at this point if they could make hurricanes they would just to meet their quota
Quota? What quota? I've not heard of any quota. Who sets it? How many tropical cyclones are needed to fill it? Tell us, please; inquiring minds want to know!
Invest 96L over land really that's is a first. You guys are really getting desperate now .. Dag gone .. Actually only had 1 storm this year . C,D,E storms formed where there were no buoy's . You are naming clouds . If hurricane hunters flew into B,F storms that was a total waste of tax dollars . 4 C130 turbo prop engines get great fuel mileage..
BORING GFS, only weak fishes....
Quoting 1103. Neapolitan:
Quota? What quota? I've not heard of any quota. Who sets it? How many tropical cyclones are needed to fill it? Tell us, please; inquiring minds want to know!
NHPC 18-23 then they change it mid season . I am sorry if I happen to be taking my frustrations of the weather channel out on you but was very disappointed when then bought you. I have been a member since 2003 You are the best I love your interviews with Amy Goodman . Watch the weather channel and you will see my point
Quoting 1104. chipsf64:
Invest 96L over land really that's is a first. You guys are really getting desperate now .. Dag gone .. Actually only had 1 storm this year . C,D,E storms formed where there were no buoy's . You are naming clouds . If hurricane hunters flew into B,F storms that was a total waste of tax dollars . 4 C130 turbo prop engines get great fuel mileage..
Oh, you're one of those people. Got it. (Turns and quickly runs to opposite end of the room.)
1108. IKE

2m
Incredible lack of tropical
activity GLOBALLY probably due in at least part to drying mid/upper
levels, OPPOSITE OF IPCC AND EPA contentions..........
...................................... ...
Think I'll go mow my front yard. More spinning in that then what's in the ATL.Number of hurricanes in the ATL this season....0.Number of 70 mph TS's in the ATL this season....0.
From Miami NWS Disco

LONG TERM...

THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS
THAT IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST NEXT WEEK
AND POSSIBILITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
TREND CONDITIONS THEN THE POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED UP FOR NEXT OF
NEXT WEEK.
1110. SLU
Quoting 1086. IKE:
Yawn.....to the ATL. Will there be a hurricane in the region in 2013? Will not happen in August and may not for at least the first few days of September.

It peaks my curiosity just to see when and IF it will happen. Incredible to watch.


Forget a hurricane, we can't even get a half decent looking tropical wave to watch. Isn't the MJO already in phase 1? I'm totally flummoxed with 2013.

The moral of this tropical story this year is if someone tells you in June what the season is going to be like in September, believe them.
Quoting 1108. IKE:

2m
Incredible lack of tropical
activity GLOBALLY probably due in at least part to drying mid/upper
levels, OPPOSITE OF IPCC AND EPA contentions..........
Bastardi again, huh? Speaking of "one of those people"... ;-)
And next year there will be downcasting predictions, then it will be like 2004!
Good day all...

1115. GatorWX
Quoting 1101. Sfloridacat5:
About 8-9 pm last night picked up 1.14" of unexpected rain at our house in Ft. Myers (just east of I75)


I picked up close to 2/3" around 6:30pm. 9 days in a row over .5". We have to be close to 30-35", at least here, since late May, perhaps more. This is the wettest summer I ever remember, been here my whole life.
Very unusual.

THIS SEASON IS A YAWN!
Quoting 1115. GatorWX:


I picked up close to 2/3" around 6:30pm. 9 days in a row over .5". We have to be close to 30-35", at least here, since late May, perhaps more. This is the wettest summer I ever remember, been here my whole life.


Where is "here" ?
Quoting 1094. GatorWX:



This is most interesting to me. Has been stationary here for many days. When is shear due to lessen in this area? If shear lessened I think this might develop. It is very tenacious.
This season tells me that nature - and not models - is in control of this 'hurricane season'.
I just hope this nice weather pattern continues at least until Monday here on the Mississippi Alabama Gulf Coast.
Quoting 1116. StormTrackerScott:
Very unusual.



The satellite picture of the GOM looks like it's December.
Yeah I think after 3 active season in a row that this year may be more in line with what we had in 2009. Sorry folks that means many blog meltdown days ahead.
1124. GatorWX
Quoting 1101. Sfloridacat5:
About 8-9 pm last night picked up 1.14" of unexpected rain at our house in Ft. Myers (just east of I75)


Nice wave, btw. I was in NY State during that one. I remember Dennis, Ivan, Katrina and Rita well though. Neat when the surf goes off here, since it rarely does. It was funny seeing so many east coasters over here during those Gulf storms. Ivan had the best swell here in Englewood IMO. Swell rolled over the beach pilings, which was the only time I've seen that happen. It was a couple feet overhead here and very clean, but almost double overhead at North Jetty, Venice. Really nice clean swell.
1125. Grothar
Joe Bastardi's forecast for 2013

Link
1127. GatorWX
Quoting 1118. FtMyersgal:


Where is "here" ?


Englewood (Charlotte Countty side)
The MJO that couldn't really ever make into the Caribbean.

I know I'm just a novice. But I don't understand why so many categorize this season as a bust. Yes there have been no majors (yet). But there have been very interesting tropical systems to track and to learn from. Some, like Dorian the zombie storm, that wouldn't die, kept the blog guessing, and was at least to me pretty interesting. I think the activity and unusual flow off the East coast of US has also been interesting. Isn't this what meteorology is really about? We still have till Nov. and as I said, I think this season is a "late-bloomer, and we still will see some "real" action before all is said and done.
1130. K8eCane
nothing. nada. zilch
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

CORRECTED TO ADD...HIGH CHANCE...IN FIRST PARAGRAPH

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
SLOWED DOWN AND IT IS STILL LOCATED OVER EXTREME WESTERN AFRICA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE LOW MOVES BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
WHETHER THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...IT WILL
LIKELY BRING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.
1132. GatorWX
I see lots of wind shear out there
Quoting 1127. GatorWX:


Englewood (Charlotte Countty side)


Westside! I miss those days. Link
Where is the 3rd strongest MJO pulse since 1989?? 2013 is haunted, what's happening is so odd!!!!
1137. ncstorm
Quoting 1129. congaline:
I know I'm just a novice. But I don't understand why so many categorize this season as a bust. Yes there have been no majors (yet). But there have been very interesting tropical systems to track and to learn from. Some, like Dorian the zombie storm, that wouldn't die, kept the blog guessing, and was at least to me pretty interesting. I think the activity and unusual flow off the East coast of US has also been interesting. Isn't this what meteorology is really about? We still have till Nov. and as I said, I think this season is a "late-bloomer, and we still will see some "real" action before all is said and done.


I believe you and I are probably the only ones here who still believe the season isnt over..
1138. VR46L
Quoting 1091. washingtonian115:
Now that the dry air is gone SHEAR comes into the game..-_-.This season is really incredible isn't it..


Wash That is a beautiful avi !

Yep the season is incredible as in quiet


Good Morning Folks !
1139. GatorWX
Quoting 1129. congaline:
I know I'm just a novice. But I don't understand why so many categorize this season as a bust. Yes there have been no majors (yet). But there have been very interesting tropical systems to track and to learn from. Some, like Dorian the zombie storm, that wouldn't die, kept the blog guessing, and was at least to me pretty interesting. I think the activity and unusual flow off the East coast of US has also been interesting. Isn't this what meteorology is really about? We still have till Nov. and as I said, I think this season is a "late-bloomer, and we still will see some "real" action before all is said and done.


October is traditionally Southwest Florida's month. Just throwing that out there. I'm not predicting anything to happen, but climatologically speaking, that's the most vulnerable time for my area. You're from Ft Myers right?
Quoting 1129. congaline:
I know I'm just a novice. But I don't understand why so many categorize this season as a bust. Yes there have been no majors (yet). But there have been very interesting tropical systems to track and to learn from. Some, like Dorian the zombie storm, that wouldn't die, kept the blog guessing, and was at least to me pretty interesting. I think the activity and unusual flow off the East coast of US has also been interesting. Isn't this what meteorology is really about? We still have till Nov. and as I said, I think this season is a "late-bloomer, and we still will see some "real" action before all is said and done.


Ahh, a voice of reason...
1141. SLU
At least the tripole looks a little better defined. Some consolation at least ...

1142. ncstorm
well..if anything the CMC doesnt think the season is over..



EL NINO, LA NINA, NEUTRAL.... well, it doesn't really matter.
1145. ncstorm
anyone know if the global hawk data was put in the 00z run of the CMC?
1146. K8eCane
Quoting 1145. ncstorm:
anyone know if the global hawk data was put in the 00z run of the CMC?


lets hope not
1147. GatorWX
Quoting 1144. CaribBoy:
EL NINO, LA NINA, NEUTRAL.... well, it doesn't really matter.


No, they just tell us it does. What do they know? What are you hoping happens? Every day it's the same thing.
this season is an anamoly. lots of work to be done to find out why its so inactive and the global tropics as a whole
1149. ncstorm
Quoting 1146. K8eCane:


lets hope not


LOL..I know right..
1150. GatorWX
Quoting 1146. K8eCane:


lets hope not


Was that the one with the MONSTER?
1151. GatorWX
Quoting 1142. ncstorm:
well..if anything the CMC doesnt think the season is over..





Coulda scrolled up.....drrr


That hotspot on the right looks better than anything else. Low shear, convection. Where's Gro when ya need him?
there has been alot of invest and or disturbed areas this season but for one reason or another there has been no 'twist'
Quoting 1142. ncstorm:
well..if anything the CMC doesnt think the season is over..




Its not over yet but that is not going to happen. Don't worry. Trough is protecting you and the rest of the US.
1155. GatorWX
Quoting 1128. StormTrackerScott:
The MJO that couldn't really ever make into the Caribbean.



I remember Dr M saying it's best east of the Caribbean in regards to development.
1156. K8eCane
Quoting 1150. GatorWX:


Was that the one with the MONSTER?


yeah the monster at my doorstep
wilmington nc
1157. pcola57


Australia's long kiss goodbye to winter

The winter that never was, no longer is. Although officially, spring will not commence until this Sunday (September 1st), three weeks ahead of the spring equinox.

The 2013 winter will go in the annal books as an unseasonably warm winter across not only southeastern Australia but for the whole country with very few cold spells throughout the June-to-August period. This winter will probably be in the top three warmest on records, if not the warmest.

Temperatures have been particularly warm due to a stronger than average subtropical ridge across central areas of the continent. This has led to clear skies and plenty of sunshine to warm up the central interior. The subtropical ridge has also been further south than usual, preventing cold fronts reaching the southern states from polar regions.

Although we have had some cold fronts marching through southern Australia this winter, drawing the warm air south with northerly winds ahead of them, they have also been weaker than usual. The cold air behind these front have been generally not as cold or long lived, to flush the heat away from the landmass.

Sea surface temperatures surrounding the country have also been warmer than usual, as there has been plenty of sunshine to warm the ocean surface around Australia. Warmer than usual onshore winds have therefore added to the warming effect.

In fact, the past 12 months have all been abnormally warm, a feature that started in September 2012 and which led to Australia's hottest day on record, hottest summer on record and hottest September-to-June on record. And this hasn't discriminated between rural or urban areas, as everyone has been the subject of the mercury rising.

For those now thinking how September is shaping up, or how the spring and summer will end up being, I must emphasis that there is no way of forecasting the day-to-day temperatures so far in advance, and summer is still three to six months ahead.

We do live in a country of extremes or as Dorothea Mackellar wrote back in 1908 '... a land of droughts and flooding rains'. As such its not going to be long before we get to see 30 degree days in the south and even 40 degrees across the north. The fact is, extremes are intrinsic to our country and the next two weeks will seem particularly warm.

Looking at the trend of the past 11 months and bearing in mind that climate drivers like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation are most likely to remain neutral, temperatures will be on the warmer side of the long term norm. In fact, if the last four months of 2013 follow the trend of what happened over the last four months of the past 10 years, we will most likely end up very much on the warm side of the balance. A balance that could see 2013 as one of, if not the warmest on record.



© Weatherzone 2013
Sunny and 92 today, finally some decent weather while I'm off.
1160. Kyon5

1161. pcola57
Sorry if this has been posted already..



12 week animation compairision..

Good Morning!
7:07 am (11:07 GMT)

Another (yawn) sunrise from Lantana, Florida. Think it's time for a new angle? (come on bridge!) Maybe I'll drag my lazy butt (and Dexter's cute one) over to the ocean side this weekend. Stay tuned.


The Johnson's went on their cat-pod rounds early this morning, and Dex got to ride on Mr. J's wheeled-walker! Kisses for everyone! yea!

No rain yesterday, none expected today. Have a great Friday all...

Word of the Day: Flummoxed
flum·moxed
ˈfləməkst/Submit
adjective
1.
bewildered or perplexed.
"he became flummoxed and speechless" (thanks to SLU #1110)

I went to the bookstore and asked the salesman where the self-help section was. He said if he told me it would defeat the purpose.
1163. GatorWX
Excerpt from wiki,

"The basic concept of a hurricane season began during 1935, when dedicated wire circuits known as hurricane circuits began to be set up along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, a process completed by 1955. It was originally the time frame when the tropics were monitored routinely for tropical cyclone activity, and was originally defined as from June 15 through October 31. Over the years, the beginning date was shifted back to June 1, while the end date was shifted to November 15, before settling at November 30 by 1965."

However, activity can happen at any time of the year and will be included in the tally of the corresponding year's season. Epsilon '05 originated in December and persisted into January, remember? You never know until it's over. This season is not a bust, it's not anything, yet. If no storms are active December 31st, 2013, then we can make conclusions on this hurricane season. Until then why don't we just wait and see what actually happens?
1164. GatorWX
The dates we use to refer to hurricane season are as arbitrary as political borders.
1165. GatorWX
Quoting 1161. pcola57:
Sorry if this has been posted already..



12 week animation compairision..



Wet spring and summer in the East? Jeez, hasn't looked like that in awhile.
tropical wave with 40% not moving at all
Quoting 1123. StormTrackerScott:
Yeah I think after 3 active season in a row that this year may be more in line with what we had in 2009. Sorry folks that means many blog meltdown days ahead.
I'm so sad for you.No trolls to track.So until next year TrollTrackerScott.
This how I feel about this years hurricane season.


Quoting 1167. prcane4you:
I'm so sad for you.No trolls to track.So until next yera TrollTrackerScott.


Yeah except the troll would be you. Have a great day!
1170. SLU
Not sure how 96L will be able to develop when it's going to be moving towards the northwest into that stable airmass of stratocumulus clouds, dry air and cool SSTs. The EURO has realised this and basically kills the circulation in 3 days unlike the false alarm GFS which stubbornly forecasts development in that kind of environment. I'm leaning to the EURO's solution.



1172. hydrus
Quoting 1124. GatorWX:


Nice wave, btw. I was in NY State during that one. I remember Dennis, Ivan, Katrina and Rita well though. Neat when the surf goes off here, since it rarely does. It was funny seeing so many east coasters over here during those Gulf storms. Ivan had the best swell here in Englewood IMO. Swell rolled over the beach pilings, which was the only time I've seen that happen. It was a couple feet overhead here and very clean, but almost double overhead at North Jetty, Venice. Really nice clean swell.
I surfed a lot in the 80,s. Venice jetty and Englewood primarily. Break was sloppy most the time at Englewood. Venice was far better with a much longer ride. Best surf I have ever had was at Fort Pierce.
From Grothar's link on previous page...


Quote:
Next Weatherbell, a private forecasting firm, who employ well-known forecaster Joe Bastardi. His prediction for the 2013 hurricane season was released recently and it calls for 16 named tropical storms, a very high 12 hurricanes and 5 hurricanes reaching major status of Category 3 or higher. That's a very active season if it became reality!

Bastardi also puts a lot of emphasis on the warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic ocean, saying that 2013 could be a very dangerous hurricane year for the Caribbean and the southeast U.S. However he also forecasts above average activity up the East coast and into the Gulf and further west as well. He believes that 2013 will see hurricane activity shift back to the traditional paths we know from seasons such as 2004 and 2005, with hurricanes tracking a little further south than in 2012.

1174. ncstorm
I mean if yall are calling out Bastardi, better call out the NHC, Colorado State and everyone else who predicted an above average season..
1175. LargoFl
if i LIVED on these islands..I would be checking my supplies and preps..JUST IN CASE huh.........
being a hurricane forecaster is like being a professional gambler. having it as a hobby can be fun but can be annoying. if a system gets to near the windwds it could stick and ruin a forecast.
1177. GatorWX
Quoting 1172. hydrus:
I surfed a lot in the 80,s. Venice jetty and Englewood primarily. Break was sloppy most the time at Englewood. Venice was far better with a much longer ride. Best surf I have ever had was at Fort Pierce.


Venice North Jetty, Ivan. Nice clip, big day, long ride.
(From Gulfster.com)

North Jetty is best with a strong southerly swell and offshore winds. Ivan, Dennis, etc.
Wow, Geoff and Krylon... those waves are comming off the African coast with no assembly required, batteries included.

How did the models do on thier genesis? Bam! plenty o storm, plenty o spin.
Quoting 1124. GatorWX:


Nice wave, btw. I was in NY State during that one. I remember Dennis, Ivan, Katrina and Rita well though. Neat when the surf goes off here, since it rarely does. It was funny seeing so many east coasters over here during those Gulf storms. Ivan had the best swell here in Englewood IMO. Swell rolled over the beach pilings, which was the only time I've seen that happen. It was a couple feet overhead here and very clean, but almost double overhead at North Jetty, Venice. Really nice clean swell.


Yep, quite rare to get decent surf (clean surf) on the west side.
I can't remember the storm, but I caught some really clean (chest to head high) surf down at Bonita Beach. TWC was even on the beach that day reporting live.

Locally, Blind Pass on Captiva Island is the spot where most guys show up looking for surf over here. That spot is suprisingly powerful when there's a swell. Very steep wave when it forms.
1180. LargoFl
guys IF the GEM model verifies in the long run..this could be a cat4 or cat 5 in the end run..fantasyland
1181. Grothar
Quoting 1174. ncstorm:
I mean if yall are calling out Bastardi, better call out the NHC, Colorado State and everyone else who predicted an above average season..


No one is calling him out. In the article it mentions his forecast was the same as all the others. All five of the main forecasting systems called for basically the same type of hurricane season.
Quoting 1175. LargoFl:
if i LIVED on these islands..I would be checking my supplies and preps..JUST IN CASE huh.........


Sooner or later one of these models have to be spot on.
1183. GatorWX
Nice article I remember reading regarding surfing the west coast of FL.

Pensacola during Katrina:




Biggest I've seen in the Gulf. TX has good surf sometimes too, but I've never seen anything approaching pics above.
Quoting 1046. redwagon:


Very nice prose... what I was trying to point out is that *compared to many people who come through our doors everyday*, you, me and everybody on this blog have No Problems. Be grateful for No Problems, first. Then ascend.


I definitely agree. :)
Lol a while back we were saying if the Atlantic was quiet up to this point the blog would start putting all of its faith into October and even November. Yes the demarcations that define our hurricane season are manmade and nature does not have to obey them. However, the window is slowly closing and by the time we reach November it is only open a crack and by December it's 99% closed guys. Sorry.
The seasonal forecasts are less important, in terms of warning the public, than the subject of Jeff's most recent post. Since I live near Galveston, I'd like to see the models improve their ability to predict genesis in the GOM. We have plenty of time to react AFTER a storm forms in the MDR, but sometimes only a couple days if it's in the GOM.
1187. LargoFl
Quoting 1182. rmbjoe1954:


Sooner or later one of these models have to be spot on.
yes, it IS that time of year alright..
Quoting 1180. LargoFl:
guys IF the GEM model verifies in the long run..this could be a cat4 or cat 5 in the end run..fantasyland


It won't verify. Not while it has absolutely no model support, other than some from the NAVGEM and UKMET.
1189. LargoFl
GFS for some reason puts them all out to sea so far...
1190. GatorWX
Quoting 1179. Sfloridacat5:


Yep, quite rare to get decent surf (clean surf) on the west side.
I can't remember the storm, but I caught some really clean (chest to head high) surf down at Bonita Beach. TWC was even on the beach that day reporting live.

Locally, Blind Pass on Captiva Island is the spot where most guys show up looking for surf over here. That spot is suprisingly powerful when there's a swell. Very steep wave when it forms.


It said Gustav when I clicked the picture. Check out the video I posted above from Venice. Nice swell!
1191. LargoFl
Quoting 1188. CybrTeddy:


It won't verify. Not while it has absolutely no model support.
yeah im seeing that too..cmc and gem make it a hurricane..we'll see..plenty of time yet to watch it..NHC has it at 60% in 5 days, thats better than we've seen in months huh..
Quoting 1175. LargoFl:
if i LIVED on these islands..I would be checking my supplies and preps..JUST IN CASE huh.........


CMC 144H... 0.01% chance :( But I would love to see a good surprise
1193. ncstorm
Quoting 1181. Grothar:


No one is calling him out. In the article it mentions his forecast was the same as all the others. All five of the main forecasting systems called for basically the same type of hurricane season.


well, I wasnt speaking of you Gro..(hands over a krispy kreme doughnut)....

further down in comments you will see once again that Bastardi is targeted on the blog..I just wanted to remind people that many of the experts made the same predictions as he did..



1194. hydrus
Quoting 1177. GatorWX:


Venice North Jetty, Ivan. Nice clip, big day, long ride.
(From Gulfster.com)

North Jetty is best with a strong southerly swell and offshore winds. Ivan, Dennis, etc.
Nice. Best swell I have ever seen ( but did not surf) was Allen in 1980. Once he moved through the Yucatan Channel into the gulf, absolutely marvelous swells coming in from the S.W. at Fort Myers Beach and Naples.
this model having been telling us this hurricane for three days now.
Quoting 1183. GatorWX:
Nice article I remember reading regarding surfing the west coast of FL.

Pensacola during Katrina:




Biggest I've seen in the Gulf. TX has good surf sometimes too, but I've never seen anything approaching pics above.



I lived at Flour Bluff (Corpus Christ/Padre Island Tx.). I've surfed some huge waves (put a VW bus inside the barrel) in Texas. We caught many huge hurricane swells.
Our local spot was Bob Hall Pier. Still have lots of friends in Corpus that surf.

Quoting 1170. SLU:
Not sure how 96L will be able to develop when it's going to be moving towards the northwest into that stable airmass of stratocumulus clouds, dry air and cool SSTs. The EURO has realised this and basically kills the circulation in 3 days unlike the false alarm GFS which stubbornly forecasts development in that kind of environment. I'm leaning to the EURO's solution.




Yep, dry air is obvious, some dust and heading straight into high shear. It's just another example of do-nothing 2013 waves.
1198. Grothar
Quoting 1152. seer2012:


That hotspot on the right looks better than anything else. Low shear, convection. Where's Gro when ya need him?



It seems lately I spend most of my time having to defend myself for posts people misunderstand. So if I miss a blob, I'm sorry. I am preoccupied.

As a matter of fact, the blog is becoming so irritating with people who only read what they want to read and have no comprehension of an entire entry, that I am blogging less and less. Having to defend oneself on every entry is getting a little tiresome.

1199. K8eCane
Quoting 1180. LargoFl:
guys IF the GEM model verifies in the long run..this could be a cat4 or cat 5 in the end run..fantasyland


please i hope that isnt moving west. thats close enuf for that monster
Quoting 1168. StormTrackerScott:
This how I feel about this years hurricane season.


So funny,no wonder you are TrollTracker.
did invest 96L STOP MOVING??
1202. ncstorm
Quoting 1188. CybrTeddy:


It won't verify. Not while it has absolutely no model support, other than some from the NAVGEM and UKMET.


Navgem dropped it..I dont know about the UKMET but lets not forget Andrea..CMC had no other model support as well and we wll know how that ended..

1203. GatorWX
Quoting 1194. hydrus:
Nice. Best swell I have ever seen ( but did not surf) was Allen in 1980. Once he moved through the Yucatan Channel into the gulf, absolutely marvelous swells coming in from the S.W. at Fort Myers Beach and Naples.


It's pretty rare to get a nice ground swell. Rita threw off a nice one. I remember getting rolled along with a bunch of dead fish. Nasty red tide that summer! It was the only time it ever really affected me. I can usually handle it pretty well.
Quoting 1198. Grothar:



It seems lately I spend most of my time having to defend myself for posts people misunderstand. So if I miss a blob, I'm sorry. I am preoccupied.

As a matter of fact, the blog is becoming so irritating with people who only read what they want to read and have no comprehension of an entire entry, that I am blogging less and less. Having to defend oneself on every entry is getting a little tiresome.



Don't worry Gro. You had me at blob.
"I went to the bookstore and asked the salesman where the self-help section was. He said if he told me it would defeat the purpose."

I like how Zen the hard core folks on here are taking this season. What's for breakfast?

Amazing timelapse movies of the rim fire. It gives me a new perspective on the energies involved and the evolution of a fire front. Thanks for posting that Dr. M.
the GEM MODEL SHOW THAT HURRICANE ON WEDNEDAY AND THURDAY AND NOW ON FRIDAY!AT 222 HOURS FROM NOW!
1207. LargoFl
Quoting 1202. ncstorm:


Navgem dropped it..I dont know about the UKMET but lets not forget Andrea..CMC had no other model support as well and we wll know how that ended..

yes we do need to watch it this coming week
1208. GatorWX
Quoting 1198. Grothar:



It seems lately I spend most of my time having to defend myself for posts people misunderstand. So if I miss a blob, I'm sorry. I am preoccupied.

As a matter of fact, the blog is becoming so irritating with people who only read what they want to read and have no comprehension of an entire entry, that I am blogging less and less. Having to defend oneself on every entry is getting a little tiresome.



Just wanted this^ to repost as I couldn't agree more.
1209. LargoFl
Quoting 1199. K8eCane:


please i hope that isnt moving west. thats close enuf for that monster
this one time im hoping the GFS is right...out to sea with it.
Quoting 1108. IKE:

2m
Incredible lack of tropical
activity GLOBALLY probably due in at least part to drying mid/upper
levels, OPPOSITE OF IPCC AND EPA contentions..........
...................................... ...
Think I'll go mow my front yard. More spinning in that then what's in the ATL.Number of hurricanes in the ATL this season....0.Number of 70 mph TS's in the ATL this season....0.


The last I checked, the IPCC and EPA don't do weather forecasting.

The EPA? Really? Bastardi must be losing his mind or something. Or gunning for a political commentary position on Fox News.
1211. hydrus
Quoting 1179. Sfloridacat5:


Yep, quite rare to get decent surf (clean surf) on the west side.
I can't remember the storm, but I caught some really clean (chest to head high) surf down at Bonita Beach. TWC was even on the beach that day reporting live.

Locally, Blind Pass on Captiva Island is the spot where most guys show up looking for surf over here. That spot is suprisingly powerful when there's a swell. Very steep wave when it forms.
When I lived there ( 70,s and 80,s ) the current at blind pass with the outgoing tide would put vertical faces on 7 to 9 foot high waves 100 feet from the shore in three feet of water. One of the worst wipe outs I ever had. Board nosed into the sand, and I came down on the back of the board. one of the fins gored my left leg.
1212. JRRP
is the CMC that shows a Hurricane... that´s why i don´t worry
1213. LargoFl
folks up on the upper west coast of florida..storms firing up now...
Quoting 1198. Grothar:



It seems lately I spend most of my time having to defend myself for posts people misunderstand. So if I miss a blob, I'm sorry. I am preoccupied.

As a matter of fact, the blog is becoming so irritating with people who only read what they want to read and have no comprehension of an entire entry, that I am blogging less and less. Having to defend oneself on every entry is getting a little tiresome.



yeah Gro......exactly what StormW. went thru.... don't worry Gro... some folks just can't, can't let anyone have anything nice.. you do great my friend.. keep up the good work
TrollTrackerScott was diagnosed with a severe tropical depression due to inactive season.Homer Simpson is the solution.LOL.
this season has been completely awful. a bust season. very unfortunate
1217. DFWjc
Quoting 1116. StormTrackerScott:
Very unusual.



Nice little spinner just south of the keys....
Rim Fire Incident Information:
Last Updated: August 30, 2013 6:30 am
Date/Time Started: August 17, 2013 3:25 pm
Administrative Unit: Stanislaus National Forest / CAL FIRE Tuolumne-Calaveras Unit
County: Tuolumne County
Location: 3 miles east of Groveland along Hwy 120
Acres Burned - Containment: 201,894 acres - 32% contained
Structures Threatened: 5,506 (4,500 residences, 1,000 outbuildings, 6 commercial)
Structures Destroyed: 111 (11 residences, 97 outbuildings, 3 commercial)
Evacuations: The Tuolumne County Sheriff’s Department has lifted the evacuation advisory for Tuolumne City, Soulsbyville and Willow Springs. The evacuation advisory remains in effect for Ponderosa Hills and areas east, along the south side of Highway 108 up to Pinecrest. An Evacuation Warning has been issued for all residences north of Bull Creek Road (Forest Road 2S02), Bondurant Mine Road, Texas Hill Road, and Wampum Hill. A Mandatory Evacuation has been issued for residences north of Old Yosemite Road (Forest Road 2S01). Highway 120 at the Yosemite National Park boundary west to Buck Meadows has been evacuated. Evacuation centers are at the Mother Lode Fairgrounds in Sonora and at the Greeley Hill Community Center.
Road Closures : Highway 120 remains closed from Buck Meadows to 1 ½ miles east of White Wolf. Highway 120 east/Tioga Road remains open from 1 ½
Injuries: 4
Cause: Under Investigation
Cooperating Agencies: CAL FIRE, USFS, CDCR, Mariposa County Sheriff, Tuolumne County Sheriff, California Conservation Corps, CHP, DOD, NWS, Pacific Gas and Electric, City and County of San Francisco Dept of Emergency Management., and the Red Cross.
Total Fire Personnel: 4,931
Total Fire Engines: 525
Total Fire crews: 105
Total Helicopters: 26
Total Dozers: 85
Total Water Tenders: 55
Conditions: The advisory evacuation notice for Tuolumne City, Soulsbyville and Willow Springs has been lifted. Firefighters began burning operations south of Hetch Hetchy and along Old Yosemite Road. Crews continue with line construction near Clavey Meadows near the 3N01 Road. Crews began removing fuels along the Tioga Road and Highway 120 near the Yosemite National Park entrance in preparation for the planned burnout. This work is to reduce the intensity of the burnout. The burnout has begun near Pilot Peak. Night crews will continue with burning operations as long as weather conditions allow, and will construct and improve firelines and provide structure defense.
Yosemite National Park has closed Tamarack Flat and Yosemite Creek Campgrounds, both located along the Tioga Road. White Wolf Campground and White Wolf Lodge remain closed. If you have questions about Yosemite National Park call 209-372-0327 or 209-372-0329. The Stanislaus National Forest has issued an area closure for the entire Groveland Ranger District and for the Mi-Wok Ranger District east of Highway 108. Additional details are available from the Stanislaus Forest Supervisor's Office, 209-532-3671; Mi-Wok Ranger Station, (209) 586-3234; Summit Ranger Station, 209-965-3434; and Groveland Ranger Station, 209-962-7825.

CAL FIRE went into unified command with the US Forest Service on Wednesday, August 21, 2013.
Quoting 1198. Grothar:



It seems lately I spend most of my time having to defend myself for posts people misunderstand. So if I miss a blob, I'm sorry. I am preoccupied.

As a matter of fact, the blog is becoming so irritating with people who only read what they want to read and have no comprehension of an entire entry, that I am blogging less and less. Having to defend oneself on every entry is getting a little tiresome.



You don't need to defend yourself. Sometimes people are unteachable and rude. I enjoy what you say, blog on.
Quoting 1198. Grothar:



It seems lately I spend most of my time having to defend myself for posts people misunderstand. So if I miss a blob, I'm sorry. I am preoccupied.

As a matter of fact, the blog is becoming so irritating with people who only read what they want to read and have no comprehension of an entire entry, that I am blogging less and less. Having to defend oneself on every entry is getting a little tiresome.


Wasn't intending any offense. I apologize for any perceived attack for it most definitely wasn't intended as such, just a teasing comment.I understand your dilemma! This attack crap that goes here is atrocious and non-stop.
1221. SLU
Quoting 1197. seer2012:

Yep, dry air is obvious, some dust and heading straight into high shear. It's just another example of do-nothing 2013 waves.


We will be lucky to get even a TD out of 96L with a track like that.
Not the best pic.
Here I'm smashing the lip on a wave at fish pass (Mustang Island Jetty - near Corpus Christ Tx). That's the color of the water on most days when there's surf there.
1224. LargoFl
Folks in central florida need to watch your warnings today...............................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
A VERY LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
INLAND AND OVER THE NATURE COAST. LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 4 INCHES OR MORE...RESULTING IN FLOODING AND PONDING
OF WATER. NEVER DRIVE A VEHICLE OVER A FLOODED ROADWAY.

Quoting 1201. hurricanes2018:
did invest 96L STOP MOVING??
No.Soon will be moving to fish waters.
Quoting Grothar:



It seems lately I spend most of my time having to defend myself for posts people misunderstand. So if I miss a blob, I'm sorry. I am preoccupied.

As a matter of fact, the blog is becoming so irritating with people who only read what they want to read and have no comprehension of an entire entry, that I am blogging less and less. Having to defend oneself on every entry is getting a little tiresome.



Mate! If people misread misunderstand or misinterpret what you've written, it's Their problem, not your's. Don't change what you've been doing as long as your health is good.
1227. hydrus
Quoting 1198. Grothar:



It seems lately I spend most of my time having to defend myself for posts people misunderstand. So if I miss a blob, I'm sorry. I am preoccupied.

As a matter of fact, the blog is becoming so irritating with people who only read what they want to read and have no comprehension of an entire entry, that I am blogging less and less. Having to defend oneself on every entry is getting a little tiresome.

As the Blog Turns...One Blog to Live..The Young and the Blogless..The Blogs of Our Lives...Nadia,s Theme playing in da background...morning Gro..:)
1228. GatorWX
Quoting 1211. hydrus:
When I lived there ( 70,s and 80,s ) the current at blind pass with the outgoing tide would put vertical faces on 7 to 9 foot high waves 100 feet from the shore in three feet of water. One of the worst wipe outs I ever had. Board nosed into the sand, and I came down on the back of the board. one of the fins gored my left leg.


I got a fin at north jetty Venice once, not from my own either. So congested there, lame! And that is some shallow water for that big of swell. At least it's sand and not a reef. This pic is the place I found the best surf in my lifetime, so far:




Steamer Lane, Santa Cruz, CA. I used to visit my dad and my aunt there every summer. Such a nice coastline. Very nice point break. COLD!!! My aunt live about 6 blocks in from Steamer, convenient. It usually was a nice clean swell, long rides, long sets, just very cold! (low-mid 50's all summer). I'd wear a wet suit in anything under 70 here. lol
1229. ncstorm
Its really not that serious to be getting worked up on this blog..I dont know any of yall..never met yall or will plan on doing it in the future..If anyone should be ranting 24/7 it should be me..I'm always thrown insults and sometimes I respond if bored:) but I never leave this blog to where I am upset..as in sports a coach would say leave it on the court, you should do the same here and leave it on the blog..

if anyone wants to talk directly to me instead of indirectly, my email is always open..

and Gro, if you felt like I was coming at you, I wasn't....again..



1230. LargoFl
seems GFS might be right with 96L.........
1231. GatorWX
The young and the blogless lol.
1232. GatorWX
Quoting 1223. Sfloridacat5:
Not the best pic.
Here I'm smashing the lip on a wave at fish pass (Mustang Island Jetty - near Corpus Christ Tx). That's the color of the water on most days when there's surf there.


Nice, ever see the tanker swell in Galveston? BTW, looks like our water presently. Lovely, that dirty lake water, :p Yuck!
Quoting 1230. LargoFl:
seems GFS might be right with 96L.........
For those who likes to track fishes.
1234. 7544
Quoting 1217. DFWjc:


Nice little spinner just south of the keys....


and another fl blob is born where will this one go ?
1235. LargoFl
Quoting 1233. prcane4you:
For those who likes to track fishes.
would it be better if a cat-4 was coming to your area?...all these storms should be fish storms in my view..
I think the blog needs to eat breakfast. Let me rustle some up for you...

1237. LargoFl
GFS has nothing bothering us for awhile...............
Quoting 1216. wunderweatherman123:
this season has been completely awful. a bust season. very unfortunate


I wish it would be this way every year, nobody needs the damage these storms cause.
1239. GatorWX
Well no surf for awhile here. Normal summer flatness, so guess it's back the watching and waiting. Closest thing to home and imo most interesting feature at present:




Looks to be fading away again however.
1240. LargoFl
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

CORRECTED TO ADD...HIGH CHANCE...IN FIRST PARAGRAPH

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
SLOWED DOWN AND IT IS STILL LOCATED OVER EXTREME WESTERN AFRICA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE LOW MOVES BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
WHETHER THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...IT WILL
LIKELY BRING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS
1241. Grothar
Look, I haven't mentioned it, but I probably don't have much time left. The few people on the blog who actually know me in person, already know this. I am the last one to play the sympathy card or I would have done it a long time ago.

I am not supposed to have any stress and lately that is all there is. It is a shame, because you all have to know I would not be here at all if I wasn't genuinely fond of each of you as I have mentioned many times before. My family is away quite a bit and I led a very active life. Being here and getting to know you has been a pleasure. You have uplifted me more than you will ever know. But I think it is time to retire, even for a little while. I'm not saying I won't drop in and say hello. I just don't want an argument about it.
1242. LargoFl
Quoting 1241. Grothar:
Look, I haven't mentioned it, but I probably don't have much time left. The few people on the blog who actually know me in person, already know this. I am the last one to play the sympathy card or I would have done it a long time ago.

I am not supposed to have any stress and lately that is all there is. It is a shame, because you all have to know I would not be here at all if I wasn't genuinely fond of each of you as I have mentioned many times before. My family is away quite a bit and I led a very active life. Being here and getting to know you has been a pleasure. You have uplifted me more than you will ever know. But I think it is time to retire, even for a little while. I'm not saying I won't drop in and say hello. I just don't want an argument about it.
OK Gro we understand..you take care and do what you must ok..you have made alot of online friends in here..
Predicting the future based on current information doesn't really work anywhere with any reliability. Look at all the polls that try to predict election outcomes, all the economists that try to predict the market, all the sports pundits that try to predict the next superball winner. I recommend people check out freakonnomics.com and the "folly of prediction" podcast. http://freakonomics.com/2011/09/14/new-freakonomic s-radio-podcast-the-folly-of-prediction/

The fact that we get real-time data and updates lets us be prepared days in advance which is far better than wondering what those dark clouds on the horizon mean or pink sky in morning, sailor take warning.
1244. GatorWX
Click to animate if you so wish.

1245. txjac
Quoting 1241. Grothar:
Look, I haven't mentioned it, but I probably don't have much time left. The few people on the blog who actually know me in person, already know this. I am the last one to play the sympathy card or I would have done it a long time ago.

I am not supposed to have any stress and lately that is all there is. It is a shame, because you all have to know I would not be here at all if I wasn't genuinely fond of each of you as I have mentioned many times before. My family is away quite a bit and I led a very active life. Being here and getting to know you has been a pleasure. You have uplifted me more than you will ever know. But I think it is time to retire, even for a little while. I'm not saying I won't drop in and say hello. I just don't want an argument about it.



And we are fond of you ...you're like talking with a brother/friend when I listen to you on the blog. You must think of yourself first and foremost ..so if you have to take off for a bit ...do it. Those of us that care, do understand. You and your wit will be sorely missed ..please drop in to say hello.
Quoting 1241. Grothar:
Look, I haven't mentioned it, but I probably don't have much time left. The few people on the blog who actually know me in person, already know this. I am the last one to play the sympathy card or I would have done it a long time ago.

I am not supposed to have any stress and lately that is all there is. It is a shame, because you all have to know I would not be here at all if I wasn't genuinely fond of each of you as I have mentioned many times before. My family is away quite a bit and I led a very active life. Being here and getting to know you has been a pleasure. You have uplifted me more than you will ever know. But I think it is time to retire, even for a little while. I'm not saying I won't drop in and say hello. I just don't want an argument about it.


If that is what you need Gro, we support you! Hope you are not gone for long, will miss your weather knowledge and your general wittiness!
1247. LargoFl
I understand how gro feels and when someone gets too aggressive I use the Ignore button always..works great for me..im NOT a met and dont pretend to be..Im just a guy who likes to watch the weather..especially for Florida..as most of us here are..just normal folks watching the weather..thats all this place is..
Quoting 1245. txjac:



And we are fond of you ...you're like talking with a brother/friend when I listen to you on the blog. You must think of yourself first and foremost ..so if you have to take off for a bit ...do it. Those of us that care, do understand. You and your wit will be sorely missed ..please drop in to say hello.


Jinx! lol we pretty much said the same thing haha!
Quoting 1229. ncstorm:
Its really not that serious to be getting worked up on this blog..I dont know any of yall..never met yall or will plan on doing it in the future..If anyone should be ranting 24/7 it should be me..I'm always thrown insults and sometimes I respond if bored:) but I never leave this blog to where I am upset..as in sports a coach would say leave it on the court, you should do the same here and leave it on the blog..

if anyone wants to talk directly to me instead of indirectly, my email is always open..

and Gro, if you felt like I was coming at you, I wasn't....again..




NC,
Thank you for the model posts much appreciated. What makes this blog irritating lately are not the models or anything like that, it is the comments on the number of fish storms or how a select few want a cat 5 hitting them. I am not sure if they do it just to get a rise out of others or seriously have some issues of distress. I hope it is the former and not the latter and can seek professional help if they need it.
Quoting 1241. Grothar:
Look, I haven't mentioned it, but I probably don't have much time left. The few people on the blog who actually know me in person, already know this. I am the last one to play the sympathy card or I would have done it a long time ago.

I am not supposed to have any stress and lately that is all there is. It is a shame, because you all have to know I would not be here at all if I wasn't genuinely fond of each of you as I have mentioned many times before. My family is away quite a bit and I led a very active life. Being here and getting to know you has been a pleasure. You have uplifted me more than you will ever know. But I think it is time to retire, even for a little while. I'm not saying I won't drop in and say hello. I just don't want an argument about it.


It is very important that you think of yourself first Gro. Your friends will understand and respect your decision. Please take care and if you feel up to it drop in to say hello when you.
1251. txjac
Quoting 1248. Dragod66:


Jinx! lol we pretty much said the same thing haha!


And at the same time ...
Quoting 1247. LargoFl:
I understand how gro feels and when someone gets too aggressive I use the Ignore button always..works great for me..im NOT a met and dont pretend to be..Im just a guy who likes to watch the weather..especially for Florida..as most of us here are..just normal folks watching the weather..thats all this place is..

You do a great job at it, you don't get carried away with it.
1253. L1990
Quoting 1239. GatorWX:
Well no surf for awhile here. Normal summer flatness, so guess it's back the watching and waiting. Closest thing to home and imo most interesting feature at present:




Looks to be fading away again however.



i get worried when i see something right there..... when was the last time we had an entire season without a hurricane?
1254. LargoFl
Short Term Forecast

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
945 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

GMZ052-053-072-073-301500-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE
OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE
20 TO 60 NM OUT-
945 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

.NOW...
THROUGH 11 AM...A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM
10 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS...TO 20 TO 60 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE
MIDDLE KEYS. MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF RAIN WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR 15 KNOTS...BUT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE MASS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
EVAPORATE AS IT APPROACHES HAWK CHANNEL SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS.
THE INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS BEYOND 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER
KEYS WILL DRIFT NORTH NEAR 5 KNOTS. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL GENERATE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND CUT VISIBILITY TO BELOW 4 MILES IN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

$$
1255. GatorWX
Gro,

I may not be a "regular" here, but I've been around since '05, even though my member since date suggests otherwise(began with a different handle). I've seen many come and go and have learned through the years who are genuine and who's insightful. You, Grothar have provided me with many laughs, made me think, provided me with good perspective, etc. I know the common joke is always about your age. Age is just a number even though it's reality and in my book, representative of person who may know a lot more than me. Thanks for sticking it out. I hope you don't allow a silly blog in virtual land to cause you too much stress, but if so, don't deal with it. It's easy for people to attack others, etc in these forums as it is as I stated virtual land. Hang in there guy, if you wish. We love ya and appreciate you more than you probably realize!
Quoting 1241. Grothar:
Look, I haven't mentioned it, but I probably don't have much time left. The few people on the blog who actually know me in person, already know this. I am the last one to play the sympathy card or I would have done it a long time ago.

I am not supposed to have any stress and lately that is all there is. It is a shame, because you all have to know I would not be here at all if I wasn't genuinely fond of each of you as I have mentioned many times before. My family is away quite a bit and I led a very active life. Being here and getting to know you has been a pleasure. You have uplifted me more than you will ever know. But I think it is time to retire, even for a little while. I'm not saying I won't drop in and say hello. I just don't want an argument about it.

Gro,
You will have nothing left to do but clean the house for the mrs. right? At least this blog gets you out that, lol. :) Hopefully you don't go, your humor is always appreciated and balances out the blog nicely.
1257. LargoFl
storm firing up to the north of me now.........
1258. txjac
Quoting 1255. GatorWX:
Gro,

I may not be a "regular" here, but I've been around since '05, even though my member since date suggests otherwise(began with a different handle). I've seen many come and go and have learned through the years who are genuine and who's insightful. You, Grothar have provided me with many laughs, made me think, provided me with good perspective, etc. I know the common joke is always about your age. Age is just a number even though it's reality and in my book, representative of person who may know a lot more than me. Thanks for sticking it out. I hope you don't allow a silly blog in virtual land to cause you too much stress, but if so, don't deal with it. It's easy for people to attack others, etc in these forums as it is as I stated virtual land. Hang in there guy, if you wish. We love ya and appreciate you more than you probably realize!




Plus, plus, plus ...cant plus it enough
1259. ohzone
Quoting 1214. RidingTheStormOut:


yeah Gro......exactly what StormW. went thru.... don't worry Gro... some folks just can't, can't let anyone have anything nice.. you do great my friend.. keep up the good work


I know I am signed up using a handle . . .but if this blog would do what Huffington Post is going to do: no anonymous posts, all members must use real name - - personal attacks would lessen. It's very easy to attack someone behind a fake name, less difficult when you have to back up your freedom of speech with who you really are!!
1260. ncstorm
Quoting 1241. Grothar:
Look, I haven't mentioned it, but I probably don't have much time left. The few people on the blog who actually know me in person, already know this. I am the last one to play the sympathy card or I would have done it a long time ago.

I am not supposed to have any stress and lately that is all there is. It is a shame, because you all have to know I would not be here at all if I wasn't genuinely fond of each of you as I have mentioned many times before. My family is away quite a bit and I led a very active life. Being here and getting to know you has been a pleasure. You have uplifted me more than you will ever know. But I think it is time to retire, even for a little while. I'm not saying I won't drop in and say hello. I just don't want an argument about it.


Gro, who would I call a twit if you leave?..Please stay and dont let comments stress you out. again, if it takes me apologizing and if you felt like I was coming at your post, I'm sorry, I really wasn't but again I will say sorry just for you to stay..I hope you will reconsider because lord knows this blog wouldnt be the same without you...

Signed..
Twit in Wilmington..

1261. LargoFl
Quoting 1259. ohzone:


I know I am signed up using a handle . . .but if this blog would do what Huffington Post is going to do: no anonymous posts, all members must use real name - - personal attacks would lessen. It's very easy to attack someone behind a fake name, less difficult when you have to back up your freedom of speech with who you really are!!

Wouldn't bother me...
1263. LargoFl
well thats it for me for awhile..stay safe out there,the dogs are looking at me for their walk in the park time lol...
Whomever has a problem with Gro, you really need to rethink who you are as a blogger and eat more fiber....seriously.

Gro, don't go anywhere. Love you, man!
1265. GatorWX
Quoting 1259. ohzone:


I know I am signed up using a handle . . .but if this blog would do what Huffington Post is going to do: no anonymous posts, all members must use real name - - personal attacks would lessen. It's very easy to attack someone behind a fake name, less difficult when you have to back up your freedom of speech with who you really are!!


I doubt that, but maybe. It's still virtual. That other person isn't standing in front of you. Some folks feel very empowered in virtual land!
Quoting 1204. StAugustineFL:


Don't worry Gro. You had me at blob.


Gro

As a long term lurker (pre-Katrina despite my apparent join date), I can say that there are people on here that eppreciate your comments and your humor and read them in their entirity, even if we don't say much in return. I am an engineer, not a met by training, so I prefer not to provide my 'expert opinion' on what is going on. There are a number of contributors to this blog who are less than civil, but many decent people who appreciate your comments too. Keep up the comments and remember that your 'fans' are backing you ;-)
1267. GatorWX
Quoting 1262. ScottLincoln:

Wouldn't bother me...


lol
Quoting 1198. Grothar:



It seems lately I spend most of my time having to defend myself for posts people misunderstand. So if I miss a blob, I'm sorry. I am preoccupied.

As a matter of fact, the blog is becoming so irritating with people who only read what they want to read and have no comprehension of an entire entry, that I am blogging less and less. Having to defend oneself on every entry is getting a little tiresome.

Gro, most of those that are expecting more out of you are the same one that really don't have anything to live for in real life. They are not the one telling you to make time for this blog. It's not a job to discuss weather with the others on here. You just do what you want to do, Gro :) Same could be said for Levi, as so many people are giving him an high expectation. I believe Levi is the best upcoming forecaster in the nation and many meteorologists on Twitter have told Levi this. It's understandable if you want Levi on here to listen to his forecasts, but people forget he's a college student studying Physics for a degree with future goal of a meteorology grad school. When he's not busy with college, which is really difficult to not be that I'm founding out, he still got a website he run and that's a lot of work. Same can be said for TropicalAnalystwx13, who is swamped with homework that his early college high school demands. My point is we all got active life outside blog so it's really unfair to expect ones to be on here all the time.
1269. Grothar
Quoting 1260. ncstorm:


Gro, who would I call a twit if you leave?..Please stay and dont let comments stress you out. again, if it takes me apologizing and if you felt like I was coming at your post, I'm sorry, I really wasn't but again I will say sorry just for you to stay..I hope you will reconsider because lord knows this blog wouldnt be the same without you...

Signed..
Twit in Wilmington..



No, nc. It wasn't you. It is just the general attacks of rude remarks that people make to each other in general, especially the one on Brian Norcross's blog attacking him. It is especially upsetting when I like both bloggers. It is just too hurtful to see.

And thank all of youl for the kind words, but I think I will take a little nap now.
Quoting 1262. ScottLincoln:

Wouldn't bother me...
I didn't use my real name when I signed up because I was still not an adult. Now that I am, I'm not afraid to say my full name or which college I'm attending. In fact, some of bloggers on here know my full name as well as me knowing full name of some on here because of a Facebook group that is run by TA13 (very impressive group, btw).
Curious. One expects increased water temperatures to spawn at least an average hurricane season.
1272. K8eCane
Gro I just saw your post. I for one would be upset if you leave. Do what you have to do for your health, but please try to stay if you can.
Quoting 1241. Grothar:
Look, I haven't mentioned it, but I probably don't have much time left. The few people on the blog who actually know me in person, already know this. I am the last one to play the sympathy card or I would have done it a long time ago.

I am not supposed to have any stress and lately that is all there is. It is a shame, because you all have to know I would not be here at all if I wasn't genuinely fond of each of you as I have mentioned many times before. My family is away quite a bit and I led a very active life. Being here and getting to know you has been a pleasure. You have uplifted me more than you will ever know. But I think it is time to retire, even for a little while. I'm not saying I won't drop in and say hello. I just don't want an argument about it.


I am not sure why I get on this blog every day when there is no apparent storm threat, however, I need to see what's on the sideboard, what Dexter is doing and how many times CaribBoy can say boring. Most of all, I truly enjoy all of the comments, knowledge and sense of humor Gro brings to this community.

Gro, I would ask you to stay on as long as possible, perhaps selfishly, since without you these discussions would lose a lot of their soul.

1274. JRRP
the low SW of CV looks interesting
Quoting 1243. Carltona:
Predicting the future based on current information doesn't really work anywhere with any reliability. Look at all the polls that try to predict election outcomes, all the economists that try to predict the market, all the sports pundits that try to predict the next superball winner. I recommend people check out freakonnomics.com and the "folly of prediction" podcast. http://freakonomics.com/2011/09/14/new-freakonomic s-radio-podcast-the-folly-of-prediction/

I don't know if that is entirely true. Scientists do this kind of prediction quite often, and there is varying levels of success depending on the situation. A blanket "it doesn't work anywhere" statement probably isn't accurate.

For example, in river forecasting, we have models that help us estimate how much infiltration and runoff has occurred (runoff gets converted to a flow hydrograph forecast), but many times we use "checks" to make sure the model is behaving appropriately. A frequently-used check would be to use a Mean-Aerial-Rainfall-to-Crest plot, which contains most historical crests and how much rainfall it took to get there. If the hydrologic model is suggesting a vastly different outcome than actual observed outcomes from the past, then the forecast deserves more scrutiny. In some cases, these rainfall-to-crest plots even out-perform our hydrologic models, and all the plot uses is observed forecasted rainfall, and current soil moisture condition!

Also, with election outcomes vs. polling, I would almost bet that the majority of the time, election polling is a good forecast of outcomes, at least when there is enough data. One poll is rarely enough due to the uncertainty, but with multiple polls, the sample size increases, the margin of error decreases, biases are mitigated, and the result is less often far from the forecast. Look at the successes of FiveThirtyEight's methodology and that of RealClearPolitics.

It just really depends on the situation... how much data is available from past outcomes, and how much variability in past outcomes is explained by data you have.
Quoting 1247. LargoFl:
I understand how gro feels and when someone gets too aggressive I use the Ignore button always..works great for me..im NOT a met and dont pretend to be..Im just a guy who likes to watch the weather..especially for Florida..as most of us here are..just normal folks watching the weather..thats all this place is..


Well put Largo, I'm here for the same reasons. I can throw a rock from my backyard to the water so what happens in the tropics is a big concern for me. I come here so I know first when something might threaten my home.

Gro I wish you the best, you're one of the good guys here!
Quoting 1272. K8eCane:
Gro I just saw your post. I for one would be upset if you leave. Do what you have to do for your health, but please try to stay if you can.
Agree!
Quoting 1274. JRRP:
the low SW of CV looks interesting


It might develop into something but all indications are it will go harmlessly out to sea long before it threatens any land areas.
Quoting 1274. JRRP:
the low SW of CV looks interesting


You also can see the easterly shear affecting 96L with the low exposed. Agree about that low latitude low is interesting.
Quoting 1271. canyonboy:
Curious. One expects increased water temperatures to spawn at least an average hurricane season.

Unfortunately, there are many other variables at play. Some that we don't always have a great handle on, at least on an individual year's timescale. Many of the other variables are piling against warm sea surface temperatures.
1281. GatorWX
Now, after reading, I feel like I was agreeing with that person. I certainly had no intention of that. Norcross is one of the best we have, imo.

*agreeing to a degree
ECMWF is very bullish on development of 96L, but only brings it to 35 knots before it kills it.

We need your wisdom and Blobology  expertise Grothar, stick around you make this a better blog.
its good to see twc bringing it to the table this yr. they need a storm .
um, can you guys work on your sensitivity training, hold hands and sing "kumbaya" on another forum. :)

Ignoring other people's opinions you don't like is part of 'turn the other cheek'.
1286. K8eCane
Well I hope whoever felt like they had to troll Grothar is satisfied. maturity is an asset.
Quoting 1280. ScottLincoln:

Unfortunately, there are many other variables at play. Some that we don't always have a great handle on, at least on an individual year's timescale. Many of the other variables are piling against warm sea surface temperatures.
It really is a mystery that this season isn't living up to the hype and what is seemly favorable conditions (correct me if I'm wrong). This stuff is also why I love meteorology as you're always trying to figure out the atmosphere, who are throwing all kind of pitches at you. Seem like Mother Nature learn a new pitch to throw at us.
Quoting 1273. HoraceDebussyJones:


I am not sure why I get on this blog every day when there is no apparent storm threat, however, I need to see what's on the sideboard, what Dexter is doing and how many times CaribBoy can say boring. Most of all, I truly enjoy all of the comments, knowledge and sense of humor Gro brings to this community.

Gro, I would ask you to stay on as long as possible, perhaps selfishly, since without you these discussions would lose a lot of their soul.



Gro has the amazing talent of being able to be funny and poke fun while not being rude. I honestly don't know how he does it, maybe because so many people respect him here. Im just worried that If he decides to leave that the tension cutting humor that he does so well will be gone and this place will have to be abandoned.
Quoting 1284. islander101010:
its good to see twc bringing it to the table this yr. they need a storm .

I couldn't believe it... last night they actually had to break in to "Coast Guard: Alaska" and "Why Planes Crash" to briefly talk about that tornado warning in Minnesota!
1290. K8eCane
Its a sad situation when Gro leaves
These shoes are now in store for $250. I love the shoe, but not at that price. Seriously, why are shoes even that high anyway?



The other two shoes is coming soon:



EDIT: The shoe on the very far right is $250. The middle shoe is $135. The left one will be released later this month.
We should be able to 3D Print our shoes soon.
The storp pixels are cool.
Gro,

I have enjoyed your finely-tuned wit and your wisdom of the ages as well. You have a depth of knowledge and insight that many can only hope to achieve.

If this task of blogging on WU is now checked off your bucket list and you are moving on to another item, please remember that those of us who read your posts and smiled or who gained a new perspective from them have also felt admiration and respect for you, sir.

Live long and prosper, Gro.
1294. GatorWX
Quoting 1291. Bluestorm5:
These shoes are now in store for $250. I love the shoe, but not at that price. Seriously, why are shoes even that high anyway?



The other two shoes is coming soon:



Demand??
Some showers are developing to my northwest. They might bring me some rain over the next couple hours. Since there are no cyclones to track, I'll be tracking these local storms. Some of them can put out some strong wind gusts depending on how tall they get. We will see what they bring to my area.
1296. GatorWX
Everyone that posted kind words towards Grothar, thanks. It made me feel good knowing I'm here with you all. Nice to see that stuff! Respect, One Love!
1297. Xandtar
Quoting 1266. OviedoWatcher:


Gro

As a long term lurker (pre-Katrina despite my apparent join date), I can say that there are people on here that eppreciate your comments and your humor and read them in their entirity, even if we don't say much in return. I am an engineer, not a met by training, so I prefer not to provide my 'expert opinion' on what is going on. There are a number of contributors to this blog who are less than civil, but many decent people who appreciate your comments too. Keep up the comments and remember that your 'fans' are backing you ;-)


This.

If you're not back, please know that I have learned much from your insight over the years, though I don't pretend to be anything more than an interested amateur. Thank you for all you've done for the silent majority here. You will not be forgotten.
Quoting 1291. Bluestorm5:
These shoes are now in store for $250. I love the shoe, but not at that price. Seriously, why are shoes even that high anyway?



The other two shoes is coming soon:



I thought they didnt come out till december?
They're at footlocker right?
I also heard someone made customized nike elites socks to wear witht them...but they're very expensive (custom made)

I see we have the orange circle.....

Stateside wx is still quiet
At least football is back....till the wx wakes up.
1299. barbamz
Fresh BBC-weather video, starting with a report about unusual strong, devastating in some cases deadly rainfalls in Mali; the following metereological explanations should be known to most of our bloggers. And BTW, Ben Rich still holds on to the numbers of an (future) above average hurricane season (lol?).

From heavy rain to Hurricane
BBC weather video, 30 August 2013 Last updated at 14:45
Ben Rich explains how the recent rainfall in Mali could lead to increased Tropical storm activity across North America and the Caribbean.

Where Mali is situated (map from wiki):
Quoting 1298. GeorgiaStormz:


I thought they didnt come out till december?
They're at footlocker right?
I also heard someone made customized nike elites socks to wear witht them...but they're very expensive (custom made)

I see we have the orange circle.....

Stateside wx is still quiet
At least football is back....till the wx wakes up.


Well, this news article said otherwise. Maybe I'll get $135 one to put on display...

Washington Post on shoes
the latest Nam is showing something suspicious at 84 hours. I cannot post it as I am on my phone.
1302. GatorWX
Quoting 1300. Bluestorm5:


Well, this news article said otherwise. Maybe I'll get $135 one to put on display...

Washington Post on shoes


Those are cool, I couldn't find them on Nike's site.
I, too, have been here much longer than my membership date implies. Although I don't talk much (I'm basically just a lurker), I'm glad I signed up recently so that I can speak when I feel the need. And right now I want to encourage Gro to do what's best for him, and Godspeed.

Just like the active chatters, though, there are probably lots of other nonentities like me who would miss his input.
Been on the sidelines many years but one of the main reasons I come on here is for gros wisdom with out him blog will never b the same
1305. GatorWX
Quoting 1301. unknowncomic:
the latest Nam is showing something suspicious at 84 hours. I cannot post it as I am on my phone.


This what you're referring to?

1306. GatorWX
1307. barbamz
Quoting 1302. GatorWX:


Those are cool, I couldn't find them on Nike's site.


Gator, I've read back that you're going to visit Europe for the first time. Welcome :) May I ask - just out of curiosity - if you plan to stay just in Spain or travel around?
Quoting 1300. Bluestorm5:


Well, this news article said otherwise. Maybe I'll get $135 one to put on display...

Washington Post on shoes


Yeah they are out.
I was gonna buy them, but 250 is a lot.
The middle one for 135 isnt one i would wear.
Maybe if it's still around by christmas :P

Quoting 1302. GatorWX:


Those are cool, I couldn't find them on Nike's site.



try Footlocker

Quoting 1305. GatorWX:


This what you're referring to?



Probably this





But it is the NAM, not good at TC Genesis. Note it was not even mentioned in the Doc's post above.
Here's what the NAM has been hinting at for a couple days.
March 11, 2013 (3 Palmas, Rincon, PR).... Counting the days for the next surf season....

1313. GatorWX
Quoting 1307. barbamz:


Gator, I've read back that you're going to visit Europe for the first time. Welcome :) May I ask - just out of curiosity - if you plan to stay just in Spain or travel around?


I think we may rent a car for a day and venture into Southern France. She's pretty keen on sticking around and seeing all we can in Barcelona and doesn't seem overly interested in taking the "cheaper" trains. We don't have that much money. She's actually Russian. I met her in NY when I worked up there in '08. We've stayed close over the years, although I haven't actually seen her since. It should be quite a nice trip.

Any suggestions?
Grothar, I have read what you wrote and I for one really wish you wouldn't leave. I sit every morning with my first, second cup of coffee and read what you write and what everyone has to say first thing in the morning and wait for the sideboard for breakfast. I joined WU and have talked with many of you on here but a lot of times I just lurk and when I ask a ? like the other day you answered it. So please don't leave, you will be dearly missed and we need you here. You are very liked and loved her by many. So please rethink this crazy thought your having. You bring a lot of laughter and humor to the blog and a lot of good facts.

Your friend,
sheri
Quoting 1310. nrtiwlnvragn:


Probably this





But it is the NAM, not good at TC Genesis. Note it was not even mentioned in the Doc's post above.


Beat me to it. I posted this late yesterday.
But as we know, the NAM isn't to be trusted when it comes to TC Genesis.
But the NAM does get it right occasionally.
1316. GatorWX
Quoting 1311. Sfloridacat5:
Here's what the NAM has been hinting at for a couple days.


Ahhh, I always thought the set of graphics for the continent were the only ones for NAM. Never clicked NAM first to see what regions were available. Now I know and I thank ya.
Quoting 1312. sunlinepr:
March 11, 2013 (3 Palmas, Rincon, PR).... Counting the days for the next surf season....



That spot is ridiculous when its on. Need to be on you game.
The biggest clean surf I've ever riden was in Baha Mexico during a high surf advisory. Solid 15ft and clean. The drop and bottom turn was scary. Once you made the drop it wasn't that bad. But that drop separated the men from the boys.
A couple of my buddies got slammed on their first drop and sat on the beach the rest of the day. lol
1318. GatorWX
Quoting 1316. GatorWX:


Ahhh, I always thought the set of graphics for the continent were the only ones for NAM. Never clicked NAM first to see what regions were available. Now I know and I thank ya.


Meant to quote 1310.
Quoting 1310. nrtiwlnvragn:


Probably this





But it is the NAM, not good at TC Genesis. Note it was not even mentioned in the Doc's post above.
I seen it be right before.anyway there's not much else happening but that could be something there in the Carribean about to explode.
1320. GatorWX
Quoting 1312. sunlinepr:
March 11, 2013 (3 Palmas, Rincon, PR).... Counting the days for the next surf season....



Probably the best warm area in the Atlantic. Beautiful photo!
1321. TXEER
Quoting 1313. GatorWX:


I think we may rent a car for a day and venture into Southern France. She's pretty keen on sticking around and seeing all we can in Barcelona and doesn't seem overly interested in taking the "cheaper" trains. We don't have that much money. She's actually Russian. I met her in NY when I worked up there in '08. We've stayed close over the years, although I haven't actually seen her since. It should be quite a nice trip.

Any suggestions?


Yes...take the train from Barcelona to Arles or Avignon and rent a car.

Lot of history, lot of great hill towns and of course GREAT WINE!!
1322. GatorWX
Oy! Glad I hung out here instead of taking out the kayak. Maybe this afternoon.

Quoting 1317. Sfloridacat5:


That spot is ridiculous when its on. Need to be on you game.
The biggest clean surf I've ever riden was in Baha Mexico during a high surf advisory. Solid 15ft and clean. The drop and bottom turn was scary. Once you made the drop it wasn't that bad. But that drop separated the men from the boys.
A couple of my buddies got slammed on their first drop and sat on the beach the rest of the day. lol


Even Steve Fitzpatrick doing photograps from the outside experienced the fury of that wave....

1999 photo by him

the nam only goes 84 hours and why would the NCEP include it in with the GFS if it was no use.
1325. GatorWX
Quoting 1321. TXEER:


Yes...take the train from Barcelona to Arles or Avignon and rent a car.

Lot of history, lot of great hill towns and of course GREAT WINE!!


Cool, thanks. Love wine lol! Tried my first Spanish wine the other day, 2009 Las Rocas Garnacha.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1327. TXEER
Quoting 1325. GatorWX:


Cool, thanks. Love wine lol! Tried my first Spanish wine the other day, 2009 Las Rocas Garnacha.


Check the map and you will see a small walled city called Carcassonne which is also worth a visit. It's just over the border from Spain and sits in the shadows of the Pyrenees and is worth the visit. Arles is an old Roman city with and amphitheater and coliseum which is still used for bull fights.
1328. barbamz
Quoting 1313. GatorWX:


I think we may rent a car for a day and venture into Southern France. She's pretty keen on sticking around and seeing all we can in Barcelona and doesn't seem overly interested in taking the "cheaper" trains. We don't have that much money. She's actually Russian. I met her in NY when I worked up there, stayed close over the years, although I haven't actually seen her since. It should be quite a nice trip.

Any suggestions?


Well, I think it's a good idea to stick to one location and get familiar with it (the more when it has to offer such a lot of interesting places as Barcelona), better than hopping over whole Europe from one "must have seen" to the other.
If you venture out a bit:

A very interesting destination nearby is Mount Monserrat:



And when you drive up the coast into France by car you'll find such a lot of places with overwhelming landscape and very picturesque old villages and monasteries in the Roussillon region just beyond the border that you won't have to drive much further to spend all the days of your trip.

And if you have a chance, visit Carcassone with its amazing medieval fortifications:



I've been in this region for vacation many years ago when I still was a poor student and I still like to think back and remember.

Sorry, for this little excursion off topic, fellow bloggers. I always like to look at the development of weather in regions where friends are staying for their vacations, and will follow Gators weather fate in Spain, coming mid September, especially closely, lol. :)

Anyway, new blog, lol. As always when I've pulled together a post.
S-l-o-w weather, huh?
Well, maybe can have some trivia time about that VERY persistent Low off the tip of Florida, then.

Have ANY TS's or hurricanes ever developed out of an ULL, and if so, does anyone have any idea as to the number, which ones, severity, etc.?

Hey, at least this is on-topic and might alleviate some of the recent tendency towards bickering on this blog, (...unless ULL's are a discreet govt weather-manipulating conspiracy.)
:)) -- (Hey, it's Friday.)
1330. 7544
Quoting 1311. Sfloridacat5:
Here's what the NAM has been hinting at for a couple days.


hi isnt this what the miami nws thaat was posted a page back noted wouldnt the high makes this one go wnw tia
Quoting 1241. Grothar:
Look, I haven't mentioned it, but I probably don't have much time left. The few people on the blog who actually know me in person, already know this. I am the last one to play the sympathy card or I would have done it a long time ago.

I am not supposed to have any stress and lately that is all there is. It is a shame, because you all have to know I would not be here at all if I wasn't genuinely fond of each of you as I have mentioned many times before. My family is away quite a bit and I led a very active life. Being here and getting to know you has been a pleasure. You have uplifted me more than you will ever know. But I think it is time to retire, even for a little while. I'm not saying I won't drop in and say hello. I just don't want an argument about it.


I, personally, will miss your wit and insight. Take care of yourself.

Jason
Quoting 1291. Bluestorm5:
These shoes are now in store for $250. I love the shoe, but not at that price. Seriously, why are shoes even that high anyway?



The other two shoes is coming soon:



EDIT: The shoe on the very far right is $250. The middle shoe is $135. The left one will be released later this month.


Rock climbing shoes!
Quoting 1210. Xyrus2000:


The last I checked, the IPCC and EPA don't do weather forecasting.

The EPA? Really? Bastardi must be losing his mind or something. Or gunning for a political commentary position on Fox News.
I believe the former is prerequisite to the latter. ;-)
1334. hydrus
Quoting 1333. Neapolitan:
I believe the former is prerequisite to the latter. ;-)
Lol..He would fit in ridiculously well....some things were just meant to go together..
there is no where in the world better for giant surf than the north shore of hawaii. sunset bch pipeline waimea bay and makaha on oahu, jaws on maui, and hanalei bay in kauai. medium size was my favorite early 80s 85 surfed rockey pt gas chanbers and kahukus when the wind blew kona. at sunset bch big day got caught on a giant west set lost the board and had to swim into the giant breakers getting crushed in order not to get caught in enornus riptides. lifeguards back then were rarely seen. it got to be had to be scared for the full satisfaction.