WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting TheDawnAwakening:


How could you say Gaston does not have the ability to strengthen? You can't say until he has totally favorable conditions. We all know dry air is inhibiting any significant development. But to say he does not have the ability is outrageous and comical.



Gaston hasn't developed convection throughout its life time, that would equal an afternoon sea breeze convective flare up in Florida, how much more ridiculous then would it to be to consider a model which attains it to category 5 intensity.


Keep in mind, Physics do just not support Gaston becoming anything significant right now.

I did mention nothing is impossible, but the chances are quite minute indeed. Therefore, Gaston should not be worried about.

The atmosphere would have to change radically throughout Ex-Gaston for it to have a chance at significant development into a strong hurricane. The chance of this happening, is very very low.

Not only is moisture lacking, but lapse rates are extremely weak around it, and overall instability just plain sucks.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Link?


Link
Quoting markot:
look t 13:45 satt. photo gaston is blowing up....


WVLoop


At ~56-57W
LoL.

Hermine had a radar estimated 123kts flight level wind gust a few minutes ago...
Quoting IKE:


I was going to say...looks headed for the coast.


Yep, could be good news because she wants to strengthen!
Interesting.

This has hurricane watches up.

Quoting StormW:


Not quite. Go back and research a negative NAO.


Storm there's really no chance atleast in my take of things anything makes the trek across and seriously threatens the mainland.

The high is much weaker this year
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I see a possible Jeanne,and Ivan trio setting up.So far this season has almost been like 04 in a way,and we're using the same list!
2511. Hhunter
bastardi concerned about rapid feedback effect HURRICANE!

MONDAY 9 AM
IS RAPID FEEDBACK SYNDROME A PROBLEM WITH HERMINE.

I wont know till I can see the recon, which given the situation that has been apparent since Friday and Saturday.. the chance for mischief here, should have been in there before this. But this is expanding quickly and the chance for an Humberto like event is in the cards. Lets remember Alex exploded in here and though recent storms ( Dolly and Alex) were in my opinion under valued by the Saffir Simpson scale, the chance of this become a hurricane is growing with each step north its taking. Posts both here, and on the twitter I do, have been stating a worry about this for a while.

South Texas, and in fact as far north as the coastal bend should be aware that this could wind up fast in your back hard. Hurricane watches may be needed once we see what the recon says.

thanks for reading, ciao for now ****

MONDAY 7 AM

2512. markot
hurricane 23, why do you say things that are totally against all the facts...gaston is starting to blow up look at 1345 photos....
2513. Patrap
For anyone who hasn't seen it already...

Hermine is up to 50 mph w/ a 998mb pressure.

AL, 10, 2010090612, , BEST, 0, 226N, 954W, 45, 998,
Quoting KanKunKid:


There are some interesting conditions in the Caribbean right now and the Sea is very, very warm. I believe we are all adults here with a pretty good grasp of how hurricanes form, so I would hope that you can give us the dignity of deciding what we ourselves will get excited about.



This is a weather blog, and everyone is free to give their opinion. I was not trying to take anyone's "dignity" away. Just stating my own opinion. You guys are free to give yours, and I'm free to give mine, please don't take things personal.
2517. Patrap
2518. Vero1
Quoting PELLSPROG:
Virginie vir-JIN-ee !!!!!!!!! Who has a name like this ??
It's a state isn't it?
...HERMINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

10:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 6
Location: 23.4°N 95.8°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
2521. IKE
...
Yup, the hurricane watches have come.
"...DUE TO THE LIMITATIONS IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
CHANGE...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
COAST TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY THAT HERMINE COULD STRENGTHEN
MORE THAN EXPECTED."
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
For anyone who hasn't seen it already...

Hermine is up to 50 mph w/ a 998mb pressure.

AL, 10, 2010090612, , BEST, 0, 226N, 954W, 45, 998,


That Hurricane Watch is there for a reason. Guess S Texas may be in for a gusty surprise this labor day.
Quoting Vero1:
It's a state isn't it?

Im pretty sure that state is VirginIA...lol
I think they combined virgin with virginia and popped out a name... are they getting that desperate?
I see people aren't as worry about Gaston as before....
2527. Patrap
lets not get to excited hermine will be over water only about another 8-10 hours...
Quoting washingtonian115:
I see people aren't as worry about Gaston as before....

I dont think its that, We are just watching Hermine also... a little closer to home for most of us.
2530. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
...HERMINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

10:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 6
Location: 23.4N 95.8W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb


Moved 1.0N and .5W again in 3 hours. Landfall will be sooner than first thought.
Cyclone OZ is on his way to Brownsville!

Looks like Hermine wants to become a hurricane.

Are there any GRIP planes scheduled to be in it?

Let's see:

1am: LOCATION...20.9N 95.0W
4am: LOCATION...21.6N 95.0W
7am: LOCATION...22.4N 95.3W
10am: LOCATION...23.4N 95.8W

At that rate, it's going to be close to 24.5N by 2pm.

Hermine could make landfall by 5pm this evening.
Hurricane watches issue
Quoting alaina1085:

Im pretty sure that state is VirginIA...lol
I think they combined virgin with virginia and popped out a name... are they getting that desperate?



Or they just got bored and decided to put a little ole southern draw into the spelling of virginia, lol.
looks like Hermine has been underestimated.The NHC knows what their dealing with when it comes to systems like these.....
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. HERMINE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STORM MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

Good news for potential flood threat to S Tx/N Mex
HH into HerMean


2539. Patrap
000
WTNT35 KNHC 061431
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

...HERMINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 95.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM RIO SAN
FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE...AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE NORTHWARD TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO PORT
OCONNOR.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTH OF LA CRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
Quoting IKE:


Moved .8N and .4W again in 3 hours. Landfall will be sooner than first thought.


Definitely.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. HERMINE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STORM MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ON
E AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

INITIAL 06/1500Z 23.4N 95.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 24.9N 96.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 27.0N 98.3W 55 KT...INLAND

Unless it slows down some, there's no way it's still going to be over water in 12 hours.

At current speeds, more like 6.

Landfall could be a bit at 5pm imo.
cyclone oz will never make it in time this storm will be over by the time oz arrives...a waste of time..
2546. Patrap
2547. IKE
Landfall should be this evening...by midnight.
Quoting Cotillion:
INITIAL 06/1500Z 23.4N 95.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 24.9N 96.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 27.0N 98.3W 55 KT...INLAND

Unless it slows down some, there's no way it's still going to be over water in 12 hours.

At current speeds, more like 6.



I agree....coordinates on their track look a little slow.
I would agree with Cotillion 5-7 pm could be around the time it could make landfall.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Gaston hasn't developed convection throughout its life time, that would equal an afternoon sea breeze convective flare up in Florida, how much more ridiculous then would it to be to consider a model which attains it to category 5 intensity.


Keep in mind, Physics do just not support Gaston becoming anything significant right now.

I did mention nothing is impossible, but the chances are quite minute indeed. Therefore, Gaston should not be worried about.

The atmosphere would have to change radically throughout Ex-Gaston for it to have a chance at significant development into a strong hurricane. The chance of this happening, is very very low.

Not only is moisture lacking, but lapse rates are extremely weak around it, and overall instability just plain sucks.


You have got to remember, that the only part of your statement I had a problem with is the fact that you said he does not have the ability to be a significant threat. That statement is bogus. Right now you are right because something called dry air is inhibiting development. Dry air equals, no instability present and weak lapse rates. As moisture increases so does the instability present as well as lapse rates. Higher dew point air to the west allows for greater instability and therefore you get your low level lapse rates. Remember hurricanes/tropical storms are different beasts then a land induced thunderstorm. They do not rely so much on the need for updrafts. Low level circulations offer weaker updrafts and therefore are not as intense as land based MCCs. Wind shear is favorable for land based storms, while is a major detriment on tropical cyclones. So lapse rates have a greater affect on land based thunderstorms as they aid in the downdraft of intense wind gusts and the updraft potential of thunderstorms over land. Again moist lapse rates allow moisture to become involved, but moisture has to be present in order for lapse rates to be favorable, so all of his problems come from the lack of moisture or dry air.
Hermine will probably hit at 11 pm tonight.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


I'm glad to hear that, KanKunKid. I remember my trips years ago into Mexico and the poverty in some places... I guess I just thought some places that are more remote might not know. With all the heartache they had already, it's sad to hear they will most likely have more.


Well, I just was down through the areas hit by Alex. They bounce back pretty good. The infrastructure isn't as complex. I was surprised at the proliferation of satellite TV in the most remote and humble "colonias". They get a break, it's very cheap. People here are addicted to TV and futbol (soccer).

As far as planning? When you can put everything you own on the back of a bicycle, in a box, you can evacuate easily. They are very family oriented and look out for each other, even other families, the hospitable attitude makes for an easier situation. If you are lacking the necessities of life, they are more than ready to share what they have. I am of course referring to the more poverty stricken folk. The wealthier subscribe to the "I got mine club" and look out for themselves pretty good. Although in a better position to help during times of need, they are quite selfish.
Even though there is much poverty, everything but food is actually more expensive. The legal system sucks and many of the police are corrupt. Other than that, it's not a bad place.
Quoting StormW:


???
By people on the blog.
2554. Hhunter
Quoting Jedkins01:



Or they just got bored and decided to put a little ole southern draw into the spelling of virginia, lol.


Since not everyone in the Atlantic basin speaks English, they like to throw some French & Spanish names out there. French is for Haiti, and a few of the Lesser Antilles that were French colonies. And Virginie (VEER - zhee - NEE) is French for "Virginia".
2556. markot
storm have you seen latest pics of gaston...
Quoting IKE:
Landfall should be this evening...by midnight.

I agree....coordinates on their track look a little slow.


Yeah that has me perplexed at the 11AM advisory. Oh well. I guess we will have a better idea when the HH get in there.
5-7 pm seems a little early for landfall...some of that "motion" was a re-positioning of the center...but 11p-2a seems reasonable.
160 knots or 19.

Thats quite a spread.

Quoting dan77539:


Since not everyone in the Atlantic basin speaks English, they like to throw some French & Spanish names out there. French is for Haiti, and a few of the Lesser Antilles that were French colonies. And Virginie (VEER - zhee - NEE) is French for "Virginia".


Don't forget about LA people of French origin there.
good job weather guy you nailed this one...props to you on this...you called it..
No offence,and some of you may put me on ignore,but trying to watch Gaston redevelope has been like trying to watch paint dry on a wall.Just saying.....
2563. Kibkaos
Quoting Hhunter:


Hermine is growing quickly. I am down here in Brazoria County South of Houston and the clouds and rain are rolling in.
Quoting markot:
storm have you seen latest pics of gaston...


today may be gaston's day.
Quoting ElConando:


Don't forget about LA people of French origin there.


Anyway, here's hoping we never get to "V" anyway.
Quoting dan77539:
5-7 pm seems a little early for landfall...some of that "motion" was a re-positioning of the center...but 11p-2a seems reasonable.


We shall see.
i agree RIP GASTON
Hermine looks like he wants to become a hurricane before making landfall. He just might make it too.


When is Gaston projected to be at around 60W???

Just curious, as that is StormW's benchmark to know more about what Gaston is gonna do.
Does anyone know the conversion between 10-min sustained winds and 1-min?
Quoting dan77539:


Anyway, here's hoping we never get to "V" anyway.


Here, here!
Nailed this one?


It ain't over till its over.
It looks like the models begin intensifying Gaston in another 24 hours or so, with some more rapid then others.
RE: Gaston from the NHC 8:00 discussion -


Upper level winds are expected to become more conducive for development over the
next day or so and the moisture surrounding the low should
gradually increase as it moves W at 10-15 kt. There is a high
chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone again during
the next 48 hours. Heavy rains and gusty winds could begin to
affect portions of the Leeward Islands late today and tonight.

CHICKLIT EVERYDAY IS GASTONS DAY LOL
Quoting CajunTexan:
Hermine looks like he wants to become a hurricane before making landfall. He just might make it too.


When is Gaston projected to be at around 60W???

Just curious, as that is StormW's benchmark to know more about what Gaston is gonna do.
Uh yeah Hermine is a she...
2577. Hhunter
14:46:00Z 26.183N 92.817W 392.5 mb
(~ 11.59 inHg) 7,760 meters
(~ 25,459 feet) - 438 meters
(~ 1,437 feet) From 150° at 11 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 12.6 mph) -15.0°C
(~ 5.0°F) -16.0°C
(~ 3.2°F) 12 knots
(~ 13.8 mph

recon flying in...
Not looking so hot.

Quoting TheDawnAwakening:


You have got to remember, that the only part of your statement I had a problem with is the fact that you said he does not have the ability to be a significant threat. That statement is bogus. Right now you are right because something called dry air is inhibiting development. Dry air equals, no instability present and weak lapse rates. As moisture increases so does the instability present as well as lapse rates. Higher dew point air to the west allows for greater instability and therefore you get your low level lapse rates. Remember hurricanes/tropical storms are different beasts then a land induced thunderstorm. They do not rely so much on the need for updrafts. Low level circulations offer weaker updrafts and therefore are not as intense as land based MCCs. Wind shear is favorable for land based storms, while is a major detriment on tropical cyclones. So lapse rates have a greater affect on land based thunderstorms as they aid in the downdraft of intense wind gusts and the updraft potential of thunderstorms over land. Again moist lapse rates allow moisture to become involved, but moisture has to be present in order for lapse rates to be favorable, so all of his problems come from the lack of moisture or dry air.




I see what you're saying, but I said that right now Gaston doesn't have the chance, and that overall, the chances of Gaston having all the right conditions coming back together to injectit with potential is quite low.

The NHC is giving it a high chance of development, but I am sure they are on board with me about the chances of it becoming a major hurricane are very, very slim.
Quoting CajunTexan:
Hermine looks like he wants to become a hurricane before making landfall. He just might make it too.


When is Gaston projected to be at around 60W???

Just curious, as that is StormW's benchmark to know more about what Gaston is gonna do.


Hermine's a gal there hoss.
Igor is not Spanish, French, or English. Slavic in nature.

They've sort of grown beyond those restrictions in years as more and more names are retired.
2582. Hhunter
weather in central texas getting worse ..we just had some rain..in south texas ..family is preparing...
2584. Patrap
O Lordy..

LOL
i was looking at he gfs maps for next tuesday when whatever gaston will be. evidently the front that comes thru this weekend is lifting out.per posted image. now the question is will it plow thru CA or mexico? or a bit like opal stalls a bit and waits for the next trof/front.
it was only a few days ago that gaston was going to be a fish.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Uh yeah Hermine is a she...



Really??? That's all you focused on in the entire comment? He/She/It looks like it wants to be a Hurricane to me before making landfall. Any comment on the subject or no?
and move on.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Not looking so hot.



Who was the person who said "Now just watch Gaston fall apart during DMAX lol"? Now I know it hasn't completely fallen apart, but it is more disorganized than it was at DMIN yesterday. Even though it was a joke, props to whoever said that lol.
Incredible how Hermine is developing !!!!!

the low near the Antilles looks like crap.
2590. Patrap
I'm wondering how close it'll be to 24.5N, 96.4W by next advisory.
Whoops... looks like RECON may have mechanical problems. They just turned around.

RATS!
Quoting Patrap:


Thanks for posting that.
2595. Hhunter
2596. markot
gaston is blowing up....getting bigger xstronger.....
Hate to bust your bubble Jed, but Gaston is taking off.
Someone had their cereal with extra sugar this morning...
2599. hydrus
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Incredible how Hermine is developing !!!!!

the low near the Antilles looks like crap.
Hermine showing Intense convection near its center. Those greens are the top of the scale babeeeee..lol
Quoting hurristat:
Does anyone know the conversion between 10-min sustained winds and 1-min?


Link
Quoting Chicklit:
Hate to bust your bubble Jed, but Gaston is taking off.


Agreed.
Quoting itrackstorms:
Looks like RECON may have mechanical problems. They just turned around.


Looks like they are heading home.



Quoting markot:
gaston is blowing up....getting bigger xstronger.....


Are you talking about Hermine?

ex-Gaston isn't really doing much of anything.

Quoting ozzyman236:
WEATHERGUY WAS THE ONE THAT SAID GASTON WOULD FALL APART..NICE JOB BOB..


next to your "a" key
2608. Patrap
Looks like Recon is heading home.

2610. Hhunter


we have a problem her..dvorak...
2611. PR51
well, right now Gaston is dead, fully and completely dead. Let him RIP.
Quoting Chicklit:


today may be gaston's day.


People on here were just saying Gaston RIP an hour ago??? It's looking better I take it now.
Quoting hurristat:
Does anyone know the conversion between 10-min sustained winds and 1-min?



GUIDELINES FOR CONVERTING BETWEEN VARIOUS WIND AVERAGING PERIODS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITIONS
Quoting PR51:
well, right now Gaston is dead, fully and completely dead. Let him RIP.


Not 'dead' until that little LLC dissipates.
Very impressive. Depending on how much time it has over water is the deciding factor on whether or not it becomes a hurricane.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like Recon is heading home.



Must have had a problem.
where is recon heading??? Did they forgot to pack there lunch??
Quoting StormW:


You're funny!


Ha Storm! You'd think they'd get tired now and then.
2622. hydrus
Gaston looks frail at the moment. But it is in this area were they seem to pull it together.
2623. Patrap
Some where a curtain rod is bent, ..westward.
2624. markot
stormchaser, hurricane 23 neither of you know what yur talking about, gaston is getting bigger better organized, plz get real ok.....
2625. Hhunter
Well Miami, we kinda saw this coming last night when the pressure went all kinds of crazy ;)
Frankly, I'm a bit weary of these systems with a penchant for defying odds. Gaston has been a fighter from the time in entered the Atlantic. It's consistently fought dry air, shear and doubt about its development. These "thorns" have a tendency to sometimes eventually getting their way, causing trouble for someone, somewhere.

I think we have to consider the basic conditions available, the storm's attributes, future possibilities:

1. closed LLC
2. vigorous circulation
3. 30 degree temps
4. diminishing dry air
5. lower shear approaching
6. generating convection
7. moderate forward speed 10-15 kts
8. westerly motion
9. unfettered tropical waters ahead with high TCHP
10. model support


Writing this system off yet would be remiss.
Me thinks there's some confusion here...

HERMINE




EX-GASTON

Pensacola Doug-do you know what time Oz is estimated to be in Brownsville?
Quoting Kristina40:
Well Miami, we kinda saw this coming last night when the pressure went all kinds of crazy ;)
Lol, yeah. The pressure was quite low so the winds were going to eventually catch up.
Quoting fllamorgan:


People on here were just saying Gaston RIP an hour ago??? It's looking better I take it now.

yup

MoonlightCowboy = voice of reason
Quoting markot:
stormchaser, hurricane 23 neither of you know what yur talking about, gaston is getting bigger better organized, plz get real ok.....


You must have a very loose definition of "getting better organized".

Gaston is NOT dead.
One interesting thing that I've noticed is that it seems like Gaston, as he moves forward, seems to draw the dry air in behind him? Is this possible or am I making stuff up?
Quoting KanKunKid:


Yes, I'm sure the NHC is on board with you.



LOL!
2638. Patrap
One never discounts a closed circ in the Tropical Atlantic,,esp with conducive conditions downstream in time with model support.


Tropical Met 101
2639. Hhunter
Quoting Chicklit:

yup



like i said rip or cat 4 in 4 days..maybe more toward the later...
2640. Thaale
Quoting TXCaneCrasher:


haha....cleaned this discussion up pretty quick....

IMO the official pronunciation guide just added to the confusion. It says e-GOR, which I would have assumed means long E. But then a little below it is has Lisa as LEE-sa, using double E to denote long E and suggesting e-GOR is pronounced eh-GOR, though as it's an unstressed sylalble I guess the point is that it's a schwa.

In any case, since when is Igor by any pronunciation a common name in any of the cultures / languages of the Atlantic basic, which I thought was the rule they went by? It's not common in American or Canadian English. Is it popular in any of the French speaking locales in the region? I don't think so. The Spanish speaking ones? I've lived in Miami for decades I've and never met or heard of any Igor who wasn't Russian or Ukrainian.

Next year they're pulling out Katia, which I would also have thought was more common in Eastern Europe than in Atlantic hurricane country, and is usually pronounced KAH-tcha. But they have come up with ka-TEE-ah. Who the heck is named ka-TEE-ah, anywhere? Where do they come up with this stuff?
Impressive

2643. JeffM
Hermine should be a good indicator of just how bad it's going to be if Gaston or any other system eventually gets into the Gulf.

As far as Hermine, we in the San Antonio/Austin area or eagerly awaiting some much needed rainfall.
Any idea when Gaston is forecast to reach 60W??
Exactly Patrap! Glad to see you back, was worried about you after you said you had the concussion and then I didn't see you for a couple days. Glad you are OK.
Gaston should not be considered dead until that LLC dissipates.


2647. markot
no, you dont know anyting about weather.....
Hermine only 8 mbs from a cane. I saw a model that projects a low a-la Gaston S of Cuba by 9/12??
Quoting CajunTexan:
Any idea when Gaston is forecast to reach 60W??

It's moving west about 10-15 knots.
2650. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Gaston
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Quoting hydrus:
Gaston looks frail at the moment. But it is in this area were they seem to pull it together.
Yep. Once he gets on the other side of the lesser antilles, he might be a bigger deal.
Hermine is currently situated over a sub-880mb greater-160kts max intensity predictor.


Thankfully, if the trend continues, she will almost certainly move over shore long before becoming anything more than a cat1.
2654. Hhunter
So Recon had to head home, huh? The next one is scheduled for 2am EDT tomorrow morning. Meh.
2656. Patrap
Quoting Kristina40:
Exactly Patrap! Glad to see you back, was worried about you after you said you had the concussion and then I didn't see you for a couple days. Glad you are OK.


God graced me with a very Hard Head thankfully.

But the Stars were very colorful one could say.

Thanx
Update
HerMean is getting meaner.
Gaston is a lot of things.. dead isn't any of them.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
These sorts of conditions where models and model reliance will have trouble.

Speed was underestimated, a storm that wasn't even picked up by most except the GFS which had this going far slower than it is, and intensity underestimated. The nautical mile differential between prediction and reality is not so bad in the middle of the Atlantic, but confined between land, every difference could be huge.

Even with the correct information fed in, it would take 2-3 hours for it to be released. By which, the circumstances could have changed or the storm might have already made landfall, particularly in the case of the twice daily models.

Trust your eyes and your noggin.
Quoting markot:
no, you dont know anyting about weather.....


I know a Ting or 2. I know some Chans and some Kangs as well. What has that got to do with the whether?
2661. Patrap
Off to Lite da Grill..


Have a Good Holiday everyone.
Quoting markot:
knock off the rip stormchaser, hurricane 23, you 2 rip.

Never said he was dead.


Gaston should not be considered dead until that LLC dissipates.
Quoting StormW:


Thanks Pat.

For giggles and grins everyone, the DSHP intensity model is better at long range.


Did you see the CHIPS ensembles?

2666. Hhunter
15:06:00Z 27.333N 91.800W 392.5 mb
(~ 11.59 inHg) 7,755 meters
(~ 25,443 feet) - 439 meters
(~ 1,440 feet) From 134° at 15 knots
(From the SE at ~ 17.2 mph) -14.8°C*
(~ 5.4°F*) -* 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph)
Quoting Cotillion:
These sorts of conditions where models and model reliance will have trouble.

Speed was underestimated, a storm that wasn't even picked up by most except the GFS which had this going far slower than it is, and intensity underestimated. The nautical mile differential between prediction and reality is not so bad in the middle of the Atlantic, but confined between land, every difference could be huge.

Even with the correct information fed in, it would take 2-3 hours for it to be released. By which, the circumstances could have changed or the storm might have already made landfall, particularly in the case of the twice daily models.

Trust your eyes and your noggin.


Well said!
2668. luigi18
Quoting Chicklit:

yup

MoonlightCowboy = voice of reason

Even the agencies here in PR are saying gaston is going to bring rain if he is not already dead
Quoting Orcasystems:
Update
HerMean is getting meaner.
Gaston is a lot of things.. dead isn't any of them.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
She sure is. She's a rather large storm. TS force winds extend out to 100 miles or so.
2670. shawn26
Gaston is starting to get it's act together.
Quoting 850Realtor:
Pensacola Doug-do you know what time Oz is estimated to be in Brownsville?


He's gonna try to go live from Port Isabell at 5 am tomorrow morning.
1 knots = 1.15077945 miles per hour.

The following approximate distance calculations are relatively simple, but can produce distance errors of 10 percent of more. These approximate calculations are performed using latitude and longitude values in degrees. The first approximation requires only simple math functions:

Approximate distance in miles:

sqrt(x * x + y * y)

where x = 69.1 * (lat2 - lat1)
and y = 53.0 * (lon2 - lon1)

You can improve the accuracy of this approximate distance calculation by adding the cosine math function:

Improved approximate distance in miles:

sqrt(x * x + y * y)

help!
where x = 69.1 * (lat2 - lat1)
and y = 69.1 * (lon2 - lon1) * cos(lat1/57.3)


2673. HCW
Recon is having radar problems and headed home now
Quoting Patrap:
Off to Lite da Grill..


Have a Good Holiday everyone.

Thanks, you too, Pat!
Quoting stillwaiting:
Hmmmm,i wonder what oz is doing tomorrow????,word is he'll be live in port isabel,TX covering hermine ,you can email me and i'll give a link for those interested,junky'll be on soon with a update im sure:)


Whats with you guys... you know Dr Masters has permanently banned Oz, yet you insist on babbling about him on here and posted links to his website?

Respect is something some of you appear to have problems with.
12z SHIPS get ex-Gaston up to 112 knots.

V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 38 47 58 69 76 83 91 101 112

Shear drops to around 3 knots in 24 hours.
2679. SaoFeng
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/drmon.gif

Current drought index
2680. Bielle
Quoting alaina1085:

Hahahaha!!!


There has been an attempt to include not only male and female names on the hurricane lists, but also names from all the nations and cultures served by the NHC. French, Spanish and English are all there. I am surprised by the pronunciation given for "Virginie" as it is a French name more usually pronounced with a "zh" sound for the "g", like the "s" in "casual".


Hermine is a classic Tehuantepec cross-over storm that I had been predicting before the season and that the GFS model had depicted for a while. Likely to become the third tropical cyclone to make landfall near the US/Mexico border this season. Luckily this system is not expected to become a hurricane.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z SHIPS get ex-Gaston up to 112 knots.

V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 38 47 58 69 76 83 91 101 112

Shear drops to around 3 knots in 24 hours.
Yup. The mid-level dry air should slowly back off too, however, the environment won't be too moist for another 60 hours or so.

700-500 MB RH 41 40 41 41 45 48 49 55 57 59 56 55 53
Quoting Chicklit:
1 knots = 1.15077945 miles per hour.

The following approximate distance calculations are relatively simple, but can produce distance errors of 10 percent of more. These approximate calculations are performed using latitude and longitude values in degrees. The first approximation requires only simple math functions:

Approximate distance in miles:

sqrt(x * x + y * y)

where x = 69.1 * (lat2 - lat1)
and y = 53.0 * (lon2 - lon1)

You can improve the accuracy of this approximate distance calculation by adding the cosine math function:

Improved approximate distance in miles:

sqrt(x * x + y * y)

help!
where x = 69.1 * (lat2 - lat1)
and y = 69.1 * (lon2 - lon1) * cos(lat1/57.3)




So simple, even a cave man can do it!
Is Hermine still headed North? I'll readily admit that I am far from an expert to say the least, but it looks like she's headed more NW to me?
Quoting JeffM:
Hermine should be a good indicator of just how bad it's going to be if Gaston or any other system eventually gets into the Gulf.

As far as Hermine, we in the San Antonio/Austin area or eagerly awaiting some much needed rainfall.
Exactly. The gulf this time of the year is incredibly conducive for just about any system.
Quoting Chicklit:
1 knots = 1.15077945 miles per hour.

The following approximate distance calculations are relatively simple, but can produce distance errors of 10 percent of more. These approximate calculations are performed using latitude and longitude values in degrees. The first approximation requires only simple math functions:

Approximate distance in miles:

sqrt(x * x + y * y)

where x = 69.1 * (lat2 - lat1)
and y = 53.0 * (lon2 - lon1)

You can improve the accuracy of this approximate distance calculation by adding the cosine math function:

Improved approximate distance in miles:

sqrt(x * x + y * y)

help!
where x = 69.1 * (lat2 - lat1)
and y = 69.1 * (lon2 - lon1) * cos(lat1/57.3)




I WAS TOLD THERE WOULD BE NO MATH!!! ;)
Conversion to 10-min from 1-min: .93
Quoting Thaale:

IMO the official pronunciation guide just added to the confusion. It says e-GOR, which I would have assumed means long E. But then a little below it is has Lisa as LEE-sa, using double E to denote long E and suggesting e-GOR is pronounced eh-GOR, though as it's an unstressed sylalble I guess the point is that it's a schwa.

In any case, since when is Igor by any pronunciation a common name in any of the cultures / languages of the Atlantic basic, which I thought was the rule they went by? It's not common in American or Canadian English. Is it popular in any of the French speaking locales in the region? I don't think so. The Spanish speaking ones? I've lived in Miami for decades I've and never met or heard of any Igor who wasn't Russian or Ukrainian.

Next year they're pulling out Katia, which I would also have thought was more common in Eastern Europe than in Atlantic hurricane country, and is usually pronounced KAH-tcha. But they have come up with ka-TEE-ah. Who the heck is named ka-TEE-ah, anywhere? Where do they come up with this stuff?


Ka-TEE-uh pronounced that way--three syllables, with stress on the penultimate one--is one I've heard fairly often in South America. True, it seems to be more common in Brazil than elsewhere on the continent, but still...

You're right about the ambiguous nature of the NHC's own PG for Igor. I don't think the leading 'e' is a schwa, however, as the rest of the storm names use 'uh' to denote that sound (as in Katia above). I'd guess it's just a minor typo, and the the first syllable is indeed long: ee-GORE. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it...

P.S. -- I worked at an all-Cuban office in Miami for two years. Of the 55-60 people there, ten were male, and two of them were named Igor...
Quoting Thaale:

IMO the official pronunciation guide just added to the confusion. It says e-GOR, which I would have assumed means long E. But then a little below it is has Lisa as LEE-sa, using double E to denote long E and suggesting e-GOR is pronounced eh-GOR, though as it's an unstressed sylalble I guess the point is that it's a schwa.

In any case, since when is Igor by any pronunciation a common name in any of the cultures / languages of the Atlantic basic, which I thought was the rule they went by? It's not common in American or Canadian English. Is it popular in any of the French speaking locales in the region? I don't think so. The Spanish speaking ones? I've lived in Miami for decades I've and never met or heard of any Igor who wasn't Russian or Ukrainian.

Next year they're pulling out Katia, which I would also have thought was more common in Eastern Europe than in Atlantic hurricane country, and is usually pronounced KAH-tcha. But they have come up with ka-TEE-ah. Who the heck is named ka-TEE-ah, anywhere? Where do they come up with this stuff?
Igor is a common name in Puerto Rico, we have many Igors here and is pronounce as it is written of course with the Spanish Phoneme of the vowel...
Hermine is sure putting on a show!
Please don't take this the wrong way, but I have to ask the question as I have vacation coming up. Does it appear soon to be Gaston is a threat to Florida in the long-term at all? I can't seem to tell right now, but looks like it will go straight West through to the Yucatan. I am correct in this assumption?
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Hermine is a classic Tehuantepec cross-over storm that I had been predicting before the season and that the GFS model had depicted for a while. Likely to become the third tropical cyclone to make landfall near the US/Mexico border this season. Luckily this system is not expected to become a hurricane.

i believe it will be a 75-80 prior to landfall
Good Early Afternoon/Late Morning...

Hermine looks very impressive.

2696. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Yep. Once he gets on the other side of the lesser antilles, he might be a bigger deal.
If he organizes fast, he may go a little further north of what some of the models are showing. If in fact it remains weak and heads into the Caribbean Sea on a rough westward course, he could strengthen rapidly.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Whats with you guys... you know Dr Masters has permanently banned Oz, yet you insist on babbling about him on here and posted links to his website?

Respect is something some of you appear to have problems with.
......i posted no link,and earased my post after i saw doug already had it covered,i respect the doc 100%,just letting people know that tthey can view the tc live via a live stream,doc lost a realtime asset when he banned oz imo
Hermine has been sitting in the BOC for days getting her act together.

Gaston on the other has been moving quite briskly while dealing with dry air and wind shear.

2700. Dunkman
I don't understand this "model support" for Gaston. GFS, ECMWF, and HRWF don't develop it at all. The UKMET and GFDL may possibly have it as a TD in 5 days. I'll take those against whatever models develop him.
Recon turning around because of radar problems. Is there NO backup plan or is there just not a need to fly into Hermine?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Whats with you guys... you know Dr Masters has permanently banned Oz, yet you insist on babbling about him on here and posted links to his website?

Respect is something some of you appear to have problems with.


Orca,
While I respect your opinion, I think you are slightly overboard. People discuss JFV and he is banned. People discuss Stormtop and he has been banned 100 times. At least this guy brings out discussion of weather and not shower curtains.
Gaston is fighting some dry air...

2704. IKE
Maybe he needs premium unleaded.....

looks like im gonna pounded again
Quoting btwntx08:
looks like im gonna pounded again


Good luck! ;) Send us the videos and pictures! Wait... are you going to get hit by Hermine?
000
URNT11 KNHC 061505
92229 15034 21272 91909 73100 99005 6566/ /5762
RMK AF303 0110A HERMINE OB 04
LAST REPORT
2709. hydrus
Quoting btwntx08:
looks like im gonna pounded again
I,ll say.., That is one nasty lookin storm. If you are able, and have all your prep done, Keep us filled in with the latest obs.:)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Whats with you guys... you know Dr Masters has permanently banned Oz, yet you insist on babbling about him on here and posted links to his website?

Respect is something some of you appear to have problems with.


Goodness me, has the world of 1984 suddenly come true here?

If the Dr and Oz have problems, let them deal with it. Likewise let the rest of the group decide for themselves.

Censorship of the group has no place here.

If they want to make comments or point to websites, let them.

BTW the precipitable water animation shows Gaston as still having some life in him. He has as much spin a Colin for example.

Invest 90 ???


Quoting itrackstorms:
000
URNT11 KNHC 061505
92229 15034 21272 91909 73100 99005 6566/ /5762
RMK AF303 0110A HERMINE OB 04
LAST REPORT


Sadly, Hermine is probably stronger than 50 mph, and this is a perfect disaster for not warning people before-hand.
Quoting Snowlover123:


Good luck! ;) Send us the videos and pictures! Wait... are you going to get hit by Hermine?

yes
2713. Thaale
Quoting Neapolitan:


Ka-TEE-uh pronounced that way--three syllables, with stress on the penultimate one--is one I've heard fairly often in South America. True, it seems to be more common in Brazil than elsewhere on the continent, but still...

You're right about the ambiguous nature of the NHC's own PG for Igor. I don't think the leading 'e' is a schwa, however, as the rest of the storm names use 'uh' to denote that sound (as in Katia above). I'd guess it's just a minor typo, and the the first syllable is indeed long: ee-GORE. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it...

Thanks, I had never met or heard of a ka-TEE-ah. I still think they could do a better job of finding names with less ambiguity, though admittedly their task is complicated by the need to constantly come up with new ones due to retirement (we know who Katia replaces in the six-year cycle).


Quoting jurakantaino:
Igor is a common name in Puerto Rico, we have many Igors here and is pronounce as it is written of course with the Spanish Phomemic of the vowel

Thanks, also. Comforting to know there's some method to their madness.
2714. hydrus
Quoting IKE:
Maybe he needs premium unleaded.....

Or nitrous...very weak.
Quoting Snowlover123:
Gaston is fighting some dry air...

Won't be for long. A moister mid-level environment awaits in the far eastern Caribbean.
Currently, Gaston is one thunderstorm away from being a naked swirl.
i think shes between 60-70 mph starting to look of a apparence of a hurricane
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Hermine is a classic Tehuantepec cross-over storm that I had been predicting before the season and that the GFS model had depicted for a while. Likely to become the third tropical cyclone to make landfall near the US/Mexico border this season. Luckily this system is not expected to become a hurricane.


60 knots is predicted to be at peak, or 70 mph, just 4 mph short of Hurricane prompting the NHC to put up Hurricane watches for Texas/Mexico. Hermine has a decent shot at hurricane status.
2717:

Gaston is gonna break the John Hope rule...
Quoting btwntx08:

yes


Good luck with hurricane-force gusts IMO
Quoting JupiterFL:


Orca,
While I respect your opinion, I think you are slightly overboard. People discuss JFV and he is banned. People discuss Stormtop and he has been banned 100 times. At least this guy brings out discussion of weather and not shower curtains.


It might just be me, but as a person who has done more SAR work then I even want to think about... he is dangerous... he is going to get some SAR Tech killed with his foolishness.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Won't be for long. A moister mid-level environment awaits in the far eastern Caribbean.


True. Global Models also show shear dying down, which would also be conductive for development.
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
Oh no!!! All caps.....ooooooooo!!!! Whatever...



Lol. Good morning Katrina.
Quoting Orcasystems:


It might just be me, but as a person who has done more SAR work then I even want to think about... he is dangerous... he is going to get some SAR Tech killed with his foolishness.


What are the Sons of the American Revolution doing with OZ in a hurricane?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


60 knots is predicted to be at peak, or 70 mph, just 4 mph short of Hurricane prompting the NHC to put up Hurricane watches for Texas/Mexico. Hermine has a decent shot at hurricane status.


I think later today, the watches will be upgraded to warnings.
Quoting ozzyman236:
weatherguyo3 said gaston is R.I.P he should know he is dead on with hermine...props to weatherguy03..



Gaston is no where close to R.I.P. He will most likely be reformed by tomorrow.
2732. hydrus
Quoting RecordSeason:
2717:

Gaston is gonna break the John Hope rule...
Is that the rule where the disturbance has to be a T.D. in order to have a 70% of being a named storm in the Caribbean?
2733. Hhunter
Quoting Snowlover123:


If it's in all caps it has to be right? Right? LMAO!
So some think!! Those are the ones who will be having BBQ crow when all is said and done... Y'all have a great Labor day and everyone, everywhere, be safe.
Quoting Snowlover123:


Sadly, Hermine is probably stronger than 50 mph, and this is a perfect disaster for not warning people before-hand.

So Hermine is at 990.5MB, her minds are about 65MPH?
Quoting StormsAreCool:



Lol. Good morning Katrina.
Good Morning!
Quoting calusakat:


If the Dr and Oz have problems, let them deal with it. Likewise let the rest of the group decide for themselves


Well, in all fairness, the Dr. did deal with Oz...he banned him.
Does anyone know how to bring up the long range reflectivity loop from the National Weather Service in Brownsville?

It a great loop and looks really far south into the GOM.
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
So some think!! Those are the ones who will be having BBQ crow when all is said and done... Y'all have a great Labor day and everyone, everywhere, be safe.


Yep. You too. Enjoy your labor day. ;)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Good luck with hurricane-force gusts IMO

yes im already hunkerdown not going no where
Hermine's shot at hurricane status depends on her speed.

If she slows down a bit, she could.

Based on the differences between the NHC co-ordinates at each advisory, it's not impossible, but unlikely.
Quoting itrackstorms:
000
URNT11 KNHC 061505
92229 15034 21272 91909 73100 99005 6566/ /5762
RMK AF303 0110A HERMINE OB 04
LAST REPORT

Well, looks like Hermine wants to be come our 4th hurricane of the season :O)..
2746. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Brownsville, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI


Quoting ozzyman236:
orca it sounds like to me you are jealous of cyclone oz...


ROFLMAO, yeah thats it.. I am getting old.
I am sorry... my idea of excitement is a long walk down a fairway with a putter in my hand :)
(I wish I could remember who said that, so I could give them proper credit)
Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
Brownsville, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI





The center of circulation is definately visible on the long range loops.
Quoting Orcasystems:


It might just be me, but as a person who has done more SAR work then I even want to think about... he is dangerous... he is going to get some SAR Tech killed with his foolishness.


Bearing a grudge does not justify CENSORSHIP...EVER

This needs to go private.


Hermine looking like high TS / Low cat1 landfall.
Quoting Cotillion:
Hermine's shot at hurricane status depends on her speed.

If she slows down a bit, she will.

Based on the differences between the NHC co-ordinates at each advisory, it's not impossible, but unlikely.

speed or not she become a hurricane
Just ignore ozzy, he's only here to cause trouble. I agree weatherguy is a absolutely amazing forecaster but he isn't the only one.

Hopefully, ozzy will be gone by lunchtime.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2010 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 23:13:25 N Lon : 95:42:08 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.8 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -76.4C Cloud Region Temp : -74.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
2756. hydrus
Quoting JupiterFL:


Man yall are uptight. I love that show.
So when you were little, and The 3 Stooges were on TV, did your parents freak out because Curley took an iron to the side of his face?
There is that cut through the manure humor I like.
Quoting Bordonaro:

So Hermine is at 990.5MB, her minds are about 65MPH?


Perhaps. The DVORAK-T Numbers they use to issue advisory intensities are just estimates, not actual numbers, keep in mind.
I apologize if this has been stated recently, but can anybody give a current center fix on ex-Gaston? Thank you.
Would be nice if Recon heads back in to check Hermine if and when they fix the radar issues.
2760. Hhunter
btwntx: Missouri City here, you geting much rain your way?
Quoting RecordSeason:
Hermine looking like high TS / Low cat1 landfall.


I definitely agree.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2010 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 23:13:25 N Lon : 95:42:08 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.8 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : 0.0mb

Center Temp : -76.4C Cloud Region Temp : -74.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

4.0 is 65kts or 75MPH :O)
I hope the Labor Day folks know Hermine is coming!!!!!!!
Quoting RecordSeason:
Hermine looking like high TS / Low cat1 landfall.
Couldn't agree more. Might be time for NHC to put out hurricane watches/warnings near brownsville, TX coastline.
2758:

It's somewhere around 17N and 56.5W as of 1445UTC....which is already an hour ago.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Would be nice if Recon heads back in to check Hermine if and when they fix the radar issues.
Especially considering the next flight is scheduled for overnight hours and its so close to land.
Can't they send out the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance squadron again like they did for Marco? Because by the time the next recon goes into Hermine, she'll probably be inland.
2771. Ryuujin
Quoting JupiterFL:


Man yall are uptight. I love that show.
So when you were little, and The 3 Stooges were on TV, did your parents freak out because Curley took an iron to the side of his face?
Quoting JupiterFL:


Man yall are uptight. I love that show.
So when you were little, and The 3 Stooges were on TV, did your parents freak out because Curley took an iron to the side of his face?


The difference is that the Three Stooges were on film (at the time) and on TV when we all saw them. We also were of the understanding that they're fictional characters. Oz isn't and what he does is dangerous.
Happy Labor Day to all Americans! Can someone please point out the center of ex-Gaston? Thanks!
Quoting Bordonaro:

4.0 is 65kts or 75MPH O)
And latest raw estimates put it right at 4.0. Thankfully this thing doesn't have much time over water.
Quoting ozzyman236:
teddy you the trouble maker ..all i did was said how weatherguy03 was dead on ...i have that right he does a wonderful job and never hedges..he tells it like it is like some other people i know..

Definitely..Maybe we should email the NHC!!
Quoting Bordonaro:

4.0 is 65kts or 75MPH :O)


So CIMSS estimates it at Hurricane Stregnth. If that's true, we have a rapidly deepening system.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Couldn't agree more. Might be time for NHC to put out hurricane watches/warnings near brownsville, TX coastline.


Hurricane watches are already up
2777. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Couldn't agree more. Might be time for NHC to put out hurricane watches/warnings near brownsville, TX coastline.
If Hermine were to slow down, it might a strong cat-one at landfall.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Can't they send out the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance squadron again like they did for Marco? Because by the time the next recon goes into Hermine, she'll probably be inland.
I'm not sure how it works, but I would assume they would be doing everything they could to get data with a storm this close to land.
2779. Vero1
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Would be nice if Recon heads back in to check Hermine if and when they fix the radar issues.


They turned around because They heard that Patrap started the grill!
When I see information on the web-site I see two storms. When I see sat photos, I see one storm. WHAT GIVES ?????
2781. dxdy
If TS Hermine in testifies into a hurricane, what are the chances of it being drawn more northward towards Corpus Christi?
Quoting TcuFrogs:
btwntx: Missouri City here, you geting much rain your way?

im probably gonna almost the full force of her
Quoting Snowlover123:


So CIMSS estimates it at Hurricane Stregnth. If that's true, we have a rapidly deepening system.

Yes, welcome to the 2010 ATL TC Season..and watch out for Gaston, he will be TROUBLE!!
Shortwave for Hermine just aquired obvious symetrical outflow and possibly the beginnings of an eye-wall.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
And latest raw estimates put it right at 4.0. Thankfully this thing doesn't have much time over water.


Has about 12 hours, plenty of time to intensify.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Would be nice if Recon heads back in to check Hermine if and when they fix the radar issues.
I will keep my ears open for ya. I can usually hear them when they take off. It is a totally different sound than when the other planes are leaving the base...
It's anmazing how many trolls have nothing better to do on a Holiday that to post crap in this blog.

My ignore button doesn't get holidays...if this keeps up I'll break 200 today.

Why would anyone in their right mind RIP a system in the MDR with a closed circulation and improving conditions...you guys prove your worthlessness by your statements!
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Couldn't agree more. Might be time for NHC to put out hurricane watches/warnings near brownsville, TX coastline.


Hurricane watches are already up
Thanks recordseason, belizewunderfan, as of an hour ago it was near 17 N 56.5 W
Quoting Ryuujin:


The difference is that the Three Stooges were on film (at the time) and on TV when we all saw them. We also were of the understanding that they're fictional characters. Oz isn't and what he does is dangerous.

So was what Steve Irwin, the Crocodile Hunter, did and countless others. If someone can't separate TV from their own reality/capabilities then they may just be up for the next Darwin award.
2792. Levi32
Good morning all. It looks like Hermine is steadily strengthening and there is no reason she should stop. She's probably a 50-knot system already.

Based on a deep convective band on visible satellite imagery, this is where the center looks to be, and it's starting to wrap tightly at the center:

Quoting CybrTeddy:


60 knots is predicted to be at peak, or 70 mph, just 4 mph short of Hurricane prompting the NHC to put up Hurricane watches for Texas/Mexico. Hermine has a decent shot at hurricane status.
I think Texas and Mexico are fortunate it won't be over water much longer, if it was it could develop to a major hurricane. Last night when i went to be we did not even have a depression
Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes, welcome to the 2010 ATL TC Season..and watch out for Gaston, he will be TROUBLE!!


The GFS ensembles predict in 24 hours that shear will drop to 3 kts. over Ex-Gaston, and that it will be moving into a moister environment. I agree that down the road, Gaston is definitely an item to watch, as well as those features coming off of Africa, in which the global models constantly develop Igor.
Quoting Ryuujin:


The difference is that the Three Stooges were on film (at the time) and on TV when we all saw them. We also were of the understanding that they're fictional characters. Oz isn't and what he does is dangerous.


Not true.

Studies have shown that children often are not able to differentiate between a real person and their story and an fictional character and their story. To the child, they are both real.

Some people in this group see things differently than you and to attempt to CENSOR them is WRONG.


Hermine looks to become a hurricane soon, by the looks of it.
Look like a rainmaker.
Quoting Snowlover123:


Has about 12 hours, plenty of time to intensify.


Exactly, 12 hours ago she wasn't even a tropical storm.
Quoting ozzyman236:
well floodman you ask weatherguy03 he has been dead on he knows what hes talking about something you know nothing about...am i correct floodman


FOCUS Oz
2788:

Right now the model support for Gaston is still very strong.

If it takes the southern end of the Spaghetti plots, it could make a serious run on Wilma's intensity record....and I'm not "doomcasting". That's what several of the models are trending towards.
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all. It looks like Hermine is steadily strengthening and there is no reason she should stop. She's probably nearing a 50-knot system already.

Based on a deep convective band on visible satellite imagery, this is where the center looks to be, and it's starting to wrap tightly at the center:



Good morning Levi! I would place the center a tad more north and east, but looks good to me! ;)
Quoting RecordSeason:
2788:

Right now the model support for Gaston is still very strong.

If it takes the southern end of the Spaghetti plots, it could make a serious run on Wilma's intensity record....and I'm not "doomcasting". That's what several of the models are trending towards.

With 12-18 hrs I fear Gaston will be in a real moist environment and he will ramp up fast..
2804. Patrap
Quoting Floodman:
It's anmazing how many trolls have nothing better to do on a Holiday that to post crap in this blog.

My ignore button doesn't get holidays...if this keeps up I'll break 200 today.

Why would anyone in their right mind RIP a system in the MDR with a closed circulation and improving conditions...you guys prove your worthlessness by your statements!


plus 5000 and a Burger
TWC just that recon will be leaving "shortly" to recon Hermine..
2806. Patrap
Quoting hydrus:
If Hermine were to slow down, it might a strong cat-one at landfall.
Yeah, that is possible, but she's needs all the time she can get over those very warm, high TCHP gulf waters. We'll see...
12z GFS starting...

still shows no Gaston at 24hrs, just an open wave.

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I think Texas and Mexico are fortunate it won't be over water much longer, if it was it could develop to a major hurricane. Last night when i went to be we did not even have a depression


It scares me that Hurr Celia (1970) was a small depression that no one worried about when we went to bed, and we woke up to a 180mph monster knocking at our door. Hope this one does differently!
2811. leo305
The hunters are going into hermine as we speak.. they should be there in an hour or two
I'm hoping Hermine takes the western track ASAP.

The northern track would intensify far more, and also get possibly kicked back east before landfall.
2813. lhwhelk
Quoting dxdy:
If TS Hermine in testifies into a hurricane, what are the chances of it being drawn more northward towards Corpus Christi?
The hurricane watch is actually up the coast from Port Isabel. If the time weren't so short, I wouldn't rule Corpus out. We're getting occasional bands of rain in Lake Jackson, for which we are grateful.
2814. Relix
Seems like Gaston is making his final comeback before the Antilles.
2815. Hhunter


wow..not good
ok, I just can't resist chiming in on Mr. Oz...Yeah, I'll watch his antics, and I also respect his right to do what he does. Cantore and others do it. What I have zero respect for, but what honestly gets me to watch is his sheer stupidity.

He chased a thunderstorm (94L)...Driving from NM almost to NO before turning around. His coverage of the OBX was very poor. For one, there was not daylight footage after the storm. He was drinking scotch the whole time he was at Hatteras which is just stupid. And now he's getting ready to drive from NM to Brownsville to cover a storm that even the NHC slower track says will be well inland by 7am tomorrow morning...And didn't someone say he was going to go live at 5am?

The sad thing is Oz has a good concept and people do want to see what happens when these storms make landfall. He is just about as clueless as it gets when it comes to "how" to do it. It is quite obvious that this is more about his ego than good journalism. And those of you that know me, know I have little tolerance for an over inflated ego.
Quoting Orcasystems:


FOCUS Oz
I hope he FOCUSes the way I think you mean it....LMAO!!
Quoting RecordSeason:
Shortwave for Hermine just aquired obvious symetrical outflow and possibly the beginnings of an eye-wall.


She does look impressive on shortwave.
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
TWC just that recon will be leaving "shortly" to recon Hermine..


How pathetic. The only good thing about the Weather Channel, is to see the live reports. Those are cool. :)
2821. Levi32
Radar out of Brownsville shows that Hermine's core still lacks banded organization, which means this isn't close to a hurricane yet, but you can see the main feeder band wrapping into the center and this could start winding up in a hurry if it's given the time.

very well said storm junkie +10000 on that post
2824. leo305
Quoting Snowlover123:


How pathetic. The only good thing about the Weather Channel, is to see the live reports. Those are cool. :)


they showed a live track in there map showing the hunters moving towards hermine
Quoting BaltOCane:
12z GFS starting...

still shows no Gaston at 24hrs, just an open wave.



Such a shame that Gaston has a closed COC, making this already inaccurate.
Quoting Snowlover123:


Has about 12 hours, plenty of time to intensify.
Well yes, but that isn't like two days. 12 hours is enough time to reach hurricane strength but not much more than that. Hermine still has to develop a tight core to become a hurricane, and may be on its way of doing so, but these things don't just happen. Systems don't really bomb until they have an eyewall, and this doesn't yet.
Quoting Relix:
Seems like Gaston is making his final comeback before the Antilles.


Yep. Another day or so of doing the choo-choo-train thingy with his convection... and then... moisture!
Quoting Snowlover123:


Such a shame that Gaston has a closed COC, making this already inaccurate.


that's what I thought.
Can't wait until we actually have some real time current obs from the hurricane hunters. I remember back on October 18th, 2005 that night Hurricane Wilma rapidly intensified and could not wait until the next recon obs came in showing us how low Wilma could really end up going and it turned out it could have been more stronger then the 882mb pressure we got from the hurricane hunters given that there was a lull. I said that earlier today, but feel I need to repeat it given how historic she really was. I believe it was the evening of the 18th of October and Wilma became a category five that next morning early hours of course and going through that classic EWRC.
Quoting Orcasystems:


FOCUS Oz


Lmao!

My two cents- when people ignore evac orders, most comments run along the lines of "Why, all they're doing is putting Search and Rescue lives in jeopardy" or "Darwinism in action."

And yet you have someone who intentionally walks into harm's way and most people on here are excusing it as acceptable behavior.

What's the difference?
Quoting BaltOCane:
12z GFS starting...

still shows no Gaston at 24hrs, just an open wave.



Models oscillate all over with Gaston, just as he does almost.

(On a side note - Ravens just got Houshmandzadeh.)
Morning everyone.. Just wanted to point out an average season is 11/6/2.. And we're already at
9/3(possibly 4 soon)/2 And it's we haven't even reached the peak of the season yet. It's gonna be interesting the next few months.
2834. Gearsts
Gaston looking better finally!
@48 hrs, still no Gaston... what the heck?



...but notice what's coming off Africa
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Well yes, but that isn't like two days. 12 hours is enough time to reach hurricane strength but not much more than that. Hermine still has to develop a tight core to become a hurricane, and may be on its way of doing so, but these things don't just happen. Systems don't really bomb until they have an eyewall, and this doesn't yet.


True, but remember Humberto?

-Snow
Quoting Cotillion:


Models oscillate all over with Gaston, just as he does almost.

(On a side note - Ravens just got Houshmandzadeh.)


....and I jst dropped him yesterday from my Fantasy league, too.... figures...

Quoting Ryuujin:


The difference is that the Three Stooges were on film (at the time) and on TV when we all saw them. We also were of the understanding that they're fictional characters. Oz isn't and what he does is dangerous.

I don't have a dog in fight I could careless. But saying OZ does not have the right, then why does Jim Cantore or any other weatherman have a right? If it was not for people risking their own lives how would we ever get the videos to warn future people of the dangers of these storms. He is doing it just like I like to chase tornadoes. He is not making money doing it, but if the Weather Channel sends someone out there they ARE making money because we like seeing these people in harms way. There may be more to this story than I know but that is my take on people going into these storms.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Top of the day everyone! WOW! Hermine blew up QUICK!!! Oz is en route to intercept! Go live 5am tomorrow morning for those interested...http://7674u.com

How likely is it that Hermine becomes a hurricane before landfall?


Junky, tell him to turn the cam on for the drive so we can see just how far away he is when it makes landfall.
Quoting Snowlover123:


True, but remember Humberto?

-Snow
I do. But even Humberto was a cat 1 at landfall. I'm not saying this cant become a hurricane, but I don't see more than a minimal cane. Its rate of organization is quite impressive. The NAM seems to have called this one correctly.
very well said racer...10000+
Levi the latest 1545utc satellite imagery shows what you are saying very well. Although the extent of the cold cloud tops have actually warmed, that equatorward band is wrapping into the center of Hermine now and will allow rapid deepening to occur once established. Time is running out on Hermine's ability to strengthen, but I think she should become a category one hurricane before landfall intensity set at 80mph.
Hermine back up to 114kts flight level gust...
2844. Legion
Quoting SouthCentralTex:


So let's censor him for thinking outside the box? Geez, this blog is full of a bunch of whiny wimps. Half of the folks on here wishcast a storm to they're front door, then like the hypocrites they are, put Oz down for what he does. This isn't Oz's first rodeo. He's been through several Hurricanes and is a storm chaser by nature. If the man wants report from inside the wall of a storm. Who are you to criticise him for that? Just because he doesn't have a Million Dollar Operation and crew of 50 backing him doesn't make him unsafe.
Quoting racer925:

I don't have a dog in fight I could careless. But saying OZ does not have the right, then why does Jim Cantore or any other weatherman have a right? If it was not for people risking their own lives how would we ever get the videos to warn future people of the dangers of these storms. He is doing it just like I like to chase tornadoes. He is not making money doing it, but if the Weather Channel sends someone out there they ARE making money because we like seeing these people in harms way. There may be more to this story than I know but that is my take on people going into these storms.


Well said, both of you. My sentiments exactly.
Quoting StormJunkie:

And those of you that know me, know I have little tolerance for an over inflated ego.



...uumm, ain't that what we call an "overcooked ham!" ;P
I'm not so sure. Gaston looks basically like a swirl void of any real convection near its center.
2847. luigi18
Quoting Gearsts:
Gaston looking better finally!
Here in Puerto Rico is a lot of humidity and the water in the beach is very very hot! not normal. this means a favorable environment for Jr Gaston.
2848. Ryuujin
Quoting racer925:

I don't have a dog in fight I could careless. But saying OZ does not have the right, then why does Jim Cantore or any other weatherman have a right? If it was not for people risking their own lives how would we ever get the videos to warn future people of the dangers of these storms. He is doing it just like I like to chase tornadoes. He is not making money doing it, but if the Weather Channel sends someone out there they ARE making money because we like seeing these people in harms way. There may be more to this story than I know but that is my take on people going into these storms.


I have the same opinion of Reed Timmer as well. Yes the Weather Channel does it because they have a $ stake in it, so does Reed and so does Oz. None of them would do it for purely scientific gain.

It might be compelling viewing, but it's also a foundation for disaster if someone decides to go out and follow in said folks footsteps. That's all.
Quoting RecordSeason:
Hermine back up to 114kts flight level gust...

A 70KT Hurricane??
Afternoon mlc, good to see ya.
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Levi the latest 1545utc satellite imagery shows what you are saying very well. Although the extent of the cold cloud tops have actually warmed, that equatorward band is wrapping into the center of Hermine now and will allow rapid deepening to occur once established. Time is running out on Hermine's ability to strengthen, but I think she should become a category one hurricane before landfall intensity set at 80mph.


Completely agree; The storm is consolidating rather quickly--IR Dvorak has captured the process fairly well. If this thing isn't a hurricane by 7:00PM EDT, I'll be very surprised.
Quoting Patrap:

A dropsonde just missed me and da grill and NOLA Roux is chewing it to shreds..


Don't let her eat the diodes...they're hard to pass
Quoting StormJunkie:


Junky, tell him to turn the cam on for the drive so we can see just how far away he is when it makes landfall.
I would like to see that too
Once Gaston gets in the Caribbean, Uh-Oh!
recon flight is halfway to Hermine
Quoting RecordSeason:
Hermine back up to 114kts flight level gust...
Source(s)?
Yesterday:

Anyone have the link to the HH data website? I forgot to bookmark it.
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Thanks recordseason, belizewunderfan, as of an hour ago it was near 17 N 56.5 W

Thanks!
2863. tkeith
it seems we may be discussing two different Oz's...

clarification: OZ= (CycloneOz, former blogger, alledged scotch drinker)

ozzy= (ignore list filler, non-focuser)
2864. hydrus
Quoting WildHorseDesertTx:


It scares me that Hurr Celia (1970) was a small depression that no one worried about when we went to bed, and we woke up to a 180mph monster knocking at our door. Hope this one does differently!
180 ??? I think it was sustained at 130 with gusts to 161.
2865. Ryuujin
Quoting SouthCentralTex:


So let's censor him for thinking outside the box? Geez, this blog is full of a bunch of whiny wimps. Half of the folks on here wishcast a storm to they're front door, then like the hypocrites they are, put Oz down for what he does. This isn't Oz's first rodeo. He's been through several Hurricanes and is a storm chaser by nature. If the man wants report from inside the wall of a storm. Who are you to criticise him for that? Just because he doesn't have a Million Dollar Operation and crew of 50 backing him doesn't make him unsafe.


No it's his overhyping 50 MPH winds like it's going to rip the fabric of space-time and shooting in a dark environment with a gas awning that garnishes him contempt.

I'll use a alternate occupation.

If solid storm chasers that are careful and know their surroundings and know how to shoot video and take accurate readings to share the data with the community are A Class Trial/Co-orporate Lawyers, then Oz is basically an Ambulance Chaser.
Quoting Kristina40:
Anyone have the link to the HH data website? I forgot to bookmark it.
NHC Aircraft Reconnaissance

Tropical Atlantic Live Reconnaissance Data
I'm not knocking, dissing, down-casting, poo-pooing, righting off, or otherwise disrespecting the potential of EX gaston...BUT, the facts remain that no matter what his potential, the cyclone to be has been unable to do much for days. Gaston has failed to hold onto his balls of convection..they wax and wane. At the moment, he appears intent on passing through the Antilles as a naked swirl. There are plenty of nude beaches. What happens beyond that is open to the fertile imaginations of the bloggers. Some models show stengthening, others do not. It's a hard call.
Thanks, Pat...I'll be by to collect with a couple of sixes of Abita!
2869. hydrus
Quoting tkeith:
it seems we may be discussing two different Oz's...

clarification: OZ= (CycloneOz, former blogger, alledged scotch drinker)

ozzy= (ignore list filler, non-focuser)
There is a third..Ozzie osbourne.(Party Animal-Rock star).:)
Quoting Kristina40:
Anyone have the link to the HH data website? I forgot to bookmark it.

Link
Hi Wunderground.
2872. Patrap



Houston,,you've got a Hot Mike..!


Pffffttttttt............
2873. tkeith
Quoting hydrus:
There is a third..Ozzie osbourne.(Party Animal-Rock star).:)
I stand corrected Hydrus :)
2874. Levi32
Quoting WildHorseDesertTx:


It scares me that Hurr Celia (1970) was a small depression that no one worried about when we went to bed, and we woke up to a 180mph monster knocking at our door. Hope this one does differently!


Celia was a tropical depression in the Caribbean for 36 hours before becoming a storm...and then yes it did rapidly strengthen into a Cat 3 but no more than that, certainly not 180mph, and not very close to land either.

2875. Hhunter
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd-l.jpg
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Hi Wunderground.


Hey :)
Quoting Ryuujin:


I have the same opinion of Reed Timmer as well. Yes the Weather Channel does it because they have a $ stake in it, so does Reed and so does Oz. None of them would do it for purely scientific gain.

It might be compelling viewing, but it's also a foundation for disaster if someone decides to go out and follow in said folks footsteps. That's all.


I've chased six hurricanes, most recently Ike... got a lot of gear to help keep myself as safe as possible - and I have never made a dime.. but have spent quite a few of them lol
Think of this as the second trimester ultrasound for both Igor (left) and Julia. Yikes!

Click for larger image:

2879. Patrap


Quoting Floodman:
Thanks, Pat...I'll be by to collect with a couple of sixes of Abita!


Purple Haze is da Hopps Du jour of the day here


Is anyone else picking up on any obs from the Hurricane Hunters? I'm not.
2881. will40
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Tropical Depression: Number 9 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

not sure what this recon is up to
Thanks for the link guys.
2883. Hhunter
Wilma's the fastest strengthening hurricane (Atlantic Basin). It went from a Tropical storm to a cat5 in about 24-30 hours.
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

So was what Steve Irwin, the Crocodile Hunter, did and countless others. If someone can't separate TV from their own reality/capabilities then they may just be up for the next Darwin award.

I'm a newbie with a new avatar but still Charlestonnanny. All of this freedom of speech is nonsense as Dr. Masters owns this blog and that is "freedom of ownership" IMO. When does a hurricane warning go up for storms? Than you all.
2886. tkeith
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Hi Wunderground.
new avatar?
2887. JRRP
2888. Hhunter
hunter craft going to gaston
Quoting luigi18:
Here in Puerto Rico is a lot of humidity and the water in the beach is very very hot! not normal. this means a favorable environment for Jr Gaston.


A lot of shower and thunderstorm activity looks to flair up- the problem? None of it is near the center.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Think of this as the second trimester ultrasound for both Igor (left) and Julia. Yikes!

Click for larger image:




Ho My Gosh !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks for the heads up
Quoting will40:
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Tropical Depression: Number 9 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

not sure what this recon is up to
Another Reconnaissance aircraft is investigating the remnants of Gaston.
Quoting tkeith:
new avatar?

Yeah.
2893. angiest
Been out of pocket this weekend but I just wanted to say (with apologies to Waters, Gilmour, et al) "Welcome to Hermine."

Hermine is causing some nice showers here on the far west side of Houston.
Why would they investigate Gaston? Perhaps to see what is happening in the environment of Gaston.
2895. hydrus
Quoting Neapolitan:
Think of this as the second trimester ultrasound for both Igor (left) and Julia. Yikes!

Click for larger image:

Very, very impressive looking waves..And the anti-cyclones that are going to support them should make things interesting.
2896. Patrap
Good Morning everyone!

Hey Pat,
hows life on the southshore. I went up I-55 to Mississippi for the weekend. Woke up to 58 degrees yesterday morning. Was awesome!!!!!
Quoting tkeith:
new avatar?

I can change it if you want.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yesterday:



WOW. And that is right in front of Gaston...
NAVY/NRL has a TC formation alert for ex-Gaston (17.4N 55.5W)
2901. angiest
Quoting Hhunter:


Hermine really seems to be getting it together.
2902. txjac
Quoting angiest:
Been out of pocket this weekend but I just wanted to say (with apologies to Waters, Gilmour, et al) "Welcome to Hermine."

Hermine is causing some nice showers here on the far west side of Houston.


I agree ...kind of puts a damper on my plans but am thouroughly enjoying the rain!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Think of this as the second trimester ultrasound for both Igor (left) and Julia. Yikes!

Click for larger image:


Yet the one over water is not mentioned in the TWO.
2904. Patrap
Quoting doorman79:
Good Morning everyone!

Hey Pat,
hows life on the southshore. I went up I-55 to Mississippi for the weekend. Woke up to 58 degrees yesterday morning. Was awesome!!!!!


Yeah,,yesterday was awesome here too,,but Hermine has brought the muggies back this am..
Levi, Hermine is developing some impressive inflow bands, or low level spiral banding is becoming more and more evident with each passing satellite frame.
2906. Vero1
GRIP's DC-8 is on the ground @ 17.7N 64.8W
Looks like indeed it's approaching 24N, still 2 hours before advisory.

I wanted to see if it would be close to: 24.5N, 96.4W.

Looks like it.

If it continues, it'll make landfall around half 5 to 6pm at a guess.
Quoting Patrap:


Yeah,,yesterday was awesome here too,,but Hermine has brought the muggies back this am..


That she has:(
2911. hydrus
Good outflow, especially on the western side.
the dry air covering the gulfcoast is pushing north..if i lived in houston i would sure keep a close eye on hermine...it could move north and follow the dry air moving north...
Two HH's. in Different directions.. inbound/outbound



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
2914. luigi18
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Why would they investigate Gaston? Perhaps to see what is happening in the environment of Gaston.

they know something is going on!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


You were briefly associated with Oz's operation. Untill he kick ya to the Curb SJ. I'm glad he did. And now you sound like a jilted lover. Dry up and blow away dude.
Quoting Cotillion:
Looks like indeed it's approaching 24N, still 2 hours before advisory.

I wanted to see if it would be close to: 24.5N, 96.4W.

Looks like it.

If it continues, it'll make landfall around half 5 (pm) at a guess.

nah landfall will be tonight not 5 only 5 1/2 hrs i dont think so
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona

Gaston
Hermine

Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paul
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter
Quoting Neapolitan:
Think of this as the second trimester ultrasound for both Igor (left) and Julia. Yikes!

Click for larger image:

It's a complicated scenario depicted by the models when it comes to these two waves and which one becomes the tropical cyclone. The GFS and NOGAPS depict that PGI41L (the weaker pouch located just off the African coast) absorbs PGI42L (the stronger pouch still over land and east of PGI41L). The ECMWF on the other hand does the opposite when it has PGI42L absorbing PGI41L. The CMC also appears to be on the same bandwagon as the ECMWF.
2919. Prgal
Good afternoon. Is Gaston a TD? Link
Quoting StormJunkie:
ok, I just can't resist chiming in on Mr. Oz...Yeah, I'll watch his antics, and I also respect his right to do what he does. Cantore and others do it. What I have zero respect for, but what honestly gets me to watch is his sheer stupidity.

He chased a thunderstorm (94L)...Driving from NM almost to NO before turning around. His coverage of the OBX was very poor. For one, there was not daylight footage after the storm. He was drinking scotch the whole time he was at Hatteras which is just stupid. And now he's getting ready to drive from NM to Brownsville to cover a storm that even the NHC slower track says will be well inland by 7am tomorrow morning...And didn't someone say he was going to go live at 5am?

The sad thing is Oz has a good concept and people do want to see what happens when these storms make landfall. He is just about as clueless as it gets when it comes to "how" to do it. It is quite obvious that this is more about his ego than good journalism. And those of you that know me, know I have little tolerance for an over inflated ego.


Well said, SJ. I watched it the other night. I agree with you 100%.
Here's another great shot of Things To Come:

Click for larger image:

Quoting hydrus:
180 ??? I think it was sustained at 130 with gusts to 161.


That was at Corpus Christi International Airport, which is 20 miles inland of the bay, and 25 from the Gulf (Behind Padre Island). Weather instruments in Port Aransas (right on the gulf) blew off and stopped recording at 175mph, right after the eye passed over.
2924. Relix
Gaston is truly making a comeback. Airplane over him.
NEW BLOG
NEW BLOG!
NEW BLOG!
2928. Hhunter
Link

track hermine on radar..you can see core on long range brownsville radar
Quoting 1900hurricane:


Looks to be developing a very tight inner core, eyewall.
Good morning all. I see we now have Tropical Storm Hermine and it is looking mighty impressive and going a little further north. It has been raining off and on here and getting breezy. I wonder if it will get worse here as time goes on. Stay safe everyone...
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


You were briefly associated with Oz's operation. Untill he kick ya to the Curb SJ. I'm glad he did. And now you sound like a jilted lover. Dry up and blow away dude.

That was over the line...sorry.
2933. hydrus
Quoting WildHorseDesertTx:


That was at Corpus Christi International Airport, which is 20 miles inland of the bay, and 25 from the Gulf (Behind Padre Island). Weather instruments in Port Aransas (right on the gulf) blew off and stopped recording at 175mph, right after the eye passed over.
Link???
Quoting hydrus:
180 ??? I think it was sustained at 130 with gusts to 161.


That was at Corpus Christi International Airport, which is 20 miles inland of the bay, and 25 from the Gulf (Behind Padre Island). Weather instruments in Port Aransas (right on the gulf) blew off and stopped recording at 175mph, right after the eye passed over.
Quoting hydrus:
Link???


OK, http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/?n=celia1970


Location (* - estimated)Max Sustained Wind/Max Wind Gust
Aransas Pass NNE 130 mph SW 180 mph *
Corpus Christi WSO SW 125 mph SW 161 mph
Quoting RecordSeason:
2301:

So is it "Ee-Gor" or is it "eye-gor"?

It's an Russian name
Quoting RecordSeason:
2301:

So is it "Ee-Gor" or is it "eye-gor"?

It's an Russian name