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Gamma Position Adjusted

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:20 PM GMT on November 19, 2005

Just a reminder, this is Shaun, not Dr. Masters.

Gamma Update

Well, some new developments have transpired since my last update. A hurricane hunter that investigated Gamma found that the center of the storm was considerably farther southeast than originally thought. You can see the storm center on the visible satellite loop spinning just north of the Honduras coast. While looking at this loop, you can see a very slight eastward movement which is expected to be short-lived.
The storm center is exposed to the south with the main convection field still observed well north of the center, which has a minimum low pressure of 1004 mb. Flight level winds were reported at 49 knots, with an initial intensity of 40 knots. The storm's convection also remains unorganized.
Gamma is faced with some obstacles with regards to intensification. Wind shear is still considerably strong over the system (20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical shear) and this value is expected to increase even more. This by itself should be enough to inhibit any significant strengthening. Secondly, the ridge of high pressure to the system's north is expected to weaken, allowing a trough and low pressure system to develop over the eastern United States. This should turn northeast and again hamper any significant intensification.
Models have once again trended more to the east and south and this is again reflected in the official NHC forecast track, which now takes it across central Cuba and well south of Florida towards the southern Bahamas. This track follows the GFDL closely with regards to position. The GFS loops a weak Gamma through the northwest Caribbean south of Cuba while the BAM takes the storm just south of Florida.
Also, the storm created landslides in Honduras today and claimed the lives of two people.

Figure 1. Most recent computer models for Gamma.

Figure 2. Official NHC forecast track taking Gamma even farther south that previous forecasts.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Dr. Masters, you won't be the new Cantore will you? :)
Go away Gamma
Gotta run, all. Have to feed the troops, drink some wine, and watch football. Have a great evening. I will check back later. I am putting a gris-gris on TS Gamma for all my Florida friends!
well i am out her for a little bit but i be back later on to see how ever one is doing
Hey lake,

I hope you know I understand where you are coming from and hope you understand where I am as well..I am just wanting everyone to move on. :)
Hey noLainNc,

I missed your question from the previous blog..I live in Wilmington closet to Wrightsville Beach and I love it herre though your area is beautiful as well..I hope you have a great rest of the weekend. ;)
just checking in and glad to see that we are out of the 'cone'... and i hope we stay out... finally got my windshield installed today and also got a new satellite dish, so i can watch the news and weather reports!!! the guy who said he would reblock and tie-down my mobile home called today and said it will be a few months before he gets around to it... uacceptable, as now even my washing machine shakes the whole back end of the house... so i will try and find someone else... worst case, i will rent some hydraulic jacks and bully all the men in my life to do the job themselves.... by 'bully' i mean offer to grill them a few steaks and make my famous potato salad...lol !!!
and a collective sigh of relief is heard across South Florida
hello guys............
hey Mousey and whats up Paul
and Billsfan..
hope everyones doing well this weekend.
Chaser... much better now that Gamma doesn't appear to be heading this way... we were certainly sweating it out...don't think tarps and TS winds/rain go hand in hand..
off to store to purchase some adult beverages to watch the 'Canes game tonight..
lol..Billsfan..

I hope you enjoy the game..I guess its safe to say who youre pulling for there..lol
The weather is kind of weird today........trying to be tropical and yet wintery at the same time...........crazy
Hey guys, just checking in... Great news for SFL!
I love it, that 4pm update that took my evil twin away from us really made my day, and weekend!
I know we are all so very happy here in South Florida that this storm will not really be a bad one for us.
GREAT JOB everyone that helped us wish her away!!!
Gamma (the only one now!)
Hey weatherboyFsu..
why dont you respond to my email after you requested I contact you and I said hello..no response..I presume you didnt see either maybe>?

anyway..I hope youre doing well.
Hey Gamma
you have mail.
I was just reading, scanning over the blogs.........hey guys this is a ALERT..........


EVERYONE PLEASE LOOK AT THE OVERALL PICTURE!!!!!!!!


THIS IS A WEATHER BLOG!!!!!!!!

THATS ALL!!!!!!!!!



FOR EVERYONE!!!!!!!!


HAVE FUN!!!!!!!!


IGNORE THE WANT-A-BE'S!!!!!!!!!!


IF YOU LEAVE THE BLOG, ITS YOUR OWN FAULT!!!!!!





See yall lata
have a good wekend Pensacola.
Im sorry hurricanechaser........Ive had so many emails......how have you been......Hows the wife, the child and the one on the way???
byebye
Its cool weatherboy.. I can certainly understand that..

All is well ty..just trying to find time with all to get my documentaries edited etc for all five DVDS. Its alot of work as Im sure you know all too well.. My wife is now 18 weeks pregnant and my little girl is sweet as always.. hows it going on your end..work etc>?
LOL Katie,

Sorry about that..lol..it was there for me to se and I'm quite fond of the name, "Katie" as well..have a good night Katie.:)
Alot of change going on.......work, living arrangements, social life,.......just everything, and its all good.......nothing to complain about, just that it is often unknown where a person's life will be at any given time.......Im going to email you right now......
Hey hurricanechaser....Pensacola21 and Palmbeacher are pretty tight.........they have been chatting alot lately........lol.......
ok ty weatherboy..im interested in all the good news:)
Thats not a bad thing..I got to know Palmbeacher a bit before and shes cool so I asume Katie is the same.
hi chaser and whoever else is here officially or lurking ::grin::

what a relief to think that gamma's evil twin is not coming to visit!! LOL

i'll be in and out this evening... need to see what it's like to have tv again... my poor scottish terrier has been depressed all month... he's a tv addict...

hope i wake up tomorrow and find that it wasn't just a temporary reprieve...

mouse
hey ever one i back on now

i am trying to find some video of Hurricane Charley when it was makeing land fall like cnn or twc or if any one have rec it
Chaser.......congrats on the little one on the way..how old is your little girl?
I don't if I should be proud I called this one or upset that it's now more fully headed our way . . . . lol

If Gamma does keep to its track, though, this is actually better for the Bahamas, mainly because the already hard-hit Northern Bahamas is totally outside the evil yellow cone .

I wish I had loops of Hurricane Michelle from a few years ago . . .. Oct-Dec 2001. It was remarkable to watch that storm almost literally shredded by the Central Cuban mountains.
Link
sorry guys..i was away..ty so much billsfam for asking about my little girl..she is 4 and a half and I love being a dady..how bout you>?

Hiya from The Bahamas :)
We hope that Cuba tears Gamma up more before it comes this way ;-)
sorry about all my typos..its daddy..lol..

Hey Zeta,

I have footage taped from the weather channel as Charley is coming ashore.
Hey Mousey,

I hope you are having a good day..Id come help if I didnt live like 12 hours away..lol :)
ok.I gotta go eat..I hope you all have a goodnight and rest of the weekend.:)

Thanks for asking about my little one Billsfan.
Someone help me out here...does the gfdl now have this thing just dropping south? take a look
39. dcw
That thing is dead, nothing at all near the center except one weak band.
twc just updated Gamma deaths to six :(
thanks chaser... we'll get the job done now that i've decided it's do-able... lol... typical aries
and I wonder why WU computer models not been showing GFDL for quite a few hours ?
mybahamas, that is sad news... i hope there won't be any more casualties and that ts gamma was the last gasp...
So happy that all of you in S. FL can breathe easier tonight. Happy Thanksgiving!!
I just posted a second entry to my blog. Here is the title:

TS Gamma Brings Memories of Hurricane Michelle 2001

I'm not sure if (or how) I can make a link to my blog, so I am not even trying .
Baha, just clicking on your name carries us to your blog :)
Why didn't I think of that :) . . . .

I am also realizing I have to watch out for the tags . . .

I think I have the blog actually saying and showing what I want now . . .
Here comes my informative Post....

Ok Gamma will NOT pull a Michelle...It will begin a more Northerly track soon...The center was just relocated...

And for those of you wondering where in the hell did the GFDL GO...It is there It shows Gamma Doing a Cyclonic loop and then for some unknown reason Drives the storm Southeast Towards South America as a Cat 1 Hurricane...
This Link Will Show u the 18z GFDL... Quite a dramatic Change from the 12z run...Link
So, FtLauderdale,

Where did u get the graphics?

hey all whats up
Baha, projected path move again ... Nassau out of cone; but now Inagua, with their salt ponds, right in its sights :(
If it ain't one thing ... :)
what a storm, first it tried to copy wilma, now it's taking the "wrong-way-Lenny" track! this is an absurd year, how many records will 2005 break????
dont know will you tell us willtell
dont know if you got this mybahamas i really likes megathumpa alot
thank ye boldman ... you might like this music track, too :)

Link

It's a fun one :)
yeah ill look at that thanks
wow you have sooo many songs how do you do it
MyBahamas:

It seems like one thing after another. Maybe tomorrow morning the whole Bahamas will be out of the cone and poor Dr. Masters will be under the gun.

Makes me start to wonder if that GDFL loop is as crazy as it sounds . . .
boldman, it's all smoke and mirrors :)
Baha, I hope it doesn't loop; but I hope Dr. Jeff gets many more sunny days in PR ... can I have both? :)
lol
Hi guys,
Look at this. The NOGAPS, GFS, GFDL, and BAMS all turn Gamma east and then south:

Link
Hello everyone, at home now and online but not staying up long... I am soooooo happy about TS Gamma going south of us and hopefully desolving into nothing...I will talke to everyone tomorrow... goodnight, Gamma (the good and now only one)
hello
Hi all, I am sure glad that it will miss S FL they have had enough like the rest of us...
66. dcw
OMG @ models!!!
good grief...um, guess a good thing Gamma isn't heading here..been pouring.....for a good hour, raining all night..we have flood watches/warnins whatever.......in the east......at least 2-3 inches of rain
Chaser....no problem, not happy with 'Canes performance tonight.:( ......my kids are 18 (boy) almost 12 (girl)...
69. dcw
My forecast for this evening, which can be found, as always, at The AHC website:

Tropical Storm Gamma
Amateur Hurricane Center
Advisory 6 - Midnight EST November 20, 2005

Gamma continues to hold on, despite massive southwesterly shear. Though the system looks truly terrible on satellite imagery...RECON found flight-level winds as high as 53kt...so Gamma is a 40kt Tropical Storm for this advisory. It is worth noting that the low forecast to develop into a strong nor'easter is beginning to form. Several relocations of the center have been made today,

The track forecast looked fairly simple this evening, with the storm tracking NE or ENE through the western caribbean into Cuba. However...18z models have...apparently...gone completely insane. The great majority of reliable models, including the GFDL and GFS ensamble, have lined up around a scenario unheard-of in tropical history...with the storm tracking nearly due southward past 24 hours, and the system reaching South America from the north as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. The models do occasionally have fluke runs, or bad data, so the track forecast will take the system over Cuba for now...but if the trend persists a large southward shift will have to be made.

The intensity forecast is also problematic. Should Gamma move east-northeastward as is currently forecast, vertical shear should destroy the circulation within 36 hours. However, a southeast motion may get the system away from the shear quickly enough to save Gamma, and give it...for a third time...a shot at hurricane strength. The current forecast calls for dissipation off the Cuban coast, followed by a rapid northward motion over the atlantic as a remnant low before being absorbed by the extratropical low mentioned above.

Initial: 16.0N 85.0W 40kt
12 Hour: 16.5N 84.5W 35kt
24 Hour: 17.5N 83.5W 30kt...dissipating
48 Hour: 19.0N 79.0W 25kt...remnant low
72 Hour: 22.0N 76.0W 25kt...remnant low
96 Hour: 27.0N 75.5W 30kt...being absorbed
120 Hour: Absorbed by extratropical low
still too close for comfort..heard from the roofer tonight though, hopefully a signed contract tomorrow or Monday....
dwc, keep your postings on AHC, those interested will go there to read them, you have caused enough trouble here to stay away till your ego shrinks to the size of your brain
what is a "wrong-way-Lenny track?
welcome to the hotel california
tell em willtell
sry an help typing the eagles lol
welcome to the hotel california such a lovely place such a lovely face living it up at the hotel california
77. dcw
"dwc, keep your postings on AHC, those interested will go there to read them, you have caused enough trouble here to stay away till your ego shrinks to the size of your brain"

Well, my ego will certainly still be larger than yours at that point. What trouble, other than the breif argument with TornadoTony, are you referring to?
hey be nice everybody and dcw you should go for a while to air out a bit ya know what i mean bro
79. dcw
"what is a "wrong-way-Lenny track?"

"Wrong-way" Lenny was a November 1999 storm which formed in the western caribbean and tracked eastward through the caribbean until exiting through the Windwards. It nearly acheived Category 5 strength at one point (DONT EVEN THINK ABOUT IT, GAMMA)
hey thrre boldman..I see youre still up..lol...ohh thats right its only late for me..lol:)
yeah still up lol will be
Im sorry Billsfan..the canes will be fine as usual. Thats awesome that you were and are blessed with one of each. :)
hurricanechaser you got mail come to my blog
I bet youre listening to some tunes as well ..would they be too far fetched to assume?..lol
heck yeah chaser tuns are the way to go lol
hey David..I just read your mail...I will come there roght now..see you ion your blog..actually mylittle girl just got out of bed..can you give me another 15 minutes or so..I will either look here or in your blog when I return..ok?
ok go be daddy lol see ya later
ok how old is your little girl if you do not mine by askiny do?
thanks as always boldman..Ill be back if not too late..I promised David i'd visit his blog when I get bk.. i love being daddy....need to find more time to listen to some cool music..Ill leave with a question...if i dont return here Boldman..please leave me a reply on my blog if youd like... Have you been gifted musically...lie playing instruments or singing etc. Only instrument I can play is the cd player and my wife doesn't even want to hear me sing in the shower. Still love music nonetheless...lol
i can only play a cd player too lol dont play no stuff lol
ok..i got to get her back to bed..shes 4 and a half..no way I love talking about my family..thank you so much for asking David...If I don't see any of you on when I get back..have a goodnight boldman, and the others...
David..Ill come to your blog when I get back.
ok see ya chaser
Chaser....thanks, but there will be moments, as it is for all of us, one day you will say to your wife "why did we have kids?"...been there done it. but LOVE them


Canes are toast......doesn't matter now........they've been relegated to a 2nd/3rd tier bowl game....not good enough for UM

Anyone else in Broward getting rain? wow....at least 2-3 inches here....or so it seems....letting up now....flood warning in effect
hurricanechaser get back from where?
dcw, please keep posting here....I'm getting tired of signing up for other sites, remembering passwords and all that.....

poeple, if you don't like or agree with someone, just scroll past it, believe me, I wish I had ignore and auto delete for a poster, but I don't, the site doesn't.....STOP complaining.......grow up...I'm tired, cranky, went through hurricanes, lost my roof, dealing with all the bad with insurance, will be forced out of my house due to mold, just in time for Christmas....so be grateful for what YOU have and stop the nonsense...
oh wow bills
billsfaninsofla if you are think of movie out of FL come to CA i think you may like it more in ca then where you are at now and ca do not get hurricane this big winter storm and and hot summer an some time nic weather to and cold weather so come on out to ca
Billsfan~ I hope your tarps hold for the coming rain. The east coast, all the way up, is in for a storm.
billsfaninsofla all about movie to SAN FRANCISCO CA they do not get no hurricane at all in the summer time and if you ask why they do not get hurricane in ca the water temp is to cold to have them so any way movie out of FL and come to ca you will like it more her in ca give me a e mail on this some time on sunday ok

so goood night all got get some zzzzzz
see ya david
101. dcw
"billsfaninsofla if you are think of movie out of FL come to CA i think you may like it more in ca then where you are at now and ca do not get hurricane this big winter storm and and hot summer an some time nic weather to and cold weather so come on out to ca"

Apparently, it also lacks grammar classes. Could you at least run a spellcheck before you post?
dcw, leave Zeta in peace, he's a nice kid. What makes you think your superior to him? Your spelling? Give us a break!
103. dcw
I don't think I'm superior to him...I'd like to be able to read his posts. It really isn't too much to ask that he follow the rules of the english language.
Do you know how old he is? I do, and can tell you it IS too much to ask, and also very cruel
105. dcw
How old is he? I don't know many people capable of typing who are not also capable of legible posts.

Now, on Gamma: it's gone. The recon found 35kt flight-level and the convection is dissipating. I'm keepin it a depression for now, but I think it'll dissipate within 12-24 hours.
dcw, he's very young and thus obviously talented.
Apparently, it also lacks grammar classes
I and can give you a quick lesson: the word "it" is not used for people, but things. Zeta is not an "it".
Good night, no sense in talkimng to someone who has an imperative need to always be right...
dcw, you have mail.
Gamma has done the "wrong-way" Lenny trick
wow, funny when storm threatening there does not seem to be fightin' but, as soon as we in the clear here we goooooooooo Cant we all just get along..................
Uh-oh, Banana slugs.

man I just saw latest track & just gotta say very releived.
Hope this is finally it for this season!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
yo dcw wasn't I talkin to u today about the global warming??
new blog up
happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!