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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Gamma has formed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:28 PM GMT on November 18, 2005

Hello everyone, it's Shaun again.

Gamma is here!

A hurricane hunter investigating the remnants of Twenty-seven discovered the system has re-organized into a broad area of low pressure. The aircraft also observed winds of 49 knots at 1500 feet along with a couple other areas of 45 knots winds north of the center. These two bits of information have lead to the issuing of advisories for Tropical Storm Gamma.

Gamma has formed in an area of strong wind shear (15-25 kt) and models forecast the wind shear to increase over the next few days.

Models handle the storm in very different ways. What the models do agree on is the strong high pressure north of Gamma is expected to weaken over the next few days. A trough is then expected to move into the Southeast. The official NHC forecast reflects the GFDL which turns the storm towards Florida. But it doesn't not represent the GFDL in some way as the GFDL takes the storm over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Some of the other models do not even strengthen the storm due to the high wind shear that is forecast, and the GFS takes it east across the Caribbean.

The moral of the story is that it is too early to tell what the storm is going to do. We will have to wait for a few more model runs to make a better guess.

I tend to be a little pessimistic on the intensity of these types of storms until some further development occurs, and you can definately see uncertainty in the NHC discussion.

Nonetheless, it is quite impressive to take a look at the GFDL in the long term to see the heck of a Nor-easter over the Northeast with the help of the remnants of Gamma.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thank you for getting us updated!!!
Wow this is unbelievable! Hate it for all in South Florida.
Dr Masters,
is that you or one of your staff posting for you? I thought you were going on vacation this week?
I guess we all need to just wait this one out and see what happens. I can't believe this.
Gamma (the good one)
Thats someone else, and their saying bad words.........ummmmmmmmmmmm
this (gamma) could end up being just as big or bigger in the northeast as in florida. certainly could see ts-force winds if it winds up into a big nor'easter.
Hey, Dr. J, the weather is supposed to be nice in PR! What are you doing working???
We DO, however, ::G:: appreciate your input!
Let's hope that TS Gamma DIES/DISSIPATES!!!
Screw you gamma!
This is absolutely unbelivable for those of us in South Florida. ENOUGH.
yes weatherboyfsu it's like dejavu with Wilma last month as far as the storm potentially putting its energy into east coast cyclogenisis. As we know that never materialized but if it does this time, lookout!

Does anybody know what the latest date is for a tropical sytem to make landfall on the US mainland?



here for the new post are the predictions so far, will be back in to update later tonight:

Predicted Minimum Pressures for TS Gamma (in mb):

LakeWorthFinn: 972
snowboy: 965
seflagamma: 983
tornadoty: 986
Jedkins: 989
sngalla: 982
SWFLKR: 974
rwdobson: 988
msuengineer: 980

minimum pressure to date: 1004 mb (as TD27)
Doesn't sound good for Maine either.
Posted By: BwanaDogSWFLA at 10:30 PM GMT on November 18, 2005.
"Has anyone seen Jim Cantore??????"

I am having a beer with him right now in Cape Coral.
anyone thinking snow?
CANEMAN!!! LOL!!! You gotta specify TS Gamma!!!
To keep Gamma away, we must keep an eye on Jim Cantore!!LOL
uh oh.... if there is a moderator reading this blog, my 3 year old daughter just accidently marked something as spam or obscene. I'm not sure which entry it was, I just saw her click and then a message came up that someone would look into my complaint. Sorrrrrry!!!!!
Thank you very much CG! I was about to tell him that same thing. don't want people confusing me with TS Gamma!
LOLOLOL
Gamma (the good one)
LWFinn!!! We want pix!!!
It may be Hurricane Kate, Nov 21, 1985. Actually made it all the way to the FL panhandle, which is surprising for such a late hurricane.
So unbelievable that an actual Tropical Storm has developed this late in the season! Sure am keeping my fingers crossed that it just goes away and dies, worst being some rain here in S. Florida. After unpredictable Wilma though, I don't rule anything out anymore! I personally thought Wilma would of been much weaker!
I am thinking snow. White thanksgiving in most of Pennsylvania looking likely.

bad three-year-old baaadd!!! wonder who it was... LOL
Ok, time for me to bolt from work.

My prediction: Gamma never becomes a hurricane, grazes the keys or maybe extreme S florida, then heads on out. Good luck to all you floridians.
models keep shifting to the left but according to a lot of predictions i've been hearing they say possibly ending as wet snow in cities like Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston
BwanaDogSWFLA tell Cantore I invite him to spend a week in Finland. I'm serious. Will cost me less that Wilma damage!
I dought it will bother the northeast,wilma was supposed to and it never did,and I thought it wouldn't so I will go with the same situation for gamma.
cgables, what pix?
gables, it not me but Bwana who's having the beer... unfortunately lol
This can not be true! We just put our extra gas in the car today.
Elliston, it WonderYakuza who checks the spam reports and he knows when it's a mistake. I've clicked twice by error, sent him an email and he said no problem, hapens every once in a while
gamma, i'm sure caneman didn't mean you, but really, woman... get your evil twin under control... LOL
Snowboy put me down for 991 mb
i wanted 972, but finn beat me to it, so i will say it'll slow down a bit and drop to 968... and i darn well better be wrong!!!
Mousey, I'm working on her!! I demanded that she just fade away and not bother any of us any more. We don't have the time to spend, nor do we have the money to spend getting all of our supplies together again!
The "good" Gamma
Hi StSimmons, wpbwx, long time no see
right, gamma... my evil twin hit PA not long after i was born and took the roof off the row of houses next to ours... we want yours to learn some manners and not go where she's not wanted... mouse
This is crazy! Wonder how this one will play out
Snowboy put me in for 950-970mb
my sources for Katrina deaths....

http://www.dhh.louisiana.gov/news.asp?Detail=746

and children still missing

http://www.alternet.org/wiretap/28379

Total dead from Katrina 1,329

Missing: 4,679
katrina... isn't that a large spread?
New GFDL run takes it much further south
Snowboy where are you put me in for 975mb
wow another storm! Are we in for it again South Florida???
I'm from Tallahassee, I was born right before Kate, My mom and dad took pictures of me sitting on a 100 foot pinetree
be for we got the G storm did this come from what was td 27 or is a new one like td 28 then the G storm? any one
No this went straight to TS Gamma
48. OGal
990 for OGal
I'll take 999 please.
I'll say 984
If wind shear decreases
Link

Check this out. It the latest and earleist in season tropical systems in history. Hmmm why do I see Dec 2005 or before June 1 2006 on this list in the near future??
I will throw 979 into the guess poll.



963 please
Time to crank up the generator, chill the white wine and hope for the best in SW Florida (Cape Coral). Geez, only a TS. Chill, guys...

-Dr. Bob
Good link SWFLKR. Thanks. That 1925 storm seems similar to Gamma:

1925 Nov. 29 - Dec. 4. Tropical storm forms in the western Caribbean, moves north, becomes a Category 1 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico late on Nov. 30, shortly before hitting just south of Tampa Bay, Fla. It crosses Florida, weakening to a tropical storm and becames a Category 1 hurricane again the morning of Dec. 1 when it moves over the Atlantic Ocean off St. Augustine, Fla.. It follows the East Coast and weakens to a tropical storm before hitting the southern end of the North Carolina Outer Banks the morning of Dec. 2 before turning east over the Atlantic to die. The storm is blamed for about 50 deaths, mostly on ship
980mb for me and do any one her from Lefty the last or hard from him i this hop he is ok
985 for me.....Can't believe this! See what happens when you go off to work?!
3 year old is now in bed and should not be reporting any further spam this evening!
978 for me please
palmetto, see what happens each time I go off to Finland :)
hey katrina rita, etc.

Tropical Storm Gamma organized directly from Tropical Depression 27...it went from remnants of TD 27 to Gamma because of the closed circulation found by aircraft and 40 mph sustained surface winds...meaning if they only found 35 mph surface winds...it would've been called TD 27 once again.
Hey Palmetto,

I want to thank you so much for the thoghtful emails and comments you've left in my blog encouraging and thinking about my safety when I intercepte Wilma, etc.

You are a blessing to know..thank you so much :)
Any time, Chaser! :-)
LWFinn, am back and catching up.
the pix of you and Cantore having that beer!!! LOL
chaser,

being new to the blog, i didn't know that you actually did it for a living... but now that i do, let me officially say thank YOU for risking YOUR life to provide us with information that can save OURS... you are a true hero in my book...

mouseybabe
LOL gablesgal, did you see the clarification? It wasn't me having the beer with Cantore, but I told Bwana to send him here so Gamma would miss FL :)
Think I might dip my toes in the water and try a little prognostication here. Thinking the track won't deviate much from what the NHC is showing, and don't think this will get very strong at all. Mostly just a gut feeling, rather than actual meteorological knowledge. Women's intuition? We'll see. Though, I didn't like what I saw on the gfdl for the northeast later on, if I was interpreting the model correctly.
gee, windnwaves, glad the experts were right about it not taking wilma's path...LOL... just yanking your chain.. i'm as upset about this as the rest of the residents here, maybe moreso with my rocking trailer...
oh, LWF, now I'm totally corn-fused about who Cantore is drinking beer with and where!!! LOL!!!
I think there's a pretty good limit to just how bad it can get with the SST's so low now. She has to go north to get into FL and that means cooler temps and more shear right now. So in my highly uneducated opionion, I think it's be a nasty rainmaker for the keys, but not anything more.
no offense but do any one think that this would be come a cat 1 or a low cat 2 hurricane?
i think there's a possibility, but i'm capable of believing six impossible things before breakfast... actually, i'm trying not to think about it, but there is a possibility, and some models predict more strengthening than others... i'm rooting for the ones that say it will lose power and go away...
of course, if you believe the GDFL, it's just going to sit and spin in the Yucatan, which wouldn't be great news for them.
Cantore is a weather man he work at twc and he do live update where there is a hurricane come to FL or TX or some where on the gulf to keep all of you safe and right now he is back at twc
cantore's welcome here for a beer, but all i have in the house is guinness stout and newcastle brown ale...
no offense on my last post that i this did
mousey and windnwaves,
trust me, am trying to make light of TS Gamma here, but unlike Dr. Bob, am not suggesting anyone chill as I am fully aware of the anxieties we face with any potential rains and/or winds of any strength. Nothing is anywhere near normal in the tricounty area in SE FL so just ignore the comments of those who don't get it...
"will lose power" Mousey don't SAY that FPL might hear you!!!
81. dcw
Interesting trivia: This year's Alpha wasn't the first:

Link
ROFLMAO cgables... don't worry, they never listen to me... mousey
KRWZ - I don't think anyone took offense. We just aren't thinking in terms of Cat 1 and 2 right now. And we were joking around about Cantore!
Trying to figure out how bad a TS would be down in Broward right now. On one hand, the trees were already pruned by Wilma and we can normally handle a tropical storm without blinking.

However, we have thousands of trees that are staked up and others may have loosened root structures. And, as someone mentioned, we still have debris everywhere. I still have all my broken roof tiles sitting at the end of my driveway as well as bags of tree debris and branches. As for electricity, I don't know about anyone else but the work they did to get my electricity running is obviously temporary work. My community's power is underground but the poles outside the neighborhood are the feeders. Probably a good 30 poles went down in Wilma. Now we have all these wires just hanging low. The poles aren't completely back up. Most of us have used up our hurricane supplies so I suspect it will be a madhouse this weekend. Finally, while our homes are usually built pretty strong and can handle a TS without problem, they are not currently in great condition. My house only sustained some minor roof damage as did all my neighbors. EVERYONE has loose roof tiles which turn into lovely window breaking tiles during a storm and also break the neighbor's tiles when they land on their roofs. Not to mention that the tiles won't stay on if they are already lifted up courtesy of Wilma.

So, in short, for all those that think we are being ridiculous about a mere tropical storm, please try to keep in mind that Gamma would be hitting an area already wounded. I'm sure our friends to the north that were hit by both Frances and Jeanne last year can verify this.
MOUSEY,

I'm sorry I was away after saying ty to sweet Palmetto..

Thank you so much for the thoughtful comment as well.

The real hero is a person who has a kind heart like both you and Palmetto and I actually cover the storms for Fox News...although I won't be down there unfortunately for Gamma although I personally don't think at this time it will a real significant threat to Fl.
i'm looking at the TAOS map, and it looks like the GDFL has moved down to Cuba... anybody see this anywhere else?
hey all what's happenin lol k never again

but seriously...hi
i see but could this be come a cat 1 or cat 2 hurricane yes or no
My best educated Guess as I always say about any forecaster regardlesss of experience as a result of the inexact science that is tropical meteorology.

At this time, I am expecting Gamma to stay south of the Fl. coast....crossing Cuba and more of a threat to the Bahamas.. although the keys could be impacted.
hanks chaser... fox was my source for coverage after katrina, i thought you all did an excellent job... and that, too, was putting yourselves in harm's way to help save lives by getting accurate information to the public and the officials... i lost my satellite service in wilma, and i haven't had tv since, except for a very fuzzy local channel... i really miss it... mouse
KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta:
I think a category one is definately possible. I have a feeling this season's got one suprise left.........
Katrina, etc.,

Short answer..yes..its not impossible for Gamma to reach hurricane strength..just very unlikely to achieve much stronger intensity given strong shear and will be crossing cooler sea surface temperatures as it moves out of the Carribean.. and if it crosses Cuba as I anticipate..that will certaintly weaken further. If it were to take the NHC's current forecast track.then I'd expect a slightly stronger storm because it would avoid the land mass of Cuba but the shear and cooler sst should keep it below hurricane strength...with cat one being the most I think it could achieve.
I do understand that, with all the wind damage from Wilma, S FL is in no shape to deal with more wind, or heavy rain, in any shape or form, TD, TS or higher. Been through these things myself, and I know how the anxiety levels rise for folks dealing with damage.
coco, you are right about the hazards of all that debris, not to mention structures and trees that have been compromised by wilma... and some of you had serious roof damage, so y'all don't need that rain, either... i was fortunate that my roof stayed on, even after being hit by my neighbor's roof... of course, i was here in the mobile home (idiot) praying for some really strong angels to hold it on for me...

even a TS can cause serious problems right now...

on the bright side, i am having my car windshield replaced saturday so i can evacuate and my satellite dish replaced the same day... lol... talk about bad timing!
thanks again MOUSEY

Where did you experience Wilma if I may ask? and I'm sorry you've had to live under difficult circumstances after her impact..thankful things aren't worse.
CocoCreek, I am so fed-up with others NOT getting it and telling us what we are supposed to be doing.
So, yeah, we close our shutters and the loose roof ridge tiles take out. like you say, neighbors' windows or our own cars. They are still up there as they are too heavy to have to take them all down and then haul back up and reattach... And forget about the debris still out there. And the damaged homes and folks like mousey who have a real serious concern. Folks who don't get MUST be ignored and those of us who DO, we stick together. We know what is what.
GACK!!! chaser!! Mybahamas won't be happy to read that!!! LOL!!!
chaser,

i'm in boynton beach, in a mobile home... and was stupid enough to stay for the storm, because we were told evacuation was VOLUNTARY and that winds would probably be TS force... we fared better than many others, and we are well and recovering from the damage...

but we will not be in the home for gamma, even as a TS... i am disabled (hit by a drunk driver) so i need to use my brain for something other than warming the inside of my skull! i couldn't "run for cover" if i had to!!

mouseybabe
Cgables: I know. My relatives up north barely even knew that Wilma hit. We took down our broken tiles by lowering them down in a bucket but we left the loose ones to protect the roof from the sun. Those are the ones I am worried about. I have an s-tile roof and where the two tiles are supposed to meet tightly they are all separated on the entire south side of my house. My concern is if the wind comes in the same direction it can get right under the tiles know and rip them up. Ugh... Kansas is really starting to look good. :)
You all make such excellent points...no tropical system should be discounted because of it not achieving hurricane status...

Tropical storm Allison caused over $5 billion in damages and took more than 25 lives in the process if not more if I remember correctly as it stalled over the HOuston area. Moreover, Tropical Storm Agnes of 1972 killed over 100 people as well as Camille as a weakened TD as it flooded areas around Virginia and claimed another 100 plus lives as well. HUrricane Floyd killed over 50 people here in NC after it weakened to a cat 2 prior to landfall and was down to cat one when it continued to create masive river flooding in many inland towns and holds the record here in our state as the most costly storm with more than $4.5 billion.
Put me down for...eh...994mb. I think it'll flirt with Cat 1 status, and possibly (4:1 against) acheive it, but I think we're out of the hurricanes and into TS's and STS's now.

Jason
Mousey,

I'm so sorry to hear that you were disabled as a result of anothers selfishness and immaturity. I will be praying for you and whats worse is the majority of people act disabled where it counts most..in their hearts..which certainly isn't the case with you and are an inspiration by your kindness and positive attitude.
i was living in PA when agnes hit... worked on clean-up detail, where they had the entire first floor of their homes filled to the top with mud! any area with hills can get flash floods, mudslides, etc... we watched agnes pushing cars down the street.... not nice
Hey Jason

I believe thats a very plausible scenarion and an excellent observation.
I'm sorry guys that I type so poorly..its annoying for me to read my comments and see so many typos..I try to type too fast with two fingers and have too many ypos as a result.
I wil try to updat my blog late tonight ..most likely tomorrow on my expectations for Gamma...I hope each one of you have a great night and sleep well in the process.
stop, it chaser, or you'll have me in tears... you are so sweet...

the thing about life is there is no guarantee you'll have no troubles... you play the hand you're dealt, keeping in mind that the odds are always with the house... if you have food and shelter and the love of at least one other soul, you've got what you need...

but it has occurred to me that this year is the first time we've not had mice living with us, and it's the first year we've had any damage... so maybe it's time to open our home to a few of those gentle souls...

ok, done philosophizing... i'm gonna relax the rest of the evening so i'll be ready for whatever challenges this weekend will bring... gonna sign off at 9 tonite...
Hi Folks, haven,t posted in awhile haven't had much activity since Wilma. having gone through Frances and Jeanne last year I feel for those of you facing another double from Gamma, although we did a bit of a pounding up here from Wilma, nothing like last year or you in S. Fl this year. When Jeanne was coming last year everyone was relly worried about all the pile of debris fom Fran still around. I had lost a tree in my front yard and had finished cutting it up and piled it near the road. I was worried that it would fly all over the neighborhood, so I bough some cable and stakes and tied the pile down, it didn't budge and not because of my precautions either. lol. For that matter all the piles all over the county pretty much stayed put through Jeanne. Reason being everything was so entertwined that the wind would have to pick up the whole pile. As far as roof tiles and blue roofs, that's bad. People who escaped serious damage from Frances were nailed by Jeanne because of loose shingles and minor damage that escalated because it hadn't been fixed yet. But the best anybody can do is prepare the best they can and hope for the best. Perhaps Gamma will stay souh through the straits and everyone can put this season behind us. Hope and pray for the best for all.
109. code1
Hey all, haven't been hit here since July with Dennis and some are still having problems. Even before Dennis, there was still extensive damage from Ivan. I feel your pain in SFL. Most thought we were just whiners up here. Now, the ones that said that, are having to eat their words unfortunately. I wouldn't wish these storms on a worst enemy!!! I believe all of FL and the Gulf Coast region knows now.
Well, well.. the gangs all here.

Ain't nothing like being in the cone of doom to bring people back :)
111. code1
Hi sebastian, long time no see. Hope all is well with you.
MOUSEY,

Thank you for saying that..

Honestly, I believe anyone is capable of doing something nice for another or saying something nice as well..but it takes someone truly special like yourself to have such a compassionate heart to appreciate those things and I totally agree with your philosphy about life. I gotta go for now but I hope you all have a wonderful evening.
I was looking at the projections for the movement of that cold front that is drifting our way this weekend, and somehow I think Gamma is going to head off a bit more to the east or west than the current forecast track. It seems to be hinged on timing, of course. But that track across Cuba and through the Central or Southern Bahamas would not be unusual for this time of year.

The only good side of this from the Bahamian point of view is that the bad side would be much less likely to impact already Wilma-ravaged Grand Bahama. Well, there is that Cuba may provide a bit more of a deterrent to development than the relatively open waters of the FL straits . . .
goodnight chaser.. and everybody else... i'm off before i start obsessing...

mouse
Link

here's a nice update on gamma from Brian Norcross. Look for the little video link
Thanks Code, everything fine, except I have acouple jobs I'm working on that aren't ready for a TS, coming this way, lol. Wilma kind of surprised us up here, had some 100 + winds we weren't expecting but nothing like Broward or dade,was down there last week they look like the got a good wallup.
Hi,

I live in Palm Beach Gardens, and we were whacked back to back with Frances and Jeanne. I would like to add a ironic bright side to this storm.....Most of our debris at the end of the street stayed there during Jeanne. We also didn't have as much to clean up because Frances had taken down the landscaping that was going to not survive strong winds......

As far as loss of power, we lost power for 7 days (see screen name) for Frances, but only 4 for Jeanne, and it was 3 1/2 for Wilma so FPL does do real repairs.

The power company workers from out of state are going to be away from their families a tad bit longer I suspect, however.
Another bright side is that I never got around to refilling my fridge and freezer so I don't have to worry about losing anything. :)
7days: did the tarps stay on roofs?
My fridge is full.....of soda, water, and condiments:)
dos any one no where snowboy is he need to putme in for 970-990mb any would like to play
Yes, they did!!!! More than one of my friends said they didn't have any leaks:) They also were suprised that the tarp kept the wind out too.

lol, 7days!

I went 6 days with Wilma. The food wasn't too bad the first few days b/c everyone brought all the good stuff from the fridge and freezer b/c it was going to go bad. In fact, one neighbor made a seafood dish with all sorts of great stuff in it and even cooked linguini on the grill. I hope gamma doesn't hit b/c I'll be eating ketchup on ritz crackers.. yummy!
hi coco, sebastian - good to see you
atmos, progressive - havents seen your posts for days
I still can't believe Gamma will make it to FL, but maybe I'm just in denial after our losses with Wilma
Glad to hear that about the tarps. My sister's roof was down to bare wood in parts. Operation Blue Roof just put a tarp on yesterday. Just in time!
Hi Lakeworth! I haven't been around since Wilma. It's nice to see everyone back.
I am a coach, and one of my cheerleaders left her cooler which supplied water at a football game. She repeatedly forgot to pick it up to my benefit. It kept ice for four days straight. She's never getting it back now.

We had constant block parties because with no fences around, the neighborhood went from yard to yard to get what we needed whether it was a hot shower (you really appreciate those after 3 days of cold ones) or the generator that was using the TV to entertain the kids.
128. code1
The tarps do pretty well believe it or not in a TS, if it is not too strong.
Hi everyone!!
hurricanechaser,

you said: "I'm sorry guys that I type so poorly..its annoying for me to read my comments and see so many typos"

My comment--keep feeding and quit rereading. I believe your audience appreciates your informative commentary and fully comprehends your posts, "proofed" or not.

Thanks for taking the time to share your well researched and insightful thoughts.

LC
Hi Finn, sorry didn't get your mail about gas until it was too late to help you anyway.
131. wpb05
this thing will not knock power out...will be a quick weak TS over us
It will if you live in the People's Republic of Lake Worth.
LMAO 7daysnopowerfrancis!
134. wpb05
well, I don't........live at summit and military, but not in lake worth, and on the same grid as a fire station...only lost power for three days last time
That was definitely a nice thing. Neighbors really pulled together. We did the same thing. We just put our patio table on the driveway and had communal dinners and lunches every day. The kids loved it. I didn't mind the electricity so much but I hated the boil water order. We didn't have any water pressure for a couple days and then you couldn't drink it. I had wanted to make use of the time to do some good cleaning but didn't want to put that water all over my house.

I don't know about the power. By me it is obviously a temporary fix. The poles all snapped and they just have the wires sort of hanging everywhere. They are still using generators at the traffic lights.
FPL played a nasty joke on us. We had power for 1/2 hour after Wilma. Then it went off again for 2 days. It was embarrassing. I did the power dance, and they took that away from me.
Not power-dance-interruptus!!
Alas, my 2 year is demanding a bubble bath. I must attend to my parental duties....

Have a great night all.
139. dcw
If anyone wants to forecast for the -hopefully- last storm of the season...Link
Goodnight, 7 days!
Try to get a little vacation and look what happens, I can't freakin believe it, anyone's input on the future of Gamma. Stressed out West Palm Resident here, Flying home on Sunday evening.
is it next week the last week of the hurricane year?
There is supposed to be an update at 10pm. Hopefully, gamma decided to go home for Thanksgiving!

Yes, hurricane season ends on the 31st but at this rate I wouldn't be surprised by a Christmas storm. :)
you mean the 30th and any one see snowboy at all he need to put me in for 970-990mb
Last frames in the loop, appears to be flaring up a bit.
Dirunal max should be taking effect.
I think they moved the cone south
Link
ok all the 10pm up date is now her winds up to 150mp cat 4 hurricane 905mb not this jokeing


her it is 10 pm winds 45 mph 1006mb movieing NW at 4 mph and 29.70in this is the the right one
CCFL, they did and it lokks like they slowed it down too, later in the day Monday before landfall.
to all tose who complain about FPL, welcome to Lake Worth. We are totally independent of FPL - and totally scr...d, some people still without power!
hi...saw the posts about the tarps...even with all the rain we received lately tarps have done their job, but , a big BUT, my husband has the tarps tied to the hurricane awnings which we plan to put down, but like coco's sister, 2/3 of our roof gone to bare wood.....and please forgive me if I've duplicated a post.....just stressed out. I think we'd be OK with this storm maybe not boarding up, to try to keep the tarps in place to save whatever we can, but some much twisted debris all around.......any advice? (we're trying to get what we can out, just in case, but)
I keep wanting to bite my tongue when people say "it's only a TS". Wilma was "only a TS" in a very similar location a couple weeks ago; 24 hours later she was the strongest recorded storm in the Atlantic basin.
Wow, nice to see so many familiar names again. Welcome back. I really can't stay on late; got work again early tomorrow. When I got off around 7pm tonight I did fill up my car; it was really low anyway and needed it. Then I stop at Publix on way home to replenish my water and sodas and papergoods. Stupid me, I gave away most of my non-parishable goods a week ago along with a few other suplies to people that really needed them. But I am sure we can make it a week with food and drinks. If it continues to develope must get 8 bags of ice to fill my really good big cooler (keeps for 5-6days). Also hubby must get those gas cans refilled. Too much work to do; thought it was over for the year! LOL..
If it is still coming tomorrow I know the stores will be crazy when I get off tomorrow night that is why I did it tonight; just to be a little safe!
I will be lurking for awhile. Again, good to see everyone.
Gamma (the good one)
I'm just waiting for the discussion to update. Somehow I think that may take a while . . .
Baha..don't bite your tongue....we all need to give them heck...I don't care what anyone says, Gamma was Gamma at 11 am (perhaps earlier)....they didn't name it until 3 PM, which forced numerous South Florida cities to call emergency meetings at 4PM to go into "Tropical Storm/Hurricane Alert"......stupid......and just watch, maybe they've learned , but I doubt it, how long it will take for TS or I hope not Hurricane warnings to go up.....
156. code1
Smart move Gamma. I emptied gas into cars, thawed gallon jugs of ice to put jugs (I keep them now!), ran generator for an hour with load and put away last of plywood this past weekend. Hope I won't have to do what you are doing later in Dec., and hope for all of S. FL for this to be a non-event. It is always better/easier to prepare before the masses. :)
Gamma.......we're filled up on gas cans and food...biggest thing for us is to have to relocate....we don't dare ride it out here...depends on how strong...I have plenty of everything, perhaps except nerves at this point
no hurricane this time around this may be some winds up to 40 to 50 mph and that wound be all from this storm and big snow storm next week
Billsf. . . .

All I can say is, I'm with the people who are doing the prep. We've had years when, like Hurricane Michelle, we boarded up and bought water and everything, got into the lockdown position expecting at least category 2 winds. In the end the power didn't even go off until after the eye was gone and was on again in 24 hours.

But I'd rather be ready than be like some people in the Bahamas during Wilma, who thought it would be only a TS or a minimal Cat. 1 and had to swim for their lives in the middle of the storm because of the storm surge and heavy rains . . . .
Code...yep, absolutely.....I swear, I'm still working on my Wilma water supply, but more today, just in case....ran low on paper platers, got them...filled gas cans, most important, don't know where you are, but gas stations pretty active tonight...people can be stupid....they will be waiting in line for water after the storm,claiming they didn't know........
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The new discussion is up.
Baha....absolutely.....be prepared....short story, going back to Andrew 1992......forecasting was a bit more primitive then, I had 30 gallons of water, plus you name it everything else...my neighbors laughed.....well, had Andrew not wobbled Ft Laud could've been Homestead....you can never over-prepare.....after watching Homestead, neighbors never laughed again....
sorry Baha.......don't know if I trust their conservative outlook..hope they are right.
I agree with bills...they said the same thing with Wilma and look what it did and came on the coast as.
7days seems a bit confused... jeanne and francis did more damage fpl-wise in the north county last year, but wilma was worse in the south... we were 3 days no power for francis, 3 hours for jeanne.. 7 days for wilma (and my son in hollywood was over two weeks w/o power)... just because one place got it more than another at one time doesn't mean others haven't had a rougher time this year... it wasn't that fpl did repairs faster, it was that the storm was worse in the south... just my two cents worth
just checked the 10pm update, and they are optimistic about it not strengthening... i hope they're right, but like some others here, i will hope for the best but plan for the worst... and on that note, i am off to bed... have a good night everyone...
One...no kidding.......do not trust them....sorry..I understand their position, they have to be "accountable" ..that's what they say....yes, tell people to prepare for the worst, hope for the best....times and storms are not what we have known as "normal" now....times, she be a changing.....

I rely on sites like this, not local news or NHC..where are you One?
well i am out of her so night to you all and if snowboy come back on would any of you tell him to put me down for 970-990mb thank you and good night to ever one
whats up everyone
Ladtchemist,

Thanks so much for the thoughtful comments..I will do just that..I hope you have a great weekend. Ill try to check bk in from time to time. YOu guys make this community what it is.



oops...Ladychemist..sorry, more typos..lol

thanks again.

Not sure if anyones still up..just wanted to leave the link to the latest forecast track from the NHC regarding Gamma that just came out taking her south of Fl.now trending away from the keys as of late.. Hope everyone has a great weekend..goodnight all.
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soory about that..lol..goodnight all :)
there has to be an end to this madness
...and the hits just keep on coming!!!