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Gabrielle forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:12 AM GMT on September 08, 2007

Subtropical Storm Gabrielle formed tonight, after a day-long struggle trying to figure out which of two centers to consolidate around. Gabrielle finally decided it would use both centers, and a very large and elongated circulation is the result. This makes Gabrielle a subtropical storm, since the heavy thunderstorm activity is well removed from the center of circulation. Had the storm been able to consolidate around a single center, it would have become a tropical storm, not a subtropical storm.

Wind shear is 10-20 knots over the storm. This shear, combined with the rather large and poorly-organized circulation, will not allow much intensification, and Gabrielle will have a tough time becoming stronger than a 55-mph storm at landfall.


Figure 1. Latest IR satellite image of Gabrielle.

I'll have a new blog Saturday morning by 9:30am.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for your 3rd update, 2nd late night update. We can always count on you.
IM STILL GOIN FISHING TOMMROW. MURRELLS INLET SC, ITS GONNA BRING A BREEZY DAY AND A FEW SPRINKLES!
dr m what do you think about the CV wave will you talk about it more on sat ????

from TWC on the CV wave

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, an area of tropical low pressure has emerged off of Africa, and is now drifting west into the eastern Atlantic. Some slow organization of this low will be possible over the next several days
Looking better for us now. NC appears to be the one to get first dibs.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 080316
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST COULD NOT FIND A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...REPORTING INSTEAD A VERY ELONGATED
CENTER. SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS
SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED...BUT IS STILL BROAD AND ELONGATED. THE
AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ABOUT 85 N MI NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1011 MB. BASED ON THE
LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...AND THE
PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...THE SYSTEM
IS DESIGNATED A SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 40 KT.

GABRIELL IS MOVING 300/8 BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO RECURVE
AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING RIDGE DURING THE
NEXT 48-72 HR. THE MODELS DISAGREE...HOWEVER...ON EXACTLY WHERE AND
WHEN THAT TURN WILL OCCUR. THE GFDL IS THE LEFTMOST SOLUTION WITH
A FORECAST TRACK INTO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 36 HR...
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFS CALL FOR LANDFALL
IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE GFDL TRACK MAY BE RESULTING FROM HAVING TOO
DEEP OF A VORTEX INITIALLY...WHICH RESULTS IN TOO MUCH STEERING
INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THUS...THE FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THE MORE EASTWARD SCENARIO OF THE OTHER MODELS.

THERE ARE CURRENTLY MANY NEGATIVE FACTORS INVOLVED IN THE FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT OF GABRIELLE. THE STORM HAS COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH
AT LOW LEVELS...VERY DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...IS EXPERIENCING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND IS
PASSING OVER WATERS THAT HAVE COOLED A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE AS
GABRIELLE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND THIS COULD OCCUR OVER THE DEEP
WARM WATER OF THE GULF STREAM. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 63 KT...THE GFDL 68 KT...AND THE HWRF 37 KT. GIVEN
ALL THE NEGATIVES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT NEAR
LANDFALL. AFTER RECURVATURE...GABRIELLE SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF CENTER REFORMATION
DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE SUCH REFORMATION
WOULD NOT CHANGE THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN...IT COULD HAVE AN
AFFECT ON IF AND WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 30.4N 72.2W 40 KT...SUBTROPICAL
12HR VT 08/1200Z 31.1N 73.7W 40 KT...SUBTROPICAL
24HR VT 09/0000Z 32.3N 75.5W 40 KT...SUBTROPICAL
36HR VT 09/1200Z 33.5N 76.8W 45 KT...TROPICAL
48HR VT 10/0000Z 35.0N 76.6W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 11/0000Z 37.5N 73.5W 40 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 12/0000Z 40.5N 67.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0000Z 43.0N 58.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

Thanks Dr. Masters for letting us know what you think this late in the eve
Thanks, Dr. Masters. I was wondering if you were going to update it. Nah, just kidding!
taz - did you scare everybody else away lol
good post Taz
thanks Taz. It beats looking up everything solo
how rare is it too have 2 SUBTROPICAL STORMS in a season??
thanks MT and BtnTx
RAin is coming!!!! To bad the rain wont come inland far to affect the more extreme drought.But eastern N.C does need rain.Now, the forcasters rulled out clouds reaching west N.C.


Thanks for the update.Off to bed.
taz - what was the other subtropical storm?
Posted By: Tazmanian at 3:25 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.

how rare is it too have 2 SUBTROPICAL STORMS in a season??


Last comment... Not sure but dont forget the 2 cat 5s. Weird.
The historical paths look cool. Like a big Atlantic spider
Yes, thank you Jeff for the 2nd late night update. This is a tricky one to forecast. It seems to be bringing out all the uncertainties inherently associated with the science.
Good work as usual, Taz.
Awww Gabby doesn't look as much like a beret anymore. Well off to bed for me. Looks like Gabby will make this weekend hot and dry!
Not that I wouldnt want the rain and a littl breeze - but I don't want 12 hours to clean everything up!
wow.. just got home from work..no one really expected this after all the hype. any news on that developing low in the gulf or the wave off africa...anything at all
This is a very odd storm.
subtropical storms are not exactly rare. when looking through the past years I have seen 2 subtropical storms in several years.
Subtropical Storm ANDREA and now Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE how rare is it to have 2 in a season???
It already looks like convection is consolidating around the center; the convection on the west is dissipating.
The Cape Verde wave will take a while, we'll know better by Sunday whether it will develop and have a threatening track.
capeverde wave probably the next major of the season yup. too far south to be a fish storm may hit the U.S.
Posted By: zoomiami at 8:27 PM PDT on September 07, 2007.

taz - what was the other subtropical storm?

Subtropical Storm ANDREA
any news on that developing low in the gulf or the wave off africa...anything at all

Well, here is what the NHC says about the wave off Africa; nothing about the Gulf yet:

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVED WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
Wow... i'm gonna eat the proverbial crow... I disregarded the potential for 2 COC's today... Good Doctor, I am humbled...
Just got back from having dinner... How does this look to you guys? What can we expect from Gabrielle???
subtropical means what? please ignore question if complicated and I will look up myself
Unfortunately, the rain estimates for this system are very samll. The QPF for 3 days shows only about .5 inches near the SE coasts.


Latest
Surface Analysis
Click to view latest surface analysis
Day 1 QPF
Click to view latest Day 1 QPF
Day 2 QPF
Click to view latest Day 2 QPF
Day 3 QPF
Click to view latest Day 3 QPF



Notes from MBuresh
Elsewhere...thunderstorms continue to flare with an elongated trough of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Some slow organization is possible but any system that might develop will move west.....

A tropical wave nearing the Central Atlantic & a 2nd one just off the Africa coast are moving west & have at least some potential for development.
stormyjm... weren't you headed to some dinner party awhile ago? ...hmmm... I feel like i just left work...
bedtime, night y'all.
I leave the blog for an hour and suddenly we have two areas of interest. Earlier we were all wondering what 99L was going to do and now Garielle "shows up." Where did she come from? I thought 99L was going to be Gabrielle (if it intensified) Thanks to anyone who responds.
Is the llc reforming around 74.5 x 29.5 ?
BtnTx


Extratropical:
A term used in advisories and tropical summaries to indicate that a cyclone has lost its "tropical" characteristics. The term implies both poleward displacement of the cyclone and the conversion of the cyclone's primary energy source from the release of latent heat of condensation to baroclinic (the temperature contrast between warm and cold air masses) processes. It is important to note that cyclones can become extratropical and still retain winds of hurricane or tropical storm force.

Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.

The most common type is an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

A second type of subtropical cyclone is a mesoscale low originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 30 miles. The entire circulation may initially have a diameter of less than 100 miles. These generally short-lived systems may be either cold core or warm core.

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).
Posted By: tampabayfish at 3:37 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.

stormyjm... weren't you headed to some dinner party awhile ago? ...hmmm... I feel like i just left work...

Yep, we left for our neighbor's and there was a block party... LOTS of fun and food and booze.. (hic-up)... Just got back. Actually had a great time, didn't think storm for a full 7 hours... Needed that break from the blog... I am glad you are here... What do you think of this? Will it be a marine event or a nuttin honey???
Thanks, Dr. Masters. I can see why they called it! It really had no choice but to develop! Sure, convection hasn't been over the llc that long, but that llc sure has been persistent! Too, the liquid real estate is not that plentiful if this thing flares up and gets stronger quickly...not much warning time! Lots of heavily populated areas along the eastern seaboard. DUE NOTICE is needed! IMHO, I think it's a GREAT CALL!!! If it fizzles, nothing's lost...and sure beats the possible "other" consequences!

WTG, NHC!
(MLC<----------tips hat, again to the NHC!)
Thanks for the late update Dr. M... Secretly, you are just one of us... watchin late on a friday night in September...
Taz...it's not rare. I can't remember a season when we DID NOT have at least 2 sub-tropical storms.
I think in this particular case the term Sub Tropical Storm is being used by the NHC because they need to call it something...but it's technically not anything...Not a STS, not a TS......at least right now. I do expect that the Sub Tropical designation will change to a regular Tropical Storm(a more well defined WC center will form in the next 6-36 hours, as the NHC is quietly stating in their advisory.
for as much grumbling, stilted hostility, and plain madness going on - it should be time for fireworks and balloosn!
Thanks Michael..i needed something new to fixate on..it beats reality t.v.lol. And TBFISH i believe everyone is at least eating a little crow over gabby.
stormyjm...
Worth watchin if your in the Carolinas (and by that I mean both 'Carolinas'). I left and came back too, the 'wife' is sleepin... GoMex is sleepin too...
I think Gabrielle is a SC landfall, looks to me like the llc is reforming around 74.5 x 29.5

weatherboykris - I am thankful for the info - I am glad it was not complicated - just kidding - the complexity of weather is amazing - I guess that is why we are all here on this blog
It seems Gabby won't be doing much--but be a rain producer for the Carolinas. I was thinking winds to 70mph. Once it's classified a SubTS, it likely never reaches Hurricane status. Gabby wanted to use 2 of her "centers"..lol
As underdeveloped as it looks, it looks harmless.
alright MLC time for some shut eye!
Taz, keep up the good work!
The reason for my comment was because WU still lists 99L and gabrielle on its tropics page. So do we have two separate systems or just a case of a page not being updated?
Tampa, do you think this is going to be a significant event for the Carolinas??? How about the disturbance in the Gulf... (I have a friend whose sister thinks the Gulf of Mexico is a PGA event in Tijuana... LOL....
I'm reposting the "Riders on the Storm" video Dr. Masters posted a few days ago of the Hurricane Hunters flying into Category 5 Felix, it's a must watch & forever saved on my computer..It's 7 minutes long..turn up the sound & and dont forget to click "save as" ! Enjoy !
RAMDIS is showing 8% for storm formation in the far E ATL
Central Pressure is 1011 mb. That's quite high.
thanks 03
Once it's classified a SubTS, it likely never reaches Hurricane status.

Not always:



Gustav formed as a subtropical storm on September 8 while about 440 nm southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The next day, Gustav had taken on more tropical characteristics and was reclassified as a tropical storm. It moved generally northwest over the next day, bringing it within a few miles of Cape Hatteras. Before making landfall, Gustav turned to the northeast and away from North Carolina. As it headed out to sea, Gustav strengthened over the warm Gulf Stream waters. It became a hurricane on September 11, the latest day a season's first hurricane formed since detailed records began in 1944. Gustav continued strengthening and peaked as a Category 2 hurricane. On September 12, it grazed eastern Nova Scotia, then made landfall at Newfoundland. Gustav lost all its tropical characteristics over Newfoundland, and dissipated three days later. In North Carolina, one person died from high surf and 40 people had to be rescued from the storm surge in Hatteras, with $100,000 dollars in damage occurring. Tropical storm force winds were felt in New York, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island, downing trees and damaging docks. Gustav was the first subtropical storm to be named by the National Hurricane Center. Previously, subtropical storms were not given names.
Gabby has disappointed me. All this watching and nothing but an STS Bah!
Now that the west blob is shearing out rapidly around the ULL, I think if there was a surface circulation it was there.

The eastern part is under a small ULH, and that part probably has the best chance to develop a surface circulation and strengthen. The western ULL part looks like it is heading straight for FL/GA, while the eastern part is moving more slowly towards the NNW.

By tomorrow I think we will see two distinct systems, the ULL heading WSW, and the ULH/Gabrielle part heading towards "the Carolinas" (do not know which one yet).

Too bad the eclipse is upon us when things are just getting interesting...

Check back in the morning, have a good night all!
Isn't it possible that Gabby could gain strength and become more than just a sub-tropical??? Is it all etched in stone????
Well, Michael, there are always exceptions. Gabby likely won't make it to Hurricane status, it has to become tropical first.
If any of you late nighters want to take a peek, I have updated my blog. I will have another full update tomorrow as well.
stormyjm..
I've shot the proverbial Sh#t about this thing before, but this is a Carolina Storm... probably a Pamlico/Albmarle/Pasquatanck storm.... A "bank scraper"... Not too strong, I lived on the bnx for awhile, you'll shake it off....
mda91, you should check out SJ learning links for starters.
I am new here..but have been lurking since Dean. I love this site and want to thank everyone for keeping things informative (in genral) and fun... very addictive. Anyways off to hit the rack. THanks again.
Posted By: fldoughboy at 3:58 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.

Well, Michael, there are always exceptions. Gabby likely won't make it to Hurricane status, it has to become tropical first.

How about a tropical storm? Could Gabby become that?
http://www.airshowbuzz.com/videos/view.php?v=9f061057
77. o311
what do you guys think of the discussion about the wave off of Africa?
JP. Do you have Gabby becoming a Hurricane and moving over Florida?..LOL
edit: changed Southern to Northern
MLC,
What was that you were saying about an extension of the trof the from the Northern Bahamas south.
Also a wave S of 19N along the same general N/S line.
80. JLPR
yeah like someone said before once it gets a more compact and definitive circulation then it should be renamed as tropical
C2News - checked out your blog, good update.
You might want to check the water vapor. It has very dry air to Gabby's west and the convection is waning. It also still has some shear and if that's the case it may never wrap totally around--only time will tell though.
Tampa, what kind of damage can a storm like this do? Minimal??
Gee, Dr M didn't mention the big gorilla marching off Africa... Ah well, probably wiaitng to give it a full day over open water to see what it looks like tomorrow. Looks pretty menacing tonight but needs to tighten up some LLC.
85. JLPR
yeah the Afican wave sure is looking healthy with the new burst of convection umm
could possibly develop if the convection continues
hi jp what you think about the blob at 72 west by the bahmas can it develope it looks good for now
Africa wave... conditions look good EXCEPT... sheer. its 30-40. Looks better as it moves west in a few days
A storm like this. Main affects: beach erosion, heavy surf, heavy rain.
89. o311
a great web site is crownweather.com, it shows awesome maps, just click the tropical update section.
That African feature is actually fore casted to develop to a TD over the next few days.
good night



i think are new STS will go poof overe night and its starting to do that now


good night this sould have nevere been name a STS but oh well
hey weatherguy03, since when do u post at Midnight ? Did you watch the Cat 5 Felix Vid ?
"storm like this?" waaaay too early to tell... A lot of water and time between Gabby and the coast. Where are ya stormy? I've been in hurricanes in CT, MD, NC, and south FLA... all very different in every respect...
I agree Taz..it's waning with the dry air.
Hardly ever. Was out tonite and got home and saw this surprise!! I was about to turn the puter off for the night after looking at the Satellite view and stuff thinking we still didnt have anything, then I peaked at the Navy site and saw Gabrielle!! I was like, huh??..LOL Yes, I saw the video!
bl, the trough is lifting out, but that convection in the GOM I believe has been associated with it. Of course, that high pressure of the seCONUS is keeping it south of the central coast. May spin up, but likely a "rain" event for part of TX, maybe!

But, heck, I don't know. I agree with the Gabby call; but, I don't understand the two-center thing and cold vs. warm. Just don't get that. Apparently, I have more than a huge amount still to learn.

StormW's been saying "warm-core." Bob's been saying "sub-tropical" which as I understand means "cold core." So, I really just don't know. The two center thing, and calling it cold-core, sub-tropical---I simply just know zero about.
couple of things beofr i am off to bed

1. the convection is warming not waning. if shortwave ir you can see the overall structure is improving. we have seen this many time in tropical systems. as they pull them selves togetehr convection warms as it refires elswhere. its starting to flar to the north easta nd right over the center.

2. the convection particularly shortwave ir imagery shows the convection starting to actually wrap around the cenetr. the circulation over the last hr or so has looked m,uch more define and tropical. its reorginising not falling apart.

3. the ull is starting to race west. its influence over the system help generat the convection on the west side. this influence is now waning. as this is happeniong the forcing generating this convection is starting to come from the gabrielle and its starting to form banding features as it wrapps around now.

short wave image





just my observations. good night all
Posted By: fldoughboy at 9:08 PM PDT on September 07, 2007.

I agree Taz..it's waning with the dry air.


yes it sure is with all the dry air it will be poof by time i get up


night night
The only thing going for Gabby right now it the SST. That's it..it's fighting the dry air and the wind shear. Development will be very slow.
MLC this is how I answered you on my blog if you missed it:

I believe its Subtropical because of its elongated center and the highest winds being far removed from the center:

SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS
SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED...BUT IS STILL BROAD AND ELONGATED. THE
AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ABOUT 85 N MI NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1011 MB.

Nite all.
Lefty, do you think this will fizzle??? It has outlasted so much I can't discount it just yet. What do you think??/?
This is the first storm I seen to develop that was elongated. I didn't think it was possible, especially with 2 centers. The buoy recorded a 52 mph wind, and they upgraded it to a STS. lol
jp..
High pressure due to gradient isobars... 1010mB is alot diffeent in the face of those kinda pressures... not gonna bust out equations right now...
MLC, just looks a little sneaky at the base of the trof. 24N 77W
...and I just might do that..:P
They had to upgrade it because it was close to the coast. Sure I have seem better looking Extratropical systems, but it is what it is.
111. JLPR
ok noone can change the fact that it is named Grabrielle sodont make discussions about it
Re: cold core/warm core
ditto
Speaking of the GOM, what is going on there?
what is a ULL
Nicely done lefty, banding , re-org in progress and new llc forming around 74.5 x 29.5 ?
So, there were two llc's? One warm, one cold? I appreciate Bob's explanation; but, we've seen elongated llc's that have become warm-core tropical storms. The winds haven't been over the center because shear has been blowing the tops off over the llc; therefore, the strongest winds would be away from the center, wouldn't they? I still don't really understand.
ULL=Upper Level Low
I wasn't worried about it becoming a TS/STS. I am sure there will be discussions about it tomorrow.
Cheers jp... we may both agree that we both know exactly what we're not talking about...
U can't wait to see the next QS
Sub tropical storms can be worse than tropical storms for one while the tropicals storms winds are usually fairly tightly packed subtropical storms are more spread out from the center meaning the center isnt what you watch if one makes landfall.
thanks dru. so ULL is not the same as surface level low, right?
09 07 11:20 pm NE 17.5 21.4 7.2 9 6.0 - 30.04 - 79.5 83.3 72.1 - - -
09 07 10:50 pm ENE 9.7 11.7 7.5 9 6.5 - 30.04 +0.05 82.0 83.3 72.5 - - -
09 07 10:20 pm E 9.7 11.7 7.5 9 6.4 - 30.03 - 82.0 83.3 72.7 - - -
I don't see any spin in the GOM. Spin is what you look for in order to "watch" something right?
From tonight's Area Forecast Discussion out of Mobile

LONG TERM (MONDAY ON): SOME UNCERTAINTY THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS
IN THE EXTENDED...WITH VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ON A POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND HEADING NORTH OVER LA/MS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT GETTING PUSHED TO THE COAST. SOME GUIDANCE HAS THE
SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. OP GFS/CANADIAN ARE THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED OF THE
SOLUTIONS. AM TAKING A GENERAL "LETS GIVE THE MODELS A BIT MORE TIME
TO COALESCE" APPROACH AT THIS TIME.
Subtropical Storm Gabrielle
Wind: 45 MPH Location: 30.4N 72.2W Movement: WNW



Invest 99
Wind: 45 MPH Location: 30.1 71.7W Movement: WNW

ok im confused are these 2 seperate systems in wub ?


and what is the blob by the bahamas going to do
Here is one definition of an ULL: A cyclonic circulation existing in the upper air; specifically as seen on an upper-level constant-pressure chart. This term is often restricted to such cyclones associated with relatively little cyclonic circulation in the lower atmosphere.
truecajun, I look for low's, then, I watch for spin...but, there are a lot of factors that make up a storm...
129. JLPR
oh no look an unamed TS in the atlantic lol
c
well not quite but that wave sures looks good once it crosses 30w it should be an invest
umm a cape verde system?
rxcyclone..thanks
look for a hurricane by 11p.m. sat. nite
thanks for that definition. I know many of the factors that make up or hinder a storm. What I'm not good at is picking out the "could be a threat" blobs in the very beginning. The "birth" of storms. Of course, the ones that generate from CV are usually more obvious.
someone has mail.. Does Gabrielle have a surface circulation ?
Am I uniformaly digressing when I say what the 'F' is Surferdude talkin about?!?!?!?!!? I'll throw down sum numbers....
Sorry MLC, maybe not so much the elongated part, but the broad circulation center and the strongest winds that a far removed from the center. I think that last part is the big one. If the circulation tightens up more and the T-storms consolidate closer to the center then it can become strictly warm core. Maybe this explains it better. I hope. maybe??..LOL Ok, really off now..LOL
Look at all the dry air.

Link

tbf

Station 41010 - CANAVERAL EAST 120NM East of Cape Canaveral , closest station ...u can see the wave size, pressure and wind speed...etc...
The GOM is a diurnal effect I believe..it is waning.
Things im noticting with subtropical storm is that if you look to the south sides seems it is expanding a little bit it is waning but if you look closely you can see little bubble of thunderstorms so yeah baiscly the first big batch of ts.
yes it seems she is trying to turn tropical but if anyone watched gustav and the perfect storm it took alot of time so I doubt it will reach hurricane status and if it does a weak cat 1 at best.

on that other wave wow look very good seems like it will be a td soon havent seen a td form that far back in a while
140. JLPR
The strong topical wave could be a moster with all the low shear, less dry air and only weak sal
WOW... three areas we're watching tonight... We are definately in September...

1. Gabrielle
2. Area in the Gulf - some models develope a LOW and moe it over LA/MS
3. Cape Verde wave looking like a TD tonight...
fallin asleep. good night everyone. I will leave you with this.....GEAUUUUUUUUX TIGERS!!!! Tomorrow is going to be so much fun in Tiger Stadium!! I'm so excited!!!
Thanks, Bob! That does indeed better explain it! Thanks, TONS!
Regarding STS Gabby: If I understand the nomenclature, when comparing 2007 to prior hurricane seasons, it's only fair to recognize that two of the named storms this year would not have even been counted 6 years ago.
145. JLPR
oh and the next name would be humberto correct?
Louisiana, where do you suspect that Cape Verde might go??
Night truecajun...enjoy the game:)
louisianaweatherguy...things are getting a bit scarey...
truecajun: Here's another one.
An upper level low. A counterclockwise spin pretty far up in the atmosphere. Occasionaly this circulation can spin all the way down to the surface and form a storm.
But more often, if you can imagine this ULL close by something spinning at the surface (also CClockWise) that has managed to grow upward into the atmosphere (so it can catch some wind) it could affect which way this surface something may move.
In your imagination, put a ULL to the northwest of the surface spin. That could help steer/suck the surface thing to the north. Now move your ULL somewhere else. Try to imagine which way it could steer your surface storm.
bl would welcome edits/additions/corrections by one and all.
I'm goin a TS landfall... ya wit me?
150. JLPR
it should go north and be a fish storm according to the models
MLC,

I don't know much about this stuff but the NHC has a glossary. Here's their definition of Subtropical Cyclone.

Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.

The most common type is an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

A second type of subtropical cyclone is a mesoscale low originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 30 miles. The entire circulation may initially have a diameter of less than 100 miles. These generally short-lived systems may be either cold core or warm core.

Link
Dallas there is a reason they started naming subtropical storms the perfect storm is a pure example of this and also the noreasters are very similar to subtropical storms and ask anyone in the ne they are usually far worse than ts. scientist also say that they could of confused subtropical storm for hurricane before the invention of sat.
Truecajun... sorry 'bout ya luk
thanks boobless. so the surface low usually travels in the direction of the ULL to try and "fill in" the low?
Thanks, LCharmer, that also defines it clearly and is like Bob stated. I figured this storm would develop, but I didn't understand it that way. Now, it's much clearer, thanks!


It's been a doozie to watch and learn from...most interesting one this season!
I think the one in the GOM will develop...hope I am wrong...
Would anyone like to predict what Gabrielle will do, as far as track and intensity????
Hello !! Does Gabrielle have a surface circulation ?
...btw, bl, nice ull explanation, too! WTG!
I continue to say, as I have for days that this storm will never be a direct impact to the US mainland as a significant tropical storm or higher.
I think Gabrielle will get a bit stronger, then she will hit land and fizzle out...
Posted By: ajcamsmom at 4:50 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.

I think the one in the GOM will develop...hope I am wrong...


I, for one, don't think so. If nothing else, by early next week, a high pressure system is supposed to be pushed into the Gulf.
truecajun:
At least from a "which way is it going thing" it adds some upper level push or pull. Just depends on where it's at in relation to your surface storm that's getting tall.
There's a few other things ULL's can do in disrupting/enhancing the outflow at the top of our surface storm. If that process fails, the storm can't breath out anymore and can be the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning. Ok were at the limit of my knowledge. lol
I have not heard a high pressure system is supposed to be pushed in the Gulf...I am hearing just the opposite...I hear that the present high that has been protecting the GOM if going poof
got some good role models in here mlc, thanks
Night all...thanks for sharing your opinions, they really make me think...
168. JLPR
well im signing off
i want to see how this wave looks tomorrow
h
well goodnight yall
DallasGumby, in 2007 for the first time in recorded history we had back to back landfalling Cat 5s. The first part of the 2007 season was unusually active and intense, even if we indulge your quibble about nomenclature around the current system..
Posted By: ajcamsmom at 4:55 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.

I have not heard a high pressure system is supposed to be pushed in the Gulf...I am hearing just the opposite...I hear that the present high that has been protecting the GOM if going poof


According to the mets here in Dallas, we have a strong front pushing down from Canada by Monday, which is strong enought to push the high pressure system currently driving our weather down into the Gulf. Just an hour ago, I saw a depiction of it on our local news.
Why does Gabby look like a sheared system right now?

Looks like GulfScotsman was right on with the 2 centers. I hope appologies were givin, many well knowns were contesting that pretty hard.
watch the capeverde wave. a major hitting the U.S. is more likely than at any other time in the season. we are basically at the peak of the season right here right now
OK, now I got a question:
Anybody ever used the RUC (Rapid Update Cycle) model for small, near-shore storms?
Not unless that monster ULL moves out of the C-Atl wedder. Recurve for sure with that hanging around, as most of the reliable models indicate.
could 75 west try to form its looking better and better thanks
CW, want to say thanks again for your wisdom a couple of evenings ago! I posted it in my blog and referenced it for that day, too! Appreciate it!
Posted By: neigegarcon at 5:01 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.

DallasGumby, in 2007 for the first time in recorded history we had back to back landfalling Cat 5s. The first part of the 2007 season was unusually active and intense, even if we indulge your quibble about nomenclature around the current system..


The current system and Andrea.

And, the reality is, Dean and Felix may never have been classified at Cat 5s twenty years ago. Or, put another way, there have been many previous years in which storms as significant as Dean and Felix were never classified as Cat 5s. The Great Galveston Hurrican is my favorite example -- it goes in the books as a Cat 4, but no one can honestly claim is was not as severe a storm as Dean or Felix. 1957's Audrey is another example -- landfall as a Cat 4, last measured before landfall a day earlier when it was a Cat 1 -- who's to say it never reached Cat 5 status. Pick any decade pre-1970s and you can find several storms that may have reached Cat 5 but were never measured as such.

Felix in the 1950s would never have been measured as a Cat 5.
...post 70's storms on steroids? whack, hit that 'un out the park! lol
NP MLC, that was a wonderful thing you did.
Well, thanks, CW, I'm going to try and do a more thorough update over the weekend. Death toll now up over 100, still many missing! Calamity down there still.
quibble away pal - history has already been made in 2007, and we're not even at the "peak" of the season..
I'm thinking we may have another T.D. or Storm within the next 48 hours evolve from one of the waves coming off the African coast.
I really think that the center of Gab will relocate farther to the south....
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 5:19 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.

The lack of technology back then, shouldnt take away from the true strength of the storms today


Who's saying anything about taking away from the true strenght of the storms today? Not me. My only point is, when comparing today to 3 decades ago, or 5 decades ago, or 7 decades ago,you must consider the quantum leap in storm measurement we've seen in the last couple decades. Today, we're measuring these storms before they even form.
Jp, you were right, we got this thing; but, I sure didn't expect it really before late tomorrow, or maybe Sunday! Did you see this tonight?
the wave is supossed to go all the way to the gulf, 50s tuesday, or so they say...
jp

was it you that called 99 or 236?
From the NHC

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF CENTER REFORMATION
DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE SUCH REFORMATION
WOULD NOT CHANGE THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN...IT COULD HAVE AN
AFFECT ON IF AND WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS



Very well could relocate.
i thought i told both you guys i would remind everyone for you, it aint over till its over...
jp

think cv wave is a fish storm?
Cane ? Is there a surface circulation ? (coc) ?
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...30.5 N...72.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
good night all...
Gabrielle synopsis starting from 9/2 @330am

My blog
hey fish here i come to screw with you. says 99 as it will not hit land.
I think Jp called this one, and hung with it, too! Good call, Jp. This thing might still get serious. It didn't bother me that they called it, thought it was the right thing to do for safety sakes, in case it happens to get stronger.
Sully, you must have a barb in your blog link, won't come up, wanted to check it out!

---have a good sleep, SETXHchaser.
what? yea it is a tropical depression or sub tropic but still will not hit land. state your case and prove me wrong please because i am still learning and am not basing my prediction on models but more a feeling.
StormBil, that area at 75 west has a little vorticity, but I think it's just some convection blowing up. However, it's been part of the trough, and I guess it's possible a low could come up out of it. Let's keep an eye on it. On the area in the GOM. On the CV wave...and maybe even down in the Caribbean....lots of season left to watch, and we could get busy quickly. lol
I know that I don't live on the coast, so this question might be irrelevent to those on this blog, but does the upstate of SC have any chance of getting any rain out of Gabby.

Thanks for your response

Monster
gabby i mean
no rain as blind melon sung about.
MLC,

I think you've got it. That's the same direction I was going with the area near 75W. Just some upper level divergence combined with a mid level vort max but certainly not a surface circulation in any way.

On your other point, I keep doubting my predictions for this year of 16, 9, and 5 but then again we're only half way through the season with the busy half left. So maybe my concerns are unfounded thus far.

UL divergence and a vort max don't sound too bad.
what? yea it is a tropical depression or sub tropic but still will not hit land. state your case and prove me wrong please because i am still learning and am not basing my prediction on models but more a feeling.

I'll state my case if you wish. First off, I think it's great you aren't going by models for your predictions. They aren't gospel like some people (not everyone) make them out to be.

Secondly, what is stopping Gabrielle from making landfall? There isn't really anything there that could recurve Gabrielle out to sea, unless we are talking about a storm like Andrea that dissipates before it hits land. That is unlikely too, despite all the unfavorable conditions. Gabrielle will most probably, IMHO, transition into a fully tropical system after it gains a dominant circulation center. I don't think it will get stronger than 70-75 mph, though. But either way, IMO, it's crazy to say this thing won't make landfall. Nothing is really stopping it.
Sully, that's an E X C E L L E N T blog. GR8 chronology and good insight as well. I'll visit more! lol. I tend to agree with you on the Carolinas, looking for somewhat of a stall near the OBX. I think the player in this game is gonna be the high to the west over the seCONUS.

RE: your predictions, I'd say you may very well be on target. Lots of season left. Three or four more storms to pop up kind of suddenly like we've had this evening, and yeah, I'm not doubting an above avg season at all. Think it's going to happen. I know with the back side of peak, we start seeing more troughs, etc...and I still think we're likely to see a least one, maybe two serious land-falling CONUS storms. Lots of time left. La nina appears to be later, and I follow what SW says about the MJO (lol). He sure seems to know, and if I read him right, those condititons are active now and down the road a ways.
watch the coast of africa!!!!
watch the coast of africa!!!!

No kidding. I was watching that CV wave for at least 36 hours, and now the NHC has latched onto it. Only a matter of time before it becomes 90L, IMHO.
Jp, what's your take on Gabby's landfall? And, plz share your thoughts on the disturbance down in the GOM! TIA
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/history/unnamed2006.jpg

this is the closest thing I could find to looking like our gabrielle is subtropical storm from 2005.


also hurricane karen when it was an invest later became subtropical than hurricane anyone see a resemblance between these two storms?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b7/Pre_Karen_ET_storm.jpg

Oh, well, guess I missed him. Would've like to heard his thoughts on landfall. Have a good sleep, Jp...and GOOD LUCK with the tests next week!
thanks mlc
MLC,

Thank you for the wonderful comments!

I really try to focus on the Northeast, but since I considered 99L a threat I decided to dedicate a blog to it's cause. I'm really into the tropics, have been for some 15 or so years. Met Jim Cantore once during hurricane Dennis in 1999 and picked up some good insight from him.


I'm becoming a bit more concerned about Gabrielle moving in tandem with the ULL just to it's southwest. This ULL could be what steers Gabrielle for the next 24 hours until it weakens some. If this turns out to be the case we could be looking at a landfall further south, especially since the trough moving off the coast is about 12-18 hours slower than it was looking to come off the coast about 3 days ago and is oriented more east-west as opposed to north-south. something to keep an eye on for sure.
Would be a huge relocate but, maybe no landfall
Thanks, Jp...definitely watching the GOM!

Appreciate your help and answers! Thanks, TONS! Have a good sleep! And, a GR8 weekend!
not much to landfall with right now.
Unfishing believable ! No storm ! No Rain ! No Circulation ! No shutters needed ! Go to bed ! I'll see more action from the tiny rain clouds & sea breeze ! IF, IF, IF, I'm, lucky ! jhc
KoritheMAN, ALL good points! uuuuuggg, that CV wave, another long track!

---From Jp's blog updated a few minutes ago:
A new area has emerged in the Gulf of Mexico. Both the GFS and NAM forecast development on Monday. Wind shear and SSTs are favorable for development. It will take a few days to organize, but I believe we will see our 8th storm of the year from this system.
Initial Thoughts on the CV wave are a very short track up and out to sea. Have to see the evolution of things this weekend.
Looks like the NE center is trying to take over. Convection firing near the center.
CW, hey, that might just be the ticket! Hope so! That huge ULL'l play into it hopefully, and keep the Atl high at bay for a re-curve!
TCW !!! [ Cane ? Is there a surface circulation ? (coc) ] ?.... (Gabrielle)

jp says 2 named storms by next Friday..roflmao

late..

wierd
lol, Jp! 8, or 9, shoot! Doesn't matter, I'll still be watching the GOM! But, that does make me feel better in that it may not be quite as urgent! THANKS!
I mispelled. I meant i was wired.
lol, Jp...I HEAR YA! Don't let 'em get next to you. Have a good sleep!
Got that crow on the smoker for you tonight, Jp! LOL...GO TO BED, GET REST, that serving tray'll likely be very busy!
that would be me. wierd n' wired:
JP-congrats
MLC,

How long have you been into the weather?
Wow, Sully! That's a great question!

--uuuumm, I suppose since I was knee high to a tadpole. My father was, still is. He'll call me when there's a new cloud in the sky! You can look to the sky, see a cloud and set a clock by his call. When I miss the call, I call him, because I wonder what's up with him! lol

When I was a young boy (many years ago), when a bad t'storm was on the way, Dad would load us up and we'd drive 4 or 5 miles to my great uncle's who had a storm pit out in an open field. It was concrete/lumber down in the ground. It was always DARK, but we had the coal oil lamps...spooky looking.

The doors were like you'd expect, kind of parallel to the ground. And the older folks would stand near the top with the doors open looking out over the sky.

I suppose after that, I remember what Camille did to the MS coast. Still young, but remember it all very well. Since then, I've always been conscious of the hurricane season. As a teen, I'd use push pins to post a track when I could get coordinate reports.

Today, with all the technology at our fingertips, it's all really fascinating, interesting, educational and fun, too!

Before Katrina came I remember telling everyone how awful it was going to be, but honestly I never expected it to be as bad as it was. I had a big house and at one time I had 13 refugees (of course I knew them all) that stayed at my house for over a week to avoid the storm.

They're interesting to say the least, but also lethal. I'm interested in awareness, preparedness and safety...and hopefully, soon, I will be able to play a bigger part in that role.

Thanks for asking! And you?
MLC,

Do you know what time we come out of the sat blackout? Isn't it soon? Interested to see waht Gab is up too and a few other areas of interest before heading off to bed.
Sstripes, no, sorry, not exactly; but shortly I think. You can just about count on a few to be up to check. SJ is usually one when a storm nears like that. If you check the time from the last blog, you can tell from last night! Try some IR or WV loops.
Ya...I was thinking the first image yesterday was from about 2:45 am est so we should get be getting it within the next 15 minutes or so.
Wow MLC, that's quite an awesome journey through your weather experience!

What do you remember about Camille and where are you from? I assume from somewhere near LA/MS border region...

As for myself it's pretty much the same age that I got into the weather. Some of my earliest memories are in fact of the weather.

When I was almost 2 I remember a massive snowstorm that we had got when I lived in NYC (1983 blizzard). I remember cars being covered by the snow as I watched from my 3rd story apt window. I also remember on one occasion a severe thunderstorm warning was issued for our area and my mother telling me that nothing was going to come of it (crystal clear blue skies at the time) about 30 minutes later we caught hell and I remember being really worried because my father was on his way home from work. I also remember some of hurricane Gloria when I was still only 4.

From there it was kind of fleeting because we had no cable so it wasn't unitl our family moved upstate when in dec of '87 when I was 6. Then we had gotten cable (weather channel) and I've been hooked since.

The weather was kind of disappointing back then because I loved snow and 75% of the time the weather channel totally blew snowstorm forecasts.

Then of course came Hurricane Andrew. I remember staying up that entire night watching the Weather Channel as the storm approached Florida, captivated. Then came both blizzards that ensuing winter (december '92 storm, storm of the century in '93).

By 1994 I had gottten a computer and I've been watching computer models and all sorts of weather on the internet since. Back then the big weather sites were mainly the NWS and several college weather sites. The University of Michigan site had a very informative page and is how I found Wunderground back in 1995.


In 1999 I met Jim Cantore during hurricane Dennis. Hung out with him for a few days as Dennis approached, got interviewed on live TV....Really great experience there.

Next year I plan on going to school for meteorology. I would have gone much sooner, but some family problems kept me from going, then when I met my g/f we decided that she should go to school 1st and get her stuff together. She just graduated this spring, so now I get to go.

Satellite black out is from 0345 UTC - 0615/0645 UTC

The NASA site already has the new image up most likely, but I dont have that link on the laptop. The NWS should have the new image up within the next 10-15 minutes.
HAHA. It just updated.

Link
Good Morning

When did grabriel form?
9/7 11pm
thanks.....
Wow, Sully, good story, too! You're famous!

I was (seventy-four) when Camille hit and remember how bad it was. I still live in MS and very near where I grew up, too-between Hattiesburg and Meridian. I had family on the coast, and we went there after landfall as soon as we could to check on them and help. It was awful, and Katrina was even worse. IMO, Camille was a baby comparatively.

I can't imagine a winter blizzard...get shivers reading about it. lol

I suppose the shock and awe of it while we were young (and likely with many) and it just sticks with us. My children, especially my oldest, is just as concerned. They don't like lightening.

Well, it surely sounds, too, like you've got your head together, mature...looking ahead with responsible thoughts and ways. That's a good thing! Always, think of others and remember to enjoy life! It's fleeting. I wonder where the last 20 years have gone, but they've been good ones! Some downs with the ups, but good ones.

Best wishes to you. Work with no passion is just a job! Do what you like to do and enjoy!
MLC,

Let me tell you, the 1993 superstorm was the most amazing storm I had seen. Hurricane Dennis is a close 2nd but what occured during the 1993 superstorm will stick with me forever. Not until we get a 1938 hurricane or a Carol up here will I be as impressed.

One of the scariest moments of my life had occured during that storm...

It was right around the time Terminator 2 how come out on cable. (segway)
hamn moonlightcowboy!!...drinking up the fame huh?! Remember, all glory is fleeting.
Posted By: franck at 7:19 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.
hamn moonlightcowboy!!...drinking up the fame huh?! Remember, all glory is fleeting.


I'm not sure what you mean, franck. Drinking? Yes, milk and Lil' Debbie's. lol. Glory belongs to God. What about you, frank, how long have you been into the weather?
Sub TS looks bad will be dead by morn what a waste of a name on this thing! looks terrible right now!It's weakening I'm telling you.
Ok gents, the world is still here per satellite.
I shall rejoin it later after it is already in progress.
456, mlc, sullivanwx all else, G'morn
She is and will always be 99l to me. I love her so. lol

If you remember the superstorm it was Friday-Sunday. I remember the HUGE hype surrounding the storm and I was physced. Anyway, my mother had picked me up from school that Friday afternoon. We had to go food shopping cause the storm was coming to get milk, eggs, bread, and butter (jk), but you know, supplies.

Right before we had gotten to the grocery store we heard the air sirens going off (They go off all the time (12 o'clock siren, and other various times. Now I think that they just liked to have fun with the thing.)) So these air sirens are going off and I'm thinking about Terminator 2 how they were going off before they dropped that a-bomb on L.A. Then, out of nowhere, the Emergency Broadcast System comes on the air. It started with the long *BOOOOOOOP* sound and when the man with the creepy voice came on the radio he said "THIS IS NOT A TEST. THIS IS A REAL EMERGENCY...."

So now I'm like holy ****, we're getting bombed! As it turns out it was a blizzard warning calling for 2-4 feet of snow.

Boy, was I relieved...
Sub TS looks bad will be dead by morn what a waste of a name on this thing! looks terrible right now!It's weakening I'm telling you.

No, you just WANT it to weaken. <_<

It's actually getting better organized compared to what it was. I HIGHLY doubt the NHC is going to issue the "final advisory" this morning.

Hey mlc, I finally figured out your age! MUAHAHAHA!

Nah, just kidding, it really doesn't matter.
lol, Sully, I'll bet! Did ya'll have a snowball fight, build a snowman?

lol, Kori.....sssshhhh!
Based on the "center" coordinates the convection on the latest Sat image actually is pretty near the center now so it may be on it's way to upulling itself together. Anybody see the same thing? On the pre-blackout image you could actually make out the low level COC but now it is covered up by convection. You can still see a few of the "arms" from the COC.
Blank

Present NHC track is a TS throughout until it becomes a fish.
Our Next Player

Image at 0230 UTC 8-SEP

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080306
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI SEP 7 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES OF
NEWLY-DEVELOPED SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE LOCATED ABOUT 385 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVED WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN


this is too much..... another felix and dean again?
MLC,

Nothing of the sort. The snow was too dry.

It blew into 12' drifts that completely covered the 1st story of my house. I climbed to the top of one of these drifts and was able to look inside the 2nd flood window. School was canceled Monday-Wednesday and Thursday they opened late. Apparently a 20' drift covered the main entrance and along the length of that side of the school and it took them 4 days to remove the snow with bulldozers. They called in the National Guard and everything.


During the storm there was about 7 seperate occasions of lightning and thunder. From 9am-6pm on that Saturday we had 28", then another 6-8" during the rest of that night.

Pretty much we spent the next 3 days after the storm just shoveling snow. We tried to take a walk the next morning down the main road with all the strip malls on it and such. Impossible. The snow was up to our waist and we were advoiding the drifts. The wind just constantly blew around 30mph or so and it was only like 10-15 degrees out.

We had a similar storm in 1996, with the snow, but certinaly not the wind and the overall ferocity.
Here is the latest image and it appears to me the COC is just tucked under that convection near the 30 line.

G1
this is very close to being a tropical cyclone
Well, I live in Charleston and feel a lot better after the 2:00 update. Does anyone have a link for getting distance between two points of lat/long.?
MIT5000,

Usually by this time of year the chances for getting a storm that stays on a mostly due west heading (and into the Carribean) becomes less likely. Especially the further east a cyclone forms.
Interested to see if it can make the full transition to tropical storm over the next few days or so.
The center is around 30.7N, 73.2W in the 645UTC image.
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 SEP 2007 Time : 064500 UTC
Lat : 30:43:41 N Lon : 72:49:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt


---Sully, that's some storm! Whew, glad not to be in those!
Posted By: sullivanweather at 7:47 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.

MIT5000,

Usually by this time of year the chances for getting a storm that stays on a mostly due west heading (and into the Carribean) becomes less likely. Especially the further east a cyclone forms.


i dont think you realised yet but this season has been full of suprises

andrea gabrielle dean and felix all have been well lets just say suprising
Silverstripes,

It should. It already looks as if the cyclone is 'breaking away' from the upper low to the southwest.

The biggest obstacle this storm has now is mixing out the dry air that surrounds it. I say that because a system will become 'tropical' despite shear, but too much dry air could allow this system to retain sub-tropical characteristics.
MIT5000,

Maybe to some, but not to me.

If you check my blog I hinted at the development of 99L back on September 2nd @330 in the morning. That's like what? 6 days now?

6 days for a system to develop certainly is not a surprise to me.

Dean? Dean was one of the most well forecasted hurricanes I could ever remember. There was model consensus that Dean would develop 5 days prior to the wave that became Dean even came off the African coast. On the track there was 80% model agreement throughout and the NHC did 'well' on the intensity aspect.

Felix was surprising. Andrea wasn't.

From the NHC:

THERE ARE CURRENTLY MANY NEGATIVE FACTORS INVOLVED IN THE FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT OF GABRIELLE. THE STORM HAS COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH
AT LOW LEVELS...VERY DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...IS EXPERIENCING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND IS
PASSING OVER WATERS THAT HAVE COOLED A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE AS
GABRIELLE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND THIS COULD OCCUR OVER THE DEEP
WARM WATER OF THE GULF STREAM. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 63 KT...THE GFDL 68 KT...AND THE HWRF 37 KT. GIVEN
ALL THE NEGATIVES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT NEAR
LANDFALL. AFTER RECURVATURE...GABRIELLE SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF CENTER REFORMATION
DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE SUCH REFORMATION
WOULD NOT CHANGE THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN...IT COULD HAVE AN
AFFECT ON IF AND WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
Enjoyed it, Sully, and all! Catch up with you all later today!

MLCgoodnight4.gif

"Awareness, preparedness and safety" is everything!

Have a good one!

MLC<-----------------out for some strong shut-eye!
MLC, have a good one!

It was nice talking to you!
Area of the african coast is likely to get tagged by NRL later today.We'll organized.Adrian
Hurricane23,

Agreed. 90L is on it's way for sure.
Could not help myself, had to get back up out of bed to catch the first few images of Gabby after the eclipse.

It seems that Gabby has consolidated its convection and shows signs of a strengthening low/mid level circulation near the south side of the main mass of convection. The CONUS trough continues to lift out above the Ohio Valley, and I see no reason why Gabby will not continue to consolidate and move generally WNW parallel to the isobars into the SC or southern NC coast. As is often typical with hybrid systems, Gabby's winds will be enhanced by a strong pressure gradient with the high to its north all along the SE coast. Although the most severe weather should occur along and north of the final point of landfall, effects will be felt along the entire SE coast from Florida northwards, with heavy surf and numerous low-topped convergence showers coming ashore ouside of the main area of convection along the FL and GA coasts overnight. Please check the NHC full update at 5 AM EDT for further information.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
how long till advisory number 2?
blob i belive we have two tropical waves now posibly 3 with that horrible looking one off the afrcan coast
Posted By: mit5000 at 8:32 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.
"how long till advisory number 2?"

Wow, only 25 more minutes or so if they are on time...

Heh, I guess they were early...even the discussion is out now.
As for the African waves, long-range GFS is showing a couple of consecutive fish storms. although any weakening of the current CATL low could cause the perilous west bends should the storms develop. Will be something to keep an eye on after Gabby comes ashore.
New advisory out.

No big changes...
NHC on Gabby intensity forecast:


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 08, 2007

the satellite presentation of Gabrielle has improved early this morning. A curved convective band is now located closer to the center of circulation over the northern and western quadrants... which could be an indication that Gabrielle is gradually acquiring tropical characteristics. Dvorak intensity classifications are T 2.5/35 kt from SAB and St 2.5/35-40 kt from TAFB. Based on this... Gabrielle will remain a subtropical 40 kt storm for this advisory. While the cyclone is currently over warm waters...the upper level environment is not favorable for significant strengthening. Therefore...only slight strengthening is indicated as Gabrielle approaches the coast. This is consistent with a blend of the SHIPS...GFDL...and hwrf intensity guidance.
[...]
$$
forecaster Mainelli/Avila
Minimal TS at best here as the upper level environment is not the best.
andrea gabrielle dean and felix all have been well lets just say suprising

Dean was not surprising. Not in the least. It's natural for CV storms to become major hurricanes.

Minimal TS at best here as the upper level environment is not the best.

The environment was not the best for 94L either. All of us on here, including myself, were considering it dead. It became a Category 5. And it formed in dry air, no less... I wouldn't consider Gabby to undergo rapid intensification or anything, but it seems likely that it will get to at least 60 mph.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 080840
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GABRIELLE HAS IMPROVED EARLY THIS
MORNING. A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND IS NOW LOCATED CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS...
WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT GABRIELLE IS GRADUALLY ACQUIRING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. DVORAK INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS ARE
T 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB AND ST 2.5/35-40 KT FROM TAFB. BASED ON THIS...
GABRIELLE WILL REMAIN A SUBTROPICAL 40 KT STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.
WHILE THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM WATERS...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS GABRIELLE
APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. GABRIELLE IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES WESTWARD AND
WEAKENS...GABRIELLE WILL BE STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN AN
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BY DAYS 4 AND 5 GABRIELLE
SHOULD BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED
STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR A
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 30.9N 73.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 31.8N 74.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 33.1N 76.2W 50 KT...TROPICAL
36HR VT 09/1800Z 34.5N 76.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 36.0N 75.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 38.5N 71.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 41.0N 62.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0600Z 45.0N 50.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA


THIS IS SAYING IT COULD BECOME A HURRICNAE (IF INTENSITY ERRORS ARE WHAT THEY WHERE WITH FLOSSIE!)
Posted By: KoritheMan at 9:00 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.

"...I wouldn't consider Gabby to undergo rapid intensification or anything, but it seems likely that it will get to at least 60 mph."

KoritheMan - I am a little more bullish on strengthening as well right now, based on how quickly the convection consolidated during the eclipse, signs of a possible LLC forming, and the weakening of the ULL to the south.

I'm kind of doubtful about the fast recurvature track as well...we will see.
295. KRL
If you haven't seen this vid, it's cool as heck!

Riding Inside Hurricane Felix At 2AM
Thanks for posting that KRL, I'll have to check back later though as I can barely keep my eyes open by squinting right now... always better to get to sleep before the sun rises :-)
noaa are very close to saying hi to ts gabby not jus sub ts gabby
Distance between two lat/long points:

http://jan.ucc.nau.edu/~cvm/latlongdist.html

Rbirds
Thanks - for others using this link don't forget to include compass direction. example
30.5N 72.5W
300. IKE
Long-term from Mobile,AL....

"Long term...(sunday through friday). Middle level trough moves west
over the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf late sun with drier air
still advecting southward over much of the southeast Continental U.S. And central Gulf
states...generally from the western side of Gabrielle. This dry air
advection will become cut off late sun into Monday as Bermuda high
builds west and remnant middle level trough over the north central Gulf
begins to reflect near the surface. Still limited detail in the GFS and
NAM guidance towards the possible development of a surface low centered
over the middle Gulf by Tuesday
...though rain chances look to increase on
Tuesday through much of the week as increased moisture from the Gulf
advects north as this system slowly tracks to the west-northwest. As mentioned
by the day shift yesterday it's still a little to early to really
tell what will happen with this system by middle week...though with
high pressure building west over central Florida and the eastern Gulf surface
winds will likely increase for much of the southern half of the County warning forecast area
late Tuesday through Thursday."
301. IKE
Long range radar out of Hatteras,NC.....

Link
Anyone who wants 15 minute pictures of the far east atlantic wave can use this Link. However, it is a very big picture and takes a while to load, but you can animate it at the top.
Good morning world. Well there actually is some surf this morning and there is little wind. Reminds me of Costa Rica surf everyday. CV wave invest yet? Take care.
304. IKE
Gabrielle is a peculiar looking system...makes sense to call it a SUB-tropical system. Looks like SC gets little, if any rain...eastern NC may get some and that's about it..then it becomes a fish system.
Thought that CV wave was headed out to sea? Right now moving due west.
306. IKE
Long range GFS(6Z), carries the CV wave to about the same spot STS Gabrielle is at...in 16 days.
looks like they may call this one tropical at the next advisory the T numbers are now calling it tropical

08/0645 UTC 30.6N 73.2W T2.5/2.5 GABRIELLE

***NOTE it has gone up to 3.0 since then just not on this page
308. IKE
Gabby appears to be making a bee-line to the outer banks.
309. IKE
That's 7 storms...only 11 to go to make my prediction of 18, which seems highly unlikely.
310. IKE
Long-term from Tampa,FL...

"Long term (monday night - friday)...period begins with high pressure
ridge axis across either central or South Florida. This axis will
drift to north central Florida late Tuesday and on Wednesday. Models
in fair agreement on these features. For Thursday and Friday however
they diverge...with European model (ecmwf) and dgex bringing a digging trough into
the Midwest...pushing the deep layer ridge south into the Bahamas.
The GFS keeps this ridge roughly over the area with a weaker trough
over the southeast. Will lean towards the GFS as believe Gabrielle
will leave a weaker trough behind across the southeast U.S.. The Fly
in the ointment will be if anything develops out of the convection
in the Gulf and then rides along this trough by the end of the
period."


Is it finally time for the GOM to have a system?
hey IKE how was the crow? lol
can some one post the BAM models plz
2 storms coming off the African coast...wow. Could be race across the Atlantic.
wow, the wpac had 98w invest last night and they got two more overnight
if that CV wave starts to organize a bit more we could see an invest
316. IKE
Medium-rare...tasty. You gotta give me credit...my RIP hung in there for awhile with 99L.

I notice Drak never showed up. Come on Drak...take the heat! LOL.
I noticed wind shear map shows shear of 5-10kts over gabrielle with an anticyclone to its east...and gabrielle doesnt look too impressive, although I do believe it will become tropical before landfall
318. IKE
Note...if you look at the long-range radar out of Hatteras, posted above/below, w/a link...I think you can pick out the COC of Gabrielle.
accuweather was right afterall, they said gabby would form on friday and it did lol
and accuweather is still forecasting it to become a cat 1 before landfall...
321. IKE
Posted By: extreme236 at 6:15 AM CDT on September 08, 2007.
accuweather was right afterall, they said gabby would form on friday and it did lol


They got that part right. They over-hyped it though.

Convection is dying off a little near the center...again.
I check the flash tracker on WU's site, and it shows that it is forecasted to be a 65mph TS, and funny thing is thats how strong tropical Storm Danas in the wpac is supposed to become as well
323. IKE
They just changed the floater 3 location on Gabby....Link
Currently TS Danas of the wpac is in the lead with 50mph winds, while close behind is STS Gabby with 45mph, who will win? Tune in later for the next race update!
Posted By: IKE at 11:15 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.
Note...if you look at the long-range radar out of Hatteras, posted above/below, w/a link...I think you can pick out the COC of Gabrielle.



no you can't. you just see the outr rainshield. the center is still 50-100 miles se of the radar echos out of hatteras
with that said. can not wait. should be leaving some time late tonight or tomm morning to be in va beach. may not leave till after the redskins game we will see what the storm is.


i might see winds up to 65 mph. should be a good show. wife is excited. i caught here watching the weather channel this morning ;-)
Stormjunkie,
remember we expect pictures of Gabrielle for Dr.M's blog.
well hopefully this storm wont cause any of you NC folks any trouble, maybe just same rain if your lucky, since I know some of you in NC need some rain
can some one plz post the bam models or a link cause im in the path
Lefty, I will see you at a First Steet Jeddie!
Bring a strong leash
Posted By: VaSurfer at 11:34 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.
Lefty, I will see you at a First Steet Jeddie!
Bring a strong leash


lol u know it
Posted By: hurricane10 at 11:33 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.
can some one plz post the bam models or a link cause im in the path


latest models

and official track.

I woke up this morning and it looks like someone at NHC read my Thursday prediction and used it for their track... Really kinda spooky if it plays out that way, but I'll try not to tear my rotator cuff from patting myself on the back. Bring rain Gabby!!!! More inland!!

Posted By: floodzonenc at 6:19 PM GMT on September 06, 2007.
Time for my uninformed prediction:

Becomes TS Gabby on Sat, hits around Morehead City, NC with 50 mph winds Sunday night and moves NE over the Pamlico Sound and then the Outer Banks around Nags Head on its way out the door.
i will def be taking pictures, movies and might even run a webcam for a bit.

we will see. i think most of the action will take place overnigght.
Neponset: and anyone interested.

1 Deg of Lat = 68.708 St. miles at the equator and 69.403 at the poles, because of the oblate shape of the world, or about 1 Nautical mile per Minute of Latitude.

1 degree of longitude = 69.171 * cosine of the appropriate Latitude. For diagonal courses use the average of the two Latitude points.

Example: 30 N 69 W 30 .5 N 70 W
Cosine of 30.25 =.8638 .8638* 69.171=59.75 1 deg W = 59.75 miles west
69 *.5 = 34.5 miles North (Just use 69 for Lat it is close enough)
The square root of 59.75 squared + 34.5 squared equals 68 .99 miles traveled.
34.5 / 59.75 = .577 Asine of .577 is 35.27 deg 270 +35 = 305
course is 305 deg.
If GFS is right, seems that the UK may be infor more flooding as the remnants head our way. We've got plenty of water here - happy to send y'all some in NC lol!
well I guess outerbanks should get 3-6inches of rain from gabby at this time anyway with its current track...also it seems gabby will make landfall late sunday or very early monday
339. IKE
Posted By: leftyy420 at 6:23 AM CDT on September 08, 2007.
Posted By: IKE at 11:15 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.
Note...if you look at the long-range radar out of Hatteras, posted above/below, w/a link...I think you can pick out the COC of Gabrielle.


no you can't. you just see the outr rainshield. the center is still 50-100 miles se of the radar echos out of hatteras


OK.
Water? We'll take it, fitzroy! We've got plenty of places to put it.

Hope these tracks shift west.
Hi Lefty,

so you finally got one coming your way again! Good luck, and take some good pictures!

Gams
This is a pretty disorganized system...just one huge rainband. I have a feeling this will be more of a rain event than a wind event.

ssd
Have all the models not come into agreement on one solid path yet and why not? Also, what direction is Gabby moving in right now and has the 2 centers consolidated yet to one?
new advisory in...no change in strength...they said that strengthening may occur when it gains more tropical characteristics
I dont think gabby has two centers anymore, I think thats why it become a cyclone, because well i believe the two merged into an elongated center
346. IKE
Virginia Beach forecast....

"Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Windy with lows in the mid 70s. East winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
[chancerain]
Monday
Partly sunny. A chance of showers. Windy and humid with highs in the upper 80s. North winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph...becoming south 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent."
Have all the models not come into agreement on one solid path yet and why not? Also, what direction is Gabby moving in right now and has the 2 centers consolidated yet to one?

All of the spaghetti models (except the NOGAPS) have come into a pretty tight agreement on taking in through the Outer Banks then out to sea. Gabby (as of advisory 2A) is moving towards the WNW. Gabby is sharing two centers which is why this is not yet tropical.
ok I understand and thanks
Hurricane/Tropical Storm Local Statement for Cape Hatteras, NC:

TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT
AMZ135-152-154-156-158-NCZ047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104-081700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
530 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2007

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

...NEW INFORMATION...
RAINFALL...STORM SURGE...AND RIP CURRENT INFORMATION HAS BEEN
UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
ONSLOW...CARTERET...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...PAMLICO...MAINLAND AND OUTER
BANKS DARE AND HYDE COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS IN EFFECT ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM OREGON INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO SOUND.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
COASTAL RESIDENTS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH ARE URGED TO TAKE ACTION
NOW TO PROTECT ANY PROPERTY THAT MAY BE THREATENED BY TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS. HAVE FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERY POWERED APPLIANCES ON HAND
IN CASE POWER IS INTERRUPTED. A BATTERY POWERED RADIO OR TV IS A
GOOD WAY TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND NEWS IF
ELECTRICITY IS LOST.

PREPARED OR CANNED FOOD IS HANDY IN THE EVENT OF SHORT TERM POWER
OUTAGES. IF YOU ARE ON MEDICATION...HAVE EXTRA PRESCRIPTIONS
AVAILABLE.

MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AS WINDS INCREASE STARTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WATER LEVELS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. THE PAMLICO AND NEUSE
RIVERS WILL HAVE STORM SURGES OF 4 FEET.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 45 TO
55 MPH.

...FLOODING IMPACTS...
TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...
INCREASING SWELL FROM SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ACROSS
AREA BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POWERFUL RIP CURRENTS AND/OR
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CAN OVERTAKE EVEN STRONG SWIMMERS. IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT YOU STAY OUT OF THE WATER TODAY.

...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS...
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON.

$$
so has all the models come into an agreement on one solid path yet or is there still a spread between them?

One solid path.
351. IKE
Posted By: TerraNova at 6:47 AM CDT on September 08, 2007.
This is a pretty disorganized system...just one huge rainband. I have a feeling this will be more of a rain event than a wind event.


I agree...

Latest visible...the center is exposed.
Posted By: leftovers at 10:47 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.

Thought that CV wave was headed out to sea? Right now moving due west.


Most models are predicting a right turn out to sea in 3-4 days.
353. IKE
The convection is all being blown off to the north and east of the system.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb.jpg

Circulation detected last few frames. Surrounded by dry air, this determined little system may be the next event. Center screen.
gabby does not have 2 centers. i donl;t even think it ever did respect given to dr.m .


the storm is in transition from subtropical to tropical. part if this is due to a ull to its west spinning down as it races west. this should allow shear to drop to 5 to 10 kts.

we already see evidencew of this in gabby's appearance. we have more of a curved band feature. but a weak frontal boundary is still present so its still not fully tropical. once that hapens gabby will have 12-24 hrs to maybe intensify. today should be very interesting.


the cenetr is also very clearly at the nhc posted location per short wave and visible satelite imagery
yes, looks like the center is exposed now, although it should continue to gain tropical characteristics and should be a TS later today
Excerpt from a hazerdous weather outlooks from the NYC forecast office:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE APPROACHES AND MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS COULD APPROACH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE BEYOND 20 NM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LONG ISLAND COAST LINE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
yes, the ULL is causing some problems
Good morning Storm!
361. IKE
You can see the center on the visible...near 31.2N, 73.8W.
Is this former 98L?

good morning Storm! so what is your take on Gabby?
so no chance of it moving further inland into NC yes I'm a wishcaster!
Posted By: eaglesrock at 11:58 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.

Is this former 94L?


It MIGHT be part of what was once 98L, 94L became felix lol
366. IKE
Posted By: StormW at 6:58 AM CDT on September 08, 2007.
Posted By: IKE at 11:55 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.

The convection is all being blown off to the north and east of the system.

Give it about 8 hours.

Good morning IKE, and all!


Good morning.
Sorry, comment modified, LOL
Posted By: IKE at 11:55 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.
The convection is all being blown off to the north and east of the system.


not really. the dry air seams to be impeding wrapp around more than anything. but evedince in wv and visible shows its starting to mix that out and fill in south and east
This is a hazardous weather outlook for Tampa from the NWS...

MONDAY: NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE
EASTERN GULF. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINS WHICH COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF URBAN
FLOODING. OTHER POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS OF 30 MPH OR
GREATER AND PERHAPS A BRIEF SMALL TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT.
Looks like gabby will slow down a bit and appears to be gaining more tropical characteristics

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS CENTERED NEAR 31.2N 73.8W OR
ABOUT 245 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AT
08/1200 UTC. GABRIELLE IS MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS
GABRIELLE ACQUIRES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING THE LATEST
WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION. GABRIELLE LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER
ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING AND APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON MORE
TROPICAL LIKE CHARACTERISTICS...WITH A CURVED BAND NOW OVER THE
N AND W QUADRANTS. THIS BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 31N-34N BETWEEN 70W-75W.
and on that CV wave, there is currently a mid lvl circulation with it, slow development possible
So extreme and StormW is there a small chance Gabby could move to the left and come inland further into NC?
Posted By: amazinwxman at 12:04 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

So extreme and StormW is there a small chance Gabby could move to the left and come inland further into NC?


There is a chance I guess...It all depends on where exactly it makes landfall at and how fast it recurves, although right now it mainly appears to be a coastal event for the most part
we may see an invest with that CV wave soon
That's an upper level low out there just east of the Antilles, not 98L. If fact it was the wave that slid north of 98L after it had been absorbed into the ITCZ that's interacting with that upper low causing the convect.
376. IKE
Posted By: leftyy420 at 7:01 AM CDT on September 08, 2007.
Posted By: IKE at 11:55 AM GMT on September 08, 2007.
The convection is all being blown off to the north and east of the system.

not really. the dry air seams to be impeding wrapp around more than anything. but evedince in wv and visible shows its starting to mix that out and fill in south and east


The high is to the east of her...shear is under 10 knots...the flow is blowing the clouds to the north of the COC.

CIMSS shear map...Link
Posted By: sullivanweather at 12:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

That's an upper level low out there just east of the Antilles, not 98L. If fact it was the wave that slid north of 98L after it had been absorbed into the ITCZ.


Well, there is a Tropical wave where all that convection is at as well
Extreme...I had left that out of my comment and noticed after I had posted and read it ....lol
i went back and modified it
Posted By: sullivanweather at 12:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

Extreme...I had left that out of my comment and noticed after I had posted and read it ....lol


lol
382. IKE
I agree with your analysis StormW....I agree with what lefty said about the moisture increasing from the south of the system. You can see it flowing into the storm hereLink

A strong TS is a good forecast.
a potent blob has emerged off the african coast...about 14N in latitude or so...SSTs seem to be marginally warm enough for development, so we should watch both of these waves for development in this area
Interesting feature around 22N this morning....

TWD 805:
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERALLY ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH
OF 22N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE E BASED ON ITS APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING...AND ALSO AN EARLIER
ASCAT PASS. IN ADDITION...WINDS AT BUOY 41040 HAVE REMAINED FROM
THE NE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SUGGESTING THE WAVE HAS YET
TO PASS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH THE
WAVE...WITH LIGHTNING DATA NOW DEPICTING SCATTERED TSTMS FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 51W-56W. OVERALL THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS
MINIMAL AND DISORGANIZED. A SEPARATE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N46W...WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY
AND DISSIPATING.

hi again........

what have i missed?
Three areas of interest

Grabrielle



African Wave





And this which has clear cyclonic rotation on satellite

and we cant take our eye off the GOM, a potential low may develop there and we need to watch for more pressure drops and convective increases...a lot to track this morning
That african wave has peristed for a good while now plus with enviromental conditions..it could be bigger than Gabrielle.
390. IKE
Pressures are lower in the eastern GOM.

Here's the buoy from 262 nm south of the "worlds most beautiful beaches"....Panama City, Fl....

"Updated: 6:49 AM CDT on September 08, 2007
Air Temperature: 85 F
Humidity: 67
Wind direction (W Dir): ENE (65 - 74 Degrees)
Wind Speed (W Spd): 7.8 kts (8.9 mph)
Dominant Wave Period (DWP): 5 sec
Dominant Wave Height (DWH): 2.95 ft
Dominant Wave Range (DWR): exactly 3.0 ft
Wind Wave Period (WWP): 4 sec
Wind Wave Height (WWH): 1.64 ft
Wind Wave Range (WWR): 0.82 - 2.46 ft
Wave Swell Period (WSP): 5 sec
Wave Swell Height (WSH): 1.64 ft
Wave Swell Range (WSR): 0.82 - 2.46 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (AP): 29.90 in"
Gabrielle has nice circulation...and I ate every bit of my crow

hmmm, the eastern GOM is where all the convection is as well...im thinking maybe a broad low might form at some point...and also with the CV wave, I do believe there is a broad low with this and there is a mid lvl circulation, so we might see something out of this
Gabby will be a nive rain event thats about it. Maybe a little gusty wind too. I hope nobody is freaking out and putting up plywood.
wow thats a good looking wave that will come off in a couple days
The latest QuickSCAT missed Gabrielle but caught the gulf disturbance. I don't see a circulation.

qscat
397. IKE
Posted By: Weather456 at 7:26 AM CDT on September 08, 2007.
Grabrielle has nice circulation...and I ate every bit of my crow


Tasty...wasn't it?

Desert anyone?
well, QS seems to show something at the sfc with that CV wave, although very elongated and broad at this time
399. IKE
TerryNova..from everything I've read and from what 03 was saying on here yesterday...give the GOM disturbance a couple of days...til Monday...maybe then it'll get going.
winds with the CV wave at this time appear to be 20-25kts
You can see the circulation at toward the top

image
good morning all. should the african wave develop, WIth the current conditions in the catl, will it be a conus hit or a fish storm?
Elongated indeed but still needs to be watched

404. IKE
The buoy out in the middle GOM south of NO,LA.....

"Updated: 6:50 AM CDT on September 08, 2007
Air Temperature: 83 F
Humidity: 67
Wind direction (W Dir): East (95 - 104 Degrees)
Wind Speed (W Spd): 9.7 kts (11.2 mph)
Dominant Wave Period (DWP): 6 sec
Dominant Wave Height (DWH): 1.64 ft
Dominant Wave Range (DWR): exactly 1.6 ft
Wave Swell Period (WSP): 6 sec
Wave Swell Height (WSH): 1.64 ft
Wave Swell Range (WSR): 0.82 - 2.46 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (AP): 29.93 in"
the center doesnt look as exposed on visible imagery...looks like its only partially exposed now
Take a look at the low over the central African continent!


EUMETSAT


Reminds me of Dean, it had the same signature.
gabby looks like its gradually organizing a bit...
409. PBG00
Gabrielle has nice circulation...and I ate every bit of my crow

There are alot of people you should be sharing it with.
Current surface/satellite analysis:

fontal
G35Wayne
Still stacked up in garage - lets hope it stay there for the rest of this season - Charleston
last week stormw was calling for no development outside of 50w, now we have an elongated circulation @ 30w. What a dif a week makes... SST in that region are still cool, if this thing can get to 50w hit the warmer sst it will be on nitrous. QUESTION-Given current NATL conditions, if afr wave comes together-CONUS or FISH?
The wave at 22N is forcasted to move in the general direction of florida in the coming days.Needs to be watched closely for signs of development.
Good morning everyone,

Well we have gabrielle, our local met on TV6 says that if this storm becomes tropical than subtropical which causes the COC to become tighter, we might have a different track, maybe more south, more west, so the track is still questionable especially if it becomes tropical...
I definatly dont think this wave will have to wait till 50W, at its present strength, slow development is possible and I do believe we could see some real development at about 40W or so
THANKS 23 & 236

236 they need to rename gabby to 236, you called it when everyone else killed it!!!
Posted By: SETXHchaser at 12:51 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

THANKS 23 & 236

236 they need to rename gabby to 236, you called it when everyone else killed it!!!


LOL
gotta go to work, will check back in a while...
extreme: what is the location of the wave you are looking at?
There were a few other folks on here who didnt call it dead, such as StormW and JP
good morning everyone. I see we have sub Gabriel. How is the blob in the gulf looking this morning?
Posted By: zoomiami at 12:52 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

extreme: what is the location of the wave you are looking at?


Its at about 30W south of 15N
for us to start experiencing conditions tomorrow morning, this storm will have to do a whole lot of transitioning in a little time
Hi SETXHchaser, I think JP was first in line for the naming lol!

Can anyone explain what I'm meant to see in IKE's GOM buoy post. I thought it would be showing low pressure, but surely 29.93" is 1013mb and standard SL pressure? I'm confused.

Thanks
Posted By: SETXHchaser at 12:35 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

good morning all. should the african wave develop, WIth the current conditions in the catl, will it be a conus hit or a fish storm?


GFS calls it a fish storm
JP and I told people that 99l wasnt dead as it still had a good circulation
hey ummm... whats going on with the wave at about 15N 55W ???
good morning everyone...

gabrielle could be nothing more then rain for the carolinas...does anyone think it could surprise us and intensify rapidly?

and are there two waves to be talked about? or only one? (off the coast of africa recently)
Old 98L might become an invest once again if convection can persist during the next few days.
OPC shows a dissipating low south of that blob of convection east of the Antilles. It might not be associated with it though. The high north of Gabby is predicted to move south. How sould this affect Gabby's motion?

opc
GFS also calls for something weak to develop off the coast of africa toward the end of the run, but it spins it up northward up to the CV islands and out into the far east atlantic
434. CJ5
Mornin all.

I am one who said 99l was dead, I believe we need to look deep into the rule book to determine how wrong I was....being a subtropical storm is not a TS...I think its a draw. lol
Posted By: CJ5 at 12:58 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

Mornin all.

I am one who said 99l was dead, I believe we need to look deep into the rule book to determine how wrong I was....being a subtropical storm is not a TS...I think its a draw. lol


lol, but it did develop though lol
African wave looks strong coming off the continent. Possible landfall and development are of course still unknowns. Something to watch though with the potential of many possible landfalls other than whereever any one of us might live.
Posted By: Neponset at 12:45 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.
G35Wayne
Still stacked up in garage - lets hope it stay there for the rest of this season - Charleston


I second that motion..another 3 wks and we can pretty much tune the weather out
Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:56 AM EST on September 08, 2007.
Old 98L might become an invest once again if convection can persist during the next few days.


where is invest 98 now?
Does anyone think that Gabby could equal an Ernesto? What part of NC/SC should we expect to see landfall??
Shear is very high in the Caribbean now and the troughs are starting to set up E of the islands. The CV season may be winding down early.

It looks like anything forming out in the Atl will probably go N of the islands through the weakness there unless a big high builds back in

I hope thje GFS is right about track...dont really need no more deans and felixes.
It looks like Gabbies low level circ is starting to tighten up a bit and the moisture envelope is beginning to fill in the south and west quads.
We should see some additional organization throughout the day.

actually, this is about time when the CV season ends, not really too early for an end
Morning all

I see the models are all pretty much agreeing on the OBX brush and then out to sea this morning. Also real nice to be able to see Gabby's center. Makes it a lot easier to tell what state she is in.

SW, got a question for you, and a I guess because I'm in Charleston, this will seem like a wish-cast question...Just trying to under stand what is happening with the steering that has been so confusing for the past few days....Anyway

That trough seemed to make good progress across Ten yesterday, but it seems to have slowed considerably today?
Posted By: FitzRoy at 12:53 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

Hi SETXHchaser, I think JP was first in line for the naming lol!

Can anyone explain what I'm meant to see in IKE's GOM buoy post. I thought it would be showing low pressure, but surely 29.93" is 1013mb and standard SL pressure? I'm confused.

Thanks


Buoy 42003 is showing 29.89 this morning. It had been dropping since yesterday morning.It has risen from 29.88 this morning. The gulf SST's are very high and those T-storms have been sitting there since wednesday. I think an area to keep an eye on since very close.
I thought it would be showing low pressure, but surely 29.93" is 1013mb and standard SL pressure?

1013 mb is often referred to as standard pressure, but it is really just the average pressure of the atmosphere around the world; for example, in the West Pacific area "standard pressure" might be only 1005 mb, so lows would be less than 1005 mb and highs above 1005 mb. On the other extreme, you can have a 1030 mb low if it was embedded in a 1035 mb high; in other words, lows and highs are just relative to each other; to find if there really is a low, you want to look at surrounding readings. Note also that in the Atlantic that pressure rises as you move north from the tropics due to the Bermuda High, so if Gabrielle was at 10N instead of 30N it would have a lower central pressure (for the same intensity and structure, although subtropical storms don't form in the tropics, as far as I know).
RECON is supposed to be in at 9 AM does anyone know where they are
actually, this is about time when the CV season ends, not really too early for an end

Really? I thought it just started... a few weeks sounds far too short... or do you mean in terms of CV storms not being able to easily make it across without recurving? And because of La Nina we are supposed to have an active late season (Gray is calling for about as much activity in October and November as he calls for in September). I don't know if that also means an extended CV season as well.
449. CJ5
16/53 should be watched. It is possible for further development and it could be our next invest. It was just about completely dead at 3:00 yesterday with nearly all convection dead. I was very suprized to see it back this am with clearly some cyclonic turning.
Good Morning.
Congratulations to all who called Gabby like they saw it, persevered and prevailed. Congratulations to the leader of the pack-even when the "pack" was not always loyal and true.
Quite the learning experience here-on many levels.
Thanks for the ride.
There are no signs of the CV season ending at all lol with 2 waves out in the region with potential for development.The wave at 22N should be watched closely for signs of tropical cyclone development.
Posted By: stormyjm at 1:00 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

Does anyone think that Gabby could equal an Ernesto? What part of NC/SC should we expect to see landfall??

Huh???
Administration: | Modify Comment
Big thanks to nolesjeff and MichaelSTL. Just when I thought I was starting to get to grips with the topic lol!
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 1:04 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

actually, this is about time when the CV season ends, not really too early for an end

Really? I thought it just started... a few weeks sounds far too short... or do you mean in terms of CV storms not being able to easily make it across without recurving?


Well, I thought I read somewhere that the CV season ended in mid september or so, not sure if it was true or not though...but likely at this point they would all recurve anyway
There may be waves out in the Atl but the conditions become increasingly hostile the further W they go.
Posted By: kmanislander at 1:08 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

There may be waves out in the Atl but the conditions become increasingly hostile the further W they go.

Upper level winds look decent for the wave at 22n.
Posted By: kmanislander at 1:08 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

There may be waves out in the Atl but the conditions become increasingly hostile the further W they go.


True, but they will most likely recurve at this time, so they wont really encounter those hostile conditions if they go north in time
how long till the next advsiory?
Posted By: mit5000 at 1:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

how long till the next advsiory?


about an hour and half until 10:45, which is usually when the next advisory is issued
Nothing but REDS all over the place across the basin.
sjm, right now it looks like a brush of the OBX and out to sea, but small moves make big differences in this type of approach. A 30 or 40 miles jog puts in Myb as opposed to the OBX.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:56 AM EST on September 08, 2007.
Old 98L might become an invest once again if convection can persist during the next few days.


where is invest 98 now?
Shear has been increasing just W of the CV islands.

H23

I have never placed much confidence in those maps
Posted By: nickmini at 1:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:56 AM EST on September 08, 2007.
Old 98L might become an invest once again if convection can persist during the next few days.

where is invest 98 now?

Its east of the islands located around 22N.Covection has been increaseing with the wave over the past 6-12hrs.
Posted By: kmanislander at 1:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

Shear has been increasing just W of the CV islands.


But at its present rate of movement, it wont be in those conditions very long, conditions east and NE of the antilles are favorable for development
the wave only has to move a couple degrees west and its back in 5-10kt shear
I like the shear map
Well we have lots of time to watch what happens out there for sure
Look at all the blues on your map all the way to the florida coast.Thats what is waiting for old 98L.
Tropical?

08/1145 UTC 31.1N 73.8W T2.5/2.5 GABRIELLE -- Atlantic Ocean
thanks hurricane23
I agree about the "blues" but they are also located where the high is weakening. Recurvature time is setting in
Posted By: TerraNova at 1:19 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

Tropical?

08/1145 UTC 31.1N 73.8W T2.5/2.5 GABRIELLE -- Atlantic Ocean


Thats the SAB dvorak rating...I read this morning that the TAFB dvorak rating was ST2.5, so it would interesting to see what the tafb one shows
Posted By: kmanislander at 1:17 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

I agree about the "blues" but they are also located where the high is weakening. Recurvature time is setting in


Which means this will be the time where we might see a few cat 3's form out in the sea and spin off...fun watching ahead
Well I have to get ready for a trip out of town tomorrow for two weeks so PLEASE keep everything away from the NW Caribbean while I am gone !

BBL
ADT calls gabrielle a TS (maybe it doesnt show subs so it just makes them TS's). it gives gabby a 3.0 dvorak rating (45kts)
Posted By: kmanislander at 1:17 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.

I agree about the "blues" but they are also located where the high is weakening. Recurvature time is setting in.

Recurvature time...Are you kidding me there is no such thing as that as it all depends on what features are place when a tropical cyclone is approaching.We are in the peak of the season and its fair to expect things to really ramp in the coming weeks with a nina trying to intensify.Overall i can name you 2 dozen tropical cyclones in a matter of minutes that have impacted the united states in the month of september.I expect things will be busy into late october.Adrian
new blog
osted By: hurricane23 at 1:05 PM GMT on September 08, 2007.
There are no signs of the CV season ending at all lol with 2 waves out in the region with potential for development.The wave at 22N should be watched closely for signs of tropical cyclone development.


I don't buy it..shear, troughs..it's all over but the shouting for CV season.
edit-addition in bold.
The wave just E of the Greater Antilles seems to be the same feature that was near the center of a dry, dusty swirl at 15N 55W a couple of days ago. You can still see this broad S-shaped swirl on wv imagery. It looks more like a "normal" wave and would place the wave axis @ 20N 60W.
98l or not-closer to home right now
Anyone notice a spin near 86.92/23.35, might just be me. looks like something trying to develope