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Gabrielle Dissipates; the Atlantic Quiets Down

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:49 PM GMT on September 06, 2013

After a brief 12-hour stint as a tropical storm, Gabrielle was torn apart Thursday night by a strong tropical disturbance to its east, and interaction with the rough terrain of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The remnants of Gabrielle and the tropical disturbance to its east are generating heavy thunderstorms over Puerto Rico, the Eastern Dominican Republic, and the Virgin Islands, as seen on satellite loops. The tropical disturbance that helped pull Gabrielle apart is a threat to become a tropical depression on its own--NHC put its 5-day odds of development at 30% in their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance is headed to the northwest at 10 - 15 mph, and may merge with Gabrielle's remnants early next week. Heavy thunderstorms from Gabrielle dumped 5.37" of rain on St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands and Southeast Puerto Rico, but the storm did not generate any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any land stations.


Figure 1. Total rainfall from Gabrielle, as compiled by NOAA.

Gabrielle's place in history
Gabrielle's formation date of September 5 (UTC time) comes eleven days earlier than the usual formation date of the season's 7th storm, September 16. However, by this point in the season, we should already have had two hurricanes, one being an intense hurricane, and 2013 has not yet had a hurricane. Gabrielle is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. Only one season since record keeping began in 1851 has had a longer string of consecutive storms that did not reach hurricane strength--2011, when the season began with eight such storms. It is possible such an event occurred before the advent of reliable satellite data in 1966, when we were first able to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. Several seasons have had six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, most recently in 2002. The air over the Tropical Atlantic has been more stable and drier than usual (and was so in 2011), making it difficult for storms to attain hurricane strength. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's latest post, "The Lack of Atlantic Hurricanes: The Saga of Low Relative Humidity Continues", looks at how dry the Tropical Atlantic has been this hurricane season. Part of the unusual dryness, he maintains, is due to dry air coming off the coast of Brazil, which is in severe to extreme drought, according to the global drought monitor. Aon Benfield puts the cost of the Brazilian drought at $8.3 billion so far this year, making it Brazil's most expensive natural disaster in its history.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A tropical wave over the Western Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche (Invest 99L) will move ashore on the Mexican coast near Tampico by early afternoon. Satellite images show that 99L has a moderate area of heavy thunderstorms that are slowly increasing in size and intensity, and the storm may have a closed circulation, as evidenced by northwest winds observed at Tampico, Mexico at 8 am CDT on Friday. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day and 2-day odds of development at 20%.

A tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic about 600 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands (Invest 98L) is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite images show that 98L has a decent amount of spin, but a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorms. The system has encountered an area of dry, stable air, and in their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day and 2-day odds of development at 0%.

A strong tropical wave is predicted to emerge from the coast of Africa on Saturday, and all of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Tuesday. The storm is expected to track to the northwest into a region of ocean where very few tropical cyclones ever make the long crossing of the Atlantic Ocean to threaten North America. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 50%.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

A tired McKenzie earlier this morning waiting for the rain to stop...

Very wicked weather rolled thru central Florida again yesterday causing chaos around the area.

Lightning struck this house down the street from where I work.


Here is a pick of the storms rolling toward my friends house near UCF
Quoting 1489. ackee:
what would guys say have been the main reason we have seen not have a active seasons or no hurricane yet ?

A Dir AIR
B WIND Shear
c weak topical wave
D LOW SST
E All of the Above








None of the above.

Lack of vertical instability, although that is also associated with dry air.

If air is rising, that facilitates cyclogenesis and intensification. If air is sinking, that inhibits.
Folks it appears as if the Western Caribbean & Gulf are going to get active potentially spitting out several systems over the coming weeks.


Quoting 1498. SLU:


Not even the strong MJO was enough. I think it's almost safe to say now that 2013 is an official bust.



Wind shear would really have to relax across the Caribbean for the activity to be much above average there in the next 6 weeks.



Very unusual year to say the least.

All we need is the MJO in octant 1 or high pressure over the Northeast. Both focus convergence in the Caribbean, leading to convective activity. Continuous storms produce latent high which raises pressures in the upper atmosphere. Ta-da.
Quoting 1489. ackee:
what would guys say have been the main reason we have seen not have a active seasons or no hurricane yet ?

A Dir AIR
B WIND Shear
c weak topical wave
D LOW SST
E All of the Above







A. Mid-level dry air.


xGabrielle is blocking our trade winds here... so now it's hot and still.
1508. SLU
Quoting 1505. TropicalAnalystwx13:

All we need is the MJO in octant 1 or high pressure over the Northeast. Both focus convergence in the Caribbean, leading to convective activity. Continuous storms produce latent high which raises pressures in the upper atmosphere. Ta-da.


lol. yeah. that's what the textbook says but 2013 has been anything but textbook!
Gonzo proposed flight track today




Kermit proposed flight track today



Miss Piggy also is flying.


NOAA will fly a three-plane coordinated mission this morning
1510. Grothar
Quoting 1489. ackee:
what would guys say have been the main reason we have seen not have a active seasons or no hurricane yet ?

A Dir AIR
B WIND Shear
c weak topical wave
D LOW SST
E All of the Above








F. CaribBoy wishing too much. :)
1512. SLU
1500. CaribBoy 1:40 PM GMT on September 07, 2013


TIRED !!!! WHEN WILL THE RAIN COME BACK!!!


Maybe in 5-7 days. Large SAL outburst on the horizon.
Quoting 1509. nrtiwlnvragn:
Gonzo proposed flight track today




Kermit proposed flight track today



Miss Piggy also is flying.


NOAA will fly a three-plane coordinated mission this morning


I choose Paul Lynde in the center square.
Quoting 1501. GeoffreyWPB:
A tired McKenzie earlier this morning waiting for the rain to stop...



Hi McKenzie! We're headed out now... BTW, you look mahvelous!
Quoting 1508. SLU:


lol. yeah. that's what the textbook says but 2013 has been anything but textbook!

Got my money on a December major hurricane.
It appears this season is a TOTAL BUST.

Lets try some logic here people.

According to THE CHART Sept 10 is the peak of the season. Also there are an equal number of canes before and after Sept 10.

So, if you take the # of canes in a season by Sept 10 and multiply by two you should have a very close approximation of the total # of canes.

0 X 2 = BUST

Am I wrong?
Rather early to "put-a-fork" in the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. Granted, it's going to be a massive forecasting bust that'll be remembered for seasons to come, but I was about ready to be done with the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season when September ended.. then Sandy happened.

Personally, I think either the western Pacific or the Atlantic (or both) is bound to get a really nasty typhoon/hurricane sometime in the next few weeks or month. As I've stated before, the amount of heat in the tropics does need to be dispersed to the poles, without it things can go ugly. In my uninformed logic, I think that things are building up for a "one-punch-you're-out" storm for either basin.

If not - 2013 will go down with 2006 as the greatest under-performing hurricane season yet, and the least interesting in decades.
1518. Grothar
From last night:

Don't be surprised if ex-Gabrielle puts on a little show tonight or tomorrow.

Some models have been wanting to move ex-Gabrielle back to the west some for at least 4 days


Quoting 1504. StormTrackerScott:
Folks it appears as if the Western Caribbean & Gulf are going to get active potentially spitting out several systems over the coming weeks.


This is 2013..it doesn't follow the rules..And this is sixteen days out.Remember the GFS 13 days ago was showing 4 storms? that never materialized?.Is the MJO over our region?.Sure doesn't look like it.
Looks like dropsonde overload for the models today:
Global Hawk = 78
Gonzo = 26
Kermit = 11

Number not specified for Miss Piggy
1521. WWPR
Quoting 1516. Autistic2:
It appears this season is a TOTAL BUST.

Lets try some logic here people.

According to THE CHART Sept 10 is the peak of the season. Also there are an equal number of canes before and after Sept 10.

So, if you take the # of canes in a season by Sept 10 and multiply by two you should have a very close approximation of the total # of canes.

0 X 2 = BUST

Am I wrong?


Funny thing would be, that the we get them all now in the second half of the season.
CaribBoy, if it wasn't for your user name I'd have assumed that you live in the middle of the Saharan desert with how often you complain of lack of rain.
1523. Grothar
98L trying hard.

Quoting 1517. CybrTeddy:
Rather early to "put-a-fork" in the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. Granted, it's going to be a massive forecasting bust that'll be remembered for seasons to come, but I was about ready to be done with the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season when September ended.. then Sandy happened.

Personally, I think either the western Pacific or the Atlantic (or both) is bound to get a really nasty typhoon/hurricane sometime in the next few weeks or month. As I've stated before, the amount of heat in the tropics does need to be dispersed to the poles, without it things can go ugly. In my uninformed logic, I think that things are building up for a "one-punch-you're-out" storm for us.

If not - 2013 will go down with 2006 as the greatest under-performing hurricane season yet, and the least interesting in decades.

So many people everywhere had been saying that (the energy release part) so I messaged Chris Landsea of the NHC about it. He said having a lack of major hurricanes does not build up energy and guarantee that we get a blockbuster system. He said trade winds and just regular thunderstorm activity does a good job at getting rid of excessive energy. In reality, hurricanes serve little purpose.
Quoting 1517. CybrTeddy:
Rather early to "put-a-fork" in the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. Granted, it's going to be a massive forecasting bust that'll be remembered for seasons to come, but I was about ready to be done with the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season when September ended.. then Sandy happened.

Personally, I think either the western Pacific or the Atlantic (or both) is bound to get a really nasty typhoon/hurricane sometime in the next few weeks or month. As I've stated before, the amount of heat in the tropics does need to be dispersed to the poles, without it things can go ugly. In my uninformed logic, I think that things are building up for a "one-punch-you're-out" storm for either basin.

If not - 2013 will go down with 2006 as the greatest under-performing hurricane season yet, and the least interesting in decades.
Well 2012 already had Isaac by that point that hit L.A so even if 2012 had ended without Sandy it would have been remember for that.Also we had a very active August and activity continued through September with "Never going away Nadine".The storms in 2012 just had aligned center issues but once they got their stuff together they were off to the races.
Quoting 1516. Autistic2:
It appears this season is a TOTAL BUST.

Lets try some logic here people.

According to THE CHART Sept 10 is the peak of the season. Also there are an equal number of canes before and after Sept 10.

So, if you take the # of canes in a season by Sept 10 and multiply by two you should have a very close approximation of the total # of canes.

0 X 2 = BUST

Am I wrong?


Will any of that honestly matter if we end up going with the "it only takes one!" way again with this season?
The EATL feature looks like it could be a Julia repeat...that is if it can get going...and with the way cyclones have been intensifying this year, it may be a long shot.
Quoting 1517. CybrTeddy:
Rather early to "put-a-fork" in the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. Granted, it's going to be a massive forecasting bust that'll be remembered for seasons to come, but I was about ready to be done with the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season when September ended.. then Sandy happened.

Personally, I think either the western Pacific or the Atlantic (or both) is bound to get a really nasty typhoon/hurricane sometime in the next few weeks or month. As I've stated before, the amount of heat in the tropics does need to be dispersed to the poles, without it things can go ugly. In my uninformed logic, I think that things are building up for a "one-punch-you're-out" storm for us.

If not - 2013 will go down with 2006 as the greatest under-performing hurricane season yet.


Thanks, Teddy. I also posted the same "feeling" a couple of days ago. The season officially goes to November 30, and anything can happen. The heat and energy has to dissipate someway and all we need is one big-un! This beginning of the season may just be "the lull before the STORM." JMHO
Quoting 1523. Grothar:
98L trying hard.



Gro...are you surprised that the NHC took away 98L's yellow circle?
1530. WWPR
Quoting 1523. Grothar:
98L trying hard.



Grothar,
Do you think that if it (98L) makes it through the Atlantic. it might make a run for the Islands (as some models have it doing) or curve out to sea?
Quoting 1524. TropicalAnalystwx13:

So many people everywhere had been saying that (the energy release part) so I messaged Chris Landsea of the NHC about it. He said having a lack of major hurricanes does not build up energy and guarantee that we get a blockbuster system. He said trade winds and just regular thunderstorm activity does a good job at getting rid of excessive energy. In reality, hurricanes serve little purpose.
Regardless, it's still a rarity for a tropical cyclone season to go without an intense hurricane. Even the least active hurricane seasons have major hurricanes.
1532. beell
Mid-latitude trough leaves a vigorous upper-level cut-off over the southeast coast early this week on the GFS.

Looks a bit hostile along the western Atlantic.


09/07 00Z GFS 200 mb heights, winds @ 84 hrs
Quoting 1516. Autistic2:
It appears this season is a TOTAL BUST.

Lets try some logic here people.

According to THE CHART Sept 10 is the peak of the season. Also there are an equal number of canes before and after Sept 10.

So, if you take the # of canes in a season by Sept 10 and multiply by two you should have a very close approximation of the total # of canes.

0 X 2 = BUST

Am I wrong?


C&P

Forecasters say a system expected to emerge off the coast of Africa may strengthen into a hurricane by early next week. But whatever happens in the coming days, Feltgen cautioned it was still too early to write off 2013 as a year when tropical weather was unpredictable.

"We are at mid-point of the six-month hurricane season," he said. "It is a mistake to believe that the second half of the season would resemble the first half," he said.

The first hurricane in 2001, Erin, only formed on Sept. 9, Feltgen said. "That season ended with 15 named storms including nine hurricanes, four of which became major hurricanes."
1534. Grothar






98L putting on a show.

Quoting 1525. washingtonian115:
Well 2012 already had Isaac by that point that hit L.A so even if 2012 had ended without Sandy it would have been remember for that.Also we had a very active August and activity continued through September with "Never going away Nadine".The storms in 2012 just had aligned center issues but once they got their stuff together they were off to the races.


I'm aware of the storms we had in 2012, and I can dig up hundreds of posts of people complaining about what a boring season it's been.

Isaac, in a normal hurricane season, would have more than likely become a major hurricane, same with Ernesto and Leslie. Although Isaac's effects were comparable to a major hurricane with storm surge, it honestly could have been significantly much worse. September sure we had Michael, but we also only had two storms form in September after an insane August: Michael and Nadine. September only seemed active to you because Nadine lasted for most of the month. October, however, had 5 named storms.. including two hurricanes and one major hurricane.

We're not done here folks.
Quoting 1516. Autistic2:
It appears this season is a TOTAL BUST.

Lets try some logic here people.

According to THE CHART Sept 10 is the peak of the season. Also there are an equal number of canes before and after Sept 10.

So, if you take the # of canes in a season by Sept 10 and multiply by two you should have a very close approximation of the total # of canes.

0 X 2 = BUST

Am I wrong?
From a logic standpoint, yes, you are wrong. That's like assuming that a football game will end as a 0-0 tie because that's the score at halftime.

However...it is entirely possible--though not quite probable just yet--for 2013 to end without an Atlantic hurricane. And how awesome would that be?
Quoting 1531. MiamiHurricanes09:
Regardless, it's still a rarity for a tropical cyclone season to go without an intense hurricane. Even the least active hurricane seasons have major hurricane.

No doubt. I think the Caribbean will be the hotbed for activity next month, but I've been wrong plenty of times already. -_-
1538. Grothar
Quoting 1529. GeoffreyWPB:


Gro...are you surprised that the NHC took away 98L's yellow circle?


I was shocked and dismayed.
Quoting 1512. SLU:
1500. CaribBoy 1:40 PM GMT on September 07, 2013


TIRED !!!! WHEN WILL THE RAIN COME BACK!!!


Maybe in 5-7 days. Large SAL outburst on the horizon.


Maybe XD
Quoting 1538. Grothar:


I was shocked and dismayed.


Twit! :)
I wonder if the active period that began in 1995 ended suddenly in 2013. What do you think Teddy,Tx 13,09,SLU?
Quoting 1522. CybrTeddy:
CaribBoy, if it wasn't for your user name I'd have assumed that you live in the middle of the Saharan desert with how often you complain of lack of rain.


I'm just not lucky this year.

Oh.. and I'm happy I'm still not in your ignore list :)


Middle East troubles. If there were GoM storms...bubba!
Quoting 1501. GeoffreyWPB:
A tired McKenzie earlier this morning waiting for the rain to stop...

He looks like he has had enough of this blog
Quoting 1524. TropicalAnalystwx13:

So many people everywhere had been saying that (the energy release part) so I messaged Chris Landsea of the NHC about it. He said having a lack of major hurricanes does not build up energy and guarantee that we get a blockbuster system. He said trade winds and just regular thunderstorm activity does a good job at getting rid of excessive energy. In reality, hurricanes serve little purpose.


Nope. Everything that mother nature generates serves a purpose. Hurricanes move heat from the tropics to the poles, but I guess one could argue that there's so much heat in the poles already that hurricanes are becoming unnecessary.
Quoting 1541. Tropicsweatherpr:
I wonder if the active period that began in 1995 ended suddenly in 2013. What do you think Teddy,Tx 13,09?


I hope no
Quoting 1526. CybrTeddy:


Will any of that honestly matter if we end up going with the "it only takes one!" way again with this season?


Just trying on some rational thinking. Theory hurts my head and my emotions responses don't follow the norms of society so I try to stick with concrete concepts.

My very presence on this bog is an attempt at generalization of social skills. I AM GETTING BETTER.

Weather, will the absence of canes make the one that does form expediently more bad?
We may be getting development in the BOC from a vigorous trough split in about 5-6 days per the ECWMF/GFS.
Quoting 1535. CybrTeddy:


I'm aware of the storms we had in 2012, and I can dig up hundreds of posts of people complaining about what a boring season it's been.

Isaac, in a normal hurricane season, would have more than likely become a major hurricane, same with Ernesto and Leslie. Although Isaac's effects were comparable to a major hurricane with storm surge, it honestly could have been significantly much worse. September sure we had Michael, but we also only had two storms form in September after an insane August: Michael and Nadine. September only seemed active to you because Nadine lasted for most of the month. October, however, had 5 named storms.. including two hurricanes and one major hurricane.

We're not done here folks.

Did you enjoy the thunderstorm yesterday over Orlando? Did you catch the microburst Tom Terry showed on Channel 9 live? That was neat.
Quoting 1513. GeoffreyWPB:


I choose Paul Lynde in the center square.
He was hilarious ... Loved Charlie Weaver and Wally Cox... Hated Rose Marie

Lightning Delays NFL Game Between Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens


DENVER -- The NFL's season opener between the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos began 33 minutes late and in a light drizzle.

The game was delayed from a 6:40 p.m. local time kickoff because of lightning. Some of the Broncos took the field as a heavy rain began to fall. The Ravens came out of the tunnel moments later, to a chorus of boos from the crowd.

About the time of the national anthem, the rain began to taper off. An announcement was made earlier in the stadium that any fans who wanted to seek shelter could go to the concourses. Very few of left their seats.

The temperature at kickoff was 83 degrees, a drastic change from when Baltimore and Denver met at Mile High in January for a playoff game. Back then, the temperature was 13 degrees as the Ravens ended the Broncos' season 38-35 in double overtime.

The Broncos won Thursday night's game 49-27.

Below are reports from throughout social media regarding the lightning delay shortly before the highly anticipated professional football season opener
1552. Grothar
Quoting 1530. WWPR:


Grothar,
Do you think that if it (98L) makes it through the Atlantic. it might make a run for the Islands (as some models have it doing) or curve out to sea?


Almost all the models have 98L moving west or even
SW until about 60W. After that it doesn't look all that good for development. But if it can change in 2 days it could have a good shot. I don't see any indications of a northern movement yet.

Quoting 1547. Autistic2:


Just trying on some rational thinking. Theory hurts my head and my emotions responses don't follow the norms of society so I try to stick with concrete concepts.

My very presence on this bog is an attempt at generalization of social skills. I AM GETTING BETTER.

Weather, will the absence of canes make the one that does form expediently more bad?


That's what I believe, and from what I've a lot of mets have a similar line of thinking although do not directly link "lack of hurricanes" with "more significant ones." The thinking is that there will be less hurricanes, but the ones that do form could end up being like Sandy.
Quoting 1549. sporteguy03:

Did you enjoy the thunderstorm yesterday over Orlando? Did you catch the microburst Tom Terry showed on Channel 9 live? That was neat.


Too busy flipping breakers after lightning nearly hit my house in Hillsborough county to notice.
98l having so much difficulties in the MDR on SEPTEMBER 7... WELL..................
1557. Grothar
Quoting 1550. PalmBeachWeather:
He was hilarious ... Loved Charlie Weaver and Wally Cox... Hated Rose Marie


She was on there longer than anybody. She was very funny and bright. She is also known as the first woman of Las Vegas. (And I thought you and I thought alike, well entertainment-wise anyway :)
1558. ricderr
It appears this season is a TOTAL BUST.


i would have to disagree......we may be watching history here...the first year since modern technology has allowed us to see storms in far reaching ocean areas where we do not have a hurricane....1 in a 100 year event....
1559. beell
Quoting 1536. Neapolitan:
From a logic standpoint, yes, you are wrong. That's like assuming that a football game will end as a 0-0 tie because that's the score at halftime.

However...it is entirely possible--though not quite probable just yet--for 2013 to end without an Atlantic hurricane. And how awesome would that be?


Only if you assume the atmosphere is hell-bent on scoring a TD.

Although a year without a hurricane would be totally awesome. I'm rooting for a shut-out just for the sheer novelty.
Quoting 1557. Grothar:


She was on there longer than anybody. She was very funny and bright. She is also known as the first woman of Las Vegas. (And I thought you and I thought alike, well entertainment-wise anyway :)
Gro... I think it was her regular response when she didn't have a funny quip of always saying" I can shut this TV show down" answer
About 1/2 the Experimental GFS Ensemble showing BOC/GOM









Link
1562. WWPR
Quoting 1552. Grothar:


Almost all the models have 98L moving west or even
SW until about 60W. After that it doesn't look all that good for development. But if it can change in 2 days it could have a good shot. I don't see any indications of a northern movement yet.



Thank you Sir.
1563. Grothar
You can see in this image how ex-Gabrielle is being flattened on the western side and being elongated by upper level winds and the winds are getting stronger.


Watching grandkids today... Daugthter and friends are a Canes-Gator game... They left at 5:00 am.. She sent a picture text... Tailgating already..
1565. ricderr
You can see in this image how ex-Gabrielle is being flattened on the western side and being elongated by upper level winds and the winds are getting stronger.



not to worry....she'll regenerate and become a cat 5....cough cough
Quoting 1552. Grothar:


Almost all the models have 98L moving west or even
SW until about 60W. After that it doesn't look all that good for development. But if it can change in 2 days it could have a good shot. I don't see any indications of a northern movement yet.



My wish for 98L :

I want it to spin up near 14N 55W, then rapidly intensify into a beautiful, round, symmetric, slow, wet and strong TS before entering the Leewards...

...bringing weather to most of us in the Lesser Antilles, and borderline hurricane condition for me!

Well, I want another FREDERIC!

Lol yes, I'm a big wishcaster (but not wishcasting for a major)
Quoting 1557. Grothar:


She was on there longer than anybody. She was very funny and bright. She is also known as the first woman of Las Vegas. (And I thought you and I thought alike, well entertainment-wise anyway :)
Now Tim Conway was the funniest person I have ever seen... Especially on Carol Burnett Show... Google Tim Conway telling the Siamese elephant story... Makes me *** my pants.
i believe we are still ahead of most years with 8 storms already. 10 more is definetly within reach. and we still have the peak and little peak in october yet to go
1569. Grothar
Quoting 1560. PalmBeachWeather:
Gro... I think it was her regular response when she didn't have a funny quip of always saying" I can shut this TV show down" answer


Funny, I don't remember that. Last Friday, we watched a taped marathon of the shows and she was pretty funny.

If you go on Youtube, there is a video of 49 shows plus many clips of other shows. (Now you people know what I do in my spare time)

And actually this is not off-topic since during the filming of the shows there was constant weather.
Quoting 1569. Grothar:


Funny, I don't remember that. Last Friday, we watched a taped marathon of the shows and she was pretty funny.

If you go on Youtube, there is a video of 49 shows plus many clips of other shows. (Now you people know what I do in my spare time)

And actually this is not off-topic since during the filming of the shows there was constant weather.
Yes, very windy that day....Remember it well.
1571. Grothar
Quoting 1566. CaribBoy:


My wish for 98L :

I want it to spin up near 14N 55W, then rapidly intensify into a beautiful, round, symmetric, slow, wet and strong TS before entering the Leewards...

...bringing weather to most of us in the Lesser Antilles, and borderline hurricane condition for me!

Well, I want another FREDERIC!

Lol yes, I'm a big wishcaster (but not wishcasting for a major)


Why I am shocked. I've never heard you talk like this. There will be an upswing of activity very soon folks.
1572. ricderr
i believe we are still ahead of most years with 8 storms already. 10 more is definetly within reach. and we still have the peak and little peak in october yet to go



you're right...but there are many here who will claim it a bust unless there is death and destruction...it's like those that go to the races..it's not exciting to them without a wreck or two
Quoting 1563. Grothar:
You can see in this image how ex-Gabrielle is being flattened on the western side and being elongated by upper level winds and the winds are getting stronger.




My friend Dry Air is helping us here again.


: )
Quoting 1572. ricderr:
i believe we are still ahead of most years with 8 storms already. 10 more is definetly within reach. and we still have the peak and little peak in october yet to go



you're right...but there are many here who will claim it a bust unless there is death and destruction...it's like those that go to the races..it's not exciting to them without a wreck or two
well its not a very active season so far with any canes, but they will come , we have 8 more weeks of peek season yet and the waters are super warm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 07 2013

A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION BRIEFLY REDEVELOPED NEAR LORENA...
PROBABLY JUST AN ARTIFACT OF THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM PERIOD...AND THE
CENTER IS AGAIN BECOMING EXPOSED ON FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY.
DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST 30 KT IS A GOOD INITIAL INTENSITY. AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO MORE STABLE AIR...IT
SHOULD LOSE ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. THE LATEST NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. LORENA WILL
PROBABLY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12H.

BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 300/5. LORENA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE IT GETS CAUGHT IN
RATHER LIGHT LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS. THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWS
LITTLE NET MOTION AFTER 12H...AND THE SMALL CIRCULATION SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 23.8N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 24.0N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1200Z 24.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0000Z 24.0N 112.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Quoting 1561. nrtiwlnvragn:
About 1/2 the Experimental GFS Ensemble showing BOC/GOM









Link
Probably will end up as another repeat of Fernand...although members 3 and 11 show a distinct, albeit unrealistic possibility should environmental conditions be sufficiently conducive.
Quoting 1571. Grothar:


Why I am shocked. I've never heard you talk like this. There will be an upswing of activity very soon folks.


Lol most of the folks here know that I want a storm.. because I love bad weather and it brings fun. However, I don't want devastation and wish that to anyone.. which is why I only wish for a low-end hurricane at most, but a well organized one.
1578. ricderr
And actually this is not off-topic since during the filming of the shows there was constant weather.



<<>

actually....if you look...over half the comments do not meet the blog standards....so..if they pop you with a ban..they'll have to pop all of us...and then...well...doc's blog will be very quiet :-)
But Gro, are you really shocked? Or is that just humor :)


David (left) Frederic (right)
1581. beell
Quoting 1568. meteorite:
i believe we are still ahead of most years with 8 storms already. 10 more is definetly within reach. and we still have the peak and little peak in october yet to go


7 storms, 1 TD.
Quoting 1572. ricderr:
i believe we are still ahead of most years with 8 storms already. 10 more is definetly within reach. and we still have the peak and little peak in october yet to go



you're right...but there are many here who will claim it a bust unless there is death and destruction...it's like those that go to the races..it's not exciting to them without a wreck or two


I have been through three canes. One on land and two on the ocean on a WHEC USCGC. Even when they ONLY affect the shipping lanes they enverily catch someone by surprise.

Then they call the CG for help. We had a saying. You have to go out, you don't have to come back! That is how I got hurt so bad.
For everyone who thought all of Florida had too much rain in August:



MIAMI
-
SOUTH FLORIDA
Natio
nal Weather Service
Forecast Office
http://www.weather.gov/miami
August
2013 W
eather
S
ummary
Wet West, Dry East
September
3
, 2013
:
Subtropical
h
igh p
ressure
dominated south Florida’s weather
pattern throughout much of August. This high pressure area, often referred to as the
Bermuda High, extended from the Atlantic a
cross Florida and led to a predominantly
easterly flow over the region
. This
allowed the Atlantic sea breeze to penetrate well
inland most days
and focused the typical summer
showers and thunderstorms over
interior and western portions of the south Florida
peninsula (Figure 1).
This pattern led to a large difference in rainfall totals across the area from east to west,
with
below normal
rainfall
across
the majority of the region, including
the eastern
metropolitan areas, but above
to well
-
above
norma
l acr
oss portions of Hendry,
Glades
,
and western Collier
counties (Figure 2).
This discrepancy is highlighted by eastern metro
locations such as
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport and Homestead
General Airport
registering their
4
th
and 2
nd
driest
August on record
, respectively
;
with
LaBelle on the other extreme registering its 2
nd
wettest August on record.
Table 1
displays a table of rainfall information for south Florida;
m
ore data is available from the
South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) here
.
Quoting 1571. Grothar:


Why I am shocked. I've never heard you talk like this. There will be an upswing of activity very soon folks.
Tudball and Wiggins
1585. bappit
Quoting 1428. hydrus:
I know. That huge MJO pulse was rather puny.

Just hyped.


Come on 98L.....
Quoting 1563. Grothar:
You can see in this image how ex-Gabrielle is being flattened on the western side and being elongated by upper level winds and the winds are getting stronger.


look like jet stream winds down there to


98L most recent pass

All it needs is thunderstorms
Blob alert - 84 hours NAM over Cuba
Quoting 1551. hurricanes2018:

Lightning Delays NFL Game Between Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens


DENVER -- The NFL's season opener between the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos began 33 minutes late and in a light drizzle.

The game was delayed from a 6:40 p.m. local time kickoff because of lightning. Some of the Broncos took the field as a heavy rain began to fall. The Ravens came out of the tunnel moments later, to a chorus of boos from the crowd.

About the time of the national anthem, the rain began to taper off. An announcement was made earlier in the stadium that any fans who wanted to seek shelter could go to the concourses. Very few of left their seats.

The temperature at kickoff was 83 degrees, a drastic change from when Baltimore and Denver met at Mile High in January for a playoff game. Back then, the temperature was 13 degrees as the Ravens ended the Broncos' season 38-35 in double overtime.

The Broncos won Thursday night's game 49-27.

Below are reports from throughout social media regarding the lightning delay shortly before the highly anticipated professional football season opener



The local met's in Tampa Bay were laughing and joking about how lame the thunderstorm was compared to the ones we get here. They were making a big deal and freaking out as if it was massive threat when the thunderstorm produced a pitiful 13 lightning strikes, none of which were anywhere near the stadium. They than began to discuss how it was "pouring" with giant rain drops, lol what a joke, it was like 0.5 inch per hour rain rates.


The local met's were really getting a kick out of it, especially because during the same time there were thunderstorms producing over 5000 lightning strikes in one just 1 hour in around Tampa Bay reaching 40 to 50,000 ft and rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour.
Quoting 1572. ricderr:
i believe we are still ahead of most years with 8 storms already. 10 more is definetly within reach. and we still have the peak and little peak in october yet to go



you're right...but there are many here who will claim it a bust unless there is death and destruction...it's like those that go to the races..it's not exciting to them without a wreck or two


People on the gulf coast of Mexico think the season is going full throttle.
1592. Grothar
Quoting 1579. CaribBoy:
But Gro, are you really shocked? Or is that just humor :)


What is shocking is that after all this time you really have to ask that question. :)
1593. ricderr
Then they call the CG for help. We had a saying. You have to go out, you don't have to come back! That is how I got hurt so bad.


better you than me on the ocean autistic....afrid i was feeling seasick on an inner tude at the water park last weekend...i don't do big waves very well.....

now about your name....do you work with autistic children...have one?....my S/O and I have 3 on the spectrum
1594. Kyon5

Quoting 1586. CaribBoy:


Come on 98L.....
It's trying. Models indicate that 98L will take a NW path and then flip to the SW. Still too early to say where it will go, since it's practically stationary.


1595. beell
Surface trough hung up for a bit along the Mexican coast.



Have a good afternoon all.... Heading to Coconut Creek to Butterfly World with the grandkids... It's grandparents day... Freebie
Quoting 1568. meteorite:
i believe we are still ahead of most years with 8 storms already. 10 more is definetly within reach. and we still have the peak and little peak in october yet to go
10 more is definetly within reach? WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING TODAY???? Not with this kind of messed up season. By the way, I didn't know we had eight storms this year.
Quoting 1593. ricderr:
Then they call the CG for help. We had a saying. You have to go out, you don't have to come back! That is how I got hurt so bad.


better you than me on the ocean autistic....afrid i was feeling seasick on an inner tude at the water park last weekend...i don't do big waves very well.....

now about your name....do you work with autistic children...have one?....my S/O and I have 3 on the spectrum
I have 2 with at least PDD.
Quoting 1592. Grothar:


What is shocking is that after all this time you really have to ask that question. :)


XD lol
1600. bappit
Quoting 1595. beell:
Surface trough hung up for a bit along the Mexican coast.

Some potential there.
Miss Piggy up and away, Google Earth Recon
1602. SLU
Quoting 1541. Tropicsweatherpr:
I wonder if the active period that began in 1995 ended suddenly in 2013. What do you think Teddy,Tx 13,09,SLU?


The thought came across by mind a couple days ago but the conditions this year are very similar to what we've seen in the last 18 years apart from the dry/stable air that has limited upward motion. Hence an active season was expected just like in 2006 which also busted. We were eventually due for a bust season anyway after 57 named storms in the last three seasons. The active period should last a while longer.
If I may say so,

I really appreciate a lot of the graphs and model runs people post on here, many of them I don't know where to find myself. However, please don't post one that is 240+ hours out showing some massive storm at and comment those people had better get ready, they are about to get hit. Historically, and especially this season, nothing that far out has developed even close to the original prediction. Since July the GFS or UKMET or some other model has had a ~960ish mb storm sitting off the east coast or out in the atlantic at the end of their runs, and obviously they have yet to occur.

Instead of posting end run models, why not post the one that ends 5 days out, as even Dr. Masters has noted, that's about as far out as they can semi-accurately project. Anything further is pure fantasy this year.
98L has a modest amount of spin, but little convection. on the recent sat photo it can clearly be seen that low level clouds are converging towards the LLC, from the south west.
1605. SLU
Quoting 1580. CaribBoy:


David (left) Frederic (right)


Based on the JJA 500mb pattern, I really thought we'd see stuff like that this year: Long-tracked Cape Verde hurricanes that just kept on moving westwards.
1606. SLU
Quoting 1602. SLU:


The thought came across by mind a couple days ago but the conditions this year are very similar to what we've seen in the last 18 years apart from the dry/stable air that has limited upward motion. Hence an active season was expected just like in 2006 which also busted. We were eventually due for a bust season anyway after 57 named storms in the last three seasons. The active period should last a while longer.


If we don't get a full blown El Nino next year, 2014 should still be active.


Top to bottom:
Global Hawk
Gulfstream IV
NOAA 43
NOAA 42



Link
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1541. Tropicsweatherpr:
I wonder if the active period that began in 1995 ended suddenly in 2013. What do you think Teddy,Tx 13,09,SLU?

The AMO is still positive. That's not the issue.
1610. will40
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/commen t.html?entrynum=2515#commentop

new blog
Quoting 1609. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The AMO is still positive. That's not the issue.
I don't think we have a complete understanding yet of drought conditions overland and their affects on tropical activity over water. I'll use a perfect example, use Tropical Storms Don and Lee. Don went poof! and Lee was heavily sheared off to the East.
1612. GatorWX
Well, looky there



A bit sheared, yes, but coming together it would seem.