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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

From the Lee Side: Penn State's Lee Grenci now a featured wunderblogger

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:24 PM GMT on December 12, 2012

"From the Lee Side" is the blog of wunderground's newest featured blogger--Lee Grenci. Lee put up his first post today, an educational piece on "Arctic Air Masses." He did an earlier guest post in Angela's blog, "The science of Sandy's transition", on whether or not Sandy was a hurricane at landfall (it wasn't.) Lee resides in Pennsylvania, and just retired as senior lecturer in Meteorology at Penn State University, where he was the lead faculty member for their online certificate in weather forecasting. I've been enjoying Lee's writings for many years in Weatherwise magazine, where he is a frequent contributor. Welcome, Lee!

While I'm on the subject of featured bloggers, I want to draw attention to the latest post by TWC's Stu Ostro, "Reflections on a surreal superstorm and the 2012 hurricane season". He discusses NHC's decision not to issue Hurricane Warnings for Sandy, as well as how climate change may have influenced the storm. TWC's Bryan Norcross has also posted his take on NHC's decision not to post hurricane warnings for Sandy.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Always nice to see a new blogger!
Posted this in the last blog, before the transition. Introducing... the Andrew no one knows about:



Link
We need to be able to adjust the speed on the visible loop on WunderMap
FRONT IS GETTING CLOSER...
Thanks Dr Masters
Quoting TheCloudyskies:
Thanks Dr Masters





Great avatar!!!




Thanks Doc
Quoting TomballTXPride:





Great avatar!!!






Oh Thank you , I like yours too .
Quoting TheCloudyskies:


Oh Thank you , I like yours too .




:)



ppl come 2 weather chat so we can talk about the cold air nextweek and the snow for fl
overcast now but no rain here yet
probably tonight................THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...PRIMARILY FROM THE TAMPA METRO
SOUTHWARD. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.




Largo ~ Might be getting wet soon enough...







Quoting LargoFl:
FRONT IS GETTING CLOSER...

And its getting bigger too!!!!!




As we move further south down the spine, the rain threat remains persistent...







Wow! Great addition!
Quoting bappit:
Wow! Great addition!





Bap ~ What happened to our rain?

Why only Florida????



Quoting thunderbug91:
think it will be bad here tonight?
Quoting TheCloudyskies:


Oh Thank you , I like yours too .

Welcome to the blog. Hope you find it useful like we do!:) Lots of good things can be found throughout each discussion...
Quoting KoritheMan:
Posted this in the last blog, before the transition. Introducing... the Andrew no one knows about:



Link


you are right...I did not know that one

by the way...does anyone here know why in the nhc site there is a false Special TWO
IT'S DECEMBER 2...NOT TODAY


000
ABNT20 KNHC 030101
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN AZORES IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE
PROCESS OF ACQUIRING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND DEVELOPMENT INTO
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting LargoFl:
think it will be bad here tonight?
I was discussing it with Jedkins last blog... something doesn't seem to be adding up. I still think there is a high potential for severe development, but I don't know if it will actually happen or if it does, how widespread it will be. But definitely stay on the alert...
According to Bay News 9 Meteorologist Juli Marquez, there will be a few showers early this morning, then increasing rain chances this afternoon and this evening. Rain chances are 70 percent.

"Most of the area will be dry early today," Marquez said. "But as the cold front slowly works its way through the Bay area this afternoon and evening, there will be a good opportunity for showers and storms."

Morning temperatures in the low 70s will only reach the upper 70s this afternoon.
Thursday will be cooler, with temperatures in the mid 50s to 60 degrees in the morning and the upper 60s to low 70s tomorrow afternoon. It will also be breezy.
Quoting TomballTXPride:





Bap ~ What happened to our rain?

Why only Florida????





Cuz they have water on all sides of them and better atmospheric conditions and we're in a drought with SW mid levels bringing in dry air which mitigates our rain chances and puts us deeper into the hole.
Quoting TomballTXPride:





Bap ~ What happened to our rain?

Why only Florida????



because the front has passed you already and dry air behind it, once the front dies out over my area..all the rain stops again..
Quoting thunderbug91:

Welcome to the blog. Hope you find it useful like we do!:) Lots of good things can be found throughout each discussion...


Just feeling my way into it . You know, it can be difficult starting to blog on an established community, as a new blogger but a long time lurker. Thank you for the welcome .
Thank you Dr. Masters....Welcome Mr. Grenci
The 12z Euro bombs nor'easter.

Quoting RitaEvac:


Cuz they have water on all sides of them and better atmospheric conditions and we're in a drought with SW mid levels bringing in dry air which mitigates our rain chances and puts us deeper into the hole.




Not necessary, Rita. In fact, climatology disagrees with ya.

Your in Galveston, correct? I'm in Tomball, at least for part of the year.

We see almost the same amount of precipitation on average.

I will agree though lately it's been dry. But I remember Florida having some dry spells a few years back.







From Grenci's blog:

"Here in central Pennsylvania, cold weather has been hard to come by this autumn and this winter, so I looked enviously at the Arctic air mass that has dipped into the Upper Middle West this morning (09Z surface analysis)."

Wash has a kindred blogger.
Thanks Doc.
For the benefit of the community....
In addition to the fine text forecasts and alert services offered by our home site, there are other good resources I have found helpful-- and its all free!

wunderground.com: for those who didn't know, there is a great moble alert subscription you can use that notifies you of emergencies and gives forecasts. I use it all the time.

ialert.com: provides nationwide alerts on severe weather, civic emergencies, etc.

WTSP.com: For my fellow Bay area bloggers, this site gives you excellent detailed weather forecasts, storm warnings, and breaking news updates through text messaging if you subscribe. I love it!

Once again, these subscriptions are all free of charge, and safe-- I have used all 3 for a while now. Just thought to share them with everyone!
Quoting TheCloudyskies:


Just feeling my way into it . You know, it can be difficult starting to blog on an established community, as a new blogger but a long time lurker. Thank you for the welcome .

not a problem. Glad to have you join us.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Cuz they have water on all sides of them and better atmospheric conditions and we're in a drought with SW mid levels bringing in dry air which mitigates our rain chances and puts us deeper into the hole.




Here's a better map, Rita.

This is December only. On average, SE TX sees more rain, with the exception of the NW Panhandle of FL up where Doug is.

I am so jealous of Florida right now.

LOL





Quoting TomballTXPride:




Here's a better map, Rita.

This is December only. On average, SE TX sees more rain, with the exception of the NW Panhandle of FL up where Doug is.

I am so jealous of Florida right now.

LOL






and im SO not jealous of TX right now.....
I am uncertain about the possibility of severe weather but we should keep an eye on the line of storms building in the gulf south of the big bend
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
I am uncertain about the possibility of severe weather but we should keep an eye on the line of storms building in the gulf south of the big bend

exactly
Quoting thunderbug91:

and im SO not jealous of TX right now.....




:(







Stay positive Rita, for the both of us...





Quoting TomballTXPride:





Bap ~ What happened to our rain?

Why only Florida????





Because we sacrificed a ham sammich with cheese and mustard to the rain Gods... and I washed my car.

Welcome aboard Lee, glad to have you!
Quoting TomballTXPride:




:(




Seriously though i hope you guys get some needed rain.I can only imagine how it really is based on what i've heard
Quoting LargoFl:
think it will be bad here tonight?


Heh Largo. Finally got some decent rains. Last night total reached .93 WooHoo!!
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Heh Largo. Finally got some decent rains. Last night total reached .93 WooHoo!!

Might get that tonight too
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
I am uncertain about the possibility of severe weather but we should keep an eye on the line of storms building in the gulf south of the big bend

Look at the red smudge embedded inside the leading edge. Radar has it with a vorticity signature already
Quoting thunderbug91:

Might get that tonight too


Thanks bug91. I'll take it. The rain sure perked up my winter veggie garden!
Quoting TomballTXPride:




Here's a better map, Rita.

This is December only. On average, SE TX sees more rain, with the exception of the NW Panhandle of FL up where Doug is.

I am so jealous of Florida right now.

LOL







Yes, but those rains aren't happening
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Thanks bug91. I'll take it. The rain sure perked up my winter veggie garden!

lol the rain gave me a free windshield wash
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Heh Largo. Finally got some decent rains. Last night total reached .93 WooHoo!!


Gal I am delighted for you .. I must have willed it to ya ;)I have had no rain for 3 days Happy Days!!!
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Heh Largo. Finally got some decent rains. Last night total reached .93 WooHoo!!
thats great news..just came back from the store and rain drops on the windshield..my rain is getting closer..probably be a wet rush hour here..now off to the post office see ya all later..stay safe out there.
Gravity Powered Lightbulbs

Might not just be for the developing world if we have more disasters.

More details.

Actually not gravity powered. Human powered.

"With GravityLight, however, it only takes a few seconds to lift the weight, which creates enough energy for half an an hour of light, whenever it is needed."

Edit: If it is too good to be true, it probably is.
Looks like an active pattern for the U.S..Severe weather very possible....Link

Check out how the thunderstorms are popping up in rows inland ahead of the leading line....
Quoting bappit:
Gravity Powered Lightbulbs

Might not just be for the developing world if we have more disasters.


Awesome innovation!
RSS satellite data has November 2012 as the 11th warmest since 1979 for the globe (11 out of 34).
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Awesome innovation!

They are "at the working prototype stage". Another link.

Edit: If it is too good to be true, it probably is.
New GFS stays south of Atlanta/Huntsville with Warm sector:


EURO staying similiar to last run:

Noreaster?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
EURO staying similiar to last run:

Noreaster?

..and its a big 'un too..
Look what's blowing in the wind.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/dec/12 /mps-insecticide-regulators-bees

"...the world's most widely used insecticide ..."

"A growing body of scientific evidence has linked the widespread use of neonicotinoid pesticides on crops to a serious decline in the bees and other pollinators, which are vital in producing a third of all food.
...it could be 10 times more persistent in soils than the European safety limit."

"The insecticide in question is called imidacloprid and is manufactured by Bayer. Prof Dave Goulson, an ecologist at the University of Stirling, said: "The data show unequivocally that imidacloprid breaks down very slowly in soil, so that concentrations increase significantly year after year with repeated use, accumulating to concentrations very likely to cause mass mortality in most soil-dwelling animal life.""
ECMWF trended stronger and a tad more north:




Some nice onshore flow with the noreaster
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
ECMWF trended stronger and a tad more north:




Some nice onshore flow with the noreaster

Looks like we would feel the effects of it too...
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
New GFS stays south of Atlanta/Huntsville with Warm sector:


Their is no snow for me...So I'm not excited.I know it's a long way out but the models show it either going far to north of us or far to south.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Their is no snow for me...So I'm not excited.I know it's a long way out but the models show it either going far to north of us or far to south.

There's never any snow for me down here... But that's ok, I like it that way
Wow cold cold cold christmas for FL!!
Quoting thunderbug91:

There's never any snow for me down here... But that's ok, I like it that way
D.C is usually in a position where one air mass wins out over the other.The trend has been of the warmer air masses winning over these three winters.So we'll see with this new storm.Things would have to be perfectly in line for a big snow event.
Quoting washingtonian115:
D.C is usually in a position where one air mass wins out over the other.The trend has been of the warmer air masses winning over these three winters.So we'll see with this new storm.Things would have to be perfectly in line for a big snow event.

it looks like it could be big enough...
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow cold cold cold christmas for FL!!
Bring it on! Could even use some snow too :~P
Thanks Jeff. Eleven lines and one picture; shortest entry ever?...
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Awesome innovation!


It really is, and so dang simple too. I want one. I have several wind up flashlights stashed away for emergencies, this would be handy for a lot of things.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Their is no snow for me...So I'm not excited.I know it's a long way out but the models show it either going far to north of us or far to south.


This run I got snow..next run, well..
Quoting thunderbug91:

Look at the red smudge embedded inside the leading edge. Radar has it with a vorticity signature already

If that area persists we could be in for a rough evening.
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:

If that area persists we could be in for a rough evening.

Yea its growing bigger. At least one other mesocyclone developing south of the original one. Look at the ripple effect forming all of those outflow boundaries ahead of the system. I think its about to get crazy around here....
T. Boone Pickens


Big Idea 2013: Governors Take Energy Into Their Own Hands. The development of new sources of energy - at the state level - will be the big idea...



Quoting ncstorm:


This run I got snow..next run, well..
Lol reminds me of the 010-011 winter when parts of N.C got more snow than D.C.
Looks like Jedkins might be right. Tonight might be out severe wx event.....
sflweatherman how cold is that and can u meet me in weather chat
three MCs detected already in the leading line
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol reminds me of the 010-011 winter when parts of N.C got more snow than D.C.


We will see..it may end up being 80 degrees on Christmas..LOL
Quoting bappit:
Gravity Powered Lightbulbs

Might not just be for the developing world if we have more disasters.

More details.

Actually not gravity powered. Human powered.

"With GravityLight, however, it only takes a few seconds to lift the weight, which creates enough energy for half an an hour of light, whenever it is needed."



Gravitational potential energy is not much over small height changes such as those that might occur inside a home or other sheltered space.

The linear approximation is:

Ep = Mgh

2 meters might be the height change in a house.

This suggests a potential energy of 19.76 Joules per kilogram.

This is enough energy to run a 13 watt bulb for about 1.5 seconds if it was converted to electricity with ideal efficiency.

Alternate calculation:

2m = (1/2)at^2

4m = at^2
4m/9.88(m/s^2) = t^2

0.6363 ~ t

v = at = 6.2865m/s

Ek = (1/2)m*v^2 = 19.76 Joules.


So the approximation is close enough near the Earth.

Either way, something is rong with the picture, as there is nowhere near enough Gravitational potential in this device to produce any useful amount of lighting.

One tenth of one watt would only last about 3 minutes per kilogram lifted by 2 meters with ideal efficiency (impossible)...
Quoting ncstorm:


We will see..it may end up being 80 degrees on Christmas..LOL
Models love getting people excited(or worried) depending on what situation it is.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Models love getting people excited(or worried) depending on what situation it is.


right now I am excited but as I said, the next model run will be farther north or west..
Quoting RTSplayer:



Gravitational potential energy is not much over small height changes such as those that might occur inside a home or other sheltered space.

The linear approximation is:

Ep = Mgh

2 meters might be the height change in a house.

This suggests a potential energy of 19.76 Joules per kilogram.

This is enough energy to run a 13 watt bulb for about 1.5 seconds if it was converted to electricity with ideal efficiency.

Alternate calculation:

2m = (1/2)at^2

4m = at^2
4m/9.88(m/s^2) = t^2

0.6363 ~ t

v = at = 6.2865m/s

Ek = (1/2)m*v^2 = 19.76 Joules.


So the approximation is close enough near the Earth.

Either way, something is rong with the picture, as there is nowhere near enough Gravitational potential in this device to produce any useful amount of lighting.

One tenth of one watt would only last about 3 minutes per kilogram lifted by 2 meters with ideal efficiency (impossible)...


so they made all that up, and faked the pictures and videos?
The CPC is expecting some serious warmth across the middle part of the U.S. over the 6-10 day time frame, and some even more serious cold across southern Alaska.

CPC
Quoting ncstorm:


right now I am excited but as I said, the next model run will be farther north or west..
If we get a nice 9" here then that'll be nice.I made a prediction last week that big storms happen about 40-49 days apart from each other.So that's three block buster storms per winter.Lets see if that'll come true.

Post 89 did you do that to mock me?.lol
Quoting Neapolitan:
The CPC is expecting some serious warmth across the middle part of the U.S. over the 6-10 day time frame, and some even more serious cold across southern Alaska.

CPC

Is that cool air over AK going to make its way to the Mid US? maybe about the 25th???? It would be a nice Christmas surprise!
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
Howdy Nea!

That sort of lessens the likelihood of a white Christmas in a lot of CONUS
IT IS TIME AGAIN FOR THE CHRISTMAS STATISTICS FOR BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON...AS COMPILED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON FORECAST OFFICE.



Excerpt:


FOR SNOW LOVERS...

SNOW FALLING ON CHRISTMAS DAY IS A RARITY IN WASHINGTON. OF THE PAST
128 YEARS SINCE 1884 WHEN SNOWFALL HAS BEEN MEASURED IN WASHINGTON...
ONLY 10 TIMES HAS THERE BEEN MEASURABLE SNOW THAT ACTUALLY FELL ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. THAT AVERAGES TO ABOUT ONCE EVERY 12-13 YEARS...OR ABOUT
8 PERCENT.
Seeing that chart is already appearing to me that this looks like 011-012 jr winter...All of Alaska keeps the cold and everywhere else is warm.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The CPC is expecting some serious warmth across the middle part of the U.S. over the 6-10 day time frame, and some even more serious cold across southern Alaska.

CPC





CPC seems to have been favoring this pattern now for quite a bit.

By the way, the darker shades up in Alaska aren't necessarily an indicator upon the degree of cold predicted, but rather the probability of whether or not cooler than average temperatures will prevail there with that span. The same applies to the darker shades of oranges and reds in the Heartland, indicating a high probability temperatures will range above average during that span.

Some might argue it's time for a pattern change. Me, on the other hand, is quite content the way it is.

;-]




At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Claudia (991 hPa) located at 26.4S 74.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
================
140 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 185 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 210 in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 32.3S 79.1E - Depression Extratropicale
48 HRS: 38.4S 89.4E - Depression Extratropicale
72 HRS: 40.9S 101.4E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
The effect of strong westerlies (30 knots of shear according to CIMMS at 1500z) is disrupting the convective mass associated with Claudia. However latest microwave imagery still show some strong low level vorticity. Latest available Dvorak analysis suggest winds in the 30-40 knots range. However and as indicated previously, the Dvorak method does not handle well this 'post-tropical' cyclone. So max wind is still set at 45 knots before new assessment of intensity with upcoming scatterometric data later tonight.

Note that the central pressure estimation is reviewed at a lower value due to a higher estimation of near gale force winds radii.

Claudia has begun its extra-tropical transition. AMSU cross section of brightness temp. Anomalies of latest NOAA pass of this afternoon show some upper level cold air intrusion ... indicating of a gradually more baroclinic environment for this system.

Within the next 24 hours, Claudia is expected to curve more clearly southeastward on the southwestern edge of the mid-level highs and ahead of a deep upper level trough located to the south of the Mascareignes archipelago. On this track, Claudia should accelerate progressively over the next few days.

System should completing its extratropical transition during next night or later tomorrow. Winds might remain strong until Friday in the eastern sector by gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. Saturday, the system should gradually fill up and track eastwards at a slower motion
Quoting indianrivguy:
Howdy Nea!

That sort of lessens the likelihood of a white Christmas in a lot of CONUS
Lessens it in a few places, perhaps, but since that map shows the probability of temperatures being above or below the average, it's entirely possible for a northern tier city to be smack in the middle of the deepest reds this time of year, yet still snow copiously....
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Evan (985 hPa) located at 14.0S 172.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 3 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
====================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
45 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
45 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Deep convection has increased in the past 12 hours with primary bands trying to wrap around. The cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to south. System lies in a low sheared environment and is being steered eastwards by a westerly deep layer mean flow. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on 1.0 wrap, yielding DT of 3.5. MET and PT agree. Final T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 13.8S 171.7W - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.8S 171.6W - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.5S 173.6W - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
NWS Miami using Weather Underground as a source....


LOCATION RAINFALL TOTAL SOURCE
------------------------------------------------- ---------------
JUPITER HEIGHTS 10.75" WEATHER UNDERGROUND

JUPITER
(PENNOCK LN & INDIANTOWN RD) 8.82" WEATHER UNDERGROUND

JUPITER
(CENTER ST & LOXAHATCHEE) 8.14" WEATHER UNDERGROUND



Link
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
IT IS TIME AGAIN FOR THE CHRISTMAS STATISTICS FOR BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON...AS COMPILED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON FORECAST OFFICE.



Excerpt:


FOR SNOW LOVERS...

SNOW FALLING ON CHRISTMAS DAY IS A RARITY IN WASHINGTON. OF THE PAST
128 YEARS SINCE 1884 WHEN SNOWFALL HAS BEEN MEASURED IN WASHINGTON...
ONLY 10 TIMES HAS THERE BEEN MEASURABLE SNOW THAT ACTUALLY FELL ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. THAT AVERAGES TO ABOUT ONCE EVERY 12-13 YEARS...OR ABOUT
8 PERCENT.
I don't think snow will be on the ground this year either.
102. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:





CPC seems to have been favoring this pattern now for quite a bit.

By the way, the darker shades up in Alaska aren't necessarily an indicator upon the degree of cold predicted, but rather the probability of whether or not cooler than average temperatures will prevail there with that span. The same applies to the darker shades of oranges and reds in the Heartland, indicating a high probability temperatures will range above average during that span.

Some might argue it's time for a pattern change. Me, on the other hand, is quite content the way it is.

;-]






How reliable are those Maps ? I dont follow them , tend only to follow the Atlantic weather .
Quoting VR46L:


How reliable are those Maps . I dont follow them , tend only to follow the Atlantic weather .




They are pretty darn good.

I will point out that it can be easy to incorrectly interpret them. The deeper shades of the color isn't implying it'll be very warm or cold in a particular region, but rather it's the probability the region will experience temperature deviations either warmer or cooler from their seasonally averages.

In other words, the CPC might put Kansas under a 80% chance of temperatures being higher than the average in a 6-10 day span, but that doesn't mean that temperatures there will be significantly above average there.

All and all, yes, they are pretty accurate, at least to get a general idea of a weather pattern setting up in place. Sorta like how looking beyond 10 days of the GFS can give us an idea of a weather pattern. But looking at the GFS 10 days out for a storm track and intensity is rather foolish, IMO.



104. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:




They are pretty darn good.

I will point out that it can be easy to incorrect interpret them. The deeper shades of the color isn't implying it'll be very warm or cold in a particular region, but rather it's the probability the region will experience temperatures deviations either warmer or cooler from the averages.

In other words, the CPC might put Kansas under a 80% of temperatures being higher than the average in a 6-10 day span, but that doesn't mean that temperatures there will be very above average there.

All and all, yes, they are pretty accurate, at least to get a general idea of a weather pattern setting up in place. Sorta like how looking beyond 10 days of the GFS can give us an idea of a weather pattern. But looking at the GFS 10 days out for a storm track and intensity is rather foolish, IMO.





Thanks . Agree on the GFS models upto ten days yes take real notice but after that its only showing possibilities..
I'm really hoping this thing pans out...





yep almost here..tonight might get interesting
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't think snow will be on the ground this year either.


I haven't given up hope yet! 2 storms that might bring snow between now and then, so we could still have a white christmas!
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't think snow will be on the ground this year either.


I haven't given up hope yet! 2 storms that might bring snow between now and then, so we could still have a white christmas!
It took me forever but now I finally notice the pride at the end.To much of it can be a bad thing.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
339 PM EST WED DEC 12 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-GMZ850-870-122145-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
339 PM EST WED DEC 12 2012

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF WATERS TOWARD THE PENINSULA. THESE STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE NATURE COAST WITH OTHER SCATTERED CONVECTION
AFFECTING INLAND AREAS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED.

$$
Quoting LargoFl:
Largo, One of these days I am going to make it up to Cedar Key.Looks like my kind of relaxing place.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
IT IS TIME AGAIN FOR THE CHRISTMAS STATISTICS FOR BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON...AS COMPILED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON FORECAST OFFICE.



Excerpt:


FOR SNOW LOVERS...

SNOW FALLING ON CHRISTMAS DAY IS A RARITY IN WASHINGTON. OF THE PAST
128 YEARS SINCE 1884 WHEN SNOWFALL HAS BEEN MEASURED IN WASHINGTON...
ONLY 10 TIMES HAS THERE BEEN MEASURABLE SNOW THAT ACTUALLY FELL ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. THAT AVERAGES TO ABOUT ONCE EVERY 12-13 YEARS...OR ABOUT
8 PERCENT.


Shh!!! It can happen... i hope :( I have practically the same chance as Baltimore bcause if it snows there is will most likely snow here
Globally, October was the 2nd warmest October on record, in a dataset going back to 1880.

Link
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Largo, One of these days I am going to make it up to Cedar Key.Looks like my kind of relaxing place.
yeah it would be a nice drive for you..went fishing up there long time ago..nice up there..
...RISK OF FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY...
...GREATEST RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED NORTHERN INTERIOR...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM NAPLES EAST TO
WEST PALM BEACH. HOWEVER, AREAS SOUTH OF THIS COULD STILL SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WIND:THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS RANGING
FROM 45 TO 55 MPH.

FLOODING: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
MOST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY WITH MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS. BUT THERE IS A MORE MODERATE
RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS THE JUPITER METRO AREA IN PALM BEACH COUNTY DUE
TO FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS TUESDAY EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
..looks like its going to be a long and noisy night here GT..probably alot of thunder boomers huh
Quoting bappit:
Gravity Powered Lightbulbs

Might not just be for the developing world if we have more disasters.
Cool stuff.. Thank you for posting it.
heavy overcast now
Quoting LargoFl:
..looks like its going to be a long and noisy night here GT..probably alot of thunder boomers huh
Yeah it's nice to get the rains for a change. Remember this is supposed to be our dry season here in FL.
Quoting TomballTXPride:




Stay positive Rita, for the both of us...





It could be Worse you could Live in Central or West Texas where Zero rain has fallen the last few months. It is 57 now with 20 percent humidity, lowest temp i saw this morning in my area was 17. Mid 20's at my house.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah it's nice to get the rains for a change. Remember this is supposed to be our dry season here in FL.
yes whatever we get now is great
... ...................Clearwater beach cam
Looks like some snow for the 4 corners region and the potential Nor'Easter shows up here pretty nicely. WxChaser97 will be happy as well.

Quoting LargoFl:
..looks like its going to be a long and noisy night here GT..probably alot of thunder boomers huh
Just up the road from me is Jupiter Fl, They got hammered last night
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Just up the road from me is Jupiter Fl, They got hammered last night
tonight should be the end of the bad stuff I hope
Super Typhoon Bopha making landfall..
Quoting hydrus:
Super Typhoon Bopha making landfall..


I didn't get to blog about it. Always wanted to do a Category 5. It's haunting me.
nasty line about to hit shore
watch your local warnings orlando area.......SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
412 PM EST WED DEC 12 2012

FLZ047-053-054-058-122200-
INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
412 PM EST WED DEC 12 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER NORTHERN OKEECHOBEE..
SOUTHERN OSCEOLA AND BREVARD...AND WESTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES

* UNTIL 500 PM EST.

AT 411 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER KISSIMMEE
PRAIRIE PRESERVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR YEEHAW JUNCTION...BLUE CYPRESS LAKE
AND WILL APPROACH THE PALM BAY AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2764 8068 2750 8114 2786 8113 2803 8070
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 235DEG 20KT 2762 8102

$$
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Looks like some snow for the 4 corners region and the potential Nor'Easter shows up here pretty nicely. WxChaser97 will be happy as well.


Except Michigan isn't in the Northeast and the only snow system is at the end of the image for me. However, looks like the pattern could be changing to a more winter time pattern. We will just have to wait until it happens.
.NOW...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONT THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST UP TO
25 TO 30 MPH TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNSET. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR THROUGH NORTHERN
OKEECHOBEE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES...WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE ALLOWED FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 45
MPH...SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
this cold front decrase the temperature in mexico,my country (78ºF to 46º in one day) :( and i´m sick... i hate cold
Quoting LargoFl:
watch your local warnings orlando area.......SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
412 PM EST WED DEC 12 2012

FLZ047-053-054-058-122200-
INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
412 PM EST WED DEC 12 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER NORTHERN OKEECHOBEE..
SOUTHERN OSCEOLA AND BREVARD...AND WESTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES

* UNTIL 500 PM EST.

AT 411 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER KISSIMMEE
PRAIRIE PRESERVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR YEEHAW JUNCTION...BLUE CYPRESS LAKE
AND WILL APPROACH THE PALM BAY AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2764 8068 2750 8114 2786 8113 2803 8070
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 235DEG 20KT 2762 8102

$$

wow Largo, when I left school to go to work, there was a developing squall line and huge mass of storms, I get to work, jump online again and there's........ nothing.

?!?
Quoting ces15hurricanes:
this cold front decrase the temperature in mexico,my country (78ºF to 46º in one day) :( and i´m sick... i hate cold
hi and yes its winter now
Well, as far as for the negative, the models blew the forecast completely, as the dry streak continues. I'll admit I blew it too. High moisture and lift from a solid shortwave seemed to me like a great rain event with widespread 1 to 2 inches. We have had similar setups many times before with similar results, however for some reason it did not materialize.


This is what I hate about the science of meteorology, but also what I love about it!

On another note, my last semester at St. Petersburg College is officially over, finished with straight A's even on physics and differential equations. If you're going to FSU this spring or you are already there, maybe I'll see you up there. I'm transferring there this upcoming spring from SPC, I'm quite excited!
Quoting thunderbug91:

wow Largo, when I left school to go to work, there was a developing squall line and huge mass of storms, I get to work, jump online again and there's........ nothing.

?!?
sure is a strange weather day..you get a warning..then nothing...you get no warning and it pours lol..
Quoting Jedkins01:
Well, as far as for the negative, the models blew the forecast completely, as the dry streak continues. I'll admit I blew it too. High moisture and lift from a solid shortwave seemed to me like a great rain event with widespread 1 to 2 inches. We have had similar setups many times before with similar results, however for some reason it did not materialize.


This is what I hate about the science of meteorology, but also what I love about it!

On another note, my semester is officially over, finished with straight A's even on physics and differential equations. If you're going to FSU this spring or you are already there, maybe I'll see you up there. I'm transferring there this upcoming spring from St. Petersburg College, I'm quite excited!
........good luck on your new post Jedkins
Quoting Jedkins01:
Well, as far as for the negative, the models blew the forecast completely, as the dry streak continues. I'll admit I blew it too. High moisture and lift from a solid shortwave seemed to me like a great rain event with widespread 1 to 2 inches. We have had similar setups many times before with similar results, however for some reason it did not materialize.


This is what I hate about the science of meteorology, but also what I love about it!

On another note, my semester is officially over, finished with straight A's even on physics and differential equations. If you're going to FSU this spring or you are already there, maybe I'll see you up there. I'm transferring there this upcoming spring from St. Petersburg College, I'm quite excited!

Congrats!!!! Are you going on to Linear Equations now?
Quoting LargoFl:
sure is a strange weather day..you get a warning..then nothing...you get no warning and it pours lol..

That's really odd.... and (I have to admit) a little disappointing. I was hoping for a lot of rain.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
339 PM EST WED DEC 12 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-GMZ850-870-122145-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
339 PM EST WED DEC 12 2012

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF WATERS TOWARD THE PENINSULA. THESE STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE NATURE COAST WITH OTHER SCATTERED CONVECTION
AFFECTING INLAND AREAS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED.

$$

05
Quoting LargoFl:
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
339 PM EST WED DEC 12 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-GMZ850-870-1 22145-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
339 PM EST WED DEC 12 2012

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF WATERS TOWARD THE PENINSULA. THESE STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE NATURE COAST WITH OTHER SCATTERED CONVECTION
AFFECTING INLAND AREAS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED.

$$

05

ah well, maybe we still can get some showers out of it....
That is one really puny squall line......
Quoting LargoFl:
........good luck on your new post Jedkins



Thank you! BTW, the recent RPM model from early this morning actually forecast today really well. It's usually very poor going against the model consensus, but it got it right this time.
Quoting yonzabam:
Globally, October was the 2nd warmest October on record, in a dataset going back to 1880.

Link


But how do you know 1879 wasn't even hotter? :)
Quoting Grothar:


But how do you know 1879 wasn't even hotter? :)

Gro! You're still alive! Haven't seen you on the blog in ages! How's it going on your side of the state?
"You Talk Too Much" Joe Jones..........1960
Well, it appears that this cold front that previously had a slight chance of severe weather as well as giving my area, Madeira Beach, a chance for some beneficial rain has been "much ado about nothing". Of course that is a much better outcome than the extreme opposite so always something to be thankful for.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The CPC is expecting some serious warmth across the middle part of the U.S. over the 6-10 day time frame, and some even more serious cold across southern Alaska.

CPC

Morning all

As the saying goes. If Alaska is freezing the lower 48 is mild. Looks like your going to have a mild winter going by that map, pretty much the same as last winter.
Not exactly strong consistency being shown by the GFS right now.

12z at 138 hours:



18z at 132:

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
"You Talk Too Much" Joe Jones..........1960


You worry me to death.....
Quoting thunderbug91:

Gro! You're still alive! Haven't seen you on the blog in ages! How's it going on your side of the state?


Hey, bug! Yes, I am still alive. It is very, very dry here. I've been traveling a bit and wasn't able to get on. You OK?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Morning all

As the saying goes. If Alaska is freezing the lower 48 is mild. Looks like your going to have a mild winter going by that map, pretty much the same as last winter.


Geez...I saw you typing on here this morning USA time when I was at work, and I'm still at work as it's nearing 4:30PM and now your waking up and back on. I'm in a time warp where time is too slow.
Admin, don't panic. I am only doing a test to see if the embed code works. I will delete the video.


Quoting Grothar:


But how do you know 1879 wasn't even hotter? :)


Donner Party - 1846 was COLD!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Not exactly strong consistency being shown by the GFS right now.

12z at 138 hours:



18z at 132:


Looks fine to me.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Donner Party - 1846 was COLD!


I'm not convinced aspirin really works either. After all reliable records only go back to 400 B.C.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Thank you! BTW, the recent RPM model from early this morning actually forecast today really well. It's usually very poor going against the model consensus, but it got it right this time.


Stick with the linear equations, Jed. They will keep you on the straight and narrow.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 12/2000 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 172.5W AT
121800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS IR/VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 3
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS
TRYING TO WRAP AROUND. THE CYCLONE LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT
REGION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND IS BEING STEERED EASTWARDS BY A WESTERLY DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.0 WRAP, YIELDING DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 13.8S 171.7W MOV ENE AT 04 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 13.8S 171.6W MOV E AT 01 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 14.0S 172.2W MOV WSW AT 04 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 14.5S 173.6W MOV WSW AT 07 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON EVAN WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 130200 UTC.











Longer loop here
Quoting Grothar:


I'm not convinced aspirin really works either. After all reliable records only go back to 400 B.C.


You almost had me on that one! B.C. took a powder. Aspirin is new It!
Evan appears very well organized:

Eye developing with Evan just off that island.

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You almost had me on that one! B.C. took a powder. Aspirin is new It!


It's difficult to trip you up on things. I hope you're not slipping Rookie.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Eye developing with Evan just off that island.



"That island"? How verbose.
Quoting Grothar:


It's difficult to trip you up on things. I hope you're not slipping Rookie.


You know me Grothar. I would have to get a grip to be slipping. :-)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Eye developing with Evan just off that island.



You ever heard of Samoa?
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, bug! Yes, I am still alive. It is very, very dry here. I've been traveling a bit and wasn't able to get on. You OK?

Doing good, was almost caught in the tornado the other night, but besides that, I'm ok! Just worn out from school... tomorrow's the last day though.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Eye developing with Evan just off that island.


That's Samoa and American Samoa.
They had a devastating quake and tsunami 3 years ago, killed more than 189 people.

Link
Quoting Grothar:


Stick with the linear equations, Jed. They will keep you on the straight and narrow.

really? Linear equations killed me this semester!!!
Quoting thunderbug91:

Doing good, was almost caught in the tornado the other night, but besides that, I'm ok! Just worn out from school... tomorrow's the last day though.


Glad you missed the tornado. They are not fun. I heard it was a mess there

I am lucky I have already learned everything and don't have to go to school anymore.
Quoting Grothar:


You ever heard of Samoa?


Our mere education system provided by those self-proclaimed "certified" teachers...
Quoting Grovysixer:


Our mere education system provided by those self-proclaimed "certified" teachers...


It's Ok. All those islands look pretty much alike. Most of them are surrounded by water, so it can be confusing.
Quoting Grothar:


You ever heard of Samoa?

For a tropical weather page, some people need to know there geography


Loop



Not good with southern hemisphere geography, sorry.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not good with southern hemisphere geography, sorry.



And I can't find the way out of my driveway.

It happens.



Quoting TomballTXPride:



And I can't find the way out of my driveway.

It happens.




That sounds pretty serious...
Quoting Grothar:


You ever heard of Samoa?



Is there any geography left?
I want SAMOA!
Quoting TomballTXPride:



And I can't find the way out of my driveway.

It happens.




LOL, you do have problems.
Quoting thunderbug91:

That sounds pretty serious...



Well, supposedly I found out from my six year old that my husband got me a GPS for Christmas. I figure I trust the six year old if that slips out of her mouth. haha. Sucks for me cuz now I won't be surprised, but at the same time I'm glowing cuz It'll help me out immensely!!

But I have mastered the driveway now. It ain't THAT bad. Just trying to provoke a chuckle. :)



Quoting TomballTXPride:



Well, supposedly I found out from my six year old that my husband got me a GPS for Christmas. I figure I trust the six year old if that slips out of her mouth. haha. Sucks for me cuz now I won't be surprised, but at the same time I'm glowing cuz It'll help me out immensely!!

But I have mastered the driveway now. It ain't THAT bad. Just trying to provoke a chuckle. :)




lol
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Is there any geography left?
I want SAMOA!


You've had enougha!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Is there any geography left?
I want SAMOA!

.... back to the drawing board
Quoting TomballTXPride:



And I can't find the way out of my driveway.

It happens.





Even with my GPS system enabled, It happens to me too.
Quoting Grovysixer:


Even with my GPS system enabled, It happens to me too.

oh, dear....
Quoting Grovysixer:


Even with my GPS system enabled, It happens to me too.

Glad I'm not your neighbour. TBH you shouldn't be driving.
"That island" is going to be getting hit pretty hard for a while. Evan's not going anywhere fast and will only strengthen as it meanders off the Samoan coast:

192. wxmod
This is what you get for millions of $ of weather modification; not much. Meanwhile, everyone else gets lung disease.

forecast for Fallon Nevada:

Wednesday
chance rain Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and a chance of rain, then snow showers and a chance of rain in the afternoon. High of 46F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%.
Wednesday Night
nt_snow Mostly cloudy with snow showers. Low of 28F. Winds from the NNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%.
193. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:



Well, supposedly I found out from my six year old that my husband got me a GPS for Christmas. I figure I trust the six year old if that slips out of her mouth. haha. Sucks for me cuz now I won't be surprised, but at the same time I'm glowing cuz It'll help me out immensely!!

But I have mastered the driveway now. It ain't THAT bad. Just trying to provoke a chuckle. :)





Your Husband was crazy telling your 6 year old, every one knows a 6 year cant hold a secret
Quoting AussieStorm:

Glad I'm not your neighbour. TBH you shouldn't be driving.


Well then, more Apfelstrudels for me.
Quoting VR46L:


Your Husband was crazy telling your 6 year old, every one knows a 6 year cant hold a secret

My dad's about to turn 40 and sometimes he can't hold a secret still.....
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
"That island" is going to be getting hit pretty hard for a while. Evan's not going anywhere fast and will only strengthen as it meanders off the Samoan coast:


TWC Australia just said the Samoa's could get up to 10ft storm surge and hurricane winds. Not good, not good at all.
197. VR46L
Quoting thunderbug91:

My dad's about to turn 40 and sometimes he can't hold a secret still.....
Quoting thunderbug91:

My dad's about to turn 40 and sometimes he can't hold a secret still.....


Do you not know women keep secrets better..
From us lot over on the Eastern side of the Atlantic I would like to say welcome and good to know you are on the team,to wunderground's newest featured blogger--Lee Grenci
I and my many associates I know will look forward with anticipation to reading any articles and reports you might toss in front of us on the forthcoming blogs.
Quoting Grovysixer:


Well then, more Apfelstrudels for me.

I don't eat food I can't pronounce .. lol

Quoting VR46L:


Do you not know women keep secrets better..

I am learning that....
well guys, im outta here, might be on after finals tomorrow! :) wish me luck, talk to you all later, take care!
202. VR46L
You 21? you still have alot to learn about us
203. VR46L
Quoting thunderbug91:
well guys, im outta here, might be on after finals tomorrow! :) wish me luck, talk to you all later, take care!


Good Luck !!
Quoting VR46L:


Do you not know women keep secrets better..


My step mother doesn't, bless her soul.
Quoting thunderbug91:

My dad's about to turn 40 and sometimes he can't hold a secret still.....


Don't worry. By the time he gets to be my age he will not remember what the secret was any way. But, to you, it will look like he is now great at keeping secrets. My kids tell me all of their secrets now knowing that they are safe with me. :-) Come to think of it, they may just be telling me the same secret every time?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
"That island" is going to be getting hit pretty hard for a while. Evan's not going anywhere fast and will only strengthen as it meanders off the Samoan coast:




it may not get all that strong with cold water upwelling it may in fac weak in if it stalls out for too long
'Pablo' death toll soars to 902, damage at P14.3-B

The death toll from Tropical Cyclone Pablo (Bopha) neared the 1,000 mark as it soared to 902 as of early Thursday, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council said.

In its 6 a.m. update, the NDRRMC also said 635 remained missing although it also noted 296 fishermen from six vessels have so far been rescued.

Of the 902 dead, 567 have been identified, even as 2,661 were injured and a total of 415 have been rescued so far, it added.

The NDRRMC said Pablo has affected 528,750 families or 5,474,313 people in 1,946 villages in 252 towns and 36 cities in 30 provinces.

Of these, 19,212 families or 79,885 people are in 63 evacuation centers.

As this developed, the NDRRMC said the Regional Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council and Office of Civil Defense in Region 11 established a regional response coordination center in Davao City.

The Department of Health has conducted cluster meetings with representatives from UNICEF, ADRA, Catholic Relief Services, World Vision, World Health Organization and other organizations for relief efforts.

The DOH Region 11 briefed response teams from other regions for deployment to Compostela, Monkayo and New Bataan in Compostela Valley.

It also conducted meetings with new partners from Australia, which committed to provide assistance in water quality monitoring.

Damage

Damage caused by Pablo was estimated at P14,303,051,878.05, including:
P4,575,011,300 in infrastructure,
P9,679,353,165.05 in agriculture, and
P48,687,413 in private properties.

Five provinces, 41 towns and four cities in Southern Luzon, Central Visayas, and Regions 10, 11 and Caraga have declared a state of calamity.

As of Thursday, 19 bridges and seven roads are still impassable while 35 areas are still experiencing power interruption.

At least 60,797 houses were destroyed while 88,090 were damaged.

'Pablo' is among the most destructive powerful typhoons that hit the country. It affected large swaths of Mindanao, Visayas and Northern Palawan and left a trail of death and destruction in its wake. —KG, GMA News
Quoting AussieStorm:


Liked it, and its message; thanks for the intro.
I just finished my Tropical Cyclone Report (TCR) for Tropical Storm Florence. Again, these versions are mere drafts; the real test will come soon enough. Just enjoy what I've put out for now.
North Korea yesterday: "WOO HOO WE GOT IT!!!"

North Korea Now : "GOD @#$!$ IT!!! WE STILL ARE LOSERS! "
Quoting KoritheMan:


My step mother doesn't, bless her soul.

those are just the secrets she's telling...
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Don't worry. By the time he gets to be my age he will not remember what the secret was any way. But, to you, it will look like he is now great at keeping secrets. My kids tell me all of their secrets now knowing that they are safe with me. :-) Come to think of it, they may just be telling me the same secret every time?


Thank you sir, I had a nice "I resemble that" laugh.
Quoting plutorising:

those are just the secrets she's telling...


Could be. :)

Brian Alonzo6:48 PM - Public
Space Station flying over tonight. Here is where to look:

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
North Korea yesterday: "WOO HOO WE GOT IT!!!"

North Korea Now : "GOD @#$!$ IT!!! WE STILL ARE LOSERS! "

I am tempted to make this as my new screen saver.


For all who are too lazy to look it up, lol. Samoa, where cyclone Evan is right now. ... Yaaawn, with that hello good night as well, Barb from sleepy Europe.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
North Korea yesterday: "WOO HOO WE GOT IT!!!"

North Korea Now : "GOD @#$!$ IT!!! WE STILL ARE LOSERS! "


That made me laugh more than it should have!
Quoting VaStormGuy:


That made me laugh more than it should have!


No one cares if you make fun of Kim Jong-un. Same vein as Hitler. :)
220. etxwx
Nile-Like River Spotted on Saturn Moon Titan
by SPACE.com Staff
Date: 12 December 2012

Excerpt: NASA's Cassini spacecraft has captured a crisp image of a long river cutting across Saturn's huge moon Titan. The hydrocarbon-filled river stretches more than 250 miles (400 kilometers) from its source to a large sea near frigid Titan's north pole. Cassini's radar image is the first high-resolution shot ever taken of such a vast river system on a world beyond Earth, researchers said, and scientists are comparing it to Earth's Nile River in Egypt.



More on this discovery here.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
732 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2012

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 12/10/12 TORNADO EVENT...

.EDGEWATER TORNADO...

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90-110 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.6 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 150 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0

Looked pretty wide for 150yds, maybe the cloud deck was just really low



_________________________________________________ ___



Tornado Damage on December 10th, 2012

Birmingham (Jefferson) EF-1 Tornado


Rating:
(Click for EF Scale)
EF-1
Estimated Maximum Wind:
90 mph
Injuries/Fatalities:
None
Damage Path Length:
1.05 miles
Maximum Path Width:
250 yards



Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #28
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
4:30 AM RET December 13 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Cyclone, Former Claudia (993 hPa) located at 27.5S 75.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 105 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 160 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 170 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 34.1S 81.2E - Depression Extratropicale
48 HRS: 39.0S 92.1E - Depression Extratropicale
72 HRS: 39.9S 102.4E - Se Dissipant

Additional Information
=====================
Current intensity is assessed with OSCAT pass at 1856 PM UTC that show uncontaminated winds at 40 knots in the northeastern quadrant with the fact that the overall pattern of ex-Claudia has not changed much since that time.

Ex-Claudia shows now a typical fully extratropical pattern. Phasis diagram at 1800 PM UTC made with AMSU data suggest that the system was by that time, in the shallow/ asymmetric warm core phasis. Given that and the current pattern on infrared imagery, the system is now classified as an extratropical system.

The system seems to have slow down a bit during the night. However global philosophy has not changed much: gradual speed up in a southeastwards track and then, Saturday, over the southern edge of the subtropical ridge, an eastwards motion at a slower rate.

Winds might remain strong until Friday in the eastern then northern sectors by gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures
Quoting etxwx:
Nile-Like River Spotted on Saturn Moon Titan
by SPACE.com Staff
Date: 12 December 2012

Excerpt: NASA's Cassini spacecraft has captured a crisp image of a long river cutting across Saturn's huge moon Titan. The hydrocarbon-filled river stretches more than 250 miles (400 kilometers) from its source to a large sea near frigid Titan's north pole. Cassini's radar image is the first high-resolution shot ever taken of such a vast river system on a world beyond Earth, researchers said, and scientists are comparing it to Earth's Nile River in Egypt.



More on this discovery here.


They were able to zoom in closer and it is more like The Nile than they originally thought when they spotted this
.
.
.
.
.
Link
The 12z Euro has one heck of an arctic outbreak for Florida by day 9!
225. etxwx
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


They were able to zoom in closer and it is more like The Nile than they originally thought when they spotted this
.
.
.
.
.
Link


I think I see Grothar on the deck...
:)
Quoting etxwx:


I think I see Grothar on the deck...
:)


See et. You post a great article and someone has to make a joke. :):)

I would never do such thing.
Quoting KoritheMan:


No one cares if you make fun of Kim Jong-un. Same vein as Hitler. :)


Well.. I could argue that Hitler was worse...

So far.
228. etxwx
Quoting Grothar:


See et. You post a great article and someone has to make a joke. :):)

I would never do such thing.


Of course you wouldn't, you are far too cosmopolitian.

And they didn't get your good side in that video...
;)
Quoting Grothar:


See et. You post a great article and someone has to make a joke. :):)

I would never do such thing.


ya might, but would you remember? Evenin' Gro!
Good evening, folks. How is everyone?
indianrivguy, your comment is remindful of pots and kettles
Quoting Floodman:
Good evening, folks. How is everyone?

Hey Floodman. How ya been mate!

If anyone wants to watch, the benefit concert for Sandy is on now, can watch here.

Quoting Floodman:
Good evening, folks. How is everyone?


Hey Flood, good to see you here buddy.
Quoting VaStormGuy:


Well.. I could argue that Hitler was worse...

So far.


262 million were killed by democide in the 20th century, Hitler was good for 21 million of it.
GerogiaStorm You Forgot to metion the part about keeping the satlite in space

North Koreas Satellite Is Out of Control: Why This Is Very Bad News

Link
Quoting Floodman:
indianrivguy, your comment is remindful of pots and kettles


yes, I resemble those remarks... evening Floodman!
Tropical Cyclone Evan:

Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
GerogiaStorm You Forgot to metion the part about keeping the satlite in space

North Korea%u2019s Satellite Is Out of Control: Why This Is Very Bad News

Link
doesnt the leader of north korea look like that plump korean Gangman person.
Landfall????







HURRICANE WARNING 025 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 13/0129 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0 SOUTH 171.5
WEST AT 130000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 14.0S 171.5W at 130000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT 6 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS
BY 140000.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 13.9S 170.9W AT 131200 UTC
AND NEAR 14.0S 171.2W AT 140000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 23.

_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 13/0211 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN 04F CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.0S 171.5W AT 130000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT
6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT PAST 24 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING
TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. CLOUD FILLED EYE DISCERNIBLE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY.
THE CYCLONE LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW DEVELOPING.
SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS BEING STEERED
EASTWARDS BY A WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.1 WRAP, YIELDING DT OF 4.0, MET
AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 13.9S 170.9W MOV E AT 03 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 14.0S 171.2W MOV WSW AT 03 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 14.4S 172.2W MOV WSW AT 03 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 14.9S 173.7W MOV WSW AT 05 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 140800 UTC.

_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE [1001HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.5S 160.6W
AT 122100UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS
NOT IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE TO HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LLCC EXPOSED
WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM WITH NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Tonga ON TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 12/2315 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT
.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUATOPUTAPU AND
NIUAFO'OU.



TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE [985HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14
DECIMAL 1 SOUTH 171 DECIMAL 8 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NIUATOPUTAPU OR ABOUT 240 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF NIUAFO'OU AT 122100
UTC. POSITION FAIR. EVAN IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING EAST AT 09 KNOTS
BUT EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IS ESTIMATED TO ABOUT 50 KNOTS WITH
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS.

ON THIS TRACK TC EVAN MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
NIUATOPUTAPU AND NIUAFO'OU IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR NIUATOPUTAPU AND NIUAFO'OU AND GROUP:
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST SWELLS.


FOR THE REST OF TONGA:
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS. BRIEF SHOWERS. ROUGH SEAS.
MODERATE SOUTHEAST SWELLS.





THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
1305OO UTC OR EARLIER.
PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.
Quoting Floodman:
Good evening, folks. How is everyone?
Wer ya been, we had a storm or two since your last post..:)
Not trying to start anything here; but Former Member of the National Science Board Jim Powell made a blog post along with a pie chart that should be metioned on the blog

Why Climate Deniers Have No Scientific Credibility - In One Pie Chart

Link

My elderly neighbour just drove through his garage door. His car is now in his backyard covered in bricks, He's fine, shaken but fine. Scared the crap outa me
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
Not trying to start anything here; but Former Member of the National Science Board Jim Powell made a blog post along with a pie chart that should be metioned on the blog

Why Climate Deniers Have No Scientific Credibility - In One Pie Chart

Link


The Pie-chart
246. wxmod
BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

12-13-2012 07:00; PM2.5; 259.0; 309; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)


4h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

12-13-2012 06:00; PM2.5; 258.0; 308; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)
Quoting AussieStorm:

The Pie-chart


Thanks for that; figured if I post the full size picture I would break the blog
Doug might not like this news.

"Skiers, snowboarders and ski resort operators need to take their heads out of the snow long enough to notice that their sport is in danger of melting away, according to the authors of a new tourism report released last week.The study, which predicts U.S. winter tourism is in for tough times if climate change goes unchecked, is aimed mostly at the tourist industry. It details an estimated $1 billion loss over the last decade due to diminished snow-fall patterns and the resulting changes in the outdoor habits of Americans."
Quoting AussieStorm:

The Pie-chart




This one?
Quoting VaStormGuy:




This one?

Yep.

TC Evan over Samoa.

Loop

strange core. Not round
253. wxmod
China air quality is hazardous and widespread today. This is a MODIS satellite photo. Someday soon, China will be a dead zone.


Quoting bappit:
Doug might not like this news.

"Skiers, snowboarders and ski resort operators need to take their heads out of the snow long enough to notice that their sport is in danger of melting away, according to the authors of a new tourism report released last week.The study, which predicts U.S. winter tourism is in for tough times if climate change goes unchecked, is aimed mostly at the tourist industry. It details an estimated $1 billion loss over the last decade due to diminished snow-fall patterns and the resulting changes in the outdoor habits of Americans."


A report from the National Resources Defense Council, I am sure there is no bias there.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Evan is unusually asymmetric, shown on microwave imagery:

Quoting AussieStorm:

Yep.

TC Evan over Samoa.

Loop

strange core. Not round


nearly sitting right over the island...very bad/dangerous weather there
Evan:

I am going to go outside. I am going to go outside and scream at the atmosphere for not being a few degrees colder.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I am going to go outside. I am going to go outside and scream at the atmosphere for not being a few degrees colder.



Can I join in?
The Who!

Go benefit concert! Go!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I am going to go outside. I am going to go outside and scream at the atmosphere for not being a few degrees colder.



I just chuck ice cubes out the window until the temp drops...it has worked before.
Quoting VaStormGuy:


Can I join in?


Party at cody's house! Come on WU, let's go.

Um, where do you live again Cody?
Quoting VaStormGuy:


Can I join in?

I don't care.

Quoting Astrometeor:


Party at cody's house! Come on WU, let's go.

Um, where do you live again Cody?

I live...in a house.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I am going to go outside. I am going to go outside and scream at the atmosphere for not being a few degrees colder.


I am joining you in this. Just I want some moisture, not lower temps. It is cold enough to snow(33F) but no precip.
PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA...NWS

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR AMERICAN SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
357 PM SST WED DEC 12 2012

ASZ001>003-131515-
TUTUILA-AUNUU-MANUA-SWAINS-
357 PM SST WED DEC 12 2012

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...A HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT...

.TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 45 TO 60
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH INCREASING TO 60 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
85 MPH OVERNIGHT.
.THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 75 TO 95 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH
INCREASING TO 85 TO 110 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 130 MPH BEFORE NOON.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 75 TO 85 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 95 MPH.
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AT TIMES.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS NEAR 80. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 60 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH.
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO
40 MPH.
.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED. HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.



yikes!!!!
Quoting nymore:


A report from the National Resources Defense Council, I am sure there is no bias there.


Yep, guaranteed to irritate the Koch brothers and yourself.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't care.


I live...in a house.


This is his house:

The Who is playing on the Hurricane Sandy Relief Concert right now. My cousin, Johnny "Rabbit" Bundrick plays the keyboards for The Who. They actually have two keyboard players tonight, but neither of them are my cousin. I will have to ask him why he was not there tonight. ..... He did play the keyboards when The Who played the half time show at the Super Bowl.
Quoting VaStormGuy:


This is his house:


When you think about it it isn't a bad set-up actually. You have, what looks like, waterfront property, a pool/pond, a small garden, and you have every room split up so there is even more privacy.

Quoting wxchaser97:

Just I want some moister
Some what?
Quoting bappit:

Yep, guaranteed to irritate the Koch brothers and yourself.
Yea I am irritated over some non reviewed study.

Here is a reviewed study that you may not like only 1 station passed all the tests.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L23705, 5 PP., 2012
doi:10.1029/2012GL054244

On the statistical significance of surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region
Key Points

I am using a novel method to test the significance of temperature trends

In the Eurasian Arctic region only 17 stations show a significant trend

I find that in Siberia the trend signal has not yet emerged

C. Franzke

British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, UK

This study investigates the statistical significance of the trends of station temperature time series from the European Climate Assessment & Data archive poleward of 60N.
The trends are identified by different methods and their significance is assessed by three different null models of climate noise.

All stations show a warming trend but only 17 out of the 109 considered stations have trends which cannot be explained as arising from intrinsic climate fluctuations when tested against any of the three null models.

Out of those 17, only one station exhibits a warming trend which is significant against all three null models. The stations with significant warming trends are located mainly in Scandinavia and Iceland.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Some what?

I hate spell check -__-
Fixed.
Quoting nymore:
Yea I am irritated over some non reviewed study.

Here is a reviewed study that you may not like only 1 station passed all the tests.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L23705, 5 PP., 2012
doi:10.1029/2012GL054244

On the statistical significance of surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region
Key Points

I am using a novel method to test the significance of temperature trends
In the Eurasian Arctic region only 17 stations show a significant trend
I find that in Siberia the trend signal has not yet emerged

C. Franzke

British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, UK

This study investigates the statistical significance of the trends of station temperature time series from the European Climate Assessment & Data archive poleward of 60°N. The trends are identified by different methods and their significance is assessed by three different null models of climate noise. All stations show a warming trend but only 17 out of the 109 considered stations have trends which cannot be explained as arising from intrinsic climate fluctuations when tested against any of the three null models. Out of those 17, only one station exhibits a warming trend which is significant against all three null models. The stations with significant warming trends are located mainly in Scandinavia and Iceland.

The guy who wrote this study sounds like a stray data point. How did you get hold of this?
Quoting bappit:

The guy who wrote this study sounds like a stray data point. How did you get hold of this?
Scientific journal not agenda driven organizations like your study

Anyway it is from GRL it says so at the top of the study

You should read the new study on drought not getting any worse
Quoting nymore:
Scientific journal not agenda driven organizations like your study

Anyway it is from GRL it says so at the top of the study

You should read the new study on drought not getting any worse

I just ran across a story on Yahoo. You find these obscure articles on your own?
Quoting Astrometeor:
The Who!

Go benefit concert! Go!

How good is the concert. I'm rocking out here. WHOOOOOO are you o O o O
Quoting VaStormGuy:


This is his house:


His house could also look like this:

Jk

To make this weather related...
My 7-day forecast gives me hope for snow and for lessening any drought. This weekend looks to be pretty wet which would help coming off a dry November. Then next week snow showers are included which is a good change. I'll also try to get at least 1 TCR done this weekend. I have been so busy it has been impossible to really work on them.
Quoting AussieStorm:

How good is the concert. I'm rocking out here. WHOOOOOO are you o O o O


Concert is amazing. And I don't live up there, I'm down in the south, but this is a great, and well done concert so far, and it is even better how many great artists have come together. Even from different generations and different venues of music, and the way the audience receives them (I'm listening over the radio), is truly spectacular.

That being said, I wish I could donate, since I would have donated several times over.
Quoting bappit:

I just ran across a story on Yahoo. You find these obscure articles on your own?


GRL is not exactly obscure.
Issac, you could say Cody is able to think outside of the box.

err, sometimes.
Quoting Astrometeor:
Issac, you could say Cody is able to think outside of the box.

err, sometimes.

Astro, you are about the 1,000,000th person to spell my name wrong. It is Isaac, not Issac. Not to be mean, it just bugs me when people spell my name wrong.

It takes thinking outside of the box to a whole new level with him.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Astro, you are about the 1,000,000th person to spell my name wrong. It is Isaac, not Issac. Not to be mean, it just bugs me when people spell my name wrong.
Try being a grammar nazi.
Quoting AussieStorm:

How good is the concert. I'm rocking out here. WHOOOOOO are you o O o O
Excellent concert so far. Impressed with how well The Who, Clapton and " The Boss " are doin after all these years.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Astro, you are about the 1,000,000th person to spell my name wrong. It is Isaac, not Issac. Not to be mean, it just bugs me when people spell my name wrong.

It takes thinking outside of the box to a whole new level with him.
Not the only one I hate when people call me Allen instead of Allan :`(
Quoting allancalderini:
Not the only one I hate when people call me Allen instead of Allan :`(


Hurricane Allan.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Try being a grammar nazi.

I am one...
But seriously, it has been misspelled so many times at so many places.
Quoting nymore:


GRL is not exactly obscure.

You read GRL regularly?
Quoting wxchaser97:

I am one...
But seriously, it has been miss spelled so many times at so many places.


Misspelled is one word.
290. BtnTx
Quoting hydrus:
Excellent concert so far. Impressed with how well The Who, Clapton and " The Boss " are doin after all these years.
The Who completely blew me away as they played my favorites as well as Pink Floyd! I have already pre-purchased the sound track on iTunes!
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hurricane Allan.
its Allen. I am really thinking of changing my name.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Misspelled is one word.

Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

Like you haven't made any spelling mistakes.
Quoting allancalderini:
its Allen. I am really thinking of changing my name.


It's not if I say it's not.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's not if I say it's not.

Whatever Kori says goes eh?

Goodnight everyone.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's not if I say it's not.
*roll eyes*
Quoting KoritheMan:


Misspelled is one word.


This coming from the guy who uses "it's" when using it in the context of possession.

;)

JTWC is thinking Evan will be a category 4 by Friday:
Quoting bappit:

You read GRL regularly?
Actually found it a couple of years ago while looking into a study showing deep warm water jets along the equator west of the African coast
Quoting thunderbug91:

really? Linear equations killed me this semester!!!


Linear equations will kill you. Non-linear equations will kill you, resurrect you, torture, and kill you again in very ingenious ways. XD
Quoting BtnTx:
The Who completely blew me away as they played my favorites as well as Pink Floyd! I have already pre-purchased the sound track on iTunes!
I forgot to mention Floyd..They were fabulous and one of my favorites.
Tropical Cyclone Evan continues to bring heavy rains and strong winds to Samoa and would continue to affect that region in the next couple of days, due to its slow movement. Currently, there are no casualties reported, but some damage was already reported.

With favorable environmental conditions, the cyclone is expected to further strengthen during the next few days, possibly reaching Category 4 intensity. It is forecast to meander around Samoa before moving towards west-southwest. Evan would threaten Fiji by the coming weekend; however, it is expected to weaken by the time it reaches there.

Quoting Civicane49:
Tropical Cyclone Evan continues to bring heavy rains and strong winds to Samoa and would continue to affect that region in the next couple of days, due to its slow movement. Currently, there are no casualties reported, but some damage was already reported.

With favorable environmental conditions, the cyclone is expected to further strengthen during the next few days, possibly reaching Category 4 intensity. It is forecast to meander around Samoa before moving towards west-southwest. Evan would threaten Fiji by the coming weekend; however, it is expected to weaken by the time it reaches there.



Im pretty sure 90 mph are somewhat destructive...

FACT... you won't be able to take 90 mph winds!
G'evening all, late 12-12-12 flyby!

Gorgeous chilly December night in SE LA, under clear skies, 37F with frost forming...
Concert is awesome!
But also was outside enjoying the view - Geminid meteors to peak tomorrow night, but in around a 10 min period before 11 PM, quickly saw 5, with another 4 faint "maybes" in the peripheral realm of possibility.
Thought I'd mention, might be worth a gander if inclined... ;)

Back outside to test if it was just dumb luck, lol.
Later!

EDIT / ADD 11:35PM:
Okay, just saw another as counted to 78 secs... Best view I'm having is looking up, facing west... meteors all traveling generally E-W (SE-NW to ENE-WSW)...

Quoting Xyrus2000:


Linear equations will kill you. Non-linear equations will kill you, resurrect you, torture, and kill you again in very ingenious ways. XD


that's linear...wait for parabolas, sice, cosine, tangents etc..you are just smelling the honey
I find it interesting that the Tallahassee NWS weather discussion this evening mentions that parts of the area experienced graupel and small hail this afternoon as the shortwave passed through. Especially considering temperatures were 48F-54F during this time at the reporting stations I checked and none of these officially reported any frozen precipitation in the hourly observations.

Pretty fascinating as this frozen precipitation was clearly caused by freezing temperatures relatively near the surface, rather than processes which create thunderstorm-related hail (which can and usually does occur when surface temps are fairly warm).

So, my point is-frozen precipitation is fairly uncommon and noteworthy anywhere in Florida (not that rare in the FL Panhandle though). I feel that with the ever-increasing population, present and observing weather in more areas, localized events such as this which have tended to be considered "rare", will be discovered to not be that rare.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Im pretty sure 90 mph are somewhat destructive...

FACT... you won't be able to take 90 mph winds!


Really? Then why did I take it head on during Gustav? Hmm?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Really? Then why did I take them head on during Gustav? Hmm?


really??

You went out to the street to say hi
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


really??

You went out to the street to say hi


Irrelevant. You said there was no physical way a person could take 90 mph winds. Doesn't my claim contradict that?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Irrelevant. You said there was no physical way a person could take 90 mph winds. Doesn't my claim contradict that?


yes I did. even 70 mph can knock down people
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes I did. even 70 mph can knock down people


Yet 20 mph above that didn't knock me down. Maybe I'm just too sexy?

btw, the surface observations for Baton Rouge do actually show a 91 mph gust on September 1, and since I live near there...
Quoting bappit:

The guy who wrote this study sounds like a stray data point. How did you get hold of this?


What nymore isn't telling you, and would absolutely hate for you to do, is actually read the whole thing because it doesn't say nearly what he wants it to say. The link to the full thing is here: Link.

Also, this is examining surface station data over land ONLY. It does not include satellite measurements, SST's, or any other data. You can jump down to the summary section if you want to skip most of the gory details.
HURRICANE WARNING 025 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 13/0129 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP


TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0 SOUTH 171.5
WEST AT 130000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 14.0S 171.5W at 130000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT 6 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS
BY 140000.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 13.9S 170.9W AT 131200 UTC
AND NEAR 14.0S 171.2W AT 140000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone EVAN Category 2


TXPS26 KNES 130024
TCSWSP

A. 04P (EVAN)

B. 12/2330Z

C. 14.1S

D. 171.5W

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH DT=4.5 BASED
ON 13/10 WHITE BANDING. MET=4.0 AND PAT=4.5. FT IS BASED ON RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

12/2107Z 14.2S 171.7W AMSU


...SWANSON

JTWC has Evan at 65.0kts
Nadi has Evan at 69.8kts

Forecast 24hr Rainfall
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yet 20 mph above that didn't knock me down. Maybe I'm just too sexy?

btw, the surface observations for Baton Rouge do actually show a 91 mph gust on September 1, and since I live near there...


Yes, but were standing in an open field with no obstructions? Were you on a hill or in a local depression?

Sorry but 90 mph sustained is really pushing it when it comes to remaining standing. At that wind speed even leaning into the wind creates enough lift over the body to pick the average sized person up off the ground. Not to mention the fact that someone should get an honorable mention in the Darwin Awards for being outside in winds like that.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yet 20 mph above that didn't knock me down. Maybe I'm just too sexy?

btw, the surface observations for Baton Rouge do actually show a 91 mph gust on September 1, and since I live near there...


anyway... sexy?????
you guys, I just checked the forecast for Pago Pago in NWS site...bad stuff
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Yes, but were standing in an open field with no obstructions? Were you on a hill or in a local depression?

Sorry but 90 mph sustained is really pushing it when it comes to remaining standing. At that wind speed even leaning into the wind creates enough lift over the body to pick the average sized person up off the ground. Not to mention the fact that someone should get an honorable mention in the Darwin Awards for being outside in winds like that.


thank you very much... plus1000000000!!!

someone knows what Im talking about
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Yes, but were standing in an open field with no obstructions? Were you on a hill or in a local depression?

Sorry but 90 mph sustained is really pushing it when it comes to remaining standing. At that wind speed even leaning into the wind creates enough lift over the body to pick the average sized person up off the ground. Not to mention the fact that someone should get an honorable mention in the Darwin Awards for being outside in winds like that.


I didn't say they were sustained. Hell, the very post you quoted specifically mentioned gusts.

Seriously though, I know how ****ed I'd be if I were in a more open area. I was standing in my dad's protected street during Gustav and Isaac.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I didn't say they were sustained. Hell, the very post you quoted specifically mentioned gusts.

Seriously though, I know how ****ed I'd be if I were in a more open area. I was standing in my dad's protected street during Gustav and Isaac.


that does not prove my fact wrong...you lost
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
10:30 AM RET December 13 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Cyclone, Former Claudia (995 hPa) located at 28.6S 76.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 175 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 215 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 31.4S 79.2E - Depression Extratropicale
48 HRS: 34.3S 83.4E - Depression Extratropicale
72 HRS: 38.5S 94.4E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
Last OSCAT pass at 1856 PM UTC shows a very asymmetrical winds, with the strongest winds far from the center in the eastern semi-circle, due to the gradient with the high pressures in the east.

Global philosophy remains the same: gradual speed up in a southeastwards track and then, Saturday, over the southern edge of the subtropical ridge, an eastwards motion at a slower rate.

Winds might remain strong until Friday in the eastern then northern sectors by gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures.

Last warning about this system, unless re-intensification, it will be closely monitored until final dissipation into FQIO21 FMEE warning.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY THREE (04F)
18:00 PM FST December 13 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUATOPUTAPU AND NIUAFO'OU IN TONGA

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (975 hPa) located at 14.0S 171.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 3 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
35 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Deep convection persistent past 12 hours. Cyclone intensifying over the last 12 hours. EVAN lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the south. System lies in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center LG surround yielding DT=4.5, MET=4.0, PT=4.5. Final T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.0S 171.1W - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 14.1S 171.7W - 75 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.9S 174.9W - 85 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
That's a goofy argument you guys are having.

Mornin' Doug!

Evening Aussie!
Quoting Astrometeor:


Concert is amazing. And I don't live up there, I'm down in the south, but this is a great, and well done concert so far, and it is even better how many great artists have come together. Even from different generations and different venues of music, and the way the audience receives them (I'm listening over the radio), is truly spectacular.

That being said, I wish I could donate, since I would have donated several times over.
wow that 121212 concert was simply AWESOME..i grew up there and the scenes of the flooding and destruction and the misery real hit home for me..living in florida now we take these hurricanes as they come each year but..up there they arent used to that..geez..awesome concert last night for sure...
Good Morning folks!..rain is gone i guess,have a great day...
looks like the whole gulf coast is dry today...
Morning, everyone, evening Aussie. This should be our last cold morning again for a little bit. Warms back up into the 50s tomorrow morning.
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' Doug!

Evening Aussie!


Back at cha!
Quoting Xyrus2000:


What nymore isn't telling you, and would absolutely hate for you to do, is actually read the whole thing because it doesn't say nearly what he wants it to say. The link to the full thing is here: Link.

Also, this is examining surface station data over land ONLY. It does not include satellite measurements, SST's, or any other data. You can jump down to the summary section if you want to skip most of the gory details.


You are exactly right. I don't want anyone to read the article. That is why I posted where to find it.

Remember folks if you see a study or data based on surface station data over land it is worthless.
Good morning, afternoon or evening as the case may be.
Here in Fort Myers we finally received some much needed rain. My three day total came to 2.25 inches.
Oh happy days
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Morning, everyone, evening Aussie. This should be our last cold morning again for a little bit. Warms back up into the 50s tomorrow morning.

Mornin'

Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' Doug!

Evening Aussie!


Mornin' Mate

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY THREE (04F)
18:00 PM FST December 13 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUATOPUTAPU AND NIUAFO'OU IN TONGA

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (975 hPa) located at 14.0S 171.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 3 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
35 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Deep convection persistent past 12 hours. Cyclone intensifying over the last 12 hours. EVAN lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the south. System lies in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center LG surround yielding DT=4.5, MET=4.0, PT=4.5. Final T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.0S 171.1W - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 14.1S 171.7W - 75 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.9S 174.9W - 85 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)


A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUATOPUTAPU AND NIUAFO'OU IN TONGA
Can anyone explain why Tonga is under a TC alert. Tonga is 560 miles SW of Samoa and TC Evan is going to turn back west and head towards Fiji.


Tonga is the lower part of the group of Islands SW of TC Evan's current location.
Quoting nymore:


You are exactly right. I don't want anyone to read the article. That is why I posted where to find it.

Remember folks if you see a study or data based on surface station data over land it is worthless.




Just another way for some to divert attention because they know deep down they can't refute the material within.

This happens in Rood's blog all the time.

Another technique.

Another tactic.

Move on.

Not worth it.

Morning, nymore.

Morning, everyone.

Evening, Aussie.





Quoting aislinnpaps:
Morning, everyone, evening Aussie. This should be our last cold morning again for a little bit. Warms back up into the 50s tomorrow morning.



Morning, aislin.

Some cool crisp mornings here in SE TX. You're in LA, right? I'm assuming much of the same thing...



Rain coming!:)
I am so glad I am not in Samoa right now. Reports of 2 people killed so far Link

TC Evan is just sitting over Samoa continually pounding them with 65kt winds and 80kt gusts also driving rains.





Hello Jeff,

Thanks for the warm welcome and the opportunity to share my thoughts on weather and atmospheric science at Weather Underground. Everybody, including readers, have been so generous. I am very grateful.
Mornin Tomball and all

Here is a video update on Evan

">

Also some live video from the island

">
A couple of Radio reports from Western Samoa and American Samoa.

Western Samoa

American Samoa
Terrible situation for Samoa....local forecast discussion


COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR AMERICAN SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
948 PM SST WED DEC 12 2012

AMERICAN SAMOA COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 40 NAUTICAL MILES INCLUDING
THE FAGATELE BAY NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY

PSZ150>152-132115-
TUTUILA-AUNUU-MANUA-SWAINS-
948 PM SST WED DEC 12 2012

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT INCREASING
TO 50 TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT OVERNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 18
TO 20 FT. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.THURSDAY...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 TO 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT INCREASING
TO 75 TO 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT BEFORE NOON. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT.

HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 TO 75 KT. SEAS 20 TO 22 FT.
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS 50 TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO
70 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 55 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
STORM:CON - Winter Impact Index



Kinda like TOR:CON.

Got it, Cody.



Looks like Evan is beginning to form a very small eye as visible by the warming cloud tops at the center of his CDO.

Welcome aboard Lee.

Have fun.

Two thoughts for today.

"I would feel more optimistic about a bright future for man if he spent less time proving that he can outwit Nature and more time tasting her sweetness and respecting her seniority." - E.B. White

"We may get to the point where the only way of saving the world will be for industrial civilization to collapse." - Maurice Strong

Creating Clouds in the Lab To Better Understand Climate

Scientists are conducting a lab experiment to help solve a key riddle: the role of clouds in climate change. In an interview with Yale Environment 360, research leader Jasper Kirkby discusses the mysteries of clouds and why it%u2019s important to know if clouds are contributing to global warming.

----------------------------------
Credit: Yale Environment 360 is a publication of the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies.
Quoting FtMyersgal:
Good morning, afternoon or evening as the case may be.
Here in Fort Myers we finally received some much needed rain. My three day total came to 2.25 inches.
Oh happy days
good morning ft meyers!..your lucky i didnt get a drop yesterday or last night and the air is dry here now so I guess no more rain around here for awhile..have a great day
Quoting SteveDa1:
Creating Clouds in the Lab To Better Understand Climate

Scientists are conducting a lab experiment to help solve a key riddle: the role of clouds in climate change. In an interview with Yale Environment 360, research leader Jasper Kirkby discusses the mysteries of clouds and why it’s important to know if clouds are contributing to global warming.

----------------------------------
Credit: Yale Environment 360 is a publication of the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies.


Important work. The error bars on the role of clouds on climate change are huge. Not of the magnitude of CO2's effect, but huge nonetheless. It'd be great to see it pinned down a bit.
after that 121212 concert last night im Comfortably Numb lol...the who, the stones,and so many others..all to benefit the storm relief agencies where sandy devastated the northeast..had tears in my eyes seeing the massive destruction..places i used to go to as a youngster..gone..washed away..whole neighborhoods..geez..those folks up there just arent used to the sheer size and power of a storm like that..we along the gulf coastline know how to prepare..they dont, most didnt evacuate..now homeless..ALOT still without power in that cold weather up there..yeah tears in my eyes last night and im so glad..the rock stars came out to help..that concert was viewed all over the world..since the USA always helps others in need..now..the USA needs help and i sure hope..the world responded last night....
Hi guys...I like that storm:con thing
.NOW...

A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND WAS LOCATED
SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN A SLOW CLEARING TREND NORTH TO SOUTH. A
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
FLORIDA AND CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY WILL RESULT IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

&&
The weather is boring here.It is currently in the upper 30's with lots of sunshine.I'm talking about the sunshine that'll blind you and send you off the side of the road.
A Hazardous weather outlook is in effect from Maryland all they way up to Massachusetts for the potential nor'easter...

Who has some model runs about this
Quoting washingtonian115:
The weather is boring here.It is currently in the upper 30's with lots of sunshine.I'm talking about the sunshine that'll blind you and send you off the side of the road.





Yeah.

You think you're blind now.

Wait until you get some snow cover to amplify that reflectivity.



Temp bottomed out last night around 2:30AM where I'm at on mainland Galveston county, a coastal county. Wind shifted to SE overnight which drove the temperature up some 8 degrees from 2:30AM to 7AM. Don't think it happens well inland for inland counties like it does along the coast.

Was dead calm last night and was perfect for dew/frost to form but apparently the winds came up just enough to dry out whatever dew/frost that had formed or was forming and was absolutely dry on surfaces this AM with a light breeze out of the SE. Seen these situations plenty of times before just like this. High pressure shifts and return flow warms us up overnight.




That's the calm before the storm, Rita.

Our rain is coming...

Someday. LOL





Quoting washingtonian115:
The weather is boring here.It is currently in the upper 30's with lots of sunshine.I'm talking about the sunshine that'll blind you and send you off the side of the road.


You could have had 18 degrees with all that sun. It's cold, but at least we have no wind. I'll keep wishing for your snow to hit DC.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
A Hazardous weather outlook is in effect from Maryland all they way up to Massachusetts for the potential nor'easter...

Who has some model runs about this


Will Washi get her snow from this???
Well while 12/12/12 was a strange date their was something that did go wrong.Some people's power in Maryland went off when a transformer had blown.Lol but I don't think it had something to do with the conspiracy theory date.They sure did wake up in the cold this morning though.
Quoting TomballTXPride:




That's the calm before the storm, Rita.

Our rain is coming...

Someday. LOL







Since your inland, you probably never experienced these situations have you, where the temp rises overnight, because of the high pressure shifting and SE winds pick up
Quoting RitaEvac:


Since your inland, you probably never experienced these situations have you, where the temp rises overnight, because of the high pressure shifting and SE winds pick up




Not as much as you.

In high school, used to stay with friends some times.

I remember those nights you are describing....




Quoting goosegirl1:


You could have had 18 degrees with all that sun. It's cold, but at least we have no wind. I'll keep wishing for your snow to hit DC.
Thanks to that high pressure system over head brining that canadian air down.I'm glad they let us borrow some of the chill as we've been unseasonably mild/warm here.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
A Hazardous weather outlook is in effect from Maryland all they way up to Massachusetts for the potential nor'easter...

Who has some model runs about this
where did you see that warning?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
A Hazardous weather outlook is in effect from Maryland all they way up to Massachusetts for the potential nor'easter...

Who has some model runs about this
Ryan Maue

@RyanMaue
ECMWF 00z 7-day forecast for Nor'easter showed 973 mb low off of New England, bent-back front extends over Boston. https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/2791368 37560303616/photo/1
only warnings i could find for up there was for offshore gales.............SYNOPSIS FOR MID ATLC WATERS...A DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER 140
NM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE S WATERS THIS
MORNING...THEN PASS E OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE PULLING A
COLD FRONT SE OF THE WATERS. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NW LATE TODAY...MOVE SE ACROSS THE N PORTION FRI AND
FRI NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SE ACROSS THE NRN WATERS
SAT NIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS SUN. A WEAK LOW
PRES CENTER MOVES E ALONG THE FRONT SUN NIGHT. STRONGER LOW PRES
WILL THEN MOVE NE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST LATE MON.
$$
Quoting AussieStorm:
HURRICANE WARNING 025 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 13/0129 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP


TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0 SOUTH 171.5
WEST AT 130000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 14.0S 171.5W at 130000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT 6 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS
BY 140000.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 13.9S 170.9W AT 131200 UTC
AND NEAR 14.0S 171.2W AT 140000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone EVAN Category 2


It appears to me that Evan is north and and a bit west of his forecast points is he not?
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 AM EST THU DEC 13 2012

DEZ003-004-NJZ023-024-140845-
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
336 AM EST THU DEC 13 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALSO IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRIDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
In other news


Text messages direct to your contact lens
New technology that will allow information, such as text messages from a mobile phone, to be projected onto a contact lens worn in the human eye has been developed by Belgian researchers.

Ghent University's centre of microsystems technology has developed a spherical curved LCD display which can be embedded in contact lenses and handle projected images using wireless technology.

"Now that we have established the basic technology, we can start working towards real applications, possibly available in only a few years," said Professor Herbert De Smet.

Unlike previous contact lens displays, which are limited to a few small pixels to make up an image, the new technology allows the whole curved surface of the lens to be used.

One application suggested by the researchers is a "one pixel, fully covered contact lens acting as adaptable sunglasses".

"This is not science fiction," said Jelle De Smet, the chief researcher on the project, who believes commercial applications for the lenses will be available within five years.

"This will never replace the cinema screen for films. But for specific applications it may be interesting to show images such as road directions or projecting text messages from our smart phones straight to our eye."

The innovation is the first step towards "fully pixelated contact lens displays" with the same detail as a television screen.

The lenses could also be used for medical purposes, for example to control the light transmission toward the eye's retina in case of a damaged iris.

For cosmetic purposes, the lens could be used the iris of the eye a tuneable colour, allowing the user to change it to suit their mood.




370 ~ On and on it goes. We are obsessed with this way of life.



According to capital weather game here's the issue with next weeks storm.

"The models are working on a strong storm for next week but still can't decide on the details".Unfortunately it seems(for now) it'll be to warm for snow(highs in the low to mid 40's).That could change..I hope.Even if we have only 2-3 inches that'll still be satisfying enough.
Quoting TomballTXPride:



370 ~ On and on it goes. We are obsessed with this way of life.





We'll watch radar loops and satellite loops thru our eyes, a weather nut's dream
GFS............
Good Morning All,

Today's WU history report..

"Did you know that...

The coldest December weather to date of the 20th century hit the South today in 1962. Jacksonville, Fla. recorded a low of 12 degrees, while Tampa bottomed out at 35 degrees (both records). Blairsville, Ga. set a state record low for the month of December by recording a low of 9 degrees. "
post sandy storm surge numbers.........
378. eddye
how cold is it going 2 be in orlando for next friday and saturday i see accuweather has like 41 degrees and a high 0f 62 is that true can u ppl tell me wat the models are showing
Moisture surge in progress over S TX, clouds racing northward towards San Antonio.
In the longer range after the mid-week storm another storm comes flying in.I'm not going to get into the details.Their is still time and issues that need to be sorted out.I just know next week will be interesting.
Quoting eddye:
how cold is it going 2 be in orlando for next friday and saturday i see accuweather has like 41 degrees and a high 0f 62 is that true can u ppl tell me wat the models are showing
dont know where you saw that here's the 7-day forcast...........
382. eddye
largo fl go on accuweather and type in orlando fl for next friday and saturday u got 2 pout extended
Quoting RitaEvac:
Temp bottomed out last night around 2:30AM where I'm at on mainland Galveston county, a coastal county. Wind shifted to SE overnight which drove the temperature up some 8 degrees from 2:30AM to 7AM. Don't think it happens well inland for inland counties like it does along the coast.

Was dead calm last night and was perfect for dew/frost to form but apparently the winds came up just enough to dry out whatever dew/frost that had formed or was forming and was absolutely dry on surfaces this AM with a light breeze out of the SE. Seen these situations plenty of times before just like this. High pressure shifts and return flow warms us up overnight.
It happens all over the world. nothing unusual or just a coastal thing.

Example Rankin Inlet Canada will see the temp tonight rise from -33C (-25F) to -25C (-13F) Rankin Inlet is at 62.8N
384. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hi guys...I like that storm:con thing


So do I.....


Apia, Samoa's largest population district (37,708) is located in the cyclones southern eye wall, which would be equivalent to our Northern Hemisphere's northern eye wall, where stronger storm winds are typically located. To make note this is causing an onshore flow to Apia which does not rise quickly in elevation has you head inland a mile or two.

Webcam from my area..


KM Visible Satellite for Florida


1 KM Visible Satellite for Southern Florida


1 KM Visible Satellite for Southern Texas ..Moisture moving in to the SE Texas area of Moderate drought conditions..


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
It warmed up last night into the low 50s. We have warnings out for snow here in SE Utah. If so, it will be the first real weathre we've had for some time.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The weather is boring here.It is currently in the upper 30's with lots of sunshine.I'm talking about the sunshine that'll blind you and send you off the side of the road.
Good morning all, Wash. You need to invest in some sunglasses. All that bright sunshine can really do damage to your eyes.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
STORM:CON - Winter Impact Index


I was hoping this would be a gathering of storm junkies. In the vein of Comic-Con and other nerdy conventions! ;-)

I'd go!