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From Meranti to Malakas: Another Typhoon Threatens East Asia

By: Bob Henson 10:18 PM GMT on September 15, 2016

Even as the remains of Super Typhoon Meranti continue to spin down in the rugged mountains of eastern China, there’s another storm on the horizon. Typhoon Malakas, located about 600 miles southeast of Taipei, Taiwan, is gaining strength and could take a swipe at Taiwan on Saturday local time. In its update at 18Z (2:00 pm EDT) Thursday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated that Malakas had peak winds of 105 mph and was moving northwest at about 16 mph. A tiny eye has been appearing intermittently on satellite imagery in the midst of Malakas’s large circulation.


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared image from Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite of Typhoon Malakas as of 1900Z (3:00 pm EDT) Thursday, September 15, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 2. Track forecast for Malakas as of 1800Z (2:00 pm EDT) Thursday, September 15, 2016.

Malakas is on a classic recurvature track, swinging around a strong upper-level ridge to its northeast. The GFS, European, and UKMET models--our most reliable models for track prediction--all bring Malakas within about 100-150 miles of Taiwan’s northeast corner this weekend. It wouldn’t take much of a westward swing in Malakas’s track to put Taiwan at risk. JTWC is projecting that Malakas will be a high-end Category 3 storm at that point, with top sustained winds of 125 mph, and it could be stronger. JTWC notes that Malakas could go through a period of rapid intensification, as it will be drawing on a moist atmosphere, warm sea-surface temperatures of 29-30°C, and light to moderate wind shear (10-20 knots).If it misses Taiwan, Malakas will be on course to rake some of Japan’s Yaeyama Islands, located 50 to 150 miles east of Taiwan. Early next week, Malakas will likely sweep northeast as a weakening typhoon or tropical storm along or near the spine of Japan’s main island, Honshu.

For such a powerful storm, Meranti’s toll is light
Taiwan and China are breathing sighs of relief after their encounter with formidable Super Typhoon Meranti. Peaking at 190 mph, Meranti’s satellite-estimated sustained winds put the storm in a tie for the tenth strongest winds in global records for any tropical cyclone, including hurricanes and typhoons.

Fortunately, Meranti’s path stayed just off the south coast of Taiwan, and the typhoon had weakened to Category 2 strength with 105 mph sustained winds by the time it made landfall on the China coast in the city of Xiamen. Nevertheless, some 300,000 of Xiamen’s 3.5 million residents were evacuated, and the others went through a wild night. The Xiamen airport recorded wind gusts to 87 mph just ahead of Meranti’s center at 3 am Thursday, along with a one-hour drop in barometric pressure of 19 millibars (from 983 to 964 millibars). Meranti is the strongest typhoon to strike China’s Fujian province in records going back to 1949, according to the nation’s Xinhua news service. The historic Dongguan Bridge, built in 1145, was destroyed by the flood. Rainfall of more than 400 millimeters (15.75”) was reported in Zhejiang province as Meranti slogged inland. According to the insurance broker Aon Benfield, China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA) reported that Meranti had left at least seven people killed or missing and dozens more injured, with many windows shattered in mid- and high-rise buildings and many trees downed into homes, businesses and vehicles. At least 1.65 million people lost power in Fujian province alone. Several dozen injuries were reported in Taiwan, where more than 600,000 homes lost power. There has been no word yet on the fate of the 3000 residents of Itbayat, the tiny Philippine island just south of Taiwan that was encompassed by Meranti’s eye.

Millions of people were waylaid by cancelled or postponed flight and train schedules as Meranti arrived during East Asia’s Mid-Autumn Festival, a traditional multi-day event commemorating the fall harvest and centered on the full moon that falls between mid-September and mid-October. A two-story-high inflatable moon created as part of the festival went rogue in Meranti’s winds in Fuzhou. The moon caused no major damage but prompted a stir on social media (see embedded video at bottom).


Figure 3. A man walks past a destroyed building in Xiamen in China's eastern Fujian province after Typhoon Meranti made landfall on September 15, 2016.


Figure 4. An aerial view of a flooded road in the city of Fuzhou, about 100 miles north of Typhoon Meranti’s landfall, on September 15, 2016. Image credit: VCG, via Getty Images.

New study: Landfalling typhoons have become more intense since late 1970s
Rapidly intensifying typhoons (of which Meranti is a textbook example) are a growing threat to East and Southeast Asia, according to a study published this month in Nature Geoscience. The study found that the peak winds of typhoons striking the region have increased by 12 - 15% since 1977. This trend appears to be mainly the result of faster intensification rates, as the typhoons are passing over increasingly warmer waters en route to landfall.

Wei Mei and Shang-Ping Xie (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) analyzed the tracks and strengths of nearly 600 typhoons that occurred from 1977 (when the Japan Meteorological Agency began cataloguing typhoon wind speed) through 2013. The authors drew on both JMA and JTWC “best track” data sets, which are the highest-quality typhoon records from each agency. For consistency with JTWC, the JMA wind reports were converted from 10-minute to 1-minute averages. Although a particular storm’s evolution can vary from one dataset to the other, the overall findings of the study were consistent across both datasets. Because of the general increase in peak typhoon strength, the average number of Category 4 and 5 typhoons per year in the Northwest Pacific has jumped from less than 5 to more than 7.

About half of all typhoons in the Northwest Pacific make landfall somewhere, and this is where the trends found in the study are most pronounced. The authors broke the 37-year typhoon record into four clusters, each of which corresponds to a particular region of typhoon development and track. The two clusters that make up most of the landfalling typhoons showed intensification rates that grew by more than 60% over the study period, with an extra 3 knots now being added every six hours during intensification periods. Atmospheric dynamics (including vertical wind shear) don’t show any consistent trend in the study area, but sea surface temperatures have risen, especially just east of Asia. In turn, that has boosted the maximum potential intensity of typhoons approaching the coast of East and Southeast Asia.


Figure 5. Most of the North Pacific Ocean is running warmer than usual right now, as depicted by these departures from average sea surface temperature for September 15, 2016 (in degrees C). Image credit: NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations.

Increasing SSTs are a hallmark of our warming planet, and though Mei and Xie did not attempt to directly link the trends they found to human-produced climate change, they do note that the findings on potential intensity are consistent with output from climate models (CMIP5) used in the most recent IPCC report. These models show that SSTs will be warming more quickly this century across the subtropics than over the deep tropics. “The projected ocean surface warming pattern under increasing greenhouse gas forcing suggests that typhoons striking eastern mainland China, Taiwan, Korea and Japan will intensify further,” wrote the authors. “Given disproportionate damages by intense typhoons, this represents a heightened threat to people and properties in the region.”

A previous study found little trend in the strength and frequency of landfalling typhoons from 1950 to 2010. However, the planet’s atmosphere and oceans did not begin their decade-by-decade warming streak until the 1980s. In a global study examining the period 1975-2010, Greg Holland and Cindy Bruyére (National Center for Atmospheric Research, or NCAR) found that more tropical cyclones were reaching Category 4 and 5 intensity over time, with a declining share at the Category 1 and 2 levels. In an email, Holland added: “While not emphasized in our paper, we did find that globally the increasing proportions could be contributed both to increasing intensification rates (in agreement with Mie and Xie) and to longer periods spent over warm oceans, and that both seemed to be equally important.”

Addressing the new study by Mei and Xie, NCAR’s James Done said in an email: “It's a very nice paper, and the results are generally in line with how we think the intensity distribution would change under warming.” The NCAR group has produced a Cyclone Damage Potential index that combines forward speed and storm size with peak winds to gauge a tropical cyclone’s overall ability to wreak havoc. This index has shown a linear increase over the West Pacific for landfalling storms over the last decade, according to a quick analysis by NCAR’s Ming Ge (see Figure 6 below).

Jeff Masters posted earlier today on activity in the Atlantic; he’ll be back on Friday morning with our next update.

Bob Henson


Figure 6. Annual Cyclone Damage Potential (CDP) from 2000 to 2014 for typhoons across the Northwest Pacific. CDP incorporates the size and speed of motion of tropical cyclones as well as their peak sustained winds. Shown are each year's maximum CDP value for all typhoons, the average CDP for all landfalling typhoons (black), and the average CDP for all typhoons, whether or not they make landfall (blue). A longer time period would be needed to see if the apparent increase in CDP for landfalling typhoons is statistically significant. Image credit: Ming Ge and James Done, NCAR.



Video 1. Dan Lindsey (CSU/CIRA) says: “This one is too cool not to share - it's CIRA's Geocolor product from #Himawari showing #Meranti on 13-14 Sep.” Image credit: @DanLindsey77.



Video 2. A model moon rampages through the streets of the Chinese city of Fuzhou after being loosed by Typhoon Meranti. Image credit: Courtesy @shanghaiist.


Hurricane Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments


i say when was the last time this blog went down for blog maintenance seems like never


i think its time that WU got a new hard drive
Out of the 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF, 8 of its members ( E7, E19, E23, E25, E26, E27, E30, & E31) in the 12z run showed Tropical Depression 12 becoming a hurricane and making landfall somewhere along the U.S. East Coast from Florida to Maine. Member E19 shows it going into the GOM.
Thank you Mr. Henson...Would have loved to have had a recon flight into Meranti.
Quoting 2. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Out of the 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF, 8 of its members ( E7, E19, E23, E25, E26, E27, E30, & E31) in the 12z run showed Tropical Depression 12 becoming a hurricane and making landfall somewhere along the U.S. East Coast from Florida to Maine. Member E19 shows it going into the GOM.
Yep...This is prime time for a Cape Verde type hurricane to hit the U.S.

12L is forming an anticyclone at about 15N 33W

So sorry for the people getting battered in the EPAC.
The one-two punch is devastating with these strong systems.
At least it's turning north.
Quoting 2. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Out of the 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF, 8 of its members ( E7, E19, E23, E25, E26, E27, E30, & E31) in the 12z run showed Tropical Depression 12 becoming a hurricane and making landfall somewhere along the U.S. East Coast from Florida to Maine. Member E19 shows it going into the GOM.


i sure hop they fix the hard drive issue if ture this is going too be come a vary busy blog and the last thing we need is for this blog too go down with a land falling cat 5 hurricane some where
what about ex 92. ? see a bit of turning and growing convection
Quoting 6. thetwilightzone:



i sure hop they fix the hard drive issue if ture this is going too be come a vary busy blog and the last thing we need is for this blog too go down with a land falling cat 5 hurricane some where


It might be a matter of whether you are using Windows 10.
Applications are having to adjust to current conditions.
Quoting 7. islander101010:

what about ex 92. ? see a bit of turning


here what the NHC said about ex 92L

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located well to the east-northeast of Bermuda, on
Tropical Depression Julia, located offshore of the South Carolina
coast, and on Tropical Depression Twelve, located west-northwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands.

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure
system over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico have become a little
better organized since yesterday. Some additional slow development
could occur before the low moves inland over the Texas coast Friday
or Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
You know what!? GFS has shifted SOUTH again. All 00z models will follow. :))
GFS does not develop T.D 12 but it does have a stronger ridge this run.
ex 92L looks really good right now ex 92L could pull a fast one on us is there any thing falling in the area of ex 92L? there is a good ch that ex 92L could be come TD 13 or may be even Lisa

reinitiate invest shortly taz?
Quoting 13. islander101010:

reinitiate invest shortly taz?



we will have too see what the NHC says at 8PM but there is a vary good ch that we could have ex 92L back unless if this is a new area then we may have 96L then
am going with 50% / 70% for ex 92L tonight on at the 8pm two
gulf of mexico for you must be in a sweet spot
93L pulled a fast one on us at 10% and we got a TS



i think ex 92L is well under way in pulling a fast one has well
me·an·der
mēˈandər/Submit
verb
1.
(of a river or road) follow a winding course.
"a river that meandered gently through a meadow"
synonyms: zigzag, wind, twist, turn, curve, curl, bend, snake
"the river meandered gently"


Julia is supposed to meander for a day or so if she survives, which is doubtful, but since NHC likes the word, here it is.
Quoting 4. hydrus:

Yep...This is prime time for a Cape Verde type hurricane to hit the U.S.

Or anywhere else, for that matter, between the Caymans and Carolinas.
20. IDTH
Quoting 5. Chicklit:


12L is forming an anticyclone at about 15N 33W

So sorry for the people getting battered in the EPAC.
The one-two punch is devastating with these strong systems.
At least it's turning north.

An anticyclone is bad news. The more ventilated this system becomes, the more potential it has.
Quoting 12. thetwilightzone:

ex 92L looks really good right now ex 92L could pull a fast one on us is there any thing falling in the area of ex 92L? there is a good ch that ex 92L could be come TD 13 or may be even Lisa


Would be Karl if it was named as td 12 havent be name yet.
Quoting 21. allancalderini:

Would be Karl if it was named as td 12 havent be name yet.


so ture then TD 12 would be Lisa if it takes too long but i think tonight is the night that we get Karl from TD 12 but we will see
Thanks for the update; interesting research as to the West Pacific and the potential emerging trend for that basin in terms of stronger typhoons due to sub-tropics warming. This of course begs the question as to whether the Atlantic Basin will follow suit (with stronger sub-tropics storms as well) or whether there might be some unknown "inverse" relationship between the two basins (which we currently see in terms of frequency in each basin due to the enso cycle).

Just noting that in this same current period (the last 10 years) while we are seeing stronger and more frequent typhoons in the west-pac, we are also seeing more struggling tropical storms in the Atlantic basin as opposed to the larger number of majors that we often saw in the period prior to 2005-2006.

I do not have the answer but an interesting concept to consider in the coming decades if we continue to see this intensity issue on the Pacific end and a relative lack or substantial down-turn in Atlantic majors; we are entering uncharted territory as the globe warms.
Quoting 10. CaribBoy:

You know what!? GFS has shifted SOUTH again. All 00z models will follow. :))


I told you before.
heh


ex 92L all so has a anticyclone over it

18Z GFS now also has a storm in the MDR at a low latitude just like the 12Z ECMWF around the 240 hour timeframe. Long ways out, but something to keep an eye on. Where's CaribBoy?
I'm only going to show a few of the ensemble members.

E19 at 264 hrs. 963 mb.



E23 at 282 hrs. 947 mb.



E19 at 306 hrs. 948 mb.

seems like ex 92 isnt moving a whole lot.
Well, Tropical signiture is evident.

Quoting 14. thetwilightzone:



we will have too see what the NHC says at 8PM but there is a vary good ch that we could have ex 92L back unless if this is a new area then we may have 96L then  Been watching 92 l this will be the 3rd  time it would re energize..cape verde seedlings are hard to kill..

Quoting 20. IDTH:


An anticyclone is bad news. The more ventilated this system becomes, the more potential it has.


Harder to shear to death as well.
Quoting 28. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I'm only going to show a few of the ensemble members.

E19 at 264 hrs. 963 mb.



E23 at 282 hrs. 947 mb.



E19 at 306 hrs. 948 mb.





oh boy this blog would go nuts if that happen

and your model of DOOM for today
Quoting 29. islander101010:

seems like ex 92 isnt moving a whole lot.


its not its stalled
Quoting 30. washingaway:

Well, Tropical signiture is evident.



holy we cows we really need too watch ex 92L am starting too see bannding on the N side and may be S side of the storm
The do grow em big in the Pacific.





Quoting 34. thetwilightzone:



its not its stalled



It Shall Become Lisa
if you live in TX i would keep a vary closed tabs on ex 92L tonight it looks like it vary closed to at lest be coming a TD tonight vary good ch the way ex 92L is looking tonight the nhc will bump this up too 60% / 80% ex 92L could be come a TD at any time has it is getting march better organized
Quoting 34. thetwilightzone:



its not its stalled
It is looking quite interesting tonight, we'll see what it wants to do.
Quoting 28. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I'm only going to show a few of the ensemble members.

E19 at 264 hrs. 963 mb.



E23 at 282 hrs. 947 mb.



E19 at 306 hrs. 948 mb.




Karl seems like a jerk.
Quoting 37. K8eCane:




It Shall Become Lisa


not if TD 12 takes its time
On Weather Underground last night, they compared the moisture content in the Western Pacific (MDR region) to the Atlantic Basin (MDR region).
The difference is night and day and the reason why the Western Pacific produces so many tropical cyclones.
we might see some unusual tropical weather. first up julie and ex 92 will they interact with one another.
Taz, we'll need a bigger boat, I mean bigger blog.
Everybody thinks, we're going to have a blockbuster - time to break out the hurricane plans.

the baby cub
Quoting 43. islander101010:

even though its a long way away we might see some unusual tropical weather. first up julie and ex 92 will they interact with one another.


Im a big fan of Karl Parker but his is spelled with ( c )....so it may become Karl. I do see it stalling and that is never good ( unless you want a storm). And with an anticyclone, watch out for it.
Quoting 44. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Taz, we'll need a bigger boat, I mean bigger blog.



i hop the blog holds up with ex 92L getting march better organized its at lest vary closed too a TD right now we could see at lest a 50 too 70 mph TS be for land fall from ex 92 since it is moveing slow
Oh CaribBoy. ;)



No one names anything save for the NHC.


Its what they do.


Using any name before them..is phool's gold, and only creates confusion.
Everyone have a safe weather evening and will check back in the am (working late tonight).

As to AOI in the Gulf, shear has become favorable (with a ULAC above the disturbance) but it is very close to land and has a very broad elongated area of vort (un-stacked between the surface and mid level).  We would have to see if it can fire some convection overnight and into D-Max in the early am to to try to lower pressures at the surface and stack up a bit.  The current NHC 20% sounds about right unless something drastic (more concentrated convection) blows up overnight IMHO.




ULAC:



Surface Vort: still to the SW of the current AOL.




Mid-Level: vort well to the SW of the main AOL.





Upper Level: No vort but no ULL to interfere with shear and dry air aloft.




Quoting 50. 882MB:

Oh CariBoy. ;)







dont get CariBoy. started please
Quoting 53. thetwilightzone:




dont get CariBoy. started please



We don't need him started the only way he would be happy is if a cat 5 did loop de loops around him for weeks
Quoting 52. weathermanwannabe:

Everyone have a safe weather evening and will check back in the am (working late tonight).

As to AOI in the Gulf, shear has become favorable (with a ULAC above the disturbance) but it is very close to land and has a very broad elongated area of vort (un-stacked between the surface and mid level).  We would have to see if it can fire some convection overnight and into D-Max in the early am to to try to lower pressures at the surface and stack up a bit.  The current NHC 20% sounds about right unless something drastic (more concentrated convection) blows up overnight IMHO.
ULAC:


Surface Vort: still to the SW of the current AOL.



Mid-Level: vort well to the SW of the main AOL.



Upper Level: No vort but no ULL to interfere with shear and dry air aloft.









guys there no reason too keep posting and posting and posting the wind shear map its all ready been post at lest 3 too 4 times now its starting too get old seeing the same map every post
This could be TD 13/Karl or Lisa depending if TD 12 is upgraded. We will see how it will do over the next 12-24 hours

Quoting 45. Chicklit:

Everybody thinks, we're going to have a blockbuster - time to break out the hurricane plans.


Watch this one closely, Chicklit
Quoting 51. Patrap:

No one names anything save for the NHC.


Its what they do.


Using any name before them..is phool's gold, and only creates confusion.



I have stated before and will state again that i am not a professional met....just engaging in a phools paradise here it seems.
we will see what the new NHC tropical weather out look says in a few
Quoting 57. Grothar:



Watch this one closely, Chicklit

no doubt - Doc Masters calling it early is always a good sign.
🌝🌉🌊🌏🎑

Why do we name tropical storms and hurricanes

Storms are given short, distinctive names to avoid confusion and streamline communications

Until the early 1950s, tropical storms and hurricanes were tracked by year and the order in which they occurred during that year. Over time, it was learned that the use of short, easily remembered names in written as well as spoken communications is quicker and reduces confusion when two or more tropical storms occur at the same time. In the past, confusion and false rumors resulted when storm advisories broadcast from radio stations were mistaken for warnings concerning an entirely different storm located hundreds of miles away.

In 1953, the United States began using female names for storms and, by 1978, both male and female names were used to identify Northern Pacific storms. This was then adopted in 1979 for storms in the Atlantic basin.

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center does not control the naming of tropical storms. Instead, there is a strict procedure established by the World Meteorological Organization. For Atlantic hurricanes, there is a list of male and female names which are used on a six-year rotation. The only time that there is a change is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate. In the event that more than twenty-one named tropical cyclones occur in a season, any additional storms will take names from the Greek alphabet.

For a complete list of upcoming and retired storm names, visit the National Weather Service website.

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These windshield wiper model runs are going to have CaribBoy sitting in the corner sucking his thumb if it continues for days.
Quoting 51. Patrap:

No one names anything save for the NHC.


Its what they do.


Using any name before them..is phool's gold, and only creates confusion.


I can't name my blobs anymore? :_( That might confuse the NHC even more.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located well to the east-northeast of Bermuda, on
Tropical Storm Julia, located offshore of the South Carolina
coast, and on Tropical Depression Twelve, located west of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

An elongated area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers.
Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur before
it moves inland over Texas by Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa
on Friday, and then move generally west-northwestward over the far
eastern Atlantic. Some slight development of this wave is possible
before conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone
formation early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent



only 20% still i would have at lest bump it up too 40% / 50 %
🌍🌛🌊🎑

Muddying fact and fiction is never cool.

Men Been doin it for centuries...from Africa to Austria...for theirs any other's interest.






And in other news, its a sailors delight in Wilmington NC tonight. Wouldnt think it would be.

ATT sailors...I am not a met. Please check your local weather. Im just going by the Red Sky adage
Quoting 42. Sfloridacat5:

On Weather Underground last night, they compared the moisture content in the Western Pacific (MDR region) to the Atlantic Basin (MDR region).
The difference is night and day and the reason why the Western Pacific produces so many tropical cyclones.


Well, the WPAC doesn't have the worlds largest hot desert constantly spewing dust into it and SSTs are a lot warmer than the Atlantic, plus the oceanic heat content is much greater. So much greater that the WPAC TCHP charts have a larger scale.

It'd be interesting to see how active the Atlantic would be if the Sahara was non-existent.

TD12 seems to be a trouble maker in the making. Will be interesting to see what things are like in a few days time and if the GFS falls in line with the Euro/UKMET.
Taz, I'm not on here much, but you have been doing a lot of nagging on other posters' posting habits lately and its getting worn out. I appreciated the shear map as I had personally not seen it yet and often miss things when the board gets moving. Being from Houston, I'm interested in the prospects of development for this system and appreciated the post.


what is the blobcon status Gro?
The 8PM Tropical Weather Discussion is not yet out on the www.nhc.noaa.gov site.
Quoting 67. thetwilightzone:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located well to the east-northeast of Bermuda, on
Tropical Storm Julia, located offshore of the South Carolina
coast, and on Tropical Depression Twelve, located west of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

An elongated area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers.
Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur before
it moves inland over Texas by Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa
on Friday, and then move generally west-northwestward over the far
eastern Atlantic. Some slight development of this wave is possible
before conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone
formation early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent



only 20% still i would have at lest bump it up too 40% / 50 %
There model freaks that's why.
Quoting 66. Grothar:



I can't name my blobs anymore? :_( That might confuse the NHC even more.


I am reminded of Bill Klem, baseball umpire extraordinaire back in the early days of the modern era of the game. One of his many famous quotes was made with regard to whether a pitch was a ball or a strike. He is reported to have said, "It ain't nothing till I call it!" That is how it is with hurricanes being named by the NHC.
Quoting 38. thetwilightzone:
if you live in TX i would keep a vary closed tabs on ex 92L tonight it looks like it vary closed to at lest be coming a TD tonight vary good ch the way ex 92L is looking tonight the nhc will bump this up too 60% / 80% ex 92L could be come a TD at any time has it is getting march better organized.
Perhaps that is why Pureet is not posting - he may be really frightened and hiding under his bed.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2 hours ago

Many EPS ensembles for TD 12L show dev into hurricane. East coast & Bermuda always should watch this type of system


Quoting 68. Patrap:

🌍🌛🌊🎑

Muddying fact and fiction is never cool.

Men Been doin it for centuries...from Africa to Austria...for theirs any other's interest.







Good evening Pat..Is that ex 92L buried in that blob in the gulf...It looks troublesome...
Wow. 20% chance? I thought it stood a better chance of developing into.
The current state of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is +0.468(August estimates)! Only twice since 1995 has there been a higher AMO Index in August(1998, & 2010). So any struggle this season can't be blamed on any -AMO but something else prehaps the Atlantic Trifecto Index?
Quoting 74. HurricaneAndre:

There model freaks that's why.


A lot would have to happen for this to develop before going into Texas
AL, 11, 2016091600, , BEST, 0, 315N, 773W, 35, 1007, TS,
Based on a tour of the offshore rig reports (with a focus on wind direction), the position of the surface trough in the western gulf seems fairly accurate on the RAP model.


00Z (7PM CDT) pressure, winds
Quoting 79. K8eCane:

Wow. 20% chance? I thought it stood a better chance of developing into.


they want too see how it dos over night
WOW

AL, 12, 2016091600, , BEST, 0, 178N, 319W, 40, 1005, TS

Quoting 71. IkeMadeLawyer:

Taz, I'm not on here much, but you have been doing a lot of nagging on other posters' posting habits lately and its getting worn out. I appreciated the shear map as I had personally not seen it yet and often miss things when the board gets moving. Being from Houston, I'm interested in the prospects of development for this system and appreciated the post.
Watch it now! He's the Wunderground mascot. He can do as he pleases, but it's off limits to the rest of us.
AL, 12, 2016091600, , BEST, 0, 178N, 319W, 40, 1005, TS

Hello Karl?
Quoting 64. Patrap:

🌝🌉🌊🌏🎑

Why do we name tropical storms and hurricanes

Storms are given short, distinctive names to avoid confusion and streamline communications

Until the early 1950s, tropical storms and hurricanes were tracked by year and the order in which they occurred during that year. Over time, it was learned that the use of short, easily remembered names in written as well as spoken communications is quicker and reduces confusion when two or more tropical storms occur at the same time. In the past, confusion and false rumors resulted when storm advisories broadcast from radio stations were mistaken for warnings concerning an entirely different storm located hundreds of miles away.

In 1953, the United States began using female names for storms and, by 1978, both male and female names were used to identify Northern Pacific storms. This was then adopted in 1979 for storms in the Atlantic basin.

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center does not control the naming of tropical storms. Instead, there is a strict procedure established by the World Meteorological Organization. For Atlantic hurricanes, there is a list of male and female names which are used on a six-year rotation. The only time that there is a change is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate. In the event that more than twenty-one named tropical cyclones occur in a season, any additional storms will take names from the Greek alphabet.

For a complete list of upcoming and retired storm names, visit the National Weather Service website.

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Ya, I remember when they started naming hurricanes with male names. For some weird reason I really didn't like it (maybe because I'm female idk). But, something I have wondered about is the dual names issued for TC's in the WPac for instance, Meranti also called Ferdie. Did the people in Asia call it Meranti or did they call it Ferdie (or did they call it something that I can't pronounce)?
Quoting 80. weatherbro:

The current state of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is +0.468(August estimates)! Only twice since 1995 has there been a higher AMO Index in August(1998, & 2010). So any struggle this season can't be blamed on any -AMO but something else prehaps the Atlantic Trifecto Index?

I don't get how we could possibly be in an negative AMO. Where are the cold SSTs? I don't see any. If we were in a true -AMO - the AMO value would be negative! I'm one of the only users here that still thinks the active era may not be over - people are making this season out to be much worse than it really is. The warmer SSTs are just farther north in the subtropics, but this is not a negative AMO pattern.
Quoting 72. hurricanehanna:



what is the blobcon status Gro?



Sorry, I can't give them anymore. I got yelled at on the blog. :) I guess you boys and girls are on your own now. I can secretly wumail you all if you want. I just don't know what the poor NHC is going to do if I don't tell them where these things are and are going.

The only thing I can say about 12D is pretty much what I've been saying for a few days. EWWWWW!
Quoting 89. Hurricanes101:

AL, 12, 2016091600, , BEST, 0, 178N, 319W, 40, 1005, TS

Hello Karl?



we will have too see at 11pm but if winds are all ready 45 mph we could have could be in for major trouble down the road has that is a big jump in wind speed from 35 mph too 45 mph so well have to wait and see what the NHC says at 11pm
Quoting 68. Patrap:

🌍🌛🌊🎑

Muddying fact and fiction is never cool.

Men Been doin it for centuries...from Africa to Austria...for theirs any other's interest.







If that continues to sit there and brew I'm going to worry-I'm already starting to worry
Quoting 94. thetwilightzone:




we will have too see at 11pm but if winds are all ready 45 mph we could have could be in for major trouble down the road has that is a big jump in wind speed from 35 mph too 45 mph so well have to wait and see what the NHC says at 11pm


agreed, I also noticed the database backtracked and has it a TS since 2pm this afternoon. I would think that solidifies an upgrade that the NHC did not see happening for another 3 days
Quoting 89. Hurricanes101:

AL, 12, 2016091600, , BEST, 0, 178N, 319W, 40, 1005, TS

Hello Karl?


Depends on what the NHC thinks.
Quoting 75. billyjoejimbob:



I am reminded of Bill Klem, baseball umpire extraordinaire back in the early days of the modern era of the game. One of his many famous quotes was made with regard to whether a pitch was a ball or a strike. He is reported to have said, "It ain't nothing till I call it!" That is how it is with hurricanes being named by the NHC.


I never cared for baseball much. The only thing I remember about baseball is Yogi Berra saying once, "Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded."
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN, BUT NOT FOR A FEW DAYS..

well so march for that plan

AL, 12, 2016091600, , BEST, 0, 178N, 319W, 40, 1005, TS


all ready at 45 mph

am starting too think the ECMWF and UKMET models will materialize after all since the storm is all ready at 45 mph
Quoting 96. Hurricanes101:



agreed, I also noticed the database backtracked and has it a TS since 2pm this afternoon. I would think that solidifies an upgrade that the NHC did not see happening for another 3 days


yep it was not forecast too hit 45 mph for other 96hrs or so well so march for that plan
102. IDTH
Quoting 99. thetwilightzone:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN, BUT NOT FOR A FEW DAYS..

well so march for that plan

AL, 12, 2016091600, , BEST, 0, 178N, 319W, 40, 1005, TS


all ready at 45 mph

am starting too think the ECMWF and UKMET models will materialize after all since the storm is all ready at 45 mph


Considering it's already got an anticyclone developing over it too, I'd say there's good reason to believe intensity on Karl could be accurate with the ECMWF.

12L...

Quoting 91. HurricaneFan:


I don't get how we could possibly be in an negative AMO. Where are the cold SSTs? I don't see any. If we were in a true -AMO - the AMO value would be negative! I'm one of the only users here that still thinks the active era may not be over - people are making this season out to be much worse than it really is. The warmer SSTs are just farther north in the subtropics, but this is not a negative AMO pattern.
I don't see an issue with the number of storms, it's the quality so to speak of the storms that seems to be an issue
105. JRRP7

yeah... this is Karl
They might announce it sooner, since it already is a TS.
108. IDTH
Quoting 106. GeoffreyWPB:





That escalated quickly.
Quoting 77. WeatherkidJoe2323:


Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2 hours ago

Many EPS ensembles for TD 12L show dev into hurricane. East coast & Bermuda always should watch this type of system



And, I'm really starting to worry about this one...
9/16 0Z
Tropical Storm Wind: 40 kts
Pressure: 1005 mb
Coordinates: 17.8N 31.9W
12L/Karl has a very vigorous circulation, won't surprise me if it maintains TS status through the increasing shear.

Might be an unexpected threat down the road... CaribBoy might be in for a surprise!
112. IDTH
Quoting 111. Articuno:

12L/Karl has a very vigorous circulation, won't surprise me if it maintains TS status through the increasing shear.

Might be an unexpected threat down the road... CaribBoy might be in for a surprise!

Not if that anticyclone stays around.
Quoting 95. Loduck:

If that continues to sit there and brew I'm going to worry-I'm already starting to worry


Will this be an Alicia-type situation for SE Texas?
Quoting 105. JRRP7:


yeah... this is Karl


Oo finally a good ASCAT pass!

Interesting to see "Karl" already up to a 40kt tropical storm. Somewhat worrying as it gives more confidence to the UKMET/Euro depiction of upper level winds. It should mean that the 00z GFS (or 06z run - whichever has the new data for initiation) should come more in line with the Euro.
Quoting 110. Grothar:

9/16 0Z
Tropical Storm Wind: 40 kts
Pressure: 1005 mb
Coordinates: 17.8N 31.9W


Karl at 11 perhaps ?
Quoting 106. GeoffreyWPB:




They don't seem to be as worried about it as I am!
118. joHS
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal122016.dat
AL, 12, 2016091512, , BEST, 0, 176N, 298W, 30, 1009, TD,
AL, 12, 2016091518, , BEST, 0, 177N, 308W, 35, 1007, TS,
AL, 12, 2016091600, , BEST, 0, 178N, 319W, 40, 1005, TS,

and...gfs says Julia looping to visit fl.....I think gro called this a while ago
Quoting 95. Loduck:

If that continues to sit there and brew I'm going to worry-I'm already starting to worry
From NWS Houston :Area of disturbed weather in the Gulf this morning and early
afternoon has greater shower and thunderstorm development with a
weak circulation though pressures still 1012mb or so at 18z.
Guidance all keeps light to moderate shear surrounded by dry air
as the inhibitors while it drifts west. Toward morning it starts
to accelerate west and by around 18z it should be on the coast
probably south of CRP. This should lead to southerly to
southeasterly flow dominating the winds across the Upper Texas
Coast Friday with at least scattered showers and thunderstorms and
possibly greater coverage. In addition the threat of a waterspout
may be little greater as well. Ridging building into Central Gulf
should help to relax winds Sunday through Tuesday with a diurnal
weak seabreeze/landbreeze wind pattern.
Hello you Wunders, I've been lurking for about a year and really appreciate all you bloggers have taught me. My friends wonder why I know what the weather will do, days before they have heard anything about it!
I had to come out of lurk mode briefly so I could share the best Yogi Berra quote, which should resound with y'all perfectly:
"It's amazing what you can see, just by looking!"
Quoting 121. VIETNAM68:

From NWS Houston :Area of disturbed weather in the Gulf this morning and early
afternoon has greater shower and thunderstorm development with a
weak circulation though pressures still 1012mb or so at 18z.
Guidance all keeps light to moderate shear surrounded by dry air
as the inhibitors while it drifts west. Toward morning it starts
to accelerate west and by around 18z it should be on the coast
probably south of CRP. This should lead to southerly to
southeasterly flow dominating the winds across the Upper Texas
Coast Friday with at least scattered showers and thunderstorms and
possibly greater coverage. In addition the threat of a waterspout
may be little greater as well. Ridging building into Central Gulf
should help to relax winds Sunday through Tuesday with a diurnal
weak seabreeze/landbreeze wind pattern.


What are you trying to say, VIETNAM68? Is there any real danger to the Houston area if this become Hurricane Alicia part II?
Quoting 118. joHS:

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal122016.dat
AL, 12, 2016091512, , BEST, 0, 176N, 298W, 30, 1009, TD,
AL, 12, 2016091518, , BEST, 0, 177N, 308W, 35, 1007, TS,
AL, 12, 2016091600, , BEST, 0, 178N, 319W, 40, 1005, TS,

and...gfs says Julia looping to visit fl.....I think gro called this a while ago


4 days ago. I'm not just a funny guy :) I think we are going to need a bigger crayon this week.

125. joHS
re: bigger crayon this week

I just need more valium
Hello, all seems like the topics have really ramped up. TD 12 might be one to watch as it could possibly make it towards South Florida by next week.
Quoting 124. Grothar:



4 days ago. I'm not just a funny guy :) I think we are going to need a bigger crayon this week.




I hope they get bigger servers!
Quoting 107. Grothar:

They might announce it sooner, since it already is a TS.

NHC still showing it as a depression on the website.
Based on the latest info and satellite presentation I think TD 12 will be Karl at 11
AL, 10, 2016091600, , BEST, 0, 406N, 462W, 50, 996, TS

Ian stronger too
Quoting 91. HurricaneFan:


I don't get how we could possibly be in an negative AMO. Where are the cold SSTs? I don't see any. If we were in a true -AMO - the AMO value would be negative! I'm one of the only users here that still thinks the active era may not be over - people are making this season out to be much worse than it really is. The warmer SSTs are just farther north in the subtropics, but this is not a negative AMO pattern.


The problem with the AMO is that gobal warming/climate change is likely masking the shift to a -AMO. In a warming world, you would expect ocean SSTs to largerly have a positive anomaly - which a +AMO is judged by. When you compare the Atlantic SSTs to the global average, you then start to see a more clear -AMO signature:



Of course, we'll need a few more years to figure out if we're at the end of the +AMO for sure, but so far signs seem to be pointing that way.
The last time we had 3 tropical storms at the same time was in 2012 I believe. That's if we do get Karl at 11 and Julia isn't downgraded.
GFS ensembles bring Julia back to Florida lol.

Quoting 129. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Based on the latest info and satellite presentation I think TD 12 will be Karl at 11


We better get ready, lol =), we are not certain yet whether it will curve out to sea or go towards south Florida.
Quoting 124. Grothar:



4 days ago. I'm not just a funny guy :) I think we are going to need a bigger crayon this week.




Are you the Godfather of the meteorlogical black market? Or should I say blob market? :)
Quoting 119. Grothar:


Well that would be something.
Looks like the Atlantic may indeed see three active named storms at 11PM of at least tropical storm intensity. I wonder when this happened last in the Atlantic.
Quoting 116. hurricanehanna:



Karl at 11 perhaps ?
Few days ahead of schedule it would be for sure.
Quoting 113. Grothar:




I have a feeling, whether this actually impacts the country or not. Those few days as it is passing around 60W there will be a major amount of nail biting as Karl narrows its path. I think at the very least we are about to see a very good show.
A possibility?
we can see that Julia is moveing due S tonight its all so will be heading in too lower wind shear has well




🌎🌝🌉

Quoting 134. birdsrock2016:



We better get ready, lol =), we are not certain yet whether it will curve out to sea or go towards south Florida.


It must be watched, that's for sure
Quoting 141. thetwilightzone:

we can see that Julia is moveing due S tonight its all so will be heading in too lower wind shear has well







So, a possibility to restrengthen again, maybe even stronger than before?
Hurricane Ivan and ghost of Ivan track


Julia all so seems like it will soon be off here forecast point and all so it seems like Julia has speed up a little tonight
Quoting 144. birdsrock2016:



So, a possibility to restrengthen again, maybe even stronger than before?


it has all ready restrengthen but yes it could be heading for the gulf
Levi Cowan has a new video everyone

Link
Quoting 145. Patrap:

Hurricane Ivan and ghost of Ivan track






12 years ago...... what a night
Quoting 133. WeatherkidJoe2323:

GFS ensembles bring Julia back to Florida lol.


A few days ago a blogger (Grothar, I think) said that Julia was going to do this!
Quoting 150. Loduck:

A few days ago a blogger (Grothar, I think) said that Julia was going to do this!


CMC hinted at this before anything else.
Keep in mind, although Florida's hurricane drought has ended, South Florida's hurricane drought is still at 11 years and counting , and each day is a valuable chance to prepare before the next big one hits South Florida
Quoting 114. pureet1948:



Will this be an Alicia-type situation for SE Texas?
According to all the models I don't think you have anything to worry about however, I just don't trust anything that has that look lurking about in the GOM at this time of year!
Quoting 119. Grothar:






Quoting 151. Hurricanes101:



CMC hinted at this before anything else.


And we thought the CMC was not reliable, LOL=0.
It is so doggone dry here in Gordon county, NW Georgia.   Nobody mentions our drought but we are in bad shape here.  I think we are at least 15 inches below normal.  Our Rivers and streams are at extremely low levels.   We are having fires now in our area.   We need a tropical system to come from the Gulf to help us out.
since TD 12 is now 96hrs a head on where the NHC said the winds will be wish is all ready at 45 mph am really looking for word and see if they up the winds from 72hr too 120hrs out
Quoting 153. Loduck:

According to all the models I don't think you have anything to worry about however, I just don't trust anything that has that look lurking about in the GOM at this time of year!


Right. CYA.
🌝🌎🌊🎑

Quoting 112. IDTH:


Not if that anticyclone stays around.


Yeah

I hope he at least gets some rain though
I remember so many who claimed the season was over just a week ago and September will be shut down after Hermine ;)
Quoting 162. WeatherkidJoe2323:

I remember so many who claimed the season was over just a week ago and September will be shut down after Hermine ;)

One thing I have learned is conditions can change rapidly. Just look at Joaquin last year. It was originally expected to not develop, then it was expected to become a TD, then a TS, and we nearly got a category 5 hurricane out of it. This season is far from over but some people on here don't seem to agree.




....dat's no regla' Moon koritheman,



That's the really rare Fuzhou Typhoon Moon,....




Quick,turn around and don't drown, now!

165. IDTH
Quoting 162. WeatherkidJoe2323:

I remember so many who claimed the season was over just a week ago and September will be shut down after Hermine ;)

Clearly they weren't around for 2012 or the past two Hurricane Seasons. I wasn't really tracking the tropics much the past week or so, but I can tell there is something about TD 12 (Karl) that gives me a sense of uneasiness.
Every storm leaves us all with iconic images from their short lived time ravaging along somewhere.



WATCH: Model moon rampages through streets of Fuzhou after being loosed by Typhoon Meranti

However, these puny fake moons are no match for the awesome power of Super Typhoon Meranti. In a sign of things to come, a runaway moon was spotted earlier today rolling through streets of Fuzhou.


Quoting 162. WeatherkidJoe2323:

I remember so many who claimed the season was over just a week ago and September will be shut down after Hermine ;)
I also remember so many people posting doom that never happened but strangely no one brings that up.....
Quoting 114. pureet1948:



Will this be an Alicia-type situation for SE Texas?
Test run on the generator in east central texas. Preparing for the worse. Still have nightmares of refugees from katrina.
Quoting 160. Patrap:

🌝🌎🌊🎑






2016 Tropical Storm Julia. Where were you?
I said few days ago Julia would turn south and head to fl.
Quoting 168. Kenfa03:

Test run on the generator in east central texas. Preparing for the worse. Still have nightmares of refugees from katrina.


But Loduck said we don't have anything to worry about according to the models. You disagree?
Quoting 171. pureet1948:



But Loduck said we don't have anything to worry about according to the models. You disagree?
Rather be safe than sorry again.
Another large and vigorous cyclone is over the Arctic Ocean right now, with sub-980mb surface pressure. Good visualization of it at earth.nullschool.net. This should churn up some more tepid waters and melt some more ice before the deep freeze starts to set in.
Quoting 172. Kenfa03:

Rather be safe than sorry again.


When were you sorry?
Quoting 156. lostinohio:

It is so doggone dry here in Gordon county, NW Georgia.   Nobody mentions our drought but we are in bad shape here.  I think we are at least 15 inches below normal.  Our Rivers and streams are at extremely low levels.   We are having fires now in our area.   We need a tropical system to come from the Gulf to help us out.




I agree, its getting real bad in Greenville and about six inches below normal

Quoting 167. washingtonian115:

I also remember so many people posting doom that never happened but strangely no one brings that up.....


I don't post doom and I would never call a season dead I take it day by day and observe
Quoting 174. pureet1948:



When were you sorry?
should be on lookout for heavy rain potential this weekend even if GOM system doesn't develop. Although it's starting to fire good convection...you can see some of rain on the Houston radar. It's sitting over very warm water so it does have potential if it sits and drifts very slowly west or wnw. I know in Houston area we have very good rain chances all weekend. I'm gonna keep my eye on it and want to see what it does tonight.
Gettin' bizzzzzzeee guyz...
Quoting 177. kallenjrtx:

should be on lookout for heavy rain potential this weekend even if GOM system doesn't develop. Although it's starting to fire good convection...you can see some of rain on the Houston radar. It's sitting over very warm water so it does have potential if it sits and drifts very slowly west or wnw. I know in Houston area we have very good rain chances all weekend. I'm gonna keep my eye on it and want to see what it does tonight.


Could this be a historical weather event for Houston?
Quoting 133. WeatherkidJoe2323:

GFS ensembles bring Julia back to Florida lol.




Julia really wants that E coast of FL landfall she didn't get credit for the first time around.
181. JRRP7
am going too bed soon my self has soon has the new 11pm updates are out
Quoting 181. JRRP7:



This confirms it. Karl is coming at 11PM.
Quoting 25. Grothar:



I told you before.


Sorry Gro I got short memory..
Quoting 50. 882MB:

Oh CaribBoy. ;)






Oh yeah! I haven't even noticed that !
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Low pressure dominates at the surface across most of the basin.
At 2100 UTC, a 1011 mb low is in the NW Gulf near 27N95W from
which a surface trough extends NE to 29N91W then E along 28N85W to
the northern Florida Peninsula near 29N81W. This area of low
pressure is beneath a broad upper level anticyclone, which
divergent flow support scattered showers from 24N to 29N between
87W and 95W and isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the
remainder trough axis. There is a low chance of this system to
develop within the next two days. Development of this system, if
any, should be slow to occur before it moves inland over Texas by
Saturday. Otherwise, isolated showers are across the Bay of
Campeche associated with a surface trough extending from 22N94W to
18N95W. Thereafter...gentle to moderate E-SE winds are
anticipated through the upcoming weekend as a surface ridge re-establishes
itself across the SE CONUS.
Quoting 85. JRRP7:




Yes!!!!
Quoting 179. pureet1948:



Could this be a historical weather event for Houston?
very unlikely...might see 2-4" some local spots maybe more. Just won't have enough time to organize alot before it comes into coast. But some good off and on soaking rain....but hey who can say for sure as systems in gulf can do some very crazy things.
Tropical Storm JULIA

11:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 15
Location: 31.5°N 77.1°W
Moving: ESE at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Quoting 178. Kowaliga:

Gettin' bizzzzzzeee guyz...


I am almost certain that will become TD13
Surprised at the error rate so far for forecasting Julia. Even at 24hrs they are 200 plus miles off yesterdays thinking.
Goes to show you how dynamic and fluid these things are and the reason to never take your eyes off of them.
Good evening, everyone

It's been an extremely hot week over here.

On September 15, 1995, Hurricane Marilyn arrived and devastated this island. I wasn't here then but the pictures and stories I hear are just horrifying. Needless to say, whenever I see those waves on the way here, I get a sick feeling inside, especially at this time of the year.

Link

The above link show a lot of the damage that was done.

Here's to light winds and rain!

Lindy
000
WTNT42 KNHC 160256
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016

During the past six hours, a significant increase in the amount and
the organization of the deep convection has occurred near and over
the well-defined low-level circulation center. The southwestern edge
of the cold cloud canopy, characterized by tops as cold as -89C, has
continued to expand southwestward over the center despite
southwesterly vertical wind shear of 20-25 kt. The initial intensity
has been increased to 40 kt based on a constrained Dvorak satellite
estimate of 35 kt form TAFB, but with a data T-number of T3.0/45 kt
using a shear pattern. A 15/2247Z partial ASCAT-B pass indicated
several 35-36 kt surface wind vectors in the northeastern quadrant
more than 60 nmi from the center. Based on continued improvement in
the satellite presentation since the ASCAT pass, the initial
intensity is set at 40 kt, making Karl the eleventh named storm of
the season.

Karl is moving westward or 275/11 kt. The cyclone is expected to
move westward and then west-southwestward around a strengthening
Atlantic subtropical ridge for the next 48-72 hours. After that
time, the ridge is forecast to weaken some, allowing Karl to turn
back toward the west and then west-northwest by day 5. The new NHC
forecast is essentially on top of the previous advisory track, and
lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCX and the Florida State
Superensemble model.

Karl is expected to remain in a moderate to strong vertical wind
shear environment for the next 36 hours or so, which should inhibit
significant intensification. After that time, however, the shear is
forecast to decrease to around 5 kt for the remainder of the
120-h period. That would normally result in more robust
strengthening while the cyclone is moving over 28-29C SSTs.
However, Karl will also be moving through a very dry mid-level
moisture regime during that time, so the intensification trend is
forecast to be much slower than the climatological rate of 20 kt
per day, and lies close to the SHIPS intensity forecast.

The large 34-kt wind radius in the northeastern quadrant is based on
the aforementioned ASCAT wind data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 17.9N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 18.0N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.8N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.5N 42.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 17.1N 47.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 17.8N 52.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 19.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

11-4-1

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016

During the past six hours, a significant increase in the amount and
the organization of the deep convection has occurred near and over
the well-defined low-level circulation center. The southwestern edge
of the cold cloud canopy, characterized by tops as cold as -89C, has
continued to expand southwestward over the center despite
southwesterly vertical wind shear of 20-25 kt. The initial intensity
has been increased to 40 kt based on a constrained Dvorak satellite
estimate of 35 kt form TAFB, but with a data T-number of T3.0/45 kt
using a shear pattern. A 15/2247Z partial ASCAT-B pass indicated
several 35-36 kt surface wind vectors in the northeastern quadrant
more than 60 nmi from the center. Based on continued improvement in
the satellite presentation since the ASCAT pass, the initial
intensity is set at 40 kt, making Karl the eleventh named storm of
the season.

Karl is moving westward or 275/11 kt. The cyclone is expected to
move westward and then west-southwestward around a strengthening
Atlantic subtropical ridge for the next 48-72 hours. After that
time, the ridge is forecast to weaken some, allowing Karl to turn
back toward the west and then west-northwest by day 5. The new NHC
forecast is essentially on top of the previous advisory track, and
lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCX and the Florida State
Superensemble model.

Karl is expected to remain in a moderate to strong vertical wind
shear environment for the next 36 hours or so, which should inhibit
significant intensification. After that time, however, the shear is
forecast to decrease to around 5 kt for the remainder of the
120-h period. That would normally result in more robust
strengthening while the cyclone is moving over 28-29C SSTs.
However, Karl will also be moving through a very dry mid-level
moisture regime during that time, so the intensification trend is
forecast to be much slower than the climatological rate of 20 kt
per day, and lies close to the SHIPS intensity forecast.

The large 34-kt wind radius in the northeastern quadrant is based on
the aforementioned ASCAT wind data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 17.9N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 18.0N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.8N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.5N 42.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 17.1N 47.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 17.8N 52.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 19.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016

...TROPICAL STORM KARL FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 32.5W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1930 MI...3105 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 32.5 West. Karl is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a motion toward
the west or west-southwest is expected for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km),
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
The stronger Karl gets, then there will be less probability of the islands and the US being affected. TBH I want a major hurricane like Gaston but stronger.
Karl is here 11-4-1


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016

During the past six hours, a significant increase in the amount and
the organization of the deep convection has occurred near and over
the well-defined low-level circulation center. The southwestern edge
of the cold cloud canopy, characterized by tops as cold as -89C, has
continued to expand southwestward over the center despite
southwesterly vertical wind shear of 20-25 kt. The initial intensity
has been increased to 40 kt based on a constrained Dvorak satellite
estimate of 35 kt form TAFB, but with a data T-number of T3.0/45 kt
using a shear pattern. A 15/2247Z partial ASCAT-B pass indicated
several 35-36 kt surface wind vectors in the northeastern quadrant
more than 60 nmi from the center. Based on continued improvement in
the satellite presentation since the ASCAT pass, the initial
intensity is set at 40 kt, making Karl the eleventh named storm of
the season.

Karl is moving westward or 275/11 kt. The cyclone is expected to
move westward and then west-southwestward around a strengthening
Atlantic subtropical ridge for the next 48-72 hours. After that
time, the ridge is forecast to weaken some, allowing Karl to turn
back toward the west and then west-northwest by day 5. The new NHC
forecast is essentially on top of the previous advisory track, and
lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCX and the Florida State
Superensemble model.

Karl is expected to remain in a moderate to strong vertical wind
shear environment for the next 36 hours or so, which should inhibit
significant intensification. After that time, however, the shear is
forecast to decrease to around 5 kt for the remainder of the
120-h period. That would normally result in more robust
strengthening while the cyclone is moving over 28-29C SSTs.
However, Karl will also be moving through a very dry mid-level
moisture regime during that time, so the intensification trend is
forecast to be much slower than the climatological rate of 20 kt
per day, and lies close to the SHIPS intensity forecast.

The large 34-kt wind radius in the northeastern quadrant is based on
the aforementioned ASCAT wind data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 17.9N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 18.0N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.8N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.5N 42.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 17.1N 47.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 17.8N 52.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 19.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
199. JRRP7
We now have Karl as per the NHC. Although I think there may be another blog hole?
We have Karl.
did I break the blog with my last post.....
203. JRRP7
INIT 16/0300Z 17.9N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 18.0N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.8N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.5N 42.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 17.1N 47.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 17.8N 52.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 19.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
Interesting
11-4-1...We have Tropical Storm Karl. Now I know you all remember the "Mailman" Karl Malone. One of the all-time great basketball player in the NBA.





the hard driver for this blog is really needs too get re place or some in has this is getting old
Karl is official.
207. IDTH
Anticyclone directly over the wave coming off Africa.

208. JRRP7
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
TS #Karl has formed in eastern Atlantic. We now have 3 active named storms in Atlantic for 1st time since 8/30/2012
Site is down yet again. For the record, I created a new blog and it is not showing up, so going to a personal blog during times like this is not going to work either.

It is the whole site, not just this blog.

Shame because there is going to be a lot to track the next few weeks.
Rol call!
Karl?
I am officially here!
So we have Ian, Julia and Karl, this reminds me of 2010 only with weaker version of themselves. in 2010 they were majors now they are only tropical storms. We will need to watch Karl though a cat 2 or cat 3 is not out of the question if conditions become favorable as models are predicting.
Quoting 152. birdsrock2016:

Keep in mind, although Florida's hurricane drought has ended, South Florida's hurricane drought is still at 11 years and counting , and each day is a valuable chance to prepare before the next big one hits South Florida
Are you jft?
Blog is down, again:(
Quoting 171. pureet1948:



But Loduck said we don't have anything to worry about according to the models. You disagree?
I have a bad feeling on this one.
Quoting 90. Loduck:

Ya, I remember when they started naming hurricanes with male names. For some weird reason I really didn't like it (maybe because I'm female idk). But, something I have wondered about is the dual names issued for TC's in the WPac for instance, Meranti also called Ferdie. Did the people in Asia call it Meranti or did they call it Ferdie (or did they call it something that I can't pronounce)?
Philippines call storms something different, e.g. Haiyan was called Yolanda, iirc.... I also remember when they started using men's names.... and we had David that year... first hurricane to hit the Bahamas in 10 years...,.
Quoting 203. JRRP7:

INIT 16/0300Z 17.9N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 18.0N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.8N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.5N 42.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 17.1N 47.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 17.8N 52.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 19.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
Interesting


More SOUTH please xD
217. skook
Karl is a now a hurricane????



(I'm sure it will become a hurricane before this comment will actually post to the blog, I know it's only a ts.)


On a terrible side note Link , the effects of Hermine are still being felt here, and there seems to be huge issues with transparency.
We'll see....Center is definitely outrunning the convection this hour.

Greetings Everyone!

It was refreshing to see that the designation/ classification of T.S. Karl was done promptly by the NHC, without the oft unreasonable delay & irrational hold on the upgrade of certain Tropical Atlantic systems.

Hopefully, the higher intensity forecasts for Karl do not materialize as it nears the islands in a few days.
Unfortunately Karl appears to be quite vigorous & seems to already have that pre- hurricane 'look'.
Let's see if and how soon Karl may actually deviate from the current official intensity forecast.

God Bless!
Uh... I'd say 3 NS and 2 invests implies a more active period....
Blog was broke before work, see it now, though the comments say still having probs:/

Anyway, Malakas' route has gone diff than I remember I'm sure. I don't remember it being forecast so far east and threatening Taiwan.


Always interesting photos of China when typhoons hit, seeing places I've never heard of, that look like huge cities. So, one of the not-main cities is like a mega-opolis itself!

I'm happier than Caribboy anyway right now. After a high of 87' this week and a very warm Sept so far, am looking at forecast highs under 70', and a few lows forecast in the high 40's...yes!

Oh, and hello Karl...wasn't even on the main page yet!
221. mitthbevnuruodo
3:52 AM GMT on September 16, 2016

40's Send to FL please :-)
I wonder if they will fix this website before this hurricane season is over? 11:00 pm
That only took 2 minutes to post...wow...
Go live with the weather channel and the farm goes to H***. Have to be prepared for the growth. Otherwise there is an active hacker about.
224 posted right way, I am impressed
Quoting 179. pureet1948:



Could this be a historical weather event for Houston?


Every weather event in Houston is historical.......they all get logged and recorded in some archive that future generations can go lookup in a historical record


GOTCHA !!!
Quoting 216. CaribBoy:



More SOUTH please xD


fish storm
When was the last time we had 3 named storms in the atlantic?
Quoting 188. kallenjrtx:

very unlikely...might see 2-4" some local spots maybe more. Just won't have enough time to organize alot before it comes into coast. But some good off and on soaking rain....but hey who can say for sure as systems in gulf can do some very crazy things.


Soaking rain? To be honest, I'd rather not see THAT!
Karl please be another 2010 Earl!!

If you really want to cross 20N 60W and stay 150miles north of me, then please be HUGE!
The ridge will dictate the truth.
Frankenblob about to depart Africa

Its only September 15, 2016:

We have 3 named tropical storms - Ian, Julia, and Karl - churning in the Atlantic Ocean - at the same time!


Quoting 229. Icybubba:

When was the last time we had 3 named storms in the atlantic?


2012
Guess you want a drought then?

Quoting 230. pureet1948:



Soaking rain? To be honest, I'd rather not see THAT!
Guess he was to lazy to read the previous posts?
On the same page, a few comments down!


Quoting 236. Grothar:



2012
Quoting 231. CaribBoy:

Karl please be another 2010 Earl!!

If you really want to cross 20N 60W and stay 150miles north of me, then please be HUGE!
It seems it will be. Replace the K by the E :)
Quoting 235. Stormwatch247:

Its only September 15, 2016:

We have 3 named tropical storms - Ian, Julia, and Karl - churning in the Atlantic Ocean - at the same time!





You need a life lol
Aaaannndd they're off...feel like an announcer at a dog or horse track. Greyhound dogs are one of my favorite breeds.

Quoting 178. Kowaliga:

Gettin' bizzzzzzeee guyz...



What's the big deal. They will both most likley be fish storms. So no worries.
Typhoon Warning is in effect for Yilan County, Hualien County, Taitung County, Ludao and Lanyu Islands of Taiwan.
From PAGASA

Signal Warning #1

Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
Light damage to medium to high risk structures
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height (Open Sea): 1.25-4.0 meters.

Luzon Region
----------------
1. Batanes
2. Northern Cagayan including Babuyan Group of Islands
Quoting 228. Hester122:



fish storm
Probably not
Right now...12 years ago...my life changed forever. #IVANtheTerrible!
i love it how it's down again edit:nvm, seemed like it, you can delete this comment.
Japan Meteorological Agency
15:00 PM JST September 16 2016
================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS

About 370 KM South Of Ishagaki Island (Okinawa Prefecture)
At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Malakas (950 hPa) located at 21.1N 123.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
180 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 24.9N 122.7E - 90 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) North Northwest Of Yonaguni Island
48 HRS: 27.3N 123.4E - 80 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) East China Sea
72 HRS: 28.5N 125.6E - 70 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) East China Sea
Seems like some moderate to heavy shower activity heading our way in the Central Lesser Antilles- where most of the 'action' generally tends to be...
It seems like a cut -off trough initially trailing actually all the way from a sort of 'convection tail' of T.S. Ian. Seems likely to give some rough weather in the least.

Blessings!

Ian going crazy on speed (55 mph!].

Stephanie's remnants. Will it reform?
this is getting ridiculous ... broke again.
Malakas really organizing and ramping up now, and if it doesn't keep turning as forecast, it's going to hit Taiwan as a Cat. 4, and go right over Taipei (though totally beaten up by the eastern mountains).

Link

Still, it's not going to be pleasant, or a safe thing at all, and Taiwan will be left trying to fix damage at both their southernmost, and now northernmost, big cities. I feel really bad for them, and wish them the best of luck.

Jo
Bye Karl. Go fishing like the previous ones :\
BORING season !
Quoting 253. NunoLava1998:


Stephanie's remnants. Will it reform?

Had a look at the models earlier: probably not.
But Stephanie's fronts finally broke the long lasting heatwave in western and central Europe. Yesterday evening for me mid Germany, too. There is even rain in the forecast, go figure! Some parts in Germany really need it:


Drought monitor for Germany (red= extreme/exceptional). And this after all the flooding in June!

And a good morning, everyone. It has been a busy night with newborn Karl, I see :-) May the storm be benign, and "Frankenblob" (lol, Grothar!) behind it as well ...
What is up with this blog!? So many time gaps!
Quoting 258. SecretStormNerd:

What is up with this blog!? So many time gaps!


Peeps still sleeping?
Quoting 244. HadesGodWyvern:

Typhoon Warning is in effect for Yilan County, Hualien County, Taitung County, Ludao and Lanyu Islands of Taiwan.
Wow. Two storms in a week....
8 people dead after typhoon that hit China, Taiwan
Inquirer, Associated Press, 02:55 PM September 16th, 2016

According to the latest disaster report from the Philippines from earlier this morning, still no communication with Itbayat. Several emergency devices and supplies on standby, though. And another night sets in :-(

Here a new photo gallery with pics of the damage elsewhere in the Batanes archipelago province.
LOOK: Typhoon Ferdie's trail of destruction in Batanes
ABS-CBN News, Posted at Sep 16 2016 05:06 PM
Quoting 259. daddyjames:



Peeps still sleeping?

I do believe it was down again. 3 hour gaps are definitely not the norm here. There are usually over 100 comments over night.
Quoting 259. daddyjames:



Peeps still sleeping?
Well I'm now awake.... LOL.... but I missed the gaps. Hope they get everything fixed today.

I gotta run, but will be keeping an eye on Julia and Karl. Both seem to have at the least some nuisance potential..... happy Friday!
CMC has been right about Karls since the beginning. Are the computer models changing like global warming? or just the CNC was right as an exception?
Quoting 261. barbamz:

8 people dead after typhoon that hit China, Taiwan
Inquirer, Associated Press, 02:55 PM September 16th, 2016

According to the latest disaster report from the Philippines from earlier this morning, still no communication with Itbayat. Several emergency devices and supplies on standby, though. And another night sets in :-(
You'd think by now they would have sent someone to see what is going on.....


Change your pic to a sunny day

Quoting 256. CaribBoy:

Bye Karl. Go fishing like the previous ones :\
BORING season !
morning all, this is from 5A NHC Discussion for Karl

The SSMIS data indicated that the center has moved a little north of previous position estimates, and the initial motion is now 280/11kt. Karl may gain a little more latitude during the next 12-24 hours, but after that time a strong subtropical ridge is expected to force the cyclone to move south of due west or possibly west-southwestward between 36-48 hours.

Once it reaches the western portion of the ridge and intensifies, Karl is likely to again gain
some latitude, turning west-northwestward by days 4 and 5. The track models all agree on this scenario and keep Karl well to the east and northeast of the Leeward Islands during the five-day
forecast period.

Mainly because of the adjustment in the initial position, the new NHC track forecast is a little north of the previous forecast, and it lies closest to an average of the GFS and ECMWF solutions.


Quoting 256. CaribBoy:

Bye Karl. Go fishing like the previous ones :\
BORING season !

All fish storms = perfect season for the Caribbean ! No death, destruction or disruption of lives. A couple more weeks and we should be good.
More news are coming out right now about the damage of Meranti in Batanes Islands. The locations mentioned below all belong to the southern islands of Batan and Sabtang - still nothing about Itbayat.

Batanes bishop appeals for ‘immediate’ help after devastating typhoon
MANILA, Sept. 16, 2016
Batanes is in “immediate” need after typhoon Ferdie (Meranti) devastated the island on Wednesday, a Catholic bishop said.
Batanes Bishop Camilo Gregorio said no casualties had been reported but the storm destroyed many houses, churches, schools and government structures.
“Please pray for us. We are devastated. We are safe but suffering,” Gregorio said.
He said the storm, packing peak winds of 250 kph, felled trees and cut power and communication lines, except the cellphone signal in the town of Uyugan.
“The typhoon also destroyed roofing of the cathedral, washed out rectory, damaged the St. Dominic College, blew roofs of Mahatao Church and damaged Sabtang convent,” Gregorio added.
As of Friday, all flights to Batanes remain cancelled as another terrifying storm is moving towards the island.
“We are still surviving but no government assistance at all yet,” he said.
The prelature is accepting donations from the public to help victims of the calamity.
Cash donations, he said, may be deposited to the BPI (JP Rizal branch) account of the Prelature of Batanes: 3751-0415-69.
He said the public may also contact the nearest Caritas offices or diocesan social action centers.
The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council has already sent a team to Batanes to assess the impact of the typhoon.
The entire province of Batanes was also put under the state of calamity on Thursday to allow local government units access to quick response funds. (Roy Lagarde/CBCPNews)
ECMWF model seems to have Karl pass directly over Bermuda as a category 4 hurricane.
Julia is just hanging about up there like a rotund sword of Damacles....


After Joaquin last year, well, let's just say I'm wary.....
good morning. still some turning with ex 92 but with no model support and lack of persistent convection seems like it will move harmlessly onto land.
a few days ago only the cmc had 93 developing into a depression.
Quoting 266. BahaHurican:

You'd think by now they would have sent someone to see what is going on.....

I've added newly released photos and news in comments #261 and 271 (btw, the catholic church is very important in the Philippines where nearly the whole population belongs to it; so the call for help from the bishop of Batanes is significant). Obviously it's not possible to communicate due to the lack of working lines and signals, and flights were impossible due to the winds of upcoming typhoon Malakas. Same may apply to boats, and probably a lot of them in those islands might have been destroyed by Meranti (my guess).

Dangers of sailing towards Itbayat even in normal times: Reaching It Is Only For The Brave (interesting read!)
Quoting 270. 2manytimes:


All fish storms = perfect season for the Caribbean ! No death, destruction or disruption of lives. A couple more weeks and we should be good.
i thought we agreed no negative terms like fish storm, shear, downgraded during the tropical season. could bring on dreaded tropical depresion to some of us
Good Morning Everyone
Drizzling Here In Wilmington NC Again This Morning.
Wonder What Our Storms Will Do Today That Will Entertain Us?
Quoting 261. barbamz:

8 people dead after typhoon that hit China, Taiwan
Inquirer, Associated Press, 02:55 PM September 16th, 2016

According to the latest disaster report from the Philippines from earlier this morning, still no communication with Itbayat. Several emergency devices and supplies on standby, though. And another night sets in :-(

Here a new photo gallery with pics of the damage elsewhere in the Batanes archipelago province.
LOOK: Typhoon Ferdie's trail of destruction in Batanes
ABS-CBN News, Posted at Sep 16 2016 05:06 PM



Amazes me that they can't even get a plane to do a fly over to see what the situation is for the 3000 people on that island. Surely we must have a carrier somewhere within range and can afford to send a couple of jets over it, perhaps drop off some communications gear at least.
280. JRRP7
NEXT!!!!!!
GFS is showing strong system
Quoting 279. rod2635:



Amazes me that they can't even get a plane to do a fly over to see what the situation is for the 3000 people on that island. Surely we must have a carrier somewhere within range and can afford to send a couple of jets over it, perhaps drop off some communications gear at least.

As much as I've read the relationship between the govt of the Philippines and the US hasn't been that great lately (not due to a fault of the latter). Maybe this has hampered any request for assistance.
Typhoon Ferdie: Batanes under state of calamity
The province does not have power, and communication lines are cut in the towns of Basco, Itbayat, and Mahatao,
Rappler, Raymond Dullana, Published 5:30 PM, September 16, 2016
Excerpt:
In a Facebook post, Rachel Ponce, Abad's aide who is a resident of Itbayat, pleaded for help as they have yet to contact some towns.
Ponce lamented the lack of media coverage on the aftermath of Ferdie in Batanes, saying the damage had left some town islands isolated. ...
"It is saddening that the Senate is receiving a huge media coverage while our countrymen in Itbayat are crying and worried of what had happened to our families in Itbayat Island." ...
"We have not received any communication from them for days. We are so worried. We just want to know if there are casualties, or if they are still alive. The eye of the typhoon passed through Itbayat. The last text we received is that their roofs were blown away and that they are already evacuating to those with concrete houses. Our plaza was flooded and that never happened before."
Ponce said they "badly" need attention because Batanes had never experienced a typhoon of such strength until then.
She said that since the C130 could not land in Itbayat, they are requesting a helicopter for the town.


Updates (looks like public attention in the Philippines is now increasing):

#ReliefPH: Batanes needs potable water, canned goods, fuel

'Ferdie' damages in Batanes pegged at P225 million

Facebook-site Help for Batanes/Itbayat


Good morning folks I see we have TS Karl. Seems like it has no interest in us but I can't help but wonder if we would at least get some rain. Seems unlikely though. Have a great day every one.

Quoting 275. islander101010:

a few days ago only the cmc had 93 developing into a depression.


Basin Scale HWRF from last Friday, 9/9 developed 93L


Quoting 276. barbamz:


I've added newly released photos and news in comments #261 and 271 (btw, the catholic church is very important in the Philippines where nearly the whole population belongs to it; so the call for help from the bishop of Batanes is significant). Obviously it's not possible to communicate due to the lack of working lines and signals, and flights were impossible due to the winds of upcoming typhoon Malakas. Same may apply to boats, and probably a lot of them in those islands might have been destroyed by Meranti (my guess).

In addtion, they have to deal with Malakas:


Quoting 281. barbamz:


As much as I've read the relationship between the govt of the Philippines and the US hasn't been that great lately (not due to a fault of the latter). Maybe this has hampered any request for assistance.


Sad when politics puts lives at unnecessary risk. Nothing new in that I suppose, but in this situation, every hour that goes by puts people, with no political agenda other than to live, at serious risk. I'm sure that diplomatic protocol dictates that one waits to be invited to assist, territorial sovereignty, air space rights, proximity to land rules at sea, etc. to be observed. By the time the engraved invitations and responses are received, it will be a post mortem exercise for many innocent souls.
Quoting 280. JRRP7:

NEXT!!!!!!
GFS is showing strong system



Until it drops it :(
for west central florida our season really starts now thru november.....
Quoting 283. wadadlian:

Good morning folks I see we have TS Karl. Seems like it has no interest in us but I can't help but wonder if we would at least get some rain. Seems unlikely though. Have a great day every one.




It's a fish we won't get anything but annoyance (dry air and sweels).
Quoting 283. wadadlian:

Good morning folks I see we have TS Karl. Seems like it has no interest in us but I can't help but wonder if we would at least get some rain. Seems unlikely though. Have a great day every one.




I wouldn't mark it as a fish just yet. The strength of the incoming subtropical ridge should give us a clearer picture of whether it will threaten the US.
read the forcast discuson for neworleans they are concerned that the remnants of julia are coming there late in the period, whats up with that?
Quoting 289. CaribBoy:



It's a fish we won't get anything but annoyance (dry air and sweels).

Keep hope alive. If not this one....maybe, just maybe another......
Strengthening systems turn poleward, I think Julia might be the one to create a weakness and kick Karl out to sea but it is too early to know for sure.

Quoting 291. Tampa969mlb:

read the forcast discuson for neworleans they are concerned that the remnants of julia are coming there late in the period, whats up with that?


Maverick storm wants to loop around and buzz the tower
The all important rain will always be desired
Quoting 275. islander101010:

a few days ago only the cmc had 93 developing into a depression.


That's not saying much because the CMC usually develops everything. So you really have no clue if you should trust it.
Good Morning Folks; 3 tropical storms in the Atlantic on Sept 16th, Julia moving away from the Coast, no tropical development in the Gulf, and (again), no majors threatening the Caribbean or US so far going into the 11th year. The end of the active AMO or/or something else going on in terms of no major threats to the Caribbean or Conus due to the anomalous dry air issues, and the lack of a very healthy ITCZ , between Africa and the Caribbean, during the last several peak periods?






%uFFFD%uFFFD
I've emailed the WU admin about the blog problem and no response.Either they're about to pull the plug on the blog or all the budget went to the show "WxGeeks".
299. MahFL
Quoting 297. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks; 3 tropical storms in the Atlantic on Sept 16th, Julia moving away from the Coast, no tropical development in the Gulf, and (again), no majors threatening the Caribbean or US so far going into the 10th year. ..


I believe it's actually 11 years.
Quoting 235. Stormwatch247:

Its only September 15, 2016:

We have 3 named tropical storms - Ian, Julia, and Karl - churning in the Atlantic Ocean - at the same time!





Quoting 241. oceanspringsMS:



You need a life lol



LOL ... I do have a life watching all of the storms in the Atlantic. : )

1 week ago, some people on here were complaining about the lack of named storms in the Atlantic.

Well, here you go! 3 Named tropical storms formed within 1 week.

And the unpredictable JULIA, .... she formed into a named tropical storm while the center was over land, near Jacksonville, FL.

And we might be adding a possible "Lisa" to the list.


12 years ago, Hurricane Ivan slammed the Gulf Coast.



Quoting 299. MahFL:



I believe it's actually 11 years.


Thanks; even more remarkable........................................ Quite a departure from the slew of majors that we used to see plow into the Caribbean and/or Central America or Conus on a pretty frequent basis (across all Enso periods) in the 20 some year period between 1992 and 2005.
Quoting 298. washingtonian115:

I've emailed the WU admin about the blog problem and no response.Either they're about to pull the plug on the blog or all the budget went to the show "WxGeeks".


i think there getting ready too pull the plug the blog issue has really gone down hill over the year and it seems like no one has fix it or too lazy to do so
Quoting 289. CaribBoy:



It's a fish we won't get anything but annoyance (dry air and sweels).



you need too moved too the W PAC and you will have no issue at all you will be happy has a bate has you will have strong Typhoons at your door step some may be vary power full
Quoting 298. washingtonian115:

I've emailed the WU admin about the blog problem and no response.Either they're about to pull the plug on the blog or all the budget went to the show "WxGeeks".


WU and The Weather Channel are owned by separate companies, Link. I think they are devoting their resources to the mobile apps and social media, so the blogs are an afterthought. All started downhill when WunderYakuza left.
Quoting 276. barbamz:


I've added newly released photos and news in comments #261 and 271 (btw, the catholic church is very important in the Philippines where nearly the whole population belongs to it; so the call for help from the bishop of Batanes is significant). Obviously it's not possible to communicate due to the lack of working lines and signals, and flights were impossible due to the winds of upcoming typhoon Malakas. Same may apply to boats, and probably a lot of them in those islands might have been destroyed by Meranti (my guess).

Dangers of sailing towards Itbayat even in normal times (interesting read!)
I checked out the island on google earth and there is literally nothing there but a tiny airport strip and a few buildings pretty close to it and it was well inland (not that it mattered seeing as the whole island was in the eye of Meranti). It is my understanding that there is/was about 3000 residents living there. I don't understand why the Phillipine gov't. couldn't send a helicopter over there to check on the welfare of the residents that live there?? Maybe none (helicopters) survived close enough to be able to do that?
Quoting 304. nrtiwlnvragn:



WU and The Weather Channel are owned by separate companies, Link. I think they are devoting their resources to the mobile apps and social media, so the blogs are an afterthought. All started downhill when WunderYakuza left.



yep agreed
Connectoblob

Quoting 307. Grothar:

Connectoblob




The Gulf Stream will do that.............................................. .........

the cen atlantic putting a hurting on karl
Quoting 289. CaribBoy:



It's a fish we won't get anything but annoyance (dry air and sweels).
One of these days you will get what you want...and then you won't be wishing for another-if you survive
AL, 11, 2016091612, , BEST, 0, 311N, 758W, 35, 1008, TS,


moveing due S been doing so since last night would be nic too get a recon in there
Maybe the Russians are hacking and disrupting into this site also.............................................. .... :)
Newer models coming out shortly

drop a cow on weather underground
Quoting 307. Grothar:

Connectoblob




Kinda looks like a fish blowing a bubble.
Quoting 303. thetwilightzone:




you need too moved too the W PAC and you will have no issue at all you will be happy has a bate has you will have strong Typhoons at your door step some may be vary power full
The trouble with Caribbean is, they get a lot of their water from the rain these storms bring, so if the storms are not entering the Caribbean, then they will experience droughts. So the storms are actually good for the Caribbean, Florida, and the Southeast U.S.
test 123
Quoting 300. Stormwatch247:

Quoting 235. Stormwatch247:

Its only September 15, 2016:

We have 3 named tropical storms - Ian, Julia, and Karl - churning in the Atlantic Ocean - at the same time!







LOL ... I do have a life watching all of the storms in the Atlantic. : )

1 week ago, some people on here were complaining about the lack of named storms in the Atlantic.

Well, here you go! 3 Named storms within 1 week.

And the unpredictable JULIA, .... she formed into a named tropical storm while the center was over land, near Jacksonville, FL.

And we might be adding a possible "Lisa" to the list.


12 years ago, Hurricane Ivan slammed the Gulf Coast.





Not complaining about the lack of named storms so much... we're just complaining and dying for a land storm... specifically a major hurricane we can salivate over that has a legitimate and likely chance of a Florida and/or GOM hit...
Quoting 313. Grothar:

Newer models coming out shortly




Mikes Weather Page usually post the spaghettis pretty quickly also
Good morning, folks.

Today is September 16, 2016.

8 days until the 11th anniversary of Hurricane Rita, AKA the Forgotten Hurricane.
Karl due to hit the weakness in the ridge around 55-60 deg. Julia in a weak steering current.

Quoting 320. DakZekeDez:


Not complaining about the lack of named storms so much... we're just complaining and dying for a land storm... specifically a major hurricane we can salivate over that has a legitimate and likely chance of a Florida and/or GOM hit...
I think you're the only one salivating for a major to hit a land area.
325. MrHul
Quoting 320. DakZekeDez:


Not complaining about the lack of named storms so much... we're just complaining and dying for a land storm... specifically a major hurricane we can salivate over that has a legitimate and likely chance of a Florida and/or GOM hit...


Why would you want a major landfalling hurricane? I like fish storms, good waves, cooler temps, nice breezes.
Quoting 298. washingtonian115:

I've emailed the WU admin about the blog problem and no response.Either they're about to pull the plug on the blog or all the budget went to the show "WxGeeks".


I hope this isn't the case. I'd hate to lose this blog - too much good information
Train derails after landslide as heavy rain causes UK travel chaos
Half a month's rain falls in a few hours, flooding roads, homes and stations, and leading to derailment near Watford
Guardian, Friday 16 September 2016 08.52 BST
A landslide resulting from torrential rain has caused a train to derail injuring two people, after half a month's rain fell in a few hours and caused travel chaos across the UK. ...

Indonesia issues fatwa against forest fires
DW, September 14, 2016
Indonesia's leading Islamic clerical body has issued a fatwa against the willful starting of forest fires in a bid to prevent the choking haze that smothered it and neighboring countries last year. ...
Quoting 320. DakZekeDez:


Not complaining about the lack of named storms so much... we're just complaining and dying for a land storm... specifically a major hurricane we can salivate over that has a legitimate and likely chance of a Florida and/or GOM hit...


Have to ask...have you ever been through a major hurricane strike? I'm guessing that the answer is "no" , since most of us who have know better than to wish to experience it again! And while wishes won't impact anything, you still might want to be careful what you wish for!
Why the hell would you want a landfalling major
Quoting 323. Grothar:

Karl due to hit the weakness in the ridge around 55-60 deg. Julia in a weak steering current.



If I am not mistaken, Julia based on that will head back to Florida?
Quoting 329. Icybubba:

Why the hell would you want a landfalling major


Probly never been through a major as Fran was. My 16 year old wants to be in a major also. I told him I hope the closest he ever gets to one is when he becomes an adult and goes chasing. Im in Wilmington NC
Quoting 330. Icybubba:


If I am not mistaken, Julia based on that will head back to Florida?


More models are hinting at that, but it could easily become a remnant low and be move to the northeast .
Quoting 316. thetwilightzone:

drop a cow on weather underground

Mooo!
That`s the easy part of the forecast: what`s much tougher is
determining what will happen with Tropical Storm Julia. Strong
westerly shear across the top of the storm has so far kept it from
strengthening despite being located across warm Gulf Stream waters.
This shear is expected to weaken by Sunday as the upper ridge moves
across the cyclone. Will there be enough vertical organization left
to the storm for it to strengthen then? The ultimate motion of Julia
will depend heavily on how much convection there is near the center
since a shallow system would get pushed back toward the coast while
a deeper storm would likely remain out to sea. Among the global
models we get in AWIPS, only the Canadian is suggesting
significant strengthening will occur with Julia.

FROM WILMINGTON NC NWS
336. WPBFL
Quoting 320. DakZekeDez:


Not complaining about the lack of named storms so much... we're just complaining and dying for a land storm... specifically a major hurricane we can salivate over that has a legitimate and likely chance of a Florida and/or GOM hit...


It's all fun and games until you lose power, your house gets damaged, someone gets hurt, etc
Quoting 334. Llamaluvr:


Mooo!


This whole cow thing is udder nonsense.
Quoting 326. hurricanehanna:



I hope this isn't the case. I'd hate to lose this blog - too much good information


If the blogs were to be removed I'd suggest blogging on storm2k.org. The same group of folks that blog here can also be found there.
Quoting 337. GeoffreyWPB:



This whole cow thing is udder nonsense.
That made me laugh!
Quoting 320. DakZekeDez:


Not complaining about the lack of named storms so much... we're just complaining and dying for a land storm... specifically a major hurricane we can salivate over that has a legitimate and likely chance of a Florida and/or GOM hit...


I'm pretty, fairly certainly certain a shockingly large amount of people would actually agree with this and not care much to admit it. I've been like that for years though now that I'm a little older I have become somewhat tempered to that want and just kinda roll with what is there.
Quoting 338. CybrTeddy:



If the blogs were to be removed I'd suggest blogging on storm2k.org. The same group of folks that blog here can also be found there.

Thanks Cybr :)
Quoting 309. islander101010:

the cen atlantic putting a hurting on karl


Good news. But only if that hurting takes it further south.
Quoting 340. George1938:



I'm pretty, fairly certainly certain a shockingly large amount of people would actually agree with this and not care much to admit it. I've been like that for years though now that I'm a little older I have become somewhat tempered to that want and just kinda roll with what is there.
It's probably true, idiots abound. Especially those that quote the newest troll to the blog. Congrats on becoming tempered, what on earth did you do before that happened?
Thank you for the information.

Quoting 314. Grothar:


I've been seeing a lot of people complaining about the blog being down lately. Another alternative is Accuweather. They were affiliated with the Weather Channel before wunderground. They also have a tropical forum/blog and I've been a member there for years.

h ttp://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showforum=4 8

Link

Quoting 343. southernstorm:

It's probably true, idiots abound. Especially those that quote the newest troll to the blog. Congrats on becoming tempered, what on earth did you do before that happened?


I have literally just talked to people around and some honestly think that 'idea' is really cool is what I am saying. If you look around in general there are a lot of 'interesting' individuals. But before that *tips head to the side* I needed two glasses of warm milk before bed if something was around.
Quoting 345. CW7859:

I've been seeing a lot of people complaining about the blog being down lately. Another alternative is Accuweather. They were affiliated with the Weather Channel before wunderground. They also have a tropical forum/blog and I've been a member there for years.

lol ...that'll stop most of the complaining. :) Prepare to receive partisan protests!
Is there anyone very computer oriented that can make a list of users name and e mails, just in case the blog make "poof". Maybe all together can create one.
Quoting 341. hurricanehanna:


Thanks Cybr :)


You're welcome. These random and often prolonged blog holes the last few months are pretty concerning. I've been considering a move to storm2k.org for a few years now given the much stronger moderation. I mean no offense to the moderation team here who does the best with what they can, however it's unacceptable for there to be users who have made dozens upon dozens of new accounts to circumnavigate bans for years to antagonize members and to rile up the blog as a whole. The recent site issues are enforcing the idea of moving for me.
Quoting 337. GeoffreyWPB:



This whole cow thing is udder nonsense.


Your just milking things now.
Quoting 343. southernstorm:

It's probably true, idiots abound. Especially those that quote the newest troll to the blog. Congrats on becoming tempered, what on earth did you do before that happened?
Because those that are new or casually lurking will get the general idea that we all want a major to hit a high populated area.I spoke up to let others know that not everyone agrees with the trolls thinking.
Quoting 316. thetwilightzone:

drop a cow on weather underground


Please if they happens, ya'll need to let me know where to go. I will have blog withdrawals.....I can't live without ya'll.....
Loop De Loop!

Quoting 349. thetwilightzone:



drop a cow on GeoffreyWPB


Don't have a cow, Taz. :)
Malakas has surpassed 200 km/hr; expected to get greater.
357. 7544
is julia drifting south and getting more convection around the spin? tia hmmm
Quoting 320. DakZekeDez:


Not complaining about the lack of named storms so much... we're just complaining and dying for a land storm... specifically a major hurricane we can salivate over that has a legitimate and likely chance of a Florida and/or GOM hit...
Don't worry, you will get one soon enough.
Yeah, they're really milking it.

Quoting 337. GeoffreyWPB:



This whole cow thing is udder nonsense.
Stu Ostro ‏@StuOstro 13m
3 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, all with asymmetric convection displaced from the center
lol you guys really need too learn too check my commits be for you quote them and see if they got updated or if i re moved them
Quoting 362. washingtonian115:

Stu Ostro ‏@StuOstro 13m
3 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, all with asymmetric convection displaced from the center


make that only 2
365. MahFL
Quoting 320. DakZekeDez:


Not complaining about the lack of named storms so much... we're just complaining and dying for a land storm... specifically a major hurricane we can salivate over that has a legitimate and likely chance of a Florida and/or GOM hit...


We have plenty of named storms, what are you talking about ?
Quoting 320. DakZekeDez:


Not complaining about the lack of named storms so much... we're just complaining and dying for a land storm... specifically a major hurricane we can salivate over that has a legitimate and likely chance of a Florida and/or GOM hit...


I live in Florida and trust me, I do not want a major hurricane in my area. Tropical storms are fun, even then Hermine has left misery in Pasco County.
bye Karl enjoy the fish! next.......
Yep, and it looks like Karl's gonna lie with the fishes now....

Quoting 321. K8eCane:



Mikes Weather Page usually post the spaghettis pretty quickly also
Conditions will become very favourable for Karl in the not too distant future. Shear of less than 10kts, SSTs of 29C+ and a moister environment. Wouldn't be surprised if it goes under RI at some point.
I smell teen mutiny


🌞🌎
OMG Karl is more and more a fish according to nhc :\\

Track continues to shift N and E :\\\
Quoting 369. Envoirment:

Conditions will become very favourable for Karl in the not too distant future. Shear of less than 10kts, SSTs of 29C+ and a moister environment. Wouldn't be surprised if it goes under RI at some point.


If that point was 16N 55W it would be fine. :(
And of course GEFS and EURO are not excited about the long range storm supposed to approach the islands
StormW is two days behind or I have the wrong address. Can you please let me know?

Quoting 371. tropicofcancer:

I say we all join StormW's blog where we'll get to see Karl hump the ridge. ( Just a word of caution for you ladies: Keep your shoes on!!!)


Just in fun, CaribBoy - you do complain a lot.

However, if I couldn't handle you, I would put you on ignore - and I haven't.

And I hope your island gets some much-needed rain this season.

(For those who don't know, St. Barthelemy is the real name of the island with the nickname "St. Barts".)
Does anyone notice how all the tropical systems that have made landfall in the US so far this year (Bonnie, Colin, Hermine, Julia) have decently impacted coastal SC?
Quoting 320. DakZekeDez:


Not complaining about the lack of named storms so much... we're just complaining and dying for a land storm... specifically a major hurricane we can salivate over that has a legitimate and likely chance of a Florida and/or GOM hit...
Why on Earth would you wish for such a thing? Nothing wrong with images of a nice big hurricane out at sea. But a landfalling major hurricane causes death, destruction, displacement and misery.
This morning Tropical Storm Karl looks like garbage as it continues to struggle trying to fight off the ever present windshear which has plagued the Atlantic Basin for the last several years. I expect this storm to get ripped apart and then sucked out into the NorthAtlantic graveyard for fishstorms which is what this system is going to become. Sorry guys, but another one is about to bite the dust or should I say, dry air.
Quoting 362. washingtonian115:

Stu Ostro ‏@StuOstro 13m
3 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, all with asymmetric convection displaced from the center


2016- the year for developmentally challenged tropical storms.
Quoting 320. DakZekeDez:


Not complaining about the lack of named storms so much... we're just complaining and dying for a land storm... specifically a major hurricane we can salivate over that has a legitimate and likely chance of a Florida and/or GOM hit...


Ok, you want to experience a major? I'll save you some time. Just put everything you own into a large pile. I'll gather some friends together to come relieve themselves on it and all your carpet after I soak everything including all your walls with a firehouse. That should emulate the storm surge/sewage backup effect. Please try not to forget to include your cherished family photos in that pile. Then we'll break all your windows, cut your power, pour water on your cell phone, and arrange for some insurance agents to be indifferent and underpay or ignore your claim. We'll make sure you have MRE's to eat, and don't forget to boil your water. Don't touch your fridge for at least a week. You don't get to join the hurricane club until you wrestle a putrid fridge. Will also arrange for several scared dogs to be set loose around your property - try not to get bit. I feel like I'm forgetting something... maybe some callous random commentary on news sites about how you shouldn't have lived there in the first place?
Quoting 209. Hurricanes101:

Site is down yet again. For the record, I created a new blog and it is not showing up, so going to a personal blog during times like this is not going to work either.

It is the whole site, not just this blog.

Shame because there is going to be a lot to track the next few weeks.


Feel free to post at Tropical Watch - I started that forum to be that place when Wunderground can't handle stuff
Quoting 336. WPBFL:



It's all fun and games until you lose power, your house gets damaged, someone gets hurt, etc


Nope. I get upset when this happens to anyone, not just me
Ignore button getting a workout this week.

Julia makes me nervous. Still too much energy in the Gulf if it were to loop.
Quoting 379. AGWcreationists:

Why on Earth would you wish for such a thing? Nothing wrong with images of a nice big hurricane out at sea. But a landfalling major hurricane causes death, destruction, displacement and misery.

Trollers troll, that's what they do...best not to feed them.
Quoting 379. AGWcreationists:

Why on Earth would you wish for such a thing? Nothing wrong with images of a nice big hurricane out at sea. But a landfalling major hurricane causes death, destruction, displacement and misery.


There are innumerous reasons/advantages for liking/wishing such things (e.g.: big waves for surfers; cleaner rivers; opening up [having older structures demolished] new areas/possibilities; etc.).
Typhoon Malakas should be listed as a Cat. 4 system by the next update. Won't stay that long though as the eastern mountains of Taiwan begin to shred the western quadrant apart. Still an impressive storm and a lot of added rain that some eastern regions don't need at this point after receiving 20 - 30 inches from Meranti.
Poll time: with it being the latter half of the 2010s and still no major hurricanes hitting the United States yet this decade, the 2010s will end as being the first decade in recorded history without a major land falling hurricane to hit
A) yes
B) no
I go with B because that would be an almost slim likelihood and there is no precedent for such a thing
392. MahFL
Quoting 379. AGWcreationists:

Why on Earth would you wish for such a thing? Nothing wrong with images of a nice big hurricane out at sea. But a landfalling major hurricane causes death, destruction, displacement and misery.


Yes but it makes for a better story, how the people, the gov react to adversity. A major hurricane hitting Miami would be a monumental disaster.
394. 7544
is julia drifting more south ? tia
IMO: With sufficient legit commentary (here), the random troll is easily tolerated. Lacking the former, the latter becomes a bit more obstreperous.
I'm confused. Is Karl expected to be a "fish" storm, or is he expected to head nw until he reached the ridge and then head west?

Good day to you all!
There is a lot of shear affecting Karl right now. Since the GFS and others are calling for a strong storm earlier, which might be caught by the weakness in the ridge around 55-65 deg, it is possible there may be a weaker system and miss the weakness. In that case, Karl would make more of a westerly track north of the Antilles. This could affect the mid or upper east coast of the US or even Bermuda. Not quite a fish yet. Don't always look at a model 10 days out and expect to know exactly what a system is going to do.

If Julia is not caught by the low to bring it to the northeast, it could very well be heading back to near north Florida as some of the models are hinting at.
GFS has shown Julia making a NE Fl. landfall two runs in a row. Is it a realistic possibility? We got some good rain the last time and could use another good soaking, but no canes.
Quoting 394. 7544:

is julia drifting more south ? tia


SE
Quoting 383. mojofearless:



Ok, you want to experience a major? I'll save you some time. Just put everything you own into a large pile. I'll gather some friends together to come relieve themselves on it and all your carpet after I soak everything including all your walls with a firehouse. That should emulate the storm surge/sewage backup effect. Please try not to forget to include your cherished family photos in that pile. Then we'll break all your windows, cut your power, pour water on your cell phone, and arrange for some insurance agents to be indifferent and underpay or ignore your claim. We'll make sure you have MRE's to eat, and don't forget to boil your water. Don't touch your fridge for at least a week. You don't get to join the hurricane club until you wrestle a putrid fridge. Will also arrange for several scared dogs to be set loose around your property - try not to get bit. I feel like I'm forgetting something... maybe some callous random commentary on news sites about how you shouldn't have lived there in the first place?


This will just get him more excited and he will want a storm that much more. I don't see how you guys don't understand that.
whats not for get ex 92L



Quoting 396. CCSoFLA79:

I'm confused. Is Karl expected to be a "fish" storm, or is he expected to head nw until he reached the ridge and then head west?

Good day to you all!



whats wait and see what happens when and if the storm gets too 55W right now its too early too tell what will happen with it
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Maybe the weatha bunka is still open ?

LoL


🌚
I have been with wunderground for many years and read the comments and refer others to this site.
But todays comments asking for a Major Hurricane to hit land is awful,horrible and just plan sick minded.
Also what is the fish and cow stuff?
Please return to the Wonderful comments and maps that really help us keep informed. Thank you for listening and your posts. You are very Appreciated.
Quoting 388. Uragani:



There are innumerous reasons/advantages for liking/wishing such things (e.g.: big waves for surfers; cleaner rivers; opening up [having older structures demolished] new areas/possibilities; etc.).
...and don't forget the reduction in population -right? (sc)
Quoting 409. JNFlori30A:

...and don't forget the reduction in population -right? (sc)


Is that advantageous?
Quoting 409. JNFlori30A:

...and don't forget the reduction in population -right? (sc)


Been my experience that those who wish for calamity the most,have never experienced it in any form.

412. JRRP
Quoting 287. CaribBoy:



Until it drops it :(

yeah... like 12z run
lol