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Fred Weakens after Lashing Cape Verde Islands

By: Bob Henson 4:21 PM GMT on September 01, 2015

Tropical Storm Fred, downgraded from hurricane status on Monday night, carved its way into the record books as it made the most direct hurricane strike on the Cape Verde islands in modern records. Fred has since weakened while plowing into a large batch of dry, dusty Saharan air. As of 11:00 am EDT Tuesday, Fred was located about 250 miles northwest of the islands, with top sustained winds down to 50 mph. The National Hurricane Center expects that Fred will continue to steadily weaken over the next couple of days as it moves northwestward.

At its height, Fred boasted prominent spiral banding, and microwave data revealed a well-defined eye, although it was mostly cloud-covered in visible satellite imagery. Although it appears that Fred’s center did not make a landfall on any of the islands, it came within roughly 20 miles of the northeastern island of Boa Vista and the northwestern islands of Sao Nicolau and Santo Antau, so Fred’s eyewall may have affected each of these areas. Boa Vista was on the stronger right-hand side of the storm, whereas Sao Nicolau and Santo Antau fell on the weaker left-hand side of Fred. Either way, many residents unaccustomed to extreme weather could have experienced very strong winds and heavy rain. Several weather stations on the islands did not report at the height of the storm, so our picture of what happened is still incomplete. Arlindo Lima, president of the National Civil Protection Service for the Republic of Cabo Verde (the nation’s official name in all languages since 2013) reported that Boa Visa and Sal, both north of Fred’s track, were the hardest-hit islands, with about 120 islanders displaced to a shelter. The nation’s airports were closed ahead of Fred’s arrival. Reports and photos on a Facebook page dedicated to Boa Vista suggest widespread but mostly minor damage, with trees and communication towers knocked down. There were no reports of casualties as of early Tuesday, according to an AFP update. Storm surge expert Hal Needham (Louisiana State University) was not expecting the surge from Fred to be extreme, since the hurricane had not had much time as a tropical cyclone to push large amounts of water ahead of it. The Cape Verde news site A Naca reported flooding related to Fred in the West African republic of Guinea-Bissau, with flooding and some evacuations in the capital city of Bissau. (Thanks to WU member barbamz for several of the websites above, translated via Google Translate.)


Figure 1. Official positions for Hurricane Fred, as provided by the National Hurricane Center, suggest that the hurricane wove its way around the northern Cape Verde islands without making a complete landfall, although Fred’s eyewall may have affected several islands. Image generated by WU’s Storm app for iPad.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Hurricane Fred from NASA's Terra satellite, taken at approximately 11:15 am EDT on Monda,y August 31, 2015. At the time, Fred had top sustained winds of 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. “Hot towers” (orange) extending up to 52,000 feet (16.2 km) were evident near the center of intensifying Tropical Storm Fred at 0236 GMT Sunday, August 30 (10:36 pm EDT Saturday), not long after it had moved off the west coast of Africa. As NASA’s Global Precipitation Mission satellite examined the developing Fred, it found rainfall occurring at close to 128 mm (5.0 inches) per hour within the hot towers. Fast-growing Fred was designated as a tropical depression about three hours after this image was collected; it became a tropical storm at 5:00 am EDT Sunday and a hurricane at 2:00 am EDT Monday. Credit: NASA/JAXA/SSAI, Hal Pierce


Fred the record-setter
Fred’s arrival led to a “fountain of ‘firsts’,” as Capital Weather Gang put it. Among them:

--Fred was the easternmost hurricane to develop in the tropical Atlantic in NOAA’s HURDAT database, which extends back to 1851. (These records are less complete and reliable prior to the advent of satellite monitoring in the 1960s.) Fred was dubbed a hurricane at 2:00 am EDT Sunday while at 15.3°N, 22.5°W. During the record-setting 2005 Atlantic season, Hurricane Vince actually formed further east than Fred (18.9°W), but at a much higher latitude (34.1°N).

--Fred made the closest approach to a Cape Verde island of any hurricane in the HURDAT database. The only other hurricane to affect the islands, other than glancing blows from well to the south, was an unnamed 1892 storm that moved between the two clusters of islands that makes up the Republic of Cabo Verde. As Jeff Masters and I noted yesterday, independent hurricane scholar Mike Chenoweth has identified the most damaging storm known to affect the islands: an apparent hurricane on September 2, 1850 (predating the HURDAT database) that reportedly destroyed more than 600 homes and wiped out crops. See our Monday post for more details from Mike’s research.

--The Cape Verde islands were under their first-ever official hurricane warning on Monday.

--Courtesy of Fred, we now have the first satellite images ever collected of a hurricane over the Cape Verde islands.


New tropical wave expected to emerge from Africa on Thursday
A tropical wave currently over west-central Africa is expected to move off the coast of Africa on Thursday, at a location a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde islands. The Tuesday morning runs of the GFS model predicted some slow development of this wave late in the week as it moves west at 15 - 20 mph towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. Our other two reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European and UKMET models, depicted an atmosphere with higher wind shear, and little or no development of the new tropical wave. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively.


Pacific staying busy
Several potent tropical cyclones are racking up the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) across the Pacific, even as El Niño continues to keep the Atlantic relatively suppressed. Accumulated cyclone energy, or "ACE," is used to express the activity and destructive potential of individual tropical cyclones and entire tropical cyclone seasons. ACE is calculated as the square of the wind speed every 6 hours, and is then scaled by a factor of 10,000 for usability. For the Northern Hemisphere as a whole, the total ACE (now more than 500 units) is far ahead of any other year through August 31, according to WU contributor Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University). The previous record-holder, 2004, had a total of 389 ACE units by this point. The record for an entire year was 853 ACE units, achieved in 1992.


Figure 4. Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) through August 31 for each year up since reliable records began in 1971 in the Northeast Pacific. Image credit: Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University.

Most of this year’s amazing ACE can be attributed to a number of typhoons and hurricanes in the North Pacific that have been both powerful and long-lived. From Saturday into Sunday, Hurricane Kilo, Hurricane Ignacio, and Hurricane Jimena were all at Category 4 strength--the first time since the satellite era began in the 1960s that three simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes had existed in the waters of the Eastern Pacific, east of the International Date Line. Ignacio continues to slowly decline as it heads northwest of Hawaii, while Jimena—now in its fourth day as a major hurricane—should weaken only gradually as it moves northward well east of Hawaii. A new system in the Northeast Pacific, Tropical Depression 14-E, is expected to become a minimal tropical storm at best as its heads toward Baja California.

For sheer longevity, Hurricane Kilo--which will become Typhoon Kilo when it crosses the Date Line over the next few hours--appears to be going for the gold. Today (September 1) is Kilo’s 12th day as a tropical cyclone and third day as a major hurricane. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center keeps Kilo as a major tropical cyclone for the next five days as it drifts across the open North Pacific, restrengthening from Category 3 to Category 4 levels by Day 3. Klotzbach notes that the ECMWF model keeps Kilo going as a strong tropical cyclone for at least 10 more days, possibly challenging the record of about 11 total days that Hurricane Ioke racked up as a major tropical cyclone. According to the National Hurricane Center, the longest-lived tropical cyclone in the satellite era is Hurricane/Typhoon John, which was tracked for 31 days during August and September 1994. In the Atlantic, the record-holder is 1971’s Hurricane Ginger (28 days).

Phil Klotzbach has much more on the record-setting Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season in a two-part Weather Underground blog entry posted on August 25 and August 28.

We’ll have our next post on Wednesday.

Bob Henson





Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you, Bob, Barbamz shoutout!
Thanks, Bob. Kilo looks to be one of those storms that won't die. Hawaii has been extremely lucky so far to escape all these powerful storms. I thought Nadine (2012) was the longest lived Atlantic cyclone, forming on September 10 and going extratropical on October 4. There's probably some caveat I'm missing though.

BTW, is WU ever going to fix the ghost 90L that keeps showing up as forming in 1969?
All quiet on the NW FL coast... a very nice start to September 2015. Have happy, healthy and productive day everyone!

Quoting 1. redwagon:

Thank you, Bob, Barbamz shoutout!
She works hard finding all those links. She deserves some recognition.
Quoting 4. sar2401:

She works hard finding all those links. She deserves some recognition.


Indeed she does! Glad there's not a EuroWU to steal her away!
So your saying we won't see anymore systems this year. Ok. We're finished.
Quoting 3. JNFlori30A:

All quiet on the NW FL coast... a very nice start to September 2015. Have happy, healthy and productive day everyone!




Yep, summer chugs along in NW Florida. Looks like some rain might dampen our Labor Day weekend though if the forecast holds true.
Quoting 4. sar2401:

She works hard finding all those links. She deserves some recognition.

Thanks Bob (you're welcome!) and thanks, Sar. This one was on my side of the Atlantic, although "a bit" south of me, so I felt somehow responsible, lol.

BTW, does anyone know where to get a good map with the precipitation totals of Fred while churning through the islands of Cabo Verde? I really think they dodged the bullet of a Dominica-like event because the heaviest rain fell into the ocean, not onto the islands.

The map I found with the precipitation in the lower right corner, is so small:



Edit: Nevermind, I found the source with a pdf version.
Besonderes Lob! Barb. lol
Just for Interesting:

September 1st 1985: 17 TS 6 H 4 MH
September 1st 2015: 16 (i have certainty that 13E will be Kevin at 18z) TS 10 H 7 MH
September 1st 1992: 16 TS 8 H 5 MH
September 1st 2014: 14 TS 9 H 6 MH
September 1st 1984: 14 TS 9 H 5 MH
September 1st 1982: 14 TS 7 H 3 MH
September 1st 1990: 13 TS 10 H 3 MH
September 1st 1983: 11 TS 6 H 3 MH

If 8E and 11E became tropical storms, we would already have the 18th named storm of the season LOL

Probably Kevin later today:



Impressive Jimena:


Ignacio, the fighter:


Kilo, the crazy guy:






Quoting 9. Grothar:

Besonderes Lob! Barb. lol

I'm just about to send the bill to WU, you know :-)
Ex Erika still spinning, most that rain will be coming ashore in Central and North FL I imagine.

Thanks Mr. Henson. Speaking about tropical storms in unexpected places, and climatology, here is a blurb/link to an article on a recent study on this issue:

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/08/extrem e-storms-may-threaten-unexpected-parts-world

In fact, there are a number of places around the world that may be highly vulnerable to the strong winds, rainfall, and storm surges of tropical cyclones, even though such storms haven’t struck them in recorded history. Risk managers use the term “black swan” to refer to a truly unpredictable, unavoidable event with powerful consequences. But Emanuel and his colleague Ning Lin, a civil engineer at Princeton University, suggest that for many such regions, the risk from a tropical cyclone may belong to a slightly less silent category of risk: the “grey swan.” Such events, they say, may not be predicted from history alone, but are somewhat foreseeable based on other available data, particularly storm physics and the geophysical setting.

By coupling hurricane models with hydrodynamic models—which simulate how water moves in, for example, a coastal region—Lin and Emanuel assessed the threat of storm surge from tropical cyclones for three low-lying and vulnerable coastal regions: Tampa, Florida, where the most recent strong hurricane was a 1921 storm that flooded the city; Cairns, Australia, which has been affected by several recent cyclones; and the Persian Gulf, which has not been hit by a tropical cyclone in recorded history. The most destructive aspect of a tropical cyclone tends to be its storm surge, which is complicated by factors including the storm’s intensity, size, and the shape of the coastal sea floor. This combination of factors makes storm surge a good metric for identifying a grey swan storm, the scientists say. To predict the likelihood of such storms, they used a two-part model. The first part, a deterministic model, simulates storms in many different environments over tens of thousands of years. The second part involved a statistical analysis of this large sample.

knock on wood the Atlantic stays quiet - they just told us the wind insurance is rising 10% because of increased risk (but we've had no direct hurricane hit in 10 years ?!?)
92 degrees with 72% humidity. Yes, it feels hot outside here in south, Fort Myers.
I know that this years hurricane season isn't over yet,but how do yall think next year hurricane season is going to be in the Atlantic ?
Quoting 2. sar2401:

Thanks, Bob. Kilo looks to be one of those storms that won't die. Hawaii has been extremely lucky so far to escape all these powerful storms. I thought Nadine (2012) was the longest lived Atlantic cyclone, forming on September 10 and going extratropical on October 4. There's probably some caveat I'm missing though.

BTW, is WU ever going to fix the ghost 90L that keeps showing up as forming in 1969?


Looks like Nadine racked up 24 days, compared to Ginger's 28 days. Close, but no cigar!

We're working on the 90L bug...

--Bob
New tropical wave expected to emerge from Africa on Thursday
A tropical wave currently over west-central Africa is expected to move off the coast of Africa on Thursday, at a location a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde islands. The Tuesday morning runs of the GFS model predicted some slow development of this wave late in the week as it moves west at 15 - 20 mph towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. Our other two reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European and UKMET models, depicted an atmosphere with higher wind shear, and little or no development of the new tropical wave. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively.

wind shear high everywhere now..

Quoting 12. CapeCoralWx:

Ex Erika still spinning, most that rain will be coming ashore in Central and North FL I imagine.



Looking at the vort maps this is pretty stacked. Im wondering if it still doesnt have a chance.
Good Afternoon... still watching ex-Erika.

If steering remains slow, it could allow it to develop a bit further.
Some models have that energy stopping and slowly sliding back south and east

Quoting 20. gator23:


Looking at the vort maps this is pretty stacked. Im wondering if it still doesnt have a chance.
Quoting 23. fire635:

Some models have that energy stopping and slowly sliding back south and west



seems to be drifting NE at the moment
Quoting 18. BobHenson:



Looks like Nadine racked up 24 days, compared to Ginger's 28 days. Close, but no cigar!

We're working on the 90L bug...

--Bob
Ah, my poor math skills have defeated me again. It just seems like Nadine was the longest cyclone on record, I guess, since I was sick of hearing about it after two weeks. :-) I don't know what the deal is with ghost 90L but it's lasted much longer than the real 90L.
Quasi cyclone Erika threw out some nice rain bands today in Largo
Quoting 16. FirstCoastMan:

I know that this years hurricane season isn't over yet,but how do yall think next year hurricane season is going to be in the Atlantic ?
It's going to be hot and humid. Oh, you mean actually out in the Atlantic. There's going to be some tropical cyclones, no doubt about it.
Quoting 15. Sfloridacat5:

92 degrees with 72% humidity. Yes, it feels hot outside here in south, Fort Myers.


Ouch! After a few days in the 90s we're back to highs in the low 80s again with a chance to break into the high 70s here in inland Orange County, CA. don't get those temps this time of year often. water is definitely warm though off the coast. local reports of record tuna and yellowfin catches.


hot weather in the northeast today
Quoting 22. WxLogic:

Good Afternoon... still watching ex-Erika.

If steering remains slow, it could allow it to develop a bit further.


The Tropical Weather discussion says it will remain basically stationary until dissipation on Wednesday.
Pretty neat outflow boundary pushing into central Fl.
ASCAT @ 1556Z caught some 35kts...



Circulation was showing (or might still be) as elongated by the time of the pass.
Are the remnants of Erika spinning in the NE Gulf of mexico?
Quoting 30. sonofagunn:



The Tropical Weather discussion says it will remain basically stationary until dissipation on Wednesday.


Will be interesting to see what would actually happen until that time. :)
Quoting 20. gator23:


Looking at the vort maps this is pretty stacked. Im wondering if it still doesnt have a chance.
The blob is trapped in a trough with very little in the way of steering currents. Almost everything we're seeing now is diurnal. All the convection present yesterday collapsed after dark, and I expect to see the same thing today. Although there's really no mechanism to prove the lift and energy to get a tropical cyclone going now, a potential source does exist with that ULL off the Texas coast. If the ECMWF is right, it will drift along the Gulf coast and potentially add the kicker to the Florida blob. All of this has to race the rapidly expanding Bermuda high later this week that will kill off all the offshore convection and give the East Coast a real old fashioned heat wave.
the big picture welcome early fall coming soon
nice too see an active ITCZ for a change
Quoting 31. Sfloridacat5:

Pretty neat outflow boundary pushing into central Fl.

Gust front maybe?
Interesting that the Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is so high at this point in the year.
It gives an idea of just how much energy is being absorbed and transported by these storms.
Probably on the cards at this rate to exceed previous records and set a new annual maximum.
Just for fun, the GEM show a Vince-like tropical storm near the Azores and Madeira, that later makes landfall in Portugal: Link Link Link Link GEM also showed a similar system (just a bit more north) one or two days earlier, so it maybe has a small chance to develop (at least subtropical).



Quoting 37. sar2401:

Gust front maybe?


Yeah, this radar is very sensitive and it's picking up the cooler air (gust front with bugs and such in it) from the collapsing thunderstorms in the GOM. Pretty long and impressive one.
Quoting 21. nrtiwlnvragn:

The peak strength of this El Niño, expected sometime during October 2015 to January 2016, could potentially place it among the four strongest El Niño events since 1950.


We are still in Summer (obviously) and going into the Fall; assuming this El Nino forecast is correct, I am not looking forward at all to this Winter and the Spring of 2016 in the US. Gonna be some wicked Winter storms for the South, some wicked Nor-Easters (starting from low trajectory Gulf lows) for the NE, and a potentially real bad Spring tornado season.
Quoting 29. hurricanes2018:



hot weather in the northeast today


Hot weather anywhere East of the Mississippi river for the foreseeable future!
43. RayT
Quoting 31. Sfloridacat5:

Pretty neat outflow boundary pushing into central Fl.



are you guys still in need of rain out there?
Quoting 15. Sfloridacat5:

92 degrees with 72% humidity. Yes, it feels hot outside here in south, Fort Myers.


92 degrees w/ real feel 98 here in Silver Spring, MD. It doesn't just feel hot, it is HOT.
Quoting 44. AreadersinceWilma:



92 degrees w/ real feel 98 here in Silver Spring, MD. It doesn't just feel hot, it is HOT.


Weak
Quoting 22. WxLogic:

Good Afternoon... still watching ex-Erika.

If steering remains slow, it could allow it to develop a bit further.


I always thought that the longer one stayed stationary the less of a chance it could strengthen because it would well up colder water from well beneath the warmer surface temps....
Quoting 39. Zivipotty:

Just for fun, the GEM show a Vince-like tropical storm near the Azores and Madeira, that later makes landfall in Portugal: Link Link Link Link GEM also showed a similar system (just a bit more north) one or two days earlier, so it maybe has a small chance to develop (at least subtropical).





Now that would be interesting!
0% chance now on the NHC site...

Quoting 48. rxse7en:

0% chance now on the NHC site...




Personally, I would rather be in this position going into the peak of this year rather than swinging in and out of model cones from a barreling hurricane in the MDR................Just too stressful...................... :)
Quoting 14. ConchConvert:

knock on wood the Atlantic stays quiet - they just told us the wind insurance is rising 10% because of increased risk (but we've had no direct hurricane hit in 10 years ?!?)
That's what increases the risk -- didn't you know the risk goes up every year you're overdue for a hurricane? :-)))
90 is gone again lol....maybe WU will stop glitching on my computer now...been acting crazy for the last few days
Quoting 46. tiggeriffic:



I always thought that the longer one stayed stationary the less of a chance it could strengthen because it would well up colder water from well beneath the warmer surface temps....


That's usually the case with a larger, more developed system. It also depends on the amount of heat energy in the water.
I've seen some really powerful hurricanes sit basically stationary in the Caribbean, but the Caribbean usually has a lot of heat energy.
Quoting 41. weathermanwannabe:



We are still in Summer (obviously) and going into the Fall; assuming this El Nino forecast is correct, I am not looking forward at all to this Winter and the Spring of 2016 in the US. Gonna be some wicked Winter storms for the South, some wicked Nor-Easters (starting from low trajectory Gulf lows) for the NE, and a potentially real bad Spring tornado season.


From Steve Gregory Blog

With these increases in both SST anomalies and key atmospheric variables – the chances that the current Event will become a ‘Super El Niño' has risen to 60%. A WILD winter weather pattern is a virtual certainty.
Quoting 43. RayT:



are you guys still in need of rain out there?


Extreme S. Florida still needs rain. My areas has been doing just about average for the rainy season.
Good afternoon

Just got home for lunch and the yard looks as if a hurricane went through it. Tree limbs down and patio furniture strewn around. A 25 foot tall Washingtonian tree snapped off about 3 feet from the ground.

Wind gust of 43 MPH recorded at 8:42 in a thunderstorm complex that blew through then. The South Sound road that I use a lot was blocked also by a big casuarina tree that had fallen just after I had passed that spot. My wife had to back track behind me about 4 minutes later. Lucky no one was killed as it was rush hour then.
Quoting 49. weathermanwannabe:



Personally, I would rather be in this position going into the peak of this year rather than swinging in and out of model cones from a barreling hurricane in the MDR................Just too stressful...................... :)


ok, so if Fred is now weaker, wouldn't that pull him more to the west again or is he too high (close to 20N) so close to Africa and that will keep him from moving west....just a question mind you
Quoting 55. kmanislander:

Good afternoon

Just got home for lunch and the yard looks as if a hurricane went through it. Tree limbs down and patio furniture strewn around. A 25 foot tall Washingtonian tree snapped off about 3 feet from the ground.

Wind gust of 43 MPH recorded at 8:42 in a thunderstorm complex that blew through then. The South Sound road that I use a lot was blocked also be a big casuarina tree that had fallen just after I had passed that spot. My wife had to back track behind me about 4 minutes later. Lucky no one was killed as it was rush hour then.


wow...sorry for the damage but glad you are all ok
Quoting 57. tiggeriffic:



wow...sorry for the damage but glad you are all ok


At least two big breadfruit that were too high to reach fell from the breadfruit tree :-)
Quoting 48. rxse7en:

0% chance now on the NHC site...


Doesn't look like it's an invest either, or at least I can't find it on any of the usual sites. It looks like a case of the NHC recognizing it's there without much encouragement for heavy breathing.
Quoting 51. tiggeriffic:

90 is gone again lol....maybe WU will stop glitching on my computer now...been acting crazy for the last few days
Just in time for another yellow "X" to show up too. :-)
Quoting 58. kmanislander:



At least two big breadfruit that were too high to reach fell from the breadfruit tree :-)


Awesome way to be positive Kman.... we got hammered with rain yesterday and flooded (not at my house thank God) but didn't hear anything about downed trees...roads closed due to flooding...several water rescues, etc....but again...glad you are all ok
Quoting 56. tiggeriffic:



ok, so if Fred is now weaker, wouldn't that pull him more to the west again or is he too high (close to 20N) so close to Africa and that will keep him from moving west....just a question mind you


Don't know/have not researched the Fred issue much (and dissipation). Will only note that the A-B high blocking patterns establish for a period of time and then can change. The last two storms had a clear shot all the way to the Antilles, forming in the Central Atlantic, and Fred hit H status from the git-go off the Coast of Africa so he got the full coreolis effect right away (moving poleward) before getting streered across the Atlantic around the mid-Atlantic ridge.

Best shot for another Island bound CV storm is another wave slowly moving West in the trades...................
Repost from last blog.

So at 0%, at least they are saying there's a chance.
Quoting 53. nrtiwlnvragn:



From Steve Gregory Blog

With these increases in both SST anomalies and key atmospheric variables – the chances that the current Event will become a ‘Super El Niño' has risen to 60%. A WILD winter weather pattern is a virtual certainty.
o yeah big time and not gentle like before
Quoting 46. tiggeriffic:



I always thought that the longer one stayed stationary the less of a chance it could strengthen because it would well up colder water from well beneath the warmer surface temps....
The water depth off Florida is so shallow (<20 meters mostly) that cold water upwelling isn't much of issue for the area occupied by the ex-Erica blob. It's the very warm shallow water that contributes to these convection blowups, and why they generally fade out when it gets to the much deeper water further offshore. A storm sitting out in that blue area would be affected by cold water upwelling.

Quoting 64. Bucsboltsfan:

So at 0%, at least they are saying there's a chance.
Indeed. There's also a chance the market will turn around today and won't lose another boatload of money. Not a very good chance, but still...
Quoting 66. sar2401:

The water depth off Florida is so shallow (<20 meters mostly) that cold water upwelling isn't much of issue for the area occupied by the ex-Erica blob. It's the very warm shallow water that contributes to these convection blowups, and why they generally fade out when it gets to the much deeper water further offshore. A storm sitting out in that blue area would be affected by cold water upwelling.




gotcha
Quoting 55. kmanislander:

Good afternoon

Just got home for lunch and the yard looks as if a hurricane went through it. Tree limbs down and patio furniture strewn around. A 25 foot tall Washingtonian tree snapped off about 3 feet from the ground.

Wind gust of 43 MPH recorded at 8:42 in a thunderstorm complex that blew through then. The South Sound road that I use a lot was blocked also by a big casuarina tree that had fallen just after I had passed that spot. My wife had to back track behind me about 4 minutes later. Lucky no one was killed as it was rush hour then.


Might be an Omen of things to come...
Quoting 53. nrtiwlnvragn:



From Steve Gregory Blog

With these increases in both SST anomalies and key atmospheric variables – the chances that the current Event will become a ‘Super El Niño' has risen to 60%. A WILD winter weather pattern is a virtual certainty.


As a winter storm fan, I am excited for the El Ninio
Quoting 64. Bucsboltsfan:

So at 0%, at least they are saying there's a chance.

I guess it has the same chances of becoming a blizzard.
Quoting 58. kmanislander:



At least two big breadfruit that were too high to reach fell from the breadfruit tree :-)
I never realized how big and heavy breadfruit was until I was standing under a tree to get out of a shower on St. Vincent. I should have looked up first. :-)
Quoting 66. sar2401:

The water depth off Florida is so shallow (<20 meters mostly) that cold water upwelling isn't much of issue for the area occupied by the ex-Erica blob. It's the very warm shallow water that contributes to these convection blowups, and why they generally fade out when it gets to the much deeper water further offshore. A storm sitting out in that blue area would be affected by cold water upwelling.




This is what I've been trying to explain for 10 years. If you have a storm stalled out off the Florida or Texas coast in shallow water in no more than 50ft, and the water at the surface is 88 degrees, and at ocean floor it's 84 degrees... well, when you upwell that water to the surface you only bring down the surface water to 86 degrees for example. The storm will feel no impact of any cooler water.
Quoting 73. RitaEvac:



This is what I've been trying to explain for 10 years. If you have a storm stalled out off the Florida or Texas coast in shallow water in no more than 50ft, and the water at the surface is 88 degrees, and at ocean floor it's 84 degrees... well, when you upwell that water to the surface you only bring down the surface water to 86 degrees for example. The storm will feel no impact of any cooler water.


I've always thought deeper water was better for storms than shallower water.

Guess you learn something new every day
hey guys I see Erika is somewhat back however not expecting much interms of redevelopment I think it may just dissipate by Wed

next invest to be with the tropical wave on W Africa

anyway Im heading out for a meeting be back later
Quoting 59. sar2401:

Doesn't look like it's an invest either, or at least I can't find it on any of the usual sites. It looks like a case of the NHC recognizing it's there without much encouragement for heavy breathing.


The radar signature sure looks ominous...
got a couple of diving streaks to drop down come across as the seasons begins the change up into a fall state

hot here today feels more like late july early august instead of the beginning of sept





Did not know the GOM reached a depth of 12,000 ft. I should know that. I always believed it was around 5500 ft. deep.

"At a depth of more than 12,000 feet, Sigsbee Deep is the deepest part of the gulf. It is more than 300 miles long and is sometimes called the “Grand Canyon under the sea.” Its closest point to the Texas coast is 200 miles southeast of Brownsville.Link"
Quoting 78. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

got a couple of diving streaks to drop down come across as the seasons begins the change up into a fall state

hot here today feels more like late july early august instead of the beginning of sept








Hot here today in Mid Atlantic. Not a good two weeks for the early fall cool season crops which are experiencing much more heat stress than in 2013 and 2014.
Quoting 79. Sfloridacat5:

Did not know the GOM reached a depth of 12,000 ft. I should know that. I always believed it was around 5500 ft. deep.

"At a depth of more than 12,000 feet, Sigsbee Deep is the deepest part of the gulf. It is more than 300 miles long and is sometimes called the %u201CGrand Canyon under the sea.%u201D Its closest point to the Texas coast is 200 miles southeast of Brownsville.Link"


Notice the big OIL companies scrolling at the bottom of page, well not all, some government agencies.
Due to the historic nature of this El Nino, in Florida the biggest weather threat this year and into the end of next Spring could very well be not Hurricanes, but Tornadoes. In the 1997-98 El Nino, there were 42 deaths due to Tornado activity across Florida. It'll be a wild winter and spring.
Quoting 77. SCwannabee:



The radar signature sure looks ominous...
its a bit of a spin to it but it will likely dry out as soon as the sun goes down

Quoting 79. Sfloridacat5:

Did not know the GOM reached a depth of 12,000 ft. I should know that. I always believed it was around 5500 ft. deep.

"At a depth of more than 12,000 feet, Sigsbee Deep is the deepest part of the gulf. It is more than 300 miles long and is sometimes called the “Grand Canyon under the sea.” Its closest point to the Texas coast is 200 miles southeast of Brownsville.Link"


Was it the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs that formed the entire Gulf?
Quoting 83. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its a bit of a spin to it but it will likely dry out as soon as the sun goes down




Mid levels
86. SLU


World Atlas says it gets over 13,000 ft. deep.
Link

"Though somewhat shallow along the coastal continental shelf areas, it plunges to an (estimated) maximum depth of over 13,123 ft (4,000 m) in the Sigsbee Deep, a flat abyss portion in the southwestern Gulf."
Got a mid level vort south of Gtown as well



Quoting 84. rxse7en:



Was it the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs that formed the entire Gulf?


No, just a canyon. The GOM is a lot deeper than most people realize once you move away from the continental shelf.
Quoting 89. Sfloridacat5:



No, just a canyon. The GOM is a lot deeper than most people realize once you move away from the continental shelf.


2.5 miles
Quoting 88. RitaEvac:

Got a mid level vort south of Gtown as well


here is a gulf visible all daytime heat convection gone as soon as the sun goes down or shortly there after



I guess near 0% is still enough for SFWMD to put 90L back on the board. Now we just need some new model runs.
Quoting 47. PlazaRed:


Now that would be interesting!

That's fredi-cool-OS.
Quoting 84. rxse7en:



Was it the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs that formed the entire Gulf?



This is the best estimate of the crater that can be determined. Half on the Yucatan Peninsula and half off. There is still a debate, but majority of scientists still hold on to the belief that this was it. Or it could have been aliens.


Quoting 78. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

got a couple of diving streaks to drop down come across as the seasons begins the change up into a fall state

hot here today feels more like late july early august instead of the beginning of sept






Mid-Late September is when the transition from summer temps to fall temps begin.
Quoting 69. RitaEvac:



Might be an Omen of things to come...


I hope not :-(
humidex makes it feel like 94 outside too warm
Quoting 72. sar2401:

I never realized how big and heavy breadfruit was until I was standing under a tree to get out of a shower on St. Vincent. I should have looked up first. :-)


Good thing it wasn't a coconut tree !
Quoting 61. tiggeriffic:



Awesome way to be positive Kman.... we got hammered with rain yesterday and flooded (not at my house thank God) but didn't hear anything about downed trees...roads closed due to flooding...several water rescues, etc....but again...glad you are all ok



Thanks. If you look hard enough you can find a silver lining.
Quoting 70. FunnelVortex:



As a winter storm fan, I am excited for the El Ninio
What should we expect as Wild winter weather on the gulf coast? Cold and rainy from jan-April? That's pretty usual here actually. I imagine the effects will be more pronounced up north.
Quoting 97. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

humidex makes it feel like 94 outside too warm
Keep when do you think the 80s and 90s will come to a close this year?
Quoting 100. Sandcat:

What should we expect as Wil winter weather on the gulf coast? Cold and rainy from jan-April? That's pretty usual here actually. I imagine the effects will be more pronounced up north.


Which is where I am
Quoting 84. rxse7en:



Was it the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs that formed the entire Gulf?


Hit the Yucatan but wasn't there that day. Out on a call.
Really feels like July 15th than September 1st. Heat Index is 96 degrees and rising. At least Fall is 3 weeks away!
Quoting 95. Climate175:

Mid-Late September is when the transition from summer temps to fall temps begin.


our average daytime high for early sept should be 24c or 75f my pws says 81.3
7 degrees above normal tomorrow even warmer than today they forecasting 85 to 86f

warm maybe till Monday 7th labour day then maybe slow cool off hopefully

we shall see ive seen a few hot Septembers maybe this will be one of them
Quoting 102. FunnelVortex:



Which is where I am
Gotcha. Our winter weather doesn't get very interesting. Most Christmases are like 75-80 degrees. We get snow/sleet about every 10 years and it closes schools. It is pretty funny actually....
Quoting 106. Sandcat:

Gotcha. Our winter weather doesn't get very interesting. Most Christmases are like 75-80 degrees. We get snow/sleet about every 10 years and it closes schools. It is pretty funny actually....


I've heard the stories about a half inch of snow closing schools before.

It is hilarious, especially since it takes 8 whole inches before sunrise to close schools here.

Greetings -Its So Good to be Alive and Blessed!!! (Post Erika)...
Indeed it is extremely tragic to have witnessed what ultimately happened in Dominica the Nature isle since the passage of Tropical Storm Erika. Horrifically -the catastrophic onslaught from Erika more than validated 1000 x 1,000,000 times what I was constantly voicing just prior to the impact from Erika -and for Danny likewise as a matter of fact...That warnings or at the very least watches were required for our island and its populace. It was a form of intuition and premonition, but thank God was quite prophetic, accurate and critical in nature to all parties concerned within the island. If and Only if it was heeded by the authorities that be. I will continually lament this- as utterly unacceptable incompetence by the Meteorological offices/ services both regionally and locally. What an incomprehensibly tragic, and perplexingly fateful day the 27th August 2015 turned out to be for our island Dominica. one that we will never forget. Altogether, my unofficial totals for the storm amounted to about 18.5 inches which is very consistent with the resultant flood damages and destruction which we witnessed in an unprecedented way throughout that absolutely horrendous and terrifying day.
I myself along with others have posted other crucial updates and reports on the overall situation on the Dominica page at Stormcarib.com which the online community here an feel free to review and peruse.

We are surviving by God's grace, however help is quickly arriving & we are continually encouraged and supported by the pledges of countless foreign friendly governments and agencies. Your sincere and express concerns and solidarity with Dominica and its people at this time has been definitely invaluable. Please continue to do all You can to further the Recovery efforts in Dominica- Nature Island of the Caribbean. N.B. (Telecoms and Internet service has been much slower to return to the farther reaches of the country such as the North east coast where I'm located and it remains sporadic...besides & perhaps much more significantly the sheer weight and magnitude of the disaster has had a severe material, mental, economic, social and critical unimaginable human impact that at times feels bewildering and certainly depressing...I can underscore that its a lot more serious than what meets the eye via -images, videos or tweets) We remain strong & Hopeful Nevertheless, this too shall Pass... Blessings to All!
Quoting 101. Climate175:

Keep when do you think the 80s and 90s will come to a close this year?


early October likely will be the end of high heat up my way
by then should be in high 60's for daytime highs
nights getting down into the high 30'to low 40's or that what it should be

but ya know what it should be and what it will be are always two different things
Quoting 105. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



our average daytime high for early sept should be 24c or 75f my pws says 81.3
7 degrees above normal tomorrow even warmer than today they forecasting 85 to 86f

warm maybe till Monday 7th labour day then maybe slow cool off hopefully

we shall see ive seen a few hot Septembers maybe this will be one of them
My 7 day in S C IL is straight 89s w/ 70, (2) 69s, (3) 68s, then a 66 on Labor Day eve.
Current is 89.6, so expect we're busting forecast today. Dew pt 70, down from 72 this a.m., for a 95 HX, 30.06" down from 30.1 & light W-SW winds.
Quoting 108. NatureIsle:


Greetings -Its So Good to be Alive and Blessed!!! (Post Erika!
all things shall past treat each day as if it were a gift I watched the sats and new ya all were getting pounded nothing more I could do but wish it to pass quickly which it did but not until wrecking your island
Quoting 85. RitaEvac:



Mid levels


Look at the vort maps. It goes down to the surface. Well see if it wanes. I imagine if it doesn't by 8:00 the NHC will raise its chances.
Quoting 112. gator23:



Look at the vort maps. It goes down to the surface.


Probably not much more than an MCV at most. It should dissipate tonight
Atlantic wide view show's a basin primed to have maybe a September to remember. Just not in the Caribbean. Gulf is looking primed but storms so rarely form in the NW Gulf with so many fronts and other weather patterns working against it. But it is very active. Think three move Cape Verdes, three more in the Atlantic with systems coming from the Gulf with El-Nino's helping hand push. Threat to Bermuda and the Northeast. Maybe one long tracking system actually makes it to the Bahamas or the Gulf alive, but shear's just too much; El-Nino gives and El-Nino takes away.
Quoting 113. FunnelVortex:



Probably not much more than an MCV at most. It should dissipate tonight

MCV's often are seeds for tropical development. Like I said if it doesnt wane by 8:00 PM the NHC should pay more attention to it.
Quoting 114. DeepSeaRising:

Atlantic wide view show's a basin primed to have maybe a September to remember. Just not in the Caribbean. Gulf is looking primed but storms so rarely form in the NW Gulf with so many fronts and other weather patterns working against it. But it is very active. Think three move Cape Verdes, three more in the Atlantic with systems coming from the Gulf with El-Nino's helping hand push. Threat to Bermuda and the Northeast. Maybe one long tracking system actually makes it to the Bahamas or the Gulf alive, but shear's just too much; El-Nino gives and El-Nino takes away.


Often season can last into November, but onsidering it is an El Ninio year, season will most likely shut down the first week of October/last week of September.
Quoting 115. gator23:


MCV's often are seeds for tropical development. Like I said if it doesnt wane by 8:00 PM the NHC should pay more attention to it.


It probably does not have much time before it moves out anyways.
Quoting 94. Grothar:




This is the best estimate of the crater that can be determined. Half on the Yucatan Peninsula and half off. There is still a debate, but majority of scientists still hold on to the belief that this was it. Or it could have been aliens.





Thank you, Gro.
Quoting 117. FunnelVortex:



It probably does not have much time before it moves out anyways.

According to the NHC it is forecast to sit there through tomorrow.
Quoting 119. gator23:


According to the NHC it is forecast to sit there through tomorrow.


Still not enough time to become anything real big
Wonder if this has anything to do with what could be something tropical next week for our area...


Quoting 91. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

here is a gulf visible all daytime heat convection gone as soon as the sun goes down or shortly there after


Quoting 92. fmbill:



I guess near 0% is still enough for SFWMD to put 90L back on the board. Now we just need some new model runs.


HA, for once xtrap goes right over my roof.


All of our Lows look like they're in the same dance class.
So we know DRY DUSTY Sahara air KILL Hurricanes ... so this season is going to be another QUITE one ... Wonder what next year will bring? ...
Quoting 123. Melagoo:

So we know DRY DUSTY Sahara air KILL Hurricanes ... so this season is going to be another QUITE one ... Wonder what next year will bring? ...


SAL is around every season. This one is quiet because the El Ninio causes above average wind shear across the Atlantic basin
kind of odd that when erica was a cyclone she seemed to do better in the night and now as leftover in the day
Quoting 120. FunnelVortex:



Still not enough time to become anything real big


Systems in the past have spun up to hurricanes in about 24 hours so anything is possible.
Quoting 125. islander101010:

kind of odd that when erica was a cyclone she seemed to better in the night and now as leftover in the day


It is not unusual. DMAX usually causes storms to strengthen
Forecasters Sullivan/Brown forgot to knock on wood when they gave Erika's remnants a 0% chance of redevelopment in the 2pm TWO.
Quoting 118. rxse7en:



Thank you, Gro.



Bitte, sehr.
little area ne of the windwards its in a historical "go" area.

What's over leewards...ULL?
2009 Fred-X Never seemed to want to quit


Looks like the Euro now develops the wave about to come off of Africa and so does the GFS to some extent and the NAVGEM.We have some kind of support for the wave now we watch and see if the sub tropical stomr potential gets the name grace first or if the wave gets the name Grace first.
I does have that......look

Perhaps if it gets back into the Atlantic it may do something. There should be some low pressure off the east coast this week. Some homegrown activity.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
252 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE
HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE REMNANT TROUGH OF ERIKA IS REACHES FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AREA TO THE CENTRAL GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FLARING ALONG THE TROUGH N OF 26N E OF 85W. THIS CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST INTO WED AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY DISSIPATES THROUGH LATE
WED. FARTHER WEST A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER THE NW GULF EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO WED. LIGHT WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF CURRENTLY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE NE GULF...MAINTAINING THE LIGHT
TO GENTLE BREEZES AND MODEST SEAS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WHERE A TROUGH WILL FORM EACH EVENING...TEMPORARILY ALLOWING
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT.
Quoting 134. washingtonian115:

Looks like the Euro now develops the wave about to come off of Africa and so does the GFS to some extent and the NAVGEM.We have some kind of support for the wave now we watch and see if the sub tropical stomr potential gets the name grace first or if the wave gets the name Grace first.

Hi, Washi. First wave has a good spin. The next one a lot of convection.
Quoting 104. Climate175:

Really feels like July 15th than September 1st. Heat Index is 96 degrees and rising. At least Fall is 3 weeks away!


The warmest quarter of the year ends Sept 6. That's the most logical definition of the beginning of Autumn to me.
But yep.. feels like summer and it will for the next week. Perhaps Sept 9-10 we can cool off if the GFS verifies.

I remember from kid days that fall weather seemed to start right when school started in the first days of September. There were heat waves, e.g. Sept. 1970 and 1965 but steady unbreaking heat was rare after school started.
What is by the Leeward Islands? Too much convection to be an ULL? Is in a really sweet spot.
Quoting 139. georgevandenberghe:



The warmest quarter of the year ends Sept 6. That's the most logical definition of the beginning of Autumn to me.
But yep.. feels like summer and it will for the next week. Perhaps Sept 9-10 we can cool off if the GFS verifies.

I remember from kid days that fall weather seemed to start right when school started in the first days of September. There were heat waves, e.g. Sept. 1970 and 1965 but steady unbreaking heat was rare after school started.

gonna be a little warm for the students going back next week feel bad for them considering most schools lack ac up here anyway
144. vis0
i'm late, but things on the  todo list for the busy National Hurricane Center... (as noted by SAR2401, dr. Masters & a few others yesterday & today)



Right click any image and then view image...for large.
Quoting 142. DeepSeaRising:

What is by the Leeward Islands? Too much convection to be an ULL? Is in a really sweet spot.


ULLs can spark convection underneath them. However they also produce shear, not allowing a TC to develop.
Quoting 145. Starhopper:







So many waves just lined up like ducks
Quoting 146. FunnelVortex:



ULLs can spark convection underneath them. However they also produce shear, not allowing a TC to develop.

Yes I was noticing that on shear map. Thanks man. : )
Quoting 94. Grothar:




This is the best estimate of the crater that can be determined. Half on the Yucatan Peninsula and half off. There is still a debate, but majority of scientists still hold on to the belief that this was it. Or it could have been aliens.





I've worked out there from about the cross-hairs in the center to the western extent of the circle. Based on the bathymetry you would never know what happened there, but the magnetic anomalies in that area are wild.
Tornadodude, #133: Fred '09 never wanting to quit

Someday one of us should look into why so many storms do loops just W of the CVs.
Ex-Erika is really spinning. A little more time over water and I think we would have a Tropical Depression. But it looks like it's going to move inland tonight.

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport

Date:

5:00 PM EDT Tuesday 1 September 2015




Condition:

Sunny

Pressure:

30.0 inches

Tendency:

falling

Visibility:

10 miles

Temperature:

84.0°F

Dewpoint:

68.0°F

Humidity:

58%

Wind:

S 8 mph

Humidex:

98
Quoting 152. Sfloridacat5:

Ex-Erika is really spinning. A little more time over water and I think we would have a Tropical Depression. But it looks like it's going to move inland tonight.


Agree. Been looking good on radar all day.
Big time rotation with Ex- Erika.
With all these storms spinning and recurving in the Pacific I sense a big pattern change by mid-month for the East(perhaps an Early Fall even for Florida) and no there will not likely be a superstorm like fox news is spewing out!
Quoting 156. weatherbro:

With all these storms I sense a big pattern change by mid-month for the East and no there will not likely be a superstorm like fox news is spewing out!


What are you talking about...?
CMC shows a gulf storm forming from a disturbance that migrated up from the Pacific over Mexico.

Probably won't happen, but still



NavGem supports a low in the western gulf
Quoting 133. tornadodude:

2009 Fred-X Never seemed to want to quit




Operationally he died soon after being downgraded to a depression, no one was tracking a decaying depression for a week
Hello everyone.
I am sitting here in my spot of Spring Hill, Fl. Looking at radar, it looks like I should be getting rain.
I have not had a drop of rain here! In fact we are dry here.
Where is my rain? LOL!
Wuvs you ALL!
162. MahFL
Looks like a tropical low to me :

Looks like a tropical low to me

Looks content to sit-n-spin until its forced to drift ashore.
Everyone have a safe weather evening; I am still at work in Tallahassee (and a very busy pm) and just clicked on the blog and saw the radar loop. Will let Yall know tomorrow if those "bands" cause any problems up here (lol) but we are currently having a very light mist/sprinkle and no wind. 
Ironic that if Ericka had been able to hold together, we could have been looking at a tropical storm coming ashore around this time frame in the Big Bend:

Southeast sector loop
We still have not seen any pictures of the Cape Verde hurricane here on the Spanish news, all a bit odd as is so near to us geographically and of course Portugal is heavily connected to them on the islands.

Meanwhile I saw this link to a big storm in Washington state a couple of days ago, winds up to 90 MPH.

Link
Quoting 155. Sfloridacat5:

Big time rotation with Ex- Erika.



As was the case yesterday in Central FL, a lot of bark but not much bite with it though. The remnant low offers little in the way of forcing of it's own unlike a T.S. or hurricane, so all the high clouds have limited heating, and prevented convection from being more numerous here despite high moisture, just like Central FL last couple days.
Quoting 159. FunnelVortex:

CMC shows a gulf storm forming from a disturbance that migrated up from the Pacific over Mexico.

Probably won't happen, but still



NavGem supports a low in the western gulf



Could that be TD14 in the Epac now?

On another note... looks like Erika wants a new life.
Quoting 138. Grothar:

Hello Gro.Yes I have been watching that wave for sometime now and the models are starting to pick up on its vigorous circulation.It should have a chance before it to succumbs to the horrible conditions in the Atlantic.
Looks like Florida got real lucky that remnants of Ericka didn't gather itself together farther from shore. Seems to be some rotation kicking in, indeed.
Erika's remnant low spinning. And in other news look at that outflow from the complex that came offshore from Texas, it is blowing the lower clouds away.

Quoting 91. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

here is a gulf visible all daytime heat convection gone as soon as the sun goes down or shortly there after




-- So my eyes weren't deceiving me there. Thankfully (I hope)so close to land.
Quoting 108. NatureIsle:


Greetings -Its So Good to be Alive and Blessed!!! (Post Erika)...
Indeed it is extremely tragic to have witnessed what ultimately happened in Dominica the Nature isle since the passage of Tropical Storm Erika. Horrifically -the catastrophic onslaught from Erika more than validated 1000 x 1,000,000 times what I was constantly voicing just prior to the impact from Erika -and for Danny likewise as a matter of fact...That warnings or at the very least watches were required for our island and its populace. It was a form of intuition and premonition, but thank God was quite prophetic, accurate and critical in nature to all parties concerned within the island. If and Only if it was heeded by the authorities that be. I will continually lament this- as utterly unacceptable incompetence by the Meteorological offices/ services both regionally and locally. What an incomprehensibly tragic, and perplexingly fateful day the 27th August 2015 turned out to be for our island Dominica. one that we will never forget. Altogether, my unofficial totals for the storm amounted to about 18.5 inches which is very consistent with the resultant flood damages and destruction which we witnessed in an unprecedented way throughout that absolutely horrendous and terrifying day.
I myself along with others have posted other crucial updates and reports on the overall situation on the Dominica page at Stormcarib.com which the online community here an feel free to review and peruse.

We are surviving by God's grace, however help is quickly arriving & we are continually encouraged and supported by the pledges of countless foreign friendly governments and agencies. Your sincere and express concerns and solidarity with Dominica and its people at this time has been definitely invaluable. Please continue to do all You can to further the Recovery efforts in Dominica- Nature Island of the Caribbean. N.B. (Telecoms and Internet service has been much slower to return to the farther reaches of the country such as the North east coast where I'm located and it remains sporadic...besides & perhaps much more significantly the sheer weight and magnitude of the disaster has had a severe material, mental, economic, social and critical unimaginable human impact that at times feels bewildering and certainly depressing...I can underscore that its a lot more serious than what meets the eye via -images, videos or tweets) We remain strong & Hopeful Nevertheless, this too shall Pass... Blessings to All!


I'm glad to hear you are okay. Portsmouth was an island, on high enough ground to have only slight flooding but cut off from the rest of Dominica until Sunday night and Monday when water, phones, and finally internet trickled on. And our port is functional so they're shipping in food and probably starting garbage collection by the end of the week to a temporary dump.

How is your food and water situation over on the northeast side, all we've seen is the airport and that was bad enough.
174. vis0
Quoting 55. kmanislander:

Good afternoon

Just got home for lunch and the yard looks as if a hurricane went through it. Tree limbs down and patio furniture strewn around. A 25 foot tall Washingtonian tree snapped off about 3 feet from the ground.

Wind gust of 43 MPH recorded at 8:42 in a thunderstorm complex that blew through then. The South Sound road that I use a lot was blocked also by a big casuarina tree that had fallen just after I had passed that spot. My wife had to back track behind me about 4 minutes later. Lucky no one was killed as it was rush hour then.





Quoting 175. GeoffreyWPB:




How long is it supposed to spin offshore?
Its the Triple Cannon Trap'
176, FunnelVortex:



FL spin gets a 'L' but not TXs'.
Quoting 181. Patrap:




It's SO cute! Getting some clouds here in Jax now--no precipitation. Not doing anything for the temps here either. Was 93 (103 humidex) here today. I think I'll look at my photos of when it snowed here last winter--no accumulation, just some flakes.
Quoting 175. GeoffreyWPB:



Finally at long last the last gasp of Erika. She'll be dead tonight
186. SLU
Quoting 108. NatureIsle:


Greetings -Its So Good to be Alive and Blessed!!! (Post Erika)...
Indeed it is extremely tragic to have witnessed what ultimately happened in Dominica the Nature isle since the passage of Tropical Storm Erika. Horrifically -the catastrophic onslaught from Erika more than validated 1000 x 1,000,000 times what I was constantly voicing just prior to the impact from Erika -and for Danny likewise as a matter of fact...That warnings or at the very least watches were required for our island and its populace. It was a form of intuition and premonition, but thank God was quite prophetic, accurate and critical in nature to all parties concerned within the island. If and Only if it was heeded by the authorities that be. I will continually lament this- as utterly unacceptable incompetence by the Meteorological offices/ services both regionally and locally. What an incomprehensibly tragic, and perplexingly fateful day the 27th August 2015 turned out to be for our island Dominica. one that we will never forget. Altogether, my unofficial totals for the storm amounted to about 18.5 inches which is very consistent with the resultant flood damages and destruction which we witnessed in an unprecedented way throughout that absolutely horrendous and terrifying day.
I myself along with others have posted other crucial updates and reports on the overall situation on the Dominica page at Stormcarib.com which the online community here an feel free to review and peruse.

We are surviving by God's grace, however help is quickly arriving & we are continually encouraged and supported by the pledges of countless foreign friendly governments and agencies. Your sincere and express concerns and solidarity with Dominica and its people at this time has been definitely invaluable. Please continue to do all You can to further the Recovery efforts in Dominica- Nature Island of the Caribbean. N.B. (Telecoms and Internet service has been much slower to return to the farther reaches of the country such as the North east coast where I'm located and it remains sporadic...besides & perhaps much more significantly the sheer weight and magnitude of the disaster has had a severe material, mental, economic, social and critical unimaginable human impact that at times feels bewildering and certainly depressing...I can underscore that its a lot more serious than what meets the eye via -images, videos or tweets) We remain strong & Hopeful Nevertheless, this too shall Pass... Blessings to All!


I'm glad you're ok. The damage is appalling to say the least. DA will rise again!
Thank you Mr. Henson.
Hey guys what a tropical storm that passed through Grand Cayman earlier today

Winds up to about 40mph

189. MahFL
Quoting 188. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys what a tropical storm that passed through Grand Cayman earlier today

Winds up to about 40mph




You need constant 39 mph for a TS, not a few gusts.
190. 882MB
What a lightning show, and YES more rain. Thank you God, Amen!!



Remnant Erica looks like a TD to me.
Hey yall..

I see an X on ex Erika..

hmmm..wonder who saw that coming..
18z Navgem..

Last frame..Quiet in September..I think not



STS has really ghosted from the blog for the last few days. I used to watch over those precipitation forecasts too, but they usually don't pan out unless you got a sure thing.
Good to hear Cabo Verde made it out okay, I guess if the most notorious hurricanes are named after your country you probably have quite the run in with potent waves with bad weather, even if they're not named systems.

Regarding the wave expected to come out of Africa, I think the models at the moment reflect what we've seen with Erika: maybe a wave makes it to the west Atlantic, maybe not. But it would need to have enough of itself intact in the sweet spot east and north of PR or near the Bahamas to have a fighting chance. I think we'll see Grace by mid-September even if it isn't with this wave or the one behind it...have the models still shown a low forming in the gulf? I'll have to check that out.
Quoting 194. ElConando:

STS has really ghosted from the blog for the last few days. I used to watch over those precipitation forecasts too, but they usually don't pan out unless you got a sure thing.


STS usually pops up during AGW debates or when the models bring something close to his house. He comes on other times as well, but the previous two is when he is more active... Then again I only recently came back to the blog after a year so that may have changed.
Quoting 194. ElConando:

STS has really ghosted from the blog for the last few days. I used to watch over those precipitation forecasts too, but they usually don't pan out unless you got a sure thing.


I believe he said he was going on vacation with his family..some people don't blog 24/7 or as Taz would say have a life outside this blog..
198. MahFL
Quoting 191. PensacolaDoug:

Remnant Erica looks like a TD to me.


Not enough persistent convection for a TD as it's under 30knts of shear.
Quoting 159. FunnelVortex:

CMC shows a gulf storm forming from a disturbance that migrated up from the Pacific over Mexico.

Probably won't happen, but still



NavGem supports a low in the western gulf



CAUTION: The CMC is biased toward developing ANYTHING in the Gulf of Mexico and shoving it into Texas's lap.
200. MahFL
Just I made my last comment some more convection does fire up :

Quoting 193. ncstorm:

18z Navgem..

Last frame..Quiet in September..I think not






Agreed. 1997's ENSO season gave us it's strongest storm (Erika believe it or not) this week 18 years ago. Favorable MJO as well last I checked. Just need a disturbance to hit a spot where the shear is tolerable and away from that dusty mess in the open Atlantic.
Quoting 199. pureet1948:



CAUTION: The CMC is biased toward developing ANYTHING in the Gulf of Mexico and shoving it into Texas's lap.


CMC is a "doom" model. It wants to end the gulf coast's existence every year.
203. 882MB
Quoting 201. win1gamegiantsplease:



Agreed. 1997's ENSO season gave us it's strongest storm (Erika believe it or not) this week 18 years ago. Favorable MJO as well last I checked. Just need a disturbance to hit a spot where the shear is tolerable and away from that dusty mess in the open Atlantic.


I suppose the West GOMEX is a spot where the shear is tolerable?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located northwest of the northwestern Cape Verde
Islands.

1. A weak surface trough, the remnants of Erika, is producing an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico. Surface pressures in the area are high, and upper-level
winds are currently not conducive for redevelopment. This system
could produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of central and
northern Florida during the next day or so while it drifts
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

2. A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
on Thursday several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to
occur through the weekend while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
i see a low in the GOM!! no t.d tonight!
Quoting 206. hurricanes2018:

i see a low in the GOM!! no t.d tonight!


Well duh.

But I think the Erika Remnant Low may have a chance once it crosses the Florida peninsula and enters the Atlantic. Small chance, but still.
211. MahFL
Quoting 207. FunnelVortex:



Well duh.

But I think the Erika Remnant Low may have a chance once it crosses the Florida peninsula and enters the Atlantic. Small chance, but still.


Er it's heading North into land.
ghosts of EX05L

Quoting 211. MahFL:



Er it's heading North into land.


The models seem to bring it north into land and then make it go south and back out




How cool!!

Brad Panovich Meteorologist

Spotty #godzilla #elnino today in Massachusetts. Via Jay Albert

ncstorm I love it!
Other areas to blob watch.....

Link
Ok, so, to state the obvious, Hurricanes are a way to transfer heat from beneath the atmosphere to middle/upper atmosphere. Does that heat get transferred into space? If so, elevated levels of ACE mean elevated levels of heat escaping the planet.

Here is a fun query for the Meteorology grad student seminar: If atmospheric CO2 increases 1ppm, how many hurricanes (pick your central tendency storm) are required to release the heat retained by that incremental CO2?
Quoting 217. icedtea:

Ok, so, to state the obvious, Hurricanes are a way to transfer heat from beneath the atmosphere to middle/upper atmosphere. Does that heat get transferred into space? If so, elevated levels of ACE mean elevated levels of heat escaping the planet.

Here is a fun query for the Meteorology grad student seminar: If atmospheric CO2 increases 1ppm, how many hurricanes (pick your central tendency storm) are required to release the heat retained by that incremental CO2?


Hurricanes do not go that high. The heat gets transferred to the poles
While El Niño does not reduce the number of tropical disturbances moving westward from Africa, it does limit the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin in general.
The reduction is due to more pronounced areas of wind shear and dry air during El Niño.
However, El Niño does not tend to reduce the number of strong systems so much, such as Category 3 hurricanes or greater. If a system can move into a pocket of favorable conditions with low wind shear and moisture, then it can still progress to a major hurricane.
As of Sept. 1, 2015, there have been four tropical storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane for the Atlantic season.
While the forecast for the number of systems and landfalls are meant to be used as a rough guide, based on the AccuWeather 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast, there is still room for more hurricanes, tropical storms and another landfall in the U.S. before the official season draws to a close in November.
"All indications are that if a tropical or subtropical storm were to evolve near Bermuda it would not impact the United States and might even steer clear of Atlantic Canada," Kottlowski said.
As the system, tropical or not moves eastward initially, showers and thunderstorms would affect Bermuda Thursday into Friday night. Either clearing or squalls with increasing wind would follow over the weekend, depending on whether or not the system develops and stalls.
Any impact on Atlantic Canada would not occur until next week.
Another area that bears watching is a disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico, along the Texas coast.
Steering flow will tend to push this system northward and into the lower Mississippi Valley during the middle days of the week.


More Tropical Systems May Brew in Atlantic During September Despite El Nino
A rapid shutdown of tropical activity and an end to hurricane season in early September are not likely this year, despite a strong El Niño.
While there are no powerful tropical systems in the Atlantic at present, there will continue to be several areas to watch through the Labor Day weekend and beyond.
what happened to all the rain from erica we were supposed to have here in new smyrna beach florida the past 3 days... another mix up i guess
Quoting 217. icedtea:

Ok, so, to state the obvious, Hurricanes are a way to transfer heat from beneath the atmosphere to middle/upper atmosphere. Does that heat get transferred into space? If so, elevated levels of ACE mean elevated levels of heat escaping the planet.

Here is a fun query for the Meteorology grad student seminar: If atmospheric CO2 increases 1ppm, how many hurricanes (pick your central tendency storm) are required to release the heat retained by that incremental CO2?
I don't know, but I see a sign post up ahead...

Next stop...The Denial Zone.
We had some kind of freak squall in Grand Cayman this morning around 8:35am, after I dropped my son to work and was on my way home, I saw a garbage can flying about 30 feet in the air, then I heard what I thought was gunshots, when I realize it was tree branches snapping and dropping to the ground, had me a bit scared to be honest I estimated the winds to be between 40-50mph , but they same so destructive! Anyways turned out to be another hot sunny day! Just thought I'd share, weather can sure change fast!!
Quoting 224. sar2401:

I don't know, but I see a sign post up ahead...

Next stop...The Denial Zone.
How about the twilight denial zone,if that's the reference?memory lane again tho.
Hello everyone. Good Evening. Since it is a slow weather night I thought I would share with the blog an editorial from the Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting by two of my professors in Meteorology at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Dr. Richard Snow and Dr. Mary Snow titled: "The Impact of Climate Change on Human Health"

Climate change is impacting human health. An obvious effect of a warmer environment is more frequent and severe heat waves. During the European heat wave of 2003, there were an estimated 35,000 more deaths than normal in the first two weeks of August. Many of the deaths resulted from cardiovascular complications among the elderly. As heat waves become more commonplace in the future, so will the number of heat strokes and the onset of other cardiovascular problems. Higher summertime temperatures also increase tropospheric ozone concentrations which in turn affects people with asthma and causes lung and heart damage. Increases in the levels of photochemical pollutants like ozone are associated with a warming world.

Habitat modification also results from climate change and alters the regional prevalence of certain vector-borne diseases. A warmer environment and the accompanying incidence of extreme weather events will continue to affect the strength and distribution of certain diseases that favor standing water. The history of humankind both past and present has shown us that heat waves and cold spells as well as floods and droughts are often accompanied by disease outbreaks. Respiratory infections and other diseases run rampant when people are forced into crowded shelters due to tropical storms or flooding. In the aftermath of extreme weather events, conditions tend to favor many of the insects, bacteria, viruses and protozoa that spread disease. Higher temperatures and rainfall amounts affect the life cycles of disease carrying insects such as mosquitoes and ticks. Changes in weather affect contagious diseases such as influenza and pneumonia, as well as allergic diseases such as asthma while higher levels of humidity increase the incidence and severity of fungal infections and infestations.

For example, while West Nile encephalitis virus is not new, it recently caught the attention of health officials in the United States. First appearing in New York during the summer of 1999, West Nile killed seven citizens. The symptoms of this disease range from muscle weakness and mental confusion to brain damage and death. For most victims, however, the effects are mild and include headaches, swollen glands, rash, and aching muscles resembling the symptoms that accompany the flu. West Nile encephalitis is spread by birds that have been infected by mosquitoes carrying the virus. The first documentation of infected birds in the U.S. took place in Georgia and the Carolinas. By 2001, as many as twenty states east of the Mississippi River had detected the diseased birds. While less than one percent of mosquitoes carry the virus, those that can live from one summer to the next as a result of warmer winters are the cause for the continuity of the disease from year to year.

To continue reading click here The Impact of Climate Change on Human Health

Quoting 207. FunnelVortex:



Well duh.

But I think the Erika Remnant Low may have a chance once it crosses the Florida peninsula and enters the Atlantic. Small chance, but still.
The 1017 low is part of a weak trough and is currently dissipating, along with most of the earlier convection. It looks like the west Texas blob is starting to turn into a cutoff low over south Louisiana. The general pattern of western US troughs and in the western Atlantic leaves most of the Southeast in a stagnant weakness. We'll probably see more convection develop in the ex-Erika trough tomorrow just because of the broad easterly flow. This is not going to change much over the next three or four days, leading to the possibility of several bouts of heavy breathing, but not much else. The trough does eventually have to lift out, however, and it's likely to end up off the East Coast. That's when we may see a better chance of something tropical developing. The Gulf is just not a desirable home site for a tropical cyclone right now, but the Atlantic might be a different story.
Quoting 225. stormpetrol:

We had some kind of freak squall in Grand Cayman this morning around 8:35am, after I dropped my son to work and was on my way home, I saw a garbage can flying about 30 feet in the air, then I heard what I thought was gunshots, when I realize it was tree branches snapping and dropping to the ground, had me a bit scared to be honest I estimated the winds to be between 40-50mph , but they same so destructive! Anyways turned out to be another hot sunny day! Just thought I'd share, weather can sure change fast!!


Sounds like microbursts/downdrafts. They are terrifying: they come out of nowhere, are gone in 30 seconds and wreak tremendous damage. I went through one 4 years ago on the lake. There seems to be no explanation until you have a couple hours to think it through.
Quoting 226. akailm:

How about the twilight denial zone,if that's the reference?memory lane again tho.
Yes, that's the reference, but the joke was to replace "Twilight" with "Denial". It's tough to have a good joke if I have to explain it. :-)
Has the blog shut down for the season already?? :P
Quoting 225. stormpetrol:

We had some kind of freak squall in Grand Cayman this morning around 8:35am, after I dropped my son to work and was on my way home, I saw a garbage can flying about 30 feet in the air, then I heard what I thought was gunshots, when I realize it was tree branches snapping and dropping to the ground, had me a bit scared to be honest I estimated the winds to be between 40-50mph , but they same so destructive! Anyways turned out to be another hot sunny day! Just thought I'd share, weather can sure change fast!!
That explains it then. All of my Alabama thunderstorms have moved to the Caymans. :-) Your description is what I see three or four times a year here. Even though you hear about the damage that tornadoes cause here, the cumulative damage from these straight line winds is usually more than any common tornado. It does get a bit scary watching branches break off the tree in the back yard and wondering when the whole tree is coming down. Sounds like you guys had a time of it today.
Quoting 225. stormpetrol:

We had some kind of freak squall in Grand Cayman this morning around 8:35am, after I dropped my son to work and was on my way home, I saw a garbage can flying about 30 feet in the air, then I heard what I thought was gunshots, when I realize it was tree branches snapping and dropping to the ground, had me a bit scared to be honest I estimated the winds to be between 40-50mph , but they same so destructive! Anyways turned out to be another hot sunny day! Just thought I'd share, weather can sure change fast!!


Hi

I posted about that at lunch time. My weather station recorded a wind gust of 43 mph at 8:42. It took down a 25 foot Washingtonian tree in my yard, broke a lot of limbs and threw my patio furniture around. A big casuarina tree also blew down at Caribbean Paradise blocking the road.

Lucky no one was killed. My wife was 5 minutes behind me this morning and had to turn around. I missed it. Close call.
Quoting 223. neverhappensinflorid:

what happened to all the rain from erica we were supposed to have here in new smyrna beach florida the past 3 days... another mix up i guess

Yeah, ex-Erika turned out not to have any more gumption than the real Erika. That's a good thing though, right? You were nervous about getting hit with Erika when it was a TS, and that didn't happen. A lot of people were nervous about getting more flooding and, in general, that didn't happen. If a forecast has to fail, that's a good fail.
235. SLU
Quoting 233. kmanislander:



Hi

I posted about that at lunch time. My weather station recorded a wind gust of 43 mph at 8:42. It took down a 25 foot Washingtonian tree in my yard, broke a lot of limbs and threw my patio furniture around. A big casuarina tree also blew down at Caribbean Paradise blocking the road.

Lucky no one was killed. My wife was 5 minutes behind me this morning and had to turn around. I missed it. Close call.

I think I crossed you on the road headed into town, but wasn't sure, after it was over I took a drive and looked like some were moving a big pine limb or limbs that had broken off by the South Sound Cemetary
Quoting 227. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hello everyone. Good Evening. Since it is a slow weather night I thought I would share with the blog an editorial from the Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting by two of my professors in Meteorology at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Dr. Richard Snow and Dr. Mary Snow titled: "The Impact of Climate Change on Human Health"

Climate change is impacting human health. An obvious effect of a warmer environment is more frequent and severe heat waves. During the European heat wave of 2003, there were an estimated 35,000 more deaths than normal in the first two weeks of August. Many of the deaths resulted from cardiovascular complications among the elderly. As heat waves become more commonplace in the future, so will the number of heat strokes and the onset of other cardiovascular problems. Higher summertime temperatures also increase tropospheric ozone concentrations which in turn affects people with asthma and causes lung and heart damage. Increases in the levels of photochemical pollutants like ozone are associated with a warming world.

Habitat modification also results from climate change and alters the regional prevalence of certain vector-borne diseases. A warmer environment and the accompanying incidence of extreme weather events will continue to affect the strength and distribution of certain diseases that favor standing water. The history of humankind both past and present has shown us that heat waves and cold spells as well as floods and droughts are often accompanied by disease outbreaks. Respiratory infections and other diseases run rampant when people are forced into crowded shelters due to tropical storms or flooding. In the aftermath of extreme weather events, conditions tend to favor many of the insects, bacteria, viruses and protozoa that spread disease. Higher temperatures and rainfall amounts affect the life cycles of disease carrying insects such as mosquitoes and ticks. Changes in weather affect contagious diseases such as influenza and pneumonia, as well as allergic diseases such as asthma while higher levels of humidity increase the incidence and severity of fungal infections and infestations.

For example, while West Nile encephalitis virus is not new, it recently caught the attention of health officials in the United States. First appearing in New York during the summer of 1999, West Nile killed seven citizens. The symptoms of this disease range from muscle weakness and mental confusion to brain damage and death. For most victims, however, the effects are mild and include headaches, swollen glands, rash, and aching muscles resembling the symptoms that accompany the flu. West Nile encephalitis is spread by birds that have been infected by mosquitoes carrying the virus. The first documentation of infected birds in the U.S. took place in Georgia and the Carolinas. By 2001, as many as twenty states east of the Mississippi River had detected the diseased birds. While less than one percent of mosquitoes carry the virus, those that can live from one summer to the next as a result of warmer winters are the cause for the continuity of the disease from year to year.

To continue reading click here The Impact of Climate Change on Human Health



They're back.
Quoting 236. stormpetrol:


I think I crossed you on the road headed into town, but wasn't sure, after it was over I took a drive and looked like some were moving a big pine limb or limbs that had broken off by the South Sound Cemetary


My wife said it was Caribbean Paradise but the cemetery is right next door. Could have been the same incident.
Quoting 231. JrWeathermanFL:

Has the blog shut down for the season already?? :P
Yes, it has, and it's all your fault. :-)

Just the usual lethargy we see after a round of hyperventilation and extreme arm flapping. It has been a common ailment here over the last couple of years. All it will take is the right blob in the right place and traffic will miraculously increase again.
Quoting 239. sar2401:

Yes, it has, and it's all your fault. :-)

Just the usual lethargy we see after a round of hyperventilation and extreme arm flapping. It has been a common ailment here over the last couple of years. All it will take is the right blob in the right place and traffic will miraculously increase again.


Just wait until the cold fronts come down and stir up trouble :-)
Quoting 237. Kenfa03:


They're back.
Who left?
Quoting 240. kmanislander:



Just wait until the cold fronts come down and stir up trouble :-)


Or when the huge Godzilla El Ninio Winter Storms start to hit


Looking at this looks like Fred wants to do a 180 and head back to the Cape Verde Is
Quoting 242. FunnelVortex:



Or when the huge Godzilla El Ninio Winter Storms start to hit


That too. Interesting to see what that does to our "winter" with the fronts.
Quoting 240. kmanislander:



Just wait until the cold fronts come down and stir up trouble :-)
Cold front? What's a cold front? Oh, you mean those things that cause the daytime high to fall below 90. I sure hope they'll come back again sometime. :-)
While most eyes were watching the tropics for chances of tropical storm force winds and rain, I (and the rest of Western Washington) got walloped by a historic summer storm Saturday(credit: Dr. Cliff Mass). Thankfully I only lost power for a few hours. Which was fine, because I was at an outdoor supporters group match in prep for Derby day. The wind was so strong, I had to use my wheelchair so I didn't fall over and dislocate anything! Also, watching people attempt to play soccer in 45 mph winds, and torrential rain was priceless. Thankfully, the Emerald City Supporters beat the Timbers Army (woot!), and the Sounders beat the Timbers on Sunday (double woot!).

I find it interesting that a mid latitude cyclone may have brought more damage in August to the US than a tropical cyclone.

Quoting 245. sar2401:

Cold front? What's a cold front? Oh, you mean those things that cause the daytime high to fall below 90. I sure hope they'll come back again sometime. :-)


Actually it can get "cold" here for us warm bloodied people. High winds, big waves on the West coast with low seventies during the day and sixties at night. Freezing !!. Not to mention wind chill BRRRR.

Sweater weather in the evenings :-)
Evening to all. I'm only dipping into the blog for a short while to say it was hot, Hot, HOT today on New Providence. Today's recorded high was 91, but it felt much hotter.

I'm glad to see the CVIs survived their record-breaking visit from Fred. Hopefully the rest of this season's storms will do no more damage than that seen in the eastern isles ...
Quoting 231. JrWeathermanFL:

Has the blog shut down for the season already?? :P


Ahh, we're just lying around on big pillows in the breeze, leisurely peeling grapes, resting up until the MDR comes screaming alive in 5 or 6 days. Run fetch us a pitcher of Sangria, good laddie.
Quoting 218. hurricanes2018:



my new dog sleep a lot in this hot weather in the northeast in new haven,conn its 75F right now and more hot weather for wednesday and thursday!!
Pretty new dog!
Good night folks.
Quoting 244. kmanislander:



That too. Interesting to see what that does to our "winter" with the fronts.


Well I know for sure I am gonna love this winter with the El Ninio and all. :)

Been wanting a good winter storm for a while. :)
Quoting 241. sar2401:

Who left?


I dunno. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Quoting 248. BahaHurican:

Evening to all. I'm only dipping into the blog for a short while to say it was hot, Hot, HOT today on New Providence. Today's recorded high was 91, but it felt much hotter.

I'm glad to see the CVIs survived their record-breaking visit from Fred. Hopefully the rest of this season's storms will do no more damage than that seen in the eastern isles ...


sup Baha....wasn't quite 90 here today...but humid enough for sure...especially when I was mowing our lawn and the neighbors...
Quoting 253. Naga5000:



I dunno. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


I think he was refering to the AGW crowd.
Quoting 255. FunnelVortex:



I think he was refering to the AGW crowd.


Oh that I understand. But we never left, we are always watching. Dun dun dun!
Quoting 231. JrWeathermanFL:

Has the blog shut down for the season already?? :P
I think some people believe so .... lol ...
Quoting 235. SLU:


It's like the heaviest rainfall just converged on Dominica .... :o/
Quoting 231. JrWeathermanFL:

Has the blog shut down for the season already?? :P



has we are now in SEP in vary strong EL Nino year hurricane season are no too shut down vary early





the last time hurricane season has shut down early was OCT 28th so will see if we can get any more name storms for SEP or if SEP hurricane season really shuts down
259. vis0



Quoting 258. Tazmanian:




has we are now in SEP in vary strong EL Nino year hurricane season are no too shut down vary early





the last time hurricane season has shut down early was OCT 28th so will see if we can get any more name storms for SEP or if SEP hurricane season really shuts down


For a couple minutes I was trying to think what meteorological acronym SEP stood for...then saw OCT...I are not brihgt.
Never Fear
The Watchers Are Here
Quoting 204. pureet1948:



I suppose the West GOMEX is a spot where the shear is tolerable?


Shear is expected to die down in the gulf...for a little bit at least
263. SLU
Quoting 246. Seattleite:

While most eyes were watching the tropics for chances of tropical storm force winds and rain, I (and the rest of Western Washington) got walloped by a historic summer storm Saturday(credit: Dr. Cliff Mass). Thankfully I only lost power for a few hours. Which was fine, because I was at an outdoor supporters group match in prep for Derby day. The wind was so strong, I had to use my wheelchair so I didn't fall over and dislocate anything! Also, watching people attempt to play soccer in 45 mph winds, and torrential rain was priceless. Thankfully, the Emerald City Supporters beat the Timbers Army (woot!), and the Sounders beat the Timbers on Sunday (double woot!).

I find it interesting that a mid latitude cyclone may have brought more damage in August to the US than a tropical cyclone.


I guess I wasn't paying attention or something because I never even heard it happened. That was quite a storm for any time there let alone August. The Pacific Northwest versions of hurricanes usually don't start cranking up until about Thanksgiving. At least the rain should help with the wildfire threat.
Quoting 261. K8eCane:

Never Fear
The Watchers Are Here


More than you know.
Quoting 264. sar2401:

I guess I wasn't paying attention or something because I never even heard it happened. That was quite a storm for any time there let alone August. The Pacific Northwest versions of hurricanes usually don't start cranking up until about Thanksgiving. At least the rain should help with the wildfire threat.


The rain hardly got over the Cascades
Kilo looks like it could rack up a high ACE value, incredible to think after it struggled so long to organize. Persistence pays off.

This one is big enough to get named. I think I'll call it Blobus Ohmyus

Quoting 265. Grothar:



More than you know.


8-)
Quoting 245. sar2401:

Cold front? What's a cold front? Oh, you mean those things that cause the daytime high to fall below 90. I sure hope they'll come back again sometime. :-)


In SW Alabama, we don't even get below 90 hardly, last week was the first time since we began embracing the 90's in late spring.
Pressure drop expected along the east coast this week.
Alright I keep this weather related.

Here is a funktop animation of Mr. Fred: Hey at least there is something to track in the Atlantic, so it's not all dead in an El Nino year.

Quoting 268. Stoopid1:

Kilo looks like it could rack up a high ACE value, incredible to think after it struggled so long to organize. Persistence pays off.


My favorite is Jimena, look how big she is!

Quoting 272. Grothar:

Pressure drop expected along the east coast this week.



Wheres Andy???
Quoting 271. WeatherBAC:



In SW Alabama, we don't even get below 90 hardly, last week was the first time since we began embracing the 90's in late spring.
Nor in SE Alabama. The last time I had a high less than 90 was on May 28. This has been the prototype for the long, hot summer. I'm looking forward to the day when I can finally turn off the A/C and open the windows again. Then we'll have an ice storm. :-)
Quoting 272. Grothar:

Pressure drop expected along the east coast this week.
Hmm...how much in Pascals?
279. SLU
Quoting 257. BahaHurican:

I think some people believe so .... lol ...
It's like the heaviest rainfall just converged on Dominica .... :o/


Yes I saw it coming from the day before. Apparently not the DA met office ....
Quoting 278. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hmm...how much in Pascals?


I don't know, but I might be able to tell you in Rubles or Euros.
Quoting 269. Grothar:

This one is big enough to get named. I think I'll call it Blobus Ohmyus



dude its clearly blobus humongous lol...
any ways


it starting too turn out that TD 14E will be other fail TD for the E PAC and too me thats good that means kevin will be give in too the next cat 4 or cat 5 that haveing to fourm i want kevin too be a strong hurricane with out hiting any one and not a weak TS kevin sounds like a name for a strong hurricane
Quoting 280. sar2401:

Looks like they are well set up for nap time. We've bought all kinds of dog beds for Radar Dog and he still just wants to sleep on the couch, or just flop out on the carpet. He likes going outside to lay in the sun in the early morning. He's going on 13 so Imagine it feels good on his old bones. Maybe I should try that someday. :-)
I don't even bother with dog beds lol. They always end up in the bed. I have a very small couch in my room also that I'll occasionally fall asleep on if I'm watching a movie or something. And somehow they manage to squeeze themselves onto it. It's comedy at its best. The weather has been so hot Tyson comes and lays near the ac vents haha...

Quoting 281. Tazmanian:

since when did dr M blog turn in too a dog show blog ?


Come on Taz, it's weather related. You never heard of the "Dog days of Summer?"
Quoting 286. Grothar:



Come on Taz, it's weather related. You never heard of the "Dog days of Summer?"


It's actually called the "dog days" because Sirius (the Dog Star) is high in the sky during that time.
so far for the E PAC the fail TDs are TD 4E has it moved in too the C PAC be for it can get name TD 8E,TD 12 and now TD 14E so that up too 4 TDs that fail too get name
Quoting 257. BahaHurican:

I think some people believe so .... lol ...
It's like the heaviest rainfall just converged on Dominica .... :o/


Read up on Dominica's climate, and you'll find that radar appearance of activity concentrated on Dominica is not unusual. After investigating the flooding, I was amazed to learn how rainy and lush the island of Dominica is. The capital city is on the "drier" west side of the island on the coast and still averages about 100 inches of rain a year, the rainier east side averages around 200 inches, and apparently the higher terrain jungles average over 300 inches per year. After hearing about this, I suspect that some parts of the island had even much more from Erika but missed official reporting areas, and came sweeping down the mountain side, causing so much damage.

In a climate so used to heavy rains, the rainfall rates must been exceptionally high at times combined with the steep terrain to cause disastrous results.
Quoting 287. FunnelVortex:



It's actually called the "dog days" because Sirius (the Dog Star) is high in the sky during that time.


Learn something new every day.. 👍
Quoting 287. FunnelVortex:



It's actually called the "dog days" because Sirius (the Dog Star) is high in the sky during that time.


Yes. I think I read something about that in 1953. :)

It's true though. many people do not know that.
Quoting 295. Grothar:



Yes. I think I read something about that in 1953. :)

It's true though. many people do not know that.


I was wondering why they called it "dog days" myself before I looked it up.

All about the Dog Star (or Stars, since it is a binary star system).
297. OCF
"Has the blog shut down for the season already?? :P"

Well, there's taking the Southern California attitude: still worth watching the EPac for possible northward trackers. There is, of course, always the massive shield of cool water and stable air offshore. And by tropical/subtropical standards, that water is still cool and that air is still stable, but the water is several degrees warmer than it's supposed to be. We had a run in the last week of nighttime dew points around 70. I know, by east-of-the-Mississippi standards, a 70 dew point is nothing, but we're not really used to that in California.

Anyway: 14-E is a north-tracker, but it just looks too weak to matter. But Jimena is still going to be pretty strong when it starts to recurve. What is it going to do after it recurves?
I know that the weather channel owns Wunderground, but I must say that their decision to fire Vivian Brown was one of the most horrible decisions I have ever seen. She was one of the people who helped keep TWC afloat all of these years, she provided weather with a smile and told us the weather for 30 years, I hope weathernation or accuweather picks her up because she deserves to still be in the public sphere. Regardless, hopefully they reverse this decision when they realize what a mistake was. Off topic a bit I know but...
Quoting 291. Tazmanian:



dos not matter dr m blog is not a dog show blog its a weather blog and i think the mods would agreed with me on that

the picture may not illustrate a "direct weather" event but it clear from the text above the dog pic that its still weather related..... isnt the "effect of temperature" weather related? anyway what the hell do i know ;P party pooper it is
Quoting 296. FunnelVortex:



I was wondering why they called it "dog days" myself before I looked it up.

All about the Dog Star (or Stars, since it is a binary star system).


If you have an interest, look up the Dogon tribe in Africa. Their culture is intertwined with Sirius, however, they believe there is another star, yet unseen. Very interesting to read.
Quoting 287. FunnelVortex:



It's actually called the "dog days" because Sirius (the Dog Star) is high in the sky during that time.


Close, but not 100%. Sirius is just rising in the morning (it's the bright blue one that's twinkling, if anyone looks out for this sort of thing), so it's not high in the sky.
Quoting 301. CybrTeddy:



Close, but not 100%. Sirius is just rising in the morning (it's the bright blue one that's twinkling, if anyone looks out for this sort of thing). The Dog Days of Summer are in reference to Sirius rising in the morning, which is a part of Canis Major and a prominent winter-time constellation. It's a sign that fall is about to arrive.


I knew it had something to do with Sirius though..
Quoting 300. Grothar:



If you have an interest, look up the Dogon tribe in Africa. Their culture is intertwined with Sirius, however, they believe there is another star, yet unseen. Very interesting to read.


I think they found hints of a Brown Dwarf in the Sirius system, actually.
Link
Quoting 301. CybrTeddy:



Close, but not 100%. Sirius is just rising in the morning (it's the bright blue one that's twinkling, if anyone looks out for this sort of thing), so it's not high in the sky.


Then we have the Horse Latitudes of the Caribbean:



That fresh hay looks reaaaaaly comfy.
Quoting 281. Tazmanian:

since when did dr M blog turn in too a dog show blog ?


The other night it was a big gator blog. At least it's not as scary tonight.

Quoting 297. OCF:

"Has the blog shut down for the season already?? :P"

Well, there's taking the Southern California attitude: still worth watching the EPac for possible northward trackers. There is, of course, always the massive shield of cool water and stable air offshore. And by tropical/subtropical standards, that water is still cool and that air is still stable, but the water is several degrees warmer than it's supposed to be. We had a run in the last week of nighttime dew points around 70%uFFFD. I know, but east-of-the-Mississippi standards, a 70%uFFFD dew point is nothing, but we're not really used to that in California.

Anyway: 14-E is a north-tracker, but it just looks too weak to matter. But Jimena is still going to be pretty strong when it starts to recurve. What is it going to do after it recurves?


Not sure if it was Jimena or Ignacio, but I believe it's Ignacio that might fuel an Alaskan storm as it goes extratropical. GFS hints at this, maybe some severe weather across the extreme northern plains down the line?

You can see Ignacio and Jimena here


And here


And then


Quoting 266. sar2401:

I'm impressed that you were able to figure it out at all.


Well at least it's typed...lord knows how much my eyes would be able to take if we had to write on a screen to make posts like signing your name after swiping a credit card.
Quoting 264. sar2401:

I guess I wasn't paying attention or something because I never even heard it happened. That was quite a storm for any time there let alone August. The Pacific Northwest versions of hurricanes usually don't start cranking up until about Thanksgiving. At least the rain should help with the wildfire threat.


Everybody I knew here was very happy for the rain. The wind however, is another story. There are numerous trees down still, although the city is getting them evaluated and taken care of relatively quickly. The difference between a normal storm in Thanksgiving and this one involved the foliage. There were plenty of leaves on the trees, thus many were felled. Sadly, the storm took the lives of 2 victims who were hit by falling trees.

Quoting 277. sar2401:

Nor in SE Alabama. The last time I had a high less than 90 was on May 28. This has been the prototype for the long, hot summer. I'm looking forward to the day when I can finally turn off the A/C and open the windows again. Then we'll have an ice storm. :-)


And here we finally agreed to turn on the heat and close the windows. The low tonight is forecast for 57F, and a high tomorrow of 66F. Nothing but clouds and rain until Friday! I know many of you won't agree, but 65F and cloudy is darn near perfect for me! Sure beats September temps back in Tallahassee.
307. 882MB
Quoting 235. SLU:




Hey there buddy, nice radar loop of Erika, incredible seeing that southern portion just crawling over Dominica, May they recover soon. Since you brought that radar up, I just noticed that Tropical Satellite Archives, realeased Erika's full lifespan from invest, until upon reaching the Gulf. Pretty cool loop to look at, you can see all her struggles and comebacks. Seriously what a storm that was to track.

Link
Quoting 303. FunnelVortex:



I think they found hints of a Brown Dwarf in the Sirius system, actually.


Which would make us wonder how they knew about it???
Quoting 273. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Alright I keep this weather related.

Here is a funktop animation of Mr. Fred: Hey at least there is something to track in the Atlantic, so it's not all dead in an El Nino year.



Looks like glob of mashed potatoes- well that's the Atlantic for you...
Notice how you can see a little poodle in the formation




The last three entries of the blog have fewer comments than the one entry before them...any more lively and a funeral is bound to break out. I guess all the Carolina bloggers went home, right? :p

Alright I gotta get some sleep, didn't get much last night. Later dud[ett]es.

Quoting 310. Grothar:

Notice how you can see a little poodle in the formation







The top map looks like Marge Simpson doing leg lifts.
Quoting 286. Grothar:




Come on Taz, it's weather related. You never heard of the "Dog days of Summer?"
Not everybody here come from the USA, you got to realice that. There are sayings, idioms, common to you that aren't common for the rest of the bloggers. I Heard of '' Dog day of Summer before", but only in novels, essays, and movies.
Can we just just fast forward to June 1st, 2016?

I'm going to be leaving for college this Saturday and probably won't post much more unless there's a big threat to the US or some other very significant hurricane. These quiet season doldrums can't last much longer, and although I never fully let my guard down, I know both me and many other people are realizing there's a good chance we will probably have a much more riveting season in 2016. Hope you all can stay sane.... cheers
Quoting 309. opal92nwf:


Looks like glob of mashed potatoes- well that's the Atlantic for you...
Well it's surprised, better tan expected. Remember the super "hype" 2013, the "nia" year. It was expected to be a super hurricane year. Well it ended up as a "fiasco" for forecasters in general," and for all the "Hurricane lovers" , including me, of course.
Quoting 295. Grothar:



Yes. I think I read something about that in 1953. :)

It's true though. many people do not know that.
And remember, Dog Days will end when the mockingbird sings again. Dog Days are known for unrelenting heat and humidity, and when I finally hear that mockingbird again, I breathe a sign of relief. Excellent weatherman, he is. See, that's on topic...
Clear as a bell. MJO where are you?
317. SLU
Quoting 307. 882MB:



Hey there buddy, nice radar loop of Erika, incredible seeing that southern portion just crawling over Dominica, May they recover soon. Since you brought that radar up, I just noticed that Tropical Satellite Archives, realeased Erika's full lifespan from invest, until upon reaching the Gulf. Pretty cool loop to look at, you can see all her struggles and comebacks. Seriously what a storm that was to track.

Link


A good learning experience for sure
somebody take over the watch because im going to sleep. I do love this blog tho because if i wake up at 3 am and cant sleep, someone is here or has been here
nite 4 now yall and goodnight pooches and cute little ferrets and tazzes
320. 882MB
What nice late night warm gulf showers, in this area to fall asleep in. Landfall in T-Minus 10,9,8,7,6,5,4... Im going to bed Goodnight. :)

Quoting 111. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

all things shall past treat each day as if it were a gift I watched the sats and new ya all were getting pounded nothing more I could do but wish it to pass quickly which it did but not until wrecking your island


Many thanks for the countless Thoughts, Prayers and heart felt sentiments which have been spared for the Nature Island -Dominica since the onslaught of Erika on that Fateful day of the 27th of August. The entire island is reeling from the deadly and severe impacts of the storm. Such a significant death toll was in no way expected -but it highlights the fact that it only takes one, and in fact past behaviour of tropical systems on impact at any given location is no guarantee of future effects/ outcomes. We are now on the long road to recovery. While the devastation is staggering & quite incalculable in many parts of the island it will certainly not prove insurmountable by any means with the resolve of steel which has been emboldened into so many of our people.
As I had previously voiced at alternate correspondence sites- I am indeed Counting My BLESSINGS!...

To begin with I must acknowledge as so many wise Dominicans have and are doing - the GOODNESS OF THE LORD JESUS CHRIST OUR GOD! SINCE WE INDEED ADMIT THAT THINGS COULD HAVE BEEN SO MUCH WORSE...- THERE IS AN ENEMY BUT GOD IS & WILL ALWAYS BE GOOD (JN10:10)- HENCE GIVEN HOW TERRIBLE AND EXTREME THE CONDITIONS WERE ALONG WITH SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS -A LOT MORE OF US COULD HAVE PERISHED IN THE STORM...

-From my own unofficial precipitation records my private rain guage equipment recorded roughly 18.5 inches of rainfall (within no more than a 9 hour period - & the bulk of the rain having fallen between 3a.m Thursday to 11am)...a total which is clearly consistent with the level and sheer scale of flood destruction which was witnessed on the Nature Isle...Of course, no doubt higher accumulations were received in higher elevations particularly in the interior of the island.

To say this type of Storm impact and subsequent devastation has been significant would be a gross understatement, this entire ordeal has been nothing short of a catastrophe -unprecedented/ historic even in comparison to Hurricane David based solely on the deadly & severe hydrological effects caused. 1979 Hurricane David was more intense only in regards to its ferocious wind speeds and associated structural damage caused. I truly hope that the Name Erika -though only adjudged a tropical storm upon impact in Dominica gets retired by the WMO -quite similar to what obtained in Houston, Texas with Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 which was retired.

Additionally as has been previously cited but -In no way can be overstated, overemphasized or over-acknowledged... a Massive word of thanks & continued appreciation must be given to All of the utility crews who have worked so hard in very trying and almost impossible situations to get Telecoms connections/ bandwith access, power, water in certain cases, and general communications/ optic networks back up and running in the soonest possible time frames. The entire island is indebted to you guys...Absolutely HERCULEAN EFFORTS OVERALL- GIVEN THE EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES INVOLVED!
Blessings to All!
Quoting 298. dfwstormwatch:

I know that the weather channel owns Wunderground, but I must say that their decision to fire Vivian Brown was one of the most horrible decisions I have ever seen. She was one of the people who helped keep TWC afloat all of these years, she provided weather with a smile and told us the weather for 30 years, I hope weathernation or accuweather picks her up because she deserves to still be in the public sphere. Regardless, hopefully they reverse this decision when they realize what a mistake was. Off topic a bit I know but...What I can't believe they done that to her,she really good
Quoting 312. HuracanTaino:

Not everybody here come from the USA, you got to realice that. There are sayings, idioms, common to you that aren't common for the rest of the bloggers. I Heard of '' Dog day of Summer before", but only in novels, essays, and movies.



Having lived a good portion of my life outside of the US I am quite well aware of that. Even though I was born here, English is not really my first language.

Quoting 290. Jedkins01:



Read up on Dominica's climate, and you'll find that radar appearance of activity concentrated on Dominica is not unusual. After investigating the flooding, I was amazed to learn how rainy and lush the island of Dominica is. The capital city is on the "drier" west side of the island on the coast and still averages about 100 inches of rain a year, the rainier east side averages around 200 inches, and apparently the higher terrain jungles average over 300 inches per year. After hearing about this, I suspect that some parts of the island had even much more from Erika but missed official reporting areas, and came sweeping down the mountain side, causing so much damage.

In a climate so used to heavy rains, the rainfall rates must been exceptionally high at times combined with the steep terrain to cause disastrous results.


Although we are used to very heavy rainfall & occasionally even extreme rainfall events; the resultant impacts which have occurred in the past were usually with little to minor effects & inconvenience caused to communities down stream or on the general infrastructure. Besides heavy rainfall events are typically spread out -usually over a day or a couple of days in duration making the intensity and immediate impact of the rainfall event a lot more manageable island-wide.
However, in unprecedented rainfall events such as what occurred with Erika's almost sheer apocalyptic Cyclonic rainfall accumulations - the eventual rainfall totals for parts of the interior of the island could have easily doubled or even surpassed way more than that of the 18.5 inches which I measured along the North East coast.

Moreover, given the climatological implications this year in the Atlantic basin from a strengthening El Nino event and the like (a drier than normal rainy season thus far, coupled with hardening of top soil surfaces in many parts of the island)-It was becoming increasingly evident that any effects from Tropical systems likely to bring high rainfall totals would have ultimately been disastrous. My worst fears were fully realized given the combined factors -in light of my island's almost notorious hinterland topography and its given pre-disposition to heavy rainfall (Orographic, as well as convectional/cyclonic) and -compounded by island-wide higher than normal levels of aridity coupled with top soil hardening due to a drier than normal wet season preceded by an extended dry season. It was an extremely treacherous dynamic which inspite of the island healthy eco-systems, watersheds and adequately forested regions made it a lot more vulnerable this time around- not to mention the fact as has already been observed that the heaviest rainfall just seemed to converge right upon Dominica (courtesy of Erika's Dmax episode)... Sadly, a similar recipe for disaster -so to speak- also exists in the neighbouring Leeward islands to the North of Dominica and the Windward islands to our south who have also been suffering hydrologically from a much drier than usual rainy season.
May God continue to Bless us All as this Hurricane season gets to its climatological peak!

Quoting 323. Grothar:



Having lived a good portion of my life outside of the US I am quite well aware of that. Even though I was born here, English is not really my first language.



Pre eternity intergalactic or yet an earlier discourse?
Quoting 243. stormpetrol:



Looking at this looks like Fred wants to do a 180 and head back to the Cape Verde Is


It looks like that upper level low that was making rain and storms over SE TX/SW LA is moving east, if I'm reading the animation right. (Hope so.)
Just did a blog update on the Atlantic tropics, as usual falling on the night shift....

I talk about weakening Fred. But also more interestingly, I think the surface trough offshore of the eastern US which extends into the remnant of Erika could evolve into a subtropical cyclone east of Bermuda after 5 days (details in the blog update).
Quoting 243. stormpetrol:



Looking at this looks like Fred wants to do a 180 and head back to the Cape Verde Is

That's not Fred doing a 180. Its his high cloud tops getting pushed back eastward while his low-level center continues west...Fred's about to get sheared apart...
329. vis0

Quoting 300. Grothar:



If you have an interest, look up the Dogon tribe in Africa. Their culture is intertwined with Sirius, however, they believe there is another star, yet unseen. Very interesting to read.
my reply is at my zilly pg cmmnt#104 otherwise i might get a week long ban ...even if its on science that will be discovered in a few decades. (not even linking it, if one cares one will find it, just ask archeologists)

Weather question, Does the formation & motion/direction of TS in the Pacific help in determining where El Nino'
s energy will be funnel towards?

Example:: if more TS form north of a specific LatLine does that lead to more precipitation for a certain area of the western North America region...i can hear webberweather53 searching for historic records of TS motion, strengths, amounts, ACE, clusters on the months prior to El Nino yrs.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON KILO (1517)
15:00 PM JST September 2 2015
===============================
Midway Islands Waters

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Kilo (955 hPa) located at 24.4N 179.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS 24.6N 178.8E - 80 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Midway Islands Waters
48 HRS 24.0N 177.8E - 85 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Midway Islands Waters
72 HRS 22.9N 175.6E - 95 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Midway Islands Waters
Last
332. vis0


For being a Tropical system Ex-Erika has little moisture coming down, west of Erika not as much HEAVY wide spread.
Interesting..about this time next week............................................
hear.a.rooster
mdr looks shut down for now gfs leftovers of erika seem to just hang offshore the se coast for the mid term gfs
336. MahFL
Hmmm, Erika blowing up a couple of counties to my west :

nice rocket launch cape canaveral seems successful heading ese .
This ex-Erika?

Quoting 336. MahFL:

Hmmm, Erika blowing up a couple of counties to my west :




Tropical systems over land tend to be more concentrated at night and dispersed during the day.
sometimes decaying systems seek out warm water. watching closely to see if the leftovers try to move over the gulf stream
hard to talk about global warming since the hype monster (television) got it well covered
Ex-Erika may head for Savannah by this evening.

Fred looks pretty in the sunlight



Not so great in IR

LOL at the adbot blogs about dental braces and men's fashion and stockings.
Good Morning
Here's the view from Naples of the high-altitude smoke trail left by the 6:18 AM launch of an Atlas V rocket from the Cape, carrying the Navy's MUOS 4 satellite. These were from about, respectively, 20 minutes and 25 minutes after launch (forgive the quality; handheld cellphone):



Quoting 342. islander101010:

sometimes decaying systems seek out warm water. watching closely to see if the leftovers try to move over the gulf stream


You may be right. The NAM and WRF take ex-Erika almost due east just on the Georgia-Florida line and out to sea tonight.

NAM 12 km 06Z Thursday



WRF same time


349. MahFL
Ex Erika :

Good Morning All. In terms of the Atlantic we are 8 days from the peak and the only thing out there at the moment is Fred spiraling towards death............Notwithstanding the current lull, we kind-of had an "early" peak thus far as African waves actually generated a storm cluster of 3 storms (including Erika and now Fred) over the past few weeks.

Now we wait to see whether Africa can spin up another one or two over the next 3-4 weeks before shear starts increasing rapidly due to the El Nino come October............Don't have a clue as to whether this will materialize.


That's at least a Cat 2 invest MahFL
352. MahFL
Oh...from JAX NWS :

"MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A MID/UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND RETROGRADE INTO THE
GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK..."
Good morning wunderbloggers! If there is one thing that I have to say about anything right now it is that anyone who lives for surfing should be at Hawaii right now.
Quoting 351. TheBigBanana:

That's at least a Cat 2 invest MahFL




there no such thing has a cat 2 invest
Quoting 348. TheBigBanana:



You may be right. The NAM and WRF take ex-Erika almost due east just on the Georgia-Florida line and out to sea tonight.

NAM 12 km 06Z Thursday



WRF same time



I believe we're finally seeing the end of ex-Erika's low and trough. Now that the low has moved inland, it's going to rapidly fill and dissipate. The trough will go with it. The low is so weak that I just don't think it can survive the trip and make it out into the Atlantic intact. I've been surprised in the past when this kind of forecast goes awry, but the models aren't going to handle this situation well.

The upper level trough now over Texas and Louisiana will drift eastward over the next two days and increase the rain chances along the Gulf coast and Florida. The real fly in the ointment is that this trough will get far enough east to combine with whatever's still left from the Erika trough by Friday and then get pushed back west in front of a rapidly expanding Atlantic ridge. The resulting ULL will get cut off somewhere between the Panhandle and central Mississippi. The whole mess will remain weak, but it will have enough energy to set off thunderstorms in the Gulf and the coast. That will probably start Monday, but now we're getting too far in the future for a very accurate forecast. Suffice to say that it will rain somewhere in Florida and the central Gulf, and the ULL may not leave for a number of days. Continuing weird weather for the Southeast.
There was quite a nasty system over my area the last two hours, which is finally letting up. Thank goodness too, because it had just covered the whole street with rain!
As we noted yesterday afternoon with the radar-spin just beneath the Florida Big Bend, it was freaky because "Erika" was supposed to come ashore in these parts around the same time as the last-minute cyclonic circulation spun up and we even got a little banding feature come ashore (with a sprinkle of rain an no wind). It was ex-Erika waving "by-bye" and letting us know she was still around in one form or another. And even now trying to take a stab at a "Land-TD"; freaky; just freaky................. :)



And she is still waving by-bye; look at those two little mini-bands in the gulf streaming up along with the blob..........Lol.

Southeast sector loop
Halfway through the climatological Atlantic season, but I think we've probably already seen close to two thirds of the activity we'll have this year. So far things seem to be going almost exactly as predicted- below normal. Historically hostile Caribbean. Generally unfavorable MDR. A couple brief hurricanes that managed to find holes in the Atlantic armor. I predicted 8 named storms for the season... That may be a storm or two low. I could see 2-3 storms this month and figure one in October or November, most likely the former since the basin will become even more hostile earlier than usual with El Nino. We'll see though, never know until it's over.

Just figured the halfway point was a good way to reassess where we're at. Also, Northern Hemisphere ACE is quickly approaching its yearly normal already thanks to the blockbuster Pacifc season.
Multiple models have Typhoon Kilo becoming the strongest cyclone this year...
361. FOREX
Quoting 352. MahFL:

Oh...from JAX NWS :

"MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A MID/UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND RETROGRADE INTO THE
GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK..."
picture of Quint from jaws please.
Quoting 354. Tazmanian:





there no such thing has a cat 2 invest
Good morning Taz!
Surprised there hasn't been a special weather statement made out. Even more rain has been drenching my area.
So far this season. Up until this point the Atlantic Subtropical ridge has been strong, thus is why you have been seeing the anomolous windshear records in the Caribbean Sea, which makes sense considering we are in an El Nino. The pattern has been a dangerous one in terms of steering as the western edge of the ridge has been right along the East Coast with the with the amplitude of the trough axis oscillating back and forth between the Great Lakes and the East Coast. I think had Erika survived the windshear and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola it would have either been a close brush with the East Coast or a sure strike somewhere along the East Coast, if not even to Florida as well. Now as we are in meteorological Fall, we will probably start seeing more potent troughs amplifying across the East Coast, along with the changing of the seasons will come a threat for severe weather, especially with El Nino continuing to strengthen, as far as the West Coast of the U.S. goes it remains to be seen how this El Nino will impact places like California.

Relatively quiet out there in the tropics .
Quoting 356. ElConando:

There was quite a nasty system over my area the last two hours, which is finally letting up. Thank goodness too, because it had just covered the whole street with rain!


Raining heavily here again, with constant lightning. Funny, not much shows up on radar.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown
NNNN
Quoting 357. weathermanwannabe:

As we noted yesterday afternoon with the radar-spin just beneath the Florida Big Bend, it was freaky because "Erika" was supposed to come ashore in these parts around the same time as the last-minute cyclonic circulation spun up and we even got a little banding feature come ashore (with a sprinkle of rain an no wind). It was ex-Erika waving "by-bye" and letting us know she was still around in one form or another. And even now trying to take a stab at a "Land-TD"; freaky; just freaky................. :)






I think Erika wants to take a dip in the Atlantic.

Quoting 369. Grothar:



I think Erika wants to take a dip in the Atlantic.




You never know; that would be something if it did happen and something was able to spin up: shear is not too bad off the Florida coast and here is the current surface vort over North Florida..............Any route for the remnants north of the FL/GA line however would be met with much higher shear and a no-go.







Quoting 367. Grothar:



Raining heavily here again, with constant lightning. Funny, not much shows up on radar.


They're rotating and staying in the same area for a while. The storms are north of me for now. Let's see if we get some more in the afternoon. At the very least thede storms should pretty much put North East Dade and the coast of Broward closer to almost normal rain levels.
Quoting 360. Camerooski:

Multiple models have Typhoon Kilo becoming the strongest cyclone this year...


Kilo is reminding me of Ioke. Make that run across the Pacific, Kilo-kun.
Gordon was a storm that never seemed to want to go away. Even though it shows going through central Florida and then coming back. It dropped tremendous amounts of rain even in South Florida for days.



Ivan was another crazy track. I remember the afternoon that it came back over South Florida. No rain, but very blustery for about a half hour.



376. beell

09/02 06Z GFS 200 mb winds, heights-Valid 12Z Wednesday


377. beell
Quoting 369. Grothar:



I think Erika wants to take a dip in the Atlantic.




If a remnant low-level circulation can get kicked off to the south towards the Bahamas & centered under the upper ridge?
378. MahFL
Ex Erika is moving a bit faster now, won't be long before she is back over water.
Quoting 377. beell:



If a remnant low-level circulation can get kicked off to the south towards the Bahamas & centered under the upper ridge?


There is supposed to be a pressure drop of the US this week. It would be interesting to see if shear drops in that area. If it were not such a strong el Nino year, nothing would surprise me if there was development in that area.

These runs have been very consistent about some development off the east coast. And also, runs becoming more insistent on Blobus Ohmyus moving off the African coast.

Quoting 376. beell:


09/02 06Z GFS 200 mb winds, heights-Valid 12Z Wednesday





What do the steering current look like for the upcoming week? Oops, hit the submit button too fast. The steering currents look a little weak to me. If anything is left of the remnants of Erika, it could just stay there off the coast of Florida for awhile. Stalled systems are never good.
You all realize that the Doc or Mr. Henson will be on in a little while and no one will ever see that we have mapped out the whole scenario for the next week!!!!!!!!!! :)

Quoting 377. beell:



If a remnant low-level circulation can get kicked off to the south towards the Bahamas & centered under the upper ridge?


I saw a Major come out of dat scenario once.

But I digress Im a idiot.
Quoting 374. Grothar:

Gordon was a storm that never seemed to want to go away. Even though it shows going through central Florida and then coming back. It dropped tremendous amounts of rain even in South Florida for days.




I believe 1994 Gordon is the deadliest named storm to not be retired. It killed over 1,000 people in Haiti, yet Haiti didn't send a delegate to the WMO event which happens every year after the North Hemisphere's cyclone season ended. Only delegates of countries can request a Hurricane name to be retired under the rules then and now.

I was a toddler during that storm, but I remember hearing stories from my siblings telling me about Gordon. My family couldn't leave the house for two days due to flood waters and due to the fact that the drainage in my folks neighborhood back then was quite poor. It was worse than the Flood in South Florida in 2000 that occured from a tropical disturbance that got trapped over us for a whole day then went into the Atlantic and became a tropical storm.
Quoting 383. Patrap:



I saw a Major come out of dat scenario once.

But I digress Im a idiot.

If I recall... that didn't end well...
Quoting 383. Patrap:



I saw a Major come out of dat scenario once.

But I digress Im a idiot.


Indeed. Though I doubt anything will happen anywhere near that level, if it starts doing stuff in the Atlantic, everyone will keep an eye on it.
Quoting 382. Grothar:

You all realize that the Doc or Mr. Henson will be on in a little while and no one will ever see that we have mapped out the whole scenario for the next week!!!!!!!!!! :)




I sense a loop once x-Erika gets back over water.....
Quoting 385. gator23:


If I recall... that didn't end well...


What didn't end well? lol
Quoting 387. redwagon:



I sense a loop once x-Erika gets back over water.....


Grothar will let us know... first!
Quoting 389. indianrivguy:



Grothar will let us know... first!


Blobulus Lupensis
Throwing up the Florida WV loop (before I get bumped by Mr. Henson) showing all the whirls and swirls around the remnants; all of us are looking a SE GA blog but also lookie at the little swirl in the middle of FL too (just to the North of Orlando)......................Swirl-a-rama out there:




See Yall on the "other side" of the new Blog post................................
#391, WxmWB: other side

While we wait, I noticed some furiously blooming Texas Sage which blooms two weeks before or after a major rainfall, and Centex hasn't had literally a trace since mid-July: we are crunchy dangerous toast, thrown back into severe drought 4 weeks after drowning for 6 weeks. If x-Erika *does* loop, there's a good a chance she'll track straight W as anything and she'd have 4 days to ramp up.

NEW RECORD HOTTEST SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURE IN EASTERN EUROPE: The record hottest September temperature anywhere in Eastern Europe of 38.8 C / 101.8 F was reportedly set at Voznesensk, Ukraine on September 1, 2015.

Link

Multiple European cities reportedly had a new record hottest September temperature.

Link
So let me understand correctly..all the men here have just now figured out that Ex Erika will loop even though I have been saying this since she was deactivated..

Good job..
Quoting 394. ncstorm:

So let me understand correctly..all the men here have just now figured out that Ex Erika will loop even though I have been saying this since she was deactivated..

Good job..


Don't forget women! They watch the weather the same way as us guys.
All the Men?

Lordy, LoL
Quoting 394. ncstorm:

So let me understand correctly..all the men here have just now figured out that Ex Erika will loop even though I have been saying this since she was deactivated..

Good job..


I know of at least 20 of us who've insisted deactivation wasn't Erika's last stand - many of them GOM residents - although I never polled them for demographics.
Quoting 396. Patrap:

All the Men?

Lordy, LoL


Maybe the women didn't get to chime in on Erika's revival since they were shoe-shopping?
The loop de loop (and from a remnant at that) is a rare event but it is the peak period Oh Ye of Little Faith.....Have no idea what will happen downstream but the first indication would have to be a pronounced flare-up of convection once the low/mess gets offshore again. Time will tell but I am not aware of any models hinting at this........It would amount to a surprise spin-up if it did happen unless it festers offshore and the models start to take notice in a few days.
Quoting 387. redwagon:



I sense a loop once x-Erika gets back over water.....


Didn't Bonnie do a loop de loop out in the atlantic one year?
Quoting 399. weathermanwannabe:

The loop de loop (and from a remnant at that) is a rare event but it is the peak period Oh Ye of Little Faith.....Have no idea what will happen downstream but the first indication would have to be a pronounced flare-up of convection once the low/mess gets offshore again. Time will tell but I am not aware of any models hinting at this........It would amount to a surprise spin-up if it did happen unless it festers offshore and the models start to take notice in a few days.


When considering the Odyssey of Erika, anything is possible. NWS JAX noted the possibility of ex-Erika retrograding back west.
Quoting 394. ncstorm:

So let me understand correctly..all the men here have just now figured out that Ex Erika will loop even though I have been saying this since she was deactivated..

Good job..


Who said "all the men"? 'We" means all the bloggers and kids of all ages. Most of the time, we don't know who is a he or she. After all these years, I thought Baha, was a man, I thought RitaEvac, was a woman, and Charlotte was a woman, and I thought redwagon was little boy who knew a heck of a lot about weather.

And to make you feel better, a few days ago when I mentioned the crossing of the remnants into the Atlantic, I had a few pooh, poohs from a certain blogger (not you).
Quoting 394. ncstorm:

So let me understand correctly..all the men here have just now figured out that Ex Erika will loop even though I have been saying this since she was deactivated..

Good job..


Thank you for my morning laugh. (later comments increased it)
gordon was bad up here in e cen fl. . we had wave after wave of heavy showers banding off the atlantic. tornados killed a few near palm bay trailor court it was a direct hit. we ended up with 10 plus inches. what was funny while this was happening gordon just S.W. of naples was a weak and feeble cyclone. it was a nov. storm here is an excellent study of the storm by the noaa http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news/TropicalSt ormGordon1994.pd
Quoting 399. weathermanwannabe:

The loop de loop (and from a remnant at that) is a rare event but it is the peak period Oh Ye of Little Faith.....Have no idea what will happen downstream but the first indication would have to be a pronounced flare-up of convection once the low/mess gets offshore again. Time will tell but I am not aware of any models hinting at this........It would amount to a surprise spin-up if it did happen unless it festers offshore and the models start to take notice in a few days.


Actually, a few of them have.





LOL..beat your chests all you want..I honestly haven't seen anyone posting about Ex Erika doing a loop until today..but its fine..Walmart is having a special on cookies so there's enough to go around..

and Redwagon, shoe shopping?



can Dr Masters explain us in one of his previous entry why we don't get rains in St martin /St Barth / Anguilla?
The rain comes close to our islands (like yesterday afternoon) then nothing!
All the islands around us have rain, but for us us, nothing.
We badly need rain here!
Quoting 408. redwagon:



I thought vis0 was a Martian until a couple months ago. He's hominid, as it turns out.


But truly unique.
during gordon 94 i remember john hope saying that we were entering a new period of increased activity. he was right.
And Mods..

My comment of only "Jesus" was removed yesterday but yet a certain poster from LA can respond with "Lordy" all the time..

Why is that?







Something possibly attempting to get going.

and Redwagon, shoe shopping?

Aw $^*_$! yeah!


Interesting. Peak is approaching. Anything's possible.
Gro,

I have posted about us women on here who get overlook while those of the opposite sex hollered First....I don't know everyone on here but I do know most of the posters genders that were posting today about ex Erika doing a loop and they are male with the exception of Redwagon which was new to me..

but again I didnt see ANYONE posting about Ex Erika doing a loop until today..

Just wanted to note we women provide just as much information which was my point..sometimes we like to hear our kudos too..

I'll go back to work..my post wasn't meant as insulting to anyone nor was that my intention..



Erika better not take her skinny lil butt back out into the Atlantic and swing BACK in to ruin Labor Day weekend....(there is my comment about weather) and secondly....I realize this is a weather blog...but when it is a bit slow, I don't think MODs care if you post a pic of a dog that refuses to go outside due to the{wait for it} WEATHER....and btw...that gator had EVERYTHING to do with weather....it started because of the flood in Charleston....as a woman I would typically take offense to this but someone needs a midol....good grief....(even tho I believe, I guess I cannot make a celestial reference anymore either)
Meanwhile, this from our favorite Central Fl blogger:
Link
420. SLU
Quoting 407. zicoille:

can Dr Masters explain us in one of his previous entry why we don't get rains in St martin /St Barth / Anguilla?
The rain comes close to our islands (like yesterday afternoon) then nothing!
All the islands around us have rain, but for us us, nothing.
We badly need rain here!


Surely must be #climatechange I reckon ;)
If Erika reforms in Atlantic east of Florida. Rubs hands together and laughs wickedly lets get it into New England this hurricane drought up here is longer than I am old mwahahaha >:} last one was 1991 Bob. If like in 1954 or 1869 where there was two strikes in a season you just put that as one single storm in the math we should get hit every ten years.
Quoting 409. SunnyDaysFla:



But truly unique.

I thought all these years: how kind of Mars to assign someone to Earth Weather for us. And: they must drop a lot of acid on Mars.

LOL, maybe that's how to get a new blog kickin' around here: start saying the things that usually only people on doomed planes confess to each other towards the (expected) end of a blog.
Eighty years ago today, the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 made landfall near Long Key, with maximum sustained winds near 185 miles per hour....



Well it's September 2nd and the tropics are quite. Why am I not surprised? However 80-years ago today it was anything but quite as the Great Labor Day Hurricane with winds over 200-MPH in gusts slammed into the middle Florida Keys with a 18-foot storm surge killing close to 500 people.
Quoting 424. HurriHistory:



Well it's September 2nd and the tropics are quite. Why am I not surprised? However 80-years ago today it was anything but quite as the Great Labor Day Hurricane with winds over 200-MPH in gusts slammed into the middle Florida Keys with a 18-foot storm surge killing close to 500 people.


Isnt that the hurricane that people were on was it trains trying to get back to the mainland?
Quoting 413. Xulonn:

Perhaps we should turn it into a Tazmanian Devil blog!





LOL
Quoting 424. HurriHistory:



Well it's September 2nd and the tropics are quite. Why am I not surprised? However 80-years ago today it was anything but quite as the Great Labor Day Hurricane with winds over 200-MPH in gusts slammed into the middle Florida Keys with a 18-foot storm surge killing close to 500 people.


I wonder what the total population was down there back then? Can't imagine it was very high.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 423. GeoffreyWPB:

Eighty years ago today, the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 made landfall near Long Key, with maximum sustained winds near 185 miles per hour....



Perhaps Gro can give us a first hand account?
Quoting 421. George1938:

If Erika reforms in Atlantic east of Florida. Rubs hands together and laughs wickedly lets get it into New England this hurricane drought up here is longer than I am old mwahahaha >:} last one was 1991 Bob. If like in 1954 or 1869 where there was two strikes in a season you just put that as one single storm in the math we should get hit every ten years.


NOAA puts the odds much lower than every 10 years, but it can't still happen. I wouldn't consider not having one since 1991 a hurricane drought. In fact, that's quite recent foe being well outside the tropics.
431. vis0



GrotharGotRain


The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 knocked one of Henry Flaglers train's off it's tracks while it was trying to pick up the WW-1 vets who were working on the new overseas highway. The storm surge knocked the train over after it arrived however no one was killed in the train itself. It was the 18-foot storm surge and 200-plus MPH that killed close to 500-people (WW-1 vets and locals). Lets take a moment to remember these people on this 80-year anniversary.

Quoting 312. HuracanTaino:

Not everybody here come from the USA, you got to realice that. There are sayings, idioms, common to you that aren't common for the rest of the bloggers. I Heard of '' Dog day of Summer before", but only in novels, essays, and movies.


And even between regions of the country. Keeping it topical (if not tropical) and southern.
I'm sweatin' like a sinner in church" That is the PG version, Means it is godalmighty hot. Like a snowball’s chance in hell. Not a chance, not gonna happen. “Slower than molasses running uphill in the winter” Can't get much slower than that. “Hotter than a cat on a hot tin roof” Tennessee Williams used this one.

Keeping with our "Dog days of summer theme":
“If you can't run with the big dogs - stay on the porch." A southern version of "put up or shut up".
"I don't have a dog in that fight." I have no reason to get involved"
"That dog don 't hunt." I don't believe you. Just not true

I will leave you with this one - My favorite and very appropriate for the Lowcountry of South Carolina.

"See ya later, Good Lord willing and the creek don't rise."
434. vis0

Quoting 402. Grothar:



Who said "all the men"? 'We" means all the bloggers and kids of all ages. Most of the time, we don't know who is a he or she. After all these years, I thought Baha, was a man, I thought RitaEvac, was a woman, and Charlotte was a woman, and I thought redwagon was little boy who knew a heck of a lot about weather.

And to make you feel better, a few days ago when I mentioned the crossing of the remnants into the Atlantic, I had a few pooh, poohs from a certain blogger (not you).

Reply on my zillu pg3 cmmnt#105
435. vis0

Quoting 408. redwagon:



I thought vis0 was a Martian until a couple months ago. He's hominid, as it turns out.
YOU TAKE THAT ....B A   C      K..wait Taz is explaining the word..., he's holding up a banana, scratching his arm pit and burning fossil fuel...okay that a third of who i really am.
Quoting 430. Jedkins01:



NOAA puts the odds much lower than every 10 years, but it can't still happen. I wouldn't consider not having one since 1991 a hurricane drought. In fact, that's quite recent foe being well outside the tropics.


1936 cat one. 1938 cat three. 1944 cat two. 1954 cat three then cat two. 1960 cat two. 1985 cat one. 1991 cat two. I know what you are saying though, we jet out over the gulf stream. I'm just bored XD New England