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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Fred rapidly intensifies; new wunderground storm surge section launched

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:51 PM GMT on September 09, 2009

Hurricane Fred put on an impressive burst of intensification overnight, and is now a major Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. However, Fred is not a threat to any land areas for at least the next week. Satellite imagery of Fred shows the spectacular signature of a classic Cape-Verdes type major hurricane, with a prominent eye, well-developed low-level spiral bands, and high cirrus clouds denoting excellent upper-level outflow on three sides. It is quite unusual to have such a powerful system so far east in the Atlantic, and Fred is only the third major hurricane to exist east of 35W. Fred is also the strongest hurricane so far south and east in our data record. However, this type of system would have been difficult to document before satellite pictures began in the 1960s.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Fred at 10:30am EDT 9/9/09. Fred was a Category 3 (120 mph winds) at this time.

The forecast for Fred
Wind shear through Thursday morning is expected to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be about 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation. Given these conditions, plus such factors as the temperature at 200 mb and the amount of moisture between 700 mb and 500 mb, this morning's run of the SHIPS model computes that the Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) Fred can reach tonight is 140 mph (121 knots), which would make it a Category 4 hurricane. This is the strongest a hurricane can get in this region of the atmosphere. Very few hurricanes ever reach their MPI, and it will be interesting to see how close Fred gets to this mark.

Shear will rise to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, Thursday through Friday, then increase to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, Saturday through Sunday, thanks to a strong trough of low pressure traversing the North Atlantic. This should weaken Fred to a tropical storm five days from now. The trough will also pull Fred to the northwest and then north. Most of the models foresee that this trough will not be strong enough to fully recurve Fred to the northeast and out to sea. However, another strong trough of low pressure is forecast to traverse the central Atlantic about eight days from now, and this trough should be strong enough to recurve the storm northeastward out to sea. The odds of Fred making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low at this time.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A weak front is expected to move off the Texas coast Friday and linger along the coast for several days. Beginning on Friday, we will need to watch the Western Gulf of Mexico for possible development of a tropical cyclone along this front. Any storm that develops would likely move northeast or north-northeast and impact Louisiana and northern Texas coast. The models are less enthusiastic this morning about developing such a storm than they were in previous runs, and there will be some high wind shear to the west for a potential tropical system to contend with.

New wunderground storm surge section launched
The Weather Underground is pleased to announce the release of the Internet's most comprehensive hurricane storm surge web pages. The new storm surge section provides more than 500 detailed, zoomed-in storm surge maps from the official storm surge model used by the National Hurricane Center--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. I've created SLOSH model worst-case flood maps for Category 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes for the entire U.S. Atlantic coast, plus Hawaii, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Bahamas. Zoom-in maps of fifteen important cities such as Miami, New York City, Boston, Tampa, and Corpus Christi are included. To help coastal residents see how past storms have affected their region, the wunderground storm surge pages also include SLOSH model animations of the surge for more than 40 historic storms--from the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 to Hurricane Ike of 2008. You can access the new storm surge web pages.from our Tropical/Hurricane page, on the right side of the page under my blog box. I encourage all coastal residents along the U.S. coast to take the time to familiarize themselves with the storm surge risk where they live.


Figure 2. Sample water depth inundation image (left) and storm tide image (right), created using NOAA's SLOSH model. These Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) plots are for Tampa Bay, Florida, for a mid-strength Category 4 hurricane (sustained winds of 143 mph) hitting at high tide.

How to interpret the storm surge images
There are two sets of images available. The first set, titled "Maximum Water Depth", shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. The second set of images, titled "Maximum Storm Tide", shows how high above mean sea level the sum of the storm surge plus the tide reaches. Over the ocean, the storm tide and water depth images will show the same values. The storm tide images contain no information about how deep the water will be inland, and are generally less useful than the water depth images. All of these Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) images were generated for high tide, and thus show worst-case inundation scenarios for mid-strength hurricanes of each Saffir-Simpson Category (Category 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5). Category 5 hurricanes have never occurred in the Mid-Atlantic or New England regions, so there are no Category 5 images shown there. No single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in the SLOSH storm surge images along the entire coast. A sample set of storm surge images for a Category 4 hurricane hitting Tampa Bay is shown in Figure 2. Black lines mark the coastline, and also delineate the grid the SLOSH model used. There may be storm surge present outside the boundaries of the grid, so pay attention to where the grid boundaries are. Also, if you see a high surge modeled for a narrow waterway that goes right up to the edge of the grid boundary, don't believe it. The model puts an artificial barrier at the grid boundary, and the surge is piling up against this non-existent barrier. Empty brownish grid cells with no coloration show where no inundation is computed to occur. St. Petersburg becomes two islands in a worst-case scenario Category 4 hurricane, as shown by the brown areas surrounded by colored areas of storm tide (this did occur during the Great Gale of 1848, a Category 4 hurricane that hit the city). The tide level is marked at the bottom of the color legend, and is 1 foot in this example. The left "maximum water depth" image shows how high above each grid cell the storm tide reaches. The storm tide--the combination of the storm surge plus the 1 foot high tide--reaches as much as 27 feet above mean sea level (pink colors) near downtown Tampa (right-hand "maximum storm tide" image). The amount of inundation inland is controlled by the elevation of the land. Some of the inland regions near downtown Tampa being inundated by the 27-foot storm tide are at an elevation of 19 feet, so as much as 8 feet of inundation will occur at those locations (dark blue colors in the left-hand "maximum water depth" image). Interstate highways are the thick grey-green lines, and smaller highways are shown as dark green and light green lines. If a road is inundated by storm surge, it will not appear. County boundaries are shown in red.

Twenty years ago on this date
On September 9, 1989, satellite imagery detected a strong tropical wave with plenty of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity moving off the coast of Africa, just south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The satellite analyst at the National Hurricane Center duly noted the tropical wave, the 35th such wave to move off Africa that year, in his tropical weather discussion. No one could suspect that the routine-looking tropical wave would eventually grow to become Hurricane Hugo--the costliest Atlantic hurricane of all time.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting iceman55:



goes to la hmmm
Quoting iceman55:
homelesswanderer olny 20% low




Is that the green blob?
1506. Gumluvr
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Hey hope you're still here. I didn't get the email. :( I've been looking at the models. They all seem to show something coming through here. Except the Nogaps, well havent looked at 0z yet. But they weren't. But nothing was showig anything strong.


Well, shoot. I was just talking about our weather. Yeah, doesn't look too bad. Hoping you don't get too much rain, since your area can flood easily. I'm glad Greg is mentioning the possibility. At least people will know either way. He is really trying to stay on top of things this year. I have to give him credit for that.
Just looked at all the models....none of the models that i looked at showed anything developing in the GOM. There was a hint of something but, nothing held together.
1509. Gumluvr
Quoting tornadodude:


well, on behalf of all of us, it is our pleasure to help. we all come here to learn more, great place :)


Thanks, again. :)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just looked at all the models....none of the models that i looked at showed anything developing in the GOM. There was a hint of something but, nothing held together.



oh ok, thanks Tampa, so, Cowboys vs. Bucs sunday.... hmmm ;)
Quoting Gumluvr:


Thanks, again. :)


no problem! :D
Quoting iceman55:
btwntx08 / da low

yep
Quoting Gumluvr:


Well, shoot. I was just talking about our weather. Yeah, doesn't look too bad. Hoping you don't get too much rain, since your area can flood easily. I'm glad Greg is mentioning the possibility. At least people will know either way. He is really trying to stay on top of things this year. I have to give him credit for that.


Yeah. I agree. Its good to know one way or the other instead of "Panic when I tell you to Panic!" Geesh. Definitely better this year. Lol
wow i just went outside and theres a lightning show going on to my sw and my dog is scared lol
alright, time to call it a night. goodnight all, see you tomorrow! :)
1521. Gumluvr
Quoting tornadodude:
alright, time to call it a night. goodnight all, see you tomorrow! :)


Have a good night.
Quoting iceman55:
btwntx08 lolol .dog woof ruff

lol btw is ecmwf bout to come out iceman
Quoting btwntx08:
wow i just went outside and theres a lightning show going on to my sw and my dog is scared lol


Lol. My dog's been a mental case since she went through Humberto. She freaks out if a drop of rain hits the house. She's a baaaaddd dog. Lol
Well, at least New Orleans said something about our area. Our NWS hasn't updated since 3pm.


BY SATURDAY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND
SHOULD MOVE INLAND SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. AS
THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE AREA...STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL HELP INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL HIGHS DUE TO LIMITED
INSULATION.

Quoting iceman55:
homelesswanderer what kind dog


A Snorky. Half Schnauzer half Yorkie. Lol she looks like a lil old man with her salt and pepper coloring.
Quoting iceman55:
wow 3 notupdate


Just for aviation. And to change pops for tonight. No discussion tho.
Quoting tornadodude:



oh ok, thanks Tampa, so, Cowboys vs. Bucs sunday.... hmmm ;)


Ya the BUCS should blow them out....you think?......LMAO...gonna be a rough year in Tampa im afraid.....but, you never can tell!
Quoting iceman55:
ecmwf is here

what it show iceman

Marine Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AGXX40 KNHC 100622
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
222 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
EASTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS ENHANCED BY TROUGHING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
MEXICO. CONSEQUENTLY...SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 2-4 FT...HIGHEST OVER
THE W PORTION WHERE THE FETCH IS MAXIMIZED. A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND N GULF IS RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW SEAS...10 KT OR LESS WITH 1-2 FT SEAS...OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE W GULF FRI. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE N GULF COAST WITH LOW PRES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH FRI NIGHT. GFS DEVELOPS THIS LOW
NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WHILE THE ECMWF'S LOW PLACEMENT IS ABOUT
180 NM TO THE EAST
. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND IN TEXT AND
GRAPHICS. BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT E OF THE
LOW BY FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW AND FRONT MOVING N OF THE AREA BY
SAT NIGHT. I PLAN ON KEEPING FORECAST OF SE TO S 10-15 KT WINDS
S OF THE FRONT AND E 10-15 KT N OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WINDS
COULD BE STRONGER IF LOW PRES BECOMES BETTER DEFINED...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE NAM.

Hmmmm? Looks like either you or me Ice. Lol. ;)
Quoting iceman55:
SEE

can u post the image of ecmwf
Well mine shows a low by BT but not where it goes afterward. Link
Quoting iceman55:

yep saw it u can see a circle with 1010mb but the L doesn't come out lol
also if that ecmwf model is right then i will see alot of rain
Quoting iceman55:
off to bed work in at 800am ..bye all

me too i'm out nite iceman and homelesswanderer
Quoting iceman55:
off to bed work in at 800am ..bye all


Good night Ice. But why is the nam and gfs showing it at 72 hours and the ecmwf on 168 hrs???
Quoting btwntx08:

me too i'm out nite iceman and homelesswanderer


Night BT .:)
Well heck the NAM is at 60hrs. I am confused. Lol.
1553. Gumluvr
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Well heck the NAM is at 60hrs. I am confused. Lol.


The forecast discussion says several weak vorts. I think it might be showing different ones.
1554. Gumluvr
Steph, the Houston forecast discussion talks about some unsettled weather sometime into next week. It is under the marine section. Maybe, this is what the ECMWF is picking up on.
As I said earlier, regardless of whether or not tropical or subtropical cyclogenesis occurs, Texas and Louisiana are in for some potential flash flooding.
1556. Gumluvr
Well, time to hit the hay. We will see what the models do tomorrow.
1557. Gumluvr
Quoting KoritheMan:
As I said earlier, regardless of whether or not tropical or subtropical cyclogenesis occurs, Texas and Louisiana are in for some potential flash flooding.


I believe your right. :(
Quoting Gumluvr:


I believe your right. :(


Ok. Thanks. I didn't know why their were so many. Sorry about the WUMAIL. I don't know what happened. :(
Me and my bad timing. Thought everyone was gone. Oh well. I'll try to WUMAIL you Betty. See if you get it. Goodnight all.
Quoting KoritheMan:
As I said earlier, regardless of whether or not tropical or subtropical cyclogenesis occurs, Texas and Louisiana are in for some potential flash flooding.


Yes you're already correct about Texas. Beaumont got 3 inches all at once and had street flooding. This weekend is going to be a mess. I hope everyone stays safe.
JB was on O'reilly last night.
It was interesting. anyway...This is his blog last eve.


WEDNESDAY 11:30 PM
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER

Thunderstorms are going off near the center of the hybrid howler and the new RGEM is still nasty looking as it brings to to Delaware bay tomorrow night.

My appearance on OReilly tonight has me flooded with email, most of it good, but boy, there are some nasty nasty people out there. I really am astounded at the intolerance of some people that support the AGW side of the issue. I cant imagine writing something like that to someone.

They must not listen. Any of you catch the fact I said Greenpeace has done good things, and that people shouldnt believe me but go look themselves. I have long suspected that this is much more about things beyond science, but goes right into the heart of a movement that is much more than that. Such reactions only go to confirm suspicions.

thanks for reading , ciao for now ****
Hong Kong Observatory
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The Strong Wind Signal No. 3 is in force.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM MUJIGAE (T0913)
18:00 PM JST September 10 2009
=========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Mujigae (998 hPa) located at 19.2N 113.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 10 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in north quadrant
90 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.6N 110.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 19.8N 108.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 20.5N 106.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
morning
good to hear texas is finally getting wet
From the NWS Lake Charles:

Forecast becomes quite complicated beginning tomorrow into the
weekend as models all have varying solutions on the evolution of
a surface low in the western Gulf...although they do appear to be
getting in somewhat better agreement on timing and placement. GFS
and European model (ecmwf) form an area of low pressure along the coastal trough
on Friday...taking it northward as a non-tropical or hybrid system
across southeast Texas from Saturday into Sunday. The NAM seems
overly aggressive in depicting a tropical storm forming rapidly on
Friday and then moving inland over southeast Texas late Saturday.

Good Morning All! Looks like we are going to be in for a very wet weekend here in South Louisiana. I haven't had time to look at the models, just wondering what the models were doing with the low in the GOM?? TIA
1570. RJT185
Morning!
Good Morning...

Quoting leftovers:
good to hear texas is finally getting wet


Good morning.... we parched central Texans are still waiting to get wet :(
Looks like 06 GFS takes whats left of Fred all the way to the US.
Quoting JupiterFL:
Looks like 06 GFS takes whats left of Fred all the way to the US.


Morning All.

The models for Fred look like a game of "Where's Waldo".
Hopefully they can hash out some intensity issues today.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Morning All.

The models for Fred look like a game of "Where's Waldo".


I guess they went with Angel hair on the Spaghetti models this time.
of the posted models i dont see one model putting fred near the us closest one is about 2000 miles
Quoting JupiterFL:


I guess they went with Angel hair on the Spaghetti models this time.


LOL, shows they don't have a clue intensity wise. I am baffled at the GFDL's poor performance this year. HWRF doesn't surprise me.
1580. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 705 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Peak day of the hurricane season.....

Day 102....
81 days left....


SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF WILL DRIFT W AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE MIDDLE GULF FRI. BROAD LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF FRI. A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE N WATERS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THE LOW AND
FRONT WILL MOVE N OF AREA SUN.
Hi all...

not sure what the models are saying this morning, but here is what our locals are saying....

Channel 12 - Golden Triangle Forecast

Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Sunday

The heavy rainfall threat continues today through Sunday thanks to very deep moisture over Southeast Texas which stays in place through the weekend. Rainfall totals between today and Sunday could top 6 inches and storms could put down as much as 2 inches per hour so brief street flooding will be a possibility. Models continue to point towards low pressure developing Saturday and moving towards our area bringing even heavier rainfall. Drier weather is expected Monday.

Channel 6

Heavy Rains Likely....



Low pressure will likely develop over the Gulf to our south and southwest by Friday. This low will likely move slowly to the north with plenty of tropical moisture working northward into our area. There will be the potential for rainfall totals in excess of 5 inches by Saturday afternoon. The low will also be closely watched for any tropical development. With plenty of clouds, temperatures will be cooler than normal for afternoon highs.



1582. WxLogic
Good Morning...
1583. jpsb
Quoting redwagon:


Good morning.... we parched central Texans are still waiting to get wet :(


How are the crops doing up there? The drought was terrible here (San Leon) 4 months with less than an inch! But in the last few weeks finally some good rains.

I think I wait a little longer before I but the baby plants into my winter garden. Don't want then to drown.
Good Morning.
Looking at the WV loops this morning and hoping to see some sign of this dry letting up.
No chance of that.
This has been a very peculiar rainy season here so far at 11n 61w.
It feels like May, but with no breeze!
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Hi all...

not sure what the models are saying this morning, but here is what our locals are saying....

Channel 12 - Golden Triangle Forecast

Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Sunday

The heavy rainfall threat continues today through Sunday thanks to very deep moisture over Southeast Texas which stays in place through the weekend. Rainfall totals between today and Sunday could top 6 inches and storms could put down as much as 2 inches per hour so brief street flooding will be a possibility. Models continue to point towards low pressure developing Saturday and moving towards our area bringing even heavier rainfall. Drier weather is expected Monday.

Channel 6

Heavy Rains Likely....



Low pressure will likely develop over the Gulf to our south and southwest by Friday. This low will likely move slowly to the north with plenty of tropical moisture working northward into our area. There will be the potential for rainfall totals in excess of 5 inches by Saturday afternoon. The low will also be closely watched for any tropical development. With plenty of clouds, temperatures will be cooler than normal for afternoon highs.





question.. is channel 6 the one with Neil Frank?
trinidad tobago texas all short of water what do they have in common? they begin with t hope you all get some soon
Quoting indianrivguy:


question.. is channel 6 the one with Neil Frank?


Greg Bostwick
1588. P451
Three areas of interest close to home: I'm being affected by the first - it's getting quite breezy. Will take pics of the angry Atlantic and post them later on.





1589. Grothar


Looks like Fred wants to take a bite at the wind shear. Anyone notice his little mouth open at the bottom of the center convection?
1590. Grothar
Quoting P451:
Three areas of interest close to home: I'm being affected by the first - it's getting quite breezy. Will take pics of the angry Atlantic and post them later on.







Hey P451! How old are those pictures you just posted. Looks like the Atlantic is getting angry. Is that system moving towards the NE coastline?
Thanks Texas !
Low level swirl won't go away. TPC/TFAB has forecasted it to dissipate for days now.
21.7N 65W


Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


LOL, shows they don't have a clue intensity wise. I am baffled at the GFDL's poor performance this year. HWRF doesn't surprise me.


I think it shows us that in an environment with such strong troughs, the models have a very hard time. Timing is everything and that seems to be the hard for the computers to predict.
1594. P451
Quoting Grothar:


Hey P451! How old are those pictures you just posted. Looks like the Atlantic is getting angry. Is that system moving towards the NE coastline?


They were 45-60 minutes old at the time. Each about a 10 hour loop.

Yeah the gale is retrograding towards the coast.
Quoting indianrivguy:


question.. is channel 6 the one with Neil Frank?


Dr. Neil Frank was with channel 11 here in Houston but he retired. He will only come around if there is a Hurricane close.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Low level swirl won't go away. TPC/TFAB has forecasted it to dissipate for days now.
21.7N 65W




That same swirl about 4 days ago had a yellow circle around it from NHC
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Low level swirl won't go away. TPC/TFAB has forecasted it to dissipate for days now.
21.7N 65W




Spawn of Karen cometh!

That is definitely a rock band that needs to be made.
1598. Grothar
Quoting indianrivguy:


question.. is channel 6 the one with Neil Frank?


Wow, Neil Frank. When he left Miami at the NHC he was missed by a lot of people here. He was and is a very respected meteorologist. I do not think many people outside of Texas are familiar with his contributions. He was quite a personality here in his day. Glad to hear his name.
1599. Grothar
Quoting JupiterFL:


I think it shows us that in an environment with such strong troughs, the models have a very hard time. Timing is everything and that seems to be the hard for the computers to predict.


Hey JupiterFL, I agree, but don't be too hard on the models. If they all went down at the same time, what would we do?? I guess they try to keep up as best they can.
Quoting Grothar:


Wow, Neil Frank. When he left Miami at the NHC he was missed by a lot of people here. He was and is a very respected meteorologist. I do not think many people outside of Texas are familiar with his contributions. He was quite a personality here in his day. Glad to hear his name.


He was my hero growing up in Dade County, but after his performance during Ike, I lost respect for him. The local officials listened to him instead of the NHC and I believe it cost folks their lives. He steadfastly argued that the NHC was over rating Ike.. had Ike come in twenty miles south hundreds more would have died on Galveston Island. Had Frank not flexed his muscle, maybe some of the folks on the Bolivar peninsula would have evacuated in time. JMHO
that naked swirl is a mid level or low level?
Quoting indianrivguy:


He was my hero growing up in Dade County, but after his performance during Ike, I lost respect for him. The local officials listened to him instead of the NHC and I believe it cost folks their lives. He steadfastly argued that the NHC was over rating Ike.. had Ike come in twenty miles south hundreds more would have died on Galveston Island. Had Frank not flexed his muscle, maybe some of the folks on the Bolivar peninsula would have evacuated in time. JMHO


I have to agree with you on that. We used to listen to him but he started going downhill with his reports and what I would call miss-information that I quit watching him.
Quoting leftovers:
that naked swirl is a mid level or low level?


Surface
1604. Grothar
Quoting indianrivguy:


He was my hero growing up in Dade County, but after his performance during Ike, I lost respect for him. The local officials listened to him instead of the NHC and I believe it cost folks their lives. He steadfastly argued that the NHC was over rating Ike.. had Ike come in twenty miles south hundreds more would have died on Galveston Island. Had Frank not flexed his muscle, maybe some of the folks on the Bolivar peninsula would have evacuated in time. JMHO


Didn't know that about Ike. Something very similar happened in Great Britain in 1987 when they were hit with one of the most destructive storms ever hit, killing hundreds. The BBC weatherman, I believe his name was Michael Fish, told everyone "not to worry". He lived with the criticism the rest of his life. It was quite the story in Europe at the time. Their use of the term "Fish Storm" has a different connotation as our term. It makes for some interesting reading.
I actually believe the Models are performing very well.

They NHC track is basically following the BAMM forecast....






OFCL BAMM CMC NGPS


Mornin' Tim!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Surface
probally light drizzle within the circulation what i find unusual about it was never named a td or anything in the past. usually see these after a system has been sheared
Quoting Grothar:


Hey JupiterFL, I agree, but don't be too hard on the models. If they all went down at the same time, what would we do?? I guess they try to keep up as best they can.


That would be an interesting predickament.
1610. JLPR
nice circulation
Quoting leftovers:
probally light drizzle within the circulation what i find unusual about it was never named a td or anything in the past. usually see these after a system has been sheared


Its been fighting shear for days now, that is why TAFB kept forecasting it to dissipate. Its been tracked in the Marine Weather discussion.
Quoting JLPR:
nice circulation


probly OFF (One For the Fishes)
Good morning :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Quoting indianrivguy:


He was my hero growing up in Dade County, but after his performance during Ike, I lost respect for him. The local officials listened to him instead of the NHC and I believe it cost folks their lives. He steadfastly argued that the NHC was over rating Ike.. had Ike come in twenty miles south hundreds more would have died on Galveston Island. Had Frank not flexed his muscle, maybe some of the folks on the Bolivar peninsula would have evacuated in time. JMHO

Good Morning! Yeah, good ol' Neil Frank!! Remember him as a kid growing up, former director of the NHC!! I am suprised with the expertise under his belt that he did not DEMAND everything <20' above sea level to evacuate! It is SAD, a CRYING shame that ANYONE lost their life to that storm!! There was adequate warning!!
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' Tim!


Hi my friend......you gotta love this.....

New jobless claims fall more than expected to 550K

Some just don't get it.....are they not underplaying what a loss of 550,000 job in one weak means....OMG....
Quoting JLPR:
nice circulation
what level? if it is surface that looks like a td
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Its been fighting shear for days now, that is why TAFB kept forecasting it to dissipate. Its been tracked in the Marine Weather discussion.
only way they can come west this yr
long term recession our kids need jobs! what if you were in charge of a international corp? would you start a company in a country were you pay high wages and have to pay for health care for your workers. there are advantages to have a socialized medicine system.
Quoting leftovers:
what level? if it is surface that looks like a td


quickscat = low level, thats the thing the nhc has called subtropical
Quoting leftovers:
long term recession our kids need jobs


you got that right....not turning the corner anytime soon it appears.. what factories are still left in the US .....no orders are coming in expect orders the Gov. is doing...
Quoting leftovers:
long term recession our kids need jobs


its been such along time for me without one that i really stopped caring for a while... cashing on state unemployment insurance, which they cut off for me saying i was attending college (wtf)
Its been a good thing we have have a null season so far in this season.....Don't know what kind of economic woes we would have if a Major would hit a major city....
Quoting serialteg:


its been such along time for me without one that i really stopped caring for a while... cashing on state unemployment insurance, which they cut off for me saying i was attending college (wtf)


So a college student is not allowed to work.....WOW..sorry to hear that!
Quoting TampaSpin:
Its been a good thing we have have a null season so far in this season.....Don't know what kind of economic woes we would have if a Major would hit a major city....


i got a friend who would be rejoicing if he had major disasters, has a side job with FEMA makes a lot of money with canes
Quoting serialteg:


I'm thinking after Fred bends to the west, and after he gets to TD status in 5 days, i'm thinking he will redevelop a bit because from what i'm looking at, the wind shear is pretty low, around 5-10 knots. Anyone else think this?
In regards to Ike:

I used to work with Frank (Billingsly). When he started getting nervous about Ike I knew it was bad. (I knew anyway from following here, but I was surprised to see a met nervous.)

A lot of people died because of the surge. No one realized how much ahead of the storm the surge would cut off the evacuations routes. Many people planned on leaving that Friday morning (early)! But by 6am they were trapped in their homes. Ike didn't "hit" until about 2 am Saturday morning. When I woke up at 7 on friday, and saw waves crashing over the seawall I panicked... and I'm 20 miles north of Galveston (11 miles west of the bay)... elevation 20.
Quoting TampaSpin:


So a college student is not allowed to work.....WOW..sorry to hear that!


not that, the government in puerto rico has an insurance that you get taxed for in most jobs its unemployment insurance. you get it for six months, i currently get 170$ biweekly, in comparison to a friend of mine who got it from new jersey's unemployment insurance, she got $300+ weekly, you can note the difference... you'd never get that amount from PR state unemployment insurance

its a good thing im living with grandma, if not id be really ... i guess living in a project
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hi my friend......you gotta love this.....

New jobless claims fall more than expected to 550K

Some just don't get it.....are they not underplaying what a loss of 550,000 job in one weak means....OMG....


Amen...it bothers me to no end when the spin masters try to say the economy is on the way back because fewer people are losing their jobs(it has to slow sometime, or none of us would be working). No logic at all, they think we are idiots.
Quoting serialteg:


i got a friend who would be rejoicing if he had major disasters, has a side job with FEMA makes a lot of money with canes


Unforunately.....the woes of others are often prospered by others.....did i spell that right....lol
1630. Grothar
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hi my friend......you gotta love this.....

New jobless claims fall more than expected to 550K

Some just don't get it.....are they not underplaying what a loss of 550,000 job in one weak means....OMG....


Don't want to get off-topic, but this happens every year at the end of the summer. In the northern states, resorts close, hotels close, transportation areas decline, etc. The figures are much lower than expected. There are also continuing claims and people moving to different states. Students are leaving jobs and going back to school. There are many factors involved. Even in the best of times, these figures vary greatly, but no one pays attention as they do now. Now back to the weather.
Good Morning....Anybody having problems running the NOAA Sat Loops in motion this morning?.......Or is it my Java player?...Thanks.
Morning Gang...
LOTS of moisture building off of TX....how is the shear? Still holding I hope?
1633. surfmom
P451 -- thanks for those pics...was curious to see what was happening in my neighborhood...gulf is at 90 degrees by me SRQ

Lots of energy flowing into the Hottub de Mexico
Quoting surfmom:
P451 -- thanks for those pics...was curious to see what was happening in my neighborhood...gulf is at 90 degrees by me SRQ

Lots of energy flowing into the Hottub de Mexico


Hi SurfMom.....you got that right..i was off shore fishing a few days ago and the surface temp in the boat at 3pm showed 94deg where we was fishing about 50miles off shore....worse than a hottub......heck my gucuzzi i keep at 105....lol
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning....Anybody having problems running the NOAA Sat Loops in motion this morning?.......Or is it my Java player?...Thanks.


Since they retooled the java loops dont work for me either, but the flash option works just fine.
Quoting southernstorm:


Amen...it bothers me to no end when the spin masters try to say the economy is on the way back because fewer people are losing their jobs(it has to slow sometime, or none of us would be working). No logic at all, they think we are idiots.

So you are saying that if less people are losing their jobs we should say that is bad? Where is your "logic"
Good morning gang!

Just listened to one of the local mets, Rob Robbins, a highly respected met, and he says this low in the gulf has started to deepen and has the propensity to go further with conditions slowly improving.
Quoting southernstorm:


Since they retooled the java loops dont work for me either, but the flash option works just fine.


Thanks...I can't get the flash to work either right now...
Quoting Grothar:


Don't want to get off-topic, but this happens every year at the end of the summer. In the northern states, resorts close, hotels close, transportation areas decline, etc. The figures are much lower than expected. There are also continuing claims and people moving to different states. Students are leaving jobs and going back to school. There are many factors involved. Even in the best of times, these figures vary greatly, but no one pays attention as they do now. Now back to the weather.


Eleven years with ML. (now BOA) Sort of like storms, It only needs to be one job to be a life changing event, if it is your job. Hope I find another soon!
1640. NEwxguy
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hi my friend......you gotta love this.....

New jobless claims fall more than expected to 550K

Some just don't get it.....are they not underplaying what a loss of 550,000 job in one weak means....OMG....


Yeah,thats like the insurance companies telling us they have good news,we are only raising your rates 10%,and not 15% like we thought.
Noaa sat site is down since early morning today 10th sept 2009
NFL starts today.........yeppie!
1643. surfmom
SWFL Surf Report/Gulfster -( no arrows pls.) this is from a surf perspective -- we're starving for waves on the gulf coast... we know and don't wish for 'canes... just getting a bit batty --SEVERE AND PAINFUL WITHDRAWAL SYMPTOMS - how many times can you drive to the other coast?
-----------
Summer doldrums sticking around for the Westside as we enter into the middle of September with out any excitement. Future forecast looking grim surf wise. Today, with the wind East @ 15, should give the kiters some water time as the rest of us sit on the side lines and wait for swell. Gulf Temp 89
Quoting stoormfury:
Noaa sat site is down since early morning today 10th sept 2009


Guess I'll have to do it the old way for now; step outside and look at the sky and trees for any sign of winds and clouds...
Quoting NEwxguy:


Yeah,thats like the insurance companies telling us they have good news,we are only raising your rates 10%,and not 15% like we thought.


Hey my friend...i just realized i mispelled WEEK and put WEAK.....i guess it was ok tho.......ROFLMAO
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
In regards to Ike:

I used to work with Frank (Billingsly). When he started getting nervous about Ike I knew it was bad. (I knew anyway from following here, but I was surprised to see a met nervous.)

A lot of people died because of the surge. No one realized how much ahead of the storm the surge would cut off the evacuations routes. Many people planned on leaving that Friday morning (early)! But by 6am they were trapped in their homes. Ike didn't "hit" until about 2 am Saturday morning. When I woke up at 7 on friday, and saw waves crashing over the seawall I panicked... and I'm 20 miles north of Galveston (11 miles west of the bay)... elevation 20.


I find it interesting/sad that ALL the clues were there that the surge would arrive early. There was storm surge affecting the gulf from Tampa all the around unto Texas well before arrival. The affected area was immense and many here had expressed concern of it's affects at landfall.

Notice that afterwards there was a clamoring for a "new" rating system beyond the cat whatever we are currently using. Our own Doc Masters was a vocal proponent of this reconsideration.

I listened in abject horror to the phone calls of those from Bolivar that woke up expecting to drive to safety only to find themselves trapped with no chance of rescue before the storm arrived. I have a 101mb file on that hurricane with lots of before and afters.. scary lucky that more didn't perish.
Good morning StormW. How are you today?
1650. ph34683
Quoting TampaSpin:


what factories are still left in the US .....no orders are coming in expect orders the Gov. is doing...

We're still ordering from US factories! Not that we make a big difference...but it makes me feel good every time I place an order with one of our US vendors.
Good Morning Senior Chief
Does anyone want to get in a Fantasy Football League....i have it set up already.....let me know ASAP so i can get you the password!
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning....Anybody having problems running the NOAA Sat Loops in motion this morning?.......Or is it my Java player?...Thanks.
It's not working I had the same problem.
mornin' Orca, Senior Chief, Mister Johnny!
Quoting scott1968:
It's not working I had the same problem.

Ditto
Goooood Mornin' Storm!
1657. Grothar
Anyone have SST maps, if Fred moves back towards the west more than expected. It would seem he would be moving back to warmer waters, as now being indicated even by the NHC.
looking at the gfs 06Z and it shows whats left of fred make it to florida. I know its far away but was just interesting how the gfs has the high building in.
Alternative site for satellite images.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/anim16ir.html

This site is working nicely from Goes 12. Lots of energy pulling into the Gulf from Texas this morning.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Alternative site for satellite images.


Same one I noted here.....Thanks for the Site.
new blog.
1665. Grothar
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Guess I'll have to do it the old way for now; step outside and look at the sky and trees for any sign of winds and clouds...


Is that why the images on the NOAA look the same as last night? They usually give a message that they are down. OH NO OH NO!!!
Indianrivguy It's sad, but people heard Cat 2 and didn't head the warnings. If they had heard Cat 4 storm surge (as an official rating) I believe they would have run for safety DAYS earlier.

And with this weekend's anniversary of Ike a lot of us are feeling a bit anxious. It's sad.
Quoting indianrivguy:


I find it interesting/sad that ALL the clues were there that the surge would arrive early. There was storm surge affecting the gulf from Tampa all the around unto Texas well before arrival. The affected area was immense and many here had expressed concern of it's affects at landfall.

Notice that afterwards there was a clamoring for a "new" rating system beyond the cat whatever we are currently using. Our own Doc Masters was a vocal proponent of this reconsideration.

I listened in abject horror to the phone calls of those from Bolivar that woke up expecting to drive to safety only to find themselves trapped with no chance of rescue before the storm arrived. I have a 101mb file on that hurricane with lots of before and afters.. scary lucky that more didn't perish.



People are stupid. The Weather Channel and all the media outlets were telling everyone the surge for Ike was going to be much worse than a typical category 2 hurricane, even a day or two ahead of time. I remember the meteorologists interviewing idiots who were sitting at a local bar getting drunk, having a hurricane party.


Then of course afterwards, just like in Katrina, everyone is like, "Why didn't anyone tell us it was going to be this bad?"

Well idiots, they DID tell you it was that bad.

"Why are you standing around? Get your ass out of here."- Ray Nagin, 2005 before Katrina.


====

I think governments need to come up with a new "education" system for the public, who seems not to comprehend that 7ft of water is over their heads, 15-20ft is over the ridge of the roof of their house.

So what they need to do, is put some markers in towns like galveston and New Orleans, Tampa Bay, etc, on all the light poles.

"This is what 7ft of water level rise is. If you are here, you die."

"This is what 15ft of water level rise is. If you are here, we probably won't find your corpse...or your house..."

Maybe if they put this every few street corners in vulnerable locations, maybe people would finally get the picture and get out ahead of time.
1668. hydrus
Quoting indianrivguy:


He was my hero growing up in Dade County, but after his performance during Ike, I lost respect for him. The local officials listened to him instead of the NHC and I believe it cost folks their lives. He steadfastly argued that the NHC was over rating Ike.. had Ike come in twenty miles south hundreds more would have died on Galveston Island. Had Frank not flexed his muscle, maybe some of the folks on the Bolivar peninsula would have evacuated in time. JMHO
I would say Mr. Frank has done a lot more good than bad, and there were many officials telling people to leave. It is not all of Neil Frank,s responsibility when to fire the starting gun for the evacuations to begin. I understand what IndianRiverGuy is saying(Believe Me).


AND HERE WE GO!
I guess everyone is SLEEPING.....