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Fred is dead; the Atlantic is quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:16 PM GMT on September 13, 2009

Hurricane Fred is dead, thanks to strong wind shear that finished tearing the storm apart yesterday. While the remains of Fred have generated a burst of heavy thunderstorms this morning, prohibitively high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots today through Monday will prevent regeneration, and should be able to completely disrupt the remnant circulation of Fred.

A tropical wave about 200 miles southeast of the Cape Verdes Islands, just off the coast of Africa, remains disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, and one spot of 45 mph winds in the small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the south side of the circulation. The wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, and may show some slow development beginning Monday, when the shear should drop below 20 knots. NHC is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.

A low pressure system that was over the Texas Gulf of Mexico coast has moved inland, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical cyclone. Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from Florida to the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina. However, wind shear will be relatively high in this region, and anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature.


Figure 1. The remains of Tropical Storm Fred (left) appear as a swirl of low-level clouds with a clump of heavy thunderstorm activity on the north side. A new tropical disturbance near the coast of Africa is disorganized, due to 20 knots of wind shear.

Twenty years ago on this date
On September 13, 1989, Tropical Storm Hugo continued its westward march at 20 mph towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. Shortly after midnight on the 13th, satellite analysts at the National Hurricane Center noted a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of thick cirrus clouds was forming over the center. The CDO was evidence that Hugo was beginning to build an eyewall. The thunderstorms in the eyewall were now powerful enough to lift large amounts of moisture 45,000 feet high, where the stable air of the stratosphere lay. Unable to penetrate into the stratosphere, the air lifted by Hugo's thunderstorms was forced to spread outward into a thick, circular layer of cirrus clouds--the CDO--that hid the storm's core. The mystery of what was happening beneath the Central Dense Overcast became apparent a few hours later, when a murky eye appeared. At 8 am EDT on the 13th, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Hugo to hurricane status.

At NOAA's Office of Aircraft Operations--the hurricane hunting division of NOAA--we busily prepared for tomorrow's deployment to Barbados of both of our P-3 Orion hurricane hunting aircraft. There were dropsondes and Air-Expendable Bathythermographs to load, computer checks to make, and calibration data to load. We chatted excitedly about the new hurricane that looked like an excellent case study for the hurricane scientists. But there was also an undercurrent of uneasiness to our cheerful preparations. We knew that a Cape Verdes-type hurricane like Hugo that was still 2 - 3 days from the Lesser Antilles would probably kill a lot of people--perhaps even close to home, here in Florida.

In a letter I wrote that night to my soon-to-be-fiancee, Diane, in Michigan, I said: "Well, that dark enveloping death feeling is back again, much stronger than before. I know Hugo the hurricane will kill people and I feel it coming close to here".


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 13, 1989. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

Jeff Masters


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

can anyone tell me where in the gom the low is situated right now? is it near the sw side of florida above the keys? or somewhere else?
thanks
Quoting zebralove:
can anyone tell me where in the gom the low is situated right now? is it near the sw side of florida above the keys? or somewhere else?
thanks


There is no GoM low -- if you are referring to that trough, it moved inland across southeast Texas last night.
thanks korie so what is making all the convection ofshore sw florida? Is it just the gom gets lots of convection everynight? It seems like there has been a constant slight movement east with the convection for the last few days.
guess its just more directly west of florida.
The convection is being caused by a quasi-stationary frontal boundary across the Gulf. Interaction with a mid-level high pressure ridge centered over western Cuba is also aiding in convective development. However, none of this convection is even remotely organized, and upper-level winds are unfavorable for development.
Pressure readings from Bouys. No lower pressure around the keys.



Pressure tendency in the keys & even more so the spot of lower shear off the SEFL coast are falling while other buoy's pressures are on the rise..

00ZCMC develops the Yucatan blob & puts it in AL in about 72hrs..
Quoting Skyepony:
00ZCMC develops the Yucatan blob & puts it in AL in about 72hrs..
Can we call it crazy? Look at what it does in the Pacific.
CMC is hardly a 'reliable' model.
.
Quoting JLPR:


10N 40W is no good
I hope it is at 20N 45W at 200hrs =]




10N 35W i'm think
1012. JLPR
Fred is developing (once again) some convection on his west side
and the CV low that was circled yellow yesterday developed some convection too
1013. JLPR
Quoting lordhuracan01:




10N 35W i'm think


well that's better xD
1015. SykKid
Yep. Just like I said when Fred dies Hurricane season would be as boring as ever.
It's starting to look like [the tables have turned,] maybe?



Hong Kong Observatory
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The Strong Wind Signal No. 3 is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 41 to 62 kilometres per hour are expected.

At 5 p.m., Severe Tropical Storm Koppu was estimated to be about 210 kilometres south-southeast of Hong Kong (near 20.5 degrees north 114.9 degrees east) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 16 kilometres per hour towards the coast of western Guangdong.

Gale winds are occasionally blowing over offshore waters and high ground. Local winds are expected to strengthen further generally.

Koppu has taken on a more northerly track, and is showing signs of futher intensification. Low lying areas may be affected by flooding brought by the storm surge of Koppu. Residents in the relevant areas are advised to take precautionary measures to reduce demage.

The Observatory will issue the Gale or Storm Signal No. 8 at or before 6 p.m.
Is the blog dead or has my pc got a problem?
Quoting AussieStorm:
Is the blog dead or has my pc got a problem?


Dead lol
1020. aquak9
your pc has a problem (j/k)
Quoting KoritheMan:
CMC is hardly a 'reliable' model.


On the contrary, it has performed the best after the ECMWF this year. The problem with it is that it is too cyclogenically biased.
00Z ECMWF is showing a more vigorous ridge of high pressure establishing over the east coast than previous ones. This would induce a more westerly track if Fred were to regenerate. Consistency is needed to fully conclude that is plausible.

1023. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:
Is the blog dead or has my pc got a problem?


(1)The Atlantic is dead....which...
(2)Makes this blog dead....which...
(3)Makes people sleep more.
Well I hope everyone is getting full night sleeps since the ATL is dead.

I give ex-Fred 25% chance of making a return if his structure holds together till he reaches more favorable enviroment.
watching the small area near windwards not sure but it does not seem to be moving west
Tropical Update for Monday 14 September 2009

Have a great day as downcasters will be out in force today.

:)

Quoting IKE:


(1)The Atlantic is dead....which...
(2)Makes this blog dead....which...
(3)Makes people sleep more.


What Blog? Good moring anyone here! Coffee and KK time
Hi, IKE

Now that the season is over 1/2 done, do you think Fl is going to be ok this year. We seem to have had a long run of great luck here in Saint Augustine since Dora!.
nothing wrong in downcasting i rather be upcasting
1030. IKE
Quoting Autistic2:
Hi, IKE

Now that the season is over 1/2 done, do you think Fl is going to be ok this year. We seem to have had a long run of great luck here in Saint Augustine since Dora!.


Not sure about peninsula Florida. As far as the panhandle, it's getting close to being over.

Found this from the Dallas,TX. extended....

"ON SUNDAY...A POWERFUL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE PLAINS...BRINGING A RETURN TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN
THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN FINALLY BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACRS NORTH TX. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
OF TX...BUT IS PROJECTED TO SEND A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ANYTIME FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS LONG AS
THIS PANS OUT...WOULD SEE TEMPERATURES LIKELY RETURN TO NORMAL OR
ABOVE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHENEVER THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE
AREA...WOULD EXPECT TSTMS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY IT."....


And Amarillo,TX....

"NORTHWEST FLOW
COULD EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY.".....


If that front comes true and pushes through the SE USA, it's getting real close to being over along the northern GOM.

I was six years old when Dora slamed ashore.

We were six miles from the beach in a two story offgrade house built in 1842. We had another house on Riberia st. made around 1845. No Damage beyond shingles.I think we build houses much flimiser now!

No damage other than shingles on the roof. None. Water about 4 feet deep on King st and the bay front. I think Anastisa island went total under the surge.

.
Good morning Storm :)
StormW..... you have mail.
Also, I know you have said Fred will have a hard time staying together but there is a small amount of chance he will and could become more than what he was before.
Also, if Ex-Fred did regenerate will he be still called Fred or be called Grace?
1035. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FRED ARE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM MAY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
But if Fred regenerates it would have to make is past the two troughs to hit the states. The remant is already almost too far north to hit the islands.

The little bit of convection just NE of Trinidad worries me a little bit. But the shear to the north of it should keep it from organizing.
1037. P451
1038. P451
Fred WV:


CV Wave:
1039. IKE
From accuweather....

"Last Update: 14-SEP-2009 06:41am EDT

The remnant low of what once was Hurricane Fred is located near 18 north and 38 west, way out in the central tropical Atlantic. It is on the go now to the west as high pressure continues to build to the north of this feature. This remnant low is still fighting strong upper-level winds from the southwest and is showing up nicely on the satellite loop as convection remains to the north of the center of circulation. Conditions remain unfavorable for re-strengthening the next few days with strong winds aloft in its path. The remnant low should continue to cause flare ups of convection and maintain a low-level center of circulation as it moves across the central Atlantic. Long-range models show this feature east the Bahamas next weekend, so it will be interesting to see what kind of shape it is in at that time.

Aside from the remnants of Fred, the Atlantic basin is remarkably quiet for this time of year.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck and Meteorologist Matt Keefe"


The 00Z ECMWF shows Fred east of the Bahamas as a wave and then losses it.

Shows nothing else in the Atlantic basin through September 24th. I even checked the South America view to get a look at what's coming off Africa.
1040. P451


1041. P451
And a few final other AOIs:

Central Atlantic - and Africa



Mornin all. Not much happening I see.
1043. TomSal
RE: P451 in post 1038. What is displayed in the top picture? Thanks.
1044. P451
1045. P451
1038: Top picture is Fred WV, Bottom picture is the CV Islands wave.

1046. IKE
Quoting TomSal:
RE: P451 in post 1038. What is displayed in the top picture? Thanks.


It's Fred.

Look how it's getting choked in SAL....

hello everyone lot of people on here probably do not remember me, but i was one of the old posters from the 2005 era. i have not posted on here since 2007 lost interest after the originals left and the drama started.a lot of good bloggers left here, just and example of a few that rarely/or no longer post here: lefty, bob(weatherguy03), hurricane 1979, doc in the swamp ,alex, jedkins,mobal,outrocket, rays queen, gamma etc. although we dont blog anymore we still lurk regurally and disscuss it through emails.now you say what is the point of this fools rambling,well i thought maybe if some of you knew what ran off a lot of the old and knowledgable bloggers here are some of the reasons: the constant annoying arguing over downcast rip wishcast who cares just make a opinion and say i am a amateur dont read in to it. jfv what a annoying sob, great to see the young people take interest but act like a adult and you will be treated like one. the people who monopolize and stay on this blog 24hrs 7 days a week! do these people have a life outside a weather blog? the poeple who post the same satellite images over and over. the arguing between bloggers example ike and 456 waisted conversation and childless. and drak, does anybody notice how he only pops up when their is something east of florida ? and hurricane 23 well he only pops in to make a comment on the obvious after it already happened.adrian (hurricane 23 also in 2006 was nailed to the wall for plagarizing and pasting matierial from other blogs. jfv whatever happened to his child and fiancee from last year? must have dissappeared. and for stormtop, i do not know why people put him on ignore for he is actually comical "weather office lmao. now for the good storm w i really appreciate your input and knowledge keep up the info and god bless. ike for your dedication to devoting all your time to this blog; but the rip next 70 days to go are annoying you seem to have to much class for that . and ike to say the northern gulf coast through after a front in mid sept: hilda oct 1964,juan late oct 1985 kate nov 20 1985 opal 1995, lili oct 2002, matthew oct 2004 so storms hit the northern gulf coast in oct and rarely nov.weather 456 really sharp young man, knows his stuff.456 one shortcoming the arguing with ike to good posters just drop the childlike bickering. and thier are others just not as familiar with. well thanks for lettin g this old fool time to ramble have a good day and god bless
Quoting leftovers:
nothing wrong in downcasting i rather be upcasting
You and everyone else.
WE HAVE A PINE HOLE EYE


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2009 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 16:14:45 N Lon : 147:15:52 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 970.4mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.4 5.9 6.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.8C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
1050. P451
Off to the beach I go. Probably the last good day left here in Jersey. Don't see any late Sept or early Oct beach days here THIS year.





....and whether this is doctored or real it's still cool.



That's my kind of Island. :o

1051. IKE
SAINTHURRIFAN...when was the last time you saw me arguing with 456?

SAINTHURRIFAN...go back and look at 2008. After IKE. A cold-front came through within a matter of a week. A substantial cold front. Now look at how many systems affected the northern gulf-coast after that happened....

I never said it was completely over with if a strong cold-front came through here. Read my post above...

If that front comes true and pushes through the SE USA, it's getting real close to being over along the northern GOM.


Those are my opinions and I moved on. Just like you said we should do on here.

I'll be waiting for your answer to my question.
Drak was on almost everyday before school started lol.
btw 23 has plagarised other material I caught him about a week or two ago doing so.

Quiet time in the Atlantic, enjoy it while it lasts a weak el nino can hold onto quiet conditions in the Atlantic basin for so long in Sept.

have a nice day :)
1053. P451
Quoting Tazmanian:
WE HAVE A PINE HOLE EYE


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2009 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 16:14:45 N Lon : 147:15:52 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 970.4mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.4 5.9 6.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.8C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE


even though it seems el nino is getting stronger with el mojo moving in and sept climatology record there'll be something soon canadian up to its old games this yr see where it puts fred
Looking forward to Dr. M's next installment of 'flying into Hurricane Hugo.'

Also curious about there being two planes and wonder if that is significant.


He said they were flying out of Barbados.
seems like all the characters are burned out. it like little league baseball at the end of the season all the parents are ready for it to end. unfornately there might be a surprise. plenty of suspect areas.
1057. jpsb
Quoting leftovers:
seems like all the characters are burned out. it like little league baseball at the end of the season all the parents are ready for it to end. unfornately there might be a surprise. plenty of suspect areas.
What's up with that blob right in front of the leeward islands?
Quoting Chicklit:
Looking forward to Dr. M's next installment of 'flying into Hurricane Hugo.'
Also curious about there being two planes and wonder if that is significant.

He said they were flying out of Barbados.


If you look up on the right side of this page under "recommended links" you will see one for "flying into Hugo" and that will end your wait and answer your questions.
Hi to all, my first post here. I have question regarding remnants of Fred. If it regenerates into tropical storm or even hurricane, would it still be Fred or in that case it gets new name?
Quoting ZvoneCro:
Hi to all, my first post here. I have question regarding remnants of Fred. If it regenerates into tropical storm or even hurricane, would it still be Fred or in that case it gets new name?

Fred
Quoting jpsb:
What's up with that blob right in front of the leeward islands?
I was looking at that too and wondering.
1062. hydrus
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I was looking at that too and wondering.
The hurricane center was talking about about that one yesterday, it is officially a wave.
E Carrib is dead zone.
1064. hydrus
Good morning kori-was wondering if you ever read my post about the 1982 storm.
not much homegrown this yr. shear has ruled
If Fred remnants regenerate it would not be Fred. It would get the next available name. This sit happened with Katrina. I don't believe it got past TD level but it fell apart. When it regenerated it got the next TD number.
Quoting Weather456:
Tropical Update for Monday 14 September 2009

Have a great day as downcasters will be out in force today.

:)



Yep...be prepared for "the season is over, see you next year" about 200 times to day
Quoting vortextrance:
If Fred remnants regenerate it would not be Fred. It would get the next available name. This sit happened with Katrina. I don't believe it got past TD level but it fell apart. When it regenerated it got the next TD number.


No it would become TD Fred if it redevelops. It still has a circulation. With Katrina the earlier td fell apart and its remnants, NOT a remnant low help form the TD that spawned Katrina.
1069. IKE
SAINTHURRIFAN...thanks for answering my question
Quoting ElConando:
Drak was on almost everyday before school started lol.
btw 23 has plagarised other material I caught him about a week or two ago doing so.

Quiet time in the Atlantic, enjoy it while it lasts a weak el nino can hold onto quiet conditions in the Atlantic basin for so long in Sept.

have a nice day :)


The word you are looking for is "plagiarized" and, much like the weather, just because you say it doesn't make it so...
Were lap 100 in a 200 mile race and its over? It never is dull in here, i'll say that! Mornin Flood and weather456

Quoting rareaire:
Were lap 100 in a 200 mile race and its over? It never is dull in here, i'll say that! Mornin Flood and weather456



Howdy, rare, my okie buddy...how was the weekend?
Quoting Floodman:


The word you are looking for is "plagiarized" and, much like the weather, just because you say it doesn't make it so...


so you want proof?
the area 7N 37w Looks a bit interesting. somehow reminds me of the initial pre existing spin of Ivan
sorry it took me so long to reply ike had a vp meeting, thats the breaks when you have 4500 employees working for you lol. what i stated was this constant nipping at each other thta started with erika. al so 456 has been nipping back at you about the gulf system and constant rip alantics dead post.and in reference to 2008,as you stated that was one year i ggave you examples of many plus was last year a el nino year? and with so many troughs in and out of the gulf wouldnt it be more likely for a bay of campeechie system to go notheast opal?
great finally got my daughters 69 buick Skylark convertible painted after 18 months of repairing it! Looks great if I do say so myself!
Good mornin' all. Hey Ike, I've been working all weekend and I just pulled up the CMC. What in the world is it picking up on in about 84 hours and ramming it right down our throats?
Im off to get breakfast and some coffee check in on you guys later, Be good
Quoting ElConando:


so you want proof?


Yes, please; I'd also like to see the statement he made that the inofrmation was written or created by him...in addition to that, I want to see any forecasts you've made where you've provided the provenance of the data...
Choi-Wan now a category two typhoon and is improving imensely. MNF in 8 and a half hours.
Quoting ElConando:


so you want proof?


Oh, by the way, WUMail it to me, if you would...I have an emergency dental appointment I'm on my way out to and it would be easier than me having to dig through the blog in a couple of hours trying to find it

Thanks!
1082. WxLogic
Good morning...
1083. IKE
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
sorry it took me so long to reply ike had a vp meeting, thats the breaks when you have 4500 employees working for you lol. what i stated was this constant nipping at each other thta started with erika. al so 456 has been nipping back at you about the gulf system and constant rip alantics dead post.and in reference to 2008,as you stated that was one year i ggave you examples of many plus was last year a el nino year? and with so many troughs in and out of the gulf wouldnt it be more likely for a bay of campeechie system to go notheast opal?


I don't talk to him. As far as what he says to me...I don't know or care what he says to me.

Yes, I had a disagreement with him when Erika was around. Since then, I've taken care of the problem on my end. He can fire away all he wants to.

Check back on his blogs. When he was made a featured blogger, I was one of the first to congratulate him. When Bill looked like it was aiming at his area, I posted on his blog wishing him luck.

Last year was not an El Nino year.

Have a nice day. I'm sorry, I didn't know you were unable to reply because of your job.

As far as the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season...it's the weather. I have more important things in my life to worry about, like my health and being able to pay my bills each month. Most people have more important things to worry about than the tropics.



amen ike but some on here make me wonder with the time they have to spend on here, back to lurking for another 3 years lol
1085. IKE
NEW BLOG!
1086. IKE
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
amen ike but some on here make me wonder with the time they have to spend on here, back to lurking for another 3 years lol


Saint...I work out of my house...a lot of my job is dealing with insurance companies on the net. I hope that explains why I'm on here...off and on.

Have a nice day.
fred is dead folks
fred is dead
Quoting leftovers:
fred is dead


Yeap R.I.P. Grace coming up in a few days...