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Fred Heading for Cape Verde Islands; Ignacio Skirting Hawaii

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 7:00 PM GMT on August 30, 2015

Residents of the Cape Verde islands are going through a rare experience today--a hurricane warning--as Tropical Storm Fred intensifies in the far eastern North Atlantic. As of 2:00 pm EDT, Fred was located near 14.1°N, 20.7°W, or about 195 miles east of the Cape Verde capital city of Praia. Outer rainbands are already beginning to reach the islands. The National Hurricane Center upgraded the storm from Invest 99L to Tropical Storm Fred in its 5:00 am EDT advisory, when it was located at 18.9°W longitude. This made Fred one of just a handful of systems in the last 60 years of satellite monitoring to become tropical storms east of 20°W, as reflected in NOAA’s HURDAT database. Others include eastward-moving, high-latitude Vince, 2005 (subtropical storm at 20.6°W, tropical storm at 19.3°W); Jeanne, 1998 (depression at 17.4°W, tropical storm at 19.4°W); and cyclonically arcing Ginger, 1967 (depression 18.3°W, tropical storm 18.1°W). Several unnamed storms in the HURDAT database are believed to have attained tropical storm strength east of 20.0°W, including:

Storm 3, 1900: 18.5°W
Storm 2, 1927: 19.3°W
Storm 6, 1948: 19.7°W
Storm 5, 1982: 19.5°W
Storm 6, 1988: 18.5°W


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Fred from NASA's Aqua satellite taken at approximately 9:00 am EDT Sunday, August 30, 2015. At the time, Fred had top sustained winds of 50 mph. The Cape Verde islands are outlined in the upper left corner. Image credit: NASA.

Fred is moving into a well-defined pocket of unusually warm sea-surface temperatures (1-2°C above average, or about 27-28°C) that surrounds the Cape Verdes. Since SSTs are often just marginally warm enough to support tropical cyclones near the islands, this warm pocket is a important piece of Fred’s future. Computer models differ enormously in where Fred will be by Thursday; the 120-hour positions from the early-cycle guidance produced at 1200 GMT Sunday vary by more than 500 miles. However, the models agree much more closely on track for the upcoming 48 hours, as Fred is projected to move steadily northwest through the heart of the northern Cape Verde islands. Neither of the high-resolution HWRF nor GFDL models bring Fred to hurricane strength, but statistical models push Fred just beyond that threshold, and NHC is citing these as well as the GFS and ECMWF models in predicting Fred to become a minimal hurricane by midday Monday local time. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Republic of Cabo Verde (the official name for the nation since 2013). To our knowledge, these are the first hurricane warnings on record for the islands; tropical storm warnings were posted for Humberto in 2013 and Julia in 2010 (see below).


Figure 2. Tracks of all tropical cyclones in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands from the NOAA historical database, which extends back to 1851 (although reports were scanty from the far eastern Atlantic until the satellite era began in the 1960s). Only a handful of tropical depressions (blue lines) and tropical storms (green lines) have affected the islands, and no direct hurricane landfalls (yellow lines) have been recorded. The two yellow tracks labeled above are an unnamed 1892 hurricane and 1998’s Hurricane Jeanne. Image credit: NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks.

A historic hurricane for the Cape Verdes?
The Atlantic's most terrifying and destructive hurricanes typically start as tropical waves that move off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verde islands. This class of storms is referred to as "Cape Verde hurricanes", in reference to their origin. Despite the fact that the Atlantic's most feared type of hurricanes are named after the Cape Verde islands, the islands themselves rarely receive significant impacts from one of their namesake storms. This is because tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa have very little time to organize into tropical storms before arriving at the Cape Verde islands, which lie just 350 miles west of the African coast. There is no reliable record of any bona fide hurricane having made landfall on the Cape Verde islands (see Figure 2). The closest analogue for Fred is an 1892 storm that bisected the islands, moving between the northern cluster (Ilhas do Barlavento, or windward islands) and the southern cluster (Ilhas do Sotavento, or leeward islands). This 1892 storm reportedly intensified to hurricane strength while passing south of the northwestern Cape Verde islands. Another close approach came from 1998’s Hurricane Jeanne, which reached hurricane strength while passing about 100 miles south of the southern islands. Decaying tropical cyclones in the open Atlantic have occasionally circled southeastward to take a swipe at the Cape Verdes as extratropical storms, but none have reached the island at hurricane strength.

According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, there have been only two deadly tropical cyclones in Cape Verde history. Like Jeanne, they both passed south of the Ilhas do Sotavento. The deadliest was Tropical Storm Fran of 1984, which brushed the southermost islands on September 16 as a tropical storm with 50-mph winds. Fran brought sustained winds of 35 mph and torrential rains to the islands. The rains triggered flash flooding that killed more than two dozen people and caused damages of almost $3 million (1984 dollars.) The other deadly named storm was Tropical Storm Beryl of 1982, which passed about 30 miles south of the southwestern islands on August 29, with 45-mph winds. The storm's heavy rains killed three people on Brava Island, injured 122, and caused $3 million in damage.


Figure 3. Track of Tropical Storm Fran of 1984, which brushed the southwestern Cape Verde islands on September 16 as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Torrential rains from Fran killed more than two dozen people in the Cape Verde islands, making it the deadliest storm in their history.

The most recent named storm to affect the islands was Hurricane Humberto of 2013, which passed the islands to the south as a tropical storm. Humberto brought wind gusts of up to 35 mph and heavy rain squalls to the islands, triggering flooding that washed out roads and damaged homes. Hurricane Julia of 2010, the easternmost Category 4 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic, passed about 50 miles south of Sao Filipe, on the island of Fogo in the southern Cape Verde islands, as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds, bringing wind gusts of 30 mph and some minor flooding.



Figure 4. Map of the Cape Verde islands (officially the Republic of Cabo Verde). Image credit: Wikimedia Commons/Oona Räisänen (Mysid).


Figure 5. Projected track of Tropical Storm Fred from the 11:00 am Sunday advisory issued by the U.S. National Hurricane Center. Image created with the WU Storm app.

Although all of the Cape Verde islands should prepare for a potential hurricane, Fred’s predicted track would bring the worst impacts across the northern islands (Ilhas do Barlavento), which are even less experienced than the southern islands at dealing with the high winds and heavy rain of tropical cyclones. Fred could make a direct landfall on more than one of the northern islands, as its track will be roughly parallel to this chain. Among the islands in line to feel Fred’s impacts first are the heavily touristed islands of Boa Vista and Sal, which lie on the stronger (right-hand) side of the projected path. Despite their name (which translates to “green cape” in English), the Cape Verde islands have a semi-desert climate, with an average annual rainfall of only around 10 inches, so the torrential rains of a tropical cyclone could have a big impact. Rains of 3-5” are predicted from Fred, with isolated totals of up to 8”. A direct landfall on the northwestern islands could produce not only heavy rain but high winds that would be extremely unusual, if not unprecedented.

Erika’s remnants are pouring on Florida, Cuba
Western Cuba and South Florida are getting a welcome dousing from the remnants of Tropical Storm Erika, which remain disorganized in the far southeast Gulf of Mexico. NHC gives the remnants only a 10 percent chance of regenerating into a tropical cyclone (which would again be named Erika) over the next five days as they slide northward along the west coast of Florida. The heavy rain is not so appreciated along the western half of the peninsula, where the last month has already brought 10-20” of rain and widespread flooding. Tampa needs less than an inch of rain through midnight Monday night to score its wettest July-August since records began in 1890 (old record 28.31” in 1960; total through noon EDT Sunday, 27.48”). Flash flood watches now cover all of central and southern Florida. “Our aquifers are full. There's no more areas for the water to percolate to," Ed Caum, a spokesman for Pasco County's emergency operations center, told the Associated Press on Saturday. Even as a leftover tropical cyclone, Erika may still cause significant damage in Florida over the next day or two. WU contributor Lee Grenci has some early thoughts on why Erika may have left forecast models, and forecasters, so perplexed.


Figure 6. Predicted total rainfall from 1200 GMT (8:00 am EDT) Sunday, August 30, through Friday, September 4. Image credit: NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

Three Category 4 storms lace the Pacific
It’s not every day you see three well-formed Category 4 hurricanes in a row. That’s been the case for the last 24 hours over the North Pacific, where Hurricane Jimena, Hurricane Ignacio, and Hurricane Kilo have made a most impressive trio. All three reached Category 4 strength on Saturday and remained there on Sunday morning, a rare feat.


Figure . Infrared satellite imagery from GOES-West reveals the crisp eyes of Category 4 hurricanes Kilo, Ignacio, and Jimena (left to right) at 1000 GMT (6:00 am EDT) Sunday, August 30. Image credit: NOAA National Hurricane Center.


A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the eastern Hawaiian islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe, and Hawaii (the Big Island), with Ignacio located about 420 miles east of Hilo as of 8:00 am HST (2:00 pm EDT) Sunday. Ignacio is packing winds of 130 mph, but its steady northwest track will take it well north of the islands. Tropical storm force winds extend out to 125 miles (mainly on the north side), so gusty conditions may occur, especially at higher elevations. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is warning that rainfall amounts of 2-4”, with isolated totals up to 6” at higher terrain, are still possible. There’s much higher confidence that huge waves will be impacting the islands: the CPHC warns of potential life-threatening surf, especially on the Big Island. There’s no record in the modern database of a hurricane this strong tracking north of the islands, so even well-experienced surfers could find themselves in unexpectedly treacherous conditions. Meanwhile, Jimena and Kilo are raging far away from any populated land areas; Jimena is expected to slowly weaken, while the Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects that long-lived Kilo will maintain at least Category 3 strength for the next five days as it undergoes a gradual westward turn through the subtropical North Pacific. Kilo may cross the International Date Line around Tuesday, at which point it would be dubbed Typhoon Kilo. This was the case for Genevieve in 2014 and Ioke in 2006.

We’ll be back with another update on Monday. Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 483. tampabaymatt:



Picked up another 1.26" yesterday. I'm up to 18.30" for August so far and 62.67" year to date. The Tampa reporting station at the airport has exceeded its wettest July-August period on record, with today still to go. let the deluge of 2015 continue.
Dang. That's two inches more than I've had since the end of May. I guess that area can absorb a pretty good amount of rain before you start having major problems. 18 inches of rain here in a month would cause lots of trouble.
The National Weather Service reported 6.25 inches of rain had fallen at Charleston International Airport between midnight and 8 a.m. EDT Monday morning, shattering the old daily record of 2.61 inches, achieved in 2006. It was already the second-wettest August day on record at the airport, which got more rain in under 8 hours than it had reported for the first 30 days of August, combined.
Quoting 502. ncstorm:

The National Weather Service reported 6.25 inches of rain had fallen at Charleston International Airport between midnight and 8 a.m. EDT Monday morning, shattering the old daily record of 2.61 inches, achieved in 2006. It was already the second-wettest August day on record at the airport, which got more rain in under 8 hours than it had reported for the first 30 days of August, combined.


one of the authenticated weather watchers recorded over 10 inches of rain....there is currently 2 ft of water in businesses on Rivers Ave in N. Charleston, if I could figure out how to post a pic I would post the pic of the mud slide less than 5 miles from my house....
504. MahFL
A lot of water vapor gathering, ready to head NE into FL:

Looks like the CMC is seeing the heavy rain for SC/NC as opposed to the NAM and GFS








Terra Satellite just got a shot of Fred.
Quoting 503. tiggeriffic:



one of the authenticated weather watchers recorded over 10 inches of rain....there is currently 2 ft of water in businesses on Rivers Ave in N. Charleston, if I could figure out how to post a pic I would post the pic of the mud slide less than 5 miles from my house....


This is what you need?


ABCNews4 Traffic
‏@abc4traffic

MUDSLIDE COMPLETELY BLOCKING DORCHESTER RD ON RAMP TO PARMOUNT DR
Quoting 503. tiggeriffic:



one of the authenticated weather watchers recorded over 10 inches of rain....there is currently 2 ft of water in businesses on Rivers Ave in N. Charleston, if I could figure out how to post a pic I would post the pic of the mud slide less than 5 miles from my house....


It was a disaster trying to come in to work this morning. I work at NWS (Naval Weapons Station) in Goose Creek. I live off of Ladson and Dorchester. It took me TWO HOURS to get from Ladson Rd to Red Bank Rd.
Quoting 507. ncstorm:



This is what you need?


ABCNews4 Traffic
‏@abc4traffic

MUDSLIDE COMPLETELY BLOCKING DORCHESTER RD ON RAMP TO PARMOUNT DR



yes, but that STILL doesn't teach me how to load a pic
Quoting 507. ncstorm:



This is what you need?


ABCNews4 Traffic
‏@abc4traffic

MUDSLIDE COMPLETELY BLOCKING DORCHESTER RD ON RAMP TO PARMOUNT DR



that's a sod slide.
Quoting 508. nash36:



It was a disaster trying to come in to work this morning. I work at NWS (Naval Weapons Station) in Goose Creek. I live off of Ladson and Dorchester. It took me TWO HOURS to get from Ladson Rd to Red Bank Rd.


glad you are ok.....I heard there is 2 feet of water on Rivers avenue IN THE BUSINESSES down near remount....ugh....


something to watch here!
Quoting 509. tiggeriffic:



yes, but that STILL doesn't teach me how to load a pic


I have snipping tool on my laptop..(if you have phone send pic to email) crop the pic on screen..saved it to desktop and then go to tinypic.com to upload it..copy image location and post..

I have no idea how to do it with Photos with WU..
Quoting 510. BobinTampa:



that's a sod slide.


it took everything off the solid base from the overpass....they put the dirt and let grass grow to keep the dirt and road from washing away....guess it didn't work too well now did it
Quoting 511. tiggeriffic:



glad you are ok.....I heard there is 2 feet of water on Rivers avenue IN THE BUSINESSES down near remount....ugh....


Dear god.....

That's bad news.
Quoting 515. nash36:



Dear god.....

That's bad news.


praying we don't get more rain at high tide tonight....ugh

Quoting 508. nash36:



It was a disaster trying to come in to work this morning. I work at NWS (Naval Weapons Station) in Goose Creek. I live off of Ladson and Dorchester. It took me TWO HOURS to get from Ladson Rd to Red Bank Rd.
Wow, that's insane! You've just confirmed for my sister why it was a good thing that she took the day off! ;) We only got a couple inches of rain here (not far from Main Street Summerville on 78) - couldn't believe when we looked at the radar and saw over 6 inches in some locales!
Quoting 516. tiggeriffic:



praying we don't get more rain at high tide tonight....ugh


Me too!! We've been in a drought all summer and needed the rain. We just didn't need it all at once!
Quoting 517. carolinabelle:


Wow, that's insane! You've just confirmed for my sister why it was a good thing that she took the day off! ;) We only got a couple inches of rain here (not far from Main Street Summerville on 78) - couldn't believe when we looked at the radar and saw over 6 inches in some locales!



it is atrocious in some places....if my youngest rode the bus, there is no way I would have sent him to school today....still trying to figure out how the kids DT got to school
Quoting 500. barbamz:


As reported in post #449 communication and electricity is down at least in parts of the island of Boa Vista which had been closest to Fred earlier this morning. So we might not hear anything of possible severe impacts for a while. At least this is what usually happens, unfortunately.
Yes, probably so. The airport (BVC/GVBA) on Boavista last reported a METAR observation at 0600 CV time, which would be 0500 UTC. There hasn't been a new report for about eight hours now, and the last report was wind of 56 knots with gusts to 65 knots. The few flights look like they all operate after 1400 local, but I haven't been able to get any information about if the airport is closed. I assume it is.
Ha..

Bryan Luhn ‏@bryluhn 1h1 hour ago

Even the gators are like "enough with the rain, mmmkay?" (thx Allison McCutcheon in Shadowmoss!) #chswx @WCBD

Hmmm..

Link
Quoting 518. nash36:



Me too!! We've been in a drought all summer and needed the rain. We just didn't need it all at once!


well according to the pics I have seen, it DEFINATELY isn't soaking in......

Quoting 519. tiggeriffic:



it is atrocious in some places....if my youngest rode the bus, there is no way I would have sent him to school today....still trying to figure out how the kids DT got to school
Agreed! The only one we have riding the bus is our niece and she lives all the way up near Jedburg - not near as much rain there, thankfully!
Quoting 521. ncstorm:

Ha..

Bryan Luhn ‏@bryluhn 1h1 hour ago

Even the gators are like "enough with the rain, mmmkay?" (thx Allison McCutcheon in Shadowmoss!) #chswx @WCBD




HA....the gator is funny, but I did hear that people in Shadowmoss were stranded...that is about 3 miles or so from my house....
Quoting 517. carolinabelle:


Wow, that's insane! You've just confirmed for my sister why it was a good thing that she took the day off! ;) We only got a couple inches of rain here (not far from Main Street Summerville on 78) - couldn't believe when we looked at the radar and saw over 6 inches in some locales!



Hey, Carolinabelle.

I knew it was pretty nasty out, when the rain actually woke me from a dead sleep around 5am. I usually sleep like driftwood through storms and heavy rains, but this one sounded like a car wash hitting my upstairs windows.
Gorgeous morning out on Longboat Key today. Slight ESE breeze and mostly blue skies. Rain hasn't gotten to us yet, though it looks like it's slowly making it's way here. Thunderheads visible to our south. Shouldn't be too bad, though - probably more like our typical tropical rainfall.
Quoting 525. tiggeriffic:



HA....the gator is funny, but I did hear that people in Shadowmoss were stranded...that is about 3 miles or so from my house....


In Shadowmoss..

Quoting 526. nash36:



Hey, Carolinabelle.

I knew it was pretty nasty out, when the rain actually woke me from a dead sleep around 5am. I usually sleep like driftwood through storms and heavy rains, but this one sounded like a car wash hitting my upstairs windows.


agreed....then the phones started screaming because of the apps for weather warnings....flood warnings all over the place....it screamed on n off till I finally got out of bed....
Quoting 509. tiggeriffic:



yes, but that STILL doesn't teach me how to load a pic
1. Copy the link.
2. Click on the picture frame looking icon below the posting box
3. Paste
4. Click OK

That should work.

Quoting 526. nash36:



Hey, Carolinabelle.

I knew it was pretty nasty out, when the rain actually woke me from a dead sleep around 5am. I usually sleep like driftwood through storms and heavy rains, but this one sounded like a car wash hitting my upstairs windows.
Yes!! It was the same here! ... that and the weather radio going off non-stop...
Quoting 528. ncstorm:



In Shadowmoss..




Ok, that's bad.
Quoting 528. ncstorm:



In Shadowmoss..




Shadowmoss is off of hwy 61...I live off 61 as well but closer to DT....
Huge mass of tropical moisture spreading North into the Central Eastern Coastal Seaboard as noted below. It's going to take some time for the whole mess to clear out it seems:



Southeast sector loop


Quoting 508. nash36:



It was a disaster trying to come in to work this morning. I work at NWS (Naval Weapons Station) in Goose Creek. I live off of Ladson and Dorchester. It took me TWO HOURS to get from Ladson Rd to Red Bank Rd.


What position do you hold there? I went to NWS Charleston for Nuclear Power School before being shipped up to Balston Spa, NY for prototype.
Quoting 526. nash36:



Hey, Carolinabelle.

I knew it was pretty nasty out, when the rain actually woke me from a dead sleep around 5am. I usually sleep like driftwood through storms and heavy rains, but this one sounded like a car wash hitting my upstairs windows.
Was all this predicted? Maybe with all the Florida noise, I missed it.
Another pic of Shadowmoss...

these pics are all from WCBD twitter page..

Quoting 535. Stoopid1:



What position do you hold there? I went to NWS Charleston for Nuclear Power School before being shipped up to Balston Spa, NY for prototype.


IT manager at Fleet and Family.
Quoting 533. tiggeriffic:



Shadowmoss is off of hwy 61...I live off 61 as well but closer to DT....
What's DT? And why didn't that person who I guess had been in that car pull it up into the driveway? I guess the explanation that makes sense is that they were dumb enough to drive it into the water and there it sits, stalled and trashed.
Quoting 536. sar2401:

Was all this predicted? Maybe with all the Florida noise, I missed it.


To a lesser degree. NWS did not forsee THAT many inches of rain.
Quoting 540. nash36:



To a lesser degree. NWS did not forsee THAT many inches of rain.


Here is the "updated" SPC chart; that zonal flow to the North is putting a wrinkle in the short-term model output; not as much rain in Florida as noted and most of it is moving up the coast:



Quoting 522. Buhdog:

Hmmm..

Link
Link doesn't work. What were you "Hmmm" ing about?
Fred is intensifying, imho. Guess it's not a good sign, that Cabo Verde's live report site didn't got any news from Boa Vista and Sal for hours. Live cam in Santa Maria, at the southern coast of Sal, became blurry, probably due to high winds. BTW, the cam is run by a modern hotel - probably a very priviledged place to be on that island right now. Here a photo gallery./a>
Here a
link to the same webcam with a wider angle.


Saved current pic. Click it to get the latest loop.


Boa Vista and Sal just northeast of Fred's COC.

Edit:
Eder Semedo @EderShamir 12 Min.Vor 12 Minuten
#Fred has caused no casualties in Cabo Verde yet, though some communities on Sal Island are currently being evacuated.
Dr. M was correct again with his 40-50% chance of Erika dissipating. I fully agreed with his chances and many on here were sold on all the model support for a landfalling storm in FL. Havent seen Scott today, he must be eating the crow lol. Still looks rainy though but that will be welcome for South FL.
Quoting 539. sar2401:

What's DT? And why didn't that person who I guess had been in that car pull it up into the driveway? I guess the explanation that makes sense is that they were dumb enough to drive it into the water and there it sits, stalled and trashed.


DT is downtown....Nash, myself, carolinabelle, and others live a little higher...DT is at sea level....they built a retaining wall basically to hold back the ocean....the pics you are looking at is well over 20 ft above sea level....and many people park on the side of the road instead of their driveway....that could have been the case....water is in houses anyway you look at it....

Quoting 537. ncstorm:

Another pic of Shadowmoss...

these pics are all from WCBD twitter page..


Quoting 540. nash36:



To a lesser degree. NWS did not forsee THAT many inches of rain.
I didn't think I had heard much about flood forecasts up your way. I do remember wondering what was going to happen as that slug of moisture that had been off the Florida coast was moving up your way yesterday afternoon. That was supposed to stay parked over Florida today, but it got moved out into the Gulf Stream by the trough that moved a lot further east than was forecast.
Quoting 536. sar2401:

Was all this predicted? Maybe with all the Florida noise, I missed it.


I heard the other day 3-5" max.....but that was for the entire time it was to go over us...over several days....not double that amount is 6 hours
Quoting 542. sar2401:

Link doesn't work. What were you "Hmmm" ing about?

May not be my business, but the link works for me.....
Quoting 544. CapeCoralWx:

Dr. M was correct again with his 40-50% chance of Erika dissipating. I fully agreed with his chances and many on here were sold on all the model support for a landfalling storm in FL. Havent seen Scott today, he must be eating the crow lol. Still looks rainy though but that will be welcome for South FL.
[Redacted] doesn't eat crow. We'll get a land-falling system in 2016 and he'll say "told you so".
Quoting 545. tiggeriffic:



DT is downtown....Nash, myself, carolinabelle, and others live a little higher...DT is at sea level....they built a retaining wall basically to hold back the ocean....the pics you are looking at is well over 20 ft above sea level....and many people park on the side of the road instead of their driveway....that could have been the case....water is in houses anyway you look at it....


Ah, downtown. Wouldn't have figured that out in a million years. I'm sure many people park on the street, but probably not many leave their headlights on. Do you know where that last picture is at? I wonder if that's a golf course lake that overflowed or part of a drainage?
Another newer and closer look at the wave currently moving westward across Nigeria:

I am going to get snarky for just a minute here....this is for all of those who said that because Erika WASNT hitting as a hurricane it was a NON EVENT..... I dare you to say that to the families of the dead and missing. I dare you to say that to the businesses that are flooded with 2 feet of water. I dare you to say that to the peoples whose homes are flooded. I am lucky...no damage yet but it also isn't over yet....we have been warned that more rain is coming....I realize that people come here because they want to track a CANE....that is all well and good....but don't think for one second that just because you didn't see a Hugo, Andrew or Katrina that what happened was devastating to some....{{off my soapbox now}}
Quoting 548. WeatherBAC:


May not be my business, but the link works for me.....
Sure it's your business. We're all in this together. No matter what I do, including pasting the link manually and getting rid of what look like extraneous characters, I can't get it to work. I'm using Chrome. What do you see there that should be of interest?
Quoting 553. tiggeriffic:

I am going to get snarky for just a minute here....this is for all of those who said that because Erika WASNT hitting as a hurricane it was a NON EVENT..... I dare you to say that to the families of the dead and missing. I dare you to say that to the businesses that are flooded with 2 feet of water. I dare you to say that to the peoples whose homes are flooded. I am lucky...no damage yet but it also isn't over yet....we have been warned that more rain is coming....I realize that people come here because they want to track a CANE....that is all well and good....but don't think for one second that just because you didn't see a Hugo, Andrew or Katrina that what happened was devastating to some....{{off my soapbox now}}


Well said!!! And.....water is much more devastating than wind. Give me a CAT 1 hurricane ANY DAY, over a slow, meandering, weak low pressure system. That low pressure system ends up causing more pain more times than the hurricane.
Quoting 551. sar2401:

Ah, downtown. Wouldn't have figured that out in a million years. I'm sure many people park on the street, but probably not many leave their headlights on. Do you know where that last picture is at? I wonder if that's a golf course lake that overflowed or part of a drainage?


I am thinking that they were trying to get it BACK in the driveway after they saw the water....or the fact that this area doesn't flood quite like THAT...I have been in 4-6 inches of water in our area but NOT 2 feet....not West of the Ashley where we are....Shadowmoss is a subdivision on a Golf course....but all neighborhoods have drainage ponds as there is no where for water to go when it does rain....I know that blue house....my husband built many of the houses out there (well at least wired them)....that is why the gator was mad I guess....they live in the drainage ponds and now they are all the way in the houses....waiting to see what happens with the snakes
Mayci McLeod ‏@MayciWCBD 3m3 minutes ago

Chas. Volunteer rescue squad just arrived here at Shadowmoss neighborhood @WCBD #chsnews #chswx

Quoting 552. Neapolitan:

Another newer and closer look at the wave currently moving westward across Nigeria:



Yes, system with impressive rotation. Go here and click a few frames to get a loop.
Quoting 554. sar2401:

Sure it's your business. We're all in this together. No matter what I do, including pasting the link manually and getting rid of what look like extraneous characters, I can't get it to work. I'm using Chrome. What do you see there that should be of interest?


I'm using Chrome as well, but as far as interest, its just a live radar of the entire state of Florida, on the South Florida Water management site.
The wave that I have been monitoring over Africa looks highly impressive and the GFS turns it into Grace at some point.It looks like a storm already with great spin.Seems it'll come off the coast as a low rider.
Quoting 547. tiggeriffic:



I heard the other day 3-5" max.....but that was for the entire time it was to go over us...over several days....not double that amount is 6 hours
It definitely got enhanced yesterday evening. It looks like Charleston NWS started highlighting he flooding threat, especially downtown, after about 4:00 yesterday afternoon. I don't think, even then, they expected record amounts of rain today.
Here's a site for local Tampa area views + state level radar, etc:Link
Quoting 559. WeatherBAC:



I'm using Chrome as well, but as far as interest, its just a live radar of the entire state of Florida, on the South Florida Water management site.
Strange. I do really wish people would make some comment about what's in a link rather than posting "Hmmm..." or "Interesting". There are thousands of people who read these posts daily who have no idea what they're supposed to find interesting.
Quoting 561. sar2401:

It definitely got enhanced yesterday evening. It looks like Charleston NWS started highlighting he flooding threat, especially downtown, after about 4:00 yesterday afternoon. I don't think, even then, they expected record amounts of rain today.


I can promise you, they did not expect the terrific amount of rain we received. Charleston NWS is top-notch, no question, but this one caught everyone with their pants down.
Quoting 561. sar2401:

It definitely got enhanced yesterday evening. It looks like Charleston NWS started highlighting he flooding threat, especially downtown, after about 4:00 yesterday afternoon. I don't think, even then, they expected record amounts of rain today.


the thing is, we are under flood warnings every night during astronomical high tides even when there is NO rain....the roads DT flood from salt water....this was just being inundated by BOTH at the same time....DT will flood when the rest of us are ok...all the pics you are seeing are well over sea level....
Definitely nothing all that impressive down here.
But I'm watching that heavy rain that is just sitting offshore of S.W. Florida. It's getting very close to moving into the beaches. So we'll see how much rain we get to add to our August totals today.

Another bad beach day.
Quoting 556. tiggeriffic:



I am thinking that they were trying to get it BACK in the driveway after they saw the water....or the fact that this area doesn't flood quite like THAT...I have been in 4-6 inches of water in our area but NOT 2 feet....not West of the Ashley where we are....Shadowmoss is a subdivision on a Golf course....but all neighborhoods have drainage ponds as there is no where for water to go when it does rain....I know that blue house....my husband built many of the houses out there (well at least wired them)....that is why the gator was mad I guess....they live in the drainage ponds and now they are all the way in the houses....waiting to see what happens with the snakes
I guess some people's depth perception with water isn't too good if they could back into that and then get facing forward. That picture looked like a water retention pond that has overflowed. The concept works great if you're further downstream for the flood, but not so good if your home is right next to the pond. I think I'd avoid going into the water there regardless of how deep it was until all the snakes get back to where they belong. 8-0
Quoting 565. tiggeriffic:



the thing is, we are under flood warnings every night during astronomical high tides even when there is NO rain....the roads DT flood from salt water....this was just being inundated by BOTH at the same time....DT will flood when the rest of us are ok...all the pics you are seeing are well over sea level....
Kind of like Venice. St. Mark's Square floods every month at astronomical high tide. I guess the flood wall doesn't work to keep that out then?
Where's the hurricane at in Florida?

lmao
Quoting 569. SouthTampa:

And definitely not my business, but why would you click on a link that just says "hmmmm"?


Curiosity got the best of me... Lol
Quoting 568. sar2401:

I guess some people's depth perception with water isn't too good if they could back into that and then get facing forward. That picture looked like a water retention pond that has overflowed. The concept works great if you're further downstream for the flood, but not so good if your home is right next to the pond. I think I'd avoid going into the water there regardless of how deep it was until all the snakes get back to where they belong. 8-0


like I said....we don't get rain like that ....hardly ever....today was in the top 5 in history....the airport got 6.49 inches and our area actually got about 10....the car wasn't near the drainage pond....but they have ditches that lead to the ponds as well....shadowmoss is pretty much trashed....and Tiger Woods wont be playing golf there anytime soon (nor will anyone else for that matter)....like I said...average for deep water in our area is about 4-6 inches....I still am thinking they were trying to get it out of the water and got in literally over their head(lights)
Quoting 569. SouthTampa:

And definitely not my business, but why would you click on a link that just says "hmmmm"?
First thing I did was check the link source. Looked OK to me in terms of it being malicious, but I agree. I hate all the naked links that get posted here. Most websites don't allow it.

Current loop of cloud top temperatures in Europe: those very serious storms of which Estofex is warning, are now developing in Spain and the Netherlands.

New wave incoming.
Quoting 571. sar2401:

Kind of like Venice. St. Mark's Square floods every month at astronomical high tide. I guess the flood wall doesn't work to keep that out then?


oh, it keeps it off the roads at the wall lol....just not off the roads that LEAD to the wall....but when that wall was built, they didn't know about the hurricanes, etc...figure that same wall has been here since before the civil war
The sun is out here in central Florida. Daytime heating along with the big flow of moisture from the gulf should fire some strong storms this afternoon. The lake I live in is up about 2 feet. Most of the docks are under water or close to it. Definitely a wet summer around here. I would psot a pic but I can't figure it out off if my phone.
Quoting 579. hulazigzag:

The sun is out here in central Florida. Daytime heating along with the big flow of moisture from the gulf should fire some strong storms this afternoon. The lake I live in is up about 2 feet. Most of the docks are under water or close to it. Definitely a wet summer around here. I would psot a pic but I can't figure it out off if my phone.


Email it to yourself
Quoting 552. Neapolitan:

Another newer and closer look at the wave currently moving westward across Nigeria:


Looks like a tropical storm already..I,ve seen named systems that didnt look half that good..:)
Quoting 560. washingtonian115:

The wave that I have been monitoring over Africa looks highly impressive and the GFS turns it into Grace at some point.It looks like a storm already with great spin.Seems it'll come off the coast as a low rider.

Yep.. The low riders concern me the most.
Quoting 581. hydrus:

Looks like a tropical storm already..I,ve seen named systems that didnt look half that good..:)
When do you think the NHC is going to highlight this system?
Quoting 580. win1gamegiantsplease:



Email it to yourself


bingo
email it to yourself and then save it on your computer or something like photobucket, etc.
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 23.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF RIBEIRA BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF RABIL IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES ...

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fred was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 23.7 West. Fred is moving toward
the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is
expected to pass near or over the northwestern Cape Verde Islands
later today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through
early tonight while Fred moves through the Cape Verde Islands.
Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue spreading
across the northern Cape Verde Islands today. Hurricane conditions
are occurring over portions of the northeastern Cape Verde Islands
and are expected to spread northwestward over portions of the
northern and northwestern Cape Verde Islands through tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory,
and in some elevated locations can be even greater.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 10 inches. These rains could produce life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
Source.




Quoting 563. sar2401:

Strange. I do really wish people would make some comment about what's in a link rather than posting "Hmmm..." or "Interesting". There are thousands of people who read these posts daily who have no idea what they're supposed to find interesting.
Quoting 583. allancalderini:

When do you think the NHC is going to highlight this system?


If it holds up and is on the verge of entering the ocean I'm sure models will pick up on it and the NHC will be watching.
Quoting 584. Sfloridacat5:



bingo
email it to yourself and then save it on your computer or something like photobucket, etc.


I generally email it to myself and upload it straight to wunderphotos, I don't take enough of them to open a flickr or whatever.
Quoting 575. sar2401:

First thing I did was check the link source. Looked OK to me in terms of it being malicious, but I agree. I hate all the naked links that get posted here. Most websites don't allow it.
Aside from the security concerns (as you mentioned), it's bad form. I tend to put the "check this out" posters on the long list of ignored. If you're going to post a link; provide some analysis, even if it's quoting from the linked page. Just posting a link is spam.
Quoting 498. islander101010:

watched jbs clip this wkend. he mentioned from central calif north to washington state should remain dry this upcoming winter. what about our el nino?


Seems very unlikely. But who's "jbs"?
Quoting 563. sar2401:

Strange. I do really wish people would make some comment about what's in a link rather than posting "Hmmm..." or "Interesting". There are thousands of people who read these posts daily who have no idea what they're supposed to find interesting.


Sar, the precipitation field looks like it has some spin. Highly unlikely, however.
Quoting 582. hydrus:

Yep.. The low riders concern me the most.


I just took a look at the 06z GFS just for kicks, it does put a low slightly north of where Erika went, just south of east of PR albeit weak (not to mention 200+ hrs away).
Quoting 502. ncstorm:

The National Weather Service reported 6.25 inches of rain had fallen at Charleston International Airport between midnight and 8 a.m. EDT Monday morning, shattering the old daily record of 2.61 inches, achieved in 2006. It was already the second-wettest August day on record at the airport, which got more rain in under 8 hours than it had reported for the first 30 days of August, combined.


Wow. I'm not actually in the city right now, I'm visiting my daughter in Lexington, but that's quite a statement. We had SCAD TONS of rain in August. It poured buckets every afternoon the week before last. To say that we then got more in one day than we had all month of THAT kind of precip... yeeps.
Quoting 539. sar2401:

What's DT? And why didn't that person who I guess had been in that car pull it up into the driveway? I guess the explanation that makes sense is that they were dumb enough to drive it into the water and there it sits, stalled and trashed.


I've had the experience of driving to work on a city street in a downpour, stuck in traffic at a long red light, no way to go forward or back. And then the water suddenly just started coming up under me when the sewer system was overwhelmed. It happened in about a minute. Luckily for me, the guy behind me finally backed up a little and turned into a parking lot that was higher than the road, allowing me to back up and go up into that same parking lot. But by that time the water was pouring into my car under the door. It was a mess. I was stuck in that parking lot for a few hours till the water receded enough for me to go to work.
So now, when I see someone stuck like that, I give them the benefit of the doubt that maybe they didn't just drive into it. Maybe it came up to them.
Chrissy Kohler ‏@ChrissyKohler 21m21 minutes ago

King tides could still cause coastal flood tonight. High tide is at 10:15 PM. #chswx #scwx
Good morning!

It's 92, feeling like 101, a light breeze with a few clouds meandering around here on the island today.

Just popped in to take a glance east at what's going on. We have a camping trip scheduled for this long weekend and it's looking good!! :-))

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy
Quoting 560. washingtonian115:

The wave that I have been monitoring over Africa looks highly impressive and the GFS turns it into Grace at some point.It looks like a storm already with great spin.Seems it'll come off the coast as a low rider.



Cape Verde islands get hit twice in a row?
Quoting 563. sar2401:

Strange. I do really wish people would make some comment about what's in a link rather than posting "Hmmm..." or "Interesting". There are thousands of people who read these posts daily who have no idea what they're supposed to find interesting.
Well said my Friend. And thanks to those that posted the nice sat images of Africa today, excellant! That lowrider impresses me.
WCBD retweeted
Mayci McLeod ‏@MayciWCBD 2m2 minutes ago

Rescue squad tells me flooding will probably last another 48 hours @WCBD #chsnews #chswx

Quoting 591. BayFog:



Seems very unlikely. But who's "jbs"?


I assume Joe Bistardi
Quoting 601. ncstorm:

WCBD retweeted
Mayci McLeod ‏@MayciWCBD 2m2 minutes ago

Rescue squad tells me flooding will probably last another 48 hours @WCBD #chsnews #chswx




I don't tweet, twitter, etc....my phone doesn't stop as it is with the apps I have lol....I would NEVER get anything done lol
Quoting 602. win1gamegiantsplease:



I assume Joe Bistardi

It's true that El Nino usually brings drier than normal weather to the PacNW, but the past two strong El Nino's brought epic rains to Northern and Central California.
Interesting tidbit, Brad Panovich is saying the flooding in Charleston is not from ex Erika but ex Danny..

Brad Panovich@wxbrad 3h3 hours ago

Agree with Chick here Charleston flooding might be more from #Danny remnants.


Brad Panovich@wxbrad 3h3 hours ago

Flooding this morning in Charleston not associated with the remnants of #Erka, those are still down near FL.


I just heard on our local news at noon that they were rescuing handicapped people from the neighborhood that is flooded....just wow
Long ago wunderground established a means to show a reader every link's URL before clicking through to the linked site. A popup shows the reader the URL where they are heading and gives a choice whether or not to continue. Kind of like - what do they call that? - oh yeah, caller ID. Don't continue to the link if you don't understand where the link is taking you.

Someone posting a malicious link could and would likely describe it as something non-suspicious. So always check out that popup.

Take care ((Tigger)) and other readers in Charleston. Even if you are not in area that's flooding, heavy rain can change your life.
Quoting 539. sar2401:

What's DT? And why didn't that person who I guess had been in that car pull it up into the driveway? I guess the explanation that makes sense is that they were dumb enough to drive it into the water and there it sits, stalled and trashed.

DT=Downtown Charleston.
The person with the car was (most likely) parked on the street (not unusual). They were probably quite surprised by that amount of water quickly rising where the car was. Since the head lights are on, I would guess they tried to drive the car out of that mess. Once the water is over your tailpipes, you should push it out and NOT try to start it until you are on a bit higher ground.
Locals get used to driving though flooded streets, but we have a lot of people who relocate here. (Think Ohio). They are no more experienced in flooded streets, than we are in snow.
It is disconcerting to see water gush out of the drain pipes as the tide rises. Salt water not good for the car, you know.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
you got mail bay frog. as for the charleston flooding i believe it was from outflow boundaries of erika after she plowed into hispanola. the boundaries gave us over 2" and more than likely collided with some other boundaries to create these large amounts of rain in s.carol..
Wishcasters jump for joy! Lower shear (red areas now gone in MDR), MJO favorable, climatology, strong lows moving off Africa... point to some MDR action coming.
Quoting 558. barbamz:


Yes, system with impressive rotation. Go here and click a few frames to get a loop.
By the time the wave move out of Africa the high should be back in place, keeping it moving west...unlike fred.