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Fred fading; halfway point of hurricane season reached

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:40 PM GMT on September 10, 2009

Hurricane Fred peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon, attaining Category 3 strength with 120 mph winds. It is quite unusual to have such a powerful system so far east in the Atlantic, and Fred is only the third major hurricane to exist east of 35W. Fred is also the strongest hurricane so far south and east in the data record. However, this type of system would have been difficult to document before satellite pictures began in the 1960s.

Fred's glory is past, and the storm is on a downslide now, thanks to moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and dry air eating into the hurricane's southwest side. The shear and the dry air will increase over the next few days, with the shear rising above 40 knots by Monday morning. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) will also cool to near the 26.5°C threshold needed to sustain a tropical cyclone. The combination of high shear, dry air, and cool SSTs will likely kill Fred by Tuesday.


Figure 1. Hurricane Fred at peak strength, 8:55am EDT UTC 9/9/09. At the time, Fred was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An upper-level low pressure system has moved over Texas and is expected to spawn a surface low pressure system along the Texas Gulf of Mexico coast on Friday. This low will probably have characteristics of both a tropical and extratropical storm. The surface low is likely to move northeastward and move ashore near the Texas/Louisiana border region on Saturday or Sunday. There will be some high wind shear to the west of the low (shear is currently a high 25 knots), so it is uncertain whether this low will be capable of developing into a tropical cyclone. Regardless, this storm will bring heavy rain capable of causing flooding--and help alleviate the exceptional drought conditions over Southeast Texas.

Early next week, we should be alert for tropical storm development over the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina, along an old frontal zone. None of the reliable models are forecasting tropical storm development in this area or in the Gulf of Mexico, though.


Figure 2. The climatological halfway point of the Atlantic hurricane season is today, September 10.

Halfway point of hurricane season
September 10 marks the halfway point of the Atlantic hurricane season. Despite a late start (Tropical Storm Ana did not form until August 15, the latest start to a hurricane season since 1992), our number of storms has been near average. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 5 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane by the midpoint of the season. So far this year, we've had 6 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. A better measure of hurricane activity that takes into account their destructive power is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index. ACE for an individual storm is computed by squaring the maximum sustained winds of the storm at each 6-hourly advisory, and summing up over the entire lifetime of the storm. As of 5am EDT this morning, the seasonal ACE tally was 37.5. This number should rise to around 40 by the end of the day, thanks to the presence of Hurricane Fred. Over the period 1950 - 2005, the average ACE index for a half-season was 51, so 2009 ranks about 20% below average for the halfway point of the season. But when compared to the hurricane seasons we've been having since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, this year has been quite inactive. Between 1995 and 2008, the average ACE index for the halfway point of the season was 72. Thus, 2009 is about 45% less active than what we've been accustomed to over the past 14 years.

We've been lucky this year that the steering currents have aligned to keep our two major hurricanes, Bill and Fred, out to sea. What will the rest of the season have in store for us? I'll present an analysis on Friday.

Twenty years ago on this date
On September 10, 1989, the strong tropical wave that had moved off the coast of Africa the previous day acquired an organized circulation at the surface and began building a concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms near its center. A new tropical depression, the 12th of the season, was born. Moving westward at 20 mph, the depression brought strong, gusty winds and heavy rain showers to the Cape Verdes Islands as it passed to the south. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center predicted that the steadily organizing tropical depression would strengthen into a tropical storm within the next day or two. The next name on the list of Atlantic tropical storm names for 1989: Hugo.


Figure 3. AVHRR visible satellite image of Tropical Depression Twelve taken on September 10, 1989. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting homelesswanderer:


Ch 6 said that it could be a tropical depression or storm, slow to develop, head this way with tons of rain.

Ch 12 doesn't think it will develop, but it could. they think we will only see 20 or 25 mph winds. Alot of rain but not as much as ch 6.


Thanks so much
Quoting weatherganny:


Thanks so much


You're welcome.
1504. hydrus
Quoting ElConando:
Shear has lowered in the Western/central GOM now as evidence by the amount of cloud cover. However shear is still imo affecting convection from forming.
Have no illusions, El-Conando, things are going to get really interesting with our tropical waters. Just my harmless opinion.
Quoting weatherganny:


I know,I live on the Texas/La border and I missed what they said.They are my locals too.I really would appreciate it.


oh,ok - sorry

channel 6

Watching Low Near Brownsville....



Low pressure is slowly becoming better organized near Brownsville this evening. This low will likely move slowly to the north-northeast and has some potential for some development. It is possible that it could become a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next 24-36 hours. The low should move inland near Freeport Saturday with widespread heavy rains spreading into our area. In fact through Sunday, rainfall totals to near 10 inches will be possible in isolated spots. With plenty of clouds, temperatures will be below normal for afternoon highs.

1506. Seawall
Thanks for the comments from Channel 6; I can't receive them anymore since I'm east of Vidor, on the LA line.
Howdy guys, just thought I'd stop by for a little while, finished some more math, no problems with is tonight xD
1509. hydrus
Quoting JLPR:
yep Georges went right thru PR
The last one to manage that was Jeanne in 04 as a TS

I remember there was a calm in the storm, the eye, which we used to secure a shrub tree that is in our front yard since it had fallen to the right
and thanks to that it is still in my front yard today =]
where in P.R. are you?
1510. JLPR
Quoting hydrus:
where in P.R. are you?


Carolina
1512. hydrus
Quoting tornadodude:
Howdy guys, just thought I'd stop by for a little while, finished some more math, no problems with is tonight xD
I use to love math. Until they put a nifty page of calculus in my face...aaaarrrrgggghhhh!!!!
Quoting TexasHurricane:


oh,ok - sorry

channel 6

Watching Low Near Brownsville....



Low pressure is slowly becoming better organized near Brownsville this evening. This low will likely move slowly to the north-northeast and has some potential for some development. It is possible that it could become a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next 24-36 hours. The low should move inland near Freeport Saturday with widespread heavy rains spreading into our area. In fact through Sunday, rainfall totals to near 10 inches will be possible in isolated spots. With plenty of clouds, temperatures will be below normal for afternoon highs.


thanks, I try to learn on here to keep up with any storms since rita. I don't like for them to sneak up on us at all. Sometimes I know alot more from trying to learn and stay informed on this blog than I do from any news channel, of course I do appreciate all of our news channels.
iceman i can't see ur posts
Quoting hydrus:
I use to love math. Until they put a nifty page of calculus in my face...aaaarrrrgggghhhh!!!!


haha yuck!!! oh well :P
1516. hydrus
Quoting JLPR:


Carolina
lol..wheres Carolina? north..south..east..west..
1518. JLPR
Last images of Fred before the blackout

Delaware bay bouy near Cape May.

Must be tough on the Lewes Cape May Ferry this eve...

Link
Well channel 12 said pretty much rain event tomorrow and lots saturday for sure. Then goes to oh yea fred's out there and then a wet day for us tomorrow and saturday
1521. JLPR
Quoting hydrus:
lol..wheres Carolina? north..south..east..west..


Northeast
yeah, well i evacuated for Rita, Ike, and Gustav...never again...screw it...my house was ok, i have a well, and I have gas and food....more than a cat 3, i'll go to Alex, but Im home the day after
Quoting iceman55:
u for really

nevermind maybe u put a blank on it lol
1527. centex
Blog warning. Yesterday a so called troll predicted named storm in GOM this weekend. Everyone jumped on him for being a troll and making outrageous claims without any supporting data. Fact, he did present some data and reasoning, while limited it was not off the wall. Shame on you guys/gals for jumping on each trop forecast which does not match NHC at point in time. There must have been over 20 post critical of post and calling names. I think it was more reasonable than most post on this blog. Who is being professional? There is an arrogance to accept only NHC similar caster and trash everyone else, I guess everyone must put percent chance in claims. I guess this one was suggesting greater than 50, NHC now saying less than 30, so we better label them a troll. Sorry for long essay but blog and regulars have a problem too.
1528. hydrus
Quoting Progster:
Delaware bay bouy near Cape May.

Must be tough on the Lewes Cape May Ferry this eve...

Link
Yes, I hope she stayed home.
http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/wna_10m_gfs_00z.htm#

Check this out. Very interesting.Gfs jumps a low from south of Corpus to east of Houston in 6 Hrs. time. Then senda another low up the coast on the 13th. Any thoughts ?
1530. Gumluvr
Quoting TexNowNM:
Gumluvr,

O-field is on a salt dome, thank God! Everybody, almost, got water except O-field. Some of the homes in the school district took water, and down the main road water came up from the bayou over the road, but no homes in O-field itself had water. It is pretty darn scary when you look at a map and see that area in the middle still dry, but water all around. It was weird! Mom and Dad didn't even have water get out of the banks of the drainage ditch by their house but most of the rest of the south part of the county flooded. An old survey mark (I mean old!) on my uncles land is 17 feet. That is pretty high for that part of Orange county.

According to the NOAA maps, we could get 10 feet on top of us with a cat 5 or a hurricane with a big enough wind field. That makes Kountze look reeeeealy nice!


Wow! Thanks for letting me in on that info. I really need to go check out that new slosh map. Glad your family was high and dry.
Quoting centex:
Blog warning. Yesterday a so called troll predicted named storm in GOM this weekend. Everyone jumped on him for being a troll and making outrageous claims without any supporting data. Fact, he did present some data and reasoning, while limited it was not off the wall. Shame on you guys/gals for jumping on each trop forecast which does not match NHC at point in time. There must have been over 20 post critical of post and calling names. I think it was more reasonable than most post on this blog. Who is being professional? There is an arrogance to accept only NHC similar caster and trash everyone else, I guess everyone must put percent chance in claims. I guess this one was suggesting greater than 50, NHC now saying less than 30, so we better label them a troll. Sorry for long essay but blog and regulars have a problem too.


was his name Stormt?
Seawall,

Are you in that "rain shadow" like thing that keeps some from getting KFDM?
Quoting JLPR:


thank you =]

PR is very lucky, for being an island(well actually various islands) in the middle of the ocean it hasn't been visited by hurricanes for awhile
I remember George so well, my "tormenteras" almost broke and noise was unbearable, sounded like a train. The eye went also on top of us, we went out to get the avocados from our fallen tree, Jeane was almost a hurricane i felt her eye was broad, calm for about half our, for me it was a category 1 but it wasn't classify as such until it came out by the cooast of Aguadilla in the Mona canal.
1535. centex
Quoting ElConando:


was his name Stormt?
Not the point.
Quoting hydrus:
lol..wheres Carolina? north..south..east..west..
Metropolitan area about 10 minutes from S.Juan, north east
1537. hydrus
Quoting centex:
Blog warning. Yesterday a so called troll predicted named storm in GOM this weekend. Everyone jumped on him for being a troll and making outrageous claims without any supporting data. Fact, he did present some data and reasoning, while limited it was not off the wall. Shame on you guys/gals for jumping on each trop forecast which does not match NHC at point in time. There must have been over 20 post critical of post and calling names. I think it was more reasonable than most post on this blog. Who is being professional? There is an arrogance to accept only NHC similar caster and trash everyone else, I guess everyone must put percent chance in claims. I guess this one was suggesting greater than 50, NHC now saying less than 30, so we better label them a troll. Sorry for long essay but blog and regulars have a problem too.
Centex-Even a troll with some weather knowledge can estimate with some accuracy what might happen this time of year in the warm G.O.M. And remember, not all the people here are responsible for ferreting out trolls..maybe we should establish a troll court to actually prove who a troll and who is exempt.
GO centex.....anybody here remember Eduaoard? Short sighted Hypercasters missed it....I'm watching GOMEX...fixed my generator tonite....no power SUCKS
1539. JLPR
Quoting jurakantaino:
Metropolitan area about 10 minutes from S.Juan, north east


yep exactly =D
1540. hydrus
Quoting jurakantaino:
Metropolitan area about 10 minutes from S.Juan, north east
Yes, I know this SanJuan you Speak of. Gracias.
I totally agree with CENTEX but that happens alot in here, and alot of us, like myself, are just trying to be informed so that we can keep our families out of the way of a major storm and facts are, you never know what may happen.
1542. JLPR
Quoting jurakantaino:
I remember George so well, my "tormenteras" almost broke and noise was unbearable, sounded like a train. The eye went also on top of us, we went out to get the avocados from our fallen tree, Jeane was almost a hurricane i felt her eyes was broad, calm for about half our, for me it was a category 1 but it wasn't classify at such until it came out by the cooast of Aguadilla in the Mona canal.


yep definitely felt stronger than a TS
1543. hydrus
Quoting RitaRefugee:
GO centex.....anybody here remember Eduaoard? Short sighted Hypercasters missed it....I'm watching GOMEX...fixed my generator tonite....no power SUCKS
Heard that like a giant ear hole man, did 17 days with out the juice.
Edouard....TD to Hurricane in 12 hours...dont mess with GOMEX
1545. 7544
hi all looks like fred does not want to move or give up just yet looks like hes getting bigger ???? could be good at dmax tonight
"PR is very lucky, for being an island(well actually various islands) in the middle of the ocean it hasn't been visited by hurricanes for awhile"
How old are u JLPR? Its true the 2000's has been a calm decade for PR but the 90's ufffs they were really busy years.
1547. centex
Quoting hydrus:
Centex-Even a troll with some weather knowledge can estimate with some accuracy what might happen this time of year in the warm G.O.M. And remember, not all the people here are responsible for ferreting out trolls..maybe we should establish a troll court to actually prove who a troll and who is exempt.
Point is reasonable predictions are not accepted. It had some model support and could happen. We should not humiliate anyone who says that is there prediction. Could be you next time. If you disagree just post why, all this troll cramp is real small.
Centex,

I have felt far more comfortable blogging tonight with the skeleton crew that is here, than usual. Sometimes people are mean on this blog and that just isn't okay. Most of the people in my happy little world are nice and I like to keep it that way.

There is one young man who is sometimes on here, who is accused of being a troll, but I think he is just really enthusiastic and lacks "raising." Being unkind is not the way to show anyway how to act. Sorry to be so preachy, but I am a teacher so it comes naturally (lol) and my students are sweet even though they are in 6th grade.
Quoting JLPR:


yep definitely felt stronger than a TS


Very impressive pic, thank you
Quoting centex:
Not the point.


There is a point sir. Stormt and his previous incarnations are not forecasters. Unless you are talking about someone else stormt is a doom caster. He hypes up many a storm and 9 times out of 10 nothing happens. He called Danny to become a cat 2. This season. I respect those who don't call for a hurricane when nothing is there yet.
1551. JLPR
Quoting GustyinPR:
"PR is very lucky, for being an island(well actually various islands) in the middle of the ocean it hasn't been visited by hurricanes for awhile"
How old are u JLPR? Its true the 2000's has been a calm decade for PR but the 90's ufffs they were really busy years.


18
and yep the 90s were much more active with quite a few close calls for PR
but so far the 2000s have been relatively calm
1552. hydrus
Quoting RitaRefugee:
yeah, well i evacuated for Rita, Ike, and Gustav...never again...screw it...my house was ok, i have a well, and I have gas and food....more than a cat 3, i'll go to Alex, but Im home the day after
I almost see some hostility in that post. But I can understand you, point well taken.
Georges @ Puerto Rico 1998

Lost my whole damn house with Rita...scared for Ed.....sprang up awfully fast with a HOT Gomex....just wanted to say...SWLA...read AUDREY

1555. SykKid
Fred is dying and there isnt anything else out there worth talking about. This is the peak of Hurricane season,seriously?

Bring on 2010
Im 26 so Marylin, Luis, Bertha, Hortence, Georges even stupid lefty Lenny come to my mind
1557. Seawall
Quoting TexNowNM:
Seawall,

Are you in that "rain shadow" like thing that keeps some from getting KFDM?
Yes, I am, and can't get local channels from Dish because we are so rural.
1558. centex
Quoting ElConando:


There is a point sir. Stormt and his previous incarnations are not forecasters. Unless you are talking about someone else stormt is a doom caster. He hypes up many a storm and 9 times out of 10 nothing happens. He called Danny to become a cat 2. This season. I respect those who don't call for a hurricane when nothing is there yet.
Don't care who started it, blog discounted tropical event and that was wrong period. Anyone who tried to add reason was accused of being troll. This needs to change.
Quoting hydrus:
maybe we should establish a troll court to actually prove who a troll and who is exempt.


Best thing ive heard in a while. You made my day, thanks :)
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/wna_10m_gfs_00z.htm#

Check this out. Very interesting.Gfs jumps a low from south of Corpus to east of Houston in 6 Hrs. time. Then senda another low up the coast on the 13th. Any thoughts ?


I haven't seen that yet. Just got done paying bills. But they've been sending one after another. A friend told me they had mentioned multiple vortex. Looks crazy doesn't it.
the man who founded the weather channel has passed away. he was 82 and sunny.
-conan o'brien
1562. JLPR
Quoting GustyinPR:
Im 26 so Marylin, Luis, Bertha, Hortence, Georges even stupid lefty Lenny come to my mind


yep lived through all of those but I don't remember them very clearly
1563. msphar
Fred's is being shredded tonight. How cool is that ?
Link

CMC takes the former "nekked" swirl now vc of the Bahamas and develops it into an extratropical "monster" by Monday...
1565. hydrus
Quoting JLPR:


18
and yep the 90s were much more active with quite a few close calls for PR
but so far the 2000s have been relatively calm
I am sure you know about monsters that practically ripped Puerto Rico apart. I saw photos about the 1928 hurricane of incredible wind damage.Including an 11 foot pine board slammed through a sable palm 35 feet in the air.
Quoting GustyinPR:
Im 26 so Marylin, Luis, Bertha, Hortence, Georges even stupid lefty Lenny come to my mind


you have a problem with left-handed folks?

Quoting hydrus:
I almost see some hostility in that post. But I can understand you, point well taken.


Not hostile...live for 104 days, 15 hours 46 minutes and 12 seconds with YOUR inlaws...FEMA trailer for 18 months.....I AM NOT LEAVING MY HOME FOR ANYTHING LESS THAN A CAT 3....pooyaih...ask PATRAP what POOYAIH means.
Quoting hydrus:
I am sure you know about monsters that practically ripped Puerto Rico apart. I saw photos about the 1928 hurricane of incredible wind damage.Including an 11 foot pine board slammed through a sable palm 35 feet in the air.


sounds like photoshop to me

lolol
Quoting msphar:
Fred's is being shredded tonight. How cool is that ?


not cool if youre a surfer
Quoting RitaRefugee:
Lost my whole damn house with Rita...scared for Ed.....sprang up awfully fast with a HOT Gomex....just wanted to say...SWLA...read AUDREY



I just finished Cathy Post's book on Audrey. She isn't the greatest writer in the world but the book is just chilling. I remember my mom talking about Audrey when I was a child; it made such an impression on her.

Cameron parish is still hurting from Rita. I cried many tears driving down that beach highway when we went back after Rita. Holly Beach was indescribable. Then to go back after Ike and realize a lot of the parish's damage is from Rita because folks still couldn't rebuild!

I recommend the movie, "A Cajun Story" to what that part of the country looked like before Rita. I look at our own before and after pictures from Cow Bayou and I can't believe the destruction.
1571. hydrus
Quoting serialteg:


sounds like photoshop to me

lolol
I think class was canceled the day that went down.
Quoting serialteg:
Georges @ Puerto Rico 1998

Amazing thank you for the memories I love my Island so much that I get emotional when I remember the devastation we suffer from George(San Mateo) in the tradional name calling by the elderlies islanders.
Quoting RitaRefugee:


Not hostile...live for 104 days, 15 hours 46 minutes and 12 seconds with YOUR inlaws...FEMA trailer for 18 months.....I AM NOT LEAVING MY HOME FOR ANYTHING LESS THAN A CAT 3....pooyaih...ask PATRAP what POOYAIH means.


Now ya talkin'!
Quoting Progster:
Link

CMC takes the former "nekked" swirl now vc of the Bahamas and develops it into an extratropical "monster" by Monday...


Nice
Quoting TexNowNM:


I just finished Cathy Post's book on Audrey. She isn't the greatest writer in the world but the book is just chilling. I remember my mom talking about Audrey when I was a child; it made such an impression on her.

Cameron parish is still hurting from Rita. I cried many tears driving down that beach highway when we went back after Rita. Holly Beach was indescribable. Then to go back after Ike and realize a lot of the parish's damage is from Rita because folks still couldn't rebuild!

I recommend the movie, "A Cajun Story" to what that part of the country looked like before Rita. I look at our own before and after pictures from Cow Bayou and I can't believe the destruction.
1576. JLPR
Quoting hydrus:
I am sure you know about monsters that practically ripped Puerto Rico apart. I saw photos about the 1928 hurricane of incredible wind damage.Including an 11 foot pine board slammed through a sable palm 35 feet in the air.


yes
my grandma lived through that one
and it was the biggest and worst one ever for PR since then

Also that one was called San Felipe II or for our American folks, the Okeechobee hurricane
1577. hydrus
Quoting TexNowNM:


I just finished Cathy Post's book on Audrey. She isn't the greatest writer in the world but the book is just chilling. I remember my mom talking about Audrey when I was a child; it made such an impression on her.

Cameron parish is still hurting from Rita. I cried many tears driving down that beach highway when we went back after Rita. Holly Beach was indescribable. Then to go back after Ike and realize a lot of the parish's damage is from Rita because folks still couldn't rebuild!

I recommend the movie, "A Cajun Story" to what that part of the country looked like before Rita. I look at our own before and after pictures from Cow Bayou and I can't believe the destruction.
I am sorry, I hope you and yours pulled through alright.
Quoting hydrus:
I think class was canceled the day that went down.


yea back then photoshop was in its "crayons, elmers glue and scissors" phase
oops...sorry...good movie, except they portray Canjuns as retarded idiots...other than that...decent movie.
"you have a problem with left-handed folks?"
Jaja NOOOO not at all the stupid part is because it came so late it almost ruined Thanksgiving for us and the lefty well because he was lefty comming from west to east
Thanks, Hydrus, our immediate family was okay. We were very blessed.
Quoting jurakantaino:
Amazing thank you for the memories I love my Island so much that I get emotional when I remember the devastation we suffer from George(San Mateo) in the tradional name calling by the elderlies islanders.


IMO those traditional names are much better than the Gringo ones. Even with the San (Saint) pre-fix (how ironic to name a hurricane as Saint " " but thats how we did it for a long time)
Quoting hydrus:
I am sure you know about monsters that practically ripped Puerto Rico apart. I saw photos about the 1928 hurricane of incredible wind damage.Including an 11 foot pine board slammed through a sable palm 35 feet in the air.
Yes category five San Felipe, my grandmother told about her experiences, San CIprian in 1932 was weird since by coinsidence we had an earthquake during the hurricane.
Cajuns not canjuns...damn whiskey
1585. hydrus
Quoting JLPR:


yes
my grandma lived through that one
and it was the biggest and worst one ever for PR since then
I have one you should check out. Google the Great Hurricane of 1780. They have some solid evidence that the storm had winds well over 200 mph on some islands. Over 9000 died on Martinique alone. it was phenomenal.
Quoting GustyinPR:
"you have a problem with left-handed folks?"
Jaja NOOOO not at all the stupid part is because it came so late it almost ruined Thanksgiving for us and the lefty well because he was lefty comming from west to east


Oh Lenny...

Now I remember

One man's garbage is another man's treasure... Lenny left the south coast of PR one of the best swells it has seen in decades. It definetly was one of the most memorable swells of my life. We really hardly ever see a long period offshore SSW swell - a true freak scenario, but that was Lenny for us.
Quoting hydrus:
I have one you should check out. Google the Great Hurricane of 1780. They have some solid evidence that the storm had winds well over 200 mph on some islands. Over 9000 died on Martinique alone. it was phenomenal.


What were 9000 people doing in Martinique in the year 1780?

Does that number include livestock and monkeys?
earthquake during a hurricane, sound like fun...
RitaRefugee,

Okay, there is no storm imminent (as in tonight), and the SE Texas SW La crew is on, so I will digress a little.

I took away from that movie what I saw among my cajun relatives - a fierce love of, and devotion to, family and friends. I have a handicapped sister, so that part touched me very deeply.

I do see your point, though. :)
Quoting centex:
Blog warning. Yesterday a so called troll predicted named storm in GOM this weekend. Everyone jumped on him for being a troll and making outrageous claims without any supporting data. Fact, he did present some data and reasoning, while limited it was not off the wall. Shame on you guys/gals for jumping on each trop forecast which does not match NHC at point in time. There must have been over 20 post critical of post and calling names. I think it was more reasonable than most post on this blog. Who is being professional? There is an arrogance to accept only NHC similar caster and trash everyone else, I guess everyone must put percent chance in claims. I guess this one was suggesting greater than 50, NHC now saying less than 30, so we better label them a troll. Sorry for long essay but blog and regulars have a problem too.

Actually, its not the forecast itself that everyone jumped on. It was the presentation. If you look back, both StormW and Weather456 have said the area needs to be watched based on model indications.

When someone who has a history of overhyping stuff, and acting like they are an official forecaster makes a doom and gloom forecast that has more hype than forecast information (ie: predicting landfall and strength of something that hasn't formed yet)... they are going to get blasted.

Also, keep in mind the adage: "If you throw enough crap on the wall, eventually some of it will stick".
Trolls are people who have never lost all your kid's toys and stuff to a bitch like Rita...Trolls are people who think they want a hurricane to hit their town so they can say, "I was in so and so". Trolls SUCK. Live thru it and then we'll see how you sound.
Quoting serialteg:


IMO those traditional names are much better than the Gringo ones. Even with the San (Saint) pre-fix (how ironic to name a hurricane as Saint " " but thats how we did it for a long time)
I Know but our ancestors were wise enough to find a way to name those storms following the catholic monthly calendar even when develop societies like the United states referred to them as the great storm of such and such year.
Quoting centex:
Don't care who started it, blog discounted tropical event and that was wrong period. Anyone who tried to add reason was accused of being troll. This needs to change.

What do you propose as a solution, then?
1594. centex
Quoting jeffs713:

Actually, its not the forecast itself that everyone jumped on. It was the presentation. If you look back, both StormW and Weather456 have said the area needs to be watched based on model indications.

When someone who has a history of overhyping stuff, and acting like they are an official forecaster makes a doom and gloom forecast that has more hype than forecast information (ie: predicting landfall and strength of something that hasn't formed yet)... they are going to get blasted.

Also, keep in mind the adage: "If you throw enough crap on the wall, eventually some of it will stick".
He didn't predict cat 5 just a TS. My point is reaction was the over hype.
1595. hydrus
Quoting jurakantaino:
Yes category five San Felipe, my grandmother told about her experiences, San CIprian in 1932 was weird since by coinsidence we had an earthquake during the hurricane.
An earthquake during a hurricane...That reminds me of the Philippines in 1991, Pinatubo was erupting and than a typhoon strikes. The scene was horrendous!
And if you guys are talking about stormno, aka stormtop and whatever other nicks he has, he actually has been pretty accurate this season so i pay attention to what he says... even if he is a kind of weird fellow
Quoting TexNowNM:


I just finished Cathy Post's book on Audrey. She isn't the greatest writer in the world but the book is just chilling. I remember my mom talking about Audrey when I was a child; it made such an impression on her.

Cameron parish is still hurting from Rita. I cried many tears driving down that beach highway when we went back after Rita. Holly Beach was indescribable. Then to go back after Ike and realize a lot of the parish's damage is from Rita because folks still couldn't rebuild!

I recommend the movie, "A Cajun Story" to what that part of the country looked like before Rita. I look at our own before and after pictures from Cow Bayou and I can't believe the destruction.

Beaumont and east Tex the same way.Blue roofs still there when Ike came along.Now no roof for tarp. The wind destruction in east Tex from Rita was incredible. Then comes Ike with the water. Wasn't important to anyone except those who suffered. Wasn't a major city like N.O.
Quoting RitaRefugee:
Lost my whole damn house with Rita...scared for Ed.....sprang up awfully fast with a HOT Gomex....just wanted to say...SWLA...read AUDREY



Seems Rita inspired more than one WU handle. Lol. I got the stats somewhere. Rita and Audrey were almost identical in path and damage etc. However, comparing the winds speeds pressure readings, surge...Rita either was exactly the same or worse than Audrey. That is before the equipment failed during Rita. Thats kinda weird since Audrey was a 4 and Rita was a 3. I don't think, unless you saw it, you really understand how bad Rita was. Hopefully never again.
Quoting jeffs713:

Actually, its not the forecast itself that everyone jumped on. It was the presentation. If you look back, both StormW and Weather456 have said the area needs to be watched based on model indications.

When someone who has a history of overhyping stuff, and acting like they are an official forecaster makes a doom and gloom forecast that has more hype than forecast information (ie: predicting landfall and strength of something that hasn't formed yet)... they are going to get blasted.

Also, keep in mind the adage: "If you throw enough crap on the wall, eventually some of it will stick".


I remember stormtop had the Land Fall of Katrina at 175 mph with the center going over passchristan when Katrina was still as TS in the Bahamas. point is he still didn't even get katrina right, it hit west of NOLA at 150mph.

Loop

Wow.
1601. hydrus
Quoting RitaRefugee:
Trolls are people who have never lost all your kid's toys and stuff to a bitch like Rita...Trolls are people who think they want a hurricane to hit their town so they can say, "I was in so and so". Trolls SUCK. Live thru it and then we'll see how you sound.
Nuthin like being honest and direct Refugee.
Quoting centex:
He didn't predict cat 5 just a TS. My point is reaction was the over hype.

As others have mentioned, he also called Danny to be a cat 2, said Erika would never get named, never said anything about Claudette, and also said that Ana would be an East Coast threat.
Quoting hydrus:
I have one you should check out. Google the Great Hurricane of 1780. They have some solid evidence that the storm had winds well over 200 mph on some islands. Over 9000 died on Martinique alone. it was phenomenal.
In San Juan P.R. the "anenometro" broke when it register wind of 200 mph, is in the weather records of the island.
Quoting jurakantaino:
I Know but our ancestors were wise enough to find a way to name those storms following the catholic monthly calendar even when develop societies like the United states referred to them as the great storm of such and such year.


Check out the 1950 Season names for the NHC:

# 1 Storms

* 1.1 Hurricane Able
* 1.2 Hurricane Baker
* 1.3 Hurricane Charlie
* 1.4 Hurricane Dog
* 1.5 Hurricane Easy
* 1.6 Hurricane Fox
* 1.7 Hurricane George
* 1.8 Tropical Storm How
* 1.9 Hurricane Item
* 1.10 Hurricane Jig
* 1.11 Hurricane King
* 1.12 Tropical Storm Twelve
* 1.13 Hurricane Love
* 1.14 Cyclone Mike



Quoting jeffs713:

As others have mentioned, he also called Danny to be a cat 2, said Erika would never get named, never said anything about Claudette, and also said that Ana would be an East Coast threat.


wrong about claudette... now i know we're talking about stormno hehe

actually he was the "outlier" talking constantly about the gom while most of us (anyway) were watching the atlantic
Quoting serialteg:


Check out the 1950 Season names for the NHC:

# 1 Storms

* 1.1 Hurricane Able
* 1.2 Hurricane Baker
* 1.3 Hurricane Charlie
* 1.4 Hurricane Dog
* 1.5 Hurricane Easy
* 1.6 Hurricane Fox
* 1.7 Hurricane George
* 1.8 Tropical Storm How
* 1.9 Hurricane Item
* 1.10 Hurricane Jig
* 1.11 Hurricane King
* 1.12 Tropical Storm Twelve
* 1.13 Hurricane Love
* 1.14 Cyclone Mike




Heh, Hurricane Love. That is a storm on the same level as Hurricane Fifi.
I'm gonna change my name from RitaRefugee to RitaRefugeeTroll.....
Quoting F4PHANTOM:

Beaumont and east Tex the same way.Blue roofs still there when Ike came along.Now no roof for tarp. The wind destruction in east Tex from Rita was incredible. Then comes Ike with the water. Wasn't important to anyone except those who suffered. Wasn't a major city like N.O.


Yeah. It was pretty incredible. Both in their own way. But yep, all the roofs here are either new or blue, :)
1609. JLPR
Quoting serialteg:


Check out the 1950 Season names for the NHC:

# 1 Storms

* 1.1 Hurricane Able
* 1.2 Hurricane Baker
* 1.3 Hurricane Charlie
* 1.4 Hurricane Dog
* 1.5 Hurricane Easy
* 1.6 Hurricane Fox
* 1.7 Hurricane George
* 1.8 Tropical Storm How
* 1.9 Hurricane Item
* 1.10 Hurricane Jig
* 1.11 Hurricane King
* 1.12 Tropical Storm Twelve
* 1.13 Hurricane Love
* 1.14 Cyclone Mike





How and Item must have been interesting storms =P
I know before there was talk of ants and stuff in relation to storms. This is gross, but what about roaches? We have not had a problem in a while and for some reason I have killed 3 today in my house.....what is up with that?.....
Quoting RitaRefugee:
Trolls are people who have never lost all your kid's toys and stuff to a bitch like Rita...Trolls are people who think they want a hurricane to hit their town so they can say, "I was in so and so". Trolls SUCK. Live thru it and then we'll see how you sound.

Amen. Been going thru Hurricanes for over 50 years.The worst was in Viet Nam '68.No place to hide and no way to get away from the water.
Quoting centex:
He didn't predict cat 5 just a TS. My point is reaction was the over hype.


as I see it, the problem with "trolls" is that there are people on here who actually take every word they say seriously, which is not a good thing in my opinion.
Tnx hydrus
1614. hydrus
Quoting serialteg:


yea back then photoshop was in its "crayons, elmers glue and scissors" phase
Dont forget the hammers,nails and body bags.
Quoting serialteg:
And if you guys are talking about stormno, aka stormtop and whatever other nicks he has, he actually has been pretty accurate this season so i pay attention to what he says... even if he is a kind of weird fellow


I don't know exactly what a troll is , but I am so sick of hearing about TROLLS. No one on this blog is any better than the other. I believe if you have knowledge or even a thought it should be put on this blog and it just may help save a life.
TROLL ALERT....we watch the crickets....
Quoting TexasHurricane:
I know before there was talk of ants and stuff in relation to storms. This is gross, but what about roaches? We have not had a problem in a while and for some reason I have killed 3 today in my house.....what is up with that?.....


its called pest control and you can buy it here
1618. hydrus
Quoting Chicklit:

Loop

Wow.
Yeah, looks a little crowded out there.
Quoting serialteg:


its called pest control and you can buy it here


yeah, I knew someone would make a joke of it....that is ok, nevermind.
The Gulf is very active at the moment isn't it.
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SECOND SURFACE IS OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N87W NE ALONG 26N83W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR NAPLES INTO THE W ATLC NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND THE N PORTION OF MEXICO INDUCING A SHARP UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE MEXICO/TEXAS COAST WITH A SECOND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS S TO OVER NE FLORIDA. THIS IS CREATING A VERY DIFFLUENT ALOFT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF AND COUPLED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS ENHANCING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N WHERE ONLY HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE FOUND.
our local Homeland Security Dude...REALLY...sends Cricket Alerts...to the other agencies..worked for RITA..aminals have a sixth sense..yeah, i know i speled it rong.
1622. centex
Quoting jeffs713:

As others have mentioned, he also called Danny to be a cat 2, said Erika would never get named, never said anything about Claudette, and also said that Ana would be an East Coast threat.
Ok, the poster was the whole story. To me it was more than that because I wanted serious discusion about that possible event. I was laughed at because I thought NHC should put AOI in that area. I was told why would they put one where something is not there now? It was troll work to even talk about GOM.
Quoting serialteg:


Check out the 1950 Season names for the NHC:

# 1 Storms

* 1.1 Hurricane Able
* 1.2 Hurricane Baker
* 1.3 Hurricane Charlie
* 1.4 Hurricane Dog
* 1.5 Hurricane Easy
* 1.6 Hurricane Fox
* 1.7 Hurricane George
* 1.8 Tropical Storm How
* 1.9 Hurricane Item
* 1.10 Hurricane Jig
* 1.11 Hurricane King
* 1.12 Tropical Storm Twelve
* 1.13 Hurricane Love
* 1.14 Cyclone Mike



Ha,;ha,ha, now that's funny didn't realized that. Do you know that the first storm that was called in P.R. by the NHC or the weather Beaurow , was Betsy (santa Clara)August 12,1956, and it brang confussion since the people didn't want to call it that way. Is in the News of that year,"periodico EL MUNDO".

Caribbean
and
Central Atlantic
Fred
Quoting TexasHurricane:
I know before there was talk of ants and stuff in relation to storms. This is gross, but what about roaches? We have not had a problem in a while and for some reason I have killed 3 today in my house.....what is up with that?.....
An Storm approaching within a week, from my grandma weather predictions,,,!
1626. hydrus
Quoting JLPR:


How and Item must have been interesting storms =P
My mom and Grandma went through King in Miami Bch. they also remember easy, it was really bad. The old timers of the day said it was the worst storm in 70 years in the Cedar Key area.
good nite all...will check GOMEX in the AM...hopefully all is calm
1628. JLPR
Quoting hydrus:
My mom and Grandma went through King in Miami Bch. they also remember easy, it was really bad. The old timers of the day said it was the worst storm in 70 years in the Cedar Key area.


the names didn't suit the storms xD
Quoting Chicklit:

Caribbean
and
Central Atlantic
Fred
Fred might be weakening, but obviously getting fatter and bigger in diameter.
Quoting jurakantaino:
An Storm approaching within a week, from my grandma weather predictions,,,!


hmmm, just seems odd. I haven't seen one in our house in a while and then all of a sudden 3 in 1 day.just curious if there may be something to that.
Quoting centex:
Ok, the poster was the whole story. To me it was more than that because I wanted serious discusion about that possible event. I was laughed at because I thought NHC should put AOI in that area. I was told why would they put one where something is not there now? It was troll work to even talk about GOM.

I actually asked about an AOI on StormW's blog, and his (IMO, correct) answer is that there was nothing there to tag yet. Tagging an AOI because a model or two suggest possible development is a bad practice. Remember, until yesterday, only the NAM model had anything even kinda tropical developing, and the NAM is typically horrible with cyclogenesis.

I apologize if you got blasted by anyone on the blog, though. I will be the first (actually, one of the first thousand...) to say that this blog can be extremely - and unnecessarily - brutal to people during peak season or regarding close-to-home situations. People get their emotions invested too much. That is why unless I have something to add, or its quieter (like the late evenings), I lurk more than I post. If I need to ask a question, I ask it in PM to someone who is more knowledgeable than I am. I like to think I've kept up a fairly knowledgeable rep, and avoided the dreaded "troll" tag because of that.

The whole "troll" tag gets tossed around a bit much now, and many people are using it to signify anyone they disagree with. A troll is someone who posts something, knowing good and well that it is factually incorrect, just for the reason to get a reaction out of someone. Lately, they have been succeeding quite often.
1633. hydrus
Quoting Chicklit:
The Gulf is very active at the moment isn't it.
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SECOND SURFACE IS OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N87W NE ALONG 26N83W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR NAPLES INTO THE W ATLC NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND THE N PORTION OF MEXICO INDUCING A SHARP UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE MEXICO/TEXAS COAST WITH A SECOND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS S TO OVER NE FLORIDA. THIS IS CREATING A VERY DIFFLUENT ALOFT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF AND COUPLED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS ENHANCING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N WHERE ONLY HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE FOUND.
I believe that it is going to be a little more active in the next month than previously thought. I am in no way wishcasting, just a Florida cracker hunch.
Quoting TexasHurricane:


hmmm, just seems odd. I haven't seen one in our house in a while and then all of a sudden 3 in 1 day.just curious if there may be something to that.

The rain may be doing it, too. Well, not just the rain, but the continued humidity. We haven't had this kind of humidity for 2-3 days since April/May.
Look Lake Charles finally noticed something in the gulf.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1015 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

UPDATE...TWEAKED POPS UP FOR INTERIOR ZONES UP TO 30 PERCENT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND MAINTAINED THE HIGHER COVERAGE
FOR THE I-10 AND COASTAL ZONES. ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR INTERIOR
AREAS. REMARKABLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIP WATER OVER 2.3
INCHES ENDS UP CLOSE TO FCST VALUES. WEAK INVERTED TROF OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

NAM SOLUTION STILL LOOKS TO AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING A WEAK TROPICAL
LOW OFF THE COAST. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE STILL PREFER THE GFS
WHICH LIFTS THE LOW INTO EAST TEXAS ON SATURDAY. THIS IS BACKED BY
THE EUROPEAN MODEL. THAT SAID WE STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE WET SIDE
INTO MONDAY. THE MIDS CREW WILL HAVE SOME FRESHER MODELS TO
COMPARE.

I just looked at gfs. Couldn't exactly figure out what they were showing. What do they mean lift it into east TX? From the gulf? UGH! These people are always more confusing than everyone else! Sorry minor meltdown. :)
Quoting hydrus:
I believe that it is going to be a little more active in the next month than previously thought. I am in no way wishcasting, just a Florida cracker hunch.

The water is hot.
1637. Gumluvr
Quoting TexasHurricane:
I know before there was talk of ants and stuff in relation to storms. This is gross, but what about roaches? We have not had a problem in a while and for some reason I have killed 3 today in my house.....what is up with that?.....


I am behind on the blog. My husband keeps talking to me. I have had to spray for ants today. I noticed some in the kitchen and in my son's room. We haven't had but maybe an inch or two pf rain since yesterday. Makes you go hmmmm. :(
Quoting TexasHurricane:


hmmm, just seems odd. I haven't seen one in our house in a while and then all of a sudden 3 in 1 day.just curious if there may be something to that.
Cocoaroaches has been in our planet before the dinosaurs and they have manage to survive, they know when something is in harms way, believe me.
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Look Lake Charles finally noticed something in the gulf.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1015 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

UPDATE...TWEAKED POPS UP FOR INTERIOR ZONES UP TO 30 PERCENT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND MAINTAINED THE HIGHER COVERAGE
FOR THE I-10 AND COASTAL ZONES. ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR INTERIOR
AREAS. REMARKABLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIP WATER OVER 2.3
INCHES ENDS UP CLOSE TO FCST VALUES. WEAK INVERTED TROF OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

NAM SOLUTION STILL LOOKS TO AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING A WEAK TROPICAL
LOW OFF THE COAST. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE STILL PREFER THE GFS
WHICH LIFTS THE LOW INTO EAST TEXAS ON SATURDAY. THIS IS BACKED BY
THE EUROPEAN MODEL. THAT SAID WE STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE WET SIDE
INTO MONDAY. THE MIDS CREW WILL HAVE SOME FRESHER MODELS TO
COMPARE.

I just looked at gfs. Couldn't exactly figure out what they were showing. What do they mean lift it into east TX? From the gulf? UGH! These people are always more confusing than everyone else! Sorry minor meltdown. :)


LOL....I think thet just mean it will be lifted north into SE TX. Just my thought... :)
1640. hydrus
Quoting JLPR:


the names didn't suit the storms xD
Not in the least,and I still cant believe they named a hurricane (FiFi)..that killed thousands in 1974 in Guatemala and Nicaragua. I think of that stupid name and I want to vomit.
well, im off to bed, I have an 8:30 class tomorrow :/ I'll be on after that, so have a goodnight everyone, and please try not to fight too much, there has been way too much drama on this blog for one day, probably enough to last a couple of seasons, alright, goodnight!
-Matt
Quoting Gumluvr:


I am behind on the blog. My husband keeps talking to me. I have had to spray for ants today. I noticed some in the kitchen and in my son's room. We haven't had but maybe an inch or two pf rain since yesterday. Makes you go hmmmm. :(


I'm still catching up too. But the day we left for Gustav we had to kill a bunch of ants in the kitchen before we left. BUT Gustav missed. But a week later Ike didn't. Lol. Sorry I'm still no help at all.
F4Phantom,

We have some old, old, family land on Cow Bayou in Orange county. It is on the only part of the bayou that was never dredged - which is a pretty unusual thing for that county. No logging for years and years. It was just beautiful with some swampy areas and some hardwood. We had been working hard for years to restore it to a pre-tallow tree state as only you from that part of the country can understand. Native trees were coming back that had been in decline. There were deer, bobcats, even at least one wolf. My old grandfather who was born near the turn of the last century saw and heard him, and he remembered wolves from his youth. What Rita did to that little wood is just unbelievable.

My best girlfriend had several giant oaks in her house. It is a fearsome thing what a hurricane can do.

I know you folks from PR understand what I mean, too!
Quoting TexasHurricane:


LOL....I think thet just mean it will be lifted north into SE TX. Just my thought... :)


Well thank you. I think just like to drive me insane. :)
1645. hydrus
Quoting Chicklit:

The water is hot.
Yeah, tell me about it. I went down to the Fort Myers Beach pier and poached a couple of eggs..lol.....just foolin about;)
FiFi was a stupid name. I like the Saint's day names.
1647. centex
Quoting jeffs713:

I actually asked about an AOI on StormW's blog, and his (IMO, correct) answer is that there was nothing there to tag yet. Tagging an AOI because a model or two suggest possible development is a bad practice. Remember, until yesterday, only the NAM model had anything even kinda tropical developing, and the NAM is typically horrible with cyclogenesis.

I apologize if you got blasted by anyone on the blog, though. I will be the first (actually, one of the first thousand...) to say that this blog can be extremely - and unnecessarily - brutal to people during peak season or regarding close-to-home situations. People get their emotions invested too much. That is why unless I have something to add, or its quieter (like the late evenings), I lurk more than I post. If I need to ask a question, I ask it in PM to someone who is more knowledgeable than I am. I like to think I've kept up a fairly knowledgeable rep, and avoided the dreaded "troll" tag because of that.

The whole "troll" tag gets tossed around a bit much now, and many people are using it to signify anyone they disagree with. A troll is someone who posts something, knowing good and well that it is factually incorrect, just for the reason to get a reaction out of someone. Lately, they have been succeeding quite often.
thanks, That is something I can agree with. If someone post something a little over the top but possible we should either ignore or post data that contradicts. Force them to post supporting data. From what I can tell many people who post on this blog don’t even bother to read JM daily blog they are posting comments to. I would call all of them trolls, not the people who follow tropics and post predictions based on experience and pick up on some of the possibilities he suggest.
32 days without electricity thanks to Rita ... totally destroyed our oaks and pines.
1649. hydrus
Quoting TexNowNM:
FiFi was a stupid name. I like the Saint's day names.
Man, I,ll take almost anything over the name Fifi, Even Egbert! lol.
1650. Gumluvr
Quoting TexNowNM:
F4Phantom,

We have some old, old, family land on Cow Bayou in Orange county. It is on the only part of the bayou that was never dredged - which is a pretty unusual thing for that county. No logging for years and years. It was just beautiful with some swampy areas and some hardwood. We had been working hard for years to restore it to a pre-tallow tree state as only you from that part of the country can understand. Native trees were coming back that had been in decline. There were deer, bobcats, even at least one wolf. My old grandfather who was born near the turn of the last century saw and heard him, and he remembered wolves from his youth. What Rita did to that little wood is just unbelievable.

My best girlfriend had several giant oaks in her house. It is a fearsome thing what a hurricane can do.

I know you folks from PR understand what I mean, too!


Really sad what Rita did to our area. Homeless, I remember having ants before Ike but not for Gustav. Never know, but the rain does bring them in. I will be back in about 30 minutes. Gotta spend some time with the hubby before he goes to bed. He thinks I love this blog more than him. LOL
1651. hydrus
Quoting CADZILLA:
32 days without electricity thanks to Rita ... totally destroyed our oaks and pines.
What were the peak gusts in your location ? if that data even exists...
Quoting Gumluvr:


Really sad what Rita did to our area. Homeless, I remember having ants before Ike but not for Gustav. Never know, but the rain does bring them in. I will be back in about 30 minutes. Gotta spend some time with the hubby before he goes to bed. He thinks I love this blog more than him. LOL


funny, my husband talks about how much I'm on the computer.... :)
Quoting Gumluvr:


Really sad what Rita did to our area. Homeless, I remember having ants before Ike but not for Gustav. Never know, but the rain does bring them in. I will be back in about 30 minutes. Gotta spend some time with the hubby before he goes to bed. He thinks I love this blog more than him. LOL


Lol. Mines the same way. May be off by time you get back. If so goodnight. :)
1654. hydrus
Jeffs713-I have to say to you, that comment about the crap sticking to the wall, fricken hilarious .
After Rita, we drove down to Mamma's over the Columbus Day break (NM schools are really different then Texas schools.) I remember walking out in the pastures around there and being attacked by fleas. Yes, fleas! It was just weird. There weren't any cows or horses back there, but where ever you walked, there were fleas. Also, all of the pear trees were blooming, and it was October. On the drive down we could see them in bloom, and sure enough, Mom's was blooming, too.

Maybe there is something to this insect thing.

I'm off to bed- Good night all.
Well since I can't find out what's going on now here's a look at then.

The past is sooo much easier to find out information about than the future. :)

Link

RITA/AUDREY
1657. centex
Rain chances up in Cental Texas. Spotty so far but next 24 hours looks good. Some areas of drought in E and S Texas have gotten beneficial rain and next few days looks good. The weather pattern has changed.
Quoting TexNowNM:
After Rita, we drove down to Mamma's over the Columbus Day break (NM schools are really different then Texas schools.) I remember walking out in the pastures around there and being attacked by fleas. Yes, fleas! It was just weird. There weren't any cows or horses back there, but where ever you walked, there were fleas. Also, all of the pear trees were blooming, and it was October. On the drive down we could see them in bloom, and sure enough, Mom's was blooming, too.

Maybe there is something to this insect thing.

I'm off to bed- Good night all.


Good night.
1659. hydrus
Quoting centex:
Rain chances up in Cental Texas. Spotty so far but next 24 hours looks good. Some areas of drought in E and S Texas have gotten beneficial rain and next few days looks good. The weather pattern has changed.
I really hope this one helps them out, it has been a long drought for those people.
Nite all....check back in tomorrow for the latest.
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Nite all....check back in tomorrow for the latest.


Night Tex. See ya tomorrow. :)
1662. centex
Quoting hydrus:
I really hope this one helps them out, it has been a long drought for those people.
Yea, they expect use to kill our lawns because the lakes have not stored enough water. People are losing grass, shrubs and some trees to drought. Not used to california type restrictions. Worse since 1950's around here. When you here about flooding in texas next few days, don't feel too bad it's how droughts end historically.
Quoting hydrus:
What were the peak gusts in your location ? if that data even exists...


I don't know where Cad is from but here's a sense of Ritas wind field. Although I am not too sure she didn't have hurricane winds farther. But heres what they say.

Quoting hydrus:
Jeffs713-I have to say to you, that comment about the crap sticking to the wall, fricken hilarious .

Its true!

And for a more PG version, you can also use gummi bears. Just get them wet, and throw them at a smooth wall. Some will stick, some won't. (most won't, and would therefore be wasted, which makes gummi bear addicts like me sad)
1665. 2ifbyC
Quoting TexNowNM:
There weren't any cows or horses back there, but where ever you walked, there were fleas.


It's tough being the only 'food source' in the neighborhood!
Ah memories. Looking at all that reminds me that I agree with Ritarefugee's assessment of that Storm. Lol. Well good night yall. I'll never make it to the ECMWF run. See yall tomorrow. :)
1667. hydrus
Quoting jeffs713:

Its true!

And for a more PG version, you can also use gummi bears. Just get them wet, and throw them at a smooth wall. Some will stick, some won't. (most won't, and would therefore be wasted, which makes gummi bear addicts like me sad)
I had gummies once, I did not like them, but I never really had a sweet tooth any way... I believe we will have some action in the gulf worthy of some kind of watches within the next 36 hours. I am not wishcasting.
1668. hydrus
Quoting jeffs713:

Its true!

And for a more PG version, you can also use gummi bears. Just get them wet, and throw them at a smooth wall. Some will stick, some won't. (most won't, and would therefore be wasted, which makes gummi bear addicts like me sad)
If you want to read something semi-funny, read post#1640.
1669. Gumluvr
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Ah memories. Looking at all that reminds me that I agree with Ritarefugee's assessment of that Storm. Lol. Well good night yall. I'll never make it to the ECMWF run. See yall tomorrow. :)


If your still here, then goodnight to you, Tex and TexNowNM. I might stay up a little while longer.
1670. centex
I've been given special wishcasting privileges because of drought. I've tried to use them wisely as not to waste. While I would like the GOM low to move inland and stall before moving NE, I'm not counting on that. Just abundance of tropical moisture with slow moving front and associated low is just fine. We take it any way we can get it.
I have tyo go in 30 min. and I have not visited in a while, but I did want to say that Fread in colliding iwht a whole lot of wind shear, and here is the link to it incase your interested:
Link

I think that thats why Fred is going to die really quicky. Your opinion counts...
1672. Gumluvr
Quoting hydrus:
I had gummies once, I did not like them, but I never really had a sweet tooth any way... I believe we will have some action in the gulf worthy of some kind of watches within the next 36 hours. I am not wishcasting.


Our local wx guy said the gulf will be open soon. He is talking about the high that we have had protecting us this season. I am not a wishcaster, either. Just have to wait and see.
Quoting hydrus:
If you want to read something semi-funny, read post#1640.


You kidding? Fifi? Thousands killed... that makes me almost vomit too. But even worse is that Japan will start naming Tropical Typhoons after pets, foods, and more "colorful names" Imagine "Hurricane Chowder" Or "Hurricane Shrimp"

Now thats stupid!
1674. hydrus
Quoting Gumluvr:


Our local wx guy said the gulf will be open soon. He is talking about the high that we have had protecting us this season. I am not a wishcaster, either. Just have to wait and see.
The MJO is returning, this is going to change a couple of things.
1675. hydrus
Quoting F5Tornado:


You kidding? Fifi? Thousands killed... that makes me almost vomit too. But even worse is that Japan will start naming Tropical Typhoons after pets, foods, and more "colorful names" Imagine "Hurricane Chowder" Or "Hurricane Shrimp"

Now thats stupid!
You think that is stupid, Google typhoon Longwang (this is not a joke) and return here and tell me if you laughed.
1676. JLPR
I cant believe Fred is still looking this good with all the shear

Eumetsat

since we are at Blackout :|
1677. hydrus
Quoting F5Tornado:
I have tyo go in 30 min. and I have not visited in a while, but I did want to say that Fread in colliding iwht a whole lot of wind shear, and here is the link to it incase your interested:
Link

I think that thats why Fred is going to die really quicky. Your opinion counts...
Fred will hang in there longer than anticipated and surprise us. just my harmless opinion.
1678. JLPR


although it looks more like a TS than a Hurricane
1679. hydrus
Quoting JLPR:
I cant believe Fred is still looking this good with all the shear

Eumetsat

since we are at Blackout :|
Did you read my post #1640?
1680. hydrus
Quoting JLPR:


although it looks more like a TS than a Hurricane
No question, Fred is taking a beating.
1681. Gumluvr
Quoting hydrus:
The MJO is returning, this is going to change a couple of things.


I am still learning. I remember Storm talking about this and believe your correct. Some of the models are showing several vortexes in the gulf. If the shear map that I am looking at is correct, then the gulf may have a few surprises in store. Just my(still trying to get my learner's weather permit)opinion. LOL
Quoting hydrus:
You think that is stupid, Google typhoon Longwang (this is not a joke) and return here and tell me if you laughed.


Typhoon Whaaaa? (That probably will be a name) " Major Typhoon Whaaaa kills thousands due to excess laughter because or the Nationwide Broadcast, the citizens only took action after the power to the T.V. was cut, however hundreds may have died BECAUSE of laughing. In other news....."
1684. hydrus
Quoting Gumluvr:


I am still learning. I remember Storm talking about this and believe your correct. Some of the models are showing several vortexes in the gulf. If the shear map that I am looking at is correct, then the gulf may have a few surprises in store. Just my(still trying to get my learner's weather permit)opinion. LOL
Real quickly, the MJO or the Madden-Julian Oscillation, is the upward or downward motion of the atmosphere. Up or lifting air promotes development while sinking air precludes development.
Goodbye Fred..... Shear tendency increasing highly, there is an extremly remote chance of SUSTANABILITY in my opinion (Sorry for the bad spellink.... Lahing Ot Louoood)the SSTs, wind shear, and lower moisture are killing the hurricane. R.I.A. Fred
1686. hydrus
Quoting F5Tornado:


Typhoon Whaaaa? (That probably will be a name) " Major Typhoon Whaaaa kills thousands due to excess laughter because or the Nationwide Broadcast, the citizens only took action after the power to the T.V. was cut, however hundreds may have died BECAUSE of laughing. In other news....."
I am saying to you that name has already been used for a typhoon.
Quoting hydrus:
I am saying to you that name has already been used for a typhoon.


Not a suprise if it is, the names go from things that seem to refer to "Typhoon Kwan Kwo Do" to "Typhoon Mushroom Soup!"
1688. Gumluvr
Quoting F5Tornado:
Goodbye Fred..... Shear tendency increasing highly, there is an extremly remote chance of SUSTANABILITY in my opinion (Sorry for the bad spellink.... Lahing Ot Louoood)the SSTs, wind shear, and lower moisture are killing the hurricane. R.I.A. Fred


We can all breathe a sigh of relief when it does. Hopefully, the gulf won't be able to produce anything more than a TS this season. Don't worry about the spelling. LOL It is late for us. You do live near my area, correct?? TexNowNM emailed me and said she you were. I live North of Beaumont.
1689. hydrus
Quoting F5Tornado:


Not a suprise if it is, the names go from things that seem to refer to "Typhoon Kwan Kwo Do" to "Typhoon Mushroom Soup!"
If I only knew how to link I would show it to you, Its worth a look. I have to learn more about these computers. My Tandy 64K was a lot different than the new ones of today.
1690. Gumluvr
Quoting hydrus:
I am saying to you that name has already been used for a typhoon.


That is too funny for words. LMBO
1691. hydrus
Quoting Gumluvr:


That is too funny for words. LMBO
Did you look it up?
Remnants of Erika
Pinhole eye (dreaded)?
BYX
1693. JLPR
Quoting hydrus:
You think that is stupid, Google typhoon Longwang (this is not a joke) and return here and tell me if you laughed.


yep I laughed =P but the Typhoon was a strong one
plus the name has been used twice lol
in 2000 and in 2005
The 2005 Longwang from Wikipedia
1694. hydrus
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
Remnants of Erika
Pinhole eye (dreaded)?
BYX
were is that radar out of?
oh yeah, Typhoon Longwang 2005, well, he eventually "petered out" lmao...........
1696. hydrus
Quoting JLPR:


yep I laughed =P but the Typhoon was a strong one
plus the name has been used twice lol
in 2000 and in 2005
The 2005 Longwang from Wikipedia
Cool, I am glad you saw it, I have a witness.lol.
1697. hydrus
Quoting VEROBEACHFL1:
oh yeah, Typhoon Longwang 2005, well, he eventually "petered out" lmao...........
you get an A for wit sharp enough to shave with. ..that was good.
1698. hydrus
Quoting hydrus:
were is that radar out of?
It looks like the Fl Straits.
1700. hydrus
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
BYX
I do not comprehend BYX..Please elaborate futher on radar situation.
1701. Gumluvr
Quoting hydrus:
Did you look it up?


Yeah, not much info for the first year it was used. Now, the second in 2005, the name is funny but not the fatalities. :( Hope, I didn't offend anyone. They really need to change there naming system but the names probably mean something totally different to them.
1702. hydrus
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
BYX
Thank you very much , it is the place of my birth..MMEEEAAMMEEE! Oh, thats Key West.
Quoting Gumluvr:


We can all breathe a sigh of relief when it does. Hopefully, the gulf won't be able to produce anything more than a TS this season. Don't worry about the spelling. LOL It is late for us. You do live near my area, correct?? TexNowNM emailed me and said she you were. I live North of Beaumont.


Nope, guess again, somewhere in the Dust Bowl.... Drum Roll please.... (I hate the dustbowl)

UTAH!!!! The site for the most boring weather on earth, and I am a severe weather enthusiast! Figures that I love severe weather and I just hate how thunderstorms come in, hit the rockies and

A. The low pressure system breaks apart and so does the thunderstorm
B. Just before hitting, the thunderstorm dissapates
C.The Salt Lake Splits the thudnerstorm in to halves, and the cirrus trails are the 'only thing that hits us.

Other things like, the other month, A cold front with rotation came 9in at almost the right time. And guess what was missing? MOISTURE!!! And what happened after the cold front passed??? MOSITURE CAME!! And raced the Cold front over Oklahoma!
Quoting Gumluvr:


Yeah, not much info for the first year it was used. Now, the second in 2005, the name is funny but not the fatalities. :( Hope, I didn't offend anyone. They really need to change there naming system but the names probably mean something totally different to them.


I made fun of more names then you could possibly imagine.
someone probably already answered you but in reality "longwang" for the chinese meant "dragon king", kinda like the u.s. equivelent to jim morrison as "the lizard king" --- or something like that........
1706. JLPR
Hello Fred

Blackout is over and im off to bed xD
goodnight
1707. hydrus
Quoting Gumluvr:


Yeah, not much info for the first year it was used. Now, the second in 2005, the name is funny but not the fatalities. :( Hope, I didn't offend anyone. They really need to change there naming system but the names probably mean something totally different to them.
I know ,storm names was the issue and it lead inevitably to the dreaded typhoon Longwang-(which means dragon king in Chinese).
1708. hydrus
Quoting JLPR:
Hello Fred

Blackout is over and im off to bed xD
goodnight
Adios.
Couldn't sleep. Well it's not much but this finally updated.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TO THE NNE. SLY WINDS PICK UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE NW GULF ON MON AND
EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS ON TUE.

So if there is actually a surface low there already then. Maye we'll have something to track instead of guess if it will exist. Lol.
1710. hydrus
Quoting VEROBEACHFL1:
someone probably already answered you but in reality "longwang" for the chinese meant "dragon king", kinda like the u.s. equivelent to jim morrison as "the lizard king" --- or something like that........
I stand corrected, I said it was Dragon tail .
Im embarrased
1712. hydrus
Quoting F5Tornado:
Im embarrased
About what?
WEEEEEEEEEEEEL I am off to bed soon, I just wanted to say that

A. I am definetly going to find a Japanese Translation Site for making fun of Typhoon Names Accuratly
B. I am going to link my "Dust Bowl Complaints
C. I am Going to Stop capitalizing words so Often starting NOW|
D. I will not stop talking about Thunderstorms and Tornadoes like they are people...... hi Fred!
E. I am going to stop writing at 12:40 a.m. in the morning whrn I have to get up at 9! Probably 11p.m.
F. I am going to stop BROADCASTING MY THOUGHT ON THE BLOG COMMENT SECTION!!

And thats my pledge to stop "comment warming".

By the way, wind shear is hurting ALL cyclones bad, we have only had 2 Hurricanes out of 7 cyclones! One was a depression.
"Longwang".... I thought it meant something else... I was horribaly wrong.
1715. hydrus
Quoting F5Tornado:
WEEEEEEEEEEEEL I am off to bed soon, I just wanted to say that

A. I am definetly going to find a Japanese Translation Site for making fun of Typhoon Names Accuratly
B. I am going to link my "Dust Bowl Complaints
C. I am Going to Stop capitalizing words so Often starting NOW|
D. I will not stop talking about Thunderstorms and Tornadoes like they are people...... hi Fred!
E. I am going to stop writing at 12:40 a.m. in the morning whrn I have to get up at 9! Probably 11p.m.
F. I am going to stop BROADCASTING MY THOUGHT ON THE BLOG COMMENT SECTION!!

And thats my pledge to stop "comment warming".

By the way, wind shear is hurting ALL cyclones bad, we have only had 2 Hurricanes out of 7 cyclones! One was a depression.
Well if you want storms you can relocate to the Philippines, they get spanked all the time, year round !
Quoting hydrus:
Well if you want storms you can relocate to the Philippines, they get spanked all the time, year round !


I am more interested in Tornadoes... Oklahoma or Missouri perhaps? Im only 12.... family dependant for moving. Good family, bad location.
1717. Gumluvr
Quoting F5Tornado:


Nope, guess again, somewhere in the Dust Bowl.... Drum Roll please.... (I hate the dustbowl)

UTAH!!!! The site for the most boring weather on earth, and I am a severe weather enthusiast! Figures that I love severe weather and I just hate how thunderstorms come in, hit the rockies and

A. The low pressure system breaks apart and so does the thunderstorm
B. Just before hitting, the thunderstorm dissapates
C.The Salt Lake Splits the thudnerstorm in to halves, and the cirrus trails are the 'only thing that hits us.

Other things like, the other month, A cold front with rotation came 9in at almost the right time. And guess what was missing? MOISTURE!!! And what happened after the cold front passed??? MOSITURE CAME!! And raced the Cold front over Oklahoma!


She must have forgot because she mentioned you and a few others. She stated they all lived near my area. Oh well, I like Utah. My brother lived in Provo for a while. If it is any constellation, you can come to our area for a visit during our next bad weather event. I will even leave you the keys to my house. LOL
1718. hydrus
Quoting F5Tornado:


I am more interested in Tornadoes... Oklahoma or Missouri perhaps? Im only 12.... family dependant for moving. Good family, bad location.
Quoting F5Tornado:


I am more interested in Tornadoes... Oklahoma or Missouri perhaps? Im only 12.... family dependant for moving. Good family, bad location.
Yeah, well if you ever get hit by a tornado you will probably end up more than just interested. they are extremely dangerous.
1719. Gumluvr
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Couldn't sleep. Well it's not much but this finally updated.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TO THE NNE. SLY WINDS PICK UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE NW GULF ON MON AND
EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS ON TUE.

So if there is actually a surface low there already then. Maye we'll have something to track instead of guess if it will exist. Lol.


Oh, goody(feel the sarcasm flowing). This won't help me sleep tonight. :(
Quoting Gumluvr:


Oh, goody(feel the sarcasm flowing). This won't help me sleep tonight. :(


I thought I would be that way. But I nodded off again tomorrows models should do better since theres something there finally. I better put the puter down and go to sleep. Before it slides on the floor. Lol. See ya tomorrow. :)
NIght all, and thanks for your opinions, Ill move to Oklahoma soon when I can, Ill see you all tomorrow at around 11:30 MT. Night!
1722. hydrus
Quoting Gumluvr:


Oh, goody(feel the sarcasm flowing). This won't help me sleep tonight. :(
If you were here earlier you could of read Ritarefugee posts,you would have got an eyefull.
1723. hydrus
Quoting F5Tornado:
NIght all, and thanks for your opinions, Ill move to Oklahoma soon when I can, Ill see you all tomorrow at around 11:30 MT. Night!
see ya.
1724. hydrus
good night, good people of the Wunder blog.;-
1725. Gumluvr
Well, I missed telling you all goodnight. See everyone tomorrow, too.
Can someone please explain the system over the delmarva peninsula. It feels very strong out there and it looks like it has a lot of potential even though i know it's not 'tropical'.
1727. IKE
Quoting kingdomusa:
Can someone please explain the system over the delmarva peninsula. It feels very strong out there and it looks like it has a lot of potential even though i know it's not 'tropical'.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN THE REGION AND HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE TEXAS COAST IS INTERACTING WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF
COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Quoting kingdomusa:
Can someone please explain the system over the delmarva peninsula. It feels very strong out there and it looks like it has a lot of potential even though i know it's not 'tropical'.
It's convection supported by the upper levels.Link
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
429 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
DELMARVA. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE DELMARVA THROUGH TONIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.


LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEEPENING SUBTROPICAL LOW JUST OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...~1034 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER ATLANTIC CANADA/JUST OFF THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE....WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. KDOX
VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTING VEERING/INCREASING WIND FLOW WITH HEIGHT
(WIND MAXIMA RIGHT AROUND 5-6KFT) OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INVOF
LOW.
Low has moved off of Africa


Good Morning

Tropical Update

cv season might be coming to a end usually sept 15 is about the end but with fred moving slowly in the cent atlantic it might be coming to an end this week.
1735. surfmom
Good Morning, Fred dead.....?
coffee, fred still there but slowing down, as a weak system can he make it all the way to the contus?
Good Morning StormW!

Can ffed take the low level express all the way to the us as a weaker system?
Quoting leftovers:
cv season might be coming to a end usually sept 15 is about the end but with fred moving slowly in the cent atlantic it might be coming to an end this week.


GFS suggests more continued activity through the next few days at least however. CV season doesnt end till the end of September usually. Later all.
Quoting extreme236:


GFS suggests more continued activity through the next few days at least however. CV season doesnt end till the end of September usually. Later all.
all star hows it going to develop with fred sitting there? if you find a storm that develops after sept 15 that affected the conus you are better than me
Quoting leftovers:
hows it going to develop with fred sitting there?


Fred will be weakening and moving out of the picture. I'll be back this afternoon.
1741. IKE
From Mobile,AL....

"LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE UPPER LOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY MORNING WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND GEM
MOVING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY TO GENERALLY OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS
UNUSUAL PATTERN PANS OUT...BUT IF SO THEN THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
LIKEWISE DRIFTS EASTWARD KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN A WET PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GFS AND GEM...AM GOING TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY TAPERING TO
GOOD CHANCE FOR TUESDAY. WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OUT OF CONSIDERATION FOR UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED SOMEWHAT BY INCREASED
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD."
Joe Bastardi this morn.


FRIDAY 6 AM

HERE IS TODAYS WEATHER QUIZ QUESTION FOR EVERYONE IN THE NATION THAT WATCHES THE WEATHER.

HOW DOES A "NON TROPICAL LOW" MOVE NORTHWEST INTO A SITE AND CAUSE THE ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WATCHES NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER?

The answer.. it doesnt.. the storm is tropical, and that is why tornadoes can develop in the banding.

Think about what you are asked to believe here by the "naming authorities" That tornadoes are possible in spiral bands in a system that is not tropical..to the northwest of its center ( now near the mouth of Delaware bay) How does anyone explain this with a straight face and say its not tropical is beyond me.

This is the first tropical cyclone since 1903 to hit new Jersey directly from the ocean. . The center will crawl inland today and start to die. The worst of the storm appears to be in coastal south Jersey ( I have not spoken to my spies there yet) where winds have been gusting over 50 mph with the torrential rains. I have not seen storm reports on other gusts yet. Highest sustained winds have been 40 kts on Delaware bay. I suspect we will find some reports of wind gusts to near hurricane force with storm reporters check in given the alignment of the bands and their intensity.

By the way,. the temp near the center, at the Delaware May buoy, rose 5 degrees as the center approached


thanks for reading, ciao for now ****

FRIDAY 3 AM

PEAK WIND GUST

At 1 am The Atlantic City Marina had a wind gust to 56 mph, the highest I have seen so far with this storm, and the highest reported the hurricane season from any of the systems to affect the US mainland

ciao for now *****
Quoting leftovers:
all star hows it going to develop with fred sitting there? if you find a storm that develops after sept 15 that affected the conus you are better than me


Im not talking about CONUS threats. And Fred is weakening at a good clip, so its doubtful it will interfere with any other developments.
CV season ends around the 30 of September.

CV season is 1 August and 30 September. It's not correlated to US landfall but one of the latest CV landfalls was Georges which struck both the islands and conus after September 15.
Joe B. has really got it out for the NHC.
1747. IKE
6Z GFS......takes Fred on a cruise...
1748. WxLogic
Good morning...
1751. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:
6Z NOGAPS


Has been persistent with this solution and trending a bit stronger...
I'm a newbie, and I don't know a lot about cyclogenesis and non-tropical systems and whatnot, but I just had to say - this is my first exposure to Joe Bastardi, and even I can tell that he's, um, prone to histrionics.

I'm looking out my window in New Jersey at this HORRIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE that is HORRIBLE, OH NO! and it's...raining. Some breeze. Ooh, how awful. Ooh, I'm terrified, Bastardi. Shaking in my boots.
1754. IKE
Quoting StormW:


Good morning.

Morning IKE.


Good Friday morning.

TGIF:)
Quoting StormW:
Good morning 456.


Morning
Thanks, Was out making coffee
1757. IKE
Quoting WxLogic:


Has been persistent with this solution and trending a bit stronger...


Interesting that it takes a vorticity to peninsula Florida and shoots it back west, strengthening it.

00Z NOGAPS.....was the same...
Cyclone phase diagrams agree with Joe Bastardi

Never quite seen a year with so many hybrid systems during summer along the US East Coast, this is the 3rd such system since July 23's 98L.
Quoting violetprofusion:
I'm a newbie, and I don't know a lot about cyclogenesis and non-tropical systems and whatnot, but I just had to say - this is my first exposure to Joe Bastardi, and even I can tell that he's, um, prone to histrionics.

I'm looking out my window in New Jersey at this HORRIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE that is HORRIBLE, OH NO! and it's...raining. Some breeze. Ooh, how awful. Ooh, I'm terrified, Bastardi. Shaking in my boots.

That is his style. He wants to do away with NWS and let inaccuweather be in charge of forecasting and issuing warnings and watches. LMAO
Quoting violetprofusion:
I'm a newbie, and I don't know a lot about cyclogenesis and non-tropical systems and whatnot, but I just had to say - this is my first exposure to Joe Bastardi, and even I can tell that he's, um, prone to histrionics.

I'm looking out my window in New Jersey at this HORRIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE that is HORRIBLE, OH NO! and it's...raining. Some breeze. Ooh, how awful. Ooh, I'm terrified, Bastardi. Shaking in my boots.



So if its not flattening everything, its not a TC? Pretty lame rebuttal. I'm not saying JB is right. But he makes a good argument that the system is warm-core.
Quoting Dodabear:

That is his style. He wants to do away with NWS and let inaccuweather be in charge of forecasting and issuing warnings and watches. LMAO



Thats one of the dumbest statements ever posted here. Also an outright lie. Unreal.
1763. P451
The East Coast Gale is pretty strong. We're under a Tornado Watch now. We had a couple of good blasts over night but are now awaiting the core of the system to work it's way up the coast. South Jersey is getting hit pretty good right now.

Objectivity is good thing. SOme posters here don't have it.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Thats one of the dumbest statements ever posted here. Also an outright lie. Unreal.

What about that is a lie?
1766. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



So if its not flattening everything, its not a TC? Pretty lame rebuttal. I'm not saying JB is right. But he makes a good argument that the system is warm-core.


I just checked buoys up there and there are gusts in the 40+ mph range.

I looked at Atlantic City, NJ weather. Gusts to 33 mph. Severe thunderstorm warning out....

"UNTIL 815 AM EDT

* AT 644 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTED A
COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THESE STORMS
HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. ALL ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.".....


Tornado Watch...flood advisory...coastal flood advisory....


I'm sure when P451 gets on here he may have much to add.
He wants to do away with NWS and let inaccuweather be in charge of forecasting and issuing warnings and watches. LMAO


Thats the lie.
1768. Dakster
GGGOOOOOOOODDDDDD MORNING WeatherUnderground.

Happy Friday to all that today is really their Friday. (In otherwords, you don't have to work on the weekend).

It's a raining here in South Florida. We may not need a TS to get flodded out if this keeps up! I see nothing else has changed since last night. Still little yellow circles and Fred is a little weaker and still in the same spot.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Thats one of the dumbest statements ever posted here. Also an outright lie. Unreal.


Joe has been criticizing the NWS for as long as I could remember. One of the arguments is the provision of free weather information. They have disagreed with the NHC naming especially with another non tropical low in late June 2006 and had different ideas about Katrina.

As for taking over the NWS job, I dont know becuz its a pretty extensive job for the organization and I dont think they are that large.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
He wants to do away with NWS and let inaccuweather be in charge of forecasting and issuing warnings and watches. LMAO


Thats the lie.


NOT! He was with the senator from PA that introduced a bill to do away with the NWS and let a commercial firm take over. He even made reference to that is one of his blog entries that you posted. You need to check your facts before you call someone out.
StormW. You got an opinion on this one?

Is it a TC or is JB losing the bubble here?
1772. IKE
Maybe the NHC designates the system in post-season analysis...or maybe they designate it in a few minutes.

I don't really understand the way they've handled this one since it started. But, they've stuck to it being non-tropical and conditions remain unfavorable.
One clear argument is that the feature is tied to a frontal boundary but other data looks subtropical. Its not extratropical or tropical so most likely its hybrid, without enough organization and/or characteristics to be named.

Name or not, its affecting weather
1774. IKE
Quoting Dakster:
GGGOOOOOOOODDDDDD MORNING WeatherUnderground.

Happy Friday to all that today is really their Friday. (In otherwords, you don't have to work on the weekend).

It's a raining here in South Florida. We may not need a TS to get flodded out if this keeps up! I see nothing else has changed since last night. Still little yellow circles and Fred is a little weaker and still in the same spot.


Rain over the SE USA isn't going away anytime soon. The GOM is loaded with convection.

I thought it was a downward MJO?
Did a quick google search. I found at least one other "nor'easter" that had a warm core. Looks like it could have been debated then too though...

Christmas 1994

Deemed a hybrid storm, the cyclone rapidly intensified in warm waters of up to 80 °F (27 °C) from the Gulf Stream combined with a cold air mass over the United States.[4] The system continued to rapidly intensify while moving within the Gulf Stream; it developed central convection, an unusual trait for an extratropical cyclone, and at one point it exhibited an eye.[2] Despite these indications of tropical characteristics, forecaster Jack Beven later stated, "There was no front associated with it and it had a warm core, but the radius of maximum winds was more than 150 nautical miles [175 mi, 280 km], so under the standard NHC criteria it didn’t qualify as a tropical storm."
News to me. I read his column most everyday. What bill? It would be a matter of public record. I'll post a public apology to you if you can point me in the right direction.
1777. P451
The East Coast Storm looks very subtropicalish.. but looks are deceiving. Still a non-tropical low.
Its not uncommon for a northeaster to have warm-core characteristics. They are more popular than you think, hence the warm front. The difference is, do they fit the entire definition of a subtropical cyclone.

subtropical cyclones have warm core also but they have no fronts.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
News to me. I read his column most everyday. What bill? It would be a matter of public record. I'll post a public apology to you if you can point me in the right direction.


Here you go. I stand ready for your apology.


National Weather Service forecasts to be banned?

Posted by: JeffMasters,
It may soon be illegal for the National Weather Service (NWS) to issue non-severe weather forecasts under the provisions of the National Weather Service Duties Act of 2005, Senate Bill S.786, introduced April 14 by Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa.

The bill's key provision (Section 2b) states that the National Weather Service cannot provide "a product or service...that is or could be provided by the private sector", with the exception of severe weather forecasts and warnings needed to protect life and property. Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez is given sole authority on how to interpret what NWS products and services should be restricted. In his comments upon introduction of the bill, Senator Santorum said the bill would boost the private weather industry by reducing unfair competition from the NWS and generate cost savings to the government, remarking, "The beauty of a highly competent private sector is that services that are not inherently involved in public safety and security can be carried out with little or no expenditure of taxpayer dollars."

Why The Weather Underground opposes the National Weather Service Duties Act of 2005

Poorer Forecasts.
It is unclear from the bill's language whether the NWS would be allowed to continue making its routine public and marine forecasts. This decision would be made by the Secretary of Commerce. I believe the expertise of the NWS forecasters is unmatched anywhere in the world, and throwing away their forecasts would be a shameful waste. Although the private weather industry can and does provide routine public and marine forecasts, the quality of these forecasts is sometimes poor and would likely worsen if the NWS ceased issuing forecasts. When I participated in forecasting contests both as a student and an instructor, I discovered that while it was difficult--but not impossible--to beat the NWS forecast, it was nearly impossible to beat the "consensus" forecast--that is, the average of everyone's forecast. Private weather industry forecasters do their own forecasting, but will usually check their forecast against what the NWS says before sending it out. If the NWS forecast differs considerably, there will frequently be an adjustment made towards the NWS forecast, resulting in a better "consensus" forecast. So, with the proposed legislation, not only would we lose the best forecasts available, but the forecasts from the private weather companies would also worsen. Many sectors of our economy depend upon good forecasts, and passage of the bill might result in a loss of millions of dollars to the economy.

Elimination of routine NWS forecasts would result in little cost savings to the government. The 24-hour staffing at NWS offices required to make severe weather forecasts would not change significantly, and these forecasters would need to be working all the time making forecasts in order to fulfill their duty to make severe weather forecasts. If the NWS has to keep their forecasting staff in place, why not continue to let them make their excellent forecasts? Ed Johnson, the weather service's director of strategic planning and policy remarked, "If someone claims that our core mission is just warning the public of hazardous conditions, that's really impossible unless we forecast the weather all the time. You don't just plug in your clock when you want to know what time it is."

Not all private industry would benefit. The Weather Underground, Inc. relies heavily on NWS forecasts and products that would likely be eliminated. Without these products, our company would likely be forced to significantly downsize. Other private weather companies are in the same situation, and smaller TV and radio stations that rely on free NWS forecasts would also suffer. And K-12 schools that rely on the ad-free weather.gov web site would be forced to eliminate some weather education offerings.

The bill primarily benefits those private weather companies with large staffs of forecasters that can make forecasts for the entire country, such as AccuWeather and the Weather Channel. Legislation like this has been pushed for many years by the Commercial Weather Services Association, led by AccuWeather, a company based in Pennsylvania. CWSA and AccuWeather managed to get almost identical bill introduced in the House in 1999.

Too much power is given to the Secretary of Commerce. The decisions on which NWS services and products unfairly compete with private industry are given to one person, the Secretary of Commerce. Leaving one politically-appointed person in charge of this decision-making is unwise. A more fair solution would be to form a committee to make the decisions.

How to oppose The National Weather Service Duties Act of 2005. The National Weather Service Duties Act of 2005 is currently before the Senate Commerce Committee, and will have to make it out of there before the full Senate votes on it. The time to kill this bill is now! If you're interested, you can sign a petition opposing the National Weather Service Duties Act of 2005, or write your Senator if he or she is on the Senate Commerce Committee:

http://commerce.senate.gov/about/membership.html
1782. P451
Quoting Weather456:
One clear argument is that the feature is tied to a frontal boundary but other data looks subtropical. Its not extratropical or tropical so most likely its hybrid, without enough organization and/or characteristics to be named.

Name or not, its affecting weather


This system is giving us the same weather right now that any equal strength tropical system does up here. There is one difference: It is cold. It's in the upper 50s. It doesn't even feel humid.

We'll see what happens as the core winds it's way up the coast to me but right now? It's just cold, wet, and windy.

I'm in the red circle:



Quoting violetprofusion:
I'm a newbie, and I don't know a lot about cyclogenesis and non-tropical systems and whatnot, but I just had to say - this is my first exposure to Joe Bastardi, and even I can tell that he's, um, prone to histrionics.

I'm looking out my window in New Jersey at this HORRIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE that is HORRIBLE, OH NO! and it's...raining. Some breeze. Ooh, how awful. Ooh, I'm terrified, Bastardi. Shaking in my boots.

Since you are a newbie you should refrain from making comments about someone else atleast until you have been on long enough to get a real idea of whats going on.
1785. WxLogic
Quoting StormW:


JB may be right in a sense. The satellite overlay shows a stationary front near it, so if it is still under the influence of the front, then it's not purley tropical.

However, it appears to be warm core. One way to tell if it's more tropical is, the winds will be strongest as you get closer to the center. One take I have on this is, it may not have any influence from the front, as the front was depicted in the overlay as stationary. So, if the front is not moving, and the system is, it may be free of the front.

Another way we can tell is, if this weakens as it moves inland, we know it's more of a tropical feature. Baroclinic systems comin from the ocean do not weaken per se oncethey move inland as a tropical system would.

With this having been over the Gulfstream, it could very well have been very close, or even made the transition just before coming ashore.


Hehe... this brings back memories from last year's extratropical/subtropical debate on the Mid ATL system.
Post 1781 - here's the link to what you posted.

What I find amazing is that I only see 10 comments on that blog. LOL.
1788. IKE
Quoting tornadofan:
Post 1781 - here's the link to what you posted.

What I find amazing is that I only see 10 comments on that blog. LOL.


Ten comments...lol.

There's been 10 on here in the last 15 minutes. I don't recognize any of those SN's. What happened to 99% of the bloggers from back then? And that was the summer of Katrina.
1789. P451
Quoting StormW:


JB may be right in a sense. The satellite overlay shows a stationary front near it, so if it is still under the influence of the front, then it's not purley tropical.

However, it appears to be warm core. One way to tell if it's more tropical is, the winds will be strongest as you get closer to the center. One take I have on this is, it may not have any influence from the front, as the front was depicted in the overlay as stationary. So, if the front is not moving, and the system is, it may be free of the front.

Another way we can tell is, if this weakens as it moves inland, we know it's more of a tropical feature. Baroclinic systems comin from the ocean do not weaken per se oncethey move inland as a tropical system would.

With this having been over the Gulfstream, it could very well have been very close, or even made the transition just before coming ashore.


The wind here in NJ has been fairly consistent since yesterday evening. It ramped up during the over night - we had some gusts pushing 50 for certain with some heavy rain squalls. Right now I'm awaiting that arm of precip to move north - and as of now we're gusting to around 40 at times.

We will see what I get as the core moves closer.

It's cold outside right now though it does not resemble the feel we get when a decaying TS moves up over us. That might change when that arc of precip moves north of me.

Usually with an advancing TS, even a decaying one like say Hannah last summer, it gets very warm and sticky out.

It's not like that at the moment and hasn't been through the event up until now.
Quoting tornadofan:
Post 1781 - here's the link to what you posted.

What I find amazing is that I only see 10 comments on that blog. LOL.


Got to remember that is when the blogs first got started here.
1791. P451
When this arc of precip moves over me it'll probably ramp up here significantly in wind.

After that moves north, if this is ST in any nature, I would expect a warmer stickier feel to the weather. It's just cold and damp right now.

NWS does not have well defined criteria for subtropical systems.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS


2.1 Subtropical Cyclone Public Advisories (TCP). NHC will issue subtropical cyclone advisories. However, due to the lack of well-defined criteria for distinguishing subtropical from non-tropical lows, marginally-subtropical systems may be handled as non-tropical gale or storm centers in High Seas forecast products.
Good morning friends. Could one of you nice folks tell me what the white line represents on the Ensemble Models? Thanks in adavance and thanks for all the great info you all provide. Bob
1794. P451
Quoting Weather456:
Never quite seen a year with so many hybrid systems during summer along the US East Coast, this is the 3rd such system since July 23's 98L.


Agreed and I feel this might be a portendor of things to come - in terms of winter systems.

Local meterologists have hinted a few times this summer that the summer and storm tracks are similar to those in the 75-78 span of time - in which we ended up with some pretty bad winters.

I don't know how linked a summer pattern is to forecasting a winter pattern but I don't think you can discount it.

Besides, the phrase "we're due" certainly applies in this region of the US. We do have a pattern in this area that does repeat quite readily.

Every 6-8 years we get whacked during the winter. Had some near misses last year.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
News to me. I read his column most everyday. What bill? It would be a matter of public record. I'll post a public apology to you if you can point me in the right direction.


I'm waiting.
Quoting RidingTheStormOut:
Good morning friends. Could one of you nice folks tell me what the white line represents on the Ensemble Models? Thanks in adavance and thanks for all the great info you all provide. Bob


The GFS forecast.
1797. P451
QPF for Today

1798. tramp96
Quoting P451:


The wind here in NJ has been fairly consistent since yesterday evening. It ramped up during the over night - we had some gusts pushing 50 for certain with some heavy rain squalls. Right now I'm awaiting that arm of precip to move north - and as of now we're gusting to around 40 at times.

We will see what I get as the core moves closer.

It's cold outside right now though it does not resemble the feel we get when a decaying TS moves up over us. That might change when that arc of precip moves north of me.

Usually with an advancing TS, even a decaying one like say Hannah last summer, it gets very warm and sticky out.

It's not like that at the moment and hasn't been through the event up until now.


Any power outages?
It may soon be illegal for the National Weather Service (NWS) to issue non-severe weather forecasts under the provisions of the National Weather Service Duties Act of 2005, Senate Bill S.786, introduced April 14 by Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa



Thats not exactly doing away with NWS. Just limiting its scope.


The bill primarily benefits those private weather companies with large staffs of forecasters that can make forecasts for the entire country, such as AccuWeather and the Weather Channel. Legislation like this has been pushed for many years by the Commercial Weather Services Association, led by AccuWeather, a company based in Pennsylvania. CWSA and AccuWeather managed to get almost identical bill introduced in the House in 1999.

Certainly Accuweather is on-board with this. JB doesnt run Accuweather tho. That being said. I see what you mean. I'm not sure I owe you an apology, I see where ya commin from. Thanx for pointing this out.
Quoting IKE:
6Z GFS......takes Fred on a cruise...



I have to say that would be quite remarkable.

Morning All.
And quite likely if there is anything left and finds some decent conditions.



1802. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 745 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE DELAWARE
COAST IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE
REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES
IN THE REGION AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF
COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

1803. IKE
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



I have to say that would be quite remarkable.

Morning All.


If the trough is moving north as it's predicted to do, the A/B high would expand and Fred would come under it's steering influence.

The jet stream, which has been responsible for the trough, has moved up north.
Patrap im thinking were going to get alot of rain if its already raining at 6:58 A.M
Quoting yonzabam:


If the trough is moving north as it's predicted to do, the A/B high would expand and Fred would come under it's steering influence.

The jet stream, which has been responsible for the trough, has moved up north.


I am curious to see what the steering will be down the line if it were to maintain TS storm status and not degenerate into a remnant low. Fred's already a record breaker and I tend to pay a little more attention to those types.
Honestly, the GFS may not be too far off with bringing the remnants of Fred to the USA. If the models are right, the "monster troughs" will come to a halt for a while and building ridges may take place next week, which steers storms west. So the area that just came off Africa, that one has a chance to be affected more by a ridge then a trough.
Morning all.......This will always be a day to remember!
Most models are looking scary for the CONUS
Quoting reedzone:
Honestly, the GFS may not be too far off with bringing the remnants of Fred to the USA. If the models are right, the "monster troughs" will come to a halt for a while and building ridges may take place next week, which steers storms west. So the area that just came off Africa, that one has a chance to be affected more by a ridge then a trough.


While I agree with that scenario IF ridging were to take over, ridging has been forecast to take over for some time now and, as we have witnessed time and time again, trough's rule the stage.
Good morning! The weather here in Michigan is just beautiful!! Summer finally arrived.
GO BLUE!
1812. P451
Northern reach of the arc of precip has begun to reach me. Wind definitely picked up now. Consistently gusting 35-40. Had one that had to be pushing 50 again as several live 1/8th inch twigs got ripped off every tree within sight. Numerous leaves of course got ripped down with that one. A few dead 1/4 inch thick limbs came down as well. So I'd say about 50mph.

We don't yet have a sustained wind per say as we get lulls that are down to 10mph or less - again - not very tropical like - more winter gale like.

Still cold and wet - not warm and sticky as it is when TS's get up here. Again, waiting to see what happens after this arc of precip.

I'm sure this storm has hybrid characteristics but there is something to be said for ground observations by those going through it. Right now? It's just a gale to me. We'll see as we get under the influence of the core if the weather changes to a more tropical nature or not.
Morning everyone.

Yea Tim, it is, and it all began to go down about this time of the morning.
Quoting IKE:


Rain over the SE USA isn't going away anytime soon. The GOM is loaded with convection.

I thought it was a downward MJO?


Then we better all buy boats, JFV included when upward pulse comes.
1815. P451
Quoting tramp96:


Any power outages?


None that I know of. I expect some though given the limbs that have already been brought down. I would think that arm of precip is going to have some real good wind gusts in there.

Here is the system outage map for NJ/JCPL

Link

It seems some are without power and are likely storm related (near the coastal regions).

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


While I agree with that scenario IF ridging were to take over, ridging has been forecast to take over for some time now and, as we have witnessed time and time again, trough's rule the stage.


The troughs have ruled because of the unusually southerly position of the jet stream. It was over Scotland during July/August, bringing us a very wet summer, with the remnants of Bill and Danny thrown in for good measure.

It's now moved north to Iceland and we have some sun here, for a change. I'd expect some northward movement from the westward region of the jet stream, too. So, the prediction that there will be ridging instead of a trough looks like a pretty solid bet to me.
Quoting caneluver:
Most models are looking scary for the CONUS


yeah... 20knot remnant low heading towards the US has the coast heading to their evacuation shelters
1818. P451
Quoting indianrivguy:
Morning everyone.

Yea Tim, it is, and it all began to go down about this time of the morning.


Where I live I could see it. We had ash fallout from it for days given the smoke trail went right over us.

Knew a handful of people that died in that.

Not a good day. I'd rather not remember to be honest. Paid my respects to several long ago.
1819. JRRP
Quoting reedzone:
Honestly, the GFS may not be too far off with bringing the remnants of Fred to the USA. If the models are right, the "monster troughs" will come to a halt for a while and building ridges may take place next week, which steers storms west. So the area that just came off Africa, that one has a chance to be affected more by a ridge then a trough.


isnt the nao or mjo - one of those special things i dont get - going to shift right about mid-late september?
Quoting serialteg:


yeah... 20knot remnant low heading towards the US has the coast heading to their evacuation shelters


Not just talking about Fred!!!! Look at the NOGAPS for the Gulf. That remnant low might turn out to be a big remnant low once it gets by the Bahamas.....................
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


I am curious to see what the steering will be down the line if it were to maintain TS storm status and not degenerate into a remnant low. Fred's already a record breaker and I tend to pay a little more attention to those types.


probly would not go as west as it is forecasted to
Quoting serialteg:


yeah... 20knot remnant low heading towards the US has the coast heading to their evacuation shelters


And why do you have to be a smart a@# this morning?
1825. Dakster
Quoting IKE:


Rain over the SE USA isn't going away anytime soon. The GOM is loaded with convection.

I thought it was a downward MJO?


The rain is coming DOWN...
Local Update:

Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Sunday

New model data this morning continues to point towards a tropical low (depression) or hybrid low developing near Brownsville and moving northeast through the weekend bringing torrential rainfall.

Deep atmospheric moisture remains entrenched across the area and and upper-level low over Central Texas will keep the chance for heavy rainfall in the forecast. Two inche per hour rainfall rates could easily produce street flooding. Remember, to turn around and not drown or risk costly damage to your vehicle - is it worth it? Highs today will climb to the lower-eighties.

Tonight, heavy rainfall will continue in the forecast with patchy fog and lows in the middle-seventies.

Saturday and Sunday will be wet as low pressure moves toward our area bringing torrential rainfall and breezy weather conditions. Highs may not get out of the seventies with nearly a one-hundred percent chance of heavy rainfall.
Heres the latest JB thoughts.


FRIDAY 7 AM
NOAA WEATHER RADIO KNOCKED OFF THE AIR... BUT WE HAVE HAVE KYW AND ELLIOT IN THE FIRST PLACE!

At the height of the storm... the flame throwing newstalk powerhouse of the Delaware valley is blasting the accuweather message into the storm area, so fear not huddled masses. we are with you!

I wonder why it got knocked off the air

The severe thunderstorm warnings are not because these are severe in the classic sense, but that the turbulent mixing in the banding allows the wind ( the vada has 65kts over south Jersey at 3k) to come down to the surface. SO this is tropical cyclone, banding created wind with thunderstorms going off because of the intense upward motion in the bands, caused by NON BAROCLINIC PROCESSES, but instead low level forcing which reaches its peak around the center. One can not help but notice there are strong winds near the center that steadily increase until the center comes over you.. as in a warm core cyclone.. which this is.

I have seen no storm reports out of Mt. Holly. Cmon guys, Taunton would have been had one out every three hours.. We may not be able to hear you, but we still love you.

Its just that we love Elliot more.

K-Y-W..News Radio.. 10-60

You can tell I am punch drunk from being up.. I am singing the KYW jingle to myself

ciao for now *****
1828. P451
Yeah, now we're getting into it. One good blast of thunder and the lights are now dimming on and off. Another wind gust pushing 50 for certain just ripped down more stuff from the trees and I hear someone's roof flashing clanking in the wind now.
Quoting P451:
Yeah, now we're getting into it. One good blast of thunder and the lights are now dimming on and off. Another wind gust pushing 50 for certain just ripped down more stuff from the trees and I hear someone's roof flashing clanking in the wind now.


hey P where you at, the disturbance on the northeast US coast?
P451, Fair enough brother, I did not suffer any personal losses, my condolences to you, and those that did. I hold in my heart the greatest of sorrow for the innocents we lost, and the highest of regards and honor for those going up when things came down. No harm meant.
Quoting caneluver:


And why do you have to be a smart a@# this morning?


this morning alone? i was born that way :)
1832. P451
Quoting serialteg:


hey P where you at, the disturbance on the northeast US coast?


Yep, coastal central jersey, about 7 miles in from the beach.

Just getting under that arc of precip that heads out into the ocean from the gale center.

Reminding me a lot of Hanna except...its cold and damp...not sticky and warm. Yet, same weather, except Hanna gave us no thunder, and I think these wind gusts might be stronger.

Quoting serialteg:


this morning alone? i was born that way :)


I see your a Packers fan. I will forget your smart a@#ness since I am a big fan myself. Can't wait until we play the Vikes.
Good morning everyone. Always sad thinking back to 8 years ago and what took place. Never forget that day.

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


While I agree with that scenario IF ridging were to take over, ridging has been forecast to take over for some time now and, as we have witnessed time and time again, trough's rule the stage.


i have to respectfully disagree. Id say that its currently 50% trough 50% shear. either way, the past doesnt determine the future.

Quoting yonzabam:


The troughs have ruled because of the unusually southerly position of the jet stream. It was over Scotland during July/August, bringing us a very wet summer, with the remnants of Bill and Danny thrown in for good measure.

It's now moved north to Iceland and we have some sun here, for a change. I'd expect some northward movement from the westward region of the jet stream, too. So, the prediction that there will be ridging instead of a trough looks like a pretty solid bet to me.


That could make for an interesting end of the season.
1837. P451
Quoting indianrivguy:
P451, Fair enough brother, I did not suffer any personal losses, my condolences to you, and those that did. I hold in my heart the greatest of sorrow for the innocents we lost, and the highest of regards and honor for those going up when things came down. No harm meant.


No worries and thanks. Just a touchy subject that's all.

Back to storm watching...standing in the garage watching it unfold. Getting pretty dark and quite a few really loud bangs out there from close lightning strikes.

1838. Dakster
Quoting BobinTampa:
Good morning everyone. Always sad thinking back to 8 years ago and what took place. Never forget that day.



Yep. I will never forget what I was doing or where I was at...
Quoting CandiBarr:


i have to respectfully disagree. Id say that its currently 50% trough 50% shear. either way, the past doesnt determine the future.



I wasn't referring to conditions inhibiting cyclones. I was referring to the persistent troughing pattern that has been in place on the east coast this summer and re-curving any cyclone that tries to make it to the US Coast. You dis-agree with that??????
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


I wasn't referring to conditions inhibiting cyclones. I was referring to the persistent troughing pattern that has been in place on the east coast this summer and re-curving any cyclone that tries to make it too the US Coast. You dis-agree with that??????


well yeah, look at the map. what about the ones that didnt recurve. there are just as many that didnt as did.
Quoting P451:
Northern reach of the arc of precip has begun to reach me. Wind definitely picked up now. Consistently gusting 35-40. Had one that had to be pushing 50 again as several live 1/8th inch twigs got ripped off every tree within sight. Numerous leaves of course got ripped down with that one. A few dead 1/4 inch thick limbs came down as well. So I'd say about 50mph.

We don't yet have a sustained wind per say as we get lulls that are down to 10mph or less - again - not very tropical like - more winter gale like.

Still cold and wet - not warm and sticky as it is when TS's get up here. Again, waiting to see what happens after this arc of precip.

I'm sure this storm has hybrid characteristics but there is something to be said for ground observations by those going through it. Right now? It's just a gale to me. We'll see as we get under the influence of the core if the weather changes to a more tropical nature or not.


Are you in Delaware area??? Is there going to be bad weather all weekend? I am heading up that way today.
I'm out. Gotta date with a fishing pole.

"Women love me. Fish fear me."
And I agree with the past doesn't determine the future statement but, one can be skeptical of a persistent weather pattern.
Quoting CandiBarr:


well yeah, look at the map. what about the ones that didnt recurve. there are just as many that didnt as did.


I am confused?

I think an area in the SW Caribbean might bear watching.
The only reason the others didn't re-curve is because they we're weak storms. Claudette is the only one that didn't have a chance.
Quoting StormW:
Anyone know the significance of this?



Where is that bouy?
1849. IKE
Quoting StormW:
Anyone know the significance of this?



Looks tropical to me.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


I am confused


the females dont look like recurves to me, not at all. personally I am not gonna count storm "one" as it doesnt have actual name.

and the models had fred doing backflips two days ago we believed them then. why is it now out of the question that it would trend west over north or northeast?
I hate to ask, but is that in the GOM?
increased surface low prob? (guessing)
1854. ackee
the 2009 seasons comeing to end my thinking we see two more name system my view
Thanks Storm! I am going check that out! Was hoping that didn't come from a buoy in the GOMEX
"Anyone know the significance of this?"

Looks like a surface center has formed. Drop in pressure, change in wind direction...

If true, then the COC is over water which is not good...
850mb vorticity-- I don't see any where the disturbance is supposed to be
1859. IKE
Quoting StormW:


We have a winner!

Thanks IKE!


If it wasn't tropical you wouldn't see the winds drop off to near zero as the "center" went over this buoy.

Should have been designated.
1860. ackee
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think an area in the SW Caribbean might bear watching.
agree THINK THAT THE ONLY PLACE LOOKING 4 development now
Quoting StormW:
Anyone know the significance of this?



It shows a extreme drop in Surface Pressure in a short period of time and looking over a 4 day span as an average. End result! We have a Surface Low!
1862. P451


Pretty good shot from that. A few 50mph gusts. Generally gusting 35-40. Some pretty intense lightning strikes - all cloud to ground.

Still cold outside though.
1864. P451
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


Are you in Delaware area??? Is there going to be bad weather all weekend? I am heading up that way today.


NJ. Delaware is getting it as well. Today is a wash out. Tomorrow will be better south to north.

Looking at the loop that this image comes from, the eye like feature in the centre, which would have caused the drop in pressure and wind speed, only forms at the end of the loop, so it's probably a very recent development.


1866. P451
Quoting StormW:


As IKE stated...that chart is characteristic of a tropical cyclone passing over the buoy.


If that's the case then there you have it. It does resemble Hannah but this is stronger. The one thing I must continue to point out is that it is cold and damp here - not warm and sticky as every TS I've known has given us regardless of calendar date. It just has the look and feel of a winter gale and not a tropical system.

That's a technicality though as the influence is the same. High wind, heavy rain, coastal flooding.
area of disturbed weather off the african coast could become invest 97L . That is if the area off the us east coast is not designated today
Quoting Hurricajun:
I hate to ask, but is that in the GOM?


stalled weak surface trof in the gulf might eventually bring TX some flooding rains in a few days.Pressure in the area are quite high.
Quoting CandiBarr:


the females dont look like recurves to me, not at all. personally I am not gonna count storm "one" as it doesnt have actual name.

and the models had fred doing backflips two days ago we believed them then. why is it now out of the question that it would trend west over north or northeast?


I never said it was out of the question. If you go back to post 1800 and 1801 I actually agree with the scenario for Fred but, the post you questioned of mine had nothing to do about any specific storm rather a persistent pattern. I really don't care for the debate, keep my posts in context.
If that's the case then there you have it. It does resemble Hannah but this is stronger. The one thing I must continue to point out is that it is cold and damp here - not warm and sticky as every TS I've known has given us regardless of calendar date. It just has the look and feel of a winter gale and not a tropical system.


Sorry, quote function not working. Obviously, then, it's a hybrid system. Cold air with no one minute sustained winds is a gale. Other features are more tropical in character.
Nothing happening in the Gulf off TX,
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


I never said it was out of the question. If you go back to post 1800 and 1801 I actually agree with the scenario for Fred but, the post you questioned of mine had nothing to do about any specific storm rather a persistent pattern. I really don't care for the debate, keep my posts in context.


Post is not in context if you are looking at current information. You are looking at past trends.
The GOM low shows no signs of development at this time.
1875. jpsb
Quoting StormW:
Anyone know the significance of this?

Ahhh, low pressure just past by?
1876. P451
RAMSDIS has a floater for the EC Gale

Link





Eye feature? Really? Where's the convection though...





1877. P451
Quoting StormW:


Actually, it's subtropical. Just looked at my doppler radar software with temp. overlays at the station symbols. If the "center" is where I think it is, the temps are 5-6 degrees F warmer than the surrounding areas.

The chart for buoy 40099 clearly shows tropical data. You'll notice on that chart, the wind reaches it's max, at the same time the pressure bgins to bottom out. Then wind and pressure both drop, with the wind becoming calm. Just like when the eye of a storm passess over.


I'll certainly take your word and analysis for declaring it.

I will just continue to say it does not have that feel outside to it that every other TS or STS system that affects this (my) latitude does.

I am eager to see what happens when the core nears my area however.

Again, regardless, it's a pretty intense storm and we sure are feeling it's effects here.

even thought it's insignificant, it does have a friggin eye!
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Quoting caneluver:


I see your a Packers fan. I will forget your smart a@#ness since I am a big fan myself. Can't wait until we play the Vikes.


I never knew you Packer fans were so eagar to get beat LOL! No worries, it will happen soon enough, Oct. 5th to be exact! Go Vikings!
1882. Bonedog
gotta love a good gale =)

raining heavy, its windy and cold. I love the NE this time of year LOL
1884. Bonedog


Nice Ol Nor'Easter

NE1 and its a month early.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


I never said it was out of the question. If you go back to post 1800 and 1801 I actually agree with the scenario for Fred but, the post you questioned of mine had nothing to do about any specific storm rather a persistent pattern. I really don't care for the debate, keep my posts in context.


i am not sure, but I think my point is being missed all together.

point is: mother nature is an opportunist.. el Niño, recurves etc etc only lessens mother natures # of opportunities for a land strike, it doesnt eliminate them.

I don’t believe I was taking u out of context, maybe with fred but not with the entire season rational.
At this point is just agree to disagree, no need to get upset about it.

Anyway, im out for now..
1886. Bonedog
Hey Storm. Been very good Sir.

Been busy as all heck. Got my EMT Cert and have been working for my town at night and doing the normal job during the day.

Hows things on your end?
Hey Storm, what do you think of the wave that exited the African coast?
1888. Grothar
Sorry, quote function not working.

Just hit refresh and go back to the quote, I am having a similar problem. Usually works when you hit refresh.
Can you imagine being on a ship and the sun coming out and winds going calm just offshore of NJ...you'd be like what the heck?
1891. Bonedog
Thanks =)

Hopefully things get better for you. I can imagine how busy you have been. Started off quiet enough.
1892. P451
Second squall rolling through here in jersey. This one isn't as intense as the first I'd say in the low 30s for wind.

A quick 30 second video of it:

Link

If we get anything more significant as the core moves closer I'll post it. Otherwise just a breezy wet day here.
1895. Bonedog
Rita would be eerie. Have been in a few situations like that, actually puts fear into you because all of a sudden you realize what beast your dealing with
Quoting StormW:


Don't have any track info for you right now, but, I think it will continue to organize, albeit it's gonna be a slow process.


Ok, thank you.
1897. IKE
NORFOLK, Va. (AP) - Frank Batten Sr., who built a communications empire that spanned newspapers and cable television and created The Weather Channel, died Thursday. He was 82.

Batten, the retired chairman of privately held Landmark Communications and a former chairman of the board of The Associated Press, died in Norfolk after a prolonged illness, Landmark Vice Chairman Richard F. Barry III said.
1898. Bonedog
I hear ya Storm still keeping my fingers crossed for October. Dont need one sneaking up the Yuc on me
1899. Bonedog
BTW the phase diagrams for the system of NJ right now all show warm core, LOL Seems extratropical to me too darn chill to be tropical. Also no organized convection to speak of, Just a plain ol fall gale with a cold chilly windswept rain.

Does have a nice wind with it though. All beacuse of the strong High to our north its a pressure gradiant wind not storm induced. Should be a fun afternoon as the center starts to pass by.
i would look off the coast of mx development imo
1902. P451
Quoting Bonedog:
BTW the phase diagrams for the system of NJ right now all show warm core, LOL Seems extratropical to me too darn chill to be tropical. Also no organized convection to speak of, Just a plain ol fall gale with a cold chilly windswept rain.

Does have a nice wind with it though. All beacuse of the strong High to our north its a pressure gradiant wind not storm induced. Should be a fun afternoon as the center starts to pass by.


I agree and I feel the same down here in Jersey. A cold wet windy gale.

Re: Post 1846
Looks like an eye o'head. No buoy update since 1250 GMT. Storm tracks are to WNW to NW so center of Circ. headed towards Cape May. Winds here gusting to 17+ kts @ Bradley Beach to 35kts in Point Pleasant. Both Stations near the beach. High tide also coming. Sand blowing off beach since early pm yesterday.
1904. Bonedog
P451 Im in NJ also =) goofy must be quite a sight down there on the Shore
Any talk on the GOM this morning Storm:W
I agree BT... also the NHC's AOI is down there as well...
1907. Bonedog
quick look at the bouy data does show a surface circ with the NJ system. alot of 35knt gusts and some higher.

Going to be a cold windy rainy day here
1908. Buhdog
Link

looks like some rotation of the swfl coast...any chances here?
1909. IKE
NEW BLOG!
It is a sunny, warm day in Charleston
I just stepped outside to listen to the Bells Tolling.

For all of us, but particularly those of you who lived in New York and family members of those who were lost in the Towers, the Pentagon and aboard the 4 Planes, you are in my heart and prayers.

I thank those who serve in the armed forces of so many countries and have participated in the battle against terrorism.
It is much appreciated.

-Kate
1911. hydrus
Quoting BobinTampa:
Good morning everyone. Always sad thinking back to 8 years ago and what took place. Never forget that day.

I never forget, today just makes it worse..:(




Quoting TampaSpin:

AOI and tropial Update


hmmmmmmm,interesting....