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Fred dying; no immediate danger areas in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:28 PM GMT on September 12, 2009

Tropical Storm Fred has been ripped apart by wind shear, as strong southerly winds of 20 knots have removed all of Fred's heavy thunderstorms, leaving only a naked low-level swirl of clouds. Wind shear of 20 - 40 knots will continue today through Monday, and Fred should dissipate by Sunday night. Due to the continued strong shear expected over Fred the next four days, it is unlikely there will be anything left of the storm to regenerate from once the remains reach an area with moderate wind shear five days from now.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Fred (upper left) appears as a swirl of low-level clouds with no heavy thunderstorm activity in this morning visible satellite image. A new tropical disturbance (right) near the coast of Africa is disorganized, due to 20 - 30 knots of wind shear.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A large tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Thursday is very disorganized. The wave as yet does not have much in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it, and wind shear is high, 20 - 30 knots. By Monday, the shear may drop below 20 knots, allowing some slow development. The GFS model has backed off on its prediction that this wave would develop into a tropical depression.

A low pressure system is over eastern Texas and the adjoining waters along the Texas Gulf of Mexico coast. This low is under high shear, about 25 knots, and is not tropical. Shear is expected to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days. The low should remain non-tropical during this time, but will bring much-needed heavy rains to drought-stricken south Texas. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have occurred over portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana from this low, and flash flood watches have been posted for a large sections of these states.

Over the next few days, we should also be alert for tropical storm development along a frontal zone stretching from the Gulf of Mexico waters offshore the western Florida coast, across the Florida Peninsula, to the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina. However, wind shear will be relatively high in this region, and anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature.


Figure 2. Total rainfall from the Austin, TX radar from the low pressure system over coastal Texas.

Twenty years ago on this date
On September 12, 1989, Tropical Storm Hugo, still far out at sea in the middle Atlantic, continued to grow more organized. Heavy thunderstorms thickened near the storm's center and in four prominent spiral bands. Updrafts from the intense thunderstorms near the storm's core began reaching the base of the stratosphere, creating high cirrus clouds that an upper-level anticyclone over the storm carried away. By nightfall, Hugo had intensified to a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Now three days from the Lesser Antilles Islands, the storm continued to churn westward across the open Atlantic at 20 mph.

At NOAA's Miami-based Office of Aircraft Operations--the hurricane hunting division of NOAA--my boss, Jim McFadden, called me into his office. My fellow flight meteorologist, Jack Parrish, was also there. "We've got a planned two-plane deployment to Barbados on the 14th", Jim told us. "Frankly, if this storm wasn't named after the director of AOML, we wouldn't be going. It doesn't look too impressive right now." (AOML was NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Marine Laboratory, which supervised research flights by NOAA's hurricane hunter aircraft, and Hugo Bezdek was the director). We discussed the possible missions, and agreed that regardless of Hugo's strength, we should be flying it, since we had used up very few of our allotted flight hours for the year. Jack and I would be in charge of coordinating the missions on the two aircraft. It would be my first hurricane flight of what had been a very slow season so far. I was excited to be going to Barbados, an island I had never been to. The as-yet unimpressive Tropical Storm Hugo did not give me any concerns about a possible rough ride.


Figure 3. AVHRR visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Hugo taken on September 12, 1989. Well-developed low-level spiral bands are apparent, and high cirrus clouds denoting upper-level outflow are visible on three sides. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I can't figure out how to make a link on this so mabe a copy and past in your browser will work. It is from wisconsin university so I am pretty sure it is an ok site.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8irn/g8irnjava.html
wow, a cat 3 formed and died east of 35 west Strange
Most of the reliable models still showing a low developing across the SW Atlantic in 4 days. Hard to say whether it will be non-tropical or not.




Meanwhile, Fred reaches very far west in 1 week. It eventually recurves but Bermuda may want to watch incase it does re develop.

Quoting jdjnola:


Interesting, especially how they point out that lightning is normally caused by vertical wind movement and the movement in hurricanes is typically horizontal. I wonder, could the increased lightning activity near the eye be due to hot towers...?


There's a particularly well formed thought...you may well be right!
Dr. Meisner wore a tropical print shirt every Friday at UST which seemed odd as he was always wore a tie to lecture otherwise so we looked forward to Fridays as he was much more relaxed. The guy is a genius but very helpful to me in my 2 years of meteorology study and he taught me a whole lot about tropical meteorology.
Quoting jbryant:
I can't figure out how to make a link on this so mabe a copy and past in your browser will work. It is from wisconsin university so I am pretty sure it is an ok site.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8irn/g8irnjava.html
It is the same as posting a picture, but instead of clicking Image, you click Link
Quoting Nimitz:
I've been watching the radar over Jacksonville, and I see a faint circulation. Is there a separate low over N. Florida?


18Z surface map shows a low east of Jacksonville


509. WAHA
I think a few days ago, there was a tropical system in the meditteranean sea!
Quoting Floodman:


There's a particularly well formed thought...you may well be right!


We had a lot of people who felt they saw flash lightning during Ike in Houston but it was transformers blowing out...this kept the sky lit up with a blue tinge for most of the night and there was the smell of transformer oil.I watched this from the 3rd floor of my home which allowed me to see alot of the weather even though Ike struck over night in the 4th largest city in the USA. I have been in 10 Tropical Storms/ Hurricanes and have experienced lightning maybe once.The NWS report I have from Hurricane Celia in 1970..Corpus Christi, Texas ( my home town ) the NWS meteorologist observes lightning right before the anenometer blows off the at 161 mph
TY H009
Quoting WAHA:
I think a few days ago, there was a tropical system in the meditteranean sea!


LOL....The Meditteranean is beautiful..went there on a cruise October 2008 after Ike . No Hurricanes then thank God.
Quoting WAHA:
I think a few days ago, there was a tropical system in the meditteranean sea!


BUT maybe if I look at enough computer models, radars and satellites ONE will appear!
514. WAHA
Quoting Dennis8:


BUT maybe if I look at enough computer models, radars and satellites ONE will appear!

You're right on the money.
It was very brief, but yes, there was one.
Quoting Dennis8:


We had a lot of people who felt they saw flash lightning during Ike in Houston but it was transformers blowing out...this kept the sky lit up with a blue tinge for most of the night and there was the smell of transformer oil.I watched this from the 3rd floor of my home which allowed me to see alot of the weather even though Ike struck over night in the 4th largest city in the USA. I have been in 10 Tropical Storms/ Hurricanes and have experienced lightning maybe once.The NWS report I have from Hurricane Celia in 1970..Corpus Christi, Texas ( my home town ) the NWS meteorologist observes lightning right before the anenometer blows off the at 161 mph


A lot of times what folks think are transformers blowing..are actually the 2 Hot Lines touching from the Increasing Winds with a Blue Arc and a Loud report.

When a transformers Blows..the flash is usually Yellow tinged,but that can vary from City to City.

On a typical Line set up..you have 2 Hot and a Neutral as the wires shown going to the left here illustrate.

When the 2 Hots touch from winds,they arc and short..


Quoting Patrap:


A lot of times what folks think are transformers blowing..are actually the 2 Hot Lines touching from the Increasing Winds with a Blue Arc and a Loud report.

When a transformers Blows..the flash is usually Yellow tinged,but that can vary from City to City.

On a typical Line set up..you have 2 Hot and a Neutral as the wires shown going to the left here illustrate.

When the 2 Hots touch from winds,they arc and short..




May be.....here in Houston it was transformers blowing. My dad is the Chief electrician for the Corpus Christi Naval air Station..retired 2003..so
Quoting Floodman:


There's a particularly well formed thought...you may well be right!


Im kinda partial to that theory as well Floodman.

The Lightning I observed as K arrived..was High Up..above the Low Swirling East to West curved Flow..and that would have been the NW eyewall around 05:15 CDT here.



Pat... I saw my first ball lightening during Camille... where winds were probably 75-100mph... and then could see bright patches in the NE and E eyewall as she passed over which I also took as lightning...
Quoting Dennis8:


May be.....here in Houston it was transformers blowing. My dad is the Chief electrician for the Corpus Christi Naval air Station..retired 2003..so
o..for BIL.



I dont doubt that at all...As Ive done a Lot of Pole work years ago..

I was just stating what some see,isnt always T's a blowing.
Quoting Patrap:


A lot of times what folks think are transformers blowing..are actually the 2 Hot Lines touching from the Increasing Winds with a Blue Arc and a Loud report.

When a transformers Blows..the flash is usually Yellow tinged,but that can vary from City to City.

On a typical Line set up..you have 2 Hot and a Neutral as the wires shown going to the left here illustrate.

When the 2 Hots touch from winds,they arc and short..




I have a vivd memory of my Dad in 1971 after Hurricane Ceila coming to rep;air our lines first and how lucky we were to get electricity back sooner than some of my friends.

I also remember what you speak of and the lines hitting and "arcing'.

We lost our electricity one year ago today during Ike at 10:45pm
521. WAHA
I thought there was something in the mediterranean! oh there is

Link
Quoting Patrap:
o..for BIL.



I dont that at all...As Ive done a Lot of Pole work years ago..

I was just stating what some see,isnt always T's a blowing.


I got you......hats off to you I am afraid of Heights..did not get teh blue collar gene from my dad.
Interesting feature developing southeast of Bermuda. It's being enhanced some by the upper left low to the southwest, but I wonder?



The KNOLA team will be issuing the eagerly awaited 2nd half of hurricane season forecast. The team has been working hard looking at the data and analyzing model runs plugging the results into our algorhythimic programs. They predicted with remarkable accuracy and were the 1st to predict a below normal season.They correctly predicted the demise of Ana and the recurvature of Bill while they were still invests (check the archives for actual posts). They boldly predicted that there would be no GOM hurricanes this year. This prediction was controversal, and stirred up negative reaction in the orthodox forecasting culture. Erika was correctly forecast to die from shear. The only missed forecast was the unexpected formation of Claudette. They even forecast in August of beneficil rains to Texas from a tropical system in the Gulf. This 2nd half forecast will be offered free to the public will be posted on this website and other blogs and of course the KNOLA weather megablog.

A quick comment on the Gulf low.The KNOLA team does not see any strong tropical system developing. The low should develop subtropical at most.There will continue to be heavy rain throughout the weekend over the Tx/La/Miss Gulf coasts and there has already been local areas of flash floods in SELA. This will be predominately a rain, not a wind event. There will be some coastal flooding however due to the sustained southerly winds.


Hot towers in Hurricane Bonnie, 1998, as imaged by TRMM. The tallest tower here was 18 km (59,000 feet) high, about twice the cruising altitude of a jetliner (Please note that the relative height of the towers has been exaggerated.). The appearance of hot towers is believed to indicate that the hurricane is about to intensify. (image courtesy of NASA

Here is a little note on the largest hot tower ever.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
The KNOLA team will be issuing the eagerly awaited 2nd half of hurricane season forecast. The team has been working hard looking at the data and analyzing model runs plugging the results into our algorhythimic programs. They predicted with remarkable accuracy and were the 1st to predict a below normal season.They correctly predicted the demise of Ana and the recurvature of Bill while they were still invests (check the archives for actual posts). They boldly predicted that there would be no GOM hurricanes this year. This prediction was controversal, and stirred up negative reaction in the orthodox forecasting culture. Erika was correctly forecast to die from shear. The only missed forecast was the unexpected formation of Claudette. They even forecast in August of beneficil rains to Texas from a tropical system in the Gulf. This 2nd half forecast will be offered free to the public will be posted on this website and other blogs and of course the KNOLA weather megablog.

A quick comment on the Gulf low.The KNOLA team does not see any strong tropical system developing. The low should develop subtropical at most.There will continue to be heavy rain throughout the weekend over the Tx/La/Miss Gulf coasts and there has already been local areas of flash floods in SELA. This will be predominately a rain, not a wind event. There will be some coastal flooding however due to the sustained southerly winds.
When are they issuing it???
Quoting whitewabit:
Pat... I saw my first ball lightening during Camille... where winds were probably 75-100mph... and then could see bright patches in the NE and E eyewall as she passed over which I also took as lightning...


Thats very interesting obs..We watched,Dad and I and My Brother, Camille from here in NOLA that Night as my Grandparents Lived off of 90 By Louise's Gift Shop,Blossman Gas..Dad was worried sick they didnt leave.

He was over there the Next Day and fortunately the Pines missed most of the House..

But Katrina pushed 6feet of water thru it in 05,3.5 miles inland.


Notice the water receding Lines..from 29August,Photo from Oct 05 after Gutting.

FPL said in the event of a TC they will cut the power when winds reach 50 mph.
530. jipmg
so many little swirls in the western gulf..

Quoting WAHA:
I think a few days ago, there was a tropical system in the meditteranean sea!


Perhaps subtropical, there have only been one or two confirmed TROPICAL systems in that sea. I think they may only have been subtropical as well, but it certainly is not out of the realm of possibility. Look at where Vince formed and traveled back in '05! Where did you hear this?
532. hercj
In regard to lightening, go to youtube, put in hurricane hunters and watch the video of eyewall penetration by Teal 72 of Hurricane Felix. Cat 5 at the time and lightening is off the charts at eyewall entrance.
Quoting Dennis8:


I have a vivd memory of my Dad in 1971 after Hurricane Ceila coming to rep;air our lines first and how lucky we were to get electricity back sooner than some of my friends.

I also remember what you speak of and the lines hitting and "arcing'.

We lost our electricity one year ago today during Ike at 10:45pm



Many of us were in here Blogging IKE's Impact and we were well,well aware many were in Jeopardy as the water coming was all we yakked and pleaded about.
And getting to Anahuac 9 days later..was a WOW moment .
Pat... Camille was much smaller in size then Katrina thus the higher storm surge...

I would hate to ever see a storm the size of Katrina and the winds of Camille at landfll...
it would be the greatest sorm ever and I truly hope it never happens...anywhere...
536. jipmg
Florida is in for one wet sunday
537. WAHA
Quoting GatorWX:


Perhaps subtropical, there have only been one or two confirmed TROPICAL systems in that sea. I think they may only have been subtropical as well, but it certainly is not out of the realm of possibility. Look at where Vince formed and traveled back in '05! Where did you hear this?

Eumestat website Link
Quoting hercj:
In regard to lightening, go to youtube, put in hurricane hunters and watch the video of eyewall penetration by Teal 72 of Hurricane Felix. Cat 5 at the time and lightening is off the charts at eyewall entrance.




Air Force Hurricane Hunters fly into the eye of Hurricane Felix. Video starts about 20 miles outside of the eye. Red light is gear handle, which comes on when throttles are in idle. For more pictures and info see HurricaneHunters.com
Quoting Hurricane009:
When are they issuing it???
Quoting Dennis8:


I have a vivd memory of my Dad in 1971 after Hurricane Ceila coming to rep;air our lines first and how lucky we were to get electricity back sooner than some of my friends.

I also remember what you speak of and the lines hitting and "arcing'.

We lost our electricity one year ago today during Ike at 10:45pm
Celia was a 1970 storm,I dont need to be judgmental//
we've had lows on forecast maps now for wks. at least we got fred. or do we?
Rainy night in Fl....

Evening all!
New to the "post" side of life, been a learner/lurker for year and a half or two. Wanted to take a minute and say hey.
Live in Tampa Bay, FL area and am ready to start gathering the animals two by two and build an ark!
Quoting swampliliy:
Evening all!
New to the "post" side of life, been a learner/lurker for year and a half or two. Wanted to take a minute and say hey.
Live in Tampa Bay, FL area and am ready to start gathering the animals two by two and build an ark!


haha good evening and welcome!
Thanks much Matt(?) I think it is?
Harry here
545. WAHA
Quoting swampliliy:
Evening all!
New to the "post" side of life, been a learner/lurker for year and a half or two. Wanted to take a minute and say hey.
Live in Tampa Bay, FL area and am ready to start gathering the animals two by two and build an ark!

There is a mediterranean subtropical storm.
no rain here yet in e central fl pt canaveral
That was a crazy great hurricane hunter clip, and I would still love to go for a ride with them.
Quoting swampliliy:
Thanks much Matt(?) I think it is?
Harry here


yeah, you got it right, nice to meet you Harry
Quoting leftovers:
no rain here yet in e central fl pt canaveral

That's because the Shuttle isn't trying to land ;-)
Anything interesting developing in the next 2 weeks.
Quoting PanamaBeach1:
That was a crazy great hurricane hunter clip, and I would still love to go for a ride with them.


Perfect song too.......
Why would the engines be at idle?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Ignore him, he's an idiot and a troll. He's lying, there is no 'data' and there is no KNOLA team. He came out earlier in the year called us all 'wishcasters' and said there would be no more named after Claudette so he has to correct himself every time.
Okay.
Quoting victoria780:
Celia was a 1970 storm,I dont need to be judgmental//
Celia was a bad one.
Where are the wishcasters like Ike. They are in hiding after they wishcast a Gulf of Mexico. Serves him right. When he isn't downcasting storms he's wishcasting Gulf of Mexico disturbances.
This time of year it is important to remain vigilant of the Atlantic, as systems can spin up very quickly.
Quoting jipmg:
so many little swirls in the western gulf..



Better little swirls than big swirls... :)
Quoting Patrap:


whatever is left in the gulf looks to be almost gone.....unless I am missing something?...
Tropics update from desk of non-professional mainly watching football today.

img src="" alt="" />
Quoting TexasHurricane:


whatever is left in the gulf looks to be almost gone.....unless I am missing something?...


At the risk of being accused of wishcasting (snark), don't be so quick to dismiss the Gulf's potential; Claudette formed when the Gulf was a mess of thunderstorms like this.
Quoting WAHA:
I thought there was something in the mediterranean! oh there is

Link


there was a few days ago, it did not appear strong enough to be a TS anyway. but they are similar to azores lows (also never named) and usually are subtropical, or even become fully. Look at the first couple frames

Link
there has not been anything near jamaica in along while look for something near that area with in a few weeks
When will all these troughs stop coming and ridging begin???
Quoting WAHA:

Eumestat website Link


I don't even see any clouds in the Mediterranean Sea.
Special Marine Warning for High Winds and Rain over Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Borgne till 7pm

this things got a nice anticyclone going. would not be surprised to see a popcorn storm here.

As everyone knows, there's been a messy low pressure system hanging over the East Coast for the last few days, with a lot of rain, muddled wind/T-storm activity, beach erosion, etc.

I'm sorry if this has already been asked, but is this activity classified as tropical/subtropical in origin? Or is it just some crud with no warm-core activity? I remember there was some discussion about this topic over the last few days, but I don't recall if there was ever a definite answer.

Sorry if this is a silly question.
Shear is marginal, I say a Subtropical Storm is not out of the picture, surprised we don't have an invest.
Teddy,you've been reported. I am speaking for the team now. We NEVER said there would be no named storm after Claudette. I (Kerry) did and still do feel that there are several who post on this website who want to see hurricane strikes on the U.S. I, nor the team use language such as you use to try and discredit free speech on this site. Our "data" is the same as used by other "experts" here except we come to different conclusions, and we predict CORRECTLY in a much higher %. Our 2nd half forecast will be out next week.
Good evening all...Pat have you seen enough rain yet? I know I have..just got home from a very long day of delivering the mail in the pouring rain...I am wiped out...from the look of things that you posted we are still in for alot of rain over this way as well...you know the saying...the old rain sleet or snow bull...pwersonally I have had quite enough of it...have a good evening
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Teddy,you've been reported. I am speaking for the team now. We NEVER said there would be no named storm after Claudette. I (Kerry) did and still do feel that there are several who post on this website who want to see hurricane strikes on the U.S. I, nor the team use language such as you use to try and discredit free speech on this site. Our "data" is the same as used by other "experts" here except we come to different conclusions, and we predict CORRECTLY in a much higher %. Our 2nd half forecast will be out next week.


NOBODY EVER, EVER ON THIS BLOG WISHES FOR A HURRICANE TO STRIKE THE US! THAT IS SUCH AN IGNORANT POST.
We also need to watch for subtropical or tropical formation near Florida next week. Again, don't downcast the season. 10-12 storms are on the way! .. In my opinion that is.
Quoting winter123:
this things got a nice anticyclone going. would not be surprised to see a popcorn storm here.



There isn't even any rotation, and certainly now low level circulations over water. Obviously a big ULL over TX, and also lots of high shear! There is certainly an abundance of moisture however. I really wouldn't expect anything but rain. Remember Claudette had low shear. Also, I there is no anticyclone, but anticyclonic rotation, ie, high pressure.
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
Good evening all...Pat have you seen enough rain yet? I know I have..just got home from a very long day of delivering the mail in the pouring rain...I am wiped out...from the look of things that you posted we are still in for alot of rain over this way as well...you know the saying...the old rain sleet or snow bull...pwersonally I have had quite enough of it...have a good evening



New Round coming in here..take a Nice Hot Bath,relax and enjoy yer evening over there.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Teddy,you've been reported. I am speaking for the team now. We NEVER said there would be no named storm after Claudette. I (Kerry) did and still do feel that there are several who post on this website who want to see hurricane strikes on the U.S. I, nor the team use language such as you use to try and discredit free speech on this site. Our "data" is the same as used by other "experts" here except we come to different conclusions, and we predict CORRECTLY in a much higher %. Our 2nd half forecast will be out next week.
do you use the same flush model data as stormno just wondering
Quoting Weather456:
Did the NHC drop the ball on Subtropical Storm Grace?


No,..they did what they always do.

The system wasnt tropical in Origin...nor thru all Levels..and Joe B is gonna tell um straight.
I hear hes on a Flight to Miami now.
Quoting Weather456:


I'm confident this was a Subtropical Storm. The NHC is not doing well at all this year with the exception of Bill. Nobody is doing well on this season. It's a tough one!
Quoting Patrap:



New Round coming in here..take a Nice Hot Bath,relax and enjoy yer evening over there.
thanks for the idea...on my way as soon as I get done typing here...you take care over there with all that bad weather and tornado warnings...hope we don't get it as bad....
Quoting winter123:


there was a few days ago, it did not appear strong enough to be a TS anyway. but they are similar to azores lows (also never named) and usually are subtropical, or even become fully. Look at the first couple frames

Link


Just looks like a ULL trying to work its way down to the surface. Given more time, perhaps something may have formed, but it didn't even look like depression strength. That's the Aegean Sea btw, I know, I don't mean to be nit picky, but just to clarify.
591. JLPR


12/2030 UTC 19.8N 122.0E T1.0/1.0 91W -- West Pacific

O_O lol
and what do you think of this huge and impressive invest in the W-pacific xD
Philippines Atmospherical Geopyshical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "NANDO" has maintained its strength after crossing Northern Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
===========================
At 5:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Nando located at 18.7�N 120.0�E or 80 kms northwest of Laoag City has 10 minutes sustained winds of 55 km/h (30 knots).

Warning Signals
================

Warning Signals #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
--------------
1.Babuyan Group
2.Ilocos Norte
3.Ilocos Sur
4.Apayao
5.Kalinga
6.Cagayan
7.Abra
8.Mt. Province

Additional Information
=======================
Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere is now lowered.

This disturbance is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional to frequent rains over Western Visayas and the rest of Luzon. Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
3 unnamed storms and 6 named storms. It's not the quet season people thought it would be, nor is it active. A normal season so far, in storm count that is.
JLPR: Tropical Depression!!! =P
High resolution pic of the non tropical system over Texas

Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
thanks for the idea...on my way as soon as I get done typing here...you take care over there with all that bad weather and tornado warnings...hope we don't get it as bad....


Its Mostly over here,..Lotsa Stuff Over Lake P and east..maybe a new round will fire off later.But its keeping that AC off here and thats always a good thing.
Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1800z 12SEPT)
=========================================

At 3:00 AM JST, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 19.0N 123.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots

---
JMA 3:00 AM JST statement on 91W (Nando)
Quoting Patrap:


Its Mostly over here,..Lotsa Stuff Over Lake P and east..maybe a new round will fire off later.But its keeping that AC off here and thats always a good thing.
I here ya...have a good evening...I am going to get that hot bath you suggested now...lol
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Teddy,you've been reported. I am speaking for the team now. We NEVER said there would be no named storm after Claudette. I (Kerry) did and still do feel that there are several who post on this website who want to see hurricane strikes on the U.S. I, nor the team use language such as you use to try and discredit free speech on this site. Our "data" is the same as used by other "experts" here except we come to different conclusions, and we predict CORRECTLY in a much higher %. Our 2nd half forecast will be out next week.


So, what's the link to your site? I'd like to take a look. And by the way, never heard ofyour "organization". Be careful with all those grammatical errors, people wont take you seriously!
Quoting iceman55:





what does this mean?
Quoting reedzone:


I'm confident this was a Subtropical Storm. The NHC is not doing well at all this year with the exception of Bill. Nobody is doing well on this season. It's a tough one!


How are they not doing well? I think they've done great. What have they missed?
Quoting iceman55:
TexasHurricane on what ?


Your post 599 - map....
Quoting iceman55:
Forecast Precipitation.Snow/Rain/Freezing Rain/Sleet


The one with the brown and green lines?
lots of rain for texas. :) :) :)
Quoting sullivanweather:
Odd anti-cyclonic spin was noted this morning on radar imagery south of Mobile, Al.



hmm...

There is no way that can be upward motion. Perhaps it is a mesoscale anticyclone embedded within the downdraft.

Then again...there are anticyclonic tornadoes.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
do you use the same flush model data as stormno just wondering
No, we don't use stormno's data or models. He was warning of a hurricane in the Gulf yesterday and scaring the bejesus out of newbies yesterday.Since you are "TheKeeper" I won't question your motives, but would ask you and other critics to check out my predictions in the blog archives as to their accuracy and date, and then comment on my forecasting and my team's skills.
620. 789
Quoting futuremet:


hmm...

There is no way that can be upward motion. Perhaps it is a mesoscale anticyclone embedded within the downdraft.

Then again...there are anticyclonic tornadoes.
good evening whats up
Chances of rain are supposed to decease on Sunday. ULL supposed to pull off to NE and not sure how the LL low was supposed to do but it did enhance ULL. But SE of ULL is know void of convection. while we got lots of ran we didn’t get enough in water supply zones. Need to wait for hydro data.
Im Uptown in NOLA,..How does one get on the,er..Team?

Do I need a Agent..?
Iceman

Albeit SSTs will be anomalously high in the SW Caribbean in October, the CFS is still expecting wind shear values to be about 3kts above average. The models still seem to be forecasting a possible positive MJO for October, which might cancel out the shear. Convective activity at the surface tend to favor upper-anticyclone formation at the upper levels, which ventilates the upper air and decreases wind shear. Now, that solely depends on how strong the MJO will be.
Patrap- Evening Sir! How are ya?
Kerry, your "team" sounds interesting.

How can I join?
when are the troughs supposed to stop coming???
Quoting swampliliy:
Patrap- Evening Sir! How are ya?


Please,.no "Sir"

Im may be Old,but I was an enlisted man and worked for a Living as you well know..

LOL

We fine here,,.watching football and NASCAR and here too
Quoting Hurricane009:
when are the troughs supposed to stop coming???


haha. what trough? The northern jet is way in canada and the southern jet is just nonexistant so these systems are just stalled over the USA and Atlantic. In fact, the upper low over the western states is moving west.
Satellite image loop of the hybrid system from yesterday. Notice the spiral bands that flowed inwards into the system. The present of these indicated that a subtropical cyclone may have formed yesterday.

More

Quoting Hurricane009:
when are the troughs supposed to stop coming???


May..right around the time the SAL will kick up...
Quoting winter123:


haha. what trough? The northern jet is way in canada and the southern jet is just nonexistant so these systems are just stalled over the USA and Atlantic. In fact, the upper low over the western states is moving west.
yay!!
Quoting Patrap:
Im Uptown in NOLA,..How does one get on the,er..Team?

Do I need a Agent..?
Pat, you've posted that alarming satellite picture of Gustav, Hanna, Ike, and Josephine one too many times. Seriously there are no openings at present on the team, but if there are I will give strong consideration to you,
A fellow Who Dat.
637

Who are the members of your "team"?
Quoting Patrap:


Please,.no "Sir"

Im may be Old,but I was an enlisted man and worked for a Living as you well know..

LOL

We fine here,,.watching football and NASCAR and here too

Heh-heh- sorry- old habit. Same here- no stars or bars.
Watching rain and this sand box here. ;-)
Later
332
TCNA21 RJTD 130000
CCAA 13000 47644 CHOI-WAN(0914) 18160 11500 13244 225// 93013=

0:00 AM UTC September 13 2009
TS CHOI-WAN (T0914)[System #18]
16.0N 150.0E
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Quoting iceman55:
UPDATE BY:Jim Williams... Fred has been downgraded to a remnant low in the east Atlantic . The system will be watched for regeneration over the next week or so as some models try to redevelop it in the weatern basin.
So far two of my high threat locations have been hit by a named storm but none of my very high threat areas have been affected. On my predictions page you will see both Destin/Ft Walton and Guadeloupe both highlighted in yellow as hits for 2009. Also my weekly predictions have been my best to date with a subjective rating of 86.07% . We have a long way to go yet this season and I have a feeling the worst is yet to come.


How would one see those predictions you speak of?
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Pat, you've posted that alarming satellite picture of Gustav, Hanna, Ike, and Josephine one too many times. Seriously there are no openings at present on the team, but if there are I will give strong consideration to you,
A fellow Who Dat.


The pic served a Purpose every time,..as Many think..or were thinking that Having 2-3-4 Systems in the Basin was weird or Different, I used the Image shown here again..as a Visual Aid for Learning.

Sorry you found it er,..unworthy, but I row my own boat. Always Have,..always will..here.

Atlantic Basin 2 Sept 2008




More Patrap Images here,for your viewing Pleasure as well.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
No, we don't use stormno's data or models. He was warning of a hurricane in the Gulf yesterday and scaring the bejesus out of newbies yesterday.Since you are "TheKeeper" I won't question your motives, but would ask you and other critics to check out my predictions in the blog archives as to their accuracy and date, and then comment on my forecasting and my team's skills.


I tried, not working for me...
evening Hey, does anyone on this board tonight believe the strong complex of showers to my West and North will stay together together and hit the lower Keys?
Quoting futuremet:
637

Who are the members of your "team"?
I've explained this before, and it's all in the archives. They are friends and associates much like yourself, who share a passion in the weather and especially in givng realistic forecasts and opinions on the tropics. We don't have any official credentials, like 99% of the posters on this blog.

And Pat, NOT THAT PICTURE AGAIN!!!
Quoting Patrap:


The pic served a Purpose every time,..as Many think..or were thinking that Having 2-3-4 Systems in the Basin was weird or Different, I used the Image shown here again..as a Visual Aid for Learning.

Sorry you found it er,..unworthy, but I row my own boat. Always Have,..always will..here.

Atlantic Basin 2 Sept 2008




More Patrap Images here,for your viewing Pleasure as well.


Tahts a cool pic
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I've explained this before, and it's all in the archives. They are friends and associates much like yourself, who share a passion in the weather and especially in givng realistic forecasts and opinions on the tropics. We don't have any official credentials, like 99% of the posters on this blog.

And Pat, NOT THAT PICTURE AGAIN!!!



Old Habit..LOL
649. P451
WV Loops ending 2345Z/745ET



Quoting Patrap:


Please,.no "Sir"

Im may be Old,but I was an enlisted man and worked for a Living as you well know..

LOL

We fine here,,.watching football and NASCAR and here too


I was raised in a time that did not distinguish between those who "had", from those who busted their butts. People who deserved respect were called "sir", as were all of my elders. You, sir, deserve respect for all the knowledge you bring here. I think we could gain much if we brought back a modicum of that respect. Your service to our country is enough to deserve a "sir". I thank you!
Any one have a Hot Towers video?
Quoting InTheCone:


I was raised in a time that did not distinguish between those who "had", from those who busted their butts. People who deserved respect were called "sir", as were all of my elders. You, sir, deserve respect for all the knowledge you bring here. I think we could gain much if we brought back a modicum of that respect. Your service to our country is enough to deserve a "sir". I thank you!


Why thats very,very Kind..and a Big thank you from me to you and your's as well.

We all contribute..each in our own way.
Could this be a Fujiwhara Effect??
Much of Texas picked up several inches of rain today

One Image I always find interesting,but I cant find comparative years to go with it.

Quoting Patrap:


Why thats very,very Kind..and a Big thank you from me to you and your's as well.

We all contribute..each in our own way.


You are very welcome, and much appreciated by many here!
anyone comment on what the western caribbean in particular my coordinates can expect in terms of weather tomorrow?
Thanks!
642. Patrap 12:24 AM GMT on September 13, 2009

Please don't stop with your images and reminders. It is easy to get complacent, easy to forget. Many times your reminds have made me stop and think. It may be quiet now, but what if????

650. futuremet 12:33 AM GMT on September 13, 2009

LOL.. can I take that cutie home?
Link

what do you think Key west bound?
661. P451
Quoting Patrap:


The pic served a Purpose every time,..as Many think..or were thinking that Having 2-3-4 Systems in the Basin was weird or Different, I used the Image shown here again..as a Visual Aid for Learning.

Sorry you found it er,..unworthy, but I row my own boat. Always Have,..always will..here.

Atlantic Basin 2 Sept 2008




More Patrap Images here,for your viewing Pleasure as well.


Every time you post this I think of the 1995 parade of storms.



And off to the lower right is (if I recall correctly!) Karen and then Luis (neither yet formed/named at that time).

This talks about both instances.

662. P451
That is one nasty looking radar image!

664. flsky
Quoting futuremet:
Kerry, your "team" sounds interesting.

How can I join?


You're doing quite fine on your own.
Quoting iceman55:
LPStormspotter go to http://www.hurricanecity.com/


WOW!!! great job.. really im gonna save that in my fav's
Quoting P451:
That is one nasty looking radar image

it looks ominoous though it seems most time these systems break down before hitting Key West
Quoting P451:
That is one nasty looking radar image!


Agreed! And if you think it looks nasty from the sky, you should be looking straight up at it like I am!! ;-)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (T0914)
9:00 AM JST September 13 2009
=========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon near Marianas

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Choi-wan (998 hPa) located at 16.0N 150.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving west-northwest at 10 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in east quadrant
200 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.1N 147.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 18.5N 145.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 19.8N 142.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
I remember 1995.. that was the year I stopped tracking storms. I couldn't keep up. I had software on my computer but you had to manually input the co-ordinates. And you could only get the co-ordinates if you actually caught the tropical update on TWC.. Boy things have changed. Now that same software will get the coordinates for you, and you can watch the storm in (mostly) realtime. OH now I'm feeling old again..
670. P451
Quoting cyclonekid:
Could this be a Fujiwhara Effect??


No where near close enough.

Plus for that effect to take place both systems need to be much closer - AND - be moving in tandem northward. They can't be moving in a parade/train if you will. They can't be moving in opposite directions or towards each other.

A very crude illustration on what happens. VERY CRUDE LOL.



gez!- (got ta keep it g-rated on this site) you look like ya just got hammered with more rain coming off to your West - quoting swamplily
1995



Not one CV storm made it to the CONUS..
My thoughts....JMO
Quoting iceman55:
LPStormspotter he real good .


Yes your right i was quite suprised. So who is this person.. Jim?
evening - been out all day. Um, what is going on in the GOM???? I mean, yeah I see the rain, etc... but....is there an LLC or what?
Hey there KW!
It's been a wet few hours- you've been there I'm sure! We get that "Tampa Rain Train" thing going now and then- this is a NOW. ;-)
Quoting P451:


No where near close enough.

Plus for that effect to take place both systems need to be much closer - AND - be moving in tandem northward. They can't be moving in a parade/train if you will. They can't be moving in opposite directions or towards each other.

A very crude illustration on what happens. VERY CRUDE LOL.





Ok...even though that pic is SO confusing to me...but...ok...=)
Quoting iceman55:
cyclonekid mm o rreally


...
I'm off...Blog save everyone.
Quoting Patrap:
1995



Not one CV storm made it to the CONUS..
Now thats my kind of year!!
Quoting Patrap:
1995



Not one CV storm made it to the CONUS..
Only half way through the season though.
Hurricane009, I got disconnected again on Tropics Chat. Sorry about that. I'm back on.
iceman...u got mail
Quoting iceman55:
Link


go here LPStormspotter


cool thx
My blob watching instincts brings me here. Literally 0 shear on this, since its just east of the east coast gale.




edit: its in the top left of this image. thanks p451

Quoting swampliliy:
Hey there KW!
It's been a wet few hours- you've been there I'm sure! We get that "Tampa Rain Train" thing going now and then- this is a NOW. ;-)
Yeah It's always good to have a Train of storms once in awhile.

We might get it- probably not though. The fronts often peter out before hitting the Keys
Nice talking to you KW- gonna make a sandwich and a White Russian (not necesarily in that order though!)
Talk to ya later!
Quoting winter123:
My blob watching instincts brings me here. Literally 0 shear on this, since its just east of the east coast gale.


QS for your AOI (Area of Instinct)
Wow, we've received a whole .01" of rain in the last ten days here (the .01" has been tonight). Please tell me this system is going to give us some decent rain tomorrow with the daytime heating?
Good evening.
Good looking AOI in the middle of the Atlantic.

Note: It's at the top left.
WOW blog died?? Can you hear me now?
the fction model has a tropical storm forming off swest florida in 24 hours then stalling this senareo wouldnt be good the area has already seen 3-6 inches off rain in the last 24 hours
Water levels at some rivers, reservoirs and creeks have had modest increase due to the non tropical low...though they remain below conservation levels.

704. hercj
It appears a circulation is forming off Jax Fl
Quoting hercj:
It appears a circulation is forming off Jax Fl


image??
Quoting winter123:


image??


Don't see it here ... ????

Link
Good evening. How are the tropics tonight? Lots of rain here in SoFla..Looks like more over night.
Quoting docrod:


Don't see it here ... ????

Link


nah, its just some turning in the atmoshpere. I'd expect a low west of FL maybe. Look at the satellite of jacksonville, its nothing...

The pattern has definitely changed, as far as steering currents. This could get interesting.



Quoting winter123:


nah, its just some turning in the atmoshpere. I'd expect a low west of FL maybe. Look at the satellite of jacksonville, its nothing...



thanks ... good eve
ice ice iceman... Good evening..
Quoting iceman55:
hihihi
Hey.
blog is dead! There's no named storms but that doesnt mean there's not unnamed features to analyze. Season is over, NEXT. But oh wait, the system over the north central atlantic looks like it has an eye! Time to eat crow. (And drink cheap beer)

/parody
iceman - what's your take on the GOM at the moment?
Winter - Schlitz and Crow go good together...
723. JLPR
Fred's remnant low is drifting west now and after looking at the steering image, I expect a SW turn soon

Quoting Dakster:
Winter - Schlitz and Crow go good together...


eh.. I'm drinking Genesee, it's cheaper because it's close... Rochester, NY. Quite good though. Unfortunately I do not have crow.
iceman - lower shear in the GOM...

Winter - Sounds good to me... You just said cheap beer so I picked the cheapest one I could think of.
727. JLPR
looking better
Quoting Dakster:
iceman - lower shear in the GOM...

Winter - Sounds good to me... You just said cheap beer so I picked the cheapest one I could think of.


I just looked it up, i'd have to drive about 45 mins to find a store that has that. Genesee is about a 2 minute drive. Hmm... Genesee is even cheaper than Keystone here, and tastes a lot better.
Quoting iceman55:
fred not dead yet he have 8 lives left lol haha


LOL. I have a gut feeling he will reform, probably in like 3 days, when it hits a pocket of lower shear.
734. JLPR
im thinking fred has a chance of reviving if it manages to go SW a little into warmer waters and lower shear
Quoting Weather456:
now comes the cold front
I wouldn't buy or drink Schlitz malt liquor..

I'll try Genesee the next time I go to the liquor store. I almost bought a $10 beer, yes ONE beer, the other day before I came to my senses...

Quoting Dakster:
I wouldn't buy or drink Schlitz malt liquor..

I'll try Genesee the next time I go to the liquor store. I almost bought a $10 beer, yes ONE beer, the other day before I came to my senses...



But i don't know if you can get it wherever you are? I've bought a 9 dollar beer at a concert venue before, but it was a pretty big cup...
Quoting Weather456:

The Texas storm reminds me of Allison from 2001.
Quoting Ameister12:

The Texas storm reminds me of Allison from 2001.


yes, however it is non-tropical, and will not become tropical anytime soon because it has stalled over texas.
ghost of fred


looks like shear is favorable for developement in most of GOM!
Quoting Ameister12:

The Texas storm reminds me of Allison from 2001.


Not at all... at least not if you went through it
Quoting Weather456:
Water levels at some rivers, reservoirs and creeks have had modest increase due to the non tropical low...though they remain below conservation levels.



Yeah, I've been watching Lake Travis.


It's nice to see the level going up for a change.

The circulation that has seemed to be centered over Austin seems to have moved north now. Now it seems to be centered over the north part of Burnet County, although it's difficult to say for sure.
Evening..1 year ago tonight in Houston, Texas at my home 3 miles north downtown Houston the electricity was going to go out at 10:45 pm. Transformers had begun to b low and the first heavy drops of rain fell with the " ocean smell' from Hurricane Ike onto my lawn. This would be my 10th Tropical Storm/Hurricane on the Texas Coast.The Davis barometer read 29.30" before going to battery. I observed winds at 40-50 mph and gusty. The Hobby Airport ( 15 miles south ) was 38 gusting to 52 mph at 9:45 pm. My barometer would bottom at 28.38" at 4:56 am as Ike's eye passed just east of my home and downtown Houston, Texas.
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Wow, we've received a whole .01" of rain in the last ten days here (the .01" has been tonight). Please tell me this system is going to give us some decent rain tomorrow with the daytime heating?


Where is "here"?
Quoting winter123:


But i don't know if you can get it wherever you are? I've bought a 9 dollar beer at a concert venue before, but it was a pretty big cup...


Ummm. Maybe. We have some pretty good speciality stores around here. If not, I will keep it in mind the next time I drive to the Northeast.

Concerts are one thing, this was in a store and was 8 ounces. I asked if it came with a happy ending.
755. JLPR
looking more interesting
Ike would be the second strongest Hurricane for me. Hurricane Celia in 1970 while in my hometown of Corpus Christi would damage 80% of the buildings. The anenometeor blew off the Corpus airport at 161 mph and this hurricane sparked my lifelong interest in weather and hurricanes.
JLPR - Nice big red blob in the northeast corner of that photo over land too! It probably won';t hold itself together to get over water, but interesting nonetheless.
Hi Everyone.

Loop
55W, 30N Has a little spin to it.



Quoting iceman55:
stormsurge39 YEP LOW SHEER AND PRESSURE Falling
What is the pressure SW of FL. in the GOM? Upper level winds are 5 to 10mph.
wheres the upper low over texas going to move? we are water logged here in New Orleans
So far the Non Tropical Low has brought .42" rain to my home in Houston that is Monday 9-7 through right now.......

Allison brought 20 plus inches on that Friday night from 9 pm until dawn to my home. I stayed up all night calling in by the hour reports to ANC 13 and the NWS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
803 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BROAD UPPER LEVEL
LOW CIRCULATION OVER C TX TONIGHT. ONLY ISO SHOWERS REMAIN OVER
SE TX IF ANY WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY WEST OF THE REGION. BACKED
OFF POPS A LITTLE BIT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY TREND WHICH MAY OR
MAY NOT CONTINUE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IF THE UPPER LOW MOVES
TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
JET STREAKS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW TO ROTATE THROUGH AND
KICK OFF STRONGER CONVECTION. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE FOR NOW BUT MAY BUMP UP HIGHER SHOULD MORE NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY DEVELOP OUT WEST AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SE TX. OTHERWISE
THINK SE TX WILL SEE LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ONLY ISO THUNDERSTORMS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW BUT HINGES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW. UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.
Quoting stormsurge39:
looks like shear is favorable for developement in most of GOM!


what?? I thought it was unfavorable.... are they expecting anything to develop now?
Quoting iceman55:
stormsurge39 .check http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/WestGulf.shtml
Thanks
770. Relix
Quoting JLPR:
looking more interesting



Too far north IMO. =P
By midnight a year ago I called my contact at the NWS Houston as I had been without electricity for over 2 hours w/ only radio . He informed me that I would be in the outer eyewall of Ike by 2 :30am. It was then 2:15 am. At 2:25 all hell broke loose at my townhome 3 miles north of downtown Houston. The winds were sustained 60-70 mph and gusting to 90 mph from that time until 7 am. The rain sounded like Hail hitting my windows..esp the 3rd floor of my home. My wireless rain gage measured 10.35 " rain from 2:30- 7 am and that is not talking into account wind AND the fence the measuring cup was on was blown at an angle at some point ( but not all the way down).
There is still a yellow circle around the gulf... If it turns to red then I would look out..
On Thursday they found the skeletal remains of a beloved grandfather who died in Ike's storm surge on Bolivar Island trying to escape 1 year ago. They interviewed his 2 Godsons on Houston news. The boys were tore up. It was so sad. Lets hope for LOTS of wind shear in the Gulf and throughout the tropics.
Is something trying to get its act together W of the Keys in the GOM? More of a question than an observation.
hey iceman post 747 Where exactly is that graph for in laymans terms please????
I have Bachelor of Science Degree in Meteorology and and Certification in Broadcast Meteorology. I studied w/ Dr. Bernard Meisner at University of St. Thomas 1987-1990.

I enjoy watching the blogs here and seeing how close anyone come to reality of analysis .

I am little rusty as I am retired and it is a hobby but it is fun to pull out my thermodynamics and watch the boys on here play weather
In 1967 after Hurrican Beulah hit the skies were Green my dad says..I was only 5 years old but remember the flooding. Beulah was the 1st of my 10 Tropical Cyclones.
Quoting iceman55:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/WestGulf.shtml go they
Do you see any possible developement in the SE GOM?
785. JLPR
Quoting Relix:



Too far north IMO. =P


and? xD it is interesting
Quoting Brillig:


Yeah, I've been watching Lake Travis.


It's nice to see the level going up for a change.

The circulation that has seemed to be centered over Austin seems to have moved north now. Now it seems to be centered over the north part of Burnet County, although it's difficult to say for sure.
That is nothing we still have big problem, all the rain was east of lakes.
790. JLPR
Quoting iceman55:
GFS 00 UTC come out now


and at 66hrs it is very interesting with a low forming at a very low lat to the SW of the CVs
791. Relix
Quoting JLPR:


and? xD it is interesting


I ignore those =P
792. JLPR
Quoting Relix:


I ignore those =P


that's no fun lol

I like to follow them even if they stay away xD
We did a little better in brazos basin, my water comes from here. But we needed 20 feet, we got that and more in 2007.

thank you iceman I have only been lurking here for a little over a year and just started asking questions because I am finally starting to figure out what you guys are all talking about. But still have a long way to go on how to find things and sometimes I cant tell what exactly or where the graphs are showing. That was really helpful to realize that was data from just one bouy and then following your hint where to go look being able to see where the bouy was. Thanks for taking the time to show me what you were talking about!!!
Quoting Dakster:
I wouldn't buy or drink Schlitz malt liquor..

I'll try Genesee the next time I go to the liquor store. I almost bought a $10 beer, yes ONE beer, the other day before I came to my senses...

It's Guiness
Where on Land?
Quoting iceman55:
I guess we'll have to wait and see


wait and see what?
802. BA
non-stop wish/fear -casting in here the past week for the GOM

looking at the experts... i.e. NHC. Dr. Masters, etc etc... calm, cool, collective and right on
Quoting Ameister12:

The Texas storm reminds me of Allison from 2001.
??????????
Quoting iceman55:
TexasHurricane low by cv


Hi Ice, Tex, everyone. Hmmm? No BT tonight. Lol. Just a quick stop to say hi and thanks for all the help with the models and local updates and everything. So looks like the threat is over with for Texas right now. Good news. :)
Genesee Beer was first brewed in 1819...
We've lost the GOM moisture in the ULL over central Texas. This was forecasted. While we had some isolated extreme amounts, and general drought type ending amounts last couple of days 2-4 inches our water supply was the loser. But we are far less concerned about October irrigation and restrictions we may still be under. I would have been happy with 1/2 inch so all is well.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Hi Ice, Tex, everyone. Hmmm? No BT tonight. Lol. Just a quick stop to say hi and thanks for all the help with the models and local updates and everything. So looks like the threat is over with for Texas right now. Good news. :)


Hi Homeless...
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Hi Ice, Tex, everyone. Hmmm? No BT tonight. Lol. Just a quick stop to say hi and thanks for all the help with the models and local updates and everything. So looks like the threat is over with for Texas right now. Good news. :)


Haven't seen you on here today...you must have out playing in that torrential amount of rain we had... LOL.. :)
Hey y'all. Took all day to get ths puter up and running. Still don't know if it's debugged or not. IE still freezing up. So I guess I'll call it a night. Thanks again. :)

Oh and if its easier you can call me Stef. StormW outed me on the blog anyway. Lol. Y'all have a good one. :)
am here hi iceman,homelesswanderer and texashurricane
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Hey y'all. Took all day to get ths puter up and running. Still don't know if it's debugged or not. IE still freezing up. So I guess I'll call it a night. Thanks again. :)

Oh and if its easier you can call me Stef. StormW outed me on the blog anyway. Lol. Y'all have a good one. :)


see ya later...
Quoting btwntx08:
am here hi iceman,homelesswanderer and texashurricane


Hi btwntx08...
Quoting BA:
non-stop wish/fear -casting in here the past week for the GOM

looking at the experts... i.e. NHC. Dr. Masters, etc etc... calm, cool, collective and right on
Unfortunalely the knowledgeable Regulars are probably taking a break tonight and Were on from time to time today and most of the week because not much is happening probably lurking in the background analysing and popping in from time to time If You frequent this blog You know the Reliable Ones The Knowledgeable Regular neither wishcasts or fishcasts and does anaylsis of the
Data before He or She posts. Check back later If
something of interest occurs I'm sure They will post it
so what are models picking up this time
Quoting btwntx08:
so what are models picking up this time
Possibles not probables you have to analyse them not just hinge on one or two

this area here north of the florida keys needs to be watch for possible development as shear is this area has decreased to around 5-10 kts so i would look here for development
823. JRRP
The Perfect Storm
Quoting btwntx08:

this area here north of the florida keys needs to be watch for possible development as shear is this area has decreased to around 5-10 kts so i would look here for development
Thanks, I had mentioned this earlier, it looks like its trying to do something now!
Gonna leave the blog to the ametures have fun kiddies
Quoting tropics21:
Gonna leave the blog to the ametures have fun kiddies

am 19 1/2 son am adult haha
823 thst will unlikely that will happen its at the 384 hr it will change next run
Doppler radar precipitation estimates indicate around 6-8 inches offshore coastal Louisiana. Good thing these rains did not spread inland.
Quoting iceman55:
btwntx08 u make me feel old shi

lolol
brb in 30 min
839. JRRP
Quoting btwntx08:
823 thst will unlikely that will happen its at the 384 hr it will change next run

Exactly it is just one run
me largo de aqui
840. BA
Quoting tropics21:
Unfortunalely the knowledgeable Regulars are probably taking a break tonight and Were on from time to time today and most of the week because not much is happening probably lurking in the background analysing and popping in from time to time If You frequent this blog You know the Reliable Ones The Knowledgeable Regular neither wishcasts or fishcasts and does anaylsis of the
Data before He or She posts. Check back later If
something of interest occurs I'm sure They will post it


yep, I've been here many years, I live a block from the beach so I always stay up to date on the tropics, was just kind of typing out loud because I'm sure new ppl could easily get alarmed by some of the stuff posted
841. BA
Quoting JRRP:
The Perfect Storm


I hope they are finished filming "Swords" on Discovery :)
The blob NW of the keys LOOKS intense. Also Accuweather has a L pointed in that direction on thier hurricane site! Probably nothin, but it looks Bad---A
The yellow circle has changed shape again in the GOM...

I think everyone left.....hmmmmmm. Check in tomorrow.
me too im out
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (T0914)
15:00 PM JST September 13 2009
=========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon near Marianas

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Choi-wan (996 hPa) located at 15.8N 149.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving west-southwest at 7 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in east quadrant
200 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.1N 146.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 18.6N 144.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 20.0N 141.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
For those interested in tropical weather links, I just created a new website that I'm sure you'll enjoy. CaneFever Let me know what you think :~)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION "19"
15:00 PM JST September 13 2009
=========================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 19.3N 118.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 11 knots

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 20.1N 115.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Looks like a lot of shear. Will that allow farther development?

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION "19"
15:00 PM JST September 13 2009
=========================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 19.3N 118.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 11 knots

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 20.1N 115.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting peejodo:
Looks like a lot of shear. Will that allow farther development?



Well, yeah...anything over 15 knots will slow or impede intensification and anythinfg over 20 will start to break the storm up
2003 Tropical Storm Grace
Today Sun 15:00 EST
Sydney, Australi
Wind: WNW at 13kph gusts:26kph
temp:32.5 dew point:-4.4
feels like: 30.0
Relative humidity 9%
11 degrees above average
Good Morning -- so the question that churned in my mind last night..has there ever been a yellow circle that large in the gulf b/4?

Aurasurf Report - Gulf Coast SRQ
Still a chance for ridable surf on Sunday as low pressure stays anchored in the gulf. I'm thinking thigh high in the am.
858. jpsb
Quoting AussieStorm:
2003 Tropical Storm Grace
There seems to be a persistence flare up in the central GoM, is that anything?
morning
there is still an impressive circulation with the remnants of FRED
Quoting TexasHurricane:
The yellow circle has changed shape again in the GOM...



They may as well just cover the GOM in yellow crayon
Quoting jpsb:
There seems to be a persistence flare up in the central GoM, is that anything?


It's a wave maker presently : )
Best Case Scenario/my wishcasting
after all the FL surfers are satisfied, it should immediately dissipate, disintegrate and not cause a bit of trouble -
QS of EATL disturbance. seems to be following remnants of Fred


Link
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


They may as well just cover the GOM in yellow crayon


It's hurricane season. Effectively, everytime from June (well in fact, middle of May really) to early December, the whole basin has been scribbled over with a yellow crayon...
I loved all the previous posts of - "Oh, it's going to be like Hurricane X, Tropical Storm Y, or Hurricane Z!'

Have you ever seen a track similar to this? It's a rarity.

Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


They may as well just cover the GOM in yellow crayon
bite your tounge IWC.

:)
866. IKE
I'm anxiously awaiting that copy and paste tropical weather outlook. From looking at models, I don't see much the next 10 days. Maybe a system in the east Atlantic, but it probably never makes it all the way across the Atlantic.

78 days left.
105th day today.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Today Sun 15:00 EST
Sydney, Australi
Wind: WNW at 13kph gusts:26kph
temp:32.5 dew point:-4.4
feels like: 30.0
Relative humidity 9%
11 degrees above average

Summer is on its way AussieStorm...Hope you don't get those fires again....ever
MJO forecast:



Much less bullish than it was, which is good. Still expect a couple more storms yet easily. GFS is about the same, but the CFS is its usual self.
After a week of wishcasting, I see its back to downcasting.....hmmm and kinda confuse.
871. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF MEXICO HAS MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FRED...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 625 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE
REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
all it takes this time of yr is 6 hrs for a change abc's getting a few showers this morning?
873. IKE
At least the NHC gave us a nice round yellow circle in the western GOM as a going away present. Now that it's moved inland it will be dropped on the next TWO...

Quoting peejodo:

Summer is on its way AussieStorm...Hope you don't get those fires again....ever


It's already started

Batemans Bay (Guerilla Bay) Fire Fire Update 13/09/09 17:22
Posted: 13/09/2009
Fire fighters have been working on a fire in the Guerilla Bay area, where several properties were under threat this afternoon.

Firefiighters provided property protection to 30 homes in Shaw Place at Guerilla Bay, with no losses. Firefighters will continue to work behind these homes and along George Bass Drive to mop up and patrol the fire.

The fire continues to burn in bush land along the marine cliff edge and to the west of George Bass Drive, under milder weather conditions.

Eurobodalla (Dromedary Fire) Fire Update 13/09/09 18:22
Posted: 13/09/2009
Firefighters continue to work towards containment of the Dromedary Fire that broke containment lines earlier today.

Crews from the NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS), National Parks and Wildlife Service (NPWS) and Forest NSW (FNSW) were supported by waterbombing aircraft today as they continued to work on this fire which has been burning for a number of weeks.

Waterbombing aircraft were used to successfully conduct property protection on one remote property to the north east of the fire near the Mount Dromedary Walking Trail.

There is no current threat to property and firefighters will continue to mop up and patrol containment lines throughout the evening.

Residents in and around the Mount Dromedary Walking Trail are advised to monitor their properties for any ember attack or small spot fires which may affect the area.

plus 19 other fires around the state.
Quoting Cotillion:
I loved all the previous posts of - "Oh, it's going to be like Hurricane X, Tropical Storm Y, or Hurricane Z!'

Have you ever seen a track similar to this? It's a rarity.



Forgot its lunch? Had to turn around on the way to work and go get it?
Quoting IKE:
At least the NHC gave us a nice round yellow circle in the western GOM as a going away present. Now that it's moved inland it will be dropped on the next TWO...


Perfecto -- I got my waves, Texas got needed rain.... and now...... the yellow circle in the GOM shall disappear.....
I'm out-- Neptune is tapping his foot : )
low amplitude wave moving into the southern windwards is kind of interesting. banding. yesterday there was not much alittle more this morning. worth watching in that it may be the one to get into the nw carib.
878. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA TO A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 28N96W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW TO S TEXAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO TEXAS WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE
FROM THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST TO NE MEXICO BY WED AND FROM
NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU.



SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHTER THAN NORMAL TRADES AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK.



Holy Thunderstorm Batman!

Wow wt heck is going on??? Sounds worse than it looks on radar.
Sorry. Good morning. It just came a shake ya out of your bed gullywasher. I think its quieted enough to hear myself think.


a SAL-icane at 17 N x 35 W ------------------------------------------------------^
882. P451
4 Hour WV Loop - Ending 745ET



90 Hour WV Loop

883. P451
Quoting BA:
non-stop wish/fear -casting in here the past week for the GOM

looking at the experts... i.e. NHC. Dr. Masters, etc etc... calm, cool, collective and right on


Except for a few who either do it on purpose to annoy - or that are just starting to understand the tropics and don't yet know what to look for when it comes to development or lack there of - I don't see this Wish/Doom casting that a number of users speak about.

Early on the Gulf looked prime, the models were hinting at development (as did Africa) and people were suggesting we were going to see some activity.

Since then both regions have become hostile and it's perfectly normal to see people go the other way in their opinions - now saying there won't be anything to watch for some time.

Not sure what some folks want to read on here...or why they label those opinions as they do.

884. P451
Quoting AussieStorm:
Today Sun 15:00 EST
Sydney, Australi
Wind: WNW at 13kph gusts:26kph
temp:32.5 dew point:-4.4
feels like: 30.0
Relative humidity 9%
11 degrees above average


Dry as a bone! I know low humidity is nice...but you know, 30% would be nice. 9%? That can't be pleasant...is it?
Definitely better than last year this time. But I think Mother Natures letting us know she's out there still. Yes Ma'am. We hear you. Lol.

IN THE MEANTIME...LOBES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND
THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...SETTING OFF SEVERAL BURSTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL A MAJOR
CONCERN TODAY...AS IS THE SLIM CHANCE OF A WEAK/SHORT LIVED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. CONTINUED TO
UNDERCUT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER.

886. IKE
Freddie got a shearing haircut and when he did, the dust infested him.

Now he looks like a doughnut and it's making me think of heading to Wal-Mart for a batch of chocolate covered doughnuts........

Where's a Krispy Kreme when you need one?
887. P451
Quoting leftovers:
low amplitude wave moving into the southern windwards is kind of interesting. banding. yesterday there was not much alittle more this morning. worth watching in that it may be the one to get into the nw carib.


12 Hour IR Loop - Satellite disruption is 4 hours long (note the jump in the loop).

Quoting P451:


Dry as a bone! I know low humidity is nice...but you know, 30% would be nice. 9%? That can't be pleasant...is it?

we have a total fire ban here in Greater Sydney.
ATM there is 21 bush fires in the NSW
Quoting BA:
non-stop wish/fear -casting in here the past week for the GOM

looking at the experts... i.e. NHC. Dr. Masters, etc etc... calm, cool, collective and right on


That's what happen when you put showers in the GOM. Still didnt know what the hype was for since it was rather unimpressive from the start. The wishcasting reached to a point where persons listen to the NAM rather than the other models.
Quoting P451:


Except for a few who either do it on purpose to annoy - or that are just starting to understand the tropics and don't yet know what to look for when it comes to development or lack there of - I don't see this Wish/Doom casting that a number of users speak about.

Early on the Gulf looked prime, the models were hinting at development (as did Africa) and people were suggesting we were going to see some activity.

Since then both regions have become hostile and it's perfectly normal to see people go the other way in their opinions - now saying there won't be anything to watch for some time.

Not sure what some folks want to read on here...or why they label those opinions as they do.



Thank you. Nicely put. Even the so called pros stoop to sarcasm and labeling. Does make you wonder why they come on the blog at all if it's so beneath them. ;)
Quoting Weather456:


That's what happen when you put showers in the GOM. Still didnt know what the hype was for since it was rather unimpressive from the start. The wishcasting reached to a point where persons listen to the NAM rather than the other models.

people are so desperate for something to develop, when the NHC put a yellow circle around a blob people go bisserk
451 and 456


What was the final outcome on the conversation on the NJ storm? I had to leave at noon yesterday and I see that the discussion went on after that.
Basically StormW, Dr. Masters and Weather456 again did not expect much from this GOM disturbance, while IKE, suprinsingly and few others saw this becoming a INVEST. It just goes to show in a difficult season like 2009 who are the experts and the ones to follow during the 2010 hurricane season.

Keep up the good work y'all.
894. P451
Continued blob watching in the CATL. For reference - the stationary white dot in the upper left portion of the loop is Bermuda.

Sigh. I rest my case.
Quoting lawntonlookers:
451 and 456


What was the final outcome on the conversation on the NJ storm? I had to leave at noon yesterday and I see that the discussion went on after that.


I would say no where really. Both sides had valid points and thus we did not really come to an agreement. I still think it should of been atleast an invest and the spiral inflow into the storm at 1 point, also indicated it had some tropical characteristics.

I am waiting on a response from the NHC.

897. P451
Quoting lawntonlookers:
451 and 456


What was the final outcome on the conversation on the NJ storm? I had to leave at noon yesterday and I see that the discussion went on after that.
Quoting lawntonlookers:
451 and 456


What was the final outcome on the conversation on the NJ storm? I had to leave at noon yesterday and I see that the discussion went on after that.


I'm guessing we agreed to disagree. LOL.

I thought Storm made a very good case in regards to surface analysis as to why he thought it transitioned to an STS. 456 made a case both for and against in his blog yesterday. I'm still 50/50 on it but I felt the system only made it 95% of the way there - I felt the upper levels and satellite presentation didn't have enough time to follow the lower levels in transitioning to a sub tropical entity. I think given another 12-24 hours over water we would have seen it happen. I just felt it did not make it there in full.

To me, it was a hybrid storm that was well on it's way to becoming sub-tropical, had done so in the lower levels, but had not done so in the upper levels, and ran out of time as it made landfall. Close, but, not enough.

A very borderline system to be sure and I think we all can agree on that.

Now we wait for the post-season analysis to see if they decide to upgrade it's status to an unnamed sub tropical storm or just leave it as it was - a hybrid gale.



898. P451
Quoting Weather456:


I would say no where really. Both sides had valid points and thus we did not really come to an agreement. I still think it should of been atleast an invest and the spiral inflow into the storm at 1 point, also indicated it had some tropical characteristics.

I am waiting on a response from the NHC.



I definitely agree it should have been an invest at the very least 6 hours prior to landfall. Probably longer. That DID surprise me as did the general lack of coverage of the system as a potential tropical threat.

Quoting P451:
Continued blob watching in the CATL. For reference - the stationary white dot in the upper left portion of the loop is Bermuda.

its got some spin to it
900. IKE
I gave the GOM blob a 45-50% chance of developing and thought it would be an invest, but I never threw this garbage out....


stormt 8:42 AM CDT on September 12, 2009
a surface low in the gom just east of corpus christi texas has a pressure of 2006 mb its starting too get its act together and could bring torrential rains to the la and miss coasts..wind gusts to tropical storm force has been reported offshoe from my latest info i have and reports i received..a rornado watch will probably be issued for parts of la and miss this afternoon...stay tuned ...Stormt



stormt 8:57 AM CDT on September 12, 2009
a recon plane will be going down in the gulf to check this weather system later this afternoon ...pressures continue to fall and the shear has slacken quite a bit near the llc..all interests along the la and miss coasts should be ready to take quick action if warnings go up tonight and tomorrow...sst are in the upper 80S down there and it would not take much for a tropical storm to form later today...la and miss are expecting and additional 6 to 12 inches of rain for today and sunday and could be higher amounts due to training effects to 15 inches...Stormt



stormt 9:13 AM CDT on September 12, 2009
i think we have grace by sunday in the gulf of mexico..pressures are continuing to fall..winds gusts to 41 knots reported at lake front marina a few minutes ago.....Stormno


Quoting AussieStorm:
Today Sun 15:00 EST
Sydney, Australi
Wind: WNW at 13kph gusts:26kph
temp:32.5 dew point:-4.4
feels like: 30.0
Relative humidity 9%
11 degrees above average
A nice day in Sydney!
Good Morning All! Popped in to catch up on what's going on. My computer caught the swine flue and had to be crashed and brought back to life.

It is very humid and nasty here in South Louisiana. Forecast calls for 50% - 80% chance of rain all next week. Since I no longer have all of my sites to look at can someone catch me up on what's happening in the GOM?
903. IKE
Quoting cajunmoma:
Good Morning All! Popped in to catch up on what's going on. My computer caught the swine flue and had to be crashed and brought back to life.

It is very humid and nasty here in South Louisiana. Forecast calls for 50% - 80% chance of rain all next week. Since I no longer have all of my sites to look at can someone catch me up on what's happening in the GOM?



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF MEXICO HAS MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN TEXAS.
THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
Quoting IKE:



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF MEXICO HAS MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN TEXAS.
THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


Thanks Ike! So now that it is inland, we will get rain, and lots of it from the way it sounds.
Quoting cajunmoma:
Good Morning All! Popped in to catch up on what's going on. My computer caught the swine flue and had to be crashed and brought back to life.

It is very humid and nasty here in South Louisiana. Forecast calls for 50% - 80% chance of rain all next week. Since I no longer have all of my sites to look at can someone catch me up on what's happening in the GOM?


Don't know where in LA you are but this from Lake Charles.


.DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
MID/UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH SMALLER LOBES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN GYRE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A TONGUE OF RELATIVELY DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR THAT HAS
WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW INTO EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

AT THE SFC...LAND/BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND MSAS ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM A BROAD SFC LOW NEAR
THE MIDDLE TX COAST EASTWARD ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

YET ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS ON TAP...WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAVING CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE PAST 24HRS. THE SFC WARM FRONT MADE ALMOST NO NORTHWARD
PROGRESS YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THIS IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY CHANGE TODAY. THE MID/UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
TEXAS...WITH THE SFC LOW CREEPING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. AS IT DOES SO...THE WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD...REACHING JUST NORTH OF THE HWY 190 CORRIDOR BY THIS
EVENING.

IN THE MEANTIME...LOBES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND
THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...SETTING OFF SEVERAL BURSTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL A MAJOR
CONCERN TODAY...AS IS THE SLIM CHANCE OF A WEAK/SHORT LIVED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. CONTINUED TO
UNDERCUT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER
Quoting IKE:
Freddie got a shearing haircut and when he did, the dust infested him.

Now he looks like a doughnut and it's making me think of heading to Wal-Mart for a batch of chocolate covered doughnuts........

Where's a Krispy Kreme when you need one?
Might be able to find a KK @ Walmart. I've seen them in the FL stores from time to time. Dunno how fresh they are, though....

And there has to be SOME wx value to talking abt doughnuts.... lol

Morning, everybody....
Its amazing how poorly the models are performing this year with weak systems....course that is about all we have had this year so far.....KNOCKING ON WOOD.......old Fred is moving West and maybe WSW a bit.....while 90% of the models have him moving WNW......it appears the GFS models are the only ones doing decent with weak systems. Even the BAM models are all screwed up......Don't know what screws was tightened and loosened but, someone really messed up the Carburator really bad. Its missin really bad!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Might be able to find a KK @ Walmart. I've seen them in the FL stores from time to time. Dunno how fresh they are, though....

And there has to be SOME wx value to talking abt doughnuts.... lol

Morning, everybody....

They are fresh, they are delivered every morning from the closest Krispy Kreme Store.
909. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Might be able to find a KK @ Walmart. I've seen them in the FL stores from time to time. Dunno how fresh they are, though....

And there has to be SOME wx value to talking abt doughnuts.... lol

Morning, everybody....


LOL...

Good morning.

Weather doesn't look bad here so far today. Think I'll go push a lawnmower for a couple of hours....
Quoting TampaSpin:
Its amazing how poorly the models are performing this year with weak systems....course that is about all we have had this year so far.....KNOCKING ON WOOD.......old Fred is moving West and maybe WSW a bit.....while 90% of the models have him moving WNW......it appears the GFS models are the only ones doing decent with weak systems. Even the BAM models are all screwed up......Don't know what screws was tightened and loosened but, someone really messed up the Carburator really bad. Its missin really bad!

for every upgrade theres a downgrade
Quoting IKE:


LOL...

Good morning.

Weather doesn't look bad here so far today. Think I'll go push a lawnmower for a couple of hours....

the things you do for fun astound me
912. IKE
Quoting gator23:

the things you do for fun astound me


Ain't nobody else gonna do it. It needs doing anyway. I like to mow sometimes. Gives my mind a chance to think about things.

L8R.


Hurricane Lili (1990) possible track???
Quoting Weather456:


I would say no where really. Both sides had valid points and thus we did not really come to an agreement. I still think it should of been atleast an invest and the spiral inflow into the storm at 1 point, also indicated it had some tropical characteristics.

I am waiting on a response from the NHC.



Thanks 451 and 456

It was a very interesting hybrid storm to watch and follow as it came north. I think that it should have at least been given an invest seeing it is still hurricane season. If it was latter in the year, it would have been labeled a nor easterly. Lets just be glad it happened in September and not in January. We would have snow measured in feet. Just my thoughts.
I agree w/ u on that, TS. Seems these weaker systems are responding to aspects of the wx environment that the models are not taking into account in a proper way.....

Meanwhile, in Nassau we have sunny skies, though the blue is that funny metallic-looking colour that makes u expect thunderstorms later on....



I expect we will get some further disturbed weather today.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Might be able to find a KK @ Walmart. I've seen them in the FL stores from time to time. Dunno how fresh they are, though....

And there has to be SOME wx value to talking abt doughnuts.... lol

Morning, everybody....


Surley COFFEE can be a KK/weather event, sort of a swirll on top with the creamer. Looks kind of like EX fred right now?
NEW BLOG
Quoting gator23:

They are fresh, they are delivered every morning from the closest Krispy Kreme Store.
There u go, Ike; ur wish @ Walmart.... lol

I'm having a boiled egg and italian sausage myself.... while looking at the GOES interactive viewer. I'm not seeing much with this frontal system near us to make me think it's reasonable to expect anything to develop in our area....