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Franklin, and 3 other tropical waves

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:54 PM GMT on July 22, 2005

I don't have much to add on Franklin; it is gradually strengthening and beginning to resemble a real tropical storm as it moves away from the shear that was hurting it earlier today. It's still anyone's guess where Franklin will go, and I won't speculate on this more until later. It is interesting to watch the storm's progress on Melbourne Florida's long range radar.

The wave in the Caribbean that was shearing Franklin is now moving over the Yucatan, and appears primed to develop. Only the presence of the Yucatan is keeping it from developing right now, and once it moves into the Gulf tomorrow, I believe we will have another tropical depression.

A small disturbance at 10N 53W has been attracting the attention of several of the people posting comments. This tropical wave has several things going for it--a decent upper-level anitcyclone on top, low wind shear overhead (5 - 10 kt), and warm ocean waters ahead of it. The wave has one big negative--the steering flow is going to carry it into Venezuela. The steering flow does bend more WNW once the disturbance reaches South America, so it is possible that the wave could gain enough latitude to not be totally destroyed by interaction with land. The surface wind field under the disturbance is not well-developed--the QuikSCAT winds show a uniform east find flow under the disturbance, with not much of a hint of a wind shift associated with it. It is possible that this wave could develop into a tropical depression in two days or so, but I think the interaction with South America will likely prevent that from happening.



A tropical wave in the middle of the Atlantic at 11N 35W has some promise; it is further north and less likely to interact with South America. Just north of that tropical wave is a huge low pressure area loaded with African dust. This low has so much dry air and dust in it, that convection has been able to develop in association with it. It is not expected to develop into a tropical depression. This is an unusually large low pressure system for this part of the Atlantic, and will sharply reduce visibilites in the Caribbean islands over the next week when it blows in with its load of Saharan dust. One can see the greyish load of African dust it carries covering nearly half of the tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. Residents of the Southeastern U.S. may see the dust from this system color their sunsets late next week.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Anyone: Does the size or intensity matter when it comes to weather or not the storm gets picked up by the trough. iwould think a smaller storm would have less chance. also I feel like if the trough does miss it that it wont take much of what is left of the ridge to push the storm back west unless the storm intensifies.
Well if the storm is smaller it means the trough would have to dig deeper to bump it out to sea. If the storm was huge like Floyd(1999) the trough wouldn't have to go that far down to pick it up. The sronger the trough, the bigger the affects are.
thank you
Florida newspapers are already advising of the potential dust storm that you show from the low on the map.
Franklin looks like it's growing legs or arms, and heading north to the Carolinas... very strange storm. The "cluster" (for lack of a better term?) partly over Cozumel is growing really BIG... y'all sure it's gonna go due west in the GOM????
Dr. Jeff, this is great analysis. I'd love to see a satellite pic like this every day, and your take on what it shows and what is transpiring.

Look at that giant low pressure system!
dr masters....how afraid do i need to be in wilmington nc? i work sat and sunday 7a-7p...should i be worried of getting stuck at work? IM A NURSE
Well it probably wont go directly due west all the way but pretty confident it wont hit n/e gulf
RE: fRANKLIN
10. Alec
Talkin about the nw Caribbean tropical wave.
11. K8e1
i'm talking about franklin
I hope franklin don't come to NC becase my yard and building floods with just a strong Tropical Storm.
We're getting big storms right now in Houston. What a week
Emily, Franklin, maybe something in the gulf and dust from the sahara - I'm afraid to ask...what's next?
K8E1...No need to be concerned in my opinion
So this thing coming into the Bay of Campeche hasn't been declared a TS yet has it?
alec there is a low developing nnw of cancun and you can see it easily from the water vapor imagery...it seems to be at 22.5n and 87.5w...if the low develops there then the models were already 150 to 200 miles off where they expected this low to enter the gulf..you base your forecast on modelas i dont want anything to do with models..also that low is still in the bay of campeche moving west slowly cutting the shear form gert..im calling it gert because by tomorrow we will have gert moving n or nnw...i think the elongated high pressure can weaken in a new york second and the symetrical high is much more proniunced and can protect you better...also the trough coming down in thwe forecast for sunday and monday doesnt vote well for that west or wnw movement...im just giving you my reasoning and i understand yours but i think where you going to have problems is if the trough that is not very strong now does not pick up franklin...then you have the famous catch 22 situation where each one could follow right behind the other and hit the same spot...gert hitting land monday night or tuesday and franklin going across fla sometime monday and hitting the central gulf coast on wednesday...this is a very strong scenario as it stands now...
k8el and hurricaneking where in NC are you guys? I am in Fayetteville/Ft. Bragg
you are very safe in wilmington from franklin..there may be a 10% chance franklin makes it that far north but lots of things would have to happen...its very slim and i wouldnt worry about it..my neice lives up there and i told her the same thing...
so StormTop you feel like the "savior" trough isn't going to sweep franklin out to sea
Alec what's your opinion or prediction for T.S. Franklin?
no personally i think franklin is going out to sea i said that last night and i still think so...i was talking about franklin fighting off all the shear it did and was not torn apart...it just surprised me..i was never worried about franklin...he will bother only the fish.........
Great sat-image loop (water vapor) showing the dust storm in the middle of the atlantic:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/satpix/eatl_wv_loop.htm

All the loops you could ever want:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/satellite.php

Hope I'm not infringing by linking to a possible competitor... Just thought the folks in comments might enjoy these.
thanks a jas im sure they could use them.....
lots of southerly shear coming off the mexican coast in the bay of campeche right now...if this keeps up more things to add to the equation for gert who will form tomorrow...incidentally im predicting gert will be the biggest storm in area since hurricane betsy in 1965 who had a 90 mile wide eye when it hit west of new orleans ..the gales extended 400 miles in all directions...gert wont be as large as betsy but certainly will triple the size of emily...something to think about and my own personal opinion...
25. Alec
Stormtop you said not that long ago that Franklin was going to hit FL. Now your saying something different. Im confused, what is your prediction? well mine is still the same. Models are more agreeing that Franklin will move out to sea as a trough takes it northeastward. Im pretty sure of that now. Now the wave that is looking impressive in the caribbean has convection expanding northward and eastward. Most people assume it may appear to be turning north but that wave is currently moving into the Yucatan. Another thing to note: as its heading into land it cant develop cause it loses its heat source-the ocean. Thats why the western part of the wave isn't so full of convection while the eastern part of it is feeding off the warm waters of the Caribbean. Same thing as before-i believe it will not affect the northern or eastern gulf but will hit ne mexico or possibly south Texas.
willdd1979, I live in a tiny place called Bayboro. It's in Pamlico county.
27. deb1
Goodness, if the weather system over the Yucatan does get as big as you are predicting Stormtop and does hit NE Mexico, Alec, hot on the heels of Emily, it will be a real disaster. The land beyond the coast in NE Mexico is already completely saturated from Emily. Do you have any thoughts on timing?
Storm, there is no low of any kind nnw of Cancun.
no i was commenting on your scenario and i just through that in the mix to see what your opinion was if franklin would miss the trough...every post i said franklin would be out with the fish i always thought that way and i sure havent changed my mind...what do you think of the low and all the shear off the yucatan pen in the bay of campeche...it shows up quite clearly in water vapor and it looks like its increasing...i think this is in gerts favor only time will tell who is right..i can tell you one thing gert will be a massive hurricane in size and the area it encompasses...gert could be the size of the gulf of mexico once it gets crankin...so there is no confusion my prediction is franklin having dinner with the fish......are we clear on that everyone franklin is going out to sea......we agree on that right alec...
30. Alec
The timing would probably be in about 2-3 days. It would indeed be disasterous for those folks. I wish i could say it wasn't heading that direction because there would be terrible flooding. But its looking more likely as time goes on.
Help!!
No offense StormTop you said at one time Emily was going to hit either Houston or New Orleans -
deb i think once gert gets started it will move about 10 to 15 mph and hit land sometime late monday night or early tuesday...im also saying no less then a cat 3 ..the reason the warm temps she will be over and no shear if she goes on that n or nnw path...this storm will triple the size of emily in area....for instance say alec is right and it does hit mexico...you would have gale warnings north of corpus christi texas...i hoped that help...if it hit mogan city you would have gale warning all the way to panama city fla...
trying to get to archives on NHC site...doing as they suggested using passive FTP..but no luck it times out...I just got to look Betsy..I want to see that 90 mile eye...
35. deb1
If this storm does end up three times the size of Emily, as Stormtop predicts, then where ever it hits is going to be an even worse disaster than Emily was. The impacts of that particular storm are still going on inland now, because of all the rain it dumped on the way through.
36. Alec
Yeah. I remembered an earlier post days ago when you said it would affect FL before i even joined this blog. Thats why i was confused about what you were saying. Now the wave in the nw caribbean has great potential to develop into a big storm since its size is noticably bigger. Dont think itll be a big as the gulf though. lol The upper low does seem to be causing shear in the bay but is forecasted to relax over the next few days.
37. deb1
Does it have to be much bigger than Emily, or moving much faster than she did, to do considerably more damage than Emily managed?
yes and the nhc at one time said franklin would hit fla...you cant always be right..on emily it was a different one to forecast...i said it would slow down it did..i said it would move south it did..im not saying i did a great job on that storm but i did stomp the nhc on there prediction of the storm stalling and then moving south...it wasnt all that bad...i will do better this time..im very concerned about the conditions i see developing off the coast of mexico right now and also in the bay of campeche...i think a low is forming and its forming well to the east of the nhc position...so lets just see what happens...you can ask me anything you want at anytime and ill be glad to answer you...
stormtop...so lets say this storm does develop into a big hurricane in the gulf. how much chance does it have of coming to corpus>
Am I right when i say that if it will be a large storm than it may not strengthen as rapidly as the other small storms this year. also I'll believe franklin is going out to sea when he starts to
So TD 7 has not formed yet but we're already predicting some huge hurricane will form in the Gulf? A bit soon, me thinks.
rocket all you have to do is look up hurricane betsy....the eye was 90 miles wide ask the nhc...gales extended 400 miles in all directions..i went through it and it was a 36 hour storm...my wind speed indicator blew out at 130 mph winds...i never seen that again...betsy was huge and ferrocious...im talking area wise..i believe they recorded at the lake front airport sustained winds of 165 mph with gusts to 190...look it up ihave the folder right in front of me..i have nayone you have questions about...
43. K8e1
LOL stormtop....i'm sorry but i just don't listen to you...you ARE very amusing however...and you are NO WAY employed by the NHC
44. Alec
Well the bigger the area this storm is the more room this thing has to cover. If it came into nw mexico or s texas as a small storm it would do less damage but if it came in as a large storm(area wise) it would have much bigger impacts. Now when tropical systems come in they spin counter clockwise. You would add the forward speed on the east side(since the east side is spinning in the same direction as its moving) to the total strength of the storm. Lets say a tropical system hit with 80mph. If it was traveling at 15mph on the east side of the storm it would be 95mph.
was alive and on coast..funny stormtop Im way less than 400 miles and on east side..we got NOTHING
Stormtop where do you think the storms will go ?
was alive and on coast..funny stormtop Im way less than 400 miles and on east side..we got NOTHING
deb emily had a give her the benefit of the doubt about a 12 mile wide eye when she went on shore...hurricane winds only extended out 45 miles...betsy extended out almost 200 miles deb thats a storm that caused lots of destruction...it covered almost 1000 miles in area....
"i said Emily would slow down it did..i said it would move south it did..im not saying i did a great job on that storm but i did stomp the nhc on there prediction of the storm stalling and then moving south"

Emily never "moved" south, the eye merely temporarily wobbled south and stalled a couple times due to a cycloid motion that sometimes occurs with hurricanes. The real movement of the storm stayed west to west-northwest all the way to its death in the mountains of Mexico, just as the NHC predicted.

Like I said before, stormtop has me hitting F5 on this blog all day long... I can't wait to hear the next big prediction. I call it 'tabloid weather'. Very entertaining. ;)
51. Alec
I agree with hawkeyewx. Emily was easy to predict because a huge ridge to its north kept it going in a westward direction all the way to mexico.
I thought we came here to talk about the weather not argue.
Uh...am I being ignored today or what?
hawkeye i wonder if you remember opal another one i travelled to go through...when i went to sleep it was a cat 1 a weak one and when, my alarm went off at 5am opal was approaching cat 4 status and heading for mobile so donrt let that fool you all you need is a good circulation and you can have rapid strengthing in a few hours if the conditions are right...i dont take anything for granted when it comes to the gulf of mexico..camille strengthened the same way from a strong tropical storm to a cat 5 over just 400 miles of water....
Not for nothing, but Gulf waters are faily mixed after two strong hurricanes and a strong tropical storm this month alone. To deepen a storm as STORMTOP is talking would take magic as Gulf waters can't recover like the W. Carib.
56. Alec
Were not arguing were giving our opinions. Now hurricaneking, where do you think the 2 systems will go. Curious to know.
The weather in Houston the last couple of hours hasn't ingored you EmmyRose! Pretty instense in some places...
imn not going to argue im just giving the info and let the chips fall where they may...
stormtop....how long you think before this thing reaches the gulf of mexico...and where is your prediction for landfall>
I think Franklin will make a loop and then go into North Carolina. I think the storm over the Yucatan will go into Mexico or south Texas.
alec the storm is only 2 days old are we talking about emily or franklin...franklin is only 2 days old alec..i would like to see the post you are referring to...
Tabloid weather indeed.
In Houston today we've had 2 inches of rain per hour
with more on the way. It looks like Franklin will steer away from the US with the currents taking him out to be with the fishes IMO
So where do the rest of you think the 2 systems will go?
65. Alec
I was comparing the track of emily to answer someone else's question.
If Franklin continues to the north as it is doing right now, I'm pretty sure its going to get picked up by that shortwave and shuttled off to sea.

As for the Yucatan system.. that largely depends where and if a solid center forms from that mass of convection.
hurricaneking...i hope not south texas..my vacation is next week..floating on the frio river.
emmyrose...corpus barely got sprinkled from Emily, but my brother lives in humble and said houston has had a week of bad rains.
stormtop...how come you are not gonna answer my 2 questions i posted to you>> my feelings are hurt!! lol
Well Franklin out to lunch and IF this blob does develop in the bay of campeche to the border of Mx/Tx again IMO
Rhindle - it's flooding really badly in the 45 area of town
it will reach the gulf late tonight and i figure it will hit somewhere along the central gulf in 3 days so you are looking at a landfall somewhere between morgan city and panamacity monday night or tuesday moving between 10-15 mph...
Franklin does a Jeanne loop, maybe not as big, but end game more towards Carolinas.

What may become TD7 heads west towards TX
hurricane enquierer....alien creates hurricane of gigantic proportions evacuations set for all of eastern US...
So "The Day After Tomorrow" was right?
CORPUSWATCH - bring your inner tube and a case of beer here you can float down any major street in Houston. As you pass my street, I'll send out a Shiners Bock for ya
emmy..make mine a pina colada please...my brother is in the disaster remediation biz..he calls this weather, job security!
mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.......Shiner!
hahhahahah
Art Bell is always right mfolmer
Now OUTROCKET you know Planet X has a pull on all these hurricanes
what corpus im sorry
He'll be secure for a very long time here in Texas with our weather Corpuswatch
Pina Colada? Margarita - float on by the bar is open
Man the lightening is crazy here
80. Alec
I hope it isn't that bad down there in Houston. They certainly could use a break from rain.
emmy isn't that something..emily hits mexico, scares the peewater out of texas, rain misses corpus entirely and keeps on fallin in houston...do you people there manufacture your own storms or what? seems like no matter the time of the year...it is always raining somewhere in houston
82. WSI
I don't think Steve is hyping anything, but one member sure is. :)
That's cuz we're spacial honey
stormtop...never mind...i will see in the morning what that thing coming into gulf decides to do
hangin my head....stormtop has alienated ME lol
corpus i dont think that gert is going to corpus...you might get some rain however from it but little wind..the storm is always worse on the eastern side then the western side...if it hits say morgan cith you would be on the western side and you would get lots of rain especially if it slowed before it hit the coast...i hope that answers your question....
Alec we're getting pounded in Houston - at least where I'm at right now. And it's going to storm all weekend
what's the best radar pic to look at to view this thing coming into the gulf>>??
thanks stormtop
STORMTOP - Do you have a degree in MET?
i want to make this clear the opinions i give on here and i stress that is my feeling on the way i think gert will go and franklin...i am not hedging im coming out with my facts and what i think the storm will do...if anyone has a problem with that hawkeye dont listen to me ..im not here to argue because this is serious business..so if you dont agree what i say then fine disagree you have that right...im just giving you the facts as i see them...i will either sink or swim..i have been doing this for 30 years like i said before just like alec everyone wants to be right on everything and i respect everyones opinion in here but i also want everyone to know the full story...we will see time will only tell but i think you should be adult enough not to argue and respect everyones comment...i dont see anyone from the nhc coming on with a prediction written in stone yet...i am going out on a limb because i dont think things will change that much in 3 days..crunch time for my forecast prediction will be monday by noon when a hurricane watch should be issued if im right ...if im wrong ill be glad to step up to the plate and acknowledge it to everyone...i have no problem with that...so lets stop the bickering and do some serious storm forecasting...
I just read the Hurricane Betsy report. If anyone in Louisiana had received 165 mph sustained wind the NHC would have upgraded it to cat 5 a long time ago. The lowest pressure at landfall was 948 mb, hardly cat 5 type pressure. I am not poo-poo'ing Betsy, it was obviously a very large and damaging storm, a storm I would love to track.

Storm, I do indeed remember Opal. I remember watching the weather channel when they announced the pressure had crashed to 916 mb in the central northern Gulf.
I apologize if I insulted you with my question. I was just curious. . .
would that make a differnece to you if i did mfolmer...you will find out very soon how much i know...the same goes for you if you dont like my scenarios or comments turn me off..i dont here you going out on the limb all i hear you doing is making these kindergarden comments..act adult and i will discuss anything you want about hurricanes..i will give you my reasoning and why i think this will happen...just be adulr about it thats all i ask...
"what's the best radar pic to look at to view this thing coming into the gulf>>??"

Best one I've found:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8irnhc/g8irnhcjava.html

This one would be pretty good, but the loop is broken... Only the last frame is up to date:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/satpix/gmex_ir4_loop.htm

This one has a decent view:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/satpix/watl_ir4_loop.htm

I tend to enjoy the infrared loops, but if you want to see others... Check here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/satellite.php

When is the next bulletin out for this thing headed into the Gulf? Tomorrow morning? And I know this is really a dumb question but who the heck picks out these names for the hurricanes?
lol you sure didnt insult me mfolmer...and if you look at the facts on betsy i did not say betsy was a cat 5 she was a strong cat 3 borderline 4...i was talking about the winds in gust at pilot town they recorded a gust 165mph there..i think you are getting betsy confused with camille which was a very small storm but a very destructive one..camilles eye was only 10 miles in diameter when she came on shore at pass christian...2 different storms all together...betsy did wide spread damage camille did not do half the damage betsy did and they were many more lives lost in betsy then they were in camille and you can look that up at the library if you dont believe me....
Here's a link to Betsy and 1965 info.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/lib1/nhclib/1965.pdf

Basically Betsy was Andrew model 1, almost an identical path and very similiar strength except for its early pass through the carribean and the fact that it was a larger storm. An interesting note, the storm was forecast to curve out to sea and was heading into an area for clouding( the prelude to project stormfury), but curved west. Many at the time new it was to be seeded and blamed that for the turn, but of course it was never seeded, but caused an uproar. One of many times that cloud seeding was given a very undeserved bad rep.

The eye was 40mi wide, not 90, but still very impressive for such a strong storm. Stormtop, I think you might be thinking of Carla of 61, a true huge monster. It was at one time a cat 5 with 175 and made landfall as a strong 4 with a storm surge of 20ft that went 20mi inland. There is reasonable arguement that this was truly a 5 at landfall, but officially it wasn't. Butt even Carla's eye wasn't 90mi acrooss(i forget the size), but it basically had hurricane force winds from LA to mexico. The bay in corpus was below see level due to off shore winds and the storm was 100 to the ne.

All this being said I doubt the wave over the yucatan is destined for fame. It might well develop but probably wont have time to get really going. Also it will be crossing Emily's wake if it come nw toward Tx. I still agree with Alec that a western gulf landfall is likely.
Every time I check in StormTop is still at it. Oh well, it is entertaining if nothing else. I enjoy Dr. Jeff's blogs very much.
according to the NHC..camiile was #12 for damage followed by BETSY#13..
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastcost.shtml
but hey stormtop...keep right on posting,by whatever means YOU use to forcast,I dont care.I find your post entertaing and colorful..some use nature,climatology,meterology,and gut feeling to predict...Plus thanks to you I get to look things up while I watch these storms...dont let nobody get to you..keep up the work my friend..
So, it seems to me that stormtop is totally swagging (super-wild-ass-guessing) these predictions based on credible principles and real experience with storm prediction. He's going out on a limb in a way that you won't ever see other meteorologists do because most of them are being paid to do it and want to keep their jobs. I can guarantee you that these other meteorologists have these same types of ideas running through their brains. They probably even share them with family and close friends. I think its great that we've got someone around with at least some know-how who's willing to share these ideas.

You need to remember that even the forecasters using sophisticated mathematical modeling systems can't predict what these storms are doing with clear accuracy. In addition, most of them wouldn't dare predict what a storm is going to in a whopping 72 hours... Weather prediction is not an exact science... Without running metoerological data through a sophisticated algorithm, all you can really do is rely on instinct and a few basic principles. It's a guessing game, and you shouldn't tar and feather someone just because they're having a little bit of semi-serious-fun with it.
I echo outrocket's sentiments. Keep it up stormtop! *F5 F5*
Good call jasone. At least stormtop has the <3's to say what he thinks will happen. ;)
i said camille and betsy were 2 different animals...i have the records from every storm soince back to betsy thats what got me interested in hurricanes....i will look it up and the eye was larger then that i wish someone from the nhc would step forward on this because the city of new orleans almost went under...they had to blow up a section of new orleans east levee to save the city of new orleans...that was the carolyn park section that lost everything..the order was given by mayor victor schiro...i will find the report and i will fax everyone how big betsys eye was...i know for a fact it was more then 40 miles wide..i will bet anyone on this board a lunch that betsy s eye was 40 miles in diameter...any takers let me know....
"i did not say betsy was a cat 5 she was a strong cat 3 borderline 4...i was talking about the winds in gust at pilot town they recorded a gust 165mph there

Now that sounds right. But your first long post about Betsy mentioned the following.

"i believe they recorded at the lake front airport sustained winds of 165 mph with gusts to 190."

That's the part that didn't make sense. Camille, yes, Betsy no.
Again STORMTOP, I apologize for what seems to have been quite an insulting question if you could call my question a "kindergarten" comment. I did in fact give my 2-3 cents on what I thought your monster would do. Here's a refresher:

"Franklin does a Jeanne loop, maybe not as big, but end game more towards Carolinas.

What may become TD7 heads west towards TX"

Secondary comment: TD7 may make it to CAT 1 intensity before landfall. Of course, I may well be wrong.

I will never knock someone down for their opinions, but I will challenge to see if there is any thought behind the forecast. I worked closely with meteorologists at the University of Miami and NOAA's Hurricane Research Division for a few years and we all have our opinions. Trust me, we get as excitable as anyone else. So again, my apologies.


108. Alec
The latest models havent changed very much. Still seeing Franklin going out to sea with the help of the trough. That system in the nw caribbean has moved into the Yucatan. The last loop of it shows it turning more to the left as that upper trough is moving outta the way gradually. It is expected to possibly develop over the Gulf but dont believe it will be a monster since it wont be spending too much time in the sw gulf. Still see consistency with this thing to move more west/wnw and threaten the ne mexican coastline or possibly s texas. That high to the north of it should protect the central/eastern gulf.
Here are a couple of Betsy links from the NHC. The two pages seem to contradict a bit with regard to eye diameter. The first page shows the eye diameter at about 48 miles at landfall and shortly thereafter, yet the second page has a chart that says the eye diameter reached 80 miles around that same time.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1965/betsy/prelim04.gif

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1965/betsy/prelim03.gif
Alec, I'm thinking about the same thing for Franklin and the Yucatan system.
NHC never ever said Franklin was going to hit Florida unless you are considering that their "CONE OF UNCERTAINTY actually touched Florida. The TRACK was no where close!!

Its one thing to make lousy predictions it is another to state falsehoods.

For the record...Franklin will NEVER make it to the coast! Period. Exclamation mark! End of statement on that one!

If they name that other mess over the GULF look for it to be just a rain maker with no significant wind speeds to it

It is no wonder our industry is in the state it is in
A very cool photo taken by the ISS of Emily and the moon can be found here:
www.stormcenter.com/media/envirocast/kare/

The AOMD reports the largest eyes can reach 120 miles across, anyone know when any of these have occured?
113. Alec
very cool picture indeed! thanks for sharing that Canenut!!!
Thanks for that website Canenut! (Side note: Does you name mean fan of hurricanes or fan of the UM hurricanes?)

For anyone interested, here is another great satellite site with pictures of Emily:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=12986
So NASCARWxNut, according to what you just stated Hurricane Jeanne should have never hit florida last year. That storm had a very similar set up and the forcasters were sure that it was going to miss florida and head out into the atlantic. Unfortunetly that didn't happen. YOu should never underestimate any storm because forecast tracks change. I am still not convinced that it will just say good bye forever and head off into the atlantic. I wouldn't be so sure of your statement NASCARWxNut.
mfolmer, I would have to say that since I went to WVU, I'm a bigger fan of the natural type than the college type. I've been tracking one kind for 20 years and disliking one for about as long. But thanks to the ACC, no more problems.
Canenut: lol, I also have been tracking the natural type for many years and I'm a graduate of the college, but I take no offense to your dislike.
Looks like Franklin has stopped it's northerly movement and is drifting very slowly to the southeast. I am surprised that the NHC has not given a 8:00pm advisory. I think the BAMM model might be catching on to something but to early to tell at the moment.
119. Alec
It may be just a wabble. Storms tend to wabble when they're going so slow. Will wait and see.
120. Alec
correction: "wobble"
The NHC is no longer giving intermediate advisories for Franklin because all tropical storm warnings for the Bahamas have been dropped.
Looks like Franklin is really dying off now. From the Hurr Hunters:

MAX FL WIND 31 KT NW QUAD 23:57:40 Z

It also mentioned the circulation was open to the NW
With Discovery sitting on the pad awaiting launch, I hope the BAMM and BAMD are wrong, it takes around 48 hours to return the shuttle to the VAB if they have too. Both have Franklin near the central Florida coast in 72 or so hours.
I'm with you Canenut. Trying to get that Shuttle back up and all we need is a hurricane to deal with!
OneDay, the recon plane also found the pressure has dropped by 5 mb, so I wouldn't write Frank's obit just yet.
Hopefully Franklin will head off into the atlantic. NASA needs to launch discovery. I was looking at NASA and I found this picture of a very large storm on mars. Link
127. Alec
Very cool picture!
On Melbourne's extended range radar, it looks like Franklin's eye is a little better defined, but still no real movement now for about 2 hours.
AF305 0306A FRANKLIN OB 11
MAX FL WIND 56 KT SE QUAD 00:04:20 Z
Still 1003mb.
130. cjnew
yes, but if it is just a wobble to the southwest this will make the storm take longer to get further north and the further south it is the less affect the front will have on....no?
131. cjnew
correction: southeast
Canenut,
That 56 k wind is over 60 mph and that pessure is a drop of 5 mb. Plus a se wobble. Seems like frankie is not ready to move out to sea and not ready to give up.
No, he's a fighter. But that shear is giving him a crew cut. I suppose if it relaxes, we could have quite a contender.
still moving just east of north posted by NHC
canenut..thanks for sharing that image of the moon and emily...AMAZING
guess we must all be looking at the radars wrong...sure looks SE to me

"Franklin is moving just east of due north near 8 mph"
There is a big blowup of deep convection with the Yucatan disturbance, but Cancun and Cozumel, both near the convection, still have very high pressure 1016 mb pressure.
hawk..which image are you looking at?
I say that the blob thats headed to the Gulf will go into Tx/Mex border ....again. That's what the clouds are telling me...
If you all turn your monitors 90 degrees counterclockwise you can see the ENE movement just fine. Oh yeah, and close one eye.
emmy....still raining in houston?
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

great satellite site
thanks hawk...it is clear..easy to see what we are trying to see....
what website does that come from...nasa??
No but the coolest sunset in the universe - I wish I had my camera with me - left it at work.
So red, so gorgeous - but there are going to be rounds of storms again tomorrow - lots of flooding today
I guess NASA is involved somehow with the site. What's great about this site is that many times when there is a hurricane threatening the US it updates the images every 5 to 10 minutes and you can also zoom in quite a bit.
Awesome sat images hawkeyewx!
I try not to predict much,my interest lies in watching they are all Tropical systems but no two are alike and since each storm is different and always has been and will be,we will never be able to predict direction,intensity or size at 100%...but by learning these difference we may get as good as 95%....and thats a good thing.
148. Alec
The new forecast package says the tropical storm wind field has gone outward 85 miles east of the center. Even though it wobbled to the right it may just be a temporary motion(since it has more convection and is lopsided to the left of it), ive seen many systems wobble erratically when they arent symmetrical. The forecast is basically unchanged, still see it going off to sea, possibly getting close to Bermuda. Now in the Yucatan that wave has a huge circulation which is responsible for some of the shear over Franklin. Very consistent, as with the models for the last day, this blob will move wnw toward ne Mexico or s Texas and pose no threat to the n or w gulf coasts. A high to its north is still going to steer this thing around its periphery. Dont see this system developing into any monster.
Check out this image of Hurricane Isabel using that satellite site. Truely awesome.

http://www.geocities.com/kaminwx/images/Isabel_IR_high_zoom.jpg
150. Alec
correction: "will pose no threat to northern or eastern gulf."
looking at the radar from membourne, I just don't see much monement, but the NHC must be right. They have the planes, the technology and more. I only see the radar.
Awesome site - what a picture of Isabel
Ok..looking for imput,now if Franklin manages to hang around awhile and not stray too far,how do you think the Saharan dust storm will effect it. will the micron size left in the atomoshere be small enough to become condensation nuclei or will they be to large and dampen storm...and will it effect steering?
Hawkeyewx, great sat photo!

I guess sometimes we forget that tropical systems can have a mind of their own. Many of us remember it, but for those unfamiliar, take a look at Betsy from 1965.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Betsy

Betsy,hmmm "stormfury"?
156. Alec
Franklin should be long gone by late next week. Even if that massive low with Saharan dust came it'd be more than a week till it would even reach the US. That "dust storm" is way too far out to speculate where it would go. Now lets say hypothetically that it came westward over the Atlantic to the Western Atlantic. If it did the dry dust within the system would suppress moisture and would be a hinderance for tropical development. If the dust was condensation nuclei then there would be convection sourrounding that system(no convection with that system yet)
Outrocket, I did find this:

The researchers also noticed that the updrafts of warm moist air, which build into thunderstorms, were stronger, and that there were more of these updrafts produced in the presence of the dust. These updrafts also carry tiny particles of pollution called aerosols up into all levels of the building thunderclouds.

See full text at:
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/weather-05b.html

Thanks, Alec and I agree with you. Now considering the dispersion of heavy particles over distance should it stay below say 25N would it develop convection with whats left in atmosphere and get tropical charachateristics farther west?
Thanks for link cane..will read.
OK OK GUYS WHEN IT COMES TO HURRICANES, THERE IS ONLY ONE PLACE TO GET YOUR INFORMATION ..........................................THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
161. Alec
Well as this thing travels across it could get rid of the dust in the days to come and develop further but probably wont happen soon. As that low spirals inward(counterclockwise) the dust too will get trapped in the circulation and remain suspended in the air. Rising air will beat the force pushing the dust downward(since dust is very light).
Outrocket, "Project stormfury" was an experiment in the mid-late 60's to see if cloud seeding hurricanes could reduce their strength. In 1969 seeding was done on Debbie and it did seem to reduce its strength, but it quickly recovered. I'm not too familiar with the details(weather modification was never my interest, tropical cyclone development was)I've hadn't heard much about hurricane modification recently and the idea seems out of style. One major rule was that the storm could only be seeded while far from land, thats why Betsy's was cancelled when it turned west.

Now cloud seeding to assist developement of thundestorms has had good sucess, but unfortunately there are so many misconceptions it is seriously hampered.
yea tex,..in a way that's what I was getting at..could this dust storm depending on micron size be like "stormfury"and mother nature seed it...and alec interesting..
1002mb/55kts 3:23z, goodnight for now!
I think if we mess with nature, it will come back at us with full fury - that's why seeding really doesn't work IMO
You know we sure have been getting alot of large systems early this year rolling off Africa. Normally you see the East Atlantic Season in August. Sure makes me wonder what August and September will be like.
ok the lowest pressure in betsy was 941 mb winds of 155mph..thelat was28.3n 89.2w on 9/10/65...at 6pm grand isle reported wind gusts to 165mph as betsy passed 30 miles to the west of burwood la...as the storm reached the coast winds of 110 miles and hour were reported in biloxi miss..tides reached 8 to 10 ft from the mouth of the miss to pensecola fla...you have to be crazy if you telling me you didnt get anything from betsy..these are the cold hard facts...you must of slept through it all rocket because you did get 110 mph winds from betst...betsy was so large they had a watch all the way back west to bafin bay texas...
well Emmy I hate to tell you this but we seed more by proxy now than we realize.
Outrocket, it depends on the size of the particles, I don't know off hand what the size needs to be. My suspion is that those dust partcles are larger than they would need to be to act as condensation nuclei. But, the numbers are in my cloud Physic book(also known as "How we get rain" book) and I can't remember where that is off hand.

I do remember Dr Masters writing in a blog that research has shown that development is hindered with the big dust surges. But that could just be attributed to the dry air that comes with the dust.

pollution
yea...I think that blog kinda happened when I discussed some with him a week ago.
172. Alec
Well it was nice speaking to you guys.
Better go to bed. Just to recap briefly the forecasts of the 2 systems as it stands tonight: Franklin will most likely spin off to sea with the trough shoving it ne. The wave crossing the Yucatan has potential to develop once it reaches the Bay of Campeche and will likely be driven into ne mexico or s texas. The high to its north will protect the north and eastern Gulf coasts. ill monitor both systems tomorrow
As usual he had some great answers......Oh..stormtop all betsy was was a rainy windy day I was six and played outside in Mobile,AL with paper boats in the storm drain.Biloxi may have got 110 ,Mobile didn't and mobile is well within the 400 miles you spoke of getting tropical storm force and we may have had that but No more than maybe 25mph.
argh thanks outrocket. maybe I should keep my mouth shut and just read these blogs LOL
ok the view from the latest ir loops indicate the low pressure system is still there and has been there all evening...if its moving its on a west heading and that helps out gert go towards the n or nnw...the high is not building in the central gulf pressures are falling in the the northern gulf and have been for the last 6 hours...this will only get worse as time goes by when gert begins to strengthen...it shows up clear on the water vapor loop also....im still sticking to a landfall on the central gilf coast on tuesday....also the storm should attain cat 3 strength...i dont know what you are seeing alec but you should see some change in the next advisory early tomorrow..i expect a hurr watch out for a portion of the gulf coast sometime late sunday night or early monday morning....things have not changed as usual the computers have gone to lunch on this one and i cant see them coming close...the disturbance is already 150 miles east where the nhc said it would come out...just a little for you to put in your equation tonight alec...i dont agree with you at all about your elongated imaginary high building over the central gulf coast especially with the cold front coming down monday....that will definitely suck this up north.........
NO emmy.Id miss your wit girl. keep on blogging just thought about it kinda snicked..did we cause 2005LOL..and that wrath from pollution be on us...was great..!!
I will venture a guess(and this is more instinct,but some meterology behind it). The wave over the Yucatan will develop but will make landfall over mexico or S. texas(probably mexico, but it depends on where the circulation actually devlops) as a fairly minor TS. We've all seen this time and time again. Generally it will begin to get its act together as it approaches the coast and just not have the time to really get going.
looks to me like ole franklin may be trying to get his act together.looks better than what the NHC described last update. Next update will tell the tale.
One of the big reasons stormfury was dropped was the realziation that hurricanes were far more dynamic and changing that they had thought--in cases where the wind velocity went down they couldn't tell whether it was the seeding or an eyewall replacement cycle. Eyewall replacement cycles were not understood when stormfury was initiated, and are poorly understood now.
I just looked at WV imagery as well as 500mb plots and surface plots. Does anyone else see the 500mb ridge ballooning NE in the center of the country? That alone would steer whatever is under it (Yucatan wave) underneath. That shortwave trough is moving through and not visibly amplifying much further south. Plus, when you have tropical systems in close proximity to each other (as in one storm following on the heals of another), the first storm tends to leave a weakness behind. This surface weakness creates a virtual alley-way for whatever is close behind. Emily made landfall a couple days ago and this system is too close to find its own way. Any thoughts?
agree there that and the fact after some wobbled even though it could have wobbled from eyewall replacement,they got blamed by those it wobbled into...
I'll add a thougt as far as the following the wake,Emily did play around awile I would imagine upwelling happend that area is closed all sides but to the North so I'd think the surface temps may cooler and definatly alot shallower than before.
Hi, new blogger here. In response to Stormtop's blog on Betsy vs Camille that mentions New Orleans, Carolyn Park and blowing up levees, that's great info, and I'd love to have a copy of the file. I'd like to offer a bit more. I grew up in Carolyn Park subdivision(that's a 'burb of New Orleans) which is in Arabi in St. Bernard Parish, below Jackson Barracks in Orleans Parish. Ours was the 2nd home in Phase II in the "back" or north end of the subdivision. I lived there from 1959 until 1970, and my parents lived there for 35 years. The section of levee that was blown up was in the lower Ninth Ward of Orleans Parish above Jackson Barracks, NOT Carolyn Park although it did cause flooding there. My uncle worked for the New Orleans Sewerage and Water Board. He called us around 10:00 PM the night Betsy hit and told us to GET OUT because they were going to blow the Industrial Canal levee on the lower Ninth Ward side because the river was rising so fast the French Quarter was starting to flood. The Industrial Canal is a manmade lock channel that connects the Mississippi River, MRGO and Lake Pontchartrain. For 25 years the fiction was promulgated that lower New Orleans and upper St. Bernard were flooded by a storm surge that came up the MRGO (ship channel). A lot of us knew better because Chalmette, which is below Carolyn Park, didn't flood, and it would have if the MRGO scenario was true. The water came from the OTHER direction, not from the MRGO. It was only after the statute of limitations for any lawsuits ran out that the truth about sacrificing the lower parish to save the city was released. There are flood pictures here:

http://www.st-bernard.la.us/emprep/betsy/betsy.htm

info on Betsy including incorrect cloud seeding statement:
http://www.st-bernard.la.us/emprep/betsy/betsy2.htm

Most of the pix with the frame houses and around the bridge are of the Ninth Ward. There are also pix of Jackson Barracks flooded. The pix of the brick homes with water nearly to the roofs are Carolyn Park. The pix of the 2 lane road, the destroyed Sebastian Roy School, and little church are Hopedale and Shell Beach and the other little hamlets in lower St. Bernard parish.

We were on vacation in Florida as Betsy approached that state. We left Miami and went up the coast to Jacksonville. It followed us. We left Jacksonville and headed home to New Orleans west across the panhandle. Betsy did a loop in the Atlantic back down to Miami, cut across the tip of Florida, and followed us right to our door. It was reported that Betsy was seeded and that was responsible for the erratic behavior and enormous size of the storm. Today those reports are officially denied, but I have conflicting newspaper clippings from 9/65 with statements by NWC that the storm was "going to be seeded" and "was seeded". Media interpretation of the facts can be erroneous! :-)
....im still sticking to a landfall on the central gilf coast on tuesday....also the storm should attain cat 3 strength...i dont know what you are seeing alec but you should see some change in the next advisory early tomorrow..i expect a hurr watch out for a portion of the gulf coast sometime late sunday night or early monday morning....things have not changed as usual the computers have gone to lunch on this one and i cant see them coming close...the disturbance is already 150 miles east where the nhc said it would come out..

Did you say the exact same thing about Emily, stormytop?

I agree that this blog has become a tabloid. That's a shame. I wish stormy would start his own blog and let us read how smart he is there. This is Dr. Masters' blog who is one of the best sources for scientific theory and reasoning regarding the tropics on the web. It's a shame to me that this blog is full of such meaningless drivel.

Maybe I just don't understand blogging and I'm way out of line. If so, my appologies.

Dr. Masters' Keep up the good work. For the most part, I enjoy reading comments and opinions from the other users. Very insightful.
MFolmer: You see that is why I thought lows followed lows, but was told that wasn't necessarily true...
(see outrocket, I couldn't stay quiet for too long)
And as for nsaltwater: we're all here to learn - yeah, some think outside the box, some in the box, some sit on the box and are willing to learn - that's what blogs are for...
The way I picture this BLOG is..There are alot of science minds here .I think everyone here is on Dr. Masters Blog becaues of his knowledge he can share. He has "sent me to the books" so to speak a few times and for that I'm grateful because I learn. There are Millions of people in the U.S. effected by these storms. I think this blog is for them.I dont belive Dr.Masters cares what education you have this blog is for all to interact regardless of education.We must have a place to share our knowledge. I dont think this is a "YOU MUST HAVE A PHD TO BE HERE BLOG".What I see is people inspire others to learn.I have been obsessed with hurricanes my whole life and today even if some dont like it we all gained knowledge and some of that knowledge was inspired by stormtop.Where you may not like him or think that he dont belong here is way off base because he sent alot of you to the BOOKS to show him wrong.So it dont matter what your education level is you can still envoke thought.This blog was not meant to be exclusive in my opinion.
EmmyRose: It's not true in ever situation, but has proven to be an acceptable idea in the past. Case in point: Henri's remnant circulation "leading the way" for Isabel's landfall. Sometimes it works and I think it's a good idea in this situation based on the overall look of the pattern.
Outrocket that was really lovely what you posted
I can also add that this blog helped me get thru Emily
on a scientific level - easing a lot of stress I would have had other wise (being an artist and all...)
This is truly one of the best blogs I've come across
For everyone that loves to argue and bicker on this blog...or on any blog, here is something to remember and live by. Arguing and bickering on a forum such as this is the same as competing in the special olympics. Even if you win, you're still retarded.
chrubi777 That was NOT lovely, what you posted.
That was totally uncalled for.
I have heard the weather term upper level TROF for years but really do not know what that is meteorologically. I understand high pressure and low pressure areas but not TROFs. Would someone enlighten me?

Thanks,
A Weather Novice
www.billblack.com
193. Fast5
"hwatcher", thanx for that excellant bit of history there.
Excellant link, ya'll should check out those pics.
194. deb1
chubri777, go and get a life, preferably somewhere else other than here.
195. Alec
A trough is an elongated area of low atmospheric pressure, usually not associated with a closed circulation, used to distinguish from a low. the opposite of a ridge.
196. Alec
chubri777 that was totoally uncalled for. If you dont like what anyone has to say dont come to this blog anymore. Be considerate of others opinions even though were not like Max Mayfield.
197. Alec
Latest models and analysis calls for no real change to previous forecasts. Franklin will be picked up by the trough and scoot out to sea. A high pressure ridge is forecasted to build across the deep south eary next week(which is also going to cause extreme heat because of compressional warming) This same ridge will block whatever develops from that Yucatan wave to not turn north. The wave is currently crossing the Yucatan wnw into the Bay of Campeche. It is a threat to ne Mexico or s Texas. It will not threaten the central or eastern gulf coasts.
Anyone know of a site where I can see a "spaghetti type" map using the FSU superensemble?
199. Alec
I dont think they have one like that. Was told last yr they arent upposed to release that kind of info. But they do have another version of it( i think) at moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
?? That link says does not exist...do you type "www" before the moe?
201. WSI
Hey Braveheart. I posted this link in Steve's blog as well...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/basicwx.htm

That should give you some good diagrams and explanations on some of the weather systems.
202. Alec
yeah. sorry 'bout that. Put a www before the website. Any more questions just ask.
203. Alec
Well it looks like a high in the n gulf is doing a good job steering that Yucatan system off to the wnw. pressures are high(took a look at observations, a mean of 1016 millibars) along the gulf coast, with temps the last few days in the mid 90s. Also the weak steering currents of diurnal storms are causing them to meander about. All these indicate a well developed high
new BAMM model is still sticking ot its guns and sending the storm west
205. Alec
WHich system? Franklin? I remember when Dennis was near sw FL all the models had it going for around FL/AL line except the UMET model which insisted for days it would steer into central LA. This bamm model still has to be considered but is an outlier. Will wait and see if it shifts with the rest of the guidance.
alec there is no high over the cetral gilf right now..the high you are speaking about is in the middle part of the us driving a front down towards the gulf...that in itself should cause gert to turn n or nnw...i just cant see the high you are looking at...and the pressure maps you been readin all the pressures in the northern gulf have been falling since yesterday...not a mal=jor fall a slow fall but a consistent one...look at the water vapor charts the low is still in the same place and you say computer models have it moving south..thats one reason i dont deal with the models.....the low is moving but its moving west...and last but least i think franklin is still influencing gert right now and this will be part of the mix..alec my forecast stands im more confident now then ever gert will affect the gulfcoast...it may move wnw when it gets in the gulf but only for a very short time ...the low to the south of it will influence the motion to the nnw or n and i will stick to my prediction sink or swim....
sorry, meant to say...sending franklin west...and i agree it seems to be way off considering all the other models
alec you know what you have developing and audrey scenario...look at the charts and see whats going on in the bay of campecehe...things are getting pretty hostile down there lots of shear..i dont think the low will be able to develop in the bay of campecehe it has to come out farther north like emily did...if this happens and im right this will be a doosy of a storm and rapid strengtning ...i just checked the water temps and they are at 90 degrees...this is looking really interesting later on.....
models are a joke they may get one storm right 1 out 0f 5 which i would not stake my life on a model prediction thats a fact...
210. Alec
Stormtop, if your looking at the water vapor loop from nhc, its not updated, the ir image is more up to date. What do make of pressures such as: Tallahassee(1016mb), pensacola(1018mb),New Orleans(1019mb),Galveston(1017mb)??? does it seem fair to say there's no high? The slow motion of diurnal storms suggest weak steering currents. Now if the pressures have been dropping then i suppose they were once 1020mb readings. Doesnt sound consistent with what im seeing. I still say a landfall somewhere in ne mexico/ s texas. This thing probably wont get to Cat 3 strength since it wont have enough time to develop.
211. deb1
Woah, it looks like the carribean and Atlantic aren't the only places where the earth has started to wake up early. An earthquake, variously reported as 5.7 and 6.0 magnitude, has just struck Tokyo.
212. Alec
Models are not a joke. If they were, do you thing the guys in the nhc would still have their jobs if the models helped 1 out of 5 times? Dont thinks so. Models arent completely 100% accurate but do help predictions most of the time. An example of this was with Emily. Since a high was to its north the entire time it was pretty easy to tell where it was going and the track over time became more accurate. You even said Emily would turn north that time but didnt happen. The gulf temps in the bay of Campeche are around 85-86 degrees.
213. Alec
Man, its weird: active early hurricane season, earthquake, record breaking heat in the west(talkin about breaking 100 yr heat records!), whats next????
isn't there a tropical system moving towards japan as well?
ok alec all i can say is i hope you are right on this one but isee something all together different..im worried about the frong coming down and if that happens and there is a high over the central gulf like you say elongated it will be squashed and that will give the storm no other way to go then n or nnw.the high you speak of is nor protecting texas...this high if its there will weaken in a new your second when that trough comes down here...alec can you just make a forecast and quit changing it go out on the limb and stick with it like im doing...im not changing because then you would say i was hedging which i never do...stop relying on these computer models and make your own forecast..i would like to hear from you a forecast you wont hedge on..you are definitely saying gert is going into mexico or the lower texas coast and that it wont be a srtong storm...can you committ to this alec and not change your forecast...you already know what mind is...
and dont leave out the south seas title wave alec...
Sotrmtop, why are you still calling it Gert? Its not even a depression yet. If you are not basing you forecast on models, which did very good jobs with emily and dennis, what are you basing it on?
PS. You did a bad job on emily by the way.
218. deb1
I thought with Emily, not just in the Gulf of Mexico, but right from where it started days before, the accuracy of the models was nothing short of astonishing. The NHC at one point, were forecasting like they had a very accurate crystal ball. They themselves kept hedging a bit, saying that their forecast could be 200nm out, but were they ever that far out? Franklin seems to be going as per their predictions too.
alec i just check pressures off ttrhe mexican coast..they are also 1015 mb 1012 mb 1013 mb...does that mean the high is also protecting mexico as well right now...there pressures dont seem to be falling...whats up?
deb if thats true bam model has it hitting florida..you think thats accurate..you think franklin will hit florida...
well storms breaking out over the north east gulf tell me that trough is sharpening as it moves east and will put the broom to ole franklin....
they were wrong with emily in the first one or two tracks, had it coming through central florida but after that they were incredibly close, heck i think the 5 day landfall forecast ended up with 50 miles
223. Alec
Ive never changed my forecast stormtop all along ive tried to expain to you it would hit ne mexico/ s texas using my thinking. I dont go with soley what models say. Dont directly imply i dont consider anything else. I use the models, pressure charts, the satellite loops, my interpretations and put them into a function of time. I have over the yrs seen trends and how atmosheric data affect these things. All things considered, my own forecast cant disagree with all the data im seeing. I say it will go to ne mexico or s texas. That front your talking of isnt going to even make it to the gulf. It is going to push off the mid atlantic.
totyota i was right on the stall not even the nhc predicted and the south movement once it got to the coast...i wasnt wrong like you said but why didnt you make a prediction..you are quick to criticize but you wont step up tp the plate will you...
right now, fankie is well south of the tropical forecast point, looks like it is moving slowly basically due east
226. WSI
How can you say the models are bad STORMTOP. They are a tool, used in tandem with many other tools. To totally disregard them is rather short sighted. You kept saying the models were out to lunch with Emily if I remember right. Many of them seem to do a fine job with Emily.. a lot better than your predictions. :)

In any case, the water temperature has been cooled down by Emily. It is still warm, but I am only finding maybe one or two spots of 90 degree water. Most of the water appears around 86 or so.
well its forecast to come down not toi the gulf judst notheof louisiana....that will influence the gert i seen this many times before ..a trough is a weakness and gert will feed on that weakness...im glad you committed to your forecast and you cant change it now...we both have out forecasts edged in stone...good deal..
way I see the disturbance thats NOT even named is...it will move west over SW gulf...and EMILY did spend some time there,upwelling occured,so temps may be warm at surface but no depth to the temprature...so enough fuel to support a storm,but maybe not enough to develop one before system goes int Mexico...
229. Alec
What your seeing is the affect of a high pressure anticyclone aloft. Theres a difference btwn surface highs and upper highs. Upper highs help cyclones develop, they dont block them.
86 is hot enough you know you only need water temps at 80 degrees to support tropical activity...
storm sure it may be 86 at surface,BUT that is SHALLOW..with the upwelling that occured the temps get way cooler with depth..I just dont see this developing much for THAT reason...
how bout 91 nearclearwater beach?Thats rocket fuel for hurricanes
233. Alec
Stormtop, i want to ask you why you want to criticize toyota. Thats a very benign statement toyota made. Why do you have to be so hostile to other comments? And what they are saying is TRUE!
also one storm will not affect the water a whole lot or there woundn't be hurricane seasons with more than 12 named storms
ok alec we will see....i do respect your opinion and you and i are the only ones that went out on a limb for a 72 hour forecast prediction...
alec i was just asking him to step up to the plate thats all..i didnt here a word from him until the storm was on shore..to me thats criticizing me..i cant see how you see it any other way..why wait till now to come out with that statement..
Jed....come on the wake of a hurrican on the surface of the water is ONLY effected a week or so....and ONS major storm as EMILY was can effect the depth of the water temperature for atleast a week...
winds up to 70 mph
by the way storm top if it DOES form into anything it will curve towards florida because of the same trough thats *supposed*to curve out to sea not towards LA
240. Alec
I do agree with the comment of water being upwelled and cooling the surface. But another thing to consider: that water down there isnt as deep as the atlantic, so its possible that the water is warm very deep and that emily didnt affect water temperature too much. Now in the atlantic the water in that deep ocean can upwell colder water since miles down temps, are probably much colder. Just something to consider.
i totally agre jed
But i dont think water in all areas is that cool,THE water is very warm out there,I mean look at water off the coast of clearwater beach its 91 degrees thats rocket fuel for hurricanes.
I dont think that trough will dig down to the south gulf....not this time of the year...September maybe...JULY no way
I for got to mention the storm so it sounded like I said *trough curves out to sea* instead of franklin curves out to sea.
i would tend to stay away from any "no way" statements in 2005

2 cat 4's in july...all of us would have said no way on july 1st
Yes but its right over LA so it will curve it towards the cedar key area(if y'all know where that is).
ok totyota i base my predictions on the satellite loops i see and water vapor charts....i do not base them on computers because 2 models i stand corrected have franklin going to florida on tues or wed....do you believe this will happen..the bam has stuck with this all the way...now you know why i dont put much faith in computers..
It dont have to be deep..heck I have been a diver for years..and you get down 100 feet in gulf anywhere its COLD and depth of water in bay of campeche is well over 100 feet except near shoar
and they had 25 ft seas with emily...so upwelling occured big time...only warm in whats called temperate zone at surface where light penetrates...
Everybody leave stormtop alone... I like him! :-)
re: the gulf water temperatures... here in Houston and most of Texas for the month of June there was almost no rain to speak of and borderline record highs almost the entire month... until all the rain in the past week or so we were in a moderate drought situation. Can't the lack of rain and high temperatures (mid to upper 90s) for a month help to raise the Gulf water temperatures by a couple of degrees more than they might usually be in the Gulf for this time of year?

I've been reading this blog since Emily... I am learning a lot about the different factors that affect the steering of tropical systems. These "arguments" or differences of opinion about where tropical cyclones might go are what this blog should be all about -- no need to change a thing!
so do I Kj..he atleast envokes thought..thats a good thing..LOL
veeery interesting discussion
stormtop..why do keep calling this system Gert? There is no Gert at the moment.

The 91 degree water off Clearwater beach is shallow water...it's the deeper waters further off shore that would be the source of any "feul"...they are only running in the 80's.
255. Alec
Well a majority of the models do predict Franklin to go out to sea. Dont think that just because one or some of them arent right sometimes, that we can throw them out. How would you forecast hurricanes without any models stormtop? Interested to know how you would go about it.
from the discussion


Most of the model guidance
...Excluding the much faster GFS and GFDL models...now slows down
Franklin through 72 hours and either dissipated the cyclone or
waits for another shortwave trough to pick up the cyclone and
accelerate it quickly to the northeast. Just one problem...all of
the models...to some degree...move the mid-level circulation slowly
back to the south and southwest after 72 hours. This scenario is
similar to the medium and deep BAM models.
Like the days before meterology ALEC...nature give you a days warning...ever watch the birds and critters before a huuricane?....they act erratic...old timers had no models,but they atleast had nature to let them know "IF" they payed attention...
also...you get whats called the "Brick Mortar Sky"..caused by high clouds of an approaching storm..
There is a correlation between full moons and earthquakes
(answering Deb1's Tokyo blog)
Glad to see and hear everyone this morning and wonderin
if Gert is to be or not to be...
Another hot humid day in Houston with rounds of storms this afternoon...
Chubri777 you can go straight to Hades with that comment.
260. Alec
The new forest package says Franklin may stall off the coast in 72 hrs. The bamm models are catching this more with time. Will wait and see if this evolves because the other models still show it tracking ne. This storm sure is hard to predict. Now with the wave in the Yucatan, its moving w or wnw into the bay of campeche. This thing shouln't develop into anything near major category strength since it wont spend that much time over water. Tropical depressions tend to spend a while organizing themselves before becoming huge storms. ne mexico or s texas looks like where this thing is heading to, based on recent observations.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2.cgi?time=2005072300&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

am i reading this right? this has franklin as a hurricane moving very slowly over the next 5 days not far from the NC coast
looking at visible satellite loop of system over Yucatan, I agree with Alec -- looks to be moving into NE Mexico/S TX. I agree also that if that is the case it probably won't have time to develop into much. if any low level circulation develops would most likely be in the Bay of Campache and with a W/WNW movement could not have much time to develop into anything serious... unless steering currents weaken and the system has more time to sit over the Gulf waters...
263. Alec
It shows Franklin slowing down off the se coast but has it steering off to the ne with time.
264. Alec
Franklin is nearing hurricane strength now. Much more convection wrapping around the center. The reason why it may stall in a few days after the tough picks it up, is that the trough may plow Franklin into the Bermuda high and will become wedged between the trough and the Bermuda high.
Outrocket's last post about observing nature made me smile, so I had to cross-post my new blogs first entry (this kind of applies to the low pressure in the bay of campeche):

Hello ya'll, after reading this blog I decided I would apply some old timers weather predictions and "sayings" to make my most best prediction to date!
The Wild Horse Desert of Texas is an area generally from Kingsville, Tx, to near the Rio Grande Valley. (not on any modern maps)
OK, the weather here this morning is middling hot and humid with no wind and a mostly clear sky. The Purple Sage Bushes ain't blooming so I don't see any rain for the next 24 hours, even tho the weatherguessers are calling for 70% chance of rain tomorrow(which we REALLY need since we have only had 1/2 inch in the last 2 months). Now I DID see a turtle crossing the road and I have seen a few taratulas and that is supposed to mean rain coming so the signals are kinda mixed! Rattlesnakes have been more active than usual this week which is normally a bad sign for rain too.
However, when you apply all of the formulas and computer models using the RAWM (Readily Available Wildlife Model) (tm), I am almost kinda partly sure the weather is gonna change! (hope this made ya'll smile!)
266. Alec
haha wildhorse! Did make me smile!
I like the RAWM....thats great!
WEll...did it ever rain there WildHorse LOL
269. Alec
so based on RAWM where do you think the wave over the Yucatan is going? lol My confidence level is getting pretty high that this blob(probably soon to be a depression) will strike ne mexico and not threaten the n or e gulf coasts. Those people in mexico dont need any more rain! Texas does. south texas may feel some of the affects of this system(rain).
Hi Emmy,
Nope, it hasn't rained except for that HUGE torrential downpour of 1/2 inch we got when Emily hit south of us. Sure wish you Houston folks would stop hogging up all the rain in Texas!
From the most recent NHC Outlook:

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Franklin...located about 245 miles north-northeast of Great Abaco Island in the northwestern Bahamas...and also about 635 miles southwest of Bermuda.
A tropical wave located over the western Yucatan Peninsula and the Eastern Bay of Campeche is producing widespread cloudiness and showers across much of the Yucatan Peninsula...southeastern Mexico...and the Bay of Campeche. Thunderstorm activity has decreased and has become less organized this morning. As a result ...The Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance flight previously scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon has been cancelled. However...conditions remain favorable for the tropical
wave to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so before the system reaches northeastern Mexico. A NOAA aircraft will be conducting a research flight into this general area today and will be sending back additional information on this system.

*****

Doesn't look like a CAT 3 hurricane gert by sunday evening to me, Stormtop.
I agree with Alec that this thing headed to the Bay of Campeche will impact Tx/Mex border which means that WildHorse will continue to get this 1/2 inch of rain and Houston will float on...
Better wrangle up some rattlers there Wild Horse - get them a'movin...if ya want more rain...oh, and don't forgit them bees too
Alex,
RAWM isn't gonna be updated til oh, I dunno, sometime around 2ish or whenever I get to go out and look across the pasture and crunch all the numbers!

Seriously, that low over Bay of Campeche doesn't look too bad this morning, using DER (dead-eye reckoning), but I imagine we might get some rain out of it...or maybe not!
274. Alec
The huge saharan dust swirl's headed for the Eastern Caribbean. That system over the Yucatan has lost lots of convection because its warm water supply was cut off. This could still become something as it exits the Yucatan into the bay of Campeche, but not much strengthening into anything monsterous.
275. Alec
recent pressure readings across the gulf coast:Tampa(1018mb), Tallahassee(1018mb), Pensacola(1019mb), New Orleans(1019mb), Galveston(1019mb),Brownsville(1018mb). seems to indicate that the high over the n gulf is pretty strong. Thats the mechanism that will steer this blog w to wnw for the duration of its journey.
It's strong alec,Im in Mobile,al..and its muggy and stagnant..we are under a dome of hugh presuure
277. deb1
There looks to be some development in the SW of the Gulf, but if it heads west, how is it going to have time to develop much? It's so close to the coast already it looks like it would cross the coast well south of where Emily crossed.
278. deb1
Stormtop, the NHC forecast Franklin to start heading NE, and so do some of the models. As to the models being a bit off for 72 hours out, well, I would expect them to be. So far from what we have seen this season, a storm, if it decides to form, takes hours rather than days. Nothing to stop it, over time, doing a Jeanne loop I suppose and changing it's track to SW, back towards Florida, but there's a high on the other side of Florida. I thought highs repel storms and lows attract them?
279. Alec
Very much may be the case. It is on a westerly track. I am much more confident with the high to its north that it will hit ne mexico. I can now narrow down the chances of it hitting the lower texas coast with its forecasted movement. Wheres the turn to the north you were forecasting Stormtop? That upper level low in the bay has been retreating away just as the models, upper air charts, and i have been saying a couple days ago.
280. Alec
Im talkin about that wave in the bay not franklin the last post.
I would love to read steve Gregory's BLOG..I can open all BLOGS here but HIS..do any of you have the same problem?? Any Ideas???
Hello everyone........theres a upper level low over florida appearing to be moving SSW which would hurt franklin a little....but that in association with the trough coming southeastward, it gets complicated......Im in orlando and we have thunderstorms approaching from the west. They appear to be pretty nasty.....It would not surprise me to see franklin slow down and maybe do a Jeanne loop. The angle of the trough is such that it will have to wait for the next trough......it just depends on the latitude, and according to the NHC, its farther south than anticipated....
283. Alec
Now with franklin, you're right about highs repelling these storms since low pressure(Franklin) doesnt go to high pressure but travels to lower pressure(called the path of least resistance) Now a high in the northern gulf and the bermuda high has sandwiched Franklin as with the trough.
I agree with Alec - I think this thing will just give Texas "the wave" no pun intended but go off into NE Mexico
I dont think it has much time to develop with the high being so strong over here.
Hey guys look at the water vapor imagery........like mr masters said, its anyones guess where franklin will go depending on the timing of numerous features.....as for the Bay of Campece....it wont have enough time to do anything before heading over mexico......have a good day guys.....
I suspect that the system in the gulf still has a chance to develop, but will be hard pressed even to make it to storm status. This isn't uncommon and we've seen many of these come off the yucatan, take a day to get organized, then approach land. This is most likely here.

Stormtop, I see this forum as a chance to explain and increase understanding for most people. Dr. Jeff Masters does a wonderful job explaining these systems. Due to my background I rarely see something I didn't know, but sometimes I do and thats wonderful to have happen after watching these storms for a while. People here also see things from different angles and sometimes seeing the samw thing from a different view is very helpful. This is one reason that rarely a person will get their bachelors,masters and doctorate from the same school.

Also the company here is excellent. One of the most important things is science is to see events honestly and learn from errors. So when a storm doesn't act like you expect, see why and then next time make adjustments. I like your post Stormtop, a person like you is necessary to make us all have second thoughts, so keep it up. But also make adjustments.
287. Alec
Well it appears that this low over florida is helping to keep Franklin off the east coast of FL. The high just west of FL would fill in even if this upper low went south away from FL. So it appears that Franklin is sandwiched.
Outrocket, I am in Baldwin County next door to you and I have no problem reading Steve Gregory's blog. Not sure why you are.
Umm there is no low over florida and one thing I want to stress here is that the models that DO take franklin out to sea leave the mid - level circulation behing and slowly drop it back to the southwest and west towards florida under favorable conditions for development,realize also that if this trough does not pick up this storm it will possibly loop back towards the Florida coast as a decent or major storm like Jeanne did.
290. Alec
Well looking at the NHC IR satellite loop there does appear to be a counterclockwise feature just west of Franklin
Jedkins look at the water vapor loops. You can see the low over Florida easily.
Jedkins, the low over Florida is in the upper levels. It is easy to see on the water vapor loop.
Mr Jedkins....please go to the NHC web page and look at the water vapor imagery on storm floater #2, you will see the rotation....(orlando area)Its storming here at the moment which is being cause in part by the upper low....normally we would be dry because of the subsidence of Franklin.....
294. Alec
Everyone, at the NHC satellite page the IR loop is updated. The water vapor and visible loops are NOT updated, take a look.
Thats why it coul loop south of there dont count this one out for florida at all,thats why not enough people were perpared for jeanne it seem to be a storm that would turn out to sea but it did NOT,trust me it would be safe to watch it for anyone who lives here in florida like I do though I live near tampa on the west coast.
296. deb1
There are lows along the NE coast of the US at the moment, certainly well north of Florida. Franklin's heading NE, so towards N, yet away E from those lows. Given their pressure is currenlty lower than Franklin's latest reported pressure, maybe this will cause it to track further north as opposed to east. Even if instead it swung round in a Jeanne style loop, I don't see it hitting Florida. The high pressure over the northern part of the gulf of Mexico would stop its progress west.

As to BAMS not being that accurate, Stormtop, it's a forecast taking input from another forecast (aviation) so maybe that accounts for it being a bit of at times.

For those asking about the computer models and where to find their forecasts, I thought this site has a good overview of the various outputs from models all in one spot and is even updated regularly: http://jrscience.wcp.muohio.edu/coriolis/computermodels.html
hawkeye you are correct at surface most of fl is in the 1014 to 1017 mb range..but above at 500mb level and up pressure is lower which does mean an upper level low riding over that dome..
Not to mention the upper low is very weak not cuasing much convewtion im not saying this is iminent im saying its possible understand?The low should weakin and not only that there is no high to the southwest of franklin so it could move around the low(if will still be there)if it is not picked up by the trough which is weakining near the end which is supposed to pick up the trough which im watching very closly beacause the fact that part of the trough seems to be dying out.
Ilso im NOT relying on bamm whatsoever beacause its not taking a track like the possibility I am mentioning,look there is no high to block this storm from going over Florida, there is a low which could take it more over southern Florida then move northwest around the low, if it happens to miss the trough that is.
Another good website is the INTERACTIVE WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK........WWW.IWIN.NOAA.GOV/ just click on automation and then the state of florida and then on any city you want.......forecasts....discussions from the forecasters themselves....its really neat.....
301. Alec
I agree with deb1. High pressure in the n gulf would prevent Franklin's progress westward. If the upper low over FL moved south i think the displaced pressure is going to cause higher pressure from the high over the n gulf to fill in.(high pressure always goes to low pressure-a rule in physics)
NO high??...how do you explain the readings at surface for your AREA Jed???? Look at the latest readings for TAMPA if 30.06 is not HIGH pressure then I'm not breathing either...LOL
Typically tropical storms follow upper level lows......franklin is in an environment thats difficult to predict any direction with strong conviction.........it has easterlies to the south, a trough to the north that appears to of shut the door on anymore progress to the north.....an upper low, very close to its west.........pick your poison.....its not going to move anywhere fast.....finally it has stopped storming here.....
304. Alec
haha outrocket, i took readings all across the gulf coast recently and their pretty high (around 1017-1019mb) That definitely supports a high over the n gulf.
Yes of course there is a high over the are but storm travel around THE edge tof ridges which would take it acroos the state at first then loop southwest more towards the punta gorda region then due west.
Deb1, other features steer the storm, the storm isn't attracted to them. For example, with a trough you get southerly or SE flow east of the sytem. Thus a hurricane to its e will move N or NE. With a high like we have now, you have a e-w flow south of it. Thus a sytem will move w-wnw like emily did. Whenyou hear people mention a weakness, that means that the high is broken down there. Well with the flow around a high being clockwise as you get to the w side of a ridge the storm turns Nw. Also if you have a low that causes this weakness(often a tough north of the subtropical ridge will break it down south of it). The S flow around this will cause the storm to accelerate as it gets to the ridge axis(think of a ridge like mountains, the ridge axis are the highest mountains) and also bend it to the N or NE.

Also remember that the stronger the storm generally it will be controlled by the higher levels. Thus young sytems are controlled by the trade winds until they develop. This is why the odds of hitting land decrease when a storm forms further out. It will grow and most likly meet a weakness before it gets across.
yes and that is NORTH GULF not the central or southern gulf the tendancy is for storms to travel around a high not hit it like its a raod block and turn the other way.
And yes you are right txweather.
Jed the pressure in Miami is 30.07...which is to YOUR east..and SOUTH.........
My gut is telling me its going to hit North Carolina.
Also that is true I am not making it as if it WILL go towards florida im saying its a possibility that needs to payed attention to not forgotten like jeanne did, people on the east coast of florida did not take it siriously enough and there were many who forgot that there was a hurricane out there.
312. Alec
Well Jedkins, if this Franklin would curve sw into sw FL it would have to fight the upper low first. I do agree that storms go around the periphery of highs. But think about the angle between the high and Franklin. Franklin is on the east side of the n gulf high. Dont think Franklin would dive southward and and fight the steering currents with a high to its right.
That really doesnt mean much just look at last year we had pressures of about what they are in miami when francis and jeane came just a little North of here there is always going to be higher pressure in some areas and lower pressure in others but the main high is over northern gulf not sousthern or central understand now?
last thoughts before I go..IF franklin hangs around a few days it will be fun to see how the sarahan dust plays into it...Have a great day all!!! Enjoyed very much.
no I dont understand..sorry but pressure reading for the whole state of florida are high at the surface..
Saharan dust?Ithink most of that will be gone by the time that huge low gets here.
yes Iknow that they are but the main high pressure area is in the northern gulf,look we all have are oppinions I think we should stop arguing beacause I mentioned this possible path as a possibility.
Also think abouth this, if Franklin does stall out it will have a period of upwelling beneath. This will cause it to weaken. Remember storms this small(almost a midget storm) tend to strengthen and weaken quickly and are supervulnerable to any negative factors. So its possible that this storm will weaken and in that case it is time for the shallow bam or just look at the low level winds.
Look at the lates sattelite immagery it seems to be driffting se thats interesting...though this could be temporary but it sure looks ominous,alll I will say is watch this one closely.
320. Alec
I totally agree jedkins. Watch Franklin cautiously. Now that system in the S gulf hasn't done much today. Looks like it may not even get to hurricane strength even if it did develop. That thing will move into ne mexico. More confident about that than with Franklin. Keep watching those bamm models to see what they do.
yes but I didnt say it will stall out though besides its not quite as small as it was earlier their are many different reasons why its a small storm for on there is a bit of a sqeeze play for the moment but that has loosened up a little and if sqeeze play goes away the storm should get much larger.
Also a good satellite link, i'm sure its been posted before, but is a good one. Different type of images, very useful.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
yes this thing could perform a jeanne loop and dont be shocked if it happens cause i have stressed this as a possible sinario.
324. WSI
You all should look over at Steve's blog and check out the two links he posted. Very cool links.
It wouldnt work for me its said couldn't find any results thats a pain oh well.
Irekon ill check em.
Well the NHC just issued a statement on the Bay of Campeche system. Could well be a TD soon with TS watches and warnings. I guess my prediction was accurate from last night. I'd almost given up hope it would develp at all.
So the potential "Gert" seems to have fizzled out. Also that storm at 50W/10N is gone. South America ate it up.

So whats left? A large wave out in the Atlantic that is being beat up by a large low pressure system. The whole atlantic basin does not look very promissing right now. (Except Franklin, which will be gone in 5 days affecting only the northern Bahamas and possibly Bermuda.)
Ok, so what are they saying about the potential Gert? Move towards Mexico or follow a StormTop prediction?
Looks like Mexico will get hit again. . by a tropical storm. So much for the stormtop prediction
331. Alec
Totally agree with you. Doesnt it seem like the high to its north did the same thing as emily-protect the north and eastern gulf coasts? this thing will nail nw mexican gulf just as ive been predicting for the last couple of days. Dont see it a cat3 or massive monster like stormtop predicted. But franklin seems to be doing weird stuff. My thinking is it will go out to sea in a couple of days.
I dont know, i dont trust the NHC on this one. The system does not look strong enough at all. I see very little circulation. Looks too weak to be even a depression to me.

(if you didnt notice. . i seem to be thinking out "loud")
The lastest GFS shows a stationary or drift to the south and the BAMM shows it coming this way(florida).....thats 2 out 4 from the 8AM models.....the nogaps will be done again tonight at 8PM.....thats very interesting along with the 11AM discussion from the NHC....
Tes thats why I am watcthing this closely just look at the latest infared imagery,it doesn't seem to be moving northeast at all anymore it looks like it also has slowed down and moving southeast at the moment,oh and use the WU zoom sattelite its very up to date and the storm is in its veiwing range.
335. Alec
The latest model output shows the bamm model has shifted toward the other guidance. Looking more like Franklin will drift slowly ne then accelerate in a few days out to sea.
336. Alec
The se motion may just appear that way. I see the storm tops spreading se and convection firing in the southern portion of the system. I think its almost stalled.
Well im not following model guidance im not sayin that wthis thing WILL make a loop towards florida im just looking at it as a psssibility
Inever though the bamm was any good anyway.
The sw Gulf system has a large circulation, but it is very broad. There are no big blobs of convection, just scattered smaller stuff. Nothing super promising, frankly.
I agree Hawkeyewx, hardly a depression even unless it tightens up a little. I've seen waves with better criculation.
341. Alec
Another blog has been set up by Steve Masters. Check it out. This blog's had 240 comments so far
342. Alec
Pardon me - "Jeff" Masters
alec where is the high in the norhern gulf i surely dont see it from water vapor are satellite loops...please send me what you are seeing...this high first you say is elnogated and now its a strong high with no weakness..im not concerned about franklin but show me the high ..
344. Alec
Go to the next blog and ill explain again.
let me say this to all the board...this disturbance once it gets out over the gulf of mexico could go from a tropical depressionm to a cat 3 ...look what happened to fern in the guls lol the nhc didnt even know there was a hurricane out there...i clerly remeber that the first advisory issued fron the nhc was a hurricane warning for the souther yucatan..the storm was in the central gulf moving due south...im just pointing out this disturbance already is big in size and it would not take it long to strengtnen rapidly...so people around the gulf coast i would be vigilant..
Stormtop, I don't make predictions because I don't know enough about the subject. I leave that to the professionals like the NHC. Noone can say with 100% accuracy where one of these monsters will go but lately the NHC has been doing a commendable job. I wasn't critizing you, all I asked was why do you can this Gert when it is not even a depression yet. What I did critisize you for was with your forecast with Emily as many others have also noticed how wrong you were even though you won't admit it. If you would admit it when you are wrong then I would never say a word about it.
347. Alec
Stormtop, its not gonna have enough steam to blow into a cat 3. its moving west like i said and will hit mexico
348. pcs56
Just curious...why do so many meterologists (at least blogs I have seen on here) seem to despise the NHC and the NWS? What have they done that was so evil? I assumed they did the best they could with what they had. And as far as predicting where hurricanes were gonna go, over the last year, they have pretty much nailed them.
psc...what I see here is EGO..I think thats the reason,alot seem to think they are better than the NHC,some may be,most ARE NOT
Also what I've seen is alot here post several different scenarios...then when one of the 10 play out and it happens to be a little closer than the NHC..who only gives a few options ...they disregard the other 9...and claim they are better..
351. Alec
LOOKS LIKE IVE FOUND THE GOOD OLE DAYS!LOL
352. Alec
READ APPROXIMATELY 7 POSTS ABOVE TO SEE ST'S FORECAST!
Posted By: STORMTOP at 7:10 PM GMT on July 23, 2005.
let me say this to all the board...this disturbance once it gets out over the gulf of mexico could go from a tropical depressionm to a cat 3 ...look what happened to fern in the guls lol the nhc didnt even know there was a hurricane out there...i clerly remeber that the first advisory issued fron the nhc was a hurricane warning for the souther yucatan..the storm was in the central gulf moving due south...im just pointing out this disturbance already is big in size and it would not take it long to strengtnen rapidly...so people around the gulf coast i would be vigilant..

LOLOLOLOL!!!! HE ALWAYS SAYS THAT EVERYTHING IN THE GULF WILL BACOME A CAT 3 OR HIGHER! GERT WAS REALLY A WEAK TS!
354. Alec
WHERE IS EVERYONE...???
OMG ST'S FORECAST WAS SO USELESS LOL!!!!!
THAT'S AMAZING LOL!!! BUT NOT AS AMAZING AS ME...
well did you have a enough steam?
Where is the real David?
359. Alec
IM CONFUSED