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Fourth warmest winter on record for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:54 PM GMT on March 08, 2012

February is gone, and the non-winter of 2011 - 2012 is the history books as the fourth warmest in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center yesterday. The winter average temperature of 36.8°F was just 0.4°F cooler than the warmest winter on record, the winter of 1999 - 2000. If you lived in the Northern Plains, Midwest, Southeast and Northeast, it seemed like winter never really arrived this year--27 states in this region had top-ten warmest winters. Across the U.S., only New Mexico (41st coolest) and Alaska (35th coolest) had winter temperatures colder than average. According to NOAA's Climate Extremes Index, the percent area of the U.S. experiencing extremes in warm maximum temperatures (top 10% on record) was 49 percent--the 4th highest value since the index began being computed in 1911. Jackson, Kentucky, Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania, and Trenton, New Jersey all had their warmest winter on record.


Figure 1. Contiguous U.S. temperature rankings for the winter of 2011 - 2012 (the months of December - January - February.) The 117-year period of record begins in 1895, and each state is given a ranking based on how cold this winter was, relative to the other 116 years. Thus, a ranking of 116 means it was the 2nd warmest winter on record. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 2. Contiguous U.S. temperatures for winter (the months of December - January - February), from 1895 - 2012. The winter of 2011 - 2012 was the 4th warmest winter on record, behind 2000, 1999, and 1992. Winter temperatures have increased by abot 1.7°F per century (red linear trend line.) Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Third least snowy winter on record for the contiguous U.S.
Warm and dry conditions during the winter of 2011 - 2012 led to snow cover extent that was the 3rd lowest in the 46-year satellite record, according to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab. Snowfall was particularly low across parts of the West, where much of California, Nevada, and Arizona had a snowpack less than half of average. Fortunately, the West had a near-record snowpack the previous winter, so this year's lack on snow will not cause serious water availability problems during the summer. In the Upper Midwest, the lack of a winter snowpack will substantially reduce the chances of spring flooding along the Mississippi and Missouri rivers. NOAA issues their annual spring flood outlook on March 15, and it is likely to show a much lower risk of flooding compared to last year, when 1-in-100 to 1-in-500 year floods hit much of the Missouri and Lower Mississippi rivers. However, the remarkably low snow cover this winter over the Upper Midwest will allow soils to dry out much more quickly than usual, leading to increased chances of summer drought. The latest Drought Monitor map shows moderate to severe drought covering nearly all of Minnesota and Northwest Iowa; these regions are at high risk of suffering damaging drought conditions during the summer growing season.


Figure 3. State-by-state rankings of precipitation for the winter of 2011 - 2012. Four Western states had a top-ten driest winters on record, and Kansas had a top-ten wettest winter. Drought-stricken Texas, which entered the winter expecting drier than average conditions, since it was a La Niña year, lucked out, getting an unusually wet winter. Records go back to 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

A very mild winter for the Midwest
If you live in the Midwest, you saved a bundle this winter on heating and snow removal costs. In Minneapolis, where the low temperature falls below 0°F an average of 30 days each year, the temperature fell below zero on just two days. These days were January 18 and 19, when the low hit -1°F and -11°F, respectively. Since record keeping began in 1891, only one other winter has had so few below-zero days--the winter of 2001 - 2002. Third place is held by the winter of 1930 - 1931, with six below-zero days. Minneapolis has seen half of its usual snowfall this winter--just 22.1" as of March 7, which is 22.1" below the average of 44.2". The least snowy winter for Minneapolis occurred in the winter of 1930 - 1931, when just 14.2" of snow fell on the city.

Chicago has also seen far less snow than usual--just 19.8" as of March 7, 11.8" below their average. In a normal winter, there are 13 days with sub-zero temperatures in Chicago. The coldest it got in Chicago this winter was a relatively balmy 5°F on January 19. This is just one degree cooler than the warmest winter low temperature ever recorded in the city, which is 6°F. Here is a list of the winters in Chicago that have had no sub-zero temperatures, with the coldest temperature of the winter shown in parentheses:

1930-31 (6°F)
1959-60 (6°F)
1905-06 (6°F)
2011-12 (5°F)
1982-83 (3°F)
1938-39 (2°F)
1955-56 (2°F)
1931-32 (1°F)
1881-82 (1°F)
1936-37 (1°F)

NCDC's Dr. Deke Arndt has a two-minute video discussing the reasons for this year's warm winter. The primary factor was the position of the jet stream, which lay much farther north than usual.

I'll be back Monday at the latest with a new post.

Jeff Masters
Mild Winter
Mild Winter
With mild temps people are out riding their bikes.
March 6-7 aurora in Palmer Alaska
March 6-7 aurora in Palmer Alaska
(c) Rebecca Oprish Photography. If you share this picture anywhere, please be sure to credit the photographer.
A Little Light...
A Little Light...
Amazing what sunlight, river debris and a little skim of ice can produce!

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

YAY. That batch of rain to my south has just missed me...i reckon a stable atmosphere is too much for it to handle lol. Mid and low-level lapse rates are stable, there is no CAPE present...perfection for a good day:)
another active spot region moving into view this lower than the one just turning away

current area getting ready to fire again i believe
ECMWF still wants to bring a weak TC into northwest Australia in 6 days...NOGAPS/GFS dont show it
Magnitude 5.4 - NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012 March 09 17:25:33 UTC


Saturday, March 10, 2012 at 02:25:33 AM at epicenter


It's suppose to be 81 here on next Thursday.I wonder how June is going to look with all this warm weather coming so early.It's going to be pretty bad for my alergies.
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's suppose to be 81 here on next Thursday.I wonder how June is going to look with all this warm weather coming so early.It's going to be pretty bad for my alergies.
I feel your pain as for I too have the same terrible problem.  Sneeze, sneeze, sneeze, sneeze, sneeze, sneeze and that is in just a span of about 10 seconds, then that just repeats about every minute.  This is why I hate spring and love Winter..:)
Today the rain will probably be more isotropic/stratiform in nature with some elevated convection where banding sets up. While not excessively heavy in nature, some places could get larger quantities of rain due to the shear area of rainfall or where elevated banding occurs. The days I'm really interested in are tomorrow and/or Sunday, when the front retreats back north and develops a surface low. Some areas could get slammed if training convection sets up, especially if the storm takes on Maddox-like characteristics.
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's suppose to be 81 here on next Thursday.I wonder how June is going to look with all this warm weather coming so early.It's going to be pretty bad for my alergies.

Wow! That's all I can say
not looking to good for Houston today..

That is a really long cold front. 3000 miles maybe.
Quoting hydrus:
That is a really long cold front. 3000 miles maybe.

Maybe
Snowsqualls here in Southern Ontario. A whopping 0.1 inches remain on the ground from today after heavy snow hit this morning.



An epic cyclonic swirl swooping down toward Sudbury, Ontario.
Quoting Patrap:
Second 5 plus quake in the past Hour.

Magnitude 5.1 - OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012 March 09 18:19:02 UTC



That is another area that cannot seem to catch a break..............Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 5.1
Date-Time

Friday, March 09, 2012 at 18:19:02 UTC
Saturday, March 10, 2012 at 03:19:02 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 35.721°N, 142.057°E
Depth 28.9 km (18.0 miles)
Region OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 159 km (98 miles) ESE of Mito, Honshu, Japan
181 km (112 miles) SE of Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
208 km (129 miles) E of TOKYO, Japan
216 km (134 miles) ESE of Utsunomiya, Honshu, Japan
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 15.6 km (9.7 miles); depth +/- 7.5 km (4.7 miles)
Parameters NST=112, Nph=118, Dmin=355.1 km, Rmss=1.43 sec, Gp=115°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=8
Source

Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID usb0008eci
Quoting Patrap:


The Last was the 5.1 and it was very much Earth Directed and caused re-routing of High Alt Commercial Flights, commercial traffic from the N. Pole.

This latest 6.3 is a glancing blow and wasnt as "expansive" as the 5.1 event. So a Glancing blow is anticipated, but Aurora still may be possible in the Middle Latitudes...


The latest 6.3 was an M-class flare, the last one was an X-class flare which is much larger. Without the class of the flare 6.3 and 5.1 are meaningless.

Here this may help

img src="The Classification of X-ray Solar Flares
or "Solar Flare Alphabet Soup" A solar flare is an explosion on the Sun that happens when energy stored in twisted magnetic fields (usually above sunspots) is suddenly released. Flares produce a burst of radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum, from radio waves to x-rays and gamma-rays. [more information] Scientists classify solar flares according to their x-ray brightness in the wavelength range 1 to 8 Angstroms. There are 3 categories: X-class flares are big; they are major events that can trigger planet-wide radio blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms. M-class flares are medium-sized; they can cause brief radio blackouts that affect Earth's polar regions. Minor radiation storms sometimes follow an M-class flare. Compared to X- and M-class events, C-class flares are small with few noticeable consequences here on Earth. This figure shows a series of solar flares detected by NOAA satellites in July 2000:
Each category for x-ray flares has nine subdivisions ranging from, e.g., C1 to C9, M1 to M9, and X1 to X9. In this figure, the three indicated flares registered (from left to right) X2, M5, and X6. The X6 flare triggered a radiation storm around Earth nicknamed the Bastille Day event. Class Peak (W/m2)between 1 and 8 Angstroms B I < 10-6 C 10-6 < = I < 10-5 M 10-5 < = I < 10-4 X I > = 10-4">

Some pretty good thunderstorms firing off to my west and this is only the beginning as this activity will only increase in coverage and in intensity once the seabreeze collision happens.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Some pretty good thunderstorms firing off to my west and this is only the beginning as this activity will only increase in coverage and in intensity once the seabreeze collision happens.

The radar almost looks like summertime.:)
Quoting hydrus:
The radar almost looks like summertime.:)


Well it's 85 here with a dewpoint of 67 so we are definitely getting into the swing of summer around here. We may see this everyday thru most of next week with some days having higher coverage than others.



In case this interesting observation hasn't been mentioned on the blog yet:

Scientists Detect Seismic Signals from Tornado
ScienceDaily (Mar. 8, 2012) —
An Indiana University geophysical experiment detected unusual seismic signals associated with tornadoes that recently struck regions across the Midwest -- information that may have value for meteorologists studying the atmospheric activity that precedes tornado disasters. (More see link)

Anyway greetings over the pond, Barb
528. SoAl
It's 60F in Calgary Alberta today! Pretty balmy for the end of winter. Haven't heard from Environment Canada yet but it has been 10 or more degrees above normal for a majority of the fall and winter here.
This is from Brett Anderson at Accuweather... While I'm not a big fan of Accuweather, Brett is pretty good at what he does and this goes in line with what a lot of people are saying for the coming spring, summer, and hurricane season.

The new ECMWF seasonal forecast, which updates once a month is now released on the 8th of each month.

The model continues to forecast above normal temperatures across much of the eastern two-thirds of North America from the upcoming Spring and right into the summer, though it shows near-normal temperatures for the Northeast U.S. and most of eastern Canada this summer.

One other thing that was striking is that the model steadily weakens the La Nina this Spring and trends toward a weak El Nino later in the summer. Keep in mind, even if this happens, there is a lag effect and so the overall atmosphere could still have the look of a La Nina through the Spring and not show any influence from a weak El Nino until the end of the year or next year.
Also, the model is forecasting a busy hurricane/typhoon season for the central and western Pacific region, while a drier, quieter season is indicated for the Atlantic basin.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is from Brett Anderson at Accuweather... While I'm not a big fan of Accuweather, Brett is pretty good at what he does and this goes in line with what a lot of people are saying for the coming spring, summer, and hurricane season.

The new ECMWF seasonal forecast, which updates once a month is now released on the 8th of each month.

The model continues to forecast above normal temperatures across much of the eastern two-thirds of North America from the upcoming Spring and right into the summer, though it shows near-normal temperatures for the Northeast U.S. and most of eastern Canada this summer.

One other thing that was striking is that the model steadily weakens the La Nina this Spring and trends toward a weak El Nino later in the summer. Keep in mind, even if this happens, there is a lag effect and so the overall atmosphere could still have the look of a La Nina through the Spring and not show any influence from a weak El Nino until the end of the year or next year.
Also, the model is forecasting a busy hurricane/typhoon season for the central and western Pacific region, while a drier, quieter season is indicated for the Atlantic basin.



Do you have the link to Anderson's discussions?
Decent rains here lots of lightning and thunder some small hail also near Austin earlier.
Quoting SoAl:
It's 60F in Calgary Alberta today! Pretty balmy for the end of winter. Haven't heard from Environment Canada yet but it has been 10 or more degrees above normal for a majority of the fall and winter here.

That's 15*F warmer than it is here in Central Texas... :P
The storms seem to be initializing right along I-10. The group of storms with the highest reflectivity is headed straight for me, although they still have quite a bit of time before they reach here.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you have the link to Anderson's discussions?
Link
Quoting 1900hurricane:
The storms seem to be initializing right along I-10. The group of storms with the highest reflectivity is headed straight for me, although they still have quite a bit of time before they reach here.



I have been watching this same radar all day lol. Looks like the rain along the coast line is finally starting to materialize. Nothing heavy at the moment but if it can get going, it will look good for rain this afternoon/evening.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Link


Thank you for posting the link. I also follow him as he knows his stuff.
Quite an interesting sounding from the RUC:



The temp at 900 mb (or about a kilometer up) is almost 10*C (or 15-18*F) warmer than it is here at the surface! Also note the wind direction.
Event on the Limb is under way




www.solarham.com
Quoting Patrap:
Event on the Limb is under way




www.solarham.com
Strange weather on the Sun, strange weather on Earth. The Mayans may have been on to somethin..
Earlier today, Hawaii was hit by a waterspout/3" hail producing supercell...cool huh?


Image 1. Current radar imagery.
Quoting barbamz:
In case this interesting observation hasn't been mentioned on the blog yet:

Scientists Detect Seismic Signals from Tornado
ScienceDaily (Mar. 8, 2012) —
An Indiana University geophysical experiment detected unusual seismic signals associated with tornadoes that recently struck regions across the Midwest -- information that may have value for meteorologists studying the atmospheric activity that precedes tornado disasters. (More see link)

Anyway greetings over the pond, Barb


Thanks. Interesting article!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Earlier today, Hawaii was hit by a waterspout/3" hail producing supercell...cool huh?


Image 1. Current radar imagery.
Quoting Patrap:
Event on the Limb is under way




www.solarham.com


this one rides lower better aim for the deed
Quoting Patrap:
Event on the Limb is under way




www.solarham.com

Looks like we might be in for another one of those rattlings!If its not the ground that's shaking, its the heavens!
Lots of shocks around Japan and other backwaters of the pacific,( I wonder if its name has anything to do with pacify and peace etc?)
Here in Southern Spain, drought holds the sway and we have had only 2 days of rain this winter of any significance and they were not "Significant."almost none of the usual small rivers are running in the southern Andalusian area.
Given that we have 23% unemployment and cash is an historical subject, I noticed tonight that a lettuce costs about $2.50! Potatoes, $1 a pound!
More to come soon, summer just round the corner!!
One of the features of climate change is that nobody much seems to take the economic consequences of food shortages seriously;Yet!
Still I supose there will always be a savior in, "Burgernomics?"
When all that's left, the ones bankrolling all this , will find they cannot eat their money.

Quoting Patrap:
When all that's left, the ones bankrolling all this , will find they cannot eat their money.


Oh.
The gift the Gifty give us? To see ourselves as others see us?
Quoting hydrus:
Strange weather on the Sun, strange weather on Earth. The Mayans may have been on to somethin..


maybe
either way
we are on the way
to there point in time
and nothing of this earth
can stop it

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


maybe
either way
we are on the way
to there point in time
and nothing of this earth
can stop it


Its also "Strange people who are observing all this!"
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


maybe
either way
we are on the way
to there point in time
and nothing of this earth
can stop it

These are interesting times. I have to say, I dig a lot of the posts I see here. Very enlightening to be sure. It is cool to know that people have the same interests as I do in all the sciences, and thanks to modern technology, can share our thoughts on the universe..:)
Quoting Patrap:

.."The Sun is the same in a relative way but your older, and shorter of breath, and one day closer to death"..

I cant do the links from here but:-
Saucerful of secrets:-
Set the controls for the heart of the Sun!
If somebody could put the link up? Who has already found a way round embedding as Keeper did a few days ago?
A waterspout made land fall in Lanikai and tore up a street! An hour earlier we had golf ball sized hail raining down for about 45 minutes....Welcome to paradise...

(Windward Oahu)


Unusual event in Hawaii.
Good rest of the day to you, wubloggers.
Brand new footage filmed from a super 8 camera of the Challenger disaster..
Link
Now..you can have this to chew on for the weekend. Their way ends today at 6:59pm CDT.

The new Way begins at 7,

..firm.


Banks Repaid Fed Bailout With Other Fed Money: Government Report


...and by the way.

.."maybe note the date and views above in the video."

Our new connectivity has arrived.

Be part of it.

The old way is finished.

A new Dawn comes in the morning.
Quoting PlazaRed:

Its also "Strange people who are observing all this!"
Nothin wrong with strange. The good kind of strange anyway..jmo
Koji has reached hurricane status...

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Koji has reached hurricane status...


The picture in this post doesn't do Koji justice... It's actually becoming a decent storm...

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Koji has reached hurricane status...



Not sure how, but ok... (atleast it looks more like a hurricane than Nate did)

It doesn't have a very well defined eye though.



So no clue as to how it got classified as one.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The picture in this post doesn't do Koji justice... It's actually becoming a decent storm...


Visible satellite imagery always make storms /look/ more defined than they actually are. Using infrared imagery is a good choice. :)
Quoting hydrus:
Nothin wrong with strange. The good kind of strange anyway..jmo

To the few are given, the light to illuminate the way!
To the many are given the choice to observe.
To all are given the gifts of comprehension!
To mankind was given the burden, one day to choose?
Actually, I can see why; right when Koji was upgraded:



So it's on a weakening phase now.
Quoting yqt1001:
Actually, I can see why; right when Koji was upgraded:



So it's on a weakening phase now.

Probably explains this:

In other news, the GFS continues to show two good Severe Weather days on the 18th and 19th. Whether this pans or not is yet to be seen, but the model has been consistently showing it for several days.



Enjoy the break while it lasts because we're almost to the real Severe Weather season.
Oh environment Canada.your poor website interface can be funny sometimes.



(13C = 55F, and yes that is "Snow and high of 13C")

Environment Canada doesn't post lows in the afternoon for the next day. Of course, it will be snowing in the middle of the night when the temperature is -9C, but still..sure looks like we will get snow during one of the hottest days in months. :P
Quoting yqt1001:
Oh environment Canada.your poor website interface can be funny sometimes.



(13C = 55F, and yes that is "Snow and high of 13C")

Environment Canada doesn't post lows in the afternoon for the next day. Of course, it will be snowing in the middle of the night when the temperature is -3C, but still..sure looks like we will get snow during one of the hottest days in months. :P

You realize the icon could be for the morning hours, right??
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You realize the icon could be for the morning hours, right??


That would be the whole sentence of "Of course, it will be snowing in the middle of the night when the temperature is -9C" was for. After all, it's just the way Environment Canada designed their website that made it like that. :P
www.solarham.com

added 3/9/2012 @ 18:10 UTC

Another Incoming CME

According to the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), the CME caused by the M6.3 Solar Flare early this morning, will have an Earth bound component that will likely re-intensify the Geomagnetic Storming on March 11th. Strong Geomagnetic Storming will again be possible.




The new WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction shows an impact Early Sunday morning at 07:00 UTC with a Solar Wind increase to over 600 km/s. Click HERE to watch the latest model run. Stay Tuned.
Looks like a lot of rain on the way for many, especially out west...

Quoting hydrus:
Love Pink Floyd. Been listening to them since childhood.

I saw them twice live in their heyday!
Once about 1968 they were Booed off stage and we were all given free tickets to the next weeks gig of Simon Dupree and the big Sound or something like that,
The next time was with 200,000 people at Bath they came on after Zappa and B4 Jefferson Airplane. Man you should have been at that concert, not to mention Santana, Led Zeppelin. Butterfield Blues band, Stepenwolf, etc.
Sound
21:55 UTC



The Active Sunspot 1428 below 1429 experienced a ejection/flare event.

It began between now and the 21:25 Image

A very active Earth Facing Sol this afternoon
Quoting hydrus:
Love Pink Floyd. Been listening to them since childhood.

Try this one, from saucerful of secrets:-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngHbfapeZ9Q

Sorry I cant link it direct.
Quoting hydrus:
Strange weather on the Sun, strange weather on Earth. The Mayans may have been on to somethin..



There will eventually be an end, but the Mayans aren't exactly the most trustworthy source to know how it will...
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
A waterspout made land fall in Lanikai and tore up a street! An hour earlier we had golf ball sized hail raining down for about 45 minutes....Welcome to paradise...

(Windward Oahu)


Unusual event in Hawaii.
Good rest of the day to you, wubloggers.



That is crazy, parts of Hawaii do get A LOT of rain and thunderstorms, but hail and tornadoes from what I know aren't exactly common place there... lol
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Looks like a lot of rain on the way for many, especially out west...




OH LOOK! Below normal precip for Florida again! What a shocker!(major sarcasm)



I wonder when we will ever see a state wide extended period of average or above average precip down here? We are are always frigging below normal these days...
Quoting Jedkins01:



OH LOOK! Below normal precip for Florida again! What a shocker!(major sarcasm)



I wonder when we will ever see a state wide extended period of average or above average precip down here? We are are always frigging below normal these days...

Yeah, the east will be missing out on the moisture... Last few summers have been very dry up here also.
Noting:-578. Jedkins01:-
"OH LOOK! Below normal precip for Florida again! What a shocker!(major sarcasm)"

Not to be a downcaster on your desires for a good soaking but if you just hang on in there for a little while longer you might be a trifle surprised and get a full 12 inches in a few hours, hopefully with not too strong a cyclonic breeze for accompaniment.
Quoting hydrus:
Love Pink Floyd. Been listening to them since childhood.
What song do you like better, "Time" or "Have a cigar"?
[paraphrasing] Coverage for wind, hail and sinkhole damage has been stripped from many basic homeowner policies. Most cutbacks have occurred or are occurring in coastal states and areas where severe weather had recently wreaked havoc.
eg:
. Allstate reduced coverage for roof replacements for new customers in Kansas after doing the same in Oklahoma late last year.
. . North Carolina Farm Bureau plans to eliminate wind damage coverage from 15,000 policies as they come up for renewal.
. State Farm dropped wind and hail coverage on roughly 29,000 residential properties owned by small landlords in southern Louisiana.
. In Texas, 67% of homeowner insurance policies provide less coverage for damage to foundations and slabs and 72% offer less coverage for water backups from sewers and drains [undoubtedly due to massive damage to such structures cause by earth movement due to the severe drought]
87% have lessened coverage for leaks from plumbing, heating or air conditioning systems.
Up until 2003 when the state legislature deregulated insurance policy forms, this coverage was included in standard homeowner policies
. Florida largest insurer, state-run Citizens Property Insurance, is eliminating coverage for external structures including screened porches, patios and gazebos.
. Sinkhole claims filed with Citizens Property Insurance totaled roughly 4,440 in 2011, nearly triple the amount in 2007. So the Florida legislature enacted reforms that gave insurers leeway with how they provide sinkhole coverage, and redefined 'sinkhole loss' as including structural damage but not "cosmetic damage". ie If a sinkhole eats your backyard, that's cosmetic damage... and ya don't get paid for the decrease in property value.
With the reforms in place, Citizens Property Insurance Corp is instituting a 10% deductible for sinkholes when the ground collapses, and is reducing personal liability coverage to $100,000 from $300,000. State Farm removed sinkhole coverage in the 16 counties of central Florida that had the highest average sinkhole cost per policy, then offered policyholders the option to buy it back as a separate rider on their policy.
Quoting aspectre:
[paraphrasing] Coverage for wind, hail and sinkhole damage has been stripped from many basic homeowner policies. Most cutbacks have occurred or are occurring in coastal states and areas where severe weather had recently wreaked havoc.
eg:
. Allstate reduced coverage for roof replacements for new customers in Kansas after doing the same in Oklahoma late last year.
. The North Carolina Farm Bureau plans to eliminate wind damage coverage for many homes in the state.
. State Farm, which dropped wind and hail coverage in southern Louisiana last year.
. In Texas, 67% of homeowner insurance policies provide less coverage for damage to foundations and slabs and 72% offer less coverage for water backups from sewers and drains [undoubtedly due to massive damage to such structures cause by earth movement due to the severe drought]
87% have lessened coverage for leaks from plumbing, heating or air conditioning systems.
Up until 2003 when the state legislature deregulated insurance policy forms, this coverage was included in standard homeowner policies
. North Carolina Farm Bureau plans to eliminate wind damage coverage from 15,000 policies as they come up for renewal.
. State Farm dropped wind and hail coverage on roughly 29,000 residential properties owned by small landlords in southern Louisiana.
. Florida largest insurer, state-run Citizens Property Insurance, is eliminating coverage for external structures including screened porches, patios and gazebos.
. Sinkhole claims filed with Citizens Property Insurance totaled roughly 4,440 in 2011, nearly triple the amount in 2007.
So the Florida legislature enacted reforms that gave insurers leeway with how they provide sinkhole coverage, and redefined 'sinkhole loss' as including structural damage but not "cosmetic damage". ie If a sinkhole eats your backyard, that's cosmetic damage... and ya don't get paid for the decrease in property value.
With the reforms in place, Citizens Property Insurance Corp is instituting a 10% deductible for sinkholes when the ground collapses, and is reducing personal liability coverage to $100,000 from $300,000. State Farm removed sinkhole coverage in the 16 counties of central Florida that had the highest average sinkhole cost per policy, then offered policyholders the option to buy it back as a separate rider on their policy.


The insurers of insurers are getting hit hard too. Claims have been increasing steadily for at least a few decades now.
In honor of my last year on Earth and the end of the world...

Lol.

Quoting Patrap:


.."The Sun is the same in a relative way but your older, and shorter of breath, and one day closer to death"..
Great song, love pink floyd. Here's another good one of that same album


586. txjac
Finally getting our rain in west Houston. Live about six miles from work and it took me 45 minutes to get home. Horrible traffic and starting to collet ..could see some flooding
587. txjac
Quoting txjac:
Finally getting our rain in west Houston. Live about six miles from work and it took me 45 minutes to get home. Horrible traffic and starting to collet ..could see some flooding


And we lost electric about two hours ago ...back on by the time I got home though
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In honor of my last year on Earth and the end of the world...

Lol.



That's a pretty cool one, actually.
--
Weather here largely normal, fairly typical for March - interspersed with some milder days. Been a little wetter than the last two bone dry springs, but it's only the beginning.
--
And in case people hadn't noticed on the economic front, Greece has defaulted (technically and orderly as opposed to the messy and chaotic scenario, though that may come about anyway).
589. txjac
Quoting Cotillion:


That's a pretty cool one, actually.
--
Weather here largely normal, fairly typical for March - interspersed with some milder days. Been a little wetter than the last two bone dry springs, but it's only the beginning.
--
And in case people hadn't noticed on the economic front, Greece has defaulted (technically and orderly as opposed to the messy and chaotic scenario, though that may come about anyway).


well the news on Greece bites ...
Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Korea announced contaminated Japanese sea food is increasing.

From last April to the end of 2011, they measured cesium from 21 imported sea food (148.8 tones) from Japan, but it’s already 32 imported sea food (881.3 tones) from the beginning of 2012 to 3/2/2012. Most of them are mackerel and Alaska pollack.

The highest reading was 97.9 Bq/Kg from pollack but because they were all under the korean safety limit, all of them have been distributed in Korean market.

"The dust blowing from Tularosa Basin was so dense, we could observe the sun with the naked eye--and there was sunspot AR1429. Wow!" says Tremblay.
More star shower on the way...
Crittenden, Kentucky tornado has been upgraded to an EF4.


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
519 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2012

...A PORTION OF THE TORNADO PATH THROUGH PINER KENTUCKY IN SOUTHWEST
KENTON COUNTY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EF4 LEVEL TORNADO...

LOCATION...CRITTENDEN AND PINER IN GRANT AND KENTON COUNTY KENTUCKY
DATE...MARCH 2 2012
ESTIMATED TIME...430 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF4
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...175 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...ONE HALF MILE
PATH LENGTH...10 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...38.791N/84.633W
ENDING LAT/LON...38.8324N/84.459W
* FATALITIES...4
* INJURIES...8

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...
WITH ADDITIONAL PHOTOS AND DETAILS RECEIVED FROM KENTON COUNTY
SHERIFFS OFFICE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON OH
HAS CONFIRMED THAT A PORTION OF THE MARCH 2 2012 GRANT AND KENTON
COUNTY TORNADO DID REACH THE EF4 THRESHOLD.

THE DAMAGE IN GRANT COUNTY...SPECIFICALLY IN THE HARVESTERS
SUBDIVISION...REMAINS IN THE LOW TO MID EF3 CATEGORY...AS AT LEAST
SOME EXTERIOR AND MOST INTERIOR WALLS WERE STANDING WHERE THE
DAMAGE WAS THE WORST. THIS OCCURRED AT THE WEST END OF BARLEY
CIRCLE. MOST OF THE DAMAGE IN THE SUBDIVISION WAS EF1 TO EF2.

IMMEDIATELY AS THE TORNADO CROSSED FROM WEST TO EAST OF INTERSTATE
75...THE STORM STRENGTHENED TO EF4 LEVEL WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 175
MPH. WHILE A TOTAL OF FIVE SINGLE FAMILY HOMES WERE DESTROYED TO
THEIR FOUNDATIONS IN THE AREA...AT LEAST TWO OF THESE HOMES MET THE
EF4 CRITERIA OF SUFFICIENT FOUNDATION STRAPPING/BOLTING.

ALL 4 FATALITIES WITH THIS TORNADO OCCURRED WITHIN THE AREA OF EF4
LEVEL DAMAGE.

THE EF4 LEVEL DAMAGE WAS FOUND FROM THE EAST SIDE OF INTERSTATE 75
TO THE NORTH END OF OLD LEXINGTON PIKE...WHERE 2 HOMES AND MULTIPLE
OUTBUILDINGS WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED. BOTH HOMES WERE BRICK
STRUCTURES WITH FOUNDATION BOLTING OR STRAPPING. THE EF4 LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUED ACROSS ROUTE 25/DIXIE HIGHWAY...AND ENDED NEAR THE BAGBY
ROAD AREA. AT LEAST 2 VEHICLES WERE CARRIED...WITH ONE CARRIED OVER
1800 FEET. TREES WERE STRIPPED OF NEARLY ALL BRANCHES...WITH MUCH OF
THE BARK ALSO STRIPPED.

AS THE STORM HEADED FURTHER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...HIGH END EF3
DAMAGE CONTINUED THROUGH OTHER PROPERTIES ALONG BAGBY ROAD...TO
CARLISLE...PARKER GROVE AND PAXTON ROADS. NUMEROUS DOUBLE AND SINGLE
WIDE HOMES WERE DESTROYED....WITH BOTH BRICK AND SIDING STRUCTURES
LEFT WITH COLLAPSED EXERIOR WALLS AND EITHER ALL OR A LARGE
PERCENTAGE OF ROOF REMOVAL.

THE WIDTH OF TORNADO DAMAGE WAS ROUGHLY ONE HALF MILE.

THE STORM CONTINUED THE EAST NORTHEAST PATH INTO SOUTHEAST KENTON
COUNTY...TO THE LICKING RIVER NEAR MORNING VIEW. DAMAGE IN THE
MORNING VIEW AREA WAS CONSISTENT WITH EF1 TO EF2 DAMAGE TO THE
CAMPBELL COUNTY LINE.

IN ADDITION TO THE PATH OF THE TORNADO ITSELF...THERE WAS A WIDE
AREA OF STRAIGHT LINE /NON-TORNADIC/ WINDS ESTIMATED IN EXCESS OF
100 MPH ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TORNADO PATH. THIS DAMAGE
RESULTED IN NUMEROUS BARNS AND OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED...WITH
HUNDREDS OF TREES SNAPPED OR PUSHED OVER...AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD
ROOF DAMAGE.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE DAMAGE FROM THE TORNADO ITSELF AND THE
REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT DAMAGE....TOTAL DAMAGE SWATH REACHED AS MUCH AS
A MILE WIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO
THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.
EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.
EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.
EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.
EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.
EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.

$$

10
Quoting Skyepony:

"The dust blowing from Tularosa Basin was so dense, we could observe the sun with the naked eye--and there was sunspot AR1429. Wow!" says Tremblay.


Wow. That is brilliant.
The GFS has shown some consistency on its last few runs indicating winter may not yet be over for the eastern US... CPC has temps way above average for the next 2 weeks, but 12z GFS shows cold returning by 300 hours and 18z GFS shows a similar scenario and even has a nor'easter at the end of its run... Just something to keep an eye on though, as winter very well may be over.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The GFS has shown some consistency on its last few runs indicating winter may not yet be over for the eastern US... CPC has temps way above average for the next 2 weeks, but 12z GFS shows cold returning by 300 hours and 18z GFS shows a similar scenario and even has a nor'easter at the end of its run... Just something to keep an eye on though, as winter very well may be over.


I am not sure if it applies solely to tropical convective feedback issues, but the GFS is well-known to overdo the strength and amplitude of large scale troughing. And it has been horrendously wrong on more than one occasion regarding cold air intrusion this winter.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The GFS has shown some consistency on its last few runs indicating winter may not yet be over for the eastern US... CPC has temps way above average for the next 2 weeks, but 12z GFS shows cold returning by 300 hours and 18z GFS shows a similar scenario and even has a nor'easter at the end of its run... Just something to keep an eye on though, as winter very well may be over.
no expect a kick in the arse something got a give sooner or later what ever it is or maybe
Region 1432 Flaring again



Quoting KoritheMan:


I am not sure if it applies solely to tropical convective feedback issues, but the GFS is well-known to overdo the strength and amplitude of large scale troughing.

The GFS is usually good at predicting Severe and Winter weather, except for the long range.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS is usually good at predicting Severe and Winter weather, except for the long range.


The question then becomes, why use long range?

P.S. Not really directed at you, but those who do it for any reason other than boredom or... yeah, boredom.
Ok so, earlier I was outraged when I saw this:



as a 65kts cyclone.


It got upgraded to 75kts (according to NRL)...

This was it when it was upgraded to 65kts:



Clearly weakened!
Quoting yqt1001:
Ok so, earlier I was outraged when I saw this:



as a 65kts cyclone.


It got upgraded to 75kts (according to NRL)...

Lol... It looks the same as when it was 35 knots: A big blob of convection
Quoting KoritheMan:


The question then becomes, why use long range?

P.S. Not really directed at you, but those who do it for any reason other than boredom or... yeah, boredom.
120 hrs out is far enough after that its more or less a shot in the dark anyway
Quoting yqt1001:
Ok so, earlier I was outraged when I saw this:



as a 65kts cyclone.


It got upgraded to 75kts (according to NRL)...

This was it when it was upgraded to 65kts:



Clearly weakened!


Notice the upper-level outflow is better-defined in the first image than in the second. That indicates that vertical shear has lessened, which could mean that the low-level center is more or less under (albeit perhaps not fully) the convective cloud shield, the satellite signature notwithstanding.
Wow. Did New Smyrna Beach get smacked from the east at about 5 or 6 tonight? I got home at 7 and there was a total power blackout on the south beach and my window sills on the east side were full of water!
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
News from Kauai about the flooding there.

Big puddle in paradise!


The price you pay for living in paradise?

I couldn't resist. I know I'm a smartass.
For anyone that hasn't seen or heard of this yet, you really should watch this.

#608

58 plus million have viewed it in 4 days and Growing.

This new Verbal conscience that has been raised has the power for much good.

We must use it wisely.
You're cool KoritheMan. It looks like Hawaii set a new state record for biggest hail. The old record was 1" diameter hail but there are photos showing hail 3" plus. Crazy for the deep tropics.
Kony is psychopathic as they come. It's a good thing he's never come to power. He would be like Pol Pot or worse.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
For anyone that hasn't seen or heard of this yet, you really should watch this.


Yeah, it's really sad and he needs to be stopped.

Quoting KoritheMan:


The question then becomes, why use long range?

P.S. Not really directed at you, but those who do it for any reason other than boredom or... yeah, boredom.

Well, because you can look for consistencies within the model. If the GFS shows a system in the long-range, and continues to show it through about 228-240 hours, it'll probably keep it all the way up to short range.

The system that shows a major outbreak was originally depicted at 348 hours, now it is all the way down to 216 hours.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
You're cool KoritheMan.
Aw shucks. Don't have to rub it in. ;)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, it's really sad and he needs to be stopped.


Well, because you can look for consistencies within the model. If the GFS shows a system in the long-range, and continues to show it through about 228-240 hours, it'll probably keep it all the way up to short range.

The system that shows a major outbreak was originally depicted at 348 hours, now it is all the way down to 216 hours.





Quoting Chicklit:
Wow. Did New Smyrna Beach get smacked from the east at about 5 or 6 tonight? I got home at 7 and there was a total power blackout on the south beach and my window sills on the east side were full of water!


I took a peek at 40 frames of radar and there were big storms but moving from west to east.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Well, because you can look for consistencies within the model. If the GFS shows a system in the long-range, and continues to show it through about 228-240 hours, it'll probably keep it all the way up to short range.

The system that shows a major outbreak was originally depicted at 348 hours, now it is all the way down to 216 hours.
Fair enough. I guess I'm just not as comfortable as you and Levi are with that. I'm a short-range weather forecaster, and I think it tends to be much more pragmatic in the long run. I consider anything beyond seven days a crapshoot anyway, as though we may be able to pinpoint the large scale pattern across a given area subsequent to that point (even then it's not always the case), precise timing, amplification, and certain mesoscale details remain inherently muddled.

We've come a long way, but we need to come a lot further before we can confidently assess the weather beyond an arbitrary short-range point.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Fair enough. I guess I'm just not as comfortable as you and Levi are with that. I'm a short-range weather forecaster, and I think it tends to be much more pragmatic in the long run.

And there is nothing wrong with that. :)

One thing I do believe forecasting long-range does is help raise awareness to the public. For instance, Reed made a post earlier over the system I've talking about for several days now...

"Long-range models hinting at a massive storm system right around St Patrick's Day.. Which coincidentally I turn 32 on march 17. We'll keep an eye on it. A lot can change"

...and it gets people aware of the situation well before the threat occurs. Of course, if you happen to be wrong, people bite your head off. Lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

And there is nothing wrong with that. :)

One thing I do believe forecasting long-range does is help raise awareness to the public. For instance, Reed made a post earlier over the system I've talking about for several days now...

"Long-range models hinting at a massive storm system right around St Patrick's Day.. Which coincidentally I turn 32 on march 17. We'll keep an eye on it. A lot can change"

...and it gets people aware of the situation well before the threat occurs. Of course, if you happen to be wrong, people bite your head off. Lol.


That's true even with short-range forecasting, though. You can't win for losing with people. ;)
Re: Post #608
I'm sorry, but I have trouble with 27 minutes when it's 8:55 p.m. and I haven't had my supper yet...though it is in the toaster oven and I will finally have it shortly.
27 minutes is just too much to ask right now.
Quoting Chicklit:
Re: Post #608
I'm sorry, but I have trouble with 27 minutes when it's 8:55 p.m. and I haven't had my supper yet...though it is in the toaster oven and I will finally have it shortly.
27 minutes is just too much to ask right now.

I'll summarize the video for you.

There is a guy in Africa named Joseph Kony. For the past 30 years, he has been kidnapping kids from their parents and making them part of his army. He forces them to kill their parents and others. The people in the video are trying to raise awareness by making websites, facebook accounts, putting posters, etc, etc.

It's really sad if you think about it. He's supposedly kidnapped 30,000 kids.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'll summarize the video for you.

There is a guy in Africa named Joseph Kony. For the past 30 years, he has been kidnapping kids from their parents and making them part of his army. He forces them to kill their parents and others.



As horrible as that is (I haven't watched it either), did we really need to be made aware of something we already knew? It's not a secret that Africa is a relatively poor nation, which obviously extends to living conditions and government control as well.
Not exactly sure how I feel about this...

DISCUSSION...
ISENTROPIC LIFT EVENT WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.
WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER AZ/NM WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. DEEP MOISTURE IS FLOWING
NORTHWARD OVER THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS PROVIDING
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND ANY STORMS WILL BE BELOW SEVERE STRENGTH. THERE WILL BE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND HALF AN INCH OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS TO NEAR 2.5 INCHES ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER. AT THIS TIME
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING SEEMS UNLIKELY. BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON THIS.
TEMPS WILL BE FLAT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS AROUND NORMAL
AND HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL. THEN TEMPS WILL CLIMB WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARD THE END
OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE SHOWING A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THE ONE WE
HAVE NOW. COULD BE ANOTHER COLD...RAINY FEW DAYS.


Just to illustrate this, look how similar the ECMWF is at 48 and 240 hours, especially at 500 mb:



12Z @ 48 hrs.



12Z @ 240 hrs.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'll summarize the video for you.

There is a guy in Africa named Joseph Kony. For the past 30 years, he has been kidnapping kids from their parents and making them part of his army. He forces them to kill their parents and others. The people in the video are trying to raise awareness by making websites, facebook accounts, putting posters, etc, etc.

It's really sad if you think about it. He's supposedly kidnapped 30,000 kids.


then he needs assassination.

Anybody that is un-armed and tries to kidnap me might get a 4" steel blade shoved into their chest(sorry had to say it) :D
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'll summarize the video for you.

There is a guy in Africa named Joseph Kony. For the past 30 years, he has been kidnapping kids from their parents and making them part of his army. He forces them to kill their parents and others. The people in the video are trying to raise awareness by making websites, facebook accounts, putting posters, etc, etc.

It's really sad if you think about it. He's supposedly kidnapped 30,000 kids.

You are a good boy TAX13.
I heard about that on NPR. So thank-you for the summary. By the way, that bad guy is no longer in Uganda. It is a fundraiser for the children's advocacy group which does very good work, but also is a little misleading in its presentation according to the analyists.
thanks again and I finally have something to eat!
you will understand this takes a little personal effort once you are old enough to be paying for the sins of your youth: i.e., eating foods containing too much fat and cholesterol. haha
Quoting Chicklit:


thanks again and I finally have something to eat!
If you don't mind saying, what?
Quoting Chicklit:
Re: Post #608
I'm sorry, but I have trouble with 27 minutes when it's 8:55 p.m. and I haven't had my supper yet...though it is in the toaster oven and I will finally have it shortly.
27 minutes is just too much to ask right now.


Well, this Texas Deluge was a bit oversold. The 7.3" we were excited about is looking more like 2" over four days, which is wonderful, but myself I was looking forward to a good Texas frog-drowner.

I am thankful for every drop we get.
Quoting KoritheMan:


As horrible as that is (I haven't watched it either), did we really need to be made aware of something we already knew? It's not a secret that Africa is a relatively poor nation, which obviously extends to living conditions and government control as well.


So we do nothing about it? What are we going to do? Well, all you should do is watch and share! Raise the awareness of this person so that action can be taken. Share the video and do whatever else you can do to get this out there!

Only we can change the world!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


So we do nothing about it? What are we going to do? Well, all you should do is watch and share! Raise the awareness of this person so that action can be taken. Share the video and do whatever else you can do to get this out there!

Only we can change the world!


You completely misunderstood what I said. All I'm saying is that it's pitiful we needed a reminder. This kind of stuff is constantly going on behind the scenes, but due to how little it effects us*, the media chooses not to cover it, instead favoring other ridiculously mundane things.

One thing I learned a long time ago is that if you fancy something up to look emotional, then it will be emotional. Humankind is just hardwired in that way.

* Specifically, our economy or our morale. Not us as individuals.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


So we do nothing about it? What are we going to do? Well, all you should do is watch and share! Raise the awareness of this person so that action can be taken. Share the video and do whatever else you can do to get this out there!

Only we can change the world!


We have 100 advisers there to help try to catch him. This causes a hullabaloo when Rush Limbaugh waded into the controversy last October.
Quoting KoritheMan:
If you don't mind saying, what?

okay, organic, locally grown greens (romaine and arugula), fresh sliced radishes, canned organic chick peas, left over chicken breast (that's what was heated because I wanted to make sure the stuff closer to the bone was cooked enough!), thinly sliced vidalia onion and sliced avacado topped with homemade vinagrette.

Eating spicy chicken wings and drinking beer is no longer an option! enjoy it while you can. oh yeah, a pepperoni or sausage and mushroom pizza would be nice... Or how about grilled steak with a big fat baked potato smothered in butter and sour cream?! rofl.
These are the privileges of youth so enjoy it while you can. Preferably with someone else!

Quoting Chicklit:

These are the privileges of youth so enjoy it while you can.
I turn 21 in April, so I am still very much youthful. That being said, I maintain a fairly rigorous diet (though I slip up sometimes). I refuse to drink soft drinks, alcohol, and refuse to eat anything excessively fattening.
Quoting redwagon:


Well, this Texas Deluge was a bit oversold. The 7.3" we were excited about is looking more like 2" over four days, which is wonderful, but myself I was looking forward to a good Texas frog-drowner.

I am thankful for every drop we get.

Aw, I'm sorry.
The way the SST's in the Gulf are setting up for hurricane season you may get more than you want, but time will tell.
Quoting Patrap:
#608

58 plus million have viewed it in 4 days and Growing.

This new Verbal conscience that has been raised has the power for much good.

We must use it wisely.


with great power
comes
great responsibility
Quoting KoritheMan:

I turn 21 in April, so I am still very much youthful. That being said, I maintain a fairly rigorous diet (though I slip up sometimes). I refuse to drink soft drinks, alcohol, and refuse to eat anything excessively fattening.

Maybe you'll live to be a hundred, Kori!
I hope you will put your life to good use.
I don't drink soft drinks and drink alcohol very little. Fattening food ummmmm....yeah sometimes.

Quoting Chicklit:

Maybe you'll live to be a hundred, Kori!
I hope you will put your life to good use.
It's just, I see my dad and step mother eat McDonalds on a weekly (sometimes more) basis. That's not counting all the junk food they consume everyday, such as Doritos, hot dogs, and microwaveable stuff.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I don't drink soft drinks and drink alcohol very little. Fattening food ummmmm....yeah sometimes.
You must have a high metabolism, because you certainly don't look fat.
In other news an avalanche killed at least 50 people in the Afghanistan village of Sherin Nazim.


Article

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


with great power
comes
great responsibility


With the great power we have we have the responsibility to use it for good.
Quoting KoritheMan:

You must have a high metabolism, because you certainly don't look fat.


Not all the time! That makes the difference. Once a week or so.

5'9" 170
Afghanistan has lots of avalanches. A very bad one from 2 years ago.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I turn 21 in April, so I am still very much youthful. That being said, I maintain a fairly rigorous diet (though I slip up sometimes). I refuse to drink soft drinks, alcohol, and refuse to eat anything excessively fattening.

That's ridiculous, I could not live without soft drinks.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's ridiculous, I could not live without soft drinks.
If you read up on them as much as I have, you would have an aversion for them as well.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Afghanistan has lots of avalanches. A very bad one from 2 years ago.


Geez.
Quoting KoritheMan:

If you read up on them as much as I have, you would have an aversion for them as well.

No, I could not live without Mountain Dew. Period. :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's ridiculous, I could not live without soft drinks.


That high-fructose corn syrup will get you!
Quoting KoritheMan:

If you read up on them as much as I have, you would have an aversion for them as well.


Cody, if water isn't your thing, I strongly recommend trying vitamin water. They're 20 ounce bottles generally found at the front of most retailers/convenience stores. Yeah, the non-zero ones obviously house copious amounts of sugar (32 grams per 20 ounce bottle, depending on the flavor), but they also contain many beneficial nutrients. Much better than soft drinks.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


That high-fructose corn syrup will get you!

Hm?


EVENT DETECTED
Quoting KoritheMan:


Cody, if water isn't your thing, I strongly recommend trying vitamin water. They're 20 ounce bottles generally found at the front of most retailers/convenience stores. Yeah, the non-zero ones obviously house copious amounts of sugar (32 grams per 20 ounce bottle, depending on the flavor), but they also contain many beneficial nutrients. Much better than soft drinks.

But why do I need to drink water at all? I'm fit and skinny. :P
Its Sunspot 1429 again


Quoting KoritheMan:
Fair enough. I guess I'm just not as comfortable as you and Levi are with that. I'm a short-range weather forecaster, and I think it tends to be much more pragmatic in the long run. I consider anything beyond seven days a crapshoot anyway, as though we may be able to pinpoint the large scale pattern across a given area subsequent to that point (even then it's not always the case), precise timing, amplification, and certain mesoscale details remain inherently muddled.

We've come a long way, but we need to come a lot further before we can confidently assess the weather beyond an arbitrary short-range point.
My physics teacher always stressed that very same point....sort of the butterfly effect...
Another video just into our newsroom - West Liberty tornado on a resident's surveillance camera

Link
Day 1 of the TEXAS DELUGE. And we received 3 inches of rain... Suppose to be more to come tomorrow, so I think it'll total up at around 5 to 6 inches... This amount is good enough for me, though the hillcountry needs it more, and they sure are getting it. Our lake levels might actually go up on the Colorado R.
Looks like the predicted surface low is starting to develop in the Gulf.

Now fading..but it still shows the activity remains High in that cluster.

Quoting Patrap:
Its Sunspot 1429 again

seems to be pointed away but its all about how they fire off
That was an excellent vid Chucktown. Thanks for posting.

Have a good day all. Over and out.
Magnitude 5.3 - TARAPACA, CHILE
2012 March 10 02:26:57 UTC
5.3
Date-Time
Saturday, March 10, 2012 at 02:26:57 UTC
Friday, March 09, 2012 at 11:26:57 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
19.692°S, 69.127°W
Depth
101.7 km (63.2 miles)


earlier today..note the depth here as well

Magnitude
3.4
Date-Time
Friday, March 09, 2012 at 14:29:09 UTC
Friday, March 09, 2012 at 05:29:09 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
60.092°N, 152.789°W
Depth
109.9 km (68.3 miles)
Region
SOUTHERN ALASKA
Evening all,

Ummmm....does anyone notice the interesting feature in the ATLANTIC at 65W...25N? Although there is high shear between 850-200 mb...I am seeing a low-level circulation spinning up and deep convection trying to get near the center....
I gots a new blog on Koji n such, if u wanna check it out :D

Link
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Evening all,

Ummmm....does anyone notice the interesting feature in the ATLANTIC at 65W...25N? Although there is high shear between 850-200 mb...I am seeing a low-level circulation spinning up and deep convection trying to get near the center....

It's in 40-60 knots of wind shear and SSTs of 24-25 °C. Do not even get the idea. :P
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

Man...I am defintely seeing something there...centered at 25N 62.5W...
This could be interesting to watch as it progresses northwards.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's in 40-60 knots of wind shear and SSTs of 24-25 °C. Do not even get the idea. :P


Is that 40 to 60 kts of shear doing an 850-200 mb analysis? I agree it looks sheared...but not by 40 to 60 kts. Its as if these off-season systems have shallower vertical circulations such that the shear rule should be shallower than 850-200 mb.....
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Is that 40 to 60 kts of shear doing an 850-200 mb analysis? I agree it looks sheared...but not by 40 to 60 kts. Its as if these off-season systems have shallower vertical circulations such that the shear rule should be shallower than 850-200 mb.....

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's in 40-60 knots of wind shear and SSTs of 24-25 °C. Do not even get the idea. :P


PINHOLE EYE!!! LOL!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



That CIMSS map I believe uses the 850 mb and 200 mb layer to do the shear analysis. But there are warm core cyclones that can have their entire vertical circulation shallower than usual (especially off-season systems). I think the shear is lower if an 850 to 500 mb analysis is done ? (that's probably more appropriate for this system?)
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Evening all,

Ummmm....does anyone notice the interesting feature in the ATLANTIC at 65W...25N? Although there is high shear between 850-200 mb...I am seeing a low-level circulation spinning up and deep convection trying to get near the center....


This is what the GFS was showing a week and a half ago...
672. Tygor
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Day 1 of the TEXAS DELUGE. And we received 3 inches of rain... Suppose to be more to come tomorrow, so I think it'll total up at around 5 to 6 inches... This amount is good enough for me, though the hillcountry needs it more, and they sure are getting it. Our lake levels might actually go up on the Colorado R.


Send some to San Antonio, we have less than 0.10" so far
Quoting KoritheMan:


As horrible as that is (I haven't watched it either), did we really need to be made aware of something we already knew? It's not a secret that Africa is a relatively poor nation, which obviously extends to living conditions and government control as well.
Africa a nation? When did this happen? Yeh for the Pan-Africans, Kadafi would be proud! I think?!

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


 Its as if these off-season systems have shallower vertical circulations such that the shear rule should be shallower than 850-200 mb.....
Actually, that is precisely it. Truly tropical convection, the kind where we frequently see -80C cloud top temperatures, requires very warm waters to process. Such waters are not generally present over such high latitudes. This is why storms like Epsilon and Zeta can refuse to weaken, and even strengthen, in the face of strong vertical shear.

So yes Cody, it can happen.

Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Africa a nation? When did this happen? Yeh for the Pan-Africans, Kadafi would be proud! I think?!
A misnomer, but you get my point I'm sure. :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'll summarize the video for you.

There is a guy in Africa named Joseph Kony. For the past 30 years, he has been kidnapping kids from their parents and making them part of his army. He forces them to kill their parents and others. The people in the video are trying to raise awareness by making websites, facebook accounts, putting posters, etc, etc.

It's really sad if you think about it. He's supposedly kidnapped 30,000 kids.
Found this interesting letter on it.

Dear Jason Russell,
After being bombarded with your KONY 2012 crusade, I have no choice but to respond to your highly inaccurate, offensive, and harmful propaganda. I realized I had to respond in hopes of stopping you before you cause more violence and deaths to the Acholi people (Northern Ugandans), the very people you are claiming to protect. Firstly, I would like to question your timing of this KONY 2012 crusade in Uganda when most of the violence from Joseph Kony and the LRA (The Lord’s Resistance Army) has subsided in Uganda in the past 5 years. The LRA has moved onto neighboring countries like the DRC and Sudan. Why are you not urging action in the countries he is currently in? Why are you worried about Kony all of a sudden when Ugandans are not at this present moment?
This grossly illogical timing and statements on your website such as “Click here to buy your KONY 2012 products” makes me believe that the timing has more to do with your commercial interests than humanitarian interests. With the upcoming U.S. presidential elections and the waning interest in Invisible Children, it seems to be perfect timing to start a crusade. I also must add at this point how much it personally disgusts me the way in which you have commercialized a conflict in which thousands of people have died.
Secondly, I would like to address the highly inaccurate content of your video. Your video did not leave the viewer any more knowledgeable about the conflict in Uganda, but only emotionally assaulted. I could not help but notice how conveniently one-sided the “explanation” in your video was. There was absolutely no mention of the role of the Ugandan government and military in the conflict. Let alone the role of the U.S. government and military. The only information given is “KONY MUST BE STOPPED.”
I would like to inform you that stopping Kony would not end the conflict. (It is correctly pronounced “Kohn” by the way). This conflict is deeply embedded in Uganda’s history that neither starts nor ends with Kony. Therefore, your solution to the problem is flawed. There is no way to know the solution, without full knowledge of the problem itself. We must act on knowledge, not emotions.
Joseph Kony formed the LRA in retaliation to the brutality of President Museveni (from the south) committing mass atrocities on the Acholi people (from the north) when President Museveni came to power in 1986. This follows a long history of Ugandan politics that can be traced back to pre-colonial times. The conflict must be contextualized within this history. (If you want to have this proper knowledge, I suggest you start by working with scholars, not celebrities). President Museveni is still in power and in his reign of 26 years he has arguably killed as many, if not more Acholi people, than Joseph Kony. Why is President Museveni not demonized, let alone mentioned? I would like to give you more credit than just ignorance. I have three guesses. One is that Invisible Children has close ties with the Ugandan government and military, which it has been accused of many times. Second, is that you are willing to fight Kony, but not the U.S. Government, which openly supports President Museveni. Third, is that Invisible Children feels the need to reduce the conflict to better commercialize it.
This brings me to my third issue, the highly offensive nature of your video. Firstly, it is offensive to your viewer. The scene with your “explanation” of the conflict to your toddler son suggests that the viewers have the mental capacity of a toddler and can only handle information given in such a reductionist manner. I would like to think American teenagers and young adults (which is clearly your target audience) are smarter than your toddler son. I would hope that we are able to realize that it is not a “Star Wars” game with aliens and robots in some far off galaxy as your son suggests, but a real world conflict with real world people in Uganda. This is a real life conflict with real life consequences.
Secondly, and more importantly, it is offensive to Ugandans. The very name “Invisible Children” is offensive. You claim you make the invisible, visible. The statements, “We have seen these kids.” and “No one knew about these kids.” are part of your slogan. You seem to be strongly hinting that you somehow have validated and found these kids and their struggles.
Whether you see them or not, they were always there. Your having seen the kids does not validate their existence in any shape or form or bring it any more significance. You say “no one” knew about the kids. What about the kids themselves? What about the families of the kids who were killed and abducted? Are they “no one?” Are they not human?
These children are not invisible, you are making them invisible by silencing, dehumanizing, marketing, and invalidating them.
Last year I went to Gulu, Uganda, where Invisible Children is based, and interviewed over 50 locals. Every single person questioned Invisible Children’s legitimacy and intention. Every single person. If anything, it seemed the people saw Invisible Children as a bigger threat than Joseph Kony at the time. Why is it the very people you are trying to “help” feel more offense than relief with your aid?
“They come here to make money and use us.”
“It makes us feel terrible to be presented as being so stupid and helpless.”
These are direct quotes. This was the sentiment of the majority of the people that I interviewed in varying degrees. I definitely didn’t see or hear these voices or opinions in your video. If you are to be “saving” the Acholi people, the very least you can be doing is holding yourself accountable to them and actually listening to what they have to say.
This offensive, inaccurate misconstruction of Ugandans and its conflict makes me wonder what and whom this is really about. It seems that you feel very good about yourself being a savior, a Luke Skywalker of sorts, and same with the girl in your video who passionately states, “This is what defines us”. Therefore, I can’t help but wonder if Invisible Children is more about defining the American do-gooders (and making them feel good), rather than the Ugandans; profiteering the American military and corporations (which Invisible Children is officially and legally) than the conflict.
Lastly, I would like to address the harmful nature of your propaganda. I believe your actions will actually bring back the fighting in Northern Uganda. You are not asking for peace, but violence. The fighting has stopped in the past 5 years and the Acholi are finally enjoying some peace. You will be inviting the LRA and the fighting back into Uganda and disturbing this peace. The last time Invisible Children got politically involved and began lobbying it actually caused more violence and deaths. I beg you not to do it again.
If you open your eyes and see the actions of the Ugandan government and the U.S. government, you will see why. Why is it that suddenly in October of 2011 when there has been relative peace in Uganda for 4 years, President Obama decided to send troops into Uganda? Why is it that the U.S. military is so involved with AFRICOM, which has been pervading African countries, including Uganda? Why is it that U.S. has been traced to creating the very weapons that has been used in the violence? The U.S. is entering Uganda and other countries in Africa not to stop violence, but to create a new battlefield.
In your video you urge that the first course of action is that the Ugandan military needs American military and weapons. You are giving weapons to the very people who were killing the Acholi people in the first place. You are helping to open the grounds for America to make Uganda into a battlefield in which it can profit and gain power. Please recognize this is all part of a bigger military movement, not a humanitarian movement. This will cause deaths, not save lives. This will be doing more harm, than good.
You end your video with saying, “I will stop at nothing”. If nothing else, will you not stop for the lives of the Acholi people? Haven’t enough Acholi people suffered in the violence between the LRA and the Ugandan government? Our alliance should not be with the U.S. government or the Ugandan military or the LRA, but the Acholi people. There is a Ugandan saying that goes, “The grass will always suffer when two elephants fight.” Isn’t it time we let the grass grow?
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Amber Ha
Quoting WxGeekVA:


This is what the GFS was showing a week and a half ago...


Did the GFS hint at tropical development with this system as well?

Even if this doesn't become an Invest....its still interesting to see ANYTHING like this in March! I wonder if this past warm winter will lead to a strong tornado and hurricane season. I mean...aren't the temps in the Gulf and Atlantic warmer than usual in part b/c of this past warm winter?
So much conflict, so lil time.

Man has learned nothing in 50,000 generations.


Save for American Idol and how to spend Half the planets Riches and intellect to manifest War and Weapons.


What a way to run a Planet.

pppfth..



Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 092347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI MAR 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE AFRICAN COAST AT 09N13W
TO 02N19W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ
WHICH IN TURN CONTINUES SW CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 23W TO
03S30W...THEN THE ITCZ TURNS W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA AT
03S42W. LOCALLY BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH A FEW
TSTMS...ARE OBSERVED SE OF THE ITCZ AND NW OF A LINE FROM 01N11W
TO 08S35W. CONVECTION IS ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS IT
CONTINUES E ALONG 08N ACROSS AFRICA BETWEEN 10W AND 06E.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR 10N100W RIDGES NE
ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS
THE NW BAHAMAS. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE NW
GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING AT
28N94W...WITH THE COLD FRONT THEN CONTINUING S ALONG 96W TURNING
W AND INLAND MEXICO AT 22N97W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...
WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN...ARE OBSERVED TO THE N OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...WITH PATCHY FOG REPORTED THROUGHOUT THE TEXAS
COASTAL BEND AREA OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VISIBILITY BELOW 3 SM.
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 TO 25 KT N OF THE FRONT.
LIGHTNING DATA IS DETECTING TSTMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST. DENSE UPPER MOISTURE IS INDICATED N OF
27N WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
SMALL AREAS OF CUMULUS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SOON STALL
AND DRIFT NW WHILE DISSIPATING ON THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH HAS ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM
HISPANIOLA TO PANAMA...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
HOWEVER...DENSE UPPER MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION OVER
S AMERICA IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN...TO THE SE OF
OF A LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE NW VENEZUELA. LOCALLY
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH BRIEF SHOWERS...ARE RACING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IN EASTERLY 15 TO 20 KT TRADES...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES OBSERVED WITHIN 120
NM OF THE NW COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NE TO E
AT 25 TO 30 KT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTATED SW TO NE FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS
TO BEYOND BERMUDA. DENSE UPPER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED W OF THIS
RIDGE AXIS...AND IS PROGRESSING E WITH TIME. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS
CENTERED NEAR 33N62W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW THROUGH
ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE AT 27N66W...WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING SW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR
VERY DRY E OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE...AND THIS
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH. AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N60W
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH LOCALLY BROKEN TRADE WIND CUMULUS MOVING
FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE RIDGE.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W...IN THE AREA FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W
AND 63W WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH INDUCED FROM 23N63W TO 29N62W.
LIGHTNING DATA DETECTS TSTMS FIRING OFF WITHIN 150 NM E OF THIS
LOW LEVEL TROUGH. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N27N
BUT IMMEDIATELY WEAKENS TO A SHEAR AXIS AS IT CONTINUES W
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING ALONG 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N30W TO A
BASE AT 22N29W WHILE A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER AFRICA TO THE
N OF 16N. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THESE TROUGHS
AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER MOISTURE WHICH IS NOW MOVING OVER
THE W AFRICAN COAST TO THE N OF 10N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NELSON
Africa is not a nation.
It is a continent.
Many nations.
AAArghh!

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Did the GFS hint at tropical development with this system as well?

Even if this doesn't become an Invest....its still interesting to see ANYTHING like this in March! I wonder if this past warm winter will lead to a strong tornado and hurricane season. I mean...aren't the temps in the Gulf and Atlantic warmer than usual in part b/c of this past warm winter?
Warm waters alone mean nothing.
i just got a request from one of my adult friends at church, and she said that there was a couple who was interested in my blogs. See i email my update blogs to a list of some friends n relatives, and they get caught up to speed on the tropical weather. :D

once, i accidently sent an update to the NHC public affairs LOL. i didnt get a repy from them, so i was relived!

Quoting SPLbeater:
i just got a request from one of my adult friends at church, and she said that there was a couple who was interested in my blogs. See i email my update blogs to a list of some friends n relatives, and they get caught up to speed on the tropical weather. :D

once, i accidently sent an update to the NHC public affairs LOL. i didnt get a repy from them, so i was relived!
Congrats!
Quoting Patrap:
So much conflict, so lil time.

Man has learned nothing in 50,000 generations.


Save for American Idol and how to spend Half the planets Riches and intellect to manifest War and Weapons.


What a way to run a Planet.

pppfth..



Well that tells you a lot about human nature does it not? War has a good side and a bad side. Without it we would not be were we are today. For some unknown reason war seems to spark innovation.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Warm waters alone mean nothing.


Yeah...I know low/shear...etc...matters. But in addition to the warm waters...aren't the atmospheric oscillation phases in general repeating like last year (La Nina...Arctic Oscillation...etc). I also know thw warm waters off the Gulf helped juice up the atmosphere ahead of cold fronts during tornado season 2011, right?
Killing over 100 million Humans in the last Century, well, yeah, Look where we are today.

War is Mans Highest Art.


But this connectivity here is erasing all the old paradigms fast and with a ever growing intellect and language.

He possess's the Tools to kill off the entire Worlds Population with a Keystroke,in a matter of Hours..yet a Billion go Hungry every day.

Show me the advance?

Im a good listener.










Quoting KoritheMan:

Congrats!


congrats that some church members are inerested in my posts, OR that the NHC didnt jump on me? lol...my heart did jump a bit when i seen that the NHC was in the 'sent' box for a past blog, hehe...
Quoting Patrap:
Killing over 100 million Humans in the last Century, well, yeah, Look where we are today.

War is Mans Highest Art.


But this connectivity here is erasing all the old paradigms fast and with a ever growing intellect and language.

He possess's the Tools to kill off the entire Worlds Population with a Keystroke,in a matter of Hours..yet a Billion go Hungry every day.

Show me the advance?

Im a good listener.










Nuclear tech would massively behind. Communication tech would also. Good chance the space race would have never happened and you know what that means. No satellites. Those are just examples off the top of my head. If you want I can research it. World huger would exist with or without war. Only thing that would fix that is if the common trait of greed was to be destroyed from our minds.
Human thought is the root source of all conflict.


I've lived all that,...and this isnt the place for it.

Feel free to use my entry though, just click my handle.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah...I know low/shear...etc...matters. But in addition to the warm waters...aren't the atmospheric oscillation phases in general repeating like last year (La Nina...Arctic Oscillation...etc). I also know thw warm waters off the Gulf helped juice up the atmosphere ahead of cold fronts during tornado season 2011, right?


No. La Nina is dying (in fact, equatorial anomalies have risen to above normal levels all the way to 115W). With the recent burst of westerly winds associated with an eastward-propagating Kelvin wave, we are beginning to see anomalous warming across the various Nino regions (though Nino 3.4, out near 140W, is the one that most strongly affects our basin, and no appreciable warming has been observed to occur there thus far). Such a tongue of warm water this time of year usually heralds an emerging El Nino.

However, it's important to note that with a cold PDO (defined by the very cold waters off the western United States), significant equatorial warming, especially in the Nino 3.4 region, is somewhat hard to come by. It is for this reason that I do not see a rapid transition to El Nino like some have been saying.

I do think a weak El Nino will emerge during the fall or winter though, but for the most important months, we'll be decidedly neutral, albeit warm.
Quoting SPLbeater:


congrats that some church members are inerested in my posts, OR that the NHC didnt jump on me? lol...my heart did jump a bit when i seen that the NHC was in the 'sent' box for a past blog, hehe...


The former. That's quite an achievement.
Magnitude 4.6 - SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS
2012 March 10 03:14:14 UTC


Versión en Español
Details
Maps
Scientific & Technical
Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude
4.6
Date-Time
Saturday, March 10, 2012 at 03:14:14 UTC
Saturday, March 10, 2012 at 03:14:14 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
32.108°S, 179.749°E
Depth
508.6 km (316.0 miles)
Region
SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS
Distances
148 km (91 miles) WSW of L'Esperance Rock, Kermadec Islands
387 km (240 miles) SW of Raoul Island, Kermadec Islands
698 km (433 miles) NE of Auckland, New Zealand
1111 km (690 miles) NNE of WELLINGTON, New Zealand
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 23.6 km (14.7 miles); depth +/- 13.9 km (8.6 miles)
Parameters
NST= 38, Nph= 42, Dmin=620 km, Rmss=1.25 sec, Gp=140°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=5
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usb0008ej9
Quoting KoritheMan:


No. La Nina is dying (in fact, equatorial anomalies have risen to above normal levels all the way to 115W). With the recent burst of westerly winds associated with an eastward-propagating Kelvin wave, we are beginning to see anomalous warming across the various Nino regions (though Nino 3.4, out near 140W, is the one that most strongly affects our basin, and no appreciable warming has been observed to occur there thus far). Such a tongue of warm water this time of year usually heralds an emerging El Nino.

However, it's important to note that with a cold PDO (defined by the very cold waters off the western United States), significant equatorial warming, especially in the Nino 3.4 region, is somewhat hard to come by. It is for this reason that I do not see a rapid transition to El Nino like some have been saying.

I do think a weak El Nino will emerge during the fall or winter though, but for the most important months, we'll be decidedly neutral, albeit warm.


Well...its about time that La Nina reverses to El Nino...its been a while. This is some good news in that it will contribute to a dampening of hurricane season. However...what does this say about tornado season?
Btw for the people with a good sense of humor: Link

The good sense of humor is a warning btw.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Well...its about time that La Nina reverses to El Nino...its been a while. This is some good news in that it will contribute to a dampening of hurricane season. However...what does this say about tornado season?


An El Nino would probably just bring a normal severe weather season. It typically features cold winters for the southern US, and so it would contribute to strong northwesterly surface flow, promoting strong upwelling of the Gulf waters.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Btw for the people with a good sense of humor: Link

The good sense of humor is a warning btw.


LOL
Quoting KoritheMan:


The former. That's quite an achievement.


well it wasnt my doing, the lady was bragging on my posts xD....i suggested to all of em to make an account and then they could leave comments and talk with me and all of you guys here, but it aint materialized and i aint sure it will...oh well lol.
Quoting KoritheMan:


An El Nino would probably just bring a normal severe weather season. It typically features cold winters for the southern US, and so it would contribute to strong northwesterly surface flow, promoting strong upwelling of the Gulf waters.


LOL...well what honestly got me to blog tonight is the Atlantic feature near 62.5W 25N...do u think its interesting even in the slightest bit or am I the only crazy one here? LOL
Quoting KoritheMan:


An El Nino would probably just bring a normal severe weather season. It typically features cold winters for the southern US, and so it would contribute to strong northwesterly surface flow, promoting strong upwelling of the Gulf waters.


Jet stream configuration allows for cold air outbreaks of Arctic or Polar origin to plunge south and deep into the Southeast United States, including Florida.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Btw for the people with a good sense of humor: Link

The good sense of humor is a warning btw.


That. was. amazing!

Quoting KoritheMan:

Actually, that is precisely it. Truly tropical convection, the kind where we frequently see -80C cloud top temperatures, requires very warm waters to process. Such waters are not generally present over such high latitudes. This is why storms like Epsilon and Zeta can refuse to weaken, and even strengthen, in the face of strong vertical shear.

So yes Cody, it can happen.

I did not say it couldn't happen, it's just not going to in this situation.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


LOL...well what honestly got me to blog tonight is the Atlantic feature near 62.5W 25N...do u think its interesting even in the slightest bit or am I the only crazy one here? LOL


its interesting, because my wind measurements indicated it has windspeeds of 700 knots and an eye 200 meters across. thats a PINHOLE EYE! i mean just look at its central dense overcast....gee wiz. Giovanna, Katrina, they dont hold a candle to it! its simply AMAZING!!
Weekly NINO 3.4 index



Weekly SOI index

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I did not say it couldn't happen, it's just not going to in this situation.


You said it wouldn't happen because of 40-60 kt of upper-level shear, and cool waters. Both factors are sometimes mitigated in the case of subtropical cyclogenesis. When you have a system in the middle of nowhere and fully detached from the westerlies this time of year, they typically try to organize. You cannot use the same principles for tropical meteorology and turn around and convert them to subtropical entities.
Quoting hurricane23:


Jet stream configuration allows for cold air outbreaks of Arctic or Polar origin to plunge south and deep into the Southeast United States, including Florida.


Yep. El Nino alters the mean jet stream pattern so that such is possible.
El Nino baby here we come!!!
March 9, 2012, 6:26 PM JST

March 11, One Year On: Radioactive Pollen?

March is the peak of hay fever season in Japan. And this year it brings a new twist: radioactivity in pollen.

A year after meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant blew radioactive particles over much of northeastern Japan, some of that contamination is being re-dispersed by trees. The biggest culprit is thought to be sugi, or Japanese cedar, an evergreen that’s actually more closely related to the giant sequoia.

Sugi are everywhere in Japan, growing especially thickly in the hills and mountains of eastern Japan. Between February and May, the tiny cones on the ends of the sugi branches release their pollen spores in massive clouds, which can waft more than 100 miles – to the distress of the roughly 30% of Japanese who suffer from hay fever. During bad years, like 2008, there can be hundreds of spores afloat per cubic meter; one spot in heavily wooded Gunma prefecture logged a sugi pollen count that year of 2,207.

The problem this year is the radioactive cesium spewed out after the Fukushima accident, which researchers last summer found collecting inside sugi needles, though they’re still not sure how it got there. Japan’s Forestry Agency decided if it could get inside the needles, it might show up in the pollen as well, and a few months ago commissioned a study of the radioactive cesium content of cones and pollen from 182 locations throughout the country.

“There was the fear that Japan could be threatened again by cesium from the sky,” explains Takashi Yamaguchi, an official at the Forestry Agency.

The bottom line, according to the government: This year’s radioactive pollen won’t be hazardous to health. Although the survey did find some extremely high levels – especially from sugi in the town of Namie in Fukushima, inside the no-go zone – the Forestry Agency concluded that by the time the pollen got through the noses of the populace, the level of exposure would be very low.

If all the pollen floating through this year’s hay-fever season was contaminated at the peak level found, a person’s accumulated exposure from that would still only be 0.000553 millisieverts – about one-hundredth the level of a chest X-ray, the government found.

Just to be sure, a coalition of scientists called the Japan Geoscience Union is conducting its own measurements of pollen count and radiation levels, as the season progresses.

The government’s conclusion? “If you’re concerned, wear a mask,” says Mr. Yamaguchi.

Copyright 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved

http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2012/03/09/mar ch-11-one-year-on-radioactive-pollen/tab/print/


European Pressphoto Agency
A gust of wind carries plumes of pollen from cedar trees in Iwate prefecture in April 2011.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


LOL...well what honestly got me to blog tonight is the Atlantic feature near 62.5W 25N...do u think its interesting even in the slightest bit or am I the only crazy one here? LOL


From a purely satellite perspective, it sure does.
Alright guys, i best get off here and get to bed. im sure that we will be hangin out in the street again tomorrow with our hats backwards and pants saggin low(LOL just kiddin) so, i need rest.

night all!
Quoting KoritheMan:


From a purely satellite perspective, it sure does.


Well...I am thinking....

(A) The upper ridge axis ahead of the cold front emerging from the US will help amplify the associated cut-off upper trough into an upper low to further support this system

or...

(B) The cold front will absorb it before it becomes an Invest....

I am thinking scenario (B) more likely as the pre-frontal upper ridge axis in scenario (A) is not that amplified....but I wonder what the models do with it (that is if the models are even initialized with that feature)....
Quoting KoritheMan:

A misnomer, but you get my point I'm sure. :)
I had to think about this for a while but have decided not to let it slide. My first post on the topic was humorous and intended to give you an opportunity to re-think what you had posted. You are one of the better of the younger posters on here so I didn't want to "get in your face" right away.

Your point appeared to be that it is all right to be ignorant about other parts of the globe if one so choses. It is this attitude which appears to be held by much of the US population, yet coupled with the hubris to believe that in spite of our lack of knowledge we are called upon to "Police" the rest of the globe. This ignorance has cost us dearly in life and treasure and it appears we are moonwalking our way into more of the same.

Maybe I misunderstood. I hope so
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
I had to think about this for a while but have decided not to let it slide. My first post on the topic was humorous and intended to give you an opportunity to re-think what you had posted. You are one of the better of the younger posters on here so I didn't want to "get in your face" right away.

Your point appeared to be that it is all right to be ignorant about other parts of the globe if one so choses. It is this attitude which appears to be held by much of the US population, yet coupled with the hubris to believe that in spite of our lack of knowledge we are called upon to "Police" the rest of the glob. This ignorance has cost us dearly in life and treasure and it appears we are moonwalking our way into more of the same.

Maybe I misunderstood. I hope so


I wasn't saying that at all. All I'm saying is that these events are common. We need to do something about them, yes, but I think it's a damn shame that it took Kony to bring this to our attention. That's all. If you want to promote a cause, that's fine, but it's really pitiful if it takes that much for you to become cognizant of a particular situation, or even do something about it.
off topic...

I fear that another major earthquake is about to strike somewhere in the world soon.



2011 - Japan 9.0 megaquake/tsunami
2010 - Chile 8.8
2009 - Samoa 8.3
2008 - China 8.0 deadly quake
2007 - Peru 8.0

2012 - ?? coming soon
let's be real. It will happen even if we do not want
El nin o is forming not a surprise....Hurricane season will be average.
A weak tropical low has formed in the Arafura Sea well north of the Arnhem coast. The low is expected to slowly deepen as it moves west or southwest towards the Timor Sea. There is an increasing risk of a tropical cyclone developing in the Timor Sea during the week, which could affect the Kimberley coast from Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================

Sunday: Low
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic...

I fear that another major earthquake is about to strike somewhere in the world soon.



2011 - Japan 9.0 megaquake/tsunami
2010 - Chile 8.8
2009 - Samoa 8.3
2008 - China 8.0 deadly quake
2007 - Peru 8.0

2012 - ?? coming soon
let's be real. It will happen even if we do not want


....beware the ides of March.....
Quoting washingtonian115:
El nin o is forming not a surprise....Hurricane season will be average.


We are not going to get a full-fledged El Nino this summer. I'll seriously give you $20 if we do.
More than 25 years after the space shuttle Challenger exploded shortly after liftoff, an amateur video of the accident has surfaced.

The newly released video, taken by Jeffrey Ault, and licensed from Ault by the Huffington Post, offers a closer and more intimate view of the tragedy than have other video reports previously released by the news media. Ault was part of a live audience gathered to watch the Challenger take off from the Kennedy Space Center, less than 10 miles from the launch site. He shot the video on his Super 8 home video camera, and it sat for 26 years in a box in his house.





Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
12:03 PM WST March 10 2012
=========================

A low is developing off the Pilbara coast approximately 600 km north northwest of Karratha in the vicinity of 16S 114E. It is possible that it will develop into a tropical cyclone during Sunday but it is more likely to reach tropical cyclone intensity during the week. This system is not expected to cause gales in Pilbara communities during Sunday or Monday but the risk of a coastal impact increases during the week

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================

Sunday: Moderate
Monday: High
Tuesday: High
Quoting KoritheMan:


We are not going to get a full-fledged El Nino this summer. I'll seriously give you $20 if we do.
LOL.I didn't say El nino was going to form immediatly of coarse it will take time to develope.But I think that the changing over to El nino will have some affects in the Atlantic.Like the shear increasing ect..
Quoting washingtonian115:
LOL.I didn't say El nino was going to form immediatly of coarse it will take time to develope.But I think that the changing over to El nino will have some affects in the Atlantic.Like the shear increasing ect..


With a cold PDO, I doubt we'll get one until the middle of the fall. Just my two cents. The money's still up for grabs!
Major Earthquakes 8.0 and Larger Since 1900

1/10/1971 7:17:00 8.1 Papua, Indonesia
1/13/2007 4:23:21 8.1 East of the Kuril Islands
1/15/1934 8:43:00 8.1 Bihar, India
1/24/1948 17:46:00 8.2 Panay, Philippines
1/31/1906 15:36:00 8.8 Colombia-Ecuador
1/4/1903 5:07:00 8.0 Tonga
Six

2/1/1938 19:04:00 8.5 Banda Sea
2/17/1996 5:59:00 8.2 Irian Jaya region, Indonesia
2/27/2010 6:34:14 8.8 Offshore Maule, Chile
2/3/1923 16:01:00 8.5 Kamchatka
2/4/1965 5:01:00 8.7 Rat Islands, Alaska
Five

3/11/2011 5:46:23 9.0 Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan
3/2/1933 17:31:00 8.4 Sanriku, Japan
3/25/1998 3:12:00 8.1 Balleny Islands region
3/28/1964 3:36:00 9.2 Prince William Sound, Alaska
3/28/2005 16:09:00 8.6 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia
3/3/1985 22:47:00 8.0 offshore Valparaiso, Chile
3/4/1952 1:22:00 8.1 Hokkaido, Japan region
3/9/1957 14:22:00 8.6 Andreanof Islands, Alaska
Eight

4/1/1946 12:28:00 8.1 Unimak Islands, Alaska
4/1/2007 20:39:58 8.1 Solomon Islands
4/14/1924 16:20:00 8.3 Mindanao, Philippines
4/30/1919 7:17:00 8.2 Tonga region
4/30/1939 2:55:00 8.0 Solomon Islands
4/6/1943 16:07:00 8.2 off the coast of Coquimbo, Chile
Six

5/1/1915 5:00:00 8.0 Kurile Islands
5/1/1917 18:26:00 8.0 Kermadec Islands, New Zealand
5/16/1968 0:49:00 8.2 off the east coast of Honshu, Japan
5/22/1960 19:11:00 9.5 Chile
5/23/1989 10:54:00 8.1 Macquarie Island region
5/24/1940 16:33:00 8.2 near the Coast of central Peru
5/26/1914 14:22:00 8.0 West New Guinea
5/3/2006 15:26:00 8.0 Tonga
5/4/1959 7:15:00 8.2 near the east coast of Kamchatka
5/7/1986 22:47:00 8.0 Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska
Ten

6/11/1902 5:00:00 8.0 Sea of Okhotsk
6/15/1911 14:26:00 8.1 Ryukyu Islands, Japan
6/17/1928 3:19:00 8.0 Oaxaca, Mexico
6/22/1977 12:08:00 8.1 Tonga region
6/23/2001 20:33:00 8.4 near the coast of southern Peru
6/26/1917 5:49:00 8.4 Tonga
6/3/1932 10:36:00 8.1 Jalisco, Mexico
6/5/1920 4:21:00 8.0 Taiwan region
6/9/1994 0:33:00 8.2 La Paz, Bolivia
Nine

7/23/1905 2:46:00 8.4 central Mongolia
7/30/1995 5:11:00 8.0 Near Coast of Northern Chile
7/31/1970 17:08:00 8.0 Colombia
7/9/1905 9:40:00 8.4 Mongolia
Four

8/10/1931 21:18:00 8.0 northern Xinjiang, China
8/11/1903 4:32:00 8.3 southern Greece
8/11/1969 21:27:00 8.2 Kuril Islands
8/15/1918 12:18:00 8.0 Celebes Sea
8/15/1950 14:09:00 8.6 Assam-Tibet
8/15/2007 23:40:57 8.0 Near the Coast of Central Peru
8/16/1976 16:11:00 8.0 Mindanao, Philippines
8/17/1906 0:40:00 8.2 Valparaiso, Chile
8/19/1977 6:08:00 8.3 south of Sumbawa, Indonesia
8/22/1949 4:01:00 8.1 Queen Charlotte Island, B.C., Canada
8/24/1942 22:50:00 8.2 Off the coast of central Peru
8/4/1946 17:51:00 8.0 Dominican Republic
Twelve

9/12/2007 11:10:26 8.5 Southern Sumatra, Indonesia
9/19/1985 13:17:00 8.0 Michoacan, Mexico
9/20/1920 14:39:00 8.0 Loyalty Islands
9/25/2003 19:50:00 8.3 Hokkaido, Japan region
9/29/2009 17:48:10 8.1 Samoa Islands region
9/7/1918 17:16:00 8.2 Kuril Islands
Six

10/13/1963 5:17:00 8.5 Kuril Islands
10/17/1966 21:41:00 8.1 near the coast of central Peru
10/21/1907 4:23:00 8.0 Afghanistan
10/3/1974 14:21:00 8.1 near the coast of central Peru
10/4/1994 13:22:00 8.3 Kuril Islands
10/9/1995 15:35:00 8.0 Near Coast of Jalisco, Mexico
Six

11/10/1938 20:18:00 8.2 Shumagin Islands, Alaska
11/11/1922 4:32:00 8.5 Chile-Argentina Border
11/15/2006 11:14:00 8.3 Kuril Islands
11/16/2000 4:54:00 8.0 New Ireland region, Papua New Guinea
11/25/1941 18:03:00 8.2 Azores-Cape St. Vincent Ridge
11/27/1945 21:57:00 8.0 off the coast of Pakistan
11/4/1952 16:58:00 9.0 Kamchatka, Russia
11/6/1958 22:58:00 8.3 Kuril Islands
Eight

12/12/1908 12:08:00 8.2 off the coast of central Peru
12/12/1979 7:59:00 8.1 near the coast of Ecuador
12/20/1946 19:19:00 8.1 Nankaido, Japan
12/23/2004 14:59:00 8.1 north of Macquarie Island
12/26/2004 0:58:00 9.1 off the west coast of northern Sumatra
12/4/1957 3:37:00 8.1 Gobi-Altai, Mongolia
12/7/1944 4:35:00 8.1 Tonankai, Japan
Seven

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In honor of my last year on Earth and the end of the world...

Lol.

Heck, at least show people where they can go and get it.

Quoting KoritheMan:


As horrible as that is (I haven't watched it either), did we really need to be made aware of something we already knew? It's not a secret that Africa is a relatively poor nation, which obviously extends to living conditions and government control as well.
come on kori, Africa isn't a nation ;p
Quoting KoritheMan:
Fair enough. I guess I'm just not as comfortable as you and Levi are with that. I'm a short-range weather forecaster, and I think it tends to be much more pragmatic in the long run. I consider anything beyond seven days a crapshoot anyway, as though we may be able to pinpoint the large scale pattern across a given area subsequent to that point (even then it's not always the case), precise timing, amplification, and certain mesoscale details remain inherently muddled.

We've come a long way, but we need to come a lot further before we can confidently assess the weather beyond an arbitrary short-range point.
I use the long range models to create generalizations about what the weather will be like during that time. I don't look at specific storms that a operational model shows, but I do look at the ensemble run 500mb heights and anomalies, as well as forecasted temperature, precipitation and MSLP anomalies over large areas. From these anomalies I can make general predictions about the long range weather without having to worry about specifics like a storm showing up at a certain time with a particular intensity. If I see strong consistency between runs and among models, than I can make these predictions with a good amount of confidence.
Quoting TomTaylor:
come on kori, Africa isn't a nation ;p


I admitted it was a misnomer to Shen awhile back. I tend to call all continents nations for some strange reason, even though I know it's incorrect. Old habits die hard I guess.

ETA: I guess because we colloquially refer to North America as simply "America", and from there, we label it a nation?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Found this interesting letter on it.

Dear Jason Russell,
After being bombarded with your KONY 2012 crusade, I have no choice but to respond to your highly inaccurate, offensive, and harmful propaganda. I realized I had to respond in hopes of stopping you before you cause more violence and deaths to the Acholi people (Northern Ugandans), the very people you are claiming to protect. Firstly, I would like to question your timing of this KONY 2012 crusade in Uganda when most of the violence from Joseph Kony and the LRA (The Lord’s Resistance Army) has subsided in Uganda in the past 5 years. The LRA has moved onto neighboring countries like the DRC and Sudan. Why are you not urging action in the countries he is currently in? Why are you worried about Kony all of a sudden when Ugandans are not at this present moment?
This grossly illogical timing and statements on your website such as “Click here to buy your KONY 2012 products” makes me believe that the timing has more to do with your commercial interests than humanitarian interests. With the upcoming U.S. presidential elections and the waning interest in Invisible Children, it seems to be perfect timing to start a crusade. I also must add at this point how much it personally disgusts me the way in which you have commercialized a conflict in which thousands of people have died.
Secondly, I would like to address the highly inaccurate content of your video. Your video did not leave the viewer any more knowledgeable about the conflict in Uganda, but only emotionally assaulted. I could not help but notice how conveniently one-sided the “explanation” in your video was. There was absolutely no mention of the role of the Ugandan government and military in the conflict. Let alone the role of the U.S. government and military. The only information given is “KONY MUST BE STOPPED.”
I would like to inform you that stopping Kony would not end the conflict. (It is correctly pronounced “Kohn” by the way). This conflict is deeply embedded in Uganda’s history that neither starts nor ends with Kony. Therefore, your solution to the problem is flawed. There is no way to know the solution, without full knowledge of the problem itself. We must act on knowledge, not emotions.
Joseph Kony formed the LRA in retaliation to the brutality of President Museveni (from the south) committing mass atrocities on the Acholi people (from the north) when President Museveni came to power in 1986. This follows a long history of Ugandan politics that can be traced back to pre-colonial times. The conflict must be contextualized within this history. (If you want to have this proper knowledge, I suggest you start by working with scholars, not celebrities). President Museveni is still in power and in his reign of 26 years he has arguably killed as many, if not more Acholi people, than Joseph Kony. Why is President Museveni not demonized, let alone mentioned? I would like to give you more credit than just ignorance. I have three guesses. One is that Invisible Children has close ties with the Ugandan government and military, which it has been accused of many times. Second, is that you are willing to fight Kony, but not the U.S. Government, which openly supports President Museveni. Third, is that Invisible Children feels the need to reduce the conflict to better commercialize it.
This brings me to my third issue, the highly offensive nature of your video. Firstly, it is offensive to your viewer. The scene with your “explanation” of the conflict to your toddler son suggests that the viewers have the mental capacity of a toddler and can only handle information given in such a reductionist manner. I would like to think American teenagers and young adults (which is clearly your target audience) are smarter than your toddler son. I would hope that we are able to realize that it is not a “Star Wars” game with aliens and robots in some far off galaxy as your son suggests, but a real world conflict with real world people in Uganda. This is a real life conflict with real life consequences.
Secondly, and more importantly, it is offensive to Ugandans. The very name “Invisible Children” is offensive. You claim you make the invisible, visible. The statements, “We have seen these kids.” and “No one knew about these kids.” are part of your slogan. You seem to be strongly hinting that you somehow have validated and found these kids and their struggles.
Whether you see them or not, they were always there. Your having seen the kids does not validate their existence in any shape or form or bring it any more significance. You say “no one” knew about the kids. What about the kids themselves? What about the families of the kids who were killed and abducted? Are they “no one?” Are they not human?
These children are not invisible, you are making them invisible by silencing, dehumanizing, marketing, and invalidating them.
Last year I went to Gulu, Uganda, where Invisible Children is based, and interviewed over 50 locals. Every single person questioned Invisible Children’s legitimacy and intention. Every single person. If anything, it seemed the people saw Invisible Children as a bigger threat than Joseph Kony at the time. Why is it the very people you are trying to “help” feel more offense than relief with your aid?
“They come here to make money and use us.”
“It makes us feel terrible to be presented as being so stupid and helpless.”
These are direct quotes. This was the sentiment of the majority of the people that I interviewed in varying degrees. I definitely didn’t see or hear these voices or opinions in your video. If you are to be “saving” the Acholi people, the very least you can be doing is holding yourself accountable to them and actually listening to what they have to say.
This offensive, inaccurate misconstruction of Ugandans and its conflict makes me wonder what and whom this is really about. It seems that you feel very good about yourself being a savior, a Luke Skywalker of sorts, and same with the girl in your video who passionately states, “This is what defines us”. Therefore, I can’t help but wonder if Invisible Children is more about defining the American do-gooders (and making them feel good), rather than the Ugandans; profiteering the American military and corporations (which Invisible Children is officially and legally) than the conflict.
Lastly, I would like to address the harmful nature of your propaganda. I believe your actions will actually bring back the fighting in Northern Uganda. You are not asking for peace, but violence. The fighting has stopped in the past 5 years and the Acholi are finally enjoying some peace. You will be inviting the LRA and the fighting back into Uganda and disturbing this peace. The last time Invisible Children got politically involved and began lobbying it actually caused more violence and deaths. I beg you not to do it again.
If you open your eyes and see the actions of the Ugandan government and the U.S. government, you will see why. Why is it that suddenly in October of 2011 when there has been relative peace in Uganda for 4 years, President Obama decided to send troops into Uganda? Why is it that the U.S. military is so involved with AFRICOM, which has been pervading African countries, including Uganda? Why is it that U.S. has been traced to creating the very weapons that has been used in the violence? The U.S. is entering Uganda and other countries in Africa not to stop violence, but to create a new battlefield.
In your video you urge that the first course of action is that the Ugandan military needs American military and weapons. You are giving weapons to the very people who were killing the Acholi people in the first place. You are helping to open the grounds for America to make Uganda into a battlefield in which it can profit and gain power. Please recognize this is all part of a bigger military movement, not a humanitarian movement. This will cause deaths, not save lives. This will be doing more harm, than good.
You end your video with saying, “I will stop at nothing”. If nothing else, will you not stop for the lives of the Acholi people? Haven’t enough Acholi people suffered in the violence between the LRA and the Ugandan government? Our alliance should not be with the U.S. government or the Ugandan military or the LRA, but the Acholi people. There is a Ugandan saying that goes, “The grass will always suffer when two elephants fight.” Isn’t it time we let the grass grow?
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Amber Ha
Amber brings up good points.

1. Invisible Children is known to be a relatively irresponsible group when it comes to handling their donations.
2. The whole idea behind centering this on Uganda when Kony has actually left Uganda really doesn't make sense.
3. The Ugandan government and military which they are trying to support has many problems itself.

I do disagree with the way the author attacks the commercialization of the issue, this is how they are spreading awareness, and they have done a damn good job of it. I also disagree with the bold part. The United States' involvement with Africa's many problems has been slow for the most part and never too forceful. I completely disagree with America trying to create a new battleground, if anything we have tried to avoid conflict in Africa.



Anyway, I think as a whole this Kony 2012 campaign will do far more good than bad, and it has already helped raise a large amount of awareness. However, there are clearly some problems with how Invisible Children uses their funds and the overall goal of this campaign.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I admitted it was a misnomer to Shen awhile back. I tend to call all continents nations for some strange reason, even though I know it's incorrect. Old habits die hard I guess.

ETA: I guess because we colloquially refer to North America as simply "America", and from there, we label it a nation?
i was just yankin your chain lol
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Btw for the people with a good sense of humor: Link

The good sense of humor is a warning btw.
hahah
Quoting TomTaylor:
i was just yankin your chain lol


I know. <3
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic...

I fear that another major earthquake is about to strike somewhere in the world soon.



2011 - Japan 9.0 megaquake/tsunami
2010 - Chile 8.8
2009 - Samoa 8.3
2008 - China 8.0 deadly quake
2007 - Peru 8.0

2012 - ?? coming soon
let's be real. It will happen even if we do not want
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic...

I fear that another major earthquake is about to strike somewhere in the world soon.



2011 - Japan 9.0 megaquake/tsunami
2010 - Chile 8.8
2009 - Samoa 8.3
2008 - China 8.0 deadly quake
2007 - Peru 8.0

2012 - ?? coming soon
let's be real. It will happen even if we do not want
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic...

I fear that another major earthquake is about to strike somewhere in the world soon.



2011 - Japan 9.0 megaquake/tsunami
2010 - Chile 8.8
2009 - Samoa 8.3
2008 - China 8.0 deadly quake
2007 - Peru 8.0

2012 - ?? coming soon
let's be real. It will happen even if we do not want
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic...

I fear that another major earthquake is about to strike somewhere in the world soon.



2011 - Japan 9.0 megaquake/tsunami
2010 - Chile 8.8
2009 - Samoa 8.3
2008 - China 8.0 deadly quake
2007 - Peru 8.0

2012 - ?? coming soon
let's be real. It will happen even if we do not want
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic...

I fear that another major earthquake is about to strike somewhere in the world soon.



2011 - Japan 9.0 megaquake/tsunami
2010 - Chile 8.8
2009 - Samoa 8.3
2008 - China 8.0 deadly quake
2007 - Peru 8.0

2012 - ?? coming soon
let's be real. It will happen even if we do not want





Planetary Alignment / Earthquake Watch March 21-22, 2012




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLoK-d4cMSw
Good morning on this Saturday.Remember to move your clocks ahead one hour tonight. A good weekend in general here with only the usual afternoon showers in interior PR.

Have you noticed that the ITCZ is void of clouds? Hmmm,that West African drought that continues is taking it's toll already and combined with colder sst's,is causing the convergence zone to not be active at this time.




Good morning

Quoting Patrap:
Killing over 100 million Humans in the last Century, well, yeah, Look where we are today.

War is Mans Highest Art.


But this connectivity here is erasing all the old paradigms fast and with a ever growing intellect and language.

He possess's the Tools to kill off the entire Worlds Population with a Keystroke,in a matter of Hours..yet a Billion go Hungry every day.

Show me the advance?

Im a good listener.












If this were mankind's legacy we would be only fit for extinction but, thank goodness, it is only our culture's legacy. Even today there are a few untouched cultures on the planet that manage to live in relative peace with their neighbor human beings and, more importantly, in peace with the rest of the biosphere.

The massive challenge for the people of our culture will be to change the present economic and governmental paradigm before we manage to make the entire planet uninhabitable.

I submit that world-wide we are seeing the first glimmers of the new worldview. Some examples you can google are the horizontalism movement of 2001 Argentina, the 15M movement in Spain, the P2P movement, and most recently aspects of the Occupy Movement here in the US. There is reason to hope but the reaction of present power structure in our corporate culture will continue to be suppression through violence.

While I'm very excited to watch this birth of great promise, I'm most sad that it seems to be my own government that is most able and determined to crush this wonderful butterfly even before it emerges from the chrysalis. I believe my government will fail and that makes me very happy.

There are better days a'coming. Educate yourself and rejoice.
Nearly four feet of rain has fallen in some parts of Hawaii over the past week. In addition, Oahu was pummelled by hailstones larger than 3", a size NWS Honolulu says is "unprecedented" there.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1155 AM HST FRI MAR 9 2012


...TORRENTIAL RAINS SLAM HAWAII IN THE PAST WEEK...

A SLOW MOVING FRONT BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN TO MOST ISLANDS THE PAST
WEEK...AS IT INTERACTED WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT. THE
FOLLOWING REPRESENTS 7-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS...FROM 11 AM FRIDAY MARCH
2 THROUGH 11 AM FRIDAY MARCH 9.

THESE PRELIMINARY TOTALS WERE CALCULATED USING PROVISIONAL REPORTS
FROM AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES THAT HAVE NOT BEEN QUALITY CONTROLLED.

LOCATION AMOUNT

KAUAI
/HNIH1/ HANALEI 45.97
/WNHH1/ WAINIHA POWER HOUSE 43.84
/KPIH1/ KAPAHI 32.66
/WLLH1/ MOUNT WAIALEALE RAINGAGE 31.32
/WLDH1/ WAILUA DITCH - USGS 28.23
/KLOH1/ KILOHANA RG - USGS 26.88
/WUHH1/ WAILUA UH EXP STN 24.17


OAHU
/OFRH1/ OAHU FOREST NWR 39.65
/MOGH1/ MOANALUA - USGS - USGS 36.42
/PNSH1/ PUNALUU STREAM - USGS 31.46
/WITH1/ WILSON TUNNEL 25.05
/LULH1/ LULUKU 22.25
/KNRH1/ KAHANA STREAM RAIN GAGE - USGS 21.17
/NUUH1/ NUUANU UPPER 20.99
/PTWH1/ PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER 20.47
Quoting KoritheMan:


We are not going to get a full-fledged El Nino this summer. I'll seriously give you $20 if we do.


I agree, looking at the general setup right now I am leaning towards warm neutral, with a slightly above average season with 13 named - similar to 1999 perhaps, though it is too early to name a real analog year. However, a El Nino over the winter would not be a surprise.
Cybr, do you think this 2012 Atlantic season will consist of the majority of the systems that will form to be Homegrowns?
a href="" target="_blank">Link
March 2, 2012 Tornadoes: VIA GOES NOAA

Unbelievable. Look at the WARMTH predicted. Wow

click to enlarge
Here are a couple of relaxing songs for those who might need it....Link..................................Link
morning all..
My numbers for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season are 12/7/3. I would like to see soon our friend Levi32 begin to do his tidbits.
I see Koji got an intensity of 70 knots last night..das cool :D
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


i wish Jose could have looked like that...
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Cybr, do you think this 2012 Atlantic season will consist of the majority of the systems that will form to be Homegrowns?


I think it will be, yes.
Phil Klotzbach/Dr Gray will release a brief update for the Atlantic 2012 Hurricane Season on March 21rst. Read the press release below.

NEWS

03/07/2012

Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray will put out a brief update for their outlook for the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season on Wednesday, March 21. This brief outlook will be released prior to the start of the National Hurricane Conference and will discuss some of the changes that have occurred in various large-scale atmosphere and ocean patterns since their initial outlook put out in early December. The probabilities for the four scenarios discussed in the early December outlook will be updated at that time. The first seasonal forecast with numbers will come out as originally scheduled on Wednesday, April 4.

Link
Look how close we are to the record number of tornadoes (red line). I hope this does not continue through Spring...at least, not in populated areas.

well, im hungry. time to go git somtin to eat, bbl
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I think it will be, yes.

With that, will the vast majority of number of storms form in the GOM?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Look how close we are to the record number of tornadoes (red line). I hope this does not continue through Spring...at least, not in populated areas.


Any threat of any tornado outbreaks within the next 10 days or so? I'm only asking because the eastern 2/3 of the conterminous U.S. will see average temperatures significantly above average.
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Any threat of any tornado outbreaks within the next 10 days or so? I'm only asking because the eastern 2/3 of the conterminous U.S. will see average temperatures significantly above average.

The GFS is showing a major outbreak next weekend across the Central Plains.
I posted the CPC's 6-10 day outlook earlier. The 8-14 day outlook doesn't appear much cooler.

click for larger image
Moreover, the 12Z GFS run coming out about now is verifying this trend at least up until the next two weeks.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS is showing a major outbreak next weekend across the Central Plains.

Okay, thanks!

I can always count on you and a few others for these things.

:P
Quoting KeyWestSun:

With that, will the vast majority of number of storms form in the GOM?

It will depend on a couple of things:
A. Water temperature- Should be very favorable for tropical systems
B. Shear- Tough to predict that, but obviously if the shear is low that will be favorable for storms
C. Dry air- This was a big issue last year (won't mention names... DON) If the Texas drought stays bad this could be an issue but if Texas gets into a more moist pattern like it is right now that could be very favorable for storms.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It will depend on a couple of things:
A. Water temperature- Should be very favorable for tropical systems
B. Shear- Tough to predict that, but obviously if the shear is low that will be favorable for storms
C. Dry air- This was a big issue last year (won't mention names... DON) If the Texas drought stays bad this could be an issue but if Texas gets into a more moist pattern like it is right now that could be very favorable for storms.

Then it sounds to me like it's all in the hands of the Texas Death Ridge. If it forms, expect "Don-like" storms or none at all. If not, then maybe the gates of tropical activity will open for you guys. And if that's the case, I'll be pulling for a large, moderate-intensity TS, as those are the best for rain. Although I don't mean another Alison. I'm not that mean!!
Designated Counties

Disaster Summary For FEMA-DR-4058, Indiana

Declaration Date: March 9, 2012

Incident: Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, and Tornadoes

Incident Period: February 29, 2012 to March 3, 2012

Individual Assistance
(Assistance to individuals and households):

Clark County, Jefferson County, Ripley County, Scott County, Warrick County, and Washington County.
766. wxmod
Imagine driving a thousand miles and never seeing the sun because of air pollution. How can you get energy from solar panels in this environment? China today. MODIS

Quoting WxGeekVA:


With the great power we have we have the responsibility to use it for good.


NO!

Good is subjective, and much pain and suffering has come about from people using power for whatever their version of "good" is. Then more often than not, the temptation of power corrupts and what may have started out as something "good" turns into a nightmare. The road to hell is paved with good intentions and all that.

Whenever you use great power, you must consider every possible consequence of your actions. Even if it would appear your actions are good, they can have drastic unintended consequences.
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Then it sounds to me like it's all in the hands of the Texas Death Ridge. If it forms, expect "Don-like" storms or none at all. If not, then maybe the gates of tropical activity will open for you guys. And if that's the case, I'll be pulling for a large, moderate-intensity TS, as those are the best for rain. Although I don't mean another Alison. I'm not that mean!!

Another Hermine would be nice. 15" in 12 hours, all the inconvenience of heavy rain over quick.

She was a ~teleconnect storm, and as we see the SW PAC has saved us since last Sept. with all the moisture it's given us.
Xyrus, I like your comment. I thought immediately of two examples.

1. Europeans took Indian children away from their parents, especially in the West, and sent them to boarding schools where they had no contact with their family, language or culture. They even took the children's names away. This was meant for good, yet it did irreparable harm to the children, their families and their culture. What was "good" to the Europeans was most "evil" for the Native Americans.

2. Building of levees to protect cities in floodplains has had some remarkably negative short and long-term impacts on the Mississippi flood plain. The most recent example is the opening of that spillway to avert catastrophic flooding of, I believe, the southernmost town in Illinois.

It's easy to "mean well", but not always so easy to "do all the good you can"....
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Lol... It looks the same as when it was 35 knots: A big blob of convection

I guess they are going on more than just the satellite photo on their computer screen.
Quoting wxmod:
Imagine driving a thousand miles and never seeing the sun because of air pollution. How can you get energy from solar panels in this environment? China today. MODIS

I heard a news story about the dust storms from China reaching Korea. It said the dust originates in the Gobi Desert. Link.

"Intense dust storms have blown across Korea throughout recorded history, but their frequency and intensity have increased in recent decades."
Quoting Xyrus2000:


NO!

Good is subjective, and much pain and suffering has come about from people using power for whatever their version of "good" is. Then more often than not, the temptation of power corrupts and what may have started out as something "good" turns into a nightmare. The road to hell is paved with good intentions and all that.

Whenever you use great power, you must consider every possible consequence of your actions. Even if it would appear your actions are good, they can have drastic unintended consequences.


Very nice point!

Hitler really did think that he was doing the world good by starting the Holocaust and WW2.
This video made me feel uncomfortable, I wouldn't recommend watching it if you don't like seeing death. It happened today though, so RIP whoever this skier was...

Quoting KoritheMan:


As horrible as that is (I haven't watched it either), did we really need to be made aware of something we already knew? It's not a secret that Africa is a relatively poor nation, which obviously extends to living conditions and government control as well.



Africa isn't a nation, its a continent :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's ridiculous, I could not live without soft drinks.



Are you serious? Living off soft drinks is very unhealthy. Its not that they can't be touched, but consuming them every day, especially if you aren't drinking large amounts of water, is very hazardous. Besides, why would you want to? It will make you in poor health and make you feel like crap.


The irony of your statement is if you gave up dependance on soft drinks in exchange for water you will not only be healthier but you will feel healthier. I can guarantee it. You can always treat yourself to an occasional soda, just don't drink a lot of it.

I drink a lot of water and a lot of tea on a regular basis, and fitness is essential to go along with healthy drinking habits.


I myself have a soda once or twice a week, and a couple beers on the weekend. I just drink a lot of water to make up for any soda, of course with weight training and cardio I drink extra water.
Good morning guys
Quoting Jedkins01:



Are you serious? You need intervention. Living off soft drinks is very unhealthy. Its not that they can't be touched, but consuming them every day, especially if you aren't drinking large amounts of water, is very hazardous. Besides, why would you want to? It will make you in poor health and make you feel like crap.

I feel fine and am in good health. Plus, I like drinking them. Problem? It's not like I'm you, drink all the water you want. :P
What do you guys think about slight modification of the hurricane intensity scale
Quoting nigel20:
What do you guys think about slight modification of the hurrricane intensity scale?

They just fixed some of the knot to miles per hour conversions.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I feel fine and am in good health. Plus, I like drinking them. Problem? It's not like I'm you, drink all the water you want. :P
Beer is good for drinking. Healthy delicious beer. Especially home brewed. Nothing that has ever existed in the Universe surpasses it. ... It is liquid God.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They just fixed some of the knot to miles per hour conversions.

Yeah...I know
all that matters is hits. yu can have 20 storms buzzing around in the mid atlantic and none effect anyone. good luck everyone 2012 hurricane season
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They just fixed some of the knot to miles per hour conversions.
I am glad its done.. Mets have complained about it for years.
Quoting hydrus:
Beer is good for drinking. Healthy delicious beer. Especially home brewed. Nothing that has ever existed in the Universe surpasses it. It is liquid God.
confiscated all the kids beer when they were underage now i cant drink anything but busch light
Quoting BahaHurican:
Xyrus, I like your comment. I thought immediately of two examples.

1. Europeans took Indian children away from their parents, especially in the West, and sent them to boarding schools where they had no contact with their family, language or culture. They even took the children's names away. This was meant for good, yet it did irreparable harm to the children, their families and their culture. What was "good" to the Europeans was most "evil" for the Native Americans.

2. Building of levees to protect cities in floodplains has had some remarkably negative short and long-term impacts on the Mississippi flood plain. The most recent example is the opening of that spillway to avert catastrophic flooding of, I believe, the southernmost town in Illinois.

It's easy to "mean well", but not always so easy to "do all the good you can"....


What isn't good about stopping a man from kidnapping children and forcing them to fight, making them slaves, and other unspeakable things that he makes them do? How can someone in good conscience refuse to do anything to help stop these crimes and bring this man to justice? How could you make a comparison of Hitler and his "Final Solution" that he wrongly thought was good, to an international effort of which is to stop crimes similar to that from occurring?

Come on, if you don't want to help, or if you are unable to just say so. Don't make up a flimsy excuse such as "Is this really good we are doing?" because if you really think that this isnt a good cause or the right thing to do, maybe you should take a step back and consider what your morals and values are.
Tennessee Tornadoes; Decadal Totals

Bobby Boyd
Meteorologist
National Weather Service
Nashville, Tennessee


From January 1st, 1950 through December 31st, 2009 there were 997 tornadoes documented in Tennessee with 304 fatalities and 3860 injuries. When looking at the data there is a noticeable increase in the number of tornadoes during the last two decades of record. There are several possibilities for this increase. One of which is the improvement in weather radar technology such as the doppler radars that were commissioned in Tennessee in the mid 1990's. Doppler weather radars have allowed meteorologists to see storms that might contain rotation sooner than the conventional radars of the 1950's and 60's. Also public awareness has increased along with the proliferation of digital and video cameras which means many more small tornadoes are now sighted and tracked that probably would have been missed many years ago. Also, the urbanization of Tennessee since the 1950's has led to an increased awareness. Tornadoes that once moved through areas where vast farm land existed are now moving through subdivisions, apartment complexes and shopping centers. For these reasons tornado records from earlier decades such as the 1950's are not comparable with the record of recent years.



Tennessee Tornadoes, Decadal Totals

Tennessee Tornadoes by Decade

Decade Tornadoes Fatal Injuries
1950-1959 97 91 817
1960-1969 76 11 154
1970-1979 185 59 1267
1980-1989 118 8 142
1990-1999 223 35 727
2000-2009 298 100 753




Quoting islander101010:
confiscated all the kids beer when they were underage now i cant drink anything but busch light
Busch Lite is o.k..We liked Busch back in the day because you could buy a case for 6 bucks.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I feel fine and am in good health. Plus, I like drinking them. Problem? It's not like I'm you, drink all the water you want. :P


See here is the problem, I'm not an alien, I too, have human body, and am subjected to it, just as you are.


This isn't about preference its about health. I know, I might be sounding a bit harsh, and its never fun being called out. But seriously man, living off soft drinks, is not good for the body, and the brain gets used to unhealthy living and no longer is aware of the poor conditioning, just as people who are obese aren't aware of how great is to be athletic, even though everyone else who is athletic from the outside sees how horrible the problem is.


I'm actually trying to help you man, because it is very unhealthy, denying it doesn't make it any more healthy, it just makes it that much harder to change. I'm not saying this to judge your character or anything, I too when I was younger drank nothing but soda, and not only am I a lot healthier now then I was then but I feel a lot better too!


What you aren't realizing is that it is human condition for one to think they are ok while being subjected to a problem, its hard for someone to realize what its like to be free from something till they are really free from it, our brain gets used to being subjected to what it should not, so to speak. us humans have tendencies of wearing a veil and not realizing how bad a problem is till we listen to those who are trying to help and we finally overcome that problem :)




The problem is trying to stop feels horrible at first for a long time, its how the brain works, but eventually that irritability goes away and you are are free!
Quoting Jedkins01:


See here is the problem, I'm not an alien, I too, have human body, and am subjected to it, just as you are.


This isnm't aboutr preference its about health. I know, I'm soundinf harsh, and its never fun being called out. But seriously man, living off soft drinks, is not good for the body, and the brain gets used to unhealthy living and no longer is aware of the poor conditioning, just as people who are obese aren't aware of how great is to be athletic, even though everyone else who is athletic from the outside sees how horrible the problem is.


I'm actually trying to help you man, because it is very unhealthy, denying it doesn't make it any more healthy, it just makes it that much harder to change. I'm not saying this to judge your character or anything, I too when I was younger drank nothing but soda, and not only am I a lot healthier now then I was then but I feel a lot better too!


What you aren't realizing is that it is human condition for one to think they are ok while being subjected to a problem, its hard for someone to realize what its like to be free from something till they are really free from it, our brain gets used to being subjected to what it should not, so to speak. us humans have tendencies of wearing a veil and not realizing how bad a problem is till we listen to those who are trying to help and we finally overcome that problem :)

I don't drink soft drinks all the time, I drink juices and stuff (like Gatorade) as well. It's just, my primary drink is Mountain Dew.
The sun just produced an M7 M8 flare (and is in fact still in the middle of doing so).

http://www.solarham.com/
Click on the sun to take you to the brand new blog entry.

Slight Risk for Sunday.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't drink soft drinks all the time, I drink juices and stuff (like Gatorade) as well. It's just, my primary drink is Mountain Dew.


Well, that's my point, your primary drink shouldn't be mountain dew, that's a bad health condition.

I mean, you could even drink soda every day if you balanced it out with fitness and a lot of water. Drinking soda every day still isn't healthy but if you drink lots of water as well and have regular exercise it apposes dramatically that hazardous effects on health that frequent consumption of soda causes.

If you slowly replace drinking soda with say more water, sweet tea, fruit juice, and gatorade, it will help. Like I said you don't have to give up drinking soda all together, although completely doing without soda is a health benefit, I myself drink soda occasionally and there is nothing wrong with occasional soda by any means if you already have an all around healthy life style.

I can't change what you do, but definitely be aware of what I've said.


heck even some beer isn't bad, drinking it constantly isn't good either, but I always crack open a couple six packs with my friends on Saturday nights :)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic...

I fear that another major earthquake is about to strike somewhere in the world soon.



2011 - Japan 9.0 megaquake/tsunami
2010 - Chile 8.8
2009 - Samoa 8.3
2008 - China 8.0 deadly quake
2007 - Peru 8.0

2012 - ?? coming soon
let's be real. It will happen even if we do not want


Well, yeah. On average there are one or two major quakes (8.0 or greater magnitude) every year. And magnitude 6 or greater earthquakes happen every two to three days. Here are the stats: anLink.

It would be more surprising if there wasn't a major quake this year.
Quoting hydrus:
I am glad its done.. Mets have complained about it for years.



Yeah, I'm glad they did too!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Click on the Sun!

Quoting Xyrus2000:


NO!

Good is subjective, and much pain and suffering has come about from people using power for whatever their version of "good" is. Then more often than not, the temptation of power corrupts and what may have started out as something "good" turns into a nightmare. The road to hell is paved with good intentions and all that.

Whenever you use great power, you must consider every possible consequence of your actions. Even if it would appear your actions are good, they can have drastic unintended consequences.


You are correct, the human mind is wicked in deceit, and its not what goes in man that's the problem but what comes out.

We must test what someones idea of good is, us humans might have a moral law in our mind but be are easily corrupted and deceive ourselves in the process.

We all need wise and loving people around us not only to give us company and companionship but to challenge us when we head in the wrong direction, which we often do.

Hitler and his party ran as "good guys" and the nation believed it, we all know how that went...



Meanwhile, the U.S. government little by little is attempting to head in a similar direction, in both parties, we must wake up and put an end to it.
Quoting hydrus:
Busch Lite is o.k..We liked Busch back in the day because you could buy a case for 6 bucks.



Busch beer, nastyyyyyyy.


How about Milwaukee's Best. Now that is some cheap beer! It certainly is NOT actually Milwaukee's best, that's for sure! LOL
Quoting Jedkins01:



Busch beer, nastyyyyyyy.


How about Milwaukee's Best. Now that is some cheap beer! It certainly is NOT actually Milwaukee's best, that's for sure! LOL
It was the best bang for the buck Jed..:)
Quoting WxGeekVA:


What isn't good about stopping a man from kidnapping children and forcing them to fight, making them slaves, and other unspeakable things that he makes them do? How can someone in good conscience refuse to do anything to help stop these crimes and bring this man to justice? How could you make a comparison of Hitler and his "Final Solution" that he wrongly thought was good, to an international effort of which is to stop crimes similar to that from occurring?

Come on, if you don't want to help, or if you are unable to just say so. Don't make up a flimsy excuse such as "Is this really good we are doing?" because if you really think that this isnt a good cause or the right thing to do, maybe you should take a step back and consider what your morals and values are.


How can going after a bad guy like this be a bad thing? He kidnaps, torments, and enslaves children correct?

Well you'd be pretty foolish to think that he could do that all by himself. After all, the kids end up being part of his army eventually. Like any such group, the more senior members get granted power. Even the underlings get tempted by the power. They have a vested interest; the have more than they would otherwise. Going in there and killing Kony would do absolutely nothing other than create a power vacuum within the group, and possibly in the larger surrounding area. The more senior members of the group would either select a new leader or break into violent factions. Now instead of one evil POS you have several.

There is an entire psychology in place in such groups. You can't just go in there guns blazing and take out the leader. That doesn't work, and more than likely result in even worse problems. You need an understanding of the area and the problems people face there. You have to understand why someone would want to become part of such a group. Even simple drivers like hunger can be enough to take a reluctant child and turn them into a willing soldier.

This was the whole point behind my previous comment. The US has great power, but knee-jerk "bomb that SOB to hell" reactions, even when driven by a good cause, only leads to more problems. With great power comes great responsibility means that whenever you intend to use that power, you must be wise and use the utmost care in applying it. Otherwise you end up creating bigger problems.
801. wxmod
Quoting bappit:
I heard a news story about the dust storms from China reaching Korea. It said the dust originates in the Gobi Desert. Link.

"Intense dust storms have blown across Korea throughout recorded history, but their frequency and intensity have increased in recent decades."


Gobi Desert dust and smog look totally different on satellite photos. China is suffering from a smog epidemic. It is huge and is affecting the worlds weather. It is also well documented, so I hope you will pay more attention and learn to read satellite photos. They are available for free on the internet.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


How can going after a bad guy like this be a bad thing? He kidnaps, torments, and enslaves children correct?

Well you'd be pretty foolish to think that he could do that all by himself. After all, the kids end up being part of his army eventually. Like any such group, the more senior members get granted power. Even the underlings get tempted by the power. They have a vested interest; the have more than they would otherwise. Going in there and killing Kony would do absolutely nothing other than create a power vacuum within the group, and possibly in the larger surrounding area. The more senior members of the group would either select a new leader or break into violent factions. Now instead of one evil POS you have several.

There is an entire psychology in place in such groups. You can't just go in there guns blazing and take out the leader. That doesn't work, and more than likely result in even worse problems. You need an understanding of the area and the problems people face there. You have to understand why someone would want to become part of such a group. Even simple drivers like hunger can be enough to take a reluctant child and turn them into a willing soldier.

This was the whole point behind my previous comment. The US has great power, but knee-jerk "bomb that SOB to hell" reactions, even when driven by a good cause, only leads to more problems. With great power comes great responsibility means that whenever you intend to use that power, you must be wise and use the utmost care in applying it. Otherwise
you end up creating bigger problems.


Who said anything about killing him guns blazing Navy SEAL style? Arrest him, try him, find him guilty of course at the ICC at The Hague, and sentence him to death then. That should send a message to his followers and others like him in the region that what he did is unacceptable and you will eventually have justice served. Of course you will need military to capture him and bring him in but there will be no need to "bomb the hell out of them" for his arrest to occurr.
Very educational video put together by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Weather Partners. Watch it if you have not yet seen it.

Quoting hydrus:
It was the best bang for the buck Jed..:)



See I drink beer when I'm just relaxing with my friends by the creek or fishing, so I drink it to enjoy it. I don't drink to get drunk, in fact I never have been drunk before.


That being said, Busch beer doesn't cut it for me, lol.
From local forecast discussion:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MAR 13/14 - 19 YRS SINCE THE STORM OF THE CENTURY.

I CAN`T SAY THAT THE WX PATTERN FOR THE WK AHD LOOKS EVEN REMOTELY
LK A NMRL MID MARCH PATTERN. THE END OF WINTER LOOKS LK IT`S GOING
TO OUT W/ A WHIMPER..
.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I feel fine and am in good health. Plus, I like drinking them. Problem? It's not like I'm you, drink all the water you want. :P
Actually there is a fair amount of scientific evidence out there that excessive consumption of soft drinks among teens can lead to both short and long term problems for them.

I don't think Jed meant don't drink another one. But I'd certainly not drink more than one a day, and get in as much water as you do other forms of liquid.

The key to this drinking thing [sodas, coffee, beer, other alcohol or sugar-based drinks] is moderation. It's the ABUSE that kills...

And the bit with the negative impact gets worse in the 40s and 50s, so all u old guys out there.... lol
Quoting WxGeekVA:


What isn't good about stopping a man from kidnapping children and forcing them to fight, making them slaves, and other unspeakable things that he makes them do? How can someone in good conscience refuse to do anything to help stop these crimes and bring this man to justice? How could you make a comparison of Hitler and his "Final Solution" that he wrongly thought was good, to an international effort of which is to stop crimes similar to that from occurring?

Come on, if you don't want to help, or if you are unable to just say so. Don't make up a flimsy excuse such as "Is this really good we are doing?" because if you really think that this isnt a good cause or the right thing to do, maybe you should take a step back and consider what your morals and values are.
The problem isn't with "wanting" to help. The problem is with making sure your "solution" doesn't result in a greater problem in the long run. Like Prohibition contributed to organized crime rather than reducing it, as intended. Like removing a kid from an abusive home but not insuring that the foster home you put him in is a good one. Like getting out of your storm-surge vulnerable house and going to a location that isn't any less vulnerable.

What happens to these kids when they are out of the army? Do they just starve, become the victims of some new round of bullies, or become bullies themselves? I'm not objecting to helping, u know, VA; I'm saying let's think things through some more.
LOL...

Soft drinks,
Beer
Child armies
The nature of good

Some amazingly eclectic topics we are getting to today...
Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL...

Soft drinks,
Beer
Child armies
The nature of good

Some amazingly eclectic topics we are getting to today...


Better than AGW, politics, and religion!

Wait.... Why did I just say that?
LOL... just thought the same thing....
Good night guys
what's up guys are you gone to bed?
Not much weather related activity occured today it would seem!
I came on at the wrong time...when noone is posting
I thought I read on here recently that there is drought in the Sahel region of Africa. Isn't that a harbinger of a suppressed Cape Verde season??

Hope you are feeling better than me - am coming down with something. Ugh.
Quoting Jedkins01:



See I drink beer when I'm just relaxing with my friends by the creek or fishing, so I drink it to enjoy it. I don't drink to get drunk, in fact I never have been drunk before.


That being said, Busch beer doesn't cut it for me, lol.
Come on Jed, try it again for the first time... Do it, for the proud staff at Anheuser Busch........do it for America.......do it...:)
This will be interesting.
This blog is so quiet you could hear a forecast discussion from Alaska come out....
Quoting WxGeekVA:
This blog is so quiet you could hear a forecast discussion from Alaska come out....
From last night to this morning, it is the slowest I have ever seen it.
Quoting hydrus:
From last night to this morning, it is the slowest I have ever seen it.


WAKE UP PEOPLE!!