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Fourth warmest October on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:56 PM GMT on November 23, 2006

October 2006 was the 4th warmest October on record globally, according to the latest monthly report issued by the National Climatic Data Center. The period January through October was the fifth warmest on record. The El Ni�o episode that began in September significantly warmed ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which helped make global ocean temperatures for October the 3rd warmest on record. Arctic sea ice extent remained near record low levels in October at 8.4 million square kilometers.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from normal (anomaly) for October 2006. Siberia and parts of Indonesia joined North America with having below normal temperatures.

An average October for the U.S.
According to the National Climatic Data Center, October of 2006 was near average for temperature in the U.S., ranking as the 52nd coolest in the 110-year record. It was a very wet October, ranking as the 12th wettest October on record. The period January to October ranks as the 3rd warmest such period on record in the U.S., thanks to some unusually warm weather in January, April, and July.

Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone! I'll have some thoughts on Florida hurricanes in Friday's blog, inspired by my just-completed trip to Florida.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Happy Thanksgiving to you too Dr. Masters from the not-so-sunny-today
Cayman Islands
Happy Thanksgiving Dr. Masters!!
This month has seen a big switch from October in the U.S. with the cold temperatures in Alaska and warmth over much of the Lower 48 except for the Southeast.
Have a happy Thanksgiving everyone including Jeffmasters and the rest of the Wunderground staff and everyone here who post on the blogs.

Whittier,CA.
Here in CT. we hit the 70's twice this October. both in late october!! very unusual
Happy Thanksgiving to Dr.Masters and all
Happy Thanksgiving from New Orleans to the Wunderground Family!..!4
Now this wind shift is definitely interesting
Link
Have a great Thanksgiving weekend, Dr. Masters. Thank you for the "blog of all blogs!"

Polk County, Florida
This November we had 11/12 days in a row of above average weather. 3 of thoes days where 90+. Today much cooler ^_^ and a chance of rain on Sunday could break the 119 days of no rain. Things are starting to look like fall here.
Happy Thanksgiving Dr. Masters! Being a Floridaian I am interested in your thoughts. Wish we could have has some warmer weather for you on your trip, not much different than Michigan! Still nice to get to the ocean, have a wonderful Turkey Day!
Welcome back Dr. Masters have a Happy Thanksgiving...
Favorable shear in the Carrib and GOM! Haven't seen that in a while. Good thing the season will be over by then.
There is a definate cyclonic spin down there in the SW caribbean.SEE LOOP


Surface low N of Panama

Link
Hi 23, just stopped by before i go to work to wish you and WU Happy Thanksgiving. Will check back later to see whats going on in the SW Caribbean



Judy
Turkey's DO know that it is Thanksgiving !! LOL

Link
Happy Thanksgiving you all.
Hey Dr. Masters, have yourself a wonderful Thanksgiving! Thanks for all the great posts :)
Happy Thanksgiving Dr. Masters and Everyone!
One of the things I can be thankful for today is the insightful and informative blogs and comments on WU.

Thanks to you Dr. Masters and all the WU staff and contributors for providing this Wunderful resource. May you all be blessed with much to be thankful for in this season and the coming year.
Hi LowerCal, have a happy thanksgiving as well as everybody else in the US. :)

Mine was 1 month ago so you dont need to say it.
Looks like the SW Caribbean feature has awesome outflow poleward, and decent outflow to the south as well.
I wouldn't be shocked if we had a TS by morning.
mine was a month ago too, SteveDa1 - where are you at? I'm about an hour southwest of Toronto..
Caffeinehog:

Weather in Grenada right now feels like a TS. Winds are uprooting my banana trees and giving me flashbacks to IVAN
Snowboy - I live near Montreal, in the suburbs, just to the east. Do you live near Hamilton?
That's a good looking blob.
Hi there, and happy Thanksgiving to all you Americans. Have a realy good one.
Are you still here Spicegirl ?
Kman ?????
Dr.Master and Family,

Hope that you and Your Family had a
Happy Thanksgiving.
Dr. Masters, I hope you and yours had a very nice Thanksgiving! Thanks so much for all your information during "The Season". It is much appreciated.
Thank you for everything that you do DR. MASTERS! I hope you have had a wonderful Thanksgiving!
hey there Pottery
Are you still on ?
Seems that when you are posting I am out and vice versa
SteveDa1, indeed I am near Hamilton (out in the woods about 20 minutes west of the City)..
Mail snowboy.
The blob doesn't look so impressive anymore, though it is still rotating.
Quickscat seems to suggest that a surface feature might be trying to form about halfway between Panama and Jamaica... not under the rotating part.
I'm really starting to think that the shear on the western side of the system is what is inhibiting this thing. I guess we'll see what happens.
37. Inyo
hey so-cal, looks like we may have some rain and mountain snow on the way this weekend.. perhaps up to a half an inch or so of rain in the lowlands. No rain is guaranteed until it hits the ground, but I hope this storm will bring us some rain and colder temperatures.

the long range GFS changes every run.. its pretty useless right now
UK storm

Does anyone have information about the storms due to hit the UK this weekend. Local papers are reporting wind speeds upto 120 KM / 75 MPH (category 1). Will this become a named storm?
UK Storm,

Does anyone have information on the storm due to hit the UK this weekend? 125kph / 75 mph Gusts. Category 1 ? Will this become a named storm?
DrDeath

I used to live there for 30+ years before we moved to Florida. Its just an average wet autumn storm and it won't be tropical in nature therefore no name ...just wet, cool and windy. Check out the laterst comment from the UK Met Office. Link
Please Cyclone, save it.
Nice; your link shows that everybody thinks your tunnels are fantasty... LOL... for example:

You are obviously going to keep this riduculous idea going no matter what anyone says. It sounds like you are troll to me. Anyone with some foresight can see that it is not a viable plan.

I don't feed trolls. I hope you had fun.


This is what I think too!
Hey guys I have a ?
does any of you know of a NOAA ship that is suppossed to port in Pensacola today???
I noticed the gfs shows frozen precip. in Louisiana next Fri. and then again the following Tues. Does anyone think this cold front will be as strong as the models are predicting?
The GFSx shows the storm Friday..but Im not convinved yet of the track or Coldness of the push out the plains.My confidence will increase if the runs show more consistency come Monday.Have travel Plans to Baton Rouge next Friday myself..heres the GFSx..10day...Link
Nothing NEAR warmth in the yukon... In fact it is extremely cold. The forecast High for sunday for Whitehorse, Yukon Territory is -35C (-31F), the normal is near -9C (15.8). That is a whooping 26C below normal (56.8F)!

Just look at the 14-day trend for Whitehorse, Yukon.

See for yourself the roller coaster. By december 6th the temperature could be at 0C (32F), what a difference! It would finnaly end the brutal cold in the Yukon and Alaska. But thats not good news for the people to the south I guess, because that cold air has to go somewhere... can't just dissapear.
Snow..New Orleans.Christmas Day 04q
crazybowler

The 1:05 discussion yesterday did discuss the possibility that a surface low was forming there but the 7:05pm discussion as well as the one this morning dropped it when the convection died down overnight. There now seems to be more consistency to the convection ( which is probably why the new mention of it ) but we will have to see if it falls off again this evening.
hI ALL.Pouring here.
Looks like the GHCC site is down as I have been unable to access it today. Anyone else have this problem ?

Also, I wonder when ( or if ) the Navy site will begin an invest ?
hi ryang

I see that. We have had very chilly weather and cool conditions for the last week but the sun is poking its head out again.
Looks like something brewing to our SSE near Panama
I am not getting that site either.
You see that convection on us.
ryang

not sure I understand the statement/question.
The convection over barbados.Go too stormcarib.com and see.
No invest required.Synoptic feature forecasted to remain nearly stationary.
ok. yes I see from the sat that you are getting showers but they seem to be the usual run of the mill stuff.
Too lat in the season for you to get anything other than rain IMO
obs from Panama confirm the blob is trying to get organised

Link
Pat

only until tomorrow. After that the typical track this time of yr is N to NNW then NE. Would they not do an invest to watch the feature develop even while stationary ??
Maybe..but the progs on this is nothing develops.But they can surprise us..as weve seen In the past.
Posted By: kmanislander at 4:25 PM GMT on November 24, 2006.

crazybowler

The 1:05 discussion yesterday did discuss the possibility that a surface low was forming there but the 7:05pm discussion as well as the one this morning dropped it when the convection died down overnight. There now seems to be more consistency to the convection ( which is probably why the new mention of it ) but we will have to see if it falls off again this evening.

I also remember 2 circulations yesterday,the more pronounced circulation was farther north, which is now non-existent, allowing the area to become better organized.
Still doesn't appear to be down to the surface yet.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2006


A 1006 MB
SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 11N79W.
Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EST on November 24, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

An area of disturbed weather has formed over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea just north of the coast of Panama. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next day or so as
it remains nearly stationary.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Saturday.

$$
Forecaster Beven
This area has indeed become somewhat better organized over the past couple of hours.Steering currents are rather weak down there so any movement of this area will be rather slow to stationary as the NHC is suggesting.

Here is a close-up visible shot of the area.



INFRARED SHOT
hi 23.
Hey at least we can say it will drift west! lol.
Hey ryang!
23 do you think it can affect any part of the US.
One thing to note if this area of disturbed weather trys to make a move to its north it will get swallowed alive by this massive area of dry air surrounding the northern caribbean and the gulf of mexico.


It wont get swallowed alive. It will be slow like a rat getting bitten by a snake and slowly digested:)
If this devolopes itl probaly be a td and just die.
That is weird here in Cayman we're in that dry air and it's 100% overcast and drizzling?
Here is a 2km visible loop of the disturbance in the SW Caribbean.

CLICK HERE