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Fourth warmest May on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:25 PM GMT on June 25, 2007

The tropical Atlantic remains quiet. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next week. The best chance of a new threat area to watch may not occur until July 1, when a strong cold front pushes off the U.S. East Coast.

The Middle East will see their second tropical cyclone of the month on Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone 3B crossed India, killing at least 140, and re-formed in the Arabian Sea, and is poised to hit Iran or Pakistan tomorrow. The View From the Surface blog is following this storm. We may looking at hundreds of years since the last time the Middle East was hit by two tropical cyclones in the same month. Tropical Cyclone Gonu pounded Oman and Iran earlier this month.

Fourth Warmest May on record
May 2007 was the fourth warmest May for the globe on record, and the period January - May of 2007 was tied with 1998 for the warmest such period ever, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The global average temperature for May was +0.53�C (+0.95�F) above the 20th century mean. Over land, May global temperatures were the warmest ever measured, the second straight month that has happened. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (ninth warmest on record), thanks to the cooling associated with the disappearance of the winter El Ni�o event. The global temperature record goes back 128 years.

May temperatures were particularly warm across Russia. Moscow recorded its highest May temperature since record keeping began 128 years ago--32.9�C (91.2�F). The heat forced Russia's energy administrator to restrict the use of non-residential energy for the first time in summer. In India, a heat wave during mid-May produced temperatures as high as 45-50�C (113-122�F) resulting in at least 128 fatalities. Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change blog has more on the India heat wave. Although record heat was more prevalent across the globe, Argentina experienced its coldest May in twenty years, and at least 23 fatalities were reported as a result of cold weather during the last week of May.

11th warmest May on record in the U.S.
In the U.S., May 2007 ranked as the 11th warmest since record keeping began in 1895. The period January through May was the 20th warmest such period on record. Spring (March - May) was 5th warmest on record in the continental U.S. The past six months (Dec-May) were the driest on record for the Southeast U.S. Portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee are experiencing exceptional drought. However, the drought has eased some since late May over the Florida Peninsula.


Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for May 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Sea ice extent
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for May was the third lowest on record, a modest recovery from the lowest ever sea ice coverage observed in April. Arctic sea ice coverage in May has declined by about 8% since measurements began in 1979 (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for May, for the years 1979-2007. May 2007 had the third lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. May sea ice coverage has declined about 8% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

I'll have a new blog on Tuesday.
Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Warm Comrades in Moscow..thanks Dr. Masters.
Good morning Pat.



Камрад Nash28 хорошего утра, Morning nash28
Da.
Weather conditions throughout the atlantic, caribbean and Gmex continue to be very hostile for tropical storm development. WHAT ARE THE MODELS PREDICTING AT THE MOMENT?

Link
The link to the National Snow and Ice Data Center did not work.
good morning everyone
Talking with a friend about this subject yesterday.. and I told him what I am about to say.. "..I have no problem believing man is doing irrecoverable changes to the enivorment, look at plastic bag.. going to take thousands of years for them to break down, not to mention nuclear waster.

However the earth has been around for millions of years and we only been keeping detailed records for the past 130 so odd years.. and yes I know about ice core samples that date 100's of thousands of years in the past.. but bottom line is they are meta weather patterns we have yet to even know about.. I mean just because we never seen a hurricane with winds speeds of a F5 doesn't mean it doesn't exist.. we just never seen it or recorded the event.."
Well, I have a problem saying that man is responsible for destroying the planet. I mean, how vain can we get to believe that the earth cannot and will not heal itself. Do we pollute? Of course. That being said, I do not want to get into another pissing match regarding global warming. Quite frankly, the subject is tired and I think most of us are pretty much sick of having it shoved down our throats day after day.

Rant over.
theres nothing in the tropics. i just got a weather station a few weeks ago and i am waiting to try it out with our next strom.
Weatherman94- July should begin to get active. The MJO pulse is forecast to increase in our basin throughout most of July.
thats a good thing
Nash28, I have noticed that as well (about the MJO)

However over the last week most of the GFS runs have shown a strong trough developing over the East Coast (mean position around 75W)

If anything tropical does form in the Atlantic it has a good chance of staying out there.

The Western Caribbean, on the other hand, is another story...
Even though I'm into GW, I do understand that some people are grumpy about it being discussed all the time. That being said, all the doctor discussed were climatological NOAA observations; there were no "doomsday scenarios" discussed or anything else.

I fail to see how this post would be "shoving" anything down your "throats".

Yeah, it was a lot warmer when Dinosaurs roamed the earth...

Temperature sensors

here is a site that show "some" temperature sensors which is used to support the Good Dr.'s point of view. Play it like a kid game and say "what is wrong with this picture".

But I too grow tired of the GW debate. I would at least feel better if we could have a scientific discussion, but that usually deteriorates into "you are an idiot!" LOL





Well, there is nothing else to watch! :D Kinda stormy in Myrtle Beach this morning. Heavy rain offshore, and showers heading this way! :) Love that rain!!
Great Blog Dr. M., Please keep us posted about the Middle Eastern Storms...Glad to hear the sea ice made a bit of a recovery (hope to see more)...Do you know if the winds have changed? I think (may be wrong) that it has been a bit more on the windy side this year in S. LA and MS....
Well, there is nothing else to watch! :D Kinda stormy in Myrtle Beach this morning. Heavy rain offshore, and showers heading this way! :) Love that rain!!


I know its hampering my work!:(

lo thels thats funny
little bit overcast here in wilmington
One issue with the NCDC reports:

Antarctica, where cooling has been observed, is never included in the data.
you are an idiot!"


thel....all discussions usually end up to that point...when you're out of refernce material....you always have the idiot card
My position on global warming has developed from my own observations, especially over the last 10 years. I was once a GW skeptic, but can't argue with the evidence of a rapid increase in glacial melting, less and less sea ice coverage in the Arctic and hotter temperatures. We are seeing much hotter summers here in Denver than ever before...100 degree temperatures were rare until the late '80s, but now can be expected almost every summer. Denver has only had about 60 occurrences of 100+ since 1872...18 of those have been since 2000 with the most recent being yesterday. Today is likely to be another 100 degree day! In the 1961-90 period, Denver typically had 30-35 days per year of 90 or above. Now it's often over 50. Some of it could be a natural cycle, but I do think man-made GW is playing its part. The U.S. always produced huge amounts of CO2, but now with the industrialization of China, India and other large nations we're just producing so much of the stuff that it really is having a noticeable effect. We're not going to stop GW anytime soon, so will have to deal with the consequences. The Earth will not be destroyed and people will adapt, but it will not be pleasant, especially in many poorer countries.
DM....you idiot.....LOLOLOL...sorry mark..i couldn't resist........i think you can't dispute gw...it's MMGW that's disputable
Thanks Ric :)
I always try to be objective and never have thought GW is all man-made. I don't think comparing today's temperatures with the mid-to-late 19th Century means that much either, because that was a notably cold period. I'm more concerned with what I've seen in the last 20 years. But we don't have data for more than about 120-130 years and there have been rapid changes in climate in the past, unbelievably long droughts in various places, etc. I just think though that we're finally producing so much CO2 that it is starting to tip the balance of nature in very recent years.
Sullivan has a good point...there is a lack of data from Antarctica, and that's a big area! This does skew the global averages somewhat. Why has Antarctica not warmed as fast (or even cooled a bit in some areas)? I'm not a climate scientist, but what makes sense is that the Southern Hemisphere has warmed less because it is mostly oceans, while the Northern Hemisphere has so much land at higher latitudes. Also the reduction of sea ice cover/albedo in the Arctic.
Nash,

I wasn't looking to start a flamewar (too hot already.. LOL).. just found it funny that what I was discussing with a friend yesterday is the topic of the day on Dr. Master's blog..

But I will toss out 2 ideas for batting around while waiting for a tropical system or a decent blob to pop up

1. How much stock ya'll put into the new UK Met Office?

2. Think their would ever be a tropical system that had the winds of a F5 Torondo (ie 261-318 mph winds)
Nash,

I wasn't looking to start a flamewar (too hot already.. LOL).. just found it funny that what I was discussing with a friend yesterday is the topic of the day on Dr. Master's blog..

But I will toss out 2 ideas for batting around while waiting for a tropical system or a decent blob to pop up

1. How much stock ya'll put into the new UK Met Office?

2. Think their would ever be a tropical system that had the winds of a F5 Torondo (ie 261-318 mph winds)
i think you can't dispute gw...it's MMGW that's disputable

I second that!
DM - Also a Denver resident and 2nd you on the notable increase in summer records being broken - three in Denver in the last 10 days. I believe it was last year that we hit 105 and tied the all-time record for Denver's highest temp. It is definitely a little disconcerting. Of course, this also follows on the worst winter I can recall in the Denver in the last 10 years...

The worst thing about GW - regardless of one's opinion - is that if it is occurring - by the time we fully recognize what's going on - it will be too late. Could it "destroy the earth"...? Depending on what that actually means - yes, quite possibly it could.
Another issue with GW theory is the 'positive feedback' issue, i.e. less ice in the arctic = more absorbtion over reflection ect.

There's dozens of other 'positive feedbacks' tied into global warming. However, there isn't much said about what ways the earth will go about cooling itself.

Obviously there has to be one of those 'tipping points' in the climate where the Earth warms to a certain point, then cooling processes become the dominate forcing mechanism in climatic process.

If this was not the case then Earth would have become unbearably hot millions of years ago when atmospheric CO2 was well over 1,000ppm.
Denvermark, other than the Antarctic peninsula, where warming has occured over the last 50 years, cooling has been occuring over much of the rest of Antarctica.

Of course those in the scientific community that push GW theory the most now say that this was expected as the circumpolar vortex over Antarctica will increase in strength, further cutting off Antarctica from the rest of the worlds' weather patterns.

I just think that it's an excuse of conveinence.
Good points...I think the Earth does have a way of compensating for man-made effects such as adding CO2 and other "greenhouse gases" to the atmosphere, and we may be in for some surprises, not all bad. On the other hand, I think that while people in general are increasingly aware that we have a problem, realistically it's going to take about another 50 years before fossil fuel use is greatly reduced. If we are tipping the balance, things may get pretty nasty.
At any rate, I'll be real interested to see what happens in the next 10-20 years. If GW slows or reverses slightly (as in the 1940-1975 period), I think that would disprove GW theory with regards to human activity adding CO2.
As George Carlin once said in regards to global warming: "The planet will be just fine, it repairs itself, it's us that are f***ed!
No matter what side that you are on, one thing is undeniable..pollution is bad, it kills us. If all the global warming people are wrong, and the trend reverses itself, what's the worst that happens, we have a cleaner planet.
True DenverMark, but then the debate will flip-flop and supporters for MMGW will argue that a cooling period is abnormal and Man is the reason for dangerous, irreversable global cooling...
Morning all! Not much goign in the tropics. Also NWS website completley crashed once again. I may need to make a blog about all of the noaa website crashes that have happened this year. It is just ridiculous that this keeps happening. I have some work I have to do day so I will be in and out.
I'd agree with that...even if GW theory is wrong, pollution is just bad, and burning dirty coal to generate power produces a lot of pollution, especially in places like China!!
Everything has an opposite reaction. A waste product if you will. From stars forming and dying to our lungs taking in oxygen and releasing co2, how can we possibly disrupt nature's way to better suit our idealology?
40. KRL
I'm split on global warming being caused primarily by us. Surely humans are an extremely negative factor in the environmental equation, but are a mere 6 Billion of us really able to have that much of an impact to completely alter the climate?

The land surface of the earth is 57.5 Million square miles. The water surface is 139.4 Million square miles for a total of approx 197 Million sqare miles of surface area alone and then multiply that by the atmosphere's volume and you're in the billions of space.

And from this NASA world population density map you can see there is really quite a bit of open space still.

earth

Mother Nature also has quite remarkable ways to keep everything in balance and obviously has done a good job since the planet is still here after billions of years and still quite habitable after everything Earth has endured in that time frame.

When you really look at the size of us to the size of the earth it's like looking down at colonies of ants. We're really not that big in relation to the whole planet and our time here since civilization, population and heavy industrialization began which is pretty much the past 150 years is not even a blip of a second in the perspective of Earth's 5 Billion year age.

So to assume in 150 years of industrial pollution we've thrashed the entire environment is at best quite a stretch of presumption.



epac stuff: 000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250330
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT SUN JUN 24 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Someone give KRL a lolly pop or a cookie or something. You said it best right there. Earth being threatened by GW is, like you say, quite a stretch of presumption, if not perfectly egotistical of man.
That brings up the whole point of MMGW being the "Politically Correct" view to have these days, with scientists who oppose it being ridiculed or not getting funding, etc. I feel the politicians are using it as the latest "crisis" to get us to accept more laws and regulations, as those in power always want more power and control over the average person. The news media sensationalize the issue, just as they have with so many others in the past. And when Hollywood jumps on the bandwagon, it's nauseating!!
Devermark. We all know global warming is happening. What most people don't get is that modern society and all of the 1st world countries in the world are the way they afre because of their economies. And what are their economies based on... Fossil fuels. Until we can produce enough electricty, which is what I see as the only truely renewable viable alternitive energy soruce, from natraul sorces instead of fossil fuels and coal, we cannot just stop using oil and gas. Even if we stopped now global warming would not stop unless you could remove hydrocarbons from the atmosphere. Fourtunatley we now know how to do that but it won't make a difference until we stop readding them.
Also i will not debate anything that has political and global warming in the same sentence. I want nothing to do with that stuff.
Texas,
You hit the nail on the head...we can't just stop using fossil fuels now. The world economy would collapse and millions (billions) of people would starve to death, plain and simple.
The problem with a good part of the community is the fact that theory is only that until it is proven without a doubt. Problem with that thinking is if GW is proven it will too late to do much about it. Will the planet carry on, Yes
will human society suffer, Yes. Excuse me, but I by insurance just in case of accident. Why not err in the side of possibility also.
Agreed, I was just mentioning the political reality, but don't wish to get into politics in general.
We need some action in the tropics LOL!!

Have a great day everyone :)
Posted By: GulfScotsman at 2:12 PM GMT on June 25, 2007.
".. true darling.. there may not be any storms... and the blogs are relatively quiet today...

but we'll always have global warming... to debate..."


And we will always have GulfScotsman to show us how silly we always are, scientific or not!! LOL

GOOD ONE, excellent, bravo Gulf. Take a bow!!LOL
Skewed data on the NCDC's temperature anomaly map??


Over here in the NY/PA/New England area the map above shows temperatures anomalies for the Month of May averaging around +3C.

Here's a list of temperature departures for climate reporting stations across the area for May.

Williamsport, PA : + 1.6C
Allentown, PA: + 1.6C
Philadelphia, PA: + 1.4C
Scranton, PA: + 0.7C
Pittsburgh, PA: + 2.1C (warmest in PA)

Buffalo, NY: + 1.2C
Rochester, NY: + 1.4C
Albany, NY: + 1.2C
Poughkeepsie, NY: + 1.4C
Binghamton, NY: + 1.4C
Syracuse, NY: + 0.8C
New York City, NY: + 1.4C
Islip, NY: + 0.8C

Hartford, CT: + 1.2C

Providence, R.I.: + 1.2C

Boston, MA: + 1.6C

Concord, NH: + 1.1C

Portland, ME: + 1.2C
Caribou, ME: - 0.7C
Bangor, ME: - 0.2C

Burlington, VT: + 0.1C
Montpelier, VT: + 0.1C



Just where are these 3C temperature departures??

Thank you devermark and hello gulf. Lots of rain in houston. Storm rainfall totals: Link
You want action... you got it

In the epac at least

Small t wave
How do we know the atmosphere was not more violent and harmful to life before our species arrived on the evolutionary timeline? Perhaps storms were stronger back then, we know volcanic activity was more active millions and millions of years ago. We have yet to experience a true Earth ice age, an event that has happened in 10% of Earth's approx. 4.6 billion year lifetime...(that's approx. 460 million years of glacial expansion and regression. We know now that Solar activity rises and falls about every 12 or so years, that's approx. 383.3 million years of intense peak solar activity Earth has seen in it's lifetime, some of those peak periods could have and probably were a lot more damaging to Earth's atmosphere than we've seen yet. Given the extimated age of the Sun and the Earth, anything is possible and to finally say one day, after 4.6+ BILLION years of orbit around our star, we come to the conclusion that less than 200 years of burning carbon is our planet's tribunal of penance?!? We might as well call this period of our existence the Atmospheric Inquisition. You build the pyre, I'll get the whale oil...

sullivanweather how about a link to your data?

And what are the baseline periods for your data? The NCDC's is 1961 to 1990. Perhaps the baselines are different?
How do we actually know that the Earth is 4.6 billion years?
MIAMI A good dose of rain and wind is on the way to South Florida this week, thanks to a tropical wave heading in from the Caribbean.

The National Weather Service forecasts showers, thunderstorms and 15-20-mph breezes will hit the area Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.


sun-sentinel.com
How do we actually know that the Earth is 4.6 billion years?

That's APPROXIMATE...and its held in belief of the USGA and NASA.

Of course the Bible says otherwise and we know all about the truth in those books...
But do we actually have proof??
Streamtracker,

All figures were taken from NWS local forecast offices located at Pittsburgh, State College, Binghamton, Buffalo, Albany, Burlington, Upton, Taunton, Gray and Caribou.

Access local climate data, then F-6 data.

* Of note, although this is considered 'peliminary' data, it is very accurate and hardly gets changed.




Looks like we have two lows heading towards the outer banks.....
But do we actually have proof??

If you mean we haven't found God's shoebox with the actual time of creation of the universe and our planet....NO.

But you don't have proof that the Earth is billions of years old.
I see them Thelmores. Yes we have proof its called the geologic time scale and everything research geolgy has done.
Miami hwo:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
923 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-260215-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
923 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH, MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE
INTERIOR. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
IS ALSO A VERY SLIM CHANCE THAT SMALL HAIL TO PEA SIZE MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER TUESDAY AND INTO
THE NEXT WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF TROPICAL WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORM WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.
$$
Let redo that

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
923 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-260215-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
923 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH, MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE
INTERIOR. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
IS ALSO A VERY SLIM CHANCE THAT SMALL HAIL TO PEA SIZE MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER TUESDAY AND INTO
THE NEXT WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF TROPICAL WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORM WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.
$$
A: what are they talking about? That wave is waaaaaaaay to south for that. B: LOL gulf!!
Yes we have proof its called the geologic time scale and everything research geolgy has done.

So we know the Earths age by the age of the rocks. So how do we know the age of the rocks?
Its called carbon dating.
texascane, it isn't carbon dating. Carbons half-life is too short to be able to measure in the billions of years
But couldn't carbon dating be altered if there is a sudden change in the Earths atmosphere like the Ice Age?
hi eveyone, didnt global warming start at the end of the last ice age? how come the highest temps on record havent been broken in the last 10 years?
Sorry not an expert on geology. Somehowy they use processes to anyalize the age of the rocks. Then they take that data in cojunction with the age of many different types of rocks taken from many different places in the world, at many different depths, and combine it with data from all kinds of other process and the ages of fossilized oraganisms and they have used it to build the geologic time scale which gives a rough estimate of when the earth was thought to have formed. Yes I suppose it would be which is why they cannot use that on everything just younger rocks whose carbon life hasn't depleted. But to think that out of all the planets in the entire galaxy maybe other galaxys too, this one formed in exactly the right place, at the right time, the right way is amazing.
From Wikipedia:

Modern geologists consider the age of the Earth to be around 4.567 billion years (4.567109 years). This age represents a compromise between the interpretations of oldest-known terrestrial minerals small crystals of zircon from the Jack Hills of Western Australia and astronomers' and planetologists' determinations of the age of the solar system based in part on radiometric age dating of meteorite material and lunar samples.

Interpretation of radiometric age dating of zircons suggests that the Earth is at least 4.404 billion years old. Comparing the mass and luminosity of the Sun to the multitudes of other stars, it appears that the solar system cannot be much older than those rocks. Ca-Al-rich inclusions (inclusions rich in calcium and aluminium) the oldest known solid constituents within meteorites which are formed within the solar system are 4.567 billion years old, giving an age for the solar system and an upper limit for the age of the Earth. It is assumed that the accretion of the Earth began soon after the formation of the Ca-Al-rich inclusions and the meteorites. Because the exact accretion time of the Earth is not yet known, and the predictions from different accretion models vary from several millions up to about 100 million years, the exact age of the Earth is difficult to determine.

Yes texascanecaster1 it is amazing that Earth just happened to be placed where it is and I'm sure I know the answer why.
Thank you savanah. Also No global warming has been going on since the earth formed as a result of volcanic eruptions and other natraul processes. That kind however can be fixed by mother nature's natural process. No, the kind that is the problem is the burning of fossils fuels in extremeley large amounts. That overloads the atmosphere and cannot be fixed by nautral process alone.
Alright this ends it right here, how do we prove how old the earth is?


We can't! Man is stuck up on himself and won't admit we cant, there will be severe inaccuracy in trying to do so.


Now even for those of Christians like me, even the Bible won't give direct evidence to how old it is.

Some people say its only 8000 years old based on the Bible.

But in Genesis it says "the earth was found formless and void thats before it goes onto say when he brought life to the planet. So when man comes into the picture, the earth is about 8000 years old, but that suggests it could be much older.


Thats the best evidence we have, all other ways of ATTEMPTING to date how old the earth is is just foolishness and prideful.


Now based on whaty I said, its all possible the earth is billions of years old.


But the problem is we really don't know, maybe we aren't supposed to know, maybe that will remain a scret to God.


Thank you wpb. Lol jp! also guys just call me texascanecaster without the 1. The 1 i put there in order to fix a logon problem it was supposed to be tcc. Thank you. also how do i email stuff to people's on blog mailboxes?
Age of the Earth Debate:

USGS

Link

Link

And sorry, whether you want to believe in God or not and whether you believe he created everything or not is between you and God, but its the truth and nothing but the truth.


A kid can hide his head from the the doctor and say hes not getting a shot, but hes still gonna get a shot cause thats the fact. Weather you believe something or not, it won't change reality. This isn't mans fantasy world.
Posted By: GulfScotsman at 3:02 PM GMT on June 25, 2007.

"...the problem with Carbon 14 dating is she is just too young... "




LOLOLOLOL
lets all chill out now and have fun, debate is over! There is nothing to debate about the age of the earth! My simple statements should help you!


Lets all go to Clearwater beach down here where I live and play some football and volley ball and and have some drinks lol, ya know, chill out!
LMAO and lol gulf! ALso we have a rough ESTIMATE we do not know for shure how old it is. That is the end of the debate.
Back to the tropics. It looks like there is an ULL about to move over the Bahamas. I expect Wednesday will be wet. Link
referring to the tropical wave that is bringing moisture to s. florida this week ---


It is NOT the wave way down by the windward islands - it is hard-to-see wimpy tropical wave coming in from just east of the Bahamas, ya dig?

TaxasCane - I believe that info might help with the confusing weather report.

There is a small tropical wave, though its not very clear or well defined.
The "Age of the Solar System" debate is older than the "Human Increased Global Warming" debate...

NASA, USGS, and other agencies compare and contrast rocks and sediment from our planet, the Moon, meteroites, and soon Mars to establish a timespan in Earth years of the age of the solar system.

Creationists will argue that the Earth, Sun, Stars, Gallaxies are all 10,000 years or less. That means the Sun formed on a Sunday and Dinosaurs popped up on Tuesday and we came around to see what was up on Thursday morning...


As you can, or should plainly understand, the Global Warming debate is a little less ridiculous. However, believeing that the Earth's atmosphere and all of the World's ice are threatened by less than 200 years of "burning things", when things have been burning well before we arrived ( Remember, on a Thursday ) is equally preposterous.
I thought that the thing in the bahamas was an sfc low under heavy shear...
They are the experts, they know what they are talking about, if you don't see what they are coming from at all, that means you lack in weather experence and knowledge, or you just didn't look hard enough.


It seems like there are always people in here that on puposely try be extreme, its as if they won't more fighting to start.


There IS a tropical wave that will be heading across Florida wednesday.

Whether you it or not now, you'll see it once it arrives! LOL
That emerging EPAC system is certainly wrapping around itself and looking pretty mighty in the WV loop WPB just linked up....
Aslo MAJOR CONVECTION int the epac. Remember barbra formed very close to the coast too and shear is low in the spot and ssts are very hot. Could become c storm for epac. We should wacth this action for now as the atlantic is dull and stormless. Lol Also ryang asnwers to your questions now on my blog.
I imagine i will jedkins. I probably didn't look hard enough I am checking now. It is comming in from the bahamas right?
I believe so, sometimes you have to rememember the air aloft is very dry further out, as the the upper ridge breaks down and the Bermuda high takes control, the tropical wave will be more noticable right as it moves over Florida.



If you watch the GFS model, you don't really see the tropical wave very well either on it untill tomorrow and most notably wednesday as it moves over Florida.
Saw it jed on gfs 850 mb vorciticity. Looks more like a trough of low pressure. Also gfs hinting and t wave with sfc low move into the lesser antillies by 168 hr. Link
I am going to leave some la nina and shear stuff on the weather forum. Also will make a new blog this afternoon I hope. Feel free to check it out.
112. Inyo
Posted By: nash28 at 12:39 PM GMT on June 25, 2007.
Well, I have a problem saying that man is responsible for destroying the planet. I mean, how vain can we get to believe that the earth cannot and will not heal itself.


exactly, it will heal itself, unfortunately for humans, it may very well include a human population crash. Then, in 100,000 years, an insignificant amount of time globally, everything will be back to normal. We'll be dead or somewhere else, probably.
113. Inyo
Also, the latest ENSO advisory is out for this week. There was a slight cooling in the ENSO area but compared to the warming of last week, pretty unimpressive. I don't see any signs that La Nina will blow up soon, I think it will remain neutral for now.
tropical waves are troughs of low pressure, they create a swath of dry air and subsidence ahead of them followed by massive amounts of moisture along it, showers and thunderstorms that develop in this are aided by convergance and energy, how much energy and convergance these waves have all dependends on how strong these are, and of course, the stronger the wave, the more shower and thunderstorm activity.


Behind the tropical wave is a rich tropical airmass that allows continuation of numerous showers and storms over landmnasses and sometimes water if there is convergance left behind as well.



Tropical waves are in a sense, the the tropics versions of fronts, and instead of a thin swath of moisture and storms ahead of it and prolonged dry air behind it like a miud lattitude front.

Tropical waves have thin swath of dry air ahead of them followed by a prolonged rich tropical airmass behind it.
WPB - when I clicked on your link...it would not load...could not see the graphic. (good morning btw:)
I know jedkins but t wwaves usually follow the itcz when they form elsewhere they are usually refered to as troughs of low pressure.
Counrty wide enhacne radar loops full res.: Link
That one loaded just fine.
Tropical Cyclone 03-B Link
Hey all. Just joined. Is there something, perhaps, happening in the GOM?
well I think it still is a t-wave, just maybe its very weak at this time and it won't start to gain steam till tomorrow
Nope obsessed. Probably won't be any storms until july perhaps not even until mid july although you never know. If you have any questions just go to my blog by clicking my name.
Remember to check my blog daily for an answer.
today looks verrrry interesting for us today. There weren't even supposed to be storms inland or on the east side of the state and strong stroms are already rapidly developing.


Looks like the very unstabile profiles are winning out over the dry today, could get VERY active on this side of the state, they may have to bump rain chances way up.


I can't be sure of this, but I will closely monitor this developing situation, because if the dry air is overcome by atmospheric instability, things could get really wild here later.

dry air aloft can actually aid in strong thunderstorms once they actually get established because the strong updrafts overpower the dry air and the dry air cuases rapid sinking of winds aloft which can mean severe downdrafts.


I hope today gets active, getting some good storms instead of dry air would be nice and unexpected.

However, severe potentional looks possibly dangerous today if things do get kicking.

They weren't originally expected to. So I'm not jumping on this just yet. I'll wait and see what the NWS has to say in their 2:00 PM discussion before I will take sides on how today will unfold.
Been away for a while. Are we still discussing the GW thing???

Man, we need a blob SOMEWHERE!!!!
I don't see any signs that La Nina will blow up soon, I think it will remain neutral for now.

Well, the data they use is a little out of date (have you looked at the dates on their graphs and stuff?) This is over the last couple weeks and through yesterday, so it is the most recent data available:



Looking at that, I would say that the recent cooling has more than made up for the warming.... if this continues, expect to see MAJOR cooling in the next few weeks, I mean like drops of several degrees in all of the Nino regions. Indeed, if you look around 150W, SSTs dropped by 1-2C between June 10 and June 24.

In addition, upper ocean heat potential has seen a big drop as well, suggesting that some very cold water is about to reach the surface, most significantly between the dateline and 150W:

Hey Jed. Wouldn't be surprised if the 2pm NWS discussion basically kept our chances still around 20%. I will give you this though.... There is PLENTY of instability and heating to spawn some hefty storms. Let's hope we can get them.
Thanks Texas. We need big rain still here in FLA.
However, believeing that the Earth's atmosphere and all of the World's ice are threatened by less than 200 years of "burning things", when things have been burning well before we arrived ( Remember, on a Thursday ) is equally preposterous.

Well it "only" took us 200 years to burn up about half of all the fossil fuels that required some 100 MILLION years create. That's 50 million years worth of CO2 released in 200 years.
Hi all

I do not know if anyone has posted this yet but the GHCC site is back up !. Now all we need is something to look at LOL
Severe Thunderstorm watch in Canada I hope that they do not get hit hard again
Welp, there's a little T-Storm crawling across South Miami...is that considered a blob? lol
Posted By: nash28 at 4:32 PM GMT on June 25, 2007.

Hey Jed. Wouldn't be surprised if the 2pm NWS discussion basically kept our chances still around 20%. I will give you this though.... There is PLENTY of instability and heating to spawn some hefty storms. Let's hope we can get them.



Ya they always are very conservative with rain chances.

LI is -8 and cape is around 4500, so instability is very high, and some real intense stotms could pop.

Esspecially with temps in the 93 to 96 degree range today, possibly warmer in some pots.
Send them to Tampa. Mother Nature has been screwing us. The east coast and Miami area has had their fair share of rain. Kick it to us Pele!
Well it "only" took us 200 years to burn up about half of all the fossil fuels that required some 100 MILLION years create. That's 50 million years worth of CO2 released in 200 years.

REally? Are you sure we've searched every square inch of the Earth yet? Those carbon organisms that have formed into our fossil fuels didn't emit more or less CO2 well beyond 100 Million years ago? How do we know?
If I could blow them up to your neck of the woods, Nash, I would...
La nina is going to be strong this year. Bad bad bad.
Hey nash were do u live?
I live on the south shore of Tampa Bay.
Wait...Tampa right?
I took this picture a few days ago in Rochester, NY

The first Picture is mine

Here is the image in just wunderground image selection(use to vote)
Link
Question....how old are the overseas limestone cliffs which tower 1000' high. They are layered due to the sedimetary process from organic remains and take tens/hundreds of thousands of years to form each layer on the ocean floor.

You would go well over 50,000 years of age after the first few layers.

The age approximation is not completed by any carbon 14 test....but by common sense.

Not to mention the continental theory....Hawaii for instance. The "hot spot" which created the chain of islands has not moved, but the land mass has. This hot spot has created many of the islands, and is still forming a new land mass just under the ocean water level...away from the last visible island. This could not have happened in the amount of time any bible scholar will use as their estimated creation timeline.



We got a real good thunderstorm here friday, Tampa had 2.96 inches of rain, I had 2.23 at my house, amazing non-stop classic Florida lightning as well.

Heck and rain chances were only 20% that day, those were some strong storms that day too, hopefully we will do it over again today. Would love to see rain before the expected rains move in wednesday.

Those storms over Lake and Orange counties are expected to weaken and crap out as they move SWWD. Hopefully, a new batch will pop this afternoon in our area. I've had just about enough of the freakin' dry air coming off the Gulf!
Good day. Not much going on. The wave at 60 west is providing cloud and occasional rain, with heavier stuff anticipated later today. Trinidad press. 1017, will see if this falls this afternoon. Seems that the combination of SAL and Shear ( those 2 babes ) are doing a job around here.
Hurrycain, I think you have it wrong. We're talking about God here. It only takes one day to make a billion trillion stars, another day to sculpt dinosaurs, another day to destroy 95% of life you created yesterday, and only one day to create man as we look today. Sarcasm never sounded so religious....
Yeah JP. Plenty of instability for y'all as well. Your seabreeze is kicking in and you're getting good pop. Our coast on the other hand is patiently waiting for a couple of slow moving boomers.
I think that we have to pass a new amendment to the constitution

Separation of Church and Meteorology
the gulf isn't producing dry air Nash, its the upper ridge, the gulf is full of warm water which is the source of deep mositure, however the high has supressed that to the ver surface keeping thunderstorm axtivity low.

Surface moisture has remained deep for a while, its the upper atmosphere that has been dry, preventing thunderstorm growth.


Todat the air is drier from a notheast flow, however, lots of storms on th east coast seabreeze will bring deep moisture and possibly strong thunderstorms to are area here later today.


The reason it is so dry today is because we don't have a flow off the gulf and the upper ridge has sunk drier air to the surface inland which has blown drier air into the bay area today.


As I said though, the dry air looks like it will be squashed as the east coast seabreeze and convection along it moves in later.

As long as the east coast seabreeze makes it across and collides with the west coast seabreeze, storms should pop around the area. Once again, dry air aloft and subsidence from the upper ridge will limit cverage.


Storms which pop will likely become quite strong though.
Yeah, I say enough GW banter.
Your right thundercloud.....how long does it take to create a thundercloud?
Heck and rain chances were only 20% that day, those were some strong storms that day too

Well yeah, the lower the chances, the bigger the storm will be; I had a zero chance on this day and I often see people joking about rain chances, for example, the NWS puts up a 100% chance of rain, which means nothing will happen and vice-versa.
I think that we have to pass a new amendment to the constitution

Separation of Church and Meteorology


That sounds like a capital idea! Thunderstorms already have the right to bear arms.

geeze our temps are slightly higher then Miami ...

90.7 F / 32 C
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 22%
Dew Point: 48 F / 9 C
Wind: 3.6 mph / 5 km/h
Wind Gust: 6.3 mph / 10 km/h
Pressure: 30.15 in / 1020.9 hPa (Steady)
Heat Index: 87 F / 31 C
Visibility: 15.0 miles / 24.1 kilometers
UV: 11 out of 16
Clouds: Few 4000 ft / 1219 m
Few 24000 ft / 7315 m
(Above Ground Level)

VFR (CYHM)
Wind Speed: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h / 0.0 m/s
Wind Dir: 222 (SW)
Ceiling: Unlimited
Posted By: hurrycain at 5:13 PM GMT on June 25, 2007.
Your right thundercloud.....how long does it take to create a thundercloud?


What do you mean
Let the parade of cold-fronts continue.

LATER IN THE WEEK A VERY
LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
AND OUR STEERING FLOW VEERS TO THE SW ONCE AGAIN SO IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR
CONVECTION BY NEXT WEEKEND.

As for the TW set to move into south florida it actually looks it will stay to our south but the northern end of it may clip us and bring some scattered activity to south florida.


Nash, you wouldn't see much GW banter if every 2 out 4 topics on Dr. M's blog weren't about record high monthly/seasonal/annual temperatures and the good old "polar ice report"...
geeze our temps are slightly higher then Miami ...

At least the humidity is not as high; it is cooler here than where you are but the heat index is higher (the heat index can actually be lower than the air temperature at low humidity levels):

Lambert-St. Louis International Airport
Lat: 38.76 Lon: -90.37 Elev: 568
Last Update on Jun 25, 11:51 am CDT
Partly Cloudy
Temperature: 86F (30C)
Humidity: 59 %
Wind Speed: Vrbl 5 MPH
Barometer: 30.10" (1018.3 mb)
Dewpoint: 70F (21C)
Heat Index: 91F (33C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Yeah MP I know. Getting a little old seeing every other topic about temp changes somewhere in Busted Whistle Manitoba or something.
Trust me, the humidity is rising in Miami. No way it can be 55% at this hour...feels more like 90+ F, 86% Humid.
thundercloud....

A bad attempt apparently to re-focus the earth's age conversation into a weather related question....which you wanted... by using your name.

Crickets are chirping as I exit stage left.
There is no religion talk in my blog just click my name
how long does it take to create a thundercloud?

Well, you average storm lasts about half an hour or so (supercell storms can last much longer because shear seperates the updraft from the downdraft, thus preventing the storm from choking its supply of warm moist air off and also allowing it to intensify a lot more), so it probably takes about 15 minutes for it to reach its peak.
Busted Whistle Manitoba or something.


ROFL! Funny Stuff. I know right? Where is all the data from deep inside the Brazilan rainforest? Is it hotter there today than 28 years ago when record keeping began?
It is getting very humid now
Its 92 with a heat index of 101 here, getting hot quick, temps headed for the mid 90's today.
Line of rain right up the center of the state, north of you jed I think.
Actually more northeast of me, I'm on the west side of the state near the coast, north pinnelas county.

What is with the 5 or so people that continuously try to get people to come to their blog but just keep on yapping on this one? If your blog is such a dandy, then you might be better off spending some time over there. At least quit talking about it so much here. If its great, people will go there and stay there. If not - no biggie, but take your popularity campaign off this main blog, please.


Yeah near brooksville? Use to live in Inverness for a short period of time. Citrus county
Hi Gatorxgrrrl !
No comment.
Hey Gator! Good to see you.
Hi BB! How are you doing? and how is your dog doing?
Hi Nash - wishing for rain? lol...it rained like you know what in Lakeland this weekend...Friday night.
Yeah Gator. Wishing very hard for a good soaker. It is blistering hot!
Now that I think of it....I lived in close to Boynton Beach for about three years, use to shop at the Boynton Beach Mall...moved 11 times in 10 years.
No good blobs to watch ...huh?
we are suppose to go up to 40 C humdex today
No real action right now in the tropics. Probably won't have much until July rolls around.
I think we ALL want rain in Florida. The never-ending beg...
She doing well in the new place, thank you for asking. How is Molly ?
The trofs of low pressure just keep coming with another significant one set to move into the southeast in the coming days.If the tropical wave stays to far south we may get another shot at rain as our steering flow veers to the sw and brings us rain across south florida.

Also i'll be getting my own copy of Hurrtrak in the next 2-3 days so iam real excited about useing that this year.Adrian
Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook puts my area (Northern Maine) in a slight risk for severe t-storms with this discussion:

...NRN NEW ENGLAND...
MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO AOA 1000 J/KG OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IN MOISTENING WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SE FROM QUEBEC. AS THIS OCCURS...MID LEVEL NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOA 50 KTS AS REGION IS GLANCED BY DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING SE TOWARD THE MARITIMES. GIVEN FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL AND NRN ME.

DEEP VEERING WIND PROFILES AND FAIRLY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 10C AT 500 MB/ SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FURTHER SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS MAY TEND TO REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE...AND COULD POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO SVR WIND AND HAIL.
Molly is WSI's dog...she is doing good though as far as I know...my dog is Cocoa. Nash's dog is Peanut...lol

Hi Aqua!
Yeah Nash - it is July that I am worried about, with the GOM already like a warm bath.
crownweather! so very good to see you here. I still visit your site and read your tropical discussions. A pleasure to have you visit us.

Adrian...I sure hope you're right. You often are.

Hi Gator!
Oops ! I didnt see your blog in the main list the other day, but I found it now that I clicked on your name..
Question for an expert or semi expert....do tornadoes occur in cooler climates?...that question is prompted by the post that crownweather just made. For some reason, I did not think so.
July will have more activity for us to keep our eyes on. The pattern hasn't locked in place yet, so it is still unclear as to whether we will have a weaker A/B High that is positioned more to the SW, or if we will see a stronger high parked further to the east like we had last year.
No problem Boynton, I was out of town this weekend, so my blog was probably missing:)
Tornadoes definately can occur in cooler climates since they have occurred in the winter; indeed, they can occur anywhere conditions are right and at any time of the year; they are also more common in the spring and fall than in the summer; on the other hand, derechos definately have a summer bias.
Here is the surface map for that day look at Kansas City then look at SE Iowa and note the temp diff that is one strong cold front!

Forgot the picture



Thanks STL...btw my older daughter is going to St. Louis this weekend to visit a friend...her first time there.
Afternoon all and good news all.Two large ulls are forming one near th troguh that is suppsoed to hit florida and another moving off the upper florida panhandle into the gulf. Shear from these systems should remain high enough to stop any development until july 3 or perhaps not as long if the systems don't persist. A 3rd maybe forming south of puearto rico.
Posted By: Gatorxgrrrl at 5:38 PM GMT on June 25, 2007.

Yeah near brooksville? Use to live in Inverness for a short period of time. Citrus county



Pinellas county is where clearwater and St. Pete are, pinellas county is a mini peninsula, with the bay on its right, and the gulf on the left.


Now Gator you know where I am LOL I live oon the north side of the county.
Bye everyone, thanks for the info...Nash talk to ya later!

Jed your not in Brooksville?
Jedkins anything we need to worry about
Why did they ban u for that?
They call it spam here on Dr. Masters blog see here:

Admin Notice When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged as Spam and ignored.
Posted By: ClearH2OFla at 5:59 PM GMT on June 25, 2007.

Jedkins anything we need to worry about


To worry about as far as what? Tropics or thunderstorms?
Why did they ban u for that?

It violates the TOS and the Admin is pretty strict about that.

PERMITTED USE. You may use the Site and the features, information, pictures and other data contained therein (collectively, the "Data") only for personal, non-commercial purposes. You may access, view and make copies of the Data in the Site for your personal, non-commercial use and will not publish or otherwise distribute the Data for any other purpose. Without limiting the foregoing, you may not utilize the Site to sell a product or service, to advertise or direct activity to other websites or for similar commercial activities without our express written consent. You may not modify, publish, transmit, display, participate in the transfer or sale, create derivative works, or in any way exploit, any of the Data, in whole or in part. Further restrictions on the use of this Site and its Data are provided in Sections 2, 6 and 9 of these Terms and in the Photo Gallery Agreement (where applicable).
Adrians site is related to tropical weather. He has a very good site with great links. Its all ok...gotta run now for real!
Yes but note they say ignore not ban the user.
Gatorxx weren't you the pyshics professor last year? Ah thanks for clarifying micheal
Adrian probably has permission. He is a regular here at WU all year round, not just during the tropical season and is one of Dr. Master's very loyal supporters.
Yes I posted the physics quiz (clarifying...I am NOT a physics professor)

I just posted the questions as a fun thing on Tuesdays so we could all learn more about science.
GOM WV loop Link
Lol patrap. Also would appreachate it if you would start doing that again gatorxxgirl. Found it fun and informative.
Also here is a still of the ulls on water vapor and the source of nash's dry air problem.

TC- I may start doing it on my blog....I don't think I should do it in Dr. Masters blog even if its science related, especially when the tropics decide to dance.
Enhacned visble loop for western atlantic. check out the epac disturbance looking like a tropical depression: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html
Got gator girl. Thank you for considering and no wouldn't be good on main blog this probably because of la nina and. Which it was el nino thoguh. We have like the worst luck. And it almost seems like someone is man manipulating the ssts as it usually takes a couple of years for an el nino to completley die and leave behind la nina.
Any Links to other TROPICAL WEATHER RELATED sites are allowed.

Anything else will get you banned..Evil Aarons Rules.
Can i change my nickname to just texascanecaster?
Just in for a minute guys,but I feel that it should be noted that June has been near normal across most of the globe,and this could be our first month in a long,long,time that is near normal globally.

Air high aloft is moist from the shortwave over the easter gulf, once the storms get going they can tap that. But what you don't see is very dry air at the mid levels over Florida, something you won't notice at ground level, or water vapor sattelite.
OK-

Are we sure that there's nothing forming in the GOM?
Nothing will form in the gulf, very unfavorable.
as it usually takes a couple of years for an el nino to completley die and leave behind la nina.

Not true at all... Historical ENSO episodes - notice how La Ninas often follow El Ninos, often a few months later. What is unusual is how fast it is going from one El Nino to the next - 2004-2005 and 2006-2007 both had El Ninos and the early 90s were practically one huge El Nino (the switch to La Nina in 1995 likely explains why the "active period" started with such a bang, when 1988 had the most intense hurricane until Wilma and 1989 was also pretty active with the most destructive hurricane until Andrew).
Are we sure that there's nothing forming in the GOM?

Nothing is going to form untill conditions become favourable
1989 was also pretty active with the most destructive hurricane until Andrew.

Which one was that, Hugo?
The setup isn't quite there as of yet for any development in the GOMEX.
June has been near normal across most of the globe

That map is SO misleading... the white areas are temperatures within 2 degrees of normal... how about a map that shows temperature departures within 0 degrees? In other words, the colored areas are well above or below normal.
weatherboykris, I doubt it...

Somehow data will be manipulated to show warming.
ok...where is the..thisisfurious dude.........man..........love your posts dude...don't think you're new here..but you tell em dude........play on!
Gatorxgrrl: Yes, tornadoes do occur way up here in northern Maine during the summer. For instance, back in July of 1994, I had a F0 tornado pass about a half a mile from my house, it took a roof off of a barn. Also in 1954, a F2 tornado carved about a 10 mile path in the Allagash Waterway about 50 miles west of us. One thing I noticed up here is that the most favorable weather setup for tornadoes is if a quasi-stationary front sets up either over us or to our north. Basically it sets up a convergence boundary. Also terrain plays a very big role in tornado genesis up here as the valleys seems to initiate a "spin" to any thunderstorms that form. It has already been documented in the Hudson Valley of New York and I have been able to find the same weather factors up here in tornado genesis.
Somehow data will be manipulated to show warming

ROTFLMBO!!!
STL,

It may sound funny, but does 1998 go from being the hottest year, to now 2005 because of a different way data is collected?

Hi crownwx, I like your site because everything is right there on the one page...all I have to do is scroll down !
And not only are most of the white areas likely warmer than normal (but less than 2 degrees Celsius above normal; well, yeah because the observed global warming is a lot less than that; that map mainly shows where the greatest extremes have occurred), look at Antarctica. I recall that some people have said that Antarctica supposedly has been cooling, but just look at the DATA and I doubt that "manipulation" is occurring, unless you believe people like Beck.
Thanks BoyntonBeach and everyone else that visits my site!! You have no idea how much I appreciate it. Like many of you, weather is a passion for me and designing these website is an outlet for this passion. So Thank You!!!
You're welcome StormW!
Here is an example of why I say that map is misleading; this is from southeastern China (which is shown as white on that map) and surrounding stations are similar:



Also, I am not surprised that the greatest temperature anomalies have shifted into the Southern Hemisphere - after all, most of the observed warming has occurred in the winter.

And as for the cold areas, like Australia, that is just a cold spell, like what the U.S. had in February; look at the average temperature for the last year:

ROTFLMBO whats that mean and obssed if you don;t know for sure heres the sattilite imagery:

Also I am new ricderr
well hi ric, sorry I got distracted actually doing my job for a few minutes. Not new, but appreciate your enthusiasm!

Cheers!

Oh yes, and I am a dudette.
The Angora Fire, believed to be caused by human activity, began Sunday and was approaching 2,500 acres -- nearly 4 square miles -- on Monday morning when it was less than 10 percent contained, said Lt. Kevin House of the El Dorado County Sheriff's Department. No injuries were reported.

As day broke, a layer of black, mushy ash lapped along boat docks in the lake raising fears the fire also could have disastrous long-term economic consequences for a community heavily dependent on the lake's recreational tourism.

The National Weather Service issued a dense smoke advisory warning people from South Lake Tahoe to Carson City about heavy ash making it difficult to see and breathe. Plans to send up airborne tankers and helicopters to drop water and retardant over the heavily wooded, parched terrain had to be scrapped because of visibility problems caused by thick smoke.

Residents were urged to stay inside as fire officials warned the afternoon wind could again turn the fire back toward the east and in the path of more than 500 homes bordering the lake.

"This is far and above the biggest disaster that has happened in this community, I don't know, probably in forever," House told reporters in an early morning briefing.

The number of firefighters battling the blaze nearly doubled, to more than 700, on Monday morning, when all that remained of entire neighborhoods in Meyers were the smoldering silhouettes of stone and concrete chimneys.

Caravans of firefighters sliced through smoke-filled mountain passes to reach the remote blaze. Dozens also took up defensive positions around South Lake Tahoe High School as flames came within a quarter mile of the 1,500-student school.

They were aided Monday by winds that had slowed to 12 mph after gusting to about 35 mph the day before. Temperatures also dipped into the 30s. But crews did not approach their goal of containing 25 percent of the fire by sunrise.

Instead, the fire spread northward, enveloping hundreds of acres of unpopulated mountainside.

"We had more favorable conditions overnight. It was a good time to be charging in there and making some progress," U.S. Forest Service spokesman Rex Norman said. "But that could change if the winds change."

Fire officials say they have two days to get the fire under control because forecasters warn that high winds and low humidity will return Wednesday.

"We have a window right now where we're really trying to aggressively attack this fire," said Daniel Berlant, a spokesman for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection in Sacramento.

Many evacuated residents huddled in disbelief as ash rained down from a night sky turned bright orange by the advancing flames. Hotels offered free stays to many evacuees and locals clinged to one bit of good news: Despite the destruction, there were still no reports of injuries.

After leaving his rented home of five years with his wife, two young children and cat, Matt Laster, a legal assistant, showed up at a recreation center Monday morning looking for clothes and a sleeping bag. His family fled the fire Sunday afternoon and Laster said they lost "all the memories," including his Star Trek collectibles and Grateful Dead albums.

"We are doing OK. I think we are going to get resettled pretty quickly," Laster said. "We were going to have to move anyway. so we were laughing now, 'Well we are pretty much packed."'

In other areas, the fire seemed to randomly skip some homes, but downed power lines, trees and debris made clear that life would not return to normal any time soon, even for those whose homes were spared.

House said there were no reports of missing persons, but "the truth is we haven't really been able to get in there and see."

One family was pulled from the area by rescue workers as they raced back to their home, said Norma Santiago, the El Dorado County Supervisor who represents the district hardest hit by the blaze.

The family's house was destroyed leaving them with only the shorts, T-shirts and hiking gear they'd taken with them.

"It's unbelievable," Santiago said.

Steve Yingling, sports editor for the Tahoe Tribune newspaper, lives near where the fire started and had little hope that his home survived. He was leaving for work Sunday afternoon when he heard the sirens.

"I looked back and saw the huge plume of smoke," he said Monday. "That's when I really started to get scared because I know the danger alert that we've had in this area. Especially this year with the mild winter that we had."

State and federal fire officials had warned of a potentially active wildfire season in the Sierra Nevada following an unusually dry winter. The annual May 1 snow survey found the Tahoe-area snowpack at just 29 percent of normal levels, the lowest since 1988.

Among the communities evacuated were the Angora Lakes Resort and hundreds of homes in Meyers. The campground at Fallen Leaf Lake also was evacuated.

"I can't stay on the phone. We just got a notice to evacuate," Gloria Hildinger of the Angora Lakes Resort said Sunday. "The smoke is getting pretty thick. It's probably two miles away, and we're hoping it won't reach here."

Fire restrictions have been in effect in Tahoe National Forest since June 11. The No. 1 cause of blazes in the area was abandoned campfires, the U.S. Forest Service said.

In Southern California, a fire burned through some 6,000 acres of brush in the hills near the town of Rosamond, about 80 miles north of Los Angeles, officials said.

At least 30 people voluntarily left their homes in the Oak Creek Canyon area, but there were no reports of damage to houses, Kern County fire engineer Michael Nicholas said.

Hundreds of firefighters battled the blaze amid single-digit humidity levels and winds of up to 30 miles per hour, fire officials said. The blaze, which began Sunday at around 8:30 a.m., was 10 to 15 percent contained, Nicholas said early Monday. Its cause is under investigation.
well hey there then dudette fur...and caster.....welcome to you...i'm not new...just an old cranky arse that enjoys....may you enjoy also
Severe Thunder Storm Warning for Putnam County, FLA capable of producing penny sized hail and 60 mph wind. And earlier today they said no rain until at least Wednesday.
Special Weather Statement

Statement as of 2:34 PM EDT on June 25, 2007

... Strong thunderstorms expected along West Coast of Florida
between 5 to 8 PM...

Numerous storms across eastern Florida should diminish in
coverage as they move into central Florida for the rest of this
afternoon. However... the activity will again increase after 5 PM
near Interstate 75 as outflow boundaries collide with the West
Coast sea breeze front.

The late afternoon and evening commute across west Florida will
likely see numerous thunderstorms with torrential rains... small
hail and winds to 45 mph. Some of the storms may produce hail the
size of a penny or larger and winds in excess of 60 mph. Stay
tuned for later statements and possible warnings.



Maybe rain for us?:)
I don't know if it got posted, fell a few pages behind.. invest 93E, residing in the the East Pacific. 20kts 1007mb


NOAA
& it is linked to loop

RAIN, RAIN, RAIN I say!!!!
I see Red Blobs..



Link
Could be an active evening across west central Florida as I thought earlier, this is now backed by the NWS lol


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
234 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

FLZ039-042-048>051-055-060>062-065-252045-
LEVY-CITRUS-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-SARASOTA-
DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...NEW PORT RICHEY...
ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...BRANDON...TAMPA...
BRADENTON...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...PORT CHARLOTTE...
PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
234 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
BETWEEN 5 TO 8 PM...

NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA SHOULD DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER 5 PM
NEAR INTERSTATE 75 AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE WITH THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT.

THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE ACROSS WEST FLORIDA WILL
LIKELY SEE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS...SMALL
HAIL AND WINDS TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL THE
SIZE OF A PENNY OR LARGER AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. STAY
TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

$$

NOAH
Taz, I cant find an article but I heard the Florida-Georgia fire was almost out. Having scorched 900 Square Miles !
This could be similar to friday night, although they have a 40% coverage in place instead of 20% so probably for for strong late evening storms at the west coast is expected to be more widespread.


These type of events can get violent sometimes, when you have full sunshine and mid 90's for highs in Florida with unstable conditions, once the humid air rolls in with the seabreezes and they clash during the evning or night, you can get massive intense thunderstorms. This isn't necessarily going to happen. But Ive seen it many times before here.

That's exactly what I wanted to hear Jed.
As long as it has rain in it:)
I think I'm in for a 'not so fun' commute home from work. Northern mid FLA to Northeast FLA.
Go figure. Seems like this is a typical time of day for storms to flare up.
TAZ~ that fire has burnt like 220 homes~ unimaginable. FL has burned alot recently but they'll go in & coat the houses with a foam to keep them from burning. Somethings may melt but it's rare to lose structures.

Alotta lightnin in FL today & it's far from over~
Lightning/2000 Summary (Monday, June 25, 2007 at 4:10:04 PM EDT)

Since midnight (970.1 mins.):
Total strokes: 24,554 (avg. 25.3/min.)
Intracloud/Intercloud: 4222 - 17.2% (avg. 4.4/min.)
+IC: 2926 - 69.3% (avg. 3.0/min.)
-IC: 1296 - 30.7% (avg. 1.3/min.)
Cloud to ground: 19,431 - 79.1% (avg. 20.0/min.)

A house got struck in Seminole county yesterday & burnt to the ground.
Anyone know about a wave heading towards florida by friday our weather guy on Channel 13 mentioned it.
Global Warming is excelerated by man? Ok, perhaps. Now how about the other 5 dramatic rises in global temperature throughout Earth's history? It took, so we think, serious volcanic episodes, astronomical collisions, underwater gas eruptions, and other REASONABLE natural events to generate a dramatically higher global temperature average than today, a difference somewhere between +22 C avg(then) to +12 C avg (now) throughout the eras.

So we're all doomed because we burn fossil fuel? Sorry, if all the fossil fuel ever could go up in a huge plume of smoke, it wouldn't cause a radical, extinction-like rise such as those in the Precambrian, Silurian, Permian-Triassic periods.

No matter how brilliant and achieving we think we are, we might be able to wipe ourselves out but we can't wipe out life and forever scar the Earth. For that, it would take an event so powerful and destructive, it has not happened to the planet EVER....yet.

Take a look at this graph:



Our burning of fossil fuels on Earth's timeline is at the very top, can you honestly sit there and tell me that is the reason for a rise in less than one degree celsius when you take a look at Global Temperature over the eons??...last time I checked, Trilobites and Dinosaurs didn't drive cars and fly airplanes.

The truth is out there, we're just blinded by our own naiveness to find it.


Precambrian Period

Silurian Period

Permian Period

Triassic Period

Jurassic Period

Storm W, Hurricane 23,
If the A/B continues to move SWWD, won't the trofs be forced further North to ride over them? Or will the trofs win out?
Wow a few years ago global warming was a myth now its a natural process. Not to mention that the earth is warming faster now than any period previous, I guess in a few years after were so far in the hole that we cant get out, we will finally hear that we COULD have fixed it.

Thanks, but ill trust the experts.


Atmospheric CO2 causes warming. Atmospheric CO2 has increased substantially during the industrial era. End of discussion.

Other periods of warming and cooling are marked by mass extinctions and biological upheavals. We cant afford to allow that to happen.
Thanks, but ill trust the experts.

Like whom?
Not to mention that the earth is warming faster now than any period previous

Did you over look the end of the Ordovician into the Silurian periods?
Like the atmospheric scientists. As opposed to overly simplistic, cereal box climatological surveys.

So you prefer overly complex, cereal box climatological opinion then.
Yeah, you are right, those USGS guys have about as much credit as a flea market vendor...

Good day all, get ready for the flare ups Wednesday if you're in Florida!
wow its hot out, its 99 right now in Ft. Myers
Also even if there have been warming periods in the past, if we can now influence the process, and we know we can, what argument do you have against action?

What difference dose it make?

Two billion will be in flood path by 2050, UNU expert warns

The number of people worldwide vulnerable to a devastating flood is expected to mushroom to 2 billion by 2050 due to climate change, deforestation, rising sea levels and population growth in flood-prone lands, a UNU expert warns
.

Cite the USGS scientist that disputes the link between industrial gases and global warming.
99 wow, thats pretty crazy
another gorgeous day at the beach...the water temps are WARM though - like swimming in bath water.
"last time I checked, Trilobites and Dinosaurs didn't drive cars and fly airplanes."

they also didn't co-exist with humans, either. so the climate conditions that were present then aren't really relevant to discussion of human ecology.
One cause of climate shange in the past was variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun; in fact, such variations are expected to result in gradual warming - but over the next 25,000 years or so, certainly not enough to have a big impact on a centuries long timescale (such cycles are usually what triggers ice ages).
The tropics have been really quiet. Is the wind shear still really high in the eastern atlantic and is this hurricane season still predicted to be high?
277. eye
there is a BIG difference about the GA/FL fires and the Tahoe one, main thing is the FL/GA, no mater how huge, it was confined to a park, few if any homes were really ever threatened....the Tahoe one started right where there are homes. I doubt putting foam would of done anything with 30mph winds.
CURIOSWEATHERGRL- It is normal for the Atlantic to be quiet. On average the first storm doesn't form until July and in fact in 2004 the first storm didn't form until July 31. The EPAC is running slightly above average. The B storm doesn't normally form until July 23. I expect to see a bellow average hurricane season for them since there is a La Nina forming.
It was actually cooler than normal here during April, May and almost certainly June as well. So I am glad we are not having a horrible long hot summer!
A very cool video :) Link
Is shear high? Yes. Is that unusual? No.

Here are some shear maps from 2005 (the first is from here - notice the title):



Here, you see Katrina in the Gulf (also recall that TD 10, which contributed to Katrina, was destroyed by shear and dry air):



What really matters is the path that storms take; because many of the storms last year recurved, they were not able to get into the Caribbean or Gulf and take advantage of the bath water there (almost all of the strongest Atlantic storms peaked in the Caribbean or Gulf, even the others peaked in the western Atlantic, such as Andrew); shear wasn't high everywhere all the time last year either; it is normal to have pockets of high shear like on the above maps, even during neutral and La Nina years.
i have a cocker spanial that i hade to take to the vet today because he was running down the stairs in my house when he triped and fell down them and every time he would stand up he would start crying so we had x-rays taken and he messed up 2 discs in his lower back so that is going to cost me 8,000 dollars but any thing to make him better.
Very good post MichaelSTL
By the way, I saved a radar image of the storm that produced that tornado (I believe it is the same storm, since it was the only one that looked capable of doing that):

the wind shear is still very high over thr MDRLink
Hey guys... I have a question ... Is the current set up of high bad for the U.S. especially if this were august or september???
Posted By: CURIOUSWEATHERGRL at 9:23 PM GMT on June 25, 2007.

The tropics have been really quiet. Is the wind shear still really high in the eastern atlantic and is this hurricane season still predicted to be high?


Here is a very good explanation of why things are slow now but may change dramatically towards the end of July...
Link
290. Inyo
extreme warming events have happened in the past. So have meteor impacts. Just beacuse meteor impacts sometimes happen naturally, does that mean we want to smash a meteor into earth? Why accentuate a natural process that could already harm us?
Sorry to hear that tampahurricane, I hope he feels better. My 8 yr old Lab lost her retinas about a month ago, meaning she is permanently blind now, no amount of money can fix it...
weird weather here in Clearwater. Like 20 mph winds bel air and 19 for those you in pinellas county
MisterPerfect,

I agree with your chart and temperatures. I do peronsally agree that there is a variability in the Earth's average temperature.

However, there is one important thing you forgot to mention in your discussion. Almost every living organism in you chart (except for the today column) is now extinct!

[Yeah, yeah, I know, the cockroach and horseshoe crab are of prehistoric origin.)

Are you at least in agreement that a rise in global temperature will cause changes to the Earth?

While I am still not sure that we are causing GW or how much we are causing, the fact is that GW appears to be happening. Either way, we (humans) will have to make some changes to adapt to it, unless we want to go the way of the dinosaur.

My philosophy, whether we are creating GW or not, we need to be prepared to make some changes.
Two sever thunder-storm warnings in 2 days..And again the local forcasters predicted a 30% chance of a thunder-storm.
upper level low interacting with a tropical wave to influence all of South Florida by Wednesday.will break heat over S.W. Fla. 98 degree official record high in Ft.Myers Monday.
Since when did this become an old earth, young earth forum?

But since they want an off topic conversation, I'm going to just throw in my Theological/Philosophical/Creationist/Star Trek/Back to the Future opinion.

The problem with Carbon 14 Dating is that it assumes causality. If time is created, who says time has to always be going forward. What if the world was created in 7 days, and then time was created backwards (or unwound backwards) to put into place the variables ("the causes") necessary for the first moment (which could be 6000 years ago). So to say the earth is 6000 years old and 4.5 billion years old can both be true. We just assume time always goes forward because of a sticky little thing called causality. If you were outside of time...it's not an issue ;) We can travel faster than light, but we would have to figure out how to deal with the lack of causality created by the paradox. And thus, I've solved all the great problems of the universe. For you see, time is unrolling backwards from a desired result instead of randomly trotting forward. "Deja Vu", "foreknowledge", "predestination", "the problem of evil", and ultimately, who lives and dies in natural disasters, ie. hurricanes (to come back to topic), all form the universe to create the desired result which is at some point in the "future". It is the future that is the creation, not just the past. ;)

And so, we can all agree that our understanding of the space-time continuum is not omniscient...therefore, the discussion on the age of earth is irrelevant, since we know that causality is irrelevant, especially when one could exist outside of time, which then a creator God would, right?

So whether or not you get struck by lightning has to do more with the future, the end result, than the past.

Whee!
I'd like to know how hurricane intensification relates to storm size? For example given two storms in equally favorable conditions is the smaller storm able to intensify more rapidly? I'm really not even sure if there is a relation but if there is could someone give me an explanation?
Here is some reports where i live.06/24/2007 0608 PM

3 miles NW of Wilbar, Wilkes County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by dept of Highways.


Several trees down on Route 16 north.




06/24/2007 0617 PM

3 miles NE of Boomer, Wilkes County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by dept of Highways.


Several trees down on Route 18 south.




06/24/2007 0630 PM

3 miles E of Elkville, Wilkes County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by dept of Highways.


Several trees donn on Route 268





06/24/2007 0625 PM

Moravian Falls, Wilkes County.

Hail e0.75 inch, reported by public.






06/24/2007 0622 PM

Millers Creek, Wilkes County.

Hail e0.75 inch, reported by amateur radio.


eye~ No where did I mention FL/GA fire. Back in 1998 Jacksonville to Orlando to the ocean pretty near all burnt in a horrific El Nio drought. At one point all of Volusia county was evacuated. DRiving I-95 afterward about everything was burnt for 120 miles, woods, trees nieghborhoods, some fences a few sheds. All that stood was the houses. They had just kept foaming them infront of the fires & clearing people out. (Some engines also carry special equipment to spray foam and chemicals on homes and other structures to help them resist fire. Foam is a bubbly water solution that makes flammable materials less likely to ignite. )A faster moving fire is actually better as long as you stay infront of it. A gas station burnt & a few homes before the foam was a standard tool in saving structures that year.
I am a salesman in Ft Myers. Today was sick hot for sure. Getting a late evening sea-breeze collision at my house in the Cape now.

Gotta love the rain!
Evening all. I have posted a new blog on la nina but everything in is stuff that you guys already know. Feel free to leave a comment.
Also what are we talking about right now?
Lol nash. Even funnier u said damNIT not dammit. Double lol!
Epac disturbance:
East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252212
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT MON JUN 25 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR ACAPULCO SOUTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




Now it gradual development i am saying epac c storm.
Wow! The NWS forecast at 2pm for Tampa Bay was a frekin' bust.
Sorry for the negative tone here, but right now the EPAC doesn't really excite me.....

Are the models calling for formation this weekend?
Nash you should see this: Link

its the gom loop. That ull moving off the coast has thunderstorms waaaaayyyy to close to the center. If a storm center was to develop over the center could become sts. Doubt it though as ulls often have shower associated with them.
Hello everyone, I hope your having a safe, and wonderful evening!

I have a question that may seem silly to some of you. I really wish that even DR. Masters could respond to this one! Is it possible that certain areas get far less rain or storms, than others? What i mean by this is, I hear thunder very often here, yet the storms go just north of me, and just south of me. Also, they are east and west of me. I live in florida, so it is all flat ground. Is there a reason for this pattern, or is it hit and miss?

Thanks for answers!!

You can stop laughing now!!:)
It's all miss Nash :( We watched a kickbutt storm coming right at us just disappear...
Not a negative tone nash totally understand your rain pains as i have my own... All the rivers here are full and there is flooding. We are getting more rain when we don't need it and you are getting less as you are on the wrong side of the ull. No wudnerground. No development at all.
Hate to say it but the trough of low pressure that was coming has died. It has been removed from sfc anylisis and sattilite overlays. Probably because a ull formed right next to it and destroyed it. Sorry nash maybe the ull will give you rain. Wish we had a ts in florida right now...
Again, sorry for being pissy. I am just having a hell of a time trying to save my yard. We can only water once a week without getting a ridiculous fine and when you see storms on the horizon that just go "poof" it can make you angry. You used to be able to set your watch by it during this time of year. 4-5pm ass kicker thunderstorms that would blanket the entire area. They were quick, but they would dump copious amounts of rain and keep us from the crapbag conditions that we are in now....
Here's another view of the wave moving towards southflorida...

Basically through early evening tommorow we are going to be on the dry side of things before it gets kinda wet around here.Tropical waves are very unpredictable and good just easily fizzle out sometime tommorow or strengthen on its way here.Adrian

wave
Me too Texas.... I can only hope our pattern will change soon. Unfortunately, you have to be careful of what you wish for.....
Where do you find the Invest stuff when an invest is named
Hey mermaid! Usually just hit and miss coincidence. It can sometimes have something to with the overall weather patterns but usally it does not. Also to all ull in gulf behaving very strangley. I am going to get northward moving severe t storms from it. And funktop loop shows some intense convection of the coast. This should be short lived but I can't help but think that that much convection is highly unsually for a ull it should be there at all....
A TS will come soon enough and give rain to places, though not sure what places. Just wait.

As for mermaidlaw's comment: this happens to me quite often, although lately I haven't been so fortunate. I have had MANY storms in the past that form along a squall line, produce occasional tornadoes in the midst of the severe thunderstorms, and it all missed me, or if it didn't, it's impact was weak and short-lived. A week and a half ago or something like that, a sea breeze made its way 60 miles inland and knocked my power out for 2 hours. Produced about 70 mph winds. I had damage in my yard. The next day, an electrical storm with 30-35 mph wind gusts and blinding rain hit me. My power almost went out, but did not.

mermarid, it's not just you. It happens to me about 70% of the time, too, even if tornadic development is expected. There will be that ONE time where it will happen, though. My guess is it may be localized fluctations in the atmosphere (e.g. dry air aloft in the lower levels of the atmosphere stopping the warm MOIST air from rising).
JP- Wish I could have witnessed it. I drove home from work and saw some very promising cumulonimbus clouds that were building vertically and becoming very dark. As I got close to the house, they basically vanished and now it is clear as a bell..
Wow this is some rebound with the anomalies across the atlantic basin!Will it continue?

interesting
Also to all. Guys i am not sure but it really seems like your trough of low pressure has fizzeled. Yes you should get ts storm as the back side of the ull is the wet side right now. However the sfc trough is gone.
Also you guys need to see this something is really messed up with this ullow in the gulf.
Link

the thunderstorms appear to be skating right over it.
I have never seen that before with a ull. Really bizarre.
Still image:
Also want to make note that on the lastest GFS model runs it has a major trof setting up and looks like its not going anywere anytime soon.Adrian
Also a new t wave has extended itself up from the antillies to a little ways behind the ull. If it doesn't get to close to the ull it should give rain to florida predicted. However the oringinal wave is gone.
Also note the second image and the wave near the left hand side of the screen. It was the strong one that came off africa a couple of days ago and it is apparently staying organized. If it holds together until reaching the carrib could be a system in early july.

T wave for flroida


atlantic t wave:

gotta guys
329. Inyo
Posted By: mermaidlaw at 11:04 PM GMT on June 25, 2007.
Hello everyone, I hope your having a safe, and wonderful evening!

I have a question that may seem silly to some of you. I really wish that even DR. Masters could respond to this one! Is it possible that certain areas get far less rain or storms, than others? What i mean by this is, I hear thunder very often here, yet the storms go just north of me, and just south of me. Also, they are east and west of me. I live in florida, so it is all flat ground. Is there a reason for this pattern, or is it hit and miss?


Certainly there are areas which get less rain than other areas. I'm not sure about Florida, but in the western US, it is not uncommon for thunderstorms to form nearly every day in August over the same prominent mountain, bringing rain every day, while nearby valley areas get little or no rain the whole month. San Francisco Peaks near Flagstaff are a very good example of this. Even though Florida doesn't have mountains, it has sea breeze convergance zones, etc.

However, there is another factor involved: every individual thunderstorm only covers say, 20 square miles, while anyone within 20 miles of hte edge of the storm can see it, meaning a few hundred square miles get 'missed' by any given storm. Again, in the southwestern US, there are thunderstorms forming almost any late summer day somewhere in sight, and often lightning at night, but a given area might only get rain once or twice (or some years not at all, if it's say, death valley). It can be agonizing on a hot summer day to watch the storms over the mountains, if you are stuck in a hot, dry interior valley
I have had MANY storms in the past that form along a squall line, produce occasional tornadoes in the midst of the severe thunderstorms, and it all missed me, or if it didn't, it's impact was weak and short-lived

That isn't so surprising because severe weather is usually highly localized and many times warnings are sent out because radar indicates that a storm possibly could be severe, not because severe weather has actually been observed. Also, when the SPC oulines a severe weather area, say 15% chance, that doesn't mean that you have a 15% chance of getting severe weather; rather, that is for a circle 50 miles in diameter (25 miles from a point) and most of the time severe events are rather localized. Of course, there are times when you know for sure that something is going to happen (for instance, when I saw the derecho that I had last summer coming and the warnings for it, I had little doubt that I would get hit bad from it and with a storm like that it is very unlikely that you won't get anything unless it actually misses you).
N Atlantic Imagery Link
Hey Nash28, I feel your pain storms everywhere up here even drove threw one got to the house bone dry go figure
I see Red Blobs..on radar



Link
Zrad droogies!

Weekly check-in complete. Hope everyone's doing well.
I'm with you Nash - where did it go? And, I LOVE this "nowcast" on my WU Local weather page ...what is a gust front?

Nowcast as of 5:07 PM EDT on June 25, 2007
Now
Numerous storms did not develop as expected when outflow boundaries collided with the West Coast sea breeze front. Expect isolated thunderstorms until night fall. Mariners near the coast should expect winds to become east and increase to 25 knots between 530 and 6 PM. Boaters may want to seek safe Harbor until the gust front moves offshore.
Heads Up Mississippi Gulf Coast ,Coastal Ala...Radar Link
Thanks to all that responed to my question! I am an OLD weather geek, and proud of it!!LOL!!:) I have seen many hurricanes and storms in my day! They still amaze me. Much has changed over the years, and I am very excited about the fact that we now can watch for these storms!! I am proud of all of you here for your opinions, your thoughts, and your great information!
what is a gust front?

A gust front is formed from the outflow from thunderstorms, often bringing high winds with it; here is a good example of a (particularly strong) gust front; of course, not all gust fronts will bring such high winds unless it is associated with a derecho.
Gust front is the leading edge of cool air rushing down and out from a thunderstorm. There are two main reasons why the air flows out of some thunderstoms so rapidly. The primary reason is the presence of relatively dry (low humidity) air in the lower atmosphere. This dry air causes some of the rain falling through it to evaporate, which cools the air. Since cool air sinks (just as warm air rises), this causes a down-rush of air that spreads out at the ground. The edge of this rapidly spreading cool pool of air is the gust front. The second reason is that the falling precipitation produces a drag on the air, forcing it downward. If the wind following the gust front is intense and damaging, the windstorm is known as a downburst.

gustfront
I was just watching Central Florida News 13 Tropical Update and my good buddy Dave Cocharella said " You might of heard about La Nina developing but that and El Nino take a long time to develop and effect weather, there is every reason to expect that Florida would have a normal hurricane season."

What is he baseing this on I may ask?
wow, thanks for the explanations, links and cool graphic of a gust front! And here I just thought it was the weather folks way of saying ...that big storm that you thought you were going to get? ...gone, gone in a gust... I had never heard that term used - certainly looks like something I wouldn't want coming my way if I'm in a little boat on the water.
crownwx at 6:27 PM GMT on June 25, 2007.

Gatorxgrrl: Yes, tornadoes do occur way up here in northern Maine during the summer. For instance, back in July of 1994, I had a F0 tornado pass about a half a mile from my house, it took a roof off of a barn. Also in 1954, a F2 tornado carved about a 10 mile path in the Allagash Waterway about 50 miles west of us. One thing I noticed up here is that the most favorable weather setup for tornadoes is if a quasi-stationary front sets up either over us or to our north. Basically it sets up a convergence boundary. Also terrain plays a very big role in tornado genesis up here as the valleys seems to initiate a "spin" to any thunderstorms that form. It has already been documented in the Hudson Valley of New York and I have been able to find the same weather factors up here in tornado genesis.


Thanks for the info Crown - hope all is well tonight for you in Maine. Went to your site...very nice and easy to read!
345. PBG00
Why is it that everyone puts so much stock in predictions? I know the science behind it all..but change is constant..and things do change so how is anyone to know what The Season will bring? Just the fact that there are conflicting opinions is enough for me to take the wait and see approach..Expect the best, be prepared for the worst. Last year turned out to be a bust because of el nino..right? Well why wasn't it predicted from the beginning?Because change is constant. Just something to ponder. Back to your regular blogging.
What is he baseing this on I may ask?

I have no idea; according to this, even if La Nina doesn't develop until the winter (like in 2005), it can still affect the season:

The most active seasons in terms of storm number numbers and percentage of named storms achieving hurricane and major hurricane status are those with a neutral with cold bias

(that means neutral with a La Nina developing, but not necessarially during the season)
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 8:19 PM EDT on June 25, 2007.

I was just watching Central Florida News 13 Tropical Update and my good buddy Dave Cocharella said " You might of heard about La Nina developing but that and El Nino take a long time to develop and effect weather, there is every reason to expect that Florida would have a normal hurricane season."

What is he baseing this on I may ask?

Well sporteguy03 for florida if these trofs of low pressure continue threw the comings months it will be hard for a system coming from the east to make across it and affect us.This has has been the general trend almost 4-5 weeks now or maybe longer.In any given year for us in florida we can easily expect 1-2 threats from a tropical system so we're just going to have to wait and see how things evolve and of course be ready no matter what the predictions call for.Adrian
PBG,
The reason I ask is he is a meteorologist and if you make a claim like that on tv you should back it up factually, he is entitled to his opinion I just wanted to know why he said that, because of what happening now? wind Shear, Ssts? etc
349. PBG00
Sportguy..my comment was not really aimed at you..just a generalization actually. I have been reading the blogs go back and forth from busy season to bust all on the different predictions coming out. I know alot of the speculation is by those less weather knowledgeable? but it just seems irresponsible to give these predictions much weight..
Adrian you are correct. But the one thing that I cannot stop harping on is that in 2004 we had the exact same pattern as we do right now through the first two months of the season. We barely had any invests until we reached August. Then, almost like a light switch, the troughs ceased... the A/B High bridged and parked well to the west of the normal position, and the rest is history.

I know it is easy to feel comfort in local mets saying the troughs keep coming, but I will NEVER forget 2004. Charley scared the hell out of me. We had to pack our entire lives in one day and leave. Thankfully, it made the hard right turn at the last minute. My point is, conditions right now do not give me any sense of hope or false belief. It only takes a shift in the pattern lasting a few weeks to make it a very bad year.
And the part he said "normal hurricane season" made me laugh, whats that suppose to mean.

Dave is an excellent forecaster though, he did come back later and said we don't expect activity in June and July out East towards Africa but we look more closely towards August. He said 2005 was an abnormal year.
Nash remember what caused Charley to make that hard right turn you guessed it a TROF an unusually late deep trof, so they can be good and bad. Depends where you are in relation to them.
353. PBG00
Kind of my point..Change is constant..we can not assume that the pattern we are in now will last the season..If the trofs stop and the high lifts and its the florida storm train all over again.If not they all recurve I am just not banking on either scenerio and will wait and watch.
2005 was absolutely horrific, but it was also special for those of us who live for the tropics. It is something you marvel at. You realize when mother nature gets pissed, she gets pissed. You get out of the way, and let her clean her house as it were.....

Fortunately, it is not likely to happen again until well past our lifetimes if you look at history.
Although there are similarities with tropic seasons based on like conditions, there are so many variables that it is unlikely we will have a repeat of 2005. Hope not, 2 canes in 10 days at my house...not fun.
Yes 03 it was a trough. My point was that troughs are not the make/break of the season. If the Caribbean begins to go ape@#%$, most of the troughs won't matter much because the system will be too far south. Troughs are great with long track Cape Verde canes that are at 15N and above moving west.
Hey there PBGOO and Nash. How is your evening going?
Oh Gator.... You got trashed in 2004. Weren't Frances and Jeannes landfall within a few miles of one another??? Crazy!
359. PBG00
Had two in three weeks here in 04(I think it was 04)That was just no fun!
Nash28 remember the quote from dr.masters...

He said that sometimes when a pattern can persists like this for weeks it sometimes can stay put for months.Overall we should all be prepard no matter what.There is no reason at all to not be prepard with all this quite time we have had.Dont wait folks for the storm to be bearing down on you.Adrian
Going great! Just took Peanut for a walk. She is happy, panting and laying on the kitchen floor.
362. PBG00
Hey gatorgirl..It was 2004 Frances and Jeanne slammed us. We had just got our power back(after 10 days) and Jeanne came and knocked it out again!
Yes that is correct...lol...2004.

It hit about 10 miles south of me, but we were on the NE side. No power for about 3 weeks in Sept...nice oven to live in!
If the Caribbean begins to go ape@#%$, most of the troughs won't matter much because the system will be too far south

Yeah, troughs don't matter if it forms in the Caribbean or Gulf:

Adrian I completely agree. If you live in hurricane alley, and you do not yet have a basic plan put together, well then.... God help you. No excuse to ignore... I do know what Dr. Masters has said. It happened last year, Having said that, I also know that it didn't get that memo in 2004 and 2005. Also, has anyone noticed the A/B High will be shifting to the SW and stretching late this week? Not good if it parked there...
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 8:51 PM EDT on June 25, 2007.

actually Adrian considering how active the West Caribbean has been in terms of convection already plus how boiling the SST's are, I am very concerned about these troughs being in place

I would rather them be gone, because lets be honest, we get hit directly from our west coast more often then our east, at least lately we have been

Thats absolutely correct jp and things could get interesting for us during the season and especially during the month of october.
Actually, it is difficult topography wise for some of those big boys and girls to hit Tampa or even Big Bend... Most of the time, they either drill areas at leat 100 miles south of W. Central FL or just split the uprights into the panhandle. But you do make a valid point JP. And Tampa is WAAAAAAYYY overdue. People here are complacent now to the point of disbelief.
Oh please Adrian, lets get thru Aug and Jul...lol...before we start talking about Oct!!
Hey JP!...yeah Nash when I was in Tampa the last time, my son took me down by the bay...wow...it was low ground. Scary to think a big one could really wipe it out. His hospital that he worked in Tampa General says it can operate with the whole first floor flooded.
371. PBG00
After frances I got all these bat operated fans and t.v.s..Then the generator..I have it down to a science now and Wilma was actually a breeze..Helped that the weather was awesome and chilly!
I just fear a New Orleans all over again due to the complacency here. I hear people who are in their 80's saying they would not evacuate even if a CAT5 came right up the gut in the Bay. I plead with them, but they bring up Camille, Donna, etc...
Tampa Bay SLOSH Model The Sea Land and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, run by NOAA's National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center
Link
374. PBG00
Hey Pat! You are always ready with the great links. Thanks
Yeah well maybe they need to have a real conversation with Patrap...he can tell them what its like to go thru Katrina.
PBG - yes we loaded up on battery operated everything...fans, tv, super duper lanterns...etc. The only thing that still is bad is the cold showers! ouch!
Nash brings up a good point. We were 40 years between Large Surge bringers here.,1965 to 05.And even those that saw the water then..thought they would gamble.One cant run from the water..if theres no roads out.
Amen Pat.
The only route then..is up. Bad way to be after the fray....
Not to change the subject but is that area by Florida spinning
One other note.... Our SOI (Sothern Oscillation Index) has risen dramatically in the last couple of weeks to +12 which indicates onset of La Nina. La Nina doesn't have to be strong to really influence our season.
382. PBG00
Gator..Where are you located? Fran and Jeanne were just so inconvenient..Frances just pounded us forever! The cold showers were hard..My youngest was 1 at the time and he was covered in a heat rash that was just aweful.It was hard to get him in the bath. We have gas but to boil all those pots and take them up the stairs was no fun!Sleeping was rough too.. I must admit I was one ill prepared person for the first one. I would have never imagined being out of power for 10 days.Thank god I did have enough food.The county was not prepared either. It was a mess.
Anyway got to get early for work but i was looking at the 18z GFS model run and it showing some intresting stuff of the african coast with possibility of our first capeverde system.

Long range and will probably change in the next run but found it interesting.Take care adrian

wave
About 5 mi N of Biloxi, wind rocking large heavy camper and thundering like the devil.
Hope this is the worst of it, they almost opened the clubhouse (storm shelter) last night also, no warnings now.
Frances was the storm that psychologically got into our heads. It NEVER ENDED! Over 20 hrs of those conditions can really wear on you.
Good evening all.
Gator, how are you? Long time.......
Vero Beach - about 10 miles on the north side of the eye for Frances and about 6 miles north side of the eye for Jeanne. Boatloads of rain from Frances, but Jeanne did the worst in wind damage.
I hope it isn't a sign of things to come Adrian. We have had a ton of very healthy strong waves already this season well before they can form, which is why they have died shortly after seperating from the ITCZ.
Pottery!!!! How are you!!
391. PBG00
How big was that eye? It seems everyone in Palm Beach and Martin was in it. I know we were cause I just waited for the reprive..When it came we walked the dogs cause it was a long haul for them. The backside wasn't that bad..not like Wilma where the 2nd half was just nasty! We lost our linai screen and the kids swing set in Frances..Jeanne finished them off for good.
nash28 at 1:08 AM GMT on June 26, 2007.

Frances was the storm that psychologically got into our heads. It NEVER ENDED! Over 20 hrs of those conditions can really wear on you


The thing that was awful for us, was deciding if we were going to stay or leave for the second one Jeanne, we just could not believe that that hurricane did the loop de loop and headed back to us. It was really a mind boggling thing. We have lots of senior citizens and they were just wore out after that season.
393. PBG00
Hello pottery..I don't believe we have met.
395. PBG00
I actually had surgery the week before Jeanne. I never thought I would be standing in Home Depot 5 days later preparing for another storm.
396. PBG00
Our neighborhood flooded big time..no one thought to clear the drains..Now we have a commitee for that.LOL
Yes we got slapped on the back end by Wilma too.
That is the sobering thought that I think about often during the season. The elderly population in Pinnelas county is staggering.
This blog sounds like "Storm Stories" LOL
400. PBG00
I just had weagle on my 5 inch battery t.v. tellin me it was gonna be a bumpy ride.
Yes, and I am your host Andy Cantore:-)
403. PBG00
Ya know nash..we have a watch group here that goes and checks before and after the storm on those that are living alone..If you have any in your neighborhood it is greatly appreciated here..
I was part of one for Frances and Jeanne.
Yea the back end was actually worse because when it moved into the Atlantic, it stalled a little bit and strengthened so those back end feeder bands were Cat1 and here I thought the worst was over! We saw water being lifted out of our pool like a scoop!
It appears to be a record high temperature June thus far in South Florida also.
Key Largo Fishing
407. PBG00
jp..we had the fire going and the beer flowing. It was actually kind of fun!
nash28 at 1:18 AM GMT on June 26, 2007.

Yes, and I am your host Andy Cantore:-)


Only with nice hair!! LOL
409. PBG00
I should have known..you're a good guy.
Evening all.
PBGOO, hang on a sec......

Gator, I'm doing well. Still in the clay ! Looking out for storms that always seem to pass me by, so I gues I'm blessed. Trust you are fantastic ?
Ok everyone. Time for me to get to bed.

Nice talking with you all. See you tomorrow.
Yes all is great:) Thank you Pottery!
Night Nash...time for me to go too...it was a pleasure chatting with my old buddies and meeting some new ones. G'nite:)
415. PBG00
Night Nash!
Adrian how do you get atlantic tropicl model runs from the ncep website instead of north america ones? Couldn't figure out where on that site to go.
See ya nash.
418. PBG00
I'm out too. Thanks for the chat everyone. Pottery, another time perhaps. Enjoy your night everyone!
listen to this!:AARON C. DAVIS, Associated Press Writer
2 hours, 40 minutes ago



MEYERS, Calif. - A wildfire raged out of control near Lake Tahoe on Monday, forcing hundreds of residents to flee towering flames that destroyed more than 200 buildings, turned the sky orange and fouled the lake's famously clear waters with falling ash.



Many hotels offered free rooms as families clung to one bit of good news: Despite the destruction, there were no reports of injuries.

"All the memories are gone," said Matt Laster, a legal assistant forced to flee his rented home of five years with his wife, two young children and cat. He showed up at a recreation center looking for clothes and a sleeping bag.

The blaze, which authorities believe was caused by some kind of human activity, had scorched almost 2,500 acres nearly 4 square miles and was about 5 percent contained. About 1,000 people had evacuated from the path of the flames, and authorities feared up to 500 other houses could be threatened in this resort area along the California-Nevada state line.

More than 700 firefighters were on hand, but plans to send up airborne tankers and helicopters to drop water and retardant over the heavily wooded, parched terrain were scrapped because of low visibility from the thick smoke.

Firefighters hoped to bring the blaze under control ahead of high winds and low humidity forecast for the middle of the week. Dozens took up defensive positions around South Lake Tahoe High School as flames came within a quarter mile of the 1,500-student school.

"We have a window right now where we're really trying to aggressively attack this fire," said Daniel Berlant, a spokesman for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection in Sacramento.

El Dorado County Sheriff's Lt. Kevin House said there were no reports of missing persons, but "the truth is we haven't really been able to get in there and see."

Along the lake's southern shore, a layer of black, mushy ash lapped along boat docks, raising fears the fire also could have disastrous long-term economic consequences for a community heavily dependent on the lake's recreational tourism.

California officials declared a state of emergency, meaning the state would cover all firefighting costs. The National Weather Service issued a dense smoke advisory warning people from South Lake Tahoe to Carson City, Nev., that heavy ash was making it difficult to see and breathe.

The fire began Sunday afternoon on a ridge separating the resort community of South Lake Tahoe from Fallen Leaf Lake, a recreation area where a U.S. Forest Service campground was evacuated.

Firefighters were aided Monday by winds that had slowed to 12 mph after gusting to about 35 mph the day before. Forecasters warned that if high winds and low humidity returned, the fire could threaten more than 500 homes bordering the lake.

By early afternoon Monday, 173 homes had been lost to flames and many others were damaged, along with dozens of outbuildings, authorities said. All that remained of entire neighborhoods in Meyers were the smoldering silhouettes of stone and concrete chimneys.

In other areas, the fire seemed to randomly skip some homes, but downed power lines, trees and debris made clear that life would not return to normal anytime soon, even for those whose homes were spared.

The burned neighborhoods were a hodgepodge of million-dollar vacation homes, cabins and modest houses strung along the east side of the ridge. At least three members of the local fire department were believed to have lost their homes.

Steve Yingling, sports editor for the Tahoe Tribune newspaper, had little hope that his house survived. He was leaving for work Sunday afternoon when he heard the sirens.

"I looked back and saw the huge plume of smoke," he said Monday. "That's when I really started to get scared because I know the danger alert that we've had in this area. Especially this year with the mild winter that we had."

State and federal fire officials had warned of a potentially active wildfire season in the Sierra Nevada following an unusually dry winter. The annual May 1 snow survey found the Tahoe-area snowpack at just 29 percent of normal levels, the lowest since 1988.

Fire restrictions have been in effect in the Tahoe National Forest since June 11. The most common cause of blazes in the area is abandoned campfires, according to the U.S. Forest Service.

Anxious residents barred from returning to the fire-damaged area jammed the lobby of Lake Tahoe Community College in South Lake Tahoe, hoping to get word from authorities on whether their homes were still standing. Some left in tears; others were thankful to have escaped the worst.

Cathy Martin of South Lake Tahoe e-mailed her son, a Marine serving in Iraq, to tell him about the fire.

"We're very lucky that we are safe," said Martin, whose home was not damaged. "But I'm telling you this is awful for this community."

In Alaska, damp, cooler weather helped slow a wildfire in a popular recreation area on the Kenai Peninsula south of Anchorage that had destroyed about 70 homes and cabins and was threatening hundreds more.

The Kenai blaze, reported on June 19, had spread across nearly 90 square miles and was only about 10 percent contained Monday, fire officials said.

___

Associated Press Writers Brendan Riley and Amanda Fehd contributed to this report.


Don't leave me here all alone guys!!!

lol just kidding have a nice night all.
This is not something that you want to get:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
716 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BUTTE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 815 PM MDT

* AT 714 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WITH DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GRAPEFRUIT SIZE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
22 MILES WEST OF BELLE FOURCHE RESERVOIR...OR ABOUT 19 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BELLE FOURCHE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BELLE FOURCHE RESERVOIR BY 750 PM MDT...

GRAPEFRUIT SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN COLONY AT 715 PM MDT.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY
BUILDING AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
whats up all
Its offical now. 93E is up for the epac. I imagine if the system can get some intense convection going tommorrow we will se td 3 and then the epac c storm.
To get to the North Atlantic page, click on the link where you see this, right above the table that has the different model runs (here is the direct link):

Select Region: [North America] [Western North Atlantic] [North Pacific] [Eastern Pacific] [Polar Ice Drift]

Michel: WTF?!?!?!?!?!
That has to be a FREAKING record. GRAPFRUITE HALE?!?!? Thats big enough for that new skylight you know someone was planning to have installed: lol not funny at all actually. That is terrible is this a current warning? Hello cone new here? Micheal are u messing around?
Many thanks micheal!
Grapefruit? 4 inch hail? That happens all the time... there was softball size hail yesterday (4.25 inches, listed as 425 on the SPC page).
And yes; that is current. Link
That would be TD 4 since Tropical Depression Three-E was early last week.
never heard of grapefruit size hail before...
This is the most incredible hail report that I have ever seen (link):

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1035 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....

0955 PM AURORA NE VOLLEYBALL SIZE HAIL
06/22/03 HAMILTON REPORTED BY STORM
SPOTTER. HOLES IN
NEIGHBORS ROOF BIG
ENOUGH TO CRAWL THROUGH
Sorry micheal is checked that is a real warning. Amazing... that is going to kill people if it actually is that big when it falls. Also velocity radar tells me that there is a meoscyclone in this thing maybe a tornado lets see if they issue a warning.
Here is a list of descriptions used by the NWS for hail (they often use penny size as well to describe 3/4 inch hail):

HAIL DIAMETER SIZE DESCRIPTION
1/4" Pea Size
1/2" Marble Size
3/4" Dime Size
7/8" Nickel Size
1" Quarter Size
1 1/4" Half Dollar Size
1 1/2" Ping Pong Ball Size
1 3/4" Golf Ball Size
2" Egg Size
2 1/2" Tennis Ball Size
2 3/4" Baseball Size
3" Teacup Size
4" Grapefruit Size
4 1/2" Softball Size
Evening convection:

Nothing happening in the tropics yet...thank goodness.
Really hayes? was out of town last week must have missed didn't become a storm though did it?
uhhh, found one bigger than a volleyball

"At least one hailstone was the size of a cantaloupe, measuring 6 1/2 inches
in diameter, said Ryan McCammon, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Hastings. That's just one-eighth of an inch smaller
than the national record holder, which was found in 1970 at Coffeyville, Kan. "
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 1:44 AM GMT on June 26, 2007.

This is the most incredible hail report that I have ever seen (link):

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1035 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....

0955 PM AURORA NE VOLLEYBALL SIZE HAIL
06/22/03 HAMILTON REPORTED BY STORM
SPOTTER. HOLES IN
NEIGHBORS ROOF BIG
ENOUGH TO CRAWL THROUGH




WTF that is diaturbing, I don't know about you, but if a halstone that big came through my roof I just might think its the beginning of worlds end!

Seriously, if I would be disturbed for a few days after that, wow, just wow...
Here are all of the reports so far of hail 4 inches or larger today (remember that the SPC puts the size in 1/100th of an inch so 400 is 4 inches):

0005 400 1 NE ROCKYPOINT CROOK WY 4491 10509 HAIL LASTED 5 TO 10 MINUTES. (UNR)
0100 425 20 NW ALADDIN CROOK WY 4484 10447 (UNR)
0115 400 COLONY CROOK WY 4487 10416 (UNR)


Also, I looked at the last 7 days worth of storm reports to see how big the largest hail was:

June 18: 1.00 inches
June 19: 4.25 inches
June 20: 4.25 inches
June 21: 4.25 inches
June 22: 2.00 inches
June 23: 1.75 inches
June 24: 4.25 inches

I don't think it is normal to have hail that big this often...
This was from about an hour ago.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
749 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2007

SDC019-260215-
/O.CON.KUNR.SV.W.0197.000000T0000Z-070626T0215Z/
BUTTE SD-
749 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL BUTTE COUNTY...

AT 748 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 17 MILES WEST OF NEWELL...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BELLE FOURCHE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
NEWELL BY 810 PM MDT...

BASEBALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF BELLE FOURCHE
AT 725 PM MDT.

LAT...LON 4497 10380 4474 10381 4470 10339 4495 10338

$$

CZEPYHA
Believe it or not, an even larger hail stone was found later:

CENTRAL PLAINS STORM PRODUCED LARGEST HAILSTONE IN U.S. HISTORY

A raging thunderstorm that pounded south-central Nebraska last month, ended up leaving a little something extra for residents and the meteorological record books. The largest hailstone ever recovered in the United States fell in Aurora on June 22, with a record 7-inch diameter and a circumference of 18.75 inches.

The National Climate Extremes Committee, which is responsible for validating national records, formally accepted the measurements last week. The committee included a small team of experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, N.C., and NOAAs National Weather Service (NWS). The NWS forecast office in Hastings, Neb., provided the measurements.

Were it not for the quick thinking of local residents, who found the hailstone and kept it from melting, we would have not known it existed, said Jay Lawrimore, who chairs the committee.

The old record for the largest hailstone had a diameter of 5.7 inches, a circumference of 17.5 inches, and was found in Coffeyville, Kan., on September 3, 1970.

Lawrimore added that the Aurora hailstone didnt break the record for the heaviest hailstone. It was hard for us to get an accurate weight for this stone because a chunk of it hit the gutter of a house and 40 percent of it was lost, he said. Also we think some of the stones mass might have melted before it was preserved in freezing conditions.

Along with Lawrimore, permanent members of the committee include: Andy Horvitz, program manager of the NWS Cooperative Weather Observer Network and Kelly Redmond, deputy director of NOAAs Western Region Climate Center.

Meteorologists from Hastings and the NWS Central Region Headquarters in Kansas City, Mo., participated in the review. Nancy Knight of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., made the measurements of the Coffeyville hailstone and was a special consultant for this review.

NOAA Satellites and Information Service operates three data centers, including the NCDC, which house global data bases in climatology, oceanography, solid earth geophysics, marine geology and geophysics, solar-terrestrial physics and paleoclimatology.

NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events, and providing environmental stewardship of the nations coastal and marine resources.
seriously, wtf is going on, thats rediculous.


Ya know, once we get out of this drought in Florida here, we will probably be stuck in floods, weather is just weird these days, never any normal weather, always one extreme of the other.

I wouldn't want to be in any structure other then a bunker if volley ball sized hail was falling, that would shread powerlines and pummel cars. That is just insane.
This shows how SSTs have responded over the last week (note that the CPC's data is not as current and thus doesn't really show the cooling):

Just noticed it was Mountain Standard time, not Central, so the hail report was only about 20 minutes ago. I would think hail that size would have to form pretty high up and would cause a lot of damage when it got to ground level.
Hastings, Nebraska Hailstone...Link
Also, I found the official NWS storm summary here; they note this as well:

Hailstones were reported to be the size of volleyballs...which was not far from the truth given the enormous impact craters left in the ground...some as large as 12 inches and over 3 inches deep on grass lawns.
I'm a Nebraska native and saw some golf ball sized hail and that was more than I cared for. I live on the Treasure Coast of Florida now, so all I have put up with are hurricanes. ;-)
The largest hail that I have ever personally experienced was about an inch in diameter; I avoided getting the worst of this storm though I remember having piles of hail in low lying areas around the yard the day after it hit. An interesting thing that occurred with hail this year was that the NWS actually recorded hail that fell on April 13 as being a trace of snow, setting a daily record, yet there was no way it could have been snow (and none was recorded in the daily climate summary, not under weather conditions)... LOL!
ya the plains are hail country as well as tornado country.


Hail isn't usually a big deal in Florida, Ive personally seen with my own eyes more tornados then hail here believe it or not LOL.

Ive only seen hail twice, but Ive seen 3 tornados in this area.
Before i leave for bed: damage film taken immeadelty fowllowing the greensburg kansas tornado earlier this year: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLXfKb06lvY&mode=related&search=
same think direct link:Link
Just a quick question before bedtime....what kind of weather reaction is going to occur (if any) when the eastward bound system meets up with the westward bound system? From sat images, it looks like the two might converge somewhere over Florida or even in the Gulf. Any thoughts????
Could be nothing lady
or it could be verey severe thunderstorms until the two meet which then would cause just rain. Good night all. Have a great night!
Wow I can't figure out how more aren't hurt by hail especially that size ... Thanks Michael :c)
Would love to get some reallllyyy good rain out of it. All this afternoon convection has been missing my area and we are bone dry....yep...gotta get a new well dug. $$ OUCH $$
On this day in weather history...
1933 -- A hailstorm swept a path of destruction 12 miles wide and 40 miles long across eastern Saskatchewan.

1938 -- 4.22" of rain drenched Warsaw, Indiana.

1994 -- Death Valley had a morning low of 102.

1995 -- At 1:35pm lightning struck the horse team of an Amish farmer near Shipshewana, Indiana. The spooked horses ran into a tree, killing the farmer. Also, a 17-year-old boy in Fort Wayne was killed when lightning struck a nearby object and jumped to him.

1998 -- Flooding at New Carlisle (Saint Joseph County Indiana), 60mph thunderstorm winds at Decatur, dime sized hail at Angola and Poe (Allen County Indiana). One inch diameter hail at Coldwater, nickel sized hail at Quincy (Branch County) and Camden (Hillsdale County).

2002 -- Phenomenal flash flooding struck Fort Wayne as thunderstorms developed and re-developed directly over the city for several hours this evening. Times Corner reported 8" of rain in three hours. Spy Run Creek rose 9 feet in 8 hours to an all-time record level of 12.3 feet. Three inches of rain fell in 90 minutes.
Evening all,

I was just looking at the SLOSH models for Tampa. A category 1 storm surge would put McGill AFB out of commission; a cat 3 would flood the downtown and the airport as well as most of that peninsula that the AFB is on . . .

That doesn't look like a good scenario.
ladyweatherbug~ should just be thundershowers. Best chance Thursday & friday. Rain chances on the rise starting tommarrow.

Today we actually got way more rain than was expected across FL. This was put out tonight by the MLB NWS

.UPDATE...MUST HAVE BEEN A PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARY TO SPARK SUCH
STRONG CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTN NORTH AND WEST OF ORLANDO...WELL
AHEAD OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. NO DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL
REPORTED BUT 2 MORE HOMES STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AND ISSUED STORM
REPORTS FOR THEM.

$$

KELLY

storm reports
across east Florida ya, only a couple isolated thunderstorm on this side of the state today.
NY/PA flooding 2006


One year ago heavy rainfall over saturated ground produced severe flooding.
I was at the Deleware River @ Barryville as it made it's historical high crest @ 28.97ft - 2 1/2 ft higher than it's previous record high crest

This flooding came on the heels of another significant flood which was more of a flash flooding event at first, but turned into main stem river flooding. One week previous to this flood over 1 foot of heavy wet snow fell on an already ripe 18" snowpack. Then two significant rainstorms proceeded to pound the area, the first bringing 2-3 inches. The next, just 24 hours later bringing 3-4 inches.

Flood of April 2005

A major catastrophe was almost the result of this flood as a large sink hole developed in the earthen dam which holds back a 9 mile long 50 ft deep reservior, which is connected downstream by 2 more reserviors. The Mongaup River runs from the spillway of the Rio reservior into the Deleware River. About 5 miles further downstream is Port Jervis, NY and Matamoras, PA. With a combined population of around 14,000.
These towns, along with a few more downstream would have been heavily damaged.
hi
its cool watching that spin off the east coast of fla its been there all day . and looks like a new blob will be enetering the caribiean soon stay tuned .
Good morning to all,
There seems to be a spin to the se of Florida and the Bahamas. The circ is probably an ULL. It is quite possible that the ull could come down to the surface. wind shear is very low 5=10 knots. This area bears watching, if convection were to persist.
Link
stoorm, I can definitely see that on your link and the pic provided by storyofthecane. There is definitely a spin in the Bahamas area. This does bear watching. It might be the tropical system expected to go over Florida in the coming days.
G'morning to the Good Dr.'s Blog.

C2, ya oughtta go step outside for a sec and look to the east. We really have a lovely cloud/skyline, looking just ENE.
THIS IS THE LATEST QUICKSCAT OT THE AREA SE OF FLORIDA


Link
The spin off the Bahammas is an ULL. The tropical wave will pass to the south of Florida and the ULL will pass over Florida.
That ULL looks like it will dip along the Straits at this rate.

Yesterday we (in Nassau) had great weather. Today it looks like the cloudiness might be more intermittent due to that ULL. Hopefully it won't be TOO rainy . . .
482. HCW
Looks like a thunderstorm or two around a weak LLC. In most cases, such systems never develop. I guess it'll be fun for you guys to watch while we wait for the real season, though


Link