WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Fourteen U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011: a new record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:12 PM GMT on November 04, 2011

It's time to add another billion-dollar weather disaster to the growing 2011 total of these costly disasters: the extraordinary early-season Northeast U.S. snowstorm of October 29, which dumped up to 32 inches of snow, brought winds gusts of 70 mph to the coast, and killed at least 22 people. Not since the infamous snow hurricane of 1804 have such prodigious amounts of October snow been recorded in New England and, to a lesser extent, in the mid-Atlantic states. Trees that had not yet lost their leaves suffered tremendous damage from the wet, heavy snow. Snapped branches and falling trees brought down numerous power lines, leaving at least 3 million people without electricity. The damage estimate in Connecticut alone is $3 billion, far more than the damage Hurricane Irene did to the state. Hundreds of thousands still remain without power a week after the storm, with full electricity not expected to be restored until Monday.


Figure 1. Wet, heavy snow from the October 29, 2011 snowstorm weighing down trees still sporting their fall leaves in Winchester, VA. Image credit: wunderphotographer MaddScientist98.

The October 29 snow storm brings the 2011 tally of U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters to fourteen, thoroughly smashing the previous record of nine such disasters, set in 2008. Between 1980 - 2010, the U.S. averaged 3.5 of these weather disasters per year. Through August, the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) estimated that ten weather disasters costing at least $1 billion had hit the U.S., at total cost of up to $45 billion. However, the October 29 snow storm brings us up to eleven billion-dollar disasters, and a new disaster analysis done by global reinsurance company AON Benfield adds three more. Flood damage from the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee in the Northeast on September 8 is now estimated at more than $1 billion, and two outbreaks of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes--one in April and one in June--now have damage estimates exceeding $1 billion. A remarkable seven severe thunderstorm/tornado outbreaks did more than $1 billion each in damage in 2011, and an eighth outbreak July 10 - 14 came close, with damages of $900 million. In total, the fourteen billion-dollar disasters killed 675 people. Tornadoes, hurricanes, and floods in these fourteen disasters killed over 600 people, putting 2011 into fourth place since 1940 for most deaths by severe storms. Only 2005, with over 1,000 deaths caused by Katrina, 1969, with over 700 hurricane and flood-related deaths, and 1972, with 676 hurricane and flood-related deaths, were deadlier years for storms, according to NOAA. The fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters of 2011 caused $53 billion in damage, putting 2011 in fifth place for most damages from billion-dollar weather disasters. The top damage years, according to NCDC in adjusted 2011 dollars, were 2005 (the year of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma), 2008 (Hurricane Ike), 1988 (Midwest drought), and 1980 (Midwest drought). With nearly two months remaining in 2011, the potential exists for more billion-dollar weather disasters this year. Our first opportunity comes Tuesday, when the NOAA Storm Prediction Center is forecasting the possibility of a severe weather outbreak centered over Arkansas and Missouri.


Video 1. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama during the April 25 - 30, 2011 Super Outbreak. This tornado outbreak was the most expensive U.S. weather-related disaster of 2011, with damages estimated at $9 billion. Fast forward to minute four to see the worst of the storm.

Here are AON Benfield's estimates of the damages and NCDC's estimates of the death tolls from 2011's fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters (a clickable version of this table with information on each disaster is available on our severe weather resource page):



Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday.

Angela Fritz is subbing for Ricky Rood this week, and has written an interesting post on the latest climate change controversy, the release of the new Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) study by skeptic Dr. Richard Muller.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Oh, how about LSU and The Saints?
AlwaysThinking, thanks for that link. It seems a good bet the death toll will continue to rise.


Also concerned about Cambodia. There is not a lot of news coverage of the flood disaster there. I have a feeling it may be almost as deadly there as in Thailand.
The Fish won their 1st game today. Finally.
Quoting FrankZapper:
Taz, how they hanging?



?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
AlwaysThinking, thanks for that link. It seems a good bet the death toll will continue to rise.


Also concerned about Cambodia. There is not a lot of news coverage of the flood disaster there. I have a feeling it may be almost as deadly there as in Thailand.


You're welcome. I agree on Cambodia too.


NOT a good time to be sailing near the Canary Islands...
active Underwater Volcano

http://www.euronews.net/2011/11/06/canary-islands -volcano-threatens-residents/
Chirp, Chirp. Chirp, chirp.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


NOT a good time to be sailing near the Canary Islands...
active Underwater Volcano


Its pretty cool looking though. New Island wants to form.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
White House: There's no sign of E.T. or UFO cover-up


Well thank god we figured that out, now can we get to the economy?
Quoting Tazmanian:



?
How r u doing, Taz... have not see u 4 a while...

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I think the Atlantic low SW of Bermuda needs to drop further south to have much of a chance of subtropical development. At least 2 degrees.

Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm to allow for Subtropical development.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Well thank god we figured that out, now can we get to the economy?
Why bother. Might as well talk about satellites from space causing earthquakes.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Why bother. The pple who really own the economy said no already. Might as well talk about satellites from space causing earthquakes.


lasers, thats my guess
Wow... it's dark already and it's only 6:15.... lol

Definitely time has changed....
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow... it's dark already and it's only 6:15.... lol

Definitely time has changed....



....Stupid clock change I say
Dark by 6 pm here,
We are at 72 West
and should be on Atlantic time.
Quoting BahaHurican:
How r u doing, Taz... have not see u 4 a while...



doing vary well
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow... it's dark already and it's only 6:15.... lol

Definitely time has changed....
I forgot to sleep in an extra hour today, I usually get outside when there is enough light to see...it's just another day!

Our swirlybob is growing its own convection now quite independent of the leading front, I see. Hmmm...another 'tweener in the making?

Looking forward to the NHC-bashing/defending wars whichever way they call it.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



....Stupid clock change I say
Dark by 6 pm here,
We are at 72 West
and should be on Atlantic time.
I don't mind so much. I really like having the light in the early mornings.... helps me get up when I'm supposed to, not when I want to.... lol
did you no that you can re move IE if you ues window 7 if you dont evere ues it
Quoting Tazmanian:
did you no that you can re move IE if you ues window 7 if you dont evere ues it

Yes.
I'll be getting up before 5 am by the clock now...
which seems strange, but I normally get up just before sun-up
anyway have a good evening way up North there in Nassau...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes.



how have you been doing looks like the season is overe
98L


up too 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE
WINDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED...THE LOW COULD GRADUALLY
ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE OR
DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS GALE AREA
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NOAA NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1...AND UNDER WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
guy, wouldn't at all surprise me to see 1-2 more storms, especially of the STS nature, between now and December. I note that MJO is supposed to be in the Indian Ocean for the next few days, but I think we r due at least one more round of upward motion over the Caribbean before the season is done. Meanwhile, we have proto-Sean apparently in the works....
Quoting Tazmanian:



how have you been doing looks like the season is overe

I'm fine, how are you?

I'm not so sure the season is over...We may see 1 more named storm.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE
WINDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED...THE LOW COULD GRADUALLY
ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE OR
DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS GALE AREA
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NOAA NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1...AND UNDER WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN

Hmmmm... chances on 98L have gone up a little bit.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow... it's dark already and it's only 6:15.... lol

Definitely time has changed....


It got dark here in CT by 5:25 pm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm fine, how are you?

I'm not so sure the season is over...We may see 1 more named storm.



am doing well
531. DFWjc
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Hi StormGoddess,
Was thinking of you last night and mentioned you in a post here. Good to see your comments. That thing lasted a full minute. I was awake, and last eve's quake was startling enough in this little corner of OK, let alone where you are. Glad you're okay. Best wishes to you and to all up there near the epicenters.
...

And the "aftershocks" continue...


There are also reports of building damage in Lincoln County. And apparently State Hwy 62 is cracked and broken. Not a big EQ by most standards but a big one for Oklahoma.


Yeah, we could feel some of those here in North Texas...
Geoff, my fave track so far is the BAMS, which brings our lovely invest into the WCar on a "reverse hurricane" track... lol... wonder if it will then backtrack, and become the first boomerang storm of the season.... lol
Quoting Cotillion:


There's a lot we don't know about fault systems. Maybe Arkansas, Texas and Oklahoma share a similar fault system given their geographical proximity so when one kicks out, others do in succession. Fault lines still haven't been fully mapped yet, especially as some go back hundreds of millions of years. Just a thought.

Virginia may be separate.

I blame big oil, keystone xl, AGW, and Climate Sceptics.
For earthquakes and occupiers.
S-k-e-p-t-i-c-s
The government of Thailand says people have to get used to living with the floods that have engulfed the country.

Water is creeping closer to the heart of Bangkok, the capital, and while people have adapted to aquatic circumstances, many are fed up.

The government says that those people already suffering from the effects will have to endure the flooding for at least two more weeks.

Al Jazeera's Wayne Hay reports from Pathum Thani.

Am hoping the Bahamas are mild this weekend for our 4-day cruise to Nassau from Port Canaveral. Taking Mom and going with friends we did the trip with 7 years ago so should be a good time doing nothing and even indulging without guilt.
539. skook
Quoting Tazmanian:
did you no that you can re move IE if you ues window 7 if you dont evere ues it



Please, try to stay on topic. We do have a yellow circle in the Atlantic.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE
WINDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED...THE LOW COULD GRADUALLY
ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE OR
DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS GALE AREA
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NOAA NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1...AND UNDER WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.
Hurricane season finally looking to get going here. Our subtropical storm should slam Wilmington on Thursday with sustained winds of 80 mph.

Look for a Mitch like monster in the Southern Carribean early next week.....followed by another major 6 days later, same region.
Quoting Chicklit:
Am hoping the Bahamas are mild this weekend for our 4-day cruise to Nassau from Port Canaveral. Taking Mom and going with friends we did the trip with 7 years ago so should be a good time doing nothing and even indulging without guilt.
Hey, Chick! Seems like every time recently I've seen u on lately u say "Too tired / long day / goodnight" before I get a chance to say howarya.... :o)

Glad to hear u are making a trip to my lovely isle... drop me a WUmail if you can; maybe we can "do lunch"!

Either way, enjoy the trip. The weather does look like it shouldn't be too bad. After all, the BAMS is a major outlier.... lol
Hi Baha, will try to look you up or at least determine where is the local Starbucks!
I hope the weather will not be too rough.
And yes, working a lot and going until exhausted so looking forward to a break!
Since the previous mapping for 6Nov_6amGMT :
28.2n68.8w has been re-evaluated&altered for Invest98L's_12amGMT_ATCF
28.4n68.7w, 28.3n68.4w, 28.0n68.6w, 27.8n68.7w
: Starting 5Nov_6amGMT and ending 7Nov_12amGMT

The 7 line-segments represent ExtraTropicalCyclone*98L's path.

Deriving the travel-speed&heading from the straightline connecting the ATCF coordinates
spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT:
Invest98L's travel-speed was 2.5mph(4k/h) on a heading of 204degrees(SSW)

Copy&paste isj, bda, 33.0n73.8w-31.2n72.5w, 31.2n72.5w-29.8n71.1w, 29.8n71.1w-28.7n69.8w, 28.7n69.8w-28.4n68.7w, 28.4n68.7w-28.3n68.4w, 28.3n68.4w-28.0n68.6w, 28.0n68.6w-27.8n68.7w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

* Since 98L's travel-speed is 4k/h, and its MaximumSustainedWinds is ~74.1k/h(40knots),
98L's spin is ~70.1k.h(46mph)

Quoting Tazmanian:





sure i will POOF you go

Taz...be nice...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Taz...be nice...



am being nic lol
Really seems unfair that the only way central TX can get rain is along with a severe wx threat.... [sigh]
hmm!
Quoting Grothar:
hmm!

mmh!?
Hi Grothar! Missed ya.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning. I was looking at that when I got up. We actually got about 5 minutes of rain from those skimpy clouds this morning.... lol



We had rain today later in the day as well. I went in the large swells on the northern shore, and now i'm completely exhausted. Going tomorrow as well ;)
Hi Grothar, 'plus'ed for checkin' up on us.

534 iceagecoming "I blame big oil, keystone xl, AGW, and Climate Sceptics.
For earthquakes and occupiers.

535 Patrap "S-k-e-p-t-i-c-s"

Then again, he coulda meant 'septics'.
Quoting Grothar:
hmm!


GROTHAR!
I ate a toad whole today
Quoting weatherbro:
I ate a toad whole today


That's probably why you have a throg in your throat. Just don't croak.
Quoting Grothar:
hmm!


Who let the old man out??? Just kidding, good to see you Grothar.
Quoting weatherbro:
I ate a toad whole today

Yeah...Ummm....we really....don't care about that.

lol.
Quoting weatherbro:
I ate a toad whole today


I heard the legs are more tastier.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I heard the legs are more tastier.


Heard they're better served raw than cooked too.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Heard they're better served raw than cooked too.


I've heard I'm never gonna find out.
It's nasty either way.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Heard they're better served raw than cooked too.


My mistake...read to quickly...thought he wrote toad hole.
Its a slow day when I can read all of today's TWO's from 2 to 7 on a single 200 comment page. During Irene we went through one of those in half an hour. Busy I've ever seen it on here was during Irene.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I heard the legs are more tastier.


That should read "more tasty" or "tastier". Double superlative. I expected more from you, Geoff.
Quoting Grothar:


That should read "more tasty" or "tastier". Double superlative. I expected more from you, Geoff.


Must be the time change....you Twit.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Its a slow day when I can read all of today's TWO's from 2 to 7 on a single 200 comment page. During Irene we went through one of those in half an hour. Busy I've ever seen it on here was during Irene.

Wait until Isaac of next year.
as usaul the low will go out to sea
I did it, finally. I finished my little documental of Hurricane Earl when it brushed Puerto Rico in 2010.

for those here at the moment, I hope you like it. Tomorrow I will share it again.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wait until Isaac of next year.


Isaac is such an extravagant name.
Quoting RukusBoondocks:
as usaul the low will go out to sea


Of course it will. It's November.
572.

My only complaint is that I wasn't there to witness it.
549 TampaSpin "[Tropopause Theta map]"

What the heck are the units attached to the numbers of Tropopause Theta? millibars?
atmospheric-pressure itself? or the amount of decrease from 1000millibars ("sea level") ?
Quoting KoritheMan:
572.

My only complaint is that I wasn't there to witness it.



LOL...let me tell you, it feels awesome !!!
-----
Quoting WeatherfanPR:



LOL...let me tell you, it feels awesome !!!


I bet. :/

I suppose I did have Lee, but it certainly wasn't what I'd call "exciting" by any stretch of the word. Let me put it this way: I could have slept through it.
Quoting aspectre:
549 TampaSpin "[Tropopause Theta map]"

What the heck are the units attached to the numbers of Tropopause Theta? millibars?
atmospheric-pressure itself? or the amount of decrease from 1000millibars ("sea level") ?


Well, Theta-E is just the temperature that results when a parcel of air is fully released of latent heat, and then lowered adiabatically to 1000 mb. I'd imagine that, generally, the higher numbers (red) indicate greater Theta-E values, while the lower numbers (blue) obviously indicate lower values.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:




Yes, we are who we are, but you are allowed only one more grammatical error until the end of the year.

What do you think of 98L? Wrapping a little moisture around it now.


Quoting KoritheMan:


I bet. :/

I suppose I did have Lee, but it certainly wasn't what I'd call "exciting" by any stretch of the word. Let me put it this way: I could have slept through it.



yea, I understand you. Lee was a minimum Tropical Storm when it moved inland. Earl was a Cat.4 passing close to Puerto Rico.
Mine moves Grother.

Quoting aspectre:
Hi Grothar, 'plus'ed for checkin' up on us.

534 iceagecoming "I blame big oil, keystone xl, AGW, and Climate Sceptics.
For earthquakes and occupiers.

535 Patrap "S-k-e-p-t-i-c-s"

Then again, he coulda meant 'septics'.


That's what we call you guys septic tanks/Yanks.
Quoting WoodyFL:
Mine moves Grother.



I wish Rod Serling was still around.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I wish Rod Serling was still around.


Yes, he had many dimensions.
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, he had many dimensions.


That may be true but, he did not have the 5th dimension.

The 5th Dimension
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


That may be true but, he did not have the 5th dimension.

The 5th Dimension


Only someone as old as you would have gotten that reference. :)
Hey spectre, if you are still on, don't make such a ghost of yourself. Come out and post something. Even a booring graph would be welcome at this point.
Quoting Grothar:


Only someone as old as you would have gotten that reference. :)


;-)
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I did it, finally. I finished my little documental of Hurricane Earl when it brushed Puerto Rico in 2010.

for those here at the moment, I hope you like it. Tomorrow I will share it again.





Action:
Quote
| Ignore User


Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1354




Very nice job ...
Quoting AussieStorm:


That's what we call you guys septic tanks/Yanks.


And to think, we always speak highly of our cousins Down Under. We just think you talk funny is all.:)
Quoting WoodyFL:
Mine moves Grother.



So does mine, Woody. Occasionally.
Quoting Grothar:


So does mine, Woody. Occasionally.


I know I am going to get in trouble, if I dood it. But, I dood anyway! ..... Perhaps you are doing it the wrong way?

Link
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:



thanks again !!!
Looking grim in Bangkok. Monsoon has killed over 500. Bangkok subway is threatened.
Quoting Skyepony:
Feds try to prevent War of the Worlds-style panic over national emergency alert


I had heard about this. With our luck, someone will stage an attack during this advertised test. ;-)
According to the weather wire both the farmer's almanac & the squirrels agree...DOOM for the NE this winter..
586 AussieStorm "That's what we call you guys, septic tanks/Yanks."

Lord love a duck. Nice to finally hear somebody admit that they'd be up to their eyeballs without US.

"We have a very unusual, very powerful system developing that could produce a few tornadoes, damaging winds and some large hail," National Weather Service meteorologist Hector Guerrero told the Abilene Reporter-News. "It's very strange for us to be talking about tornadoes this late in the year."
Continuing earthquakes and possibly tornadoes : Oklahoma, not OK

Also unwell is the American media when a British tabloid provides better overall coverage.
Nice current quicktime of the sun flares & some comets or something hurtling through space.

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I had heard about this. With our luck, someone will stage an attack during this advertised test. ;-)


You behave now:)
598 Skyepony "Feds try to prevent War of the Worlds-style panic over national emergency alert.
Nov 9th 'Don't panic, people.'
"

Curses! How'd they figure out that "the giant asteroid" is the FirstWave of our InvasionFleet?
I've never seen such lighthearted off topic banter on this blog in MONTHS. For a moment I forgot what blog I was on.
Quoting Grothar:


And to think, we always speak highly of our cousins Down Under. We just think you talk funny is all.:)

we think you also speak funny. Hey, we call the English whingin poms.
Quoting aspectre:
586 AussieStorm "That's what we call you guys septic tanks/Yanks."

Lord love a duck. Nice to finally hear somebody admit that they'd be up to their eyeballs without US.

It's a term of endearment. We call redheads, bluey.

Currently in Sydney......

CODE ORANGE ALERT !!!!!!!!
607 AussieStorm "It's a term of endearment. We call redheads, bluey."

Figured that. Ya also call Vegemite, edible.

BTW Skyepony, you may have hit target with your speculation that...

...the "smoke plume" on the weather radar could have been WindTurbine-induced clutter.
Quoting AussieStorm:

we think you also speak funny. Hey, we call the English whingin poms.


Ah, but the whinging is left to you guys these days, particularly with the Ashes where it belongs. ;)

That said, your comment got me thinking. We don't tend to call the Americans anything specifically, no nickname. 'Yank' or 'Yankee' has gone somewhat out of fashion. Still hear it now and then, but usually from older generations. Even you guys, 'Aussie' is about the only thing we use and that's only due to being too lazy to say Australians at times.

Kiwis for the New Zealanders is still used (as pretty much everyone does). We don't use anything specifically for the Canadians, either.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION ARB03-2011
8:30 AM IST November 7 2011
=================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Depression ARB03-2011 over southeast Arabian Sea moved west northwestwards during past 15 hours and lies over central parts of south and adjoining central Arabian sea near 11.5N 63.5E, or about 1250 km west-southwest of Mangalore (India), 1050 km east-southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 1200 km southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression and move initially west northwestwards and then northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 48 hrs.

Satellite imagery indicates gradual increase in convection and organization. The Dvorak intensity is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea between 10.0N to 18.0N and 56.0N to 64.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -86C

3 minute sustained wind near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 4 with amplitude more than 1. As per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase during next 2-3 days and then move to phase 5 and 6. While phase 4 is favorable, phase 5 and 6 are not favorable for cyclogenis and intensification over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 28-30C. The ocean heat content is less (60-80 kj/cm2). The relative vorticity at 850 hPA level and upper level divergence have increased during past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate (10-20 knots). There is negative (5-10 knots) 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs along 16.0N.
Why do I feel like I just tuned in to "Commonwealth Chat"....

Quoting BahaHurican:
Why do I feel like I just tuned in to "Commonwealth Chat"....



The Bahamas is part of the Commonwealth, no? ;)

--

Current picture of the only area of interest:

Quoting Cotillion:


Ah, but the whinging is left to you guys these days, particularly with the Ashes where it belongs. ;)

That said, your comment got me thinking. We don't tend to call the Americans anything specifically, no nickname. 'Yank' or 'Yankee' has gone somewhat out of fashion. Still hear it now and then, but usually from older generations. Even you guys, 'Aussie' is about the only thing we use and that's only due to being too lazy to say Australians at times.

Kiwis for the New Zealanders is still used (as pretty much everyone does). We don't use anything specifically for the Canadians, either.


We have to let you win the Ashes every now and then mate!

Currently about 200km's north of Sydney. Severe Thunderstorms affecting Newcastle.

98L, to become STS Sean?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
98L, to become STS Sean?



Yep its on its way maybe even today....wonder why WU has nothing up on it......other sites do?
Pulled out the Holiday LOOK for the Website....:)
Quoting Skyepony:
Feds try to prevent War of the Worlds-style panic over national emergency alert


Nov 9th "Don't panic, people."
no but i heard they put a bug in the flu shot (like matrix) to keep an eye on people
Up to 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER AN AREA
EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND THE LOW COULD ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY AND NORTHWESTWARD
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS GALE AREA CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1...AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



Quoting TampaSpin:



Yep its on its way maybe even today....wonder why WU has nothing up on it......other sites do?


Most likely not on WU due to classified as extratropical in ATCF.
Quoting aspectre:
549 TampaSpin "[Tropopause Theta map]"

What the heck are the units attached to the numbers of Tropopause Theta? millibars?
atmospheric-pressure itself? or the amount of decrease from 1000millibars ("sea level") ?


The units attached are temperature units in Kelvin.
Invest 98L looks well on its way to Subtropical classification, may become S.T.S. Sean by tomorrow.

98L really getting organized.
Quoting Cotillion:


The Bahamas is part of the Commonwealth, no? ;)

--

Current picture of the only area of interest:

Yep, we are.... lol That's why it felt so.... familiar.... lol

I see potential Sean is up to 40% this a.m. . .. what do you bet we eventually get a TS out of this.... yet another in this 3-1 game of TS to H....

Later, everybody.
Quoting Ameister12:

"A SMALL SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT AREA HAS BEEN
ADDED FROM NEAR CLINTON OK SWD TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS
TX."
Quoting Skyepony:
Nice current quicktime of the sun flares & some comets or something hurtling through space.

I believe the comet like objects you are referring to are charged particles hitting the light detector on the satellite.
Quoting Skyepony:
Nice current quicktime of the sun flares & some comets or something hurtling through space.



You behave now:)


thats like always there just charged particles