WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Four invests in the Atlantic; fair weather in Arctic to drive rapid sea ice loss

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:38 PM GMT on August 12, 2011

It's a busy day in the tropical Atlantic, with the National Hurricane Center tracking four areas of interest (Invests.) None of these systems is a danger to any land areas over the next three days. The disturbance of most concern is the one farthest from land, a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa two days ago. This wave, (Invest 93L), is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving westward at 15 - 20 mph. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has lost some of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, and the system is poorly organized, though there is a good deal of spin to the system. There is dry air to its north that is interfering with development. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing high wind shear in excess 20 knots affecting 93L, which has undoubtedly contributed to the storm's loss of organization. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite photo of the four Invests in the Atlantic today.

Forecast for 93L
High wind shear above 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path through Saturday afternoon, followed by a drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the succeeding four days. This should allow the storm to organize over the weekend. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Given 93L's recent struggles, I'd put these odds at 30%.

92L
An African wave midway between the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, near 18°N 45°W, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, (Invest 92L), is being given a 40% chance of development by NHC. Recent visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but no signs of a surface circulation. A Windsat pass from 8:04 am EDT this morning also showed no surface circulation, and noted top winds of around 35 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 27 - 27.5°C, which is a degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.

Forecast for 92L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should make the storm miss the Lesser Antilles by a comfortable margin. However, Bermuda may be at risk from 92L next week.

94L
A broad low pressure system about 700 miles northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and may be a threat to become a tropical depression early next week. This system, (Invest 94L), is currently headed west-southwest at 10 mph, but is expected to turn northwest later today. Recent visible satellite loops show some spin to the cloud pattern at middle levels of the atmosphere, but no signs of a surface circulation. This system is also battling dry air, which is keeping the its heavy thunderstorms relatively meager. The SHIPS model is showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 94L. Sea surface temperatures are 28°C.

Forecast for 94L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 94L's path over the coming five days, which should allow slow development, if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. None of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show no development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L.

95L
The final invest out there is an area of disturbed weather along on old frontal boundary several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina. This sytem, Invest 95L, is headed northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas.



Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent on August 11, 2011, was the 2nd lowest on record for the date. The Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage (southern route) were both ice-free. Image credit: UIUC Cryosphere Today.

Arctic sea ice poised to undergo record decline in mid-August
A strong high pressure system with a central pressure of 1035 mb has developed over the Arctic north of Alaska, and will bring clear skies and warm southerly winds to northeast Siberia and the Arctic during the coming week, accelerating Arctic sea ice loss. Widespread areas of northeastern Siberia are expected to see air temperatures 4 - 12°C (7 - 22°F) above average during the coming week, and the clockwise flow of air around the high pressure system centered north of Alaska will pump this warm air into the Arctic. Arctic sea ice extent, currently slightly higher than the record low values set in 2007, should fall to to its lowest extent for the date by the third week of August as the clear skies and warm southerly winds melt ice and push it away from the coast of Siberia. This weather pattern, known as the Arctic Dipole, was also responsible for the record sea ice loss in 2007, but was stronger that year. The weather conditions that led to the 2007 record were quite extreme--one 2008 study led by Jennifer Kay of the National Center for Atmospheric Research showed that 2007's combination of high pressure and sunny skies in the Arctic occur, on average, only once every 10 - 20 years. The 2011 summer weather pattern in the Arctic has not been nearly as extreme as in 2007, but the total sea ice volume has declined significantly since 2007, leading to much loss of old, thick, multi-year ice, making it easier to set a new low extent record with less extreme weather conditions. The GFS model is predicting that the Arctic Dipole will weaken by 8 - 15 days from now, with cloudier weather and weaker high pressure over the Arctic. This should slow down the rate of Arctic sea ice loss to very near the record low values observed in 2007. It remains to be seen if 2011 Arctic sea ice extent will surpass the all-time low set in September 2007; it will be close, and will depend on the weather conditions of late August and early September, which are not predictable at this time. It is already possible to sail completely around the North Pole in ice-free waters through the Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage, according to sea ice maps maintained by the UIUC Cryosphere Today website. This marks the fourth consecutive year--and the fourth time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497. This year, the Northeast Passage along the north coast of Russia melted free several weeks earlier than its previous record early opening.

Next post
I'll have a new post by 1pm Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Sea Ice Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Franklin, you look like a big fat puffball.
1502. 900MB
Quoting tropicfreak:
92L seems to have a decent spin.


I have faith in 92L! It has spin, convection (be it off center East), and it is in 29 degree + waters. Just have no idea where it's going. NHC says W/NW, but I don't see how this doesn't pull a quick exit stage right eventually.
1503. aquak9
Pookie- if it comes your way, just send it up this'aways when you're done. But if it heads towards Texas- they can keep every drop.

Nice pic, Nea.
Possible invest 96L?:

94L (center) and 92L (lower right):
Quoting HurricanePookie:


Does this mean you don't think 93L will develop? I agree it's looking a bit weak at the moment, but my understanding (admittedly limited) is that it'll get some more favorable conditions tomorrow, should it survive.


93L has been the one that every expert was worried that this would become our first big hurricane. Looking at the visible this morning there is basically nothing left (hence the lowering to 10%). This is a very weird year so far. 7 storms, no hurricanes.
1507. 900MB
Quoting 900MB:


I have faith in 92L! It has spin, convection (be it off center East), and it is in 29 degree + waters. Just have no idea where it's going. NHC says W/NW, but I don't see how this doesn't pull a quick exit stage right eventually.


Ha, first post all year and I get my invests confused! Change that comment to 94L dang it. That's where I am putting my chips, 94L. Arrgghh!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Franklin, you look like a big fat puffball.


...Franklin the storm
or
Franklin the forecaster?
Morning Aqua and all friends,I love me some dunkin donuts original blend whole bean ground up strong with milk and lotsa sugar.Watching the tropics this morning from the DelMarVa peninsula:)
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


...Franklin the storm
or
Franklin the forecaster?

lmao
also notice a possible new disturbance north of Puerto Rico !!! The NAM model agrees !!!
nothing to worry about in the tropical atlantic looks like texas is getting alittle
1513. txjac
Quoting islander101010:
nothing to worry about in the tropical atlantic looks like texas is getting alittle


Been watching that in Texas and praying that it will come my way ...that would totally make my weekend!
Quoting FLdewey:


Of equal importance 26 years ago the engagement of Maria Shriver and Arnold Schwarzenagger was announced. :-p


in ought 4, little Hurricane Charley strutted his stuff 10 miles from my house and whacked the doggy doo outta Punta Gorda and Pine Island where there roofs were lying in the street and I drove over them in my 4x4 while onlookers on looked and whistled and pooped their pants. Trees blown across entire roads had to be moved by giant loaders so that emergency crews and police could go back there and do their stuff. I called in the route to the FEMA folks (on the emergency repeater from my 2 meter ham radio using a blisterering 50 watts ERP) and they were grateful and I waved at them when they came in. They didn't wave back. They wanted me to see how many pillows there was in the homeless shelter. I didn't need lights and siren for that. Dang it.
Then the 2 worst things about the aftermath:

No A/C and fisticuffs in the gas lines 30 miles east (Lehigh Acres)

Such memories.

But Katrina done went and took the cake for claiming August 13 so Charley will have to take a back seat to Kstrina because of the folks who hollered loudest and made the most trouble. (but not for me, Charley was my first CAT 4 that I rode out)

I may be on ignore for most of you (too avante garde for this blog, cutting edge still cuts) but I'm still here making the most of it and enjoying Neo.
Quoting txjac:


Been watching that in Texas and praying that it will come my way ...that would totally make my weekend!

Where are you, txjac? This storm looks pretty all-inclusive, making blueberry french toast to celebrate.
1516. txjac
Quoting redwagon:

Where are you, txjac? This storm looks pretty all-inclusive, making blueberry french toast to celebrate.



I'm on the west side of Houston ...if you're close to me I'm on my way for the french toast!
1517. FLdewey
Quoting KanKunKid:


in ought 4, little Hurricane Charley strutted his stuff 10 miles from my house and whacked the doggy doo outta Punta Gorda and Pine Island where there roofs were lying in the street and I drove over them in my 4x4 while onlookers on looked and whistled and pooped their pants. Trees blown across entire roads had to be moved by giant loaders so that emergency crews and police could go back there and do their stuff. I called in the route to the FEMA folks (on the emergency repeater from my 2 meter ham radio using a blisterering 50 watts ERP) and they were grateful and I waved at them when they came in. They didn't wave back. They wanted me to see how many pillows there was in the homeless shelter. I didn't need lights and siren for that. Dang it.
Then the 2 worst things about the aftermath:

No A/C and fisticuffs in the gas lines 30 miles east (Lehigh Acres)

Such memories.

But Katrina done went and took the cake for claiming August 13 so Charley will have to take a back seat to Kstrina because of the folks who hollered loudest and made the most trouble. (but not for me, Charley was my first CAT 4 that I rode out)

I may be on ignore for most of you (too avante garde for this blog, cutting edge still cuts) but I'm still here making the most of it and enjoying Neo.


I remember Charley... no power for 22 days that year. Good times. I made some nice cash as a fly by night tree trimmer while my company was out of commission for a few weeks. Double dippin is the way to go for sure. Hindsight being 20/20 never give a computer nerd a chainsaw.

I don't think people have you on ignore, they just aren't used to reading posts as long as yours. They're used to the standard one liners dished out such as "Looking good on satellite" and then post an image. Of course some don't even post text anymore... they just models over and over and over and over. (They don't change every 30 minutes)

I digress...

Charley was good fun, but the cold showers got old. Blue tarps and generators for the win!
Good morning! Franklin's formation marks the us being 2 days ahead of 2008 for our named storm.. though Franklin will not become a hurricane. 93L continues to look sick, and will not develop until it reaches the Caribbean. The GFS and CMC both show 93L developing as it trucks into the Caribbean, which means over the next 5 days we'll be watching 93L closely. I suspect the earliest window of opportunity for development is Thursday.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Good morning! Franklin's formation marks the us being 2 days ahead of 2008 for our named storm.. though Franklin will not become a hurricane. 93L continues to look sick, and will not develop until it reaches the Caribbean. The GFS and CMC both show 93L developing as it trucks into the Caribbean, which means over the next 5 days we'll be watching 93L closely. I suspect the earliest window of opportunity for development is Thursday.

Wow, this season keeps barfing out tropical storms.
Quoting txjac:



I'm on the west side of Houston ...if you're close to me I'm on my way for the french toast!

DFW broke the squall line up, but the storm otherwise is holding it's strength. Only 150 more miles to get to Austin.
1521. txjac
Quoting redwagon:

DFW broke the squall line up, but the storm otherwise is holding it's strength. Only 150 more miles to get to Austin.



Hopefully it holds together and we get rain ...I cant believe how excited I am just for rain and clouds ...hopefully thunder too ...love thunder
1505 WeatherNerdPR "94L (center) and 92L (lower left)" [photo]

92 is lower right. 93L is off screen to the right.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Wow, this season keeps barfing out tropical storms.


3/6 of our named storms came from trough splits, those almost always go out to sea and very rarely become Hurricanes. Arlene, Don, and Emily all effected land however.. that should tell you something. Also, 2002 didn't see its first hurricane until the 'G' name AND they had to wait until September. The fact that we're already on our 6th storm is impressive as it is, and I suspect like 2002 and 2010 we'll be cranking out hurricanes very soon. In 2010 Alex was the offset, and we had to wait until late August for another hurricane.
1524. txjac
KanKunKid, would never have you on ignore ..love your sense of humor!
1525. SLU
033

WHXX01 KWBC 131301

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1301 UTC SAT AUG 13 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANKLIN (AL062011) 20110813 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110813 1200 110814 0000 110814 1200 110815 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 38.6N 58.9W 39.9N 55.6W 40.6N 51.6W 40.6N 47.8W

BAMD 38.6N 58.9W 40.8N 53.0W 41.8N 45.5W 42.0N 38.2W

BAMM 38.6N 58.9W 40.2N 54.2W 40.8N 48.5W 40.3N 43.1W

LBAR 38.6N 58.9W 40.8N 53.8W 42.9N 47.6W 44.2N 40.5W

SHIP 40KTS 49KTS 54KTS 55KTS

DSHP 40KTS 49KTS 54KTS 55KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200 110818 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 39.9N 44.9W 38.1N 42.2W 36.4N 42.4W 36.2N 42.8W

BAMD 42.2N 32.7W 44.4N 22.0W 47.7N 8.1W 52.9N 3.9E

BAMM 39.2N 39.6W 37.6N 36.3W 36.3N 35.9W 36.5N 37.0W

LBAR 45.3N 33.2W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 53KTS 40KTS 19KTS 0KTS

DSHP 53KTS 40KTS 19KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 38.6N LONCUR = 58.9W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 36.2N LONM12 = 62.6W DIRM12 = 58DEG SPDM12 = 18KT

LATM24 = 34.7N LONM24 = 66.7W

WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





375

WHXX01 KWBC 131304

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1304 UTC SAT AUG 13 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110813 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110813 1200 110814 0000 110814 1200 110815 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 27.1N 59.4W 28.1N 61.0W 29.1N 62.4W 30.5N 63.4W

BAMD 27.1N 59.4W 27.6N 60.8W 28.2N 62.1W 28.9N 63.4W

BAMM 27.1N 59.4W 27.9N 60.9W 28.6N 62.2W 29.7N 63.4W

LBAR 27.1N 59.4W 28.4N 60.7W 29.6N 61.7W 31.2N 62.2W

SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS

DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110815 1200 110816 1200 110817 1200 110818 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 32.5N 63.7W 38.2N 59.9W 42.3N 50.8W 45.4N 40.5W

BAMD 30.1N 64.7W 35.3N 66.4W 42.6N 62.2W 48.6N 40.1W

BAMM 31.2N 64.3W 37.0N 63.3W 43.3N 55.3W 48.6N 37.7W

LBAR 32.7N 61.9W 36.6N 58.8W 40.2N 52.7W 42.5N 41.4W

SHIP 41KTS 51KTS 55KTS 52KTS

DSHP 41KTS 51KTS 55KTS 52KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 27.1N LONCUR = 59.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT

LATM12 = 25.8N LONM12 = 57.2W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 11KT

LATM24 = 25.0N LONM24 = 55.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

1526. SLU
FRANKLIN now up to 45mph.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


93L has been the one that every expert was worried that this would become our first big hurricane. Looking at the visible this morning there is basically nothing left (hence the lowering to 10%). This is a very weird year so far. 7 storms, no hurricanes.


Development is not expected until the Caribbean, 10% makes sense at this time.
1528. Patrap
Quoting SLU:
FRANKLIN now up to 45mph.
So,fishes take care/
1530. Patrap
Last year I disagreed with a lot of the downcasters at the begining of the season, granted a lot didn't know WTH they were talking about but as the season progressed they ended up being the right forecasters. I have done the same this year, disagreeing with most downcasters. It seems as this season is the same. All storms struggle to develope or OTS. The downcasters are winning the forecast fight at the moment, I wonder if they will be right for the rest of the season? Hmmmmm.....
Quoting aspectre:
1505 WeatherNerdPR "94L (center) and 92L (lower left)" [photo]

92 is lower right. 93L is off screen to the right.

XD Sorry, lol Fixed it.
Come on down, storms! Central Texas welcomes you :) You can do it..
Quoting CybrTeddy:


3/6 of our named storms came from trough splits, those almost always go out to sea and very rarely become Hurricanes. Arlene, Don, and Emily all effected land however.. that should tell you something. Also, 2002 didn't see its first hurricane until the 'G' name AND they had to wait until September. The fact that we're already on our 6th storm is impressive as it is, and I suspect like 2002 and 2010 we'll be cranking out hurricanes very soon. In 2010 Alex was the offset, and we had to wait until late August for another hurricane.

Well, that explains it.
Quoting muddertracker:
Come on down, storms! Central Texas welcomes you :) You can do it..


Does your forecast also say 0% chance of rain with a sunny 103o high?
Quoting redwagon:

Where are you, txjac? This storm looks pretty all-inclusive, making blueberry french toast to celebrate.

How do ya make french toast? How hot does the fire have to be and how long does a french-man take to cook?
Quoting redwagon:


Does your forecast also say 0% chance of rain with a sunny 103o high?

LOL! Let me check...nope...103 with 10%...hahaha 10%
Quoting johnbluedog69:
Morning Aqua and all friends,I love me some dunkin donuts original blend whole bean ground up strong with milk and lotsa sugar.Watching the tropics this morning from the DelMarVa peninsula:)

I've just had half a block of chocolate, a handful of gummy bears and now having a soothing cuppa tea.

Currently
53.8°F heading for a low of 46°F.
Could be worse, could be in New Zealand going by this.

New Zealand braces for an intense winter storm.

A powerful winter storm that is barreling towards New Zealand will bring a gale force and bitterly cold southwest change that will drop snowfalls to sea-level.

A low is sitting just to the north of the country, but as it continues its track to the east it will send the first round of cold air in today. Showers and brisk southwest winds will spread into the south and snow levels will drop to around 300 metres tonight.

The low will intensify to the southeast of New Zealand over the next few days, dragging a polar airmass far north. Sunday through Tuesday is when the coldest of this wintry blast will engulf the country.

Snow will fall to near sea level in eastern and southern parts of the South Island and to low levels across the North Island. The gale force winds combined with heavy snow could create blizzard conditions over parts of the south.

This unusually cold polar blast will cause travel headaches as snow falls in areas that are not prone to the wintry weather. Major centres that are likely to be affected by the low level snow include, Dunedin, Christchurch and Wellington.

The wintry blast will batter New Zealand until Wednesday, before conditions finally ease.

- Weatherzone
Wave train went bye bye just as fast as it came.
Quoting txjac:
KanKunKid, would never have you on ignore ..love your sense of humor!


Same for me.....have always enjoyed his sharp wit , and he certainly comes across with an honest common sense syle :)
Quoting mcluvincane:
Wave train went bye bye just as fast as it came.


I don't think so going by this.

Quoting mcluvincane:
Wave train went bye bye just as fast as it came.


Yup...exit..stage right..
1544. P451
Franklin out to sea and of no consequence except for the seasonal storm totals.

The rest is either held in check or on life support as a result of way too much dry air and shear.


Static WV Image:

Quoting SLU:
FRANKLIN now up to 45mph.
where do you see that ? NHC still has at 40...
Told you guys these things weren't coming to Florida! lol
INITIATE MERGE ALARM!
1548. Patrap
1549. SLU
Quoting hunkerdown:
where do you see that ? NHC still has at 40...


From the 12z satellite classification.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
94L (center) and 92L (lower right):
What is that in the lower right?
1552. Patrap
Not much left of any of those pumpers that had the thread in a Tizzy.

Itsa gonna be nuther 7-9 days before the Atlantic spits out one to worry bout.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
What is that in the lower right?

92L...
Quoting clwstmchasr:


93L has been the one that every expert was worried that this would become our first big hurricane. Looking at the visible this morning there is basically nothing left (hence the lowering to 10%). This is a very weird year so far. 7 storms, no hurricanes.


I could of told you from the start it doesn't look promising to become the first big hurricane lol.

You never know though, it looks lame now, but you can't count it out completely. Every Tropical Cyclone has humble beginnings!

I wouldn't be surprised if not much comes about from it though. If it does develop into a strong hurricane, its gonna have tendency to want to curve north out to sea anyway, the trough is just to strong.
invest 92L HAD no center to it
C'mon high BREAK DOWN! Lol



Monitoring possible gulf system in the Tropics...

Posted: Aug 13, 2011 6:49 AM CDT
By Patrick Vaughn

A tropical wave around Latitude 12N...Longitude 34W will be monitored closely over the coming week. While there are three other systems in the Tropical Atlantic, it appears that they will not make it to the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). The fourth system has a decent chance to do so. It appears weak at this time, but there are signs, from model forecasts, that it will develop. This forecast is based upon the reliable European Model. The wave is expected to move into the Eastern Caribbean Monday Night, August 16th. The pivotal day will be a week later on Monday Night August 22nd. From there, it becomes murky on where the storm will head. It appears there are two possible tracks it could take. During this time, blocking upper-level high pressure will be over Texas and over the Bahamas. The storm may turn north and move in-between the two highs towards Mobile to the Florida Panhandle in a weakness. The second possible path will be to just continue moving west, cross the Yucatan and slide under the Texas High and make a final landfall in Mexico. Should the high over Texas weaken then things will become interesting. At this point, though it looks like Southeast Texas is in good shape, but we will closely monitor model trends over the coming week.


Morning everyone, hard to believe it's been 7 years since Charley made landfall here:

Quoting Jedkins01:


I could of told you from the start it doesn't look promising to become the first big hurricane lol.

You never know though, it looks lame now, but you can't count it out completely. Every Tropical Cyclone has humble beginnings!

I wouldn't be surprised if not much comes about from it though. If it does develop into a strong hurricane, its gonna have tendency to want to curve north out to sea anyway, the trough is just to strong.



Remember that troughs aren't as strong in the summer. This isn't October, it's August.
Quoting prcane4you:
So,fishes take care/


I have friends with shipping and fishing interests in this area....may they take care too.
Good morning folks

Notwithstanding the all that is going on in the Atl. things are relatively quiet, as strange as that may sound. We have several features active at one time but none that are doing much that is impressive.This is not entirely surprising given that vertical instability in the Atlantic is below normal for this time of year as are the odds of tropical storm formation. This is shown in the images posted below.

It may take a few days for this to swing the other way
and in the case of 93L probably not until it is very close to the islands near 55W which is a known sweet spot for weak systems.

vertical instability



Climatology for TS formation probability



Anomaly for TS formation



TS formation probability, real time

Quoting gulfbreeze:
What is that in the lower right?

You need an eye exam..... He already said it was in the lower right when he posted the image.
Quoting txjac:



Hopefully it holds together and we get rain ...I cant believe how excited I am just for rain and clouds ...hopefully thunder too ...love thunder
Austin does not have a chance of rain today, High Pressure moving East from West Texas today is suppose to dominate? We shall see, highs the next 7 to 10 days 105 to 107, darn high pressure system. Rain may get within 100 miles of Austin though if not closer.
Good morning kman, how are things in your area?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

92L...

That's the WU symbol and web address. lol
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Austin does not have a chance of rain today, High Pressure moving East from West Texas today is suppose to dominate? We shall see, highs the next 7 to 10 days 105 to 107, darn high pressure system. Rain may get within 100 miles of Austin though if not closer.

If that storm can make it another 100 miles, we should have enough moisture across a widespread area to encourage the 4pm convective tstorms, further destabilizing the high for at least a few days.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Good morning kman, how are things in your area?


Good morning. Hot and sunny. The daily shower of rain.
Pretty much routine for now, and let's hope it stays that way although this could be a potentially dangerous year for the Caribbean.

Right now the Atlantic is fairly stable aloft which is acting to inhibit TS formation but that is unlikely to last for much longer.
Hi everyone...I see we finally have rain in Texas!


1569. emcf30
Quoting prcane4you:
How many fish storms this year? All of them.


There has only been 1 fish storm so far this year not counting what Franklin will end up doing.
On the 7th anniversary...

Remembering Hurricane Charley: http://bit.ly/nsPFSf
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning. Hot and sunny. The daily shower of rain.
Pretty much routine for now, and let's hope it stays that way although this could be a potentially dangerous year for the Caribbean.

Right now the Atlantic is fairly stable aloft which is acting to inhibit TS formation but that is unlikely to last for much longer.


I agree, here's the latest MJO forecast from the Ensemble GFS. We'll be seeing upward motion entering our basin pretty good soon, that will cause less sinking dry air around 93L to lift and we'll see gradual organization in the Caribbean if it attempts to develop into a tropical cyclone. But you are right, in terms of a threat to land, things are pretty quiet and should remain so the next 48 hours.
Hesitant about even posting this, scared I'll run it away :P


Quoting AtHomeInTX:
C'mon high BREAK DOWN! Lol



Monitoring possible gulf system in the Tropics...

Posted: Aug 13, 2011 6:49 AM CDT
By Patrick Vaughn

A tropical wave around Latitude 12N...Longitude 34W will be monitored closely over the coming week. While there are three other systems in the Tropical Atlantic, it appears that they will not make it to the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). The fourth system has a decent chance to do so. It appears weak at this time, but there are signs, from model forecasts, that it will develop. This forecast is based upon the reliable European Model. The wave is expected to move into the Eastern Caribbean Monday Night, August 16th. The pivotal day will be a week later on Monday Night August 22nd. From there, it becomes murky on where the storm will head. It appears there are two possible tracks it could take. During this time, blocking upper-level high pressure will be over Texas and over the Bahamas. The storm may turn north and move in-between the two highs towards Mobile to the Florida Panhandle in a weakness. The second possible path will be to just continue moving west, cross the Yucatan and slide under the Texas High and make a final landfall in Mexico. Should the high over Texas weaken then things will become interesting. At this point, though it looks like Southeast Texas is in good shape, but we will closely monitor model trends over the coming week.


The upper-level high left southeast Arizona last night and is centered east of El Paso this morning. It's return towards Central Texas will be marked by no rain chances after today along with continued triple-digit heat. Details can be found on your YNN 8 Day Forecast.
Quoting AussieStorm:

That's the WU symbol and web address. lol

lol So?
Quoting emcf30:


There has only been 1 fish storm so far this year not counting what Franklin will end up doing.

Correct, Cindy has been the only non land affecting storm so far.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


I agree, here's the latest MJO forecast from the Ensemble GFS. We'll be seeing upward motion entering our basin pretty good soon, that will cause less sinking dry air around 93L to lift and we'll see gradual organization in the Caribbean if it attempts to develop into a tropical cyclone. But you are right, in terms of a threat to land, things are pretty quiet and should remain so the next 48 hours.


The MJO is very close and it is forecast to hang around for quite some time. We could see a two to three week period of heightened activity starting in a couple of days.
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi everyone...I see we finally have rain in Texas!




Rain in Dallas! Not Houston, unfortunately.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

lol So?

Sorry, was trying to be humorous.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Told you guys these things weren't coming to Florida! lol
do they ever really come to our area???,macdill has the sheilds up!!
I have to be somewhere in half an hour so must sign off now but will drop in later to see what's going on.

BFN
Quoting AussieStorm:

Sorry, was trying to be humorous.

lol
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
The upper-level high left southeast Arizona last night and is centered east of El Paso this morning. It's return towards Central Texas will be marked by no rain chances after today along with continued triple-digit heat. Details can be found on your YNN 8 Day Forecast.


Yeah, yeah, I know. I still want it to break down. Lol. So I'm day dreaming. But it could happen. One day. Maybe. :)
Quoting charlottefl:
Morning everyone, hard to believe it's been 7 years since Charley made landfall here:



True that brotha. I was in SE Cape Coral and it was a wild couple of hours.
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=carib _height

Caribbean wave forecast. Uses GFS.
1586. gtodude
Quoting charlottefl:
Morning everyone, hard to believe it's been 7 years since Charley made landfall here:



Yes it is amazing to think that 7 years ago was a really horrible time for a lot of us here in Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte as well as other places too. It's amazing to see Punta Gorda standing tall after what had happened. The rebuild of Charlotte County as a whole has been one of great leaps and bounds. In fact, IMHO, downtown Punta Gorda is much better now than prior to Charley.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah, yeah, I know. I still want it to break down. Lol. So I'm day dreaming. But it could happen. One day. Maybe. :)
I am thinking end of August or early Sept. but I have been hearing this for like 6 months now. :)
1588. ncstorm




Quoting GPackwood:


Rain in Dallas! Not Houston, unfortunately.


All I have to do is book a flight that goes thru Houston in the PM and I can guarantee I will have a weather delay! Anybody want to pay for my trip to Vegas? I will go thru Houston on my way there and back just for you! Actually, I could always go to NOLA via Houston on Continental (if I was desperate.) Guaranteed rain.

Seriously, I empathize and sympathize with you people. S FL is still in a drought but at least we have been getting rain. I remember the year FL was burning (was it around 2000?), though, and it was NO FUN!
Quoting charlottefl:
Morning everyone, hard to believe it's been 7 years since Charley made landfall here:

And it happened on a Friday the 13th, you guys were unlucky, folks in Tampa Bay got lucky!
Quoting charlottefl:
Morning everyone, hard to believe it's been 7 years since Charley made landfall here:

Please don't remind me, you're making me feel so old.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
On the 7th anniversary...

Remembering Hurricane Charley: http://bit.ly/nsPFSf








Quoting stillwaiting:
do they ever really come to our area???,macdill has the sheilds up!!
sorry to say, but I believe our luck will run out soon enough.
1594. yoboi
Quoting jasoniswildman20x1:
fish storm and out to sea


where is it going
Quoting charlottefl:
Morning everyone, hard to believe it's been 7 years since Charley made landfall here:



That image is wild. I live in northwestern Sarasota county only 30 mins from where the eye of Charley made landfall and the highest winds we had didn't even top 30mph
1596. ncstorm
Quoting GTcooliebai:
And it happened on a Friday the 13th, you guys were unlucky, folks in Tampa Bay got lucky!


my son was in Tampa at the time when Charley was supposed to hit and they had closed the airports down..they were predicting it to be very bad in Tampa if Charley had come through there..I hate it for the folks that did get Charley but at the same time, I think it would have been much worse if it came in at Tampa..
1597. Patrap
Size matters greatly in a Hurricane...always,,
Quoting Vincent4989:
INITIATE MERGE ALARM!
The one prediction I made about 94L yesterday, was that it would slow down and wait for 92L. That's what I would of expected, based upon past observations of two systems about to merge.

Further, I believe they'll both annihilate one another, and move westward as a giant wave into the GOM.

From there is beyond my ability to guess.

Our first Fujiwara of the season?
Quoting ncstorm:






Models have been really consistent in taking it towards Bermuda, they may need to watch this..
Quoting Patrap:
Size matters greatly in a Hurricane...always,,
LOL best laugh of the day so far.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I am thinking end of August or early Sept. but I have been hearing this for like 6 months now. :)

The Llano river watershed is what we need to get this rain, even if it doesn't make it to Austin (suicide by Hill Country). Large squall lines like this tend to 'trip' when falling into the hills, dump their H20 load, then dissipate. This watershed is the quickest route to putting water into the Highland Lakes.
1602. ncstorm


Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I am thinking end of August or early Sept. but I have been hearing this for like 6 months now. :)


Lol. Yeah. You may be right though. September is when Texas gets most of its landfalls. So maybe that's a sign it will break down. :)
Quoting ncstorm:


my son was in Tampa at the time when Charley was supposed to hit and they had closed the airports down..they were predicting it to be very bad in Tampa if Charley had come through there..I hate it for the folks that did get Charley but at the same time, I think it would have been much worse if it came in at Tampa..
It had the makings of another Andrew if that would've happened. Most of the area around Tampa is either at or below sea level, so storm surge would be the worst part of the storm for us.
1605. ncstorm
Quoting tropicfreak:


Models have been really consistent in taking it towards Bermuda, they may need to watch this..

yes I agree..it seems storms have ramped up near Bermuda this season..
Invest 98E seems to be getting it's act together nicely. Seems like it could be a threat later on to the Hawaiian islands if it develops.





1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1075 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
It had the makings of another Andrew if that would've happened. Most of the area around Tampa is either at or below sea level, so storm surge would be the worst part of the storm for us.


Don't forget all the GLASS downtown!
1608. ncstorm
Quoting GTcooliebai:
It had the makings of another Andrew if that would've happened. Most of the area around Tampa is either at or below sea level, so storm surge would be the worst part of the storm for us.


Yes, his grandmother was reinforcing her home with as many sand bags as she could..it was stressed that everyone do this because they knew the flooding was going to be terrible..
37.3n61.2w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Franklin's_12pmGMT_ATCF
37.4n60.8w, 38.6n58.9w are now the most recent positions

Starting at 12August_12pmGMT and ending at 13August_12mGMT

The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection

TropicalStormFranklin's travel-speed was 22.2mph(35.7k/h) on a heading of 50.8degrees(NE)
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Franklin was headed toward passage over Gortaforia,Ireland ~4days14hours from now

Copy&paste 34.7n66.7w, 35.5n64.7w-36.2n62.6w, 36.2n62.6w-37.4n60.8w, 37.4n60.8w-38.6n58.9w, kir, 37.4n60.8w-52.03n10.1w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 13August_6pmGMT)
The 12pmATCF on 93L is absurdly late, possibly even stopped. So...

19.5n50.0w has been re-evaluated&altered for 92L's_12pmGMT_ATCF
19.3n50.5w, 19.5n53.2w are now the most recent positions

25.4n56.1w, 25.7n57.1w, 26.4n58.4w have been re-evaluated&altered for 94L's_12pmGMT_ATCF
25.4n56.2w, 25.8n57.2w, 26.4n58.3w, 27.1n59.4w are now the most recent positions

Starting at 12August_12pmGMT and ending at 13August_12pmGMT

The westernmost grouping of red dots represents 94L's path,
and the easternmost grouping represents 92L's path.

Copy&paste 25.0n55.4w, 25.4n56.2w, 25.8n57.2w, 26.4n58.3w, 27.1n59.4w, bda, 17.8n45.1w, 18.6n46.9w, 19.1n48.7w, 19.3n50.5w, 19.5n53.2w, bgi, pls into the GreatCircleMapper to make your own map to tinker with.

The previous mapping (for 13August_6amGMT)

1612. ncstorm
The NE/Midatlantic is looking at some type of storm up there next week
day 5 Seas level Pressures and Fronts

Day6

Day7
another Frontal boundary off the east coast and 93L affecting the Islands
something is trying to develop near 23n and 63w and moving wsw !!!
1614. rod2635
Water vapor loop still showing a lot of dry air out there between the Antilles and CV. Current crop of invests may end up being sacrificial moisture lambs to allow the next series a reasonable chance of development.
1615. msphar
98E will never make it to Hawaii. the water is too cold out there.
weatherfan, what and where. can you post a map
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
something is trying to develop near 23n and 63w and moving wsw !!!


I see it too.

Quoting msphar:
98E will never make it to Hawaii. the water is too cold out there.


They are warm enough.


...FRANKLIN STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BUT REMAINS NO THREAT TO LAND...
11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 13
Location: 39.0°N 57.9°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: ENE at 22 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Possible Low developing ?

Link


1621. msphar
don't count on it, its a graveyard for storms
Eww, 94L is naked...
Quoting Klolly23:


That image is wild. I live in northwestern Sarasota county only 30 mins from where the eye of Charley made landfall and the highest winds we had didn't even top 30mph
i can remember sarasota area beingbin lockdown mode,we ewaited and charlry never came,lucky for us ,could you imagine what he would have done to srq???,i "rode out" charley at a friends house at benneva and bee rdige area,and as you stated not a gust over 30mph and maybe .50 inches,as a matter of fact the feeder band that came thru the night prior was much strongervwith 50mph winds and about a inch an about 45min
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Possible Low developing ?

The NAM in its recent runs really wants to develop that area and move it towards the Bahamas, something to keep an eye on.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Looking at that it looks like it may brush the Canadian Maritimes.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Possible Low developing ?

Link


WxLogic pointed that out a couple of hours ago.... looks like it broke off of 94L and jogged SW... some of the models pick it up... in fact... I vaguely remember one on Wed. or Thurs. that showed it.
last year TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE # 5 (AUGUST 22 2010)
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Even to the untrained eye, this speaks volumes. Is that circular pattern off FL how we got Jeanne back after she meandered off in 2004? We called it the Fujiwama!
1630. gugi182
93L is at 10% can someone explain me why and if there's any chance of it reviving?
Quoting gugi182:
93L is at 10% can someone explain me why and if there's any chance of it reviving?


It is lacking a lot of convection, and it will likely revive.
Quoting gugi182:
93L is at 10% can someone explain me why and if there's any chance of it reviving?


It's looking anemic now, but it'll probably revive as it approaches the Caribbean.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Eww, 94L is naked...

Hey 94L! (sarcastically) Nice outfit dude! pfff bwahahaha!!!!
Quoting stillwaiting:
i can remember sarasota area beingbin lockdown mode,we ewaited and charlry never came,lucky for us ,could you imagine what he would have done to srq???,i "rode out" charley at a friends house at benneva and bee rdige area,and as you stated not a gust over 30mph and maybe .50 inches,as a matter of fact the feeder band that came thru the night prior was much strongervwith 50mph winds and about a inch an about 45min
You know what now that you mention it Bonnie brought more winds to our area as it moved north of us and made landfall along the Big Bend Area. I stayed put and decided to ride out Charley the day before it hit I remember in school everyone had their eyes glued to the t.v. and my last class was band & the teacher had us put all the instruments in the middle of the room. The morning before the storm was suppose to hit, I heard sirens going off outside as I was walking over to my Grandma's, when I returned home about an hr. later I turned on the news & Tampa's mayor Pam Iorio was talking & at that same moment the person conducting the interview got word from one of the local met. that Charley had begun its right hand turn well before it was expected.
1635. 900MB
Quoting tropicfreak:


I see it too.



Looks like a wave for now, but it's weather, anything can happen.
Quoting Landfall2004:


Even to the untrained eye, this speaks volumes. Is that circular pattern off FL how we got Jeanne back after she meandered off in 2004? We called it the Fujiwama!


So, just how many "ignore" lists am I on? :<(
1637. DFWjc
It's been nice with two out of last three days of rain, the 100 consecutive streak over, I'm am soooo thankful for the cooler weather here in North Texas!!
1638. HCW
Morning everybody. I guess they upgraded to Franklin this a.m.? Wasn't nothing on the NHC site at ll p.m......

Also saw the "good" news re 93L.... though this could be bad news if it means we get a definite Caribbean tracker out of it...

Taking it easy today...
Quoting stillwaiting:
i can remember sarasota area beingbin lockdown mode,we ewaited and charlry never came,lucky for us ,could you imagine what he would have done to srq???,i "rode out" charley at a friends house at benneva and bee rdige area,and as you stated not a gust over 30mph and maybe .50 inches,as a matter of fact the feeder band that came thru the night prior was much strongervwith 50mph winds and about a inch an about 45min


Yeah I think we came as close to a category4 as a person can get without seeing any damage. It's only going to make people shrug off the next storm that comes our way. We call it the "Sarasota bubble"
1642. txjac
Quoting DFWjc:
It's been nice with two out of last three days of rain, the 100 consecutive streak over, I'm am soooo thankful for the cooler weather here in North Texas!!


Quit keeping it all to yourself!! Send some to Houston please! lol
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You know what now that you mention it Bonnie brought more winds to our area as it moved north of us and made landfall along the Big Bend Area. I stayed put and decided to ride out Charley the day before it hit I remember in school everyone had their eyes glued to the t.v. and my last class was band & the teacher had us put all the instruments in the middle of the room. The morning before the storm was suppose to hit, I heard sirens going off outside as I was walking over to my Grandma's, when I returned home about an hr. later I turned on the news & Tampa's mayor Pam Iorio was talking & at that same moment the person conducting the interview got word from one of the local met. that Charley had begun its right hand turn well before it was expected.
lucky for you not for us Charley's turn brought extensive damage here in Port Charlotte but that damage would have been Much worse is Tampa
1644. ackee
seem 94L 92L might devlop further the RACE on how will become GERT first
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
It's pretty clear that 92L is outpacing 94L at this point, and will contribute a nice shot of moisture into the mix of these two. It could get interesting if both deepen with the combined moisture.

I'm expecting 94L to continue slowing down, due to the lower pressure exerted by 92L's wave, but by how much I'm not sure. I can say one thing, this type of interaction is virtually impossible for the models to accurately predict.

If they were to combine, even as wave of low pressure, they could in theory, begin to weaken one another at first, pushing them both further west than anticipated now, because they would essentially become one giant wave of low pressure. Might even become some kind of superwave moving West.

This will be the most interesting interaction so far this season between two adjacent systems, I believe. We all may get an education in the Fujiwara effect.
"Some level" is correct ....

How about one giant tropical wave moving west into the GOM?

So far, so good ... except I don't think they're going to the GOM.

1646. ackee
what will become of 93L

A TS
B TD
C OPen wave
D disscipate
TD 6E might form soon according to the Special TWO a few minutes ago
Quoting Landfall2004:


So, just how many "ignore" lists am I on? :<(
Well, I just got on, so I know ur not on mine... lol going back now to read earlier posts, but if u r talking abt 92L and 94L, I'm watching these two with great interest...
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
1650. PGIgirl
I can't believe I almost forgot Charlie. 7 years ago today the eye of that guy passed directly over my house in PGI. Took landscaping, pool cage, roof tiles and a strip of gutter, but left the house intact and dry. Wisely we had "got the he__ out"! Thank you State of Florida for the "post-Andrew" building codes! Anything built after those were enforced pretty much held together when the winds were clocked at 145 knots at the airport just east of our house. Please no major landfalls anywhere this year.
Quoting Landfall2004:


Even to the untrained eye, this speaks volumes. Is that circular pattern off FL how we got Jeanne back after she meandered off in 2004? We called it the Fujiwama!


Hey there, don't have anyone on ignore...lol...I was hoping one of the experts would answer....I'm just not qualified :}
Quoting gugi182:
93L is at 10% can someone explain me why and if there's any chance of it reviving?


You have to remember that 10% only defines the next 48 hours. If you had to affix a percentage for the entire duration of the tropical wave, it'd prob be 50%? The 10% is just the next 48 hours, not forever.
Quoting Landfall2004:


So, just how many "ignore" lists am I on? :<(


Not on mine.
Quoting tropicfreak:


They are warm enough.


Storms have made it out there, though it's not a common thing. I'd think it would be more likely in an el Nino, though.
Quoting ackee:
what will become of 93L

A TS
B TD
C OPen wave
D disscipate


A

Could quite possibly become a hurricane.
1656. hydrus
Quoting tropicfreak:








I lived at Twin Palms Marina, About a hundred feet from the Andy Rossi street sign...Went to high school with his grand kids. Looks a liitle different out there these days..
Quoting Tazmanian:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
Now watch them get a Hurricane to make it 6 straight.
Quoting Landfall2004:


Even to the untrained eye, this speaks volumes. Is that circular pattern off FL how we got Jeanne back after she meandered off in 2004? We called it the Fujiwama!
Jeanne, IIRC, was following a trough out, lost the steering [Nward] and then got pushed west by the re-expanding high. That was one scenario that the models were considering with Emily, may she rest forever....

This situation is a bit different.
1659. ackee
Iam trying to figure what going on with 93L shear seem very low DIR air seem to somewhat of a factor but system just seem have even lost its spin think NHC need deactivate 93L for now just my view
Looking at 94L, 92L, and 93L.. its almost impossible to tell which one might become Gert first they are all really disorganized this morning. Basing this entirely off model support, but I'd stick my neck out slightly for 92L to become Gert then 93L becoming Harvey next week. There's an equally likely chance 92L won't develop and 93L will become Gert and vice versa.
1662. hydrus
CMC has a small low hitting South Florida and 93 heading toward Jamaica.Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looking at 94L, 92L, and 93L.. its almost impossible to tell which one might become Gert first they are all really disorganized this morning. Basing this entirely off model support, but I'd stick my neck out slightly for 92L to become Gert then 93L becoming Harvey next week. There's an equally likely chance 92L won't develop and 93L will become Gert and vice versa.

So I guess 94L is not going to form anytime soon?
1664. Thrawst
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Eww, 94L is naked...


PUT some clothes ON!
1665. IKE

Quoting ackee:
Iam trying to figure what going on with 93L shear seem very low DIR air seem to somewhat of a factor but system just seem have even lost its spin think NHC need deactivate 93L for now just my view
93L does look like it's heading to deactivation.
93L is vary weak at this time all most look like a open wave
Ok everyone, I have a question, maybe a little off topic, but weather related. I have a anemometer that's mounted at about 5 ft, cause I haven't been able to figure out a permanent way to mount it higher as of right at the moment. Is there any way to take the readings it's recording and adjust based on the height, or is it too much guess work. I'll get it mounted higher later on it's just a matter of finding the right spot.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Now watch them get a Hurricane to make it 6 straight.

Well, coincidentally, the Atlantic has had 6 consecutive tropical storms.
Quoting PGIgirl:
I can't believe I almost forgot Charlie. 7 years ago today the eye of that guy passed directly over my house in PGI. Took landscaping, pool cage, roof tiles and a strip of gutter, but left the house intact and dry. Wisely we had "got the he__ out"! Thank you State of Florida for the "post-Andrew" building codes! Anything built after those were enforced pretty much held together when the winds were clocked at 145 knots at the airport just east of our house. Please no major landfalls anywhere this year.
Was not a fun day in Charlotte county as I lost everything. agree no major landfalls.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Jeanne, IIRC, was following a trough out, lost the steering [Nward] and then got pushed west by the re-expanding high. That was one scenario that the models were considering with Emily, may she rest forever....

This situation is a bit different.


TY, Baha :)
There is almost nothing left of 93L:
1672. ackee
I have seen what happen to 93L sometimes happen to some system before condtion are right but system just falls apart can never predict mother Nature
1673. SLU
94L is getting better defined and the center appears to be tightening up. I needs more deep convection to be called a TD. Meanwhile 92L is in very bad shape now.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
1674. hydrus
The vorticity 850mb shows the South Florida blob spinning up quick...Link
Good morning, everyone.
1676. msphar
Part of the problem is that it has to hang together for something like 33 degrees of Westing and good bit of Northing. Its located at 122W currently. Hilo is at 20N 155W That is a long run for any storm. Plus the water temp and then the twin towers of Kea and Loa helping to deflect. Then the rest of the islands curve Northwest from there.

Storms have reached these but it is rare. There was one back in the 80s, Iniki I think it was called and it devastated the garden island (Kauai) but it was a major storm to hang together for that long distance.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

So I guess 94L is not going to form anytime soon?


I don't think so, 94L is encountering pretty good shear and getting dry air blasted into its core right now.
Quoting tropicfreak:


A

Could quite possibly become a hurricane.
best chance of being a major so far
Quoting 12george1:

Well, coincidentally, the Atlantic has had 6 consecutive tropical storms.
Yep, I wonder what is the record for most Hurricanes in a row over there?
Quoting charlottefl:
Ok everyone, I have a question, maybe a little off topic, but weather related. I have a anemometer that's mounted at about 5 ft, cause I haven't been able to figure out a permanent way to mount it higher as of right at the moment. Is there any way to take the readings it's recording and adjust based on the height, or is it too much guess work. I'll get it mounted higher later on it's just a matter of finding the right spot.
None that i know of Mine is 10ft above the peak of my roof using 2in clamps and a rigid pipe dowel.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


TY, Baha :)


Thx to you both! :<)
Quoting msphar:
Part of the problem is that it has to hang together for something like 33 degrees of Westing and good bit of Northing. Its located at 122W currently. Hilo is at 20N 155W That is a long run for any storm. Plus the water temp and then the twin towers of Kea and Loa helping to deflect. Then the rest of the islands curve Northwest from there.

Storms have reached these but it is rare. There was one back in the 80s, Iniki I think it was called and it devastated the garden island (Kauai) but it was a major storm to hang together for that long distance.


Iniki occured in the early 90s.
Quoting wayne0224:
None that i know of Mine is 10ft above the peak of my roof using 2in clamps and a rigid pipe dowel.


I would mount it on the roof, but it's surrounded by large oak trees, it's on a post in an open field across the street right now. So at least it's in the open. I'm gonna take a look at it again today and see if I can't figure something out.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
That area east of Nicaragua looks suspicious....
1685. Dennis8
?
1686. SLU
glad to see Texas is getting "some" rain
1689. hydrus
Quoting wayne0224:
Was not a fun day in Charlotte county as I lost everything. agree no major landfalls.
I lived on Kings Highway then..That storm tore us apart and almost killed my neighbors...Super bad day
1690. Grothar
TS Franklin developed today from the disturbance over the Gulf Stream that by yesterday, was under the warmest water of all four invests. The exceptional heat of the Gulf will continue to fuel a high potential for tropical storm generation over this portion of the North Atlantic and the possibility of extratropical storms downstream in Europe.
Quoting hydrus:
I lived on Kings Highway then..That storm tore us apart and almost killed my neighbors...Super bad day


Yeah, we were at St. Joseph's, and it pretty much destroyed the hospital...
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I don't think so, 94L is encountering pretty good shear and getting dry air blasted into its core right now.



Quoting SLU:
94L is getting better defined and the center appears to be tightening up. I needs more deep convection to be called a TD. Meanwhile 92L is in very bad shape now.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


??????
Atlantic update

Fish - Fish - Fish - Fizzle
Quoting tropicfreak:



Remember that troughs aren't as strong in the summer. This isn't October, it's August.


Well not necessarily. Keep in mind that the trough pattern is strong this year, similar to the last few years. It all depends on what's dominant. In this case most of this summer the trough has been dominant, as we head into September, the trough will likely only be stronger.

However, its like the trough is constantly in control, we have has brief periods where the high bridges across far enough to where a tropical cyclone could threaten the Southeast if one where present at the time. As the number of systems increases as we head into September, it does increase the chance of a landfall in the Southeast U.S. However keep in mind that with the trough being overall more dominant this year again. I would say the chances of landfalling hurricanes is lower than normal comparatively speaking for how active the season will be in terms of numbers. I believe Florida has a particularly lower than normal chance of a hurricane landfall.

Now, I am not saying no hurricanes will make landfall this year like last year. I'm just saying, they are lower than normal. However, I would say they are at least a bit higher than last year anyway.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yep, I wonder what is the record for most Hurricanes in a row over there?

I think 8 consecutive hurricanes in 1992 is the record.
Quoting charlottefl:


Yeah, we were at St. Joseph's, and it pretty much destroyed the hospital...
Was then and still 1 mile from exit 170 off kings hwy only scars left are dead trees snapped in half
Quoting hydrus:
I lived on Kings Highway then..That storm tore us apart and almost killed my neighbors...Super bad day
My folks have a house on Manasota key and were spared. Just 20 miles north and they would have been like North Captiva. Split in two.
1700. msphar
Sorry, I was remembering Iniki from memory and 1992 was a long time back in the memory banks.
Quoting hydrus:
The vorticity 850mb shows the South Florida blob spinning up quick...Link


split off from 94 l???
1702. lhwhelk
Quoting cajunkid:
glad to see Texas is getting "some" rain
Not in the Brazosport area. At this point, even 2-3 inches wouldn't make any difference at all. We really need a minor tropical storm, or maybe some training. NOTHING major, please.
Quoting SLU:
94L is getting better defined and the center appears to be tightening up. I needs more deep convection to be called a TD. Meanwhile 92L is in very bad shape now.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic







i dont call this better looking to me
Hello everyone:) So what is the outlook for 93L? I keep hearing it might go into the GOM..is this a possibility?

TIA :)
Quoting Tazmanian:







i dont call this better looking to me


I agree with you taz, it looks pretty bbad but the other guy does have a point it looks like a nice coc
Quoting charlottefl:
Ok everyone, I have a question, maybe a little off topic, but weather related. I have a anemometer that's mounted at about 5 ft, cause I haven't been able to figure out a permanent way to mount it higher as of right at the moment. Is there any way to take the readings it's recording and adjust based on the height, or is it too much guess work. I'll get it mounted higher later on it's just a matter of finding the right spot.

charlottefl...I have mine at 20ft and sometimes the wind is stronger at ground level than up at 20ft.
93L's other problem is his enemy 92L, which because something (that line SW of 92L) is connecting both of them.
1708. usa777
Quoting Joanie38:
Hello everyone:) So what is the outlook for 93L? I keep hearing it might go into the GOM..is this a possibility?

TIA :)

93 is looking rough this morning
Quoting charlottefl:


I would mount it on the roof, but it's surrounded by large oak trees, it's on a post in an open field across the street right now. So at least it's in the open. I'm gonna take a look at it again today and see if I can't figure something out.
Just sounds like you need a longer pole. Should be able to get something 11/12 ft long, mount and wire it up, then dig out the 2 ft to stabilize...

Quoting Joanie38:
Hello everyone:) So what is the outlook for 93L? I keep hearing it might go into the GOM..is this a possibility?

TIA :)



un less 93L starts geting it act togeter wish is vary weak right now in fac i dont even think there a low lift with it any more all so i think its a open wave it olny has a 10% ch right now
1711. SLU
Quoting Tazmanian:







i dont call this better looking to me
Quoting tropicfreak:





??????


The circulation is better defined now than it was at first light this morning. Deep convection is still lacking but there signs of development.
Quoting SLU:


The circulation is better defined now than it was at first light this morning. Deep convection is still lacking but there signs of development.


I can agree with that
Quoting 12george1:

I think 8 consecutive hurricanes in 1992 is the record.
Coincidentally the same year Hurricane Andrew devastated South Fla. while you had Hurricane Lester simultaneously spinning towards the Baja Peninsula which eventually ended up in Arizona as a tropical storm. EPAC had 31 storms formed that yr, and it was an El Nino yr. which again goes to show you it only takes 1 to make it a bad yr.
Well, yeah, now I am looking at 93L it does look pretty rough, hopefully it can get it's act together, but I guess only time will tell with ANY system. It is a wait/wait situation....fer sure...
Somewhere over the Texas
T'was so dry
There's a park that I heard of
The trees were left to die

Sometime over the Texas
Sky so blue
And the sights that you dare to see
Really speak to you

Some night I'll wish to the moonlight
And wake as the clouds roll on high
Pouring rain.
Where rain doesn't turn to virga
If it does y'all be in Sparta
Where you'll find our pain.

Someday over the Texas
Raindrops fly.
Clouds fly over the Texas
When will it rain tonight?

If those welcomed thunderstorms fly
Beyond the Texas
When will it rain tonight?


-Astro
Quoting SLU:
94L is getting better defined and the center appears to be tightening up. I needs more deep convection to be called a TD. Meanwhile 92L is in very bad shape now.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Don't forget that that's half of Emily. I called her the Wicked Witch of the East reborn, and she's living up to her name.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 131515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 13 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-074

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA #1 (94L...NEAR BERMUDA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 14/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 14/1500Z
D. 31.5N 62.5W
E. 14/1730Z TO 14/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA #2 (92L...SOUTH OF BERMUDA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 15/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 15/0900Z
D. 30.0N 64.5W
E. 15/1130Z TO 15/1630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION FOR
16/0000Z NEAR 34.0N 64.0W IF SECOND SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Anyone knows where 93L's COC is? looking like a mess today.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Somewhere over the Texas
T'was so dry
There's a park that I heard of
The trees were left to die

Sometime over the Texas
Sky so blue
And the sights that you dare to see
Really speak to you

Some night I'll wish to the moonlight
And wake as the clouds roll on high
Pouring rain.
Where rain doesn't turn to virga
If it does y'all be in Sparta
Where you'll find our pain.

Someday over the Texas
Raindrops fly.
Clouds fly over the Texas
When will it rain tonight?

If those welcomed thunderstorms fly
Beyond the Texas
When will it rain tonight?


-Astro


WOW!!! NICE! GREAT JOB!! :) I like it!!! :)
Quoting Vincent4989:
Anyone knows where 93L's COC is? looking like a mess today.



93L is so weak right now that is now a open wave
94L would be a TD with a slight increase in convection close to the center.

Really surprised to see what has happened to 93L.
Quoting Vincent4989:
Anyone knows where 93L's COC is? looking like a mess today.


missingin action
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Somewhere over the Texas
T'was so dry
There's a park that I heard of
The trees were left to die

Sometime over the Texas
Sky so blue
And the sights that you dare to see
Really speak to you

Some night I'll wish to the moonlight
And wake as the clouds roll on high
Pouring rain.
Where rain doesn't turn to virga
If it does y'all be in Sparta
Where you'll find our pain.

Someday over the Texas
Raindrops fly.
Clouds fly over the Texas
When will it rain tonight?

If those welcomed thunderstorms fly
Beyond the Texas
When will it rain tonight?


-Astro

AMAZING!
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Don't forget that that's half of Emily. I called her the Wicked Witch of the East reborn, and she's living up to her name.

Wait......
94L was rejected from the remains of Emily which is- son of......


wait for it.......




THE BLOB!!!!!!!!!!!





Hi everyone. I want to get one of those weather stations to put outside, to measure wind etc. What is good one? What are you using?
Quoting Tazmanian:







i dont call this better looking to me
neither do i, getting sheared and llc exposed,looks like all the other has been or wannabe atlantic TD/TS
Quoting GTcooliebai:
sorry to say, but I believe our luck will run out soon enough.


Ehhh not really. Mathematically speaking, the probability of Tampa being hit has not changed. Its just that Tampa has a low chance of a direct hurricane strike.

Remember, when we are talking accuracy, there is no such thing as luck. There is also no such thing as "overdue". Probability is probability. If you say, flip a coin, even if you flip on tails say, 6 times in a row. The chance is always 50%, that it will land on tales or heads. It would be inaccurate to say its overdue to land on heads because it landed on tails 6 times in a row.

Therefore, the same goes for hurricanes. The probability of hurricane hitting Tampa directly is low. I'm not sure what the percentage chance is, but it is very low, so Tampa is not "overdue".


Now, math does not have a bias, or superstition like people can have, it just tells the honest truth. The fact is, Tampa has a low probability of a hurricane strike. But because the chance does exist, Tampa could be hit again as it has before. One day it will be hit again, be we cannot say how long it will take. It could happen this year, or Tampa may go another 40 or 50 years without a direct strike.


Ultimately, we should always be prepared for a potential strike living in Tampa Bay, we should never blow off a threatening hurricane. But we should not fear that Tampa must get hit soon because it hasn't in a while, there is not overdue. The probability is the same.
See this "glitch" in this PW animation?

For some guys out there, they would blame that to a "Massive HF HAARP" application to 93L, in order to destroy it..... From where? From US muclear ships that have HAARP systems incorporated...



A lot of conspiracy theorists in the Net...
94L is not exactly moving according to plan. West we Go is the latest I can see.

Granted, Emily reborn is a naked swirl at the moment, but she may be waiting for her next chance at stardom ...
1730. IKE

Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Atlantic update

Fish - Fish - Fish - Fizzle
lol.
Quoting Vincent4989:

Wait......
94L was rejected from the remains of Emily which is- son of......


wait for it.......




THE BLOB!!!!!!!!!!!








THE BLOB!!!!! THE CHART!!!! POST PICTURES OF THEM BOTH
1732. SLU
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Don't forget that that's half of Emily. I called her the Wicked Witch of the East reborn, and she's living up to her name.


It certainly has a better skeleton than EMILY.
Quoting MississippiWx:
94L would be a TD with a slight increase in convection close to the center.

Really surprised to see what has happened to 93L.


The pattern so far is waves looking fenomenal as they emerge Africa,but as soon they hit the dry zone,they turn into nothing.
93L's problems:
1.Dry air
2.SAL
3.Moderate wind shear
4.The wire connecting it to 92L
Just a reminder that, climatologically-speaking, the sixth named storm of the average Atlantic hurricane season (1966-2009) doesn't appear until September 8; the average by this date is three storms. (However, the first hurricane usually appears on August 10.)
Quoting 12george1:

I think 8 consecutive hurricanes in 1992 is the record.


It looks like it.

Funnily enough, the Atlantic can go a bit better than that (I suppose a fair few more seasons to go at).
"Plop Plop Fizz Fizz Oh what a relief it is..LOL! :)
1738. DFWjc
Quoting txjac:


Quit keeping it all to yourself!! Send some to Houston please! lol


No way, after 43 days of no rain and over 100+ LOL
Quoting Vincent4989:
93L's problems:
1.Dry air
2.SAL
3.Moderate wind shear
4.The wire connecting it to 92L


all of those is the problem
1740. 7544
Quoting MississippiWx:
94L would be a TD with a slight increase in convection close to the center.

Really surprised to see what has happened to 93L.


is it 94l the cmc shows heading to fla tia
Quoting Jedkins01:


Ehhh not really. Mathematically speaking, the probability of Tampa being hit has not changed. Its just that Tampa has a low chance of a direct hurricane strike.

Remember, when we are talking accuracy, there is no such thing as luck. There is also no such thing as "overdue". Probability is probability. If you say, flip a coin, even if you flip on tails say, 6 times in a row. The chance is always 50%, that it will land on tales or heads. It would be inaccurate to say its overdue to land on heads because it landed on tails 6 times in a row.

Therefore, the same goes for hurricanes. The probability of hurricane hitting Tampa directly is low. I'm not sure what the percentage chance is, but it is very low, so Tampa is not "overdue".


Now, math does not have a bias, or superstition like people can have, it just tells the honest truth. The fact is, Tampa has a low probability of a hurricane strike. But because the chance does exist, Tampa could be hit again as it has before. One day it will be hit again, be we cannot say how long it will take. It could happen this year, or Tampa may go another 40 or 50 years without a direct strike.


Ultimately, we should always be prepared for a potential strike living in Tampa Bay, we should never blow off a threatening hurricane. But we should not fear that Tampa must get hit soon because it hasn't in a while, there is not overdue. The probability is the same.
,vounerable yes,overdue no +1
1695. Jedkins01 11:34 AM EDT on August 13, 2011

Good Morning Folks. You raise some interesting points. Main one being that we cannot accurately predict general landfall locations until less than a week out and even then things can change at the last minute. Many of the papers out there focus on percentage probabilities during a particular ENSO cycle (Neutral-Nina-Nino) for a particular general area (Caribbean-Gulf-East Coast)and higher or lower strike probability based on observed analog years. However, the ENSO component of any specific season is only half of the story when you consider ridging and trof patterns which can change during the season regardless of the ENSO cycle. We have gotten closer with the numbers over the years (below avg-average-above average with a few exceptions like 2005)but predicting large scale synoptic patterns at any specific time are much more difficult to nail down; the "fish" pattern last year just happened to stay in place during the peak but I could not tell you whether that will be the case this year.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Somewhere over the Texas
T'was so dry
There's a park that I heard of
The trees were left to die

Sometime over the Texas
Sky so blue
And the sights that you dare to see
Really speak to you

Some night I'll wish to the moonlight
And wake as the clouds roll on high
Pouring rain.
Where rain doesn't turn to virga
If it does y'all be in Sparta
Where you'll find our pain.

Someday over the Texas
Raindrops fly.
Clouds fly over the Texas
When will it rain tonight?

If those welcomed thunderstorms fly
Beyond the Texas
When will it rain tonight?


-Astro


astro-nomical thats was awesome your a poeet and i know it
for the 1st time i am starting too see some deeper t-storms for 93L showing up
Quoting weatherh98:



THE BLOB!!!!! THE CHART!!!! POST PICTURES OF THEM BOTH


Quoting sunlinepr:
See this "glitch" in this PW animation?

For some guys out there, they would blame that to a "Massive HF HAARP" application to 93L, in order to destroy it..... From where? From US muclear ships that have HAARP systems incorporated...


So let's see now, they're upsetting the balance of fever in the Atlantic basin for how long? Destroying the conveyor belt for what purpose? Adjusting weather patterns in Europe and the rest of the world, without any notice by other advanced nations?

Get real, there are dozens of scientists monitoring this activity as noise in their ionosphere research. Do you think they would all keep their mouths tightly shut? Not a chance.

Do your homework before you go babbling this crazy crap here. It's nonsense, and would be considered an act of war by any nation suffering drought or other weather related disaster as even a suspected indirect result.
Quoting sunlinepr:
See this "glitch" in this PW animation?

For some guys out there, they would blame that to a "Massive HF HAARP" application to 93L, in order to destroy it..... From where? From US muclear ships that have HAARP systems incorporated...



A lot of conspiracy theorists in the Net...



There was a really big solar flare event a few days ago. Was probably from that.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Ehhh not really. Mathematically speaking, the probability of Tampa being hit has not changed. Its just that Tampa has a low chance of a direct hurricane strike.

Remember, when we are talking accuracy, there is no such thing as luck. There is also no such thing as "overdue". Probability is probability. If you say, flip a coin, even if you flip on tails say, 6 times in a row. The chance is always 50%, that it will land on tales or heads. It would be inaccurate to say its overdue to land on heads because it landed on tails 6 times in a row.

Therefore, the same goes for hurricanes. The probability of hurricane hitting Tampa directly is low. I'm not sure what the percentage chance is, but it is very low, so Tampa is not "overdue".


Now, math does not have a bias, or superstition like people can have, it just tells the honest truth. The fact is, Tampa has a low probability of a hurricane strike. But because the chance does exist, Tampa could be hit again as it has before. One day it will be hit again, be we cannot say how long it will take. It could happen this year, or Tampa may go another 40 or 50 years without a direct strike.


Ultimately, we should always be prepared for a potential strike living in Tampa Bay, we should never blow off a threatening hurricane. But we should not fear that Tampa must get hit soon because it hasn't in a while, there is not overdue. The probability is the same.


Like tht
1750. DFWjc
Quoting sunlinepr:


What's causing the invest train to curve back out into the Atlantic?
Quoting weatherh98:


all of those is the problem

i know, i made it bold to mark that problem as

weird.
Quoting E46Pilot:
Hi everyone. I want to get one of those weather stations to put outside, to measure wind etc. What is good one? What are you using?
One of the links above is about weather stations; it's pretty informative and has a list of brands / stations that work with Wunderground. Also one of our regular bloggers, aquak9, has some interests in that kind of business. She and her husband have a nifty website at rainmanweather.com that you can check out.
Quoting Vincent4989:

i know, i made it bold to mark that problem as

weird.


oh sorry fo the misunderstanding
hopefully these fish tales continues
Quoting E46Pilot:
Hi everyone. I want to get one of those weather stations to put outside, to measure wind etc. What is good one? What are you using?
I use the La Crosse ws-2812 runs around 200.00 and is all wireless. However i beleve Home Depot and walmart carry some that run around 100.00 and less
Quoting BahaHurican:
One of the links above is about weather stations; it's pretty informative and has a list of brands / stations that work with Wunderground. Also one of our regular bloggers, aquak9, has some interests in that kind of business. She and her husband have a nifty website at rainmanweather.com that you can check out.


Oh cool, thanks for the info.
1757. SLU
Quoting Vincent4989:
93L's problems:
1.Dry air
2.SAL
3.Moderate wind shear
4.The wire connecting it to 92L
Quoting Vincent4989:
93L's problems:
1.Dry air
2.SAL
3.Moderate wind shear
4.The wire connecting it to 92L


The "wire connecting it to 92L" is a line of convergence caused by the increase in the tradewinds in the wake of 92L. When there are multiple systems, they are normally "connected" by these convergence lines.
Time for errands. Have a great day and will check in this evening.
1759. nigel20

Good morning guys.
it seems alot of the times the yrs to really be aware are the yrs of nothing until boom 92
morning SLU

what is your take on 93L? I JUST DON'T TRUST THESE SLEEPING MONSTERS.
1762. nigel20

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
So let's see now, they're upsetting the balance of fever in the Atlantic basin for how long? Destroying the conveyor belt for what purpose? Adjusting weather patterns in Europe and the rest of the world, without any notice by other advanced nations?

Get real, there are dozens of scientists monitoring this activity as noise in their ionosphere research. Do you think they would all keep their mouths tightly shut? Not a chance.

Do your homework before you go babbling this crazy crap here. It's nonsense, and would be considered an act of war by any nation suffering drought or other weather related disaster as even a suspected indirect result.


Its no crazy crap....By no way I eat the HAARP crap theory. But many nations in their interests of maintaining their world class positions do try to play God... There have been many secret projects by these nations, since the cold war, that now we have some knowledge of.. And there a many secret projects going on, where the is no consideration of human rights, or the effect it will have in natural balance...
ODA, I think I'm in your side and not against you...
These considerations, create concience of what is hidden...
maybe invest 96L DOWN THE ROAD!!
Quoting DFWjc:


What's causing the invest train to curve back out into the Atlantic?


The Azores High... Stronger or weaker... curves waves.
And many other variables.

CMC regional run generates what is probably a hybrid system off the east coast in 48 hrs. The core of the system draws off a 576 dm 500 thickness which is plenty tropical and the low drops 5 mb btn 36h and 48h on the run. I've seen a few of these warm valued and yet mainly baroclinic systems develop in the gulf stream before, and if they indeed rapidly intensify they can make a quick left hook back into the upper trof and actually landfall.

Link
i see the ultra zonic atomspheric wave generating device has worked on 93L great now lets see whats next to be zapped
1768. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
morning SLU

what is your take on 93L? I JUST DON'T TRUST THESE SLEEPING MONSTERS.


It's dead now. There is a weak rotation in the low level cloud field but it lacks deep convection. Yet still, all of the reliable models show increasing organisation once it gets to 50 west.
LOOK AT THIS LOW OFF THE EAST COAST!!
Quoting nigel20:

Good morning guys.

Franklin's going to be torn apart.......... really really bad by 90 knots of shear.
Quoting jasoniswildman20x1:
LOOK AT THIS LOW OFF THE EAST COAST!!

I was already watching that
1772. zparkie
There seems to be something in the atmosphere wrecking these storms. The storms cant maintain convection for a period of time and then just disappear. No named hurricanes yet? Something drastic has to change soon or we may not have a hurricane this year. It just looks odd on satelite, storm then no storm, comes off Africa and scatters and wimps out, this may be good, the atmospheric conditions are tearing them up.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i see the ultra zonic atomspheric wave generating device has worked on 93L great now lets see whats next to be zapped

The monster high over TX? How much money do they need? I'll send all I have.
1774. aquak9
Something drastic has to change soon or we may not have a hurricane this year.

And that's a bad thing?
1775. LargoFl
Quoting SLU:


It's dead now. There is a weak rotation in the low level cloud field but it lacks deep convection. Yet still, all of the reliable models show increasing organisation once it get to 50 west.
interesting how that one model has it headed for the gulf at the end of the run, gulf temp is rather high now, fuel for a storm.
thanks man
Quoting sunlinepr:


Its no crazy crap....By no way I eat the HAARP crap theory. But many nations in their interests of maintaining their world class positions do try to play God... There have been many secret projects by these nations, since the cold war, that now we have some knowledge of.. And there a many secret projects going on, where the is no consideration of human rights, or the effect it will have in natural balance...
ODA, I think I'm in your side and not against you...
Cloud seeding has been an established practice, and is not considered to be a threat. HAARP would be considered a threat to nations for a variety of reasons.

The main reason people believe in HAARP now, is because they've seen things that intrigue them. Like NASA's facilities being hit with perfect aim, three times between 2005 and 2008, each by an unusual and historic storm. Stennis, Canaveral, Mission Control, but it has nothing to do with HAARP. HAARP isn't capable of doing that.

That kind of aim has to do with something else, because it wasn't by pure chance, I can assure you. Try explaining the statistics available to any actuary to the science buffs here. Those three direct hits were forecast by someone too, making it even rarer.
1778. hydrus
Quoting nigel20:

That is alot of warm water in the Western Caribbean.....
1779. nigel20
Quoting Vincent4989:

Franklin's going to be torn apart.......... really really bad by 90 knots of shear.

Franklin will likely be gone by tonight/tomorrow.
1780. emcf30
Quoting stoormfury:
morning SLU

what is your take on 93L? I JUST DON'T TRUST THESE SLEEPING MONSTERS.


Even though 93L looks terrible, it looked a lot worst last night and early this morning. Convection is starting to fire back up. Staying weak was not the best case scenario which is going to keep it tracking more towards the West. If it would have developed early on it would have had a lot better chance of not impacting any land. JMO. As you said, DON'T TRUST THESE SLEEPING MONSTERS.
1781. ncstorm
Quoting Jedkins01:


Ehhh not really. Mathematically speaking, the probability of Tampa being hit has not changed. Its just that Tampa has a low chance of a direct hurricane strike.

Remember, when we are talking accuracy, there is no such thing as luck. There is also no such thing as "overdue". Probability is probability. If you say, flip a coin, even if you flip on tails say, 6 times in a row. The chance is always 50%, that it will land on tales or heads. It would be inaccurate to say its overdue to land on heads because it landed on tails 6 times in a row.

Therefore, the same goes for hurricanes. The probability of hurricane hitting Tampa directly is low. I'm not sure what the percentage chance is, but it is very low, so Tampa is not "overdue".


Now, math does not have a bias, or superstition like people can have, it just tells the honest truth. The fact is, Tampa has a low probability of a hurricane strike. But because the chance does exist, Tampa could be hit again as it has before. One day it will be hit again, be we cannot say how long it will take. It could happen this year, or Tampa may go another 40 or 50 years without a direct strike.


Ultimately, we should always be prepared for a potential strike living in Tampa Bay, we should never blow off a threatening hurricane. But we should not fear that Tampa must get hit soon because it hasn't in a while, there is not overdue. The probability is the same.
But statistics says we should get hit once every 13 years and a brush every other year. So I don't think the percentage is actually that low. It is interesting to note though, that we kept getting brushed year after year it seems from the late 1800s to early 1900s Link It may have had a lot to do with the weather patterns back then & might one day revert back to it. And I found this also interesting to go along with our "Great Tampa Bay Hurricane"...Latest hurricane to strike the U. S.: late on November 30, 1925 near Tampa, Florida. You also have the Great Gale of 1848 which caused a water rise of 15ft! in Tampa Bay and for a category 1 storm it had a pressure reading and storm surge of a Category 4 Hurricane! As far as a major Hurricane goes, we haven't been brushed by one since Alma in 1960, but as me and you both know it doesn't take a major Hurricane and a direct hit to due damage to across this region. Take Gabrielle, Frances, and Jeanne for instance while they weren't direct hits, all three storms brought Hurricane force wind gusts to the area, & my neighbors tree got uprooted during Jeanne & Bay Shore Blvd. was flooded from the storm surge.
Quoting severstorm:

charlottefl...I have mine at 20ft and sometimes the wind is stronger at ground level than up at 20ft.
30 ft is the recomended
Yes, 93L is looking a little sick this morning, but in SWLA on the GOM coast, still being wary.
Quoting SLU:


It's dead now. There is a weak rotation in the low level cloud field but it lacks deep convection. Yet still, all of the reliable models show increasing organisation once it gets to 50 west.


There's not much to the broad low there, ships in the area from 1600 UTC report pressures from 1012mbar at the center to 1014mbar 5 degrees of longitude from the invest's center.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
1786. zparkie
Thats a good thing, I am just wondering about these weather specialists who predict how many hurricanes we are going to have. I am not too reliant on these predictions, they must be throwing darts at a dart board and whatever number it hits, thats what they predict
Quoting ncstorm:


Interesting, so the center of the azores high is on the move west.
1788. nigel20
Quoting hydrus:
That is alot of warm water in the Western Caribbean.....

If a storm enters the Caribbean along with favorable conditions, then rapid intensification could take place.
1789. ncstorm
Quoting nofailsafe:


Interesting, so the center of the azores high is on the move west.


yes and with that move, it will push 92L more west as well..eithier blocking it or recurving it further west..
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



I bet the cell phone reception is EXCELLENT on that ship.



Morning All. 94L split in two, 96L & 97L soon?
Opinion time:
93L will be gone tommorow. YES or NO
Franklin will exceed 45mph. YES or NO
94L will form. YES or NO
92L will form. YES or NO
Which of them will become hurricanes? 92L 93L 94L Franklin
1793. aquak9
Quoting E46Pilot:
Hi everyone. I want to get one of those weather stations to put outside, to measure wind etc. What is good one? What are you using?


Hi E46. Yes we own RainmanWeather, a WeatherUnderground approved vendor. Best station on the market right now? Probably any of the Davis products, unless you have the money to go with a Rainwise.

TyconPower is much less expensive than the Davis, but it's made overseas (and re-branded by another weather-product company as it's own) and unfortunately we are seeing more and more DOA's. Davis products are made in the USA and we are proud to carry them.

Full on-line and telephone technical support is available to our customers, to help you get up and running, and downloading data to WU, if desired.

Contact the company via the website, say you're from WU, and get an even better price.

BTW, we have an assortment of 4 different stations running at home, as well as thirteen other products with alarms, bells, lights, etc. This place is like NORAD when a storm approaches! :)
Quoting nigel20:

If a storm enters the Caribbean along with favorable conditions, then rapid intensification could take place.



Maybe a dumb question here, but.... can a "system" currently as weak as 93L undergo rapid intensification? It seems to me much more likely for rapid intensification to happen to a storm that is already structurally well defined. I didnt know if rapid intensification can take something from an open tropical wave quickly to a tropical storm or hurricane in a days time
1795. ncstorm
GFS and Texas..

12Z
Link
1796. SLU
1776. stoormfury 4:30 PM GMT on August 13, 2011

Yep!
New Blog
back to Texas this run.



GFS 12z out a looong time - trying to be VERY scary....

NEW BLOG
1801. nigel20
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:



Maybe a dumb question here, but.... can a "system" currently as weak as 93L undergo rapid intensification? It seems to me much more likely for rapid intensification to happen to a storm that is already structurally well defined. I didnt know if rapid intensification can take something from an open tropical wave quickly to a tropical storm or hurricane in a days time

I agree with you, a well defined storm is more likely to undergo rapid intensification than weaker systems, but it can happen with weaker systems also.
Quoting zparkie:
There seems to be something in the atmosphere wrecking these storms. The storms cant maintain convection for a period of time and then just disappear. No named hurricanes yet? Something drastic has to change soon or we may not have a hurricane this year. It just looks odd on satelite, storm then no storm, comes off Africa and scatters and wimps out, this may be good, the atmospheric conditions are tearing them up.


You have obviously never had to attempt to repair your roof when there are no shingles to be had, cut down trees that have fallen on your house, lived for days or weeks in a hundred degree heat with no a/c, or saw friends, neighbors or family lose loved ones/thier homes/their way of life.
1803. zparkie
Yeah, I dont want any hurricanes, but they always every year say we will, I was just thinking that the pattern we are in might stay that way and we have no hurricanes, that would be good. August if flying by and its looking good so far.
1804. zparkie
Good to see Texas is getting some rain, everything is brown out there, the whole state has been suffering for months.
Getting tired of saying this but we're ahead of schedule, first hurricane isn't normally until August 10th so we're only a few days behind the climo norm. F name isn't until September 8th or so, 2002 didn't see a hurricane until September and that was Gustav, 2010 after Alex didn't see another hurricane until late-August, 2010 had a bunch of weak storms just not as many, Alex was a one off rarity for June, do I need to go on lol?
New Blog
New blog?
Dang! I Just realized, today's August 13th isn't it? I remember what I was doing 8 years ago today, I lived north of John Young Parkway in Orlando, Charley hit Punta Gorda.. weakened to a Category 1 by the time it reached me. Remember it was really gusty that day, had to struggle to move chairs to the garage with my family, lost about 15 shingles or so. Wasn't terrible, not all that different from Isabel the prior year for me.. I can't say I can relate to the people in Punta Gorda however.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
There is almost nothing left of 93L:


I think 93L is a sleeper, still gotta watch it closely imo
Quoting stormpetrol:


I think 93L is a sleeper, still gotta watch it closely imo
hope you dont have an X on your back good luck
13/1745 UTC 39.5N 56.8W EXTRATROPICAL FRANKLIN -- Atlantic