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Forecasting the volcanic ash plume of Iceland's volcano

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:45 PM GMT on April 19, 2010

The eruption of Iceland's volcano with the unpronounceable name, Eyjafjallajökull, has virtually ceased over the past few hours, with ash only reaching up to 6,000 feet (1800 meters), according to the latest advisory from the UK Met Office. Lightning images from UK Met Office show no new lightning strikes from the volcano's plume since midnight local time today. The relatively small amount of ash present at low altitudes will probably not be able to make it all the way to mainland Europe before falling to the surface and dissipating, since 6,000 feet is below the altitude that the strong winds of jet stream blow. Wednesday through Sunday, the volcano emitted a towering cloud of volcanic ash 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') high in the air from its 1666 meter (5500') high peak. The jet stream blows strongly at that altitude range, which allowed for efficient transport of the ash cloud to mainland Europe.


Figure 1. Lightning lights up the night sky in this photo of Eyjafjallajökull's eruption taken on April 16, 2010. Ash particles colliding together separate electric charge, much as ice particles in a thunderstorm do, leading to spectacular lightning displays. Image credit: Marco, Fulle, Stromboli Online.

Forecasts of the movement of the ash cloud are made using trajectory models, which have a number of uncertainties to consider. Firstly, the amount of ash ejected by the volcano is highly uncertain, since our measurements of this quantity are limited. Secondly, the models must compute how high the ash cloud will rise (plume rise), based on the best available measurements of atmospheric stability. Since upper air-observations are taken just twice daily by a very coarse network of balloon soundings, our knowledge of the stability is rather crude. Finally, the trajectory models use forecast winds from a global model such as the GFS model to predict where the plume may go. The forecast winds from this model do not capture much of the complicated structure of the wind field over Europe, leading to a rather fuzzy approximation of where the ash will go. Nevertheless, these models have in general done a respectable job forecasting where the ash from Eyjafjallajökull will go over the past few days.


Figure 2. Cross section of the atmosphere over time over Paliseau, France, on April 16, 2010, as observed using ground-based lidar. Image taken using a 532nm cross polarization NFOV telescope. Note how the ash layer sinks closer to the ground as time progresses, as gravity makes the ash sink to the ground. There may also be some atmospheric subsidence occurring (downward moving air due to large-scale atmospheric processes.) Image credit: Ray Hoff, World Meteorological Organization's Global Atmosphere Watch's Aerosol Lidar Network (GALION).

For the next few days, these models continue to indicate that northwest winds at the jet stream level will continue to affect Iceland. As a result, Spain, Portugal, and Greece will offer the best locations to fly from. The northwesterly winds are expected to continue for the remainder of the week, thanks to an upper-level trough of low pressure over northern Europe. On Saturday April 24, the ECMWF model predicts that the trough will slide eastwards, and a ridge of high pressure will build over Europe. This will bring upper-level winds out of the southwest to Iceland, directing any volcanic ash northwards over the North Pole. Thus for the remainder of this week, expect continued ash clouds over much of Europe if the volcano resumes significant eruptions. But by next Sunday, the ash over Europe should decline considerably. For the latest one-day forecasts of where the ash cloud is expected to go, consult the UKMET Office. The Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research at the University of Cologne also has some excellent simulations from an atmospheric dispersion model of Eyjafjallajökull's eruption plume. The Norwegian Institute for Air Research runs a computer trajectory model called FLEXPART that has 1-day forecasts showing a cross section of the atmosphere. NOAA's Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) lets you perform your own model run using their HYSPLIT model, going out up to 48 hours, using the GFS model as input.


Figure 3. NASA's Aqua satellite captured this image of the eruption at 1:20 UTC on April 17, 2010. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Links
An excellent source of links of information on the eruption is available at http://islande2010.mbnet.fr/2010/04/eyjafjallajok ul-links-liens-a-propos-de-leyjafjallajokul/. My post on Thursday discusses the likely non-impact of this eruption on Earth's climate. Finally, we need to be keeping an eye on earthquake activity at the dangerous Katla volcano next to Eyjafjallajökull. If that volcano blows, it could mean dwarf the headaches caused by Eyjafjallajökull.

Jeff Masters

Volcano

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. JRRP
i wonder when do we will see the first Tropical Wave?

see you tomorrow
I've decided the volcano should be pronounced "Hey ya forgot ya yogurt"
............. :)
Link

first cam back up watchin ya can see glacier fissure where melt water runs beneath it strange hole at base above where the river looks to come from
Well; off to bed....See you folks tommorow sometime....WW
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
While El Nino in the Pacific is waning, there is a time lag in the overall atmospheric response on the Atlantic so I'm wondering "when" the jet stream is going to retreat to the North and allow favorable conditions in the Gulf..This current El Nino pattern of persistent lows being ejected into the Gulf from the West (in April) is almost similar to the conditions in the late Fall when cold fronts/remnants are possible brewing grounds in the Gulf late in the season...Just trying to figure out where the first storm of the season might form this year and whether it might form the Gulf, rather than the Caribbean, if this general weather pattern for the Gulf is still around come later May early June when sheers dies down.....


There's not really a lag, as this El Nino is atmospheric-driven.
Keeper how far do think the farms are away from the blast?
long range GFS still develops a storm in the SW Caribbean
couple miles i guess
510. xcool
Top 10 Lightning prone states


1. Florida
2. Louisiana
3. Mississippi
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. South Carolina
7. Tennessee
8. Kentucky
9. Illinois
10. Oklahoma
I thought that too.. went to Google Earth and I think it would be nice place to real nice place to go in the summer
Fl is the top place in the US but not the world
513. xcool
Link


ecmwf .show !!!!!!!!
I think the sod roof house are cool
Quoting xcool:
Link


ecmwf .show !!!!!!!!


ok what about it?
516. xcool
Hurricanes101 ... Nothing
"While many airlines are complaining that European authorities are exaggerating the risk to air traffic from volcanic ash in the air, officials have said the engines of fighter jets have been affected by it. Reuters cited a senior US official as saying on Monday that glass build-up was found in an engine of a NATO F-16 fighter plane. Separately, the Finnish Air Force said Boeing F-18 Hornet fighters were affected by ash before the airspace closures last Thursday."

"Images show that ingested ash has melted under the extremely high temperatures -- which may reach approximately 1,000 degrees centigrade -- prevailing in the combustion chamber."

"The cloud smells like a steam engine."
Quoting Xyrus:


No, you're HEARING about more earthquakes than you ever had because of the global information grid.

You've got 24 hour news stations, a real-time network of world seismographs, the internet, blogs, twitter, RSS feeds, and iPhones. Not only can you know about an Earthquake in Uzbekistan in 20 seconds, you can also find out that Carlos's grandmother just fell asleep and farted in church in El Salvador.

It's not just earthquakes either. Hurricanes, tornados, volcanos, floods, or any other world phenomenon you are far more likely to read or hear about today than even 20 years ago. Everyday more of the world becomes accessible to your fingertips, and with that comes all the additional information and knowledge that you would have never known about.

I know it's the "in" thing to throw out the aggregated research and discoveries of experts in their scientific fields based on gut feeling. Before you do that, just stop and consider how much more information we have available today and how much better connected we all are.

~X~
good morning everyone just another day on the planet earth
Hi, good morning from under the ash cloud in Germany (though very nice and clear weather), including a lot of planes in the air


Visibility of the ash cloud during a scientific test flight in Germany yesterday afternoon. Measurement results will be available soon

Present situation
Report wall street journal
Some European Airports Reopen Despite Caution

Report spiegel magazine
Europe Eases Flight Restrictions amid Fears of New Ash Cloud



Out to work. Have a nice day, everybody!
Update
Berlin - Germany extended Tuesday its partial ban on aviation for another six hours to 8 pm (1800 GMT) because of volcanic ash in the air, the air traffic control agency DFS said in Frankfurt.

However airlines have already resumed basic service from German airports by exploiting visual-flight rules (VFR). DFS confirmed that VFR flights were permitted. Its airspace ban only applies to aviation that relies purely on ground control and navigation instruments.

VFR flights operate at below 3,000 metres altitude in daylight and pilots must use their own radar and eyesight to avoid other planes.

However Berlin said earlier that air traffic controllers were in fact offering guidance to VFR flights.

On Monday alone, one airline, Air Berlin, operated 104 VFR flights out of German airports.

A major German package holiday company said it would repatriate 11,000 stranded German vacationers in the course of Tuesday aboard VFR flights.

At Frankfurt Airport, backlogged travellers were on their way out of Germany. At Lufthansa's check-in desks, a queue of passengers 100 metres long formed.

The airlines contend that the lower-altitude flights are safe, and defended their decision to sidestep the aviation ban. They said most of the ash blown over Germany from the Icelandic volcanic eruption was suspended in the air at higher altitudes.
Copyright DPA

I am curious to see if this volcano will change the weather for parts of the USA? Or, if it will change the hurricane pattern in one way or another?
522. IKE
I had .99 inches of rain yesterday...needed rain...inland...Florida panhandle.

1001 hours...
11 minutes and it starts....
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
While El Nino in the Pacific is waning, there is a time lag in the overall atmospheric response on the Atlantic so I'm wondering "when" the jet stream is going to retreat to the North and allow favorable conditions in the Gulf..This current El Nino pattern of persistent lows being ejected into the Gulf from the West (in April) is almost similar to the conditions in the late Fall when cold fronts/remnants are possible brewing grounds in the Gulf late in the season...Just trying to figure out where the first storm of the season might form this year and whether it might form the Gulf, rather than the Caribbean, if this general weather pattern for the Gulf is still around come later May early June when sheers dies down.....


It's already starting to shift, notice the 10's & 20's creeping up into the Atlantic, and the non-zonal flow. Surely not as zonal as it was just last week.

Quoting IKE:
I had .99 inches of rain yesterday...needed rain...inland...Florida panhandle.

1001 hours...
11 minutes and it starts....

Morning Ike, Glad to see you got your rain. Now you can breath easier.I myself got .27 yesterday. All is good, have a great day.
heart of the season is what worrys this character add another 1500 hrs of warming if the ash continues to be a problem there are a mess of half full ocean liners cruising around florida
Had some heavy thunderstorms in Orlando yesterday with some areas picking up 3" in a hour in Sumter County & Lake Counties. I expect the same today but the storms today maybe more intense producing hail and downburst winds as another disturbance moves in later today. Storms yesterday had lots of lightning so be careful outside as these storms can develope fast.

Picture from Apr 19th.
source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/43000/43693/Iceland_TMO_2010109.jpg
shuttle in de-orbit

florida east coasters- cross your fingers and perk up your ears...maybe about 45 minutes?
Quoting leftovers:
heart of the season is what worrys this character add another 1500 hrs of warming


88 to 92 degree temps should really speed up the process over the next several days around Florida. Expect another quick rise in ocean temps over the next several days as summertime heat really builds across Florida. Could see a 3 to 5 degree rise by next Monday around Florida.
Quoting aquak9:
shuttle in de-orbit

florida east coasters- cross your fingers and perk up your ears...maybe about 45 minutes?


Still foggy in Orlando.
532. P451
Quoting JRRP:
i wonder when do we will see the first Tropical Wave?

see you tomorrow


Usually in May. So I'd say another 20 days and we will see our first waves...or "almost waves".

I don't know if it's doing 237 or 238 de-orbit...gee I'm kinda dumb about these things

but we might get a boom boom
I hope those are the right maps...
link to NASA tv Link

Quoting aquak9:
I hope those are the right maps...


Those are right!

day 3 severe outlook
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

day 3 severe outlook


Stormchasers are going to be out in full force. This could be our first big tornado outbreak of the season.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Those are right!


maybe we both get BoomBoom?
morning Aqua Nasa has her coming in over MS
yeah I know, msgambler...I posted the wrong maps.

ah well...as long as they get home safely.
I hear ya... How is everyone this morning? Hope all are well. Anyone with rain please send my way
I got first dibs on the rain, msg...I'll send ya any leftovers I get.
Well, I see how you're gonna be this morning....lol
547. IKE
Quoting severstorm:

Morning Ike, Glad to see you got your rain. Now you can breath easier.I myself got .27 yesterday. All is good, have a great day.


Morning....yeah, I can breath easier:)
Good morning...

The sweet sound of the sonic BOOM!!! Welcome back !!!
Would not be surprised if El nino persist for a while. Region 3.4 may not fall to 0.0'C for a few months.
this site has some kind of virus, every now and again everything gets underlined and you cant use your curser to do stuff????
Quoting hurricane23:
Would not be surprised if El nino persist for a while. Region 3.4 may not fall to 0.0'C for a few months.


Actually that could be worse for the upcoming hurricane season.
We will be conducting a major test of the live hurricane webcam this coming Saturday starting at 1:00 PM Eastern Time.

There is a possibility that the test may be in conjunction with a tornado chase, weather and location permitting.

Otherwise, I'll have to find something else that is entertaining to watch.
When I pulled Firefox up today, it referenced that the java deployment toolkit plug in was a problem and disabled it. Not sure if that is related, but I have not viewed any of the symptoms that some have referenced.

From the Firefox site and the linked bug info from it.

Java Deployment Toolkit, versions 6.0.200.0 and older. Reason: security vulnerabilities (see bug 558584).

https://bugzilla.mozilla.org/show_bug.cgi?id=558584
School closed, hotel damaged as quake rocks Goldfields




THE Goldfields have been hit by possibly its largest ever earthquake ever this morning, closing the Kalgoorlie Super Pit, damaging buildings and burying a teenage girl under rubble.

Geoscience Australia spokesman Chris Thompson said the earthquake struck at 8.17am and had a magnitude of 5.

Seismologist David Jepsen said the quake was the largest to hit the area in 25 years and possibly the largest ever.
A Fire and Emergency Services Authority spokesperson said the Boulder area had been the worst affected, damaging five or six older hotels on Burt St including the Golden Eagle and RocK Hotel.
Kalgoorlie Inspector Craig Parkin said about 16 blocks in Boulder have been closed because of structural damage concerns to buildings.

He said police had established road blocks to ensure the public could not access areas considered potentially unsafe.

%u201CAt the moment the council is instigating its recovery plan to make sure the buildings are structurally sound.

%u201CThe time of day that it happened was just fortunate because the Golden Eagle Hotel on Boulder Road has lost its balcony and there are a couple of other pubs that have lost their walls.

A teenage receptionist at Goldfields Physiotherapy was knocked out after being buried under rubble when its roof collapsed.

Her manager and colleagues dug her out. She was unconscious but came around before paramedics arrived.

Burt and Lane St have been closed and FESA is warning people to avoid the area.

The earthquake forced the evacuation of Kalgoorlie%u2019s Super Pit, the largest gold open pit mine in Australia.

A Super Pit spokeswoman said workers were evacuated as a precautionary measure and workers had not suffered any injuries.

She said geotechnical assessors were undertaking preliminary investigations to determine if there had been any damage to facilities.

Residents told ABC local radio they feared their homes may fall down with one saying her family sheltered beneath door frames. Some said there had been aftershocks.

Two people from Boulder have been treated for minor injuries at Kalgoorlie Hospital but there have been no reports of serious injuries.

Several schools in the area have been damaged and schoolchildren evacuated

An Education Department spokesman said Boulder Primary School had been evacuated but is not closed after suffering damage during the earthquake.

Building damage at Kalgoorlie School of the Air was also reported. The school has also been closed for the day.

Administration staff at O'Connor Primary School were also forced to evacuate during the tremor due to building damage.

The Education Department spokesman said Kalgoorlie Primary School suffered little damage.

Mr Thompson said the earthquake was on the larger end of the scale for Australia.

Geoscience Australia seismologist David Jepsen said the quake hit about 10km southwest of Kalgoorlie and was fairly shallow.

``People in Kalgoorlie would have experienced strong shaking.

``We would expect people up to several hundred kilometres away would have felt it.''

Minor damage and toppling of items from shelves would be expected, Mr Jepsen said.

``This is the largest event in the last 25 years in this region and it might be the largest since we started recording,'' he said.

The quake was significantly larger than the mining explosions that regularly rocked the towns, Mr Jepsen said.

Aftershocks would be of much lower magnitude and should be of no concern, he said.

Lifelong Goldfields resident and Kalgoorlie-Boulder mayor Ron Yuryevich described the quake as %u201Cthe biggest one I%u2019ve ever experienced%u201D.

He said many historic buildings had suffered structural damage, including the 104-year-old Town Hall, which had one of its walls shifted in the quake.

%u201CI%u2019ve just come back from having a look at Burt St, which is where the major damage has been done,%u201D he said.

%u201CFirefighters are putting out a house fire just down from Burt St as we speak.

%u201CAll of the hotels in the area have been damaged, and many of the facades have simply fallen off and crashed to the ground.

%u201CSome historical people I%u2019ve spoken to are most distraught because they can see some of these buildings may have come to the end of their life following this event.%u201D

He described the latest report from ambulance officers that only two people had suffered minor injuries as %u201Can excellent result%u201D.

He said FESA and the local government had implemented an emergency plan and had evacuated and secured dangerous areas in the town.



Quoting rawson20:
this site has some kind of virus, every now and again everything gets underlined and you cant use your curser to do stuff????


What browser are you using?
Quoting rawson20:
this site has some kind of virus, every now and again everything gets underlined and you cant use your curser to do stuff????


Happened to me too. You just try to click some random spot and it takes you to an ad.
Quoting Floodman:


What browser are you using?


I'm on Safari and it is happening to me too.
Quoting skepticall2:


I'm on Safari and it is happening to me too.

I had this, this morning
The connection has timed out


The server at www.wunderground.com is taking too long to respond.

* The site could be temporarily unavailable or too busy. Try again in a few moments.
Quoting Floodman:


What browser are you using?

I have vista, and just have yahoo. me puter challenged
Quoting AussieStorm:

I had this, this morning
The connection has timed out


The server at www.wunderground.com is taking too long to respond.

* The site could be temporarily unavailable or too busy. Try again in a few moments.


this was happening to me yesterday (Firefox)...but not today...
Quoting presslord:


this was happening to me yesterday (Firefox)...but not today...


same here.. I thought it was me and reset my modem and router a bunch of times
NOAA Hurricane Team to Embark on Gulf Coast Awareness Tour
Public and Media Invited to Tour Hurricane Hunter Aircraft


NOAA hurricane experts will visit five Gulf Coast cities aboard a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft to raise awareness about storm threats and the danger of being caught without a personal hurricane plan. The five-day tour begins April 26.

Tour Schedule:
•Mon., April 26: Brownsville/S. Padre Intl. Airport, Brownsville, Texas, 3:00-5:00 p.m.
•Tue., April 27: Southeast Texas Regional Airport, Beaumont, Texas, 3:00-5:00 p.m.
•Wed., April 28: Baton Rouge Metropolitan Airport, Baton Rouge, La., 3:00-4:30 p.m.
•Thur., April 29: Pensacola Regional Airport, Pensacola, Fla., 2:30-4:30 p.m.
•Fri., April 30: Sarasota/Bradenton Intl. Airport, Sarasota, Fla., 2:30-4:30 p.m.
Quoting presslord:


this was happening to me yesterday (Firefox)...but not today...

My morning is your night?
Quoting AussieStorm:

I had this, this morning
The connection has timed out


The server at www.wunderground.com is taking too long to respond.

* The site could be temporarily unavailable or too busy. Try again in a few moments.


I'm actually get brought to an AD site. If i click but don't let go the letters on the screen all go read like I'm clicking a giant link.
Ok, on the History Channel this AM, it was stated that by 2010, now, China will be putting more pollutants into the air that cause GW than the USA.....

my question is this: Assuming manmade GW is true, how in the heck does the USA have any chance of combating it when China is like a snow ball rolling down hill?

Radar observations at the Eyjafjallaj%uFFFDl eruption site 15 April 2010
(If this is 'iforgottoeatmyyoghurt' I shudder to think what Katla looks like!)

Link

Great page, thanks Barbara!
I found this item from a few days ago that seems somewhat related to the Firefox warning I received today. The security sites are showing an elevated threat status. That is typical now days. Not sure how helpful this is, but here ya go :)

Wednesday April 14, 2010
Zero-Day Attack Against Java Web Start


Here is one of the comments below the article......


Posted by: Joe Holt
April 15, 2010 12:08 PM

Got nailed with an exploit of this a couple days ago. Most annoying thing it caused was internet search results being redirected to random advertising sites as well as attempting to download Aluveon trojan. Also, after checking a Sonicwall log there were over 100k hits on this Russian site: 117.135.137.117 in one day. This was a pain to clean off my system and standard AV and AM programs didn't do anything. Hopefully they patch this soon.
Agency: Record slow start to Spring severe weather

Forecasters from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, reported today that this has been the slowest start to the Spring severe weather season on record.
Quoting skepticall2:


I'm actually get brought to an AD site. If i click but don't let go the letters on the screen all go read like I'm clicking a giant link.
no problems here but iam a paid member no ads also ihave anti vrus anti spware ad blocker and ACTIVE SHIELD PROTECTION NOTHING GETS IN NOTHING
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Agency: Record slow start to Spring severe weather

Forecasters from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, reported today that this has been the slowest start to the Spring severe weather season on record.


We must do something to stop this climate change!!!! Springs are too boring now!!!

(Just kidding before I get hate mail...)
Clouds of ash from the Iceland volcano are forcing thousands of workers at farms near the Equator to down tools and robbing Kenya's flower and vegetable industry of $3 million per day.

The East African country freights 1,000 metric tons of roses, carnations, French beans, snap peas, and other produce daily on overnight flights to Europe. About 1/3 of the cut flowers sold in the European Union are grown in Kenya.

But the Kenyan, British, and Dutch airlines that fly from Nairobi have been grounded since Thursday, following flight bans due to risks to aircraft from volcanic ash spewing from Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull eruption.

IN PICTURES: Iceland volcano

Already $12 million worth of flowers and vegetables destined for European supermarkets have had to be destroyed or given away.

Jane Ngige, the chief executive of the Kenya Flower Council, estimated that $8 million worth of flowers had been wasted and would have to be composted.

"It's horrendous," she says. "There are batches at the airport that were due to fly last Thursday which have had to be destroyed, and there are farmers having to dump product on their farms."

Growers were investigating flying produce to Spain or northern Africa, and then loading it on trucks to be driven to suppliers, who are fast running out of stock.

"We handled drought, El Niño and post-election violence, but we've never seen anything like this," Stephen Mbithi, head of the Fresh Produce Exporters' Association of Kenya, told the Daily Nation, a Kenyan newspaper. more here
572. JRRP
The slow start to the spring tornadoes is just another way we're similar to 2005.. No worries, we'll make up for it with tornadoes from land falling storms.

I think I'm going to be a doomcaster this season:)
Quoting Ossqss:
I found this item from a few days ago that seems somewhat related to the Firefox warning I received today. The security sites are showing an elevated threat status. That is typical now days. Not sure how helpful this is, but here ya go :)

Wednesday April 14, 2010
Zero-Day Attack Against Java Web Start


Here is one of the comments below the article......


Posted by: Joe Holt
April 15, 2010 12:08 PM

Got nailed with an exploit of this a couple days ago. Most annoying thing it caused was internet search results being redirected to random advertising sites as well as attempting to download Aluveon trojan. Also, after checking a Sonicwall log there were over 100k hits on this Russian site: 117.135.137.117 in one day. This was a pain to clean off my system and standard AV and AM programs didn't do anything. Hopefully they patch this soon.


i got a trojan last week. very embarassing at my work when the MIS people learned I got it from trying to download a funny picture of a man in a kilt with nothing on underneath. i was doing it as a joke for someones birthday. was my face red. but first thing the virus did was disable my vipre software to kill it, so MIS reinstalled vipre and it got the virus. but if i had rebooted it would have been a huge mess.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no problems here but iam a paid member no ads also ihave anti vrus anti spware ad blocker and ACTIVE SHIELD PROTECTION NOTHING GETS IN NOTHING

It just random, it doesn't do it all the time,
I've had no problems. Firefox disabled the JAVA problem before I came in lastnight. I'm a member too. Any members seen the problem?
552 CycloneOz "We will be conducting a major test of the live hurricane webcam this coming Saturday...
...the test may be in conjunction with a tornado chase...
Otherwise, I'll have to find something else that is entertaining to watch.
"

I hope it's not an earthquake or volcanic eruption. Hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and volcanoes are so "been there and done that".
How about arranging for a major asteroid strike instead? Been awhile since the last one.
Quoting aspectre:
552 CycloneOz "We will be conducting a major test of the live hurricane webcam this coming Saturday...
...the test may be in conjunction with a tornado chase...
Otherwise, I'll have to find something else that is entertaining to watch.
"

I hope it's not an earthquake or volcanic eruption. Hurricanes, tornados, earthquakes, and volcanoes are so "been there and done that".
How about arranging for a major asteroid strike instead? Been awhile since the last one.


I'm having trouble right now finding any severe weather forecast in my part of the country for Saturday...

A meteor shower would be cool, but my webcam can't pick it up :P
Quoting CycloneOz:


I'm having trouble right now finding any severe weather forecast in my part of the country for Saturday...

A meteor shower would be cool, but my webcam can't pick it up :P


You could go rent a commercial pressure washer and pretend to cover a Hurricane.

Act like your being blown over by 25mph gusts like TWC.

Just joking BTW, lol.
Talking about Global Warming!!!!!!!
Quoting aspectre:
552 CycloneOz "We will be conducting a major test of the live hurricane webcam this coming Saturday...
...the test may be in conjunction with a tornado chase...
Otherwise, I'll have to find something else that is entertaining to watch.
"

I hope it's not an earthquake or volcanic eruption. Hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and volcanoes are so "been there and done that".
How about arranging for a major asteroid strike instead? Been awhile since the last one.
Quoting aspectre:
552 CycloneOz "We will be conducting a major test of the live hurricane webcam this coming Saturday...
...the test may be in conjunction with a tornado chase...
Otherwise, I'll have to find something else that is entertaining to watch.
"

I hope it's not an earthquake or volcanic eruption. Hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and volcanoes are so "been there and done that".
How about arranging for a major asteroid strike instead? Been awhile since the last one.
Quoting CycloneOz:


I'm having trouble right now finding any severe weather forecast in my part of the country for Saturday...

A meteor shower would be cool, but my webcam can't pick it up :P

Severe weather should be widespread in the S Plains on Th/Fr. Maybe a trip from NM into the Eastern TX Panhandle might be in order:

WITH THE GFS AND EURO SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...I FELT MORE CONFIDENT THIS MORNING IN THE SLOWER MOVING
POSITIVE TILTING LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD FAVOR A MORE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND A FASTER MOVING DRYLINE ON THURSDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW BACKED LL WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH ABUNDANT
SURFACE BASED CAPE. IF THIS SCENARIO COMES TOGETHER AS CURRENTLY
PROGGED...SUPER CELLS WILL BE IN THE CARDS. THINKING STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ANYWHERE EARLY ON THURSDAY...BUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE SITTING CLOSER TO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. SO DECIDED TO UP POPS INTO THE HIGH END CHANCE RANGE IN THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
AREA FOR SEVERE.

BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY...THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX WELL EAST INTO
OKLAHOMA ALONG WITH DRY SLOTTING ALOFT OVER THE PANHANDLES. FELT THE
SUB MENTIONABLE POPS WERE STILL VALID THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW POTENTIAL AREAS FOR CONCERN. THE FIRST
IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A STORM OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF SURFACE
MOISTURE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS LOW. ALSO...THE UPPER FLOW BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY WHICH HAS PROVIDED A FEW STORMS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH WE HAVE HAD BETTER LL MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH SITTING
IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT EITHER OF THESE TWO
SITUATIONS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK SO THE DRY FORECAST
REMAINS IN TACT. GENERALLY TRENDED NEAR GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE
FORECAST.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Severe weather should be widespread in the S Plains on Th/Fr. Maybe a trip from NM into the TX Panhandle might be in order:


Thursday and Friday are not good options for me, unfortunately.

I need Saturday...but from what I'm seeing, all that severe weather will have moved out of that area by then...and that's a pity...because I could get there pretty easily.

I used to live in Altus, OK...which is smack dab in that area predicted for severe weather.
nuthin'?
Quoting CycloneOz:


Thursday and Friday are not good options for me, unfortunately.

I need Saturday...but from what I'm seeing, all that severe weather will have moved out of that area by then...and that's a pity...because I could get there pretty easily.

I used to live in Altus, OK...which is smack dab in that area predicted for severe weather.

By Saturday, the Severe Weather threat will be in E TX, E OK, E KS, quite a drive from NM.
An article from the UK Meteorological Centre:

Science underpins ash cloud advice

Last updated: 1541 BST on Tuesday, 20 April 2010

Volcano


Eruptions from Eyjafjallajkull have continued overnight with debris being emitted up to 4 to 5 km for much of the time. Weather patterns continue to blow areas of ash towards the UK.

The Met Office uses multiple dispersion models endorsed by the international meteorological community. The output from the Met Office volcanic ash dispersion model has been compared with our neighbouring VAACs in Canada and France since the beginning of this incident and the results are consistent.

Our models are confirmed by observations which have seen ash in the UK and south of England. These include:

* Met Office and NERC aircraft have observed volcanic ash in UK airspace at varying heights.
* Multiple land observations have recorded ash in the skies across the UK, including across southern Britain.
* Balloon observations have shown a 600 m deep ash cloud at an altitude of 4 km across parts of the UK.

The Met Office is the north-west European Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre with responsibility for issuing the Volcanic Ash Advisories for volcanoes erupting in this area in line with internationally agreed standards and processes. This means the Met Office%u2019s role is to support NATS, CAA and other aviation authorities decision-making.

It is for the aviation industry and regulator to set thresholds for safe ash ingestion. Currently, world-wide advice from ICAO is based on engine and airframe manufacturers stating a zero tolerance to ash ingestion. This means that aircraft should not be exposed to any volcanic ash.

As the volcanic activity changes, there may be some clearance of ash at times, over parts of the UK. We will continue to provide timely advice to NATS to help them make the most of these windows of opportunity.

The Met Office is unable to advise of any details of any flights. However, many airlines are providing information on their websites.
Statement from the Iceland Met Office:


Articles < Seismicity < Icelandic Meteorological office

Go to site map.

Eruption in Iceland - frequently asked questions
Update on activity
Eruption in Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland
Current events
Deflation - 20 April 2010 13:30

Latest available results from GPS stations around Eyjafjallajökull showed deflation associated with the eruption. This suggested that the volume of eruptive material which has been ejected already, relieves pressure off the volcano.

No movements associated with the Katla volcano are presently observed.
Sound blasts - 20 April 2010 12:30

Heavy sound blasts have been heard and found near Eyjafjallajökull, especially south and east of the mountain, and more clearly after wind speeds became lower.

The viscosity of the magma from Eyjafjallajökull is higher than on Fimmvörðuháls. This enhances the explosive sound effect. Shock- and soundwaves are carried long distances.
Quoting Bordonaro:

We should be either in a "neutral" or a moderate La Nina for winter 2010-11.

Need to wait and see, this volcano, while wreaking havoc over Europe and parts of Asia, has not really emitted enough ash/sulfur dioxide yet to cool that atmosphere.

But, if Katla erupts, that may change.


...And if the Congo volcano blows it's top into the Stratosphere, you can guarantee a record cold Winter! It's closer to the Equator then Pinoto(Heck it's pretty much on it).
Quoting weatherbro:


...And if the Congo volcano blows it's top into the Stratosphere, you can guarantee a record cold Winter! It's closer to the Equator then Pinoto(Heck it's pretty much on it).

We as men/women on planet Earth already have a whole pile of problems. The last thing we need is a large eruption in the Congo, Iceland or anywhere else!! But you're correct, a large Congo eruption would cause a cold winter for several years.
Quoting Skyepony:
I've had no problems. Firefox disabled the JAVA problem before I came in lastnight. I'm a member too. Any members seen the problem?

My pc just showed the same thing, Java Toolkit.
For more info go here Link
Quoting weatherbro:


...And if the Congo volcano blows it's top into the Stratosphere, you can guarantee a record cold Winter! It's closer to the Equator then Pinoto(Heck it's pretty much on it).

Pinoto????? Do you mean Pinatubo?
I am hoping to climb up to the creator lake during my holiday this December.
This is what it did to the Earth's climate.
Not Pinatubo wrong area location.
Nasa satellite image five hours after the eruption began in 2002.
Mount Nyiragongo in the Democratic Republic of Congo is one of Africa's most active volcanoes.

The volcano, one of eight along the borders of Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, has a long history of activity.
GFS long range still shows a system in the SW Caribbean around May 5th this time around

Of course it could mean nothing
The USGS world Earthquake map is eerily quiet today!
Nino 3.4 now down to .5

We should hit the neutral threshold sometime this week.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
GFS long range still shows a system in the SW Caribbean around May 5th this time around

Of course it could mean nothing

The ITCZ has been very active, so it would not be a bid surprise if a Tropical Wave develops in the Caribbean region :o).
ITCZ took a little dive south the last few days. Mostly laying on the equator..
Thunderstorms are getting ready to erupt in C FL. Very tall building clouds here. This is because of -12 to -13 temps in the mid levels.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Thunderstorms are getting ready to erupt in C FL. Very tall building clouds here. This is because of -12 to -13 temps in the mid levels.



Sea Breeze is starting to move in.
Quoting hurricane23:
Would not be surprised if El nino persist for a while. Region 3.4 may not fall to 0.0'C for a few months.


The Neutral number is +0.5C and its getting closer to that now at +0.8C.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Sea Breeze is starting to move in.


We saw a lot of action here yesterday. C and N FL look to get hit hard today.
Running my Avast Professional 4.6 Virus Scan, so far found one Trojan House Virus compliments of Google ads.

I thought my computer was acting strange.

And I also disabled the Java plug-in patch on my Firefox 3.6.3 browser, which is so much faster and efficient than IE8!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The Neutral number is +0.5C and its getting closer to that now at +0.8C.


The neutral number is a 3 month average that is between +.5 & -.5.. So even if we see 0 tomorrow it will still be some weeks before we are officially neutral.
hi everyone,

i'm looking at the web cam:

http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk/

does it look as though the ash is coming from another area? it looks like it's further back than before. i don't know, i could be wrong.
Quoting WaterWitch11:
hi everyone,

i'm looking at the web cam:

http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk/

does it look as though the ash is coming from another area? it looks like it's further back than before. i don't know, i could be wrong.

Ash is blowing in a slightly different direction today. Last night on the web-cams from you could see the glow of erupting magma.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Ash is blowing in a slightly different direction today. Last night on the web-cams from you could see the glow of erupting magma.


i know, i couldn't stop watching it! that's what i was basing it on, where i could see the glow last night. it just looks different today.
Hey guys I wonder when we will get our first Tropical Wave
Quoting WaterWitch11:


i know, i couldn't stop watching it! that's what i was basing it on, where i could see the glow last night. it just looks different today.

There are low and mid-level clouds blocking many of the summit views today. The Iceland Met and UK Met offices state today's eruption is generating an ash cloud up to about 15,000 feet today, pressure in decreasing as the magma is erupting out of the crater.

Although the intensity of the eruption has decreased somewhat, this can continue in various phases for up to a year.

Katla remains quiet, for the moment. The latest ash clouds will continue to affect portions of Europe until Friday. They expect SW winds as an area of L pressure approaches, temporarily sending the ash NE towards the N Pole.
There are still warm anomalies in the subsurface at El Nino 1-2 and 3 zones. But once those cool waters go to the surface, is over for El Nino.

Link
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys I wonder when we will get our first Tropical Wave

That's the $64,000 question! Maybe the beginning of May, per some of the latest computer model runs.
611. xcool
see i have ie8 noooproblem here 111
612. JRRP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys I wonder when we will get our first Tropical Wave

me hice esa misma pregunta ayer en la noche
Quoting xcool:
see i have ie8 noooproblem here 111

That is good, Xcool. I just find Firefox 3.6.3 is faster on my laptop, then IE8. I have used IE since I bought my first computer in the late 90's. I downloaded the Firefox browser as an experiment, then I deleted the IE8.

I guess it depends on the computer, and the features with it.
614. xcool
yeah /i tweak my ie8 make fast ...
Quoting xcool:
yeah /i tweak my ie8 make fast ...

Cool, how is your baby doing?
Since we have building thunderstorms in my local area at this time, I've decided to do my full test of the live hurricane webcam right now.

If you go to XtremeHurricanes.com and click the "Live Hurricane Webcam" button on the left, all you have to do is click the "play arrow" on the webcam to get it to go.

The chat room works...all you need is a username (no password required.)

And that's it! The webcam is up and running right now. I'm going to go for a walk in the woods and then get you a good shot of the city with thunderstorm action on the way.

Oz---
if thunderstorm season really gets cranking at the end of may where are the floridians going to put all that water
technical difficulty. When I put the backpack on, I pulled out the camera cable.

5 mintutes...and then it will work again...

Sorry.
Nino 3.4 down to .5

(Eyjafjoll)

Iceland

63.63 N, 19.62 W
summit elevation 1666 m
stratovolcano
Link

NICE BIG SNOW FLAKES TODAY IMAGE UP ON CAM 1
Quoting leftovers:
if thunderstorm season really gets cranking at the end of may where are the floridians going to put all that water


Just got back from NFL.. rivers swamps are high. Good bit of fence underwater already.
Thunderstorms are getting ready to erupt in C FL. Very tall building clouds here. This is because of -12 to -13 temps in the mid levels

2 hrs later and I don't see anything "erupting".
Okay...it looks like I'm on!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
(Eyjafjoll)

Iceland

63.63 N, 19.62 W
summit elevation 1666 m
stratovolcano
Link

NICE BIG SNOW FLAKES TODAY IMAGE UP ON CAM 1

KOTG, I saw that earlier, now the little "E" is shooting out plenty of steam from this web-cam.
625. xcool
Bordonaro .he good get big fast....
Quoting xcool:
Bordonaro .he good get big fast....

Treasure these moments, it won't be long before your baby will be asking you for $20 to buy a toy :o)!!
627. xcool
Cool With Me haha
Quoting leftovers:
if thunderstorm season really gets cranking at the end of may where are the floridians going to put all that water
Maybe we can use the excess to water our lawns or fill our pools instead o having restrictions.
Looks like this El Nino's all but done. Should be officially neutral by the end of next week.
Nino 3.4 down to 0.5, from 0.8 earlier in the week. El Nino's not going to persist,
at least its very unlikely. Right now the El Nino has been following the ENSO forecast.

Time for the WU "Daily Downpour" everyone :o).
616 CycloneOz "If you go to XtremeHurricanes.com and click the "Live Hurricane Webcam" button on the left...The webcam is up and running right now. I'm going to...get you a good shot of the city with thunderstorm action..."

I'm holding out for....................Tyrannosaurs Flying F-14s
On the "tsni fr rlfsfelli" web-cam, little "E" is smoking nicely:
Link

A nice little blob by Australia, Looks promising
Latest False Color Satellite from NE Europe:

Here you go Cyclone Oz:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0325
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...HIGH PLAINS OF SE CO...NE NM AND FAR WRN TX/OK
PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 201940Z - 202045Z

A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SE CO...NE NM AND THE FAR WRN OK/TX
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO LEE SFC TROUGH
AND WEAK CYCLOGENESIS NEAR PUB. RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY OVER THE FRONT RANGE...AND MORE
RECENTLY INTO SE CO AND NE NM. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WHERE A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS. LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO YIELD ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. VEERING
WIND PROFILE WILL YIELD 25-35 KT OF SFC-6 KM SHEAR PER AREA
VWP/PROFILER DATA...DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW. MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE MAY OCCASIONALLY BE OBSERVED WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON.

..ROGERS.. 04/20/2010
That's an amazing photo. Got to be the cover for the next printing of Dante's Inferno.
A beautiful Pt Cloudy Tuesday in Arlington, TX. It's 69F, low humidity with light winds. Our Pollen Count is near normal, although my eyes are itchy, itchy:
Good afternoon/evening from Germany. Long awaited results from the scientific test flight yesterday evening from German Aerospace Center (DLR) in Oberpfaffenhofen (don't be afraid, no volcano there that would force you to pronounce it, lol) seems to be out. Unfortunately the coverage is still only in the German, and I'm too tired to translate. Short version: With the LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) they detected layers from ash in certain hights (around 3km) mostly in southern and eastern Germany, but not very concentrated. In northern Germany they found nothing. Ashes seem to be gone.
Though there isn't a press release about the measurement results yet, the site from the Aerospace Center (in English) is quite interesting, including reports from the flight with Falcon 20E yesterday which may be informative for some of you.
http://www.dlr.de/en/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-3086/
Quoting barbamz:
Good afternoon/evening from Germany. Long awaited results from the scientific test flight yesterday evening from German Aerospace Center (DLR) in Oberpfaffenhofen (don't be afraid, no volcano there that would force you to pronounce it, lol) seems to be out. Unfortunately the coverage is still only in the German, and I'm too tired to translate. Short version: With the LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) they detected layers from ash in certain hights (around 3km) mostly in southern and eastern Germany, but not very concentrated. In northern Germany they found nothing. Ashes seem to be gone.
Though there isn't a press release about the measurement results yet, the site from the Aerospace Center (in English) is quite interesting, including reports from the flight with Falcon 20E yesterday which may be informative for some of you.
http://www.dlr.de/en/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-3086/

Thanks Barbara, looks like European air travel will slowly return to normal.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Thanks Barbara, looks like European air travel will slowly return to normal.


Hi, Bordo. *normal* plus some chaos I suppose. A woman in my neighborhood has a ticket for today to Croatia. She asked the airport whether she should go tomorrow or better wait until Thursday. Answer: She should go tomorrow. The chaos anyway would be the same one day later, lol.
The world wouldn't be normal without chaos
Quoting barbamz:


Hi, Bordo. *normal* plus some chaos I suppose. A woman in my neighborhood has a ticket for today to Croatia. She asked the airport whether she should go tomorrow or better wait until Thursday. Answer: She should go tomorrow. The chaos anyway would be the same one day later, lol.

I sure hope everyone arrives at their destinations safely. With about 15,000+ flights over Europe, I hope that none of them find "ash problems".

The Iceland Volcano web-cams have been obscured most of the day with clouds/snow. However, the volcano is still spewing ash, steam and magma. It appears, at least for the time being, that the eruption of magma and reduced amounts of ash/steam will continue.

It will be chaos over the skies of Europe for at least several days. Hopefully the Iceland volcano continues to cooperate. The Katla volcano remains quiet, no signs of activity, at least for the time being. The Iceland Meteorological Centre is watching everything very closely.
El nino continues of die, now at .5.
I got a lot of virus and trojan crud connected with windows xp defender (a fake virus site) Not sure where it came from, but was a pain to get rid of, kept deactivating my malwarebytes. But I got rid of it finally. Not sure where it came from.
Bord, you have this site? It's from vodaphone, which is being blocked from outside Iceland. Someone capturing it and posting. Adding it to list on my blog.

http://picasaweb.google.com/102175391233488315229
Quoting PcolaDan:
Bord, you have this site? It's from vodaphone, which is being blocked from outside Iceland. Someone capturing it and posting. Adding it to list on my blog.

http://picasaweb.google.com/102175391233488315229

Thanks :o)
Quoting PcolaDan:

Weird place for an earthquake!
Quoting Bordonaro:

Thanks :o)


Look at the difference in water between pictures 114 and 124. Lots of melt it looks like.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Weird place for an earthquake!


Kind of a bit east of where I thought they would feel the New Madrid fault. Wrong end of the state.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Look at the difference in water between pictures 114 and 124. Lots of melt it looks like.

I took a look at that, you're right, alot of glacial melt took place.

Tomorrow, the skies are supposed to clear, and we'll get a better idea of what the volcano is doing. It has been shrouded most of the afternoon.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Kind of a bit east of where I thought they would feel the New Madrid fault. Wrong end of the state.

There must be an ancient fault line there . There have been a number of quakes from 1990-present:
Quoting Bordonaro:

There must be an ancient fault line there . There have been a number of quakes from 1990-present:


Well there you go then... The earths crust has more cracks on it than an old cowboys skin.

AOI/XX/XL
MARK
12N/70W
Quoting PcolaDan:


Well there you go then... The earths crust has more cracks on it than an old cowboys skin.

It must be an ancient plate that helped to form the Appalachian mountains eons ago. As old as Floodman!
Wonder if Levi felt this little tremor:

mblor:
Some rain showers are building south of lake okeechobee and it looks like some rain is coming to palm beach county..
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

AOI/XX/XL
MARK
12N/70W


Looks like the Windward Islands may receive some more rain!!
Hey guys which hurricane for North Carolina was worse: Fran, Floyd, Bonnie, or Bertha?
For what it's worth, the GFS continues to indicate the formation of a broad area of low pressure that may coalesce into a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific or Southern Caribbean.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Looks like the Windward Islands may receive some more rain!!


Would be great, but models (GFS) don't show this.
Wow, it's mid-spring, Severe Weather is almost non-existent, the Earth is fairly quiet, except for the occasional tremblor and the Iceland Volcano, and almost all the WU bloggers aren't around?!?!?!
Quoting troy1993:
Hey guys which hurricane for North Carolina was worse: Fran, Floyd, Bonnie, or Bertha?

Floyd caused widespread flooding and flood damage throughout the state.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Wonder if Levi felt this little tremor:

mblor:


Nope....far too deep for anyone to feel.
GFS shows the upper level pattern becoming much more conducive for tropical cyclone development in late April and early May.

Quoting Drakoen:
For what it's worth, the GFS continues to indicate the formation of a broad area of low pressure that may coalesce into a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific or Southern Caribbean.


It really may be a pretty nice setup for such an event to occur during the first week of May.
An area of strong upward motion associated with the MJO is expected to be over the eastern Pacific and Caribbean during the first week of May.

Quoting Levi32:


Nope....far too deep for anyone to feel.

That is a good thing!
so is it likely that the volcano will effect this hurricane season?
670. xcool
looking at ecmwf..
Quoting xcool:
looking at ecmwf..


The Euro doesn't really have anything on the surface (only goes out to 240 hours though), but it does show the same reversal from troughing to ridging over the Caribbean, which is a much more favorable environment for tropical mischief.

Quoting all4hurricanes:

A nice little blob by Australia, Looks promising

That's actually Indonesia and not Australia.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
so is it likely that the volcano will effect this hurricane season?


No, it's not that kind of volcano. Katla could, but this one not so much. The ash wasn't blasted high enough.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
so is it likely that the volcano will effect this hurricane season?

At this current state of the Iceland eruption, probably not, as it is a relatively small eruption at the 65N parallel, prevailing winds will keep whatever aerosols that are present way up north, far away from the Tropics.

However, if there is a larger eruption, things may change, but at this moment, there is no sign that will occur.
Quoting Levi32:
An area of strong upward motion associated with the MJO is expected to be over the eastern Pacific and Caribbean during the first week of May.



Yes, it appears the GFS shows a broad monsoon gyre to develop, with the system following the advancement of the MJO eastward. Potentially our first true AOI if the GFS continues to be consistent.
hey bord...wouldn't a good rain storm just wash all that ash outa the sky?
677. xcool
The latest Nino and SOI data are showing that the CFS is playing catch up again, as it normally does, with major changes in Pacific signaling. I have long opined, and been trying to prove by forecasting first and then showing you, that this climate model is poor in its dynamics, only catching on to a change when its obvious. Like last years el nino, this is again late to the party with the change as the La Nina is coming on.

by joe.




\\\\
Quoting NRAamy:
hey bord...wouldn't a good rain storm just wash all that ash outa the sky?

Most of the ash is being dispersed around Europe and parts of Russia, A big Low pressure area would help wash a good part of the ash out of the sky.
Quoting Levi32:


No, it's not that kind of volcano. Katla could, but this one not so much. The ash wasn't blasted high enough.


Thanks Levi!

african sat image

nice spot on the sun
681. xcool
hmmmm ts by GFS 50 mph lmao.
One thing to note is that the GFS and GEFS largely disagree on the upcoming upward motion of the MJO. The GFS shows a very strong MJO upward motion while the GEFS hardly shows the signal at all.

Quoting Drakoen:
One thing to note is that the GFS and GEFS largely disagree on the upcoming upward motion of the MJO. The GFS shows a very strong MJO upward motion while the GEFS hardly shows the signal at all.



They have been strongly disagreeing all winter long due to the El Nino, at least during the times when I actually checked. To me the GFS makes a bit more sense because the Kelvin Wave currently moving across the eastern Pacific argues for upward motion near central America around that time.
684. xcool



not much....
Quoting Drakoen:
For what it's worth, the GFS continues to indicate the formation of a broad area of low pressure that may coalesce into a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific or Southern Caribbean.
Models in the early season like to spin things up in the SW Caribbean, but it usually turns out that the indicated storm forms in the EPAC. I've noticed this over the past few years.
Quoting NRAamy:
hey bord...wouldn't a good rain storm just wash all that ash outa the sky?



Hiya Amy
A good rain would indeed wash the ash away provided the rain level starts above the ash. Believe it or not though, with enough ash it can basically rain mud. A good rain is the best way to clear the air of the smallest ash that may still remain after the main ash events passes.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Models in the early season like to spin things up in the SW Caribbean, but it usually turns out that the indicated storm forms in the EPAC. I've noticed this over the past few years.


That's true, since the east Pacific is climatologically favored early-on, but upper-level conditions are forecasted to be favorable over both areas, so there is as much of a chance for Caribbean mischief as EPAC mischief.
Quoting Drakoen:
One thing to note is that the GFS and GEFS largely disagree on the upcoming upward motion of the MJO. The GFS shows a very strong MJO upward motion while the GEFS hardly shows the signal at all.



From what each forecast a week ago GEFS was more right but neither really had a handle on it.
Quoting Levi32:


That's true, since the east Pacific is climatologically favored early-on, but upper-level conditions are forecasted to be favorable over both areas, so there is as much of a chance for Caribbean mischief as EPAC mischief.


Or maybe 2 systems form, one in each basin?
Quoting Skyepony:


From what each forecast a week ago GEFS was more right but neither really had a handle on it.


That is true:

I'm glad we're finally talking about the tropics again on the blog. It's interesting to talk about the volcano that erupted as well as when a big quake hits, but sheesh, thats all this blog has been talking about lately. 3.5 earthquakes in rural areas frankly shouldn't be talked about more than the tropics.

Just my two cents fellas :)
692. JRRP

mmmmm less dust
Well, let's talk about law suits then. Just kidding. No, really.

Edit: Ummm, here's another link unrelated to the first.
CycloneOz was going to check out his new camera, tracking storms is NM. Too bad he couldn't "storm chase", he missed his chance to catch a Tornado currently on the ground in the western TX Panhandle.
91S
91S is looking quite healthy.
TORNADO WARNING
TXC375-381-210045-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0002.100421T0022Z-100421T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
722 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN POTTER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
NORTHWESTERN RANDALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 720 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE
MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BUSHLAND...OR
ABOUT 15 MILES WEST OF AMARILLO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BUSHLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED!
TAKE COVER IN A STURDY BUILDING NOW.
MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES ARE NOT SAFE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

Quoting Drakoen:
One thing to note is that the GFS and GEFS largely disagree on the upcoming upward motion of the MJO. The GFS shows a very strong MJO upward motion while the GEFS hardly shows the signal at all.



ECMWF is closest to the GEFS


Quoting Bordonaro:
CycloneOz was going to check out his new camera, tracking storms is NM. Too bad he couldn't "storm chase", he missed his chance to catch a Tornado currently on the ground in the western TX Panhandle.


wow, thats a beaut of a supercell
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


wow, thats a beaut of a supercell

The cell has weakened, Jim Cantore at TWC has been watching it, a large tornado was spotted about 5 miles west of the town of Bushland, TX. To make matters worse, it was "rain wrapped".
Here's some cool pics of volcano lightning.
Trade winds have been weakening over the past 10 days over the Atlantic and are once again well-below normal in the eastern MDR.



Pardon me if this has already been posted.
Good evening, all. Now that I know there's the possibility (at least according to the models, though obviously, the probability of such actually occurring is another matter entirely) of a tropical cyclone in the SW Caribbean, along with an increase in moisture, associated with the MJO, I'll begin lurking more often.

More importantly, I've also been taking a look at the computer models ever since this time yesterday, and the GFS is hinting at a significant relaxation of the vertical shear during the final days of this month.
Good Evening......Steady drizzle in Tallahassee area now for about the last two hours...Have heard a few rumbles of thunder in the distance but no wind at all in my parts North of town whatsoever.....Basically a quiet tropical like drizzle with slightly cooler temps overnight.....We really needed the rain to wash away the heavy pollen blanketing everything; guess it will be time to break out the lawnmower this weekend.
Tornado on the ground just west of Canyon, TX:


Basically no damage, no injuries, traveling over open grasslands per NWS Amarillo rep on the line with TWC.

TORNADO WARNING
TXC381-210115-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0003.100421T0048Z-100421T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
748 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN RANDALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 745 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE
MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR UMBARGER...OR
ABOUT 9 MILES WEST OF CANYON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE UMBARGER...
CANYON AND BUFFALO LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME...TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES
AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

That is one wicked looking cell to the South of Amarillo...
Quoting Bordonaro:
Tornado on the ground just west of Canyon, TX:

TORNADO WARNING
TXC381-210115-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0003.100421T0048Z-100421T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
748 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN RANDALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 745 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE
MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR UMBARGER...OR
ABOUT 9 MILES WEST OF CANYON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE UMBARGER...
CANYON AND BUFFALO LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME...TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES
AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
That is one wicked looking cell to the South of Amarillo...

It has just produced its second tornado. It is traveling toward a small town named Canyon, TX.

The supercell thunderstorm keeps pulsing, strengthening, dropping a tornado. Then it weakens, then strengthens again, dropping its second confirmed tornado.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
759 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2010

TXC381-210115-
/O.CON.KAMA.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100421T0115Z/
RANDALL TX-
759 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
RANDALL COUNTY...

AT 754 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR
UMBARGER...OR ABOUT 7 MILES WEST OF CANYON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
UMBARGER...
CANYON...
BUFFALO LAKE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW. IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
813 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL RANDALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 811 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.
THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CANYON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CANYON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME...TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES
AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.
what does -35 shear mean?
Quoting all4hurricanes:
what does -35 shear mean?


That's an anomaly....means wind shear is 35 knots below normal in that area.
Quoting Levi32:


That's an anomaly....means wind shear is 35 knots below normal in that area.


CFS has verified quite nicely in that department
There was a Mesoscale Discussion earlier today concerning the isolated tornado threat. Nothing recently.

Minor damage reports from areas near Canyon, TX.
I've been saving loops of that storm Pat.. powerfil cell in there.





#718, awesome loop of the tornado producing supercell. Thankfully that area of the TX Panhandle is very sparsely populated!
Quoting Drakoen:


CFS has verified quite nicely in that department


Yes it has. The CFS forecasts the low wind shear anomalies to gradually expand westward to encompass the entire Caribbean as we head into the hurricane season.

Quoting bappit:


Pardon me if this has already been posted.


that's the first time i have seen it. can you post the link? thanks!


latest as storm dives se e
Quoting Levi32:
Quoting Levi32:
Quoting Levi32:

Where do you get those SST charts? Could you also provide a link for it? THX. :)
Quoting Snowlover123:

Where do you get those SST charts? Could you also provide a link for it? THX. :)


Link is on the image....lol. Link
Quoting Drakoen:
For what it's worth, the GFS continues to indicate the formation of a broad area of low pressure that may coalesce into a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific or Southern Caribbean.

R U kidding me?!
Is this unprecedented this early in the season?
Oopsie... :0
yeah indianrivguy,I spect were gonna see some Storm reports soon on than Cell and Cluster.
Quoting Chicklit:

R U kidding me?!
Is this unprecedented this early in the season?

There have actually been storms in the Eastern Pacific that have formed during the winter months, so it's not totally unprecedented, but certainly rare.
Quoting Chicklit:

R U kidding me?!
Is this unprecedented this early in the season?


Keep in mind that we've had a named storm form in May for the last 3 years in a row. It is not uncommon for the first blob to watch to occur in May. If the trends on the models hold true, then the pattern could become conducive to allow something to try to form in the Caribbean during next month. If something forms in the eastern Pacific, it won't be that surprising, as their season starts earlier on May 15th.
Quoting Chicklit:

R U kidding me?!
Is this unprecedented this early in the season?
both the pacific and atlantic is primed and ready in all likly hood the epac should fire up first as this devs it is possible cross over system is typical this early in the season as things are still feeling themselves out
Quoting Levi32:


Yes it has. The CFS forecasts the low wind shear anomalies to gradually expand westward to encompass the entire Caribbean as we head into the hurricane season.



You don't find the band of anomalously strong upper level winds in the Gulf Of Mexico that extends out into the Sub-Tropical Atlantic strange since we should be in a La Nina by that time?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


latest as storm dives se e

It also looks like the storm is starting to weaken substantially as well.
Quoting Snowlover123:

It also looks like the storm is starting to weaken substantially as well.
yep and rebuilding to the sw in the rain
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yep and rebuilding to the sw in the rain

The threat is changing, from rotating supercell/tornado development to a squall line, straight-line winds > 50MH, heavy rain, golf-ball sized hail.
Quoting SevereHurricane:


You don't find the band of strong upper level winds in the Gulf Of Mexico and off the East Coast strange since we should be in a La Nina by that time?


The reason the CFS is showing that is the same reason why it has a cold summer over most of the central-eastern US. I don't believe that will verify, and the shear should be weaker close to the coast than the CFS currently thinks. However, having low shear in the MDR and higher-than-normal shear overall near the coast is still very dangerous. With many storms forming in the tropics, it only takes a few breaks in the shear barrier to allow one or more major hurricanes to come up to the north and hit the US.
Quoting Chicklit:

R U kidding me?!
Is this unprecedented this early in the season?


Nope lol! It's only the GFS showing this so more model support is necessary.
Quoting Drakoen:


CFS has verified quite nicely in that department


It may also verify the crash in Global Temps, that it's forecasting for the fall-winter 2010-2011.
Quoting Snowlover123:


It may also verify the crash in Global Temps, that it's forecasting for the fall-winter 2010-2011.


Oh you can bet on that.
Quoting Drakoen:


Nope lol! It's only the GFS showing this so more model support is necessary.


It will take a while to get that as the GFS is the only model we have that goes out past 240 hours. For now it's just another blip on the long-range GFS that is indicating that the conditions may be there for mischief during the first week of May.
Quoting Levi32:


Oh you can bet on that.
after this winter some people may not like that
In today's severe weather outbreak, how many tornados touched down?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
after this winter some people may not like that


If the CFS is right about the upcoming change in Global Temps, I may have another 80 inches of snow next winter! Yea!
Quoting Levi32:


The reason the CFS is showing that is the same reason why it has a cold summer over most of the central-eastern US. I don't believe that will verify, and the shear should be weaker close to the coast than the CFS currently thinks. However, having low shear in the MDR and higher-than-normal shear overall near the coast is still very dangerous. With many storms forming in the tropics, it only takes a few breaks in the shear barrier to allow one or more major hurricanes to come up to the north and hit the US.


Thanks, Levi.
Quoting Snowlover123:
In today's severe weather outbreak, how many tornados touched down?


None so far.

Quoting Snowlover123:


If the CFS is right about the upcoming change in Global Temps, I may have another 80 inches of snow next winter! Yea!


Well....next winter will be nothing like this winter was for the eastern half of the US. Nowhere near as cold.
Quoting Levi32:


None so far.


Weather Channel... oh boy they said there were so many twisters that touched town. I guess they were wrong. THX Levi.
I have to go now. Goodnight everybody.
Quoting Snowlover123:

Weather Channel... oh boy they said there were so many twisters that touched town. I guess they were wrong. THX Levi.


Some may still be reported from some of the cells they were tracking. It can take a couple hours for some tornado reports to get to the SPC map.
Quoting Levi32:


Some may still be reported from some of the cells they were tracking. It can take a couple hours for some tornado reports to get to the SPC map.

The NWS Amarillo, TX office will send out a 2 meteorologists to the field to confirm whether there was 1 or 2+ tornadoes, per Sarah Johnson from NWS Amarillo :o)!
There is a very strong storm moving my way right now in Apopka. There very frequent cloud to groung lightning going on and there maybe some hail in this storm. The storm is due SW of me right now.
Quoting Jeff9641:
There is a very strong storm moving my way right now in Apopka. There very frequent cloud to groung lightning going on and there maybe some hail in this storm. The storm is due SW of me right now.

Hopefully everything will be ok, just a good thunderstorm and nothing else.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Hopefully everything will be ok, just a good thunderstorm and nothing else.


There is a tremendous amount of lightning right now and now the storm is about 15 to 20 minutes from me. Other storms are beginning to erupt around Tampa. It has already pour once a couple hours ago.
Quoting Levi32:


Well....next winter will be nothing like this winter was for the eastern half of the US. Nowhere near as cold.


Do ya think so? I often wonder how we code in the models for anomalies. Earthquakes, Volcano's, Comets being absorbed by the sun, the connections etc., must be hard to understand. They all do play in our arena, if you will.

The P wave item we viewed from the earthquake in Chile was interesting to watch with respect to the influence on the lakes near NOLA and the readings from the Tsunami warning buoy's in the Pacific.

We learn everyday! That's a good thing :)
Quoting Jeff9641:


There is a tremendous amount of lightning right now and now the storm is about 15 to 20 minutes from me. Other storms are beginning to erupt around Tampa. It has already pour once a couple hours ago.

Sounds like the thunderstorms I remember from growing up in Long Island, NY. Energy releases in the atmosphere in the NE US involve heavy rain, lightning and thunder galore.

The t-storms in the S Plains and Midwest are wind producers, hail, and the infamous tornadoes.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Sounds like the thunderstorms I remember from growing up in Long Island, NY. Energy releases in the atmosphere in the NE US involve heavy rain, lightning and thunder galore.

The t-storms in the S Plains and Midwest are wind producers, hail, and the infamous tornadoes.


Nickle size hail was just reported in windermere just SW of me. Lightning is becoming more and more frequent.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Nickle size hail was just reported in windermere just SW of me. Lightning is becoming more and more frequent.

Nothing Severe here!!
Quoting Ossqss:


Do ya think so? I often wonder how we oode oode in the models for anomalies. Earthquakes, Volcano's, Comets being absorbed by the sun, the connections etc., must be hard to understand. They all do play in our arena, if you will.

The P wave item we viewed from the earthquake in Chile was interesting to watch with respect to the influence on the lakes near NOLA and the readings from the Tsunami warning buoy's in the Pacific.

We learn everyday! That's a good thing :)


Indeed I do. It could actually end up considerably warmer than normal for much of the southern US.

And yeah, it is definitely intriguing to wonder about how all these things fit together.
"WSI raises 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast"
Link
765. JRRP



well see you tomorrow
767. xcool
16-7-4 just like my nunmber wow




Our model suggests that the threat to the Northeast coast this season is on par with that in Florida and the Gulf coastal states," Crawford said .by WSI wowwww
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



I just recieved pea sized hail and it is raining like crazy right now. It hailed for about a minute.
WSI raises 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

NEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) - Private weather forecaster WSI on Tuesday raised its forecast for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for 16 named storms, nine hurricanes and five intense hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.

"The primary drivers for tropical activity have reversed course this year and the stage appears to be set for a very busy season in 2010," WSI seasonal forecaster Todd Crawford said.

The coastal region from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to Maine is twice as likely as normal to experience a hurricane this year, according to WSI.

"Our model suggests that the threat to the Northeast coast this season is on par with that in Florida and the Gulf coastal states," Crawford said.

Last year was the quietest tropical season since 1997 due to an El Nino event and relatively cool tropical Atlantic waters, but El Nino events tend to be followed by more activity, WSI said.

This year, another factor that increases the likelihood of storms, warmer Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are also in place.

"Eastern and central tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at record warm levels for April, even warmer than the freakishly active season of 2005," Crawford said.

The current forecast numbers are more likely to be adjusted upwards rather than downwards as the season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, approaches, Crawford said.

The 2010 forecast numbers are well above the long-term average for 1950-2009 of 10 named storms, six hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes, but below the average from the more recent 15-year period of 14 names storms, eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes.

(Reporting by Rebekah Kebede; Editing by David Gregorio)
770. xcool
Create a hurricane plan That's all I have to say about that...
Greetings.
Another hot one here today, peaked at 96.8f at the airport (no, the guage is not on the paved runway).
But the showers over the past few days seem to have put out the fires. Nice clear night right now.
1.42" in 8 minutes and it's still pouring. This puts me over 20" for the year already.
april 19 2010 and 2005 compare map sst's

774. xcool
very close 2010 too 2005
Hi Keeper. You think we will get any hurricanes this year anywhere, Bud, Sir?
heheheheh
Quoting xcool:
very close 2010 too 2005

Except it is warmer this year...
Very strong thunderstorms with small hail blowing up over C FL right now as upper level energy hits our warm moist atmosphere.
way above friend and thats all i have to say about that 2010 is on left or first 09 follows way more red dark red in 2010
The anomalies for 2010 and 2005 are eerily similar. 2005 is now the most similar SST profile analog we have. 1998 is the 2nd closest.

April 10th 2005 SST Anomalies:




April 10th 2010 SST Anomalies:


Quoting pottery:

Except it is warmer this year...


It supposed to crack 90 in Orlando this weekend for the first time this year.
Oh lordy JFV is almost looking respectable ;)
Quoting Jeff9641:


It supposed to crack 90 in Orlando this weekend for the first time this year.

Well enjoy the "cool weather" while it lasts. Gonna be a hundred in a few...
LOL GAGuy.
How are you faring?
784. xcool
will not Surprise Me if we twenty storm name .imo...
forty days and forty nights
remain till the madness lets loose
evening pottery or i should say top of the morning to ya

there could be quite a few
We may get a little rain, which will be good. April has been dry

Ya know the previous three norm to above norm cane forecasts I said uhoh be warned and didnt see any alarms.
This year ?????
I am properly warned.
Properly prepared!
Properly understand the variables.
Be prepared.
Be informed.
Have a plan!
Otherwise snack on the leftovers come late Nov!
I'm about to get nailed again. Storms are forming all over C FL at this late hour.
BTW
The cloud skyline to the East was very typical early formation of sea breeze rainy pattern.
But the wind from the East was not strong enough to push the sea breeze storms to the coast.
The storms just sputtered and died out as the cool sea breeze pushed inland.
I have never witnessed a wet dry season as we have had this year.
Can we do the same next year without the cold?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



I live right on the Orange Seminole county line and that purple went right over me and as it did I had pea size hail for about a minute.
#762
That radar does not even come close to the beautiful vertical cloud formations that were forming today.
That visual is a comforting sight that is welcome this early in the season.
Wish you could see them.
The sea breeze line is just a thing to behold.
Quoting pottery:
Greetings.
Another hot one here today, peaked at 96.8f at the airport (no, the guage is not on the paved runway).
But the showers over the past few days seem to have put out the fires. Nice clear night right now.

Good to hear about the fires Pottery. No mud slides? Good luck!
Jeff9
Looks like you got what formed over us on the West!
Quoting spathy:
Jeff9
Looks like you got what formed over us on the West!


Yeah, all of this built into Orlando from the West coast seabreeze.
Windemere has had over 5" in the last 6 hours I've had over 2" in the last 2 hours and it's pouring again.
Jeff
Yup!
Quoting spathy:
Jeff
Yup!


There are more thunderstorms about to move in from the GULF.
spathy!!! I need help on your bog!
this year is going to go nuts on this blog
we may see are 1st storm in mid May
#798
I see them.
They are not part of the afternoon heat collision that helped create what has moved over to your area.
You may be a little/way north of what I saw today but the storms up there are still struggling to move East at the base while being blown off the top to the East quickly.
Thats convergence.
Just not quite classic.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Forecast for area south of 10S between 90E-125E
2:00 PM WST April 21 2009
=====================================

There is a developing low in the monsoon trough south of Indonesia near 10S 117E. This low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone late on Thursday or on Friday as it moves to the southwest. It is not expected to affect Christmas or Cocos Islands or the Australian mainland.

There are no other significant systems in the outlook area.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
Thursday: Moderate
Friday: Moderate
Saturday: High
804. xcool
crazy blog 2010 comesoon
little thunderstorm this early morning light rain some heavier nearby good morning
Quoting Tazmanian:
we may see are 1st storm in mid May
the odds say we wont though taz
morning
the start of the tropical wave train in may could tell us how the season will unfold for the MDR. This all depends on how strong these waves exit the african coast and how long they mentain their identity and strengh
808. IKE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT WED APR 21 2010

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT A LARGE UPPER SYSTEM EWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. WITH TIME...WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING/DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM PROGGED. AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO OPEN/WEAKEN -- PARTICULARLY FROM DAY 5 /SUN. APR. 25/
ONWARD...MODEL AGREEMENT SLOWLY DECREASES AS WELL. WHILE ENHANCED
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. UNTIL THE
MAIN SURFACE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE ON OR AROUND DAY 7 /TUE. APR.
27/...CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION DECREASES
STEADILY INTO THE PERIOD.

ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN AN OUTLOOK AREA CENTERED INVOF THE MID AND
LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS DAY 4 /SAT. APR. 24/...AS A STRONGER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND MOIST/LIKELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY.

AGAIN -- WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT STEADILY EWD
WITH TIME DAYS 5-6-7...MODEL DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE HIGHLIGHTING
SPECIFIC THREAT AREAS BEYOND DAY 4.

..GOSS.. 04/21/2010
Quoting stoormfury:
morning
the start of the tropical wave train in may could tell us how the season will unfold for the MDR. This all depends on how strong these waves exit the african coast and how long they mentain their identity and strengh
That is a good point. The water is so warm there we may even have a early season Cape Verde type storm.
I picked up 2.7" last night in Longwood,FL. Some areas south of me in Windemere picked up 4" as heavy thunderstorms trained across our area all night. Even had pea size hail at 11.45pm for about a minute.
With last night's rain I've recieved 21" so far for the year OIA has had near 19" for the year. These totals are extremely amazing considering this is supposed to be our dry season. I hope this keeps up!!
Good Morning.
Gentle showers this morning. Going to be another hot, Humid one.
96.8f yesterday.
Out ....
813. IKE
I had .60 inches of rain yesterday. 1.59 the last 2 days.

Sunny weather returns today....warmer tomorrow and Friday...chances of rain over the weekend.
Quoting IKE:
I had .60 inches of rain yesterday. 1.59 the last 2 days.

Sunny weather returns today....warmer tomorrow and Friday...chances of rain over the weekend.


I have not had a drop here. Still bone dry.
Quoting IKE:
I had .60 inches of rain yesterday. 1.59 the last 2 days.

Sunny weather returns today....warmer tomorrow and Friday...chances of rain over the weekend.


I'm glad you guys are getting rain too and it looks like a significant rain event is looming for Florida later this weekend
Quoting PcolaDan:


I have not had a drop here. Still bone dry.


C and S FL have been getting rain daily now and more may come this afternoon as our seabreeze fronts get active.
g'morning ya'll. Another dry fetch. :(
818. IKE
Quoting PcolaDan:


I have not had a drop here. Still bone dry.


The system this weekend should break your dry spell.
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning ya'll. Another dry fetch. :(


THere was a lot of rain at my house on Seminole Orange County line. You should have gotten some good rain too as there was rain everywhere at about 1am.
day 2 day 3 severe outlook

Sorry jeffs..as Ike willtell ya, CoCoRAHS don't lie. No rain.
Quoting Jeff9641:


C and S FL have been getting rain daily now and more may come this afternoon as our seabreeze fronts get active.


The mean date of the start of the rainy season across southeast florida is May 20, so we probably beginning the transition period. We got very little lightning from the activity yesterday, which means that it's still too early. I'm not sure if whatever is left of El Niño will have an impact on the start of the rainy season. Past starts in El Niño years has varied some, so no clear signal from what I can tell.
New Blog
Looks like it is erupting again. Still stuck in Toronto but have now got a flight on the 24th instead of the 27th. Link